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Dying from Corona in Russia Has Long Been "Optional"
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I don’t have the reputation of someone who stans for Russia’s record on dealing with Corona. I was writing about how Russian official statistics were massively understating Corona mortality more than a year ago, before Western journalists generally noticed it, and followed that theme up in the subsequent months. Ironically, Russia’s development of one of the world’s most effective vaccines, Sputnik V, which boasts an efficacy rate of >90% and has had as international adoption on a level equal to that of the Big Pharma solutions – despite assiduous efforts by the US State Department to torpedo it – has failed to translate into high vaccination rates.

As of the present time, Russia’s 11% vaccination rate lags far behind the Anglo-American (~50%) and EU (~30%) rate, and is comparable only to Bulgaria (11%) so far as EU countries ago, and Japan and South Korea in East Asia (8-11%), which however have been largely successful at containing Corona with traditional measures. China at 28% is far ahead (although Sinopharm has a lower efficacy rate), Brazil and Turkey are a bit ahead, and even India is level pegging. Serbia has been the undisputed star of the vaccination drive relative to its “non-aligned” and middle income status, leveraging Big Pharma, Russia, and China to get the best deal for its citizens. The provision of a choice between Pfizer, Sputnik V, and Sinopharm in Serbia has ensured high vaccination rates amongst all manner of nutjobs who make these kinds of decisions based on their geopolitical preferences.

So is this a resounding failure of the Putin regime?

It would be if this was indeed a failure of vaccome distribution. But I see very few signs that this has been a problem for months. I know that the elderly in Moscow have been getting calls from the clinics they are attached to for months, in which the nurses literally beg them to come in for a Sputnik V shot. If you don’t want to bother with your clinic, you can drop by any one of dozens of locations in shopping centers and parks in Moscow. All that is required is to provision your passport and you are eligible for a shot on the spot, no questions asked, with the results later appearing on Gosuslugi (the electronic state ID registrar) as a proof of vaccination. If you don’t like Sputnik V for whatever reason, you now get the choice of getting the Vector Institute’s EpiVacCorona instead. You even get a free ice cream for your trouble.

Corona vaccination point in GUM, the central shopping arcade by Red Square. Peeking inside, I noted that queues were non-existent.

And before the usual suspects pipe up that it is Moscow/Saint-Petersburg monopolizing all the vaccines, that is obviously not true either. It was an accurate rejoinder several months ago, but today, Moscow is in 33rd place by vaccination rate (!) across Russia’s regions. It is actually remote places like Chukotka and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug that have some of the highest rates, while many relatively poor regions like Belgorod oblast and Mordovia are also ahead of Moscow. Clearly, vaccination rates are no longer determined by distribution bottlenecks, but by regional policies and local populations’ relative level of anti-vax sentiment.

As such, dying from Corona in Russia is now “optional”, and in many regions, has already been so for months.

The core reason while vaccination rates remain low is now clearly dominated by the fact that the post-Soviet environment is one of the world’s most ideologically anti-vaxx. In anecdotal terms, this became clear to me when the same elderly person whom I know has been receiving calls from his/her clinic to get Sputnik V became convinced that it is a Putin plot to cull Russian pensioners (sic). This seems to be a common view amongst that demographic. Communists tend to be some of the most active anti-vaxx agitators in Russia, so it is morbidly amusing in a way how they are helping kill off what remains of their fading electorate. However, the anti-Putin liberals, who until a few months ago mounted a propaganda campaign against Sputnik V (either on instruction from their Western handlers, or because they feel an uncontrollable urge to smear and malign anything Russian, or possibly a combination of both), have certainly not helped matters either. While most of them ended up vaccinated with Sputnik V anyway – these people might be anti-Russian ideologues, but they are not stupid, and do like to travel with as few problems as possible – the consequences of their black PR campaign probably continue to residually influence those older Russians who are “slower” on the uptake and not wise to their tricks.

Be that as it may, though, there’s clearly a difference between being in the Corona demographic risk group and dying because you do not have access to a vaccine because of state distribution failure, and dying because you are too lazy, paranoid, and/or have had your brain destroyed by conspiracy theories to get vaccinated. These people’s obstinacy makes life modestly more uncomfortable than it has to be (e.g. I resent being vaccinated and still being formally obligated to wear a mask on the Metro and other public indoor places). But the key point is that to the extent they now die of Corona, it is now through their own conscious choices – that is, it is now more of a Darwin Award than a tragedy. If one is of a cynical disposition, one might even salute their unwitting sacrifice for the Russian budget and pensions system.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Corona, Russia 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. Obviously not getting vaccinated is dumb from a selfish point of view.
    But it is unpleasantly selfish too.

    90% efficacy means that 10% of those vaccinated are still vulnerable. Not getting vaccinated and not contributing to the herd effect is putting even the vaccinated elderly at risk.

  3. @michael droy

    Sputnik prevents even minor illness in 90% of cases, and both death and hospitalisation in 100%. Immunity, unlike sex, is non-binary.

    • Replies: @melanf
  4. I wonder how many people are mistakenly convinced that they had Covid and conclude that they wouldn’t benefit from the vaccine?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  5. Is there any uptake of ivermectin in Russia?

    The evidence for its efficacy seems to be mounting.

    • Replies: @ravin' lunatic
  6. SafeNow says:

    In the U.S., the phrase universally used by the media and get-vaccinated campaigns is “shots into arms.” I wonder how many people, upon hearing “arm,” imagine, in their mind’s eye, “arm.” As in a blood draw at the lab; an IV; a painful piercing of the antecubital fossa. Ouch. Yuck. Why not “shots into shoulders”? Lest you think that the above ridiculously under-estimates the medical sophistication of Americans, remember, prescription bottles of pills must now say “take by mouth.” In Russia, does the phraseology specify the arm?

    • Replies: @Rahan
    , @Badger Down
  7. g2k says:

    It looks like the uk government is about to move the goalposts, yet again, on ending the UK’s quasi-lockdown. They initially promised to end this by Easter once the very vulnerable had been vaccinated, but extended it by four months and set a ridiculously long time for reopening in order to appease the committee of mini-Fauchis they’ve delegated all of their authority to; who, surprise surprise, have asked for yet another extension. Almost all olds are fully vaccinated and a majority of the rest of the adult population has had at least one shot. There’s a combination of variant hysteria and a small uptick in cases among unvaccinated pockets and people in their teens/early 20s that’s the excuse this time. The daily deaths are in single figures. They can get away with such brazen dishonesty because a large majority of the country is still hysterical about this, regardless of their vaccination status, and will support unlimited restrictions for an unlimited amount of time. If Lemoine is telling the truth, then most of Europe is even worse. It’s ironic, that Brezhneving Russia’s not-that-great corona figures has actually resulted in the vast majority of Russians having a higher quality of life than the vast majority of Europeans probably for the first time in history.

  8. @g2k

    Paragraphs!

    They can get away with such brazen dishonesty because a large majority of the country is still hysterical about this

    1. Changing your plans according to changes in the situation is not “brazen dishonesty”.

    2. The country wants an ultra low risk approach to opening up; so it makes sense for the democratically elected government to give it to them.

    I also hate lockdowns, but the above two facts remain true.

  9. g wiltek says:

    How great that people can tell us we are stupid! I will continue to trust my body, rather than any politician or billionaire. Thank you very much.

    • Agree: Pop Warner, Female in FL
    • Replies: @Rich
    , @silviosilver
  10. g2k says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    2. The country wants an ultra low risk approach to opening up; so it makes sense for the democratically elected government to give it to them.

    Ultra low risk is taking precautions until they’ve had the vaccine, this is more like zero hypothetical risk at extreme cost to themselves and others, without any acceptable end. Plus, there’s also the fact that any country that does achieve “Zero Covid” can then look forward to the very real risk of east German style exit visas for years like Australia.

    If people, after having two doses of a vaccine which prevents transmission by well over ninety percent, and serious illness/death by considerably more, for a disease with a not hideously high fatality rate to start with, in a largely vaccinated population with very low circulation anyway are still demanding others wear rags across their faces and social distance with the full force of the law, then the non-hysterical 30% or so of the population are quite morally correct to tell them to go and do one.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    , @Dmitry
  11. melanf says:

    If you don’t like Sputnik V for whatever reason, you now get the choice of getting the Vector Institute’s EpiVacCorona instead.

    Unlike Sputnik, EpiVacCorona (based on what is known about it) gives zero protection against coronavirus. Although this can be considered as another measure for population selection (idiots who are not able to understand the effectiveness of vaccines will be vaccinated with EpiVacCorona)

  12. melanf says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    S

    putnik prevents even minor illness in 90% of cases, and both death and hospitalisation in 100%. Immunity, unlike sex, is non-binary.

    There have never been 100% effective vaccines in the history of mankind, and Sputnik is no exception. Undoubtedly, there are those who were vaccinated, and then went to the hospital with covid, for sure, there are also those who died from the crown. The vaccine reduces the probability of such an outcome tenfold, but does not give a 100% guarantee

  13. @g2k

    Do you know any 20 somethings? Ask them about their friends and Covid right now.

    • Replies: @g2k
  14. @Triteleia Laxa

    I think quite a few people. Another very elderly acquaintance (also anti-vaxx) believed she had it in January 2020. My attempts to explain that the chances of that were basically zero predictably fell flat.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  15. @melanf

    It is ~100% against death. Even with no vaccine, Covid is ~100% against death!

  16. I got COVID the old-fashioned way, but am considering getting vaxxed anyway, and my options are Sputnik or EpiVacCorona.

    What’s with EpiVacCorona? Supposedly, there is some Telegram of trial participants complaining about lack of effectivity and illness after the second shot. Legit, or more black PR?

    • Replies: @g2k
    , @melanf
  17. Znzn says:

    They can still get the Western vaccines in Russia right?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  18. @g2k

    The lockdowns in the UK have clearly degenerated into some weird kind of virtue signaling spectacle a long time ago.

    Overall, Russia did well to avoid that, ergo for much of the US and East-Central Europe (my position has always been that if you’re not fundamentally serious about suppressing Corona, lockdowns shouldn’t be pursued). China did best overall, of course.

  19. @Znzn

    No, I don’t think so. I don’t see the point either. It would have probably been more efficacious to put in early bids for them, like Israel and the Anglos did, but the fundamental problem in Russia (as per above) is not lack of vaccines.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @utu
  20. g2k says:
    @The Big Red Scary

    If Sputnik is the Russian equivalent of AstraZeneca and EpiVac akin to Phizer/Modena then the latter will probably have fewer or no side effects. Anecdotally, everyone I know who took the AZ one had mild flu-like symptoms the following day (I think AK said he had that from Sputnik, can’t remember), everyone (including myself) who took the Phizer one had a mildly sore arm the following day, about half as bad as from a flu shot.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    , @melanf
  21. @Anatoly Karlin

    Every time I get ill, I tell myself “this is the worst”, “I’ve never felt like this”, “let me die”.

    Given this, I could easily convince myself that every illness was some uniquely awful event, but my perception of time makes everything in the past feel present, making the pattern of internal melodrama obvious.

    I notice that many other people don’t have this so pronounced, even when I remind them of what they said the many times before.

    On the same phenomenon, I don’t think I’ve passed a single year without almost everyone I know, at some point, offering that the weather is particularly strange and never been like this before.

  22. g2k says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you’re a twenty something with a health condition that makes you more susceptible to a nasty case of corona then you’d have been offered both jabs months ago.

    The interesting thing about WFH is that a few of my colleagues caught this and continued to work through it. One was completely asymptomatic, the other had flu-like symptoms for a week with anosmia that took about six weeks to resolve. Both caught it (if they were being honest) from their spouses who caught it at work.

    That’s anecdotal of course. It’s been known for months that a healthy 20-something has a very low chance of dying of this thing and a low but non-trivial chance of getting very sick. Anosmia dragging on for weeks is probably very unpleasant, but then so are endless restrictions. I’ve said this many times before, but it just highlights how nuts things were for Yanks: going on a date was a criminal offense from October to May in most of the UK and our health Taliban was screaming to prevent that stupid rule being relaxed then.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  23. UNIT472 says:

    The US has been overcounting Covid deaths in large part because an elderly person dying of covid is more lucrative to the hospital than one who dies of pneumonia or ‘complications from this that or the other thing’. I noticed this sometime ago when mortality figures were always lowest on Sunday and Monday. My guess was that hospital administrators wanted to review the weekend expired patient cases before doctors listed a cause of death on the death certificate.

    It got absurd in some cases. 45 year old man admitted to the trauma unit for injuries sustained in a motorcycle accident tests positive for covid ( all hospital admissions are tested) so if he dies during surgery cause of death is listed as covid especially if he was uninsured. Its a fair bet that if Officer Chauvin had gotten up to answer his cellphone and George Floyd died lying in the gutter by himself his death would have been listed as covid as the receiving hospital would have gotten no money if the cause of death was listed as overdose of fentanyl and methamphetamine.

    Other countries have other reasons to keep the covid death toll down. Peru just admitted their figures were grossly understated but since they were having an election and couldn’t do anything about it anyway why frighten the public.

  24. @g2k

    Epivac corona is not an mRNA vaccine but a peptide based vaccine.

    Its efficacy data is iffy and has been cleared for use in Turkmenistan besides Russia.

    Sputnik is similar to AZ but uses two different human viruses as carriers instead of a Chimpanzee virus in the case of AstraZeneca.

    Astra Zeneca has proved very effective in preventing hospitalization during the second covid wave in India. 100% of the people covered by my company insurance who took one dose of it(i.e. a sample of 1000 people all above 45 years of age) either did not get Covid or had mild symptoms and none required hospitalization or supplemental oxygen.

    There are similar anecdotal evidence of its effectiveness across the country.

    Sputnik should be even better after two doses.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  25. 76239 says:

    [MORE]

    These are not vaccines. A vaccine has a little bit of the disease in it. Since C-19 has never been proven to exist by true isolation, these “vaccines” do not contain C-19 and are little more than chimera. Their own makers claim the phony vaccines will not prevent you from getting C-19, only lesson the symptoms.

    Why would anyone with any intelligence believe pharma companies (pfizer, jnj, etc.) who have immunity to liability and have paid out tremendous amounts of money damages to plaintiffs over the decades for their past product failures? I guess you trust them because the well connected tech people endorse them?

    Modern science has lost any semblance of truth seeking. It is a rent seeking promotional racket. At least your typical Russian rube has more sense than the absent minded IQ obsessed columnist who writes this drivel.

    • Agree: Pop Warner
    • LOL: Bashibuzuk
    • Troll: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  26. Passer by says:

    Russia’s 11% vaccination rate lags far behind the Anglo-American (~50%) and EU (~30%) rate

    Comparing the percentage of fully vaccinated people makes this less of an embarrassment. Only by a bit, though.

    Around 10 % in Russia vs 42 % in the UK/US and 22 % in the EU.

    • Replies: @thotmonger
  27. I think it’s fairly clear, notwithstanding all the “virtue-signalling” among the self-styled “intellectuals,” is that if covid had been ignored there would have been little public awareness that it was actually happening.

  28. @GazaPlanet

    Which country do you live in?

  29. Beckow says:
    @GazaPlanet

    …if covid had been ignored there would have been little public awareness that it was actually happening.

    Precisely. The reality that vaxers (like AK) cannot admit is that 15% increase in mortality concentrated among elderly and sick is not a catastrophe. It is within normal bounds. One doesn’t have to go nuts.

    Today vaxers are motivated for everyone to pump the miraculous liquid into their veins. They are committed and unsure about what they did. Misery loves company and AK wouldn’t feel like a potential fool. Maybe 90% of people in Russia are the smart ones. They may not have high IQ’s but have a higher Biological Q more important evolutionary (BQ, I will patent it:).

    In a scenario where the vaccinated develop long-term complications it will be interesting to see their reaction. They will probably still blame the unvaccinated. In any case, they have the annual refresher shot to look forward – some will line up for decades, year after year. Is that really smart? Was it done with other vaccines?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Ximenes
  30. Idk russia and other countries which wont get vaccinated/cant control virus are fucked. Maybe some African countries can take it since most of their population is under 40 years old but that is not the case in Russia.

    And if there will be few million deaths in Russia + millions of long term damaged people – then quite many will be angry and will want some revenge. Same thing in Brasil and elsewhere.

    Dangerous times.

    • Replies: @Rich
  31. @Beckow

    (1) Can you pinpoint where I said it would be a “catastrophe”?

    As I recall, it was precisely the Daily Stormer-type rightoids and “groypers” who were ranting about how Corona was going to kill everyone in February 2020, before doing a volte face and claiming it was a “hoax” from around April-May 2020.

    My assessment of the situation has always been rather well calibrated (even if I say so myself), this is my favorite example to date:

    (2) If you are 80 years old and you don’t want to get the vaccine because “Putler wants to genocide the pensioners” (“Bill Gates want to chip me”, etc, etc.), then you either have (a) a death wish, or (b) are a moron, though in this particular case this is a state that might also be explained through elderly dementia. Well, as I stated, such people can die for all I care at this point, the Russian state at any rate has done all it reasonably could to safeguard them, but you can’t save people from themselves.

    Obviously it’s not such a big deal for young people, if they insist on risking a 2-3 week illness that can be rather unpleasant even for some 30 year olds and on getting a test within 3 days of every international flight, well they will ofc be allowed to do that, they will inconvenience themselves more than anyone else at the end of the day so 🤷.

    (3) What will probably happen with Corona is that it will become an endemic disease, constantly evolving new variants, seasonal – so, “just like the flu”, but about 10x more deadly. Just as with the flu, there will be vaccines which will be regularly updated to take into account new variants. Now getting the flu is not usually a big deal, even for the very elderly (1% mortality rate for them), but getting Corona is much more dangerous for them. So you’ll probably have more people taking yearly Corona vaccines than currently take yearly flu vaccines. Those who don’t will just die 5-10 years earlier, on average. Not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things, there are people who smoke and people who abuse alcohol, after all, effect on life expectancy will probably be similar. Again, 🤷.

  32. BlackFlag says:
    @GazaPlanet

    Well, the funeral industry would have noticed a spike in revenue. Actuaries and life insurance companies would also notice. BTW, seems looking at changes in actuary figures would be a good way to get data not tainted by political bias.

    Probably we can project fewer deaths than normal in the next few years since many of the vulnerable have already succumbed. From that you could calculate the average number of life years lost from a COVID death.

    Another extremely interesting number that should be calculated is the age at which a vaccination becomes positive EV. I assume it’s negative for a 5 year old. Aren’t there mathematicians we can trust to crunch these numbers?

    • Replies: @GazaPlanet
  33. BlackFlag says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Those who don’t will just die 5-10 years earlier, on average. Not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things, there are people who smoke and people who abuse alcohol, after all, effect on life expectancy will probably be similar. Again, 🤷.

    Strictly speaking, it will be better for them since people live too long doing nothing but consuming all the resources they manged to save rather than passing it to their heirs. So if anti-vaxxers are dumber than average the effect will be dysgenic.

  34. Flu comes every year, usually several times. It has always been this way. Each outbreak is slightly different. The weak and the elderly sometimes die from it.

    There seems to be not much in the way of general excess deaths anywhere. One would expect a noticeable spike if there was a deadly virus around. This pandemic is mostly a mental problem. Vaccinating against flu is a losing proposition. Mutates too fast. There is no real protection.

    Humans are known for driving each other mad with fear.

    • Agree: Rich
  35. Dmitry says:
    @g2k

    Boris Johnson is an incompetent leader in the pandemic – UK’s weak and late lockdowns, insufficient travel restrictions, and release of coronavirus patients to elderly homes, has resulted in tens of thousands of additional deaths.

    Johnson was not insightful enough to predict the small and temporary economic impact of lockdowns*, and in early months had also seemed confused by a misunderstood concept of “herd immunity”.

