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Book Review: Michel Houellebecq - Submission
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Michel Houellebecq SUBMISSION (2015)
Rating: 4/5

You can access all of my latest book, film, and video game reviews at this link, as well as an ordered, categorized list of all my book reviews and ratings here: https://akarlin.com/books


Finally read Houellebecq’s Submission a few weeks ago, filling in a major and hitherto embarrassing lacuna.

He is a master of characterization. Multiple extracts have had me laughing out loud:

I liked to catch the metro a little after seven to give myself the illusion that I was one of the ‘early risers’ of France, the workers and tradesmen. I was the only one who enjoyed this fantasy, clearly, because when I gave my lecture, at eight, the hall was almost completely empty except for a small knot of chillingly serious Chinese women who rarely spoke to one another, let alone anyone else. The moment they walked in, they turned on their smartphones so they could record my entire lecture. This didn’t stop them from taking notes in their large spiral notebooks. They never interrupted, they never asked any questions, and the two hours were over before I knew it. Coming out of the class I’d see Steve, who would have had a similar showing, only in his case the Chinese students were replaced by veiled North Africans, all just as serious and inscrutable. He’d almost always invite me for a drink – usually mint tea in the Paris Mosque, a few blocks from the university. I didn’t like mint tea, or the Paris Mosque, and I didn’t much like Steve, but still I went. The advancement of Steve’s career at the university, according to Marie-Françoise, was due entirely to the fact that he was eating Big Delouze’s pussy. This seemed possible, albeit surprising. With her broad shoulders, her grey crew cut and her courses in ‘gender studies’, Chantal Delouze, the president of Paris III, had always struck me as a dyed-in-the-wool lesbian, but I could have been wrong, or maybe she bore a hatred towards men that expressed itself in fantasies of domination. Maybe forcing Steve, with his pretty, vapid little face and his long silken curls, to kneel down between her chunky thighs brought her to new and hitherto unknown heights of ecstasy. True or false, I couldn’t get the image out of my head that morning, on the terrace of the tea room of the Paris Mosque, as I watched him suck on his repulsive apple-scented hookah.

But, literary quality aside – at least so far as this is concerned, I am a simpleton with quotidian tastes – what I am scouring it for is to relive the political and cultural load that accompanied it when it was published six years ago, on the eve of the Charlie Hebdo murders.

And my delay in reading Submission was, come to think of it, a silver lining, because it enables a more original take thanks to the benefit of hindsight as opposed to just a mediocre rewrite of Guillaume Durocher’s review.

Because the reference to Charlie Hebdo says it all.

In the book, Islam is portrayed as a reactionary ideal – a return to patriarchy, an end to atheism and progressiveness – that the tired and postmodernist Catholic traditionalism of France, even within its monastic heartlands of Rocamadour:

I remembered a conversation I’d had, years before, with a history professor at the Sorbonne. In the early Middle Ages, he’d explained, the question of individual judgement barely came up. Only much later, with Hieronymus Bosch for example, do we see those terrifying images in which Christ separates the cohort of the chosen from the legion of the damned; where devils lead unrepentant sinners towards the torments of hell. The Romanesque vision was much more communal: at his death the believer fell into a deep sleep and was laid in earth. When all the prophecies had been fulfilled and Christ came again, it was the entire Christian people who rose together from the tomb, resurrected in one glorious body, to make their way to paradise. Moral judgement, individual judgement, individuality itself were not clear ideas in the mind of Romanesque man, and I felt my own individuality dissolving the longer I sat in my reverie before the Virgin of Rocamadour.

… was no longer in a position to provision:

When it came to rejecting atheism and humanism, or the necessary submission of women, or the return of patriarchy, they were fighting exactly the same fight. And today this fight, to establish a new organic phase of civilisation, could no longer be waged in the name of Christianity. Islam, its sister faith, was newer, simpler and more true.

Sorry to see the spiritual heart of medieval “wax and incense” Christendom recede into history, but on the other hand – a 10,000 Euro per month salary for a university professor and three wives will sure ease the existential pain of its passing.

You see,’ he went on, ‘Islam accepts the world, and accepts it whole. It accepts the world as such, Nietzsche might say. For Buddhism, the world is dukkha – unsatisfactoriness, suffering. Christianity has serious reservations of its own. Isn’t Satan called “the prince of the world”? For Islam, though, the divine creation is perfect, it’s an absolute masterpiece. What is the Koran, really, but one long mystical poem of praise? Of praise for the Creator, and of submission to His laws.

But it would all be for the best, in the long run. Islam is implicit eugenic (well, absent all the cousin fucking):

Like most men, probably, I skipped the chapters on religious duties, the pillars of wisdom and child-rearing, and went straight to chapter seven: ‘Why Polygamy?’ The argument was original, I have to say: to realise His sublime plan in the inanimate world, the Creator of the universe used the laws of geometry (a non-Euclidean geometry, to be sure, a non-commutative geometry, but still a geometry). When it came to living beings, however, the Creator expressed Himself through natural selection, which allowed animate creatures to achieve their maximum beauty, vitality and power. And for all animal species, including man, the law was the same: only certain individuals would be chosen to pass on their seed, to conceive the next generation, on which an infinite number of generations depended. In the case of mammals, if you compared the female, with her long gestation period, to the male, with his essentially limitless capacity to reproduce, it was clear that the pressures of selection would fall principally on the males. If some males enjoyed access to several females, others would necessarily have none. So this inequality between males should be considered not a negative side effect of polygamy but rather its goal. It was how the species achieved its destiny.

But this was the Zeitgeist of 2015.

But we are now in 2021 and I see this browsing Twitter and Reddit:

Far from Islam eating up the West like a Tyranid hive fleet, before moving on to India and China who are likewise incapacitated through their “contamination by Western values”, it is in fact Western liberalism that ate Islam’s face like the Squig that bit back.

In Saudi Arabia, which in the book uses its oil wealth to buy up the Sorbonne and send all the women home to cook and breed and the gays back into the closet:

  • Women can now drive.
  • The religion police has been defanged. From what I gather, it’s no longer risky to privately espouse atheism.
  • Textbooks are getting purged of powerful takes.

And the main object of journalistic speculation now is whether MBS can modernize Saudi Arabia in time before electric vehicles end the oil age and send them into bankruptcy.

Meanwhile, in the Arab world as a whole, secularization is proceeding at breakneck speeds.

They no longer even really have the energy to do many terrorist attacks these days. Sad!

And Houellebecq had such high hopes of them:

Jesus had loved men too much, that was the problem; to let himself be crucified for their sake showed, at the very least, a lack of taste, as the old faggot would have put it. And the rest of his actions weren’t any more discerning, like when he absolved the adulterous woman, for example, with arguments such as ‘let him who is without sin’, etc. All you’d have had to do was get hold of a seven-year-old child – he’d have cast the first stone, the little fucker.

It increasingly looks like political Islamism was one of many passing Arab political fads that failed, like pan-Arab nationalism before it, and probably some kind of liberal socialism so far as the next generation is concerned.

All of which are ultimately concerned most concerned with the rather more practical and banal problem of solving the problem of Arab backwardness, as opposed to any deep metaphysical questions. One that Osama bin Laden correctly identified by wryly observing that more books are translated into Spanish every year than have ever been translated into Arabic. The result of this backwardness is that Arab polities are constantly manipulated and exploited by outside imperialists and all these political fads (nationalism, Islamism, etc.) are just flailing attempts to somehow arrest the process.

Although sadly this new vision will also probably fail, just like the previous ones, on account of the one redpill that Houellebecq hasn’t swallowed: Or at least doesn’t mention in order to remain handshakeworthy. Arabs are kinda dumb. Average IQ ~= 85 and all that.

And trending towards sub-replacement level fertility rates to boot. France has a higher TFR now than Algeria. Could have sworn I saw stats showing that, but apparently not. Anyhow – general point stands.

So far as the Muslim minorities of Europe are concerned, modern reality is far closer to the controversial 2020 film Cuties than it is to Submission, in in which they are just blank canvases used by Houellebecq to masterfully troll his right-wing fans.

I suppose the lesson to take away here is that there are few “essentialisms” in history.

After all, early Islam was more “progressive” than early Christianity (e.g. women got half the inheritance of a man, as opposed to zero). There were female lawyers in 13th century Baghdad. The 1,001 Nights is full of stories about Arab kings getting cucked by their wives by virile Tyrones, probably the greater restrictions on women placed by Islamic cultures is a response to their women being more flirtatious by default.

Houellebecq’s latest novel (2019) is Serotonin, which centers around the gilets-jaunes and the Red-Brown workers’ revolt against globalism. Again, he presages and captures the spirit of the times very well. But will it remain much relevant even half a decade hence? The populist backlash to neoliberalism was, in large part, a consequence of globalization and China’s “reserve army of labor” coming onboard and devaluing the labor power of Western workers. But China is becoming much richer, and there is no other China to replace China. We shall see.

***

Which, again, is not to say that I did not enjoy the book. It was masterfully written and had a humorous observation and HBD redpills and eternal truths on virtually every page.

The eternal truth of:

Factional, Judean People’s Front vs. People’s Front of Judea warring amongst the nationalists:

… the so-called nativist bloc was actually anything but. It was divided into various factions, none of which got along with the others. You had Catholics, followers of Bruno Mégret, royalists, neo-pagans, hard-core secularists from the far left … But all that changed when the “Indigenous Europeans” came along.

Rightoid idiocy:

Plus he plays well to the Catholic base, who find his stupidity reassuring.

Jewish diaspora lack of skin in the game:

We were standing at the door. I realised that I hadn’t the slightest idea, and also that I didn’t give a fuck. I kissed her softly on the lips, and said, ‘There is no Israel for me.’

Chinese robots:

I was the only one who enjoyed this fantasy, clearly, because when I gave my lecture, at eight, the hall was almost completely empty except for a small knot of chillingly serious Chinese women who rarely spoke to one another, let alone anyone else. The moment they walked in, they turned on their smartphones so they could record my entire lecture.

“The Wall”:

Year after year, I kept sleeping with students, and the fact that we were now teacher and student didn’t change things much at all. At the beginning, there was scarcely any age difference between us. Only gradually did an element of transgression enter in, and this had more to do with my rising academic status than with my age, real or apparent. In short, I benefitted from that basic inequality between men, whose erotic potential diminishes very slowly as they age, and women, for whom the collapse comes with shocking brutality from year to year, or even from month to month.

Russiagate:

When I tried to ask whether some of these groups were armed, he sipped his port, then grumbled, ‘We’ve heard talk of funding from Russian oligarchs – but nothing’s been confirmed.’

Of company being better than solitude:

A couple is a world, autonomous and enclosed, that moves through the larger world essentially untouched; on my own, I was full of chips and cracks, and it took a certain amount of courage for me to slip the information sheet into my jacket pocket and go out into the village.

Of comfort food:

It was beautiful, but was it realistic? Was it a viable prospect today? Clearly, it was connected with the pleasures of the table: ‘Gourmandise entered their lives as a new interest, brought on by their growing indifference to the flesh, like the passion of priests who, deprived of carnal joys, quiver before delicate viands and old wines.’ Certainly, in an era when a wife bought and peeled the vegetables herself, trimmed the meat and spent hours simmering the stew, a tender and nurturing relationship could take root; the evolution of comestible conditions had caused us to forget this feeling, which, in any case, as Huysmans frankly admits, is a weak substitute for the pleasures of the flesh.

 
• Category: Culture/Society • Tags: Books, France, Islam, Islamism, Liberalism, Review 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

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  2. songbird says:

    I understand the idea that polygamy is eugenic, in theory. But is it observably eugenic in reality?

    The regions and people most known for polygamy seem to largely be the dumbest. Of course, one can try to explain that away with cousin marriage, or lack of cold selection, or other factors, but I can see some limitations to that. It doesn’t explain why sub-Saharan genes have been on the increase among Arabs. Or why the Islamic Golden Age came to an end.

    It seems to me that one can take a different view of polygamy. Polygamy encourages greater paternal age – more de-novo mutations. It encourages war so men lower in the strata can find wives. (war is generally thought of as being dysgenic) Arguably, it encourages slavery – seems obvious that is dysgenic.

    But, maybe, those would not be factors today?

  3. Octavian says: • Website

    I posted this in an Urbit group about a month back:

    Read it in a single sitting: took about 6.5 hours and was cackling uncontrollably at the ending.

    It’s a novel that voyeuristically explores a potential tomorrow for France.

    The ending is pretty bloody obvious from the get-go, but that does nothing to detract from its elegance.

    It’s about 250 pages and the text is not dense, a remarkably swift read.

    Anyone interested in the green pill might find it a lark.

    Not going to endorse everything that Houellebecq represents – not that that matters much – but he is a remarkably interesting figure and I’ve not yet been disappointed by his work.

    Lots of wonderful little anecdotes/observations – it really is a very easy read. It was one of those book that can truly be described as ‘fun to read’, I was giggling throughout. I do hope anyone that finds this sort of thing interesting gives it a try.

    A hard recommendation from myself.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  4. Svevlad says: • Website

    I wonder what “true” Arab IQ is, after taking out the inbreeding and garbage tier nutrition

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    , @Yevardian
  5. And trending towards sub-replacement level fertility rates to boot. France has a higher TFR now than Algeria.

    2020 France TFR : 1.85

    2020 Ageria TFR : 3.05

    The descendants of the Maghrebi immigrants are now probably close to 20% of the Franch population, their TFR in France is higher than the TFR of Français de souche and those French citizens who are descended from European immigrants. I would think that once the contribution of the Beurs and Blacks is subtracted from the total French TFR, this value would be closer to 1.7.

