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Karabakh War 2020: 16 Days
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It’s been 16 days since the start of Karabakh War II.

Since social media analysis isn’t going to catch all the Azeri losses, we can conclude that the Azeri losses are twice as high as the Armenian ones. Much better than the 1:4 or 1:5 ratio during the first war.

Although the number of Syrian jihadists isn’t that high, they did at the start constitute 40% of frontline troops and probably accounted for half of all losses (they are more politically disposable than Azeri conscripts). However, they must be decimated by now (in the literal sense), even assuming there were 5,000 of them i.e. one of the higher numbers. Turkey needs to ferry in more – perhaps from Libya, now that Haftar has been thrown back to Sirte – or almost all the losses will now be falling on the Azeris. On the surface, the Azeris can handle higher casualties, since their population is three times as big and they have four times as many young men; their authoritarian political system also allows them to downplay casualties. OTOH, the Armenians get a morale boost from defending their own lands.

This is a full-fledged war. According to commenter Annatar’s and my estimates, the Armenians are currently losing as many men as a percentage of their population per unit time as the British did during WW1. (Indeed, in just a bit more than 2 weeks, the Armenians have already lost 10% as many soldiers as they did during the first war, when they lost 6,000 over two years of intense fighting). And if we account for higher survivability due to better medical care, the casualty rate may well actually be higher in Karabakh relative to the death rate. So as we see, in an intense combined arms war between two “peer” countries, casualty rates have not declined significantly relative to the world wars of yore. Incidentally, this means that “significant” men – at least by the standards of those countries – are also dying, especially on the Armenian side (since the Azeri population is 3x bigger). For instance, the patriotic singer Kevork Hadjian, one of whose music videos is linked to at the top of this post.

This is an important observation that goes against the conventional wisdom but will certainly be of relevance to potential Great Power conventional wars this century.

The Azeris are making slow, grinding advances, capturing around 325 sq km of territory or 2.8% of Artsakh over the past two weeks (that’s 20 sq km per day). At least on paper, they have greater combat power than the Armenians, by a factor of around 3 according to my CMP index. But as also noted before, the Armenians are not just on the defense, but fighting in mountainous positions that limits the possibilities of armor and forces the Azeris into infantry-heavy attacks. The Azeris are also less competent soldiers than the Armenians and they don’t have the equivalent of elite German alpine divisions (commenter Annatar notes the history of the German 5th Mountain division, which scaled a 2,100 m snowy pass and broke the Greek defence lines in 3 day).

There was, on paper, agreement to a Russian-brokered ceasefire, but it never went into effect. The Azeris show no interest in respecting it. Why should they when they are advancing. As of today, they seem to be at the verge of taking Hadrut.

I don’t think there’s much point in predicting the ultimate outcome of the war since it is too dependent on contingent factors. Outright Russian intervention – or Turkish, for that matter – will seal the deal for their respective proteges. Azeri drone attrition has been high and they have tapered down their use over the past week, obviously they will need resupply from Turkey – especially now that they have seized most of the less easily defended plains and will now have to pass through winding mountain valleys. Fresh jihadist meat will also be of use since as per above it keeps politically sensitive Azeri casualties down (Syria? Libya? Afghanistan?). Though procuring it will not be entirely trivial, after all Azerbaijan is a secular Shi’ite state, and even Afghans might balk at being sent into a meat grinder – even if the $1,500 salaries the Turks offer them is insanely high by Afghan standards. Of course Armenia is also suffering a great deal of attrition, so their continuation of this high-intensity war is likewise conditional on Russia supplying them and Iran keeping those supply routes open. So it’s really too close to call IMO.

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. mal says:

    While my generalship skills are as deep as the comfort of my armchair, I think it outcome will hinge on the Azeri ability to maintain drone campaign pressure.

    On the subject of casualties, attacking fortified positions in the mountains is usually insanely difficult, so Azeri losses are probably expected.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
  3. Justiana says:

    It is only 2 weeks. If drone warfare will continue as it is, Armenia might run out of the artillery pieces. And artillery is basically one thing keeping Azeri at distance. Armenia is in this alone. There second wave is covid-19 coming to Europe and elections in USA. Azeris might be in stepankerk in few months, once World take notices.

    • Replies: @Lot
  4. Dreadilk says:

    Interesting to observe but I am completely apathetic if not a little “serves them right” for sucking western cock. Having armenian friends balances that out a tiny bit so does them being Christian vs muslims.

    Kyrgyzstan is also interesting to observe. Basic color revolution that is being thrown back easily by military. Tells you everything you need to know about color revolution’s actual power. That it is jack shit if you don’t have a significant percentage of local elite on your side from get go. The side you are overthrowing has to be truly weak in most respects. Seems best guarantee of power in any nation is the military and woe on to any ruling faction to ignore that or to be afraid to use it.

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  5. I’ve seen more news about Belarus than this during the last week. It really is bizarre. In particular considering how aggressive the rhetoric from Turkey and Azerbaijan has been.
    The Armenian diaspora are trying to raise awareness and lobby for intervention but are not succeeding very well. Sadly for them System of a Down isn’t popular anymore. There is Kim Kardashian and while she has tweeted about the war her activism is very halfhearted.

  6. Dreadilk says:
    @mal

    Armenians had outdated AA systems. If they get a resupply I would imagine it would be with that in mind.

    • Agree: mal
  7. Dreadilk says:
    @Shortsword

    Armenians were stupid for trying to switch sides from Russian sphere to Western. No one in the west was going to guarantee them protection before Turkey would act. It takes years of sucking western cock before you are on their mind. Turkey is basically acting during the transition where Armenians can count the least on aid from any side.

    • Agree: Ano4
  8. @Shortsword

    Reinforcements are on their way.

    [MORE]

    • LOL: Vishnugupta, Mr. XYZ, Ano4
    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  9. Mr. XYZ says:

    I’m obviously pro-Armenia on both national self-determination grounds and also because I fear that the Azeris will ethnically cleanse the Armenians en masse from Nagorno-Karabakh if the Azeris will outright conquer much/most/all of Nagorno-Karabakh–and who wants to see Armenians get ethnically cleansed for the second time in 110 years?

  10. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Blinky Bill

    One Kardashian butthole can successfully absorb OVER 9,000 Azeri bullets! 😀

  11. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Dreadilk

    Interesting to observe but I am completely apathetic if not a little “serves them right” for sucking western cock.

    REAL Western cock-suckers reject Eurasia, though! Armenia hasn’t actually done that.

    • Replies: @joniel
  12. Turkey offers Afghans 1500$ for fighting at Azeri land (I presume the recruitment is going to happen in Afghanistan). If you believe this, I would be very dissapointed. I mean this is Russiangate style, let me just say that. 1500$ is insanely high amount of salary for Turkish citizens (Minimum wage is less than 300$ or 250 euro and half of the workers get this.) including doctors, engineers, high level managers etc…(Less than 10% of Turks in Istanbul make more than 1000$). If you pay this, you have an unlimited supply of Turkish citizens (You can look at the Turkish casualties against Kurds, nowadays it’s all about jobless university grads with no hope pursuing career at the military unlike 90s). When you consider the fact that Turkey probably harbors more than 10 million non-citizens (At least 7 million Syrians), you can understand that’s pretty absurd, since you can recruit from these people relatively easily (Most of them earn less than minimum wage.). It was first 1000$ and 4k Syrians, nowadays it’s 5k and 1500$. I can’t fully deny/confirm the presence of Syrians since there isn’t multiple evidences for their existence. I mean ffs there must be a Syrian widow(s) somewhere talking about this, let alone all of dead bodies (Armenians should be able to capture couple of them I guess, that would basically win them war.). Albeit, it’s not impossible for Turkey, to convince Turkmen groups to send to the frotline but I found it pretty stupid. Armenia is not war-torn Syria/Libya, they are as you said are much more capable then avg Arabs. Turkey is at the midst of one of the worst economic conditions since the creation of the Republic, it’s not simply possible to sustain war on 3+1 fronts (Syria-Libya-Armenia and East-Med) while also Gulf countries openly impose boycotts to Turkish goods.

    • Replies: @Annatar
    , @Commentator Mike
  13. My predictions are that Azerbaijan will retake portions of NK but no more than a quarter by the end, and this territory won’t be “integrated” into Azerbaijan, it will be an unliveable new frontier soldiers will dread being sent to for their patrols. A clear victory for the Azeris, but also a very hollow one.

  14. SIMP simp says:

    Armenians are failing to adjust their tactics to drone warfare.
    Warning: violent war footage

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @Aedib
  15. If you’re Armenian and you’re pulling BLM-like maneuvers like stopping traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge, may I suggest that you leave the U.S. immediately and pick up a gun and fight. Not much is worse than plastic Armenians.

  16. @SIMP simp

    Apparently, some (?) Armenians still don’t get that social distancing is just as important in warzone while defending against drone warfare as it is against coronavirus when dealing with it in civilian life 😉

    • LOL: SIMP simp
  17. Svevlad says:

    I propose that Armenia get Nagorno-Karabagh (the small version, not all they occupied) with a corridor, and Armenia will cede a bit of land to Azerbaijan to connect to Nakhichivan

    When Russian birthrates jump up I propose just draining both completely, solve the problem by making it obsolete.

    • Replies: @Yevardian
  18. More than two weeks on, the war is raging. Azeris retook a small portion of Karabakh, less than 3%. So, if we extrapolate linearly and even ignore that fact that the territories taken by Azeris were plains without Armenian population, and those not taken are mountainous with Armenians who lived there for centuries, the war of this intensity will go on for more than a year before Azeris take the whole thing. This is clearly unsustainable. Thus, some kind of compromise is inevitable. I wonder what could be that compromise, as both Armenian and Azeri leaders would not want to have egg on their faces.

    I don’t think that either Turkey or Russia would serve as “deus ex machina”, as the interference of one will inevitably provoke the interference of the other. I see an inescapable stalemate.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    , @LG
    , @Avery
    , @Gerard-Mandela
  19. joniel says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    They are at the bottom of the pyramid scheme along with Greek Cypriots and Ukrainians.

  20. 128 says:

    Why cant’ they just get a ton of 23mm AA from Russia from Cold War stocks?

  21. Tor597 says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I think Russia will intervene earlier than many people here think.

    Any reason you can come up with to not support the Armenians such as being clannish while living in Russia, or not being sufficiently pro Russia does not outweigh the incentive for Russia to keep Turks as far away as possible.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  22. @Shortsword

    I get the nagging feeling that the West supports Azeri-Turkish offensive and this is all a ploy to draw Russia in.

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @Yevardian
    , @El Dato
  23. @Tor597

    Turks are preferable to Americans in the opinion of this Russian. Besides, I doubt that Aliev wants to spend the rest of his life as a Turkish satrap. Once this conflict is resolved, he’ll have no more need for Turkish military instructors and mercenaries.

    • Agree: Gerard.Gerard
    • Troll: LG
    • Replies: @Not Only Wrathful
  24. Annatar says:
    @anonymous599

    People value their lives, asking modern people to risk their lives is not easy, if someone is not driven to fight for ideological reasons but monetary ones, you need to offer a lot of money to make them fight for you.

    There might be a lot of impoverished Syrian refugees in Turkey but most people will prefer to live in poverty with their families as long as it is tolerable to risking their lives even if the monetary reward is very large.

    I’m reminded of the Iliad where it is stated that the poorest man is still better off then the dead, that is certainly how even very poor people think today.

    There might be unemployed Turks, but they almost certainly all prefer to be unemployed and alive then get paid and risk dying.

    • Agree: Rich
    • Replies: @anonymous599
  25. @Felix Keverich

    It doesn’t tend to work that way. Somehow bigger powers, once invited in, normally end up staying. This is why Assad let the Israelis bomb the Iranians and also why Russia was the most preferred ally to him. The Iranians could stay and slowly take over in a way that the Russians would never have been able to.

