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As a New Year’s present, here’s a new Open Thread for the Karlin commenting community, jump started with a few relocated comments from the previous thread.

— Ron Unz

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 
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  1. Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven’t yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English and changing the country’s name to something more palatable to its members, like “Refugium” or “Queermany.”

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldlan
    • LOL: showmethereal
    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird


    Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven’t yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English
     
    You mean the language of CAPITALISM? That would never happen. Perhaps they would chose Arabic or Farsi. How about an invented language, like Esperanto?

    The image below is circulating, but I have not found a tie back to the original source. Based on Cem Özdemir's record, the quote is highly plausible.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-31-at-9.01.01-AM-482x600.png

    Replies: @songbird, @Barbarossa

  2. Interestingly, the mayor of Mexico City is a Jewish woman, Claudia Scheinbaum Pardo. There was some controversy this past year, as she had a 150 year old statue of Columbus taken down and replaced with an indigenous woman.

    She has been floated as a possible presidential candidate for 2024.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @songbird

    don't look now... now even Chile has elected a "left winger"... the mestizos and the indigenous have almost all taken taken back Latin America. If Bolsonaro gets voted out - it will be pretty much complete except Colombia and a couple of stragglers. US Monroe Doctrine is faltering... Which most of the brown and peach colored people below Texas are happy about.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

  3. @songbird
    Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven't yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English and changing the country's name to something more palatable to its members, like "Refugium" or "Queermany."

    Replies: @A123

    Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven’t yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English

    You mean the language of CAPITALISM? That would never happen. Perhaps they would chose Arabic or Farsi. How about an invented language, like Esperanto?

    The image below is circulating, but I have not found a tie back to the original source. Based on Cem Özdemir’s record, the quote is highly plausible.

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123


    How about an invented language, like Esperanto?
     
    Once read a novel where the villains spoke Esperanto, and I thought it was a really clever idea. Though, a parasitical model of politics (which I think holds) would suggest that the Left would rather speak Sioux or Choctaw, as they have more speakers.

    Similarly, Farsi and Arabic would be terrible choices from their perspective. Only the Arab oil states have any money. The others are all dirt poor (it is amazing how poor Morocco and Algeria are), and there are a lot of antagonisms between bordering countries. They are not intellectual centers, so not much of an academic niche to exploit. Plus, the disadvantage of gendered words.

    What makes English attractive is that it is a language of maximization. You can exploit the most resources using English - the most money, the most minds. English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers - that's more than Mandarin, and it's better than Mandarin because there is no Great Firewall, or censorship by the CCP.
    _____
    I wonder whether Cem Özdemir feels any sympathy for the price that his fellow Turks are paying for food in inflated currency. Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown. Probably if the Greens ever took total power there would be a worse famine than happened under Mao.

    Replies: @German_reader, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    , @Barbarossa
    @A123

    On that German agriculture minister; I don't find what he's saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized. We pay for the true cost alright, just not at the checkout. This does lead to a variety of negative effects on the environment, health, and farmer livelihood. This includes societal costs from the ever increasing push to consolidate farms into larger and larger entities.

    80 years ago or so, in my part of the world, a man could raise a respectable family on a 15 or 20 head dairy. Now a 500 cow dairy is considered too small to make it. This was a shift that was engineered and pushed at the government level, not something that "just happened". Needless to say, it's been a disaster for the vitality of rural communities and for the ability of young farmers to start up. Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition.

    The dairy farmers that I know are loosing money badly right now. Fuel, grain, and other inputs are skyrocketing while the milk price keeps dropping. One farmer would sell his whole herd tomorrow, but there is no market to buy the cows. He'd be better off financially to sell them for beef, so he holds on while he can.

    So, I do think there is a strong argument that food should be more expensive to the consumer, but that the government should get out of the subsidies, so that we pay the true cost.

    I'm not sure what the agriculture policy in Germany looks like for context. Maybe German_Reader would have some idea?

    Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Philip Owen

  4. Many thanks to Ron Unz for creating another Open Thread for this community, it is much appreciated!

    • Agree: songbird, Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @German_reader

    Happy New Years to all! Thanks to Mr. Unz for he is a jolly good fellow.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLIppgE45wM

  5. @A123
    @songbird


    Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven’t yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English
     
    You mean the language of CAPITALISM? That would never happen. Perhaps they would chose Arabic or Farsi. How about an invented language, like Esperanto?

    The image below is circulating, but I have not found a tie back to the original source. Based on Cem Özdemir's record, the quote is highly plausible.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-31-at-9.01.01-AM-482x600.png

    Replies: @songbird, @Barbarossa

    How about an invented language, like Esperanto?

    Once read a novel where the villains spoke Esperanto, and I thought it was a really clever idea. Though, a parasitical model of politics (which I think holds) would suggest that the Left would rather speak Sioux or Choctaw, as they have more speakers.

    Similarly, Farsi and Arabic would be terrible choices from their perspective. Only the Arab oil states have any money. The others are all dirt poor (it is amazing how poor Morocco and Algeria are), and there are a lot of antagonisms between bordering countries. They are not intellectual centers, so not much of an academic niche to exploit. Plus, the disadvantage of gendered words.

    What makes English attractive is that it is a language of maximization. You can exploit the most resources using English – the most money, the most minds. English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers – that’s more than Mandarin, and it’s better than Mandarin because there is no Great Firewall, or censorship by the CCP.
    _____
    I wonder whether Cem Özdemir feels any sympathy for the price that his fellow Turks are paying for food in inflated currency. Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown. Probably if the Greens ever took total power there would be a worse famine than happened under Mao.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @songbird


    Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown.
     
    It's partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    Replies: @Matra, @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack

    , @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms
    @songbird


    English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers – that’s more than Mandarin
     
    Mandarin is the spoken language, all the Sinitic languages / dialects are written in the same script, Chinese characters, hànzì 漢字.

    So it's incorrect to say "It's written in Mandarin", only "It's written in Chinese" since all the dialect speakers write using the same script.

    This is similar to Swiss German and other dialects are written in Standard German. But hànzì is logographic so can be used for vastly different languages, i.e. the agglutinative language Japanese.

    Someone fully literate in Chinese should be able to read 50 to 60% of a Japanese text. The reverse is somewhat less true since only mostly the educated knows kanji well, but still holds.

    So hànzì and kanji can be said to be used by ~1.5 billion people. (subject to Koreans reviving hanja which would increase that figure)

  6. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @A123


    How about an invented language, like Esperanto?
     
    Once read a novel where the villains spoke Esperanto, and I thought it was a really clever idea. Though, a parasitical model of politics (which I think holds) would suggest that the Left would rather speak Sioux or Choctaw, as they have more speakers.

    Similarly, Farsi and Arabic would be terrible choices from their perspective. Only the Arab oil states have any money. The others are all dirt poor (it is amazing how poor Morocco and Algeria are), and there are a lot of antagonisms between bordering countries. They are not intellectual centers, so not much of an academic niche to exploit. Plus, the disadvantage of gendered words.

    What makes English attractive is that it is a language of maximization. You can exploit the most resources using English - the most money, the most minds. English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers - that's more than Mandarin, and it's better than Mandarin because there is no Great Firewall, or censorship by the CCP.
    _____
    I wonder whether Cem Özdemir feels any sympathy for the price that his fellow Turks are paying for food in inflated currency. Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown. Probably if the Greens ever took total power there would be a worse famine than happened under Mao.

    Replies: @German_reader, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown.

    It’s partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    • Replies: @Matra
    @German_reader

    During my only ever visit to an Aldi (Munich-Schwanthalerhöhe) in 2019 I noticed when standing in the queue that I was the only white person in the store. They also had a security guard. Right after that I went to the Alnatura on Sonnenstraße - just a couple of minutes away. There, everybody was white, including the checkout staff. (Never saw a single automated checkout in Germany). No security guard either. It was like two different cities. I'm guessing Green voters shop at Alnatura.

    Replies: @sher singh

    , @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    It’s partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.
     
    Even mostly, I've witnessed too many conversations (e.g. forestry, a working-class guy mentioning how his father experienced green activists putting spikes in the sawmills and seriously injuring people, his interlocutor simply said with disgusting arrogance 'ok.. I'm not having this conversation') growing up not to notice it.

    It's a shame that enviromentalism has been so totally commandeered by those on the cultural extreme-left (funny, considering it originated with romantic nationalists and conservatives), and now in reaction the mainstream right takes equally imbecilic takes.
    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I'm agnostic on the topic), every other major enviromental problem seems to have become relatively ignored. Most seriously, the still constantly-increasing amounts of plastic, which, even if the worst predictions of athropogenic global warming are true, I feel things like microplastics circulating everywhere, as far as the Mariana Trench, are much more concerning.

    I mean, evolution has dealt with rapid climatic changes dozens of times over, but the ubiquitousness of indistible and often toxic compouds breaking down far enough to be ingested by microscopic organisms seems unprecedented.


    But this isn't really my area, I don't know if anyone within the hard sciences regularly comments here, I mostly just get my takes on energy issues from Vaclav Smil.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen

    , @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    I'm not sure just how "cheap" Aldis really are, perhaps, inexpensive would be a better term to describe them? I've been to Aldis twice in Minnesota, once in Fridley (a suburb of Minneapolis) and also in Hutchinson, a good sized town in the center of the state. I thought that there were a lot of good products on display all reasonably priced and a lot imported from Germany. A friend of mine just purchased a duck at Aldis and was not disappointed, paying half a much as he would at other food stores. There are now 2-3 in the Phoenix area. Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there? I'd be grateful to know, for they seem to sprouting up all over the US.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

  7. Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Matra

    Let's just say that the road into Georgia in 2008 was lined with broken down Russian tanks (think Ukraine in 2014, bascically the same army). Since then Russia has more or less completely re equipped its conventional forces, 90% done in some categories, 70% in others. The trouble is, that antitank weapons are cheaper than tanks if fighting real NATO forces. = won't happen. Also, the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia. The Stavka successfully framed Medvedeev's chosen Mr Reform for corruption hiself. The army hides behind the Great Patriotic War. The Air Force seems to be a lot better.

    The present burst of hysterical Russophobia is a product of the Ukrainian propaganda machine. In 2015, Congress voted $750m for arming Ukraine. Neither Obama nor Trump released it. The present war hysteria is a Ukrainian bid for that money. Stopping NS2 is a secondary objective.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Thulean Friend
    @Matra


    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.
     
    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn't care about "zeroes and ones" and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can't see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for "NATO easily defeated", given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I'd use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people's judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Jim Christian, @AP

  8. @Matra
    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won't be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter's disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Thulean Friend

    Let’s just say that the road into Georgia in 2008 was lined with broken down Russian tanks (think Ukraine in 2014, bascically the same army). Since then Russia has more or less completely re equipped its conventional forces, 90% done in some categories, 70% in others. The trouble is, that antitank weapons are cheaper than tanks if fighting real NATO forces. = won’t happen. Also, the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia. The Stavka successfully framed Medvedeev’s chosen Mr Reform for corruption hiself. The army hides behind the Great Patriotic War. The Air Force seems to be a lot better.

    The present burst of hysterical Russophobia is a product of the Ukrainian propaganda machine. In 2015, Congress voted \$750m for arming Ukraine. Neither Obama nor Trump released it. The present war hysteria is a Ukrainian bid for that money. Stopping NS2 is a secondary objective.

    • Thanks: Matra
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen


    the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia.
     
    So, similar dynamic to the US, if accurate. I suppose that Russia can't afford the scope of wasted military spending that the US seems addicted to.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  9. Interestingly, Putin has proposed lifting Gazprom’s monopoly on exporting pipeline gas to the EU. He has suggested that Rosneft, the state oil company, (Charman Gerhard Schroder, 2nd biggest shareholder BP at 20%), should supply gas to Europe through the Brotherhood pipeline that runs through Ukraine. As an oil company, Rosneft has more flexibility to play the spot market in gas than Gazprom (which may be blocked from offering competitive prices by contracts with China etc). As a private company it is more compatible with EU market philosophy. Also, as a private company, it adds an arms length relationship with Naftogaz of Ukraine so defusing the issues slightly.

    Rosneft is sanctioned by the US but not the EU.

    Meanwhile note that the UK received 29 shipments of LNG from Yamal in 2021 up from 22 in 2020. Until NS2 opens, the UK is Russia’s biggest buyer of gas in Europe as a some also comes via pipeline. In the other direction, Russia is the UK’s biggest foreign gas supplier (although the UK is not very dependent on foreign gas). Most reports on the matter only count pipeline gas so the LNG is missed.

  10. @German_reader
    @songbird


    Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown.
     
    It's partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    Replies: @Matra, @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack

    During my only ever visit to an Aldi (Munich-Schwanthalerhöhe) in 2019 I noticed when standing in the queue that I was the only white person in the store. They also had a security guard. Right after that I went to the Alnatura on Sonnenstraße – just a couple of minutes away. There, everybody was white, including the checkout staff. (Never saw a single automated checkout in Germany). No security guard either. It was like two different cities. I’m guessing Green voters shop at Alnatura.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Matra

    Hmm, my only interest in the EU is getting Kirpan restrictions (3ft sword) rescinded & I guess hijab.
    Since, women covering up is good and it creates cultural space for others to do so.

    Otherwise, u get retarded homeless lvl wignats attacking women who cover their hair.. which is rape.

    This thread doesn't show up on the Karlin blog but on Mr. Unz's page btw.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  11. @German_reader
    Many thanks to Ron Unz for creating another Open Thread for this community, it is much appreciated!

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    Happy New Years to all! Thanks to Mr. Unz for he is a jolly good fellow.

  12. A few Open Threads ago, I forcefully argued that in the event of a Nazi Germany victory on mainland Europe, the world that we live in today would not have been materially different.

    I noted that capitalism has an internal logic of its own, following a rhythm not dependent on external exigencies or political preferences. This is playing out in China. Xi Jinping has been drumming on about ‘common prosperity’ but rhetoric aside, the most consequential economic policies have not substantially changed:

    Socialism and communism as economic systems appear to be dead. This so-called “Cold War 2.0” is decidedly more boring than the old one, for at least there was an ideological contest at stake back then. On issues like climate change, China and the US also see eye to eye. I am happy about this, but this also means that the ideological fervor of the 20th century has given way to a stale technocratic consensus, where the only real fight is who gets to be top dog in a system all agree to the basic ground rules rather than which set of ideas should rule. Yawn.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Derer
    @Thulean Friend


    Socialism and communism as economic systems appear to be dead.
     
    For some reason you forgot about 2009 one trillion "socialist" bailout of corrupt crony capitalists. Taxpayers paid twice to corporate bums. That just tells you who controls the government.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  13. @Matra
    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won't be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter's disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @Thulean Friend

    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.

    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn’t care about “zeroes and ones” and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can’t see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for “NATO easily defeated”, given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I’d use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people’s judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Thulean Friend


    As for “NATO easily defeated”, given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.
     
    I am not so sure about that at all. It only makes sense if you assume that a conventional war must be a war to the absolute finish. But why can't there be a limited conventional war, fought over limited objectives? If there can be a limited war, then MAD logic would seem to hold - ie better to lose the limited war than effectuate MAD.
    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Thulean Friend


    It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst
     
    Nonsense. I haven't come across a clearer thinking and more talented geopolitical analyst on the Internet as Karlin.

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @Mikhail

    , @Jim Christian
    @Thulean Friend

    Thule, in Russian territory out to the Atlantic, the Russian military can handle easily handle NATO. Further, Russia is not Saddam, Russia is NOT going to allow the U.S. a 7 month buildup. So NATO would have to cope, and given stern warning, Washington might call it a day. For decades it's been speculated that the U.S. will NOT risk war (especially nuclear) with the SovietBloc/Russian entities. After all, it was Russia that really destroyed Hitler. The US collected their kills merely firebombing helpless victims in the German cities when it was all but over. The US ruling class knows better than to go all out against the people who beat Hitler.

    , @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    His biography (publicly available) is that he was a junior Soviet military officer from a second tier military academy, who in the early 90s left for the USA and worked as a tutor for smart kids (someone his age should have done better in life, this doesn't speak well for him). He is useful and interesting in the sense that not many actual Soviet military officers write and argue in English with people, so exposure to his POV is good. But take what he says with a big grain of salt and no need to idealize him.

    Commenter Twinkie easily bested him in a series of arguments about World War II.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Dmitry

  14. @songbird
    Interestingly, the mayor of Mexico City is a Jewish woman, Claudia Scheinbaum Pardo. There was some controversy this past year, as she had a 150 year old statue of Columbus taken down and replaced with an indigenous woman.

    She has been floated as a possible presidential candidate for 2024.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    don’t look now… now even Chile has elected a “left winger”… the mestizos and the indigenous have almost all taken taken back Latin America. If Bolsonaro gets voted out – it will be pretty much complete except Colombia and a couple of stragglers. US Monroe Doctrine is faltering… Which most of the brown and peach colored people below Texas are happy about.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @showmethereal

    America has been focused on Asia more or less since the 50s.
    Europe will always be the #1 focus but Asia has been the #2.

    The Western hemisphere will get fkd hard once USA retreats from Asia.
    https://youtu.be/W9fnmLPpAvM

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @showmethereal

    , @songbird
    @showmethereal

    Heard that the president of Uruguay is an open borders guy.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  15. @showmethereal
    @songbird

    don't look now... now even Chile has elected a "left winger"... the mestizos and the indigenous have almost all taken taken back Latin America. If Bolsonaro gets voted out - it will be pretty much complete except Colombia and a couple of stragglers. US Monroe Doctrine is faltering... Which most of the brown and peach colored people below Texas are happy about.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

    America has been focused on Asia more or less since the 50s.
    Europe will always be the #1 focus but Asia has been the #2.

    The Western hemisphere will get fkd hard once USA retreats from Asia.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @sher singh

    Not sure what you mean by that... They US has sponsored coups - or invasions - or interfered in elections - in every single one of those countries since the 1950's (Caribbean and Latin America). Many a right wing dictator or faux democratic ruler was propped up.... But in the past 20 years the tides have been turning. Even a coup in Nicaragua failed a couple of years ago... less famous than the attempt in Venezuela. But the people shrugged it off. And personally I never thought Chile would remain in the US orbit for the rest of my days... But that has just changed.

    But that was indeed an interesting video you posted...

  16. sher singh says:
    @Matra
    @German_reader

    During my only ever visit to an Aldi (Munich-Schwanthalerhöhe) in 2019 I noticed when standing in the queue that I was the only white person in the store. They also had a security guard. Right after that I went to the Alnatura on Sonnenstraße - just a couple of minutes away. There, everybody was white, including the checkout staff. (Never saw a single automated checkout in Germany). No security guard either. It was like two different cities. I'm guessing Green voters shop at Alnatura.

    Replies: @sher singh

    Hmm, my only interest in the EU is getting Kirpan restrictions (3ft sword) rescinded & I guess hijab.
    Since, women covering up is good and it creates cultural space for others to do so.

    Otherwise, u get retarded homeless lvl wignats attacking women who cover their hair.. which is rape.

    This thread doesn’t show up on the Karlin blog but on Mr. Unz’s page btw.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  17. Happy New Year, Ron!

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  18. @Philip Owen
    @Matra

    Let's just say that the road into Georgia in 2008 was lined with broken down Russian tanks (think Ukraine in 2014, bascically the same army). Since then Russia has more or less completely re equipped its conventional forces, 90% done in some categories, 70% in others. The trouble is, that antitank weapons are cheaper than tanks if fighting real NATO forces. = won't happen. Also, the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia. The Stavka successfully framed Medvedeev's chosen Mr Reform for corruption hiself. The army hides behind the Great Patriotic War. The Air Force seems to be a lot better.

    The present burst of hysterical Russophobia is a product of the Ukrainian propaganda machine. In 2015, Congress voted $750m for arming Ukraine. Neither Obama nor Trump released it. The present war hysteria is a Ukrainian bid for that money. Stopping NS2 is a secondary objective.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia.

    So, similar dynamic to the US, if accurate. I suppose that Russia can’t afford the scope of wasted military spending that the US seems addicted to.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Barbarossa

    How corrupt is its US counterpart, seeing that America spends more than the next 7 leading countries in defense spending combined?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  19. @showmethereal
    @songbird

    don't look now... now even Chile has elected a "left winger"... the mestizos and the indigenous have almost all taken taken back Latin America. If Bolsonaro gets voted out - it will be pretty much complete except Colombia and a couple of stragglers. US Monroe Doctrine is faltering... Which most of the brown and peach colored people below Texas are happy about.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird

    Heard that the president of Uruguay is an open borders guy.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @songbird

    Not sure... But little by little Uruguay has been moving in it's own direction. In fact it's even upsetting Brazil and Argentina right now because they are negotiating an FTA with China on their own - and not part of Mercosur

    https://en.mercopress.com/2021/09/08/uruguay-brokers-one-on-one-free-trade-deal-with-china-hoping-it-will-not-affect-mercosur

  20. [from previous Op Th]

    Clannish people get it, Germanics who are individualist-universalist can’t. Only black-white thinking.

    If I take that to mean race is either everything or it’s nothing, then yeah, I agree.

    Or as I like to put it, when they were bad, they were bad; when they were good, they were very, very cucked.

    • Agree: sher singh
  21. @Thulean Friend
    @Matra


    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.
     
    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn't care about "zeroes and ones" and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can't see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for "NATO easily defeated", given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I'd use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people's judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Jim Christian, @AP

    As for “NATO easily defeated”, given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    I am not so sure about that at all. It only makes sense if you assume that a conventional war must be a war to the absolute finish. But why can’t there be a limited conventional war, fought over limited objectives? If there can be a limited war, then MAD logic would seem to hold – ie better to lose the limited war than effectuate MAD.

  22. China just upped their timeline for lunar landing by 6 years, from 2033 to 2027. And their plan includes a one megawatt nuclear reactor, as well as a rover with a rage of 1000 km, and AI.

    NASA’s website still seems to say 2024, though Wikipedia gives 2025. Neither seems very reasonable to me. The official webpage for Artemis begins with this, right after “Artemis”:

    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before. We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. Then, we will use what we learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars.

    https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/

    I hope the Chinese build a mass driver lickety-split, and send a few lunar rocks to NASA, boom-boom style, before they contaminate the moon with black lesbos.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird


    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before.
     
    This will be entertaining as hell if nothing else. Hope she is hot like Liutenant Uhura.

    https://biobreak.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/mirror_mirror.jpg

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Thulean Friend
    @songbird

    China recently disclosed that their fusion reactor had an uptime of nearly 17 minutes. The previous record was 100 seconds. They have several fusion projects, this was the so-called EAST reactor (Tokamak version).

    There's an international effort in France on the same technology called ITER. It's not even constructed yet (scheduled to happen in 2025 and likely after 2030 due to chronic delays). The budget went from $6 billion to well past $35 billion now.

    If this is an indication of the future, then I'd bet on China making it happen before NASA.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  23. @A123
    @songbird


    Surprised that the Greens in Germany haven’t yet come out in support of mandating a transition to English
     
    You mean the language of CAPITALISM? That would never happen. Perhaps they would chose Arabic or Farsi. How about an invented language, like Esperanto?

    The image below is circulating, but I have not found a tie back to the original source. Based on Cem Özdemir's record, the quote is highly plausible.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-31-at-9.01.01-AM-482x600.png

    Replies: @songbird, @Barbarossa

    On that German agriculture minister; I don’t find what he’s saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized. We pay for the true cost alright, just not at the checkout. This does lead to a variety of negative effects on the environment, health, and farmer livelihood. This includes societal costs from the ever increasing push to consolidate farms into larger and larger entities.

    80 years ago or so, in my part of the world, a man could raise a respectable family on a 15 or 20 head dairy. Now a 500 cow dairy is considered too small to make it. This was a shift that was engineered and pushed at the government level, not something that “just happened”. Needless to say, it’s been a disaster for the vitality of rural communities and for the ability of young farmers to start up. Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition.

    The dairy farmers that I know are loosing money badly right now. Fuel, grain, and other inputs are skyrocketing while the milk price keeps dropping. One farmer would sell his whole herd tomorrow, but there is no market to buy the cows. He’d be better off financially to sell them for beef, so he holds on while he can.

    So, I do think there is a strong argument that food should be more expensive to the consumer, but that the government should get out of the subsidies, so that we pay the true cost.

    I’m not sure what the agriculture policy in Germany looks like for context. Maybe German_Reader would have some idea?

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @songbird
    @Barbarossa

    Just my ignorant 2 cents:

    There is an egalitarian movement to drop subsidies, so that food production can be moved to the Third World. It seems seductive. Refrigerated shipping means that we can get fresh food. Maybe, they will stop coming, if we buy their produce, and make them richer. But that is not what explains their poverty. (America buying Chilean fruit just made them import Haitians to pick it, eventually they got tired of them and send them our way.)

    And less seductively, they can develop the farmland into tracts of housing for more Third Worlders, as they are already doing in much of Western Europe. (Think of how much that will grow the economy!) England is food negative, reliant on imports.

    It is inherently insane. We've just seen some pretty big supply interruptions with covid. The Pinkerian view of history seems obviously wrong. Why point a gun at our heads and then hand it over to the Third World?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @A123
    @Barbarossa


    On that German agriculture minister; I don’t find what he’s saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.
     
    GR makes a good point. There is a class perspective in play.

    Food prices have dramatic impact on quality of life for the working poor. It can be 20% of their budget. Food price inflation is particularly hard on these folks.

    For those with substantial disposable income, increased food price is a nuisance issue.


    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized.
     
    As concepts, I see the point you are trying to make. However, one cannot look simply at the farm end.

    Monoculture is very difficult to tackle. Food processors have equipment that is not easily adjustable, thus consistent inputs are required. The distribution chain needs long lasting products to reach the shelves for purchase and consumption.

    Government subsidies are also difficult to address. All of the major producers have Agriculture policies. For the U.S. to cut while other countries continue is the equivalent of "unilateral disarmament".


    Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition
     
    MAGA Reindustrialization can work on a small scale. Equipment is often flexible, so a small shop can be profitable. Over regulation and subsidized imports can be tackled by MAGA policy.

    Even for small shops there is an understanding that the nation is not headed back to 1960's style production. New manufacturing is not going to be individual skilled craftsman. It will involve tasks like optimizing use of computer controlled machinery. Craft will still be required, but it has to be leveraged.
    ___

    Do you have specific policy proposals for small farms that would not mostly benefit the largest ones?

    "MAGA Family Farms" would be a good tag line. The % of shelf price reaching the farmer has been going down for years. BigAg processors & distributors use scale to their advantage when dealing with raw material inputs. However, I am not sure how to directly address that split.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Philip Owen
    @Barbarossa

    In the UK, the 20 dairy cows that delivered a decent living in the early 1970's were heavily subsidised even than. The subsidy went tothe farmer so kept the smaller farmers going. Inside the EU, the subsidy moved to the product. Thanks to overproduction, the subsidy was cut. Smaller farms were squeezed. Now as you say, 100's of cows aer needed.

    Meanwhile in Russia, 2000 milk cows and maybe 5000 animals are considered a minimum farm size. I talk to farms with 20,000 milkers. They are not for the Russian market but India, Thailand and China. Milk quality from Russian owned farms is still poor. Low levels of solids. Not much good for cheese.

  24. Silviosilver said https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-171/#comment-5094372

    patriot like AK could very easily be embraced

    Almost nobody will care. Russia is a very antiracist and tolerant (in terms of nationality) culture.

    I have memories from school (this was in Russia, many years ago) when quite young, we were learning that the most important thing is to not judge people from appearance, to respect every culture. I remember we listen to stories on this theme in the meetings in the hall. It’s one of the things you learn if you were fortunate to go to school in Russia, this kind of moral message.

    It’s partly because of the Christian and European heritage of the culture, but it’s more because of being an imperial country, which has ruled and absorbed many nationalities, and with a sense of many years of success in this area. For example, there are historical periods where territory is conquered and the populations are managed with less events like genocides than in some comparable empires.

    Only a very small minority of people in Russia would be racist to AK. Probably the only group where a majority of people would be racist, are nationalists. Nationalists are also the most forbidden or illegal political groups in the Russian Federation, and even those who do no physical crime, can have parts of their life in prison. They really had to go underground, to the extent they can still exist at all today.

    As AK redefining of terms, and saying “I am a nationalist”. This is partly in concordance to the government’s strategy to try to remove nationalism from the political discourse, and replace it with imperialism, and to literally call the imperialists as “nationalists”. I’m not saying he is some kind of kremlinbot. It’s actually looks like a flex when he posts photos of himself and says “I am a Russian nationalist”, and you can see in the last blog posts (about Putin’s role as a “perfect nationalist”, who runs open borders and imprisons nationalists) he had such a dry sense of humor. It’s like Kubla Khan standing on the broken bones of the nationalists.

    It’s also indication he was starting to absorb the postmodernist culture of the postsoviet politics. There is in Russia a Jewish politician called “Zhirinovsky” (his family name is really “Eidelshtein”). He throws all kinds of wild imperialist views and calls for everyone who annoys him to sit in the prison. Meanwhile this is head of the “Liberal Democratic Party”. There are many other funny stories related to this politician, but the international audience can begin understand some of postsoviet Dada in terms of the definition of terms. It’s a kind of a masterpiece of comedy.

    hateful Hitler-worshiping skinhead types who would detest someone like

    It’s not only negative, for a nationalism based on the desire for self-determination of peoples, in an imperial state like Russia, which is occupying other nationalities

    While the imperialism has many pluses, a lot of things people can complain about are also a result of the Great Power imperialism.

    There are features of a great empire which can be probably effective structural features, like the always over-representation of minority nationalities in the country’s elite. This is a constant feature across different regimes and has likely helped to extend power of the Moscow. This is an effective feature in terms of power projection. But it might also be if not a cause, then at least a symptom, of how the country does not function like a normal European nation state even after divesting many of the territories after 1991.

    There is also a side of nationalism in the imperial state, that can rebel against the imperialist external policy. This imperialist external policy can often overextend and only be beneficial for the elites’ power, but not carry many benefits to the ordinary citizen. A view that people should stay in their country and not try to impose and occupy other nationalities, is not such an unsensible view in theory.

    Of course, history is not so simple, and great empire that supports its security interests against rival empires, is a more accurate description of Russia’s position in the early 21st century. Such great powers will need to defend imperial interests in countries like Ukraine, even if in the moral sense Ukraine should have self-determination by its majority nationality. Powerful countries have such additional rights and duties.

  25. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    On that German agriculture minister; I don't find what he's saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized. We pay for the true cost alright, just not at the checkout. This does lead to a variety of negative effects on the environment, health, and farmer livelihood. This includes societal costs from the ever increasing push to consolidate farms into larger and larger entities.

    80 years ago or so, in my part of the world, a man could raise a respectable family on a 15 or 20 head dairy. Now a 500 cow dairy is considered too small to make it. This was a shift that was engineered and pushed at the government level, not something that "just happened". Needless to say, it's been a disaster for the vitality of rural communities and for the ability of young farmers to start up. Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition.

    The dairy farmers that I know are loosing money badly right now. Fuel, grain, and other inputs are skyrocketing while the milk price keeps dropping. One farmer would sell his whole herd tomorrow, but there is no market to buy the cows. He'd be better off financially to sell them for beef, so he holds on while he can.

    So, I do think there is a strong argument that food should be more expensive to the consumer, but that the government should get out of the subsidies, so that we pay the true cost.

    I'm not sure what the agriculture policy in Germany looks like for context. Maybe German_Reader would have some idea?

    Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Philip Owen

    Just my ignorant 2 cents:

    There is an egalitarian movement to drop subsidies, so that food production can be moved to the Third World. It seems seductive. Refrigerated shipping means that we can get fresh food. Maybe, they will stop coming, if we buy their produce, and make them richer. But that is not what explains their poverty. (America buying Chilean fruit just made them import Haitians to pick it, eventually they got tired of them and send them our way.)

    And less seductively, they can develop the farmland into tracts of housing for more Third Worlders, as they are already doing in much of Western Europe. (Think of how much that will grow the economy!) England is food negative, reliant on imports.

    It is inherently insane. We’ve just seen some pretty big supply interruptions with covid. The Pinkerian view of history seems obviously wrong. Why point a gun at our heads and then hand it over to the Third World?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    Not surprisingly, I would be extremely opposed to off shoring food production 0r using arable American land for more tract housing.
    I wholeheartedly agree about the vulnerabilities of a (more) off site food production system. It would be a step even further in the wrong direction.

    It rather parallels the same thought process that sold NAFTA to both US and Mexicans.
    Mexicans never really got the wage parity and great jobs that they were promised in Mexico, but the small scale corn farmers got decimated when the border was opened up to cheap US subsidized corn imports. This in turn drives collapse of rural economies and economic migration...to our very own El Norte where they can be used as pawns to depress the wages of American workers.

    https://thecounter.org/border-crisis-immigration-mexican-corn-nafta/
    This article ties it together pretty succinctly.

    Curiously, the only folks that get screwed over in this arrangement are the workers and the small farmers. The big guys make out just fine, as it was designed to deliver, naturally.
    It's important to remember that NAFTA was just as disruptive to Mexicans culturally and economically as Americans.

  26. Don’t know if there isn’t a better term than “Great Replacement.” Guess it doesn’t cover all the bases, but I do like the term “the Great Gibs Rush.”

  27. @songbird
    China just upped their timeline for lunar landing by 6 years, from 2033 to 2027. And their plan includes a one megawatt nuclear reactor, as well as a rover with a rage of 1000 km, and AI.

    NASA's website still seems to say 2024, though Wikipedia gives 2025. Neither seems very reasonable to me. The official webpage for Artemis begins with this, right after "Artemis":


    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before. We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. Then, we will use what we learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars.
     
    https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/

    I hope the Chinese build a mass driver lickety-split, and send a few lunar rocks to NASA, boom-boom style, before they contaminate the moon with black lesbos.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Thulean Friend

    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before.

    This will be entertaining as hell if nothing else. Hope she is hot like Liutenant Uhura.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    IIRC, there were a couple of unexpected events with astronauts, where I don't think that a diversity hire would have cut it. For example, on one lunar mission, there was some knob that they were supposed to turn, and it broke off, with only seconds to spare until liftoff. (maybe solved with digital controls?)
    ____
    It was funny when they made Sulu gay. I mean, obviously it was politics. But, the more I think of it now, he probably would be less gay in the Mirrorverse.

  28. German Reader says

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-171/#comment-5092074

    October revolution and the civil war led to much greater discontinuities,

    In terms of changeover of elite, there is a full revolution, at least as much as in the French Revolution. And in terms of the more brutal, and also more competent, new managers of the company, can include former revolutionary bank robbers like Stalin.

    But the discontinuity of the political system from 1917 is less than you expect, if you had been naïve to believe the self-presentation of Soviet propaganda. They pretend to be representative of the hopes of the proletariat and a dawn of justice and equality promised in Marxist theory.

    Under the old management before February 1917 , was a weaker dictatorship of the Russian Empire, where you can go to prison camp if you criticize the authorities. Under the new management, a stronger dictatorship of the Soviet Union, where you can even more likely go to prison camp if you criticize the authorities.

    Lenin and Stalin understood that he they inherited the Russian Empire and work soon to rebuild its autocracy with stronger foundations, learning from the previous mistakes. For example, they are rapidly upgrading secret security services to a far higher level, with branches in every major city, so that the revolution would not be repeated. From blockage of the Bastille 1789, to Napoleon adding a crown on his head, is around 15 years. And in Stalin says to his mother that he is the Tsar around 17 years after October.

    As for the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is in some ways more of a break of structure, from a dictatorship to democracy, communism to capitalism, censorship to freedom of press.

    However, in reality, there is already not much of democracy by 1996. This is not an equal election in 1996. Freedom of press was a few more years, although always conditional under financial interests.

    One of the culture shocks today is to look at some television shows after the terrorist bombings in Moscow in 1999. There was an incident where FSB agents were burying a bomb. And in television after, they allow the audience to question the FSB representative and ask if they were responsible. Within a few months however, the oligarch who owns this television channel (Gusinsky) is arrested and goes to exile. Then Gazprom has a hostile takeover of the television channel . So, this is all around 2000.

    And already by 1996 there was a fake election.

    “nationalist” turn in Soviet culture in 1930s/40s is a bit surprising at first sight.
    (at least it seems to me, sorry if that’s a bit of a naive take)

    They aren’t promoting the immediately previous elite, but only the elite of some dozen generations ago. It’s not difficult for them to promote Nevsky as a great hero, that supported the Russian people, consistent with the narrative that the previous elite were parasitical imperialists.

    But there is something surprising for naïve people who had expected that the Soviet Union would be some kind of utopian futurist culture, and not just a change of management in one of the great empires.

    Although there were less naïve leftists in Europe like George Orwell, who enjoyed a lot this theme of “same difference”. If you remember in “Animal Farm”, at the end they don’t even continue with a change of name of the farm.

    • Thanks: German_reader
  29. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    On that German agriculture minister; I don't find what he's saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized. We pay for the true cost alright, just not at the checkout. This does lead to a variety of negative effects on the environment, health, and farmer livelihood. This includes societal costs from the ever increasing push to consolidate farms into larger and larger entities.

    80 years ago or so, in my part of the world, a man could raise a respectable family on a 15 or 20 head dairy. Now a 500 cow dairy is considered too small to make it. This was a shift that was engineered and pushed at the government level, not something that "just happened". Needless to say, it's been a disaster for the vitality of rural communities and for the ability of young farmers to start up. Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition.

    The dairy farmers that I know are loosing money badly right now. Fuel, grain, and other inputs are skyrocketing while the milk price keeps dropping. One farmer would sell his whole herd tomorrow, but there is no market to buy the cows. He'd be better off financially to sell them for beef, so he holds on while he can.

    So, I do think there is a strong argument that food should be more expensive to the consumer, but that the government should get out of the subsidies, so that we pay the true cost.

    I'm not sure what the agriculture policy in Germany looks like for context. Maybe German_Reader would have some idea?

    Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Philip Owen

    On that German agriculture minister; I don’t find what he’s saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    GR makes a good point. There is a class perspective in play.

    Food prices have dramatic impact on quality of life for the working poor. It can be 20% of their budget. Food price inflation is particularly hard on these folks.

    For those with substantial disposable income, increased food price is a nuisance issue.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized.

    As concepts, I see the point you are trying to make. However, one cannot look simply at the farm end.

    Monoculture is very difficult to tackle. Food processors have equipment that is not easily adjustable, thus consistent inputs are required. The distribution chain needs long lasting products to reach the shelves for purchase and consumption.

    Government subsidies are also difficult to address. All of the major producers have Agriculture policies. For the U.S. to cut while other countries continue is the equivalent of “unilateral disarmament”.

    Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition

    MAGA Reindustrialization can work on a small scale. Equipment is often flexible, so a small shop can be profitable. Over regulation and subsidized imports can be tackled by MAGA policy.

    Even for small shops there is an understanding that the nation is not headed back to 1960’s style production. New manufacturing is not going to be individual skilled craftsman. It will involve tasks like optimizing use of computer controlled machinery. Craft will still be required, but it has to be leveraged.
    ___

    Do you have specific policy proposals for small farms that would not mostly benefit the largest ones?

    “MAGA Family Farms” would be a good tag line. The % of shelf price reaching the farmer has been going down for years. BigAg processors & distributors use scale to their advantage when dealing with raw material inputs. However, I am not sure how to directly address that split.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You are certainly correct that the American farming system would be difficult to turn around. It took decades of concerted effort to get to where it is and would require concerted effort to turn round.

    As I mentioned earlier, the centralizing push was concerted since the early 70's and "Get big or get out!" Ag secretary Earl Butz. This has resulted in food producers who are inflexible, completely dependent on the banks and government, and trapped in a cycle of increasing their scale of production to desperately reach some level of security which never appears.

    This has absolutely destroyed the traditional rural backbone of America. 20 small farms make a town. 1 mega farm does not. The anti-social aspects of industry and agriculture consolidation are hard to overestimate and have done much to hollow out conservative America. Besides, I can tell you that farm kids are not going to be too susceptible to trans messaging and other liberal madness. Conservatism is rightfully based in reality, which must involve a connection to the natural world. The collapse of rural life and the rise in adoption of liberalism by the masses hardly seems unrelated. We have a world increasingly unmoored from any reality.

    I actually dispute the idea that industrial farming techniques are always more efficient than more traditional ones. It often depends on one's metric of "efficiency". For example, industrial meat production is a very grain heavy process, where corn and soy (grown on prime rich soil) get fed to animals in managed containment conditions.

    In the shift to industrial agriculture a corner of the country like mine has become abandoned. We don't have much of the rich soil to grow corn or soy. What we can grow well is grass, and indeed the area was rich with independent sheep farmers and dairies until the post-WW2 shift.

    Cows and sheep have been blessed with rumens, those miraculous stomachs capable of turning grass and other roughage, which has no food use to humans at all, into meat and milk. However, in our constant quest for "mechanized efficiency" we would rather use our best land to feed animals and let our land suited for animals lie fallow.

    You are correct that the middle men are a massive amount of the issue. The dairy farmers that I know are virtual slaves to the milk coops who can dictate terms since a virtual monopoly exists.

    The dairy of the past could market directly to it's community, banking on the evident quality of the product. Some farms would advertise that they kept Jersey or Guernsey cows for thick rich cream which the customer could clearly see. Modern milk is a commodity, one which the farmer has no ability to sell independently or set the price on. The middle men ought to be minimized.

    I agree with your point that food price hikes are hardest on the poor. There are a number of different ways to approach this. However, I don't think there are as many poor as poor in spirit in this country. When I see families (term used loosely) with four wheelers, nicer cars than me, the newest smartphones with data plans etc., yet receiving food stamps, HEAP etc. I suspect that our metric of poor has become skewed. I don't think it would hurt a lot of those folks to pay more for better food which supports a local community member. People could also garden more, especially poor people. A substantial amount of vegetable production used to happen in backyards, which is healthy and pro-social.

    Food as a percentage of total budget is as low as it's ever been in human history, which is not sustainable when the farmers can't make a living.

    My guess on where this is heading is that as the older farmer age out, which is rapidly happening, the younger generation will be unwilling or unable to make a smart of it. Increasingly larger scale agricultural land ownership and management will consolidate American agriculture ownership in a smaller and smaller pool of mega owners, such as Bill Gates is doing with his 242,000 acres ag holdings.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

  30. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Thulean Friend
    @Matra


    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.
     
    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn't care about "zeroes and ones" and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can't see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for "NATO easily defeated", given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I'd use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people's judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Jim Christian, @AP

    It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst

    Nonsense. I haven’t come across a clearer thinking and more talented geopolitical analyst on the Internet as Karlin.

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Jim Christian
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Agree all CR, except to add Andrei Martyanov to that class. I've wondered over the years if Anatoly and Mr. Martyanov have ever met. But the both of them have deep bases of writing and opinion. Andrei Martyanov is the go-to on military matters, equipment and states of military minds, he's seen the inside of both sides, he's certainly taken the measure of out American leaders. Anatoly being the traveler and much younger obviously gets the nod for social commentary as regards the yewts of Europe and Russia. Anatoly is also expert with his photography, St. Petersburg especially.

    I get different things from each. Except I wish Anatoly would stand further back from the ledges of tall buildings.

    , @Mikhail
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Numerous quality folks out there.

  31. @Thulean Friend
    @Matra


    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.
     
    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn't care about "zeroes and ones" and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can't see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for "NATO easily defeated", given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I'd use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people's judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Jim Christian, @AP

    Thule, in Russian territory out to the Atlantic, the Russian military can handle easily handle NATO. Further, Russia is not Saddam, Russia is NOT going to allow the U.S. a 7 month buildup. So NATO would have to cope, and given stern warning, Washington might call it a day. For decades it’s been speculated that the U.S. will NOT risk war (especially nuclear) with the SovietBloc/Russian entities. After all, it was Russia that really destroyed Hitler. The US collected their kills merely firebombing helpless victims in the German cities when it was all but over. The US ruling class knows better than to go all out against the people who beat Hitler.

  32. @songbird
    China just upped their timeline for lunar landing by 6 years, from 2033 to 2027. And their plan includes a one megawatt nuclear reactor, as well as a rover with a rage of 1000 km, and AI.

    NASA's website still seems to say 2024, though Wikipedia gives 2025. Neither seems very reasonable to me. The official webpage for Artemis begins with this, right after "Artemis":


    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before. We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. Then, we will use what we learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars.
     
    https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/

    I hope the Chinese build a mass driver lickety-split, and send a few lunar rocks to NASA, boom-boom style, before they contaminate the moon with black lesbos.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Thulean Friend

    China recently disclosed that their fusion reactor had an uptime of nearly 17 minutes. The previous record was 100 seconds. They have several fusion projects, this was the so-called EAST reactor (Tokamak version).

    There’s an international effort in France on the same technology called ITER. It’s not even constructed yet (scheduled to happen in 2025 and likely after 2030 due to chronic delays). The budget went from \$6 billion to well past \$35 billion now.

    If this is an indication of the future, then I’d bet on China making it happen before NASA.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Thulean Friend

    Just for the record - I think western media got it confused about 2027 for the lunar base. What China said was that they would be working between 2022 and 2027 with Russia on how they will go about the lunar base and other space issues (I assume the Chinese space station that is currently being put into full usage). it is a China and Russia joint project... it doesn't appear they were saying 2027. I think they are still shooting for 2030+

  33. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Thulean Friend


    It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst
     
    Nonsense. I haven't come across a clearer thinking and more talented geopolitical analyst on the Internet as Karlin.

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @Mikhail

    Agree all CR, except to add Andrei Martyanov to that class. I’ve wondered over the years if Anatoly and Mr. Martyanov have ever met. But the both of them have deep bases of writing and opinion. Andrei Martyanov is the go-to on military matters, equipment and states of military minds, he’s seen the inside of both sides, he’s certainly taken the measure of out American leaders. Anatoly being the traveler and much younger obviously gets the nod for social commentary as regards the yewts of Europe and Russia. Anatoly is also expert with his photography, St. Petersburg especially.

    I get different things from each. Except I wish Anatoly would stand further back from the ledges of tall buildings.

  34. China likely peaked demographically in 2021.

    Interestingly, the US population growth rate in 2021 was just 0.1%. The main attack on China is that they have “terrible demographics”. Maybe, but I don’t see the US doing much better.

    China also seems more internally stable to me than the US. Polarisation in the US is reaching comical levels, with even something as simple as vaccination campaigns becoming weaponised and politicised.

    Still think the US will have the upper hand vis-a-vis China given its alliance network but I just want to puncture the common attack themes against China since most of them make little sense.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Thulean Friend

    The US white population has even shrunk in absolute numbers, so I think they are overall demographically worse off and in a worse trend than China.

    NYT: "Census Shows Sharply Growing Numbers of Hispanic, Asian and Multiracial Americans"

    The white population [of America] declined for the first time in history. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States lifted strict ethnic quotas aimed at keeping the country Northern and Western European.
    That drop, of 2.6 percent, was driven in part by the aging of the white population — the median age was 44 in 2019, compared with 30 for Hispanics — and a long-running decline in the birthrate. Some social scientists theorized that another potential reason for the decrease was that more Americans who previously identified as white on the census are now choosing more than one race.

     

    https://archive.ph/PYU9w

    (I don't think the fake latinos and fake indigenes, while existent, are numerous enough to matter in raw numbers.)

    NYT: "It was a terrifying census for white nationalists"

    https://archive.ph/GaSml

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @showmethereal

    , @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    internally stable to me than the US
     
    It's a predictable dynamic, as a result of the collapse of the USSR, American culture losing some of their sense of "cosmic role".

    In the second half of the 20th century, a lot of their culture's identity has been derived from their position in the Cold War.

    This is not just merger of cultural identity with capitalist ideology, but also some brutal aspects of capitalism could be accepted and sublimated with a sense of meaning into a clash of world civilization.

    When the Soviet Union is not longer pretending to act as a contrast or alternative, the sense of cosmic role of America is turning inwards, or lost in becoming a world culture.

    In Russia, is sadly now culturally on the trashheap of history, and only the authorities can robotically create fake acting, on non-important topics, as a vulgar form of opposition. Chinese culture unfortunately appears stillborn and doesn't present sufficient contrast to stimulate the American culture sphere. My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.

    Perhaps it sounds funny, but the boycotted 1980s Olympic might be seen one day, as the premonitory goodbye for this 20th century "Agon". Some symbolic moment of the world spirit, when people were suddenly expressing sadness as they were singing goodbye to the Olympic bear who flew away from Moscow, goes back to hide in the forest, and did not return.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzuGK5tH1G4

    Replies: @songbird, @Philip Owen

  35. Jeff Bezos lost \$40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.
     
    Easy to remain content when you have as many billions remaining (and still underpay your workers), why post this? We don't need to see any more of the tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri posts enough already.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Barbarossa
    @Thulean Friend


    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.
     
    Even if it does make him look disturbingly like Lex Luther...
    , @Pericles
    @Thulean Friend

    Ha ha ha, that's a memorable picture if nothing else.

    , @Philip Owen
    @Thulean Friend

    That's happy?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @melanf
    @Thulean Friend

    Either a bad photo, or Bezos is wasting his money badly. With his wealth, he could buy himself a concubine at the sight of which the men would be dumb with delight and envy, and not this lady with the face of a bitch

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  36. @German_reader
    @songbird


    Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown.
     
    It's partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    Replies: @Matra, @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack

    It’s partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    Even mostly, I’ve witnessed too many conversations (e.g. forestry, a working-class guy mentioning how his father experienced green activists putting spikes in the sawmills and seriously injuring people, his interlocutor simply said with disgusting arrogance ‘ok.. I’m not having this conversation’) growing up not to notice it.

    It’s a shame that enviromentalism has been so totally commandeered by those on the cultural extreme-left (funny, considering it originated with romantic nationalists and conservatives), and now in reaction the mainstream right takes equally imbecilic takes.
    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic), every other major enviromental problem seems to have become relatively ignored. Most seriously, the still constantly-increasing amounts of plastic, which, even if the worst predictions of athropogenic global warming are true, I feel things like microplastics circulating everywhere, as far as the Mariana Trench, are much more concerning.

    I mean, evolution has dealt with rapid climatic changes dozens of times over, but the ubiquitousness of indistible and often toxic compouds breaking down far enough to be ingested by microscopic organisms seems unprecedented.

    But this isn’t really my area, I don’t know if anyone within the hard sciences regularly comments here, I mostly just get my takes on energy issues from Vaclav Smil.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)
     
    I think it's real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don't believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I'm rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there's definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies...I'm always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven't yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry, @songbird, @Mikel

    , @Philip Owen
    @Yevardian

    The British Tories have a green streak. Maggie Thatcher set up the Montreal Protocol, drove the IPCC into existence and put a moratorium on nuclear power. Johnson and his present wife have just promoted COP26 on climate change with vigour. Environmentalism is quite selfish. It is about self preservation, not the social good.

  37. @Thulean Friend
    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    https://i.imgur.com/FztuUAS.jpg

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Barbarossa, @Pericles, @Philip Owen, @melanf

    Jeff Bezos lost \$40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    Easy to remain content when you have as many billions remaining (and still underpay your workers), why post this? We don’t need to see any more of the tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri posts enough already.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri
     
    At least it is a post that describes real life though, as you can talk about the people directly, or become confused with discussions about the extremely indirect concepts ("political ideologies", "countries", "GDP growth") which are just derived from that reality.

    In this forum, you often read people become comically lost in arguing about meaningless "teams" and concepts, which they were just fed to them by such people, and which already have a response "ready made". The response of rightwing people, is already "readymade" or contained inside an opposing concept. Because they are built just like scripts.

    For example, when you see a large corporation, it seems very impressive and official. When a young graduate is joining on a graduate course, they might feel excited that they are joining a real institution. It feels like entering a great mansion or castle.

    But when they are old, they might know the managers and the operation, and will understand it is just some people with certain formal agreements between each other. There is not really this existing company with its symbols/icons, "corporate culture", etc. It was all just a dream.

    It's actually like animals throwing up some camouflage to seem larger than they are. And humans are very vulnerable to being lost in the patterns of the camouflage.

    And of course, these people (like all people) are also not the "mature adults" that are presented in their business life. They are the same kids you remember from your playground or classroom, and our adult persona is another camouflage.

    You'll be very confused if you were trying to understand Amazon, from the code used in its website, or it's symbols, corporate, ideology ,etc. On the other hand, it's a just a person who is selling you some things. Bezos' mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.

    And this is the same for much of the politics and history. People are very confused arguing about ideologies, political parties, and countries, as if they were real objects. This sounds very grandiose and prestigious, even magical. It's of course, just indirect ways to refer to what some people are doing. And those behaviors you might understand intuitively when you were in the school playground.

    That's not to say, that people will not learn from improving their understanding of political theory e.g. Hegel, Adam Smith, Marx, etc, and should just read "Hello magazine". But looking at what you rulers are really doing, would be healthy for the society, to prevent some of the confusions.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  38. @German_reader
    @songbird


    Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown.
     
    It's partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.

    Replies: @Matra, @Yevardian, @Mr. Hack

    I’m not sure just how “cheap” Aldis really are, perhaps, inexpensive would be a better term to describe them? I’ve been to Aldis twice in Minnesota, once in Fridley (a suburb of Minneapolis) and also in Hutchinson, a good sized town in the center of the state. I thought that there were a lot of good products on display all reasonably priced and a lot imported from Germany. A friend of mine just purchased a duck at Aldis and was not disappointed, paying half a much as he would at other food stores. There are now 2-3 in the Phoenix area. Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there? I’d be grateful to know, for they seem to sprouting up all over the US.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mr. Hack

    Aldi and Lidl are some of the best supermarkets in Europe. It's really a good value shop. I'm such a fanboy of them that I would have posters of these German supermarkets in my walls.

    But when I young I actually had studied a little with such kind of German people whose family are billionaires owning such chains, and they were not exactly the less disruptive or most sympathetic classmates.

    I'm not really sure what to say about such divergence of the consumer and personal experience. But maybe I'm not the only one with such experiences or divided perceptions.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there?
     
    I don't think you need to worry more than about any other supermarket chain, generally the quality of their products should be fine, it's just that it's got a certain low-class image in Germany, because their prices are low and the assortment of wares is somewhat limited (also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles).
    Of course the usual caveats apply, if you want quality meat, you're probably better off to some butcher's shop.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

  39. @Thulean Friend
    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    https://i.imgur.com/FztuUAS.jpg

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Barbarossa, @Pericles, @Philip Owen, @melanf

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    Even if it does make him look disturbingly like Lex Luther…

  40. @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    I'm not sure just how "cheap" Aldis really are, perhaps, inexpensive would be a better term to describe them? I've been to Aldis twice in Minnesota, once in Fridley (a suburb of Minneapolis) and also in Hutchinson, a good sized town in the center of the state. I thought that there were a lot of good products on display all reasonably priced and a lot imported from Germany. A friend of mine just purchased a duck at Aldis and was not disappointed, paying half a much as he would at other food stores. There are now 2-3 in the Phoenix area. Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there? I'd be grateful to know, for they seem to sprouting up all over the US.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

    Aldi and Lidl are some of the best supermarkets in Europe. It’s really a good value shop. I’m such a fanboy of them that I would have posters of these German supermarkets in my walls.

    But when I young I actually had studied a little with such kind of German people whose family are billionaires owning such chains, and they were not exactly the less disruptive or most sympathetic classmates.

