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Corona & the Cost of Doing Nothing
Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy - It's Just Like the Flu, Brah!
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There is a three in a million chance that a Boeing 737 MAX won’t arrive at its destination in one piece. At the end of the day, this isn’t that big of a deal – as late as the 1980s, this was the average for the commercial airline industry, and risks were twice as high in 1970. But people don’t tolerate such numbers such risks these days, as the value attached to human life has gone up. As a result, this model has been grounded across the world, with attendant consequences for Boeing’s bottom line.

But while it may not be that big of a deal, it is still probably not a great idea to take 500 flights in a Boeing 737 MAX within a year if one can possibly help it. Why 500 Boeing 737 MAX flights? Because even though it is a disease that overwhelmingly affects the elderly, that happens to be the equivalent risk of dying from COVID-19 for people in their 30s. Moreover, when you board a plane, you are only risking your own life. People with a cavalier “iT’S JuSt lIkE ThE FlU” are presumably more likely to spread it to elderly people, for whom a brush with COVID-19 is equivalent to a round of Russian roulette (mortality is ~1/6 for over 80 year olds). Moreover, it would even be reasonable to pay money to avoid such risks, even if it involves some inconveniences.

For this novel coronavirus threatens to fundamentally degrade the global demographics of human mortality, the effects of which may last years or decades.

This graph shows q(x), or the probability of dying at any age “x”. It is calculated by taking a hypothetical cohort, usually fixed at 100,000 at the age of 0, and dividing the number of deaths by the number of survivors by age group.

The green line represents the probability of dying in the US as of 2017.

The other lines represent the effects of various epidemic shocks: An approximate doubling in severity of the average flu season (yellow); a 10% COVID-19 infection rate (orange); and a 70% COVID-19 infection rate (red).

These figures were obtained by taking the percentage chances of dying from the flu/COVID-19 and adding them to the q(x) percentages for the US in 2017 at the mortality.org database.

The mortality stats for the flu were taken from the CDC, as reported in Business Insider. They also helpfully compare the age-specific death rates to COVID-19 mortality, as derived from an investigation earlier this month by Russell et al. based on numbers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where everybody was tested). The extrapolated total CFR (case fatality rate) was pegged at 1.1%, but note that this applied to situation where quality healthcare was readily available (ventilators, IV drops, antibiotics, etc.). In situations where the epidemic overwhelms the healthcare system, things are going to be much worse.

Note from the outset the near insignificance of flu as a cause of mortality; under 65’s are basically two orders of magnitude as likely to die from COVID-19 as from the flu. In other words, for the younger generations, “the flu” is just 2-3x Boeing 737 MAX flights per year, as opposed to 500x for COVID-19. While the absolute numbers for the elderly are horrific, the disparity between flu and COVID-19 mortality for them is actually considerably less – just about a single order of magnitude – though even so, that’s still the difference between a ride on the Space Shuttle (flu) versus a round of Russian roulette (COVID-19). I’d rather take the Space Shuttle, thank you.

In another study by Riou et al. 2020 analyzing data from Wuhan, a total CFR of 1.6% was estimated “among all infections”, with a larger sample allowing for more precise figures for each age group (see above). As such, I will be using the numbers from this study to adjust q(x) in the different COVID-19 scenarios. Apart from that, the Wuhan scenario is likely to be more typical than the Diamond Princess scenario, if we are talking about large-scale outbreaks that partially overwhelm the capacity of healthcare cities.

There isn’t much evidence that we can hope for substantially lower mortality rates, even in developed OECD countries; contra Western stereotypes, medical care in Wuhan seems to have been highly sophisticated, with dozens of people being ventilated in the average hospital, and complex procedures such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (“removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells”) through ECMO machines being available in cases where ventilation didn’t work. Consequently, it can’t be excluded that mortality in most of the rest of the world – even in the OECD – may well end up higher than in China. For instance, England only has 28 and the US has 250 of these ECMO machines, whereas even provincial hospitals in China have been reported to have 5 of them each.

The healthcare system in Lombardy – one of the most developed regions in the world – is already on the cusp of collapse. Unless there are draconian quarantines implemented right about now, most of the rest of Western Europe and the US seem set to join it in its misery in another 10 days to two weeks. Cost-cutting “optimization” in healthcare has drastically reduced the number of hospital beds per capita throughout the West in the past two decades. At this point, I would certainly not wager on “the West” mounting a better or more competent response to COVID-19 than the Chinese.

Another cardinal difference between “the flu” and COVID-19 is that the latter is far more contagious. The standard measure of how many other people each person with a given disease infects in turn, r0, seems to be ~4 under “normal” conditions, versus just 1.3 for the flu. Moreover, as a novel coronavirus, people do not have any preexisting immunity to COVID-19 that might mitigate its virulence, and it has far greater contagiousness. Consequently, professional epidemiologists have predicted that as much as 70% of the world population may eventually become infected with COVID-19, a number has been repeated by Angela Merkel and the British government in recent days. As such, I will be modeling a 70% COVID-19 infection rate – which presupposes millions of deaths – as a “worst case” scenario.

One final “blackpill” about COVID-19 is that, should we fail to control it, many epidemiologists expect it to become a new seasonal disease – that is, a fifth endemic coronavirus, just like the common cold. But far deadlier. The flu infects about a tenth of the population every year. What would be the impact if COVID-19 was to reach similar intensities?

This graph shows l(x), or the number of survivors at any age “x”. It can be calculated by recursively applying the aforementioned q(x) to the initial, hypothetical cohort of 100,000 newborns.

As before, we can see that even doubling the flu season – adding mortality from an average flu season to the existing probability of dying – barely nudges the curve.

However, even a 10% COVID-19 infection rate moves the curve visibly left, and the change is extremely traumatic once you get to 70% infection rates – the sort of numbers that multiple European governments are now bandying about.

This graph shows the changes in life expectancy at different ages. It is calculated from two values derived from the above data: The total number of person-years lived by any particular cohort, or T(x), divided by the number of survivors, or l(x), in that cohort. T(x) is the sum total of person-years, or L(x), lived by any particular cohort up until all its members have died. That, in turn, is given by the following formula: L(x) = l(x+1)*d(x)*a(x), where l(x+1) refers to the quantity of that cohort’s survivors in the next year, d(x) refers to the number of deaths during that interval (or, in other words, l(x+1) – l(x) ), and a(x) is a constant that is usually equal to 0.5 (except in the very first and the very last year of life).

Here is a summary of the results:

  • US life expectancy at birth was 78.86 years in 2017 (via mortality.org). There is a minor discrepancy with the official CDC figure of 78.6 years.
  • Modeling a typical flu epidemic “on top” of that (so, in practice, a ~doubling of the flu season severity) would reduce US life expectancy to 78.63 years, translating to a reduction of ~0.25 years (three months).
  • Modeling a 10% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates – the sort of numbers we may expect should it become endemic – reduces US life expectancy to 76.15 years , translating to a reduction of ~2.5 years.
  • Modeling a 70% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates reduces US life expectancy to 66.79 years, translating to a reduction of a cool ~12 years.

Now this is not the end of the world, as I make sure to emphasize by including the historical mortality profiles for Russia in 1994 and Sweden in 1751 across all three of these graphs.

The year 1994 marked the single worst time for Russian mortality in its post-1956 history, when rampant alcohol abuse, violence, and the despair of the 1990s reduced life expectancy to a local minimum at 63.93 years; during that time, middle-aged male mortality was equivalent to that of Imperial Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa. This is probably the worst mortality profile ever observed in a major industrialized nation outside of wartime.

Mortality rates in the preindustrial world – Sweden has the earliest comprehensive records dating back to 1751 – jumped wildly year to year, depending on the state of the harvest and the virulence of the bugs going around in that particular year. The biggest difference relative to industrialized societies, though, even ones as collapsed as Russia in the 1990s, is that deaths during infancy and childhood were mundane, not freak occurrences. Hence why life expectancy actually goes up as children live through (survive) their infanthood.

As we can see, in terms of mortality, a serious COVID-19 epidemic should be broadly equivalent to living in 1990’s Russia – and for people under the age of 50, it would be notably safer than living in a preindustrial society, such as 18th century Sweden. It will be a shock relative to current expectations colored by more than a century of “Pinkerian” progress in safety and survivability, but there were people who lived their entire lives under similar or worse mortality profiles, and that didn’t prevent many of them from finding joy and meaning in them.

However, even though the pandemic “shock” will pass, if the epidemiologists are correct and COVID-19 becomes an endemic, seasonal disease, then we may permanently lose the equivalent of about 25 years worth of progress in raising life expectancy (American life expectancy was last below 76.15 years in 1996). In this scenario, the graph of future US life expectancy may look like something above, dipping sharply this year and stabilizing at a new, lower normal in subsequent years.

In the long-term, there may be even more years lost – perhaps 3 years – in many West European countries, and perhaps in developed East Asia as well, should this pandemic veer out of control and make it impossible for them to preserve their current achievements at checking COVID-19 (I assume that even disciplined East Asian societies cannot maintain Corona-suppressing “social distancing” behaviors indefinitely). That is because, thanks mainly to America’s opiates epidemic, the West European countries now have substantially better mortality profiles than the US, so the extra “shock” of COVID-19 will depress their life expectancy to a relatively greater extent. Though, curiously enough, most of these same countries will “lose” fewer years of progress relative to the US, since American life expectancy has basically stood still for the past decade due to the opioids epidemic.

Meanwhile, industrialized countries with worse mortality profiles, such as Russia, will not actually see as big of a drop in life expectancy as the US; as of 2014, the last year for which I can find life tables for Russia, a 10% COVID-19 infection scenario translates to a 1.7 year fall in Russian life expectancy (US: 2.5 years), and a 70% infection scenario translates into a drop of 8 years in life expectancy (US: 12 years). However, due to strong gains in Russian life expectancy since 2014 – it has risen from 70.9 years in 2014 to 73.4 years in 2019 – the effects of COVID-19 will actually now be stronger (if still not as strong as in the US).

(Reminder: This is all assuming that both infection rates and the age-specific mortality rates from COVID-19 are the same across these countries – this will almost certainly not be the case due to local specifics).

Moreover, there will be multiple other factors that will either ameliorate or depress the above estimates:

  • COVID-19 is going to kill off the frailest people in this current wave, in which up to 70% of people may be infected; but this will soften its long-term impact, since you can only die once.
  • In subsequent years, when ~10% annual infection rates may become the new norm, healthcare systems will adjust and everybody should receive adequate care, lowering CFR from the ~4% currently observed when healthcare systems are overwhelmed, to the 0.5%-1.0% rates seen in South Korea and Chinese provinces outside Hubei, which have managed to keep on top of cases.
  • Conversely, people who are intubated now may suffer permanent, long-term insults on their health, making them more vulnerable to subsequent COVID-19 infections in future years.
  • Needless to say, there may well be changes in COVID-19’s contagiousness and virulence in the future.

I am not even going to attempt to model any of this. But the bottom line stands. This virus has the capability to deal a traumatic shock to the world’s population, especially to the older societies of the Global North. In the longer term, it may also permanently depress global life expectancy by about 2 years, robbing millions of future people of their planned retirements and time with their grandchildren.

There are political factions that cynically, and unironically, pray for Corona-chan to do her magic. The Chapo Trap House folks bask in the idea of COVID-19 killing off Drumpf-voting boomers who are keeping them from electing Bernie, instituting M4A, and rescuing the planet, while elements of the Alt Right anticipate the West rediscovering its youthful vigor in the wake of the “boomerpox”. But I would caution both factions against premature Schadenfreude – political trends rarely work out the way anyone expects them to. They may get more than they bargained for.

OK, summing up: We should really, really try to avoid COVID-19 veering out of control and becoming endemic.

China has demonstrated that Corona-chan can be contained; its r0 has plummeted by an order of magnitude from 4 to just 0.32, even if had to bring its economy to a near standstill to do it. As Steve Sailer notes, China hasn’t merely “flattened the curve”. It has crushed it. This means that its success should be replicable, at least in First World nations with epidemics on the scale of peak Hubei, as in Italy.

Even more encouragingly, the nations of East Asia – Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, even middle-income Thailand – have all managed to bring COVID-19 under control at its earliest stages without resorting to China’s drastic measures. As Tomas Pueyo explains, they did this by carefully filtering infectees’ contacts at the earliest opportunity and putting them under quarantine. The main reason that South Korea failed is because its “Patient 31” happened to be a religious “super-spreader”, yet even so, even there, the epidemic is currently under control.

But all their efforts would be in vain if just a few (or even one) defeatist, incompetent, or plain stupidly-run countries decline to take the necessary steps, and thereby cut two years off global life expectancy into the indefinite future.

This stupidity and incompetence takes different forms. In Western Europe, it is the Left’s fundamentalist commitment to open borders, accompanied by bizarre claims that quarantines do not work. In the US, it is the Right’s fundamentalist commitment to free markets, as exemplified by $5,000 copays for coronavirus tests, lack of sick leave, and Trump’s “iT’S JuSt lIkE ThE FlU” mantras to appease Mammon. Meanwhile, in what is perhaps the most “powerful” move of them all, the United Kingdom has set up a cyber-unit to combat “Russian” Corona-chan shitposters while basically admitting that it has no interest in combating, like, the actual coronavirus. Hopefully the British boomers croaking in their deathbeds in another two months’ time will be understanding of HMG’s priorities.

One is almost tempted to wish a pox on all their houses.

Anyhow, while I still hope for the best, I do not expect it.

EDIT March 13: Thread on /r/coronavirus: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fhy247/coronavirus_could_cause_a_25_year_drop_in_us_life/

 
• Category: Economics, Science • Tags: Corona, Coronavirus, Demograhics, Disease, Mortality 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I loook forward to a comprehensive precise reply to Pft's Comment #29.

