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India Fertility Falls Below Replacement
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This the news from the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), covering the years 2019-20. (h/t Cicerone, now Tweeting as @BirthGauge):

Previous NFHS surveys at Wikipedia stretching to 1981.

India overall is now at TFR = 2.1 children per woman. Kerala, long one of the lowest TFR states (as well as one of the most socially developed), is now middling.

But most interestingly, a number of states are approaching near East Asian lows. These are mainly the islands states (Sikkim at 1.1), and – most curiously – majority Muslim Jammu and Kashmir (1.4).

Bihar, the worst Indian state, has the highest TFR.

I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Demographics, Fertility, India 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.

    That’s good news, isn’t it? Especially if it’s true.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  3. BenB says:

    Speaking of population policy etc, China’s latest population plan with its explicit recognition of eugenic goals (literally to improve the quality of the population a la Lee Kuan Yew style it seems) has western academics “very worried.”

    https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/chinas-five-year-plan-proposal-stresses-eugenics-in-birth-policy-says-expert-96671

    American globohomo can’t decline fast enough to allow the Chinese to hopefully set the dialogue around these issues. More states need to try emulate the Chinese example.

  4. Lin says:

    Definitely the Indians have made progress towards trimming their popn growth and their fertility ration should be around ‘replacement’ but I’m not sure if it’s below. Problem is india lacks the admin machinery and/or political will to do sensitive large scale statistics; a good example is their un(or under)employment figures are quite understated. The last time they did a nation wide census was back in 2011(the 2021 one is coming..)and the national total figure seemed to be 20-30 millions understated..challenged by UN studies if I remember right.
    ……..
    Right now, it’s hard to get more accurated indian popn number; I once searched the web:
    — India 1,326,093,247 (july 2020 est) from ‘CIA world factbook’

    –1,386,814,340 ‘live data’ from ‘worldmeters’ site, just a minute ago

    –1,393,633,833 ‘live data’ from ‘countrymeters’ site, 6 months ago

    –From ‘tradingeconomics’ , less than 1.32 billion in 2020 https://tradingeconomics.com/india/population
    ………..
    Another phenomena is that their landlocked hindu belt south of the Himalayas have the highest density. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a combined popn exceed 370 million

  5. What about Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indian Muslims? If the fertility of the higher Varna declines, while the Dalit and Islamics proliferate in the Indian subcontinent, then it isn’t very healthy in the long run.

  6. Some population projections for South Asia. Interesting to note how Pakistan has managed to close the gap when it comes to India/Pakistan population ratios. I wonder how much this new revision of fertility rates will change the UN projections? Did fertility fall faster or slower than expected. The drop in fertility for Ladakh and Nagaland (both inhabited by Mongoloids notably) is quite staggering.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @TG
    , @AltanBakshi
  7. India still has almost 5% youth mortality rate, that is, almost 5% of children born will die before reaching the age of 15. Taking this into consideration India has probably had below replacement fertility since 2017.

    This is a pretty embarrassing statistic as only a few other countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa has this high youth mortality. The good news is that it’s quickly improving.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  8. @Lin

    I have heard a rumour (from an image board no less) that many Third World countries inflate their population numbers in order to squeeze more aid from bodies like the UN, as aid is often a function of population.

    Another phenomena is that their landlocked hindu belt south of the Himalayas have the highest density. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a combined popn exceed 370 million

    An interesting map

    • Replies: @raga10
  9. @BenB

    From the Catholic News Agency report:

    “I am actually very worried,” Columbia professor Leta Hong Fincher told a panel of China experts via video link at a virtual event by the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) Nov. 13.

    “What caught my eye was that they actually use specific language saying that China needs to ‘upgrade population quality.’ They need to ‘optimize their birth policy.’ They even use a term … which is effectively emphasizing the role of eugenics in population planning in China,” she said.

    Very worrying indeed, doesn’t China know only downgrading population quality is kosher these days? On a serious note, this is promising to hear that they are taking these factors into consideration, China will enter a fairly steep decline in population within the next 20 or so years and maintaining good human capital is essential during this time, especially considering how the smartest people tend to migrate to cities from the countryside, and after which their cohort’s fertility rate plummets through the floor.