    I’m not really sure what to say about such divergence of the consumer and personal experience. But maybe I’m not the only one with such experiences or divided perceptions.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry

    I'm not totally following you here, Dmitry. I think that you had imbibed a little too much bubbly the night before? What you're stating though sounds quite interesting about the upper class German kids
    though...Happy New Year!

    Replies: @songbird

  41. So looks like the 5 eyes are ratcheting up their efforts against China

    is this the proverbial “carrot” that will be used to coerce Indians into the alliance?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Svidomyatheart

    The rules for immigration from HK is loose enough.

  42. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.
     
    Easy to remain content when you have as many billions remaining (and still underpay your workers), why post this? We don't need to see any more of the tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri posts enough already.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri

    At least it is a post that describes real life though, as you can talk about the people directly, or become confused with discussions about the extremely indirect concepts (“political ideologies”, “countries”, “GDP growth”) which are just derived from that reality.

    In this forum, you often read people become comically lost in arguing about meaningless “teams” and concepts, which they were just fed to them by such people, and which already have a response “ready made”. The response of rightwing people, is already “readymade” or contained inside an opposing concept. Because they are built just like scripts.

    For example, when you see a large corporation, it seems very impressive and official. When a young graduate is joining on a graduate course, they might feel excited that they are joining a real institution. It feels like entering a great mansion or castle.

    But when they are old, they might know the managers and the operation, and will understand it is just some people with certain formal agreements between each other. There is not really this existing company with its symbols/icons, “corporate culture”, etc. It was all just a dream.

    It’s actually like animals throwing up some camouflage to seem larger than they are. And humans are very vulnerable to being lost in the patterns of the camouflage.

    And of course, these people (like all people) are also not the “mature adults” that are presented in their business life. They are the same kids you remember from your playground or classroom, and our adult persona is another camouflage.

    You’ll be very confused if you were trying to understand Amazon, from the code used in its website, or it’s symbols, corporate, ideology ,etc. On the other hand, it’s a just a person who is selling you some things. Bezos’ mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.

    And this is the same for much of the politics and history. People are very confused arguing about ideologies, political parties, and countries, as if they were real objects. This sounds very grandiose and prestigious, even magical. It’s of course, just indirect ways to refer to what some people are doing. And those behaviors you might understand intuitively when you were in the school playground.

    That’s not to say, that people will not learn from improving their understanding of political theory e.g. Hegel, Adam Smith, Marx, etc, and should just read “Hello magazine”. But looking at what you rulers are really doing, would be healthy for the society, to prevent some of the confusions.

    • Agree: sher singh, Yellowface Anon
    • Thanks: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    When you explain it like that, you have a very good point, and it does certainly reflect how the vast majority of everyday people actually experience and view the world. But that's easy to forget for most of us nerds and autistes (including our benevolent overlord himself?) commenting here, who naturally prefer to see everything in terms of abstractions and systems.
    But we do have a few bigbrains such as A123 who interpret politics et all in an extremely personalised manner, so it's not all one-sided.



    Bezos’ mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.
     
    Ok, but you can take this too far, that applies to understanding a man's (and by extension, their company) drives and goals, but it doesn't do much at all to explain the means, which is arguably more important.

    Since we're on the topic of personalities, alongside extremely vain businesspeople or politicians that revel in the media spotlight (somewhat like a pig in a trough), there must also be many equally (or more) influential/powerful figures that the world simply never hears about, since they prefer to keep a low profile.

    Of course, politicians by definition are public and media-focused figures, but I wonder if anyone could point out businesspeople with personal convinctions that greatly affect the world we live in. I'd like to say there a probably dozens of private-minded Chinese billionaires or party-functionaries in this category, but that's more likely due to our own ignorance about the country.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  43. German_reader says:
    @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    It’s partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.
     
    Even mostly, I've witnessed too many conversations (e.g. forestry, a working-class guy mentioning how his father experienced green activists putting spikes in the sawmills and seriously injuring people, his interlocutor simply said with disgusting arrogance 'ok.. I'm not having this conversation') growing up not to notice it.

    It's a shame that enviromentalism has been so totally commandeered by those on the cultural extreme-left (funny, considering it originated with romantic nationalists and conservatives), and now in reaction the mainstream right takes equally imbecilic takes.
    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I'm agnostic on the topic), every other major enviromental problem seems to have become relatively ignored. Most seriously, the still constantly-increasing amounts of plastic, which, even if the worst predictions of athropogenic global warming are true, I feel things like microplastics circulating everywhere, as far as the Mariana Trench, are much more concerning.

    I mean, evolution has dealt with rapid climatic changes dozens of times over, but the ubiquitousness of indistible and often toxic compouds breaking down far enough to be ingested by microscopic organisms seems unprecedented.


    But this isn't really my area, I don't know if anyone within the hard sciences regularly comments here, I mostly just get my takes on energy issues from Vaclav Smil.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen

    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)

    I think it’s real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don’t believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I’m rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there’s definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies…I’m always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven’t yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @A123
    @German_reader

    The Globalists have been pushing climate myths for elite enrichment. The scare story "only 10 years to act" has collapsed under its own weight after 50 years of inaction.

     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vJz41fofy0k/VQXNF7Apd9I/AAAAAAAAC34/AljPAlRyu1U/s1600/time_covers.jpg
     

    If the climate hysterics were accurate, the human race ended decades ago.

    Did all humans die as they predicted?

    The time of False Prophets and their Global Cooling / Warming / Change doom calls is at an end. The hordes of private jets that descend on each climate event is an obvious display of Elite insincerity.

    Part of the MAGA platform needs to be total defunding of every university credentialed Science Denier that fabricated results in return for grant money. With no funding and no ability to publish fake science, the grifters of "faux academia" will no longer have sheeple to fleece.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    ubiquituous plastics,
     
    With the plastic bottles alleged effect on male fertility, there could be an indicator by comparing to Russia or Poland. In many EU countries people can still feel confident to drink tap water. In Russia, in most cities you have to drink plastic bottle water. (In many cities, tap water is full of dangerous levels of trichlorethylenes, organochlorine, as they can send you tap water from a pond, which is later reported as an industrial wastewater site)

    Of few studies I could see sperm quality in Russia. For example, they only studied in the city of Arkhangelsk . "The sperm quality in Russian men was slightly worse than in men from Finland, Norway, Sweden, or Estonia, but very similar to that in men from Denmark or Poland. " https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1557988320939714

    In Denmark, there should be not people drinking from plastic bottles, as they still have clean tap water that people are confident to drink, whereas in Poland it's common to drink water from plastic bottles as the tap water is becoming more dangerous. (Although even in the West, the water machines in offices are from plastic containers) So at least Russia, Poland and Denmark are all similar in that study.

    In all this, I guess I'm more comfortable to drink from a plastic bottle and suffer some microplastics, than from a pond which might be reported in a few years later that it was actually a wastewater site. Known carcinogens are also more concerning than potential health concerns or potential carcinogens of plastic bottles or food packaging.

    Replies: @utu

    , @songbird
    @German_reader


    But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
     
    I'm a skeptic. But putting that aside, it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, "The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs."

    If they instead said, "We want your support for nuclear energy, in order to save the world. We are sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition, we are willing to deport all of the people you deem undesirable, starting with ourselves." Then my ears would really perk up.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Beckow, @A123

    , @Mikel
    @German_reader


    the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime
     
    The change in climate has been noticeable over the lifetimes of everyone born in the last ~170 years, provided they lived past 3-4 decades.

    The planet began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age, in the mid 19th century. Records are less reliable in those early times but there are lots of land stations and maritime observations (sea water temperature logs collected by ships during decades while they traversed shipping lanes all over the globe) since the 19th century and sometimes earlier. The consensus estimate (from the IPCC itself) is that from 1850 to 1945 the global atmosphere warmed at a rate comparable to that of the most recent decades (less than a factor of 2 of difference):

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentFeature/GlobalWarming/images/giss_temperature.png

    But we don’t know why this initial global warming took place. In its initial reports the IPCC attributed this early warming mainly to solar influences. But we now have much more precise data taken by satellites of how much solar irradiance varies between cycles of high to low solar activity and we know that it is not enough to alter the temperature significantly (which is why direct solar explanations for the current warming have also been discarded). The latest scientific reports of the IPCC (Working Group I) don’t include any consensus explanation for this initial global warming.

    One other interesting aspect of that graph is that when the actual concentration of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases began to really rise in the atmosphere after the end of WWII, as observed at the Mauna Loa long-term observatory, the global temperature went down until the mid 70s. The usual explanation for this paradox is that the cooling was produced by sulfates and other industrial aerosols but this is debatable. This type of aerosols are short-lived, they get removed of the atmosphere by rain in a matter of days or weeks so they mostly affect the source regions and those downwind of them. However, the Southern Hemisphere, where these aerosols were practically absent, also cooled down from the mid 40s to the late 60s. Moreover, a strong cooling effect of sulfates that could more than compensate for the warming effect of GHGs would mean that nowadays we would be seeing strong cooling in regions heavily affected by aerosols, such as China, but we don’t see that.

    The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. Biased, alarmist and politicized like on any other subject. Attributing all sorts of weather phenomena, such as a spat of tornadoes, to climate change is asinine. The frequency and intensity of tornadoes in the US has actually decreased over the past century. But it is impossible to get this kind of scientific facts from the MSM. One has to go to specialized blogs or, ironically, to the IPCC reports themselves.

    In summary, there are good grounds to be rather skeptical of the climate catastrophism. But at the same, time, we know from physical first principles that increasing amounts of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs must necessarily lead to a warmer global temperature. The question is how much warmer, what the effects will be and how logical it is with our present knowledge to reduce our wealth in order to try and combat these possible effects.

    In the mid 2000s Roger Pielke, a more or less skeptical climate researcher, argued that climate science was not being conducted as a real scientific discipline and asked what kind of observation would disprove specific claims made by the anthropogenic global warming theory, as is customary in all hard sciences.



    A very interesting debate took place on the internet, far away from the mainstream discourse, and both skeptic and mainstream scientists agreed that in 2001, in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, a specific prediction was made of a global warming of 0.2C/decade from that date until the 3rd decade of this century, independent of the emissions scenario. The IPCC numerical models, taking into account the direct effects of the GHGs and the thermal lag of the oceans, showed that this would be the warming in the next 3 decades, largely independent of how much more CO2 we emitted.

    It soon became apparent that the models were overestimating the actual observed warming. In fact, from 2001 to 2015 all observational records, both surface and satellite-based, showed little or no warming during half of the period established in the IPCC 2001 prediction. This even led to the 5th Assessment Report to acknowledge the existence of a pause in global warming.

    But things changed dramatically in 2015-2016. First, a Super-Niño episode took place those years that moved the trend upwards and second, a paper was published in the literature arguing that the ocean part of the surface-based observational studies had important errors and the past global temperatures needed to be corrected downwards. This made the trend become more positive again. As a consequence of this paper, all surface records were corrected and now exhibited a trend line basically in agreement with the IPCC predictions. One of the two main satellite records (RSS) was also modified for different reasons to cool down the past and all but one satellite-based record (UAH) right now show broad agreement with the 0.2C/decade warming prediction.

    The models-observations discrepancy was solved in the worst possible way, by correcting the observations rather than by making the theory conform to the observed facts. But this is what the state of climate science is at present. If the global temperature continues warming at ~0.2/decade during the following 10 years and no more corrections are made to the observations, I think that one could more or less trust that the models are capturing the essence of how the atmosphere works with the current forcings. Making a successful prediction of how the global temperature will evolve in a period of 3 decades is a tremendous feat. But if we have another pause the conclusion will obviously have to be that mainstream climate science is exaggerating the global warming problem, which is probably the case even if that specific prediction pans out. The “Climategate” papers showing how the IPCC used to work for its initial reports show a disturbing picture of corrupt peer-review practices and generalized politicization.

    Replies: @utu

  44. German_reader says:
    @Mr. Hack
    @German_reader

    I'm not sure just how "cheap" Aldis really are, perhaps, inexpensive would be a better term to describe them? I've been to Aldis twice in Minnesota, once in Fridley (a suburb of Minneapolis) and also in Hutchinson, a good sized town in the center of the state. I thought that there were a lot of good products on display all reasonably priced and a lot imported from Germany. A friend of mine just purchased a duck at Aldis and was not disappointed, paying half a much as he would at other food stores. There are now 2-3 in the Phoenix area. Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there? I'd be grateful to know, for they seem to sprouting up all over the US.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @German_reader

    Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there?

    I don’t think you need to worry more than about any other supermarket chain, generally the quality of their products should be fine, it’s just that it’s got a certain low-class image in Germany, because their prices are low and the assortment of wares is somewhat limited (also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles).
    Of course the usual caveats apply, if you want quality meat, you’re probably better off to some butcher’s shop.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    From everything I was told, EU has relatively very strong regulations in terms of food safety. In the USA (perhaps not in California though), there is usually lower regulation in comparison.

    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all. From my superficial experience, Aldi usually seems subjectively high quality products as well, if you are happy to eat non-organic products.

    Except there are some areas in EU agriculture like extra virgin olive oil, where there is apparently a lot of fraud in Europe where testing shows evidence of refining process in supposedly unprocessed products.

    I guess this is stereotypically expected considering the country of origin of olive oil are those stereotypically more corrupt EU countries like Spain, Italy and Greece, with perhaps relatively worse regulation enforcements.


    https://i.imgur.com/zBbAGss.jpg

    https://olivecenter.ucdavis.edu/media/files/report2011three.pdf

    Similarly, Aldi is selling products like processed meat products from Poland, which apparently is often failing EU standards. So maybe avoid those products when you are shopping through Aldi (or just avoid processed meat from less regulated countries too much).


    want quality meat, you’re probably better off
     
    With meat, you are also exposing much more to those pollutants which accumulate in proteins higher in the food chain. But at least with private land there is more possibility to isolate it than with fish. If you can find at least organic, unprocessed meat.

    Fish is all sharing the same extremely polluted oceans, and you can see some studies where more expensive wild fish ocould measures even more pollutants than farmed one.

    It's these areas which are a real "commons" - the air and the oceans, where the pollution can been often apparently with almost free impunity. And the real situation of pollution in the ocean and air, is probably far worse than we are usually presented in the media.

    Replies: @LatW

    , @songbird
    @German_reader


    also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles
     
    Brand names have lost a lot of their prestige in my eyes, with globohomo, and so I feel an odd convergence with the Left, where they used to be saying stuff like CocaCola is bad because they are trying to buy up all the clean water in Africa and sell it to Africans, and I didn't really care about it. Frankly, I prefer store brands now.

    What is interesting with supermarkets is that sometimes the lower end ones pay their workers the most.

    Don't know much about Aldis specifically, but in America, in my little experience with it, the main detraction seems to be that they have big crowds and relatively few cashiers. I once saw evidence that rats had gnawed on a bag of flour, but I think that is pretty par for the course with supermarkets in general, in some locations - though most people wouldn't like to think so.
    , @RadicalCenter
    @German_reader

    We shop at Aldi in both California and New Jersey and are quite satisfied. Ganz zufrieden.

    I have German heritage and used to speak some German. But like many white Americans, Germans are a pathetic, easily frightened, aging, dying people making systematically stupid decisions about immigration, energy, and culture and failing even to reproduce while lecturing the rest of us. Globalist Germans also manage to be both arrogant Besserwisser (know-it-alls) / bullies and self-hating at the same time — impressive. We have been socializing with German immigrants to the US for the better part of a decade here in SoCal and wow, half of them are willfully obtuse and confident in their suicidal naivete, counterfactual assertions, and enthusiasm for proven-disastrous prescriptions.

    Who gives a damn what Germans think? As the old joke about “modern” Western “liberals” goes, they wouldn’t take their own side in a fight. They’re not going to be around for long.

  45. @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there?
     
    I don't think you need to worry more than about any other supermarket chain, generally the quality of their products should be fine, it's just that it's got a certain low-class image in Germany, because their prices are low and the assortment of wares is somewhat limited (also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles).
    Of course the usual caveats apply, if you want quality meat, you're probably better off to some butcher's shop.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    From everything I was told, EU has relatively very strong regulations in terms of food safety. In the USA (perhaps not in California though), there is usually lower regulation in comparison.

    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all. From my superficial experience, Aldi usually seems subjectively high quality products as well, if you are happy to eat non-organic products.

    Except there are some areas in EU agriculture like extra virgin olive oil, where there is apparently a lot of fraud in Europe where testing shows evidence of refining process in supposedly unprocessed products.

    I guess this is stereotypically expected considering the country of origin of olive oil are those stereotypically more corrupt EU countries like Spain, Italy and Greece, with perhaps relatively worse regulation enforcements.

    https://olivecenter.ucdavis.edu/media/files/report2011three.pdf

    Similarly, Aldi is selling products like processed meat products from Poland, which apparently is often failing EU standards. So maybe avoid those products when you are shopping through Aldi (or just avoid processed meat from less regulated countries too much).

    want quality meat, you’re probably better off

    With meat, you are also exposing much more to those pollutants which accumulate in proteins higher in the food chain. But at least with private land there is more possibility to isolate it than with fish. If you can find at least organic, unprocessed meat.

    Fish is all sharing the same extremely polluted oceans, and you can see some studies where more expensive wild fish ocould measures even more pollutants than farmed one.

    It’s these areas which are a real “commons” – the air and the oceans, where the pollution can been often apparently with almost free impunity. And the real situation of pollution in the ocean and air, is probably far worse than we are usually presented in the media.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Dmitry


    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all.
     
    The higher end grocery stores in the US are of utmost quality. Especially smaller, local co-op type stores. They will mostly carry locally produced, very clean (non-GMO, no hormone, no corn syrup, organic, etc), often times family farm sourced, nicely packaged items, in a great variety. Including meat and seafood, good wines (both local and imported), higher quality supplements and cosmetics. But they will be a bit pricey. The way to go about this is to buy a smaller amount of higher quality items (they may be lower calorie and lower sugar content and more nutritionally dense at the same time). Unless you have a big family, ofc, but even then you can buy a lot of the produce, bulk staples at the co-op and maybe meat somewhere else. More commonly than in Europe, you can buy a lot of stuff in bulk, such as nuts, cereal, all types of exotic spices, teas, etc. So Mr Hack has nothing to worry about. :) Of course, these shops also carry imported items, like German and French cosmetics, wine. Although American wine is the same quality but cheaper.

    And, of course, there is the same class delineation between the higher end stores and regular stores, which is just reality. There's no need to trash the lower end stores, ofc, one just has to be more careful picking items there (read the contents).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry, @AP

  46. @Thulean Friend
    China likely peaked demographically in 2021.

    Interestingly, the US population growth rate in 2021 was just 0.1%. The main attack on China is that they have "terrible demographics". Maybe, but I don't see the US doing much better.

    China also seems more internally stable to me than the US. Polarisation in the US is reaching comical levels, with even something as simple as vaccination campaigns becoming weaponised and politicised.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1476693654400081922

    Still think the US will have the upper hand vis-a-vis China given its alliance network but I just want to puncture the common attack themes against China since most of them make little sense.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Dmitry

    The US white population has even shrunk in absolute numbers, so I think they are overall demographically worse off and in a worse trend than China.

    NYT: “Census Shows Sharply Growing Numbers of Hispanic, Asian and Multiracial Americans”

    The white population [of America] declined for the first time in history. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States lifted strict ethnic quotas aimed at keeping the country Northern and Western European.
    That drop, of 2.6 percent, was driven in part by the aging of the white population — the median age was 44 in 2019, compared with 30 for Hispanics — and a long-running decline in the birthrate. Some social scientists theorized that another potential reason for the decrease was that more Americans who previously identified as white on the census are now choosing more than one race.

    https://archive.ph/PYU9w

    (I don’t think the fake latinos and fake indigenes, while existent, are numerous enough to matter in raw numbers.)

    NYT: “It was a terrifying census for white nationalists”

    https://archive.ph/GaSml

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Pericles

    There's a center-right German intellectual who I like quite a bit, named Gunnar Heinsohn. His latest analysis is available online. He has strong attention to detail but weak artistic skills, hence his graphs and charts are pretty messy and incoherent (typical German). But his core numbers are persuasive and strongly argued.

    I think the most important table is probably this one:

    https://i.imgur.com/HLK3FOC.png

    (A full-sized image can be viewed here).

    A naïve extrapolation would indeed give a 40X difference in raw absolute math aces between China and the US, but this is unlikely. Chinese fertility is likely lower than reported. China also selects its best provinces while the weakest students (offspring of those without Hukou permits) are not tested. Nevertheless, if we put their per capita performance closer to Japan and adjust for lower fertility, you still get a 10 million number compared to barely 1 million for the US of top math aces.

    Mathematics is the queen of sciences, after all. The US position is stronger than the table indicates, given US being the net emigration destination for most of the world's talent, but I don't think they can bridge such a chasm.

    I counted all the European countries (ex Russia) and came out to 2.5 million people. America barely has 1 million math aces under the age of 15. This is the central Achilles' heel of Europe. The talent is there, in fact more than twice as many as in USA, but it divided among too many countries, thus missing the crucial network effects. On top of just plain lower wages, leading to persistent brain drain.

    So when I hear about China going to 700 million by the end of this century, I just roll my eyes. What matters is what proportion of the top talent in the world that you have and China will have, and already has, a very large fraction of them. The key problem in China has been putting all those brains to good use. That was missing for most of the 20th and 19th centuries. It isn't a problem now.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Oscar C.

    , @showmethereal
    @Pericles

    Yeah western Europe is basically only growing because of immigrants (Eastern Europe is in decline overall). The white population is going into decline in much of Europe.... I'm not sure why anyone thought the US would be different. Likewise Japan is declining - with South Korea not far behind (they are below replacement).... China is heading that way (Chinese in Taiwan - Singapore - Hong Kong were already below replacement)....

    Replies: @Pericles

  47. @Thulean Friend
    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    https://i.imgur.com/FztuUAS.jpg

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Barbarossa, @Pericles, @Philip Owen, @melanf

    Ha ha ha, that’s a memorable picture if nothing else.

  48. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)
     
    I think it's real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don't believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I'm rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there's definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies...I'm always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven't yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry, @songbird, @Mikel

    The Globalists have been pushing climate myths for elite enrichment. The scare story “only 10 years to act” has collapsed under its own weight after 50 years of inaction.

     

     

    If the climate hysterics were accurate, the human race ended decades ago.

    Did all humans die as they predicted?

    The time of False Prophets and their Global Cooling / Warming / Change doom calls is at an end. The hordes of private jets that descend on each climate event is an obvious display of Elite insincerity.

    Part of the MAGA platform needs to be total defunding of every university credentialed Science Denier that fabricated results in return for grant money. With no funding and no ability to publish fake science, the grifters of “faux academia” will no longer have sheeple to fleece.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Alden
  49. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)
     
    I think it's real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don't believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I'm rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there's definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies...I'm always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven't yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry, @songbird, @Mikel

    ubiquituous plastics,

    With the plastic bottles alleged effect on male fertility, there could be an indicator by comparing to Russia or Poland. In many EU countries people can still feel confident to drink tap water. In Russia, in most cities you have to drink plastic bottle water. (In many cities, tap water is full of dangerous levels of trichlorethylenes, organochlorine, as they can send you tap water from a pond, which is later reported as an industrial wastewater site)

    Of few studies I could see sperm quality in Russia. For example, they only studied in the city of Arkhangelsk . “The sperm quality in Russian men was slightly worse than in men from Finland, Norway, Sweden, or Estonia, but very similar to that in men from Denmark or Poland.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1557988320939714

    In Denmark, there should be not people drinking from plastic bottles, as they still have clean tap water that people are confident to drink, whereas in Poland it’s common to drink water from plastic bottles as the tap water is becoming more dangerous. (Although even in the West, the water machines in offices are from plastic containers) So at least Russia, Poland and Denmark are all similar in that study.

    In all this, I guess I’m more comfortable to drink from a plastic bottle and suffer some microplastics, than from a pond which might be reported in a few years later that it was actually a wastewater site. Known carcinogens are also more concerning than potential health concerns or potential carcinogens of plastic bottles or food packaging.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Dmitry

    Drop in sperm count grows with popularity of oral and anal sex. The sperm just gets discourage as it finds it futile to be fertile.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  50. @songbird
    @Barbarossa

    Just my ignorant 2 cents:

    There is an egalitarian movement to drop subsidies, so that food production can be moved to the Third World. It seems seductive. Refrigerated shipping means that we can get fresh food. Maybe, they will stop coming, if we buy their produce, and make them richer. But that is not what explains their poverty. (America buying Chilean fruit just made them import Haitians to pick it, eventually they got tired of them and send them our way.)

    And less seductively, they can develop the farmland into tracts of housing for more Third Worlders, as they are already doing in much of Western Europe. (Think of how much that will grow the economy!) England is food negative, reliant on imports.

    It is inherently insane. We've just seen some pretty big supply interruptions with covid. The Pinkerian view of history seems obviously wrong. Why point a gun at our heads and then hand it over to the Third World?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Not surprisingly, I would be extremely opposed to off shoring food production 0r using arable American land for more tract housing.
    I wholeheartedly agree about the vulnerabilities of a (more) off site food production system. It would be a step even further in the wrong direction.

    It rather parallels the same thought process that sold NAFTA to both US and Mexicans.
    Mexicans never really got the wage parity and great jobs that they were promised in Mexico, but the small scale corn farmers got decimated when the border was opened up to cheap US subsidized corn imports. This in turn drives collapse of rural economies and economic migration…to our very own El Norte where they can be used as pawns to depress the wages of American workers.

    https://thecounter.org/border-crisis-immigration-mexican-corn-nafta/
    This article ties it together pretty succinctly.

    Curiously, the only folks that get screwed over in this arrangement are the workers and the small farmers. The big guys make out just fine, as it was designed to deliver, naturally.
    It’s important to remember that NAFTA was just as disruptive to Mexicans culturally and economically as Americans.

    • Thanks: songbird
  51. @Pericles
    @Thulean Friend

    The US white population has even shrunk in absolute numbers, so I think they are overall demographically worse off and in a worse trend than China.

    NYT: "Census Shows Sharply Growing Numbers of Hispanic, Asian and Multiracial Americans"

    The white population [of America] declined for the first time in history. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States lifted strict ethnic quotas aimed at keeping the country Northern and Western European.
    That drop, of 2.6 percent, was driven in part by the aging of the white population — the median age was 44 in 2019, compared with 30 for Hispanics — and a long-running decline in the birthrate. Some social scientists theorized that another potential reason for the decrease was that more Americans who previously identified as white on the census are now choosing more than one race.

     

    https://archive.ph/PYU9w

    (I don't think the fake latinos and fake indigenes, while existent, are numerous enough to matter in raw numbers.)

    NYT: "It was a terrifying census for white nationalists"

    https://archive.ph/GaSml

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @showmethereal

    There’s a center-right German intellectual who I like quite a bit, named Gunnar Heinsohn. His latest analysis is available online. He has strong attention to detail but weak artistic skills, hence his graphs and charts are pretty messy and incoherent (typical German). But his core numbers are persuasive and strongly argued.

    I think the most important table is probably this one:

    (A full-sized image can be viewed here).

    A naïve extrapolation would indeed give a 40X difference in raw absolute math aces between China and the US, but this is unlikely. Chinese fertility is likely lower than reported. China also selects its best provinces while the weakest students (offspring of those without Hukou permits) are not tested. Nevertheless, if we put their per capita performance closer to Japan and adjust for lower fertility, you still get a 10 million number compared to barely 1 million for the US of top math aces.

    Mathematics is the queen of sciences, after all. The US position is stronger than the table indicates, given US being the net emigration destination for most of the world’s talent, but I don’t think they can bridge such a chasm.

    I counted all the European countries (ex Russia) and came out to 2.5 million people. America barely has 1 million math aces under the age of 15. This is the central Achilles’ heel of Europe. The talent is there, in fact more than twice as many as in USA, but it divided among too many countries, thus missing the crucial network effects. On top of just plain lower wages, leading to persistent brain drain.

    So when I hear about China going to 700 million by the end of this century, I just roll my eyes. What matters is what proportion of the top talent in the world that you have and China will have, and already has, a very large fraction of them. The key problem in China has been putting all those brains to good use. That was missing for most of the 20th and 19th centuries. It isn’t a problem now.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Thulean Friend

    I wonder how many of the 'brightest math 15 y/o' in the US are ethnically Chinese? The US math olympiad teams of recent years tend to look that way, at least. See the slides for some examples.

    The slides were also interesting in another respect: I'm a lot more pessimistic than Heinsohn about his 'western fortresses of competence'. Our experiences with these are mixed or bad, IMO. Any functioning fixes will instead have to be made internally.

    , @Oscar C.
    @Thulean Friend

    Oh yes, Gunnar Heinsohn. I first knew about him due to his book "Söhne und Weltmacht", a demography-is-destiny kind of work, very interesting since it comes from a German, I find it hard to find Germans speaking out on these issues, it is almost everything coming from the English-speaking countries. I guess hate speech laws have a lot to do with it.

    David P. Goldman also talks a lot about the STEM gap between the US and China:

    https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2018/03/19/goldman-china-graduating-twice-many-doctorates-stem-fields-we-are/

  52. @Dmitry
    @German_reader


    ubiquituous plastics,
     
    With the plastic bottles alleged effect on male fertility, there could be an indicator by comparing to Russia or Poland. In many EU countries people can still feel confident to drink tap water. In Russia, in most cities you have to drink plastic bottle water. (In many cities, tap water is full of dangerous levels of trichlorethylenes, organochlorine, as they can send you tap water from a pond, which is later reported as an industrial wastewater site)

    Of few studies I could see sperm quality in Russia. For example, they only studied in the city of Arkhangelsk . "The sperm quality in Russian men was slightly worse than in men from Finland, Norway, Sweden, or Estonia, but very similar to that in men from Denmark or Poland. " https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1557988320939714

    In Denmark, there should be not people drinking from plastic bottles, as they still have clean tap water that people are confident to drink, whereas in Poland it's common to drink water from plastic bottles as the tap water is becoming more dangerous. (Although even in the West, the water machines in offices are from plastic containers) So at least Russia, Poland and Denmark are all similar in that study.

    In all this, I guess I'm more comfortable to drink from a plastic bottle and suffer some microplastics, than from a pond which might be reported in a few years later that it was actually a wastewater site. Known carcinogens are also more concerning than potential health concerns or potential carcinogens of plastic bottles or food packaging.

    Replies: @utu

    Drop in sperm count grows with popularity of oral and anal sex. The sperm just gets discourage as it finds it futile to be fertile.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @utu

    That sounds a bit puritan. I'm fairly confident that these practices (you seem to be implying yourself to be above such.. perversions) were as popular (if not moreso) in the past, due to reliable contraception not being available. And speaking of 'futile emissions', that sort of thing most be absolutely negligible when merely comparing to the epidemic levels of westoid inceldom, combined with the omnipresent ubiquity of free HD internet pornography, now accessible to any child with a 'smartphone', where practically anything can be found with a few illiterate fingertaps.

  53. @Thulean Friend
    @Pericles

    There's a center-right German intellectual who I like quite a bit, named Gunnar Heinsohn. His latest analysis is available online. He has strong attention to detail but weak artistic skills, hence his graphs and charts are pretty messy and incoherent (typical German). But his core numbers are persuasive and strongly argued.

    I think the most important table is probably this one:

    https://i.imgur.com/HLK3FOC.png

    (A full-sized image can be viewed here).

    A naïve extrapolation would indeed give a 40X difference in raw absolute math aces between China and the US, but this is unlikely. Chinese fertility is likely lower than reported. China also selects its best provinces while the weakest students (offspring of those without Hukou permits) are not tested. Nevertheless, if we put their per capita performance closer to Japan and adjust for lower fertility, you still get a 10 million number compared to barely 1 million for the US of top math aces.

    Mathematics is the queen of sciences, after all. The US position is stronger than the table indicates, given US being the net emigration destination for most of the world's talent, but I don't think they can bridge such a chasm.

    I counted all the European countries (ex Russia) and came out to 2.5 million people. America barely has 1 million math aces under the age of 15. This is the central Achilles' heel of Europe. The talent is there, in fact more than twice as many as in USA, but it divided among too many countries, thus missing the crucial network effects. On top of just plain lower wages, leading to persistent brain drain.

    So when I hear about China going to 700 million by the end of this century, I just roll my eyes. What matters is what proportion of the top talent in the world that you have and China will have, and already has, a very large fraction of them. The key problem in China has been putting all those brains to good use. That was missing for most of the 20th and 19th centuries. It isn't a problem now.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Oscar C.

    I wonder how many of the ‘brightest math 15 y/o’ in the US are ethnically Chinese? The US math olympiad teams of recent years tend to look that way, at least. See the slides for some examples.

    The slides were also interesting in another respect: I’m a lot more pessimistic than Heinsohn about his ‘western fortresses of competence’. Our experiences with these are mixed or bad, IMO. Any functioning fixes will instead have to be made internally.

  54. @sher singh
    @showmethereal

    America has been focused on Asia more or less since the 50s.
    Europe will always be the #1 focus but Asia has been the #2.

    The Western hemisphere will get fkd hard once USA retreats from Asia.
    https://youtu.be/W9fnmLPpAvM

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    Replies: @showmethereal

    Not sure what you mean by that… They US has sponsored coups – or invasions – or interfered in elections – in every single one of those countries since the 1950’s (Caribbean and Latin America). Many a right wing dictator or faux democratic ruler was propped up…. But in the past 20 years the tides have been turning. Even a coup in Nicaragua failed a couple of years ago… less famous than the attempt in Venezuela. But the people shrugged it off. And personally I never thought Chile would remain in the US orbit for the rest of my days… But that has just changed.

    But that was indeed an interesting video you posted…

    • Thanks: sher singh
  55. @songbird
    @showmethereal

    Heard that the president of Uruguay is an open borders guy.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    Not sure… But little by little Uruguay has been moving in it’s own direction. In fact it’s even upsetting Brazil and Argentina right now because they are negotiating an FTA with China on their own – and not part of Mercosur

    https://en.mercopress.com/2021/09/08/uruguay-brokers-one-on-one-free-trade-deal-with-china-hoping-it-will-not-affect-mercosur

    • Thanks: songbird
  56. @A123
    @Barbarossa


    On that German agriculture minister; I don’t find what he’s saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.
     
    GR makes a good point. There is a class perspective in play.

    Food prices have dramatic impact on quality of life for the working poor. It can be 20% of their budget. Food price inflation is particularly hard on these folks.

    For those with substantial disposable income, increased food price is a nuisance issue.


    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized.
     
    As concepts, I see the point you are trying to make. However, one cannot look simply at the farm end.

    Monoculture is very difficult to tackle. Food processors have equipment that is not easily adjustable, thus consistent inputs are required. The distribution chain needs long lasting products to reach the shelves for purchase and consumption.

    Government subsidies are also difficult to address. All of the major producers have Agriculture policies. For the U.S. to cut while other countries continue is the equivalent of "unilateral disarmament".


    Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition
     
    MAGA Reindustrialization can work on a small scale. Equipment is often flexible, so a small shop can be profitable. Over regulation and subsidized imports can be tackled by MAGA policy.

    Even for small shops there is an understanding that the nation is not headed back to 1960's style production. New manufacturing is not going to be individual skilled craftsman. It will involve tasks like optimizing use of computer controlled machinery. Craft will still be required, but it has to be leveraged.
    ___

    Do you have specific policy proposals for small farms that would not mostly benefit the largest ones?

    "MAGA Family Farms" would be a good tag line. The % of shelf price reaching the farmer has been going down for years. BigAg processors & distributors use scale to their advantage when dealing with raw material inputs. However, I am not sure how to directly address that split.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    You are certainly correct that the American farming system would be difficult to turn around. It took decades of concerted effort to get to where it is and would require concerted effort to turn round.

    As I mentioned earlier, the centralizing push was concerted since the early 70’s and “Get big or get out!” Ag secretary Earl Butz. This has resulted in food producers who are inflexible, completely dependent on the banks and government, and trapped in a cycle of increasing their scale of production to desperately reach some level of security which never appears.

    This has absolutely destroyed the traditional rural backbone of America. 20 small farms make a town. 1 mega farm does not. The anti-social aspects of industry and agriculture consolidation are hard to overestimate and have done much to hollow out conservative America. Besides, I can tell you that farm kids are not going to be too susceptible to trans messaging and other liberal madness. Conservatism is rightfully based in reality, which must involve a connection to the natural world. The collapse of rural life and the rise in adoption of liberalism by the masses hardly seems unrelated. We have a world increasingly unmoored from any reality.

    I actually dispute the idea that industrial farming techniques are always more efficient than more traditional ones. It often depends on one’s metric of “efficiency”. For example, industrial meat production is a very grain heavy process, where corn and soy (grown on prime rich soil) get fed to animals in managed containment conditions.

    In the shift to industrial agriculture a corner of the country like mine has become abandoned. We don’t have much of the rich soil to grow corn or soy. What we can grow well is grass, and indeed the area was rich with independent sheep farmers and dairies until the post-WW2 shift.

    Cows and sheep have been blessed with rumens, those miraculous stomachs capable of turning grass and other roughage, which has no food use to humans at all, into meat and milk. However, in our constant quest for “mechanized efficiency” we would rather use our best land to feed animals and let our land suited for animals lie fallow.

    You are correct that the middle men are a massive amount of the issue. The dairy farmers that I know are virtual slaves to the milk coops who can dictate terms since a virtual monopoly exists.

    The dairy of the past could market directly to it’s community, banking on the evident quality of the product. Some farms would advertise that they kept Jersey or Guernsey cows for thick rich cream which the customer could clearly see. Modern milk is a commodity, one which the farmer has no ability to sell independently or set the price on. The middle men ought to be minimized.

    I agree with your point that food price hikes are hardest on the poor. There are a number of different ways to approach this. However, I don’t think there are as many poor as poor in spirit in this country. When I see families (term used loosely) with four wheelers, nicer cars than me, the newest smartphones with data plans etc., yet receiving food stamps, HEAP etc. I suspect that our metric of poor has become skewed. I don’t think it would hurt a lot of those folks to pay more for better food which supports a local community member. People could also garden more, especially poor people. A substantial amount of vegetable production used to happen in backyards, which is healthy and pro-social.

    Food as a percentage of total budget is as low as it’s ever been in human history, which is not sustainable when the farmers can’t make a living.

    My guess on where this is heading is that as the older farmer age out, which is rapidly happening, the younger generation will be unwilling or unable to make a smart of it. Increasingly larger scale agricultural land ownership and management will consolidate American agriculture ownership in a smaller and smaller pool of mega owners, such as Bill Gates is doing with his 242,000 acres ag holdings.

    • Thanks: sher singh
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Barbarossa

    Perhaps we should limit the amount of agricultural land that can be owned by any one person (or married couple).

    We need to outright PROHIBIT corporations and non-citizens from owning agricultural land or residential rental property in our country.

  57. @Dmitry
    @German_reader

    From everything I was told, EU has relatively very strong regulations in terms of food safety. In the USA (perhaps not in California though), there is usually lower regulation in comparison.

    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all. From my superficial experience, Aldi usually seems subjectively high quality products as well, if you are happy to eat non-organic products.

    Except there are some areas in EU agriculture like extra virgin olive oil, where there is apparently a lot of fraud in Europe where testing shows evidence of refining process in supposedly unprocessed products.

    I guess this is stereotypically expected considering the country of origin of olive oil are those stereotypically more corrupt EU countries like Spain, Italy and Greece, with perhaps relatively worse regulation enforcements.


    https://i.imgur.com/zBbAGss.jpg

    https://olivecenter.ucdavis.edu/media/files/report2011three.pdf

    Similarly, Aldi is selling products like processed meat products from Poland, which apparently is often failing EU standards. So maybe avoid those products when you are shopping through Aldi (or just avoid processed meat from less regulated countries too much).


    want quality meat, you’re probably better off
     
    With meat, you are also exposing much more to those pollutants which accumulate in proteins higher in the food chain. But at least with private land there is more possibility to isolate it than with fish. If you can find at least organic, unprocessed meat.

    Fish is all sharing the same extremely polluted oceans, and you can see some studies where more expensive wild fish ocould measures even more pollutants than farmed one.

    It's these areas which are a real "commons" - the air and the oceans, where the pollution can been often apparently with almost free impunity. And the real situation of pollution in the ocean and air, is probably far worse than we are usually presented in the media.

    Replies: @LatW

    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all.

    The higher end grocery stores in the US are of utmost quality. Especially smaller, local co-op type stores. They will mostly carry locally produced, very clean (non-GMO, no hormone, no corn syrup, organic, etc), often times family farm sourced, nicely packaged items, in a great variety. Including meat and seafood, good wines (both local and imported), higher quality supplements and cosmetics. But they will be a bit pricey. The way to go about this is to buy a smaller amount of higher quality items (they may be lower calorie and lower sugar content and more nutritionally dense at the same time). Unless you have a big family, ofc, but even then you can buy a lot of the produce, bulk staples at the co-op and maybe meat somewhere else. More commonly than in Europe, you can buy a lot of stuff in bulk, such as nuts, cereal, all types of exotic spices, teas, etc. So Mr Hack has nothing to worry about. 🙂 Of course, these shops also carry imported items, like German and French cosmetics, wine. Although American wine is the same quality but cheaper.

    And, of course, there is the same class delineation between the higher end stores and regular stores, which is just reality. There’s no need to trash the lower end stores, ofc, one just has to be more careful picking items there (read the contents).

    • Disagree: utu, Yevardian
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    Why do utu and Yevardian disagree with LatW?

    Replies: @LatW

    , @Dmitry
    @LatW


    American wine
     
    But if you like less famous grapes, it seems countries like Italy and France have a lot of specific ones.

    I'm not at all knowledgeable about wine. But I mean e.g. if you like some taste of a specific grape like "Greco Di Tufo", then it seems you need to buy the Italian wine.


    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

     

    Lol Utu is definitely somekind of upper class connoisseur. And Yevardian is from Armenia, so probably fussy if they don't sell orange wine in Whole Foods.

    Then there is AaronB who will start writing about "terroir" if he was here. But how much of AaronB's income is wasted on tariffs for imported EU wine from Campagna or Loire Valley. And then Trump has added things like 25% tariff on Scottish whisky in the USA (25%!).

    Again I don't know anything about wine. I did remember like some Californian brands for Merlot tastes different to the South American ones? However, my knowledge and sample far too small to say this is "terroir".

    Replies: @utu, @LatW

    , @AP
    @LatW

    At the start of Covid we switched to Wholefoods because the public there was much more likely to be masked, and noticed an improved quality in seafood and meats versus the regular grocery store. However, neighborhood butchers and local East European ethnic stores are as good or better than Wholefoods at a much lower price.

  58. @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen


    the Russian army is perhaps the most corrupt institution in Russia.
     
    So, similar dynamic to the US, if accurate. I suppose that Russia can't afford the scope of wasted military spending that the US seems addicted to.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    How corrupt is its US counterpart, seeing that America spends more than the next 7 leading countries in defense spending combined?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Mikhail

    Clearly there is no comparison in terms of total scope or scale. I was referring more what Philip Owen said as per the Russian army being the most corrupt institution in Russia.

    I would assume that military spending is somewhat universally among the more unaccountable and corrupt national expenditures due to it's status as a political "sacred cow".

    Don't worry, if America spends as much as the next 7 combined, I'll bet we can throw money away on pointless boondoggles more than the next 17 combined. The Pentagon is working hard to make certain that those Ruskies will never come close to closing the critical Pissing Money Away Gap!

  59. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Thulean Friend


    It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst
     
    Nonsense. I haven't come across a clearer thinking and more talented geopolitical analyst on the Internet as Karlin.

    Replies: @Jim Christian, @Mikhail

    Numerous quality folks out there.

  60. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    On that German agriculture minister; I don't find what he's saying to be that outlandishly evil, at least from my perspective in the American food system.

    Food is cheap in the US, but artificially so, with things like corn and soy monocrops heavily government subsidized. We pay for the true cost alright, just not at the checkout. This does lead to a variety of negative effects on the environment, health, and farmer livelihood. This includes societal costs from the ever increasing push to consolidate farms into larger and larger entities.

    80 years ago or so, in my part of the world, a man could raise a respectable family on a 15 or 20 head dairy. Now a 500 cow dairy is considered too small to make it. This was a shift that was engineered and pushed at the government level, not something that "just happened". Needless to say, it's been a disaster for the vitality of rural communities and for the ability of young farmers to start up. Farm decentralization should be a big plank in the MAGA revitalization, if such a thing ever came to fruition.

    The dairy farmers that I know are loosing money badly right now. Fuel, grain, and other inputs are skyrocketing while the milk price keeps dropping. One farmer would sell his whole herd tomorrow, but there is no market to buy the cows. He'd be better off financially to sell them for beef, so he holds on while he can.

    So, I do think there is a strong argument that food should be more expensive to the consumer, but that the government should get out of the subsidies, so that we pay the true cost.

    I'm not sure what the agriculture policy in Germany looks like for context. Maybe German_Reader would have some idea?

    Replies: @songbird, @A123, @Philip Owen

    In the UK, the 20 dairy cows that delivered a decent living in the early 1970’s were heavily subsidised even than. The subsidy went tothe farmer so kept the smaller farmers going. Inside the EU, the subsidy moved to the product. Thanks to overproduction, the subsidy was cut. Smaller farms were squeezed. Now as you say, 100’s of cows aer needed.

    Meanwhile in Russia, 2000 milk cows and maybe 5000 animals are considered a minimum farm size. I talk to farms with 20,000 milkers. They are not for the Russian market but India, Thailand and China. Milk quality from Russian owned farms is still poor. Low levels of solids. Not much good for cheese.

  61. @Thulean Friend
    Jeff Bezos lost $40 billion in a divorce but he looks happier than ever.

    https://i.imgur.com/FztuUAS.jpg

    He also made the correct move of shaving his hair instead of trying to latch onto a fake toupé like Musk when he started to bald.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Barbarossa, @Pericles, @Philip Owen, @melanf

    That’s happy?

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen

    I agree, it looks like a deeply desperate shot.

    What I don't don't get is why in the hell one would ditch your wife with whom you've had 4 kids, to take up with an overripe trollop who looks like shes had a couple too many plastic surgeries?! That's just stupid, sad, and demonstrates poor taste. I honestly think that Bezo's ex is better looking than his current tart.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Showmethereal

  62. @Yevardian
    @German_reader


    It’s partly class snobbery. Greens are the party of well-off people employed by the state (civil servants, teachers etc.) who can afford buying expensive bio products and who look down on the proles who go shopping at cheap supermarkets like ALDI.
     
    Even mostly, I've witnessed too many conversations (e.g. forestry, a working-class guy mentioning how his father experienced green activists putting spikes in the sawmills and seriously injuring people, his interlocutor simply said with disgusting arrogance 'ok.. I'm not having this conversation') growing up not to notice it.

    It's a shame that enviromentalism has been so totally commandeered by those on the cultural extreme-left (funny, considering it originated with romantic nationalists and conservatives), and now in reaction the mainstream right takes equally imbecilic takes.
    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I'm agnostic on the topic), every other major enviromental problem seems to have become relatively ignored. Most seriously, the still constantly-increasing amounts of plastic, which, even if the worst predictions of athropogenic global warming are true, I feel things like microplastics circulating everywhere, as far as the Mariana Trench, are much more concerning.

    I mean, evolution has dealt with rapid climatic changes dozens of times over, but the ubiquitousness of indistible and often toxic compouds breaking down far enough to be ingested by microscopic organisms seems unprecedented.


    But this isn't really my area, I don't know if anyone within the hard sciences regularly comments here, I mostly just get my takes on energy issues from Vaclav Smil.

    Replies: @German_reader, @Philip Owen

    The British Tories have a green streak. Maggie Thatcher set up the Montreal Protocol, drove the IPCC into existence and put a moratorium on nuclear power. Johnson and his present wife have just promoted COP26 on climate change with vigour. Environmentalism is quite selfish. It is about self preservation, not the social good.

  63. @Thulean Friend
    @songbird

    China recently disclosed that their fusion reactor had an uptime of nearly 17 minutes. The previous record was 100 seconds. They have several fusion projects, this was the so-called EAST reactor (Tokamak version).

    There's an international effort in France on the same technology called ITER. It's not even constructed yet (scheduled to happen in 2025 and likely after 2030 due to chronic delays). The budget went from $6 billion to well past $35 billion now.

    If this is an indication of the future, then I'd bet on China making it happen before NASA.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    Just for the record – I think western media got it confused about 2027 for the lunar base. What China said was that they would be working between 2022 and 2027 with Russia on how they will go about the lunar base and other space issues (I assume the Chinese space station that is currently being put into full usage). it is a China and Russia joint project… it doesn’t appear they were saying 2027. I think they are still shooting for 2030+

  64. @Pericles
    @Thulean Friend

    The US white population has even shrunk in absolute numbers, so I think they are overall demographically worse off and in a worse trend than China.

    NYT: "Census Shows Sharply Growing Numbers of Hispanic, Asian and Multiracial Americans"

    The white population [of America] declined for the first time in history. People who identify themselves as white on the census form have been decreasing as a share of the country’s population since the 1960s, when the United States lifted strict ethnic quotas aimed at keeping the country Northern and Western European.
    That drop, of 2.6 percent, was driven in part by the aging of the white population — the median age was 44 in 2019, compared with 30 for Hispanics — and a long-running decline in the birthrate. Some social scientists theorized that another potential reason for the decrease was that more Americans who previously identified as white on the census are now choosing more than one race.

     

    https://archive.ph/PYU9w

    (I don't think the fake latinos and fake indigenes, while existent, are numerous enough to matter in raw numbers.)

    NYT: "It was a terrifying census for white nationalists"

    https://archive.ph/GaSml

    Replies: @Thulean Friend, @showmethereal

    Yeah western Europe is basically only growing because of immigrants (Eastern Europe is in decline overall). The white population is going into decline in much of Europe…. I’m not sure why anyone thought the US would be different. Likewise Japan is declining – with South Korea not far behind (they are below replacement)…. China is heading that way (Chinese in Taiwan – Singapore – Hong Kong were already below replacement)….

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @showmethereal

    Yeah, to take a close example, Sweden now has a population of about 10 million ... but at least 2 million of those are non-Swedes. It's difficult to be more precise because, for some reason, ethnical statistics are not tracked very carefully or at all.

    We also have France and Belgium in fairly deep demographic trouble, and, while I can't recall the specifics at the moment, likely the UK too. There are presumably more but just those taken alone is pretty bad.

    Replies: @sher singh

  65. Re: https://www.trtworld.com/europe/russia-faces-backlash-over-closure-of-prominent-rights-group-memorial-53102

    Via Twitter, Karlin has been good at busting on the BS concerning Memorial’s status:

  66. @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there?
     
    I don't think you need to worry more than about any other supermarket chain, generally the quality of their products should be fine, it's just that it's got a certain low-class image in Germany, because their prices are low and the assortment of wares is somewhat limited (also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles).
    Of course the usual caveats apply, if you want quality meat, you're probably better off to some butcher's shop.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles

    Brand names have lost a lot of their prestige in my eyes, with globohomo, and so I feel an odd convergence with the Left, where they used to be saying stuff like CocaCola is bad because they are trying to buy up all the clean water in Africa and sell it to Africans, and I didn’t really care about it. Frankly, I prefer store brands now.

    What is interesting with supermarkets is that sometimes the lower end ones pay their workers the most.

    Don’t know much about Aldis specifically, but in America, in my little experience with it, the main detraction seems to be that they have big crowds and relatively few cashiers. I once saw evidence that rats had gnawed on a bag of flour, but I think that is pretty par for the course with supermarkets in general, in some locations – though most people wouldn’t like to think so.

  67. @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    tasteless lives of anodyne plutocrats and parasites, Dmitri
     
    At least it is a post that describes real life though, as you can talk about the people directly, or become confused with discussions about the extremely indirect concepts ("political ideologies", "countries", "GDP growth") which are just derived from that reality.

    In this forum, you often read people become comically lost in arguing about meaningless "teams" and concepts, which they were just fed to them by such people, and which already have a response "ready made". The response of rightwing people, is already "readymade" or contained inside an opposing concept. Because they are built just like scripts.

    For example, when you see a large corporation, it seems very impressive and official. When a young graduate is joining on a graduate course, they might feel excited that they are joining a real institution. It feels like entering a great mansion or castle.

    But when they are old, they might know the managers and the operation, and will understand it is just some people with certain formal agreements between each other. There is not really this existing company with its symbols/icons, "corporate culture", etc. It was all just a dream.

    It's actually like animals throwing up some camouflage to seem larger than they are. And humans are very vulnerable to being lost in the patterns of the camouflage.

    And of course, these people (like all people) are also not the "mature adults" that are presented in their business life. They are the same kids you remember from your playground or classroom, and our adult persona is another camouflage.

    You'll be very confused if you were trying to understand Amazon, from the code used in its website, or it's symbols, corporate, ideology ,etc. On the other hand, it's a just a person who is selling you some things. Bezos' mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.

    And this is the same for much of the politics and history. People are very confused arguing about ideologies, political parties, and countries, as if they were real objects. This sounds very grandiose and prestigious, even magical. It's of course, just indirect ways to refer to what some people are doing. And those behaviors you might understand intuitively when you were in the school playground.

    That's not to say, that people will not learn from improving their understanding of political theory e.g. Hegel, Adam Smith, Marx, etc, and should just read "Hello magazine". But looking at what you rulers are really doing, would be healthy for the society, to prevent some of the confusions.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    When you explain it like that, you have a very good point, and it does certainly reflect how the vast majority of everyday people actually experience and view the world. But that’s easy to forget for most of us nerds and autistes (including our benevolent overlord himself?) commenting here, who naturally prefer to see everything in terms of abstractions and systems.
    But we do have a few bigbrains such as A123 who interpret politics et all in an extremely personalised manner, so it’s not all one-sided.

    Bezos’ mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.

    Ok, but you can take this too far, that applies to understanding a man’s (and by extension, their company) drives and goals, but it doesn’t do much at all to explain the means, which is arguably more important.

    Since we’re on the topic of personalities, alongside extremely vain businesspeople or politicians that revel in the media spotlight (somewhat like a pig in a trough), there must also be many equally (or more) influential/powerful figures that the world simply never hears about, since they prefer to keep a low profile.

    Of course, politicians by definition are public and media-focused figures, but I wonder if anyone could point out businesspeople with personal convinctions that greatly affect the world we live in. I’d like to say there a probably dozens of private-minded Chinese billionaires or party-functionaries in this category, but that’s more likely due to our own ignorance about the country.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    extremely vain businesspeople or politicians that revel in the media spotlight

     

    Lol well what about Emin? This "musical genius" responsible for building a lot of Moscow and creating some of the more funny parts of the Trump Russia conspiracy theory.

    Here is some of banal reality which underlies our grand talks about politics. Aliev's son in law that builds New Moscow, wanted to make really bad music videos with Trump and sent to Trump's hotel room prostitutes. Some years later, this will enter somekind of world mythology.

    This is when he made this video with Trump.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuZUNjFsgS8


    low profile.. businesspeople with personal convinctions that greatly affect the world we live in
     
    Much of the wealthy and important people in Russia are quiet really and behave like cuttlefish. They are the people who mainly control politics, but much of their activities are not very publicized to the ordinary people.

    One of the "weird" or "suspicious" behaviors were doing is moving money outside Russia before 2014, so they are insulated from the devaluation, which was not fairly publicized to the ordinary people.

