The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection$
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersRussian Reaction Blog
Open Thread 168
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • B
Show CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

This is presumably my last Open Thread on Russian Reaction (posted on on A123’s request).

As I said in the previous thread, after 7 years of blogging, I will be leaving The Unz Review. Though my original intention was to focus on other, non-blogging related projects, there was such a large outpouring of demand for me to continue producing content from my loyal readership that I became increasingly uncomfortable with disappointing you and letting the diverse, vibrant, and multicultural community that has coalesced here over the years just wither away. So I decided to make an earnest effort at keeping it alive.

You’ll be able to continue reading me at Substack.

Weekly Open Threads + longreads, as often as I can manage. I won’t spam your inbox with short/Tweet like posts. For that, there’s… Twitter?

Some of you such as Dmitry and A123 have asked how we can keep the “broad” discussions we see in these Open Threads going. Substack’s main problem is that its commenting system leaves much to be desired, so I’m now sure if equivalent Open Takes there can replicate the effect. As such, it might eventually be best to find an alternative for such “free-wheeling” discussions. I notice that Scott Alexander has a forum, a Discord, and a subreddit. I am too lazy and pressed for time to run a forum, and I don’t want to mix too much with plebbitors, but perhaps Discord could be an option. Discord is often used for gaming and crypto discussions, so there’s some good intersections there, but it’s also a rather SJW platform, so not the most stable foundation to built on. More speculatively, I hear that urbit should be ready for mass adoption by early 2022. (Joining now requires jumping through hoops that will be unrealistic for most people). Let me know your thoughts in the comments. If I do decide that Substack comment-threads are insufficient, I will eventually announce it at the Substack. But this is very low priority and I can’t 100% guarantee it will even happen. Maybe Substack will suffice.

Otherwise, feel free to discuss whatever in this Open Thread. I will not be actively moderating it and will stop checking up on it after a week or two.

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 
Hide 1171 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. This is the current Open Thread, where anything goes – within reason.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

    • Replies: @Mike in Boston
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Could it be coincidence that Karlin retires from this blog and all of a sudden the sovok blue pillers notch a big win, claiming the scalp of "мужское государство"?

    https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/72920/

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Che Guava
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I am sorry to hear it Anatoly. Not that I have been a noteworthy on the open threads.

    Have watched for the first times, the BBC's old version, teleplay from 1954.

    The Anglo-USA version from 1956. Crap.

    There is no film of We, but I will give rough rankings to versions of 1984.

    1. Gilliam's Brazil

    2. BBC teleplay from 1954

    3. Never made take of We

    4. Electro-pop version from 1984, to say the least, as O'Brien, it was the last great role by Richard Burton.

    5. Useless 1956 Anglo-American version

  2. I personally don’t understand why you can’t just continue blogging here on Unz given its superior commenting system. I understand your decision to “retire” from full time blogging but is there any real reason to migrate to substack for your newsletter?

    Anyway, I quite enjoy your open thread posts with their collection of material that piqued your interest, and the subsequent comments threads on those topics.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Kuru

    How about regular Open Threads here on UR if Ron’s up for it, with AK’s longer work (“Effortposts”) at Substack as announced?

    I subscribed right away to AK on Substack. We may butt heads, but the guy is a unique talent, perspective, and personality, and he’s gotta make a living. (Just don’t make it all transhumanism and video games, alright Anatoly?)

    But I would very much like the Open Threads to continue. Both to still have the AK style here and to look into the topics/links he finds and throws out to the waiting audience. Equally important, the ensuing comments section is the single best thing on UR for me. I have learned a lot about social, cultural, religious, and economic developments in the RF and former Soviet space, as well on foreign policy. AK’s columns and the commenters together have intensified my interest in Russia and in getting to know the cultures of that part of the world much more in depth.

    Several of our children have started learning Russian — dropping another language to do so — and we will be looking into high school and college student-exchange programs in Russia for them. Or more. Some of that is from the interest kindled by AK and his Merry Band of Slavs and Wanna-Be Slavs. Thanks to Ron and Anatoly.

    , @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Kuru

    He is not maintaining a blog, so that I can shitpost in the comments section. A few years ago, he wanted to be a vlogger on Youtube. He still hopes to make some money, so let the man follow his dream. I am not going to forecast anything this time.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  3. AK — Many thanks.

    There we’re a couple of interesting items related to China that did not fit in your “goodbye” thread.
    ____

    The Pacific Container Shipping issue gets more complex: (1)

    The number of container ships at anchor or drifting at one of the busiest ports in China has jumped to the highest level since August, indicating supply chain disruptions will continue into the holiday season. Right now is the critical period where US importers build inventory for Christmas shopping. If they fail to do so, expect shortages of popular consumer goods.

    China’s Yantian port in Shenzhen has had its fair share of issues this past summer, primarily due to a COVID outbreak forcing one of its terminals to shutter operations. Since then, the terminal has reopened.

    But now, the port has ceased container handling operations after the Chinese weather authorities issued cyclone alerts. Bloomberg’s vessel tracking data shows at least 67 ships are currently queued outside Yantian, the highest since 26 August.

    Part of the overall problems seems to be that container owners are trying to rush TEU’s back to China to capture the currently very high China to US pricing. They placed their empty containers on the fastest option available.

    As a consequence, U.S. export goods in train cars and truck trailers are still occupying those as temporary storage. These full transport options are thus:
        • Unavailable to hold new unloaded cargo.
        • Fully occupied limited Western holding space.
    As more vehicle transport becomes “storage” the lack of transport capacity becomes worse. It feels like we have already reached a tipping point due to the lack of empty containers in the U.S.

    Backlog off Long Beach / Los Angeles will continue to rise, because there is no way to get unloaded containers out of the port… Because there are no empty containers to free up vehicles for that cargo.
    ____

    At the same time China has a separate problem with property developers going into full financial contagion: (2)

    China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball on Monday as Evergrande was set to miss its third round of (offshore) bond payments in as many weeks and rival Modern Land became the latest scrambling to delay deadlines.

    Having already suffered the fastest drop on record, Chinese junk bond markets – where property developer issuers dominate – were routed once again as fears about fast-spreading contagion in the \$5 trillion sector, which drives a sizable chunk of the Chinese economy, continued to savage sentiment. Meanwhile, China Evergrande Group’s offshore bondholders still had not received interest payment by a Monday deadline Asia time, Reuters reported citing sources.


    Yields on Chinese junk-rated dollar bonds surged 291 basis points to 17.54% last week, the highest level in about a decade, according to a Bloomberg index.


    “Evergrande’s contagion risk is now spreading across other issuers and sectors,” JPMorgan’s analysts said, demonstrating a rare talent for observing the obvious.

    And while today may have been “disastrous” it could get far, far worse if the market loses faith that Beijing will bail out the bond market.

    Other massive losers include:
        • Xinyuan Real Estate
        • China Aoyuan Group
        • Kaisa Group
    ___

    While property is by definition domestic. How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports? Firms that may have been able to use product diversity to de-risk are stuck with two bad plays in hand.

    There do not seem to be any good options on either side of the Pacific. Each individual decision may have made sense by itself, but they are combining badly. All of the synergy from wielding Chinese Coronavirus as a tool of politics is now piling up in an incredibly dangerous way.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-chinese-port-slammed-worst-traffic-jam-august-amid-tropical-cyclones

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-disastrous-day-all-hell-breaks-loose-chinas-bond-markets

     

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @A123

    First, I’d like to thank you for suggesting an open thread, and thank AK for starting the thread.

    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Almost Missouri
    @A123

    Thanks.


    How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports?
     
    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?

    Replies: @A123

  4. AK,

    Could you start comment threads here to leave comments about specific Substack entries, tweets, interesting items from your blog roll, etc.?

    I would image that it would only take a few minutes to start each tread here, and would require a lot less work than maintaining a discord, forum, etc.

    Would Ron be ok with you starting comment threads here occasionally?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Not Raul

    Thanks for the idea.

    But I don't really see how this would be in the interests of either myself (less traffic and commenting at my Substack), or to The Unz Review (parasitizing on its commenting system for content located elsewhere).

    That said, if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I'd be perfectly happy with that.


    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.
     
    I agree. I also think all these logistical problems are sooner bullish than bearish. Pent up demand bursting through so strongly that infrastructure of c.2019 is struggling to cope.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Weaver

  5. @A123
    AK -- Many thanks.

    There we're a couple of interesting items related to China that did not fit in your "goodbye" thread.
    ____

    The Pacific Container Shipping issue gets more complex: (1)


    The number of container ships at anchor or drifting at one of the busiest ports in China has jumped to the highest level since August, indicating supply chain disruptions will continue into the holiday season. Right now is the critical period where US importers build inventory for Christmas shopping. If they fail to do so, expect shortages of popular consumer goods.

    China's Yantian port in Shenzhen has had its fair share of issues this past summer, primarily due to a COVID outbreak forcing one of its terminals to shutter operations. Since then, the terminal has reopened.

    But now, the port has ceased container handling operations after the Chinese weather authorities issued cyclone alerts. Bloomberg's vessel tracking data shows at least 67 ships are currently queued outside Yantian, the highest since 26 August.
     

    Part of the overall problems seems to be that container owners are trying to rush TEU's back to China to capture the currently very high China to US pricing. They placed their empty containers on the fastest option available.

    As a consequence, U.S. export goods in train cars and truck trailers are still occupying those as temporary storage. These full transport options are thus:
        • Unavailable to hold new unloaded cargo.
        • Fully occupied limited Western holding space.
    As more vehicle transport becomes "storage" the lack of transport capacity becomes worse. It feels like we have already reached a tipping point due to the lack of empty containers in the U.S.

    Backlog off Long Beach / Los Angeles will continue to rise, because there is no way to get unloaded containers out of the port... Because there are no empty containers to free up vehicles for that cargo.
    ____

    At the same time China has a separate problem with property developers going into full financial contagion: (2)


    China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball on Monday as Evergrande was set to miss its third round of (offshore) bond payments in as many weeks and rival Modern Land became the latest scrambling to delay deadlines.

    Having already suffered the fastest drop on record, Chinese junk bond markets - where property developer issuers dominate - were routed once again as fears about fast-spreading contagion in the $5 trillion sector, which drives a sizable chunk of the Chinese economy, continued to savage sentiment. Meanwhile, China Evergrande Group's offshore bondholders still had not received interest payment by a Monday deadline Asia time, Reuters reported citing sources.

    ...
    Yields on Chinese junk-rated dollar bonds surged 291 basis points to 17.54% last week, the highest level in about a decade, according to a Bloomberg index.

    ...
    "Evergrande's contagion risk is now spreading across other issuers and sectors," JPMorgan's analysts said, demonstrating a rare talent for observing the obvious.

    And while today may have been "disastrous" it could get far, far worse if the market loses faith that Beijing will bail out the bond market.
     

    Other massive losers include:
        • Xinyuan Real Estate
        • China Aoyuan Group
        • Kaisa Group
    ___

    While property is by definition domestic. How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports? Firms that may have been able to use product diversity to de-risk are stuck with two bad plays in hand.

    There do not seem to be any good options on either side of the Pacific. Each individual decision may have made sense by itself, but they are combining badly. All of the synergy from wielding Chinese Coronavirus as a tool of politics is now piling up in an incredibly dangerous way.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-chinese-port-slammed-worst-traffic-jam-august-amid-tropical-cyclones

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-disastrous-day-all-hell-breaks-loose-chinas-bond-markets

     
    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/chinajunk%20bond%20index.jpg

    Replies: @Not Raul, @Almost Missouri

    First, I’d like to thank you for suggesting an open thread, and thank AK for starting the thread.

    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Not Raul


    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.
     

    You can find out of the way places to stash empty containers. Also, every year has deceased containers due to accident or simple wear & tear. Wait, and market forces will eventually fix a glut.
    ___

    This problem more vexing. It is more akin to downtown vehicle gridlock. Each component task needs to unload before it can load.

    Because the U.S. runs a trade deficit the overall system 'slack' was always a large number of lightly loaded containers available on the West Coast. Volume was so available, scrap for recycling shipped overseas.

    20/20 hindsight, no one was monitoring the 'slack'. Everyone made the same, financially sound, call at the same time. All of the 'slack' left the U.S. as 'empty' containers. When the 'empty' containers come back from China they will be 'full', join the gridlocked queue, and multiply gridlock pressure on the nonexistent 'slack'.
    ____

    There is no standard market force to break the gridlock.

    Conceptually, the solution is to refuse lucrative contracts, and instead eat giant losses to move empty containers to the U.S. West Coast thus recreating the 'slack' pool. However, the problem is diffuse. There is no obvious responsible party to pay for 'slack' replenishment.

    Fairly solid rumor has it that the U.S. railroad consortium looked at moving empty, theoretically Atlantic, containers to the West Coast. However, they could not make it work:
    --A-- U.S. Domestic rail asset owners, such as GATX, have their own contracts and there is no pool of containers to lease.
    --B-- So many full loads are stuck at Western terminals, goods for Pacific export would have to reverse flow East to free up space.

    Fixing the Problem is in everyone's best interest.
    Paying to fix the Problem is in no one's interest.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Not Raul

  6. Any longstanding commenters want to take this opportunity to let the mask drop, to stop the charade, and admit that they were really Indians the whole time?

    [MORE]

    “Polish” Perspective? “Thulean” Friend? Enoch Powell? Dmitry? Reiner_tor? “German”_reader? Hyperborean? “Swedish” Family? “Blinky” Bill? “Yellowface” Anon? “Kent” Nationalist? (Sorry, if I missed anyone.)

    Okay, last time I will make that joke!

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill, mal
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @songbird

    It's worse than you imagined.


    https://youtu.be/39eUSRVDsdU?t=22

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @songbird

    UR debates about crypto-Indians:

    https://torako.wakarimasen.moe/file/torako/biz/image/1614/18/1614184518694.jpg

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @Yevardian
    @songbird

    Guilty, another typically self-hating pajeet here. Some of my fondest memories involve squatting together on a busy street with the boys, answering to the call of nature, enjoying my homeland's natural smells.

    Replies: @Kuru

    , @sher singh
    @songbird


    (Joining now requires jumping through hoops that will be unrealistic for most people)
     
    Not anymore, you just install the Port application (Fag Os, Linux & Win 10) & it handles the rest||

    https://urbit.org/getting-started#port

    Substack comment is easier to create threads ie N-Towers. Discord u can just remake when it bans.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ
  7. Pretty crazy that California has banned the sale of small gas engines.

    Can only suppose it is a case of legislators not using or understanding tools. Many are undoubtedly female and/or hire Mexicans to do anything involving sweat.

    Probably will increase the exodus. Maybe, by design?

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @songbird

    My grandpa worked as a groundskeeper, and I never saw him use a blower. Real men use rakes.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Barbarossa, @songbird

    , @Barbarossa
    @songbird

    I just read an article on that. Thanks for the heads up on that, as I missed it. That's truly crazy.

    I've tried some really good battery powered chainsaws (Makita has an excellent one, which matched the power of gas with a sharp chain and a small bar.), but there you aren't going to go logging with them. Now all the poor bastard loggers are going to have to go out of state to buy their saws (shipping in will be prohibited?).

    I especially like the prohibition on generators. Since when the power goes out...Oh shoot.
    That's also going to be killer for any remote or off-grid situations. I have solar off-grid but I'm quite reliant on my generator to keep my batteries topped off through the cloudy winter.

    Perhaps they can implement a green solution. Mexicans turning huge flywheels powering electrical dynamos!

    , @SafeNow
    @songbird

    Newsom’s ban on gas leaf blowers will be effective in 2024, or later, if the air resources board determines that such a target date is not feasible. In other words, Newsom left himself enough room for the ban to never go into effect. I live in California.

    Replies: @songbird

  8. Disinformation

    Re: https://www.calvertjournal.com/articles/show/13173/russian-american-jewish-identity-diaspora-immigrant-literature

    Excerpt –

    Later, in the USSR, Russian Jews had their Russianness erased, with their passports describing them exclusively as Jews.

    *****

    Elsewhere, there’re accounts of some Soviet Jews listing a different nationality for reasons probably not so radically different from how some Jews in the West decided to distance themselves from a Jewish identity.

    I’m not pro-Soviet. That said, the USSR offered the option of a Jewish identity on the census. Had this not been made available, there would be outcries of denying a people’s existence.

    In the USSR, having a Jewish identity made it easier for people to leave that country c/o Jackson-Vanik. A friend of a friend was a Jewish INS case attorney, who said that a number of Soviet applicants told stories, which likely over-hyped a Jewish background and experiences of prejudice, in order to stand a better chance of gaining US citizenship.

    Socioeconomically, Soviet Jews did comparatively well. With greater freedoms, post-Soviet Russia has a noticeable Jewish presence.

  9. @Not Raul
    AK,

    Could you start comment threads here to leave comments about specific Substack entries, tweets, interesting items from your blog roll, etc.?

    I would image that it would only take a few minutes to start each tread here, and would require a lot less work than maintaining a discord, forum, etc.

    Would Ron be ok with you starting comment threads here occasionally?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Thanks for the idea.

    But I don’t really see how this would be in the interests of either myself (less traffic and commenting at my Substack), or to The Unz Review (parasitizing on its commenting system for content located elsewhere).

    That said, if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I’d be perfectly happy with that.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.

    I agree. I also think all these logistical problems are sooner bullish than bearish. Pent up demand bursting through so strongly that infrastructure of c.2019 is struggling to cope.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin


    if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I’d be perfectly happy with that.
     
    This ought to make almost everybody happy!

    The Karlin comment section is high value and life-support for it would be great. Zombie Russian reactionaries. You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.

    Replies: @Archimedes, @A123

    , @Weaver
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There is a benefit to your posting here: Rednecks like me, German supporters of Hitler, East Europeans, Jews, and Russians all talking together.

    Usually we split up on the Internet. At least a few of the posters here seem to not be alphabet agents or other fakes. Furthermore, if Europe continues collapsing, and if Putin can’t find a worthy successor, Europeans in the world might one day find ourselves all in a common situation.

    It’s like Genghis Khan uniting his people to be strong. Europeans might not like one another, but things might become bad enough that Europeans have to communicate a bit more.

    -

    Regarding shipping containers, partly there are ships waiting on California ports, ships full of containers. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-truth-behind-247-port-operations-pledge

    And there’s a trucker shortage in the US to take goods from the ports, but that wouldn’t impact containers.

  10. It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi

    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) “In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?” (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) “In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?” (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    • Disagree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Troll: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Thomm


    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi
     

    Thank you for making the effort to post such an exhaustive, valuable and *powerful* list.

    I don't recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles. But be sure to keep up your survey!

    I suppose one could make a 'case' that the long-term consequences of the latter is much more harmful than the other. If one assumes the frequency of pedophilia the same in homosexuals as heterosexuals.

    Replies: @Thomm, @iffen

    , @AKAHorace
    @Thomm


    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.
     
    There is so little support for the far right and you are worrying about this ? If the alt right gets the support of anyone, gay socialists included, so what ?

    Replies: @Pericles

    , @Pericles
    @Thomm

    Lol, speaking of the secretly Indian, here he is. Well, not so secretly to be sure.

    Above we can, by fortuitous chance, view the deliverable that Priyeet has assembled for his minimum wage employers at the ADL. Looks like you will have to type it into Excel yourself though, Heidi. Enjoy!

    Please do the needful and move my name to top of list, by the way.

    Replies: @Thomm

    , @Barbarossa
    @Thomm

    I think we need an "EWWW!" button...

    Replies: @Thomm

    , @Truth
    @Thomm

    Uh, Oh, Big Thomm is Callin' names. You can't ignore the questions now!

    Replies: @Thomm

    , @Tor597
    @Thomm

    lol

    This is the most Indian comment ever.

    Replies: @Thomm

  11. @songbird
    Any longstanding commenters want to take this opportunity to let the mask drop, to stop the charade, and admit that they were really Indians the whole time?

    "Polish" Perspective? "Thulean" Friend? Enoch Powell? Dmitry? Reiner_tor? "German"_reader? Hyperborean? "Swedish" Family? "Blinky" Bill? "Yellowface" Anon? "Kent" Nationalist? (Sorry, if I missed anyone.)


    Okay, last time I will make that joke!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian, @sher singh

    It’s worse than you imagined.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: songbird
  12. @songbird
    Pretty crazy that California has banned the sale of small gas engines.

    Can only suppose it is a case of legislators not using or understanding tools. Many are undoubtedly female and/or hire Mexicans to do anything involving sweat.

    Probably will increase the exodus. Maybe, by design?

    Replies: @Not Raul, @Barbarossa, @SafeNow

    My grandpa worked as a groundskeeper, and I never saw him use a blower. Real men use rakes.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Not Raul

    The gas exhaust can't be healthy.

    , @Barbarossa
    @Not Raul

    Yeah, leaf blowers turn an inoffensive and healthful activity into something as obnoxious as possible...because engine.
    And I build for a living, so it's not like I'm against power tools.

    , @songbird
    @Not Raul

    I could live without leaf blowers, but a general ban on small gas motors seems insane to me. (Especially chainsaws and generators.) A lot of Amish allow gas motors - if whatever it is doesn't have powered wheels.

    I've speculated that the design of gas mowers has gotten worse over the years. Now suspect that is due to previous CA laws.

  13. @A123
    AK -- Many thanks.

    There we're a couple of interesting items related to China that did not fit in your "goodbye" thread.
    ____

    The Pacific Container Shipping issue gets more complex: (1)


    The number of container ships at anchor or drifting at one of the busiest ports in China has jumped to the highest level since August, indicating supply chain disruptions will continue into the holiday season. Right now is the critical period where US importers build inventory for Christmas shopping. If they fail to do so, expect shortages of popular consumer goods.

    China's Yantian port in Shenzhen has had its fair share of issues this past summer, primarily due to a COVID outbreak forcing one of its terminals to shutter operations. Since then, the terminal has reopened.

    But now, the port has ceased container handling operations after the Chinese weather authorities issued cyclone alerts. Bloomberg's vessel tracking data shows at least 67 ships are currently queued outside Yantian, the highest since 26 August.
     

    Part of the overall problems seems to be that container owners are trying to rush TEU's back to China to capture the currently very high China to US pricing. They placed their empty containers on the fastest option available.

    As a consequence, U.S. export goods in train cars and truck trailers are still occupying those as temporary storage. These full transport options are thus:
        • Unavailable to hold new unloaded cargo.
        • Fully occupied limited Western holding space.
    As more vehicle transport becomes "storage" the lack of transport capacity becomes worse. It feels like we have already reached a tipping point due to the lack of empty containers in the U.S.

    Backlog off Long Beach / Los Angeles will continue to rise, because there is no way to get unloaded containers out of the port... Because there are no empty containers to free up vehicles for that cargo.
    ____

    At the same time China has a separate problem with property developers going into full financial contagion: (2)


    China property firms bonds were hit with another wrecking ball on Monday as Evergrande was set to miss its third round of (offshore) bond payments in as many weeks and rival Modern Land became the latest scrambling to delay deadlines.

    Having already suffered the fastest drop on record, Chinese junk bond markets - where property developer issuers dominate - were routed once again as fears about fast-spreading contagion in the $5 trillion sector, which drives a sizable chunk of the Chinese economy, continued to savage sentiment. Meanwhile, China Evergrande Group's offshore bondholders still had not received interest payment by a Monday deadline Asia time, Reuters reported citing sources.

    ...
    Yields on Chinese junk-rated dollar bonds surged 291 basis points to 17.54% last week, the highest level in about a decade, according to a Bloomberg index.

    ...
    "Evergrande's contagion risk is now spreading across other issuers and sectors," JPMorgan's analysts said, demonstrating a rare talent for observing the obvious.

    And while today may have been "disastrous" it could get far, far worse if the market loses faith that Beijing will bail out the bond market.
     

    Other massive losers include:
        • Xinyuan Real Estate
        • China Aoyuan Group
        • Kaisa Group
    ___

    While property is by definition domestic. How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports? Firms that may have been able to use product diversity to de-risk are stuck with two bad plays in hand.

    There do not seem to be any good options on either side of the Pacific. Each individual decision may have made sense by itself, but they are combining badly. All of the synergy from wielding Chinese Coronavirus as a tool of politics is now piling up in an incredibly dangerous way.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-chinese-port-slammed-worst-traffic-jam-august-amid-tropical-cyclones

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-disastrous-day-all-hell-breaks-loose-chinas-bond-markets

     
    https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/chinajunk%20bond%20index.jpg

    Replies: @Not Raul, @Almost Missouri

    Thanks.

    How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports?

    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?
     
    I defer to those tracking the Crypto market.

    Instinctively, the CCP cutoff of Crypto to save energy already pulled the handle. Secondary or Tertiary effects from holders of already illiquid assets do not immediately spring to my mind as a key risk.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  14. @Not Raul
    @songbird

    My grandpa worked as a groundskeeper, and I never saw him use a blower. Real men use rakes.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Barbarossa, @songbird

    The gas exhaust can’t be healthy.

    • Agree: Not Raul, RadicalCenter
  15. This Powerful Take from the other side deserves to be reposted here.

    [MORE]

    Maoist Race Denialist

    I deal with these Chinese and Korean ship yards and module yards as part of my current day job.

    My experiences with the Scots are from working on the mega LNG & Iron ore/coal jobs in Australia, while I also worked in the US, Canada & Japan so I am also familiar with American and Japanese engineers/mod yard workers. My experiences are at a project manager/construction manager/engineering manager level so I think my views/insights are pretty unique and realistic, especially as there isn’t many Chinese speaking expats at my level in this industry at this scale (20mil+ man hours, 100,000 ton+ steel, 3+years from FEED to handover).

    I am fortunate enough to work around the time when China started to evolve into this industrial behemoth that she is now, here is how I saw its yard capability and capacity grow over my career so far. When this whole modularization thing started in the early/mid 2000s, the industry was still like the good old days where we stick built everything. The most we would do previously was pre fabricate steel sections or get pipes spooled and get them blasted and primed and then sent to site for erection. In Australia, lots of small pre fab shops were thriving at this time due to the resources boom, and attracted a lot of UK talents down under. Lots of these Scottish engineers and welders were from the naval yards, or the north sea and yeah their standards were pretty high on the higher end stuff like bisalloy or HY80 etc. The Chinese at that time were pretty ordinary, I would say inferior to other Asian yards such as Philippines or Indonesia/Thailand, let alone South Korea. The first big modules I could remember of were from South Korea, 2000 ton pieces going to Gove for the Alcan Alumina refinery in Northern Territory in around 2005/2006.

    Around 2007/2008, we started exploring using China as a low cost center for steel fabrication. We didn’t even consider modularization because the infrastructure just wasn’t there at the time. We started off in Qingdao, Dalian, Tianjin and Guangzhou cause that were the only ones that ticked the boxes. The Chinese yards were also importing other Western know how at around that time, such as Conoco Philips etc to set up module yards to service the offshore rigs in Bohai bay (Tianjin) and South China Sea (Shekou). Pretty much at the start we were using the Chinese as purely labor, and staffed every supervision/management position with expats, especially QA/QC. Funny how even running it that way we still managed to keep costs to less than 50% of doing that in Australia. When we received the steel at the other end, we usually have to spend another 30% extra to fix the defects from China, so the overall savings were around 20%, but 20% of a \$300mil package was still a lot of money!

    By 2011/2012, we started rolling bigger modules out of China, and had more locations to operate out of, significantly increasing capacity. We got to couple thousand tons modules/ bins for WICET in Gladstone and the BHP jobs in the Pilbara, and the defects were beginning to reduce to around 20% of their package cost. Kind of around this time, local fab shops in the western world started dying due to being uncompetitive cost wise. Only a few niche ones or ones dedicated to maintenance/ preassembly survived (plus subsidized ones).

    Come 2013/2014, with LNG all the rage, yard capacity around Asia got stretched, and around this time the Chinese yard got a go. The likes of Bomesc and COOEC yards in Tianjin and Qingdao got a piece of the pie on the Wheatstone and Ichthys LNG, with the rest going to Philippines / Thailand and Indonesia. I think this really spurt the Chinese ship yard competency. With these megaprojects, there is no way you could staff them all with expats, and so you ended up hiring some of the local engineers and supervisors at the front line level, overseen by expats. Also, with the contract model, its no longer foreign companies hiring the Chinese yards space and labor, but contracting to these yards directly, hence training the front line and middle management of these Chinese yard. You also have these global QA/QC firms that started growing in scale in China, like BV/Caltrop etc, and hiring/developing/training local inspectors. All these enabled massive improvements in quality and management of projects within China, and significantly increased the talent pool.

    All the while at the same time, the power plant and chemical plant boom is also happening within China in those inland coal provinces, so you now have a huge talent pool of ASME/API/AWE coded welders with an essentially non stop conveyor of projects to hone their skills on. Especially these power projects ones, the exotics welding on the HP steam and the HRSG lines are all transferable back to marine ship/off shore rig construction. Those HUGE pressure vessels in the chemical plants also helps. (submarine hulls) With so much work, lots of mini yards also popped up all over the place. They could be building plate girders one month, or wind turbine towers the next, further developing the supplier network.

    The likes of Sany and Xugong also took advantage of these market space and expanded/developed in the space normally occupied by Liebherr or Manitowoc, offering far cheaper domestic crane and construction equipment.

    Chinese SPMT were especially cool, terminating Mammoet’s dominance in this space. So by the time these LNG module projects ended, circa 2016, I would say Chinese yard have progressed beyond the other South East Asian yards in terms of quality, and absolutely kills them in price. Still not up to Korean standards in terms of quality and efficiency though. Safety aspects has also improved in these times, due to the type of clients they have. Back in the likes of Australia, US, the labor quality started to deteriorate (old hands retiring, militant unionism), project management competencies/culture became more accounting/contractual rather than building the work on time/budget, to the detriment of most of the project, as we can see in those project cost overruns everywhere.

    The next wave kind of hit with the rise of private module yards in China. (2016-) They been around a while before, but with the order books increasing, the scraps started to fall out of the likes of COOEC and CSSC’s mouth and into these private firms, and these guys with their new operating models really started hitting it out of the park. The operational management in these yards are more efficient, and innovations aren’t stifled as these guys tend to bend over backwards for their client and accepts using client systems. They usually end up adopting what works for the next projects. It is kind of scary what can be achieved with competent, hard working Chinese craft workers, being managed under contemporary western management org structures (i.e. not rigid top down hierarchal, nor siloed like the Japanese), and with the QA/QC and logistics being managed by the latest systems. My last couple in China has been absolutely textbook success especially when compared with its contemporary. (Italian/ Mexican/South Korean). The rework was minimal, (0.1%!). No one will ever be competitive against the Chinese unless the tariffs goes up.

    Traditional bottlenecks such as labor or material shortages can be resolved much much quicker than in any other country. I can bring on thousands of qualified welders within months just by tapping other labor pools from the neighboring city, or province if need be. If I have enough tonnages, I can even get the mill to do a batch just for my project if its super urgent and I have the \$, that is of course after exhausting my existing supply network! Of course there are still bottle necks in some specialist areas but those are becoming far and few between. Also, just like in other countries, there are lots of useless people in management positions, so there are many poor ship yards/ module yards. Just that China is so huge that when you put the cream of the crops together, there is still more of them than the rest of the world combined…..

    When dealing with Chinese ship yard construction competency, the changes are just so rapid. From mediocre to what we have now kind of happened only in the last decade, and it happened due to a combination of factors that probably won’t happen in any other country again. Its kind of hard to get used to and will take a while for the perception to change. The fact that there are so many potential locations to build all the sub modules, the supply network, the logistics and hardware for bigger modules, the huge modern yard facilities and spaces and the surge capability for both labor and plant, there is just no competition.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSgf-1vJummD5JlSP2kKE05DM5fnCKpgk4x8A&usqp.jpg

    See you guys on the other side!

  16. @Not Raul
    @A123

    First, I’d like to thank you for suggesting an open thread, and thank AK for starting the thread.

    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.

    Replies: @A123

    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.

    You can find out of the way places to stash empty containers. Also, every year has deceased containers due to accident or simple wear & tear. Wait, and market forces will eventually fix a glut.
    ___

    This problem more vexing. It is more akin to downtown vehicle gridlock. Each component task needs to unload before it can load.

    Because the U.S. runs a trade deficit the overall system ‘slack’ was always a large number of lightly loaded containers available on the West Coast. Volume was so available, scrap for recycling shipped overseas.

    20/20 hindsight, no one was monitoring the ‘slack’. Everyone made the same, financially sound, call at the same time. All of the ‘slack’ left the U.S. as ’empty’ containers. When the ’empty’ containers come back from China they will be ‘full’, join the gridlocked queue, and multiply gridlock pressure on the nonexistent ‘slack’.
    ____

    There is no standard market force to break the gridlock.

    Conceptually, the solution is to refuse lucrative contracts, and instead eat giant losses to move empty containers to the U.S. West Coast thus recreating the ‘slack’ pool. However, the problem is diffuse. There is no obvious responsible party to pay for ‘slack’ replenishment.

    Fairly solid rumor has it that the U.S. railroad consortium looked at moving empty, theoretically Atlantic, containers to the West Coast. However, they could not make it work:
    –A– U.S. Domestic rail asset owners, such as GATX, have their own contracts and there is no pool of containers to lease.
    –B– So many full loads are stuck at Western terminals, goods for Pacific export would have to reverse flow East to free up space.

    Fixing the Problem is in everyone’s best interest.
    Paying to fix the Problem is in no one’s interest.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    @A123

    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

  17. @Blinky Bill
    This Powerful Take from the other side deserves to be reposted here.

    Maoist Race Denialist

    I deal with these Chinese and Korean ship yards and module yards as part of my current day job.

    My experiences with the Scots are from working on the mega LNG & Iron ore/coal jobs in Australia, while I also worked in the US, Canada & Japan so I am also familiar with American and Japanese engineers/mod yard workers. My experiences are at a project manager/construction manager/engineering manager level so I think my views/insights are pretty unique and realistic, especially as there isn't many Chinese speaking expats at my level in this industry at this scale (20mil+ man hours, 100,000 ton+ steel, 3+years from FEED to handover).

    I am fortunate enough to work around the time when China started to evolve into this industrial behemoth that she is now, here is how I saw its yard capability and capacity grow over my career so far. When this whole modularization thing started in the early/mid 2000s, the industry was still like the good old days where we stick built everything. The most we would do previously was pre fabricate steel sections or get pipes spooled and get them blasted and primed and then sent to site for erection. In Australia, lots of small pre fab shops were thriving at this time due to the resources boom, and attracted a lot of UK talents down under. Lots of these Scottish engineers and welders were from the naval yards, or the north sea and yeah their standards were pretty high on the higher end stuff like bisalloy or HY80 etc. The Chinese at that time were pretty ordinary, I would say inferior to other Asian yards such as Philippines or Indonesia/Thailand, let alone South Korea. The first big modules I could remember of were from South Korea, 2000 ton pieces going to Gove for the Alcan Alumina refinery in Northern Territory in around 2005/2006.

    Around 2007/2008, we started exploring using China as a low cost center for steel fabrication. We didn't even consider modularization because the infrastructure just wasn't there at the time. We started off in Qingdao, Dalian, Tianjin and Guangzhou cause that were the only ones that ticked the boxes. The Chinese yards were also importing other Western know how at around that time, such as Conoco Philips etc to set up module yards to service the offshore rigs in Bohai bay (Tianjin) and South China Sea (Shekou). Pretty much at the start we were using the Chinese as purely labor, and staffed every supervision/management position with expats, especially QA/QC. Funny how even running it that way we still managed to keep costs to less than 50% of doing that in Australia. When we received the steel at the other end, we usually have to spend another 30% extra to fix the defects from China, so the overall savings were around 20%, but 20% of a $300mil package was still a lot of money!

    By 2011/2012, we started rolling bigger modules out of China, and had more locations to operate out of, significantly increasing capacity. We got to couple thousand tons modules/ bins for WICET in Gladstone and the BHP jobs in the Pilbara, and the defects were beginning to reduce to around 20% of their package cost. Kind of around this time, local fab shops in the western world started dying due to being uncompetitive cost wise. Only a few niche ones or ones dedicated to maintenance/ preassembly survived (plus subsidized ones).

    Come 2013/2014, with LNG all the rage, yard capacity around Asia got stretched, and around this time the Chinese yard got a go. The likes of Bomesc and COOEC yards in Tianjin and Qingdao got a piece of the pie on the Wheatstone and Ichthys LNG, with the rest going to Philippines / Thailand and Indonesia. I think this really spurt the Chinese ship yard competency. With these megaprojects, there is no way you could staff them all with expats, and so you ended up hiring some of the local engineers and supervisors at the front line level, overseen by expats. Also, with the contract model, its no longer foreign companies hiring the Chinese yards space and labor, but contracting to these yards directly, hence training the front line and middle management of these Chinese yard. You also have these global QA/QC firms that started growing in scale in China, like BV/Caltrop etc, and hiring/developing/training local inspectors. All these enabled massive improvements in quality and management of projects within China, and significantly increased the talent pool.

    All the while at the same time, the power plant and chemical plant boom is also happening within China in those inland coal provinces, so you now have a huge talent pool of ASME/API/AWE coded welders with an essentially non stop conveyor of projects to hone their skills on. Especially these power projects ones, the exotics welding on the HP steam and the HRSG lines are all transferable back to marine ship/off shore rig construction. Those HUGE pressure vessels in the chemical plants also helps. (submarine hulls) With so much work, lots of mini yards also popped up all over the place. They could be building plate girders one month, or wind turbine towers the next, further developing the supplier network.

    The likes of Sany and Xugong also took advantage of these market space and expanded/developed in the space normally occupied by Liebherr or Manitowoc, offering far cheaper domestic crane and construction equipment.

    Chinese SPMT were especially cool, terminating Mammoet's dominance in this space. So by the time these LNG module projects ended, circa 2016, I would say Chinese yard have progressed beyond the other South East Asian yards in terms of quality, and absolutely kills them in price. Still not up to Korean standards in terms of quality and efficiency though. Safety aspects has also improved in these times, due to the type of clients they have. Back in the likes of Australia, US, the labor quality started to deteriorate (old hands retiring, militant unionism), project management competencies/culture became more accounting/contractual rather than building the work on time/budget, to the detriment of most of the project, as we can see in those project cost overruns everywhere.

    The next wave kind of hit with the rise of private module yards in China. (2016-) They been around a while before, but with the order books increasing, the scraps started to fall out of the likes of COOEC and CSSC's mouth and into these private firms, and these guys with their new operating models really started hitting it out of the park. The operational management in these yards are more efficient, and innovations aren't stifled as these guys tend to bend over backwards for their client and accepts using client systems. They usually end up adopting what works for the next projects. It is kind of scary what can be achieved with competent, hard working Chinese craft workers, being managed under contemporary western management org structures (i.e. not rigid top down hierarchal, nor siloed like the Japanese), and with the QA/QC and logistics being managed by the latest systems. My last couple in China has been absolutely textbook success especially when compared with its contemporary. (Italian/ Mexican/South Korean). The rework was minimal, (0.1%!). No one will ever be competitive against the Chinese unless the tariffs goes up.

    Traditional bottlenecks such as labor or material shortages can be resolved much much quicker than in any other country. I can bring on thousands of qualified welders within months just by tapping other labor pools from the neighboring city, or province if need be. If I have enough tonnages, I can even get the mill to do a batch just for my project if its super urgent and I have the $, that is of course after exhausting my existing supply network! Of course there are still bottle necks in some specialist areas but those are becoming far and few between. Also, just like in other countries, there are lots of useless people in management positions, so there are many poor ship yards/ module yards. Just that China is so huge that when you put the cream of the crops together, there is still more of them than the rest of the world combined.....

    When dealing with Chinese ship yard construction competency, the changes are just so rapid. From mediocre to what we have now kind of happened only in the last decade, and it happened due to a combination of factors that probably won't happen in any other country again. Its kind of hard to get used to and will take a while for the perception to change. The fact that there are so many potential locations to build all the sub modules, the supply network, the logistics and hardware for bigger modules, the huge modern yard facilities and spaces and the surge capability for both labor and plant, there is just no competition.
     

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    See you guys on the other side!

  18. @songbird
    Any longstanding commenters want to take this opportunity to let the mask drop, to stop the charade, and admit that they were really Indians the whole time?

    "Polish" Perspective? "Thulean" Friend? Enoch Powell? Dmitry? Reiner_tor? "German"_reader? Hyperborean? "Swedish" Family? "Blinky" Bill? "Yellowface" Anon? "Kent" Nationalist? (Sorry, if I missed anyone.)


    Okay, last time I will make that joke!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian, @sher singh

    UR debates about crypto-Indians:

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Anatoly Karlin

    1. Thanks for the laugh and 2. I am really going to laugh for a good while if it turned out that you were Indian (and not Jewish as some commenters seem to obsess).

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh

  19. @A123
    @Not Raul


    I remember reading a few years ago about there being a glut of shipping containers, and ports and other logistics hubs running out of space to cram unclaimed containers.

    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.
     

    You can find out of the way places to stash empty containers. Also, every year has deceased containers due to accident or simple wear & tear. Wait, and market forces will eventually fix a glut.
    ___

    This problem more vexing. It is more akin to downtown vehicle gridlock. Each component task needs to unload before it can load.

    Because the U.S. runs a trade deficit the overall system 'slack' was always a large number of lightly loaded containers available on the West Coast. Volume was so available, scrap for recycling shipped overseas.

    20/20 hindsight, no one was monitoring the 'slack'. Everyone made the same, financially sound, call at the same time. All of the 'slack' left the U.S. as 'empty' containers. When the 'empty' containers come back from China they will be 'full', join the gridlocked queue, and multiply gridlock pressure on the nonexistent 'slack'.
    ____

    There is no standard market force to break the gridlock.

    Conceptually, the solution is to refuse lucrative contracts, and instead eat giant losses to move empty containers to the U.S. West Coast thus recreating the 'slack' pool. However, the problem is diffuse. There is no obvious responsible party to pay for 'slack' replenishment.

    Fairly solid rumor has it that the U.S. railroad consortium looked at moving empty, theoretically Atlantic, containers to the West Coast. However, they could not make it work:
    --A-- U.S. Domestic rail asset owners, such as GATX, have their own contracts and there is no pool of containers to lease.
    --B-- So many full loads are stuck at Western terminals, goods for Pacific export would have to reverse flow East to free up space.

    Fixing the Problem is in everyone's best interest.
    Paying to fix the Problem is in no one's interest.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Not Raul

    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Not Raul

    Chinese companies currently top the list of the biggest shipping container manufacturers. They are about 85% of the world’s total production of shipping containers and have been making a record 500,000 containers a month, up from 200,000 previously.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTtkhPhjJBrUagdmAvMP-x6QI8EjSRRDqVORg&usqp.jpg

    Replies: @A123

    , @A123
    @Not Raul


    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.
     
    The manufacturers for new containers are scaled to primarily replacement. Adding an extra shift would be expensive. Obtaining steel, primer, coatings, etc., also expensive. A new 40' standard container will be $5,000+ and potentially have significant lead time depending on raw material on hand. A container without door hinges is useless.

    If you build new containers anywhere but the West Coast, how are you going to get them to the bottleneck? You want to deliver them by truck? Would that be a truck that already has a load? Or, one that is broken and cannot be fixed for lack of parts (see below).

    The inability to deliver goods is directly eroding the systematic capability to deliver goods.
    ____

    How many containers are needed to replenish the 'slack'? A good question. A single freighter is ~16,000 TEU = 8,000 standard 40' containers. Providing enough empty containers to fully load one freighter is $5,000 x 8,000 = $4,000,000.

    Gridlock is a tricky operational issue. Are 8,000 containers enough?

    I honestly do not know the answer. But, 8,000 seems far too tiny to replace the missing 'slack'.
    ____

    Despite everything I just said. You may have part of the answer that will eventually work.

    The cost to move one container from Asia to the U.S. is over $7,000 and the cost of a new container made in the U.S. is less at $5,000. Will highly motivated exporters obtain and somehow move new containers to the West Coast so they can unload trapped goods off of truck tractors and rail cars?

    That does align to a market mechanism. However it is not a fast solution and needs tens of millions of dollars on new containers... that will inevitably become the next glut.

    PEACE 😇


    https://twitter.com/K1NGRK9/status/1441762543165345800?s=20
  20. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Not Raul

    Thanks for the idea.

    But I don't really see how this would be in the interests of either myself (less traffic and commenting at my Substack), or to The Unz Review (parasitizing on its commenting system for content located elsewhere).

    That said, if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I'd be perfectly happy with that.


    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.
     
    I agree. I also think all these logistical problems are sooner bullish than bearish. Pent up demand bursting through so strongly that infrastructure of c.2019 is struggling to cope.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Weaver

    if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I’d be perfectly happy with that.

    This ought to make almost everybody happy!

    The Karlin comment section is high value and life-support for it would be great. Zombie Russian reactionaries. You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.

    • Replies: @Archimedes
    @Emil Nikola Richard

    I was thinking Ron can move Karlin to the "Columnists" section and the posts will go to regular mods. Therefore there is no need for Karlin to do any up-keep on the site. The re-post probably can be automated. In a way this also creates an "air-gap" in case he fears of getting cancelled/hassled in Russia.

    , @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.
     
    I recommend Rasputin Imperial Stout.

    Whatever does not kill you, makes you stronger!

    PEACE 😇

     

    https://i1.wp.com/absolutebeer.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_0531_Old_Rasputin_Russian_Imperial_Stout_OG.jpg
  21. @Almost Missouri
    @A123

    Thanks.


    How many impacted firms are actually conglomerates that depend in part on exports?
     
    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?

    Replies: @A123

    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?

    I defer to those tracking the Crypto market.

    Instinctively, the CCP cutoff of Crypto to save energy already pulled the handle. Secondary or Tertiary effects from holders of already illiquid assets do not immediately spring to my mind as a key risk.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Tether FUD is gay (don't know if fake... maybe?... who cares - everything is a Ponzi now). It was around in force since last year, listening to it would have been a guaranteed road to the poorhouse.

    China banning crypto is unironically bullish. Stranded customers, unable to cash out, converted to Bitcoin and moved them from the exchanges. They're now forced hodlers. Weak hands shaken out at $41k by the China FUD, strong hands held to $56k.

  22. @Not Raul
    @A123

    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

    Chinese companies currently top the list of the biggest shipping container manufacturers. They are about 85% of the world’s total production of shipping containers and have been making a record 500,000 containers a month, up from 200,000 previously.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin, Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
    @Blinky Bill


    Chinese companies currently top the list of the biggest shipping container manufacturers. They are about 85% of the world’s total production of shipping containers and have been making a record 500,000 containers a month, up from 200,000 previously.
     
    Interesting, but the need is:

    'Empty' containers on the 'West Coast'.

    A Chinese container at $3,000 (60% of U.S.) plus the cost to move it to the U.S. over $7,000 runs net $10,000. This is twice the effective $5,000 cost of a U.S. built new container.

    Even if double cost 'empty' containers were routed to the U.S., how would they be unloaded to alleviate the bottleneck?
    -- Limited numbers mixed in with full containers would join the 'full' queue for weeks.
    -- It is hard to see how a 75%+ full freighter of 'empty' containers could be arranged.
    ___

    This does speak to the need for MAGA Reindustrialization. Making more real goods, such as containers, is a vital national security interest for the U.S. Only North American made containers can reach the congestion via ground to potentially cure the issue. Mexico and/or Canada might help, but I do not think either of them makes many shipping containers.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @David Davenport

  23. @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    Rumors are that a big chunk of Tether coin market cap is directly or indirectly in the Chinese property market, so might there be a crypto contagion from the Evergrande implosion too?
     
    I defer to those tracking the Crypto market.

    Instinctively, the CCP cutoff of Crypto to save energy already pulled the handle. Secondary or Tertiary effects from holders of already illiquid assets do not immediately spring to my mind as a key risk.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Tether FUD is gay (don’t know if fake… maybe?… who cares – everything is a Ponzi now). It was around in force since last year, listening to it would have been a guaranteed road to the poorhouse.

    China banning crypto is unironically bullish. Stranded customers, unable to cash out, converted to Bitcoin and moved them from the exchanges. They’re now forced hodlers. Weak hands shaken out at \$41k by the China FUD, strong hands held to \$56k.

    • Thanks: A123
  24. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin


    if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I’d be perfectly happy with that.
     
    This ought to make almost everybody happy!

    The Karlin comment section is high value and life-support for it would be great. Zombie Russian reactionaries. You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.

    Replies: @Archimedes, @A123

    I was thinking Ron can move Karlin to the “Columnists” section and the posts will go to regular mods. Therefore there is no need for Karlin to do any up-keep on the site. The re-post probably can be automated. In a way this also creates an “air-gap” in case he fears of getting cancelled/hassled in Russia.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter, Not Raul
  25. @Not Raul
    @A123

    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

    If I need containers, and I don’t have any available, I’ll buy new containers. Someone must be manufacturing new containers.

    The manufacturers for new containers are scaled to primarily replacement. Adding an extra shift would be expensive. Obtaining steel, primer, coatings, etc., also expensive. A new 40′ standard container will be \$5,000+ and potentially have significant lead time depending on raw material on hand. A container without door hinges is useless.

    If you build new containers anywhere but the West Coast, how are you going to get them to the bottleneck? You want to deliver them by truck? Would that be a truck that already has a load? Or, one that is broken and cannot be fixed for lack of parts (see below).

    The inability to deliver goods is directly eroding the systematic capability to deliver goods.
    ____

    How many containers are needed to replenish the ‘slack’? A good question. A single freighter is ~16,000 TEU = 8,000 standard 40′ containers. Providing enough empty containers to fully load one freighter is \$5,000 x 8,000 = \$4,000,000.

    Gridlock is a tricky operational issue. Are 8,000 containers enough?

    I honestly do not know the answer. But, 8,000 seems far too tiny to replace the missing ‘slack’.
    ____

    Despite everything I just said. You may have part of the answer that will eventually work.

    The cost to move one container from Asia to the U.S. is over \$7,000 and the cost of a new container made in the U.S. is less at \$5,000. Will highly motivated exporters obtain and somehow move new containers to the West Coast so they can unload trapped goods off of truck tractors and rail cars?

    That does align to a market mechanism. However it is not a fast solution and needs tens of millions of dollars on new containers… that will inevitably become the next glut.

    PEACE 😇

  26. This home is now unaffordable for the majority of the World’s population!

    [MORE]

    The cost of a 40-foot container declined modestly from \$10,377 the previous week to \$10,360 last week, or 0.2%.

    There’s still hope 😂😂😂

    • Replies: @A123
    @Blinky Bill


    The cost of a 40-foot container declined modestly from $10,377 the previous week to $10,360 last week, or 0.2%.
     
    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?