    The Turks could satrapise Azerbaijan. The Azeri leadership would be wise to be very cautious of allowing strong links to form. What Kim Jong Un did to North Korean clients of the Chinese, the Azeri leadership better be prepared to do to their own.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  26. Max Payne says:

    Full-fledged war…. Where no actor escalates violence outside the AO….

    Try security crisis.

    Unless Baku and Yerevan have been rocketing each other for 2 weeks. Must have missed that.

  27. Ano4 says:

    Armenians have a powerful and wealthy diaspora. They should use their wealth to provide their side with better weapons and money. They should act as Jews would if Israel was attacked. But fact is: Nagorno Karabakh was semi independent for 30 years already and it still has not been recognized as such by anyone, Armenia Included. Compare with Israel adter 30 years of taking the territory to Jewish settlers.

    Armenia still officially recognizes Nagorno Karabakh as Azeri territory. How dumb and cowardly is then to count on others to defend their interests, while their diaspora is not doing its part? While official Yerevan is not doing its part?

    It looks as “call in the Russky Ivan to kick the Turkish Mehmet out of the land I am too coward to officially reclaim. While the dumb Ivan and the ugly Mehmet sort it out, I will continue making money in LA and taking care of my business in Southern France.”

    Well it doesn’t work that way. Use Israel as an example and go balls in into your nation building or continue playing the “Kardashian game” by pretending to be somewhat really relevant to global interests and find if anyone really cares about your curvy Armenian Artsakh

    For those who understand Russian, the blogger below has put it better than me:

    [MORE]

    [M]иллиардер Рубен Варданян обратился к Путину: «Мы на краю катастрофы!»

    Президент Владимир Путин знает об обращениях основателя группы «Тройка Диалог» Рубена Варданяна и миллиардера Самвела Карапетяна, призывавших вмешаться в ситуацию в Нагорном Карабахе. Об этом заявил пресс-секретарь главы государства Дмитрий Песков, передает корреспондент РБК.

    Если ты такой богатый армянин, то почему такой глупый? Для русских вы грабящие Россию армянские мафиози. По уму вам следовало залечь на дно и не напоминать русским о своём армянском существовании

    https://pioneer-lj.livejournal.com/1808987.html

  28. @Not Only Wrathful

    This is why Assad let the Israelis bomb the Iranians

    An “expert” on Egypt’s Al Nas TV station has claimed that Bashar Assad — the Syrian dictator who has maintained his father’s decades-old hostility to Israel and who has blamed Jews for killing Jesus and trying to kill the Prophet Muhammad — is Jewish himself, a descendant of a Jewish dynasty that originated in Isfahan, Iran.

    The Syrian president is “the descendant of a dynasty of a man named Suliman al-Wahash who arrived in Syria in 1860 or 1870 from Isfahan in Iran,” an Egyptian sociologist interviewed by the station claimed. Records show “this to have been a Jewish family,” the interviewee said, in a clip broadcoast by Israel’s Channel 10 news on Thursday.

    • LOL: Ano4, Yevardian
    • Replies: @Ano4
    , @Not Only Wrathful
  29. Yevardian says:
    @Svevlad

    The additional ‘occupied’ areas are almost entirely uninhabited mountains or desert. Regardless, Azerbaijan won’t accept anything less than the complete annexation of Artsakh, at least whilst Turkey continues giving significant support and no other foreign power seriously intervenes. I think the US (and thus the West as a whole) is strenuously avoiding this, especially during the election cycle (to the average voter it looks like Russian-satellite vs Muslims, hence voicing support for either is a loser), which makes it much easier for Russia to wash its hands of the whole mess (i.e., Putin can’t be spin it as a dick-measuring contest with the US).
    Finally, it would make a lot of sense if this whole war was worked-out as some sort of secret overture from Israel to Turkey, they appear to cooperate regarding Syria and Erdogan has gone quiet on Palestine recently. If this is the case (fairly likely) chances of Russia intervening with any more than symbolic gestures are pretty much zero.

    All in all I’m deeply pessimistic.

    • Agree: TheTotallyAnonymous
    • Replies: @LG
  30. Ano4 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    The Shia write something similar about the ancestors of Al Saud.

    https://www.timesheadline.com/middle-east/the-house-of-saud-its-jewish-origin-and-installation-by-the-british-crown-42667.html

    In the Middle Ages, the Abbasid accused the Ismaeli founder of the competing Fatimid dynasty of being a crypto-Jew.

    https://simerg.com/literary-readings/great-moments-in-ismaili-history-the-establishment-of-the-fatimid-caliphate/

    Islanists accuse Kamal Ataturk of being a Doenmeh crypto-Jew.

    https://www.islam-radio.net/ataturk/jewish.htm

    [MORE]

    Luckily for the Muslims that Jews exist to justify their failures. And of course luckily for Jews the Muslims exist, allowing the Jews to pretend being the “beacon of democracy ” in the Middle East.

    They found each other and deserve each other. Let’s wish them all the tough Semitic love they can unleash on each other. It sure will be a wonderful story of brother betraying brother, a brother killing brother, a brother stealing his brother’s inheritance: a truly Biblical and Quranic narrative…

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  31. Pontus111 says:
    @Ano4

    “Russky Ivan”? Like Ivan Bagramyan? or Ivan Isakov?

    I am interested in your sources where Armenians are pleading with Russians to intervene militarily? Diplomatic overtures aside, because Russia itself wants to maintain influence in the region.

    And I don’t mean laughable blogs like the one you have cited, where an Azeri is quoted as a beacon of truth regarding the situation in Armenia towards Russians.

    Likewise the comedic website “smi6.ru” that sole intention is to promote anti-Armenian hysteria, even to the point of using blatant Azeri propaganda. Anything goes there, along with fake social media screenshots.

    Armenians don’t expect Russians to intervene on their behalf when Russians did not retaliate when the Sultan murdered their own pilots.

    Armenians are willing to die and be erased fighting the Turkic horde. They don’t expect another nationality to die for them – this is a myth you enjoy perpetrating (Armenians begging Russians).

    FYI – the diaspora has donated substantially, monetary and with personnel. No different to the first Karabakh war where some mercenaries known as “Ivan” fought alongside the Azeris.

    I’ll leave it to Russians to eventually deal with the budding Sultan, in the long term, your options are limited, he has threatened in the past to use his Muslim brothers in Russia to ensure a detrimental outcome if he is crossed.

    • Agree: Yevardian, LG
    • Replies: @Ano4
  32. @Ano4

    We should stop, AK will be upset with us.

    [MORE]

    Last off topic post from me.

  33. @Blinky Bill

    Whether he is a secret Jew or not, it really doesn’t matter. The Israelis and him had a shared interest in bombing Iran out of Syria, once Iran had helped him to win his war.

    Of course, he isn’t actually a secret Jew, but probably just a smart man who, like all smart people in the Middle East, would rather his country be more like Israel and less like the rest of the region.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  34. Yevardian says:
    @Felix Keverich

    I’m more inclined to think this whole mess is probably just Israel and Turkey acting on their own. I think the US is happy to watch Russia’s borders burn, but I actually don’t think the state department had any involvement with this, except passively supporting Pashinian’s populist coup (although his policies turned out to be the exact opposite), after Sargisyan gave himself another term, after he own-goaled himself by promising to retire several times shortly before that.

    • Agree: LG
  35. Yevardian says:
    @Ano4

    Compare with Israel adter 30 years of taking the territory to Jewish settlers.

    Well it doesn’t work that way. Use Israel as an example and go balls in into your nation building…

    I’m going to be kind and assume you’re just very young, and not simply very stupid.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  36. Ano4 says:
    @Pontus111

    Armenians are willing to die and be erased

    So much grandstanding. Why didn’t Armenia officially recognize Nagorno Karabakh as independent?

    Armenia officially considers Nagorno Karabakh as being part of Azerbaijan.

    FYI – the diaspora has donated substantially, monetary and with personnel.

    Sure after buying a couple more Beverly Hills properties, a half dozen more Rublyovka mansions and a few more apartments in the 16e Arrondissement, the diaspora spent some spare change to show token support to their Artsakh brothers.

    How many billions did your diaspora spend to arm your brothers?

    BTW are you in Artsakh yet? If not when do you plan to attend?

    😄

    • Troll: LG
  37. Ano4 says:
    @Yevardian

    No I am old enough to remember Sumgayt massacre of Armenians and Nagorno Karabakh ethnic cleansing of Azeris. And clever enough to understand that Armenians and Azeris deserve each other. Just like Jews and Arabs deserve each other.We should have nothing at all to do with your thousands of years of Levantine shenanigans.

    Сами, всё сами…

    • Disagree: AltanBakshi
  38. @Ano4

    So, why is Russia involved in Syria?

    • Replies: @Ano4
  39. Yevardian says:
    @Ano4

    Well then, next time you ask why Armenia doesn’t attract armed-settlers worldwide to slowly and continuously expunge Caucasian Albania of Turks, perhaps you might suggest Russia subsidise Armenia to the tune of say, 3 billion US dollars a year? A modest proposal.

    So, why is Russia involved in Syria?

    To spite the US, of course (not a factor here). And a Mediterranean port.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  40. El Dato says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Judging from the news coverage, it is suspicious indeed.

    Has The Economist already had a full cover about this?

    You know, like in 2008?

    NO!

    https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/archive?year=2020

    Although Navalny risibly makes it as one of Putin’s “fear factors”, apparently.

  41. @Not Only Wrathful

    Alawites are an ancient, mysterious and strongly closed community(Harran?), they really don’t have any links or connections to Jews. But Donmeh were supporters of Young Turks and Ataturk. They probably also supported the destruction of the Armenians in the Ottoman empire.

    Even the father of the Zionism, Herzl was ready to give his support to the Ottoman state.

    https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/herzls-sell-out-of-armenians-1.5357026

    But still almost all Armenians I have met, are naive regarding the collaboration between Ottoman elites and other groups, like Kurds and Donmeh, during the preparation and execution of the genocide.

    Donmeh Community and their East European Frankist offshoot are an extremely interesting topic, both groups were very, or still are, antinomian…

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    , @Not Raul
  42. Ano4 says:
    @Agathoklis

    Cause Putin needs muh pipeline for Gazprom. You seem to not understand that Putin and his clique are as Russian patriots as Trump and his clique are American patriots. These are frontmen and talking heads for oligarchic groups that only truly care for their wealth and power. They don’t care about blood and soil…

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  43. Ano4 says:
    @Yevardian

    3 billion US dollars a year? A modest proposal.

    How many billions do you think Armenian diaspora in Russia transferred to Armenia and the offshore banks each year? These billions that should have stayed in Russia and been used for the betterment of the Russian people?

    Xachi (or is it Ara?) don’t take me for a fool. You know that Russo-Armenian relationship is extractive and skewed towards Armenian interests. And if your diaspora moguls do not share with the poor folks in Karabakh, then it is not Russians’ problem.

    Make them cough some of their wealth, arm yourself and go onto a Reconquista of the Lake Van and Ararat. Stop whining like a girl…

    • Agree: AP
    • Troll: LG
    • Replies: @Yevardian
  44. @Ano4

    Blut und boden? My my, what Nazi vibes you are giving lately?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  45. @AltanBakshi

    He’s just giving the Armenians what they want.

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
  46. @anonymous599

    Do these Islamist mercenaries get paid at the start of their service or at the end of each month’s service, that is if they survive a month? They could in fact cost nothing as promises of such salaries are just circulated to attract fools. And trust a Turk not to pay them with a 1$ bullet in the head instead if they happen to survive their month in combat. And with such a large pool of potential fighters in those refugee camps they can send out numerous shills for much less to lie about how they collected their salary, that is if this even lasts a month. It’s not as if this is the Foreign Legion.

  47. @Commentator Mike

    I believe that just as with the perpetrator of terror acts, if the individuals in question die, payouts continue to their families. As such, many are highly motivated even in risky situations since it can be one of the ways to assure a good life for their surviving relatives.

