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500+ confirmed cases and closing on 20 deaths as of today. It seems to be highly virulent, much more so than SARS, which took 4 months to spread out of China vs. a couple of weeks with the Wuhan coronavirus. It’s already in the US, and, from today, in Russia.

Live updates here.

The nice thing is that cases seem to be underestimated by an order of magnitude (Imperial College saying 4,000 cases), so the true mortality rate should be well under 1%.

So, about as contagious as the Spanish Flu, but ~10x-100x less morbid. And likewise ~10-100x less morbid than SARS, though much more virulent.

Hopefully it doesn’t mutate into a much more morbid form.

Also the Chinese should really stop consuming what man was not meant to consume.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Corona, Disease 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. iffen says:

    Also the Chinese should really stop consuming what man was not meant to consume.

    What’s wrong with Corona?

    It is much better than that piss water Dos Equis.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  3. Correction: it’s a coronavirus. Coronavirinae in the family Coronaviridae, in the order Nidovirales. Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and with a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry. Coronaviruses cause a lot of things, from mild common cold to a lot worse afflictions, including triggering a severe pneumonia.

  4. @iffen

    Americans traveling to Mexico are advised not to order Corona, to avoid being immediately identified as gringos. BTW, Modelo Especial is a lot better than Corona. If you are into darker varieties, Mexican Negra Modelo and Peruvian Cusqueña are both much better.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack, mal
    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @iffen
  5. iffen says:
    @AnonFromTN

    Americans traveling to Mexico are advised not to order Corona, to avoid being immediately identified as gringos. BTW, Modelo Especial is a lot better than Corona. If you are into darker varieties,

    According to Fred Reed they should be smart enough to identify us gringos before we get drunk and become obnoxious Americans.

    Suh, my lips will never touch a “darker variety.”

  6. iffen says:
    @AnonFromTN

    You appear to be a lot more intelligent when you write in your field rather than about politics.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  7. songbird says:

    Also the Chinese should really stop consuming what man was not meant to consume.

    Whatever it came from originally (bats?), I’m going to guess that chickens were the intermediary step. This is why factory-farming chickens is so important: keeping chickens in their own warehouse helps segregate them from other animals that can cause zoonoses.

    I have mentioned it before, but the feel-good progressive trend to free-range chickens may end up killing millions of people.

  8. Mr. XYZ says:

    Also the Chinese should really stop consuming what man was not meant to consume.

    You mean pork/pigs, or something else?

  9. @Mr. XYZ

    That as well, but they were also apparently selling (live!) wolf pups at that market! Perhaps Wuhan deserves its plague but civilized peoples do not.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @iffen
    , @Hail
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  10. Mitleser says:
    @Mr. XYZ

  11. 8 plus hare, bison, alligator and probably horsemeat sold as beef.

    Bats are a huge reservoir of infectious diseases e.g. ebola. They roost in trees and shower droppings on animals beneath. Scary.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    , @Znzn
  12. songbird says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    I feared he might say beef, as is the custom in India. But pig is nearly as bad – or worse because it is more economical and its cuts encompass a variety of tastes.

    I don’t know Chinese eating habits well enough to say whether they really eat stranger stuff on the average, or whether it is simply that the large population means that there are more eccentrics. But it is interesting to think about: suppose we assumed Chinese really did eat everything that moved, I wonder if it might be partly explained by them having appreciably longer intestines. Or would that be a minus, when eating strange stuff? Maybe, the need to develop a long intestines would just be a concomitant to seeking nutrition from weird places?

  13. JPM says:

    This is spreading a lot faster than SARS.

    China will quarantine Wuhan, which is no small feat for a city of 11 million.

    Given how well China controlled the African Swine Fever breakout this could be big problem.

  14. @Philip Owen

    Lamb (tonight), goat and pigeon too.

    • Replies: @songbird
  15. iffen says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    but they were also apparently selling (live!) wolf pups at that market!

    I can see the Cheyenne Dog Soldiers Asian ancestry, but the Yamnaya Wolf Cult?

  16. @Mitleser

    Poultry, pork, cattle, rabbit, deer, duck, crocodile. 7/28.

    I laid out my thoughts on this topic here: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/animals/.

  17. songbird says:
    @Philip Owen

    I dissected a pigeon in school once – was surprised by how much meat the breast contained. I would say that, at least by portion size, it would make a pretty good sandwich. Looked like pretty dark meat though. No idea how it tastes.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    , @Blinky Bill
  18. Hail says: • Website
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Apparently it is true that the practice of eating monkey brains is also known in China.