    I used rule-of-thumb numbers for 40' standard containers ($5,000 US / $3,000 China -- delivery at manufacturer's dock) that were bang on before the WUHAN-19 virus. However, I do not want to be unnecessarily out-of-date. $10K does work as China built plus $7,000 delivery to America at current Asia to U.S. shipping charges.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  27. @Kuru
    I personally don't understand why you can't just continue blogging here on Unz given its superior commenting system. I understand your decision to "retire" from full time blogging but is there any real reason to migrate to substack for your newsletter?

    Anyway, I quite enjoy your open thread posts with their collection of material that piqued your interest, and the subsequent comments threads on those topics.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter, @Dacian Julien Soros

    How about regular Open Threads here on UR if Ron’s up for it, with AK’s longer work (“Effortposts”) at Substack as announced?

    I subscribed right away to AK on Substack. We may butt heads, but the guy is a unique talent, perspective, and personality, and he’s gotta make a living. (Just don’t make it all transhumanism and video games, alright Anatoly?)

    But I would very much like the Open Threads to continue. Both to still have the AK style here and to look into the topics/links he finds and throws out to the waiting audience. Equally important, the ensuing comments section is the single best thing on UR for me. I have learned a lot about social, cultural, religious, and economic developments in the RF and former Soviet space, as well on foreign policy. AK’s columns and the commenters together have intensified my interest in Russia and in getting to know the cultures of that part of the world much more in depth.

    Several of our children have started learning Russian — dropping another language to do so — and we will be looking into high school and college student-exchange programs in Russia for them. Or more. Some of that is from the interest kindled by AK and his Merry Band of Slavs and Wanna-Be Slavs. Thanks to Ron and Anatoly.

  28. @Not Raul
    @songbird

    My grandpa worked as a groundskeeper, and I never saw him use a blower. Real men use rakes.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Barbarossa, @songbird

    Yeah, leaf blowers turn an inoffensive and healthful activity into something as obnoxious as possible…because engine.
    And I build for a living, so it’s not like I’m against power tools.

    • Agree: Not Raul
  29. @songbird
    Pretty crazy that California has banned the sale of small gas engines.

    Can only suppose it is a case of legislators not using or understanding tools. Many are undoubtedly female and/or hire Mexicans to do anything involving sweat.

    Probably will increase the exodus. Maybe, by design?

    Replies: @Not Raul, @Barbarossa, @SafeNow

    I just read an article on that. Thanks for the heads up on that, as I missed it. That’s truly crazy.

    I’ve tried some really good battery powered chainsaws (Makita has an excellent one, which matched the power of gas with a sharp chain and a small bar.), but there you aren’t going to go logging with them. Now all the poor bastard loggers are going to have to go out of state to buy their saws (shipping in will be prohibited?).

    I especially like the prohibition on generators. Since when the power goes out…Oh shoot.
    That’s also going to be killer for any remote or off-grid situations. I have solar off-grid but I’m quite reliant on my generator to keep my batteries topped off through the cloudy winter.

    Perhaps they can implement a green solution. Mexicans turning huge flywheels powering electrical dynamos!

    • LOL: songbird
  30. @Blinky Bill
    @Not Raul

    Chinese companies currently top the list of the biggest shipping container manufacturers. They are about 85% of the world’s total production of shipping containers and have been making a record 500,000 containers a month, up from 200,000 previously.

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTtkhPhjJBrUagdmAvMP-x6QI8EjSRRDqVORg&usqp.jpg

    Replies: @A123

    Chinese companies currently top the list of the biggest shipping container manufacturers. They are about 85% of the world’s total production of shipping containers and have been making a record 500,000 containers a month, up from 200,000 previously.

    Interesting, but the need is:

    ‘Empty’ containers on the ‘West Coast’.

    A Chinese container at \$3,000 (60% of U.S.) plus the cost to move it to the U.S. over \$7,000 runs net \$10,000. This is twice the effective \$5,000 cost of a U.S. built new container.

    Even if double cost ’empty’ containers were routed to the U.S., how would they be unloaded to alleviate the bottleneck?
    — Limited numbers mixed in with full containers would join the ‘full’ queue for weeks.
    — It is hard to see how a 75%+ full freighter of ’empty’ containers could be arranged.
    ___

    This does speak to the need for MAGA Reindustrialization. Making more real goods, such as containers, is a vital national security interest for the U.S. Only North American made containers can reach the congestion via ground to potentially cure the issue. Mexico and/or Canada might help, but I do not think either of them makes many shipping containers.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @David Davenport
    @A123

    This does speak to the need for MAGA Reindustrialization.

    But importing less of anything from China is part of the MAGA agenda for American reindustrialization.

  31. The immediate question is of course whether any U.S. producers of shipping containers are already operating at capacity. I would suspect that they are and that by the time this crunch passes, the Chinese option will be expedient once again.
    I agree with your broad point, but there are a lot of things in our modern economy which make no empirical sense, only financial sense.

  32. @Blinky Bill
    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRgzIZrwT3jXizt64UWce019cXIStj7bsMaiQ&usqp.jpg


    This home is now unaffordable for the majority of the World's population!


    The cost of a 40-foot container declined modestly from $10,377 the previous week to $10,360 last week, or 0.2%.

    There's still hope 😂😂😂

    Replies: @A123

    The cost of a 40-foot container declined modestly from \$10,377 the previous week to \$10,360 last week, or 0.2%.

    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?

    I used rule-of-thumb numbers for 40′ standard containers (\$5,000 US / \$3,000 China — delivery at manufacturer’s dock) that were bang on before the WUHAN-19 virus. However, I do not want to be unnecessarily out-of-date. \$10K does work as China built plus \$7,000 delivery to America at current Asia to U.S. shipping charges.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @A123


    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?
     
    Yeah sure, it's the bottom right quadrant of this graphic.


    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pkw2Ksg_rzA/X-FRrE_O3gI/AAAAAAAAHFQ/_KW2pGnnC0kTuVnT5WI-k9rbSq1HvRFFgCLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/unzcommenters.jpg


    A123 says:
    March 31, 2021 at 4:21 pm GMT • 6.5 months ago ↑
    @Blinky Bill
    Blinky the TROLL,

    Thank you for confirming you surrender with more off point drivel.

    You are now added to my Blocked Commenters list for TROLLING. Your pathetic dribbling is not worthy of any further time or attention.

    PEACE 😇
     

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561909

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561939

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561954


    A123 says:
    April 18, 2021 at 2:00 am GMT • 5.9 months ago • 100 Words ↑
    @anon
    The “Commenters to Ignore” feature is one of the most useful UR site capabilities.

    Most of the gibberish can be wiped out by a modest ANTI-TROLL blocking. Racist Supply and No Demand should be on everyone’s ignore list.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    My current BLOCKED TROLLS if anyone needs a starting place:

    Alexander Turok
    Art
    Blinky Bill
    Corvinus
    Daniel Chieh
    Druid
    Dr. Doom
    FB
    HeebHunter
    Iris
    JohnPlywood
    Kratic
    Majority of One
    Mulga Mumblebrain
    Nokangaroos
    obwandiyag
    Pat Kittle
    Rev. Spooner
    Schuetze
    Supply and Demand
    Talha

    There are a couple of known TROLLS, “AnonStarter” and “Colin Wright” that I leave unblocked because their pathetic, low-IQ flailing is genuinely comedic. I enjoy laughing at them.
     

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/woke-capital-wins-loser-labor-loses/#comment-4597846

    I will never block you!

    😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

  33. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @Anatoly Karlin


    if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I’d be perfectly happy with that.
     
    This ought to make almost everybody happy!

    The Karlin comment section is high value and life-support for it would be great. Zombie Russian reactionaries. You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.

    Replies: @Archimedes, @A123

    You could use a cartoon Rasputin who is most famous in Hollywood for refusing to die after being poisoned, shot, and tossed off a bridge into an icy river.

    I recommend Rasputin Imperial Stout.

    Whatever does not kill you, makes you stronger!

    PEACE 😇

     

  34. School Board Cranked

    Half asleep, this took a short bit to figure out. Refer to comments section below.

  35. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi

    Thank you for making the effort to post such an exhaustive, valuable and *powerful* list.

    I don’t recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles. But be sure to keep up your survey!

    I suppose one could make a ‘case’ that the long-term consequences of the latter is much more harmful than the other. If one assumes the frequency of pedophilia the same in homosexuals as heterosexuals.

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Yevardian


    I don’t recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles.
     
    Most of those names have over 200,000 words of comment history on TUR as can be verified in two seconds. TUR is a pretty big site, so that is why you might not know some of them if you mainly reside on AK's threads (which are not drenched in WN homosexuality like those of some other columnists).

    But the point is, 'far right' is anything but. About half of all WNs are gay, or at least bisexual. This is why they are kept out of normal, heterosexual white society.

    , @iffen
    @Yevardian

    I don’t recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles.

    Damn, I don't get no respect.

    Even if I show up as a WN homo.

  36. @songbird
    Any longstanding commenters want to take this opportunity to let the mask drop, to stop the charade, and admit that they were really Indians the whole time?

    "Polish" Perspective? "Thulean" Friend? Enoch Powell? Dmitry? Reiner_tor? "German"_reader? Hyperborean? "Swedish" Family? "Blinky" Bill? "Yellowface" Anon? "Kent" Nationalist? (Sorry, if I missed anyone.)


    Okay, last time I will make that joke!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian, @sher singh

    Guilty, another typically self-hating pajeet here. Some of my fondest memories involve squatting together on a busy street with the boys, answering to the call of nature, enjoying my homeland’s natural smells.

    • Replies: @Kuru
    @Yevardian

    What caused your online antagonism against us poor Indians? Were you scammed by an Indian or something?

    Replies: @A123

  37. @Yevardian
    @Thomm


    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi
     

    Thank you for making the effort to post such an exhaustive, valuable and *powerful* list.

    I don't recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles. But be sure to keep up your survey!

    I suppose one could make a 'case' that the long-term consequences of the latter is much more harmful than the other. If one assumes the frequency of pedophilia the same in homosexuals as heterosexuals.

    Replies: @Thomm, @iffen

    I don’t recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles.

    Most of those names have over 200,000 words of comment history on TUR as can be verified in two seconds. TUR is a pretty big site, so that is why you might not know some of them if you mainly reside on AK’s threads (which are not drenched in WN homosexuality like those of some other columnists).

    But the point is, ‘far right’ is anything but. About half of all WNs are gay, or at least bisexual. This is why they are kept out of normal, heterosexual white society.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
  38. I really hope I get to visit Russia someday.
    Life is complicated.
    I would love to go somewhere with 1000 years history.
    And somewhere NO FAG.
    Thanks for many of the travel pieces.
    best

  39. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    There is so little support for the far right and you are worrying about this ? If the alt right gets the support of anyone, gay socialists included, so what ?

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @AKAHorace

    (Please note that that is a Corvinus-tier commenter.)

  40. sher singh says:
    @songbird
    Any longstanding commenters want to take this opportunity to let the mask drop, to stop the charade, and admit that they were really Indians the whole time?

    "Polish" Perspective? "Thulean" Friend? Enoch Powell? Dmitry? Reiner_tor? "German"_reader? Hyperborean? "Swedish" Family? "Blinky" Bill? "Yellowface" Anon? "Kent" Nationalist? (Sorry, if I missed anyone.)


    Okay, last time I will make that joke!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Anatoly Karlin, @Yevardian, @sher singh

    (Joining now requires jumping through hoops that will be unrealistic for most people)

    Not anymore, you just install the Port application (Fag Os, Linux & Win 10) & it handles the rest||

    https://urbit.org/getting-started#port

    Substack comment is easier to create threads ie N-Towers. Discord u can just remake when it bans.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  41. Mahabharat & Sri Guru Dasam Granth Sahib:

    [MORE]

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  42. @A123
    @Blinky Bill


    The cost of a 40-foot container declined modestly from $10,377 the previous week to $10,360 last week, or 0.2%.
     
    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?

    I used rule-of-thumb numbers for 40' standard containers ($5,000 US / $3,000 China -- delivery at manufacturer's dock) that were bang on before the WUHAN-19 virus. However, I do not want to be unnecessarily out-of-date. $10K does work as China built plus $7,000 delivery to America at current Asia to U.S. shipping charges.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?

    Yeah sure, it’s the bottom right quadrant of this graphic.

    [MORE]

    A123 says:
    March 31, 2021 at 4:21 pm GMT • 6.5 months ago ↑

    Blinky the TROLL,

    Thank you for confirming you surrender with more off point drivel.

    You are now added to my Blocked Commenters list for TROLLING. Your pathetic dribbling is not worthy of any further time or attention.

    PEACE 😇

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561909

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561939

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561954

    A123 says:
    April 18, 2021 at 2:00 am GMT • 5.9 months ago • 100 Words ↑
    @anon
    The “Commenters to Ignore” feature is one of the most useful UR site capabilities.

    Most of the gibberish can be wiped out by a modest ANTI-TROLL blocking. Racist Supply and No Demand should be on everyone’s ignore list.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    My current BLOCKED TROLLS if anyone needs a starting place:

    Alexander Turok
    Art
    Blinky Bill
    Corvinus
    Daniel Chieh
    Druid
    Dr. Doom
    FB
    HeebHunter
    Iris
    JohnPlywood
    Kratic
    Majority of One
    Mulga Mumblebrain
    Nokangaroos
    obwandiyag
    Pat Kittle
    Rev. Spooner
    Schuetze
    Supply and Demand
    Talha

    There are a couple of known TROLLS, “AnonStarter” and “Colin Wright” that I leave unblocked because their pathetic, low-IQ flailing is genuinely comedic. I enjoy laughing at them.

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/woke-capital-wins-loser-labor-loses/#comment-4597846

    I will never block you!

    😇

    • Troll: A123
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    When many people share the same account it's hard to keep track of whose comments your suppose to pretend you haven't read.

    , @A123
    @Blinky Bill

    As part of AK's closing act here, I lifted blocks as a gesture of goodwill. Sadly, you disrespect & spit on AK'S legacy.

    I have re-added you to my blocked commenters list for TROLLING.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  43. @Blinky Bill
    @A123


    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?
     
    Yeah sure, it's the bottom right quadrant of this graphic.


    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pkw2Ksg_rzA/X-FRrE_O3gI/AAAAAAAAHFQ/_KW2pGnnC0kTuVnT5WI-k9rbSq1HvRFFgCLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/unzcommenters.jpg


    A123 says:
    March 31, 2021 at 4:21 pm GMT • 6.5 months ago ↑
    @Blinky Bill
    Blinky the TROLL,

    Thank you for confirming you surrender with more off point drivel.

    You are now added to my Blocked Commenters list for TROLLING. Your pathetic dribbling is not worthy of any further time or attention.

    PEACE 😇
     

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561909

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561939

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561954


    A123 says:
    April 18, 2021 at 2:00 am GMT • 5.9 months ago • 100 Words ↑
    @anon
    The “Commenters to Ignore” feature is one of the most useful UR site capabilities.

    Most of the gibberish can be wiped out by a modest ANTI-TROLL blocking. Racist Supply and No Demand should be on everyone’s ignore list.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    My current BLOCKED TROLLS if anyone needs a starting place:

    Alexander Turok
    Art
    Blinky Bill
    Corvinus
    Daniel Chieh
    Druid
    Dr. Doom
    FB
    HeebHunter
    Iris
    JohnPlywood
    Kratic
    Majority of One
    Mulga Mumblebrain
    Nokangaroos
    obwandiyag
    Pat Kittle
    Rev. Spooner
    Schuetze
    Supply and Demand
    Talha

    There are a couple of known TROLLS, “AnonStarter” and “Colin Wright” that I leave unblocked because their pathetic, low-IQ flailing is genuinely comedic. I enjoy laughing at them.
     

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/woke-capital-wins-loser-labor-loses/#comment-4597846

    I will never block you!

    😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

    When many people share the same account it’s hard to keep track of whose comments your suppose to pretend you haven’t read.

  44. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    Lol, speaking of the secretly Indian, here he is. Well, not so secretly to be sure.

    Above we can, by fortuitous chance, view the deliverable that Priyeet has assembled for his minimum wage employers at the ADL. Looks like you will have to type it into Excel yourself though, Heidi. Enjoy!

    Please do the needful and move my name to top of list, by the way.

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Pericles

    So, Pericles, in the past you have already answered that question with a preference of race over gender in sexual liaisons. This is confirmed how you actually requested to be moved to the top of the list (i.e. be recognized as the most gay of all WN wiggers). I remind you that heterosexuals have a low opinion of individuals who are on a list like this.


    Hence, with this response, you have just volunteered for the next phase, and thus the next question :

    If these were the only two choices available and you had to choose one, would you rather have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?

    Answer the question without dodging and obfuscation. That way, everyone can see your answer.

    It is quite a simple question.

    P.S. I am not a ‘South Asian’, btw. No one with an IQ above 70 thinks that, but are just desperate to believe anything the resident media Jew tells you to. Not to mention that on this very thread, others have made fun of idiots like you who see a 'South Asian' around every corner (see Comment #18, although you probably can't recognize the location that the map signifies).

    You just used that clumsy tactic to unsuccessfully dodge the real question here.

    Quit dodging, and answer the question that is in bold.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  45. @AKAHorace
    @Thomm


    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.
     
    There is so little support for the far right and you are worrying about this ? If the alt right gets the support of anyone, gay socialists included, so what ?

    Replies: @Pericles

    (Please note that that is a Corvinus-tier commenter.)

  46. @Blinky Bill
    @A123


    Can you share the source & terms for that price, including build location & delivery location?
     
    Yeah sure, it's the bottom right quadrant of this graphic.


    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pkw2Ksg_rzA/X-FRrE_O3gI/AAAAAAAAHFQ/_KW2pGnnC0kTuVnT5WI-k9rbSq1HvRFFgCLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/unzcommenters.jpg


    A123 says:
    March 31, 2021 at 4:21 pm GMT • 6.5 months ago ↑
    @Blinky Bill
    Blinky the TROLL,

    Thank you for confirming you surrender with more off point drivel.

    You are now added to my Blocked Commenters list for TROLLING. Your pathetic dribbling is not worthy of any further time or attention.

    PEACE 😇
     

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561909

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561939

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/#comment-4561954


    A123 says:
    April 18, 2021 at 2:00 am GMT • 5.9 months ago • 100 Words ↑
    @anon
    The “Commenters to Ignore” feature is one of the most useful UR site capabilities.

    Most of the gibberish can be wiped out by a modest ANTI-TROLL blocking. Racist Supply and No Demand should be on everyone’s ignore list.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    My current BLOCKED TROLLS if anyone needs a starting place:

    Alexander Turok
    Art
    Blinky Bill
    Corvinus
    Daniel Chieh
    Druid
    Dr. Doom
    FB
    HeebHunter
    Iris
    JohnPlywood
    Kratic
    Majority of One
    Mulga Mumblebrain
    Nokangaroos
    obwandiyag
    Pat Kittle
    Rev. Spooner
    Schuetze
    Supply and Demand
    Talha

    There are a couple of known TROLLS, “AnonStarter” and “Colin Wright” that I leave unblocked because their pathetic, low-IQ flailing is genuinely comedic. I enjoy laughing at them.
     

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/woke-capital-wins-loser-labor-loses/#comment-4597846

    I will never block you!

    😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @A123

    As part of AK’s closing act here, I lifted blocks as a gesture of goodwill. Sadly, you disrespect & spit on AK’S legacy.

    I have re-added you to my blocked commenters list for TROLLING.

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @A123


    I have re-added you to my blocked commenters list for TROLLING.
     
    It's all good, as long as you keep reading my comments, I don't mind if you block me.

    I just wish we could be good friends like Merkel and Xi.


    https://twitter.com/shen_shiwei/status/1448308198990127108?s=20



    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-3BaRFXMAQdQax.jpg


    PEACE 😇
  47. @Kuru
    I personally don't understand why you can't just continue blogging here on Unz given its superior commenting system. I understand your decision to "retire" from full time blogging but is there any real reason to migrate to substack for your newsletter?

    Anyway, I quite enjoy your open thread posts with their collection of material that piqued your interest, and the subsequent comments threads on those topics.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter, @Dacian Julien Soros

    He is not maintaining a blog, so that I can shitpost in the comments section. A few years ago, he wanted to be a vlogger on Youtube. He still hopes to make some money, so let the man follow his dream. I am not going to forecast anything this time.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    Congratulations on being the only commenter more spiteful than utu.
    I mean that sincerely.

  48. • Thanks: mal, Voltarde, Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @mal
    @Aedib

    Russia should consider converting those budget surpluses into GDP growth.

    Also, I disagree with them about lending being a limited source for growth - Russia is currently experiencing some inflation due to supply chain disruption, just like everybody else. But I don't think it's sustainable. Deflation will win out in the end unless drastic measures are taken. This means lower rates are coming to Russia in a year or two down the road, which will enable them to refinance quite profitably.

    Russian inflation rate runs about 2% above US, not bad at all. Lower rates are coming and that should be supportive for growth.

    Replies: @Aedib

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Aedib

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBgEkWUVgAA0xgv.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  49. Anatoly,

    Any new crypto advice to give?

  50. I suppose there were too many contradictions, so it is time to move on. This is the time before things happen and that creates a lot of tension, I just wish people would enjoy it more.

    The difference between a saint and a criminal is often only luck and there are different ways to describe reality. AK had a certain flair and tolerance for dissent. On the other hand, as we go ever more existential (look around!), those who refuse to be controlled by the people who cannot even control themselves – looking at you, scared, unhealthy fatsos out there – must stand our ground.

    The jabbers brigade and the quasi-nazi-quasi-royal-worship contingent is amusing, but a sign that things are really out of whack. Right, the solution is to replace the current assh-le boomer narcissists with nostalgia brown-nosing to the long dead princes. And conformist unthinking obedience with an occasional self-mutilation.

    It all smells of dead-enders fears.

  51. @songbird
    Pretty crazy that California has banned the sale of small gas engines.

    Can only suppose it is a case of legislators not using or understanding tools. Many are undoubtedly female and/or hire Mexicans to do anything involving sweat.

    Probably will increase the exodus. Maybe, by design?

    Replies: @Not Raul, @Barbarossa, @SafeNow

    Newsom’s ban on gas leaf blowers will be effective in 2024, or later, if the air resources board determines that such a target date is not feasible. In other words, Newsom left himself enough room for the ban to never go into effect. I live in California.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @SafeNow

    Perhaps, there will be a ballot initiative to block it.

  52. @Yevardian
    @Thomm


    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi
     

    Thank you for making the effort to post such an exhaustive, valuable and *powerful* list.

    I don't recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles. But be sure to keep up your survey!

    I suppose one could make a 'case' that the long-term consequences of the latter is much more harmful than the other. If one assumes the frequency of pedophilia the same in homosexuals as heterosexuals.

    Replies: @Thomm, @iffen

    I don’t recognise a single one of them except utu, maybe Pericles.

    Damn, I don’t get no respect.

    Even if I show up as a WN homo.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  53. @Not Raul
    @songbird

    My grandpa worked as a groundskeeper, and I never saw him use a blower. Real men use rakes.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @Barbarossa, @songbird

    I could live without leaf blowers, but a general ban on small gas motors seems insane to me. (Especially chainsaws and generators.) A lot of Amish allow gas motors – if whatever it is doesn’t have powered wheels.

    I’ve speculated that the design of gas mowers has gotten worse over the years. Now suspect that is due to previous CA laws.

  54. @SafeNow
    @songbird

    Newsom’s ban on gas leaf blowers will be effective in 2024, or later, if the air resources board determines that such a target date is not feasible. In other words, Newsom left himself enough room for the ban to never go into effect. I live in California.

    Replies: @songbird

    Perhaps, there will be a ballot initiative to block it.

  55. @Aedib
    On Russian macroeconomic data.

    https://think.ing.com/articles/russian-budget-consolidation-may-face-obstacles-in-2022/

    It looks very strong.

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill

    Russia should consider converting those budget surpluses into GDP growth.

    Also, I disagree with them about lending being a limited source for growth – Russia is currently experiencing some inflation due to supply chain disruption, just like everybody else. But I don’t think it’s sustainable. Deflation will win out in the end unless drastic measures are taken. This means lower rates are coming to Russia in a year or two down the road, which will enable them to refinance quite profitably.

    Russian inflation rate runs about 2% above US, not bad at all. Lower rates are coming and that should be supportive for growth.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Aedib
    @mal

    Budget surplus should be advisable for a couple of years more for replenish reserve funds. After that a 0 deficit/surplus will be OK. Also it should take some funds from the extraordinary gas/oil pricess to make a fund for financing strategic projects like Power of Siberia 2 (Trans-Mongolian pipeline). Once the Trans-Mongolian start to operate, the coercion capability of Eurocrats over Russia will be dead and the exposition of Chinese to American interdiction in the seas will suffer a big blow. This will be the last screw in the coffin of Western geo-economic dominance.

    Replies: @mal

  56. @Anatoly Karlin
    @songbird

    UR debates about crypto-Indians:

    https://torako.wakarimasen.moe/file/torako/biz/image/1614/18/1614184518694.jpg

    Replies: @Twinkie

    1. Thanks for the laugh and 2. I am really going to laugh for a good while if it turned out that you were Indian (and not Jewish as some commenters seem to obsess).

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Twinkie

    Haha, but no, you're quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Not Raul

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Twinkie


    that you were Indian
     
    This is a rumor that I have to advance, along with the "Karlin was a member of PLAN."
  57. @A123
    @Blinky Bill

    As part of AK's closing act here, I lifted blocks as a gesture of goodwill. Sadly, you disrespect & spit on AK'S legacy.

    I have re-added you to my blocked commenters list for TROLLING.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    I have re-added you to my blocked commenters list for TROLLING.

    It’s all good, as long as you keep reading my comments, I don’t mind if you block me.

    I just wish we could be good friends like Merkel and Xi.

    [MORE]

    PEACE 😇

  58. @Aedib
    On Russian macroeconomic data.

    https://think.ing.com/articles/russian-budget-consolidation-may-face-obstacles-in-2022/

    It looks very strong.

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://tass.ru/ekonomika/12645817

  59. @Blinky Bill
    @Aedib

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FBgEkWUVgAA0xgv.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  60. @Pericles
    @Thomm

    Lol, speaking of the secretly Indian, here he is. Well, not so secretly to be sure.

    Above we can, by fortuitous chance, view the deliverable that Priyeet has assembled for his minimum wage employers at the ADL. Looks like you will have to type it into Excel yourself though, Heidi. Enjoy!

    Please do the needful and move my name to top of list, by the way.

    Replies: @Thomm

    So, Pericles, in the past you have already answered that question with a preference of race over gender in sexual liaisons. This is confirmed how you actually requested to be moved to the top of the list (i.e. be recognized as the most gay of all WN wiggers). I remind you that heterosexuals have a low opinion of individuals who are on a list like this.

    Hence, with this response, you have just volunteered for the next phase, and thus the next question :

    If these were the only two choices available and you had to choose one, would you rather have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?

    Answer the question without dodging and obfuscation. That way, everyone can see your answer.

    It is quite a simple question.

    P.S. I am not a ‘South Asian’, btw. No one with an IQ above 70 thinks that, but are just desperate to believe anything the resident media Jew tells you to. Not to mention that on this very thread, others have made fun of idiots like you who see a ‘South Asian’ around every corner (see Comment #18, although you probably can’t recognize the location that the map signifies).

    You just used that clumsy tactic to unsuccessfully dodge the real question here.

    Quit dodging, and answer the question that is in bold.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Thomm

    A small subset of your critics dismisses you as an "Indian" the same way you dismiss downscale white Americans routinely and insultingly as "wiggers" or "waste matter." So you have more in common with them than you realize.

    The rest of us just find you extremely annoying, because you keep repeating those same unintelligent insults. And just for that, if we all ever find ourselves in a squid game, I am going to make sure you fail out of the game first. ;)

  61. @Dacian Julien Soros
    @Kuru

    He is not maintaining a blog, so that I can shitpost in the comments section. A few years ago, he wanted to be a vlogger on Youtube. He still hopes to make some money, so let the man follow his dream. I am not going to forecast anything this time.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    Congratulations on being the only commenter more spiteful than utu.
    I mean that sincerely.

  62. @Thomm
    @Pericles

    So, Pericles, in the past you have already answered that question with a preference of race over gender in sexual liaisons. This is confirmed how you actually requested to be moved to the top of the list (i.e. be recognized as the most gay of all WN wiggers). I remind you that heterosexuals have a low opinion of individuals who are on a list like this.


    Hence, with this response, you have just volunteered for the next phase, and thus the next question :

    If these were the only two choices available and you had to choose one, would you rather have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?

    Answer the question without dodging and obfuscation. That way, everyone can see your answer.

    It is quite a simple question.

    P.S. I am not a ‘South Asian’, btw. No one with an IQ above 70 thinks that, but are just desperate to believe anything the resident media Jew tells you to. Not to mention that on this very thread, others have made fun of idiots like you who see a 'South Asian' around every corner (see Comment #18, although you probably can't recognize the location that the map signifies).

    You just used that clumsy tactic to unsuccessfully dodge the real question here.

    Quit dodging, and answer the question that is in bold.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    A small subset of your critics dismisses you as an “Indian” the same way you dismiss downscale white Americans routinely and insultingly as “wiggers” or “waste matter.” So you have more in common with them than you realize.

    The rest of us just find you extremely annoying, because you keep repeating those same unintelligent insults. And just for that, if we all ever find ourselves in a squid game, I am going to make sure you fail out of the game first. 😉

  63. I don’t blame you for leaving.

    Perhaps Twitter is now filling the same niche that you once enjoyed here.

    Or the little spoken fact that more people are aware of the topics discussed here than 10 years ago and therefore no longer a rarity to find like-minded people.

    Maybe it’s the fact you’re published and want to distance yourself from cosplayers posting pictures of their ISIL-beards and decorative made-in-China toy swords (next to authors who post twirling swastikas and dancing elephants).

    It takes no effort to maintain this “community” of sniper-lurkers, shitposters, European gays, drunken Slav commies (gays & commies bro….), butter knife-wielding Indians, geezers-with-no-clue, and paid-trolls. A simple post with 3 links to mildly interesting topics is all it takes. A paywall will fracture this group, as a pirate paying for anything goes against my fundamental beliefs. As someone who openly shared scihub and library genesis I can’t help but wonder if it’s just a plan to shift gears away from writing online altogether.

    You’ve harvested all the younger blood on Unz Review and gathered them here. The rest of Unz Review is “muh white genocide” or “white nationals uber alles”. Even Ronald wrote a piece about how his website turned into White Nationalist malarkey.

    You focused a small corner of it into transhumanism, games (don’t listen to that queer that says those are bad, he probably uses an Apple), Russia, politics, the search for truth, crypto-rumors, “HBD” (this is a gay useless term), contrarian analysis………..

    I’m astonished how many people here are Indian. I told my brother I suspect the majority of engaged/commentating traffic on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are from places like India, Eastern Europe, and China e-stalking whites/Westerners. I’m starting to believe they constitute the largest portion of users who live more online than off.

    To Ron Unz:

    When is this….

    Going to look like a real forum like this:
    https://thepit.ja-galaxy-forum.com/
    An old 1999 game forum STILL ACTIVE (Jagged Alliance 2)

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Max Payne

    Almost all texts I write on my Substack will be publicly accessible.

    , @sher singh
    @Max Payne

    You talk a lot of shit for a Canadian..

    https://twitter.com/GSD1699/status/1447312447493181440

    You're free to find out whether it's China made or a butter knife..

    You're a North American white, the Native blood means you have no beard||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    , @mal
    @Max Payne

    Hey, I still play Jagged Alliance 2, the 1.13 mod. The only game I know that lets you pick how racist and sexist you want to be and lets you choose which nationalities to hate.

    If you like turn based squad strategy games, 1.13 is a must play. I would recommend dialing disease options down though. While yes, espionage and covert biological warfare are a real deal in the game, managing reinfection rates for your teams can get overwhelming fast, even with proper medical tools and food/water disposal protocols.

  64. @Twinkie
    @Anatoly Karlin

    1. Thanks for the laugh and 2. I am really going to laugh for a good while if it turned out that you were Indian (and not Jewish as some commenters seem to obsess).

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh

    Haha, but no, you’re quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Haha, but no, you’re quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/
     
    23andme results and pictures of "yourself" can be faked!

    I don't believe anything on the internet. ;)
    , @Not Raul
    @Anatoly Karlin

    You’re part Italian?

    I suppose they had Italians in Odessa, like the architect Boffo.

    Did Togliatti father any children in Russia?

  65. @Max Payne
    I don't blame you for leaving.

    Perhaps Twitter is now filling the same niche that you once enjoyed here.

    Or the little spoken fact that more people are aware of the topics discussed here than 10 years ago and therefore no longer a rarity to find like-minded people.

    Maybe it's the fact you're published and want to distance yourself from cosplayers posting pictures of their ISIL-beards and decorative made-in-China toy swords (next to authors who post twirling swastikas and dancing elephants).


    It takes no effort to maintain this "community" of sniper-lurkers, shitposters, European gays, drunken Slav commies (gays & commies bro....), butter knife-wielding Indians, geezers-with-no-clue, and paid-trolls. A simple post with 3 links to mildly interesting topics is all it takes. A paywall will fracture this group, as a pirate paying for anything goes against my fundamental beliefs. As someone who openly shared scihub and library genesis I can't help but wonder if it's just a plan to shift gears away from writing online altogether.

    You've harvested all the younger blood on Unz Review and gathered them here. The rest of Unz Review is "muh white genocide" or "white nationals uber alles". Even Ronald wrote a piece about how his website turned into White Nationalist malarkey.

    You focused a small corner of it into transhumanism, games (don't listen to that queer that says those are bad, he probably uses an Apple), Russia, politics, the search for truth, crypto-rumors, "HBD" (this is a gay useless term), contrarian analysis...........

    I'm astonished how many people here are Indian. I told my brother I suspect the majority of engaged/commentating traffic on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are from places like India, Eastern Europe, and China e-stalking whites/Westerners. I'm starting to believe they constitute the largest portion of users who live more online than off.


    To Ron Unz:

    When is this....

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x_SgGZPyWYI/YWfVWhublAI/AAAAAAAAHcA/T7cgaFND-L4RtmulAtyD4uVc9QAfeMh6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/Screenshot8.jpg

    Going to look like a real forum like this:
    https://thepit.ja-galaxy-forum.com/
    An old 1999 game forum STILL ACTIVE (Jagged Alliance 2)

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sher singh, @mal

    Almost all texts I write on my Substack will be publicly accessible.

  66. @Max Payne
    I don't blame you for leaving.

    Perhaps Twitter is now filling the same niche that you once enjoyed here.

    Or the little spoken fact that more people are aware of the topics discussed here than 10 years ago and therefore no longer a rarity to find like-minded people.

    Maybe it's the fact you're published and want to distance yourself from cosplayers posting pictures of their ISIL-beards and decorative made-in-China toy swords (next to authors who post twirling swastikas and dancing elephants).


    It takes no effort to maintain this "community" of sniper-lurkers, shitposters, European gays, drunken Slav commies (gays & commies bro....), butter knife-wielding Indians, geezers-with-no-clue, and paid-trolls. A simple post with 3 links to mildly interesting topics is all it takes. A paywall will fracture this group, as a pirate paying for anything goes against my fundamental beliefs. As someone who openly shared scihub and library genesis I can't help but wonder if it's just a plan to shift gears away from writing online altogether.

    You've harvested all the younger blood on Unz Review and gathered them here. The rest of Unz Review is "muh white genocide" or "white nationals uber alles". Even Ronald wrote a piece about how his website turned into White Nationalist malarkey.

    You focused a small corner of it into transhumanism, games (don't listen to that queer that says those are bad, he probably uses an Apple), Russia, politics, the search for truth, crypto-rumors, "HBD" (this is a gay useless term), contrarian analysis...........

    I'm astonished how many people here are Indian. I told my brother I suspect the majority of engaged/commentating traffic on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are from places like India, Eastern Europe, and China e-stalking whites/Westerners. I'm starting to believe they constitute the largest portion of users who live more online than off.


    To Ron Unz:

    When is this....

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x_SgGZPyWYI/YWfVWhublAI/AAAAAAAAHcA/T7cgaFND-L4RtmulAtyD4uVc9QAfeMh6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/Screenshot8.jpg

    Going to look like a real forum like this:
    https://thepit.ja-galaxy-forum.com/
    An old 1999 game forum STILL ACTIVE (Jagged Alliance 2)

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sher singh, @mal

    You talk a lot of shit for a Canadian..

    You’re free to find out whether it’s China made or a butter knife..

    You’re a North American white, the Native blood means you have no beard||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  67. https://occidentaldissent.com/2021/10/12/the-triumph-and-terror-of-wang-huning/

    Interesting article, Tldr Chinaman writes anti America book in 91, Jinping a fan।।

    Wonder what qin_duke thinks if he still around here

    Comments say big Pentagon Ai researcher quits due to ethics fags।।

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  68. Science Denial achieves new milestone: (1)

    OH PLEASE! Climate Crazies Claim Global Stilling At Fault For Wind Turbines Not Producing Energy

    The far-left Gaia worshippers say that the “Climate Crisis” is responsible for floods, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions. A longer list of crazy things blamed on climate change is at the end of this post. Their latest crazy belief is that their unproven hypothesis caused the slowing of global wind speeds.

    Long labelled as a saviour of the energy industry, wind farms have cropped up across the continent in recent years and have been billed a low-cost, renewable and dependable source of power…

    Experts are blaming a growing phenomenon known as ‘global stilling’ – whereby measurable wind speeds across the world’s continental surfaces have decreased by as much as 15 per cent since 1980.

    Q: When will Science Deniers give up their unsupportable push for Wind and Solar?

    A: My prediction… When Globalists Elites can no longer line their pockets via Wind and Solar scams.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://lidblog.com/global-stilling/

     

    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
    @A123

    It's all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @A123

  69. @Yevardian
    @songbird

    Guilty, another typically self-hating pajeet here. Some of my fondest memories involve squatting together on a busy street with the boys, answering to the call of nature, enjoying my homeland's natural smells.

    Replies: @Kuru

    What caused your online antagonism against us poor Indians? Were you scammed by an Indian or something?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Kuru

    I do not understand the concern about Indians.

    Your people make excellent Corn (sorry... Maize) products.

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8o4RDeHJe-iFez204QvSfFw0NCE=/0x0:1266x712/1600x900/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51760019/Screen_Shot_2016-11-09_at_5.06.54_PM.0.0.png

    https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5UsYQxUuqxo/Vwu3slFHy_I/AAAAAAAAYGs/25LV_Pr0Lq4gnBt0jQ8W27h6tTIrgzlAg/s1600/Apache-Indian-tribe-corn-farming-color-picture-house-camp.jpg

  70. @Twinkie
    @Anatoly Karlin

    1. Thanks for the laugh and 2. I am really going to laugh for a good while if it turned out that you were Indian (and not Jewish as some commenters seem to obsess).

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh

    that you were Indian

    This is a rumor that I have to advance, along with the “Karlin was a member of PLAN.”

  71. @Kuru
    @Yevardian

    What caused your online antagonism against us poor Indians? Were you scammed by an Indian or something?

    Replies: @A123

    I do not understand the concern about Indians.

    Your people make excellent Corn (sorry… Maize) products.

    PEACE 😇

     

    [MORE]

  72. @A123
    Science Denial achieves new milestone: (1)

    OH PLEASE! Climate Crazies Claim Global Stilling At Fault For Wind Turbines Not Producing Energy

    The far-left Gaia worshippers say that the “Climate Crisis” is responsible for floods, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions. A longer list of crazy things blamed on climate change is at the end of this post. Their latest crazy belief is that their unproven hypothesis caused the slowing of global wind speeds.

    Long labelled as a saviour of the energy industry, wind farms have cropped up across the continent in recent years and have been billed a low-cost, renewable and dependable source of power…

    Experts are blaming a growing phenomenon known as ‘global stilling’ – whereby measurable wind speeds across the world’s continental surfaces have decreased by as much as 15 per cent since 1980.
     

     
    Q: When will Science Deniers give up their unsupportable push for Wind and Solar?

    A: My prediction... When Globalists Elites can no longer line their pockets via Wind and Solar scams.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://lidblog.com/global-stilling/

     
    https://lidblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/5qbwt9.jpeg

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

    It’s all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    It’s all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

     

    https://www.rt.com/news/537178-candace-owens-fat-vaccine-covid19/
    , @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Greta Therber in yoga pants.
     
    Do you mean Saint Greta Thunberg? In yoga pants?

    I now 100% agree with Barbarossa -- we need an “EWWW!” button…

    And, even if you take away the yoga pants -- We STILL need an “EWWW!” button…


    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8Ehc7AX4AAm1SG.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  73. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    I think we need an “EWWW!” button…

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    I think we need an “EWWW!” button…
     
    Perhaps. "EWWWW!" is correct because it is becoming more evident how pervasive the practice of homosexuality is within contemporary White Nationalism. I mean, the list I presented is of people here who are unable to indicate that they prefer a mulatto woman over a white man for sex. Even though this is an anonymous forum.

    This is also why they have no problem with transgenderism, since the race of the person did not change. The gender 'transition' is an unimportant detail to WNs, since the race did not change.

    This is why we don't allow these degenerates into normal, heterosexual society. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but virtually zero are found in WN circles. The few that are happen to be age 70 or older.

    I don't approve of these Trashionalists. No one of any merit does.

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Barbarossa

  74. I didn’t get the chance to comment in the previous post (The Last Reaction), so I’ll post my parting shot here.

    First and foremost, a standing ovation for Anatoly Karlin. I have been reading him for many years (long before he was picked up by Ron), and unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    You could compare and contrast him with some of the other writers here. The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I’m not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking that AK evolved beyond. If you compare to Steve Sailer, well Steve has been more or less saying the same thing for the past twenty years. No disrespect to Steve Sailer of course without whom many of us wouldn’t even be here. And admittedly the distinction with Steve may have more to do with age than anything else.

    The content of AK’s posts in combination with his wise choice not to moderate comments also led to an unusually excellent community. Wade elsewhere on the Unz Review and you get bombarded by anti-vax morons, low quality WW2 “revisionists”, and weirdos like Thomm (who somehow made his way into this thread–guess he got lost searching for “white trashionalist” homo-sexuals to hit on). AK’s commenters stand head and shoulders above them and nearly all others on the internet. Probably the worst regular commenters on AK’s pieces are A123 and AaronB, who are really not that bad.

    As for me, I do intend to make the transition to Substack and thus you’ll be able to keep up with me there. Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    See you all on Substack, though I will retain a presence on the Unz Review as well.

    • Agree: Yevardian, Blinky Bill
    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin, mal
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Thorfinnsson


    That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.
     
    Sincere congratulations! I know it sounds hackneyed, but fatherhood really changes things, doesn't it?

    Also - and without meaning to sound patronizing at all - I must acknowledge too that your commenting quality has increased dramatically since I first encountered you on Unz. Please know that, while I do not necessarily agree with what you write, I do find your comments thought-stimulating and interesting, and hope to read more of them.

    Best regards,

    Twinkie

    P.S. About AE...

    The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I’m not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking
     
    Setting aside what you call his "financial doomerist thinking," which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE's modus operandi that needed improvement?

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @A123

    , @AP
    @Thorfinnsson


    Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.
     
    Thank you for sharing this excellent news!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @sher singh
    @Thorfinnsson

    Grats, also Swedes are the Gujjus of Europe||

    Had a 7/10 squat session, since I was under-recovered but I'll pretend it was something else:

    So, I reviewed this again & it's pretty good.

    https://www.elitefts.com/education/dave-tates-free-squat-manual/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    , @BlackFlag
    @Thorfinnsson


    unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.
     
    He's one of the most realistic, i.e. doesn't let personal leanings cloud his analysis.
  75. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Twinkie

    Haha, but no, you're quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Not Raul

    Haha, but no, you’re quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/

    23andme results and pictures of “yourself” can be faked!

    I don’t believe anything on the internet. 😉

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  76. @Thorfinnsson
    I didn't get the chance to comment in the previous post (The Last Reaction), so I'll post my parting shot here.

    First and foremost, a standing ovation for Anatoly Karlin. I have been reading him for many years (long before he was picked up by Ron), and unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    You could compare and contrast him with some of the other writers here. The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I'm not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking that AK evolved beyond. If you compare to Steve Sailer, well Steve has been more or less saying the same thing for the past twenty years. No disrespect to Steve Sailer of course without whom many of us wouldn't even be here. And admittedly the distinction with Steve may have more to do with age than anything else.

    The content of AK's posts in combination with his wise choice not to moderate comments also led to an unusually excellent community. Wade elsewhere on the Unz Review and you get bombarded by anti-vax morons, low quality WW2 "revisionists", and weirdos like Thomm (who somehow made his way into this thread--guess he got lost searching for "white trashionalist" homo-sexuals to hit on). AK's commenters stand head and shoulders above them and nearly all others on the internet. Probably the worst regular commenters on AK's pieces are A123 and AaronB, who are really not that bad.

    As for me, I do intend to make the transition to Substack and thus you'll be able to keep up with me there. Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    See you all on Substack, though I will retain a presence on the Unz Review as well.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @AP, @sher singh, @BlackFlag

    That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    Sincere congratulations! I know it sounds hackneyed, but fatherhood really changes things, doesn’t it?

    Also – and without meaning to sound patronizing at all – I must acknowledge too that your commenting quality has increased dramatically since I first encountered you on Unz. Please know that, while I do not necessarily agree with what you write, I do find your comments thought-stimulating and interesting, and hope to read more of them.

    Best regards,

    Twinkie

    P.S. About AE…

    The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I’m not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking

    Setting aside what you call his “financial doomerist thinking,” which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE’s modus operandi that needed improvement?

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    @Twinkie

    Fatherhood changes priorities and the way you relate to both the world and other people, but for me I suspect less has changed than the usual new father. I have near complete scheduling freedom, a very good housewife, economic security, and had already abandoned most vices prior to fatherhood. As such my routine was less changed than most.

    On a mundane level the greatest change (other than the obvious) is being able to relate to and talk to other parents, as well as being interested in children and babies in general. Prior to becoming a father I related to parents from the perspective of a child and was not much interested in other people's children and babies. Now it's a topic of great interest.

    Audacious Epigone had a very specific focus in his blog. He did one thing and did it very well. So no, there was no need for him to improve, but improvement is always welcome. And in any case it was highlighted precisely to point out AK's unusual positive evolution, since being mentioned in the same conversation as AE is high praise indeed.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @A123
    @Twinkie


    Setting aside what you call his “financial doomerist thinking,” which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE’s modus operandi that needed improvement?
     
    There were minor things he could have done better. That being said he did things much better than I could. Sometimes I felt a bit odd tossing comments in from the peanut gallery.

    Posting graphs of data was an incredibly useful tool. However, AE occasionally over looked interesting outliers in the data he presented. Or, left things in a less than intuitive format. For example, he had an excellent piece on SCOTUS that implied grouping of Justices, yet the accompanying graph showed the Justices in chronological order rather than the groups he was implying.

    I guess the best way to sum it up is, "AE was very effective, but there are periodically options to improve on the high standard that he set."

    PEACE 😇
  77. @Twinkie
    @Thorfinnsson


    That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.
     
    Sincere congratulations! I know it sounds hackneyed, but fatherhood really changes things, doesn't it?

    Also - and without meaning to sound patronizing at all - I must acknowledge too that your commenting quality has increased dramatically since I first encountered you on Unz. Please know that, while I do not necessarily agree with what you write, I do find your comments thought-stimulating and interesting, and hope to read more of them.

    Best regards,

    Twinkie

    P.S. About AE...

    The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I’m not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking
     
    Setting aside what you call his "financial doomerist thinking," which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE's modus operandi that needed improvement?

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @A123

    Fatherhood changes priorities and the way you relate to both the world and other people, but for me I suspect less has changed than the usual new father. I have near complete scheduling freedom, a very good housewife, economic security, and had already abandoned most vices prior to fatherhood. As such my routine was less changed than most.

    On a mundane level the greatest change (other than the obvious) is being able to relate to and talk to other parents, as well as being interested in children and babies in general. Prior to becoming a father I related to parents from the perspective of a child and was not much interested in other people’s children and babies. Now it’s a topic of great interest.

    Audacious Epigone had a very specific focus in his blog. He did one thing and did it very well. So no, there was no need for him to improve, but improvement is always welcome. And in any case it was highlighted precisely to point out AK’s unusual positive evolution, since being mentioned in the same conversation as AE is high praise indeed.

    • Thanks: Twinkie
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Thorfinnsson


    Prior to becoming a father I related to parents from the perspective of a child and was not much interested in other people’s children and babies. Now it’s a topic of great interest.
     
    I think I am older than you are in this journey (and I also have many more children), but I think for many men, including me to be sure, one big change fatherhood brings is one's orientation toward the community at large.

    There is a reason why single men tend to be more violent, anarchic, and, to put more positively, "ruggedly individualist." Having a woman, and more saliently, children tends to focus the attention more on community and all that it entails. One becomes aware of the necessity of civilization at a more personal and visceral level.

    And for a little fun:

    https://youtu.be/_nk3wBuvM-U?t=319

    Start at 5:19 mark. It's stereotypically Western couple vs. Chinese couple on having a baby, but might as well apply to couples who have parents nearby and those who don't.

  78. @Thorfinnsson
    @Twinkie

    Fatherhood changes priorities and the way you relate to both the world and other people, but for me I suspect less has changed than the usual new father. I have near complete scheduling freedom, a very good housewife, economic security, and had already abandoned most vices prior to fatherhood. As such my routine was less changed than most.

    On a mundane level the greatest change (other than the obvious) is being able to relate to and talk to other parents, as well as being interested in children and babies in general. Prior to becoming a father I related to parents from the perspective of a child and was not much interested in other people's children and babies. Now it's a topic of great interest.

    Audacious Epigone had a very specific focus in his blog. He did one thing and did it very well. So no, there was no need for him to improve, but improvement is always welcome. And in any case it was highlighted precisely to point out AK's unusual positive evolution, since being mentioned in the same conversation as AE is high praise indeed.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    Prior to becoming a father I related to parents from the perspective of a child and was not much interested in other people’s children and babies. Now it’s a topic of great interest.

    I think I am older than you are in this journey (and I also have many more children), but I think for many men, including me to be sure, one big change fatherhood brings is one’s orientation toward the community at large.

    There is a reason why single men tend to be more violent, anarchic, and, to put more positively, “ruggedly individualist.” Having a woman, and more saliently, children tends to focus the attention more on community and all that it entails. One becomes aware of the necessity of civilization at a more personal and visceral level.

    And for a little fun:

    Start at 5:19 mark. It’s stereotypically Western couple vs. Chinese couple on having a baby, but might as well apply to couples who have parents nearby and those who don’t.

  79. @Twinkie
    @Thorfinnsson


    That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.
     