    Submission is a good book…

    • Replies: @songbird
  6. @Svevlad

    The same as Jewish. They are originally the same population. The early Islam Arabs and today’s Arabs are two very different populations; tough times – strong men, good times – weak men. Arabs themselves acknowledge that they now live in the Age of Deacadence = Ahd el Inheetat.

    • Replies: @Wency
  7. songbird says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    In my view, there is an implicit danger that as the TFR of Muslims falls, they will become more cooperative with each other in trying to dispossess Europeans.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  8. @songbird

    East Asia had both de facto and de jure polygamy for eons with no particular IQ damage that I can see.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Bardon Kaldian
  9. Passer by says:

    Weak take with many issues.

    France has a higher TFR now than Algeria.

    No bimbo, Algerian TFR has increased to 3. French natives have around 1.65. Btw muslim TFR in France is nearly 3 as well. They are younger too, which contributes to higher birth rate even if TFR happens to be equal.

    So far as the Muslim minorities of Europe are concerned, modern reality is far closer to the controversial 2020 film Cuties than it is to Submission, in in which they are just blank canvases used by Houellebecq to masterfully troll his right-wing fans.

    No. Muslims generally do not integrate. You haven’t lived in a muslim area, but i have some experience. There is low level harassment against non-muslims, the value of property drops and they buy your property. They gradually get rid of non-muslims in the area. They stay away from others, and it is almost impossible to have a woman marry a non-muslim. The area will not accept it.

    Try living among muslims and you will change your opinion.

    Muslims continue to get circumcised en masse, which i suspect could be contributing to stronger level of cultural identity among muslims (and jews), compared to others.

    There is a reason why the french government and even Macron is triggered by muslims in France. Because their influence is increasing.

    It increasingly looks like political Islamism was one of many passing Arab political fads that failed, like pan-Arab nationalism before it

    It is still there, it hasn’t gone anywhere. And Central Asia is islamising, Taliban are near take over of Afghanistan, there are more newborn in Central Asia than in Russia, and this will be causing problems in the future for Russia.

    Meanwhile, in the Arab world as a whole, secularization is proceeding at breakneck speeds.

    Not in all countries. See Iraq or Yemen. And they are probably more islamised than before 40 years ago. There are limits to secularisation in muslim environment, and Turkey’s reversal away from Europe and towards Neo-Osmanism and towards the muslim world is a good case of that. Or second/third gen muslim minorities in Europe. And non-muslims continue to be oppressed in muslim countries.

    This is the reality of your “modern muslims”. Let’s hope you are not armenian.

    Simply there is something in Islam that prevents full secularisation. They are not like yourself. They have stonger identity.

    But i agree that the threat of islamisation is overrated. Under current trends, muslims would be around 30 % of the population of western european countries by 2100. It is still enough to blow up a country from within, although not enough to islamise it.

    Btw Europe is on the path of 4 billion Africa, with muslim countries (arab and black) being the closest ones. MENA as well can reach 900 million people, according to current UN estimates. Muslims overall are to reach one third of the world population by 2100.

    So Europe, and probably Russia, depending on how Central Asia will be handled, will have lots of trouble with muslims (and states) in the future. And there is high probability that the EU (median age of natives above 50 by 2050) may implode. Because a bunch of geriatric pensioners (worse than Japan) staying on the path of billions of muslims and africans does not look like a good combination.

  10. @Passer by

    You are correct on everything you wrote. I would also add that as all these trends come to fruition I expect that Jews will turn their backs on the West, mend the fences with the Arabs and embrace their Semitic roots. That would be a powerful combination: Jewish brains + Muslim numbers.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  11. Passer by says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    Israel will get multipolar too, already can be seen in their relations with Russia and China. And demographics are pointing towards de-europenisation of Israel.

    Btw Bashibuzuks were killing my people in the past. Interesting nick you have. : )

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  12. songbird says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    East Asia had both de facto and de jure polygamy for eons with no particular IQ damage that I can see.

    Perhaps, it is safer to do farther from Africa, or when you have rice agriculture and strong downward mobility. Paternal age might have mattered less in the past, anyway, due to higher childhood mortality.

    Polygamy was not uncommon among European (Christian) kings into the Middle Ages.

    TBH, I am somewhat inherently distrustful of it.

    A few other reasons: I think it is easy for an elite to monopolize resources, and keep out competitors, without necessarily being the best men. (For example, owning land and using it to by armor, good weapons, horses, and men to use them, or by creating dominant clans.) I’m also wary of what it might do to behavioral genes, beyond IQ – I think that is kind of unknown territory. (Maybe, increase pump and dump?)

    • Replies: @Wency
  13. @Passer by

    Sorry if it brings back painful thoughts.

    🙂

    • Thanks: Passer by
  14. @songbird

    The real danger is Muslims getting along with their Jewish cousins again.

  15. Wency says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    The same as Jewish.

    Similar to Mizrahi Jews, maybe, but not Ashkenazim, who appear to have undergone several centuries of selection for IQ while in Europe, and who also intermarried with Europeans.

    The usual comparison is to Arab Christian populations, such as in Lebanon and Egypt, who appear to be the closest match to what these populations were like in Roman times and who constitute a high-IQ elite in their home countries, while their lower-IQ Muslim neighbors carry more ancestry from sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. And, yes, more cousin marriage.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  16. Some Guy says:
    @Passer by

    Agree with much of this. Presumably at some point the apostasy rate and the fertility differential between secular and non-secular reach an equilibrium and further secularization stops? If the fertility differential is greater among Muslims, or their resistance to secularization is stronger, then the secularization process may stall at a pretty low rate. Right now the apostates are the most predisposed to apostasy, the lowest hanging fruit. The real test is apostasy of the median citizen.

    I laughed at AK describing those Saudi textbooks as “powerful takes” though, our guys have the best words.

    AK, you repeated the part of about “Chinese robots” btw.

  17. songbird says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    Don’t they already? On the regime level, it largely seems to be true.

    I heard Bernie was popular in Flint (and this was celebrated by Jews that I know personally), and both groups seem to be broadly open-borders and anti-racist.

    On the other hand, (though, I have watched zero Muslim television), from one or two promos that I’ve seen, I really get that the idea that when they need a character to play a foreign doctor or expert, they made damn sure that he can’t even be mistaken for a Jew.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  18. Mr. Hack says:

    Sorry to see the spiritual heart of medieval “wax and incense” Christendom recede into history, but on the other hand – a 10,000 Euro per month salary for a university professor and three wives will sure ease the existential pain of its passing.

    Christian influence at leading US colleges has been waning for decades now. Anybody remember that most of the Ivy league colleges in the US were started as Christian ones? Secular and atheistic professors that inhabit the modern ivy league towers are all lining up for Muslim conversion? Ron Unz has clearly shown that Jewish endowment of professorial chairs is prevalent in the US. Perhaps, in Europe this is not the case? Based on this review, I’d give the book a look.

  19. I don’t really understand why EU is only obsessed with Islam. I don’t think all of those secular North Africans/Iraqis etc… aren’t going to become a productive member of a society in the West. Christian African influx is way worse than Muslim Arabs. Also, you don’t see a lot of Turkish (Turk or Kurd albeit you see a lot of ethnic problem) or SEA origin Muslisms doing “bad things” (In certain extent it is true for Central Asians, at least in EU).
    I agree many comments talking against the so called secularization of Muslims. They’re part of the global world and have been integrated to it (esp. the West) in the previous decades. I mean many Saudi boys/girls drink alcohol occasionally in the West, it doesn’t mean they’re going to tolerate a lot of things associated with secular culture/lifestyle (Good luck talking about trans issues to hijabis, let alone niqaabi ladies…). That’s true for all Muslim societies across the world. AFAIK, data you published in your article is not a trustable ( I have seen it a quite a bit ago, I can’t recall why but it has to be with methodical issues.).
    I think Turkey is an excellent example (probably Iran as well but I don’t have a lot information about them, most of it is quite bias due to Iranians I have spoken) about this secularization bs. Many have repeatedly said that the young generation is more secular than previous one although the name of newborn kids say completely different picture (Majority have some weird Arabic name popularized in recent years.). I don’t have to talk about the desecularization of the country as it’s well known. All of these secularization is basically a cope for liberals since Islam is going to be part of the West (I think it’s similar to China and democracy.). When you also consider the higher religiosity of the most of the Muslim immigrants in the West (Erdogan is more popular in Germany than Turkey…), I wish Europeans good luck because that’s all they have.

    • Replies: @Another German Reader
  20. @Wency

    more ancestry from sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. And, yes, more cousin marriage

    Yes this was terribly dommageable. In certain Maghrebi regions the cousins marrying each other amounts to 80% of all weddings. Although the Ashkenazim are even more inbred, but you are correct they have been selected in Europe for higher IQ through a constant social pressure, while Muslim Arabs had it easy lording over the Kuffar.

    And Sub-Saharan black genetic influx was of course dysgenic, although to be fair they also have had some European genetic influx through the Andalus Muslims and Barbary coast pirates bringing in female slaves and the Berber having intermixed with the remaining Roman and Vandal populations.

  21. @songbird

    Don’t they already? On the regime level, it largely seems to be true.

    They are getting there, they are made for eachother. It will be a marvel to behold, especially for the Christian Zionists (Sarc.).

  22. Dmitry says:

    Western liberalism that ate Islam’s face

    Saudi politics is supposedly “top down”, so there must be a conscious choice of the royalty to try to modernize/liberalize. But I think this attempt at slight liberalization in politics in Saudi Arabia, will be predictable or inevitable considering the expansion of the bourgeoisie in Saudi Arabia, as result of the country’s economic growth.

    Saudi Arabia’s GDP per capita is now around at the same level as United Kingdom in 1997, which is the year that socially liberal Prime Minister Tony Blair was elected by the Kingdom’s growing middle class.

    Depending on the income distribution, there could be a similar proportion of middle class people in Saudi Arabia as exists in the poorer EU countries like Portugal. The rulers can be responding “top down” to what they see as an expanding demand for “modern” middle class politics from the citizens.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Passer by
  23. Wency says:
    @songbird

    It would seem that in environments where male labor is essential to put food on the table (i.e., most of Eurasia), polygamy has natural limits. A small ruling class may have many wives, but the demographic impact is small, especially in pre-industrial societies where women of marriageable (i.e. pre-childbirth) age tend to outnumber men due to higher all-causes mortality among boys/men, even in peacetime.

    If polygamy were ever extended so that a large proportion of men engaging in honest backbreaking labor had no realistic chance at marriage, then I would expect problems to emerge with motivating them to engage in said honest backbreaking labor, unless the lash is involved. Overthrowing the wife-hoarding elites would start to look more profitable for them.

    Polygamy was not uncommon among European (Christian) kings into the Middle Ages.

    Taking concubines was very common in medieval Europe, but the disapproval of church and society still counted for something. From my read of Chinese history, at least among the emperors you had a level of polygamy going on without parallel in Europe, constantly having boatloads of sons that they were barely unaware of.

    It does seem that China had more and worse peasant rebellions than Europe (at least prior to the Early Modern Period, when serfdom was breaking down), and I wonder if polygamy was a factor, but if so probably not the only factor. A lot of it is probably inherent to the nature of a decadent bureaucratic centralized state.

  24. songbird says:
    @Dmitry

    Saudi Arabia’s GDP per capita is now around at the same level as United Kingdom in 1997, which is the year that socially liberal Prime Minister Tony Blair was elected by the Kingdom’s growing middle class.

    I don’t believe Blair presented his true nature in the campaign.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  25. @Passer by

    In AK’s defense on one point: he has put a line striking out his statement that France has a higher TFR than Algeria.

    Whatever Houellebecq truly thinks about Islam or the likely future trajectory of France, it seems that France and Russia alike are at serious risk of demographic conquest, then political domination, by nonEuropean Muslims within the lifetime of the younger commenters here.

    • Replies: @Passer by
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  26. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    Economics does not predict everything, otherwise you wouldn’t be having Israel. : )

    There are also cases of countries that became more conservative even as they became richer.

    As for SA, it could be also claimed that they are doing that due to their patron – the USA, becoming increasingly liberal. The contradiction is simply becoming too much.

    On the one hand you have a government that brags about LGBT, women, minorities and democracy, and on the other hand you have head chopping, women not being able to drive cars (until recently), persecution of minorites, mass murder and humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen, and so on. Poll show that Democrats dislike SA. Biden dislikes SA.

    Rising US liberalism becomes increasingly incompatible with stone age islamism.

    Something has to give. Otherwise it is becoming too much of a hypocrisy and the whole world starts laughing at the US. So SA is being forced to change its image a bit as this is causing too much trouble for the US, especially for its soft power.

    And i think that on the issue of saudi school books there is joint western pressure to change that, they know what this is causing and how it impacts western countries too.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  27. Passer by says:
    @Radicalcenter

    In AK’s defense on one point: he has put a line striking out his statement that France has a higher TFR than Algeria.

    After he checked the comments? : )

    it seems that France and Russia alike are at serious risk of demographic conquest, then political domination, by nonEuropean Muslims within the lifetime of the younger commenters here.

    Russia is not at serious risk, but that still depends if it will open the borders for Central Asia. Muslims in France will be no more than 35 % by 2100, although the combined number of non-europeans will be more than 50 %.

    • Replies: @Radicalcenter
  28. @Passer by

    The gaff regarding TFR Algeria and France is an incredible oversight by Anatoly. He seems to think that Islamism is defeated and will slowly go away. But then again, he supported the invasion of the ancient Christian land of Nagorno-Karabakh by Turkish hordes so his stance is probably wishful thinking.

