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Here’s what a smart Trump would have done:

  • Two months of hard containment in NYC, Washington, parts of Florida, and other hotspots to knock the epidemic back down to manageable levels. This is not going to be easy; the Chinese closed off Wuhan when it was at just 400 official cases, and the total number of cases still ended up expanding twentyfold. Nonetheless, the US does have the advantage of knowing much more about the coronavirus now than the Chinese did back in January, and of being a car-centric culture living predominantly in suburbia, which makes containment, all else equal, much easier.
  • During this period, massively ramp up testing and monitoring, mask production, legally mandated mask wearing (as opposed to spreading misinformation about it), mobile messaging to warn people they had contacts with COVID-19 carriers, etc. – that is, all the things that have already become standard in China and South Korea, and which a putatively First World nation such as the US should be able to pull off as well.
  • The economy will take a sharp dive in Q2, that’s now practically unavoidable (incidentally, I predicted as much a month ago). But it will then rapidly recover in the runup to November (China is reopening its economy right about now; the US can do it in May/June).
  • Money printer go brrr! In the meantime, pay 75% of unemployed people’s former salaries (up to some limit) like a multitude of West European countries are doing. Reform America’s draconian sick leave laws. Even institute some kind of pandemic-limited UBI, outflanking the Democrats on the left. At a minimum, this would have brought in at least some of the Bernie Bros disillusioned with their boomers picking Biden for them. In the best scenario, it would have allowed Trump to finish off Conservatism Inc. and forge a new national, socially-oriented Trumpist consensus that transcends current ideological and demographic divisions.

Just a week ago, many of these ideas seemed realistic, even imminent. The collapse in GDP and employment was going to be a shock, but one that Trump’s legions of propagandists on FOX and MAGA Twitter could ascribe to Corona-chan and the Chicoms without too many problems (at least it’s working to date, with 53% of Americans approving of Trump’s handling of the Corona crisis).

Overall, things were looking up, but then, Trump was like:

So back to work you go, peons. Mammon needs you!

This is really quite remarkable. Unless he changes course, imminently, Trump has just signed his political death warrant:

  • He has presided over an almost uniquely botched response to COVID-19, and abandoning containment measures now will ensure it becomes much, much bigger – potentially 100,000’s of deaths, no matter how many snake oil cures Trump peddles.
  • Literal decimation of his demographic base (silents and boomers). How’s Florida looking?
  • After a few days toying with with UBIs and other social support measures, the decision has been to stick with the same ol’ crony bailouts that sank the GOP in 2008.

This is like that trolley problem ethical dilemma, except here the choice is between saving people or the trolley. The MAGA people have opted for the trolley.

Thing is, they won’t even save the trolley. Here’s what’s gonna happen, Jack.

  • New cases are going to peak two weeks after the start of containment measures in NY and Washington.
  • The Big Brains around Trump will see that, use it as justification to reopen the economy.
  • The MAGA cultists will proclaim “Mission Accomplished.”
  • Two weeks after that, the epidemic will take off again, prolonging the recession through all the way to November (who’s going to the restaurants or on cruises with the bodies piling up?).
  • Counter-examples of states that successfully contain COVID-19 and then proceed to recover economically, not just in Asia but by then in much of Europe, will throw Trump’s failures into stark relief.
  • Far out scenario: Blue states may outright defy Trump on abandoning containment measures, in which case they too would be doing starkly better than Red states (unless it also sparks a Constitutional crisis into the bargain).

If he really wants to go down this road, Trump had better start working on that casus belli with China fast – or even Biden’s corpse will beat him by 10% points come November.

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    • Replies: @Antonius
    , @James Scott
  2. Mr. Hack says:

    Trump probably thought that with an economy humming along, stock markets high and low unemployment, he was going to cakewalk back into the white house for another 4 years. Now, that’s all changed and he’s vulnerable to much criticism and political attacks. He needs to slow down and think this one through better, think of what’s best for the country – I don’t know whether this is possible for him or not? His shooting off at the mouth without thinking might finally catch up with him.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
  3. Tusk says:

    grandparents would be willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren

    So the Right wants Boomers to die to keep graph going up, and the Left wants Boomers to die so their bank account balance goes up. When are we going to get rid of these psychotic morons from power?

    • Agree: Iva
  4. You’ve been more correct than me on this (though other than vastly underestimating First World White incompetence, overestimating spread in tropics, and not understanding the whole hospital capacity and shortages of basic medical supplies issues, I haven’t been wrong on anything, and correctly predicted the New York disaster to boot). But I do say I side more with Trump than with you here. Compensating the job creators is cheaper and more effective than massive compensation to workers, the lockdown should ideally last about 2-3 weeks before resorting to Korea-type test&trace, due to climate improving and vastly expanded testing cases are unlikely to take off again, and flattening rather than nuking the curve after the peak shouldn’t be too much of a disaster.

    Blue states may outright defy Trump on abandoning containment measures, in which case they too would be doing starkly better than Red states (unless it also sparks a Constitutional crisis into the bargain).

    Possibly true, but I think it’d be more of a mixed bag. The blue states want to reopen, too, and don’t want to nuke their economies.

    • Replies: @Nodwink
  5. songbird says:

    This whole idea that grandparents should die to improve the economy for their grandchildren rings so comically false to me given how cucked our ecomony is, how much forced wealth transfer there is to non-genetically related peoples.

    I have a better proposal: let’s stop the gibs – period. That ought to provide the grandkids with a pretty nice economic cushion. We might be able to turn this shutdown into an annual month-long paid vacation, or come up with some nice birth incentives.

  6. You undermine your credibility making so many specific predictions without hedging much. I suspect in a month you will admit this prediction was wrong. This situation is highly dynamic at this stage. The easy part of the forecast is now past

    • Replies: @Korenchkin
    , @calculator
    , @Ano4
  7. A123 says:

    If the DNC had picked Tulsi, maybe they could have used this.

    With Biden and Pelosi at the helm : (1)

    Nancy Pelosi has thrown in the towel on her attempt to misuse the Wuhan virus epidemic to sneak partisan legislation that has never been able to make it through Congress into law.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday that she will attempt to pass the Senate’s coronavirus economic stimulus package – putting aside the alternative, projected $2.5 trillion measure that she proposed.

    One can only imagine how bad the Democrats’ polling must have been to cause such a hasty retreat. The Democrats had no one behind them except their most extremist supporters

    The DEMS now own 100% of the economic blame because they openly tried to tank the relief package. A DNC ticket of Singing Potato-Pet Rock 2020 could out perform the upcoming Biden-Hillary 2020 fiasco.

    At this point I think that the GOP will retake the House. Of course, with ultra-left Wall Street Republicans around that may not be entirely a gift.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/pelosi-caves.php

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
  8. inertial says:

    Nothing says “serious, sober analysis” like a dumb Coronachan meme before the post.

    You have a weird interpretation of Trump’s tweet. He is calling on the Congress to pass his stimulus – which presumably contains a lot of the money printer go brrr stuff that you like. And he is absolutely right when he says “Our people want to return to work.” They do.

  9. You have this honest, intelligent take on something that goes against what I think would be your preferred outcomes, but you keep to your simpleton HBD (the Ancient Greek IQ and reasons for Northern European late development are two I recently saw that are just totally sophomoric),.. I don’t get it.. and you’re even a “chorni zhopa” yourself to boot. Ni panimayu…

  10. utu says:

    Good one. Agree. Thanks, AK.

    fyi: St. Louis mortality distribution of Spanish flu epidemic was bi-modal. The second peak, stronger than the first one, occurred because of chamber of commerce pressure to lift the quarantine.

  11. This may explain the Italian numbers with Covid 19.

    Watch video at 47:30

  12. But if that malaria drug in combination with something else works trump will seem like a genius. Or like an idiot savant. I’ve read anecdotal stuff that it has been working with doctors in NY these last days.

    Trump has an animal instinct that aligns with regular joes that has kept him from totally sinking so far, even if most of what he says is bait and switch. And this is coming from someone that would love to see him gone in 2021.

    • Replies: @Per/Norway
  13. This is good for Russia, no? Trumpian strategy will inflict maximum damage to USA, allowing the infection to spread unhindered, and then Biden will put the country in lockdown. Bailouts to corrupt companies and FED moneyprinting will ensure dollar crash and spectacular economic implosion several years down the line.

    What will be American debt to GDP ratio by the end of this year? Does anyone in US care anymore? They’ll have significantly smaller economy and trillions of new debt.

    • Replies: @mal
    , @neutral
  14. Dmitry says:

    Trump is obviously correct that people need to return to work.

    The problem for this, is a simple issue of lack of equipment – just people don’t have enough PPE to do what he wants, while killing the epidemic at the same time.

    If every worker has gendine-coated gloves, full face respirators with P100 filters and voice diaphragm, and some hygiene training – then the economy could almost go back to normal (except eating in restaurants and things where you have to open your mouth).

    With adequate equipment, the epidemic would die, while people were working at the same time. You can to the cinema with a respirator, you can go shopping, you can go to the office. It’s not nearly as inconvenient as people seem to think – after a century of R&D in them, the high quality ones are now very comfortable and light, with clear visors, and easy ability to speak. (There’s few jobs you couldn’t easily do in Dräger FPS 7000, Scott Promask, etc).

  15. TG says:

    “Dulce et Decorum Est Pro GDP Mori!” Haha! At least some of us remember the classics.

    Many potentially valid points. Some other points:

    – The United States has shipped its industrial base to China. We don’t have masks, we don’t have tests for the coronavirus – we don’t have the reagents to make the tests, we don’t have the factories to make the reagents to make the tests, we don’t have the tools to make the factories to make the reagents to make the tests. etc. It’s all gone! Those people who flacked to ship our industrial base to China in the name of ‘free trade’ were liars and whores and traitors to their nation. We should neither forget nor forgive them. And I’m thinking of you, Mr. Goody two-shoes Paul Krugman, sitting there all unctuous and liberal and blaming it all on Trump. When Americans start dropping because all of our medical technology is in China, how about you and your family go without treatment, hmm? That would be fair, right?

    Alexander Hamilton – a famous opponent of free trade – once said, “Who would console themselves to the loss of an arm, with the consolation that they can buy their shirts for 40% cheaper?” Of course, the average American didn’t get 40% cheaper – check out drug prices lately? – but we sure did lose our arms, that is, we lost our ability to actually do things in our own defense.

    – All these massive corporations, they borrowed tens of billions of dollars to buy back their own stock – and now things are bad and they want to be bailed out and keep all their profits and all their bonuses and ownership etc.. But if a regular person loses their job and is saddled with debt do they get bailed out? No, it’s harsh pure capitalist survival of the fittest for you, serfs!

  16. mal says:

    It boils down to pension funds vs pensioners. If stock markets are not up soon, whatever old people are not killed by the virus would need to be run over with tanks on the streets once their pension checks stop arriving.

    That said, UBI and fund bailout would have been a smarter way to go – printing money for this is easy. As it stands, anybody going to work would need to resolve to not contact anybody over 60 years old. not sure this is an option for many people.

    Also, there will not be a sharp recovery after this, at least not without massive money money printing for the consumer ($5 trillion or more allocated for UBI). Service economies are like buying haircuts. If you experience hardship and have to go without haircut for 6 months, once your fortune improves, you will not go out and buy six haircuts you missed out on – you will only buy one. This will be a problem for GDP recovery. While workers or capital are not very important in modern economy, consumption must be sustained at all costs. No consumer = no economy.

    • Replies: @animalogic
  17. mal says:
    @Felix Keverich

    What will be American debt to GDP ratio by the end of this year? Does anyone in US care anymore? They’ll have significantly smaller economy and trillions of new debt.

    No. Money is just a digital token that can be created (and destroyed) in any quantity required. Worrying about debt is like worrying about gold in your World of Warcraft account – you can if it makes you feel good, but it is not necessary. All this concern trolling about balanced budgets and the deficit is a show to make capital exporters feel good while they transfer their goods and services to the US. But really, capital exporters have no choice – US military is there to ensure that their debts are denominated in USD, and so is their trade.

    Infinite amounts of debt can be financed at 0% or negative interest rates. People say American banks won’t allow negative rates because it will kill them. That is true. This is a battle we will need to win when we get there – Goldman Sachs and Friends vs Federal Government. It will be tricky since Goldman Sachs and Friends own Federal Government, but there won’t be a choice really. Big banks will need to be automated and nationalized. Given prevalence of algorithmic trading, we are mostly there already.

    • Agree: Digital Samizdat
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    , @Chinaman
  18. MattinLA says:

    This take is so completely, 180 degrees wrong, it’s almost perfect. Even the periods and commas are wrong. Please encase this in glass so it can be displayed in the Museum of Wrongness.

    • Replies: @animalogic
  19. @inertial

    There are a lot of people who want whatever Trump tells them to want. He could tell them they should cheer as he f**** their wife. They’d do it.

  20. 128 says:

    Would the number of obese Americans and drug addicts make the vulnerable number higher?

  21. neutral says:
    @Felix Keverich

    Is Karlin a Russian nationalist though? America imploding would be what any true nationalist wants, he seems to be more happy with the current status quo.

    • Replies: @Nazbolfren
  22. neutral says:

    Infinite amounts of debt can be financed at 0% or negative interest rates.

    No they can’t, if your country starts approaching Zimbabwe levels of financial responsibility then there is only one way it can end. Even if the US military held a gun to every person in the worlds head to use the US dollar, the underlying worthlessness of the dollar would still not convince people.

  23. Pro GDP

    pro producto toto domestico

    Fortunately, two out of three words are Latin already. 🙂

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  24. @neutral

    That must be why the dollar is plummeting right now………….

    • Replies: @neutral
    , @nokangaroos
  25. @mal

    “No consumer = no economy.”
    No truer words — pity elites don’t get it….
    Whoops, sorry, they do get it, their answer is DEBT….

  26. @MattinLA

    Perhaps you would care to be more specific ?

    • Replies: @Per/Norway
  27. WHAT says:

    With muh US military in full bitch-ass retreat in ME and Afghanistan, nobody is especially scared. Those still scared can turn to other players, which are ready and willing to welcome them into the fold.
    ^_^

    And it`s not even a real UBI, but a sort of a tax credit/loan, which you`ll have to pay back later anyway, with margin on top.

  28. @neutral

    You are correct.
    At some point the dollar supply & its value re other currencies could become so out of wack that people would simply refuse to use it/accept it.
    Theoretically i suspect, it could be anytime — given the right economic/political circumstances.

  29. @Boswald Bollocksworth

    You gonna elaborate or just leave us guessing?

  30. neutral says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    Things cannot keep on going on this trajectory, there is simply no way. The people hoarding dollars are the equivalent to the people hoarding toilet paper, this is collective stupidity and not a sign of what should be done.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  31. Ron Unz says:

    (Cross-posted comment)

    Actually, I wonder whether Trump will really go ahead with that proposal…

    Easter Sunday is April 12th, 18 days from now.

    If you consider the implied rate of current infections based upon current death-rates, you get some interesting results:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    For example, I think roughly 200,000 to 250,000 NY residents are currently infected, a figure vastly higher than the official total. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised if the New York death rate has reached 500 per day by Easter, perhaps even 1,000 per day. Indeed, if the local health system has collapsed by then, those might be major underestimates.

    If 1,000 New Yorkers are dying each day by Easter, maybe even Trump’s Wall Street friends will try to persuade him to change his mind about ending the national lockdown…

  32. @neutral

    I suspect Karlin is something akin to a Russian liberal, he dislikes the USSR which essentially means he supports the American position on Russia. Despite some of its blunders, the Soviet regieme was direct opposition to American globohomo, the negative influences of capitalism on the psyche, etc. I fear “based Russia” wont survive after Putins era as much of the Duma is replaced by younger SWPLs reissiting their parents traditions

    • Agree: Delta G, dfordoom
    • Troll: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Delta G
  33. In any case, what this means if you have any serious holdings of cash or liquid assets, it is time to consider trading it for hard assets, like the 3 G’s … Gold, Ground, and Guns.

  34. The Uruk Hai will sacrifice whatever is necessary to please the old god Na’s’Daq

  35. Beckow says:
    @neutral

    Dollars, society, economy are all mental constructs, they don’t really exist. In that way toilet paper is different, it is tangible, it exists.

    We live in a mental world that we create and psychological rules apply: once we create something and get used to it, it cannot be discarded at will. In that way ‘dollars’ are safe, people see them as ‘money’ and we can’t comprehend a world without money. Thus we can’t comprehend a world without dollars unless something else steps up to replace it (not gold for god’s sake).

    People hoard valuables in times of crisis – they will hoard dollars. Why not? What exactly would be an alternative?

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Digital Samizdat
  36. Beckow says:
    @Ron Unz

    It will not play out the way Trump plans and wants. Or his Wall Street friends. We are still in early stages, in the relatively pleasant early phase before the contradictions, hard choices and consequences accumulate.

    The number of infected in NY is substantially higher than quarter million, but what matters is that most of them will have no serious symptoms. This is a bad flu, but it has triggered an unraveling around the world and that could only happen if the circumstances were already right for it to start to unravel.

    By April 12 people could be dancing in the street in a post-corona euphoria, or they could be hiding in basements. It is largely up to them, it is a choice that the society will make and have to live with the consequences. There is no fate.

  37. @TG

    The people who did this are traitors to the highest degree. And yes, the majority of them are white men.