    If I’m not wrong, monkeys in central Africa are also the postulated origin of the HIV virus in humans. But was it eating or was it the, err, other conceivable method?

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  19. @Anatoly Karlin

    virus rewires brain to have them infect more people?

    It would be fascinating, and kind of scary, if this was the actual reason. However, there’s some pretty clear possible confounding factors, the most obvious being that people avoid social interaction prior to getting the shot in order to avoid being infected. It could even be subconscious, e.g., “wow I’m immune to the flu now” and proceeding to act more confidently. Even the day of the week the study was conducted on could have an impact.

    You really need a randomized blinded study, although doing so ethically might be a problem. Perhaps you could call back the placebo group after the 48 hours and proceed to give them the real vaccine?

  20. @AnonFromTN

    Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and with a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry.

    Ah damn, here I was thinking that they’re enveloped viruses with a negative-sense double-stranded RNA genome with a nucleocapsid of helical asymmetry. I had a feeling something was off, but I couldn’t quite put my finger on it. So thanks for clearing that up!

    • LOL: reiner Tor
  21. @Hail

    Apparently it is true that the practice of eating monkey brains is also known in China.

    Shit, that’s actually a thing? I thought it was something they made up in Indiana Jones.

  22. @Mitleser

    9/28:

    Pork, beef, poultry, duck, rabbit, kangaroo, snake, deer, wild boar.

    • Replies: @songbird
  23. Svevlad says:

    This one apparently originated from a fish market. Now that’s rare!

    Though what do you know, with such a long incubation time who knows

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  24. Svevlad says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I swear that there was some research that proved that when disease starts to recede but you’re still infectious you really do become more outgoing. Don’t remember where I found it though

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  25. @Svevlad

    Maybe it’s the long-awaited simian flu, which increases intelligence in apes, but kills humans.

  26. @Svevlad

    It could just be that, after having been ill for several days, people just want to make up for lost social contact time.

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
  27. @reiner Tor

    Noo, don’t go making sense now, this is a “HBD human evolution” blog!

  28. LondonBob says:
    @songbird

    Pigeon is nice enough but duck, chicken are much tastier hence why we eat those. I think I had the pigeon with walnuts and a red wine sauce, my uncle had to purchase it from somewhere like Fortnum & Mason, speciality item.

    • Replies: @songbird
  29. @AnonFromTN

    Coronaviruses cause a lot of things, from mild common cold to a lot worse afflictions, including triggering a severe pneumonia.

    Yes, but they are estimated to cause roughly one-fifth of all “common” colds, so their virulence is the worrying thing here. Next up: The killer Rhinovirus.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  30. utu says:

    About our relationship with animals.

  31. 15 out of the 17 deceased are above the age of 60.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  32. @The Alarmist

    Yea, most coronaviruses are smart parasites: only dumb parasites kill the host.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  33. Nodwink says:

    nunna nunna nunna nunna
    nunna nunna nunna nunna
    BAT SOUP!

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  34. songbird says:
    @LondonBob

    That’s interesting how it almost seems to have an upperclass connotation. I wonder if that is a more a recent thing – something to do with traditional food – or if it represents some old legacy, like association with the gentry, and if so what explains it.

    I suppose that it wasn’t even that common to eat chicken at one time. And pigeons might possibly be more feed-efficient.

    Many years ago, when I was visiting Dublin, I remember seeing a little boy that had a pigeon on a string. I had presumed that he had caught it somehow that day, and that it was something easy to do for someone who knew the trick.

    But perhaps it is a mistake to think like that, going back in time. The bold pigeons that one often encounters in cities today may have had a more cautious streak in much of Europe in the 1800s. And it is doubtful that they would have been fed scraps as readily as now, so there may not have been very many.

    • Replies: @TelfoedJohn
  35. Rahan says:

    China held its peace after SARS, but after this one… it’s high time they flex some muscle by releasing an infection designed to mainly target Ashkenazis in the West.

    In the 20th century the Russians had to throw everything into nukes and ballistic missiles, to show that no, don’t fuck with us. Now the Chinese have to do the same with bio-tech, to make sure there’s no third attack.

  36. songbird says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Looks like there would be leftovers to put in the fridge. It is amazing what selective breeding can do.

  37. @songbird

    Among British natives, the upper and lower ends of the class system tend to keep their food traditions longer, while the middle are striving to be sophisticated and international.

    One restaurant I’ve never seen is a Gypsy restaurant. Perhaps they have them in Eastern Europe? What would be on the menu? Hedgehog stew? Might rival the Chinese for variety.