  48. Lot says:
    @Justiana

    This gradual Armenian defeat makes Russia look weak and unreliable. Muslim Turks invading a former USSR Christian population, and Russia stands by, too poor and distracted and uninfluential to stop it.

    Putinfans will always defend him, but there’s no defense to these very basic and obvious facts.

    Time to get expansionist dictatorship Turkey out of NATO asap too. This war plus Libya provides a great pretext.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Dreadilk
    , @Yevardian
  49. Epigon says:

    Armenians in NG and Armenia obviously have very little in common with diasporafags, and are apparently more than ready to offer their lives in defense of the remnant of their ancestral lands.

    I can’t see a valid reason for disparaging mostly impoverished people (common folk in both NG and Armenia) due to the actions of degenerates in the diaspora, and I have to sympathize with Armenians who have been on the receiving end of history since 1071.

  50. @Epigon

    I mostly agree with you but why the year 1071? Byzantines had very complicated and often not warm relations with the Monophysite or Miaphysite Armenians.

    Arab Caliphate conquered Armenia in 645.
    Before that Armenia was hundreds of years the borderland and battleground between the Roman empire and the Sassanids/Parthians.

    • Replies: @Epigon
    , @Yevardian
  51. Ano4 says:

    Russia gave every possible opportunities of success to Armenians emigrating there: Russian deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister are of Armenian descent. There are more Armenians living in Russia than in any other country of the world, with the exception of Armenia itself.

    Now please see comment # 45. These are pictures taken in 2018-2019 in Armenia. They manifested against Russian military presence and elected a Sorosoid.

    You get it now?

    Let them deal with their problems themselves.

    Especially that they did not officially recognize the Independence of Nagorny Karabakh. They had 30 years to do just that…

    • Replies: @128
    , @LG
    , @Avery
    , @AnonFromTN
  52. Epigon says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Manzikert is the turning point, IMO, for Turkic domination of that part of the world.
    Besides, I suspect the ethnic composition of the Byzantine themes which were lost and constituted a significant proportion of manpower was Armenian to a significant degree as well.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
  53. 128 says:
    @Ano4

    So when is Russia recognizing the DNR and the LPR? Hypocrites.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  54. Dmitry says:
    @Ano4

    1. Publicly, Armenians seemed a lot more unanimously loyal for Armenia, than Western Jews for Israel. A large part of Jews in West, are criticizing Israel, and sometimes the most excited critics about the topic (for example look at this website’s views on this topic, which is owned by a brown Jew).

    This more unanimous nationalism of Armenians, is because Armenians are a real nationality with a real connection to their culture and heritage, while Jews are much more tenuously constructed nationality, which is actually a religion pretending to be a nationality, and many of its representatives didn’t originate in Israel and their connection is always being artificially pumped.

    2. Most of Armenia’s military equipment was paid for by the Russia. However, Western Armenians can send money for their military, efforts which should enter back into Russia’s economy if Armenia will buy weapons – Armenians sent $100 million this week. So it’s not all bad economics.

    “As of October 12, more than $100 million has been raised within the framework of the “We Are Our Borders” fundraising campaign initiated by the Hayastan All-Armenian Fund.”
    https://en.armradio.am/2020/10/12/funds-raised-by-hayastan-fund-exceed-100-million/

    2.
    Armenians do not seem especially wealthy in Russia – just that number of Armenians is large and growing.

    Armenians send around $500 million remittances from Russia to Armenia each year, but there are around 2 million Armenians in Russia (likely more workers with the open borders system). So it might be $250 remittances per capita to Armenia.

    Armenia’s economy lives on such remittances, but it is quite a small economy.

    3. If we look at the richest Armenians in the world. Karapetyan is the only dollar billionaire in the Russian Federation. While the second richest Armenian, Vardanyan, is not in top 100. https://www.forbes.ru/profile/ruben-vardanyan

    There are 6 or 7 Azeri dollar billionaires in Russia, while there is only 1 Armenian billionaire (or 1,5 if you include owner of Magnit, who is from half-Armenian descent). There are around 2 million Armenians who are citizens of Russia, and only 600000 Azeris – so Armenians are proportional for their population, while Azeris are disproportional.

    In America, representatives of the Armenians include some of the wealthy and influential people like Kim Kardashian

    But Armenians overall are close to the countries’ median income, and probably they are below median income for the areas they inhabit (Los Angeles).

    3. In California, sometimes they protest and are fighting in the streets in a Caucasian style.

    • Thanks: SIMP simp
  55. @Epigon

    You managed to capture what I wanted to write earlier today but just couldn’t properly formulate.

    It’s quite something to watch Azeris commit war crimes against Armenians live (maybe this is just because this is the first war I bothered to thoroughly watch and observe in my life as it happens in real-time) with the deliberate bombing of an Armenian church in Artsakh (twice) and the killing of an Armenian mother and her disabled son.

    I thought about personally donating some money to the Armenian cause but the cancerous liberal Armenian diaspora turned me off from that as I observed some of their endorsements of “Serbs bad” talking points (Gary Kasparov first and foremost).

    Still, for what it’s worth apparently some Lebanese and Russian Armenians have already gone to fight for their homeland, so their diaspora is worth much more than the Serb one overall (although our nation is in a collectively inferior state compared to theirs in terms of national consciousness, mentality and etc).

  56. Ano4 says:
    @128

    You are absolutely correct. Russian government is a government of hypocrites. Putin promised full support to the Eastern Ukraine Russian speaking population. But then the President of the Switzerland and head of OSCE had a little private chat with him and Putin blinked. We have no idea what message Burkhalter delivered to Putin, but Putin clearly peed his pants. That’s when Russian people of Donetsk and Lugansk republics have been sacrificed.

    The photos taken that day:

    My personal opinion is that Burkhalter told to Putin that they have full information about the financial dealings of the Russian Oligarchic clans, including the closest circles of Putin himself and that all their moneys and assets worldwide will be seized if Russian army moved in Eastern Ukraine.

    But we don’t know and will never know what message Putin received that day.

    • Replies: @Gerard.Gerard
  57. Dmitry says:
    @Lot

    If Nicaragua and Hondurus are in some kind of war with each other – will citizens in the USA feel a warm glow at the idea of intervening in such conflicts?

    Russia has indeed a collective defense treaty with Armenia (“ODKB”), which Armenia is trying to lure into triggering. In terms of economics, the relation with Azerbaijan is also important – Azerbaijan has oil money and is one of the main customers of defense exports from Russia, while with Armenia these exports are more often subsidized through loans, which are later forgiven.

    In terms of Turkey, it seems like Erdogan’s gerontologist has been increasing his testosterone replacement therapy this year. But the only potential invasion of Sochi by Turkey, should be of a tourist kind.

    invading a former USSR

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are both former USSR, both run away. Armenian militants were even killing Russian soldiers in the 1990s. (https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/271357/)

    Although the greater threat for the countries of Transcaucasia, might be not so much the border disputes, as the loss of their population by emigration, due to the open borders policy in the Russian Federation.

    In particular, Armenia is constantly losing the basis of its national power, through emigration. Open borders policy of Russian government is one of the main factors reducing Armenian power, as its young population is emigrating.
     
    The best policy to boost Armenia’s power and independence, would be to impose a selective immigration regime between Russia and Armenia, and to promote a repatriation programme of Armenians from the Russian Federation, to return to Armenia. However, this will be unlikely to succeed so long as there is the wage differential in Russia’s favour, and business interests in Russia support the labour supply created by the current (sometimes formal, sometimes informal) open borders with many postsoviet countries.

    • Agree: Ano4
  58. @Commentator Mike

    Many fighters and their families have already received Turkish citizenship from the government (Let alone salary or other benefits…). It’s not like you recruit these people from the jungles of Africa. What you said that could happen in 19th century, not today. You execute a fighter, it’s circulating in their social media, good luck recruiting next time. They don’t look like Foreign legion but still pretty useful mercenary (at least according to the government since they keep them under their wings.) for foreign adventures.

  59. @Ano4

    Disagree. Since the Turks are syphoning Islamic terrorists into the Caucuses to fight in this war, and since these terrorists have been murdering, raping and enslaving Christians in their recent Caliphate in Syria/Iraq, then it should be of concern to everybody, including the non-Christian Chinese. But we know that originally these Islamic terrorists were launched by USA/Israel before Turkey and Azerbaijan started using them. And who is to say that they may not settle them in NK once they liberate it as they have done with some foreign Islamist head-coppers in Bosnia? Surely Russia wouldn’t want any of that on its southern border.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  60. @Annatar

    Syrians live a good life (free healthcare/free drugs/getting paid by government and NGOs…), but at the end of the day, this is not possible for many unless they’re in Turkey. Syrians don’t really value anything about human life/better life since you don’t make at average 5.5 kids if you care about material life (Probably the real fertility rate is higher.) or continue to fight instead of making peace with the government (Being mercenary for foreign nations pay much better than any bargain you can get from Syrian government.). I mean it’s just a guess, pretty bold one, but probably a Turkish/Kurdish family of four living at Istanbul with 2 people working with minimum wage have much harder time than Syrian(Turkmen/Kurd/Arab) with 2 wives and 10 kids. They sure love money (Especially if it’s foreign taxer payers hard earned cash.)
    For the Turkish citizens part, let’s just say you pay 1500$ and let them fight against Armenia, you will have a very long line. You can’t convince them to fight in some random African country, but many will join the ranks free to fight against Armenia (You need to convince them a little bit.). I mean if the first war happened today, Turkey would have been intervened on the side of Azeris as a result of immense pressure and you woul see a lot of volunteers. I mean there were/are Turkish nationalist fighting against Syrian government (Don’t know the number but still very interesting)

  61. Ano4 says:
    @Commentator Mike

    It should only be Russia’s problem if Wahhabis try to interfere with Russian populations on Russian soil or Russian citizens abroad. If they do, send them all to Jennah or Gehennamah (and Allah knows best). If they behave themselves, leave them alone to kill, maim and torture each other. Consider this as one of their cultural peculiarities.

    Also use Muslims to kill Muslims. Unleash Kadoryvites upon the Wahhabis and reward those among them who kill the highest number of the Wahhabis with golden pistols, sabers with precious stones encrusted upon them and luxury cars.

    A common-sensical approach that has been used by Russian Empire for generations.

  62. @Ano4

    They should act as Jews would if Israel was attacked.

    Armenians don’t semi-control the world’s leading superpower.

    Armenia still officially recognizes Nagorno Karabakh as Azeri territory. How dumb and cowardly is then to count on others to defend their interests, while their diaspora is not doing its part?

    Not a good argument for us in particular to go down, the Armenian diaspora is certainly more patriotic than the Russian – or (((Russian))) – one. And well by that standard we should get the fuck out from Donbass (Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc).

    • Replies: @Ano4
    , @SIMP simp
  63. Ano4 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Armenian diaspora is certainly more patriotic than the Russian – or (((Russian))) – one

    The future Russian National State shouldn’t give two hoots about Russian diaspora (me included). If someone for whatever reason decided to live anywhere else on a permanent basis, then strip this person of their Russian citizenship. Everyone will be free to come back or move in from former USSR if they can prove Slav ancestry or ancestry of any ethnic group native to Russia. If people decide to stay abroad then so be it, they aren’t Russian anymore. And no more double citizenship. No more bullsh☆t.

    And well by that standard we should get the fuck out from Donbass (Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc).

    Yes. You either recognize their independence and sign a treaty with them or you annex them or you get out and let them go. No more hypocrisy.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  64. @AltanBakshi

    The Alawi faith is somewhat attractive (like the Druze) as they retain some elements of Neoplatonic thought in their understanding of the divine.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  65. @Epigon

    The importance of the Manzikert has probably been over-emphasised as being a key event in the eventual domination of Anatolia by the Seljuks and later the Ottomans. Scholars now believe structural factors like the devaluation of the Roman currency, increasing centralisation (Anatolian elite migrating to the capital rather than staying put on their estates) were more important. Also, by the time of the end of reign of Ioannis Komnenos most of Anatolia was again under Roman control with the exception of the central-eastern plateau.