    • Replies: @Digital Samizdat
  38. >Far out scenario: Blue states may outright defy Trump on abandoning containment measures, in which case they too would be doing starkly better than Red states (unless it also sparks a Constitutional crisis into the bargain).

    Keeping out foreigners and fighting the fed to own Cheeto Hitler.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin, Bill
  39. SIMP simp says:

    It looks like the real mortality of coronachan is 0.5%, compared with 0.1 average for flu. Big enough to overwhelm ICUs but not big enough to make an economic impact, until morons shut down the economy.
    Sure, nothing would have happened if WHO and CDC and Trump would have pushed for strict quarantine of China in early January when this would have mattered, but they say it’s somehow impossible to stop a virus from crossing the Pacific but it is possible to stop it spreading down a city block.
    Such is life in a corrupt idiocracy.

    • Replies: @Bill
  40. grandparents would be willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren

    With Soviet Coronavirus first born sacrifices YOU to Mammon.

  41. Maybe it won’t be so bad for most parts of the country. Seattle was due to get as bad as Lombardy seven days ago. It doesn’t look that way based on the death trend. For comparison Lombardy went from 37 to around 100 from March 2 to March 5. In two Seattle counties, there are 110 deaths. It’s not because of aggressive containment. On Sunday, Seattle had the weakest mitigation measures among the earliest hit US cities. Seattle is also doing a pitiful job of testing. Maybe the virus is not so contagious outside of a specific set of conditions. However, NYC is not doing well.

  42. @neutral

    Even if the US military held a gun to every person in the worlds head to use the US dollar

    That’s kind of what we’ve basically been doing for the last several decades or so.

    You don’t need to be convinced when you are coerced. It buys the oil in dollars or else it gets the hose again.

  43. mal says:
    @neutral

    This can go on for a lot longer than people think. First off, while reserve currency is not really needed today (we have this thing called Internet now where relative values of currency pairs can be tracked in real time without the need for 3rd party intermediate such as USD), foreign people can’t let go of the concept, and they want USD. This will continue for some time, and as such, they will need USD regardless of US domestic policy. US is an Empire, and as such, the rest of the world economies will burn before US economy is really threatened. Like Beckow said, it may not be a physical need, but a psychological need nevertheless.

    More fundamentally though, hyperinflation generally requires three things:

    1. External shock (Weimar – reparations to allies, Zimbabwe – IMF loan repayment, Venezuela – sanctions, post Soviet Russia – former Soviet republics dumping rubles and establishing their own currencies)

    2. Supply chain collapse (Weimar – loss of German Empire and industrial districts, Zimbabwe – replacement of competent white farmers with incompetent blacks, Venezuela – foolish factory nationalizations and failure to invest in oil company maintenance, Russia – new borders cutting off goods flow and government failure to support markets).

    3. Worker wages going up. If toilet paper costs a wheelbarrow of money, some consumer must have a wheelbarrow of money to set this price.

    How does this play out in the US:

    1. This is what US military is for. Good luck demanding any real payment (gold, net exports, etc) from the US. Not happening, and if you keep insisting, you will get a good doze of democracy bombed into you.

    2. Barring Civil War, supply chain collapse is not realistic either. Ironically, US is a service economy, haircuts do not require complex supply chains, so even a Civil War will have minimal impact on haircut prices.

    3. US wages have gone nowhere in the past 20 years, and will continue to stagnate due to automation. When Hair Salon lady demands $1,000,000/hr in wages, she will be replaced with $20 buzz cut clippers working for 2 cents worth of electricity. Robots don’t care about money, and their cost is approaching near zero. Commodities are also dirt cheap. This is why hyperinflation is impossible in a modern economy. Technology is massively deflationary.

    TLDR: despite USD being printed by the $trillions, hyperinflation is impossible in modern service economy due to robots not caring about currencies. Robots are free because you can simply borrow as much money as needed to buy them. Zero or negative rates take care of repayment. Absent external shocks (nuclear war blowing up automated factories), the future is deflation, and to achieve GDP growth, wage increases can not be counted on. Therefore, direct payments to consumers are required or Depression results.

    • Replies: @Dacian Julien Soros
  44. @mal

    You had my attention until you mentioned American military. The notion that people could be intimidated by this paper tiger to buy US debt is preposterous, absurd. 😂

    Dollar is the true foundation of American power and prosperity, destroying the value of dollar will make US irrelevant overnight.

    • Replies: @neutral
    , @mal
    , @NazBolFren
    , @FvS
  45. neutral says:
    @Felix Keverich

    The thing is that they still have nuclear weapons, and I don’t think anyone doubts they would use them to try to keep their empire. So the question is what is the best way to remove them?

  46. @Ron Unz

    I agree with that – events may well overtake Trump, thus “rescuing” him from his own blunders.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Ron Unz
  47. mal says:
    @Felix Keverich

    You had my attention until you mentioned American military. The notion that people could be intimidated by this paper tiger to buy US debt is preposterous, absurd. 😂

    While our friendly leadership is utterly incompetent at policy level, US military still packs tremendous amount of firepower that hurts badly. Of course, you need policy to translate firepower into victory, hence US predicament, but do not confuse stupidity for inability to hurt people.

    “Dollar is the true foundation of American power and prosperity, destroying the value of dollar will make US irrelevant overnight.”

    Dollar, like all fiat currencies, has no value. Hence this value can’t be destroyed – can’t destroy something that doesn’t exist. I mean, what is the value of a kilogram? The concept doesn’t even make sense. Metric system has tremendous value (universal measurement system reduces transaction costs), but kilogram in abstract has no value – there’s an infinite amount of abstract kilograms out there. They are worth nothing. Same with dollar. Dollars are infinite, but as long as they fulfill the psychological need of foreign people for universal accounting system, dollar will reign supreme.

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  48. @Felix Keverich

    There was a recent article in bloomberg that said the attempts of nations like Russia/China to move away from doing transactions in USD as well as the Europeans trying to develop their own reserve currency is a serious threat to US national security and hegemony. The USD is the basis of US power and is what essentially keeps the US economy afloat. The bloomberg article said that Military Power is necessary to retain the status of the USD as the world’s reserve currency.

  49. A123 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    events may well overtake Trump, thus “rescuing” him from his own blunders.

    Trump needs very little rescuing… He is running against Quid Pro Joe.

    The DNC managed to find a more gaffe prone choice than Sanders. There is likely to be only one Presidential debate, and the Dems will do their best to achieve zero.

    All of the possible dirt on Trump’s contact with women has already been thrown. What are the chances of Biden’s touchy, gropey, feely record of contact going #MeToo in October?

    Or, is #MeToo the DNC’s pre-convention plan to ditch him for Hillary?

    PEACE 😷
    _______

  50. AP says:

    My boomer dad made a lot of money on the market in the last 2 days, having put a lot in after the drop. His faith in Trump has not been shaken.

    Trump’s approval is at a record high of 49%, with 60% approval of how he is handling the crisis. This may not last if and when the shit hits the fan but so far his position is solid. Biden is nowhere to be seen.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  51. UK says:

    Unions in the UK support the money going to the employers and not the employees. This is because it maintains their mutual relationships, so that employees remain employed post-crisis.

    Also, it seems possible that the Wuhan Flu is a mere highly contagious cold and that most data and oddities from it are artefacts of testing (and hysteria) rather than some awful pandemic.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
  52. neutral says:
    @A123

    I don’t know what you are worried about, Biden will be just as loyal to Israel as Trump is.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Antares
  53. @UK

    Then why are there so many more deaths in Lombardy than there were last year?

    • Replies: @UK
  54. neutral says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    14 vs 110, you must admit that is hardly a spectacular viral apocalypse. If China had say 50 million deaths by now that would be cause to worry, but they are clearly not close to such numbers. This is really is a lame “crises”, but if it destroys the US stock markets and economy then I am all for it.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
  55. A123 says:
    @neutral

    I don’t know what you are worried about, Biden will be just as loyal to Israel as Trump is.

    Why are you so obsessed with the Jewish Nation?
    ___

    The huge risk is elsewhere – Biden is a pure-breed, war starting, NeoConDemocrat.

    Burisma Bribe Boy Biden will put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Probably re-occupy Libya. Expand the presence in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

    If you want 5+ new or reignited wars, vote Bombs for Biden 2020.
    ___

    Fortunately Biden’s catastrophic loss is near 100% certain.

    PEACE 😷

  56. all smart Playboy Playmates should have given me free unlimited blowjobs whenever i wanted. that’s where Hugh Hefner went wrong. not sending them all to me.

    Anatoly’s comments make about as much sense at this point. this is the biggest overreaction in the history of the world. the virus has barely affected most states. it’s time to go back to work.

    leave the actual decision making to the adults, internet pundit guys. no, you weren’t right. no, you weren’t ahead of the curve. yes, you are just twitter snark posters and yes, you were wrong this time. Ramzpaul is correct, you guys are not. strangely, he also has a real life, job, and kids, you guys don’t. funny how that happens so often. your exponential growth models were horseshit.

    the real issue right now is that the US is on civil war footing. the Democrats see that the country is about to break and they’re making their move. shutting down entire states without any authority. shutting down any business they want. going after firearms. letting prisoners out of jail, but threatening to put you in jail if you ‘break quarantine’. Pelosi and Schumer seeking 1 trillion in pork for their voters and permanently changing the US social landscape with laws that have nothing to do with virus response.

    • Agree: Gleimhart Mantooso
    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Kim
  57. @Ron Unz

    who gives a shit about New York City? that’s not the entire country. what? i’m supposed to care what happens to 10 million Democrats 1000 miles away? my life hinges on what 10 million Trump haters in a city that produces NOTHING are doing?

    WHO THE FUCK CARES.

    there’s 300 million people NOT IN NEW YORK CITY and they make the country run.

    most states can go about their normal business now. if New York City vanished tomorrow, we’d be hugely better off.

    Escape From New York their asses if it’s that bad. build a wall around that cancer of America and let them deal with it for 2 months while the rest of us get on with it. stop every dumb fucking one of these New York City assholes from getting on a flight to Florida.

    there’s like 12 Americans left there anyway. it’s a foreign city. who cares what happens there.

    • Replies: @Aedib
    , @Matra
  58. @neutral

    An increase of the death rate (by all causes) ten times? Seems pretty big to me…..

    • Replies: @neutral
  59. @AP

    Hard to say.

    Biden is clearly losing it upstairs. OTOH, there is a logic to keeping a low profile now. The obvious one – minimizing chances of contracting Corona – as well as disassociating from growing debacle.

    Trump’s approval rating is meaningless. As Michael Tracey recently noted, G.W. Bush’s was 70% on the eve of the Iraq War.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. XYZ
  60. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Well, Bush only lost because of the fluke Perot candidacy. With Perot in, his loss was inevitable.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  61. neutral says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    Like I said when we are talking about millions dead then it could be something, but 14 vs 110 is nothing. I would bet that if one looks at last 20 years you will find patterns of 10, 50, 100, 20, 15,… occurring.

  62. David says:
    @Ron Unz

    Trump doesn’t actually expect the economy to reopen before Easter. It won’t. But having head-faked in that direction, while “the experts” shouted nooooooooo, can any political opponent later say that if Trump hadn’t shutdown the economy, this whole thing wouldn’t have been a big problem?

  63. “Literal decimation of his demographic base (silents and boomers). How’s Florida looking?”

    Decimation means 1 of 10 being killed.

    So far this disease has racked up a measly 4000.

    Yawn. Wake me up when it is 400k. Even then it won’t decimate his base.

  64. Corona-Chan  gave her blessings to the 37-year-old British deputy ambassador and took him to her bosom. No other illnesses or pre-existing conditions were mentioned, though he looked very slightly on the overweight side, or at least a bit soft. I’m sure thirty-something diplomats routinely die of the flu, so it’s no big deal anyway.

  65. @UK

    The shutdown probably saved lots of lives from traffic accidents and perhaps even the regular seasonal flu. But here’s the catch — it saved lives all around the country. The coronavirus deaths are concentrated in a small area. So we’ll be able to make lower boundary estimates of the number of people who would’ve died of the coronavirus without a shutdown, plus the number saved from other causes. The fact that the lockdown saves lives from other causes is an argument for it, not against it.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @for-the-record
  66. @AP

    G.W. Bush, not H.W.:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Digital Samizdat
  67. @reiner Tor

    More directly ironic case:

    • Disagree: neutral
  68. @jbwilson24

    Do old people even vote Republican in NYC, Seattle, and California?

    Not all old white people are voting Republican. A solid 1/3 are still Dems. I’d assume the tend to be very wealthy and living in super zips, like Pelosi.

    So far it appears that the virus is hitting the Dem areas the hardest.

    • Agree: Dannyboy
    • Replies: @Dannyboy
  69. @reiner Tor

    He just looks like a soft individual. He wouldn’t have survived childhood in the pre-vaccine, pre-antibiotics era.

    • Agree: neutral
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  70. UK says:
    @reiner Tor

    Out of the millions of people who contract the flue each year, many have a similar profile to that poor chap and a number of those also die.

    Perhaps millions already have Wuhan Flu, even as many as half of the UK population:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

    And therefore the ICU wards, unusually full of viral pneumonia and ARDS patients, while worrying, are just the very unlucky tip of a very mild disease that is only caught by tests in the more extreme (or famous) cases. It would certainly explain many of the oddities seen around the world in differential rates of progression, mortality and spread.

  71. UK says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Out of the millions of people who contract the flu each year, many have a similar profile to that poor chap and a number of those also die.

    Perhaps millions already have Wuhan Flu, even as many as half of the UK population:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0

    And therefore the ICU wards, unusually full of viral pneumonia and ARDS patients, while worrying, are just the very unlucky tip of a very mild disease that is only caught by tests in the more extreme (or famous) cases. It would certainly explain many of the oddities seen around the world in differential rates of progression, mortality and spread.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  72. UK says:
    @reiner Tor

    Your use of the word “fact” is sorely lacking.

  73. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Trump’s approval rating is meaningless. As Michael Tracey recently noted, G.W. Bush’s was 70% on the eve of the Iraq War.

    Technically speaking, though, if Iraq didn’t go down the shitter in 2003-2004, Bush’s victory margin in 2004 would have probably been larger–perhaps even much larger–than it was in real life.

  74. @reiner Tor

    The fact that the lockdown saves lives from other causes is an argument for it, not against it.

    As I have been saying all along, the coronavirus is very likely to end up saving a sigificant number of lives — and the lives saved are primarily younger people with 30-40 years life expectancy at least, while those dying probably have life expectancy of 1-2 years at most. So there is likely to be a pronounced positive effect on overall life expectancy, rather than Karlin’s projected 2.5 year “permanent decline” in the US.

    So why not make the lockdown permanent? By banning cars at night, for example, one would reduce traffic deaths by up to 50%. And who really needs to go out at night? And of course, we are already reducing deaths from influenza drastically: the CDCs statistics support the assertion that the measures taken against coronavirus have reduced deaths from flu in the US by 10,000 so far this year, a figure that will almost certainly continue to rise in the coming weeks.

    And think of the benefits for the canals in Venice, which are the cleanest they have been for a century, if not longer.

  75. songbird says:
    @reiner Tor

    I wonder if he could be gay.

    I suppose “deputy” makes him kind of a minor official, but since it is Hungary, I can imagine that they could use a deputy to signal that Hungary should turn gay. And gays probably tend to a certain politics anyhow, so it is a badge of loyalty to globohomo.

  76. Mr. XYZ says:

    @Anatoly: Have you ever considered the possibility that, at least for the US, coronavirus or not, the US economy was already overdue for a recession either way? I mean, the last US recession ended in 2009 if I recall correctly, and that was over a decade ago! We were already in the longest non-stop economic expansion in US history (even beating out the golden 1990s), if I recall correctly.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  77. A123 says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    last US recession ended in 2009 if I recall correctly

    Where did you get that number? Based on what standard?

    More typical measures:
    — Employment (as % of population) greater than “start of recession”
    — Real wages (population adjusted) greater than “start of recession”

    Did not become positive until after Trump took office. Barack Hussein’s entire presidency was a “jobless & wageless recovery”.

    You might be able to place the recovery around 2014-2015 with a generous interpretation of the numbers (graph below). However, that method does not consider population growth.

    PEACE 😷
    ________

  78. @Anatoly Karlin

    Three days ago, a 28-year old employee of the International Monetary Fund suggested that the cost social distancing is exacting “on the economy” might be more important than “the human aspect of the disease.”

    Not to be unduly skeptical, but can someone please identify where this 28-year old employee made this reference? If one does a Google search using the terms “on the economy” and “the human aspect of the disease”, all of the results one finds refer to this twitter reference. Same thing when I search Twitter.

    I note also that there is no reference on the IMF website to the recent death of an employee from coronavirus, which one would expect to see.

    As of two hours ago CNN is reporting a total of 2 deaths in DC, and from other sources one can easily confirm that the second death was three days ago (a 65 year-old woman with underlying health conditions). It is of course possible that he died in DC or Maryland, or perhaps he was on holiday somewhere. But in any event, it should be easy to identify him, especially since the press is all over cases of young people dying from coronavirus (“proof that the coronavirus does not discriminate by age”, etc.).

    • Replies: @Malenfant
    , @reiner Tor
  79. @Mr. XYZ

    Yes, but I was expecting it to be a mild one, and in 2021-22. And I was expecting Trump to win. https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1214011597645131776

  80. Aedib says:
    @prime noticer

    The gargantuan outbreak of New York is flooding New Jersey. It may get out of control.