    Sincere congratulations! I know it sounds hackneyed, but fatherhood really changes things, doesn't it?

    Also - and without meaning to sound patronizing at all - I must acknowledge too that your commenting quality has increased dramatically since I first encountered you on Unz. Please know that, while I do not necessarily agree with what you write, I do find your comments thought-stimulating and interesting, and hope to read more of them.

    Best regards,

    Twinkie

    P.S. About AE...

    The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I’m not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking
     
    Setting aside what you call his "financial doomerist thinking," which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE's modus operandi that needed improvement?

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @A123

    Setting aside what you call his “financial doomerist thinking,” which always puzzled me, was there really anything deficient in AE’s modus operandi that needed improvement?

    There were minor things he could have done better. That being said he did things much better than I could. Sometimes I felt a bit odd tossing comments in from the peanut gallery.

    Posting graphs of data was an incredibly useful tool. However, AE occasionally over looked interesting outliers in the data he presented. Or, left things in a less than intuitive format. For example, he had an excellent piece on SCOTUS that implied grouping of Justices, yet the accompanying graph showed the Justices in chronological order rather than the groups he was implying.

    I guess the best way to sum it up is, “AE was very effective, but there are periodically options to improve on the high standard that he set.”

    PEACE 😇

  80. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @A123

    It's all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @A123

    It’s all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    https://www.rt.com/news/537178-candace-owens-fat-vaccine-covid19/

  81. @Emil Nikola Richard
    @A123

    It's all the fat people increasing the angular momentum and slowing the rotation. Go on a diet you cretins you are killing the earth. Also: the graphics could be Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    Replies: @Mikhail, @A123

    Greta Therber in yoga pants.

    Do you mean Saint Greta Thunberg? In yoga pants?

    I now 100% agree with Barbarossa — we need an “EWWW!” button…

    And, even if you take away the yoga pants — We STILL need an “EWWW!” button…

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You could make something of that comment?!
    I'm still trying to figure out what looked like Greta "Thurber" in yoga pants...the windmills?

    Replies: @A123

  82. @Thorfinnsson
    I didn't get the chance to comment in the previous post (The Last Reaction), so I'll post my parting shot here.

    First and foremost, a standing ovation for Anatoly Karlin. I have been reading him for many years (long before he was picked up by Ron), and unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    You could compare and contrast him with some of the other writers here. The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I'm not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking that AK evolved beyond. If you compare to Steve Sailer, well Steve has been more or less saying the same thing for the past twenty years. No disrespect to Steve Sailer of course without whom many of us wouldn't even be here. And admittedly the distinction with Steve may have more to do with age than anything else.

    The content of AK's posts in combination with his wise choice not to moderate comments also led to an unusually excellent community. Wade elsewhere on the Unz Review and you get bombarded by anti-vax morons, low quality WW2 "revisionists", and weirdos like Thomm (who somehow made his way into this thread--guess he got lost searching for "white trashionalist" homo-sexuals to hit on). AK's commenters stand head and shoulders above them and nearly all others on the internet. Probably the worst regular commenters on AK's pieces are A123 and AaronB, who are really not that bad.

    As for me, I do intend to make the transition to Substack and thus you'll be able to keep up with me there. Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    See you all on Substack, though I will retain a presence on the Unz Review as well.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @AP, @sher singh, @BlackFlag

    Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    Thank you for sharing this excellent news!

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @AP


    I am now married
     
    I knew it! 😉


    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQJFNg7vON2ijZQkH86n53HkvTMZJ2ZXJ1t9g&usqp.jpg
  83. @A123
    @Emil Nikola Richard


    Greta Therber in yoga pants.
     
    Do you mean Saint Greta Thunberg? In yoga pants?

    I now 100% agree with Barbarossa -- we need an “EWWW!” button…

    And, even if you take away the yoga pants -- We STILL need an “EWWW!” button…


    PEACE 😇

     
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8Ehc7AX4AAm1SG.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    You could make something of that comment?!
    I’m still trying to figure out what looked like Greta “Thurber” in yoga pants…the windmills?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa


    You could make something of that comment?!
    I’m still trying to figure out what looked like Greta “Thurber” in yoga pants…the windmills?
     
    Intent as a humor post was quite clear. Mass is neither created nor destroyed by 'fatness', so the physics was an intentional joke.

    I am frequently a victim of Autocorrect and proper names are particularly bad. Thunberg is a guess, but I am 90% confident that is what he was going for.

    I concede, I am not sure how he got to placing her in yoga pants. Any visual of Thunberg is distressing and does not need such embellishment.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  84. @Max Payne
    I don't blame you for leaving.

    Perhaps Twitter is now filling the same niche that you once enjoyed here.

    Or the little spoken fact that more people are aware of the topics discussed here than 10 years ago and therefore no longer a rarity to find like-minded people.

    Maybe it's the fact you're published and want to distance yourself from cosplayers posting pictures of their ISIL-beards and decorative made-in-China toy swords (next to authors who post twirling swastikas and dancing elephants).


    It takes no effort to maintain this "community" of sniper-lurkers, shitposters, European gays, drunken Slav commies (gays & commies bro....), butter knife-wielding Indians, geezers-with-no-clue, and paid-trolls. A simple post with 3 links to mildly interesting topics is all it takes. A paywall will fracture this group, as a pirate paying for anything goes against my fundamental beliefs. As someone who openly shared scihub and library genesis I can't help but wonder if it's just a plan to shift gears away from writing online altogether.

    You've harvested all the younger blood on Unz Review and gathered them here. The rest of Unz Review is "muh white genocide" or "white nationals uber alles". Even Ronald wrote a piece about how his website turned into White Nationalist malarkey.

    You focused a small corner of it into transhumanism, games (don't listen to that queer that says those are bad, he probably uses an Apple), Russia, politics, the search for truth, crypto-rumors, "HBD" (this is a gay useless term), contrarian analysis...........

    I'm astonished how many people here are Indian. I told my brother I suspect the majority of engaged/commentating traffic on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are from places like India, Eastern Europe, and China e-stalking whites/Westerners. I'm starting to believe they constitute the largest portion of users who live more online than off.


    To Ron Unz:

    When is this....

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-x_SgGZPyWYI/YWfVWhublAI/AAAAAAAAHcA/T7cgaFND-L4RtmulAtyD4uVc9QAfeMh6ACLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/Screenshot8.jpg

    Going to look like a real forum like this:
    https://thepit.ja-galaxy-forum.com/
    An old 1999 game forum STILL ACTIVE (Jagged Alliance 2)

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @sher singh, @mal

    Hey, I still play Jagged Alliance 2, the 1.13 mod. The only game I know that lets you pick how racist and sexist you want to be and lets you choose which nationalities to hate.

    If you like turn based squad strategy games, 1.13 is a must play. I would recommend dialing disease options down though. While yes, espionage and covert biological warfare are a real deal in the game, managing reinfection rates for your teams can get overwhelming fast, even with proper medical tools and food/water disposal protocols.

    • Thanks: songbird
  85. Happy Dussehra (day of Warriors)

    [MORE]

    Much better w/o Paracord layer||
    Logitech Z263 review: 10/10 (prayers & war ballad songs mostly)

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  86. @Thorfinnsson
    I didn't get the chance to comment in the previous post (The Last Reaction), so I'll post my parting shot here.

    First and foremost, a standing ovation for Anatoly Karlin. I have been reading him for many years (long before he was picked up by Ron), and unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    You could compare and contrast him with some of the other writers here. The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I'm not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking that AK evolved beyond. If you compare to Steve Sailer, well Steve has been more or less saying the same thing for the past twenty years. No disrespect to Steve Sailer of course without whom many of us wouldn't even be here. And admittedly the distinction with Steve may have more to do with age than anything else.

    The content of AK's posts in combination with his wise choice not to moderate comments also led to an unusually excellent community. Wade elsewhere on the Unz Review and you get bombarded by anti-vax morons, low quality WW2 "revisionists", and weirdos like Thomm (who somehow made his way into this thread--guess he got lost searching for "white trashionalist" homo-sexuals to hit on). AK's commenters stand head and shoulders above them and nearly all others on the internet. Probably the worst regular commenters on AK's pieces are A123 and AaronB, who are really not that bad.

    As for me, I do intend to make the transition to Substack and thus you'll be able to keep up with me there. Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    See you all on Substack, though I will retain a presence on the Unz Review as well.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @AP, @sher singh, @BlackFlag

    Grats, also Swedes are the Gujjus of Europe||

    Had a 7/10 squat session, since I was under-recovered but I’ll pretend it was something else:

    So, I reviewed this again & it’s pretty good.

    https://www.elitefts.com/education/dave-tates-free-squat-manual/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  87. I hope I don’t lose track of Anatoly Karlin. The trouble is, I’m elderly and have too many sources for reading and now I’m drifting away towards Youtube. I sponsor a couple of dozen sources through Patreon and two at Substack, so adding that all up, I’d like to be setting my own contribution to Anatoly, more than zero and less than \$6.

    My science links http://sep.stanford.edu/sep/jon/ScienceChannels.pdf

    My political/sport links: http://sep.stanford.edu/sep/jon/SwingVotersCount.pdf

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Jon Claerbout

    Much appreciated! I comped you a membership for a year - looking forwards to having you around!

  88. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Twinkie

    Haha, but no, you're quite safe from such a revelation: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-7/

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Not Raul

    You’re part Italian?

    I suppose they had Italians in Odessa, like the architect Boffo.

    Did Togliatti father any children in Russia?

  89. @AP
    @Thorfinnsson


    Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.
     
    Thank you for sharing this excellent news!

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    I am now married

    I knew it! 😉

    [MORE]

  90. Kashmiri Pandit Sikh

    Also:

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  91. Hindu tried to dress up as a Sikh & tear up Sikh scripture at Tractor/Farmer protest.
    Singhs cut off his arm & leg, and let him bleed out on cam||

    Singhs said we’ll cremate him alongside PM||
    https://twitter.com/TheAngryLord – kvetching Hindu handle not posting vids here||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  92. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    You could make something of that comment?!
    I'm still trying to figure out what looked like Greta "Thurber" in yoga pants...the windmills?

    Replies: @A123

    You could make something of that comment?!
    I’m still trying to figure out what looked like Greta “Thurber” in yoga pants…the windmills?

    Intent as a humor post was quite clear. Mass is neither created nor destroyed by ‘fatness’, so the physics was an intentional joke.

    I am frequently a victim of Autocorrect and proper names are particularly bad. Thunberg is a guess, but I am 90% confident that is what he was going for.

    I concede, I am not sure how he got to placing her in yoga pants. Any visual of Thunberg is distressing and does not need such embellishment.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I got the joke on that half. The other half was mystery, wrapped in enigma, wrapped in bacon. It just didn't follow from your comment he replied to.

  93. @Jon Claerbout
    I hope I don't lose track of Anatoly Karlin. The trouble is, I'm elderly and have too many sources for reading and now I'm drifting away towards Youtube. I sponsor a couple of dozen sources through Patreon and two at Substack, so adding that all up, I'd like to be setting my own contribution to Anatoly, more than zero and less than $6.

    My science links http://sep.stanford.edu/sep/jon/ScienceChannels.pdf

    My political/sport links: http://sep.stanford.edu/sep/jon/SwingVotersCount.pdf

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Much appreciated! I comped you a membership for a year – looking forwards to having you around!

  94. @Barbarossa
    @Thomm

    I think we need an "EWWW!" button...

    Replies: @Thomm

    I think we need an “EWWW!” button…

    Perhaps. “EWWWW!” is correct because it is becoming more evident how pervasive the practice of homosexuality is within contemporary White Nationalism. I mean, the list I presented is of people here who are unable to indicate that they prefer a mulatto woman over a white man for sex. Even though this is an anonymous forum.

    This is also why they have no problem with transgenderism, since the race of the person did not change. The gender ‘transition’ is an unimportant detail to WNs, since the race did not change.

    This is why we don’t allow these degenerates into normal, heterosexual society. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but virtually zero are found in WN circles. The few that are happen to be age 70 or older.

    I don’t approve of these Trashionalists. No one of any merit does.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    @Thomm

    Would you say it's better to fuck a bitch (female dog) or a white man (hairless if required for erection)?

    No question dodging!

    Replies: @mal, @nebulafox

    , @Barbarossa
    @Thomm

    The real question is where they stand on trans-racialism?!

    Should Michael Jackson be considered as a candidate and how should he be classified?

    Would those commenters in question rather have sex with Michael Jackson (if theoretically raised from the dead) or a mulatto woman?

    I think there is a lot of unplumbed nuance to this whole question...

    Replies: @iffen

  95. @mal
    @Aedib

    Russia should consider converting those budget surpluses into GDP growth.

    Also, I disagree with them about lending being a limited source for growth - Russia is currently experiencing some inflation due to supply chain disruption, just like everybody else. But I don't think it's sustainable. Deflation will win out in the end unless drastic measures are taken. This means lower rates are coming to Russia in a year or two down the road, which will enable them to refinance quite profitably.

    Russian inflation rate runs about 2% above US, not bad at all. Lower rates are coming and that should be supportive for growth.

    Replies: @Aedib

    Budget surplus should be advisable for a couple of years more for replenish reserve funds. After that a 0 deficit/surplus will be OK. Also it should take some funds from the extraordinary gas/oil pricess to make a fund for financing strategic projects like Power of Siberia 2 (Trans-Mongolian pipeline). Once the Trans-Mongolian start to operate, the coercion capability of Eurocrats over Russia will be dead and the exposition of Chinese to American interdiction in the seas will suffer a big blow. This will be the last screw in the coffin of Western geo-economic dominance.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @mal
    @Aedib

    Agree on the pipeline stuff and avoiding seas for your critical supply chain needs.

    On budget policy, the thing is, all our money, be it euros, dollars (including Zimbabwean), or rubles, come from exactly the same place - thin air. All money today is fiat currency so the origin is exactly the same. And as global interest rates (current adventure notwithstanding) converge to zero, the risk premium will disappear as well.

    So for countries, it will come down to "who will finance my development"? For the developed world (US, EU, Japan), the answer is obvious - state managed private credit markets. And Chinese are desperately trying to recreate the same thing because they are not stupid/suicidal.

    But Russia doesn't really have a well developed private credit sector, even though they are making great progress in that area (in no small measure thanks to Nabiulina).

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it's full potential. Of which Russia has plenty.

    Granted, there are concerns around excessive inflation but Nabiullina has my full confidence there - she has been able to manage those extremely well before and her banking cartelization reform is a thing of beauty. She literally made Russia into a developed country with that.

    Anyway, TLDR - all money is fiat and comes from thin air, so the only real question is who gets to print it. Russia doesn't have well developed private banking sector yet, though they are making great progress. So by default, the job of printing money must fall to the state. (Budget deficit as long as inflation allows it to be productive).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  96. Lebanon is not just a failed state, but one which is divided by tribes.

    After the Nasrallah-shima blast, repairing the prior tenuous compromise is almost certainly impossible. The Maronite Christians and Druze would be foolish to trust the side directly responsible for The Port of Beirut’s devastation.

    The obvious & inevitable solution is the creation of separate nations.

    Alas, the tribal distribution within Lebanon is unfavourable. Muslims are concentrated both North and South. Partition based on current population would yield a non-viable Muslim enclave in the south. A viable partition would require significant relocation North to avoid the creation of a Southern “Bantustan”.

    Unfortunately, there does not yet appear to be the will for such a drastic, but effective, solution. The will probably be several futile, EU led, attempts to repair the original French construct before the Lebanese people embrace the concept of a difficult break-up.

    PEACE 😇

  97. @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    I think we need an “EWWW!” button…
     
    Perhaps. "EWWWW!" is correct because it is becoming more evident how pervasive the practice of homosexuality is within contemporary White Nationalism. I mean, the list I presented is of people here who are unable to indicate that they prefer a mulatto woman over a white man for sex. Even though this is an anonymous forum.

    This is also why they have no problem with transgenderism, since the race of the person did not change. The gender 'transition' is an unimportant detail to WNs, since the race did not change.

    This is why we don't allow these degenerates into normal, heterosexual society. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but virtually zero are found in WN circles. The few that are happen to be age 70 or older.

    I don't approve of these Trashionalists. No one of any merit does.

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Barbarossa

    Would you say it’s better to fuck a bitch (female dog) or a white man (hairless if required for erection)?

    No question dodging!

    • Replies: @mal
    @Thorfinnsson

    What's the breed of the bitch?

    Is the white man more like one of them Thai ladyboys (they look really white with makeup) or more Norwegian?

    Those would be important considerations.

    , @nebulafox
    @Thorfinnsson

    That depends. Is he as excellent company as Metrobius?

    Replies: @songbird

  98. @A123
    @Barbarossa


    You could make something of that comment?!
    I’m still trying to figure out what looked like Greta “Thurber” in yoga pants…the windmills?
     
    Intent as a humor post was quite clear. Mass is neither created nor destroyed by 'fatness', so the physics was an intentional joke.

    I am frequently a victim of Autocorrect and proper names are particularly bad. Thunberg is a guess, but I am 90% confident that is what he was going for.

    I concede, I am not sure how he got to placing her in yoga pants. Any visual of Thunberg is distressing and does not need such embellishment.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I got the joke on that half. The other half was mystery, wrapped in enigma, wrapped in bacon. It just didn’t follow from your comment he replied to.

  99. @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    I think we need an “EWWW!” button…
     
    Perhaps. "EWWWW!" is correct because it is becoming more evident how pervasive the practice of homosexuality is within contemporary White Nationalism. I mean, the list I presented is of people here who are unable to indicate that they prefer a mulatto woman over a white man for sex. Even though this is an anonymous forum.

    This is also why they have no problem with transgenderism, since the race of the person did not change. The gender 'transition' is an unimportant detail to WNs, since the race did not change.

    This is why we don't allow these degenerates into normal, heterosexual society. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but virtually zero are found in WN circles. The few that are happen to be age 70 or older.

    I don't approve of these Trashionalists. No one of any merit does.

    Replies: @Thorfinnsson, @Barbarossa

    The real question is where they stand on trans-racialism?!

    Should Michael Jackson be considered as a candidate and how should he be classified?

    Would those commenters in question rather have sex with Michael Jackson (if theoretically raised from the dead) or a mulatto woman?

    I think there is a lot of unplumbed nuance to this whole question…

    • Replies: @iffen
    @Barbarossa

    there is a lot of unplumbed nuance

    I'm not sure that Thomm not-a-dot is up for nuance, plumbed or not.

  100. @Barbarossa
    @Thomm

    The real question is where they stand on trans-racialism?!

    Should Michael Jackson be considered as a candidate and how should he be classified?

    Would those commenters in question rather have sex with Michael Jackson (if theoretically raised from the dead) or a mulatto woman?

    I think there is a lot of unplumbed nuance to this whole question...

    Replies: @iffen

    there is a lot of unplumbed nuance

    I’m not sure that Thomm not-a-dot is up for nuance, plumbed or not.

  101. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    Uh, Oh, Big Thomm is Callin’ names. You can’t ignore the questions now!

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Truth


    Uh, Oh, Big Thomm is Callin’ names. You can’t ignore the questions now!
     
    Look at how many of them are happy to say or at least confirm via omission that they would rather have sex with a white man than a mulatto woman. They already rank a black woman lower, but now even a mulatto woman is below a white man in terms of their preferred sexual partner.

    In a choice between Michael Moore and Halle Berry, they choose Michael Moore.

    I am glad that the true nature of these faggots is being revealed to the light of day.
  102. @Aedib
    @mal

    Budget surplus should be advisable for a couple of years more for replenish reserve funds. After that a 0 deficit/surplus will be OK. Also it should take some funds from the extraordinary gas/oil pricess to make a fund for financing strategic projects like Power of Siberia 2 (Trans-Mongolian pipeline). Once the Trans-Mongolian start to operate, the coercion capability of Eurocrats over Russia will be dead and the exposition of Chinese to American interdiction in the seas will suffer a big blow. This will be the last screw in the coffin of Western geo-economic dominance.

    Replies: @mal

    Agree on the pipeline stuff and avoiding seas for your critical supply chain needs.

    On budget policy, the thing is, all our money, be it euros, dollars (including Zimbabwean), or rubles, come from exactly the same place – thin air. All money today is fiat currency so the origin is exactly the same. And as global interest rates (current adventure notwithstanding) converge to zero, the risk premium will disappear as well.

    So for countries, it will come down to “who will finance my development”? For the developed world (US, EU, Japan), the answer is obvious – state managed private credit markets. And Chinese are desperately trying to recreate the same thing because they are not stupid/suicidal.

    But Russia doesn’t really have a well developed private credit sector, even though they are making great progress in that area (in no small measure thanks to Nabiulina).

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential. Of which Russia has plenty.

    Granted, there are concerns around excessive inflation but Nabiullina has my full confidence there – she has been able to manage those extremely well before and her banking cartelization reform is a thing of beauty. She literally made Russia into a developed country with that.

    Anyway, TLDR – all money is fiat and comes from thin air, so the only real question is who gets to print it. Russia doesn’t have well developed private banking sector yet, though they are making great progress. So by default, the job of printing money must fall to the state. (Budget deficit as long as inflation allows it to be productive).

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    Is that actually how it goes? Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency. By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else. If the government is somewhat sober about this (giving money to semi-productive parties, not diluting everyone else too much), it can appear to be functioning like a real bank with lending standards, credit limits, ROI, etc., but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.

    It may also happen that the private banking sector is not developed enough (i.e., insufficient capital) to finance all the creditworthy opportunities that a given economy presents, but that doesn't mean that whatever the government does as a "remedy" actually is a remedy. And if the government doesn't do too much "remedying", the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.

    Replies: @mal

  103. There is some signs of the coronavirus pandemic ending at least in the psychological space.

    Islamist terrorists finally “returning to the office” after a couple years remote.

    Norway bow-and-arrow attack ‘appears to be act of terror’

    “Police said the suspect, who they identified as 37-year-old Espen Andersen Bråthen, was a Muslim convert with previous criminal convictions who had previously been flagged as a possible Islamic extremist. ”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/norway-bow-arrow-attack-suspect-muslim-convert-police-radicalisation

    Counter-terrorism probe into fatal stabbing of UK MP David Amess

    “UK Conservative Party MP David Amess has died after he was stabbed several times at a constituency meeting in his Southend West constituency. A 25-year-old man was arrested at the scene on suspicion of murder. The investigation is being led by counter-terrorism police. PA sources said the man is believed to be a British national with Somali heritage.”

    https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2021/1015/1253959-uk-mp-stabbed/

    Meanwhile Taliban was already activating in Russia a couple weeks ago
    https://t.me/bazabazon/8201

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    At least the fellow with the bow was socially distanced. Knife attacks could spread Covid and are NOT socially responsible in these times. Kudos to Espen Andersen Bråthen for his consideration. Not really surprising since Norwegians are generally more conscientious than Brits.

    Good on them. All workers are essential workers.

    On a serious note, how credible is that last one on Taliban activating in Russia? I can't imagine that the Afghan Taliban would be remotely interested in being associated with that since it would alienate not only Russia but also China. The Taliban can't really afford to go slamming doors when they are in a worse position then when they were an insurgent force.
    I did an internet search and I couldn't find anything to corroborate the idea.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  104. I think Thomm asked a very insightful question:

    2) “In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?” (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Who is the first Jewish Woman who comes to mind (in this context)? Gal Gadot, the actress who portrays Wonder Woman. I have helpfully included a few pictures of her below [MORE].

    Any “NO” responses from male WN’s affirms the “WN’s are Homos” hypothesis.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

     

     

     

    &nbsp

    • Thanks: mal
    • Replies: @Truth
    @A123

    LMFAO!,

    Well, that IS a dude. It's a whole new Forking world, Old Sport, but I digress...

    https://archive.org/details/BitChute-MaU52o38ph9Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqQFcvnQt6Q

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  105. @A123
    I think Thomm asked a very insightful question:

    2) “In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?” (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).
     
    Who is the first Jewish Woman who comes to mind (in this context)? Gal Gadot, the actress who portrays Wonder Woman. I have helpfully included a few pictures of her below [MORE].

    Any "NO" responses from male WN's affirms the "WN's are Homos" hypothesis.

    PEACE 😇



     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9f/34/81/9f348137a6af93577fe61273f85e1a46.gif

     
    https://bestofcomicbooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/27-15.jpg

     
    https://www.hawtcelebs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/gal-gadot-in-bikini-for-blazer-magazine-2007-11.jpg

    &nbsp
    https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e4/ec/62/e4ec62843a0a0682b273714c965c3ade.jpg

    Replies: @Truth

    LMFAO!,

    Well, that IS a dude. It’s a whole new Forking world, Old Sport, but I digress…

    https://archive.org/details/BitChute-MaU52o38ph9Q

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Truth


    Well, that IS a dude
     
    Huh. As soon as I saw that you replied to A123 I KNEW you were going to say that. Must be that the old ESP is gettin' strong these days...

    I suppose that adds a whole extra wrinkle to Thomm's line of questioning. Does Gal Godot then represent a kind of... cutting of the Gordian knot in your mind?

    Replies: @A123

  106. @Truth
    @Thomm

    Uh, Oh, Big Thomm is Callin' names. You can't ignore the questions now!

    Replies: @Thomm

    Uh, Oh, Big Thomm is Callin’ names. You can’t ignore the questions now!

    Look at how many of them are happy to say or at least confirm via omission that they would rather have sex with a white man than a mulatto woman. They already rank a black woman lower, but now even a mulatto woman is below a white man in terms of their preferred sexual partner.

    In a choice between Michael Moore and Halle Berry, they choose Michael Moore.

    I am glad that the true nature of these faggots is being revealed to the light of day.

  107. @Thorfinnsson
    @Thomm

    Would you say it's better to fuck a bitch (female dog) or a white man (hairless if required for erection)?

    No question dodging!

    Replies: @mal, @nebulafox

    What’s the breed of the bitch?

    Is the white man more like one of them Thai ladyboys (they look really white with makeup) or more Norwegian?

    Those would be important considerations.

  108. @Truth
    @A123

    LMFAO!,

    Well, that IS a dude. It's a whole new Forking world, Old Sport, but I digress...

    https://archive.org/details/BitChute-MaU52o38ph9Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqQFcvnQt6Q

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Well, that IS a dude

    Huh. As soon as I saw that you replied to A123 I KNEW you were going to say that. Must be that the old ESP is gettin’ strong these days…

    I suppose that adds a whole extra wrinkle to Thomm’s line of questioning. Does Gal Godot then represent a kind of… cutting of the Gordian knot in your mind?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa

    Given that there are photos of Gal Gadot in yoga pants [MORE].

    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial "meat & two veg". Etcetera.

    Raising questions about Michelle Obama (no pictures provided) is one thing.

    But Gal Gadot? I am not seeing it. If you force me to keep reexamining her pictures, I guess I will have to suffer through repeated viewing.... For science... Not enjoyment... Really, I am not enjoying this....

    OK... I can not tell a lie... I am enjoying this....

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ff/1f/f9/ff1ff9a44aa8d5e12ac3aa0a62cc8139.png

     
    https://static1.therichestimages.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/gal-gadot-2-e1495833513252.jpg

     
    https://celebjihad.com/celeb-jihad/images/gal_gadot_pussy_abs_bikini.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Truth

  109. @mal
    @Aedib

    Agree on the pipeline stuff and avoiding seas for your critical supply chain needs.

    On budget policy, the thing is, all our money, be it euros, dollars (including Zimbabwean), or rubles, come from exactly the same place - thin air. All money today is fiat currency so the origin is exactly the same. And as global interest rates (current adventure notwithstanding) converge to zero, the risk premium will disappear as well.

    So for countries, it will come down to "who will finance my development"? For the developed world (US, EU, Japan), the answer is obvious - state managed private credit markets. And Chinese are desperately trying to recreate the same thing because they are not stupid/suicidal.

    But Russia doesn't really have a well developed private credit sector, even though they are making great progress in that area (in no small measure thanks to Nabiulina).

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it's full potential. Of which Russia has plenty.

    Granted, there are concerns around excessive inflation but Nabiullina has my full confidence there - she has been able to manage those extremely well before and her banking cartelization reform is a thing of beauty. She literally made Russia into a developed country with that.

    Anyway, TLDR - all money is fiat and comes from thin air, so the only real question is who gets to print it. Russia doesn't have well developed private banking sector yet, though they are making great progress. So by default, the job of printing money must fall to the state. (Budget deficit as long as inflation allows it to be productive).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.

    Is that actually how it goes? Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency. By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else. If the government is somewhat sober about this (giving money to semi-productive parties, not diluting everyone else too much), it can appear to be functioning like a real bank with lending standards, credit limits, ROI, etc., but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.

    It may also happen that the private banking sector is not developed enough (i.e., insufficient capital) to finance all the creditworthy opportunities that a given economy presents, but that doesn’t mean that whatever the government does as a “remedy” actually is a remedy. And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Is that actually how it goes?
     
    This is precisely and exactly how it goes. In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don't live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes. Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that's who. I guess they don't teach this in econ classes, but that's the fundamental truth of life.

    Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency.
     
    LOL no. They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That's what "fiat" means, by definition. There is no such thing as "solvency". You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    You are not wrong though. What you are saying - "neoliberalism is superior to socialism because private commercial banking system enriching the rich and corporations is better for optimizing corporate efficiency and thus the output" is absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Well, we are up to that debt level now, and sure, I fully support private sector initiative, but it's up to government now to step up and provide demand support. Like it has always done. Hopefully, without killing millions this time around.


    but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.
     
    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.
     
    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    In the past, when banks were used to measure risk, sure. But today, why? Why should banks enjoy high interest rate? They most certainly don't measure risk anymore (they get bailed out). So why? Why have high cost of money that is an imaginary product? Why?

    Inflation is one reason, but I really don't see any other, and government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Emil Nikola Richard, @GLT

  110. @Dmitry
    There is some signs of the coronavirus pandemic ending at least in the psychological space.

    Islamist terrorists finally "returning to the office" after a couple years remote.

    Norway bow-and-arrow attack ‘appears to be act of terror’


    "Police said the suspect, who they identified as 37-year-old Espen Andersen Bråthen, was a Muslim convert with previous criminal convictions who had previously been flagged as a possible Islamic extremist. "

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/norway-bow-arrow-attack-suspect-muslim-convert-police-radicalisation

    Counter-terrorism probe into fatal stabbing of UK MP David Amess


    "UK Conservative Party MP David Amess has died after he was stabbed several times at a constituency meeting in his Southend West constituency. A 25-year-old man was arrested at the scene on suspicion of murder. The investigation is being led by counter-terrorism police. PA sources said the man is believed to be a British national with Somali heritage."

    https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2021/1015/1253959-uk-mp-stabbed/


    Meanwhile Taliban was already activating in Russia a couple weeks ago
    https://t.me/bazabazon/8201

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    At least the fellow with the bow was socially distanced. Knife attacks could spread Covid and are NOT socially responsible in these times. Kudos to Espen Andersen Bråthen for his consideration. Not really surprising since Norwegians are generally more conscientious than Brits.

    Good on them. All workers are essential workers.

    On a serious note, how credible is that last one on Taliban activating in Russia? I can’t imagine that the Afghan Taliban would be remotely interested in being associated with that since it would alienate not only Russia but also China. The Taliban can’t really afford to go slamming doors when they are in a worse position then when they were an insurgent force.
    I did an internet search and I couldn’t find anything to corroborate the idea.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    In terms of nationality they are Tajiks and a Muslim convert, but they are described as Taliban members, and they were preparing IED attacks. So we can call them "Ekaterinburg Taliban".

    A surprising aspect of the Taliban, is they have been living quite centrally in the city.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXc1iq3UQ54

    Last year there was also the Islamic State in Ekaterinburg, that were all killed by the FSB, living in edges in South city.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkb9mWaSynU

    Within Ekaterinburg, apparently the Taliban are more fussy about real estate than ISIS.

    Replies: @mal

  111. Natalya Poklonskaya has been appointed as an ambassador in Cape Verde, which the media in Russia and Ukraine is joking about as a kind of “luxurious tropical exile”, as she was too independent in the parliament and voted against raising the pension age.

    This is a cute young woman prosecutor who was in Ukraine in 2014, and resigned during Euromaidan, went to Crimea, and then because of photogenic abilities was promoted or astroturfed a lot by the Russian media and internet in Surkov style, and eventually promoted in the parliament for United Russia.

    After she was promoted into the parliament, she originally fell into some religious cult thinking, and more recently became liberal, supporter of free speech, with moderate views about Russia-Ukraine relations. (She nowadays talks a little confused https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBJFTiFAI1c.)

    But even with her new moderate views and liberalism, Ukraine does not forgive – and is saying it wants to extradite her from Cape Verde. https://ria.ru/20211016/ekstraditsiya-1754833224.html

  112. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    Is that actually how it goes? Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency. By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else. If the government is somewhat sober about this (giving money to semi-productive parties, not diluting everyone else too much), it can appear to be functioning like a real bank with lending standards, credit limits, ROI, etc., but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.

    It may also happen that the private banking sector is not developed enough (i.e., insufficient capital) to finance all the creditworthy opportunities that a given economy presents, but that doesn't mean that whatever the government does as a "remedy" actually is a remedy. And if the government doesn't do too much "remedying", the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.

    Replies: @mal

    Is that actually how it goes?

    This is precisely and exactly how it goes. In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes. Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who. I guess they don’t teach this in econ classes, but that’s the fundamental truth of life.

    Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency.

    LOL no. They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition. There is no such thing as “solvency”. You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.

    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    You are not wrong though. What you are saying – “neoliberalism is superior to socialism because private commercial banking system enriching the rich and corporations is better for optimizing corporate efficiency and thus the output” is absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Well, we are up to that debt level now, and sure, I fully support private sector initiative, but it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support. Like it has always done. Hopefully, without killing millions this time around.

    but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    In the past, when banks were used to measure risk, sure. But today, why? Why should banks enjoy high interest rate? They most certainly don’t measure risk anymore (they get bailed out). So why? Why have high cost of money that is an imaginary product? Why?

    Inflation is one reason, but I really don’t see any other, and government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.
     
    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.
     
    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.
     
    Right, but that's the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.
     
    If you're not on the government's gravy train, there is. There's also it's obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.
     
    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., "inflation").


    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?
     
    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.
     
    Obviously, I don't disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you've reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.
     
    By ... printing more money? And giving it to ... whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.
     
    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.
     
    That's an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe "smartly get out of" by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?
     
    They shouldn't. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.
     
    Isn't monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it's not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    Replies: @mal, @mal, @mal, @Levtraro

    , @Emil Nikola Richard
    @mal


    I guess they don’t teach this in econ classes, but that’s the fundamental truth of life.
     
    1. when I was a college freshman our economics professor told us this at first class. His phrase was fixed in all our minds and I can still recall his voice intonation

    "Do you know what money is? It is marks in bankers' books."

    He was almost the most entertaining lecturer ever and the TA was a Marxist and confided to us that all the TA's hated the prof. Years later he had a soundbite joke on NPR.

    "Do you know how a doctor describes a healthy patient? One who hasn't gotten a complete workup yet."

    The topology of those jokes appears isomorphic to me but comedy defies analysis so we can't be too confident.

    2. college debt may be a factor. I used to play tennis with a fellow who was a medical student and he said every single one of them borrowed the max amount. And he told me the number that the max amount was for that year and it was one of the most shocking bits of information I ever heard. I don't even want to look at what the number is now. If the first medical student hasn't accumulated a million dollar debt yet they probably are going to get there by 2030.
    , @GLT
    @mal


    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.
     
    But they were specified in gold backed currency. Am I missing something?

    Replies: @mal

  113. @Barbarossa
    @Dmitry

    At least the fellow with the bow was socially distanced. Knife attacks could spread Covid and are NOT socially responsible in these times. Kudos to Espen Andersen Bråthen for his consideration. Not really surprising since Norwegians are generally more conscientious than Brits.

    Good on them. All workers are essential workers.

    On a serious note, how credible is that last one on Taliban activating in Russia? I can't imagine that the Afghan Taliban would be remotely interested in being associated with that since it would alienate not only Russia but also China. The Taliban can't really afford to go slamming doors when they are in a worse position then when they were an insurgent force.
    I did an internet search and I couldn't find anything to corroborate the idea.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    In terms of nationality they are Tajiks and a Muslim convert, but they are described as Taliban members, and they were preparing IED attacks. So we can call them “Ekaterinburg Taliban”.

    A surprising aspect of the Taliban, is they have been living quite centrally in the city.

    Last year there was also the Islamic State in Ekaterinburg, that were all killed by the FSB, living in edges in South city.

    Within Ekaterinburg, apparently the Taliban are more fussy about real estate than ISIS.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Dmitry

    ISIS had bad experience with real estate during Mosul bombings etc, so can you really blame them?

  114. @Dmitry
    @Barbarossa

    In terms of nationality they are Tajiks and a Muslim convert, but they are described as Taliban members, and they were preparing IED attacks. So we can call them "Ekaterinburg Taliban".

    A surprising aspect of the Taliban, is they have been living quite centrally in the city.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXc1iq3UQ54

    Last year there was also the Islamic State in Ekaterinburg, that were all killed by the FSB, living in edges in South city.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkb9mWaSynU

    Within Ekaterinburg, apparently the Taliban are more fussy about real estate than ISIS.

    Replies: @mal

    ISIS had bad experience with real estate during Mosul bombings etc, so can you really blame them?

  115. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Is that actually how it goes?
     
    This is precisely and exactly how it goes. In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don't live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes. Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that's who. I guess they don't teach this in econ classes, but that's the fundamental truth of life.

    Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency.
     
    LOL no. They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That's what "fiat" means, by definition. There is no such thing as "solvency". You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    You are not wrong though. What you are saying - "neoliberalism is superior to socialism because private commercial banking system enriching the rich and corporations is better for optimizing corporate efficiency and thus the output" is absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Well, we are up to that debt level now, and sure, I fully support private sector initiative, but it's up to government now to step up and provide demand support. Like it has always done. Hopefully, without killing millions this time around.


    but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.
     
    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.
     
    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    In the past, when banks were used to measure risk, sure. But today, why? Why should banks enjoy high interest rate? They most certainly don't measure risk anymore (they get bailed out). So why? Why have high cost of money that is an imaginary product? Why?

    Inflation is one reason, but I really don't see any other, and government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Emil Nikola Richard, @GLT

    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.

    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.

    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.

    Right, but that’s the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.

    If you’re not on the government’s gravy train, there is. There’s also it’s obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., “inflation”).

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.

    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.

    By … printing more money? And giving it to … whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.

    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    That’s an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    They shouldn’t. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    Isn’t monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it’s not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.

    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.
     
    Yep. Always has been. Welcome to the real world :)

    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.
     
    Again, absolutely correct. Now you can see why economics is easy when you strip it from bullshit.

    Right, but that’s the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.
     
    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector - they get to create whatever money they want. The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards. State, or banker fat cats? Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?
     
    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?
     
    I watch credit markets as a hobby, and 100% private debt to GDP is when I start making noises for state intervention. At 300% private sector debt to GDP, the need for state intervention becomes obvious to anybody with IQ above room temperature, and we are going to vastly higher ratios than that. By 2050, 500% private sector debt to GDP ratio will be perfectly normal. And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem. But state will have to be a part of the equation. Its inevitable.

    By … printing more money? And giving it to … whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

     

    Yep. Government has a duty to maintain corporate sales aka aggregate demand so that asset prices don't deviate too much from revenues. This means Universal Basic Income for the poors. Not to benefit the poors, but to maintain asset prices. That's how asset price mechanics work.

    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?
     
    WW2 definitely was. And so was WW1, and all other wars in history. Soldiers are simply Basic Income recipients, and government in wartime provides demand. Which is why war is so popular throughout history, but we really can do better once we are honest about the mechanism.

    That’s an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.
     
    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and "international investment community". Just like Weimar Germans did. Food farms are an entirely different question. In the real world, you seriously don't want to be a slave forever to "investment community", with infinite debt repayments. Both Zimbabweans and Germans understood that correctly.

    They shouldn’t. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    Welcome to the real world, that's how it has always been. State is always a part of the equation.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Barbarossa

    , @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?
     
    It will drive demand and investment in the service sector which is the most important sector in developed economies.

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that's like 80% of the entire economy. Russia is seriously underperforming in this respect, and budget deficit will help to close the gap.

    Replies: @utu, @Almost Missouri

    , @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Isn’t monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?
     
    So sorry for multiple quotes, entirely my fault. New phone and so on.

    But thats an important point. Yes, monetary policy is a type of government power.

    And LOL you just lived through "other" power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -$40/barrel.

    That's the power the government can use to control inflation.

    This was a test run for WW3 preparations (so is current "energy shortage"), but generally, government has more tools than mere monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    , @Levtraro
    @Almost Missouri


    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?
     
    I am working on that question, it is a sideshow though, so it's progressing slowly.
  116. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.
     
    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.
     
    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.
     
    Right, but that's the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.
     
    If you're not on the government's gravy train, there is. There's also it's obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.
     
    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., "inflation").


    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?
     
    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.
     
    Obviously, I don't disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you've reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.
     
    By ... printing more money? And giving it to ... whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.
     
    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.
     
    That's an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe "smartly get out of" by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?
     
    They shouldn't. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.
     
    Isn't monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it's not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    Replies: @mal, @mal, @mal, @Levtraro

    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Yep. Always has been. Welcome to the real world 🙂

    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    Again, absolutely correct. Now you can see why economics is easy when you strip it from bullshit.

    Right, but that’s the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector – they get to create whatever money they want. The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards. State, or banker fat cats? Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?

    I watch credit markets as a hobby, and 100% private debt to GDP is when I start making noises for state intervention. At 300% private sector debt to GDP, the need for state intervention becomes obvious to anybody with IQ above room temperature, and we are going to vastly higher ratios than that. By 2050, 500% private sector debt to GDP ratio will be perfectly normal. And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem. But state will have to be a part of the equation. Its inevitable.

    By … printing more money? And giving it to … whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    Yep. Government has a duty to maintain corporate sales aka aggregate demand so that asset prices don’t deviate too much from revenues. This means Universal Basic Income for the poors. Not to benefit the poors, but to maintain asset prices. That’s how asset price mechanics work.

    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    WW2 definitely was. And so was WW1, and all other wars in history. Soldiers are simply Basic Income recipients, and government in wartime provides demand. Which is why war is so popular throughout history, but we really can do better once we are honest about the mechanism.

    That’s an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and “international investment community”. Just like Weimar Germans did. Food farms are an entirely different question. In the real world, you seriously don’t want to be a slave forever to “investment community”, with infinite debt repayments. Both Zimbabweans and Germans understood that correctly.

    They shouldn’t. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    Welcome to the real world, that’s how it has always been. State is always a part of the equation.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal



    the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.
     
    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector – they get to create whatever money they want.
     
    But if they give it to someone who doesn't pay it back, then they're effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.

    The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards.
     
    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.

    Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.
     
    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.


    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?
     
    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.
     
    Just a note on nomenclature, since I gather we are using slightly different terminology: when I say "banking cartel", I am referring to the crony pseudo-banks that exist off government fiat money, as opposed to (increasingly rare) real banks that have to balance their books, make productive loans, etc. The banking cartel get their money from the government fiat (i.e., mass dilution) operations. (Yes, they often have some legitimate banking operations as well, but let us not be deceived by their window dressing into mistaking their main activity.)

    And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem.
     
    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?

    But currently, the only macro-significant negative interest rates I am aware of is the negative interest rates that depositors "get" (i.e., pay) at the European central banks (i.e., crony fiat money presses).


    But state will have to be a part of the equation.
     
    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that's arguably why inflation is such a problem.

    Its inevitable.
     
    I don't know if it is or not, but it certainly is something of a self-licking ice-cream cone: demand government intervention to fix the distortions caused by government intervention.


    what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating?
     
    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and “international investment community”.
     
    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn't. They're still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars. Zimbabwe only hyperinflated their way out of having their own currency. The Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist.

    Just like Weimar Germans did.
     
    Eh, they didn't get out of it either. They were levied in gold. Germany only finished paying off the "reparations" in 2010, 91 years after they were levied.

    Brennus may have been a hard man, but he was much more honest than the Allied victors in the Word Wars.

    P.S. No worries about the separate replies. It's actually easier than one big reply.

    Replies: @mal

    , @Barbarossa
    @mal

    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.

    Considering that we have to have perpetual growth for the party to continue, it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
    It seems a worthwhile point that the dynamics of the post industrial revolution world are a complete historical anomaly and not guaranteed to continue on a linear progressive track.
    I suppose some of this comes down to how much faith one has in the ability of technological progress to save our bacon. AK would doubtless have high faith, but I am much more skeptical.

    Replies: @mal

  117. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.
     
    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.
     
    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.
     
    Right, but that's the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.
     
    If you're not on the government's gravy train, there is. There's also it's obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.
     
    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., "inflation").


    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?
     
    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.
     
    Obviously, I don't disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you've reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.
     
    By ... printing more money? And giving it to ... whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.
     
    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.
     
    That's an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe "smartly get out of" by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?
     
    They shouldn't. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.
     
    Isn't monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it's not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    Replies: @mal, @mal, @mal, @Levtraro

    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    It will drive demand and investment in the service sector which is the most important sector in developed economies.

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that’s like 80% of the entire economy. Russia is seriously underperforming in this respect, and budget deficit will help to close the gap.

    • Replies: @utu
    @mal


    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders.
     
    Do you really want to put a middle man between this consumer and his bottle? What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?

    https://i.ibb.co/dkc3fnh/Jobcreation.png

    Replies: @mal

    , @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that’s like 80% of the entire economy.
     
    That may be true, but it is not necessarily commendable. If 80% of your economy is bureaucrats buying toxic drinks to piss them out a few hours later, then 80% of your economy is bullsh*t, and you would be no worse off if that 80% disappeared.

    I recognize that on paper this kind of thing drives up the all-holy GDP, but such GDP fetishism is as deluded as a car owner saying, "my engine RPMs are way up, so I must be reaching my destinations much faster" while his transmission is slipping, or a homeowner saying, "My house is freezing! If I could just make the reading on this thermometer be higher then everything would be fine!" while breathing on the thermometer bulb to raise the "temperature".

    It is entirely possible to log transactions that create no value or even destroy value. But this obvious fact at micro-scale is somehow lost at macro-scale because in GDP-universe everything is recorded at |absolute value| so macroeconomists are congenitally unable to distinguish between value creation and value destruction. It is almost a form of psychosis.

    "GDP just doubled because everyone bought poison to kill their neighbor. Things are great!"
    —Macroeconomists

    If Russia is wise, it will not follow the West down the shaded path of GDP worship.

    Replies: @mal

  118. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?
     
    It will drive demand and investment in the service sector which is the most important sector in developed economies.

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that's like 80% of the entire economy. Russia is seriously underperforming in this respect, and budget deficit will help to close the gap.

    Replies: @utu, @Almost Missouri

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders.

    Do you really want to put a middle man between this consumer and his bottle? What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?

    • Replies: @mal
    @utu


    What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?
     
    No such thing. State of course must encourage private initiative but fundamentally in a nation, we are all in this together, and so the state has the duty to the less fortunate. And of course, in return, state has the right to request certain services from the less fortunate. Nothing evil or impossible, but if the state provides for your well being, it is well within state's right to ask for a modest service in return. Like clean your street or something. Basically, we don't want the poors starving, but we don't want to end up with Camden, New Jersey everywhere either.

    I respect libertarian worldview, but it ultimately covers the >100 IQ crowd. Which is fine, but those people will always be OK. The biggest problem for any society is what to do with <100 IQ citizens. And no, we are not going to genocide them. Both the smart people and the stupid people need to know that their real allegiance and duty is to the state. And that the state knows it has both duties and privileges, clearly outlined, with respect to the people. Basically, state must work to maximize both corporate freedom and comfort levels for the less fortunate. And in return, of course, state has the right to demand modest services from the people.

    Again, remember, we are all in this together, with our duties and privileges as it befits a nation, nobody should be excluded, for better or worse. None of this "self sufficiency" nonsense.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Triteleia Laxa

  119. @utu
    @mal


    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders.
     
    Do you really want to put a middle man between this consumer and his bottle? What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?

    https://i.ibb.co/dkc3fnh/Jobcreation.png

    Replies: @mal

    What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?

    No such thing. State of course must encourage private initiative but fundamentally in a nation, we are all in this together, and so the state has the duty to the less fortunate. And of course, in return, state has the right to request certain services from the less fortunate. Nothing evil or impossible, but if the state provides for your well being, it is well within state’s right to ask for a modest service in return. Like clean your street or something. Basically, we don’t want the poors starving, but we don’t want to end up with Camden, New Jersey everywhere either.

    I respect libertarian worldview, but it ultimately covers the >100 IQ crowd. Which is fine, but those people will always be OK. The biggest problem for any society is what to do with <100 IQ citizens. And no, we are not going to genocide them. Both the smart people and the stupid people need to know that their real allegiance and duty is to the state. And that the state knows it has both duties and privileges, clearly outlined, with respect to the people. Basically, state must work to maximize both corporate freedom and comfort levels for the less fortunate. And in return, of course, state has the right to demand modest services from the people.

    Again, remember, we are all in this together, with our duties and privileges as it befits a nation, nobody should be excluded, for better or worse. None of this "self sufficiency" nonsense.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    @mal

    So, basically the state is your God & you're condemning yourself to be defeated by any religious people
    Whether, Catholics, SJW, Islam etc.

    Did you know the 17th C is over??
    Nationalism is fake & gay, also dead.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @mal

    Your comments on this thread are really good. People should try their best to understand them. The observations on money and the economy are spot on, while noticing that "in the real world" everyone was always in it together in a way, and that there will be no genocide of the less able, is critical to understanding. I particularly like your point that we should be honest about the previous purpose of the big wars and therefore find a way to achieve the same thing, but with far less suffering.

    I always liked libertarian economics. Partly because I have no reason nor desire to take from others, but, just as importantly, because things like the non-aggression principle would assert my own boundaries when I was loathe to do so directly and more generally. My attachment to such definitions of right and wrong weakened as I learned to not always accept other people's burdens.

    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?

    Also thanks.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

  120. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.
     
    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.
     
    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.
     
    Right, but that's the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.
     
    If you're not on the government's gravy train, there is. There's also it's obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.
     
    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., "inflation").


    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?
     
    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.
     
    Obviously, I don't disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you've reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.
     
    By ... printing more money? And giving it to ... whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.
     
    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.
     
    That's an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe "smartly get out of" by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?
     
    They shouldn't. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.
     
    Isn't monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it's not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    Replies: @mal, @mal, @mal, @Levtraro

    Isn’t monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    So sorry for multiple quotes, entirely my fault. New phone and so on.

    But thats an important point. Yes, monetary policy is a type of government power.