  66. Not Raul says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Are they really naive, or is it “protective stupidity”?

  67. @Ano4

    No more hypocrisy.

    LOL. Setting yourself at a massive competitive disadvantage for “ideological” reasons is only something idiot/revolutionary regimes do.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  68. SIMP simp says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    by that standard we should get the fuck out from Donbass (Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc).

    Yes, you should.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  69. mal says:

    Russia should be more aggressive. Russia should treat West Ukraine like Israel treats Iran and Syria. And don’t bother explaining your actions, simply state “NATO arms shipments endanger national security, it is very tragic if our artillery tracks off course but national security takes primacy”.

    West Ukrainian nationalists will not mind because they are already on the warpath with Russia, and Russian Western Military District needs artillery practice. All those Iskanders need calibration. Lvov region is as good a place as any. There’s absolutely no reason why only Russian friends in Donetsk should die. It’s a win win for everybody – West Ukraine gets the Russian aggression they have been dreaming about, and Russia gets a live artillery practice grounds.

    Just make sure not to explain your actions – just say “tragic off course missile deviation while targeting suspected NATO weapons shipment for national security reasons”. It doesn’t have to be true, but it will open all of Ukraine for Russian artillery practice. This practice will come in handy in not so distant future.

  70. Dreadilk says:
    @Lot

    You know nothing.

    If anything this shows how much Russia matters. Armenia had a sweet life when Russia was it’s protector.

    Also Russia does not give a shit about what heathen filth thinks of it. You can try and play on emotions calling them weak but that is all you can do is just talk.

    • Replies: @Lot
  71. Ano4 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    at a massive competitive disadvantage

    Clarity and predictability are not a disadvantage. To be clear in one’s intents and making your friends and enemies know who you truly are is good policy. OTOH being a slimy opportunist who says: “We will stand behind the women and children of Donbass ” and then pees his pants with ankles shaking in front of the Swiss president is bad policy.

    ideological

    Rather biological, as in making your people reproduce more and live better lives by making them comfortable and confident that you are predictable and will always care for them and only them.

    idiot/revolutionary

    Not really. In fact quite the opposite: revolutionary regimes are often built upon situation ethics. And idiots simply live day by day pumping hydrocarbons, while their industrial basis weakens, their masses fail to reproduce, their villages empty up and their ecology situation worsens.

  72. LG says:
    @Yevardian

    Yes, while the Turko-Azeris succeeded in inflicting significant damage from the air, it is the Armenian soldiers who are brilliant on the ground, damn fucking brilliant.

    As for the Russians, they are already on the ground: ANNA NEWS has already a crew in Stepanakert and WARGONZO is making regular trips to Hadrut. To those who don’t know already, ANNA NEWS is no ordinary Russian News Agency and Semon Pegov (WARGONZO) is not an ordinary Russian Blogger. They are financed, supported and told where to go by you-know-who…
    ANNA NEWS:
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSLkl3Jcgh2jFd1_Wg6eTQA/videos
    https://anna-news.info/
    WarGonzo:
    https://www.youtube.com/c/WarGonzo/videos

    I am happy to see that the Armenian Diaspora in the West is doing what they can to support their nation while the Diaspora in the Russian Federation is doing their part without too much fanfare:

    Don’t be pessimistic. Armenia will win the war. It is winning the peace which I am more concerned about. The political class in Yerevan is not up to par on a number of metrics.

  73. LG says:
    @AnonFromTN

    So you think turkey is stupid enough to challenging Russia directly in the Caucasus? The only way I see that being the case is if nato is really the one pushing the turks to push the azerbaijanis to continue the war.
    The author of this article essentially claims as much. That the fighting over Artsakh is an effort by the west/nato to expand into the Caucasus and Central Asia.

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/10/14/nato-energy-geopolitics-and-conflict-in-caucasus/

    Interesting theory, but at this point there is not enough evidence for me to conclude that that is what the collective west, via turkey, is attempting to do.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  74. Lot says:
    @Dreadilk

    “Also Russia does not give a shit about what heathen filth thinks of it”

    They spend a lot of money on the slick RT and similar English language propaganda if they don’t care what we think.

    Maybe Russia should further retreat from the world due to its poverty and backwardness. The days of deciding the fates of peoples from Prague to Cuba to Vietnam to Angola are long gone. It is sad that Russia is too weak for this to continue, but given that weakness, retreat is the best policy.

    Maybe the retreat needs to go further still, away from an area that has been part of the Russian zone of influence since the 1820s.

    “all you can do is just talk”

    All Russia can do is talk. It isn’t my people who produced heroes like Ivan Paskevich and conquered an area, but now leave it to be bombed and overrun by Turks.

  75. LG says:
    @Ano4

    You do realize that Russia, being one of the 3 co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, did not, and apparently still does not want Armenia to officially recognize Artsakh?

  76. Yevardian says:
    @Ano4

    In case you missed it, I was sarcastically referring to the US-Israeli relationship, and why comparing Armenia’s options to that of Israel is retarded.
    Not to mention we saved ourselves (at great cost) in 1917-1919, Russia had nothing to do it. Anyway, the Bolsheviks colluded with the Turks in destroying the First Armenian Republic, and then cut-off Nakhichevan and Artsakh, so sorry for the lack of eternal gratitude.

  77. Yevardian says:
    @Lot

    Whatever, I’m sure TheSaker will find a way to explain how letting the Russia’s closest asset in the Caucasus get raped by Israeli-backed Turks is just another clever move in Putin’s grand scheme to overthrow the Anglo-Zionist Empire.

    Although to be honest, Turkey’s recent degree of independence and daring in foreign affairs is very impressive for a non-nuclear power. It’s very much in the whole region’s interests to curb Turkish ambitions, but it doesn’t seem Russia or the US are interested in that. The only person who seriously brings it up is Zhirik..

  78. Dmitry says:

    What we learned from YouTube?.

    Azeris are became skilled hi-tech aerial gypsies targeting unsuspecting victims from behind the clouds.

    Armenians seem to be still the masters of the traditional caucasian forest rape, ambushing victims who were stupid enough to climb into the outback.

  79. Yevardian says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Manazkert marked the transition from loose and shifting vassalage to direct rule, dhimmitude and population replacement.
    It’s forgotten in the past that many Armenians were also Melchites, Unionates (Crusader Kingdoms and Cicilia), they made up significant contingent in the themes of Byzantine Armies, and contributed to them a few Emperors, most significantly John Tsmiskes and (partially) Basil II and his dynasty.
    Also, Armenia was practically independent during the latter period of the Abbassid Caliphate, the Bagratuni dynasty paid lip-service but not much else.

    Azeris are became skilled hi-tech aerial gypsies targeting unsuspecting victims from behind the clouds.

    Armenians seem to be still the masters of the traditional caucasian forest rape, ambushing victims who were stupid enough to climb into the outback.

    What looks like 3 Pomegranates lying around the soldier’s corpse really adds to local flavour.

  80. Dmitry says:

    Surprising that Kishinev in Moldova became a place of Caucasian diaspora fighting between protesters this summer. (I did not expect they had these nationalities).

    As expected for Moscow and Los Angeles.

  81. Avery says:
    @AnonFromTN

    {More than two weeks on, the war is raging. Azeris retook a small portion of Karabakh, less than 3%.}

    And your source of this is?

    {the war of this intensity will go on for more than a year before Azeris take the whole thing.}

    In 1992 Turkbaijani military had occupied 50% of NKAO (Nagorno Karabagh Autonomous Oblast). That’s right, 50%.
    Those were the darkest days for Artsakh/NK.
    After that, Armenians rallied and not only threw out the nomad Turk invaders from NKAO, but chased the decimated Turkbaijani military all the way to the Arax river.
    KGB Colonel Heydar Aliyev (criminal Ilham’s father) begged his friends at the Kremlin to pressure Armenians to stop, which Moscow did.

    In May 1994 Azerbaijan signed a cease-fire with the leaders of then Nagorno-Karabagh Republic: co-signed by Armenia.

    Turkbaijanis are much better armed and trained today, of course.
    But so is Armenian military.
    So the demise of Armenians is greatly exaggerated and premature.

  82. Avery says:

    {Since social media analysis isn’t going to catch all the Azeri losses, we can conclude that the Azeri losses are twice as high as the Armenian ones. Much better than the 1:4 or 1:5 ratio during the first war.}

    Karlin, what do you mean by this?

    You write “Azeri losses twice as high as the Armenian ones”
    Then you write “…… much better than 1:4 or 1:5.” (this would mean 1 Armenian loss to 4/5 Turkbaijani loss)

    Did you mean 1.4 or 1.5?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  83. @Avery

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratio

    In mathematics, a ratio indicates how many times one number contains another. For example, if there are eight oranges and six lemons in a bowl of fruit, then the ratio of oranges to lemons is eight to six (that is, 8∶6, which is equivalent to the ratio 4∶3). Similarly, the ratio of lemons to oranges is 6∶8 (or 3∶4) and the ratio of oranges to the total amount of fruit is 8∶14 (or 4∶7).

  84. Avery says:
    @Ano4

    {Especially that they did not officially recognize the Independence of Nagorny Karabakh. They had 30 years to do just that…}

    Republic of Armenia recognizing Artsakh will mean squat, that’s why it is not done.
    The worldwide effort by Armenians is to have another country recognize it first.
    If the wisdom of this is not obvious to you, then you simply do not understand.


    {Now please see comment # 45. These are pictures taken in 2018-2019 in Armenia. They manifested against Russian military presence and elected a Sorosoid.}

    Oh, wow! a bunch of idiots paid by the West and/or Open Society Foundation have put up some signs: what of it?
    A few years ago the same paymaster had 10s of 1,000s of people protesting against Putin in Moscow.
    So?

    So what is the source of your anti-Armenian vitriol?
    Armenian people are allowed to make mistakes?

    And didn’t Russian people democratically elect Sorosoid Yeltsin, who brought RF to the brink of dissolution? It happens: it’s called Democracy. People oftentimes make stupid choices. Like, you know, in Ukraine, in Serbia,….maybe Belarus is next?

    • Replies: @Jazman
  85. @Ano4

    There are more Armenians living in Russia than in any other country of the world, with the exception of Armenia itself.

    Correction: There are more Armenians living in Russia (3.5 million) than in any other country of the world, including Armenia itself (fewer than 3 million).

  86. @LG

    So you think turkey is stupid enough to challenging Russia directly in the Caucasus?

    No, I think that even stupid Erdogan is not stupid enough for that. Turkey fought 12 wars with Russia, lost every one of them.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    , @LondonBob
    , @LG
  87. Cato says:

    Thanks for the link to the Kevork Hadjian video. A great voice, and he takes one into a space where one can feel the tribalist call to battle. Uplifting and inspiring. Even if one is not Armenian.

  88. Not Raul says:

    From the photos I saw from the first week of fighting, it looked like the Armenians were getting hammered by drones, and drone-assisted artillery.

    Have the Armenians improved their tactics over the last week?

  89. Not Raul says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Turkey doesn’t need to challenge Russia directly for the Armenian rebels to be defeated.

    The area is much easier to supply from Turkey, and with Turkish support, it’s hard to see how the Azeris run out of ammunition and cannon-fodder before the Armenians do.

    I doubt that the plan is to roll over the whole territory right away. More likely they’ll bleed it, and strangle it little by little, like Scott’s Anaconda Plan.

    Imagine how difficult it will be to supply the Armenian rebels up in the mountains in the cold, snowy winter. Mountain passes will be difficult to cross, and the white ground will make supply lines easier to see from the air, especially if the drones have infrared. Trying to supply the rebels by air would be very costly in blood and treasure.

    This might go on for a few years, and time is not on the rebels’ side.

    I doubt that the rebels could survive four winters before suing for peace.

