Wow for my first comment on the thread, I’d like to welcome everyone here.

Especially the Niggers.

The Negro is the sacred spirit animal of the American nation, spread unto earth by the GAE.

Without the Negro, the Fag would not have the Holy HIV, that great spiritual cleanser, and without the Negro the Jew could not fulfill his fetishes. Praise be onto the Negro, and Praise be to Jesus Christ with whose grace we must accept the grace of all mankind. Directly, let the Holy spirit your body through the tools of another man.

The further history of Biddle is a moral tale. His bank was re-chartered by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and, in consequence of speculation in cotton and excessive advances to officers, it suspended payments in 1839 and later was declared bankrupt. Biddle was arrested and charged with fraud. The Pennsylvania court found the evidence insufficient to sustain the charge. Soon after, while still pursued by civil litigation, he died. His fate was that of nearly all who have dealt in an innovative fashion with money.

John Kenneth Galbraith, Money
Whence it Came, Where it Went

It’s great. archive dot org has it to lend:

https://archive.org/details/moneywhenceitcam0000galb_i7z8

As follow-up to the discussion started by Dmitry and GR:

— Low-IQ , SJW Globalists operate on dogma that cannot survive examination that uses intellectual rigor.
— High-IQ, Orban is doing the best any English speaker can achieve with the train wreck that Political Correctness and Cancel Culture has intentionally inflicted on the English language.

Brussels Low-IQ “authoritarian liberalism” is inherently anti-democratic. SJW Globalists literally devalue Polish and Hungarian voters. George Orwell warned about this sort of Low-IQ “liberal” danger

Orban’s High-IQ “illiberalism” is a genuine defense of democracy and national sovereignty.
____

I had to place the terms liberal, illiberal, and liberalism in quotes because at this point they are effectively devoid of meaning.

Among the horrors of 1930’s-1940’s “liberal” National Socialism is the now infamous phrase *Papers Please*.

What is a core value of today’s Low-IQ, National Socialist “liberals”, such as Justin Trudeau? His Canadian reich is demanding vaccine *Papers Please* in a quest, intentional or unintentional, to recreate 1930’s German values.

High-IQ individuals who defy Führer Trudeau’s Low-IQ “authoritarian liberalism” are to be targeted for official government persecution: (1)

Reading from a prepared statement, Justin Trudeau’s Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino stated the Canadian government intends to target any American who may have donated to the Freedom Convoy protest effort. Apparently, the Canadian government wants to scare Americans away from donating to support the Freedom Protest in Ottawa.

These Canadian officials are bonkers.

How much does the government of Canada spend lobbying and influencing our congress for policies that are against our interests? Billions. Yet, send a few bucks to support the working class protest groups opposing the Canadian government, and they intend to launch the full capability of the North American intelligence apparatus against ordinary Americans?

There’s a certain pathological mindset who would make such statements.

Pathological is a powerful, and sadly accurate, label.

Perhaps 1930’s Germany is not the best analogy. If Low-IQ “liberalism” begins casting High-IQ resistance in prison (or worse) that is an opening move towards Cambodia’s 1960’s Low-IQ “authoritarian liberalism”.

Does Justin Trudeau aspire to be the next Pol Pot?

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/02/07/trudeau-government-vows-to-criminally-target-american-donors-supporting-freedom-protest-for-undermining-national-security/

Thanks, to Mr. Unz for another Open Thread!

Archive can get bent, until their epubs are readable!

JK! Sometimes they are quite useful for rare historical books, like annals.

Could we revive the woolly for the cost of one Winter Olympics?

Erdogan, Lukashenko & Xi

Re: https://www.unz.com/pescobar/erdogan-in-kiev-putin-in-beijing-can-neo-ottomanism-fit-into-greater-eurasia/

Excerpts –

Meanwhile, in Kiev, Erdogan and Zelensky were reviewing the Turkish-Ukrainian strategic partnership.

Erdogan did perform quite a feat in Kiev. He called for ‘a peaceful and diplomatic solution’ in Ukraine, not exactly following the relentless War Inc. narrative. He even said the solution should be found ‘within the framework of the Minsk agreements, on the basis of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and international law.’

That happens to exactly tie in with Moscow’s view. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had previously commented, “if Turkey could encourage Kiev to implement the Minsk deal, Moscow would welcome this development.”

&

A conversation about Erdoganian neo-Ottomanism in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar beats any think tank analysis. Bazaaris tell us it’s something in constant flux. In foreign policy terms, it migrated from pro-EU to frustration for being excluded, coupled with the certainty that Turkey is fed up with being a US client state. It’s as if Erdogan, instinctively, has grasped the collective west’s current, abysmal strategic debacle – thus his effort, now, to build some strategic cooperation with Russia-China.

Has he undergone a conversion though? Considering his legendary volatility, all bets are off. Erdogan has a long memory, and has not forgotten that Putin was the first world leader to condemn the – botched – 2016 coup attempt by the usual intel suspects, and support him personally.

It’s still a long way for Erdogan’s Turkey to become a strategic partner to Russia. Yet he has a knack of knowing which way the geopolitical winds are blowing – and that points to Eurasia integration, the Russian-conceptualized Greater Eurasia Partnership, and the primacy of the Russia-China strategic partnership manifested through BRI, EAEU and the SCO.

There’s even an Eurasianist mini-boom in Turkey. They are secular; anti-NATO – just like Russia-China; consider the Empire as the undisputed troublemaker in West Asia; and want closer ties with Moscow and Tehran.

Re: https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-on-the-future-of-union-state-ukraine-147536-2022/

Excerpt –

MINSK, 7 February (BelTA) – I am convinced that in the future Ukraine will become an ally of Belarus and Russia, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said in an interview with the VGTRK journalist, radio and TV host Vladimir Soloviev, BelTA has learned.

Vladimir Soloviev asked the president how he sees the future of the Union State in 10-15 years, what country can join it during this period.

“You know, Belarus is already a member. I think that Kazakhstan had its lesson [the January protests]. If we talk about the term of 15 years, I am sure that Ukraine will join too if we do not make mistakes,’ Aleksandr Lukashenko said. ‘Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, I think, will also join due to their economic necessity.”

Lukashenko is referring to something I brought up this past December 9.

https://www.eurasiareview.com/09122021-russian-ukraine-coverage-continues-to-lack-insight-oped/

Excerpt –

NATO prefers prospective members to have peacefully agreed borders – something not evident with Kiev regime controlled Ukraine. Are the authorities in Kiev willing to give up its claims to Crimea and the rebel held Donbass territory in exchange for NATO membership? Would Russia be especially pleased with that scenario?

The answer to the second question is probably not. In Kiev regime controlled Ukraine, there’re some areas with a noticeable pro-Russian contingent – something that will not be so easy for Russia to formally see drift further away.

A clearly stated provision that Ukraine will not be in any military alliance will face obstacles as well. Among pro-Russian advocates, there’s the belief that Russia and Ukraine could be allies again at some point in the future. There’s also the Biden-NATO view, which rejects a red line on NATO expansion.

Around the time of the Soviet breakup, Russia exhibited an interest in joining NATO. That sentiment diminished as a result of anti-Russian slants getting the upper hand.

Within Western establishment circles, there’s talk of Russia needing to change for there to be better relations between Washington and Moscow. On the flip side, there’s the view that the predominating biases against Russia need to be reversed for the purpose of accuracy, leading to an improved and mutually beneficial relationship.

When the Soviet Union broke up Russia was weak, as Western NGO’s flooded Ukraine with the influence of anti-Russian elements among some (stress some) Ukrainians situated in the West and/or Ukraine. Russia has had a learning curve in matching the soft power against it.

It’s looking more and more like the Biden Administration has hyped a Russia-Ukraine conflict. Patrick Cockburn’s February 7 Counterpunch article concerns this matter. An excerpt from that piece:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/02/07/putin-is-playing-a-strong-hand-on-ukraine-as-long-as-he-doesnt-invade/

Excerpt –

One conspiratorial explanation for the American and British overreaction to a not-atypical bit of Russian sabre-rattling may have something in it. This holds that Western intelligence services are neither stupid nor ill-informed enough as to not know that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. But they are cunningly pretending to believe in the threat to provide an excuse for the West to expand its military presence in Eastern Europe.

This sounds too subtle, though America would dearly like to sink the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project between Germany and Russia.

Domestic political advantages clearly play a role in deepening the crisis. Security and foreign policy elites in Washington and London enjoy waging cold wars and Britain always wants to secure its status as the closest US ally.

Ukraine not being able to get into NATO and/or the EU, while having ongoing economic problems could serve to sway less Ukrainian opposition towards Russia.

Post-Soviet Ukrainian presidential election results show a pattern where the more pro-Russian candidates won – Kuchma over Kravchuk, Yanukovych over his rivals, Zelensky over Poroshenko. Offsetting a pro-Russian orientation is a combination of those Ukrainian oligarchs having business interests in the West and the disproportionate influence of nationalist anti-Russian elements.

As Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.” In the long run, maybe Ukraine doesn’t get into the Eurasian Economic Union or Collective Security Treaty Organization, while also not achieving membership in NATO and/or EU, as has been the current predicament.

Not to be overlooked is China’s role in Ukrainian economic development. At some point, China might enter a Russian-Ukrainian negotiating process, which might help pave the way for closer Russo-Ukrainian ties – something that US foreign policy neocon and neolibs haven’t favored. Instead, the latter favor the idea of Ukraine as a base against Russia.

As I’ve previously said, Russia isn’t North Korea (Russia is comparatively much more like the US) and Ukraine is quite democratically challenged. These factors explain why Russia hasn’t caught a neolib-neocon leaning “democracy” bug from Ukraine – a view that the late Brzezinski and some others have openly sought.

First two arguments are about infantry & anti-tank weapons, didn't read further.

Misses the point.

Will not be a war of tanks & infantry like WW2. Will be a war of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and rocket and tube artillery shattering Ukrainian formations very quickly. https://t.co/EaqnVRlYua

— Anatoly Karlin (Z,Z) (@akarlin0) February 6, 2022

He makes a good point, the Infanteer’s greatest weapons are the shovel & machine gun.

The position is won by the bayonet & held by bullet – Brit saying WW1

Both sides are pretty dug in around Donbass tho, I think.

ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

Of the Olympic sports, I like Curling the most so far, as it blends thinking and doing to a much greater extent than most others. Simplistic brute force or high speed is penalised over grace, élan and panache. There are also many tactical elements.

The second favorite is biathlon. Its more difficult than just average cross-country skiing and it contains marksmanship as a potential make-and-break moment.

—

Was an interesting discussion on the recent ACX open thread asking why people like Rogan give in to the mob. Ultimately it’s a systemic issue. As long as the main platforms are highly centralised, it makes even wildly successful people vulnerable. Decentralisation is key.

I would add, another reason is that conservatives are individualists and left-liberals play as a team. Peterson will decry collectivism and praise individualism, but that is precisely the reason why the right keeps losing.

—

The vision of foreign heads of state speed dating with Xi Jinping in Beijing is something to behold.
The markings of a modern metamorphosis of the ancient China tributary system are unmistakable. pic.twitter.com/I0F2ImdhEx

— Nadège Rolland (@RollandNadege) February 7, 2022

Wishful thinking vs the likely reality

https://en.topwar.ru/191921-v-chem-vsu-prevoshodjat-vs-rf.html

I trust our Hungarian commenter reiner tor (sadly missed) more than you regarding Orban, and he frequently lamented how Orban antagonizes teachers and other members of the “educated” classes, and doesn’t really care about creating a network of intellectual supporters, instead focusing on panem et circenses nonsense like building new football stadiums. And there’s undoubtedly a lot of corruption and nepotistic self-enrichment in his circle.
I’m generally sympathetic to Orban, but “high IQ” is probably too much praise for his policies.

I honestly do not have an IQ figure on Orban. He seems above average though not extraordinary. I was using the phrase more as a counter to the SJW Elitists who accuse Orban of being low-IQ because he protects national sovereignty.

Orban antagonizes teachers and other members of the “educated” classes, and doesn’t really care about creating a network of intellectual supporters
…
I’m generally sympathetic to Orban, but “high IQ” is probably too much praise for his policies.

There is, of course, a gaping chasm between “educated” and “intelligent”. George IslamoSoros and his anti-intellectuals have contaminated schools to make them stupider and more SJW dogmatic. Antagonizing teachers who support Merkel/Scholz “Open [Muslim] Borders” is obviously the right thing to do.

There really needs to be a Common Sense Quotient [CSQ]. Regardless of his IQ, Orban has hi-CSQ, and shows it by recognizing and countering SJW Globalism. Alas, hi-CSQ does not work well as a label as it is not a shared usage.

