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Plus ça change… Just like three years ago on March 26, 2017, the protest “Freedom to Navalny!” tomorrow is to start on Pushkin Square (see above) and march down the central Tverskaya Boulevard down to Manezh Square, which is right next to the Kremlin.

I attended that prior protest (as an informal observer, not a participants – though the distinction would have been theoretical had I been arrested), and confirmed for myself that the police estimate of ~7,500 was accurate:

The regime loyalist I was with estimated there were about 5,000 protesters. A guy with a Ukrainian flag lapel badge whom I asked for his opinion said 10,000. Taking the average estimate from supporters and detractors was a good strategy for estimating crowd size in 2011-12, and coincidentally enough, the resulting figure of 7,500 coincided exactly with the police estimate of 7,000-8,000 protesters. This is not altogether bad, thought quite insubstantial in a city of 12 million.

To be sure, this was an unsanctioned protest, and as I pointed out earlier, a lot of the risk-averse office plankton who form the bulk of Navalny’s support don’t turn up to such protests. They don’t want to run the risk of getting arrested, not when it could impact on their employment. Still, this is about 3x fewer participants than in the last big protest of the 2012 wave, which was also unsanctioned, the farcical “March of the Millions” of May 6 to which about 25,000 turned up.

Will there be more or fewer people now?

Certainly the events preceding this are much more dramatic – the poisoning of Navalny, direct accusations that this was attempted murder on Putler’s part, Navalny’s return to Russia on a sealed airplane, and a corruption investigation now targeting Putin himself (as opposed to his underlings). Certainly it is my impression from Le Reddit that Western normies, buoyed by the removal of Bad Orange Man, are expecting great things from this.

But in the world of reality, as opposed to wishful rhetoric, the best historical guide to how many people will come to these things is banally how many people say they will come on social media.

Here are the results for Moscow, which is ultimately the only part of the country that counts so far as “color revolution” risk is concerned.

Bolotnaya Protest in 2011 (the first one):

  • 33,000 on Facebook and 18,600 on VK said they’d come. (A further 10,000 and 27,000, respectively, said they are interested and/or might come).
  • Actual attendance: ~60,000 (~120% of expressed intent across the two platforms)

“Он нам не Димон” protest (2017, March):

  • The historical pages indicate 5,000 on Facebook (3,900 interested) and 7,100 on VK (2,500 interested).
  • Actual attendance: ~7,500 (~60%).

Constitution Day protest (2017, June):

Today, on the eve of “Freedom to Navalny!”:

  • 5,300 say they’re going on Facebook (9,700 interested) and 13,300 on VK (4,400 interested).
  • Actual attendance: ?

Naively extrapolating, this means that we should expect something like 20,000*60% or 120% = 12,000-24,000 people to turn up. There are, of course, divergences from this model that may favor greater turnout, lesser turnout, or have unclear effects.

Factors expected to decrease turnout:

  • The penalties for unsanctioned protests have been progressively stepped up over the past few years, increasing their costs for normies with jobs or at university. Incidentally, this also has the effect of age shifting protests towards young people and, increasingly, schoolchildren.
  • The most important difference is that the 2011 protest was legally sanctioned, which is not the case in either the 2017 one or nowso we should really privilege the ratio from 2017 as opposed to the one from 2011.
  • There are more Russians on social media – especially Facebook – now than in 2011, though this is partially balanced out by zoomers migrating to strange new platforms.

Factors expected to increase turnout:

  • The YouTube video about Putin’s palaces had already gotten about 3x the pageviews that the hit video on Dmitry Medvedev got in 2017 at the time of the protests (~60 million vs. ~20 million), suggesting greater public interest. However, this effect should be diluted by greater Russian familiarity with Navalny’s YouTube in 2021 (quintupling in subscriber numbers to 5 million), the highly dramatic events surrounding this “expose” of Putin’s corruption, and – especially – the much greater foreign interest expressed in it (it has been prominent on /r/worldnews for many days now).
  • Putin’s approval rating was 80% in 2017, versus 65% today (which is far closer to his approval rating in 2011-12, when it neared 60%). Conversely, though, whereas discontent was strongly concentrated in Moscow a decade ago, today it is more dispersed. In fact, with 1,000 prospective attendees on Facebook and 8,300 on VK, almost as many people (~75%) say they will turn up in Saint-Petersburg despite that city having just ~40% of Moscow’s population. (Rage over massive electoral falsifications was the primary driving force of the 2011-12 protest wave in Moscow).
  • Russian zoomers are much more oppositionist now than in 2017 (to say nothing of 2011), but they don’t hang out on Facebook or VK, but on newer platforms – most notably, TikTok. As such, attendance figures on boomer (>30 years) social media may not be capturing the protest potential in the youngest cohorts, who are also by far the most oppositionist.

Factors that have a neutral or unknown effect on turnout:

  • Coronavirus continues to rage in Russia, but there are no significant lockdowns and children are imminently returning to schools. So I don’t expect this to have a major effect.
  • Although Moscow was hit by a major cold speed the past week (-20C), the next few days are going to be much warmer, even sliding into positive territory. So weather won’t have an effect either.
  • Personal observation: Many of the same people from my “Friends” who attended in 2017 are attending now, though sample is very low – it’s not like I have many Navalnycore acquaintances. Notably, one zoomer liberal who attended in 2017 has drifted in a nationalist direction since then, and will not attend now.

Probably the factors that increase turnout are somewhat stronger than those that decrease, so if I had to pick a number, I’d say 15,000 as opposed to 5,000 will turn up.

Either way, it’s safe to say that it will still be much fewer than during the Bolotnaya protests of 2011-12. I also expect it to be even more loaded towards students and especially schoolchildren even relative to 2017.

But, needless to say, this is not “color revolution” territory.

Lukashenko survived in the aftermath of a completely falsified election with an approval rating of just 30% and with protests of 250,000 in a country with fewer people than Moscow.

Putin retains an approval rating of 65% in a country where half the population says that Navalny was either poisoned by Western intelligence services or was faking the entire thing vs. just 15% who believe it was Putin’s regime.

To get a color revolution I have always maintained that you need a split within the elites. A few thousand schoolchildren surrounded by throngs of foreign journalists aren’t going to get that ball rolling.

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. Calling this right now: you are way off. Wishful thinking on your part here. Real count will be several times higher. Also, it’s notable how you fell for primitive kremlin propaganda: neither the attendees of protests nor navalny’s audience consists of under 18s in any greater number than 10%. That is shown by youtube demographics and a survey of protest-goers.

    However, this narrative has long been pushed by the regime’s propaganda. Really goes to show how you discard the facts that don’t fit into your bubble and gulp up the stuff that confirms your biases. Sad!

  3. Obligatory note on Concerned [US?] citizen’s predictive record: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/navalny-complains-about-novichok-looksmaxxing-protocol/#comment-4346842

    Concerned citizen typed out some seethe on August 23, 2020: Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK's recent predictions that ended up being accurate. US elections down to a percent. Luka staying. No MAGA rebellion. Concerned Citizen on suicide watch.

  4. You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    • LOL: mal
    • Replies: @Ludwig
    @AlexanderGrozny


    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24
     
    Russia’s median age is >40.

    See
    https://www.indexmundi.com/russia/median_age.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
    , @Passer by
    @AlexanderGrozny


    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24
     
    You sound like bot and not like human. Too many stupid mistakes. : )
    , @Passer by
    @AlexanderGrozny

    And that bot is making identical comments on Karlin's Twitter : )

    , @128
    @AlexanderGrozny

    He may have a point? Russian real incomes are basically flat since 2014, that is seven years of flat real incomes with no prospect of changing in the near or medium term.

    , @Verymuchalive
    @AlexanderGrozny

    You perform the same function for Karlin as Tiny Duck performs for Steve Sailer, except nowhere near as amusing. You need to get into the role much better, start mangling the grammar and syntax. Dude, make us laugh !

