Russia has just recognized the LNR and DNR, the logical culmination of Russia’s “Nationalist Turn” that identified as having been initiated under Putin by the late 2010s, as well as shorter-term predictions.
22/2/22 has a poetry to it.
Also easy for the schoolchildren to memorize it.
— Anatoly Karlin (🚀,🧬) (@akarlin0) January 17, 2022
As things stand now, we have:
- We have Putin openly calling Ukraine a Bolshevik-created fake state to universal Western shock and disbelief, openly adopting the narrative normalized amongst Russian youth subculture by the late Egor Prosvirnin. “Modern Ukraine was completely created by Russia, or to be more exact, by Bolshevik Communist Russia…If you want de–communization, we are happy with that. But don’t stop halfway – we are ready to show what de–communization really looks like.“
- We have not just recognition of the Donbass as the heart of Russia, but a mutual defense treaty with them.
- We have a horde of crazy Banderites so blood-lusted and deranged that they are not only shelling the Donbass but also brutally attacking tractor roads and sheds within Russian proper. Given these unfortunate circumstances, Ukrainian soldiers might want to start thinking about defection. As, indeed, some apparently already are.
- (We will never forget the tractor road, we will never forget the shed. 🙏🕯️)
- We have, by my estimation, almost 400,000 Russian/Belorussian troops and paramilitaries surrounding Ukraine.
Russia’s sins of the 20th century that led to its collapse and humiliation are being rolled back at an accelerating and increasingly blistering pace, leaving the small-souled – Western journalists, Russian Occidentophiles, Western Russophiles, and Ukrainian activists – in shock and disbelief.
Meanwhile, on a more mundane note, my blog’s comment threads have been taken over by bugmen, soylings, and sundry limitrophes who are not only terminally incapable of winning, but delight in counter-signaling those who do in various weak and petty ways. Even that aside, on a more general note, I feel that maintaining Open Threads here (as Ron Unz ha kindly done) without provisioning any real content increasingly pointless, though I don’t mind that so long as demand exists (as it clearly does). However, for those of you are interested in more engagement from me, as well as some other long-time regulars here that many of you will be familiar with, I have built another solution.
In my last post here announcing my move to Substack, I gave a commitment that, given Substack’s problems with commenting, I would seek to find an alternative venue for continuing our discussions.
You can now join the official Discord group for Powerful Takes here: https://discord.gg/Gb5RB4kSuh
As per above, there is already a pretty active community, so do feel free to join us all in our “transition” to follow the latest Ukrainian habbenings as well as other topics, like crypto and gaming.
Putin is, undoubtedly, a gamer.

So it will be a mixture of tasteful war porn, banter about video games and financial advice on how to make money with bitcoin scams?
Hard not to wonder if this isn’t some coded expression of contempt for your audience.
Discord does not run correctly for me, I will have to look into options to join that forum.
Putin’s announcement is provocative, but still short of a guaranteed war. We will have to see what develops on the ground.
Not-The-President Biden’s attempt to exploit the Ukraine situation for personal gain has failed miserably. Inflation at home is so biting, the potential for a war overseas does not move the needle. Gasoline prices are particularly brutal on the working poor. (see below)
Without the ability to obtain Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force [AUMF], there can be no substantive American backing for Ukraine. Most of NATO’s airlift potential is U.S. military and will thus be unavailable. If NATO is to join the fray, Turkey will be the indispensable logistics hub. And, it seems unlikely that anyone serious will rely on Recep “S400” Erdogan as a partner against Putin.
Ukraine has a losing hand. Do they realize that?
PEACE 😇
Do you have evidence for that number? Sources consistently say 190,000. I guess they don’t take into account the Donbas militias with 40,000.
Are you suggesting the Belarus armed forces would also invade? Their total number is 62,000.
Back in December I guessed 10% chance of full invasion of the country, 80% grabbing Donbas (including oblast territory out of current rebel control, including possible missile strikes beyond to support this), 30% Donbas plus adjacent territory such as Crimean land bridge or maybe Kharkiv.
Still don’t see full invasion and takeover happening but I’d increase odds of seizing areas outside Donbas. Putin mentioned Kharkiv in his speech. Extent of the offensive may depend on the ferocity of resistance. And I’m guessing it will be more unpleasant than Russian cakewalkers will anticipate.
Looks like the “Freedom Convoy” in Ottawa is ended after some heavy handed police tactics. Now a police state, one needs to show papers to enter downtown Ottawa.
From the moment that it started, they fell into the leftist morality trap, constantly declaring how they are “not racist”. People were walking around the crowd, looking for non-whites to take photos with to prove how “inclusive” the movement is. The crowd was of course 99% white, despite the photo ops. Lots of beer swilling rednecks out grilling and drinking.
The police boot licking at these protests was even worse. Every speaker kept talking about how we should “thank the cops” for “being here”. Everybody was sure that the police were secretly on the side of freedom. Back the Blue! The Blue of course then came in acting like thugs and started making arrests, smashing windows, and towing trucks.
Most of the response to the thuggery and state tyranny was just trashy looking females screaming on Twitter about “imagine if this was a BLM protest!” “This is un-democratic!” “Trudeau is the real fascist!” The learned helplessness that’s been instilled in our people through decades of conditioning.
White people are by and large pathetic, both on the left and right. I say this as a pure blood, old stock Scots-Irish Loyalist. Hopefully this wakes some people up – “Freedom” and “democracy” and “tolerance” and “peaceful protest” has always been a sham. The only way to beat their thugs is to out-thug them and take over. Playing martyr on Twitter doesn’t cut it. Also, police always side with the state because the state pays their fat salary and pension.
The provincial vax mandates are being lifted (which is a good thing) but I expect them to come back with some kind of social credit score to be federally implemented this fall.
I don’t understand why AK makes you seethe so much. If you haven’t noticed, the fact that AK left didn’t affect the commentary activity on this blog much (which tells you a lot). Many of us just come here to shoot the shit in a relaxed bantz environment.
The Doctrine of the Mighty:
Well, check the link. Russian ground forces are indeed around 190k. But it’s a counting question, I don’t see why one shouldn’t count the VDV; naval units; the Air Force and Black Sea Fleet; Rosgvardiya; the Belorussians; and yes, the LDNR Army Corps. All told, comparable to the force assembled against Iraq in 2003, plus two decades’ worth of technological progress and multiple times the Americans’ artillery/missile firepower accurately directed by drones.
I bought the meme that it would not be a cakewalk a few years ago, but having studied the issue more closely the past month, I am now convinced that it will be.
Anatoly, I almost hate to be the one to point it out to you, but your blog here at UNZ has been cruising along pretty good here, averaging about 500 comments per week. This seems to indicate that your stimulating intellectual insights are hardly needed to satisfy the needs of the various “bugmen, soylings, and sundry limitrophes” (AP, German Reader, AaronB, Songbird, Dmitry, A-123, LatW, sudden death, Blinky Bill, sher singh, Aedib, Thulean Friend, Emile Nicola Richard, Mikel, Mikhail, Yellowace Anon, Barbarossa and many, many others). The commenters haven’t really changed much since you’ve left, so why go out of your way to try and put them down?
None of these individuals has gone out of their way to put you down.
How does it feel to realize that your input has for all intents and purposes really become irrelevant?
We’ll all, most likely go on respecting you, so there’s no need to display these childlike tantrums! 🙂
Good game, but very weird to adduce it as support for your political views. Honestly, at this stage it’s hard to tell whether you’re just non-stop trolling or if you’ve really fried your brain with too much internet and genuinely think this style of discourse is appropriate.
But if they ever decide to slap personal sanctions on you for your war-mongering, I suppose the one thing that would really hurt you would be confiscating your Steam account.
I think that he’s amped up his power hungry persona while at the same seemingly descended into the trivial is a good sign of something more significant.
This new grandiose will to power thing he’s come back with has a genuine hint of desperation and showmanship in it – it certainly isn’t the calm confidence of one who is certain in his vision and values.
Tough guy personas always betray weakness.
At the same time, I was thinking recently how Karlin, Chieh, Ron Unz etc – the techno utopian types – seem somehow to have lost steam and to have either gone quiet, or descended into the trivial or the endlessly circular.
This site was fresh and original five years ago. Now? IIts just the same article over and over again – America and Jews are responsible for everything bad, no matter what or where it happens, no one else has any agency, etc, etc.
To me, what this means is that increasingly the entire global community is entering a period where the old story of our civilization is breaking down and losing credibility, while we have not yet created a new one.
It’s a remarkable thing – in the 1950s the average person genuinely thought that utopia would come from a few more decades of technological invention.
Today, who believes that, really, truly? We mouth the platitudes, but no one believes that the next invention will save us, in his heart.
So we cling desperately to this old story, that we will transcend nature, and along with that comes the tough guy power hungry persona, but it all seems increasingly shrill and tenuous.
Karlin seems to me like he’s trying to prop up a fading vision he no longer believes in in his bones by asserting ever more desperately and shrilly.
And that’s a good thing.
Sure, Russia might make a few splashy tough guy power hungry moves in service to this dying vision, but the global community as a whole is evolving beyond it.
Very well said.
He’s obviously hurting a lot right now and has some kind of new insecurity to compensate for with the Big Man act – I think the entire commenting community should give Karlin one big virtual hug 🙂
And assure him that we find him valuable and worthy no matter his views.
We love you Anatoly! You are a worthy person! 🙂
These kinds of overcompensations are always caused by an inner feeling of worthlessness and lack – that’s the sickness of modernity, having lost connection to spiritual values.
They are best dealt with by affirming with love the person overcompensating and acting grandiose.
I believe this is one meaning at least of love your enemy – the understanding that he is acting out of a sense of inner deficiency, which is only filled by love.
Spoiler: I don’t actually play games these days, haven’t in years. Long-time members of my Discord can confirm.
I think personal sanctions will be a great privilege and honor, if you could help arrange them for me, I’d strongly appreciate, thanks.
My impression is rather that traditional great power rivalry is back, on a global scale, and that we’re entering very dangerous times. A bit like before 1914 maybe.
Karlin also has a point to some extent, there’s no doubt that Russia is able to smash Ukraine and demonstrate the utter powerlessness of the West to do something against it…that’s hardly a sign of weakness as traditionally understood, and understandably gratifying to Russian imperialists. Whether such a course of action will be beneficial for Russia in the long run, seems more doubtful to me, but no way to be sure.
It seems to be the real material insult to Karlin, so he throws back the wordy insult in response.
So it’s part of some strategy to cloak the hard edge of your views in fun pop culture and memes? What for? It’s hardly likely that your output in English will win over Russian youth for the national cause, where such a strategy might make sense.
Eh, who cares. Have fun with your Discord weirdoes, and fleece them of their money, they don’t deserve better.
Ron Unz and Mike Whitney are proven correct again. Washington texted new GPS positions directly to Russian tank commanders so they began moving in to rebel regions of Ukraine. Putin is furious realizing he is helpless against American perfidy and aggression.
Unless there is some tricky plan to give back smashed lands, Russia is going to have to pay to replace everything they break. It is the GW Bush Iraq problem. Winning the War is the easier part. Winning the Peace is incredibly expensive.
If Russia can secure the two breakaway provinces without a full scale fight, that is attractive as a long term solution. However, that may not be achievable depending on the Ukrainian response.
PEACE 😇
I’m happy for you, if Ron wants to maintain this space, I’m perfectly fine with that, though over time it will as you correctly point out it will have less and less to do with me. Which I suppose is just as well, given that my blog comment threads have become a nest of svidomism and dominated by bitter/humorless people that I’m not too interested in engaging in conversation (not because I am offended or whatever, that strikes me as exceedingly gay, but because there are many more interesting things to do in life). Which is quite ironic come to think of it, me being basically the only Anglosphere commenter who identified Russia’s cardinal change in ideological course very early, but there you go. Not all predictions can be easily monetized or even converted into reputational capital.
What I am doing here is letting the commenters here, some of whom I do deeply respect and appreciate, know that as I promised, there is now a Discord they can join which I think has pretty cool community and discussions. Joining or not is up to them of course, but for my part, I don’t see any point to continue commenting at Russian Reaction beyond this post (even if it continues to bear my name).
The 190,000 is supposed to include all Russian forces, explicitly identifies the National Guard and Donbas militias as part of the number; doesn’t mention the Navy:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60158694
Doesn’t include the Belarussian Army.
So we are back to a sub Iraq War coalition number facing a better military than the one fielded by Iraq in 2003.
Hopefully we don’t find out who was right.
Pro-RF coping has begun?
Also pretty funny that commies now understandably feel offended by Putin’s speech, lol:
I’d think I made people more money than I lost them, on average (despite never pretending to be an influencoor or anything of that kind).
But, at the end of the day, only some are destined to make it, and some are destined to remain bitter losers indefinitely. WAGMI is a lie.
You know, through it all, and often being on different sides of the ideological divide, you and I have displayed if not a small amount of affection for one another, then definitely some respect. Since you’ve left this blogsite, the few postings of yours that I’ve read portray a sort of wild eyed nationalist that is really feeling hyped up by this Russian inspired war angst. I never felt this before from you when you were regularly posting here. Stop and think about what might happen: lot’s of blood being spent on both sides, most likely including civilians,babushkas and children too. Is this really something that turns you on?
The Ukrainians in my community gather at church on Sundays, and we’re fervently praying for peace. This whole idea, no doubt concocted primarily by Putin, is really so crazy, on so many different planes. I wish that you could see it more clearly and critically.
The Elonmuscovites. If your funding comes from an inner Pentagon ring fascism is going to be a great gig. Has he relocated his residence to Austin yet or is he still living in the gilded homeless encampment of Los Angeles?
Interesting, but I am saying something different.
I’m not talking about physical weakness or petty nationalist conflict.
What I am interested in is the new spiritual vision humanity will adopt as the old one of transcending nature increasingly collapses.
It may seem that escalating Russian power hunger indicates that the old vision of dominating nature, and the power hunger and tough guy persona that is part of that spiritual package, is still strong.
I think it may the dying gasp of an old vision – like the flare up of a dying star.
I am sure and wish for Russia as a country to flourish and be healthy and strong.
I’m indeed a bitter loser, and it doesn’t bother me much admitting it, so that dig doesn’t affect me. Nor does it affect the substance of my criticism. I think you’re out of your mind that you’re happy about present developments, and since you’re obviously not stupid in the low-IQ sense it’s all the sadder. But obviously there’s no point to a discussion about this.
If this will be the resolve of this manufactured crisis in current unchanged confrontation front lines configuration, it leaves everything the same in fact since 2014-2015, except military of RF becoming kinda “official” instead of “unofficial”:
But what is nature but the choosing of the slain?
https://loquaciousbibliophilia.net/2022/02/05/other-minds-the-octopus-the-sea-and-the-deep-origins-of-consciousness-a-longread-part-two/#more-58
I actually agree that great power rivalry is back, in a much more muted form in the age of nukes.
It will be a much smaller canvas on which to paint ones ambitions, when one knows only rather small and local victories are possible, and consequently, only increasingly petty men will be attracted to this.
No more world spanning Napoleons or Alexanders, but some local province may get reabsorbed. The caliber of men attracted to this level of ambition obviously won’t be like Napoleon or Alexander.
But the attempt to create a single global community and transcend nationalist conflict was itself part of the scientific project to transcend nature – national rivalries were to be set aside so mankind could collectively focus on the grand task of winning immortality and seeding the stars.
Tower of Babel kind of thing, really.
That power politics are back suggests exactly what I’m saying, that this vision of the “ascent of humanity” is no longer credible.
At the same time, the vision of transcending nature that dominated our culture for the past five hundred years itself emerged from the mindset of power politics – it’s just a more intensified form.
So the first stage of the collapse of the “grand vision” will be a reversion to it’s smaller and more petty form.
But I believe, that power hunger as an attitude to life, and the belief about nans relationship to the universe it rests upon, will increasingly be questioned.
Or at least, this is increasingly my way of looking at it.
I view calling people “bugmen” or “soylings”, as an exhortation not to be these things, which from my perspective is pure positivism. IMO, it would be better if people were called these things more often – if there were a national holiday and ceremonies around it. Or some right of passage, which involved winning the right to wear pants.
“Limitrophes” I have interpreted to mean people living in the in periphery of the former Russian Empire, who might have hard feelings against Russia. Not that I mean to be too blase about it (am not predicting big war), but I think last time a sizeable portion of my ancestors were there, they were all speaking Proto-Indo-European, so I feel somewhat removed from it. Though, naturally I would like Slavs to cooperate, as I view them as distant kin.
RF recognizes LDNR in current factual border configuration, says Andrey Klimov (RF Federation Council International relations comitte member) – if this is truth, this is crucial and end of hot conflict at the moment, but only if false flag propaganda exercises like “Ukraine spec ops attacking RF” are stopped.
OK boomer
A misguided and knee-jerk worship of the police and military and therefore State power has been long instilled in the Right. It will take a while for them to become disabused of that.
Folks are starting to slowly wake up to the fact that these institutions do not represent the people and do not ultimately exist to protect them. They exist to ratify state power and that is where their ultimate loyalty lies.
The shift to an all volunteer military creates a nearly perfect loyal mercenaries. Unfortunately, open disdain for civilians by career military is far from uncommon, at least in the US. They do not feel they are cut from the same cloth as the rest of us.
In the US the main hold-outs against this are the locally elected Sheriffs and many local PD’s. They tend to retain some independence and local loyalty more frequently. Steps are being taken, at least on the State level where I am to rein in the independence of the Sheriff’s since the State sees them as a weak link.
Massive sanctions are pretty much unavoidable, if Russia proceeds to invade Ukraine, and installs a puppet government, or dismembers the country and annexes large parts (and I believe that’s what’s going to happen, even though I was sceptical for a long time). The economic consequences in Western Europe will be really painful, and the US won’t be unaffected either, will strongly drive up inflation. And in parts of the world that are already messed up price rises for fuel and basic foodstuffs might lead to all manner of political instability and increase migratory flows. So unfortunately this is going to have negative consequences for all of us.
How original. Apparently the racialists were correct that slant-eyes are lacking in creativity.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/21/neanderthal-gene-could-explain-ethnic-groups-suffer-worse-covid/
I wondered about something like this since fairly early on, since it appeared to me that African’s and East Asians were less affected by Covid than, say Amerindians. Even poverty levels, population density, or counter measures used did not seem to account for the disparity.
I think Mikhail Zygar did quite a good job of that with “All The Kremlin’s Men” back in 2016, though his liberal lense in viewing of this development was of course far more negative than yours, I thought he charted the ideological/PR developments and factional struggles within Putin’s government since 2000 quite fairly.
RF recognizes LDNR in current factual border configuration, says Andrey Klimov (RF Federation Council International relations comitte member) – this is crucial and end of hot conflict at the moment, but only if false flag propaganda exercises like “Ukraine spec ops are attacking RF objects” are stopped.
https://tass.ru/politika/13793109
After weeks of racial harmony in the forum where we were all like the children in a Martin Luther King speech, friends with each, and sharing our interest in Chinese culture.
Now I open this thread and the brown, yellow and white people are arguing with each other, based on nationality.
This is below us. (Edit – I’m sounding like Thulean Friend with this writing style).
–
Whatever else it can be, I think there is an important history event happening now.
I’m wondering how the expert historical community has been talking about this in Germany?
Are they talking about it through a lens of 1930s? Or is it viewed as something less dangerous?
Short term Pain — Long term Gain
The U.S. needs MAGA Reindustrialization, and Europe needs something similar. Exposing the extreme danger posed by dependence on China–Russia will accelerate these needed reforms. Disengaging from CCP owned firms will bolster the U.S. and weaken the most odious parts of the PRC.
The biggest losers will be the UN/NWO European Davos WEF Elites. The surge in Populism will drive a stake through the heart of their aspirational goal, ending national sovereignty.
PEACE 😇
These numbers can be increasing however. It’s not like Iraq 2003, where everything is transported across oceans. It’s all just things you put on the train inside the home country and pay the crew for the train ticket.
I guess nobody of us understand military, of course including myself.
But from internet chatter on Twitter by military people, they seem to regularly imply this buildup of forces is still continuing, and will be an ongoing process.
For example, he (who is a former special forces soldier in Finland) says about the video showing movement of the BMPT-2 “Terminators”.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-175/#comment-5182779
Based.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Co-morbidities.
There will also be some positives, but EU just lost quite badly. The sanctions were coming anyway, it was built into the situation. The situation was 90% created by the NATO attempt at expansion. All the negatives are consequences of that initial error.
The final straw was Sholz laughing at the genocide in Donbas – that was after he claimed that NATO bombed Serbia to prevent a ‘genocide’. That was extremely bad taste and it removed last constraints – one cannot talk to idiots who don’t even consider people in Donbas humans and who lie about their own attack on Serbia. Finished, done for.
We can be grateful to that moron Sholz, his simple-mindness, and that of his green sidekick, made it all very personal – after all the Germans, the parents or grandparents of these two idiots, murdered millions in the east – including in Donbas. Whatever comes will be cosmic justice. But what a moron.
You’re generally correct, but since Chieh seems to find the present situation really, really funny (with him posting only idiotic memes to express his Karlin-fanboyism), I don’t feel bad about replying according to the style of the net weirdoes he seems to feel comfortable with (it’s all fun and games after all!). No offense to Asians in general intended.
No idea. imo the opinions of most historians outside their narrow field of expertise are worthless anyway.
how can someone, who, presumably (at least my passing impression in the past) is concerned about the fate of european people(s) in the current circumstances, get butthurt about ‘war’, especially one with explicitly nationalist overtones striking back in the face of the globalising efforts of Great Satan USA?
as an English person currently suffering the effects of the West’s ongoing (and greatly intensifying) genocide of its own ‘state forming peoples’ (to use Putin’s own nice phrase when boosting Russians right to their own lands) – if we somehow survive this, it’s not going to be by being pussies.
Damn, can’t believe my eyes it’s A123 writing it 🙂
The idea that mankind destroying the natural world is somehow the “purpose” of nature – if I understand the gist of this – because there is some level of competition in nature – which usually leads to equilibrium in a healthy ecosystem, btw, not limitless expansion of any one species or aspect, which is actually the definition of a dysfunctional ecosystem – seems quite silly.
Healthy natural systems involve equilibrium. Sure, there is competition – but the kind of limitless innovation or competition envisioned by modernity, if we are going to take out cues from nature, are clearly the definition of breakdown and dysfunction.
As we are seeing today.
I don’t believe he will annex Ukraine.
I believe his goal is to keep NATO out of Ukraine, and that doesn’t require annexing it, only sending a stronger signal than was sent before NATO expanded Eastward.
Considering the geography, IMO, his behavior is fairly rational, China went apeshit when Americans were set to land in Korea. US wept apeshit when Soviets were putting nukes on Cuba. Smaller countries don’t have the capacity to signal in the same manner.
These big mobilizations are necessary. You can’t send a signal with a small one. Russia is a land power, it can’t send three carrier battlegroups, to saberrattle. The US regularly saber-rattles with its navy. It just has no need to do so, in its backyard, because it was the dominant power, over that sphere, without its elites ever turning ways.
_________
I’d probably be more worried, if I lived in Germany, because this will, at a minimum, probably sink Nordstream 2. (no war) In the long term, being reliant on US LNG tankers may be worse than being reliant on Russian gas.
For the US, the big test will be when China annexes Taiwan. That might possibly lead to an economic decoupling, though I am not 100% sure. Will be very painful, for sure, if it happens.
There are plenty of gas fields to reduce consumption from Russia to zero. Norway can supply Northern Europe. EastMed can supply Southern Europe. It takes time, funding, and especially will. The last has been the factor most lacking.
As an added bonus, the need for EastMed means that Europe/U.S. will soon be tossing the madness that is Erdogan straight under the proverbial bus.
It is a rare geopolitical WIN-WIN-WIN scenario.
PEACE 😇
It is almost 4am in Kiev and everything quiet?
–
This night, ruble was down to the “psychologically important” 1 $ = 80 р. with the fears of war beginning. (I am old enough to remember when falling to 60 was a horror).

I guess when the sophisticated world of finance, has to wait to see if Zhirinovsky was being a clown again or not.
Ukraine should introduce a state of war (voenniy stan) in the remainder of these provinces, full physical control of this territory to avoid provocations, complete control of who comes and goes there. Rada should implement it this coming morning.
Btw, there are rumors that the Generalshtab is not a 100% on board with the invasion. At least some officers aren’t too keen. Of course, they’ll have to follow the orders, but there are such rumors. The British had some intelligence along the same lines.
Certainly wouldn’t call myself a freetrader, but I don’t know that trying to create a vertically-integrated economy built around maximization of diversity is going to very workable in practice.
Should be an interesting stress test, if it happens. Possibly even, a kick in the pants for a move towards sanity, and away from this insane track we are on, towards total destruction. Though, as I’ve said, I’m not sure that economic decoupling will happen.
It seems like Putin wants to resolve the issue once and for all…apparently Macron offered a moratorium on NATO membership for Ukraine, but that wasn’t enough, it has to be permanently excluded (and since the US is “agreement-incapable”, and any new administration might just walk back on commitments, what chance is there of that?). The most convincing way to get that would be a punitive expedition into Ukraine, smashing its forces and demonstrating that NATO’s promises were completely empty, that nobody is going to fight for Ukraine and Ukraine will always be at Russia’s mercy. Whether or to what extent there’ll be annexations, who knows, but on the other hand, why not, it’s not like it would make much difference to the Western response at that point.
We’ll see soon enough. And yes, I’m somewhat selfish, I’m not happy at all about the prospect of increased energy insecurity in Germany (but also find the prospect of carnage in Ukraine, with maybe tens of thousands going to be killed in a short time, pretty sickening).
I know what you mean. But it’s not Unz, et al’s fault that it’s always the Juice and Americans.
The fault lies not in the stars, but in your idiocy.
I’m pleased that the mere whiff of my presence is already injecting more will to power in you. You shouldn’t suggest that there is anything wrong in simping for bipoc lesbian Russian writers, however. Diversity is our strength.
That certainly accounts for a lot when comparing similar ethnic groups. It’s clearly a major reason that Americans fared so badly. Being obese is risk factor numero uno.
This would explain why North American Rez Indians got hit so hard. They tend to be very unhealthy populations. But why would Central/ South America get hit so hard? They still tend to be relatively healthy. And why did they have such a bad time compared to Africa which should be somewhat comparable in development etc.?
It seems unsurprising to me that a genetic factor(s) could be involved as it would account for some inconsistency.
I don’t remember your channeling your inner Authoritarian Delphic Oracle quite so much in your pronouncements last time around. Must be something similar in the water that you and AK are drinking.
At one time, US was so paranoid about Euros possibly projecting power into its backyard, that it undertook steps which eventually made Puerto Ricans into American citizens. Admittedly, they are a varied group, but, the lower sort is, perhaps, best categorized as the Latino version of Chechens.
(Loose analogy, I know. But who has spent more? Russia on Chechnya, or US on Puerto Rico? Not counting blood, wouldn’t even come close.)
___
Expanding NATO into the Baltics was dumb, but, in a way, it could be interpreted as a political and economic integration, with the military forces being token, and there only with the intent to accomplish those things.
Ukraine would be a fundamentally different matter.
While the aspirational goal is decoupling, in practice it will be focused on strategic sectors like pharmaceuticals and raw materials (e.g. rare earth elements). Buying socks from Bangladesh is likely to continue indefinitely.
MAGA Reindustrialization is a virtuous cycle. As American workers earn more, they buy more America goods, creating more American jobs. MAGA prosperity or SJW impoverishment? An easy choice. As workers do better, they will support the Populist MAGA party. It is a track towards victory and prosperity.
It will not be easy, and it will not be instant. Key to success is excluding #NeverTrump, defeatist, yahoo whiners. Low-IQ dregs cannot be allowed to sabotage the movement from the inside.
PEACE 😇
“compared to Africa ” – Look at population pyramid of US/European countries and compare it with African countries. You will see that in say 80-84 age range African countries have 20x less people than European countries. You can safely assume (because IFR(age) is an exponential function of age) that IFR(Africa)<IFR(Europe)/20. Then with that much lower IFR the excess deaths in Africa with African level of information/administration infrastructure is not detectable.
See:
https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2020/
https://www.populationpyramid.net/nigeria/2020/
Looking for genes that may explain different outcomes is just Unzian bias. Blacks and Whites in the US did not have that much different outcomes to the pandemic.
I think they are more desperate this time around…
As I said to GR, we seem to be approaching one of those moments where spiritual trends become clearly defined, where what was at stake all along comes into sharp relief.
Even two years ago, I did not really understand what was at stake like I do now.
But that means, that those on a downward trajectory get worse, and those on an upward trajectory continue on that path.
The two paths become clearer and clearer….
Biden’s response to Russian troops moving into separatists region of Ukraine is a joke. Banning US firms doing business in the area? Is that all? Hopefully tomorrow we will see something more substantial.
This is the core, 100% Putin made, error. He knew that that there was no way to get to a “legally binding” guarantee, yet he asked for the impossible anyway. Presumably Putin was expecting some sort of capitulation from Not-The-President Biden. When the Alzheimer’s patient did something unexpected, the colossal error came home to roost.
Putin never should have made such a demand without having a way out. That error, in the short-term, will be very costly to everyone. The most that can be hoped for is that such obvious proof of Russian unreliability and unreasonableness will hasten long-term decoupling.
PEACE 😇
Mowgli, who was raised by machines, is getting feisty. He would like to be Karlin’s attack red panda.
So far this is just “minor incursion” from Biden POV and he is right – only if RF keeps going beyond current de facto already existing frontlines, which have been more or less stable for several years already and are not crossed yet, then more serious measures should kick in.
True, there are some few last holdouts who believe in the old vision, but most of society no longer really believes it in it’s bones – without yet gaining a new faith, vision, and story, which accounts for much of the confusion and dysfunction of our time. We are in the space between stories.
But if you stop and think about it it’s astonishing how different our attitude is from someone in, say, the 50s.
Textiles can be outsourced nearly anywhere, IMO. Meanwhile, some developing countries can reasonably handle the mass production of single products that might be sophisticated in some measure like hard drives. But China had complicated supply chains that probably can’t be duplicated at cost, anywhere else. Partly due to scale, but partly due to human capital. The end result might be that many electronics and other items become suddenly very costly.
This will be very disruptive politically, as cheap, easily available electronics was the major fig leaf on inflation. But I’m more worried about what will happen, if they drop US debt.
If the politicians go the sanction route over Taiwan, I expect it to result in mass unemployment, super-high inflation, and scarce availability of goods. It will be comparable, possible even worse than the Great Depression, as civil society was much more functional and well-mannered back then.