    However, by comparison with in Russia, UK’s management of the pandemic has been competent and successful. In Russia, there have been around 550,000 deaths already from coronavirus, if excess deaths are an indicator. There has been lack of transparency in the medical statistics. And I’m not sure why people would try to excuse the blame of the authorities for the slow vaccination rate (which I had been posting about in December) or to blame citizens for this, as if vaccination rollout is not part of state capacity.

    * There has been instant economic boom in response to stopping of lockdown. In other words, consumption was just temporarily delayed for a few months by lockdowns (I wrote in March 2020 https://www.unz.com/akarlin/accelerated-sinotriumph/#comment-3808161 ), without any serious economic effects – although governments’ financial positions has been eroded.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Passer by
  36. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I have followed your writing on corona and vaccination and you are in general a moderate. But the moderate approach has led to a cul-de-sac: either vaccinate 100’s of millions with untested vaccines (mainly MRNA’s) or restrict society semi-permanently. Those are drastic remedies that you support. The question is what problem are we trying to solve? If you favour the drastic remedies – vaccinate! or else – you must consider corona to be a very serious problem. The word catastrophe was mine – I don’t believe you used it and I didn’t say you did. But your views make little sense if you don’t see corona as a catastrophe.

    The reality is that corona has not been a catastrophe. You belatedly distinguish the situation for the elderly and the young – that is a key point so throwing around numbers like “only 10% are vaccinated” or 22% in EU, is misleading. Most of the 90% unvaccinated are not elderly. I generally agree that the elderly should get the vaccine, but it makes no sense for the young.

    …you’ll probably have more people taking yearly Corona vaccines than currently take yearly flu vaccines. Those who don’t will just die 5-10 years earlier

    That is both wrong and rather flippant. Nothing in the data indicates that unvaccinated elderly would die 5-10 years earlier – the mortality rate for over 80 is 4-5%. You also ignore any vaccination side effects. An untested vaccine is probably going to have them and some have been covered extensively even in the main stream media (inflammation of the heart muscle in young men, trombosis, etc…). Yesterday Austria said that they have settled 14 cases for vaccination side effects – no details were released. Given that it takes a long time to prove anything to governments and that vaccination is in early stages in Austria this is a sign of things to come. You cannot assert that you know that “they are safe” – even the pharma companies don’t go that far. Given that it is risk against risk it should be up to each individual.

    Now a money question: can you clearly state whether you are in favour of vaccinating the young, or children? We can all agree on the elderly, but how about everyone else?

    • Thanks: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @BlackFlag
    , @Sinotibetan
  37. @Dmitry

    Citizens absolutely should be blamed for it. (Well, to some extent, if they especially the over 60s want to play Russian roulette with their lives, it’s their choice). As I mentioned, there has been access to vaccination for months now – up to the point of clinics calling elderly people urging them to book an appointment. You can literally walk right up to GUM or any one of dozens of shopping centers and parks in Moscow and get vaccinated on arrival with no or minimal queues and even get a free ice cream for your trouble. To the extent the Russian state can be faulted, it’s for an insufficiently active pro-vaccination propaganda campaign. Then again, perhaps such a propaganda campaign would have driven the anti-vaxxing sovoks into more extreme hysterias.

    The Russian government is to be commended for not bothering people with lockdowns after the first one. My position has always been that if you are fundamentally unserious about containing Corona, and moreover if your population is not even interested in getting vaccinated anyway, then you shouldn’t interfere with people’s lives, government finances, and the GDP.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  38. Dmitry says:
    @g2k

    non-hysterical 30%

    Wearing masks adequately (especially ffp2 or ffp3) and following anti-epidemic guidelines like ventilation of indoor spaces, would have saved millions of lives in the world, saved millions of hours of illness, reduced the need for lockdowns, and also reduced the need for vaccine.

    non-hysterical 30%

    Responsible behaviour and even lockdowns (which were required to a greater extent, due to irresponsible behaviour of many individuals), was also for most citizens, not very inconvenient.

    So you have to see a film at home, instead of cinema. Or go to takeaway instead of eating in a restaurant. Or meet with 3 friends instead of 6. Or to spend time with your children at home.

    That any people (excluding of owners of small businesses, who have their economic self-interest) was complaining about this during a pandemic in which risks were not fully known and would be solved easier early than late, shows how spoilt many citizens of first world countries have become.

    We see effects of historically unprecedented levels of luxury and comfort on an animal, who was designed for, and for most of its history, not one thousandth of the convenience experienced in daily life of average people living in 21st century developed countries. Psychologically, many people are not adapted for the levels of comfort and luxury they have experienced all their lives, and the result is people complaining about wearing a mask when they go to a shop.

    • Replies: @Coconuts
  39. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    has been access to vaccination for months now

    Production has also been slow, as predicted. There was only 33 million doses of vaccine produced in Russia by middle of May.

    This is slightly slower than we knew in January. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-136/#comment-4423050

    To the extent the Russian state can be faulted, it’s for an insufficiently active pro-vaccination propaganda

    If there was only 33 million doses produced in Russia by last month, then there could be at most 22% vaccination. Although it had been correctly targeted at over 60 year old people only (and combined with a law on this topic for compulsory vaccination, as well as not sending any vaccines to foreign countries) – this quantity of vaccine production would have been sufficient to end the vast majority of deaths.

    commended for not bothering people with lockdowns

    I don’t see this.

    Likely one of the worst incompetency which was seen by authorities this year, was insufficiently early and strict lockdowns during vaccine rollouts.

    This mistake was easily seen in countries where false confidence has been created by efficient vaccine rollout – e.g. especially we saw it early this year in Israel and Hungary.

    In countries like Hungary and Israel, the greatest number of the deaths, occurred during the vaccine rollout. An earlier and stricter lockdown, would have resulted not only in thousands less deaths from 3rd wave coronavirus in those countries, but also a faster return to normal life.

    Hungary is finally returning to normal life this month, much later (and with far more dead people) than would have been with an earlier and stricter lockdown at the beginning of this year, when their otherwise efficient vaccine rollout was initiating.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @utu
  40. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    “fundamental problem in Russia (as per above) is not lack of vaccines” – Are you sure? What if the 10-15% vaccination rate reflects the available supply of vaccine and also explains why more intense vaccination campaign that would increase the demand for it was not launched in Russia. Is it possible that Kremlin rather sells the vaccine abroad for hard currency and for good PR than have Russians vaccinated?

    Mexico cites Russia’s Sputnik vaccine production problems (May 11, 2021)
    https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-mexico-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-cd83a5850f8384fbb364890ef583e5f0

    “Russian authorities have been having so many problems producing second doses of their Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine that Russia probably will be unable to supply enough to people who already got the first dose, Mexican officials said Monday.”

    Some countries produce (will produce) Sputnik V:

    Sputnik V vaccine production starts in India; 100 million doses to be produced annually (May 27, 2021)
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/covid-19-sputnik-v-production-starts-in-india-100-million-doses-to-be-produced-annually/articleshow/82910177.cms?from=mdr

    Serbia and Argentina start producing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine (Jun 4, 2021)
    https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/serbia-argentina-start-producing-russias-sputnik-v-vaccine-2021-06-04/

    Russia looks to China to help produce its Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine (May 3, 2021)
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-looks-to-china-to-help-produce-its-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-01620023486

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said demand for Sputnik V significantly exceeds Russia’s domestic production capacity.

    • Replies: @utu
  41. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    There has been instant economic boom in response to stopping of lockdown. In other words, consumption was just temporarily delayed for a few months by lockdowns

    Lol no. There is no instant economic boom in response to stopping of lockdown.

    It looks like a big spike but only because it is from a very low base, deep down from the hole.

    Rather it is a long catch up to 2019 economic levels (in the EU or UK) that will happen only by 2022.

    In Russia, the economy will catch up by autumn 2021. Same in the US, with 5 trillion in crisis stimulus, though. Otherwise the US would have faced a great depression.

    Overall, the global economy lost 2 years due to the corona pandemic, plus it added more debt compared to before pandemic trajectories.

    There are also long term scarring effects – due to long term health issues, a drop in TFR, children not visiting school lowering the quality of the labor force, higher debt depressing economic growth, etc.

    https://www.oecd.org/education/The-economic-impacts-of-coronavirus-covid-19-learning-losses.pdf

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  42. utu says:
    @utu

    COVID-19 vaccine: Here’s why Russia is struggling to make Sputnik V doses (May 14, 2021)
    https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/pharma/covid-19-vaccine-here-why-russia-is-struggling-to-make-sputnik-v-doses/story/439057.html

    President Vladimir Putin has trumpeted the vaccine around the world, and said in March that Russia had signed agreements for the production of 700 million doses of Sputnik V vaccine abroad. But Russia had produced just 33 million vaccines as of May 12 and exported fewer than 15 million, according to a Reuters tally that counted each vaccine as consisting of two doses.

    If the numbers are true, the vaccination rate in Russia equals the vaccine available supply. It could be increased at most by the factor of two if vaccines were not exported. So at best vaccination rate in Russia could be 20%. So I do not think that skeptics and anti-vaxxers have any impact on the vaccination rate in Russia. While the subject of anti-vaxxers and other neo-obscuratists are always interesting as psychological and sociological phenomena Karlin’s focus on them serves to obscure the discrepancy between Russia’s PR success of Sputnik V vaccine and the Russia’s inability to produce the vaccine.

    • Replies: @Demografie
    , @melanf
  43. @Triteleia Laxa

    No, brazen dishonesty is pretending this virus is especially dangerous and these vaccines are necessary (to say nothing of their safety or efficacy).

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  44. I resent being vaccinated and still being formally obligated to wear a mask on the Metro and other public indoor places

    lmao

    seethe

    • Replies: @utu
  45. @michael droy

    90% efficacy means that 10% of those vaccinated are still vulnerable.

    The efficacy claims for the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” (pFizer, Moderna, Astrazeneca, Johnson & Johnson) are basically just nonsense, or more strictly speaking, irrelevant metrics to convince the public that these “vaccines” are way more effective than they actually are. Most people still haven’t grasped the fact that even the American CDC and the “vaccine” manufacturers themselves openly admit that their “vaccines” neither prevent one from catching or spreading Corona Chan.

    [MORE]

    Here’s a quite lengthy video of a lecture conference (Event 2021) conducted in Texas very recently in which Dr. Richard Fleming goes into some detail about how the (relative) “efficacy” figures for the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” were calculated, noting that the actual (absolute) “efficacy” of these experimental is down around 1%.

    ====================================================================

    Dr. Richard Fleming – Event 2021 Corona Chan Information Conference (Video – 4 hours 30 mins)

    (https://thehighwire.com/videos/live-from-event-2021-in-dallas-tx/ ]
    (https://media.livecast365.com/highwire/thehighwire/content/1622927384709.mp4 ]

    ====================================================================

    I don’t have any knowledge of how the efficacy figures for the Russian Sputnik V vaccine have been calculated, but I suspect the same approach was used (comparing apples to apples in a globally competitive market).

    Allow me to state here that, unlike it’s Western counterparts, the Sputnik V vaccine is a vaccine (not a disguised bioweapon as for the Western “vaccines”) and if push came to shove and I was compelled to be injected, the Sputnik V vaccine would be the only option for me (sadly, unlikely in the extreme here in Australia). So far, I have not seen a single report of any adverse events in the 60+ countries in which the Sputnik V vaccine has been approved for use. Contrast this with the fact that the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” kill way more people than Corona Chan –

    ====================================================================

    Vaccines are more dangerous than Corona Chan

    (https://anti-empire.com/norways-health-authority-says-further-use-of-astrazeneca-riskier-than-covid-recommends-pulling-vaccine-permanently/ ]

    (https://www.unz.com/gatzmon/the-israeli-people-committees-april-report-on-the-lethal-impact-of-vaccinations/ ]

    (https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/experimental-vaccine-death-rate-for-israels-elderly-40-times-higher-than-covid-19-deaths-researchers ]

    (https://freenations.net/record-vaccine-deaths-risk-greater-than-covid-governments-manipulate-data-illegal-tracking-of-vaccinated-illegal-propaganda-covid-fascists-revealed/ ]

    (https://www.bitchute.com/video/bSxEe9RS0P29/ ]
    (https://seed163.bitchute.com/2dPYYSnBMwXp/bSxEe9RS0P29.mp4 ]

    (https://truthcomestolight.com/covid-vaccines-dr-sherri-tenpenny-describes-the-many-mechanisms-of-injury-this-is-a-very-well-designed-killing-machine/ ]

    (https://www.bitchute.com/video/fhhNpDM9Ahwf/ ]

    ====================================================================

    IMO the Sputnik V vaccine is a Godsend to the world, to the extent that it has saved millions of people from being injected with the Western “vaccines”, on the path to the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset agenda of economic destruction and depopulation.

    Here’s what Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier had to say about the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” –

    ====================================================================

    ====================================================================

    And here’s what Dr. Peter McCullough had to say about the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” –

    ====================================================================

    Dr. Peter McCullough speaks on the Corona Chan “vaccines”

    Short Version (16 minutes)
    (https://rumble.com/embed/vf328h/ ]
    (https://rumble.com/vhp8e1-massive-world-renowned-doctor-blows-lid-off-of-covid-vaccine.html ]

    Full Version (1 hour 45 minutes)
    (https://rumble.com/embed/vf31sl/ ]
    (https://rumble.com/vhp7y5-full-interview-world-renowned-doctor-blows-lid-off-of-covid-vaccine.html ]

    ====================================================================

    Having said all that, and with great respect for Russia’s valuable contribution of safe vaccines to the world, I personally would not consent to being injected with any vaccine (and definitely not the Western “vaccines”) simply because (as revealed by the American CDC’s own published figures) Corona Chan is a relatively harmless bug, no worse than a typical influenza virus, for which anyone middle aged or under and in good health is essentially immune. Moreover, even for those at risk due to poor health and weak immune system, a variety of cheap and safe nutritional and medicinal remedies have been emphatically demonstrated to be very effective at curing Corona Chan.

    Ivermectin in particular is proving to be an almost miraculous cure for Corona Chan, but this cheap generic drug has effectively been banned in most Western nations, along with just about every other known remedy for Corona Chan, to clear the way for universal injection of the Corona Chan “vaccines”. There is an abundance of information already available to confirm the effectiveness of Ivermectin in curing Corona Chan, and the massive reduction of Corona Chan hospitalizations and deaths in Mexico City and in various Indian states confirm this –

    ====================================================================

    (https://www.lewrockwell.com/2021/06/ira-katz/ivermectin-covid-19-and-why-it-could-be-miraculous/ ]

    (https://youtu.be/pQiv8I9Peqk?t=2818 ]

    (https://www.onedaymd.com/2021/04/ivermectin-flccc-protocol-for-covid-19.html ]

    ====================================================================

    From the perspective of a Westerner under seige from creepy Bill’s and Uncle Klaus’ globalist campaign to coerce everyone on the planet to be injected with disguised eugenic bioweapons, I respectfully suggest that Russians have little to worry about with Corona Chan, so long as they manage to see past the incredibly aggressive and pervasive Western Corona Chan “pandemic” propaganda with its total censorship and suppression of any medical option for Corona Chan apart from the experimental {“vaccines”.

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
  46. Rahan says:
    @SafeNow

    In Russia, does the phraseology specify the arm?

  47. Mr. Karlin, why another post about this topic that’s little more than insults directed to those who haven’t decided to take the shot(s)?

    Be that as it may, though, there’s clearly a difference between being in the Corona demographic risk group and dying because you do not have access to a vaccine because of state distribution failure, and dying because you are too lazy, paranoid, and/or have had your brain destroyed by conspiracy theories to get vaccinated. These people’s obstinacy makes life modestly more uncomfortable than it has to be (e.g. I resent being vaccinated and still being formally obligated to wear a mask on the Metro and other public indoor places). But the key point is that to the extent they now die of Corona, it is now through their own conscious choices – that is, it is now more of a Darwin Award than a tragedy. If one is of a cynical disposition, one might even salute their unwitting sacrifice for the Russian budget and pensions system.

    You may console yourself for now with demeaning your intellectual inferiors, but only time will tell who has made the correct decision.

  48. For months Russian state TV presented coronavirus as a foreign problem. Their priority was to protect Putin’s approval rating. There is definitely not enough fear in the population – Russians simply do not understand why they need to be vaccinated.

    • Replies: @melanf
  49. The core reason while vaccination rates remain low is now clearly dominated by the fact that the post-Soviet environment is one of the world’s most ideologically anti-vaxx…

    Low trust in state institutions (post-Soviets, HK, many parts of the US) is correlated with high levels of antivaxx sentiments since the current COVID vaccination drive is predominantly a state and globalist effort (cue contract tracing apps and vaccine passports), and much of the medical establishment is seen as being co-opted for political goals. This and your WEF “conspiracy theories”. Besides, COVID is highly transmissible but not lethal enough to justify total vaccination campaigns (in this regard more like annual flu outbreaks than one of those vaccines children obtain), and much of the case number data is compromised by way of loose PCR tests. 10% coverage in Russia and 50% in the US are already astounding achievements.

    Putin could go Schwab’s preferred way and mandate vaccine passports for even obtaining daily needs and services, but this would immediately tank his support, Lukashenko would laugh at him and it wouldn’t do a lot anyway (since Russians had experience with shortage economies and informal markets, and they could go back to it). We’ll see the birth of a global informal economy in opposition to the one gate-kept by vaccine enforcers.

    I can’t stress these enough and I’m already very weary of all these COVID vaccine b*llshit – This is why I kept off commenting here until now and won’t reply to anything on this thread other than replies to this comment.

  50. jsinton says:

    Someone asked an Amish fellow why the Amish don’t get COVID. His answer? “Because we don’t have television”.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  51. utu says:
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    There are two reasons for it: Vaccine efficacy of 90-95% initially was determined using symptom based diagnosis. The possibility of symptomless vaccinated virus spreaders might be real. The second reason is masking enforcement. It is just too complicated to distinguish maskless vaccinated from maskless idiots.

  52. @Passer by

    Pending evidence of long term safety, I am encouraged there are some holdouts who can serve as controls. The Darwin Award may yet go to those who again put their faith in Big Pharma.

    p.s. How dare anyone suggest that greed might be a central motive behind the effort to vaccinate every person, er creature, that walks on God’s green earth? I dunno. Vioxx. Oxycontin. Margarine, “the healthy alternative”…

    https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2123879/thai-company-to-import-worlds-first-pet-vaccine

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  53. @Anatoly Karlin

    Normal people know what to do. Get vaccinated seems like best option, so people go for it.
    Really, there’s not much to debate. If you’re not get vaccinated. Well, that’s pity. I don’t care at this point. Funny, that anti vaxx people talk more about vaccines. All my family who got vaccinated just move on with life.
    Also, there’s not much to debate. Covid-19 moved from healthcare problem to religious for some people.

  54. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    As I recall, it was precisely the Daily Stormer-type rightoids and “groypers” who were ranting about how Corona was going to kill everyone in February 2020, before doing a volte face and claiming it was a “hoax” from around April-May 2020.

    Ron Unz’z (April 27, 2020) take on Anglin’s volte:

    https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/lifting-the-lockdown-easy-does-it/?showcomments#comment-3863472

    I remember around March, Anglin was freely saying the whole thing was going to be a total disaster in America due to Trump’s incompetence, and huge numbers of people would die. And I think he even said how shocked he was at how absurdly easily the Trump people were finding it to deflect the blame on China, even though that made absolutely no sense.

    So I suspect that he realized the “China bioweapon” story was just too well entrenched among (gullible) right-wing activists to be easily dislodged with more plausible information when the topic really became hot in America around then. And he decided to launch a clever flank attack instead, and focus on the “It’s Just the Flu!!!” nonsense, which had also been floating around in fringe circles.