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon? AND can you calculate the consequences of different rates of flu vaccination in different countries? I suspect that many of those that die of flu in the US only die because of the cost of vaccination.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @another anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Really No Shit
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Pessimistic as ever on the West while cheerleading for the "East"; what else is new, AK?

    , @Mark12345
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The whole thing is BS. This is an engineered crisis. https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-causes-effects-real-danger-agenda-id2020/5706153 https://www.mintpressnews.com/us-intelligence-unsettling-role-classified-9-11-like-coronavirus-response/265687/ https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/virus-fearmongerers-prevail/ https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/03/12/fake-news-starts-in-washington-perception-management-and-influence-operations-manipulate-public-opinion/

    , @Jim Christian
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Anatoly! You've been gone too long, my friend. A far different world than when last you published!

    So, I'm down in Tampa, a family member is tied up in ICU for two weeks, they're swabbing the foreheads of visitors, checking eyeballs for jaundice and temperature before allowing entry to the hospital.

    How's every little thing in your world? When you disappear, we worry. You cannot possibly be out of material? I mean, this shit here writes itself! Be well, young man.

  2. Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren’t accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @LondonBob

    It's probably quite dangerous to a small amount of children. It's to be expected that a small proportion will have immune systems out of wack, or other special susceptibilities, likely due to mutations.

    Replies: @awry

    , @Dmitry
    @LondonBob


    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over
     
    Diamond Princess data does not look very good though. If 5,6% of those infected are dead or still in critical condition, after all these weeks later.

    Hopefully it's just a result of very much older ages of people in the boat, otherwise this will be bad.

    https://i.imgur.com/WUlwSni.jpg


    deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks.
     
    Although there is still some controversy about whether people can be re-infected by COVID-19.

    There is also a problem of preliminary evidences that people are seeming to carry the virus (and possibly still be infectious in some way) after recovering, at least for the very short amount of time (days later) that has been measured.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

    , @eugyppius
    @LondonBob

    Mortality is probably a korean .5% in optimal conditions where every critical case can be put on a respirator. When the system is overwhelmed mortality looks like 3-6%. Of course the stress is on looks like, overwhelmed health systems are not testing everyone. That means you have in effect a different pandemic, where some portion of the population can be modeled as having immunity (really they are/were susceptible but never develop serious symptoms and their infections never show up in stats), but in exchange higher mortality.

    , @Ludwig
    @LondonBob

    This is ultimately an impractical idea. If you thought the resistance to vaccines to children was an issue (even though for argument sakes 1 in 100,000 comes down with some disease/autism due to the antibiotics messing up the a kid’s biome which in rare cases has been found to be linked to autism), this is going to encounter massive resistance.

    Firstly scientists are not sure why kids are not as impacted as adults so far. There are various theories as to why but as a parent I won’t offer my child to purposely be infected just on a theory. Even flu vaccines have side effects to kids: let alone an unknown coronavirus. It is in some sense as bad as saying let the elderly die so that hospitals can focus on more “productive” members of society. At the least various cultures will have to decide what their value systems are. (I am sure Sparta would have had no problem containing this. Kill any who look like they have it.)

    What China did - locking down at different levels based on severity, so Wuhan was locked down at the neighborhood level (over 9000), at the level of the city and then the province and also focused on other clusters - did and can work. Outside Hubei - 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve. That’s what needs to be done.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @LondonBob

    , @Skeptikal
    @LondonBob

    I am not color-blind and I can't follow the graphs.
    '
    I don't see any green lines.

    And it is impossible to distinguish the dark gray from the black.

    There are so many colors to choose from in the real world.

    What is the problem? No colors in your software?

  3. And UK was supposed to be one of the states with the best preparations for such a situation…

    https://twitter.com/LankanSyndi/status/1237904032829550592

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Mitleser

    There are rumors of cases in NK. I wouldn't say that the average rumor about NK is very trustworthy, but I do know that the northern border has a fair amount of black market activity.

    I don't buy the theories about Iran being intentionally infected, but if I allowed myself to indulge in one conspiracy theory - I'll bet there are a lot of people who would rather see NK infected, than see it have no cases whatsoever and be a counterexample to globalism.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  4. @LondonBob
    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren't accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry, @eugyppius, @Ludwig, @Skeptikal

    It’s probably quite dangerous to a small amount of children. It’s to be expected that a small proportion will have immune systems out of wack, or other special susceptibilities, likely due to mutations.

    • Replies: @awry
    @songbird

    No children died of it yet. The problem is that it's not proven that people acquire immunity to it, unfortunately. There were reported cases of reinfection, including a relatively young guy dying from the second infection after recovering from the first in Wuhan. For example people are not immune to the common cold, they can catch it every year.

    Replies: @Paul.Martin

  5. Because even though it is a disease that overwhelmingly affects the elderly, that happens to be the equivalent risk of contracting COVID-19 for people in their 30s.

    Minor correction on this excellent post, I think that you mean the risk of dying as the risk of getting infected is not widely different among adults of different ages. AK: Thanks.

    And beyond the risk of lung scarring that exists even in young people there have been some preliminary studies that Corona-chan leads to testicular problems and possibly infertility.
    As this feisty disease doesn’t like hot weather, it will not infect the high fertility regions in Africa and South Asia, but it could further reduce the TFR in temperate and cold regions.
    On the other side, all that time spent at home without sports and other social distractions could lead to a baby boom, out of sheer boredom.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @SIMPLEPseudonymicHandle

    At least for America, they have an unusual opportunity to benefit from their lack of public transport, and everyone having their own car, and going to the office in the hermetically sealed cabin.

    And then there are important parts of America where in a couple of months, the sun will be powerful, and as air temperature increase the absolute humidity levels become high. The perfect situation might be if you have a Texas ranch, with some kind of bunker. And the UV irradiation from the Texas sun will deactivate viruses on any surfaces that neighbours might touch near your house. When the air temperatures increase, high absolute humidity of Texas air above 25-30°C will reduce distance and time the virus can spread in the air. You will perhaps even safely be able to walk around the neighbourhood without a mask and goggles.

    Replies: @Omegabooks

    , @Donald A Thomson
    @SIMPLEPseudonymicHandle

    Australia has a rapidly growing infected group. Temperatures up to 30 centigrade obviously have no effect. Perhaps when winter arrives we'll be safe. [email protected]

  6. @ cyber-unit to combat “Russian” Corona-chan shitposters

    “First rule in politics: never believe anything until it’s officially denied”.

  7. [MORE]

    Modeling a 10% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates – the sort of numbers we may expect should it become endemic – reduces US life expectancy to 76.15 years , translating to a reduction of ~2.5 years.
    Modeling a 10% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates reduces US life expectancy to 66.79 years, translating to a reduction of a cool ~12 years.

    Did you mean a 70% infection scenario in the second part of your quoted post above?

    AK: Yes, thanks.

  8. @LondonBob
    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren't accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry, @eugyppius, @Ludwig, @Skeptikal

    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over

    Diamond Princess data does not look very good though. If 5,6% of those infected are dead or still in critical condition, after all these weeks later.

    Hopefully it’s just a result of very much older ages of people in the boat, otherwise this will be bad.

    deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks.

    Although there is still some controversy about whether people can be re-infected by COVID-19.

    There is also a problem of preliminary evidences that people are seeming to carry the virus (and possibly still be infectious in some way) after recovering, at least for the very short amount of time (days later) that has been measured.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

  9. [MORE]

    BTW, Anatoly, can you please create a new Open Thread? We don’t have one but we need one!

    Since I’m mentioning a new Open Thread, though, I figure that I might as well ask an Open Thread-related question here:

    In the event that there would have been no Bolshevik Revolution in Russia in 1917, do you expect Akmola/Tsalinograd/Astana/Nur-Sultan to have remained a mid-sized provincial relative backwater up to the present-day–with its population never even actually reaching 500,000 people?

    I’m asking because I want to know if there was any *realistic* way for this city to actually acquire the same level of population, prestige, and glory (a lot of it was, after all, designed by a futuristic-style Japanese architect) that it indeed managed to acquire in real life.

    AK: Yes, I’ll do an Open Thread imminently, but this is OT.

  10. My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I’m in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who’s been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won’t comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania’s Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be “until further notice” and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They’re not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples’ faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Matt Forney

    It's good to hear how Albania shuts down, as it will be vulnerable with its close distance to Italy. In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though - it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel (and perhaps even now it is too late for travel shut down to avoid it, although it can at least slow its arrival).

    So far, South Korea is perhaps the most successful country (in terms of state capacity to respond to epidemic), while Iran has been the least successful.

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/c26/7c9/5a3/c267c95a3c996fed4df91304b2520bf2.png

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/1d2/ce7/365/1d2ce73659a5dc520931782d386df186.png

    Interesting article:
    https://habr.com/ru/post/491974/

    AK: It's a translation of this article, which is linked to in the post: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    Replies: @Matra, @Commentator Mike

    , @Cassandra
    @Matt Forney

    You are not accurate about Greece. There are to this date under a hundred cases and large portions of the country are shut down. My friend works for a major telecom and it has been closed for a solid week. They are doing a fine job of containment and their spread came from tourists who visited Israel and a woman from Milan.

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @BJRN

    , @Agathoklis
    @Matt Forney

    Complete rubbish. Greece has shut down all schools, day care centres and universities. Also, public gatherings are banned.

    , @Dieter Kief
    @Matt Forney

    There seems to be enough of collective thinking energy/ ability left in Albania to handle this crisis in a reasonable way. Greece is (and has been) dominated by an extremely individualistic/ anarchist mindset. State (=the collective) = your personal enemy (beware -robs you of your money with the well know tactic of calling his longing for your posessions "taxes". Avoid these attempts of the state at any cost (these costs are not that high anyway... - this is how we get along, since ages - the constant Greek inner monologue).

    Trump is more on the Taki's Mag / Greece/ Libertarian / individualistic / anarchist side. A form of complexity reduction, which works up to a point - especially as long as collective action does not become a question of life or death.

    ^Bottom line: Eastern European countries have more of the mental resouces left, which allow for collective action.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    @Matt Forney

    Albania is not representative of Eastern Europe. I was in Belgrade last week and no one was taking precautions. People still shaking hands, going to bars, etc. One Serb told me his generation had lived through an actual war and bombardments, a virus wasn’t going to scare them.

    They do see have gotten the message as of yesterday, but far later than should have been the case.

  11. @SIMPLEPseudonymicHandle

    Because even though it is a disease that overwhelmingly affects the elderly, that happens to be the equivalent risk of contracting COVID-19 for people in their 30s.
     
    Minor correction on this excellent post, I think that you mean the risk of dying as the risk of getting infected is not widely different among adults of different ages. AK: Thanks.

    And beyond the risk of lung scarring that exists even in young people there have been some preliminary studies that Corona-chan leads to testicular problems and possibly infertility.
    As this feisty disease doesn't like hot weather, it will not infect the high fertility regions in Africa and South Asia, but it could further reduce the TFR in temperate and cold regions.
    On the other side, all that time spent at home without sports and other social distractions could lead to a baby boom, out of sheer boredom.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Donald A Thomson

    At least for America, they have an unusual opportunity to benefit from their lack of public transport, and everyone having their own car, and going to the office in the hermetically sealed cabin.

    And then there are important parts of America where in a couple of months, the sun will be powerful, and as air temperature increase the absolute humidity levels become high. The perfect situation might be if you have a Texas ranch, with some kind of bunker. And the UV irradiation from the Texas sun will deactivate viruses on any surfaces that neighbours might touch near your house. When the air temperatures increase, high absolute humidity of Texas air above 25-30°C will reduce distance and time the virus can spread in the air. You will perhaps even safely be able to walk around the neighbourhood without a mask and goggles.

    • Replies: @Omegabooks
    @Dmitry

    Not exactly humid most of the time in far west Texas, but even in March it's gotten close to the 80sand getting more rain than usual. And not very populated either. And cleaner.

    And like the anime, AK...

    Replies: @Salmon Jones, @Dmitry

  12. @Mitleser
    And UK was supposed to be one of the states with the best preparations for such a situation...

    https://twitter.com/LankanSyndi/status/1237904032829550592

    Replies: @songbird

    There are rumors of cases in NK. I wouldn’t say that the average rumor about NK is very trustworthy, but I do know that the northern border has a fair amount of black market activity.

    I don’t buy the theories about Iran being intentionally infected, but if I allowed myself to indulge in one conspiracy theory – I’ll bet there are a lot of people who would rather see NK infected, than see it have no cases whatsoever and be a counterexample to globalism.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Have you seen the film World War Z?

    North Korea is the only country that eventually avoids the zombie epidemic (Israel survives an extra week because they build a wall, but that wall collapses and the zombies destroy them), because the North Korea pull everyone's teeth in 24 hours

    I found the video of the scene - it's around 1:45 "Greatest feat of social engineering in history. No teeth, no bite, no great spread"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjr7hZD3DKo

    Replies: @songbird

  13. Was it just yesterday that they declared the Corona virus a global pandemic? I think that they should rename it – a global pan-demonium-demic.

    Everybody is talking about the negative sides of this corona virus outbreak. I would like to focus on one possible positive influence this virus might have.