  90. @Agathoklis

    They do believe in reincarnation so that’s good from my Buddhist point of view. But what good there is in Neoplatonism? Many Sufis also have strong elements of Neoplatonic thought.

    In my opinion Aristoteles was superior to Platon. The analytics, golden mean, that there are no universal forms, his dialectics etc.

    But sometimes I wonder if Platon was talking about Rupadhatu, the realm of (ethereal) Forms in the Buddhism?
    Still there can’t be universal forms, if there would be, how then there could be evolution? After all the changes are very subtle and chaotic. How one could crossbreed plants, our strawberries and oranges are hybrid plants, there could not be a universal form of the orange, universal forms just don’t make sense to me. Oh that’s just one counter argument against Platonism. Platons thought is too speculative and totally idealistic.

  91. LondonBob says:
    @AnonFromTN

    He already is.

    I don’t understand why so many are soft on Turkey, they are creating problems all over the place, Macron is right they need to be slapped down.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  92. @SIMP simp

    Well, thanks for confirming my point.

    • Replies: @TheTotallyAnonymous
  93. @AnonFromTN

    I see an inescapable stalemate.

    Inescapable stalemate is fine, well, at least a continuation of the last 2 decades. Nagorno-Karabakh is far more wealthier, as with the rest of Europe , than Ukraine. Not having this escalation used so that Azeri’s are brainwashed by their elites or Soros/Gosdep scum into thinking that Russia is “occupying” or enabling “occupation” …would be a success for me. This sad thing has occured in Gruzia and has unfortunately worked on a critical mass of the population ( it was like this even before 2008), though their elites are saner in Azerbaijan, and Soros influence is less, though of course the economic opportunity for elites to be bribed against Russia is much bigger.

    I don’t think that either Turkey or Russia would serve as “deus ex machina”

    Forgetting about people-people relations, Turkey is our best ally….after Mongolia. Kazakhstan after them. Erdogan is like De Gaulle in comparison to the EU/US leadership trash over the last decade.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    , @Yevardian
  94. @Gerard-Mandela

    Are you a Volga Tatar? If you are, then you should not believe the Turanist propaganda. Tatars, except the Crimean ones dont have much common with the Anatolians, but you have very much common with the Russians, Finno-Ugric peoples, other Kipchak Turks, and even with the ancient Aryans, Proto-Indo-Europeans who dwelled near the lands of Tatarstan, but what common Volga Tatars have with the Anatolians? Yes some words, but so do the Congolese and the French. Common faith of Hanafi Madhab? But Congolese and the French share also the same faith, or most of them at least nominally.

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
  95. @AltanBakshi

    Are you a Volga Tatar? If you are, then you should not believe the Turanist propaganda. Tatars, except the Crimean ones dont have much common with the Anatolians

    No. But that region is where I live.

    My comment was less cultural ( the turks invest plenty in Tatarstan, but nothing too subversive, or conditional so far)…..and more about praising the Turks for their hospitality to us as tourists where we almost own parts of Turkey ( much better for us than from our “brothers” in Greece and Montenegro), and their economic policies with us. Most countries we have had gas disputes with , but nothing from Turkey. I also greatly respect their engineering/construction companies..they are doing a large amount of work at the moment and probably are among the best companies in the world at this.

    If the rumours are true that Putin gave Erdogan advanced warning of the ( still unexplained) coup attempt allegedly by US/Gulenists,then he must see something of value in him.

    One thing Armenia deserves great credit for though, is that it survives, relatively OK despite not having Turkish investment like Gruzia does, and obviously does not have the resources or investment from around the world as Azerbaijan nor can it export goods via railway to Russia, because Gruzia won’t allow it)

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
  96. Yevardian says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    Erdogan is like De Gaulle in comparison to the EU/US leadership trash over the last decade.

    I disagree with the rest (Turkey has stabbed in the back every ally it ever had, I doubt the US cared enough about Armenia to bother fomenting a colour revolution there), but this is inarguable. Honestly, in cynical realpolitik, Erdogan has done a better job than Putin himself given his country’s limited resources… the bastard.

  97. @LondonBob

    Macron is right they need to be slapped down

    So, why wait for Russia? Let Macron do the slapping. Or, if Europeans are so emasculated that they are incapable of doing that, let them ask their suzerain.

    • Agree: LG
    • Replies: @LondonBob
  98. LG says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Correct. So why would Russia be concerned about helping Armenia? The turks will not cross the Arax river into Armenia. What they will continue to do is to push to station more and more of their assets and soldiers on azerbaijani territory. One would think this would be a concern to policymakers inside the Kremlin.

    I also would be shocked if Armenians are not making the case to their Russian counterparts that turkish involvement in the region is a major threat to Russia’s soft underbelly in the Caucasus region. And once the orcs move in, it will be an issue to dislodge them without a full scale war.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  99. @Anatoly Karlin

    Karlin, I think you might want to take a look at this (if you’re still bothering to follow this thread).

    The 2019 RAND report on “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia”:

    https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf

    Especially interesting are these parts:

    Measure 1: Hinder Petroleum Exports
    Measure 2: Reduce Natural Gas Exports and Hinder
    Pipeline Expansions
    vi Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
    Measure 3: Impose Sanctions
    Measure 4: Enhance Russian Brain Drain

    Pathways for Influence Operations
    Current Status of Russian Regime Legitimacy
    Russian Domestic Environment
    Policy Measures to Diminish Domestic and Foreign Support for the
    Russian Regime

    Measure 1: Increase U.S. and NATO Land Forces in Europe
    Measure 2: Increase NATO Exercises in Europe
    Measure 3: Withdraw from the INF Treaty
    Measure 4: Invest in New Capabilities to Manipulate Russian Risk
    Perceptions

    Measure 1: Increase U.S. and Allied Naval Force Posture and Presence
    Measure 2: Increase Naval Research and Development Efforts
    Measure 3: Shift Nuclear Posture Toward SSBNs
    Measure 4: Check the Black Sea Buildup

    Measure 1: Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine
    Measure 2: Increase Support to the Syrian Rebels
    Measure 3: Promote Regime Change in Belarus
    Measure 4: Exploit Tensions in the South Caucasus
    Measure 5: Reduce Russian Influence in Central Asia
    Measure 6: Challenge Russian Presence in Moldova

    Is it an accident or coincidence that from the writing of this report we’ve seen nearly all of these since then happen almost simultaneously together?

    They nearly all seem to have flopped (regarding the geopolitical measures besides the Kyrgyzstan overthrow) so far though, although this suggests future trouble in Moldova/Transnistria is potentially upcoming.

    The tldr summary of the RAND report:

    https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

    When taking this Karabakh War in the context of the Eurasian “chessboard” and relentless anti-Russia efforts by the USA and so on, Russia’s hesitation to intervene actually looks like it’s potentially a good move.

    For the whole “Russia weak” or “Russia is a cuck” crowd, Russian non-involvement looks like it could very well be far sighted and smart strategic-decision making. In light of potential regime change in Belarus, the Kyrgyzstan overthrow, increased economic sanctions and other trouble for the Kremlin, direct military intervention in Karabakh/Armenia/Azerbaijan carries serious costs and limited gains.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Beckow
  100. The control system can handle 200 UCAVs at once. Each with a 3kg warhead, about as powerful as a high explosive tank shell.

  101. @LG

    I agree that Putin needs to squeeze sultan’s balls hard. I still believe that this should not be linked to helping sorosoids’ Armenia. Aliyev might be unwise and disgusting in some things, but nothing can be more disgusting than Soros and sorosoids.

    • Replies: @LG
  102. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    Simple rule is: if the Empire and its subservient Russian libtards call for something, it should never be done.

  103. Beckow says:
    @TheTotallyAnonymous

    As always, the real story is how low-level and almost stupid these ‘plans‘ are. The Rand ‘plan‘ could be put together in one day by a frustrated 15-year old to harass a classmate.

    Basically: yell some obscenities at the enemy tribe, pay his unhappy marginal relatives to stir up sh..t, throw garbage in his backyard, poison his dog, abuse his allies when you can. Also get some small, powerless local tribelets to do the same. Then tell your own people repeatedly how smart and all-powerful you are. Repeat.

    This is not a winning hand and it shows weakness. I don’t recall last time a large country gave up because of constant irritation and propaganda. People can be stupid, but they intuitively know when someone hates them. They will eventually respond with hatred of their own and then this will be real fun.

    • Agree: Gerard-Mandela
  104. LG says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Do you think that if Armenia falls or is seriously weakened that azerbaijan will entertain closer ties with Russia? Their population currently has much more favorable views toward turkey. And I can not imagine that ankara would invest so much in helping azerbaijan without ensuring that latter remains firmly in the turkish sphere of influence. Unless of course you think aliyev can serve two masters at the same time – in Moscow and ankara.

    One doesn’t need soros funds to be anti-Russian or to keep Russia at a distance. Just ask Lukashenko. Should Russia also allow Belarus to fold?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Dmitry
  105. @LG

    Should Russia also allow Belarus to fold?

    Belarus, like Crimea, has strategic importance. Armenia does not. I hope Putin negotiated Batska’s retirement and found a replacement with higher intelligence (that’s easy, a well-trained dog is smarter than Batska) and higher reliability (that’s the hard part).

    Aliyev might think that he can sit on two chairs, but this position is uncomfortable and unstable (look at Batska). ODKB treaty won’t let Armenia fall, but Armenia was weakened by letting sorosoids get to power and will be further weakened by losing most or all of Karabakh. I don’t think that Russia should do anything beyond the letter of ODKB treaty, at least not until Armenians kick sorosoids out.

    I think Russia should let Iranians play their anti-Turkish games unhindered, aspiring sultan is clearly biting more than he can chew. It can also allow millions of Armenians living in Russia show their patriotism and go fight for their country. I don’t think there would be many takers, though. If they cared about Armenia, they would not have moved to Russia.

    • Replies: @LG
  106. LondonBob says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I don’t disagree, anyway I expect Russia will ensure the war is a stalemate anyway, easy enough to do.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  107. @Gerard-Mandela

    I do not recall Greeks shooting down Russian jets or sponsoring jihadis in Syria against Russia troops. This Russian nationalist love for Turks is very odd. Perhaps it is the Turkic admixture in Russian people. Who knows.

    • Replies: @LG
  108. @LondonBob

    I expect Russia will ensure the war is a stalemate anyway, easy enough to do.

    The lay of the land suggests that it’s bound to be a stalemate, as I said in #18. However, these calculations might change. Iran has a legitimate reason to interfere now: about 50 shells landed on its territory, destroyed some buildings, and even injured some people. If they are prepared to beat the shit out of both tribes, more power to them!

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  109. Dmitry says:
    @AnonFromTN

    15-20 million Azeris are Iranian citizens, living in Iran. That is the majority of Azeris in the world, have Iranian citizenship (not Azerbaijani citizenship), and up to a quarter of Iranian citizens are Azeris.

    Iran’s government always has to be careful about Azerbaijan, and Baku’s possibility of sponsoring Azeri nationalism inside Iran: up to 25% of Iran’s total population are Azeris.

    Azerbaijanis themselves are just descendants of Persians, and their language was Farsi until the middle ages. But it’s clear that especially after the 20th century, Azerbaijanis are developing a strong amount of nationalism, and Baku promotes nationalism within Iran itself.

    On the other hand, Iran could never afford to deteriorate relations with Baku too much, as up to 1/4 of the Iranian population are Azerbaijanis, and their loyalty in potential conflict could perhaps be more with Baku.

    • Disagree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  110. Aedib says:
    @SIMP simp

    What Armenian lacks is a serious electronic warfare system. Drones swarms proved to be ineffective against Russian bases in Syria. An up to date AD network would fare much better.

  111. LG says:
    @AnonFromTN

    I assume you care about Russia. And that you are an ethnic Russian. Do you reside in Russia currently?

