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HABBENING: US Elections 2020
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The last election I watched with a Russian friend at the London School of Economics student room in 2016. The cope and seethe amongst those rootless cosmopolitans was out of this world, as the only Trump supporters in the room it was like being the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg.

I don’t expect to see a repeat of such scenes this time round. If Trump manages to clinch the south (FL-NC, probably AZ), as I expect him to, then the interest will shift over to the slow counting Rust Belt swing states. So, we probably can’t expect to see scenes of “literally shaking” SJWs or seething MAGA chuds tonight. But I suppose we’ll see soon enough.

***

Trump Endorsement

I am obviously much less personally invested in American political outcomes than when I lived in the US from the late 2000s to 2016. I don’t really get the people who are super enthusiastic about either candidate (well, apart from the TDS/PDS/Russiagate people, but I find them to be an alien species in general). Biden and Harris are neolib Establishment, more regressive than HRC in 2012, whose concessions to the “Chapo” wing of the coalition are going to be predominantly symbolic. Trump’s sovereigntist rhetoric was stymied not just by the machinations of the Deep State, but by his own personal laziness and ineffectiveness. I believe that either candidate as President will face massive governance challenges, as polarization grows even deeper. Should Biden triumph, the neolib center that he represents, which has no genuine political passion in its support – apart from TDS, which will become a non-factor once the Bad Orange Man is put out to pasture – will be assaulted by populists from the Right and Left.

That said, Trumperino is certainly much more entertaining, and even intermittently manages to put up a roadblock to SJWism, so I would certainly support him as an American if without the enthusiasm of 2016*.

However, as a Russian now living in Russia and planning to remain in Russia for the foreseeable future, I am obviously much less concerned about US domestic policy and more interested in the knock on effects on the international scene.

And the thing is, relative to the halcyon days of late 2016, the gap between Trump and the Democratic candidate is now much less wide.

Although Trump is personally well-disposed to Russia, and this has even been echoed by some of the smarter neocons who have become cognizant of the fact that China is the real long-term threat to US hegemony, in practice the fake Russiagate scandal jointly orchestrated by the Deep State and British intelligence has blocked any reset in US-Russian relations. Sanctions against Russia have been deepened, though they remain manageable. The US has provided lethal arms to Ukraine (if in quantities too low to make any material differences). Sanctions against Nord Stream have delayed but not blocked its construction, functionally diverting a few billion dollars from the Russian to the Ukrainian treasury. Consulates have been closed, people to people ties have been reduced. As I pointed out, for all the Russia hysteria, Trump has in practice done much more for the Israelis, Gulf Arabs, and Turks, in that order; the peoples of those countries have consequently “awarded” him with sharply increased approval ratings, a phenomenon that has not been observed in Russia, where Trump is vastly preferred to Biden but less overwhelmingly so than he was relative to HRC in 2016.

Indeed, some Russian analysts who lean towards the West even claim that Biden might be better for Russia, since the dialing down of Russiagate hysteria is a sine qua non of restoring some semblance of constructive relations. This is a questionable view, since many of the people Biden is expected to staff his the State Department with are ideologically driven Russophobes. Another consideration is that Biden is widely viewed as someone who can “heal” the Transatlantic relationship and who will be more friendly with China; since international relations are in many cases zero-sum, this will be bad for Russia, as it will reduce its freedom of maneuver. But even with respect to this, things are hardly crystal clear. The Europeans might huff and puff about Trump, but so far they have not had the political will to move out of the US orbit and assume a more independent course – is there any reason they will do otherwise in a second Trump term? As for China, the election of Biden may well prove to be a poisoned chalice, as the election of Trump turned out for Russia. Considering that the decision to implement the Great Bifurcation seems to be a bipartisan one that is endorsed by the Deep State, there is an excellent chance that people more competent than Boomer Bannon and his gaggle of anti-CPC jokers will manufacture a “Sinogate” to keep Biden on the straight and narrow.

One final consideration is that the slide of American society into total Wokeness and #BLM discourse suggests that a further distancing of Russia from the US and Western society in general may well be in Russia’s own interests (e.g. imagine a Biden win gives Twitter the confidence to finally ban RT from its platform – at that point, there’s a good chance Russia will start blocking Western social media, which is a tool of American espionage and ideological subversion). After six years of accumulating sanctions, Russia is much less vulnerable to Western economic pressure, so the economic costs of any further Biden sanctions should be relatively modest – and in any case worth the cost of arresting the seepage of “Woke Capital” into Russia. And this is all assuming that the Biden administration will even have time for Russia. As per above, I expect a Biden win to deepen internal American contradictions – not easen up on them (universal lesson here: Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it). The US may well be simply too preoccupied with internal problems to wreck much havoc in the international arena – embittered Trumpists who believe that the election was “stolen” from them (perhaps overspilling into secessionist sentiments), newly confident and angry Chapos eager to aggressively confront “the libs” over fiscal retrenchment in the wake of coronavirus-related stimulus spending and transfer of wealth to the oligarchs.

Consequently, FWIW, I “endorse” Trump for the Presidency, if with a great deal more caveats than in 2020.

***

Archive of US Elections 2020 Posts

 

Some outside articles that I found to be particularly interesting and/or informative:

***

Memories from 2016:

***

* Side note: Even from a governance perspective, while Trump failed on coronavirus, so did virtually every other country outside the East Asia region. I do not think a standard Dem administration would have done any better – the early opposition to masks was universal, and they were less aggressive about barring international travel. There are precisely two Dem candidates who I expect to have done significantly better: UBI-friendly, ethnic Chinese rationalist Andrew Yang and high-IQ technocrat Michael Bloomberg. But no good cause to think Biden or the DNC NPCs around him would have been better. Indeed, considering that white countries have proven to be fundamentally unserious about suppressing Corona – none of them ever countenanced centralized quarantine, which played a key role in East Asia’s stunning success – letting it rip through the population steadily, as has happened in the US (and Russia) over the summer, was in retrospect a superior strategy to reactive European policies, which consisted of hard suppression through lockdown, then a relaxation, then a sharp second spike necessitating a second round of expensive lockdowns. At the end of the day, it is the Europeans who are getting the worst of both worlds, trashing both their GDP and having no fewer excess deaths than the Americans.

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. I encourage all US citizens reading this who have not already voted to go out and vote for Trump today.

    Trump is the first postwar President under whom net immigration actually declined (which it did prior to COVID). The rest is commentary.

    The Enemy hates you and wants to replace you. Go vote for Trump. Don’t delay, don’t dawdle, don’t blackpill, and for the love of God do not entertain fanciful big-brained 4-D chess “accelerationist” takes about how voting for The Enemy is actually in your interests.

    Get out there and vote for Trump. Leave the rest of the ballot blank if you can’t stand the cretins.

  3. Nate Cohn has written a guide to election night here:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/upshot/election-night-guide.html

    Florida will be by far the most useful state to watch, since it counts the quickest. We’ll have a good idea of where the election is headed by 9 PM Eastern Time.

  4. • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @AnonFromTN
  5. A123 says:

    Key fact to keep in mind: (1)

    Yes, There Is a Hidden Trump Vote
    BUTLER, Pennsylvania

    “There are a lot of people who are too afraid to put up a sign [for Trump],” he said, explaining that his neighborhood, more than an hour away, was mixed between Trump and Biden voters, and black and white voters. During the protests that followed the death of George Floyd, he said, “I pulled the Trump magnet off my Jeep. Everybody took their signs down. People don’t want to be a target.”

    At some pro-Trump events around Pennsylvania in the last week — the president’s event, a big road rally that stretched over three states, a small event for Trump volunteers and activists featuring Ivanka Trump, and in other conversations — a large number of people who openly support Trump said they knew someone personally who would vote for the president but would not publicly acknowledge doing so.

    The sheer volume of deranged SJW Hate has skewed polling and other publcly visible methods (e.g. Yard signs) to create artificially high numbers for Biden. Blind faith in unreliable numbers has become an expression of “ultra-cope” for the #NeverTrump Globalists who are emotionally incapable of accepting their impending loss.

    PEACE 😇

    (1) https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/yes-there-is-a-hidden-trump-vote

  6. Octavian says: • Website
    @Thorfinnsson

    Absolutely second this.

    Today is a day to fight – I’m confident that victory for Donald J. Trump is more than possible and extremely preferrable.

    At the very least, the absolute schadenfreude derived from the weeping and gnashing of teeth of our enemies should motivate total commitment for the next hours.

    Please make sure, if you’re up for it, that everyone that you know that supports the incumbent will vote and can get to the polls.

    A certain luminary has created this helpful guide on that process:

    https://voting2020101870491.wordpress.com/2020/11/01/a-quick-guide-to-making-sure-all-your-friends-vote-trump/

  7. songbird says:

    I think there are three main ways to look at this election:

    1.) Accelerationism vs. anti-accelerationism: frankly, I’m not sure accelerationism makes sense. Based on the last 60 years, rate of change seems to outpace prediction rate.

    [MORE]
    We can even cut that period in half and consider the last 30 years. Extraordinarily dramatic in a place like Ireland. Seems like accelarationism results in dramatic demographic change. I can’t see how it could possibly make sense unless one was thinking of war and mass movements of people, but I don’t see that happening in the US. Maybe, in Europe.

    2.) Gradual reform in immigration restrictionism. Personally, I think the cat has been let out of the bag on this one. Whatever Trump does, even if he was 10x more serious, it does not matter because, at best Trump is only in for four more years. The chances of long restrictionist leadership after that seem close to nil, unless one presupposes that Democrats will be satisfied with the Republican handicap that is built-in to the system. But I think their policy is based on virtue signalling.

    3.) A concept that I like to call “facism” (sic). This is the idea that it is better to have the true power represented in the the faces of the politicians serving. So, Trump and Pence would be not very representative compared to Biden vs. Harris, especially considering how Biden would most likely not be able to serve two terms. In this case, Harris is not representing mulatta-Indians, so much as she is representing the ideology of diversity.

    I am considering this election under the rubric of anti-accelerationism, though #3 is how I will satisfy myself in the event of Trump losing.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  8. I, for one, agree with Brad Griffin on the meaning of the 2020 election, down to not voting even though I could easily have (I was sick for a while, but I recovered by mid-October), even though my instincts are much more libertarian than his are:

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2020/11/01/final-thoughts/

    The issues we are facing today are also different because of Trump. We lost hundreds of our historic monuments which were torn down by violent mobs. Law and order was allowed to collapse in half the country while Trump boasted about criminal justice reform. We lost online free speech. We lost our right to free assembly due to violent mobs. Democratic cities were allowed to essentially become a 21st century version of sundown towns while the Trump Justice Department prosecuted White Nationalists. He multiplied the ranks of our enemies a thousandfold while demoralizing and splintering our own movement. Meanwhile, he delivered a trophy case of victories for Israel and militant Zionists who hit the jackpot with his administration.

    Over the last four years, we have seen a reversion to mainstream conservatism except now the difference is that it is openly gay and more stupid, feckless and ineffective than ever before. There is less room, not more, in the GOP for nationalists like Steve King who was drummed out of the party for wondering why Western civilization has become taboo. President George H.W. Bush could at least put down the Rodney King riots. In contrast, America probably hasn’t gone a day without riots since George Floyd died under the “fascist” Donald Trump. What are these people doing for me as a social conservative voter? After replacing Anthony Scalia, Neil Gorsuch read transgenderism into the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    As a social conservative and economic populist, shouldn’t I be excited about this “realignment” that has taken place under Donald Trump? What is the GOP doing for me on either of those fronts though? Offering the Platinum Plan to blacks and the American Dream plan to Hispanics while lecturing me about “identity politics”? Appointing Ric Grenell to own the gay Left by waging a global crusade for homosexuality around the world? We can’t even get a second stimulus check out of the Republican Senate much less anything responsive to virtually any pressing issue of our times like student loan debt that is not of interest to Republican donors. Predictably, we get “conservative judges” (who rule in favor of social liberalism), more tax cuts, deregulation, hikes in military spending and anything Israel wants. Occasionally, the GOP will deliver some fancy of the donor class like criminal justice reform with power.