    Based on the comments to that ZeroHedge article someone linked, it seems to have worked perfectly. The “China bioweapon” people at ZeroHedge are apparently getting totally swamped by the “It’s Just the Flu!!” people. After all, if It’s Just the Flu! how can anyone blame China?

    An utu’s take:

    https://www.unz.com/article/the-jared-kushner-strategy-obviously-backfired/?showcomments#comment-4276710

    My reasoning is based on the cui bono position. I really do not know from where “It’s Just the Flu!!” meme spread and who seeded it first but if you are correct that Anglin played a significant role in it and his objective, as you posit, was to sabotage the “Chinese bioweapon” meme then he did what any Chinese agent of influence should/would have done. If Anglin was the first stone that helped to kill two birds: (1) sabotage “Chinese bioweapon” meme and (2) contribute to the erratic response to the virus in America that significantly will weaken America vis-à-vis China, China should give him a medal even if his driving force was just a spite and antics of the performance artists.

    I do not think that our speculative takes are that much different except that I accept a possibility of malice playing a role in Chinese actions. Perhaps because I am more cynical or less idealistic about the purity of Chinese hearts that are not above wishing us ill and not above acting on the wishes.

    • Agree: AP
    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  55. @utu

    Dude, there are Twitter video of people roaming empty vaccination station in Russia. There is no point to debate covid-19 with people like you.

  56. melanf says:
    @utu

    Karlin’s focus on them serves to obscure the discrepancy between Russia’s PR success of Sputnik V vaccine and the Russia’s inability to produce the vaccine.

    I can fully confirm what Karlin said. For many months, people can be vaccinated by Sputnic without any problems – in polyclinics, shopping centers, at field vaccination points, at work, etc. In some regions (as well as in many enterprises) those who are vaccinated receive money

    So I do not think that skeptics and anti-vaxxers have any impact on the vaccination rate in Russia.

    In the case of Russia, they are the decisive factor. If they were not there, restrictions related to the volume of production would begin to apply, but in the current reality, there are more vaccines than those who want to be vaccinated

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin, AP, mal
    • Replies: @utu
  57. melanf says:
    @Felix Keverich

    For months Russian state TV presented coronavirus as a foreign problem. …. There is definitely not enough fear in the population – Russians simply do not understand why they need to be vaccinated.

    That’s not true. In addition to state propaganda on television, in the spring and early summer of 2020, the authorities broadcast several times a day from a loudspeaker that Covid is a deadly danger,and precautions must be taken. One of the main arguments of the Russian white trash – “I do not believe in the coronavirus because it is constantly promoted by the state media”

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  58. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    Israel, Hungary and Russia deaths/million are 689, 3,102 and 858, respectively. However Russia is severely undercounted. Possibly by factor of 6.7 according to Karlinsky and Kobak:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full.pdf

    I think that Hungary just like Czechia and Poland blew it long before they had any prospects of getting vaccines. There is a question whether they really blew it or it was an intentional decision of feigning ineptitude, which in their cases did not take much effort, to emulate Sweden. I wonder whether they were aware that with their socio-economic profile and population density the Swedish result of 1,430 deaths/million would be multiplied.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  59. @utu

    You misunderstand, I was laughing at the vaxxed-up maskcuck who still has to wear his cuckmuzzle, and isn’t happy about it. So much for “It’s no big deal, guys, just wear one! I can breathe just fine!”

    You, obviously, will not share this laugh. I hope you too enjoy suffering the full panoply of ridiculous corona theatre despite doing your part to help big pharma recover the money they’d sunk into mRNA moon pie.

    Remember: all of this was unnecessary; it all could have been avoided if people like yourself had come to your senses sooner; it will never end until you do; and until that time, you lose all right to complain about having to wear a mask.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  60. @Demografie

    empty vaccination station in Russia

    And every other country in the world

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  61. @BlackFlag

    We can’t trust these people. It could be there is a higher death rate but it is caused by higher levels of euthanasia and other reasons related to shut-downs and delayed medical treatments.

  62. Coconuts says:
    @Dmitry

    We see effects of historically unprecedented levels of luxury and comfort on an animal, who was designed for, and for most of its history, not one thousandth of the convenience experienced in daily life of average people living in 21st century developed countries. Psychologically, many people are not adapted for the levels of comfort and luxury they have experienced all their lives, and the result is people complaining about wearing a mask when they go to a shop.

    Possibly this is one explanation for some of the anti-lockdown feeling that can be seen. It might be some kind of evolved intuition about the dangers of trying to create a risk free environment, particularly when it looks like it is being done for the benefit of the very old members of the group, and this could also be at the expense of births of children from the young.

  63. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    Big pharma is not making a lot of money, as evidenced by their lackluster stock market performance.

    But it’s interesting that you trust this artificially enhanced chimerical virus straight out of a lab more than a vaccine literally doing a fraction of what the virus itself does.

  64. Russia’s development of one of the world’s most effective vaccines, Sputnik V, which boasts an efficacy rate of >90% ….

    Yes, that is the Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) they report, but do you have any idea of its Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)?

    For the vaxxes preferred in the West, the RRRs are mostly reported as >90%, but for all of them the ARR is less than 1%.

    Relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data are poorly understood by health professionals and the public. The absence of reported absolute risk reduction in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials can lead to outcome reporting bias that affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy. The present article uses clinical epidemiologic tools to critically appraise reports of efficacy in Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Based on data reported by the manufacturer for Pfzier/BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2, this critical appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 95.1%; 95% CI, 90.0% to 97.6%; p = 0.016; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.59% to 0.83%; p < 0.000. For the Moderna vaccine mRNA-1273, the appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 94.1%; 95% CI, 89.1% to 96.8%; p = 0.004; absolute risk reduction, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.97% to 1.32%; p < 0.000. Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy.

    source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7996517/pdf/medicina-57-00199.pdf

    Do a little more research, and you’ll learn that all of the vaxxes have had tens of thousands of deaths and even more cases of non-fatal serious adverse events reported within a couple weeks, which are being dismissed in most cases as merely “coinciding” with the recent vaccination (kind of the opposite of COVID19 reporting, where COVID19 was linked to any death within 28 days of a positive test). The spike protein that is the basis for all the vaxxes is itself pathological, causing things like clotting, myocarditis, and other effects that the “experts” claimed were not likely but are because the spikes do get into the blood stream to wreak havoc.

    What is the adverse event history for Sputnik? I hope it is better than those for the other vaxxes.

    • Agree: Ultrafart the Brave
    • Replies: @Dreadilk
  65. utu says:
    @melanf

    When 90% of supply is bought by public and the remaining 10% is exported and some is still lingering on shelves I can believe that the equilibrium between supply and demand has been reached. This is the case with 50 tons of black caviar that Russia produces. If however Kremlin decided to spend money on advertisement campaign that caviar is good for you and that eating caviar is a patriotic duty of every Russian then there would be caviar shortage and people would stand in lines for it. It does not make sense for Kremlin to make Eat the Black Caviar campaign because practically all of produced caviar is already consumed.

    Would it make sense for Kremlin to make intensive vaccination campaign if all produced vaccines are already utilized? No. That’s why there are no lines for vaccines because raising demand does not make sense. If anything lowering demand is in Kremlin’s interest because Kremlin prioritizes export for political reasons. Russian anti-vacxxers and Karlin who blames them while winking his eye are working hand in hand with Kremlin to help Kremlin obscure how pathetically low is Russia’s capacity for vaccine production and the fact that Kremlin cynically prioritizes foreigners over Russians by exporting almost 50% of produced vaccines.

    Russia delivers Sputnik V vaccine to St Petersburg after shortage problems (March 19, 2021)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine-sho/russia-delivers-sputnik-v-vaccine-to-st-petersburg-after-shortage-problems-idUSKBN2BB1QX

    Since then several Russian regions, excluding Moscow, have reported shortages, with some Russians voicing frustration about Russia sending vaccines abroad, arguing that more shots should be made available at home.

    In St Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, there has been a shortage of the first component of the two-shot vaccine in more than 30 out of around 120 vaccination points, said Olga Ryabinina, the local health committee’s spokeswoman.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @melanf
    , @melanf
  66. melanf says:
    @utu

    Russia delivers Sputnik V vaccine to St Petersburg after shortage problems (March 19,

    So it was in March, and the problem was relative (the number of vaccination points temporarily decreased). But this situation was corrected after a week. Now in St. Petersburg there is a huge surplus of opportunities to vaccinate – there are even vaccination points working at night (apparently for the convenience of vaccinating vampires)

  67. @Ultrafart the Brave

    Interesting that an image which states Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier’s view on the Western Corona Chan “vaccines” has been removed. Luc Montagnier’s emphatic opposition to the “vaccines” compared to their apparent endorsement by Mr. Karlin doesn’t put this in a good light.

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
  68. melanf says:
    @The Big Red Scary

    I got COVID the old-fashioned way, but am considering getting vaxxed anyway, and my options are Sputnik or EpiVacCorona.

    Then get vaccinated Sputnik V. EpiVacCorona according to published data is an extremely ineffective vaccine

  69. melanf says:
    @g2k

    If Sputnik is the Russian equivalent of AstraZeneca and EpiVac akin to Phizer/Modena then the latter will probably have fewer or no side effects.

    Sputnik is NOT an analog of Astrazeneca, but rather a combination of the Covidence and Johnson &Johnson vaccines. In terms of side effects and effectiveness, the Sputnik roughly corresponds to mRNA vaccines (judging by the information that is known). EpiVacCorona is apparently a non-working vaccine.

    no side effects.

    These vaccines have side effects

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
  70. Pericles says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    As I recall, it was precisely the Daily Stormer-type rightoids and “groypers” who were ranting about how Corona was going to kill everyone in February 2020, before doing a volte face and claiming it was a “hoax” from around April-May 2020.

    The grainy videos from China with people staggering around and falling down in the street were a bit concerning. Could have been fake, but one may then wonder why.

    Regarding le volte face, did we all hug a chinese like the great and good told us back in Feb 2020? Face masks unnecessary until everybody important had been supplied, then required. Herd immunity will save us then no herd immunity possible. I suppose it goes on.

    We have at least three more left to consider: masks work/don’t work, lockdowns work/don’t work, closed borders work/don’t work (but migrants always welcome).

    Given that we don’t even seem to have a clear idea of how Corona spreads, the risk seems considerable that vaxx passports will be ultimately useless too.

  71. Rich says:
    @g wiltek

    If there was a real danger, if people saw others dying, or becoming violently ill, there would be no reason for the massive propaganda campaign pushing these gene therapy shots. People aren’t getting the shot because they are capable of looking around and seeing it isn’t necessary. The ‘experts’ were wrong. It’s okay that they were wrong, covid was an unknown entity a year and a half ago. Trouble is, they’ve invested so much energy in a false narrative, it would hurt their egos to admit they overhyped how bad covid was.

  72. @Ultrafart the Brave

    .. and now it’s back again.

    Am I having a stroke?

  73. melanf says:
    @utu

    When 90% of supply is bought by public and the remaining 10% is exported and some is still lingering on shelves I can believe that the equilibrium between supply and demand has been reached. This is the case with 50 tons of black caviar that Russia produces. If however Kremlin decided to spend money on advertisement campaign that caviar is good for you and that eating caviar is a patriotic duty of every Russian then there would be caviar shortage

    Have you ever heard of cases where people received money for eating black caviar? Some companies pay employees 10,000 rubles (about $ 130) for vaccination

    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    , @utu
  74. @SafeNow

    prescription bottles of pills must now say “take by mouth.”

    Cue Mr Bean trying to grab some off the shelf like that.

    • LOL: Greta Handel
  75. Rich says:
    @Finnishguy78

    Are you guys insane? There is a 99.7% survival rate for people who get the disease. Only the very elderly and those with serious co-morbidities risk death from the virus. A year ago, when we didn’t have all the stats, your position was arguable. Now that we know it was mostly hype, can you guys stop and just admit you were wrong? Why not?

    • Disagree: Passer by
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Passer by
  76. RodW says:
    @reiner Tor

    But it’s interesting that you trust this artificially enhanced chimerical virus straight out of a lab more than a vaccine literally doing a fraction of what the virus itself does.

    Nice false dichotomy there. Wrapped in a straw man too.

    • Disagree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  77. utu says:
    @Rich

    “There is a 99.7% survival rate for people who get the disease.” – IFR=0.3% is too low. Early estimates of IFR=0.8% to 1% seem to remain to be valid for countries with European level of medical care and age demographic profile. If IFR was 0.3% Hungary would have to be over 100% infected and countries like Czechia over 94% infected. And also Russia would have to be over 100% infected if it was true its stats are underestimated by factor larger than 3.5.

    • Replies: @Finnishguy78
  78. @jimmyriddle

    i too would be interested in ak’s take on the ivermectin controversy. im a little surprised to note that the subject has been given far more attention at left-liberal naked capitalism than by any unz author, but then again these are very strange times.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/05/i-dont-know-of-a-bigger-story-in-the-world-right-now-than-ivermectin-ny-times-best-selling-author.html

    • Replies: @jimmyriddle
  79. @reiner Tor

    „Big Pharma is not making a lot of money“? Many readily available sources to the contrary:

    https://www.newsweek.com/big-pharma-companies-profits-industries-study-1490407

    Do you mean that they‘re not making much profit off the billions of vaccine shots that have been mandated or coerced by governments and big corporate employers? What‘s the basis for that counterintuitive assertion?

    You make a fair point about the real possibility that this virus was intentionally made more contagious and/or more lethal by evil governments, whether „ours“ or China‘s or both. But it‘s possible for this to be true, and still conclude that government and corporations systematically exaggerated the virus‘s lethality to frighten people into giving up much more liberty and property (and further enrich Big Pharma through a succession of required „vaccines“ and annual booster shots).

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  80. @melanf

    In terms of side effects and effectiveness, the Sputnik roughly corresponds to mRNA vaccines (judging by the information that is known).

    I have so far seen no reports at all of adverse effects from the Sputnik V vaccine used in over 60 nations around the world.

    If you have access to any such reports, it would be helpful to provide this information for others to investigate.

    Meanwhile, the pFizer and Moderna mRNA seem to be the most deadly of all the Corona Chan “vaccines”, outpacing all other contenders for the most serious adverse events and fatalities.

    (https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/experimental-vaccine-death-rate-for-israels-elderly-40-times-higher-than-covid-19-deaths-researchers ]

    (https://www.bitchute.com/video/bSxEe9RS0P29/ ]

    FWIW, the mRNA “vaccines” from pFizer and Moderna seem to be the gift that just keeps on giving, with new surprises (not disclosed by pFizer and Moderna) being discovered weekly. For example, take this gem –

    Magnetofection – Magnetic Components Deliberately Inserted into pFizer & Moderna mRNA “Vaccines”

    (https://www.bitchute.com/video/bHthoQmn3lFl/ ]
    (https://zb10-7gsop1v78.bitchute.com/r8wq75doLqKP/bHthoQmn3lFl.mp4 ]

    If one were prone to speculation, one might wonder just how these undisclosed features of the Moderna and pFizer mRNA “vaccines” are designed to interact with the already planned “booster shots” and whatever other new surprises they may have in store for us.

    • Replies: @melanf
  81. AP says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Do you also believe that the coercive seatbelt and helmet laws are a plot by the industries that produce those products, for the purpose of self-enrichment at the expense of our freedom?

  82. Mr. Hack says:

    A young (<25) and otherwise healthy co-worker of mine that sits next to me at work came down with a debilitating bout of Covid-19 in mid-May, that kept her out of the office till the beginning of June. She experienced most of the symptoms and told me that it was worse than any flu that she had experienced in the past. She never got a vaccination, but now wishes that she had. It's not over yet folks, even though things are getting better.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  83. melanf says:
    @Ultrafart the Brave

    I have so far seen no reports at all of adverse effects from the Sputnik V vaccine used in over 60 nations around the world. If you have access to any such reports, it would be helpful to provide this information for others to investigate.

    Argentine report on the effects of 3.4 million SPUTNIK V dose
    https://bancos.salud.gob.ar/sites/default/files/2021-05/2021-05-14-informe-11.pdf

    data on the side effects of the Sputnik V vaccine in San Marino
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.03.21256509v1

    ” analysis confirmed a good tolerability profile in the over 60 years age group after both doses regarding short-term solicited AEFI to Sputnik V (Gam-COVID-Vac).”

    • Thanks: Ultrafart the Brave
  84. melanf says:
    @reiner Tor

    If you can specify one point. The second table (in English) is quite consistent with the table in Hungarian?

    The source of the “Hungarian” table is here https://www.facebook.com/kormanyzat/posts/5439413329464676

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  85. Passer by says:
    @Rich

    You are not thinking about long term health damages, aren’t you? Its just “death rates”. Covid is known to cause lung and brain damage and i personally know several people in the 30 – 60 year old range who started to have memory problems after it.

    • Agree: melanf, reiner Tor
    • Disagree: Rich
    • Replies: @joniel
    , @Rich
  86. Patricus says:

    These miracle vaccines are classified as experimental drugs approved for emergency use. That’s according to the US Food and Drug Administration. The FDA has been accused of excessive caution. In fact the multi-year approval process came about as thousands died from various drugs and vaccines when there were faster approvals. No one likes these long term approvals because this adds a lot to the costs of developing medicines. On the other hand, unanticipated deaths are more unpleasant. Why would a healthy person take an experimental ‘vaccine’ when the fatalities for Covid-19 are virtually zero? People over 80, and those with immune system diseases, would be rational to take an experimental cure. It is insane for younger people to take these, sick and depraved to administer these To children.

  87. @utu

    Different strains can be more fatal too, for example brasilian strain seems to be more fatal than others etc..
    Even if original covid strain was not that fatal, those days are long gone.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Disagree: Rich
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  88. @melanf

    My employer tried to force us to get the normal flu shot for the last few years, but has made a point of saying the covid vaccine is voluntary. Go figure.

  89. Max Payne says:

    Dying from corona has always been optional.

    I will eventually take the covid vaccine in 3-5 years even though I already have antibodies from actually getting covid.

    I’ve worked for a hospital and have vaccines for things I can’t pronounce. I am not an anti-vaxxer.

    I just don’t understand the big push to force everyone to take it now. If in 5 years those who have been vaccinate are alright I’ll grab it easy peasy.

    You know…. When v1.3 is out and all the major game breaking bugs are gone. Not this Early Access public beta lurking with memory leaks. It seems I can survive covid without a vaccine just fine (for now).

    Why do people not want me to have the win-win-win scenario?

    Don’t hate me for my superior genetics. One might even call me noble for stepping aside so the weak can get vaccinated first.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  90. joniel says:
    @Passer by

    Anti-vaccine people are now complaining about the dangers of the “spike protein” created by the vaccine. First of all, the “spike proteins” created by the vaccine are not released freely throughout the body. Secondly, what do they think happens when they get a natural infection of the virus? The spike proteins from a viral infection are moving freely throughout the circulatory system and causing tremendous damage to peoples’ organs. Getting vaccinated is the far better option than toughing it out with an infection.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter
  91. joniel says:

    Covid-19 has mutated so much in 18 months that proven treatments are often failing, says head of Moscow’s top virus hospital

    https://www.rt.com/russia/526313-covid-mutated-virus-treatment/

    Is it the Indian variant? Or a new Russian variant? It seems a lot deadlier than last years.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  92. “and dying because you are too lazy, paranoid, and/or have had your brain destroyed by conspiracy theories to get vaccinated.”

    I think it’s the other way around, the author has absorbed too much pro-vax paranoia. I ask him, where are the millions of people dying on the street that we have been told there would be by the experts at WHO and their henchmen in various western countries? Why is it that the normal influenza rates been totally ignored by the governments and media in the past two winter seasons? I’ll tell him why, all the “normal” respiratory disease statistics have been lumped together to increase the covid statistics. Perhaps the author is a bit too young to have become immune to the BS that the former Soviet government put out and see the same BS being put forth by the various western governments about covid.