  29. @Radicalcenter

    I was wrong about Algeria, but I am correct in general. Tunisia is certainly sub-replacement level now, Morocco is not far behind (2.1-2.4). They are all falling quite fast.

    There are ~500M in the Middle East & North Africa, about the same as in the EU + UK. To get Muslim numerical dominance in Europe, you’d have to move an absolute majority of the future ME population to Europe. That isn’t happening, not even close.

    It is a possibility with Black Africans, of whom there’ll be 4B by the end of the century. In some ways, a bigger danger, since anti-immigrants will find it harder to appeal to religious “intolerance”, “LGBT hatred”, etc. as reasons not to let them in, as they can with Muslims.

    The chances of a substantially Islamic Russia this century are practically zero: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/from-russia-to-russabia/

  30. Passer by says:

    I was wrong about Algeria, but I am correct in general. Tunisia is certainly sub-replacement level now, Morocco is not far behind (2.1-2.4). They are all falling quite fast.

    Algeria is increasing actually. And btw you can have islamism even with sub replacement TFR – case in point Iran. Other places, such as Central Asia, are increasing TFR.

    And as long as muslim migrants have higher TFR than europeans (which is the case) and remain culturally muslim, sustaining that even in ultra liberal Europe, the answer is – islamism is not going anywhere. Second gen muslims in Europe are actually more religious than first gen. That is why the french (liberal!) government is triggered.

    There are ~500M in the Middle East & North Africa

    More like 580M

    To get Muslim numerical dominance in Europe, you’d have to move an absolute majority of the future ME population to Europe. That isn’t happening, not even close.

    On the contrary, europeans are dying off just like Japanese are dying off. You can’t see it because the population does not drop due to immigration. But its happening. So today’s european number is not tomorrow’s european number. That is – you are looking at probably 200 million older native western europeans by 2100. And around 200 million younger non-european western europeans. Which is not only the result of immigration, but also higher TFR and younger migrant population, which causes higher birth rates even under equal TFR.

    You can get 80 million of that 200 million just by getting 1 million migrants per year.

    It is a possibility with Black Africans, of whom there’ll be 4B by the end of the century.

    And these closer to Europe are black muslims anyway.

    In some ways, a bigger danger,

    Yes.

    The chances of a substantially Islamic Russia this century are practically zero

    Unless someone decides to use Central Asia for replacement of declining russian labor, although the probability for that is low.

  31. Muslims are experiencing the first wave of secularization, their first contact with secular modernity. As with the West, it starts as a fast process of secularization and decreasing of birthrates (see Iran). This is reversed in the long term, because birthrates are proportional to resistance to secularization. “Secularization” should be seen as a virus that hinders fertility and humanity will become resistant to it through natural selection. See the book called “Shall the religious inherit the earth?”

    If Europe had closed its doors, the native Christian groups would have become dominant over time because of their higher birthrates. Secularization would have been reversed, ending up with a strong native demography. (This is what will happen in Muslim countries or in any country that does not import populations with higher birthrates).

    But there was no time for that. If you import Muslims (who are delayed in their secularization process), you end up with Muslims playing the role of the high-birthrate religious groups and replacing the native population before this population can recover. (At least until the welfare state collapses, then native populations will become dominant again, like in the genetic story of the Roman Empire).

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    , @Levtraro
  32. Coconuts says:
    @songbird

    I will confess to having voted for the guy at every election and having stayed awake all night in 1997 when he was first elected. He was masterful at hiding his real power levels and agenda. Looking back I just think what a charismatic and skillful, but evil, politician he actually was.

  33. Yevardian says:
    @Svevlad

    Depends on how broadly ‘Arabs’ are defined, obviously. As I understand it, the various spoken Arab dialects can vary as much between each other as the Romance languages, especially in the Maghreb. Armenia is probably about the closest, as the last indigenous Christian middle-Eastern culture with a nation-state, although there’s massive brain-drain there too.
    Arabs have done very well (much better than the native Mestizo populations there) in South America for a long time, I don’t 85 reflects their natural ceiling.. they’re certainly more intelligent than the average Indian or black American with that same number. Of course the only Arab countries whose statistics aren’t massively depressed by serious instability, poverty or endemic warfare are in the Gulf, i.e, the hicks of the Islamic world.

  34. Yevardian says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    Andrew Anglin of The Daily Stormer fame has been fixated on this exact issue for about a year now, he makes a convincing argument, I suspect Anatoly still skims his site occasionally.

    • Agree: 4Dchessmaster
    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  35. Coconuts says:
    @Passer by

    And as long as muslim migrants have higher TFR than europeans (which is the case) and remain culturally muslim, sustaining that even in ultra liberal Europe…

    For one reason or another Islam enjoys a special level of status and protection within intersectionality and the Woke left, at least in Britain. It is the only religion to do so. The other week its status was underlined when the BBC’s leading young Woke feminist journalist and presenter (of Jewish background, daughter of a man who ran a small chain of brothels) asked too many awkward questions about why there were no female imams while interviewing the first woman to be appointed to the board of the Muslim Council of Britain. An SJW twitter pile-on followed, the BBC made her apologise, cut the offending interview out of the program and so on.

    Last year there were serious proposals, put forward by various senior politicians, to make Islamophobia and hate speech against ‘Muslimness’ a crime. This was only killed off when the security services intervened publicly.

  36. Coconuts says:

    Houellebecq’s latest novel (2019) is Serotonin, which centers around the gilets-jaunes and the Red-Brown workers’ revolt against globalism. Again, he presages and captures the spirit of the times very well. But will it remain much relevant even half a decade hence? The populist backlash to neoliberalism was, in large part, a consequence of globalization and China’s “reserve army of labor” coming onboard and devaluing the labor power of Western workers.

    I seem to remember that they are rioting agricultural workers as much as gilets-jaunes, there is a lot in that book about Houellebecq’s interest in contemporary French agriculture and farming. His early training was in agriculture related IT development; I heard an interesting discussion where he was talking about the number of different localised breeds of cow in France (there are about 80) and used this as a starting point for a general discussion of European bio-diversity, including among people.

    The underlying plot of the novel seemed to be about the way the narrator’s rejection of a serious relationship and fatherhood later led him to die of sadness via the use of powerful anti-depressants, as he became aware of mortality and the emptiness of his life. Sex and love are big themes in Houellebecq, his first novel Extension of the Domain of Struggle was interesting because it predicted inceldom and the nature of the future sexual marketplace but was written in the late 80s.

    I am surprised some of his writing hasn’t had him cancelled, at least in his translated form in the Anglosphere. In the early essay on Lovecraft he describes how Lovecraft’s fear of ‘the negro’ inspired the creation of the Cthulhu mythos, with the negro archetype serving as an inverted Christ figure, come to redeem the world by bestiality and vice. That essay is a spicy read in 2021.

  37. @Passer by

    I no longer think that will happen, on account of accumulating evidence there of fertility convergence: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/?p=7562

    Other places, such as Central Asia, are increasing TFR.

    In the past few years, but drastically lower than in the late USSR. The pattern of fertility is also changing, there are now very few large families being formed in Uzbekistan: https://stranger233.livejournal.com/50003.html Percentage of births that is the third or higher order birth is now actually lower than in Russia.

    What this suggests is that you’ll now see a final splurge of births and a steep decline as Uzbeks get done having their first/second kid.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    , @Passer by
  38. @Yevardian

    One could argue that the whole Arab Spring was about rearranging the MENA region to make Israelis feel more comfortable. At the same time it was supposed to hand the power in the region to the different local branches of the Muslim Brotherhood. Also it was absolutely clear that a certain number of people (the most westernized ones) would run for their lives to the West. So yes, there is an interplay going between the Islamic Brotherhood (which has Qatar as a sponsor) and the US democratic party, including its Jewish overlords. Also as I have already written a couple of times, some among the truly intelligent Jewish intellectuals (Attali comes to mind) have spoken fondly of the Andalusian model where Jews did outstandingly well under the Caliphate.

  39. @Anatoly Karlin

    Where’s the moneys from?

    Allah gives…

    Versus;

    Where’s the moneys from?

    Soros gives…

    What would you choose?

  40. Max Payne says:

    At least the first quote proves an eternal truth. Bitches be dick-crazy. (though your sense of humour could use some work)

    As for Islam and its cousin fucking, I had assumed it was a carry over from Judaism (I think Mohammeds first wife was a true-blue-Jew).

    This cousin fucking not only explains Mohammedans very low IQ (85 is way too high Karlin… come on man) but also the disgusting sickly diseases that Jews seem to have carried over for thousands of years (shit want to talk about where covid-19 started? Look for the Israeli scammer/businessman in Wuhan). Gotta keep all that money in the family!

    Both Arabs and Jews are super dumb, the difference is Jews have managed to trick the retardedly-slow (perception management) into believing they are some sort of intellectual people (remember, it’s not intellectual theft if you patent it first).

    A couple is a world, autonomous and enclosed, that moves through the larger world essentially untouched; on my own, I was full of chips and cracks……

    Someone forgot to pack a tampon in their purse….

    • LOL: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  41. @imnobody00

    Roman Empire

    There are many analogies between our times and the end of the Western Roman Empire. When Christianism has been accepted by Constantine as one among the two official religions of the Empire, Christians represented around 35% of the population. A couple of generations later Christianity become the dominant religion and after another couple of generations the Hellenic Paganism was outlawed.

  42. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    I studied a bit with Saudi guys, although I don’t know the country at all.

    My sense is certainly that they were certainly not mentally living in the European 21st century.

    Still they were not necessarily completely conservative or unsophisticated either – i.e. they are obviously people from a developed country, rather than the third world, and they have access to a lot of Western culture, and nothing surprises them about the West.

    Economics does not predict everything, otherwise you wouldn’t be having Israel. : )

    Israel might not be as much of a mismatch as it seems, when you look at the economic situation of the different groups within the country.

    Bedouin are living almost in a third world tent villages, and that correlates to their low cultural level and high fertility rate. Haredim are mostly poor, and almost living in their own country. While lot of the Arab Muslim and Mizrachi Jews are proletariat

    Secular bourgeoisie in Israel are mentally more similar to people in Western countries, as matches their economic level, and the secular Jews’ fertility is somewhere around 2.2.

    The area where there seems a strange mismatch between economics and ideology, is with the Nationalist Religious sector, which includes a lot of fanatically violent settler movement. On average, the sector have above average economically prosperous middle class lifestyles, while their politics can be very right-wing, and their fertility rate is above 4. It is an example where a messianic religion is modifying their behaved. However, this is an example of a self-selecting, almost cultic religious group, as members who do not believe the ideology are secularizing, and the remaining community is therefore selecting for true believers.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  43. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    If you look fertility rates of the Muslims in Israel.

    The Muslims all have very high fertility rates, but religiosity doesn’t correlate positively with fertility rate among them.

    Moreover, Arab nationalism would inversely correlate with Muslim fertility rates in Israel, as the anti-Arab-nationalist Bedouin have the highest fertility rates.

    On the other hand, among Jews in Israel, is a correlation – but it is most significant among the two self-selecting cult groups: Haredim and Religious Nationalists. These two are cultic communities which control most aspects of their members’ life, and which are partly self-selecting as non-believers escape the communities. That situation is like microcosm analogous to Mormons (Religious Nationalists) and Amish (Haredim) in the USA.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  44. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    …That isn’t happening, not even close.

    It has already happened in most Western European big cities, and it is irreversible. You are right that in aggregate the 500 million people EU will not become non-white. But that is not the point – the moment the new migrant groups reach 15-20% in a country they have total control over anything that matters to them: race, religion, rules, ethnicity, history, etc… And celebrating that they are ‘secular‘ is besides the point – the aggressive, liberal, Third World victim-secularism is the most annoying thing around today.

    It has happened in US already – once the non-white population reached 25-30%, the game was over – they will change things to suit them, bring their relatives and simply gradually outgrow the original white population. There will be a 400 million US in 2050, but not the way most people would understand “Americans” in 2000. The same is happening in Western Europe and could spread east.

    Houellebecq has insight, but when I read his book a few years back I thought that the religious angle was overplayed – that’s not the way this was ever going to play out. The real story are the 4 billion Africans (and India), and Houellebecq was reluctant to touch that. Race or something, it seems sacred even among the critics of the system.

  45. @Max Payne

    First wife of Mohammad was probably a Nestorian Christian. But Mohammed’s and Ali’s grandfather was born and raised a Jew by his Jewish mother in Yathrib.

  46. Rahan says:
    @Passer by

    Try living among muslims and you will change your opinion.

    Sometimes there’s a difference between “imported muslims” and “native muslims”.

    For example both in the Balkans and in the Russian Federation, there are places where the local native muslims act up (usually with kindly help from Wahhabi power centers and the US state department), but also places where stuff is completely normal. For example in Russia the Caucasus muslim regions can be tense, but the Volga muslim regions–quite chill. In the Balkans the former Yugoslav countries can be tense, but for example Bulgaria–also chill.

    Thus, it is in theory completely possible to leave in peace and understanding with muslims, but for this to happen the host country must have a) a robust overarching assimilative superstructure for all its peoples, and b) the peoples need to be natives and not “imported from overseas yesterday”.

    I.e. the opposite of GloboHomo.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  47. The result of this backwardness is that Arab polities are constantly manipulated and exploited by outside imperialists and all these political fads (nationalism, Islamism, etc.) are just flailing attempts to somehow arrest the process.

    Alternatively, all these political fads are manipulations/exploitations by outside imperialists.