    The inevitable Trump loss might finally wake the 46% up.

    • Replies: @AP
  9. Dreadilk says:

    Let’s crush dem faggots.

    • Agree: AnonFromTN
  10. @Thorfinnsson

    Get out there and vote for Trump. Leave the rest of the ballot blank if you can’t stand the cretins.

    I agree: if you did not vote yet, go and vote against all Dem scum you can. They cannot be trusted with a penny, so even disgusting Reps are better.

    I did not plan to vote this time (as our choice is between a moron with Alzheimer and a moron w/o), but…

    Dem scum (both city council and the mayor of Nashville) got the city deep into the red by their gross mismanagement or thievery (most likely both, considering that they are Dems). They tried to alleviate this crisis by jacking up real estate taxes by 34-37.5%. After I got my real estate tax bill, I went and voted early against every Dem scum on the ballot, including corrupt senile walking dead. Two Dem lowlifes ran unopposed, so I did write-in.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  11. @Thorfinnsson

    Spotted the high school dropout.

    Trump has done jack shit to stop immigration, which has been in decline since 1999. All US presidents since GW Bush have overseen declines in the immigrant population, including Obama.

    Trump supporters have absolutely nothing to go on, the guy’s a wet noodle, he’s accomplished nothing for his braindead fans and everything for minorities.

    Democrats + COVID are the way forward. Trump is an abomination and anyone still supporting him is either mentally challenged or a minority/female small business owning CHUMP.

    • Troll: AnonFromTN
  12. Hilarious that this week of all weeks is when the final nail got driven into the Russiagate coffin.

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/11/03/raw-intelligence

    But its orchestrators got what they wanted. One of the most successful intel operations in history.

  13. At the end of the day, it is the Europeans who are getting the worst of both worlds, trashing both their GDP and having no fewer excess deaths than the Americans.

    Further evidence that Serbia is not European?

    • Agree: TheTotallyAnonymous
  14. @Anatoly Karlin

    In fact, it didn’t. Fraud worked, though. Traitor Yeltsin lost in 1996, but cowardly commie nonentity Zyuganov did not have balls to challenge the result.

    • Agree: Yevardian
  15. @AnonFromTN

    Yours is a common story around these parts:

    >Identifies as a white trashionalist, laissez faire piece of shit

    >Voluntarily chooses to live in a gay city metroplex with a 30% black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian population

    >Complains about taxes and niggers

    How much of the alt-right could be salvaged if it weren’t for this malignant tumor of greedy kikes and coloreds, pretending to be white people, who are magnetically attracted to black neighborhoods and blue cities, in spite of a professed dislike for blacks and Democrats?

    The percentage of actual white people who share your dilemma is less than 2%. To the average white, black people don’t exist. They’ve never seen a black. They’ve never complained about this country’s non-existent taxes. Yet you are hijacking what could otherwise be a productive forum, and turned it in to a cringepit of white-people-who-don’t-like-taxes-and-fear-nigger-criminals-despite-choosing-to-live-in-the-hood. Something 98% of white people couldn’t even contemplate. It’s unthinkable to them that people like you actually exist.

    And man, does it ever bleed through in the form of the pessimism that is reflected in the posts around here. I guess trying to row up shit creek without a paddle can be taxing on the mind. Here’s a suggestion: why not move to rural America and try actually living the kind of lifestyle that you espouse? Or would that impede your Semitic desire to collect more rat-bux? Or do you like fucking blacks or something? Is it just a stubborn stupidity that keeps you from moving and joining the white community? Why do you think the world revolves around you? Get ready for an ass whipping this Election Tuesday. The white people of America are voting your scum president out.

    • Replies: @Alexander Turok
  16. Russia will start blocking Western social media, which is a tool of American espionage and ideological subversion

    What you need blocked is PornHub. Every other “verified amateur” there is a Russian whore. And most of them are not ugly dog faces. Endless masses of 8, 9 and 10s getting fucked and dildoing themselves in their refurbished commieblock apartments. Much more significant damage than Taco Bell turning their logo into a rainbow flag on Twitter during pride month.

  17. AP says:
    @E. Harding

    His banning of critical race theory in the government is real and starting to get off the ground; lawsuits are now also starting. He kept us free of most “refugees.” Stock performance has been good for retirement accounts and state budgets. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the, perhaps not good, but better.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  18. What do you think of Scott Alexander’s article Trump: A Setback for Trumpism?

    https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/13/trump-a-setback-for-trumpism/

  19. @Thorfinnsson

    The Enemy hates you and wants to replace you.

    This is the same twaddle we see every election season from the GOP. If you’re unwilling to walk away, you’re not gonna get a good deal. Who said that? Donald Trump.

    I was planning on voting as you advise, but then COVID happened and I didn’t like the weak response, nor the bailout and work disincentives, nor the championing of high oil prices. And the eviction moratorium, which I seem to be the only one to have noticed. The negative effect will be not just on the landlords, but on anyone who rents outside rich neighborhoods as the risk of future expropriations will be factored into the price. And I believe that those people in that situation would be better off if Hilary were President, as she’d do the same thing but the Right would be opposing it instead of following Dumb Prole Cult Leader off a cliff.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  20. @priorities

    It’s mostly Czechs for some reason, you also have that Estonian chick.

  21. Hartnell says:

    Trump won’t win. I was checking Rasmussen today and they had Trump up a couple of points in 2016 vs Clinton. Now? He is a point below Biden and 3 pts behind him in Pensylvania.

    Also as for that “supposed” anger to Biden by the right wing? Guess what? It’ll go exactly back to the Internet and stay there with dreamy posts about “secession” and online polls but nothing will come of it. The truth is – Trump was the last hurrah for a dying old white America. The rest of the country is simply too woke to turn things around at this point.

    Sorry to tell it like it is but unless there is a huge hidden shy Trump vote that wins him another 4 years, Biden has got this.

  22. hgv says:

    Mask wearing doesnt seem to have done much good,since they were imposed many months ago and the cases still went up mightily. Other countries did many of the things that East Asians did, but it seems they did not do them in time or well enough.

  23. @JohnPlywood

    Your data are only for the illegal alien population.

    https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html

    Net migration began to decline immediately following Trump’s election and continued to decline. And this happened under a robust economic expansion with low unemployment and rising wages, which is exactly the kind of climate that ordinarily fosters an expansion of immigration.

    Trump has also presided over a sharp decline in “refugee” resettlement, including nearly a total halt to those from the Middle East.

    https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2019/0909/As-global-refugees-hit-record-highs-US-welcomes-record-lows

    Trump’s flaws and failures are well-known and need not be rehashed by me. But on THE central issue he has been a dramatic improvement over all of his predecessors.

    So I reiterate: get out there and vote for Trump. Do not all The Enemy or blackpillers like Brad “Food Stamps” Griffin to demoralize you.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Thanks: Mark G.
    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  24. hgv says:

    The entire immigration situation is really funny in a way. Despite the fact that it was almost uncontrolled, the blacks seem to be the most problem-ridden demographic; and they are not immigrants. Half of the Hispanic population considered themselves and/or is considered white. This half should be of a really good quality, and not a burden. The other groups of immigrants,even from Africa, are mostly high quality. The US has more of a problem of left-wing and minority radicalization and anti-white histeria, and less of a pure immigration problems (though not negligible; tens of millions of useless Hispanics and latinos got inside because of lax immigration policies).

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @EldnahYm
  25. @Alexander Turok

    Pre-Trump the Buchananite argument for the GOP was literally “judges”. Pat Buchanan in 2004 advised patriots to vote for George W Bush on the basis of judicial appointments. Pretty weak gruel.

    The situation with Trump is not identical as you can see from my comment #26.

    W, for his part, laments that he spent his accrued political capital from reelection on attempting to destroy Social Security instead of destroying America’s borders. It’s all in Decision Points.

    Trump’s response to COVID is appalling, but as those us here know the response of pretty much every country outside of China, Korea, and Vietnam has been appalling.

    The other issues you cite are the sort of thing worth discussing in a normal country but don’t much matter today. Though I will note that oil & gas are seven percent of gross domestic product and the USA is the world’s largest producer (if still, barely, a net importer). Low oil prices thus don’t have the same benefit to us that they did at the end of the twentieth century.

    EDIT:

    • Replies: @Tusk
  26. Is immigration really the central issue, Thor? Most of my problems as a White man in America seem to be caused by other White people. And, of course, I’m an immigrant myself. The non-Jewish immigrants mostly seem to be either puppets or silent. They didn’t invent bioleninism, nor are they the main beneficiaries or promoters of it. I’m not a huge fan of Griffin’s support of the welfare state, but I don’t care about it myself. Trump certainly hasn’t reduced the welfare state; if anything, popular opinion has become relentlessly more in favor of it under his watch as Medicaid has been expanded to such states as Utah, Oklahoma, and Idaho. And Griffin’s not wrong on the central issue of Internet freedom, which has been eliminated under Trump. Look at the fate of r/The_Donald and the New York Post. If Trump supporters themselves don’t feel safe (in fact, feel much less safe) after four years of the man in power, why should I vote for Trump?

    “outside of China, Korea, and Vietnam has been appalling.”

    The Cuban and Uruguayan leadership did a good job, too, don’t forget.

  27. @JohnPlywood

    In the event you aren’t just a troll, you obviously don’t live in the South, thus your idea that you can just drive out to the country and there won’t be any blacks.

    It’s not like there’s an army of Americans from red states migrating to NYC or San Fransisco. Most of it is people complaining about places they were born in, which only turned blue due to the influx of Californians and international migrants.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @EldnahYm
  28. @E. Harding

    It’s the central issue that anything can be done about.

    “Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.”

    Theodore Roosevelt, 26th President of the United States

    The ultimate conflict within Western societies is of course between white people (or rather whites versus Jews and Judaized “woke” and striver whites), with non-whites serving as auxiliaries of the woke whites and symbolic totems. We do not have an opportunity to attack The Enemy head on at this time, though Trump did do us a favor with his EO against critical race theory.

    In this ultimate conflict we derive no benefit by allowing The Enemy to further increase his numbers through continued international immigration. We are also on the cusp of a potential African immigration apocalypse which would be even more disastrous than the barbarian invasions of the Roman Empire were. Every patriot must be alert to this danger and act accordingly.

    As far as internet freedom goes, Republicans in Congress are beginning to improve on this issue even if Blormf may was well be Mr. Magoo. We should hope that they continue to haul “Big Tech” executives in for public questioning.

    Lastly, my comment about food stamps was intended as an insult against Brad Griffin and not a comment on the welfare state.

    • Agree: Dreadilk
    • Disagree: E. Harding
    • Replies: @E. Harding
  29. Hartnell says:
    @E. Harding

    I think it depends on what country you live in. For Europe, it certainly is as it is heavily eroding traditional European societies and destroying what has been built and fought for forever.

    America on the other hand is, as I am sure pro white people will not like to hear, a nation of immigrants. It used to be frightened of non-Anglo whites coming into the country (as was the case of the know nothings and HP Lovecraft) and now it is non-Whites.

    The truth is, I predict America will become like Brazil. There will be a “whitening up effect” of the more intelligent groups. The East Asians will disappear into the sea of white along with the whiter Hispanics. Multiracial children who grow up thinking of themselves as “white” will internarry with whites. In the end, you will end up with a very white multiracial upper class surrounded in a dark underclass.

    So no, for a country like America, immigration isn’t a problem. It is working as intended. I’m sure in 100 years, the multiracial white class will be belly aching about something else.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  30. songbird says:
    @hgv

    The other groups of immigrants,even from Africa, are mostly high quality.