PEACE 😇

GIRALDI GOT A WHOOPING

It is good to know that Garaldi still personally fears me. He tried to get away with this. (1)

Israeli diplomats recently have been so desperate for affirmation of their suffering that they have produced in a United Nations session an alleged Palestinian “terror rock,” presumably the weapon of choice used by protesting Arab teenagers against heavily armed Israeli soldiers.

I pointed out that the Muslim Occupiers in Judea & Samaria believe rocks are dangerous.

Is this viral image — A symbol of rock “harmlessness”?
Or, a threat showing rocks are “dangerous”?

Of course Garaldi is mentally fragile and cannot stand my truth piercing his fiction. He deleted my accurate post because he personally fears me.
___

Why does anyone believe Garaldi The Liar?

His deceptions are so painfully transparent everyone should see right through them. Are people really that gulliable?

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/whoopi-gets-a-whipping/

How many of these so-called “traitor” athletes who have gone from the US to join the Chinese team are hapas?

Seems like potentially a lot. (at least, many don’t seem to look very Han) It’s an interesting phenomenon. From my perspective, seems like it might signify a greater perception of US decline, than if it was only full-bloods. Or maybe, it is all an outreach initiative by the Chinese to help highlight this decline or just appeal to expats.

If I were trying to put myself in the shoes of Chinese, I would be fearful of woke athletes infiltrating. Eileen Gu supports BLM.
_____
They should add more martial sports to the Olympics.

I glanced at the original piece and it appeared internally inconsistent. Also, based on an assumption that Russia troops would behave stupidly.

If Ukrainian defenders consolidate in urban areas they would be very hard to root out. However, Russia needs very few of those hard to capture points. They will be bypassed and logistically cutoff. At that point the Ukrainian troops can:
    • Stay hidden and eventually starve, or
    • Give up the advantage by attacking on terms defined by Russian military leadership.

If armed combat takes place, the most likely events are:
    — Russia will win The War. Probably quickly.
    — Russia will struggle with The Peace.
After seeing GW Bush’s Iraq Peace fiasco, Putin wisely does not want to be in that position.

Again neither Ukraine nor Russia want a conflict. Their shared goal is preventing Not-The-President Biden from starting one.

PEACE 😇

Olympics once included pistol dueling:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_dueling

Orban antagonizes teachers and other members of the “educated” classes

Probably unavoidable. They would hate him anyway because Western elites hate him. Probably wiser for him to cut their funding and thus make them less powerful, than to leave them alone, or, worse, give them even more.

They should bring it back.

Some of the safety concerns could potentially be mitigated by using robot opponents. Or even something like paintball, or laser tag (could potentially animate the “lasers”).

Would be even better to add skies or do it on horseback.

Likely, futile. Abstractions will always favor a verbal tilt, which will always make intellectuals lean left.

I don’t agree with this, at least not totally; Zemmour seems to be able to attract some pretty intelligent people to his campaign (graduates of the elite universities, high civil servants etc.), and without that kind of people you’re never going to achieve anything. I believe a large part of Trump’s failure was based on the fact that due to his own personality flaws and lack of culture he couldn’t attract high quality personnel that could have carried out a Trumpian agenda and formed a new elite.
That being said, a lot of the “educated” classes is of course totally worthless.

Just been reading about the origin of Whoopi’s name on wikipedia, and found it really surprising:

Her birth name is Caryn Elaine Johnson. (She’s a “Karen!”) BTW, as expected, her mom was a single mother.

She has stated that her stage forename (“Whoopi”) was taken from a whoopee cushion: “When you’re performing on stage, you never really have time to go into the bathroom and close the door. So if you get a little gassy, you’ve got to let it go. So people used to say to me, ‘You’re like a whoopee cushion.’ And that’s where the name came from.”

About her stage surname, she claimed in 2011, “My mother did not name me Whoopi, but Goldberg is my name—it’s part of my family, part of my heritage, just like being black”, and “I just know I am Jewish. I practice nothing. I don’t go to temple, but I do remember the holidays.” She has stated that “people would say ‘Come on, are you Jewish?’ And I always say ‘Would you ask me that if I was white? I bet not.’” One account recalls that her mother, Emma Johnson, thought the family’s original surname was “not Jewish enough” for her daughter to become a star. Researcher Henry Louis Gates Jr. found that all of Goldberg’s traceable ancestors were African Americans, that she had no known German or Jewish ancestry, and that none of her ancestors were named Goldberg. Results of a DNA test, revealed in the 2006 PBS documentary African American Lives, traced part of her ancestry to the Papel and Bayote people of modern-day Guinea-Bissau of West Africa.

Was an interesting discussion on the recent ACX open thread asking why people like Rogan give in to the mob.

I just listened to about 40 minutes of Rogan-Carlson from 6 Feb. He has not given into the mob. He has tossed them a bone. All those episodes spotify deleted are available on archive.org.

Rogan is way ahead in this fight so far. On the subreddit they said he won’t get good guests now. Bulls\$i*. The list of people who want to go on his podcast is now for all practical purposes infinity.

https://www.thefencepost.com/news/cowboy-mounted-shooting-fastest-growing-equine-sport/

Don’t really know much of anything about French politics.

But Zemmour is a guy that seems to have verbal tilt. IMO, speaking the dialect probably makes him more palatable to that class. Also seems to be France’s 11th hour, which might encourage a small number of defections, of more sensible people, who realize that most of the third world lacks this intellectual milieu.

Here an interesting data

Russia’s gas production in January at a five-year high

https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-gas-production-in-january-at-a-five-year-high-234201/?source=russia

If Russia’s gas production is at a five-year high, the Russia’s gas flow to Europe is at years low and the Russia’s gas consumption is quite constant, then it must be an unnamed big sink of gas. The answer is obvious: Asia (not just China). So Brandon’s desperate maneuvers to “replace the Russian gas” with Qatari and fracked American gas are just wishful thinking.
There is one realistic alternative to partially offset a hypothetic shutdown of gas flowing from Russia: Let Iran to enter in the gas market. I’m afraid that Zionist masters of puppet Brandon will not allow him. So, the long term trend of upward prices will continue.

You think Russians are less likely to engage in wishful thinking?

From that article: “ Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Syria – yes, the outcome of any conflict was decided in the air”

Yugoslavia was funny. NATO had total air dominance (the difference between NATO and Yugoslavia was more lopsided than the difference between Russia and Ukraine) and after about 6 weeks of bombing thought that they had destroyed the Yugoslav army. But when Milosevic surrendered it turned out that the air strikes were much less effective than had been assumed: the Yugo army was basically intact. Americans would have had a very nasty surprise had they actually invaded Yugoslavia with their ground forces.

In Syria, Russia still managed to lose a couple hundred men despite its very limited operation.

The Russian wishful thinking is that Ukraine’s infantry and rest of the army will sit in an open field like in Iraq and will be easily found and bombed.

You are free to delude yourself believing that those Javelin wunderwaffe will allow the Ukrainian army to defeat the Russian army. They may have a marginal effect at best but no more than this. Hypothesizing, the “battle of Kiev” will be more like the battle of Baghdad (2003) with lots of deserters than the battle of Berlin (1945).
Anyway, relax. The whole hoax of Brandon about “the imminent Russian invasion” has already fizzled. It had to be re-scheduled several times and will be re-scheduled much more times. By the way, you can read the comments of the cited article. There is not desire in the Russian society to invade Ukraine, which is considered a toxic asset, if annexed. In fact there are drops of sympathy toward the Ukrainian people that is suffering from this weird regime.

You are free to delude yourself believing that those Javelin wunderwaffe will allow the Ukrainian army to defeat the Russian army

There may be more than one delusion at work here: a Russian nationalist delusion that missiles and bombs will allow for a nearly bloodless conquest, and a Ukrainian one that such air instruments are useless toys.

We saw in Yugoslavia that massive aerial
bombardment isn’t as effective as those who gave wielded it believe it to be, and in Syria we saw that even after massive bombardment, forces more primitive than Ukrainian ones can inflict casualties. on Russians.

In terms of training, equipment and motivation of the defenders taking Kiev would of course be more like taking Berlin than like taking Baghdad. To think otherwise is to engage in the same wishful as Russians did in 2014, when they assumed that Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv would fall into their lap.

I do agree with you that war is unlikely though. The Russian government is better informed and smarter than are most Russia fanboys on the internet, it will be too cautious to engage in such a misadventure. At most, Russia will formalize control of Donbas and maybe push out the Ukrainian forces around it a little bit. While they are at it, the Russians may also take out some elements of Ukraine’s MIC (tank factory in Kharkiv, rocket factories in Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk) with long range missiles. They’ll succeed, suffering more than Russian fanboys expected, but due to the limited nature of such an operation it won’t be too bad. We will then have gotten a small taste of what a full war would have been like.

See if the deep state really wanted to kick Russia butt they would have a top secret project with Elon Musk tunnel machine boring a network of subteranean sneak defense. (Supposedly the North Koreans have done this manually. I know a fellow who earned a small fortune doing ground penetrating radar surveys in South Korea to map the extent of infiltration and he would not tell me how extensive they are except for sure it is a number greater than zero and large enough that this guy is retired at 45.) Then provoke the Russians by taunting the hell out of them. Then letting them getting their entire attack force on the top of the tunnel network. Then jumping out like jack in the box surprise and kill.

Zemmour hasn’t been polling well lately. He won’t get elected President this year, and probably won’t even make it to the runoff.

In the runoff, Macron will probably face Pécresse, or Le Pen; and Macron will probably win the runoff.

Several people, including myself, have made th pound that natural gas is a fungible commodity.

desperate maneuvers to “replace the Russian gas” with Qatari and fracked American gas are just wishful thinking.

Incorrect.

Huge amount of U.S. LNG has swing from Asian to European buyers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/european-lng-imports-hit-two-year-high-us-flotilla-delivers-much-needed-supplies

In order to extort “promote” wind & solar, the current U.S. regime’s attempted to influence ​this market, but failed.

If Russia’s gas production is at a five-year high, the Russia’s gas flow to Europe is at years low and the Russia’s gas consumption is quite constant, then it must be an unnamed big sink of gas. The answer is obvious: Asia (not just China).

At least partially correct.

The removal of U.S. supply to Asia is being replaced by fungible Russian supply. Given that the primary buyer is PRC, Putin is ramping up Russian vulnerability to an economic crisis in that country.

The other thing that seem to be happening is storage levels are coming up. Part of the replenishment diversion is an inflation hedge. If one buys something now, it does not have to be bought at a higher price later.

PEACE 😇

The whole hoax of Brandon about “the imminent Russian invasion” has already fizzled. It had to be re-scheduled several times and will be re-scheduled much more times. By the way, you can read the comments of the cited article. There is not desire in the Russian society to invade Ukraine, which is considered a toxic asset, if annexed.

This is what I have Bern saying for quite some time.

Russia needs to keep NATO away from its strategic asset in Crimea. However, Putin does not want to inherit the economic recession in Donbass.

The whole situation can readily be deferred as neither Russia nor Ukraine has an upside to escalating. Short term all that is required is a bilateral deconfliction arrangement that will prevent an accidental start to fighting. Eventually a more permanent deal is is needed, but that can wait until provocateur Not-The-President Biden has been cast out of the White House.

PEACE 😇

Bloodless conquest of Ukraine is also wishful thinking

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-warns-russian-invasion-could-see-kyiv-fall-in-days-cause-50000-casualties/

Americans have already gamed this scenario:
– 25,000 to 50,000 civilians deaths.
– 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead.
– 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers dead.

Hardly a bloodless conquest. Anyway

If Russia does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours, US officials said.

But don’t worry. This is just hysteria. In addition, the main Ukrainian deterrence “weapon” is its toxicity within the Russian state. Russia is not in position to give it endless subsidies. Rebuilding of Crimea has consumed already 10,000 million Euros. LDPR, if annexed, would cost even more. So, let imagine a dystopia with an after-war Ukraine conquered by Russia. It would suck several hundred thousand million Euros. Not feasible.

If Zemmour is smart, the same election theft conspiracy “theories” should start circulating after a Macron re-election, only that classical voter suppression by way of vaccine passport led to less votes for him. Time to harden his base

I bet the whole Brandon’s hysteria is related to the battle of gas, namely, Nord Stream II. Several days ago I read about a “deconfliction idea” consisting in a big shunt-pipeline connecting Arctic Yamal fields to the central pipeline system going from central Russia trough Ukraine. But this weird proposal is senseless for Russia. It will have to spend lots of money to build a giant shunt going trough Ukraine,… in order to pay more fees(!) to sell the very same gas that can directly go via NS2 (without fees). I would not be surprised if the whole mess is related to Hunter and Joe’s dirty business in Ukraine.

the imminent Russian invasion” has already fizzled. It had to be re-scheduled several times and will be re-scheduled much more times.