    • Agree: BenB
    • Replies: @Not Raul
  10. Wyatt says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    That’s what God made napalm for.

    • LOL: Bashibuzuk
  11. raga10 says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    I have heard a rumour (from an image board no less) that many Third World countries inflate their population numbers

    I couldn’t care less if they fudge their numbers one way or another because I’ve been there and I’ve seen it with my own eyes: in any case, there is far more than enough of them!

  12. @Bashibuzuk

    What about Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indian Muslims? If the fertility of the higher Varna declines, while the Dalit and Islamics proliferate in the Indian subcontinent, then it isn’t very healthy in the long run.

    By 2050, India to have world’s largest populations of Hindus and Muslims

    Due to these factors, India’s Muslim community will expand faster than its Hindu population, rising from 14.4% in 2010 to 18.4% in 2050. But, even with this increase, Hindus will make up more than three-in-four Indians (76.7%) in 2050. Indeed, the number of Hindus in India will still be larger than the five largest Muslim populations in the world’s biggest Muslim countries (India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh) combined.

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Bashibuzuk, AltanBakshi
  13. Svevlad says:
    @BenB

    Hhahahha i can already see the globohomo peddlers seething, dying en masse from aneurysms when even catching a glimpse of China on the map

    And seeing that the chinese own Africa, likely they’ll impose an even more extreme version there. Oh boy now that will be interesting to see

  14. A factor to consider in understanding China’s fertility rate is even worse than at first glance is the disastrous sex ratio at birth. Worldwide, the normal ratio at birth is 105 boys for 100 girls. The sex ratio at brith in China has been abnormal for 40 years. On top of abnormal SRB during the 90s and 00s, the infant mortality rate for baby girls was also highly abnormal indicating widespread mistreatment and infanticide.

    Some parts of China, particularly a backwards belt of Henan-Jiangxi-Anhui fared far worse than even 120 boys for 100 girls during the peak period of skewed births. Skewed SRB is still a problem but barely anyone in China talks about this. For comparison in the data available from NFHS-5, the state with the worst SRB is Bihar at 110 boys for 100 girls. The worst states in India used to be Punjab and Haryana. A lot of credit goes to India and Modi for talking about the skewed sex ratio and tackling the problem unlike the pusilaminous way of Chinese society. The trend in China is to ignore and mainly allow increasing urbanization to have a second order effect of gradually lowering SRB. Modi in 2015 launched a frontal assault by jailing thousands of medical personnel who faciliated sex selective abortion and got very good results in a short time. There’s no data for NFHS-5 yet but a lot of improvement is expected for Punjab and Haryana (120 boys for 100 girls in 2015).

  15. BenB says:
    @Svevlad

    Incidentally, Galton himself proposed letting the Chinese displace Sub-Saharan Africans in Africa. His commentary on the Chinese is remarkable (basically anticipates all the current HBD wisdom):

    https://galton.org/letters/africa-for-chinese/AfricaForTheChinese.htm

    “The Chinaman is a being of another kind, who is endowed with a remarkable aptitude for a high material civilization. He is seen to the least advantage in his own country, where a temporary dark age still prevails, which has not sapped the genius of the race, though it has stunted the developed the of each member of it, by the rigid enforcement of an effete system of classical education which treats originality as a social crime. All the bad parts of his character, as his lying and servility, spring from timidity due to an education that has cowed him, and no treatment is better calculated to remedy that evil than location in a free settlement. The natural capacity of the Chinaman shows itself by the success with which, notwithstanding his timidity, he competes with strangers, wherever he may reside. The Chinese emigrants possess an extraordinary instinct for political and social organization; they contrive to establish for themselves a police and internal government, and they give no trouble to their rulers so long as they are left to manage those matters by themselves. They are good-tempered, frugal, industrious, saving, commercially inclined, and extraordinarily prolific. They thrive in all countries, the natives of the Southern provinces being perfectly able to labor and multiply in the hottest climates. Of all known varieties or mankind there is none so appropriate as the Chinaman to become the future occupant of the enormous regions which lie between the tropics, whose extent is far more vast than it appears, from the cramped manner in which those latitudes are pictured in the ordinary maps of the world.”