    Some of the black immigrants that I’ve seen look like they were extras from the movie Black Hawk Down or that one where the guy taunts Tom Hanks and says “I am the captain now!”

    Smart fraction is just the tip of the spear.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  31. @Thorfinnsson

    The immigration wave we’re experiencing right now is much more analogous to Italy’s Hellenization/Syrianization under the High Empire than to the events of the fourth and fifth centuries (and the Goths and Vandals didn’t actually do much harm to the regions they conquered, at least, at first). Also, as I have said, given the Afrotriumphs on coronavirus, I doubt a substantial amount of importation of West Africans would make things much worse than they already are. Mississippi lives, and so does Maryland.

  32. The polls will turn out to be mostly bunk and it will be pretty close. I think Trump winning is more likely than not but it depends on the strange election system so hard to say.

    He should have stuck to his original line that corona is just a flu and that he shouldn’t do anything special about it, that’s proven now but he screwed it up by going all over the place. One moment he is saying that it’s just a flu and the next moment he’s claiming that it’s the deadly Chinese communist killer virus and that he saved millions by shutting down travel from Chinese Wuhan communist party virus communistland. The inconsistency makes him look like a fool.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  33. At the end of the day, it is the Europeans who are getting the worst of both worlds, trashing both their GDP and having no fewer excess deaths than the Americans.

    From la politique du pire perspective I would say that Corona-chan has been more good than bad for Europe:

    The economy crashes and riots and protests erupt without having to suffer a resultant worsening of demographics (as contrary to predictions non-whites have a higher mortality than whites despite having a younger population and since Corona-chan probably contributed to Erdogan’s failure in pulling his zerg rush move again this spring).

    • Replies: @Hartnell
  34. @Alexander Turok

    LOL I’m “obviously not” from the Say-ouff!!! Even though most of you are in fact recent transplants from such exotic locations as the Jewish Autonomous Oblast in Russia and Los Angeles, California.

    A random selection of rural towns in Tennessee mostly yielded white populations of +90%. Only one town I selected (Waverly) was less than 90% white, and it was still +85% white.

    At the 2000 census, there were 5,740 people, 2,211 households and 1,686 families residing in Lynchburg-Moore County. The population density was 44.4 per square mile (17.2/km2). There were 2,515 housing units at an average density of 19.5 per square mile (7.5/km2). The racial makeup was 95.84% White, 2.72% African American, 0.19% Native American, 0.14% Asian, 0.51% from other races, and 0.61% from two or more races. Hispanics and Latinos of any race were 0.78% of the population

    As of the census[6] of 2010, there were 2,680 people, 1,052 households, and 608 families residing in the town [[Woodbury, Tennessee]]. The population density was 1,552.0 people per square mile (541.9/km2). There were 1,159 housing units at an average density of 671.1 per square mile (258.7/km2). The racial makeup of the town was 94.36% White, 3.83% African American, 0.54% Native American, 0.04% Asian, 0.04% Pacific Islander, 0.41% from other races, and 0.78% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2.35% of the population.

    As of the census[6] of 2010, there were 2,680 people, 1,052 households, and 608 families residing in the town [Waverly, Tennessee]. The population density was 1,552.0 people per square mile (541.9/km2). There were 1,159 housing units at an average density of 671.1 per square mile (258.7/km2). The racial makeup of the town was 94.36% White, 3.83% African American, 0.54% Native American, 0.04% Asian, 0.04% Pacific Islander, 0.41% from other races, and 0.78% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2.35% of the population.

    As of the census[4] of 2000, there were 3,754 people, 1,534 households, and 989 families residing in the city [[Hohenwald, Tennessee]]. The population density was 861.4 people per square mile (332.4/km2). There were 1,708 housing units at an average density of 391.9 per square mile (151.3/km2). The racial makeup of the city was 96.59% White, 2.08% Black, 0.11% Native American, 0.16% Asian, 0.32% from other races, and 0.75% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino people of any race were 1.12% of the population.

    As of the census[5] of 2000, there were 55,469 people, 23,720 households, and 14,018 families residing in the city [[Johnson City, Tennessee]]. The population density was 1,412.4 per square mile. There were 25,730 housing units at an average density of 655.1 per square mile (253.0/km2). The racial makeup of the city was 90.09 percent white, 6.40 percent African American, 0.26% Native American, 1.22 percent Asian, 0.02 percent Pacific Islander, 0.69 percent from other races, and 1.32 percent from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 1.89 percent of the population.

    I did come across one town (Pigeon Forge) that was about 80% white, 20% Hispanic, apparently it’s some kind of resort town so most of those Hispanics are cleaning ladies and a lot of white people come passing through town, which aren’t included in census figures.

    So as usual, more uninformed Alt-Right pessimism. Huge swaths of the South are +80% white. Minorities mostly live in the cities. Minorities hate under-100k towns.

    And that’s just Tennessee. Other southern states like Oklahoma and Texas have fewer blacks. But why would even want to continue living in the South? Most white people do not. Most whites don’t live in the South. Why not leave that shitty bug infested sub-tropical steam cooker, and move somewhere more agreeable?

  35. @Hartnell

    The truth is, I predict America will become like Brazil. There will be a “whitening up effect” of the more intelligent groups. The East Asians will disappear into the sea of white along with the whiter Hispanics. Multiracial children who grow up thinking of themselves as “white” will internarry with whites. In the end, you will end up with a very white multiracial upper class surrounded in a dark underclass.

    The difference is that Brazil unlike the US doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of anti-white antagonism. In Brazil I get the impression that even the mixed race ones want to be seen as “white”, being associated with the Portuguese colonial elite is a positive thing.

    In contrast being white in the US is increasingly seen as a negative thing, associated with things like “racism”, and notions of unearned privilege. I get the impression that being associated with the old WASP colonial ruling class is seen as doubly negative.

    If the US becomes like Brazil this makes me think that its ruling class would be more likely to be made up of high IQ non-whites, like Chinese, Indians and white Hispanics than actual whites per se.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @Hartnell
    , @EldnahYm
  36. If (when?) Biden wins Texas, Brexit will be in deep trouble. Biden will support the Irish Republic; the Boomer right will lose their Elan.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  37. @Thorfinnsson

    Illegal immigration was one of the two pillars of Trump’s entire campaign/charade. Net migration tells us nothing about the number of immigrants in the country. That’s because it’s merely a ratio of people moving in vs. people moving out. That’s an utterly useless metric in a country like the United States, where the number of people leaving is incredibly small. This is an example of alt-righters using niche data to portray a reality that doesn’t exist.

    The actual number of legal immigrants in the USA is the same as it was in the Obama era. Trump hasn’t done shit to stop immigration.

    https://i2.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/201909_BrookingsMetro_Foreign-share-pop_Frey-02.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1

    And sure, refugee resettlement has declined in the USA, as it has in Europe. That’s because the refugee crisis is largely over. There’s no refugees left. You’ll notice even the peak refugee resettlement in the 2010s is still overshadowed by the huge numbers resettled in the USA during the Reagan-Bush era.

    Everybody get out there and vote for Biden… 150,000 times. I have it on good authority that the polling officers will allow infinite votes to anyone wearing a pro-Biden mask. Biden’s definitely gonna win but you need to really put in some sweat equity to send a resounding message to the Repubs: we hate you and we never want to see you ever again. Let’s set a new goal for the dissident right in 2020… Biden 538!!!!!!!!!!!! Cast 150,000 votes each!!!!!!!

  38. Mr. XYZ says:

    more regressive than HRC in 2012,

    That’s HRC in *2016*!

    Consequently, FWIW, I “endorse” Trump for the Presidency, if with a great deal more caveats than in 2020.

    That’s “… with a great deal more caveats than in *2016*.”

  39. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Europe Europa

    White Hispanics are still white, as are white Middle Easterners. A hijab doesn’t make a white Arab non-white.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  40. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Philip Owen

    Why would Brexit be in deep trouble?

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  41. @Jaakko Raipala

    The inconsistency makes him look like a fool.

    He is a fool, that’s why he looks like one. But he is still preferable to the other fool, who has Alzheimer, as well as totally insane Dems (meaning the crazier part of the elites) behind him.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  42. @Mr. XYZ

    Biden will require the UK to honour the Good Friday Agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland. The Tories were going to ditch it to stop a customs border between NI and Great Britain.

  43. Hartnell says:
    @Europe Europa

    This is a very good point you make. That said it seems to be only the actual white people who are mainstream anti white. Aside from the blacks over there, I get little feeling that the other groups really card about whites. Most (in particular the groups you mentioned) actually want to intermarry with whites.

    Maybe in 100 years, the future potential multiracial white elite may view the white man today as some tragic ‘the fallen gaul’ type of figure that did his best to write everyone’s wrongs. They may even seek to restore some new weird version of ‘whiteness’ in their own image.

    Let’s remember – at one point it was the Romans that were the civilised, noble people, which those barbaric Germanic peoples sought to emulate. To become like the Romans themselves.

    So perhaps some white person with Chinese heritage in 200 years is going to look at whiteness and its definitions in a completely different light.

    • LOL: EldnahYm
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  44. @Mr. XYZ

    White Hispanics are still white, as are white Middle Easterners.

    Victory of la raza cósmica:

    A hijab doesn’t make a white Arab non-white.

    Don’t be so literal, people use colours as a visual short hand for race when what they really should use is phenotypes. White is a shorthand for European, just like black is shorthand for African despite some Dravidians being pitch-black.

    There are reasonably many Arabs with pale faces, there are very few with Europeanesque facial features.

    And that’s not even getting into culture.

  45. Hartnell says:
    @Hyperborean

    One thing we have to remember about the current migrants in Europe is that they are there for free money. What is interesting is that when the EU tried to offload some of them to the Baltic states and other regions, the vast majority actually left and still tried to go to Germany and other wealthier states. It was never about the safety, just about money.

    I think that if the Euro zone continues to have money issues, the vast majority would quite happily leave and try their luck elsewhere. Maybe even return to war torn Syria for example to help rebuild? Economies usually start to grow very quickly during a rebuilding period…

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
  46. Just past noon here. Nate Silver has P(Biden) = .89 + P(Trump) = .10.

    • Replies: @Jaakko Raipala
  47. @Hartnell

    So perhaps some white person with Chinese heritage in 200 years is going to look at whiteness and its definitions in a completely different light.

    Some people live in the future.

    • Replies: @Hartnell
  48. @Morton's toes

    Almost midnight here. Made room in calendar, gonna stay up for this and already had some alcohol.

    My consultation with ancestral spirits says P(Biden) = 0.14 while P(Trump) = 0.88.

    • Replies: @Lars Porsena
  49. @Hartnell

    Maybe even return to war torn Syria for example to help rebuild? Economies usually start to grow very quickly during a rebuilding period…

    That’s unfortunately very unlikely due to the combination of Syrian land regulations aimed against enemies and severe American Caesar sanctions, the most important clause pertaining to this of which is to block re-construction of Syria:

    Introduced on 2 April, Law 10 sets in motion a massive overhaul of the government land registry across Syria, state news agency SANA reported.

    Law 10 gives property owners both in Syria and abroad just 30 days – starting 11 April – to present their deeds to local council offices in the country. Otherwise, the state can liquidate their titles and seize their holdings. Once the registration window closes, “the remaining plots will be sold at auction,” reads Article 31 of the law.

    For citizens living abroad like Muhammad, family members as distant as a second cousin may present the documents in their stead.

    However, the millions of Syrians impacted by Law 10 include refugees and internally displaced people without family back home to assist with registration, as well as people whose deeds were lost or destroyed during the war.

    Perhaps most ominously for opposition supporters, all property owners wishing to register their lands must first obtain approval from state security officials, a lawyer in Damascus familiar with the law told Syria Direct. The lawyer spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions.

    “Without this approval, they will not be able to prove ownership of the property,” said the lawyer. “Therefore, it would be sold at auction or claimed by another person.”

