Open Thread 180: New Ukraine Thread
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Discussion continues at the next Open Thread.
Please note that I am no longer involved in any capacity with this blog, which is henceforth known as the Russian Reaction Community. It will presumably be maintained at The Unz Review for as long as demand for it exists.
As I mentioned before, all my “serious” commentary on Russia/Ukraine and other topics is on Twitter and Substack.
Follow @akarlin0
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Geography and distance determine the physical environment in which a conflict is fought. Strategic depth refers to the distance from the location in which battle is occurring, to a combatant’s key political, economic, and military centers. Having greater strategic depth allows a combatant to protect or distribute key assets and targets from an opposing force’s attacks, as well as greater flexibility to withdraw from unfavorable engagements backwards to relative safety, where forces can regroup and maneuver. Strategic depth also allows a combatant to keep key bases, C4ISR and logistics nodes away from the “front” and further away from relative danger.
The ROCArF suffers an unenviable situation where the geography of Taiwan offers very limited strategic depth in the face of contemporary PLA strike capabilities. Coupled with the close proximity of Taiwan as an island from the Chinese mainland, this means the entirety of Taiwan is well within range of the shortest ranged Chinese SRBMs in service, even when deployed kilometers inside China’s territory. The short distance and limited strategic depth of Taiwan also enables PLA aircraft to conduct longer endurance sorties for combat or ISR missions.
Recent so-called “encirclement flights” made by PLAAF bombers around Taiwan have suggested that the PLA now has the ability to strike Taiwan from multiple directions; however, the PLA has likely possessed this capability since the first DF-10 and KD-20 LACMs entered service a decade ago. During a conflict the PLA would not require superfluous bomber flights around Taiwan given the range and sophistication of even older LACMs.
Moreover, striking Taiwan from multiple directions is arguably less strategically important than being able to strike at all relevant facilities within Taiwan at virtually no risk. In short, Taiwan’s limited strategic depth increases the vulnerability of all of its major military facilities, as well as political and economic centers. Conversely, China enjoys substantially greater strategic depth in the form of the Chinese mainland, with associated benefits in survivability.
Can somebody please explain what happened to the pronunciation of Kiev on television and radio? Is this something one had to go their company diversity training meeting and see the powerpoint slide to get the message relatively ungarbled?
I heard Mark Ames using the new one on his podcast. I thought being not PC was part of his schtick and I am totally confused.
Really there are only two words in the dictionary that require correct pronunciation in my universe. Actually only one. The only one is data. In extremely distant second place is gif.
Am I crazy, or is Putin’s decision to bring in Syrian mercenaries the worst thing he could do from an optics point of view – I mean, it suggests that the Russian army can’t get the job done and he has to bring in foreign mercenaries, and not just foreign fighters, but not particularly good ones from a third world country.
It’s embarrassing. Russia is supposed to be this overwhelmingly strong power that has just modernized it’s army etc etc. I’m sure the Syrian fighters will get chewed up in Ukraine – but still, it looks so bad for Putin.
And then the whole let’s bring Muslims to kill fellow white Christians – my God, how much worse can it get from an optics point of view.
Of course, the alt-right won’t reconsider their support for Putin and Muslims killing white Christians, but we know by now that the alt-right is just another flavor of post-modern nihilistic decadence, and not in any way pro-West, so that’s no surprise.
It’s noteworthy that the foreign fighters Ukraine is getting are not mercenaries but volunteers, and not from a foreign civilizational sphere. But for Russia to need to bring in foreign mercenaries is so cringe – that’s not the look you want.
Anyways, why do the Russians seem to be doing literally everything so terribly from an optics point of view, down to their propoganda – as I said before, showing respect for Ukrainian bravery would actually look so much better than calling it things like “fanatical resistance” that must be punished etc, as Karlin does.
What all this suggests to me is that something about the “mental space” occupied by Russia’s leaders and their supporters is very weird and unique, and involves a kind of blindness that can’t see very basic things and is insulated from reality in a weird way.
I don’t think they are being illogical, but obeying a different logic according to a different set of values, where all that matters is power, for instance, and the bad look of needing shoddy, cheap mercenaries to win for you doesn’t matter because your success means you’re “powerful” or something, etc etc.
