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General Strike: Ironically, this wouldn’t have happened if Lukashenko had pursued neoliberal reforms. ~90% of the Belarus economy is state-owned.

Prediction Market: The only prediction market I’m aware of on whether Lukashenko remains President of Belarus (as of Jan 31, 2020) is on Metaculus, it is now at 60% (down from an initial 75-80% until August 13).

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/

General Schizophrenia: Belarus state TV has uncovered a “Minsk protest organizer” with a list of objects that every Western spy needs to carry around with him:

  • Ukrainian intelligence agency SBU ID card (complete with card of Stepan Bandera)
  • Hand grenades and masks
  • Books on firearms, assassination methods
  • Polish ID card
  • Miniature NATO flag

But before one speculates at the IQ of the audience this spectacle is aimed for, they also claimed that this agent was in touch with “Moscow politologists.” Making him a Russian agent, as well as a NATO one.

Or, more realistically, flinging anything they can in an effort to make something stick. (While reinforcing the point I have been making that Lukashenko is no friend of Russia’s).

***

Anyhow, while I thought the regime was stabilizing around August 12, it’s clearly on the downslide again now. This doesn’t mean I think Lukashenko is done for. It may well be able to outlast the general strike – the workers need to eat, after all. And the same factors that applied before, continue to apply now, namely the lack of politically influential oligarchs (that can be subject to Western financial pressure), non state-controlled mass media (though the Internet is a major factor), or well-established opposition politicians (Tikhanovskaya, now calling for new elections from Lithuania, is a figurehead for her blogger husband, who is in a jail in Belarus). These factors make the situation incomparable to that in the Ukraine. (And even there, Yanukovych may well have survived had he stuck by his siloviks, instead of stabbing them in the back).

Subsequently, I can’t quite see how a Maidan is to succeed unless the siloviks around Lukashenko themselves defect. But we will see soon enough.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Belarus, Color Revolution 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Making him a Russian agent, as well as a NATO one.

    Nice! Way to go Belarus! After all, it is well known in the liberal press that Putin rules America via Trump. Therefore, it is only reasonable to assume that Putin rules NATO as well.

    Lukashenko should write an editorial about it in the New York Times and go on Rachel Maddow. Topic of the editorial – “NATO is actually a Warsaw Pact. Like, literally.” I’m glad Belarus had finally cracked the code.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin, Aedib
    • Replies: @Pop Warner
    @mal

    Lukashenko could become a darling of American media if he claims that Trump and Putin colluded to remove him from power. Anything he did before would be forgotten, all sins forgiven. As long as he keeps up the conspiracy theories about Russia that russophobe journalists salivate over he too can be turned into a saint, just like Saint Floyd of Fentanyl. The memory of the average cable news viewer is so short and their knowledge of the world outside the US so limited that it can easily be pulled off.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @inertial

  3. These workers who are on strike work for state owned factories – that have been subsidised by Lukashenko.

    They are marching towards unemployment!!!

    Why are people so dumb ???

    Privatisation will happen and they will just become cheap labour in the west.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Colour revolution


    They are marching towards unemployment!!!
     
    ...not by bread alone! - pleasing eternal slogan preached by the uppermost Western meme-maker almost 2,000 years ago.

    They also have dreams. Why wouldn't Luka's workers have dreams and aspirations?
    3rd rate Italian hotels are staring empty, waiting for the wide-eyed Belarus middle class dreamers who want to see the world...and maybe clean a few toilets while visiting. It's always the same.

    Replies: @justiana

  4. I’m not sure the strike is as widespread as reported.

    I read minutes ago that (private?) businesses are open in Minsk, people are selling watermeloons, restaurants are working, etc.

    Also what was reported as being a strike yesterday (I forgot the enterprise’s name) was in fact a meeting to make some demands regarding OMON’s actions. First they talked to the manager, then to the mayor. Some workers were beaten for no reason. Thankfully, the government walked back and apologized.

    The grant-eaters are rather silent on Twitter, with scant report and relying a lot on one another, circulating the same pics (which don’t look massive, indeed, it varies from a few dozens to a few hundreds. It’s odd that the people on strike are uniformized and in their place of work. Where I live, you don’t go to work on strikes when they happen, other than perhaps on the first day, to announce it. It’s hard to say they are indeed not working.

    No huge protest gatherings, which is where the danger of sudden regime change lies, especially if they overwhelm the siloviki at the government buildings and by their sheer numbers demoralize them. I hope this won’t happen in this weekend, so the siloviki better be prepared, by e.g. cutting transit and don’t letting people set barricades anywhere, and yes, arresting troublemakers.

    I’m no fan of Lukashenko, he’s a backstabber, but today I read reports of the opposition wanting not only for Lukashenko to step down, but also LUSTRATION of the judges, siloviki, and the entire government. You know what will happen then? The replacement will be handpicked by their Russophobia and loyalty to the “West” (Jewry and the minor Anglo players). It’s so predictable.

    The good news is that this makes the siloviki more determined.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Camle

    "Where I live, you don’t go to work on strikes when they happen"- True when you strike for wages or working conditions. When you do political, the 'regime change' strike you do occupational nation-wide strike particularly when companies are state owned, i.e., belonging to the people meaning the workers who work in them which legitimizes the occupation of factories. Other important reason is that you want to do occupational strike is to keep people from going on the streets where they could be very easily provoked to violence and could be met with an overwhelming force. Preferably you leave the streets for women who have moderating effect security apparatus and hopefully on the hot headed youth are infested with provocateurs. You sent women with flower against the police and with food for workers locked up in factories.

  5. Lukashenko is not pro-Russia, pro-Western, or pro-Belarus. Lukashenko seems to be entirely pro-Lukashenko. He demonstrates the same sort of megalomania as Erdogan.

    While meddling NGO’s and other UN/NWO organizations are everywhere, it is hard to see how they would try a far-left, libtard color revolution. It would take huge amounts of money that they do not have without a nation-state funder:

    — Trump has decent relations with Putin, and sees no U.S. national interest in Belarus. Cooperation with Putin in Syria is too important to place at risk.
    — Merkel is certainly far-left — Would she sacrifice Nordstream 2 to go “all-in” on Belarus? Highly unlikely, although Germany and Stupidity are often synonymous. Chances are low but greater than zero.
    — Who else has the financial resources? And the will?

    Hopefully, Putin can wait until the people of Belarus rally around a pro-Russia successor and then back the transition of power. Finding a 3rd country to give an unpleasant leader sanctuary in return for departing is one of the few ways to guarantee a quick & peaceful handover. The last thing that Putin wants is refugees fleeing into Russia during winter.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @utu
    @A123

    "Merkel is certainly far-left" - This is irrelevant whether she is and in what sense she is left or right. The issue here is geopolitical for Germany as well as for Russia and the US. Does Germany care or need independent and sovereign Belarus? Or is it possible that Germany shares Russia view that subjugation/annexation of Belarus by Russia would give significant blow to Trump/Pompeo Three Seas initiative and would weaken the V4 and subjugate Poland to EU and Germany. It is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko and his balancing tightrope act rather than a maidan that would give the pro-Russian faction chance to came to power. It is possible that the anti-Lukashenko politicians were seeded by Moscow and supported by Berlin from the very beginning. But it is possible that instead of just frightening and discipling Lukashenko the opposition got too strong and got out of hand and gained general support. Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful. But people can be outplayed and deceived easily by skillful moves like introducing a figure that will offer them salvation. Does Russia has such a figure in its sleeve in Belarus?

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

  6. Never paid attention to Belarussia until now. Very interesting society.

    I agree hard to predict the final outcome. On the gut level I can’t stand the young/liberal and oppositionist people anymore. You see left right divide everywhere even in a communist country.

    This conflict made me realize a lot of new things(lack of a better word) that I been saying in posts here. New realization crystalized how passive the right is. They tend to be the content and sit around and do nothing as world around them burns. Luka has to have some supporters. Where are they. He literally needs to take their hand and personally walk them to a rally for them to show up. This is why liberal psyops about how everyone is with us so effective.

    I now think best system of government is autocracy or dictatorship. Only these systems can ensure survival of a nation. It should be the natural state of being for the right. Any other system tends stronger towards degeneracy and eventual collapse. Everything eventually collapses why help the forces of entropy?