    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak. With everybody wearing masks, the robbery employees – after conducting their operations in local corner stores, gas stations and even banks – can very successfully mingle with the general population upon exiting from the venues they like to do their business in, and avoid risky situations associated with their profession – such as being caught and/or being shot or subjected to lengthy prison sentences.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @Cyrano



    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak

    In Italy, the Nigerian prostitution racket is bound to be badly fucked (pun intended). What a shame! So much beauty gone to waste! :-)

    https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/08/13/11/italy-sex-work-reuters.jpeg

    Replies: @Truth

    , @Calculator
    @Cyrano

    No kidding, last night I went into the bank and it looked like the place had been taken over by criminals. The customers were "unmasked" except for one Chinese gentleman. You are so busted Dude, I thought, obviously a secret agent sent to spread the virus and destroy our financial system. It turned he was just the owner of the local pizza shop making a deposit ! I also noted another customer hurriedly exiting the bank with a large black bag like Robert DeNiro in the movie HEAT. Given the media and blogger induced paranoia it was probably filled with toilet paper. Anyway, thankfully staff behind the counter and desks were all masked but it was a creepy surreal experience.

  14. @Matt Forney
    My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I'm in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who's been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won't comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania's Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be "until further notice" and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They're not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples' faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Cassandra, @Agathoklis, @Dieter Kief, @Peter Akuleyev

    It’s good to hear how Albania shuts down, as it will be vulnerable with its close distance to Italy. In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though – it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel (and perhaps even now it is too late for travel shut down to avoid it, although it can at least slow its arrival).

    So far, South Korea is perhaps the most successful country (in terms of state capacity to respond to epidemic), while Iran has been the least successful.

    Interesting article:
    https://habr.com/ru/post/491974/

    AK: It’s a translation of this article, which is linked to in the post: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    • Replies: @Matra
    @Dmitry

    In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though – it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel

    This time last month I was looking up flights between northern Italy and Romania and was impressed by just how many there are on a daily basis. Leaving aside tourism there must be a massive Romanian presence from Bologna northwards to justify these flights. I read that in the week or so after the initial cluster of cases in Italy many Romanians flew home so Romania might be the Eastern European country to keep an eye on.

    Matt Forney: Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who’s been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks

    So you're self-quarantined in a hotel or something?

    , @Commentator Mike
    @Dmitry

    Those numbers of tests performed seem ridiculous. Since the symptoms of Corona virus are similar to those of the cold and influenza, everyone who exhibits these symptoms should be tested, as how will we know who is suffering from what.

    On another note, if this virus kills off the elderly in Europe and US, the proportion of immigrants and Muslims in the population will jump, as it is the indigenous whites that are most represented among the aged.

  15. @songbird
    @Mitleser

    There are rumors of cases in NK. I wouldn't say that the average rumor about NK is very trustworthy, but I do know that the northern border has a fair amount of black market activity.

    I don't buy the theories about Iran being intentionally infected, but if I allowed myself to indulge in one conspiracy theory - I'll bet there are a lot of people who would rather see NK infected, than see it have no cases whatsoever and be a counterexample to globalism.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Have you seen the film World War Z?

    North Korea is the only country that eventually avoids the zombie epidemic (Israel survives an extra week because they build a wall, but that wall collapses and the zombies destroy them), because the North Korea pull everyone’s teeth in 24 hours

    I found the video of the scene – it’s around 1:45 “Greatest feat of social engineering in history. No teeth, no bite, no great spread”

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Dmitry

    Yes, I have seen it - funny scene, in a campy way.

    I guess with zombies, you need to suspend disbelief, but I always think things like, but people have such a weak bite - a normal person could put on extra layers of clothing and be pretty safe from teeth penetrating their skin, except for their face.

  16. @Dmitry
    @Matt Forney

    It's good to hear how Albania shuts down, as it will be vulnerable with its close distance to Italy. In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though - it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel (and perhaps even now it is too late for travel shut down to avoid it, although it can at least slow its arrival).

    So far, South Korea is perhaps the most successful country (in terms of state capacity to respond to epidemic), while Iran has been the least successful.

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/c26/7c9/5a3/c267c95a3c996fed4df91304b2520bf2.png

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/1d2/ce7/365/1d2ce73659a5dc520931782d386df186.png

    Interesting article:
    https://habr.com/ru/post/491974/

    AK: It's a translation of this article, which is linked to in the post: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    Replies: @Matra, @Commentator Mike

    In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though – it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel

    This time last month I was looking up flights between northern Italy and Romania and was impressed by just how many there are on a daily basis. Leaving aside tourism there must be a massive Romanian presence from Bologna northwards to justify these flights. I read that in the week or so after the initial cluster of cases in Italy many Romanians flew home so Romania might be the Eastern European country to keep an eye on.

    Matt Forney: Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who’s been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks

    So you’re self-quarantined in a hotel or something?

  17. @Dmitry
    @songbird

    Have you seen the film World War Z?

    North Korea is the only country that eventually avoids the zombie epidemic (Israel survives an extra week because they build a wall, but that wall collapses and the zombies destroy them), because the North Korea pull everyone's teeth in 24 hours

    I found the video of the scene - it's around 1:45 "Greatest feat of social engineering in history. No teeth, no bite, no great spread"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjr7hZD3DKo

    Replies: @songbird

    Yes, I have seen it – funny scene, in a campy way.

    I guess with zombies, you need to suspend disbelief, but I always think things like, but people have such a weak bite – a normal person could put on extra layers of clothing and be pretty safe from teeth penetrating their skin, except for their face.

  18. Excellent work, Anatoly.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  19. For another view, here is a post from another blog:

    A doctor who attended a COVID-related conference in the Billinson medical center in Israel had published some of the key notes, which confirm my opinion that the corona scare is massively exaggerated by many people:

    1)Most infected will only have the symptoms of a common cold (as with 4 other known strains of coronaviruses).
    2)Serious cases – fever.
    3)Fatal cases – mostly elderly above the age of 80 with very weak immune system.
    4)Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
    5)Most infected will self recover and develop higher immunity to the virus.
    6)Transmitted via fluids, not air. So standing in the vicinity of infected is not dangerous, but if they cough while near you it’s best to be tested.
    7)Transmission before symptoms appear is possible but extremely low.
    8)Self testing technique involves holding your breath for 10 seconds and see if you have any difficulties.
    9)A Japanese home remedy is to drink every about 15 minutes so that virus fragments in your throat will slide down to the stomach, where the stomach acids will kill them almost instantly.

    • Troll: Plato's Dream
    • Replies: @Anonymous (n)
    @Carlton Meyer

    Absolute horseshit. Millions of people get infected in Italy during the flu season every ear, yet this does not cause their hospitals to be overwhelmed with critical cases to the point that people are left on their own to asphyxiate for lack of ventilators.

    Corona on the other hand has already submerged Italian ICUs despite there being officially <15,000 cases. Even if the official number of cases is undercounted by an order of magnitude, that's still less than 150,000 cases in the country. We may not know the exact mortality rate of this virus, but we know it has the capability to destroy a modern, relatively robust healthcare system when far less than 1% of the population gets infected. "This is not the flu bro."

    Replies: @utu

    , @Kratoklastes
    @Carlton Meyer


    Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
     
    First sensible thing in this entire thread - although it could be clarified somewhat (e.g., the total number of infections - reported plus unreported - may be far higher than the official number).

    Also, the last sentence gives the reader the possible impression that unreported cases reduce the mortality rate: it reduces the estimate of the mortality rate (I know that's what you meant, but it's a critical distinction).

    .

    Very slight symptoms in the vast vast majority of cases, means that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the vast vast majority of actually-infected individuals would not have sought medical care - and were therefore not identified as a potential starting point for spread, and were therefore a vector for transmission for the entire length of the infectious stage of their (unreported) case.

    This being the case (it's not remotely arguable that it's not the case: the lack of 'serious' symptoms is an established fact)... the current estimates of the mortality rate are vastly vastly overstated.

    .

    And yet with all these unsequestered, asymptomatic-but-infected people swanning about... 1.3 billion Chinamen has generated ~80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    And a lot of those 80,000 diagnoses were not obtained by testing: they were obtained by a "checklist" approach (like AIDS in Africa, and pretty much any diagnosis from a psychocharlatan).

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    The 'whistleblower' made his initial post on 30 Dec - having seen data on a cluster of 7 cases in his hospital and thinking that this was being covered up. Whether he was correct or not is irrelevant: the point is that for there to have been a 'cluster' identified as a novel, viral, respiratory illness must have taken a week or more.

    Given that all 7 were symptomatic, were they the only cases in Wuhan (or in China) at the time? Why would anyone believe that to be the case?

    I seem to recall that the initial cluster were workers at the wet market: is this the only such place in China?

    What of the movements of other workers - including those who never exhibited symptoms? And go outwards from there... the numbers get very big very quickly if people are interacting and most people are asymptomatic.

    Anyhow... January 20th - 3 weeks after Dr Li Wenliang's chat message - China started to impose controls.

    Notionally, Dr Li contracted the dose that killed him from an asymptomatic glaucoma patient (the 80-something woman displayed symptoms after her treatment). This happened in early January.

    So in early January there were people carrying covid19 who were not identifiable as carriers - they were capable of transmitting the pathogen but didn't have a fever. That is unlikely to have been something that just started happening the day before.

    .

    The only way to work out how widespread this thing actually is, would be to systematically test EVERYBODY - not just people who have symptoms of some form of respiratory illness.

    Consider what it means if you only test people who are symptomatic (or you only test on small, relatively confined populations with a high probability of exposure and a high rate of underling comorbidities).

    To take it outside the current hysteria, consider if you only did breast screens for women over 50 with gigantic lumps on their breasts, and then extrapolated the result to the whole population.

    Your guess at the prevalence of breast cancer would be so ridiculously high that nobody would take you seriously.

    And yet that's what is happening with covid19.

    As we know, though: most women don't have breast cancer.

    If the testing protocol focuses on 'at risk' groups, it guarantees two things: over-estimating prevalence, AND missing a very large proportion of people who actually have the condition.

    Sounds counter-intuitive, but that's how the number shake out.

    .

    So it can be taken either way: in large populations, either
    ① fuck-all people ever get infected and the worst-affected few percent die (that's what the Chinese numbers look like; the Iranian numbers likewise); or...
    ② a very large number of people get infected but show no (or weak) symptoms, and fuck-all of them die.

    .

    ② Is Just like 'flu, "brah", and is the correct answer to the question "What is actually happening?";

    If ① was true, it would be a poor basis for global hysteria (although hysterias seldom have or need 'good' bases). This is why we are told the correct answer is

    ③ a very large number get infected and the worst-affected few percent die.

    ③ is being cynically manipulated to get the following tropes into the heads of dimwitted imbeciles...
    • "Listen to the experts"
    • "Do as you're told"
    • "The situation is changing rapidly, so what you're told might change rapidly - but continue to obey" and
    • "We just have to shovel some wealth to our cronies for a while: turns out they're not rich enough yet."

    Replies: @Calculator, @El Dato, @Justvisiting

    , @OscarWildeLoveChild
    @Carlton Meyer

    I've been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate, evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.

    What I don't is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily, many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public transportation. I don't get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as they're saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC, Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.

    Scratching my head.

  20. “It’s all BS folks. BS is the glue that binds this country together.” George Carlin

    • LOL: Cassandra
  21. I’m currently watching Scott Morrison’s press conference on the ABC about Corona-chan and they’re gonna ban all “non-essential” travel and public events. I saw on the chyron that Justin Trudeau’s wife also came down with Corona.

  22. Excellent article Anatoly. This & calling the Coronavirus pandemic on 24 January lets your readers be far ahead of the news.

    • Agree: reiner Tor, Daniel Chieh
    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  23. @Matt Forney
    My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I'm in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who's been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won't comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania's Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be "until further notice" and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They're not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples' faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Cassandra, @Agathoklis, @Dieter Kief, @Peter Akuleyev

    You are not accurate about Greece. There are to this date under a hundred cases and large portions of the country are shut down. My friend works for a major telecom and it has been closed for a solid week. They are doing a fine job of containment and their spread came from tourists who visited Israel and a woman from Milan.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    @Cassandra

    Precisely. The Greeks were actually quite decisive and this is in the face of state-based terrorism, using illegals as a weapon, stemming from Turkey.

    , @BJRN
    @Cassandra

    Do you know who Matt Forney is?

    You should not even have answered.

  24. This stupidity and incompetence takes different forms. In Western Europe, it is the Left’s fundamentalist commitment to open borders, accompanied by bizarre claims that quarantines do not work.

    U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden said as much in a January op-ed. He denounced flight suspensions as “counterproductive.” Presumably, he’d also be against strict quarantine efforts. I believe he also erroneously compared the situation to the previous Ebola outbreak (a blood-borne disease). The world may have to get ready for a lowered life expectancy, because I don’t see this man (who’ll almost certainly be president this time next year) or his party doing anything to restrict movement. CNN is already attacking Trump for what little he has done.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/

    https://defconnews.com/2020/01/27/joe-biden-would-stop-coronavirus-by-flooding-u-s-with-infected-foreigners/

    Meanwhile, the radical left is busy calling people names.

    AOC brands people ‘straight up racist’ as coronavirus outbreak sees diners abandon Asian restaurants

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11150237/aoc-brands-people-straight-up-racist-as-coronavirus-outbreak-sees-diners-abandon-asian-restaurants/

    Samantha Bee has a message for Fox News: “The coronavirus is not an excuse to be racist”

    https://www.salon.com/2020/03/12/samantha-bee-has-a-message-for-fox-news-the-coronavirus-is-not-an-excuse-to-be-racist_partner/

    Aside: It turns out Bee is your typical white leftist sociopath.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/samantha-bees-husband-fights-keep-poor-black-kids-john-nolte

    For what it’s worth, here’s Snopes’s unpersuasive debunking of the above article.