    It’s really too bad the Chinese didn’t colonize Africa proper instead of instituting that 1-child policy. I’m sure (((they))) would’ve had a much easier time trying to convince the Chinese to go the way of Rhodesia or South Africa LOL.

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    , @Anon729
  16. TG says:

    You do not understand. You miss the point.

    A low fertility rate is NOT a good thing if it is due to people being chronically malnourished and physically unable to have large numbers of children!!!!!!

    Right now, about 48% of Indian Children are so malnourished that they grow up to be physically stunted – and most of the rest are not much better off.

    Tell me, if someone has three kids, and they are chronically malnourished, well, it is physically impossible for them to have seven kids, yes? So how is ‘only’ having three kids progress?

    A recent survey found that in India, the provinces with the highest levels of malnutrition had the lowest fertility rates. Golly gee, how could that be true?

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/392014/

    John Stuart Mill had it right: people should not have more children than they can REASONABLY support. It is impossible to have more children than you can barely manage to support at miserable malnourished subsistence, sure, but that’s not a good thing. Is it?

    India’s fertility rate is slowing because it’s hitting the limits. That is not good.

  17. TG says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    A drop in fertility is NOT good if it is due to women being so chronically malnourished that they cannot conceive or bring a pregnancy to term. Just saying.

  18. Yevardian says:

    Best news I’ve heard all year!

  19. I expect most of India to hit current East Asian (Taiwan/S. Korea/etc) “lowest low” fertility by the 2030s.

    Hard to believe, but great news not only for India but all this poor overburdened earth.

    Count on the automatic-reflex “too much population growth isn’t enough” morons to weep and wail.

  20. Not Raul says:
    @AnonFromTN

    What about the stock market? Where will the Fortune 500 get their H1-Bs now? Iowa?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  21. Not Raul says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    This would help explain why the Chinese abscond with Uyghur women.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  22. Not Raul says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    China will enter a fairly steep decline in population within the next 20 or so years and maintaining good human capital is essential during this time, especially considering how the smartest people tend to migrate to cities from the countryside, and after which their cohort’s fertility rate plummets through the floor.

    Wouldn’t these trends decrease the risk of China starting a major war? With a smaller, higher quality (more valued) population, they might not think that they have lots of excess lives to waste in wave after wave of attacks.

    Mao was willing to lose lots of lives in Korea. Deng was willing to lose a lot less in Vietnam.

  23. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Meghalya is also populated mainly by mongoloids and TFR is very high there.

    These are mainly the islands states (Sikkim at 1.1)

    Sikkim is a formerly independent Himalayan state. They sadly lost their independence when after decades of illegal immigration majority of population had become Hindu Nepalis and native Buddhist Sikkimese had become a minority in their own country. Same almost happened to Bhutan, but Bhutanese wisely expelled hundreds of thousands illegal Nepali Hindu immigrants in the 90s. Now many of those Nepali “refugees” live in USA.

    I dont know how trustworthy this TFR data is, it shows that Telangana has same fertility rate as Andra Pradesh, even though Telangana is much poorer and has more Muslims than AP. Same with Orissa, its as poor state as Bihar, but the fertility is much lower than in Bihar.

    • Replies: @CCG
  24. @TG

    A drop in fertility is NOT good if it is due to women being so chronically malnourished that they cannot conceive or bring a pregnancy to term. Just saying.

    It is more due to just development and the greatest contraception of them all, television and other assorted gadgets.

    As with all other places, the inverse relation between socio-economic status and fertility still holds, so it’s not like malnourished women are having less kids than nourished ones, quite the opposite.

  25. Svevlad says:
    @BenB

    Too late now. The blacks are gonna have to take the eugenics pill whether they like it or not, since:

    1. The West will soon run out of gibs money
    2. Everyone has had enough of their shit too

  26. @Shortsword

    Yes, thank you for pointing this out. A replacement fertility rate for India would be around 2.7.

    People keep forgetting that there is no fixed replacement rate; 2.2 TFR is NOT replacement in the third world where mortality rates are so high.