    • Agree: Pop Warner
    • Replies: @128
    @Dreadilk

    Unless you can be like North Korea (and the penalty for being like North Korea in terms of standard of living for your population is too large, North Korea's per capita GDP is basically on the same level as a subsaharan craphole like Guinea or Senegal, you can even argue that the rural areas have an even lower standard of living than places like Burundi or Burkina Faso, there is no way you can shield your population from the shiny things that the West has to offer like iPhones and such, and fundamentally people just hate feeling like they are being locked in a cage against their desires and wishes, even if it is for their own good. There is no way to square this circle. As for the appeal of pozzed MNCs in developing countries, they simply are able to offer better wages and benefits compared to their local competitors, or the order of 2 times or more the wages of what local companies can offer.

  7. @Camle
    I'm not sure the strike is as widespread as reported.

    I read minutes ago that (private?) businesses are open in Minsk, people are selling watermeloons, restaurants are working, etc.

    Also what was reported as being a strike yesterday (I forgot the enterprise's name) was in fact a meeting to make some demands regarding OMON's actions. First they talked to the manager, then to the mayor. Some workers were beaten for no reason. Thankfully, the government walked back and apologized.

    The grant-eaters are rather silent on Twitter, with scant report and relying a lot on one another, circulating the same pics (which don't look massive, indeed, it varies from a few dozens to a few hundreds. It's odd that the people on strike are uniformized and in their place of work. Where I live, you don't go to work on strikes when they happen, other than perhaps on the first day, to announce it. It's hard to say they are indeed not working.

    No huge protest gatherings, which is where the danger of sudden regime change lies, especially if they overwhelm the siloviki at the government buildings and by their sheer numbers demoralize them. I hope this won't happen in this weekend, so the siloviki better be prepared, by e.g. cutting transit and don't letting people set barricades anywhere, and yes, arresting troublemakers.

    I'm no fan of Lukashenko, he's a backstabber, but today I read reports of the opposition wanting not only for Lukashenko to step down, but also LUSTRATION of the judges, siloviki, and the entire government. You know what will happen then? The replacement will be handpicked by their Russophobia and loyalty to the "West" (Jewry and the minor Anglo players). It's so predictable.

    The good news is that this makes the siloviki more determined.

    Replies: @utu

    “Where I live, you don’t go to work on strikes when they happen”– True when you strike for wages or working conditions. When you do political, the ‘regime change’ strike you do occupational nation-wide strike particularly when companies are state owned, i.e., belonging to the people meaning the workers who work in them which legitimizes the occupation of factories. Other important reason is that you want to do occupational strike is to keep people from going on the streets where they could be very easily provoked to violence and could be met with an overwhelming force. Preferably you leave the streets for women who have moderating effect security apparatus and hopefully on the hot headed youth are infested with provocateurs. You sent women with flower against the police and with food for workers locked up in factories.

  8. God, I hope he gets sodomized by a knife, Gaddafi-style.

  9. There is no way that Belarus would be allowed to keep its state-run enterprises if it turns West, just like none of the other former Soviet republics were allowed to once they allowed Western advisors in. The Ukraine finally gave up its Black Earth land to keep Zelensky in power. This was inevitable because raiders started seizing land from small farmers almost immediately after Maidan.

  10. @A123
    Lukashenko is not pro-Russia, pro-Western, or pro-Belarus. Lukashenko seems to be entirely pro-Lukashenko. He demonstrates the same sort of megalomania as Erdogan.

    While meddling NGO's and other UN/NWO organizations are everywhere, it is hard to see how they would try a far-left, libtard color revolution. It would take huge amounts of money that they do not have without a nation-state funder:

    -- Trump has decent relations with Putin, and sees no U.S. national interest in Belarus. Cooperation with Putin in Syria is too important to place at risk.
    -- Merkel is certainly far-left -- Would she sacrifice Nordstream 2 to go "all-in" on Belarus? Highly unlikely, although Germany and Stupidity are often synonymous. Chances are low but greater than zero.
    -- Who else has the financial resources? And the will?

    Hopefully, Putin can wait until the people of Belarus rally around a pro-Russia successor and then back the transition of power. Finding a 3rd country to give an unpleasant leader sanctuary in return for departing is one of the few ways to guarantee a quick & peaceful handover. The last thing that Putin wants is refugees fleeing into Russia during winter.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @utu

    “Merkel is certainly far-left” – This is irrelevant whether she is and in what sense she is left or right. The issue here is geopolitical for Germany as well as for Russia and the US. Does Germany care or need independent and sovereign Belarus? Or is it possible that Germany shares Russia view that subjugation/annexation of Belarus by Russia would give significant blow to Trump/Pompeo Three Seas initiative and would weaken the V4 and subjugate Poland to EU and Germany. It is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko and his balancing tightrope act rather than a maidan that would give the pro-Russian faction chance to came to power. It is possible that the anti-Lukashenko politicians were seeded by Moscow and supported by Berlin from the very beginning. But it is possible that instead of just frightening and discipling Lukashenko the opposition got too strong and got out of hand and gained general support. Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful. But people can be outplayed and deceived easily by skillful moves like introducing a figure that will offer them salvation. Does Russia has such a figure in its sleeve in Belarus?

    • Replies: @A123
    @utu


    it is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko
     
    It is impossible:

    -- Trump wants to work with Putin in Syria. There is 0% chance Trump would put that at risk for a Belarus.
    -- Poland has a tight budget and shares Russia's concerns about possible winter refugees from Belarus.
    -- Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.

    Merkel has only two options:

    -A- Joining the Putin/Trump/Duda side in opposition to a UN/NWO color revolution.
    -B- Opposing Putin/Trump/Duda by supporting a UN/NWO color revolution.

    Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful.
     
    I am not sure about colorful.

    They certainly want a bigger share of the fruits of their labor than Lukashenko is providing. Having more spending power certainly gives more freedom, so I will agree with you on that limited point.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Aedib

    , @Beckow
    @utu

    It looks like everyone has a plan, but nobody is in control. This could surprise.

    I have said before that the deep, irreconcilable geopolitical differences between Russia and its enemies - a very long list - will eventually be solved by a bloody clash somewhere. A massive clash to clear the deck. It seems that Belarusians have volunteered, or somebody volunteered them.

    Now for the strategy: this is a weak place to poke Russia, but also deadly dangerous for Russia, right there with messing with St.Petersburg. That combination suggests that West will be half-hearted, other than the emotional Poles, Balts and Ukrainians. But maybe not, the West has been losing a lot lately, they might need a Hail Mary. And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.

    Replies: @A123

  11. @Dreadilk
    Never paid attention to Belarussia until now. Very interesting society.

    I agree hard to predict the final outcome. On the gut level I can't stand the young/liberal and oppositionist people anymore. You see left right divide everywhere even in a communist country.

    This conflict made me realize a lot of new things(lack of a better word) that I been saying in posts here. New realization crystalized how passive the right is. They tend to be the content and sit around and do nothing as world around them burns. Luka has to have some supporters. Where are they. He literally needs to take their hand and personally walk them to a rally for them to show up. This is why liberal psyops about how everyone is with us so effective.

    I now think best system of government is autocracy or dictatorship. Only these systems can ensure survival of a nation. It should be the natural state of being for the right. Any other system tends stronger towards degeneracy and eventual collapse. Everything eventually collapses why help the forces of entropy?

    Replies: @128

    Unless you can be like North Korea (and the penalty for being like North Korea in terms of standard of living for your population is too large, North Korea’s per capita GDP is basically on the same level as a subsaharan craphole like Guinea or Senegal, you can even argue that the rural areas have an even lower standard of living than places like Burundi or Burkina Faso, there is no way you can shield your population from the shiny things that the West has to offer like iPhones and such, and fundamentally people just hate feeling like they are being locked in a cage against their desires and wishes, even if it is for their own good. There is no way to square this circle. As for the appeal of pozzed MNCs in developing countries, they simply are able to offer better wages and benefits compared to their local competitors, or the order of 2 times or more the wages of what local companies can offer.

  12. Where is the advantage for the security forces in backing Lukashenko? He has lost in every direction except them. What more can they extract from him? The longer they back him the more exposed to the final winners, whoever they are, they become. So far they are staying with him but this is a very short term perspective. Better to put a KGB candidate up as a presidential candidate? Are overly loyal KGB aged generals standing in the way of change. Time for a colonel’s revolt? At the very least, victory will bring promotion as the old guard are cleared out.

    The army can take out the security forces by taking over the barracks and destroying their logistics. Which side is the army on? Free and Fair elections or dictatorship?

    Russia has finally fitted out an oil refinery capable of Euro+, the Moscow refinery. Others are under reconstruction. The Belarussian refinery complex is on notice as the withdrawal of subsidized prices suggests. Change is coming and Lukashenko will not have the answers. This must be obvious even to KGB generals, although they just might be too old or too stupid. They were probably appointed for loyalty not merit.