    Their article doesn’t seem persuasive at first glance; maybe I’m missing something — it is late, after all. My opinion: they bury the effect of the Bee family’s opposition (fewer minorities in their children’s school) with ancillary objections raised by other parents in what appears to be a deflection. Regardless of how the motivation is couched, the outcome is clear, and it is appropriate to discuss Bee’s hypocrisy in that regard. They also go out of their way to discredit detractors by unnecessarily nitpicking the wording of one of the articles they supposedly debunked: “Despite the fact that the Slate article was nearly a year old at that point (and the issue has been resolved), web sites presented the story as if Jones were currently fighting the rezoning plan.” What does it matter? Perhaps that is true, but it’s also irrelevant to the larger claim. It looks as though Snopes is padding their response with minutia before getting to their tenuous claim that the original sources were wrong.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/samantha-bees-husband-school/

  25. I guess the key concept is flattening the curve to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.
    Otherwise extreme quarantine measures seem kind of stupid.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @nickels


    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.
     
    If this is indeed the case, the graph is incorrect. Quarantining does work. Wuhan is proof of that.

    Replies: @utu, @nickels

  26. @Dmitry
    @SIMPLEPseudonymicHandle

    At least for America, they have an unusual opportunity to benefit from their lack of public transport, and everyone having their own car, and going to the office in the hermetically sealed cabin.

    And then there are important parts of America where in a couple of months, the sun will be powerful, and as air temperature increase the absolute humidity levels become high. The perfect situation might be if you have a Texas ranch, with some kind of bunker. And the UV irradiation from the Texas sun will deactivate viruses on any surfaces that neighbours might touch near your house. When the air temperatures increase, high absolute humidity of Texas air above 25-30°C will reduce distance and time the virus can spread in the air. You will perhaps even safely be able to walk around the neighbourhood without a mask and goggles.

    Replies: @Omegabooks

    Not exactly humid most of the time in far west Texas, but even in March it’s gotten close to the 80sand getting more rain than usual. And not very populated either. And cleaner.

    And like the anime, AK…

    • Replies: @Salmon Jones
    @Omegabooks

    Rare to see anyone else from far west texas. Big Bend-er here. Weirdly warm for march after a weirdly rainy entire 2019. That and the only parts of Texas to be all that infected have been like 700+ miles from JDC. If my county's getting anything it'll be thanks to our unwashed neighbors to the south of us across the border.

    , @Dmitry
    @Omegabooks

    The feature which will decrease aerial distance and time spread of virus in waterdroplets, is high absolute humidity levels (not high relative humidity levels). High absolute humidity levels require high air temperatures.

    Places like Houston of Texas is just South of the latitudes where we have seen community spread of COVID-19, so far. And arrival is more than 1 months later. So we might expect there will be comparatively less aerial spread of COVD-19 in Houston Texas already now, and this will increase in the next months.

    -

    For example, if we read this tentative study:

    "To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C and 47-79% humidity)."

    (My comment - this discussing high relative humidity. Studies show that both high and low relative humidity can support airborne virus spread. However, high absolute humidity is monotonic decreasing airborne virus spread.)

    Here are some cities they identify as vulnerable to COVID-19 epidemics in the next few weeks.

    https://i.imgur.com/Z6d0ELd.jpg


    "Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks."

    "Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. "

    ^ So the vulnerable areas for the epidemic are listed at the end of the study.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    Replies: @Alfred

  27. Another GIGO Karlin’s product. Both R0 and CFR used by Karlin are grossly overestimated. Covid-19 is not like a flu, Spanish flu, but more like regular flue than anything else.

  28. Actually, this is so wrong.

    AK: Comment is plagiarized (h/t utu). Go to the source: https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

    [MORE]

    We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.

    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR, declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male population smoking

    In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.

    I rest my case.

    • Thanks: Dreadilk, Mr. XYZ
    • Replies: @utu
    @Pft

    I agree with the author of the article that you have plagiarized in your comment from:


    COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think
    By JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST (MARCH 04, 2020)

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
     
    Word for word. Anyway, thanks for posting JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST article.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz

    , @Divine Right
    @Pft


    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate.
     
    That may be true, but it says little about what percentage of that group required a hospital stay in the first place. What if it’s higher for Covid-19? In that case, it could have the same mortality but yet produce more deaths; 20% of a larger number is a larger number. Maybe that's why Italy's health system is being overwhelmed.

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.
     
    I think that’s possible.

    In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface.
     
    Maybe this is true. But still, I wonder if there wasn’t a sampling bias here. By the time it began spreading outside of Hubei, at risk populations (elderly) may have begun to take precautions such as social distancing. This would have weighted infection cases to less at risk groups -- those in greater need of travel or those more likely to be in large gatherings, such as the young. The result might be a decline in CFR not necessarily representative of the true value inherent to the pathogen in an open society, especially in one undergoing extreme quarantine measures. Although, that really depends upon to what extent and when quarantine went into effect, etc.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus. … On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent.
     
    This is more of a lower bound. Of the ~696 confirmed cases, only 388 or so have recovered fully. So, roughly half. The upper bound here would be about 7 more deaths for a CFR in that cohort of around 2% (although I don't expect it to go that high). In the general population, it might be less than 1% because a higher proportion of cruise ship passengers are older. Even at 0.5%, that’s still much higher than seasonal influenza.

    Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles
     
    RNA isn’t very stable. That’s one of the reasons why most viruses outside the host aren’t viable for more than a few days at best. Some are hardier, but many are not. The body also has various mechanisms to quickly eliminate it. Your skin, for example, exudes enzymes that will quickly degrade RNA samples. Experiment areas must be carefully disinfected when working with the stuff. I’d assume if your rt-PCR is detecting massive quantities of RNA in a patient sample, then there are probably infectious virions floating around. The technique is very sensitive. True, that’s more a rule of thumb and doesn’t necessarily hold in all circumstances, but it’s a good first guess.
  29. @songbird
    @LondonBob

    It's probably quite dangerous to a small amount of children. It's to be expected that a small proportion will have immune systems out of wack, or other special susceptibilities, likely due to mutations.

    Replies: @awry

    No children died of it yet. The problem is that it’s not proven that people acquire immunity to it, unfortunately. There were reported cases of reinfection, including a relatively young guy dying from the second infection after recovering from the first in Wuhan. For example people are not immune to the common cold, they can catch it every year.

    • Replies: @Paul.Martin
    @awry

    People do NOT catch the SAME cold every year — it's a different cold. You can't catch the same cold twice. As for immunity, one builds it against what one has gone through — and that is an unalterable fact of self-immunization. If one is reinfected, it is with a mutation of the earlier one — but the newer one is already weakened, and so the self-immunity holds. I don't believe any "reports" of mere reinfection.

  30. @Pft
    Actually, this is so wrong.

    AK: Comment is plagiarized (h/t utu). Go to the source: https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html



    We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.

    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR, declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male population smoking

    In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.

    I rest my case.

    Replies: @utu, @Divine Right

    I agree with the author of the article that you have plagiarized in your comment from:

    COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think
    By JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST (MARCH 04, 2020)

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

    Word for word. Anyway, thanks for posting JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST article.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @utu

    I'm unable to find the author's comment a out the plagiarism. Where did you find that?

    Replies: @utu, @Sparkon

  31. You’ve forgotten that more elderly dead translate into lower social security and pension fund expenses and hence more profits for the getting, so certain people in certain countries have a vested interest in actually supporting the spread of Coronavirus. It is also an excellent distraction from other things that they are up to.

    Personally, and I’m a medical professional, I’ll say this: all viruses eventually burn out and reappear in a less virulent form. I do not see how COVID-19 is different from that.

    • Agree: Marshall Lentini
    • Replies: @ken
    @Fiendly Neighbourhood Terrorist

    Exactly. We have to prevent the 75+ crowd from dying from this so they can die of something else within the next couple of years....why?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  32. while elements of the Alt Right anticipate the West rediscovering its youthful vigor in the wake of the “boomerpox”. But I would caution both factions against premature Schadenfreude – political trends rarely work out the way anyone expects them to

    The higher death rates is not the main thing here (although I will not deny in being happy if someone like Biden died from Corona), it is the economic front that is encouraging. Hitler got a big boost to his political career with the 1929 crash, and I don’t see how the global economic collapse will not provide a big boost to nationalists (even to white nationalism). Sure the jews will ramp up their oppression to maintain their grip on power, but with their globo homo system undergoing serious convulsions, how is this not a good thing?

  33. @Matt Forney
    My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I'm in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who's been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won't comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania's Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be "until further notice" and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They're not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples' faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Cassandra, @Agathoklis, @Dieter Kief, @Peter Akuleyev

    Complete rubbish. Greece has shut down all schools, day care centres and universities. Also, public gatherings are banned.

  34. @Cassandra
    @Matt Forney

    You are not accurate about Greece. There are to this date under a hundred cases and large portions of the country are shut down. My friend works for a major telecom and it has been closed for a solid week. They are doing a fine job of containment and their spread came from tourists who visited Israel and a woman from Milan.

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @BJRN

    Precisely. The Greeks were actually quite decisive and this is in the face of state-based terrorism, using illegals as a weapon, stemming from Turkey.

  35. @Carlton Meyer
    For another view, here is a post from another blog:

    A doctor who attended a COVID-related conference in the Billinson medical center in Israel had published some of the key notes, which confirm my opinion that the corona scare is massively exaggerated by many people:

    1)Most infected will only have the symptoms of a common cold (as with 4 other known strains of coronaviruses).
    2)Serious cases - fever.
    3)Fatal cases - mostly elderly above the age of 80 with very weak immune system.
    4)Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
    5)Most infected will self recover and develop higher immunity to the virus.
    6)Transmitted via fluids, not air. So standing in the vicinity of infected is not dangerous, but if they cough while near you it's best to be tested.
    7)Transmission before symptoms appear is possible but extremely low.
    8)Self testing technique involves holding your breath for 10 seconds and see if you have any difficulties.
    9)A Japanese home remedy is to drink every about 15 minutes so that virus fragments in your throat will slide down to the stomach, where the stomach acids will kill them almost instantly.

    Replies: @Anonymous (n), @Kratoklastes, @OscarWildeLoveChild

    Absolute horseshit. Millions of people get infected in Italy during the flu season every ear, yet this does not cause their hospitals to be overwhelmed with critical cases to the point that people are left on their own to asphyxiate for lack of ventilators.

    Corona on the other hand has already submerged Italian ICUs despite there being officially <15,000 cases. Even if the official number of cases is undercounted by an order of magnitude, that's still less than 150,000 cases in the country. We may not know the exact mortality rate of this virus, but we know it has the capability to destroy a modern, relatively robust healthcare system when far less than 1% of the population gets infected. "This is not the flu bro."

    • Agree: reiner Tor, Ludwig
    • Replies: @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

    Replies: @Anonymous (n)

  36. @Anatoly Karlin
    Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Really No Shit, @Mark12345, @Jim Christian

    I loook forward to a comprehensive precise reply to Pft’s Comment #29.

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon? AND can you calculate the consequences of different rates of flu vaccination in different countries? I suspect that many of those that die of flu in the US only die because of the cost of vaccination.

    • Replies: @Redneck farmer
    @Wizard of Oz

    Dude, the majority of people who don't get vaccinated for the flu in America can afford it. They don't want to take the time or don't think the vaccine is going to work or are scared of needles.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz

    , @another anon
    @Wizard of Oz


    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon?

     

    It depends. How based and redpilled you are?

    https://twitter.com/RmSalih/status/1238080437370699776

    Replies: @Oscar Peterson

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Wizard of Oz

    I think it is more or less addressed in the article.

    The first set of age-specific mortality estimates is based on data from Diamond Princess, where 100% of people were tested.

    From the abstract of the second study, which arrives at similar figures and was used in this post's life expectancy calculations:


    We estimated the age-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) by fitting a transmission model to data from China, accounting for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) and increased considerably for the elderly, highlighting the expected burden for populations with further expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic around the globe.
     
  37. @LondonBob
    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren't accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry, @eugyppius, @Ludwig, @Skeptikal

    Mortality is probably a korean .5% in optimal conditions where every critical case can be put on a respirator. When the system is overwhelmed mortality looks like 3-6%. Of course the stress is on looks like, overwhelmed health systems are not testing everyone. That means you have in effect a different pandemic, where some portion of the population can be modeled as having immunity (really they are/were susceptible but never develop serious symptoms and their infections never show up in stats), but in exchange higher mortality.

  38. @utu
    @Pft

    I agree with the author of the article that you have plagiarized in your comment from:


    COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think
    By JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST (MARCH 04, 2020)

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
     
    Word for word. Anyway, thanks for posting JEREMY SAMUEL FAUST article.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz

    I’m unable to find the author’s comment a out the plagiarism. Where did you find that?

    • Replies: @utu
    @Wizard of Oz

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

    , @Sparkon
    @Wizard of Oz

    I guess utu forgot where he read about pft's plagiarism bust, but I believe 'twas I who pointed it out:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/arguably-wrong-potential-american-deaths-range-from-5k-to-5-million/#comment-3767706

  39. @Omegabooks
    @Dmitry

    Not exactly humid most of the time in far west Texas, but even in March it's gotten close to the 80sand getting more rain than usual. And not very populated either. And cleaner.

    And like the anime, AK...

    Replies: @Salmon Jones, @Dmitry

    Rare to see anyone else from far west texas. Big Bend-er here. Weirdly warm for march after a weirdly rainy entire 2019. That and the only parts of Texas to be all that infected have been like 700+ miles from JDC. If my county’s getting anything it’ll be thanks to our unwashed neighbors to the south of us across the border.