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/assads-land-grab-refugees-face-losing-homes-they-fled-under-new-law

    Yet a closer look at the 15 Department of State sanctions and the 24 Department of Treasury sanctions reveals a puzzling fact. All of the targets could have been sanctioned without the Caesar Act.

    All of the people and entities sanctioned were sanctioned under existing executive orders that pre-dated Caesar, two (PDF) from 2011 (PDF) and one from 2019 (PDF). And only nine of the 34 were sanctioned specifically under Caesar authorities, but they were also sanctioned under existing executive orders.

    What are we to make of this? First, although implementation started in June, there is much more to come. Syria—and Russia and Iran—have not yet felt the Caesar Act in full force.

    Second, more speculatively, the United States is likely to focus the Caesar Act’s power on stopping the Assad government from reconstructing Syria on expropriated land in a way that would forever change Syrian demographics and prevent the return of refugees and displaced people, and enrich Assad and his allies.

    […]

    And even more important, it called for a strategy to stop reconstruction in areas controlled by Syria, Russia, or Iran where civilians have been forcibly displaced.

    Syrian laws instituted since the civil war began cleared the way for Assad to take the land of the millions of displaced with essentially no recourse, forever blocking their return.

    The nine entities sanctioned under the Caesar Act in June all have one thing in common. They are all involved in reconstruction projects that will benefit the Assad government and Assad associates. Seven are involved in a development called Marota City in western Damascus being built on expropriated land. Two are involved in the Grand Town Tourist City, a luxury development near Damascus airport.

    […]

    “We are targeting those people who are benefitting from the construction” and creating “playgrounds for oligarchs” while the war rages, James Jeffrey (PDF), U.S. special representative for Syria, said in discussing the Caesar sanctions.

    https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/07/with-rollout-of-caesar-sanctions-on-syria-us-is-just.html

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
  50. @Jaakko Raipala

    You are a good 8-9 hours away from anything being decided so you may as well get some sleep man.

    • Agree: AP
  51. Hartnell says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Just as I suspected. I think this proves the point I am talking about. What we have to understand is that the current white majorities that are experiencing this profound “white guilt” complex actually hail from, you guessed it, the Germanic territories.

    When the new “white group” starts to form, they just simply will not have the same guilt complex as the aforementioned group. It’s like all those people who find out they have some Viking DNA and think they are cool. What that’s old saying? “A man will feel guilty if his father is a bad guy but will find it cool if his great-grandfather was a pirate” or something. Can’t remember the exact quote but you get my point.

    I think in the long term it is inevitable. I don’t think we will see the coffee coloured world so envisioned by the left as the solution to all the worlds problems but simply the birth of new groups who identify as “white” and seeing themselves as better then the rest. The great true irony in all of this.

    • Agree: Ano4
    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @Coconuts
  52. @Hartnell

    Your hairbrained scenario would require non-Germanic white groups to have a higher fertility rate than the Germanic whites for that to happen.

    As it happens, Germanics are the most fertile major white group in Europe and also in the Americas. There are even substantial numbers of Germanicnl fringe groups (Amish, Mormons, etc) with TFR above 3.

    And even more, Germanics are the only White major group that have demonstrsted adaptation to the new market system. All southern European countries (as well as their cultural kin, the French) are in terminal economic decline, while the Germanics just keep prospering.

    Time to face the facts, mate. Germanics have won in the system their forefathers created.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  53. Tusk says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    I loved that Turok game as a kid. Thanks Mr Alexander Turok for reminding me of it!

    • Agree: Thorfinnsson
  54. Alright, the Times has its Election Results page up, make sure to right-click and open in new tab Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, as well as Kentucky and Ohio:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

  55. Oddshark real time looks like money is pouring on Biden.

    8:30 am ET +135 -165
    10:00 am ET +140 -170
    12:00 pm ET +160 -190
    1:15 pm ET +170 -200
    2:00 pm ET +180 -210
    2:30 pm ET +175 -205
    3:45 pm ET +170 -200

    This is not even close to .89 to .10 though. More like .67 to .33.

  56. Richard Spencer votes for Biden:

    • Replies: @Tusk
    , @Alexander Turok
  57. @JohnPlywood

    All US presidents since GW Bush have overseen declines in the immigrant population, including Obama.

    “All US presidents.” You mean all 2? And one of them is Trump? Strong point there.

  58. A tweet that will probably stand the test of time:

  59. Tusk says:
    @E. Harding

    Imagine taking this guy seriously…

  60. My spies in Idaho think it is safe for Trump. Probably. Texas will be tight. I still say Biden for Texas.

    • Replies: @JL
  61. Coconuts says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Do you know of stats for the fertility rate of white ethnic Swedes, Germans, Dutch, British etc.? Not just the native born populations of those countries?

    All that needs to happen for what Hartnell is talking about is for mixed race couples to get together. They already do, the influence of woke plus demographic shifts should ensure that there are more and more of them all the time.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  62. LondonBob says:

    Looks like Florida will be called early for Trump, big win there and you can go to bed early.

  63. @Coconuts

    Yes, i do. The fertility rate for white Swedes is the highest of all native Europeans on the mainland (Icelandics are the highest of all in Europe).

    The highest fertility of all European groups globally belongs to the Germanic Mormons and Amish/Mennonites. The latter usually have TFRs above 5 and are pretty much the most fertile group of people on the planet.

  64. Coconuts says:
    @Hartnell

    When the new “white group” starts to form, they just simply will not have the same guilt complex as the aforementioned group.

    There may come a point where it suddenly dies out among Germanics themselves due to rapid decreases in the size of their ethnic groups and numbers of both mixed race and people of non-European descent in their countries.

    Maybe European Woke is an Indian summer for a certain kind of left-wing anti-racist worldview which will start to seem like a parody in a decade or two’s time.

  65. @JohnPlywood

    “Huge swaths of the South are +80% white.”

    “Most whites don’t live in the South.”

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but these statements don’t seem to add up. Are you saying that whites are more numerous elsewhere, despite being a clear majority?

  66. @E. Harding

    Is he aware that ballot selfies are a crime?

    • Replies: @E. Harding
  67. @JohnPlywood

    WN is silly, as is your theory that WN’s are recent transplants from the J.A.O.(particularly laughable since there aren’t any Jews there anyway) As to the issue at hand, there’s no economic future for <100k towns.

  68. @Alexander Turok

    Not in Montana (though it is in Michigan). Also, the Florida electorate according to Cohn is 1 point more R than he estimated (his final poll was Biden +3). I’m looking at the Indiana/Kentucky results he Times is reporting, comparing them to the U.S. Election Atlas county results, and I can’t find anything in there to change my default hypothesis that, all else being equal, the election is a five point uniform swing (by margin) to the Dems (though it’s obviously larger in more college-educated areas, smaller in rural areas, etc.).

    • Thanks: Alexander Turok
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  69. A123 says:

    The early numbers are starting to come in.

    PEACE 😇

  70. @E. Harding

    Yep. I should really go to bed. I am in the UK. It’s Biden’s night. The rest is just accountancy.

  71. The NYT needle gives Florida to DONALD TRUMP due to LATINOS. We’ll see how Georgia and North Carolina now go.

    • Replies: @Tusk
    , @A123
  72. Cucky mask queers are absolutely done here, whether Trump or Biden wins. If Biden wins, it will be clear that Covid hysteria was just political theater meant to hurt Trump’s chances and we can go back to normal. If Trump wins, the maskers will be rounded up for crimes against humanity.

  73. Tusk says:
    @E. Harding

    You gave Florida to Biden. Bad sign for you.

  74. A123 says:
    @E. Harding

    We will know a great deal about FL in about an hour.

    The early unofficial numbers indicated high turnout in GOP leaning districts.

    Panhandle Florida counties are still polling until 8:00 EST. So, no official releases yet.

    There should be a good cut at 8:15-8:30 when the split between registered party turnout is known. The state is 5.2MM DNC / 5.0MM GOP. If GOP turnout is higher than DNC, that points to the “Enthusiasm” factor working in Trump’s favor.

    PEACE 😇

  75. This Florida call actually does mean quite a lot: no risk of IA/OH going D, substantially less of a risk of TX going D. I’m keeping the rest of my state calls as they are, and I still don’t think Trump will win.

    • Replies: @AP
  76. Florida is in the bag. Something has to be done about those pesky Latino white supremacists….

    All going according to my predictions for now. GE likely Trumpist, looking good in NC too. But no cause to believe the Blue Wall will fall, considering that Trump as expected really is doing worse with whites.

    Still, might be close in PA (region specific factors) and Nevada (longshot and their Hispanics don’t have many Cubans, but who knows).

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  77. A123 says:

    The top line results from Fox News look odd because they are showing actual counts (not predictions). However, they allow drill down to a county map, so you can see the early Texas Blue is due to results from the Houston area.

    https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results

    PEACE 😇

  78. AP says:
    @E. Harding

    This Florida call actually does mean quite a lot: no risk of IA/OH going D

    I don’t think those states will go D, but Ohio is not Florida: it has taken Covid more seriously, and popular ex-governor is a never-Trumper.

  79. NYT results for Florida currently have 90% of estimated votes counted. Compared to 2016:

    1. Overall vote total (if 90% is correct) will be 11.5 million, as compared to 9.3 million in 2016, an increase of more than 20%.

    2. Trump’s current margin of 2.1% (of total votes cast) is significantly higher than in 2016 (1.2%)

  80. nickels says:

    Going all as I predicted, except a small fluke with SC going red.
    Trump on his way to 374.

  81. LondonBob says:

    Michigan should do it.

  82. Dmitry says:

    I can see one objectively good thing from Trump’s presidency, and one bad one. Excluding those, it seems mainly subjective and speculative whether he would be better or worse than Clinton.

    + Unambiguously good policy of Trump: Reduction of corporation tax to flat 21%. It would have been better to reduce it to lower than 21%, but this was an important first step from an US perspective.

    – Unambiguously negative policy of Trump: incompetent management of coronavirus pandemic in the USA.

    Of course, first responsibility of the coronavirus pandemic is with China, and its poor hygiene regulation level that carried the zoonosis to the human world. But Trump’s response for the pandemic includes many mistakes, although there is also responsibility of insufficient planning for pandemic response with the previous presidents (and the incompetent response is also in many other countries).

    • Replies: @AP
    , @anonymous coward
  83. Meanwhile, NYT/Siena polling has held up in Texas: both the expected suburban bloodbath for Rs and Rio Grande bloodbath for Dems have occurred as promised:

    Libs are… confused. The alt-lite is ecstatic (of course, they’ll still lose the election with these numbers among urban Whites).

  84. Trump appears to have won North Carolina, though, more importantly, Thom Tillis appears to have lost the Senate race there. Both wins were by about a point.

    My lessons to learn from this are the same as in 2016: pay less attention to polls. Ironically, I called North Carolina correctly in 2016 by ignoring polls and paying attention to early voting; had I done so this time, I would have called it correctly in 2020. Not trusting NYT/Siena to fix its errors again. Also, uniform swing does not exist, and, as in 2016, the polls correctly pointed to trends visible in the election results (the College White-Latino convergence, non-college Whites staying with Trump) but understated their magnitude.

    • Replies: @A123
  85. LondonBob says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Trump just crushing it, he has also done better with rural Whites.

  86. Menes says: • Website

    The pollsters were wrong again. Its going to be close. Very close.

  87. AP says:
    @Dmitry

    + Also he prevented “refugees” from coming to the USA. Hopefully this will be more than a 4 year reprieve.

    + He also kept us out of wars.

    Sometimes no news (no terror attacks by refugees, no wars) is good news.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Dmitry
  88. A123 says:
    @E. Harding

    Thom Tillis appears to have lost the Senate race there. Both wins were by about a point.

    Tillis has popped back ahead by 1% (~50,000 votes). If Cal Cunningham had not been caught up in scandal he probably could have beaten a weak Tillis. Now it looks like he will fall just short.