  81. @UK

    If most Britons are infected, then that means COVID-19 actually has a crazy high r0 and it’s impossible to control its spread. Which begs the question, then, of how exactly we are seeing hotspots at all, instead of the entire world becoming Feb!Wuhan. How does the paper explain that?

    • Replies: @UK
  82. Malenfant says:
    @for-the-record

    I believe this is what those tweets were referring to:

    https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/25-Mar-2020/pakistan-army-officer-s-son-dies-of-covid-19-in-us

    And it seems the deceased was 26, not 28.

  83. @Mr. Hack

    Trump successfully pressurred the Fed to lower interest rates, because the alternative was stagnation or worse. Hence, the downturn started almost a year ago, when rate cuts started for “apparent” no reasoon. You would have thought that Trump and his sycophants at the Fed would have calculated the support to just enough appearance of growth until US elections. But Trump went greedy and got to near-zero interest before the first lockdown in Jew Rochelle.

    Covid has nothing to do with the drop in Fed rates.

    Now, Trump will blame all his failures on the China virus and on the Deep State Department. Americans are still far richer than what their IQ would allow for. (Most of them would die of hunger if taken to Romania.) So they will afford to be gullible once more.

    I never thought that Bush Jr, who sent thousands of Americans to die for Israel, would be reelected. So why would Americans be smarter this time?

  84. UK says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It is a short paper but you can skip to Figure 3. Their model works back from actual deaths. It then adjusts R0 and the proportion of the population likely vulnerable to severe disease to infer, within plausible boundaries, how many infections there probably already are and when the infections began.

    As for why the whole world isn’t Wuhan in February, who knows? It seems that it might get that way of everywhere has as great conditions as Wuhan does for the spread of respiratory illnesses (cold, dry weather, a population who loves to crowd and spit everywhere.) The paper though would imply that Wuhan resolved of its own accord pretty much, by burning through the population. As for the rest of China – I don’t trust the CCCP much so don’t want to guess from their statements. It also doesn’t increase the R0 from already recognised limits, instead it contends that the initial UK infection was probably a bit earlier than currently reckoned, which makes sense given the many, many Chinese students flying into the UK all of the time.

  85. Matra says:
    @prime noticer

    Quarantining NYC now to prevent contagion is a good idea. Quarantining NYC after the virus to prevent a different kind of contagion would be an even better idea.

    • Replies: @Aedib
  86. @prime noticer

    Wait, why only the smart ones? Is Karlin a cognitive elitist when it comes to playboy bunnies?

  87. I believe this is what those tweets were referring to

    What seems strange is that the only references I can find to his death, which reportedly took place in Washington, DC, are in Pakistani sources. But perhaps I am not looking in the right places, or perhaps tomorrow will see a deluge of such reports from US sources.

    Also, of course, he may well have said what he is said to have said, but he doesn’t appear to have said it in any publicly-available manner. But then again, maybe I’m not looking in the right places.

    And of course the confirmation that he died in Washington, DC and not suburban Maryland or Virginia is also a bit strange. All sources that I can find (which seem to be well after the Pakistani ones) indicate that there have been only 2-deaths from coronavirus in DC: “a 59-year-old man with a history of medical problems and a 65-year-old woman with underlying medical problems” (Washington Post, 1826 GMT today).

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
  88. @mal

    You are wrong about automation. Most people get haircuts so trivial that they could have done it themselves. Most people can pray to gods directly. But they still pay other people to cut their hair, lead their prayers, and suck their dicks.

    My favorite example is those untouchable who the richer Indians call to pick up their feces, bare-handed or else.

    As long as haircutting, sex, and defecation are intertwined with power games, there will service providers.

    Also, automation is impotent. Few things can be done by robots. Their computerized brains are fudging more than ever. Today’s AI is less useful than the expert systems of the seventies, and dumber than the industrial robots that put together cars since the nineties. At least, those are doing one thing.

    • Replies: @mal
  89. @neutral

    Even if the US military held a gun to every person in the worlds head to use the US dollar…

    If?

    They already are:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_of_the_United_States

  90. @A123

    Or, is #MeToo the DNC’s pre-convention plan to ditch him for Hillary?

    My conspiratorial take is that Cuomo’s Covid-19 press conferences are a test balloon/trial run for him to be the surprise nominee at a very strange Dem convention.

    Cuomo does seem to be gaining some traction among normies and the reddit hivemind.

    • Agree: Old and Grumpy
    • Replies: @A123
  91. Aedib says:
    @Matra

    Quarantining New York + New Jersey. The cluster is very very large.

  92. @reiner Tor

    Looking at this photo I wouldn’t be surprised if this person had a lousy diet, poor sleep habits, was pre-diabetic, had high blood pressure, and a resting heart rate near 100.

  93. mal says:
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    If you think I’m wrong about automation, you are welcome to try and invest in manned mall stores here in US – plenty of retail space available as they are going bust. My bet would be on Amazon and their automated warehouses though.

    Automation already eliminated most jobs, if you define a job as activity that generates value. The world is $255 trillion in debt. Whatever it is we are doing when we “work”, we are clearly not generating value. Robots are a lot better at it than we are already.

  94. A123 says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    My conspiratorial take is that Cuomo’s Covid-19 press conferences are a test balloon/trial run for him to be the surprise nominee at a very strange Dem convention.

    Cuomo does seem to be gaining some traction among normies and the reddit hivemind.

    I do not want to steal Mr. Unz matra, but plausibility is important.

    How many people believe that the Dems truly *want* damaged goods like Quid Pro Joe?. It does not take a great leap to believe that if they can get Sanders to drop out Biden will be replaced at the convention.
    ____

    When is something so plausible it becomes a plan rather than a conspiracy?
    ____

    The problem — Due to DNC dirty tricks in 2016, Sanders has made it clear he will continue through the convention. Normally I would not cite NYT, but as this is blue-on-blue: (1)

    … on Tuesday, Mr. Sanders’s campaign offered the clearest signal yet that the senator intends to keep competing with Mr. Biden, when a spokesman confirmed his intention to appear at the next debate, if one occurs.

    Having promised 12 debates it is hard to see the DNC risking a blow-up with Bernie’s supporters. The DNC cannot control Bernie. And, it is not clear that Bernie can control the “Bernie Bros”.
    _____

    The next logical option is the VP choice. However, Biden has promised a female and strongly suggested it will be a minority female. At some level he must understand the personal survival risk of a Biden-Hillary ticket.

    Kamala Harris is #1 in the market. (2). Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth has genuine military credentials. She would be the smart choice. Currently only #6 in the markets, but I suspect few know her story — RPG vs. Helicopter. (3)

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/us/politics/bernie-sanders-joe-biden-next-debate.html

    (2) https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5883/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination

    (3) https://www.vogue.com/article/tammy-duckworth-interview-vogue-october-2018-issue

  95. Kim says:

    Automation already eliminated most jobs, if you define a job as activity that generates value. The world is $255 trillion in debt. Whatever it is we are doing when we “work”, we are clearly not generating value. Robots are a lot better at it than we are already.

    I wonder how you define “value”. I suppose it must ultimately be defined in terms of “who, whom”.

    In which case, perhaps we should focus on who “who” and “whom” might be and how it is that they get to define what is valuable – or why they are excluded from such decisions.

    And then perhaps we might drag some of that old rope out of the toolshed.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
  96. Kim says:
    @reiner Tor

    Very overweight young man without the hand strength to tighten the knot on his tie succumbs to an illness that most typically kills geriatrics already suffering from various other life threatening conditions.

    National emergency!

  97. Kim says:
    @prime noticer

    I am trying to figure it out. I know your caplocks key is not broken because you capitalize US and personal names.

    So why don’t you use capitals at the start of sentences? Do you like to make your writing more difficult to read? Or are you perhaps related to e.e.cummings?

    In any case, I admire anyone who dares to kick against the oppression and tyranny of the orthography establishment. Good for you!

  98. Cyrano says:

    I think that the Corona virus is Trump’s conspiracy. Listen to this train derailment (I mean train of thought): Trump co-engineered the Corona virus – with the Chinese – in order to reduce the numbers of pensioners in the US.

    Remember how they like to explain the need for continuous flood of immigrants from the 3rd world, because if they stop doing that, there will be no one to pay for the pensions. Well, if you eliminate the pensioners, then you don’t need continuous arrival of 3rd world hordes in order to pay for the pensions of dead people.

    I wonder what excuse the “democrats” will come up with next in order to continue with their mission of hope for the 3rd world – which has led to many, many sleepless nights for these titans of humanism. Basically, this is all just one big Trump conspiracy to get rid of the immigration.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  99. @inertial

    Careful now. Someone will call you a “MAGA cultist.” Anything other than a relentless, obsessive hatred for Americans is unacceptable here in the land of the instant internet expert on everything.

    • Agree: Dannyboy
  100. …no matter how many snake oil cures Trump peddles.

    Would someone be so kind as to point out to me where Orange-man-bad has peddled any snake oil cures?

    Thanks in advance.

    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
  101. Cyrano says:

    I think that so far the response to the Corona virus outbreak has been one-dimensional. China is especially guilty of this kind of reaction to the Corona virus outbreak. I mean it’s only logical – one party system – one dimensional response. You understand what I’m saying? Total lack of imagination.

    The US, on the other hand –multi party (OK, only 2, but they are working on it) system – multi-dimensional response. Everybody thinks that the US doesn’t know how to respond to the virus threat. It’s not like that at all.

    Anybody can figure it out how to kill the poor virus, it’s not a big deal. The real genius lies in figuring out how to make money out of it. If anybody has a proven historical track record of how to make money out of unimaginable and totally unrelated situations (wars for example) – then it’s definitely US.

    That’s why I think that they have hit a little snag with the virus. They are just trying to figure out how to make money out of this “unpleasant situation”. But this is where it gets tricky. If they find totally legit way to make money out of the virus – that pretty much kills the incentive to get rid of it permanently. Why kill the cash cow (it’s a figure of speech). Either way, expect a very unique and creative way of dealing with the virus by the US.

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @FLgeezer
  102. I am just fucking relieved that I left NYC when I did.

    Fucking a. One of the best decisions I ever made.

    Fuck Trump, everyone in his administration and all the fucks who thinks killing old people is OK.

    That Texas governor deserves a public hanging.

  103. @for-the-record

    See Malenfant’s link, plus search his name on Facebook, and you will find his page. Or just go to https://www.facebook.com/rshukr and you will find his post under it. (It’s public.) Until someone will take it down.

    Just for the lazy, here’s Malenfant’s link:

    https://en.dailypakistan.com.pk/25-Mar-2020/pakistan-army-officer-s-son-dies-of-covid-19-in-us

    • Replies: @for-the-record
  104. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Many of us wouldn’t. And you cannot really tell based on a photo. I read somewhere that overweight San children (their weights are in a narrower band than with civilized peoples) had a slight disadvantage among the San, but once they moved into a town with Bantus etc., having a little extra weight helped them survive infections. (And they had lots more infections than in the wild.)

    There are stories of asthmatic individuals succumbing to Covid-19. But, again, I didn’t think asthma was a lethal illness, not in the 21st century. So?

  105. Wielgus says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I would say about 20 kilos overweight, judging from the photo.

  106. @Tusk

    Yeah! A Pretty good proposal from the right wingers for achieving their desire of dismantling the “entitlements”. Well he can ask his own old folks to lead the way!

  107. Wielgus says:
    @Cyrano

    Its effects on the economy make it challenging to coin filthy lucre from it, but no doubt some are looking for a way.

  108. @for-the-record

    As I have been saying all along, the coronavirus is very likely to end up saving a sigificant number of lives — and the lives saved are primarily younger people with 30-40 years life expectancy at least, while those dying probably have life expectancy of 1-2 years at most. So there is likely to be a pronounced positive effect on overall life expectancy, rather than Karlin’s projected 2.5 year “permanent decline” in the US.

    1) Lockdowns cannot last very long. It’s not applicable if it’s endemic, because the lockdown cannot last longer than maybe 3 months.

    2) You keep mixing up baseline scenarios with lockdown scenarios, also the endemic scenario with the first initial wave of the epidemic. You need to specify which you are talking about. Please also remember that you have been opposed to lockdowns from the get go. You cannot argue (what you seem to be arguing) that “we don’t need a lockdown, because this virus doesn’t kill anyone with a lockdown.” The 2.5 years was a baseline scenario (unlikely) with specific assumptions, like the CFR staying the same as in China, infecting as many people as the flu, etc. etc. You cannot say that “it will be lower because we will have a lockdown,” because we won’t have a lockdown permanently. Similarly, the LE lowering to 66 from 78 years had a specific condition: if we do nothing.

    3) We heard the argument (I think you haven’t been making it, but some others) that “lockdowns kill people, too.” I guess you agree that that argument must be false, too, in light of the data.

    4) The epidemic is not affecting (yet) whole countries. In Italy, it’s Lombardy. In Spain, it’s Madrid. So you need regional data. Maybe death rates are high in Lombardy (and super-high in Bergamo) but lower than normal in Sicilian villages (because of fewer traffic accidents, while there’s no epidemic there). As I can provide you links, mortality rates in and around Bergamo (according to the local mayor’s office) are several times higher than in normal times. I guess this goes into the Euromomo preliminary data, so mortality rates must be lower elsewhere. Do you disagree?

    5) Statistical data occasionally get revised later on. These are preliminary data.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  109. @mal

    While our friendly leadership is utterly incompetent at policy level, US military still packs tremendous amount of firepower that hurts badly.

    Sounds like something an English policy analyst might have said about the British Navy in about 1935 (when Britain still had the largest, most potent navy on the planet, and navies mattered).

    The US cannot project power against anyone who has half-decent anti-shipping missiles (e.g., Oniks).

    Anti-shipping missiles are to aircraft carriers (and guided missile frigates) what carrier-launched aircraft were to battleships and destroyers.

    This is why the US takes great pains to ensure that it never provokes anyone enough to make them sink a US carrier.

    US ability to jaw-jaw will collapse very shortly after the first US carrier gets sunk: thereafter all its fair-weather camp-followers will switch across to the queue of nations looking to kick the US in the taint.

    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
  110. @Anatoly Karlin

    Define ‘succumb’. Does ‘succumbed‘ mean ‘died of‘?

    Or (far more likely given the lack of detail about the identity of the alleged 28 year old bureaucrat) is this Yascha (((???))) ① trying to conflate “contracted” with “die from”, or ② making the whole thing up?

    Asterisks abound on every OHV (‘otherwise healthy victim’) anecdote: the odds against are simply too high. That’s not to say that the number of OHVs is zero, of course.

  111. @Kim

    The world is $255 trillion in debt

    To whom?

    A closed system cannot be ‘in debt’.

    You’re perhaps talking about the liabilities of a subset of the human herd; there is (in fact there must be) an offsetting asset somewhere else.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    , @reiner Tor
    , @mal
  112. @Kratoklastes

    Well I’ll be. Another military expert on Unz.

  113. FvS says:
    @Felix Keverich

    The U.S. only appears to be a paper tiger because we choose to follow specific rules of engagement. Take them away and the American military is capable of perhaps unprecedented levels of mass slaughter using conventional weaponry.

  114. Antiwar7 says:

    … which a putatively [sic] First World nation such as the US should be able to pull off as well.

    Since when has the US government solved any nontrivial problem? Certainly not in the last 50 years. I don’t know where your optimism could have come from.

  115. Biff says:
    @FvS

    The U.S. only appears to be a paper tiger because we choose to follow specific rules of engagement. Take them away and the American military is capable of perhaps unprecedented levels of mass slaughter using conventional weaponry.

    Politics is the Art of the possible.

  116. That’s too much – we known government has all of our details – so it should have quarantined at risk people.

    Pensioners and the infirm, and let the rest continue work!

  117. If things will be further going the way it are going now in US, there will be shitload of dead overweight or straight out obese middle aged truckers and farmers, also maybe port workers. In effect, this may increase automation rates because there will be shortage of such workers very soon, whom are not so easily and momentarily replacable.

    Automation technologies are almost already there and the biggest hurdle for adopting it en masse so far was fear of losing jobs (e.g. there were protests of port workers in Cali when port companies tried to fully automate ports and even some kind of legislative ban followed, if I’m not mistaken) and this fear will be removed altogether as job holders will be losing not just jobs, but their own lives and working health in droves from SARS 2.0.

  118. @Beckow

    Yeah, just like in prison how inmates hoard cigarettes instead of money. Will we soon be trading toilet paper for blow-jobs? That’d be a trip! Then I’d get to choose between wiping my own ass and having some other dude toss my salad! 😀

  119. Antares says:
    @neutral

    I think that A123 is afraid that Biden will attack the wrong country for him.

  120. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    The people who did this are traitors to the highest degree. And yes, the majority of them are white men.

    Actually, they’re disproportionately (((white))) men.

    • Replies: @anaccount
  121. @FvS

    US military strength mainly comes not from the soldiers but the engineers. It might not be difficult to persuade the soldiers to behave beastly, but it will let down most of the engineers if without a good cause. You seem to think the Rules of Engagement is just a bad burden, but it actually has a purpose.

  122. @Anatoly Karlin

    On a related note, Poppy Bush’s (that is, George H.W.’s) approval rating was around 90% immediately after Desert Storm in 1991, and he still lost re-election the following year.

  123. mcohen says:

    the 3 rocks are flying through space and will flash light on the earths inhabitants.a bright light unlike anything seen before and then we shall all ask.
    who are we that walk as kings and devour all the gifts of life.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  124. gate666 says:
    @inertial

    stop sucking upto trump.