    And LOL you just lived through “other” power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -\$40/barrel.

    That’s the power the government can use to control inflation.

    This was a test run for WW3 preparations (so is current “energy shortage”), but generally, government has more tools than mere monetary policy.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    you just lived through “other” power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -$40/barrel.
     
    Okay, but

    1) governments didn't "shut down the economy" (more accurately, restrict certain types of commerce) to control inflation. They did it to control a virus.

    2) The restrictions' effects on prices were varied. Some prices went down (oil). Some prices went up (construction materials).

    3) Among the commodities whose prices went down, they soon went back up, and typically higher than they were before, so even if the restrictions were intended to control inflation, their "success" was only very scattered and only very temporary, which is to say, they didn't really work.

    4) Meanwhile, whatever happened in the early months of 2020, prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy (in this case, incontinent money printing), so it still looks like money printing is the main thing—and perhaps only thing—that matters for inflation, which shouldn't be too surprising since "inflation" literally means that the money supply has outstripped the assets that it is supposed to represent.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

  121. @mal
    @utu


    What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?
     
    No such thing. State of course must encourage private initiative but fundamentally in a nation, we are all in this together, and so the state has the duty to the less fortunate. And of course, in return, state has the right to request certain services from the less fortunate. Nothing evil or impossible, but if the state provides for your well being, it is well within state's right to ask for a modest service in return. Like clean your street or something. Basically, we don't want the poors starving, but we don't want to end up with Camden, New Jersey everywhere either.

    I respect libertarian worldview, but it ultimately covers the >100 IQ crowd. Which is fine, but those people will always be OK. The biggest problem for any society is what to do with <100 IQ citizens. And no, we are not going to genocide them. Both the smart people and the stupid people need to know that their real allegiance and duty is to the state. And that the state knows it has both duties and privileges, clearly outlined, with respect to the people. Basically, state must work to maximize both corporate freedom and comfort levels for the less fortunate. And in return, of course, state has the right to demand modest services from the people.

    Again, remember, we are all in this together, with our duties and privileges as it befits a nation, nobody should be excluded, for better or worse. None of this "self sufficiency" nonsense.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Triteleia Laxa

    So, basically the state is your God & you’re condemning yourself to be defeated by any religious people
    Whether, Catholics, SJW, Islam etc.

    Did you know the 17th C is over??
    Nationalism is fake & gay, also dead.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  122. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don’t live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes.
     
    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.

    Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that’s who.
     
    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.

    They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That’s what “fiat” means, by definition.
     
    Right, but that's the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    There is no such thing as “solvency”.
     
    If you're not on the government's gravy train, there is. There's also it's obverse, insolvency.

    You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.
     
    Again, true for the politically connected. For everyone else, enjoy the the dilution (a.k.a., "inflation").


    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?
     
    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.
     
    Obviously, I don't disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you've reached it?

    it’s up to government now to step up and provide demand support.
     
    By ... printing more money? And giving it to ... whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

    without killing millions this time around.
     
    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?

    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.
     
    That's an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe "smartly get out of" by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.

    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?
     
    They shouldn't. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.
     
    Isn't monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?

    Anyhow, fun as all this is, it's not the original reason I replied to your comment, which was to clarify this:

    So without state providing credit (via budget deficit) to the private sector, Russia will be doomed to suboptimal GDP growth rate, and state will not be able to realize it’s full potential.
     
    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?

    Replies: @mal, @mal, @mal, @Levtraro

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?

    I am working on that question, it is a sideshow though, so it’s progressing slowly.

  123. Discord is absolutely the best option imho. Been using it for anime-related stuff.

    • Disagree: Yevardian
  124. @Ron Unz

    Mr. Unz,

    Response here to avoid unnecessary clutter in AK’s “goodbye” thread.

    how easily bioweapons can get out of hand in unexpected ways,

    Why believe the behaviour is unexpected?

    — It is much more likely that world wide spread was a FEATURE, not a bug.
    — Selecting a highly mutable virus that can justify BigPharma booster shots… Also, a FEATURE, not a bug.

    One can listen to the wind and hear the impending BigPharma Establishment marketing campaign — Have you had this year’s Corona-λ booster? Do not worry, medical professionals are already working on boosters for Corona-µ, Corona-ʊ, Corona-θ… to keep you safe and frequently injected.

    Under my analysis, Covid epidemic was probably released by faction of the right-Neocons, who really aren’t that distant from the left-Neocons current running our government. I just don’t think it’s a good idea to have our government run by the same sort of people who unleashed Covid

    Why believe that the Anti-American rogue operation was limited to U.S. residents?

    An array of much simpler options becomes available when the goal is, “attacking both Trump2020 and China”. Trump had many enemies in Europe and Asia as well as America. It is not unreasonable to believe that China-based Trump enemies were also involved. This makes an intentional release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology [WIV] highly plausible.

    There are documented ties between:
        • U.S. based Trump haters
        • NIH sponsored Coronavirus research
        • China’s WIV

    Why insist on an elusive, complex, shadowy conspiracy when an openly admitted conspiracy can fill the role?

    America seems headed straight off a cliff right now, in numerous different ways. … We’ve suffered around a million dead from Covid

    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions. Their premature departure while sad is Largely an acceleration of the inevitable.

    We cannot know for sure until after well after the fact. However, I feel comfortable predicting a survival bonus “Death Deficit” over the next 3-5 years that will mathematically net has out almost all of the “Excess Deaths”.

    a total disruption of our society.

    Scientific reality shows that most of the disruption is unnecessary.

    Children rarely catch WUHAN-19. And, recover quickly. Forcing children to wear masks is intentional & malicious disruption to bolster science denial and fear mongering.

    The extremist “Manda-Vaxxers” have run head long in to scientifically well grounded “Vaxx-Realism”. Why take an experimental vaccine, when there are scientifically sound reasons not to? Examples include (but are not limited to):

    -1- Near zero death rate for those who are younger and have no pre-existing conditions.
    -2- Having lived through the disease, already have near total resistance from immune system function.
    -3- Can usually be effectively treated using inexpensive, over the counter medicines such as HCQ and “horse paste” Ivermectin.
    ___

    Disruption is made much worse by government insistence on “Manda-vaxx” science denial. Firing high quality staff, who are science realists, makes no economic sense. It further cripples & disrupts the economy in already short staffed fields.

    Serious crime, especially homicides, have increased at the highest rate ever recorded. Last year, 200 of our cities suffered unprecedented waves of rioting, looting, and burning, the worst in at least two generations. Ideological conflict has almost never been this bitter in the past, with a substantial fraction of the population believing that the last election was stolen.

    All of a which is 100% caused by the SJW Globalist DNC.

    Before MAGA, the American people were genuinely stuck. Their options were SJW/DNC versus Globalist/GOP. Which is worse, racial agitators versus MegaCorporations?

    The political realignment that Trump brought is a 100+ year magnitude event. The MAGA GOP is now “The Workers Party”.. Admittedly, it is still work in progress to make it stick. Swamp critters like Liz Cheney still need to be sent home in shame & disrepute.

    Even more important — All of the plagues targeting Worker Citizens are lining up with the DNC. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is now supporting Democrats. NeoCons, like Bill Kristol, have returned to their roots as NeoConDemocrats. And, of course enemies of traditional Judeo-Christian values remain DNC.

    MAGA GOP candidates get to run against Wall Street Rainbows.
      

    The correct emblem for MAGA is not the Lion. MAGA is the PHOENIX rising from the ashes that the DNC have created by burning cities.

      

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1)
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2020/08/28/the-bloom-is-off-the-ruse-tom-donohue-and-u-s-chamber-of-commerce-announce-support-for-far-left-democrats-in-2020/

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123


    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions. .
     
    Also they were mostly white and Republican.

    Their premature departure while sad is Largely an acceleration of the inevitable.
     
    ...largely acceleration of inevitable white christian voter replacement - truly stable genius idea of killing your own voters faster while having relatively razor thin election margins in some crucial places ;)

    Replies: @A123

  125. I find it remarkable that Tyson Fury is 6’9″.

    Would not have thought Irish Travellers have a big enough genepool to catch all those variants, or that they could be found among an endogamous, low class people.

  126. @Barbarossa
    @Truth


    Well, that IS a dude
     
    Huh. As soon as I saw that you replied to A123 I KNEW you were going to say that. Must be that the old ESP is gettin' strong these days...

    I suppose that adds a whole extra wrinkle to Thomm's line of questioning. Does Gal Godot then represent a kind of... cutting of the Gordian knot in your mind?

    Replies: @A123

    Given that there are photos of Gal Gadot in yoga pants [MORE].

    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial “meat & two veg”. Etcetera.

    Raising questions about Michelle Obama (no pictures provided) is one thing.

    But Gal Gadot? I am not seeing it. If you force me to keep reexamining her pictures, I guess I will have to suffer through repeated viewing…. For science… Not enjoyment… Really, I am not enjoying this….

    OK… I can not tell a lie… I am enjoying this….

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

     
     
     

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    No worries. I don't think that Gal Godot is a man in the least.

    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I'm not sure there are any non tranny women. Also tying into Thomm's rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
    It was intended satirically.

    Replies: @A123, @Truth

    , @Truth
    @A123


    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial “meat & two veg”. Etcetera.
     
    LMAO, that's because they've been removed before he ever hit puberty, Old Sport. The more things change...

    - A castrati promised fame and fortune for a family. Parents sought out surgeons or completed the procedure themselves; at the height of the castrati in the early 18th century, around 4,000 boys were castrated each year (Pleasants, 38).

     

    Effects & Physical Marks
    "The castrato represented a theatrical Imitation of the erotically charged boy" (Freitas, 214).

    -Retained high boyish voice; a boy's larynx inside a man's body
    -Did not develop an Adam's apple
    - Grew unnaturally tall; very long arms and legs

    -Enlarged chest cavity: "his lung capacity and diaphragmatic support would b augmented to an extraordinary degree, enabling him to sustain the emission of breath in the projection of tone up to a minute or more...beyond the ability of most normal adult singers" (Pleasants, 42).
    -Pale complexion
    -Beardless

    -Soft, feminine body due to abnormal fat disposition in the breasts, hips and thighs

     

    https://bodyofthecastrati.weebly.com/il-castrato.html
  127. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Is that actually how it goes?
     
    This is precisely and exactly how it goes. In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don't live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes. Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that's who. I guess they don't teach this in econ classes, but that's the fundamental truth of life.

    Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency.
     
    LOL no. They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That's what "fiat" means, by definition. There is no such thing as "solvency". You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    You are not wrong though. What you are saying - "neoliberalism is superior to socialism because private commercial banking system enriching the rich and corporations is better for optimizing corporate efficiency and thus the output" is absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Well, we are up to that debt level now, and sure, I fully support private sector initiative, but it's up to government now to step up and provide demand support. Like it has always done. Hopefully, without killing millions this time around.


    but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.
     
    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.
     
    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    In the past, when banks were used to measure risk, sure. But today, why? Why should banks enjoy high interest rate? They most certainly don't measure risk anymore (they get bailed out). So why? Why have high cost of money that is an imaginary product? Why?

    Inflation is one reason, but I really don't see any other, and government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Emil Nikola Richard, @GLT

    I guess they don’t teach this in econ classes, but that’s the fundamental truth of life.

    1. when I was a college freshman our economics professor told us this at first class. His phrase was fixed in all our minds and I can still recall his voice intonation

    “Do you know what money is? It is marks in bankers’ books.”

    He was almost the most entertaining lecturer ever and the TA was a Marxist and confided to us that all the TA’s hated the prof. Years later he had a soundbite joke on NPR.

    “Do you know how a doctor describes a healthy patient? One who hasn’t gotten a complete workup yet.”

    The topology of those jokes appears isomorphic to me but comedy defies analysis so we can’t be too confident.

    2. college debt may be a factor. I used to play tennis with a fellow who was a medical student and he said every single one of them borrowed the max amount. And he told me the number that the max amount was for that year and it was one of the most shocking bits of information I ever heard. I don’t even want to look at what the number is now. If the first medical student hasn’t accumulated a million dollar debt yet they probably are going to get there by 2030.

    • Agree: mal
  128. @A123
    @Barbarossa

    Given that there are photos of Gal Gadot in yoga pants [MORE].

    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial "meat & two veg". Etcetera.

    Raising questions about Michelle Obama (no pictures provided) is one thing.

    But Gal Gadot? I am not seeing it. If you force me to keep reexamining her pictures, I guess I will have to suffer through repeated viewing.... For science... Not enjoyment... Really, I am not enjoying this....

    OK... I can not tell a lie... I am enjoying this....

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ff/1f/f9/ff1ff9a44aa8d5e12ac3aa0a62cc8139.png

     
    https://static1.therichestimages.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/gal-gadot-2-e1495833513252.jpg

     
    https://celebjihad.com/celeb-jihad/images/gal_gadot_pussy_abs_bikini.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Truth

    No worries. I don’t think that Gal Godot is a man in the least.

    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I’m not sure there are any non tranny women. Also tying into Thomm’s rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
    It was intended satirically.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa

    I probably should have replied to Thomm, not you.

    I am a trifle perplexed. How can he post a question about Jewish woman while denying they exist?

    PEACE 😇

    , @Truth
    @Barbarossa


    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I’m not sure there are any non tranny women.
     
    Poke me? LOL, I'm not the one lusting after dudes.

    Also tying into Thomm’s rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
     
    You still didn't answer the question, Old Sport; Plate of raw oysters and a stack of porn in a beautiful hotel room, who are you inviting up for an amorous evening, Matt Damon or Candace Owens?

    Replies: @A123, @Barbarossa

  129. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    No worries. I don't think that Gal Godot is a man in the least.

    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I'm not sure there are any non tranny women. Also tying into Thomm's rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
    It was intended satirically.

    Replies: @A123, @Truth

    I probably should have replied to Thomm, not you.

    I am a trifle perplexed. How can he post a question about Jewish woman while denying they exist?

    PEACE 😇

  130. Would like to see the PSAT/SAT/LSAT/GMAT etc., etc. taken over and put under more benevelant leadership.

    First of all, force them to include TFR stats about women completing different degrees. Then include info about dysgenics and fertility drop off. Hit the high percentile achievers with the message that they should have more kids, and more schooling isn’t necessarily the right way to achieve that.

    Bring back analogies and use them for propaganda.

    Hit high performing immigrants with messages about brain drain and how they should assist in developing their native countries.

  131. 😂 Open Thread Humor 😁

    As we have been granted a reprieve….

    [MORE] funnies.

    PEACE 😇

     
     

    [MORE]

     
     
     
     
     
     

  132. @A123
    @Barbarossa

    Given that there are photos of Gal Gadot in yoga pants [MORE].

    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial "meat & two veg". Etcetera.

    Raising questions about Michelle Obama (no pictures provided) is one thing.

    But Gal Gadot? I am not seeing it. If you force me to keep reexamining her pictures, I guess I will have to suffer through repeated viewing.... For science... Not enjoyment... Really, I am not enjoying this....

    OK... I can not tell a lie... I am enjoying this....

    PEACE 😇

     
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ff/1f/f9/ff1ff9a44aa8d5e12ac3aa0a62cc8139.png

     
    https://static1.therichestimages.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/gal-gadot-2-e1495833513252.jpg

     
    https://celebjihad.com/celeb-jihad/images/gal_gadot_pussy_abs_bikini.jpg

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Truth

    Hip structure definitely female. No place to hide the proverbial “meat & two veg”. Etcetera.

    LMAO, that’s because they’ve been removed before he ever hit puberty, Old Sport. The more things change…

    – A castrati promised fame and fortune for a family. Parents sought out surgeons or completed the procedure themselves; at the height of the castrati in the early 18th century, around 4,000 boys were castrated each year (Pleasants, 38).

    Effects & Physical Marks
    “The castrato represented a theatrical Imitation of the erotically charged boy” (Freitas, 214).

    -Retained high boyish voice; a boy’s larynx inside a man’s body
    -Did not develop an Adam’s apple
    – Grew unnaturally tall; very long arms and legs

    -Enlarged chest cavity: “his lung capacity and diaphragmatic support would b augmented to an extraordinary degree, enabling him to sustain the emission of breath in the projection of tone up to a minute or more…beyond the ability of most normal adult singers” (Pleasants, 42).
    -Pale complexion
    -Beardless

    -Soft, feminine body due to abnormal fat disposition in the breasts, hips and thighs

    https://bodyofthecastrati.weebly.com/il-castrato.html

  133. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    No worries. I don't think that Gal Godot is a man in the least.

    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I'm not sure there are any non tranny women. Also tying into Thomm's rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
    It was intended satirically.

    Replies: @A123, @Truth

    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I’m not sure there are any non tranny women.

    Poke me? LOL, I’m not the one lusting after dudes.

    Also tying into Thomm’s rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.

    You still didn’t answer the question, Old Sport; Plate of raw oysters and a stack of porn in a beautiful hotel room, who are you inviting up for an amorous evening, Matt Damon or Candace Owens?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Truth

    Candace Owens? Why use her as an example?

    If you want to pose the question, spread the reach a little wider and you can find 1/2 African, Emanuela De Paula from Brazil.

    I would try to say that I will not enjoy adding Emanuela De Paula pictures under [MORE] -- But it would be a lie.
    ____

    The most interest looking actress I can think of (from ~10 years ago) is Dichen Lachman. Born in Kathmandu, Nepal, to a Tibetan mother and Australian father.

     
    https://healthyceleb.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Dichen-Lachman-as-seen-in-September-2020.jpg



    Emanuela De Paula

     
    https://media.giphy.com/media/10HOXSpviXOKOc/giphy.gif

     
    https://www.12thblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Emanuela-de-Paula-36.jpg

     
    https://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/5795710/740full-emanuela-de-paula.jpg

    Replies: @Truth

    , @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    -adjusts monocle-
    Look here Old Sport, while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, "dusky races" as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
    Good Lord!

    Replies: @Thomm, @Truth, @Truth

  134. Singapore is doomed to be an IQ shredder, until they fully harness the power of the atom.

  135. One of my posts in this thread was still not approved, and disappeared in the spam folder.

    AK has provided such an excellent moderation all these years.

    Sadly I guess he is in moving office stage, and the new moderation will go much more slow?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Dmitry

    Checked, not in spam or deleted. There was a site update earlier today; that might have eaten the comment, unfortunately.

    Replies: @Max Demian

  136. @Truth
    @Barbarossa


    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I’m not sure there are any non tranny women.
     
    Poke me? LOL, I'm not the one lusting after dudes.

    Also tying into Thomm’s rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
     
    You still didn't answer the question, Old Sport; Plate of raw oysters and a stack of porn in a beautiful hotel room, who are you inviting up for an amorous evening, Matt Damon or Candace Owens?

    Replies: @A123, @Barbarossa

    Candace Owens? Why use her as an example?

    If you want to pose the question, spread the reach a little wider and you can find 1/2 African, Emanuela De Paula from Brazil.

    I would try to say that I will not enjoy adding Emanuela De Paula pictures under [MORE] — But it would be a lie.
    ____

    The most interest looking actress I can think of (from ~10 years ago) is Dichen Lachman. Born in Kathmandu, Nepal, to a Tibetan mother and Australian father.

     

    [MORE]

    Emanuela De Paula

     

     

     

    • Replies: @Truth
    @A123

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I'd have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    I mean, I don't find Rosie O'donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, "Rosie, turn off all of the lights so I can think about someone else and I hope you know how to give head to get me started."

    Replies: @Thomm, @nebulafox, @A123

  137. @A123
    @Ron Unz

    Mr. Unz,

    Response here to avoid unnecessary clutter in AK's "goodbye" thread.


    how easily bioweapons can get out of hand in unexpected ways,

     

    Why believe the behaviour is unexpected?

    -- It is much more likely that world wide spread was a FEATURE, not a bug.
    -- Selecting a highly mutable virus that can justify BigPharma booster shots... Also, a FEATURE, not a bug.

    One can listen to the wind and hear the impending BigPharma Establishment marketing campaign -- Have you had this year's Corona-λ booster? Do not worry, medical professionals are already working on boosters for Corona-µ, Corona-ʊ, Corona-θ... to keep you safe and frequently injected.


    Under my analysis, Covid epidemic was probably released by faction of the right-Neocons, who really aren’t that distant from the left-Neocons current running our government. I just don’t think it’s a good idea to have our government run by the same sort of people who unleashed Covid
     
    Why believe that the Anti-American rogue operation was limited to U.S. residents?

    An array of much simpler options becomes available when the goal is, "attacking both Trump2020 and China". Trump had many enemies in Europe and Asia as well as America. It is not unreasonable to believe that China-based Trump enemies were also involved. This makes an intentional release from the Wuhan Institute of Virology [WIV] highly plausible.

    There are documented ties between:
        • U.S. based Trump haters
        • NIH sponsored Coronavirus research
        • China's WIV

    Why insist on an elusive, complex, shadowy conspiracy when an openly admitted conspiracy can fill the role?


    America seems headed straight off a cliff right now, in numerous different ways. ... We’ve suffered around a million dead from Covid
     
    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions. Their premature departure while sad is Largely an acceleration of the inevitable.

    We cannot know for sure until after well after the fact. However, I feel comfortable predicting a survival bonus "Death Deficit" over the next 3-5 years that will mathematically net has out almost all of the "Excess Deaths".


    a total disruption of our society.
     
    Scientific reality shows that most of the disruption is unnecessary.

    Children rarely catch WUHAN-19. And, recover quickly. Forcing children to wear masks is intentional & malicious disruption to bolster science denial and fear mongering.

    The extremist "Manda-Vaxxers" have run head long in to scientifically well grounded "Vaxx-Realism". Why take an experimental vaccine, when there are scientifically sound reasons not to? Examples include (but are not limited to):

    -1- Near zero death rate for those who are younger and have no pre-existing conditions.
    -2- Having lived through the disease, already have near total resistance from immune system function.
    -3- Can usually be effectively treated using inexpensive, over the counter medicines such as HCQ and "horse paste" Ivermectin.
    ___

    Disruption is made much worse by government insistence on "Manda-vaxx" science denial. Firing high quality staff, who are science realists, makes no economic sense. It further cripples & disrupts the economy in already short staffed fields.


    Serious crime, especially homicides, have increased at the highest rate ever recorded. Last year, 200 of our cities suffered unprecedented waves of rioting, looting, and burning, the worst in at least two generations. Ideological conflict has almost never been this bitter in the past, with a substantial fraction of the population believing that the last election was stolen.
     
    All of a which is 100% caused by the SJW Globalist DNC.

    Before MAGA, the American people were genuinely stuck. Their options were SJW/DNC versus Globalist/GOP. Which is worse, racial agitators versus MegaCorporations?

    The political realignment that Trump brought is a 100+ year magnitude event. The MAGA GOP is now "The Workers Party".. Admittedly, it is still work in progress to make it stick. Swamp critters like Liz Cheney still need to be sent home in shame & disrepute.

    Even more important -- All of the plagues targeting Worker Citizens are lining up with the DNC. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is now supporting Democrats. NeoCons, like Bill Kristol, have returned to their roots as NeoConDemocrats. And, of course enemies of traditional Judeo-Christian values remain DNC.

    MAGA GOP candidates get to run against Wall Street Rainbows.
     
    https://gaycitynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ChasePrideIS.jpg
     

    The correct emblem for MAGA is not the Lion. MAGA is the PHOENIX rising from the ashes that the DNC have created by burning cities.

     
    http://dreamstop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/phoenix-dreams.jpg
     

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1)
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2020/08/28/the-bloom-is-off-the-ruse-tom-donohue-and-u-s-chamber-of-commerce-announce-support-for-far-left-democrats-in-2020/

    Replies: @sudden death

    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions. .

    Also they were mostly white and Republican.

    Their premature departure while sad is Largely an acceleration of the inevitable.

    …largely acceleration of inevitable white christian voter replacement – truly stable genius idea of killing your own voters faster while having relatively razor thin election margins in some crucial places 😉

    • Replies: @A123
    @sudden death



    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions.
     
    Also they were mostly white and Republican.
     
    ROTFL,

    Thank you for your unhinged, #NeverTrump, pro-Biden, Leftoid fantasy rant.

    Now for the facts. "African-Americans" are the:
        • Least vaccinated community
        • Highest preexisting conditions community

    Total Leftoid detachment from science & fact, presages massive MAGA victories in the future.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

  138. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Is that actually how it goes?
     
    This is precisely and exactly how it goes. In all economies based on fiat currency which is the entire real world. Yes, in libertarian fantasies of sound money this arithmetic breaks down, but we don't live in sound currency world (for good reasons), so in reality, this is exactly how it goes. Money has no meaning beyond faith (aka credit) people assign to it. And who assigns meaning to life? Credit markets, that's who. I guess they don't teach this in econ classes, but that's the fundamental truth of life.

    Any bank can provide credit (up to its fractional reserve limit). The catch is that the credit has to go the actually creditworthy, or else the bank loses money, reputation, and ultimately solvency.
     
    LOL no. They just lower interest rates if insolvent are politically important. And there is no limit, they can make it all up as they go along, as long as you believe it. That's what "fiat" means, by definition. There is no such thing as "solvency". You get bailed out with more fiat if you run into trouble. Again, just print it, no worries, its all about politics and power anyway.

    By contrast, government fiat money is essentially a credit counterfeiting operation disguised as something necessary. It just arbitrarily enriches whomever the government gives the fresh money to by diluting everyone else.
     
    LOL, as opposed to private commercial banking cartel enriching their cronies?

    You are not wrong though. What you are saying - "neoliberalism is superior to socialism because private commercial banking system enriching the rich and corporations is better for optimizing corporate efficiency and thus the output" is absolutely true.. up to a certain private sector debt to GDP level.

    Well, we are up to that debt level now, and sure, I fully support private sector initiative, but it's up to government now to step up and provide demand support. Like it has always done. Hopefully, without killing millions this time around.


    but if it goes full Zimbabwe it not only fails to enrich its cronies, it destroys the larger economy as well.
     
    Zimbabwe did nothing wrong. Well, hyperinflation wise. They did do wrong like a decade prior when they wrecked their supply chains by confiscating white farmer land, but that was a different error. Once that (confiscation) error was made, hyperinflation was the only smart way out.

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    And if the government doesn’t do too much “remedying”, the real banks should enjoy high interest rates, which will imminently solve their lack of capital problem.
     
    In the modern world, can somebody please explain to me why banks should enjoy high levels of interest income relative to the general economy?

    In the past, when banks were used to measure risk, sure. But today, why? Why should banks enjoy high interest rate? They most certainly don't measure risk anymore (they get bailed out). So why? Why have high cost of money that is an imaginary product? Why?

    Inflation is one reason, but I really don't see any other, and government power is a far better inflationary control mechanism than monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Emil Nikola Richard, @GLT

    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.

    But they were specified in gold backed currency. Am I missing something?

    • Replies: @mal
    @GLT

    They were printing money to buy gold and whatever other hard assets they could on the open market. And then used that to make payments to the "Allies".

    The "Allies", the British and and French, were then forced to pay back the loans that the American Banks made to help British and French fund weapons purchases during the war. This wasn't very nice or even "ally" thing to do as usually those loans were restructured and/or forgiven.

    At the time when even Soviet Russia was under gold standard, losing your gold meant losing your economy. Net result was:

    1. Germans lost their gold and hyperinflated.
    2. British and French Empires received a backstabbing mortal blow from the Americans from which they never recovered. That was the end of European supremacy in global affairs.
    3. Americans literally made a killing and became a superpower with all that gold. The amount of gold on deposit in the newly minted Federal Reserve system increased from like 500 tons in 1913 to something like 3000 tons by 1923. And keep in mind in 1913, America was not a poor country. Basically, that money is what got "Roaring 20's" party started in the US.

  139. Gave Peter F. Hamilton another shot. Quickly ran into this line, describing the first two characters introduced:

    Peter was thirty-five, a metre eighty tall, with skin actually darker than her own deep ebony. He worked in the university mathematics department…

    Which is the exact sort of stuff that caused me to quit the last sci-fi book that I read. Don’t read many genres, but I suspect modern sci-fi has the most intense color signaling, by far. Exactly, why that is, is an interesting question.

    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird

    Which Peter F. Hamilton book? All three (4?) "Greg Mandel" series books are universally regarded as awful.

    Much of Hamilton's universe encompasses extremely advanced TransHuman technology. Gold is not a euphemism for yellow. Gold is metallic gold.


    Gore knelt in front of her, his hands gripping her upper arms. His eyes peered out intently from the gold skin mask that was his face. 'You have to get to Makkathran.'
     
    If someone is described as having black skin. That normally means true obsidion or onyx. It is a fashion choice, not an implied ethnicity. Any individual who is "Higher" goes through total physiological & neurological reprofiling and optimisation. (1)

    2872 -- Start of human Higher culture, biononic enrichment allowing a society of slow-paced long life, rejection of commercial economics and old political ideologies.
    2880 -- Development of weapons biononics.
    2913 -- Earth begins absorption of 'mature' humans into ANA, the inward migration begins.
    2934 -- Knights Guardian adopt Higher biononic technology.
     
    For the most part it genuinely is post-racial. Not to make a racial statement. Advanced bionic/nanonic TransHuman technology has overwhelmed and crushed the concept of race.

    While a bit grim, the Night's Dawn series is more accessible. [MORE]

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://peterfhamilton.fandom.com/wiki/Commonwealth_Universe_Timeline

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004VO4J0I

    Replies: @songbird

  140. @sudden death
    @A123


    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions. .
     
    Also they were mostly white and Republican.

    Their premature departure while sad is Largely an acceleration of the inevitable.
     
    ...largely acceleration of inevitable white christian voter replacement - truly stable genius idea of killing your own voters faster while having relatively razor thin election margins in some crucial places ;)

    Replies: @A123

    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions.

    Also they were mostly white and Republican.

    ROTFL,

    Thank you for your unhinged, #NeverTrump, pro-Biden, Leftoid fantasy rant.

    Now for the facts. “African-Americans” are the:
        • Least vaccinated community
        • Highest preexisting conditions community

    Total Leftoid detachment from science & fact, presages massive MAGA victories in the future.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123


    Now for the facts. “African-Americans” are the:
    • Least vaccinated community
    • Highest preexisting conditions community
     
    haha, you just managed quietly to miss the fact what percentage of all voting "retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions" in USA are African Americans ;)

    ...but the very fact of mentioning low vaccination rate as a negative fact from a MAGA fan is quite encouraging.

    Replies: @A123

  141. Rev Louis Farakan has been quoted in press as calling the vaccination whitey’s death shot for you–don’t take it.

    • LOL: Barbarossa
  142. @Thorfinnsson
    @Thomm

    Would you say it's better to fuck a bitch (female dog) or a white man (hairless if required for erection)?

    No question dodging!

    Replies: @mal, @nebulafox

    That depends. Is he as excellent company as Metrobius?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @nebulafox

    I have always been mystified by Razib's strange fixation on Sulla.

    Replies: @nebulafox, @German_reader

  143. @A123
    @sudden death



    Most of whom were retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions.
     
    Also they were mostly white and Republican.
     
    ROTFL,

    Thank you for your unhinged, #NeverTrump, pro-Biden, Leftoid fantasy rant.

    Now for the facts. "African-Americans" are the:
        • Least vaccinated community
        • Highest preexisting conditions community

    Total Leftoid detachment from science & fact, presages massive MAGA victories in the future.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

    Now for the facts. “African-Americans” are the:
    • Least vaccinated community
    • Highest preexisting conditions community

    haha, you just managed quietly to miss the fact what percentage of all voting “retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions” in USA are African Americans 😉

    …but the very fact of mentioning low vaccination rate as a negative fact from a MAGA fan is quite encouraging.

    • Replies: @A123
    @sudden death

    As a #NeverTrump Leftoid, I have to believe that you are entirely missing the point. On eugenics basis, your preferred SJW ethnic group is expiring faster than MAGA voters. Your government Manda-Vaxx science denial? Also, brutal to your preferred #NeverTrump sheeple.

    My Vaxx-realism is statistically counter to my MAGA political objectives. (Shrug) My hope is that standing up against your Lord Fauci & BigPharma will encourage DNC to MAGA conversions.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

  144. @songbird
    Gave Peter F. Hamilton another shot. Quickly ran into this line, describing the first two characters introduced:

    Peter was thirty-five, a metre eighty tall, with skin actually darker than her own deep ebony. He worked in the university mathematics department...

    Which is the exact sort of stuff that caused me to quit the last sci-fi book that I read. Don't read many genres, but I suspect modern sci-fi has the most intense color signaling, by far. Exactly, why that is, is an interesting question.

    Replies: @A123

    Which Peter F. Hamilton book? All three (4?) “Greg Mandel” series books are universally regarded as awful.

    Much of Hamilton’s universe encompasses extremely advanced TransHuman technology. Gold is not a euphemism for yellow. Gold is metallic gold.

    Gore knelt in front of her, his hands gripping her upper arms. His eyes peered out intently from the gold skin mask that was his face. ‘You have to get to Makkathran.’

    If someone is described as having black skin. That normally means true obsidion or onyx. It is a fashion choice, not an implied ethnicity. Any individual who is “Higher” goes through total physiological & neurological reprofiling and optimisation. (1)

    2872 — Start of human Higher culture, biononic enrichment allowing a society of slow-paced long life, rejection of commercial economics and old political ideologies.
    2880 — Development of weapons biononics.
    2913 — Earth begins absorption of ‘mature’ humans into ANA, the inward migration begins.
    2934 — Knights Guardian adopt Higher biononic technology.

    For the most part it genuinely is post-racial. Not to make a racial statement. Advanced bionic/nanonic TransHuman technology has overwhelmed and crushed the concept of race.

    While a bit grim, the Night’s Dawn series is more accessible. [MORE]

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://peterfhamilton.fandom.com/wiki/Commonwealth_Universe_Timeline

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Reality Dysfunction.

    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the '50s.

    Early attempts were explained by space rays turning people darker, or some planets having high UV, leaving to one's imagination whether it was a new, gain of function mutation (similar to the darker Indians) or explained by them being Africans. Later came pills that could turn a person black or fashionable body paint.

    I say "shield" because there are simultaneous, non-sequitor signals of universalism. Not to mention many authors like Clarke didn't even bother dressing up there vision of a future Earth where everyone was black, with the darkest being the most admired.

    I'm not sure if there has been an author since the '50s who didn't signal universalism.

    Replies: @A123

  145. @A123
    @songbird

    Which Peter F. Hamilton book? All three (4?) "Greg Mandel" series books are universally regarded as awful.

    Much of Hamilton's universe encompasses extremely advanced TransHuman technology. Gold is not a euphemism for yellow. Gold is metallic gold.


    Gore knelt in front of her, his hands gripping her upper arms. His eyes peered out intently from the gold skin mask that was his face. 'You have to get to Makkathran.'
     
    If someone is described as having black skin. That normally means true obsidion or onyx. It is a fashion choice, not an implied ethnicity. Any individual who is "Higher" goes through total physiological & neurological reprofiling and optimisation. (1)

    2872 -- Start of human Higher culture, biononic enrichment allowing a society of slow-paced long life, rejection of commercial economics and old political ideologies.
    2880 -- Development of weapons biononics.
    2913 -- Earth begins absorption of 'mature' humans into ANA, the inward migration begins.
    2934 -- Knights Guardian adopt Higher biononic technology.
     
    For the most part it genuinely is post-racial. Not to make a racial statement. Advanced bionic/nanonic TransHuman technology has overwhelmed and crushed the concept of race.

    While a bit grim, the Night's Dawn series is more accessible. [MORE]

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://peterfhamilton.fandom.com/wiki/Commonwealth_Universe_Timeline

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004VO4J0I

    Replies: @songbird

    Reality Dysfunction.

    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the ’50s.

    Early attempts were explained by space rays turning people darker, or some planets having high UV, leaving to one’s imagination whether it was a new, gain of function mutation (similar to the darker Indians) or explained by them being Africans. Later came pills that could turn a person black or fashionable body paint.

    I say “shield” because there are simultaneous, non-sequitor signals of universalism. Not to mention many authors like Clarke didn’t even bother dressing up there vision of a future Earth where everyone was black, with the darkest being the most admired.

    I’m not sure if there has been an author since the ’50s who didn’t signal universalism.

    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird


    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the ’50s.
     
    Hmmmm... I think we are now down to unprovable assumptions.

    My assumption is the HBD race ±5-10 IQ points is legitimately swamped by TransHuman neural reengineering at least +30 IQ points. In my experience, reading science fiction under that assumption works 90%+. The exceptions mostly being poorly written political short fiction with faux science cobbled on at the last second.

    If one arrives at a piece looking for racial charge, one can find it.

    Heinlein's Starship Troopers featured high school attraction between Johnny Rico and Carmen Ibanez. Do you think that the novel (dear God *Not* the movie) had an intentional Hispanic racial message?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  146. @nebulafox
    @Thorfinnsson

    That depends. Is he as excellent company as Metrobius?

    Replies: @songbird

    I have always been mystified by Razib’s strange fixation on Sulla.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @songbird

    I don't think it is strange at all. He was if nothing else a very fascinating man. One who never stomped on those who were kind when he was at the bottom, just as he humiliated and crushed the idiots who would have spat on him then, when he was alone and abused, but fawned all over him when he was on top.

    Yeah. I *get* that. Better an honorable Metrobius, male or female, than some spoiled, preening hypocritical bougie slut.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @German_reader
    @songbird

    imo it's just part of Razib's pretensions at being a polymath, to show off how much he knows about history. But it's pretty silly. I'm not even sure what his point is, he seems to use Sulla as a stand-in for a "true populist" who will arise to crush the SJWs. But the issues in the late Roman republic bear little resemblance to those of today, and if anything Sulla was an anti-populist whose main goal was to restore the traditional authority of the senate. So not a very enlightening comparison.

    Replies: @songbird, @Almost Missouri

  147. @sudden death
    @A123


    Now for the facts. “African-Americans” are the:
    • Least vaccinated community
    • Highest preexisting conditions community
     
    haha, you just managed quietly to miss the fact what percentage of all voting "retirees with multiple pre-existing conditions" in USA are African Americans ;)

    ...but the very fact of mentioning low vaccination rate as a negative fact from a MAGA fan is quite encouraging.

    Replies: @A123

    As a #NeverTrump Leftoid, I have to believe that you are entirely missing the point. On eugenics basis, your preferred SJW ethnic group is expiring faster than MAGA voters. Your government Manda-Vaxx science denial? Also, brutal to your preferred #NeverTrump sheeple.

    My Vaxx-realism is statistically counter to my MAGA political objectives. (Shrug) My hope is that standing up against your Lord Fauci & BigPharma will encourage DNC to MAGA conversions.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    If not for the fact that unchecked viral replication so far only increased both virulence&infectivity of Covid, would not have any objection to all kinds and colours of antivaxers and/or virus denialists dying at increased rates, as getting rid of ignoramuses, no mater black or white, would make America truly great.

    btw, Trump voters are way below black vax rate, so MAGA expiry rates certainly are not slower, to say the least:

    https://i.redd.it/nen2xn491jl71.png

    Replies: @A123

  148. @songbird
    @A123

    Reality Dysfunction.

    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the '50s.

    Early attempts were explained by space rays turning people darker, or some planets having high UV, leaving to one's imagination whether it was a new, gain of function mutation (similar to the darker Indians) or explained by them being Africans. Later came pills that could turn a person black or fashionable body paint.

    I say "shield" because there are simultaneous, non-sequitor signals of universalism. Not to mention many authors like Clarke didn't even bother dressing up there vision of a future Earth where everyone was black, with the darkest being the most admired.

    I'm not sure if there has been an author since the '50s who didn't signal universalism.

    Replies: @A123

    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the ’50s.

    Hmmmm… I think we are now down to unprovable assumptions.

    My assumption is the HBD race ±5-10 IQ points is legitimately swamped by TransHuman neural reengineering at least +30 IQ points. In my experience, reading science fiction under that assumption works 90%+. The exceptions mostly being poorly written political short fiction with faux science cobbled on at the last second.

    If one arrives at a piece looking for racial charge, one can find it.

    Heinlein’s Starship Troopers featured high school attraction between Johnny Rico and Carmen Ibanez. Do you think that the novel (dear God *Not* the movie) had an intentional Hispanic racial message?

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Well, I believe Heinlein wasn't above color signaling. For best example, see his "This, I Believe" speech, which I think coinincided with his political ambitions. Wasn't the protagonist in "Tunnel in the Sky" black? (Though subtley stated.)

    Been quite a while since I read "Starship Troopers." The initial message that I took from it race-wise was that the future belongs to those who show up. Seen in that light, it could even be an exhortation to action. But that was when I wasn't very familiar with Heinlein.

    Pretty sure that he wasn't a blank-slatist at heart. IIRC, he and Campbell once taunted Asimov about blacks. But, in many ways, he was quite liberal. Probably, it had something to do with the fact he was living in California. Beyond that, I'm not sure what meaning it had.

    Though, that said, I don't find color-signaling that annoying (if he was), when it does not involve blacks (makes it less obvious), though it usually does.

    Replies: @A123

  149. @songbird
    @nebulafox

    I have always been mystified by Razib's strange fixation on Sulla.

    Replies: @nebulafox, @German_reader

    I don’t think it is strange at all. He was if nothing else a very fascinating man. One who never stomped on those who were kind when he was at the bottom, just as he humiliated and crushed the idiots who would have spat on him then, when he was alone and abused, but fawned all over him when he was on top.

    Yeah. I *get* that. Better an honorable Metrobius, male or female, than some spoiled, preening hypocritical bougie slut.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @nebulafox

    I'm too much of an amateur to judge Sulla confidently, according to the context of his time, and the limited sources that we have.

    But what seems inescapable strange is Khan's belief in a modern parallelism with the Roman Republic - I should think it would at least be late Empire, if anything - and his belief that Sulla will inevitably have a second coming and help us.

  150. @A123
    @songbird


    To a certain extent, I think there is a history within scifi of transhumanism being used as a shield to rationalize color signaling, maybe, since as early as the ’50s.
     
    Hmmmm... I think we are now down to unprovable assumptions.

    My assumption is the HBD race ±5-10 IQ points is legitimately swamped by TransHuman neural reengineering at least +30 IQ points. In my experience, reading science fiction under that assumption works 90%+. The exceptions mostly being poorly written political short fiction with faux science cobbled on at the last second.

    If one arrives at a piece looking for racial charge, one can find it.

    Heinlein's Starship Troopers featured high school attraction between Johnny Rico and Carmen Ibanez. Do you think that the novel (dear God *Not* the movie) had an intentional Hispanic racial message?

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Well, I believe Heinlein wasn’t above color signaling. For best example, see his “This, I Believe” speech, which I think coinincided with his political ambitions. Wasn’t the protagonist in “Tunnel in the Sky” black? (Though subtley stated.)

    Been quite a while since I read “Starship Troopers.” The initial message that I took from it race-wise was that the future belongs to those who show up. Seen in that light, it could even be an exhortation to action. But that was when I wasn’t very familiar with Heinlein.

    Pretty sure that he wasn’t a blank-slatist at heart. IIRC, he and Campbell once taunted Asimov about blacks. But, in many ways, he was quite liberal. Probably, it had something to do with the fact he was living in California. Beyond that, I’m not sure what meaning it had.

    Though, that said, I don’t find color-signaling that annoying (if he was), when it does not involve blacks (makes it less obvious), though it usually does.

    • Replies: @A123
    @songbird

    Heinlein's original publisher/editor for most of his YA works was left leaning. I believe it was Starship Troopers that ended that relationship. So, earlier works may have features that were not truly his own but sold well).

    Having a minority character us not inherently color signaling, it is simply character. Drawing a distinction that defines color as important is signalling.

    If you go out of your way to carefully trace the race of characters (actual or perceived) and then search extensively for a signal... Have you considered that you may find something:
    -- unintended?
    -- no one else sees?

    This is similar to one of the most aggravating behaviours of SJW Islamic Globalists. Any display, such as wearing a star or cross, is a "micro aggression" requiring a response.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

  151. German_reader says:
    @songbird
    @nebulafox

    I have always been mystified by Razib's strange fixation on Sulla.

    Replies: @nebulafox, @German_reader

    imo it’s just part of Razib’s pretensions at being a polymath, to show off how much he knows about history. But it’s pretty silly. I’m not even sure what his point is, he seems to use Sulla as a stand-in for a “true populist” who will arise to crush the SJWs. But the issues in the late Roman republic bear little resemblance to those of today, and if anything Sulla was an anti-populist whose main goal was to restore the traditional authority of the senate. So not a very enlightening comparison.

    • Agree: Yevardian
    • Replies: @songbird
    @German_reader

    My previous theory was that a bust of Sulla fell on him, while he was experiencing a state of euphoria.

    But I think you are right.

    , @Almost Missouri
    @German_reader


    it’s just part of Razib’s pretensions at being a polymath, to show off how much he knows about history. But it’s pretty silly. I’m not even sure what his point is, he seems to use Sulla as a stand-in for a “true populist” who will arise to crush the SJWs. But the issues in the late Roman republic bear little resemblance to those of today,
     
    Razib used to do a genomics podcast with baizuo Spencer Wells, before they got distracted by 2020 and the podcast veered off into leftwing conspiracy theories. But before it completely cratered, Spencer persuaded Razib to whip out his powerful Sulla take for the audience. It was embarrassing: like hearing a college Sophomore expound what he supposes is a great and novel intellectual breakthrough when in fact he is just retreading an already tired trope with so many flaws that a better educated person wouldn't touch it. Mercifully, people stopped listening and they discontinued the podcast shortly thereafter.

    ---------

    One of the 0ther comments implied you have a Substack. Care to drop the address? I'd read it.

    Replies: @German_reader

  152. Was it? Sulla completely rehauled everything to be based in written law rather than unstated mos maiorum. This was a departure from everything the Roman Republic was at that point. Sulla was many things, but an arch-conservative, he wasn’t-he created something new guised in the old.

    I think Khan’s point was that he was the living embodiment of a new order, guised in the garments of the old. And it took a man of impeccable patrician birth who nevertheless was molded in the Sabura, that straddled all worlds while being fully a part of none. Caesar, Pompey, Cicero, Antony, Augustus. They wouldn’t have been possible without Sulla. He was the genesis.

    • Replies: @German_reader
    @nebulafox


    Sulla completely rehauled everything to be based in writtren law rather than unstated mos maiorum.
     
    I don't remember that tbh. But iirc one of his most controversial measures was his attempt to bring the courts under senatorial control again and reduce the power of the equites in them, which seems quite reactionary to me (of course it's difficult to evaluate, the extant sources about Sulla's time are rather limited after all).
    But imo comparing anything from ancient Rome with today's issues is just silly, issues are too different.

    Replies: @nebulafox, @iffen

  153. German_reader says:
    @nebulafox
    Was it? Sulla completely rehauled everything to be based in written law rather than unstated mos maiorum. This was a departure from everything the Roman Republic was at that point. Sulla was many things, but an arch-conservative, he wasn't-he created something new guised in the old.

    I think Khan's point was that he was the living embodiment of a new order, guised in the garments of the old. And it took a man of impeccable patrician birth who nevertheless was molded in the Sabura, that straddled all worlds while being fully a part of none. Caesar, Pompey, Cicero, Antony, Augustus. They wouldn't have been possible without Sulla. He was the genesis.

    Replies: @German_reader

    Sulla completely rehauled everything to be based in writtren law rather than unstated mos maiorum.

    I don’t remember that tbh. But iirc one of his most controversial measures was his attempt to bring the courts under senatorial control again and reduce the power of the equites in them, which seems quite reactionary to me (of course it’s difficult to evaluate, the extant sources about Sulla’s time are rather limited after all).
    But imo comparing anything from ancient Rome with today’s issues is just silly, issues are too different.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @German_reader

    It's hard to to tell. 2/3 of our primary sources hated him, after all. But packing the courts with your less than aristocratic allies and basing their fundamental MO on written law was a departure, if anything else. I've never bought the notion that Sulla wanted to reverse the clock, whatever his ideological garments shower. His whole record screams against it.

    (For the record, it failed, to say the least. Sulla was a beautiful failure. But ideologically, Sulla had more in common with Augustus than his adoptive father did, and I think some of that showed in his policies.)

    Your broader point: to a certain extent, I agree. Ancient and medieval world was so different from ours that comparisons aren't useful in any field other than human nature. Everything has changed so immensely that it's not useful beyond that. But human nature, moral lessons: that's where it is useful. Humans have not changed all that much, for better or for ill, equally.

    , @iffen
    @German_reader

    But imo comparing anything from ancient Rome with today’s issues is just silly, issues are too different

    You don't see the West as being the progeny of Greco-Roman culture? You don't see the waning of the power and competence of the last hegemon as an end to that tradition?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  154. @German_reader
    @nebulafox


    Sulla completely rehauled everything to be based in writtren law rather than unstated mos maiorum.
     
    I don't remember that tbh. But iirc one of his most controversial measures was his attempt to bring the courts under senatorial control again and reduce the power of the equites in them, which seems quite reactionary to me (of course it's difficult to evaluate, the extant sources about Sulla's time are rather limited after all).
    But imo comparing anything from ancient Rome with today's issues is just silly, issues are too different.

    Replies: @nebulafox, @iffen

    It’s hard to to tell. 2/3 of our primary sources hated him, after all. But packing the courts with your less than aristocratic allies and basing their fundamental MO on written law was a departure, if anything else. I’ve never bought the notion that Sulla wanted to reverse the clock, whatever his ideological garments shower. His whole record screams against it.

    (For the record, it failed, to say the least. Sulla was a beautiful failure. But ideologically, Sulla had more in common with Augustus than his adoptive father did, and I think some of that showed in his policies.)

    Your broader point: to a certain extent, I agree. Ancient and medieval world was so different from ours that comparisons aren’t useful in any field other than human nature. Everything has changed so immensely that it’s not useful beyond that. But human nature, moral lessons: that’s where it is useful. Humans have not changed all that much, for better or for ill, equally.

  155. @A123
    @sudden death

    As a #NeverTrump Leftoid, I have to believe that you are entirely missing the point. On eugenics basis, your preferred SJW ethnic group is expiring faster than MAGA voters. Your government Manda-Vaxx science denial? Also, brutal to your preferred #NeverTrump sheeple.

    My Vaxx-realism is statistically counter to my MAGA political objectives. (Shrug) My hope is that standing up against your Lord Fauci & BigPharma will encourage DNC to MAGA conversions.

    #LetsGoBrandon 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

    If not for the fact that unchecked viral replication so far only increased both virulence&infectivity of Covid, would not have any objection to all kinds and colours of antivaxers and/or virus denialists dying at increased rates, as getting rid of ignoramuses, no mater black or white, would make America truly great.

    btw, Trump voters are way below black vax rate, so MAGA expiry rates certainly are not slower, to say the least:

    • Replies: @A123
    @sudden death

    So you personally trust numbers from NBC.