    I should have been so suspicious already a decade ago. Because I know a rich person and a decade ago, buying a coffee in the cafe, was with a Deutsche Bank card given by parents. That's even small bank accounts for daily transactions are given to the children, have to be from a different country.

    Yet in the public media there was no talking about this. I guess you either knew this stuff or not and it should just seem obvious. Myself "not", as a naive middle class person, category unfortunately.


    probably dozens of private-minded Chinese billionaires or party-functionaries in this category

     

    There was an interesting documentary on YouTube I posted before here in a different context, about the "migration" of some of the ruling class children to Canada (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZs2i3Bpxx4.) You can also see a lot of those people in London.

    Probably their activities, will probably not be too publicized in local media. As the local people are usually only shown a part of the activity. Canadians only see a very small part of it, and China's public only another part. A "whole cycle" of their activity is more difficult for people to see.

  68. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird


    With Artemis missions, NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before.
     
    This will be entertaining as hell if nothing else. Hope she is hot like Liutenant Uhura.

    https://biobreak.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/mirror_mirror.jpg

    Replies: @songbird

    IIRC, there were a couple of unexpected events with astronauts, where I don’t think that a diversity hire would have cut it. For example, on one lunar mission, there was some knob that they were supposed to turn, and it broke off, with only seconds to spare until liftoff. (maybe solved with digital controls?)
    ____
    It was funny when they made Sulu gay. I mean, obviously it was politics. But, the more I think of it now, he probably would be less gay in the Mirrorverse.

  69. @Mikhail
    @Barbarossa

    How corrupt is its US counterpart, seeing that America spends more than the next 7 leading countries in defense spending combined?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Clearly there is no comparison in terms of total scope or scale. I was referring more what Philip Owen said as per the Russian army being the most corrupt institution in Russia.

    I would assume that military spending is somewhat universally among the more unaccountable and corrupt national expenditures due to it’s status as a political “sacred cow”.

    Don’t worry, if America spends as much as the next 7 combined, I’ll bet we can throw money away on pointless boondoggles more than the next 17 combined. The Pentagon is working hard to make certain that those Ruskies will never come close to closing the critical Pissing Money Away Gap!

  70. @utu
    @Dmitry

    Drop in sperm count grows with popularity of oral and anal sex. The sperm just gets discourage as it finds it futile to be fertile.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    That sounds a bit puritan. I’m fairly confident that these practices (you seem to be implying yourself to be above such.. perversions) were as popular (if not moreso) in the past, due to reliable contraception not being available. And speaking of ‘futile emissions’, that sort of thing most be absolutely negligible when merely comparing to the epidemic levels of westoid inceldom, combined with the omnipresent ubiquity of free HD internet pornography, now accessible to any child with a ‘smartphone’, where practically anything can be found with a few illiterate fingertaps.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  71. @Philip Owen
    @Thulean Friend

    That's happy?

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I agree, it looks like a deeply desperate shot.

    What I don’t don’t get is why in the hell one would ditch your wife with whom you’ve had 4 kids, to take up with an overripe trollop who looks like shes had a couple too many plastic surgeries?! That’s just stupid, sad, and demonstrates poor taste. I honestly think that Bezo’s ex is better looking than his current tart.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Barbarossa

    Ok, since Dmitri and 'Thulean' Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard?
    It's definitely harder than it first appears.

    Also got me thinking about the practically co-ruling 'power-couples' of history, e.g. the Ceaușescus, the Perons, Akhenaton & Nefertiti, Justinian & Theodora, Ferdinand & Isabella, Catherine & the entire Russian officer corps, and so on.

    Replies: @LatW, @Yahya

    , @Showmethereal
    @Barbarossa

    Yeah she looks like shes had too much surgery and had sex with probably 50 too many men.. But if he was just Jeff the mailman - he probably wouldn't make it into her next dozen or so count.. The poor guy is losing it..

  72. @Thulean Friend
    A few Open Threads ago, I forcefully argued that in the event of a Nazi Germany victory on mainland Europe, the world that we live in today would not have been materially different.

    I noted that capitalism has an internal logic of its own, following a rhythm not dependent on external exigencies or political preferences. This is playing out in China. Xi Jinping has been drumming on about 'common prosperity' but rhetoric aside, the most consequential economic policies have not substantially changed:

    https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1476871039028277249

    Socialism and communism as economic systems appear to be dead. This so-called "Cold War 2.0" is decidedly more boring than the old one, for at least there was an ideological contest at stake back then. On issues like climate change, China and the US also see eye to eye. I am happy about this, but this also means that the ideological fervor of the 20th century has given way to a stale technocratic consensus, where the only real fight is who gets to be top dog in a system all agree to the basic ground rules rather than which set of ideas should rule. Yawn.

    Replies: @Derer

    Socialism and communism as economic systems appear to be dead.

    For some reason you forgot about 2009 one trillion “socialist” bailout of corrupt crony capitalists. Taxpayers paid twice to corporate bums. That just tells you who controls the government.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Derer

    corporate socialism is the opposite of socialism.

  73. @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen

    I agree, it looks like a deeply desperate shot.

    What I don't don't get is why in the hell one would ditch your wife with whom you've had 4 kids, to take up with an overripe trollop who looks like shes had a couple too many plastic surgeries?! That's just stupid, sad, and demonstrates poor taste. I honestly think that Bezo's ex is better looking than his current tart.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Showmethereal

    Ok, since Dmitri and ‘Thulean’ Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard?
    It’s definitely harder than it first appears.

    Also got me thinking about the practically co-ruling ‘power-couples’ of history, e.g. the Ceaușescus, the Perons, Akhenaton & Nefertiti, Justinian & Theodora, Ferdinand & Isabella, Catherine & the entire Russian officer corps, and so on.

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Yevardian


    point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste
     
    Emperor Akihito & Empress Michiko.
    , @Yahya
    @Yevardian


    Ok, since Dmitri and ‘Thulean’ Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard? It’s definitely harder than it first appears.
     
    I'd say both Bashar Al-Assad and King Abdullah of Jordan did a good job in the marital sphere.

    Queen Rania of Jordan. Business graduate of the American University in Cairo (AUC). Jordanian of Palestinian origin. Sunni Muslim. Married to Abdullah II of Jordan since 1993.


    https://see.news/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/queen-rania-1000x1000jpg.jpg


    Asma Al-Assad of Syria. Graduate of King's College London with first-class honors in Computer Science and French literature. Sunni Muslim of Syrian origin. Speaks Enligh, Arabic, French and Spanish. Married to Bashar since 2000.


    https://www.al-monitor.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2020/06/RTSBIGF.JPG/RTSBIGF.JPG?h=088a5503&itok=15gsbVUO


    In terms of looks, i'd say its a 2-way tie between the two. Frau Assad seems a bit more intelligent than Queen Rania.

    Replies: @AP

  74. @Yevardian
    @Barbarossa

    Ok, since Dmitri and 'Thulean' Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard?
    It's definitely harder than it first appears.

    Also got me thinking about the practically co-ruling 'power-couples' of history, e.g. the Ceaușescus, the Perons, Akhenaton & Nefertiti, Justinian & Theodora, Ferdinand & Isabella, Catherine & the entire Russian officer corps, and so on.

    Replies: @LatW, @Yahya

    point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste

    Emperor Akihito & Empress Michiko.

  75. Tesla increased its deliveries far more than expected. Its stock is going to open really high in the New York stock exchange (Monday) now, after the recording breaking deliveries, and likely climb over the week.

    Even I’m aware that the stocks are objectively overpriced. But this is a question of group psychology in the short run and these kinds of headlines cause a rapid climb if temporarily. It’s inevitable that the stock will rapidly climb in New York this week.

    It is funny to see watch how it pay for a few bottles of wine every time it happens after it dips, without condoning this.

    As for Tesla’s achievements (independently of its overpriced stocks). Factories do not open yet in Berlin and Texas, and yet they are already above a million cars a year production rates. It is following the optimistic scenario. I remember posting graphs on this forum almost 4 years ago, when they were producing the first 20,000 Model 3 cars.

    Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers

    Replies: @Shortsword

  76. @Yevardian
    @Dmitry

    When you explain it like that, you have a very good point, and it does certainly reflect how the vast majority of everyday people actually experience and view the world. But that's easy to forget for most of us nerds and autistes (including our benevolent overlord himself?) commenting here, who naturally prefer to see everything in terms of abstractions and systems.
    But we do have a few bigbrains such as A123 who interpret politics et all in an extremely personalised manner, so it's not all one-sided.



    Bezos’ mother understands Amazon intuitively, if she remembers cleaning after her son as a child.
     
    Ok, but you can take this too far, that applies to understanding a man's (and by extension, their company) drives and goals, but it doesn't do much at all to explain the means, which is arguably more important.

    Since we're on the topic of personalities, alongside extremely vain businesspeople or politicians that revel in the media spotlight (somewhat like a pig in a trough), there must also be many equally (or more) influential/powerful figures that the world simply never hears about, since they prefer to keep a low profile.

    Of course, politicians by definition are public and media-focused figures, but I wonder if anyone could point out businesspeople with personal convinctions that greatly affect the world we live in. I'd like to say there a probably dozens of private-minded Chinese billionaires or party-functionaries in this category, but that's more likely due to our own ignorance about the country.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    extremely vain businesspeople or politicians that revel in the media spotlight

    Lol well what about Emin? This “musical genius” responsible for building a lot of Moscow and creating some of the more funny parts of the Trump Russia conspiracy theory.

    Here is some of banal reality which underlies our grand talks about politics. Aliev’s son in law that builds New Moscow, wanted to make really bad music videos with Trump and sent to Trump’s hotel room prostitutes. Some years later, this will enter somekind of world mythology.

    This is when he made this video with Trump.

    low profile.. businesspeople with personal convinctions that greatly affect the world we live in

    Much of the wealthy and important people in Russia are quiet really and behave like cuttlefish. They are the people who mainly control politics, but much of their activities are not very publicized to the ordinary people.

    One of the “weird” or “suspicious” behaviors were doing is moving money outside Russia before 2014, so they are insulated from the devaluation, which was not fairly publicized to the ordinary people.

    I should have been so suspicious already a decade ago. Because I know a rich person and a decade ago, buying a coffee in the cafe, was with a Deutsche Bank card given by parents. That’s even small bank accounts for daily transactions are given to the children, have to be from a different country.

    Yet in the public media there was no talking about this. I guess you either knew this stuff or not and it should just seem obvious. Myself “not”, as a naive middle class person, category unfortunately.

    probably dozens of private-minded Chinese billionaires or party-functionaries in this category

    There was an interesting documentary on YouTube I posted before here in a different context, about the “migration” of some of the ruling class children to Canada (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZs2i3Bpxx4.) You can also see a lot of those people in London.

    Probably their activities, will probably not be too publicized in local media. As the local people are usually only shown a part of the activity. Canadians only see a very small part of it, and China’s public only another part. A “whole cycle” of their activity is more difficult for people to see.

  77. What to make of this idea that Neanderthals were burning forests?
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2302065-neanderthals-may-have-cleared-a-european-forest-with-fire-or-tools/

    One of the wilder theories is that they were practicing an early form of agriculture.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    Hunter gatherers burn forest to increase the amount of pasture for grazing animals.

    Replies: @songbird

  78. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all.
     
    The higher end grocery stores in the US are of utmost quality. Especially smaller, local co-op type stores. They will mostly carry locally produced, very clean (non-GMO, no hormone, no corn syrup, organic, etc), often times family farm sourced, nicely packaged items, in a great variety. Including meat and seafood, good wines (both local and imported), higher quality supplements and cosmetics. But they will be a bit pricey. The way to go about this is to buy a smaller amount of higher quality items (they may be lower calorie and lower sugar content and more nutritionally dense at the same time). Unless you have a big family, ofc, but even then you can buy a lot of the produce, bulk staples at the co-op and maybe meat somewhere else. More commonly than in Europe, you can buy a lot of stuff in bulk, such as nuts, cereal, all types of exotic spices, teas, etc. So Mr Hack has nothing to worry about. :) Of course, these shops also carry imported items, like German and French cosmetics, wine. Although American wine is the same quality but cheaper.

    And, of course, there is the same class delineation between the higher end stores and regular stores, which is just reality. There's no need to trash the lower end stores, ofc, one just has to be more careful picking items there (read the contents).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry, @AP

    Why do utu and Yevardian disagree with LatW?

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @LatW
    @Mr. Hack

    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  79. @Thulean Friend
    @Matra


    Former commenter here Andrei Martyanov did an interview for Geopolitics & Empire. Long time commenters here probably won’t be shocked at how he laughs at NATO capabilities and says NATO will be easily defeated if it gets into a conventional with more advanced Russia. IIRC he fell out with AK over the latter’s disparaging remarks about sovoks or the USSR or something like that.
     
    Skimming the interview, at minutes 26-27 he starts ranting that he doesn't care about "zeroes and ones" and computers and clearly displays his boomer tendencies. He thinks an economy should only be judged on things you can touch or eat. It is not hard to see why AK had disdain for him, even if I think AK himself is as a mediocre analyst, I can't see him making these sorts of cardinal errors.

    As for "NATO easily defeated", given reality of MAD the entire question is moot. There will never be a full conventional war for obvious reasons so making arguments based on a non-eventuality strikes me as a waste of time.

    In general, I find Martynov to be of limited utility. I would only read him on narrow technical topics like submarines or jets, and even then I'd use a pinch of salt or more since these discussions tend to be polluted by nationalist flag-waving, which cloud people's judgements and prevents them from dispassionate analysis.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Jim Christian, @AP

    His biography (publicly available) is that he was a junior Soviet military officer from a second tier military academy, who in the early 90s left for the USA and worked as a tutor for smart kids (someone his age should have done better in life, this doesn’t speak well for him). He is useful and interesting in the sense that not many actual Soviet military officers write and argue in English with people, so exposure to his POV is good. But take what he says with a big grain of salt and no need to idealize him.

    Commenter Twinkie easily bested him in a series of arguments about World War II.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP

    Martyanov's background and content are qualitatively better than the Moscow based Pavel Felgenhauer. For the purpose of having someone with more agreeable Western mass media/Western mass media influenced spin, Felgenhauer is the one typically getting airtime, unlike Martyanov and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @AP, @Aedib

    , @Dmitry
    @AP

    He was a very interesting commentator because he actually knows a lot of culture and literature. He walking all these books and writers he read, which very few other people have read those things or that quantity of literature. His political views were pretty crazy and bizarre, but that is true for many people even not his age. I didn't realize he was quite so old though. Deserves some more respect from the netizens if just for his age alone. But then he was often writing angry and aggressively with political views, that is not where he senses much of what is really happening.

    It would prefer to read him, if he was writing more about literature or culture. Or about his first person experiences.

    Replies: @AP

  80. @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    Why do utu and Yevardian disagree with LatW?

    Replies: @LatW

    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    I'm no wine connoisseur and generally try to buy a bottle in the $10 range. I've come across a California wine company called Apothic, that puts out some interesting red wines that you can still find at around $9/bottle. Last night I tried their cabernet sauvignon that was quite drinkable, IMHO. Others that I've tried in the past were pretty good too. I haven't tried any of their white wines. They seem to be marketing towards a hipster and gay clientele, although they've captured my interest too. The regular website price for their wines is $11 although you can find it at around $8 -$9 here in Phoenixland. Have you tried their output?

    https://www.apothic.com/

    Replies: @LatW

  81. @Thulean Friend
    China likely peaked demographically in 2021.

    Interestingly, the US population growth rate in 2021 was just 0.1%. The main attack on China is that they have "terrible demographics". Maybe, but I don't see the US doing much better.

    China also seems more internally stable to me than the US. Polarisation in the US is reaching comical levels, with even something as simple as vaccination campaigns becoming weaponised and politicised.

    https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1476693654400081922

    Still think the US will have the upper hand vis-a-vis China given its alliance network but I just want to puncture the common attack themes against China since most of them make little sense.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Dmitry

    internally stable to me than the US

    It’s a predictable dynamic, as a result of the collapse of the USSR, American culture losing some of their sense of “cosmic role”.

    In the second half of the 20th century, a lot of their culture’s identity has been derived from their position in the Cold War.

    This is not just merger of cultural identity with capitalist ideology, but also some brutal aspects of capitalism could be accepted and sublimated with a sense of meaning into a clash of world civilization.

    When the Soviet Union is not longer pretending to act as a contrast or alternative, the sense of cosmic role of America is turning inwards, or lost in becoming a world culture.

    In Russia, is sadly now culturally on the trashheap of history, and only the authorities can robotically create fake acting, on non-important topics, as a vulgar form of opposition. Chinese culture unfortunately appears stillborn and doesn’t present sufficient contrast to stimulate the American culture sphere. My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.

    Perhaps it sounds funny, but the boycotted 1980s Olympic might be seen one day, as the premonitory goodbye for this 20th century “Agon”. Some symbolic moment of the world spirit, when people were suddenly expressing sadness as they were singing goodbye to the Olympic bear who flew away from Moscow, goes back to hide in the forest, and did not return.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Dmitry


    My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.
     
    Don't know how common it is, but I've heard that some talented Japanese are beginning to jump ship to China because of stagnant wages and long hours - for instance, in anime.

    IMO, it is an interesting question, when most Americans will begin to feel like they are overshadowed by China and what will cause them to feel this way. Right now, short of some major change, it don't think they will feel that way by watching Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.

    Winning a race to the Moon would seem like the possibly easy way to do it. What will happen, if it doesn't come easily? Maybe, war.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    , @Philip Owen
    @Dmitry

    Russia dominates children's animation. Niroshka TV and Masha and the Bear are in the top 5 (last time I looked) most watched children's films on You Tube. Masha has often held #2 position. If Russia had sense they would build on this with coproductions et al.

  82. @LatW
    @Mr. Hack

    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I’m no wine connoisseur and generally try to buy a bottle in the \$10 range. I’ve come across a California wine company called Apothic, that puts out some interesting red wines that you can still find at around \$9/bottle. Last night I tried their cabernet sauvignon that was quite drinkable, IMHO. Others that I’ve tried in the past were pretty good too. I haven’t tried any of their white wines. They seem to be marketing towards a hipster and gay clientele, although they’ve captured my interest too. The regular website price for their wines is \$11 although you can find it at around \$8 -\$9 here in Phoenixland. Have you tried their output?

    https://www.apothic.com/

    • LOL: sher singh
    • Replies: @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Have you tried their output?
     
    Yes, I've tried their red once or twice. Frankly, what stands out about this brand is their logo, it's a little bit intense. One that I like and can recommend is Chateau St Michelle, they have a lot of wines in that price range but also more expensive ones. What is interesting, is that some New World grapes are actually grown in basalt soil.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

  83. @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    His biography (publicly available) is that he was a junior Soviet military officer from a second tier military academy, who in the early 90s left for the USA and worked as a tutor for smart kids (someone his age should have done better in life, this doesn't speak well for him). He is useful and interesting in the sense that not many actual Soviet military officers write and argue in English with people, so exposure to his POV is good. But take what he says with a big grain of salt and no need to idealize him.

    Commenter Twinkie easily bested him in a series of arguments about World War II.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Dmitry

    Martyanov’s background and content are qualitatively better than the Moscow based Pavel Felgenhauer. For the purpose of having someone with more agreeable Western mass media/Western mass media influenced spin, Felgenhauer is the one typically getting airtime, unlike Martyanov and Mark Sleboda.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mikhail

    I’m not familiar with Felgenhauer, but you are probably correct because Felgenhauer is popular with Americans and Americans are about as objective and accurate when they describe Russia, as Russian sources are when describing Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib

    , @Aedib
    @Mikhail

    Martyanov and The Saker belong to the team “We Russians are soooooooo powerful” which is a sort of mirror of the way bigger “We Americans are soooooooo powerful” team played by Stratfor, The Heritage Foundation, etc.
    While both “stronk teams” exercise in wishful thinking, they are basically inoffensive. The danger may arise if some politicians take decisions about the real world based in such a type of delusions. It seems to me that Russia is led by people with a ferocious and pragmatic realism but current USA no so. People like Kissinger are out of the last administrations.
    I recognize that Martyanov have knowledge about weapon systems while Saker sometimes seems to be out of the reality. Some technical analysis from Martyanov are very interesting but for geopolitical analysis I prefer people like Alexander Mercouris (pro-Russian bias but within the real world) rather than Saker.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  84. @AP
    @Thulean Friend

    His biography (publicly available) is that he was a junior Soviet military officer from a second tier military academy, who in the early 90s left for the USA and worked as a tutor for smart kids (someone his age should have done better in life, this doesn't speak well for him). He is useful and interesting in the sense that not many actual Soviet military officers write and argue in English with people, so exposure to his POV is good. But take what he says with a big grain of salt and no need to idealize him.

    Commenter Twinkie easily bested him in a series of arguments about World War II.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Dmitry

    He was a very interesting commentator because he actually knows a lot of culture and literature. He walking all these books and writers he read, which very few other people have read those things or that quantity of literature. His political views were pretty crazy and bizarre, but that is true for many people even not his age. I didn’t realize he was quite so old though. Deserves some more respect from the netizens if just for his age alone. But then he was often writing angry and aggressively with political views, that is not where he senses much of what is really happening.

    It would prefer to read him, if he was writing more about literature or culture. Or about his first person experiences.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Dmitry

    Most educated Russians over 45 are well read. It was one of the few good features of the Soviet system. I remember fondly, back in the 90s, observing the people reading literature on the Moscow metro. Over time it devolved to trash books and finally phones.

    At a party back then my wife was once surprised to find an American with whom she could have an intelligent discussion of Latin American literature. Then the mystery was solved - the guy was a professor of that subject.

    So Martyianov is just a Russian guy over 45 who happens to have had a brief and mediocre (low rank) career in the Soviet military in his youth, who also writes in English and is willing to share his views with people who otherwise would never have encountered and interacted with a Soviet officer.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

  85. @Dmitry
    @Mr. Hack

    Aldi and Lidl are some of the best supermarkets in Europe. It's really a good value shop. I'm such a fanboy of them that I would have posters of these German supermarkets in my walls.

    But when I young I actually had studied a little with such kind of German people whose family are billionaires owning such chains, and they were not exactly the less disruptive or most sympathetic classmates.

    I'm not really sure what to say about such divergence of the consumer and personal experience. But maybe I'm not the only one with such experiences or divided perceptions.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I’m not totally following you here, Dmitry. I think that you had imbibed a little too much bubbly the night before? What you’re stating though sounds quite interesting about the upper class German kids
    though…Happy New Year!

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mr. Hack

    I was once in the house of the mayor of a major German city, hanging out with his teenage daughter and her female friends, but I think they were only upper middle class, so Dmitry has me beat.

  86. @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    I'm no wine connoisseur and generally try to buy a bottle in the $10 range. I've come across a California wine company called Apothic, that puts out some interesting red wines that you can still find at around $9/bottle. Last night I tried their cabernet sauvignon that was quite drinkable, IMHO. Others that I've tried in the past were pretty good too. I haven't tried any of their white wines. They seem to be marketing towards a hipster and gay clientele, although they've captured my interest too. The regular website price for their wines is $11 although you can find it at around $8 -$9 here in Phoenixland. Have you tried their output?

    https://www.apothic.com/

    Replies: @LatW

    Have you tried their output?

    Yes, I’ve tried their red once or twice. Frankly, what stands out about this brand is their logo, it’s a little bit intense. One that I like and can recommend is Chateau St Michelle, they have a lot of wines in that price range but also more expensive ones. What is interesting, is that some New World grapes are actually grown in basalt soil.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    apotheca:

    "In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine."

    Intense name? Their wines do have an element of intenseness to them. I do think the correct term would be "fruit forward". But I do like a wine where you can actually taste the grape from which it's made from, the "tannins", "coffee" "leathery" and "peppery" profiles are interesting, but less important to me. I'll keep an eye out for the output of Chateu St Michelle, thanks for the tip! Apotheca's "claim to fame" appears to be their ability to blend and marry different wine profiles into one unique wine.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    apotheca:

    "In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine."

    Intense name? I think that the word's association with a pharmacy came later. Their wines do have an element of intenseness to them. I do think the correct term would be "fruit forward". But I do like a wine where you can actually taste the grape from which it's made from, the "tannins", "coffee" "leathery" and "peppery" profiles are interesting, but less important to me. I'll keep an eye out for the output of Chateu St Michelle, thanks for the tip! Apotheca's "claim to fame" appears to be their ability to blend and marry different wine profiles together into one unique wine. I've tried their "red", their "crush" :"black"and now their cabernet sauvignon, and they all seem to have an intenseness and I would say a richness to the taste that doesn't inspire me to drink more than two glasses. I think that this is good. :-)

    Replies: @LatW

  87. @showmethereal
    @Pericles

    Yeah western Europe is basically only growing because of immigrants (Eastern Europe is in decline overall). The white population is going into decline in much of Europe.... I'm not sure why anyone thought the US would be different. Likewise Japan is declining - with South Korea not far behind (they are below replacement).... China is heading that way (Chinese in Taiwan - Singapore - Hong Kong were already below replacement)....

    Replies: @Pericles

    Yeah, to take a close example, Sweden now has a population of about 10 million … but at least 2 million of those are non-Swedes. It’s difficult to be more precise because, for some reason, ethnical statistics are not tracked very carefully or at all.

    We also have France and Belgium in fairly deep demographic trouble, and, while I can’t recall the specifics at the moment, likely the UK too. There are presumably more but just those taken alone is pretty bad.

    • Thanks: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Pericles

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/640459736919048202/927099677667635230/IMG_5406.png

    Replies: @AP, @sudden death, @Cutler

  88. @Dmitry
    Tesla increased its deliveries far more than expected. Its stock is going to open really high in the New York stock exchange (Monday) now, after the recording breaking deliveries, and likely climb over the week.

    Even I'm aware that the stocks are objectively overpriced. But this is a question of group psychology in the short run and these kinds of headlines cause a rapid climb if temporarily. It's inevitable that the stock will rapidly climb in New York this week.

    It is funny to see watch how it pay for a few bottles of wine every time it happens after it dips, without condoning this.

    As for Tesla's achievements (independently of its overpriced stocks). Factories do not open yet in Berlin and Texas, and yet they are already above a million cars a year production rates. It is following the optimistic scenario. I remember posting graphs on this forum almost 4 years ago, when they were producing the first 20,000 Model 3 cars.


    Tesla delivered 936,172 electric vehicles in 2021, with the fourth-quarter setting a new record

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

    https://i.imgur.com/NkJSK2a.png


     

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Yellowface Anon


    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers
     
    It's an interesting situation. Tesla has larger market capitalization than the next 9 biggest automakers combined. So now that Tesla's production rates starts increasing towards millions per year, is their market cap going to keep ballooning?

    Replies: @Showmethereal

  89. @Derer
    @Thulean Friend


    Socialism and communism as economic systems appear to be dead.
     
    For some reason you forgot about 2009 one trillion "socialist" bailout of corrupt crony capitalists. Taxpayers paid twice to corporate bums. That just tells you who controls the government.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    corporate socialism is the opposite of socialism.

  90. @Svidomyatheart
    So looks like the 5 eyes are ratcheting up their efforts against China

    is this the proverbial "carrot" that will be used to coerce Indians into the alliance?

    https://twitter.com/fbfsubstack/status/1477379548568244225

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    The rules for immigration from HK is loose enough.

  91. @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers

    Replies: @Shortsword

    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers

    It’s an interesting situation. Tesla has larger market capitalization than the next 9 biggest automakers combined. So now that Tesla’s production rates starts increasing towards millions per year, is their market cap going to keep ballooning?

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
    @Shortsword

    Yeah their stock price is completely ridiculous and are not based on any real market realities. It is basically based on Elong Musk as a sales person. Yes in some ways they have first mover advantage... But its not that much of an advantage.... The incumbents will be ramping up production more and more - meanwhile other startups sales are growing quickly too. Teslas market share is already being reduced and they will be squeezed more from both ends. There is no fundamental basis for their stock price to be where it is...

  92. @Dmitry
    @AP

    He was a very interesting commentator because he actually knows a lot of culture and literature. He walking all these books and writers he read, which very few other people have read those things or that quantity of literature. His political views were pretty crazy and bizarre, but that is true for many people even not his age. I didn't realize he was quite so old though. Deserves some more respect from the netizens if just for his age alone. But then he was often writing angry and aggressively with political views, that is not where he senses much of what is really happening.

    It would prefer to read him, if he was writing more about literature or culture. Or about his first person experiences.

    Replies: @AP

    Most educated Russians over 45 are well read. It was one of the few good features of the Soviet system. I remember fondly, back in the 90s, observing the people reading literature on the Moscow metro. Over time it devolved to trash books and finally phones.

    At a party back then my wife was once surprised to find an American with whom she could have an intelligent discussion of Latin American literature. Then the mystery was solved – the guy was a professor of that subject.

    So Martyianov is just a Russian guy over 45 who happens to have had a brief and mediocre (low rank) career in the Soviet military in his youth, who also writes in English and is willing to share his views with people who otherwise would never have encountered and interacted with a Soviet officer.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @AP


    educated Russians over 45 are well read

     

    I remember he was saying he doesn't like Solzhenitsyn, because Solzhenitsyn is copying of all these other 20th century writers in different ways. I don't think I know anyone who has read Solzhenitsyn books, and definitely not all the authors who Solzhenitsyn had copied.

    He definitely knows far more of 20th century literature, than any normal people. This is not typical. He's a kind of 20th century literature connoisseur. Unfortunately, I haven't read enough 20th century literature to write anything on those threads, when he had suddenly seemed interesting (i.e. when he was not boasting excitedly about who has the largest missile).


    Martyanov is just a Russian guy over 45
     
    He is nothing typical for Russian, except I guess he was an ordinary dude.

    He looks around 70 or 75 years old, so he perhaps moved to the USA because of his children have dragged him there, and this could explain why he seems to hate the USA.

    His idealization of Russian politicians is only really possible for rational people, if you weren't living in Russia for the last decades or something.

    It's probably some kind of brutal geographic dislocation in the biography, which created his political views, not that they are interesting.

    He's probably a person who is interesting to listen to on a thousand different topics. But of course, politics is not one, as he seemed to be very unclose to anything happens in Russia. It's often that political views are the least interesting aspect of a person.

    Replies: @siberiancat, @AP

    , @Philip Owen
    @AP

    The view from the bottom can reveal more than the view from the fast track even if what you say is true. Things are made to work or not in the middle.

  93. @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Have you tried their output?
     
    Yes, I've tried their red once or twice. Frankly, what stands out about this brand is their logo, it's a little bit intense. One that I like and can recommend is Chateau St Michelle, they have a lot of wines in that price range but also more expensive ones. What is interesting, is that some New World grapes are actually grown in basalt soil.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

    apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”

    Intense name? Their wines do have an element of intenseness to them. I do think the correct term would be “fruit forward”. But I do like a wine where you can actually taste the grape from which it’s made from, the “tannins”, “coffee” “leathery” and “peppery” profiles are interesting, but less important to me. I’ll keep an eye out for the output of Chateu St Michelle, thanks for the tip! Apotheca’s “claim to fame” appears to be their ability to blend and marry different wine profiles into one unique wine.

  94. @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Have you tried their output?
     
    Yes, I've tried their red once or twice. Frankly, what stands out about this brand is their logo, it's a little bit intense. One that I like and can recommend is Chateau St Michelle, they have a lot of wines in that price range but also more expensive ones. What is interesting, is that some New World grapes are actually grown in basalt soil.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Mr. Hack

    apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”

    Intense name? I think that the word’s association with a pharmacy came later. Their wines do have an element of intenseness to them. I do think the correct term would be “fruit forward”. But I do like a wine where you can actually taste the grape from which it’s made from, the “tannins”, “coffee” “leathery” and “peppery” profiles are interesting, but less important to me. I’ll keep an eye out for the output of Chateu St Michelle, thanks for the tip! Apotheca’s “claim to fame” appears to be their ability to blend and marry different wine profiles together into one unique wine. I’ve tried their “red”, their “crush” :”black”and now their cabernet sauvignon, and they all seem to have an intenseness and I would say a richness to the taste that doesn’t inspire me to drink more than two glasses. I think that this is good. 🙂

    • Replies: @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”
     

    "A mysterious place where wine was blended and stored in 13th century Europe," according to owner.

    Sorry, I didn't mean that the name was intense, but the design, label. It has a kind of a gothic design with a flashy, red letter A in the center. This brand is very popular, especially among the millennials, maybe partly because of the way the label looks, which is very different from a classic, more conservative look.

    They have wines called "Crush", "Inferno", "Dark". This brand really stands out with its intense image. And it's a mass product, not boutique.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Emil Nikola Richard

  95. @Mikhail
    @AP

    Martyanov's background and content are qualitatively better than the Moscow based Pavel Felgenhauer. For the purpose of having someone with more agreeable Western mass media/Western mass media influenced spin, Felgenhauer is the one typically getting airtime, unlike Martyanov and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @AP, @Aedib

    I’m not familiar with Felgenhauer, but you are probably correct because Felgenhauer is popular with Americans and Americans are about as objective and accurate when they describe Russia, as Russian sources are when describing Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP

    Or Kiev regime/pro-Kiev regime sources describing Russia.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Aedib
    @AP

    Felgenhauer is a biologist pretending to be an “expert on Russian military affairs” which predicted that Russia would be defeated in war against Georgia's "NATO trained quite good military". After the Russian army managed to defeat the Georgians in five days, he started to write some strange conspiracy theories to “explain” his wrong predictions. His predictions about the Donbass war were also systematically wrong.
    He just write pieces of wishful thinking for the Westerner audience that love reading about how bad the Russian military is. He also got furious several times when some commenters (probably Russians) on his articles ridiculed himself by remembering his consistently wrong predictions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP

  96. @AP
    @Mikhail

    I’m not familiar with Felgenhauer, but you are probably correct because Felgenhauer is popular with Americans and Americans are about as objective and accurate when they describe Russia, as Russian sources are when describing Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib

    Or Kiev regime/pro-Kiev regime sources describing Russia.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mikhail

    Yes, those aren’t very objective either. Though no worse than what Russians claim about Ukrainian events.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  97. How inaccurate is this Russian based source, who has roots on the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR?

    American neocons and some others downplay that Israel protested the above mentioned demonstration, in addition to voting for a Russian proposed UN General Assembly resolution condemning the glorification of Nazism. The US and Kiev regime were the only two voting against that resolution.

    Regarding what the BBC prefers to concentrate on:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/545020-uk-funding-influence-meddling-leak/

  98. @AP
    @Mikhail

    I’m not familiar with Felgenhauer, but you are probably correct because Felgenhauer is popular with Americans and Americans are about as objective and accurate when they describe Russia, as Russian sources are when describing Ukraine.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Aedib

    Felgenhauer is a biologist pretending to be an “expert on Russian military affairs” which predicted that Russia would be defeated in war against Georgia’s “NATO trained quite good military”. After the Russian army managed to defeat the Georgians in five days, he started to write some strange conspiracy theories to “explain” his wrong predictions. His predictions about the Donbass war were also systematically wrong.
    He just write pieces of wishful thinking for the Westerner audience that love reading about how bad the Russian military is. He also got furious several times when some commenters (probably Russians) on his articles ridiculed himself by remembering his consistently wrong predictions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Aedib

    A continued favorite nonetheless:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2mYGK9pX1AhUul4kEHbEuA_0Q_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&tbm=vid&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJq-eL9pX1AhVwkIkEHWUyDjgQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    CGTN has had its hare of anti-Russian leaning folks getting coddled treatment. This probably has a good deal to do with the Chinese higher ups not fully knowing what's going on, while giving too much influence to Western mass media influenced folks - some of them transplanted from Western mass media.

    Replies: @Aedib

    , @AP
    @Aedib

    I just looked through Google and Twitter. FWIW Felgenhauer claimed that Trump was Putin’s puppet, that Russia was poised to invade Turkey in 2016, and that Russia he made a decision to occupy Ukraine’s South in May 2021. Haven’t read what he has to say right now, and don’t watch videos.

    Came across this from 2019: “Pavel Felgenhauer on the shipment of Russia's troubled new 40N6 missiles to China that was mysteriously "destroyed" by a storm: "Sinkings were a classic Soviet way of writing off defective equipment & parts. I signed such documents myself"

    Was he once involved in the Soviet defence industry?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mikhail

  99. @Aedib
    @AP

    Felgenhauer is a biologist pretending to be an “expert on Russian military affairs” which predicted that Russia would be defeated in war against Georgia's "NATO trained quite good military". After the Russian army managed to defeat the Georgians in five days, he started to write some strange conspiracy theories to “explain” his wrong predictions. His predictions about the Donbass war were also systematically wrong.
    He just write pieces of wishful thinking for the Westerner audience that love reading about how bad the Russian military is. He also got furious several times when some commenters (probably Russians) on his articles ridiculed himself by remembering his consistently wrong predictions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP

    A continued favorite nonetheless:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2mYGK9pX1AhUul4kEHbEuA_0Q_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&tbm=vid&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJq-eL9pX1AhVwkIkEHWUyDjgQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    CGTN has had its hare of anti-Russian leaning folks getting coddled treatment. This probably has a good deal to do with the Chinese higher ups not fully knowing what’s going on, while giving too much influence to Western mass media influenced folks – some of them transplanted from Western mass media.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Mikhail

    I’m sorry but I will not waste my time reading his rants. He seems too afraid about the prospect of a real Russian-Ukrainian war erasing his wishful based “analysis”.

  100. @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    internally stable to me than the US
     
    It's a predictable dynamic, as a result of the collapse of the USSR, American culture losing some of their sense of "cosmic role".

    In the second half of the 20th century, a lot of their culture's identity has been derived from their position in the Cold War.

    This is not just merger of cultural identity with capitalist ideology, but also some brutal aspects of capitalism could be accepted and sublimated with a sense of meaning into a clash of world civilization.

    When the Soviet Union is not longer pretending to act as a contrast or alternative, the sense of cosmic role of America is turning inwards, or lost in becoming a world culture.

    In Russia, is sadly now culturally on the trashheap of history, and only the authorities can robotically create fake acting, on non-important topics, as a vulgar form of opposition. Chinese culture unfortunately appears stillborn and doesn't present sufficient contrast to stimulate the American culture sphere. My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.

    Perhaps it sounds funny, but the boycotted 1980s Olympic might be seen one day, as the premonitory goodbye for this 20th century "Agon". Some symbolic moment of the world spirit, when people were suddenly expressing sadness as they were singing goodbye to the Olympic bear who flew away from Moscow, goes back to hide in the forest, and did not return.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzuGK5tH1G4

    Replies: @songbird, @Philip Owen

    My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.

    Don’t know how common it is, but I’ve heard that some talented Japanese are beginning to jump ship to China because of stagnant wages and long hours – for instance, in anime.

    IMO, it is an interesting question, when most Americans will begin to feel like they are overshadowed by China and what will cause them to feel this way. Right now, short of some major change, it don’t think they will feel that way by watching Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.

    Winning a race to the Moon would seem like the possibly easy way to do it. What will happen, if it doesn’t come easily? Maybe, war.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    It's more like basic anime production like art being outsourced to China and South Korea, and direction staying in Japan. No one in the Japanese production team moving there, and probably some artists in Japan are thrown out of work.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Dmitry
    @songbird

    China currently appears weak culturally.

    It should improve in the future. For example, as it's known that much of students in elite art colleges in Western Europe and America, are from China. So China will have a lot more trained creative professionals in the future.

    However, even if they develop more skilled workers and higher incomes, it's possible that the political system will prevent much of a cultural production.

    This can be like investments. If the country's politicians can crush you when they like, there is a significant weight carrying down its cultural workers.

    In the USSR, there was among the most skilled creative professionals in the world, but there were limits for creativity, and then in postsoviet time hare have been many years of almost empty harvests. When there is a talented film director like Zvyagintsev, then the lowest cultural level politicians will be sure to try to disrupt him.


    Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.
     
    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China (or Chinese state vehicles) .

    For example, 25% of Paramount films, had been financed from China. After Baywatch (2017), they seemed to cancel this at least, so perhaps they try to stop wasting so much money on America, and focus on funding more domestic films. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3449544f34597a6333566d54/share.html

    Replies: @songbird

  101. @Yevardian
    @Barbarossa

    Ok, since Dmitri and 'Thulean' Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard?
    It's definitely harder than it first appears.

    Also got me thinking about the practically co-ruling 'power-couples' of history, e.g. the Ceaușescus, the Perons, Akhenaton & Nefertiti, Justinian & Theodora, Ferdinand & Isabella, Catherine & the entire Russian officer corps, and so on.

    Replies: @LatW, @Yahya

    Ok, since Dmitri and ‘Thulean’ Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard? It’s definitely harder than it first appears.

    I’d say both Bashar Al-Assad and King Abdullah of Jordan did a good job in the marital sphere.

    Queen Rania of Jordan. Business graduate of the American University in Cairo (AUC). Jordanian of Palestinian origin. Sunni Muslim. Married to Abdullah II of Jordan since 1993.

    Asma Al-Assad of Syria. Graduate of King’s College London with first-class honors in Computer Science and French literature. Sunni Muslim of Syrian origin. Speaks Enligh, Arabic, French and Spanish. Married to Bashar since 2000.

    In terms of looks, i’d say its a 2-way tie between the two. Frau Assad seems a bit more intelligent than Queen Rania.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Yahya

    Asma is far more attractive IMO. I saw her husband’s hacked e-mails - they are a very endearing couple. I wish them well.

  102. @Mikhail
    @Aedib

    A continued favorite nonetheless:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2mYGK9pX1AhUul4kEHbEuA_0Q_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Pavel+Felgenhauer%22&tbm=vid&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJq-eL9pX1AhVwkIkEHWUyDjgQ_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1024&bih=643&dpr=1

    CGTN has had its hare of anti-Russian leaning folks getting coddled treatment. This probably has a good deal to do with the Chinese higher ups not fully knowing what's going on, while giving too much influence to Western mass media influenced folks - some of them transplanted from Western mass media.

    Replies: @Aedib

    I’m sorry but I will not waste my time reading his rants. He seems too afraid about the prospect of a real Russian-Ukrainian war erasing his wishful based “analysis”.

    • Agree: Mikhail
  103. @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry

    I'm not totally following you here, Dmitry. I think that you had imbibed a little too much bubbly the night before? What you're stating though sounds quite interesting about the upper class German kids
    though...Happy New Year!

    Replies: @songbird

    I was once in the house of the mayor of a major German city, hanging out with his teenage daughter and her female friends, but I think they were only upper middle class, so Dmitry has me beat.

  104. @Mikhail
    @AP

    Or Kiev regime/pro-Kiev regime sources describing Russia.

    Replies: @AP

    Yes, those aren’t very objective either. Though no worse than what Russians claim about Ukrainian events.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @AP

    Felgy has gotten his share of play in the now defunct Kyiv Post.

  105. @Aedib
    @AP

    Felgenhauer is a biologist pretending to be an “expert on Russian military affairs” which predicted that Russia would be defeated in war against Georgia's "NATO trained quite good military". After the Russian army managed to defeat the Georgians in five days, he started to write some strange conspiracy theories to “explain” his wrong predictions. His predictions about the Donbass war were also systematically wrong.
    He just write pieces of wishful thinking for the Westerner audience that love reading about how bad the Russian military is. He also got furious several times when some commenters (probably Russians) on his articles ridiculed himself by remembering his consistently wrong predictions.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer

    Replies: @Mikhail, @AP

    I just looked through Google and Twitter. FWIW Felgenhauer claimed that Trump was Putin’s puppet, that Russia was poised to invade Turkey in 2016, and that Russia he made a decision to occupy Ukraine’s South in May 2021. Haven’t read what he has to say right now, and don’t watch videos.

    Came across this from 2019: “Pavel Felgenhauer on the shipment of Russia’s troubled new 40N6 missiles to China that was mysteriously “destroyed” by a storm: “Sinkings were a classic Soviet way of writing off defective equipment & parts. I signed such documents myself”

    Was he once involved in the Soviet defence industry?

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @AP

    AFAIK, S-400 sold to China lack the 40N6 missile. He's basically a liar.

    , @Mikhail
    @AP

    He's if my not mistaken 71, which would make him Soviet era draft material. I'm reminded of this Twilight Zone character:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLtY98fj_eY

    Felgenhauer is saying and doing all this in Moscow, without any apparent hassle (no Intel knocks on the door or legal restrictions put on him) from the authorities.

    He's also a blowhard:

    http://exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=7937&IBLOCK_ID=35

  106. @Yahya
    @Yevardian


    Ok, since Dmitri and ‘Thulean’ Friend opened this can of worms, maybe the expert gossips could point out really powerful world leaders or prominent tycoons who do have demonstrated good taste (this naturally excludes Bibi, Bojo, Macron, Musk etc), without getting divorced (this excludes Sarkozy, Putin), in this regard? It’s definitely harder than it first appears.
     
    I'd say both Bashar Al-Assad and King Abdullah of Jordan did a good job in the marital sphere.

    Queen Rania of Jordan. Business graduate of the American University in Cairo (AUC). Jordanian of Palestinian origin. Sunni Muslim. Married to Abdullah II of Jordan since 1993.


    https://see.news/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/queen-rania-1000x1000jpg.jpg


    Asma Al-Assad of Syria. Graduate of King's College London with first-class honors in Computer Science and French literature. Sunni Muslim of Syrian origin. Speaks Enligh, Arabic, French and Spanish. Married to Bashar since 2000.


    https://www.al-monitor.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_header/public/almpics/2020/06/RTSBIGF.JPG/RTSBIGF.JPG?h=088a5503&itok=15gsbVUO


    In terms of looks, i'd say its a 2-way tie between the two. Frau Assad seems a bit more intelligent than Queen Rania.

    Replies: @AP

    Asma is far more attractive IMO. I saw her husband’s hacked e-mails – they are a very endearing couple. I wish them well.

  107. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)
     
    I think it's real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don't believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I'm rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there's definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies...I'm always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven't yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry, @songbird, @Mikel

    But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.

    I’m a skeptic. But putting that aside, it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, “The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs.”

    If they instead said, “We want your support for nuclear energy, in order to save the world. We are sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition, we are willing to deport all of the people you deem undesirable, starting with ourselves.” Then my ears would really perk up.

    • Agree: A123
    • LOL: sher singh, Emil Nikola Richard
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Bug or lab-grown meat-eating is about caste, not anything environment or resource-conservational. It's ultimately about assigning an aesthetically inferior option to the lower castes and reserving meat to the upper castes. In Archeofuturism, the peasants get to grow their meat and the city-dwellers eats industrial agricultural food, including bug feed, and this is why what the WEF wants is the spitting image of Archeofuturism. Which is to say, the horseshoe.

    I think you rank these two more pressing political subjects than the climate, but what do race and Globohomo have to do with the climate?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Beckow
    @songbird


    ....sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition...
     
    The liberals' whole-existence is contrition: they are sorry, sorry for the good things they have and the things their ancestors did to assure the good things. But, as weak individuals that they are, they want to keep their own good stuff and give away others' stuff to make themselves feel better. No St.Francis here. It is a form of mental collapse: deep regrets combined with massive incompetence, in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    Currently the liberals are scared of heat (also cold, actually any weather event scares them), procreation (the classical type, the fakes titillate their weak fancies), large white men, Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close), Orban and circulating viruses.

    The key to understanding the liberals is that they are narcissists who have come to despise their own biology - often for a good reason, just look at them, that Bezos for God's sake, what the f..k is that, shiny velvet with a plastic burping bubble? The end-of-a-line came for them, they know it, they are just too scared to leave, yet.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird, @LatW

    , @A123
    @songbird


    it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, “The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs.”
     
    Small Modular Reactors [SMR] and Thorium fuel are obvious, science driven, choices to produce vast amounts of cheap, reliable. zero carbon electricity.

    Leftoids are highly emotional acolytes to faith based dogma. Wind turbines, solar panels, and electric cars solve nothing. However, they are highly visible symbols for virtue signaling.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecnS1Ygf0o0

    The last thing that Science Deniers want is a potentially effective solution. That would deprive them of the opportunity to be, "Pious In Their Prius".

    PEACE 😇
  108. @Barbarossa
    @Philip Owen

    I agree, it looks like a deeply desperate shot.

    What I don't don't get is why in the hell one would ditch your wife with whom you've had 4 kids, to take up with an overripe trollop who looks like shes had a couple too many plastic surgeries?! That's just stupid, sad, and demonstrates poor taste. I honestly think that Bezo's ex is better looking than his current tart.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Showmethereal

    Yeah she looks like shes had too much surgery and had sex with probably 50 too many men.. But if he was just Jeff the mailman – he probably wouldn’t make it into her next dozen or so count.. The poor guy is losing it..

  109. @Shortsword
    @Yellowface Anon


    It is still dwarfed by traditional (not just gasoline but also EV-building) automakers
     
    It's an interesting situation. Tesla has larger market capitalization than the next 9 biggest automakers combined. So now that Tesla's production rates starts increasing towards millions per year, is their market cap going to keep ballooning?

    Replies: @Showmethereal

    Yeah their stock price is completely ridiculous and are not based on any real market realities. It is basically based on Elong Musk as a sales person. Yes in some ways they have first mover advantage… But its not that much of an advantage…. The incumbents will be ramping up production more and more – meanwhile other startups sales are growing quickly too. Teslas market share is already being reduced and they will be squeezed more from both ends. There is no fundamental basis for their stock price to be where it is…

  110. @songbird
    @Dmitry


    My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.
     
    Don't know how common it is, but I've heard that some talented Japanese are beginning to jump ship to China because of stagnant wages and long hours - for instance, in anime.

    IMO, it is an interesting question, when most Americans will begin to feel like they are overshadowed by China and what will cause them to feel this way. Right now, short of some major change, it don't think they will feel that way by watching Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.

    Winning a race to the Moon would seem like the possibly easy way to do it. What will happen, if it doesn't come easily? Maybe, war.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    It’s more like basic anime production like art being outsourced to China and South Korea, and direction staying in Japan. No one in the Japanese production team moving there, and probably some artists in Japan are thrown out of work.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    Don't know how reliable this is, but this article suggests that not only are Japanese animators moving to Japan, but China is now outsourcing to Japanese studios.

    https://otakuusamagazine.com/chinese-animation-projects-outsource-japan/


    what do race and Globohomo have to do with the climate?
     
    Nothing intrinsically, but nevertheless rhetoric strongly links migration to global warming. And migration is linked to the gayness (ex: some NGO specializes in importing gays to Canada), and ideology links them both to global warming. If you asked Greta what she thinks, is there any doubt about what she would say?
  111. @songbird
    @German_reader


    But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
     
    I'm a skeptic. But putting that aside, it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, "The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs."

    If they instead said, "We want your support for nuclear energy, in order to save the world. We are sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition, we are willing to deport all of the people you deem undesirable, starting with ourselves." Then my ears would really perk up.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Beckow, @A123

    Bug or lab-grown meat-eating is about caste, not anything environment or resource-conservational. It’s ultimately about assigning an aesthetically inferior option to the lower castes and reserving meat to the upper castes. In Archeofuturism, the peasants get to grow their meat and the city-dwellers eats industrial agricultural food, including bug feed, and this is why what the WEF wants is the spitting image of Archeofuturism. Which is to say, the horseshoe.

    I think you rank these two more pressing political subjects than the climate, but what do race and Globohomo have to do with the climate?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Aesthetically pleasing meat substitutes exist. It's soy, the way East Asian vegans prepare it.

    https://i2.chuimg.com/c9a23953b7214b309266ac72631b1328_681w_783h.jpg?imageView2/2/w/660/interlace/1/q/90

    https://www.consumer.org.hk/f/media_library/308431/960p0/W1908CHOI_vegetarian-meat_01ps.jpg

    They can fit into the menu of all-you-can-eat restaurants:

    https://static5.orstatic.com/userphoto/Article/0/63/0017DKF8D152593FF5844Dj.jpg

    https://resource01-proxy.ulifestyle.com.hk/res/v3/image/content/2385000/2387594/c_1024.jpg

    I don't think lab-grown meat is all that different presentation-wise to industrial mystery meat. But unprepared bug paste and Soylent Green will be humiliating low caste food.

  112. @AP
    @Aedib

    I just looked through Google and Twitter. FWIW Felgenhauer claimed that Trump was Putin’s puppet, that Russia was poised to invade Turkey in 2016, and that Russia he made a decision to occupy Ukraine’s South in May 2021. Haven’t read what he has to say right now, and don’t watch videos.

    Came across this from 2019: “Pavel Felgenhauer on the shipment of Russia's troubled new 40N6 missiles to China that was mysteriously "destroyed" by a storm: "Sinkings were a classic Soviet way of writing off defective equipment & parts. I signed such documents myself"

    Was he once involved in the Soviet defence industry?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mikhail

    AFAIK, S-400 sold to China lack the 40N6 missile. He’s basically a liar.

    • Thanks: AP
  113. @songbird
    @German_reader


    But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
     
    I'm a skeptic. But putting that aside, it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, "The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs."

    If they instead said, "We want your support for nuclear energy, in order to save the world. We are sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition, we are willing to deport all of the people you deem undesirable, starting with ourselves." Then my ears would really perk up.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Beckow, @A123

    ….sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition…

    The liberals’ whole-existence is contrition: they are sorry, sorry for the good things they have and the things their ancestors did to assure the good things. But, as weak individuals that they are, they want to keep their own good stuff and give away others’ stuff to make themselves feel better. No St.Francis here. It is a form of mental collapse: deep regrets combined with massive incompetence, in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    Currently the liberals are scared of heat (also cold, actually any weather event scares them), procreation (the classical type, the fakes titillate their weak fancies), large white men, Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close), Orban and circulating viruses.

    The key to understanding the liberals is that they are narcissists who have come to despise their own biology – often for a good reason, just look at them, that Bezos for God’s sake, what the f..k is that, shiny velvet with a plastic burping bubble? The end-of-a-line came for them, they know it, they are just too scared to leave, yet.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @Beckow

    I think it's Germano-nords from the interior trying to push out Judeo-Puritans, all else is incidental.

    , @songbird
    @Beckow


    in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.
     
    i think a lot of modern discord and dysfunction comes from lack of exiling people. It used to be something that was done virtually everywhere. There are still groups who do it today, in improbable places, like the slums of Lagos.

    Too much money is put into prisons. Prisons mostly seem like an attempt to make the streets safer. They don't seem to do much in the way of encouraging pro-social behavior. They seem to be based on the idea that people can be reformed. (doesn't acknowledge rates of recidivism. ) In most cases, we would be better off writing them a check to accept exile.
    , @LatW
    @Beckow


    Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close)
     
    In a recent, rather depressing article on Ukraine Niall Ferguson speculated:

    "The Ukrainians not unreasonably complain that Romania and Bulgaria scarcely met all these [Copenhagen] criteria in 2006 (the year before they became EU members), to say nothing of 2000, when negotiations began. The fact that a current EU member — Hungary — today ranks not far above Ukraine in the Freedom House rankings of political freedom is also not lost on the Ukrainians.

    However, this is just an additional reason for EU foot-dragging [on supporting Ukraine's accession]. So unpopular is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Brussels these days that many European leaders and officials worry that admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold, which might then join forces with Hungary, Poland and any other populist-led states against an increasingly woke European Commission."
     

    Interesting that he knows the word "woke".

