I don’t know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he’s doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the countries with usable statistics.
Anyhow, here is his latest: “Fertility rate by country of birth of the mother in the EU. The overall TFR in a country often hides big differences between natives and migrants. TFRs in Belgium and France would be almost 0.2 children lower without the presence of migrants.”
“For the EU (incl EFTA), it was 1.59 in total, 1.51 (79,3%) for Natives living in their own country , 1.58 (5.8%) for EU citizens living in another EU country than their’s of birth, and 2.26 (14.7%) for non-EU borns.”
During the same year (2017):
Russian TFR was at 1.62 children per woman. I think migrants would make basically no difference, but ethnic Russian TFR would be at around 1.54 children per woman.
US TFR was at 1.76 children per woman in 2017, and 1.67 children per woman amongst whites.
We see a rather interesting development in which the native TFR’s of pretty much everyone in the Greater European world is converging to around the 1.40-1.70 children per woman range (a result of the cultural homogenization I have talked about?).
The main exception is the Med, which forms a distinct cluster, with natives having just 1.25-1.30 children per woman in the four PIGS nations. I imagine this must be largely accounted for by the large drain of young people northwards.