Possibly it might lead to reforms. But it might also lead to increasing totalitarianism. If we are lucky, IMO, they will chicken out, and only use rhetoric. But, probably, they are too dumb for that.
It does seem like folks around here are getting increasingly oddly amped up or edgy surrounding the whole Ukrainian situation.
As for myself, I’m feeling quite unperturbed since I just bought a very nice backhoe today. The world cannot touch me…
Maybe some good music would help…
@AaronB- It crossed my mind the other day to wonder if you were at all familiar with the Armenian American composer Alan Hovhaness. I’ve always like his work quite a bit and thought you might appreciate it.
Atomophiles should believe in a prophecy that begins: when the power of the atom has returned to Visaginas…
Lol, Japanese Hitachi wanted to build new nuclear station there instead of closed Chernobyl type Soviet one, but Lithuanian voters rejected the idea of a new nuclear build because of a high potential cost at the time in 2013. So probably not soon 😉
I was specifically thinking of the comparison between S. America and Africa. It seems odd to me that S. American countries skew so high in Covid stats, since they have a significantly younger median population than other countries with similar numbers.
You are correct that Africa is far and away the youngest continent which explains a massive amount of the outcome there.
FWIW I don’t tend to personally be all that big into jumping to genetic explanations for various things, though I can see why that would be a reasonable assumption around these parts.
You underestimate diabetes & pollution in the urban third world
Also status quo right wing won’t stop loving authority. They’re just old school liberals as I pointed out.
They simply represent the dominant status quo of another time period.
Hindus haven’t stopped loving authority, and since they’re both gay & a democracy they can be used as a succinct example।।
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
“Sunset in the ethereal waves:
I cannot tell if the day
is ending, or the world, or if
the secret of secrets is inside me again.”
― Anna Akhmatova
That’s it precisely. I hope that Svidomyatheart doesn’t read this – he’ll castigate me as not worthy of any svidomy stripes. NOT! 😉
Was Ben Franklin right that the only white Germans are Saxons? And what did he mean by Saxons? Coastal Germans? (As Finland calls Germany “Saksa”, though Scandis use a different word)
The US can and should get ahead of that test by dealing with Putin’s Ukraine invasion boldly: challenge the Russians by hitting Russia’s far eastern flank a la MacArthur’s Incheon landing during the Korean War.
During the Korean War, the North Koreans were able to invade and take over the whole Korean peninsula save Busan in the far south. This left the North Koreans overextended, and MacArthur’s brilliant Incheon landing flanked the North Koreans. Russia’s buildup in Eastern Europe has left Vladivostok and the Russian Far East similarly extremely vulnerable and undefended.
The US has almost 100,000 military personnel stationed in South Korea and Japan, along with the US Navy’s Pacific fleet. The US should respond to an invasion of Ukraine by taking Vladivostok and Khabarovsk. This would also send a message to China regarding Taiwan.
I certainly do not have much warm feelings towards RF, but at least at the current hour, hope this is just satire, lol 🙂
There’s some funny things over the last day.
Putin presented this live broadcast of speech and meeting “discussion” with National Security Council in the evening.
But the watches of the people there show it wasn’t a live broadcast.
It was filmed at lunchtime. But then they tell everyone it was “live”
Lol it’s typical though.
There are much more funny things usually in the media culture, like the reports which show that Putin meeting ordinary people, who are always prepared actors, etc.
–
Also the FSB reports yesterday that 5 Ukrainian terrorists attacked the Russian border. They say all 5 Ukrainian terrorists were killed by the FSB before their terrorist activity in Russia.
During the video, the vehicle changes from BTR-80 to BMP-2,
In addition, the video is filmed in the wrong season or location. Now is winter. But in the video, the forest is green, and at one moment you can see blossom. Moreover, it appears to be taiga, which is not the climate or trees in the Rostov region.
At 0:03 there is a young oak tree with fully green leaves. So the video of this terrorist attack by Ukrainian forces today, was filmed at least in May or June.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550157-fsb-video-ukrainian-vehicles/
–
They posted a video where I can see a young oak tree (at 0:03), with green mature oak leaves in it and say this video is an event in the 21st in February, where they killed 5 Ukrainian terrorists. But for such a tree to have mature green leaves, can be only May or June.
If there will be more such news and videos after the recognition of LDNR, then it means the real hot war is still ahead, despite the current strange (temporary?) quiet at the moment.
‘Dumb and lazy’: the flawed films of Ukrainian ‘attacks’ made by Russia’s ‘fake factory’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/dumb-and-lazy-the-flawed-films-of-ukrainian-attacks-made-by-russias-fake-factory
Is the RF military financial situation really so dire, that they even could not afford to blow up some old BTR-80 yesterday, instead of finding some old videos from video archives?
Yes, that’s the explanation, the RF military’s dire financial situation! It’s so dire, they couldn’t conduct a war even if they wanted to.
No, you misunderstand the situation. As was indicated by an EU official at the time, these are the types of demands made by a victorious party. So they are the terms of surrender Russia will be demanding once it’s done fighting. Making them ahed of time was simply a relatively meaningless gesture of good will.
Nice to see such enthusiastic agreement 😉
Lol, my word but it looks like we’re having a commenter revolution. But do recall that it will soon be followed by Bolsheviks, then 80 interminable Open Threads about the importance of strong transsexual BIPOC public servants and striking down white supremacy.
It looks like the main battles are still ahead as those newly recognized and backed by RF “republics” demanded UA to step back and pull the military forces from the current positions.
This comment serves you right for letting ungrateful peons make laws.
The tragic lessons of history when this is allowed are angels on the head of a pin.
OK boomer
Intemperate insults like this are why the gods will not allow you to grow nice asparagus.
Probably the kind of Saxons fought and subjugated by Charlemagne in northern Germany (the other Saxony, with Dresden as centre, only got the name in the late middle ages for dynastic reasons). I suppose it’s an early example of Anglo-Saxonism (just as Jefferson was interested in Old English, traced American liberty back to the ancient Germanics and their assemblies and wanted Hengist and Horsa – along the ancient Israelites – put on the US seal iirc).
Ironically, there’s a book about the Saxons in late antiquity (e. g. the pirates who caused the creation of the litus Saxonicus along the English channel) and early middle ages by German historian Matthias Springer, and he argues that virtually nothing can be known with certainty about the Saxons before Christianization.
Everyone is so wound up about war.
What exactly has Russia done that is different from South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh?
Russia just took longer than usual this time (around 7 years).
To use an old meme:
1. Place ‘Peacekeepers’ right in harms way
2. Watch ‘Peacekeepers’ get lit up
3. ????
4. Profit
That’s what happened in Georgia and that’s what happened in Armenia and that’s what will happen here. No that doesn’t mean an invasion of the whole of Ukraine.
A lot of Bangladesh garment buying isn’t about divestment from China (like buying Made in the US Tees) but high labor costs in China and intentional upgrading on the value chain by Chinese local governments (Xinjiang excepted because Uyghurs). The West is planning for more “domestic” (certainly high-cost) or production in Korea/SEA to offset the loss of Taiwanese production, but only by that much.
Supply chains failures are already quite widespread, but can be even worse if major breakdowns in trade occur & (perhaps even more importantly) Randian ideologies take hold & intentionally reduce economic complexity, and high inflation is guaranteed by existing money printing. 80% of employment in the US are paper shuffling or 3rd-world menial labor, they might not be blown away with chips shortage, and it might even help slightly by slowing automation to a halt.
Any “reform” that is possible in a Progressive government will likely damage the interest of Conservatives and hence the common people, maybe even non-Whites if economic failure kicks in. And it will be much more Soviet with the constant “threat” (propagandized) of the Ruskies & ChiComs.
I’ll probably be the last to join the Discord gp, btw, since my main a/c is for anime. Will start a new a/c with the email I use here later, if enough commenters have migrated from here.
The rest of Asia has been busy catching up to China’s inefficient, CCP controlled industries. For electronics, options exist “at cost” or “near cost”. There may be some inconvenience and higher pricing for multinational instead of single nation manufacturing, but nothing at a disastrous level.
The long term solution is on shoring the high value tasks plus necessary supply industries. At that point, the U.S.will be decoupled from problems created by CCP economic malfeasance.
Why? EUR is much worse than USD. And, China’s RMB is much worse than EUR. Evergrande was the first shoe to drop. Both commercial and residential property are headed towards total collapse: (1)
The loss of savings, lack of disposable income, plus crippling WUHAN-19 restrictions are churning around the CCP’s no longer managed economy in all sorts of destructive ways. For example, cruise ships cannot book enough passengers to survive: (2)
China’s fragile economy is crashing down, and thre is little that Xi and his CCP Elites can do to stop it.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/default-warning-raises-investor-anxiety-evergrande-update
(2) https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Insights/Crystal-what-happened-what-could-be-next
If that doesn’t stir Dugin from his dogmatic slumber my god it ain’t going to happen.
Belmonte it is time for your doctor to update your psycho med cocktail.
Bolsheviks and transsexuals striking down white supremacy, somewhere here within UNZ? Unbelievable! Unless Karlin and his trustworthy sidekick Daniel Chieh instigate this new paradigm here, Karlin will continue to lose readership…..
This would be a global catastrophe. A hot war would wipe out 100% of Taiwan’s chip making capability. This would be immediately followed by “Stuxnet” style reprisals against MITIC reducing mainland China’s chip capacity to near zero.
“Death to China” would be the new rallying cry for American and European Christian Populism. Knowing that China’s Elite rulers would be frantic after their total failure, it is not hard to imagine an American preemptive first strike against the CCP’s nuclear arsenal.
____
There is hope.
The CCP is displaying pathetic inability to cope with the peaceful handover of Hong Kong. Why would Xi volunteer for what is guaranteed to be a much worse disaster via a hot war with Taiwan? Xi can blame the HK fiasco on his predecessors. His legacy would be permanently destroyed by a catastrophic error in Tiawan.
Expect decades of status quo stalemate between PRC & ROC. Neither side has any potential gain by forcing hostile action.
PEACE 😇
OK I went and looked at the Anatoly Karlin powerful takes discord channel. That cunt has rules.
No not safe for work content.
No personal attacks.
It’s in English.
Also before I could see what is in there I had to “complete a few more steps”. Fuck that I don’t have time.
: )

Mammals took over the world, within mammalia, humans have emerged to take over the world, through the use of very natural cognitive abilities. We all know non-man made natural events that are far more disruptive than man-made ones. People can of course create sublime things; to the extent that something is man-made versus natural, ugly and purely efficiently functional things created by man are more natural whereas more beautiful things transcend nature.
Medvedev trolls Scholz
I think that the pipelines via Ukraine will be closed after the expiration of the current contract that ends in 2024. The bifurcation has started.
America is working on replicating/replacing Taiwan’s chip-making capability at home. The process should be complete within a few years, before China takes Taiwan.
False dichotomy.
I don’t get why so many online Western right-wingers seem to believe Russia is somehow on their side and they should feel some connection to the kind of imperial views espoused by Karlin. Not saying one should regard Russia as an enemy either (imo one of the negative consequences of current developments is that it will cement hostility between Western states and Russia for many decades, affecting many issues)…but there is no logical connection between the issues Western rightists care about (most prominently the great replacement) and “Ukraine is fake and gay, let’s bring back the Russian empire”.
From a Russian point of view the present configuration of Western societies with their policies against the national core populations and promotion of all kind of degeneracy might be even advantageous, since it obviously is bound to erode any kind of traditional patriotism and make Western societies weaker and unstable.
Assuming Not-The-President Biden does not screw it up, American will have its first facility with Taiwan level chip capability in a few years. It will take more years to build quantity/capacity.
Trump’s first term started things in the right direction despite gigantic obstacles. What is now needed is a consistent run where MAGA controls the House, Senate, and Executive branch.
PEACE 😇
No wonder that German_reader is keen to hold on to his hard earned sheckles. 🙂
Christian Populists have little stake the Ukraine situation. To the extent there is a bias it is due to Not-The-President Biden’s ties to Burisma via his son. That is not an embrace of Russian imperialism. It is more Ukrainians are now reaping the fruits of bribery, corruption, and ties to the SJW/DNC.
You would have to seek out others to speak for the wacky forms of right extremism like White Nationalism.
___
I again mention that the term “right” no longer makes a great deal of sense in an American context:
— Right MegaCorporations and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce align to the DNC.
— Right wing NeoConDemocrats, also DNC aligned.
The old “left-right” spectrum is gone, buried, and never to return. Continuing to use “left-right” concepts when speaking about the U.S. is muddy thinking. You would be better served by adopting a more accurate spectrum, such as Globalist–Populist.
PEACE 😇
To be fair, and in a less trollish way – I do think that this switch to Discord is also interesting in that it does show a genuine kind of “walking the talk” insofar as the forum switches to more modern technologies, it very much shows its own desire to embrace technological evolution in spite of all of the messiness that it can have.
So in that sense, the OK BOOMER meme which to be honest I’ve been saving up for some time for the first person to object to Discord is quite reasonably accurate insofar as it aims against an arguably very fair standard – the willingness to adapt to and use new technological tools and in that sense, the sense of fondness for or at least tolerance for using new tools, which is very much a fitness advantage.
I would usually end this with my typical Embrace the Machine vibe, but I think the ultimate realization comes not so much in that notion as in a realization, which is ultimately rather affirmed by the excellent Ascent of Information that “the machine” as it might be, is ultimately very much circumscribed by the same system of utility, disutility, competition and whatnot as “nature” ever was, and “nature” is the “machine” in the same way as the “machine” is “nature.”
So, embrace the flow.
So long, and don’t forget your boosters!
If I may throw my 2 cents in…
I think that if you look at beautiful man made things you find that the transcendent build upon natural paradigm whereas the ugly tends to ignore it entirely or is hostile to it. Buildings are a good example and one that I am pretty well versed on.
If you look at classical and traditional architecture, i.e. the stuff that people generally instinctively find appealing and attractive, it is based upon all sorts of geometric proportions and rules which are actually found in nature. The golden mean or ratio, the fibonacci sequence, the proportions of man etc. were known to the ancients and used to design structures.
When you combine design principles based on the structures of the natural world with natural materials, your end product will be unsurpassed. For example, I find genuine stone to be infinitely appealing while I find synthetic stone to be quite distressing the more “real looking” it gets. It’s kind of the “uncanny valley” because I can immediately tell fake stone, but I find it less offensive if it is obviously fake.
Most modern architecture chucks both the rules and materials of the natural world aside when building, and the result speaks for itself.
When man attains his best I would say that he works with natural systems and rules to create transcendence. Ignoring natural rules and systems creates something which may dominate, but can never transcend.
EU will still buy Russian gas except pay a lot more. LNG gas is often from Russia – resold by intermediaries – gas is a commodity, it is fungible.
The German weakness (or stupidity?) means that Russia can sit back, produce less, and make money with less work. Great move sergeant Sholz. Globally, demand for gas is growing and anyone can build LNG facilities, Russia already has them.
Now how about cutting off SWIFT? It would have great visuals, and then how would they get paid or sell anything. Just do it, it feels good. Then Germany send gold as prepayment. F…ing 19th century all over again.
This will go down in economic history as one of the dumbest own goals. But Germans have never understood the big picture. At least since Bismarck.
Probably true. But it is a lot more complicated and that first step will not mean much. You have to understand that by roughly 2010-12 US gave away the full infrastructure for tech production – the endless small suppliers and machine shops that are required for a full production cycle. The essential minutia that used to exist in Silicon Valley and a few other places, the suppliers and test shops, the craft-level knowledge base.
US companies moved it for higher profits, to recreate it is close to impossible (unless there is a war situation). The companies that moved, the CEO’s who competed to be the “Businessman of the year in China” (yes, look that up, they did) are not in a position to do it. China also has an incredible manual work advantage and that gives it a cost advantage – it is a global market and that decides who sells what. Price matters.
There has not been a major tech breakthrough in 10-15 years, it is stagnating, there are really no new products, only same old ones done better – Asians have an advantage in that business environment.
Trump was about 5-10 years too late. The eight lazy years of Obama were decisive in putting a fork in the deindustrialization of US. Good luck anyway, but mistakes have consequences. And nobody in US has been held accountable for the mistakes – instead they play golf in Jackson Hole, Hamptons and Carmel. You can’t run a country that way.
it will run into cost-structure problems somewhere, but Taiwan (while having an undervalued currency) already has high wages in the semiconductor industry (and Chinese interior-level poverty outside it)
If Karlin is big on Urbit why not invite us over
Atm it looks like RF is kinda trying to treat whole UA like some base inside Crimea they were blocking in 2014, that would be preferable to them than real fighting. Not that they will not attack, but Crimea type full UA surrender is primary gamble goal. It is like a big dog and average cat – no doubt which is overall stronger, but dog still can get unpleasant eye damage from that cat. RF is surely methodically raising temperature – there is a request of Putin to use military force abroad at RF Federation Soviet.
…But also we are approching Moscow time pretty zones of 20:02, 20:22 or 22:22 at the evening, so who knows lol
Afraid you are behind the times – military doctrine has moved on. No need for a ring of allies around China, so that they can be bottled up and kept from projecting power to the US West Coast.
What has replaced it is a more advanced and foolproof method of defense: turning the West Coast into a complete shithole, so the Chinese would not want it. They know that they will be barbarically attacked by feral blacks and antifa child-molesters, if they try to take over Seattle.
They also know that if they came to San Francisco they would be set on by raving derelicts and would slip on their shit, when trying to climb the hills, abrading their knees on the cobblestones, in an analogy to the punji sticks that the Vietnamese employed.
Finally, they know that if they tried to take LA, then roving Latinx bandits would derail their supply trains and steal their rations and ammo, so that they had to resort to eating garbage and throwing stones. So, why bother?
Not a bad analogy. What is the morale now among UA military, militias, government officials, businessmen? Are they ready to fight? Or are most looking for a way out, to not be the last fool to die for a losing cause? There is also the explicit threat to hold them “accountable for crimes” – a rather flexible definition. How many will take a chance? Not everybody will manage to run away. And there are apartments, assets, family – who wants to lose it?
Post-Maidan Ukraine only chance was to be peaceful, to avoid conflict, to play it smart, stay quiet. They didn’t, they went for a war and big pronouncements (“in NATO now!!!”). Given the situation on the ground, the geography, this was a losing strategy. In December, Russia called the bluff and the West promptly run away and strongly suggested that Ukies just martyr themselves to make for some good visuals. Now will Ukies martyr themselves? How many?
Very sad, but stupidity has its consequences.
Who knows why you would make videos so fake that even citizens who trust the authorities will find it impossible to believe it?
I’m guessing that conventional historians of late stages in “Putinism”, will be writing that this is “typical symptom of changing priorities of the 2010s and early 2020s, as they move from more hybrid dictatorship (dictatorship with higher investment in democratic window dressing) to less hybrid dictatorship (dictatorship with lower investment in democratic window dressing).”
So, Winston Smith, says “2 + 2 = 5”.
And now we must say, “I didn’t see almost mature, green oak tree leaf on a young tree in the taiga. This video is February in Rostov. I didn’t see an almost mature green oak tree leaf on a young tree in the taiga. This is February in Rostov”.
–
This conventional historians view would match a bit of liberal mood of the last years, when they discuss about how appeasement of public opinion seemed to be less of priority for the authorities.
However, (without claiming I have much historical knowledge), I feel like it isn’t really so much of change of trend in the larger multi-century view, even of the same security institution.
If we returned to events of last century and it’s not like the public explanation to the citizens, was so much more logical than “I didn’t see green oak tree leaf”
I was taught that the epic Beowulf was probably brought over to England.
Seems to be a substantial propaganda drive to call the Saxons some multicult troop, to echo modern Britain. Here there is some dumb article which cites variegated skull shape. (they once used the shape of an old, Roman-era skull in England to argue that it was of black man, but it was pure junk science, with the analysis basically phoney)
https://www.courthousenews.com/human-skulls-reveal-new-clues-about-early-anglo-saxon-ancestry/
Any idea of how they were able to take over England?
I’ve wondered if the Romans somehow destroyed the native clan system, (maybe, people began to marry farther away) which meant that there was no military robustness with a systems breakdown.
I’ve heard native English people say that the area was depopulated, and that when the Anglo-saxons moved into it, there was an agricultural revolution, which, though I am admittedly ignorant about archeology, strikes me as somewhat dubious and pozzed. But maybe, politically necessary, for the people in Wales, Northern England and Scotland?
Some indication that there was a big population shift in England also in the late bronze age, with the significance (invasion or not) not definitely established, but it it tempting to believe that England (not including the rest of Britain or Ireland) had another big invasion, probably of Celts.
One theory might be that the homeland of this group was Christianized and pacified, leading to the Saxons becoming the next closest pagan, martial power. They were Christianized and pacified, in turn, leading to the Vikings becoming the next closest pagan, martial power.
The Normans of course, were Christians by the time they invaded, but they had clear technological advances. But maybe also the others?
So Putin got his legal licence to use force abroad but not in UA yet, just “in Donbas”, but himself still mumbled something about “hopeful negotiations” – in words raising, but also stalling a bit at same time.
One of my more radical ideas is to require progressive talking heads to always have Jackson Pollock paintings greenscreened-in behind them.
In another news, events have indicated that Zhirinovsky, is not part of the inner circle of numerologist astrologers (hopefully not politically correct way to say Kabbalists) in the Kremlin.
But who can blame them, for not inviting such a character? This troll who could have said “9am on 22nd”, but decided to make millions of people stay awake for 4am. Would you invite such antisocial people to your inner circle?
Haven’t yet read Beowulf myself, but iirc it’s said to contain noticeable Christian influence. So even if the subject matter may be older, it must at least have been re-worked somewhat in Anglo-Saxon England.
iirc it’s supposed that there was a resurgence of native rule after the last Roman troops had left (so maybe some British warlord was the historical basis for King Arthur; it seems to be generally accepted that the Britons managed to check the Germanic advance for several decades and there really was something like the battle at Mons Badonicus, so they weren’t totally de-militarized), but what form exactly that took seems hard to pin down. I think it’s not even clear how widely Latin had been spoken in Roman Britain. So a lot is conjecture. I can’t claim to have any firm opinion on the issue myself (seems clear though that there was substantial Germanic settlement, so not just some elite takeover, even if it wasn’t anywhere close to demographic replacement either).
The Romans isn’t just Rome, but an entire civilization sphere with all kinds of (mostly Caucasian) people either citizens or slaves. Nothing strange with North Africans entering Britain, but almost never the Sub-Saharan Black except as slaves. (This is where Cephalometry will come into good use)
Don’t think all the pre-historic demographic substitution between peoples, e.g. Celts -> Germanics, is “woke” in any meaningful sense. But that requires a TradCon understanding of ethnos – ethnos or culture(religion) – culture(religion) difference, not racial.
I think this dichotomy between the transcendent and nature is one of those really unfortunate ideas that crept into Western thought from Gnosticism. It’s a big part of the reason the West is such a mess today.
One reason I like the Eastern Orthodox form of Christianity more is because of it’s sense that the Divine is “immanent” in creation.
I believe, that recovering a sense of the Earth as sacred will be a key part of the path back to health for the West.
After all, it is said that when God made the Earth he stepped back and saw that it was indeed good. He saw that his work was beautiful. And yet we desecrate it, treat it like so much dead matter, and not the Divine creation it is.
A lot of them will love those if you give them better contrast between the green screen and themselves.
Try pitch your ideas to DeSantis or Noem. (They’d rather blacklist Progressive talking heads and take entire channels/programs off air)
I’d rather describe this as a prediction that history will repeat, if you will, as farce.
The uncomfortable implicit part of this issue is that the counterpart, Globohomo, is most definitely not on our side either — indeed they explicitly hate people like me (not to mention you, still being under some military occupation and all). Our societies following where Globohomo leads seems plainly idiotic and self-destructive.
Regarding Anatoly, I was surprised at the vehemence of the current missive. The part about absorbing and gaining 40m in human capital seemed a very Karlinesque point though.
On to the geopolitical issues. At the time of this writing, Putin’s actual moves have seemed modest, if one accepts that Donbas and Crimea were not going to rejoin the rest of Ukraine. We don’t know if the Ukraine joining Nato thing is finished though.
For my addled country Sweden the strategic lessons so far seem to be (i) we can’t spend the military budget at the bar indefinitely, and (ii) we should really avoid a large enough subpopulation of Russians forming within our borders, even if peaceful, in order to avoid future problems. And, while some are eager to draw the opposite conclusion, (iii) don’t join Nato.
I don’t actually think it is a false dichotomy, having seen it in action at times.
There are certain assumptions in the worldview of SJWs, and that include that total inefficacy of violence as pursued in a manner seen traditionally as masculine, such as war for resources, etc. By having it restored as valid will also necessarily alter the manner by which the current importance of “soft power” holds as sway over everything else. People admire the strong horse, of course, but more exactly, people want to become the strong horse and will adopt the measures of the strong horse, ultimately forcing them to lose their present mannerisms.
So it is hopeful.
I’m sure there is a gig battle now between the Atlanticist lobby and the industrialist lobby in Germany. If the Atlanticists think that the cancellation of NS2 will force to pump gas via the Ukrainian pipelines, they are wrong. Orban has shown to have far bigger testicles than Scholz.
You agree with Saker. He says Russia is gradually turning up the ‘pain dial’ no just for Ukraine but also for the whole European Union.
What’s shocking to me is the pretense that Putin is some wild-eyed lunatic who is making outlandish demands. As I have maintained all throughout this crisis, I put the blame of escalation squarely on the West.
Putin tried to get a fair hearing by asking nicely for years. He got ignored or laughed at. He naturally concluded that the only way to get people’s attention and respect was to play hardball. Unfortunately, he’s not wrong.
Indeed, but it’s a delicate balance. What worries me is the risk of a miscalculation or a provocation. I do not believe Putin wants to invade but he is forced to up the ante all the time to finally initiate a negotiated settlement. As part of that drive, the risks keep increasing. As the West foolishly turns down every demand, he can’t be seen backing down so he must escalate. It becomes a vicious spiral.
It would be enough for a hotheaded Ukrainian regiment to set off a firefight which could very well escalate far beyond what anyone imagined, and at that point events would take on a logic on their own. That’s why I refused to exclude the chances of an invasion, even if I, like you, do not see them as Putin’s primary aim. He may yet be forced into a situation where he can’t back out politically.
Germany isn’t really under military occupation, that’s a somewhat dumb talking point, all those transatlantic think tanks like German Marshall fund etc. matter a thousand times more than any American troops still in Germany. The key issue is that certain harmful assumptions have become internalized among Germans and that its freedom of action in foreign affairs is very constrained.
I agree about Globohomo, obviously I desire a very different state of affairs.
Anyway, maybe something good might still come of this, if there’s indeed a permanent confrontation with Russia and Western Europe is re-militarized, the advance of wokeness might at least be slowed, because they need patriotic white men for the army (and maybe that might eventually lead to other options). On the other hand, it might just as well intensify persecution of right-wingers, since they could be smeared as Russian agents and stooges, and it’s unfortunate if some seem rather too eager to play that role.
Wishful thinking Mr. Chieh. The Chinese are often proudly proclaiming – and who am I to disagree? – that their country’s rise is the most peaceful in history. The only real invasion threat from China would be Taiwan for natural historical reasons. Other than that, there is little to no scope for any imperialist adventures backed by force from Beijing. If this is the new world, it looks remarkably stable; even stale.
If China is the new strong horse the message it sends is harmonious and peaceful rise. This is not just their rhetoric, it is also matched by their actions (silly but ultimately unimportant border tussles notwithstanding).
‘Thucydides trap’ would predict war but in our MAD world, such serious conflagrations are rightly considered minimal even if the MIC has a moneyed incentive to convince you otherwise. As much as you may resent it, the world is becoming more peaceful and less violent than the imperialist 19th or 20th centuries. SJWs will continue to notch up wins and chuds will seethe into obscurity.
This doesn’t make any sense. You’ve fallen for Western propaganda. The power of the US, the centre of SJWdom, isn’t based just on “soft power”, but rather on a very real willingness to kill lots of people by bombing other countries and inflicting massive economic suffering on entire populations through sanctions.
Similar dynamics apply in the domestic context in Western countries. The problem isn’t a general culture of non-violence, the problem is (at least in my country) that Antifa types can beat up political opponents and destroy their property, and almost nobody thinks it’s a big deal, because the targets are already demonized by the entire establishment.
Then it means I’m absolutely wrong and should just wait for big fireworkings soon, lol
And they say that Putin is the master of 4D chess!
Sly moves Biden…sly moves…
adopt the measures of the strong horse, ultimately forcing them to lose their present mannerisms.
Does this mean that the Dems, who are co-equals with the Pubs as the War Parties, will now also become enthusiastic defense spending advocates?
I think from a systemic perspective, this is actually quite senseless to think this way and incredibly limiting. Violence is a tool like any other, it has certain constraints and affords certain opportunities. Over time, nations and people will find ways around those constraints, as we’re already seeing with hybrid warfare and so on. The idea that “MAD means that warfare will never return as a major force” is a bit like arguing that “the existence of armor means that claws will never matter again as a major force” which is quite missing the point.
In a world with limited resources, there will always be conflict. So as long as force has utility, and it obviously does, as German_Reader noted of antifa(and I would mention various other guises that liberal states implement force, such as destruction of livelihood), it’ll find a way to manifest itself.
China’s rise as of late has been arguably peaceful – though it is also somewhat self-proclaimed, given the various border disputes. But of course, it didn’t magically come into possession of all of its land and it certainly doesn’t seem like it’ll be able to continue to make progress in conflicts without a substantial military backing(even from a defensive consideration).
But yes, fundamentally I think that “SJWs”(such as there is a thing) rely on certain errors of judgment that are rhetorically popular(thus the widespread reach) but ultimately may in fact be quite brittle in the coming years. No doubt it, too, will evolve to address changing conditions, however.
It might mean that they’ll lock up American rightists as Russian agents…maybe Tucker Carlson will be sent to Guantanamo as a Putin stooge? Such measures might be appropriate after all, if there’s an existential struggle with a resurgent Russia seeking to undermine Western democracies.
imo Chieh’s views are really naive. iirc he once mentioned that a big part of his political awakening was Gamergate, some scandal about crazy feminists trying to take over video gaming journalism (or something of the sort, I’m not going to look up the details). If you think you’re only up against crazy pink-haired SJWs who’d fold immediately if you just were manly enough to show them who’s boss, these silly paeans to the virtue of violence might make sense.