    If Russia loses Armenia it loses the Caucasus. You seem to think that somehow Russia can maintain its presence in the Caucasus without a friendly state there. Georgia is gone, azerbaijan is on the fence, and Armenia, if lost means no Russian presence in the south Caucasus. This in turn makes it easer for elements hostile to Russia to pry away the north Caucasus. But hey if you want to gamble so be it.

    Why did Soros led (according to you) Armenia, send de-miners and peacekeepers to assist the Russian forces in Syria? Sargsyan never did that.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  112. Dmitry says:
    @LG

    Erdogan wants to push his way as the regional power.

    But the current ruling family of Azerbaijan cannot escape their connection to Russia – they were originally just KGB commander. Today they mostly will have Russian passports, in addition to the Azerbaijani one, and much of their properties will be in Moscow.

    Grandchildren of current President Aliev just live in Moscow (their father is son of Aras Agalarov).
    .

    View this post on Instagram

    Finally all together ❤️❤️❤️❤️

    A post shared by Emin (@eminofficial) on

    This family is always sucking to Russian “government officials”.

    https://www.instagram.com/leyla999/p/9q6lrzvy0f/

    And the “creative” eccentric daughter is always in Moscow.

  113. LG says:
    @Agathoklis

    I haven’t come across any real Russian patriots here. The randos posting here anti-Armenian stuff are not representative of the Russians who know where their national interests and civilizational interests lie. And it is not with azerbaijan and turkey.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Agathoklis
  114. Dmitry says:
    @LG

    Being interested in repetitive tribal conflicts between brown caucasian nationalities is hardly a sine qua non of patriotism. Especially when it includes some of most unpopular immigrant groups of the last decades.

    The interest of Russian government is to maintain an permanently unresolved conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and neither allow Turkey to push in and disrupt the balance of power.

    Returning two sides to an unresolvable conflict should not be so difficult to achieve, but there is geopolitical problem with Turkey pushing itself into the region. However, from the point of weapons sales, Turkey has not been so important in the last five years.

    There had been previously an additional realpolitik benefit to Russia from this conflict, in weapons sales. In the last 5 years, the country which pushed Russia into second place in weapons exports to Azerbaijan is not even Turkey – it is Israel. Moreover, Turkey is far behind.

    So since 2015, it has been more Israel, than Turkey, that is threatening the economic benefit of Azerbaijan to Russia’s military exports.

    Israel was at 60% since 2015. Prior to 2015, Russia was 85% of their weapons imports. So Israel is a more problem for Russian exports to the region, than Turkey.

    Obviously, weapons sales is only a small part of the issue though, and Turkey pushing into Transcaucasia is a more significant topic, than Israel’s profiting from it. But it’s not that clear what is the strategic benefit of this region, except from the oil in Azerbaijan. From the point of view of improving Russia – a Trump solution to the region seems more desirable “build a wall”.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @LG
  115. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    From the point of view of improving Russia – a Trump solution to the region seems more desirable “build a wall”.

    Also from the point of view of the countries themselves. The main problem for Armenia’s future especially, is emigration of its young people to Russia, and would be solved by selective immigration regime imposed in Russia.

    Armenian immigration to Russia has even been increasing in recent years. http://economytimes.ru/kurs-rulya/migracionnyy-prirost-anomalnye-pokazateli

  116. @LG

    I was born in Lvov and grew up in Lugansk. So, I am Russian to the same extent as sane Ukrainians (like Oles Buzina, murdered by Ukies, or Rostislav Ishchenko, who ran away to Russia after the coup to avoid this fate) are Russians.

    I live in the US since 1991. I left about half a year before the USSR was dissolved by the three traitors.

    I believe that in today’s world, with declining Empire exhibiting more and more criminal behavior, Russian foreign policy is one of the main factors keeping us all alive (sane China’s Xi is another factor). I am not a big fan of Putin’s internal policies, although he and his government managed to not only survive mad US/EU sanctions, but turn around the economy and gain the upper hand economically.

    What’s more, USSR gave me for free (even paid stipend and provided essentially free dorm) education in Moscow State University that was at least as good as what Yale gave my daughter for ~$140,000 (today it costs more than $200,000). For both of these reasons I wish Russia success.

    I don’t see what Armenia can possibly contribute to this success. It was always a parasite, who could not survive w/o Russian economic preferences, including shipments of arms on credit (as Armenia would never be in the position to repay this credit, in reality it means for free). Armenia is now led by anti-Russian sorosoids that its people brought to power (or at least did not resist their taking power). While a friendly country could have been useful, Armenia is anything but. Thus, I don’t see why Russia should spend treasure and lives to protect it. If they chose to commit national suicide, so be it. In my view, Syrians, or even Iranians, are better allies than Armenians. Besides, those savages met their match in Azeris. So, Russia should be like proverbial Chinese king of monkeys watching two tigers fighting.

    But I agree that aspiring sultan should be kept in check, so Russia should not allow Turkey make Azerbaijan its vassal. But the big game is between the Empire, China, and Russia, and that’s what Russia must pay close attention to. I don’t think Erdogan acts on behalf of the Empire, as not so long ago the Empire tried to depose and kill him. He is his own worst enemy, though: due to stupidity and delusions of grandeur he overextended himself to the breaking point.

    • Replies: @LG
  117. Dmitry says:

    Erdogan can try to spread his influence in transcaucasia – much of these are regions are less developed and more corrupt than provincial areas of Turkey.

    For example bride kidnapping in Turkey, only occurs in the Caucasian Black sea region of Turkey, on the border with Georgia (where it has been a national tradition, despite all the generations of work of Soviet authorities to eliminate it).

    Compared to a lot of Caucasians – many Turks might seem a soft and weak overcivilized people. Perhaps, nowadays, many Turks have become so tolerant that it is not customary to murder you with a knife, for looking in a wrong way at their sister. Modern Turkish people might probably more scared of Caucasus, than Caucasus can be scared of them.

    On the other hand, there are negative things about Erdogan – such as when he is spreading his primitive religion into countries like England.

    The fight against Erdogan, would be appropriate to try to remove his influence from Europe, where he has obviously a negative influence.

  118. @LG

    Some supposed Russian nationalist sure show very strong support for Turkey. Perhaps Dugan’s insane ideas of a Russo-Turkic civilizational coalition have rubbed off on them.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  119. Dmitry says:
    @Agathoklis

    Why “nationalists” would be supporting Turkey, the once historical enemy of Russia? (Besides that Dugin, to the extent anyone can listen to him without laughing, is anti-nationalist).

    People connecting to Turkey in Russia are mainly apolitical, ordinary people. Per year, around 7 million Russian tourists vacation in Turkey.

    It’s reached such a level that Turkey builds vast holiday resorts to resemble the Moscow tourist sites.

    .

    These are just the bargain vacationers.

    But also some hundreds of thousands of Russians live all year in Turkey. Below are the kind of people who live permanently in Turkey. (Russians are also the fastest growing foreign market for buying apartments in Turkey).

  120. LG says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Thanks for the info. So in your comment you said “Armenians living in Russia show their patriotism and go fight for their country. I don’t think there would be many takers, though. If they cared about Armenia, they would not have moved to Russia.”

    Above in your reply you mention that you no longer live in Russia/Ukraine since 1990. But you still seem to care an awful lot about what happens to your country, even though you are far away in Tennessee. I have met many Russians living abroad, a good deal of them care about their country still. So is it not possible for Armenians living in the diaspora to also care about their country even though they live far away? Also, how do you know whether they do or do not have skin in the game?

    I just think it is too easy to sit in front of a pc and type this or that, pontificate on various matters, etc but in reality you do not know the many circumstances at play.

    Armenia allows Russia to control the entirety of the Caucasus. In essence Armenia is the Russian hammer over the heads of Iran, Turkey or any other state that wishes to encroach into the soft Russian underbelly.
    Iran may be a good situational ally, but they are a geopolitical rival to Moscow. This same Iran was leaning toward buying western goods and allowing western oil firms to invest in Iran when the JCPOA went into effect. And before the civil war in Syria, Bashir was spending more time with his European and American counterparts than he was with the Iranians or Russians. More time in Paris and Rome, and less in Tehran or Moscow.
    Russia can afford to lose its base and position in Syria. It can not afford to lose the Caucasus. Doing so opens the way to the Don region, Volga region, Tatarstan, and Central Asia.

    And as an aside, Armenia under Pashinyan agreed to send de-miners and peacekeepers to Syria. Why didn’t the allegedly pro Russian Sargsyan agree to do the same? Why didn’t the pro-Russian Sargsyan ban or curtail the activities of the soros linked ngos? Why didn’t the pro-Russian Sargsyan agree to Russian peacekeepers on the LoC between Artsakh and azerbaijan?
    Could it be that things are not so black and white as you’ve outlined?
    Also, you do realize that the ties between Russia and Armenia are deeper than any one politician or administration?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @AnonFromTN
  121. LG says:
    @Dmitry

    You do realize that it was Stalin and the Bolsheviks who largely created this problem right? And you do realize that while Russia sold weapons to Azerbaijan at full price, it then essentially sold Armenians weapons at discounted prices or for free in some cases. The point was to keep both countries close, and to keep the de facto situation going. Russia was content with the ceasefire and the agreements reached in 1994. Moscow would like to incorporate the three Caucasian states into its various Eurasian integration projects. But it wasn’t going to force a peace deal either.
    Now, a new wannabe power has entered the region and caused one party – Azerbaijan – to think that the problem can be solved by war. Baku doesn’t need to listen to Moscow if it has big brother erdogan to do the heavy lifting. And what’s that? Erdo and Zelensky met today to ink more defense and economic agreements? The turks are playing a very high stakes game of geopolitical poker, and they are banking on Russia being the first to fold.

    As for the Russians who vacation in turkey, well good for them I guess. Do they realize that they are helping to build up a state that will one day sooner or later (probably sooner) confront their own on a battlefield? Stupidity has a price. And most people are just that. Honor, tradition, and patriotism are words for most people most of the time.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  122. Dmitry says:
    @LG

    As a “Great power”, it’s priority for Russia to stop American/NATO building some kind of airbases in Transcaucasia.

    However, fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, about a controversial territory, is not going to result in that. The conflict keeps both countries in a Russian sphere of influence, at least to the extent it is unresolved, or only partially resolved.

    Armenia need an unresolved threat from Azerbaijan, to keep them in a Russian sphere of influence. The best solution from the Russian “Great power” game, is to return this to a frozen and unresolved conflict, and ask that Azerbaijan does not re-conquer all the territory. But Nagorno Karabakh is a difficult, mountain territory, so Azerbaijan is not going to conquer all of it anytime soon. It’s more likely they will capture a few towns and villages, to justify the costs of this round of fighting.

    Fighting in mountains is usually very slow and expensive, and Azerbaijan will not rush over it, and resolve the conflict.

    Russia can afford to lose its base and position in Syria. It can not afford to lose the Caucasus. Doing so opens the way to the Don region, Volga region, Tatarstan, and Central Asia.

    Even if Azerbaijan will regain a few hills in Nagorno Karabakh. This Azeri ruling family and elite, like to hedge between sides to some extent (paying more money to Israel now than Russia for weapons), but ultimately they have Russian citizenships, and are half their life in Moscow. Armenia’s current Prime Minister does not speak Russian properly.

    The “Great Power” interest of Russia, is a balance of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan and Turkey threaten Armenia, which keeps Armenia in Russia’s sphere (despite the leadership choices). While there is also threat of Azerbaijan turning away from Russia, and joining with Turkey.

    However, if Russia would side against Azerbaijan, then this would push Azerbaijan (whose rulers live half in Russia), away. So the correct policy from the “Great Power” game is to have an even balance between the sides. Financially, though, Armenia is quite expensive, as a significant part of its military equipment is provided from loans, which are often forgiven. But the investment is returned, if the conflict keeps both sides in a Russia sphere.

  123. Dmitry says:
    @LG

    Of course, I would support a national self-determination of peoples, and better without the inference of “great games” between “great powers” (which include Russia), or “regional powers pretending to be great powers” (which includes Turkey).