When I stop to think of it, really the whole way Russia and it’s supporters talk about this war is deeply weird – Karlins “fanatical resistance”. I mean, what? It’s a war, of course they’ll fight back. This is bad? And the whole manipulation thing, the whole we’ll force you to be our brothers thing…
This language can only occur in a weird post-modern setting like ours, and moreover is the language of psychopathic manipulation that is so characteristic of our times.
One yearns for a good clean war out in the open, with opponents who respect each other.
https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1501151273344815106
There's Chechen terrorists fighting for Ukraine as well.Replies: @Matra
Mercenaries avoid the casualty and morale problems of house to house fighting. That's the plus point.
The optics when CAR troops kill white women and children are going to look terrible to those Russians who get to see them and will have Russian soldiers question the reason for the war. That's the minus point. The optics don't have to be real either. The Ukrainian leader is from show biz after all. Most of the Russian anti fake above seems to have been created by Russian propaganda teams in the first place to be derided as fake.Replies: @AaronB
What happened to diversity of opinion in the democratic West. Why are people being forced to show their support for Ukraine and oppose the Russian invasion? This didn’t happen during any of the NATO and US wars, you were allowed to support or oppose them without getting banned or threatened.
Do you have a grammarly plug-in to help you censor yourself on twitter?
I have to say I increasingly agree with utu regarding the whole nukes issue and how the West is talking about it.
There is something deeply disturbing and wrong about how the West simply leaves the initiative in others hands and regards itself as almost helpless.
Putin gets to totally decide if nukes get used, even threaten them, whereas if the West intervenes them it means WWIII and nuclear war automatically etc etc.
Something very cowardly about this. Reminds me of how in the Israeli wars the left used to say every normal action Israel did was a “provocation” to the Arabs, as if they completely get to set the agenda.
Now, I’m not saying the West should impose a no fly zone or otherwise intervene directly – yet, although I can see things developing in a way that I would support that.
But just the way it’s discussed annoys me – seems so cowardly and materialistic. Rod Dreher, who I generally like, freaks out about the very idea of the West getting involved directly because it’s so scary it’s WWIII and nukes etc – something not quite right about that.
I don’t think for a second Putin will escalate to nukes if he can’t win the conventional war, and I don’t think his commanders and generals will obey him and launch nukes if the crazy man did.
If we’re going to continue doing the favorite occupation of mankind – fighting – in an age of nukes, we have to get over it already.
On reflection I suppose it is a good idea that Putin has given approval for Syrian, Iranian and other Middle Eastern fighters to join the Russian side in the Ukraine, even prioritising them over Russian volunteers who he is holding back. Those Middle Eastern volunteers could get more combat experience facing NATO trained and armed Europeans and this could be useful when they go back to liberate all of Syria including those oil fields and bases currently held by the Americans. Of course, later on … you guess against whom and where.
It is a point I have made before, but Lord Haw Haw and other Axis broadcasters were not jammed in WW2 and I remember hearing Radio Moscow loud and clear during the Cold War. Why the sudden fear of Russian sources like RT?
It doesn’t look like Anatoly has updated Substack since Feb 28. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place?
Lol
Zelenskyy says that Kiev will be Putin’s Stalingrad.
If Zelenskyy is lucky Kiev might be like Putin’s Sarajevo. A bitter intractable siege.
Stalingrad was never surrounded. The Soviet military had their backs to the Volga river but they had resupply and gradually built up overwhelming numbers of tanks and Troops on the outer flanks of the city and eventually the Soviets suddenly surrounded the German 6th Army that was in and around Stalingrad. The German 6th Army were trapped in a gigantic Cauldron by several tank armies in Operation Uranus. ( The Germans under Manstein in the south failed to conquer Baku and Grozny. That was the real failure. No oil)
What mobile reserve does Ukraine have?
It’s be Ukrainians Alesia, or the several Kiev sieges that have occurred in history. It’s not a defensible city if attacked from the north.
It's embarrassing. Russia is supposed to be this overwhelmingly strong power that has just modernized it's army etc etc. I'm sure the Syrian fighters will get chewed up in Ukraine - but still, it looks so bad for Putin.
And then the whole let's bring Muslims to kill fellow white Christians - my God, how much worse can it get from an optics point of view.
Of course, the alt-right won't reconsider their support for Putin and Muslims killing white Christians, but we know by now that the alt-right is just another flavor of post-modern nihilistic decadence, and not in any way pro-West, so that's no surprise.