    Replies: @Beckow

  114. @Pericles
    @showmethereal

    Yeah, to take a close example, Sweden now has a population of about 10 million ... but at least 2 million of those are non-Swedes. It's difficult to be more precise because, for some reason, ethnical statistics are not tracked very carefully or at all.

    We also have France and Belgium in fairly deep demographic trouble, and, while I can't recall the specifics at the moment, likely the UK too. There are presumably more but just those taken alone is pretty bad.

    Replies: @sher singh

    • Replies: @AP
    @sher singh

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad but
    PLC even better.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @silviosilver, @Aedib

    , @sudden death
    @sher singh

    Are gypsies really the third of all newborns in Bulgaria???

    Replies: @Shortsword

    , @Cutler
    @sher singh

    iirc Italy's non European/ non White births are less than 10% not 15%. Data is found on Istat Italian language sites.

  115. @Beckow
    @songbird


    ....sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition...
     
    The liberals' whole-existence is contrition: they are sorry, sorry for the good things they have and the things their ancestors did to assure the good things. But, as weak individuals that they are, they want to keep their own good stuff and give away others' stuff to make themselves feel better. No St.Francis here. It is a form of mental collapse: deep regrets combined with massive incompetence, in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    Currently the liberals are scared of heat (also cold, actually any weather event scares them), procreation (the classical type, the fakes titillate their weak fancies), large white men, Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close), Orban and circulating viruses.

    The key to understanding the liberals is that they are narcissists who have come to despise their own biology - often for a good reason, just look at them, that Bezos for God's sake, what the f..k is that, shiny velvet with a plastic burping bubble? The end-of-a-line came for them, they know it, they are just too scared to leave, yet.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird, @LatW

    I think it’s Germano-nords from the interior trying to push out Judeo-Puritans, all else is incidental.

  116. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    It's more like basic anime production like art being outsourced to China and South Korea, and direction staying in Japan. No one in the Japanese production team moving there, and probably some artists in Japan are thrown out of work.

    Replies: @songbird

    Don’t know how reliable this is, but this article suggests that not only are Japanese animators moving to Japan, but China is now outsourcing to Japanese studios.

    https://otakuusamagazine.com/chinese-animation-projects-outsource-japan/

    what do race and Globohomo have to do with the climate?

    Nothing intrinsically, but nevertheless rhetoric strongly links migration to global warming. And migration is linked to the gayness (ex: some NGO specializes in importing gays to Canada), and ideology links them both to global warming. If you asked Greta what she thinks, is there any doubt about what she would say?

  117. @sher singh
    @Pericles

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/640459736919048202/927099677667635230/IMG_5406.png

    Replies: @AP, @sudden death, @Cutler

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad but
    PLC even better.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @AP

    Yeah but Austria's birth rate is 1.46 and Hungary is 1.49... Basically the whole region is below replacement...

    Replies: @AP

    , @silviosilver
    @AP


    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad
     
    Exactly. And we all know it's only going to improve from here.

    Oh wait.
    , @Aedib
    @AP

    The Carolingian empire is screwed.

  118. @Mikhail
    @AP

    Martyanov's background and content are qualitatively better than the Moscow based Pavel Felgenhauer. For the purpose of having someone with more agreeable Western mass media/Western mass media influenced spin, Felgenhauer is the one typically getting airtime, unlike Martyanov and Mark Sleboda.

    Replies: @AP, @Aedib

    Martyanov and The Saker belong to the team “We Russians are soooooooo powerful” which is a sort of mirror of the way bigger “We Americans are soooooooo powerful” team played by Stratfor, The Heritage Foundation, etc.
    While both “stronk teams” exercise in wishful thinking, they are basically inoffensive. The danger may arise if some politicians take decisions about the real world based in such a type of delusions. It seems to me that Russia is led by people with a ferocious and pragmatic realism but current USA no so. People like Kissinger are out of the last administrations.
    I recognize that Martyanov have knowledge about weapon systems while Saker sometimes seems to be out of the reality. Some technical analysis from Martyanov are very interesting but for geopolitical analysis I prefer people like Alexander Mercouris (pro-Russian bias but within the real world) rather than Saker.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Aedib

    https://muckrack.com/michael-averko/articles

  119. @Beckow
    @songbird


    ....sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition...
     
    The liberals' whole-existence is contrition: they are sorry, sorry for the good things they have and the things their ancestors did to assure the good things. But, as weak individuals that they are, they want to keep their own good stuff and give away others' stuff to make themselves feel better. No St.Francis here. It is a form of mental collapse: deep regrets combined with massive incompetence, in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    Currently the liberals are scared of heat (also cold, actually any weather event scares them), procreation (the classical type, the fakes titillate their weak fancies), large white men, Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close), Orban and circulating viruses.

    The key to understanding the liberals is that they are narcissists who have come to despise their own biology - often for a good reason, just look at them, that Bezos for God's sake, what the f..k is that, shiny velvet with a plastic burping bubble? The end-of-a-line came for them, they know it, they are just too scared to leave, yet.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird, @LatW

    in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    i think a lot of modern discord and dysfunction comes from lack of exiling people. It used to be something that was done virtually everywhere. There are still groups who do it today, in improbable places, like the slums of Lagos.

    Too much money is put into prisons. Prisons mostly seem like an attempt to make the streets safer. They don’t seem to do much in the way of encouraging pro-social behavior. They seem to be based on the idea that people can be reformed. (doesn’t acknowledge rates of recidivism. ) In most cases, we would be better off writing them a check to accept exile.

  120. @sher singh
    @Pericles

    https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/640459736919048202/927099677667635230/IMG_5406.png

    Replies: @AP, @sudden death, @Cutler

    Are gypsies really the third of all newborns in Bulgaria???

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @sudden death

    Bulgaria has a sizeable number of Turks too. Turks and gypsies together makes up around 15-20% of the population. But I don't think Bulgarian Turks have high fertility.

  121. @AP
    @Dmitry

    Most educated Russians over 45 are well read. It was one of the few good features of the Soviet system. I remember fondly, back in the 90s, observing the people reading literature on the Moscow metro. Over time it devolved to trash books and finally phones.

    At a party back then my wife was once surprised to find an American with whom she could have an intelligent discussion of Latin American literature. Then the mystery was solved - the guy was a professor of that subject.

    So Martyianov is just a Russian guy over 45 who happens to have had a brief and mediocre (low rank) career in the Soviet military in his youth, who also writes in English and is willing to share his views with people who otherwise would never have encountered and interacted with a Soviet officer.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    educated Russians over 45 are well read

    I remember he was saying he doesn’t like Solzhenitsyn, because Solzhenitsyn is copying of all these other 20th century writers in different ways. I don’t think I know anyone who has read Solzhenitsyn books, and definitely not all the authors who Solzhenitsyn had copied.

    He definitely knows far more of 20th century literature, than any normal people. This is not typical. He’s a kind of 20th century literature connoisseur. Unfortunately, I haven’t read enough 20th century literature to write anything on those threads, when he had suddenly seemed interesting (i.e. when he was not boasting excitedly about who has the largest missile).

    Martyanov is just a Russian guy over 45

    He is nothing typical for Russian, except I guess he was an ordinary dude.

    He looks around 70 or 75 years old, so he perhaps moved to the USA because of his children have dragged him there, and this could explain why he seems to hate the USA.

    His idealization of Russian politicians is only really possible for rational people, if you weren’t living in Russia for the last decades or something.

    It’s probably some kind of brutal geographic dislocation in the biography, which created his political views, not that they are interesting.

    He’s probably a person who is interesting to listen to on a thousand different topics. But of course, politics is not one, as he seemed to be very unclose to anything happens in Russia. It’s often that political views are the least interesting aspect of a person.

    • Replies: @siberiancat
    @Dmitry

    Martyanov does not hate the USA. He loves the country but despises her elites.
    You don't have to read his mind, he explicitly writes about that.

    , @AP
    @Dmitry

    I found this post thanks to the response.


    He definitely knows far more of 20th century literature, than any normal people. This is not typical.
     
    I know lots of educated Russian people over 45 (perhaps the cutoff is 48 or so) and they are as well-read as he is (and far more than I, raised in the USA, am). I'm not sure why you found him to be more well-read than typical educated Russians his age. Perhaps you don't spend much time with educated older Russians. There is a dramatic cutoff after which Russians started to read much less, perhaps because they were too busy surviving. And after that, the next batch of Russians were more like non-reading Westerners, distracted by other things that they can enjoy with the wealth that previous Russian generations didn't have.

    He looks around 70 or 75 years old, so he perhaps moved to the USA because of his children have dragged him there, and this could explain why he seems to hate the USA.
     
    IIRC he left the USSR right when he was young, in the beginning of the 90s, after having graduated from a naval academy with an engineering background and having been a low ranking naval officer for a few years. So he is probably around 60.

    Someone like that should have had a successful career in technology in the 1990s. Instead, it seems that he just tutored kids at private schools, the sort of job an educated pensioner would do, not a man in the prime of his life. So something went wrong in his life, this could explain his bitterness towards the USA. And sadly for him, by the time Russia got back on its feet he was too old to go back. Or he might be from another republic, not even a Russian citizen, so he is an orphan with nothing to come back to. He can only admire and idealize Russia from a distance and feel good about Russia being stronger or more wily than the West - living vicariously through Russia like a Balkanoid.

    Replies: @melanf, @Dmitry

  122. @songbird
    What to make of this idea that Neanderthals were burning forests?
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2302065-neanderthals-may-have-cleared-a-european-forest-with-fire-or-tools/

    One of the wilder theories is that they were practicing an early form of agriculture.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Hunter gatherers burn forest to increase the amount of pasture for grazing animals.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Philip Owen

    It is interesting to ponder whether they may have planted any trees, for pine nuts, acorns, and walnuts.

  123. https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/?sh=27c339f44352

    An interesting read. I’ve thought that the Chinese official numbers seem clearly implausible, despite what Ron Unz says about the Uber-Chinese Covid Response. Even factoring in anti-Chinese motivations in a Western outlet, I find their estimate far more plausible that the Chinese self reporting.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Barbarossa

    So you think the parties in Wuhan while the west was being ravaged was fake??? No they weren't. Outsiders have to quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel... When clusters erupt in a city there is mass testing and SERIOUS contact tracing.... If you had contact - you have to quarantine... it's not an option. Enough cases in a city - they go into lockdown. No - you can't even go to the supermarket. The supermarkets go to each housing area and delivers food to the people in a controlled environment. Unless you have been there or speak to someone who actually lives there - you wouldn't understand. To even get on a domestic long distance train - you have to show Covid results... No such thing exists for domestic planes and trains in the US.
    Now in terms of reported cases - there is a difference because China only reports symptomatic cases... But the death rate??? Nope... They really take it that serious.

    The death rate in Hong Kong and Singapore was similar... Until South Korea began to open up and follow the west - it's death rate was similar as well. What about "Taiwan"??? There death rate is the same. So those US friends death rates are not questionable?? No - the answer is they all handled it very similarly (until recently).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  124. @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    internally stable to me than the US
     
    It's a predictable dynamic, as a result of the collapse of the USSR, American culture losing some of their sense of "cosmic role".

    In the second half of the 20th century, a lot of their culture's identity has been derived from their position in the Cold War.

    This is not just merger of cultural identity with capitalist ideology, but also some brutal aspects of capitalism could be accepted and sublimated with a sense of meaning into a clash of world civilization.

    When the Soviet Union is not longer pretending to act as a contrast or alternative, the sense of cosmic role of America is turning inwards, or lost in becoming a world culture.

    In Russia, is sadly now culturally on the trashheap of history, and only the authorities can robotically create fake acting, on non-important topics, as a vulgar form of opposition. Chinese culture unfortunately appears stillborn and doesn't present sufficient contrast to stimulate the American culture sphere. My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.

    Perhaps it sounds funny, but the boycotted 1980s Olympic might be seen one day, as the premonitory goodbye for this 20th century "Agon". Some symbolic moment of the world spirit, when people were suddenly expressing sadness as they were singing goodbye to the Olympic bear who flew away from Moscow, goes back to hide in the forest, and did not return.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzuGK5tH1G4

    Replies: @songbird, @Philip Owen

    Russia dominates children’s animation. Niroshka TV and Masha and the Bear are in the top 5 (last time I looked) most watched children’s films on You Tube. Masha has often held #2 position. If Russia had sense they would build on this with coproductions et al.

  125. @AP
    @Dmitry

    Most educated Russians over 45 are well read. It was one of the few good features of the Soviet system. I remember fondly, back in the 90s, observing the people reading literature on the Moscow metro. Over time it devolved to trash books and finally phones.

    At a party back then my wife was once surprised to find an American with whom she could have an intelligent discussion of Latin American literature. Then the mystery was solved - the guy was a professor of that subject.

    So Martyianov is just a Russian guy over 45 who happens to have had a brief and mediocre (low rank) career in the Soviet military in his youth, who also writes in English and is willing to share his views with people who otherwise would never have encountered and interacted with a Soviet officer.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen

    The view from the bottom can reveal more than the view from the fast track even if what you say is true. Things are made to work or not in the middle.

  126. @Aedib
    @Mikhail

    Martyanov and The Saker belong to the team “We Russians are soooooooo powerful” which is a sort of mirror of the way bigger “We Americans are soooooooo powerful” team played by Stratfor, The Heritage Foundation, etc.
    While both “stronk teams” exercise in wishful thinking, they are basically inoffensive. The danger may arise if some politicians take decisions about the real world based in such a type of delusions. It seems to me that Russia is led by people with a ferocious and pragmatic realism but current USA no so. People like Kissinger are out of the last administrations.
    I recognize that Martyanov have knowledge about weapon systems while Saker sometimes seems to be out of the reality. Some technical analysis from Martyanov are very interesting but for geopolitical analysis I prefer people like Alexander Mercouris (pro-Russian bias but within the real world) rather than Saker.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  127. @AP
    @Aedib

    I just looked through Google and Twitter. FWIW Felgenhauer claimed that Trump was Putin’s puppet, that Russia was poised to invade Turkey in 2016, and that Russia he made a decision to occupy Ukraine’s South in May 2021. Haven’t read what he has to say right now, and don’t watch videos.

    Came across this from 2019: “Pavel Felgenhauer on the shipment of Russia's troubled new 40N6 missiles to China that was mysteriously "destroyed" by a storm: "Sinkings were a classic Soviet way of writing off defective equipment & parts. I signed such documents myself"

    Was he once involved in the Soviet defence industry?

    Replies: @Aedib, @Mikhail

    He’s if my not mistaken 71, which would make him Soviet era draft material. I’m reminded of this Twilight Zone character:

    Felgenhauer is saying and doing all this in Moscow, without any apparent hassle (no Intel knocks on the door or legal restrictions put on him) from the authorities.

    He’s also a blowhard:

    http://exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=7937&IBLOCK_ID=35

  128. @AP
    @Mikhail

    Yes, those aren’t very objective either. Though no worse than what Russians claim about Ukrainian events.

    Replies: @Mikhail

    Felgy has gotten his share of play in the now defunct Kyiv Post.

  129. @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    Hunter gatherers burn forest to increase the amount of pasture for grazing animals.

    Replies: @songbird

    It is interesting to ponder whether they may have planted any trees, for pine nuts, acorns, and walnuts.

  130. @songbird
    @Dmitry


    My intuition is that Chinese culture will become much more productive by the middle of this century. But we might hope the Chinese will eventually contribute to culture at least like Japan.
     
    Don't know how common it is, but I've heard that some talented Japanese are beginning to jump ship to China because of stagnant wages and long hours - for instance, in anime.

    IMO, it is an interesting question, when most Americans will begin to feel like they are overshadowed by China and what will cause them to feel this way. Right now, short of some major change, it don't think they will feel that way by watching Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.

    Winning a race to the Moon would seem like the possibly easy way to do it. What will happen, if it doesn't come easily? Maybe, war.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    China currently appears weak culturally.

    It should improve in the future. For example, as it’s known that much of students in elite art colleges in Western Europe and America, are from China. So China will have a lot more trained creative professionals in the future.

    However, even if they develop more skilled workers and higher incomes, it’s possible that the political system will prevent much of a cultural production.

    This can be like investments. If the country’s politicians can crush you when they like, there is a significant weight carrying down its cultural workers.

    In the USSR, there was among the most skilled creative professionals in the world, but there were limits for creativity, and then in postsoviet time hare have been many years of almost empty harvests. When there is a talented film director like Zvyagintsev, then the lowest cultural level politicians will be sure to try to disrupt him.

    Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.

    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China (or Chinese state vehicles) .

    For example, 25% of Paramount films, had been financed from China. After Baywatch (2017), they seemed to cancel this at least, so perhaps they try to stop wasting so much money on America, and focus on funding more domestic films. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3449544f34597a6333566d54/share.html

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Dmitry

    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree. That leaves the political - the political priority seems to be to emphasize Chinese culture and domestic consumption, as China is still in a period of economic growth. By 2025 China is expected to have 100,000 screens. (US has 44,000), and the idea is to fill those seats. Though I think exports are a secondary goal - not unconsidered, but something not in focus, right now.

    And part of it is beyond political - learning the craft and learning to export.


    It should improve in the future.
     
    In a kind of subliminal sense, I suspect that it is improving now. For example, Netflix did buy the exclusive rights for The Wandering Earth (bad movie, IMO) for probably some millions. And they have bought other Chinese films. And though, I think HK is long past its heyday, the Chinese have been learning a lot of lessons by working with HK people. The number of films with HK influence is at an all time high, and some of them are the bigger hits.

    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China
     
    There's a lot of foreign money that goes into Hollywood movies. In a certain way, I guess it is strange that we consider them "American" movies, even if Hollywood (using term broadly) itself is considered weird to a lot of Americans. Maybe, the fact that Chinese movies are starting from a Chinese base, might be a strategic strength?

    I was really shocked when Wanda bought the AMC theater chain. Seemed like a horrible waste of money. I suspect that it was built on past perceptions of prestige. It seems like a lot of Americans stopped going to the theaters. They have nowhere near the same amount of seats, as when I was a kid. In 2022, I don't even know where the local theater is - the closest one closed down and became an Amazon warehouse.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  131. @German_reader
    @Yevardian


    Not to mention, since all this global warming hysteria (I’m agnostic on the topic)
     
    I think it's real, the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime, and I think it will indeed be a very serious issue (if the worst scenarios become reality, some regions might become entirely uninhabitable after all). Question is of course what to do about it, I don't believe the German Greens (deeply stupid people imo) have any sensible ideas. But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
    The plastics issue might indeed be pretty bad, I'm rather disturbed by those suggestions that the steadily declining sperm count of men in Western countries might be due to cellular damage caused by ubiquituous plastics, definitely an issue that should be urgently investigated to a much greater extent, since it could eventually evolve into an existential threat. More generally, there's definitely a lot wrong with environmental influences in modern Western societies...I'm always surprised and somewhat baffled by how many people of my age seem to have pollen allergies and the like.
    Thanks for reminding me of Vaclav Smil, haven't yet read any of his books, but I probably should.

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry, @songbird, @Mikel

    the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime

    The change in climate has been noticeable over the lifetimes of everyone born in the last ~170 years, provided they lived past 3-4 decades.

    The planet began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age, in the mid 19th century. Records are less reliable in those early times but there are lots of land stations and maritime observations (sea water temperature logs collected by ships during decades while they traversed shipping lanes all over the globe) since the 19th century and sometimes earlier. The consensus estimate (from the IPCC itself) is that from 1850 to 1945 the global atmosphere warmed at a rate comparable to that of the most recent decades (less than a factor of 2 of difference):

    But we don’t know why this initial global warming took place. In its initial reports the IPCC attributed this early warming mainly to solar influences. But we now have much more precise data taken by satellites of how much solar irradiance varies between cycles of high to low solar activity and we know that it is not enough to alter the temperature significantly (which is why direct solar explanations for the current warming have also been discarded). The latest scientific reports of the IPCC (Working Group I) don’t include any consensus explanation for this initial global warming.

    One other interesting aspect of that graph is that when the actual concentration of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases began to really rise in the atmosphere after the end of WWII, as observed at the Mauna Loa long-term observatory, the global temperature went down until the mid 70s. The usual explanation for this paradox is that the cooling was produced by sulfates and other industrial aerosols but this is debatable. This type of aerosols are short-lived, they get removed of the atmosphere by rain in a matter of days or weeks so they mostly affect the source regions and those downwind of them. However, the Southern Hemisphere, where these aerosols were practically absent, also cooled down from the mid 40s to the late 60s. Moreover, a strong cooling effect of sulfates that could more than compensate for the warming effect of GHGs would mean that nowadays we would be seeing strong cooling in regions heavily affected by aerosols, such as China, but we don’t see that.

    The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. Biased, alarmist and politicized like on any other subject. Attributing all sorts of weather phenomena, such as a spat of tornadoes, to climate change is asinine. The frequency and intensity of tornadoes in the US has actually decreased over the past century. But it is impossible to get this kind of scientific facts from the MSM. One has to go to specialized blogs or, ironically, to the IPCC reports themselves.

    In summary, there are good grounds to be rather skeptical of the climate catastrophism. But at the same, time, we know from physical first principles that increasing amounts of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs must necessarily lead to a warmer global temperature. The question is how much warmer, what the effects will be and how logical it is with our present knowledge to reduce our wealth in order to try and combat these possible effects.

    In the mid 2000s Roger Pielke, a more or less skeptical climate researcher, argued that climate science was not being conducted as a real scientific discipline and asked what kind of observation would disprove specific claims made by the anthropogenic global warming theory, as is customary in all hard sciences.

    [MORE]

    A very interesting debate took place on the internet, far away from the mainstream discourse, and both skeptic and mainstream scientists agreed that in 2001, in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, a specific prediction was made of a global warming of 0.2C/decade from that date until the 3rd decade of this century, independent of the emissions scenario. The IPCC numerical models, taking into account the direct effects of the GHGs and the thermal lag of the oceans, showed that this would be the warming in the next 3 decades, largely independent of how much more CO2 we emitted.

    It soon became apparent that the models were overestimating the actual observed warming. In fact, from 2001 to 2015 all observational records, both surface and satellite-based, showed little or no warming during half of the period established in the IPCC 2001 prediction. This even led to the 5th Assessment Report to acknowledge the existence of a pause in global warming.

    But things changed dramatically in 2015-2016. First, a Super-Niño episode took place those years that moved the trend upwards and second, a paper was published in the literature arguing that the ocean part of the surface-based observational studies had important errors and the past global temperatures needed to be corrected downwards. This made the trend become more positive again. As a consequence of this paper, all surface records were corrected and now exhibited a trend line basically in agreement with the IPCC predictions. One of the two main satellite records (RSS) was also modified for different reasons to cool down the past and all but one satellite-based record (UAH) right now show broad agreement with the 0.2C/decade warming prediction.

    The models-observations discrepancy was solved in the worst possible way, by correcting the observations rather than by making the theory conform to the observed facts. But this is what the state of climate science is at present. If the global temperature continues warming at ~0.2/decade during the following 10 years and no more corrections are made to the observations, I think that one could more or less trust that the models are capturing the essence of how the atmosphere works with the current forcings. Making a successful prediction of how the global temperature will evolve in a period of 3 decades is a tremendous feat. But if we have another pause the conclusion will obviously have to be that mainstream climate science is exaggerating the global warming problem, which is probably the case even if that specific prediction pans out. The “Climategate” papers showing how the IPCC used to work for its initial reports show a disturbing picture of corrupt peer-review practices and generalized politicization.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    @Mikel

    "but one satellite-based record (UAH)" - UAH product is controlled by two outliers not belonging to the consensus: Roy Spencer and John Christy. As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won't be tweaked.

    I have serious doubts about the homogenization process and other corrections of the data from the past. It really seems that some data in some places were pushed down to show greater temperature gradients: "Who controls the past controls the future." Satellite data that are true global data exist only since the end of the 1970s.

    "The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. " - At some point BBC, NYT and other important media outlets decided that there would no longer be any dispute about global warming and thus only pro global warming stories - sometimes very idiotic - are reported. All kinds of scum scientists in peripheral sciences jumped on the global warming bandwagon realizing that is where the money is. The public is bombarded with nonsense of irrelevant and false stories.

    You are right that there is some integrity left in science as counterclaims are being investigated to some degree and if only their results were reported and popularized we would have more cool heads about the global warming. However my personal experience of people from NOAA, NCAR, NASA and DOE who work on climate and atmospheric science do no make me too hopeful that some meaningful coalition of more reasonable skeptics would emerge from among them. Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry. But life for atmospheric science practitioner was never that good as it is now as long as you go with the flow. Acid rain and ozone hole were just a prelude. Now they got drunk on power and prestige. They are like nuclear scientists in 1950s who won WWII and had power to destroy the whole world and thought that nuclear science and energy would answer all questions which led to hubris like nuclear planes. Most people were not aware that nuclear power was just the steam age technology where you would burn uranium instead of coal.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen

  132. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all.
     
    The higher end grocery stores in the US are of utmost quality. Especially smaller, local co-op type stores. They will mostly carry locally produced, very clean (non-GMO, no hormone, no corn syrup, organic, etc), often times family farm sourced, nicely packaged items, in a great variety. Including meat and seafood, good wines (both local and imported), higher quality supplements and cosmetics. But they will be a bit pricey. The way to go about this is to buy a smaller amount of higher quality items (they may be lower calorie and lower sugar content and more nutritionally dense at the same time). Unless you have a big family, ofc, but even then you can buy a lot of the produce, bulk staples at the co-op and maybe meat somewhere else. More commonly than in Europe, you can buy a lot of stuff in bulk, such as nuts, cereal, all types of exotic spices, teas, etc. So Mr Hack has nothing to worry about. :) Of course, these shops also carry imported items, like German and French cosmetics, wine. Although American wine is the same quality but cheaper.

    And, of course, there is the same class delineation between the higher end stores and regular stores, which is just reality. There's no need to trash the lower end stores, ofc, one just has to be more careful picking items there (read the contents).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry, @AP

    American wine

    But if you like less famous grapes, it seems countries like Italy and France have a lot of specific ones.

    I’m not at all knowledgeable about wine. But I mean e.g. if you like some taste of a specific grape like “Greco Di Tufo”, then it seems you need to buy the Italian wine.

    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

    Lol Utu is definitely somekind of upper class connoisseur. And Yevardian is from Armenia, so probably fussy if they don’t sell orange wine in Whole Foods.

    Then there is AaronB who will start writing about “terroir” if he was here. But how much of AaronB’s income is wasted on tariffs for imported EU wine from Campagna or Loire Valley. And then Trump has added things like 25% tariff on Scottish whisky in the USA (25%!).

    Again I don’t know anything about wine. I did remember like some Californian brands for Merlot tastes different to the South American ones? However, my knowledge and sample far too small to say this is “terroir”.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Dmitry

    "Lol Utu is definitely some kind of upper class connoisseur. " - Fuck off and Fuck no, I disagreed because LatW's post was too Pollyannish about the special food stores, no GMO and so on in the US and too uncritical about the alleged importance of differences between foods in stores of class A and class B in terms of health impact.

    Yes, if he lives in Boulder, CO which was the epicenter of health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF) I can see his position but I do not think that Boulder experience is scalable and I do not believe that you necessarily can trust local farmers or mom-and-pop stores and sometimes even less than big suppliers.

    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    , @LatW
    @Dmitry

    I didn't mean for the conversation to veer towards just wine, it's just your passive aggressive dig about how Mr Hack needs Aldi to eat clean kind of triggered me. :) You're really good at that. :) When you said Mr Hack needs European stores with EU regulations to be protected and healthy it sounded a bit like when Andrei Martyanov said he won't be buying German cars because they are "over engineered and overpriced".

    High end grocery stores, especially the co-ops, are better than anything in Europe and Europe will probably never have anything of that quality or variety. And European stores, including in EE, are great. Btw, it's good that the EU has those protective regulations. But in the US it's less regulated (although I doubt it it's the case with food), but people get to choose themselves what's good for them or not. This is why religion was traditionally more important in the US, because religion helps you make more "healthy" lifestyle choices. You're independent but still constrained by religion. Anyway, nowadays it's a class thing. But it can make a difference, for instance, there is less sugar in the peanut butter and jelly that's sold at the high end store vs the regular store. Over the long term, this can make a difference in your child's weight.

    If Aldi is really as cheap as they say, then it speaks very well for Germany... not surprising as Germany is known for its cheap but good quality food, clothing and rents. When you take care of your population like that, that's a sign of real wealth.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  133. @AP
    @sher singh

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad but
    PLC even better.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @silviosilver, @Aedib

    Yeah but Austria’s birth rate is 1.46 and Hungary is 1.49… Basically the whole region is below replacement…

    • Replies: @AP
    @showmethereal

    That's not good, but it is better than a higher birthrate in which non-natives are 30%. Better one's own country but with a smaller population, than another country.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  134. @songbird
    @German_reader


    But the full-on denial of climate change a lot of right-wingers have adopted is counter-productive.
     
    I'm a skeptic. But putting that aside, it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, "The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs."

    If they instead said, "We want your support for nuclear energy, in order to save the world. We are sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition, we are willing to deport all of the people you deem undesirable, starting with ourselves." Then my ears would really perk up.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Beckow, @A123

    it is hard to see the benefit of giving ground.

    They seem to be saying stuff like, “The equatorial zone will become uninhabitable, so we will need to accept hundreds of millions of Africans and Arabs, starting now. And you must begin eating bugs.”

    Small Modular Reactors [SMR] and Thorium fuel are obvious, science driven, choices to produce vast amounts of cheap, reliable. zero carbon electricity.

    Leftoids are highly emotional acolytes to faith based dogma. Wind turbines, solar panels, and electric cars solve nothing. However, they are highly visible symbols for virtue signaling.

    The last thing that Science Deniers want is a potentially effective solution. That would deprive them of the opportunity to be, “Pious In Their Prius“.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: songbird
  135. @Barbarossa
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/02/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-1/?sh=27c339f44352

    An interesting read. I've thought that the Chinese official numbers seem clearly implausible, despite what Ron Unz says about the Uber-Chinese Covid Response. Even factoring in anti-Chinese motivations in a Western outlet, I find their estimate far more plausible that the Chinese self reporting.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    So you think the parties in Wuhan while the west was being ravaged was fake??? No they weren’t. Outsiders have to quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel… When clusters erupt in a city there is mass testing and SERIOUS contact tracing…. If you had contact – you have to quarantine… it’s not an option. Enough cases in a city – they go into lockdown. No – you can’t even go to the supermarket. The supermarkets go to each housing area and delivers food to the people in a controlled environment. Unless you have been there or speak to someone who actually lives there – you wouldn’t understand. To even get on a domestic long distance train – you have to show Covid results… No such thing exists for domestic planes and trains in the US.
    Now in terms of reported cases – there is a difference because China only reports symptomatic cases… But the death rate??? Nope… They really take it that serious.

    The death rate in Hong Kong and Singapore was similar… Until South Korea began to open up and follow the west – it’s death rate was similar as well. What about “Taiwan”??? There death rate is the same. So those US friends death rates are not questionable?? No – the answer is they all handled it very similarly (until recently).

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @showmethereal

    This is why it's unsustainable in the face of Omicron, which is far more transmissible but less virulent and lethal. I can imagine the entirety of China under such kind of lockdown for months on end, which will crush the entire global supply chain and fulfill A123's dream of total production onshoring. Xian citizens are already sending SOS messages of shortages as this kind of distribution system is starting to fail, now scale it up to 1.4 billion in a few months. It will be the Great Leap Forward 2.0, and I hope they have learnt their lesson in not being institutionally suicidal. We count on a strong China to counter a failing US, and if both of them fails, the WEF takes over.

    Replies: @PedroAstra, @Showmethereal

  136. @AP
    @sher singh

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad but
    PLC even better.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @silviosilver, @Aedib

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad

    Exactly. And we all know it’s only going to improve from here.

    Oh wait.

  137. @AP
    @sher singh

    Austria-Hungary not looking too bad but
    PLC even better.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @silviosilver, @Aedib

    The Carolingian empire is screwed.

    • Agree: AP
  138. https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elizabeth-holmes-decision

    She is guilty on four of the counts after 6 days of jury deliberation. I wonder if Gwern will update his opinion that she could be back doing startups real soon now.

    Who gets a longer sentence? Holmes or Maxwell?

  139. @Mikel
    @German_reader


    the change in climate has been quite noticeable even over my lifetime
     
    The change in climate has been noticeable over the lifetimes of everyone born in the last ~170 years, provided they lived past 3-4 decades.

    The planet began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age, in the mid 19th century. Records are less reliable in those early times but there are lots of land stations and maritime observations (sea water temperature logs collected by ships during decades while they traversed shipping lanes all over the globe) since the 19th century and sometimes earlier. The consensus estimate (from the IPCC itself) is that from 1850 to 1945 the global atmosphere warmed at a rate comparable to that of the most recent decades (less than a factor of 2 of difference):

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentFeature/GlobalWarming/images/giss_temperature.png

    But we don’t know why this initial global warming took place. In its initial reports the IPCC attributed this early warming mainly to solar influences. But we now have much more precise data taken by satellites of how much solar irradiance varies between cycles of high to low solar activity and we know that it is not enough to alter the temperature significantly (which is why direct solar explanations for the current warming have also been discarded). The latest scientific reports of the IPCC (Working Group I) don’t include any consensus explanation for this initial global warming.

    One other interesting aspect of that graph is that when the actual concentration of CO2 and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases began to really rise in the atmosphere after the end of WWII, as observed at the Mauna Loa long-term observatory, the global temperature went down until the mid 70s. The usual explanation for this paradox is that the cooling was produced by sulfates and other industrial aerosols but this is debatable. This type of aerosols are short-lived, they get removed of the atmosphere by rain in a matter of days or weeks so they mostly affect the source regions and those downwind of them. However, the Southern Hemisphere, where these aerosols were practically absent, also cooled down from the mid 40s to the late 60s. Moreover, a strong cooling effect of sulfates that could more than compensate for the warming effect of GHGs would mean that nowadays we would be seeing strong cooling in regions heavily affected by aerosols, such as China, but we don’t see that.

    The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. Biased, alarmist and politicized like on any other subject. Attributing all sorts of weather phenomena, such as a spat of tornadoes, to climate change is asinine. The frequency and intensity of tornadoes in the US has actually decreased over the past century. But it is impossible to get this kind of scientific facts from the MSM. One has to go to specialized blogs or, ironically, to the IPCC reports themselves.

    In summary, there are good grounds to be rather skeptical of the climate catastrophism. But at the same, time, we know from physical first principles that increasing amounts of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs must necessarily lead to a warmer global temperature. The question is how much warmer, what the effects will be and how logical it is with our present knowledge to reduce our wealth in order to try and combat these possible effects.

    In the mid 2000s Roger Pielke, a more or less skeptical climate researcher, argued that climate science was not being conducted as a real scientific discipline and asked what kind of observation would disprove specific claims made by the anthropogenic global warming theory, as is customary in all hard sciences.



    A very interesting debate took place on the internet, far away from the mainstream discourse, and both skeptic and mainstream scientists agreed that in 2001, in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, a specific prediction was made of a global warming of 0.2C/decade from that date until the 3rd decade of this century, independent of the emissions scenario. The IPCC numerical models, taking into account the direct effects of the GHGs and the thermal lag of the oceans, showed that this would be the warming in the next 3 decades, largely independent of how much more CO2 we emitted.

    It soon became apparent that the models were overestimating the actual observed warming. In fact, from 2001 to 2015 all observational records, both surface and satellite-based, showed little or no warming during half of the period established in the IPCC 2001 prediction. This even led to the 5th Assessment Report to acknowledge the existence of a pause in global warming.

    But things changed dramatically in 2015-2016. First, a Super-Niño episode took place those years that moved the trend upwards and second, a paper was published in the literature arguing that the ocean part of the surface-based observational studies had important errors and the past global temperatures needed to be corrected downwards. This made the trend become more positive again. As a consequence of this paper, all surface records were corrected and now exhibited a trend line basically in agreement with the IPCC predictions. One of the two main satellite records (RSS) was also modified for different reasons to cool down the past and all but one satellite-based record (UAH) right now show broad agreement with the 0.2C/decade warming prediction.

    The models-observations discrepancy was solved in the worst possible way, by correcting the observations rather than by making the theory conform to the observed facts. But this is what the state of climate science is at present. If the global temperature continues warming at ~0.2/decade during the following 10 years and no more corrections are made to the observations, I think that one could more or less trust that the models are capturing the essence of how the atmosphere works with the current forcings. Making a successful prediction of how the global temperature will evolve in a period of 3 decades is a tremendous feat. But if we have another pause the conclusion will obviously have to be that mainstream climate science is exaggerating the global warming problem, which is probably the case even if that specific prediction pans out. The “Climategate” papers showing how the IPCC used to work for its initial reports show a disturbing picture of corrupt peer-review practices and generalized politicization.

    Replies: @utu

    “but one satellite-based record (UAH)” – UAH product is controlled by two outliers not belonging to the consensus: Roy Spencer and John Christy. As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won’t be tweaked.

    I have serious doubts about the homogenization process and other corrections of the data from the past. It really seems that some data in some places were pushed down to show greater temperature gradients: “Who controls the past controls the future.” Satellite data that are true global data exist only since the end of the 1970s.

    “The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. ” – At some point BBC, NYT and other important media outlets decided that there would no longer be any dispute about global warming and thus only pro global warming stories – sometimes very idiotic – are reported. All kinds of scum scientists in peripheral sciences jumped on the global warming bandwagon realizing that is where the money is. The public is bombarded with nonsense of irrelevant and false stories.

    You are right that there is some integrity left in science as counterclaims are being investigated to some degree and if only their results were reported and popularized we would have more cool heads about the global warming. However my personal experience of people from NOAA, NCAR, NASA and DOE who work on climate and atmospheric science do no make me too hopeful that some meaningful coalition of more reasonable skeptics would emerge from among them. Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry. But life for atmospheric science practitioner was never that good as it is now as long as you go with the flow. Acid rain and ozone hole were just a prelude. Now they got drunk on power and prestige. They are like nuclear scientists in 1950s who won WWII and had power to destroy the whole world and thought that nuclear science and energy would answer all questions which led to hubris like nuclear planes. Most people were not aware that nuclear power was just the steam age technology where you would burn uranium instead of coal.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @utu


    As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won’t be tweaked.
     
    To be fair, they also modified the UAH record. But they did it in both directions, which is what you expect from observational errors, that they will be random, and not always in the same direction, as we only seem to get from the "consensus" temperature series. Still, Steven Mosher, part of the Berkeley Earth team and former skeptical blogger, says that the net effect of the homogenization of land records is to reduce the historical warming.

    Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry.
     
    Judith Curry committed the worst sin. She transitioned from part of consensus group to the skeptical camp and now doesn't bother trying to publish. She explained that it's not worth the effort, trying to circumvent the "peer-review" gatekeepers. Still, her latest papers were at least mentioned in the last IPCC report and she has been testifying before Congress several times.

    I think that the Working Group I reports of the IPCC (the scientific basis) have become quite reasonable, despite their pro-model bias, unlike the jokes of the WG-II, WG-III and the Summary for Policymakers, which is actually negotiated with the politicians themselves and often contains claims that are contradictory with the WG-I contents.

    I have an open mind to the global warming question but I'm old enough to remember how this scare began, right after the global cooling scare, and I've seen too many predictions that never materialized, such as part of Manhattan being under water by the year 2000 (James Hansen dixit). It is quite obvious that the climate science field is full of second-rate researchers who went to College with the intention of saving the world rather than the much more difficult task of understanding how nature really works.

    The most likely scenario while we trasition away from fossil fuels is a continuation of the benign warming that we have experienced up to now (both natural and man-made) but it has already become impossible to take rational measures based on a sane cost-benefit analysis. The Gretinist camp has won and I fear irrational politician's actions more than global warming itself. They are clueless and, by their own words, they genuinely believe that we can stop floods and hurricanes from happening if we abandon fossil fuels.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Philip Owen
    @utu

    I will add my concerns about the probity of the Hadley Centre in the UK. It was set up by Mrs Thatcher (a CAGR believer with the data of the time, as was I) to confirm CAGR. It is colocated with the Meterological Office.

    Replies: @utu

  140. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    China currently appears weak culturally.

    It should improve in the future. For example, as it's known that much of students in elite art colleges in Western Europe and America, are from China. So China will have a lot more trained creative professionals in the future.

    However, even if they develop more skilled workers and higher incomes, it's possible that the political system will prevent much of a cultural production.

    This can be like investments. If the country's politicians can crush you when they like, there is a significant weight carrying down its cultural workers.

    In the USSR, there was among the most skilled creative professionals in the world, but there were limits for creativity, and then in postsoviet time hare have been many years of almost empty harvests. When there is a talented film director like Zvyagintsev, then the lowest cultural level politicians will be sure to try to disrupt him.


    Chinese movies, even though Hollywood ones are quite bad.
     
    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China (or Chinese state vehicles) .

    For example, 25% of Paramount films, had been financed from China. After Baywatch (2017), they seemed to cancel this at least, so perhaps they try to stop wasting so much money on America, and focus on funding more domestic films. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3449544f34597a6333566d54/share.html

    Replies: @songbird

    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree. That leaves the political – the political priority seems to be to emphasize Chinese culture and domestic consumption, as China is still in a period of economic growth. By 2025 China is expected to have 100,000 screens. (US has 44,000), and the idea is to fill those seats. Though I think exports are a secondary goal – not unconsidered, but something not in focus, right now.

    And part of it is beyond political – learning the craft and learning to export.

    It should improve in the future.

    In a kind of subliminal sense, I suspect that it is improving now. For example, Netflix did buy the exclusive rights for The Wandering Earth (bad movie, IMO) for probably some millions. And they have bought other Chinese films.

    [MORE]
    And though, I think HK is long past its heyday, the Chinese have been learning a lot of lessons by working with HK people. The number of films with HK influence is at an all time high, and some of them are the bigger hits.

    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China

    There’s a lot of foreign money that goes into Hollywood movies. In a certain way, I guess it is strange that we consider them “American” movies, even if Hollywood (using term broadly) itself is considered weird to a lot of Americans. Maybe, the fact that Chinese movies are starting from a Chinese base, might be a strategic strength?

    I was really shocked when Wanda bought the AMC theater chain. Seemed like a horrible waste of money. I suspect that it was built on past perceptions of prestige. It seems like a lot of Americans stopped going to the theaters. They have nowhere near the same amount of seats, as when I was a kid. In 2022, I don’t even know where the local theater is – the closest one closed down and became an Amazon warehouse.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @songbird


    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree.
     
    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people's worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can't speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive and volatile as it is. Look at the total collapse of European film production outside of France (which continues to heavily subsidise its industry) since the 1980s, with most other European films being produced in conjuction with French funding and technical support.

    I don't actually this is a trivial issue either, especially with the Western youth population becoming increasingly illiterate, states should put up some sort of effort to stall the total Americanisation of its coming generation.

    I can't really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number), certainly not in terms of artistic quality, though I understand that they do very well financially. Though that still says very little about their intrinsic merits, given China's enormous internal market and its cultural distinctiveness.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @songbird, @Dmitry

  141. @Dmitry
    @LatW


    American wine
     
    But if you like less famous grapes, it seems countries like Italy and France have a lot of specific ones.

    I'm not at all knowledgeable about wine. But I mean e.g. if you like some taste of a specific grape like "Greco Di Tufo", then it seems you need to buy the Italian wine.


    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

     

    Lol Utu is definitely somekind of upper class connoisseur. And Yevardian is from Armenia, so probably fussy if they don't sell orange wine in Whole Foods.

    Then there is AaronB who will start writing about "terroir" if he was here. But how much of AaronB's income is wasted on tariffs for imported EU wine from Campagna or Loire Valley. And then Trump has added things like 25% tariff on Scottish whisky in the USA (25%!).

    Again I don't know anything about wine. I did remember like some Californian brands for Merlot tastes different to the South American ones? However, my knowledge and sample far too small to say this is "terroir".

    Replies: @utu, @LatW

    “Lol Utu is definitely some kind of upper class connoisseur. ” – Fuck off and Fuck no, I disagreed because LatW’s post was too Pollyannish about the special food stores, no GMO and so on in the US and too uncritical about the alleged importance of differences between foods in stores of class A and class B in terms of health impact.

    Yes, if he lives in Boulder, CO which was the epicenter of health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF) I can see his position but I do not think that Boulder experience is scalable and I do not believe that you necessarily can trust local farmers or mom-and-pop stores and sometimes even less than big suppliers.

    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @utu


    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.
     
    Of course. They can discuss taste and flavor all day long, but if those beverages did not contain alcohol, virtually nobody would drink them.
    , @Dmitry
    @utu


    Fuck no, I disagreed
     
    Ok you can still pretend you are not an upper class connoisseur.

    But lol there is some people here like AaronB definitely already betrayed they are not on the side of the working class, after that post he was writing about why he only eats Normandy butter and appreciates "Jasper Hill Farms in Vermont" https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-168/#comment-4969089


    health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF)
     
    This Whole Foods chain was what they were referring in 0:30 in a Sacha Baron Cohen film "Dictator (2012)" (btw this film is not recommended even as a comedy film, although with some funny sections).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnRnwJuW_Zg


    vodka connoisseurs.
     
    Yes I felt like although there are great differences in the taste of vodka, it's all because you buy a really too cheap bottle. As long as you didn't buy a too cheap bottle, then it tastes not much better or worse. Although who knows maybe the connoisseurs notice more.
  142. Were the Scythians proto-Ukrainians? Or did the Slavs kill them off, like in the Russian movie The Scythian (2018)?

    And should we believe Herodotus, when he says that they wove marijuana into clothing, as well as bathed in its smoke? Not to mention, had capes made out of the scalps of their enemies?

    • Replies: @AP
    @songbird

    Scythians and their cousins the Sarmatians made a genetic contribution to the proto-Slavs and several Slavic words came from their languages, but they were a different people. I guess a rough analogy might be to the Norse influence and settlement among the Gaels, they were thoroughly assimilated and the language borrowings are so ancient they don't feel like foreign borrowings. But they are a different people.

    https://www.quora.com/How-many-Norse-loanwords-do-you-find-in-Irish

    This occurred before the Slavs spread out from their original homeland in northern Ukraine/southern Belarus/eastern Poland, so all the Slavs are a little bit Scythian (and Sarmatian) though Ukrainians perhaps more than the others because they stayed in the original homeland and didn't mix with others as they moved out (like Russians mixed with Finnic peoples, Czechs with Germans).

    Details of the influence of Scythian and Sarmatian Iranic languages on proto-Slavic are here:

    https://referenceworks.brillonline.com/entries/encyclopaedia-iranica-online/slavic-iranian-contacts-linguistic-relations-COM_336467

    The consensus within the current state of research holds that Iranian- and Slavic-speaking peoples came into contact in the second half of the first millennium BCE in the transition zone between steppe and forest to the north of the Black Sea.The Scythian language of these Iranians is known only fragmentarily, from names quoted by Herodotus and other ancient Greek authors and inscriptions from the northern coast of the Black Sea (see SCYTHIAN LANGUAGE); it has also left its trace in numerous place names, most famously the rivers Danube, Dniester, Dnieper, and Don (Ancient Gk. Tánais), all containing PIr. (Proto-Iranian) *dānu- ‘river’ (cf. Oss. don). The Scythians were dispersed westward by the arrival of the Sarmatians, who dominated the steppe in the last centuries BCE and early centuries CE. Commercial and military contacts between Iranians and Slavs intensified during this period, as successive waves of peoples moving westward from Asia pushed the Sarmatians and then the Alans west and north into the proximity of the Slavs’ home territory.

    That the religious and cultural worldview of the Iranians influenced the early Slavs is demonstrated by Slavic lexical items with solid PIE etymologies, but whose meanings are otherwise restricted to Iranian (Jakobson; Kuryłowicz; Benveniste, 1967): PSl. (Proto-Slavic) *slava ‘word’ (OCSl. [Old Church Slavonic] slovo) < OIr. *sravah- ‘glory, renown; word’ (Av. sravah-; contrast Ved. (Vedic) śrávas-, Gk. kléos ‘glory’); *bagu ‘riches, richness; god’ (OCSl. bogŭ; cf. bog-atŭ ‘rich,’ u-bogŭ ‘poor’; later replaced in the sense “richness” by bogatĭstvo) < OIr. *baga- ‘fortune; god’ (Av. baga- ‘share, lot; god,’ Sogd. βɣ- ‘god’; contrast Ved. bhága- ‘abundance; allocation (with reference to gods)’); and probably also *dīvu ‘demon, evil spirit of wilderness’ (OCSl. divŭ; cf. Old Rus. díviĭ, BCSM divlji ‘wild,’ Cz. divý ‘wild, mad,’ Bulg. div ‘wild, feral’) < OIr. *daiva- (q.v.) ‘demon, daēvic being’ (Av. daēva-, OPers. daiva-; contrast Ved. devá-, Lith. diẽvas, Lat. deus, Old Irish día ‘god’) and *rāji ‘paradise’ (OCSl. rajĭ) Arm. bagin ‘altar’; Reczek, 1987). The opposition of *bagu and *dīvu, and particularly the semantic depreciation of the latter from “god” to “demon,” suggest that the Iranians with whom the early Slavs came into contact adhered to a “primitive” version of Mazdaean dualism (Gołąb, 1975). However, despite the claims of Jakobson and others, no names of pagan Slavic deities may be definitively identified as Iranian borrowings.

    Standing beside these religious borrowings or calques are potential examples related to social organization: PSl. *mīru ‘world, peace’ (OCSl. mirŭ; Old Rus. mirŭ ‘village community’) < PIr. *miθra- (Humbach, pp. 124-25); PSl. *gaspadi ‘lord’ (OCSl. gospodĭ) < Mid. Pers. *guspad < OIr. *wić-pati- (with the Middle Persian change of word-initial *wi-) or Mid. Ir. *gas(t)pad < OIr. *gasti-pati- (Szemerényi, pp. 384-86, with preference for the former; but gospodĭ could have been remodeled after svobodĭ ‘free’).Additional items with likely Iranian sources are OCSl. čaša ‘potḗrion,’ Rus. chásha ‘drinking glass, bowl,’ etc. < Ir. *čaša(ka)- (to the root of Mod. Pers. čašidan ‘taste’; cf. Skt. caṣaka- ‘cup, wine glass,’ Arm. čašak ‘drinking vessel’); Rus. sobáka ‘dog’ (also attested outside East Slavic in Pol. (dial.), Kashubian sobaka ‘lecherous man’), which despite doubts can hardly be separated from Av. spaka- ‘doglike,’ Median spáka ‘female dog’ (Herodotus); PSl. taparu ‘ax’ (OCSl. toporŭ, Rus. topór) < Mid. Ir. *tapara- (Mid. Pers. tabrak, Pers. tabar, cf. Arm. tapar; perhaps metathesized from the notorious Wanderwort attested in Oss. færæt, Khot. paḍa, Toch. B peret, A porat, Turk. balta, etc.; see Abaev, 1995, I, p. 451); and, among words beginning with x-, *xarnā ‘food, sustenance’ (OCSl. xrana, Bulg. khrana, BCSM hrana) < OIr. *xwarnah- (Av. xvarənah- ‘food, drink’; Reczek, 1968), *xvaru ‘sick’ (Rus. khvóryĭ ‘sickly,’ Pol. chory ‘sick’) < OIr. *xwara- (Av. xvara- ‘wound’), and perhaps the name of the Croats, *xŭrvatŭ, if from OIr. *(fšu-)harwatar- ‘pastoralist’ (cf. Av. pasuš.hauruua- ‘watching over sheep’; Vasmer, 1953-58, III, p. 261). Two words of Iranian origin which have spread far and wide beyond Slavic are *xumeli ‘hops’ (OCSl. xŭmelĭ, Rus. khmel’, Pol. chmiel) < OIr. *hauma-aryaka- ‘Aryan soma’ (Oss. xwymællæg, Digor xumællæg ‘hops’; also borrowed into Germanic, Finno-Ugric, and Turkic; see Abaev, 1995, IV, pp. 261-62) and OCSl. sapogŭ ‘hypódēma,’ Rus. sapóg ‘boot’ < Mid. Ir. *sapaga- ‘hoof’ (cf. Av. safa-, Oss. sæftæg), the source of Mong. sab, Manchu sabu ‘shoe’ (Vasmer, 1953-58, II, pp. 578).

    To the second period of Slavic-Iranian contacts belong specifically East Slavic lexical items of Iranian origin.Their number is modest, but three likely examples are Old Rus. íreĭ (also výreĭ, výraĭ) ‘a southern land to which birds of passage migrate, a fabled magical realm’ < OIr. *a(i)rya- ‘Aryan’ (cf. Av. airiia-, OPers. ariya-; Vasmer, 1913, pp. 176-77; idem. 1924, pp. 367 [1971, pp. 6, 172]), Rus. mórda ‘snout’ < OIr. *mr̥da- ‘head’ (cf. Av. kamərəδa- ‘head (daēvic),’ Skt. mūrdhán- ‘head, peak’), and Rus. Church Slavonic xoměstorŭ ‘hamster’ < Mid. Ir. *hamēstar- (cf. Av. hamaēstar- ‘the one who throws to the ground’).Other candidates are Rus. step’ ‘steppe,’ cf. Oss. t’æp’æn ‘flat, level’ (< PIr. *(s)tap-; Bailey, p. 87; Trubachev, p. 39); Rus. khoróshiĭ ‘good,’ cf. Oss. xorz (Digor xwarz, Alanic [Tzetzes] xas /xwarz/); and Ukr. kháta ‘hut,’ if from OIr. *kata- ‘room, chamber’ (Av. kata-; Trubachev, pp. 41).In contrast, the West Slavic Iranianisms claimed by Trubachev and others, including such common verbs as Pol. patrzeć, patrzyć ‘look (at),’ Cz. patřit ‘belong’; Pol. (dial.) szatrzyć ‘know, remember,’ Cz. šetřit ‘save, spare’; Pol. dbać, Cz. dbát ‘take care’; and the all-important title Pol. pan, Cz. pán (Old Cz. hpán) < PSl. *gŭpanŭ < OIr. *gu-pāna- ‘cowherd’ (cf. Av. pəšu.pāna- ‘bridge-guarding,’ CSogd. xwšp’ny < *fšu-pāna-ka- ‘shepherd,’ but why *gu- for OIr. *gau- ‘cow’?) must be regarded as extremely uncertain (for alternative etymologies, see the respective entries in Rejzek, Boryś) and how such influence of an Iranian variety on the western dialects of Slavic could be interpreted in historical terms is also far from obvious.

    ::::::::::::::::::::::::

    Although the Slavs are partially Scythian/Sarmatian, the Ossetians are the last remaining "pure" speakers of that language.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @songbird

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1OVwuCdkK4

    (fellow who made the video is a zealot! It's a pretty decent video.)

  143. @showmethereal
    @AP

    Yeah but Austria's birth rate is 1.46 and Hungary is 1.49... Basically the whole region is below replacement...

    Replies: @AP

    That’s not good, but it is better than a higher birthrate in which non-natives are 30%. Better one’s own country but with a smaller population, than another country.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @AP

    Oh - I see what you mean... The origin of it though was those who talk of "demographic collapse" being a detriment to some countries - while seeming to leave out others with the same predicament... But I get you.

  144. @LatW
    @Dmitry


    So Mr Hack buying food imported from Germany is not a bad idea at all.
     