I mean, it’s not impossible, but there are multiple ways of dealing with disappointment. The Democratic party can certainly flip to funding defense as a focus while claiming that Republicans, starting with Trump, have always been traitors to the American way and underlined by Jan 6th. The mythology is there if they want to develop it.
There are contradictions and hypocrisy involved but ultimately that’s the way of all things.
I’m actually kind of shocked. But I suppose I have more of an interest in myths. The great novels hold almost no interest for me, but not so the myths, as I’m fascinated by their connection to history and ancient people. There is something magical about knowing that the Song of Roland was recited at Hastings before the battle (even if the song may not be 100% accurate to history)
Have read the Nibelungenlied. While I did enjoy parts of it, on the whole, it seems rather primitive and gory. Afraid I did not like Tale of the Heike much either – if anything, it was worse, and seemed not as inventive, IMO, though maybe that is my Western mindset. I’m probably biased, but I think the Tain is a mix of really primitive, combined with sheer genius. Some parts of the King Arthur mythos are pretty good, others primitive. IMO, the Middle Ages has nothing as sophisticated as the Illiad or Aeneid (my favorite). Still, there is a wide collection of oral tales that can hold a deep interest, by making comparisons and reconstructing a common origin – they give one an idea of the connectedness of Europe.
Sometimes, reading old myths, one does wonder if it is true that people in the Middle Ages had lower IQ, and that they needed to undergo hundreds of years of selection to be able to achieve the industrial revolution. But that is probably too harsh.
In my high school, Beowulf was required reading. (probably used to be the same throughout much of America) the more advanced students also had to read Grendel by the American John Gardner, which I think is also worth reading. I really like the dark humor of the ending passage.
Heh. That certainly was my introduction to politics, but my thinking has evolved to become fairly orthogonal to politics, which I find to be more akin to performance art than anything else(and largely a waste of time).
https://minordissent.substack.com/p/politics-is-worse-than-video-games
Nonetheless, its less about people “folding” and more that people are strenuously driven to resist, and in doing so, they adopt any measures of their enemies that they see as successful. In doing so, they become the same and lose their original “virtue” as it might be, having essentially having to altered their essence despite any surface presentation.
Thanks!
I had heard of that composer – he sounds great! I will certainly check him out.
If Putin decides Russia can’t escape the cost of sanctions and the best strategy economically is to move it onto an autarkic war grounding, then he’ll be resolved to grab as much land as possible. (The same dynamic with with the US did with Japan before the Pacific War, while Japan was slowly eating the face of China)
BTW, have you ever read Herodotus? (mixes myths with history)
He’s the guy who mentioned Carthaginians circum-navigated Africa. I find it really a fascinating claim.
Don’t want to say that I 100% believe it, but I would at least give it 50/50 odds. They were funded by the pharaoh. Potentially, would have been a lot easier, before full Bantu explosion. Coastal malaria would not have been near as widespread. (it was agriculture that unleashed it)
Seems also like a natural goal for Egyptians to want to know about the distant reaches of Africa and have the resources to fund an expedition.
And it also fits into the wider framework of great unknown explorations. Such as Pacific Islanders evidently bringing the sweet potato to the Americas.
I know, certainly a defect in my half-education I need to remedy at some point. I’d like to learn Old English, some texts (e.g. Battle of Maldon) sound pretty interesting, and it’s fascinating that there was such a wide use of the vernacular in England already so early. Hopefully I’ll get around to it one day.
Another defect in my half-education…I haven’t read the Iliad. I know the Aeneis though. Obviously a very sophisticated work, but it also felt a bit artificial to me at times. tbh the aspects most interesting to me were the parts dealing with Roman history and imperial ideology (Aeneas’s shield with its scenes depicting republican heroes, Augustus as culmination of Roman history receiving ambassadors from exotic lands bringing tribute etc.). Need to read it again some time.
Thanks, sounds interesting, might look at it.
There is no such thing as western democracies. You are all totalitarian shitholes.
No, but I want to (have already pirated a translation). Had put reading those Greek classics off, because I thought I might re-learn Greek at some time (had it for three years at school, but forgot most of it) and could read them in the original. Seems like a distant prospect now, so I started reading some last year in translation. Read Thucydides, which I’d definitely recommend, fascinating work. Also read Polybius…interesting, but ultimately pretty boring imo, devoid of all literary merit (also didn’t like his authorial persona that much, he attacks other historians for their inaccuracies, but is quite blatantly biased himself).
Strange thought, southern Africa must have been very different then.
Never used Discord, but my impression is that it is not truly a free speech platform (such as Unz is), hence the necessity for rules.
A lot of people disdain some of the crazier articles here, but, I like them, because I think they are are necessary to show a commitment to free speech. It goes beyond some philosophical idea – it makes the site fun, and rather unique.
Occasionally, I look at twitter. IMO, its quality has dropped a lot, as some of the more interesting and provocative people have been kicked off it. There are still a few interesting people on it, but I’ve never bothered to start an account because I fear they will be gone any day, and meanwhile, I would be too tempted to post things that they would ban me for. As well, as probably give me greater priority in some list of politicals to persecute.
Of course, it was unfinished, when Virgil died. His wish was that it be burnt, but Augustus prevented it – supposedly. For all its flaws, still a thing of incredible beauty. Probably beating a dead horse when I say this, but my favorite part is the fall of Troy. There’s just something so amazing about it. The language, and the iconography, the way it invokes first of all hubris, but also paterfamilias and filial piety.
I am sure it was quite different, when the Dutch first showed up – at least the Western Cape. The Bantu did not have the technology to dig deep wells, and it is arid, so they couldn’t live there.
But I don’t mean only South Africa, but also much of Western and Eastern Africa. Pointed this out in a snide comment I made about Whoopi Goldberg not too long ago, but, shockingly, Guinea-Bissau was populated with hunter-gathers past about 1000 AD. It takes clear-cutting for malaria.
I agree with you, but it’s important to be clear about agency here.
In your scenario, the primary responsibility would be on the West. This does not gel with the narrative that Putin is a wild-eyed imperialist hellbent on conquest from the outset (the MSM narrative and Karlin’s right-wing mimicry), but rather was pushed into a situation where he had no other realistic exit. Who was doing the pushing? It’s a question our media would never dare ask, much less answer honestly.
Correction: meant to say Phoenicians.
Meant to say they took it from the Americas, so most likely round trip which actually is a lot more impressive. At least it seems more reasonable than the Kon-Tiki theory.
I’ve joined something called ‘cykelkök’, a Swedish term that means “cyclekitchen” in a transliteration but whose proper translation would be something akin to a “repair garage”. Kök (kitchen) is often used informally to signal a relaxed environment. It’s hard to get these nuances across languages.
The basic premise is that most bicycle repairs can be made by yourself, provided that you get access to the full range of tools required and have some amount of professional help to show you the ropes. It’s both a call for cheapskates in equal amount to people who like to learn something new and challenge themselves. As an office rat, who spends most of my days with R, stata, python etc, getting my hands dirty is almost cathartic. It’s shocking how helpless most modern men are even in trivial matters, such as changing a tire. I am no less guilty!
The annual fee is just 100 SEK, basically a cheap lunch. I have volunteered in the past with homeless shelters but always found the quality of the volunteers to be uneven, some who genuinely cared for the downtrodden mixed in with opportunists who simply viewed it as an opportunity to puff their CV (and it showed in their attitudes).
By contrast, the quality of the people here is astounding. I am not quite certain why. Perhaps because being a volunteer bike repairer is low-status, and thus repels opportunists. Most of us are not even full-time volunteers but get help from others, which is even less reason to brag about. At the same time, this garage is located in a fairly expensive part of town with lots of educated people milling about, e.g., I met an exchange student from Korea last time I was there. So it seems to attract high-quality people who are simultaneously not status-seekers. Best of both worlds.
I’m skeptical of generic advice about “putting yourself out of your comfort zone”, but would certainly recommend people to spend some time doing something that that’s a bit off the beaten track. You can often find amazing people if you are willing to follow a niche and learn a thing or two along the way. I think practical work is underrated, even if only volunteer work, especially if you spend as much of your time on computers as I do.
A few years ago certain private rightwing communities were kicked off Discord, which, apart from the usual political bias, implies D were listening in on what was going on or perhaps even searching out dissidents. So much for “discord”. Based on this, I would consider Discord to be at best to be a temporary platform.
There is also the issue that you appear to have just one identity shared across all the discords you may be using. Seems potentially troublesome. I prefer to compartmentalize.
You make some good points. Multinational MegaCorporations whole headquartered in the U.S. are actually enemies of U.S. citizens. Restructuring taxes & regulation to incentivize on shoring of jobs is part of the MAGA Reindustrialization initiative.
You are far too fatalistic about Americas chances. While the U.S. has given away far too much, there is substantial native industrial knowledge available to drive MAGA Reconstruction. Other countries send their kids here to go to U.S. Engineering schools. The U.S. needs to fix the domestic labor market and university admissions so that U.S. citizens can obtain STEM degrees and have a career without being undercut by H1B visas and/or outsourcing.
It will take a concerted effort for an extended period. Far more than one President can deliver. However, it will become much easier once the virtuous cycle becomes visible to everyone — Americans buying American goods made by American citizens.
The WUHAN-19 global pandemic came from a CCP lab. Beijing Biden and his owner Xi will take the blame for the economic pain. This primes the American people to resist Chinese manipulation & exploitation.
PEACE 😇
It is possible, but it will take a decade or more – unfortunately US political system is not stable enough to give anyone that much time.
That would be a good start. You accuse me of ‘fatalism’, so how about the MAGA Trump guy was there for 4 years and restricting H1Bs can be done under any pretext any time. And he didn’t. If you can explain why, I will be less fatalistic. There is something screwy in Washington that even super-MAGA seems unable to fix.
If you would ever become a good bicycle repairer, you will probably be earning more money than most doctors and lawyers.
A few years ago we were living in a city with bicycles. (Not Stockholm or Sweden, although these places sound attractive). My girlfriend thinks it is a good idea to buy a bicycle for transport, whereas I wisely follow instinct not to.
Cost of her bicycle repair was usually more than value of buying new bicycle each time. We thought maybe the repair people are throwing broken class and spiky objects in the streets so they can increase the replacement of the peoples’ tires.
Lose the bicycle, join me and German Reader as natural walking people. You can notice that walkers are even more minimalist and ecological than bicycle. We are even more fashionable than you. Even from Brooklyn, there is AaronB who can appreciate our rejection of the “metal, industrialized bicycle, that only moves in a straight line and represents the inability of man to accept his multi-directional freedom”.
they adopt any measures of their enemies that they see as successful.
That might explain why from this distance the differences between the WWII Nazis and Bolsheviks seem like minor details.
whereas I wisely follow instinct not to.
You would be wise to not ignore her ideas, good or bad, too often.
That is, if you want to keep this girlfriend around.
I like that idea, but they should also be compelled to wear clown shoes and hair while discussing their ideas. The problem is that the Pollock paintings alone will only signal to many that the speakers are impressive aesthetes with a deep appreciation for the finer things in life.
The Western Miliitary District has 400,000 personnel definged very widely not of course counting Belarussians (yet).
Soon you will come over to the Dark Side, and start repairing cars.
Just imagine your sense of pleasure, when you call up the garage, ask how much for a certain repair, need to verbally dance around and combat the mechanic’s efforts not to give you a price (“We do a diagnosis – to get you in the door, sucker!”). Shrug off his coded insults, ask again, finally, get told the price ($1000), and then order cheap parts off ebay, and do it yourself for 1/50 of that, while also spreading the word that the guy is a jerk.
And I did that a few years ago. Now the price would probably be $2000.
Btw does anyone have a method how to invite Ano4/Bashibuzuk back to this forum? Also except me, does anyone here remember AltanBakshi?
What happened to those dudes and what made them never return.. especially Bashibuzuk used to post here everyday.
Had not thought of getting them to wear wigs, but it is a good idea.
Part of my original plan was to somehow get them to dye their hair neon colors, ideally in a color-coded system according to their level of crazy. Not sure how to go about it, but, maybe, getting the government to mail them free neon hair dye would be a start.
BTW, I rather like those long, pointy Mexican boots that they make in Matehuala. Not sure what they are called.
As I said before, I think it is mostly a tribute to the alienating power of the Great Awokening. The phenomena seems to be most pronounced in Anglo countries, where Intersectional Wokeness is strongest and public opposition to it weakest. It’s pretty funny to follow Zemmour’s campaign in France, the things he says in public speeches and on French MSN discussion programs would just produce some kind of spasm and meltdown in Britain, but it means the French right remains part of the political system
There is a certain logic to it as well in the light of the Intersectional revolution; racially, Russians, whether Slavic or Central Asian can be seen as preferable to the racial groups the Woke tend to idolise and who are presented as being the darling children of the future of Anglo countries, then there is all the anti white patriarchy, anti-heteronormativity, trans and genderqueer stuff as well. It is weirdly influential in the culture and institutions
This looks like it doesn’t exist in Russia, instead Russia gives the impression of being a kind of normal 1990s country. And Russia also looks like it is striking back against the idea of the inevitable liberal-progressive tide of history, there is usually this underlying assumption with the liberal Anglo-West, almost that in cultural and political terms they are always going to be all powerful and all conquering, pretty much everywhere.
I also think a lot of this is projection from another political context and doesn’t have that much to do with what is going on in the region, e.g. Ukraine and the Belarusian opposition may be aligned strategically with Western countries, but have little or nothing to do with Anglo-Woke ideology or these kind of social tensions, which will mostly appear incomprehensible.
As a matter of course, ,I taught my daughter how to repair a puncture on a pedal bike. It turns out that it is nowadays such a rare skill that she could walk into a job at any bike shop in town. She could fix other things too.
It is weirdly influential in the culture and institutions…
Should read:
It is weirdly influential in the culture and institutions, especially education, where it seems to have made a strong impact on teenagers and people in their early 20s.
Thankyou for that point. I overlooked it. I had been envisioning Russia doing something unexpected like capturing Livov first (by way of example). He still might but his legalism suggests maybe not given your observation.
Like you, I really enjoyed reading their commentary here, especially Bashibusuk’s. I do remember that Bashi took a sabbatical from here for a good while, and then miraculously made a return for a short while. And then he disappeared again?…..It would be great to hear from him again,but I have no idea how to lure him back. He provided viewpoints that were very unique and enlightening.
Hey Bashibuzuk, if you read this, come on back and let us know what you’re doing, what do you think about all of this Ukraine/Russia war stuff?
Tbf he just said it, but we should look at legal text of permisission if this is really defined so narrowly, it might be not, was not looking myself.
Heard a rumor that they sent Sheila Jackson Lee over to Ukraine to deal with the crisis. Despite my best efforts, I can’t seem to confirm it, though.
At least half of them, and especially the small fries, are toeing the Cathedral line for money. When the dominant ideology change, they will disappear or in a few cases switch to extolling the virtues of Conservatism or Reaction.
If some hard Right government wants to do it, don’t make them clowns, take a note from how Socialist ideology was being imposed initially in the Eastern Bloc, or send them directly to labor camps.
undermine Western democracies.
I think that we are doing well enough on our own with that project.
We should wear Leibniz wigs.
Make the Universe Logical Again.
MULA!
I subscribe to the view that the urban centres were greatly depopulated by plague and to some extent the countryside. The Angles at least were already present and had been for centuries in small numbers in fishing villages along the East Coast. They were able to move and settle up river without great violence. The clay soils of the Midlands were unfarmable with Roman technology. In the 7th C the Saxons invented the heavy plough. So the German speaking population exploded in a Malthusian manner. They became the rulers of the provinces of Flavia Ceasariensis – Mercia and Maxima Ceasariensis – Northumbria. The Western facing Severn Valley and the peninsula from Cornwall to Wiltshire (Stonehenge) stayed Romano British for much longer and was the Roman Province of Britannia Secunda. In between the German speakers, the Romano British spoke mainly Late Spoken Latin. In the West, Brythonic (early Welsh) regained ground. The East coast cities, London, Lincoln, York were never quite abandoned and each relates to a province. The Saxons settled in Brittania Prima. Their first rulers actually had Celtic names.
These are mostly the ideas of Professors Barry Cunliffe, Stephen Oppenheimer and Caitlin Green mashed together.
LOL. I’ve always liked the expression “whigs on the green.”
Correct. They are more in line with a place like Poland. There is certainly some awareness that the West likes gay people so they will allow some support and wave rainbow flags for Western cameras, but the crazy woke stuff is unthinkable.
If you look at the old articles about the invasion published last year (even some from 6 months ago).
The articles’ theme is usually something like.
First, they will trick as much of the Ukrainian army as possible, to move into East Ukraine. This is to trap Ukrainian forces near Donbass, where they can be trapped by the movements from Belarus and Crimea.
Then would be vast bombardment of artillery and airstrikes to destroy Ukrainian forces and fixed positions.
With Ukrainian army trapped and facing vast bombardment in East Ukraine, they will surround it from the other side.
Surrounded, Ukrainian army would be destroyed in cauldrons in East Ukraine.
Precision strikes and artillery directed by drones, will be most of the fighting.
With Ukrainian forces destroyed, West Ukraine would be relatively undefended.
–
Here was one interpretation.


–
But while they have tried to created casus belli for the smaller trapping operation, to trick the Ukrainian forces to buildup in East Ukraine.
There still hasn’t been created casus belli for the larger invasion. E.g. There is no large terrorist attack yet in Moscow.
This is unlike in 1999 where there was elaborate casus belli created.
Currently, it is feeling more like Syria in 2015, where there was presented almost no casus belli.
Easy to explain:
Fixing visas (and many other issues) require the Legislative branch to change the law. Between the DNC and establishment GOP(e), the anti-MAGA coalition had enough votes to block visa law changes during Trump’s 1st term.
The next MAGA President will have a MAGA House. The Senate is more problematic. Between the Filibuster (60 votes) and GOP(e) swamp rats like Mitch McConnell, it is unlikly that MAGA will have unlimited freedom. Much more will be possible, but compromise is still required.
Politics is the art of the possible. MAGA needs to take what it can obtain each congressional Session and know that further gains will be made in the next session. To use the American football idiom, It is a game of field position..
The SJW Globalist war parties spent decades creating this problem. It will take decades to fix the damage they created.
___
Key is squashing Low-IQ yahoos before they can derail the movement. Those who whinge and lie about the unobtainable, willingly give Aide & Comfort to the Enemy. Irrational morons who demand instant, total victory must be ruthlessly shamed & forced out. Let them join the anti-intellectual SJW side and spread their poison there.
PEACE 😇
Everything is about status. Learn how to hack it, to up end the system, and everything becomes mechanistic.
_____
Heard the official word: the dollar store has hiked their price up to $1.25. Probably won’t be too long before they hike it again, and again, and again. Will be a pretty big signal of decline to a lot of Americans, IMO.
“National Security Council” meeting was more funny than understood before.
It was a live meeting where they discuss about whether to recognize “DNR” and “LNR”.
So, it was live meeting for 6pm. Shown on all television and media as such an important live television.
From their watches, it was actually pre-recorded many hours earlier.
But the scenes where Putin signed the recognition were 10am. So they even have filmed tis scene before they have the meeting where they discuss whether to recognize.
–
So it’s all a fake meeting, which is staged after as a pure acting performance, then they edit together difference scenes.
In addition, they seem to enjoy the artificiality so much as a kind of pleasure in itself, that they film the signing of the agreement, before they film the discussions about whether to sign the agreement.
What I don’t understand, is how can you not start laughing during the video filming? I would find it impossible not to laugh while trying to do such an acting, in the wrong order. I guess this is another reason to add to “why am I office plankton, rather than billionaire Kremlin oligarch”.
By Pepe Escobar
So, has Putin decided to hunt and liquidate the perpetrators of the Odessa massacre?
I don’t know about yahoos, and my iq seems ok, so it will be a bit of a challenge to squash me in my search for the instant gratification (it works most of the time).
Let me tell you how MAGA could do it: they are the administration, they process all paperwork, incl. visas. That gives them all the power they need. You read the law and the requirements are there: educational, work, financial, medical, etc… process it for 18 months, and then send back for some more documents. Move the consulates, close them, etc… declare that due to business, trade, medical, terrorist ’emergency’ processing will stop for 6 months, etc… Demand proof for each ‘irreplaceable position’.
Do you not understand how a byrocracy works? The MAGA chief had all the power, he just chose not to use it, until it was too late. Or maybe he didn’t really want to do it, he just wanted you to think that he does, but can’t….is that not a distinct possibility?
We were watching for many weeks all the buildup of Rosgvardia units.
Much of this buildup included Kadyrov’s most elite units, that are specialized in combat against political opponents within the Chechen Republic. What is the explanation for why they are driving and establishing tents in Ukraine’s border and Crimea, thousand kilometers from their home, including his most loyalist unit named after his father?
E.g. Kadyrov is not the “world’s least paranoid leader”, so would he usually like to have his most important units for internal control, to be “vacation” a thousand kilometers from Grozny, with all their armor vehicles? They are doing something important, to be traveling so far, with all their equipment.
So, either this is a genius bluff, or they are going to occupy somewhere.
What do you think?
There were sometimes hints it could be bluff, but this was not a balanced judgement, but more reflects our desire to try to write optimistic comments. We naturally want to believe the optimistic scenario and which allows us to deny there will soon be war with thousands of deaths.
But, of course, more likely explanation, is they are going to occupy somewhere. “If it walks like a duck..”
E.g. I found a video of OMON. (https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-174/#comment-5174523) Are there are some anti-government protests they have to imprison, which are co-incidentally near the Ukrainian border? No, but there can be protests soon on the other side of border.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/23022022-motivating-factors-behind-russias-recent-independence-recognition-oped/
I’m that way with vehicles myself and it is very freeing. It’s also nice to have a brake job done the same day rather than it being a two week scheduling ordeal waiting for the mechanic. Plus mechanics often use cheap parts, when I spend for the good stuff since I don’t want to do it twice.
The labor rate at my local Ford Stealership was $125 and hour last time I was in there and in all honesty I’m better at mechanical diagnostic than most mechanics I have seen. I was ripped off a few times when I was younger and I have no wish to continue on that track.
Though I keep my stuff old since I don’t want to get into the heavily computerized stuff. That is another kettle of fish entirely.
I would strongly encourage anyone to get into doing as much repair on their own as possible. It’s honestly not that complicated (even engine rebuilds) if one can follow steps and think logically. If one starts with simple things the skills build quickly.
I remember when I started out doing the brakes on my rusty Ford Ranger armed with a discount stubby 1/4″ ratchet set from Aldi’s…Painful to think of now, but one has to start somewhere!
Are you sure you haven’t already implemented this plan? I’m pretty sure you have and are just playing modest for the forum.
I mean, have you been to a college town lately? My nearest village has two colleges and let me tell you, it’s self implementing!
Not changing the watches seems like an oddly sloppy simple mistake. It’s hard to imagine that they went to all that trouble and missed that.
I guess to err is human or they don’t really give a rip.
A123 would like us to believe that Biden can leave the southern border basically open for all intents and purposes (and I know first hand that the lawlessness down there is even worse than generally assumed) but Trump, the poor thing, could do nothing to at least reduce the number of visas granted. His hands, unlike Biden’s, were totally tied. In reality, I remember him bragging in 2019 that more legal immigrants than ever were coming to the US, such was his inconsistency and ineptitude.
That explains Skripal.
Btw, I don’t know what virtues spy chief Naryshkin has but composure and good oratory are not among them.
Humor for Philip Owen.
Naryshkin should be nominated for Oscar then if he also knew everything in advance and was just acting:
To be fair, those are not always demanded traits in a spy chief – being a bit twitchy and evasive can be a good thing. But being unprepared is likely not.
Which part of Russia will Dmitry move to, after he renounces materialism? Tuva, or Chuvashia?
As a bilingual German and English speaker (who presumably also has familiarity with some German dialects), how much of Old English can you understand?
Spies present as boring and nondescript, they wouldn’t draw attention to themselves with twitchiness. Their natural demeanor is of the type that go unnoticed in the background.
After the war, when Poland was occupied, its population was 25 million. This was similar to that of central and western Ukraine where the people would really hate Russian occupation.
For a few years the Soviets kept about 300,000 troops there as they subdued the country through mass executions, arrests, and deportations and wiped out resistance.* By the late 1940s as a puppet government took hold, the Soviets could keep the permanent garrison number down to only 62,000 soldiers and let the established puppet government keep order, though of course there were Soviet troops surrounding Poland in case it was necessary to crush a revolt.
*There are of course differences. In 1945 Poles were exhausted by World War II, with millions dead and revolts such as Warsaw Uprising already crushed, while Ukrainians would be much more “fresh.” OTOH modern Ukrainians are probably not as tough as 1940s Poles (though modern Russians are not as cruel as 1940s Soviets also).
He claims he’s part Jewish so Birobizhan could be a legit destination.
Question for you. Why Zelensky did not order his troops to shell and bomb entering Russian columns? How does Ukraine expect serious sanctions and reactions from the West as it acts as if it did not care about Russian occupied region?
KGB colleague of the president since 42 years ago. Work together under roof of Sobchak in Saint-Petersburg Mayor Office, as “state capture” part, between Malyshev gang and Tambov gang. Some of those latter now, close to the top of the Kremlin.
You mean incompetence?
Sometimes incompetence like they reveal the operation in Ryazan in 1999. But who cares? If everyone who investigates “die from radition poisoning” (Shchekochikhin) or shot in head (Yushenkov). Only a suicidal person would be interested in the topic. And you control media so to never talk about it. After years of not allowing a topic in media, it seems most of the people just forget and their consciousness moves to the next shiny thing.
Hopefully not Kiev and Lvov.
Agree. I myself would probably rejoin my R1b brothers in Udmurtia, where there is supposedly the most red hair.
Maybe he doesn’t want to fall in this trap, that Saakashvili falls to in August 2008.
The Trumpist president in 2024 can pass an Executive Order negating all laws enacted after District of Columbia Organic Act of 1871. Trumpists that claimed Trump to be inaugurated last year imply that. 100% of 20th & 21st century institutions will not fit into pre-1871 laws.
Will be funnier if he writes all of Sovereign Citizens’ legal concepts into a new amendment and forces all the states & the Congress to ratify it. Those who dissent become secessionists for 1871-2024 US and/or traitors.
Canada can do this too after Trudeau.
(also, Putin is also a loser for not acting as a Regent for the Tsar)
I don’t post here anymore but this idea is too interesting not to
mention, even purely hypothetically: There is a simple way for
Ukraine to join the EU and even NATO. Consider that the 1.5 million
Ukrainians who work and study in Poland are effectively already in
the EU and in NATO. Add several million more, and a big chunk
of Ukraine will find itself in NATO.
Apparently, there are some Austrian experts who are convinced that
Putin indeed wants to occupy Ukraine but only the eastern half, through
the Dnepr river. About 10 years ago I read (but I don’t know if this was
apocryphal or not) that Putin floated the idea of going back to the
arrangement of several hundred years ago, and basically dividing Ukraine
between Russia and Poland roughly along the Dnepr. 6-7 years ago
there was a group of journalists, etc from western Ukraine who wrote
a letter to the Polish Sejm asking them to consider annexing the
western tip of Ukraine to Poland (specifically through Ternopil, roughly
returning to the pre-1939 borders). I mentioned this to AP but he hadn’t
heard of it, and the idea apparently went nowhere in Sejm. I don’t know
how true this is but I heard that many people in Lvov are absolutely
convinced that Lvov will return to Poland. Considering the hostility
of the Galicians to Poland I doubt this could ever happen. I don’t think
Poland is interested anyway. Ukrainian oligarchs would come as part
of the package. Who’d want that?
False flag BS debunked below, giving further evidence that Clarissa Ward and Richard Engel are shysters:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-tensions-ukraine-boil-over-200725
How do you “bomb” entering columns without an air force? Do you not understand how outmatched the Ukrainians are without external aid? Do you think they’re suicidal, or that they should be?
Lol I doubt you want to live in Udmurtia. I guess even Perm.
–
As for Birobidzhan being apparently “Jewish”, it seems to me, the idea of the revival of a region’s national culture becomes a contradiction for boring, economic reasons.
Because on one hand, the region is being economically asset-stripped like most of the Far East, so there lack of opportunities for the young people is a rule, more than exception.
I don’t know personally this region, but I assume much of their young people try to emigrate to Khabarovsk, Vladivostok, if not even Moscow.
On the other hand, if you can find Jewish descent to the third generation, you can try to apply for repatriation rights in Israel. For Americans, this can seem funny. But in Russia, it is a golden ticket (really, it’s pretty lucky).
–
Also they focus the idea of reviving national culture with Yiddish (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIVdZgOQeVQ.). Nowadays Yiddish is a dead language. Whereas learning Hebrew would actually be useful even that far away.
He’s a manager, not a field agent. Likely his job composes of going through data and being suspicious of possibilities while giving nondirect answers to officials rather than having to infiltrate and live on his wits.
Being put on the spot and having to speak directly may be a relatively novel experience.
The connection is indirect. The purpose behind rhetoric supportive of civilizational states like Russia, China and Hindu India is to discredit the globohomo value system. The average reflexive libtard and/or normie – by no means a deep thinker – tends to imagine that America’s position as military and economic top dog is assured for all time. He assumes the great problems of human existence have been solved and that all that remains are to put the finishing touches on the last few areas of discrimination. He therefore finds it very easy to go along with far left flapdoodle about trannies, female “wage gap”, “racial justice” and so on. In the libtard mind, it’s both the right thing to do and there’s essentially no cost to it – remember, the position of westerners as top dogs and moral pace-setters is assured.
Then, along come rising powers, enjoying tremendous (domestic) public support, social stability, and economic growth – and they’re doing it all while absolutely shitting on the globohomo value system. The hope is that this will make libtards and normies reconsider their priorities. That it will inure them against SJW tripe. It’s not from any great love for these regimes that I take this position or that I consider them “on my side”; it’s for the reason mentioned alone. (Although I do hold out hope that India and China might some day form part of the anti-black coalition I consider the Number One long-term global priority; nothing could be more important than keeping out the Africanus if the quality of non-black life is to be preserved.)
To bring this back to the topic of AK’s recent return, I have nothing against Ukraine. It would delight me to see them do well for themselves. But in terms of the specific dispute over the Donbass, I can only say to Russia: do it, stomp them. I don’t see that I have any other choice.
More specifics: September 1, 2009 Putin was indeed in Sopot, Poland, and
was involved in bilateral talks with Donald Tusk, then Prime Minister of Poland.
There is a photo showing the two of them on the famous Sopot Pier.
Putin said something to the effect that Lvov is a Polish city, and Poland and
Russia should get together and do something about that.