  125. @Kent Nationalist

    The “flight into the dollar” is a sentiment caused by the the somewhat lower probability of being bombed by the Usual Suspects. Wait until the seizures (or NIRP) begin.
    Medium-term you can no more circumvent productivity than you can the rocket equation or the First Law … IOW look where the physical gold is going – the trade will follow.

    -> Opium War 2.0

  126. @for-the-record

    This is a out Truth, not facts. Also, my kid died of the current epidemic sounds better than he died snorting cocaine of a hooker’s tits.

  127. @reiner Tor

    I’ll take your word for it that about the Facebook post, I don’t use Facebook.

    But I am still waiting to see evidence that he died in Washington DC from coronavirus, as reported in Malenfant’s link.

    When I checked this morning and discovered that there had indeed been a third death yesterday in DC from coronavirus, I was sure that this must have been referring to our 28 (or 26) year old IMF staffer. But lo and behold, it turns out that the third victim was a “75-year-old female with underlying health conditions”. And as far as I can tell, all of the news reports of his demise still come from Pakistan, doesn’t this strike you as a bit odd if he died in Washington DC, and is a prime “diversity” candidate (in terms of both age and ethnicity) that the press would jump to highlight?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  128. Get real, Karlin.

    This whole thing is just being used as a scam to destroy small businesses and make us buy all our crap from Bezos.

    https://www.inquirer.com/business/philadelphia-garden-centers-coronavirus-shutdown-big-box-20200326.html

    Andrew Cuomo is claiming that 80% of New Yorkers will be infected even with a lockdown. So, what’s the point of a lockdown?

  129. @Kratoklastes

    The real point is that corona virus doomers make snarky comment at the deaths of people who preach real caution as opposed to hype.

    There’s a word for this, and the word is “troll.”

  130. @Digital Samizdat

    Having looked at the data for that election, Perot clearly cost H.W. the election.

    That said, I would have preferred a Perot presidency to either of those two “New World Order” retards, Bush and Clinton. But Perot didn’t do enough to win. He merely did enough to cause a Bush loss.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Digital Samizdat
    , @utu
  131. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Andrew Cuomo is claiming that 80% of New Yorkers will be infected even with a lockdown. So, what’s the point of a lockdown?

    The main point is to spread and slow the infection over longer timeframe, because there is huge difference whether 80% will be infected in 1-2 months or over 6-8 months or more.

    Also all kinds of GDP fetishists seem to be completely oblivious to human capital costs such as the wealth of a single highly trained proffesional in his sphere of knowledge:

    Lets just say a spinal surgeon, specifically doing the most challenging and complicated work, takes about 30-40 years to make a new one. All the standard schooling, college, medical school, and a full career of 7-10 years of building experience, before you are going to attempt a complex case. Not to mention the massive cost of training that doctor.

    You lose a few of those, and people may simply not have certain surgical options for a while, or if they can travel, the doctors doing said surgeries may be booked for months out, and in most cases, this kind of thing can’t wait.

    There are many professionals like this. Even the head mechanic at your local dealership, that deals with the most challenging cases, still has 7-10 years of experience before they got there.

    There is a vast underestimation of losing this kind of wealth, that is the wealth of all people. And in many cases, this wealth is transferred generationally, it maybe decades before it is fully repaired.

    r/Coronavirus/comments/fowy0p/32_prominent_economists_from_both_parties_sign/flhodl5/

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  132. @Cyrano

    H1b and other foreigners continue to replace white Americans even during this crisis.

    He did a bad job if this virus is designed for that, because 700, or x,000 whatever the final score is won’t have much of an effect on the overall pension scheme.

  133. @The Wild Geese Howard

    Okay, but you’ve just described a quarter or maybe even half of people his age.

  134. @FvS

    Take them away and the American military is capable of perhaps unprecedented levels of mass slaughter using conventional weaponry.

    No you’re not. The moment you try they’ll stick that ‘conventional weaponry’ up your collective asses and make you squeal.

    • Disagree: UK
  135. @sudden death

    Muh doctors

    Spare me. The vast, vast majority of doctors are scummy flunkies who are less intelligent and carry less responsibility than a car mechanic.

    • Replies: @sudden death
  136. @Kratoklastes

    Perhaps you would care to give one of your careful analyses to the situation where QE leads to a state where it extends where the assets are principally debt owed by Treasury to the Fed for financing the deficit.

  137. On top the young Pakistani working for the IMF, there was also a 21 year old woman from the UK with no known underlying health conditions (according to relatives, I suppose we will have to wait for an autopsy to see if this was actually the case) who died while being infected with CV.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/chloe-middleton-death-coronavirus-buckinghamshire-a4397551.html

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  138. @anonymous coward

    Doctor (the good one from the minority of doctors, if you want) was just an example here – the same regarding human cost capital can be said about nuclear/hydro/coal plant operators, engineers/designers/highly qualified operators of real manufacturing sector, truckers, farmers, water/wastewater systems operators/repaimen etc – all those people make the real foundation of any civilised system today. Mass death of lawyers/banksters/politicians/realtors essentially won’t change anything in essence, but those previous people are crucial and must be saved at all costs.

  139. Realist says:

    The economy will take a sharp dive in Q2, that’s now practically unavoidable (incidentally, I predicted as much a month ago). But it will then rapidly recover in the runup to November (China is reopening its economy right about now; the US can do it in May/June).

    The stock market has been overpriced for years…Covid-19 was the pin that pricked the bubble…it was going to happen anyway.

  140. This is quite crazy to be honest, even alt-media is now inundated with the same crap that legacy media is talking about. Which just goes to show that the latter will always dictate the agenda.

    This whole flu panic is manufactured and being used for nefarious purposes.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  141. Chinaman says:

    Only a psychopath will think this is moral dilemma and pose this as a trolley problem. It is an insane false dichotomy that only white people can come up with. Filial piety is quintessential human emotion that seperate human from animals. It is subhuman to let your grandparents die so you can keep your job and go to a football game. It is totally inconceivable for any Chinese to think in such a manner and no sacrifice is too big to save people’s lives. This is why China shut down, the economy was never even on a consideration. You really have Psychopaths running America or that white Americans are themselves psychopaths. I don’t see any Hispanics or even blacks suggesting such immoral things.

    What is the US economy anyway? We get to see its true nature and the fragile sand castle it is. It is a bunch of snowflakes going out and doing some frivolous and unnecessary activities. WTF. It is so myopic since the loss of millions of lives will lower GDP in the long run.

    causes belli? China should go on the offensive and take the opportunity and start a preemptive war with America to end this insane regime for the American people.

  142. @for-the-record

    So there is likely to be a pronounced positive effect on overall life expectancy, rather than Karlin’s projected 2.5 year “permanent decline” in the US.

    Please reread the post in question carefully: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-cost/

    2.5 year loss in life expectancy is if Corona retains its current age-specific mortality profile, and keeps infecting 10% of the population each year (i.e., acts like the flu). A scenario that some epidemiologists think is realistic.

    After that it’s mere arithmetic.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    , @utu
  143. Antonius says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    America needs to look inwards for her enemies, and what she needs now is a Sulla “No friend ever served me, and no enemy ever wronged me, whom I have not repaid in full”. Probably proscription also, now that would be a sweet thing.

  144. Chinaman says:
    @mal

    It is the right analogy but people will stop playing Warcraft altogether or spend real money ( gold) to buy robux if it is easily attainable and everyone has enough fake money\credits in their account to get whatever they want. No one wants to play that game if you are already a Lv99 wizard before you even know how to play.

    Money, as a unit of account and measuring stick must accurately represent the value of objects in reality. Flooding money in the system distort reality and ultimately destroy the economy. Like all the good things in life, scarcity and supply determines value.

    • Replies: @mal
  145. @Ron Unz

    One thousand per day, hmm. It’ll free up a lot of rent-control, rent-stabilized apartments. It’ll be a great boon to Trump’s rentier class. No wonder he is slow walking this one. Hail Discord!

  146. The mistake was to treat this virus differently than the viruses of every flu season.

    Even flu season results in the deaths of scores of thousands of people in America but the fear-monerging attending this flu season has wrought great destruction and the reasons for the wildly wrong response (to save lives) is silly as any normal man can respond – then why haven’t you done this every flu season and will you do it in the future for every flu season?

    It is especially funny to see the self-important man from New York, Cuomo, talk about his every life that can be saved must be saved and apply those faux claims to his support of abortion

  147. @Chinaman

    Chinese people, famous for their concern over human life

  148. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Andrew Cuomo is claiming that 80% of New Yorkers will be infected even with a lockdown. So, what’s the point of a lockdown?

    I don’t give a shit what Cuomo says.

    NY needs a lockdown because the situation there is out of control, as it was in Wuhan. Once cases there are suppressed, the situation can be adequately contained with softer measures – as proved by all the East Asian countries.

    But if right-wing Americans are so determined to prove themselves subhumans relative to East Asians who am I to object, not my fight at the end of the day.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Greg Bacon
  149. Ron Unz says:
    @Chinaman

    Only a psychopath will think this is moral dilemma and pose this as a trolley problem. It is an insane false dichotomy that only white people can come up with. Filial piety is quintessential human emotion that seperate human from animals. It is subhuman to let your grandparents die so you can keep your job and go to a football game. It is totally inconceivable for any Chinese to think in such a manner and no sacrifice is too big to save people’s lives. This is why China shut down, the economy was never even on a consideration. You really have Psychopaths running America or that white Americans are themselves psychopaths. I don’t see any Hispanics or even blacks suggesting such immoral things.

    In support of your position, here’s the perspective of “Jack D,” possibly the single most frequent iSteve commenter, with almost 16,000 comments totaling 1.8M words:

    An uncontrolled pandemic (which we are not going to have anyway) is GOOD for the economy and for working people once it is over. After the Black Death, wages went up because labor was more scarce. Killing off mainly older and sicker people controls future health care costs, it makes the math better for social security and pensions, etc.

    There are definitely going to be winners and losers – the cruise business may never fully recover. Domestic makers of masks are going to have a permanently larger market. And so on. Certainly the most recent bull market has come to a close. But long term, the 1920s, after the Spanish Flu, was a period of great prosperity.

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/so-uh-what-just-happened/#comment-3794347

    Keep in mind that “Jack D” hails from a particular Caucasian subgroup…

    • Replies: @UK
    , @Just Passing Through
    , @utu
  150. @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Absolutely. One prediction was that it would kill millions ! So far that has not happened. Another was that it would tank Q2 (DUH) and a third is that Q3 will improve which takes a real genius to conceptualise and visualise (LOL) In addition he always lectures us on what who would have done if they were smart. This guy seems to write about nothing other than the Corona virus. I imagine he reads up every article he can find and then re-compiles it into another load of bollocks (no insult intended to you Sir) with infantile cartoons and endless charts and graphs etc. Russia has produced many fine writers. I am afraid he is not and will never be one of them.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  151. Our primary crop is small alfalfa mixed hay. I can sincerely ask “what shutdown?” We are still selling and delivering hay. Our Timac representative is still delivering seed and fertilizer. Timac is still providing spraying services. All the equipment dealers are open for repairs and parts. So once again what shutdown? It is just impacting the professional services. Ones we never really needed to begin with. Trump wanting to reopen by Easter isn’t just about the GDP or stocks. It is about rebooting the greatest “mother may I” and ponzi scheme. Without that, the one world order just might be in jeopardy. We can’t have that.

    Also a lot of old people are still working in skill based trades and agriculture. Go ahead kill us off, which you might not due to most of us are coming from the Germanic tribes. Germans and Swiss German are doing pretty good right now. Brits aren’t really dying that much either. Now wouldn’t that be a hoot if we really were the master race in a immunity kinda a way.

  152. @TG

    Congratulations! Brilliant!!!!

  153. Nodwink says:
    @E. Harding

    The “job creators” are consumers, which are… the workers.

    • Agree: Nonny Mouse
  154. @Anatoly Karlin

    Please reread the post in question carefully

    I will certainly do that, time permitting.

    Meanwhile I will note that the sub-title of your post was “Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy – It’s Just Like the Flu, Brah!”

  155. I have watched Kim Iverson’s 3 recent videos. For those who haven’t heard of her, she’s a progressive and former supporter of Tulsi Gabbard. Per Kim, as the cat is already out of the bag and cannot be stopped, and since there may not be a safe vaccine for possibly two years, she says that the only solution is Heard Immunity. Per Kim, a growing number of experts are coming to the same conclusion, and she backs up her position with facts.

    Governments CANNOT (at least I hope not) successfully lock frightened people in their apartments indefinitely in a vain hope to Flatten The Curve. How could the economy possibly sustain 30-40% unemployment for months on end anyway? Once the amount of new cases goes down and restrictions are lifted, the amount of new cases will then rise exponentially again, as those who stayed locked inside will have no immunity.

    Kim has received considerable sharp criticism and threats of censorship, almost all from the Left, for her brave stance. (She did not mention death threats, though it would not surprise me). If you haven’t heard of Kim, her videos are on YouTube, but with everyone in the grip of Mass Hysteria from never-Trumpers, who knows for how much longer.

    I’m hardly an expert myself. If you pick at my comment, please note that I see no sense in rebutting your arguments. I just follow the opinions of those who seem most reasonable. To me, Kim’s solutions make far more sense than those of the Chicken Littles who dominate the democrat party and the left wing mainstream media.

  156. Another ordinary day at the office . . .

    US Initial Jobless Claims

  157. UK says:
    @Chinaman

    Only a psychopath will think this is moral dilemma and pose this as a trolley problem. It is an insane false dichotomy that only white people can come up with. Filial piety is quintessential human emotion that seperate human from animals.

    Some grandparents prefer to see their grandchildren flourish than eke a little more mostly unwell existence…

    It is subhuman to let your grandparents die so you can keep your job and go to a football game. It is totally inconceivable for any Chinese to think in such a manner and no sacrifice is too big to save people’s lives. This is why China shut down, the economy was never even on a consideration.

    I guess one shouldn’t have expect anything else from a culture with a history of literally eating its babies…

    China should go on the offensive and take the opportunity and start a preemptive war with America to end this insane regime for the American people.

    A war to put a quarrelous dragon lady in charge of every household? To reduce life to a souless sterile trudge towards mindless acquisition and fulfilling every half-remembered senile dream of those teetering on life support?

    There’s a reason why migration is from China to America, despite popular protestations in America, and it isn’t because China is some moral utopia.

    But the real point is that people objecting to this and making suggestions in different ways are looking for more data, considering opportunity costs and playing with other potential solutions. This is how complex problems are thought through by adults. Not simply spouting some idiotic Confucian cliche.

    • Replies: @Rattus Norwegius
  158. Greg Bacon says: • Website

    He has presided over an almost uniquely botched response to COVID-19

    That shouldn’t be a surprise, when one considers that his two SENIOR advisors are his son-in-law slumlord Jared, who had to get his wife to get Daddy to threaten sanctions on Qatar, unless someone there ponied up some serious shekels to invest in his failing enterprise at 666th Fifth Avenue. The other advisor is his failed fashion maven daughter Ivanka.

    Trump should immediately have the Treasury Dept sanction COVID endlessly, hoping that it will fail.

    Then he should use his Big Weapon, his morning tweet storm to poke fun, deride and call the Covid names, like the bumbling idiot does every day to others.

    The moron has declared bankruptcy SIX times, so this latest screw-up shouldn’t be a surprise.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @TrudeauSux
  159. UK says:
    @Ron Unz

    Since you’re obviously ignoring the way in which his point was intended in order to unsubtly insult him, I’m guessing his previous characterisation of you was spot on.

    Imagine if youthful Ron could see bitter, old, un-individuated Unz now – trying to randomly blame Jews for everything, even a pandemic…

    • Agree: Lot
  160. UK says:
    @Greg Bacon

    The moron has declared bankruptcy SIX times, so this latest screw-up shouldn’t be a surprise.

    When a celebrity billionaire turned most powerful man in the world has done something major six times, you should probably consider if it is worth learning from.

    Those uncomfortable with failure will not have much success.

  161. @Ron Unz

    Obviously being a boomer yourself, you have some personal stake in this debate, but what Jack D says is true. The ageing population of Europe and European-derived countries is a major hindrance. Many of the boomers dying in this plague already have one foot in the grave

    Coronavirus is lifting a great burden from our shoulders, and the pragmatist should recognise this and embrace what is happening

    • Agree: neutral
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Chinaman
  162. @jbwilson24

    You are wrong my friend. This virus will kill millions just as Anatoly Nostradamus predicted. We are lucky to have him around to warn us ! That was what I believed when I read his carefully thought out analyses. That is why I went into self quarantine under my bed carefully going over his charts only to realise they were the new designs for Disneyland roller coasters. I was disappointed to conclude that the whole corona virus hocus pocus thing and everything Karlin barfs up about it is nothing but clap trap. My grandsons like his cartoon figures though which is about the only thing worthwhile about his “work”. I have printed up a supply and stored them in my washroom in case I run out of toilet paper. In the meantime I think I will relax like you and set my alarm at 400,000.

    • LOL: Dannyboy, fenestol
  163. @Anatoly Karlin

    Only a low IQ moron calls a man who beat the Republican party, the Democrat party, and the media for the presidency of the USA an oaf. You are delusional if you beliueve your intellect is half of Trumps. You are a Poof with a capitol P.