    The higher end grocery stores in the US are of utmost quality. Especially smaller, local co-op type stores. They will mostly carry locally produced, very clean (non-GMO, no hormone, no corn syrup, organic, etc), often times family farm sourced, nicely packaged items, in a great variety. Including meat and seafood, good wines (both local and imported), higher quality supplements and cosmetics. But they will be a bit pricey. The way to go about this is to buy a smaller amount of higher quality items (they may be lower calorie and lower sugar content and more nutritionally dense at the same time). Unless you have a big family, ofc, but even then you can buy a lot of the produce, bulk staples at the co-op and maybe meat somewhere else. More commonly than in Europe, you can buy a lot of stuff in bulk, such as nuts, cereal, all types of exotic spices, teas, etc. So Mr Hack has nothing to worry about. :) Of course, these shops also carry imported items, like German and French cosmetics, wine. Although American wine is the same quality but cheaper.

    And, of course, there is the same class delineation between the higher end stores and regular stores, which is just reality. There's no need to trash the lower end stores, ofc, one just has to be more careful picking items there (read the contents).

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Dmitry, @AP

    At the start of Covid we switched to Wholefoods because the public there was much more likely to be masked, and noticed an improved quality in seafood and meats versus the regular grocery store. However, neighborhood butchers and local East European ethnic stores are as good or better than Wholefoods at a much lower price.

  145. Could AK claim Italian citizenship based on their definition of jus sanguinis?

    And shouldn’t it be considered a structural flaw of the EU, as it seems to open up the possibility than tens of millions of Mestizos could immigrate to Europe? (not counting the millions who have come already)

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    "White Hispanic" Criollos (under the old colonial caste system) should definitely be able to claim Spanish & Portuguese citizenship.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Dmitry
    @songbird

    I guess it's interesting question, if Italy accepts those commercial DNA tests (I doubt it). Italy does give citizenship to anyone with an Italian ancestor. But the commercial DNA test can probably just misread people from small nationality who were not in their database. Are there any DNA experts here who can comment.

    Karlin's said he is descended from Laks, which is a very small tribal nationality in Dagestan, with only a few thousand people. It's possible the DNA test company simply doesn't have an Lak people in its database. Maybe the company doesn't want to provide refunds (they are just private money-makers) and assigns some Italian ancestry to the mystery DNA, as that had some similar patterns.

    It wouldn't be surprising if Karlin was the first person from Lak nationality to apply for a DNA test.

    If you look at the interviews of a Lak at 1:09 in the video, they have identical twin of AK. Such a visual resemblance is perhaps more accurate than the commercial DNA test, for such a small nationality.

    This dude at 1:09 it looks visually identical to Karlin. So there is indeed probably the real nationality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmLXW4QSpmM

    It would be funny if you could attain Italian nationality though by such methods. Kind of absurd but it would be worth trying considering the potential reward would be so high.

    Replies: @songbird

  146. @AP
    @showmethereal

    That's not good, but it is better than a higher birthrate in which non-natives are 30%. Better one's own country but with a smaller population, than another country.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    Oh – I see what you mean… The origin of it though was those who talk of “demographic collapse” being a detriment to some countries – while seeming to leave out others with the same predicament… But I get you.

  147. AP says:
    @songbird
    Were the Scythians proto-Ukrainians? Or did the Slavs kill them off, like in the Russian movie The Scythian (2018)?

    And should we believe Herodotus, when he says that they wove marijuana into clothing, as well as bathed in its smoke? Not to mention, had capes made out of the scalps of their enemies?

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Scythians and their cousins the Sarmatians made a genetic contribution to the proto-Slavs and several Slavic words came from their languages, but they were a different people. I guess a rough analogy might be to the Norse influence and settlement among the Gaels, they were thoroughly assimilated and the language borrowings are so ancient they don’t feel like foreign borrowings. But they are a different people.

    https://www.quora.com/How-many-Norse-loanwords-do-you-find-in-Irish

    This occurred before the Slavs spread out from their original homeland in northern Ukraine/southern Belarus/eastern Poland, so all the Slavs are a little bit Scythian (and Sarmatian) though Ukrainians perhaps more than the others because they stayed in the original homeland and didn’t mix with others as they moved out (like Russians mixed with Finnic peoples, Czechs with Germans).

    Details of the influence of Scythian and Sarmatian Iranic languages on proto-Slavic are here:

    https://referenceworks.brillonline.com/entries/encyclopaedia-iranica-online/slavic-iranian-contacts-linguistic-relations-COM_336467

    [MORE]

    The consensus within the current state of research holds that Iranian- and Slavic-speaking peoples came into contact in the second half of the first millennium BCE in the transition zone between steppe and forest to the north of the Black Sea.The Scythian language of these Iranians is known only fragmentarily, from names quoted by Herodotus and other ancient Greek authors and inscriptions from the northern coast of the Black Sea (see SCYTHIAN LANGUAGE); it has also left its trace in numerous place names, most famously the rivers Danube, Dniester, Dnieper, and Don (Ancient Gk. Tánais), all containing PIr. (Proto-Iranian) *dānu- ‘river’ (cf. Oss. don). The Scythians were dispersed westward by the arrival of the Sarmatians, who dominated the steppe in the last centuries BCE and early centuries CE. Commercial and military contacts between Iranians and Slavs intensified during this period, as successive waves of peoples moving westward from Asia pushed the Sarmatians and then the Alans west and north into the proximity of the Slavs’ home territory.

    That the religious and cultural worldview of the Iranians influenced the early Slavs is demonstrated by Slavic lexical items with solid PIE etymologies, but whose meanings are otherwise restricted to Iranian (Jakobson; Kuryłowicz; Benveniste, 1967): PSl. (Proto-Slavic) *slava ‘word’ (OCSl. [Old Church Slavonic] slovo) < OIr. *sravah- ‘glory, renown; word’ (Av. sravah-; contrast Ved. (Vedic) śrávas-, Gk. kléos ‘glory’); *bagu ‘riches, richness; god’ (OCSl. bogŭ; cf. bog-atŭ ‘rich,’ u-bogŭ ‘poor’; later replaced in the sense “richness” by bogatĭstvo) < OIr. *baga- ‘fortune; god’ (Av. baga- ‘share, lot; god,’ Sogd. βɣ- ‘god’; contrast Ved. bhága- ‘abundance; allocation (with reference to gods)’); and probably also *dīvu ‘demon, evil spirit of wilderness’ (OCSl. divŭ; cf. Old Rus. díviĭ, BCSM divlji ‘wild,’ Cz. divý ‘wild, mad,’ Bulg. div ‘wild, feral’) < OIr. *daiva- (q.v.) ‘demon, daēvic being’ (Av. daēva-, OPers. daiva-; contrast Ved. devá-, Lith. diẽvas, Lat. deus, Old Irish día ‘god’) and *rāji ‘paradise’ (OCSl. rajĭ) Arm. bagin ‘altar’; Reczek, 1987). The opposition of *bagu and *dīvu, and particularly the semantic depreciation of the latter from “god” to “demon,” suggest that the Iranians with whom the early Slavs came into contact adhered to a “primitive” version of Mazdaean dualism (Gołąb, 1975). However, despite the claims of Jakobson and others, no names of pagan Slavic deities may be definitively identified as Iranian borrowings.

    Standing beside these religious borrowings or calques are potential examples related to social organization: PSl. *mīru ‘world, peace’ (OCSl. mirŭ; Old Rus. mirŭ ‘village community’) < PIr. *miθra- (Humbach, pp. 124-25); PSl. *gaspadi ‘lord’ (OCSl. gospodĭ) < Mid. Pers. *guspad < OIr. *wić-pati- (with the Middle Persian change of word-initial *wi-) or Mid. Ir. *gas(t)pad < OIr. *gasti-pati- (Szemerényi, pp. 384-86, with preference for the former; but gospodĭ could have been remodeled after svobodĭ ‘free’).Additional items with likely Iranian sources are OCSl. čaša ‘potḗrion,’ Rus. chásha ‘drinking glass, bowl,’ etc. < Ir. *čaša(ka)- (to the root of Mod. Pers. čašidan ‘taste’; cf. Skt. caṣaka- ‘cup, wine glass,’ Arm. čašak ‘drinking vessel’); Rus. sobáka ‘dog’ (also attested outside East Slavic in Pol. (dial.), Kashubian sobaka ‘lecherous man’), which despite doubts can hardly be separated from Av. spaka- ‘doglike,’ Median spáka ‘female dog’ (Herodotus); PSl. taparu ‘ax’ (OCSl. toporŭ, Rus. topór) < Mid. Ir. *tapara- (Mid. Pers. tabrak, Pers. tabar, cf. Arm. tapar; perhaps metathesized from the notorious Wanderwort attested in Oss. færæt, Khot. paḍa, Toch. B peret, A porat, Turk. balta, etc.; see Abaev, 1995, I, p. 451); and, among words beginning with x-, *xarnā ‘food, sustenance’ (OCSl. xrana, Bulg. khrana, BCSM hrana) < OIr. *xwarnah- (Av. xvarənah- ‘food, drink’; Reczek, 1968), *xvaru ‘sick’ (Rus. khvóryĭ ‘sickly,’ Pol. chory ‘sick’) < OIr. *xwara- (Av. xvara- ‘wound’), and perhaps the name of the Croats, *xŭrvatŭ, if from OIr. *(fšu-)harwatar- ‘pastoralist’ (cf. Av. pasuš.hauruua- ‘watching over sheep’; Vasmer, 1953-58, III, p. 261). Two words of Iranian origin which have spread far and wide beyond Slavic are *xumeli ‘hops’ (OCSl. xŭmelĭ, Rus. khmel’, Pol. chmiel) < OIr. *hauma-aryaka- ‘Aryan soma’ (Oss. xwymællæg, Digor xumællæg ‘hops’; also borrowed into Germanic, Finno-Ugric, and Turkic; see Abaev, 1995, IV, pp. 261-62) and OCSl. sapogŭ ‘hypódēma,’ Rus. sapóg ‘boot’ < Mid. Ir. *sapaga- ‘hoof’ (cf. Av. safa-, Oss. sæftæg), the source of Mong. sab, Manchu sabu ‘shoe’ (Vasmer, 1953-58, II, pp. 578).

    To the second period of Slavic-Iranian contacts belong specifically East Slavic lexical items of Iranian origin.Their number is modest, but three likely examples are Old Rus. íreĭ (also výreĭ, výraĭ) ‘a southern land to which birds of passage migrate, a fabled magical realm’ < OIr. *a(i)rya- ‘Aryan’ (cf. Av. airiia-, OPers. ariya-; Vasmer, 1913, pp. 176-77; idem. 1924, pp. 367 [1971, pp. 6, 172]), Rus. mórda ‘snout’ < OIr. *mr̥da- ‘head’ (cf. Av. kamərəδa- ‘head (daēvic),’ Skt. mūrdhán- ‘head, peak’), and Rus. Church Slavonic xoměstorŭ ‘hamster’ < Mid. Ir. *hamēstar- (cf. Av. hamaēstar- ‘the one who throws to the ground’).Other candidates are Rus. step’ ‘steppe,’ cf. Oss. t’æp’æn ‘flat, level’ (< PIr. *(s)tap-; Bailey, p. 87; Trubachev, p. 39); Rus. khoróshiĭ ‘good,’ cf. Oss. xorz (Digor xwarz, Alanic [Tzetzes] xas /xwarz/); and Ukr. kháta ‘hut,’ if from OIr. *kata- ‘room, chamber’ (Av. kata-; Trubachev, pp. 41).In contrast, the West Slavic Iranianisms claimed by Trubachev and others, including such common verbs as Pol. patrzeć, patrzyć ‘look (at),’ Cz. patřit ‘belong’; Pol. (dial.) szatrzyć ‘know, remember,’ Cz. šetřit ‘save, spare’; Pol. dbać, Cz. dbát ‘take care’; and the all-important title Pol. pan, Cz. pán (Old Cz. hpán) < PSl. *gŭpanŭ < OIr. *gu-pāna- ‘cowherd’ (cf. Av. pəšu.pāna- ‘bridge-guarding,’ CSogd. xwšp’ny < *fšu-pāna-ka- ‘shepherd,’ but why *gu- for OIr. *gau- ‘cow’?) must be regarded as extremely uncertain (for alternative etymologies, see the respective entries in Rejzek, Boryś) and how such influence of an Iranian variety on the western dialects of Slavic could be interpreted in historical terms is also far from obvious.

    ::::::::::::::::::::::::

    Although the Slavs are partially Scythian/Sarmatian, the Ossetians are the last remaining "pure" speakers of that language.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
    @AP

    My snap impression is that there was potentially a lot of genetic turnover in the area of the Black Sea from Classical Greek times. Weren't the Thracians (modern day Bulgaria) described as being red-haired and blue-eyed?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  148. @Dmitry
    @LatW


    American wine
     
    But if you like less famous grapes, it seems countries like Italy and France have a lot of specific ones.

    I'm not at all knowledgeable about wine. But I mean e.g. if you like some taste of a specific grape like "Greco Di Tufo", then it seems you need to buy the Italian wine.


    They probably disagree that American wine is just as good as Italian or French.

     

    Lol Utu is definitely somekind of upper class connoisseur. And Yevardian is from Armenia, so probably fussy if they don't sell orange wine in Whole Foods.

    Then there is AaronB who will start writing about "terroir" if he was here. But how much of AaronB's income is wasted on tariffs for imported EU wine from Campagna or Loire Valley. And then Trump has added things like 25% tariff on Scottish whisky in the USA (25%!).

    Again I don't know anything about wine. I did remember like some Californian brands for Merlot tastes different to the South American ones? However, my knowledge and sample far too small to say this is "terroir".

    Replies: @utu, @LatW

    I didn’t mean for the conversation to veer towards just wine, it’s just your passive aggressive dig about how Mr Hack needs Aldi to eat clean kind of triggered me. 🙂 You’re really good at that. 🙂 When you said Mr Hack needs European stores with EU regulations to be protected and healthy it sounded a bit like when Andrei Martyanov said he won’t be buying German cars because they are “over engineered and overpriced”.

    High end grocery stores, especially the co-ops, are better than anything in Europe and Europe will probably never have anything of that quality or variety. And European stores, including in EE, are great. Btw, it’s good that the EU has those protective regulations. But in the US it’s less regulated (although I doubt it it’s the case with food), but people get to choose themselves what’s good for them or not. This is why religion was traditionally more important in the US, because religion helps you make more “healthy” lifestyle choices. You’re independent but still constrained by religion. Anyway, nowadays it’s a class thing. But it can make a difference, for instance, there is less sugar in the peanut butter and jelly that’s sold at the high end store vs the regular store. Over the long term, this can make a difference in your child’s weight.

    If Aldi is really as cheap as they say, then it speaks very well for Germany… not surprising as Germany is known for its cheap but good quality food, clothing and rents. When you take care of your population like that, that’s a sign of real wealth.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @LatW


    just wine,

     

    Lol what is so bad about talking wine? We can always return to more exciting topics of kale and mushrooms if you wish.

    Actually I didn't like wine until a couple years ago. So many nights indoors with the pandemic, has pushed me to enjoy wine. I'm even not disliking red wines nowadays. What about you?

    I would agree with you about not needing to import EU wine in the USA. But then I just buy the cheapest wine bottles, so just here to add my opinion uselessly.

    I remember Aaron B was posting about "terroir" ( https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-168/#comment-4969089 ). And considering the style and organization of his posts, I'm assuming we should listen to his expertise as he knows more about wine than the rest of us. :)


    Aldi is really as cheap as they say, then it speaks very well for Germany…

     

    They also sell expensive luxury products, as well as cheaper less quality ones. But those luxury products are usually seeming good value relative to what product quality they sold.

    You know Mr Hack said they started to open Aldi in the USA and I was recommending it to him so he can eat more cleanly like the EU people. But it looks like they are selling a lot of American products there. Then there are some German wines like Riesling
    https://www.aldi.us/en/products/alcohol/white-wine/

  149. @Beckow
    @songbird


    ....sorry about trying to drown you with Third Worlders and trying to turn everyone gay. To show our contrition...
     
    The liberals' whole-existence is contrition: they are sorry, sorry for the good things they have and the things their ancestors did to assure the good things. But, as weak individuals that they are, they want to keep their own good stuff and give away others' stuff to make themselves feel better. No St.Francis here. It is a form of mental collapse: deep regrets combined with massive incompetence, in the past we would just run them out of a tribe.

    Currently the liberals are scared of heat (also cold, actually any weather event scares them), procreation (the classical type, the fakes titillate their weak fancies), large white men, Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close), Orban and circulating viruses.

    The key to understanding the liberals is that they are narcissists who have come to despise their own biology - often for a good reason, just look at them, that Bezos for God's sake, what the f..k is that, shiny velvet with a plastic burping bubble? The end-of-a-line came for them, they know it, they are just too scared to leave, yet.

    Replies: @sher singh, @songbird, @LatW

    Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close)

    In a recent, rather depressing article on Ukraine Niall Ferguson speculated:

    “The Ukrainians not unreasonably complain that Romania and Bulgaria scarcely met all these [Copenhagen] criteria in 2006 (the year before they became EU members), to say nothing of 2000, when negotiations began. The fact that a current EU member — Hungary — today ranks not far above Ukraine in the Freedom House rankings of political freedom is also not lost on the Ukrainians.

    However, this is just an additional reason for EU foot-dragging [on supporting Ukraine’s accession]. So unpopular is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Brussels these days that many European leaders and officials worry that admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold, which might then join forces with Hungary, Poland and any other populist-led states against an increasingly woke European Commission.”

    Interesting that he knows the word “woke”.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @LatW


    ...admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold
     
    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process - a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by "woke", with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying. Ukraine would bring down the average living standards in EU by 5-10% - that would had been manageable during the times of growth, but with the current stagnation it cannot be done. UK leaving was the last financial straw, the numbers just can't be balanced.

    As all liberal global institutions they will stay around to provide illiberal benefits to their employees, issue verbiage and celebrate their anniversaries. A bit like the late-Middle Age Popes in Rome: jobs, money, parties, and ad maiorem dei gloriam...

    Replies: @A123, @LatW, @Mikhail

  150. @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    apotheca:

    "In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine."

    Intense name? I think that the word's association with a pharmacy came later. Their wines do have an element of intenseness to them. I do think the correct term would be "fruit forward". But I do like a wine where you can actually taste the grape from which it's made from, the "tannins", "coffee" "leathery" and "peppery" profiles are interesting, but less important to me. I'll keep an eye out for the output of Chateu St Michelle, thanks for the tip! Apotheca's "claim to fame" appears to be their ability to blend and marry different wine profiles together into one unique wine. I've tried their "red", their "crush" :"black"and now their cabernet sauvignon, and they all seem to have an intenseness and I would say a richness to the taste that doesn't inspire me to drink more than two glasses. I think that this is good. :-)

    Replies: @LatW

    Apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”

    “A mysterious place where wine was blended and stored in 13th century Europe,” according to owner.

    Sorry, I didn’t mean that the name was intense, but the design, label. It has a kind of a gothic design with a flashy, red letter A in the center. This brand is very popular, especially among the millennials, maybe partly because of the way the label looks, which is very different from a classic, more conservative look.

    They have wines called “Crush”, “Inferno”, “Dark”. This brand really stands out with its intense image. And it’s a mass product, not boutique.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @LatW

    Interestingly enough, I just got through looking over the Chateau St. Michelle website. Of the wines that I'd be interested in sampling, most were in the $65/bottle range, some as high as $200. I'm not currently interested in white wines, and for some reason don't pursue merlot wines either, finding them somehow lacking the right notes for my palate. I did see their "everyday" cabernet sauvignon that was going for about $12/bottle that I'll definitely be looking for. Can you recommend any others that I may have missed for say under $15/bottle? What are some of your favorites, even those going for $200/bottle?

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @LatW

    In my neighborhood wine outlet they have a life size cardboard placard of Snoop Dogg peddling vintage red wine. It is bizarre. I'm pretty sure Snoop drinks Hennesey and Coke. His label is called Nineteen Crimes.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0602/7673/6237/products/Cali-Red_2048x.png

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry

  151. On environmentalism, so much of the discussion gets limited to energy forms while ignoring the wider social ramifications, such as the destruction of our cities.

    This degradation is invisible to those who were born into it, so they take it for granted or, worse, even defend it. But all over Europe there is a slow movement to reclaim our cities. Latest example from Austria, above.

    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don’t eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.

    Air pollution by coal is an obvious issue, but far less attention is given noise pollution, especially in big cities, where cars are a major problem. In other words, environmentalism isn’t just about crossing the baseline of “we should survive as a species”, which is pathetically low. It should be about “we must dramatically raise our standard of living and civilisation”.

    It’s natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do. Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote? It’s not a serious argument. Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don’t eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.
     
    I'm not a fan of factory farming, but there's no need to jump the shark and forebear meat entirely, I instinctively distrust all vegetarians as misanthropic extinctionists. As for city-planning, especially considering the contribution of cars to noise pollution in 'our' cities, agreed. But this isn't a left/right issue.

    It’s natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do.
     
    The automobile was once seen as the vanguard of social 'progress' too. The word as you use it has no meaning. Progress over what, from where, to what end? Are you aware that the Nazis viewed themselves as 'progressive'? And quite accurately, too?

    Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     
    How typically progressive, you completely contradict yourself in just two sentences.

    Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     

    It's always the progressive's prerogative to define what argument is 'serious' and therefore even worth debating at all. Such would-be open-minded "revolutionaries" invariably turn out to be the most narrow-minded and fanatical of people.

    Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.
     

    If you have actually read any pre-20th Century literature, you will notice that such 'social ostracisation' for any political view taken was practically unheard of. Even in strongly conservative states such as Tsarist Russia or the Hapsburg Empire, people with even the most radical views were generally looked upon fondly as curious eccentrics, unless they engaged in actual terrorism (and even then, they often remained admired, see how murderers of Tsarist state-officials had sentences commuted for 'purity of motive').
    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it's absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of 'mass' politics of the hysterical mob.

    Replies: @utu, @AP

    , @songbird
    @Thulean Friend


    but far less attention is given noise pollution, especially in big cities, where cars are a major problem.
     
    I agree completely, but would go further: sun-belt people, like Brazilians, increasingly are going for jaunts in the countryside, with their car speakers blazing horrible, tasteless music, which should be confined to eco-friendly zones of rap, like the hellscape of Somalia, where there is not much worthwhile wildlife to concern oneself about disturbing.
  152. @utu
    @Dmitry

    "Lol Utu is definitely some kind of upper class connoisseur. " - Fuck off and Fuck no, I disagreed because LatW's post was too Pollyannish about the special food stores, no GMO and so on in the US and too uncritical about the alleged importance of differences between foods in stores of class A and class B in terms of health impact.

    Yes, if he lives in Boulder, CO which was the epicenter of health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF) I can see his position but I do not think that Boulder experience is scalable and I do not believe that you necessarily can trust local farmers or mom-and-pop stores and sometimes even less than big suppliers.

    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.

    Of course. They can discuss taste and flavor all day long, but if those beverages did not contain alcohol, virtually nobody would drink them.

    • Agree: utu, sher singh
  153. @songbird
    @Dmitry

    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree. That leaves the political - the political priority seems to be to emphasize Chinese culture and domestic consumption, as China is still in a period of economic growth. By 2025 China is expected to have 100,000 screens. (US has 44,000), and the idea is to fill those seats. Though I think exports are a secondary goal - not unconsidered, but something not in focus, right now.

    And part of it is beyond political - learning the craft and learning to export.


    It should improve in the future.
     
    In a kind of subliminal sense, I suspect that it is improving now. For example, Netflix did buy the exclusive rights for The Wandering Earth (bad movie, IMO) for probably some millions. And they have bought other Chinese films. And though, I think HK is long past its heyday, the Chinese have been learning a lot of lessons by working with HK people. The number of films with HK influence is at an all time high, and some of them are the bigger hits.

    A lot of Hollywood films have or were funded by China
     
    There's a lot of foreign money that goes into Hollywood movies. In a certain way, I guess it is strange that we consider them "American" movies, even if Hollywood (using term broadly) itself is considered weird to a lot of Americans. Maybe, the fact that Chinese movies are starting from a Chinese base, might be a strategic strength?

    I was really shocked when Wanda bought the AMC theater chain. Seemed like a horrible waste of money. I suspect that it was built on past perceptions of prestige. It seems like a lot of Americans stopped going to the theaters. They have nowhere near the same amount of seats, as when I was a kid. In 2022, I don't even know where the local theater is - the closest one closed down and became an Amazon warehouse.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree.

    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can’t speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive and volatile as it is. Look at the total collapse of European film production outside of France (which continues to heavily subsidise its industry) since the 1980s, with most other European films being produced in conjuction with French funding and technical support.

    I don’t actually this is a trivial issue either, especially with the Western youth population becoming increasingly illiterate, states should put up some sort of effort to stall the total Americanisation of its coming generation.

    I can’t really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number), certainly not in terms of artistic quality, though I understand that they do very well financially. Though that still says very little about their intrinsic merits, given China’s enormous internal market and its cultural distinctiveness.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Yevardian


    The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can’t speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).
     
    The problem was low quantity. United States produced maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year (counting only cinematic releases).

    Replies: @utu

    , @songbird
    @Yevardian


    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made
     
    You think economics wasn't a handicap? Well, the film Stalker was shot twice - the first time they messed up the film development because they weren't used to working with Kodak 5247 stock. Wouldn't have happened in the West.

    If you are a fan of Soviet film, perhaps, you should post a list.

    Anyway, I am not talking about critics' favorites. I am talking about audience favorites. And it seems probable that a lot of Soviet hits abroad were made with the aid of shady trade deals, and not by audience choice. The Soviet Union had nothing to compare with American blockbusters, like Star Wars or Aliens. The year the Soviet Union collapsed, Hollywood released T2. In a general way, The Soviet Union was bad at spectacle. (not that I am a fan of Hollywood, from my perspective they are cancerous)

    The Chinese definitely have a lot more potential to make waves. One reason being that they have more technology available to them. In theory, they could match Hollywood tit-for-tat when it comes to special effects. They could be very competitive in computer animation, whereas the Soviets were short on computers, and smuggling them in, was a way to make business deals.

    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts
     
    I think you may be looking at it with rose-tinted glasses, to say "zero." The film Zerograd (1988, have no seen it) has tits on the poster. Of course, that was after perestroika.


    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive
     
    I've never said that I am a free-trader when it comes to culture, and the Chinese, even with their rather large market, have't taken precisely that position either.

    BTW, I'd actually go further than you and say quality film-making requires careful censorship and cultural themes.

    I can’t really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number),
     
    If we were to compare Russian films or Hollywood films post-2010, to Chinese films, I would say that they were honestly all mostly crap.

    I see more potential for growth in Chinese quality than anywhere else. They don't need to pander to diversity, unlike the US. One thing to keep in mind is that they are really trying to play economic catch-up. Yes, total box office has been exceeded, but they probably don't have as many films that get above $15 million. Right now, they are concerned more with growth than quality or export potential, but I expect that to change in a few years.
    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian


    USSR .. greatest films
     
    There are indeed wonderful films from the Soviet Union. And innovations of directors, especially Eisenshtein who had significant influence on even international 20th century film editing culture.

    But there was also downward pressure from the authorities, which actually ruins many films, creates many problematic changes to stories.

    You also said the name Tarkovsky, who has become an exile and his later films were produced in Italy, Sweden, etc, despite his cult popularity in the USSR. He was also possibly killed by industrial pollution in Estonia.

    There is this very dual pressures in the USSR, where the level of artistic training was possibly the highest in the world. But the potential is not always realized.

    Another mixed situation could be Mikhail Kalatozov. Incredibly talented director, but who produces very propagandistic film for Cuba "Soy Cuba" that can be a bit difficult to watch today.

    Then there are artists like Shostakovich, which could be an ambiguous example, where he wasn't allowed to develop organically. But his most popular works (e.g. Fifth Symphony) sometimes came after the authorities bully him.

    But then Shostakovich has a very stressed life and perhaps we lost a couple symphonies at the end from his heart failure.


    heavily on state-protectionism and funding
     
    There are mixed situations on this topic in the Soviet Union.

    For example, Kurosawa's "Dersu Uzala", a wonderful film, funded by Mosfilm. On the other hand, ( fashionable cult director) Tarkovsky goes to exile, with last films funded by Gaumont.

    I agree that these artistic directors often require state funding, as there isn't enough of popular to demand to realize private funding for their often expensive visions.

  154. @sudden death
    @sher singh

    Are gypsies really the third of all newborns in Bulgaria???

    Replies: @Shortsword

    Bulgaria has a sizeable number of Turks too. Turks and gypsies together makes up around 15-20% of the population. But I don’t think Bulgarian Turks have high fertility.

  155. @Thulean Friend
    On environmentalism, so much of the discussion gets limited to energy forms while ignoring the wider social ramifications, such as the destruction of our cities.

    https://i.imgur.com/GIplVM8.jpg

    This degradation is invisible to those who were born into it, so they take it for granted or, worse, even defend it. But all over Europe there is a slow movement to reclaim our cities. Latest example from Austria, above.

    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don't eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.

    Air pollution by coal is an obvious issue, but far less attention is given noise pollution, especially in big cities, where cars are a major problem. In other words, environmentalism isn't just about crossing the baseline of "we should survive as a species", which is pathetically low. It should be about "we must dramatically raise our standard of living and civilisation".

    It's natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do. Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women's right to vote? It's not a serious argument. Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @songbird

    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don’t eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.

    I’m not a fan of factory farming, but there’s no need to jump the shark and forebear meat entirely, I instinctively distrust all vegetarians as misanthropic extinctionists. As for city-planning, especially considering the contribution of cars to noise pollution in ‘our’ cities, agreed. But this isn’t a left/right issue.

    It’s natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do.

    The automobile was once seen as the vanguard of social ‘progress’ too. The word as you use it has no meaning. Progress over what, from where, to what end? Are you aware that the Nazis viewed themselves as ‘progressive’? And quite accurately, too?

    Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?

    How typically progressive, you completely contradict yourself in just two sentences.

    Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?

    It’s always the progressive’s prerogative to define what argument is ‘serious’ and therefore even worth debating at all. Such would-be open-minded “revolutionaries” invariably turn out to be the most narrow-minded and fanatical of people.

    Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.

    If you have actually read any pre-20th Century literature, you will notice that such ‘social ostracisation’ for any political view taken was practically unheard of. Even in strongly conservative states such as Tsarist Russia or the Hapsburg Empire, people with even the most radical views were generally looked upon fondly as curious eccentrics, unless they engaged in actual terrorism (and even then, they often remained admired, see how murderers of Tsarist state-officials had sentences commuted for ‘purity of motive’).
    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it’s absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of ‘mass’ politics of the hysterical mob.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @utu
    @Yevardian

    Reactionaries do not get respect from TF and his ilk and this is because they do not resort to drastic methods the so called progressives can openly talk in cafes. Would resorting to "escuadrones de la muerte" restore reactionaries respect in TF's eyes? What about couple slashed throats and acid attacks on the most obnoxious progressive activists? At some point some people will do it and it is then when the reactionaries will have to make their most important decision.

    , @AP
    @Yevardian


    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it’s absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of ‘mass’ politics of the hysterical mob
     
    It seems to have been common among the American Puritans for moral/religious reasons. Secularised Puritans view social and political issues in moral terms. So the phenomenon of social shaming for incorrect political beliefs is not feminisation so much as it is a form of Americanisation.

    Replies: @Beckow

  156. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    Bug or lab-grown meat-eating is about caste, not anything environment or resource-conservational. It's ultimately about assigning an aesthetically inferior option to the lower castes and reserving meat to the upper castes. In Archeofuturism, the peasants get to grow their meat and the city-dwellers eats industrial agricultural food, including bug feed, and this is why what the WEF wants is the spitting image of Archeofuturism. Which is to say, the horseshoe.

    I think you rank these two more pressing political subjects than the climate, but what do race and Globohomo have to do with the climate?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Aesthetically pleasing meat substitutes exist. It’s soy, the way East Asian vegans prepare it.

    https://i2.chuimg.com/c9a23953b7214b309266ac72631b1328_681w_783h.jpg?imageView2/2/w/660/interlace/1/q/90

    They can fit into the menu of all-you-can-eat restaurants:

    I don’t think lab-grown meat is all that different presentation-wise to industrial mystery meat. But unprepared bug paste and Soylent Green will be humiliating low caste food.

  157. @songbird
    Could AK claim Italian citizenship based on their definition of jus sanguinis?

    And shouldn't it be considered a structural flaw of the EU, as it seems to open up the possibility than tens of millions of Mestizos could immigrate to Europe? (not counting the millions who have come already)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    “White Hispanic” Criollos (under the old colonial caste system) should definitely be able to claim Spanish & Portuguese citizenship.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon


    “White Hispanic” Criollos (under the old colonial caste system) should definitely be able to claim Spanish & Portuguese citizenship.

     

    I agree, but I don't know if there is a state in Europe with a rational system of Jus sanguinis (though in theory it is widespread). It seems like it is often one parent (who for instance could be an Arab or African). In the case of Italy, in theory, it could be like one GGG grandparent, who miscegenated with Africans. (indeed there are Eritreans who are suing to get in)

    It is pretty clear that Europeans crafted their systems when they were used to interacting with their near neighbors and not with Africans. Like France with Germans in Alsace-Lorraine.

    Any rational system would involve an understanding of genetic distance, color-signaling, and group co-evolution. It would acknowledge truths like someone who miscegenates is less related to their children than they are to other co-ethnics.

    Replies: @Cutler

  158. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree.
     
    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people's worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can't speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive and volatile as it is. Look at the total collapse of European film production outside of France (which continues to heavily subsidise its industry) since the 1980s, with most other European films being produced in conjuction with French funding and technical support.

    I don't actually this is a trivial issue either, especially with the Western youth population becoming increasingly illiterate, states should put up some sort of effort to stall the total Americanisation of its coming generation.

    I can't really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number), certainly not in terms of artistic quality, though I understand that they do very well financially. Though that still says very little about their intrinsic merits, given China's enormous internal market and its cultural distinctiveness.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @songbird, @Dmitry

    The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can’t speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    The problem was low quantity. United States produced maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year (counting only cinematic releases).

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @utu
    @Shortsword

    "maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year" - Great overstatement. In mid 1980's 150 feature films released in the USSR and about 500 in the US + Canada.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/187147/movie-releases-in-north-america-since-1980/

    https://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01982-4.html

    Replies: @Shortsword

  159. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don’t eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.
     
    I'm not a fan of factory farming, but there's no need to jump the shark and forebear meat entirely, I instinctively distrust all vegetarians as misanthropic extinctionists. As for city-planning, especially considering the contribution of cars to noise pollution in 'our' cities, agreed. But this isn't a left/right issue.

    It’s natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do.
     
    The automobile was once seen as the vanguard of social 'progress' too. The word as you use it has no meaning. Progress over what, from where, to what end? Are you aware that the Nazis viewed themselves as 'progressive'? And quite accurately, too?

    Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     
    How typically progressive, you completely contradict yourself in just two sentences.

    Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     

    It's always the progressive's prerogative to define what argument is 'serious' and therefore even worth debating at all. Such would-be open-minded "revolutionaries" invariably turn out to be the most narrow-minded and fanatical of people.

    Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.
     

    If you have actually read any pre-20th Century literature, you will notice that such 'social ostracisation' for any political view taken was practically unheard of. Even in strongly conservative states such as Tsarist Russia or the Hapsburg Empire, people with even the most radical views were generally looked upon fondly as curious eccentrics, unless they engaged in actual terrorism (and even then, they often remained admired, see how murderers of Tsarist state-officials had sentences commuted for 'purity of motive').
    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it's absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of 'mass' politics of the hysterical mob.

    Replies: @utu, @AP

    Reactionaries do not get respect from TF and his ilk and this is because they do not resort to drastic methods the so called progressives can openly talk in cafes. Would resorting to “escuadrones de la muerte” restore reactionaries respect in TF’s eyes? What about couple slashed throats and acid attacks on the most obnoxious progressive activists? At some point some people will do it and it is then when the reactionaries will have to make their most important decision.

  160. @showmethereal
    @Barbarossa

    So you think the parties in Wuhan while the west was being ravaged was fake??? No they weren't. Outsiders have to quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel... When clusters erupt in a city there is mass testing and SERIOUS contact tracing.... If you had contact - you have to quarantine... it's not an option. Enough cases in a city - they go into lockdown. No - you can't even go to the supermarket. The supermarkets go to each housing area and delivers food to the people in a controlled environment. Unless you have been there or speak to someone who actually lives there - you wouldn't understand. To even get on a domestic long distance train - you have to show Covid results... No such thing exists for domestic planes and trains in the US.
    Now in terms of reported cases - there is a difference because China only reports symptomatic cases... But the death rate??? Nope... They really take it that serious.

    The death rate in Hong Kong and Singapore was similar... Until South Korea began to open up and follow the west - it's death rate was similar as well. What about "Taiwan"??? There death rate is the same. So those US friends death rates are not questionable?? No - the answer is they all handled it very similarly (until recently).

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    This is why it’s unsustainable in the face of Omicron, which is far more transmissible but less virulent and lethal. I can imagine the entirety of China under such kind of lockdown for months on end, which will crush the entire global supply chain and fulfill A123’s dream of total production onshoring. Xian citizens are already sending SOS messages of shortages as this kind of distribution system is starting to fail, now scale it up to 1.4 billion in a few months. It will be the Great Leap Forward 2.0, and I hope they have learnt their lesson in not being institutionally suicidal. We count on a strong China to counter a failing US, and if both of them fails, the WEF takes over.

    • Replies: @PedroAstra
    @Yellowface Anon

    It seems to me (from talking to various contacts living there) that whatever Hong Kong is doing right now, is working, as far as non-suicidal zero-covid policies go. Is this your experience on the ground?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Showmethereal
    @Yellowface Anon

    Oh well I was just addressing the issue of whether the death rate is true or not... But I make no judgements otherwise. The breakdown in supply chain happened least in China actually... Check the import/export and production numbers around the globe.
    As to the people in Xian--- again not unique. Everywhere there was a lockdown in China some people complained..
    As to going forward - my GUESS is they are waiting as more managable strains work their way and the virus becomes "normal". But I dont pretend to have specific insight as to what they will do.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  161. @Shortsword
    @Yevardian


    The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can’t speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).
     
    The problem was low quantity. United States produced maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year (counting only cinematic releases).

    Replies: @utu

    “maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year” – Great overstatement. In mid 1980’s 150 feature films released in the USSR and about 500 in the US + Canada.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/187147/movie-releases-in-north-america-since-1980/

    https://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01982-4.html

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @utu


    In mid 1980’s 150 feature films released in the USSR and about 500 in the US + Canada.
     
    That doesn't sound right to me. I think you have to include tv films and such to get that number.

    You can find Soviet films by year here. They list about 90 per year in the 80s and that still includes a significant number of tv films and short films. There were probably more films than this made but this should at least include all proper "big release" films.
  162. @utu
    @Shortsword

    "maybe as many films in a month as Soviet Union did in a year" - Great overstatement. In mid 1980's 150 feature films released in the USSR and about 500 in the US + Canada.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/187147/movie-releases-in-north-america-since-1980/

    https://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-01982-4.html

    Replies: @Shortsword

    In mid 1980’s 150 feature films released in the USSR and about 500 in the US + Canada.

    That doesn’t sound right to me. I think you have to include tv films and such to get that number.

    You can find Soviet films by year here. They list about 90 per year in the 80s and that still includes a significant number of tv films and short films. There were probably more films than this made but this should at least include all proper “big release” films.

  163. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don’t eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.
     
    I'm not a fan of factory farming, but there's no need to jump the shark and forebear meat entirely, I instinctively distrust all vegetarians as misanthropic extinctionists. As for city-planning, especially considering the contribution of cars to noise pollution in 'our' cities, agreed. But this isn't a left/right issue.

    It’s natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do.
     
    The automobile was once seen as the vanguard of social 'progress' too. The word as you use it has no meaning. Progress over what, from where, to what end? Are you aware that the Nazis viewed themselves as 'progressive'? And quite accurately, too?

    Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     
    How typically progressive, you completely contradict yourself in just two sentences.

    Should people have listened to those opposed to women’s right to vote?
     

    It's always the progressive's prerogative to define what argument is 'serious' and therefore even worth debating at all. Such would-be open-minded "revolutionaries" invariably turn out to be the most narrow-minded and fanatical of people.

    Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.
     

    If you have actually read any pre-20th Century literature, you will notice that such 'social ostracisation' for any political view taken was practically unheard of. Even in strongly conservative states such as Tsarist Russia or the Hapsburg Empire, people with even the most radical views were generally looked upon fondly as curious eccentrics, unless they engaged in actual terrorism (and even then, they often remained admired, see how murderers of Tsarist state-officials had sentences commuted for 'purity of motive').
    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it's absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of 'mass' politics of the hysterical mob.

    Replies: @utu, @AP

    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it’s absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of ‘mass’ politics of the hysterical mob

    It seems to have been common among the American Puritans for moral/religious reasons. Secularised Puritans view social and political issues in moral terms. So the phenomenon of social shaming for incorrect political beliefs is not feminisation so much as it is a form of Americanisation.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Beckow
    @AP

    ...social shaming for incorrect political beliefs is not feminisation so much as it is a form of Americanisation.

    A core value of the original Puritan mentality was conformism. Within a group, shaming is used to enforce conformism.

    With Americanisation everything over time becomes for sale, that has been the key invention of America: everything-is-for-sale universal philosophy, all activities are monetised. That puts an actual price on courage and during times of stress courage becomes more expensive, and rare.

    The price of courage has gone up, it has left most people behind.

  164. @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”
     

    "A mysterious place where wine was blended and stored in 13th century Europe," according to owner.

    Sorry, I didn't mean that the name was intense, but the design, label. It has a kind of a gothic design with a flashy, red letter A in the center. This brand is very popular, especially among the millennials, maybe partly because of the way the label looks, which is very different from a classic, more conservative look.

    They have wines called "Crush", "Inferno", "Dark". This brand really stands out with its intense image. And it's a mass product, not boutique.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Emil Nikola Richard

    Interestingly enough, I just got through looking over the Chateau St. Michelle website. Of the wines that I’d be interested in sampling, most were in the \$65/bottle range, some as high as \$200. I’m not currently interested in white wines, and for some reason don’t pursue merlot wines either, finding them somehow lacking the right notes for my palate. I did see their “everyday” cabernet sauvignon that was going for about \$12/bottle that I’ll definitely be looking for. Can you recommend any others that I may have missed for say under \$15/bottle? What are some of your favorites, even those going for \$200/bottle?

  165. @LatW
    @Beckow


    Russkies of any kind (Ukies also scare them, they are too close)
     
    In a recent, rather depressing article on Ukraine Niall Ferguson speculated:

    "The Ukrainians not unreasonably complain that Romania and Bulgaria scarcely met all these [Copenhagen] criteria in 2006 (the year before they became EU members), to say nothing of 2000, when negotiations began. The fact that a current EU member — Hungary — today ranks not far above Ukraine in the Freedom House rankings of political freedom is also not lost on the Ukrainians.

    However, this is just an additional reason for EU foot-dragging [on supporting Ukraine's accession]. So unpopular is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Brussels these days that many European leaders and officials worry that admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold, which might then join forces with Hungary, Poland and any other populist-led states against an increasingly woke European Commission."
     

    Interesting that he knows the word "woke".

    Replies: @Beckow

    …admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold

    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process – a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by “woke“, with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying. Ukraine would bring down the average living standards in EU by 5-10% – that would had been manageable during the times of growth, but with the current stagnation it cannot be done. UK leaving was the last financial straw, the numbers just can’t be balanced.

    As all liberal global institutions they will stay around to provide illiberal benefits to their employees, issue verbiage and celebrate their anniversaries. A bit like the late-Middle Age Popes in Rome: jobs, money, parties, and ad maiorem dei gloriam…

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow


    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying
     
    Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey are also on the list for EU expansion.

    In addition to money, there is a structural problem. Under the existing EU deal, every sovereign nation has a veto on matters requiring unanimous consent. The system is already hamstrung at 27 members. It is hard to imagine any expansion under the existing structure.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @showmethereal

    , @LatW
    @Beckow


    the plan was to make them liberal enough
     
    And hence lies the problem with Western liberals. How liberal is liberal enough? This Ferguson's article is the first one I've seen openly admitting that Ukrainians might willingly swing illiberal and that the West might want to tread carefully here by investing too much in them. I will even insinuate further - let's keep Poland separated from Ukraine (the wild East), we don't want a whole group of large countries organizing because in that case the West will simply be unable to control them. They are wary of a larger illiberal Intermarium.

    These doubts from Ferguson, while valid, are not entirely fair to Ukraine since there are many democrats there. But they are typically center right liberals, not the woke type. The woke type would only develop much later from a small group of the European Solidarity types. Even the ones marching in remembrance of Stepan Bandera are mostly democrats in the sense of respecting and desiring the popular vote and national democrats. Very few even in that crowd are national socialists that support one man or one party rule.

    But it seems that it might not be liberal enough for certain Western types. Because if you're a national Democrat you are still looking out for your own and may not be very open to globalists either economically or politically.
    , @Mikhail
    @Beckow


    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process – a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by “woke“, with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)
     
    Fergy is a pro-Brit Empire Scot, with little, if any appreciation for the Russian Empire.
  166. @utu
    @Mikel

    "but one satellite-based record (UAH)" - UAH product is controlled by two outliers not belonging to the consensus: Roy Spencer and John Christy. As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won't be tweaked.

    I have serious doubts about the homogenization process and other corrections of the data from the past. It really seems that some data in some places were pushed down to show greater temperature gradients: "Who controls the past controls the future." Satellite data that are true global data exist only since the end of the 1970s.

    "The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. " - At some point BBC, NYT and other important media outlets decided that there would no longer be any dispute about global warming and thus only pro global warming stories - sometimes very idiotic - are reported. All kinds of scum scientists in peripheral sciences jumped on the global warming bandwagon realizing that is where the money is. The public is bombarded with nonsense of irrelevant and false stories.

    You are right that there is some integrity left in science as counterclaims are being investigated to some degree and if only their results were reported and popularized we would have more cool heads about the global warming. However my personal experience of people from NOAA, NCAR, NASA and DOE who work on climate and atmospheric science do no make me too hopeful that some meaningful coalition of more reasonable skeptics would emerge from among them. Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry. But life for atmospheric science practitioner was never that good as it is now as long as you go with the flow. Acid rain and ozone hole were just a prelude. Now they got drunk on power and prestige. They are like nuclear scientists in 1950s who won WWII and had power to destroy the whole world and thought that nuclear science and energy would answer all questions which led to hubris like nuclear planes. Most people were not aware that nuclear power was just the steam age technology where you would burn uranium instead of coal.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen

    As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won’t be tweaked.

    To be fair, they also modified the UAH record. But they did it in both directions, which is what you expect from observational errors, that they will be random, and not always in the same direction, as we only seem to get from the “consensus” temperature series. Still, Steven Mosher, part of the Berkeley Earth team and former skeptical blogger, says that the net effect of the homogenization of land records is to reduce the historical warming.

    Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry.

    Judith Curry committed the worst sin. She transitioned from part of consensus group to the skeptical camp and now doesn’t bother trying to publish. She explained that it’s not worth the effort, trying to circumvent the “peer-review” gatekeepers. Still, her latest papers were at least mentioned in the last IPCC report and she has been testifying before Congress several times.

    I think that the Working Group I reports of the IPCC (the scientific basis) have become quite reasonable, despite their pro-model bias, unlike the jokes of the WG-II, WG-III and the Summary for Policymakers, which is actually negotiated with the politicians themselves and often contains claims that are contradictory with the WG-I contents.

    I have an open mind to the global warming question but I’m old enough to remember how this scare began, right after the global cooling scare, and I’ve seen too many predictions that never materialized, such as part of Manhattan being under water by the year 2000 (James Hansen dixit). It is quite obvious that the climate science field is full of second-rate researchers who went to College with the intention of saving the world rather than the much more difficult task of understanding how nature really works.

    The most likely scenario while we trasition away from fossil fuels is a continuation of the benign warming that we have experienced up to now (both natural and man-made) but it has already become impossible to take rational measures based on a sane cost-benefit analysis. The Gretinist camp has won and I fear irrational politician’s actions more than global warming itself. They are clueless and, by their own words, they genuinely believe that we can stop floods and hurricanes from happening if we abandon fossil fuels.

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @A123
    @Mikel


    I have an open mind to the global warming question but I’m old enough to remember how this scare began, right after the global cooling scare, and I’ve seen too many predictions that never materialized
     
    The persistent hoaxes by Al Gore and his colleagues have permanently discredited and politicized the subject.

     
    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xVpuA_bA_To/UgMF79s16MI/AAAAAAAAa8U/U0l1cohaNpA/s1600/algorehoax.jpg
     

    The correct reaction to hysterical "Karens" panicked over climate mythology is pointing & laughing.

    Elites benefit from the non-science of Global Cooling / Warming / Change. Those at the top of the house set funding priorities. And, they will continue to channel grants to those who produce papers justfying their authoritarian ideology.
    ________

    It would be desirable to move the discussion out of the political realm, returning it to hard science. However, I do not see how to achieve that outcome.

    PEACE 😇
  167. @AP
    @songbird

    Scythians and their cousins the Sarmatians made a genetic contribution to the proto-Slavs and several Slavic words came from their languages, but they were a different people. I guess a rough analogy might be to the Norse influence and settlement among the Gaels, they were thoroughly assimilated and the language borrowings are so ancient they don't feel like foreign borrowings. But they are a different people.

    https://www.quora.com/How-many-Norse-loanwords-do-you-find-in-Irish

    This occurred before the Slavs spread out from their original homeland in northern Ukraine/southern Belarus/eastern Poland, so all the Slavs are a little bit Scythian (and Sarmatian) though Ukrainians perhaps more than the others because they stayed in the original homeland and didn't mix with others as they moved out (like Russians mixed with Finnic peoples, Czechs with Germans).

    Details of the influence of Scythian and Sarmatian Iranic languages on proto-Slavic are here:

    https://referenceworks.brillonline.com/entries/encyclopaedia-iranica-online/slavic-iranian-contacts-linguistic-relations-COM_336467

    The consensus within the current state of research holds that Iranian- and Slavic-speaking peoples came into contact in the second half of the first millennium BCE in the transition zone between steppe and forest to the north of the Black Sea.The Scythian language of these Iranians is known only fragmentarily, from names quoted by Herodotus and other ancient Greek authors and inscriptions from the northern coast of the Black Sea (see SCYTHIAN LANGUAGE); it has also left its trace in numerous place names, most famously the rivers Danube, Dniester, Dnieper, and Don (Ancient Gk. Tánais), all containing PIr. (Proto-Iranian) *dānu- ‘river’ (cf. Oss. don). The Scythians were dispersed westward by the arrival of the Sarmatians, who dominated the steppe in the last centuries BCE and early centuries CE. Commercial and military contacts between Iranians and Slavs intensified during this period, as successive waves of peoples moving westward from Asia pushed the Sarmatians and then the Alans west and north into the proximity of the Slavs’ home territory.

    That the religious and cultural worldview of the Iranians influenced the early Slavs is demonstrated by Slavic lexical items with solid PIE etymologies, but whose meanings are otherwise restricted to Iranian (Jakobson; Kuryłowicz; Benveniste, 1967): PSl. (Proto-Slavic) *slava ‘word’ (OCSl. [Old Church Slavonic] slovo) < OIr. *sravah- ‘glory, renown; word’ (Av. sravah-; contrast Ved. (Vedic) śrávas-, Gk. kléos ‘glory’); *bagu ‘riches, richness; god’ (OCSl. bogŭ; cf. bog-atŭ ‘rich,’ u-bogŭ ‘poor’; later replaced in the sense “richness” by bogatĭstvo) < OIr. *baga- ‘fortune; god’ (Av. baga- ‘share, lot; god,’ Sogd. βɣ- ‘god’; contrast Ved. bhága- ‘abundance; allocation (with reference to gods)’); and probably also *dīvu ‘demon, evil spirit of wilderness’ (OCSl. divŭ; cf. Old Rus. díviĭ, BCSM divlji ‘wild,’ Cz. divý ‘wild, mad,’ Bulg. div ‘wild, feral’) < OIr. *daiva- (q.v.) ‘demon, daēvic being’ (Av. daēva-, OPers. daiva-; contrast Ved. devá-, Lith. diẽvas, Lat. deus, Old Irish día ‘god’) and *rāji ‘paradise’ (OCSl. rajĭ) Arm. bagin ‘altar’; Reczek, 1987). The opposition of *bagu and *dīvu, and particularly the semantic depreciation of the latter from “god” to “demon,” suggest that the Iranians with whom the early Slavs came into contact adhered to a “primitive” version of Mazdaean dualism (Gołąb, 1975). However, despite the claims of Jakobson and others, no names of pagan Slavic deities may be definitively identified as Iranian borrowings.

    Standing beside these religious borrowings or calques are potential examples related to social organization: PSl. *mīru ‘world, peace’ (OCSl. mirŭ; Old Rus. mirŭ ‘village community’) < PIr. *miθra- (Humbach, pp. 124-25); PSl. *gaspadi ‘lord’ (OCSl. gospodĭ) < Mid. Pers. *guspad < OIr. *wić-pati- (with the Middle Persian change of word-initial *wi-) or Mid. Ir. *gas(t)pad < OIr. *gasti-pati- (Szemerényi, pp. 384-86, with preference for the former; but gospodĭ could have been remodeled after svobodĭ ‘free’).Additional items with likely Iranian sources are OCSl. čaša ‘potḗrion,’ Rus. chásha ‘drinking glass, bowl,’ etc. < Ir. *čaša(ka)- (to the root of Mod. Pers. čašidan ‘taste’; cf. Skt. caṣaka- ‘cup, wine glass,’ Arm. čašak ‘drinking vessel’); Rus. sobáka ‘dog’ (also attested outside East Slavic in Pol. (dial.), Kashubian sobaka ‘lecherous man’), which despite doubts can hardly be separated from Av. spaka- ‘doglike,’ Median spáka ‘female dog’ (Herodotus); PSl. taparu ‘ax’ (OCSl. toporŭ, Rus. topór) < Mid. Ir. *tapara- (Mid. Pers. tabrak, Pers. tabar, cf. Arm. tapar; perhaps metathesized from the notorious Wanderwort attested in Oss. færæt, Khot. paḍa, Toch. B peret, A porat, Turk. balta, etc.; see Abaev, 1995, I, p. 451); and, among words beginning with x-, *xarnā ‘food, sustenance’ (OCSl. xrana, Bulg. khrana, BCSM hrana) < OIr. *xwarnah- (Av. xvarənah- ‘food, drink’; Reczek, 1968), *xvaru ‘sick’ (Rus. khvóryĭ ‘sickly,’ Pol. chory ‘sick’) < OIr. *xwara- (Av. xvara- ‘wound’), and perhaps the name of the Croats, *xŭrvatŭ, if from OIr. *(fšu-)harwatar- ‘pastoralist’ (cf. Av. pasuš.hauruua- ‘watching over sheep’; Vasmer, 1953-58, III, p. 261). Two words of Iranian origin which have spread far and wide beyond Slavic are *xumeli ‘hops’ (OCSl. xŭmelĭ, Rus. khmel’, Pol. chmiel) < OIr. *hauma-aryaka- ‘Aryan soma’ (Oss. xwymællæg, Digor xumællæg ‘hops’; also borrowed into Germanic, Finno-Ugric, and Turkic; see Abaev, 1995, IV, pp. 261-62) and OCSl. sapogŭ ‘hypódēma,’ Rus. sapóg ‘boot’ < Mid. Ir. *sapaga- ‘hoof’ (cf. Av. safa-, Oss. sæftæg), the source of Mong. sab, Manchu sabu ‘shoe’ (Vasmer, 1953-58, II, pp. 578).