  27. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    “George Soros: China Is a ‘Mortal Enemy’ of the West”

    WTF I love China now. If Soros is agin’em they can’t be that bad.

    • Agree: AnonFromTN
  28. @Not Raul

    Nah, that’s rare nationwide. It is Vietnamese, Thai, etc women they get with.

  29. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    He should know. He chaired the last meeting of Enemies of the West and they had a nice chance to catch up.

  30. @JohnPlywood

    A replacement fertility rate for India would be around 2.7.

    No, that’s way too high, 2.3 would be more than enough.

  31. @JohnPlywood

    People keep forgetting that there is no fixed replacement rate; 2.2 TFR is NOT replacement in the third world where mortality rates are so high.

    A paper published by Population Research and Policy Review: The surprising global variation in replacement fertility

    Shortsword‘s comment immediately above mine, is probably right, it is likely around 2.3-ish in South(-Central) Asia seeing as the figure for 1995-2000 was 2.426

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  32. @Not Raul

    Where will the Fortune 500 get their H1-Bs now?

    Good question. My answer: if their CEOs are Christians, may they rot in Hell. Along with every bought and paid for US politician.

  33. xxxeliss says:

    Bangladesh,Bhutan and Nepal are also below replacement fertility , in fact most asian countries are at or below replacement rate fertility ( the exceptions are Afghanistan ,Iraq,Israel ,Pakistan,Syria)

    • Replies: @Another German Reader
  34. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    No way bud, south-central Asia has a lot of former USSR states, which had Soviet-tier medical and sanitation technology back in the 1990s. East Africa is a better comparison to India from that chart.

    Even to this day, several countries in south-central Asia have better child mortality than India:

    India: 34 per 1k (2019)
    Kyrgyztsan: 18 per 1k
    Uzbekistan: 16.5 per 1k
    Tajikistan: 30 per 1k

    Large swathes of India are so underdeveloped they probably don’t even have good reporting on mortality; I doubt the entire country has a mortality rate of 34 per 1k.

  35. CCG says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Meghalaya is dominated by Catholicism, whereas Nagaland is dominated by Baptist Protestantism and Ladakh by Buddhism. The personal religious beliefs of the natives may explain the different TFRs.

  36. More African immigrants for the ones cheering I guess. 🤷‍♀️

    • Replies: @songbird
  37. songbird says:
    @Jatt Aryaa

    It’s not really a binary choice between accepting Indians and Africans. In fact, less Indians probably means less Africans because Indians promote open borders more effectively than blacks.

    Speaking of Indians and Africans, even though I despise Kamala, I am sympathetic to her mother. From looking at her picture, it seems her only options were to (1) go into a convent (I believe Hindus have none?), (2) to kidnap a Eurasian or an Indian man, or (3) to race-mix with a black.

    But her spawn should be in Africa, or at worst, among the Siddi in India, certainly not in the West.

    BTW, though I don’t wish it on anyone, I think Indians might face karma in 2100, when the African population bomb explodes, in their faces. But probably it will be in all our faces, the way things are going.

    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  38. Mr. XYZ says:

    FWIW, Sikkim is in the Himalayas; it’s certainly NOT an island!

  39. @xxxeliss

    Ding Ding Winner!

    Don’t call it proxy-wars, religous wars, ethnic wars, resource-wars!

    Call it surplus young men wars!

  40. @china-russia-all-the-way

    Oh look that dead horse again.

    #1: China’s one-child policies was actually a 1.5child policy: In rural areas parents were officially allowed to have a second child.

    #2: At the time registering for primary school, undocumented girls and boys just magically appeared and admitted into schools.

    #3: People – more even so man – have no delusion about love and romance. That means that underclass men just don’t get wives/gf. On the other hand if you are a stable man with solid foundations you will find a woman – maybe a few years later then Prince Charming.

    This is the contrast in the West, Tyrone – the gangster has got 3 baby-mamas while Clyde – the low level retail manager is still single in his late 20s.

    #4: Women, who would have other wise stay single/childless have been scooped up.

    #5: Chinese surveillance-state keeps potential rebellious men in check and the entertaiment-structure of an industrial societies’ economy keeps many men distracted.