As I’ve said before, I have played chess against hundreds of Russians, and they lean toward what chess players call “quiet moves.” The “imminent” is not their usual thought pattern. American players are more impetuous, even reckless. I can’t prove it, but I think this patient quiet-moves trait can be extrapolated to Russia’s leaders. Meanwhile, American policy-makers project their own mental state of dramatic moves to the Russians.

Bloodless conquest of Ukraine is also wishful thinking

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-warns-russian-invasion-could-see-kyiv-fall-in-days-cause-50000-casualties/

Americans have already gamed this scenario:
– 25,000 to 50,000 civilians deaths.
– 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead.
– 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers dead.

Hardly a bloodless conquest.

This is realistic.

And that is before insurgency.

If Russia does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours, US officials said.

Kiev is about 80 miles from the border with Belarus. I’m sure Russians could reach Kiev in 48 hours. Establish control? It’s a hostile city, Galicia-like in its nationalism, with 3 million people. There would be lots of very well-armed (javelins, etc.) enemies there. Warsaw uprising took 63 days to subdue. Ukrainians wouldn’t be as desperate, but neither would be Russian conscripts.

In addition, the main Ukrainian deterrence “weapon” is its toxicity within the Russian state.

Not only subsidies, but years-long insurgency.

Kiev is about 80 miles from the border with Belarus. I’m sure Russians could reach Kiev in 48 hours. Establish control? It’s a hostile city, Galicia-like in its nationalism, with 3 million people.

More like somewhere between Galicia and the most pro-Russian part in eastern Ukraine. Granted, the Lviv consensus has increased in Kiev over the decades. That view has been put as a plurality of Kiev.

“Kiev is about 80 miles from the border with Belarus. I’m sure Russians could reach Kiev in 48 hours. Establish control? It’s a hostile city, Galicia-like in its nationalism, with 3 million people.”

More like somewhere between Galicia and the most pro-Russian part in eastern Ukraine

Poroshenko’s performance in the first round of the election, 2019, Galician provinces plus Kiev:

Lviv oblast 35.3%
Kiev City 25.6%
Ternopil Oblast: 24.4%
Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: 21.3%

As you can see, Kiev fits neatly among the three Galician provinces.

Similar story in 2019 parliamentary election:

Kiev fits with Galicia in terms of nationalism.

According to wiki, Guinea-Bissau was still populated by hunter-gatherers in 1000 AD. Shortly after this, agriculturalists with iron tools showed up. (presumably Whoopi’s ancestors?)

But it would be interesting to see how much “ghost DNA” she has.

Guinea-Bissau Creole, a Portuguese-based creole, is the national language and also considered the language of unity. The country’s per-capita gross domestic product is one of the lowest in the world. (\$851 in 2018) Guinea-Bissau has a history of political instability since independence, and only one elected president (José Mário Vaz) has successfully served a full five-year term.

I bet the whole Brandon’s hysteria is related to the battle of gas, namely, Nord Stream II.

This seems unlikely to me. Not-The-President Biden hates hydrocarbon fuels. He has already lashed out at the EastMed gas pipeline. It is hard to imagine any scenario where he is pro-NS2.

That being said, he has dementia and his surviving son is taking bribes (& drugs). Perhaps there is a something happen outside the bounds of rationality.

a “deconfliction idea” consisting in a big shunt-pipeline connecting Arctic Yamal

That does not work within the usage of the military term “deconflict”.

to avoid a potential clash or accident involving (nonenemy military operations, weaponry, etc.) in a particular combat area:
— to deconflict coalition forces from three nations.

to avoid such conflict in (a combat area):
— to deconflict airspace.

The best example of recent deconfliction is the arrangement between Israel and Russia in Syria. Israeli is striking Iranian & Iranian Hezbollah targets without accidental engagement with Russian forces. It has lasted for several years and there has been only one mistake large enough for us to hear about.

A proper deconfliction arrangement between Russia and Ukraine would define “where & when” forces will be present so there are no unscheduled contacts.

Anything involving a multiyear asset build would be part of a larger strategic peace processes, not deconfliction which is very tactical. The suggestion you report on does not seem promising at the strategic peace level.

PEACE 😇

https://en.topwar.ru/191921-v-chem-vsu-prevoshodjat-vs-rf.html

Looking at this article again…not the best. I’ve seen more informative rebuttals on twitter. This article is fanboy wishful thinking. I’m not a professional military man but it doesn’t take one to debunk some of that stuff.

Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Syria – yes, the outcome of any conflict was decided in the air.

As I mentioned before, stupid wishful thinking. After a massive 6 week air campaign over Yugoslavia…the Yugoslav army was mostly intact, to the surprise of the attackers. In Syria the air campaign was necessary but not sufficient for takeover. Taking the country still cost thousands of lives, the small Russian contingent lost several hundreds.

What is happening on the territory of modern Ukraine and the republics of Donbass is, excuse me, an exception. The conflict in the Donbas almost immediately began to resemble the First World War, its initial phase. Without aviation.

Excuse me, but who said that the Russian army would fight on the principles of a century ago?

This part is correct. There won’t be static trenches in a Ukrainian-Russian war.

In general, already at the beginning of the Second World War, infantry was planted on Tanks (we) or tanks and armored personnel carriers (USA, UK, Germany). That is, 80 years ago, commanders already realized that success depended on speed and maneuver.

Well, 80 years ago personal anti-tank weapons were not yet effective. RPG-2 didn’t enter service until 1954:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPG-2

The RPG-2 (Russian: РПГ-2, Ручной противотанковый гранатомёт, Ruchnoy Protivotankovy Granatomyot; English: “hand-held antitank grenade launcher”) is a man-portable, shoulder-fired anti-tank weapon that was designed in the Soviet Union. It was the first successful anti-tank weapon of its type, being a successor to the earlier and unsuccessful RPG-1.

Germans and Americans got anti-tank weapons but only at the end of the war.

The point is that now, unlike in World War II, infantry can easily take out tanks and APCs. Ukrainian infantry is flooded with effective anti-tank weapons.

do you know how many people from the valiant Armed Forces of Ukraine became fertilizers in the area of ​​Izvarin and Debaltsevo precisely because they did not have an armored personnel carrier or at least a truck?

Nor did they have javelins or British NLAWs. Nor were they trained in 2014-2015.

But they did have plenty of trucks and vehicles. They eventually tried to escape in a convoy of them and were blown up.

So the author is a rather misinformed fanboy.

it’s sad for me to imagine myself in the place of a Ukrainian semi-partisan, forced to drag everything on his hump and go into battle against a Russian soldier, behind whom an infantry fighting vehicle / armored personnel carrier with a machine gun and an automatic cannon still looms.

If the two would meet, the Russian APC would be blown up.

Yes, “any Ukrainian ATGM, even an old Soviet-made ATGM, can easily hit any other types of military equipment, trucks, and above all infantry fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers”. Undoubtedly, but only in one case: if Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles march like in a parade.

Why would they not be able to hit them in a field? Or from a window in a city? Or in a clearing or meadow in the woods?

The same heroic Ukrainian infantry, which will, without the use of armored vehicles, get close to Russian tanks at a distance of confident missile launch and destroy our tanks.

Ukrainian infantry can kill a tank from 2.5 km away, it’s not that close.

I’ll skim the rest:

And tall buildings are subject to adjustment – sorry, this is also not a problem from the word “absolutely”

I doubt that Russia is planning to level huge cities like Kharkiv and Kiev, killing 100,000s of people.

Well, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have three hundred “Bayraktars”, then we’ll talk. As long as there are ten of them, you can sleep peacefully.

It has 19 of them and is scheduled to get 24 more this year.

Air defense systems (by the way, quite ancient) of Ukraine are cut down by the Iskander OTRK or something simpler in the first place. As did all the “civilized armies” in the same Yugoslavia and Iraq.

Eventually, but Ukraine’s S-300PTs are much more advanced than what Iraq and Yugoslavia had.

The fact that there is no Air Force left in Ukraine is not our problem. The fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have cruise missiles, heavy flamethrower systems, the latest MLRS, artillery – well, this is again not our headache.

Ukraine has Vilkha systems (MLRS), and plenty of artillery. It lacks cruise missiles (other than one launcher and batch of Neptunes that has entered service, a battalion is scheduled to go online only in April). Air force is limited but not nonexistent. A few dozen planes. Ukraine does have hundreds of tanks and many APCS.

More on SJW Islam in America (1)

Tlaib’s campaign has paid \$147,000 to Unbought Power LLC, a political consulting and advocacy firm run by Rasha Mubarak, since March 2020. Tlaib’s leadership PAC, Rooted in Community Leadership, which lists Mubarak as a “treasurer,” has paid Unbought Power another \$23,000 since October 2020, according to Federal Elections Commission (FEC) filings reviewed by Fox News Digital.

Mubarak, a “Palestinian Muslim American community activist,” has a history of making anti-Israel statements online and calling Israel an “apartheid state.”

“These aren’t clashes— it’s an ongoing occupation. These aren’t evictions— they are forced expulsions,” Mubarak tweeted in May of last year. “This isn’t a conflict— it’s settler colonialism, it’s ethnic cleansing, it’s oppression, it’s apartheid.”

When will American Jews wake up and realize that Anti-Semitism is becoming a core DNC value?

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tlaib-spent-150k-consulting-anti-israel-activist-defund-police

I wonder if Goliath thought rocks were dangerous?

I believe that you and Aedib are actually not that far apart. Do you both agree that:

-1- Russia can win a War versus Ukraine
-2- Ukraine would inflict significant losses on Russia
-3- Russia would have huge problems post war

One can look at various scenarios for #1/#2, how quick & how bad. The U.S. is already out. There is no way to obtain the necessary House & Senate authorizations. BoJo’s administration is in disarray. France does not want to pick sides. The smaller European powers may have commitment. However, they posses small budgets, limited supplies, and virtually no logistical capability for transport.

Do you believe there is a credible scenario where there is enough reliable support from Europe for Ukraine to win militarily?

#3 is the real show stopper from Putin’s perspective. There is little to be gained in Ukraine beyond moving NATO away from Sevastopol Naval Base.
___

If both Ukraine and Russia are wise, they will stall rather then escalate. Once emotions fade, non-military options like Russian cash/resources compensation in return for a permanent realignment become much more palatable. There are peaceful WIN-WIN concepts, but they are not available while the predominant emotion is “outrage”. Time is needed for cooler heads to prevail.
___

As a linguistic aside, cooler heads to prevail, is a paraphrase. Does anyone know the original quotation and source?

It seems like something Sun Tzu would have espoused. Avoiding a battle of passion, only fighting based on practicality. “Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.”, is only half the concept. The opposing leadership and population must be in a frame of mind where they are willing to cross the bridge rather than burn it.

PEACE 😇

Orban, but “high IQ”

Well if you look superficially on Orban’s policies, he seems like a very skillful professional.

He has the one of the most neoliberal policies in Europe, including the lowest business tax rates in Europe, but has apparently managed to not alienate the working class voters.

He follows a kind of independent external policies, building strong alliances with Turkey, Israel, India and Azerbaijan outside of the EU, being leading part of Visegrad bloc inside EU (although perhaps not all of such media are fans of his relationship to Azerbaijan https://visegradinsight.eu/hungary-azerbaijan-blooming-relations-pragmatism/), and having appearance of relative modus vivendi with even Russia and China.

This is not something to be underestimated, that he could create an independent external policy, without appearing to have to pay anything for it. He can at least pretend to be neutral with Russia, while being a NATO member. He can have friendly relations with Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, while Western media claim he is “anti-Muslim”.

His skill with managing friendships in the external policy, makes you think of the incompetence you see from the current Polish government that seems to alienate many other governments.

On the other hand, if you Orban’s speeches, you have an impression he must be an uneducated idiot with Swiss cheese kind of holes all over his brain, as the texts are so bizarre and muddled.

So – there is at least a little ambiguity, it appears to me. His speeches are some of the stupidest texts I have read , while his actions look (to superficial observer, at least as myself) often strategic and intelligent.

German Reader wrote https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-173/#comment-5164781

These beautiful gun

Коренево, Курская обл pic.twitter.com/9pDliaZWMT

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 7, 2022

Eh, are you now turning into a weapons fetishist

we can be allowed to admire the industry and factories.

So they’re built by Uralmash? I had to google this, because I stupidly assumed it’s so of

Sorry I clipped quotes inside quotes inside quotes.

Lol it’s funny you almost said the right district of the city of Ekaterinburg in Russia. These guns are from Elmash, not Uralmash. But it’s a district in the same city, on the other side of the road from Uralmash.