  5. Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
    @mal

    Maybe, but what when the guards turn on their commanders like in 1917? The guards are people too, often younger people, and they are getting fed up.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @AnonfromTN
    @mal


    Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?
     
    It does not need to. Navalny will be able to mobilize as many people as Trump only when the Hell freezes over.
    , @Bashibuzuk
    @mal

    No but they mobilized the OMON to arrest a shaman who was traveling from Siberia to exorcise Putin.

    https://lenta.ru/news/2020/05/30/shaman/

    Alexander Gabyshev believed that Putin was the embodiment of evil that is stiffening Russian people. He was a Shaman and decided to exercise this evil from the Kremlin. To that he wanted to dance and sing on the Res Square. He was arrested and put in mandating psychiatric treatment.

    And yeah, everywhere he went thousands of people joined him, Orthodox, Atheist...

    Thousands felt much the same as Sasha Gabyshev. That's because he was a real Shaman, not a fake one like the Capitol DC poser.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

  6. @mal
    Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @AnonfromTN, @Bashibuzuk

    Maybe, but what when the guards turn on their commanders like in 1917? The guards are people too, often younger people, and they are getting fed up.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Is it nice being 19?

  7. @AlexanderGrozny
    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    Replies: @Ludwig, @Passer by, @Passer by, @128, @Verymuchalive

    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24

    Russia’s median age is >40.

    See
    https://www.indexmundi.com/russia/median_age.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

  8. @AlexanderGrozny
    @mal

    Maybe, but what when the guards turn on their commanders like in 1917? The guards are people too, often younger people, and they are getting fed up.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Is it nice being 19?

  9. @AlexanderGrozny
    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    Replies: @Ludwig, @Passer by, @Passer by, @128, @Verymuchalive

    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24

    You sound like bot and not like human. Too many stupid mistakes. : )

  10. @AlexanderGrozny
    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    Replies: @Ludwig, @Passer by, @Passer by, @128, @Verymuchalive

    And that bot is making identical comments on Karlin’s Twitter : )

  11. @Anatoly Karlin
    Obligatory note on Concerned [US?] citizen's predictive record: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/navalny-complains-about-novichok-looksmaxxing-protocol/#comment-4346842

    Concerned citizen typed out some seethe on August 23, 2020: Some hardcore delusion right there. I cant even imagine how hard Mr. Karlin will cope and seethe after the same happens in russia in the coming few years. Until the very final day he will squirm and wiggle: “noooo the protesters are done, putin will destroy them”. LOL

    As for Luka, he is finished.
     

    Replies: @Dreadilk

    AK’s recent predictions that ended up being accurate. US elections down to a percent. Luka staying. No MAGA rebellion. Concerned Citizen on suicide watch.

  12. age shifting protests towards young people and, increasingly, schoolchildren.

    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers. But you shouldn’t blame hapless puppet for it. The blame is squarely on its puppet-masters in CIA/MI6/Mossad. They should hire more creative people to make the messages of their puppets appealing.

    • Replies: @216
    @AnonfromTN


    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.
     
    You may jest, but that's a good descriptor of the American far-right.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  13. @mal
    Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @AnonfromTN, @Bashibuzuk

    Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?

    It does not need to. Navalny will be able to mobilize as many people as Trump only when the Hell freezes over.

    • Disagree: AlexanderGrozny
  14. @AnonfromTN

    age shifting protests towards young people and, increasingly, schoolchildren.
     
    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers. But you shouldn’t blame hapless puppet for it. The blame is squarely on its puppet-masters in CIA/MI6/Mossad. They should hire more creative people to make the messages of their puppets appealing.

    Replies: @216

    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.

    You may jest, but that’s a good descriptor of the American far-right.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @216


    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.
    You may jest, but that’s a good descriptor of the American far-right.
     
    Do you mean to say that American far right has the same paymasters and scriptwriters as Navalny clown? That would explain quite a lot.

    Replies: @Jazman

  15. In America, the pattern since at least the 20th century has been that rioting only occurs during the summer (occassionally localized rioting after sports championships).

    Trump changed, that, delivering not only the first “white riot” in a generation, but also the first winter riot.

    Do weather conditions affect the dispersal of chemical agents?

    • Replies: @Ludwig
    @216

    There have been pretty much non-stop protesting often devolving into rioting by the mostly white Antifa groups in Seattle and Portland. The coverage of these riots have been muted in the mainstream with one of the only journos meticulously covering these riots being targeted as a “far right fascist” (see https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo) for the simple act of reporting these events.

    Twitter took no action to ban Antifa groups till a couple of days ago (ie after Biden was sworn in) and there was a riot where Antifa smashed some stuff (as they have been for months) including the original Starbucks in Seattle with slogans denouncing Biden (as well as Trump as they were doing for months).

    Then they swiftly banned them. https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1352399672594345985

  16. @mal
    Can Russia deploy 25,000 National Guard to Moscow to protect Democracy from Viking Shaman?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @AnonfromTN, @Bashibuzuk

    No but they mobilized the OMON to arrest a shaman who was traveling from Siberia to exorcise Putin.

    https://lenta.ru/news/2020/05/30/shaman/

    Alexander Gabyshev believed that Putin was the embodiment of evil that is stiffening Russian people. He was a Shaman and decided to exercise this evil from the Kremlin. To that he wanted to dance and sing on the Res Square. He was arrested and put in mandating psychiatric treatment.

    And yeah, everywhere he went thousands of people joined him, Orthodox, Atheist…

    Thousands felt much the same as Sasha Gabyshev. That’s because he was a real Shaman, not a fake one like the Capitol DC poser.

    • Thanks: mal
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @Bashibuzuk

    “A real shaman.” Right.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

  17. @AlexanderGrozny
    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    Replies: @Ludwig, @Passer by, @Passer by, @128, @Verymuchalive

    He may have a point? Russian real incomes are basically flat since 2014, that is seven years of flat real incomes with no prospect of changing in the near or medium term.

    • Agree: AlexanderGrozny
  18. Early indications from the east makes me think it’s going to be quite a bit bigger than you’re expecting.

    One thing I think you’re missing is the bent up energy factor from not being able to go out as much during COVID. And also the riot images from BLM and the storming of the capitol subconsciously might cause people to want to mimetically copy.

  19. @216
    In America, the pattern since at least the 20th century has been that rioting only occurs during the summer (occassionally localized rioting after sports championships).

    Trump changed, that, delivering not only the first "white riot" in a generation, but also the first winter riot.

    Do weather conditions affect the dispersal of chemical agents?

    Replies: @Ludwig

    There have been pretty much non-stop protesting often devolving into rioting by the mostly white Antifa groups in Seattle and Portland. The coverage of these riots have been muted in the mainstream with one of the only journos meticulously covering these riots being targeted as a “far right fascist” (see https://mobile.twitter.com/MrAndyNgo) for the simple act of reporting these events.

    Twitter took no action to ban Antifa groups till a couple of days ago (ie after Biden was sworn in) and there was a riot where Antifa smashed some stuff (as they have been for months) including the original Starbucks in Seattle with slogans denouncing Biden (as well as Trump as they were doing for months).

    Then they swiftly banned them. https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1352399672594345985

  20. In analyzing this whole saga in which the US Empire is gleefully backing legitimate dissent in Russia not out of principle but to act against their geopolitical enemy, it seems one needs to define the framework of what “winning” and “losing” is to begin with.

    If “winning” is ensuring that the Kremlin maintains a hold on power for the next N years with “losing” being an overthrow of the regime, then it is quite likely that the Kremlin will “win”.

    If “winning” is ensuring a steady delegitimization of the ruling regime, demoralization of the populace, destabilization of the federal Union, then the Empire seems to be achieving its goal.