  48. lauris71 says:
    @songbird

    High paternal age does not increase population-level accumulation of de-novo mutations significantly. The amount of new mutations in one 60-year generation is approximately the same as in two 30-year ones.
    It slightly decreases evolutionary pressure because these new mutations are not selected against in father’s phenotype but this should be more than compensated by increasing pressure because of polygamy.

  49. Levtraro says:
    @songbird

    Well, the proportion of poligamous families in places like the KSA and the UAE is very, very low (my impressions from repeated visits over many years). Arabs joke a lot about having one wife is more than enough, and I am talking about very wealthy Arabs. So it seems more like it that polygamy is just not having any effect on eugenics because it hasn’t been tried to any significant degree.

  50. Levtraro says:

    Far from Islam eating up the West like a Tyranid hive fleet, before moving on to India and China who are likewise incapacitated through their “contamination by Western values”, it is in fact Western liberalism that ate Islam’s face like the Squig that bit back.

    Arab leaders understand that the thing that gave an edge to Western cultures was rationalism, science and technology, so they are adopting those values for gov’t action and for teaching and the wider productive system. This is no contamination, it is a really great improvement.

    The 1,001 Nights is full of stories about Arab kings getting cucked by their wives by virile Tyrones, probably the greater restrictions on women placed by Islamic cultures is a response to their women being more flirtatious by default.

    Nah, that’t not it. Recall that in the 50s and 60s of the past century many Arab women even in the KSA wore western clothes unimpeded (MBS has shown photos of them in the streets on main cities). The single thing that turned the KSA into ultra-conservatism was the Iranian revolution, which threatened the Saudi family directly by rising the chances of a revolution from the right-wing. The solution Saud implemented to neutralize the threat (in addition to increased security) was to turn even more religious than the ayatollahs (in appearance).

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  51. Islam not only as a political ideology, but even as a cultural loyalty, is doomed.

    I’ve been saying it all the time.

  52. Levtraro says:
    @Passer by

    There are limits to secularisation in muslim environment, and Turkey’s reversal away from Europe and towards Neo-Osmanism and towards the muslim world is a good case of that. Or second/third gen muslim minorities in Europe.

    Disagree. They can secularize at least as much as christians did. In high-income Arab countries the number of secular people in high positions is significant. The gov’t usually pick the best from private and public institutions and put them in positions of responsibility, religiosity or lack of it notwithstanding.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  53. @Anatoly Karlin

    Algeria’s fertility rate is kind of interesting. It was close to replacement level at it’s lowest in the early 2000s. At that point the fertility rate had halved in less than 15 years. My guess this is related to the civil war since the fertility rate started rising after that.

    Algerian fertility has started falling again since 2017 but the fall hasn’t been fast by any means. Nonetheless I predict North African fertility rate to go below replacement level this decade. People there grow up with smartphones and social media (unlike say most of Sub-Saharan Africa) which puts them on the path of individualism.

  54. @Daniel Chieh

    ?

    In theory, but not in practice, for most population.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  55. Levtraro says:
    @imnobody00

    “Secularization” should be seen as a virus that hinders fertility and humanity will become resistant to it through natural selection.

    Your view is shortsighted. The period of exponential growth in the human population ocurred during the release of the white race from the constraints of the North-African religion, i.e. with the Renaissance, with the time when secularization could produce modern medicine, science and technology, which increased fertility rates by increasing infant survival rates as well as women’s.

    The current drop in fertility of white people in Europe is due to the fact that we have grown beyond the inflection point of our biological potential (which we passed in the 60s of the past century). Stupid and shortsighted politicians are trying to correct that importing peoples with backward cultures to reproduce, instead of adapting to lower demographic rates.

    • Replies: @imnobody00
  56. Richter says:
    @Yevardian

    South American Arabs are not very representative of the general Arab population. They’re more Christian, more Lebanese, more concentrated in professions like merchants where the dumb were less likely to survive and make it to South America.

    The Indian diaspora has done very well, in general, and better than the Arab diaspora. In some countries they’re merely well-integrated and slightly better than the native populations, and in some they’re super-elites (the richest group in America, and dominant market minorities in some sub-Saharan African countries).

  57. Coconuts says:
    @Beckow

    And celebrating that they are ‘secular‘ is besides the point – the aggressive, liberal, Third World victim-secularism is the most annoying thing around today.

    There is an unironic ‘atheist Muslim Communist’ type that can now be found in the West. There is a tendency for Islam and Muslim to be recategorised as a racial identity grouping instead of a religious one.

    There is relatively more content that touches on black Africans in his earlier books, but it was a different period. Apart from in the Lovecraft essay, there is a plot line in ‘Elementary Particles’ where one of the characters, a teacher who is sexually attracted to his teenage pupils, is being been outcompeted by a big black guy in the class, so he develops a complex about his penis size and starts writing racist pamphlets. There is a memorable line about ‘…this is how Western Civilisation ends, with them all on their knees before this baboon’. In these earlier novels blacks are openly associated with low IQ, high virility and having an extroversion and sens de la fete that white Europeans lack. This feels a relatively traditional line of commentary compared to current negrolatry trends, or the prospect of the literal demographic implosion of the West though. Houellebecq is about 65, these themes may be beyond him, on the other hand, could be the topic of the next book, or something to be published posthumously.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  58. @Bardon Kaldian

    Close enough, I suppose? Well, the Emperors often had harems in the hundreds and it was not atypical for the top ten percent(spitballing) to have a second or third wife; it was normalized enough that it was almost considered an obligation as part of wealth to have a younger concubine.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
    , @128
  59. @Daniel Chieh

    Of course you know that more than 95% of men couldn’t afford a 2nd wife….

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  60. @Bardon Kaldian

    I don’t have any real numbers off here, but off my feelings and understanding of history, I’d say its closer to a 10% cutoff than 5% cutoff. It seemed like it was common enough in the upper classes, and expected of them. De facto forms of it are still common in China at times even now, which would imply that it was quite a bit more common historically especially with income inequality.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Ho

    Example above in the last few decades, 4 wives and 17 children.

    As a bit of an aside, from my own genetic history, it led to more genetic mixing than one would have thought, as women often seemed to have been moved significant distances to be with their new husbands or masters. So one result of it may be that China had a much more homogenous population overall, with fewer distinct genetic clusters.

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
  61. Arclight says:

    I read the book a couple of years ago and enjoyed the humor in it a great deal. In the end, I think it is still topical in the sense that most of the foundational populations of the West don’t have the energy or courage to maintain their traditional societies and culture, which opens the door to successor cultures with more committed adherents to dominate. To Houellebecq it looked like Islam was a good stand in, but even if that has stalled out, the wokism imported from the US is creeping in. North America has totally surrendered to wokism, with the elites of both the US and Canada viewing their respective histories as just a procession of ghastly offenses against the morally superior natives, slaves, non-Euro immigrants, etc.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  62. @Arclight

    Islam was tragically enough, the optimistic vision.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
  63. Svevlad says: • Website
    @Passer by

    Well.

    Time to take a note from the Chinese.

    Pull a Xinjiang.

    Globally.

    It’s an overpopulated, useless area anyway. Douse it in chemical agents, nothing of value lost.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  64. @Daniel Chieh

    This man is highly atypical. And considering China’s long & turbulent history of supersession, as well biographies of her most prominent people, I doubt it.

    Heck, Confucius was a monogamist.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  65. 128 says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    They had concubines, not wives, that is an important distinction.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  66. @128

    Divorce and inheritance considerations aside, what would the differences be?

  67. 128 says:

    Actually Confucian discouraged having tons of concubines because it was seen as extravagance on the public purse.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  68. @Bardon Kaldian

    Confucius would be celibate if he could, if what we know of his marriage is true.

    And no, for starters, the imperial forbidden quarters system was common enough to have multiple sets of rankings:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Chinese_harem_system

    Concubinage was very common. The idea that its atypical is wildly strange to me, since I know people in my own guanxi family with two wives(before it was outlawed in Taiwan, so it is still grandfathered into legality). But as noted, de facto forms are still common.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concubinage_in_China

    http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat4/sub20/item108.html

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/boom-boom-in-hong-kong-s-second-wife-village-1.21334

    It was so common that Yue Fei was considered as being particularly virtuous because he maintained a consistently monogamous marriage and forbade concubines in his sons, which was seen as distinct to frugality.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yue_Fei

    I’m not sure how China’s turbulent history has anything to do with it. First, China had long periods of stability(Ming Dynasty 300 years, Han Dynasty about 400 years, Tang dynasty around 200ish years, or 400ish depending on how one wants to count it); but at any rate, instability kills off men and creates surplus women, so it would arguably increase the likelihood of polygyny.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
  69. A lot of AK wrote is simply wishful thinking put into words by someone who has no knowledge of Islam or Islamic migration to the West and the RusFed. When I first met real Islamists I was already in my early twenties. These people were fascinating, as a barbarian would be fascinating for someone who was raised in a civilized environment.

    I took the time needed to learn more about their codes and way of thinking. I visited some of their most westernized countries. I can tell with confidence and humility that according to my understanding, the only thing that will possibly save the West from being overtaken by Islam is the lack of unity among the Muslims.

    To all the people who talk of secularisation of Muslims, I have this to say: Mohammed Atta was a relatively secular and successful scholar in his field, while the Abdeslam brothers were very secular Western raised petty criminals. Same thing about the Tsarnaev brothers and countless others who lived in the West and joined ISIS, the Al Qaida or the Taliban.

    When the time came they all acted according to the code that Islam instilled into the faithful generation after generation for more than 1400 years. Thinking that the fake and gay postmodern West can do anything about it is completely deluded. If Muslims unite and if Jews come to terms with their Islamic cousins, then nothing will save the decadent European civilization.

    Houellebecq is a genius, just like George Orwell is a genius. Geniuses feel things, they have the intuitive understanding of the possible outcomes of the current trends.

    For those who lack this intuitive understanding, for the “square minded” and linear people, start by reading this:

    https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4388317

    Or watch this for brevity:

    [MORE]

    https://pikabu.ru/story/rasstrel_snayperom_talibov_blokposta_afganskoy_armii_v_provintsii_balkh_8017000

    This is Islam. And no sophistry or wishful thinking will ever change that. If they unite and come to terms with the Jewish elite you will submit because there’s nothing else you will be able to do. You are already submitting to the fake and gay Wokism, how can you possibly stand against a real militant religion…

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Flu bro
  70. @Svevlad

    Year Muslim Population worldwide.
    2030 2.2 billion
    2050 2.76 billion
    2070 3.0 billion

    In China too Uyghur and Hui populations are growing despite all the Western claims about genocide.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  71. @Bashibuzuk

    In China too Uyghur and Hui populations are growing despite all the Western claims about genocide.

    Not simply growing, the fastest growing of all 56 ethnic groups in China.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
  72. @Anatoly Karlin

    Some fair points, AK. And, for the sake of nonMuslims and for the environment, I‘m glad to hear that the TFR in those two North African Muslim countries is fairly low and dropping further.

    But I remain more pessimistic about the Islamization of Russia and more so Europe in this century.

    As to future Africans settling in Europe, well yes, if they‘re naive and foolish enough to allolw it. And aren’t a large and growing percentage of Africans Muslim? Ten million more Africans moving to Europe will necessarily include several million Muslims, no?

    I’m thinking inter alia of Nigeria and Egypt. As you know, Nigeria has almost 210 million people, more than half of whom are Muslim, and its Muslim population has an above-replacement TFR and is still booming. Egypt has about 104 million people, 85-90% of whom are Muslim, is still rapidly growing, and has a fertility rate above replacement.

    So, if a randomly selected ten million people settle in Europe from Nigeria over the next few decades, about five million will be Muslim. If a randomly selected ten million people settle in Europe from Egypt over the next few decades, about eight or nine million will be Muslim. Not good.

    Moreover, even if Europe disallowed any Muslim immigration, it will continue becoming more Muslim every year. Muslims in Europe can have a low TFR and still increase their share of the population with no immigration because nonMuslims (primarily white Europeans) consistently have an even lower TFR.

    Without immigration, the group with TFR of merely 2.0 still takes power eventually over a group with TFR of 1.5 or 1.7.

    As for Russia, you pointed out in 2009 that Chechnya constituted less than 1% of the RF’s population. Since then, the number of Chechens has grown while the number of ethnic Russians or other Slavs has declined at least slightly. So far Chechnya has grown from 1.2 million in 2009 to about 1.5 million people today in 2021:

    https://ktvz.com/news/national-world/2021/01/28/chechnya-fast-facts/

    Dagestan has grown a bit since 2010 but has a sub replacement TFR, so presumably it’s population will level off soon, i.e. stop growing.

    But overall, since your 2009 column, the total population of the RF (excluding Chechnya and Dagestan) has been stagnant. Chechnya continues to increase its percentage of the RF’s population, albeit from a very small base. Let’s see where things stand ten and twenty years from now. (Hopefully we are both alive and well enough and the site hasn’t been shut down by then.)

    Europe is “going Muslim”, and while we are in the relatively early stages, the process can and likely will accelerate as the number of nonMuslim women of childbearing age drops dramatically.

    Russia seems to have a better prognosis but seems likely to become a bit more Muslim at least. It had better be doing everything it can to increase Slavic births — or, realistically, any kind of nonMuslim European or Eurasian births. Perhaps some of these births will be to one of our children; most of them will be learning Russian, they are being taught to distrust the reflexive anti-Russian bile of our media, and who knows? 🙂

    If you see tall slightly slanty white kids from California at Artek, that could be a sign that one of our brood may meet a nice Russian and help restore the nonMuslim birth rate, LOL.