  93. @Max Payne

    This being a lab made virus is getting more lethal instead of less with time.

    I also had covid last October and for me it was a very mild flu,everyone else in my company who had it last year(approximately 50) also recovered with no serious complications.I post recovery was firmly in the ‘this is all just a hype/How could they shut down the country for this’ camp.

    I actually vacationed in Goa early this year.

    But this second wave due to this new variant was lethal.There are 5 people I know who are otherwise fit and in their 30s (one frequently ran half marathons) who died within days of being diagnosed with Covid.The ones who got inoculated with the AstraZeneca vaccine all survived with mild symptoms including those above 60 and with serious comormidities like Asthma.

    I used to be dismissive of vaccines too and was in no particular hurry to get inoculated but in light of the overwhelming evidence of its utility have taken a shot of AstraZeneca..

    • Thanks: AP
    • Replies: @Max Payne
  94. Why is this thread filled with antivaxxers?

    • Replies: @Svevlad
  95. @g wiltek

    “Ahm jus’ gonna listen to muh body.” Like that’s going to tell you everything (or even anything) you need to know, lol.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
  96. Ximenes says:
    @Beckow

    Maybe 90% of people in Russia are the smart ones. They may not have high IQ’s but have a higher Biological.

    I wonder how much of Russian anti-vaxx sentiment comes from memories of the Soviet medical system, which, for some reason, was similarly intrusive and tyrannical as the US system is today.

  97. @melanf

    This is a pretty useless table. The Pfizer and the Moderna vaccines were initially reserved for the elderly with chronic illnesses. Younger people with comorbidities were usually given the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Sinopharm was given to healthy old people and to younger people. The Sputnik vaccine was given mostly to fit young people. The cause of death is also unclear, it appears that it includes deaths from other causes.

    It’s even worse than that, because the Pfizer vaccine was started to be distributed early in January (or late December), the Sputnik only in February and mostly March and later. So simply those with the Sputnik had less time to get infected and die.

    But it perhaps does show something: the Sputnik V is probably not a poison.

    • Replies: @melanf
  98. @RadicalCenter

    If you had invested into Big Pharma, you would have lost money relative not just to investing in crypto or Big Tech, but even the market as a whole.

    This makes theories that vaccines are a Big Pharma money-making scheme hard to credit.

  99. @Finnishguy78

    I haven’t seen any convincing evidence that newer Corona strains are significantly more virulent, as opposed to just progressively more infectious.

    Is there any such evidence? I appreciate anecdotes, but anecdotes < statistics. (Also @ Vishnugupta).

    • Agree: utu, Blinky Bill
  100. utu says:
    @melanf

    You do not want to get my point. Karlin’s article is a blatant manipulation reflected in its title: Dying from Corona in Russia Has Long Been “Optional”. Russia does not have enough vaccines to cover those who need it. For this reason Kremlin does not promote vaccination as it should so it creates a false image of oversupply and instead Kremlin prays that more people become anti-vaxxers. Then people like Karlin can write that everything is hunky-dory while blaming stupidity of people who do not want to get vaccinated. If those who need it tried to get it most of them would be left empty handed. Dying is not optional in Russia.

    I admit that this lie is very cleverly constructed. Kremlin is very good at PR as far as their own population goes. People like Karlin dish it out and people like you eat it up. But however you disguise it and wrap it up a lie is a lie. In USSR they lied as well but at least when it came to vaccinations they did not tacitly promote obscurantist anti-vaxxer positions to deceive people that there is plenty of vaccines. This is very cynical and clever and I can see that this kind of lies is exactly what Karlin likes. Bu there is a price for it: you will end up having more misinformed idiots in your country who hopefully in the end will see through the lies and then will hang Karlin by his balls.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  101. utu says:
    @reiner Tor

    The same people who were making a big stink about the distinction between dying-with and dying-of virus see all the deaths that happens after vaccinations as belonging to the dying-of category.

  102. AP says:
    @utu

    It does appear likely that if everyone in Russia chose to get the vaccine there would be a shortage, but not enough are trying to get it so there is no problem for anyone who wants to get it, to get it.

    Karlin has been promoting the vaccine and encouraging people to get vaccinated from the beginning and posted about taking it himself. He has not been cynically discouraging people from getting vaccinated. How has he actually lied in a way that would promote anti-vaxxing in Russia or elsewhere?

    • Replies: @utu
    , @reiner Tor
  103. @Anatoly Karlin

    That’s quite fair enough, but as the concept of “priced in” suggests, valuations don’t always neatly track profitability, so valuations alone don’t answer the question of how profitable the vaccines have been for pharmaceutical companies. In any case, the vaccines are far from their sole sources of profit, so it’s theoretically perfectly possible to making a killing on vaccines but have other product lines experiencing poor sales at the same time.

  104. Mr. Hack says:
    @utu

    [MORE]

    All for promoting vaxing? Be careful Anatoly! 🙂

    • LOL: Sinotibetan
  105. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    long catch up to 2019 economic in the EU or UK)

    That is not true. UK GDP grows 2,7% in the last reported month (April) and lockdown is not ended, and this is despite the negative impact of Brexit. So in April it was 3,7% below the pre-pandemic level.

    It’s likely that pre-pandemic UK GDP will be re-attained this summer, when lockdown will be lifted fully. It’s possible it will be even by the end of July. https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/uk-economy-gathered-momentum-in-april-as-gdp-rose-2-3-1.4590495

    So the lockdowns simply temporarily and often tautologically impact GDP, with recovery to pre-pandemic level seen to be co-eval with full lifting of lockdowns.

    more debt compared to before pandemic trajectories.

    Sure, the financial position of governments is significantly eroded compared to the non-pandemic scenario. But what is the raison d’être of a government to prioritize “strong financial position” during good times, if not for allowing it to have more space to maneuver during “bad times” events like pandemics.

    This is the kind of event (the last serious pandemic was in 1919) for which a government should have prepared.

    drop in TFR,

    If there will indeed be any drop caused by the lockdown (which is not clear at all), then it won’t effect actual fertility rates. TFR fluctuates up and down due to its design, while the real fertility rate is much less effected, and it is only the real fertility (not TFR) that will have an impact on future population size.

    no instant economic boom

    There is a crazt boom at the moment in areas like hi-tech investments. It’s not seeming very rational, but there is certainly an boom, and something like “crazy money”.

    For example, startups in Israel already raised $10,5 billion in 5 months this year. This is equivalent of all last year (and already last year was a record at half the speed). https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3909578,00.html

    Similar situations in India (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/indian-startups-raised-7-8-billion-in-first-four-months-of-2021/articleshow/82889825.cms), China, UK (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/29/uk-tech-firms-record-15bn-venture-capital-funding-unicorns-2020), etc.

  106. BlackFlag says:
    @Beckow

    Now a money question: can you clearly state whether you are in favour of vaccinating the young, or children? We can all agree on the elderly, but how about everyone else?

    A lot of countries are setting the age of vaccination at 12.
    https://www.wionews.com/world/covid-19-countries-that-are-vaccinating-children-against-deadly-virus-389192

    During the first wave of the pandemic in England, there were eight deaths in SARS-CoV-2 positive children, including four that were attributed to COVID-19, of which three were in children aged 10–15 years with severe underlying neurodisabilities.

    https://adc.bmj.com/content/early/2021/01/04/archdischild-2020-321225
    Only 1 healthy child died of COVID in the UK during the first wave which I guess killed about 57k people.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  107. Dmitry says:
    @reiner Tor

    Well I go past carparks of pharma companies, and their employees are buying nice cars. It seems like half of some of their employees are buying a Tesla this year.

    Similarly there can be viewed the billion dollar kinds of (a little sinister) offices they are building for their employees.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F1438d2e6-893a-11e9-abe3-2791ad0a81dd.jpg?crop=1279%2C720%2C0%2C67&resize=1180

    Which is to say, they are not exactly living like Saint Francis of Assisi.

    But I talking some times ago, to a chief executive of a multinational pharmaceutical corporation, and did not receive an intuition or “spidey sense”, that I was in front of an evil genius that had organized the coronavirus pandemic. He seems like a nice man, and he even goes to work by train. But, who knows, perhaps their ability to seem normal to naive outsiders like myselfe, is just another indication of the pharmaceutical workers’ dark Machiavellian talents.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  108. RodW says:

    These videos of people sticking things to themselves are rubbish. I haven’t had a vaccine, nor will I, but if I slap my iPhone onto the upper half of my pectoral where there’s no hair, it sticks there.

    I haven’t tried anything else because the point is already proven. It’s a combination of friction and suction.

    Note that you don’t see anyone with stuff hanging off their elbows which would be a convincing demonstration of true magnetism.

    Any ‘doctor’ who extrapolates anything from this without first noting that it’s a party trick is not worth listening to.

  109. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Hungary just like Czechia and Poland had any prospects of getting vaccines

    Nonetheless a more strict/serious lockdown, if even only in the beginning of this year, would have saved thousands of lives in Hungary, and allowed an earlier return to normal life, than what has happened.

    And Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, are all relatively successful in managing the pandemic, compared to what happened in Russia.

    And this continues now. For example, on the vaccination rollout:

    Russia is severely undercounted.

    Yes transparency of medical statistics provided during the pandemic, has been more like I would have expected in a third world country (which is an insult to many third world countries, that have been more transparent, despite less resources).

    Israel, Hungary and Russia deaths/million are 689

    Israel was totally incompetent in its delayed lockdown in the beginning of this year, resulting in thousands of additional deaths (disproportionately many of these final wave deaths were in the Arab Israeli population, which was slower to be vaccinated, reflecting low state capacity in areas). This was while authorities demonstrated high state capacity with the vaccination rollout, but the coalition government has delayed the final lockdown. The lockdown imposed in Israel in January was also far weaker than previous (strict and successful) lockdowns. It seemed that the vaccine rollout was providing false confidence and reducing pressure for the more effective lockdown that had been seen in Israel earlier in the pandemic.

    In Hungary, there seemed to be something similar, and the most deadly peaks of the pandemic, arrived after their politicians were self-clapping about their efficient vaccine rollout.

    intentional decision of feigning ineptitude, which in their cases did not take much effort,

    In Russia, where the disasters has been more than in Visegrad – in the beginning the response had seemed not bad by European average.

    Attempts to prevent the virus entering Russia had failed. As we were following on this blog. Re-reading our old posts, we were still trying to be optimistic in March 2020. https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-corona/#comment-3769819

    In end of April 2020, in Russia, the authorities follow responsible policies, to impose lockdown, and reduce the first wave of the virus (which has likely saved thousands of lives), pushing it into summer when spaces become ventilated.

    However, preparation for disaster begins at this time, because of the negative effect on the government’s approval rating. Responsible policies of the government (lockdown) appeared to result in the lowest presidential approval rating of all time.

    And from there, the disaster was prepared. When the inevitable autumn wave arrives, the government chose a more laissez-faire and liberal response, than was ever really followed in Sweden. In the excess deaths indicator, it seems there are by now more than half a million lives lost.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @utu
  110. @Dmitry

    TFR fluctuates up and down due to its design, while the real fertility rate is much less effected, and it is only the real fertility (not TFR) that will have an impact on future population size.

    It “fluctuates” [not in the way people usually think when they hear that word] in response to changes in real fertility. It is the sum of age-specific fertility rates, so if real fertility increases, how could this not show up in the TFR?

  111. Rich says:
    @Passer by

    What evidence do you have of long term damages from the virus? Many well credentialed scientists have written about potential long term harm from the gene therapy experiment you guys are pushing. Why do you ignore them and instead trust those who have a financial interest in pushing the shots? I’ll stick with the control group, you go with the experimental medication, in 1 or 3 years we should know who was right.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  112. melanf says:
    @reiner Tor

    This is a pretty useless table.

    Of course, such data can not be used to compare vaccines, I understand this very well. But these data (if they are correct) are suitable for refuting urban legends (“at my work, 12 people were vaccinated, 6 of them are now on a ventilator in the hospital, two have already died from coronavirus”)

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  113. @utu

    For this reason Kremlin does not promote vaccination as it should so it creates a false image of oversupply and instead Kremlin prays that more people become anti-vaxxers.

    How, exactly, does (1) clinics phoning up the elderly people attached to them weekly since around February/March begging them to come in to get vaccinated, (2) numerous public ads exhorting people to get Sputniked, including literally on the front banner of Gosuslugi, (3) what melanf said about employers paying their workers to get vaccinated, constitute “praying that more people become anti-vaxxers”?

    Bu there is a price for it: you will end up having more misinformed idiots in your country who hopefully in the end will see through the lies and then will hang Karlin by his balls.

    Your well-wishes are duly noted.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @reiner Tor
  114. @Dmitry

    Yes transparency of medical statistics provided during the pandemic, has been more like I would have expected in a third world country (which is an insult to many third world countries, that have been more transparent, despite less resources).

    Russia made a political decision to systematically massage the Corona mortality figures. I don’t support that, but there was a logic to that (maintaining a sense of normality, after containment failed anyway), and at the end of the day, it emerged that all national Corona statistics are not really internationally comparable and that the only reliable way to estimate Corona mortality is through excess deaths.

    And Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, are all relatively successful in managing the pandemic, compared to what happened in Russia.

    Country Total COVID-19 death rate Reported COVID-19 death rat

    Bulgaria 544.5 238.7

    Romania 455.6 147.5

    Slovakia 427.6 216.6
    Russian Federation 404.6 74.5
    Lithuania 395.1 141.7
    Poland 389.9 177.5
    Czechia 386.8 276.0
    Hungary 386.7 288.2

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/7-million-deaths-from-corona/

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  115. Beckow says:
    @BlackFlag

    There used to be societies that sacrificed children. It was done because children were helpless not because gods preferred it.

    The push to vaccinate children is the same: vaccinate children who are at zero risk from corona to theoretically prolong the lives of a few elderly by a few years. That’s he deal with the devil – it brings us back to the animal world.

    We live in a gerontocracy, it is not biologically sustainable. The people with no interest in offspring, with no families, are at the forefront of fanatically pushing vaccinating everyone. I suspect AK and his merry band of vax-pushers are not family people – it doesn’t matter to them, sacrifice the young, whatever, just keep elderly and hypochondriacs comfortable.

    This is conservative? How?

  116. Max Payne says:
    @Vishnugupta

    If the Gulf War taught me anything is bioweapon vaccines cause more problems than they solve. The so called “Gulf War syndrome”.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1569620/

    Assuming it was a bioweapon…. even so.

    A virus usually doesn’t evolve unless outside pressures/forces are forcing it to do so. This process happens over a long period of time.

    One might even argue these rushed vaccines are what is strengthening the virus to adapt to more lethal forms. As they seem to be the only strong outside force.

    Just saying…

    And I’m no pinnacle of health either. I’ve abused my body in a lot of ways.

    Guess we’ll find out in 5 years. By then Cyberpunk 2077 should have its multiplayer feature released and be on patch 3.79.1563f…

  117. utu says:
    @AP

    So how do you explain the fact that vaccination rate in Russia is steady, so the function of vaccinated vs. time remains linear?

    Why is it that in one week of April the same number of people got vaccinated as in one week of June? The vaccination in Russia is controlled by vaccine supply not by vaccine demand. The alleged phenomenon of waning public interest in vaccination that Kremlin and Karlin are trying to make us believe in would imply reaching a point where the curve bend with negative 2nd derivative. In the US the curve bending began in mid April when the number of vaccinated was 40%. This is when the curve began to be controlled by the demand.

    So how is it done that week after week for last 8 weeks the same number of people get vaccinated each week? Why people who got vaccinate in June did not get vaccinated in April? Why did they wait 8 weeks? What made them suddenly get up in June and go to get vaccinated? It is simple: there is a hidden rationing of vaccine while Karlin tries to make us believe that everybody can just walk in. Few can but most people who want to get vaccinated must wait for their turn through some signing up process just like it is being done in other countries where in order not to overwhelm the system people of special groups and ages were permitted to sign up for vaccination and the vaccination date is assigned to them.

    It is really sad that Karlin is willing to libel his compatriots with accusation of obscurantism and anti-vaxxers idiocies in order to hide the fact that there is vaccine shortage in Russia, that Russia has no production capacity to satisfy the demand. A proud nationalist who for the sake of Kremlin arse covering PR is willing to paint 90% of his compatriots as idiots, the 90% who did not get vaccinated. They did not because they could not. Dying still is not optional in Russia!

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @AP
  118. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The vaccine is being rationed by signing up process. The number of vaccinated vs. time curve is still controlled by supply not demand. Dying still is not optional in Russia. See my comment #119 to AP.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  119. @Anatoly Karlin

    There is some evidence. Even anecdotal evidence is evidence (“my friends and acquaintances who got ill” is certainly a sample, even if not necessarily a very representative sample, but why exclude that piece of evidence when you don’t have quality statistics?), and certainly hospitals seem to see the exact same anecdotes:

    Those most recently in hospital in Bolton with Covid-19 coronavirus were “a lot younger” than in previous waves of the pandemic, an NHS boss has said.

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/delta-covid-variant-hotspot-seeing-20748024

    Of course there is one confounding factor that now a lot of people are vaccinated, especially among the elderly, so maybe it just reflects this, but I would say that with the initial Wuhan numbers saying that no one in his twenties was killed, it just has to be more virulent. At least it just seems so in the absence of high quality statistical data.

    As long as there’s nothing better you have to use anecdotal evidence, unless you have compelling reasons not to.

    • Replies: @Finnishguy78
  120. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    And Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, are all relatively successful in managing the pandemic, compared to what happened in Russia.

    They are all very bad. None of them is successful in any way. In case of Czechia, Slovakia and Poland the question is why did they abandon their approach in the second wave that was really working in the first wave? Was it just indolence and stupid premature celebration that the pandemic was gone or a quiet, calculated and cynical decision to go the Swedish way and do the old age genocide?

    Russia is not transparent enough for us to know what took place.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  121. melanf says:
    @utu

    So how do you explain the fact that vaccination rate in Russia is steady, so the function of vaccinated vs. time remains linear?….The vaccination in Russia is controlled by vaccine supply

    “The vaccination in Russia is controlled by vaccine supply” – this hypothesis is complete nonsense as it contradicts empirical observations. Come to Russia and go to the shopping center to see how the vaccination points work (alternatively, call these vaccination points and find out what you need to get vaccinated). If you do not want to do this, it is better to stop posting conspiracy theories here

    In addition, the rate of vaccination changes-here is a graph of the average number of vaccinated per week

    https://gogov.ru/articles/covid-v-stats

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @utu
  122. @AP

    Especially when only very few Russians are reading Karlin, and those are not anti-vaxxers at all, because this is an English blog.

  123. @Anatoly Karlin

    I think one big failure was Putin not getting the vaccine for a long time, and then not in front of cameras.

    It could have a very mundane reason, like Putin having an irrational fear of needless. I know an otherwise fit guy who doesn’t seem very cowardly or anything, but he cannot stand blood or needles, and turns pale whenever he sees something like that. (Though I’m pretty sure that such irrational fears could be treated, it might be embarrassing for Putin, and most people having it just treat it as a kind of personality quirk.)

    • Replies: @melanf
  124. melanf says:
    @reiner Tor

    I think one big failure was Putin not getting the vaccine for a long time, and then not in front of cameras.

    This is undoubtedly a great failure personally for Putin, but it has had a negligible effect on the rate of vaccination

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  125. @reiner Tor

    And for example in Brazil thousands of children have died to covid, which was not the case in first wave and still is not the case in most countries where brazilian strain is not dominant.
    So it certainly seems like that brazilian strain is more fatal.
    British strain seems not to be much fatal or south-african strain. Dont know yet if indian strain is more fatal, it might be too..