(Source: If you can read Polish, this was reported in today’s Onet.pl, specifically
in the conversation with Radosław Sikorski who is currently a member of the
European Parliament)
Trump did act against H1-B visas, in 2017 even.
E.g.,
https://money.cnn.com/2017/01/31/technology/india-h1b-visa-trump-tech-companies/
https://www.investopedia.com/news/impact-trumps-h1b-visa-crackdown-5-charts/
But it was apparently slow walked and then finally killed by Judge Jeffrey “Anti-” White in 2020.
A basic pattern of Deep State / Rotten Judiciary action, as I’m sure you recall.
It might be this Jeffrey White, seems to fit but the ruling above is not mentioned: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_White
Thats because Poland was always treated with kid gloves. They had to placate them somehow after all..like for example feeding them in 1947 at the expense of say..ours.. what else can USSR offer especially after the war?
I doubt Russian are going to do be using kid gloves here they will resort to “бей своих чтобы чужие боялись”. And if the Russins will refuse to do the job, they will use Chechens or something and I doubt Chechens really care about anyone else except other Chechens anyway.
Its going to be more of their multicultural hell. The same nightmares as America where you’re constantly walking on eggshells. Screw their 200 ethnnic races,screw their Turkics and Finno Ugrics but they want to bring it here and flood us with hundreds of thousands of their undesirables.
And once again, its unfortunately going take OUN levels of radicalism to gain freedom.
FFS and its all because of people like you(not you in particular im using a collective term that is)
But ur strategy is: nah lets not talk about OUN so we dont offend the Poles(look around you, nobody, nobody who is our neighbor maybe except Belarus is into that ethnic sadomasochism, every finno Ugric, Balt or Turkic is an ethnic nationalist ).
A Finno Ugric nationalist could possibly beat you up if you referred to him as a “R1b brother”.
just sayin
You really think the American bureaucracy was staffed by MAGAs?
Trump was a bolt from the blue. Even if he was serious about his campaign promises (I strongly suspect not), there simply weren’t enough hands on deck to turn the ship around.
“But he had four years!!!” Who of us really knows how long it “should” take?
And what’s the rush anyway? It didn’t happen in one term, why should that be cause for surrender?
You try, try and try again.
Any way you cut it, whether Trump himself was serious or not, an important corner was turned with his presidency.
Anybody on board with even some small part of the MAGA program must regard naysaying defeatists as the enemy. By this standard, commie sympathizer Beckow amply qualifies.
Nobody expected them to be effective and being able stop Russian columns but just few attacks here and there to put an exclamation mark at the end of the sentence: This is our country! They did not do it. Russians came and took it and from now on forever Russians will be saying: Even Ukrainians agreed with us that the land belonged to Russia because they did not try to defend it. There was no single Ukrainian who discharged rifle in the direction of our troops.
The invasion (or reclamation) is under way, but we don’t know what the end will look like.
One firm piece of information that will be proven is whether the national IQ of Ukraine is higher than that of Georgia.
Look at this retard, a “PhD student @warstudies. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST, and @AlfaFellowship. Focused on Russian defense policy.”
Who can’t be bothered to look up Soviet symbology and realize he’s looking at artillery observers….
http://army.armor.kiev.ua/hist/takznaki.shtml
So called legit analysis. Which Karlin quotes willy nilly and claims Rob Lee (the queer in question) “thinks logically” -Karlin
They helped me with an electric bike a few years ago. Was a decent build 1KW motor with a 48V 15A battery. Topped out in the 40-45KM/h range, and got around 20km +/- depending on speed, terrain, and temperature.
They soldered all the leads, and gave me good ideas on how to secure the battery rack to the frame.
In the future, I’ll do another build with a bottle battery in the triangle. Don’t need it above 35KM/h although, it’s always nice for hills or unexpected outcomes. A 750W motor with a 48V 12A battery might be ideal with a space battery in the pack.
Electric bikes are quiet, ultraportable, and just overall fun since you can physically pick them up. There’s also not the reverse spin BS to steering you have with motor cycles, and leaning into a turn is fun.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Russia, India, and China all have a greater share of female business leaders than the West.
They’re just an older version of GloboHomo values, and catching up fast.
You won’t find honor killing, harems or wife abduction in these lands.
They are all unbased, and many have far less ‘personal’ freedom, self defence laws or weapons ownership than the West (America in particular).
The main thing they are imbued with is a female BMI norm below the point of morbid obesity. Although, this is also fast changing.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Do you think it possible for a negotiated settlement, or does either Ukraine or Russia have to be crushed?
Do you want to see bloodshed or what? So far Russia has simply annexed territory that has been def-facto outside of Ukrainian state control for nearly a decade now.
Russia is claiming all of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts though, so the moment of truth will come soon. If the Ukrainians don’t stand and fight for them, then they’ll be unlikely to fight for the rest also. In this sense, I suppose utu is right. Hopefully, they will stand down, and bloodshed will be avoided.
I don’t mean an occupation Odessa massacre. It seems like a hunt and liquidation of the perpetrators of the Odessa Massacre.
Ukraine must show some resolve if it wants support of the West because otherwise Kremlin narrative “Russia has simply annexed territory that has been def-facto outside of Ukrainian state control” will be accepted and Russian revisionism and revanchism will be normalized.
Our Lord Dowin threatens Russians with doomsday sanctions.
My Discord isn’t a rightwing (or leftwing) one. It’s for discussing various interesting things aimed primarily at readers of my blog.
If you’re still mostly pandering to the needs of your old fans here, that you’ve spent 8 years developing, why the need to leave this blog space and create, as I understand it, two new ones to take its place? This one is still the most desirable as far as functionality. If you haven’t gotten a decent raise in a while, have you even asked for one? It all comes down to money, usually, eh?…
Chechens were quite effective against Georgia in 2008. Then again, the Chechens have some beef with Georgia.
An overly tribalistic system tends to cause civilizational instability stemming from infighting related to honor/revenge killings etc. There is a happy cultural medium where a limited culturally attuned state takes some of this over.
However, I would rather live in world that takes the concept of honor seriously than not. To wit, I would honestly prefer to live in a world where Sikhs rule the earth rather than globalist materialists.
I find it so disconcerting how in the West now there almost universally no concept of honor, like it is a complete joke term. It’s such an aberration historically.
This may be true, but the type of ideology that goes with this type of movement needs to evolve too. The world is much different today that it was in the 1930’s. Poland is one of the few countries that has provided Ukraine with modern weaponry and instruction during this tense buildup of russian revanchism. Do you really think it wise to revert back to nasty Polish memes that may have been applicable in the past to today? If you’re so keen on the fascist model for Ukrainians, why haven’t you remained in Ukraine and joined up with the right sector folks? They’re the ones that like to march around garbed in Nazi swastikas instead of Ukrainian tryzubs.
The Russian troops are entering into Donbas from points that are far from the Ukrainian artillery positions. But, more importantly, they have not yet changed anything nor tried to take any additional ground. I guess that there is still some faint hope that this would not escalate into full combat and shelling the incoming troops would end that completely.
Ukraine is using the extra time to call up the first group of veteran reserves (another 40,000 troops, many of whom have experienced war in Donbas already) as part of the mobilization of the 250,000 total reserves-veterans. The Ukrainian government has also started providing the territorial guards in the cities with real guns rather than the wooden duplicates that they had been using in training (though many have already purchased their own weapons). State of emergency has been declared.
Some slim chance because technically nothing has yet changed. I think that if Russia was 100% committed to full invasion it would have moved with less warning, but the unacceptable nature of the conditions (not only no NATO but even full demilitarisation, what USSR demanded of Baltics prior to absorbing them) suggest high likelihood of no peaceful resolution.
Bloomberg (Bloomberg!) is reporting that US/NATO basically can’t do squat about this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/biden-s-first-salvo-of-russia-sanctions-hits-with-thud-not-roar
I think, it’s time to stop here. In the current situation a deal according the following lines might be signed:
– Ukraine in the current effective borders has right to enforce the monoculture line you advocate. Russia must respect these borders. Ever.
– No Ukraine in NATO and no NATO in Ukraine. Ever.
– Ukraine has rights to move to the UE. Russia should accept and help.
– NS2 should be open with conditions that a % of the profits obtained by selling gas to Europe via NS2 must go to Ukraine. In this way Russia “buys” Crimea and the Donbass (for example 2000 million Euros per year during 100 years).
– NATO should recognize Crimea and the current borders Donbass as a part of Russia.
I doubt this idea is feasible and “digestible” for both sides, but something like that should be tried.
Why don’t focus on being a ruler rather than being ruled?
Also, the overly tribal stuff comes from cousin marriage. Which is banned in Sikhi,
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
Obviously, if I looked like Skippie Gates. (black) But anyway, while they were balling their fists, I would de-escalate by breaking out a scatterplot of ancient DNA and pointing to the relevant dots.
Actually, I am just joking, I am sure they are a friendly people, and we would bond over our shared colonial troubles.
All this situation might be litle bit(?) less rational than it should be, because there are elements of somewhat intrapersonal informal rivalries at the highest level too.
Biden was the political symbol of USA power after Maidan win in 2014, Zelensky’s main sponsor Kolomoisky had also important role then, now Zelensky legally persecuted pro-RF oligarch Medvedchuk, who has even some personal relation to Putin and whom even president Poroshenko didn’t touch.
Kolomoisky also was personally verbally insulting Putin in 2014.
So in Putin’s view it might be also seen as a final accord of a mighty powermen struggle and a very saticfactionary personal revenge to Biden&Kolomoisky for the humiliating loss in 2014.
This would certainly be a lot preferable to war but this is very far from Russia’s position.
In the same vein, the most practical way for Ukrainians to join EU is Russia annexing Ukraine wholesale and Galician refugees ending up in the EU en masse. Putin might help along.
Perhaps, it has affected the patterns of speech in Hebrew? I don’t know. But I heard there was a debate in Israel originally about which language to use. It’s curious but you still hear a lot about Yiddish in America. (I mean not people speaking it, but, for example, it is mentioned in old TV shows or in newspapers talking about how it was a great language for insults. Probably as a result of Jewish ethnocentrism.)
Have you ever watched Bald and Bankrupt on youtube? He is a traveler but his specialty seems to visiting some of these down on their luck places in the former USSR.
He’s a funny character. I would be worried about being robbed in a lot of these places, but he goes into Chechnya without fear. When he gets a virus, he gets a ticket to some small Soviet town that he doesn’t even know where it is, and engages the locals in raspy Russian (from the sore throat), seeking people who speak the local, native language. He’s probably a super-spreader.
I like to see some of the old, Soviet architecture in some of these towns. The murals. Even the trash bins. I wish the old cars and buses were still running.
_____
I suppose I would have to scout Udurmtia first, to make sure it isn’t full of Babushkas.
Gurkhas also decapitate animals for kosher purposes and carry a special knife. Perhaps, Sikhs stole their customs from them?
If White South Africa had still existed Russia would have been immediately interested in importing their diamonds and setting up its domestic diamond-cutting industry with Israeli expertise. (Or use all the diamond substitutes Soviets developed for industrial uses).
The rest are awesome for cultural bifurcation and de-consumerization Russia needs.
How would you know of Discord functionality unless you try it, though? It can do things that a forum can’t do.
As long as you don’t run into the limitations (or, you know, get limited) I’d say it’s a nice app.
American Hasids in places like New York speak Yiddish.
Have you considered the mental state of most Ukie soldiers? They are sitting exposed on the border and infinitely stronger enemy has moved towards them. If Russia unleashes their weapons they can annihilate 50% or more of the Ukrainian troops in 24 hours. Any Ukie shooting would destroy a few buildings, if lucky a few dozen soldiers-civilians.
The officers have been warned that they will be held accountable afterwards for ‘war crimes’ – the guys on both sides know each other and talk. The Western minders are gone, and even the die-hard Galicians are probably heading home to pack, just in case.
Do you want them to die to make a small point helping the Western propaganda? Would any rational person? This was a losing situation for Kiev from day one: an idiotic overreach that depended on Russia’s inactivity. They put the success of the strategy in enemy’s hands – a basic error. Once Russia called their bluff, the trap was inevitable.
The West knows this, that’s why the awkward screaming and simultaneous running away. What exactly can they do? No shopping in Milano for some oligarch’s niece? No gas to EU? 800 Canadians in Latvia? How exactly does that matter when history is being made? They should had taken the Minsk deal while they could – it was a fantastic deal in the long run. But of course because they are morons living in their fantasy world, they didn’t. Now for the consequences for all of us.
I remember that time that he accused my pureblood Kerry grandfather of being Jewish for thinking rabbits are disgusting animals.
And also when he denied Mongolians drink carrot juice with sheep eyeballs in them, and said it must have been invented for tourists.
He was a funny character, and I wish he would return.
My comment shouldn’t be interpreted that I intend to be ruled by either SJW or Sikhs. It was just a theoretical value judgement on competing world views using the two as counterpoints.
Trust me, in real life I prioritize independence and family/community cohesion, at least as much as is possible for me to influence in such an atomized society. I’m well far enough from the centers of American Imperial power that, similar to the Amish, I can largely do things my way. The area is rural enough that plenty of people are similarly minded to form some common purpose. In a way, my area reminds me of this forum or AE’s defunct forum in that it’s a pretty stimulating place on the fringes.
Also, please explain your frequent exhortation to “worship weapons”, trolling aside. Certain people around my area could be said to worship weapons but they do so in an essentially obnoxious and dishonorable way. I would say that they more accurately fetishize guns than worship weapons.
As far as firearms go, I regard them as a tool, nothing more, though I do have something of an affinity for old military rifles. Guns are not what you are talking about though primarily, you mean edged weapons specifically, correct?
In my business as a timber framer I use quite a number of mostly antique framing chisels day to day. These become through muscle memory and use, more of an extension of oneself when razor sharp and employed with skill and speed. They are my day to day “weapons” and I do regard them with a certain reverence. They are far beyond just mechanistic tools, since they form a direct and unmediated bridge between me and the work. Power tools, by comparison, offer layers of separation. They are necessary but I don’t form a relationship with them as I do with hand tools.
Perhaps it is similar with your sentiment?
Beckow in 2015 – Ukraine’s economy will not grow for many years.
So far, no mass desertions. Polls show increasing resolve in center, west and south but decreasing in east. 10,000 Ukrainians have bought new guns in February alone. To flee with?
Some people are sending their kids to cousins in Lviv or to the village while they get armed.
Exactly. There are limits to what the President can do, primarily limited by law.
This also impacted Not-The-President Biden: (1)
Rational individuals grasp that changing policy requires winning in all three branches of government (Legislative, Executive, and Judicial). During Trump’s first term, MAGA did not control the Legislature or the Judiciary. Trump was highly successful obtaining the gains that were actually available versus the entrenched non-MAGA opposition.
Low-IQ yahoos are upset because the impossible was not achieved.
The way forward is continuously working on the House, Senate, and Judiciary over multiple election cycles. It will take time to place reliable MAGA majorities in these bodies.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/supreme-court-orders-remain-in-mexico-policy-reinstated
Agree. For this reason, a potential invasion and occupation of places like Kiev or Galicia is really unlikely. However, in his speech Putin specifically mentioned how close Kharkiv is to Moscow. If large scale hostilities commence (in taking the rest of Donbas, for example) then attacking this city with the large amount of military poised very near to it becomes very likely.
In the shadow of the current crisis, there’s a country that has been notching up major wins in recent days and weeks. Iran. The recent suspension of NS2 means they’re the only country in close vicinity with both surge capacity & baseline political acceptability to supply Europe with more gas. Europe has never been as hostile to Iran as the US has been. Iran is close to Turkey and would only need a few years to build a pipeline, after which they can use existing infra. They also have plenty of ships to be used in the interim. Of course, such a development would enrage the Israelis, but should Europe really endanger its energy security to please implacable curmudgeons holed up in Jerusalem?
Additionally, even before these fortuitous events, the nuclear negotiations continued to go their way. The departure of hardliners like Richard Nephew was a major milestone. He was a key official in previous sanctions implementation rounds against Iran. He publicly left the negotiation team after admitting to having been isolated.
I personally don’t understand the fetish that the Iranians have with getting a deal since the old one was ripped up by America. What’s the guarantee there won’t be a future DeSantis/Trump admin doing the same thing again? Whining impotently about life being unfair isn’t going to garner much sympathy from me. My view of Iran has been lowered in recent years as they seem obsessed with being in the West’s good graces at any price, despite all the tall tales spun by the likes of Pepe Escobar.
The House was guaranteed to deliver a “Russia, Russia, Russia” impeachment. Trump needed to keep non-MAGA Republican Senators on board to avoid conviction. Those GOP(e) were aligned with big business that wanted the visas to flow.
If Trump had attempted the illegal slow walk that you suggest, he would have been convicted in the Senate and thrown out of office.
___
You, Mikel, and Iffen need to create the “Committee to Overthrow the Constitution”. The only way for a single leader to achieve what you demand is by becoming an Emperor not President. Until you successfully get rid of the separation of powers, please stop the defeatist, anti-factual, emotionalism.
PEACE 😇
There’s both the ritual element such as weapons on altar, praying to or with weapons, using weapons to consecrate.
Training with weapons, maintaining weapons, gifting weapons.
Weapons are our spiritual guides.
@songbird they’re part of the same family.. Sikhs are a codification of Vedic kingship and not a separate religion. Neither are Gurkhas, just different warring denominations।।
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
You know that Ukraine’s economy has been dead in the water, stop denying the obvious. But that really doesn’t matter at this point, we are beyond counting shillings.
To desert is very hard, until the actual fighting starts. Then you have chaos. How many of the tens of thousands would run away or foist a white flag (or even the Russian flag) when faced with annihilation? How many officers would choose to save themselves? If Russia declares a no-flight zone over Ukraine (they could), block access to the Black See (they could), that would leave only land borders…how many officers sitting on the front would make it? These people aren’t stupid. You want them to die to make a point, but enough of them may disagree.
You are not thinking clearly: ‘increasing resolve‘ far away from the front means nothing – it shows that the pressures to conform and the risk of non-conforming are very high.
Let’s not test this – my response was to ‘utu’s’ desire for Ukies to shoot at something. They don’t have to – there is still a peaceful way out: a neutral Ukraine, equality for all nations living there, a quasi-Minsk deal (worse than before, but still possible). And above all, NATO’s advisors and missiles stay far away. Why would we in the Central-Eastern Europe want to die for Western idiotic dreams of conquest of Russia? For their uber-liberal nonsense with rainbow flags and imported African brain surgeons? Let’s just go back to living.
Ukrainians lining up to join their military:
Sikhi should also ban sex selective abortion lest the Khalsa wither away!
Hard to wrap my head around, as I was taught that Sikhs are monotheists. (though I guess it is sort of fuzzy, with the Gurus.) Whereas, Gurkhas seem clearly not to be, and worship what I think Kent Nationalist once called “demons.”
Why would it be any different next time? And don’t just say ‘MAGA wins both Senate and House’ – as we have seen, there are always enough people who will go liberal when the chips are down. Same as always.
Consider that this may be an unsolvable problem given the system constraints: that the parameters of the system itself preclude solving these issues. The business interests, the ‘lobbying’ nature of the American democracy (read: built-in corruption), the incentives for all involved.
That is not good, and having a hope that next time it would be different is fine. But look at the retard Justin-baby: when confronted with a possible loss, the liberal rulers will cross any borders, any lines. That pretty much leaves a slow system collapse due to issues like migration growing to the point that they can’t be sustained. Or the liberals wake up one day and say ‘oh, sh..t, we were wrong, let’s change the course’. But a MAGA-like reform of the system is very unlikely. Look it up, historically there are very few examples of a successful system reform.
China and Russia also have high abortion rates with Russia being a stratospheric 53.4 per 1000 women and China being 24 per 1000. India is quite low at 3.1 per 1000 which is quite favorable. For comparison the US stands 20.8 per 1000 women.
Abortion rates like that of Russia in particular don’t signal a rejection of basic materialist GloboHomo values. I can’t take discussion of Russia as “Savior of the West” seriously in light of that, much less China.
First, I don’t really trust people with C19 masks and briefcases. That is not the right demographic to fight to death. Any man afraid of corona at this point is not about to martyr himself.
Second, look up Czecho-slovakia’s mobilization ahead of Munich in 1938: cheering crowds, trains decorated with flowers, screaming girls. Then the rain washed away the slogans on the trains and the soldiers went silent. And then Germany, Poland and Hungary attacked and Chamberlain unfolded his umbrella – that time the cheering crowds were in London and Paris. Why would it be different now?
Wow. It seems that Mark Galeotti is really really buthurt.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/22/the-personal-politics-of-putins-security-council-meeting-a76522
How much signaling will the Indian space program have about scheduled castes and women?
Do Slovaks generally think that they got semi-idependent state under Hitler was due their non fighting with Germany? This is not sarcastic question, I’m really curious, cause do not know about that.
We aren’t ahead of Munich 1938 now, but on the cusp of likely invasion. No mass desertions, people reporting for the army. Ukrainian forces are buying time by not doing what Saakashvili did:
I’m quite sure that the Russian war planning counts on desertions as a variable. This variable will not be as high as the 80% seen in Crimea but will be higher than 0%. Indeed, I think that bribes will be a weapon of choice. If desertions are around 50% the ugly phase can be “relatively bloodless” but if the variable is around 10% the likelihood of a bloodbath increases significantly. I hope the hot phase to never start.
As a matter objective fact, the next MAGA President will have:
— MAGA House for Appropriations
— More MAGA friendly, but not filibuster proof, Senate
So you are 100% emotion, 0% objective facts. Facts about Congress are “to you” irrelevant. Got it.
Have you so considered joining the fact free SJW DNC. Your emotional belief that “The Rule of Feelings” is more powerful than the “Rule of Law” makes you a natural Globalist acolyte. You believe that surrendering to the Elites is the only option.
Thank you for admitting that there are examples of successful reform. The SJW/DNC authoritarian over reach, economic collapse, open fiction destroying all credibility of the Fake Stream Media, and total disregard for U.S. Citizens makes MAGA a prime candidate for successful reform.
The new MAGA Republicans are quite different than the GOP(e). The change is still in progress, but the early signs are that MAGA party is much more willing to fight. A key policy cornerstone is U.S. Reindustrialization, and they mean it.
The “business interests and corporate lobbyists” loathe the idea of American Jobs for American Citizens. Fear of MAGA Reindustrialization has flipped the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. They are now stalwart supporters of Ilhan Omar’s DNC: (1)
The “lobbyist” tactic worked when they could fund and control both sides. While no party is lobbyist free, the most perfidious job exporters and foreign agents cannot change MAGA positions no matter how much they lobby.
PEACE 😇
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(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2020/08/28/the-bloom-is-off-the-ruse-tom-donohue-and-u-s-chamber-of-commerce-announce-support-for-far-left-democrats-in-2020/
What is the caste composition of scientists and astronauts in their space program?
Without modern abortion services parents will still resort to infanticide (and these remains a significant part of abortions in India). It takes a genetic-cultural natalist response to maximize fecundity.
We don’t worship the Gurus, and Idk look up Panentheism. Sikh blue uniform comes from Ma Kali
Watch the video, say based and move on.
Quit being a nerd.
I’m a Jatt.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
>Norwegian
Huge news for the upcoming election in France: (1)
I have not seen an official number for Zemmour. The consensus view is that Zemmour is much closer to 500 than Le Pen.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://rmx.news/article/french-democracy-a-joke-marine-le-pen-forced-to-suspend-her-presidential-election-campaign-due-to-insufficient-signatures/
Thank you, I really appreciate you taking the time to express that.
For some reason, repairing motorcycles has a long pedigree as a spiritual activity, there are several books on this.
I’m not surprised repairing bikes seem to attract a similar quality of people.
Something about cheap, low impact, modes of transport seem to bring out the best in people.
Actually, I agree with you that walking is best, and is in fact the most spiritual activity one can do 🙂
Especially – wandering, that yes, gets away from straight lines and clear paths. When I hike, I’m increasingly “rambling”, or just striking out cross country in open land with a compass in an unstructured way.
To be confined to roads and paths – why? One connects to nature better when one simply jumps in and becomes a part of it.
Btw, yu made me sound here like a Marxist philosopher 🙂
Poke fun at me by all means, I don’t mind it, but recognize at least that Marxism isn’t the angle I’m writing from (although I agree with much of his critique).
Vishnugupta would probably know, but I suspect that the scientists are nearly all Brahmins. Heard rumors about astronauts being selected, but can’t find any names.
In the US, I am struck by how heavy the ideology is at the top, but also at the bottom (aerospace companies). One could choose between seeing it as top-down ideology, or it being mechanistic and bottom up.
Kennedy wanted a black lunar astronaut as a signal, but he was vetoed, due to lack of qualified candidates. At that time, the US did not have the mechanistic power inputs necessary to achieve blacks on the moon, and the idea could be vetoed by sensible men.
Johnson started laying the groundwork, but Kennedy probably would have, if he had survived. And not to make it about one man, congress, the courts, universities, Hollywood, and news media, were heavily involved.
“Putin mentioned Kharkiv in his speech.”
It would indeed surprise me if Putin went after Kharkov. Back when TSHTF in 2014, only Luhansk and Donetsk were in play because a majority voted that they didn’t want to be part of Ukraine anymore. A similar vote was held in Kharkov and they voted to remain in Ukraine.
I draw a line in degree between abortions/ infanticide which is done out of the desperation of crushing poverty and those who are just rejecting responsibility and chasing pleasure.
If an animal kills it’s own young it invokes automatic disgust from humans yet we kill our young as a species as a fundamental human right. I know abortion is a contentious issue, but it’s one that I’ve always felt unequivocal about. It’s too much of a rejection of the woman’s nurturing and the man’s protecting role.
What to do about about burgeoning population then becomes the next question. I’ve often thought that their is actually a strong “anti-vaxx” argument that can be made holding that the modern decrease in mortality is actually ultimately a bad outcome. I think the deferred suffering will come paid in the end, and it has opened too many other Pandora’s boxes.
In short, it would be preferable to live in a world with higher infant mortality but where children are a precious asset, then a world with low infant mortality that is offset by their intentional destruction and devaluation.
I am beginning to think I should confine myself to posting relevant Chesterton quotes.
Who will run against Macron then?
I’m reading now a beautifully produced book by Tuttle Press, a small publisher that makes attractively bound books on Asian themes and topics.
It’s about a Japanese poet I’d never heard of before – Santoku Taneda, from the early 20th century.
Apparently, at a certain point he just said fuck it all, became a Zen monk and started walking the mountains and back roads of Japan, and drinking tons and tons of sake – truly a man after my own hearts 🙂
Oh, and writing poetry that made him one of the most beloved poets of Japan. I love how Japan has this fondness for these vagabond types who drink a lot, and who existed even in recent times.
One collection of his poetry is called “For All My Walking”.
Apparently, sauntering comes from the French saint terre, to go on a pilgrimage to a holy site – long walks and rambles seem to go hand in hand with spirituality.
And there is the great French idea of the Flaneur – another casualty of industrial civilization thinking you only walk with a purpose.
Aimless rambling in an interesting city or countryside may one of the best things in life.
Walkers in NYC are the worst! They always walk in a hurry and are always trying to actually get somewhere – horrid!
Bangkok used to be great for walking. The sidewalks are so cluttered with carts and vendors and people and local life taking place, with sudden impromptu markets popping up every few streets, that you simply couldn’t walk fast if you wanted to, and anyone who actually has to get somewhere would never think of walking. It’s also way too hot to walk fast.
Last I heard the city authorities want to clean this riotous life of color up and make the streets boring and organized and efficient – that will never happen, of course, but it’s a sign of the times.
Somehow, I’m optimistic and joyous today 🙂 At times like these, all the dreary things about modern culture, the mentality itself, seems so brittle and so much on the way out already. I’m near Big Sur in California.
One of the cool things about Christianity is the idea that the “good side” has already won – that the world has already been overcome. That’s the good news.
I think this optimistic idea is deep down true.
Yep, the truths about these things have long been known but the small minded petty men of power never understand them.
Karlin thinks that Russia conquering a poor country like Ukraine is somehow “winning”, and of course that winning is the most important thing in life – it’s so palpably small minded, so lacking in breadth of vision and wideness if view in this great and mysterious universe, that one can only smile 🙂
It’s the same with transhumanism – control everything so you can survive. These people can never raise their eyes for a moment and see anything larger than their petty selves 🙂
Please continue posting as much Chesterton as you possibly can – the man is certainly an antidote to our times, not just in words but in expansive and carefree attitude!
If both Le Pen and Zemmour are excluded, Valérie Pécresse is the obvious choice.
Her platform seems sound. However, I know little about her. She has gotten little coverage outside of France compared to the internationally known migration realists.
PEACE 😇
And oil price is scratching one hundred dollars. May hysteria is agitated with that target in mind.
The SJW/DNC is attempting to blame months of inflation and high oil prices on recent events (1). They are failing miserably. The fact that they are trying to sell this bit of crazy shows the arrogance of Ilhan Omar and the Democrat party.
PEACE 😇
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(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/22/western-leaders-blame-russia-ukraine-conflict-for-energy-prices-deflecting-from-g7-build-back-better-and-climate-change-agenda/
Survival is highly overrated. I look forward to exiting this world at some point so the next generations can have their shot. Not to say I’m in a hurry to leave, but when it’s time to go I don’t mind making a gracious exit.
A static world of living forever as the transhumanists imagine sounds really awful. It would be a profoundly dead society. I find it hard to imagine that they take themselves seriously, yet apparently they do and would love to make their dreams everyone else’s nightmare.
Do you ever wonder the exact gerontology details when a guy like George Soros or David Rockefeller gets his 10th vital organ transplant? Is he bedridden for a month then he gets to walk around semi-normal for two months until he needs to have another one? Does he have medical techs poke him with needles every single morning from now until his near corpse finally gives it up?
We may already be living inside the zombie apocalypse. : (
Slovakia was loyal to Czecho-Slovakia until after Munich, there were some noisy nationalists, but our ancestors didn’t betray Prague until March 1939 – 6 months after the UK-France (and Poland, Hungary) betrayal in Munich.
In March 1939 Hitler told Slovak leaders: either declare independence under German protection or become occupied by Hungary (the Magyars were itching to do it). So they declared an independent state that was completely under Germany. Lesser evil is still kind of an evil – and the leaders who did it were punished after WWII. Fighting Germany after the Munich betrayal was not really an option – we are not insane. Czechs also didn’t fight.
In summer 1944 there was an uprising led by the army. It was suppressed after 2 months by invading Germans, pushed into the mountains and then the usual partisan stuff. Soon after that Russians liberated Slovakia at a cost of about 100k lives. We still appreciate it.