    • Replies: @Just Passing Through
  164. @James Scott

    If all those entities were actually fighting against him, he wouldn’t have won. The media would have simply ignored him as thy is far worse than negative coverage.

    Imagine thinking some slimy New York billionaire who declared bankruptcy multiple times, is possible a crypto-Jew and is in bed with people like Sheldon Adelson is *not* an establishment figure.

    • Replies: @James Scott
  165. @Ron Unz

    Except the jew flu is fake Ron so hundreds of thousands of Americans won’t be dying. You turned out to be just like the rest of your tribe. You will be leaving the USA soon jewboy.

  166. @Just Passing Through

    Well, at the end of the day, I certainly do not intend to lecture Americans on something that mostly concerns themselves (though people abroad would also be impacted by the US making itself into the global epicenter of the Corona pandemic – something that it is on the cusp of achieving).

    But it is very weird to see the right-wing commentariat here, which is rather obsessed by things like the percentage white share of the US population, take such a blithe attitude towards the (relative) destruction of its own demographic base. OTOH it does seem to be a truism that the stupid get consistently beaten, so perhaps it will be perfectly justified.

  167. Delta G says:
    @Nazbolfren

    I think Tony Carlin is a Globohomo and likes his job in the backseat. When he is not working and gets up to look out the window he becomes a Back Seat Driver. In US he is Monday Morning Quarterback.

    • Agree: NazBolFren
  168. @Anatoly Karlin

    The boomers are the only ones keeping the cucked conservative parties alive. The GOP are pathetic and the boomers are too scared embrace ethnic consciousness, this is why they are always talking about lowest black unemployment and legal immigrants.

  169. S says:

    This virus has made for an ideal ‘back door’ for the powers that be of implementing ‘wartime’ social and economic policies, something you would do if you were surreptitiously prepping global society psychologically and physically for WWIII.

    In at least some places now in the United States with ‘shelter in place’ orders letters are being issued to people who do ‘essential work’. Should the virus linger how long will it before people are expected to show their ‘papers’ to police on request?

    The US army’s new WWII era style uniforms are supposed to come on line this summer.

    The Coronavirus War Economy Will Change the World

    When societies shift their economies to a war footing, it doesn’t just help them survive a crisis—it alters them forever.

    BY NICHOLAS MULDER
    MARCH 26, 2020, 6:29 AM

    Is the world at war with the coronavirus? Last month, Xi Jinping called the Chinese suppression effort a “people’s war”; in the past week, Donald Trump labeled himself a “wartime president,” while Emmanuel Macron declared that France is “at war” with COVID-19. As the global response to the pandemic gathers steam, the rhetoric of wartime mobilization is everywhere. In Italy, the worst-affected country in Europe, the government’s anti-virus czar has called for the country to “equip itself with a war economy” to confront the disease.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/26/the-coronavirus-war-economy-will-change-the-world/

  170. @Anatoly Karlin

    The elderly are not the “demographic base” of anything.

    Not saying that we should let them all die off – but the number of white births is what is important.

    • Replies: @follyofwar
    , @Mitleser
  171. Greg Bacon says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    NY needs a lockdown because the situation there is out of control

    If that’s true, then the first places to isolate are the heavily Jewish communities, who have flaunted any recommendations on containing COVID.

    Jewish people have been spreading coronavirus among themselves due to their poor hygiene, penchant for international travel, and refusal to follow prescriptions on social distancing. In New Jersey, Jews were arrested in two separate instances for hosting weddings in defiance of temporary laws against large social gatherings. One of the earliest reported contagion ground zeroes in America was a Shabbat dinner. Among the biggest hot spots are Kiryas Joel, New Rochelle, Williamsburg, and various other parts of the northeast with massive Jewish populations.

    https://www.unz.com/estriker/the-fbi-and-jewish-organizations-invent-anti-white-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory/

    But G-d forbid if one points that out, the ADL and its jack-booted thugs will kick you to the curb while shouting anti-Semite all the while demanding extra money from Congress’ corporate welfare package that will bail out the same damned banks we bailed out in 2009, but shhh! let’s not talk about that, we’re too busy buying toilet paper.

    For those not in the know, Williamsburg is in Brooklyn, a walk across the famous bridge opposite Manhattan.

    • Replies: @neutral
  172. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Why are we assuming that the sick and elderly, millions stuck in Gawd Awful nursing homes, wouldn’t rather die than continue to live life as a vegetable, in pain and with no hope of recovery? Does keeping them alive by all means necessary have anything to do with keeping the Medicare/Medicaid dollars flowing? We forget that Death is a Blessing, especially for those with one foot already in the grave, and is nothing to be feared.

  173. @Kratoklastes

    It matters a lot how many people are in debt and how deep they are in debt. Because it puts lots of constraints on behavior. Whereas having lots of assets affects behavior to a lesser extent, because there are no hard constraints involved.

  174. U.S. must collapse sooner or later to fix the World. No, not to tikkun olam it, but to really fix it.

  175. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    In my mind I do not associate utilitarianism, eugenics, euthanasia with Jews and Judaism. At least I do not see Jews as prominent drivers of these movements. It is rather Protestantism and British and American scientism that created and pushed these movements. Probably E. Michael Jones has written about it.

    So Jack D who many times demonstrated that he is a shameless Jewish sumpremacist does not manifest his Jewishness by this comment but rather his mimicry and ingratiation within the iSteve-ism where such convictions are common. As a Jew he is more likely to say first what everybody is already thinking but yet has gentile’s inhibitions to articulate it. So in this case do no blame Jack D, blame iSteve and his milieu.

    • Agree: Bill
  176. @TG

    Agreed.
    My problem with Karlin’s analysis (and many others) is that he thinks Trump could have actually done something. Trump could find the cure for cancer tomorrow, but it would be “wrong”, and the Democrats and most of the Republicans would fight him tooth and nail. He campaigned on returning industry to the US, so there were tax cuts for corporations. Did the corporations use the money to re-invest, re-tool, or put it into R&D? No, they used it for stock buy backs to inflate CEO payouts on stock options. Had they done what they were supposed to, the situation would not be what it is, both economically and medically.
    I read article last August. https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-real-reasons-why-the-media-is-suddenly-admitting-to-the-recession-threat/
    I sent it to my investments guy, and he agreed with me that the criminals in the Big Casino were looking for an excuse, so I took steps to mitigate. COVID 19 is the excuse needed for the biggest wealth transfer of all time. Whatever the official narrative on COVID 19 is, regardless of which government is pronouncing it, you can guarantee it being bullshit.
    Trump, like Warren Buffet, likely understands what is really happening.

  177. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Your article on life expectancy was a mistake. Life expectancy of dead people is zero. Life expectancy of survivors remains unchanged. Dead mothers can shorten life expectancy of their orphaned children but this is not what you were writing about.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  178. Dannyboy says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Yes, big cities in the US are mostly full of Leftist trash and their dusky pets. They can all perish slowly and painfully in the streets as far as we’re concerned…lol

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kathy-griffin-coronavirus_n_5e7c7fa1c5b6cb9dc19ae204?guccounter=1

    Is that poetic justice or what?

    🙂

  179. @utu

    It models a specific scenario where 10% of people get infected with COVID-19 with the age-specific mortality rates described here every year: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031104v1

    This is under the assumption that COVID-19 becomes endemic, which is far from a marginal view amongst epidemiologists right now.

    From there, it is all pretty simple life tables arithmetic.

    Put another way, if a country was to experience the equivalent of ten flu seasons every year, do you dispute that life expectancy would go down somewhat relative to what it otherwise would have been?

  180. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    “if a country was to experience the equivalent of ten flu seasons every year, do you dispute that life expectancy would go down somewhat relative to what it otherwise would have been?” – But that’s not what you have stipulated because you can’t assume reoccurrence of this epidemic. You treated this epidemic as a singular event. A singular event does not affect life expectancy of survivors. And before it occurred for people who worried that they might die telling them than their life expectancy might change from 79 to 77.5 was totally unconnected to their reality and thus ultimately meaningless.

    If you assume that every 10 years an asteroid will kill 20 million people then you could express it in terms of life expectancy but after a singular event of an asteroid hit the life expectancy of people who survived has not changed.

    Writing the paper was a mistake.

    • LOL: AltSerrice
  181. Biff says:

    a thread of the rails……

    the insane crack first….

  182. @Just Passing Through

    I watched all those entities trash Trump for almost two years. You are delusional if you think the mob wanted Trump.

  183. FLgeezer says:
    @Cyrano

    >Anybody can figure it out how to kill the poor virus, it’s not a big deal. The real genius lies in figuring out how to make money out of it.

    Funny you should mention that:

    https://www.gilead.com/utility/global-operations/europe/israel

    https://theintercept.com/2020/03/25/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-drug/

  184. mal says:
    @Kratoklastes

    To financial institutions that produce loans with a few key strokes. They count those loans as assets but they aren’t really – they are just future claims on labor.

    It is inherently unjust that some people can create money with few keystrokes, and use that to claim other people’s lives. To ameliorate, basic income comes closest to at least partially addressing the problem.

  185. @AnonFrogger

    or you could say the very same thing in the opposite. for those of us that try to look at things without partisan glasses on, a comment like this only makes one want to hang one’s head and sigh.

  186. @Greg Bacon

    Trump has over 500 other successful enterprises including 17 golf courses.

    Love it when the peanut gallery with 50 cents in their bank account beak off about Trump’s bankruptcies.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
  187. @Anatoly Karlin

    society at large looks down on people who claim to be able to predict the future.

    but add some math…..

    and presto!

    reading palms is now cool.

  188. Che Guava says:

    It is all a lie, in Japan, life remains nmrmal.

    The nations applying heavy pressure are not doing it for prophylactic purposer, but- only as an experment in how far they can bully their populatons.

  189. mal says:
    @Chinaman

    Possible but unlikely – there isn’t really a scarcity as such, except shortage of consumers. I mean, energy is dirt cheap (electricity is $0.1/kwh oil is $20-30, gas is under $2), commodities are dirt cheap, and even money is dirt cheap but only for the rich.

    Western corporations can borrow at 0% or negative rates, but instead of creating consumers through wages and building factories, they use that money to pump up their bosses digital wallets.

    If corporate sector doesn’t want to create new consumer, then government need to step up. Consumption must go up, or GDP will fail to grow, with tragic results.

  190. @Tusk

    You’re quoting the Texas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick there Tusk, not our author Anatoly Karlin.

  191. Florin says:

    good grief. Orange Man Bad and all but…

    “The US’s COVID-19 Death Rate Is Far Below the Rates in Italy and Spain”

    https://mises.org/wire/uss-covid-19-death-rate-far-below-rates-italy-and-spain

  192. neutral says:
    @Greg Bacon

    that will bail out the same damned banks we bailed out in 2009

    The same banks that follow instructions from the ADL who is allowed to do business with them.

  193. utu says:

    Buchanan, Cook, Derbyshire, Hudson, P.C., Roberts, Shamir, Godfree R., Margolis, Jones and Sailer are all at elevated risk because of their age. If each of them got infected then by Italian standards two of them would die.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
  194. As I’ve said here before (though Unz refuses to post stuff about Talmudic Noahide Laws), the elites do not care one iota about old folks when in a few years they’ll run out of SS/MC funding, and especially if these old folks are believers on Christ (because their Talmudic overlords want these believers decapitated anyway). They don’t even care if these old folks are Jewish, either. Finally, since us Boomers are probably more awake (and less “woke”) than Xers or Millennials, why not kill off as many of us as they can? Satan needs blood, and the Syn of Sat needs to provide it, right? As for the rest, the Talmud (can’t remember where) says in the end times there will be 8 or 80 or 800 or 2800 gentile slaves per Jew (the new “efendi”)…and, oh yeah, non-Talmudic Jews will be considered “gentile” as well…the more slaves for them, the better.

  195. songbird says:
    @Chinaman

    China should go on the offensive and take the opportunity and start a preemptive war with America to end this insane regime for the American people.

    With a lot of white people no longer commuting to their workplaces, or taking flights, now would be a pretty good time to nuke US cities. Please wait for April showers to minimize fallout.

    Of course, I don’t know how to advise you to deal with the counter-salvo. I suppose you should use your own best judgement. Maybe, pretend it was India?

  196. @for-the-record

    Possible, I just spent a few minutes searching for him, and shared with you what I found. I might look into this later. I have found a couple of Facebook pages with the names of his purported mom and dad (though the latter without pictures), respectively, so if it’s a hoax, it must be elaborate. A more likely explanation is that he was a real person who really just died, but

    A) he died of something else (though I believe the guy making the tweet in question is relatively well-known and wouldn’t just make this up – but maybe he didn’t vet his sources?), or

    B) he died somewhere else (maybe in New York?), and the place of his death was merely conjecture, reported as Washington, D. C., because he lived there.

    You can choose whichever to believe, or suspend judgment until further information comes out.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
  197. @Just Passing Through

    Elsewhere I read she was asthmatic. I don’t know if it’s true or not.

  198. Wantoknow says:

    We were heading into a recession before the Corona Virus. Why should reopening the economy prevent the recessionary forces from continuing. Especially against a background of resurging infections. I suggest that we are not coming back from this any time soon. Trump is toast either way.

    Besides, why would you care? Biden is hardly the people’s choice. Either way America’s problems will not be addressed.

    As for elections this sacred cow is never attacked. We have two parties, entry of a new party is nearly impossible, and there is no way to reject both candidates and both parties. It has become exceedingly clear there is no choice. Stay home or vote for an obvious loser in lieu of a none of the above choice if you must.

  199. Dannyboy says:
    @Chinaman

    China should go on the offensive and take the opportunity and start a preemptive war with America

    Go for it, bat eating gook…lol

    Bring your goofy Rooskie buddy with his PlaySkool sword. Or even better, just start flinging nukes around.

    We have enough missiles in one Ohio Class boat to lay waste to most all of your cities. And we have 14 of those.

    Let’s git it on!

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Chinaman
    , @Exile
  200. @reiner Tor

    You can choose whichever to believe, or suspend judgment until further information comes out.

    Judgment suspended, I await your future update.

  201. @Just Passing Through

    This whole flu panic is manufactured and being used for nefarious purposes.

    China, Russia and USA are on board with the ‘panic’.

    Assclown countries like the UK, Sweden or the Netherlands aren’t.

    Which tells me that the big boy countries have access to big boy information sources, and what they see makes them nervous.

    I’m betting that this virus is, indeed, an artificial creation that escaped. They want to wipe it out because the risks here are enormous.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  202. @utu

    are all at elevated risk because of their age

    Not correct — no one is at (significantly) elevated risk simply because of age. Of the current deaths in Italy (8,165), 98.6% have at least one pre-existing pathology, and more than 50% have 3 or more:

    Pazienti con 0 patologie pre-esistenti 1,4 %
    Pazienti con 1 patologia pre-esistente 21,4 %
    Pazienti con 2 patologie pre-esistenti 26,1 %
    Pazienti con 3 o più patologie pre-esistenti 51,2 %

    http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto

  203. Bill says:
    @SIMP simp

    Even if you are right:

    330MM * 50% infection rate * 0.5% = 825,000 deaths

    For a new and highly infectious virus, 50% infection rate is too low.

  204. @Kent Nationalist

    Backing up to finish the guy/gal/kid you just hit with your car is standard procedure in China.
    They lack empathy.
    Notice how people ignored a dead kid?
    Tell me these people’s lives in China should have any value to us?
    They are barbaric, thieves, racists and liars.

    The west should expel Jews and send them all to China.
    They let the rest of the world, happily, get infected. That is exactly what the jews are doing in Gaza
    We have never gotten the true story about numbers from China.
    The actual death rate in Wuhan was probably 50,000 and the rest of Hubei was probably 25, 000.
    How will we ever know if the CCP and clown Xi won’t tell us?

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  205. @Dannyboy

    Corona-chan is apparently IQ sapping and spreading even faster than Karlin predicted into the commentators.

    • Replies: @Dannyboy
  206. @steinbergfeldwitzcohen

    Yup they are nasty people, despite what the ///media\\\ says. China is a nasty and hellish country, and if this wasn’t an escaped bioweapon, I have no doubt they sent infected people out to infect the rest of the world.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  207. @anonymous coward

    The gov is clearly hiding some information.

    If this is not an escaped bioweapon, and is just the Kung Flu, then it is a massive hysterical over reaction.

    However, the Chinese reaction, as well as American reaction suggests that this could be something different…

    I’m not sure which theory I believe. Our elites are shrieking, womanly retards.

  208. Dannyboy says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Confucius say, bat burger a day with side order of tiger penis just the ticket for optimal health.

    Aaaasshoooole.

    lol

    • Thanks: Kent Nationalist
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  209. Chinaman says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    I will respond to this since this incident was shameful and demonstrates the callousness of the Chinese. I won’t make any excuse for the 17 subhuman passerby who let that little girl die. I wish I was there to save that little girl. I was personally involved in a similar incident myself in China where me and a doctor ( both from Hong Kong) were the only people to help a delivery man who was the victim of a hit and run. Hundreds of people just stood there and did nothing, typical bystander effect.

    I will just say that the unit of selection in evolutionary terms for the Chinese have always been at the family level and families relations are tight. Filial piety and family duty is of paramount importantance and thus it is inconceivable for me to put a family member at risk so I can get on with my life. That’s how we survived at the Malthusian limit for 2000 years. The dominance of family relations over other human relationships such as community and patriotism is at the root of the apathy and insouciance in modern China today. This stand in contrast to Caucasians where the selection seems happen at the level of the individual and also At the level of the race. I think most will agree that White people have much stronger racial consciousness than most other people. My own observation is that family relationships are often not as strong in white families. ( Italians aside) Estrangement from one’s biological parents is so much higher in America than anywhere I know of.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
  210. Bill says:
    @UK

    This is on the front page of euromomo.eu:

    The number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.