    • Replies: @Chet Bradley
  38. @AnonFromTN

    That’s literally just copied from wikipedia?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  39. @Mitleser

    8 – Poultry, Pork, Cattle, Rabbit, Pheasant, Deer, Duck, Boar

  40. Looks like this virus originated in bats, and then got into snakes and mutated there to its present form that can infect humans (https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/chinese-coronavirus-snake-market-23012020/).

  41. @AltSerrice

    About 80%. Wiki is usually true when it comes to politically neutral subjects, and 100% lies in everything with political/social/historic implications.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    , @Hail
    , @silviosilver
  42. LondonBob says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Seems highly infectious, but only kills those already weakened. I think this will a big one.

  43. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    100%, wow? Lucky for the Chinese that their government has set-up firewalls to shield its citizenry from this sort of “Zionist-Atlantacist” claptrap. A few years back, it was written that Russia was to also set-up similar “Big-Brother” censorship zones within its internet access. I haven’t heard much about how this “truth” project is coming along?…

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  44. Mr. Hack says:
    @Korenchkin

    Porche is optional I presume, for the ad mentions a bus trip that sounds mandatory? Thanks for the info, I’ve already circled the dates on my calendar. Don’t think that I’ll run into any of the Chinese nomenklatura there? 🙂

  45. @Mr. Hack

    Name me one Wiki article with political implications that is less than 100% lies. FYI, I count the truth twisted beyond recognition as a lie. In case you prefer to count it separately, on average Wiki articles with political/social/historic implications are 80% blatant lies and 20% truth twisted beyond recognition.

    Unlike China, that can keep a few million censors without making a dent in its workforce, Russia cannot censor the Internet: too few people. To the best of my knowledge Russia is planning to create its own information sites. I think this effort will be partially hampered by Cyrillic alphabet and insufficient number of people who can write good English. Then again, maybe not: at the moment in terms of content on the Internet, Russian is second to English (i.e., ahead of German, French, Spanish, Chinese, etc.). Considering that in all those languages (except German, maybe) the number of native speakers is much greater, this is no mean fit.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  46. Hail says: • Website
    @AnonFromTN

    Wiki is usually true when it comes to politically neutral subjects

    I’d add that both the concepts “politically neutral” and “true” (as pertaining to an overall info-portrait of a person, group, idea, event, or anything else) can be ambiguous.

    On ‘True’: Much of the info on wikipedia is incomplete, irrelevant, and/or gossip-mill-tier content, but which might still pass the ‘True’ bar, in that there are no overt falsehoods.

    Even if no actual overtly ‘false’ things are in an article in most cases, the content that survives, from whoever is writing/policing the article, ends up not very good overall. Important things get omitted (generally due to laziness) and/or non-important things getting pumped up (note the way ‘Criticisms’ or ‘Controversies’ sections tend to be).

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  47. songbird says:
    @reiner Tor

    I’ve never eaten wild boar and so can’t comment on the taste, but I think it was pretty superfluous for whoever came up with the chart to count it twice – that is to say, wild pig and domesticated.

    Seems to me that it is actually the second one that is much more dangerous, as regards zoonoses. Domesticated pigs live in close proximity to other farm animals like chickens and also people, whereas wild ones don’t.

    Of course, there’s been a strong desire to genetically engineer pigs so that their organs will be easily transplantable to humans. I guess that would open up new territory in terms of the danger of crossover.

  48. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    So, you consider having several million censors busy at work is a good thing?

    Although a bit dated, here’ an impressive article about Putin’s Russia including a copious amount of information substantiating it subject matter. Can you pinpoint 3-4 blatant lies within that you’d care to share with us (remember your claim is 80% blatant lies).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinism

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  49. @Hail

    You are right, everything we say or write is ambiguous, except maybe mathematical equations.

    Lying by omission is still lying, but I mostly meant blatant lies (what you politely called “overt falsehoods”). Wiki, like State Department discourse and “news” in Western MSM is chock-full of “comrade Ogilvy”-style stories. “Chemical attack” in Syrian Douma, or tales of Russia bombing more hospitals in Aleppo than there are in the whole world are fairly recent examples.

  50. @Mr. Hack

    Easy. Lie in the first line: financial power is in the hands of oligarchs, not “siloviks”.
    Next lie (in lines 4-5): KGB graduates did not take over most economic assets, mega-thieves (oligarchs) hold them, just like in the US.
    Lie #3 (line 5): democratic freedoms are more restricted in the US (the voting has become a meaningless ritual) than in modern Russia under Putin. As to human rights, even if we forget about mass murder committed by the US in many other countries, the US has by far higher rate of incarceration than Russia.