    But I’m just talking about Russian “great power” interest, not my own opinion (which latter is meaningless as I have relation to anyone’s decisions).

    Great powers, to the extent they are successful, usually have to behave in ways which will seem cynical to people whose office job does not involve to be rulers of great powers.

    Stalin and the Bolsheviks who largely created this pro

    A large part of conflicts like this are created by Soviet borders. Although both sides lived much more happily in the USSR.

    Similarly if you look in the Near East or Africa, a large part of problems were created by English/French border drawings.

    Russians who vacation in turkey, well good for them

    If I go to the Mediterranean, I go to Greece, Spain, Italy and my favourite – Israel. Not Turkey.

    Turkey is not my choice of country. Although there are some interesting Greek ruins in Turkey, so maybe I will have to visit one day, hopefully after Erdogan is finished.

    But you cannot deny Antalya’s popularity with the ordinary, apolitical people. For example, some of my mother’s friends are going for years to Turkish language classes for their hobby. Housewives are learning this difficult Turkish language as their hobby, because this is a popular vacation place, with sun, beaches, tasty food and friendly waiters.

    sooner or later (probably sooner) confront their own on a battlefield

    I doubt this, especially after all saw Erdogan’s festival of apologies (in Russia) in 2016.

    I found the part of Erdogan which is particularly scary, is more how he building mosques in European cities.

  124. @Dmitry

    The Russian love for Turks could be a lot simpler. Maybe Russian women love Turkish men. Yes, that is a disgusting thought but perhaps that is the primary driver.

  125. @LG

    I have personal reasons to feel grateful to the USSR/Russia. Education and experience that I got there made me very successful in American science. I my experience with former USSR/RF residents living in the US, the successful ones tend to have good feelings towards Russia, whereas losers drip venom. This is understandable: they need someone to blame for being losers. As losers never blame themselves for anything (that’s why they are hopeless losers), they blame their country of origin. Naturally, this does not apply to the scum whose job is Russophobia, but I am talking about decent people.

    So, those Armenians who have personal reasons to care about Armenia would behave differently from those who don’t.

    Strategically, I disagree: in the grand scheme of things Syria is more important than Armenia. In any case, Russia should do whatever serves its selfish interests best, and the rest be damned.

    Things might be changing, though. Aspiring sultan signed a number of agreements with Kiev regime, which is a big demerit for him from Russian perspective. If the reports that US is sending arms to Azerbaijan via Turkey are true (at least half of the reports in media of all persuasions are lies), Russia should help Armenia. Simple logic being, if the Empire supports any side, Russia should support the other.

    As to alleged civilizational links, I am not a believer in these. I believe that the only guide of Russian foreign policy should be self-interest. However, Russia should not be myopic, like the Empire, and evaluate its self-interest looking many steps ahead. Putin appears to be trying just that, taking advantage of the fact that he is smarter than all Western “leaders” put together.

    Also, there is one important lesson that RF should have learned from the mistakes of the USSR: no good deed ever goes unpunished.

  126. @Agathoklis

    You sound like a cheated wife. Take heart, you are not alone: that’s the mainstay of Greek foreign policy for some years now.

  127. 128 says:

    So now Erdogan is refusing to recognize Russia’s annexation of the Crimea? People getting their just desserts? And are not there a bunch of Circassians still stuck in Anatolia?

  128. LondonBob says:
    @Dmitry

    They can holiday in Syria or Greece instead.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @Dmitry
  129. @LondonBob

    For those who only have Russian passport Turkey has a huge advantage over Greece: you don’t need a visa (you pay $20 at entering and they put what they call “visa” into your passport). So far, there is no war in Turkey, just raging covid, in contrast to Syria, where there are both problems.

  130. @Agathoklis

    I mean, I’m a moderate Armenophile, but some of their “strong” supporters seem to be working overtime to make me consign them to the rest of the Caucasian bin, like AnonFromTN and Ano4 have. (Kind of like how Gerard’s commentary probably disposes readers in a negative direction towards Russia, in net terms). Not that there’s a real risk of that, since I don’t make up my views based on random Internet commenters. But that doesn’t necessarily apply to other people…

    • Agree: TheTotallyAnonymous
  131. 128 says:

    Does Putin or his circle have any financial interests in Turkey?

    • Replies: @Ano4
    , @Blinky Bill
  132. Ano4 says:
    @128

    Ever heard of Gazprom?

    🙂

  133. @128

    Does Putin or his circle have any financial interests in Turkey

    Yes!

    [MORE]

    Here’s what we know about Trump’s business ties in Turkey:
    The Trump family has extensive business ties in Turkey, and Trump in a 2015 interview with Breitbart suggested there could be a conflict of interest. “I have a little conflict of interest because I have a major, major building in Istanbul,” Trump said at the time. “It’s a tremendously successful job. It’s called Trump Towers — two towers, instead of one, not the usual one, it’s two.”

    Trump Towers Istanbul continues to generate revenue for Trump as part of the Trump Organization. Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter and a White House adviser, traveled with her father to Turkey for the launch of Trump Towers Istanbul in 2012. Ivanka directly thanked Erdogan in a tweet. Trump also tweeted about it a few times.

    Erdogan called for having Trump’s name removed from Trump Towers Istanbul in 2016, accusing then-presidential candidate Trump of Islamophobia. Trump had called for banning all Muslims from entering the US during his 2016 campaign.

    Trump licenses his name to the owner of the building and made $1 million to $5 million in royalties in 2015 and 2016. And he made $100,001 to $1 million for 2017 and 2018, according to his financial disclosures.Turkish business magnate Aydin Dogan owns the building. The Dogans invested $400 million in Trump Towers and Trump has boasted about their “great friendship.”

    The Trumps also have a close relationship with Mehmet Ali Yalcindag, Dogan’s son-in-law, who’s the president of the Turkish-American Business Council (TAIK). In 2017, TAIK held a conference the Trump International Hotel in Washington, DC, which was attended by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, according to NBC News.

    Yalcindag in an interview last year expressed hope that Trump would make foreign policy decisions that give Turkey more power to address regional issues and problems near its borders (Syria borders Turkey). He signaled that businesspeople were ready to act to help alleviate tensions between Ankara and Washington.

    Turkish officials have visited Trump properties 14 times, more than officials from any other country, according to a CREW analysis performed for NBC News. There have also been four Turkish-government related events at Trump’s hotel in Washington, according to CREW.

  134. Jazman says:
    @Avery

    I have something for you
    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop?s=09
    They are pro NATO and look like enjoy AZ drone killing actions
    Lot of videos . If they claimed all this loses Armenia will soon run out of tanks and AD systems

  135. @Ano4

    Houston…… we have a d*ckhead

    What a despicable snake you are. Anti-russian, constantly duplicitously sealing your a*s on here.

    So, in your BS “logic”, the none NATO, non-EU Switzerland is now
    blackmailing Russia over Donbass? ……even though they never thought to do it over Crimea that happened 2 minutes before then, or because of giving residency to Snowden, Priednistroviye, South Ossetia, Russia getting 2018 world cup, or to get further privatisation of russian state companies, or Syria, gas pipelines, or the many other things involving the west against Russia? LOL

    Why did you not just go full psycho you cretin and say Prince Albert of Monaco is the true leader of the world and claim he forced Putin into “defeat” in Ukraine by blackmailing that he won’t allow the wives of Russian elite access to the best manicurists in Monte Carlo?

    Also, most oligarchs are a western asset and creation you dimwit… a middleman or front man for THEIR corrupt business strategies. You can just claim this BS ” threatening to expose or freeze foreign money of Putin” any time you want when you’re having your childish tantrums…. it still doesn’t change that it’s nonsense.

    Crimea was autonomous region with a parliament that gave Russia sufficient legal reason ( in addition to the very significant practical and moral reasons) to unify it. Donbass is different legally. In addition, reuniting Crimea involves huge, but justified financial costs. Reuniting Donbass and Crimea at same time into Russia is economic suicide–not even considering oil price drop that happened immediately then. For America it would be impossible to incorporate 22 million people ( proportional equivalent) overnight…. at the same time as most of the world’s richest countries declaring financial war on them.

    “Sacrificed” DNR/LNR? They are still there you cretin. Banderastan state in permanent failure and unable to make even incremental gains against DNR/LNR. How is that “sacrificed”… particularly when, even with the big logistical problems and financial problems in Donbass… ukrops are stampeding to get Russian citizenship in much higher numbers outside DNR/LNR, than in it, even though the policy was mainly targeted at them!
    Crimes against them are disgusting but he had to believe that Poroshenko as new President would not be the disaster he was, hope for that with no option but to wait/minimise 3 months of crimes against Donbass people before his inauguration at end of May….. or that there was some genuineness in Western politicians and groups in concern at war crimes and human rights abuses by ukronazi vermin….. but of course they were not.

    Despite your idiocy, Putin does need to clarify why they gave people of Donbass the idea they were imminently going to reunify with Russia, and exact differences with Crimea scenario. Unfortunately no foreign or Russian journalist has actually asked him that.

  136. LondonBob says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Turkey is possibly more dangerous than parts of Syria, Tartus is wide open as a potential Rus holiday destination.

  137. 128 says:

    Why can’t MANPADS be effective against drones? Why can’t something like this (which Armenia has) be effective against drones?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZSU-23-4_Shilka#Deployment

  138. Dmitry says:
    @AnonFromTN

    That is not a significant difference in cost, just some preplanning. For Greece you just need Schengen visa, around $40 (at least in previous years), almost little paperwork, valid for 26 countries.

    Turkey’s popularity is because it is offering better value for money for family tourists, compared to Mediterranean competitors – cheaper hotels. Also you hear people saying better food (at the low price point) and more friendly staff. In Turkey, I’ve never been, so cannot say more.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  139. Dmitry says:
    @LondonBob

    Greece – for family tourists who rest in the beach or swimming pool, it’s generally considered a lot less value for money than Turkey, which has more competitive prices. (People like me, who will travel to see ruin sites we dreamed about from reading ancient literature, are not a common demographic.)

    Syria – on average only 6 tourists from Russia visit Syria each week, according to last year’s figures. With these numbers, I assume you have government guides protecting every tourist there, so it’s not as dangerous as it sounds.

    Tourists who visit Syria are likely to be “content creators”. For example, Varlamov (the most visited blog in Russia) is visiting Syria every year. It’s not for normal people, who want somewhere to rest with their family for 2 weeks in a year in an all inclusive resort.

    Probably Karlin (as professional “content creator”) should visit Syria, if he wants to make a “go viral” travel journals or YouTube videos.

    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
  140. Dmitry says:

    What end results looks like on the ground, of one of these Azerbaijan drone strikes we saw so many of on YouTube this week.

    War in the first half of the 21st century: your body rots in the field after being killed by a type of professional gamer, who was excitedly pressing buttons on an imitation of a playstation controller. (Of course, the next stage of history is inevitable – war in the second half of the 21st century: you will be killed by non-player characters from a video game).

  141. @Dmitry

    The bodies are not as badly mutilated as one would expect.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  142. @Dmitry

    I am aware that the issue is not the cost ($20 and $40 is all the same for Russians), it’s the headache and uncertainty. Turkey beats Greece in that there is no paperwork for Russians and you can buy any tour or airplane tickets w/o a chance that you won’t be admitted.

    I was in Greece three times and in Turkey once. Money was not a problem, so we have no experience with “all included” beach places. Besides, we’d be bored spending more than three days on the same beach. We travelled individually, rented cars and took flights, rented apartments, villas (what they call villas, I’d call them houses), or hotels, etc., went to Santorini, Crete, Milos, Pelion (Pilio in Greek), and Meteora in Greece, Cappadocia in Turkey.

    In my experience, food is good in both countries. There are lots of things to see in both (historic places, local products, including carpets, pottery, and jewelry, etc.). Greece has deeper history (going back ~3,000 years), the territory of Turkey has some of it, too, but moderns Turks have nothing to do with it, they are relatively recent conquerors. Then again, outside of Athens Greeks look and behave like backward North Caucasians or Azeris, you’d never tell that they have long history of civilization. In cafes outside of Athens you see mostly men, like in Dagestan or Azerbaijan.