    Still too early to call.
    ___

    Overall the big story continues to be “Enthusiasm Wins”:
    — GOP turnout was high
    — Urban (mostly black) turnout was down

    This seems to be repeating itself everywhere.

    We probably will not see Milwaukee results tonight, but it looks like fewer votes were cast. That is very bad for any Biden hope of capturing WI.
    ___

    Ohio is still inscrutable. Trump appears to be losing with white women especially badly, much worse as a % than any other state. This is countering the lackluster urban turnout.

    PEACE 😇

  89. Menes says:

    Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania up for grabs. Whoever wins any two of these three states wins the White House.

    With 41% of vote counted Trump leads in Pennsylvania 55% vs 43.7%

    With 40% votes counted Trump leads in Michigan 54% vs 44%

    With 50% counted Trump leads in Wisconsin 51% vs 47.4%

    Trump only has to win 2 of these 3 and he is in like Flynn.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Menes
  90. AP says:
    @Menes

    He’ll probably get in if he only carries PA of those three (assuming he wins NC, OH, FL, etc.).

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Menes
  91. Menes says:

    Meet the new boss, same as the old boss:

  92. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    Fox has called AZ for Biden. How many of the rust states (Blue Wall states traditionally) does Trump now need to win? I’m surprised that with a substantial lead in Florida for Trump, it hasn’t officially been called so?

    • Replies: @AP
    , @nickels
  93. Menes says:
    @AP

    He’ll probably get in if he only carries PA of those three

    If he only carries Pennsylvania he only gets to 267 electoral votes. He needs 270. That’s asuming there is no surprise in Nevada.

    If he loses PA and wins MI and WI he gets to 273.

    Pennsylvania race is tightening: With 60% of the vote counted Trump is now at 51.6% vs 47.6%.

    OTOH, his lead has slightly widened in both Michigan and Wisconsin.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Menes
    , @A123
  94. EldnahYm says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    I think total number of immigrants is a better measure than net migration rate. The total number of legal immigrants has declined under Trump, though not by very much. The 2019 number is 1,031,765. The last time we had a number lower than those 2019 numbers was not so long ago: 1,016,518 in 2014. So we’re talking pretty thin gruel for Trump supporters.

    Whether for legal or illegal immigration, it is unclear how much the [rather modest] declines have to do with deliberate policy and also whether the trend would continue into a hypothetical second Trump term. At times the Trump administration has seemed to be pushing increase of “high skilled” immigrants, though there haven’t as yet been settlements for that. Right now there have been suspensions under the justification of COVID health reason. Mixed signals. I am unconvinced by the claim that Trump is working against the enemy.

    https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2017/table1
    https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2019/lawful_permanent_residents_2019.pdf

  95. People are getting excited way too early. This night has just confirmed it will be a razor thin, heavily disputed election. It’s not a Trumpslide.

    On the plus side, probability of 269-269 troll scenarios has gone way up.

    • Replies: @nickels
  96. EldnahYm says:
    @Alexander Turok

    In the event you aren’t just a troll,

    He is a troll.

  97. AP says:
    @Mr. Hack

    If he doesn’t win Nevada (and the loss in AZ suggests he won’t) then he needs any 2 of these: PA, WI, MI, MN). It looks like he won’t get MN so basically 2 of the 3 he won last time.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  98. EldnahYm says:
    @hgv

    Immigrants on average will reliably vote for whoever promises more immigration and more anti-white policies. We have decades of data about this. The presence of minorities and immigrants incentivizes minority radicalization and anti-white hysteria.

    The United States has many problems. If you go and look, you can find many types of problems where recent immigrants and their children are overrepresented. Medical fraud, littering, sexual abuse against children, human trafficking, drug trafficking, are just a few examples.

    Some mestizo identifying as white doesn’t make them high quality. On average all Hispanics are a rather middling people. It is easy to observe the inferiority of “White Hispanics” by looking at how they have run countries like Argentina. You have to be a degenerate to admire what these scum have done.

    Your definition of “high quality” seems to be anyone who can make money in the United States and not engage in serious crime. That is a low standard. It also ignores the impact these people have on the rest of society, and it ignores the fact that discrimination in favor of minorities means minority performance is a flawed metric.

    • Replies: @hgv
  99. nickels says:
    @Mr. Hack

    Most counties in Arizona are still 0% reporting.
    Yavapal, Gila, Navajo, Apache, La Paz.
    Arizona will flip red.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
  100. AP says:
    @nickels

    Those are thinly populated though.

  101. nickels says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Trump has 8 points in MI, 5 in WI, and most counties in Az are still 0% reporting.
    Trump goes 298.

  102. Menes says:
    @Menes

    Pennsylvania race is tightening: With 60% of the vote counted Trump is now at 51.6% vs 47.6%.

    That was wrong. 270towin.com may have made a mistake. Currently they show Trump has widened his lead to 56.7% vs 42% with 57% of the vote counted.

    • Replies: @Menes
  103. A123 says:
    @Menes

    My count is 248 Trump (called states plus AK, MT, IA, GA, NC, ME 1 delegate)

    With the following still TBD delegates:
    — 06 Nevada
    — 10 Wisconsin
    — 16 Michigan
    — 20 Pennsylvania

    — 10 Minnesota (if you want to be ambitious)

    Any pair works except NV+WI only 264. The top 4 (all being led by Trump) would be 300, still highly plausible.

    Alas, my 320 prediction is dead with losses in NH, NM, and most likely AZ.

    The Atlanta Metro area has screwed up again. Given the size of Trump’s lead in Georgia, it seems unlikely to impact the Presidential outcome. However, brace yourself for controversy.

    That is it for tonight from me…

    PEACE 😇

  104. Menes says:
    @Menes

    Google is faster and more reliable. Here is their latest:

    Pennsylvania 62% counted, Trump 56.9 vs 41.9

    Wisconsin 78% counted, Trump 51.7 vs 46.8

    Michigan 55% counted, Trump 54 vs 43.9

  105. Mikhail says: • Website

    Art this moment, RT having pretty good analysis of the US election:

    https://www.rt.com/on-air/

  106. EldnahYm says:
    @E. Harding

    A libertarian immigrant arguing in defense of immigrants. I’m shocked. Immigration is the biggest issue because it has the biggest impact on long-term trends in a country. It’s hard to undo biology.

    I don’t know why people think failing to invent Bio-Leninism is some sort of accomplishment, or some kind of argument in your favor. Minorities have invented very little at all compared to white people in the last 500 years or so.

    I call bullshit on your claim that minorities aren’t the main beneficiaries of bio-Leninism. Bio-Leninism is the main reason these people are let into foreign countries at all. Indian Americans for example are a high earning group, largely because of H1B and similar gibs. Blacks from the Caribbean and Africa are wildly overrepresented in affirmative action programs.

    The non-Jewish immigrants mostly seem to be either puppets or silent.

    All the affirmative action beneficiaries are just passively accepting what the Jews give them. They have no real interest in the matter. Right.

  107. nickels says:

    Biden delivering his Deep State coup speech right now.
    They plan to print fake ballots to try and steal PA.
    If Trump actually wins tonight and claims it, Biden will say it was a fake election and will sic the BLM proxy army on every city.
    All according to the slimey deep state plan.
    So predictable.

  108. EldnahYm says:
    @Europe Europa

    In contrast being white in the US is increasingly seen as a negative thing, associated with things like “racism”, and notions of unearned privilege. I get the impression that being associated with the old WASP colonial ruling class is seen as doubly negative.

    If the US becomes like Brazil this makes me think that its ruling class would be more likely to be made up of high IQ non-whites, like Chinese, Indians and white Hispanics than actual whites per se.

    You’re talking as if the U.S.(or the world for that matter) has standards that apply to every one. A standard conservative mistake. In fact, selected members of the old WASP colonial ruling class need only to agitate in favor of anti-white policies or whatever else their Jew donors want, and they will continue to be electable. Different groups of minorities are mostly unable to work together, so they need liberal whites to hold the coalition of the fringes together.

    What may happen is some members of the elite will themselves race mix(like what has occurred with the Bush family and Hispanics). But this is the same phenomenon as occurs in Brazil.

    By the way, the Chinese are never going to be members of the elite. Chinese immigrants tend to be small business people and high skilled workers from southern China. They do ok financially, but as successful grifters they are radically underachieving. Chinese and northeast Asians in general simply don’t have the social skills or the chutzpah that other groups have. A look at the history of Chinese in southeast Asia will show this.

  109. Mr. Hack says:
    @AP

    It’s awfully strange that Fox, considered the one network that has been traditionally felt to be a “conservative” outpost in a large sea of liberal news sources, called this one so very early in favor of Biden? There were still over a million votes to be counted, especially the ones placed today at the voting centers. All of the outlying districts, that have all been looked upon as conservative areas weren’t even included. Very, very strange?……..

  110. Mr. Hack says:
    @nickels

    Yes indeed, and as I’ve already pointed out, these areas altogether totaled about 1 million votes. Why has Fox called this one so soon?

  111. hgv says:
    @EldnahYm

    You are right, there are risks and drawbacks. About the hispanics: I know institutional arguments are not appreciated here (and I myself am.not a big believer in them), but in this case they can explain something: the LATAM states were less consolidated and more unstable since the beginning. And you yourself say that the population is “middling”; one would have to be a Napoleon to make great powers out of those states in these conditions. In the much better US system, those elites would be automatically more productive.
    About their race: I cant be sure now, but I really believe that a good chunk of those hispanics in US are white (might be only a third probably, and not half of them). Who, despite their flaws, still cause much less mayhem compared to blacks.

  112. Have they started with the excuses for why the polls were wrong yet?

  113. LondonBob says:

    Twitter starting to censor.

  114. When Georgia shut down last night with 91% counted, Trump had a lead of 118,000.

    Looking at the 2 main counties of Atlanta, Fulton (72%) and DeKalb (80%) where Biden has an overwhelming advantage, it looks like Biden will make up the difference in those two counties alone: based on current voting in those counties, remaining votes will be +52,000 in DeKalb and +72,000 in DeKalb.

    If Trump loses Georgia AND Nevada, he can’t get to 270.

  115. @Dmitry

    …incompetent management of coronavirus pandemic in the USA.

    You can’t manage something that doesn’t exist.

    The effects of the coronavirus are caused by autoimmune reactions; basically, broken immune systems in some people.

    And the medical establishment does what? Mandate fucking masks? Seriously?

    These people need to be rounded up into gas chambers for their crimes against humanity. This is way worse than the leeches and bleeding perpetrated by medieval “doctors”.

    • Replies: @Max Payne
  116. Max Payne says:
    @anonymous coward

    MDs… Taking 8 years to do what is essentially a 3.5 year college diploma. Not the sharpest tools in the shed. But boy are they easy to swindle if you are in investments.

  117. Blue Wisconsin, by a hair. You’re welcome. My little vote from China made a difference, lmao!

  118. Wolfar says:

    What’s up with Wisconsin? I’m paying attention all the time, Trump’s leading comfortably and then there’s an update, throwing tallies at 95% counted and a huge surprise:

    Trump +35k, Biden +140k.

    In this fateful late update, 80% went for Biden and 20% for Trump. I don’t know what kind of ballot they are counting by this time, but they surely came in handy.

  119. Hartnell says:

    Yeah it is bad about Wisconsin. However only 95% of the votes have been counted there so maybe Donald can catch up.

    At this stage, if he loses Wisconsin, the only path to victory he has at this stage is Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pensylvania. He has to win all four in my opinion in order to defeat Biden legitimately.

    He can live without Nevada and Arizona.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
  120. Hartnell says:
    @Wolfar

    Maybe the postal ballots are starting to come through? That is something Trump has been complaining about and he has a point. There was a prediction a while back that stated Trump could very well win the election and yet the postal ballots would finish him off.

    Obviously something Trump is going to fight back with when it comes to the supreme Court. Considering how close this thing is, Trump still has a dog left in this fight.