    Ultimately the issue within any country whether a fascist or communist dictatorship, monarchy or a liberal “democracy” is an implicit covenant between key constituents – a mixture of elites, the general population in varying proportion depending on the country – and the ruling authorities whereby the arrangement works for them. Once it stops working, then discontent is the norm in which a final trigger may result in a cascade effect leading to radical change.

    The Kremlin whether due its own internal policies and systemic corruption or due to external sanctions designed to hobble Russia (after all the Gulf States are clearly more autocratic then what Russia is accused of let alone really is, but have thrived thanks to full support and integration into the Western led financial order), or a mixture, has failed to accelerate economic growth over the last few years leading to a stagnation in economic well-being. That’s an objective fact accepted by even the Kremlin.

    The Kremlin has also not had a clear plan to deal with Navalny: either let him stand, or make laws in which actions – for example working with Western Govs to sanction Russians – are treated as “insurrection” (eg what the US is now trying to do) with long jail terms. Whatever the truth of the poisoning, Navalny’s arrival back in Russia, carefully planned to coincide with Biden Admin’s taking power, with a video directly attacking Putin and all the western propaganda power be find it, was not expected. (Most pro-Kremlin or even realism based commentators seem to have had written off Navalny as someone who would be in permanent exile and would fade into oblivion.)

    So whatever the numbers today, just the fact that the Kremlin trying its best to cut off all avenues of protest rather than have the confidence that not much would happen, means that as per the second framework, the Kremlin is losing.

    If the Kremlin succeeds in getting over the protests without too much of a PR hit (even within Russia let alone outside), escape impact of new sanctions, control COVID and accelerate tangibly impactful growth in a short period of time, then the Kremlin has a chance to at least turn the tide.

    But it’s a huge uphill climb.

    • Replies: @JL
    @Ludwig

    Your thoughtful and measured comments are always highly appreciated. I believe there are a couple of dynamics here that you didn't take into account. First of all, strict monetary and budgetary policy on behalf of the Kremlin was specifically designed as a way to counter sanctions, essentially turning Russia into a financial fortress. The cost of stagnating economic growth, of course, was high. But Russians, on the whole, understand that there is a tradeoff involved between their own well being and Russia being a great power able to defend her interests.

    What's also different now, as opposed to 5-10 years ago, is that Russia is more prepared and practiced at dealing with domestic insurrections. Furthermore, the US is now faced with domestic political instability of its own, which weakens its moral case and soft power abilities. The capitol storming, heavy handed overreaction and big tech censorship have made a huge impression on the populaces of other countries.

    Finally, the other major development over the past five years is the ratcheting up of tensions with China, which leaves the US empire overstretched. This has emboldened Russia to crackdown on the empire's stooges and it leaves the US with much less room to maneuver. I suspect this is the opposition's one last hurrah for quite a while.

  21. What exactly are they protesting for, to be more like Europe, where they could expect 18 months of on and off house arrest and wrecked earning potential in order to save boomers? A good proportion of Russians in my social circle who were sort-of pro Navalny have been utterly turned by this and learned to stop worrying and love the bald one, some living in Europe and the UK have ripped up their residence cards, packed their bags and gone home permanently (A few have gone the opposite way, a ratio of about 2:1).

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    It seems to me that it's pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of "the West" as a whole.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

  22. @Ludwig
    In analyzing this whole saga in which the US Empire is gleefully backing legitimate dissent in Russia not out of principle but to act against their geopolitical enemy, it seems one needs to define the framework of what “winning” and “losing” is to begin with.

    If “winning” is ensuring that the Kremlin maintains a hold on power for the next N years with “losing” being an overthrow of the regime, then it is quite likely that the Kremlin will “win”.

    If “winning” is ensuring a steady delegitimization of the ruling regime, demoralization of the populace, destabilization of the federal Union, then the Empire seems to be achieving its goal.

    Ultimately the issue within any country whether a fascist or communist dictatorship, monarchy or a liberal “democracy” is an implicit covenant between key constituents - a mixture of elites, the general population in varying proportion depending on the country - and the ruling authorities whereby the arrangement works for them. Once it stops working, then discontent is the norm in which a final trigger may result in a cascade effect leading to radical change.

    The Kremlin whether due its own internal policies and systemic corruption or due to external sanctions designed to hobble Russia (after all the Gulf States are clearly more autocratic then what Russia is accused of let alone really is, but have thrived thanks to full support and integration into the Western led financial order), or a mixture, has failed to accelerate economic growth over the last few years leading to a stagnation in economic well-being. That’s an objective fact accepted by even the Kremlin.

    The Kremlin has also not had a clear plan to deal with Navalny: either let him stand, or make laws in which actions - for example working with Western Govs to sanction Russians - are treated as “insurrection” (eg what the US is now trying to do) with long jail terms. Whatever the truth of the poisoning, Navalny’s arrival back in Russia, carefully planned to coincide with Biden Admin’s taking power, with a video directly attacking Putin and all the western propaganda power be find it, was not expected. (Most pro-Kremlin or even realism based commentators seem to have had written off Navalny as someone who would be in permanent exile and would fade into oblivion.)

    So whatever the numbers today, just the fact that the Kremlin trying its best to cut off all avenues of protest rather than have the confidence that not much would happen, means that as per the second framework, the Kremlin is losing.

    If the Kremlin succeeds in getting over the protests without too much of a PR hit (even within Russia let alone outside), escape impact of new sanctions, control COVID and accelerate tangibly impactful growth in a short period of time, then the Kremlin has a chance to at least turn the tide.

    But it’s a huge uphill climb.

    Replies: @JL

    Your thoughtful and measured comments are always highly appreciated. I believe there are a couple of dynamics here that you didn’t take into account. First of all, strict monetary and budgetary policy on behalf of the Kremlin was specifically designed as a way to counter sanctions, essentially turning Russia into a financial fortress. The cost of stagnating economic growth, of course, was high. But Russians, on the whole, understand that there is a tradeoff involved between their own well being and Russia being a great power able to defend her interests.

    What’s also different now, as opposed to 5-10 years ago, is that Russia is more prepared and practiced at dealing with domestic insurrections. Furthermore, the US is now faced with domestic political instability of its own, which weakens its moral case and soft power abilities. The capitol storming, heavy handed overreaction and big tech censorship have made a huge impression on the populaces of other countries.

    Finally, the other major development over the past five years is the ratcheting up of tensions with China, which leaves the US empire overstretched. This has emboldened Russia to crackdown on the empire’s stooges and it leaves the US with much less room to maneuver. I suspect this is the opposition’s one last hurrah for quite a while.

  23. Useful thread.

    Looks like 0.2% of urban population turnout in the Far East. So, as expected, above NeDimon, below Bolotnaya.

  24. #онижедети

  25. @AlexanderGrozny
    You have to remember that Russia has a very young population on average, with a median age of just 24. By comparison, the ageing boomers who run Russia are seen as out of touch by most Russians. Given the low economic prospects and low standard of living that most people over there have, this is a country which is ripe for an Arab spring style revolt and perhaps a civil war.

    Replies: @Ludwig, @Passer by, @Passer by, @128, @Verymuchalive

    You perform the same function for Karlin as Tiny Duck performs for Steve Sailer, except nowhere near as amusing. You need to get into the role much better, start mangling the grammar and syntax. Dude, make us laugh !

  26. Russian involvement in Capitol Storm confirmed.

  27. • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It's not easy to protest when you arrested as soon as you show up. People began being arrested even before the manifestation, just because they were near the planned manifestation spot.

    OTOH, ridiculous if true:

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/el_murid/16552936/1665116/1665116_original.jpg

    People write about Nats Guard armoured vehicles moving into Moscow.

    It's the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country, even in Irkutsk, where it is so cold in the streets (-50°C) people still manifested in front of the townhall.