  40. I keep on repeating this. But few people seem to grasp the message. I guess people are less capable of thinking long-term than used to be the case.

    Forget about vaccines. It will take years to develop one for this strain of coronavirus. By then, it would have morphed into something else. In fact, those who have been immunised may be in mortal danger as is the case with dengue fever.

    The only approach that will work is a more accurate, faster, cheaper test. Combine such a test with triage of the population and this thing will disappear in protected countries/localities.

    I proposed a similar concept – with anonymous data – as a solution for the AIDS/HIV problem many years ago. I got a US patent for it and it was approved by the FDA.

    If taking temperatures were a fool-proof way of detecting coronavirus, this thing would have been controlled in weeks.

    Everything else is just a waste of time.

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Alfred

    This.
    Look at south korea where the approach is test everyone, isolate positives. You want to have low mortality and keep the infection at hospital capacity without a lockdown, this is the only way.

    Otherwise you are in the dark about the state of the pandemic and you have to totally shut down society to get infections under control.

    Every discussion we are having about the course of the infection in this country vs that country is conditioned by the totally inadequate sloppy haphazard testing and all the imponderables of selection effects in different healthcare systems. until recently even deaths are likely miscategorized because old people succumb to pneumonia after flu-like symptoms all the time, and there were enough respirators so nobody said anything.

    A tsunami is coming at us and everyone has closed their eyes.

    Replies: @Spanky

    , @streamfortyseven
    @Alfred

    Treatments have been found and are being used in China and South Korea. In China, they’re using chloroquine, and in South Korea, hydroxychloroquine, both anti-malarials. Other treatments involve zinc and zinc ionophores, such as quercitin, a bioflavonoid, available OTC. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE4_LsftNKM and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4808895/ and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25050823

  41. @Wizard of Oz
    @utu

    I'm unable to find the author's comment a out the plagiarism. Where did you find that?

    Replies: @utu, @Sparkon

  42. • Replies: @Kim
    @neutral

    So they read unz?

    , @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @neutral

    They've probably been reading too much Unz.com crap.

  43. @Anonymous (n)
    @Carlton Meyer

    Absolute horseshit. Millions of people get infected in Italy during the flu season every ear, yet this does not cause their hospitals to be overwhelmed with critical cases to the point that people are left on their own to asphyxiate for lack of ventilators.

    Corona on the other hand has already submerged Italian ICUs despite there being officially <15,000 cases. Even if the official number of cases is undercounted by an order of magnitude, that's still less than 150,000 cases in the country. We may not know the exact mortality rate of this virus, but we know it has the capability to destroy a modern, relatively robust healthcare system when far less than 1% of the population gets infected. "This is not the flu bro."

    Replies: @utu

    60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

    • Replies: @Anonymous (n)
    @utu

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false, since prior to the onset of Coronavirus, Italian hospitals were not being overwhelmed by old people dying from "some cold or flu." There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline that is overwhelming the healthcare system there, since the system was not overwhelmed before the arrival of Corona.

    Please tell me you understand this most simple of logic.

    Replies: @utu, @for-the-record

  44. @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

    Replies: @Anonymous (n)

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false, since prior to the onset of Coronavirus, Italian hospitals were not being overwhelmed by old people dying from “some cold or flu.” There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline that is overwhelming the healthcare system there, since the system was not overwhelmed before the arrival of Corona.

    Please tell me you understand this most simple of logic.

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    We need accurate numbers and accurate diagnoses to get the real sense of how unusual is the current situation.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Alfred, @Daniel Chieh

    , @for-the-record
    @Anonymous (n)

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false . . . There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline

    Whether this is a "real increase" over simply time-shifted a few months remains to be seen. In some ways an analogous situation may prove to be the "canicule" (heat wave) in France in August 2003 which was subsequently estimated to have been responsible for approximately 15,000 "extra" deaths of (almost entirely elderly) people in France:

    https://www.inserm.fr/sites/default/files/2017-11/Inserm_RapportThematique_SurmortaliteCaniculeAout2003_RapportFinal.pdf

    The annual death totals in France for the period 2000-2005:

    2000 ... 540,600
    2001 ... 541,000
    2002 ... 545,2000
    2003 ... 562,500 (Canicule: 15,000 excess deaths)
    2004 ... 519,500
    2005 ... 538,100

    To the untrained eye it would appear that c.15,000 deaths were effectively "advanced" from 2004 to 2003, i.e. that 15,000 people had their lives shortened by one year. In fact, it may have been only a few months if the reduction in deaths in 2004 (relative to a "standard" year) occurred primarily in the earlier months of the year.

    Replies: @utu

  45. @Anonymous (n)
    @utu

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false, since prior to the onset of Coronavirus, Italian hospitals were not being overwhelmed by old people dying from "some cold or flu." There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline that is overwhelming the healthcare system there, since the system was not overwhelmed before the arrival of Corona.

    Please tell me you understand this most simple of logic.

    Replies: @utu, @for-the-record

    We need accurate numbers and accurate diagnoses to get the real sense of how unusual is the current situation.

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @utu

    No we don't. In plain sight the hospitals in the most affected parts of Italy are overwhelmed. The current situation is unprecedented for the doctors in the hospitals.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Alfred
    @utu

    The evidence was presented by @Anonymous (n)

    Why do you find it so difficult to accept that you were wrong? We all make mistakes sometimes so you are not alone. :-)

    Replies: @utu

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @utu

    Its pretty bad in Italy. Even if it doesn't increase elderly death rates in the absolute(which I doubt), time compression will increase the stress on the system and cause secondary effects.

    Replies: @utu

  46. @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    We need accurate numbers and accurate diagnoses to get the real sense of how unusual is the current situation.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Alfred, @Daniel Chieh

    No we don’t. In plain sight the hospitals in the most affected parts of Italy are overwhelmed. The current situation is unprecedented for the doctors in the hospitals.

    • Replies: @utu
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    "... overwhelmed." - Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need. Narcissistic mamoni killing their parents.


    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf

    The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

    Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).
     

    Replies: @Kim, @AP

  47. After sober analysis, extensive reading, and careful assessment of each and every fact either directly or indirectly related to COVID19, I am now fully convinced of the following:

    – The virus was deliberately created by aliens from the Betelgeuse solar system, who have been secretly spying on our planet for the last 200 years.
    – The Betelgeusians have developed a supremely accurate quantum computer model (“It’s Quantum!”) of our species, which predicts what various factions of humanity will do given any set of specific circumstances and inputs.
    – The Betelgeusians, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to re-balance various factions of humanity here on earth, depending on their projected threat to other populations and the planet in general.
    – After running various scenarios through their quantum computer (“It’s Quantum!”), the results for advancing an optimal future became obvious.
    – The COVID19 was created specifically to attack Italians, Iranians, and Han Chinese.
    – In their computer simulation (“It’s Quantum!”), those three groups were considered most egregiously able to perpetrate negative effects on the rest of humanity in the future.
    – Therefore, the Betelgeusians made the onerous decision to create and release the virus.
    – Various intended consequences were also the result of the simulation (“It’s Quantum!”); these include vituperation and blowback on the US Deep State embedded for lo! these many years.
    – A popular mass uprising will take effect against the Derp State, and leftism/progressivism will finally be tossed out on its collective ear all over Western Civilization. It will be so thoroughly maligned, that it will finally end up on the ash heap of history, never to return.
    – The Betelgeusians will surreptitiously introduce an antidote into the ecosphere, thereby eradicating all further related susceptibility and deaths.
    – The Betelgeusians will look down on their handiwork with benign satisfaction.
    – Western Civilization will again have a chance to flourish like never before, entering a new Renaissance, and everybody will live happily ever after.

    There… don’t you like my story much better than all the other nonsense you’ve been pummeled with lately? (You can thank me later.)

    • Thanks: Gleimhart Mantooso
    • LOL: neutral
    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    @Monotonous Languor

    I find your arguments persuasive and would like to sign up for your newsletter.

    , @anonymous coward
    @Monotonous Languor


    Betelgeusians
     
    Are these guys also (((reptiloids)))?
  48. “At least for America, they have an unusual opportunity to benefit from their lack of public transport, and everyone having their own car, and going to the office in the hermetically sealed cabin.”

    Not everyone. Here in S. California, our migrant gardeners and other laborers normally make their rounds with two or three people closely sharing the front seat of a pickup truck. I suspect the same is the case elsewhere. The virus will spread among the migrant community, and our already-overrun emergency rooms will be further overrun. Those with children will transmit the virus to them, thus creating a new vector. To prevent this by achieving stay-home compliance, we will need to hand-out income-replacement money to gardeners and other laborers (and to those who, perhaps, forgive me, might be falsely claiming to be fully employed as the same).

    By the way, I cannot imagine what we will do with 50,000 people living in our homeless encampments. Will we say “stay in your tent”? ”Stay in your cardboard box”?

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    @SafeNow

    From an Angeleno, good point, bra.

    Deport the illegal aliens and imprison their rich disloyal Elite employers. Eliminate anyone in both groups who resists. Including newsom and Garcetti. To the extent allowed by the law, of course, changing the law first as needed.

    As for the noncitizen homeless, they should all be deported or eliminated.

    As for US Citizen homeless, they should all be removed forcibly from our streets and helped or punished according to their situation. Many should be institutionalized or incarcerated, with the remainder given safe clean housing, full medical care, drug rehab, and a clear directive to stay off the streets and not harass people / panhandle / expose themselves / disrupt the peace or block sidewalks or be promptly dragged off and jailed.

  49. From Wikipedia, re car accidents In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions.

    Clearly, car accidents are very costly, financially and in human terms, and no doubt most of these costs could be eliminated if only we would reduce the speed limit to 20 mph nationwide.

    Yet, for some reason – probably because nasty people – society refuses to do it!

    More seriously, the price that is currently being put on human lives in this Bat Flu hysteria is – while never explicitly stated – clearly absurdly high. The average citizen isn’t worth the chemicals it cost to make him but we have to shut down the international economy so that granma will still be around in the nursing home to not recognize us again next year? Retarded.

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Kim

    Speak for yourself... Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.

    Replies: @Kim

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Kim

    You’re sick. Your relatives should fear you if you’re serious.

    Replies: @ken

  50. @neutral
    Interesting, Chinese officials are starting to say this is a US bioweapon.

    https://dailystormer.su/finally-chinese-official-accuses-the-us-of-releasing-the-coronavirus-post-conspiracy-information/

    Replies: @Kim, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    So they read unz?

  51. @Cyrano
    Was it just yesterday that they declared the Corona virus a global pandemic? I think that they should rename it – a global pan-demonium-demic.

    Everybody is talking about the negative sides of this corona virus outbreak. I would like to focus on one possible positive influence this virus might have.

    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak. With everybody wearing masks, the robbery employees - after conducting their operations in local corner stores, gas stations and even banks - can very successfully mingle with the general population upon exiting from the venues they like to do their business in, and avoid risky situations associated with their profession – such as being caught and/or being shot or subjected to lengthy prison sentences.

    Replies: @Alfred, @Calculator

    [MORE]

    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak

    In Italy, the Nigerian prostitution racket is bound to be badly fucked (pun intended). What a shame! So much beauty gone to waste! 🙂

    • Replies: @Truth
    @Alfred



    Intetesting: CV decreases IQ in those not showing symptoms, as well.

  52. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @utu

    No we don't. In plain sight the hospitals in the most affected parts of Italy are overwhelmed. The current situation is unprecedented for the doctors in the hospitals.

    Replies: @utu

    “… overwhelmed.” – Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need. Narcissistic mamoni killing their parents.

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf

    The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

    Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).

    • Replies: @Kim
    @utu

    I wonder how many years will be cut off the life expectancy of people who lose their jobs or businesses because the international economy has been shut down for fear of a bad case of the Chinese sniffles?

    After all, these calculations must be available, right?

    Surely, somewhere in the depths of the Government Accounting Office in Washington there is a triple-locked safe guarded with moving infared beams that can cut through tungsten that contains documents that show the precise value of a human life, calculated by CPAs and organized by age, sex, occupation, and region.

    Why do I say "surely"? Because if not, then on what basis are the idiots in Washington making the decisions that they are making? If they do not have such figures, how can they decide what are acceptable losses, how can they model the impact on the economy in the near and more distant future? Who is expendable and why? And where?

    We must have these calculations, otherwise on what basis, according to what figures and what calculations did Trump decide to shut down travael from Europe? At first the fat nincompoop even announced the shut down of even the transport of goods! Was this decision simply random? Did he toss a coin?

    Please don't tell me this was all decided off figures scribbled on the back of an envelope. Or on the basis of some white House intern's overnight research and subsequent guardily-colored PowerPoint.

    Please don't tell me the place is run on such an unsophisticated and uniformed basis.

    What prices are they putting on various human lives in their decision making? Would we be able to find out through a FOIA application? Somehow, I am thinking not. I think they are making their decisions with one thumb up their butts because they are all cardboard cut-outs and idiots.

    Replies: @utu, @Ludwig

    , @AP
    @utu


    “… overwhelmed.” – Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need.
     
    A good argument. The problem is that Italy had been taking the issue very lightly until it hit them (there was the case of that mayor going to a pub and urging others to do so - he now has the virus). So why no hysteria before, and such deadly mass hysteria now? This suggests that there must be at least a significant kernel of truth underlying the phenomenon.

    Replies: @LondonBob

  53. Back on March 3 worldometer listed 36 persons in serious/critical condition after contracting corona virus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Ten days later it still lists 32. Does not seem to be resolving very quickly. Good way to drain people’s estates? Ha.