    Note concerning COVID-19 related mortality as part of the all-cause mortality figures reported by EuroMOMO

    Over the past few days, the EuroMOMO hub has received many questions about the weekly all-cause mortality data and the possible contribution of any COVID-19 related mortality. Some wonder why no increased mortality is observed in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19 affected countries.

    The answer is that increased mortality that may occur primarily at subnational level or within smaller focal areas, and/or concentrated within smaller age groups, may not be detectable at the national level, even more so not in the pooled analysis at European level, given the large total population denominator. Furthermore, there is always a few weeks of delay in death registration and reporting. Hence, the EuroMOMO mortality figures for the most recent weeks must be interpreted with some caution.

    I’m sure real-time reporting of mortality data is a high priority right now in Lombardy.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @for-the-record
  211. UK says:
    @Chinaman

    I think most will agree that White people have much stronger racial consciousness than most other people

    How you can write something that so obviously runs counter to global immigration policies etc. and how you can project that onto “most people”, can only mean that deep down you just prefer white people. Funny, but not as funny as you repressing it under all of the hate from your previous post.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  212. @Chinaman

    I think there’s something essential to that, which in some ways is very negative about Chinese culture in that it is very heavily based upon the family unit, to the extreme that it has led to ignoring any other goals. One of the Ming commanders who grew up with the Japanese, for example, was frustrated that Chinese troops really had little inclination to fight for the Emperor – if their families were threatened, they instantly deserted to protect their families instead.

    The word Emperor meant “Son of Heaven”; the Japanese took it seriously and sought to die for the Son of Heaven – the Chinese in the same circumstance basically said that if he’s so awesome, he should be able to defend himself. Amusing as it is, such thinking helped lead to the fall of the Ming.

    It has its positive aspects, of course, and is a central aspect of Confucian thinking(and possibly even before). It certain has a stabilizing effect but trying to draw inferences on how “humanity” is perceived by the Chinese without understanding the challenges of xiao versus zhōng throughout its history is futile. As the family clan has basically ceased in China, though, this also will mold and change.

    Such an analysis is wasted on IQ80 commentators, though.

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Chinaman
    , @Bardon Kaldian
    , @utu
  213. mcohen says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    sorry my apologies for the inconvenience.

  214. UK says:
    @Bill

    Of course it is a priority…it is a much bigger priority in fact. Do you know anything about how the world likely works?

    and disclaimers are normal…

    • LOL: Bill
  215. @UK

    “Some grandparents prefer to see their grandchildren flourish than eke a little more mostly unwell existence…”
    The most extreme example of this mindset probably comes from the Inuit. In times of hunger, the old and unwell would occasionally commit suicide by themself or via proxy, inorder to spare more food for the rest.

  216. @Anatoly Karlin

    The trouble with life expectancy is that it doesn’t take many factors into consideration. For the last dozen or so years, we have heard about “people are living longer”, which is true, but there is a context.
    All four of my grandparents were born in the 1870s. One grandmother died of TB at 59, the other at 96 of old age (her sister 103). One grandfather dropped dead of a heart attack at 68, the other of old age at 79. The average of that small sample is 73, slightly less than the average age of their children’s deaths. Many others have a similar familial histories. The number used until a few years ago by insurance companies was 78. An increase of 5 years over 120+ years.
    Actuarial estimates use the dates people were born, and the dates they die and produce an average number to create life expectancy charts. A crapload of young people killed in wars lowers the average number. Fewer wars = longer life expectancy.
    On the other side of the scale, in the financial world, like insurance companies and pension plans life expectancy is used to create financial models. Not considered in their arithmetic are medical advances. Thirty years ago, kids with cystic fibrosis would be lucky to live long enough to graduate high school. Today, they live into their 30s. They’ll never get life insurance or collect a pension, but they are part of the arithmetic. There are dozens more diseases or syndromes that now have extended life expectancy, including transplanted organs, cardiovascular and cancer patients. The other factor is that all of the people with these medical conditions or syndromes are immuno-compromised, and therefore at much higher risk than the general population. Their death rates will be much higher than the general population, if infected.
    Simple arithmetic yes, but it’s more complicated underneath.

  217. Chinaman says:
    @UK

    must be one of those Freudian slip then. Maybe I do prefer some of them and may be deep down, you have an Asian fetish. Who cares.

    Look, the white people that hang out at Unz and writes hundreds thousand words of comments belong to a very special demographics and the views they espouse are anything but mainstream views. I definitely hate the individuals who manifestly, identify themselves as white people here. I admit I sometimes try to get under their skin by writing something outrageous.

    But I also know that for every one of these nutters, there are another 5 other decent guy. That’s the problem with racism, there is much more variance at the level of the individual than on the racial level.

    We MIGHT have more in common with each other than with members of our own race. e.g. An Asian fetish?

    • Replies: @UK
  218. Chinaman says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    忠孝不能两全

    I guess that’s a real moral dilemma. Not the fake one wher you sacrifice your grandmother so you can go spring breaking.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
  219. UK says:
    @Chinaman

    I’ve slept with East Asianz but then I consider sex to be the easiest way to make a genuine connection; and therefore friends. I am sure many have seen me the same way.

    And this is what I generally like (connection) – lockdown is very hard for me.

    Nonetheless, I don’t have an East Asian fetish at all. I wouldn’t mind if I did, but I don’t.

    I do however find China souless and soul-crushing. It is the very opposite of Japan, which suffers from so much soul the entire place might just give up on life at any moment for their soulful suffering.

    This is no insult to the many Chinese I’ve met who do not conform and, to be fair, if you’re winding up people on Unz.com for the fun of it then you’re probably a good-humoured individual.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    , @GammaRay
  220. Chinaman says:
    @Dannyboy

    Hey, Dannyboy.

    Chill, bro. Just trying to get your attention and making sure you are keeping safe. You are so predictable and never fail to disappoint.

    You must be fuming at the keyboard ready to start WW3 when you read “preemptive war”. haha…

    Seriously, I know you are an old-timer so please look after yourself. Dying from the virus seem like a horrible death and I know you prefer going out in a blaze of glory (e.g. mass shooting?)

  221. @Daniel Chieh

    Yes, but you must not overlook that Confucius said that the Emperor could lose the Mandate of Heaven & that in some cases revolution is justified. I don’t have here the exact quote from Analects, but that’s what Confucius basically said. Cf. Wing Tsit Chan.

    The Japanese have never- I may be wrong, just..- truly assimilated skeptical & humanist dimensions of Confucian teachings.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  222. @Bill

    The EuruMOMO results for week 12 were released earlier today. For the first time they do show a sigificant rise for Italy above the “stratified baseline” but for Europe as a whole they are still showing deaths below “normal”, including in the 65+ years category.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/bulletin_pdf/2020/2020_12_bulletin.pdf

    For comparison, here are the results for week 11:

    https://www.euromomo.eu/bulletin_pdf/2020/2020_11_bulletin.pdf

    For 65+ here are the results for week 12:

    https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country65.html

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  223. @Gleimhart Mantooso

    I’m still waiting for this assertion to be supported.

  224. Mitleser says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    They are the demographic basis of the current white majority in the US.
    The longer they live, the more time whites have to preserve said majority.

  225. Trump is up to his neck in Conservative Inc. He is either too stupid or too feckless to notice the difference between his own campaign positions and the positions of Conservative inc. Not to mention that many members of Conservative Inc were Never Trumpers in 2016- a slight that he has never even brought up.

  226. @A123

    At this point I think that the GOP will retake the House. Of course, with ultra-left Wall Street Republicans around that may not be entirely a gift.

    Theres crazy on the internet but that takes the biscuit.

    • LOL: Ron Unz
    • Replies: @A123
  227. utu says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Was family integrity protected by the law in China and later in Communist China? Did they have “the rule of testimonium domesticum?”

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6cbe/ac52bcdf147daff075ecaeed8c5620f23edf.pdf
    The Romans strongly believed that the foundation of society was the family, and thus recognized the rule of testimonium domesticum. This rule mandated that parents and children could not be forced to testify against each other. The rule prevented the erosion of family relations, which the Romans saw as the basis of society. The Napoleonic Code also prohibited the compelled disclosure of confidences between family members, commanding that “[n]o one may be required to disclose confidences between himself and a family member.” The familial privilege is also recognized as part of the law in many other countries including France, West Germany, and Sweden.

    Or were they more like Bolsheviks who encourage family members denouncing other family members?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlik_Morozov
    Pavel Trofimovich Morozov (Russian: Па́вел Трофи́мович Моро́зов; 14 November 1918 – 3 September 1932), better known by the diminutive Pavlik, was a Soviet youth praised by the Soviet press as a martyr. His story, dated to 1932, is that of a 13-year-old boy who denounced his father to the authorities and was in turn killed by his family. His story was a subject of reading, songs, plays, a symphonic poem, a full-length opera and six biographies. The apotheosic cult had a huge impact on the moral norms of generations of children, who were encouraged to inform on their parents.

    Bolsheviks’ position could actually resonated with Jesus revolutionary spirit for ‘a greater good’:

    Do not think that I came to bring peace on earth. I did not come to bring peace but a sword. For I have come to ‘set a man against his father, a daughter against her mother, and a daughter-in-law against her mother-in-law’; And a man’s foes shall be they of his own household. He who loves father or mother more than Me is not worthy of Me. And he who loves son or daughter more than Me is not worthy of Me. – Matthew 10:34

    While the Catholic Church protected families and its role as the foundation of society at the same time it wanted to break up clannishness and tribalism so it have very severe laws concerning consanguinity:

    http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/04264a.htm
    The Church was prompted by various reasons first to recognize the prohibitive legislation of the Roman State and then to extend the impediment of consanguinity beyond the limits of the civil legislation. The welfare of the social order, according to St. Augustine (City of God XV.16) and St. Thomas (Suppl. Q. liii, a. 3), demanded the widest possible extension of friendship and love among all humankind, to which desirable aim the intermarriage of close blood-relations was opposed; this was especially true in the first half of the Middle Ages, when the best interests of society required the unification of the numerous tribes and peoples which had settled on the soil of the Roman Empire. By overthrowing the barriers between inimical families and races, ruinous internecine warfare was diminished and greater peace and harmony secured among the newly-converted Christians. In the moral order the prohibition of marriage between near relations served as a barrier against early corruption among young persons of either sex brought habitually into close intimacy with one another; it tended also to strengthen the natural feeling of respect for closely related persons (St. Thomas, II-II.154.9; St. Augustine, City of God XV.10).

    Apparently it not always worked vide: Sicilians. Somebody did a study using the distance to bishoprics:

    The Church, intensive kinship, and global psychological variation
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6466/eaau5141

    and in particular Sicily might be explained by Muslim rule:

    “Southern Italian bishoprics are included after the 11th century Norman conquest when the area was integrated into the Western Church. Before this conquest Southern Italy unlikely experienced the Western Church’s MFP [Marriage and Family Program]. Many bishoprics were destroyed by the Lombard invasion5, and the remaining ones failed to consolidate power and fill the same administrative function with jurisdictional authority as those in the Carolingian Empire.6 Local customs prevailed and “religious practices differed not only from one town to another but also from church to church” (Ramseyer (37), p. 8). Lombard duchies in the South recognized Byzantine hegemony, particularly in the years during which Byzantine power was at its height (880 to 960 (38)). Apart from Lombard rule, a large area of Southern mainland was Byzantine, with its weakly-enforced MFP7. Meanwhile, Sicily was Islamic.”

    Your comments about Chinese family and social philosophy are very appreciated.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  228. @TrudeauSux

    Love it when the peanut gallery with 50 cents in their bank account beak off about Trump’s bankruptcies.

    Well 50C is higher than negative equity so those guys are probably beating Trump on real net worth.

  229. jlc says:

    not covered :
    1) Virus doesn’t spread in warm and humid weather – this times right for low rate by November election
    2) Trump can cancel any federal guidelines thus leaving it to local officials to put shelter in place regulations, etc in place, giving them the blame for further economic disruption

  230. cortesar says:

    Karlin another doomer lol
    Just today 3.5 million people lost their jobs while the number of new reported deaths is 266
    Question for you genius How many of these 3.3 million will
    1- kill themselves
    2- die from stress exacerbating previous health condition
    3- get addicted to drugs
    4- suffer depression
    5- divorce
    6- break down psychologically
    ……

    It is fair to assume that 3.3 m will be followed by many more

    Bonus questions:
    1- How many people died this year from flu in USA
    2- What was suicide rate in years (1929-1933) following great depression

    • Replies: @utu
    , @cortesar
  231. utu says:
    @cortesar

    Life and death during the Great Depression
    https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

    For most age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937). In contrast, the recessions of 1921, 1930–1933, and 1938 coincided with declines in mortality and gains in life expectancy. The only exception was suicide mortality which increased during the Great Depression, but accounted for less than 2% of deaths. Correlation and regression analyses confirmed a significant negative effect of economic expansions on health gains.

  232. cortesar says:
    @cortesar

    Bottom line
    In the end there will not be millions dead (not even remotely close) while there will many millions unemployed in the midst of a great depression (if this lunacy is not stopped very soon)
    Clowns like you who helped spreading the panic and fear among females and effeminate men should be held accountable for what you have done
    I hope some among these millions will somehow find the way to exercise their vengeance

  233. @utu

    Chinese Communists held a society essentially trapped between traditional cultural mores and the essentially more evangelical ideas of Communism, which as you noted, indeed had a notion of greater good. Maoist and basically the “real Communists” settled the dispute by seeking to destroy culture and this was the most direct thrust of the “Cultural Revolution.”

    For example, the effort to Destroy the Four Olds:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Olds

    The Four Olds or the Four Old Things (simplified Chinese: 四旧; traditional Chinese: 四舊; pinyin: sì jiù) was a term used during the Cultural Revolution of 1966–76 in the People’s Republic of China to refer to the attempts of Communists to destroy elements of Chinese culture pre-communism. The Four Olds were: Old Customs, Old Culture, Old Habits, and Old Ideas.

    Or even more explicit anti-Confucian campaigns:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticize_Lin,_Criticize_Confucius

    The events that occurred during the “Criticize Lin, Criticize Confucius” campaign were “complex and often confusing”, but can be identified as occurring through four main phases. The first phase of the campaign began after the 1st Plenary Session of the 10th CCP Central Committee, in 1973. Following this session, Mao encouraged public discussions focused on criticizing Confucius and Confucianism, and on interpreting aspects of historical Chinese society within a Maoist theoretical perspective. These initial debates focused on interpreting the issues of slavery, feudalism, and the relationship between Confucianism and Legalism according to the social theories published by Mao and Karl Marx

    This isn’t just Communist, though. Chinese frustration with the backwardness of their society had been ongoing since at least the Late Qing, when the Chinese genuinely began to experience a sense of nationalism. Take, for example, the Madman’s Diary…

    [MORE]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Madman%27s_Diary

    The diary form was inspired by Nikolai Gogol’s short story “Diary of a Madman”, as was the idea of the madman who sees reality more clearly than those around him. The “madman” sees “cannibalism” both in his family and the village around him, and he then finds cannibalism in the Confucian classics which had long been credited with a humanistic concern for the mutual obligations of society, and thus for the superiority of Confucian civilization. The story was read as an ironic attack on traditional Chinese culture and a call for a New Culture.

    What was to be this New Culture, however? Its easier to tear down than to build up. Christianity was in fact an answer for some, as the Nationalist Chiang Kai-shek took genuinely to Methodism and I think among the KMT elite, including my family, it had led to a great sympathy and feeling for Christianity since. However, it was disruptive to Chinese culture in a substantial way, as it demanded monogamy and as you can see from Chiang’s own life, that was not really a common expectation of upper class Chinese.

    Japanese culture was in fact highly sought after – many Chinese leaders would actually have gone to Japan to study to learn, but after Japan invaded and especially after the Rape of Nanking, it became pretty much impossible to appreciate Japanese culture publically. You can’t in good faith loudly proclaim the awesomeness of people who just massacred an entire population of your people sadistically. Communism was thus another angle to drew the literari, often passionately and religiously, sometimes combining it with filial piety odd ways. One should note Mao’s wife dying for him:

    In October 1930, the local KMT warlord He Jian captured Yang Kaihui and her son Mao Anying. Her captors wanted her to publicly renounce Mao Zedong and the CPC, but she refused to do so. Even under torture, she is reputed to have told her captors that “You could kill me as you like, you would never get anything from my mouth”, “Chopping off the head is like the passing of wind, death could frighten cowards, rather than our Communists”, “Even if the seas run dry and the rocks crumble, I would never break off relations with Mao Zedong”, and “I prefer to die for the success of Mao’s revolution career”.

    As China has “normalized”, it has in many ways flowed back toward the Confucian mores in both good and bad, and often now with state support:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1603487/xi-jinping-endorses-promotion-confucius

    In January, 2011, a 9.5 metre bronze statue of the Chinese sage Confucius was unveiled at the north gate of the newly renovated National Museum, just off Tiananmen Square, not far from the portrait of Mao Zedong over the entrance to the Forbidden City.