    Anyway, nobody expects any color revolution in Russia, Putin will be pushed to the exit by the elites and Navalny and his friends are just tools. But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin's "stability", just like they got fed up with Brezhnev's stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    Although in Brezhnev's times USSR had many things it could brag about (space program, military industrial complex, scientific prowess, a highly successful sports organization), while modern day Russia has much lower achievements. For both Brezhnev's and Putin's regimes the onsequences will be similar. That is if Putin is not replaced ASAP by a younger, more ambitious and more competent leader.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN

  28. @g2k
    What exactly are they protesting for, to be more like Europe, where they could expect 18 months of on and off house arrest and wrecked earning potential in order to save boomers? A good proportion of Russians in my social circle who were sort-of pro Navalny have been utterly turned by this and learned to stop worrying and love the bald one, some living in Europe and the UK have ripped up their residence cards, packed their bags and gone home permanently (A few have gone the opposite way, a ratio of about 2:1).

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    It seems to me that it’s pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of “the West” as a whole.

    • Replies: @g2k
    @Europe Europa

    I think you're right about the US, with a few exceptions, but there rest of Europe is considerably more draconian, though the duration might eventually be less. In England, there's no 18:00 curfews, outdoor mask mandates or exercise bans, and, at least here, if you're ever harassed by the police for being outside "I am going to get food" will get rid of them. Russia, by contrast, has delagated the response to regional governors with "Anna Popova", their equivalent of Fauci, strongly suggesting to them what it ought to be; afaik this is mainly cancelled mass events, indoor mask mandates and nightclub closures. They've been reporting 27(+/-2)k cases a day since November which is implausible and means someone high up, who knows the true figure, has decided to release BS ones and browbeat the media into compliance in order to keep things open at a cost of more deaths. The Russian youth have considerably more freedom than anywhere else in Europe at the minute and the government have gone out on a limb to make it so, so having a "23rdJanuaryForFreedom" is a textbook example of them biting the hand that feeds them. If that clown was still in Germany he'd be under house arrest anyway, along with all other Germans, so I don't know what they're complaining about.

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Europe Europa

    Not correct about the US, unfortunately. The great majority of States still have quite the police-state apparatus and measures in place due to the “pandemic” hysteria.

    Our first and fourth most populous States (CA and NY) are still locked down pretty severely, especially California where we live (which itself accounts for nearly one of every 8 US residents).

  29. @Anatoly Karlin
    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1352951972907929600

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    It’s not easy to protest when you arrested as soon as you show up. People began being arrested even before the manifestation, just because they were near the planned manifestation spot.

    OTOH, ridiculous if true:

    People write about Nats Guard armoured vehicles moving into Moscow.

    It’s the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country, even in Irkutsk, where it is so cold in the streets (-50°C) people still manifested in front of the townhall.

    Anyway, nobody expects any color revolution in Russia, Putin will be pushed to the exit by the elites and Navalny and his friends are just tools. But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    Although in Brezhnev’s times USSR had many things it could brag about (space program, military industrial complex, scientific prowess, a highly successful sports organization), while modern day Russia has much lower achievements. For both Brezhnev’s and Putin’s regimes the onsequences will be similar. That is if Putin is not replaced ASAP by a younger, more ambitious and more competent leader.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Bashibuzuk

    A great analysis by the Stalinist blogger Colonel Cassad (Boris Rozhin) in Russian:

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6496603.html

    Although Boris is a staunch supporter of Stalinism, while I am far from being a fan of Stalin and Beria, there is nothing I could disagree with in this specific case. One can see that author understands what is going on.

    Replies: @Dreadilk

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Bashibuzuk


    It’s the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country...
     
    This is literally what happened in 2017 too.

    Furthermore, some regional protests - most notably and recently, the Khabarovsk ones over Furgal - were MUCH larger than the ones over Navalny. Up to 50k came out for Furgal (in a city of 600k), now - 2 OOM's fewer: https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1352892352747204609

    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.
     
    They were fed up by stability in 2011-12. Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler.

    For both Brezhnev’s and Putin’s regimes the on sequences will be similar.
     
    The problem with the Soviet system is that it's late products drank their own Kool-Aid. As Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the "last man" of Soviet history: https://vz.ru/opinions/2019/2/14/964180.html

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @RadicalCenter

    , @AnonFromTN
    @Bashibuzuk


    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.
     
    There was Soviet joke about that. Here it goes:
    Soviet scientists invented a time machine. Brezhnev wanted to test it first. They asked: where do you want to go, to the past of to the bright future? He answers: of course, to the bright future. He went, and after a while returned.
    - How was it?
    - I’ve learned that we live in the dark period of stagnation. However, when I wanted to return, they all rushed to my time machine. I barely escaped.
  30. @Bashibuzuk
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It's not easy to protest when you arrested as soon as you show up. People began being arrested even before the manifestation, just because they were near the planned manifestation spot.

    OTOH, ridiculous if true:

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/el_murid/16552936/1665116/1665116_original.jpg

    People write about Nats Guard armoured vehicles moving into Moscow.

    It's the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country, even in Irkutsk, where it is so cold in the streets (-50°C) people still manifested in front of the townhall.

    Anyway, nobody expects any color revolution in Russia, Putin will be pushed to the exit by the elites and Navalny and his friends are just tools. But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin's "stability", just like they got fed up with Brezhnev's stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    Although in Brezhnev's times USSR had many things it could brag about (space program, military industrial complex, scientific prowess, a highly successful sports organization), while modern day Russia has much lower achievements. For both Brezhnev's and Putin's regimes the onsequences will be similar. That is if Putin is not replaced ASAP by a younger, more ambitious and more competent leader.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN

    A great analysis by the Stalinist blogger Colonel Cassad (Boris Rozhin) in Russian:

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6496603.html

    Although Boris is a staunch supporter of Stalinism, while I am far from being a fan of Stalin and Beria, there is nothing I could disagree with in this specific case. One can see that author understands what is going on.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Bashibuzuk

    I like Cassad too. And starting to like Stalin more, specifically for the purges.

    Anyways I skimmed through the big post of yours and have to disagree on Russia doing worse than RFSSR. Russia is starting and a much harder position and as such has to have it's score multiplied.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

  31. @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    It seems to me that it's pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of "the West" as a whole.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

    I think you’re right about the US, with a few exceptions, but there rest of Europe is considerably more draconian, though the duration might eventually be less. In England, there’s no 18:00 curfews, outdoor mask mandates or exercise bans, and, at least here, if you’re ever harassed by the police for being outside “I am going to get food” will get rid of them. Russia, by contrast, has delagated the response to regional governors with “Anna Popova”, their equivalent of Fauci, strongly suggesting to them what it ought to be; afaik this is mainly cancelled mass events, indoor mask mandates and nightclub closures. They’ve been reporting 27(+/-2)k cases a day since November which is implausible and means someone high up, who knows the true figure, has decided to release BS ones and browbeat the media into compliance in order to keep things open at a cost of more deaths. The Russian youth have considerably more freedom than anywhere else in Europe at the minute and the government have gone out on a limb to make it so, so having a “23rdJanuaryForFreedom” is a textbook example of them biting the hand that feeds them. If that clown was still in Germany he’d be under house arrest anyway, along with all other Germans, so I don’t know what they’re complaining about.

  32. @Bashibuzuk
    @Bashibuzuk

    A great analysis by the Stalinist blogger Colonel Cassad (Boris Rozhin) in Russian:

    https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6496603.html

    Although Boris is a staunch supporter of Stalinism, while I am far from being a fan of Stalin and Beria, there is nothing I could disagree with in this specific case. One can see that author understands what is going on.

    Replies: @Dreadilk

    I like Cassad too. And starting to like Stalin more, specifically for the purges.