    The subsequent terrible rash of deaths at the Life Care Center in Washington state should be some kind of head’s up. Where is the CFR mathing out in that instance? MIGHT be better for family to take some of these elderly people back home if condition is just moderate-serious. Give them more love, better food, expose them less to strangers. Save some money. Maybe use some better complimentary therapies? Could well improve their odds. Just a thought.

    PS. For all those people stocking up on mass quantities of food, grabbing all the jars of peanut butter etc. and not leaving me even one barrel of rolled oats, be sure to EAT IT. Do not let it go to waste; at the very least please donate it to a homeless shelter or similar before it perishes. Thanks.

  54. @nickels
    I guess the key concept is flattening the curve to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.
    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.
    Otherwise extreme quarantine measures seem kind of stupid.

    Replies: @Alfred

    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.

    If this is indeed the case, the graph is incorrect. Quarantining does work. Wuhan is proof of that.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Alfred

    Agree. The flattened curve integral should be smaller. Furthermore why the flattened curve extends so much?

    , @nickels
    @Alfred

    All this is missing the point.
    Sliwing the RATE of infections is what decreases the total number of deaths because of the aforementioned reason.

    The virus is going to infect a sharfload of people whether measures are in place or not.

    Replies: @Alfred

  55. @Alfred
    I keep on repeating this. But few people seem to grasp the message. I guess people are less capable of thinking long-term than used to be the case.

    Forget about vaccines. It will take years to develop one for this strain of coronavirus. By then, it would have morphed into something else. In fact, those who have been immunised may be in mortal danger as is the case with dengue fever.

    The only approach that will work is a more accurate, faster, cheaper test. Combine such a test with triage of the population and this thing will disappear in protected countries/localities.

    I proposed a similar concept - with anonymous data - as a solution for the AIDS/HIV problem many years ago. I got a US patent for it and it was approved by the FDA.

    If taking temperatures were a fool-proof way of detecting coronavirus, this thing would have been controlled in weeks.

    Everything else is just a waste of time.

    https://www.chinadailyhk.com/attachments/image/142/147/187/518904_215951/518904_215951_800_532_jpg.jpg

    Replies: @eugyppius, @streamfortyseven

    This.
    Look at south korea where the approach is test everyone, isolate positives. You want to have low mortality and keep the infection at hospital capacity without a lockdown, this is the only way.

    Otherwise you are in the dark about the state of the pandemic and you have to totally shut down society to get infections under control.

    Every discussion we are having about the course of the infection in this country vs that country is conditioned by the totally inadequate sloppy haphazard testing and all the imponderables of selection effects in different healthcare systems. until recently even deaths are likely miscategorized because old people succumb to pneumonia after flu-like symptoms all the time, and there were enough respirators so nobody said anything.

    A tsunami is coming at us and everyone has closed their eyes.

    • Thanks: Alfred
    • Replies: @Spanky
    @eugyppius

    We are in the dark about the state of this pandemic in the US.

    Daughter (30) called and reported a high fever, hacking dry cough, squeezing feeling in her chest and shortness of breath. Told her to call the local hospital. She did. On hold for an hour, no one picked up. Hospital finally called back 6 hours later and asked about her symptoms. Told her she didn't need to be tested (no sore throat). Her symptoms developed four or five days after she returned from a trip to California flying via LAX and Denver...

    Replies: @eugyppius

  56. @utu
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    "... overwhelmed." - Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need. Narcissistic mamoni killing their parents.


    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf

    The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

    Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).
     

    Replies: @Kim, @AP

    I wonder how many years will be cut off the life expectancy of people who lose their jobs or businesses because the international economy has been shut down for fear of a bad case of the Chinese sniffles?

    After all, these calculations must be available, right?

    Surely, somewhere in the depths of the Government Accounting Office in Washington there is a triple-locked safe guarded with moving infared beams that can cut through tungsten that contains documents that show the precise value of a human life, calculated by CPAs and organized by age, sex, occupation, and region.

    Why do I say “surely”? Because if not, then on what basis are the idiots in Washington making the decisions that they are making? If they do not have such figures, how can they decide what are acceptable losses, how can they model the impact on the economy in the near and more distant future? Who is expendable and why? And where?

    We must have these calculations, otherwise on what basis, according to what figures and what calculations did Trump decide to shut down travael from Europe? At first the fat nincompoop even announced the shut down of even the transport of goods! Was this decision simply random? Did he toss a coin?

    Please don’t tell me this was all decided off figures scribbled on the back of an envelope. Or on the basis of some white House intern’s overnight research and subsequent guardily-colored PowerPoint.

    Please don’t tell me the place is run on such an unsophisticated and uniformed basis.

    What prices are they putting on various human lives in their decision making? Would we be able to find out through a FOIA application? Somehow, I am thinking not. I think they are making their decisions with one thumb up their butts because they are all cardboard cut-outs and idiots.

    • Agree: Kratoklastes
    • Replies: @utu
    @Kim

    I think you are a troll.

    , @Ludwig
    @Kim

    BTW transport of goods To Europe was not cut off (that was Trump misspeaking either by adding a “not” or not adding another “not” to make a double negative.

    On the price of a human life: very frankly it is whatever that society puts on it based on the cause of death. For example, in the US, there would be great resistance to taking away guns/decreasing speed limits/limiting soda cup sizes/mandatory self-isolation in case of the Flu all of which can save significant life. In these cases lives are “cheap”.

    This is an election year in the US. Every COVID-19 death is a boon for the Democrats, blow to Trump like it would be in a terrorist attack. Similarly for drop in stock market / growth. The Trump admin has to thread the needle to make sure deaths are contained (esp as compared to Europe) while not cratering economically till November.

    Long story short: the price of a life is not fixed. A 90 year old dying of poverty has zero value to Americans. A 90 year old dying of Coronavirus is worth a lot.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

  57. @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    We need accurate numbers and accurate diagnoses to get the real sense of how unusual is the current situation.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Alfred, @Daniel Chieh

    The evidence was presented by

    Why do you find it so difficult to accept that you were wrong? We all make mistakes sometimes so you are not alone. 🙂

    • Replies: @utu
    @Alfred

    When I am wrong I do not find it difficult to accept it. I am not wrong in this case.

    Replies: @AP

  58. @Alfred
    @nickels


    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.
     
    If this is indeed the case, the graph is incorrect. Quarantining does work. Wuhan is proof of that.

    Replies: @utu, @nickels

    Agree. The flattened curve integral should be smaller. Furthermore why the flattened curve extends so much?

    • Thanks: Alfred
  59. @Alfred
    @utu

    The evidence was presented by @Anonymous (n)

    Why do you find it so difficult to accept that you were wrong? We all make mistakes sometimes so you are not alone. :-)

    Replies: @utu

    When I am wrong I do not find it difficult to accept it. I am not wrong in this case.

    • Replies: @AP
    @utu

    I certainly hope so!

  60. I’ve mentioned (many) times before that I live in downtown Vancouver. I feel it’s an important data point. As far as I can tell, no other member of the greater Unzitariat lives here.

    According to the demographics of this city, it should have been locked down weeks ago. Here’s the latest news out of BC:
    https://globalnews.ca/news/6663168/coronavirus-bc-health-daily-update/

    One is a man in his 20s who lives in the Vancouver Coastal Health region, the other is a woman in her 50s who lives in the Fraser Health region. Both are in isolation at home.

    READ MORE: Province opening new 811 call centre in response to increase in COVID-19 calls

    Three of the cases are linked to Egypt, including B.C.’s first reported case in the Vancouver Island Health Authority. Two are new community cases, she added.

    Three of the cases are linked to Egypt…

  61. Trudeau soon is going to be the first head of state with coronavirus! Somewhat surprised, thought that Cambodian kinda dictator will get it sooner after greeting that cruiseliner. Also what kind of special idiots are masquerading as “doctors” in Canada for advising not to test their PM since he has no symptoms so far?:

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @sudden death

    Given the number of 'names' testing positive this highly contagious virus has already spread widely, the problem then is for others to explain why so few deaths.

    Looks quite likely Trump might have it.

    Replies: @Kim

    , @reiner Tor
    @sudden death

    The good doctors are correct, they shouldn’t waste scarce test kits on useless eaters.

    Also he’s a head of government, not head of state, the latter is still Elisabeth.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    Looks like Bolsonaro beat him to the punch.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1238479778669301760

    Replies: @neutral, @sudden death, @yakushimaru

  62. Despite all speculations and safety concerns, the US Army will conduct the largest military training in 25 years in Europe, with over 20.000 American participants moving into Europe rolling out over mainly six European countries and later return to the States. So the virus is either relatively harmless or part of American warfare.

    Defender Europe 20 is to take place in april and may this year.

    https://www.voltairenet.org/article209437.html

    • Replies: @NobodyKnowsImaDog
    @Antares

    There's a third possibility you're not accounting for: the US military doesn't give a shit about its' troops, and will expose them to huge risk for no reason other than pride, stupidity, or greed.

    For a very short list:
    Agent Orange
    Open air nuclear testing on soldiers
    Depleted uranium shells
    UCP Camo (selected despite being the worst performing camo in their own tests)
    Original Bradley design
    Humvee design
    Toxic waste on Army bases
    VA medical system

  63. I can’t believe Karlin is actually reporting on this massive hoax to the extent that he is.

    This has shades of Iraq WMD panic about it.

    • Agree: Truth
    • Replies: @JL
    @Just Passing Through

    Entire countries are shutting down their economies. The US stock market just shed almost 30% of its value at one of the fastest rates in history. Some hoax.

    Replies: @neutral

    , @Calculator
    @Just Passing Through



    KArlin has done a great job and should be commended for writing these extensive articles everyday continually beating this hoax oh I mean keeping us abreast of this pandemic. I found his graphs particularly useful and have sent them to Disney as they may come in useful in the design of their next roller coaster. Wheeeeeeeeeeeee !

  64. @sudden death
    Trudeau soon is going to be the first head of state with coronavirus! Somewhat surprised, thought that Cambodian kinda dictator will get it sooner after greeting that cruiseliner. Also what kind of special idiots are masquerading as "doctors" in Canada for advising not to test their PM since he has no symptoms so far?:


    https://twitter.com/emilyrauhala/status/1238282233863180296

    Replies: @LondonBob, @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin

    Given the number of ‘names’ testing positive this highly contagious virus has already spread widely, the problem then is for others to explain why so few deaths.

    Looks quite likely Trump might have it.

    • Replies: @Kim
    @LondonBob

    Nothing says "Illuminati Hoax" like the fact that Tom Hanks says he has it.

    If he really had it, you can be sure there would also be lots of dead kids in his vicinity.

  65. @Just Passing Through
    I can't believe Karlin is actually reporting on this massive hoax to the extent that he is.

    This has shades of Iraq WMD panic about it.

    Replies: @JL, @Calculator

    Entire countries are shutting down their economies. The US stock market just shed almost 30% of its value at one of the fastest rates in history. Some hoax.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @neutral
    @JL

    I don't know exactly how deadly or not it is, so far the death toll does not seem that spectacular, however shutting down a country does not prove how deadly it is, it just proves how much different countries/people panic about things.

  66. @neutral
    Interesting, Chinese officials are starting to say this is a US bioweapon.

    https://dailystormer.su/finally-chinese-official-accuses-the-us-of-releasing-the-coronavirus-post-conspiracy-information/

    Replies: @Kim, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    They’ve probably been reading too much Unz.com crap.

  67. Something a little more positive from the China perspective

    We are increasing our understanding of this disease. It is clearly very infectious, at least in some circumstances. As we have explained this means that the case severity is likely to be lower than the crude fatality rates in many media reports. We have explained the dilemma of mortality early in epidemics here. The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO). It could be higher but it could be lower if blood testing eventually confirms more widespread, mild disease. The hospital mortality over the age of 80 years is 15%. Another way of looking at this data is that of every 100 people over the age of 80 who contract COVID-19 and become ill enough to go to hospital. 85% make a full recovery.

  68. Also mutation into different strains is inevitable and recovering from one strain, even if you acquire immunity to it, wouldn’t necessarily give you immunity from another.

  69. My Chinese colleague from work’s parents have been holed up in an apartment in Zhengzhou for 45 days with only minimal freedom to go out for supplies by appointment, then a virtual battery of heat and temperature tests to get back in the building.
    The city (10 million) hasn’t had a new case for 2 weeks and they were on the verge of relaxing the strict isolation rules.
    Then some Chinese fella who’d been travelling in Europe returned to Zhengzhou, travelled home on public transport doing his shopping on the way, and it turns out he’s infected.
    I don’t know the precise translation from mandarin but it was something like “the whole city want to string him up”

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @LondonBob

    I have heard that the local government in Zhengzhou has become famous for how strict its quarantine measures are.

  70. @sudden death
    Trudeau soon is going to be the first head of state with coronavirus! Somewhat surprised, thought that Cambodian kinda dictator will get it sooner after greeting that cruiseliner. Also what kind of special idiots are masquerading as "doctors" in Canada for advising not to test their PM since he has no symptoms so far?:


    https://twitter.com/emilyrauhala/status/1238282233863180296

    Replies: @LondonBob, @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin

    The good doctors are correct, they shouldn’t waste scarce test kits on useless eaters.

    Also he’s a head of government, not head of state, the latter is still Elisabeth.

  71. @Wizard of Oz
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I loook forward to a comprehensive precise reply to Pft's Comment #29.

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon? AND can you calculate the consequences of different rates of flu vaccination in different countries? I suspect that many of those that die of flu in the US only die because of the cost of vaccination.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @another anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    Dude, the majority of people who don’t get vaccinated for the flu in America can afford it. They don’t want to take the time or don’t think the vaccine is going to work or are scared of needles.

    • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @Redneck farmer

    Well the cause doesn't affect my point if there are indeed very different vaccination rates in different First World countries.