    To the second period of Slavic-Iranian contacts belong specifically East Slavic lexical items of Iranian origin.Their number is modest, but three likely examples are Old Rus. íreĭ (also výreĭ, výraĭ) ‘a southern land to which birds of passage migrate, a fabled magical realm’ < OIr. *a(i)rya- ‘Aryan’ (cf. Av. airiia-, OPers. ariya-; Vasmer, 1913, pp. 176-77; idem. 1924, pp. 367 [1971, pp. 6, 172]), Rus. mórda ‘snout’ < OIr. *mr̥da- ‘head’ (cf. Av. kamərəδa- ‘head (daēvic),’ Skt. mūrdhán- ‘head, peak’), and Rus. Church Slavonic xoměstorŭ ‘hamster’ < Mid. Ir. *hamēstar- (cf. Av. hamaēstar- ‘the one who throws to the ground’).Other candidates are Rus. step’ ‘steppe,’ cf. Oss. t’æp’æn ‘flat, level’ (< PIr. *(s)tap-; Bailey, p. 87; Trubachev, p. 39); Rus. khoróshiĭ ‘good,’ cf. Oss. xorz (Digor xwarz, Alanic [Tzetzes] xas /xwarz/); and Ukr. kháta ‘hut,’ if from OIr. *kata- ‘room, chamber’ (Av. kata-; Trubachev, pp. 41).In contrast, the West Slavic Iranianisms claimed by Trubachev and others, including such common verbs as Pol. patrzeć, patrzyć ‘look (at),’ Cz. patřit ‘belong’; Pol. (dial.) szatrzyć ‘know, remember,’ Cz. šetřit ‘save, spare’; Pol. dbać, Cz. dbát ‘take care’; and the all-important title Pol. pan, Cz. pán (Old Cz. hpán) < PSl. *gŭpanŭ < OIr. *gu-pāna- ‘cowherd’ (cf. Av. pəšu.pāna- ‘bridge-guarding,’ CSogd. xwšp’ny < *fšu-pāna-ka- ‘shepherd,’ but why *gu- for OIr. *gau- ‘cow’?) must be regarded as extremely uncertain (for alternative etymologies, see the respective entries in Rejzek, Boryś) and how such influence of an Iranian variety on the western dialects of Slavic could be interpreted in historical terms is also far from obvious.

    ::::::::::::::::::::::::

    Although the Slavs are partially Scythian/Sarmatian, the Ossetians are the last remaining "pure" speakers of that language.

    Replies: @songbird

    My snap impression is that there was potentially a lot of genetic turnover in the area of the Black Sea from Classical Greek times. Weren’t the Thracians (modern day Bulgaria) described as being red-haired and blue-eyed?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    How much of Thracian genes have stayed in modern Bulgaria?

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

  168. @AP
    @Yevardian


    Social shaming of people of dissenting views is recent phenomenon, it’s absolutely cowardly and pathetic, and absolutely a direct result of female political franchise, or simply the adoption of ‘mass’ politics of the hysterical mob
     
    It seems to have been common among the American Puritans for moral/religious reasons. Secularised Puritans view social and political issues in moral terms. So the phenomenon of social shaming for incorrect political beliefs is not feminisation so much as it is a form of Americanisation.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …social shaming for incorrect political beliefs is not feminisation so much as it is a form of Americanisation.

    A core value of the original Puritan mentality was conformism. Within a group, shaming is used to enforce conformism.

    With Americanisation everything over time becomes for sale, that has been the key invention of America: everything-is-for-sale universal philosophy, all activities are monetised. That puts an actual price on courage and during times of stress courage becomes more expensive, and rare.

    The price of courage has gone up, it has left most people behind.

  169. @Beckow
    @LatW


    ...admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold
     
    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process - a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by "woke", with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying. Ukraine would bring down the average living standards in EU by 5-10% - that would had been manageable during the times of growth, but with the current stagnation it cannot be done. UK leaving was the last financial straw, the numbers just can't be balanced.

    As all liberal global institutions they will stay around to provide illiberal benefits to their employees, issue verbiage and celebrate their anniversaries. A bit like the late-Middle Age Popes in Rome: jobs, money, parties, and ad maiorem dei gloriam...

    Replies: @A123, @LatW, @Mikhail

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying

    Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey are also on the list for EU expansion.

    In addition to money, there is a structural problem. Under the existing EU deal, every sovereign nation has a veto on matters requiring unanimous consent. The system is already hamstrung at 27 members. It is hard to imagine any expansion under the existing structure.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @A123

    Well there is something I can agree with you on.... It doesn't make any sense how the EU functions - trampling on each country's sovereign rights. I think ASEAN is a better model of a bloc. Even Mercosur. In a way I can't even blame the UK for leaving the EU. Trade and customs is one thing - but dictating individual laws and social structures is another.

  170. @Mikel
    @utu


    As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won’t be tweaked.
     
    To be fair, they also modified the UAH record. But they did it in both directions, which is what you expect from observational errors, that they will be random, and not always in the same direction, as we only seem to get from the "consensus" temperature series. Still, Steven Mosher, part of the Berkeley Earth team and former skeptical blogger, says that the net effect of the homogenization of land records is to reduce the historical warming.

    Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry.
     
    Judith Curry committed the worst sin. She transitioned from part of consensus group to the skeptical camp and now doesn't bother trying to publish. She explained that it's not worth the effort, trying to circumvent the "peer-review" gatekeepers. Still, her latest papers were at least mentioned in the last IPCC report and she has been testifying before Congress several times.

    I think that the Working Group I reports of the IPCC (the scientific basis) have become quite reasonable, despite their pro-model bias, unlike the jokes of the WG-II, WG-III and the Summary for Policymakers, which is actually negotiated with the politicians themselves and often contains claims that are contradictory with the WG-I contents.

    I have an open mind to the global warming question but I'm old enough to remember how this scare began, right after the global cooling scare, and I've seen too many predictions that never materialized, such as part of Manhattan being under water by the year 2000 (James Hansen dixit). It is quite obvious that the climate science field is full of second-rate researchers who went to College with the intention of saving the world rather than the much more difficult task of understanding how nature really works.

    The most likely scenario while we trasition away from fossil fuels is a continuation of the benign warming that we have experienced up to now (both natural and man-made) but it has already become impossible to take rational measures based on a sane cost-benefit analysis. The Gretinist camp has won and I fear irrational politician's actions more than global warming itself. They are clueless and, by their own words, they genuinely believe that we can stop floods and hurricanes from happening if we abandon fossil fuels.

    Replies: @A123

    I have an open mind to the global warming question but I’m old enough to remember how this scare began, right after the global cooling scare, and I’ve seen too many predictions that never materialized

    The persistent hoaxes by Al Gore and his colleagues have permanently discredited and politicized the subject.

     

     

    The correct reaction to hysterical “Karens” panicked over climate mythology is pointing & laughing.

    Elites benefit from the non-science of Global Cooling / Warming / Change. Those at the top of the house set funding priorities. And, they will continue to channel grants to those who produce papers justfying their authoritarian ideology.
    ________

    It would be desirable to move the discussion out of the political realm, returning it to hard science. However, I do not see how to achieve that outcome.

    PEACE 😇

  171. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree.
     
    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people's worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can't speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive and volatile as it is. Look at the total collapse of European film production outside of France (which continues to heavily subsidise its industry) since the 1980s, with most other European films being produced in conjuction with French funding and technical support.

    I don't actually this is a trivial issue either, especially with the Western youth population becoming increasingly illiterate, states should put up some sort of effort to stall the total Americanisation of its coming generation.

    I can't really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number), certainly not in terms of artistic quality, though I understand that they do very well financially. Though that still says very little about their intrinsic merits, given China's enormous internal market and its cultural distinctiveness.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @songbird, @Dmitry

    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made

    You think economics wasn’t a handicap? Well, the film Stalker was shot twice – the first time they messed up the film development because they weren’t used to working with Kodak 5247 stock. Wouldn’t have happened in the West.

    If you are a fan of Soviet film, perhaps, you should post a list.

    [MORE]

    Anyway, I am not talking about critics’ favorites. I am talking about audience favorites. And it seems probable that a lot of Soviet hits abroad were made with the aid of shady trade deals, and not by audience choice. The Soviet Union had nothing to compare with American blockbusters, like Star Wars or Aliens. The year the Soviet Union collapsed, Hollywood released T2. In a general way, The Soviet Union was bad at spectacle. (not that I am a fan of Hollywood, from my perspective they are cancerous)

    The Chinese definitely have a lot more potential to make waves. One reason being that they have more technology available to them. In theory, they could match Hollywood tit-for-tat when it comes to special effects. They could be very competitive in computer animation, whereas the Soviets were short on computers, and smuggling them in, was a way to make business deals.

    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people’s worst instincts

    I think you may be looking at it with rose-tinted glasses, to say “zero.” The film Zerograd (1988, have no seen it) has tits on the poster. Of course, that was after perestroika.

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive

    I’ve never said that I am a free-trader when it comes to culture, and the Chinese, even with their rather large market, have’t taken precisely that position either.

    BTW, I’d actually go further than you and say quality film-making requires careful censorship and cultural themes.

    I can’t really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number),

    If we were to compare Russian films or Hollywood films post-2010, to Chinese films, I would say that they were honestly all mostly crap.

    I see more potential for growth in Chinese quality than anywhere else. They don’t need to pander to diversity, unlike the US. One thing to keep in mind is that they are really trying to play economic catch-up. Yes, total box office has been exceeded, but they probably don’t have as many films that get above \$15 million. Right now, they are concerned more with growth than quality or export potential, but I expect that to change in a few years.

  172. @Yellowface Anon
    @showmethereal

    This is why it's unsustainable in the face of Omicron, which is far more transmissible but less virulent and lethal. I can imagine the entirety of China under such kind of lockdown for months on end, which will crush the entire global supply chain and fulfill A123's dream of total production onshoring. Xian citizens are already sending SOS messages of shortages as this kind of distribution system is starting to fail, now scale it up to 1.4 billion in a few months. It will be the Great Leap Forward 2.0, and I hope they have learnt their lesson in not being institutionally suicidal. We count on a strong China to counter a failing US, and if both of them fails, the WEF takes over.

    Replies: @PedroAstra, @Showmethereal

    It seems to me (from talking to various contacts living there) that whatever Hong Kong is doing right now, is working, as far as non-suicidal zero-covid policies go. Is this your experience on the ground?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @PedroAstra

    As far as every incoming flight is quarantined. And even then the floodgate has been opened after some air crew was exempt from quarantines.

    HK's vaccination rate is close to the US, and serious mandates are coming. Just imagine installing a vaccine passport system right after the civil unrest of 2019 - you'll see European levels of dysfunction.

    Replies: @Mikel

  173. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    "White Hispanic" Criollos (under the old colonial caste system) should definitely be able to claim Spanish & Portuguese citizenship.

    Replies: @songbird

    “White Hispanic” Criollos (under the old colonial caste system) should definitely be able to claim Spanish & Portuguese citizenship.

    I agree, but I don’t know if there is a state in Europe with a rational system of Jus sanguinis (though in theory it is widespread). It seems like it is often one parent (who for instance could be an Arab or African). In the case of Italy, in theory, it could be like one GGG grandparent, who miscegenated with Africans. (indeed there are Eritreans who are suing to get in)

    It is pretty clear that Europeans crafted their systems when they were used to interacting with their near neighbors and not with Africans. Like France with Germans in Alsace-Lorraine.

    Any rational system would involve an understanding of genetic distance, color-signaling, and group co-evolution. It would acknowledge truths like someone who miscegenates is less related to their children than they are to other co-ethnics.

    • Replies: @Cutler
    @songbird

    The majority of Jus Sanguinis applicants from Latin America are from Argentina and Southern Brazil and I would assume the vast majority are White/ Phenotypically European as most have ancestors who left Italy at the turn of the century who largely settled areas that were already heavily European ie Espirito Santo Parana Buenos Aires etc and mixed amongst themselves for the most part.
    The Brothers of Italy party are saying Italy should be finding its immigrants from the Italian diaspora rather than non Europeans from Africa Asia etc.

  174. @Yellowface Anon
    @showmethereal

    This is why it's unsustainable in the face of Omicron, which is far more transmissible but less virulent and lethal. I can imagine the entirety of China under such kind of lockdown for months on end, which will crush the entire global supply chain and fulfill A123's dream of total production onshoring. Xian citizens are already sending SOS messages of shortages as this kind of distribution system is starting to fail, now scale it up to 1.4 billion in a few months. It will be the Great Leap Forward 2.0, and I hope they have learnt their lesson in not being institutionally suicidal. We count on a strong China to counter a failing US, and if both of them fails, the WEF takes over.

    Replies: @PedroAstra, @Showmethereal

    Oh well I was just addressing the issue of whether the death rate is true or not… But I make no judgements otherwise. The breakdown in supply chain happened least in China actually… Check the import/export and production numbers around the globe.
    As to the people in Xian— again not unique. Everywhere there was a lockdown in China some people complained..
    As to going forward – my GUESS is they are waiting as more managable strains work their way and the virus becomes “normal”. But I dont pretend to have specific insight as to what they will do.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Showmethereal

    I was actually imagining all, or even much of the country in lockdown. It nearly happened back in the first outbreak.

    They still plan for elimination judging by their eagerness to lock down over a handful of cases. They'll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  175. @Thulean Friend
    On environmentalism, so much of the discussion gets limited to energy forms while ignoring the wider social ramifications, such as the destruction of our cities.

    https://i.imgur.com/GIplVM8.jpg

    This degradation is invisible to those who were born into it, so they take it for granted or, worse, even defend it. But all over Europe there is a slow movement to reclaim our cities. Latest example from Austria, above.

    There is also the fact that our food supply system is deeply broken. A lot of diseases begin in animals due to factory farming and then jump to humans. I don't eat meat, but even if I did I would be worried about this. As should everyone who cares about limited and preferably eliminating disease spread from animals to humans.

    Air pollution by coal is an obvious issue, but far less attention is given noise pollution, especially in big cities, where cars are a major problem. In other words, environmentalism isn't just about crossing the baseline of "we should survive as a species", which is pathetically low. It should be about "we must dramatically raise our standard of living and civilisation".

    It's natural that any progress will be opposed by reactionaries, because that is what reactionaries do. Given these realities, there is no alternative than just bulldozing any opposition. Should people have listened to those opposed to women's right to vote? It's not a serious argument. Anyone still holding those views understands well to keep them private since social ostracisation is now very strong, and rightfully so.

    Replies: @Yevardian, @songbird

    but far less attention is given noise pollution, especially in big cities, where cars are a major problem.

    I agree completely, but would go further: sun-belt people, like Brazilians, increasingly are going for jaunts in the countryside, with their car speakers blazing horrible, tasteless music, which should be confined to eco-friendly zones of rap, like the hellscape of Somalia, where there is not much worthwhile wildlife to concern oneself about disturbing.

  176. @Yevardian
    @songbird


    I think that the Soviet film industry was hampered a lot by economics, which is a problem that China has already circumvented, to a large degree.
     
    What the hell are you talking about? The USSR made an extremely large proportion of the greatest films ever made. Soviet-era directors like Alexei German, Aleksandr Sokurov & Nikita Mikhalkov continued to make strong films even after the dissolution of the USSR, sometimes obtaining non-Russian funding on the strength of their reputations.
    Even the average output was of very high quality, there was little to no outright trash, no pandering to people's worst instincts, and films of that era remain popular to this day in all the former states of the Soviet Union (perhaps with the exception of the Balts, which I can't speak of, though I imagine cinema output crashed utterly there, as everywhere else in the region).

    Quality filmmaking, like airlines or non-profitable areas of scientific research, depends heavily on state-protectionism and funding, being as expensive and volatile as it is. Look at the total collapse of European film production outside of France (which continues to heavily subsidise its industry) since the 1980s, with most other European films being produced in conjuction with French funding and technical support.

    I don't actually this is a trivial issue either, especially with the Western youth population becoming increasingly illiterate, states should put up some sort of effort to stall the total Americanisation of its coming generation.

    I can't really say the same for Chinese films (I have seen about 30 odd, not a large number), certainly not in terms of artistic quality, though I understand that they do very well financially. Though that still says very little about their intrinsic merits, given China's enormous internal market and its cultural distinctiveness.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @songbird, @Dmitry

    USSR .. greatest films

    There are indeed wonderful films from the Soviet Union. And innovations of directors, especially Eisenshtein who had significant influence on even international 20th century film editing culture.

    But there was also downward pressure from the authorities, which actually ruins many films, creates many problematic changes to stories.

    You also said the name Tarkovsky, who has become an exile and his later films were produced in Italy, Sweden, etc, despite his cult popularity in the USSR. He was also possibly killed by industrial pollution in Estonia.

    There is this very dual pressures in the USSR, where the level of artistic training was possibly the highest in the world. But the potential is not always realized.

    Another mixed situation could be Mikhail Kalatozov. Incredibly talented director, but who produces very propagandistic film for Cuba “Soy Cuba” that can be a bit difficult to watch today.

    Then there are artists like Shostakovich, which could be an ambiguous example, where he wasn’t allowed to develop organically. But his most popular works (e.g. Fifth Symphony) sometimes came after the authorities bully him.

    But then Shostakovich has a very stressed life and perhaps we lost a couple symphonies at the end from his heart failure.

    heavily on state-protectionism and funding

    There are mixed situations on this topic in the Soviet Union.

    For example, Kurosawa’s “Dersu Uzala”, a wonderful film, funded by Mosfilm. On the other hand, ( fashionable cult director) Tarkovsky goes to exile, with last films funded by Gaumont.

    I agree that these artistic directors often require state funding, as there isn’t enough of popular to demand to realize private funding for their often expensive visions.

  177. @songbird
    Could AK claim Italian citizenship based on their definition of jus sanguinis?

    And shouldn't it be considered a structural flaw of the EU, as it seems to open up the possibility than tens of millions of Mestizos could immigrate to Europe? (not counting the millions who have come already)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Dmitry

    I guess it’s interesting question, if Italy accepts those commercial DNA tests (I doubt it). Italy does give citizenship to anyone with an Italian ancestor. But the commercial DNA test can probably just misread people from small nationality who were not in their database. Are there any DNA experts here who can comment.

    Karlin’s said he is descended from Laks, which is a very small tribal nationality in Dagestan, with only a few thousand people. It’s possible the DNA test company simply doesn’t have an Lak people in its database. Maybe the company doesn’t want to provide refunds (they are just private money-makers) and assigns some Italian ancestry to the mystery DNA, as that had some similar patterns.

    It wouldn’t be surprising if Karlin was the first person from Lak nationality to apply for a DNA test.

    If you look at the interviews of a Lak at 1:09 in the video, they have identical twin of AK. Such a visual resemblance is perhaps more accurate than the commercial DNA test, for such a small nationality.

    This dude at 1:09 it looks visually identical to Karlin. So there is indeed probably the real nationality.

    It would be funny if you could attain Italian nationality though by such methods. Kind of absurd but it would be worth trying considering the potential reward would be so high.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Dmitry

    From reading the subtext, I got the impression that AK could recognize an Italian surname in his tree somewhere.

    Though, I agree with you in principal that commercial tests often leave something to be desired - to do a really good job, IMO, you would have to spend more money on it than they did and even dig up 500 year old (or older) skeletons.

    One funny thing is all the Euro nationalists who think they are being gaslit, by the companies claiming they have trace Jewish roots. IMO, this probably isn't intentional, but has to do with the models being flawed as Jews were really excited with the technology and probably participated more and were given more weight in the models.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  178. @songbird
    @AP

    My snap impression is that there was potentially a lot of genetic turnover in the area of the Black Sea from Classical Greek times. Weren't the Thracians (modern day Bulgaria) described as being red-haired and blue-eyed?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    How much of Thracian genes have stayed in modern Bulgaria?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Yellowface Anon

    I suspect that they have been diluted and subsumed. Easy to hide recessive genes. When I look at images, it seems a surprising number of Bulgarians have light or red hair. Though, IIRC, AC Doyle observing Bulgarians POWs in WWI, described them as looking small (probably partly due to lower development), dark, and weak compared to British people.

    , @AP
    @Yellowface Anon

    Probably a fair amount. Not many Slavic genes in that place though.

  179. @PedroAstra
    @Yellowface Anon

    It seems to me (from talking to various contacts living there) that whatever Hong Kong is doing right now, is working, as far as non-suicidal zero-covid policies go. Is this your experience on the ground?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    As far as every incoming flight is quarantined. And even then the floodgate has been opened after some air crew was exempt from quarantines.

    HK’s vaccination rate is close to the US, and serious mandates are coming. Just imagine installing a vaccine passport system right after the civil unrest of 2019 – you’ll see European levels of dysfunction.

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Yellowface Anon


    you’ll see European levels of dysfunction.
     
    That was a cruel remark. Please be merciful with us when you finally become the world overlords.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  180. @Showmethereal
    @Yellowface Anon

    Oh well I was just addressing the issue of whether the death rate is true or not... But I make no judgements otherwise. The breakdown in supply chain happened least in China actually... Check the import/export and production numbers around the globe.
    As to the people in Xian--- again not unique. Everywhere there was a lockdown in China some people complained..
    As to going forward - my GUESS is they are waiting as more managable strains work their way and the virus becomes "normal". But I dont pretend to have specific insight as to what they will do.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I was actually imagining all, or even much of the country in lockdown. It nearly happened back in the first outbreak.

    They still plan for elimination judging by their eagerness to lock down over a handful of cases. They’ll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Yellowface Anon

    "They’ll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity."

    Well that is absolutely what this is all about... Preparing for potential biowarfare from the west (which probably has already been going on agriculturally - which is why we saw in 2021 - food reserves were boosted as well - and grain production hit an all time high). No question about it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  181. @LatW
    @Dmitry

    I didn't mean for the conversation to veer towards just wine, it's just your passive aggressive dig about how Mr Hack needs Aldi to eat clean kind of triggered me. :) You're really good at that. :) When you said Mr Hack needs European stores with EU regulations to be protected and healthy it sounded a bit like when Andrei Martyanov said he won't be buying German cars because they are "over engineered and overpriced".

    High end grocery stores, especially the co-ops, are better than anything in Europe and Europe will probably never have anything of that quality or variety. And European stores, including in EE, are great. Btw, it's good that the EU has those protective regulations. But in the US it's less regulated (although I doubt it it's the case with food), but people get to choose themselves what's good for them or not. This is why religion was traditionally more important in the US, because religion helps you make more "healthy" lifestyle choices. You're independent but still constrained by religion. Anyway, nowadays it's a class thing. But it can make a difference, for instance, there is less sugar in the peanut butter and jelly that's sold at the high end store vs the regular store. Over the long term, this can make a difference in your child's weight.

    If Aldi is really as cheap as they say, then it speaks very well for Germany... not surprising as Germany is known for its cheap but good quality food, clothing and rents. When you take care of your population like that, that's a sign of real wealth.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    just wine,

    Lol what is so bad about talking wine? We can always return to more exciting topics of kale and mushrooms if you wish.

    Actually I didn’t like wine until a couple years ago. So many nights indoors with the pandemic, has pushed me to enjoy wine. I’m even not disliking red wines nowadays. What about you?

    I would agree with you about not needing to import EU wine in the USA. But then I just buy the cheapest wine bottles, so just here to add my opinion uselessly.

    I remember Aaron B was posting about “terroir” ( https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-168/#comment-4969089 ). And considering the style and organization of his posts, I’m assuming we should listen to his expertise as he knows more about wine than the rest of us. 🙂

    Aldi is really as cheap as they say, then it speaks very well for Germany…

    They also sell expensive luxury products, as well as cheaper less quality ones. But those luxury products are usually seeming good value relative to what product quality they sold.

    You know Mr Hack said they started to open Aldi in the USA and I was recommending it to him so he can eat more cleanly like the EU people. But it looks like they are selling a lot of American products there. Then there are some German wines like Riesling
    https://www.aldi.us/en/products/alcohol/white-wine/

  182. @Beckow
    @LatW


    ...admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold
     
    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process - a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by "woke", with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying. Ukraine would bring down the average living standards in EU by 5-10% - that would had been manageable during the times of growth, but with the current stagnation it cannot be done. UK leaving was the last financial straw, the numbers just can't be balanced.

    As all liberal global institutions they will stay around to provide illiberal benefits to their employees, issue verbiage and celebrate their anniversaries. A bit like the late-Middle Age Popes in Rome: jobs, money, parties, and ad maiorem dei gloriam...

    Replies: @A123, @LatW, @Mikhail

    the plan was to make them liberal enough

    And hence lies the problem with Western liberals. How liberal is liberal enough? This Ferguson’s article is the first one I’ve seen openly admitting that Ukrainians might willingly swing illiberal and that the West might want to tread carefully here by investing too much in them. I will even insinuate further – let’s keep Poland separated from Ukraine (the wild East), we don’t want a whole group of large countries organizing because in that case the West will simply be unable to control them. They are wary of a larger illiberal Intermarium.

    These doubts from Ferguson, while valid, are not entirely fair to Ukraine since there are many democrats there. But they are typically center right liberals, not the woke type. The woke type would only develop much later from a small group of the European Solidarity types. Even the ones marching in remembrance of Stepan Bandera are mostly democrats in the sense of respecting and desiring the popular vote and national democrats. Very few even in that crowd are national socialists that support one man or one party rule.

    But it seems that it might not be liberal enough for certain Western types. Because if you’re a national Democrat you are still looking out for your own and may not be very open to globalists either economically or politically.

  183. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    I guess it's interesting question, if Italy accepts those commercial DNA tests (I doubt it). Italy does give citizenship to anyone with an Italian ancestor. But the commercial DNA test can probably just misread people from small nationality who were not in their database. Are there any DNA experts here who can comment.

    Karlin's said he is descended from Laks, which is a very small tribal nationality in Dagestan, with only a few thousand people. It's possible the DNA test company simply doesn't have an Lak people in its database. Maybe the company doesn't want to provide refunds (they are just private money-makers) and assigns some Italian ancestry to the mystery DNA, as that had some similar patterns.

    It wouldn't be surprising if Karlin was the first person from Lak nationality to apply for a DNA test.

    If you look at the interviews of a Lak at 1:09 in the video, they have identical twin of AK. Such a visual resemblance is perhaps more accurate than the commercial DNA test, for such a small nationality.

    This dude at 1:09 it looks visually identical to Karlin. So there is indeed probably the real nationality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmLXW4QSpmM

    It would be funny if you could attain Italian nationality though by such methods. Kind of absurd but it would be worth trying considering the potential reward would be so high.

    Replies: @songbird

    From reading the subtext, I got the impression that AK could recognize an Italian surname in his tree somewhere.

    Though, I agree with you in principal that commercial tests often leave something to be desired – to do a really good job, IMO, you would have to spend more money on it than they did and even dig up 500 year old (or older) skeletons.

    One funny thing is all the Euro nationalists who think they are being gaslit, by the companies claiming they have trace Jewish roots. IMO, this probably isn’t intentional, but has to do with the models being flawed as Jews were really excited with the technology and probably participated more and were given more weight in the models.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn't run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I'm still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird, @AP

  184. @Yellowface Anon
    @PedroAstra

    As far as every incoming flight is quarantined. And even then the floodgate has been opened after some air crew was exempt from quarantines.

    HK's vaccination rate is close to the US, and serious mandates are coming. Just imagine installing a vaccine passport system right after the civil unrest of 2019 - you'll see European levels of dysfunction.

    Replies: @Mikel

    you’ll see European levels of dysfunction.

    That was a cruel remark. Please be merciful with us when you finally become the world overlords.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Mikel

    Wait, what? Compradors-turned-emigrants becoming the Masters?

    The least thing I'm preparing my descendents to be are Jews.

  185. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    How much of Thracian genes have stayed in modern Bulgaria?

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    I suspect that they have been diluted and subsumed. Easy to hide recessive genes. When I look at images, it seems a surprising number of Bulgarians have light or red hair. Though, IIRC, AC Doyle observing Bulgarians POWs in WWI, described them as looking small (probably partly due to lower development), dark, and weak compared to British people.

  186. @utu
    @Dmitry

    "Lol Utu is definitely some kind of upper class connoisseur. " - Fuck off and Fuck no, I disagreed because LatW's post was too Pollyannish about the special food stores, no GMO and so on in the US and too uncritical about the alleged importance of differences between foods in stores of class A and class B in terms of health impact.

    Yes, if he lives in Boulder, CO which was the epicenter of health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF) I can see his position but I do not think that Boulder experience is scalable and I do not believe that you necessarily can trust local farmers or mom-and-pop stores and sometimes even less than big suppliers.

    I do not care about wines this way or another. Most I ever drunk I did not enjoy and most people who style themselves to be some kind of wine connoisseurs I see as people who are unaware of their own silliness and pretentiousness. The same goes for beer and whisky connoisseurs and the most ridiculous are vodka connoisseurs.

    Replies: @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    Fuck no, I disagreed

    Ok you can still pretend you are not an upper class connoisseur.

    But lol there is some people here like AaronB definitely already betrayed they are not on the side of the working class, after that post he was writing about why he only eats Normandy butter and appreciates “Jasper Hill Farms in Vermont” https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-168/#comment-4969089

    health food stores boom where the most important of them like Wild Oats were taken over by The Whole Foods (and I am dubious about TWF)

    This Whole Foods chain was what they were referring in 0:30 in a Sacha Baron Cohen film “Dictator (2012)” (btw this film is not recommended even as a comedy film, although with some funny sections).

    vodka connoisseurs.

    Yes I felt like although there are great differences in the taste of vodka, it’s all because you buy a really too cheap bottle. As long as you didn’t buy a too cheap bottle, then it tastes not much better or worse. Although who knows maybe the connoisseurs notice more.

  187. @songbird
    @Dmitry

    From reading the subtext, I got the impression that AK could recognize an Italian surname in his tree somewhere.

    Though, I agree with you in principal that commercial tests often leave something to be desired - to do a really good job, IMO, you would have to spend more money on it than they did and even dig up 500 year old (or older) skeletons.

    One funny thing is all the Euro nationalists who think they are being gaslit, by the companies claiming they have trace Jewish roots. IMO, this probably isn't intentional, but has to do with the models being flawed as Jews were really excited with the technology and probably participated more and were given more weight in the models.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I’m still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Dmitry


    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I’m still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

     

    Suspect a lot of people believing a Jewish or mostly Jewish background would get similar results. Syrian and other Jews from the Middle East typically look more Syrian than East European Jews. Comparatively speaking, the latter often looking like their non-Jew inhabitants from Eastern Europe.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @songbird
    @Dmitry


    So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove.
     
    Probably anywhere in the Med would have to have really strict definitions, as there are wide cultural gaps, as well as some ancient gene transfer. Like Taleb is probably somewhat Greek, maybe quite a bit, but sometimes he really acts like an Arab.

    In the case of the Ashkenazim, I suspect that there is some Italian or German ancestry that has been misattributed to them, when really it is the reverse, which makes quite a bit of sense, when one considers that they are a bottleneck population. So, for example, the DNA that they got from some Italian woman, might appear more prototypically Jewish than it is prototypically Italian, because it appears in more Jews than Italians, even though its origin is Italian.

    In the case of Russians, I think Russians are more motley group, who may genuinely more often have trace Jewish DNA, and it is possibly easier to pick out than in Central Europeans, who in part form a root input into the Ashkenazim.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @AP
    @Dmitry


    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.
     
    AFAIK the database looks at reported ancestry and genetics. So therefore, if in the Middle Ages a Polish man had kids with a Jewish woman and they had numerous descendants, while meanwhile his siblings and cousins collectively had fewer descendants, his particular genetic type would be counted as Ashkenazi Jewish even though in reality it was not, because most people in the database with that fingerprint are Jews.



    Something similar is probably true of small obscure nationalities that have mixed with larger ones. My wife is 1/8 Kalmyk, one can see her Asian features and stronger ones in her 1/4 Kalmyk father and very strong ones in her 1/2 Kalmyk grandfather (who completely looked like an Asian guy despite having had a blonde blue eyed Russian father). But according to 23andme she is 99.8% European. Probably this is because there are very few Kalmyks in the database but a lot of Russians of partial Kalmyk descent in the database, so Kalmyk genes are counted as Eastern European/Russian.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  188. @songbird
    Were the Scythians proto-Ukrainians? Or did the Slavs kill them off, like in the Russian movie The Scythian (2018)?

    And should we believe Herodotus, when he says that they wove marijuana into clothing, as well as bathed in its smoke? Not to mention, had capes made out of the scalps of their enemies?

    Replies: @AP, @Emil Nikola Richard

    (fellow who made the video is a zealot! It’s a pretty decent video.)

    • Thanks: songbird
  189. @LatW
    @Mr. Hack


    Apotheca:

    “In ancient Greece and Rome, a storeroom of any kind, but esp. one for storing wine.”
     

    "A mysterious place where wine was blended and stored in 13th century Europe," according to owner.

    Sorry, I didn't mean that the name was intense, but the design, label. It has a kind of a gothic design with a flashy, red letter A in the center. This brand is very popular, especially among the millennials, maybe partly because of the way the label looks, which is very different from a classic, more conservative look.

    They have wines called "Crush", "Inferno", "Dark". This brand really stands out with its intense image. And it's a mass product, not boutique.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Emil Nikola Richard

    In my neighborhood wine outlet they have a life size cardboard placard of Snoop Dogg peddling vintage red wine. It is bizarre. I’m pretty sure Snoop drinks Hennesey and Coke. His label is called Nineteen Crimes.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    The alcohol business attracts surprising participants.

    Racing legend Scott Pruett opened his own winery.
    https://www.pruettvineyard.com/

    Top Gear / Grand Tour host James May launched his own brand of gin.
    https://www.ginandtonicly.com/news/james-may-launches-his-own-craft-gin/

     
    https://www.ginandtonicly.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/james-gin-3-1170x600.jpg
     

    PEACE 😇

     


     
    https://www.motorsport-total.com/img/2015/150919/210752_w620_h500.jpg

     
    https://www.cawineclub.com/images/featured_wineries/523_wi_2_650X306_PRUETT__1_.png

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    , @Dmitry
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    This is just a popular Australian blended red wine in the supermarkets in Europe. They signed some sponsorship with Snoop I guess.

    This wine usually markets by posting stories about Australian criminals on the bottle. I assume their marketing strategy is to seem "gangster" to attract slightly younger wine buyers, but also to represent the Australian heritage of the wine.

    It normally has some photos of impressive looking Australian gangsters and criminals on their bottle.

    I'm kind of a fan of some of Snoop Dogg's early songs so would be their target demographic. I.e. people that buy cheap red wine in the supermarket and are fans of 1990s hip hop. But even I'm not gullible enough for such incoherent marketing to buy an Australian blended wine, because of an Californian rapper. At least Snoop should be on a Californian wine label.

    Have to appreciate, the graphic designers who made that bottle have some professional skill though.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

  190. @Beckow
    @LatW


    ...admitting Ukraine would add another illiberal semi-autocracy within the EU fold
     
    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process - a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by "woke", with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying. Ukraine would bring down the average living standards in EU by 5-10% - that would had been manageable during the times of growth, but with the current stagnation it cannot be done. UK leaving was the last financial straw, the numbers just can't be balanced.

    As all liberal global institutions they will stay around to provide illiberal benefits to their employees, issue verbiage and celebrate their anniversaries. A bit like the late-Middle Age Popes in Rome: jobs, money, parties, and ad maiorem dei gloriam...

    Replies: @A123, @LatW, @Mikhail

    The plan was to make them liberal enough during the admission process – a lengthy rainbow ritual with Brussels freaks offering money for each additional act. They like that kind of stuff, to the likes of Neill Fergusson it brings back deep memories of the raj and the homo burdens they carried around the globe. (I will not speculate what Fergusson means by “woke“, with the anglo-Belgian perverts they probably reenact it.)

    Fergy is a pro-Brit Empire Scot, with little, if any appreciation for the Russian Empire.

  191. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @LatW

    In my neighborhood wine outlet they have a life size cardboard placard of Snoop Dogg peddling vintage red wine. It is bizarre. I'm pretty sure Snoop drinks Hennesey and Coke. His label is called Nineteen Crimes.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0602/7673/6237/products/Cali-Red_2048x.png

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry

    The alcohol business attracts surprising participants.

    Racing legend Scott Pruett opened his own winery.
    https://www.pruettvineyard.com/

    Top Gear / Grand Tour host James May launched his own brand of gin.
    https://www.ginandtonicly.com/news/james-may-launches-his-own-craft-gin/

     

     

    PEACE 😇

     

    [MORE]

     

     

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    This is probably the most unbelievable commercial endorsing a cheap wine ever produced, with the blue blooded James Mason (a great actor) endorsing Thunderbird wine. T-bird wine was most notably known as a cheap wine that alcoholic bums (homeless transients) would drink along with other stellar choices such as "Ripple" "Mad Dog", "Bali Hi" and some others too that now escape me. Our favorite was a sweet Spanish one called "Yago", but we were teenagers, not English movie stars that undoubtedly had bankrolls that should have merited something all together on a higher plane. "Drink what you like" is taken to a whole new level here:

    https://youtu.be/0xY7mBQrzXU

    "T-Bird wine has an unusual taste, all its own. An exceptional wine good for all occasions. Not quite like anything I've ever tasted...it has a delightful flavor..." Indeed. :-)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  192. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @LatW

    In my neighborhood wine outlet they have a life size cardboard placard of Snoop Dogg peddling vintage red wine. It is bizarre. I'm pretty sure Snoop drinks Hennesey and Coke. His label is called Nineteen Crimes.

    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0602/7673/6237/products/Cali-Red_2048x.png

    Replies: @A123, @Dmitry

    This is just a popular Australian blended red wine in the supermarkets in Europe. They signed some sponsorship with Snoop I guess.

    This wine usually markets by posting stories about Australian criminals on the bottle. I assume their marketing strategy is to seem “gangster” to attract slightly younger wine buyers, but also to represent the Australian heritage of the wine.

    It normally has some photos of impressive looking Australian gangsters and criminals on their bottle.

    I’m kind of a fan of some of Snoop Dogg’s early songs so would be their target demographic. I.e. people that buy cheap red wine in the supermarket and are fans of 1990s hip hop. But even I’m not gullible enough for such incoherent marketing to buy an Australian blended wine, because of an Californian rapper. At least Snoop should be on a Californian wine label.

    Have to appreciate, the graphic designers who made that bottle have some professional skill though.

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Dmitry

    Today on my morning walk I passed an old lady with two beagles on leashes. I cheerfully said "snoopy dogs!"

    She harrrumffd at me. : (

  193. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn't run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I'm still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird, @AP

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I’m still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    Suspect a lot of people believing a Jewish or mostly Jewish background would get similar results. Syrian and other Jews from the Middle East typically look more Syrian than East European Jews. Comparatively speaking, the latter often looking like their non-Jew inhabitants from Eastern Europe.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mikhail


    Middle East typically look more Syrian
     
    Yes you can see in Israel, the population is a mix of many races, although to be fair to Israel unlike in some claims the majority of people are (Jews and Muslims) immigrants directly from nearby regions of the Middle East, and this is evident in the appearance of the population.

    For genetics of European Jews, there would be surely pre-existing desire to discover their origin as native to the Middle East, as this would both match the secular political state-building, as well as religious narratives.

    So it's understandable that conspiracy theorists can be questioning about genetic studies of European Jews, when the topic has a politically desired answer. But who knows? I'd like to believe scientists will try to be objective.

    -


    In terms of the Russian DNA, it's possible these commercial tests are discovering non-slavic ancestry, because the population of Russia which preceded the slavic tribes' invasion/colonization in Russia.

    This is just my superficial, amateur speculation.

    But slavic tribes immigrated to Russia in the 8th-9th century. But when the slavic population flooded into the territory as described in the chronicles, there were many native tribes in Russia who are perhaps only displaced culturally, rather than genetically.

    These nationalities which existed before the slavic tribes flood into Russia, like the Ves, Chud Zavolochskaya. These became mostly extinct in the cultural sense, but surely not in the genetic one. Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.

    When you look at pre-slavic populations of Russia like Vepsy today, it's not like we could visually distinguish them from the slavic (or slavicized) population.

    https://lenobl.ru/media/cache/21/6e/216eca8e43a15021eb33960751fa4471.png

    http://администрация-алеховщина.рф/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/24aaf3447d4fdbcc8ae16c6370d8510f.jpg

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @melanf, @melanf

  194. @Yellowface Anon
    @songbird

    How much of Thracian genes have stayed in modern Bulgaria?

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    Probably a fair amount. Not many Slavic genes in that place though.

  195. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn't run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I'm still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird, @AP

    So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove.

    Probably anywhere in the Med would have to have really strict definitions, as there are wide cultural gaps, as well as some ancient gene transfer. Like Taleb is probably somewhat Greek, maybe quite a bit, but sometimes he really acts like an Arab.

    In the case of the Ashkenazim, I suspect that there is some Italian or German ancestry that has been misattributed to them, when really it is the reverse, which makes quite a bit of sense, when one considers that they are a bottleneck population. So, for example, the DNA that they got from some Italian woman, might appear more prototypically Jewish than it is prototypically Italian, because it appears in more Jews than Italians, even though its origin is Italian.

    In the case of Russians, I think Russians are more motley group, who may genuinely more often have trace Jewish DNA, and it is possibly easier to pick out than in Central Europeans, who in part form a root input into the Ashkenazim.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @songbird

    There are times in modern European history, when Jewish villages had very high fertility rates, at the same moment that a significant proportion of the young villagers are escaping the villages, even changing their name, converting to Christianity and running away from Judaism.

    There were events like unvoluntary conscription of children from the Jewish villages to the army for decades, who then could not return to their villages, or when they return from the army would not be religious enough to be able to marry some rabbi's daughter in their village.
    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/cantonists

    There are also often Jewish prisoners and settlers being thrown to the Far East and Siberia, where they would almost never be able to marry Jewish women.

    So it's possible that the commercial genetic tests are catching some of the traces of this very distant ancestry, from that historical outflow of people from Ashkenazi villages. This is aside from the more knowable ancestry people have from the 20th century.

    Of course, it's also possible that the tests are simply unreliable. Either way, it's considered meaningless from the viewpoint of the Jewish authorities.

    You need to prove you have Jewish ancestry with the documents and family research. It can cost quite a lot of money. Then you have send these documents to be inspected by their experts, who stamp that they are authentic (as a lot of people are trying with fake documents). ​

    In my family we were able to prove Jewish ancestry for my grandfather. But it was like a history research project. We had all the real documentation, chains of evidence. It's fortunately not based from some unreliable commercial DNA tests, which seem partly designed for Influencers to post about themselves on Instagram.

  196. @utu
    @Mikel

    "but one satellite-based record (UAH)" - UAH product is controlled by two outliers not belonging to the consensus: Roy Spencer and John Christy. As long as Spencer and Christi are there I have some hope that satellite data won't be tweaked.

    I have serious doubts about the homogenization process and other corrections of the data from the past. It really seems that some data in some places were pushed down to show greater temperature gradients: "Who controls the past controls the future." Satellite data that are true global data exist only since the end of the 1970s.

    "The media coverage of the climate change problem is abysmal. " - At some point BBC, NYT and other important media outlets decided that there would no longer be any dispute about global warming and thus only pro global warming stories - sometimes very idiotic - are reported. All kinds of scum scientists in peripheral sciences jumped on the global warming bandwagon realizing that is where the money is. The public is bombarded with nonsense of irrelevant and false stories.

    You are right that there is some integrity left in science as counterclaims are being investigated to some degree and if only their results were reported and popularized we would have more cool heads about the global warming. However my personal experience of people from NOAA, NCAR, NASA and DOE who work on climate and atmospheric science do no make me too hopeful that some meaningful coalition of more reasonable skeptics would emerge from among them. Reasonable skeptics are still purged like Judith Curry. But life for atmospheric science practitioner was never that good as it is now as long as you go with the flow. Acid rain and ozone hole were just a prelude. Now they got drunk on power and prestige. They are like nuclear scientists in 1950s who won WWII and had power to destroy the whole world and thought that nuclear science and energy would answer all questions which led to hubris like nuclear planes. Most people were not aware that nuclear power was just the steam age technology where you would burn uranium instead of coal.

    Replies: @Mikel, @Philip Owen

    I will add my concerns about the probity of the Hadley Centre in the UK. It was set up by Mrs Thatcher (a CAGR believer with the data of the time, as was I) to confirm CAGR. It is colocated with the Meterological Office.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Philip Owen

    The release of their emails was really damaging. There were two, iirc, official inquiries in the UK to whitewash it while in the US there was one so somebody quipped that American whitewash is stronger as application of one layer is enough.

  197. @A123
    @Beckow


    Ukraine never had a chance to be in the EU: they missed the window and by 2014 it was all pretence. The EU cannot afford additional poor members (esp. large ones) and no rich ones are applying
     
    Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey are also on the list for EU expansion.

    In addition to money, there is a structural problem. Under the existing EU deal, every sovereign nation has a veto on matters requiring unanimous consent. The system is already hamstrung at 27 members. It is hard to imagine any expansion under the existing structure.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @showmethereal

    Well there is something I can agree with you on…. It doesn’t make any sense how the EU functions – trampling on each country’s sovereign rights. I think ASEAN is a better model of a bloc. Even Mercosur. In a way I can’t even blame the UK for leaving the EU. Trade and customs is one thing – but dictating individual laws and social structures is another.

  198. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn't run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I'm still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @songbird, @AP

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    AFAIK the database looks at reported ancestry and genetics. So therefore, if in the Middle Ages a Polish man had kids with a Jewish woman and they had numerous descendants, while meanwhile his siblings and cousins collectively had fewer descendants, his particular genetic type would be counted as Ashkenazi Jewish even though in reality it was not, because most people in the database with that fingerprint are Jews.

    [MORE]

    Something similar is probably true of small obscure nationalities that have mixed with larger ones. My wife is 1/8 Kalmyk, one can see her Asian features and stronger ones in her 1/4 Kalmyk father and very strong ones in her 1/2 Kalmyk grandfather (who completely looked like an Asian guy despite having had a blonde blue eyed Russian father). But according to 23andme she is 99.8% European. Probably this is because there are very few Kalmyks in the database but a lot of Russians of partial Kalmyk descent in the database, so Kalmyk genes are counted as Eastern European/Russian.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @AP


    23andme
     
    Your explanation seems plausible considering 23andme is banned or unavailable in Russia. So 23andme might have unusually limited samples from Russia, considering Russia is one of the few countries it is not available.

    The commercial genetic test people use in Russia is the Israel startup "MyHeritage". I don't know if it was more reliable, but I guess it would have samples from Russia.

    -

    "MyHeritage" actually has a strategic partnership with the Mormon's "FamilySearch" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FamilySearch). It even has an office in Salt Lake City. So it's surprising how it is allowed and mainstream in Russia, while they do not allow 23andme for being American.

    Nobody is more paranoid about Mormons than in the Russian government, perhaps with some justification (if Mormon groups are really working for the CIA). But it's perhaps possible they didn't read enough to notice the connection with "FamilySearch".

  199. @Yellowface Anon
    @Showmethereal

    I was actually imagining all, or even much of the country in lockdown. It nearly happened back in the first outbreak.

    They still plan for elimination judging by their eagerness to lock down over a handful of cases. They'll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    “They’ll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity.”

    Well that is absolutely what this is all about… Preparing for potential biowarfare from the west (which probably has already been going on agriculturally – which is why we saw in 2021 – food reserves were boosted as well – and grain production hit an all time high). No question about it.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @showmethereal

    Swine fever being weaponized against the Chinese meat industry is an open secret by now. It decimated hogs and made export barriers forbiddingly high.

    I heard there's a forex shortage up there and serious controls of capital outflows + taxation. Provably they shouldn't seriously damage their tax base by shutting downs the productive economy, instead commandeering and mobilizing it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  200. Just commented on Kazakhstan on Kevin Barrets’s Thread. Seemed more appropriate than here.

    Putin is now surrounded on three sides.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Philip Owen

    Is Kevin Barret really all the only person on this site who's writing on this Kazakhstan mess, other than Andrew Anglin? Karlin really did choose an inaspaucious time to virtually quit blogging to chase the crypto-'currency'-dragon...

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Philip Owen, @LondonBob

  201. What’s going on in Kazakhstan? True popular protests or a color revolution try?

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Aedib

    Government removed price caps on fuel. This resulted in people suddenly having to pay more than twice as much for it so many got angry.

    Replies: @Aedib

  202. @Aedib
    What’s going on in Kazakhstan? True popular protests or a color revolution try?

    Replies: @Shortsword

    Government removed price caps on fuel. This resulted in people suddenly having to pay more than twice as much for it so many got angry.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Shortsword

    It smells like a color revolution try

    https://southfront.org/in-videos-coordinated-chaos-in-qazaqstan/

    Will Russia let it triumph and later go "little green men" in Semipalátinsk?

    More

    https://www.rt.com/russia/545215-kazakhstan-unrest-police-president/

    https://www.rt.com/russia/545217-kazakhstan-tokaev-protests-security/

    Replies: @Shortsword

  203. @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    The alcohol business attracts surprising participants.

    Racing legend Scott Pruett opened his own winery.
    https://www.pruettvineyard.com/

    Top Gear / Grand Tour host James May launched his own brand of gin.
    https://www.ginandtonicly.com/news/james-may-launches-his-own-craft-gin/

     
    https://www.ginandtonicly.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/james-gin-3-1170x600.jpg
     

    PEACE 😇

     


     
    https://www.motorsport-total.com/img/2015/150919/210752_w620_h500.jpg

     
    https://www.cawineclub.com/images/featured_wineries/523_wi_2_650X306_PRUETT__1_.png

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    This is probably the most unbelievable commercial endorsing a cheap wine ever produced, with the blue blooded James Mason (a great actor) endorsing Thunderbird wine. T-bird wine was most notably known as a cheap wine that alcoholic bums (homeless transients) would drink along with other stellar choices such as “Ripple” “Mad Dog”, “Bali Hi” and some others too that now escape me. Our favorite was a sweet Spanish one called “Yago”, but we were teenagers, not English movie stars that undoubtedly had bankrolls that should have merited something all together on a higher plane. “Drink what you like” is taken to a whole new level here:

    “T-Bird wine has an unusual taste, all its own. An exceptional wine good for all occasions. Not quite like anything I’ve ever tasted…it has a delightful flavor…” Indeed. 🙂

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Mr. Hack

    Hey, you don't need to believe me, nor James Mason either. I think that this reviewer pretty much nailed this one right on the nose! He thinks that he's getting ripped off at $3.99 a bottle and feels that $1.99 would be more in line and appropriate. I love his clincher, where he feels that Thunderbird would pair well with a total change in identity and lifestyle, while "jumping on a moving freight train". :-) :-)

    https://youtu.be/tq7EDDm9cJI

  204. @Philip Owen
    @utu

    I will add my concerns about the probity of the Hadley Centre in the UK. It was set up by Mrs Thatcher (a CAGR believer with the data of the time, as was I) to confirm CAGR. It is colocated with the Meterological Office.

    Replies: @utu

    The release of their emails was really damaging. There were two, iirc, official inquiries in the UK to whitewash it while in the US there was one so somebody quipped that American whitewash is stronger as application of one layer is enough.

  205. We could also consult Greco-Roman historians in our search for less harmful superstitions to replace the modern ones in the West.

    I believe that the Romans whose civilization lasted almost uniquely long, used chickens as auguries.

    Why not combine advances in communication with those in farming to give each progressive their own flock, which they could monitor via remote cameras?

  206. @AP
    @Dmitry


    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.
     
    AFAIK the database looks at reported ancestry and genetics. So therefore, if in the Middle Ages a Polish man had kids with a Jewish woman and they had numerous descendants, while meanwhile his siblings and cousins collectively had fewer descendants, his particular genetic type would be counted as Ashkenazi Jewish even though in reality it was not, because most people in the database with that fingerprint are Jews.



    Something similar is probably true of small obscure nationalities that have mixed with larger ones. My wife is 1/8 Kalmyk, one can see her Asian features and stronger ones in her 1/4 Kalmyk father and very strong ones in her 1/2 Kalmyk grandfather (who completely looked like an Asian guy despite having had a blonde blue eyed Russian father). But according to 23andme she is 99.8% European. Probably this is because there are very few Kalmyks in the database but a lot of Russians of partial Kalmyk descent in the database, so Kalmyk genes are counted as Eastern European/Russian.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    23andme

    Your explanation seems plausible considering 23andme is banned or unavailable in Russia. So 23andme might have unusually limited samples from Russia, considering Russia is one of the few countries it is not available.

    The commercial genetic test people use in Russia is the Israel startup “MyHeritage”. I don’t know if it was more reliable, but I guess it would have samples from Russia.

    “MyHeritage” actually has a strategic partnership with the Mormon’s “FamilySearch” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FamilySearch). It even has an office in Salt Lake City. So it’s surprising how it is allowed and mainstream in Russia, while they do not allow 23andme for being American.

    Nobody is more paranoid about Mormons than in the Russian government, perhaps with some justification (if Mormon groups are really working for the CIA). But it’s perhaps possible they didn’t read enough to notice the connection with “FamilySearch”.

  207. @songbird
    @Dmitry


    So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove.
     
    Probably anywhere in the Med would have to have really strict definitions, as there are wide cultural gaps, as well as some ancient gene transfer. Like Taleb is probably somewhat Greek, maybe quite a bit, but sometimes he really acts like an Arab.

    In the case of the Ashkenazim, I suspect that there is some Italian or German ancestry that has been misattributed to them, when really it is the reverse, which makes quite a bit of sense, when one considers that they are a bottleneck population. So, for example, the DNA that they got from some Italian woman, might appear more prototypically Jewish than it is prototypically Italian, because it appears in more Jews than Italians, even though its origin is Italian.

    In the case of Russians, I think Russians are more motley group, who may genuinely more often have trace Jewish DNA, and it is possibly easier to pick out than in Central Europeans, who in part form a root input into the Ashkenazim.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    There are times in modern European history, when Jewish villages had very high fertility rates, at the same moment that a significant proportion of the young villagers are escaping the villages, even changing their name, converting to Christianity and running away from Judaism.

    There were events like unvoluntary conscription of children from the Jewish villages to the army for decades, who then could not return to their villages, or when they return from the army would not be religious enough to be able to marry some rabbi’s daughter in their village.
    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/cantonists

    There are also often Jewish prisoners and settlers being thrown to the Far East and Siberia, where they would almost never be able to marry Jewish women.

    So it’s possible that the commercial genetic tests are catching some of the traces of this very distant ancestry, from that historical outflow of people from Ashkenazi villages. This is aside from the more knowable ancestry people have from the 20th century.

    Of course, it’s also possible that the tests are simply unreliable. Either way, it’s considered meaningless from the viewpoint of the Jewish authorities.