    • Replies: @Hartnell
  73. @Daniel Chieh

    instability kills off men and creates surplus women, so it would arguably increase the likelihood of polygyny.

    The polygamy in Islam was justified by the loss of male lives on the path of Jihad.

    The Prophet clearly stated that it was only permissible if someone could ensure that all his women were treated in exactly the same way. He has said himself that it was nearly impossible to do this. He therefore encouraged the monogamous marriages. Also, divorse is extremely simple and easy in traditional Islam. Why marrying four women, when you can basically change them at will ?

  74. @Levtraro

    many Arab women even in the KSA wore western clothes unimpeded (MBS has shown photos of them in the streets on main cities)

    MBS IS BOSS

    [MORE]

    MBS messed Mr Amazon up big time!

  75. Hartnell says:
    @Radicalcenter

    Im not sure about Europe “going Muslim” either. Muslim TFRs are dropping to just about replacement rate or slightly below in Middle Eastern countries. In Europe, they are at replacement level but not actually growing hugely en masse either. Honestly, I suspect at some point, the Islamic demographic will grasp the winds of individualism and secularism. I know the signs are there even in the Middle East and Iran amongst the younger generation and i suspect this will play out later on.

    To be honest, these days, I do not feel that the West will decline into oblivion but actually dominate the whole planet. There is growing voices for democracy in China. Russia has an entire youth obsessively engrossed with becoming like the West. The youth of Iran want to become more Western and abandon the strict theocracy that rules that nation.

    You know something? I would not at all be surprised if not only does the West survive but it converts the entire planet to its life style and thinking. Along with low birth rates, I could quite easily see the world uniting in a century or two under one Humanity…

    I honestly do not think you can put the rabbit back in the box now. Major divides only usually start to happen when the money stops flowing, as was the case with Trump and Brexit. Otherwise expect global unity. It is depressingly here to stay.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  76. @Passer by

    A couple things matter very much, though, besides sheer population numbers.

    First, median age. Muslims in France are much younger than Frenchmen, and the gap in median age doesn’t seem likely to get smaller. How will a nonMuslim populace more in its 40s through 80s fare in physical conflict with a Muslim populace much more in its teens through 40s? The much older population is in serious trouble — even more so without widespread private ownership of handguns by French people.

    Second, like many of my countrymen, Frenchmen appear to be increasingly deracinated, demoralized, irreligious, and childless. What sense of purpose in life, what stake in the future, do such people have? Will such Frenchmen have the courage and confidence to fight the Muslims? When Muslims reach even twenty percent of the population, will Frenchmen resist demands for sharia?

    Third, we cannot assume a steady rate of increase in the proportion of the population that is Muslim. Like adherents of other religions, Muslims get more aggressive, and nonMuslims face much greater pressure and intimidation to convert, as the Muslims grow in number. This will be especially true in schools because the youth of France is much more Muslim than the rest of the populace.

    Lastly, before Muslims get near a national majority in France, they will be a majority in Paris and Marseilles. Those could be effectively separate countries.

  77. @Levtraro

    “Renaissance, with the time when secularization could produce modern medicine, science and technology,”

    Please, the Renaissance was not a period of secularization. Christianity was completely pervasive and ubiquitous. Modern medicine does not appear in the Renaissance. Modern science starts later, during the Baroque period. Technology? What do you mean? There have always been technology but, if you refer to the Industrial Revolution, it happened much later.

    In addition to that, the fact that some intellectuals or even some elites secularized is not relevant because these are minorities. The important thing is the secularization of the masses. This started in the 60s.

    In my country (Spain), birthrates were 18 per 1000 people in 1975 when the National-Catholic regime ended. In 1993 (18 years later), after a relentless anti-natalist secularization campaign, it was about 9. It was not biology. It was culture.

    I don’t mean that secularization was the only factor: wealth and the reduction of mortality rate are important factors in the long term. But the last decades, the plummeting of birthrates is due to secularization (including “the pozz”, anti-natalist propaganda, etc.)

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk, AP, Coconuts
    • Replies: @imnobody00
    , @Levtraro
  78. @Bashibuzuk

    I remember there were reports of no provisions being made for Muslims in US immigration detention facilities and them having to eat pork, and the Jewish blue-checks on Twitter were putting out tweets in solidarity and mentioning how bad it would be if Jews had to eat pork.

    The biggest resistance to banning circumcision as well comes from the Jewish lobbies, there was huge pressure on little Iceland to not ban circumcision from the ADL who threatened to launch an anti-Iceland media blitz if Iceland didn’t relent and ditch the circumcision ban bill. Full letter to the Icelandic Parliament is attached below with a highly intriguing passage highlighted on the second page.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  79. @128

    It was indeed seen as being rather unvirtuous and extravagant, but notably, Neoconfucians also thought that businessmen and soldiers were unvirtuous by their nature of their existence: businessmen make their living by deception(knowledge gap between cost of production and resale), and soldiers make their living through violence.

    This did not prevent China from either having businessmen or militaries.

    Even in governance, China was heavily Legalist despite often preaching Confucianism. The contradictions are part and parcel of its being.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  80. @imnobody00

    See the dropping of birthrates after the end of the Catholic regime in 1975 here.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033179/fertility-rate-spain-1850-2020/

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  81. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    If no other meat is available and there is a risk of starvation, then Muslims are allowed by Shariah to eat porc or any other non-Hallal food. Circumcision is not one of the Five Pillars of Islam, an adult convert to Islam does not necessarily have to undergo circumcision.

    [MORE]

    I have often read completely ludicrous claims about Islamic traditions from the White nationalist Eurocentric perspective, among these claims some people stupidly wrote that Muslims believe in such garbage as that sewing dead Muslim’s body in a pig skin would prevent this Muslim from reaching their paradise and that dipping bullets in porc tallow would also have the same effect.

    I am forced to admit that White nationalists do not know their enemy. They are mainly writing without having taken the time to read and learn. They act as probably ancient Romans acted when they described how ignorant and superstitious the Germanic barbarians were or the Byzantine writing about how backward the Saracen were. Despite whatever these highly civilized people wrote, the barbarians ended-up conquering them.

    Our times are strangely similar to the final epoch of the decadent Western Roman Empire and the downfall of Byzantium. Except that we are placing our hopes into the Deus ex Machina of the scientific progress to save us from all ills, death included. But technology and science cannot save those who have lost their humanity from an inexorable downfall. Technology and trillions poured into America’s endless wars have not achieved a decisive victory. The medieval mindset of the Taliban and Shia militias is slowly, but surely gaining the upper hand on the most developed Western armed forces. Same about the Red Army fighting in Afghanistan in the 80ies.

    If we have no spirit or motivation to fight like men, then we are bound to surrender to those who have the spirit and the motivation. And when we look around at the craziness unfolding in the West, what real motivation can we find to kill and die for the European civilization ?

    This civilization ended-up producing the Woke plague that is slowly killing it. Can we really heal it and save it from itself ?

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  82. Levtraro says:
    @imnobody00

    I know many assume that lower fertility rates are to be blamed on secularization (mostly) and other ideological forces such as women participation in the work force, but lower fertility rates are natural (not ideological) after successful species spread and grow in size. It happens to sardines, locusts, soil worms, humans, red king crabs, bacteria in Petri dishes. All populations have in-built compensation mechanisms that reduce fertility rates after some time of expansion, and the young human species have just passed the point of maximum growth so it gonna start deaccelerating everywhere until it reaches a plateau.

    Fertility rates exploded for humans thanks to secularization, after the Dark Ages when white peoples in Europe were asfixiated with the stupid North African religion. The release of the white peoples from the schackles of religion after the Dark Ages allowed for the biological potential of the species to be unleashed.

    The Renaissance was indeed the birth of the secular white peoples: Galileo, Copernicus, Descartes, Chaucer, Milton, Kepler, Da Vinci, Francis Bacon, Shakespeare, the printing press, the Age of Discovery, humanism (“man is the measure of all things”), Paracelsus, Visalius, William Harvey, Erasmus. Church control of the medical profession decreased (Church orcs forbade dissection), paving the way for modern medicine.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @AP
    , @AaronB
  83. Levtraro says:
    @imnobody00

    You are just not seeing the big picture.

  84. @Levtraro

    Your perspective on population is religious, not scientific.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  85. AP says:
    @Levtraro

    Victim of modern secularist propaganda regurgitates modern secularist propaganda.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  86. @AP

    He is possibly a heretic, we should prepare the soft cushions for pillow torture…

    • LOL: AP
  87. AaronB says:
    @Levtraro

    That’s a good point.

    It’s obviously crazy to think population can just keep increasing indefinitely, and what goes up must come down.

    Also interesting to point out that secularization has in some sense led to the population explosion that is overburdening our world today.

    The world needs fewer people. It would be good if world population can be about halved.

    We need more wilderness and open land, and a better relationship to nature. Instead of “dominating” nature we should be refreshed and inspired by it.

    People who lament population re-balancing are the ignorant “more, more” philosophy types that has made such a mess of the world.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  88. Beckow says:
    @Coconuts

    Thanks, I see there was more to Houellebecq in the past.

    The noisy, whining, cholo-like, midwit migrants from the Third World sh..holes who prance around spouting secular and/or religious identity slogans is the most repulsive thing that West offers today. Their precise origin or their confused ideology is less important than the pathological envy enforced by stupidity. But the people who brought, cultivated and empowered them are worse. I don’t see the West overcoming this toxic combination.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk, Coconuts
  89. Passer by says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    on account of accumulating evidence there of fertility convergence

    There is no accumulating evidence of fertility convergence in Europe because many other european countries do not follow Denmark’s case, including other scandinavian countries too. Look at comprehensive data and not just data for one country.

    View post on imgur.com

    As for Uzbekistan, no source for this guy’s data. I need something more than empty talkings.

    Meanwhile Wiki data shows that birth rate is increasing in Uzbekistan, and it increased even in 2020 too.

    But i can tell you right now that he isn’t good at math. He claims that 3+ % in Uzbekistan is lower than in Russia, and yet the fact remains that TFR in Uzbekistan was nearly 2.8 in 2019 vs 1,5 for Russia. Do you know what that means? It means that there are far more childless women in Russia than in Uzbekistan. Which is why the lower 3 + % didn’t matter. This pattern gave you a TFR a 2.8 There was a decrease in the 3 + % which was compensated by a decrease in the number of childless women. In other words, Uzbekistan can continue doing that and having 2.8 TFR.

  90. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    Yep, this is interesting. Although it would be interesting to see the situation in other muslim countries. What is known, though, that in Europe and the US, muslims are both more religious and have higher TFR than the native population.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  91. Passer by says:
    @Levtraro

    They do not secularise in western countries. Second gen is often worse than the first.

    And really, “secularism” in muslim countries is a whole other beast than what is understood in the West. For example in “secular Syria” or Mubarak’s Egypt it wasn’t allowed for muslims to convert to a non-muslim religion. Also when a muslim and non-muslim marry, the children must become muslims. Proselytism by non-muslim groups was not allowed. And you saw how “secular” Turkey moved towards government islamism and Neo-Osmanism.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk, Levtraro
  92. Passer by says:
    @Rahan

    Bulgarian muslims (turks) had an insurgency during the 80s and hundreds of thousands were deported to Turkey.

    • Replies: @Rahan
  93. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    Israeli secular jews are the only rich secular population in the world at or above replacement rate. So that’s exceptional.

    The fact that israeli youth is more right wing than old, mostly married people is exceptional too. I’m not aware of anything like this anwhere else in the world.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  94. Passer by says:
    @Hartnell

    Liberalism and individualism are in many ways a function of less inbreeding in western population. This isn’t how most of the non-west is, though. It is more inbred, thus more tribal, selfish and clannish.

    In other words, good luck finding <90 % white crowd protesting Climate Change and trying to save the planet.

  95. Coconuts says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    Houellebecq wrote what looks like it should be the new anthem of the West 20+ years ago:

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  96. Passer by says:
    @Beckow

    You (Karlin) are right that in aggregate the 500 million people EU will not become non-white.

    You guys have poor math skill (Karlin included), i’m sorry to say that.

    I do not believe that Eastern Europe will be non-white. But i do believe that Western Europe will be majority non-european by the end of the century. What you are looking at is around 50 – 55 % non-european Western Europe with around 30 – 35 % muslims. But the remaining natives will be old, with median age above 50 (worse than today’s Japan) while the migrants will be young. All the big cities will minority dominated, some will be muslim majority cities too.

    You see, you look at 500 million EU and you say: no way it could become majority non-european. That would need more than 500 million other people coming in!

    It is not easy to make 500 million a minority, but it is easy to make 160 million people a minority. And this is quite probably what the number of europeans living in Western Europe by 2100 will be.

    Western Europe, that i’m talking about, is around 406 million people. 13 % of it is already non-european. That means around 53 million non european pop. and around 353 million euro pop.

    That euro population is declining just as the japanese population is declining – it is old and well below replacement rate. Not only that, but the total population of Western Europe will soon start declining too. Even the current levels of migration are not enough to stop that. Which btw means that european authorities may push for even more immigration in the future.

    So what you are looking at at 2100 is around 360 million people in Western Europe, and around 200 million non-europeans. Maybe 55 % of the western european population.

    You already have 53 million living in Western Europe, to get the rest will require less than 2 million migrants per anum for all Western Europe. Some of the migrant population will increase due to higher TFR and young age, so you need 1,5 – 1,2 million non-european migrants per year for 80 years for all of Western Europe to get to 200 million majority by 2100. Something that is happening right now.

    Here are some interesting demographic estimates on that issue.