How do you define desertion? If there is a massive attack by superior weapons a large percentage of Ukie army will surrender. Would you count them as deserters. Also, the units that will not initiate a fight, that will hold back (very common) is that a ‘desertion’?
We don’t know and don’t want to test it. Based on the situation, my guess is that less than 50% of the Ukie soldiers facing Russia would aggressively fight. Others may shoot, but keep their heads down, or withdraw at first opportunity.
If Russia chooses to go medieval with massive remote bombing and destruction (they could), it won’t matter much because whether dead or a deserter, they would be out of a fight. Kiev needs to wake up – and also people like AP – that this is not a joke, that losing is not fun. People die, for what? So a few morons can Kiev can insist on joining NATO? Because, that’s what the fight is about. With a neutral Ukraine, they could have Donbas, trade, EU, everything.
If Trump returns to power in 2025, I don’t see why there is much hope in a return to American greatness. Demographics is destiny and America is headed for long-term slow economic growth and a permanent end to empire-supporting patriotism.
Non-Hispanic whites were 58% of the US population according to the 2020 Census. It will continue to decline to 40-45% by 2050. Real growth per capita will decline because there aren’t enough white taxpayers contributing to the economy.
The percentage of the US population that is (1) white, (2) Christian, and (3) married has fallen a lot. “from a high of 62 percent in 1974 to 28 percent in 2015.” https://www.prri.org/spotlight/white-married-christians-decline-in-u-s/ Projecting further based on the rate of decline over the last 50 years, the percentage will fall to 10-15% in 2050. How many people in America would be left to support the empire? Which group will contribute the bulk of military officers? The enlisted in combat units?
I started watching Bald a couple of years ago via his Belarus videos, it was interesting to see some of the places I knew in Minsk in travel vlogs. I followed his career for a while after, about up to the time of the Chechen videos.
I heard he has been robbed a few times already; he also made that memorable Corona video about when he caught the disease in Serbia and ended up in intensive care in one of their top hospitals for 10 days, unfortunately it didn’t stay up for that long.
There was apparently some drama when he went to Chechnya to make videos. He made one or two vaguely suggestive comments about Chechen women when filming on a train and later had to be taken into protective custody by the Chechen police because some Chechen guys were seeking to meet up with him to vindicate the honour of their women. The police seem to have made him apologise on video, do a dance, then they expelled him and told him never to try to re-enter. The video with the dance was around for a while.
Another interesting thing about Bald is that before becoming a travel vlogger he had a long online career as a kind of PUA/sex tourist specialising in the FSU, and he would write long posts on PUA and sex tourist forums about his experiences and the techniques he was using. There were some really long and convoluted methods, like hiring expensive cars and making fake business cards, websites then befriending guys and babushkas in order to eventually get at their younger female relatives (he called this the ‘Oskar Schindler’ technique). Lots of the places he goes in his videos he already knew quite well from this sex tourism era.
I was in Belarus a bit in 2010-12, similar period to when he was in his sex tourism phase, in smaller towns and regional cities, if you were English it wasn’t that hard to find dates if you wanted, the lengths he was going to suggested some real thirst. These kinds of dark revelations about him kept me following him for longer, wondering if he would ever mention it in a video. I don’t think he has as yet but he probably makes a good living with his Youtube, talking about this topic would put it at risk.
So, you are betting on a 50% desertion level. That’s should made the mess quite less bloody. I, honestly, don’t know, so I insist in the 10%-50% interval.
They were placed there, in 2014, just for asking “freely” NATO to step in Ukraine. That’s their duty. If thing go ugly, they will be “erased”.
Hopefully, the whole Russian “technical-military” deployment is for coercion purposes just to get the “No NATO in Ukraine and No Ukraine in NATO” objective. By the way
May be that’s the objective.
From Washington’s point of view this was always very simple: the first objective was to get the Crimea bases – Russia out, NATO in – over a decent time period. Russia stopped that in 2014 to extreme displeasure of Washington.
Then the second objectives: Ukraine in NATO and bloody the Russkies by having a war in Ukraine. Ukraine will not be in NATO, but the bloody part could still happen.
Based on the simple human psychology in 2022 (not in some mythical past), fewer than 50% of the assembled Ukrainian soldiers would fight given the odds. It could actually be fewer if the thunder and noise are overwhelming. People are not suicidal. Given that the Kiev elites would be visibly trying to escape to Lviv and further west, why the hell would the grunts line up to die? AP and his type are fantasizing, playing games, but they themselves would be among the first to run away.
The short delays between Russia’s moves give the Ukie soldiers time to think (and talk to the other side and their families). They are sitting there waiting to be killed, what do you think goes through their minds? Some drink, some watch videos, very few are getting all worked-up by Zelensky’s patriotic speeches. This one is for the military history books – what a complete f..k-up…
Wow, thanks! That’s really interesting. I hadn’t known any of that.
I haven’t watched too many of his videos, but I had noticed that he is given to ribald jokes, and one or two were already too crass for my tastes. And these caused me to fleetingly wonder about the psychology of the man, partly because he seems an extraordinary extrovert, and the places he goes to seem very out of the way, which almost suggests hidden motivations.
The very first time I saw him, I had wondered if he had been born in Russia, and so was drawn back. But I guess that is not the case.
Yes, I agree completely.
And yet, Karlin once said he expects normal people to clamor to get into the transhumanist community when they see how wonderful their sterile existence is 🙂
I wonder if they will be able to process the reality that large numbers of people will be leading joyous lives in the certainty of death while the transhumanists will be experiencing crippling and escalating anxiety as they try and hunt down ever more trivial threats 🙂
Covid was a precursor of the transhumanist reality.
You care about the next generation because intuitively, you feel connected to others, and ultimately all life – that also underlies your appreciation for nature.
They see themselves as isolated beings, radically split off from everything else, in a dead world of Self and Other – of course they are afraid to die.
As for making a gracious exit, no one talks about a good death – it’s always try and survive as long as possible.
I heard someone say – hospitals don’t records of good deaths, only how many extra hours patients survived 🙂
At some forgotten time, Yiddish was a very flourishing culture, almost civilization, with literature, musical theatre, poetry, many beautiful songs (e.g. “Papirosn”, etc.).
But it could not survive Zionist revival of Hebrew from the late 19th century, before the nightmares of Hitler and Stalin in the 20th century, who have thrown Yiddish to the trash heap of history, as now the Ukrainian language can be thrown to the trash heap of history by Putin.
Although while Ukrainian might soon be thrown on the trash heap by Putin, in a couple of generations, we will also wondering if even the Russian language can survive, at least in the Russian Far East, where much of region is being asset stripped, China buys the forests, and the young population is self-evacuating.
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You can see at 21:40 minute in the video the professional Yiddish teachers explain the pessimism about preserving Yiddish language, trying to preserve a dead German dialect in a rapidly dying region of Russia (with English subtitles).
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/10/739902587/yiddish-fiddler-on-the-roof-is-a-dream-come-true-for-lead-actor
https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2012/08/06/how-doctors-die/
https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/07/17/who-by-very-slow-decay/
Scott Alexander was part of the cryonics transhuman cult at LessWrong before he went to medical school. In the first slatestarcodex reader survey he had a cryonics question.
Long gone. His membership in the Death Cult only took a short exposure to reality to expunge.
I think they are probably delusional about how much these sanctions can damage the ruling class in Russia. If they have enough money, then their whole life of activity is designed to prepare for this kind of scenario that happens now.
While the money has to be washed outside Russia, they are the most diversified and skillful people in the world for washing money, and will just move money through any of every island in every ocean in the world.
If you block one place, then they will just go to another.
On the other hand, ordinary middle class people, who live from the value of their own labor in Europe, can be damaged, or their lives destroyed by sanctions.
The sanctions can damage the little middle class people who are working in Europe, just living the normal life, while for wealthy oligarchs it will be a few more hours of paperwork, to wash some money through Seychelles instead of Jersey.
“No shopping in Milan”. This really is personal attack against the national culture of the Russian Federation. At least he didn’t insult oil yet.
Diamonds are mostly extracted from soil, in Russia, Austrlia and Africa.
Then they are mostly cut and traded in Israel and Antwerp.
Finally, they are sold in expensive shops around the world, e.g. especially like Switzerland, London, etc.*
I had an ex- classmate, who worked as a mining engineer for the largest diamond company. His job is apparently “the worst job in the world”, like slave labor, where he sleeps in a barracks in terrible places in the Far East.
I also know someone in Europe, who has a parent, who is somekind of high executive in the same company. They life was not so uncomfortable, to say it mildly
There is modern life – masters and slaves.
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* The idea EU sanctions could prevent Russian officials buying the diamonds, seems unlikely intuitively. When the officials buy these things, they send assistants to e.g. Switzerland, to buy diamonds or expensive watches. So, these products are not sold in name of the officials.
Even if they try to ban all Russian citizens from buying diamonds, then they can just hire non-Russian citizen, assistants, or buy the same diamonds in Singapore or Dubai.
Well, at least USSR didn’t mass deport your people to Siberia and didn’t flood your country with colonists, so that’s understandable why there is no such displeasure with aftermath like in Baltic States.
ADDENDUM
If you need further proof that MAGA reform versus “authoritarian liberalism” is a winner…
SJW Islamic Globalism has announced their next attack on Christian America (1)
MAGA reform is receiving the Red Carpet to Success. The Nazi-crat party is besieged by internal members wanting more even more, highly unpopular, SJW Islamic Fascism.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2022/02/23/aoc-led-squad-reveals-latest-strategy-designed-to-give-joe-biden-midterm-election-nightmares-n526663
There were some Nazi collaborators deported from Slovakia in 1945-46, a few hundred who were in top positions during WWII. Most came back in 2-3 years, often to get a second whammy from the new commie government in Prague after 1948. (Incidentally, the current Prime Minister’s grandpa spent 2 years after 1945 in the Ural Mnt penal colony, he was during WWII the head of “Slovak air force” on the eastern front. Yes, that’s not a joke, I think they had mostly balloons and some pigeons.)
The Balts were different: they formed SS divisions, domestic mass murder of Jews done by them personally, shooting at Red Army as it came in. So there are two sides to this story – you just don’t like the other side. Regarding the ‘colonists’, there were many, but Latvia already had 12% Russian population in 1910, and Riga was a Russian-German city. Again there are two sides.
Quite interesting that in 1980, the CDU was still asking questions about lands lost to Poland.
Mass deportations of peaceful population by Soviets started BEFORE any of this happened you listed above. The start of first wave was June 14, 1941, when about 30 thousand civilians were snatched out from their homes, pushed into cattle vagons and sent into northern lattitudes where many of them perished out of hunger and diseases the very first winter. That’s why anger&hatred was absolutely red hot because of this and just after one week Nazis came in they were enthusiastically greeted (mistakenly) as a liberators by many.
Although still no casus belli for a large operation, which is strange (feels like Syria in 2015 which was a comparatively small operation) I would write another motivation against “false flag” terrorist attack in anything central Moscow or other priority areas.
A virtue of the “Prince” in the postsoviet world, is to present impression that they are responsible for order, stability and wealth. The easiest way is to create displaycase cities, which present these impressions.
This is why Lukashenko converts Minsk to become as clean as Singapore, how Aliev’s Baku is like a disney version of Paris, and also central Moscow is intentionally cleaning up to a mixture of Switzerland and Monaco.
If there would be a “false flag” terrorist attack (besides all these interrupted “Ukrainian Nazi” attacks in the border or Crimea that are not a sufficient casus belli), it should not too much damage the sense of order, and this is displayed nowadays in the priority areas.
Yes, I mean these are the most “elite and special” Chechen units, which are used to hunt and liquidate the people who oppose the government within the Chechen Republic.
These have been identified as including Kadyrov’s most elite internal security unit which is now in Crimea.
This is what their “specialism” has been for years. So if they go to Ukraine, they can be “experts” in this. They would surely be used after the Ukrainian army is defeated, to manage areas.
Kadyrov’s most elite unit (from which killer of Nemtsov* graduated) is now near to Odessa so they can be managing this area.
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* To explain, Nemtsov was a politician who criticized the government a lot, especially Putin. He was shot in 2015 by the ex-soldier of Kadyrov’s most elite unit.
British media is publishing about this story, with a video from the company that sells the equipment.
If it was true that this would be used (which I have not seen evidence yet?), it is also a sign of how determined the political layer will be to attain the fast result in Ukraine.
But it would also means it would be difficult to know what is the real number of casualties there will be after the war, for little this is actually significant in the postsoviet space.
I guess people could try to calculate retrospectively deaths on both sides by looking at excess deaths?
Why? Funerals and notes of death to relatives still will be happening, just instead coffins it will be urns. So far this propaganda video, just instad of RF, it’s UK and Skabeeva with Popov can say it’s meant for heaps of dead cruel banderites anyway.
Well, the ruble isn’t collapsing yet, but we have the weakest of all time.
And something happening according to Twitter.
I couldn’t even expend effort to watch anymore.
From Twitter clips, it doesn’t seem too “high budget propaganda”, doing videos with fireworks and the wrong noises, to present as artillery attacks from Ukraine.
To make a point I was going to mention to Emil Nikola Richard after his mention of the endless medical interventions of the rich, the transhumanist dream will be unlikely to apply to proles. If the technological workaround are ever perfected to drastically extend lifespan, they will be taken advantage of by the super-rich who will just ossify their position of material dominance in a longer window of time.
In the end, it seems that few humans even figure out how to use 80 years very well, much less 800.
It just seems so silly as a society how much energy we expend to deny the existence of death, even using coy euphemisms like “passed away”. I know folks who won’t even take their kids to funerals because they don’t think they can handle it. I’ve always taken my kids to many funerals, and since we’ve had some of our children born at home they have also seen their siblings born. They take it all in stride since it just seems like part of life to them.
Anyone who is afraid of death is also afraid of life, I think. A lot of this comes back around to a rejection of the spiritual dimension. Will I “shut off” like a broken clock when I die? I can’t say for a complete certainty, but I’ve had enough first hand experience of the spiritual to find it to be a very remote chance. Even if it was the case, so what? Life is a great gift regardless and all I can hope is that I’ve done my best in the world.
During Covid I started using the term “pathological safety” to describe this.
I’ll raise my nightly dram of Scotch to you all and wish that we might all die with honor!
Maybe the official budget is high, but people who are spending the money, simply use the cheapest imaginable option and take the rest of the cash into own pocket, lol
Yes lol, of course. And for speeches on “different days”, no change of clothing, but change of the camera filter.
Mistakes have consequences. Gigantic mistakes, like welcoming German Nazis, forming SS divisions to fight with them, killing Jews, communists and Russians – that is pretty bad, what did you expect to get in 1945? A pad on the back and instant forgiveness? If you – the Balts – had a right to over-react and act like animals for 4 years, why didn’t the winners of WWII have the same right? Especially since there is a strong suspicion that many Balts were not really sorry about their collaboration with the Nazis, they were just sorry that they lost. You seem to exemplify that.
Regarding the BEFORE part: not quite the way you describe it. The Baltic states before WWII were fascist-like nationalist dictatorships that killed and imprisoned opposition and minorities. When equally brutal Soviet communists took over they exacted revenge – and a large part of that revenge was done by local Baltic commies released from Balt-run prison camps. Again you seem ok with oppression and murder by your side, but go hysterical when the other side does it – even as a retaliation as was the case in the Baltic states. Don’t mess with stronger people, or don’t cry if you lose and suffer consequences.
The multiculturalists are betting on Asian & Indian immigrants providing the necessary skilled and professional labor, but they are also having low fertility.
This is the main reason for accelerating AI development & automation, because high IQ groups have low fertility and low IQ groups also have falling fertility.
Houellebecq wrote such a scenario extremely vividly in a dystopian sci-fi (generally not a genre I’m a fan of) novel, La Possibilité d’une Île, quite possibly the bleakest and most joyless novel I ever read, even to the point of it’s own detriment.
It didn’t help that the protagonist was absolute human garbage (not a spoiler) either. But a powerful antitote to techno-utopians pondering the solution of humanity’s flaws through transplanted lamb’s wombs and the genetic editing of human embryos.
They should show Poland & Russia what it means by genuine de-communization, like what Putin says. (But “France, Britain” & the US will hold Germany down)
No, the Germans formed the SS divisions and illegally mobilized many Latvians and Estonians (took the best youths essentially). Those who joined voluntarily did so because their relatives had been murdered by Bolsheviks in 1940 and there is no shame in it as that was one of the very few ways to defend their families at the time (the Germans came later, in 1941). The Balts themselves did not form the Legion, but some of them became officers (only natural for them to command their own troops). Remember also that the state no longer existed and some statesmen from the independence period were sent to the camps by Germans (a lesser known fact is that not just commies were sent to camps, but also nationalists and supporters of independence, and even an occasional Italian style fascist).
The SD was predominantly German and the shooters were predominantly German.
.
An absolutely normal and commendable thing for any self-respecting man to do when his country is being invaded. There should’ve been more. Especially if the invaders murdered or deported your relatives (including female) a few years prior.
He’s Lithuanian and the Lithuanians showed a big, collective middle finger to the Germans when they wanted to mobilize Lithuanians into a legion. They had more stamina than Latvians and Estonians and possibly the moral backing of their Catholic church helped, too. This same perseverance probably allowed them to keep off the Russian colonists from being imported later.
Many Lithuanian intellectuals were shot by Germans. It is you who doesn’t know or want to hear the full story.
There may have been something like 10% or so, but those Russians were completely different. Mostly Old Believers and Russian families with roots. They were very well integrated and many of them loyal. The Old Believers had seats in the parliament. It is completely incomparable, so please do not muddy the waters. As to the children of the recent colonists, they are integrating slowly and many are inseparable from the natives. These current events with Ukraine put them under risk, as well, unnecessarily.
Btw, you could never tolerate that number of, let’s say, Madyars or Germans in Slovakia. Especially if they were given privileges and backed by a much larger occupation power. Your words are fluff. Populate Slovakia with 40% entitled Madyars or Germans (or even Ukes) and then we’ll talk.
This is not true at all, already in the late 19th century Riga was mostly Latvian, not to mention the 1930s when the Latvian culture thrived and dominated there. Latvians were present in Riga since the very beginning (even during the early Teutonic days, there was a Latvian guild that was responsible for the delivery of beer into the city, a tally used by this guild has been preserved, that’s written in both German and Latvian). The historical presence of Slavs, largely Poles, is incomparable to the big influx of the Russian speakers later.
As we see now, unfortunately, the presence of Russian speakers in the countries surrounding Russia, is also a huge liability. Not their fault, but Kremlin’s.
btw, how Chinese commies are reacting to such calls of decommunization? Or simply there are no real ideological commies left anyway as it is just facade for capitalist economy now? For comparison commies in RF were quite butthurt in principle, despite obviously still supporting the decision to invade.
So a lot of explosions on the livestreams in Ukraine, from cruise and tactical ballistic missile attacks.
A day begins with a massacre of slavic people.
Work of Soviet military engineering, used to destroy Soviet infrastructure and kill slavic people. Maybe Hegel could explain.
I mean, it is not just “bombing Voronezh”, but bombing such a historically central city as Kiev. Imagine how people like Janacek could have imagined it, I guess as dystopian reductio ad absurdum of panslavism.
Originally, it had a spiritual connotation about the immortal soul. I think at least part of that context remains, if perhaps not for everyone who uses it.
Original Irish tradition was to keep watch over the body until it was buried, the belief being that the soul did not depart until funeral rights were complete. So, technically, they “died” first and “passed” at least a day later, sometimes longer, depending on the remoteness of the place and the difficulty of getting priestly services.
Although of course they already bombed Moscow in 1999 (always outside the Third Ring, so I guess it’s not really Moscow from their point of view).
But while a few hundred people were killed then, that was far more minor, than this probably already is becoming.
Was just talking to GR about Nibelungenlied, and I discovered it was banned from German schools after WW2, which I find really shocking. Not sure if it is still banned (would appreciate it, if any German would say if they read it in school), though there still seems to be a great deal of controversy about it in schools.
I emphasize it is not my favorite myth by a long shot (though I do like certain parts of it). I think Beowulf is superior by a wide margin, but, to think about it intellectually, I also find it really shocking that Beowulf is not required curriculum in German schools either.
Are there any German myths that Germans are allowed to have? Perhaps, Grimm fairy tales?
Another thing I found interesting is not only, as I said are there attempts to paint Anglo-Saxons, as some variegated, multicult group that came to England, but apparently, there is a wide political effort to deconstruct and refute the term “Germanic peoples.”
It’s on. I was expecting the Russians to clean up the Donbass, but it seems like they are after totally eliminating Ukraine’s offensive capacity. I’ve been told that there have been strikes on Harkov, Krasnopolje, Pridneprovsk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Borispol, Nikolaev, Odesa, Kiev and, probably, a landing in Mariupol.
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/30378?fbclid=IwAR3InC1nBzcz47xwFblow7R3vDnE3wDSghSlj6c_3uW5E75ZkMEy5UT8dGo
https://t.me/rian_ru/147786?fbclid=IwAR1V1U4J-Dr1qSQt-cy4AcuJvhuieRRbjzKGArTEGut3o6J2F3BQK0dzebM
https://vk.com/video-206639135_456244784?list=ln-uxXjA9T8hdW7SLZlpM&fbclid=IwAR2l52Qw_pXsSyS6n_NuCHagMpChZ4XSxMMhrUbs7uqmapYx0-JHXyPcZ04
https://t.me/voenacher/9561?fbclid=IwAR3UfT13-Bkt6EP3TzxScRATx3I6A26dRHZ1WWRqNZaoy85BfhqIi4DiUHY
I mean what’s there to say
I knew Putin was going to attack
I guess the only “positive” thing to come out of this ..maybe other Eastern European guys(that is the NATO ones) will be put on high alert now as not to trust Russia( i mean they dont already)
Or maybe that was probably the whole point of US as to unite the West against an enemy idk
Well, young men of Ukraine are being killed in terms of probably thousands, at this moment, by the artillery and grad missiles.
Impossible, to say it in a positive way.
And about Russia? It’s not exactly darwin award, as this multinational ruling class responsible for killing of slavic youth, are half based in Monaco, Europe and anywhere else, and will be more protected from the consequences than everyone else.
Most of the world is on your side. Hail UA, hail the valiant!
Warm embrace.
They are getting totally demolished, it’s not even funny.
You think I dont know that??
Thats why I said “positive” in parenthesis
The first volleys were expected to be devastating. There are a mix of real and fake contradictory news at the moment. Horrible. Will try to go to bed.
The blood is on the hands of the attackers, course.
No, it is on the hands of whoever provoked this.
War is a serious business, it is never funny. And this one could have been avoided. People are dying for a “sacred principle” that nobody really understands and that has never been applied consistently anywhere. That principle is: “we get to put our missiles on your border because the locals like it, so shut up“…how do the locals feel now?
Returning to the maps from the months ago.
It matches the standard maps, instead of the Philip Owen’s theory of immediate move to Lvov.
But from air strikes all over West Ukraine and Putin’s speech about removing the Nazis that rule Ukraine, it seems obvious they will move for West Ukraine.
Thousands of Chechen units and other internal troops, have been building up for reason.
Chechen specialist units would be used to remove political opposition in West Ukraine and kill the Ukrainian nationalists.
It could be a kind of ultimate postsoviet dystopia, from which inspiration will be used for generations of apocalypse films.
In addition, there will be use of digital gulag developed in Moscow for recent years like electronic surveillance, live face recognizing (which is already operating in Moscow metro and making database of Russian citizens), to discover people in Ukraine who opposed Moscow.
Outside world will view as disgusting, but their attitude is like they are watching drunk homeless man is murdering an unarmed heroin user, in postsoviet trash can of history.
Even as we pretend to believe fake government statistics about the economic stability fund, and sense of humor to laugh at the corruption, etc. Local realities always everyone’s worst expectations.
This was the best article on all the topic I read in recent weeks, to predict everything.
It is written by an Italian soldier who lives in Ukraine.
Full article. https://medium.com/@noclador/putins-plan-4652895de8ba
Attacker will always claim to be provoked.
I agree with your overall view on the situation. They poked and poked and poked yet again – well, they’ve, finally, awaken the Bear. And the eternal question arises: how to get the Bear back to its den?
Claims can be true or false, in this case 100% true. Up your propaganda game bro.
So far nothing is clear much, dust not settled, even if AK already surely conquered both Mariupol and Odessa and defeted all UA army in 2hours, other RF propagandist Cassad denied it.
Even if you want to believe “emotionless rational view” of Russia’s “national self-interest”.
If they destroy the airports in Ukraine, who will rebuild it? Where is the budget?
If this was an empty country, without human lives, you would still be using Soviet military equipment to destroy Soviet infrastructure. In Soviet times, there was a powerful economy to rebuild these things. But in postsoviet times, the competitive economy and industry is not existing beyond profits from natural resource extraction. Today, there is nothing like the Soviet times, that could rebuild a country rapidly after war.
Without trivializing reality where thousands of Ukrainians are being killed at this moment, to talking about budget. But it makes no logical sense from Russian perspectives.
This is a country where there is not money to build a single metro station cannot after 30 year in Chelyabinsk. There is no budget for more than half of Russia. Add rebuilding Ukrainian infrastructure to the national budget. How many decades until opening e.g. Chelyabinsk metro?
Maybe the cynical calculation is that majority of Chelyabinsk people will have way more mental pleasure from military might than using working metro?
Fierce fighting, no mass desertions so far. Hundreds casualties. Horrible.
Fake news so far: Mariupol taken; Kiev airport taken; Russians in Odessa.
She’s right you know. My view of Putin as being fundamentally rational has not changed. He was pushed into a corner by relentless aggression. He tried to settle the issue diplomatically in a negotiated and lasting way. He was scorned, rebuffed, laughed at and ignored.
Great powers cannot allow hostile military alliances up on their doorstep. The Americans went apeshit during the Cuban missile crisis – and for good reason. I don’t know why people expected Russia to lie down and take it.
What did I get wrong? The West. I did not anticipate them to be this remarkably foolish. I thought that Putin’s extraordinary and last-ditch actions would force a radical reconsideration in Western capitals. This crisis has its origins in their capitals. Putin may be a cautious and rational leader, but even the cautious have red lines and he telegraphed his many years in advance, repeatedly. It all fell on deaf ears. The result is seen before us now.
When we talk of a full invasion, that implied an occupation of Ukraine, regime change and basically a takeover of the country.
What we’re seeing now are military installations being attacked across the country. Clearly Putin want to defang Ukraine, but to permanently occupy (or even forcefully annex) is different matter. Maybe he will change his mind. Maybe he’s lying. The situation is “fluid” as they say.
Public opinion is irrelevant in Russia as always .
But considering public mood in all the country after last decade of declining income, you can doubt much of the Chelyabinsk people will be like they want to celebrate about the killing of slavic relatives in Ukraine. E.g. comments in local media https://74.ru/text/politics/2022/02/24/70465478/comments/
At least they don’t have live face recognition systems installed in Chelyabinsk. There is one advantage of their small budget. Digital gulag is partly only so advanced in Moscow, as a curse of their unlimited budget.
–
Ukrainian civilians are not going to welcome with bread and salt, after killing many civilians in Ukrainian cities.
There will be so many civilians killed, because most of the weapons are not precision weapons. It’s only a minority of weapons in the Russian army, which will be precision weapons.
E.g. killed civilian in central Uman by a rocket. So, unguided missiles are falling in the central streets of Uman, which must be far from the war zone.
This is a problem of relying on unguided munitions. There will be many civilian deaths. But guided munitions are far too expensive for majority use, except for some armies like the US army.
I cannot see how “long term security problem” of Ukraine could be solved after the invasion and killing of civilians.
In his vocabulary, he is not currently occupying Crimea, so it just does not make any sense to think about from international perspective, so this just empty statement atm which might mean anything he wants.
Ending any NATO aspirations once and for all is sufficient. Removing Zelensky would be a big bonus.
The big question remains if Russia has the will to do a permanent occupation of Ukraine.
Haven’t seen how Chinese media react on Putin’s decision.
(What I mean by the call now should be painfully obvious, and I probably get what you mean, tho I will refrain from commenting on it or any war matters from now on. That German comment is supposed to be facetious)
“Removing Zelensky would be a big bonus.” – What is that to you? Zelensky did not build enough bicycle lanes or what?
As predicted, like Grozny videos and images.
precicion strikes my ass – net analogov v mire…
Yes, but if the idea is to divide Ukraine to many parts, it will involve controlling of multiple different governments, like DNR, LNR.
Something like Lukashenko solution (dictator who presents as a populat democratic president probably recipe in wide protests) is already becoming more unlikely as they kill civilians now.
After this you could need someone more like Kadyrov to control the more difficult areas (I don’t mean literally Kadyrov, although his forces will be used – I mean they will need strict local leaders)
There is a Warsaw Pact kind of solution if you can a install strict dictator. But even Warsaw Pact required great investment in those countries, and sometimes involved military intervention like Hungary 1956.
I agree they are rational, but it doesn’t necessarily match with national interest.
For example, in 1999 they bomb residential buildings in Moscow, Volgodonsk. It kills 300 Russian civilians. Everyone who investigates is killed. Days of discussion deleted from the parliament, etc.
It’s very rational from their perspective of personal interest. It’s rational from the external view. But being rational and matching with national interest, are separate topics.
I was writing about the national interest, not the leaders’ interest. National interest is more important from our perspective. Although for external diplomacy, other countries might be thinking also about leaders’ interest and how to create incentives relative to this.
first burning RF(?) armour on video in Kharkiv:
No such thing as precision weapons.
I think this is a mistake by Russia, but it is an even bigger failure by the European elites.
Will the Russian military withdraw shortly, like Georgia, or will they go to the Dnieper and create Novorossiya, not clear at all.
My solidarity with AP. I “fought” with him several times about the fate and rights of people living in Eastern Ukraine. But this is a totally unjustified aggression.
——————————————————————————————
Anothe AK article
https://akarlin.substack.com/p/military-technical-decommunization?utm_source=url
I wonder if we will find out if Putler has real balls.
Will he, at some near time, issue an ultimatum on the removal of offensive weapons in the Balts?
Words cannot convey the sadness and grief that I feel this morning, after staying up late and watching the terror that Putin has unleashed on the beautiful country of my ancestors, Ukraine. This infamy will go down in history as a black page comparable to the vicious deeds of Hitler when he started his aggressions in Europe. As the correspondents and politicians have conveyed, this action opens up a new chapter within the world’s historical process that regulates international relations including the rules governing the way European countries interact. A very large black cloud has enveloped the world. A new real cold war will follow this treachery. God help us all.