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  126. Pericles says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It could of course be an unsuccessful money making scheme.

  127. @RodW

    The choice is to either get the vaccine or the virus. You cannot avoid the virus unless you get vaccinated. Well unless everyone else gets vaccinated, and then you can benefit from the herd immunity.

    I have also noticed that those opposed to the vaccines usually oppose other measures like masks. So what is your proposal to avoid getting infected with the virus? Because obviously you don’t think it’s the vaccine.

    • Replies: @RodW
  128. utu says:
    @melanf

    Oh what a tangled web we weave
    When first we practice to deceive

    There are lies and there is a subtle conspiracy. Karlin spreads Dmitry Peskov lies

    Russia lags behind others in its COVID-19 vaccination drive (May 3, 2021)
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-coronavirus-world-news-europe-health-3d166261cb9f80964c8ce1e1ef9a4525
    On April 28, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there are enough vaccines available in Russia, adding that demand was the defining factor in the country’s vaccination rate.

    and you seem to believe them.

    Pretty much all vaccines that were released for the internal market after passing the quality control have been used. The demand is obviously much higher. The responsible and dutiful citizens are waiting for appointments which they will get once more vaccine is available. The vaccination rate is around 10% so far because there was no vaccines for more. But once more vaccines are made available the vaccination rate will increase. You will see in July that vaccination rate will reach 20% or higher.

    Waiting lists for the shot remain long in places. In the Sverdlovsk region, the fifth most-populous in Russia, 178,000 people were on a wait list by mid-April, regional Deputy Health Minister Yekaterina Yutyaeva told AP.

    The conspiracy part is that Kremlin purposefully downplayed vaccination urgency to create a perception of vaccine abundance. Vaccine abundance is artificial.

    I don’t want to believe that Kremlin was behind social media anti-vaxxing campaign to reduce the demand, though everything is possible, but certainly Kremlin benefited from growing anti-vaxxing sentiments. Also the bad mouthing Western vaccines and their side effects in Russian media could have contribute to mistrust:

    Rumors about the alleged dangers of vaccines actually surged on social media in December, when Russia began administering the shots, and have continued steadily since then, said social anthropologist Alexandra Arkhipova.

    Kremlin did not start full speed vaccination campaign in media until late March:

    A proper media campaign promoting vaccinations didn’t begin on state TV until late March, observers and news reports note. Videos on the Channel 1 national network featured celebrities and other public figures talking about their experience but didn’t show them getting injected. President Vladimir Putin said he received the shot about the same time, but not on camera.

    And then there are mixed messages. Kremlin actions made people think that the pandemics is over:

    Dragan, the data analyst, says one possible explanation for the reluctance is the narrative from authorities that they have tamed the outbreak, even if that assessment might be premature.

    With most virus restrictions lifted and government officials praising the Kremlin’s pandemic response, few have motivation to get the shot, he said, citing an attitude of, “If the outbreak is over, why would I get vaccinated?”

    Government statistics say infections have stayed at about 8,000-9,000 per day nationwide, with 300-400 deaths recorded daily. But new cases have been steadily increasing in Moscow in the past month, exceeding 3,000 last week for the first time since January.

    Anyway, 30% and probably more people in Russia are willing to get vaccinated and with some nudging more will. But for this to happen vaccines must be made available first. The availability is limited by the production capacity in Russia. Not all batches pass the quality control. Possibly more vaccines will come from India which was licensed to produce Sputnik V.

  129. @Finnishguy78

    My brother works for a multinational with a huge office in India. Multiple people in their thirties have died there, though I don’t know how healthy (or not) they were.

  130. Pericles says:
    @Dmitry

    But, who knows, perhaps their ability to seem normal to naive outsiders like myselfe, is just another indication of the pharmaceutical workers’ dark Machiavellian talents.

    Executives usually do know how to talk to people and befriend them.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  131. @Pericles

    Yes, that’s correct.

    But there are many possible points here. Like Big Pharma started the pandemic. (Highly unlikely.) Big Pharma used a pandemic started by others to make profits. (Well, that’s what pharmaceutical companies are supposed to do.) The pandemic is false but is exaggerated by Big Pharma. (Is Big Pharma powerful enough for this?) There’s a conspiracy of many big firms including Big Pharma (and also other, more powerful industries like Big Tech) to exaggerate the pandemic. (Again, at least there should be competing interests, especially in other countries.) The vaccines don’t work. (None of them? Only some of them?)

    Probably dozens of such sentences could be written, many of them not compatible with the others, and some interlinked.

    So it’s a very general statement to say that it could be a failed money making scheme. Pharma CEOs could be reptilians (provided those even exist), but is there any evidence for that? They could also be wizards (but there’s no evidence wizards even exist). Or angels of God. (Provided those even exist.) Is there a reason to entertain the theory that it’s a failed money making scheme? Are there more reasons than to think that pharma CEOs are reptilians?

    I think a more specific hypothesis could be discussed better.

    But yes, they are not necessarily very good people (executives often have some slight psychopathic tendencies), and probably impressions got during a social conversation can be highly misleading about any CEO. Big Pharma might also be an industry which is perhaps worse, on average, than the rest. Though it’s interesting that AFAIK the overlap between the painkiller racket and the vaccine peddlers is not that large.

  132. Pericles says:

    Is there a reason to entertain the theory that it’s a failed money making scheme? Are there more reasons than to think that pharma CEOs are reptilians?

    Please note it was our esteemed host who dismissed the possibility that this was a money making scheme because it didn’t seem to make money. But failure of money making does not imply money making was never intended. In addition, we don’t know what the fiscal outcome will be.

    I’ll leave your long list of perhapses for another time, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps even another era.

    As to reptilians, well …

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  133. Dreadilk says:
    @The Alarmist

    Not enough comments but this is a hard agree.

    • Thanks: The Alarmist
  134. @joniel

    If you look just at official RF coronastats, dying rate is simply relentless slow motion trainwreck over there, even if not super high and mainly flatlined. But it is constant and neverending so far.

  135. melanf says:
    @utu

    The vaccination rate is around 10% so far because there was no vaccines for more.

    I’m sorry, but this is completely ridiculous. 10% is vaccination rate with two doses of the vaccine. If the reason was a lack of vaccine – it was possible to vaccinate only the first dose (which is easier to produce). According to Argentine data https://www.diariocontexto.com.ar/2021/06/02/estudio-revelo-que-la-sputnik-v-tiene-una-efectividad-con-una-sola-dosis-de-786/ , the first dose of Sputnik had an efficiency of 76% among the elderly-and
    this is a very good efficiency.

    In addition many millions of doses of the vaccine are sold abroad

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @utu
  136. @melanf

    It’s not a big effect, but anecdotally speaking, I don’t think it is entirely negligible. A number of the “Putler wants to genocide the pensioners with vaccines” people have cited it as “proof” for their theories.

    In fairness if it was not this it would probably be some other nonsense, when Putin did get the vaccine, their new tack was that it was a placebo.

  137. @melanf

    Is there any data available (no matter independent or by designers/makers themselves) about Sputnik’s efficacy against variants?

    • Replies: @melanf
  138. @utu

    If clinics were calling pensioners urging them to come in for a shot, and it emerged that there were not enough shots for them, there would be a scandal. There were no such scandals, except a few months ago on highly temporary and local scales, so it is clearly not a supply issue. In any case, as I have repeatedly said and melanf and other Russians (who live in Russia, unlike Dmitry) have confirmed, there are multiple locations across Russian cities offering walk-in vaccinations, the problem is not excessive demand for them but that they are empty. This also explains why Sputnik is exported but doesn’t produce a political scandal, which it certainly would if it impacted on domestic Russian supply; in any case, virtually all of the exports that have occured have been of the first dose of the Sputnik V, which is much easier to produce than the second.

    Your pivot in response to this is bizarre accusations that the Kremlin is spreading anti-vaxx propaganda to constrain demand and that I (of all people) are helping them with it. In reality, as opposed to your fantasy world, there is a long-running propaganda campaign to spread awareness and encourage people to get the shot. I have attached a screenshot of Gosuslugi (the electronic state services website used by millions of Russians) shilling vaccinations, here is a poster (similar ones have been hanging in this location for months) just outside my apartment which I pass near every day.

    But it’s funny (and telling) how your rage is focused against me specifically, as opposed to the sovok anti-vaxx conspiracy theorists and the West-worshipping liberasts who hate Sputnik just because it is Russian, and who actually dominate the anti-vaxx discourse in Russia. An example of the latter type, posted to /r/europe a few days ago:

    Anecdotal experience of course, but I have a Russian friend. He’s not sure to get vaccinated, but if he does it will categorically not be with Sputnik. He trusts the Russian vaccine the least.

    That is because you politically endorse such sentiments, you desire the overthrow of Putin and the subjugation of Russia, and my own personal liquidation as a thorn in the foot of Western Supremacism. You should at least be honest about your agenda.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  139. @reiner Tor

    140-odd references – did I miss the reference to the Danish study or is it not there? That’s my yardstick for a mask review: you can argue source control if you want (lol) and you can even argue masks protect the wearer, but you at least need to account for the Danish study somehow. If you just ignore it, you deserve to be ignored in turn.

    What discussion?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  140. utu says:
    @melanf

    I get this impression that you are no longer sincere. You know you have no arguments left so you opted for making few random noises.

    Whatever was slated for internal use in Russia for this period by Kremlin decisions has been fully utilized. And more will be utilized as more supplies will be coming. I predict that by the end of July 20% prevalence will be reached providing that Kremlin slates at least 5o% of vaccine production for the domestic use.

    Kremlin decided to sell almost 50% of its production to other countries is another though related issue. It tells you about Kremlin priorities that Kremlin prefers doing international PR and making few bucks over helping Russians by providing more vaccines. If Kremlin was more concerned with Russians almost 20% of Russians would have been vaccinated by now. And you would not need silly Karlin stories that anti-vaxxer body snatchers took over 90% of Russians.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Levtraro
    , @melanf
  141. @reiner Tor

    Oh, it’s a deadly bioweapon now?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  142. @utu

    With the crucial difference being that deaths with vaccine need to be investigated, hence are all potentially deaths of vaccine; whereas with deaths with and from the virus, we already have a large dataset from which to draw conclusions. The vaccine needs to be confirmed safe and effective before being given to everybody – first, do no harm – even if it is necessary (it isn’t)

  143. @Anatoly Karlin

    the sovok anti-vaxx conspiracy theorists

    Why those are even a thing though? I mean USSR had strict mandatory vaxing, including small children, for many diseases and all of the supposedly antivax sovoks and their children should have been vaxed too, thus being antivax should run contrary against Soviet nostalgia? Or are they somehow opposed just to modern “bad” vaxing, while old Soviet vaxing was “good”?

  144. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If clinics were calling pensioners urging them to come in for a shot, and it emerged that there were not enough shots for them, there would be a scandal. – Tell me why clinics would make appointments if they had no shots? They arrange appointments within available allotment, say minus 5%, of vaccine. That’s how vaccine is rationed in the supply driven market to maintain the appearance of abundant availability. That people who want to be vaccinated do not do walk-ins is because people, who want to be vaccinated are planners, they wait for their turn after making appointments and probably they have heard of cases of people being told that vaccine was no longer available on a given today when they did a walk-in.

    “that I (of all people) are helping them with it” – I did not accuse you for anti-vaxxer propaganda. I accused you of using anti-vaxxers as an excused for Kremlin’s failure to provide more vaccines which Kremlin had but decided to export it for the PR glory and few bucks.

    “…how your rage is focused against me specifically, as opposed to the sovok anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist..” – It is easer to understand and excuse stupid people than excuse lies from people with sufficient intelligence and moral capacity to know better.

    “That is because you politically endorse such sentiments” – There is some rationality behind such sentiments. Only about 30 millions people were vaccinated with Russian vaccines in the world which is an order of magnitude less than for Western vaccines. And BTW, you participated in the vaccine trials. Did you get vaccine certificate or were you in placebo group?

    “my own personal liquidation as a thorn in the foot of Western Supremacism” – Do not exaggerate your importance. Beside you have a great potential for being reformed in rehabilitation centers.

  145. @Pericles

    It didn’t make a lot of money (certainly not much if the industry had the power to shut down society or anything similar), and it was foreseeable. (Politicians wouldn’t allow that under any scenario.) I think it’s a good enough argument and it still stands.

    Also it’s incompatible (or at least difficult to reconcile) with these theories, or at least most of them. “Big Pharma is powerful enough to force the planet to get vaccinated with dangerous and useless vaccines, only to make money, but it isn’t powerful enough to negotiate a high enough price to actually make some real money.”

    • Replies: @Pericles
  146. @Anatoly Karlin

    This makes theories that vaccines are a Big Pharma money-making scheme hard to credit.

    Well, they are a Big Pharma money-making scheme. They’re not free.

    I think you mean that the virus is not a Big Pharma money-making scheme, and I’m happy to agree. Although I didn’t see anyone here arguing that it was.

    If you had invested into Big Pharma, you would have lost money relative not just to investing in crypto or Big Tech, but even the market as a whole.

    If you’d invested in Moderna or BioNTech pre-pandemic, you’d have more than doubled your money.

    A couple of years ago Moderna was publicly being compared to Theranos and struggling to explain themselves to investors; in 2020, with lower standards at the FDA, suddenly mRNA managed to pass safety trials and make it to market. That’s not necessarily conspiracy, that’s just opportunism.

  147. @AP

    Last time I saw a strawman that big, Edward Woodward was locked in its chest

    • Replies: @AP
  148. @Anatoly Karlin

    English version of RT is giving every day anti-vaxx, anti lockdown propaganda for some reason though.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  149. @Finnishguy78

    Well I obviously don’t speak for RT, nor do I watch it for that matter. If that is an accurate assessment, then anti-vaxx propaganda is bad. Being anti-lockdown now is common sense.

  150. AP says:
    @utu

    The numbers on this chart are compelling. On the other hand, I too can confirm that at least in Moscow there is no problem for anyone to get a vaccine if they want to. I also know numerous Russians (in the West) who refuse to get vaccinated. One, a physician, left her job at a (Western) hospital rather than get vaccinated. So anti-vaxx sentiment is widespread and doesn’t depend on the Russian government, it reflects attitudes that precede recent events.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  151. You know what I detect in this post? Emotion. You must free yourself, Tolya, from your emotional investment in this subject. Yes, you called the China Virus early, and yes it did ‘crater the global economy and kill millions”, though perhaps what has happened is among the most mild scenarios that technically fulfill that broad forecast.

    There’s simply no way to understand the long term properties of these vaccines, until long term studies are done. Even then, it’s easy to imagine small-effect-size harms that don’t get picked up in studies. So people are totally rational for not getting the vaccine, for a virus that isn’t especially deadly, isn’t even worse than the flu if you take your HCQ, even for healthy old people. If you’re an unhealthy oldie? Well, we all die. In any case, little is accomplished approaching the subject with such a transparent bias.

  152. AP says:
    @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    It follows the pattern. “Telling me what to do it bad. People doing it must be making money off of it.”

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  153. @AP

    Moreover, as I pointed out, Moscow isn’t even exceptional in vaccination rate, being only around the 66th percentile in that respect relative to other regions. (This was not the case in, say, Jan-Feb, when supply constraints obviously did play a dominant role).

    This is not the pattern one would expect if supply constraints were a factor.

    ***

    The actual constraint:

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Demografie
  154. Svevlad says:
    @E. Harding

    Due to elite retardation, the entire planet has been turned into a low trust society.

    The simplest possible answer.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  155. RodW says:
    @reiner Tor

    You cannot avoid the virus unless you get vaccinated.

    Well, I seem to have avoided it for a year and a half by taking a few reasonable precautions. In that time, I’ve met exactly two people who have had the virus and experienced mild symptoms.

    Your false dichotomy is “be infected or take the vaccine” where taking the vaccine is a sure way of receiving something potentially sinister directly from a lab versus a slight chance of receiving something that probably originated in a lab that has gone through numerous mutations in human hosts. I’m gambling on the latter. So far it’s been a safe bet.

    Your straw man is that we “trust this artificially enhanced chimerical virus”. We don’t trust it at all, and earnestly want to know what it is, who made it, and why. And we’re loath to take the ‘cure’ for it before we know the cause of it.

    Also there’s no way of knowing yet what the vaccine does. I for one will wait and see. I don’t know anyone who has died from Covid, but I know one person who has suffered horribly from the vaccine. That’s the dataset that informs my decision.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @silviosilver
  156. Mersaux says:

    Maybe the Kremlin lying about Corona mortality convinced many Russians that the Kremlin lies about sputnik vaccine danger too

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  157. @Mersaux

    These statistical manipulations aren’t widely known. Those who do know about them (e.g. people who understand what “excess mortality” means and/or follow certain data bloggers) are not the types who would be anti-vaxxers in the first place.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    , @melanf
  158. @76239

    True, Big Pharma companies have vested interests.
    However, it’s not true that SARS-CoV-2 has not been proven to exist(Covid 19 is the disease or syndrome , the infectious agent is SARS-CoV-2).
    If you meant SARS-CoV-2 failed to fulfill traditional Koch’s postulates, consider this article from Reuters:-
    https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-koch-idUSL2N2L23F1

    Some articles :-
    1.) Electromicrograph of SARS-CoV-2 grown on Vero cells.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-73162-5

    2.) Finding of coronavirus virions on pathological samples.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41379-021-00793-y

    We can indeed argue about the lethality of this virus , on whether this pandemic is as catastrophic as mainstream media bleats continuously or it’s just like seasonal influenza(personally I think Covid 19 is slightly more lethal than seasonal influenza but not at the level of mass hysteria the likes of CNN , BBC , Al Jazeera bla bla). I would also mention that Covid 19 lethality is probably much reduced due to modern medicine/healthcare + public health measures. It might have been more lethal, say if the pandemic occured in the 19th century. However, the virus and the disease itself is real. As I have commented before sometime ago in another thread , if the next pandemic comes with the lethality of Nipahvirus and the infectiousness and asymptomatic carrier state like SARS-CoV-2, this pandemic will be nothing compared to the massive mortality that such a hypothetical virus will cause.

  159. Mr. Hack says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Some of the more prevalent reasons that I hear regarding anti-vaxing is related to some sort of fear of ingesting pathogens that will appear later in life and damage the healthy functioning of bodily processes. I probably could use language that more accurately reflects their fears, but I think you know what I’m writing about here. Could you better explain what these fears center around, and do you give them much credence?

    • Replies: @joniel
  160. @Beckow

    I think you raise valid points. My position is – I am neither an anti-vaxxer nor a pro-vaxxer. There should be some rationality in the vaccination drive. The main issues with Covid-19 are these :-
    1. “High risk groups” develop severe disease with significant morbidity and mortality.
    2. The tendency for healthcare to be overwhelmed with moderate to severe Covid-19 patients which would compromise healthcare for both Covid and non Covid patients.
    So, it makes sense for high risk groups be recommended to receive Covid vaccines. And I think the “high risk groups” should be defined : elderly(more than 60 yo?), those with certain medical co-morbidities(eg cardiovascular disease, pulmonary conditions, cancer), healthcare workers(potential exposure to massive doses of the virus if they care for undiagnosed Covid patients )?

    So far, toddlers and the young don’t seem to get severe disease(although some pulmonologist friends of mine have anecdotally mentioned more severe and fatal cases of Covid in the young in my country of late) – so probably not really recommended for massive Covid vaccination.

    Ultimately, the public should be given basic information regarding the risks and benefits of all the different types of vaccines , information about risk groups and estimated risk of severe disease/mortality : then let each individual decide for themselves. I deplore the scaremongering tactics of politicians and mainstream media.