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/18/the-incredibly-shrinking-italian-population-by-2080-italians-will-be-a-minority-in-their-own-country/

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/03/26/do-germans-still-belong-to-germany-in-the-near-future/

    https://gefira.org/en/2017/06/05/cerberus-2-0-predicts-the-disappearance-of-the-dutch-population/

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/07/27/sweden-will-remain-sweden-but-in-name/

  97. Passer by says:
    @Beckow

    You (Karlin) are right that in aggregate the 500 million people EU will not become non-white.

    You guys have poor math skill (Karlin included), i’m sorry to say that.

    I do not believe that Eastern Europe will be non-white. But i do believe that Western Europe will be majority non-european by the end of the century. What you are looking at is around 50 – 55 % non-european Western Europe with around 30 – 35 % muslims. But the remaining natives will be old, with median age above 50 (worse than today’s Japan) while the migrants will be young. All the big cities will minority dominated, some will be muslim majority cities too.

    You see, you look at 500 million EU and you say: no way it could become majority non-european. That would need more than 500 million other people coming in!

    It is not easy to make 500 million a minority, but it is easy to make 160 million people a minority. And this is quite probably what the number of europeans living in Western Europe by 2100 will be.

    Western Europe, that i’m talking about, is around 406 million people. 13 % of it is already non-european. That means around 53 million non european pop. and around 353 million euro pop.

    That euro population is declining just as the japanese population is declining – it is old and well below replacement rate. Not only that, but the total population of Western Europe will soon start declining too. Even the current levels of migration are not enough to stop that. Which btw means that european authorities may push for even more immigration in the future.

    So what you are looking at at 2100 is around 360 million people in Western Europe, and around 200 million non-europeans. Maybe 55 % of the western european population.

    You already have 53 million living in Western Europe, to get the rest will require less than 2 million migrants per anum for all Western Europe. Some of the migrant population will increase due to higher TFR and young age, so you need 1,5 – 1,2 million non-european migrants per year for 80 years for all of Western Europe to get to 200 million majority by 2100. Something that is happening right now.

    Here are some interesting demographic estimates on that issue.

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/18/the-incredibly-shrinking-italian-population-by-2080-italians-will-be-a-minority-in-their-own-country/

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/03/26/do-germans-still-belong-to-germany-in-the-near-future/

    https://gefira.org/en/2017/06/05/cerberus-2-0-predicts-the-disappearance-of-the-dutch-population/

    https://gefira.org/en/2018/07/27/sweden-will-remain-sweden-but-in-name/

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Beckow
  98. @Coconuts

    Excellent. Thanks. I was not aware of his poetry. This guy is a seer.

  99. Levtraro says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    That’s a worn out cliché, accusing the scientific person of being religious.

    There is a scientific discipline called population dynamics. It predicts the global dynamics of the human population (and others) from its birth with great accuracy. Demographers at the UN make regular predictions based on some simple dynamical systems from population dynamics like the discrete logistic map.

    Humans think too much of themselves. Galileo and Darwin put some of the hubris to rest for good but there is still a lot of hubris. The human population follows the laws of population dynamics as much as any other species. Humans are to deaccelerate in growth rate (since the 60s) for the next few centuries and the most advanced regions (the White and Asian subpopulations) have to deaccelerate faster because they are reaching compensation limits sooner than the other subpopulations.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  100. @anonymous599

    Under Erdogan’s rule the Anatolian smallvilles became real town and cities and a broader middle-class emerged in those new urban regions.

    The majority of Turks in Germany are from those Anatolian backwater-regions. That’s why Erdogan is very popular in Germany.

  101. @Yevardian

    Remember that IQ is only part of a person’s economical success. In general a low IQ prevents people from becoming successful, but high IQ doesn’t mean they will succeed in life. There are other heritable characters, for example conscientiousness and agreeableness (to name two of the Big Five).

    I would guess that Amerindians of equal IQ of Arabs will be generally less successful because of lower conscientiousness.

    Conscientiousness is independent of IQ.

  102. Levtraro says:
    @Passer by

    When those more religious moslems born in Europe and the US grow up and live a life of penury and squalor (because they will face compensation limits that the long-time natives have already internalized) they will bring their TFR to equilibrium with the long-time natives. However, there will be already too many of them, so I predict a correction via genocide. The exciting genocidal times in turn will create a short fertility boost for long-times natives.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  103. @Levtraro

    However, there will be already too many of them, so I predict a correction via genocide.

    Do you think that your grandma would approve of this ?

    Also, aren’t genocidal tactics kind of a “cheat code” to your grand population dynamics strategy ?

    I mean, we already have the coronavirus as a “cheat code”, maybe that’s “granularity ” enough and we should place our fate in nature’s hands…

    🙂

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  104. James112 says:

    “It increasingly looks like political Islamism was one of many passing Arab political fads that failed, like pan-Arab nationalism before it, and probably some kind of liberal socialism so far as the next generation is concerned.”

    I really doubt that. How reliable is the arabometer? The World Values Survey still shows very high religiosity in these countries as well as near universal rejection of homosexuality and sex before marriage.

  105. James112 says:
    @Yevardian

    Ever heard of selective immigration?

    If South American arabs were representative of arabs as a whole the arab world would be 90% christian. Almost all arabs who migrated to Latin America were christians. They were also mostly merchants, very few peasants who migrated. They are not representative, not by a long shot.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @AP
  106. AP says:
    @James112

    Yes, Shakira is an example.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
  107. @AP

    Sahakira is an example of the benefits of the Lebanese immigration to South America, just like Isabelle Adjani is an example of the benefits of North African immigration to France.

    🙂

    If we think of the more serious examples, then Carlos Slim and Carlos Menem come to mind.

  108. @Daniel Chieh

    Confucius would be celibate if he could, if what we know of his marriage is true.

  109. @Bashibuzuk

    Isabelle Adjani is an example of the benefits of North African immigration to France.

    Stop thinking constantly on sex.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Bashibuzuk
  110. @Bardon Kaldian

    Green eyes are great though

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  111. @Bardon Kaldian

    I was absolutely enamored with her and Sophie Marceau when I was young. When I see their pictures today, I can only lament the passing of time…

    (Have no idea why but what I wrote above made me want to drink a cup of wine and read the Rubaiyat.)

    🙂

    • Replies: @Bardon Kaldian
  112. @Bashibuzuk

    Former Argentine President Carlos Saul Menem was laid to rest Monday at an Islamic cemetery in the province of Buenos Aires.

    “He is going to rest in the Islamic cemetery alongside my brother, even though he adhered to the Catholic religion. But he is going to be with my brother,” said Menem’s daughter Zulemita on Sunday.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/former-argentine-president-buried-in-islamic-cemetery/2146150

    ‘I never change, I simply become more myself.’

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  113. Levtraro says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    It’s not about approving or frowning upon. It’s just an empirical prediction.

    Also, genocides can be smallish, not affecting any other long-term trends inherent to the liberal State (cf. your previous dialogue w/grandma).

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  114. @Blinky Bill

    Well, as the Islamic saying goes: “The return to [one’s] origin is preferable ” (“Inna rujuu lil asli fadhila“)

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  115. @Daniel Chieh

    [MORE]

    The Emperor cursed Lo Pan with incorporeality; although Lo Pan can be temporarily granted a decrepit body by supplication to the gods, he must marry a woman with green eyes to appease Ching Dai, the God of the East, and sacrifice her to satisfy the Emperor.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  116. @Bashibuzuk

    Although I am skeptical of many extravagant Yogananda’s claims, I think his work on Omar Khayyam should be given more attention…

    http://libgen.rs/book/index.php?md5=9B60BAD8B4137A7CBB9B708739A97A58 (click on the picture > get & download)

    • Thanks: Bashibuzuk
  117. @Daniel Chieh

    Neoconfucians also thought that businessmen and soldiers were unvirtuous by their nature of their existence: businessmen make their living by deception(knowledge gap between cost of production and resale)

    It’s astonishing the kind of dumb ideas intelligent people had about economics in the past. As if the only (or even main) reason I’m willing to pay a merchant’s asking price is because I’m ‘deceived’ about the mark-up on the item. In reality, I’d often be willing to pay that asking price even if the mark-up were posted right next to the price. (Especially if it’s the best deal going.)

    Needless to say, all economic thinkers of the distant past (at least I’ve never heard of any exceptions) were ignorant of the concept of ‘consumer surplus’ – the difference between the maximum you would have paid for something, and the price you actually had to pay. If the maximum I were willing to pay for, say, a given set of golf clubs was $2000 but I could get that set for $500, I would feel like I got it for a song even if the mark-up on it was 500%. It’s a great shame economists haven’t managed to popularize this (fairly simple) concept as much as they have supply and demand.

  118. Levtraro says:
    @AaronB

    The world needs fewer people. It would be good if world population can be about halved

    If you manage to cut human population by half as you desire, you will return humans to the situation in the 60s of the past century, precisely when human population growth rate was maximum. So total human biomass will return to current levels quickly, and perhaps things will become substantially worse if impregnated females and their offspring consume more today than in the 60s. So you might really want to shrink human biomass to a size higher than half of today’s biomass, so as to reduce total biomas while also maintaining a state of deacceleration.

    • Replies: @AaronB
  119. @Bashibuzuk

    This is Islam. And no sophistry or wishful thinking will ever change that. If they unite and come to terms with the Jewish elite you will submit because there’s nothing else you will be able to do. You are already submitting to the fake and gay Wokism, how can you possibly stand against a real militant religion…

    I think you are exaggerating this threat. Obviously all “muslims” aren’t that extreme. We really need statistics on this, not scary anecdotes about Mohammed Atta. Secondly, if they’re so determined that less militant people have no hope of withstanding them, then how is they’ve only come to power in a couple of muslim countries (and are wavering even there)? Why haven’t they taken power right across the muslim world?

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    , @AaronB
  120. @Blinky Bill

    Isabelle Adjani has pers eyes passing from blue to green through gray. Her eyes are probably as changing as her soul was when she was young.

    If a green eyed French actress of immigrant ancestry is needed, then Mylène Jampanoï does certainly qualify.

    [MORE]

    And she’s not shy about her charms. Probably one of the sexiest French actresses nowadays. Another heartthrob of mine.

    If you didn’t watch Valley of Flowers by Pan Nalin, give it a try.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  121. @silviosilver

    Why haven’t they taken power right across the muslim world?

    Because they are opposed by other Muslims. As I wrote in one of my comments above, what will probably save the West is the disunity among the Faithful and the opposition of the world Jewry to the Islamic project. But if these two obstacles are removed, then the West is probably lost.

  122. Beckow says:
    @Passer by

    I like math, if I am bad in it, I will try harder :)…in my defense, my timeframe (and AK’s) was shorter. By 2100 all kinds of things could happen. Linear projections are risky.

    I like your analysis, but there are 2-3 assumptions I want to address:
    – 2 million or so annual migrants from the Third World could change: it is a political decision and when water reaches people’s noses they tend to wake up and act. (Or not.)

    – EU native TFR is based on a dysfunctional generation of loser liberals – people who were born just to create some garbage, talk nonsense, and then disappear into the abyss of nothingness that they so fear all their lives. There is another Europe of people with families and by definition the self-selection of those traits is passing on a biological desire for children – that suggests that the family oriented Europeans will grow as a proportion of population, thus higher future TFR.

    – Populations always mix and assimilate: a certain % of the migrants will gradually become indistinguishable from the native Europeans. This is especially true about the more viable groups, e.g. Lebanese in France, many South Americans in Spain, etc…but also among many others.

    The real issue are the 4 billion surplus Sub-saharan Africans, and tens of millions of Indian, Middle Eastern, and mestizo low-class people who are desperate to move to Europe (and US). If the elites continue bringing them in, the game is over, there are way too many of them and they can never be assimilated.

    By the way, if the elite morons think that their progeny will avoid this fate and hide away, they are fools. In 2-3 generation they will live in the same society and their descendants will not escape the dysfunctions: economic collapse and cholo-like short fat people with flat heads and small brains – it will come for them too. But elites tend to be fools, look at history, so we might be doomed. I still think Eastern Europe can be preserved.

  123. @AP

    Shakira is only half lebanese, her mother is a colombian mestizo.

    • Replies: @AP
  124. @Levtraro

    The concept of a liberal genocide appeals to my esthetics, it kinda feels appropriate. Progress driven people are notoriously good at it, so it might certainly work.

    But if you need to interfere in population dynamics in such a drastic manner, then perhaps the changes in TFR that you describe are not very natural. They would be ideologically impacted and socially selected for. I think we should trust nature more.

    🙂

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  125. @Bashibuzuk

    I must apologize, my comments are often cryptic in nature. It was a reference to 1980s American Pop culture and a Hollywood Cult classic. The greatest ever film made in US about Chinese culture! 😂😂😂😂

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Trouble_in_Little_China

    [MORE]

    The lady in question is Suzee Pai, a former actress and model and was the Penthouse Pet of the Month in January 1981. She was in said film about a Chinese woman with green eyes.

    I’m familiar with the work of Mylène Jampanoï and her ancestry, though I’ve not seen Valley of Flowers by Pan Nali.

    My absolute favourite actress is Julia Ormond despite not been of French ancestry as I had always presumed.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  126. @Blinky Bill

    I usually appreciate your comments and do not find them cryptic at all. And Julia Ormond is certainly a beautiful lady.

    🙂

  127. AaronB says:
    @Levtraro

    Good point.

    But if the 60s was still on the “upward arc” and thus not any kind of “stable point”, the “downward arc” we are now experiencing may take the population even lower than the 60s.

    Instead of the population tending toward a “stable point”, it may overshoot and undershoot in a dynamic process that never reaches stasis.