It's noteworthy that the foreign fighters Ukraine is getting are not mercenaries but volunteers, and not from a foreign civilizational sphere. But for Russia to need to bring in foreign mercenaries is so cringe - that's not the look you want.
Anyways, why do the Russians seem to be doing literally everything so terribly from an optics point of view, down to their propoganda - as I said before, showing respect for Ukrainian bravery would actually look so much better than calling it things like "fanatical resistance" that must be punished etc, as Karlin does.
What all this suggests to me is that something about the "mental space" occupied by Russia's leaders and their supporters is very weird and unique, and involves a kind of blindness that can't see very basic things and is insulated from reality in a weird way.
I don't think they are being illogical, but obeying a different logic according to a different set of values, where all that matters is power, for instance, and the bad look of needing shoddy, cheap mercenaries to win for you doesn't matter because your success means you're "powerful" or something, etc etc.
When I stop to think of it, really the whole way Russia and it's supporters talk about this war is deeply weird - Karlins "fanatical resistance". I mean, what? It's a war, of course they'll fight back. This is bad? And the whole manipulation thing, the whole we'll force you to be our brothers thing...
This language can only occur in a weird post-modern setting like ours, and moreover is the language of psychopathic manipulation that is so characteristic of our times.
One yearns for a good clean war out in the open, with opponents who respect each other.Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen
The Nazis support Ukraine.
There’s Chechen terrorists fighting for Ukraine as well.
Zelenskyy says that Kiev will be Putin’s Stalingrad. If Zelenskyy is lucky Kiev might be like Putin’s Sarajevo. A bitter intractable siege. Stalingrad was never surrounded. The Soviet military had their backs to the Volga river but they had resupply and gradually built up overwhelming numbers of tanks and Troops on the outer flanks of the city and eventually the Soviets suddenly surrounded the German 6th Army that was in and around Stalingrad. The German 6th Army were trapped in a gigantic Cauldron by several tank armies in Operation Uranus. ( The Germans under Manstein in the south failed to conquer Baku and Grozny. That was the real failure. No oil) What mobile reserve does Ukraine have? It’s be Ukrainians Alesia, or the several Kiev sieges that have occurred in history. It’s not a defensible city if attacked from the north.Replies: @Commentator Mike
Sarajevo had a functioning open airport under the control of international “peacekeepers” through which weapons were smuggled disguised as humanitarian aid. This is not possible in Kiev.
Since Trump wasn’t able to dismantle NATO by peaceful means Russia will now do it by any means.
I remember back in 2001, the departing Bill Clinton went to Moscow to check on the new prez Putin – apparently to make sure that Putin is committed to democracy and free (for all?) market economy. What a pile of BS that was.
Anyway, during that visit, there were complains from the western media that Putin showed disrespect for the US president by giving him a good look of his crotch – so called manspreading.
What the west failed to understand – then and now – is that Putin is the crotching tiger and hidden dragon. Few years later Mrs. Clinton was also complaining about Putin’s manspreading. They just can’t stop scrotumizing – I meant to say scrutinizing Putin.
https://time.com/4949414/hillary-clinton-vladimir-putin-manspreading/
Given so much online censorship surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, I think this website should remain relatively free from that problem, and I strongly disagree with Anatoly’s recent trashing of pro-Ukraine comments.
Therefore, I’ve done as he had long suggested and renamed this blog “Russian Reaction Community” produced by the “Karlin Community” (all of you), so that his name is no longer on it.
I’ve now opened a new thread in which your comments will not be trashed for being “pro-Ukrainian propaganda”, so you might want to transfer your discussion there:
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-181-russia-ukraine/
It’s probably better if Anatoly no longer opens new threads since that would tempt him to trash comments on those. As he’s emphasized, he already has his Substack and Twitter accounts for his own use.
LMAO. I once had the fanciful idea that inflation might be a secret scheme to convert the US to the metric system.
It's embarrassing. Russia is supposed to be this overwhelmingly strong power that has just modernized it's army etc etc. I'm sure the Syrian fighters will get chewed up in Ukraine - but still, it looks so bad for Putin.
And then the whole let's bring Muslims to kill fellow white Christians - my God, how much worse can it get from an optics point of view.
Of course, the alt-right won't reconsider their support for Putin and Muslims killing white Christians, but we know by now that the alt-right is just another flavor of post-modern nihilistic decadence, and not in any way pro-West, so that's no surprise.