    #6: Short-term relationship are quite common in many urban areas nowadays -> Essential a young woman’s way of shopping for husband until Mr Big is found. Kind of wife-sharing.

    #7: Prostitution is officially forbidden, but is flourishing allover China.

    #8: Mail-order wives

    All in all it’s not that bad as Western reporters make it up to be. China will be fine.

    The real crisis of men without gf/wives actually happens in the Middle East. Officially allowed polygamy combined with a stagnating economy that won’t allow lower middle-class men to become economically capable to start a marriage/family, is a real powder-keg.

    Further South there is a reason why a Chieftain’s wives/daughters are more likely to be raped than a normal man’s wives/daughters. Young rebel-fighters are deliberately raping upper-class men’s women as a cruelsome revenge on society. You can thank polygamy for it.

  41. Where is Uttar Pradesh? The whole exercise is worthless without UP in the picture…Hmm checked the website

    http://rchiips.org/nfhs/factsheet_NFHS-5.shtml

    It seems data from UP has not been collated yet…but surely cannot be worse than Bihar

  42. @songbird

    Indians only need to promote open borders because of your race neutral system, same with Jews.

    India is not some centralized caste bureaucracy where you just go and give a child to some tribe almost 1500mi away.

    The solution to Harris mother comes from Russia although I’m partial to the Talwar.

    The African bomb is already exploding, and by the mid 2030s will have more fighting men than Europe + MENA combined.

    There’s been scores of Nigerian illegals in recent years.

    My take on this Indian fertility thing is it will lead to more immigration in the medium term, say 2050.

    This is the continuation of previous trends and if the Slavs can send 1/3rd of their working age abroad, why can’t we? 🤷‍♀️

    Rhetorically, the only thing preventing even more Indian migration was racist canards about Indian over-breeding; which, the RW in their celebratory glee is already dismantling for us।।

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾ।।ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ।।

    • Replies: @songbird
  43. Anon729 says:
    @BenB

    Never understood why White nationalists care so much about the growth of Africa. If you are so worried about Africans moving to Europe, you could simply police your border and stop all immigration. It is so weird to me that you would wish genocide upon an entire continent for the policy decisions of your fellow whites. That level of hatred is mind boggling.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  44. songbird says:
    @Jatt Aryaa

    The African bomb is already exploding

    True, just look at the US, the past year.

    by the mid 2030s will have more fighting men than Europe + MENA combined

    No matter the numbers, I don’t think Africans are capable of winning a regular war without the benefit of African diseases wreaking havoc – hopefully, we can still break out the DDT, if the time comes for it.

    Though their corrupting influence on politics is not to be underestimated.

    • Agree: sher singh
  45. @Anon729

    Post Brexit, the UK government is going to substitute Romanian field hands with Egyptians and Tunisians and Lybians What could go wrong?

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @LondonBob
  46. Bihar is poor and was always poor. It was overpopulated for its technical level long ago. It was regularly a place of famine.

  47. @Lin

    Most likely India as already passed China in overall population… Like you said though – administration. As to fertility rate – It is shocking if it is down to 2.1 According to World meter – Bangladesh is now 2.1 as well. That is shocking indeed. Pakistan is still up at 3.6… I would have expected Bangladesh and India to be at similar levels. Peculiar

  48. Country, 1800, 2026p, 2100p, Absolute change (1800-2100), Relative change.

    🇨🇳 China 321.68M , 1.46B , 1.06B , +743.3M, 231%
    🇮🇳 India 168.57M , 1.46B , 1.45B , +1.28B, 758%

    Will India overtake China’s population before China’s economy overtakes the US one (Nominal). It will be close. The first is projected to happen in 2027, while the second in 2028.

    Perhaps the World’s most populous country is destined to never become it’s most economically important?

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  49. LondonBob says:
    @Philip Owen

    They would be a policy choice of the government, nothing inevitable about it. Anyway interesting to see what happens politically now Brexit is done, can see the Reform Party burying the Conservatives, rising fury about lockdown amongst people I know, and the bill hasn’t even had to be paid yet.

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