    Or perhaps stable points are reached – but don’t last very long.

    I am now in a vast, open, natural landscape where you can see for miles and there are almost no humans. It’s remarkable how being in such an environment makes the passions, obsessions, grievances, and ambitions of the everyday human world seem so petty.

    I am convinced three fourths of the distress and mental illness so characteristic of the modern world – and so evident on this website – are caused by population pressure and lack of access to the natural world.

    Even in London in the 18th century, one of the largest metropolises in the world, one could walk to the countryside in an hour or two.

    The human population needs to shrink – and drastically. And it seems like nature agrees. If the planet is an organism, it’s obviously initiating some sort of immune mechanism.

    And since there is zero correlation between population size and creativity and inventiveness (one could even perhaps establish an opposite correlation), shrinking population has no implication for progress. It might help it.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  128. AaronB says:
    @silviosilver

    Being militant has an “optimum point” like everything else. Extreme militant and extreme aggression and violence are self-defeating in the end.

    Israel is significantly less militant, less violent and aggressive, than the Arabs it faces – and for this very reason it has no problem defeating them.

    When you are too aggressive, you can’t “shut it off”, and you create sociieties with harsh hierarchies and lots of infighting and squabbling. Moreover, extreme aggression interferes with the ability to make calm, rational choices and craft strategy. Extreme aggression betrays lack of self confidence and inner weakness in the end.

    In the tryouts for the elite units in the Israeli Army, excessive aggression is deliberately weeded out, and the most important quality is the ability to work within a team, which requires a high level of agreeableness. A weaker candidate who works well within a team is preferred to a stronger candidate who is overly militant and aggressive.

    There are videos of Islamists suicide charging American Marine positions and being calmly decimated by the American forces who probably barely broke a sweat and then went back to playing pool. No doubt such foolhardiness betrays greater militantism, but is obviously self defeating.

    There are also videos of American soldiers calmly engaging and defeating much larger Islamist forces in infantry combat from groups who cultivated an image of extreme violence and ferocity (cutting off heads, dressing in black and wearing masks, kidnapping and terroruzibg the civilian popukation etc).

    Aristotle long ago described courage as the mean between foolhardiness and cowardice. Societies that achieve the correct balance succeed. The rest go into the dustbin of history.

    Show me the side that tries to project excessive aggression and cruelty and fearsomeness, and I will show you the losing side that feels insecure.

    Bashibuzuk suffers from feelings of innate inferiority and loserdom and can’t help indulging in fantasies of being dominated by hyper-masculine Muslims and in his fervid imagination – Jews.

    Beware of paying too much attention to people who are “innate losers” – they bring everyone down with them.

    Fetishizing excessive force is always a sign of inner insecurity.

  129. AP says:
    @Baphomet66

    I think her mother is Spanish, not a Mestiza. Also Salam Hayek – Lebanese father, Spanish-Mexican mother. Lebanese tend to marry into the European upper classes in Latin America.

  130. @Yevardian

    Maybe a little off topic, but you should not use the term “Middle Eastern” at all. Especially when describing Armenians, as it just means “like the Arabs” in the mind of most of the world. It is an antiquated British geopolitical term. West Asian is the appropriate term, since Chechens and Georgians are a part of West Asia and the Egyptians and Moroccans are not.

  131. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    israeli youth is more right wing

    Although note that “right-wing” is not constant across countries. Right-wing in Israel has many “Woke” aspects. In Israel, right wing is itself more a multiracial coalition than the left wing, and the rightist ideologies support multiracialism (although not multireligion).

    Likud decriminalized cannabis, and has an LGBT caucus. Likud politicians march at the front of LGBT gay pride rallies. The “anti-white coalition” (i.e. anti-Ashkenazi coalition) in Israel is the Likud party – and many of the famous Mizrachi celebrities are supporting it: look at the Mizrachi marketing style of the Likud party campaigns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvSSAuF9kMk.

    Israel is also becoming less militarist with each generation, while in the older liberal Israel there was more militarism.

    So what’s very right wing about the non-Haredi, non-Arab youth in Israel? In Israel it is clear that there is a very high level of nationalism, and that the nationalism may be expanding among the youth to even higher levels.

    Such expanding nationalism among the youth does exist in some countries in addition to Israel, as there are other examples of increasingly nationalist youth: e.g. in Ukraine, Belarus (where it is orientated against the government), Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

    In Ukraine or Georgia, the rise of nationalism among the youth is result of the nationalist education system of the 1990s-2000s. (In Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the rise of nationalism is associated with geopolitical conflicts.)

    With Israel, there isn’t such a simple explanation as the education system. It can perhaps be related to trauma of the Second Intifada where weekly or daily bombings penetrated into Israeli cities, and then rocket attacks, and “knife intifada” of more recent years.

    • Thanks: Passer by
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Passer by
  132. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    look at the Mizrachi marketing style of the Likud party campaigns https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvSSAuF9kMk.

    The verse of Likud’s campaign song in 2019, was “Yalla Putin, Yalla Trump”.

    At 0:33 in the video. Likud tries to associate Netanyahu with the type of strong leaders that impresses “low IQ” voters in Israel.

  133. Dmitry says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    I feel like she was a bit of a symptom of the end of the cultural fertility in the French cinema during the 1970s-1980s – as their films become and more more like glossy fashion magazines, with beautiful models on the cover, selling expensive dresses and perfumes.

    We were talking a few weeks ago about why films Kieslowski made in France in the 1990s seem kitsch compared to his 1980s films in Poland. One of the main reasons for the kitsch effect, in my opinion, is that he has to hire beautiful French actresses like Irene Jacob, instead of the normal Polish actresses he used before.

    Irene Jacob is almost unnaturally beautiful, and makes parts of his films seem like glamorous fashion shoots, and some of the realism element in his Polish films, with normal looking Polish actresses, is lost.

    But the purest example I have seen of souless, aestheticist French cinema of the 1980s, that seems more like glamour photography, is Luc Besson filming Isabelle Adjani.

    It was an example of how in the 1970s-1980s, some of the French cinema is losing the cultural fertility of the previous decades, and the actresses become more and more beautiful, as the film industry seemed to be undergoing a conversion into glossy advertising. Of the course, the French are the best in world at marketing designer clothes and glamour, and it’s almost too easy for them to fall back onto it.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  134. Flu bro says:

    I blame Trump. He put pressure on MBS to liberalize, and now Saudi Arabia has gone full globohomo.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  135. Flu bro says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    Moslims are, pound for pound, the weakest religious group in the world. They are pathetic fighters and there is really no way they will ever conquer anything except for other pathetic moslims.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  136. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    And yet the Likud Government is constantly sabotaging LGBT rights and fighting with the High Court

    https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/179963-180722-thousands-to-protest-strike-over-surrogacy-law-excluding-gay-men

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-despite-promise-to-top-court-israel-still-discriminates-on-gay-adoption-1.7339552

    In Belarus btw is looks more like liberal EU cargo cult than nationalism. That is, i suspect that nationalists are not the majority of protesters.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  137. @Dmitry

    But the purest example I have seen of souless, aestheticist French cinema of the 1980s, that seems more like glamour photography, is Luc Besson filming Isabelle Adjani.

    I remember that movie, watched it once. But to be fair, the most marking French film of the 80ies is probably “Tchao pantin.”, a kind of nouveau noir movie with the French comic Coluche, who was the working class French favorite. I have never understood the humour of Coluche, you probably have to be born into it, but he played his role in this trashy movie rather well.

    BTW, it was possibly the first French movie which introduced Maghrebi immigrant criminals and hinted at problems with immigration.

    Nothing glamorous about this movie, but it was profoundly French.

    https://www.google.com/search?gs_ssp=eJzj4tTP1Tcwr8ityDNg9OIpSc5IzFcoSMwrycwDAGUFCFE&q=tchao+pantin&oq=tchao&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j46l2j0.8340j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

    I think it attempted to depict early 80ies Paris, like Taxi Driver depicted the mid-70ies New York.

    I guess it would be impossible to produce a similar movie today because it was not at all politically correct.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  138. Rahan says:
    @Passer by

    Bulgarian muslims (turks) had an insurgency during the 80s and hundreds of thousands were deported to Turkey.

    I’m told that today those who remain there (8% of the population? 10%?) are law-abiding, hard-working, mostly secular, patriotic chaps.

    But yes, perhaps it did take a deportation to get rid of the potential trouble-makers, horrendous as that may sound.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  139. @Levtraro

    No, this is simply inaccurate. Your understanding of population dynamics is inaccurate.

    Predators follow the Lotka–Volterra equations of cyclic rise and fall, rather than some form of exact equilibrium point.

    https://serc.carleton.edu/details/images/52117.html

    You may be trying to describe a sigmoid growth curve which has exponential growth reaching a carrying capacity, but that’s not flat but rather an equilibrium with cycles as well, and the carrying capacity is due to specific limiting factors rather than some sort of mystic “compensation method” which I can only imagine as some version of Lysenkoism complete with vital forces and other magical rambles disguised as science.

    One could certainly imagine humans with a different population point, for example, with Mr. Karlin’s artificial wombs being prolific.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/paper-review-artificial-wombs/

    People who object(or support) social changes are indicating them as a limiting factors, and finally even within the limiting factors, intraspecies competition allows certain populations to expand at the cost of others and of course this is observed in any number of species, and often is the cause of extinctions.

    So yes, your belief is a kind of religion. Please review your priors, as the logic is so whacked that it almost can’t be engaged with.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Levtraro
  140. @AP

    I feel tragically deprived that melanf has not yet engaged himself into this conversation, being that it involved attractive women.

  141. @Daniel Chieh

    Worth linking to here as well in regards to carrying capacity of Earth as per our kind host:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/max-world-population-200-billion/

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/world-population/

    So here’s a very simple series of land/food calculations:

    * The average person needs around 2,000 calories per day, implying 730,500 calories every 365.25 days.

    * About 11.6% of the world’s land surface of 15,749,300 square kilometers is arable land, translating into 3,891,730,777 acres.

    * Corn yields 15,000,o00 calories per square acre.

    Carrying capacity in a World of Corn would be 79,912,336,273 (80 billion people).

    This order of magnitude is remarkably consistent across different methods. For instance, on this Reddit thread, similar calculations for other high yield crop varieties and high yield farming methods produced estimates of 206 billion and 247 billion, respectively.

    Moreover, in the aforementioned meta-analysis of 94 estimates, a multivariate regression analysis on global carrying capacity estimates in which land/food was the limiting factor produced conservative and progressive estimates of 33 billion and 103 billion, respectively.

  142. Levtraro says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    It is no interference, like I said, it is just a prediction of how things will work out under population dynamics. Fractions of populations dying out suddenly are part of Nature’s blind and non-teleological devices. Current immigration of brown and black people to Europe and the USA will lead, naturally, to conflict and internal warfare down the road, to the detriment of the colored newcomers.

    And it is not drastic. It will be a minor thing compared to segregation governance, the policy that the liberal State will apply on the long-times natives.

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  143. Levtraro says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Thanks for your interesting and well informed reply, for trying to explain to me why you erroneously think I am religious because of my certitude in natural laws explaining lots of things that humans mis-interpret as ideologically-driven.

    However, you fail becase you are just quoting a very special case of limit cycles, failing to note the vast majority of cases, including the human stock, where such limit cycles are not observed, but rather, a stable point is achieved and mantained for a very long time (one stable equilibrium, rather one limit cycle). See for instance this paper in Nature:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1857-0

    Authors write in the Abstract: “However, it remains an open question for how long cyclic dynamics can be self-sustained in real communities. Field observations have been restricted to a few cycle periods5,6,7,8 and experimental studies indicate that oscillations may be short-lived without external stabilizing factors9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19.”

    The term “compensation” has nothing to do with Lisenkoism. Do a search for “population dynamics compensation” and you will find a lot of sources. In short, compensation is the process by which populations suffer checks on growth because of their biological potential and environmental forces. Compensation kicks in when populations are too big. Related terms are “overcompensation” and “depensation”.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  144. @Flu bro

    MBS is clearly a modernizing reformist of his own volition and probably a crypto-atheist.

    • Agree: Levtraro
  145. @Bashibuzuk

    BTW, it was possibly the first French movie which introduced Maghrebi immigrant criminals and hinted at problems with immigration.

    I recall watching a French film made in the mid-70s about Parisian (I think) summer vacationers on the beaches of southern France. There is some misunderstanding with some Algerian immigrants and things escalate and the French band together and kill one of the Algerians and the film then goes on to portray the French as “racists” blah blah – that’s how I recall it anyway, but I could very easily have the details wrong here.

    Do you have any idea of the film I’m talking about? I’d like to watch it again. If it helps to jog your memory, I remember one scene near the beginning, a couple or more of the main characters are in a cafe and a guy (a busker, I think) walks in off the street and asks to use the toilet. The proprietor tells him he has to buy something, but the guy says no, no, you have to let me, it’s the law. (I remember this scene because I thought at the time, yes, that sounds very much like the kind of law the French would pass.)

  146. @Levtraro

    Did you finish reading the abstract you linked?

    Our findings empirically demonstrate the potential for infinite persistence of predator and prey populations in a cyclic dynamic regime that shows resilience in the presence of stochastic events.

    And this is also incorrect for humans, which obviously have been able to alter the natural forces such as nutritional availability or viable habitat. Depending on technology, humans both gain and lose limits.

    http://people.eku.edu/ritchisong/RITCHISO/envscinotes3.html

    Your “certitude” is necessarily limited by actual concrete limits and forces, all which may be altered by energetic availability depending on technology and furthermore altered by competition within populations of a species, so its more accurate to say that you have “faith,” which is basically religious in composition.