    It keeps going in the same vein throughout. Even section titles are lies: “single-party bureaucratic state” – Russia has a number of political parties, four of which are represented in parliament. For comparison, in the US Congress only two parties are represented (even if we pretend that Dems and Reps are actual parties, rather than two puppets controlled by the same puppet-master); “state gangsterism” – the best example I know was perpetrated by the US very recently – assassination of Soleimani. Sending Tomahawks into Syria under false pretenses was another recent example. And so on.

    On the plus side: Putin’s name was spelled correctly.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  51. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    It seems that around 2004, the old oligarchs melded into a new class of siloviki more beholden to the government than to any shareholders:

    This new breed was the “silovarch” — half siloviki, half oligarch. Silovarchs constitute a highly elite
    class since they are within the corporate boardrooms of Russia but have the Kremlin’s support and
    resources of the siloviki (the federal intelligence apparatus, state prosecutors and judiciaries, even the armed forces) to protect themselves and their assets and to rid themselves of pesky rivals. With the nation’s leader a former KGB operative, such tactics defined the government and eventually the rest of the country, although the system remained vertically stacked under Putin alone. The silovarch class grew very quickly during this period as traditional oligarchs either misstepped or
    discovered there were ambitious men in the government who wanted their firms. Government
    tentacles extended into energy, metals and mining, diamonds, defense, aviation, banking, automotive, shipping, retail, agriculture and telecommunications. Today, Kremlinologists estimate that 78 percent of Russia’s government, business and social leadership is currently linked to the Federal Security Service, successor agency to the Soviet-era KGB

    https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/attach/144/144365_RussianoligarchPDF.pdf

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  52. @Mr. Hack

    Now, here is the list of the 100 richest thieves on Earth:
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/8-russians-named-among-worlds-100-richest-billionaires-forbes-a64714

    It contains 8 Russian oligarchs. Now, tell us which of these 8 are “siloviki” or are in any way associated with them.

    Also, according to Forbes, Russia has 98 $ billionaires (among 2,153 in the world). How many of those are “siloviki” or associated with them?

    The answers to these questions will easily debunk your assertions.

    Personally, I’d prefer the state to take their loot away, but this is unlikely to happen. Putin kicked out some of the least loyal ones (Berezovsky, Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky), but even in their case he did not make any moves to take from them what they stole. A pity.

    The text you posted is yet another proof that Wiki lies in everything, referencing fellow liars who call themselves Kremlinologists (without naming them, so we don’t even know whether they exist).

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  53. @songbird

    I don’t know Chinese eating habits well enough to say whether they really eat stranger stuff on the average, or whether it is simply that the large population means that there are more eccentrics. But it is interesting to think about: suppose we assumed Chinese really did eat everything that moved….

    Takes me back to my days in SERE: You put the thump on it, and muck it on down. Protein is protein.

  54. @Mitleser

    18 … and a few not shown; don’t know if that is good or bad.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  55. @The Alarmist

    18 … and a few not shown; don’t know if that is good or bad.

    That’s simply irrelevant.

  56. @songbird

    I don’t know Chinese eating habits well enough to say whether they really eat stranger stuff on the average, or whether it is simply that the large population means that there are more eccentrics.

    It’s neither. First of all China is a huge country and the regional diets vary greatly. Like is true around the world, including Europe and the US, the traditionally poorer sections of China had to supplement their diet with non-livestock animals in order to get their protein.

    An example from the old TV comedy The Beverly Hillbillies caricaturing poor US southerners diet follows.

    Mr Drysdale: What are you cooking Granny?
    Granny: Snyder Swamp Stew
    Mr. Drysdale: Why is it called Snyder Swamp Stew?
    Granny: Because it’s got all the critters from Snyder Swamp in it.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, Mitleser
  57. @TelfoedJohn

    One restaurant I’ve never seen is a Gypsy restaurant. Perhaps they have them in Eastern Europe?

    Nah, running a restaurant would require real work. No way.

    • LOL: Daniel.I
  58. @Nodwink

    Bats are lethal. A large proportion of new zoonoses spread through bats.

  59. Mr. Hack says:
    @AnonFromTN

    First of all, the text was not reprinted from Wiki, but from a paper put out by Stratfor. Also, I’m not sure about Berezovsky or Gusinsky, but Khodorovsky did loose all of his energy holdings within Russia. He spent a long time in prison for his “crimes” and Berezovsky, according to many paid with his life for crossing Putin.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  60. @Mr. Hack

    Khodorkovsky managed to move a lot of his loot to the welcoming West. That’s why he is still rich today. As to his crimes, they were quite real, but he was not even tried for all of them. His security chief was convicted for the assassination of the mayor of Nefteyugansk Petukhov in 1998, but Khodorkovsky, who ordered this hit as his birthday present, was not even tried for it.