    Service is pretty good in both, but Turks are a lot more organized. Besides, roads in Turkey have good signs, whereas in Greece if you are driving w/o GPS, you’d be lost. Istanbul looks like a normal Mediterranean city despite the profusion of mosques, women are dressed like humans, no burkas in evidence. Ankara looks a lot more backward and Islamic. We liked both Greece and Turkey, there are places in both we’d like to visit yet, but it might not happen: the world is big, while life is short.

    • Thanks: Dmitry
    • Replies: @Dmitry
  143. @Dmitry

    (People like me, who will travel to see ruin sites we dreamed about from reading ancient literature, are not a common demographic.)

    Not disagreeing with your general post…..but Turkey has about a million of similar sites also. Remember that 2 of the 7 “ancient Wonders of the world” are there. Ephesus was always very busy the times we have visited. I remember being very eager to visit the Temple of Artemis which was less then 2 hours from where we were staying, even though I knew that near nothing of the temple exists now and it would be a waste of time! There were other places on that trip that day we were going to visit so it gave me the opportunity to see it anyway. On the journey there , another temple ( I think Apollo) is there which is still very visible and was in the thinking to be one of the “wonders of the world” also.

    Most Greek family/beach/party holidays are on the many islands…..different to Turkey which is mainly on the mainland. I can’t say with 100% certainty, but I think in the last 10 years that Turkish cuisine has become alot more prominent in western countries compared to Greek restaurants – the inverse was true before then.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  144. @AnonFromTN

    Millions of Russians each year visit Italy, Turkey, Spain, Thailand, France, Vietnam, Cyprus, before the terrorist attack Egypt, China …….we travel in huge numbers to Montenegro, UK, Israel. Hopefully Tanzania will be also ( one of the few countries we have resumed flights with!)
    We are extremely well-traveled people to all types of places.

    No excuse for our tourism numbers in Greece to be relatively bad. I can only think our Greek “brothers” not doing enough at top political level or minor official level.

    On a separate issue…I have never seen a Pole ANYWHERE in Turkey. Of course when I went to Majorca, Spain last year I did not see any of them there at all,particularly in the famous Catholic cathedral, which had an army of other Russians visiting ( Majorca is a perfect spectrum of places for the low-income, middle-class, super-rich, idiots/intellectuals and people of all ages to go to for holiday).
    Several Russian property offices there on the main roads where tourists on the bus or in taxi will go past ( banner for the office written in Russian) advertising numerous properties for middle-class (i.e it not for the oligarchs!)

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  145. @Gerard-Mandela

    I’ve met Russians virtually everywhere I travelled to, except for a few out-of-the way small towns in Europe where you can only get by driving. I strongly suspect that some of them might have been from Ukraine: sane Ukrainians nowadays are ashamed to acknowledge where they come from and to speak anything but Russian and atrocious English in public.

    The only places where I met few if any Russians were Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, and Japan. I understand that Latin America is too far, and Japan is grossly overpriced. But the distance to other Asian countries is comparable to the distance to Thailand (never been there, but rumor has it that there are plenty of Russians). Malaysia and Indonesia are fairly cheap, Korea is moderately priced. Korean cosmetics are as good as French and a lot cheaper in Korea. In both Greece and Turkey I saw restaurant menus in Russian (sometimes with funny mistakes).

    Interestingly, in Argentina in Patagonia we met a Latvian tour guide who asked the permission to practice his Russian on us.

    • Thanks: Gerard-Mandela
    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  146. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    sane Ukrainians nowadays are ashamed to acknowledge where they come from and to speak anything but Russian and atrocious English in public.

    Stop and think about what you write and say in public,Professor, your Ukrainophobia is weighing you down! 🙂

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  147. Mr. Hack says:
    @Dmitry

    Why would so many seemingly patriotic Russians chose to leave Russia and go and live in Turkey?

  148. @Mr. Hack

    I know, truth hurts (in Russian “правда глаза колет”). My condolences.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  149. Dmitry says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    I’m not medically trained in any way (maybe we should ask AP – he is doctor), but I assume this is death by “primary blast injury”. Death from the internal injuries caused by the blast wave.

    https://www.cdc.gov/masstrauma/preparedness/primer.pdf

  150. Dmitry says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    I understand there are many ancient interesting ruins in Turkey, and that food and service, is also supposed to be at a high level.

    Still I wouldn’t visit Turkey for now, because I don’t want to be even at such a minor and insignificant level complicit in contributing to Erdogan’s economy (I’m generally apolitical, but a feeling of being in Erdogan’s country might give me such a mood to not enjoy the vacation).

    I’ll wait until Turkey has a different government before visiting them.

    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
  151. Dmitry says:
    @AnonFromTN

    When I was in Athens some years ago, I don’t remember thinking any restaurants were so special (but to be honest we went to things like a Chinese and Italian restaurant there), and the atmosphere of the city was a little shabby and depressed, graffiti and not exactly flourishing – was winter which added a bit to this. I’ve also been in Crete and Corfu as a child.

    But for me, just the feeling of being in Greece for a few days, is a pleasure and exciting. I love reading anything about Ancient Greece – and that we are nowaways able to see where these stories had actually happened, is a privilege.

    I have little opportunity to travel for pleasure, but when this pandemic is over, I’m thinking I have to go to visit Greece again and see as much as possible there.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  152. @Dmitry

    Still I wouldn’t visit Turkey for now, because I don’t want to be even at such a minor and insignificant level complicit in contributing to Erdogan’s economy (I’m generally apolitical, but a feeling of being in Erdogan’s country might give me such a mood to not enjoy the vacation).

    Interesting. What is your main reason here? His Israel policy? “Human rights”? Russia? Kurds? Syria? Combination of everything?

    We all have different principles but I would not have a problem visiting apartheid South Africa if it was still in existence. I would probably attempt to make my conscience better by “tipping” some Africa helping me on the holiday more than I usually would – but that is all. Amusingly, during the times of apartheid white South africans had pragmatic principles – people from wealthy Japan were classified as whites and had easy entry there, but those from then poor China were classified as “blacks”

    I have had to visit Estonia, Gruzia and Lithuania numerous times for various reasons in the last 6 years and gone to America once for holiday in the last 8 years, UK and France. Using your logic I would never have gone to these vermin states because I strongly disagree with their policies towards Russia.

    Extreme ignorance here, but as I understand it, Erdogan insults Israel alot but never does anything practical against it except funding non-military projects in Palestine/food and does nothing with Hezbollah etc?

    I became neutral or fine with him after the coup attempt against him, allegedly made by Gulenists. Somebody did something that night…..but not one of his many enemies made a claim about what actually happened – just moaned about the arrests that occured after – which were very minor things to do considering afew hundred people died and attempt was made to overthrow him! This totally discredits them ( domestic opposition and non-Russia international community) in my view

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  153. @Dmitry

    I’ve only been in Greece in Spring and summer, never in winter. Of course, Athens is poor, a lot poorer than Moscow. As far as I remember, it looks shabbier than Penza or Nizhni Novgorod today. But it has Parthenon (with nearby Acropolis and Parthenon museum) and many ruins that are more than 2,000 years old. Of course, Parthenon is not intact: Turkish ammo warehouse blew up there, then Brits stole Elgin marbles. Still, it’s a place where European civilization started. Too bad it’s in its death throws today; the people who burned down Notre Dame cannot be trusted with preserving their cultural heritage. I found Delphi very impressive, although we drove there in a roundabout way: it was before GPS, and Greek road signs are virtually non-existent beyond a few miles of the highway in Athens. I also found Meteora interesting. Some monasteries have museums of Greek resistance to Italians in WWII, which opened a side of history I never knew before. I was impressed by Agamemnon tomb at Mycenae, not so much by what’s left, but by the fact that Homer wrote about him.

    My favorite island is Santorini, it’s as close to paradise as you can get on Earth (if you have enough money, though). They make a lot better wine than mainland Greece. They make lots of jewelry, mostly copying old designs, but that’s much better than modern style. We visited a place where a guy makes copies of ancient Greek pottery, very good ones. We bought one, and he shipped it to the States, it arrived safely. BTW, we discovered that he got his artistic education in St Petersburg and speaks some Russian, which we speak when we don’t want the people around us to understand. Unfortunately, when we drove there Akrotiri dig was closed to visitors, but we visited an excellent winery on our way and bought 10 bottles of good wine. Milos was interesting in that it has numerous beaches, and they are all different. The problem there, as well as on Crete and in Pilio, is Greek roads –even secondary Russian roads tend to be better. But I drove on them and am still alive.

    The best food in Greece is fish and seafood, but it’s the most expensive. I like authentic Greek salad (in contrast to shit that is called Greek salad in the US). It includes cucumbers, tomatoes, olives, feta cheese, and olive oil. Thank goodness, it does not include lettuce. Greek veggies smell and taste as they should, unlike what is sold as tomatoes and cucumbers in the US.

    Most archaeological and historic sites in Turkey are actually Greek – Turks were warrior nomads, like Mongols, they only built mosques, and destroyed everything else. Greeks are still sore at Turks, sometimes in comic ways. The thing that is called Turkish coffee all over the world is called Greek coffee in Greece.

    • Thanks: Dmitry
    • Troll: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  154. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Indeed, it does hurt, to know that there’s a certain (small but visible) segment of the Ukrainian population that work against their own, denigrating so much of their own vibrant culture. In the past, they would be just referred to as janissary, but today? Sovoks, vatniks…my mother would just refer to these sorts of people as “хруні”*. I just think of these Judases as plain everyday гадюґа.

    [MORE]

    * Хрунь — лайливе прізвисько підлої, продажної людини, запроданця

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  155. Dmitry says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    What is your main reason here? His Israel policy? “Human rights”? Russia? Kurds? Syria? Combination of everything?

    I think it would be combination, especially in terms: Islamism, Neoottomanizm and Populism.

    My knowledge of Turkey is small, but I believe that it before Erdogan had a secular, almost civilized and Europeanizing elite. And that is Erdogan has been a regressive cultural and political influence there (although economically he has managed to not to collapse it).

    Also the fact he is building mosques in other peoples’ countries (Western Europe) to expand his influence, where there is no tradition of his religion, is a negative for me.

    I would not have a problem visiting apartheid South Africa if it was still in existence. I would probably attempt to make my conscience better by “tipping” some Africa

    Well, I would like to visit Turkey. And I am usually very apolitical in my decisions (my political activity does not go further than posting opinions on this forum). But I will wait until they have a different government.

  156. @AnonFromTN

    The best food in Greece is fish and seafood, but it’s the most expensive. I like authentic Greek salad (in contrast to shit that is called Greek salad in the US). It includes cucumbers, tomatoes, olives, feta cheese, and olive oil.

    My Greek friend was adamant and very clear that Greek salad does not contain cucumbers:

    (Though in all fairness I continue to blasphemy on that particular point.)

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  157. @Mr. Hack

    When I was in kindergarten, we considered name-calling an argument. Not any more.

  158. @Anatoly Karlin

    Greek salad in Athens and on Milos we were served contained cucumbers. I am not Greek, so can’t vouch for its authenticity.

  159. @Dmitry

    Azeri have disproportionate influence in Iran post 1979.Most of the clerics are Azeri not Persian.

    Why would Azeris want to cede control of Iran and join Azerbaijan to form a land locked relatively insignificant country which has already passed peak oil production and whose per capita income would be less than half of Iran’s if it had to support this many additional Azeri on the same amount of oil.

    Baku has more to fear from Iranian clerics declaring Azerbaijan as an artificial country which should merge with Iran’s Azerbaijan province which us what in fact happened in the early 1990s.

    This is the primary reason Azerbaijan has thrown in its lot with Turkey since the late 1990s.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
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