  13. @utu
    @A123

    "Merkel is certainly far-left" - This is irrelevant whether she is and in what sense she is left or right. The issue here is geopolitical for Germany as well as for Russia and the US. Does Germany care or need independent and sovereign Belarus? Or is it possible that Germany shares Russia view that subjugation/annexation of Belarus by Russia would give significant blow to Trump/Pompeo Three Seas initiative and would weaken the V4 and subjugate Poland to EU and Germany. It is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko and his balancing tightrope act rather than a maidan that would give the pro-Russian faction chance to came to power. It is possible that the anti-Lukashenko politicians were seeded by Moscow and supported by Berlin from the very beginning. But it is possible that instead of just frightening and discipling Lukashenko the opposition got too strong and got out of hand and gained general support. Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful. But people can be outplayed and deceived easily by skillful moves like introducing a figure that will offer them salvation. Does Russia has such a figure in its sleeve in Belarus?

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    it is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko

    It is impossible:

    — Trump wants to work with Putin in Syria. There is 0% chance Trump would put that at risk for a Belarus.
    — Poland has a tight budget and shares Russia’s concerns about possible winter refugees from Belarus.
    — Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.

    Merkel has only two options:

    -A- Joining the Putin/Trump/Duda side in opposition to a UN/NWO color revolution.
    -B- Opposing Putin/Trump/Duda by supporting a UN/NWO color revolution.

    Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful.

    I am not sure about colorful.

    They certainly want a bigger share of the fruits of their labor than Lukashenko is providing. Having more spending power certainly gives more freedom, so I will agree with you on that limited point.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @A123


    Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.
     
    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?

    Replies: @A123

    , @Aedib
    @A123

    Poland instincts is “everything Russian is bad and evil. We must oppose to Russia even if we die”.

    Replies: @A123

  14. @Colour revolution
    These workers who are on strike work for state owned factories - that have been subsidised by Lukashenko.

    They are marching towards unemployment!!!

    Why are people so dumb ???

    Privatisation will happen and they will just become cheap labour in the west.

    Replies: @Beckow

    They are marching towards unemployment!!!

    …not by bread alone! – pleasing eternal slogan preached by the uppermost Western meme-maker almost 2,000 years ago.

    They also have dreams. Why wouldn’t Luka’s workers have dreams and aspirations?
    3rd rate Italian hotels are staring empty, waiting for the wide-eyed Belarus middle class dreamers who want to see the world...and maybe clean a few toilets while visiting. It’s always the same.

    • Replies: @justiana
    @Beckow

    Holy fuck man stop! This is so true.

  15. @A123
    @utu


    it is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko
     
    It is impossible:

    -- Trump wants to work with Putin in Syria. There is 0% chance Trump would put that at risk for a Belarus.
    -- Poland has a tight budget and shares Russia's concerns about possible winter refugees from Belarus.
    -- Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.

    Merkel has only two options:

    -A- Joining the Putin/Trump/Duda side in opposition to a UN/NWO color revolution.
    -B- Opposing Putin/Trump/Duda by supporting a UN/NWO color revolution.

    Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful.
     
    I am not sure about colorful.

    They certainly want a bigger share of the fruits of their labor than Lukashenko is providing. Having more spending power certainly gives more freedom, so I will agree with you on that limited point.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Aedib

    Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.

    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?

    • Replies: @A123
    @Hyperborean


    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?
     
    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented "Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance". Duda is way smarter than that.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

  16. @utu
    @A123

    "Merkel is certainly far-left" - This is irrelevant whether she is and in what sense she is left or right. The issue here is geopolitical for Germany as well as for Russia and the US. Does Germany care or need independent and sovereign Belarus? Or is it possible that Germany shares Russia view that subjugation/annexation of Belarus by Russia would give significant blow to Trump/Pompeo Three Seas initiative and would weaken the V4 and subjugate Poland to EU and Germany. It is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko and his balancing tightrope act rather than a maidan that would give the pro-Russian faction chance to came to power. It is possible that the anti-Lukashenko politicians were seeded by Moscow and supported by Berlin from the very beginning. But it is possible that instead of just frightening and discipling Lukashenko the opposition got too strong and got out of hand and gained general support. Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful. But people can be outplayed and deceived easily by skillful moves like introducing a figure that will offer them salvation. Does Russia has such a figure in its sleeve in Belarus?

    Replies: @A123, @Beckow

    It looks like everyone has a plan, but nobody is in control. This could surprise.

    I have said before that the deep, irreconcilable geopolitical differences between Russia and its enemies – a very long list – will eventually be solved by a bloody clash somewhere. A massive clash to clear the deck. It seems that Belarusians have volunteered, or somebody volunteered them.

    Now for the strategy: this is a weak place to poke Russia, but also deadly dangerous for Russia, right there with messing with St.Petersburg. That combination suggests that West will be half-hearted, other than the emotional Poles, Balts and Ukrainians. But maybe not, the West has been losing a lot lately, they might need a Hail Mary. And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow


    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.
     
    Yes. And, we know what that reason is.

    They working on the plan to kick Germany's economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.

    One can be sure that Turkey's new provocations and Belarus will be discussed, but there is no reason to believe that policy will come out of that. This meeting is about humiliating the EU Elites for a total absence of credible policy. They do not want to step on that symbolism.

    Trump is backing Putin. And, Duda wants the base relocation.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @A123, @Europe Europa

  17. I think Russia’s muted official response (total non-response so far, to be honest, save from Zakharova’s lazy copy-paste remark on the protests, and Putins earlier copy-paste “congratulations” on Batkas “win”), and the overt anti-Lukashenko remarks made in some kind of semi-official capacity by certain Duma deputies (incl UR guys, and of course Zhirik), some ministers and a big bunch of liberal but Kremlin-agreeable public figures, plus the majority of Russian media (both state-owned and indy) covering the protests neutrally or even pro-protester, it could mean that Russia’s just tired of Lukashenko, and sees no immediate danger of the situation escalating into an Ukraine clusterfuck that harms their interests, regardless of what happens to Lukashenko.

    Ackshually, given the recent Russian push to try to increase immigration of and simplify obtaining work/residence permits and citizenships for what more and more (albeit somewhat covertly) basically amounts to white Slavic Christians, and with Poland and Lithuania already being full of Ukrainians (and not being particularly fond of a majority of the Belarusian population either), perhaps they’re hoping for a little injection of that, with no obvious downsides, such as any risk of a pro-Western puppet regime being installed any time soon.

    Even IF a pro-Western puppet is installed, them joining the EU is not on the radar for the forseeable future, and they won’t be joining NATO for aeons. Russias military presence in the country is negligible, and has no huge historical and symbolical value (though it has *some*, but not critically), so it’s certainly not a Crimea or anything like it. I think the Kremlin sees the situation as manageable, and they have plenty of levers to pull over that time without having to resort to any blatant “hands-on” measures.

    But I am certainly no analyst, and I have very little experience with Belarus. Know a few people that all are super-Russian (and they live and work in Russia nowadays), been there once (in the company of Russians, and didn’t explore jack shit), and that’s it.

  18. The big question, it seems to me, is whether Lukashenko’s human-rights record is so beyond the pale that Washington can’t possibly give him favorable treatment, no matter the scenario or geopolitical stakes. If it is, then this dramatically weakens Washington’s hand — and so strengthens Russia’s: every silovik will know what’s in store for him if Belarus joins the Washington order.

    On the whole, we should be happy that the reunification question comes to a head now, when sovoks are still a powerful voting bloc, and not in a decade’s time.

  19. @Hyperborean
    @A123


    Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.
     
    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?

    Replies: @A123

    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?

    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented “Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance“. Duda is way smarter than that.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @A123


    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented “Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance“. Duda is way smarter than that.
     

    If you are familiar with Jaroslaw Kaczyński, then you should know that Duda doesn't actually control the country.

    Additionally, setting aside that Poland is already on its way to becoming a country of immigration and both general Polish perceived defensive interests and Polish hegemonist ambitions, the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Poles don't mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months, and unlike Ukrainians, there are no uncomfortable "contradictions" with Polish historical narratives (e.g. the whole UPA/Bandera thing).

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

  20. @Beckow
    @utu

    It looks like everyone has a plan, but nobody is in control. This could surprise.

    I have said before that the deep, irreconcilable geopolitical differences between Russia and its enemies - a very long list - will eventually be solved by a bloody clash somewhere. A massive clash to clear the deck. It seems that Belarusians have volunteered, or somebody volunteered them.