    , @Wizard of Oz
    @Redneck farmer

    I have just read this

    Coronavirus: Why systemic problems leave the US at risk - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51840233

    It refers to 27 million Americans who have no health insurance at all, plus 11 million "undocumented immigrants" and all those whose cover is so inadequate that they would give up on fluvax to pay family food bills.

  72. @JL
    @Just Passing Through

    Entire countries are shutting down their economies. The US stock market just shed almost 30% of its value at one of the fastest rates in history. Some hoax.

    Replies: @neutral

    I don’t know exactly how deadly or not it is, so far the death toll does not seem that spectacular, however shutting down a country does not prove how deadly it is, it just proves how much different countries/people panic about things.

  73. @Matt Forney
    My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I'm in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who's been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won't comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania's Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be "until further notice" and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They're not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples' faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Cassandra, @Agathoklis, @Dieter Kief, @Peter Akuleyev

    There seems to be enough of collective thinking energy/ ability left in Albania to handle this crisis in a reasonable way. Greece is (and has been) dominated by an extremely individualistic/ anarchist mindset. State (=the collective) = your personal enemy (beware -robs you of your money with the well know tactic of calling his longing for your posessions “taxes”. Avoid these attempts of the state at any cost (these costs are not that high anyway… – this is how we get along, since ages – the constant Greek inner monologue).

    Trump is more on the Taki’s Mag / Greece/ Libertarian / individualistic / anarchist side. A form of complexity reduction, which works up to a point – especially as long as collective action does not become a question of life or death.

    ^Bottom line: Eastern European countries have more of the mental resouces left, which allow for collective action.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Dieter Kief

    Why did you post that Karlin was blocked in the UK? Which site?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dieter Kief

  74. Question: Why are Scandinavian countries (+ Iceland) which have among the highest rates in the world showing so few deaths (0.08%) and serious/critical cases (0.17%)?

    1. They are still in an early phase, and deaths in large numbers will arrive in a few weeks time?

    2. Because of the super-efficiency of Scandinavian health systems? (unlikely since it seems that relatively few are in hospital, and the serious cases are so few).

    3. Better health/resistance of Scandinavians?

    4. Lower genetic receptivity to the infection?

    5. Older people, who are the ones dying, are more naturally socially separated in Scandinavia (e.g., higher percentage in old age facilties where they can be more easily isolated)?

    6. Coronavirus in Scandinavia is somehow different (less severe) than in Southern Europe?

    • Replies: @JRB
    @for-the-record

    It's 1, 3, 4, not 2, 5 and 6

    , @Jaakko Raipala
    @for-the-record

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you'll be hearing a totally different story soon. All has gone to hell and the health care system is mostly irrelevant now as they're just telling people to go home and take care of themselves. Case numbers are also becoming meaningless as they've largerly stopped testing people.

    We had cases early on through Chinese tourists but that was contained with quarantines and travel blocks. So there's a big time lag between the first cases and the epidemic going out of control now that people brought it in from Italy (with the governments doing nothing at all to prevent it). The Chinese tourists also mainly brought it to Lapland so it was handled by the tourist industry and the rednecks up there who still have some remnant of unpozzed government.

    Now that it's spreading in Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo it's all being handled by some of the most incompetent officials that you can find in any first world country. If anything good comes out of this crisis, it might prick the Nordic model bubble. People imagine that we still have good governance when the past few decades have been just one relentless march to poz singularity of promoting people solely on progressive ideological credentials. Acccess to health care is also not actually that good unless you have a lot of money or one of the prog idpol paths past the long queues.

    Replies: @for-the-record

    , @BeeGee
    @for-the-record

    I vote #4. There’s a long article on Zerohedge that swayed me.

  75. @Pft
    Actually, this is so wrong.

    AK: Comment is plagiarized (h/t utu). Go to the source: https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html



    We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.

    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR, declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male population smoking

    In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.

    I rest my case.

    Replies: @utu, @Divine Right

    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate.

    That may be true, but it says little about what percentage of that group required a hospital stay in the first place. What if it’s higher for Covid-19? In that case, it could have the same mortality but yet produce more deaths; 20% of a larger number is a larger number. Maybe that’s why Italy’s health system is being overwhelmed.

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    I think that’s possible.

    In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface.

    Maybe this is true. But still, I wonder if there wasn’t a sampling bias here. By the time it began spreading outside of Hubei, at risk populations (elderly) may have begun to take precautions such as social distancing. This would have weighted infection cases to less at risk groups — those in greater need of travel or those more likely to be in large gatherings, such as the young. The result might be a decline in CFR not necessarily representative of the true value inherent to the pathogen in an open society, especially in one undergoing extreme quarantine measures. Although, that really depends upon to what extent and when quarantine went into effect, etc.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus. … On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent.

    This is more of a lower bound. Of the ~696 confirmed cases, only 388 or so have recovered fully. So, roughly half. The upper bound here would be about 7 more deaths for a CFR in that cohort of around 2% (although I don’t expect it to go that high). In the general population, it might be less than 1% because a higher proportion of cruise ship passengers are older. Even at 0.5%, that’s still much higher than seasonal influenza.

    Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles

    RNA isn’t very stable. That’s one of the reasons why most viruses outside the host aren’t viable for more than a few days at best. Some are hardier, but many are not. The body also has various mechanisms to quickly eliminate it. Your skin, for example, exudes enzymes that will quickly degrade RNA samples. Experiment areas must be carefully disinfected when working with the stuff. I’d assume if your rt-PCR is detecting massive quantities of RNA in a patient sample, then there are probably infectious virions floating around. The technique is very sensitive. True, that’s more a rule of thumb and doesn’t necessarily hold in all circumstances, but it’s a good first guess.

  76. @Anonymous (n)
    @utu

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false, since prior to the onset of Coronavirus, Italian hospitals were not being overwhelmed by old people dying from "some cold or flu." There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline that is overwhelming the healthcare system there, since the system was not overwhelmed before the arrival of Corona.

    Please tell me you understand this most simple of logic.

    Replies: @utu, @for-the-record

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false . . . There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline

    Whether this is a “real increase” over simply time-shifted a few months remains to be seen. In some ways an analogous situation may prove to be the “canicule” (heat wave) in France in August 2003 which was subsequently estimated to have been responsible for approximately 15,000 “extra” deaths of (almost entirely elderly) people in France:

    https://www.inserm.fr/sites/default/files/2017-11/Inserm_RapportThematique_SurmortaliteCaniculeAout2003_RapportFinal.pdf

    The annual death totals in France for the period 2000-2005:

    2000 … 540,600
    2001 … 541,000
    2002 … 545,2000
    2003 … 562,500 (Canicule: 15,000 excess deaths)
    2004 … 519,500
    2005 … 538,100

    To the untrained eye it would appear that c.15,000 deaths were effectively “advanced” from 2004 to 2003, i.e. that 15,000 people had their lives shortened by one year. In fact, it may have been only a few months if the reduction in deaths in 2004 (relative to a “standard” year) occurred primarily in the earlier months of the year.

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    Thanks. Good example.

  77. The comparison with 1994 Russia is not entirely correct. The high mortality rate there was largely a function of individual behavior. You could greatly reduce the chances of being murdered by staying away from thugs and especially by not drinking in the company of low IQ Gopniks. You could avoid dying of suicide by simply not killing yourself. You could avoid liver cirrhosis by not drinking too much. You could greatly reduce the risk of lung cancer by not smoking. Etc.

    Covid-19 puts a much higher burden on you trying to avoid it, such high burden that it’s ultimately impossible to maintain in the long run.

    • Agree: AP, Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Kim
    @reiner Tor

    Seems people who smoke have made themselves more vulnerable to the bug. They have done this despite 50 years of vigorous anti-smoking measures and propaganda.

    They knew the risks. They rolled the dice. Now they should be sent to the end of the line and treated last.

  78. @Kim
    From Wikipedia, re car accidents In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions.

    Clearly, car accidents are very costly, financially and in human terms, and no doubt most of these costs could be eliminated if only we would reduce the speed limit to 20 mph nationwide.

    Yet, for some reason - probably because nasty people - society refuses to do it!

    More seriously, the price that is currently being put on human lives in this Bat Flu hysteria is - while never explicitly stated - clearly absurdly high. The average citizen isn't worth the chemicals it cost to make him but we have to shut down the international economy so that granma will still be around in the nursing home to not recognize us again next year? Retarded.

    Replies: @Spanky, @RadicalCenter

    Speak for yourself… Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.

    • Replies: @Kim
    @Spanky


    Speak for yourself… Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.
     
    If your 103 year old (transparent internet bullshit) granny is at home (also bullshit) and you are caring for her (more bullshit), then that is your business.

    If however, you believe that endless amounts of public resources should be spent on maintaining her - because you have such an overwhelming commitment to human life - then I am sure that you are also very busy campaigning for that 20 mph national speed limit. Because every life is sacred, you know.

    Replies: @Spanky, @Wizard of Oz

  79. My father just died at the age of 83. (not virus related) Some statistics, telling he lived quite long do not comfort me, regarding his life does. Anyway, measuring life by these statistics is meaningless. Never, so much lifetime was wasted as today. Endless education, BS jobs, “entertainment”. Risk is clearly tolerated less these days, safety everywhere. But lifetime is not valued.
    What are the considerations from the article? Safety at all cost, mandatory vaccination, travel restrictions, surveillance. Strong central government. Personal freedom should be the first concern now. The timing of that “outbreak” is highly suspicious. Safety or freedom?

  80. @Carlton Meyer
    For another view, here is a post from another blog:

    A doctor who attended a COVID-related conference in the Billinson medical center in Israel had published some of the key notes, which confirm my opinion that the corona scare is massively exaggerated by many people:

    1)Most infected will only have the symptoms of a common cold (as with 4 other known strains of coronaviruses).
    2)Serious cases - fever.
    3)Fatal cases - mostly elderly above the age of 80 with very weak immune system.
    4)Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
    5)Most infected will self recover and develop higher immunity to the virus.
    6)Transmitted via fluids, not air. So standing in the vicinity of infected is not dangerous, but if they cough while near you it's best to be tested.
    7)Transmission before symptoms appear is possible but extremely low.
    8)Self testing technique involves holding your breath for 10 seconds and see if you have any difficulties.
    9)A Japanese home remedy is to drink every about 15 minutes so that virus fragments in your throat will slide down to the stomach, where the stomach acids will kill them almost instantly.

    Replies: @Anonymous (n), @Kratoklastes, @OscarWildeLoveChild

    Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.

    First sensible thing in this entire thread – although it could be clarified somewhat (e.g., the total number of infections – reported plus unreported – may be far higher than the official number).

    Also, the last sentence gives the reader the possible impression that unreported cases reduce the mortality rate: it reduces the estimate of the mortality rate (I know that’s what you meant, but it’s a critical distinction).

    .

    Very slight symptoms in the vast vast majority of cases, means that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the vast vast majority of actually-infected individuals would not have sought medical care – and were therefore not identified as a potential starting point for spread, and were therefore a vector for transmission for the entire length of the infectious stage of their (unreported) case.

    This being the case (it’s not remotely arguable that it’s not the case: the lack of ‘serious’ symptoms is an established fact)… the current estimates of the mortality rate are vastly vastly overstated.

    .

    And yet with all these unsequestered, asymptomatic-but-infected people swanning about… 1.3 billion Chinamen has generated ~80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    And a lot of those 80,000 diagnoses were not obtained by testing: they were obtained by a “checklist” approach (like AIDS in Africa, and pretty much any diagnosis from a psychocharlatan).

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    The ‘whistleblower’ made his initial post on 30 Dec – having seen data on a cluster of 7 cases in his hospital and thinking that this was being covered up. Whether he was correct or not is irrelevant: the point is that for there to have been a ‘cluster’ identified as a novel, viral, respiratory illness must have taken a week or more.

    Given that all 7 were symptomatic, were they the only cases in Wuhan (or in China) at the time? Why would anyone believe that to be the case?

    I seem to recall that the initial cluster were workers at the wet market: is this the only such place in China?

    What of the movements of other workers – including those who never exhibited symptoms? And go outwards from there… the numbers get very big very quickly if people are interacting and most people are asymptomatic.

    Anyhow… January 20th – 3 weeks after Dr Li Wenliang’s chat message – China started to impose controls.

    Notionally, Dr Li contracted the dose that killed him from an asymptomatic glaucoma patient (the 80-something woman displayed symptoms after her treatment). This happened in early January.

    So in early January there were people carrying covid19 who were not identifiable as carriers – they were capable of transmitting the pathogen but didn’t have a fever. That is unlikely to have been something that just started happening the day before.

    .

    The only way to work out how widespread this thing actually is, would be to systematically test EVERYBODY – not just people who have symptoms of some form of respiratory illness.

    Consider what it means if you only test people who are symptomatic (or you only test on small, relatively confined populations with a high probability of exposure and a high rate of underling comorbidities).

    To take it outside the current hysteria, consider if you only did breast screens for women over 50 with gigantic lumps on their breasts, and then extrapolated the result to the whole population.

    Your guess at the prevalence of breast cancer would be so ridiculously high that nobody would take you seriously.

    And yet that’s what is happening with covid19.

    As we know, though: most women don’t have breast cancer.

    If the testing protocol focuses on ‘at risk’ groups, it guarantees two things: over-estimating prevalence, AND missing a very large proportion of people who actually have the condition.

    Sounds counter-intuitive, but that’s how the number shake out.

    .

    So it can be taken either way: in large populations, either
    ① fuck-all people ever get infected and the worst-affected few percent die (that’s what the Chinese numbers look like; the Iranian numbers likewise); or…
    ② a very large number of people get infected but show no (or weak) symptoms, and fuck-all of them die.