    Trust...

    NBC....

    Ummm.... Trusting NBC is so far beyond the pale, I am almost speechless.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

  156. @sudden death
    @A123

    If not for the fact that unchecked viral replication so far only increased both virulence&infectivity of Covid, would not have any objection to all kinds and colours of antivaxers and/or virus denialists dying at increased rates, as getting rid of ignoramuses, no mater black or white, would make America truly great.

    btw, Trump voters are way below black vax rate, so MAGA expiry rates certainly are not slower, to say the least:

    https://i.redd.it/nen2xn491jl71.png

    Replies: @A123

    So you personally trust numbers from NBC.

    Trust…

    NBC….

    Ummm…. Trusting NBC is so far beyond the pale, I am almost speechless.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    Trusted or not, those are sourced data numbers instead of just empty declarations without providing any ;)

    Replies: @A123, @A123

  157. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Not Raul

    Thanks for the idea.

    But I don't really see how this would be in the interests of either myself (less traffic and commenting at my Substack), or to The Unz Review (parasitizing on its commenting system for content located elsewhere).

    That said, if Ron wishes to republish anything of mine that piques his interest, I'd be perfectly happy with that.


    I suspect that the shortage of shipping containers is short term, and will be much less of a problem by Q2 2022.
     
    I agree. I also think all these logistical problems are sooner bullish than bearish. Pent up demand bursting through so strongly that infrastructure of c.2019 is struggling to cope.

    Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard, @Weaver

    There is a benefit to your posting here: Rednecks like me, German supporters of Hitler, East Europeans, Jews, and Russians all talking together.

    Usually we split up on the Internet. At least a few of the posters here seem to not be alphabet agents or other fakes. Furthermore, if Europe continues collapsing, and if Putin can’t find a worthy successor, Europeans in the world might one day find ourselves all in a common situation.

    It’s like Genghis Khan uniting his people to be strong. Europeans might not like one another, but things might become bad enough that Europeans have to communicate a bit more.

    Regarding shipping containers, partly there are ships waiting on California ports, ships full of containers. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-truth-behind-247-port-operations-pledge

    And there’s a trucker shortage in the US to take goods from the ports, but that wouldn’t impact containers.

  158. @A123
    @sudden death

    So you personally trust numbers from NBC.

    Trust...

    NBC....

    Ummm.... Trusting NBC is so far beyond the pale, I am almost speechless.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

    Trusted or not, those are sourced data numbers instead of just empty declarations without providing any 😉

    • Replies: @A123
    @sudden death

    So you think that NBC, mortal enemy of Trump is honest?

    If NBC had a fake number story about "Excess Trump Deaths", do you think they would have hesitated A milli-nano-pico second (a.k.a. A horse paste second) before running it?
    ___

    A real look at the data would require a reliable party to perform a 4-way analysis of:
    -1- Age
    -2- Preexisting conditions
    -3- Politics
    -4- Race

    In the actual world, Trump supporters are Vaxx-realists exhibiting personal responsibility. Those who are:
    -- Elderly with pre-existing conditions, rationally looked at the risk versus reward and got the shots.
    -- Young and healthy followed the science and refused the experimental risk.

    Notice NBC's disingenuous bias. They did not provide a correlation between the experimental jab and outcome for the young & healthy.

    Could it be that there is no correlation for the young & healthy?
    A MegaCorporation covering for BigPharma?
    Impossible you say?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    Grand Moff Tarkin: You are far too trusting
    ___________

    I Find Your Trust in the SJW Establishment Disturbing
    -- Not a Star Wars Quote, But It Should Be One --


    Mildly NSFW below more.

    https://imgix.bustle.com/uploads/image/2019/11/21/4fe3eec3-3f70-4ae0-8fc1-9115bc504e0d-ejn11zouwaajwc6.jpeg

    , @A123
    @sudden death

    As you lack trust in me here is an objective source:

    https://fee.org/articles/vaccination-rates-not-linked-to-lower-covid-rates-epidemiology-paper-finds/

    Trusting anything Fake Stream Media [FSM] outlets, like NBC, provide is inherently very risky. The fascist Lügenpresse in the U.S. Exists for a single purpose -- SJW MegaCorporation deception.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @sudden death

  159. @nebulafox
    @songbird

    I don't think it is strange at all. He was if nothing else a very fascinating man. One who never stomped on those who were kind when he was at the bottom, just as he humiliated and crushed the idiots who would have spat on him then, when he was alone and abused, but fawned all over him when he was on top.

    Yeah. I *get* that. Better an honorable Metrobius, male or female, than some spoiled, preening hypocritical bougie slut.

    Replies: @songbird

    I’m too much of an amateur to judge Sulla confidently, according to the context of his time, and the limited sources that we have.

    But what seems inescapable strange is Khan’s belief in a modern parallelism with the Roman Republic – I should think it would at least be late Empire, if anything – and his belief that Sulla will inevitably have a second coming and help us.

  160. @German_reader
    @songbird

    imo it's just part of Razib's pretensions at being a polymath, to show off how much he knows about history. But it's pretty silly. I'm not even sure what his point is, he seems to use Sulla as a stand-in for a "true populist" who will arise to crush the SJWs. But the issues in the late Roman republic bear little resemblance to those of today, and if anything Sulla was an anti-populist whose main goal was to restore the traditional authority of the senate. So not a very enlightening comparison.

    Replies: @songbird, @Almost Missouri

    My previous theory was that a bust of Sulla fell on him, while he was experiencing a state of euphoria.

    But I think you are right.

  161. @songbird
    @A123

    Well, I believe Heinlein wasn't above color signaling. For best example, see his "This, I Believe" speech, which I think coinincided with his political ambitions. Wasn't the protagonist in "Tunnel in the Sky" black? (Though subtley stated.)

    Been quite a while since I read "Starship Troopers." The initial message that I took from it race-wise was that the future belongs to those who show up. Seen in that light, it could even be an exhortation to action. But that was when I wasn't very familiar with Heinlein.

    Pretty sure that he wasn't a blank-slatist at heart. IIRC, he and Campbell once taunted Asimov about blacks. But, in many ways, he was quite liberal. Probably, it had something to do with the fact he was living in California. Beyond that, I'm not sure what meaning it had.

    Though, that said, I don't find color-signaling that annoying (if he was), when it does not involve blacks (makes it less obvious), though it usually does.

    Replies: @A123

    Heinlein’s original publisher/editor for most of his YA works was left leaning. I believe it was Starship Troopers that ended that relationship. So, earlier works may have features that were not truly his own but sold well).

    Having a minority character us not inherently color signaling, it is simply character. Drawing a distinction that defines color as important is signalling.

    If you go out of your way to carefully trace the race of characters (actual or perceived) and then search extensively for a signal… Have you considered that you may find something:
    — unintended?
    — no one else sees?

    This is similar to one of the most aggravating behaviours of SJW Islamic Globalists. Any display, such as wearing a star or cross, is a “micro aggression” requiring a response.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    Oddly enough, I think Heinlein's juveniles make him seem a bit more rightward-leaning and traditional than he really was. IMO, it was good that he had an editor. Chained Heinlein is better than unchained.

    In nature, it is easy to see many forms of color signaling. Since we see in color, I think we are not immune to it. Further, I think that any impartial attempt at quantification would show that in many movies, we see black faces (strongest color signal) out of proportion to what we would expect. And we would see the same in scifi novels.

    Was Heinlein color signaling with Johnny Rico? Put it in the demographic context of the '50s, and consider that Hispanics typically don't do a lot of reading (so not much of a market, even externally). And I think he was color signaling. But in a very subtle way, as we would expect from Heinlein who was by all accounts a very intelligent man.

    Replies: @Aedib

  162. @sudden death
    @A123

    Trusted or not, those are sourced data numbers instead of just empty declarations without providing any ;)

    Replies: @A123, @A123

    So you think that NBC, mortal enemy of Trump is honest?

    If NBC had a fake number story about “Excess Trump Deaths”, do you think they would have hesitated A milli-nano-pico second (a.k.a. A horse paste second) before running it?
    ___

    A real look at the data would require a reliable party to perform a 4-way analysis of:
    -1- Age
    -2- Preexisting conditions
    -3- Politics
    -4- Race

    In the actual world, Trump supporters are Vaxx-realists exhibiting personal responsibility. Those who are:
    — Elderly with pre-existing conditions, rationally looked at the risk versus reward and got the shots.
    — Young and healthy followed the science and refused the experimental risk.

    Notice NBC’s disingenuous bias. They did not provide a correlation between the experimental jab and outcome for the young & healthy.

    Could it be that there is no correlation for the young & healthy?
    A MegaCorporation covering for BigPharma?
    Impossible you say?

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    Grand Moff Tarkin: You are far too trusting
    ___________

    I Find Your Trust in the SJW Establishment Disturbing
    — Not a Star Wars Quote, But It Should Be One —

    Mildly NSFW below more.

    [MORE]

  163. @A123
    @songbird

    Heinlein's original publisher/editor for most of his YA works was left leaning. I believe it was Starship Troopers that ended that relationship. So, earlier works may have features that were not truly his own but sold well).

    Having a minority character us not inherently color signaling, it is simply character. Drawing a distinction that defines color as important is signalling.

    If you go out of your way to carefully trace the race of characters (actual or perceived) and then search extensively for a signal... Have you considered that you may find something:
    -- unintended?
    -- no one else sees?

    This is similar to one of the most aggravating behaviours of SJW Islamic Globalists. Any display, such as wearing a star or cross, is a "micro aggression" requiring a response.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @songbird

    Oddly enough, I think Heinlein’s juveniles make him seem a bit more rightward-leaning and traditional than he really was. IMO, it was good that he had an editor. Chained Heinlein is better than unchained.

    In nature, it is easy to see many forms of color signaling. Since we see in color, I think we are not immune to it. Further, I think that any impartial attempt at quantification would show that in many movies, we see black faces (strongest color signal) out of proportion to what we would expect. And we would see the same in scifi novels.

    Was Heinlein color signaling with Johnny Rico? Put it in the demographic context of the ’50s, and consider that Hispanics typically don’t do a lot of reading (so not much of a market, even externally). And I think he was color signaling. But in a very subtle way, as we would expect from Heinlein who was by all accounts a very intelligent man.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @songbird


    Was Heinlein color signaling with Johnny Rico? Put it in the demographic context of the ’50s, and consider that Hispanics typically don’t do a lot of reading (so not much of a market, even externally).
     
    I don’t think so. These endless discussions about Johny Rico ethnicity (Was he a brown Filipino or a white Argentine?) are irrelevant because the world of Starship Troopers was already globalized. But it was in the opposite direction of current trends.
  164. @Dmitry
    One of my posts in this thread was still not approved, and disappeared in the spam folder.

    AK has provided such an excellent moderation all these years.

    Sadly I guess he is in moving office stage, and the new moderation will go much more slow?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Checked, not in spam or deleted. There was a site update earlier today; that might have eaten the comment, unfortunately.

    • Replies: @Max Demian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Mr. Karlin,

    Within the past hour or so, I have made numerous attempts to post a detailed reply to one of Dmitry's comments in this thread. Each time, the page refreshed with no trace of the comment I had submitted, and no message that would inform me of its fate. (I note my complete confidence that any minimally objective and reasonable reader of the comment of mine in question would surely concur that it was entirely civil, substantative, falling well within both your own as well as Mr. Unz's stated rules and guidelines.)

    Using Tor Browser, I suspected that the problem may have been my exit nodes. I also considered the possibility that my pseudonymic handle/ fake email combination had somewhow gotten blacklisted. Neither of those possibile explanations appear to apply, however, as I was able to succesfully post (and subsequently delete) at least two brief test posts.

    Perhaps you could check any spam or other folders that may submitted comments may have landed-in? I would greatly appreciate that. If you are able to retrieve and post the first of my vanished submissions, all of the subsequent ones may (and indeed should) be discarded.

    Let me take this opportunity to express my appreciation for your work, my regret upon learning of your announced departure, and my best wishes for your future endeavors.

  165. @A123
    @Truth

    Candace Owens? Why use her as an example?

    If you want to pose the question, spread the reach a little wider and you can find 1/2 African, Emanuela De Paula from Brazil.

    I would try to say that I will not enjoy adding Emanuela De Paula pictures under [MORE] -- But it would be a lie.
    ____

    The most interest looking actress I can think of (from ~10 years ago) is Dichen Lachman. Born in Kathmandu, Nepal, to a Tibetan mother and Australian father.

     
    https://healthyceleb.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Dichen-Lachman-as-seen-in-September-2020.jpg



    Emanuela De Paula

     
    https://media.giphy.com/media/10HOXSpviXOKOc/giphy.gif

     
    https://www.12thblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Emanuela-de-Paula-36.jpg

     
    https://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/5795710/740full-emanuela-de-paula.jpg

    Replies: @Truth

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I’d have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    I mean, I don’t find Rosie O’donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, “Rosie, turn off all of the lights so I can think about someone else and I hope you know how to give head to get me started.”

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Truth


    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I’d have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.
     
    Because 40% of White Trashionalists are homosexuals, at least to the extent that they would prefer a white man over a mulatto woman (forget Candace Owens, we are up to mulattos now; they don't even want Halle Berry if Michael Moore is available). I suspect that even a Quatroon woman, Mexican mestizo woman, and Jewish would would similarly be passed over in favor of a white man in terms of their sexual preferences.

    When you get down to the true basics of HBD, it is not surprising that White Trashionalists are faggots, since :

    i) They represent the bottom 10% in all worthwhile genetic traits among the white race (the females of this subrace become the fat bluehaired feminists).
    ii) Homosexuality is how nature ensures defective genes are filtered out. One of the mechanisms at least. There is no other scientific explanation for it.
    iii) They believe they can package their homosexuality into a demonstration of undying loyalty to the white race. Except that they are so incapable of grasping how heterosexual people think, that they are baffled when those of us in normal, heterosexual white society go to great lengths to keep them from mooching off of us.
    iv) Always remember that politics is a circle, and far-left and 'far right' have much more in common than either has with normal people. Andrew Anglin was far-left antifa before becoming WN, but that wasn't some large ideological distance to traverse at all. Hence, there should be no surprise that what is called 'far right' has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    55% of white women voted for Trump, while almost zero under the age of 70 are found in WN circles. This is no mystery when one understands what I have explained above.

    Part of the reason I want more people to know that WNs are homosexuals is so that everyone can rest assured that they will never be able to infiltrate normal, heterosexual white society. The additional reason I am revulsed is that as a white man, I am actually the object of their unwanted lust (heavy emphasis on the word unwanted). That is why it sometimes preferable that they think I am a 'South Asian', even if I am obviously not one.

    From a scientific perspective, it is fascinating to watch evolution happen before our eyes, and the very process of genetic waste filtration manifest from their very words and actions.

    , @nebulafox
    @Truth

    Alcohol is a miracle drug in that situation. Turns out you really can close your eyes and pretend she's someone else.

    , @A123
    @Truth


    I mean, I don’t find Rosie O’donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, “Rosie, turn off all of the lights
     
    You omit the always present option number three. If the options were:

    -1- Rosie O'Donnell
    -2- Gérard Depardieu
    -3- Chewing your man bits off with your own teeth.

    I would give strong consideration to #3. Once anything has been inside of Rosie, do you really want to keep it?

    (shudder)

    PEACE 😇

  166. @Truth
    @A123

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I'd have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    I mean, I don't find Rosie O'donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, "Rosie, turn off all of the lights so I can think about someone else and I hope you know how to give head to get me started."

    Replies: @Thomm, @nebulafox, @A123

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I’d have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    Because 40% of White Trashionalists are homosexuals, at least to the extent that they would prefer a white man over a mulatto woman (forget Candace Owens, we are up to mulattos now; they don’t even want Halle Berry if Michael Moore is available). I suspect that even a Quatroon woman, Mexican mestizo woman, and Jewish would would similarly be passed over in favor of a white man in terms of their sexual preferences.

    When you get down to the true basics of HBD, it is not surprising that White Trashionalists are faggots, since :

    i) They represent the bottom 10% in all worthwhile genetic traits among the white race (the females of this subrace become the fat bluehaired feminists).
    ii) Homosexuality is how nature ensures defective genes are filtered out. One of the mechanisms at least. There is no other scientific explanation for it.
    iii) They believe they can package their homosexuality into a demonstration of undying loyalty to the white race. Except that they are so incapable of grasping how heterosexual people think, that they are baffled when those of us in normal, heterosexual white society go to great lengths to keep them from mooching off of us.
    iv) Always remember that politics is a circle, and far-left and ‘far right’ have much more in common than either has with normal people. Andrew Anglin was far-left antifa before becoming WN, but that wasn’t some large ideological distance to traverse at all. Hence, there should be no surprise that what is called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    55% of white women voted for Trump, while almost zero under the age of 70 are found in WN circles. This is no mystery when one understands what I have explained above.

    Part of the reason I want more people to know that WNs are homosexuals is so that everyone can rest assured that they will never be able to infiltrate normal, heterosexual white society. The additional reason I am revulsed is that as a white man, I am actually the object of their unwanted lust (heavy emphasis on the word unwanted). That is why it sometimes preferable that they think I am a ‘South Asian’, even if I am obviously not one.

    From a scientific perspective, it is fascinating to watch evolution happen before our eyes, and the very process of genetic waste filtration manifest from their very words and actions.

  167. @Truth
    @Barbarossa


    My response was intended to poke Truth a bit, since in his mind I’m not sure there are any non tranny women.
     
    Poke me? LOL, I'm not the one lusting after dudes.

    Also tying into Thomm’s rather silly list of supposedly homo WN list of Unz commenters.
     
    You still didn't answer the question, Old Sport; Plate of raw oysters and a stack of porn in a beautiful hotel room, who are you inviting up for an amorous evening, Matt Damon or Candace Owens?

    Replies: @A123, @Barbarossa

    -adjusts monocle-
    Look here Old Sport, while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, “dusky races” as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
    Good Lord!

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, “dusky races” as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
     
    Which is why YOU are not named on that list in Comment #10.

    The individuals on that list I posted have either openly said that they would prefer a white man over a black woman (and in some cases even a mulatto woman), or at least refused to say what you just said. They filibustered for comment after comment, but refused to say that they prefer even the most attractive black woman over the fattest, ugliest white man. Some of them have also said that they don't mind an MtF transgender sexual partner, since the race of the person did not change. Hence, we have discovered something quite revealing about contemporary WNs.

    They can always write what you just did, but refuse to do that. Hence, they aren't quite what you assume them to be.

    I don't add names to that list lightly. They have all either said that they prefer a white man over a black woman, or at least failed to say that even the most attractive black woman is the less-unappealing choice of the two, when asked two or more times. A heterosexual would have no problem saying what you just did.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @schnellandine

    , @Truth
    @Barbarossa

    LOL, Raw oysters are an aphrodisiac.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @Truth
    @Barbarossa

    Well half-point, you did almost answer the question by osmosis. That puts you WAY above your contemporaries.

    Literally, since Thomm has been posting this question, I think ONE dude has given the no-nonsense, no insinuation, normal (to my way of thinking) heterosexual answer.

    I find that quite strange, but maybe it's just me, I mean, when I was a kid, GAY dudes would have given the normal heterosexual answer.

    Times change.

  168. @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    -adjusts monocle-
    Look here Old Sport, while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, "dusky races" as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
    Good Lord!

    Replies: @Thomm, @Truth, @Truth

    while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, “dusky races” as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.

    Which is why YOU are not named on that list in Comment #10.

    The individuals on that list I posted have either openly said that they would prefer a white man over a black woman (and in some cases even a mulatto woman), or at least refused to say what you just said. They filibustered for comment after comment, but refused to say that they prefer even the most attractive black woman over the fattest, ugliest white man. Some of them have also said that they don’t mind an MtF transgender sexual partner, since the race of the person did not change. Hence, we have discovered something quite revealing about contemporary WNs.

    They can always write what you just did, but refuse to do that. Hence, they aren’t quite what you assume them to be.

    I don’t add names to that list lightly. They have all either said that they prefer a white man over a black woman, or at least failed to say that even the most attractive black woman is the less-unappealing choice of the two, when asked two or more times. A heterosexual would have no problem saying what you just did.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Thomm

    I actually agree with you that any guy who would prefer a white man over a black woman to appease some WN fear of race mixing has their priorities all messed up.
    However, I find it odd that you are so exercised about the whole thing.
    I tend to avoid parts of UNZ which are prominently WN since the topic frequently devolves into stupidification.

    I also kind of assume that there is a fair bit of shit-posting, trolling, and general obfuscation in a decent amount of internet comment sections, besides the fact that a free speech forum like UNZ is likely to attract a certain number of misanthropes, nuts, and degenerates. The fact that there might be people on UNZ who fit your description is not surprising to me, but I don't attach much significance to it.
    UNZ is sometimes a strange and wonderful gutter of the internet...

    Replies: @Thomm

    , @schnellandine
    @Thomm

    You are the modern instance of The Great Loyalty Oath Crusade; anyone not replying to your latest queerfest is a queer. Simply to ignore you is evidence of gay butt fealty.

    See a psych.

    Replies: @Thomm

  169. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Isn’t monetary policy a type of government power? What other power should the government use to control inflation that is not monetary policy?
     
    So sorry for multiple quotes, entirely my fault. New phone and so on.

    But thats an important point. Yes, monetary policy is a type of government power.

    And LOL you just lived through "other" power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -$40/barrel.

    That's the power the government can use to control inflation.

    This was a test run for WW3 preparations (so is current "energy shortage"), but generally, government has more tools than mere monetary policy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    you just lived through “other” power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -\$40/barrel.

    Okay, but

    1) governments didn’t “shut down the economy” (more accurately, restrict certain types of commerce) to control inflation. They did it to control a virus.

    2) The restrictions’ effects on prices were varied. Some prices went down (oil). Some prices went up (construction materials).

    3) Among the commodities whose prices went down, they soon went back up, and typically higher than they were before, so even if the restrictions were intended to control inflation, their “success” was only very scattered and only very temporary, which is to say, they didn’t really work.

    4) Meanwhile, whatever happened in the early months of 2020, prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy (in this case, incontinent money printing), so it still looks like money printing is the main thing—and perhaps only thing—that matters for inflation, which shouldn’t be too surprising since “inflation” literally means that the money supply has outstripped the assets that it is supposed to represent.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy
     
    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply. And, supply in almost all categories is still restricted. While USD monetary policy is unhelpful. Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.

    There is one silver lining to all of this. What U.S. citizens perceive as "foreign trade" inflation, provides overwhelming momentum for the ideas of MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Whether you (or I) believe it is econometricially true or false... MAGA can easily and convincingly sell this as "China, China, China". And, that explanation will ring immediately true based on the current massive port backlog imagery.

    PEACE 😇

    #LetsGoBrandon

     
    https://i.imgflip.com/5qhiwa.jpg

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    , @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    What A123 said.

    Also, inflation is still rather low considering the epic sale of supply chain disruption we are experiencing.

    If I were a war planner, here's how my ledger would look like:

    1. National ability of the medical sector to deal with mass casualty event - Fail.
    2. Ability of supply chain to adapt to challenges such as port slowdowns and energy crunch - Actually, not bad, so far. Could be worse.

    People are just spoiled. So we went from 2% inflation to 5% inflation. The horror! In the 90's, we ran at 3-4% inflation and that was a good thing. Even Russia, a country that hyperinflates when a fly sneezes, is at 7%. Which is their normal range even a decade ago.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine. We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  170. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    How does Russia government money printing improve GDP growth? Yes, it improves nominal GDP through sheer ruble increase, but how can it improve real GDP?
     
    It will drive demand and investment in the service sector which is the most important sector in developed economies.

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that's like 80% of the entire economy. Russia is seriously underperforming in this respect, and budget deficit will help to close the gap.

    Replies: @utu, @Almost Missouri

    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that’s like 80% of the entire economy.

    That may be true, but it is not necessarily commendable. If 80% of your economy is bureaucrats buying toxic drinks to piss them out a few hours later, then 80% of your economy is bullsh*t, and you would be no worse off if that 80% disappeared.

    I recognize that on paper this kind of thing drives up the all-holy GDP, but such GDP fetishism is as deluded as a car owner saying, “my engine RPMs are way up, so I must be reaching my destinations much faster” while his transmission is slipping, or a homeowner saying, “My house is freezing! If I could just make the reading on this thermometer be higher then everything would be fine!” while breathing on the thermometer bulb to raise the “temperature”.

    It is entirely possible to log transactions that create no value or even destroy value. But this obvious fact at micro-scale is somehow lost at macro-scale because in GDP-universe everything is recorded at |absolute value| so macroeconomists are congenitally unable to distinguish between value creation and value destruction. It is almost a form of psychosis.

    “GDP just doubled because everyone bought poison to kill their neighbor. Things are great!”
    —Macroeconomists

    If Russia is wise, it will not follow the West down the shaded path of GDP worship.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    True, GDP is a largely made up number, exactly for the reasons you describe (the best way to grow real GDP in the US is to give everyone cancer because medical payments will skyrocket and the sector is already huge, so it can absorb a lot of new demand).

    However, it's not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that's their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people. And no, they wouldn't all become brilliant rocket scientists once the bars closed - that's not really how it works.

    So true, GDP level doesn't really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Yellowface Anon

  171. @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    -adjusts monocle-
    Look here Old Sport, while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, "dusky races" as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
    Good Lord!

    Replies: @Thomm, @Truth, @Truth

    LOL, Raw oysters are an aphrodisiac.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    Certainly. But since everyone in the thread is throwing out the plausible rankings of sex with most anything and everything, why leave out the mollusks?
    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.

    Replies: @A123, @schnellandine

  172. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.
     
    Yep. Always has been. Welcome to the real world :)

    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.
     
    Again, absolutely correct. Now you can see why economics is easy when you strip it from bullshit.

    Right, but that’s the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.
     
    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector - they get to create whatever money they want. The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards. State, or banker fat cats? Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?
     
    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?
     
    I watch credit markets as a hobby, and 100% private debt to GDP is when I start making noises for state intervention. At 300% private sector debt to GDP, the need for state intervention becomes obvious to anybody with IQ above room temperature, and we are going to vastly higher ratios than that. By 2050, 500% private sector debt to GDP ratio will be perfectly normal. And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem. But state will have to be a part of the equation. Its inevitable.

    By … printing more money? And giving it to … whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

     

    Yep. Government has a duty to maintain corporate sales aka aggregate demand so that asset prices don't deviate too much from revenues. This means Universal Basic Income for the poors. Not to benefit the poors, but to maintain asset prices. That's how asset price mechanics work.

    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?
     
    WW2 definitely was. And so was WW1, and all other wars in history. Soldiers are simply Basic Income recipients, and government in wartime provides demand. Which is why war is so popular throughout history, but we really can do better once we are honest about the mechanism.

    That’s an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.
     
    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and "international investment community". Just like Weimar Germans did. Food farms are an entirely different question. In the real world, you seriously don't want to be a slave forever to "investment community", with infinite debt repayments. Both Zimbabweans and Germans understood that correctly.

    They shouldn’t. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    Welcome to the real world, that's how it has always been. State is always a part of the equation.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Barbarossa

    the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.

    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector – they get to create whatever money they want.

    But if they give it to someone who doesn’t pay it back, then they’re effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.

    The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards.

    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.

    Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.

    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?

    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.

    Just a note on nomenclature, since I gather we are using slightly different terminology: when I say “banking cartel”, I am referring to the crony pseudo-banks that exist off government fiat money, as opposed to (increasingly rare) real banks that have to balance their books, make productive loans, etc. The banking cartel get their money from the government fiat (i.e., mass dilution) operations. (Yes, they often have some legitimate banking operations as well, but let us not be deceived by their window dressing into mistaking their main activity.)

    And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem.

    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?

    But currently, the only macro-significant negative interest rates I am aware of is the negative interest rates that depositors “get” (i.e., pay) at the European central banks (i.e., crony fiat money presses).

    But state will have to be a part of the equation.

    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that’s arguably why inflation is such a problem.

    Its inevitable.

    I don’t know if it is or not, but it certainly is something of a self-licking ice-cream cone: demand government intervention to fix the distortions caused by government intervention.

    what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating?

    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and “international investment community”.

    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn’t. They’re still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars. Zimbabwe only hyperinflated their way out of having their own currency. The Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist.

    Just like Weimar Germans did.

    Eh, they didn’t get out of it either. They were levied in gold. Germany only finished paying off the “reparations” in 2010, 91 years after they were levied.

    Brennus may have been a hard man, but he was much more honest than the Allied victors in the Word Wars.

    P.S. No worries about the separate replies. It’s actually easier than one big reply.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    But if they give it to someone who doesn’t pay it back, then they’re effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.
     
    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out. Also, banks create money. So it's pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement (there are interbank loans and Federal Reserve discount window etc). You have to screw up really bad.

    It would be like fish in the ocean running out of water. And not even that, the fish doesn't just swim in the water, it has been provided with its own water making machine and has the license to print water. You literally have to be dumber than a brick to run out of water. No offense to bricks. But it does happen occasionally, unfortunately.

    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.
     
    Private sector doesn't always fund productive investment (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment), and government doesn't always waste money. Government and private sector generally work better together when they complement each other.


    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.
     
    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication. This will be the fastest civil war in history.

    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?
     
    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO

    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that’s arguably why inflation is such a problem.
     
    For who? The only time we didn't have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don't want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation. Inflation is like body temperature - nobody wants to be at room temperature. Sure, too high is problematic, it means your body/economy is struggling with something, but generally, too high is better than too low.

    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn’t. They’re still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars.
     
    What's a "real currency"? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly. They are traded differently, but not because they are fundamentally different. US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/government-debt-to-gdp

    They were also in a decade long economic depression.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/gdp-growth-annual

    Post hyperinflation, they returned to growth, and slashed their debt to GDP to like 70%. Their debt to GDP became lower than US lol. It was the right move. And sure, they want more money (who doesn't), and they will have to pay something after restructuring. But it won't be 250% of their entire GDP.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  173. @mal
    @utu


    What about the self-sufficiency and self-reliance aspect of economy?
     
    No such thing. State of course must encourage private initiative but fundamentally in a nation, we are all in this together, and so the state has the duty to the less fortunate. And of course, in return, state has the right to request certain services from the less fortunate. Nothing evil or impossible, but if the state provides for your well being, it is well within state's right to ask for a modest service in return. Like clean your street or something. Basically, we don't want the poors starving, but we don't want to end up with Camden, New Jersey everywhere either.

    I respect libertarian worldview, but it ultimately covers the >100 IQ crowd. Which is fine, but those people will always be OK. The biggest problem for any society is what to do with <100 IQ citizens. And no, we are not going to genocide them. Both the smart people and the stupid people need to know that their real allegiance and duty is to the state. And that the state knows it has both duties and privileges, clearly outlined, with respect to the people. Basically, state must work to maximize both corporate freedom and comfort levels for the less fortunate. And in return, of course, state has the right to demand modest services from the people.

    Again, remember, we are all in this together, with our duties and privileges as it befits a nation, nobody should be excluded, for better or worse. None of this "self sufficiency" nonsense.

    Replies: @sher singh, @Triteleia Laxa

    Your comments on this thread are really good. People should try their best to understand them. The observations on money and the economy are spot on, while noticing that “in the real world” everyone was always in it together in a way, and that there will be no genocide of the less able, is critical to understanding. I particularly like your point that we should be honest about the previous purpose of the big wars and therefore find a way to achieve the same thing, but with far less suffering.

    I always liked libertarian economics. Partly because I have no reason nor desire to take from others, but, just as importantly, because things like the non-aggression principle would assert my own boundaries when I was loathe to do so directly and more generally. My attachment to such definitions of right and wrong weakened as I learned to not always accept other people’s burdens.

    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?

    Also thanks.

    • Thanks: mal
    • Replies: @A123
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The closure of "mental hospitals" in the U.S. was a mistake. There are those that need permanently supervised residency.

    Others, have limited capability and income potential that works best in a semi-controlled environment adjacent to such facilities. While places ordinary people are likely to avoid, they would be both cheaper and much more humane than the current status quo. Incarcerating the mentally ill in correctional facilities makes their mental problems worse.

    PEACE 😇

    , @mal
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?
     
    So sorry, I didn't mean to ignore you, but its a rather complex subject. You don't really learn by reading stuff about it. You learn by reading criticism of the stuff you want to learn and then weeding out the fluff.

    So for criticism of the state, I found Hayek rather convincing. And for criticism of financial imperialism as it rules today, your will find no better critic than Vladimir Lenin circa 1900-1910. And for Keynesisan take on things, Mike Hudson is a good resource.

    Once you have good background, go to Zero Hedge. Their doomer takes are worthless, but they do post good research letters from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs and other power players. With good historical grounding, you will be able to see what the overlords want other people to see. This will at least get you started.

    Replies: @Yevardian

  174. @Truth
    @A123

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I'd have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    I mean, I don't find Rosie O'donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, "Rosie, turn off all of the lights so I can think about someone else and I hope you know how to give head to get me started."

    Replies: @Thomm, @nebulafox, @A123

    Alcohol is a miracle drug in that situation. Turns out you really can close your eyes and pretend she’s someone else.

    • LOL: iffen
  175. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    you just lived through “other” power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -$40/barrel.
     
    Okay, but

    1) governments didn't "shut down the economy" (more accurately, restrict certain types of commerce) to control inflation. They did it to control a virus.

    2) The restrictions' effects on prices were varied. Some prices went down (oil). Some prices went up (construction materials).

    3) Among the commodities whose prices went down, they soon went back up, and typically higher than they were before, so even if the restrictions were intended to control inflation, their "success" was only very scattered and only very temporary, which is to say, they didn't really work.

    4) Meanwhile, whatever happened in the early months of 2020, prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy (in this case, incontinent money printing), so it still looks like money printing is the main thing—and perhaps only thing—that matters for inflation, which shouldn't be too surprising since "inflation" literally means that the money supply has outstripped the assets that it is supposed to represent.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

    prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy

    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply. And, supply in almost all categories is still restricted. While USD monetary policy is unhelpful. Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.

    There is one silver lining to all of this. What U.S. citizens perceive as “foreign trade” inflation, provides overwhelming momentum for the ideas of MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Whether you (or I) believe it is econometricially true or false… MAGA can easily and convincingly sell this as “China, China, China”. And, that explanation will ring immediately true based on the current massive port backlog imagery.

    PEACE 😇

    #LetsGoBrandon

     

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @A123


    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply.
     
    In theory. But as prices rise, demand abates, so it also self-limiting. In practice, inflation is almost always from governments futzing with their currencies. Indeed, I would argue that so-called demand-driven "inflation" isn't really inflation at all but simply the normal rebalancing between the three legs of supply, demand, and price that perpetually occurs always and everywhere. Economists thinking that any time prices go up or down is a distortion ("inflation" or "deflation") while if supply or demand go up or down it's just a normal thing, is another of the peculiar psychoses that afflict modern macroeconomists. In reality, all three are in constant motion, constantly rebalancing each other.

    True inflation—inflation from excess currency—really is a distortion since it is warping the natural link between supply, demand, and prices by spewing extra measuring units into the system without creating any concomitant value.

    The current global inflation is obviously the result of global money printing.

    Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.
     
    Because every nation is also printing excess currency. In some cases they can't help it. Every country that has dollarized it's currency or whose currency is pegged to the dollar (e.g., China, Saudi Arabia) is automatically getting inflated whenever the dollar inflates. They might not be happy about that and may move or remove their dollar pegs if the dollar inflates too much. (Indeed, if you start hearing talk of other countries removing their dollar pegs, it will be a sign that we are on the verge of a serious financial crisis.) There are other countries that depend on exports, especially to US Dollar markets (e.g., Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer. For other countries, it's just pure opportunism. Governments always like looting via their currency, and the fact that the US government is doing so with gusto now provides them with the perfect cover to do what they always want to do. Still others may be doing it for the same reason the Fed claims to be doing it: a Keynesian stimulation of demand stunted by lockdown restrictions. In any case, the Fed likes the other major world currencies to follow suit with whatever the Fed does in order to keep relative prices stable, and generally they do mostly follow suit, probably with a little behind-the-scenes encouragement at times.

    There is one silver lining to all of this.
     
    I agree it would be a silver lining (for everyone) if the result of all this would be less globalism and more self-reliance. I'm not sure that's the way to bet though.

    Replies: @A123

  176. @Triteleia Laxa
    @mal

    Your comments on this thread are really good. People should try their best to understand them. The observations on money and the economy are spot on, while noticing that "in the real world" everyone was always in it together in a way, and that there will be no genocide of the less able, is critical to understanding. I particularly like your point that we should be honest about the previous purpose of the big wars and therefore find a way to achieve the same thing, but with far less suffering.

    I always liked libertarian economics. Partly because I have no reason nor desire to take from others, but, just as importantly, because things like the non-aggression principle would assert my own boundaries when I was loathe to do so directly and more generally. My attachment to such definitions of right and wrong weakened as I learned to not always accept other people's burdens.

    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?

    Also thanks.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

    The closure of “mental hospitals” in the U.S. was a mistake. There are those that need permanently supervised residency.

    Others, have limited capability and income potential that works best in a semi-controlled environment adjacent to such facilities. While places ordinary people are likely to avoid, they would be both cheaper and much more humane than the current status quo. Incarcerating the mentally ill in correctional facilities makes their mental problems worse.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Barbarossa
  177. @Truth
    @A123

    Old Sport, seriously, I have asked this question no less than 100x now because I when Thomm started here, I thought he was nuts. But I am having a hard time understanding, why is it hard for a man to say, I'd have sex with a woman I was not attracted to, before I had sex with a man.

    I mean, I don't find Rosie O'donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, "Rosie, turn off all of the lights so I can think about someone else and I hope you know how to give head to get me started."

    Replies: @Thomm, @nebulafox, @A123

    I mean, I don’t find Rosie O’donnel attractive, but if it came down to her and Denzel, I would say, “Rosie, turn off all of the lights

    You omit the always present option number three. If the options were:

    -1- Rosie O’Donnell
    -2- Gérard Depardieu
    -3- Chewing your man bits off with your own teeth.

    I would give strong consideration to #3. Once anything has been inside of Rosie, do you really want to keep it?

    (shudder)

    PEACE 😇

  178. @Truth
    @Barbarossa

    LOL, Raw oysters are an aphrodisiac.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    Certainly. But since everyone in the thread is throwing out the plausible rankings of sex with most anything and everything, why leave out the mollusks?
    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.

    • Agree: A123
    • LOL: Truth
    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa


    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.
     
    But I didn't even eat salmon.
    -- What about the mollusks?

    I do not know if eat is the right word for the mollusks
    -- (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more)

    PEACE 😇

     
    http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/052/199/94e.gif

    , @schnellandine
    @Barbarossa


    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent,
     
    A cruel suggestion for Troof, who even with his regular speech runs daily the risk of tripping over his lips.
  179. @GLT
    @mal


    Same with Weimar Germans. Their mistake was losing WW1, not hyperinflating to get out of reparations afterwards.
     
    But they were specified in gold backed currency. Am I missing something?

    Replies: @mal

    They were printing money to buy gold and whatever other hard assets they could on the open market. And then used that to make payments to the “Allies”.

    The “Allies”, the British and and French, were then forced to pay back the loans that the American Banks made to help British and French fund weapons purchases during the war. This wasn’t very nice or even “ally” thing to do as usually those loans were restructured and/or forgiven.

    At the time when even Soviet Russia was under gold standard, losing your gold meant losing your economy. Net result was:

    1. Germans lost their gold and hyperinflated.
    2. British and French Empires received a backstabbing mortal blow from the Americans from which they never recovered. That was the end of European supremacy in global affairs.
    3. Americans literally made a killing and became a superpower with all that gold. The amount of gold on deposit in the newly minted Federal Reserve system increased from like 500 tons in 1913 to something like 3000 tons by 1923. And keep in mind in 1913, America was not a poor country. Basically, that money is what got “Roaring 20’s” party started in the US.

  180. @songbird
    @A123

    Oddly enough, I think Heinlein's juveniles make him seem a bit more rightward-leaning and traditional than he really was. IMO, it was good that he had an editor. Chained Heinlein is better than unchained.

    In nature, it is easy to see many forms of color signaling. Since we see in color, I think we are not immune to it. Further, I think that any impartial attempt at quantification would show that in many movies, we see black faces (strongest color signal) out of proportion to what we would expect. And we would see the same in scifi novels.

    Was Heinlein color signaling with Johnny Rico? Put it in the demographic context of the '50s, and consider that Hispanics typically don't do a lot of reading (so not much of a market, even externally). And I think he was color signaling. But in a very subtle way, as we would expect from Heinlein who was by all accounts a very intelligent man.

    Replies: @Aedib

    Was Heinlein color signaling with Johnny Rico? Put it in the demographic context of the ’50s, and consider that Hispanics typically don’t do a lot of reading (so not much of a market, even externally).

    I don’t think so. These endless discussions about Johny Rico ethnicity (Was he a brown Filipino or a white Argentine?) are irrelevant because the world of Starship Troopers was already globalized. But it was in the opposite direction of current trends.

  181. @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    Certainly. But since everyone in the thread is throwing out the plausible rankings of sex with most anything and everything, why leave out the mollusks?
    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.

    Replies: @A123, @schnellandine

    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.

    But I didn’t even eat salmon.
    — What about the mollusks?

    I do not know if eat is the right word for the mollusks
    — (nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more)

    PEACE 😇

     

  182. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    you just lived through “other” power that government has to control the inflation. Just last year. Government shut down the economy due to pandemic and oil price dropped to -$40/barrel.
     
    Okay, but

    1) governments didn't "shut down the economy" (more accurately, restrict certain types of commerce) to control inflation. They did it to control a virus.

    2) The restrictions' effects on prices were varied. Some prices went down (oil). Some prices went up (construction materials).

    3) Among the commodities whose prices went down, they soon went back up, and typically higher than they were before, so even if the restrictions were intended to control inflation, their "success" was only very scattered and only very temporary, which is to say, they didn't really work.

    4) Meanwhile, whatever happened in the early months of 2020, prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy (in this case, incontinent money printing), so it still looks like money printing is the main thing—and perhaps only thing—that matters for inflation, which shouldn't be too surprising since "inflation" literally means that the money supply has outstripped the assets that it is supposed to represent.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

    What A123 said.

    Also, inflation is still rather low considering the epic sale of supply chain disruption we are experiencing.

    If I were a war planner, here’s how my ledger would look like:

    1. National ability of the medical sector to deal with mass casualty event – Fail.
    2. Ability of supply chain to adapt to challenges such as port slowdowns and energy crunch – Actually, not bad, so far. Could be worse.

    People are just spoiled. So we went from 2% inflation to 5% inflation. The horror! In the 90’s, we ran at 3-4% inflation and that was a good thing. Even Russia, a country that hyperinflates when a fly sneezes, is at 7%. Which is their normal range even a decade ago.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine. We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.

    • LOL: schnellandine
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    What A123 said.
     
    What I said to A123.

    Also, inflation is still rather low
     
    It's true it could be worse. OTOH, wait a few more months and it probably will be.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical
     
    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries. But this isn't surprising since it couldn't fiat spew until about WWI. At which point, just by coincidence, the currency suddenly started inflating and hasn't stopped since. Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous. You had to debase them while convincing everyone that they weren't really debased. Most traders saw through that and as a result we had things like Gresham's Law.

    We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.
     
    Yes, there was a school of thought that modest and steady inflation served as a kind of stealth slow-motion debt jubilee. Whether this is a good thing or not, I'll let others decide. But it doesn't matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn't like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was. And that is beside the fact that most inflation is created by currency authorities handing fresh currency to the banking cartels (i.e., creditors), which obviously does nothing to help debtors in the first place.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123, @mal

  183. @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    Certainly. But since everyone in the thread is throwing out the plausible rankings of sex with most anything and everything, why leave out the mollusks?
    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent, I promise it will be much more amusing.

    Replies: @A123, @schnellandine

    If you read my comment aloud in a supercilious English accent,

    A cruel suggestion for Troof, who even with his regular speech runs daily the risk of tripping over his lips.

  184. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    Basically, government workers will spend their money in bars which will create paychecks for bartenders. In US, that’s like 80% of the entire economy.
     
    That may be true, but it is not necessarily commendable. If 80% of your economy is bureaucrats buying toxic drinks to piss them out a few hours later, then 80% of your economy is bullsh*t, and you would be no worse off if that 80% disappeared.

    I recognize that on paper this kind of thing drives up the all-holy GDP, but such GDP fetishism is as deluded as a car owner saying, "my engine RPMs are way up, so I must be reaching my destinations much faster" while his transmission is slipping, or a homeowner saying, "My house is freezing! If I could just make the reading on this thermometer be higher then everything would be fine!" while breathing on the thermometer bulb to raise the "temperature".

    It is entirely possible to log transactions that create no value or even destroy value. But this obvious fact at micro-scale is somehow lost at macro-scale because in GDP-universe everything is recorded at |absolute value| so macroeconomists are congenitally unable to distinguish between value creation and value destruction. It is almost a form of psychosis.

    "GDP just doubled because everyone bought poison to kill their neighbor. Things are great!"
    —Macroeconomists

    If Russia is wise, it will not follow the West down the shaded path of GDP worship.

    Replies: @mal

    True, GDP is a largely made up number, exactly for the reasons you describe (the best way to grow real GDP in the US is to give everyone cancer because medical payments will skyrocket and the sector is already huge, so it can absorb a lot of new demand).

    However, it’s not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that’s their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people. And no, they wouldn’t all become brilliant rocket scientists once the bars closed – that’s not really how it works.

    So true, GDP level doesn’t really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that’s their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people.
     
    Perhaps it would have been clearer if I had said that ending valueless/value-destroying activity would make us no worse off economically. Politically, or even socially, legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars may indeed be preferable to legions of scheming revolutionaries in the streets, but that's not an economic argument, it's a political one. (Also one I'm not sure I agree with at this point. Not that I expect anyone to care about my political opinion.)

    Replies: @mal

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine.
     
    It's actually about whether trust in existing economic institutions can be sustained. If not, even if objective indicators are OK, people will still see lots of things crumbling.

    However, it’s not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

     

    Investment comes from savings where their real value isn't adequately captured by GDP. Read the Austrians. You can obviously say "money printer go brrrrr", but in fact that is about diluting the existing monetary supply and take a little chunk out of all existing savings & transactions.

    GDP level doesn’t really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
    How about the other way around? Common sense says so. GDP is just a number.

    Replies: @mal

  185. @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    prices are now up across the board and have been for a while, as a clear and obvious result of monetary policy
     
    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply. And, supply in almost all categories is still restricted. While USD monetary policy is unhelpful. Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.

    There is one silver lining to all of this. What U.S. citizens perceive as "foreign trade" inflation, provides overwhelming momentum for the ideas of MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Whether you (or I) believe it is econometricially true or false... MAGA can easily and convincingly sell this as "China, China, China". And, that explanation will ring immediately true based on the current massive port backlog imagery.

    PEACE 😇

    #LetsGoBrandon

     
    https://i.imgflip.com/5qhiwa.jpg

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply.

    In theory. But as prices rise, demand abates, so it also self-limiting. In practice, inflation is almost always from governments futzing with their currencies. Indeed, I would argue that so-called demand-driven “inflation” isn’t really inflation at all but simply the normal rebalancing between the three legs of supply, demand, and price that perpetually occurs always and everywhere. Economists thinking that any time prices go up or down is a distortion (“inflation” or “deflation”) while if supply or demand go up or down it’s just a normal thing, is another of the peculiar psychoses that afflict modern macroeconomists. In reality, all three are in constant motion, constantly rebalancing each other.

    True inflation—inflation from excess currency—really is a distortion since it is warping the natural link between supply, demand, and prices by spewing extra measuring units into the system without creating any concomitant value.

    The current global inflation is obviously the result of global money printing.

    Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.

    Because every nation is also printing excess currency. In some cases they can’t help it. Every country that has dollarized it’s currency or whose currency is pegged to the dollar (e.g., China, Saudi Arabia) is automatically getting inflated whenever the dollar inflates. They might not be happy about that and may move or remove their dollar pegs if the dollar inflates too much. (Indeed, if you start hearing talk of other countries removing their dollar pegs, it will be a sign that we are on the verge of a serious financial crisis.) There are other countries that depend on exports, especially to US Dollar markets (e.g., Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer. For other countries, it’s just pure opportunism. Governments always like looting via their currency, and the fact that the US government is doing so with gusto now provides them with the perfect cover to do what they always want to do. Still others may be doing it for the same reason the Fed claims to be doing it: a Keynesian stimulation of demand stunted by lockdown restrictions. In any case, the Fed likes the other major world currencies to follow suit with whatever the Fed does in order to keep relative prices stable, and generally they do mostly follow suit, probably with a little behind-the-scenes encouragement at times.

    There is one silver lining to all of this.

    I agree it would be a silver lining (for everyone) if the result of all this would be less globalism and more self-reliance. I’m not sure that’s the way to bet though.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer
     
    Let me repeat/rephrase one of my prior quotes:

    All trade is managed trade. If a nation does not manage trade when everyone else does... That nation is a guaranteed looser.
    ___

    Germany is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) and created negative rates, dragging everyone else along.

    China is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) via various mechanisms "A" vs. "B" shares, investment restrictions, etc.

    If the U.S. refused to follow the China/Germany manipulation lead... Americans would be guaranteed losers. Blaming the Fed does not make sense. They are doing what they can in a world trade & currency system intentionally broken by others.
    ___

    Any long term solution requires MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Reducing interaction with manipulative Germany and World #1 manipulator The CCP, is the minimum starting point towards resolving the USD currency mess.

    Once the influence of malicious currency manipulators is diminished. A high tariff will provides the resources necessary to begin unwinding the USD currency situation in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden average Americans.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  186. @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    True, GDP is a largely made up number, exactly for the reasons you describe (the best way to grow real GDP in the US is to give everyone cancer because medical payments will skyrocket and the sector is already huge, so it can absorb a lot of new demand).

    However, it's not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that's their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people. And no, they wouldn't all become brilliant rocket scientists once the bars closed - that's not really how it works.

    So true, GDP level doesn't really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Yellowface Anon

    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that’s their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people.

    Perhaps it would have been clearer if I had said that ending valueless/value-destroying activity would make us no worse off economically. Politically, or even socially, legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars may indeed be preferable to legions of scheming revolutionaries in the streets, but that’s not an economic argument, it’s a political one. (Also one I’m not sure I agree with at this point. Not that I expect anyone to care about my political opinion.)

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    Ah, but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place.

    "I increased my bar profit margin by 10% by skipping payoff to the police! Too bad I got shot in the head by a roving street gang the next day."

    So keep those legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars, I say.