    If we can get just the high risk groups to vaccinate, I think the mortality will reduce, the healthcare will not be overwhelmed with severe Covid patients(and thus improve the survival of these patients) and the world might actually be back to almost a pre-covid normalcy. And at the same time, scientists should not just rely on Covid vaccines -research on understanding the pathophysiology of the disease should continue : developing anti virals and anti cytokine storm agents should be the aim.

  161. @RodW

    I seem to have avoided it for a year and a half by taking a few reasonable precautions

    Well so far I haven’t been infected either, but my plan is to live longer than one and a half years (or even decades), and I don’t want to continue doing all precautions (including things like never or extremely rarely dining out), certainly not indefinitely.

    I’ve met exactly two people who have had the virus and experienced mild symptoms.

    Well this means that you are either a hermit or in some weird place like New Zealand or Taiwan. Neither is applicable to me, and this also makes your achievement of not getting infected that much less impressive. For the rest of us, the only realistic long term way of not getting infected is getting vaccinated.

    • Replies: @joniel
    , @Beckow
    , @RodW
  162. @Anatoly Karlin

    Just come back from party where were few Russian imigrants. Non of them would like to get vaccinated. Not even Pfizer. Reason 1001 why you need to control media. Nobody even debate them. Like ok whatever.

  163. joniel says:
    @Mr. Hack

    The conspiracy I hear most is that the vaccines produce a spike protein, which is toxic to most cells. The second part is true, but the first is not entirely so.

    “Now we get to a key difference: when a cell gets the effect of an mRNA nanoparticle or an adenovirus vector, it of course starts to express the Spike protein. But instead of that being assembled into more infectious viral particles, as would happen in a real coronavirus infection, this protein gets moved up to the surface of the cell, where it stays. That’s where it’s presented to the immune system, as an abnormal intruding protein on a cell surface. The Spike protein is not released to wander freely through the bloodstream by itself, because it has a transmembrane anchor region that (as the name implies) leaves it stuck. That’s how it sits in the virus itself, and it does the same in human cells. See the discussion in this paper on the development of the Moderna vaccine, and the same applies to all the mRNA and vector vaccines that produce the Spike. You certainly don’t have the real-infection situation of Spike-covered viruses washing along everywhere through the circulation. The Spike protein produced by vaccination is not released in a way that it gets to encounter the ACE2 proteins on the surface of other human cells at all: it’s sitting on the surface of muscle and lymphatic cells up in your shoulder, not wandering through your lungs causing trouble.”

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/04/spike-protein-behavior

    If you don’t get the vaccine, then you will have virus particles with the spike protein attacking any cell they can get a hold of. So vaccine >>>> natural infection.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  164. joniel says:
    @reiner Tor

    Taiwan is losing control over the virus. This may be because of the Indian variant, or it may be because they are stuck in the dark ages of testing. (It takes about 9 days to get the results of your test back.) Also, they can only get vaccines from mainland China, which is probably not going to send any.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  165. @AP

    Do you really believe that government mandates are never motivated in part by financial gain for the government‘s officials, donors, and elites? Your comments reflect intelligence and not undue naivete, so I would think we are generally on the same page here.

    As for helmets, one needs to buy a helmet once as an adult, but one needs to get these vaccines many times: one or two shots to start, depending on the vaccine, then booster shots periodically perhaps annually. One doesn‘t keep buying new seat belts for the same vehicle every year or two either. The profit potential per person is far higher with mandatory vaccines than mandatory helmets and seat belts.

    The TOTAL profit to be made from vaccine mandates is also vastly higher than the profit to be made from seat belt mandates for another reason: we don‘t have to buy another car / set of seat belts for every member of the family, merely 1-2 vehicles typically per household. But they are trying to force the vaccines on every person in the family, soon perhaps down to toddlers and little kids. (Example: our household has only one vehicle but more than half a dozen people).

    Also, a seat belt or helmet properly used can never harm the user, whereas even the best vaccines unavoidably harm some of their users. Wearing a seat belt or helmet can only protect the wearer. Requiring people to wear seat belts and helmets cannot do damage to their bodies or risk their lives, organ function, or fertility.

    Another distinction: governments, the vaccine manufacturers, and other corporations participating in the pandemic fear-blitz feel the need to employ a unique level of threatening, shaming, coercing, and bribing people into taking the vaccines when tens of millions of Americans find it unnecessary to get jabbed with these vaccines because

    (1) they reasonably conclude that the virus‘s lethality has been generally exaggerated (including through the attribution of accident, cancer, and other deaths to COVID-19, and through the use of a PCR test that is acknowledged to generate so many false positives that it is unreliable);

    And/or (2) they reasonably conclude that even the dishonest inflated COVID-19 death stats show very low risk of death or permanent damage for people in their particular age group and health condition, or

    (3) they think that the virus is somewhat more contagious and/or more lethal than most recent viruses, but still don‘t want to risk them and especially their children getting experimental vaccines. Such people may be willing to get a supposed covid-19 vaccine once it has gone through full trials and we have had more time to observe adverse events and figure out which are likely caused by the vaccine. Or they may be willing to get a covid-19 vaccine based on a more well-established mechanism of action.

    We use our seat belts all the time, and we have our kids wear helmets when biking or scootering. Why? Because we have rationally determined, for our own family, that seat belts and helmets offer life- and brain-saving benefits with zero possibility of harm or injury from wearing them. It’s a no-brainer. But we wouldn’t presume to threaten some other American with a fine, let alone jail time, because they choose not to wear a helmet or seat belt. (However, the law should allow motor-vehicle and personal-liability insurers to reduce payment if they can show that the insured’s injuries were more serious/costly than they likely would have been if they had worn a helmet or seat belt.)

    We don‘t wear helmets because we‘re required to and wouldn’t if that were the only „reason“ — just as we rarely wore masks where they were purportedly „required“ without legislation (through „executive orders“ of governors acting as dictators, and „orders“ of domineering health „authorities“ who have gotten too big for their britches) and with conflicting medical evidence about their efficacy and potential adverse effects.

    In short, AP, we see major material distinctions between these vaccines and seat belts and helmets, both in the weighing of likely protection versus plausible potential harm to our family, and in the total and per capita profits available to the manufacturers.

    ** So yes, the manufacturer of any good or service always has a strong financial incentive to push government to force us to buy that good or service. The financial incentive applies when the product is a seat belt or helmet, which we find always worth using and don’t need to be forced or shamed to use. But the incentive also applies — and much more strongly — for vaccines approved under emergency authorization for a badly exaggerated virus.

    Our objection is not that manufacturers would make money per se, but that they would make vast profits by selling products whose use is mandated based on lies, exaggeration, bullying, social pressure, and suppression of evidence and competing assessments.

    As for such a competing assessment of the virus by medical doctors and epidemiologists, please see Swiss Policy Project (www.swprs.org).

    • Replies: @Hunter
  166. @joniel

    Well I didn’t write it all that seriously, but obviously it reinforces my point.

  167. Unfortunately Russia looks increasingly like a second world repeat of what happened in India this April.

    A government/population which is lulled into complacency due to a relatively mild first wave and then a disastrous second wave.

    On top of that very recklessly Russia has not temporarily stopped tourists from India like most countries(in fact there is now some sort of a visa on arrival travel arrangement for tour groups) so there are presently a record number of Indian tourists in Russia now(Mostly Moscow and Spb) since it is pretty much the only option for a foreign vacation.

    I hope the Russians have enough oxygen supplies preferably oxygen generating plants at hospitals as this wave killed primarily due to a virtually overnight 500% increase in medical oxygen demand and the resulting inability of the supply infrastructure to cope.

    • Disagree: RadicalCenter, Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @Philip Owen
  168. @Anatoly Karlin

    AK, we all have our weaknesses of personality and argument style, you and me included. You are resorting again to this arrogant, illogical trope: nobody can disagree with your medical expertise unless they’re “the type of person” who is unintelligent, ignorant, and can’t understand the terms used.

    As for the carelessly used general slur “anti-vaxxers”, let’s be more analytically precise:

    (1) the fact that someone opposes an EXPERIMENTAL-vaccine mandate doesn’t tell us whether they would oppose a mandate to take a non-experimental vaccine after longer, more rigorous trials and won normal rather than emergency authorization (my wife and I wouldn’t get non-experimental vax for this virus either, but it’s a separate issue and some people would);

    (2) the fact that someone opposes ANY covid-19 vaccine mandate (whether the vaccine has emergency experimental authorization or approval after full trials) doesn’t tell us how they assess the likely-risk/benefit ratio. People who place a relatively higher value on individual freedom of choice and liberty will more often oppose forcing other people to get these vaccines but may take it themselves (my sister and her husband are such people).

    (3) the fact that someone refuses to take any COVID-19 vaccine, experimental or not, doesn’t tell us what they think about other vaccines, or about the justice and prudence of mandating those other vaccines. You’d probably slur me and my wife and most of my family and friends as “anti-vaxxers.” But our circle of folks, like the general population, is otherwise pro-vaccine (even pro-vaccine-mandate) for many maladies — they split whether to mandate, and whether to take, the COVID-19 vaccines.

    We make up our minds anew in each case, as new viral threats arise and vaccines are developed in response — based on evidence and advice from doctors and epidemiologists, online and among our acquaintances. We consult your columns and some of the cited sources, too. We do this case-by-case analysis when deciding whether we and our children will get a new vaccine. We also do this analysis when deciding whether to support or oppose forcing other people to get that new vaccine.

    To conclude on a point similar to one made previously: some people with children are understandably not well disposed towards people who have no children but have plenty of opinions about what OUR children should be forced to do, where they should not be allowed to go, whom they should not be allowed to meet, where they should be allowed to stand, whether they should be allowed to play team sports, sing in church, play with other kids, hug their grandparents, even SEE their grandparents in person before they die, and so much more. It’s easy for someone who has no experience raising children to be a know-it-all about what those children need, to impair our kids’ education, socialization, health, and well-being and lecture us not to be selfish or stupid.

    People whose family businesses have been impaired or destroyed, whose life savings are gone, who face eviction or foreclosure once the repeated moratoria are allowed to lapse in the US, also don’t take kindly to someone who doesn’t own such a business and hasn’t suffered such devastating losses thanks to the lockdowns you favor. It’s all too easy for someone like you to tell them, “suck it up, tough luck, don’t be ‘selfish’ and ‘ignorant’ (‘cause hey, I’ve still got mine).”

    It’s good to see so many allegedly stupid and ignorant people trying to live free and breathe free in Russia. As for Russians reflexively distrusting whatever the government says, that shouldn’t be hard to fathom. Same for Americans who have come to presumptively distrust and disbelieve our rulers.

    In short, AK, you can make your points well — you do on other topics — without insulting everyone who disagrees with you.

    Nor do you need to throw around highly imprecise and often misleading slurs like “anti-vaxxers.” (Of the many people we know who refuse to get a covid-19 vaccine for themselves and their children, not a single one is opposed to all vaccination. Every one of them was glad to get their kids the vaccines for polio, rubella, etc. I was, too, given that my great-grandmother suffered from polio and was confined to a wheelchair for the 90-plus years of her life as a result, not uncommon back then.)

    Come on, man, you offer such a unique perspective and sense of humor, with varied interests, great writing in English — why ruin it by needlessly insulting people who disagree with you?

    Now get away from the screen, go outside into the sunlight and air, and take off that damn face-muffler. That’s what we’re gonna do right now. And without a mask, you can start smiling at the devushkas again. You’ll be more relaxed and can get busy repopulating Rodina 😉 Even your pandemic detractors like me are rooting for that. And the next time “the authorities” order a lockdown, for reasons real or exaggerated, you’ll see how it affects your own children. You might still suport that lockdown too, but you’ll have a different perspective and more relevant experience, and you might (I hope) assess the risks/benefits of lockdown differently.

    God bless you, AK, our countries, and everyone sincerely trying to ascertain the right and fair answers are to these questions.

    • Agree: Beckow
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Beckow
  169. Beckow says:
    @reiner Tor

    If your odds of surviving corona are as low as you say, accept my sympathies. For 90% of people the odds are better than a test MRNA vaccine that requires an annual booster shot.

    I know few people who had it, two died – one in his 80’s, one a fat man in his late 60’s with heart issues. For the others, the average sickness time was 4-5 days, many had minimal symptoms.

    The so called long-corona is hard to define. The reported symptoms of ‘loss of memory’ and ‘tiredness’ are too subjective to validate – some people play games or have psychological and material reasons to report it. The more serious long-term effects have not been shown. From a friend who is a heart-lung specialist: post-corona X-rays show roughly the same damage to lungs as pneumonia and don’t last. We don’t know for sure, but why experiment with our bodies?

    Given that, why would a healthy adult or child be vaccinated. What exactly are we trying to accomplish and at what risk? Is this about making elderly, obese and hypochondriacs feel better? That would be biological madness akin to ancient custom of sacrificing children. Sober up before it is too late.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  170. @Beckow

    If your odds of surviving corona are as low as you say

    I haven’t yet read your comment, but based on this sentence, you haven’t read mine either, since nowhere did I write anything about my odds of surviving corona. I wish you well!

    • Replies: @Beckow
  171. @RadicalCenter

    In short, AK, you can make your points well — you do on other topics — without insulting everyone who disagrees with you.

    Where did I insult anybody?

    All I said is that elderly anti-vaxxers can croak for all I care, no more lockdowns for them. You should be happy with and endorse this position.

  172. Beckow says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Agree. It is hard to understand why so many here – otherwise reflective, skeptical and rational even if we disagree – take the unthinking, dogmatic position take a shot or else. I have ascribed it to them taking the vaccine, they are committed. Whatever doubts they had before it’s too late, they want everyone with them.

    people with children are understandably not well disposed towards people who have no children but have plenty of opinions about what OUR children should be forced to do

    Precisely. It is mostly the people with no kids and no normal family lives, who are obsessive about telling others what to do. Dead-enders with no stake in the future. They are narcissists who put their own comfort above all else. Interestingly, many have conservative sympathies without understanding that we will only prevail by having families, by being normal, and not by words.

    One evolutionary reason that helps societies is grandparents who live long enough to help with grandkids. The ‘babushka’ effect. Today we have an unfortunate combination of elderly with no grandkids and no biological reason for longevity, but with plenty of assets, opinions and power. An ugly combination, barren spinsters in Junior High School harassing the young. (Maybe there was a reason for the witch trials in the past, it may come to that. The young always win.)

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  173. Beckow says:
    @reiner Tor

    Quoting you:

    …so far I haven’t been infected either, but my plan is to live longer than one and a half years (or even decades), and I don’t want to continue doing all precautions

    Can a reasonable person surmise that your fear getting corona? That suggests not very good odds on your part. (Maybe I am reading too much into it.)

    Is taking a shot once year an ok as a “precaution”? For a 35-year male that would be 50 or more shots. I took the measles shot, but would I take it once a year, year after year…

  174. Levtraro says:
    @utu

    Signing up to get vaccinated follows the principle of freedom of choice. Otherwise vaccination would have to be mandatory. So in various countries in western Europe they are sending SMSs to sign up for vaccination. Thus according to your “logic” there is rationing in those various European countries and therefore they want more anti-vaxxers. But there is no need to try to understand your “logic”. You are an obvious Russophobe so you are simply biased and your comments regarding anything Russia can be discarded as outside the scope of intellectual discussion.

    • Replies: @utu
  175. @Beckow

    unthinking, dogmatic position take a shot or else

    My position is simple. Take a shot or get infected with the virus. There is no third option in the long run. People might brag about having avoided contracting the virus so far, but people who plan on living several more decades inevitably need to know that they will either get infected or get vaccinated, there’s just no third option.

    You have made your decision, you trust the Wuhan lab gain of function research and their chimerical virus, but you don’t trust the BioNTech lab and its vaccine. I tend to think that the Wuhan lab tested its virus for its long term safety way less than Pfizer tested the BioNTech vaccine, but at the end of the day, we all have to choose one of these two poisons: the vaccine (there are usually many choices), or the virus. You cannot choose the option of having neither.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Beckow
  176. @ravin' lunatic

    Bret Weinstein’s interview of Pierre Kory (who has published a meta study on ivermectin) was zapped by youtube.

    So now, doctors with 100s of peer reviewed papers in high impact journals are silenced by 90 IQ big tech mods.

    • Replies: @BlackFlag
  177. Levtraro says:
    @utu

    Pretty much all vaccines that were released for the internal market after passing the quality control have been used.

    Hilarous. You pretend to know things that nobody knows except people high up in the Russian sanitary system, and even those people probably only know what’s happening in their region.

    Why are you posing as such a insider of the Russian sanitary system, knowing supply and demand and even the magnitude of products passing quality control? Lol!

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  178. @Beckow

    Can a reasonable person surmise that your fear getting corona?

    Depending on his reading comprehension or imagination, he can surmise many things. My point was simple: long term, you either get the vaccine, or you are going to get infected. The longer you are going to live, the higher the probability of getting infected.

    The commenter I answered to was bragging about how he managed to avoid it for… one and a half years. Well yes, it’s possible to avoid it for one and a half years. But what about one and a half decades? Or several decades?

    I took the measles shot, but would I take it once a year, year after year…

    Do you fear the needle? I donate blood two-three times a year, so fear of needles is not an issue for me.

    I will cross that bridge when I get there. I took the meningitis vaccine twelve years ago, and now I will have to take another one, because after ten years the protection is gone. The Pfizer BioNTech vaccine was developed over a year ago and it’s still good. So my guess is that it cannot be more frequent than biannual, and I would expect less.

  179. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    That is not true

    Search harder, almost everyone estimates UK recovery to 2019 levels by 2022.

    https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/06/bcc-forecast-uk-set-for-an-uneven-economic-recovery-despite-record-gdp-growth-2

    despite the negative impact of Brexit

    Recovery in the EU too is expected by 2022, see IMF data.

    So the lockdowns simply temporarily and often tautologically impact GDP,

    The impact was huge, thank god trillions were printed to cover it up. Before stimilus estimates were about -8,6 % GDP drop in the US, after trillions of dollars in stimulus it became -3,5 % drop.

    As per IMF, the global economy lost 2 years due to the pandemic. And that is with all the trillions in stimulus, otherwise you would have seen a great depression drop. And there are long term scarring effects, see various economists on the issue.

    Sure, the financial position of governments is significantly eroded compared to the non-pandemic scenario. But what is the raison d’être of a government to prioritize “strong financial position” during good times, if not for allowing it to have more space to maneuver during “bad times” events like pandemics.

    Very simple, the actual economic damage by the pandemic was huge, so it required trillions in government stimulus.

    If there will indeed be any drop caused by the lockdown (which is not clear at all)

    There is, see recent data for most countries. Although germanic Europe performed better in that regard.

    then it won’t effect actual fertility rates. TFR fluctuates up and down due to its design

    This is not what CBO demographers say. For the US, they estimate a hole that will not be compensated by future TFR spikes, rather a return to before pandemic TFR by 2026, thus worsening the demographic and fiscal situation of the US due to that.

    There is a crazt boom at the moment in areas like hi-tech investments. It’s not seeming very rational, but there is certainly an boom, and something like “crazy money”.

    Simple – the pandemic powers the IT sector via stay at home work, remote activities/transactions, people’s isolation from each other, etc. All of this causes virtualisation of society in order to avoid human contact, and that virtualisation powers the IT sector. Chinese tech exports benefited a lot from the pandemic too.

    The other reason is the huge amount of stimulus money floating around.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  180. Beckow says:
    @reiner Tor

    …There is no third option in the long run.

    That may or may not be true. But in 2-3 years we will know a lot more about possible vaccination side-effects, the vaccines will get better, and we will see whether the corona virus has legs. It is generally agreed that lab-produced viruses weaken over time.

    For the next 2-3 years the best choice is to do nothing and wait for more data. That is especially true for younger people who face minimal risk from corona. So go ahead and test it for us. (I suppose mice were not readily available.)