If you want to see where these guns are made, if you pause at 26:38 in the video of someone driving in the city you can see the famous factory. In front of this factory, can you see the big picture of the guns (from a Victory Day parade) they build there.

This is one of many of the regional products of Elmash, which they are sending to the borders with Ukraine. But it’s a local product from the Elmash factory. Like Parma ham is from Parma. Well, in Elmash, they make this famous howitzer.

learned it’s a major machine factory in Yekaterinburg.

Uralmash is an important district (named originally for the famous factory) in the city of Ekaterinburg/Yekaterinburg (depending how you want to romanize this).

Ekaterinburg is the important hardworking city in Russia, which still actually builds things (unlike vampiric parasite cities like Moscow, that live on the blood of the rest of the country). I guess the equivalent city in Germany is Frankfurt.

–

Anyway I don’t know if people here like Russian mafia history? Since the 1990s, Uralmash has developed nation-wide reputation in the Russian world’s consciousness. People everywhere in the postsoviet countries know about this district. In Soviet times it was famous for Sverdlovsk in the positive, hardworking sense, and in the 1990s it became a little more “infamous”.

In the 1990s there had been a war of gangsters who control the industries there, with the gangsters in the centre of the city. The gangsters in Northern districts have massacred the gangsters which were controlling the centre of the city. 1993-1994 the Uralmash has basically raped the gangsters of Central.

Eventually 2004, there is a peace agreement between the mafia groups. There was a multiday mafia festival in the centre of the city, next to the opera house, and all the different mafia had a literally picnic with each other.

This is a kind of famous and surreal reality of 2004, that the mafia groups had a picnic with thousands of their soldiers in the centre of the city.

But nowadays, the situation has been very calm and safe. Many of the former mafia leaders have become legal businessmen and even local politicians.

I wrote a bit about this last year if anyone is interested in my amateur, not factchecked, writing about regional history of the recent decades. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dont-waste-time-on-hacks-look-at-numbers/#comment-4453498

–

I saw recently a dramatic film about gangster history in New York, called “Once upon a time in America” (1984), by the Italian director Sergio Leone.

I don’t know if anyone else here has seen this film? It’s a very interesting film, if you don’t dislike the 4 hour and ten minute runtime.

This historical process in the end of this film, where a former mafia becomes, a US Senator and American patriot, can feel a little similar.

Was Trudeau really in parliament or greenscreened in?

You are correct. Both sides would lose if Russia were to invade and try to occupy the country. Ukraine would lose more, but Russia would be in bad shape too.

Ironically if no war happens both countries come out ahead. Russia has benefited from a huge spike in gas prices, earning it billions of dollars. Ukraine has gotten over a billion dollars of military equipment. Ukraine’s military has glaring holes in stuff like air defense and planes, but now its experienced and trained infantry is probably fully equipped up to the top standards in the world.

LatW says: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-173/#comment-5165051

ed “stationary” villages. I wonder how long they can sit and sleep

(With proviso to my comment, that I am not knowledgeable about military topics, and I never even read any books about military topics. My knowledge extends to reading other netizens’ comments about the military buildup.)

Even if some of the soldiers are looking young, we know they are sending only professional contract soldiers there.

These are professionals,* which train all year like this, can perhaps stay for a long time in uncomfortable conditions, and will surely be very competent in operating the equipment.

While in Ukraine, I believe it could be mostly conscript soldiers.

Although if there would be a conflict, I don’t think the most significant issue, would be the difference in the quantity of soldiers, but the quantity of bombardment.

Russian bombardment of the Ukrainian forces, could be extremely large. It’s not even like America fighting Vietnam or Iraq, as these were thousands of kilometers from America, and they have to transport the equipment across oceans.

This is East Ukraine, in a location where much of the power of the Russian army can be focused, and would it be pre-planned, without surprises (unlike in Georgia in 2008 or Grozny in 1994/5, where forces were limited and surprised).

So, the Ukrainian positions could be surely bombarded in a very significant and destructive extent, if there would be such a pre-planned attack. Hopefully everything just a bluff and will be no war, as this optimistic scenario is still consistent with what we see so far.

–

* There are allegedly the most professional and elite forces arriving in the area. Netizens supposedly released video even of Kadyrov’s most elite special force unit, allegedly driving near Ukraine.

Some netizens are sceptical about the location and context of this video though, as the absence of ice, and they are arguing the release of the video can be psychological warfare. If everything is a bluff, then this could be a way to apply pressure to Ukraine by showing elite units driving allegedly nearby. It is the Kadyrov’s 141st Special Motorized Regiment of Internal Troops of Ministry of Internal Affairs.

+ видео pic.twitter.com/2U3N640Fs1

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 2, 2022

. It is the Kadyrov’s 141st Special Motorized Regiment of Internal Troops of Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Well not anymore in the Internal Troops, as that were dissolved in 2016.

They are cars belonging to Kadyrov’s most elite special forces group. The video is by someone in Crimea.

Arabs and Sephardi Jews are Semites. Ashkenazim are typically majority Semitic but substantial minority Italian genetically, per studies discussed by Jon Entine at the Genetic Literacy Project.

Anti-Semitic means a predisposition against Arabs and Sepphardic Jews and perhaps against Ashkenazi Jews. It does not mean anti-Jewish.

If you mean anti-Jewish, say anti-Jewish.

For better or worse, I doubt most Dems or Republican would be particularly alarmed if their party were to adopt anti-Jewish policies. Jews are a tiny and falling percentage of our population and really massively over-discussed and over-represented in our media, government, indoctrination entities like “schools”, and corporate power, out of all proportion to most normal people’s interest in them or in either helping or harming them. The self-worship is tiresome whether one generally likes, generally dislikes, or has no particular strong impression or generalization about Jews.

Per capita, Bandera support is more noticeable in Lviv and Wolyn than Kiev.

People are motivated to vote for Poroshenko for different reasons. BTW, his Roshen company had record sales over the past year in Russia. Zelensky’s Kvartol 95 is negotiating a new season on Russian State TV.

As some training advisers, Great Britain are sending a group elite soldiers to try to train Ukrainian soldiers (perhaps to teach them how to use technology like the anti-tank weapons). https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/over-100-british-elite-troops-26150282

Everyone knows that British special forces soldiers, are generally considered the most elite soldiers in the world today. These advisers they send to Ukraine are the famous SAS (“Special Air Service”) unit, who are famous for hostage rescue operations “during the 1980 Iranian Embassy siege”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Air_Service

But sending them to train Ukrainian forces in such a rapid time, what does it imply about the British military experts’ view about the training level of Ukrainian army? It perhaps reminds a little of their attitude to the Afghan National Army last year.

To send such a training group to Ukraine, might show they have believed there is a lack of professional training.

Ukraine’s infantry is not “up to the top world standards” nor will it ever be. It suffers from 8 years of mobilization which bears on them heavily. Their economy cannot support the number of people they press-ganged and cuts are performed on things as basic as food for conscripts, with a usual corruption on every level in the background. Their training is often done without using ammunition, because of the sheer number they already spent last 8 years and lost in several large warehouse fires. We’re not only talking about artillery, it’s also small arms now. I can’t imagine what their real morale is. Several hundred AT systems in mostly working condition will not help them. You’d need several thousand to completely arm even one of the defense sectors.

Zemmour hasn’t been polling well lately. He won’t get elected President this year, and probably won’t even make it to the runoff.

Nonetheless it can be argued that he is having some not inconsiderable success in shifting the “Overton Window”:

“And yet amid this electoral jockeying, Zemmour’s views are not just popular among the population, but increasingly reflect a turn within the French political establishment itself. This Zemmourization is most evident on the flashpoint issues Zemmour himself calls the “four I’s”: immigration, identity, insecurity, and Islam. France’s politicians, including its current government, are steering sharply to the right to adjust to this new political reality. While a Zemmour presidency still seems unlikely, his ideas will shape France’s politics for years to come.”

https://palladiummag.com/2022/02/02/france-is-living-in-zemmours-world/

“Zemmour most likely will not succeed in becoming the next President of France, but he has scored victories in stretching the parameters of acceptable debate to the point that even a centrist like current President Macron has been forced to adopt many of his ideas just to remain re-electable. Zemmour will most likely be the death-knell for the perpetually-failing Marine Le Pen, and open up a path for her very photogenic niece Marion Marechal, to run in 2027. She has recently refused to endorse her aunt, and has placed herself closer to Zemmour and his platform. France might not be ready for Eric Zemmour, but it is already living in his world.”

https://niccolo.substack.com/p/saturday-commentary-and-review-72

In Lviv probably, in Volyn probably not.

Or they are sending the best to train the Ukrainians because the infantry is decent enough that it wouldn’t benefit as much from regular trainers?

You failed to read my post. I wrote “now its experienced and trained infantry is probably fully equipped up to the top standards in the world.” Not that Ukraine had the world’s top infantry.

It’s a decently experienced and trained infantry, now fully equipped. It has plenty of small arms, mortars and artillery, and now thousands (not hundreds as you erroneously wrote) of the world’s best antitank systems. It’s also getting the best MANPADS such as Stingers now.

It sounds to me that Ukraine is really becoming more and more like a junior member of both NATO and the EU, de fato if not de jure? Seems that Putin’s aggressive actions towards Ukraine are actually pushing Ukraine faster and faster in this direction, something that is supposedly contrary to his actual motivation.

I was watching a very interesting video clip the other night, where a certain Ukrainian parliamentarian (sorry, I can’t remember his name) quite active in supporting civic movements interested in promoting the defensive organization of the civilian populace, felt that the real Russian aggression towards Ukraine wont begin until springtime, when a large portion of the Ukrainian people traditionally devote a lot of their time with gardening activities. He buttressed his argument by noting that there have already been a number of different start/stop periods of intense agitation regarding an imminent Russian invasion. People will supposedly get immune to these false calls of impending invasion, coupled with their attentions being more drawn towards planting their gardens, and will be caught off guard, and hence will be easier to subdue. His ideas actually made a lot of sense to me. Have you encountered any similar prognostications, what do you think?

…felt that the real Russian aggression towards Ukraine wont begin until springtime, when…

Re-scheduling again. Cry wolf (or cry bear).

Having military maneuvers of 130,000 military personnel poised right on Ukraine’s border, Russian advisors sent into Byelorus, a large contingent of navy vessels in the Black Sea, is all just a prelude to a falseflag on Russia’s part, “crying wolf (bear)” as you put it? Either Putin is rather stupid, or else he does indeed have something more ominous up his sleeve. A pretty long and expensive operation? I hope that it’s helping Russia’s mediocre economy to drift along……yes, higher petro chemical costs.

https://www.wired.com/story/ukraine-russia-cryptocurrency-donations-hacktivism/

Now this is weird. Also Bernie Sanders is lobbying for peace in the British press.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/08/we-must-do-everything-possible-avoid-enormously-destructive-war-ukraine

Well, in the story about the boy who cried wolf, the wolf did eventually actually come.

Anti-Semitic means a predisposition against Arabs and Sepphardic Jews and perhaps against Ashkenazi Jews. It does not mean anti-Jewish.

I understand the technicality that you do not like. I have expressed a similar grievance over the problematic usage of the term “Jew”. Is it religious practice? Or, something else — ethnicity, heritage, or ancestry?

Alas, your complaint is likely as futile as mine. The common usage exists, and there is no sign of it changing.

For better or worse, I doubt most Dems or Republican would be particularly alarmed if their party were to adopt anti-Jewish policies.

It would be anathema to the MAGA Republican can party. Shared Judeo-Christian values are a cornerstone that holds everything together. Large chunks of the party would ostracize anyone who lashed out against the followers of God.

The new guard SJW Islamic DNC wants tear down God and elevate Allah. The old guard Democrats are trying to fight back. Right now those who hate Judeo-Christian values, such as Ilhan Omar and Rashid Tlaib are ascending. Attempts to reign in their extremism have done poorly.

PEACE 😇

Yes, you are right, LOL.

By the way,

Minsk Agreements are “the only path to peace”– President Macron visits Kyiv to help de-escalate Ukraine crisis

https://www.intellinews.com/minsk-agreements-are-the-only-path-to-peace-president-macron-visits-kyiv-to-help-de-escalate-ukraine-crisis-234415/?source=ukraine

I think, Mr. Ze will refuse that option. I would be hanged by the Banderas if he tries to move forward Minsk-II.

France being France, appeasing the stronger party.

At the current stage, no Minsk-II means independence for the DLPR. Thing seems to be moving in that direction.

Recent Discussions on Russia-Ukraine and Russia-NATO Situations

Re: https://wabcradio.com/episode/michael-averko-2-9-22/

This segment could’ve easily run longer to further discuss instances like what led to “Russian aggression” in 2008 and 2014.