    The primacy of politics vs economics is basically the discussion Mikel and I had the other day. Red beads on an island. Can't ignore those power verticals which always develop whenever there are more than 1 human around. Even if they cause loss of economic efficiency. Economic efficiency does no good to dead people.

    Anyway, a dollar from a woozy bureaucrat spends just as well as the dollar from anybody else, so bar owners and bartenders don't complain.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mikel

  187. I’ve been feeling (inspired by the horseshoe woke/WN posts) that there exists a bipartisan consensus in the US to:
    1) Consolidate the dominance, up to quasi-one-party rule, of their own party
    2) Elimination of oppositional groups with possible violent means (e.g. threats of deportation or detention)
    Only that everyone see things in the exclusive benefit of their own party.
    It shows us one of the ways a bipartisan republican political system can devolve into disequilibrium, both parties being the spitting image of each other. This would appear to be a perfect explanation of the American political impasse if the UN & WEF didn’t exist.

  188. @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    What A123 said.

    Also, inflation is still rather low considering the epic sale of supply chain disruption we are experiencing.

    If I were a war planner, here's how my ledger would look like:

    1. National ability of the medical sector to deal with mass casualty event - Fail.
    2. Ability of supply chain to adapt to challenges such as port slowdowns and energy crunch - Actually, not bad, so far. Could be worse.

    People are just spoiled. So we went from 2% inflation to 5% inflation. The horror! In the 90's, we ran at 3-4% inflation and that was a good thing. Even Russia, a country that hyperinflates when a fly sneezes, is at 7%. Which is their normal range even a decade ago.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine. We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    What A123 said.

    What I said to A123.

    Also, inflation is still rather low

    It’s true it could be worse. OTOH, wait a few more months and it probably will be.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical

    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries. But this isn’t surprising since it couldn’t fiat spew until about WWI. At which point, just by coincidence, the currency suddenly started inflating and hasn’t stopped since. Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous. You had to debase them while convincing everyone that they weren’t really debased. Most traders saw through that and as a result we had things like Gresham’s Law.

    We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.

    Yes, there was a school of thought that modest and steady inflation served as a kind of stealth slow-motion debt jubilee. Whether this is a good thing or not, I’ll let others decide. But it doesn’t matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn’t like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was. And that is beside the fact that most inflation is created by currency authorities handing fresh currency to the banking cartels (i.e., creditors), which obviously does nothing to help debtors in the first place.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Almost Missouri


    I agree it would be a silver lining (for everyone) if the result of all this would be less globalism and more self-reliance.
     
    It will be brutal and and result far less "advanced" & complex. But I'd assume it's the outcome of a new, post-liberal order.

    Everything else is in fact the symptoms of how much trust is there in the economic institutions - if you believe a little bit of inflation is alright, like frog-boiling, then it appears fine in the short or medium term. But if you believe the institutions are problematic, then wealth will start being diverted into substantial assets, and the value of currencies will start dropping. Hyperinflation is more social than economic. Fiat is credit, is the trust in the ability at first to redeem commodity money, then not to tamper seriously with the money supply.
    , @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.
     
    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts (1)

    Benchmark Replacement Waterfall
    Step 1: Forward-Looking Term SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 2: Daily Simple Average SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 3: Lender Selected Rate and Adjustment

    As of the date of this writing, the Forward-Looking Term SOFR rate does not yet exist and will need to be derived from transactions in the SOFR derivatives market. The indexes will be published by a third-party administrator under an approved/endorsed calculation methodology. However, on March 23, 2021, the ARRC stated they will not be able to recommend forward-looking SOFR Term indexes by mid-2021. Additionally, the ARRC also stated they cannot guarantee that it will be able to recommend an administrator that can produce robust Term index by the end of 2021.
     

    Commitment to forward looking SOFR has been sparse. Almost everything is headed towards the "Step 2" daily benchmark that has no forward looking capability.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.agloan.com/libor-transition/

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    , @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.
     
    Yea, but that's not really a good thing. I would rather live in a modern hyperinflating Zimbabwe than medieval England. Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up. Otherwise, we would just have constant wars over money, which is a rather silly reason for war. Land, population, or resources? Sure. But fighting over a made up medium of exchange is like kindergarten level.

    Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous.
     
    Yes, and the only way to get more money was to organize a raid on Spanish Treasure Fleets. How many people today even know how to board a galleon properly?

    But it doesn’t matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn’t like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.
     
    Echoing A123's sentiment here, this looks at the short end mostly. But at the long end, US Treasury 10 year benchmark is happily trading at 1.5%, and 30 year at around 2%.

    Basically, bond markets are telling us "no inflation for next 30 years". And no, it's not all Fed games. Subpar economic growth rather than inflation will be the main issue going forward.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  189. @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    True, GDP is a largely made up number, exactly for the reasons you describe (the best way to grow real GDP in the US is to give everyone cancer because medical payments will skyrocket and the sector is already huge, so it can absorb a lot of new demand).

    However, it's not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that's their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people. And no, they wouldn't all become brilliant rocket scientists once the bars closed - that's not really how it works.

    So true, GDP level doesn't really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Yellowface Anon

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine.

    It’s actually about whether trust in existing economic institutions can be sustained. If not, even if objective indicators are OK, people will still see lots of things crumbling.

    However, it’s not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

    Investment comes from savings where their real value isn’t adequately captured by GDP. Read the Austrians. You can obviously say “money printer go brrrrr”, but in fact that is about diluting the existing monetary supply and take a little chunk out of all existing savings & transactions.

    GDP level doesn’t really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

    How about the other way around? Common sense says so. GDP is just a number.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Yellowface Anon

    Yea yea yea, savings and the Austrians. That world went away in 2008. For better or worse, but its not possible to bring it back.

    Let's take our MAGA friend here, A123. Now, we may have different perspectives, but if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that's kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don't share the whole "hate China" thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don't see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.

    So how to do this? How to industrialize America? Free market? Free market only cares that it's cheap which means Asia. Free market doesn't care about national security or even reliability five years down the road.

    Market driven interest rates will be higher than what they are currently being managed to. How do you finance $billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send $100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such $100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That's some very expensive key strokes.

    Which is why I don't really see the reasoning for the "abolish the Fed" crowd. And savings argument doesn't fly either - its not like there's a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It's all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.

    So the mechanics of real economy, not just financial one, is quite different from Austrians' description, as far as I can see.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

  190. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    What A123 said.
     
    What I said to A123.

    Also, inflation is still rather low
     
    It's true it could be worse. OTOH, wait a few more months and it probably will be.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical
     
    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries. But this isn't surprising since it couldn't fiat spew until about WWI. At which point, just by coincidence, the currency suddenly started inflating and hasn't stopped since. Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous. You had to debase them while convincing everyone that they weren't really debased. Most traders saw through that and as a result we had things like Gresham's Law.

    We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.
     
    Yes, there was a school of thought that modest and steady inflation served as a kind of stealth slow-motion debt jubilee. Whether this is a good thing or not, I'll let others decide. But it doesn't matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn't like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was. And that is beside the fact that most inflation is created by currency authorities handing fresh currency to the banking cartels (i.e., creditors), which obviously does nothing to help debtors in the first place.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123, @mal

    I agree it would be a silver lining (for everyone) if the result of all this would be less globalism and more self-reliance.

    It will be brutal and and result far less “advanced” & complex. But I’d assume it’s the outcome of a new, post-liberal order.

    Everything else is in fact the symptoms of how much trust is there in the economic institutions – if you believe a little bit of inflation is alright, like frog-boiling, then it appears fine in the short or medium term. But if you believe the institutions are problematic, then wealth will start being diverted into substantial assets, and the value of currencies will start dropping. Hyperinflation is more social than economic. Fiat is credit, is the trust in the ability at first to redeem commodity money, then not to tamper seriously with the money supply.

  191. @Almost Missouri
    @mal



    the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.
     
    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector – they get to create whatever money they want.
     
    But if they give it to someone who doesn't pay it back, then they're effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.

    The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards.
     
    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.

    Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.
     
    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.


    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?
     
    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.
     
    Just a note on nomenclature, since I gather we are using slightly different terminology: when I say "banking cartel", I am referring to the crony pseudo-banks that exist off government fiat money, as opposed to (increasingly rare) real banks that have to balance their books, make productive loans, etc. The banking cartel get their money from the government fiat (i.e., mass dilution) operations. (Yes, they often have some legitimate banking operations as well, but let us not be deceived by their window dressing into mistaking their main activity.)

    And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem.
     
    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?

    But currently, the only macro-significant negative interest rates I am aware of is the negative interest rates that depositors "get" (i.e., pay) at the European central banks (i.e., crony fiat money presses).


    But state will have to be a part of the equation.
     
    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that's arguably why inflation is such a problem.

    Its inevitable.
     
    I don't know if it is or not, but it certainly is something of a self-licking ice-cream cone: demand government intervention to fix the distortions caused by government intervention.


    what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating?
     
    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and “international investment community”.
     
    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn't. They're still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars. Zimbabwe only hyperinflated their way out of having their own currency. The Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist.

    Just like Weimar Germans did.
     
    Eh, they didn't get out of it either. They were levied in gold. Germany only finished paying off the "reparations" in 2010, 91 years after they were levied.

    Brennus may have been a hard man, but he was much more honest than the Allied victors in the Word Wars.

    P.S. No worries about the separate replies. It's actually easier than one big reply.

    Replies: @mal

    But if they give it to someone who doesn’t pay it back, then they’re effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.

    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out. Also, banks create money. So it’s pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement (there are interbank loans and Federal Reserve discount window etc). You have to screw up really bad.

    It would be like fish in the ocean running out of water. And not even that, the fish doesn’t just swim in the water, it has been provided with its own water making machine and has the license to print water. You literally have to be dumber than a brick to run out of water. No offense to bricks. But it does happen occasionally, unfortunately.

    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.

    Private sector doesn’t always fund productive investment (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment), and government doesn’t always waste money. Government and private sector generally work better together when they complement each other.

    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.

    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication. This will be the fastest civil war in history.

    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?

    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO

    [MORE]

    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that’s arguably why inflation is such a problem.

    For who? The only time we didn’t have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don’t want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation. Inflation is like body temperature – nobody wants to be at room temperature. Sure, too high is problematic, it means your body/economy is struggling with something, but generally, too high is better than too low.

    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn’t. They’re still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars.

    What’s a “real currency”? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly. They are traded differently, but not because they are fundamentally different. US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/government-debt-to-gdp

    They were also in a decade long economic depression.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/gdp-growth-annual

    Post hyperinflation, they returned to growth, and slashed their debt to GDP to like 70%. Their debt to GDP became lower than US lol. It was the right move. And sure, they want more money (who doesn’t), and they will have to pay something after restructuring. But it won’t be 250% of their entire GDP.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out.
     
    "important enough" = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive

    Also, banks create money.
     
    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.

    Fake ("central") banks create money just by printing (i.e., counterfeiting) it. Unfortunately, the opportunities for this are infinite, or limited only by currency collapse.

    So it’s pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement...
     
    ...if you are a central (fake) bank. If you are a real bank that actually needs balanced books, it is all too easy to go broke.

    You have to screw up really bad.
     
    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.

    Private sector doesn’t always fund productive investment
     
    True, but it does so more than the governemtn does, which is the main alternative.

    (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment)
     
    Lately, in the US, this is true. But that is an effect of so much of the banking sector being nothing more than a corrupt cartel snouting in the central bank's seigniorage (i.e., counterfeiting) process rather than doing anything actually productive.

    and government doesn’t always waste money.
     
    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today's government or the government of fifty years ago? Today's government or the government of twenty years hence?

    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.
     
    Again, this is a list of defects, not of virtues.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication.
     
    If there is a civil war, expect the diabetes people to be mostly in government uniforms.


    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?
     
    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.
     
    Yes, that was the point. But I don't know how well defined the schedule is.

    The only time we didn’t have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don’t want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation.
     
    I'm not a zero-inflation zealot. I merely say lower inflation is better than higher inflation. From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth. It may not have been a libertarian paradise, but it was good enough for government work. That worked for three decades; I see no reason we can't do it for another three. Well there is one reason: the government prefers to play money printer games.

    Inflation is like body temperature – nobody wants to be at room temperature.
     
    I'd say a better metaphor is that inflation is like blood volume — if it grows faster than your body you're gonna die of hypertension.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you're doing it wrong.

    What’s a “real currency”? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly.
     
    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is "more" in a "per asset" sense.)

    US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.
     
    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is ... amusing.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.
     
    Yeah ... I've always been skeptical of the utility of the debt-to-GDP yardstick, but I didn't get any more into it because we already had enough to discuss in these overlong comments.

    Replies: @mal

  192. @Almost Missouri
    @A123


    The core driver of inflation is demand higher than supply.
     
    In theory. But as prices rise, demand abates, so it also self-limiting. In practice, inflation is almost always from governments futzing with their currencies. Indeed, I would argue that so-called demand-driven "inflation" isn't really inflation at all but simply the normal rebalancing between the three legs of supply, demand, and price that perpetually occurs always and everywhere. Economists thinking that any time prices go up or down is a distortion ("inflation" or "deflation") while if supply or demand go up or down it's just a normal thing, is another of the peculiar psychoses that afflict modern macroeconomists. In reality, all three are in constant motion, constantly rebalancing each other.

    True inflation—inflation from excess currency—really is a distortion since it is warping the natural link between supply, demand, and prices by spewing extra measuring units into the system without creating any concomitant value.

    The current global inflation is obviously the result of global money printing.

    Every nation on the globe is experiencing inflation.
     
    Because every nation is also printing excess currency. In some cases they can't help it. Every country that has dollarized it's currency or whose currency is pegged to the dollar (e.g., China, Saudi Arabia) is automatically getting inflated whenever the dollar inflates. They might not be happy about that and may move or remove their dollar pegs if the dollar inflates too much. (Indeed, if you start hearing talk of other countries removing their dollar pegs, it will be a sign that we are on the verge of a serious financial crisis.) There are other countries that depend on exports, especially to US Dollar markets (e.g., Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer. For other countries, it's just pure opportunism. Governments always like looting via their currency, and the fact that the US government is doing so with gusto now provides them with the perfect cover to do what they always want to do. Still others may be doing it for the same reason the Fed claims to be doing it: a Keynesian stimulation of demand stunted by lockdown restrictions. In any case, the Fed likes the other major world currencies to follow suit with whatever the Fed does in order to keep relative prices stable, and generally they do mostly follow suit, probably with a little behind-the-scenes encouragement at times.

    There is one silver lining to all of this.
     
    I agree it would be a silver lining (for everyone) if the result of all this would be less globalism and more self-reliance. I'm not sure that's the way to bet though.

    Replies: @A123

    Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer

    Let me repeat/rephrase one of my prior quotes:

    All trade is managed trade. If a nation does not manage trade when everyone else does… That nation is a guaranteed looser.
    ___

    Germany is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) and created negative rates, dragging everyone else along.

    China is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) via various mechanisms “A” vs. “B” shares, investment restrictions, etc.

    If the U.S. refused to follow the China/Germany manipulation lead… Americans would be guaranteed losers. Blaming the Fed does not make sense. They are doing what they can in a world trade & currency system intentionally broken by others.
    ___

    Any long term solution requires MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Reducing interaction with manipulative Germany and World #1 manipulator The CCP, is the minimum starting point towards resolving the USD currency mess.

    Once the influence of malicious currency manipulators is diminished. A high tariff will provides the resources necessary to begin unwinding the USD currency situation in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden average Americans.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @A123


    Germany is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) and created negative rates, dragging everyone else along.
     
    If the US is the 800-pound gorilla, then Germany is a one hundred pound monkey, as measured by national wealth. Plus the US has thousands of troops on German soil, and numerous other influence levers Germany is powerless to resist. Germany can't drag the US anywhere it isn't already willing to go.

    China is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) via various mechanisms “A” vs. “B” shares, investment restrictions, etc.
     
    If by "currency manipulator" you mean "pegged their currency to US currency" then yes, I suppose they are. But again, pegging their currency to the dollar means that they are eating a big chunk of US inflation. China's bearing a cost too. Sadly, the benefit of this arrangement accrues mostly to the Fed and its crony cartel rather than to the average American.

    A high tariff will provides the resources necessary to begin unwinding the USD currency situation in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden average Americans.
     
    I think it's worth a try. Unfortunately, this seems to be the opposite of the current administration's approach.
  193. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    What A123 said.
     
    What I said to A123.

    Also, inflation is still rather low
     
    It's true it could be worse. OTOH, wait a few more months and it probably will be.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical
     
    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries. But this isn't surprising since it couldn't fiat spew until about WWI. At which point, just by coincidence, the currency suddenly started inflating and hasn't stopped since. Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous. You had to debase them while convincing everyone that they weren't really debased. Most traders saw through that and as a result we had things like Gresham's Law.

    We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.
     
    Yes, there was a school of thought that modest and steady inflation served as a kind of stealth slow-motion debt jubilee. Whether this is a good thing or not, I'll let others decide. But it doesn't matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn't like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was. And that is beside the fact that most inflation is created by currency authorities handing fresh currency to the banking cartels (i.e., creditors), which obviously does nothing to help debtors in the first place.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123, @mal

    most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.

    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts (1)

    Benchmark Replacement Waterfall
    Step 1: Forward-Looking Term SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 2: Daily Simple Average SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 3: Lender Selected Rate and Adjustment

    As of the date of this writing, the Forward-Looking Term SOFR rate does not yet exist and will need to be derived from transactions in the SOFR derivatives market. The indexes will be published by a third-party administrator under an approved/endorsed calculation methodology. However, on March 23, 2021, the ARRC stated they will not be able to recommend forward-looking SOFR Term indexes by mid-2021. Additionally, the ARRC also stated they cannot guarantee that it will be able to recommend an administrator that can produce robust Term index by the end of 2021.

    Commitment to forward looking SOFR has been sparse. Almost everything is headed towards the “Step 2” daily benchmark that has no forward looking capability.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.agloan.com/libor-transition/

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @A123


    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts
     
    Yes, Libor is headed to obsolescence, which is why I said "or some other index". The point is that whatever is the specific mechanism last year, this year, or next year, creditors have gotten adept at insulating themselves from soft defaults via inflation, so the claimed "benefit" of slo-mo debt jubilees via inflation is overstated.

    Replies: @A123

  194. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    And yes, 80% of the economy is bullshit, but no, you would not be better off if it disappeared. I mean, people clearly want their drinks, that’s their preference. If the bars disappeared, you would just get millions of unemployed bartenders. And lots of grumpy people.
     
    Perhaps it would have been clearer if I had said that ending valueless/value-destroying activity would make us no worse off economically. Politically, or even socially, legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars may indeed be preferable to legions of scheming revolutionaries in the streets, but that's not an economic argument, it's a political one. (Also one I'm not sure I agree with at this point. Not that I expect anyone to care about my political opinion.)

    Replies: @mal

    Ah, but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place.

    “I increased my bar profit margin by 10% by skipping payoff to the police! Too bad I got shot in the head by a roving street gang the next day.”

    So keep those legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars, I say.

    The primacy of politics vs economics is basically the discussion Mikel and I had the other day. Red beads on an island. Can’t ignore those power verticals which always develop whenever there are more than 1 human around. Even if they cause loss of economic efficiency. Economic efficiency does no good to dead people.

    Anyway, a dollar from a woozy bureaucrat spends just as well as the dollar from anybody else, so bar owners and bartenders don’t complain.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place
     
    Okay, now we're getting more into philosophical space.

    I'll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off. After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.

    Replies: @mal

    , @Mikel
    @mal


    The primacy of politics vs economics is basically the discussion Mikel and I had the other day.
     
    No. Sadly, we were very far from reaching any such point.

    Since you claim that printing unlimited amounts of money is beneficial or even necessary to achieve healthy levels of real production (you go much further away in your claims than even MMT theorists), I asked you to explain why increasing the supply of red pebbles in a primitive island society that used them as a means of exchange would (obviously) not increase the levels of physical production and how both situations are different.

    You claimed that even on that island assigning resources to collect large amounts of pebbles would indeed increase production of real goods and services, which is nonsense, and defended this bizarre idea with some weird assumption about someone killing someone if they didn't use red pebbles, which made no sense.

    So, thinking that on the topic of money and economics (unlike on chemistry, technology and space exploration, where you are very knowledgeable), you are a victim of some sort of magical thinking, I just gave up and left the debate.

    Contrary to what you told TL, there is of course a lot to learn by reading monetary theory books.

    For an introduction I would recommend these two:

    Kenneth Galbraith's "Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went" is a very good source to get aquainted with the basics of what money is, how it evolved and what different theories and monetary experiments have been conducted over history. Well written, humorous at times and relatively easy to read.

    Huerta de Soto's "Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles" is very easy to read and provides a simple but very good understanding of the Austrian vision on money and economic cycles.

    Replies: @mal

  195. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    What A123 said.
     
    What I said to A123.

    Also, inflation is still rather low
     
    It's true it could be worse. OTOH, wait a few more months and it probably will be.

    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical
     
    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries. But this isn't surprising since it couldn't fiat spew until about WWI. At which point, just by coincidence, the currency suddenly started inflating and hasn't stopped since. Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous. You had to debase them while convincing everyone that they weren't really debased. Most traders saw through that and as a result we had things like Gresham's Law.

    We want to guide it higher, 3-4% in the long term, not to zero. It helps with debt burdens etc.
     
    Yes, there was a school of thought that modest and steady inflation served as a kind of stealth slow-motion debt jubilee. Whether this is a good thing or not, I'll let others decide. But it doesn't matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn't like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was. And that is beside the fact that most inflation is created by currency authorities handing fresh currency to the banking cartels (i.e., creditors), which obviously does nothing to help debtors in the first place.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @A123, @mal

    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.

    Yea, but that’s not really a good thing. I would rather live in a modern hyperinflating Zimbabwe than medieval England. Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up. Otherwise, we would just have constant wars over money, which is a rather silly reason for war. Land, population, or resources? Sure. But fighting over a made up medium of exchange is like kindergarten level.

    Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous.

    Yes, and the only way to get more money was to organize a raid on Spanish Treasure Fleets. How many people today even know how to board a galleon properly?

    But it doesn’t matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn’t like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.

    Echoing A123’s sentiment here, this looks at the short end mostly. But at the long end, US Treasury 10 year benchmark is happily trading at 1.5%, and 30 year at around 2%.

    Basically, bond markets are telling us “no inflation for next 30 years”. And no, it’s not all Fed games. Subpar economic growth rather than inflation will be the main issue going forward.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal



    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.
     
    Yea, but that’s not really a good thing. ... Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up
     
    But the money supply did keep up. How? By mining new metal out of the ground. And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth. Not perfect of course, but a far better proxy than the rate of self-restraint among greedy counterfeiting cartels, which is the proxy in fiat world.

    Replies: @mal

  196. @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    People have this bizarre expectation of no inflation at all which is completely ahistorical and is highly undesirable because it means we are in an economic depression.

    So I would say, government is controlling the inflation just fine.
     
    It's actually about whether trust in existing economic institutions can be sustained. If not, even if objective indicators are OK, people will still see lots of things crumbling.

    However, it’s not all bad. Investment decisions are guided by this activity. In the bar example, if people want to spend their government paychecks drinking, it means we need more bars, and construction industry will make appropriate investment. That investment matters.

     

    Investment comes from savings where their real value isn't adequately captured by GDP. Read the Austrians. You can obviously say "money printer go brrrrr", but in fact that is about diluting the existing monetary supply and take a little chunk out of all existing savings & transactions.

    GDP level doesn’t really matter, but GDP growth does because it drives investment. Nobody wants to invest when GDP declines, which in turn becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
    How about the other way around? Common sense says so. GDP is just a number.

    Replies: @mal

    Yea yea yea, savings and the Austrians. That world went away in 2008. For better or worse, but its not possible to bring it back.

    Let’s take our MAGA friend here, A123. Now, we may have different perspectives, but if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that’s kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don’t share the whole “hate China” thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don’t see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.

    So how to do this? How to industrialize America? Free market? Free market only cares that it’s cheap which means Asia. Free market doesn’t care about national security or even reliability five years down the road.

    Market driven interest rates will be higher than what they are currently being managed to. How do you finance \$billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send \$100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such \$100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That’s some very expensive key strokes.

    Which is why I don’t really see the reasoning for the “abolish the Fed” crowd. And savings argument doesn’t fly either – its not like there’s a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It’s all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.

    So the mechanics of real economy, not just financial one, is quite different from Austrians’ description, as far as I can see.

    • Agree: A123, Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
    @mal


    While I don’t share the whole “hate China” thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains.
     
    The requirements for MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement are driven by the needs of America First and American Citizens.

    I do not hate China or the Chinese people. I am not even sure that I hate CCP Elites, but I do understand that they are malicious. A destructive threat to American Citizens. They are not a picnic for heavily abused Chinese Workers either.

    I am willing to say that I hate Iranian Elites who despicably held defenseless American Civilians hostage for 444 Days in open defiance of Civilized Behaviour. The Iranian regime is Openly Satanic and Bigly Evil. However, I do not hate Iranian civilians. If anything, I pity them. They daily experience horrors inflicted by Lucifer's Iranian Elites.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that’s kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don’t share the whole “hate China” thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don’t see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.
     
    Totally agreed, and it's ultimately advantageous for both North America and East Asia to have a complete economic sphere for the same reasons the US & Soviets had ones in the Cold War.

    How do you finance $billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send $100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such $100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That’s some very expensive key strokes.
     
    Market-driven interest rates are meant to reflect differences in time preferences, in Austrians' imagination, and those are supposed to be paid largely to those whose time deposit is loaned under 100% reserves.

    And savings argument doesn’t fly either – its not like there’s a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It’s all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.
     
    It still stands when there's a stash of money around to pay for fixed capital. But you will say the entire funding is lent under the very new monetary regime.
  197. The father of the alleged Islamist terrorist who has killed a United Kingdom member of parliament, is son of former top aide to Somali PM. (Although the house in the photo does not seem quite to be a London palace you would expect from third world politicians).

    https://news.sky.com/story/sir-david-amess-murder-terror-suspect-accused-of-killing-mp-is-son-of-former-top-aide-to-somali-pm-12436198

    This example, could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people. Although I cannot find the link now, I remember reading a study about suicide bombers in Israel, that the analysis of the data indicated they on average originated from comparatively more elite local families than expected from random sample in the general population. (I also recall Breivik, although from a non-rich family, was son of a diplomat – so his father could have been considered as having a somewhat prestigious government job, at least in non-pecuniary ways).

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    (Although the house in the photo does not seem quite to be a London palace
     
    Houses on his street are only UK £2,000000 ($3 million), which is not a fashionable area of London prices. https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/17/mp-murder-suspect-lives-on-street-with-2000000-houses-and-celeb-neighbours-15436194/

    Presumably with such finances, this family are only on the low level of Somalian politicians.

    , @iffen
    @Dmitry

    , could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people.

    Well D., you are smart. Just keep looking and thinking and I'm sure that you will find a way to blame it on the peons.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  198. @Dmitry
    The father of the alleged Islamist terrorist who has killed a United Kingdom member of parliament, is son of former top aide to Somali PM. (Although the house in the photo does not seem quite to be a London palace you would expect from third world politicians).

    https://news.sky.com/story/sir-david-amess-murder-terror-suspect-accused-of-killing-mp-is-son-of-former-top-aide-to-somali-pm-12436198

    -

    This example, could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people. Although I cannot find the link now, I remember reading a study about suicide bombers in Israel, that the analysis of the data indicated they on average originated from comparatively more elite local families than expected from random sample in the general population. (I also recall Breivik, although from a non-rich family, was son of a diplomat - so his father could have been considered as having a somewhat prestigious government job, at least in non-pecuniary ways).

    Replies: @Dmitry, @iffen

    (Although the house in the photo does not seem quite to be a London palace

    Houses on his street are only UK £2,000000 (\$3 million), which is not a fashionable area of London prices. https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/17/mp-murder-suspect-lives-on-street-with-2000000-houses-and-celeb-neighbours-15436194/

    Presumably with such finances, this family are only on the low level of Somalian politicians.

  199. @mal
    @Yellowface Anon

    Yea yea yea, savings and the Austrians. That world went away in 2008. For better or worse, but its not possible to bring it back.

    Let's take our MAGA friend here, A123. Now, we may have different perspectives, but if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that's kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don't share the whole "hate China" thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don't see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.

    So how to do this? How to industrialize America? Free market? Free market only cares that it's cheap which means Asia. Free market doesn't care about national security or even reliability five years down the road.

    Market driven interest rates will be higher than what they are currently being managed to. How do you finance $billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send $100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such $100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That's some very expensive key strokes.

    Which is why I don't really see the reasoning for the "abolish the Fed" crowd. And savings argument doesn't fly either - its not like there's a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It's all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.

    So the mechanics of real economy, not just financial one, is quite different from Austrians' description, as far as I can see.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    While I don’t share the whole “hate China” thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains.

    The requirements for MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement are driven by the needs of America First and American Citizens.

    I do not hate China or the Chinese people. I am not even sure that I hate CCP Elites, but I do understand that they are malicious. A destructive threat to American Citizens. They are not a picnic for heavily abused Chinese Workers either.

    I am willing to say that I hate Iranian Elites who despicably held defenseless American Civilians hostage for 444 Days in open defiance of Civilized Behaviour. The Iranian regime is Openly Satanic and Bigly Evil. However, I do not hate Iranian civilians. If anything, I pity them. They daily experience horrors inflicted by Lucifer’s Iranian Elites.

    PEACE 😇

  200. @Dmitry
    The father of the alleged Islamist terrorist who has killed a United Kingdom member of parliament, is son of former top aide to Somali PM. (Although the house in the photo does not seem quite to be a London palace you would expect from third world politicians).

    https://news.sky.com/story/sir-david-amess-murder-terror-suspect-accused-of-killing-mp-is-son-of-former-top-aide-to-somali-pm-12436198

    -

    This example, could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people. Although I cannot find the link now, I remember reading a study about suicide bombers in Israel, that the analysis of the data indicated they on average originated from comparatively more elite local families than expected from random sample in the general population. (I also recall Breivik, although from a non-rich family, was son of a diplomat - so his father could have been considered as having a somewhat prestigious government job, at least in non-pecuniary ways).

    Replies: @Dmitry, @iffen

    , could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people.

    Well D., you are smart. Just keep looking and thinking and I’m sure that you will find a way to blame it on the peons.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @iffen

    I was going to say the father of Bin Laden as another example, but there was interference of arithmetic where you have 58 children and you might be more surprised if one of them didn't become "eminent" in some way. And the effects of nepotism of a son using father's money for their "startup".

  201. @sudden death
    @A123

    Trusted or not, those are sourced data numbers instead of just empty declarations without providing any ;)

    Replies: @A123, @A123

    As you lack trust in me here is an objective source:

    https://fee.org/articles/vaccination-rates-not-linked-to-lower-covid-rates-epidemiology-paper-finds/

    Trusting anything Fake Stream Media [FSM] outlets, like NBC, provide is inherently very risky. The fascist Lügenpresse in the U.S. Exists for a single purpose — SJW MegaCorporation deception.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @A123

    It is not exactly news, but yes, sadly, all the vaccines we have got now are non sterilizing, i.e. leaky ones, which do not prevent transmision in full, but from your own linked article:


    There is widespread agreement among scientists that COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective at reducing the risk of developing severe COVID symptoms, which can result in hospitalization and death.
     
    As we were talking about voter population segment expiry, spread itself matters way less much now, than vax rates, especially with much more infectious and virulent Delta strain being dominant now, e.g. spread remains relatively high even in high vaxed UK, but deaths are subsided compared with previous waves prior mass vax campaign, meanwhile in low vaxed RF both spread&deaths are beating previous records.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Yellowface Anon

  202. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    But if they give it to someone who doesn’t pay it back, then they’re effed. If the fiat government pisses away its money, though, it can just print more.
     
    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out. Also, banks create money. So it's pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement (there are interbank loans and Federal Reserve discount window etc). You have to screw up really bad.

    It would be like fish in the ocean running out of water. And not even that, the fish doesn't just swim in the water, it has been provided with its own water making machine and has the license to print water. You literally have to be dumber than a brick to run out of water. No offense to bricks. But it does happen occasionally, unfortunately.

    Do we want the goal to be productive investment or infinite cronyism? Hmm.
     
    Private sector doesn't always fund productive investment (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment), and government doesn't always waste money. Government and private sector generally work better together when they complement each other.


    The answer is easy for me, but for anyone who is a government crony, they might answer differently. But I agree that it is fundamental, so fundamental that it could form the basis of a civil war.
     
    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication. This will be the fastest civil war in history.

    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?
     
    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCMDO

    The state already is a big part of the equation. Indeed, that’s arguably why inflation is such a problem.
     
    For who? The only time we didn't have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don't want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation. Inflation is like body temperature - nobody wants to be at room temperature. Sure, too high is problematic, it means your body/economy is struggling with something, but generally, too high is better than too low.

    Maybe they thought they would, but they didn’t. They’re still in debt, and begging for more. Their creditors are smart enough to demand repayment in real currency, not Zimbabwe dollars.
     
    What's a "real currency"? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly. They are traded differently, but not because they are fundamentally different. US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/government-debt-to-gdp

    They were also in a decade long economic depression.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/zimbabwe/gdp-growth-annual

    Post hyperinflation, they returned to growth, and slashed their debt to GDP to like 70%. Their debt to GDP became lower than US lol. It was the right move. And sure, they want more money (who doesn't), and they will have to pay something after restructuring. But it won't be 250% of their entire GDP.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out.

    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive

    Also, banks create money.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.

    Fake (“central”) banks create money just by printing (i.e., counterfeiting) it. Unfortunately, the opportunities for this are infinite, or limited only by currency collapse.

    So it’s pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement…

    …if you are a central (fake) bank. If you are a real bank that actually needs balanced books, it is all too easy to go broke.

    You have to screw up really bad.

    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.

    Private sector doesn’t always fund productive investment

    True, but it does so more than the governemtn does, which is the main alternative.

    (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment)

    Lately, in the US, this is true. But that is an effect of so much of the banking sector being nothing more than a corrupt cartel snouting in the central bank’s seigniorage (i.e., counterfeiting) process rather than doing anything actually productive.

    and government doesn’t always waste money.

    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today’s government or the government of fifty years ago? Today’s government or the government of twenty years hence?

    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.

    Again, this is a list of defects, not of virtues.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication.

    If there is a civil war, expect the diabetes people to be mostly in government uniforms.

    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?

    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.

    Yes, that was the point. But I don’t know how well defined the schedule is.

    The only time we didn’t have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don’t want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation.

    I’m not a zero-inflation zealot. I merely say lower inflation is better than higher inflation. From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth. It may not have been a libertarian paradise, but it was good enough for government work. That worked for three decades; I see no reason we can’t do it for another three. Well there is one reason: the government prefers to play money printer games.

    Inflation is like body temperature – nobody wants to be at room temperature.

    I’d say a better metaphor is that inflation is like blood volume — if it grows faster than your body you’re gonna die of hypertension.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you’re doing it wrong.

    What’s a “real currency”? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly.

    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is “more” in a “per asset” sense.)

    US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.

    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is … amusing.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.

    Yeah … I’ve always been skeptical of the utility of the debt-to-GDP yardstick, but I didn’t get any more into it because we already had enough to discuss in these overlong comments.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive
     
    Yeah, but it's not our decision to make. It's up to the markets. And right now markets love low interest rates and government management practices (else 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%). So the "free markets" have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give "free markets" everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.
     
    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven't. And our money supply rose up exactly as warranted.

    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.
     
    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all "developed" economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to "developed" countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today’s government or the government of fifty years ago? Today’s government or the government of twenty years hence?
     
    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money, otherwise, 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%. Markets have vastly more confidence in government than private sector. And no, its not all Fed games, not at long end of the curve. So we must give the markets what they crave most - long term government debt. Supply must meet demand, its only market economics.

    From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth.
     
    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that - Unions and EPA in the 70's started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90's and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn't matter what "free market" wants.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you’re doing it wrong.
     
    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can't have big wars doing it for us because it's politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.

    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is “more” in a “per asset” sense.)
     
    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.

    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is … amusing.
     
    Exactly, and that is why I will miss this blog. :).

    Just like I told Mikel before, I agree with your logic but disagree with assumptions.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can't separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn't. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren't, and they must unite for the national good.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Almost Missouri

  203. In Kazan where QR codes of vaccinated people were required (as a kind of half-effort anti-epidemic policy) for visiting the shopping centre, allegedly very few people are visiting the shopping centres. (https://realnoevremya.ru/news/228662-v-kazani-posle-vvedeniya-qr-kodov-opusteli-torgovye-centry)

    I won’t waste time to translate, but YouTube comments in these videos are too much..

    • Replies: @A123
    @Dmitry


    In Kazan where QR codes of vaccinated people were required (as a kind of half-effort anti-epidemic policy) for visiting the shopping centre, allegedly very few people are visiting the shopping centres.
     
    In any place where open market / street shopping is normal the idea of a mandate is inherently non-viable.

    In NYC you can buy a TV from a bodega. Anything too large for bodega is Amazon eligible. Groceries, Whole Foods = Amazon = Delivery.

    It us of course *inconceivable* that Amazob/WaPo lobbyists are involved in Manda-vaxx policy. A private company with the influence of Standard Oil. Unheard of!

    Standard Oil never existed, except it did......

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Dmitry

  204. @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    Germany [i.e., ECB], Switzerland, most of East Asia), so even if they dislike inflation, they are obliged to tag along with it lest their currencies rise too much and their export earnings suffer
     
    Let me repeat/rephrase one of my prior quotes:

    All trade is managed trade. If a nation does not manage trade when everyone else does... That nation is a guaranteed looser.
    ___

    Germany is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) and created negative rates, dragging everyone else along.

    China is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) via various mechanisms "A" vs. "B" shares, investment restrictions, etc.

    If the U.S. refused to follow the China/Germany manipulation lead... Americans would be guaranteed losers. Blaming the Fed does not make sense. They are doing what they can in a world trade & currency system intentionally broken by others.
    ___

    Any long term solution requires MAGA Reindustrialization and MAGA CCP Disengagement. Reducing interaction with manipulative Germany and World #1 manipulator The CCP, is the minimum starting point towards resolving the USD currency mess.

    Once the influence of malicious currency manipulators is diminished. A high tariff will provides the resources necessary to begin unwinding the USD currency situation in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden average Americans.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Germany is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) and created negative rates, dragging everyone else along.

    If the US is the 800-pound gorilla, then Germany is a one hundred pound monkey, as measured by national wealth. Plus the US has thousands of troops on German soil, and numerous other influence levers Germany is powerless to resist. Germany can’t drag the US anywhere it isn’t already willing to go.

    China is a currency manipulator (to drive exports) via various mechanisms “A” vs. “B” shares, investment restrictions, etc.

    If by “currency manipulator” you mean “pegged their currency to US currency” then yes, I suppose they are. But again, pegging their currency to the dollar means that they are eating a big chunk of US inflation. China’s bearing a cost too. Sadly, the benefit of this arrangement accrues mostly to the Fed and its crony cartel rather than to the average American.

    A high tariff will provides the resources necessary to begin unwinding the USD currency situation in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden average Americans.

    I think it’s worth a try. Unfortunately, this seems to be the opposite of the current administration’s approach.

  205. @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.
     
    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts (1)

    Benchmark Replacement Waterfall
    Step 1: Forward-Looking Term SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 2: Daily Simple Average SOFR and Adjustment
    Step 3: Lender Selected Rate and Adjustment

    As of the date of this writing, the Forward-Looking Term SOFR rate does not yet exist and will need to be derived from transactions in the SOFR derivatives market. The indexes will be published by a third-party administrator under an approved/endorsed calculation methodology. However, on March 23, 2021, the ARRC stated they will not be able to recommend forward-looking SOFR Term indexes by mid-2021. Additionally, the ARRC also stated they cannot guarantee that it will be able to recommend an administrator that can produce robust Term index by the end of 2021.
     

    Commitment to forward looking SOFR has been sparse. Almost everything is headed towards the "Step 2" daily benchmark that has no forward looking capability.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.agloan.com/libor-transition/

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts

    Yes, Libor is headed to obsolescence, which is why I said “or some other index”. The point is that whatever is the specific mechanism last year, this year, or next year, creditors have gotten adept at insulating themselves from soft defaults via inflation, so the claimed “benefit” of slo-mo debt jubilees via inflation is overstated.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Almost Missouri


    creditors have gotten adept at insulating themselves from soft defaults via inflation, so the claimed “benefit” of slo-mo debt jubilees via inflation is overstated.
     
    As someone with ties to Finance.... Sorry... You vastly overestimate average corporate finance capabilities. Everyone was counting on :
    -- ARRC delivering by year end
    -- A reprieve from the year end deadline

    The finance equivalent of a stampede is very bland and therefore difficult for outsiders to detect. The official statement:

    ARRC also stated they cannot guarantee that it will be able to recommend an administrator that can produce robust Term index by the end of 2021.
     
    Sounds innocuous. It is not.

    The only good news is that they threw in the towel ~9 Months before D-Day. Options are not good, but these who had resources and chose wisely have made best efforts at hedging with a poor selection of tools.

    The bad news is that firms with insufficient resources (or unwise leadership) will begin dying after both:
    -- January, and
    -- First unpredictable, significant move

    The problems are within 2nd and 3rd tier firms, so there are no general press stories. Bookmark this post so it is available about 2022-MAR-01. That will be the first available data point for scoring this concern (unless forward looking LIBOR is extended or credible 180-day SOFR launches).

    PEACE 😇
  206. @Dmitry
    In Kazan where QR codes of vaccinated people were required (as a kind of half-effort anti-epidemic policy) for visiting the shopping centre, allegedly very few people are visiting the shopping centres. (https://realnoevremya.ru/news/228662-v-kazani-posle-vvedeniya-qr-kodov-opusteli-torgovye-centry)

    I won't waste time to translate, but YouTube comments in these videos are too much..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki0kBjq4vao

    Replies: @A123

    In Kazan where QR codes of vaccinated people were required (as a kind of half-effort anti-epidemic policy) for visiting the shopping centre, allegedly very few people are visiting the shopping centres.

    In any place where open market / street shopping is normal the idea of a mandate is inherently non-viable.

    In NYC you can buy a TV from a bodega. Anything too large for bodega is Amazon eligible. Groceries, Whole Foods = Amazon = Delivery.

    It us of course *inconceivable* that Amazob/WaPo lobbyists are involved in Manda-vaxx policy. A private company with the influence of Standard Oil. Unheard of!

    Standard Oil never existed, except it did……

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @A123

    I'm still not vaccinated so I'd have to avoid Kazan's shopping centres just like that the Kazan people. Empathizing with this. At least where I live there is Amazon Prime. But the YouTube comments in this video were too "powerful", I hesitate even to translate them into international circulation.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

  207. @iffen
    @Dmitry

    , could remind of the situation in some Arab regions where Islamic terrorists are emerging from more prestigious families that average people.

    Well D., you are smart. Just keep looking and thinking and I'm sure that you will find a way to blame it on the peons.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I was going to say the father of Bin Laden as another example, but there was interference of arithmetic where you have 58 children and you might be more surprised if one of them didn’t become “eminent” in some way. And the effects of nepotism of a son using father’s money for their “startup”.

  208. @A123
    @Dmitry


    In Kazan where QR codes of vaccinated people were required (as a kind of half-effort anti-epidemic policy) for visiting the shopping centre, allegedly very few people are visiting the shopping centres.
     
    In any place where open market / street shopping is normal the idea of a mandate is inherently non-viable.

    In NYC you can buy a TV from a bodega. Anything too large for bodega is Amazon eligible. Groceries, Whole Foods = Amazon = Delivery.

    It us of course *inconceivable* that Amazob/WaPo lobbyists are involved in Manda-vaxx policy. A private company with the influence of Standard Oil. Unheard of!

    Standard Oil never existed, except it did......

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I’m still not vaccinated so I’d have to avoid Kazan’s shopping centres just like that the Kazan people. Empathizing with this. At least where I live there is Amazon Prime. But the YouTube comments in this video were too “powerful”, I hesitate even to translate them into international circulation.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Dmitry

    It is still better than San Francisco.

    With neither shoppers nor staff... Noble ethnic wealth redistribution would have taken hold. Ski mask wearing Robin Hoods would have claimed goods as reparations for the sins of slavery. Such wealth liberation would (theoretically) be shared with ethnic groups that arrived in the country after slavery ended.

    Observe the noble heroics against white rule below...

    PEACE 😇

    https://youtu.be/2jrnhaLzCqA

    Replies: @Truth

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Dmitry

    You can pretty much see it isn't as much a "anti-pandemic" policy as an economic one that is redistributing consumption & markets from brick-and-mortar businesses to digital ones that can be easily centralized in distribution under Amazon, Taobao, etc. 4IR!

    Replies: @Dmitry

  209. @Thomm
    It is unfortunate to see AK go. He was more committed to free speech than others.

    But this is also a good place to store the most up-to-date WN hall of shame.

    Remember that politics is a circle. What is falsely called ‘far right’ has a lot of gay socialists in it.

    It is relevant to this thread that what passes for WN today is being rapidly taken over by homosexuals. White Trashionalism is about 40% gay, and women like Rosie and Alden say it is a much higher percentage than that.

    This is why virtually no women are found in WN. 55% of white women voted for Trump, but zero are found in WN (aside from the aforementioned septugenarians).

    To keep a running roster, the full list of TUR WN commenters who have said they think that them, as males, having sex with a black woman is worse than having sex with a white man, is below :

    GeneralRimmer
    JohnnySmoggins
    utu
    AndrewR
    RegCaesar
    Svigor
    Mike Tre (aka MikeatMikedotMike)
    Tor597
    BenKenobi
    neutral
    iffen
    William Badwhite
    Pericles
    Lurker
    Cowtown Rebel
    Trinity
    JMcG
    kihowi


    If you doubt this, ask them yourself and see what they do.

    The next round of questioning posed to these WNs will be :

    1) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a mulatto woman?" (This is to see what percentage of black admixture is their threshold, since they already said a black {even an 80% black average African American) is worse than a white man.)

    Eventually, we will do a Quatroon version of the question as well.

    2) "In your view, would it be worse to have sex with a white man or a Jewish woman?" (This is because some of the Jew-hate here is so over-the-top, and the claims made are often genetic, that this question may yield some revealing responses).

    Replies: @Yevardian, @AKAHorace, @Pericles, @Barbarossa, @Truth, @Tor597

    lol

    This is the most Indian comment ever.

    • Agree: Yevardian
    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Tor597

    No it isn't. That pathetic smoke and mirrors attempt to change the subject away from your admitted homosexuality isn't going to work. See Comment #18 where AK himself makes fun of 70-IQ wiggers like you.

    Now, back to the topic.

    You, Tor597, have openly said that relative to your preferences having sex with a black woman, even a pretty one, is worse than having sex with a white man.

    The question now is whether a pretty mulatto like Halle Berry is preferable to you over a white man. I suspect you will not be able to say that you prefer Halle Berry over a white man, as a sexual partner.


    Now get off my lawn, faggot!

  210. @Almost Missouri
    @A123


    LIBOR is in its final death throes and the replacement is going to be a very short-term rate on most contracts
     
    Yes, Libor is headed to obsolescence, which is why I said "or some other index". The point is that whatever is the specific mechanism last year, this year, or next year, creditors have gotten adept at insulating themselves from soft defaults via inflation, so the claimed "benefit" of slo-mo debt jubilees via inflation is overstated.

    Replies: @A123

    creditors have gotten adept at insulating themselves from soft defaults via inflation, so the claimed “benefit” of slo-mo debt jubilees via inflation is overstated.

    As someone with ties to Finance…. Sorry… You vastly overestimate average corporate finance capabilities. Everyone was counting on :
    — ARRC delivering by year end
    — A reprieve from the year end deadline

    The finance equivalent of a stampede is very bland and therefore difficult for outsiders to detect. The official statement:

    ARRC also stated they cannot guarantee that it will be able to recommend an administrator that can produce robust Term index by the end of 2021.

    Sounds innocuous. It is not.

    The only good news is that they threw in the towel ~9 Months before D-Day. Options are not good, but these who had resources and chose wisely have made best efforts at hedging with a poor selection of tools.

    The bad news is that firms with insufficient resources (or unwise leadership) will begin dying after both:
    — January, and
    — First unpredictable, significant move

    The problems are within 2nd and 3rd tier firms, so there are no general press stories. Bookmark this post so it is available about 2022-MAR-01. That will be the first available data point for scoring this concern (unless forward looking LIBOR is extended or credible 180-day SOFR launches).

    PEACE 😇

  211. @mal
    @Almost Missouri

    Ah, but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place.

    "I increased my bar profit margin by 10% by skipping payoff to the police! Too bad I got shot in the head by a roving street gang the next day."

    So keep those legions of woozy bureaucrats in bars, I say.

    The primacy of politics vs economics is basically the discussion Mikel and I had the other day. Red beads on an island. Can't ignore those power verticals which always develop whenever there are more than 1 human around. Even if they cause loss of economic efficiency. Economic efficiency does no good to dead people.

    Anyway, a dollar from a woozy bureaucrat spends just as well as the dollar from anybody else, so bar owners and bartenders don't complain.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Mikel

    but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place

    Okay, now we’re getting more into philosophical space.

    I’ll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off. After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    I’ll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off.
     
    I agree with that, which is why I'm not a socialist. But unfortunately, powers that be don't see it that way, and they create our reality for us, so it must be taken into account. Any economic theory that doesn't account for men with guns is doomed to failure.

    After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.
     
    I grew up in the Soviet Union, and frankly, I find it weird that people both over rate it and under rate it at the same time. That place was simply boring and stagnant. It wasn't a horror show that the Atlantic Council crowd strives to present, but it wasn't a some kind of hero land that some leftists try to show either.

    The chief Soviet problem was Gorbachev who was an idiot. A well meaning one, but still, a fool. There were many ways to do managed reforms, and he picked the worst one. If anything, it's a cautionary take against being too nice.

    I mean Chinese and Vietnamese are still ruled by Politbureau and North Korea is still standing, and may well end up being Best Korea, with South Korean fertility rate being what it is.

    I wouldn't bet my worldview on Gorbachev.

    Anyway, I think we can both agree that the true role of the state is to get us to a point where we think our economic decisions are not really influenced by the state. :) And I would totally agree with that.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  212. @Tor597
    @Thomm

    lol

    This is the most Indian comment ever.

    Replies: @Thomm

    No it isn’t. That pathetic smoke and mirrors attempt to change the subject away from your admitted homosexuality isn’t going to work. See Comment #18 where AK himself makes fun of 70-IQ wiggers like you.

    Now, back to the topic.