    Now for the strategy: this is a weak place to poke Russia, but also deadly dangerous for Russia, right there with messing with St.Petersburg. That combination suggests that West will be half-hearted, other than the emotional Poles, Balts and Ukrainians. But maybe not, the West has been losing a lot lately, they might need a Hail Mary. And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.

    Replies: @A123

    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.

    Yes. And, we know what that reason is.

    They working on the plan to kick Germany’s economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.

    One can be sure that Turkey’s new provocations and Belarus will be discussed, but there is no reason to believe that policy will come out of that. This meeting is about humiliating the EU Elites for a total absence of credible policy. They do not want to step on that symbolism.

    Trump is backing Putin. And, Duda wants the base relocation.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @A123
    @A123


    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.
     
    *D'OH* Sorry. Got Pompeo's schedule wrong.

    Pompeo has stops in Prague, Warsaw, and Vienna to intended to pointedly travel around Germany's border and highlight Merkel's total lack of regional influence.

    The base relocation is more on point to the Warsaw stop than Prague.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Europe Europa
    @A123

    Poland is the EU, and is not at all pro-Russian so I don't see how Trump moving military bases to Poland can be construed as an anti-EU gesture or a pro-Russian gesture.

    I would imagine Trump's decision to move the bases to Poland is a pragmatic one. Poland is now a lot wealthier and more developed than it used to be, so there is now no real disadvantage or potential infrastructure problems in having the bases in Poland rather than Germany, and is also geographically closer to the perceived threat, which is Russia.

    Replies: @A123

  21. @A123
    @Hyperborean


    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?
     
    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented "Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance". Duda is way smarter than that.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented “Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance“. Duda is way smarter than that.

    If you are familiar with Jaroslaw Kaczyński, then you should know that Duda doesn’t actually control the country.

    Additionally, setting aside that Poland is already on its way to becoming a country of immigration and both general Polish perceived defensive interests and Polish hegemonist ambitions, the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Hyperborean


    the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.
     
    So we agree.

    The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.

    Trump is already on board for this outcome as he wants to work with Putin elsewhere. Belarus is not a U.S. national interest.

    Enlightened self interest will lead Poland to cooperate with the Trump/Putin plan for Belarus.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow, @Hyperborean

    , @justiana
    @Hyperborean

    Holy fuck man stop! This is so true.

  22. @A123
    @Beckow


    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.
     
    Yes. And, we know what that reason is.

    They working on the plan to kick Germany's economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.

    One can be sure that Turkey's new provocations and Belarus will be discussed, but there is no reason to believe that policy will come out of that. This meeting is about humiliating the EU Elites for a total absence of credible policy. They do not want to step on that symbolism.

    Trump is backing Putin. And, Duda wants the base relocation.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @A123, @Europe Europa

    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.

    *D’OH* Sorry. Got Pompeo’s schedule wrong.

    Pompeo has stops in Prague, Warsaw, and Vienna to intended to pointedly travel around Germany’s border and highlight Merkel’s total lack of regional influence.

    The base relocation is more on point to the Warsaw stop than Prague.

    PEACE 😇

  23. Pompeo has stops in Prague, Warsaw, and Vienna to intended to pointedly travel around Germany’s border and highlight Merkel’s total lack of regional influence.

    An imbecilic statement even by MAGAtard standards.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Swedish Family

    I would not say so. Pompeo is in V4 drumming up real and symbolic actions that are not Merkel's priorities. He is snubbing her in her own neighbourhood. V4 was explicitly created as an anti-German coalition, there are some games being played.

    Pompeo asked in Prague for energy and telecomm concessions - basically: 'buy from us and not from Russia-China'. But no discounts, so it will go nowhere. (Pompeo: "Do you want to buy a hamburger from us for twice the price? We will like you and visit more if you buy." Czechs: "Yeah, you are a great guy, maybe next year. But it was nice to see you, come back soon.")

    In Warsaw he wants as big and as permanent bases as possible for US to threaten Kaliningrad. It is making Poland into a potential land zero in any (nuclear) conflict and only Poles are irrational enough to do it. Czechs are infamously cynical and never play a role of a target.

    Replies: @A123

    , @A123
    @Swedish Family

    I did not make Pompeo's travel plans. And, my characterization of them is not unique: (1)


    In his talks, Pompeo will likely face questions about the Trump administration’s decision to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany. Pompeo did not address the matter in his comments on Tuesday. President Donald Trump wants to withdraw thousands of American troops from bases in Germany and redeploy some of them eastward, including to neighboring Poland, the last stop on Pompeo’s week-long trip.

    Two of Pompeo’s other three destinations — the Czech Republic and Austria — also share a border with Germany, while Slovakia borders Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland. Germany is pointedly not on Pompeo’s itinerary.
     
    How would you characterize the itinerary for Pompeo's "NATO but no Germany" trip?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.wowktv.com/news/u-s-world/pompeo-opens-anti-china-anti-russia-tour-in-czech-republic/

    If you read the article, notice it is from Associated Press [AP] which has a track record of antipathy towards Putin.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

  24. @mal

    Making him a Russian agent, as well as a NATO one.
     
    Nice! Way to go Belarus! After all, it is well known in the liberal press that Putin rules America via Trump. Therefore, it is only reasonable to assume that Putin rules NATO as well.

    Lukashenko should write an editorial about it in the New York Times and go on Rachel Maddow. Topic of the editorial - "NATO is actually a Warsaw Pact. Like, literally." I'm glad Belarus had finally cracked the code.

    Replies: @Pop Warner

    Lukashenko could become a darling of American media if he claims that Trump and Putin colluded to remove him from power. Anything he did before would be forgotten, all sins forgiven. As long as he keeps up the conspiracy theories about Russia that russophobe journalists salivate over he too can be turned into a saint, just like Saint Floyd of Fentanyl. The memory of the average cable news viewer is so short and their knowledge of the world outside the US so limited that it can easily be pulled off.

    • Agree: mal, Not Raul
    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @Pop Warner


    Better to be a dictator than gay
     
    They will never forgive him for this powerful comment
    , @inertial
    @Pop Warner

    Gaddafi's example shows that nothing is ever forgiven. Once you are designated a bloody dictator, it's forever. They may be nice to you for a while if it suits them but will squash you at the first opportunity.

  25. @Hyperborean
    @A123


    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented “Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance“. Duda is way smarter than that.
     

    If you are familiar with Jaroslaw Kaczyński, then you should know that Duda doesn't actually control the country.

    Additionally, setting aside that Poland is already on its way to becoming a country of immigration and both general Polish perceived defensive interests and Polish hegemonist ambitions, the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

    the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.

    So we agree.

    The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.

    Trump is already on board for this outcome as he wants to work with Putin elsewhere. Belarus is not a U.S. national interest.

    Enlightened self interest will lead Poland to cooperate with the Trump/Putin plan for Belarus.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @A123


    ...The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.
     
    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated, and as quickly as possible. The elite string-pullers behind the leaders of those countries have as one of their top priorities to have migrants, refugees, 'students', whomever - that's the goal, all else is noise.

    They know that in nicely heterogeneous and mutually hostile societies with an oversupply of labor they will be ruling more securely. All else is usually sacrificed to achieve this goal - they know that without it the wobbly house of cards they have created would collapse very quickly. There will be more migrants as long as they rule over us, come fire or high water, they will keep on coming - it's not a mistake, it's what the system is built on.

    Replies: @A123

    , @Hyperborean
    @A123


    So we agree.
     
    You shouldn't twist my words.

    But given the cluelessness of this statement perhaps I shouldn't bother:

    They working on the plan to kick Germany’s economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.
     

    Replies: @A123

  26. @Swedish Family

    Pompeo has stops in Prague, Warsaw, and Vienna to intended to pointedly travel around Germany’s border and highlight Merkel’s total lack of regional influence.
     
    An imbecilic statement even by MAGAtard standards.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    I would not say so. Pompeo is in V4 drumming up real and symbolic actions that are not Merkel’s priorities. He is snubbing her in her own neighbourhood. V4 was explicitly created as an anti-German coalition, there are some games being played.

    Pompeo asked in Prague for energy and telecomm concessions – basically: ‘buy from us and not from Russia-China‘. But no discounts, so it will go nowhere. (Pompeo: “Do you want to buy a hamburger from us for twice the price? We will like you and visit more if you buy.” Czechs: “Yeah, you are a great guy, maybe next year. But it was nice to see you, come back soon.“)

    In Warsaw he wants as big and as permanent bases as possible for US to threaten Kaliningrad. It is making Poland into a potential land zero in any (nuclear) conflict and only Poles are irrational enough to do it. Czechs are infamously cynical and never play a role of a target.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow


    In Warsaw he [Trump] wants as big and as permanent bases as possible for US to threaten Kaliningrad.
     