—————————————

Re: https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-debate/20220207-macron-the-mediator-can-france-help-calm-ukraine-crisis

A stark difference from much of French public opinion. It’s this kind of setting which serves to dissuade formal Russian participation at events like the Munich Security Conference.

The mainstream Russian view is outnumbered, while the neocon-neolib/anti-Russian slanted variant gets greater time with a biased host acting in the latter’s favor. Fyodor Lukyanov takes an academically diplomatic approach, which isn’t as effective as some others in this kind of a situation.

Concerning the above linked discussion, some diplomats like Sergey Lavrov can effectively bite back in reply to the manner exhibited by two of the three guests and the host. Put bluntly, this counter punching approach is along the lines of getting to the level of the other party, which relates better to those favoring that kind of delivery.

Melinda Haring repeats misinformation refuted in the below three articles:

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/07/18/getting-putin-intentions-wrong-again-on-russia-ukraine/

https://www.eurasiareview.com/24122021-deconstructing-john-batchelors-shows-on-russia-oped/

https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/01/17/diverse-russia-ukraine-discussion-leaves-room-for-additional-input/#more-38708

France being France, appeasing the stronger party.

The Donbass rebels aren’t stronger than the Kiev regime. Regarding that situation:

https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2022/01/17/diverse-russia-ukraine-discussion-leaves-room-for-additional-input/

Excerpt –

Ivaniuk and Lanoszka talk about the need for Russia to get directly involved in Russia-Ukraine talks over Donbass because of Russian support for the Donbass rebels. They omit the Kiev regime needing to sit down and talk with the Donbass rebels, in accordance with the signed Minsk Protocol.

Ivaniuk and Lanoszka suggestively downplay the Donbass rebel cause by noting the Russian support. During the American Revolutionary War, the colonists seeking secession benefited from foreign mercenaries and the involvement of France.

British history on the topic typically highlights that the American Revolutionary War was largely fought between loyalists and separatists among the colonists. The Donbass rebels are overwhelmingly from Donbass and some other parts of Ukraine’s Soviet drawn territory.

Relative to French public opinion, Macron is partly motivated by the Gaullist legacy of being a bit different from the Anglo-Americans. That difference includes looking for improved ties with Europe’s largest country.

It sounds to me that Ukraine is really becoming more and more like a junior member of both NATO and the EU, de fato if not de jure?

It is far short of NATO membership (de facto or de jure). There is no treaty obligation to provide mutual defense.

The material that has arrived so far would not change the outcome of a conflict with Russia. Ukraine would still lose. The additional resources would force Russia to accept higher casualties and make harder choices (e.g. more destructive preparatory bombardment before an advance).

The build up has made Ukraine’s military more capable, but it has not changed the strategic situation.

PEACE 😇

Like Ukraine really needs weapons over some other matters.

My three post limit for every three hours is coming up. This is a good read on what’s actually going on:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/02/09/the-phoney-war-over-ukraine/

One can certainly hope!

Oil near US\$ 100

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices

Brandon’s hysteria is helping the Russian budget and the “deplorable” American frackers. Law of unintended consequences.

NATO support is growing daily. If Russia does invade Ukraine, this will certainly help reinvigorate a rudderless NATO, even if it doesn’t get directly involved. Even Germany has been steadily increasing its anti invasion rhetoric. Don’t forget, Putler has also been rallying for a scaleback of NATO in already established countries (Poland, Baltic states Romania). Every day that goes bye is another day that Ukraine has to build up its defensive positions, for NATO to increase its buildup in the East. Ironically, everything that Putin wants seems poised to develop in the opposite position. He failed with his soft power projects within Ukraine, as he most certainly will will his barbaric club and bloody tactics there as well. Why expect more from a KGB thug?

Even Germany has been steadily increasing its anti invasion rhetoric

Everyone, except Not-The-President Biden, realizes there is not going to be a fight. Any one who wants to “talk tough” for a PR purpose now has the golden opportunity to jump in on the rhetoric with minimal risk and expenditure.

Putler has also been rallying for a scaleback of NATO in already established countries (Poland, Baltic states Romania).

And, Putin has not gotten anything. There is even an increase in Poland as Not-The-President Biden tries to be as publicly unhinged & destabilizing as possible. (1)

US troops began arriving in Poland this week, as part of a new Biden-authorized deployment of 3,000 extra troops to bolster Eastern European allies in face of Russian “aggression”.

It’s commonly estimated that some 30,000 American citizens are currently in Ukraine. Last month there was open contention between Kiev and Washington when the State Department began advising families of embassy staff to begin departing the country.

Ukrainian officials said the move was “premature” and unwarranted at that point, also at a moment the White House was claiming a Russian offensive was “imminent” – also which never materialized. The “imminent” claim too was deemed wildly inaccurate by Ukraine officials. Ukraine’s leaders have also been trying to keep the population from panicking when nothing has actually happened yet.

Ukraine is keeping the White House occupant from making trouble in-country. So what does the flailing regime try? Creating trouble from an adjacent country.

Could this be… Gasp… A distraction from the inflation his incompetence has caused at home?

he most certainly will [with] his barbaric club and bloody tactics there as well. Why expect more from a KGB thug?

Club? Thug? One can accuse Putin of many things but not indiscriminate violence. Targeted violence is different. You should phrase that as, KGB Killer with a skilled hand for the interrogation blade.

The statement “Putin is a Killer” was accurate, but very undiplomatic. Even if true, one does not say things like that in public about opposing heads of state.
____

Putin + Butler = Putler ???

Putin does not seem Jeeves-like to me. He is more of an Upstairs type, not Downstairs…

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/white-house-authorizes-us-troops-poland-spearhead-ukraine-evacuation-plan

I wonder if we should take people seriously who think that inbred tribal-supremacist desert fairy tales are literally true.

Who talked about “lashing out against THE followers of God”? I’m sure you didn’t mean that Jews are THE followers of God, because that seems to be what you wrote. That would be irrational, inaccurate, and obnoxious to all other theistic people, so I’m pretty sure that’s not what you meant.

Jews constitute less than one tenth of one percent of all purported theists in the world. And Muslims, whether you personally like them or agree with them, are in fact theists.

Most friends and family of ours are Republicans and “Independents” who voted for Trump. I can tell you from that little sample that some have been well trained to be inordinately obsessed with Jews and Israel and their interests, and to believe in nonsense called judeo-christianity. But more than half, thankfully, have not been so well trained and indoctrinated. For most Trump voters whom we know personally, especially the non-elderly ones, support for Israel is unimportant or an outright drawback in their minds (as in ours).

YOU can personally stop using a term that you know is inaccurate and deliberately misleading.

It’s very easy to accuse people of being “Anti-Jewish” rather than the nonsense “anti-Semitic.” Try it.

In turn, it is very easy for anyone to understand what you mean by “Anti-Jewish.” No excuse for perpetuating a misleading propaganda term when the accurate term is easier to convey and understand.

This is the official dope:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/07/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-scholz-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-at-press-conference/

PRESIDENT BIDEN: The first question first. If Germany — if Russia invades — that means tanks or troops crossing the — the border of Ukraine again — then there will be — we — there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.

Q But how will you — how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?

PRESIDENT BIDEN: We will — I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.

CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: (As interpreted.) Thank you very much for your question. I want to be absolutely clear: We have intensively prepared everything to be ready with the necessary sanctions if there is a military aggression against Ukraine.

And this is necessary. It is necessary that we do this in advance so that Russia can clearly understand that these are far-reaching, severe measures.

It is part of this process that we do not spell out everything in public because Russia could understand that there might be even more to come. And, at the same time, it is very clear we are well prepared with far-reaching measures. We will take these measures together with our Allies, with our partners, with the U.S., and we will take all necessary steps. You can be sure that there won’t be any measures in which we have a differing approach. We will act together jointly.

(Speaks in English.) And possibly this is a good idea to say to our American friends: We will be united, we will act together, and we will take all the necessary steps. And all the necessary steps will be done by all of us together.

Aye aye aye aye aye aye aye

I said Judeo-Christian. Judeo-Christians follow the same God whether they are Christian or Jewish. Lashing out at a follower of God is not acceptable. This is a staggeringly simple & obvious concept.

I do not know why anyone would have difficulty grasping that Judeo-Christians support other Judeo-Christians.

Muslims, whether you personally like them or agree with them, are in fact theists.

Yes. Muslims follow their deity Allah. However, their Allah is not the Judeo-Christian God. That is Taqiyya deception pushed by Muslims to trick Infidels (including Christians and Jews).

PEACE 😇

YOU can personally stop using a term that you know is inaccurate and deliberately misleading.

There is *nothing* misleading about it. I am using the commonly understood & shared definition.

excuse for perpetuating a misleading propaganda term when the accurate term is easier to convey and understand.

Why do you fear the most common & easily understood definition?

What is the goal of your demand for non-standard terminology? Is it part of some larger anti-Semitic propaganda agenda?

PEACE 😇

In the Singaporean prison system, there is a cart that goes around to supply each prisoner with a banana. In the high security prison, the prisoners reach out from a low slot just above the floor, to get their banana.

They would not do this in America, for it would be considered politically incorrect.

The new LotR show has an elf that people have nicknamed “Negrolas.”

Still NS2 is at risk. It should be nowadays an enormous battle inside the German establishment between the atlanticists (they want to kill the pipeline) and the industrialists (they see the pipeline as a lifeline necessary to keep the German competitively).
While Russia doesn’t’ attack, NS2 is alive. This is why atlanticists push the Ukrainian regime to attack the Donbass. They don’t care about Ukrainian lives. They still dream to isolate Russia. Ukraine is just a tool for them.
The final is open.

Let us wait to what the Russian Duma vote. I’m not sure there will be a formal recognition of independence. I think this option has a 50% likelihood and insisting on Minsk-II another 50%. What I see is that likelihood of “independence scenario” is steadily growing.

A paper estimates that the annual cost of crime in the US is in excess of \$3 trillion – that’s more than the nominal GDP of the UK or India.

Chinese dredgers are in Kamchatka, where China Communications Conctruction Company was awarded a contract to help build a trans-shipment terminal for the LNG coming from Russia's Arctic to Asian markets. BTW, Russia's main Pacific nuclear submarine base is nearby. https://t.co/oxeOpYyZMJ

— Artyom Lukin (@ArtyomLukin) February 1, 2022

Club? Thug? One can accuse Putin of many things but not indiscriminate violence. Targeted violence is different. You should phrase that as, KGB Killer with a skilled hand for the interrogation blade

.

Any former officer of the KGB could be considered a thug. Have you heard Putler repent for anything nefarious that he’s been involved with? The earlier part of his thuggish “presidency” was marked by the disappearance of many (scores) of reporters and journalists who met their untimely deaths at the presumed hands of Putler.

It’s not Putin + Butler = Putler

Silly,

It’s Putin + Hitler = Putler

Got it?

Welcome back!

Yamal: was surprised to learn that the plan is to power it with wind turbines. IMO, seems kind of woke. Guess it must be a move to try to win over the Greens in Europe.

Inflation: personally seen the cost of some items rise by about 40% year over year. Seen roast beef >\$50.

Welcome back!

I have returned!

ShadowStats did their CPI adjustments wrong (it applies the cumulative difference between old & new CPI indices annually), but the new CPI understates housing inflation a lot.

This, or Gosplan-style systemic manipulation and falsification.

Are you suggesting that he claim that Le Pen and Macron are in cahoots?

Marechal has said that she was “leaning” towards Zemmour; but she hasn’t clearly endorsed him.

She is in a tricky position. She doesn’t have much of an infrastructure behind her, and I doubt that Le Pen or Zemmour would be enthusiastic about her using theirs.

Any former officer of the KGB could be considered a thug. Have you heard Putler repent for anything nefarious that he’s been involved with?

Hmmm… Perhaps we have a definitional difference. I think of a thug as someone who uses force as a first resort, often crudely. Alternate terms, such as operative, are more suitable for those who use force in a deft and skillful manner when required. Both thugs & operatives can be nefarious.

marked by the disappearance of many (scores) of reporters and journalist

Were they inaccurate, corrupt traitors like the current crop of CNN and MSNBC propagandists? Look at what George IslamoSoros is up to right now: (1)

Those who have doubted Hungarian and Polish politicians’ claims about an ongoing smear campaign against the conservative governments need only to listen to recently leaked video footage of the Open Society Foundations’ former regional director. In a Skype recording, Slovakian-born Andrej Nosko is seen speaking to an unidentified reporter about how foreign journalists are manipulated into adopting the left-wing opposition media’s reports as the only valid viewpoint, which is then the only narrative about Hungary and Poland that is presented to their international audiences.