    As to Berezovsky, judging by how quickly Brits ruled his death suicide (which it obviously wasn’t), MI6 dealt with him, not Putin. If there was any, even highly questionable, way to blame Putin for it, the stink from the Brits would be intolerable.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  61. utu says:

    China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan – and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could ‘escape’ the facility that’s become key in fighting the outbreak

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7922379/Chinas-lab-studying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html

    Like Lyme disease from the lab on the Plum Island?

  62. @AnonFromTN

    In citizen K, Khordokovsky claims to have moved $500m cash out of Russia and added another $100m trapped in Switzerland after release. He claims that funding Russian opposition movements is no strain on his cash flow.

  63. @AnonFromTN

    and 100% lies in everything with political/social/historic implications.

    So you’re into holocaust rev now huh?

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  64. @Anatoly Karlin

    Troll: Blinky Bill

    On a scale of 1-10, how degenerate would one have to be to eat this?

    I’d say 10.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
    , @Blinky Bill
  65. @silviosilver

    Wiki pages about WWII are just as lying as everything else there concerning politics/society/history. My difference with the likes of you is not about WWII articles, but about the rest. Wiki keeps only State Department approved lies, everything else gets censored out. Welcome to 1984.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  66. @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s weird. Lambs are pretty cute too, but we still eat them. I had a pet lamb for a little while as a kid. My uncle slaughtered it for some saint’s day feast. I was a bit upset, but hardly traumatized. My feeling was like, well it’s just part of life.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  67. @AnonFromTN

    Sigh.

    The point is, you nut, that whenever the topic comes up you’re one of the first to rush to the defense of the established holocaust narrative. Your own words on this thread, taken literally, would indicate you find that narrative doubtful — indeed a “100% lie.”

    Would it really kill you to choose your words a tad more carefully?

  68. Znzn says:

    Anon from TN, what is the probability that the virus will mutate into something deadlier?

  69. @AnonFromTN

    only dumb parasites kill the host

    Viruses are neither smart nor dumb (having no brains, in terms of intelligence they are literally as dumb as a rock, if you take it too literally), but they are usually indifferent to the fate of the host, as long as the host’s death doesn’t interfere with their transmission. If a virus is defeated by the immune system (like with most common colds), and cannot infect any more people, then from the virus’ point of view killing the host is not any worse than the host “healing” (i.e. eradicating the virus from its own system).

    There is the famous case of the myxoma virus, which was deliberately spread in Australia by the government to control the rabbit population. It’s been argued that after a while it became milder. Well, only to an extent (somewhere I read 20% mortality rate at its lowest, though the below article has higher numbers, which is not so trivial from the rabbits’ point of view), and recently it’s become deadlier still.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/rabbit-virus-arms-race/536796/

    So would you argue that the myxoma virus is dumb? I would argue that it’s smart enough to survive, and it doesn’t need to be keep all of its hosts alive, so it just kills a lot of them.

    As far as I know, there are lots of infectious diseases with very high mortality rates, even after a very long time. I’ve seen arguments that Yersinia pestis has a high mortality rate even in its natural reservoir among marmots or whatever animal it normally infects.

  70. @Anatoly Karlin

    In addition to been a ethical and moral person I thought you also took pride in been rational and analytical. How many of the following people do you to think have consumed wolf pup, bat soup, species x.

    If you genuinely don’t know I would suggest the number is 0 and of the many who have already contracted the disease or will over the coming weeks only a miniscule percentage will have participated in what you call degenerate acts.

    Perhaps Wuhan deserves its plague but civilized peoples do not.

    I gave you a Troll not for your first sentence but for your second one. Do you really believe thousands of wholly innocent Wuhanese who potentially might be infected and die, deserve their fate due to some Cosmic collective punishment ?

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Adûnâi
  71. @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    Perhaps the whole world deserves to be overcome with this plague ? How many civilized people will have divine protection ?

  72. Adûnâi says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Quite anecdotal, but I watched a few funny animal compilations on YouTube a week ago, and a lot of pets were from China. Is it correct to say the Chinese are more cruel than Westerners? Maybe it’s only the older generation? After all, I also saw a lesbian having an AMA on Reddit, she lived in inner China.

    If anyone deserves extermination, it’s Taiwan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Asia

    https://kotaku.com/cosplaying-politician-elected-in-taiwan-1840984735/

    (On the one hand, César Tort hates animal killers. But on the other, I hate sodomites. The world is so complicated…)

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