    Anyways I skimmed through the big post of yours and have to disagree on Russia doing worse than RFSSR. Russia is starting and a much harder position and as such has to have it’s score multiplied.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Dreadilk

    USSR started at the lowest possible position, in 1918 it was a nonentity. Post Soviet Russia had it not so bad. It's just that hedonistic elites do not build strong countries. For all his sins and crimes, Stalin had one strong side: personal courage. Also, he valued power more than wealth and comfort. This is what a leader must always be : a courageous, cunning and ruthless type with an outstanding power instinct. Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Ho Chih Minh even Castro come close to this ideal machiavellian Prince. Putin is not even competing. He's a smurf compared to these great Tyrants of yore.

    https://m.dw.com/image/50369791_401.jpg

    🙂

    Replies: @Passer by

  33. most notably, TikTok.

    Is tiktok really a hotbed of insurrection? I’m not even sure how it could be, the videos seem to have a time limit of about 30seconds and 99% of the content appears to be dancing, and lip syncing to music and lines in films. I’d have thought it’d breed apathy and insularity more than anything else. Is this just a case of politically indifferent people giving an opinion when prompted for one without really caring?

    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it’s a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @g2k


    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it’s a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.
     
    The domestic version of TikTok (Douyin) is kept separate from the international version, this is the reason.
  34. @Bashibuzuk
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It's not easy to protest when you arrested as soon as you show up. People began being arrested even before the manifestation, just because they were near the planned manifestation spot.

    OTOH, ridiculous if true:

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/el_murid/16552936/1665116/1665116_original.jpg

    People write about Nats Guard armoured vehicles moving into Moscow.

    It's the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country, even in Irkutsk, where it is so cold in the streets (-50°C) people still manifested in front of the townhall.

    Anyway, nobody expects any color revolution in Russia, Putin will be pushed to the exit by the elites and Navalny and his friends are just tools. But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin's "stability", just like they got fed up with Brezhnev's stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    Although in Brezhnev's times USSR had many things it could brag about (space program, military industrial complex, scientific prowess, a highly successful sports organization), while modern day Russia has much lower achievements. For both Brezhnev's and Putin's regimes the onsequences will be similar. That is if Putin is not replaced ASAP by a younger, more ambitious and more competent leader.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN

    It’s the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country…

    This is literally what happened in 2017 too.

    Furthermore, some regional protests – most notably and recently, the Khabarovsk ones over Furgal – were MUCH larger than the ones over Navalny. Up to 50k came out for Furgal (in a city of 600k), now – 2 OOM’s fewer: https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1352892352747204609

    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    They were fed up by stability in 2011-12. Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler.

    For both Brezhnev’s and Putin’s regimes the on sequences will be similar.

    The problem with the Soviet system is that it’s late products drank their own Kool-Aid. As Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the “last man” of Soviet history: https://vz.ru/opinions/2019/2/14/964180.html

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler
     
    It's too late, they should have taken the whole of Donbass and Odessa region in 2014. But then Burkhalter was sent to talk to Putin (probably about seizing all Roldugin's cellos and all Rotenberg's bridges) and Putin blinked. He could have become Vovchik the Great, but instead he chose to become Pynia the gray.

    https://www.rferl.org/amp/ukraine-russia-referendum-putin-postponement/25376616.html

    Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the “last man” of Soviet history:
     
    You know what Krylov wrote about Kholmogorov a few weeks before he died? Krylov knew Kholmogorov very well and I highly value Krylov's opinions on nearly any subject. Basically Krylov wrote that Kholmogorov was a sold out.

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

     

    Cynicism is needed, but when added to hedonism it makes you weak. Also a true cynic must also have a vertical / transcendental dimension. Otherwise he's not even a dog barking at the moon, but a pig unable to look at the stars.
    , @RadicalCenter
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Are Russia and Belarus likely to finally consummate the union-state anytime soon? Would that give him and his crew a boost in public support due to national pride for at least a few years?

    Couldn’t Putin score a public-opinion coup among most Belarussians, too, by forcing Lukashenko to step down (retire comfortably somewhere else in the RF) in favor of a somewhat less corrupt Kremlin-picked successor AND allowing more genuine local autonomy?

    Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus.

    Also, would Belarussian pensioners receive a bit higher benefits under RF law than they currently receive? It might still be paltry, but a noticeable increase is an increase still.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Corvinus

  35. @Dreadilk
    @Bashibuzuk

    I like Cassad too. And starting to like Stalin more, specifically for the purges.

    Anyways I skimmed through the big post of yours and have to disagree on Russia doing worse than RFSSR. Russia is starting and a much harder position and as such has to have it's score multiplied.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    USSR started at the lowest possible position, in 1918 it was a nonentity. Post Soviet Russia had it not so bad. It’s just that hedonistic elites do not build strong countries. For all his sins and crimes, Stalin had one strong side: personal courage. Also, he valued power more than wealth and comfort. This is what a leader must always be : a courageous, cunning and ruthless type with an outstanding power instinct. Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Ho Chih Minh even Castro come close to this ideal machiavellian Prince. Putin is not even competing. He’s a smurf compared to these great Tyrants of yore.

    🙂

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Bashibuzuk

    Actually Russia just beated the Soviet Union on nuclear power production, oil production, ship domestication of production (USSR had to purchase many ships abroad), grain production, wagon production, and agricultural exports, so i will give him that. Compared to Eltsin times he is a significant improvement. But more is needed since Russia is under external attack, and currently it isn't doing that great (its opponents US and EU are in relative decline, but Russia is in relative decline too).

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

  36. @Bashibuzuk
    @Dreadilk

    USSR started at the lowest possible position, in 1918 it was a nonentity. Post Soviet Russia had it not so bad. It's just that hedonistic elites do not build strong countries. For all his sins and crimes, Stalin had one strong side: personal courage. Also, he valued power more than wealth and comfort. This is what a leader must always be : a courageous, cunning and ruthless type with an outstanding power instinct. Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Ho Chih Minh even Castro come close to this ideal machiavellian Prince. Putin is not even competing. He's a smurf compared to these great Tyrants of yore.

    https://m.dw.com/image/50369791_401.jpg

    🙂

    Replies: @Passer by

    Actually Russia just beated the Soviet Union on nuclear power production, oil production, ship domestication of production (USSR had to purchase many ships abroad), grain production, wagon production, and agricultural exports, so i will give him that. Compared to Eltsin times he is a significant improvement. But more is needed since Russia is under external attack, and currently it isn’t doing that great (its opponents US and EU are in relative decline, but Russia is in relative decline too).

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Passer by


    Compared to Eltsin times he is a significant improvement
     
    Being better than Bor'ka alkash is easy.
  37. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Bashibuzuk


    It’s the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country...
     
    This is literally what happened in 2017 too.

    Furthermore, some regional protests - most notably and recently, the Khabarovsk ones over Furgal - were MUCH larger than the ones over Navalny. Up to 50k came out for Furgal (in a city of 600k), now - 2 OOM's fewer: https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1352892352747204609

    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.
     
    They were fed up by stability in 2011-12. Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler.

    For both Brezhnev’s and Putin’s regimes the on sequences will be similar.
     
    The problem with the Soviet system is that it's late products drank their own Kool-Aid. As Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the "last man" of Soviet history: https://vz.ru/opinions/2019/2/14/964180.html

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @RadicalCenter

    Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler

    It’s too late, they should have taken the whole of Donbass and Odessa region in 2014. But then Burkhalter was sent to talk to Putin (probably about seizing all Roldugin’s cellos and all Rotenberg’s bridges) and Putin blinked. He could have become Vovchik the Great, but instead he chose to become Pynia the gray.

    https://www.rferl.org/amp/ukraine-russia-referendum-putin-postponement/25376616.html

    Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the “last man” of Soviet history:

    You know what Krylov wrote about Kholmogorov a few weeks before he died? Krylov knew Kholmogorov very well and I highly value Krylov’s opinions on nearly any subject. Basically Krylov wrote that Kholmogorov was a sold out.

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

    Cynicism is needed, but when added to hedonism it makes you weak. Also a true cynic must also have a vertical / transcendental dimension. Otherwise he’s not even a dog barking at the moon, but a pig unable to look at the stars.