  121. @Wolfar

    Expat absentee and mail-ins are last. My county had a couple dozen Biden votes before my absentee ballot and the mail ins arrived.

  122. Ano4 says:


    [MORE]

    An orange folder full of empty white pages. Folded both ways and put aside…

  123. Wolfar says:

    Another strange update, this time for Michigan:

    NYT: 80% counted
    Trump 2.334k
    Biden 2.137k

    According to NYT, Trump is leading by 4.3% points.

    AP: 87% counted
    Trump 2.334k (+0)
    Biden 2.269k (+132k)

    According to AP, Trump’s leading by only 1.4% now.

  124. AP says:
    @Wolfar

    They were counting Milwaukee last so a Democratic surge was inevitable ( which would make cheating possible but not necessary).

  125. I have no idea whether there was fraud or not, but someone should apply the same statistical methods and criteria they use to ‘show’ that Russian and Bolivian elections are fraudulent.

    • Agree: Ano4, Blinky Bill
  126. Wolfar says:

    Twitter user observed the same oddity in Wisconsin that I did.

    Trump: 1.539k
    Biden: 1.430k
    Trump was leading by 3.7% or 109k votes.

    After leading all day, a miracle seems to happen late in the tally count:
    Trump: 1.567k (+28k)
    Biden: 1.576k (+146k)

    Of the 174k votes added to the tally, 16% went to Trump and 84% to Biden. For a battleground state, this stark difference stands out, despite any divide there may be where these ballots came from.

  127. JL says:
    @Philip Owen

    Way to go Phil, continuing a long tradition of being wrong. If you’re gonna be wrong, be wrong early, and be wrong often.

    • Disagree: Supply and Demand
    • LOL: Thorfinnsson
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  128. That the polling having quality issues is one thing, the betting market is also a mess is quite disappointing, even though it should not have been to anyone who paid even a little attention to the history of the stock markets.

  129. In the meantime, the needle has popped back to Biden in Georgia. I knew those rural returns looked kind of weak relative to the Kemp-Abrams race, and the Kemp-Abrams race was primarily why I could not draw a winning map for Trump in Georgia:

    see also my comment a couple days ago:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-elections-pundits-bet-on-biden-fwiw/#comment-4260938

    The Georgia reasoning is actually very simple. The state went from this:

    https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=13&f=0&off=0&elect=0

    to this

    https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=0

    in just two years, and that’s with much stronger Republican rural support, already at over 90% among Whites even in 2016, and not something that can just be taken for granted in 2020. Imagine what two more years of Trump have done to it, especially given polling evidence that college Whites are the new Hispanics.

    Ultimately, I will probably end up getting two states wrong (FL and NC) due to underestimating LATINOS and failing to do the early vote analysis I did for North Carolina in 2016 because I trusted NYT/Siena to fix their polling errors (they didn’t). Georgia, however, shows that when it comes to elections, sometimes, demographics truly are destiny.

    Biden looks set to win the blue wall, and thus the presidency.

    Trump’s whole presidency shows that even successfully executing the 2012 GOP strategy still doesn’t win you anything if you alienate the White man.

    Also, would anyone have believed this in 2016?

    Zapata County has traditionally voted exactly the same as the Hispanic vote in the national exit poll. And it’s now Trump country. Nate Cohn’s Texas poll was right.

  130. @Hartnell

    the only path to victory he has at this stage is Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pensylvania.

    I think Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada will also work. But I don’t think he will win Michigan, his lead is now down to 27,000, and Wayne County by itself could give Biden an additional 100,000 net.

  131. Hartnell says:

    Considering how late in the day these ballots are coming in, even if Biden ends up winning 1% more, Trump is going to contest the results. He is already setting up the lawyers and is going to scream voter fraud. Considering he selected the new supreme Court justice, if this goes down the wall, Trump could still win by the SC ruling in his favour…

    Obviously this will start off the biggest libtard shit storm you can imagine. Maybe even a potential secession down the line….

    • Replies: @Supply and Demand
    , @Wolfar
  132. @Hartnell

    The function of the supreme court is to reinforce the legitimacy of the system for midwits, not contest it by siding with Orange Man. They will rubber stamp Biden’s victory, and I suspect Amy & Gorsuch will side with Globalist-in-Chief Roberts.

    We will get a repeat of the “making gays a protected class” case where Kavanaugh is the only one who does not cuck. The ball will be in whitey’s court, and they will proceed to drop it like they always do.

  133. Presently it looks to be a Biden win in a squeaker. That said, the election is not yet over.

    Wisconsin has ~150k votes left to be counted, many of them in rural and northern counties. Milwaukee County is almost fully counted, though on the negative side Dane County is only seven-tenths counted. Trump is only down by 20,000 votes.

    In Minnesota there are ~300k votes remaining, nearly all in rural counties. Trump ran ahead of his 2016 results in most of the suburban counties around Hennepin.

    Nevada has ~400k votes left to be counted with Trump only down by 8,000 votes.

    Arizona likewise has ~400k votes left to be counted with Trump down by ~90k votes.

    Trump needs to hold PA and MI and flip ONE of these states to win. It’s possible.

    And for maximum seethe, he could fail to flip these states but win one EV from Maine (lots of rural votes not yet counted) for a 269 – 269 tie.

    • Thanks: LondonBob
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  134. Wolfar says:
    @Hartnell

    In-person voting is hard to falsify because you have election workers executing verification & tallying together, so a conspiracy to commit fraud is extremely unlikely, and if it happens it must be local by design.

    Mail-in voting is a different beast. You have the problem of vote harvesting (a Dem specialty), and you have the problem of casting ballots for people who didn’t vote. All you need for the latter is a reliable voter database, which doesn’t take many insiders to be honest – indeed a single rogue could obtain the registration data for an entire state. Mail-in real verification, that is, contacting the voter, is not an easy task. The ballot itself is, as can be deduced, no proof.

    These mailed ballots favoring Biden by a factor of 4~7 to 1 in battleground states, where by definition elections are close, flipping states where Trump led through the day and night, are IMO ridden with fraud.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
  135. @Thorfinnsson

    NOTE: Actually simply holding PA and MI would be enough provided there’s no Biden surprise in Georgia or elsewhere.

    PA looks reasonably solid with a 700k Trump lead (though not insurmountable), but MI is iffier as a lot of ballots are left in Wayne County. However black turnout is down and MI has a lot of rural ballots left as well.

    WI and NV are also strong candidates to flip to Trump. NV was Biden +23k five hours ago and is Biden +8k now.

    • Replies: @AP
  136. Ano4 says:

    Trump has made an announcement:

  137. AP says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Big Democratic Philly, still largely uncounted, is prime territory for faking.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    , @LondonBob
  138. @AP

    I’m more concerned about the mail-in ballots, more than three-quarters of which have broken for Biden thus far. Pennsylvania also has a Jewish Democratic Attorney General.

    Biden is now also up in Michigan by 10,000 votes, and Democrats control the statewide offices there.

    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
  139. LondonBob says:
    @AP

    Surely too much ahead, would be too obvious. Trump’s only hope is PA, likely, and AZ, not impossible.

    • Replies: @Matra
  140. Matra says:
    @LondonBob

    Surely too much ahead, would be too obvious

    I don’t think the Dems care too much about that anymore. They may now be at the stage where they are confident enough that making it obvious will further empower them by completely demoralising the Right. Besides, with the MSM under their control they can pretty much create their own reality anyway.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  141. Ano4 says:

    So basically, they just stopped counting and started dumping ballots for Biden.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-surprise-ballot-dumps-behind-lead-changes

    Hilarious!

    • Agree: LondonBob
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  142. @Matra

    Pennsylvania does not necessarily require fraud for The Enemy to win. There are about one million ballots outstanding, and if those break four-fifths for Biden he will win the state. If only three-quarters Trump wins. Many though not all are mail-in ballots, the initial mail-in ballots were 78% Biden.

    Of course there is a strong possibility of a massive drop from Philadelphia comparable to what we saw in Wayne County, MI. Similar risk exists in GA.

  143. Wisconsin with 97% reporting and a 20,000 Biden lead will go for Biden.

    Michigan with 92% reporting, and half of the uncounted votes in Wayne County (67% Biden) will go for Biden.

    So to win Trump would need:

    Pennsylvania (?)

    North Carolina (likely)

    Georgia (93% reporting 87,000 Trump lead; 50-50 at best)

    Nevada (unlikely)

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  144. @for-the-record

    Trump is only down 8,000 votes in Nevada. The overnight trend from Maricopa county suggests a possible net gain of 108,000 votes in Arizona for Trump. Thus these two states are in play.

    Michigan is almost certainly not in play at the ballot, but could be won by lawyers.

    I give Biden a seven-tenths chance of emerging as President (if he’s still alive in January).

    I would also like to give Nemets credit for correctly forecasting a “frontlash” in Minnesota (contrary to my incorrect prediction) even if his blackpill take was otherwise wrong.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  145. @for-the-record

    Frantically updating my spreadsheet to determine whether I have a net loss or gain from betting on swing states.

  146. Dumbo says:

    Covid is a lie, but it was accepted by all, so it is possible that this election is also a lie, and also accepted by all or many.

    It is VERY weird that all battleground states where Trump was winning very suddenly flipped for Biden. Something unheard of.

    “44 Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.

    45 And because I tell you the truth, ye believe me not.”

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  147. OK in Michigan and Wisconsin some guy named Don Blankenship won 0.15% of the vote. Wasn’t he one of the announcers for MXC (Most Extreme Elimination Challenge) along with Guy LeDouche? Why wasn’t LeDouche on the ticket? They could have broken 1%!

  148. @Thorfinnsson

    Pennsylvania also has a Jewish Democratic Attorney General

    I must say this , even as a guy with limited interest and small level of knowledge on American elections- it’s diabolical finding out how many Jews are randomly in all the big positions for this election

    Looking at the election it appears Pennsylvania is an important state – so I learn today that the Governor of that state criticising Trump for his election counting comments is…….Tom Wolf- name must be a jew,
    I never gave notice to the poll numbers as they are obviously fake and I expected the same as in 2016, but the 2 most common poll conductors in America quoted by everyone today is a guy called Nate Silver – must be a jew, and another clown ….Frank Luntz- jew.

    Head of Federal Election Commision in the USA? Naturally, is (((Ellen Weintraub))). Again , most of these names I’m just learning today from looking at the election reaction.

    I’ve got zero interest or knowledge of the congress elections, so who is the random name that comes on my TL about being elected ? Mark Kelly, ex-astronaut married of course…….to a jew- the one who was shot into a coma. Who is the next journalist on my TL? Jake Tapper – Mr Jew

    I can understand why people may find it “interesting” or “exotic” the probably first female vice-President and the first non-white VP…….”coincidentally” this African/Indian is also married to a jew-jew-jew.

    Should I dare to look at the names of the Supreme Court judges, particularly on the Democrats side?

    It’s just jews, and more jews and even more Jews. How can even polling be dominated by Jews? I say this as a guy perfectly fine and accepting of jewish achievement disproportionate to their population % and positive contribution to the world ………just not this total, filthy cabal.

  149. Dmitry says:
    @AP

    prevented “refugees” from coming to the USA.

    If I was American, I would believe a restriction of “refugees” arriving in America (if due to Trump), as a positive point. But it would be difficult to argue in unambiguous or objective way about the benefit. I assume many American voters will have a different preference and belief about “refugees” (even with scare quotes), and support their arrival.

    also kept us out of wars.

    This would be quite an objectively or unambiguously good point for Trump for vast majority of people. But this seems partly due to luck in the international situation, rather than specific decisions of Trump that were different to Obama. I’m not sure Trump has been more cautious internationally around conflict zones, than Obama was, or would be Clinton?