“With great power comes great responsibility.” — Voltaire. (∆)

The idea of benevolent reporters, wielding earned authority, predates cable TV and the internet. The era of Edward R. Murrow is over. Today’s reporters have abandoned the duty of responsibility. I would compare them to plague rats, except that would be unfair to the rats…. And, probably unfair to the plague virus.

It’s not Putin + Butler = Putler

It’s Putin + Hitler = Putler

I was joking, of course.

PEACE 😇
__________

(1) https://rmx.news/hungary/leaked-footage-reveals-how-soros-funded-osf-manipulates-public-opinion-about-hungary-and-poland/

(∆) Popularized in comic form via Ben Parker, uncle of Peter Parker / Spider-Man.

Hmmm… Perhaps we have a definitional difference. I think of a thug as someone who uses force as a first resort, often crudely. Alternate terms, such as operative, are more suitable for those who use force in a deft and skillful manner when required. Both thugs & operatives can be nefarious.

Supporting hyperlinks at the below linked article:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/01022022-biden-administrations-flawed-stance-on-russia-oped/

Excerpt –

When it comes Russia and some other topics, projection is something American political elites like Panetta typically exhibit. While personally preferring a civil approach, I’m reminded of my view (at the 17 minute mark) that referring to Vladimir Putin as a bully, is on par with calling Joe Biden the same. Likewise with saying Volodymyr Zelensky is a twerp and the former president of Estonia (Toomas Hendrik Ilves) is a bigoted scumbag. (Stressing my preference against making these type of characterizations and simultaneous objection to the hypocrisy some exhibit on what is and isn’t ad hominem.)

Recall how Biden treated some Americans during the 2016 US presidential campaign. Specifically, his treatment of a senior citizen and a young woman in verbally confrontational instances. Note Biden confidently bragging about how he threatened to cut off aid from Ukraine, if it didn’t fire the attorney investigating the Ukrainian firm Biden’s son was working for.

Biden has supported US wars abroad. His Russia-Ukraine takes bring to mind that bullies are inclined to exaggerate a given circumstance to seek confrontation. Such people are known for making insulting threats beforehand, in an effort which serves to further provoke a confrontational situation. With inaccurate innuendo, bullies are prone to attacking those they disagree with.

This last point touches on Biden calling Putin a killer, when prodded by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. In a not too distant CSPAN aired discussion, former CIA analyst Joseph Weisberg, delves into the projection that some American elites make towards their Russian counterparts. (Weisberg is the creator of the FX TV aired series “The Americans“.

Yugoslavia NATO

This 1999 bombing in Yugoslavia by NATO, was a relatively lower level of bombardment, by careful, human rights following countries, to change the behavior of Balkans countries.

I would doubt this can be relevant to understand what would happen if there is pre-planned war between Russia and Ukraine, in which there would likely be a vast bombardment of the Ukrainian military positions.

There is already indication of a vast power which has been prepared on the borders of Ukraine in terms of artillery, and there will be significant proportion of the Russian air force available. This is not a conflicts thousands of kilometers from home, but directly next to Russia, even where the majority of the Russian military can be potentially focused from within the territory of the home.

air strikes were much less effective than had been assumed

But many of us were watching the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict of October 2020.

Azerbaijan doesn’t even have an air force with functioning aviation or bombers, but mainly only drones which fire relatively very small munitions, although with a high level of accuracy.

Hundreds of Armenians were in being killed by the drones for every daily YouTube video. After a few weeks, their army has begun to collapse, with many thousands of dead and injured soldiers.

Now, compared Azerbaijan’s very small drones, with the Russian aviation and artillery. There is the world’s second largest bombing capacity, and (unlike America in Vietnam or Iraq), forces directly next to the border.

Syria, Russia still managed to lose a couple hundred men despite its very limited operation

There was a small fraction of the airforce, thousands of kilometers from home, where every munition has to arrive by boats, through Bosphorus. And even this smaller part of the Russian aviation killed 6000 Syrians in some months.

Ukraine will be in the range of home airports of the Russian airforce.

Su-34 in their home airbases near Voronezh have enough range to fly over Lvov and Chernovtsy, while Kiev or Kharkov close enough to be like local shopping journeys for them.

This is not like flying from an isolated airbase in Syria.

Some counter-sovok:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TsarPress/status/1491474263529988103

Were they inaccurate, corrupt traitors like the current crop of CNN and MSNBC propagandists?

You’re an intelligent and literate individual. Read for yourself and make up your own mind:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_Russia

Nothing like this in the US. Could it all be just coincidental?

It sounds like Zemmour wants to be the new de Gualle, and “unite the Right”.

If recent polls are to be believed (and they probably should be), he won’t get his chance this time around.

Perhaps, years from now, Marechal will be the one to unite the Right.

I’m long on Marechal. It’s just that the next few years will be tricky for her.

Macron will get re-elected. Perhaps Marechal will be the one to rebuild the Right opposition.

https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/zemmour-2022-macron-2017-pourquoi-marion-marechal-n-est-pas-francois-bayrou_2167378.html

In Belgorod, “2S7M” 203-mm artillery guns were visible from 0:16 in the video.

These are the most powerful artillery guns in the world that function according to journalists

Весела Лопань 07.02.2022 pic.twitter.com/EJIc9n0WkC

— 4emberlen (@4emberlen) February 9, 2022

–

A Chechen unit (national guard with BTR-82) were seen in Belgorod region.

05.02.2022. Старий Оскол. Зверніть увагу на емблему та кольори прапора Чечні на початку колони. Техніка росгвардії: бронеавтомобіль "Патруль", броньовані вантажівки КамАЗ-5350 із захищеним модулем, БТР-82А та ін. https://t.co/vsb9wLdY05 pic.twitter.com/i9r4V9135P

— Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (@Idzanagi4) February 10, 2022

These Chechen bearded units are openly driving near the borders with Ukraine. There was already Kadyrov’s most elite special forces unit driving in Crimea.

On inflation, my personal observation has also been that the official stats are low compared to reality.
I have no clue what the methodology is but I would suspect that as with unemployment numbers or the debt there are ways to massage the numbers in a palatable direction.

To Yellowface Anon’s point, I wouldn’t discount some systemic manipulation of the numbers.
The housing market seems like a massive bubble to me right now. Values are insane as well as build costs, yet people are continuing to pile on. I think that demonstrates a certain lack of faith in the system since I’ve seen evidence that a lot of people are accelerating plans to get into their preferred property/ housing situation since they are afraid that future events will foreclose opportunities. They are willing to overpay on the chance that they will not have another opportunity.

The housing market leverage is as high now as it was in 2008 (according to some). Here is the Case Schiller index:

Maharaja Ranjit Singh also gave his French generals much more room to bring in cultural tokens from their homeland – Allard even used the French national flag for his troops. Jacquemont noted Ranjit Singh was a fan of this flag which thus “saw liberal usage in the kingdom”. pic.twitter.com/bbF7Y1C9oQ

— ਜੋਧਸਿੰਘ (@YungBhujang) February 8, 2022

ਸਭ ਬਹੀਰੀਏ ਧੰਨ ਧੰਨ ਆਖੈਂ । ਹਮ ਜਿਵਾਏ ਚੜ੍ਹਤਸਿੰਘ ਭਾਖੈਂ ।
The entire caravan [of Sikh populace] blessed and thanked him, saying, "We live because of Charatsingh!"

Panth Prakash (early 1800s), Author: Ratan Singh Bhangu
pg 348 Dhillon, pg 515 Kulwant Singh

— Jvala Singh (@jvalaaa) February 10, 2022

ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

A slam dunk regarding how the likes of the CPJ review the matter of journalists who’ve died in Russia:

http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=17074&IBLOCK_ID=35

A somewhat amusing comment from the Kiev regime’s UN ambassador:

https://www.rt.com/russia/548822-illegal-un-spot-ukraine/

The above piece on challenging Russia’s permanent UN Security Council status, doesn’t mention that post-Soviet Russia paid all of the Soviet debt. Never mind Russia being far more globally significant than the other former Soviet republics.

In Soviet times, the Ukrainian SSR had its own UN delegation. Post-Soviet Ukraine is considered its successor, despite not having paid Ukrainian SSR debt. Rhetorically put to the level of the Ukrainian UN ambassador, Russia should’ve the UN seats of all of the former Soviet republics – stressing that I don’t advocate for this to happen.

Someone is getting schooled:

https://www.rt.com/russia/548822-illegal-un-spot-ukraine/

Are they smart enough to learn?

“slam dunk”??

I don’t have the time to read this “analysis” in depth right now (getting ready for work), but will when I return later today. I did skim the article though, and it looked quite unconvincing.

If I were trying to put myself in the shoes of Chinese, I would be fearful of woke athletes infiltrating. Eileen Gu supports BLM.

I would bet that the Chinese like the optics of “defecting” athletes more than they are worried about Gu’s support for BLM etc.

Clearly the Chinese would never tolerate such sentiments expressed by their own native athletes, and someone like Gu and her opinions are unlikely to carry much weight in China.

Yugoslavia is very close to NATO. Putin insists Ukrainians are a type of Russian. Are you sure he will be a lot less careful about Ukrainian lives as NATO was about Serbian lives? Will Putin kill 10,000s or even 100,000s of Ukrainians (primarily in the East, which means percentage of ethnic Russians)?

That is what I’m seeing IRL, so I wouldn’t doubt the accuracy of that graph.

The whole thing feels deeply like a bubble, though unlike in 2008 there are so many other factors like inflation, social unrest and distrust, Covid which also play into it and will amplify the effects when the bubble finally pops. Hell, American society writ large feels like a bubble right now.

My money is on the fallout being massive when the bubble on the housing market and other sectors bursts. My gut is that it will make 2008 look like peanuts.

The thing is it is impossible to get an accurate number right now because of the large % of people who have not made payments since the corona panic began and haven’t been foreclosed/evicted. My impression is nobody has the backbone to say how bad it is. Hunch. Intuition.

I made a joke to my landlord before I left California about when they were going to let her bosses evict the deadbeats. She didn’t laugh and I wouldn’t either if I wasn’t getting the flux out of CA. Looking back my joke wasn’t all that funny. I have hung out with too many Russians. : )

https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1491789475034251269?s=20&t=REjnpo1C2kts82e2mHUzBA

[MORE]

Translation: it debunks the BS you’d like to believe as true.

Wrong link. On the pathetic Liz Truss:

&

https://www.rt.com/russia/548949-truss-recognize-sovereignty-regions/

Macron in Moscow Accepts Need for Security Guarantees, Admits ‘Past Mistakes’, Casts Doubt on Ukraine NATO/EU Membership, Supports ‘Full’ Implementation of Minsk Accord

Macron pretending to be De Gaulle. I think he intends to bit some electorate of Zemmour.

The Chinese trolled her about the islands of the South China Sea and the Malvinas “or as you call them…Falklands”. She is an easy target.

Ukrainians are a type of Russian

They are from a common sense view. Although this doesn’t have much of a particular political implication.

Are you sure he will be a lot less careful about Ukrainian lives as NATO

I think it would be very likely, if there would be a real pre-planned war, that Ukrainian forces will be destroyed by artillery and aviation bombardments, without any special sympathy for their human rights.

If you only want to compare military events of 1999 within the Russian Federation and within Yugoslavia, then estimates of the deaths around Grozny are many times more deaths than in Yugoslavia. These are deaths of Russian citizens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia

If there is a serious, pre-planned war (i.e. if this is not a bluff), the ideal scenario (we should be hoping), will be that Kiev concedes rapidly, before many people are killed.

Putin insists Ukrainians are a type of Russian.

We only can infer that a (common sense) belief they are the same as Russians, would create even more disinterest for the “value” of their lives from these politicians. I mean, what nationalities in the world, do you think they feel the most contempt to?

–

Anyway, perhaps this is optimism converting me to an idiot, but I am still half guessing this military buildup can be a bluff like in previous years. It is a larger military buildup than in previous years, so it creates this sense of uncertainty. Like a good bluff, it can be consistent with both scenarios – it might be preparation for a real war, it might still be a bluff.

Of course, nobody can know the answer whether this is a bluff or a real military preparation, outside of a small circle. The same elements which would make it a successful bluff, will also be involved if there is a real invasion.

I would bet that the Chinese like the optics of “defecting” athletes more than they are worried about Gu’s support for BLM etc.

The Chinese might not mind Gu’s support of BLM: “See, the USA is racist.” It might even help China (at least a little bit) in Africa.

China would be a lot more concerned if Gu supported Tibet, East Turkistan, or Taiwan.

See refuses to answer questions about those controversies.

https://qz.com/2120549/stop-asking-winter-olympian-eileen-gu-about-her-political-views/

There is no shortage of idiots in the British cabinet.