    Of course not. There are much more important objectives...

    In Warsaw, Trump wants big and permanent bases for the US to target SJW Globalist power centers in Frankfurt, Bonn, and Berlin.

    Can we have WARSAW PACT II, joining Russia, Poland, and the U.S. as allies against the Dark Heart of Europe?

    PEACE 😇

  27. @Swedish Family

    Pompeo has stops in Prague, Warsaw, and Vienna to intended to pointedly travel around Germany’s border and highlight Merkel’s total lack of regional influence.
     
    An imbecilic statement even by MAGAtard standards.

    Replies: @Beckow, @A123

    I did not make Pompeo’s travel plans. And, my characterization of them is not unique: (1)

    In his talks, Pompeo will likely face questions about the Trump administration’s decision to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany. Pompeo did not address the matter in his comments on Tuesday. President Donald Trump wants to withdraw thousands of American troops from bases in Germany and redeploy some of them eastward, including to neighboring Poland, the last stop on Pompeo’s week-long trip.

    Two of Pompeo’s other three destinations — the Czech Republic and Austria — also share a border with Germany, while Slovakia borders Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland. Germany is pointedly not on Pompeo’s itinerary.

    How would you characterize the itinerary for Pompeo’s “NATO but no Germany” trip?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.wowktv.com/news/u-s-world/pompeo-opens-anti-china-anti-russia-tour-in-czech-republic/

    If you read the article, notice it is from Associated Press [AP] which has a track record of antipathy towards Putin.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    @A123


    How would you characterize the itinerary for Pompeo’s “NATO but no Germany” trip?
     
    Pompeo leaving out Germany from his travel plan is neither here nor there.

    Your claim that Germany lacks regional influence is not only wrong, but the exact opposite of reality. Germany is the EU's foremost power broker by quite some distance.

  28. @A123
    @Hyperborean


    the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.
     
    So we agree.

    The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.

    Trump is already on board for this outcome as he wants to work with Putin elsewhere. Belarus is not a U.S. national interest.

    Enlightened self interest will lead Poland to cooperate with the Trump/Putin plan for Belarus.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow, @Hyperborean

    …The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.

    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated, and as quickly as possible. The elite string-pullers behind the leaders of those countries have as one of their top priorities to have migrants, refugees, ‘students’, whomever – that’s the goal, all else is noise.

    They know that in nicely heterogeneous and mutually hostile societies with an oversupply of labor they will be ruling more securely. All else is usually sacrificed to achieve this goal – they know that without it the wobbly house of cards they have created would collapse very quickly. There will be more migrants as long as they rule over us, come fire or high water, they will keep on coming – it’s not a mistake, it’s what the system is built on.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @A123
    @Beckow


    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated
     
    Who is "they"? Be specific.

    There is no reason to believe that Duda/Kaczyński, Trump, or Putin want a surge in refugees from Belarus to Poland.

    The UN/NWO, George IslamoSoros, and the Open Muslim Society Foundation would encourage such a thing, but without a national champion (and funder) they cannot run a civil war by themselves.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow

  29. @A123
    @Hyperborean


    the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.
     
    So we agree.

    The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.

    Trump is already on board for this outcome as he wants to work with Putin elsewhere. Belarus is not a U.S. national interest.

    Enlightened self interest will lead Poland to cooperate with the Trump/Putin plan for Belarus.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow, @Hyperborean

    So we agree.

    You shouldn’t twist my words.

    But given the cluelessness of this statement perhaps I shouldn’t bother:

    They working on the plan to kick Germany’s economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Hyperborean

    If we do i t agree, then I am baffled by the inconsistency and incomprehensiblity of your indiscernible position.

    -- I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.

    U.S., Russia, and Poland all support a strong pro-Russian leader in Belarus.

    So, are you agreeing?
    Or, disagreeing?


    They working on
     
    Ok.... guilty of a grammar foul.

    It should have read ... They are working on

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean

  30. Ok guys you can take it as Luka philia. And I do like his style. At least the way he talks and acts during this crisis. But I don’t think what I am about to say is that. Imagine if Trump or Putin acted this way. Luka addresses the parents of kids they are catching. He is like I understand by the time they are 16, especially boys, some parents can’t control them. But we are here, turn to us so we can make them busy. Another part of that speech he took a step back and said to his siloviki please don’t beat them once they are on the floor. But also refused to condemn his men. Yeah that does not sound like a lost and defeated man.

    Watching at the development of things I am getting the feeling Belarussia is going to settle down after about a month more of protests.

    I suspect. Luka is trying to get the protesters to get emotionally invested in police again. Get them to put down shield and get hugs. Same shit happened here in the US. To the disappointment of all on the right that wanted beatings.

    My gauge of how the situation develops if it stays peaceful. Today is second day of peaceful demonstrations. I think peaceful demonstrations are not dangerous to the regime at all. It let’s people release their emotional energy and the people in power can ignore it completely.

    Strikes is another thing it does hurt government but it also hurts the strikers and those in power know that.

  31. The most recent change of govenrment in Moldova was arranged by the US and Russian ambassadors. When I mentioned it, you said that “no one cares”.

    Maybe Belorus is set to become a similar buffer DMZ, under a Putin-Trump undeclared armistice. It’s my turn to not care.

    With any luck, maybe they will arrange for a DMZ (and will fight the next war) on the outskirts of Moscow. That, or Western Europe, work for me.

  32. If this isn’t an exaggeration, Lukashenko is starting to look like Honecker did in 1989.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/14/europe/belarus-protests-riot-police-intl/index.html

    The police joined the protesters in Berlin, too; but some police did so in Beijing also, but not enough.

    I get the sense that Lukashenko is in a weaker position than Li was; but is his position any stronger than Honecker’s was?

    In October 1989, Berliners chanted “Save us, Gorby!”

    Will they chant “Save us, Vova!” in Minsk?

    Putin might see an opportunity to get a more reliable partner in power. The Western elite might go along with it if there were neoliberal economic reforms. Putin might even appreciate such reforms, since he allegedly sees himself as a Russian Pinochet, and Russian business leaders might be salivating over the prospect of buying Belorussian assets for peanuts, like they did in Russia in the 1990s.

  33. @Hyperborean
    @A123


    So we agree.
     
    You shouldn't twist my words.

    But given the cluelessness of this statement perhaps I shouldn't bother:

    They working on the plan to kick Germany’s economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.
     

    Replies: @A123

    If we do i t agree, then I am baffled by the inconsistency and incomprehensiblity of your indiscernible position.

    — I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.

    U.S., Russia, and Poland all support a strong pro-Russian leader in Belarus.

    So, are you agreeing?
    Or, disagreeing?

    They working on

    Ok…. guilty of a grammar foul.

    It should have read … They are working on

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @A123


    — I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.
     
    You think a colour revolution is a mistake.

    Putin, going by his public statements, wants deeper integration with Russia - this is something which may be possible with a weak Lukashenko but definitely not with a strong one.

    Pompeo wants increased sanctions if Luka doesn't go.
    https://tass.com/world/1189069

    Polish President and PM have expressed their support for colour revolution.


    Poland on Monday called for an emergency European Union summit on the situation in Belarus after clashes in the night in Minsk over a disputed presidential election.

    "The authorities have used force against their citizens, who are demanding change in the country. We must support the Belarusian people in their quest for freedom," Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in a statement.

    Morawiecki said he had written to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel with the request for a summit.

    [...]

    In a joint statement on Sunday, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had urged Belarus "to fully recognise and uphold basic democratic standards" including freedom of speech.

    "We are convinced that closer cooperation with the European Union is in the interest of Belarus... and stand ready to continue to provide further support to Belarus in deepening its relations with the united European family," they wrote.
     

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08/11/poland-calls-for-eu-summit-on-belarus.html

    So you can see who is disagreeing with you.


    It should have read … They are working on
     
    That's not the problem. The problem is that removing occupation forces is not a punishment for Germany and does nothing to harm Germany's "economy and national stature".

    Given what it means to receive American "help", I wish USA "punished" Europeans like this more often.

    Furthermore, there is the geographical issue. Even if we assume that present-day NATO is intended to defend Germany against Russian infantry, then Poland's status as a buffer state simply means that they get to take more of the punches intended for Germany (though most of the withdrawn troops won't go to Poland).

    Replies: @A123

  34. @Beckow
    @A123


    ...The best outcome for Russia, Poland, U.S., and Belarus is a strong pro-Russian regime that will not generate refugees.
     