    Regarding Pfizer and Wuhan: I don’t trust either one. Why would anyone trust Pfizer is beyond me. They are selling the stuff with a waiver on consequences, governments even do the advertising for them. As a businessman wouldn’t you sit back, collect the money and stay quiet?

  181. @Beckow

    People don’t die of flu shots. Flu isn’t a huge concern, even for the elderly (1% mortality), but I don’t fancy risking losing a week or two of productivity every year, so most years I get the flu shot (in years I’m too lazy to do it, I tend to regret it). Corona is going to be the new flu, but about 1 OOM more lethal and with potentially more severe long-term effects. I certainly don’t fancy spending several months with all food smelling like lentils (which is what happened to one friend in his mid-20s who got Corona, irony of this being compounded by him being an Indophobe), so I certainly plan to be even more conscientious about taking Corona shots however frequently they are needed to avoid getting the real thing.

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
  182. Levtraro says:
    @utu

    I get this impression that you are no longer sincere.

    I get that from you.

    Whatever was slated for internal use in Russia for this period by Kremlin decisions has been fully utilized.

    How could you possibly know that? Are you an insider in the Russian sanitary system?

    In fact your rhetoric betrays you. When you say “Whatever was slated …” you mean to say “I don’t have a freaking idea of how many Sputnik-V vaccines were allocated to the Russian population but I assert that all have been used and supply is a problem”.

    I hope you see now the stupidity of your position. As I have noted in other comments of yours, you are just a Russophobe or you play that role.

  183. @Vishnugupta

    Idk how trustful estimates here could be, but if I’m reading it correctly, it is possible that B.1.617.2 (Indian/Delta) variant is dominating now in RF (over 60% of cases), so that could explain recent begining uptick, despite late spring/early summer, which should be unfavourable time in theory for the virus to spread:

    https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=RUS&selected=AY.1&selected=B.1.1.7&selected=B.1.1.7%20%2B%20S%3AE484K&selected=B.1.617.2

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @joniel
  184. joniel says:
    @sudden death

    This is behaving pretty consistently with the Indian variant:

    One third of COVID-19 patients in Moscow are young people, deputy mayor says

    https://tass.com/society/1302175

    With too many covidiots, Russia will be forced into mandatory vaccinations.

  185. @joniel

    One advantage is vaccine hesitancy tends to evaporate very quickly once you see 5-20 people you actually know well dead or hospitalized/ gasping for oxygen as opposed to 1-2 distant acquaintances you barely know as was the case with the first wave last year and I’m guessing is presently the case with most anti vaxxers on this blog.

    Another tip:Whole Viron vaccines (in India’s case Covaxin) have been anecdotally found to be basically useless against this variant.So if you have the option avoid Sinopharm etc.AstraZeneca performed superbly no one I know who got even one shot required oxygen support or serious medical attention.

  186. @joniel

    I wonder if it’s a good idea to short Aeroflot. Russia probably soon going into the red zone so far as international travel goes, so might as well make money off the covidiots.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  187. utu says:
    @Levtraro

    “Thus according to your “logic” there is rationing in those various European countries “

    Absolutely, there was rationing in Europe and USA in the beginning. They were vaccinating nurses, policemen, old people first. If you were in 40s you had to wait long time. For this reason the curves of vaccinated vs. time were linear (just like in Russian) until they opened vaccination to everybody and only then we could see the effect of demand controlling the curve that eventually caused bending of the curve.

    Where do you see Russophobia in my comments pointing out manipulation and lies of Kremlin and Karlin that are libeling Russians by painting them to be ignorant anti-vaxxers just to hide the fact that the supply of vaccines is inadequate because Kremlin preferred to send almost 50% of all produced vaccines abroad for few bucks and dubious international PR effect. If Kremlin released all produced vaccines for internal market almost 20% of Russians would have been vaccinated by now. And Karlin would not need to write deceitful article libeling 90% of Russians that they opted for dying because they are bunch of ignoramuses.

  188. @utu

    For the umpteenth time (though you seem to be dead-set on not getting it), Sputnik V has been accessible to everyone for more than a couple of months now. In Jan-Feb it was rationed for the elderly and critical workers, then opened up to everyone else once the non-covidiot pensioners had had their shots.

    The only result of your proposals would have been millions of the first Sputnik V dose (the easier to produce component that is actually exported) thrown away. The vaccination rate would still be the 13% or so that it is today.

    • Replies: @g2k
  189. Passer by says:
    @Rich

    Well, i have a relative that is now having memory problems and non-stop headache after Covid. Go and tell him that everything is fine.

    Covid kills brain cells. Plenty of studies on it. I guess its just the flu.

    As for Covid vaccines, there are all types of them, using all types of methods, including very old methods. Choose older method vaccine if you do not trust the newest vaccines.

    • Replies: @Rich
    , @RodW
  190. Mr. Hack says:
    @joniel

    Thanks for the great information, and it does go a long way in explaining how the vaccine works, but I still don’t think that you nor the article that you’ve cited answers my question about how the vaccine could somehow negatively effect the body’s healthy state in the future?

    In my own little world, I know of two elderly people (>75) who’ve taken a vaccine to protect themselves from covid-19, and may have experienced some otherwise negative reactions, including more memory loss. Still, I think that they were better off in getting vaccinated, as I fear that they would totally succumbed to the disease had they not gotten vaccinated.

  191. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    Oh, one more thing. Delaying child birth no longer fixes itself in developed countries due to “TFR fluctuations”, because women have children later and later in life. But their body is not made for it.

    In other words, older women delaying birth more and more causes women to run into secondary inferility issues (hard to have a second child when you first gave birth at 35), which has negative impact on TFR in the long run.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  192. It is probably to the Russian government’s advantage that takeup is modest. Russia has the science. It does not have the production capacity. Russia’s equipment is lab scale. Russian firms have 52 bioracotrs on order to ferment the carriers. They won’t be dleivered and set up to run quickly. Then there are the tens of millions of eggs of specific grades, laid in sanitary conditions that are needed. Right now, Russia importers eggs for hatching in its chicken farms.

    Only a few countries can make vaccine in quantity. Russia isn’t one of them yet. Neither are Italy and Canada. India can but has no worthwhile vaccine technology of its own. The cries of “patent free vaccines” are basically a ramp for India pharmaceutical manufacturers. Anyway, AZ and Sputnik V come patent free, for now, anyway. The production capacity issue is why Russia is pushing hard with countries that do make vaccines the old fashioned way. Russia can claw back some of the production.

  193. @Levtraro

    Russia has been open about these things.

  194. @Vishnugupta

    6 years ago there was not enough oxygen in most Russian hospitals. I looked at it for a company making oxygen generators. The new cardiac and obstetric units were of course supplied to world standards but there were and are still a lot of Soviet era buildings around. They have generators for individual patients but not so many and certainly no hospital wide supply systems.

  195. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    systematically massage

    ? Systematically lie.

    More than a year ago I was daily naively reading statistics from stopcoronavirus, and make graphs – I had imagined I was reading some accurate information..

    I self-imagine that I am cynical, but here as usually, reality was much worse than I assumed.

    In terms of the most important disaster (deaths), not many countries (except Central Asian states, Belarus, Nicaragua, Azerbaijan) looks like providing such inaccurate medical statistics as Moscow. https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality

    Country Total COVID-19 https://www.unz.com/akarlin/7-million-deaths-from-corona/

    This doesn’t seem reliable, as the example I posted in the comments below the article, where Japan had negative excess deaths in the reporting period.

    Here are at least three problems:

    1. Least accurate statistics provided except for Belarus and some third world countries like Tajikistan and Nicaragua.
    2. Third highest deaths per capita in Europe after Bulgaria and Serbia. Sixth highest per capita deaths in the world (after Peru, Bulgaria, Serbia, Ecuador).
    3. One of the slowest rollout of vaccine in Europe.

    And despite that not long ago in Soviet times, there was supposed to be (according to US assessment of the 1970s) the most powerful anti-epidemic state capacity in the world.

    By the way, in terms of the vaccination rollout. We know there were 33 million vaccine produced in middle May (15 million were sent to foreign countries).

    This exactly as I said in December: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/soviet-corona/#comment-4373311

    Putin says today there are 18 million people that are vaccinated. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4856393

    Although this is somewhat, mysterious “Putin numbers”, because a month ago he said 21,5 million were vaccinated.
    https://www.rbc.ru/society/10/05/2021/609925ab9a7947d08cf6236b

    Overall, numbers of people who are vaccinated, generally seems to match kind of numbers of vaccines reported to be produced, and available domestically.

    Vaccine production curve for Sputnik vaccine only ramps up this month (June 2021 is the ramp up), and therefore will become relevant something like “anti-vax sentiment” when the production of vaccines will be over 30 million per month.

    While many countries polled high for anti-vaccination sentiment last year, I haven’t seen evidence that the latter has a been serious problem for vaccination rollout in early stages this year in any of these countries (even France, where anti-vax sentiment was highest in polls). It might still become a problem for achieving herd immunity, as the rate of vaccination starts to climb to higher numbers. That is, if you need to vaccinated 70% of the population, then the anti-vax sentiment might begin to become a serious problem. But here we are talking about the early stages of the rollout (and in Russia, Sputnik vaccine production ramps up this month).

    sovok anti-vaxx

    In Soviet times, vaccination was compulsory according to law, and promotion of “anti-vax” views would have been illegal, outside of a scientific community. Polio was defeated by mass vaccination, and using a Albert Sabin vaccine America has initially refused to fund. Popularity of anti-vax idea, is a feature of contemporary postsoviet society, in which vaccination is not compulsory, because the authorities would consider it too unpopular to make people vaccinated. This in the context where the elite has been prioritizing its image management (for political stability) during a pandemic, and its policy choices in other ways has also appeared determined significantly by presidential ratings (e.g. the unpopularity of the lockdown of May 2020).

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  196. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    If fertility rates are below replacement, then raising the age of women at childbirth, will significantly increase the population ceteris paribus, for any future timepoint.

    Of course, this is the most simple logic, that a schoolchild knows, but in a more precise way was debated and resolved around a century ago. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jacques-Veron/publication/242359107_Alfred_J_Lotka_and_the_Mathematics_of_Population/links/59535f95aca272a343e5e066/Alfred-J-Lotka-and-the-Mathematics-of-Population.pdf

    People arguing about fertility rates, should use some minutes reading some papers of the 1920s-1930s, of summaries of them.

    negative impact on TFR

    TFR is the name of an estimator, that fluctuates (quite aggressively by design), not only due to changes of fertility rate. For the relevant input, population will be affected by the fertility rate.

    In real historical examples, we can see that fertility rate seems to be much less sensitive to temporary economic changes than you might have assumed.

  197. Rich says:
    @Passer by

    I know several people who have had very bad reactions to all three of the gene therapy shots available in the US. Relatives who work in the medical field tell me about people in the hospital right now with breathing and circulatory problems who took the shot. Everyone I know who was sick from covid has recovered and is doing fine. How do you argue with the well credentialed scientists who say there is a high probability of future problems from the mrna version? This medication was released faster than any previous shot, and under normal circumstances use would have been suspended due to the high rate of deaths and illness that have been reported after taking the shot. I understand the urge to follow the crowd, to do what your government tells you to do, but look who’s in charge, used car salesmen and this guy Fauci who gets rich off of pharmaceutical stocks and patents. You trust this crew? I’ll take my chances, ride it out, if you make it, you can say, “I told you so.” If I turn out to be right… Well we’ll see. In a year or 3.

  198. Dmitry says:
    @Passer by

    estimates UK recovery to 2019 levels by 2022.

    https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2021/06/bcc-forecast-uk-set-for-an-uneven-economic-recovery-despite-record-gdp-growth-2

    At the current trajectory, it could be recovered in August.

    This is because excluding some industries like travel and tourism, much of the nature of lockdown’s effect on GDP is tautological – closing shops, restaurants and preventing consumption.

    When the lockdown is ended, then in a tautological way, GDP returns to the previous level before the lockdown – minus the effect of the travel restriction.

    Again, this is talking about specific effect of the lockdown (not of reduction of the travel and tourism, which is not related to the decision for a lockdown).

    IMF, the global economy lost 2 years due to the pandemic.

    My point is about lockdowns, not the effect of travel restrictions and so on. (Although if a country was successfully able to restrict travel and tourism, then this reduces the necessity for the lockdown – especially if combined with regional quarantine, as we saw in China).

    The effect of the lockdowns on GDP is therefore temporary, and this is seen where they have been released. (That’s not to say the pandemic itself is only causing temporary effect; but I am talking about rather the collapse of GDP that is attributed to a lockdown).

    USA and China already returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels this summer. https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-us-gdp-growth-estimate-atlanta-federal-reserve-forecast-2021-5

    demographers say. For the US, they estimate a hole that will not be compensated by future TFR spikes, rather a return to before pandemic TFR

    Future population is not dependent on TFR measurements, as was known in the 1920s.

    First of all, we need to distinguish fertility rate from TRF (the latter is a estimator).

    Fertility rate is the most significant input in stable population theory, although not the only one.

    As for TFR, it is fun for journalists, as a very fluctuating and crude estimator, that is varying in accelerated way due to its design.

    Intuitively, a claim that long term population replacement will be effected by choosing a few months of lockdown (closing shops and online school classes, etc), seems quite implausible. While choosing the lockdown is saving thousands of lives in many examples.

    If we look at historical examples, there were more severe political and economic crises than a few months of lockdown repeated a couple of times, that do not effect on the eventual fertility trajectory in a country.

    andemic powers the IT sector via stay at home work, remote activities/transactions, people’s isolation from each other, etc. All of this causes virtualisation of society in order to avoid human contact, and that virtualisation powers the IT sector

    I wouldn’t say the main reason is increase in demand, but rather that the lockdowns (which involves close of shops, restaurants and schools) have not effected this sector.

    If a politician chooses lockdown (close shops, restaurants and schools) to manage the epidemic, then there will be a tautological collapse of GDP, but this a pause of consumption in those specific venues.

    Stopping people from eating in restaurants, will tautologically remove the restaurant component of the GDP in those months.

    Lockdowns and travel restrictions, have to some extent disrupted supply chains, that negatively effected even businesses like online shopping.

    But the effect of lockdown on many hi-tech industries, was only that the office has to re-configure some of its practices, reduction of meetings, and of many more people working from home. There was some months of adjustment and inconvenience, but most of capital already existed to allow people to continue working.

    As for crazy money and boom we are seeing now, it is surely partly related to government financial policy and stimulus.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  199. @Svevlad

    Clownworld exacerbates the problem, but it didn’t cause it. Fringe loons have always existed. (Since I’ve been alive anyway.) They’re passionate fuckers and there’s nothing they love more than accosting people with their unwanted opinions.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  200. @RodW

    taking the vaccine is a sure way of receiving something potentially sinister directly from a lab

    Directly from one of those dark, satanic labs. Scary shit.

  201. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    You take a flu-shot most years and seem to claim that it works. You use it as an analogy to Corona. Here is the actual statistic on flu shots from WebMD:

    On average, it’s been 40% effective, meaning it’s prevented illness 40% of the time. Since health officials started tracking it in 2003, effectiveness has varied from year to year, ranging from a low of 10% in 2004-05 to a high of 60% in 2010-11.

    What is one to think about argumentation like that? Am I missing something? The stuff about lentil smell is just weird, an ad hoc unverifiable story. In any case, changes to the smell sense would not be considered an epidemic at any point in human history. But since you took the shot, you would like everyone else to do it. We understand.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  202. SveVid says:

    Another pro vax propaganda post…by someone claiming he is intelligent. What a joke!

  203. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    These countries like Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Israel, were successful in terms of lockdown that has minimized the first wave.

    Disaster was in the second and third wave.

    However, they all have relatively been successful in terms of vaccine rollout (especially Israel and Hungary). But both Israel and Hungary had failed to install sufficient lockdown during the vaccine rollout.

    By comparison, in Russia and Ukraine, there was a combination of good fortune (to be not highly integrated with global travel) and successful lockdown policy to push the first wave into the summer. But since then, there has been only disasters.

    Russia is not transparent enough for us to know what took place.

    Disaster in Russia was not that complicated to follow.

    Initial attempts at travel restrictions sounded impressive, but was like a leaking sieve. I was posting comments from Facebook that showed this at the time.
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-corona/#comment-3769819

    However, government has responsibly locked down from late April (saving thousands of lives, pushing first wave into summer weather), however with very limited financial support to the population during this. As a result, was collapse of ratings and public discontent.

    In the first wave, the most stupid thing was lack of regionalized quarantine located specifically on Moscow, and the use of lockdown across regions of the country with very little virus. This was opposite of the Chinese experience, where they used regional lockdown against the area where the virus was spreading (Wuhan).

    There was a reduction of restrictions ahead plebiscite to “zero” Putin’s terms in June, and virus circulated through the summer at a low level.

    In addition, there has been very low information transparency. With inevitable second wave, the federal government has adopted a laissez-faire attitude, and allowed local government to decide, effectively allowed virus to pass through the population. This is like the supposed “Swedish policy”, that Boris Johnson had also seemed to propose earlier in 2020, before changing fortunately his direction.

    During the deadly second wave, local authorities have their own confusing regulations.

    For example, by December, activists were alerting police to breakup new year’ parties. But whatever were local different anti-epidemic, policies were increasingly confused, even in the way local journalists have understood them.

  204. @Anatoly Karlin

    I wouldn’t go public with your trading ideas. Not because someone is going to “steal your ideas,” but because it makes it that much harder to admit it if you’ve been wrong. That risk is greatly magnified in your case imo, because you like to sound smart and knowledgeable. On the other hand, hey, knock yourself out.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  205. RodW says:
    @Passer by

    I have a friend who got those issues, plus numbness of the extremities and a black tongue, from the Pfizer vaccine. She considered suicide for a while, and was recommended to kill herself by large numbers of malicious vaxxers.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  206. @RodW

    I totally believe this story. Fortunately at the end of the day she took a brave stand against the malicious vaxxers, and then everyone clapped.

  207. RodW says:
    @reiner Tor

    I live in Japan, where the disease is variously said to be being managed well or disastrously badly.

    Again you indulge in a straw man when you characterise me as ‘bragging’. I’m simply stating the facts of the matter.

    Since the start of the alleged pandemic, I’ve traveled all over Japan meeting strangers on business and eating and drinking with them. I’ve rarely worn a mask or sanitised my hands. I ask people wherever I go if they know anyone who has had the corona and their answers suggest that the disease exists only anecdotally. Note that I’m not denying that it exists. I’m only stating what observable facts indicate. In contrast, in a normal year, I usually know several people who get the flu.

    So it’s still a false dichotomy that you’re insisting on, especially since it isn’t known how much of any population has natural immunity to Covid-19. Nor has much attention been paid to the question as far as I can tell.

  208. g2k says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Hate to be devil’s advocate here, but, whilst anyone can get it relatively easily now, there’s obviously low demand, if everybody suddenly started becoming good citizens, would supply shortages not then start to be an issue? (That’s meant as a question, not a statement)

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  209. Pericles says:
    @reiner Tor

    (There seems to be something odd going on with the comment chain at the moment. Some of my replies seem to have turned into standalone comments? Ron Unz, please stop fiddling around with the code.)

    Also it’s incompatible (or at least difficult to reconcile) with these theories, or at least most of them. “Big Pharma is powerful enough to force the planet to get vaccinated with dangerous and useless vaccines, only to make money, but it isn’t powerful enough to negotiate a high enough price to actually make some real money.”

    Note that I was commenting on this statement:

    If you had invested into Big Pharma, you would have lost money relative not just to investing in crypto or Big Tech, but even the market as a whole.