Regular people always pay the real price for the ambitions of politicians, and I take no pleasure in seeing what is happening in Ukraine now.
From a political standpoint, Putin had to walk away with a substantial victory, diplomatic or military, or be rendered impotent. Putin is pushing for the multi-polar reality and the US is still stubbornly refusing to countenance it. The US cannot continue to impose will, and it seems that Putin decided that this was the balance point.
I see that Biden is talking more sanctions, which is quite a laugh.
It has been increasingly clear for years that the US is a paper tiger, but this will punctuate it. Not that the US really has much of a choice. It can’t continue to run the world and it’s best bet is to acknowledge the multi-polar reality and scale back it’s commitments and ambitions accordingly. Continuing to chase hegemonic status is just a recipe for full collapse.
Britain was smart enough to wind down the Empire in a fairly controlled way and the US should (not that they will) be wise enough to do the same.
I see that Biden is talking more sanctions, which is quite a laugh.
Don’t make light of this.
He is promising severe sanctions. Not only that, he promises to lead the world in “holding Russia accountable”.
The Russkies better turn tail now while they still have a chance.
Ukraine was not going to be considered for NATO inclusion for a long, long time. Russia’s response to an imaginary threat is not rational. In other words, NATO inclusion for Ukraine was the only pretext that Russia has been able to come up with to cover its maniacal desire to control the fate of Ukraine. I can foresee a dark hole that Russia has just entered that will not help its desire to recreate an empire again. It’ll take much longer today to try and recreate a fake Ukrainian country like the one that the soviets created.
Washington and Brussels called it “collateral damage” when they bombed Serbia, Iraq (‘shock and awe‘), Libya, Syria… Is Russia allowed to do that too, or do we have now new rules?
Your concern with that extra metro station in Chelyabinsk is touching. In Prague they have been planning to build 2 new metro lines for the last 30 years. The metro was built in the 70-80’s and then they completely stopped in 1990. But the planning and spending has been going on, just no new stations for 30 years. It is the same with most large cities in Europe and the West. In Boston, they are running the infamous Line D that looks like an 1890’s coal mine piddling joke-train. This lack of metro expansion is a broader issue than just Chelyabinsk. Nobody has been building much new infrastructure. But bombs and missiles, oh yes, all around. Now there will be more.
Rebuilding Ukraine? It doesn’t look like Russia has any plans to occupy it, so why would they worry about rebuilding? They will eliminate military assets – broadly defined and with mistakes, that damn “collateral damage” again. Then take strategic areas where they are welcomed or that are easy to control, and leave the rest to its fate to be helped by Kiev’s friends in the West. They can print the money.
Kiev desperately wants to be in EU and be western, I am sure their friends in Warsaw, London and Berlin will pay for the rebuilding, forgive the $170 billion debt, and throw in some walking around money for shopping in Milano since Putin’s niece won’t be coming. I would be more worried about that metro expansion in Warsaw than about Chelyabinsk.
You in general seem to have some deep hatred for Russia. I have seen that among bitter emigres who had difficult childhoods, maybe somebody bullied you in school because you wore glasses? Try to be more level-headed, settling scores from childhood is a fool’s errand. See where it got the poor Galicians.
Even if Ukraine wasn’t going to be considered for NATO membership for a long time it’s not like Russia is imagining all the little expansions and provocations of the West. This is not to say that Putin is blameless, but he’s not irrational.
If Putin really tries to outright occupy Ukraine long term, that will be crazy, given how much animosity many in Ukraine feel towards Russia. It would be more rational to seek a reestablishment of a pre-2014 Russian leaning Ukraine.
This is an invasion? I was expecting some ungodly saturation attacks followed up with Red Dawn-style paratroopers, rolling tanks and re-education camps. All I got was all the LDNR forces supported by a very tiny number of Russian missile strikes (SEAD, counter battery), a mini no-fly zone and special operations (for bridges and airports; heliborne assaults are badass).
I guess they really are going to capture these neo-nazis (dead or alive) and bring them back for some old school black-and-white tribunals. They have the names apparently.
That is so lame.
New chapter? How about the NATO bombing of Serbia? Killing over 500 civilians to create an independent state for separatists. No “new chapter” there? Poor Olaf Sholtz said there is nothing to see in Kosovo. That was before he laughed of the fate of Donbas people as “ridiculous”. Try some consistency.
You see a black cloud and the ever-present ‘Hitler’. But this seems different – consequences for over-reach and stupidity. Russia repeatedly offered a deal and Kiev and Washington laughed. The Minsk deal and no Ukraine in NATO would have fixed it overnight – would that be so bad, or worse than what is going on now?
This is the management of consequences for the bombing of civilians in Donbas, deranged dreams of conquering Kuban, Bandera marches, endless hollow speeches to each other in Munich. (Out of all places they had to do it in Munich. Last time the Brits met there with Hitler to approve his attack on the east – ‘go east, mein Fuhrer, just east, and have at those damn peasants‘. The Anglos never learn.)
Ukraine was de facto accepted to NATO in 2008, it was only a question of time. Don’t lie.
Yahoo’s write-up is really curious:
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-president-throws-nazi-label-112002085.html
I’m tempted to find that article in which they were comparing Noriega to “Hitler.”
This comment by Ron Unz on Karlin article should be framed to remind everybody how poor his judgment is, how easily it is clouded by his preconceptions and wishful thinking.
The difference between Karlin and Unz is that Karlin is earnest Kremlin supporter while Unz is Kremlin’s useful idiot.
I read about this in a biography of Putin.
But I came to the conclusion that it was, for an American, impossible to verify, impossible to separate the truth from the fiction. Somewhat similar to the tales of Kim Jong-un feeding his opponents to dogs. The picture they paint is very damning, but are all the brushstrokes the truth?
Easier to swallow for me was the idea that Putin’s first car was given to him by the Baader-Meinhof Gang. I can easily imagine him accepting it, and using it to drive back to Russia.
You put out a valiant effort – but you are defending the indefensible. With all due respect, to use terms like:
“those who joined voluntarily did so because…”
“not just commies were sent to camps, but also nationalists …”
blabla, you know you are wrong.
All you wrote are endless lame evasion and obfuscation. You have your own emotional truth and refuse to consider the other side. But you are defending a genocide and the Balts role in it.
To say that it was ok to fight on the side of Nazi Germany against the Red Army in WWII is pretty sick. You actually said that “more should had done it“. Well, ok, people have their reasons, and so and so, but what you are saying is that the Balts fighting WITH THE NAZIS was ok, commendable.
Balts participated in the genocide in WWII. That is a crime that was denounced in Nurnberg after WWII. You defend it. Again, that is sick. How can one have a rational argument with that? Try to see how it looks to others who don’t see Russians, Jews, or even “commies” as subhuman who can be killed. You are on the wrong side of history and there is a price to pay for that.
“Hitler” and “Nazi” must be the most meaningless insults on the planet by now.
Trump being “literally Hitler” was the ultimate jumping of the shark. Now…
“What do you mean you are out of sourdough bread?! This grocery store is like the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany!!”
A night of habbenings. Karlin vindicated, almost to the hour, but this is not surprising because Putin reads him.
Despite his reputation, Putin apparently made a terrible mistake by misreading Not-The-President Biden. Instead of caution, Putin openly made demands that he could not pull back. When the Alzheimer’s patient occupying the White House did something unexpected, Putin was caught flat footed.
All sides lost when the shooting started. Hopefully, the “war” will end soon. The “peace” is likely to be ugly. The current Ukrainian regime will back insurgents in the Donbass region and possibly Russia itself. Putin will likely do the same in Ukraine.
The war will end… The fighting will not…
PEACE 😇
I returned to this thread specifically to see if there were comments by AP and Mr. Hack, and indeed there were. While I am not a supporter of the Ukrainian idea, naturally one must feel sorrow for those whose lives are being shattered along with sympathy for comrades (if only discussion forum comrades).
I also wanted to see if Felix Keverich, who was convinced the Kremlins are cucks who will never do anything, would return to admit he was wrong. No such sighting.
As for Karlin and other Russian nationalists/imperialists, I suppose congratulations may be in order–depending on the final outcome.
“Words cannot convey the sadness and grief that I feel this morning” – Russia will pay. Russians will suffer eternal shame and damnation. The solace for the innocent and righteous ones is in the justice that will be meted out in the future.
All depends how quickly this wraps up, what the sanctions are, and the final settlement imposed on the Ukraine. First time Putin really has done something Hitleresque, gambled.
Brains saturated by conspiracy theories are by definition resistant to reality.
Alright, let’s do a sitrep.
– Military
Kiev’s airport is now taken. The encirclement of the capital has almost been completed and re-reinforcements will arrive from Belarus shortly.
Kherson (southern city) is being entered by troops as I write this. Kharkov in the east is seeing the heaviest fighting thus far.
It looks grim for the Kiev regime. Hard to see they last much longer than a week, possibly less. Removal of Zelensky now looks all but certain.
– Economics
Sanctions are unlikely to be cataclysmic. Reports are already flooding in how Russia won’t be kicked off from SWIFT. Germany and Italy have demanded carve-outs for energy exports. Even the stock market fall of 40% merely takes it back to 2017. The ruble is likely being defended by central bank but oil at triple-digit prices will swell Russia’s coffers, which are already very ample.
– Humanitarian
Civilian casualties appear to be limited thus far. Lots of refugees streaming across the borders to the West.
– Endgame
The biggest puzzle left to be solved. Putin has denied wanting to permanently occupy Ukraine. Is he aiming for installing a pliant puppet regime? It all depends how likely you think Ukrainians will lie down and accept this. Ukraine has a much more differentiated identity than e.g. Belarus. I agree with GR that guerilla warfare is unlikely, but a general hostility to a puppet regime installed from Moscow would make the country difficult to rule. You can’t solve every issue with a bayonet. Are soldiers going to go down to village level and tell people how to behave?
That was you 3 days ago.
FWIW, I was skeptical of an invasion, as were many others here, and there were good reasons for it. Karlin’s ideas that Putin is motivated by demographic impulses to absorb Ukraine’s population doesn’t seem too likely either, especially if Putin is content with installing a puppet regime and then retreating his army. But let’s not be hypocritical in attacking Unz for a position you also held.
Is it better to laugh? Or, cry?
This sums up the White House response to the Russian incursion.
PEACE 😇
IMO, they are not meant to be insults, but smears or power plays. I guess their effectiveness grows as one heads to Germany and then maybe wanes, as one heads into Eastern Europe.
Hate to say it, but I don’t think we have reached peak “Nazi” yet. That might come with mass trials or a bloody civil war. Though, I am not predicting either soon.
On a loose tangent, I do wonder how much of this might have been caused by Francis Fukuyama influencing US policy. There’s an aggressive side of it, that can’t be disarmed, but, IMO, a lot of NATO expansion can be seen as being primarily political, about integrating Eastern Europe into the Western political sphere. And they’ve probably been viewing Russia as a permanently defeated power, subjectable to any amount of insults and provocations, without consequence.
Come on there is a big difference. I wrote “This might be a good sign” expressing hope against hope which is what any decent person would feel confronted with looming war while Unz was shilling for Putin repeating Russia Today and Zacharova’s talking points and gloating on the thought of how foolish everybody and especially American media and politicians would look when the attack would not materialize in a week or two.
It’s not the main airport but the one owned by the Antonov company. Ukrainian special forces are being engaged there in heavy fighting now.
Russians were allowed to move north of Crimea towards Kherson because that area is flat, treeless and impossible to defend.
Russia has taken Sumy, an oblast capital in the northeast.
Russian forces was stopped in Chernihiv oblast. Ukrainians there have captured the entire reconnaissance platoon of the Russian 74th motorized brigade.
Ukrainians have held most of their positions in the face of furious fighting in Donbas.
So far there is seen quite a resolve to fight, but overall situation when being attacked from all sides at once, except western, is incredibly damn hard. It looks like the main primary RF strategic objective is to cut UA in half thus separating the most strong UA Donbas grouping.
btw, you were absolutely right about the absence of long remote bobmardment, they went almost straight at land.
How much does this move the odds on Taiwan by summer?
BTW, I wonder if the airlines were tipped off.
Do you mean country, government? Or its current situation?
Probably because of personal luck and insulation, my views usually go much more “kremlinbot” than a normal person who sees the same thing.
For example, if you see a film about scam or tricks, where the scammer is the hero. This is possible if you are not the victim of the scam.
In my situation or my family, until 2014, we were also all very optimistic, as we had experienced a lot of improvements.
As for the life choices, as opposed to the conscious views. I’ve fortunately been following instincts for years, which are much more pessimistic than conscious views.
I think you absorb the pessimistic instincts unconsciously if you know personally people from “golden” position, were in a complete behaving opposite, in every way, than how you would if you followed official claims.
I think this is much more of the reality for American emigrants (i.e. people from high income countries that go to low income countries). It’s also something that was true in the Soviet times, when the emigration and being dissident are almost co-extensive.
But for myself, and most of the (non-Baltic country origins) Russians in Europe, Cyprus, etc (although in Israel is a very different situation,), I think it’s the opposite.
We are usually selected for being much more comfortable and lucky in the personal experiences.
I would say I am angry that I was exposed to a lot of pollution in my youth, especially if there would be health consequences.
I don’t care that I was in an asset stripped school and asset stripped university, as a child you don’t perceive it negatively in the same way. Or I was born in an asset stripped hospital, but my only memory of the hospital is when I visited it as a teenager.
But if you are a mother who has to have a child in an asset stripped hospital? Children and babies don’t have to worry about these things.
Just because “government A does crime in country B”, doesn’t mean country “C should do crime in country D”.
Actually, in each case it becomes worse, as we have more examples to learn from.
It’s not an extra station, it is their first station. They are building the first station of the metro for 30 years.
But I’m just using this as it is a famous example (maybe not outside Russia, you don’t know this story).
You can talk about hospitals instead. So, life expectancy in Russia is lower than Bangladesh. Why? Many reasons, like alcoholism, lack of sun, etc. But outside the most elite cities like Moscow, hospitals are extremely asset-stripped, from any perspective.
If country has a priority for the population, then is destroying and re-building airports in Ukraine, more important than not asset stripping hospitals?
From a personal perspective, I don’t have to worry about this topic, so I can write about it with a sense of distance. My grandparent was able to have private operation from the most modern private clinic.
I don’t live in Russia, so if I needed healthcare, I would go to a modern hospital in a wealthy country I live.
But don’t you think it’s an illogical situation? As you are Czech, I would imagine more of a egalitarian attitude. I actually don’t have an egalitarian attitude and I’m still enough to be culture shocked a bit. If I just write comments from self-interest (who cares, let’s go to the private hospital), they also would have no relevance for other netizens to talk about.
This would be like the situation between Israel and Lebanon, where Israel bombs a lot of infrastructure in Lebanon (in 1982 and 2006), but does not pay to rebuild.
There is also an example of Georgia in 2008, where there was (small bombing).
These were examples of attempt to do a “behavior modification” of a government, after some event like an attack.
But here is regime change – this would be “you break it, you fix it”. There is not an imperialism scenario where you break the next country to install your own government, and don’t pay for it, where the security situation would be improved.
Something really absurd about Biden’s response being simultaneously signed.
Each time Biden lists Eastern allies, I feel like it is a peacock to show that he isn’t senile and can name them all.
I guess you can think about it like Bayesian probability.
For example, if you watch old television shows, and documentary films, from 20 years ago. Then you think “these people were saying good points” and “this is an interesting criticism of the official version”. I wonder where these people are today and why I didn’t know about them?
Then you search about them, and not one, but all are assassinated after. What would be the probably in Bayesian perspective, that everyone is co-incidentally assassinated who touches on the topic.
There are also other similar tests you can try, like trying to find which talks are deleted from the parliament website, and why only those ones would be.
But it’s just not a topic which is valuable to worry about or think about. I never think about it for years.
Except sometimes there are situations like this week, when it’s pushed to mind again, when they start releasing fake videos, etc.
Similarly, with Thulean’s point. He’s accurate that this is rational self-interest of a leader. But you know this is different topic from an abstract national interest.
Often leader’s self-interest and a theoretical national self-interest are co-extensive. But there are examples of strong divergences as well.
It is fascinating how people who oppose consumption of pork on moral grounds get enthusiastic over a triune dream built upon charred corpses, orphans, widows and mutilated bodies.
At any rate, Putin has proven AK right (although the cakewalk part is still to be seen) but he has also proven western russophobes right: he is a dangerous man with few scruples and now clearly stated territorial and revanchist aims.
Eventually I think that Russia, in triune form or not, will lose this new Cold War too. The fact that China doesn’t seem to be going to take advantage of this situation to invade Taiwan suggests that their alliance is more temporary and shallower than the western one. And it’s doubtful that even a strong Russian-Chinese alliance would defeat a united West.
It does not. Odds were 0% and remain 0%. Xi does not want to be personally responsible for a fiasco that shatters Taiwan. The CCP wants peaceful consolidation.
All of the major airlines, FAA, EASA, etc. share a system that warns about conflicts that may involve active anti-air emplacements. They can reroute planes away from potential hazards in a matter of hours. There is no need for a tipoff that could be leaked.
PEACE 😇
Nice to see you return “comrade” Thorfinnsson again, how have you been? We have been talking about how we hope you would return to us. .
What interpretation of nationalism though (I know there is a lot of difference in translation of this between languages)? I would say only an embrace of imperialism.
I’m usually more towards imperialism than nationalism. But a nationalist perspective, is another from which you will be pessimistic for the slavic nation, beyond the human disaster.
Thousands of Ukrainian young men are killed in a few hours in the morning by the Shoigu artillery and aviation.
Unlike in past times (where young men could be a large proportion of the population) Ukraine’s population pyramid

Meanwhile, in Russia there is a population replacement situation (where people who complain will be imprisoned), and in the most important cities, have no-go areas for slavic people emerging in the last decade. (Maybe if LatW wants to translate https://www.e1.ru/text/criminal/2022/02/17/70449113/ )
Again, I’m not a nationalist. I’m an optimistic, anti-racist, person who hopes imperialism can result in a harmony. But I add this data, as I cannot see that fratricide and massacre of already demographically slavic nationality, in this context is very congratulatory for nationalism. It means less slavic people in the world in the future, than otherwise.
On another hand, from an imperialism perspective, it is all former USSR and Russian Empire people, killing each other.
So, there is some kind of postsoviet re-union. Here we are the different Soviet peoples in our brotherly kindness to each other. I’m not saying this in a way to criticize non-slavic nationalities. It’s just a kind of dystopia for everyone that we go to this scenario.
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If you want to know some of the wider context culturally.
Postsoviet ideology is throwing options to recycle from the past. If you want to choose communism, nationalism and imperialism.
Nationalism is not demographically not possible in Russian Federation, as the country is multinational, especially the elite, but also the future young workers.
Return to communism, is not possible, from the elite, as egalitarianism is not possible to reconcile with self-interest.
But imperialism is very politically correct.
Yes, well we can hope.
I think we see re-enforcement of existing trends though. What do you think about the inflation situation will be? What is your advice in wars? (Without trivializing the moral situation, a bit more important than selfish bourgeois wallet counting).
I’d never say “zero”, but I suppose that one can look at it from the other side – maybe, it would make Taiwan more pliant, and thus lower the risk of immediate invasion.
Heard that Ukraine suspended civilian flights, when the attack began, but I wonder if there was any early pattern detectable in Russia. Maybe, airport delays, or something, so nothing direct.
Well, in Russia, OMON is imprisoning people crazy* who protests against war.
And in Ukraine, soon OMON will be imprisoning if they are lucky (considering all Kadyrov’s special units are going to be in Ukraine, maybe something more) anyone who protests against liberation .
So, at least, all will be the same in this sense. Maybe Belarus has some kind of “lighter” attitude..
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* I mean, “crazy” in normal sense, not sarcastic sense. They are kind of a Darwin award contestant to protest. And as we saw even in Belarus in 2020, it can result in worse scenarios for a country. Protesting of the peasants against their masters in this region, is simply not something with usually good results.
On the whole, the narrative about the “fake” bomb seemed really suspicious. I’d certainly lean towards the idea that Putin was guilty, from that, even more than from the journalists who went missing. But only slightly.
My perspective would probably change if I were Russian and could better understand what different people were saying. There’s probably a major filter, that anything one can find in America has gone through.
It’s clear to me that many people in Russia hate Putin, independent of the allegations about him, so I don’t feel very confident about anything. In a way, it would be like asking a Russian to judge all the stories that have come out about Clinton, and various people who were around him ending up dead – even as an American, I am not sure what to think about it, in every case.
When I first heard about it – quite a long time ago – I thought it was very paranoid, even though I was no Clinton fan – and yet by 2022, we have Epstein and his friend both hanging themselves in jail cells with the cameras broken.
The reason that I stated “nationalism/imperialism” is the dispute about the validity of the Ukrainian nationality. If one does not accept the existence of a Ukrainian nationality, then one may speak of a regathering of Russian lands and reunification of the Russian nation. If however the Ukrainian nation exists, then one must speak of Russian imperialism.
It appears that Putin himself has moved into the nationalist position that there is no Ukrainian nation per se, only a divided Russian one.
Without dismissing the dead and those still yet to die, from the nationalist Russian perspective the deaths in this war are a minor loss compared to the gain of being “reunited” with tens of millions of “fellow Russians”. Therefore if the war is brought to a successful conclusion without expanding into a wider war, it can be considered a success from the standpoint of Russian nationalists.
As for me personally, I’ve been very well. My main worry today is that the US government will sanction my investments in Russian equities.
Dmitry, you may not believe me when I say this, but you would have acted like Putin if you had been in his place. So would I. Personalities don’t matter as much as we’d like to think.
It’s in Russia’s national interest to stop a hostile military alliance creeping up on its border. It tried to solve the issue diplomatically. The West blocked any such resolution at every stage. We will now see a military imposition of what Russia had demanded: a neutral Ukraine.
The tragedy is that all this bloodshed could have been avoided if policymakers in the West had followed a pragmatic policy of balance of power. They did not, and here we are.
Deep water bodies complicate logistics.
The Taiwan strait is at its narrowest around 3 times wider that the English Channel at its narrowest and much deeper.
Taiwan also has a large number of anti ship cruise missiles with many more likely to be supplied at the first sign of an invasion force being assembled.There is little chance of the PLA landing 100,000+ soldiers across the straits.
The only way Taiwan capitulates is if the PLAN manages to blockade Taiwan, Cuban missile crisis style which is well beyond its present capabilities.
Also Russia in stark contrast to China is completely self sufficient in Energy,Food and industrial raw materials and thus cannot be crippled by a US led Naval blockade.China imports vast quantities of these and is vulnerable to such blockades.
So no its very unlikely Taiwan will be invaded successfully soon.
That’s a big if, essentially assuming Russia would make a big annexation of Ukraine. That was Karlin’s original position in his Feb 16th piece but on Twitter he has recently chickened out and now put the odds of a full annexation at much lower rates (very convenient instead of admitting you were wrong, which is the more honest thing to do).
No any offense or unneeded advice, but imho, if you have been reading this forum at least a week before this, you should have sold it all or at least been shorting.
No?
PLAN is already approaching the same size as the US Navy in tonnage, and it has far more missiles than Taiwan has, which it can use against any attempt to end the blockade.
China can import the grains and oil it needs from Russia. Do you think Russia would co-operate with isolating China given current events?
Red herring. China doesn’t need to invade, it merely needs to blockade Taiwan into submission. But doing so carries significant risks and Xi isn’t a gambler, like Putin. China is much more dependent on world trade and integration into global value chains than Russia is.
Finally, China is constantly growing far stronger. Russia is stagnant. So Beijing can afford to wait.
I concur. I should have said near 0%.
If the Taiwanese regime does so.drying particularly daft that could start a war. However, there is no sign that anything of that nature will occur.
PEACE 😇
Sounds like Rus forces are meeting more resistance than they thought they would, distinctly premature reports of advances and mass surrenders, always thought Russians overestimate the brotherly feeling with Ukrainians, just because someone speaks your language…
Autocorrect is bizarre, “so.drying” should be “something”. I have no idea how that correction came to be.
PEACE 😇
By absorbing Ukraine Russia on her own by her own choice is actually creeping closer to the hostile alliance borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Your Russia Today talking point is just another Kremlin BS. Are you that stupid or you have no shame?
Something in the order of 4000+ civilians have already died, the rouble is tanking with no survivors, and Russia’s international reputation is in tatters. Perhaps I missed something, but I don’t see what specifically changed in the past few months to ‘force’ Russia’s hand here.
Of course, in the geopolitical abstract Putin can be said to be acting in reactively against a much larger alliance, but to the average person around the world, it simply looks like Russia initiating hostilities against a smaller bordering country.
Notwithstanding official statements about the ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, it’s not as if the Ukrainian government or population ever voiced openly genocidal statements against Russians (how could they, when ~ 50% of their population is wholly Russian), like the Azeri government has done with Armenia for decades.
From a practical point of view this doesn’t change anything with regard to missile systems installed in Romania or Bulgaria either. I can’t call myself pro-Ukrainian, and too some measure Ukrainian gvmnt’s total lack of realism brought this on themselves, but AK’s triumphal attitude, posting cutsy memes whilst civilians’ houses are being shelled, is really quite disgusting.
Just the take of a ‘sundry limitrophe’ I guess, unfortunately I’m not some Swedish pajeet(ophile) so smugly distant from this I can cheerlead the invasion. Ultimately it’s just another manifestation of his TF’s contempt for Eastern Europeans in general.
Kudos to Akarlin for being right on-spot with his predictions and not being a hypocrite I suppose.. certainly it looks like as many Russians were blindsided by the declaration of a full invasion as many Westoids.
Ukrainian special forces have finally liquidated the Russian paratroopers at the airport outside Kiev. Battle took hours, Russians had air support.
Ukrainians lost Snake Island on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian marines and border guards there had refused to surrender and fought to the end against superior Russian naval forces.
Intense bombing of Mariupol, still under Ukrainian control. Russian wishful thinkers thought that it had been taken in the first hour.
Of course there will be massive bombing tonight by the murderous demons, who with their actions are turning all Ukrainians into Galicians.
The irony is in Belarus and Kazakhstan Russia had scored significant geopolitical wins, only the US foreign policy elite wanted Russia to invade, in fact they could have just left it at recognising the Donbass Republics, which had happened at very little cost.
Once I defended Putin to working class rural Russians who voted communist. Now it is claer.
Putin is and always was a fascist.
I’m seeing some parallels to of all things, the War of 1812. It was ostensibly started because of British impressment of US sailors, among other slights. But the real reason was to grab Canada from Britain. Ironicallly, the war helped Canada develop a distinct national identity where none had existed previously (had the war not taken place, there was a good chance at least Upper Canada would have been absorbed into the US within a decade or two). Likewise, by attacking the whole country, Putin is uniting many Russian-speaking Ukrainians with their ethnic Ukrainian countrymen, and Ukrainian nationalism as a whole will probably come out stronger. Ukraine itself will still probably lose all of the Donbas, but any further territorial designs Russia may have had on Ukraine will not likely come to fruition.
With the exception of merger arbitrage and the occasional shitcoin, I’m not a trader and have a long holding period. I’ve played with shorting a few times, but it’s generally not worth it. If I’m not willing to hold a stock for five years I’m generally not interested. The present situation is a buying opportunity.
That said, the newly announced sanctions do not affect my Russian holdings (Yandex, Qiwi, Magnit).
I avoided going into Sberbank owing to a correct warning by JL that it would be sanctioned.
Moreover these actions have made these countries (and Czechia) even more hostile. Have you seen Zeman’s latest statements? He had been somewhat friendly to Russia before.
This is what I thought would happen.
I suppose the cold rationale is ‘sanctions will be maxed-out regardless of whether just the meme-Republics, the Dnipr, or the whole country is annexed/puppeted’ so it’s been taken to its logical conclusion.
I suppose one key factor in Akarlin’s cheerleading of this, is he didn’t grew up in Russia, so unlike most Russians, he doesn’t have any relatives (by either blood or marriage) or friends living in Ukraine.
I think it is a translation difference, which makes it sound strange.
This ideology is still Russian imperialism, as it is about returning the Russian Empire, if not Soviet borders.
In Russian discourse, “Russian nationalism” is based in the idea of preserving the white, slavic people, against the other nationalities. This ideology is very illegal in Russia, in a really scary way. I mean, as a priority target of the FSB.
But in recent years, there has been some attempt (I guess by the Chechen manager Surkov) to re-engineer the terms “nationalism”, to refer to imperialism.
Putin doesn’t seem to agree with this project to change the name exactly, but he calls nationalism, “caveman nationalism”.
In current Russian discourse, it’s difficult to call yourself an “Russian imperialist”, because of Lenin has demonized the word (as the highest stage of capitalism). You need to call yourself more like monarchist, Tsarist, supporter of Russian Empire, autocracy and people, etc, and perhaps after Surkov, can now call yourself a “nationalist”.
Sure, I think your language can be correct, but it sounds funny if I translate it in the mind. Nationalism is what Putin says he is fighting against.
Putin actually wrote an article to justify the “next stage” last year. He believes the enemy is “radical nationalism” in Ukraine and this is preventing the Ukrainians from understanding they are Russians.
Although in his war speech aim released yesterday is to “de-Nazify” Ukraine. So, the Nazi theme is also important for him.
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By the way, there is a very good interview with (Chechen manager) Surkov last year, which he explains a bit how to “re-engineer” concepts as they like.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/interview-an-overdose-of-freedom-is-lethal-to-a-state-says-former-key-putin-adviser-1.4598641
They are from the KGB, with obsession of control, psychological operations, international relations, etc.
If you look not just as Soviet television, but even 1990s television. It was polite, well speaking, cultural, beautiful music, etc.
But compare with political television as it’s becoming in the last 20 years, and we have every vulgar people shouting at each other in a histrionic way about America and battleships, and how to nuclear bomb Chicago, or invade Baltic States.
It’s like the mentality is now geopolitical “Jerry Springer” show. It’s also with an atmosphere like “Mafia housewives”. And this is at same time as the deindustrialization, low prioritization to national development, low economic diversification (even as we know oil demand will fall in the 2030s).
It’s because the prioritization is not a long-term industrial and infrastructure development, unlike China and unlike the USSR. The country is more a resource you extract from. But the prioritization now is indeed control of the population, international battles, surveillance of population, etc.
This is god’s punishment for you for abandoning the forum.
I’m not saying this is a reliable indicator. But I know personally people who have family that are executives in probably one company you buy. Who knows what their family are doing, but all their life seems constructed on a principle to move money offshore.