    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated, and as quickly as possible. The elite string-pullers behind the leaders of those countries have as one of their top priorities to have migrants, refugees, 'students', whomever - that's the goal, all else is noise.

    They know that in nicely heterogeneous and mutually hostile societies with an oversupply of labor they will be ruling more securely. All else is usually sacrificed to achieve this goal - they know that without it the wobbly house of cards they have created would collapse very quickly. There will be more migrants as long as they rule over us, come fire or high water, they will keep on coming - it's not a mistake, it's what the system is built on.

    Replies: @A123

    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated

    Who is “they”? Be specific.

    There is no reason to believe that Duda/Kaczyński, Trump, or Putin want a surge in refugees from Belarus to Poland.

    The UN/NWO, George IslamoSoros, and the Open Muslim Society Foundation would encourage such a thing, but without a national champion (and funder) they cannot run a civil war by themselves.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @A123


    ...Be specific.
     
    I referred to the 'elites behind the leaders'. The leaders following what the elites want are in Germany, France, UK, US - in spite of the cheap verbose circus that Trump has been performing, in terms of substance he has done nothing. I would remind you that we never look back at previous leaders based on what they said in their speeches, we look at what they did.

    Russia is a separate case, but the same cheap-labor business dynamic seems to have huge influence over Putin. Poland does what she is told to do, or even better, Poland anticipates the wishes of its masters and tries to exceed the expectations, Duda, Kacsinski, Tusk - they are all eager beavers trying to please. They will take the migrants if told to do so.

  35. @Beckow
    @Swedish Family

    I would not say so. Pompeo is in V4 drumming up real and symbolic actions that are not Merkel's priorities. He is snubbing her in her own neighbourhood. V4 was explicitly created as an anti-German coalition, there are some games being played.

    Pompeo asked in Prague for energy and telecomm concessions - basically: 'buy from us and not from Russia-China'. But no discounts, so it will go nowhere. (Pompeo: "Do you want to buy a hamburger from us for twice the price? We will like you and visit more if you buy." Czechs: "Yeah, you are a great guy, maybe next year. But it was nice to see you, come back soon.")

    In Warsaw he wants as big and as permanent bases as possible for US to threaten Kaliningrad. It is making Poland into a potential land zero in any (nuclear) conflict and only Poles are irrational enough to do it. Czechs are infamously cynical and never play a role of a target.

    Replies: @A123

    In Warsaw he [Trump] wants as big and as permanent bases as possible for US to threaten Kaliningrad.

    Of course not. There are much more important objectives…

    In Warsaw, Trump wants big and permanent bases for the US to target SJW Globalist power centers in Frankfurt, Bonn, and Berlin.

    Can we have WARSAW PACT II, joining Russia, Poland, and the U.S. as allies against the Dark Heart of Europe?

    PEACE 😇

    • Troll: Haruto Rat
  36. @A123
    @Hyperborean


    Are you familiar with the Kaczyński brothers and the Smolensk crash?
     
    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented "Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance". Duda is way smarter than that.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

    Poles don’t mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months, and unlike Ukrainians, there are no uncomfortable “contradictions” with Polish historical narratives (e.g. the whole UPA/Bandera thing).

    • Replies: @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Poles don’t mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months
     
    3 months! Interesting, and good to know. Thanks.

    Even though they are favorable for assimilation... Given limited jobs, tight budgets, and pandemic risk, may I still be skeptical of Poland wanting a large number of Belarus refugees this winter?

    I am not sure that I can buy Duda/Kaczyński wanting to start The Rumble with Russia. Even if they do, this fight & right now both seem unlikely.

    PEACE 😇
    , @justiana
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.

    Replies: @A123, @Not Raul

  37. I just wanted to say that Lukashenko is the last Aryan President worthy of any hope. Orbán? He considers Hungarians Turks and banned Richard Spencer. Whereas the Father of White Russia has warded his country of both the EU and the NATO, both fags and immigrants…

    I learned of this looming civil war only recently, on 7 August. I’m not surprised – even though the country is fairly uniform, Western dogs will always find a way to howl and growl.

    Now I am waiting. Will Lukashenko be worthy for the last sons of Belarus to die for? Or will he flee like Wilhelm II and Yanukovich did?

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  38. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Poles don't mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months, and unlike Ukrainians, there are no uncomfortable "contradictions" with Polish historical narratives (e.g. the whole UPA/Bandera thing).

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

    Poles don’t mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months

    3 months! Interesting, and good to know. Thanks.

    Even though they are favorable for assimilation… Given limited jobs, tight budgets, and pandemic risk, may I still be skeptical of Poland wanting a large number of Belarus refugees this winter?

    I am not sure that I can buy Duda/Kaczyński wanting to start The Rumble with Russia. Even if they do, this fight & right now both seem unlikely.

    PEACE 😇

  39. @Pop Warner
    @mal

    Lukashenko could become a darling of American media if he claims that Trump and Putin colluded to remove him from power. Anything he did before would be forgotten, all sins forgiven. As long as he keeps up the conspiracy theories about Russia that russophobe journalists salivate over he too can be turned into a saint, just like Saint Floyd of Fentanyl. The memory of the average cable news viewer is so short and their knowledge of the world outside the US so limited that it can easily be pulled off.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @inertial

    Better to be a dictator than gay

    They will never forgive him for this powerful comment

  40. @A123
    @utu


    it is possible that the US and Poland would prefer Lukashenko
     
    It is impossible:

    -- Trump wants to work with Putin in Syria. There is 0% chance Trump would put that at risk for a Belarus.
    -- Poland has a tight budget and shares Russia's concerns about possible winter refugees from Belarus.
    -- Also, Duda would like Putin to oppose the SJW Globalism espoused by Merkel and other interventionist EU Elites. Driving Russia and Germany closer together is obviously counter productive.

    Merkel has only two options:

    -A- Joining the Putin/Trump/Duda side in opposition to a UN/NWO color revolution.
    -B- Opposing Putin/Trump/Duda by supporting a UN/NWO color revolution.

    Otoh people on the street level do not think in geopolitical terms and the alternative EU vs. Russia is not on the forefront of their awareness. They want better life that is more free and more colorful.
     
    I am not sure about colorful.

    They certainly want a bigger share of the fruits of their labor than Lukashenko is providing. Having more spending power certainly gives more freedom, so I will agree with you on that limited point.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Aedib

    Poland instincts is “everything Russian is bad and evil. We must oppose to Russia even if we die”.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Aedib


    Poland instincts is “everything Russian is bad and evil. We must oppose to Russia even if we die”.
     
    20-30 years ago I would have agreed.

    Ever since the EU turned on Christianity and began persecuting Poland and Hungary.... The vibe I get is more, “everything Mutti Mullah Merkel is bad and evil. We must oppose to Merkel's Caliphate even if we die”.

    The magazine cover below shows how intensely Poland hates and fears Mullah Merkel's EU.

    PEACE 😇
    .
    http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/02/18/10/wSieci.jpg
  41. @A123
    @Hyperborean

    If we do i t agree, then I am baffled by the inconsistency and incomprehensiblity of your indiscernible position.

    -- I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    -- Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.

    U.S., Russia, and Poland all support a strong pro-Russian leader in Belarus.

    So, are you agreeing?
    Or, disagreeing?


    They working on
     
    Ok.... guilty of a grammar foul.

    It should have read ... They are working on

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Hyperborean

    — I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.

    You think a colour revolution is a mistake.

    Putin, going by his public statements, wants deeper integration with Russia – this is something which may be possible with a weak Lukashenko but definitely not with a strong one.

    Pompeo wants increased sanctions if Luka doesn’t go.
    https://tass.com/world/1189069

    Polish President and PM have expressed their support for colour revolution.

    Poland on Monday called for an emergency European Union summit on the situation in Belarus after clashes in the night in Minsk over a disputed presidential election.

    “The authorities have used force against their citizens, who are demanding change in the country. We must support the Belarusian people in their quest for freedom,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in a statement.

    Morawiecki said he had written to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel with the request for a summit.

    […]

    In a joint statement on Sunday, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had urged Belarus “to fully recognise and uphold basic democratic standards” including freedom of speech.

    “We are convinced that closer cooperation with the European Union is in the interest of Belarus… and stand ready to continue to provide further support to Belarus in deepening its relations with the united European family,” they wrote.

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08/11/poland-calls-for-eu-summit-on-belarus.html

    So you can see who is disagreeing with you.

    It should have read … They are working on

    That’s not the problem. The problem is that removing occupation forces is not a punishment for Germany and does nothing to harm Germany’s “economy and national stature”.

    Given what it means to receive American “help”, I wish USA “punished” Europeans like this more often.