    You, Tor597, have openly said that relative to your preferences having sex with a black woman, even a pretty one, is worse than having sex with a white man.

    The question now is whether a pretty mulatto like Halle Berry is preferable to you over a white man. I suspect you will not be able to say that you prefer Halle Berry over a white man, as a sexual partner.

    Now get off my lawn, faggot!

  213. @Dmitry
    @A123

    I'm still not vaccinated so I'd have to avoid Kazan's shopping centres just like that the Kazan people. Empathizing with this. At least where I live there is Amazon Prime. But the YouTube comments in this video were too "powerful", I hesitate even to translate them into international circulation.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    It is still better than San Francisco.

    With neither shoppers nor staff… Noble ethnic wealth redistribution would have taken hold. Ski mask wearing Robin Hoods would have claimed goods as reparations for the sins of slavery. Such wealth liberation would (theoretically) be shared with ethnic groups that arrived in the country after slavery ended.

    Observe the noble heroics against white rule below…

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Truth
    @A123

    https://worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshhTb1yt37ei5H4KF18


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO23WBji_Z0

  214. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.
     
    Yea, but that's not really a good thing. I would rather live in a modern hyperinflating Zimbabwe than medieval England. Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up. Otherwise, we would just have constant wars over money, which is a rather silly reason for war. Land, population, or resources? Sure. But fighting over a made up medium of exchange is like kindergarten level.

    Indeed, prior to the fiat era, most currencies were stable because they were simply weights of metal and so devaluing them was difficult and arduous.
     
    Yes, and the only way to get more money was to organize a raid on Spanish Treasure Fleets. How many people today even know how to board a galleon properly?

    But it doesn’t matter so much anymore since creditors decided they didn’t like being stealth debt-jubileed and so nowadays most debt interest is tied directly or indirectly to LIBOR, Ameribor, or some other index that front-runs inflation, which means that inflation is no longer the debt ameliorant it once was.
     
    Echoing A123's sentiment here, this looks at the short end mostly. But at the long end, US Treasury 10 year benchmark is happily trading at 1.5%, and 30 year at around 2%.

    Basically, bond markets are telling us "no inflation for next 30 years". And no, it's not all Fed games. Subpar economic growth rather than inflation will be the main issue going forward.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.

    Yea, but that’s not really a good thing. … Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up

    But the money supply did keep up. How? By mining new metal out of the ground. And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth. Not perfect of course, but a far better proxy than the rate of self-restraint among greedy counterfeiting cartels, which is the proxy in fiat world.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    How? By mining new metal out of the ground.
     
    Yea, by Native Indian slaves in Spanish Bolivian mines, and then they died out. And once they died we had to have two world wars to sort out who had to have most gold.

    And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth
     
    .

    LOL yes, but that's not really a good argument, at least not in a way you probably intend.

    You are absolutely right in a sense that medium of exchange throttles your rate of economic growth.

    So what has precisely happened was - some of the smarter overlords were like "WTF is this? Why is my rate of economic growth limited by some dead slaves in Bolivian mines? Can't we just print what we need to accelerate scientific and technological development?"

    And it turned out, that yes, you could. Your economic growth rate was no longer tethered to dead slaves in Bolivian mines. And that's why we live in the world we live in today. Which is a much better world compared to the alternative where we still would need Bolivian slaves to make our medium of exchange.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  215. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    but its impossible to divorce political from economic arguments. Because it is only politics that allows economic arguments to be made in the first place
     
    Okay, now we're getting more into philosophical space.

    I'll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off. After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.

    Replies: @mal

    I’ll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off.

    I agree with that, which is why I’m not a socialist. But unfortunately, powers that be don’t see it that way, and they create our reality for us, so it must be taken into account. Any economic theory that doesn’t account for men with guns is doomed to failure.

    After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.

    I grew up in the Soviet Union, and frankly, I find it weird that people both over rate it and under rate it at the same time. That place was simply boring and stagnant. It wasn’t a horror show that the Atlantic Council crowd strives to present, but it wasn’t a some kind of hero land that some leftists try to show either.

    The chief Soviet problem was Gorbachev who was an idiot. A well meaning one, but still, a fool. There were many ways to do managed reforms, and he picked the worst one. If anything, it’s a cautionary take against being too nice.

    I mean Chinese and Vietnamese are still ruled by Politbureau and North Korea is still standing, and may well end up being Best Korea, with South Korean fertility rate being what it is.

    I wouldn’t bet my worldview on Gorbachev.

    Anyway, I think we can both agree that the true role of the state is to get us to a point where we think our economic decisions are not really influenced by the state. 🙂 And I would totally agree with that.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal

    I said "old Soviet Union" since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So "how it turned out" included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.

    I suppose it still could apply to the later USSR, though my impression is that by then the government had bowed to necessity and there was more of a defacto market orientation, even if insufficient to stave off financial collapse.

    Yes, China and Vietnam are still governed by something we translate as "politburo", but nowadays they both have a much more independent economic sphere, arguably more free and independent than many western countries, so they are no longer a good example of what it is like when everything economic is subsumed in everything political.

    Replies: @mal

  216. @Barbarossa
    @Truth

    -adjusts monocle-
    Look here Old Sport, while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, "dusky races" as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
    Good Lord!

    Replies: @Thomm, @Truth, @Truth

    Well half-point, you did almost answer the question by osmosis. That puts you WAY above your contemporaries.

    Literally, since Thomm has been posting this question, I think ONE dude has given the no-nonsense, no insinuation, normal (to my way of thinking) heterosexual answer.

    I find that quite strange, but maybe it’s just me, I mean, when I was a kid, GAY dudes would have given the normal heterosexual answer.

    Times change.

  217. @A123
    @Dmitry

    It is still better than San Francisco.

    With neither shoppers nor staff... Noble ethnic wealth redistribution would have taken hold. Ski mask wearing Robin Hoods would have claimed goods as reparations for the sins of slavery. Such wealth liberation would (theoretically) be shared with ethnic groups that arrived in the country after slavery ended.

    Observe the noble heroics against white rule below...

    PEACE 😇

    https://youtu.be/2jrnhaLzCqA

    Replies: @Truth

  218. @Almost Missouri
    @mal



    Britain had a remarkably stable currency for centuries.
     
    Yea, but that’s not really a good thing. ... Growing population and technological progress require money supply that can keep up
     
    But the money supply did keep up. How? By mining new metal out of the ground. And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth. Not perfect of course, but a far better proxy than the rate of self-restraint among greedy counterfeiting cartels, which is the proxy in fiat world.

    Replies: @mal

    How? By mining new metal out of the ground.

    Yea, by Native Indian slaves in Spanish Bolivian mines, and then they died out. And once they died we had to have two world wars to sort out who had to have most gold.

    And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth

    .

    LOL yes, but that’s not really a good argument, at least not in a way you probably intend.

    You are absolutely right in a sense that medium of exchange throttles your rate of economic growth.

    So what has precisely happened was – some of the smarter overlords were like “WTF is this? Why is my rate of economic growth limited by some dead slaves in Bolivian mines? Can’t we just print what we need to accelerate scientific and technological development?”

    And it turned out, that yes, you could. Your economic growth rate was no longer tethered to dead slaves in Bolivian mines. And that’s why we live in the world we live in today. Which is a much better world compared to the alternative where we still would need Bolivian slaves to make our medium of exchange.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal



    How? By mining new metal out of the ground.
     
    Yea, by Native Indian slaves in Spanish Bolivian mines, and then they died out.
     
    I was thinking more of the Middle Ages, say 1000-15000 when new metal from European mines was a decent proxy for new economic activity, though I think it still applies fairly well in 1500-1900 too, in spite of the big influx of New World gold from Spanish colonization, which did create some inflation in the classic sense: currency outstripping the economic value it is supposed to represent. But again, this was mild by comparison to the extreme distortions of the fiat era.

    And once they died we had to have two world wars to sort out who had to have most gold.
     
    Now that I know you grew up in the Soviet Union, I understand why you keep casting the world wars as the result of capitalism, lol!

    Why the world wars happened is obviously a big topic we won't get to the bottom of in a few blog comments. The most concise meta-summation I can offer is that there was probably some inevitability to the conflict as different power blocs expanded up against the ceiling of the globe itself, but the conflict needn't have been as awful as it was. In other words, some sort of friction was unavoidable irrespective of whatever financial/economic system various power blocs had.

    (Also, a lot of other stuff happened in the four centuries between New World colonization in 1492 and world war in 1914, so positing Spanish gold -> Verdun and Tannenberg is ... highly abbreviated.)


    And it turned out, that yes, you could. Your economic growth rate was no longer tethered to dead slaves in Bolivian mines.
     
    Retro-monetarism is a peculiar creed for a son of the Soviet Union, lol! But in any case, since inflation followed from the influx of New World metal, a lack of currency could not have been holding back European development. Indeed, since the Iberian landing site of that New World metal became the most economically retarded part of Atlantic Europe in the centuries following the money storm, too much currency would appear to be economically damaging rather than economically liberating.

    And that’s why we live in the world we live in today. Which is a much better world compared to the alternative where we still would need Bolivian slaves to make our medium of exchange.
     
    Bolivian slaves is a red herring. More precious metal comes out the ground annually today than ever did in the time of the Spanish empire. So arguably, the rate of metal mining is still a good proxy for the rate of economic growth. After all, as measured in gold, the price of a meal or a suit of clothes has been fairly steady over the last two or three millennia. As measured in fiat currency, well ... it is to laugh.

    Nevertheless, I'm not even advocating for a return to the gold standard. Just restrained fiating would be good enough! I'm a monetary moderate and pragmatist.

  219. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out.
     
    "important enough" = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive

    Also, banks create money.
     
    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.

    Fake ("central") banks create money just by printing (i.e., counterfeiting) it. Unfortunately, the opportunities for this are infinite, or limited only by currency collapse.

    So it’s pretty hard to go broke with this arrangement...
     
    ...if you are a central (fake) bank. If you are a real bank that actually needs balanced books, it is all too easy to go broke.

    You have to screw up really bad.
     
    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.

    Private sector doesn’t always fund productive investment
     
    True, but it does so more than the governemtn does, which is the main alternative.

    (actually, it generally prefers asset price speculation to real investment)
     
    Lately, in the US, this is true. But that is an effect of so much of the banking sector being nothing more than a corrupt cartel snouting in the central bank's seigniorage (i.e., counterfeiting) process rather than doing anything actually productive.

    and government doesn’t always waste money.
     
    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today's government or the government of fifty years ago? Today's government or the government of twenty years hence?

    Well, government at all levels is the largest employer in the country. Once you account for welfare spend (as well as Social Security and Medicare) and subcontractors (Lockheed Martin, healthcare corporations etc), you are looking at at least 50% of the population who are government cronies in one form or another. And the rest depending on on them for paychecks.
     
    Again, this is a list of defects, not of virtues.

    People can fight the civil war against the government only for as long as Medicare will pay for their diabetes medication.
     
    If there is a civil war, expect the diabetes people to be mostly in government uniforms.


    If you get paid for having debt, why not get an infinite amount of it?
     
    We are getting there, on a quite well defined schedule.
     
    Yes, that was the point. But I don't know how well defined the schedule is.

    The only time we didn’t have inflation was in 2008, and that was really bad. Economic collapse, millions unemployed etc. We really don’t want 0% inflation. Or even 2% inflation.
     
    I'm not a zero-inflation zealot. I merely say lower inflation is better than higher inflation. From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth. It may not have been a libertarian paradise, but it was good enough for government work. That worked for three decades; I see no reason we can't do it for another three. Well there is one reason: the government prefers to play money printer games.

    Inflation is like body temperature – nobody wants to be at room temperature.
     
    I'd say a better metaphor is that inflation is like blood volume — if it grows faster than your body you're gonna die of hypertension.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you're doing it wrong.

    What’s a “real currency”? The US dollar and Zimbabwe dollar are all created similarly.
     
    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is "more" in a "per asset" sense.)

    US dollar is as real a currency as Zimbabwean dollar.
     
    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is ... amusing.

    Zimbabwe debt to GDP was like 240% prior to hyperinflation.
     
    Yeah ... I've always been skeptical of the utility of the debt-to-GDP yardstick, but I didn't get any more into it because we already had enough to discuss in these overlong comments.

    Replies: @mal

    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive

    Yeah, but it’s not our decision to make. It’s up to the markets. And right now markets love low interest rates and government management practices (else 30 year Treasury wouldn’t trade at 2%). So the “free markets” have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give “free markets” everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.

    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven’t. And our money supply rose up exactly as warranted.

    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.

    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a \$billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today’s government or the government of fifty years ago? Today’s government or the government of twenty years hence?

    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money, otherwise, 30 year Treasury wouldn’t trade at 2%. Markets have vastly more confidence in government than private sector. And no, its not all Fed games, not at long end of the curve. So we must give the markets what they crave most – long term government debt. Supply must meet demand, its only market economics.

    From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth.

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that – Unions and EPA in the 70’s started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a \$trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn’t matter what “free market” wants.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you’re doing it wrong.

    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can’t have big wars doing it for us because it’s politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.

    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is “more” in a “per asset” sense.)

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.

    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is … amusing.

    Exactly, and that is why I will miss this blog. :).

    Just like I told Mikel before, I agree with your logic but disagree with assumptions.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can’t separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn’t. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    So the “free markets” have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give “free markets” everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

     

    Been distorted by 50 years of fiat currency printing. Go figure.

    I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven’t.
     
    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them.

    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.
     
    See things structurally - what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that – Unions and EPA in the 70’s started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn’t matter what “free market” wants.
     
    Yep, this is a way better explanation than the regular "monetarist" one.

    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can’t have big wars doing it for us because it’s politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.
     
    We're going to approach the question of how to fundamentally arrange economic or social development very soon.

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them.
     
    You know what, gold coins were too. What matters is in whose control and benefit the tool is configured.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can’t separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn’t. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.
     
    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything

    Replies: @mal

    , @Almost Missouri
    @mal




    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out.
     
    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive
     

    Yeah, but it’s not our decision to make. It’s up to the markets.
     
    It ain't the markets who bail out cronies. It's the Lords of Fiat.


    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.
     
    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well.
     
    If you believe that, try lending infinite money—or even finite money—to the next person you meet. See how much you get back.

    The are many things that can limit opportunities, but a major upspoken one is that there are only a certain number of genuinely productive people. Once you lend them all they can use, then it's just a question of which hole you're going to piss the rest of your money down. Indeed, that there still is money left after all the productive loans have been made is a pretty good indication that too much money was printed.


    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.
     
    I'm assuming you're making a joke here. Otherwise I have to conclude that your proposed remedy for the poster child of hyperinflation is ... more fiat currency.

    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money
     
    This sounds like you are serious. But if you really believe that the private sector handles things worse than the government does, then why not just abolish the private sector and make everything more efficient?

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that
     
    Indeed. Though the high interest rates of the Volker era are still remembered, people seem to forget the serious disruptions that were being caused by the high inflation that preceded and spawned those interest rates. (People also forget that Volker was appointed and began his interest rate jihad under Carter, not Reagan, although Reagan didn't fire him either. Presidents typically eschew unnecessary disruption at the Fed.)

    90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars.
     
    Right. Since genuine economic opportunities are limited, all that excess currency the Fed prints has to go somewhere, and asset prices are it, especially real estate prices. So yet another reason to slow the insane money printing.

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.
     
    If by "they got any use out of it", you mean Mugabe and his cronies, then yes, they certainly did! And they have the Swiss bank accounts to prove it. If you mean ordinary Zimbabweans, then not so much.

    So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.
     
    When ice-cream and dogsh*t unite, you get ... dogsh*t.

    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get ... ______.

    Replies: @mal

  220. @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    while I must admit that my enthusiasm for the female companionship of the, “dusky races” as it were, is rather lacking in enthusiasm, it would be a mistake to presume that I would prefer buggering either Matt Damon, or a plate of raw oysters.
     
    Which is why YOU are not named on that list in Comment #10.

    The individuals on that list I posted have either openly said that they would prefer a white man over a black woman (and in some cases even a mulatto woman), or at least refused to say what you just said. They filibustered for comment after comment, but refused to say that they prefer even the most attractive black woman over the fattest, ugliest white man. Some of them have also said that they don't mind an MtF transgender sexual partner, since the race of the person did not change. Hence, we have discovered something quite revealing about contemporary WNs.

    They can always write what you just did, but refuse to do that. Hence, they aren't quite what you assume them to be.

    I don't add names to that list lightly. They have all either said that they prefer a white man over a black woman, or at least failed to say that even the most attractive black woman is the less-unappealing choice of the two, when asked two or more times. A heterosexual would have no problem saying what you just did.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @schnellandine

    I actually agree with you that any guy who would prefer a white man over a black woman to appease some WN fear of race mixing has their priorities all messed up.
    However, I find it odd that you are so exercised about the whole thing.
    I tend to avoid parts of UNZ which are prominently WN since the topic frequently devolves into stupidification.

    I also kind of assume that there is a fair bit of shit-posting, trolling, and general obfuscation in a decent amount of internet comment sections, besides the fact that a free speech forum like UNZ is likely to attract a certain number of misanthropes, nuts, and degenerates. The fact that there might be people on UNZ who fit your description is not surprising to me, but I don’t attach much significance to it.
    UNZ is sometimes a strange and wonderful gutter of the internet…

    • Replies: @Thomm
    @Barbarossa


    However, I find it odd that you are so exercised about the whole thing.
    I tend to avoid parts of UNZ which are prominently WN since the topic frequently devolves into stupidification.
     
    I am not 'exercised'. My reasons are threefold :

    i) It is a great source of humor, and I have written many funny poems and songs about it. I have made great comedy at their expense (and regarding the fat ones, their expAnse as well).

    ii) I want more of my fellow normal, heterosexual white people to be aware that these degenerates don't have their best interests at heart, and why we need to keep them out of respectable society. They just want a form of intra-white socialism, under the rationale that there are enough productive white people that these moochers can sustainably harvest us.

    iii) This is the frontier of HBD thought. The extremely high variance in white quality is not discussed sufficiently. The white race is actually two races : a near-flawless race (80%), and a 20% wastematter repository where all the unwanted genes go for rapid filtration from the reproducing gene pool. That is why the males of this wastematter subrace become these WN faggots, while the females become the fat bluehaired feminists.

    But point i), the humor, is a key reason. Come to think of it, I haven't posted some of my poems and songs in a while. I should repost them.

  221. @Triteleia Laxa
    @mal

    Your comments on this thread are really good. People should try their best to understand them. The observations on money and the economy are spot on, while noticing that "in the real world" everyone was always in it together in a way, and that there will be no genocide of the less able, is critical to understanding. I particularly like your point that we should be honest about the previous purpose of the big wars and therefore find a way to achieve the same thing, but with far less suffering.

    I always liked libertarian economics. Partly because I have no reason nor desire to take from others, but, just as importantly, because things like the non-aggression principle would assert my own boundaries when I was loathe to do so directly and more generally. My attachment to such definitions of right and wrong weakened as I learned to not always accept other people's burdens.

    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?

    Also thanks.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?

    So sorry, I didn’t mean to ignore you, but its a rather complex subject. You don’t really learn by reading stuff about it. You learn by reading criticism of the stuff you want to learn and then weeding out the fluff.

    So for criticism of the state, I found Hayek rather convincing. And for criticism of financial imperialism as it rules today, your will find no better critic than Vladimir Lenin circa 1900-1910. And for Keynesisan take on things, Mike Hudson is a good resource.

    Once you have good background, go to Zero Hedge. Their doomer takes are worthless, but they do post good research letters from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs and other power players. With good historical grounding, you will be able to see what the overlords want other people to see. This will at least get you started.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yevardian
    @mal


    So for criticism of the state, I found Hayek rather convincing. And for criticism of financial imperialism as it rules today, your will find no better critic than Vladimir Lenin circa 1900-1910. And for Keynesisan take on things, Mike Hudson is a good resource.
     
    Michael Hudson is excellent. Ironically, unlike most economists, he actually worked in the private sector for decades, in contrast to people like Milton Friedman who made their careers on attacking government-involvement in the economy... whilst living on government checks. Michael Hudson's specialty in fact happens to be debt, both as a concept and its history, dating back to the first urban civilisations in Mesopotamia.
    In a similar vein, I would recommend Karl Polanyi, especially for his keystone work "The Great Transformation". I'm not sure if Ron Unz is familiar with Polanyi's work (he does afterall, publish Hudson here), but the coda of the book goes into some fascinating background into the economic pressures that led to WWII (it was written in 1941, iirc). However, it does contradict the "Hitler Did Nothing Wrong" school of thinking (Though without making him a unique demon, either, think A.J.P Taylor), so I don't know if our benevolent overlord would still be interested in reading it, at his current Raches trajectory of political awakening.

    Who else? Saskia Sassen is very good, though unforunately her strong gallows humour isn't carried into her prose, which can be quite dry. She's especially good on European Union related topics.

    Once you have good background, go to Zero Hedge. Their [...]takes are worthless
     
    Should have stopped there. Speaking as somebody who formerly read Zero Hedge for years... at least it's a step up from The Economist, not that this is saying anything much. I mean, every column is anonymously headed by 'Tyler Durden' lol, its not a serious website.
  222. @mal
    @Yellowface Anon

    Yea yea yea, savings and the Austrians. That world went away in 2008. For better or worse, but its not possible to bring it back.

    Let's take our MAGA friend here, A123. Now, we may have different perspectives, but if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that's kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don't share the whole "hate China" thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don't see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.

    So how to do this? How to industrialize America? Free market? Free market only cares that it's cheap which means Asia. Free market doesn't care about national security or even reliability five years down the road.

    Market driven interest rates will be higher than what they are currently being managed to. How do you finance $billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send $100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such $100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That's some very expensive key strokes.

    Which is why I don't really see the reasoning for the "abolish the Fed" crowd. And savings argument doesn't fly either - its not like there's a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It's all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.

    So the mechanics of real economy, not just financial one, is quite different from Austrians' description, as far as I can see.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    if there is one thing that we hopefully will learn from our current adventure is that placing all your supply chain eggs in one Asian basket may not be a smart idea.

    And that’s kinda where MAGA is going with American reindustrialization. While I don’t share the whole “hate China” thing, they do have a point about the need to regionalize our supply chains. I don’t see Asia being reliable going forward, for a variety of reasons.

    Totally agreed, and it’s ultimately advantageous for both North America and East Asia to have a complete economic sphere for the same reasons the US & Soviets had ones in the Cold War.

    How do you finance \$billion dollar factories at high rates if you have to send \$100 million every year to the bank in interest expense? (Say, 10% annual interest). How do you have any hope of being competitive after making such usurous payments? And why? What did bank exactly do for you to justify such \$100 million income? Entered two numbers in a spreadsheet? That’s some very expensive key strokes.

    Market-driven interest rates are meant to reflect differences in time preferences, in Austrians’ imagination, and those are supposed to be paid largely to those whose time deposit is loaned under 100% reserves.

    And savings argument doesn’t fly either – its not like there’s a warehouse of factories just sitting out there, saved from the good times. It’s all built to order. There is no factory unless you order it. Then it gets designed and built.

    It still stands when there’s a stash of money around to pay for fixed capital. But you will say the entire funding is lent under the very new monetary regime.

  223. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    So in other words, most of the world has already been semi-Zimbabwefied in slow motion.
     
    Yep. Always has been. Welcome to the real world :)

    Right. Tautological, but like all tautologies, correct by definition.
     
    Again, absolutely correct. Now you can see why economics is easy when you strip it from bullshit.

    Right, but that’s the same thing I said: the government can create as much money as it wants and give it to whomever it wants, which makes interest rates irrelevant for those receiving government beneficence.
     
    Yep, and same deal applies to private commercial banking sector - they get to create whatever money they want. The only difference is the goals that you want your resources working towards. State, or banker fat cats? Its not a easy answer, but fundamentally, its the only question.

    Where do you think the banking cartels get the money?
     
    They create it when they make loans aka create credit. Money is credit in modern economy.

    Obviously, I don’t disagree, but what is that level and how do you know when you’ve reached it?
     
    I watch credit markets as a hobby, and 100% private debt to GDP is when I start making noises for state intervention. At 300% private sector debt to GDP, the need for state intervention becomes obvious to anybody with IQ above room temperature, and we are going to vastly higher ratios than that. By 2050, 500% private sector debt to GDP ratio will be perfectly normal. And with negative interest rates, you will get paid for having that debt, so payment will not be a problem. But state will have to be a part of the equation. Its inevitable.

    By … printing more money? And giving it to … whom? The banking cartel again? Or the plebs this time to even out who is diluting whom a bit?

     

    Yep. Government has a duty to maintain corporate sales aka aggregate demand so that asset prices don't deviate too much from revenues. This means Universal Basic Income for the poors. Not to benefit the poors, but to maintain asset prices. That's how asset price mechanics work.

    Just to clarify, economically speaking, WWII and the Great Leap Forward were attempts at demand support?
     
    WW2 definitely was. And so was WW1, and all other wars in history. Soldiers are simply Basic Income recipients, and government in wartime provides demand. Which is why war is so popular throughout history, but we really can do better once we are honest about the mechanism.

    That’s an interesting comment. But what did Zimbabwe “smartly get out of” by hyperinflating? Food-wise, the badly run farms did not suddenly increase production when the currency became worthless, rather the reverse.
     
    They got out of insane debt to the IMF and "international investment community". Just like Weimar Germans did. Food farms are an entirely different question. In the real world, you seriously don't want to be a slave forever to "investment community", with infinite debt repayments. Both Zimbabweans and Germans understood that correctly.

    They shouldn’t. Their interest rates are the rates of the general economy. But obviously when the government massively interferes via money printing, it lays waste to the natural economic ecology.

    Welcome to the real world, that's how it has always been. State is always a part of the equation.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri, @Barbarossa

    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.

    Considering that we have to have perpetual growth for the party to continue, it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
    It seems a worthwhile point that the dynamics of the post industrial revolution world are a complete historical anomaly and not guaranteed to continue on a linear progressive track.
    I suppose some of this comes down to how much faith one has in the ability of technological progress to save our bacon. AK would doubtless have high faith, but I am much more skeptical.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @mal
    @Barbarossa


    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.
     
    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn't complain about it too much.

    I mean, how many Irish did the British starve to death less than 200 years ago? Like a million, plus many more millions as refugees?

    But this sort of thing hardly happens anymore, at least in Ireland and other developed nations. Why? because supply chains can feed all the Irish and more.

    In the past, you would see mass famines due to a pandemic. Today, not so much. All because of improvement in supply chain.

    it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
     
    We had major corrections in 2008 and 2020. Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won't stop us from growing. Its like falling off a bike. Sure, unpleasant, but so what? Who cares? You just get back up and keep riding. Major corrections are not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Barbarossa

  224. @Thorfinnsson
    I didn't get the chance to comment in the previous post (The Last Reaction), so I'll post my parting shot here.

    First and foremost, a standing ovation for Anatoly Karlin. I have been reading him for many years (long before he was picked up by Ron), and unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    You could compare and contrast him with some of the other writers here. The other recent retiree, Audacious Epigone, is of course excellent. But I'm not sure that AE ever really improved, and he remained sadly mired in financial doomerist thinking that AK evolved beyond. If you compare to Steve Sailer, well Steve has been more or less saying the same thing for the past twenty years. No disrespect to Steve Sailer of course without whom many of us wouldn't even be here. And admittedly the distinction with Steve may have more to do with age than anything else.

    The content of AK's posts in combination with his wise choice not to moderate comments also led to an unusually excellent community. Wade elsewhere on the Unz Review and you get bombarded by anti-vax morons, low quality WW2 "revisionists", and weirdos like Thomm (who somehow made his way into this thread--guess he got lost searching for "white trashionalist" homo-sexuals to hit on). AK's commenters stand head and shoulders above them and nearly all others on the internet. Probably the worst regular commenters on AK's pieces are A123 and AaronB, who are really not that bad.

    As for me, I do intend to make the transition to Substack and thus you'll be able to keep up with me there. Another commenter, I think Yevardian, alluded to things perhaps having changed for me for the better. That is true. In addition to being sober (more than two years), I am now married and have a daughter. I have also returned to church, taken up strength training, and much else.

    See you all on Substack, though I will retain a presence on the Unz Review as well.

    Replies: @Twinkie, @AP, @sher singh, @BlackFlag

    unusually for public intellectuals not only has the quality of his writing improved but so has his thinking.

    He’s one of the most realistic, i.e. doesn’t let personal leanings cloud his analysis.

  225. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive
     
    Yeah, but it's not our decision to make. It's up to the markets. And right now markets love low interest rates and government management practices (else 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%). So the "free markets" have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give "free markets" everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.
     
    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven't. And our money supply rose up exactly as warranted.

    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.
     
    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all "developed" economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to "developed" countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today’s government or the government of fifty years ago? Today’s government or the government of twenty years hence?
     
    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money, otherwise, 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%. Markets have vastly more confidence in government than private sector. And no, its not all Fed games, not at long end of the curve. So we must give the markets what they crave most - long term government debt. Supply must meet demand, its only market economics.

    From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth.
     
    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that - Unions and EPA in the 70's started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90's and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn't matter what "free market" wants.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you’re doing it wrong.
     
    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can't have big wars doing it for us because it's politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.

    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is “more” in a “per asset” sense.)
     
    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.

    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is … amusing.
     
    Exactly, and that is why I will miss this blog. :).

    Just like I told Mikel before, I agree with your logic but disagree with assumptions.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can't separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn't. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren't, and they must unite for the national good.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Almost Missouri

    So the “free markets” have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give “free markets” everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

    Been distorted by 50 years of fiat currency printing. Go figure.

    I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven’t.

    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them.

    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a \$billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    See things structurally – what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that – Unions and EPA in the 70’s started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a \$trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn’t matter what “free market” wants.

    Yep, this is a way better explanation than the regular “monetarist” one.

    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can’t have big wars doing it for us because it’s politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.

    We’re going to approach the question of how to fundamentally arrange economic or social development very soon.

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them.

    You know what, gold coins were too. What matters is in whose control and benefit the tool is configured.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can’t separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn’t. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.

    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything

    • Replies: @mal
    @Yellowface Anon


    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them
     
    Maybe, but it hasn't been the case historically. For example, current EU gas crisis is not caused by the physical shortage of gas - there's literally an infinite amount of gas out there for the taking and has always been. But they have political considerations that prevent them from using it.

    Same deal with all other resources - there's an infinite amount of energy and materials in the universe. That's a fact. But will the politics allow us to get it? I don't know. Political questions are far from certain.

    See things structurally – what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.
     
    Agree.

    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything
     
    There's a good case for that.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  226. @Dmitry
    @A123

    I'm still not vaccinated so I'd have to avoid Kazan's shopping centres just like that the Kazan people. Empathizing with this. At least where I live there is Amazon Prime. But the YouTube comments in this video were too "powerful", I hesitate even to translate them into international circulation.

    Replies: @A123, @Yellowface Anon

    You can pretty much see it isn’t as much a “anti-pandemic” policy as an economic one that is redistributing consumption & markets from brick-and-mortar businesses to digital ones that can be easily centralized in distribution under Amazon, Taobao, etc. 4IR!

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Yellowface Anon

    These modern shopping centres in Russia are usually owned by people with strong connections, i.e. owners will have connections to local elites, so I doubt there is any top down conspiracy to move people into online shopping.

    I think it's just another half-planned, half-measure.

    Although there is no malevolent conspiracy theory involved, the emphasis on QR codes might be seen as beginning of bad precedent.

    Instead of focusing on sensible policies, clear communication and engineering solutions (like they had in Japan of ventilating buildings) - there has been worship of the QR code, as if scanning something on your phone is a way to manage a pandemic.

    It's worship of a "cool" technology that allows an increase of state capacity to control peoples' movements, but probably little effect on the epidemiological situation. That is, it's easy to see alternative reasons why it might become popular with politicians.

    QR coding for only vaccinated people to enter in Ufa is supposedly resulting in the same underpopulated shopping malls like in Tatarstan.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxEZK7Ac-k0

    Ufa and Kazan are some of the more economically developed, successful cities in Russia, so if QR coding is not being accepted by much of the population there, it's probably not going to be too popular when introduced into other regions in the next weeks.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  227. @Barbarossa
    @mal

    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.

    Considering that we have to have perpetual growth for the party to continue, it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
    It seems a worthwhile point that the dynamics of the post industrial revolution world are a complete historical anomaly and not guaranteed to continue on a linear progressive track.
    I suppose some of this comes down to how much faith one has in the ability of technological progress to save our bacon. AK would doubtless have high faith, but I am much more skeptical.

    Replies: @mal

    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.

    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn’t complain about it too much.

    I mean, how many Irish did the British starve to death less than 200 years ago? Like a million, plus many more millions as refugees?

    But this sort of thing hardly happens anymore, at least in Ireland and other developed nations. Why? because supply chains can feed all the Irish and more.

    In the past, you would see mass famines due to a pandemic. Today, not so much. All because of improvement in supply chain.

    it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.

    We had major corrections in 2008 and 2020. Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won’t stop us from growing. Its like falling off a bike. Sure, unpleasant, but so what? Who cares? You just get back up and keep riding. Major corrections are not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn’t complain about it too much.
     
    It might just be my unease after reading so many conspiracy theories, but this might come into play again, not as a global-scale Irish Famine, but a global-scale Holodomor. Starving people to extract their resources for a new economy, rather than profiteering on a fragile economy reeling from natural disasters. (I need not to comment further on the nature of early Soviet economy)

    Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won’t stop us from growing.
     
    Past performances means nothing. The elites are taking us for a ride and we don't know where they're taking whenever they preach the virtues of the "Great Reset". It's so vacuous and open for tinfoil interpretations, and this usually is an ill omen.

    Brush this post off if you can come up with a more plausible scenario and assess its risks.

    , @Barbarossa
    @mal

    My point is more that in a very complex, centralized world everything works extremely well, until it doesn't. The interconnected and interdependent nature of our modern world mean that once a big enough disruption starts, the effects ripple through the entire structure.

    Most of the disasters of the past, like the Irish famine (the reason my family came to America) were relatively localized in their effects.

    If any significant crippling disruption happens in our modern system it really could conceivably take it all down. The resilience of a very complex system becomes dependent on increasingly refined conditions.

    To me, the lesson of Covid is how small a disruption it takes to set off major instabilities in the global system. These are still playing out with rising inflation and spiraling goods and services shortages, so we haven't seen the full extent yet. I own a business and know other people who do as well and it's incredible how backed up things are right now, with no real end in sight.

  228. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    I’ll just sum up my view this way: to the extent that economic matters can be distinct from political matters, everyone is better off.
     
    I agree with that, which is why I'm not a socialist. But unfortunately, powers that be don't see it that way, and they create our reality for us, so it must be taken into account. Any economic theory that doesn't account for men with guns is doomed to failure.

    After all, if every economic question is also political question, then we are basically back to the old Soviet Union, and we all know how that turned out.
     
    I grew up in the Soviet Union, and frankly, I find it weird that people both over rate it and under rate it at the same time. That place was simply boring and stagnant. It wasn't a horror show that the Atlantic Council crowd strives to present, but it wasn't a some kind of hero land that some leftists try to show either.

    The chief Soviet problem was Gorbachev who was an idiot. A well meaning one, but still, a fool. There were many ways to do managed reforms, and he picked the worst one. If anything, it's a cautionary take against being too nice.

    I mean Chinese and Vietnamese are still ruled by Politbureau and North Korea is still standing, and may well end up being Best Korea, with South Korean fertility rate being what it is.

    I wouldn't bet my worldview on Gorbachev.

    Anyway, I think we can both agree that the true role of the state is to get us to a point where we think our economic decisions are not really influenced by the state. :) And I would totally agree with that.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    I said “old Soviet Union” since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So “how it turned out” included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.

    I suppose it still could apply to the later USSR, though my impression is that by then the government had bowed to necessity and there was more of a defacto market orientation, even if insufficient to stave off financial collapse.

    Yes, China and Vietnam are still governed by something we translate as “politburo”, but nowadays they both have a much more independent economic sphere, arguably more free and independent than many western countries, so they are no longer a good example of what it is like when everything economic is subsumed in everything political.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    I said “old Soviet Union” since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So “how it turned out” included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.
     
    Hmm... in 1920' Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time) and Western corporations were begging to do business there. This makes Soviet Russia vastly more capitalist than any Western nation today. And in the 1930's Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale. Americans may have invented mass production, but Soviets were quick learners. Which is why USSR emerged as military production superpower during 1940's war time. That know how didn't appear by magic.

    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn't want to do business there. Americans were happy with both prices and commissar management.

    I guess what I'm trying to say is that while famines were unfortunate, how exactly to classify Soviet Russia under New Economy Policy and subsequent Stalinist collectivization is more complicated.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  229. @Yellowface Anon
    @mal


    So the “free markets” have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give “free markets” everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

     

    Been distorted by 50 years of fiat currency printing. Go figure.

    I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven’t.
     
    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them.

    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.
     
    See things structurally - what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that – Unions and EPA in the 70’s started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn’t matter what “free market” wants.
     
    Yep, this is a way better explanation than the regular "monetarist" one.

    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can’t have big wars doing it for us because it’s politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.
     
    We're going to approach the question of how to fundamentally arrange economic or social development very soon.

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them.
     
    You know what, gold coins were too. What matters is in whose control and benefit the tool is configured.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can’t separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn’t. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.
     
    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything

    Replies: @mal

    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them

    Maybe, but it hasn’t been the case historically. For example, current EU gas crisis is not caused by the physical shortage of gas – there’s literally an infinite amount of gas out there for the taking and has always been. But they have political considerations that prevent them from using it.

    Same deal with all other resources – there’s an infinite amount of energy and materials in the universe. That’s a fact. But will the politics allow us to get it? I don’t know. Political questions are far from certain.

    See things structurally – what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.

    Agree.

    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything

    There’s a good case for that.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @mal

    There may be practically infinite energy in the universe, but the question is accessibility. A lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked there. You can certainly extract usable energy from tar sands or fracking, but it takes much more energy investment to do so than a barrel of sweet crude.
    The return on investment is much lower.

    This is the same issue with "renewables" like solar and wind. They have a relatively rotten return on investment.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

  230. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    How? By mining new metal out of the ground.
     
    Yea, by Native Indian slaves in Spanish Bolivian mines, and then they died out. And once they died we had to have two world wars to sort out who had to have most gold.

    And the rate of metal mining turned out to be a pretty good proxy for the rate of economic growth
     
    .

    LOL yes, but that's not really a good argument, at least not in a way you probably intend.

    You are absolutely right in a sense that medium of exchange throttles your rate of economic growth.

    So what has precisely happened was - some of the smarter overlords were like "WTF is this? Why is my rate of economic growth limited by some dead slaves in Bolivian mines? Can't we just print what we need to accelerate scientific and technological development?"

    And it turned out, that yes, you could. Your economic growth rate was no longer tethered to dead slaves in Bolivian mines. And that's why we live in the world we live in today. Which is a much better world compared to the alternative where we still would need Bolivian slaves to make our medium of exchange.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    How? By mining new metal out of the ground.

    Yea, by Native Indian slaves in Spanish Bolivian mines, and then they died out.

    I was thinking more of the Middle Ages, say 1000-15000 when new metal from European mines was a decent proxy for new economic activity, though I think it still applies fairly well in 1500-1900 too, in spite of the big influx of New World gold from Spanish colonization, which did create some inflation in the classic sense: currency outstripping the economic value it is supposed to represent. But again, this was mild by comparison to the extreme distortions of the fiat era.

    And once they died we had to have two world wars to sort out who had to have most gold.

    Now that I know you grew up in the Soviet Union, I understand why you keep casting the world wars as the result of capitalism, lol!

    Why the world wars happened is obviously a big topic we won’t get to the bottom of in a few blog comments. The most concise meta-summation I can offer is that there was probably some inevitability to the conflict as different power blocs expanded up against the ceiling of the globe itself, but the conflict needn’t have been as awful as it was. In other words, some sort of friction was unavoidable irrespective of whatever financial/economic system various power blocs had.

    (Also, a lot of other stuff happened in the four centuries between New World colonization in 1492 and world war in 1914, so positing Spanish gold -> Verdun and Tannenberg is … highly abbreviated.)

    And it turned out, that yes, you could. Your economic growth rate was no longer tethered to dead slaves in Bolivian mines.

    Retro-monetarism is a peculiar creed for a son of the Soviet Union, lol! But in any case, since inflation followed from the influx of New World metal, a lack of currency could not have been holding back European development. Indeed, since the Iberian landing site of that New World metal became the most economically retarded part of Atlantic Europe in the centuries following the money storm, too much currency would appear to be economically damaging rather than economically liberating.

    And that’s why we live in the world we live in today. Which is a much better world compared to the alternative where we still would need Bolivian slaves to make our medium of exchange.

    Bolivian slaves is a red herring. More precious metal comes out the ground annually today than ever did in the time of the Spanish empire. So arguably, the rate of metal mining is still a good proxy for the rate of economic growth. After all, as measured in gold, the price of a meal or a suit of clothes has been fairly steady over the last two or three millennia. As measured in fiat currency, well … it is to laugh.

    Nevertheless, I’m not even advocating for a return to the gold standard. Just restrained fiating would be good enough! I’m a monetary moderate and pragmatist.

  231. @mal
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I am not particularly knowledgeable about economics, but your arguments regarding credit markets, how the main decision is who decides what gets prioritised and about private sector debt as a proportion of GDP, all ring true. Where can I read more?
     
    So sorry, I didn't mean to ignore you, but its a rather complex subject. You don't really learn by reading stuff about it. You learn by reading criticism of the stuff you want to learn and then weeding out the fluff.

    So for criticism of the state, I found Hayek rather convincing. And for criticism of financial imperialism as it rules today, your will find no better critic than Vladimir Lenin circa 1900-1910. And for Keynesisan take on things, Mike Hudson is a good resource.

    Once you have good background, go to Zero Hedge. Their doomer takes are worthless, but they do post good research letters from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs and other power players. With good historical grounding, you will be able to see what the overlords want other people to see. This will at least get you started.

    Replies: @Yevardian

    So for criticism of the state, I found Hayek rather convincing. And for criticism of financial imperialism as it rules today, your will find no better critic than Vladimir Lenin circa 1900-1910. And for Keynesisan take on things, Mike Hudson is a good resource.

    Michael Hudson is excellent. Ironically, unlike most economists, he actually worked in the private sector for decades, in contrast to people like Milton Friedman who made their careers on attacking government-involvement in the economy… whilst living on government checks. Michael Hudson’s specialty in fact happens to be debt, both as a concept and its history, dating back to the first urban civilisations in Mesopotamia.
    In a similar vein, I would recommend Karl Polanyi, especially for his keystone work “The Great Transformation”. I’m not sure if Ron Unz is familiar with Polanyi’s work (he does afterall, publish Hudson here), but the coda of the book goes into some fascinating background into the economic pressures that led to WWII (it was written in 1941, iirc). However, it does contradict the “Hitler Did Nothing Wrong” school of thinking (Though without making him a unique demon, either, think A.J.P Taylor), so I don’t know if our benevolent overlord would still be interested in reading it, at his current Raches trajectory of political awakening.

    Who else? Saskia Sassen is very good, though unforunately her strong gallows humour isn’t carried into her prose, which can be quite dry. She’s especially good on European Union related topics.

    Once you have good background, go to Zero Hedge. Their […]takes are worthless

    Should have stopped there. Speaking as somebody who formerly read Zero Hedge for years… at least it’s a step up from The Economist, not that this is saying anything much. I mean, every column is anonymously headed by ‘Tyler Durden’ lol, its not a serious website.

    • Agree: mal
  232. @Almost Missouri
    @mal

    I said "old Soviet Union" since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So "how it turned out" included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.

    I suppose it still could apply to the later USSR, though my impression is that by then the government had bowed to necessity and there was more of a defacto market orientation, even if insufficient to stave off financial collapse.

    Yes, China and Vietnam are still governed by something we translate as "politburo", but nowadays they both have a much more independent economic sphere, arguably more free and independent than many western countries, so they are no longer a good example of what it is like when everything economic is subsumed in everything political.

    Replies: @mal

    I said “old Soviet Union” since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So “how it turned out” included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.

    Hmm… in 1920′ Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time) and Western corporations were begging to do business there. This makes Soviet Russia vastly more capitalist than any Western nation today. And in the 1930’s Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale. Americans may have invented mass production, but Soviets were quick learners. Which is why USSR emerged as military production superpower during 1940’s war time. That know how didn’t appear by magic.

    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn’t want to do business there. Americans were happy with both prices and commissar management.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that while famines were unfortunate, how exactly to classify Soviet Russia under New Economy Policy and subsequent Stalinist collectivization is more complicated.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    in 1920′ Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time)
     
    Chervonets long predated the Soviets. But in Soviet times actual gold chervonets became scarce (except for paying foreign creditors). Most citizens dealt with credit tickets, sovznak, and other inflative scrip junk. Banks were "nationalized" (i.e., destroyed), so of course Soviets sought foreign sources for credit when they weren't issuing their own fake fiat money. Fortunately, foreign money lenders will lend to anyone they think will pay them back, and governments who will mass murder for the sake of a few wagons of grain seem like a reasonable credit risk.

    Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale.
     
    When you're presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress. Communist China too managed some industrialization ... while starving millions.

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.


    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn’t want to do business there.
     
    Americans want to do business everywhere all the time, so that is of no special significance. Very few American businesses actually end up earning much in foreign markets, though. I don't think any major American industrial firm ever earned a significant part of its profits in the USSR.

    ...while famines were unfortunate...
     
    "Your sacrifice for the revolution has been duly noted comrade, and—actually, scratch that, comrade, we're writing you out of history." Sorry, can't muster a "lol" for this one.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @mal

  233. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive
     
    Yeah, but it's not our decision to make. It's up to the markets. And right now markets love low interest rates and government management practices (else 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%). So the "free markets" have decided that low interest rates are the way to go, and government should have all the fiscal room it needs. So we must give "free markets" everything they they ask for. Its only fair.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.
     
    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well. Though granted, this is a hard statement, there is a chance it could be wrong. But in general, infinite money supply is required to meet infinite opportunities. Could opportunities be finite? Maybe, but so far they haven't. And our money supply rose up exactly as warranted.

    As a central bank, yes. But Zimbabwe showed us the way.
     
    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all "developed" economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a $billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to "developed" countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    Also can be true, but who is more likely not to waste money: the government or private industry? Today’s government or the government of fifty years ago? Today’s government or the government of twenty years hence?
     
    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money, otherwise, 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%. Markets have vastly more confidence in government than private sector. And no, its not all Fed games, not at long end of the curve. So we must give the markets what they crave most - long term government debt. Supply must meet demand, its only market economics.

    From the eighties to the aughties we had low inflation and moderate growth.
     
    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that - Unions and EPA in the 70's started the process, but Reagan/Volcker dealt the death blow that MAGA types are desperately trying to reverse now), and 90's and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a $trillion dollars. We seriously should not base an economy on house price appreciation, it doesn't matter what "free market" wants.

    But this is all a little beside the point. Inflation is more an effect than a cause. If you are running your economy to achieve a certain inflation number, you’re doing it wrong.
     
    Yeah, but if you micromanage the economy, you get accused of being a socialist :). Bottom line is, somebody has to manage it, or nothing ever will get done. And we can't have big wars doing it for us because it's politically incorrect. So yes, inflation targeting is a weak tool (with a good world war, I can achieve in a week what inflation targeting can achieve in a decade), but we all must be civilized now, and historically ordinary tools are out of the question.

    True. And Zimbabwe did more creating than the Fed did (so far), and we see the result: the Zimbabwe dollar effectively ceased to exist. (Obviously, this is “more” in a “per asset” sense.)
     
    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.

    Uh oh.

    Incidentally, there seem to be quite a few things where we agree on the facts but draw opposite implications. The effect is … amusing.
     
    Exactly, and that is why I will miss this blog. :).

    Just like I told Mikel before, I agree with your logic but disagree with assumptions.

    You are absolutely correct in your economic estimates as long as you exclude politics from them. But in real world, it is impossible to exclude politics from economics because politics dictate economics, and both politics and economics are fundamentally all about human behavior. So you can't separate them. Only humans care about economics or politics. The rest of the vast universe doesn't. So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren't, and they must unite for the national good.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Almost Missouri

    If they are important enough, they will get bailed out.

    “important enough” = crony enough

    crony ≠ productive

    Yeah, but it’s not our decision to make. It’s up to the markets.

    It ain’t the markets who bail out cronies. It’s the Lords of Fiat.

    As already discussed, real banks create money by making productive loans, the opportunities for which are finite.

    Not sure about that, I think the opportunities are infinite as well.

    If you believe that, try lending infinite money—or even finite money—to the next person you meet. See how much you get back.

    The are many things that can limit opportunities, but a major upspoken one is that there are only a certain number of genuinely productive people. Once you lend them all they can use, then it’s just a question of which hole you’re going to piss the rest of your money down. Indeed, that there still is money left after all the productive loans have been made is a pretty good indication that too much money was printed.

    All Zimbabwe needs is a swap line at the Federal Reserve, like all “developed” economies have. Zimbabwe needs like a \$billion a year, which is what Federal Reserve provides to “developed” countries during a lunch hour LOL.

    I’m assuming you’re making a joke here. Otherwise I have to conclude that your proposed remedy for the poster child of hyperinflation is … more fiat currency.

    Clearly, the private sector is more likely to waste the money

    This sounds like you are serious. But if you really believe that the private sector handles things worse than the government does, then why not just abolish the private sector and make everything more efficient?

    Reagan/Volcker destroyed American industry with high interest rates (its more complicated than that

    Indeed. Though the high interest rates of the Volker era are still remembered, people seem to forget the serious disruptions that were being caused by the high inflation that preceded and spawned those interest rates. (People also forget that Volker was appointed and began his interest rate jihad under Carter, not Reagan, although Reagan didn’t fire him either. Presidents typically eschew unnecessary disruption at the Fed.)

    90’s and the aughties were all about real estate based neoliberalism which is not sustainable unless you want a house to cost a \$trillion dollars.

    Right. Since genuine economic opportunities are limited, all that excess currency the Fed prints has to go somewhere, and asset prices are it, especially real estate prices. So yet another reason to slow the insane money printing.

    Zimbabwe dollar was never real. And neither is US dollar or Russian ruble or Euro or any other fiat currency. Those are just tools. If they got any use out of it while it was operational, good on them. And I think they did.

    If by “they got any use out of it”, you mean Mugabe and his cronies, then yes, they certainly did! And they have the Swiss bank accounts to prove it. If you mean ordinary Zimbabweans, then not so much.

    So they must come together, and both libertarians and socialists just fail to see the need for this union, they think they are special. But they aren’t, and they must unite for the national good.