So, my natural intuition, or “spider sense” in relation to this market would be take the money.
They are very important companies, with low p/e ratios, etc. But the environment (geopolitical, property rights, etc) for the investment in this business, is not as stable as this business itself might be.
On turning all Ukrainians into Galicians, I’m skeptical. The War of 1812 was brought up, but the US failed to overrun Canada. The Ukrainians are fighting bravely, but it’s a hopeless fight.
This war will be over in three weeks with something like 20,000 Ukrainian military KIA and a few thousand civilian casualties.
We don’t know what Russia’s postwar plans are, but given the maximalist prewar demands and current overwhelming operations we can assume that they include the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
Whether the new state structure is Russian oblasts or a tightly-controlled puppet government (or some mixture), one can expect postwar reconstruction, higher pensions, and a pervasive pro-Russian propaganda. Many Ukrainians will quietly carry on with a sullen attitude, and opportunists will switch to the Russian camp. Hardcore nationalists and EUphiles will emigrate if possible.
Be careful about Zeman, he is bombastic and very savvy. He asks for the moon (‘disconnect SWIFT’) knowing fully well that others will block it – no cost to him.
We have a saying, he who points to the biggest rock, doesn’t plan to lift it. That is Zeman for you.
I’m using the terms in their normally understood sense in the West–I don’t speak Russian. In some sense it’s immaterial anyway.
Geopolitical risk and weak property rights are of course common reasons for the low valuations of Russian equities even aside from the current war. Ignoring Yandex, which does not issue a dividend, capital appreciation is not necessarily required to profit given dividend payments. That leaves geopolitical risk (sanctions) and property rights risk (nationalization and/or oligarchization).
Qiwi for instance has a dividend yield now approaching 20%. For what it’s worth I do not consider Qiwi to be a quality business, and it’s highly likely it has the sort of managers you just described considering that it is registered in Cyprus and its business is providing a poorly functioning money transfer service to Sovoks who cannot figure out mobile banking applications. But Qiwi’s financials are highly attractive.
I’m not heavily exposed to Russian equities and would not recommend others to be so either.
I discontinued participation in this forum due to the switch to Substack, but since Substack’s commenting platform is a joke it appears the action remains here for now.
In times of crisis the agentur is activated and the risk of exposure is ignored. Lubyanka and Olgino issued all hands on deck order.
Even flaky eco vegetarian cyclists (TF) have been redirected to the war propaganda front. And teh deranged alcoholic in between his DT episodes (T) can also chip in for the glory of Russia.
As far as Zeman’s “Russia should be cut off from SWIFT” it it is just the first pebble that will start avalanche running that eventually will bury Russia and Karlin will get his wish of living in Iran.
Boris Johnson said all the right words but his sanctions have too many wholes. Like for example not seizing bank accounts fo Russian citizens but only limiting the amount they can hold. And not going after the children of oligarchs and the rich who live the UK.
Precisely. In an existential fight never go for half-measures or hold back. There is no gain in it. The dynamic will play itself out: Kiev cannot win, Russia cannot go half-way, not everyone can run away, and West will come back and talk to Russia. All else are details, how many die defending or attacking, what blows up, who escapes and who doesn’t.
Many are offended by the Russia’s assertiveness. For 15 years they have been predicting Russia’s imminent collapse and it looks stronger today than in 2015 or 2010. So we get more predictions of collapse. I understand the discomfort, most people prefer nothing to something, easy cliches to thoughts, and there are losers in this (like AP, Mr Hack), it is more comfortable to go back to nothing. But we can’t.
The idea that the West is strong enough to turn Ukraine into a well-armed anti-Russia bulwark is dying in front of our eyes. Maybe it was premature, maybe badly executed, maybe the stars were not aligned. I think it was an unnecessary over-reach from its inception, a stupid idea of stupid people who like to break out maps after dinner and forever regret that 1941 didn’t have a warmer winter.
But you disappoint me. I can see the byzantine Armenian mind in play – stay on good terms with all powerful people, don’t push your luck. And Aliev was with Kremlin as this was starting. Coincidence?
Putin, Gazprom and Rosneft approve this message. Thank you, A123.
If this lasts more than two weeks and there are significant Russian casualties (although the figures will be hidden – even worse) Putin will be toast. The NLAWs and Javelins appear to be working. Ukraine doesn;t have enough to destroy the Russian tank fleet but the point of the blitzkreig could be blunted. How much effective training was done?
Note: I am no longer a Putin apologist and quite a lot of Russians support him although not all.
Any news about Antonov airport in Hostomel? At night when the air support is much less effective I would think that Ukrainian troops should have much better chance to overwhelm and mop up Russian troops who were dropped there by 20 or so helicopters.
Why does your diatribe read like a version a familiar fairy-tale: and the mad king yelled ‘kill them all, don’t spare the children, get them all, burn them.
None of that will happen. And what will happen will not matter. The West blinked because they have no choice: they have no muscle on the ground. Banning shopping, taking money from people’s accounts, screaming incoherently that these are “sanctions from hell”, that they will bury Russia, all of that are symptoms of weakness.
There are plenty of Western assets in Russia, BP get 25% of its profits from Russia paying some nice dividends to the British pensioners. What they take, the other side can also take – it is a wash. Punishing spoiled oligarch kids is a wet dream for 99% of Russians – BoJo should hound them, put them in prisons, make them pick strawberries like the poor Poles. Most of Russia and most of humanity, would celebrate. Not going to happen, it would scare the Western oligarchs, you know: the precedent.
Get over you anger grandpa. You have waited for your revenge on the damn Russkies who dared to stop you in WWII, decades of hatred. I don’t see it this time, they will easily win. They are on their home territory.
?
I know someone from very upper class background, that are very lucky people 0,01% people, who is writing on their page now they wish were another nationality because of this shame of this killing of the Ukrainians.
You know being associated with Chekistan, is not something people even outside of the bars are necessarily wanting, even those in some way beneficiary of the prisoners’ labor. It’s a dystopian horror show but beyond us.
Yes and just like those 2 soldiers
A number of Russian soldiers will look like this
They have their world…in there in Russia…instead Russians want to bring it into ours and turn our world into theirs
…
Sure, some of that is valid criticism.
But in my defense, I should emphasize that unlike most of the people on this thread, I hadn’t really been paying any attention to the issue. Aside from looking at my morning newspapers, I doubt I was spending even 5% of my time on the matter, and I certainly wasn’t watching RT or repeating its arguments. Indeed, with the exception of the one or two comments on this blog, I don’t think I’d said a word about the situation in any website comment.
Moreover, many perhaps most of the Karlin commenters, who had been following the situation far more closely, seemed to agree with me, so my opinion wasn’t so totally ridiculous.
Meanwhile, most of the MSM people yelling about a looming Russian invasion had been the same people who’d previously spent years peddling the Russiagate nonsense, while the more sensible observers I checked with were very skeptical of any large invasion. So after various supposed D-Days came and went, I wrongly concluded it was all just more American propaganda.
Also, Karlin’s main argument had been that Putin’s goal was to conquer Ukraine and “reintegrate” it into Russia, and that’s part of what I described as “total lunacy.” But at this point, it’s still not at all clear that will actually happen. My impression is the Russians have mostly been using their stand-off weapons to destroy Ukraine’s military capabilities, which is something quite different.
One very applicable lesson is the danger of Crying Wolf once too often. Another lesson, emphasized by Diana Johnstone’s excellent column this morning on the dangers of the last seven or eight years of “Bear Baiting”…
I didn’t know you were a gigantic fan of Not-The-President Biden. Your support for the current, illegitimate regime in the U.S. is duly noted.
Thank you, Utu.
PEACE 😇
All the fear, death, and devastation of war reduced to a meme word.
That seems excessively callous for even the most ardent Putin supporter.
That was a minor subsection of four main points, and prefaced as “something more in the realm of speculation as opposed to something that Putin definitely thinks.”
Pigs are innocent. Banderites are not.
Yes, the Ukrainians finally captured it (info on Ukrainian jets is surprising).
These are some of the regular Ukrainian boys who helped defeat the elite Russian paratroopers:
The Russians might try another operation or they will have to fight their way in from the North. Ukrainians are expecting heavy bombardment tonight in Kiev.
Zelensky has surprised me. He is staying in Kiev with his family. This “clown” is showing himself as presidential and a welcome contrast to the hissing, murderous Rat King in the Kremlin.
About Snake Island:
May those heroes rest in peace.
So far, the Ukrainians are acting as I predicted. They have given up the flat southern Ukrainian countryside but have fought in the northern forests and in the approaches to cities. No mass desertions yet. President and most of the government haven’t run away at first opportunity.
Even if Russia ultimately prevails in this war, it will be like the loss of Galicia in 1919 to Poland for Western Ukrainians, or that lost battle to the Turks by the Serbs. Forget about building some unified Russian nation from these people, they will remember.
Fucking Uruk Hai.
“illegitimate regime in the U.S.” – Usually I do not read you except the pictures you attach that I can’t avoid to see. But I was wondering which archipelago of lunacy and disinformation were you coming from and to whom it may appeal. Clearly there is an element of Qanonism and Breitbartism or in another word pure rightodism but most of all in general sense it is some form of nihilism. Unless I have missed something there was no single post by you that would be in some way affirmative and constructive. You feed on negativity and negativity you spout. Basically you are amoral degenerate form of what once used to be a human form.
So let’s speculate what is your provenience and who are your handlers. Are you American? Possibly on paper. But your handlers belong to Tel Aviv – Lubyanka axis. What you dish out is crude and primitive mishmash of what one would expect from the worst Soviet and Israeli primitivism.
As I’ve said before on here, almost no one would claim that the English and the Irish or Scots are brother nations, usually quite the contrary in fact, despite all being English speaking, so using the same logic I’m not quite sure why Russians have delusions that most Ukrainians feel any strong sense of kinship with them.
Hack’s squeeze?
https://www.eurasiareview.com/23022022-motivating-factors-behind-russias-recent-independence-recognition-oped/#comment-947796
It seems that they were deployed to hunt the perpetrators of the Odessa massacre. Putin dedicated a paragraph of his speech to this event and declared that the perpetrators will be punished.
Lol. Wasn’t a few years ago, I was saying more in this direction, and everyone was arguing against me and ignores my commentary.
It’s true, because Israel is realpolitik, more than principle, basis for diplomacy. Even more, they are allies with Aliev (dictator) Azerbaijan.
Israel is a democracy, and benefits from this situation, but they are not caring about political science in other countries.
Israel is a US and Ukraine ally, but they have been almost completely useless as the ally for Ukraine and probably destroy their reputation in many circles. Israel has been relatively silenced on this Ukraine-Russia conflict, even despite Ukraine love for them.
–
Kremlin uses the sugar water and whip. So with the sugar water, Putin is injecting money into Yad Vashem today.
This is how they diplomacy in Israel. They don’t want to too direct so they use indirect state. (E.g. same businessman who also bought the land around the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv).
As a western Russophile myself, I can say that I was not at all shocked. Maybe pleasantly surprised that Russia has decided to reassert itself, after years of restraint gave the impression that Russia had resigned itself to being chipped away and consumed by the west. No shock though.
Now Russia needs to remove western tech.
No disinformation here. Only accuracy & truth. Everyone knows that vote fraud & primer election crimes are the only reason why Not-The-President Biden illegally occupies by the White House.
I have a positive and hopeful track record on the ability of MAGA to restore and rebuild America. This is in spite of a great deal of negativity from #NeverTrump extremists.
To date, I concede that I have been 100% negative about illegitimate DNC rule. However this is because, so far, they have been 100% wrong. If the current, fake U.S. regime ever manages to do something correctly, I will give it appropriate credit. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut.
You were offended by legitimate criticism of Not-The-President Biden’s incompetence. One has to speculate that your handlers are from the Davos WEF. I sense in you the morality & political acumen of Ilhan Omar.
How is your lunatic policy of “Defund the Police” working out for you?
PEACE 😇
If I’m not mistaken, I think it was more commentary on the bizzare constellation that make up A123’s “views” (if ‘he’ is indeed is a real person, I’m not so sure) than utu’s belief that any Russian-Israeli axis actually exists.
I personally think it’s more simply Israel and Russia have agreed to a quid-pro-quo in Syra and the like, rather than any alignment of interests at all. Israel has historically only ever respected blunt force, and Russia has demonstrated it’s willingness to exercise it in the region, hence Israel gives Russia a modicum of respect denied to it’s neighbors generally.
No disinformation here. Only accuracy & truth. Everyone knows that vote fraud & other election crimes are the only reason why Not-The-President Biden illegally occupies by the White House.
I have a positive and hopeful track record on the ability of MAGA to restore and rebuild America. This is in spite of a great deal of negativity from #NeverTrump extremists who post here.
To date, I concede that I have been 100% negative about illegitimate DNC rule. However this is because, so far, they have been 100% wrong. If the current, fake U.S. regime ever manages to do something correctly, I will give it appropriate credit. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut.
PEACE 😇
My previous position was 99% that China will wait about ten years.
Invasion of Taiwan still seems quite unlikely, yet there are all sorts of potential opportunity gains, presented by Russia’s actions in Ukraine, that may change some of the math, depending on the course of near future events.
Unofficially, the US already has double digit inflation. The highest in forty years. Oil is $100/barrel. Honestly, I don’t think it has the economic capacity, to impose harsh sanctions on both Russia and China. Though, maybe, it is in a spiral and things will just be worse in ten years.
But there are other perishable opportunities. How much fertilizer production Russia currently controls. Chinese food stockpiles are at a historic high. Believe they currently still control rare earth production. At present, Russia seems to be locked into a position of backing China.
Biden has shown that he is not inclined to fight, meaning it would probably be a straight fight with Taiwan. A Taiwan that has potentially seen regime change in Ukraine or an army get defeated, and might be more willing to surrender.
Lol I know. I’m just surprised of Utu to know about that topic suddenly which I used to write about in this forum years ago.
I didn’t try the Turing test but I think A123 is real person. Firstly, “bots” would surely not call themselves “A123”.
Also he or she copies the “Peace” signature from Talha. They copied this from Talha, which “bots” probably would be copying Talha.
They are not anti-Ukraine. But they disliked Poroshenko because they thought they areconnected to Soros. https://www.unz.com/tsaker/uber-loser-poroshenko-goes-full-saakashvili/?showcomments#comment-2647959
And they do not like Biden’s connection to Ukraine.
https://www.unz.com/chopkins/the-united-states-of-fascism-hysteria/#comment-3322000
It’s only about American domestic politics. He doesn’t seem to write about anything related to Russia or Ukraine conflict. His knowledge seems like from being in Unz Review.
My conclusion is that A123 is a “Trumpist”.
“why Russians have delusions that most Ukrainians feel any strong sense of kinship with them” – Good question but very simple answer. Russians are ‘Asiatics’ with the fetish for blunt force and naked power – actually they are incapable imagining functioning relations without it – who at the same time are sentimental like children. They believe their own fables about their magnanimity and sacrifice for others so their anger and vengeance against those who spurned their advances immediately falls back on the naked power, accusations of ingratitude, threats and in the best scenario of muscle flexing – we have ultimate weapon that will burry you – or in the worst case of pacification, killing spree and genocide. Russians create their own reality by killing those who do not like them and shutting up those who may speak about it.
Look at comments by Dmitri. He wants to be a good guy to the point of ingratiating himself to what is perceived as acceptable and good in the West. But at the same time he can’t shed off his fascination with the brutal power of Mother Russia who is about to avenge all the slights it absorbed in last 30 or so years. One could find him somewhere among pathetic and somewhat sympathetic Gogol’s characters. Btw, do you know how Gogol ended up? Why did he stop writing? He died relatively young burning his manuscripts and accusing devil that lead him on the erroneous path of criticizing Russian character. Will Dmitri’s Polish girlfriend save his mind as Sonya Marmeladova kind of saved Raskolnikov’s soul or is Russian mind beyond being salvageable?
What makes you unsure?
I know that I will be vindicated by history. However to date, I am the only person stating unequivocally that George IslamoSoros is a Muslim. His 100% track record against Christians and Palestinian Jews is overwhelming, though indirect, proof.
PEACE 😇
Military considerations involve topology (Carpathians) and distance to Moscow.
Have you read Anthony de Custine’s 1843 classic “Letters from Russia”? The past 2 days has me thinking I should re-read it again.
.
Although that’s a somewhat unkind assessment it’s approaching the truth, and as an Armenian emigre I do sort of understand the mentality you’re talking about, 2nd or 3rd hand at least.
Reading what and how you have just written it occurred to me that you can be Wally who from doing the CODOH Holocaust denial schtick which arguable could have been Zionist psy-op (heavily used and endorsed by Ron Unz at the earlier phase of TUR) was repurposed to MAGA, libertarian, Breitbart, Q-anon schtick. I think some psycho-linguistic analysis software would point to very similar make up on several levels of Wally and A123. The child like naive libertarianism of Wally and A123 is the greatest give away.
Well Israel refused to sell us Iron Dome tech and drones
And the drones part it instead sells to Russia so they can use vs us
Make of that what you will
Nabokov paints quite a charming picture of the man’s life in his monograph on Gogol, particularly his unfortunate end, attempting (and failing, miserably) to fit the extreme grotesqueries of ‘Dead Souls’ into a sort of bizzare moral fable, I particularly recall his quotation of the great writer’s priest: “Renounce Pushkin! He was a sinner and pagan”.
Or how Russian autocracy (and its sycophants) successively broke Dostoevsky, Goncharov and Gorky. With stronger men like Lermontov, Pushkin, Chekhov and Tolstoy, state power met an immovable object and they knowingly steered themselves to their own tragic demise.
Others couldn’t compromise, but with pleasure-seeking personalities and no desire for martyrdom, just left, like Herzen, Bunin, Dovlatov, Nabokov and Prokofiev, though Prokoviev and Turgenev loved their country too much and couldn’t live their whole lives in exile.
Sad!
Yes, I have read de Custine but long time ago and consciously I do not remember anything now. But more recently I have read
Russia as a Space of Hope: Nineteenth-century French Challenges to the Liberal Image of Russia by Ezequiel Adamovsky
https://library.fes.de/libalt/journals/swetsfulltext/18641599.pdf
in search for answer why the rightoids over the centuries are being seduced by Russia as their hope for salvation while trying to explain Putin fanboys at for example recent Sailer posts on Ukraine or Unz’s predilection for Russia propaganda. The question of purposeful operations by Okhrana, Cheka, NKVD, KGB and in more recent years FSB of fostering and nourishing ‘conservative’ cells in other countries also should be looked at. NKVD and KGB were setting up ‘conservative’ think tanks and cells in the West and Soviet Block countries. Giving Ron Unz benefit of doubt he might be unwitting subject of such an operation.
Amusingly enough, someone else just left a parallel comment that seems somewhat more plausible:
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/from-the-black-sea-to-the-east-med-dont-poke-the-russian-bear/#comment-5194839
While I can’t say whether the theory is true, I suppose it might be…
Even with very little information they receive which is filtered by the authorities, most people in Russia are shocked by this, from what I hear today. And outside Russia, it just reminds everyone of the good life choices they have enjoyed, to reduce ties with the postsoviet space.
I was more emotionally prepared about how disgusting this would be, in one reason because I was watching the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in October 2020.
It’s pretty clear what kind of dystopia we can prepare in the postsoviet space. In days like now, you could feel jealous even for people who come from Latin America.
Meanwhile for years, people here have been arguing about African Americans and conspiracies, and I’m posting about the importance of transparency, having a horizontal rather than vertical of power, and the danger of surveillance, etc.
Talking about liberal concepts, is not an attempt to be perceived acceptable in the West. It’s more that you can sometimes perhaps understand more about their origins when you saw the “top-down” government directly.
I’m explaining about the power of the equipment I’m posting for days here, because we were watching in slowmotion the preparation for this killing.
It’s like watching people setting up for weeks, all the mechanical instruments for the massacre. We have no influence for the events, but there’s no benefit to avoid saying what this equipment was going to do.
If they are introducing the world’s most powerful equipment then say this.
Here was my literary position.
It looks like Mother Russia is about to avenge all the slights it absorbed in last three centuries. Khazarstan was at the center of the ‘slights’. What to make of Putin’s promise to “de-communize Ukraine for real”?
It was intended as a temporary handle. I did not realize that the UR site rules make name changing difficult. At this point, there is no going back.
It is a genuine expression of Christian peaceful intent. It is also a counter to certain violent Muslim posters who attempt to misrepresent violent Jihad as “peace” when it is obviously “war”.
I am certainly an American. I do not claim to have deep insight into Russia or Ukraine. The fact that Not-The-President Biden’s family took bribes from Ukraine certainly makes me more sympathetic to Russia.
The whole Ukraine–Russia fight has the feel of a mistake. I do not think that Putin really wanted this war. The loss on life on both sides is tragic, and should have been avoidable.
MAGA is much larger that than Trump, so Trumpist does not really fit. You could try MAGA-ist though that is a bit unwieldy. I would suggest “Christian Populist”. That seems to work best within the limitations imposed by the English language.
___________________________________________________
@utu
As a Christian Populist, I oppose the child like naivety of libertarianism. Libertarianism is very similar to pure form Communism. They sound OK as theory, but can only work if everyone else thinks the same way. Highly impractical.
In the real world, Libertarianism = Unilateral Disarmament. Resisting CCP exploitation requires non-libertarian national cohesiveness. Libertarians running MegaCorporations are happy joining overseas Elites to reap short term personal gains.
PEACE 😇
Nowadays, being a peasant is a personal choice. No one in Russia can hide behind “Not my President!” anymore. The “peasants” voted those fascists into power; therefore, they will be found guilty as charged.
The first name of the Marquis de Custine was ‘Astolphe-Louis-Léonor, Marquis de Custine (18 March 1790 – 25 September 1857)’.
His ”La Russie en 1839” was a first salvo in the ‘enlightened West’ propaganda war against Russia.
I’m not sure I have to explain, that even 1996 “election” was fake.
And what do you think happens in anti-government protests. This is called “top-down” government.
And people going to these protests are already “crazy”, as they will be monitored by the authorities now all their life.
Saying “crazy”, I mean, it’s actually not a good idea for a person, as you cannot change anything in such a system, except adding costs to yourself.
How can a society avoid such situations? Revolution can often create an even worse result, as so many times before in history. It is not easy to see how, but there will have to be a boring, careful work for transparency of information, oversight of politicians, independence of a legal system, etc.
I feel sorry for all those decent people trapped in this totalitarian nightmare. But, on the other hand, the Russian society is still in shackles, and many are clutching hopelessly to the chimeras of communism and cherish bizarre chauvinistic ideas. Even more bizarre look those young people who bring flowers to Stalin’s memorial. Can you imagine the German people celebrating their NS leaders in today’s Germany? The Russian communist criminals are still heavily represented in the Duma and thus influence the foreign and domestic policy. In the land of GULAG death camps Kolyma Stalin’s monuments are found everywhere. The Russian people should stop looking for excuses for their own misery and make a thorough overhaul of makes a country great and what doesn’t.
Precise quotes to the table.
This is necessary, given your record of dissimulation that I have chronicled not once here.
Actually I’ll do it for you:
Substack
It is possible we see the occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya, forming a corridor to Transnistria; possibly Kiev and the central regions up to the Soviet borders before World War II; but perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia.
“Novorossiya: 70%” = “probably” in the original prediction
As usual, you’re a liar.
I should also mention that I’ve been a little friendly with John Mearsheimer for about a decade, and he’d been closely following the Russia/Ukraine situation. So I dropped him a note last week, and he was just as extremely skeptical of a possible Russian invasion as I was, which strongly solidified my own opinion. I very much doubt that Prof. Mearsheimer is a Russian stooge or gets his talking-points from RT.
I was just watching his recent Russia/Ukraine video presentation to University of Cambridge students from last week, which I’d highly recommend. I’d also highly recommend his lecture from six years ago, which has recently accumulated an astonishing 7.6 million(!) views:
Although I’d strongly differ with him about China, I’d probably agree with about 95% of his positions on the Russia/Ukraine situation.
No, my main argument was that the Russians would attack Ukraine including the capture of Kiev and quite soon.
Wide-ranging annexations is something I am convinced will happen (possibly not directly but through various convoluted operations, though perhaps not, relations with the West are dead for a decade either way so there’s no particular to even respect appearances).
While we’re on the topic of predictive accuracy, I will note that there was no false flag terrorist attack as called for by unboxing video aficionado Dmitry.
Perhaps it is appropriate to treat his various other claims about Russian realities with the requisite amount of skepticism.
Nah. I don’t see it. Wally was way too shrill and petulant to be A123. Wally was also absurdly myopic.
A123 is more diverse in talking points (though they revolve around many consistent MAGA type themes).
To those who think that A123 is a bot, I would say no. His tone is quite consistent and the time effort and time intensive (pics and funnies) content of the posting far exceeds what would be profitable for a bot to spend effort on. Unless of course, convincing Iffen and YellowfaceAnon to accept Trumpism is the critical pivot point for some Earth shattering political revolution in the works.
Come on Iffen, once you accept Trump as your personal savior, it opens the way for the Orange One to descend on clouds of glory!
Russians lied and claimed they had taken out all of Ukraine’s air defenses. In reality:
Karlin was right about Russia’s actions but he was too wishful about Ukraine’s will and ability to resist.
So Ukraine’s identity will also be based on virtue signaling & importing Indians?
Perhaps, this is why Thulean Friend supports Putin.
Regarding JM:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/08/21/getting-real-with-the-us-foreign-policy-establishment-realists/
Something large was certainly intercepted with a lot of fuel, but perhaps not by Ukie air defense.
Looks like you are right, however some missiles were also brought down so Ukraine’s air defenses appear to still exist:
Well, Anatoly, the title of your column was “Regathering of the Russian Lands” with the subtitle “The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite,” and your first sentence included the phrase “a speed run towards Russian Empire 2.0.” Given all of that, I think it was reasonable for me to consider the “reintegration” of Ukraine as one of your main themes.
The world is full of terror, evil and ugliness. It always has been, some of you have just been more insulated to it. But it still is there, and if anything, it ferments and grows in strength because of those who just blindly ignore it, or worse, who indulge it.
Far worse, I think, than to remark on “habbenings.”
Day 1 casualties:
Ukrainian: 137 mixed military and civilian
Russian: 800 military
But who’s counting?
BTW, I’ve read somewhere that it was going to be a cakewalk for Russia. These can’t be numbers that brings the kremlins any joy. Less joy for all 937 families. Lots and lots of demonstrations by Russians against the war in scores of Russian cities met with quick reprisals by the loyal Putlerite police. One can only imagine how folks will react if these sorts of numbers continue….
Wonderful. We should all work towards sustaining this natural state of terror, evil and ugliness. You can feel all of the raw dark energy by attending some of the funerals by the boys who’ll be soon be returning home to their families in body bags to get a full dose of reality.
What makes you think that I haven’t been in such situations? What makes you think that on some level, I never escape reliving it?
Perhaps it’ll motivate people to actually do something.
Let me at that metro train station!!!
Don’t worry about those nukes at the border!!!
Are you a zionist anon with a fake russian name? You don’t read stupid, so you got be a zionist.
So today the demons will try to break through onto Kiev with mass tank columns
Its going to be tough
Turgenev lived a large part of his life, by his choice (he was never ‘exiled’) either in Baden-Baden or in Paris where he died. His remains have been brought back to Russia and buried in St. Petersburg.
My prediction was China getting Taiwan if Russia ever moves on Ukraine. I wonder if this prediction will ever pan out by the end of this year.
If that’s the case, then I applaud you for trying to do something positive. It’s just that I haven’t really heard you come out against this ugly Russian incursion into Ukraine. For some reason I conflate you with Karlin who seems to be getting his jollies watching this latest chapter of “brotherly triunism” on the march in its full ugly pageantry.
Very harsh take on Russian performance so far, if you read full conversation (I am no expert on military science, so I can’t judge):
Related, some destroyed Russian forces in Kherson, RIP (shows some casualties):
There cannot be an alliance between Hungary and any of its neighbors. It’s similar to their cousins, the Turks, whose country was similarly trimmed down.
I am not an imbecile, so I cannot get sold on the dreamy vision of Hungarian or Turkish soldiers dying in defense of Romania.
Therefore, NATO is a make-belief alliance, which persists merely because it hasn’t been challenged. IRL, it is as meaningful as the Rio Pact. It gets some hysterical screeching whenever it suits USG, so that they can push on their home audience the appearance of an international agreement. But it comes to complete complete silence when the US will betray an Argentina or a Turkey.
Russians have entered outer Kiev, while Ukrainians have managed to bomb a Russian airfield:
Rus making quick progress given the limited numbers involved, despite more resistance.
Sanctions are a nothing.
Final settlement looking good.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraines-hybrid-war-is-mutating/
Gamble is just about working.
My long term holdings of Polymetal and Petropavlovsk are motoring up today, great buying opportunity.
Too early takes, based only on day 1, when those were just primary RF columns attacking, the main bulk will be still following. But also it is needed to have in mind RF is fighting a country whose political leadership up till the last minute didn’t believe it will be invasion on all fronts at once, did not mobilize and expected full blown attack only in LDNR.
Was going to post this, and ask same question.
Skeptical because American intelligence,
My uninformed take is that they rushed aerial bombardment because of international climate.
The air mobile advances felt very rushed as well ie the VDV to Kiev airport.
Shallow thrusts while awaiting mass. Although I understand why they did it. They want to keep casualties low, and rely on speed of advance for shock.
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
https://mobile.twitter.com/jon_d_conqueroo/status/1497076740933525507
One of the responses to that thread AP posted.
Enough said,
Fkn Amerimutt pindos.
By belittling people who express concern for it? Sure thing, champ.
I’d like to say your claptrap is just a product of the social media age, but it’s rather obvious you get off on posturing as the realest dude in the room.
Some are fighting, while some others have laid down their arms.
Fuhrer comment on that thread: Respect to all heroes.
Military hardware isn’t substantially better since the 80s only software is.
US famously ranout of cruise missiles over Iraq after expending some 1100.
Why wouldn’t Russia use unguided munitions with rudimentary targetting ala worse version JDAM?
ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
You’re a moron, but we knew that already.
He’s doing damage control, already began on Twitter and trying to continue it here. Karlin doesn’t like to admit when he got something wrong, so he changes his predictions after the fact and then pretends nothing changed. When it gets pointed out, he gets amusingly angry.
Endgame is upon us.
The Kiev junta is encouraging its civilians to throw molotov cocktails and have removed any age restrictions, essentially allowing child soldiers. They have lost any last shred of moral credibility. Zelensky should immediately end hostilities instead of sacrificing the youth of Ukraine in a doomed war.