    Furthermore, there is the geographical issue. Even if we assume that present-day NATO is intended to defend Germany against Russian infantry, then Poland’s status as a buffer state simply means that they get to take more of the punches intended for Germany (though most of the withdrawn troops won’t go to Poland).

    • Replies: @A123
    @Hyperborean


    Polish President and PM have expressed their support for colour revolution.

    Poland on Monday called for an emergency European Union summit on the situation in Belarus after clashes in the night in Minsk over a disputed presidential election.
     

    Poland is channeling pure Trump style 5-D chess communication. Almost everyone missed it:

    -- The EU stands against democracy.
    -- The EU especially hates democracy in Poland.
    -- Poland just maneuvered the EU to where they have to support Democracy in Poland & Belarus.

    It does not have the deft touch of Trump, but it should be enough. Poland's call for a "pro-democracy" summit has preempted any EU attempt to exploit the issue. There will never be an anti-Elite EU response that the PiS can wield in support of honest democracy in Poland.

    Having a Summit for a color revolution guarantees that there will be no EU support for a color revolution.

    PEACE 😇

  42. @Aedib
    @A123

    Poland instincts is “everything Russian is bad and evil. We must oppose to Russia even if we die”.

    Replies: @A123

    Poland instincts is “everything Russian is bad and evil. We must oppose to Russia even if we die”.

    20-30 years ago I would have agreed.

    Ever since the EU turned on Christianity and began persecuting Poland and Hungary…. The vibe I get is more, “everything Mutti Mullah Merkel is bad and evil. We must oppose to Merkel’s Caliphate even if we die”.

    The magazine cover below shows how intensely Poland hates and fears Mullah Merkel’s EU.

    PEACE 😇
    .

  43. @Hyperborean
    @A123


    — I think a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Putin thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Trump thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake.
    — Poland thinks a color revolution in Belarus is a mistake. Or is at least willing to go along with Putin/Trump.
     
    You think a colour revolution is a mistake.

    Putin, going by his public statements, wants deeper integration with Russia - this is something which may be possible with a weak Lukashenko but definitely not with a strong one.

    Pompeo wants increased sanctions if Luka doesn't go.
    https://tass.com/world/1189069

    Polish President and PM have expressed their support for colour revolution.


    Poland on Monday called for an emergency European Union summit on the situation in Belarus after clashes in the night in Minsk over a disputed presidential election.

    "The authorities have used force against their citizens, who are demanding change in the country. We must support the Belarusian people in their quest for freedom," Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in a statement.

    Morawiecki said he had written to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel with the request for a summit.

    [...]

    In a joint statement on Sunday, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had urged Belarus "to fully recognise and uphold basic democratic standards" including freedom of speech.

    "We are convinced that closer cooperation with the European Union is in the interest of Belarus... and stand ready to continue to provide further support to Belarus in deepening its relations with the united European family," they wrote.
     

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/08/11/poland-calls-for-eu-summit-on-belarus.html

    So you can see who is disagreeing with you.


    It should have read … They are working on
     
    That's not the problem. The problem is that removing occupation forces is not a punishment for Germany and does nothing to harm Germany's "economy and national stature".

    Given what it means to receive American "help", I wish USA "punished" Europeans like this more often.

    Furthermore, there is the geographical issue. Even if we assume that present-day NATO is intended to defend Germany against Russian infantry, then Poland's status as a buffer state simply means that they get to take more of the punches intended for Germany (though most of the withdrawn troops won't go to Poland).

    Replies: @A123

    Polish President and PM have expressed their support for colour revolution.

    Poland on Monday called for an emergency European Union summit on the situation in Belarus after clashes in the night in Minsk over a disputed presidential election.

    Poland is channeling pure Trump style 5-D chess communication. Almost everyone missed it:

    — The EU stands against democracy.
    — The EU especially hates democracy in Poland.
    — Poland just maneuvered the EU to where they have to support Democracy in Poland & Belarus.

    It does not have the deft touch of Trump, but it should be enough. Poland’s call for a “pro-democracy” summit has preempted any EU attempt to exploit the issue. There will never be an anti-Elite EU response that the PiS can wield in support of honest democracy in Poland.

    Having a Summit for a color revolution guarantees that there will be no EU support for a color revolution.

    PEACE 😇

  44. EU driving Belarus to Russian arms?

    EU does not accept Belarus election results, preparing sanctions – Foreign policy chief Borrell

    https://www.rt.com/news/498060-eu-sanctions-belarus-election/

  45. @Pop Warner
    @mal

    Lukashenko could become a darling of American media if he claims that Trump and Putin colluded to remove him from power. Anything he did before would be forgotten, all sins forgiven. As long as he keeps up the conspiracy theories about Russia that russophobe journalists salivate over he too can be turned into a saint, just like Saint Floyd of Fentanyl. The memory of the average cable news viewer is so short and their knowledge of the world outside the US so limited that it can easily be pulled off.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @inertial

    Gaddafi’s example shows that nothing is ever forgiven. Once you are designated a bloody dictator, it’s forever. They may be nice to you for a while if it suits them but will squash you at the first opportunity.

  46. @Beckow
    @Colour revolution


    They are marching towards unemployment!!!
     
    ...not by bread alone! - pleasing eternal slogan preached by the uppermost Western meme-maker almost 2,000 years ago.

    They also have dreams. Why wouldn't Luka's workers have dreams and aspirations?
    3rd rate Italian hotels are staring empty, waiting for the wide-eyed Belarus middle class dreamers who want to see the world...and maybe clean a few toilets while visiting. It's always the same.

    Replies: @justiana

    Holy fuck man stop! This is so true.

  47. @Hyperborean
    @A123


    Of course. The Poles are pissed at the Russians over an avoidable aircraft crash. There is blame to go around on that catastrophe.

    However, there is no rational reason to believe that Duda would flood Poland with refugees by triggering unmanageable disorder in Belarus. That would take patented “Merkel Ultra-stupidity & Arrogance“. Duda is way smarter than that.
     

    If you are familiar with Jaroslaw Kaczyński, then you should know that Duda doesn't actually control the country.

    Additionally, setting aside that Poland is already on its way to becoming a country of immigration and both general Polish perceived defensive interests and Polish hegemonist ambitions, the instability resulting from a weak Lukashenko régime is just as likely to produce refugees as the instability from a new pro-American régime.

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

    Holy fuck man stop! This is so true.

  48. New quest for the White-Red-Whites: finally convince the Hexagon to stop using Biélorussie and start using Bélarus.

    https://www.cairn.info/revue-etudes-2006-7-page-9.htm#

  49. @Anatoly Karlin
    @A123

    Poles don't mind Belorussian migrants/refugees any more than Russians. They sync well, Russophones can pick up Polish in ~3 months, and unlike Ukrainians, there are no uncomfortable "contradictions" with Polish historical narratives (e.g. the whole UPA/Bandera thing).

    Replies: @A123, @justiana

    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @A123
    @justiana


    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.
     
    Which incidentally illustrates the number of different possible perspectives on an apparently simple fact set.

    As long as Panslavia is Christian, I am all for it. Panslavia would fight SJW Islamic Globalism and its Dhimmi slave/collaborators. If one could find the way to bury some very stubborn historical issues, Christian Poland and Christian Russia would make divine allies.

    Those who hate Christianity, and want a sexually deviant SJW color revolution in Belarus would be appalled.

    Look at the number of people who keep trying to mischaracterize me as close to Merkel. The only reason why I object to burning Merkel at the Stake is that it would be unfair to the Stake. How has the Stake transgressed that it must suffer the indignity of being tied to Merkel? It would be a crime against humanity trees.

    PEACE 😇
    , @Not Raul
    @justiana

    Slavs are more divided by religion than by language.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

  50. @justiana
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.

    Replies: @A123, @Not Raul

    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.

    Which incidentally illustrates the number of different possible perspectives on an apparently simple fact set.

    As long as Panslavia is Christian, I am all for it. Panslavia would fight SJW Islamic Globalism and its Dhimmi slave/collaborators. If one could find the way to bury some very stubborn historical issues, Christian Poland and Christian Russia would make divine allies.

    Those who hate Christianity, and want a sexually deviant SJW color revolution in Belarus would be appalled.

    Look at the number of people who keep trying to mischaracterize me as close to Merkel. The only reason why I object to burning Merkel at the Stake is that it would be unfair to the Stake. How has the Stake transgressed that it must suffer the indignity of being tied to Merkel? It would be a crime against humanity trees.

    PEACE 😇

  51. So many panracial attempts and none of them worked out. I would be extremely skeptical of that type of proposition.

  52. @A123
    @Beckow


    But they want refugees. They want as much migration and heterogeneity as can be generated
     
    Who is "they"? Be specific.