The author of the piece’s biggest gripe is that there may be a double standard used in comparing the number of journalists that have been eclipsed between different countries. He feels that deaths attributed to car crashes, suspicious suicides or sudden illnesses for their work, are unfairly attributed to Russian statistics and not to other countries, thus bumping up Russian numbers. Even if you were to detract these numbers, that the author has carefully omitted doing, you still would come up with extremely high numbers. He doesn’t even consider that those that died in these cases, could have very well been eliminated using these categories as covers. In either case, being a journalist in Russia has been a very dangerous profession.

starting at 4:51 we can hear the Godfather stating that he is a “very suspicious man” and that if any tragic early death attributed to a “police bullet, suicide and most any other strange situation” befalls his remaining son, he will not believe it and exact his rightful revenge. Suspicious deaths of journalists should likewise be subject to deeper scrutiny and verification, and not accepted at face value.

test

Rumor is that Biden has hired some super-gay (tranny?) to be a deputy in nuclear waste disposal.

The place where I would exile the super-gays would have only green energy.

They are from a common sense view. Although this doesn’t have much of a particular political implication.

Are the Irish a sort of British? The 20th century answered this question, but in the 21st Ireland has gone and abolished itself.

I think it would be very likely, if there would be a real pre-planned war, that Ukrainian forces will be destroyed by artillery and aviation bombardments, without any special sympathy for their human rights.

The plan can only work with a simultaneous PRC attack on Taiwan. The West could not fight on two fronts. But neither RF or PRC has created a political crisis in UK/ROC to justify an invasion. Some locals would need to be recruited as collaborators.

That the Chinese back Argentina’s worthless claim, is an indicator of Anti-White Racism.

I suppose that in the US, sports was a lag factor to government ideology, which was the important thing.

It’s been interesting to hear of this secret report that dubs China a “racist superpower.” I don’t know what to make of it, but based on the date I am hearing (2013), the man who composed it did not see Wolf Warrior 2.

That Stalin got 3 UN seats can only be described as the product of subversion in the US.

Certainly Texas should have deserved its own UN delegation.

\$90 Oil Offers The Best-Ever Economics For US Shale

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/90-oil-offers-best-ever-economics-us-shale

It’s been interesting to hear of this secret report that dubs China a “racist superpower.” I don’t know what to make of it,

The late Oles Buzina and the media outlets in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine which have been censored.

Russia exhibits a noticeably more vibrant opposition media than what exists in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine.

Was hoping it meant something positive. Like the ability to reach across the globe and turn SJWs into racists – but, then again, Obama’s pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, seemed to use the term in a different context (when referring to the US.)

The Dog Aging Project is gathering a vast open-source dataset about canine health and longevity. One of their most intriguing avenues of inquiry will analyze the DNA of exceptionally long-lived dogs, the ‘super-centenarians’ of the dog world.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/02/220202111843.htm

They should also study smart dogs, but I guess it would be hard to get federal grants for that.

Irish a sort of British?

No because Irish have a significantly different culture, opposite personality to English people, different majority religion, different body language and accent, different ethnicity, more than a century of independence as a separate country.

There is a bit of “Ship of Theseus” kind of meaninglessness to national boundaries (nations themselves very artificial), but by any normal definition Irish are mapping distinctive and different groups from other British nationalities.

On the other hand, most of Ukraine is part of the Russian Empire, all part of the USSR, most of their regional accent are not much distinguishable from Southern Russian accent, their mentality, humor, bodylanguage, etc, it’s all the same. They have 30 years of nominal political independence from Moscow, but even less years of really de facto independence. In terms of blood, their majority nationalities are also the same nationality as neighboring regions in the Russian Federation.

What are the political implications of this? I don’t think much. If people living in Ukraine want to have self-determination and independence, create a different culture and national mythology, this is their prerogative. As Uruguayans don’t have to justify their choice to be independent from Argentina. It’s probably even healthy for Ukraine, especially considering so many dystopian problems in the parent country. It shouldn’t have been difficult for Ukraine to create a more healthy culture, politics, legal and investment climate, but in reality, they have been failing to develop as much as the rest of the postsoviet space (excluding the Baltic states which have benefits of being inside EU, and having always most educated populations even in the Russian Empire). A lot of their politics and education is based on historical distortions, although considering nightmare of the history it is not unpredictable that they would do this.

Russians love their gallows humor. Although that seems more true of the Russians that I know that came out of the late Soviet era and the 90’s. The younger ones much less so. I suppose to get through the 90’s one might need a dark sense of humor!

I expected early on in the pandemic that foreclosures would be huge and a lot of rental real estate would be snapped up by private equity firms. The last foreclosure protections expired Dec. 31st and foreclosures have still been modest so this doesn’t seem to have happened. I’m not sure exactly what did happen though. Perhaps enough CovidGovGibs were handed out to cover the bulk of the losses? I know from various investigations which I’ve read and from what my accountant has to say that there was a ton of fraud and semi-fraud in the PPP. Maybe the landlords made enough bank on those programs to cover rental losses. Those losses may have something to do with skyrocketing rental prices as landlords may be trying to make up for lost income.

I heard today that the government claims the record inflation is “temporary”. On a geologic time scale this is certainly true, but I think it’s here to stay for the foreseeable future. I think it’s like a flywheel. Once enough prices rise and businesses adjust for those costs then it takes on a momentum which maintains the increase. On my end, so many things have gone up that I can’t imagine how those would walk back.

Of course the “temporary” sentiment comes from a government that denied that there was any inflation a few months ago, even though it was crystal clear it was happening. Guessing that it’s worse than it is seems like a safe bet!

I hadn’t seen that about China being a “racist superpower”. Thanks, that seems like it will be amusing. Of course the Chinese are quite correct that multiculturalism is a sickness that has consumed the West.
I always thought of the Chinese as being more culturally chauvinist rather than racist. Their feelings of superiority seem more based in culture than biology. Anyone have any ideas on that? I guess we need Yellowface Anon to chime in on that one.

The place where I would exile the super-gays would have only green energy.

The glowing green kind of energy?? How do you think they end up becoming super-gays in the first place; by being bitten by genetically altered dildos?!?

The late Oles Buzina and the media outlets in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine which have been censored.

Well, it’s about time, I’ve missed the “Averkoisms” that you were once famous for producing. To your credit, you’ve not managed to produce one in quite a while. Here’s a perfect example of one, this sentence makes absolutely no sense. 🙂

Russia exhibits a noticeably more vibrant opposition media than what exists in Kiev regime controlled Ukraine.

Why don’t you really make a statement and show that more journalists have died under mysterious circumstances within Ukraine than in Russia*? I dare you, I double dare you!!

*Hint: it can’t be done. 🙂

“Smersh” MLRS rocket systems moving, from the people on the Twitter website who collect YouTube and TikTok videos.

09.02.2022. Курськ. РСЗВ "Смерч". 4 одиниці ракетно-пускових установок 9А52-2, 4 одиниці транспортно-заряжаючих машин 9Т234−2 https://t.co/2bdBylaNwQ pic.twitter.com/Z2GXsPerTf

— Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (@Idzanagi4) February 10, 2022

Below netizens of Twitter are saying this might be a special operations unit moving.

09.02.2022. Пікапи Toyota Hilux зі складу підроздвлів Сил спеціальних операцій(ССО) РФ. Смоленськ. https://t.co/N6rbvIJ3tn pic.twitter.com/sDKnS6zsJs

— Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (@Idzanagi4) February 10, 2022

Good spot by @Idzanagi4. These indeed do look like tan Viking MRAPs and Toyota Hiluxes used by Russia's elite SSO (Russia's version of JSOC) in Smolensk. The FSB Special Purpose Center uses black Viking MRAPs, but I've only ever seen the tan ones in service with SSO. https://t.co/Y2mXh9cSXR pic.twitter.com/wsHQbeRHa1

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 10, 2022

Landing ships arriving in Sevastopol

Заход отряда больших десантных кораблей ВМФ России в Севастополь. pic.twitter.com/K8hvTgHZfl

— Станислав Валерьевич (@PussyRobbery) February 10, 2022

I think it would be very likely, if there would be a real pre-planned war, that Ukrainian forces will be destroyed by artillery and aviation bombardments, without any special sympathy for their human rights.

Ukrainian forces will be conveniently waiting around in open fields. They will either be scattered in forests (where they will not be so easy to find and where it will take too many missiles to get them all) or fortified in urban areas with cover.

If you only want to compare military events of 1999 within the Russian Federation and within Yugoslavia, then estimates of the deaths around Grozny are many times more deaths than in Yugoslavia. These are deaths of Russian citizens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia

Chechens are not “Russians” though.

Can you imagine Russia doing to people it considers to be Russians what they did to Chechens? Turning Kharkiv into another Grozny? Russian nationalists insist that Kiev is the “mother of Russian cities.” Wil they obliterate it? Destroy the famous Monastery of the Caves (still under the Moscow Patriarch)?

Not completely impossible, but unlikely.

Ukraine is also conducting some military exercises, outside Kharkiv:

https://censor.net/ru/photo_news/3315442/podrazdeleniya_92yi_ombr_provodyat_v_harkovskoyi_oblasti_takticheskie_ucheniya_s_boevoyi_strelboyi_fotoreportaj

Some (perhaps not influential) American politicians are very skeptical about supporting Ukraine.

Warmongers argue that we must protect Ukraine because it is a “democracy.” But they’re lying. Ukraine isn't actually a democracy. To hold onto power, Ukraine's president shut down the 3 TV stations that criticized him, and imprisoned… pic.twitter.com/HRgPS1N4Y3

— Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 (@TulsiGabbard) February 10, 2022

Also (Rupert Murdoch’s) most popular cable news program in America presented a similar skeptical attitude.

Tucker: Why is it disloyal to side with Russia but loyal to side with Ukraine? pic.twitter.com/SIWL96lgWo 01

— Tomthunkit™ (@TomthunkitsMind) February 8, 2022

(But Rupert Murdoch’s friend) Boris Johnson has given 2000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the recent days, perhaps it might be his maximum action.

Ukraine asks for nothing except for peace and sovereignty, able to choose its own destiny and seek its own alliances like any other independent state.

Britain has always stood for these principles and we will not flinch now. pic.twitter.com/QB6mDcmNec

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 10, 2022

Chechens are not “Russians” though.

I would say this has no relevance for how much their human rights were respected, or not respected, by the leaders. Especially considering events of preceding weeks, months and years, where there were cynical policies, with the same people who are deciding today .

imagine Russia doing to people it considers to be Russians what they did to Chechens?

Political respect can be lower for Russians than for other nationalities even in the Russian Federation.

I don’t think this will translate anything particular to Ukraine, except that there would be no intrinsic softness to their military forces on such a basis. The degree of kindness will depend on the tolerance for international condemnation or practical considerations (e.g. if there would be a need for popular support from the local citizens within Ukraine after a conflict, or desire to reduce partisan support).

Wil they obliterate it? Destroy the famous Monastery of the Caves (still under the Moscow Patriarch)?

Not completely impossible, but unlikely.

No, I think they would focus on destroying the conventional forces of the Ukrainian army, not destroying civilian areas or heritage sites.

In such a conflict, they would try to avoid destruction of civilian areas, for the motive to reduce international condemnation, or to reduce a motive for potential partisan actions in the future. Perhaps also precision weapons will allow more accurate bombardment, with less effect on the civilian area, than were seen in 1999-2000.

Still, this can be a nightmare, in which thousands of people would meaninglessly be killed. In October 2020, Azerbaijan had focused only shooting on the conventional forces of the Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh (not in Armenia) with light munitions from drones, mostly precision weapons. And over 4000 Armenian soldiers were killed in some weeks.

If all this military buildup is not a bluff, then perhaps a war would be a limited operation in terms of territory, and it would try to avoid conflict in cities. But even such limited conflicts can be extremely brutal in terms of the deaths, as we saw watching small fighting between Armenia-Azerbaijan in 2020 with over 7000 people killed within just over a month.

His skill with managing friendships in the external policy, makes you think of the incompetence you see from the current Polish government that seems to alienate many other governments.

Oh yes. They’re even managing to piss me off (and I used to be somewhat pro-Polish, which was probably naive) with this bs they’re now doing:

Poland has cut German language classes for its German minority from 3 to 1 a week.

It comes following Germany’s failure to live up to an agreement from 1991 that obliges reciprocity in minority education.

The money saved will be sent to private Polish schools in Germany instead pic.twitter.com/whnoJkSwcp

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) February 6, 2022

Which also makes it clear that claims Poland is sooooooo afraid of Russia are total bs, when they feel they can afford to engage in such needless provocations.

lol

I guess the equivalent city in Germany is Frankfurt.