    You need to prove you have Jewish ancestry with the documents and family research. It can cost quite a lot of money. Then you have send these documents to be inspected by their experts, who stamp that they are authentic (as a lot of people are trying with fake documents). ​

    In my family we were able to prove Jewish ancestry for my grandfather. But it was like a history research project. We had all the real documentation, chains of evidence. It’s fortunately not based from some unreliable commercial DNA tests, which seem partly designed for Influencers to post about themselves on Instagram.

    • Thanks: songbird
  208. @Mikhail
    @Dmitry


    Recently my relative has the commercial DNA results, we found significantly higher Jewish ancestry than expected. I have an official, documented Jewish ancestry. But the DNA said significantly higher than we know from documents.

    However, this is surely because Jews have been constantly bleeding into the population. This is the theme of Sholem Aleichem stories. Jews are running away and marrying into the population.

    So my documented Jewish ancestry is from Jews who didn’t run away from their community (which we know from our documents). But my additional undocumented Jewish ancestry points could be just from the background levels in the non-Jewish population.

    But only the documented Jewish ancestry has any value (the other additional DNA is considered meaningless from the Jews themselves). So you still can only really claim to be as Jewish to extent as your family documents can prove. I’m still probably not in a position to claim to be more Jewish.

    We also were shown a lot of Baltic ancestry in that tests. But probably just noise from the way they measure background population, rather than any interesting stories of secretly, undercover Baltic great-grandparents.

     

    Suspect a lot of people believing a Jewish or mostly Jewish background would get similar results. Syrian and other Jews from the Middle East typically look more Syrian than East European Jews. Comparatively speaking, the latter often looking like their non-Jew inhabitants from Eastern Europe.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Middle East typically look more Syrian

    Yes you can see in Israel, the population is a mix of many races, although to be fair to Israel unlike in some claims the majority of people are (Jews and Muslims) immigrants directly from nearby regions of the Middle East, and this is evident in the appearance of the population.

    For genetics of European Jews, there would be surely pre-existing desire to discover their origin as native to the Middle East, as this would both match the secular political state-building, as well as religious narratives.

    So it’s understandable that conspiracy theorists can be questioning about genetic studies of European Jews, when the topic has a politically desired answer. But who knows? I’d like to believe scientists will try to be objective.

    In terms of the Russian DNA, it’s possible these commercial tests are discovering non-slavic ancestry, because the population of Russia which preceded the slavic tribes’ invasion/colonization in Russia.

    This is just my superficial, amateur speculation.

    But slavic tribes immigrated to Russia in the 8th-9th century. But when the slavic population flooded into the territory as described in the chronicles, there were many native tribes in Russia who are perhaps only displaced culturally, rather than genetically.

    These nationalities which existed before the slavic tribes flood into Russia, like the Ves, Chud Zavolochskaya. These became mostly extinct in the cultural sense, but surely not in the genetic one. Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.

    When you look at pre-slavic populations of Russia like Vepsy today, it’s not like we could visually distinguish them from the slavic (or slavicized) population.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry


    Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.
     
    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There's no doubt that there's a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders. :-)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Mikhail

    , @melanf
    @Dmitry


    When you look at pre-slavic populations of Russia like Vepsy today, it’s not like we could visually distinguish them from the slavic (or slavicized) population.
     
    At the level of individual people, it is impossible to know nationality by face. Bashir Assad's family will easily fit into any European nation up to the southern shore of the Baltic Sea, although the Asads are definitely not Europeans

    But slavic tribes immigrated to Russia in the 8th-9th century.
     
    Where native speakers of the Slavic language lived before the 6th century is a riddle of riddles (perhaps somewhere in the territory of European Russia). But in any case, they appeared on the territory of Russia earlier than the 8th century
    , @melanf
    @Dmitry

    If you remove the national costume - an ordinary Northern European face
    https://lenobl.ru/media/cache/21/6e/216eca8e43a15021eb33960751fa4471.png

    https://www.phun.org/celebrities/kirsten_dunst/images/kirsten_dunst_nude_38.jpg

  209. 😁 Open Thread Humor 😂

    Only one item tonight. I need to gather up links for a larger post.

    PEACE 😇

  210. For his New Year television show, Ivan Urgant’s show (it’s like David Letterman show in Russia) produces last couple of years a satire of an Italian 1980s New Year show.

    They study Italian and it sounds like they speak very fluently.

    Then at the end (1:09:40 in the video) they added an Italian speech by Putin as a deepfake. But there you can already see how sinister the deepfake of Putin is, in the difficulty to distinguish it from a real (Italian-speaking) Putin. In theory, Putin never needs to present a real speech for television again. He can just hire the people who made the deepfake for Urgant’s show. Even if a politician dies, they could continue to be present speeches to the media as being alive with such a production.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Mikel
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry

    Wonderful! Something surreal and Felliniesque about it all....

    https://www.villagevoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/2429448.0.jpg

    What next? :-)

    , @Thulean Friend
    @Dmitry

    Skimming the video, I chuckled when I saw the overdone Pepsi placements. People complain about modern YouTubers doing "in video ads" but that feels far more genuine - since it is honest and upfront - than this kind of kitschy product placement. It'd be interesting going back to watch various Swedish gameshows from the same era if they had these kinds of hamfisted product placements with terrible acting or if it was an Italian thing.

    While I know neither Russian nor Italian, the vibe I got was that they were bantering but never in a mean-spirited way. I felt they were praising it while simultaneously making fun of it, if that makes sense. Respectful satire?

    Replies: @Dmitry

  211. @Mikel
    @Yellowface Anon


    you’ll see European levels of dysfunction.
     
    That was a cruel remark. Please be merciful with us when you finally become the world overlords.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Wait, what? Compradors-turned-emigrants becoming the Masters?

    The least thing I’m preparing my descendents to be are Jews.

  212. @showmethereal
    @Yellowface Anon

    "They’ll probably change their mind very late, since they are thinking in terms of biosecurity."

    Well that is absolutely what this is all about... Preparing for potential biowarfare from the west (which probably has already been going on agriculturally - which is why we saw in 2021 - food reserves were boosted as well - and grain production hit an all time high). No question about it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Swine fever being weaponized against the Chinese meat industry is an open secret by now. It decimated hogs and made export barriers forbiddingly high.

    I heard there’s a forex shortage up there and serious controls of capital outflows + taxation. Provably they shouldn’t seriously damage their tax base by shutting downs the productive economy, instead commandeering and mobilizing it.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    I didn't say this clearly to avoid offending some of your mildly Sinophile sensibilities, but wheels are coming off from the total lockdown regime in Xian. Anti-lockdowners need to guess why or see the agony of the residents in Xian, and Sinophobes are free to pick this as another evidence of an argument you're familiar with.

    First off, their original goal was to cut off all social transmissions (that means no transmissions outside of those who have been quarantined centrally, and all contacts and contacts of contacts have been quarantined), by 1/4. It failed but the curve is starting to flatten, which means there's still about 1-2 months to go.

    Before that, lots of things are falling apart:
    - Some people destined for centralized quarantine found out the lack of facilities at the site, which has no running water, electricity and heating, and attempted to return to their homes on feet.
    - For some time only potatoes and broccolis were distributed in some blocks.
    - Some patients weren't attended at all and left outside medical facilities until it was too late.
    - The health code system malfunctioned twice.
    - Like in Wuhan, the usual anti-Chinese prop outlets are alleging a higher lockdown death count than those dead with COVID. Those who allegedly are dead from starvation or exposure were "socially removed", unpersoned.

    All the above are likely real anecdotes except the last point, and there are Weibo evidence substantiating them. Now consider this is only the first 14 days and there's still a long way to go before they start loosening things up.

    The Chinese medical leadership's calculation might be like the Soviets in 1941- there is indeed an enemy, metaphorical in COVID's case, and a large human cost is acceptable as far as the enemy is ultimately destroyed. The Soviet Union lost 20 million in the war, much of them needlessly and avoidable with better strategic planning or without earlier purges. But a mutating virus isn't a country with leaders, generals and troops; Zero COVID is an unattainable goal. Of course, if you believe China has a part in the plans of the WEF, from the initial lab experiments and lockdowns, then more malicious explanations become possible.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  213. @Mr. Hack
    @A123

    This is probably the most unbelievable commercial endorsing a cheap wine ever produced, with the blue blooded James Mason (a great actor) endorsing Thunderbird wine. T-bird wine was most notably known as a cheap wine that alcoholic bums (homeless transients) would drink along with other stellar choices such as "Ripple" "Mad Dog", "Bali Hi" and some others too that now escape me. Our favorite was a sweet Spanish one called "Yago", but we were teenagers, not English movie stars that undoubtedly had bankrolls that should have merited something all together on a higher plane. "Drink what you like" is taken to a whole new level here:

    https://youtu.be/0xY7mBQrzXU

    "T-Bird wine has an unusual taste, all its own. An exceptional wine good for all occasions. Not quite like anything I've ever tasted...it has a delightful flavor..." Indeed. :-)

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Hey, you don’t need to believe me, nor James Mason either. I think that this reviewer pretty much nailed this one right on the nose! He thinks that he’s getting ripped off at \$3.99 a bottle and feels that \$1.99 would be more in line and appropriate. I love his clincher, where he feels that Thunderbird would pair well with a total change in identity and lifestyle, while “jumping on a moving freight train”. 🙂 🙂

    • LOL: A123
  214. @Shortsword
    @Aedib

    Government removed price caps on fuel. This resulted in people suddenly having to pay more than twice as much for it so many got angry.

    Replies: @Aedib

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Aedib

    The usual Russia watchers and "human rights enthusiasts" are jumping on it. That makes it "suspicious" I suppose. But I doubt this started as anything else but a simple angry mob protest (similar to say the recent protests in Chile or Colombia).

    Now there are probably forces that are trying to hijack it all. This would start with trying to present a group of people as leaders who have demands for the government. These people would likely come from some typical fake human rights organisation.

    Here's a funny tweet which makes it look like that's what happening

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1478725986971701248

    I'm sure this is entirely made up though. But that could change.

    Replies: @Aedib

  215. @Dmitry
    For his New Year television show, Ivan Urgant's show (it's like David Letterman show in Russia) produces last couple of years a satire of an Italian 1980s New Year show.

    They study Italian and it sounds like they speak very fluently.

    Then at the end (1:09:40 in the video) they added an Italian speech by Putin as a deepfake. But there you can already see how sinister the deepfake of Putin is, in the difficulty to distinguish it from a real (Italian-speaking) Putin. In theory, Putin never needs to present a real speech for television again. He can just hire the people who made the deepfake for Urgant's show. Even if a politician dies, they could continue to be present speeches to the media as being alive with such a production.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyMgs0DXZrY

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend

    Wonderful! Something surreal and Felliniesque about it all….

    What next? 🙂

  216. ColonelCassad about the color revolution try in Kazakhstan (in Russian)

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7350408.html

  217. @Dmitry
    @Mikhail


    Middle East typically look more Syrian
     
    Yes you can see in Israel, the population is a mix of many races, although to be fair to Israel unlike in some claims the majority of people are (Jews and Muslims) immigrants directly from nearby regions of the Middle East, and this is evident in the appearance of the population.

    For genetics of European Jews, there would be surely pre-existing desire to discover their origin as native to the Middle East, as this would both match the secular political state-building, as well as religious narratives.

    So it's understandable that conspiracy theorists can be questioning about genetic studies of European Jews, when the topic has a politically desired answer. But who knows? I'd like to believe scientists will try to be objective.

    -


    In terms of the Russian DNA, it's possible these commercial tests are discovering non-slavic ancestry, because the population of Russia which preceded the slavic tribes' invasion/colonization in Russia.

    This is just my superficial, amateur speculation.

    But slavic tribes immigrated to Russia in the 8th-9th century. But when the slavic population flooded into the territory as described in the chronicles, there were many native tribes in Russia who are perhaps only displaced culturally, rather than genetically.

    These nationalities which existed before the slavic tribes flood into Russia, like the Ves, Chud Zavolochskaya. These became mostly extinct in the cultural sense, but surely not in the genetic one. Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.

    When you look at pre-slavic populations of Russia like Vepsy today, it's not like we could visually distinguish them from the slavic (or slavicized) population.

    https://lenobl.ru/media/cache/21/6e/216eca8e43a15021eb33960751fa4471.png

    http://администрация-алеховщина.рф/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/24aaf3447d4fdbcc8ae16c6370d8510f.jpg

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @melanf, @melanf

    Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.

    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There’s no doubt that there’s a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders. 🙂

    • Troll: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mr. Hack

    It possibly that descendants of these nationalities discussed in the chronicle of past years, like Chud are showing in these modern commercial DNA as Baltic. So perhaps this is the population before the slavic invasions, which could be descendants of the modern population. It's something possible as a speculation anyway.

    The language category and the genetic category is not necessarily overlapping in every case.

    We just don't have reliable source. The chronicle of past years is a very mentally simple text, like something which would be written by modern 12 year old children or younger.

    While the pagan population before the slavic tribes immigrated to Russia, were not writing, and so you can't read anything.


    how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations.
     
    It's more question of terminology or semantics probably.
    , @Mikhail
    @Mr. Hack


    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There’s no doubt that there’s a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders.
     
    The aforementioned Finno-Ugric trait is large by what measurement? Like there's no non-Slav DNA among numerous Ukrainians.

    DNA tests have given varied results on the same individual, in addition to entire populations not participating in them on the same scale as censuses. The point I made concerning Jews and DNA testing isn't faulty.
  218. @German_reader
    @Mr. Hack


    Perhaps, I should be aware of something first before shopping there?
     
    I don't think you need to worry more than about any other supermarket chain, generally the quality of their products should be fine, it's just that it's got a certain low-class image in Germany, because their prices are low and the assortment of wares is somewhat limited (also they sell a lot of cheaper ALDI knock-offs instead of more expensive brand articles).
    Of course the usual caveats apply, if you want quality meat, you're probably better off to some butcher's shop.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @songbird, @RadicalCenter

    We shop at Aldi in both California and New Jersey and are quite satisfied. Ganz zufrieden.

    I have German heritage and used to speak some German. But like many white Americans, Germans are a pathetic, easily frightened, aging, dying people making systematically stupid decisions about immigration, energy, and culture and failing even to reproduce while lecturing the rest of us. Globalist Germans also manage to be both arrogant Besserwisser (know-it-alls) / bullies and self-hating at the same time — impressive. We have been socializing with German immigrants to the US for the better part of a decade here in SoCal and wow, half of them are willfully obtuse and confident in their suicidal naivete, counterfactual assertions, and enthusiasm for proven-disastrous prescriptions.

    Who gives a damn what Germans think? As the old joke about “modern” Western “liberals” goes, they wouldn’t take their own side in a fight. They’re not going to be around for long.

  219. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You are certainly correct that the American farming system would be difficult to turn around. It took decades of concerted effort to get to where it is and would require concerted effort to turn round.

    As I mentioned earlier, the centralizing push was concerted since the early 70's and "Get big or get out!" Ag secretary Earl Butz. This has resulted in food producers who are inflexible, completely dependent on the banks and government, and trapped in a cycle of increasing their scale of production to desperately reach some level of security which never appears.

    This has absolutely destroyed the traditional rural backbone of America. 20 small farms make a town. 1 mega farm does not. The anti-social aspects of industry and agriculture consolidation are hard to overestimate and have done much to hollow out conservative America. Besides, I can tell you that farm kids are not going to be too susceptible to trans messaging and other liberal madness. Conservatism is rightfully based in reality, which must involve a connection to the natural world. The collapse of rural life and the rise in adoption of liberalism by the masses hardly seems unrelated. We have a world increasingly unmoored from any reality.

    I actually dispute the idea that industrial farming techniques are always more efficient than more traditional ones. It often depends on one's metric of "efficiency". For example, industrial meat production is a very grain heavy process, where corn and soy (grown on prime rich soil) get fed to animals in managed containment conditions.

    In the shift to industrial agriculture a corner of the country like mine has become abandoned. We don't have much of the rich soil to grow corn or soy. What we can grow well is grass, and indeed the area was rich with independent sheep farmers and dairies until the post-WW2 shift.

    Cows and sheep have been blessed with rumens, those miraculous stomachs capable of turning grass and other roughage, which has no food use to humans at all, into meat and milk. However, in our constant quest for "mechanized efficiency" we would rather use our best land to feed animals and let our land suited for animals lie fallow.

    You are correct that the middle men are a massive amount of the issue. The dairy farmers that I know are virtual slaves to the milk coops who can dictate terms since a virtual monopoly exists.

    The dairy of the past could market directly to it's community, banking on the evident quality of the product. Some farms would advertise that they kept Jersey or Guernsey cows for thick rich cream which the customer could clearly see. Modern milk is a commodity, one which the farmer has no ability to sell independently or set the price on. The middle men ought to be minimized.

    I agree with your point that food price hikes are hardest on the poor. There are a number of different ways to approach this. However, I don't think there are as many poor as poor in spirit in this country. When I see families (term used loosely) with four wheelers, nicer cars than me, the newest smartphones with data plans etc., yet receiving food stamps, HEAP etc. I suspect that our metric of poor has become skewed. I don't think it would hurt a lot of those folks to pay more for better food which supports a local community member. People could also garden more, especially poor people. A substantial amount of vegetable production used to happen in backyards, which is healthy and pro-social.

    Food as a percentage of total budget is as low as it's ever been in human history, which is not sustainable when the farmers can't make a living.

    My guess on where this is heading is that as the older farmer age out, which is rapidly happening, the younger generation will be unwilling or unable to make a smart of it. Increasingly larger scale agricultural land ownership and management will consolidate American agriculture ownership in a smaller and smaller pool of mega owners, such as Bill Gates is doing with his 242,000 acres ag holdings.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    Perhaps we should limit the amount of agricultural land that can be owned by any one person (or married couple).

    We need to outright PROHIBIT corporations and non-citizens from owning agricultural land or residential rental property in our country.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  220. @Dmitry
    For his New Year television show, Ivan Urgant's show (it's like David Letterman show in Russia) produces last couple of years a satire of an Italian 1980s New Year show.

    They study Italian and it sounds like they speak very fluently.

    Then at the end (1:09:40 in the video) they added an Italian speech by Putin as a deepfake. But there you can already see how sinister the deepfake of Putin is, in the difficulty to distinguish it from a real (Italian-speaking) Putin. In theory, Putin never needs to present a real speech for television again. He can just hire the people who made the deepfake for Urgant's show. Even if a politician dies, they could continue to be present speeches to the media as being alive with such a production.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyMgs0DXZrY

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @Thulean Friend

    Skimming the video, I chuckled when I saw the overdone Pepsi placements. People complain about modern YouTubers doing “in video ads” but that feels far more genuine – since it is honest and upfront – than this kind of kitschy product placement. It’d be interesting going back to watch various Swedish gameshows from the same era if they had these kinds of hamfisted product placements with terrible acting or if it was an Italian thing.

    While I know neither Russian nor Italian, the vibe I got was that they were bantering but never in a mean-spirited way. I felt they were praising it while simultaneously making fun of it, if that makes sense. Respectful satire?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    Respectful satire

     

    Yes they really know Italian language, and have according to Italian audiences a very strong understanding of Italian culture, the 1980s culture.

    Italians watching have reported they are shock that the Russian celebrities know so much Italian culture. It's not that funny, but I don't think David Letterman transform himself into an Italian man.

    Ivan Urgant speaks Italian so fluently and fast. But a large proportion of Russian celebrities, have houses in Italy.

    Urgant has a house in Italy and the celebrities are referencing sometimes in the show that they "remember when I saw you in Italy". So maybe from their perspective of being often in Italy for vacations, it's not that special to learn to speak Italian, watch some Italian television, copy some of the Italian body language.

  221. @Aedib
    @Shortsword

    It smells like a color revolution try

    https://southfront.org/in-videos-coordinated-chaos-in-qazaqstan/

    Will Russia let it triumph and later go "little green men" in Semipalátinsk?

    More

    https://www.rt.com/russia/545215-kazakhstan-unrest-police-president/

    https://www.rt.com/russia/545217-kazakhstan-tokaev-protests-security/

    Replies: @Shortsword

    The usual Russia watchers and “human rights enthusiasts” are jumping on it. That makes it “suspicious” I suppose. But I doubt this started as anything else but a simple angry mob protest (similar to say the recent protests in Chile or Colombia).

    Now there are probably forces that are trying to hijack it all. This would start with trying to present a group of people as leaders who have demands for the government. These people would likely come from some typical fake human rights organisation.

    Here’s a funny tweet which makes it look like that’s what happening

    I’m sure this is entirely made up though. But that could change.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Shortsword

    It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices. But that’s already gone. The Kazakh government backtracked on these hikes and the protests grew up. I think the protests are already hijacked by the usual suspects. Anyway, the Kazakh government just has to follow Batka’s example on how to drown the color revolution. If Tokayev goes by the Yanukovitch’ path, that’s his fault.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

  222. Kazakh protestor is interviewed: “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.

    There is also a demand list floating about. It asks for a range of socio-economic measures. These demands should be seen in context:

    Kazakhstan basically never recovered after the 2014 oil crash, yet their population’s expectations didn’t adjust to the new reality.

    It is of course possible – maybe even probable – that there is foreign meddling involved, but you can’t get this kind of anger to explode without significant grievances simmering in the background.

    We can say for certain that major cities are seeing unrest, dozens are dead and massive property damage is ongoing. That doesn’t strike me as a surefire way to get to prosperity.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    Considering similar aspects of the situation in the postsoviet space, it's probably even predictable to generalize, without knowing too many local details.

    Most of all postsoviet countries have the similar political elite which is untrammeled in corruption, with very low bargaining power of ordinary citizens.

    When for Kazakhstan the oil price is high, there should be enough breadcrumbs from the table to maintain sufficient to manage the public, but when the commodity cycle turns down then even some of world's most "cucked" populations to their elite (e.g. postsoviet populations) can sometimes begin to seem more difficult to managed.

    The authorities in the postsoviet space need to develop more strategies or political technologies to manage the population during a down turn in the commodity cycle, and some countries are cleverer in political technology to manage their public than other countries.

    Kazakhstan's government is promoting a lot of anti-Russian agitation and jingoism. But their popular protests in recent years are going more against China. Perhaps popular protests there is more anti-Chinese, even while their official media tries to promote more anti-Russian views

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Aedib

    , @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.
     
    Lol. This sort of retarded populist monkey logic is how useful idiots, incompetents and traitors like Saakashvili, Perón and Pashinyan get elected.

    NOTHING good will come of this, Central Asia only needs one big spark for that whole region to go off.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @silviosilver, @Dmitry

  223. @Shortsword
    @Aedib

    The usual Russia watchers and "human rights enthusiasts" are jumping on it. That makes it "suspicious" I suppose. But I doubt this started as anything else but a simple angry mob protest (similar to say the recent protests in Chile or Colombia).

    Now there are probably forces that are trying to hijack it all. This would start with trying to present a group of people as leaders who have demands for the government. These people would likely come from some typical fake human rights organisation.

    Here's a funny tweet which makes it look like that's what happening

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1478725986971701248

    I'm sure this is entirely made up though. But that could change.

    Replies: @Aedib

    It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices. But that’s already gone. The Kazakh government backtracked on these hikes and the protests grew up. I think the protests are already hijacked by the usual suspects. Anyway, the Kazakh government just has to follow Batka’s example on how to drown the color revolution. If Tokayev goes by the Yanukovitch’ path, that’s his fault.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Aedib


    ...It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices.
     
    Sure, most events are spontaneous. Oswald also took a spontaneous walk all those decades ago, too bad he was spontaneously shot. It happens, life is full of spontaneity.

    Opening a new front suggests that the West is either superbly confident or trapped. I don't see much confidence in the Western behaviour: they have been talking way too much about paperwork, both the irrelevant and the missing types. A year ago they planned a 'regime change' and thought they had the Belarus in the bag. They even flew in the pretender and pre-announced mass demos.

    They moved on to how the "German elections" will fix it, finally a kibosh: no pipes, no way to pay, Wehrmacht in Smolensk. Instead they got a British lesbo polishing metal on the Estonian border and Nato forward forces trapped in no-man's land.

    So on to Almaty...this will go well, excited talkers confronting un-moveable objects. Maybe they will put some nasty graffiti all over and go home to collect a few more 'human-rights' awards.

    , @AP
    @Aedib

    It isn't completely up to the the government, the people make a difference. What worked with Belarussians wouldn't have worked in Ukraine and may or may not work in Kazakhstan. Less docile Kazakhs have already grabbed some arms depots, shot some soldiers, and taken over a bunch of buildings, so already this is a more serious event that what happened with docile Belarussians.

    Neither you nor I know if this is a popular revolution or not, or how popular it may be. But your idea that a so-called "color revolution" can not also be a popular revolt is mistaken (you write as if the two are somehow mutually exclusive).

    Will Russia answer Kazakhstan's president's call for help? What will be the impact on attitudes towards Russia by Kazakhs if they get killed by Russian soldiers? If the revolt is more anti-Chinese than anti-Russian as Dmitri says, then it will become anti-Russian if Russia comes to kill Kazakhs in order to keep the hated government in power (if it is indeed, hated by most of its people). How many Russian troops will have to be kept there in order to keep the allied government in power?

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Aedib

  224. @Aedib
    @Shortsword

    It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices. But that’s already gone. The Kazakh government backtracked on these hikes and the protests grew up. I think the protests are already hijacked by the usual suspects. Anyway, the Kazakh government just has to follow Batka’s example on how to drown the color revolution. If Tokayev goes by the Yanukovitch’ path, that’s his fault.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

    …It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices.

    Sure, most events are spontaneous. Oswald also took a spontaneous walk all those decades ago, too bad he was spontaneously shot. It happens, life is full of spontaneity.

    Opening a new front suggests that the West is either superbly confident or trapped. I don’t see much confidence in the Western behaviour: they have been talking way too much about paperwork, both the irrelevant and the missing types. A year ago they planned a ‘regime change‘ and thought they had the Belarus in the bag. They even flew in the pretender and pre-announced mass demos.

    They moved on to how the “German elections” will fix it, finally a kibosh: no pipes, no way to pay, Wehrmacht in Smolensk. Instead they got a British lesbo polishing metal on the Estonian border and Nato forward forces trapped in no-man’s land.

    So on to Almaty…this will go well, excited talkers confronting un-moveable objects. Maybe they will put some nasty graffiti all over and go home to collect a few more ‘human-rights‘ awards.

  225. @Thulean Friend
    Kazakh protestor is interviewed: "We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway".

    There is also a demand list floating about. It asks for a range of socio-economic measures. These demands should be seen in context:

    https://i.imgur.com/YwBVDVK.jpg

    Kazakhstan basically never recovered after the 2014 oil crash, yet their population's expectations didn't adjust to the new reality.

    It is of course possible - maybe even probable - that there is foreign meddling involved, but you can't get this kind of anger to explode without significant grievances simmering in the background.

    We can say for certain that major cities are seeing unrest, dozens are dead and massive property damage is ongoing. That doesn't strike me as a surefire way to get to prosperity.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Yevardian

    Considering similar aspects of the situation in the postsoviet space, it’s probably even predictable to generalize, without knowing too many local details.

    Most of all postsoviet countries have the similar political elite which is untrammeled in corruption, with very low bargaining power of ordinary citizens.

    When for Kazakhstan the oil price is high, there should be enough breadcrumbs from the table to maintain sufficient to manage the public, but when the commodity cycle turns down then even some of world’s most “cucked” populations to their elite (e.g. postsoviet populations) can sometimes begin to seem more difficult to managed.

    The authorities in the postsoviet space need to develop more strategies or political technologies to manage the population during a down turn in the commodity cycle, and some countries are cleverer in political technology to manage their public than other countries.

    Kazakhstan’s government is promoting a lot of anti-Russian agitation and jingoism. But their popular protests in recent years are going more against China. Perhaps popular protests there is more anti-Chinese, even while their official media tries to promote more anti-Russian views

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    If Kazakhstan falls to the color revolutionaries, Russia is surrounded on all sides! The Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Japan, and Canada across the Arctic. Even worse, China is now surrounded too: the 1st Island Chain, Vietnam, India, and Kazakhstan. Mongolia could even be used as a wedge between the 2 powers - Inner Mongolian secessionism is going to see a resurgence.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Aedib
    @Dmitry

    No. Just look at this.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1478725986971701248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478725986971701248%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unz.com%2Fakarlin%2Fopen-thread-172%2F

    Franak Viakorka, Bill Browder and the rest of this gang is now full steam with anti-Russian agitprop. I miss Jihadi Julian. LOL.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dmitry

  226. @Thulean Friend
    @Dmitry

    Skimming the video, I chuckled when I saw the overdone Pepsi placements. People complain about modern YouTubers doing "in video ads" but that feels far more genuine - since it is honest and upfront - than this kind of kitschy product placement. It'd be interesting going back to watch various Swedish gameshows from the same era if they had these kinds of hamfisted product placements with terrible acting or if it was an Italian thing.

    While I know neither Russian nor Italian, the vibe I got was that they were bantering but never in a mean-spirited way. I felt they were praising it while simultaneously making fun of it, if that makes sense. Respectful satire?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Respectful satire

    Yes they really know Italian language, and have according to Italian audiences a very strong understanding of Italian culture, the 1980s culture.

    Italians watching have reported they are shock that the Russian celebrities know so much Italian culture. It’s not that funny, but I don’t think David Letterman transform himself into an Italian man.

    Ivan Urgant speaks Italian so fluently and fast. But a large proportion of Russian celebrities, have houses in Italy.

    Urgant has a house in Italy and the celebrities are referencing sometimes in the show that they “remember when I saw you in Italy”. So maybe from their perspective of being often in Italy for vacations, it’s not that special to learn to speak Italian, watch some Italian television, copy some of the Italian body language.

  227. @Yellowface Anon
    @showmethereal

    Swine fever being weaponized against the Chinese meat industry is an open secret by now. It decimated hogs and made export barriers forbiddingly high.

    I heard there's a forex shortage up there and serious controls of capital outflows + taxation. Provably they shouldn't seriously damage their tax base by shutting downs the productive economy, instead commandeering and mobilizing it.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I didn’t say this clearly to avoid offending some of your mildly Sinophile sensibilities, but wheels are coming off from the total lockdown regime in Xian. Anti-lockdowners need to guess why or see the agony of the residents in Xian, and Sinophobes are free to pick this as another evidence of an argument you’re familiar with.

    First off, their original goal was to cut off all social transmissions (that means no transmissions outside of those who have been quarantined centrally, and all contacts and contacts of contacts have been quarantined), by 1/4. It failed but the curve is starting to flatten, which means there’s still about 1-2 months to go.

    Before that, lots of things are falling apart:
    – Some people destined for centralized quarantine found out the lack of facilities at the site, which has no running water, electricity and heating, and attempted to return to their homes on feet.
    – For some time only potatoes and broccolis were distributed in some blocks.
    – Some patients weren’t attended at all and left outside medical facilities until it was too late.
    – The health code system malfunctioned twice.
    – Like in Wuhan, the usual anti-Chinese prop outlets are alleging a higher lockdown death count than those dead with COVID. Those who allegedly are dead from starvation or exposure were “socially removed”, unpersoned.

    All the above are likely real anecdotes except the last point, and there are Weibo evidence substantiating them. Now consider this is only the first 14 days and there’s still a long way to go before they start loosening things up.

    The Chinese medical leadership’s calculation might be like the Soviets in 1941- there is indeed an enemy, metaphorical in COVID’s case, and a large human cost is acceptable as far as the enemy is ultimately destroyed. The Soviet Union lost 20 million in the war, much of them needlessly and avoidable with better strategic planning or without earlier purges. But a mutating virus isn’t a country with leaders, generals and troops; Zero COVID is an unattainable goal. Of course, if you believe China has a part in the plans of the WEF, from the initial lab experiments and lockdowns, then more malicious explanations become possible.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    More nuanced perspective:
    https://twitter.com/Chri5tianGoebel/status/1478412075005362176

  228. @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    Considering similar aspects of the situation in the postsoviet space, it's probably even predictable to generalize, without knowing too many local details.

    Most of all postsoviet countries have the similar political elite which is untrammeled in corruption, with very low bargaining power of ordinary citizens.

    When for Kazakhstan the oil price is high, there should be enough breadcrumbs from the table to maintain sufficient to manage the public, but when the commodity cycle turns down then even some of world's most "cucked" populations to their elite (e.g. postsoviet populations) can sometimes begin to seem more difficult to managed.

    The authorities in the postsoviet space need to develop more strategies or political technologies to manage the population during a down turn in the commodity cycle, and some countries are cleverer in political technology to manage their public than other countries.

    Kazakhstan's government is promoting a lot of anti-Russian agitation and jingoism. But their popular protests in recent years are going more against China. Perhaps popular protests there is more anti-Chinese, even while their official media tries to promote more anti-Russian views

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Aedib

    If Kazakhstan falls to the color revolutionaries, Russia is surrounded on all sides! The Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Japan, and Canada across the Arctic. Even worse, China is now surrounded too: the 1st Island Chain, Vietnam, India, and Kazakhstan. Mongolia could even be used as a wedge between the 2 powers – Inner Mongolian secessionism is going to see a resurgence.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yellowface Anon

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia. But for the government in Kazakhstan it has been convenient to try to promote anti-Russian anger for their masses

    Kazakhstan's situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan's government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.

    Of course, the public in Kazakhstan has a good reason to be angry with their own authorities, considering it is seems typical of a postsoviet country, i.e. turned into a machine for harnessing money for their narrow elite.

    But this is different topic from its implications for other countries. In my opinion, the most serious aspect of Kazakhstan in Russia, because the opiates flood across the border from there, into some of the most important cities, and this has been like the fuel that feeds an HIV epidemic in these cities.

    Replies: @A123, @Shortsword

  229. @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry


    Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.
     
    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There's no doubt that there's a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders. :-)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Mikhail

    It possibly that descendants of these nationalities discussed in the chronicle of past years, like Chud are showing in these modern commercial DNA as Baltic. So perhaps this is the population before the slavic invasions, which could be descendants of the modern population. It’s something possible as a speculation anyway.

    The language category and the genetic category is not necessarily overlapping in every case.

    We just don’t have reliable source. The chronicle of past years is a very mentally simple text, like something which would be written by modern 12 year old children or younger.

    While the pagan population before the slavic tribes immigrated to Russia, were not writing, and so you can’t read anything.

    how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations.

    It’s more question of terminology or semantics probably.

  230. @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    If Kazakhstan falls to the color revolutionaries, Russia is surrounded on all sides! The Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Japan, and Canada across the Arctic. Even worse, China is now surrounded too: the 1st Island Chain, Vietnam, India, and Kazakhstan. Mongolia could even be used as a wedge between the 2 powers - Inner Mongolian secessionism is going to see a resurgence.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia. But for the government in Kazakhstan it has been convenient to try to promote anti-Russian anger for their masses

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.

    Of course, the public in Kazakhstan has a good reason to be angry with their own authorities, considering it is seems typical of a postsoviet country, i.e. turned into a machine for harnessing money for their narrow elite.

    But this is different topic from its implications for other countries. In my opinion, the most serious aspect of Kazakhstan in Russia, because the opiates flood across the border from there, into some of the most important cities, and this has been like the fuel that feeds an HIV epidemic in these cities.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China
     
    The CCP's allegiance to Iran carries with it implications about Shia Islam and Persian ethnicity. Kazakhstan is primarily Sunni and definitely not Persian ethnic.

    Iran is a strategic competitor with Iran for Caspian Sea resources.

    Why would the people of Kazakhstan want ties to Shia & CCP regimes?
    ___

    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/5d/8d/07/5d8d07f73be6a701b886c6ec3def6c7f.jpg

    Replies: @sudden death

    , @Shortsword
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia.
     
    I don't think there is much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan. From any poll I've seen Russia is seen positively in Kazakhstan. But this could change. If people are continually told that Russia is at fault for Kazakhstan not being powerful/prosperous enough this will eventually change many people's opinions. For example, the Kazakh famine could be weaponized for this purpose similar to how the Ukrainian famine is.

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.
     
    I'm not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it's not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @A123

  231. @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend

    Considering similar aspects of the situation in the postsoviet space, it's probably even predictable to generalize, without knowing too many local details.

    Most of all postsoviet countries have the similar political elite which is untrammeled in corruption, with very low bargaining power of ordinary citizens.

    When for Kazakhstan the oil price is high, there should be enough breadcrumbs from the table to maintain sufficient to manage the public, but when the commodity cycle turns down then even some of world's most "cucked" populations to their elite (e.g. postsoviet populations) can sometimes begin to seem more difficult to managed.

    The authorities in the postsoviet space need to develop more strategies or political technologies to manage the population during a down turn in the commodity cycle, and some countries are cleverer in political technology to manage their public than other countries.

    Kazakhstan's government is promoting a lot of anti-Russian agitation and jingoism. But their popular protests in recent years are going more against China. Perhaps popular protests there is more anti-Chinese, even while their official media tries to promote more anti-Russian views

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Aedib

    No. Just look at this.

    Franak Viakorka, Bill Browder and the rest of this gang is now full steam with anti-Russian agitprop. I miss Jihadi Julian. LOL.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @Aedib

    Jihadi Julian started to rant

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1478784637514174464

    LOL

    , @Dmitry
    @Aedib

    The Kazakh government encourages rusophobia as part of a nationalist program (https://regnum.ru/news/3354590.html) or derussianization.

    However, the Kazakh elite is very invested in Russia and dependent on Russia. It's quite analogous to the situation with Azerbaijan in relation to Russia.


    No. Just look at this.

     

    There are constant anti-Chinese protests in their Kazakhstan as the government concedes with China.

    In terms of anti-Russian actions, this anti-Russian sentiment is a program of the Kazakhstan government. Their project is to encourage Russian emigration and build a mono-ethnic state. ( https://www.politnavigator.net/zachem-tokaev-falsificiruet-istoriyu-i-razduvaet-rusofobskie-nastroeniya-v-kazakhstane.html )

    So if the anti-government and pro-government are not disagreeing on these topics. But as always in postsoviet space, the nationalism is a good distraction from the real problems of the country of corruption, inequality, asset stripping by the political class.
  232. @Aedib
    @Dmitry

    No. Just look at this.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1478725986971701248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478725986971701248%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unz.com%2Fakarlin%2Fopen-thread-172%2F

    Franak Viakorka, Bill Browder and the rest of this gang is now full steam with anti-Russian agitprop. I miss Jihadi Julian. LOL.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dmitry

    Jihadi Julian started to rant

    LOL

  233. @Dmitry
    @Yellowface Anon

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia. But for the government in Kazakhstan it has been convenient to try to promote anti-Russian anger for their masses

    Kazakhstan's situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan's government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.

    Of course, the public in Kazakhstan has a good reason to be angry with their own authorities, considering it is seems typical of a postsoviet country, i.e. turned into a machine for harnessing money for their narrow elite.

    But this is different topic from its implications for other countries. In my opinion, the most serious aspect of Kazakhstan in Russia, because the opiates flood across the border from there, into some of the most important cities, and this has been like the fuel that feeds an HIV epidemic in these cities.

    Replies: @A123, @Shortsword

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China

    The CCP’s allegiance to Iran carries with it implications about Shia Islam and Persian ethnicity. Kazakhstan is primarily Sunni and definitely not Persian ethnic.

    Iran is a strategic competitor with Iran for Caspian Sea resources.

    Why would the people of Kazakhstan want ties to Shia & CCP regimes?
    ___

    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123


    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.
     

    Meanwhile in RF many, including AK, are drooling uncontrollably now at the mere thought of grabing land of Northern Kazakstan during current chaos where majority of those 20% Russians are living, just the timing may be little inconvenient for Putin in practice when he is quite preoccupied with military puffing&huffing games at the Ukraine border.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @sudden death

  234. @Mr. Hack
    @Dmitry


    Perhaps this is one reason for the confusion of commercial genetic tests are saying many Russian people are not having slavic ancestry.
     
    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There's no doubt that there's a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders. :-)

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Mikhail

    Averko is sliding here. He usually jumps on the opportunity to try and put genetic testing to rest, doubting its ability to accurately reflect ethnic lineages. He always falls flat on his face trying though. There’s no doubt that there’s a large Finnic sub-stratum within the make-up of the Russian nation. Just how large? I think that this question is fraught with political motivations. More analysis should be done, perhaps by outsiders.

    The aforementioned Finno-Ugric trait is large by what measurement? Like there’s no non-Slav DNA among numerous Ukrainians.

    DNA tests have given varied results on the same individual, in addition to entire populations not participating in them on the same scale as censuses. The point I made concerning Jews and DNA testing isn’t faulty.

  235. My theory is that there is an algorithm in Youtube that, regardless of politics, promotes more feminine or gay-sounding men, like Linus Tech Tips, and shadow bans more masculine men, with squarer jaws and deeper voices, unless they are confirmed to be pozzed or black, or unless a lot of gays enjoy watching them.

  236. IMO, one of the biggest signs of decadence in the East is anime about playing video games. Even the Chinese seem to be making them, or did, before the crackdown. Japan may be a worse case in some manner, since they have accepted video games as being a leg of their national identity.

  237. Dumb National Interest Article

    Re: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/moldova-illustrates-putins-plan-eastern-europe-198982

    Excerpt –

    One of the Putin regime’s favorite tricks is to support pro-Russian political parties while simultaneously doing everything possible to undermine the credibility of pro-Western parties and politicians. In some instances, Russian money has gone simultaneously to both pro-Russian and extreme nationalist parties. This would seem to be a self-contradicting strategy.

    Russia has a long history of interfering in Moldovan politics. Soon after Moldova split from the Soviet Union, Russia fomented a separatist movement in that country’s Transdniestria region, which is in the northeast along the border with Ukraine. The local government invited in Russian troops who have been there for more than two decades.

    At the above linked excerpt, the first two hyperlinks provide little, if any substantive support to what the author says.

    The Moldavian SSR was created when Soviet forces took much of that territory away from Romania in 1939. Prior to WW I, that land was part of the Russian Empire.

    “Transdniestria” (Pridnestrovie) was already part of the Soviet Union before 1939, as an “autonomous” part of Ukraine. When the Moldavian SSR was created, Pridnestrovie was undemocratically put into it.

    Upon the Soviet breakup, nationalist and pan-Romanian elements in Moldova prompted a backlash from the population in Pridnestrovie, which has a mostly pro-Russian outlook. The Russian troop presence in Pridnestrovie has arguably limited the severity of the short war which existed there.

    The above linked article is another example of a US establishment politico, downplaying the fact that not every former USSR dispute is primarily the fault of Russia. When Russia behaves like what’s described below, it’s called meddling:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/united-states-dodik-sanctions-expanded/31640889.html

  238. A neocon weenie gets roasted:

    • Replies: @Mikel
    @Mikhail

    I haven't been following Ukrainian politics much lately but Poroshenko being sought for arrest under the accusation of treason sounds like the Maidan revolution entering a Thermidor phase of sorts. Last time I checked he was the leader of the second party in Ukraine and in the elections he had represented a more revolutionary alternative to Zelensky, even accusing him of being a Putin stooge. I wonder if Poroshenko's former friends in the EU will have anything to say this time. It's not just pro-Russians and communists being prosecuted now.

    Replies: @Mikhail

  239. @Aedib
    @Dmitry

    No. Just look at this.

    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1478725986971701248?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1478725986971701248%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unz.com%2Fakarlin%2Fopen-thread-172%2F

    Franak Viakorka, Bill Browder and the rest of this gang is now full steam with anti-Russian agitprop. I miss Jihadi Julian. LOL.

    Replies: @Aedib, @Dmitry

    The Kazakh government encourages rusophobia as part of a nationalist program (https://regnum.ru/news/3354590.html) or derussianization.

    However, the Kazakh elite is very invested in Russia and dependent on Russia. It’s quite analogous to the situation with Azerbaijan in relation to Russia.

    No. Just look at this.

    There are constant anti-Chinese protests in their Kazakhstan as the government concedes with China.

    In terms of anti-Russian actions, this anti-Russian sentiment is a program of the Kazakhstan government. Their project is to encourage Russian emigration and build a mono-ethnic state. ( https://www.politnavigator.net/zachem-tokaev-falsificiruet-istoriyu-i-razduvaet-rusofobskie-nastroeniya-v-kazakhstane.html )

    So if the anti-government and pro-government are not disagreeing on these topics. But as always in postsoviet space, the nationalism is a good distraction from the real problems of the country of corruption, inequality, asset stripping by the political class.

  240. @A123
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China
     
    The CCP's allegiance to Iran carries with it implications about Shia Islam and Persian ethnicity. Kazakhstan is primarily Sunni and definitely not Persian ethnic.

    Iran is a strategic competitor with Iran for Caspian Sea resources.

    Why would the people of Kazakhstan want ties to Shia & CCP regimes?
    ___

    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/5d/8d/07/5d8d07f73be6a701b886c6ec3def6c7f.jpg

    Replies: @sudden death

    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.

    Meanwhile in RF many, including AK, are drooling uncontrollably now at the mere thought of grabing land of Northern Kazakstan during current chaos where majority of those 20% Russians are living, just the timing may be little inconvenient for Putin in practice when he is quite preoccupied with military puffing&huffing games at the Ukraine border.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @sudden death

    The railroad to China passes through Nothern Kazakhstan where the Russian settlers live.

    , @sudden death
    @sudden death

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/holmogorow/chto-nam-delat-s-kazahstanom-i-chego-delat-ne-sleduet-61d5a521e27786705a5e2a96

    Replies: @sudden death

  241. Roko is saying he would like custodianship of Elizabeth Holmes.

    She is way too creepy, IMO.

    • Agree: sher singh
  242. @sudden death
    @A123


    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.
     

    Meanwhile in RF many, including AK, are drooling uncontrollably now at the mere thought of grabing land of Northern Kazakstan during current chaos where majority of those 20% Russians are living, just the timing may be little inconvenient for Putin in practice when he is quite preoccupied with military puffing&huffing games at the Ukraine border.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @sudden death

    The railroad to China passes through Nothern Kazakhstan where the Russian settlers live.

  243. @sudden death
    @A123


    There is no comparable reason to worry about Putin. Russia has little interest in Kazakhstan territory. While also on the Caspian Sea, they have more interesting opportunities in the Pacific Ocean, Black Sea, and the Baltic Sea.

    Russian ethnicity is ~20% of the Kazakhstan population. Kazakh standard rail is the same 1.5m gauge that exists in Russia. This allows for easy North-South flow of goods, especially with the population centers across the Northern border. Shared commerce and family connections are helpful in maintaining good relations.
     

    Meanwhile in RF many, including AK, are drooling uncontrollably now at the mere thought of grabing land of Northern Kazakstan during current chaos where majority of those 20% Russians are living, just the timing may be little inconvenient for Putin in practice when he is quite preoccupied with military puffing&huffing games at the Ukraine border.

    Replies: @Philip Owen, @sudden death

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @sudden death

    Possible look of landgrab in KZ:


    https://avatars.mds.yandex.net/get-zen_doc/1721884/pub_61d5a521e27786705a5e2a96_61d5b3384fc4cd232de7e89c/scale_1200

  244. Now that Tony Blair has been finally knighted, the Queen should send him into the interior of Africa, to help establish Harry’s mineral kingdom.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    Tony Blair pocketed 3.6 m GBP a year for advised Nursultan, former President of Kazakhstan. Isn't that interesting?

    Replies: @Dmitry

  245. @sudden death
    @sudden death

    https://zen.yandex.ru/media/holmogorow/chto-nam-delat-s-kazahstanom-i-chego-delat-ne-sleduet-61d5a521e27786705a5e2a96

    Replies: @sudden death

  246. @Dmitry
    @Yellowface Anon

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia. But for the government in Kazakhstan it has been convenient to try to promote anti-Russian anger for their masses

    Kazakhstan's situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan's government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.

    Of course, the public in Kazakhstan has a good reason to be angry with their own authorities, considering it is seems typical of a postsoviet country, i.e. turned into a machine for harnessing money for their narrow elite.

    But this is different topic from its implications for other countries. In my opinion, the most serious aspect of Kazakhstan in Russia, because the opiates flood across the border from there, into some of the most important cities, and this has been like the fuel that feeds an HIV epidemic in these cities.

    Replies: @A123, @Shortsword

    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia.

    I don’t think there is much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan. From any poll I’ve seen Russia is seen positively in Kazakhstan. But this could change. If people are continually told that Russia is at fault for Kazakhstan not being powerful/prosperous enough this will eventually change many people’s opinions. For example, the Kazakh famine could be weaponized for this purpose similar to how the Ukrainian famine is.

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.

    I’m not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it’s not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Shortsword

    I don't know much about Kazakhstan and don't pretend to.

    IF the government is genuinely unpopular and this is truly a mass revolt, than if the revolt is crushed by Russian troops and the hated government is kept in power by Russians, Kazakhs will become anti-Russian even though they are not so now. In that case Russia will be in trouble: if it pulls out and is "defeated" the new government will be anti-Russian. Doubly so if Russia grabs Russian-populated territory in the North as it exits. If Russia stays to prop up the hated government, it will be invested as an occupying power for a long time.

    Of course, it may be that the revolt is not supported by majority of the Kazakhs and will be crushed locally without Russian help. Or the people may even be grateful for Russian help, if most of them support the government and the revolt is the work of a minority of troublemakers.

    Might pan-Turkicism play any role in any of this?

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d1/Map_of_Turkic_languages.svg/1920px-Map_of_Turkic_languages.svg.png

    Replies: @Shortsword

    , @Dmitry
    @Shortsword


    much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan.

     

    Yes and I was talking to some Kazakhs in Western Europe a few months ago. Although my impression they have a negative view of politics or life in Russia, don't even visit Russia for vacation, but of course they are in the Russian culture. They're not going to escape that easy.

    Kazakhstan has a more careful approach
     
    Azerbaijan had a more brutal independence, but I wouldn't say Kazakhstan's politicians are more careful today.

    "Mono-ethnic state" is a common word of Kazakhstan politicians for years. Whereas Azerbaijan promotes multiculturalism, their royal family visits Ivanovka (collective farm in Azerbaijan) as a showcase. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o_-CAmkW-k.) Azerbaijan loves to promote the Russian Orthodox Church.

    Russian minorities in Azerbaijan are not complaining in the internet or media, whereas with Kazakhstan there are people complaining about the rising nationalism. There's a lot on internet forums over the years where you read about the mild unease they feel with the official supported nationalism in Kazakhstan. Although I guess (just my very superficial impression) this is just in terms of their fear of the nationalism in words.

    , @A123
    @Shortsword


    I’m not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it’s not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians
     
    This seems about right. There is a great deal of "talk" about national unity, with ethnic overtones. However, there does not seem to be a great deal of "action" along those lines.

    -- Would Putin intervene if ethnic Russians were threatened? Possibly.
    -- Does he want to? Clearly not.

    The ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan are poorer that native Russians. Absorbing this region would be a resource challenge, much like assimilating Donbass or Belarus. Putin would rather deploy Russian assets elsewhere.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Dmitry

  247. @songbird
    Now that Tony Blair has been finally knighted, the Queen should send him into the interior of Africa, to help establish Harry's mineral kingdom.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Tony Blair pocketed 3.6 m GBP a year for advised Nursultan, former President of Kazakhstan. Isn’t that interesting?

    • Agree: songbird
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Kazakhstan's political class invests a lot for the UK. They invest a lot in London (but so does everyone in the postsoviet countries) and their elites are living there.

    -


    Kazakhstan's government has the friendly relations with the USA as well, with the US leading military exercises there.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG3eMILtcXU

    But unlike Uzbekistan they are still in CSTO, which might actually help them now, unlike some exercises with the USA.

  248. @Philip Owen
    @songbird

    Tony Blair pocketed 3.6 m GBP a year for advised Nursultan, former President of Kazakhstan. Isn't that interesting?

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Kazakhstan’s political class invests a lot for the UK. They invest a lot in London (but so does everyone in the postsoviet countries) and their elites are living there.

    Kazakhstan’s government has the friendly relations with the USA as well, with the US leading military exercises there.

    But unlike Uzbekistan they are still in CSTO, which might actually help them now, unlike some exercises with the USA.

  249. @Aedib
    @Shortsword

    It likely started as a spontaneous protest by the hike on energy prices. But that’s already gone. The Kazakh government backtracked on these hikes and the protests grew up. I think the protests are already hijacked by the usual suspects. Anyway, the Kazakh government just has to follow Batka’s example on how to drown the color revolution. If Tokayev goes by the Yanukovitch’ path, that’s his fault.

    Replies: @Beckow, @AP

    It isn’t completely up to the the government, the people make a difference. What worked with Belarussians wouldn’t have worked in Ukraine and may or may not work in Kazakhstan. Less docile Kazakhs have already grabbed some arms depots, shot some soldiers, and taken over a bunch of buildings, so already this is a more serious event that what happened with docile Belarussians.

    Neither you nor I know if this is a popular revolution or not, or how popular it may be. But your idea that a so-called “color revolution” can not also be a popular revolt is mistaken (you write as if the two are somehow mutually exclusive).

    Will Russia answer Kazakhstan’s president’s call for help? What will be the impact on attitudes towards Russia by Kazakhs if they get killed by Russian soldiers? If the revolt is more anti-Chinese than anti-Russian as Dmitri says, then it will become anti-Russian if Russia comes to kill Kazakhs in order to keep the hated government in power (if it is indeed, hated by most of its people). How many Russian troops will have to be kept there in order to keep the allied government in power?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @AP

    For now, it is at least only for ODKB to go to help Tokaev. Pashinyan announced this.

    But indeed if you help too openly Tokaev, then you are invested that he does not lose his position. If there is a reversal, then the new government in Kazakhstan would likely exit from the security agreements. (As Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan exited already).

    On the other hand, if it helps Tokaev survive? Then in such a scenario, there is a new motive for the Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan to re-join the security agreement. It's finally something useful as a security agreement, even if as an insurance policy for the postsoviet elites to control this kind of protest by their own people. Rather than to defend countries from non-member countries as e.g. Pashinyan would hope.

    , @Aedib
    @AP

    Things are more complicated than docility or lack of docility necessary for a legitimate uprising or an inducted color revolution to triumph. By the way, in these events, the less docile people were the Donbass people that rose against the Maidan regime which, in turn, was the product of a color revolution. Docility and popularity are just two variables of a complex multivariable game that do not necessarily define the result. For example, you can have a popular color revolution failing (like in Iran) or you can have an unpopular color revolution triumph (like in Bolivia, 2019).
    These games tend to be defined in the upper echelons of the power pyramid and in the Turkic world thing are even more complex because of the infighting between the power clans. In Kazakhstan we have so far riots which seems ultranationalists, the usual Internet agitprop from the usual suspects (Nexta, etc), an ongoing intervention by CSTO, infighting(?) between Nazarbayev and Tokayev, local oligarchs maneuvering and, in addition, possible maneuvers also from China and Turkey. Things are not only multivariable. The complicated power management of Turkic cultures lead to intricate power games (also in Turkey which nowadays is not ethnically very Turkic, LOL).

    Replies: @Dmitry

  250. @Shortsword
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia.
     
    I don't think there is much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan. From any poll I've seen Russia is seen positively in Kazakhstan. But this could change. If people are continually told that Russia is at fault for Kazakhstan not being powerful/prosperous enough this will eventually change many people's opinions. For example, the Kazakh famine could be weaponized for this purpose similar to how the Ukrainian famine is.

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.
     
    I'm not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it's not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @A123

    I don’t know much about Kazakhstan and don’t pretend to.