  38. @Passer by
    @Bashibuzuk

    Actually Russia just beated the Soviet Union on nuclear power production, oil production, ship domestication of production (USSR had to purchase many ships abroad), grain production, wagon production, and agricultural exports, so i will give him that. Compared to Eltsin times he is a significant improvement. But more is needed since Russia is under external attack, and currently it isn't doing that great (its opponents US and EU are in relative decline, but Russia is in relative decline too).

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    Compared to Eltsin times he is a significant improvement

    Being better than Bor’ka alkash is easy.

  39. @Bashibuzuk
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It's not easy to protest when you arrested as soon as you show up. People began being arrested even before the manifestation, just because they were near the planned manifestation spot.

    OTOH, ridiculous if true:

    https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/el_murid/16552936/1665116/1665116_original.jpg

    People write about Nats Guard armoured vehicles moving into Moscow.

    It's the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country, even in Irkutsk, where it is so cold in the streets (-50°C) people still manifested in front of the townhall.

    Anyway, nobody expects any color revolution in Russia, Putin will be pushed to the exit by the elites and Navalny and his friends are just tools. But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin's "stability", just like they got fed up with Brezhnev's stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    Although in Brezhnev's times USSR had many things it could brag about (space program, military industrial complex, scientific prowess, a highly successful sports organization), while modern day Russia has much lower achievements. For both Brezhnev's and Putin's regimes the onsequences will be similar. That is if Putin is not replaced ASAP by a younger, more ambitious and more competent leader.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Anatoly Karlin, @AnonFromTN

    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.

    There was Soviet joke about that. Here it goes:
    Soviet scientists invented a time machine. Brezhnev wanted to test it first. They asked: where do you want to go, to the past of to the bright future? He answers: of course, to the bright future. He went, and after a while returned.
    – How was it?
    – I’ve learned that we live in the dark period of stagnation. However, when I wanted to return, they all rushed to my time machine. I barely escaped.

    • LOL: Bashibuzuk
  40. @g2k

    most notably, TikTok.
     
    Is tiktok really a hotbed of insurrection? I'm not even sure how it could be, the videos seem to have a time limit of about 30seconds and 99% of the content appears to be dancing, and lip syncing to music and lines in films. I'd have thought it'd breed apathy and insularity more than anything else. Is this just a case of politically indifferent people giving an opinion when prompted for one without really caring?

    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it's a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.

    Replies: @Hyperborean

    The other odd thing about tiktok is that it’s a Chinese app, but mainlanders are the only nationality not on it in large numbers.

    The domestic version of TikTok (Douyin) is kept separate from the international version, this is the reason.

  41. I tend to agree with John Helmer which presents a compelling case for prosecuting Navalny as a traitor under the section 275 of Russia’s criminal code: http://johnhelmer.net/swedish-laboratory-stockholm-court-confirm-alexei-navalny-prepared-nato-secrets-adding-evidence-for-treason-indictment-in-russian-court/

    I have done my military service and I have a very good idea how big a company of about 110 people looks like. All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000. Karlin’s simple attempt of producing the average between pro-Navalny/anti-Navaly estimates is flawed from the beginning because in neither case we have an assessment of how well those people can estimate the size of a crowd.

    Also, a very serious person can really take some of those pictures taken from above, magnify, count the heads on various portions with different densities and then get a total estimate for the entire area, stratified by density of people.

    Also, the revolution or overturn of a government will happen only when the police, security, and military forces (troops and leadership) will go for it in toto or in high proportion. See Venezuela as a present example, or Belarus, or even Bolivia. After the coup in 2019 and the actions taken by the military, the troops formed mostly from indigenous people were seething with resentment. This is why a second coup following the 2020 election was not possible and the perpetrators from 2019 run for cover.

    I really don’t know what happened in Ukraine in 2014, because I am convince that a full deployment of military police, same as done against Yellow Vests in France, would have cleaned the Maidan square in a couple of hours.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Kouroi


    All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000.
     
    Even the Moscow police put turnout at 4,000, LOL.

    ***

    15,000 at the height of the protest according to White Counter. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2778858-echo.html

    This indeed translates to perhaps 20,000 who passed through. My prediction of 15,000 was, yet again, very close to perfect.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Kouroi

  42. @Kouroi
    I tend to agree with John Helmer which presents a compelling case for prosecuting Navalny as a traitor under the section 275 of Russia's criminal code: http://johnhelmer.net/swedish-laboratory-stockholm-court-confirm-alexei-navalny-prepared-nato-secrets-adding-evidence-for-treason-indictment-in-russian-court/

    I have done my military service and I have a very good idea how big a company of about 110 people looks like. All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000. Karlin's simple attempt of producing the average between pro-Navalny/anti-Navaly estimates is flawed from the beginning because in neither case we have an assessment of how well those people can estimate the size of a crowd.

    Also, a very serious person can really take some of those pictures taken from above, magnify, count the heads on various portions with different densities and then get a total estimate for the entire area, stratified by density of people.

    Also, the revolution or overturn of a government will happen only when the police, security, and military forces (troops and leadership) will go for it in toto or in high proportion. See Venezuela as a present example, or Belarus, or even Bolivia. After the coup in 2019 and the actions taken by the military, the troops formed mostly from indigenous people were seething with resentment. This is why a second coup following the 2020 election was not possible and the perpetrators from 2019 run for cover.

    I really don't know what happened in Ukraine in 2014, because I am convince that a full deployment of military police, same as done against Yellow Vests in France, would have cleaned the Maidan square in a couple of hours.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000.

    Even the Moscow police put turnout at 4,000, LOL.

    ***

    15,000 at the height of the protest according to White Counter. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2778858-echo.html

    This indeed translates to perhaps 20,000 who passed through. My prediction of 15,000 was, yet again, very close to perfect.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Still, this happens on an illegal protest where people can lose their jobs and place in university, etc.

    Economy needs to be fixed (Russia can inrease debt to finance infrastructure), the corruption should be decreased ASAP, and IT souveregnity must be further encouraged. Import substitution must be increased, and economy reoriented towards Asia. People to people exchanges also towards Asia. Etc.

    It is also possible that Russia's youth degeneration issue could be related to widespread single motherhood, studies have shown that they and their children are more likely to be liberal.

    Family values need to be encouraged and divorces for people with young children made harder.

    I said many times, one must fix their own house before they engage in geopolitical games with the strongest players in the world, who have some of the best minds working on their side. The West is stronger than many think, even though it is declining. But Russia is in relative decline too.

    The West's current game with Navalny was pretty good. It was all engineered from the beginning. A russian reaction must follow.

    , @Kouroi
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I haven't seen pictures from above in Moscow and provided estimates for what I have seen. )ne hundred people can make half a soccer field look preety packed if distributed about, so for 4000 people one would need about 20 soccer fields with same density overall.

    Replies: @Passer by

  43. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Kouroi


    All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000.
     
    Even the Moscow police put turnout at 4,000, LOL.

    ***

    15,000 at the height of the protest according to White Counter. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2778858-echo.html

    This indeed translates to perhaps 20,000 who passed through. My prediction of 15,000 was, yet again, very close to perfect.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Kouroi

    Still, this happens on an illegal protest where people can lose their jobs and place in university, etc.

    Economy needs to be fixed (Russia can inrease debt to finance infrastructure), the corruption should be decreased ASAP, and IT souveregnity must be further encouraged. Import substitution must be increased, and economy reoriented towards Asia. People to people exchanges also towards Asia. Etc.

    It is also possible that Russia’s youth degeneration issue could be related to widespread single motherhood, studies have shown that they and their children are more likely to be liberal.

    Family values need to be encouraged and divorces for people with young children made harder.

    I said many times, one must fix their own house before they engage in geopolitical games with the strongest players in the world, who have some of the best minds working on their side. The West is stronger than many think, even though it is declining. But Russia is in relative decline too.