Frankfurt is more known for finance (it’s also a city where ethnic Germans are well on the way to being a minority, if they already aren’t). Thanks for your informative comments about Uralmash.

I saw recently a dramatic film about gangster history in New York, called “Once upon a time in America” (1984), by the Italian director Sergio Leone.

I don’t know if anyone else here has seen this film? It’s a very interesting film, if you don’t dislike the 4 hour and ten minute runtime.

This historical process in the end of this film, where a former mafia becomes, a US Senator and American patriot, can feel a little similar.

I’ve seen it. Liked the first part (set in 1919 iirc) when they were just youths, but didn’t enjoy the latter part. May be a bit silly, but I felt intense revulsion for the characters when they switched babies for fun at the hospital. Probably a problem with gangster movies in general, I can’t relate to such people (though usually such movies end badly for the protagonists, so there’s a “crime doesn’t pay” message).
The part about one of the gangsters becoming a senator seemed unrealistic to me and detracted from the story. Don’t think something like this has ever happened (Kennedys may have had ties to organized crime, but weren’t real gangsters themselves as far as I know).

Would be interesting to see average height of banias, i have a feeling they might be less than UC average. Though imo, the greatest 'height' potential lies in patoralist groups imo (rors, jats etc.)

— Harsh Kashyap (@harsh123459876) February 6, 2022

A lot of Southerners had predicted that even the slightest toleration of blacks in sports and media would spell the doom of the racial caste-system. It normalized black people and broke their principles.

— Aryāṃśa (@arya_amsha) February 5, 2022

https://www.theroot.com/caste-football-takes-up-the-cause-of-white-athletes-1790881192

This looks more like the fault of the German government, though it is certainly a petty move. Is this German minority in Poland more socially conservative than its shitpile cousins across the Oder?

The great failing of RW nationalists is that they fight each other, while liberals will work together across national, creedal and racial lines.

Ideally this would be an easy way for AFD to embarass the government, but I have my doubts they’d pick this up.

This looks more like the fault of the German government, though it is certainly a petty move.

No, it isn’t, Poland’s claims are a fake grievance. As I understand it, they’re basically asking for Poles in Germany (overwhelmingly recent immigrants of the last 30-40 years, so not like Sorbs with a long-established presence in a certain territory) to be given the status of a national minority with corresponding privileges. If Germany conceded that, there would be nothing to stop Turks and other immigrant communities from demanding the same, so it would massively accelerate Germany’s multiculturalization and fragmentation.

Is this German minority in Poland more socially conservative

It doesn’t matter what they are, Polish nationalists will encourage unhinged hatred of any kind of German, which becomes totally clear when you read their comments on the net. There is no basis for cooperation with such people.
Anyway, if Polish right-wingers feel confident enough to play such chauvinist games and think it will never impact Poland’s status in the EU, good luck is all I can say, they’re going to need it.

Ukrainian forces will be conveniently waiting around in open fields. They will either be scattered in forests (where they will not be so easy to find and where it will take too many missiles to get them all)

I don’t think there will be an invasion, but if we see Smerch with fuel warheads and Buratino, they have this tactical in mind. These nasty fuel munitions are thought for obliterate scattered infantry and infantry dug in trenches.
Anyway, I think most of the deployment is for negotiation purposes and for deter a Ukrainian attack to the Donbass.

Joe Biden has tapped an LGBTQ+ activist, drag queen “pup” fetishist to be the deputy assistant secretary of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition in the Energy Department’s Office of Nuclear Energy.https://t.co/40jDLjCj5G

— American Greatness (@theamgreatness) February 10, 2022

Do you feel optimistic about America?

If Germany conceded that, there would be nothing to stop Turks and other immigrant communities from demanding the same, so it would massively accelerate Germany’s multiculturalization and fragmentation.

Wouldn’t that be beneficial from a German nationalist PoV? In other words, assimilation will dilute the German bloodlines with other ethnicities. Unless you think that Germans are equivalent to Balkanoids or Slavs (I don’t).

I always found it odd that the most strident nationalists here in Sweden insist on assimilation and reject multiculturalism, even if the latter will aid in strengthening a separate racial identity for ethnic Swedes and arguably slow intermingling.

I don’t particularly care about any of these things, but thinking about it logically many of their stated positions don’t make much sense IMO.

Anyway, if Polish right-wingers feel confident enough to play such chauvinist games and think it will never impact Poland’s status in the EU, good luck is all I can say, they’re going to need it.

What status are we talking about? Poland is already the whipping boy of the EU and hated by liberals. Right-wing nationalists are notoriously terrivle at co-operating, so there was never much hope there to begin with.

Poland is a fundamentally weak country which has near-zero maneuver space. Its primary function is to be a useful cheap labour plantation to offshore industrial production for German or Nordic firms. Their economy remains only 1/6th the size of Germany’s and will likely remain in that range for the overseeing future.

I understand (and share) your frustration with them, but it’s akin to ants nibbling at the shoes. You would never notice unless you look for it.

What status are we talking about? Poland is already the whipping boy of the EU and hated by liberals.

Poland still gets massive EU funding (and yes, I know there’s the argument German and other corporations extract more wealth from Poland in return, but still, losing access to EU funds would be painful for Poland). So Polish right-wingers probably should exercise at least some caution and at least pretend to be in line with the supposed spirit of the EU as a peace project. Apparently that’s too much to ask of them though.

I have the suspicion that women aren’t suited to be foreign ministers – that they are not good at geography (Truss confused Black Sea with Baltic), care too much about feelings. They like to talk so much that they can’t pause for the translator. They like staged things, to the point where it is hard to take them seriously.

The mayors of Voronezh and Rostov should get in on the trolling and invite her over to them to go shopping, or they should have their next conference in one of the cities.

No, it isn’t, Poland’s claims are a fake grievance. As I understand it, they’re basically asking for Poles in Germany (overwhelmingly recent immigrants of the last 30-40 years, so not like Sorbs with a long-established presence in a certain territory) to be given the status of a national minority with corresponding privileges. If Germany conceded that, there would be nothing to stop Turks and other immigrant communities from demanding the same, so it would massively accelerate Germany’s multiculturalization and fragmentation.

Excellent point. From this perspective, Polish demands are unreasonable. They should only apply if and towards some native Polish area that found itself on the wrong side of the border, and not towards Polish immigrants to Poland.

OTOH, since the Germans have sadly chosen to give their country up anyways, one can sort of understand if Poles want to salvage their own people who happen to be in Germany. Better for Poles in Germany to continue to be Poles, rather than to become pro-Muslim migrant, trans activist Germans.

It doesn’t matter what they are, Polish nationalists will encourage unhinged hatred of any kind of German

Anti-German Poles have some material to work with. The grandchildren of the Nazis who murdered millions of Poles now lecture Poles about human rights and demand that Poles take in migrants. They also appease Russia.

OK I looked it up. A pup fetish is what old farts used to call a furry.

Also: I listened to Moldbug and he had a couple of interesting claims which are probably ridiculous but his host loved them.

1. Almost any Ukrainian can be incited to lose his shit by one of us saying the Ukraine.

2. All the top officials in Kiev are not fluent in the Ukrainian language.

Also this is irrelevant to the topic but he thinks it’s funny that people take a dump all over the place on the sidewalks of San Francisco where he lives.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article258122123.html

Russian media and academia include folks with a slant close enough to yours than mine.

Kiev regime controlled Ukraine appears comparatively more restrictive towards people thinking at or close to my views.

Most of the stated 14,000 killed are the result of Kiev regime actions.

Can you imagine Russia doing to people it considers to be Russians what they did to Chechens? Turning Kharkiv into another Grozny? Russian nationalists insist that Kiev is the “mother of Russian cities.” Wil they obliterate it? Destroy the famous Monastery of the Caves (still under the Moscow Patriarch)?

Then again, Chechen terrorists were committing terror attacks outside Chechnya in other parts of Russia. Before leveling Grozny, Russian forces gave ample time for people in that city to withdraw. Grozny has since been rebuilt.

One comparison not being made in this discussion, is the Soviet led intervention in Czechoslovakia, involving a half million in a country much smaller in size and population than Ukraine. The USSR wasn’t seeking to kill many Czechs. Ditto Russia with Ukrainians.

The Russian game plan doesn’t seem to include actually attacking Ukraine, as has been pretty well assessed by military analysts who know what they’re talking about.

Am a doomerist on America.

And I think we are way past the possibility for significant political reforms. But, nevertheless, it is interesting to consider how the inevitable political fallout from runaway inflation will manifest. Trump could potentially return.

I always found it odd that the most strident nationalists here in Sweden insist on assimilation and reject multiculturalism, even if the latter will aid in strengthening a separate racial identity for ethnic Swedes and arguably slow intermingling.

I think they understand that Swedes would not be allowed to have their own space, while the others would be.

But Poles should be encouraging German language skills. It might help them when they annex East Germany and expel the non-Euros westward, leading to the further weakening of their neighbors and new annexations.

Also (Rupert Murdoch’s) most popular cable news program in America [Tucker Carlson] presented a similar skeptical attitude.

Rupert Murdoch created Fox News to be the cable counterpart to his Wall Street Journal. He supports Corporatism and opposes MAGA Populism. Fortunately, proper Corporatists also prioritize making money. As long as he keeps bringing in the \$\$\$, Tucker will keep his slot.

When Tucker leaves his successor is likely to espouse different politics. Rupert’s children have SJW Globalist leanings and wield day-to-day responsibilities for running Fox News. You can already see Fox weakening during their more conventional news shows.

(But Rupert Murdoch’s friend) Boris Johnson has given 2000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in the recent days, perhaps it might be his maximum action.

He deserves credit for “Get BREXIT Done!” However, beyond that he has no accomplishments. His policies on migration are ludicrous, and he has made other blunders. He is facing an insurrection within his own party.

BoJo could not obtain the necessary votes to commit the UK to war with Russia.
____

You are weakening your argument by dragging Rupert into it. It sounds conspiratorial, at best. You would be better served by laying out the facts. Due to internal issues, neither the U.S. nor UK can go on a “foreign adventure” into Ukraine.

The only NATO member that could tip the balance is Turkey. It would not be difficult for them to field 50,000+ troops and provide extensive logistical support in Ukraine for operation “Ottoman North”. Of course, once the Turkish occupation begins, the New Ottoman Empire will never leave.

PEACE 😇

So Polish right-wingers probably should exercise at least some caution and at least pretend to be in line with the supposed spirit of the EU as a peace project. Apparently that’s too much to ask of them though.

The EU was supposed to be a collection of sovereign equals. What it has delivered is SJW authoritarian nuttiness. Merkel, and her Open Borders insanity, exacerbated multicultural chaos and dysfunction.

Can you get German SJW-wingers (including Scholz) to exercise at least some caution? Pretend to be in line with the supposed spirit of the EU as a peace project? Stop making efforts to turn other EU countries German dominated, multicultural subordinates?
____

If there is a doom upon the EU, it is because Germany brought it.

Blaming Poland for wanting sovereignty & respect is the equivalent of shooting the messenger.

PEACE 😇

IMO, Baltics have higher inflation stats because their governments have spent less time evolving mechanisms to hide it. Still, it is probably higher than they acknowledge.

Has Trudeau already lost the Mandate of Heaven?

2. All the top officials in Kiev are not fluent in the Ukrainian language.

They may be primarily Russian-speaking but can speak Ukrainian fluently. How dumb must one be not to check before claiming this? (criticism of Moldbug, not you)

One comparison not being made in this discussion, is the Soviet led intervention in Czechoslovakia, involving a half million in a country much smaller in size and population than Ukraine

Unlike Ukrainians, Czechs aren’t fighters though.

Most of the stated 14,000 killed are the result of Kiev regime actions.

The war would have been over after a few months if Russia hadn’t actively supported the rebels. So after the first few months, the deaths are at least as much Russia’s fault as Kiev’s fault. More so, if you accept that countries have a right to use force to try to keep control over territory in their own recognized borders.

Who is to blame for bloodshed in Syria? Assad – or the Turks, Saudis, Americans pouring in weapons, volunteers, etc. to support the rebellion against him?

They also appease Russia.

Since there’s pretty much zero Russian threat to Poland, this isn’t really a legitimate grievance. If Poles choose to go out of their way to antagonize Russia by getting involved in Ukraine, that’s their own choice.
WW2 Germans also killed millions of Russians btw, so I’m not sure Poland’s claims to holy victim status should take precedence.

But Poles should be encouraging German language skills. It might help them when they annex East Germany and expel the non-Euros westward

I think it’s reasonable to assume that the kind of nutcases who go on about “everything up to the Elbe is Slavic territory” wouldn’t expel just non-Europeans. Not going to happen either way though. Poland’s birthrate is pretty catastrophic too after all.