    All of this should be self-evident as an intelligent, cogent person. The idea that “Nature” blindly has some sort of overall compensatory mechanism without even considering the math of it is basically a kind of Lysenkoistic scientific magic.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  147. Levtraro says:
    @AaronB

    Instead of the population tending toward a “stable point”, it may overshoot and undershoot in a dynamic process that never reaches stasis.

    Or perhaps stable points are reached – but don’t last very long.

    That happens to other types of populations, populations of animals with short life, with just a few cohorts, with separate generations (think of cicadas, extreme case with a 13 yr lapse between generations), and in other very special cases like the case cited by Daniel Chieh. The human stock on the other hand has a lot of population inertia which makes their population dynamics very smooth (and predictable).

    A great Aussie mathematician died last year, his name was Robert M. May. I learned a lot from him. He clarified many of these issues with his research on discrete nonlinear systems. He single-handedly created a new field for which we are still trying to work out its implications in many areas of application.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @AaronB
  148. @Levtraro

    Although an atheist since age 11, May stated that religion may help society deal with climate change. While referring to what he believed to be a rigid structure of fundamentalist religion, he stated that the co-operational aspects of non-fundamentalist religion may in fact help with climate change. When asked if religious leaders should be doing more to persuade people to combat climate change, he stated that it was absolutely necessary.

    Ah, I see that you have your prophet who also wishes to combat climate change with literal religion.

    This should not happen, lest Tropical Hyperborea be threatened.

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/tropical-hyperborea-cometh/

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
  149. AaronB says:
    @Levtraro

    Intetesting, thanks.

    Honestly, I’d prefer it if humanity reached a stable population somewhere significantly below what it is now.

    One thing is obvious – population growth cannot continue indefinitely and it is clearly a healthy natural process that it is declining. But sometimes the obvious is hard to see.

    A “steady state” economy would also obviously be in humanity’s interest to achieve, but we are nowhere near mature enough as a species to seriously contemplate this.

    For all the Enlightenment talk of humanity taking charge of its destiny, we are as ever, animals driven by blind passion and insatiable greed.

    But I am sure natural processes will take care of the situation – whether humanity survives is another question. Lovelock’s Gaia theory proposes the Earth is an organism – humans cannot destroy it, but they may destroy the environment they need to survive.

    Which is fine – other species will arise.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  150. @Rahan

    I don’t know that “patriotic” is quite the right word for them, but my impression is that they don’t have a reputation as a nuisance minority (except in the minds of hardcore nationalists).

    I have no idea of what “insurgency” passer by is thinking of. It sounds like something he just pulled out of his ass. The communist authorities undertook a massive Bulgarisation drive beginning in the mid-1980s, forcing Turks to adopt Bulgarian names and clamping down on Islamic worship. Not surprisingly, not all Turks took this sitting down and some attempted to fight back. Maybe this is the “insurgency” he is referring to, though no one in his right mind could accuse the Turks of having started it.

  151. @Levtraro

    dying out suddenly

    It is not natural if people are manipulated to kill each other. When the Wendat and the Mohawk killed each other under European patronage with the imported guns, it had nothing to do with their ecosystems carrying capacity and population dynamics and everything to do with the fur trade control by competing European commercial interests, empires competing for territory control and ongoing colonisation.

    When Western middle class is brainwashed into first tolerating a massive immigration, and then worked up to aggressively expelling or destroying the imported alien masses, it will also have nothing to do with population dynamics and everything to do with the global elite deciding that it is time to cull the masses and control their numbers forever to avoid the many potential negative impacts of technological advances and the irreversible social and ecological change that it might induce.

    I understand why they would want to keep their control on human development, some of their reasons are possibly not just self-serving, but we – humans- have substituted ourselves for nature a long time ago. It started in the Neolithic and will continue until the humanity dies out, but nature is not the main driver here.

    Power dynamics are the main driver. This and elite clans wishing to perpetuate their dominant position.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  152. @Daniel Chieh

    Climate change is real, climate has always fluctuated. Anthropogenic global warming is a cult and the global movement to oppose global warming is a manipulative social psy op.

  153. 128 says:

    Probably the Earth could support 1000 billion is everybody is content to take their nutrition in pill form always and live in a 5 by 8 cell with no windows.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
  154. @128

    Space for housing is a minor issue. The problem is agricultural land. How much food can be produced? About half the land that can be used for agriculture is already used for agriculture. The potential to expand food production is far from unlimited. People would have to eat more energy efficient food.

    People will never be able to live of nutrition pills because they can’t contain enough energy. But powder food works.

    Electricity production would obviously be a big issue. I don’t know how far you’d get by filling Sahara and Australia with solar cells but that’s probably a good plan.

  155. Levtraro says:
    @Bashibuzuk

    When Western middle class is brainwashed into first tolerating a massive immigration, and then worked up to aggressively expelling or destroying the imported alien masses, …

    Massive immigration happened because political and business bosses desired it, but the elimination of immigrants will happen DESPITE the wishes of those bosses.

    Power dynamics are the main driver. This and elite clans wishing to perpetuate their dominant position.

    Like in every other social mammal species.

  156. Levtraro says:
    @AaronB

    It gonna be extremely difficult to reach a stable state at a human population size below the current size. Even WWII didn’t cause anything larger than a minor blip in the march towards the inflection point that was passed during the 60s. Perhaps WWIII, as it will be fought with nuclear weapons, will reset the biological process that started rolling ~500 thousand years ago, leading to a smaller asymptotic human population size, but I don’t think that is what you want, because the biosphere itself will be affected, reducing carrying capacity for a long time (in human timescales).

    A steady state economy is another matter entirely. That can be achieved.

    Yes, time on this planet as a species is very limited, and no matter what you do, even if you explode all your nuclear weapons simultaneously in a radiative fest extravaganza, that will just cause a temporary setback for life on parts of the biosphere. The space rock that wiped out dinos 65 million yr ago brought inmensely more destructive power than all nuclear weapons combined and yet the biosphere recovered quickly and then it sprouted out numerous new species in an orgy of copulations and natural selection.

    • Replies: @AaronB
    , @Vaterland
  157. Levtraro says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    You seem to be trying to offend me or ellicit some sort of adversarial response, but you would need to be a lot stupider to do that.

    The idea that “Nature” blindly has some sort of overall compensatory mechanism without even considering the math of it is basically a kind of Lysenkoistic scientific magic.

    Here you came close. Yes, nature has blind compensatory mechanisms for populations whose math has been worked out, rather extensively and in depth. Just do a search for “population dynamics compensation” and everything will be illuminated.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  158. AaronB says:
    @Levtraro

    Yes, time on this planet as a species is very limited, and no matter what you do, even if you explode all your nuclear weapons simultaneously in a radiative fest extravaganza, that will just cause a temporary setback for life on parts of the biosphere. The space rock that wiped out dinos 65 million yr ago brought inmensely more destructive power than all nuclear weapons combined and yet the biosphere recovered quickly and then it sprouted out numerous new species in an orgy of copulations and natural selection.

    Good point.

    Mankind cannot destroy this planet or life. For all our narcissistic arrogance, we are in the end a puny species.

    But mankind can destroy the environment needed for it to flourish. And may well be doing so with its ideology of infinite growth.

    But who knows what other species, perhaps not yet existing, will initiate a line of development that culminates in a state of consciousness as high as man without our drawbacks?

    If one believes – as I do – that all of existence is the expression of one energy and everything is indisdolubly interconnected, then death – of an individual or a species – and the rise of a new one is merely that energy rearranging itself. I exist as much in that squirrel as I do in my human skin.

    But we have left the realm of biology and perhaps I am getting to wooly headed here 🙂

  159. @Levtraro

    Offense is taken, not given, though I find your conclusions pretty much in total error, I find your faith a combination of touching and entertaining. You have not addressed any meaningful points that I’ve brought up, and seem wary of addressing any actual inflection points I’ve brought up in history or nature, so I’ll leave you to your religion though I’ll share a few links for your edification:

    https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-past-is-another-country.html
    Examples of human population replacement: no natural compensation for the eradication of an entire host population for an invasive population.

    https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/dynamics-of-predation-13229468/
    This is not “rare” or “unusual” but in fact the common pattern of predator-prey interaction

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.7185
    When predators are removed, even more extreme boom-bust cycles happen

    And I echo my earlier link on availability of energy to human civilization, though that is essentially self-evident: from human to animal ultimately to fossil, etc. As you should note in your own reading, all of this affects the carrying capacity. To indicate that we absolutely know all future developments that can continue to affect the human carrying capacity is silly, though you are certainly allowed to have faith in your particular brand of shamanism.

  160. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    The protests against Netanyahu are because he hasn’t extended the possibility of commercial surrogacy to LGBT as he had promised:

    However, in (most? all??) Western Europe, they do not allow commercial surrogacy, let alone to single fathers or same-sex couples.

    So, you can see how “Woke”, the politics is in Israel on topics like LGBT – i.e. that the “right-wing” Prime Minister claimed to support policies, which are not passed in Western Europe, and suffers mass protests when he delayed following his liberal words with actions.

    THE SURROGACY LAW, amended in 2018, allows married heterosexual couples and single women to have children through surrogacy, but not single fathers or same-sex couples. That same year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would support a bill to allow same-sex couples to have children through surrogacy, but so far has failed to do so.

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/times-up-government-nearing-high-court-deadline-for-surrogacy-equality-660040

    On the cannabis, Likud is also more liberal than the governments of some Western European countries like United Kingdom.

    The first bill, submitted by MK Sharren Haskel (Likud), would decriminalize the possession of up to 50 grams of marijuana while fully legalizing the possession and personal consumption of up to 15 grams by individuals above the age of 21.

    A separate bill sponsored by MK Ram Shefa (Blue and White) calls to regulate the cannabis market for self-consumption and fully legalize the personal consumption of cannabis by individuals above the age of 21, in accordance with the terms specified in the bill.

    https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/News/PressReleases/Pages/press24620f.aspx

    So right-wing, Likud is still quite accurately to its name – as a consolitation of nationalists and liberals. It’s not like young people in Israel are completely outside of Western trends in all the socially liberal ways, if they vote for Likud. That said, I do think young Israelis are culturally significantly different from young people living in the West, including having stronger nationalism, and heavier socialization.

    Belarus btw is looks more like liberal EU cargo cult than nationalism

    The most popular type of young peoples’ nationalism in Belarus is orientated more towards Poland and against Russia, and indeed they are partly funded by Poland and Visegrad, and they want to join the EU.

    If Lukashenko wants to appease those type of polonophile nationalists, he should probably build informal alliance with Poland and Visegrad, as you can see nationalist groups are adding EU flags and hosted by Poland; Poland is developing that softpower projection into Belarus without apparently Lukashenko being able to prevent it.

  161. Vaterland says:
    @Passer by

    The reply guy “well akcually…” to both you and Karlin is basically: “Yes, and?” We all knew for years that the real demographic threat is not North Africa or the Middle East, but SS-Africa combined with a suicidal ideology in occupied and colonized Europe. “Islamo-Fascism” was always Zionist bait since Charles Krauthammer invented the term, also not exactly a hot take. And it never really took off in Evropa.

    Islam has no power in Europe which is not given to them by Jews and upper middle class leftoid “baizuo”. Jews have power. A lot. The post WW 2 globalist world order has systemic power. And Islam has, intentionally and from the beginning, served the same purpose as the black civil rights movement in America. With the same questionable success. But distracting from (((them))) would not have worked with, let’s say, Japanese or Korean immigrants.

    Furthermore, I have had one violent interaction with a gang of multiculti “tanned German” yahoos, among which one was a Turk, and about two to three with Poles. Which were much more dangerous, too. I have never had problems with Turks in general. On the contrary actually. And when in my tradcath phase I was sporting the classical Christian big beard style, I was greeted by them always with “salam aleikum!” Which I found quite nice. Better than atheist bug chasers anyway.

    The real Nafri baby boom was in the 70s to early 80s. Prof. Gunnar Heinsohn pointed out years ago that the peak of the influx would ebb down around 2020-2025. And I finally came to realize that the “rapefugees” we are dealing with are basically Muslim Millennials. Draft dodgers and porn consuming, ungrateful soyboys who are pissed they have no access to Starbucks. And it was the Ziotard media alone which had fever fantasies of them as a trained insurgency cohort which would slit our throats at night and install the caliphate. Plus the projecting cuck fantasies of Ameritards who want to distract from their own TQ (Tyrone Question).

    Street crime is of course really bad among Nafris, but on the other hand mostly contained to their own ranks and quarters. The only Islamists which ever creeped me out were Chechens. The war veteran from the Chechen war I met in Leningrad had some stories to tell! 10/10 based and red pilled guy, too. Would build Nazbol Gang with. Which shows again: IF you want to do it right, including Jihad, DO IT LIKE A WHITE MAN! On the other hand the “moderate Islamist” Chechen Salafist from Gelsenkirchen was pretty chill. – If you want to have a bro to discuss the Jews with…

    For real I am not worried about Islam in Germany. At all. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.HIGHLIGHT-german-muslims-shocking-response-to-the-holocaust-1.9500759

    Don’t worry about muh Islam. Worry about SS-Africa and the megalomania of the international libtard. They make a great candidate for the great filter.

  162. Vaterland says:
    @Levtraro

    Even WWII didn’t cause anything larger than a minor blip in the march towards the inflection point that was passed during the 60s.

    I’M SORRY! WE TRIED!!!

    But as a certain someone said: “Their efforts were commendable…”

    • LOL: Levtraro
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