It's noteworthy that the foreign fighters Ukraine is getting are not mercenaries but volunteers, and not from a foreign civilizational sphere. But for Russia to need to bring in foreign mercenaries is so cringe - that's not the look you want.
Anyways, why do the Russians seem to be doing literally everything so terribly from an optics point of view, down to their propoganda - as I said before, showing respect for Ukrainian bravery would actually look so much better than calling it things like "fanatical resistance" that must be punished etc, as Karlin does.
What all this suggests to me is that something about the "mental space" occupied by Russia's leaders and their supporters is very weird and unique, and involves a kind of blindness that can't see very basic things and is insulated from reality in a weird way.
I don't think they are being illogical, but obeying a different logic according to a different set of values, where all that matters is power, for instance, and the bad look of needing shoddy, cheap mercenaries to win for you doesn't matter because your success means you're "powerful" or something, etc etc.
When I stop to think of it, really the whole way Russia and it's supporters talk about this war is deeply weird - Karlins "fanatical resistance". I mean, what? It's a war, of course they'll fight back. This is bad? And the whole manipulation thing, the whole we'll force you to be our brothers thing...
This language can only occur in a weird post-modern setting like ours, and moreover is the language of psychopathic manipulation that is so characteristic of our times.
One yearns for a good clean war out in the open, with opponents who respect each other.Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Philip Owen
The choice is killing tens of thousands of civilians by flattening large cities with artillery – see Mariupol or taking thousands of casualties amongst your own troops by going in house to house.
Mercenaries avoid the casualty and morale problems of house to house fighting. That’s the plus point.
The optics when CAR troops kill white women and children are going to look terrible to those Russians who get to see them and will have Russian soldiers question the reason for the war. That’s the minus point. The optics don’t have to be real either. The Ukrainian leader is from show biz after all. Most of the Russian anti fake above seems to have been created by Russian propaganda teams in the first place to be derided as fake.
These kinds of "practical" considerations certainly seem to undercut the idea that Putin is a nationalist - these types of considerations are purely about power.
If I was a Russian nationalist fighting for my country, I would be extremely demoralized by this kind of development.
I can understand why Karlin, who plainly states he is motivated by power and has no ethical or spiritual interests, would support whatever seemed like the most "efficient" way to gain his objective, but I thought Putin and Russia were supposed to be stand for at least some level of ethical and spiritual principle.
Moreover, it makes the Russian army look bad - like it can't do the job on its own. From the purely practical propoganda aspect, this seems like a terrible message to send.
Mercenaries avoid the casualty and morale problems of house to house fighting. That's the plus point.
The optics when CAR troops kill white women and children are going to look terrible to those Russians who get to see them and will have Russian soldiers question the reason for the war. That's the minus point. The optics don't have to be real either. The Ukrainian leader is from show biz after all. Most of the Russian anti fake above seems to have been created by Russian propaganda teams in the first place to be derided as fake.Replies: @AaronB
Thanks. Yes, that makes a lot of sense.
These kinds of “practical” considerations certainly seem to undercut the idea that Putin is a nationalist – these types of considerations are purely about power.
If I was a Russian nationalist fighting for my country, I would be extremely demoralized by this kind of development.
I can understand why Karlin, who plainly states he is motivated by power and has no ethical or spiritual interests, would support whatever seemed like the most “efficient” way to gain his objective, but I thought Putin and Russia were supposed to be stand for at least some level of ethical and spiritual principle.
Moreover, it makes the Russian army look bad – like it can’t do the job on its own. From the purely practical propoganda aspect, this seems like a terrible message to send.
Kiev is still rather open and not close to being sealed off. It may get sealed in a week or two of course, but good luck keeping it closed.
https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1501151273344815106
There's Chechen terrorists fighting for Ukraine as well.Replies: @Matra
In just about all relationships I’ve observed the woman adopts the political views of her man. Not doing so usually means she doesn’t really respect him. When Spencer was with a Russian he appeared on RT, repeated Russian government boilerplate, published the most anti-American pro-Russian writers, and censored pro-Ukrainian comments (including those of Greg Johnson) at Alternative Right. Now that he’s married (I think) to an American Democrat he’s a Biden-supporting, LGBT-friendly, liberal warhawk who calls people traitors for criticising the US. Seems like he’s a weak man who never wears the pants in his relationships.