    Of course, substantial parts of Confucianism that could have threatened them are gone now – as you noted, the idea of family members not being able to testify or accuse each other exists in the West, and even more strongly exists in Confucianism that explicitly indicates that loyalty to one’s father can surpass loyalty to one’s prince. At its greatest extent, it led to large familial clans with extremely limited loyalty to the Imperial Court.

    Well, China doesn’t have an Imperial Court anymore, but it does have the gigantic bureaucracy and many dynastic trappings(including the ability to plea one’s case in Beijing) once again. But with the one-child policy and modernity, there isn’t really family clans to get in the way of centralization and the problems of xiao(loyalty to family) and zhong(loyalty to country) become less common.

    Truly humanistic philosophies of universal love, I should note, are not alien to China. Mohism, for example, preached universal love:

    The concept of Ai (愛) was developed by the Chinese philosopher Mozi in the 4th century BC in reaction to Confucianism’s benevolent love. Mozi tried to replace what he considered to be the long-entrenched Chinese over-attachment to family and clan structures with the concept of “universal love” (jiān’ài, 兼愛). In this, he argued directly against Confucians who believed that it was natural and correct for people to care about different people in different degrees. Mozi, by contrast, believed people in principle should care for all people equally. Mohism stressed that rather than adopting different attitudes towards different people, love should be unconditional and offered to everyone without regard to reciprocation, not just to friends, family and other Confucian relations

    • Thanks: S, reiner Tor
  234. utu says:
    @Chinaman

    I agreed to the first part without reading your last paragraph about starting a preemptive war with America. You are nuts by any standards and more so by Chinese standards.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
    , @reiner Tor
  235. @Bardon Kaldian

    I should note that the Chinese were very literal about the idea that the Emperor should prove his Mandate at times. For an example, during a heavy rainstorm that threatened to sink the fleet amid the clamor, the sailers implored their general Koxinga to step out and intervene with the “dragons” and “angry spirits” and use his authority under Heaven to command the elements to stop.

    In some odd way, the Emperor had to act as a kind of shaman, and he had a responsibility “prove” his semi-divine status through perhaps mystical ability to provide better fortune, as opposed to enjoying the privilege of his semi-divine status.

    • Agree: Bardon Kaldian
  236. @Daniel Chieh

    I wanted to add – as Mozi was in 4th century BC, this concern of clannish versus universal love has been a debate that has been going on for a, let’s say, nontrivial amount of time.

  237. The economy will take a sharp dive in Q2, that’s now practically unavoidable (incidentally, I predicted as much a month ago).

    Get over yourself.

    As soon as Wuhun locked down anybody with any experience managing global supply chains knew what the future held.

    You are a grifter, and a poor one at that.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  238. utu says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Thanks a lot. I will look up the links.

  239. Agent76 says:

    Mar 25, 2020 How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? Which one is more worrisome?

    For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

  240. Chinaman says:
    @utu

    I am glad that you agree it is nuts since it is the kind of language Pompeo and John Bolton would routinely use when it comes to Iran or Venezuela. I guess it is a display of leadership to talk about Regime change, preemptive war and liberating other people if you are American but you are a nutcase if you dare to suggest the same thing in retaliation. I guess this is one of those failed sarcasm attempts and people do take these war threat seriously and literally. Quite empowering to know I can start Ww3 in people’s head with my keyboard.

  241. Exile says:
    @Dannyboy

    Dannyboy Crenshaw lays down the WWF Smackdown doctrine of geopolitics.

    Good goy, now go fetch your check.

    • Replies: @Dannyboy
  242. Exile says:
    @Chinaman

    I have no problem underbussing BoomerCon warporn types like Dannyboy Crenshaw but wtf is with:

    I don’t see any Hispanics or even blacks suggesting such immoral things.

    You’re not looking very hard. Try posting your “care more for your families” lecture (which I agree with, BTW) on Black Twitter or some site like The Root.

    American Whites have our issues but you’re either trolling Whites with that or you’re not living around our minorities.

  243. Chinaman says:
    @Just Passing Through

    Coronavirus is lifting a great burden from our shoulders, and the pragmatist should recognise this and embrace what is happening

    It reads like it is written by a human being but I have come to the conclusion that this particular commentator “ Just passing through” is a new generation of AI from Google and this is actually a Turing test. Unfortunately, its total lack of empathy and some level of human mimicry that resembles moral conscience ensures that IT failed the test. No human being or even subhumans in our evolutionary lineage can be so callous in the face of such tragedy. IT was also suggesting the genocide of Chinese on another thread. Only a machine absent of human emotions and empathy neural network would suggest we embrace the virus. I think the next stage of development for this AI is to subject it to some computer virus so it can learn what it is like to be human.

  244. Ron Unz says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I agree with that – events may well overtake Trump, thus “rescuing” him from his own blunders.

    The NY trends do look like that. I’m reposting a comment w/ graph that utu just left on my own “calculation” thread:

    New York Deaths Per Day –> very short death doubling period implied

    Raw data from:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8156905/New-York-records-100-coronavirus-death-24-hours-cases-increase-1000.html

  245. Tor597 says:
    @UK

    Well, I find white people to be unbelievably immoral.

    White people have a pathological desire to control and conquer the world. They are only interested in a world that serves them, and have to interest in harmony with other people.

    White people loved the Chinese and their culture when they could make money off them. But now that the free ride is ending a lot of white people don’t know how to handle it.

    A lot of the typical Anglo Divide and Conquer techniques haven’t worked, so now white people get all bitter and all they have left is schadenfraude.

    You could see the excitement when they thought the Corona Virus was going to wreck China permanently.

    Lol. And you call Asians soulless.

    • Agree: GammaRay
    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
    , @UK
  246. Antiwar7 says:
    @Chinaman

    No, sounds pretty human to me. See for example,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crucifixion

    According to Roman law, if a slave killed his or her master, all of the master’s slaves would be crucified as punishment.[92] Both men and women were crucified.[93][94][91] Tacitus writes in his Annals that when Lucius Pedanius Secundus was murdered by a slave, some in the Senate tried to prevent the mass crucifixion of four hundred of his slaves[92] because there were so many women and children, but in the end tradition prevailed and they were all executed.[95]

    And they actually nailed through people’s bones to do it, as shown by some remains.

  247. @Tor597

    Well, I find white people to be unbelievably immoral.

    And yet you’re not Jesus Christ, so you’re “moral standards” are worthless.

  248. A123 says:
    @Eugene Norman

    At this point I think that the GOP will retake the House. Of course, with ultra-left Wall Street Republicans around that may not be entirely a gift.

    Theres crazy on the internet but that takes the biscuit.

    The Left/Right scale is problematic. It was discussed here:

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/transitional-trump/#comment-3794307

    The 1% Elites of Wall Street maximize value extraction by:
    — Globalism (outsourcing), and
    — Open Borders (lower wages and coercive visa rules)

    Thus, in the U.S. the two diametrically opposed sides are:
    — GLOBALIST — Wall Street 1% Multiculturalism
    — POPULIST — Main Street 99% Christian
    ______

    Romney is unquestionably a 1% Elite Globalist. His firm, Bain Capital is a poster child for anti-Citizen, Wall Street Globalism: (1)

    How the GOP presidential candidate and his private equity firm staged an epic wealth grab, destroyed jobs … what most voters don’t know is the way Mitt Romney actually made his fortune: by borrowing vast sums of money that other people were forced to pay back.

    Do you want more evidence that Trump and Romney are on opposite sides?

    Romney is theoretically a Republican, but he:
    — Undermines Trump and the GOP’s attempts at Populist reform.
    — Romney is so ultra-Globalist, he actively aided and abetted the Elite 1% DNC sham impeachment on bogus charges of “Obstruction of Nothing” (2)

    Newly acquitted President Trump railed against his impeachment Tuesday at the White House and singled out the lone Republican who found him guilty, Sen. Mitt Romney. … “Romney’s a disgrace for voting against, he’s a disgrace,” Trump said in the Oval Office, as he aired his grievances against those who helped launch the inquiry.

    Thus we can further define the two diametrically opposed sides:
    — Biden, Clinton, ROMNEY — Globalist, vs.
    — TRUMP — Populist

    If Trump is”Right” then Romney must be “Left”. You could make a case to flip the scale. Trump is”Left” and thus Romney must be “Right”. This is why the Left/Right scale is awkward for current day U.S. Politics.
    ______

    Let me restate my original point… removing the words “Left & Right”, as they are badly befuddling some readers and agitating them into a tizzy.

    A very narrow House win for the GOP could create problems if there are enough 1% Elite, Ultra-Globalist traitors in the GOP House caucus to obstruct Trump’s Populist reforms necessary to help U.S. Citizens.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-183291/

    (2) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-romney-a-disgrace-impeachment-vote

  249. @Chinaman

    Estrangement from one’s biological parents is so much higher in America than anywhere I know of.

    (((America))) is not white.

  250. @utu

    But is it insane by utu standards? You are the one who expressed overwhelming joy at the thought of a nuclear war between Israel and Russia.

  251. @Change that Matters

    Yeah, but most people didn’t know. Including Wall Street, which hit new all time highs during the Wuhan lockdown.

  252. Donia says:
    @Chinaman

    You are absolutely correct that there is a lot of family estrangement in western culture, especially these days. This is because unfortunately, a lot of today’s 60 and 70 year olds in western countries were horrible, horrible parents and so their kids nurse justified anger and resentment. Check out all the boomer memes.

    What goes around, comes around. Western boomers as a generation are known for a lot of bad things.

  253. Ron Unz says:

    NYC => Northern Italy

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  254. GammaRay says:
    @UK

    I do however find China souless and soul-crushing. It is the very opposite of Japan, which suffers from so much soul the entire place might just give up on life at any moment for their soulful suffering.

    Ive always found the alt-right exaltation of japan to be cringe-worthy. Wanna know what I think is the real reason behind it? Its because alt-righters are highly conscious of the power of the “racist” smear, as a result of this they seek some kind of magical charm which can neutralize any potential accusation of white supremacy/hating other races; it just so happens that asians, and more specifically the japanese are just that magic charm. In their minds, alt-righters believe that they can ward off accusations of white supremacist beliefs/hating other races by bringing up their adulation of japan; it gives them a way of saying: “hey look at me, I can’t be one of those awful white supremacists who hates all non-whites since I respect a non-white culture like the japanese so much!”. Its really painfully transparent what their angle is though

    If we consider white nationalism as a “religion” then japan-love would be one of the central sacraments to that religion since it performs such a useful role as a mechanism which allows for its adherents to more boldly proclaim white supremacy while also having a convenient anti-racist fig-leaf to hide behind. China obviously can’t be used since alt-righters (mistakenly) project their own western mindsets onto the chinese and see the chinese as an existential threat, however japan on the other hand is a perfect object of worship since it can be worshiped while at the same time not posing a threat since its been rendered effectively powerless and cucked by the US. I suspect that alt-righters almost view japan as a bit of a tragic trophy, a rightful “possession” of the west in the same way that spanish conquistadors might have viewed the broken aztecs.

    With that being said, I do acknowledge that japanese culture does seem quite refined and sophisticated. This isnt just an alt-right delusion, there is an objective basis to this perception. However I think that alt-righters try to massively exaggerate the qualitative differences between the japanese and the chinese in order to help nurture their own psychological complexes and baggage. What’s my own opinion about the two cultures? Honestly chinese and japanese people both seem pretty similar. Japanese people do seem more genteel to me, and I guess some people might interpret that as a form of “soul”, however I have never got the impression that japanese people have this particularly vivid, deep and mysterious inner-world that alt-righters like to act the japanese possess. As for the chinese, they do feel more “raw”, practical and perhaps unpolished to me, but ironically I feel like that gives them more soul and not less.

    I do think its important however to acknowledge that china is still a 2nd world country and japan on the other hand has been a 1st world country for quite a long time. Because of this there is a cultural lag, something which I see alt-righters foolishly overlook (or more likely they just ignore). Of course its easy to pin the chinese as being uncouth and barbarians, they’re literally a developing country, what the fuck do you expect? I never see alt-righters acknowledge this though since it would shatter their fiction that the japanese are inherently more human than the “soulless” chinese. I wouldn’t expect that level of analysis from alt-righters anyways though since alt-righters are more concerned about personal emotional gratification as opposed to the pursuit of truth for the sake of truth itself.

    • Agree: Tor597
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Malenfant
    , @UK
  255. @for-the-record

    The uptick is there despite a full lockdown and only a small subset of the population being infected. Even in Lombardy, the vast majority of the population is not infected (or else how to explain the extremely high Bergamo mortality?), and outside Northern Italy there’s not even an epidemic of any sorts. Basically, it’s showing a flu-like mortality uptick despite having infected many fewer people (yet). Potentially, it’s going to infect many more (unless we do something drastic – the argument for lockdown).

  256. utu says:
    @GammaRay

    Interesting. Many good points. Agree that these are mostly self-serving projections.

  257. Malenfant says:
    @GammaRay

    Very high quality post.

    Agreed on all counts.

    > “As for the chinese, they do feel more “raw”, practical and perhaps unpolished to me, but ironically I feel like that gives them more soul and not less.”

    Cantonese and Taiwanese folk aside, the Chinese are much like Americans (read: “heritage Americans,” or “how Americans used to be”): They’re loud, brash, industrious, practical, and genuinely patriotic.

    (A note on that: Most Chinese people — even people under 30 — have seen their cities and villages lifted out of poverty with their own eyes. Under the circumstances, it would be churlish not to love one’s country.)

    When asked if they were willing to fight for their country, only 11% of Japanese said that they would. Japan is truly a cucked nation. In America, 44% said that they would answer the call. In China, that number is 71%. They’re as far above us as we are above Japan.

    We were just like them, once.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @dfordoom
  258. UK says:
    @Tor597

    Are you sure you’re not perfectly describing your own shadow….

  259. UK says:
    @GammaRay

    If you can’t feel the stark differences between China and Japan then I probably can’t help you. I guess you’re probably not that good at reading social situations either. Perhaps one way though, would be to simply listen to tourist announcements in Chinese and Japanese. Maybe that will help.

    As for the rest of your post, it has nothing to do with me.

  260. @Chinaman

    What you insinuate as human morality is actually Christian morality. This has been the most devastating thing to ever befall the European peoples as it has made them weak and sentimental.

    As another commenter showed in a video of a van running over a child in China, and multiple passers by ignoring the gravely injured child, Chinese have not yet fallen prey to these Christian values. If that is how they treat an in-group, just imagine how they will treat out-group!

    The Jews are going to use Chinese as their footsoldiers to exterminate us, that is why they pass on US military secrets to China, like the IAI Lavi and the Python 3 missile.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  261. @utu

    What’s going on with Bulgaria?

  262. Iva says:
    @Tusk

    Could we expose please expose Dan Patrick. For me he can go FIRST to the other side.

  263. Ano4 says:
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Unfortunately, the situation in US is now highly predictable in a very unpleasant way.

    The number of positive tested cases doubles in NY every 3 days.

    If resting was done on an adequate scale, a similar picture would emerge in Florida and Louisiana, California coming close behind.

    Now, given that there’s no interstate lockdowns enforcement, the virus is still spreading.

    In a couple of weeks, tens of thousands of people will require Intensive care treatments that the US hospitals cannot provide.

    These people will die.

    Some of rhe medical personnel taking care of them will get infected and also die, it has already started.

    The death rate in Italy and Iran has been much higher than in China.

    US will probably set up a new historical record.

    Just wait a couple of weeks and let’s discuss it again.

    That is if you and/or your loved ones aren’t in a hospital somewhere.

    A bad luck I for one wish you not.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  264. Ano4 says:
    @calculator

    Karlin has grown up in the USA and I doubt he is ethnically Russian in the most direct manner (Y haplogroup R1a Slav ancestry).

    Anatoly decided to move to Russia a few years ago, but before he lived in the US for the most part of his life.

    When he spoke Russian a few years ago, he had an American accent and this typical western pronunciation.

    🙂

    I believe he is a millennial equivalent to Mr Unz.

    That is a person of Jewish ancestry that for whatever reason feels an inclination to side with far right wing ideologies.

    I am oversimplifying of course.

    Now, the cartoons are the 4Chan lingo, that’s the way younger people interact online today.

    And they’re actually fun.

    This being clarified, Anatoly Karlin is a very intelligent person I truly enjoy reading.

    And I expect his hypothesis to hold in the COVID-19 case.

    Unfortunately…

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  265. Ron Unz says:
    @Ano4

    Unfortunately, the situation in US is now highly predictable in a very unpleasant way.

    The number of positive tested cases doubles in NY every 3 days.

    If resting was done on an adequate scale, a similar picture would emerge in Florida and Louisiana, California coming close behind.

    You might sadly be correct about Florida and Louisiana, but California was the first state in the US to go into full lock-down, almost ten days ago and is (I think) doing pretty well. That’s despite the fact that Silicon Valley was the original American epicenter of Coronavirus.

    As I’ve pointed out, absent widespread testing, the best way to estimate (lagged) infections is by using the death-totals, which are reasonably solid:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    Since there’s roughly a three-week period between infection and death, the impact of the CA lock-down hasn’t yet manifested itself, and I’m reasonably confident things are in pretty good shape.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    , @A123
  266. Chinaman says:
    @Just Passing Through

    I am genuinely fascinated with how your mind works and reality as you see it.

    Can you describe just what utopia would look like to you ? Let’s assume all the other subhuman races beside “white” people and the usual suspects such as Jews have been exterminated and only people who looked similar to you exist, what’s next? Who is going to be next victim? We also get rid of democracy too so you have absolute power, What kind of society would you like to build?