Let negotiations begin. This entire war was an avoidable tragedy to begin with.
The father of Blitzkrieg, JFC Fuller, would be admiring the Russian attack.
It will be fighting as predicted by AP. Ukrainian forces counterattacked to absorb the Gostamel bridgehead but heavy fight still goes on. Ukrainian forces claim the will launch another counterattack there.
Ukrainians soldiers fight, although hope is steadily vanishing. Brave people.
Russians in central Kiev unexpectedly quickly capturing Ukrainian leadership might change things though?
convincing Iffen and YellowfaceAnon to accept Trumpism
Read what I write, not what someone writes about me. I voted for Trump both times, intend to vote for him again in 2024, and will encourage anyone inclined to listen to me to vote for him as well. Trump is a Hail Mary for the American people, and like most Hail Marys will likely fail.
An Israeli propaganda bot is the only thing that make sense to me.
It mostly writes gibberish. It doesn’t understand much about American politics. For example, it does not know what a never-Trumper is. Or if it does, it wishes to obfuscate or discredit the term.
Put up or get banned. You have 24 hours.
Did you ever tell the commenters here whether you would be going back to participate in the brave defense of the motherland?
“Contradictory” phenomena. Lots of intact Ukrainian units putting up fierce resistance on various fronts. Russians sending more units into Belarus suggests that they have had many more casualties than expected. Faint possibility of eventual defeat due to attrition?
On the other hand, lightning strike into an unprepared Kiev city could lead to quick capture of president and leadership (who bravely stayed rather than fled to Switzerland or New York).
Future course uncertain. How strongly will the intact forces resist if the president issues a surrender under duress? Russians still seem to be taking heavy casualties in Chernihiv, Donbas, Kharkiv. How many Ukrainians will continue to fight as struggle turns into guerilla war and insurgency phase? What about western Ukraine?
Zelensky has not been exclusively in his bunker today:
btw, according to the official propaganda line RF is doing “denazification” of a country …where current president of Jewish descent got around 70% of vote in last election.
Assessment from an observer about the Blitzkrieg so far:
“There are too many oddities produced by the Russians to not to think that there is some disturbance in the force.
They’re not even trying to make things difficult for enemy intelligence, they’ve made a target out of more than a convoy. E.g. the very first twitter post about the capture of Kharkov had a picture of them standing at the intersection. Now, the people in the picture are unlikely to be alive anymore, that’s where the picture of the popped turreted T-80BVM was taken.
They treat the civilians as complete friends, who immediately drop info (close up videos), and sure enough they shoot.
They drive through settlements with engineer and other limited but important support sub-units, from under whom the local resistance shoots out the tire (more than one such video has come to mind). I don’t know how dozens of unfired but abandoned crawlers are rounded up, but the residents are happy to steal them apart.
They don’t bomb the crash landed Kamov, let the western sweepers have it all.
They get airborne units into hostile depths without MANPAD, combat support, other fire support.
They send in single helicopters over the cities. Major helicopter incursions are not supported by fighters.
They move mechanized columns in places where they should have broken up long ago, with no air cover, no escort, hit with forward facing turrets. Instead of breakthrough speed (50-75km/h) they crawl, of course they are easy to be shot at.
Zero hour strikes were grossly underscaled, with only a few of the known large ammunition dumps attacked.”
Poroshenko joining the resistance:
Rather different from Russian expectations.
Atm wouldn’t even surprised they somewhat really do believe their own propaganda about the civilian population being oppressed by Nazi dictatorship in Ukraine. Even if without a doubt there is a relatively significant subset of population who is completely pro-RF there (opposition block voters mostly), but it is quite far from any majority.
I’ve been impressed by Ukrainian courage and resolve so far. Perhaps resistance will slacken after Kiev falls, but right now the Ukrainians merit the world’s respect and admiration.
Zelensky staying in Kiev with his family.
The martyrs of Snake Island dying to the last man after issuing a crude response to a Russian demand of surrender which brings to mind similar epics of the Second World War.
The successful fight to retake Antonov airport from the elite VDV.
Ukrainians of all stripes answering the call to service and doing what they can with what they have where they are.
Their resistance is surely doomed, but they will provide epics for future generations of APs and Mr. Hacks.
The remark wasn’t meant to be any actual reflection on your views. It was just a little humor on how worked up A123 gets about allegedly “Islamo SJW anti-Trump yahoos” such as yourself, undermining the glorious ascendancy of Trumpism.
Point being, that if A123 was a bot he wouldn’t waste time on folks here. Bad energy expended to results ratio.
Aren’t you being a bit defensive? That quote from Ron looks kinda damning – assuming it’s not taken out of context (cbf checking) – so are you going to threaten him with a ban too?
Anyway, TF can be rather trollish, especially when responding to you, so I don’t think your reputation among readers here as a generally sound analyst is under any real threat by his comments.
As far as accuracy of predictions goes, who cares? If one were to treat your “percentages” quantitatively, every one of them could fail to materialize and yet they would not necessarily be “wrong,” just as rolling a 5 would not disprove the statement that there is 67% chance of rolling a 1, 2, 3 or 4. Imo, precisely such randomness factors attach to human affairs, all the way down to the assessment of which antecedents are even present.
I don’t know.
I have a big contempt toward Banderite battalions that want to mimic WW-II SS paramilitary gangs but I recognize the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers that are fighting against all odds.
According to AK, Russian Forces started to use thermobaric fire near Kharkov. This would indicate unexpected resistance.
Anyway they will end, likely, leveled. The flux of fire is really massive.
That’s quite underrated and important nuance, cause those current fighters, who will be future heroes, are way more marketable both domestically and in the world than WWII Ukrainians who are tarnished by such significant negative elements in their history like Nazi collaborationism and ethnic cleansing.
Ron only demonstrated he apparently didn’t read past the title and first paragraph, which is fine. Apparently a problem you have as well.
Thulean Friend has made what I demonstrated to be specifically false claims and pointedly refused to engage with them, preferring instead to “subtweet” me by Agreeing with Ron.
No doubt.
The same, however, is true of the Russian side.
Instead of the increasingly stale GPW victory cult in which Russians fought for a demonic Georgian Bolshevik who engineered a postwar famine, Russians will now have the Putin blitzkrieg against the “Empire of Lies” and the regathering of Russian lands to celebrate.
(from AK’s Substack)
U[on becoming president, Zelensky backed off from what he campaigned on while sucking up to Banderite types. Theron his popularity rapidly declined
Breaking News
Yes, I’m the problem, not people who literally are throwing lives into the grinder while hiding in bunkers.
https://fxtwitter.com/geromanat/status/1497208309517991937?s=21
We have read what you wrote. Those words led to my accurate, fact based response. Here are some simple questions:
-1- How do your #NeverTrump lies about his 1st term “encourage” anyone to vote for him?
-2- Why do you refuse to admit the Truth about Trump’s successes against overwhelming odds?
-3- Why do you reject & intentionally misrepresent the highly effective communication phrase #LetsGoBrandon? It is, as a matter of objective fact, neither vulgar nor obscene.
Based on your assertions you are either:
• Irrational, demanding the obviously impossible
• A plant intentionally trying to undermine the MAGA movement
It is pretty clear that you fear my accuracy. You revealed your lack of intelligence by trying to mislabel me as a “Low-IQ”. You self identified as a “Yahoo” when you tried to brand me as such and failed.
If you really want to support MAGA, there is one easy step you can take…. Here it is… — Stop Lying about Trump! —
It would also help if you show contrition and apologize for your prior, obviously incorrect statements.
#LetsGoBrandon 😇
As someone who was blindsided by the attack precisely because I assumed the warnings were crying wolf, the lesson I’m taking from this is to remind myself that the boy didn’t invent wolves – wolves actually existed, and a wolf eventually did come.
Russia undoubtedly has security concerns regarding NATO expansion, but unless they plan on taking over all of Eurasia, they’re going to have borders with a “hostile anti-Russian alliance” somewhere, so there’s more for westerners to think about than a safe little “poking the bear” morality tale.
Although I resent Ukraine for trying to get the west involved in its mess (obviously they found plenty of eager participants), I do pity them for what they’re now facing. I hope the fighting is over quickly, in order to limit the suffering. (Although if they can hold out and even “win,” that would be pretty legendary.)
Hungarians would be willing to fight for their other Visegrád 4 neighbors. Christians support fellow Christians. It is hard to envision Hungarians being willing to die for anti-Christian Germany.
The core of the NATO deal is nuclear deterrence, making the three key members — U.S., UK, and France. There is no conventional arms solution to protecting the Baltic states. Unlike Ukraine, those would be an ~24 hour rollover. They would fall before any help could possibly arrive.
This makes Turkey’s membership dubious, at best. Would the Big 3 use nukes to protect Erdogan from Russia? If Putin wants Turkey, he can have it.
PEACE 😇
I wasn’t aware of this, but it doesn’t shock me in the slightest that iffen would bitch about the “vulgarity” of Brandon. (And you are quite right to suspect that it’s its effectiveness rather than its vulgarity that is his real concern.)
But if he’s sincere, maybe he should open his eyes and consider the absolute scum that MAGA is up against (antifa, BLM and the like). If the days of gentlemanly political campaigning are a fading memory, it is hardly MAGA’s fault.
This is not a time to bitch out and return to the failed ways of Cuckservative Inc. It is a time to fight fire with fire. It is a time to Make MAGA Great Again.
If it works, use it.
Can Sleepy Joe survive two humiliations like Afghanistan and Ukraine in a few months? I bet the Republicans will overwhelm the two chambers in the current year elections.
Except, of course, that is not what I am advocating.
In fact, the key point I have had to repeat many, many, many times is — As a single individual there were sharp limits to what President Trump could deliver in his 1st term.
I am a supporter of Christian Populism, which in the U.S. is known as MAGA. This is much larger and more enduring that “Trumpism”. A revival of Judeo-Christian values is the path to permanently ending the dominance of SJW Globalism.
As long as Trump is the leader of the U.S. MAGA movement, lying about Trump is an obvious attempt to damage Christian Populism:
— One expects the Fake Stream Media to lie. They have no credibility and thus, their lies have no impact.
— Deceivers trying to operate from the inside Christian Populism present a genuine threat. Such liars, like Iffen, have to be hammered down thoroughly and promptly.
So, no “Trumpism” here. My defense is of the much larger movement. Christian Populism will continue long after both Trump and myself have shuffled off this moral coil.
PEACE 😇
Nazis didn’t just kill the Jews. But I think you know that, you are just obfuscating for low IQ people.
Nazis were essentially about killing and displacing the eastern Slavs and all who they considered ‘unter-menschen‘. So your brain-dead analogy makes no sense. Zelensky got 70% running on a “peace” platform. Since he went for a war, how many of those 70% are still with him?
We can discuss how Nazi-like the current Ukraine is (less than Russia claims, but a lot more than the West pretends). Even if 20% of what one sees with the Nazi activity in Ukraine was happening anywhere else, NATO would bomb long time ago. See Justin in Canada for a recent example of hysteria. Who are we to tell Russians to be tolerant? They lost tens of millions to Nazi murder.
In the AP’s picture above, somebody should tell Zelensky that one doesn’t wear a uniform to get into a hammock. He is just so clueless, kind of funny actually.
Looks like we’ll be going without bread for some time soon.
Oh my, am I really?….
No, I’m not. I’m going to sit this one out like you and your other armchair warrior Mike Averko. Sad but interesting figures.
I don’t know. I guess I need to learn Russian to see what people are seeing.
This still looks like an oversized SEAD/counter battery operation with some special components to it. “The Big Overwatch”
Are there marine landings in Odessa or just a small team of special forces pinning down a regiment spotting for stand-off heliborne missiles?
Was there a suicidal day-time air mobile assault on a well-defended international airport or just old helicopters put on a trajectory used to distract anti-air systems and drink up ammo for SEAD attacks to penetrate? (followed by the real assault which landed much earlier and far from enemy notice)
What irks me about twitter and the media in general is they make a company look like a division and a stray rocket look like pre-planned genocide. A triangle is a special unit. So on.
Columns of destroyed Russian tanks at crawl? After years of experience in Syria against all kinds of Western ATGMs…. Russia seems to make tanks into drones, I wouldn’t be surprised if they charged some T-55/BMPs rigged to drive forward only to drink up all those ATGMs (just for lols; they weren’t even going to go down that road anyway but thanks for revealing your position). Yes I mean “put bricks on pedals, leave in first gear” type of automation.
Where was the tried and true massive tank push right after a major saturation artillery + missile attack? (as the Soviet manual says: Reduce elevation on map by three-meters with artillery then push tanks in). I can only assume the LDNR and the Ukrainian military in the east are engaged in this type of warfare.
The only thing that made sense was the Chernobyl grab through a pontoon and the drive around the “nuclear reserve” and yet it seems to be a very small unit that accomplished all that.
It seems like they are capturing nodes (like bridges and major highway intersections in cities) and driving a huge ass column to Kiev for what I suspect is the major arrests they’re planning.
Maybe they might find Zelensky in a hole like Saddam.
If they really did deploy that many internal troops and military policing units they are probably going to haul off a shitload of Nazi surrenders to Russia for a HD LIVE Tribunal STREAM TV! 2 weeks for every ‘war criminal’, a 1000 war criminals, heck you got yourself 38 seasons of real court drama!
It would be funny as fuck if Russia transports all these ‘Nazi captures’ into Syria in their own mini-Gitmo. That would be total badassry.
This can’t go longer than a couple of more days. Civilians need to buy food and shit. And Russia surely doesn’t want to appear cruel. It’s winter, which maybe explains why Russians didn’t go balls deep on the firepower so they can keep infrastructure for civilians. Occupation would be literally retarded. Though dismembering a state and not providing policing (MPs) is also retarded. Unless Russia perfected something in military policing of a hostile population in Syria that it can apply to Ukraine….
Even if Russia spends a year tracking every serial to every part to every weapon system ever produced by the USSR and ensuring its either recaptured or sold off far from Ukraine…. you’re basically asking for bandits to make Ukraine into Afghanistan (drugs and all) once the state becomes declawed.
Seems like a shitload of distractions. I’m going to assume this “show” is cover for the bag and grab op of parliament Nazis in Kiev. Transport all the “war criminals” back into Russia while the entire nation is looking at tanks and helicopters (and gay porn, of course).
The disinfo in this whole thing has made getting information online basically useless.
I just hope this denazification wasn’t like how it was in 1945 showing people fake lamp shades made of human skin and soap made of…well…yeah.
Just saying… demilitarization = rational (especially when WMDs are invoked; thanks Bush), denazification = larp. Deba’athification…. what is with people and de-things. Deprogramming….
As I said before, I have no idea what the Ukrainians think they are fighting for – mere independence on the material level certainly isn’t it – but it is so amazing in this age of late stage decadence to actually see someone have the backbone to fight, suffer, and die, for heir principles, and to correctly perceive that death and suffering are hardly the worst thing in existence, and that not living well is.
Moreover, to fight against overwhelming strength and power and not meekly submit.
Well, well, well, so the Dmitry’s of the world, the Daniel Chieh’s of the world, have not won yet.
That is good.
Whatever the outcome of this war, it’s an inspiration for us all and may this be the turning of the tide against the spirit of empty materialism and lack of values that is seeking to take over the world.
The foreign policy difficulties won’t help, but I think it’s domestic issues that Dems will be up against it on. So far, polling indicates a complete demolition, but that actually makes me uneasy. November is still a long way off and it’s better to guard against overconfidence. If this were a TV show, somebody would be saying, “I don’t like this – it’s too quiet around here.”
The domestic problems are more damning to the DNC than the foreign errors. The outright stalking of Democrat Senators Manchin and Sinema has created a serious problem with swing voters. And, the SJW left thinks the answer is to assault party cohesiveness in an effort to become more extreme: (1)
The House is going to be a huge swing. 30 Democrats have retired.
With only 1/3 of the Senate up for election, there is a limit to how much can change in a single cycle. MAGA will not obtain the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster. Given GOP(e) holdovers like Mitch McConnell, it is not clear that MAGA will have an outright majority.
Having reasonable expectations is important:
— Will Not-The-President Biden be Impeached by the House for election fraud? Yes.
— Will Chief Justice Roberts have to preside in the Senate Trial and listen to all of the evidence that SCOTUS refused to hear before tacitly supporting The Blue Coup? Yes.
— Will there will be a conviction & removal from office? Highly Unlikely.
PEACE 😇
__________
(1) https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/2022/02/23/aoc-led-squad-reveals-latest-strategy-designed-to-give-joe-biden-midterm-election-nightmares-n526663
I recently watched Alexander Sokurov’s “Russian Ark (2002)”; which incidentally you can find on YouTube here:
The main character is the cryptically named “the European”, who represents the haughty French aristocrat Marquis de Custine. His role throughout the movie was to provide commentary on Russia and its history; as he did in his 1843 book “Letters from Russia”. His comments are mostly critical; for example he once insists that an orchestra he sees in the museum is “European” since Russians can’t possibly have produced this good a music on their own. He also tells his Russian companion that “Russians are so talented at copying, because you don’t have ideas of your own” adding that this is because “the authorities don’t want you to have them”. He also rejects the Europeaness of Russians, once opining that Peter the Great is loved by Russians because “in Asia tyrants are adored. The more terrible the tyrant, the more his memory is cherished”.
Though it gets boring at times; I highly recommend the movie for its sightseeing and intellectual commentary on Russian history.
One might say that it is legitimate to try and create a buffer zone of neutral states between two great powers, but in reality each state will try and extend it’s power and influence over the neutral states to gain the upper hand.
That’s why those who say Russia had a total right to demand Nato not extend into Ukraine were being disingenuous.
That might make sense if Russia were prepared to likewise not project it’s power into Ukraine, but that clearly isn’t the case.
I am increasingly realizing that neutrality simply isn’t a real possibility in this world – one is always either being pushed in one direction or the other.
What I have noticed in my own life on the spiritual level is that I have multiple times tried to establish neutrality between myself and friends and family with opposing values – it never works.
Subtly, insensible, they try and colonies you and push their values on you.
One side is always either winning or losing.
No, we have no choice but to fight the good fight, not using the weapons of the enemy of course but trying to liberate them from their oppressive thought-systens and free then into beauty and love.
The dilemma here – for me – is that both america and Russia seem to represent evil in different ways and forms, so where then is the good fight?
And it is certainly spiritually perilous for Ukraine to ally itself with America and the West, although in different ways – and as apparently the Ukrainians perceive well – falling under grim shadow of Russia and people like Karlin represents an equal, perhaps worse, spiritual peril.
Well, it is up to the Ukrainians to decide and chart their own spiritual destiny, and apparently with a deep knowledge of the region they have decided falling under Russia’s grim shadow is for the moment at least worse.
Seeing the attitude and spirit of the Russia backers here, which is really pretty gross, I can certainly see why.
But it’s certainly not an easy place to be on, stuck between two evil empires.
In times like these, the small states are where we must look for spiritual hope.
The Duran is saying that it is a fake story and that they surrendered and are prisoners.
If so, I don’t blame them one bit. IMO, it is the sensible thing to have done, when facing stand off weapons.
I was lucky to see it in the movie theater when it was released. The best thing about the movie was the hypnotic effect achieved I guess by the camerawork (the entire movie was filmed in 1 take). When the movie ended it was like waking up from a dream. Never experienced it in another movie. This wouldn’t work on a regular television.
Today you learned something.
Maybe.
Weren’t you insisting he would be on the first plane to Switzerland or London or Israel? So we know who has been clueless.
Even better description as it means RF is “denacificating” a country where 95% of population is nothing but eastern Slavs themselves, but somehow at the same time those 20% pure evil Nazis are in there too.
There is something incredibly weird and tragic about Zelensky, who was an actor and comedian, needing to deal with a serious issue like an invasion.
Reagan and Trump may have both been involved in showbiz to a certain extent, but what they did was different. (and they were never on the other side of invasion) When Reagan was in movies, he was reading scripts – when he was on TV he was a presenter. Zelenksy, being a comedian, may have had the least filter of them all, and it may have led to him saying colossally dumb things, like that Ukraine would get nuclear weapons.
It reminds me of the old story of the Nixon-Kennedy debate, where the people listening on radio, thought that Nixon had won, while the people seeing it on TV thought Kennedy had won. I guess it would be an even bigger inversion, when compared to Soviet leaders who often had a strange appearance.
Muratov, editor of Novaya Gazeta, the only anti-Putin newspaper in Russia,
used the phrase, “Our peace-loving Russian people.” What a joke! Since when
have the Russians been peace loving? In the 77 years from the end of WW II, the
Russians have been the most violent and therefore the most contemptible
people in Europe. The current murder rate in Russia is 7.3 per 100,000.
In Poland, by comparison, it’s about 0.7 per 100,000. Russia invaded
Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Afghanistan in 1979, etc.
Of course, that’s nothing new. In the last 300 years Russia’s inept foreign
policy completely alienated all of its neighbors. As I said here before,
“Size is the root of all evil.” Russians have become so corrupted by the
size of their territory that they are divorced from reality, to the point of
psychosis.
Something similar happened to Germans. As Kissinger said, “Germany
is too large for Europe, and too small for the world.” As a result, Germans
can’t even do philosophy right. Hegelianism, Marxism, Nietzscheanism,
and Nazism as philosophies of life are divorced from reality to the point
of psychosis. The Brits may have had an empire but the small size of their
island at least kept their egos in check so give me their philosophers
any time. Plus all philosophers before Whitehead can be rejected outright
because they failed to incorporate Darwinism and Quantum Physics into
their corpus, and so they are stuck in the outdated Mechanistic Paradigm.
To recapitulate, obscenely large countries like Russia, the U.S., China, India,
etc must be broken up. Of course, any country that lies outside the
Goldilocks zone on the scale of optimality will eventually collapse under
its own weight but the world can’t afford to wait this long.
As always. Perceptions – what people think they know – is always a major part of wars. We have new, faster technology, but the “stories” are rather old, almost familiar.
Few tips: Russians always prod first, they mindlessly wonder out of the woods as decoys and the real force is behind. Kiev announcing huge “Russian casualties” suggests that there are large Ukie casualties, a narrative management. I am not sure Zelko is still in Kiev, could he be possibly that stupid? He is the designated media martyr.
Russians in wars act in mysterious ways, but they usually win (or at least prevail). My dad was a student in 1968 when Russians invaded Czecho-slovakia. It was a summer break so he and his friends were camping in hills about 30 km outside Bratislava. They woke up one morning with dozens of Soviet “soldiers” milling around them. Some had weapons, others barely any shoes, some were drunk. They were friendly, non-threatening, even offered a ride to the closest city. Somehow they crossed the border unseen, the actual ‘invasion’ was a few days later. Same pattern: milling around cities, talking with civilians. When the real units showed up, you could see them in the background, and nobody could fight them.
I don’t know if this is intentional, or part of the way they are, but it works. The initial muddle creates confusion, and makes room for focused attacks. In Ukraine they have a few must-have goals: air force and ‘navy’, Western bases like Ochakov on the Black See (already destroyed), nuclear sites, eastern approaches like Mariupol, Kharkiv, and probably Kiev. They will get them, all else is noise, a fog of war, lying and disinformation.
The real story here is the Western abandonment of their ‘f..ck the Russia!‘ Ukraine project. Billions spent, all that work, and they run away like screaming teenage girls. They are still screaming. Now they want the hapless Ukies to die in large numbers so the narrative can have some blood. They stupidly celebrate the ‘martyrs on the island’ (Hollywood movie?), they could have lived, but they died because their officer was a dick-head.
I hope it is over soon. Demilitarized, hungry and cold, but with stories to tell, there will be no ‘partisan war’. On the bright side, the whole Covid hysteria ended overnight. Maybe it was just a cover to end it without losing face. AK was an enthusiast for the shots (or at least didn’t mind) so this is a good way to move on.
Oh boy, when you lose an argument, you obfuscate. I said ‘if 20% was true‘, where did you get 20% Nazis?
My guess is around 5% Nazi-like, mostly Galicians and a few confused urban thugs. Enough to intimidate, but not in charge. The population seems like designated victims (by the West), in the same old vein as Nazis – identical to Banderism in WWII. But you know that, you are just angry you are losing, so any narrative you can conjure us is a palliative.
West used ‘Nazi” thugs to get power in 2014. They lost control of them, or had to tolerate them. They needed them. Now Russia is using the Nazi presence as an excuse to clean it up. They all do what they can to manipulate. At the end that doesn’t matter that much. Who wins matters.
I don’t think I said ‘first’. It is still early, we are on the second day.
Putin would not seem so great a gambler, if the Chinese have already agreed to move on Taiwan this year.
Thanks, this is an excellent comment overall.
And I shall drink two drams of whiskey and hike into the woods to match your one 🙂
Regarding your point about honor – honor is one of those useless and silly things destroyed by modernity, which knows better.
In fact, in the modern narrative honor is merely your genes trying to establish reputational integrity in your community – not an absolute and inviolable principle – and therefore one would be a fooll to allow oneself to be manipulated by it.
Honor, which is frequently self sacrificing and foolish, is in this system not just something outgrown but positively shameful.
The pesky little problem is that we feel a pleasure and thrill deep in our bones when we are confronted with honorable acts or act honorably ourselves – and we feel honor is somehow actually bound up with what most matters to us and our ultimate happiness.
As the Left wars on human nature, it increasingly takes away one natural and spontaneous pleasure after another – and that is in the end why that whole system will fail.
By their fruits ye shall judge them – that is the measure of every philosophy of life.
Does it make you live better and more happily and more fruitfully and more expansively and more generously and more courageously and more beautifullly?
Or does it shrivel your soul, make you into a coward, and destroy beauty?
Increasingly this is how the war will be fought.
Said it as if Galicians were some Germanic Nordic Aryans colonists living in there, but those are nothing but Eastern Slavs too.
From the Russian statements, they want distance from strategic nukes.
More time to react to mistakes and more time to react to actual launches if they are far enough.
very fucking reasonable IMO.
Ukraine was the lamb testing the Bear’s marked territory. It is now getting eaten. That is just normal. That is expected. I completely understand why USA and it’s super close allies acted this way, but why the hell did Ukraine signed up?
I am not sure what the Ukrainian citizens deserve but the elites should all be killed off. Every single one responsible for the current situation in the Ukrainian govt needs to be killed off. This I hope that Russia and Putin will do for Ukraine as a favor.
On twitter, a lot of people repeatedly tweeting their anxieties about what will happen to Ukraine’s “LGBTQ+” community. It seems utterly detached from sympathy for normal people (more likely, these people had dark plans for Ukraine), and to be some crazy, runaway signaling game.
Once you see that, it causes one to question all moral signaling about the conflict. What is moral optimization in 2022? It’s an uncertain game because the rules have clearly changed, from a hundred years ago.
Our politicians are incontinent. (They sent Kamala Harris to Munich – she is whore) Sympathy might turn into guns and bullets, missiles to kill people. It might encourage them to hand out weapons to civilians. It might turn into sanctions which do not hurt the wealthy, only immeserate the poor, and probably backfire as well.
I sympathize with Daniel’s desire to strip the moral signaling off it, even if it is very un-PC. Of course, woke pols don’t read Unz, but we all seek universal principles.
Finally Germany indicated that it is ready to supports cutting Russia off from SWIFT.
And also this:
From Thomas Escritt
https://twitter.com/tomescritt?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497240206931550209%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwiadomosci.gazeta.pl%2Fwiadomosci%2F711488128157065niemcy-minister-finansow-o-odcieciu-rosji-od-swift-jestesmy.html
Somebody should tell them. Most seem too dense to understand what is going on and how they are always used. It happens again and again. Bandera was also a sucker used by the Nazis.
Waiting for AK to explain that it is really just rhetorical Chinese support sign for the international sanctions and in reality Chinese now simply are just giving suitcases full of yuans straight through the border for the various RF commodities.
The best way to ride out broad daily life-crippling sanctions is to become religiously TradCon, and forsake middle-class affluence (what sanctions will hurt most), like some Iranians or Afghans.
China imports food, but this is a luxury. The CPC has ensured food production capacity adequate for national *needs*.
A blockade of Taiwan would be a drawn out PR disaster for China. Picture endless footage of starving and medically deprived women and children broadcast all over the world for several months. Instead, audacity: eliminate Taiwanese C&C, then its air defenses with missile and rocket attacks, then drop all 3 airborne divisions to take at least one airfield; use the airfield to fly in more soldiers and some heavy equipment; break through to the ocean from the airfield to ensure a safer seaborne reinforcement. All of this could happen in a matter of days. If anti-ship missiles are still a threat after achieving air supremacy, use the Dunkirk strategy in reverse: lots of small boats, none of them worth wasting expensive anti-ship missiles on. These probably can’t carry tanks, but the Y-20 can bring some of those by air. The main possible point of failure in such a plan is incomplete elimination of Taiwan’s air defenses, including its quite capable air force. If the plan works, it’s a fait accompli within a week or two.
But, given the suicidal tendencies of current day America, China might well be better advised to wait. Never interrupt your enemy when he’s killing himself.
Aha, we know now what German_reader has been up to during his brief absence since the shooting started.
I read that there were 11 deaths and almost a hundred prisoners.
Currently, oil tankers headed from the Persian Gulf to China are relatively unmolested. A CCP blockade of Taiwanese microchips would result in a counter blockade preventing China from obtaining oil & coking coal required for steel production. Exports to the U.S. and Europe would also be blocked. Chances are high that Chinese chip manufacturer SMIC, would have a “Stuxnet” like incident where most of their capacity self destructs.
The CCP might have food and energy to meet minimum requirements, but there would be an immediate recession. If the counter blockade continued, there would be a catastrophic depression.
The interlinking between America & China is a double edged sword. It bites at China as badly as (possibly worse than) it does the U.S. The concept of MAGA Reindustrialization and CCP decoupling is actually good for both sides though SJW Globalist elites, like Xi, would disagree.
PEACE 😇
I was busy with work, couldn’t write comments.
Also tbh I don’t have much to say. Obviously extremely negative development. Have to commend Ukrainian resistance. I don’t think there’s any chance Ukraine will be able to defeat the invasion, but at least Russia can’t claim that this was an almost bloodless re-union desired by most Ukrainians.
I am generally in agreement with your sentiments there.
The problem is that US intel has been so bad in the past that it becomes impossible to accept it in good faith now. There is also the problem of the self fulfilling prophecy since the West gave Putin no real options for face saving. I think Putin correctly read it as a moment to put up or shut up.
It does seem to me that this was not Putin’s preferred path. If at some point in the past 15 years or so, Russia was treated as an entity with legitimate interests