  150. It is not clear who wins in the end. We might still avoid the disgrace of having corrupt senile walking dead elected and becoming the laughingstock of the world. I can’t imagine a normal sane person even considering Biden seriously: he is a good candidate for a nursing home, but not for the White house. Yet half of the country apparently voted for it. Like I said before, saying that every nation has the government it deserves should be considered rabidly anti-American.

    It is clear that this was the most fraudulent election in the US history. Both MI and WI were as clear cases of electoral fraud as Lukashenko’s 80%. Needless to say, Dem fraudsters are no better than Luka. I hope that Trump isn’t Gore, won’t fold easily and will fight fraudsters to the end.

    The behavior of the US elites suggests that they degenerated even more than I suspected. I can understand them using goons to trash Libya or Ukraine: after all, those places are far away and most Americans can’t find them on the map. But it takes incredible morons to encourage goons to trash your own country, the one you ostensibly want to govern. No wonder their chosen figurehead is a moron with Alzheimer’s.

    The Empire is going down the drain. The only difference is the rate: relatively slow decline with Trump, hopefully w/o any major wars, and much faster decline with Alzheimer-in-chief, possibly a catastrophic crash if his puppet masters use that senile half-corpse to start a war.

    • Agree: Ano4, A123
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Philip Owen
  151. A123 says:
    @AnonFromTN

    It is clear that this was the most fraudulent election in the US history. Both MI and WI were as clear cases of electoral fraud as Lukashenko’s 80%. Needless to say, Dem fraudsters are no better than Luka.

    Not even Luka would have tried this… They simply added ~150K votes to Biden in Michigan. A step change for one candidate while all others remain unchanged is simply impossible.

    PEACE 😇

  152. @Dumbo

    No mystery. Democrats took precautions against the virus and voted by post. Republics showed their disbelief in the deadliness of the virus and voted in person which is what Trump told them to do. Not just because of SARS2 but he always planned to cancel postal votes.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    , @A123
  153. @Philip Owen

    Ukrainian joke about voting in person.
    An elderly guy comes to the voting place and asks:
    – Did my wife vote?
    – Yes, here is her signature.
    – Dash it, I am late again. See, she died in 2012, but votes every time, so I hope to meet her here.

    • LOL: Philip Owen
  154. @AnonFromTN

    Trump is the peace candidate it cancels his personality, incompetence and erratic politics. Biden comes over as a safe pair of hands, a cog in the machine.

  155. @Philip Owen

    The statistical analysis concluded that the first-round victory of Evo Morales was statistically
    improbable and the result of a massive and inexplicable increase in the number of votes for MAS in thefinal 5% of the votes counted. Without this increase, although the MAS would have obtained the
    majority of votes, it would not have had the 10% difference needed to avoid the second round. This
    increase came with noticeable breaks in the trendlines of votes for the ruling party and for Comunidad
    Ciudadana (CC), at both the national and departmental levels. The size of the breaks is extremely
    unusual and calls into question the credibility of the process.

    Page 8 of the OAS report into the Bolivian election

    https://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Audit-Report-EN-vFINAL.pdf

  156. A123 says:
    @Philip Owen

    Let me Fix That For You:

    No mystery:
    — Republicans wanted a fraud free election and voted in person.
    — Biden told voters to use mail in ballots not because of WUHAN-19, but because the Democrats always planned on fabricating ballots to be illegally added to the postal flow.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Philip Owen
  157. @Philip Owen

    Biden comes over as a safe pair of hands, a cog in the machine.

    Have to agree here: Biden is about as smart and as alive as a cog.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  158. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ano4

    It’s not very ‘hilarious’ but really quite sad. Mysteriously finding 138,000 enveloped votes all going for Biden is evidence of massive fraud and should be investigated and those responsible severely punished.

    • Agree: AnonFromTN, AltanBakshi
  159. Ano4 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    This is absolutely hilarious because US of A keep lecturing people all over the world about how to enact fraud-proof, free and democratic elections. And then this kind of thing happens for everyone to see.

    I’ve shown the election graphs from Wisconsin and Michigan to my teenage son, who has no knowledge about elections in general, and he immediately understood that it was a fraud, plain and simple. But American MSM pretend not to see what is happening: a coup by the American Deep State against president Trump. He shared it with his friends online with whom he was discussing the American election. Today my son has learned that democracy can be twisted beyond recognition. It is an important lesson.

    American democracy is now the laughingstock of the world. And I personally laugh when I hear a good joke or see a good prank. The American people have been pranked and I find it very funny, although in a sinister way.

    Speaking of jokes, do you seriously think that the Democrats will allow Republicans to contest the vote and win the election through the judiciary procedures?

    Now I understand why the gentlemen on this photograph look so puzzled. They didn’t expect it to end this way…

    😁

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  160. @Mr. Hack

    Mysteriously finding 138,000 enveloped votes all going for Biden is evidence of massive fraud and should be investigated and those responsible severely punished.

    No doubt about it. Yet fraud was a constant feature of American elections, presidential and others. Suffice it to remember FL 2000, where Gore won, but the victory was given to Bush Jr by his brother.

    To the best of my knowledge, no fraudster in the US elections was ever punished in over 200 years of history.

    • Replies: @another anon
  161. haha, looks like stable genius strategy of denying and ignoring the threat and killing his own voters came back to logical conclusion of biting his own ass in the end, lol 🙂

    In such the election where even merely dozens of thousands votes may matter, he did everything he could to achieve just official death count nearing 240 k, with excess deaths way over 300 k, while quite significant portion of them may have been careless trumpian covidiots. What’s even more funny, with his own propaganda crusade against early voting, he ensured that those fallen before Nov. 3 never really could become his real votes his is so sorely needing right now.

  162. @Mr. Hack

    STFU Mr Hack. Stop acting as a disrespectful pr*ck. Mr Biden’s son, Hunter has done much more for the economy of Ukraine , shown much more energy to promote, invest in and engage the great human capital that exists in Ukraine (with his excessive use of Lvov prostitutes) …….than the entire Trump administration has done in 4 years!

    Hunter is responsible for stimulating much of the nighttime economy of Ukraine- even going as far as to use notes as high as $50

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  163. Menes says: • Website
    @Menes

    Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania up for grabs. Whoever wins any two of these three states wins the White House.

    Well guess what, Biden has won Michigan and Wisconsin. Meet the new boss, not the same as the old boss:

    Trump can win the 3 states where he still holds a (precarious) lead: Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, and he still loses. Biden wins the states where he has led from the beginning: Arizona and Nevada and gets exactly the 270 electoral votes he needs to get in the Oval Office.

    This fact has become clear: Biden has a large advantage in the later votes counted. So he can even win Georgia and Pennsylvania, though he doesn’t need to. The final score could very well be Biden 306 vs 232 Trump.

    • Replies: @Menes
  164. Unironically, only thing that matters.

  165. Mr. Hack says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    If you can’t afford the $50/hr hookers that Biden’s son can, you might want to look into the ones in Russia, that where I’ve read you can rent one out for $40/day. It’s quite a growing business within Russia, and growing every day. Although, from the sound of your name, I don’t know if its a hooker or a john that you need nowadays to fulfill your exotic sexual appetites. I’ll let you figure it out.

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/08/20/russia-now-has-more-prostitutes-than-doctors-farmers-and-firemen-combined-and-other-neglected-russian-stories-euromaidan-press/

    • Troll: AltanBakshi
  166. @AnonFromTN

    Yea. When were American elections supposed to be honest and fair?
    No one here remembers 2000? No one remembers 1960? No one remembers 1876?

    https://www.quora.com/What-was-the-most-corrupt-presidential-election-in-American-history

  167. Menes says: • Website
    @Menes

    Biden’s victory is a victory for diversity, for science and technology, for the environment, for renewable energy, for the safety net, for human rights, for social justice, for universal healthcare, for affordable education, for criminal justice reform, for metropolitan America…

    • Agree: Supply and Demand
    • LOL: Mr. Hack
    • Troll: AnonFromTN
  168. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ano4

    I tend to agree with you. It’s much more clear and clean/cut right from the start in Russia. Putin choses who his “technical opponents” will be and how many votes each of them is allowed to accumulate, and then it’s quickly over – no fuss, no muss. And everybody is happy with the results – from the face of it, a much better system. 🙂

    • Replies: @Ano4
  169. Ano4 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    A lot of Russians have been healed from their democratic illusions in 1993 and 1996 to much Western applause.

    When Yeltsin shot the Parliament point blank and then stole the elections from Uncle Zu, while all the democratic governments everywhere sang laudatory praises, every intelligent Russian understood that democracy is a scam.

    The difference between Russians and Americans is that at least Russians learn something from their experiences.

    🙂

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
  170. Ano4 says:
    @Menes

    Welcome to the Shining Tomorrows Comrade!

  171. AP says:
    @Ano4

    The difference between Russians and Americans is that at least Russians learn something from their experiences.

    Being fat, happy, and distracted by entertainment tends to encourage obliviousness. Russian nineties taught bitter lessons.

    • Agree: Ano4
  172. @Mr. Hack

    you might want to look into the ones in Russia, that where I’ve read you can rent one out for $40/day. It’s quite a growing business within Russia, and growing every day.

    If you are going to BS, then at least use a source for semi-credible BS, not the worthless lying garbage POS euromaidanpress rat excrement. Bill Clinton is more truthful about his lovelife than any western-funded Ukrop “media”

    NB- basically all Ukrainian women outside of ex USSR refer to themselves as, get referred to by westerners as , and speak……Russian. This may explain your ridiculous confusion

    Although, from the sound of your name, I don’t know if its a hooker or a john that you need nowadays to fulfill your exotic sexual appetites.

    FFS – that is Ms Karlin-Gerard account you dimwit Mr Hack. She, not Trump and his biggest supporters ,was the original victim of big tech censorship when Karlin eliminated her in cold blooded fashion

  173. Mr. Hack says:

    NB- basically all Ukrainian women outside of ex USSR refer to themselves as, get referred to by westerners as , and speak……Russian. This may explain your ridiculous confusion

    I’m tempted to castigate all Russian speaking women as prostitutes, but that would be foolish and childish of me, and certainly not true, as I know several such ladies including some that go to my church that are quite virtuous and good individuals. Also, I have some really nice relatives in Ukraine that usually communicate in Russian. That’s the kind of muck one might get involved in slinging when dealing with a creepy guy like you. 🙁

    FFS – that is Ms Karlin-Gerard account you dimwit Mr Hack. She, not Trump and his biggest supporters ,was the original victim of big tech censorship when Karlin eliminated her in cold blooded fashion.

    So you feel somehow slighted that Karlin has managed to curtail your use of a moniker that reflects your transsexual lifestyle? I don’t think that you’ll garner much sympathy from anybody here at this blog site. I’ve noticed that most readers of this blog find you to be a rather demented and obnoxious sort not worthy of much attention, except perhaps for some comic relief when reading one of your dim-witted remarks.

  174. I voted for Joe Biden and am happy he won. You guys just sound like racist boomer sore losers.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  175. nickels says:

    Arizona to flip and Trump to win despite the most massive voter fraud in the history of the US.

  176. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ano4

    Democracy isn’t a sham, it’s the people who try in implement it that make a mockery out of it. Two steps forward and one step back and over time things should straighten out for the better.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  177. Pericles says:

    So, would international observers call these elections free and fair? Lol.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  178. Jazman says:
    @Menes

    From what planet you are

  179. @Menes

    You forgot “for anal fisting”.

  180. @Mr. Hack

    euromaidanpress.com

    Wow, sounds like a very credible and legitimate source!

    P.S. They neglected to mention that 90% of Russian prostitutes are from Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP
  181. Ano4 says:
    @Pericles

    OSCE says the only problems of these elections were COVID and Trump. Other than that the elections were perfect.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/international-observers-us-election-trump-trust

    That’s the OSCE that monitors also the frontline in Donbass…

  182. Ano4 says:
    @Mr. Hack

    That’s what they say about Communism too.