    This makes theories that vaccines are a Big Pharma money-making scheme hard to credit.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  210. Pericles says:
    @silviosilver

    Clownworld exacerbates the problem, but it didn’t cause it. Fringe loons have always existed. (Since I’ve been alive anyway.) They’re passionate fuckers and there’s nothing they love more than accosting people with their unwanted opinions.

    Thing is, in Clown World, the fringe loons are embedded right in the center. The politicians, bureaucrats and media are passionate loons, which erodes public trust and leaves the field open for the former fringe loons to also have their say.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  211. @Pericles

    But that comment also contained a tweet about how politicians were never going to allow that. So the argument was more complex.

    Also, Big Pharma could force the useless vaccines on the governments to make money, but then it couldn’t force them to pay a higher price to actually make a decent profit? It’s just not likely.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  212. Pericles says:
    @reiner Tor

    Very well, let’s add that to the argument. Note that it’s still is just about vaccines, not about Big Pharma forcing society, etc. The way Big Pharma forced society was arguably in delaying the release of the vaccines until after the election, but in general society and government really wanted vaxx. Operation Warp Speed and all that.

    If you had invested into Big Pharma, you would have lost money relative not just to investing in crypto or Big Tech, but even the market as a whole.

    This makes theories that vaccines are a Big Pharma money-making scheme hard to credit.

    Vaccines were priced in. Populism was never going to allow Big Pharma to extract significant profits from Corona vaccines, so furthermore, it was never even going to be worth much in the first place.

    This still doesn’t show that developing a vaccine was not a money-making scheme. It seems like a quick low-cost project with a great deal of potential. Let us consider the various points above in order.

    Are you putting some hidden meaning on ‘money-making scheme’? I would expect them to make a quite tidy sum out of their vaccines, including more vaxxing to come, future booster shots, lack of liability and so on. It’s supposed to be an endemic disease now, isn’ it? Money: made.

    Or is the point that Big Pharma should have bought crypto or at least S&P 500 for their vaxx R&D budget? Possibly true yet unlikely unless your CEO or SVP Research is Elon Musk.

    Or that they should have terminated the project once they considered that governments might renege? But that would mean zero dollars revenue, truly not a money making scheme. Probably better to risk it, and perhaps the losses can be recovered by increasing shipping costs on account of the finicky supply chain.

    That seems to be the argument. But as far as I can see, it’s still a money making scheme, one that was intended as such.

  213. melanf says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    These statistical manipulations aren’t widely known. Those who do know about them (e.g. people who understand what “excess mortality”

    It’s not that simple here (about “manipulations”). Excess mortality includes

    1)people who (without being sick with coronavirus) died due to the fact that hospitals were overflowing with coronavirus patients
    2) people who successfully overcame the coronavirus, but died later (without being sick with coronavirus) from the effects of the coronavirus. According to the calculations of the journal Nature, such people are almost twice as likely to die from other diseases

  214. melanf says:
    @utu

    I get this impression that you are no longer sincere…

    The reality given to us in the observations is that I and the people I know were vaccinated without any problems months ago. Vaccinate everywhere without the slightest problems. These are facts that are available to direct observation (and not through telivisor and other media). From people (whom I know), I know that the same situation is all over the country.

    In most regions there are different programs to attract people to vaccination – people are given money for vaccination, food packages, tickets for performances, various bonuses, etc. Advertising of vaccination is everywhere – for example, when you buy a ticket for the train, the vending machine shows advertising of vaccination.

    I will not argue with you further, I am not interested in conspiracy theory

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  215. @Dmitry

    Russia has much higher anti-vaxx sentiment even than France, in international surveys, only Ukraine is lower. If only 40% even agree to it in principle, and most of that 40% is no rush to get it, then that’s sufficient to explain today’s rates.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  216. @Beckow

    You take a flu-shot most years and seem to claim that it works.

    Yes, it’s efficacy isn’t high, but if it does happen, symptoms are greatly reduced.

    The stuff about lentil smell is just weird, an ad hoc unverifiable story.

    Actually not an infrequently observed phenomenon (Parosmia).

    But since you took the shot, you would like everyone else to do it. We understand.

    No, as per above, I don’t care at this point.

    I am now just as fine with “everyone else” dying, hopefully the sooner the better, so that my local food court and gym stops closing down whenever there’s a new wave (like both have just today) and reducing my quality of life.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  217. @g2k

    Correct. But in that case, it is exports that are going to be squeezed. The demand surge will need to be 2x+ for supply constraints to kick in. A surge on that scale seems unlikely.

  218. @silviosilver

    I am pretty open about my gambling adventures: https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1396572521730805760

    Aeroflot short is too tempting not to do. I’ll stand behind it (though this shouldn’t be construed as financial advice): https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1404019709792731137

  219. I resent being vaccinated and still being formally obligated to wear a mask on the Metro and other public indoor places

    You shouldn’t resent it. Argentinian president Alberto Fernández took the Sputnik V and had Covid-19 with symptoms. That means he could transmit the virus (he recovered). So, wear a mask.

  220. @Anatoly Karlin

    Here’s a story that says Delta (Indian) is “more severe” (though it doesn’t explicitly use the word “deadly”, my take is that severity correlates with mortality):

    Gangrene, Hearing Loss Show Delta Variant May Be More Severe
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/gangrene-hearing-loss-point-to-delta-variant-being-more-severe

  221. melanf says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I haven’t seen any convincing evidence that newer Corona strains are significantly more virulent, as opposed to just progressively more infectious.

    Denis Logunov (the creator of Sputnik V) right now explained to the country’s leadership (at the state award ceremony) that the Indian strain is now the most dangerous, because it” deceives ” the immune system (including vaccine immunity – the vaccine protects, but less effectively)

    https://naked-science.ru/article/medicine/moscow-and-indian-strains-sars-cov-2

  222. @utu

    I don’t think your hypothesis is very likely.

    Moscow Announces Car Raffle to Boost Vaccination Drive
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/13/moscow-announces-car-raffle-to-boost-vaccination-drive-a74201

    Russia has been eager to sell vaccines to Brazil. We have at last authorized them for emergency use, but with some puzzling limiting quotas imposed by the regulating entity. So, if we are not importing more it’s probably not due to lack of availability.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    , @utu
  223. @GazaPlanet

    Unlikely, as the hospitals would have been quickly overwhelmed, making it impossible to treat any other illnesses there. Just remember, if hospitals are full of covid patients, not only would there be insufficient capacity to treat anyone else, but also the risk of infecting any other patient would be enormous. And who is covid the most dangerous for? Yes, people already hospitalized for some other illness are precisely the most vulnerable to covid.

  224. @Barack Obama's secret Unz account

    did I miss the reference to the Danish study or is it not there?

    Well it’s a meta-study from January, whereas the study you cited was AFAIK published in December, so the authors might not even have been aware of it when they wrote it. (Provided I found the same study you are referencing here, see my link below.)

    I also don’t think that the Danish Study is the be all, end all of science. My point last month was exactly that there are many studies, some of which are bad or not replicable.

    The DANMASK-19 study was of course a way more modest study than you claim. It’s certainly not the absolutely decisive science after which the only rational conclusion is to throw away your masks. For one, it did find a small (roughly 10%) reduction in risk, which is certainly not nothing, but it’s not statistically significant. Because a risk reduction of 20% would not even be detected by this study, due to the not large enough sample size. What this means in simple English is written out explicitly in the conclusions, that the “findings were inconclusive and cannot definitively exclude a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection of mask wearers in such a setting.” So it doesn’t mean that there is no risk reduction, rather it’s more likely that there is some risk reduction, but masks don’t give you a lot of protection, just some protection. (I’d have told you before that for free.)

    There are certain other issues.

    ”Compliance with wearing face masks was assessed, which is important in a public health intervention, with 46% of participants wearing the mask as recommended and 47% predominantly as recommended.”

    What this means is that the effects might be somewhat underestimated here, because many subjects were not wearing the masks properly. If I want to know how much masks improve my chances, then I would discard the people who didn’t always wear them properly.

    https://www.thebottomline.org.uk/summaries/danmask-19/

    you can argue source control if you want (lol)

    Here you are not being reasonable. If a person infected with the flu sneezed at you, would you rather he had a mask or you had? Obviously it the droplets reach your mask, they can find their way to your mouth or nose. It’s certainly not very difficult. But if they are stuck at the mask of the infected person?

    • Replies: @Beckow
  225. @Brás Cubas

    Russia has been eager to sell vaccines to Brazil. We have at last authorized them for emergency use, but with some puzzling limiting quotas imposed by the regulating entity. So, if we are not importing more it’s probably not due to lack of availability.

    Were those Sputnik quality issues found in Brazil (some live cold virus inside, capable to multiply, IIRC) resolved in new imported emergency use batches or those were same old, just regulating entity decided it was not that dangerous thing afterall?

    • Replies: @Brás Cubas
    , @melanf
  226. @sudden death

    To be frank, I didn’t quite reach an understanding of how that issue was resolved. But bear in mind that all the alleged problems raised by ANVISA (Brazilian CDC) were solely based on reading of the vaccine-related documents. No actual tests were performed. I would guess those alleged issues were not fully resolved, since now they authorized it with limiting quotas (maximum 1% of the population can take them, i.e., maximum 4 million doses may be purchased).

  227. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    …I am now just as fine with “everyone else” dying, hopefully the sooner the better

    Since we are in the fantasy land now, how about those of us untouched by either Wuhan lab bats or Pfizer magic potion watch as you annually poke yourself until inflamed heart muscles give up or your neurons go haywire. Or everything starts tasting like lentils.

    I suspect that there is an inverse correlation between high IQ and biological survival (BQ). Maybe gods hate competition. Or maybe high IQ types are too lazy to have and protect their offspring. In any case, we will be here in the long run, you might not. It must be worth that food court binge.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  228. Beckow says:
    @reiner Tor

    We have been sneezing for a few thousand years and mankind has survived. You are right, viruses spread and make us uncomfortable. They can kill, mostly the weak. That’s the way it is, the general setup we were given. It’s not ideal.

    Isolation or obsessive fear of disease are not going to fix any of it and are going to cause other issues. We can wear masks and helmets since head injuries can be fatal. We can ban horse riding, short sleeves in woods (lime disease!), long water slides for kids, un-chewed meat for the old. We will still get sick and some will die.

    There is a small protection that we could get from wearing masks – if worn properly. We could lynch anyone who coughs in public, issue permits and digital passports, track variants ad infinitum – there will be an infinite number of them, that’s biology.

    And then nothing will change, except life will be impoverished. People will still die and get sick, viruses will still exist. The ones who adapt and learn how to live with it will own the future. It is starting to look like it will not be the smarter, European types – they are too fussy and too un-biological. This could be the coup-de-grace for the Western civilisation. Great music, technology, even some good culture – but they just cannot cut it in the dirt. And the world is mostly dirt.

  229. melanf says:
    @sudden death

    Were those Sputnik quality issues found in Brazil (some live cold virus inside, capable to multiply, IIRC)

    The Monday announcement left many scientists and media outlets believing Anvisa had directly tested Sputnik V for replicating adenoviruses, which would be unusual for a regulatory agency. But Anvisa has since clarified— _it had not_ and was relying on information provided by the Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology, the Moscow-based developer of the vaccine.”
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/russias-covid-19-vaccine-safe-brazils-veto-sputnik-v-sparks-lawsuit-threat-and

    • Agree: Brás Cubas
    • Thanks: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Aedib
  230. Hunter says:
    @RadicalCenter

    To be honest the seat belt comparison was really strange because ALL cars today come with seat belts. So it isn’t as if a seat belt mandate was going to ever generate extra profits for car companies anyway. They were mandating that people wear external safety devices that already came with the car. The helmet comparison was slightly more relevant insofar as most motorbikes don’t come with helmets and you have to buy them separately, though still a rather poor comparison.

  231. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    According to Putin yesterday, there have been 12,3% of the total population vaccinated up to now.

    Anti-vax sentiment will become a problem when the vaccination rate is higher – for example, it could prevent high enough vaccinations rates for “herd immunity” (although in combination with natural immunity the vaccinations should be sufficient to attain herd immunity eventually).

    In terms of Sputnik vaccine, there is supposed to the ramp up this month, at least if they still follow the ramp up plans discussed in December.

  232. Aedib says:
    @melanf

    I thought it was mainly a political issue with Bolsonaro trying to please his American masters by torpedoing the Sputnik-V in Latin America.

    • Replies: @melanf
  233. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    inflamed heart muscles give up or your neurons go haywire. Or everything starts tasting like lentils.

    Urban myth (of which we know you’re a big fan ) or something to be real concerned about? What percentage of those inoculated will come down with these dreary symptoms?

    Lentils are really getting a bad rap lately. They’re supposedly one of the biggest causes of “leaky gut” syndrome. Tell me its not true (I do enjoy eating chili) 🙂

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  234. @Mr. Hack

    It’s pretty funny how Beckow has turned my actual IRL anecdote about someone who got parosmia for several months (a recognized symptom of “long COVID”) into a fantasy about how you will get it through vaccines (I’m familiar with no such cases).

    • Thanks: Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Beckow
  235. Beckow says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I literally started my post with:

    Since we are in the fantasy land now…

    Do you guys take everything this seriously? Come on AK, you used to do better. Maybe the vaccine is getting to you – new side effect: after vaccination people are so scared about what they did to their bodies that they lose sense of humor. That may actually be happening.

    Lentils are fine, my grandma said they make us “good looking”…so have some more.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  236. @utu

    The information we have is contradictory. Maybe Russia expects to be able to ramp up production quickly as the demand appears. Do you really think Putin would be risking his image by concurrently abetting anti-vaxxing in Russia and offering cars to people who vaccinate themselves?

  237. @melanf

    I saw Small Pox eradicated 100% through vaccination; but then those were the days when things worked the way they were supposed to work. One shot, you are immune for life.

    • Replies: @melanf
    , @Vishnugupta
  238. melanf says:
    @Aedib

    (from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Annual Report)

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi, reiner Tor
  239. melanf says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    Smallpox was an obvious threat to everyone. Coronavirus devilishly plays on human psychology – “I am young and healthy, only old people die from covid, so I will not be vaccinated/perform anti-epidemic measures.” If covid killed with the same probability (and in the same terrible way) like Ebola, humanity would have suppressed the epidemic long ago, and there would have been orders of magnitude fewer victims

    • Replies: @Old Brown Fool
  240. Mr. Hack says:
    @Beckow

    So, just for the record (and to be perfectly fair to you), what exactly are you trying to say about the long term effects of getting a vaccination??…

  241. @Old Brown Fool

    That’s because viruses like smallpox and polio have coexisted with humans since before the dawn of civilization and the virus structure has stabilized over millenia.

    This is why vaccines developed in the 1950s still work very well against these viruses.

    Covid is the polar opposite, a lab created frankenvirus which is getting more lethal over time unlike any other virus.

    Covid was basically another flu in 2020 for healthy adults in their 30s.I personally know no one who required hospitalization last year.

    There are countless examples of healthy adults who have died after contracting covid this April.
    I personally knew 5 of them.

    Now there is a new triple mutant variant first detected in Eastern India a few months ago.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  242. @utu

    15 million have been fully vaccinated in Russia. 33 million vaccines have been administered.

    You know what this means? As I have said before there are 1. Vaccines manufactured 2. Vaccines distributed to the regions… and then 3. Vaccines ready to be administered to the people.

    33 million vaccines given means that domestically, 55 – 60 million doses have been physically produced.

    What’s also important to know is that “60 million vaccines” produced by June is EXACTLY what the authorities said at the end of January. So I don’t know what you are moaning about.

    If you look through then you will see they have produced exactly what they claimed. Only thing to query is the interchangeability of officials confusing “doses” with “people” ( I. E. not dividing by 2) for PR, but that is all.

    One thing you are correct about is on the availability vs demand. Karlin is talking garbage. The consumption of vaccines in Russia relative to those available to administer is 75-80%,which is actually similar and even better than in the US.

    But these things cancel themselves out….. more people would have got Sputnik vaccines if flights on holiday to Turkey were not stopped due to the further outbreak there.

  243. Passer by says:
    @Dmitry

    At the current trajectory

    Things in the economy do not follow never-changing trajectories. Usually there is a spike and then some flattening. Since the vast majority of economists, including the IMF and OECD, estimate UK recovery by 2022, i will stick with that. This is the widely estimated date for EU too.

    This is because excluding some industries like travel and tourism, much of the nature of lockdown’s effect on GDP is tautological – closing shops, restaurants and preventing consumption.

    No, there are also other problems, such as the long term scarring effects caused by the pandemic that i mentioned. See OECD and IMF studies on the issue. Seacrh for “pandemic scarring effects”

    The effect of the lockdowns on GDP is therefore temporary,

    Its not, there is persistent GDP gap caused by the pandemic.

    https://voxeu.org/article/social-and-economic-costs-covid-19

    USA and China already returned to pre-pandemic GDP levels this summer

    Do you know that the US added 5 trillions dollars in stimulus, in order to get to that point? 25 % of GDP, this is really, really huge. Without that, recovery would have taken far longer, see the older IMF estimates without the government stimulus.

    China

    China did a very good job in dealing with the pandemic. And even there, there was a huge government spending stimulus to stop the economic drop.

    Future population is not dependent on TFR measurements, as was known in the 1920s

    These are old and obsolete views. Birth delay for young women isn’t much of a problem, it can be easily recovered later, and this is what the situation in the world was up to now, but birth delay for masses of older women, as is increasingly the situation in developed countries these days, is a problem.

    Because older women run into infertility issues, which means that birth delays get increasingly harder to recover (or never recover) and you get a downward TFR trend due to that.

    I wouldn’t say the main reason is increase in demand, but rather that the lockdowns (which involves close of shops, restaurants and schools) have not effected this sector.

    Well this is what i’m saying. The nature of the pandemic decreases human to human contact and it increases virtualisation of society, which in turn powers the IT sector. Chinese tech exports performed very well during the pandemic. Lots of computers, phones, gaming consoles, various IT equipment, etc were exported by China.

  244. @melanf

    True; one thing from this mandemic is now people will treat every cold with suspicion; the whole Coronavirus family will be now hunted. A murderer in the family of pickpockets will cause the whole family to be chased out…

  245. One more note in relation to utu’s persistent claims:

    Is this Western hack also making things up like me, melanf, AP, etc?

    ***

    From the replies to another of Yaffa’s Tweets. Some Russians paying 10-20k rubles for fake vaccination certificates, LOL.

    https://baza.io/posts/ac4e2515-10f5-4c60-b6cd-fbee4e318feb

    But confirms what I was saying earlier – dying from Corona in Russia has long been a choice (a dumb one, but a choice nonetheless).

    In comparison, the only people (trying to) pay for fake vaccine certificates in the US are Daily Stormer reader types (i.e. total marginals).

  246. BlackFlag says:
    @jimmyriddle

    It’s still on YouTube.

    It’s advocates seem like the real deal, data seems solid, no conflict of interests cause there is no money, and it’s extremely safe anyway.
    Strange that nobody on unz talks about it.

  247. @Vishnugupta

    That’s because viruses like smallpox and polio have coexisted with humans since before the dawn of civilization and the virus structure has stabilized over millenia.

    This is why vaccines developed in the 1950s still work very well against these viruses.

    Covid is the polar opposite, a lab created frankenvirus which is getting more lethal over time unlike any other virus.

    Covid was basically another flu in 2020 for healthy adults in their 30s.I personally know no one who required hospitalization last year.

    Don’t want to say that SARScov2 is certainly not a lab virus, but natural viruses also have the ability to get more lethal over time.

    Human population was never this dense and large like it is now, so previous historical viruses were not having available “living space” to replicate in such quantity and fast like now, thus increasing numbers of probable variants, e.g. all European population was just 80 million before Black death, while SARScov2 managed to infect worldwide twice as much just in a year and half.

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