    IF the government is genuinely unpopular and this is truly a mass revolt, than if the revolt is crushed by Russian troops and the hated government is kept in power by Russians, Kazakhs will become anti-Russian even though they are not so now. In that case Russia will be in trouble: if it pulls out and is “defeated” the new government will be anti-Russian. Doubly so if Russia grabs Russian-populated territory in the North as it exits. If Russia stays to prop up the hated government, it will be invested as an occupying power for a long time.

    Of course, it may be that the revolt is not supported by majority of the Kazakhs and will be crushed locally without Russian help. Or the people may even be grateful for Russian help, if most of them support the government and the revolt is the work of a minority of troublemakers.

    Might pan-Turkicism play any role in any of this?

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @AP

    The CSTO assistance seems like a blunder no matter the result. Both from Kazakhstan and Russia. It just doesn't look good.

  251. @Shortsword
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia.
     
    I don't think there is much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan. From any poll I've seen Russia is seen positively in Kazakhstan. But this could change. If people are continually told that Russia is at fault for Kazakhstan not being powerful/prosperous enough this will eventually change many people's opinions. For example, the Kazakh famine could be weaponized for this purpose similar to how the Ukrainian famine is.

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.
     
    I'm not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it's not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @A123

    much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan.

    Yes and I was talking to some Kazakhs in Western Europe a few months ago. Although my impression they have a negative view of politics or life in Russia, don’t even visit Russia for vacation, but of course they are in the Russian culture. They’re not going to escape that easy.

    Kazakhstan has a more careful approach

    Azerbaijan had a more brutal independence, but I wouldn’t say Kazakhstan’s politicians are more careful today.

    “Mono-ethnic state” is a common word of Kazakhstan politicians for years. Whereas Azerbaijan promotes multiculturalism, their royal family visits Ivanovka (collective farm in Azerbaijan) as a showcase. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o_-CAmkW-k.) Azerbaijan loves to promote the Russian Orthodox Church.

    Russian minorities in Azerbaijan are not complaining in the internet or media, whereas with Kazakhstan there are people complaining about the rising nationalism. There’s a lot on internet forums over the years where you read about the mild unease they feel with the official supported nationalism in Kazakhstan. Although I guess (just my very superficial impression) this is just in terms of their fear of the nationalism in words.

  252. @songbird
    @A123


    How about an invented language, like Esperanto?
     
    Once read a novel where the villains spoke Esperanto, and I thought it was a really clever idea. Though, a parasitical model of politics (which I think holds) would suggest that the Left would rather speak Sioux or Choctaw, as they have more speakers.

    Similarly, Farsi and Arabic would be terrible choices from their perspective. Only the Arab oil states have any money. The others are all dirt poor (it is amazing how poor Morocco and Algeria are), and there are a lot of antagonisms between bordering countries. They are not intellectual centers, so not much of an academic niche to exploit. Plus, the disadvantage of gendered words.

    What makes English attractive is that it is a language of maximization. You can exploit the most resources using English - the most money, the most minds. English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers - that's more than Mandarin, and it's better than Mandarin because there is no Great Firewall, or censorship by the CCP.
    _____
    I wonder whether Cem Özdemir feels any sympathy for the price that his fellow Turks are paying for food in inflated currency. Or whether it is just his radical politics that are being shown. Probably if the Greens ever took total power there would be a worse famine than happened under Mao.

    Replies: @German_reader, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    English has 1.348 billion first and second language speakers – that’s more than Mandarin

    Mandarin is the spoken language, all the Sinitic languages / dialects are written in the same script, Chinese characters, hànzì 漢字.

    So it’s incorrect to say “It’s written in Mandarin”, only “It’s written in Chinese” since all the dialect speakers write using the same script.

    This is similar to Swiss German and other dialects are written in Standard German. But hànzì is logographic so can be used for vastly different languages, i.e. the agglutinative language Japanese.

    Someone fully literate in Chinese should be able to read 50 to 60% of a Japanese text. The reverse is somewhat less true since only mostly the educated knows kanji well, but still holds.

    So hànzì and kanji can be said to be used by ~1.5 billion people. (subject to Koreans reviving hanja which would increase that figure)

    • Thanks: songbird
  253. Soo… Baikonur – Ours!

    Or too soon? I don’t know much or care to know about Kazakh politics. I only care about the spaceport. Rogozin said it was calm last night but i was wondering more long term.

    Baikonur is a useful strategic place so if Russia decided to start securing things I would urge not to forget about it.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @mal

    Hope they at least cut the rent.

    , @AP
    @mal

    Baikonur is a Russian enclave far south of the main Russian settlement area in northern Kazakhstan. The surrounding region is 96% Kazakh.

    Even the 4 northern provinces are only about 40%-55% East Slavic depending on province, so annexation would add a lot more Muslims to Russia's population (unless those provinces were themselves split on ethnic lines).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kazakhstan_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kostanay_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlodar_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akmola_Region

    Replies: @mal, @Dmitry, @Aedib

  254. @AP
    @Aedib

    It isn't completely up to the the government, the people make a difference. What worked with Belarussians wouldn't have worked in Ukraine and may or may not work in Kazakhstan. Less docile Kazakhs have already grabbed some arms depots, shot some soldiers, and taken over a bunch of buildings, so already this is a more serious event that what happened with docile Belarussians.

    Neither you nor I know if this is a popular revolution or not, or how popular it may be. But your idea that a so-called "color revolution" can not also be a popular revolt is mistaken (you write as if the two are somehow mutually exclusive).

    Will Russia answer Kazakhstan's president's call for help? What will be the impact on attitudes towards Russia by Kazakhs if they get killed by Russian soldiers? If the revolt is more anti-Chinese than anti-Russian as Dmitri says, then it will become anti-Russian if Russia comes to kill Kazakhs in order to keep the hated government in power (if it is indeed, hated by most of its people). How many Russian troops will have to be kept there in order to keep the allied government in power?

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Aedib

    For now, it is at least only for ODKB to go to help Tokaev. Pashinyan announced this.

    But indeed if you help too openly Tokaev, then you are invested that he does not lose his position. If there is a reversal, then the new government in Kazakhstan would likely exit from the security agreements. (As Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan exited already).

    On the other hand, if it helps Tokaev survive? Then in such a scenario, there is a new motive for the Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan to re-join the security agreement. It’s finally something useful as a security agreement, even if as an insurance policy for the postsoviet elites to control this kind of protest by their own people. Rather than to defend countries from non-member countries as e.g. Pashinyan would hope.

  255. @AP
    @Shortsword

    I don't know much about Kazakhstan and don't pretend to.

    IF the government is genuinely unpopular and this is truly a mass revolt, than if the revolt is crushed by Russian troops and the hated government is kept in power by Russians, Kazakhs will become anti-Russian even though they are not so now. In that case Russia will be in trouble: if it pulls out and is "defeated" the new government will be anti-Russian. Doubly so if Russia grabs Russian-populated territory in the North as it exits. If Russia stays to prop up the hated government, it will be invested as an occupying power for a long time.

    Of course, it may be that the revolt is not supported by majority of the Kazakhs and will be crushed locally without Russian help. Or the people may even be grateful for Russian help, if most of them support the government and the revolt is the work of a minority of troublemakers.

    Might pan-Turkicism play any role in any of this?

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d1/Map_of_Turkic_languages.svg/1920px-Map_of_Turkic_languages.svg.png

    Replies: @Shortsword

    The CSTO assistance seems like a blunder no matter the result. Both from Kazakhstan and Russia. It just doesn’t look good.

  256. @mal
    Soo... Baikonur - Ours!

    Or too soon? I don't know much or care to know about Kazakh politics. I only care about the spaceport. Rogozin said it was calm last night but i was wondering more long term.

    Baikonur is a useful strategic place so if Russia decided to start securing things I would urge not to forget about it.

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    Hope they at least cut the rent.

  257. @mal
    Soo... Baikonur - Ours!

    Or too soon? I don't know much or care to know about Kazakh politics. I only care about the spaceport. Rogozin said it was calm last night but i was wondering more long term.

    Baikonur is a useful strategic place so if Russia decided to start securing things I would urge not to forget about it.

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    Baikonur is a Russian enclave far south of the main Russian settlement area in northern Kazakhstan. The surrounding region is 96% Kazakh.

    Even the 4 northern provinces are only about 40%-55% East Slavic depending on province, so annexation would add a lot more Muslims to Russia’s population (unless those provinces were themselves split on ethnic lines).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kazakhstan_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kostanay_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlodar_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akmola_Region

    • Replies: @mal
    @AP

    Good point. There are like 800,000 people in the province that hosts Baikonur, with population density of 3.5/km2. So don't annex the whole thing, just secure Baikonur, declare E-38 highway some sort of "international safe transit zone", +/- 100 km to either side to neutralize the hotheads with rocket launchers, and probably less than 100,000 tribals will have to move out of the way. Compensate them of course for loss of huts etc. Easily doable i think, and worth keeping the spaceport.

    As songbird mentioned rent savings alone will be worth it.

    , @Dmitry
    @AP


    more Muslims to Russia
     
    From what I could see, Kazakhs not usually such "fanatical Muslims" that you would scared of adding them in the country. It's mostly a modernized, secular, educated population.

    Of course, any concept of annexing Kazakhstan territory to Russia, would be crazy. It would be a sign of senility.

    It might add some small territory and alienate thousands of kilometres of border, millions of people.

    If the opiates epidemic (which causes the HIV epidemic) is not difficult to control, it would be unseen floods of opiates if Kazakhstan would be not co-operating in its border policy.

    There is no option of "build a wall" and "Kazakhstan will pay for it" on this border. It requires not alienating Kazakhstan. Although Kazakhstan was more "closed borders" and strict monitoring on this border than in the Russian side. Kremlin policy in recent years has been to create an open border zone with Kazakhstan, which also requires co-operation from Kazakhstan. You need good relations for either policy,

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @Aedib
    @AP

    These data shows that an Anschluss is no longer feasible. Jihadi Julian and the “Nexta team” are ringing the alarm bells about the “imminent takeover of South Siberia by Russia”. These are wild fantasies. What might happen, and as “last reaction”, are (de facto and not de jure) minor land grabs for ethical Russians to be saved from Khazak headchoppers and this is now very unlikely.

  258. @Shortsword
    @Dmitry


    These protests in Kazakhstan are apparently showing more in anti-China sentiment rather than anti-Russian sentiment, according to journalists. Spontaneous anger in Kazakhstan seems more against China, than against Russia.
     
    I don't think there is much anti-Russian sentiment in Kazakhstan. From any poll I've seen Russia is seen positively in Kazakhstan. But this could change. If people are continually told that Russia is at fault for Kazakhstan not being powerful/prosperous enough this will eventually change many people's opinions. For example, the Kazakh famine could be weaponized for this purpose similar to how the Ukrainian famine is.

    Kazakhstan’s situation in relation to Russia has similarities to Azerbaijan. This is the authorities try feed for their people an anti-Russian nationalism, but the country itself is far more of dependency of Russia. Kazakhstan’s government promotes anti-Russian views, while much of their elite and political class invest in Russia.
     
    I'm not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it's not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians.

    Replies: @AP, @Dmitry, @A123

    I’m not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it’s not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians

    This seems about right. There is a great deal of “talk” about national unity, with ethnic overtones. However, there does not seem to be a great deal of “action” along those lines.

    — Would Putin intervene if ethnic Russians were threatened? Possibly.
    — Does he want to? Clearly not.

    The ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan are poorer that native Russians. Absorbing this region would be a resource challenge, much like assimilating Donbass or Belarus. Putin would rather deploy Russian assets elsewhere.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @A123


    region would be a resource challenge
     
    Well, Kazakhstan has a lot of oil and natural resources. It can feed itself, at least when the commodity cycle is in uptrend. But you can assume they have a lot of corruption and lack of objective legal system that would allow development of competitive industries not connected to commodities market.

    assimilating Donbass or
     
    Donbass was a relatively economically strong region before 2014, with optimistic forecasts by professional economists' reports (at least optimistic in regional standards, which are low of course). Donetsk had one of the highest incomes in Ukraine and second largest number of wealthy people after Kiev.

    It's a strange feeling to read those old reports nowadays.

    You can see with each year after, what kind of pointless and terrible disaster 2014 has been for the region with the majority of its population now in poverty, a large proportion pensioners, with most of the younger population gone.

  259. @AP
    @mal

    Baikonur is a Russian enclave far south of the main Russian settlement area in northern Kazakhstan. The surrounding region is 96% Kazakh.

    Even the 4 northern provinces are only about 40%-55% East Slavic depending on province, so annexation would add a lot more Muslims to Russia's population (unless those provinces were themselves split on ethnic lines).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kazakhstan_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kostanay_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlodar_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akmola_Region

    Replies: @mal, @Dmitry, @Aedib

    Good point. There are like 800,000 people in the province that hosts Baikonur, with population density of 3.5/km2. So don’t annex the whole thing, just secure Baikonur, declare E-38 highway some sort of “international safe transit zone”, +/- 100 km to either side to neutralize the hotheads with rocket launchers, and probably less than 100,000 tribals will have to move out of the way. Compensate them of course for loss of huts etc. Easily doable i think, and worth keeping the spaceport.

    As songbird mentioned rent savings alone will be worth it.

  260. @AP
    @mal

    Baikonur is a Russian enclave far south of the main Russian settlement area in northern Kazakhstan. The surrounding region is 96% Kazakh.

    Even the 4 northern provinces are only about 40%-55% East Slavic depending on province, so annexation would add a lot more Muslims to Russia's population (unless those provinces were themselves split on ethnic lines).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kazakhstan_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kostanay_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlodar_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akmola_Region

    Replies: @mal, @Dmitry, @Aedib

    more Muslims to Russia

    From what I could see, Kazakhs not usually such “fanatical Muslims” that you would scared of adding them in the country. It’s mostly a modernized, secular, educated population.

    Of course, any concept of annexing Kazakhstan territory to Russia, would be crazy. It would be a sign of senility.

    It might add some small territory and alienate thousands of kilometres of border, millions of people.

    If the opiates epidemic (which causes the HIV epidemic) is not difficult to control, it would be unseen floods of opiates if Kazakhstan would be not co-operating in its border policy.

    There is no option of “build a wall” and “Kazakhstan will pay for it” on this border. It requires not alienating Kazakhstan. Although Kazakhstan was more “closed borders” and strict monitoring on this border than in the Russian side. Kremlin policy in recent years has been to create an open border zone with Kazakhstan, which also requires co-operation from Kazakhstan. You need good relations for either policy,

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    that you would scared of adding them in the country
     
    That's without saying, that the whole population of Kazakhstan are already like de facto Russian citizens now, with the policy of the Eurasian Economic Union for citizens of member states to have interchangeable movement and work rights.

    All Kazakhstan citizens can live and work freely in Russia without any need of permit, or to register anywhere. Except in terms of voting in elections, Kazakhstan citizen already have essentially the same position to live or work inside Russia as if they are Russian citizens.

  261. @Dmitry
    @AP


    more Muslims to Russia
     
    From what I could see, Kazakhs not usually such "fanatical Muslims" that you would scared of adding them in the country. It's mostly a modernized, secular, educated population.

    Of course, any concept of annexing Kazakhstan territory to Russia, would be crazy. It would be a sign of senility.

    It might add some small territory and alienate thousands of kilometres of border, millions of people.

    If the opiates epidemic (which causes the HIV epidemic) is not difficult to control, it would be unseen floods of opiates if Kazakhstan would be not co-operating in its border policy.

    There is no option of "build a wall" and "Kazakhstan will pay for it" on this border. It requires not alienating Kazakhstan. Although Kazakhstan was more "closed borders" and strict monitoring on this border than in the Russian side. Kremlin policy in recent years has been to create an open border zone with Kazakhstan, which also requires co-operation from Kazakhstan. You need good relations for either policy,

    Replies: @Dmitry

    that you would scared of adding them in the country

    That’s without saying, that the whole population of Kazakhstan are already like de facto Russian citizens now, with the policy of the Eurasian Economic Union for citizens of member states to have interchangeable movement and work rights.

    All Kazakhstan citizens can live and work freely in Russia without any need of permit, or to register anywhere. Except in terms of voting in elections, Kazakhstan citizen already have essentially the same position to live or work inside Russia as if they are Russian citizens.

  262. @A123
    @Shortsword


    I’m not sure if this is true. Kazakhstan has a more careful approach. They do promote some anti-Russian views but the government but it’s not as overt. So for example, naturally independence is pushed as being amazing and wonderful but this is done without making it a story of national liberation from evil Russians
     
    This seems about right. There is a great deal of "talk" about national unity, with ethnic overtones. However, there does not seem to be a great deal of "action" along those lines.

    -- Would Putin intervene if ethnic Russians were threatened? Possibly.
    -- Does he want to? Clearly not.

    The ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan are poorer that native Russians. Absorbing this region would be a resource challenge, much like assimilating Donbass or Belarus. Putin would rather deploy Russian assets elsewhere.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Dmitry

    region would be a resource challenge

    Well, Kazakhstan has a lot of oil and natural resources. It can feed itself, at least when the commodity cycle is in uptrend. But you can assume they have a lot of corruption and lack of objective legal system that would allow development of competitive industries not connected to commodities market.

    assimilating Donbass or

    Donbass was a relatively economically strong region before 2014, with optimistic forecasts by professional economists’ reports (at least optimistic in regional standards, which are low of course). Donetsk had one of the highest incomes in Ukraine and second largest number of wealthy people after Kiev.

    It’s a strange feeling to read those old reports nowadays.

    You can see with each year after, what kind of pointless and terrible disaster 2014 has been for the region with the majority of its population now in poverty, a large proportion pensioners, with most of the younger population gone.

  263. And also, as a space hydrogen shill/troll, to people interested in the next SpaceX.

    For what it’s worth, Stoke plans to use liquid hydrogen as the fuel for its second stage, and methane for the first stage. Methane isn’t a carbon-neutral fuel, which runs counter to Breakthrough Energy Ventures’ zero-emission vision. But Lapsa argued that other carbon-based rocket fuels (like kerosene, for example) are worse.

    “The best thing you can do, if you’re using a hydrocarbon fuel, is use the simplest hydrocarbon possible — and that’s methane,” he said.

    Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy leads \$65M funding round for Stoke Space’s reusable rockets

    https://www.geekwire.com/2021/breakthrough-energy-ventures-leads-65m-funding-round-for-stoke-spaces-reusable-rocket-stages/

    The ultimate best rocket configuration is – lower stage methane, upper stage hydrogen, electric plasma accelerator for the rest.

    We are slowly getting around to this, which is good news. Whoever rules space will rule the planet.

  264. It’s still not fully clear to me how the security apparatus lost control so easily.

    Or maybe they didn’t. There are indications that there could be elements of an inside job at play:

    FWIW, some CSTO members have already expressed reservations about an intervention.

    As a general rule, when there is a sudden lack of enforcement of key critical institutions, then there is usually foul play involved from the inside. We saw that on Jan 6th in the US last year, as Capitol police would let in protestors. It seems fairly obvious that FBI and intelligence agencies were aware of what was going to happen and allowed it proceed, if not instigated it. We now also know that FBI had moles inside the mob, thanks to NYT disclosures.

    If this is true in America, then a sudden disappearance of security forces in Kazakhstan likely hews to the same script. The situation did escalate much more in Kazakhstan, but that is a risk in any high-stakes gamble. My reading of the history of civil unrest is that there is rarely any “spontaneous” uprisings on this scale and often requires elite intervention (whether domestic or foreign). The sudden disappearance of security forces makes the entire episode even more bizarre.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Thulean Friend


    It’s still not fully clear to me how the security apparatus lost control so easily.
     
    Easy. The Soros guys are needy and pushed too hard ahead of Russia - NATO summit. So they shot their load prematurely. It happens to the best of us. From Russian side, why interrupt your "esteemed Western partner" when they are making a mistake? No reason at all.

    Kazakhstan contains a strategic spaceport and like 40% of world supply of uranium. I think it desperately needs the presence of Russian peacekeepers, and now it will get them.

    So all is well and how it is supposed to be. Thank you revolutionaries.
  265. @Thulean Friend
    It's still not fully clear to me how the security apparatus lost control so easily.

    https://twitter.com/tkassenova/status/1478827441397379073

    Or maybe they didn't. There are indications that there could be elements of an inside job at play:

    https://twitter.com/KassenovaNargis/status/1478863179832832009

    FWIW, some CSTO members have already expressed reservations about an intervention.

    As a general rule, when there is a sudden lack of enforcement of key critical institutions, then there is usually foul play involved from the inside. We saw that on Jan 6th in the US last year, as Capitol police would let in protestors. It seems fairly obvious that FBI and intelligence agencies were aware of what was going to happen and allowed it proceed, if not instigated it. We now also know that FBI had moles inside the mob, thanks to NYT disclosures.

    If this is true in America, then a sudden disappearance of security forces in Kazakhstan likely hews to the same script. The situation did escalate much more in Kazakhstan, but that is a risk in any high-stakes gamble. My reading of the history of civil unrest is that there is rarely any "spontaneous" uprisings on this scale and often requires elite intervention (whether domestic or foreign). The sudden disappearance of security forces makes the entire episode even more bizarre.

    Replies: @mal

    It’s still not fully clear to me how the security apparatus lost control so easily.

    Easy. The Soros guys are needy and pushed too hard ahead of Russia – NATO summit. So they shot their load prematurely. It happens to the best of us. From Russian side, why interrupt your “esteemed Western partner” when they are making a mistake? No reason at all.

    Kazakhstan contains a strategic spaceport and like 40% of world supply of uranium. I think it desperately needs the presence of Russian peacekeepers, and now it will get them.

    So all is well and how it is supposed to be. Thank you revolutionaries.

  266. @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    I didn't say this clearly to avoid offending some of your mildly Sinophile sensibilities, but wheels are coming off from the total lockdown regime in Xian. Anti-lockdowners need to guess why or see the agony of the residents in Xian, and Sinophobes are free to pick this as another evidence of an argument you're familiar with.

    First off, their original goal was to cut off all social transmissions (that means no transmissions outside of those who have been quarantined centrally, and all contacts and contacts of contacts have been quarantined), by 1/4. It failed but the curve is starting to flatten, which means there's still about 1-2 months to go.

    Before that, lots of things are falling apart:
    - Some people destined for centralized quarantine found out the lack of facilities at the site, which has no running water, electricity and heating, and attempted to return to their homes on feet.
    - For some time only potatoes and broccolis were distributed in some blocks.
    - Some patients weren't attended at all and left outside medical facilities until it was too late.
    - The health code system malfunctioned twice.
    - Like in Wuhan, the usual anti-Chinese prop outlets are alleging a higher lockdown death count than those dead with COVID. Those who allegedly are dead from starvation or exposure were "socially removed", unpersoned.

    All the above are likely real anecdotes except the last point, and there are Weibo evidence substantiating them. Now consider this is only the first 14 days and there's still a long way to go before they start loosening things up.

    The Chinese medical leadership's calculation might be like the Soviets in 1941- there is indeed an enemy, metaphorical in COVID's case, and a large human cost is acceptable as far as the enemy is ultimately destroyed. The Soviet Union lost 20 million in the war, much of them needlessly and avoidable with better strategic planning or without earlier purges. But a mutating virus isn't a country with leaders, generals and troops; Zero COVID is an unattainable goal. Of course, if you believe China has a part in the plans of the WEF, from the initial lab experiments and lockdowns, then more malicious explanations become possible.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    More nuanced perspective:

  267. @Thulean Friend
    Kazakh protestor is interviewed: "We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway".

    There is also a demand list floating about. It asks for a range of socio-economic measures. These demands should be seen in context:

    https://i.imgur.com/YwBVDVK.jpg

    Kazakhstan basically never recovered after the 2014 oil crash, yet their population's expectations didn't adjust to the new reality.

    It is of course possible - maybe even probable - that there is foreign meddling involved, but you can't get this kind of anger to explode without significant grievances simmering in the background.

    We can say for certain that major cities are seeing unrest, dozens are dead and massive property damage is ongoing. That doesn't strike me as a surefire way to get to prosperity.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Yevardian

    “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.

    Lol. This sort of retarded populist monkey logic is how useful idiots, incompetents and traitors like Saakashvili, Perón and Pashinyan get elected.

    NOTHING good will come of this, Central Asia only needs one big spark for that whole region to go off.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yevardian

    Perón???

    , @silviosilver
    @Yevardian

    There is nothing wrong with the desire itself. The masses, however, typically have outrageously unrealistic expectations of how quickly and easily that goal can be achieved, so they readily fall prey to political scammers who've mastered the lexicon of western liberalism but whose main aim is to enrich themselves no matter the cost to the country. (And Yellowface is right, Peron hardly fits this model.)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Every postsoviet country (except Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania) has gone to this political dystopia for the median citizen, with the wealthy clans, "harvesting" the majority of the population for salaries which are multiples less than the salary of MacDonald's workers in developed countries.

    If you would try to investigate the systems in any serious sense, you would go to a morgue. Meanwhile, governments are feeding every strange ideology to try to distract citizens (sometimes opposing their own life directly, as Aliev's family lives in Russia, while promoting Turkey), while prioritizing investment in security services.

    If it was one or two countries, it would be funny. But every country with the same situation. You are in Armenia, so you know already. For someone from any postsoviet country, talks to someoneone thousands of kilometres, completely different climate or ethnicity, to someone from another postsoviet country, and it's all the same situation.

    Of course, comparison postsoviet coutnries to Sweden and Norway, is absurd. Aside from their wealth and historical fortune, those countries have not been dictatorships since at least the 19th century.

    But perhaps Estonia would be interesting to study. E.g. It's only 40 years ago, they possibly killed film director Tarkovsky with their levels of carcinogenic pollution. Nowadays, OECD is saying they have very low pollution.

    They are actually managing to develop somekind of responsible governance to their ordinary citizens in just three decades? Although perhaps Estonia has an older advantage itself. They were already vastly most educated population in the Russian Empire.


    Pashinyan get elected.
     
    Pashinyan is announcing the rescue mission to help Тokаev. But nobody even offers help for Pashinyan when his wife is "fighting" in a war against Azerbaijan (while thousands of soldiers are killed by drones for YouTube). Neither help for Armenian citizens are breaking to his office, stealing "multiple bottles" of his perfume.

    Pashinyan's own election promise is about improving democracy in Armenia. But the benefit being demonstrated by CSTO support of Тokаev, is its ability to work as insurance for the postsoviet clan system.

    CSTO is finally, for the first time, showing that it is useful for the member countries. For Pashinyan though, it would imply he is hoping to be protected by this clan politics' insurance policy. I wonder if he is buying a villa in Forte dei Marmi already, perhaps near Zelensky's villa.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  268. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.
     
    Lol. This sort of retarded populist monkey logic is how useful idiots, incompetents and traitors like Saakashvili, Perón and Pashinyan get elected.

    NOTHING good will come of this, Central Asia only needs one big spark for that whole region to go off.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    Perón???

  269. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.
     
    Lol. This sort of retarded populist monkey logic is how useful idiots, incompetents and traitors like Saakashvili, Perón and Pashinyan get elected.

    NOTHING good will come of this, Central Asia only needs one big spark for that whole region to go off.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    There is nothing wrong with the desire itself. The masses, however, typically have outrageously unrealistic expectations of how quickly and easily that goal can be achieved, so they readily fall prey to political scammers who’ve mastered the lexicon of western liberalism but whose main aim is to enrich themselves no matter the cost to the country. (And Yellowface is right, Peron hardly fits this model.)

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @silviosilver

    I don't see why a former Latin American leader is listed between two Caucasian leaders.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  270. @silviosilver
    @Yevardian

    There is nothing wrong with the desire itself. The masses, however, typically have outrageously unrealistic expectations of how quickly and easily that goal can be achieved, so they readily fall prey to political scammers who've mastered the lexicon of western liberalism but whose main aim is to enrich themselves no matter the cost to the country. (And Yellowface is right, Peron hardly fits this model.)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I don’t see why a former Latin American leader is listed between two Caucasian leaders.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Yellowface Anon

    Perón is arguably the example of a populist leader who managed to run his country into the ground by making outrageous promises to his mob (his followers were referred to as 'los descamisados', or 'the shirtless') with practically no chance of becoming reality. Perhaps to his 'credit' he did attempt to make good on his unrealistic promises, at the cost of radically polarising society, and totally dislocating the economy. At the end of his first period in power, as Argentina's economy was imploding from hyperinflation and food-riots and street fights were breaking out, Perón made public statements urging his followers 'to kill 5 for every dead Perónist', which is when the military finally had enough and overthrew him to prevent civil war.

    The nature of his promises and ideology were so vague that his fanatical following immediately split off into far-left and far-right factions, with 'Perónist' urban guerillas and corrupt unions (and I am generally pro-union) plaguing the country for decades. In fact, his social and economic legacy left Argentina so unmanagable that the military actually invited Perón back in hope that he could tame the populist monster he'd created. Tragically, on his return, dozens of his avowed supporters actually managed to kill each other at a mass rally of his that degenerated into a brawl between leftist and rightist Peronistas.

    Perhaps I could have just shortened this by specificing that Perón exemplified incompetence, Pashinyan a traitor, and Saakashvili a useful idiot.

  271. @AP
    @Aedib

    It isn't completely up to the the government, the people make a difference. What worked with Belarussians wouldn't have worked in Ukraine and may or may not work in Kazakhstan. Less docile Kazakhs have already grabbed some arms depots, shot some soldiers, and taken over a bunch of buildings, so already this is a more serious event that what happened with docile Belarussians.

    Neither you nor I know if this is a popular revolution or not, or how popular it may be. But your idea that a so-called "color revolution" can not also be a popular revolt is mistaken (you write as if the two are somehow mutually exclusive).

    Will Russia answer Kazakhstan's president's call for help? What will be the impact on attitudes towards Russia by Kazakhs if they get killed by Russian soldiers? If the revolt is more anti-Chinese than anti-Russian as Dmitri says, then it will become anti-Russian if Russia comes to kill Kazakhs in order to keep the hated government in power (if it is indeed, hated by most of its people). How many Russian troops will have to be kept there in order to keep the allied government in power?

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Aedib

    Things are more complicated than docility or lack of docility necessary for a legitimate uprising or an inducted color revolution to triumph. By the way, in these events, the less docile people were the Donbass people that rose against the Maidan regime which, in turn, was the product of a color revolution. Docility and popularity are just two variables of a complex multivariable game that do not necessarily define the result. For example, you can have a popular color revolution failing (like in Iran) or you can have an unpopular color revolution triumph (like in Bolivia, 2019).
    These games tend to be defined in the upper echelons of the power pyramid and in the Turkic world thing are even more complex because of the infighting between the power clans. In Kazakhstan we have so far riots which seems ultranationalists, the usual Internet agitprop from the usual suspects (Nexta, etc), an ongoing intervention by CSTO, infighting(?) between Nazarbayev and Tokayev, local oligarchs maneuvering and, in addition, possible maneuvers also from China and Turkey. Things are not only multivariable. The complicated power management of Turkic cultures lead to intricate power games (also in Turkey which nowadays is not ethnically very Turkic, LOL).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Aedib

    Without wanting to depreciate the brutality of security services in Belarus (many protesters imprisoned and beaten), I agree with AP that it was quietly dissolved.

    Remember how the hi-tech workers in Belarus, supported the protest so strongly. But nowadays they just quietly emigrate.

    One reason Belarus is not so difficult to manage for the authorities, is a very aging population. This is bad for dependency ratio of future decades, but positive for the stability of the government.

    https://i.imgur.com/slxxU84.jpg

    In the Russian Federation, it is a similar situation with an aging population (especially among the slavic population), which means it should be increasingly easy to manage with each year for the government. By the 2040s, it will be too late for any street protests of energetic youth to generate much energy, as only a small proportion of the public will have the energy of youth.

    However, there is currently a high flood of young people into the largest cities. So because of the flood of young people internal immigration, cities like Moscow have disproportionate populations of young people. This can be potentially difficult to manage for the authorities. Although I think they will have few problems overall, considering the strength of security systems.

    As for Kazakhstan. Like other central Asian countries, a high fertility rate, with upcoming larger youth population. This could be difficult for the government to survive. But there is at least an offpressure of emigration to Russia or even China. Uzbekistan can potentially use this offpressure even more, as much of their young people can emigrate to Russia and China.

    Without offpressure of emigration of youth, it could seem a very unstable future situation for the authorities to manage the population in Central Asia.

    Replies: @Beckow

  272. @AP
    @mal

    Baikonur is a Russian enclave far south of the main Russian settlement area in northern Kazakhstan. The surrounding region is 96% Kazakh.

    Even the 4 northern provinces are only about 40%-55% East Slavic depending on province, so annexation would add a lot more Muslims to Russia's population (unless those provinces were themselves split on ethnic lines).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kazakhstan_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kostanay_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlodar_Region

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akmola_Region

    Replies: @mal, @Dmitry, @Aedib

    These data shows that an Anschluss is no longer feasible. Jihadi Julian and the “Nexta team” are ringing the alarm bells about the “imminent takeover of South Siberia by Russia”. These are wild fantasies. What might happen, and as “last reaction”, are (de facto and not de jure) minor land grabs for ethical Russians to be saved from Khazak headchoppers and this is now very unlikely.

  273. @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    “We want to live like in Sweden or in Norway“.
     
    Lol. This sort of retarded populist monkey logic is how useful idiots, incompetents and traitors like Saakashvili, Perón and Pashinyan get elected.

    NOTHING good will come of this, Central Asia only needs one big spark for that whole region to go off.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @silviosilver, @Dmitry

    Every postsoviet country (except Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania) has gone to this political dystopia for the median citizen, with the wealthy clans, “harvesting” the majority of the population for salaries which are multiples less than the salary of MacDonald’s workers in developed countries.

    If you would try to investigate the systems in any serious sense, you would go to a morgue. Meanwhile, governments are feeding every strange ideology to try to distract citizens (sometimes opposing their own life directly, as Aliev’s family lives in Russia, while promoting Turkey), while prioritizing investment in security services.

    If it was one or two countries, it would be funny. But every country with the same situation. You are in Armenia, so you know already. For someone from any postsoviet country, talks to someoneone thousands of kilometres, completely different climate or ethnicity, to someone from another postsoviet country, and it’s all the same situation.

    Of course, comparison postsoviet coutnries to Sweden and Norway, is absurd. Aside from their wealth and historical fortune, those countries have not been dictatorships since at least the 19th century.

    But perhaps Estonia would be interesting to study. E.g. It’s only 40 years ago, they possibly killed film director Tarkovsky with their levels of carcinogenic pollution. Nowadays, OECD is saying they have very low pollution.

    They are actually managing to develop somekind of responsible governance to their ordinary citizens in just three decades? Although perhaps Estonia has an older advantage itself. They were already vastly most educated population in the Russian Empire.

    Pashinyan get elected.

    Pashinyan is announcing the rescue mission to help Тokаev. But nobody even offers help for Pashinyan when his wife is “fighting” in a war against Azerbaijan (while thousands of soldiers are killed by drones for YouTube). Neither help for Armenian citizens are breaking to his office, stealing “multiple bottles” of his perfume.

    Pashinyan’s own election promise is about improving democracy in Armenia. But the benefit being demonstrated by CSTO support of Тokаev, is its ability to work as insurance for the postsoviet clan system.

    CSTO is finally, for the first time, showing that it is useful for the member countries. For Pashinyan though, it would imply he is hoping to be protected by this clan politics’ insurance policy. I wonder if he is buying a villa in Forte dei Marmi already, perhaps near Zelensky’s villa.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Dmitry


    Of course, comparing post-Soviet countries to Sweden and Norway, is absurd. Aside from their wealth and historical fortune, those countries have not been dictatorships since at least the 19th century.
     
    Sweden was almost unique in Europe insofar as that our peasants had significant democratic rights early on. Secondly, a significant share nobility's privileges - not to mention their wealth and estates - began to be dismantled and re-nationalised by Karl XI without barely a shot fired. Of course, some privileges were kept to maintain systemic stability, but they nevertheless faced considerable losses compared to what their used to have.

    Typically such convulsions require revolutions and massive civil wars, yet both changes went quietly.

    When we lost Norway in early 20th century, there was a lot of recalcitrant talk of massing a huge army and doing a hostile occupation. Thankfully, our government ignored such voices.

    I think this is a key difference between us and the Caucasoids/Balkanoids. We had plenty of opportunities to enter the same kind of meaningless bloodfeuds but we chose otherwise. We have our prosperity to thank for it.

    At root, it's probably a difference in temperament. My impression is that we are considerably calmer and more collected than hotheaded Caucasoids/Balkanoids and thus better able to settle disputes in a formalised manner. Importantly, the losers are restrained when faced with their loss (as the nobility were when losing some of their privileges), which helps overall stability.


    CSTO is finally, for the first time, showing that it is useful for the member countries.
     
    That was a long time coming.

    https://twitter.com/mhikaric/status/1478863588332916738

    Replies: @Yevardian, @Dmitry, @silviosilver, @silviosilver

  274. @Aedib
    @AP

    Things are more complicated than docility or lack of docility necessary for a legitimate uprising or an inducted color revolution to triumph. By the way, in these events, the less docile people were the Donbass people that rose against the Maidan regime which, in turn, was the product of a color revolution. Docility and popularity are just two variables of a complex multivariable game that do not necessarily define the result. For example, you can have a popular color revolution failing (like in Iran) or you can have an unpopular color revolution triumph (like in Bolivia, 2019).
    These games tend to be defined in the upper echelons of the power pyramid and in the Turkic world thing are even more complex because of the infighting between the power clans. In Kazakhstan we have so far riots which seems ultranationalists, the usual Internet agitprop from the usual suspects (Nexta, etc), an ongoing intervention by CSTO, infighting(?) between Nazarbayev and Tokayev, local oligarchs maneuvering and, in addition, possible maneuvers also from China and Turkey. Things are not only multivariable. The complicated power management of Turkic cultures lead to intricate power games (also in Turkey which nowadays is not ethnically very Turkic, LOL).

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Without wanting to depreciate the brutality of security services in Belarus (many protesters imprisoned and beaten), I agree with AP that it was quietly dissolved.

    Remember how the hi-tech workers in Belarus, supported the protest so strongly. But nowadays they just quietly emigrate.

    One reason Belarus is not so difficult to manage for the authorities, is a very aging population. This is bad for dependency ratio of future decades, but positive for the stability of the government.

    In the Russian Federation, it is a similar situation with an aging population (especially among the slavic population), which means it should be increasingly easy to manage with each year for the government. By the 2040s, it will be too late for any street protests of energetic youth to generate much energy, as only a small proportion of the public will have the energy of youth.

    However, there is currently a high flood of young people into the largest cities. So because of the flood of young people internal immigration, cities like Moscow have disproportionate populations of young people. This can be potentially difficult to manage for the authorities. Although I think they will have few problems overall, considering the strength of security systems.

    As for Kazakhstan. Like other central Asian countries, a high fertility rate, with upcoming larger youth population. This could be difficult for the government to survive. But there is at least an offpressure of emigration to Russia or even China. Uzbekistan can potentially use this offpressure even more, as much of their young people can emigrate to Russia and China.

    Without offpressure of emigration of youth, it could seem a very unstable future situation for the authorities to manage the population in Central Asia.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Dmitry

    Kazakstan is basically a landlocked country - no outlets other than across the Caspian that can easily be blocked. You have millions of people cooped-up in a large, open space with no realistic way to go anywhere (esp. after corona). The local elites have been harvesting the resources and moving their wealth out. Of course the young riot. After the riots they will still be a landlocked backwater dominated by comprador elites .

    Maybe they are doing it out of ennui, the pure hopelessness of the situation, some plunder, a few will manage to escape (Sweden?). Or maybe a blood-bath, that always clears minds. Another way to go is to fight with each other, there are enough different groups. We are back to the premodern era, the countries consciously reject any responsibility for how their people live - that would be "socialism", and we can't have that. Markets rule - as they have since the stone age. Markets rule by the rule of a bigger wallet, or sometimes a bigger stick. The elites absolutely love it, they have both.

    This is what life is like after people give up, after they buy the liberal claptrap that "freedom" is all that matters, that material lives don't have to managed, that the invisible hand in a divine fashion rules over us in the best of the all possible worlds. In reality, freedom is a simple neglect, and liberty is nothing else than elite accumulation of assets. Enjoy, at least the evil state is not keeping enterpreneurs from flourishing. This is good stuff, they say so, it must be. There is no alternative.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  275. Is cheap energy for consumers the mechanism that made for the Kazakstan bitcoin manufacturing market share?

    Is there an overlap between bitcoin big dogs and color revolution promoters?

  276. Hey Tolly,

    I don’t know if you are still here, but if not maybe Ron can do it:

    The inherent depression that white men suffer depresses me. Maybe you should utilize this thread to teach non-Slavic whites (most of the readers) to enjoy life as much as the Russkies do…

    https://worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh2vOo220IWzp5oZZ0

  277. @Dmitry
    @Aedib

    Without wanting to depreciate the brutality of security services in Belarus (many protesters imprisoned and beaten), I agree with AP that it was quietly dissolved.

    Remember how the hi-tech workers in Belarus, supported the protest so strongly. But nowadays they just quietly emigrate.

    One reason Belarus is not so difficult to manage for the authorities, is a very aging population. This is bad for dependency ratio of future decades, but positive for the stability of the government.

    https://i.imgur.com/slxxU84.jpg

    In the Russian Federation, it is a similar situation with an aging population (especially among the slavic population), which means it should be increasingly easy to manage with each year for the government. By the 2040s, it will be too late for any street protests of energetic youth to generate much energy, as only a small proportion of the public will have the energy of youth.

    However, there is currently a high flood of young people into the largest cities. So because of the flood of young people internal immigration, cities like Moscow have disproportionate populations of young people. This can be potentially difficult to manage for the authorities. Although I think they will have few problems overall, considering the strength of security systems.

    As for Kazakhstan. Like other central Asian countries, a high fertility rate, with upcoming larger youth population. This could be difficult for the government to survive. But there is at least an offpressure of emigration to Russia or even China. Uzbekistan can potentially use this offpressure even more, as much of their young people can emigrate to Russia and China.

    Without offpressure of emigration of youth, it could seem a very unstable future situation for the authorities to manage the population in Central Asia.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Kazakstan is basically a landlocked country – no outlets other than across the Caspian that can easily be blocked. You have millions of people cooped-up in a large, open space with no realistic way to go anywhere (esp. after corona). The local elites have been harvesting the resources and moving their wealth out. Of course the young riot. After the riots they will still be a landlocked backwater dominated by comprador elites .

    Maybe they are doing it out of ennui, the pure hopelessness of the situation, some plunder, a few will manage to escape (Sweden?). Or maybe a blood-bath, that always clears minds. Another way to go is to fight with each other, there are enough different groups. We are back to the premodern era, the countries consciously reject any responsibility for how their people live – that would be “socialism”, and we can’t have that. Markets rule – as they have since the stone age. Markets rule by the rule of a bigger wallet, or sometimes a bigger stick. The elites absolutely love it, they have both.

    This is what life is like after people give up, after they buy the liberal claptrap that “freedom” is all that matters, that material lives don’t have to managed, that the invisible hand in a divine fashion rules over us in the best of the all possible worlds. In reality, freedom is a simple neglect, and liberty is nothing else than elite accumulation of assets. Enjoy, at least the evil state is not keeping enterpreneurs from flourishing. This is good stuff, they say so, it must be. There is no alternative.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Beckow


    millions of people cooped
     
    Although Kazakhstan citizens are not really cooped, as they can live in Russia, just as easily as any Russian citizen.

    Eurasian Economic Union is like a nationality exchange program. If you are a Kazakhstan citizen, you can live and work in Russia without any paperwork, the same as any Russian citizen. Soon it is supposed to be able to even travel by plane between constituent countries without needing an external passport. It will be like traveling inside the same country. I believe the only difference of the citizenships, will be that Kazakh citizens cannot vote in the Russian election.

    So, with such kind of border and mutual trust, you can see how important it should be to not alienate the Kazakh popular viewpoint.


    local elites have been harvesting the resources and moving their wealth out
     
    Much of the money of their vast natural resources and oil wealth, will be in politicians' $500,000 watches, and in Monaco and London. Then it will re-enter Kazakhstan as "FDI", but this "FDI" actually just Kazakhstan's money returning after being cleaned through offshore accounts and assets.

    It's completely predictable, but it shouldn't be inevitable if people would be able to create a little more bargaining power.

    In Norway, a lot of vast profits from their oil, probably really will return to be invested in education or hospitals of the ordinary. It doesn't require socialist revolution, but some reliable accountancy and transparency with administration.


    the evil state is not keeping enterpreneurs from flourishing. This is good stuff, they say so,
     
    But if the state doesn't have any one to one relation to the people in the state. If it is built on self-interest of a few narrow clans or clique, and one person can have more influence in its direction than a hundred million citizens?

    Of course, state is not necessarily evil. Many problems of our collective life, can only be solved through a state. Food safety regulation or street lights, will not be too successful without a state. But how much would you trust it to have more control over you? If it's not reasonable for you to trust them, then it can indeed be reasonable to celebrate for situation where state is more limited, has stricter rules to define it in relation to the public. It depends a lot on the nature of state, its contract with the public, whether there are self-correction mechanisms, or mechanisms for the population to correct it (which are hopefully not so destabilizing as blockading the Bastille).

  278. Australia has the greatest tennis player ever under hotel arrest because of vaccination.**

    https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/exclusive-novak-djokovic-denied-entry-australia-seeking-injunction-stop-2022-01-05/

    “They are keeping him in captivity. They are stomping all over Novak to stomp all over Serbia,” said his father, who earlier described his son to local media as “the Spartacus of the new world”.

    ** that is the greatest ever so far.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    They are stomping all over Novak to stomp all over Serbia,” said his father,
     
    Lol, it's probably not news to anyone here, but that sort of conspiratard thinking is sadly very widespread among Serbs (and related peoples). Pity for Novak, who seems like a nice guy (not that I know anything about him) and who you can easily imagine being embarrassed by such a fuckwit of a father. There was Serbian-Australian tennis player, Jelena Dokic, who made a bit of a splash about twenty years ago, whose father was cast from the same fuckwit mold as Novak's, and who gave similarly embarrassing media interviews. You have to figure these people have no idea how nutty they sound to others, else they'd restrain themselves a bit.

    ** that is the greatest ever so far.
     
    Thanks for that clarification bro. For a minute I thought you might be visiting us from the distance future.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  279. @Mikhail
    A neocon weenie gets roasted:

    https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1478767027343044611

    Replies: @Mikel

    I haven’t been following Ukrainian politics much lately but Poroshenko being sought for arrest under the accusation of treason sounds like the Maidan revolution entering a Thermidor phase of sorts. Last time I checked he was the leader of the second party in Ukraine and in the elections he had represented a more revolutionary alternative to Zelensky, even accusing him of being a Putin stooge. I wonder if Poroshenko’s former friends in the EU will have anything to say this time. It’s not just pro-Russians and communists being prosecuted now.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Mikel

    If I'm not mistaken, the basis against Porky is because he bought coal from Donbass. Whatever, the case, calling the Kiev regime a democracy is farcical.

    Farkas at it again:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1478936905278541825

  280. Seems remarkable to me that Kazakhstan is the world’s largest Muslim country by area. Even bigger than Sudan before it split. Though, I suppose it is not very relevant, as a categorization.

  281. @Dmitry
    @Yevardian

    Every postsoviet country (except Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania) has gone to this political dystopia for the median citizen, with the wealthy clans, "harvesting" the majority of the population for salaries which are multiples less than the salary of MacDonald's workers in developed countries.

    If you would try to investigate the systems in any serious sense, you would go to a morgue. Meanwhile, governments are feeding every strange ideology to try to distract citizens (sometimes opposing their own life directly, as Aliev's family lives in Russia, while promoting Turkey), while prioritizing investment in security services.

    If it was one or two countries, it would be funny. But every country with the same situation. You are in Armenia, so you know already. For someone from any postsoviet country, talks to someoneone thousands of kilometres, completely different climate or ethnicity, to someone from another postsoviet country, and it's all the same situation.

    Of course, comparison postsoviet coutnries to Sweden and Norway, is absurd. Aside from their wealth and historical fortune, those countries have not been dictatorships since at least the 19th century.

    But perhaps Estonia would be interesting to study. E.g. It's only 40 years ago, they possibly killed film director Tarkovsky with their levels of carcinogenic pollution. Nowadays, OECD is saying they have very low pollution.

    They are actually managing to develop somekind of responsible governance to their ordinary citizens in just three decades? Although perhaps Estonia has an older advantage itself. They were already vastly most educated population in the Russian Empire.


    Pashinyan get elected.
     
    Pashinyan is announcing the rescue mission to help Тokаev. But nobody even offers help for Pashinyan when his wife is "fighting" in a war against Azerbaijan (while thousands of soldiers are killed by drones for YouTube). Neither help for Armenian citizens are breaking to his office, stealing "multiple bottles" of his perfume.

    Pashinyan's own election promise is about improving democracy in Armenia. But the benefit being demonstrated by CSTO support of Тokаev, is its ability to work as insurance for the postsoviet clan system.

    CSTO is finally, for the first time, showing that it is useful for the member countries. For Pashinyan though, it would imply he is hoping to be protected by this clan politics' insurance policy. I wonder if he is buying a villa in Forte dei Marmi already, perhaps near Zelensky's villa.

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    Of course, comparing post-Soviet countries to Sweden and Norway, is absurd. Aside from their wealth and historical fortune, those countries have not been dictatorships since at least the 19th century.

    Sweden was almost unique in Europe insofar as that our peasants had significant democratic rights early on. Secondly, a significant share nobility’s privileges – not to mention their wealth and estates – began to be dismantled and re-nationalised by Karl XI without barely a shot fired. Of course, some privileges were kept to maintain systemic stability, but they nevertheless faced considerable losses compared to what their used to have.

    Typically such convulsions require revolutions and massive civil wars, yet both changes went quietly.

    When we lost Norway in early 20th century, there was a lot of recalcitrant talk of massing a huge army and doing a hostile occupation. Thankfully, our government ignored such voices.

    I think this is a key difference between us and the Caucasoids/Balkanoids. We had plenty of opportunities to enter the same kind of meaningless bloodfeuds but we chose otherwise. We have our prosperity to thank for it.

    At root, it’s probably a difference in temperament. My impression is that we are considerably calmer and more collected than hotheaded Caucasoids/Balkanoids and thus better able to settle disputes in a formalised manner. Importantly, the losers are restrained when faced with their loss (as the nobility were when losing some of their privileges), which helps overall stability.

    CSTO is finally, for the first time, showing that it is useful for the member countries.

    That was a long time coming.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Thulean Friend


    I think this is a key difference between us and the Caucasoids/Balkanoids. We had plenty of opportunities to enter the same kind of meaningless bloodfeuds but we chose otherwise. We have our prosperity to thank for it.

    At root, it’s probably a difference in temperament. My impression is that we are considerably calmer and more collected than hotheaded Caucasoids/Balkanoids and thus better able to settle disputes in a formalised manner. Importantly, the losers are restrained when faced with their loss (as the nobility were when losing some of their privileges), which helps overall stability.
     

    How very in character when people in your demographic feel perfectly comfortable in blaming the national character of Balkans and Caucasian peoples for their middling levels of development, but when discussions of third-world immigration come up, India, the Arab world and Africa are purely the 'victims' of colonialism, and Europeans should feel obliged to take as many of them as possible.

    Unlike Scandinavia (and unlike the other regions I mentioned) the Balkans and Caucasus were submerged under alien rule for many hundreds of years, almost half a millennia in some instances such as Bulgaria. Those internecine Balkan feuds were also heavily stoked by external great power involvement (San Stefano, Austria's annexation of Bosnia, etc.) upon their independence.

    , @Dmitry
    @Thulean Friend


    difference in temperament
     
    But look at Kazakhs. In some ways, they could seem like they should be very different to Ukrainians. Yet politically, Kazakhstan is behaving very analogous to Ukraine.

    It reminds of my discussion last week with Mikel, about Latin America, when he was writing that the region is dysfunctional partly because of indigenous nationalities. This postsoviet space (also postrussian Empire space) has a very wide range of ethnicities, with different cultural history, temperament, etc.

    Yet in terms of the political problems, all countries are behaving very similar, with very similar dysfunctions and problems. It's an example where local differences of constituent nationalities seem less important than this wider situation.


    CSTO's transition to a Warsaw Pact lite where it's purpose is to maintain internal regime stability as opposed to external defense.
     
    Yes, but only a "transition" in terms of knowledge of ordinary people, learning that the purpose CSTO's is to maintain internal regime stability of the member governments. This is always its real purpose, but in this example it is a little too obvious.

    You can not underestimate how gullible and easily controlled, postsoviet ordinary people are. For example, until the coronavirus pandemic, I didn't understand that official data are so regularly faked. I was naively for years reading about such data, and believing it is serious because it is published in a respectable media (e.g. "Vedomosti", "Kommersant"). But even the census is miscounting by millions of people and many cities are faking their population numbers. Patterns of official numbers in many areas of life, could only be understood by forensic accountants.

    Replies: @Mikel, @AP

    , @silviosilver
    @Thulean Friend


    Typically such convulsions require revolutions and massive civil wars, yet both changes went quietly.
     
    Yes, that's what is most impressive to me about the Swedish achievement. Even though, based on available GDP data, Sweden was considerable poorer than the rest of western Europe, when at some in the latter 19th century it decided - in a nutshell - that prostrating oneself before kings and God was an altogether useless way to live, and that what really mattered was addressing the common man's material needs, they set about accomplishing that end with remarkable speed and efficiency.

    At root, it’s probably a difference in temperament.
     
    I think that goes without saying, but the way that difference plays out in the world is a bit more subtle than "oh those balkanoid hotheads, you can't expect anything good to ever come from them." It's not as if no one in that part of the world is conciliatory. For instance, Greco-Bulgarian reconciliation is on the level of Franco-German, in terms of the historical rivalry and bitterness it has overcome. (Of course, vigilance is required to maintain it, but the same is true of France and Germany.)

    You might also consider the vast numbers of homegrown communists who, for all their failings, made a very sincere effort to tamp down on ethnic hostilities. (They didn't go hard enough; if I had been in charge, I'd have given those bastards a thousand Bleiburgs.)

    A simple model to understand the subtle difference is the boiling point analogy. Water boils at 100, but alcohol boils at 78. So if the germanics are water, balkanoids are alcohol - it takes less to set them off. But if you can maintain a suitable temperature, there's no reason that things must boil over. In addition to that, the greater prevalence of outright shitheads among balkanoids means that, when the conditions arise, the balance is comparably more likely to be tipped towards narrow, unreasoning chauvinism.

    To me, the greatest problem is that, once tipped, the foregoing reasons also make it more likely that it will stay tipped. Since right action springs from right thought, the consequences of setting out with, and then rigidly maintaining - come what may - fallacious assumptions about reality can be utterly devastating. It's like when humans begin with the question "what does God want?" instead of "what do humans need?", literally thousands of years can be wasted in needless suffering because the latter question, far from being answered, is never even asked.

    Anyway, strecan Bozic svima koji danas slave!

    Replies: @Dmitry

    , @silviosilver
    @Thulean Friend


    We had plenty of opportunities to enter the same kind of meaningless bloodfeuds but we chose otherwise. We have our prosperity to thank for it.
     
    Not trying to grammar shame you, but... well, okay, I am, but since all's fair in love and race war, if you'll kindly permit me: I think you meant to say, you owe your prosperi