    We are at the cusp of the singularity and various scientific breakthroughs ( quantum computing, CRISPR, brain mapping ) to the extent we are able to transcend our humanity and control own genetic destiny in the next 50 years. We become gods, Homo Deus as one proselytizer like to put it. Robotics will solve most of the economic probLems. All of these petty human conflicts and internecine wars is going to pretty much fade away and become irrelevant in the next few generations. perhaps the biggest risk for humanity going forward ( may be in 200 years) is Another entity that think like you…an AI devoid of human emotions and unconstrained by morality. As in the Terminator, the Skynet will reach the same conclusion (as you did ) that most human beings are redundant and eliminated Us all..you and your beloved white people Included. this is the real existential crisis for humankind.

    I implore you to look ahead of what is ahead of us and not only at the present.

  267. Ano4 says:

    Russian military medical personnel have started working in one of Bergamo’s hospitals in Northern Italy.

    Poland after kvetching much about Russian and Chinese help to Italy, and forbidding the Russian military medical Antonovs passing through its airspace en route to Northern Italy, has just accepted two cargo planes of medical supplies from China.

    Maybe Mr Trump should ask for a few Antonovs full of Biodefense decontamination supplies and respirators to be sent to JFK and/or La Guardia?

    I am sure Mr Putin would oblige.

    • Replies: @utu
  268. @Chinaman

    The technologies you talk of are exist only in the realms of science fictions, the Chinese have still not managed to find the “smart gene” despite much money and effort being thrown at the endeavour via the BGI. The Chinese also don’t have the baggage of the Holocaust legend to weight down their efforts towards eugenic technologies.

    If the Chinese develop this technology, they will never share it and use it for themselves to conquer the world, it would be insane to do anything else.

    My ideal would would be an all Nordic world with eugenics as it’s key principle. This Nordic world would likely conquer the stars. We would have moon bases by now if the National Socialists had won, and people would be much better looking in general because of the pro-Nordic reproductive policies.

    Your ode of thought is very similar to Steven Pinker who says everything is getting better and that we will all enjoy continually better living standards. This is untrue as life is a zero-sum game and if someone wins, other must lose. Chinese won by manufacturing things and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, White lost by losing their livelihood and falling prey to the Tribe of financial parasites.

    All humans think alike to some degree and dominance is a key quality of humans, the Chinese are not a hegemonic behemoth like America was but when they become one, they will not be kind.

    Whites need to end this cycle of “rise and fall” as this prevents peace of mind. After one cataclysmic race war, there would be eternal peace as there would be no divisions in the world.

    • Replies: @Ano4
    , @Chinaman
  269. Ano4 says:
    @Ron Unz

    That would be great news if California was getting the situation under control.

    It would show the other US jurisdictions the right way to take care of this epidemic outbreak.

    I am using your calculator to estimate the number of infected people since I read your article earlier this week.

    Before that I was using a different approach and arrived to similar results +/_ 25%.

    But your way of calculating is more straightforward.

    I have shared it with friends and relatives.

    So maybe your calculator will go viral (pun intended)…

    • Thanks: Ron Unz
  270. A123 says:
    @Ron Unz

    You might sadly be correct about Florida and Louisiana, but California was the first state in the US to go into full lock-down, almost ten days ago and is (I think) doing pretty well.

    To date, there is no evidence that the virus has spread widely in Louisiana or Florida. There is sound science that shows that hot, humid weather limits contagion. New York City is colder and thus more friendly to the disease. Also, NYC has a “no social distance” subway system to accelerate disease transmission.

    Florida, does have specific pockets with large numbers of assisted living facilities and nursing homes. If cases turn up in Florida, they are likely to be in these highly localized pockets rather than the broad area problem in New York.

    PEACE 😷

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @Ano4
  271. @Chinaman

    I am genuinely fascinated with how your mind works and reality as you see it.

    Its a four letter word that starts with t and ends with l.

    Other aspects include confirmation bias, and a feminine-leaning need for attention.

  272. Ron Unz says:
    @A123

    To date, there is no evidence that the virus has spread widely in Louisiana or Florida. There is sound science that shows that hot, humid weather limits contagion.

    Well, there have been 83 deaths in Louisiana (the same number as California, although CA has nearly 10 times the population).

    Assuming a 1% death rate and three weeks from infection to death, doesn’t that imply that 8,300 people were infected there three weeks ago? And wouldn’t you assume that they’ve infected others during those three weeks? If the doubling-time is 5 days, total infections would now be over 80,000. Applying the same analysis to Florida, suggests 30,000 current infections. If the doubling-time is actually 3 days, the totals would be vastly higher.

    That’s why my methodology is convenient for getting rough infection estimates based upon known death totals:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/correctly-estimating-coronavirus-infections/

    • Replies: @A123
  273. 128 says:

    Well if this virus mutates and starts to kill millenials and generation z, considering that the triumph of globohomo is due to them? And that they are the most pozzed generation?

  274. A123 says:
    @Ron Unz

    Well, there have been 83 deaths in Louisiana (the same number as California, although CA has nearly 10 times the population).

    Well, there was a major February event in New Orleans.

    I think it would be fair to say that Mardi Gras is a “no social distance” gathering. The DNC mayor, LaToya Contrell, made sure that celebrations took place as scheduled. (1)

    Health experts and state officials believe it is the month-long street party in February known as Mardi Gras which contributed to the severity of the outbreak in the city of some 400,000 people on the Mississippi River.

    New Orleans alone accounts for … 46 of the deaths.

    Over half the deaths (46/83) are definitely in New Orleans. It is not clear if the 46 is based on “city limits” or “metro area”. So, the concentration may actually be higher if it is “city limits”.

    Again, there does not seem to be a wide area spread. It is localized and ties back to a specific risk that will not be repeated in the near future.

    The upside of the model you are using is its convenience. The downside, is that it can be misleading if there are specific one-off factors.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://news.yahoo.com/mardi-gras-perfect-storm-virus-spread-orleans-200020720.html

  275. Ano4 says:
    @A123

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/atypically-high-levels-fever-flu-symptoms-detected-florida

    In a couple of weeks more than a few of those people will be confirmed COVID-19 cases.

    I agree with the climate impact on viral spread.

    Although the same factors that decrease viral aerosols ‘ persistence in the air (i.e. higher relative humidity) might also increase viral persistence under higher UV light prevalence in the sunlight spectrum.

    Moreover, the aerosols being trapped into bigger droplets due to higher moisture in the atmosphere, would probably better protect the virus once it fell from the air onto surfaces.

    Where it might then stay infectious for a longer period of time.

    A viral transmission model needs to take many factors into account.

    It is too early for COVID-19 to produce a clear picture of its persistence in the environment.

    Lower cases we seem to see in tropical countries might as well be explained by a substantially lower of testing.

    If you test nothing, then you find nothing.

    If you don’t test for COVID-19, then it is just another influenza with somewhat higher comorbidities.

    It’s just another flu…

    😉

    • Replies: @A123
  276. Ano4 says:
    @Just Passing Through

    Well, if CCCP did not disintegrate in 1991, we would be on Mars now.

    Soviet Mars expeditions were planned for the end of the 90-ies.

    Search for Project Aelita online in English.

    Here’s a Russian language link:

    https://tech.wikireading.ru/667

    We don’t need National Socialism to have technological advances.

    What we need is a society turned towards technological innovation.

    Nazis had it, Soviets had it, Americans had it and now it’s the Chinese that have it at its’ maximum.

    And I wish them well.

    As a lifelong admirer of Russian Cosmist thinkers, I hope to live long enough to see humankind breaking from its planetary cradle (see Tsiolkovsky’s take on it).

  277. Well, if CCCP did not disintegrate in 1991, we would be on Mars now.
    Soviet Mars expeditions were planned for the end of the 90-ies.

    Meanwhile in a real world, not paperplanned fantasy one, Sovoks couldn’t even land on a Moon, lol 🙂

    • Replies: @mal
    , @Ano4
  278. A123 says:
    @Ano4

    The current graphic does *not* have huge pink/red highlights splattered all over Florida.

    https://healthweather.us

    Whatever caused the outlier for “atypical”:

    — Already ended, or
    — More likely was a technical/experimental method glitch and the condition never actually existed.

    PEACE 😷

  279. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Malenfant

    When asked if they were willing to fight for their country, only 11% of Japanese said that they would. Japan is truly a cucked nation. In America, 44% said that they would answer the call. In China, that number is 71%.

    It’s a meaningless question. It depends on the circumstances. Most people would probably fight for their country if their country was actually threatened with invasion. But they probably wouldn’t do so if it was going to be just another pointless stupid imperialist war.

    Given that all of America’s wars since 1945 have been pointless stupid imperialist wars it’s depressing that 44% of Americans would still fight such wars.

    The Japanese know that in the world of today they face zero military threats so it’s rational for them to be unenthusiastic about the idea of war.

    The Chinese on the other hand know that they face an existential military threat from the US so naturally they’d be more willing to fight.

  280. mal says:
    @sudden death

    Well, that’s a bit harsh.

    First man made object to arrive on the Moon was a Soviet probe, so in that sense, USSR beat Americans to the Moon.

    Soviet manned program was poorly thought out (they basically tried to to find employment for an obsolete nuclear bomb booster rocket, not so much send a man there), but the idea of sending people there was not really scientifically necessary (which is why Americans stopped as well).

    Soviet robotic Moon exploration program was far cheaper and far more successful. Lunokhod drove around and conducted scientific observations, and sample return missions were done without the need for humans.

    In terms of scientific value and cost/benefit analysis, Soviet moon program wasn’t too bad compared to American one.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  281. Ano4 says:
    @sudden death

    Yes, and the mighty Americans are currently unable to return to the moon.

    One of the reasons of their inability probably being the fact that to get to the orbit at all, they currently need buying rocket engines that these Sovoks you consider inept have developed back in the 70ies.

    Or closer to the topic of this thread: take Arbidol, developed by the Sovoks in the 70ies: it has been just recently used successfully by the Wuhan medics to treat coronavirus, but Americans have just noticed its existence with the CDC starting a clinical trial to know if it safe.

    Starting clinical trials on a drug that has been used without major side-effects for at least 20 years.

    Because you know, not made in the USA.

    I am sure this careful approach by the CDC, is going to make New Yorkers safer in the weeks to come.

    Not…

    🙂

    • Replies: @Dannyboy
  282. Robjil says:
    @utu

    That is what our Zion MSM says. It never wants to admit anything good about Russia.

    Russia at least is doing something.

    https://southfront.org/italians-were-dumbstruck-by-russian-specialists-speed/

    The participants in the Russian operation to assist Italy in the fight against COVID-19 said that the Italians were “dumbstruck by our speed of action.”

    In just 24 hours, Russia sent unprecedented humanitarian aid to Italy, which in its official press reports tactfully called “an operational group of military doctors, specialists in the field of virology and epidemiology, with modern equipment for diagnosis and disinfection.”

    • Agree: utu
  283. Ano4 says:
    @mal

    I agree,

    And ierestingly enough as of this year:

    “Boeing is buying Russian-made power converters for its new Starliner manned capsule programme, the company’s space division has confirmed”

    https://www.spacedaily.com/m/reports/Boeing_buying_Russian_components_for_Starliner_999.html

    Seems the old Sovok tech’s not so bad after all.

    🙂

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @mal
  284. Dannyboy says:
    @Ano4

    And why should we return to the Moon? To prove to you envious petulant little tards that it can be done?

    We did it six times for fuck’s sake.

    I got a better idea. How about you and your Communist supermen do it?

    Just once will suffice.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  285. Dannyboy says:
    @Exile

    I’m truly sorry if I’ve offended your delicate sensibilities, snowflake.

    I generally try to adhere to the wisdom of General Nathan Bedford Forrest.

    Never be haughty to the humble, or humble to the haughty.

  286. @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    Yeah, that’s why there are plenty of conspiracy theories about H. Ross Perot floating around out there. Personally though, I think he was a good guy and I, too, wish he had won that election.

  287. Chinaman says:
    @Just Passing Through

    This is untrue as life is a zero-sum game and if someone wins, other must lose. Chinese won by manufacturing things and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, White lost by losing their livelihood and falling prey to the Tribe of financial parasites.

    Don’t really know how to respond except to say that I understand a bit now why you hold those views and that zero sum game mentality drives most of your thought process. Zero sum game is an economic concept which, as used in a colloquial manner, have been abused to the point it is used to justify any agenda. Most of life is NOT zero sum but governed by utility and comparative advantage. What you described of white losing their livelihood is a distribution problem. This is a separate issue which should be addressed with a universal basic income ( in your utopia…) Hundreds of million Chinese toiling to export manufacturing products lower the cost of these items such that more whites can enjoy these items. These chinaman are all working for you in exchange for the piece of paper from the US treasury. If you don’t realise it, they are still in relative poverty compared to the lifestyle you enjoy but it is better than absolute poverty. Both parties are happy. This is why it is NOT a zero game.

    It is hard to deny that, in all likelihood, only one race will prevail in the final showdown between asian and whites. Genocide seems to be pretty much written in our DNA and much of our evolutionary history. There are no neanderthals, homo erectus or Denisovans because OUR common ancestors, Homo sapiens wipe them out. Yes, 50-80000 years ago, me and you shared an ancestor in Central Asia there is a blink of eye in evolutionary time. You and I would be black and pretty ugly then. Not trying to say we are brothers blah blah but trying to illustrate why your Nordic paradise will dissolve in a few generation as eugenic, evolution, associative mating eugenic create distinct populations ( 200 IQ vs 150 IQ) which ensure conflicts and inequality. The white utopia you are fighting is a stagnant equilibrium which is unattainable and doesn’t exist in nature. Colonisation of Mars and other planets ensure adaptations which will make the human race diverge again. Your white skin can’t deal with all the solar radiation in that thin atmosphere and the white race will become African black in 20 generations. This is why I ask you to think about the future and a bit beyond your own mortality. It is all futile and stupid.we are here for a very short time and all this animosity is so pointless.

    P.s. all the technology I mentioned have already in progress and not science fiction.

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/start-ups/article/3035204/chinese-researchers-hail-googles-quantum-computing-breakthrough-call

    You think the Chinese is threatening your livelihood of whites? You should focus your genocidal tendencies on these thing which will be commercially available in 20 years.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
  288. Ano4 says:
    @Dannyboy

    But it is you who made several announcements about you guys returning to the moon without anyone asking you people about it.

    And then you just didn’t follow suit.

    And no need to worry, soon enough Chinese “Communist” supermen will go there.

    As for the reason why, maybe this might explain:

    https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/science/physics/helium-3-lunar-gold-fever/

  289. @Chinaman

    You have quite the complex about white people

  290. utu says:
    @John Burns, Gettysburg Partisan

    https://www.unz.com/article/trump-as-cyrus-has-yahweh-grasped-him-by-his-right-hand/#comment-3648835
    “Useful idiot Ross Perot enters the race. The exact repeat of play from 1912 election when the incumbent Taft was denied reelection by the third party run of Teddy Roosevelt to elect Wilson. Clinton is elected and just like Wilson does everything Wall Street wants. Clinton deregulates banking and sets the course for the neoliberal globalization.”

  291. mal says:
    @Ano4

    If you want to see cool Russian/Soviet space tech, look up Psyche mission by NASA. It will take off in a year or two and will study Psyche – metallic asteroid, in order to better understand planet formation. It also happens to be of immense value to people contemplating asteroid mining.

    Spacecraft is being built by University of Arizona, and propulsion on it is SPT140 – Hall Effect (magnetic plasma) thruster, made by Russian Fakel.

    For where the future is , TEM (транспортно энергетический модуль) is very interesting – a nuclear electric space tug. I really wish Roscosmos would prioritize that technical development.

    If Putler reads this blog, he needs to squeeze Rogozin so that he stops wasting time and money on the same old orbital booster variants, and funds awesome groundbreaking technology such as nuclear electric instead.

    Russia has the best plasma drives on the planet, and extensive space nuclear power experience. Combining the two technologies is an obvious direction to take.

    • Replies: @Ano4
  292. @Daniel Chieh

    Externally Confucianist, Internally Legalist. The nature of the Chinese state since the Han dynasty. An interesting note is that Mao was fan of legalism back when he was a teenager and wrote an entry in his diary defending Shang Yang.

  293. Ano4 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Happens to the best of us and I certainly wouldn’t hold this against you.

    🙂

    Besides, I have no grudges with Jewish people at all.

    They are IMHO neither good, nor bad.

    They are simply the product of their historical record.

    Their Karma if you like (in a 1917 bringing about 1933 manner).

    🙂

    From this point of view, they are similar to any other human subgroup on the face of this planet.

    В общем, рад познакомиться Анатолий, Вы судя по всему умный и интересный человек.

    Буду и в будущем с удовольствием читать ваши посты.

    🙂

  294. Ano4 says:
    @mal

    I remember being in a night train between Piter and Moskva in 1994 and having as company a couple of guys from some closed down NII that lamented the demise of Soviet science.

    One of them told us that they developed plasma thrusters where he worked.

    He said that they had working proof of concept prototypes.

    He said that it was absolutely unique and revolutionary.

    He was more than bitter that his lab closed down.

    Nice to know that a similar technology is finally being used.

    Maybe it’s based on the device my passenger companion was talking about.

    Not sure the dude survived the blessed 90ies though…

    • Agree: mal
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