    The West’s current game with Navalny was pretty good. It was all engineered from the beginning. A russian reaction must follow.

  44. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Kouroi


    All the pictures I have seen so far put the numbers of people gathered, based my personal experience, on the very high hundreds, bordering the 1,000.
     
    Even the Moscow police put turnout at 4,000, LOL.

    ***

    15,000 at the height of the protest according to White Counter. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2778858-echo.html

    This indeed translates to perhaps 20,000 who passed through. My prediction of 15,000 was, yet again, very close to perfect.

    Replies: @Passer by, @Kouroi

    I haven’t seen pictures from above in Moscow and provided estimates for what I have seen. )ne hundred people can make half a soccer field look preety packed if distributed about, so for 4000 people one would need about 20 soccer fields with same density overall.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    @Kouroi

    https://twitter.com/znak_com/status/1352954404815704064

    There are many thousands involved, probably 20 000. This with all the threats to their well being (being fired from their job, losing scholarship, etc.).

    Protests were held all over Russia too, including in very bad weather conditions. So it is the most serious anti-Putin protest since 2012. After Navalny gets jailed it will get interesting too.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Kouroi

  45. @216
    @AnonfromTN


    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.
     
    You may jest, but that's a good descriptor of the American far-right.

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.
    You may jest, but that’s a good descriptor of the American far-right.

    Do you mean to say that American far right has the same paymasters and scriptwriters as Navalny clown? That would explain quite a lot.

    • Replies: @Jazman
    @AnonfromTN

    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas . So they sending me this and I believe that they have not even read about it
    https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=11&po=11

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  46. @Kouroi
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I haven't seen pictures from above in Moscow and provided estimates for what I have seen. )ne hundred people can make half a soccer field look preety packed if distributed about, so for 4000 people one would need about 20 soccer fields with same density overall.

    Replies: @Passer by

    There are many thousands involved, probably 20 000. This with all the threats to their well being (being fired from their job, losing scholarship, etc.).

    Protests were held all over Russia too, including in very bad weather conditions. So it is the most serious anti-Putin protest since 2012. After Navalny gets jailed it will get interesting too.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Passer by

    Yes and if Navalny dies for whatever reason Putin will be held accountable.

    , @Kouroi
    @Passer by

    I don't see 20 soccer fields worth of people there, sorry.

    And I do hope Navalny gets prison for treason, to a maximum of 20 years. But I am not sure the Russians will have the balls to do that. While the US is trying to put Assange in prison for 175 years and nobody bats an eyelid!

    http://johnhelmer.net/swedish-laboratory-stockholm-court-confirm-alexei-navalny-prepared-nato-secrets-adding-evidence-for-treason-indictment-in-russian-court/

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

  47. @Passer by
    @Kouroi

    https://twitter.com/znak_com/status/1352954404815704064

    There are many thousands involved, probably 20 000. This with all the threats to their well being (being fired from their job, losing scholarship, etc.).

    Protests were held all over Russia too, including in very bad weather conditions. So it is the most serious anti-Putin protest since 2012. After Navalny gets jailed it will get interesting too.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Kouroi

    Yes and if Navalny dies for whatever reason Putin will be held accountable.

  48. @Bashibuzuk
    @mal

    No but they mobilized the OMON to arrest a shaman who was traveling from Siberia to exorcise Putin.

    https://lenta.ru/news/2020/05/30/shaman/

    Alexander Gabyshev believed that Putin was the embodiment of evil that is stiffening Russian people. He was a Shaman and decided to exercise this evil from the Kremlin. To that he wanted to dance and sing on the Res Square. He was arrested and put in mandating psychiatric treatment.

    And yeah, everywhere he went thousands of people joined him, Orthodox, Atheist...

    Thousands felt much the same as Sasha Gabyshev. That's because he was a real Shaman, not a fake one like the Capitol DC poser.

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    “A real shaman.” Right.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @RadicalCenter

    Sasha Gabyshev is a real shaman as understood in his culture. You might think that shamanism is fake or worthless, but tens million or even hundreds million peoples around the world don't feel that way. For them it is real.

  49. @Europe Europa
    @g2k

    It seems to me that it's pretty much only the UK doing this ridiculous never ending lock down thing. Most of the US and mainland Europe seem to be taking a more pragmatic and less oppressive approach not that different to Russia.

    The UK has just gone completely insane under Boris Johnson, what is happening here is not reflective of "the West" as a whole.

    Replies: @g2k, @RadicalCenter

    Not correct about the US, unfortunately. The great majority of States still have quite the police-state apparatus and measures in place due to the “pandemic” hysteria.

    Our first and fourth most populous States (CA and NY) are still locked down pretty severely, especially California where we live (which itself accounts for nearly one of every 8 US residents).

  50. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Bashibuzuk


    It’s the first time in my memory that the protests are so widespread across the country...
     
    This is literally what happened in 2017 too.

    Furthermore, some regional protests - most notably and recently, the Khabarovsk ones over Furgal - were MUCH larger than the ones over Navalny. Up to 50k came out for Furgal (in a city of 600k), now - 2 OOM's fewer: https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1352892352747204609

    But people are starting to feel fed up with Putin’s “stability”, just like they got fed up with Brezhnev’s stability (in fact a stagnant society) when Putin was young.
     
    They were fed up by stability in 2011-12. Perhaps time for Belarus, or another slice of Ukraine. This is what I would recommend to Putler.

    For both Brezhnev’s and Putin’s regimes the on sequences will be similar.
     
    The problem with the Soviet system is that it's late products drank their own Kool-Aid. As Kholmogorov put it, Gorbachev was the "last man" of Soviet history: https://vz.ru/opinions/2019/2/14/964180.html

    The kremlins are more cynical/realistic about how the world works.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @RadicalCenter

    Are Russia and Belarus likely to finally consummate the union-state anytime soon? Would that give him and his crew a boost in public support due to national pride for at least a few years?

    Couldn’t Putin score a public-opinion coup among most Belarussians, too, by forcing Lukashenko to step down (retire comfortably somewhere else in the RF) in favor of a somewhat less corrupt Kremlin-picked successor AND allowing more genuine local autonomy?

    Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus.

    Also, would Belarussian pensioners receive a bit higher benefits under RF law than they currently receive? It might still be paltry, but a noticeable increase is an increase still.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @RadicalCenter

    Hopefully - but Russia's levers over Belarus are quite limited.

    Lukashenko's position has now stabilized and is going back to his multivector strategy. While the West isn't stupid either, and refrains from imposing serious sanctions on it.

    , @Corvinus
    @RadicalCenter

    "Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus."

    At the risk of further exposing his own oligarchic machinations? Not on your life.

  51. @RadicalCenter
    @Bashibuzuk

    “A real shaman.” Right.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    Sasha Gabyshev is a real shaman as understood in his culture. You might think that shamanism is fake or worthless, but tens million or even hundreds million peoples around the world don’t feel that way. For them it is real.

  52. @AnonfromTN
    @216


    Well, Navalny message can hardly excite anyone other than insecure sex-deprived teenagers.
    You may jest, but that’s a good descriptor of the American far-right.
     
    Do you mean to say that American far right has the same paymasters and scriptwriters as Navalny clown? That would explain quite a lot.

    Replies: @Jazman

    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas . So they sending me this and I believe that they have not even read about it
    https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=11&po=11

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Jazman


    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas .
     
    After real nerve gas poisoning the person dies within minutes, unless given an antidote within a minute or two. Nerve gases are inhibitors of acetylcholine esterase, which disable all neuromuscular synapses straight off. The most immediate (and quickly fatal) consequence is that you stop breathing.

    The circus with Skripal or Navalny poisoning was 100% BS. What’s more, the scripts were written by people who weren’t even qualified to write about nerve gas poisoning.