    There is no reason to believe that Duda/Kaczyński, Trump, or Putin want a surge in refugees from Belarus to Poland.

    The UN/NWO, George IslamoSoros, and the Open Muslim Society Foundation would encourage such a thing, but without a national champion (and funder) they cannot run a civil war by themselves.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Beckow

    …Be specific.

    I referred to the ‘elites behind the leaders‘. The leaders following what the elites want are in Germany, France, UK, US – in spite of the cheap verbose circus that Trump has been performing, in terms of substance he has done nothing. I would remind you that we never look back at previous leaders based on what they said in their speeches, we look at what they did.

    Russia is a separate case, but the same cheap-labor business dynamic seems to have huge influence over Putin. Poland does what she is told to do, or even better, Poland anticipates the wishes of its masters and tries to exceed the expectations, Duda, Kacsinski, Tusk – they are all eager beavers trying to please. They will take the migrants if told to do so.

    • LOL: AP
  53. @justiana
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Psst! Do not tell them how close all those slavic languages are. Or people. Then this panslavismus idea might not look like lunacy.

    Replies: @A123, @Not Raul

    Slavs are more divided by religion than by language.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @Not Raul

    What I find amusing is that the sort of people who say all Slavs should be one country, are the sort of people who would love to see Scotland leave the UK and a United Ireland. What's good for them isn't good for us it would seem.

    I've literally seen some of the more rabid Slavic nationalists (presumably Russian or at least pro-Russian) on this site say there is less difference between a Russian and a Pole than an Englishman and a Scotsman, which is just an absurd notion on every level.

    Replies: @Epigon, @Anatoly Karlin

  54. @Not Raul
    @justiana

    Slavs are more divided by religion than by language.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    What I find amusing is that the sort of people who say all Slavs should be one country, are the sort of people who would love to see Scotland leave the UK and a United Ireland. What’s good for them isn’t good for us it would seem.

    I’ve literally seen some of the more rabid Slavic nationalists (presumably Russian or at least pro-Russian) on this site say there is less difference between a Russian and a Pole than an Englishman and a Scotsman, which is just an absurd notion on every level.

    • Replies: @Epigon
    @Europe Europa

    Would you be so kind and quote or at least name a single commentor who desires a pan-Slavic state?

    I wouldn’t want anything to do with (other) Slavs - and Russians have paid the ultimate price for assisting the damned biomass that the Slavs in general are.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Europe Europa

    The obsession.

  55. @Europe Europa
    @Not Raul

    What I find amusing is that the sort of people who say all Slavs should be one country, are the sort of people who would love to see Scotland leave the UK and a United Ireland. What's good for them isn't good for us it would seem.

    I've literally seen some of the more rabid Slavic nationalists (presumably Russian or at least pro-Russian) on this site say there is less difference between a Russian and a Pole than an Englishman and a Scotsman, which is just an absurd notion on every level.

    Replies: @Epigon, @Anatoly Karlin

    Would you be so kind and quote or at least name a single commentor who desires a pan-Slavic state?

    I wouldn’t want anything to do with (other) Slavs – and Russians have paid the ultimate price for assisting the damned biomass that the Slavs in general are.

  56. Belarus affairs on socia media:

    “A Jew, a Polak, a Ukrop, a Latvian and a Lithuanian enter the comment section”

  57. @A123
    @Beckow


    And Pompeo is today in Prague for a reason.
     
    Yes. And, we know what that reason is.

    They working on the plan to kick Germany's economy and national stature by relocating a highly symbolic and valuable military installation to Poland.

    One can be sure that Turkey's new provocations and Belarus will be discussed, but there is no reason to believe that policy will come out of that. This meeting is about humiliating the EU Elites for a total absence of credible policy. They do not want to step on that symbolism.

    Trump is backing Putin. And, Duda wants the base relocation.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @A123, @Europe Europa

    Poland is the EU, and is not at all pro-Russian so I don’t see how Trump moving military bases to Poland can be construed as an anti-EU gesture or a pro-Russian gesture.

    I would imagine Trump’s decision to move the bases to Poland is a pragmatic one. Poland is now a lot wealthier and more developed than it used to be, so there is now no real disadvantage or potential infrastructure problems in having the bases in Poland rather than Germany, and is also geographically closer to the perceived threat, which is Russia.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Europe Europa


    geographically closer to the perceived threat, which is Russia.
     
    Except.... Trump does not view Christian Russia as a threat. Trump views Christian Russia as strong nation that is a potential ally. Moving the base from Germany to Poland has nothing, nada, ziltch, to do with Russia.

    Trump views Germany as an adversary (or at least an impedement). Merkel is profoundly incompent, arrogant, and untrustworthy. She has reduced Germany's military to a joke: (1)

    Less than four percent of Germany’s Typhoon fighters were capable of combat. Ironically 31 percent of the older (and being retired) Tornado fighters were operational. Newer equipment tended to be worse off. Only 13 percent of the NH90 transport helicopters were ready and only 16 percent of the Tiger helicopter gunships. Even more dismal was the number of these military aircraft Germany has (114 Typhoons, 93 Tornados, 40 NH90s and 43 Tigers). This discouraging data is nothing new.
     
    Why should the U.S. pay for German security?

    The situation is so bad that Poland might be able to invade Germany and win.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20180527.aspx
  58. @Europe Europa
    @Not Raul

    What I find amusing is that the sort of people who say all Slavs should be one country, are the sort of people who would love to see Scotland leave the UK and a United Ireland. What's good for them isn't good for us it would seem.

    I've literally seen some of the more rabid Slavic nationalists (presumably Russian or at least pro-Russian) on this site say there is less difference between a Russian and a Pole than an Englishman and a Scotsman, which is just an absurd notion on every level.

    Replies: @Epigon, @Anatoly Karlin

    The obsession.

  59. @A123
    @Swedish Family

    I did not make Pompeo's travel plans. And, my characterization of them is not unique: (1)


    In his talks, Pompeo will likely face questions about the Trump administration’s decision to reduce the U.S. military presence in Germany. Pompeo did not address the matter in his comments on Tuesday. President Donald Trump wants to withdraw thousands of American troops from bases in Germany and redeploy some of them eastward, including to neighboring Poland, the last stop on Pompeo’s week-long trip.

    Two of Pompeo’s other three destinations — the Czech Republic and Austria — also share a border with Germany, while Slovakia borders Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland. Germany is pointedly not on Pompeo’s itinerary.
     
    How would you characterize the itinerary for Pompeo's "NATO but no Germany" trip?

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.wowktv.com/news/u-s-world/pompeo-opens-anti-china-anti-russia-tour-in-czech-republic/

    If you read the article, notice it is from Associated Press [AP] which has a track record of antipathy towards Putin.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

    How would you characterize the itinerary for Pompeo’s “NATO but no Germany” trip?

    Pompeo leaving out Germany from his travel plan is neither here nor there.

    Your claim that Germany lacks regional influence is not only wrong, but the exact opposite of reality. Germany is the EU’s foremost power broker by quite some distance.

  60. @Europe Europa
    @A123

    Poland is the EU, and is not at all pro-Russian so I don't see how Trump moving military bases to Poland can be construed as an anti-EU gesture or a pro-Russian gesture.

    I would imagine Trump's decision to move the bases to Poland is a pragmatic one. Poland is now a lot wealthier and more developed than it used to be, so there is now no real disadvantage or potential infrastructure problems in having the bases in Poland rather than Germany, and is also geographically closer to the perceived threat, which is Russia.

    Replies: @A123

    geographically closer to the perceived threat, which is Russia.

    Except…. Trump does not view Christian Russia as a threat. Trump views Christian Russia as strong nation that is a potential ally. Moving the base from Germany to Poland has nothing, nada, ziltch, to do with Russia.

    Trump views Germany as an adversary (or at least an impedement). Merkel is profoundly incompent, arrogant, and untrustworthy. She has reduced Germany’s military to a joke: (1)

    Less than four percent of Germany’s Typhoon fighters were capable of combat. Ironically 31 percent of the older (and being retired) Tornado fighters were operational. Newer equipment tended to be worse off. Only 13 percent of the NH90 transport helicopters were ready and only 16 percent of the Tiger helicopter gunships. Even more dismal was the number of these military aircraft Germany has (114 Typhoons, 93 Tornados, 40 NH90s and 43 Tigers). This discouraging data is nothing new.

    Why should the U.S. pay for German security?

    The situation is so bad that Poland might be able to invade Germany and win.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20180527.aspx

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