    🙂

    • LOL: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  183. Ano4 says:

    They will not let Trump challenge the outcome of the elections. His legal action will be ignored and/or vilified by the MSM and silenced by the judicial system.

    Already started:

    https://www.propublica.org/article/if-trump-tries-to-sue-his-way-to-election-victory-heres-what-happens

    US of A can no longer be reasonably considered a democracy.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  184. @Ano4

    US of A can no longer be reasonably considered a democracy.

    Why in any democracy two times in a row loser of total vote count should be declared an overall winner? 😉

    So, yes, USA cannot be longer considered democracy, where overall majority matters, since…well…the creation of current electoral system hundreds of years ago, lol.

    • Troll: Kent Nationalist
  185. AP says:
    @anonymous coward

    P.S. They neglected to mention that 90% of Russian prostitutes are from Ukraine.

    Specifically, Donbas:

    http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=7573

    [MORE]

    “Lola, my whore, came from Severodonetsk, a toxic dump in the Lugansk oblast, the Russified east of Ukraine.I rented her late on Sunday, November 28th — the same day that the Ukrainian governors of several pro-Yanukovich regions were holding a congress in Severodonetsk, threatening to create a breakaway southeastern Ukrainian republic if the “orange” revolution in Kiev succeeded. It was one of those coincidences that writers invent to give a sordid story some relevance — but invention in this case isn’t necessary. We’re talking about whores here, folks. Any john in Moscow knows that Yanukovich country, the pro-Russian southeast of Ukraine, is the snapper-basket of Europe, the white world’s most fertile breeding ground for whores, the Golden Triangle of prostitution production.”

  186. Mr. Hack says:
    @Ano4

    Well, they’re very similar, err I mean that they’re the exact opposites, what do yo expect?:

    Under the capitalist (democratic) system it’s known that “man exploits man” whereas under the communist system it’s the other way around.

    . 🙂

    • Agree: Ano4
  187. @Supply and Demand

    Racism is objectively correct and highly desirable. Therefore you should not use it as a term of disparagement as you have just done here. The only reason people claim that racism is negative is overwhelming social pressure. That in turn suggests that you are just a normie.

  188. @Thorfinnsson

    I am a racist. Did you think I meant that as a pejorative? I’d encourage you to check my post history. I hate both niggers and Scots-Irish.

    • Thanks: Thorfinnsson
  189. AP says:

    Because America is a federal state where smaller stages are weighed more heavily somewhat in order to insure that their interests are not completely ignored by more populous ones.

  190. @Thorfinnsson

    Quite maximalist position, in my opinion racism is like salt, without it you die, too much and you die. Theres a huge difference between “those people cant integrate to our culture” and “herr Gruppenfuhrer were out of Zyklon B.”

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • LOL: Ano4
    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
  191. @AltanBakshi

    herr Gruppenfuhrer we’re out of Zyklon B

    But if they run out, how can they ensure their clothes are free from lice?

  192. @AP

    So if Trump will lose, it may be argued that US is no longer such kind of federal state, but guess it sounds kinda boring and less incendiary than dramatic statements about the overall failure of democracy there 😉

    • Replies: @AP
  193. Someone in this world just stuck their head out for Trump. He might live to regret it …

  194. Ano4 says:

    This has been published on July 6, 2020 at 3:18 p.m. in the WaPo:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/06/what-if-trump-loses-insists-he-won/

    A scenario for the things to come?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  195. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    What’s the point of making a statement like this? Is there anything to gain?

    • Replies: @Gerard-Mandela
  196. @Ano4

    The situation on the ground is quite different. In fact, Trump won and insists that he won. Dems engaged in massive fraud to pretend that he lost and to push senile walking dead down our throats.

    BTW, WaPo, like NYT, wasn’t caught telling the truth for many years now.

    • Agree: nickels
    • Replies: @Ano4
  197. AP says:
    @sudden death

    No, it means that Biden was able to overcome the trap of just running up vote totals in a limited number of states by winning some of the ones in other areas (likely with some administrative assistance in some states).

  198. Ano4 says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Doesn’t the fact that Pres. Trump won the vote make the described scenario even more plausible?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  199. nickels says:

    Crucial moment coming in the color revolution.
    Biden and deep state will push to get an official 270 votes.
    Of course this is on the shoulders of MASSIVE voter fraud.
    Trump will contest and pursue legal challenges, but the ENTIRE media complex will come at him and claim he is trying to steal the election and be a facist. Antifa and BLM will hit the streets.
    Violence against Trump supporters is about to become the norm.
    This will all HAPPEN VERY FAST. It has to happen fast because if it is allowed to happen slowly the truth will come out and the challenges will be validated.
    Be prepared.
    Either stand against it or die.
    Attempts to hide from it will not succeed.
    Weakness is not a refuge.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  200. @AP

    Because America is a federal state where smaller states are weighed more heavily somewhat in order to insure that their interests are not completely ignored by more populous ones.

    LOL……typical American deluded BS ( though an upgrade on your fantasist freakshow abnormal pseudo-Ukrop BS)

    This whole system of electoral college votes in place of Popular vote was done only because of the acceptance that mass corruption and mass falsification of votes in America was a certainty in it’s entire history, not a possibility, because US has always been inherently corrupt you idiot.
    EC reduces chance of corruption more than one big popular vote.

    It’s only a side-effect that neither candidates appear to go much to California or New York…..because they don’t appear to go much to New Hampshire, Hawaii, Rhode Island or those places either to campaign you cretin.

    New , big, expanding , frontier country ( still applying to time when US was just what is now North-East US) with lots of different European ethnicities recently arriving at the same time in an era before masscommunication….. are conditions perfect for mass falsifications and useless for stopping fraud if one big popular vote was done.

    It’s always amusing when cretinous Americans try to dishonestly psycho-analysise the mind of Founding Fathers or other historic officials as to why they made a decision…..this “vision to let the smaller states be competitive against the big ones” is total nonsense.

    • Replies: @AP
  201. @Shortsword

    What’s the point of making a statement like this? Is there anything to gain?

    because Melania Trump is Slovenian.

    Maybe there is some Indian international solidarity to Harris also? Indonesians with Obama too? ( he was good at getting American investment into Indonesian economy, which has performed very good in the last decade)

  202. @TheTotallyAnonymous

    No – for me it is a smart decision. He loses nothing, could gain alot ( or maybe Slovenia already has in the last 4 years from American investment because of the link to Trump’s wife)- and he looks weak and unpatriotic if he doesn’t support the side of Slovenia’s most famous expatriate. Logically it may look strange to support a President just because his wife is from your country….but Slovenia is a beautiful but internationally insignificant country- so it makes perfect sense

  203. @Ano4

    Doesn’t the fact that Pres. Trump won the vote make the described scenario even more plausible?

    That’s if he has balls. Remember how Gore won FL vote in 2000? Having no balls, he just folded, conceding defeat to Bush Jr.

    • Replies: @AP
  204. AP says:
    @Gerard-Mandela

    Adjust your bra, it’s too tight and restricting your ability to breath, not enough oxygen in your blood.

  205. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Trump is no Gore. But he has disadvantages Gore doesn’t have – Gore had all the media behind him. Fortunately much of the US population has tuned out the media, as evidenced by the strong Trump vote.

    • Agree: Dreadilk
  206. @nickels

    Attempts to hide from it will not succeed.

    That depends where you live. Here in TN (and many other states) BLM and Antifa won’t dare show their ugly faces, as bandits will be met with the response they deserve. In contrast, in NYC, Philly, Portland, Seattle, Chicago, or CA big cities resistance is futile (as Borg used to say). These malignant tumors can only be eliminated by a surgery, with a lot of blood spilled. Either we separate from that cancer, or metastases will spread and kill the host (the USA).

  207. @AP

    Fortunately much of the US population has tuned out the media, as evidenced by the strong Trump vote.

    I hope so. Hope springs eternal (доки жию, сподiваюсь).

  208. @AP

    Trump is no Gore. But he has disadvantages Gore doesn’t have – Gore had all the media behind him. Fortunately much of the US population has tuned out the media, as evidenced by the strong Trump vote.

    Errrm no you absurd cretin.

    Media in America is as identical now as it was then- the most popular news television channel in the USA, Fox News ,rabidly supporting Bush then as they do Trump now,and all the other major channels rabidly Democrat and supporting Gore then and portraying Bush as extremely dumb, a fool and possibly corrupt…..much identical to how I assume Trump is portrayed by them now ( except they did not call Bush despotic, as they are probably doing for Trump). If anything, western Democrat friends of mine appear less ashamed of Trump as President then they were of “dumb” George Bush 20 years before.

    As for the “strong Trump vote” – don’t exaggerate you idiot. As in any US “election” , at best case it is 60% and in worst it is 40% for a candidate, or even a 55-45 range…..impossible to call either number a complete ideological annihilation of the other side.

    Anyway, I know you are a fantasist pseudo-Ukrop lunatic ( “Galician-Ukrainian ” culture video……LOL, and seriously WTF?) , but despite the fakery, why is your troll garbage account even supporting Trump? I would need to look at a map to confirm, but even Ano4 going through Ukrainian airspace on his trips between the west and childrens dungeons in Vietnam must have shown more interest in visiting “Ukraine” than Trump has as President or even Obama. The embarrassing sad truth is that Hunter Biden with his $50 dollar notes for Lvov whores, and myself with my work and visits…..have invested more money in this failed state than the entire non-entity nutjob scumbag Banderetard diaspora have done in their entire worthless POS lives.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
  209. Menes says: • Website

    Its going to be over in about 4 hours. Biden is on the verge of winning Pennsylvania. That gets him to 273 or 284 electoral votes, depending on whether you believe CNN or Fox respectively. Biden will then be declared the President-elect by all……except Trump. Will Trump concede defeat or will the Generals have to come and drag him out of the White House?

    You can follow Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania shrinking rapidly here, it updates frequently:

    https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=election+results+2020&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

    Biden is also less than 2000 votes away from victory in Georgia.

    And he is ahead in Arizona and Nevada.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @Menes
  210. @Menes

    Biden will then be declared the President-elect by all……except Trump. Will Trump concede defeat or will the Generals have to come and drag him out of the White House?

    No so fast at all in reality, as if there are plenty of Generals who actually really have the desire or the balls to drag him out? The most charitable interpretation I can find for the Trump family behaviour right now that they are raising the stakes in order to get the promise of legal non persecution in exchange of getting out from White House peacefully and then preparing for rerun in 2024.

    • Agree: Menes
  211. Menes says: • Website
    @Menes

    Biden is on the verge of winning Pennsylvania…..Biden is also less than 2000 votes away from victory in Georgia.

    Sorry, that was not correct. Technically that is more like Biden taking the lead for the first time in those states. Considering the trend is expected to continue when will the networks project Biden the winner?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/05/trump-biden-election-live-updates/

    Pennsylvania’s secretary of state said the commonwealth’s winner could be known as soon as today, and if Joe Biden captures the state, he would win the presidency.

    • Replies: @Menes
  212. Menes says: • Website
    @Menes

    Well, it didn’t happen last night as I predicted, probably because folks had to sleep. But it happened early this morning:

    Decision Desk HQ projects that
    @JoeBiden
    has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.

    Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.

    Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST

    Soon the networks will follow. The election is over. We have a winner.

    Nevada, where Biden has been leading from the beginning, should also be projected for him, for 90% of the uncounted votes are from Democratic strongholds.

    And Biden has turned Georgia blue, he is now leading there as he is in Arizona. Only North Carolina is out of his reach.

  213. Menes says: • Website

    https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-06-20/index.html

    Joe Biden’s presidential campaign is responding to reports that President Donald Trump has no plans to concede the race.

    “As we said on July 19th, the American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House,” campaign spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  214. Ano4 says:
    @Menes

    Now either Trump concedes to the stolen election and goes quietly or there would be social unrest and/or martial law possibly culminating into a civil war.

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