    Looks like CIA/MI6/Mossad were stingy, hired cheap low-quality hacks to invent those stories. Hence poor quality of the narrative, and numerous changes in the story within days, like in Skripal case. At least five different stories were told within a weak, each less plausible than the previous one. The picture of a perfectly happy and healthy bobby next to two clowns in spacesuits was a cherry on the cake. Similar thing with Navalny: several ridiculously unrealistic stories were told, not a single decently concocted one.

    Replies: @Kouroi, @Jazman

  53. @RadicalCenter
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Are Russia and Belarus likely to finally consummate the union-state anytime soon? Would that give him and his crew a boost in public support due to national pride for at least a few years?

    Couldn’t Putin score a public-opinion coup among most Belarussians, too, by forcing Lukashenko to step down (retire comfortably somewhere else in the RF) in favor of a somewhat less corrupt Kremlin-picked successor AND allowing more genuine local autonomy?

    Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus.

    Also, would Belarussian pensioners receive a bit higher benefits under RF law than they currently receive? It might still be paltry, but a noticeable increase is an increase still.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Corvinus

    Hopefully – but Russia’s levers over Belarus are quite limited.

    Lukashenko’s position has now stabilized and is going back to his multivector strategy. While the West isn’t stupid either, and refrains from imposing serious sanctions on it.

  54. @Passer by
    @Kouroi

    https://twitter.com/znak_com/status/1352954404815704064

    There are many thousands involved, probably 20 000. This with all the threats to their well being (being fired from their job, losing scholarship, etc.).

    Protests were held all over Russia too, including in very bad weather conditions. So it is the most serious anti-Putin protest since 2012. After Navalny gets jailed it will get interesting too.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Kouroi

    I don’t see 20 soccer fields worth of people there, sorry.

    And I do hope Navalny gets prison for treason, to a maximum of 20 years. But I am not sure the Russians will have the balls to do that. While the US is trying to put Assange in prison for 175 years and nobody bats an eyelid!

    http://johnhelmer.net/swedish-laboratory-stockholm-court-confirm-alexei-navalny-prepared-nato-secrets-adding-evidence-for-treason-indictment-in-russian-court/

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    @Kouroi


    I do hope Navalny gets prison for treason, to a maximum of 20 years.
     
    No need to invoke treason. He has earned many years in prison by his purely criminal actions, for which he was already convicted.
  55. @Jazman
    @AnonfromTN

    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas . So they sending me this and I believe that they have not even read about it
    https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/csem/csem.asp?csem=11&po=11

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas .

    After real nerve gas poisoning the person dies within minutes, unless given an antidote within a minute or two. Nerve gases are inhibitors of acetylcholine esterase, which disable all neuromuscular synapses straight off. The most immediate (and quickly fatal) consequence is that you stop breathing.

    The circus with Skripal or Navalny poisoning was 100% BS. What’s more, the scripts were written by people who weren’t even qualified to write about nerve gas poisoning.

    Looks like CIA/MI6/Mossad were stingy, hired cheap low-quality hacks to invent those stories. Hence poor quality of the narrative, and numerous changes in the story within days, like in Skripal case. At least five different stories were told within a weak, each less plausible than the previous one. The picture of a perfectly happy and healthy bobby next to two clowns in spacesuits was a cherry on the cake. Similar thing with Navalny: several ridiculously unrealistic stories were told, not a single decently concocted one.

    • Agree: Jazman
    • Replies: @Kouroi
    @AnonfromTN

    It is not out of stinginess but sheer disdain of their audience. The Big Lie... People in the end choose to believe, otherwise, the truth, and the inability to do something abut it would become unbearably painful.

    , @Jazman
    @AnonfromTN

    What do you think about this Lancet text about poisoning
    I do not have qualifications to see where is lie except it is British
    https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/archives/lancet-case-study-on-nerve-agent-poisoning-as-russia-arrests-the-victim/

  56. @Kouroi
    @Passer by

    I don't see 20 soccer fields worth of people there, sorry.

    And I do hope Navalny gets prison for treason, to a maximum of 20 years. But I am not sure the Russians will have the balls to do that. While the US is trying to put Assange in prison for 175 years and nobody bats an eyelid!

    http://johnhelmer.net/swedish-laboratory-stockholm-court-confirm-alexei-navalny-prepared-nato-secrets-adding-evidence-for-treason-indictment-in-russian-court/

    Replies: @AnonfromTN

    I do hope Navalny gets prison for treason, to a maximum of 20 years.

    No need to invoke treason. He has earned many years in prison by his purely criminal actions, for which he was already convicted.

  57. @RadicalCenter
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Are Russia and Belarus likely to finally consummate the union-state anytime soon? Would that give him and his crew a boost in public support due to national pride for at least a few years?

    Couldn’t Putin score a public-opinion coup among most Belarussians, too, by forcing Lukashenko to step down (retire comfortably somewhere else in the RF) in favor of a somewhat less corrupt Kremlin-picked successor AND allowing more genuine local autonomy?

    Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus.

    Also, would Belarussian pensioners receive a bit higher benefits under RF law than they currently receive? It might still be paltry, but a noticeable increase is an increase still.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Corvinus

    “Putin could single out several of Lukashenko’s most flagrantly corrupt or brutal cronies who are most hated and feared by the Belarussian people — whether oligarchs or police officials — prosecute them in drawn-out public trials, imprison them for long terms, and use their ill-gotten wealth to expand / modernize hospitals and schools in each oblast of Belarus.”

    At the risk of further exposing his own oligarchic machinations? Not on your life.

  58. @AnonfromTN
    @Jazman


    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas .
     
    After real nerve gas poisoning the person dies within minutes, unless given an antidote within a minute or two. Nerve gases are inhibitors of acetylcholine esterase, which disable all neuromuscular synapses straight off. The most immediate (and quickly fatal) consequence is that you stop breathing.

    The circus with Skripal or Navalny poisoning was 100% BS. What’s more, the scripts were written by people who weren’t even qualified to write about nerve gas poisoning.

    Looks like CIA/MI6/Mossad were stingy, hired cheap low-quality hacks to invent those stories. Hence poor quality of the narrative, and numerous changes in the story within days, like in Skripal case. At least five different stories were told within a weak, each less plausible than the previous one. The picture of a perfectly happy and healthy bobby next to two clowns in spacesuits was a cherry on the cake. Similar thing with Navalny: several ridiculously unrealistic stories were told, not a single decently concocted one.

    Replies: @Kouroi, @Jazman

    It is not out of stinginess but sheer disdain of their audience. The Big Lie… People in the end choose to believe, otherwise, the truth, and the inability to do something abut it would become unbearably painful.

  59. @AnonfromTN
    @Jazman


    I was teasing Navalny supporters about poisoning and how it is impossible to recover after exposure of nerve gas .
     
    After real nerve gas poisoning the person dies within minutes, unless given an antidote within a minute or two. Nerve gases are inhibitors of acetylcholine esterase, which disable all neuromuscular synapses straight off. The most immediate (and quickly fatal) consequence is that you stop breathing.

    The circus with Skripal or Navalny poisoning was 100% BS. What’s more, the scripts were written by people who weren’t even qualified to write about nerve gas poisoning.

    Looks like CIA/MI6/Mossad were stingy, hired cheap low-quality hacks to invent those stories. Hence poor quality of the narrative, and numerous changes in the story within days, like in Skripal case. At least five different stories were told within a weak, each less plausible than the previous one. The picture of a perfectly happy and healthy bobby next to two clowns in spacesuits was a cherry on the cake. Similar thing with Navalny: several ridiculously unrealistic stories were told, not a single decently concocted one.

    Replies: @Kouroi, @Jazman

    What do you think about this Lancet text about poisoning
    I do not have qualifications to see where is lie except it is British
    https://www.medicalbrief.co.za/archives/lancet-case-study-on-nerve-agent-poisoning-as-russia-arrests-the-victim/

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