    When ice-cream and dogsh*t unite, you get … dogsh*t.

    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get … ______.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    It ain’t the markets who bail out cronies. It’s the Lords of Fiat.
     
    Lords of Fiat are still market participants though. Can't ignore them in the real world.

    If you believe that, try lending infinite money—or even finite money—to the next person you meet. See how much you get back.
     
    If you look at my favorite plot - Total Credit Outstanding, you will see that that's exactly what we do. We are lending on a curve with a very predictable shape that's sloping to infinity. By design, money is never meant to be paid back. There was only one exception to that rule, in 2008, and it won't be allowed to happen again.

    I’m assuming you’re making a joke here. Otherwise I have to conclude that your proposed remedy for the poster child of hyperinflation is … more fiat currency.
     
    Japan, and Germany, and even Mexico have swap lines with Federal Reserve. Zimbabwe has less debt than US or Japan and Federal Reserve could float them a $billion and not even notice. It wouldn't be unusual. Fed supports other countries when it feels like it. It pumped like quarter $trillion into Japan last year in a swap agreement. Backing Zimbabwe would be vastly cheaper.

    This sounds like you are serious. But if you really believe that the private sector handles things worse than the government does, then why not just abolish the private sector and make everything more efficient?
     
    Why are you asking me this? Its the market who decided this, not me. But market clearly trusts government more than private sector. Or 30 year Treasury wouldn't trade at 2%, below private sector rate. We probably won't completely abolish private sector, but the markets have spoken and they want to give government their money.


    So yet another reason to slow the insane money printing.
     
    We can't, because we don't want another Great Depression.

    If by “they got any use out of it”, you mean Mugabe and his cronies, then yes, they certainly did!
     
    Sure, and they are important participants in economy of Zimbabwe. Anyway, making endless payments on 250% debt to GDP ratio would destroy ordinary Zimbabweans, they would be slaves forever. At least hyperinflation reduced the debt load to like 70%, something more manageable.


    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get …
     
    Modern economy. State is not going away no matter how much people wish for it. Likewise, full on nationalization is not desirable either. So there will be a happy medium in there somewhere.

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow, @Almost Missouri

  234. @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    I said “old Soviet Union” since I was thinking of the USSR of the 1920s and 1930s, when the more extreme forms of non-economic management of economic matters occurred: the abolition of prices, enterprise management by will (or whim) of commissars rather than supply and demand, etc. So “how it turned out” included things like mass famine, which I think is pretty hard to overrate.
     
    Hmm... in 1920' Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time) and Western corporations were begging to do business there. This makes Soviet Russia vastly more capitalist than any Western nation today. And in the 1930's Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale. Americans may have invented mass production, but Soviets were quick learners. Which is why USSR emerged as military production superpower during 1940's war time. That know how didn't appear by magic.

    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn't want to do business there. Americans were happy with both prices and commissar management.

    I guess what I'm trying to say is that while famines were unfortunate, how exactly to classify Soviet Russia under New Economy Policy and subsequent Stalinist collectivization is more complicated.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    in 1920′ Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time)

    Chervonets long predated the Soviets. But in Soviet times actual gold chervonets became scarce (except for paying foreign creditors). Most citizens dealt with credit tickets, sovznak, and other inflative scrip junk. Banks were “nationalized” (i.e., destroyed), so of course Soviets sought foreign sources for credit when they weren’t issuing their own fake fiat money. Fortunately, foreign money lenders will lend to anyone they think will pay them back, and governments who will mass murder for the sake of a few wagons of grain seem like a reasonable credit risk.

    Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale.

    When you’re presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress. Communist China too managed some industrialization … while starving millions.

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.

    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn’t want to do business there.

    Americans want to do business everywhere all the time, so that is of no special significance. Very few American businesses actually end up earning much in foreign markets, though. I don’t think any major American industrial firm ever earned a significant part of its profits in the USSR.

    …while famines were unfortunate…

    “Your sacrifice for the revolution has been duly noted comrade, and—actually, scratch that, comrade, we’re writing you out of history.” Sorry, can’t muster a “lol” for this one.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Almost Missouri


    The most concise meta-summation I can offer is that there was probably some inevitability to the conflict as different power blocs expanded up against the ceiling of the globe itself, but the conflict needn’t have been as awful as it was. In other words, some sort of friction was unavoidable irrespective of whatever financial/economic system various power blocs had.
     
    They were both a contest of power and ideologies. WWI eliminated classical liberalism & monarchial rule; WWII fascism, and Cold War communism. What remains is late liberalism and it is now meeting its demise, maybe gradual, maybe violent.

    After all, as measured in gold, the price of a meal or a suit of clothes has been fairly steady over the last two or three millennia. As measured in fiat currency, well … it is to laugh.
     
    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.

    Nevertheless, I’m not even advocating for a return to the gold standard. Just restrained fiating would be good enough! I’m a monetary moderate and pragmatist.
     
    Fiat is inherently susceptible to manipulation either by central banks or the fractional-reserve banking system. Some kind of commodity money (cryptos included) or a currency based on wholesale price indexing, which represents either the value of wealth or trade, will be more sustainable.

    The are many things that can limit opportunities, but a major upspoken one is that there are only a certain number of genuinely productive people. Once you lend them all they can use, then it’s just a question of which hole you’re going to piss the rest of your money down. Indeed, that there still is money left after all the productive loans have been made is a pretty good indication that too much money was printed.
     
    Yes.

    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get … ______.
     
    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.

    When you’re presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress.
     
    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.

    Communist China too managed some industrialization … while starving millions.
     
    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn't have been as developed if there hadn't been the need to contain China)

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.
     
    Apples and Oranges. France was a bit laissez-faire while Germany was more state-directed. But they still beat the Soviets in terms of human cost.

    While a pure command economy has been invalidated by the Soviet example, many forms of economic planning are still on the table, even if they are rejected by free-marketers. I'm more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers' own risk (and of course a human cost).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    , @mal
    @Almost Missouri


    Fortunately, foreign money lenders will lend to anyone they think will pay them back
     
    It was American industrial corporations working for gold money and doing good business, not lenders?

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population.
     
    Those countries lost lots of their people in endless wars. French lost like a million in Napoleonic wars alone. And who knows how many in a Revolution. Same with Germans. Not to mention genocide in the colonies.

    I don’t think any major American industrial firm ever earned a significant part of its profits in the USSR.
     
    Regardless, they were happy to do business there and got paid. Clearly, wasn't too terrible of a business environment for them.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  235. @mal
    @Barbarossa


    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.
     
    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn't complain about it too much.

    I mean, how many Irish did the British starve to death less than 200 years ago? Like a million, plus many more millions as refugees?

    But this sort of thing hardly happens anymore, at least in Ireland and other developed nations. Why? because supply chains can feed all the Irish and more.

    In the past, you would see mass famines due to a pandemic. Today, not so much. All because of improvement in supply chain.

    it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
     
    We had major corrections in 2008 and 2020. Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won't stop us from growing. Its like falling off a bike. Sure, unpleasant, but so what? Who cares? You just get back up and keep riding. Major corrections are not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Barbarossa

    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn’t complain about it too much.

    It might just be my unease after reading so many conspiracy theories, but this might come into play again, not as a global-scale Irish Famine, but a global-scale Holodomor. Starving people to extract their resources for a new economy, rather than profiteering on a fragile economy reeling from natural disasters. (I need not to comment further on the nature of early Soviet economy)

    Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won’t stop us from growing.

    Past performances means nothing. The elites are taking us for a ride and we don’t know where they’re taking whenever they preach the virtues of the “Great Reset”. It’s so vacuous and open for tinfoil interpretations, and this usually is an ill omen.

    Brush this post off if you can come up with a more plausible scenario and assess its risks.

  236. @Almost Missouri
    @mal


    in 1920′ Soviet Russia operated under sound money gold standard (look up chervonets some time)
     
    Chervonets long predated the Soviets. But in Soviet times actual gold chervonets became scarce (except for paying foreign creditors). Most citizens dealt with credit tickets, sovznak, and other inflative scrip junk. Banks were "nationalized" (i.e., destroyed), so of course Soviets sought foreign sources for credit when they weren't issuing their own fake fiat money. Fortunately, foreign money lenders will lend to anyone they think will pay them back, and governments who will mass murder for the sake of a few wagons of grain seem like a reasonable credit risk.

    Soviet commisars took up American mass production methods to scale.
     
    When you're presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress. Communist China too managed some industrialization ... while starving millions.

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.


    So clearly, the commsssars did something right, or American corporations wouldn’t want to do business there.
     
    Americans want to do business everywhere all the time, so that is of no special significance. Very few American businesses actually end up earning much in foreign markets, though. I don't think any major American industrial firm ever earned a significant part of its profits in the USSR.

    ...while famines were unfortunate...
     
    "Your sacrifice for the revolution has been duly noted comrade, and—actually, scratch that, comrade, we're writing you out of history." Sorry, can't muster a "lol" for this one.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @mal

    The most concise meta-summation I can offer is that there was probably some inevitability to the conflict as different power blocs expanded up against the ceiling of the globe itself, but the conflict needn’t have been as awful as it was. In other words, some sort of friction was unavoidable irrespective of whatever financial/economic system various power blocs had.

    They were both a contest of power and ideologies. WWI eliminated classical liberalism & monarchial rule; WWII fascism, and Cold War communism. What remains is late liberalism and it is now meeting its demise, maybe gradual, maybe violent.

    After all, as measured in gold, the price of a meal or a suit of clothes has been fairly steady over the last two or three millennia. As measured in fiat currency, well … it is to laugh.

    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.

    Nevertheless, I’m not even advocating for a return to the gold standard. Just restrained fiating would be good enough! I’m a monetary moderate and pragmatist.

    Fiat is inherently susceptible to manipulation either by central banks or the fractional-reserve banking system. Some kind of commodity money (cryptos included) or a currency based on wholesale price indexing, which represents either the value of wealth or trade, will be more sustainable.

    The are many things that can limit opportunities, but a major upspoken one is that there are only a certain number of genuinely productive people. Once you lend them all they can use, then it’s just a question of which hole you’re going to piss the rest of your money down. Indeed, that there still is money left after all the productive loans have been made is a pretty good indication that too much money was printed.

    Yes.

    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get … ______.

    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.

    When you’re presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress.

    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.

    Communist China too managed some industrialization … while starving millions.

    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn’t have been as developed if there hadn’t been the need to contain China)

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.

    Apples and Oranges. France was a bit laissez-faire while Germany was more state-directed. But they still beat the Soviets in terms of human cost.

    While a pure command economy has been invalidated by the Soviet example, many forms of economic planning are still on the table, even if they are rejected by free-marketers. I’m more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers’ own risk (and of course a human cost).

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    @Yellowface Anon


    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.
     
    Yeah, it's hard to argue with thousands of years of consistent stability.

    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.
     
    I see libertarianism (and perhaps communism?) as what could happen in an environment of highly self-restrained government and a productive and upright population. So far these circumstances have never occurred in real life. I put a question mark after communisms, because Marx never really defined what communism is or how it works, other than saying that in communism he would be able "to do this today and that tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, to go fishing in the afternoon, to do cattle breeding in the evening, to criticise after dinner." In other words, it would be a sort of secular-materialist paradise. Okay, but how? And what about when your neighbor decides to take your cattle rather than tend his own? And what if your neighbor is Genghis Khan?

    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.
    ...
    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn’t have been as developed if there hadn’t been the need to contain China)
     
    Thanks and Agree.

    I’m more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers’ own risk (and of course a human cost).
     
    Of course the risk and cost is usually borne mostly by working classes rather than the policy makers.

    Which reminds me ... the subject of the (long term) eugenic effect of (short term) population bottlenecks, for instance in the creation of Ashkenazi intelligence, has come up here before, and that got me thinking: the first two thirds or so the 20th century had some pretty harrowing Eurasian population bottlenecks (WWI, WWII, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, etc.) which, with a few exceptions (e.g., massacre of Polish officer class at Katyn) fell disproportionately on the working, poor, and underclass. So after the short term horror of the bottlenecking, shouldn't we be starting to see a eugenic dividend emerging about now, particularly in heavily harrowed Eastern Europe?

    I don't know much about the demographic effect of WWI in France, but I seem to recall that the UK's upper class really took it on the chin in WWI, which they were determined not to repeat in WWII, while France obviously mostly sat out WWII. So maybe the big wars were not necessarily eugenic in Western Europe. (And now of course they import low-human-capital immigrants by the boatload, so they're doubly out of the eugenic game.)

    In his memoir, Hitler complained about how useful, patriotic and productive Germans were disproportionately getting killed at the front in WWI, while malingerers and shirkers proliferated behind the lines, but naturally he didn't provide any peer-reviewed studies to back that up. My reading of WWII memoirs is that Germany's death-burden fell somewhere between the UK's upper class sacrifice and the USSR's mass peasant human waves, so maybe it was eugenically neutral there?

    Anyhow, I've never heard this subject broached explicitly, and I wonder what others here think about this? Is the Russian Reaction the eugenic dividend of the 20th century's tragedies? Was China's rise to bourgeois-dom secretly aided by last century's famines? Was the UK doomed by a demographic death blow?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  237. What are the minimum requirements for a nation-state?

    Heard somewhere that that 40% of the world doesn’t collect reliable vital stats, which makes me think that much of this group might be suspect. Maybe, there is a minimum IQ? Or are they just too polyglot?

    Having nuclear weapons is probably good but not sufficient. About a third of births in England and Whales are to foreign-born mothers. France seems roughly equally fucked.

    What will happen to the fake countries? I believe we haven’t seen the final borders in Africa.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
    @songbird

    The UK and France are quite interesting examples because AFAIK they were among the first nation states to come into being, France could even be the prototype example of them. They still have articulate and informed guys like Eric Zemmour in public life (he maintains a kind of semi-mystical belief in the post 1648 nation state of France), it makes me think that it will probably be in France that the potential disintegration of this model due to high levels of immigration is first faced consciously.

    I have seen quite reasonable but low key defences of it in relation to the UK, specifically in respect of England the situation is not good though. In 2017 you could see estimates that close to 25% of the population of England was already ethnic minority or foreign born, the woke stuff washing over from the US is like a steroidal highly political version of multi-culturalism which encourages people to identify emotionally with the heritage of their colonised ancestors in what are now other independent nations. I don't see any British figures like Zemmour, or any kind of equivalent tradition of mysticism around the concept of the British state either.

    If England can't be rescued, it might be possible with Scotland and Ireland still. I found out that my mother's maiden name in Irish means 'snow white', this is quite interesting, it is like having a certain level of political incorrectness in your name itself.

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

  238. @mal
    @Barbarossa


    The difference to me from historical examples is that we exist in a far more precarious position as per the current social and technological complexity. Current and still spiraling supply chain disruptions (stemming from a relatively minor event) show the brittleness of the current system in handling stress.
     
    Nah, if anything, we are far better at handling stress than at any point in history. Its just that famine and death were normal for people in the past, so they didn't complain about it too much.

    I mean, how many Irish did the British starve to death less than 200 years ago? Like a million, plus many more millions as refugees?

    But this sort of thing hardly happens anymore, at least in Ireland and other developed nations. Why? because supply chains can feed all the Irish and more.

    In the past, you would see mass famines due to a pandemic. Today, not so much. All because of improvement in supply chain.

    it seems to me that major correction is ultimately inevitable.
     
    We had major corrections in 2008 and 2020. Usually, major corrections occur once a decade, and they are perfectly normal. We then get up and keep on growing. So yes, major corrections are inevitable, and no, they won't stop us from growing. Its like falling off a bike. Sure, unpleasant, but so what? Who cares? You just get back up and keep riding. Major corrections are not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Barbarossa

    My point is more that in a very complex, centralized world everything works extremely well, until it doesn’t. The interconnected and interdependent nature of our modern world mean that once a big enough disruption starts, the effects ripple through the entire structure.

    Most of the disasters of the past, like the Irish famine (the reason my family came to America) were relatively localized in their effects.

    If any significant crippling disruption happens in our modern system it really could conceivably take it all down. The resilience of a very complex system becomes dependent on increasingly refined conditions.

    To me, the lesson of Covid is how small a disruption it takes to set off major instabilities in the global system. These are still playing out with rising inflation and spiraling goods and services shortages, so we haven’t seen the full extent yet. I own a business and know other people who do as well and it’s incredible how backed up things are right now, with no real end in sight.

  239. @Yellowface Anon
    @Almost Missouri


    The most concise meta-summation I can offer is that there was probably some inevitability to the conflict as different power blocs expanded up against the ceiling of the globe itself, but the conflict needn’t have been as awful as it was. In other words, some sort of friction was unavoidable irrespective of whatever financial/economic system various power blocs had.
     
    They were both a contest of power and ideologies. WWI eliminated classical liberalism & monarchial rule; WWII fascism, and Cold War communism. What remains is late liberalism and it is now meeting its demise, maybe gradual, maybe violent.

    After all, as measured in gold, the price of a meal or a suit of clothes has been fairly steady over the last two or three millennia. As measured in fiat currency, well … it is to laugh.
     
    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.

    Nevertheless, I’m not even advocating for a return to the gold standard. Just restrained fiating would be good enough! I’m a monetary moderate and pragmatist.
     
    Fiat is inherently susceptible to manipulation either by central banks or the fractional-reserve banking system. Some kind of commodity money (cryptos included) or a currency based on wholesale price indexing, which represents either the value of wealth or trade, will be more sustainable.

    The are many things that can limit opportunities, but a major upspoken one is that there are only a certain number of genuinely productive people. Once you lend them all they can use, then it’s just a question of which hole you’re going to piss the rest of your money down. Indeed, that there still is money left after all the productive loans have been made is a pretty good indication that too much money was printed.
     
    Yes.

    When libertarians and socialists unite, you get … ______.
     
    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.

    When you’re presiding over a subsistence serf-tier plantation economy, there is enormous room for improvement, so even the most ham-fisted methods can make some progress.
     
    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.

    Communist China too managed some industrialization … while starving millions.
     
    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn't have been as developed if there hadn't been the need to contain China)

    Somehow France and Germany both managed to industrialize earlier without starving off big chunks of their population. Maybe something to do with not being run by Bolsheviks.
     
    Apples and Oranges. France was a bit laissez-faire while Germany was more state-directed. But they still beat the Soviets in terms of human cost.

    While a pure command economy has been invalidated by the Soviet example, many forms of economic planning are still on the table, even if they are rejected by free-marketers. I'm more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers' own risk (and of course a human cost).

    Replies: @Almost Missouri

    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.

    Yeah, it’s hard to argue with thousands of years of consistent stability.

    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.

    I see libertarianism (and perhaps communism?) as what could happen in an environment of highly self-restrained government and a productive and upright population. So far these circumstances have never occurred in real life. I put a question mark after communisms, because Marx never really defined what communism is or how it works, other than saying that in communism he would be able “to do this today and that tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, to go fishing in the afternoon, to do cattle breeding in the evening, to criticise after dinner.” In other words, it would be a sort of secular-materialist paradise. Okay, but how? And what about when your neighbor decides to take your cattle rather than tend his own? And what if your neighbor is Genghis Khan?

    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.

    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn’t have been as developed if there hadn’t been the need to contain China)

    Thanks and Agree.

    I’m more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers’ own risk (and of course a human cost).

    Of course the risk and cost is usually borne mostly by working classes rather than the policy makers.

    Which reminds me … the subject of the (long term) eugenic effect of (short term) population bottlenecks, for instance in the creation of Ashkenazi intelligence, has come up here before, and that got me thinking: the first two thirds or so the 20th century had some pretty harrowing Eurasian population bottlenecks (WWI, WWII, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, etc.) which, with a few exceptions (e.g., massacre of Polish officer class at Katyn) fell disproportionately on the working, poor, and underclass. So after the short term horror of the bottlenecking, shouldn’t we be starting to see a eugenic dividend emerging about now, particularly in heavily harrowed Eastern Europe?

    I don’t know much about the demographic effect of WWI in France, but I seem to recall that the UK’s upper class really took it on the chin in WWI, which they were determined not to repeat in WWII, while France obviously mostly sat out WWII. So maybe the big wars were not necessarily eugenic in Western Europe. (And now of course they import low-human-capital immigrants by the boatload, so they’re doubly out of the eugenic game.)

    In his memoir, Hitler complained about how useful, patriotic and productive Germans were disproportionately getting killed at the front in WWI, while malingerers and shirkers proliferated behind the lines, but naturally he didn’t provide any peer-reviewed studies to back that up. My reading of WWII memoirs is that Germany’s death-burden fell somewhere between the UK’s upper class sacrifice and the USSR’s mass peasant human waves, so maybe it was eugenically neutral there?

    Anyhow, I’ve never heard this subject broached explicitly, and I wonder what others here think about this? Is the Russian Reaction the eugenic dividend of the 20th century’s tragedies? Was China’s rise to bourgeois-dom secretly aided by last century’s famines? Was the UK doomed by a demographic death blow?

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Almost Missouri


    I see libertarianism (and perhaps communism?) as what could happen in an environment of highly self-restrained government and a productive and upright population. So far these circumstances have never occurred in real life. I put a question mark after communisms, because Marx never really defined what communism is or how it works, other than saying that in communism he would be able “to do this today and that tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, to go fishing in the afternoon, to do cattle breeding in the evening, to criticise after dinner.” In other words, it would be a sort of secular-materialist paradise. Okay, but how? And what about when your neighbor decides to take your cattle rather than tend his own? And when your neighbor is the Mongols…
     
    Thanks for realizing the ideological limits of these utopian forms of political structure! While I see libertarianism as possible in an Americanized society (which has strong notions of individualism, established local communities and a largely private economy contemptuous of state intervention), but nowhere else. I'm more of a "leave anything organic and working in place" guy, and some libertarian policies can facilitate this end. Communism requires either post-scarcity or an impossible change in human nature.

    Which reminds me … the subject of the (long term) eugenic effect of (short term) population bottlenecks, for instance in the creation of Ashkenazi intelligence, has come up here before, and that got me thinking: the first two thirds or so the 20th century had some pretty harrowing population bottlenecks in Eurasia (WWI, WWII, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, etc.) which, with a few exceptions (e.g., Soviet massacre of Polish officer class at Katyn) fell disproportionately on the working, poor, and underclass. So after the short term horror of the bottlenecking, shouldn’t we be starting to see a eugenic dividend emerging about now, particularly in heavily harrowed Eastern Europe?
     
    I see it more in the acceleration of demographic transition, which is inevitable after a considerable faction of reproductive age males had been killed off. But anything else I have no idea. Whatever, what's done is done.

    Replies: @schnellandine

  240. @mal
    @Yellowface Anon


    Opportunities are infinite but resources are limited as far as we can identify, and they need to be prioritized to make the best of them before we can find more of them
     
    Maybe, but it hasn't been the case historically. For example, current EU gas crisis is not caused by the physical shortage of gas - there's literally an infinite amount of gas out there for the taking and has always been. But they have political considerations that prevent them from using it.

    Same deal with all other resources - there's an infinite amount of energy and materials in the universe. That's a fact. But will the politics allow us to get it? I don't know. Political questions are far from certain.

    See things structurally – what Zimbabwe had was Mugabe expropriating land from White cultivators and distributing them to both cronies and undertrained Black smallholders. The entire agricultural economy collapsed afterwards. Hyperinflation was just the symptom.
     
    Agree.

    Hopefully many more realize this, and how both comes downstream from culture. Culture is the basis for everything
     
    There's a good case for that.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    There may be practically infinite energy in the universe, but the question is accessibility. A lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked there. You can certainly extract usable energy from tar sands or fracking, but it takes much more energy investment to do so than a barrel of sweet crude.
    The return on investment is much lower.

    This is the same issue with “renewables” like solar and wind. They have a relatively rotten return on investment.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa

    The lowest energy "fruit" is the free supply of "waste" Thorium that could be reclaimed to serve as fuel via a breeder reactor.

    Some aggressive claims have been made that Thorium is 50% more renewable than solar. We have only 4 Billion years of Sun/Sol versus 6 Billion years of Thorium.

    I do not know that claim is supportable, however Thorium is easily 10,000+ years for the planet.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    , @mal
    @Barbarossa

    As A123 mentioned, we do have a solution - nuclear power, but like anything else, it's bottlenecked by politics. We can access any amount of energy we want, there's not a physical limitation. But will we be allowed to? On that, I have no idea. Politics is a different problem from physics though.

    Replies: @Barbarossa

  241. @Almost Missouri
    @Yellowface Anon


    You see how well commodity monies are as a store of value.
     
    Yeah, it's hard to argue with thousands of years of consistent stability.

    I snapped out of libertarianism because what they propose are just as narrow and unfeasible as communism.
     
    I see libertarianism (and perhaps communism?) as what could happen in an environment of highly self-restrained government and a productive and upright population. So far these circumstances have never occurred in real life. I put a question mark after communisms, because Marx never really defined what communism is or how it works, other than saying that in communism he would be able "to do this today and that tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, to go fishing in the afternoon, to do cattle breeding in the evening, to criticise after dinner." In other words, it would be a sort of secular-materialist paradise. Okay, but how? And what about when your neighbor decides to take your cattle rather than tend his own? And what if your neighbor is Genghis Khan?

    AK has done a lot of posts on the lost potential of the Russian lands from 1917 and you can check them out. Basically the Russian Empire was already quite industrialized before the Soviets came onto the stage and the Soviets was just catching up back onto the trajectory and then stagnating from that.
    ...
    Pretty much the same, which is why AK said Maoism gave China a 20-year lag relative to South Korea. Without communism, it could just have been a few years (but South Korea wouldn’t have been as developed if there hadn’t been the need to contain China)
     
    Thanks and Agree.

    I’m more inclined for a free market but those proposals can still be tried at the policymakers’ own risk (and of course a human cost).
     
    Of course the risk and cost is usually borne mostly by working classes rather than the policy makers.

    Which reminds me ... the subject of the (long term) eugenic effect of (short term) population bottlenecks, for instance in the creation of Ashkenazi intelligence, has come up here before, and that got me thinking: the first two thirds or so the 20th century had some pretty harrowing Eurasian population bottlenecks (WWI, WWII, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, etc.) which, with a few exceptions (e.g., massacre of Polish officer class at Katyn) fell disproportionately on the working, poor, and underclass. So after the short term horror of the bottlenecking, shouldn't we be starting to see a eugenic dividend emerging about now, particularly in heavily harrowed Eastern Europe?

    I don't know much about the demographic effect of WWI in France, but I seem to recall that the UK's upper class really took it on the chin in WWI, which they were determined not to repeat in WWII, while France obviously mostly sat out WWII. So maybe the big wars were not necessarily eugenic in Western Europe. (And now of course they import low-human-capital immigrants by the boatload, so they're doubly out of the eugenic game.)

    In his memoir, Hitler complained about how useful, patriotic and productive Germans were disproportionately getting killed at the front in WWI, while malingerers and shirkers proliferated behind the lines, but naturally he didn't provide any peer-reviewed studies to back that up. My reading of WWII memoirs is that Germany's death-burden fell somewhere between the UK's upper class sacrifice and the USSR's mass peasant human waves, so maybe it was eugenically neutral there?

    Anyhow, I've never heard this subject broached explicitly, and I wonder what others here think about this? Is the Russian Reaction the eugenic dividend of the 20th century's tragedies? Was China's rise to bourgeois-dom secretly aided by last century's famines? Was the UK doomed by a demographic death blow?

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    I see libertarianism (and perhaps communism?) as what could happen in an environment of highly self-restrained government and a productive and upright population. So far these circumstances have never occurred in real life. I put a question mark after communisms, because Marx never really defined what communism is or how it works, other than saying that in communism he would be able “to do this today and that tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, to go fishing in the afternoon, to do cattle breeding in the evening, to criticise after dinner.” In other words, it would be a sort of secular-materialist paradise. Okay, but how? And what about when your neighbor decides to take your cattle rather than tend his own? And when your neighbor is the Mongols…

    Thanks for realizing the ideological limits of these utopian forms of political structure! While I see libertarianism as possible in an Americanized society (which has strong notions of individualism, established local communities and a largely private economy contemptuous of state intervention), but nowhere else. I’m more of a “leave anything organic and working in place” guy, and some libertarian policies can facilitate this end. Communism requires either post-scarcity or an impossible change in human nature.

    Which reminds me … the subject of the (long term) eugenic effect of (short term) population bottlenecks, for instance in the creation of Ashkenazi intelligence, has come up here before, and that got me thinking: the first two thirds or so the 20th century had some pretty harrowing population bottlenecks in Eurasia (WWI, WWII, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, etc.) which, with a few exceptions (e.g., Soviet massacre of Polish officer class at Katyn) fell disproportionately on the working, poor, and underclass. So after the short term horror of the bottlenecking, shouldn’t we be starting to see a eugenic dividend emerging about now, particularly in heavily harrowed Eastern Europe?

    I see it more in the acceleration of demographic transition, which is inevitable after a considerable faction of reproductive age males had been killed off. But anything else I have no idea. Whatever, what’s done is done.

    • Replies: @schnellandine
    @Yellowface Anon


    Thanks for realizing the ideological limits of these utopian forms of political structure!
     
    Please give your definition of libertarianism. I see it discussed at UR almost daily, yet they appear to be discussions of something of which I know nothing—which appears soon after to have been the primary point. The popular definition of 'libertarianism' creeps almost as quickly as that of the intellectually useless 'democracy'.

    Could it be that 'libertarianism' is something of which most UR commenters know nothing—preferring to make it a whipping boy of distraction?

    Had I a website similar to UR, there'd be a requirement that certain words be defined by each writer, possibly merely with a link to his definition, before inclusion of the word allowed. The list would number over 100.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Yellowface Anon, @John Johnson

  242. As another commenter pointed out, Biden pulled us from Afghanistan. Trump said that he would, but he didn’t.

    Because highly intelligent Trump realized that:
        • Gen Milley had Senate protection
        • Gen Milley would intentionally fail at withdrawal

    Why did you want Trump to have a catastrophic failure on his record? The Milley fiasco could have scuppered the entire MAGA movement.

    Why do you celebrate the predictable Biden/Milley fiasco?
    _____

    Similar logic applies to Syria. Trump skillfully extracted U.S. forces from the kill sack between Turkish and Syrian lines via the excuse “protecting oil”. He did not walk into a Milley failure, by trying to order them out of the country.

    Trump’s success has limited conflict to occasional bouts of 18 year old road rage as APC drivers rub on each other. While unpleasant, that is not going to light off a major combat engagement with heavy casualties.

    Why do you not want to talk about Trump’s genuine achievements?
    Could it be #NeverTrump?

    Trump also promised infrastructure but did not deliver. It appears that Biden may deliver that infrastructure bill.

    Presidents cannot appropriate funds. Due to the presence of non-MAGA GOP(e) swamp critters, MAGA never had a majority in the House or Senate. The only way Trump could have appropriated infrastructure funds would have been overthrowing the Constitution and declaring himself — God Emperor Triumphus I.

    I hate to break it to you, but the Diversity, Inclusion, Equity [DIE] funding being pushed by the House this year has nothing to do with Infrastructure. It is a social engineering bill. Less than 10% of the funds are earmarked for heavy construction such as bridges & roads. None is marked for border security construction.
    _____

    The most politically aware President in recent history took the achievable wins. And, did not overreach thus minimizing avoidable failures. He did much better than any other recent President with both opposition House and Senate.

    If democracy survives…. The growing MAGA movement stands a good chance at capturing the House appropriations power in the 2022 election. Senate confirmation power will probably be an obtained in 2024 along with a MAGA President.
    ____

    It is logical deduction that your #NeverTrump flailing is motivated by your desire to intentionally fracture support for MAGA. The only movement that has a chance to displace your SJW Globalism.

    If you are not trying to undermine MAGA — Why are you intentionally pushing SJW agitprop hammering Trump for things he had 0% chance of achieving in his First Term?
    ____

    If you really are MAGA — You might get your dream scenario. If the SJW/DNC tries to kill democracy to stop MAGA’s inevitable rise. You may get your God Emperor Triumphus I and the associated Civil War.

    It could lead to a much better U.S. with Constitution 2.0 -or- glow in the dark smoking nuclear craters. I personally think you are nuts to *want* that type of engagement. But if the Nazi-crats bring it. I will fight it.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @iffen
    @A123

    You've got the retard vote nailed down, so you can ease up on the BS. There are very few fish left in that barrel. You need to pick up some college educated voters. There are a lot of fish in that one. Hopefully Trump will see the uptick in his non-Hispanic and non-white vote and work on that as well in 2024.

    Replies: @A123

  243. Afghanistan was a perfect example of this. Trump abandoned his previous correct conviction that our involvement was idiotic,

    100% incorrect.

    Bigly aware and intelligent Trump realized that:
        • Firing Senate protected Gen. Milley would end his administration via impeachment.
        • Ordering Gen. Milley to Withdraw would result in an intentional failure due to Pentagon led disloyalty.

    Trump took the achievable win. He scaled back engagement as much as he could with the perfidious Milley in the Chain of Command. Thus, reducing U.S. casualties to a trickle. Still too many, but much better then overreach and failure.

    That mentally ill Not-The-President Biden regressed into an Obama era mind set, slipped his leash, and scampered into Traitor Milley’s ambush was quite surprising.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I'm no Biden fanboy, but I can't understand why his US pullout was actually all that disastrous. I thought it actually went about as smoothly as could be reasonably expected.

    There is of course a big GOP push to manufacture the "Afghan pullout debacle" as midterm election outrage fodder, but I guarantee that had Trump done the pullout the Dems would be wailing about his incompetence despite conditions being materially the same.

    A lot of this theorizing about Trump's God-level expert political machinations seems to ring hollow held up against his actions and where he is today. I suppose that the justifications can flow endlessly just as the deranged Trump hate did while he was in office. I'm no Trump hater, but he seems a very silly savior to peg ones' faith on.

    In the end, Trump was not Hitler, but he wasn't any Bismark either.

    Replies: @A123

  244. About something Anatoly had been writing about, Covid deaths. Those reading Serbian- OK, you van Google-Tran it- can read that Serbia had, it seems, 3 times more Covid deaths than reported:

    https://www.juznevesti.com/BalkanPres/Epidemioloskinja-Jasno-je-da-su-podaci-o-smrtnosti-od-kovida-lazni.sr.html

    Epidemiološkinja: Jasno je da su podaci o smrtnosti od kovida lažni

    https://birn.rs/broj-umrlih-od-korone-tri-puta-veci/

    Potvrđena manipulacija: U 2020. godini postojale potvrde o smrti za tri puta veći broj umrlih od korone

    3,000 deaths were, actually- 10,000

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Yes the Balkans seems to have some of the most deaths in the world from coronavirus, relative to population.

    Most deadly countries in the world for coronavirus (of those with excess deaths data available on World Mortality Dataset) seem to be postsoviet sphere, Latin America and - Balkans.
    https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality
    https://i.imgur.com/HYXAi5O.jpg

    Replies: @Dmitry

  245. @A123
    @Barbarossa

    Afghanistan was a perfect example of this. Trump abandoned his previous correct conviction that our involvement was idiotic,
     
    100% incorrect.

    Bigly aware and intelligent Trump realized that:
        • Firing Senate protected Gen. Milley would end his administration via impeachment.
        • Ordering Gen. Milley to Withdraw would result in an intentional failure due to Pentagon led disloyalty.

    Trump took the achievable win. He scaled back engagement as much as he could with the perfidious Milley in the Chain of Command. Thus, reducing U.S. casualties to a trickle. Still too many, but much better then overreach and failure.

    That mentally ill Not-The-President Biden regressed into an Obama era mind set, slipped his leash, and scampered into Traitor Milley's ambush was quite surprising.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Barbarossa

    I’m no Biden fanboy, but I can’t understand why his US pullout was actually all that disastrous. I thought it actually went about as smoothly as could be reasonably expected.

    There is of course a big GOP push to manufacture the “Afghan pullout debacle” as midterm election outrage fodder, but I guarantee that had Trump done the pullout the Dems would be wailing about his incompetence despite conditions being materially the same.

    A lot of this theorizing about Trump’s God-level expert political machinations seems to ring hollow held up against his actions and where he is today. I suppose that the justifications can flow endlessly just as the deranged Trump hate did while he was in office. I’m no Trump hater, but he seems a very silly savior to peg ones’ faith on.

    In the end, Trump was not Hitler, but he wasn’t any Bismark either.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Barbarossa


    can’t understand why his US pullout was actually all that disastrous. I thought it actually went about as smoothly as could be reasonably expected.
     
    A sane plan would have:

    -1- Kept defensible Bagram AFB open
    -2- Evacuated U.S civilians first
    -3- Evacuated other non combatant second
    -4- Fully vetted non combatants (before U.S. entry)
    -5- Recovered expensive military equipment (including brand new helicopters)
    -6- Closed with an orderly military departure from a secure facility

     
    https://ace.mu.nu/archives/suntzu.jpg
     

    Remember the Taliban wanted the U.S. to go and stay gone. They were ready to fully support Trump's original plan to prevent any incidents that might result in a change of mind and/or provide a pretext to stay.

    The Milley/Biden fiasco had no coordination with the locals. And, did everything in the worst manner & sequence possible leading to dead marines and embarrassing airport footage. It is fairly obvious that Gen. Milley intentionally killed American troops in order to:

        • Undermine other possible withdrawals, such as Syria.
        • Try to humiliate Biden into staying in Afghanistan.

    There is of course a big GOP push to manufacture the “Afghan pullout debacle” as midterm election outrage fodder,
     
    Had there been no treason, perhaps the GOP might have manufactured something. However, there is so much actual incompetence from Not-The-President Biden and his illegitimate administration there really is no need to manufacture anything.

    If Gen SJW Milley had not sold out to America's enemies, the GOP technique would have been giving the military 100% credit and Biden 0%. This would have been true and easier than attempting to manufacture a set-up.

    I’m no Trump hater, but he seems a very silly savior to peg ones’ faith on.
     
    The faith belongs with MAGA which is much larger than just Trump.

    Lying about Trump's achievements and creating fiction about his Senate limited appointments is 100% pure, unadulterated, #NeverTrump behaviour. Blaming someone for *not achieving the unachievable* is inherently absurd and can only be explained by malicious intent.

    PEACE 😇

    #LetsGoBrandon

    Replies: @songbird, @Barbarossa

  246. @Barbarossa
    @mal

    There may be practically infinite energy in the universe, but the question is accessibility. A lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked there. You can certainly extract usable energy from tar sands or fracking, but it takes much more energy investment to do so than a barrel of sweet crude.
    The return on investment is much lower.

    This is the same issue with "renewables" like solar and wind. They have a relatively rotten return on investment.

    Replies: @A123, @mal

    The lowest energy “fruit” is the free supply of “waste” Thorium that could be reclaimed to serve as fuel via a breeder reactor.

    Some aggressive claims have been made that Thorium is 50% more renewable than solar. We have only 4 Billion years of Sun/Sol versus 6 Billion years of Thorium.

    I do not know that claim is supportable, however Thorium is easily 10,000+ years for the planet.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I've done some reading in the past on "alternative" nukes and molten salt reactors using Thorium look interesting. It seems like there is a lot of conflicting info on how many problems they really solve though, especially since they have their own set of technical issues.
    China seems bullish on bringing them to scale, so perhaps we'll see more soon on that front.

    While they might be a viable possibility in the future they certainly don't seem like a magic bullet.


    https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/nuclear-power-why-molten-salt-reactors-are-problematic-and-canada-investing-in-them-is-a-waste/

    https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/molten-salt-reactors.aspx

    https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-08-22/whatever-happened-to-chinas-revolutionary-molten-salt-nuclear-reactor-program/

    Replies: @A123

  247. @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I'm no Biden fanboy, but I can't understand why his US pullout was actually all that disastrous. I thought it actually went about as smoothly as could be reasonably expected.

    There is of course a big GOP push to manufacture the "Afghan pullout debacle" as midterm election outrage fodder, but I guarantee that had Trump done the pullout the Dems would be wailing about his incompetence despite conditions being materially the same.

    A lot of this theorizing about Trump's God-level expert political machinations seems to ring hollow held up against his actions and where he is today. I suppose that the justifications can flow endlessly just as the deranged Trump hate did while he was in office. I'm no Trump hater, but he seems a very silly savior to peg ones' faith on.

    In the end, Trump was not Hitler, but he wasn't any Bismark either.

    Replies: @A123

    can’t understand why his US pullout was actually all that disastrous. I thought it actually went about as smoothly as could be reasonably expected.

    A sane plan would have:

    -1- Kept defensible Bagram AFB open
    -2- Evacuated U.S civilians first
    -3- Evacuated other non combatant second
    -4- Fully vetted non combatants (before U.S. entry)
    -5- Recovered expensive military equipment (including brand new helicopters)
    -6- Closed with an orderly military departure from a secure facility

     

     

    Remember the Taliban wanted the U.S. to go and stay gone. They were ready to fully support Trump’s original plan to prevent any incidents that might result in a change of mind and/or provide a pretext to stay.

    The Milley/Biden fiasco had no coordination with the locals. And, did everything in the worst manner & sequence possible leading to dead marines and embarrassing airport footage. It is fairly obvious that Gen. Milley intentionally killed American troops in order to:

        • Undermine other possible withdrawals, such as Syria.
        • Try to humiliate Biden into staying in Afghanistan.

    There is of course a big GOP push to manufacture the “Afghan pullout debacle” as midterm election outrage fodder,

    Had there been no treason, perhaps the GOP might have manufactured something. However, there is so much actual incompetence from Not-The-President Biden and his illegitimate administration there really is no need to manufacture anything.

    If Gen SJW Milley had not sold out to America’s enemies, the GOP technique would have been giving the military 100% credit and Biden 0%. This would have been true and easier than attempting to manufacture a set-up.

    I’m no Trump hater, but he seems a very silly savior to peg ones’ faith on.

    The faith belongs with MAGA which is much larger than just Trump.

    Lying about Trump’s achievements and creating fiction about his Senate limited appointments is 100% pure, unadulterated, #NeverTrump behaviour. Blaming someone for *not achieving the unachievable* is inherently absurd and can only be explained by malicious intent.

    PEACE 😇

    #LetsGoBrandon

    • Replies: @songbird
    @A123

    I suspect that leaving equipment behind is the historical average for the US. For example, the army did it after they occupied Veracruz in 1914, even though it was a port city. Some of the guns they left may have later been used to murder gringos.

    What has changed is that the equipment has gotten more complicated and expensive.

    There was a lot of woke outrage about leaving "US citizens" behind. But these were no doubt Afghans who will arive soon enough, and then help their relatives come as well.

    Replies: @A123, @Barbarossa

    , @Barbarossa
    @A123

    I think you are making it all a bit more complicated than it is.
    The main reason for the somewhat harried final pullout was that the Afghan government and military collapsed in a matter of days, bringing the Taliban into Kabul far ahead of even the most ambitious of predictions. I didn't even see predictions of such complete collapse from the most doomer of American-skeptic sources.
    If the Afghan Government had held Kabul for only a couple more months it all would have been fairly seamless.

    Sometimes shit just happens, and "The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men Gang aft agley".

    I've heard folks armchair strategize that the US should have done the withdrawal from the more defensible Bagram etc.

    The problem is that Bagram is 38 miles and an hour and a half drive in favorable conditions from Kabul International Airport. All the people are in Kabul, so had the the pullout happened from Bagram, there would have been a chaotic mad scramble to move everyone over Taliban held ground (probably with a high concentration of ISIS K getting in some parting shots) to evacuate. It would have been likely far more of a cluster, with far more deaths. There were sound logistical reasons for using the airfield in the population center.


    The faith belongs with MAGA which is much larger than just Trump.

     

    Perhaps for you, but I live in a very Trumpy area and the cult of personality is quite incredible.

    Replies: @A123

  248. I’ve been reading John Dee and the Empire of Angels and I need to say (esp. to those who see the Signs of the End Times in the Great Reset agenda): I’m no a Christian, but the best and the sole historical interpretation of the Revelations is the Preterist one. Unambiguously, the Apocalypse of John was written for contemporary audiences and contains an allegory of religio-political trends of 1st century Roman Judea, esp. the interactions between Roman and Jewish authority.

    It is only thru centuries of studies and exegesis, including countless and mainstream attempts in trying to project a eschatology into the future, was the symbolism and the expectation of a final redemption internalized. And historical actors of interest, likely unconsciously, have been infusing political and social movements with gradual realizations of the eschatological scenario, that cumulates in the bulk of modernist trends. The book has a lot of remarks that connect important historical events to the deliberate actions of persons heavily influenced by Christian eschatology, esp. John Dee and his role in the mystical-ideological foundation of the British Empire that has cumulated in the American hegemony and globalism. And look again at the symbolisms in the events of the past 20 years that have been identified by Christian doomers, and then those by Bill Gates, and the WEF. They are setting the date of the “End Times” to be this decade and bringing back many of those symbolisms from Roman Judea.

    You may say this is God working in mysterious ways. But there are billions who have never been adherents of Abrahamic religions, and will never be, and they have differing interpretations of histories, sometimes having an end point far in the horizon and sometimes having no beginning and end. We also have millions who have left the Abrahamic faiths while staying in their worldview, and seeing a far different utopia from the New Jerusalem Christians promise. Those innocents are being pulled into the self-inflicted termination of the Abrahamic religious world. Imagine the agony of Buddhists, Taoists and Confucians, and Hindus, and atheists who are forced to lose their future over such religious parochialism.

    Let the Confucian world last a myriad years for the Sinosphere. But failing that, “hear the Tao in the morning, and one can die contented in the evening”.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Yellowface Anon

    Well, that sounds like I'm a Full Preterist, plus an Intentional (as in fulfillment) Futurist on Christian Eschatology. Quite an audacious view from a non-Christian East Asian.

    , @AaronB
    @Yellowface Anon

    Thanks, interesting reflections.

    You know, I often think we humans imagine our actions are way more significant than they are and we have way more control than we do.

    To adapt from a quote from LOTR, "there are other forces than the will of humans in the world".

    I don't mean this in any religious sense to refer to God - simply, humans can never foresee everything - I would argue our abilities are actually quite puny - and surprises and confounding factors always exist.

    All these "grand plans" to affect the entire fate of the planet always and inevitably end up in unexpected and surprising places.

    For instance, the Grand Narrative of the 19th century was one of technological progress leading to an ever more rational world in which war would be abolished.

    Instead, it all led to WWI - not a rationalist utopia. What was unexpected was that people grew bored of peace and stability, and of an excessive preoccupation with the material realm. WW1 - the "causeless war" as I regard it - was an attempt at transcendence from the dull confines of a preoccupation with the material realm that constituted technological progress, with it's responsibility and sobriety, it's solid bourgeois common sense, it's sense of spirit being smothered in rigid rules (which led Dostoyevsky's Underground Man to cry out that he refuses to accept that 2+2=4) , all for the trivial benefit of physical safety and survival.

    I am quite sure that whatever Grand Plan the WEF has in store for us - if it indeed has one - will never turn out even remotely as they expect with their illusions of control, but far more interestingly and confoundingly unexpected.

    And in the end, if the human race succeeds in destroying itself, does it really matter? If indeed, as the Taoists and Zennists and mystics of all denominations say, human beings are merely "expressions" of an indestructible underlying energy that now takes on this form, now that, but is fundamentally indivisible and cannot die, what matter if this energy no longer takes on the particular human form?

    There may be fantastic and undreamed of forms for this energy to take on, beings we can't concierge of - but that are in the deepest sense us :)

    One must be very parochial indeed to insist on the human form of this energy surviving forever :)

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  249. @Yellowface Anon
    I've been reading John Dee and the Empire of Angels and I need to say (esp. to those who see the Signs of the End Times in the Great Reset agenda): I'm no a Christian, but the best and the sole historical interpretation of the Revelations is the Preterist one. Unambiguously, the Apocalypse of John was written for contemporary audiences and contains an allegory of religio-political trends of 1st century Roman Judea, esp. the interactions between Roman and Jewish authority.

    It is only thru centuries of studies and exegesis, including countless and mainstream attempts in trying to project a eschatology into the future, was the symbolism and the expectation of a final redemption internalized. And historical actors of interest, likely unconsciously, have been infusing political and social movements with gradual realizations of the eschatological scenario, that cumulates in the bulk of modernist trends. The book has a lot of remarks that connect important historical events to the deliberate actions of persons heavily influenced by Christian eschatology, esp. John Dee and his role in the mystical-ideological foundation of the British Empire that has cumulated in the American hegemony and globalism. And look again at the symbolisms in the events of the past 20 years that have been identified by Christian doomers, and then those by Bill Gates, and the WEF. They are setting the date of the "End Times" to be this decade and bringing back many of those symbolisms from Roman Judea.

    You may say this is God working in mysterious ways. But there are billions who have never been adherents of Abrahamic religions, and will never be, and they have differing interpretations of histories, sometimes having an end point far in the horizon and sometimes having no beginning and end. We also have millions who have left the Abrahamic faiths while staying in their worldview, and seeing a far different utopia from the New Jerusalem Christians promise. Those innocents are being pulled into the self-inflicted termination of the Abrahamic religious world. Imagine the agony of Buddhists, Taoists and Confucians, and Hindus, and atheists who are forced to lose their future over such religious parochialism.

    Let the Confucian world last a myriad years for the Sinosphere. But failing that, "hear the Tao in the morning, and one can die contented in the evening".

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @AaronB

    Well, that sounds like I’m a Full Preterist, plus an Intentional (as in fulfillment) Futurist on Christian Eschatology. Quite an audacious view from a non-Christian East Asian.

  250. @Yellowface Anon
    I've been reading John Dee and the Empire of Angels and I need to say (esp. to those who see the Signs of the End Times in the Great Reset agenda): I'm no a Christian, but the best and the sole historical interpretation of the Revelations is the Preterist one. Unambiguously, the Apocalypse of John was written for contemporary audiences and contains an allegory of religio-political trends of 1st century Roman Judea, esp. the interactions between Roman and Jewish authority.

    It is only thru centuries of studies and exegesis, including countless and mainstream attempts in trying to project a eschatology into the future, was the symbolism and the expectation of a final redemption internalized. And historical actors of interest, likely unconsciously, have been infusing political and social movements with gradual realizations of the eschatological scenario, that cumulates in the bulk of modernist trends. The book has a lot of remarks that connect important historical events to the deliberate actions of persons heavily influenced by Christian eschatology, esp. John Dee and his role in the mystical-ideological foundation of the British Empire that has cumulated in the American hegemony and globalism. And look again at the symbolisms in the events of the past 20 years that have been identified by Christian doomers, and then those by Bill Gates, and the WEF. They are setting the date of the "End Times" to be this decade and bringing back many of those symbolisms from Roman Judea.

    You may say this is God working in mysterious ways. But there are billions who have never been adherents of Abrahamic religions, and will never be, and they have differing interpretations of h