    .

    ② Is Just like ‘flu, “brah, and is the correct answer to the question “What is actually happening?“;

    If ① was true, it would be a poor basis for global hysteria (although hysterias seldom have or need ‘good’ bases). This is why we are told the correct answer is

    ③ a very large number get infected and the worst-affected few percent die.

    ③ is being cynically manipulated to get the following tropes into the heads of dimwitted imbeciles…
    • “Listen to the experts”
    • “Do as you’re told”
    • “The situation is changing rapidly, so what you’re told might change rapidly – but continue to obey” and
    • “We just have to shovel some wealth to our cronies for a while: turns out they’re not rich enough yet.”

    • Agree: Dreadilk
    • Replies: @Calculator
    @Kratoklastes

    Great comments. Like all the other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up. The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after everyone makes their money and the public gets bored. I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase the panic.

    , @El Dato
    @Kratoklastes


    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).
     
    This is very wrong.

    They shut down the area *7 days* after the first "4 unusual cases of pneumonia"

    https://i.imgur.com/ObnnbXg.png

    Pic from that article on medium "Why you must act now" (alias http://bit.ly/38EIQ2g )

    Replies: @LondonBob

    , @Justvisiting
    @Kratoklastes

    Tracking diseases is insanely difficult.

    I agree the numbers are garbage unless you can test either everybody or a good random sample.

    At the spread stage, a test is worthless because the number of infected is doubling every few days (pick your favorite number) so even if you are negative today you could still be positive next week.

    Faced with bad data, there can be no intelligent policy decisions on a new disease.

    This whole thing reminds me of the apes and the monolith opening scene of 2001.

    The "experts" are clueless, the average idiot out there is clueless, and everybody is running around buying toilet paper.

    Meanwhile reporters are shoulder to shoulder at the WH press conferences while lecturing everyone else about social distancing.

    What a mess.

  81. Reposting this graph I added to Steve’s blog. Interesting to see when Italy starts to peak, are they already?

  82. @Spanky
    @Kim

    Speak for yourself... Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.

    Replies: @Kim

    Speak for yourself… Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.

    If your 103 year old (transparent internet bullshit) granny is at home (also bullshit) and you are caring for her (more bullshit), then that is your business.

    If however, you believe that endless amounts of public resources should be spent on maintaining her – because you have such an overwhelming commitment to human life – then I am sure that you are also very busy campaigning for that 20 mph national speed limit. Because every life is sacred, you know.

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Kim

    Screw you and your cynical bullshit.

    Granny is 103 and lives at home. Two years ago we put caregivers in the home after she fell in the bathroom. And yes, to me every family member is sacred -- Granny, father, mother, daughter and grand-daughters all matter to me. As far I'm concerned, you can play russian roulette with your family members all you want, but stay away from me and mine.

    Replies: @Just Passing Through, @ken

    , @Wizard of Oz
    @Kim

    Maybe you haven't met some very old people. My mother's youngest sister has just died at 101 and their male first cousin made it to 97, still playing tennis (serving underarm).

    Four or five years ago I had a friend's father to lunch during his annual visit (Premium Economy) to Australia and, noting that he didn't need hearing aids or a walking stick, I said "John, you must be 98 now" and received the true reply (verified by public records of his 1930s sporting achievements) that he was 102. He has now died at 107.

  83. @Monotonous Languor
    After sober analysis, extensive reading, and careful assessment of each and every fact either directly or indirectly related to COVID19, I am now fully convinced of the following:

    - The virus was deliberately created by aliens from the Betelgeuse solar system, who have been secretly spying on our planet for the last 200 years.
    - The Betelgeusians have developed a supremely accurate quantum computer model ("It's Quantum!") of our species, which predicts what various factions of humanity will do given any set of specific circumstances and inputs.
    - The Betelgeusians, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to re-balance various factions of humanity here on earth, depending on their projected threat to other populations and the planet in general.
    - After running various scenarios through their quantum computer ("It's Quantum!"), the results for advancing an optimal future became obvious.
    - The COVID19 was created specifically to attack Italians, Iranians, and Han Chinese.
    - In their computer simulation ("It's Quantum!"), those three groups were considered most egregiously able to perpetrate negative effects on the rest of humanity in the future.
    - Therefore, the Betelgeusians made the onerous decision to create and release the virus.
    - Various intended consequences were also the result of the simulation ("It's Quantum!"); these include vituperation and blowback on the US Deep State embedded for lo! these many years.
    - A popular mass uprising will take effect against the Derp State, and leftism/progressivism will finally be tossed out on its collective ear all over Western Civilization. It will be so thoroughly maligned, that it will finally end up on the ash heap of history, never to return.
    - The Betelgeusians will surreptitiously introduce an antidote into the ecosphere, thereby eradicating all further related susceptibility and deaths.
    - The Betelgeusians will look down on their handiwork with benign satisfaction.
    - Western Civilization will again have a chance to flourish like never before, entering a new Renaissance, and everybody will live happily ever after.

    There... don't you like my story much better than all the other nonsense you've been pummeled with lately? (You can thank me later.)

    Replies: @Kratoklastes, @anonymous coward

    I find your arguments persuasive and would like to sign up for your newsletter.

  84. @reiner Tor
    The comparison with 1994 Russia is not entirely correct. The high mortality rate there was largely a function of individual behavior. You could greatly reduce the chances of being murdered by staying away from thugs and especially by not drinking in the company of low IQ Gopniks. You could avoid dying of suicide by simply not killing yourself. You could avoid liver cirrhosis by not drinking too much. You could greatly reduce the risk of lung cancer by not smoking. Etc.

    Covid-19 puts a much higher burden on you trying to avoid it, such high burden that it’s ultimately impossible to maintain in the long run.

    Replies: @Kim

    Seems people who smoke have made themselves more vulnerable to the bug. They have done this despite 50 years of vigorous anti-smoking measures and propaganda.

    They knew the risks. They rolled the dice. Now they should be sent to the end of the line and treated last.

    • Disagree: GazaPlanet
  85. @eugyppius
    @Alfred

    This.
    Look at south korea where the approach is test everyone, isolate positives. You want to have low mortality and keep the infection at hospital capacity without a lockdown, this is the only way.

    Otherwise you are in the dark about the state of the pandemic and you have to totally shut down society to get infections under control.

    Every discussion we are having about the course of the infection in this country vs that country is conditioned by the totally inadequate sloppy haphazard testing and all the imponderables of selection effects in different healthcare systems. until recently even deaths are likely miscategorized because old people succumb to pneumonia after flu-like symptoms all the time, and there were enough respirators so nobody said anything.

    A tsunami is coming at us and everyone has closed their eyes.

    Replies: @Spanky

    We are in the dark about the state of this pandemic in the US.

    Daughter (30) called and reported a high fever, hacking dry cough, squeezing feeling in her chest and shortness of breath. Told her to call the local hospital. She did. On hold for an hour, no one picked up. Hospital finally called back 6 hours later and asked about her symptoms. Told her she didn’t need to be tested (no sore throat). Her symptoms developed four or five days after she returned from a trip to California flying via LAX and Denver…

    • Replies: @eugyppius
    @Spanky

    The two most common symptoms are simply dry hacking cough and fever. By no means do all cases have a sore throat.

    It is crazy to read that places in the US right now , as we are learning that the pandemic there is far more advanced than we thought, probably at pace with Europe, have such a crap testing game.

    It is like here back in late Feb., when even people with symptoms who could also demonstrate contact with other covid19 cases had to fight for tests, were put on hold for hours when they called a special hotline, it was ridiculous. Patients without contact/travel but all the right symptoms were denied tests, told to go home and take an aspirin, because they did not meet criteria for testing. Then idiot people in the media were saying that Germany had only 18 infections and it was all great.

  86. @Kim
    @Spanky


    Speak for yourself… Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.
     
    If your 103 year old (transparent internet bullshit) granny is at home (also bullshit) and you are caring for her (more bullshit), then that is your business.

    If however, you believe that endless amounts of public resources should be spent on maintaining her - because you have such an overwhelming commitment to human life - then I am sure that you are also very busy campaigning for that 20 mph national speed limit. Because every life is sacred, you know.

    Replies: @Spanky, @Wizard of Oz

    Screw you and your cynical bullshit.

    Granny is 103 and lives at home. Two years ago we put caregivers in the home after she fell in the bathroom. And yes, to me every family member is sacred — Granny, father, mother, daughter and grand-daughters all matter to me. As far I’m concerned, you can play russian roulette with your family members all you want, but stay away from me and mine.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @Just Passing Through
    @Spanky

    You typify the average American, always putting yourself above the community.

    Nobody really has any business living past the age of 75 in my opinion. People should retire at 65, enjoy 10 or so years in the sun and then move on to pastures new.

    I don't get why they don't just let Corona spread, we are always hearing about the 'ageing population' and when the solution to this problem comes along, we try to stop it?

    Replies: @Spanky, @Poco

    , @ken
    @Spanky

    But wouldn't it just be wiser to quarantine Granny rather than shut down society? She wasn't going to march madness anyways.

    Replies: @Spanky

  87. @Cyrano
    Was it just yesterday that they declared the Corona virus a global pandemic? I think that they should rename it – a global pan-demonium-demic.

    Everybody is talking about the negative sides of this corona virus outbreak. I would like to focus on one possible positive influence this virus might have.

    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak. With everybody wearing masks, the robbery employees - after conducting their operations in local corner stores, gas stations and even banks - can very successfully mingle with the general population upon exiting from the venues they like to do their business in, and avoid risky situations associated with their profession – such as being caught and/or being shot or subjected to lengthy prison sentences.

    Replies: @Alfred, @Calculator

    No kidding, last night I went into the bank and it looked like the place had been taken over by criminals. The customers were “unmasked” except for one Chinese gentleman. You are so busted Dude, I thought, obviously a secret agent sent to spread the virus and destroy our financial system. It turned he was just the owner of the local pizza shop making a deposit ! I also noted another customer hurriedly exiting the bank with a large black bag like Robert DeNiro in the movie HEAT. Given the media and blogger induced paranoia it was probably filled with toilet paper. Anyway, thankfully staff behind the counter and desks were all masked but it was a creepy surreal experience.

  88. People with a cavalier “iT’S JuSt lIkE ThE FlU” are presumably more likely to spread it to elderly people, for whom a brush with COVID-19 is equivalent to a round of Russian roulette (mortality is ~1/6 for over 80 year olds).

    Good. I’m going outside for a smoke.

  89. Very good work Anatoly.

    Thanks!

    It would be interesting to see how the whole situation plays out worldwide.

    Just like in the Katastroika’s wake (a little hat tip to Zinoviev), I believe we might add the economic impact to the life expectancy drop.

    “Deaths of despair” should rise in the West, in the developing world the break-up of global supply chains might wreak havoc, more so than COVID-19 itself.

    Overall, worldwide demography should take a hit.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  90. @Redneck farmer
    @Wizard of Oz

    Dude, the majority of people who don't get vaccinated for the flu in America can afford it. They don't want to take the time or don't think the vaccine is going to work or are scared of needles.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz

    Well the cause doesn’t affect my point if there are indeed very different vaccination rates in different First World countries.

  91. @Kratoklastes
    @Carlton Meyer


    Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
     
    First sensible thing in this entire thread - although it could be clarified somewhat (e.g., the total number of infections - reported plus unreported - may be far higher than the official number).

    Also, the last sentence gives the reader the possible impression that unreported cases reduce the mortality rate: it reduces the estimate of the mortality rate (I know that's what you meant, but it's a critical distinction).

    .

    Very slight symptoms in the vast vast majority of cases, means that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the vast vast majority of actually-infected individuals would not have sought medical care - and were therefore not identified as a potential starting point for spread, and were therefore a vector for transmission for the entire length of the infectious stage of their (unreported) case.

    This being the case (it's not remotely arguable that it's not the case: the lack of 'serious' symptoms is an established fact)... the current estimates of the mortality rate are vastly vastly overstated.

    .

    And yet with all these unsequestered, asymptomatic-but-infected people swanning about... 1.3 billion Chinamen has generated ~80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    And a lot of those 80,000 diagnoses were not obtained by testing: they were obtained by a "checklist" approach (like AIDS in Africa, and pretty much any diagnosis from a psychocharlatan).

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    The 'whistleblower' made his initial post on 30 Dec - having seen data on a cluster of 7 cases in his hospital and thinking that this was being covered up. Whether he was correct or not is irrelevant: the point is that for there to have been a 'cluster' identified as a novel, viral, respiratory illness must have taken a week or more.

    Given that all 7 were symptomatic, were they the only cases in Wuhan (or in China) at the time? Why would anyone believe that to be the case?

    I seem to recall that the initial cluster were workers at the wet market: is this the only such place in China?

    What of the movements of other workers - including those who never exhibited symptoms? And go outwards from there... the numbers get very big very quickly if people are interacting and most people are asymptomatic.

    Anyhow... January 20th - 3 weeks after Dr Li Wenliang's chat message - China started to impose controls.

    Notionally, Dr Li contracted the dose that killed him from an asymptomatic glaucoma patient (the 80-something woman displayed symptoms after her treatment). This happened in early January.

    So in early January there were people carrying covid19 who were not identifiable as carriers - they were capable of transmitting the pathogen but didn't have a fever. That is unlikely to have been something that just started happening the day before.

    .

    The only way to work out how widespread this thing actually is, would be to systematically test EVERYBODY - not just people who have symptoms of some form of respiratory illness.

    Consider what it means if you only test people who are symptomatic (or you only test on small, relatively confined populations with a high probability of exposure and a high rate of underling comorbidities).

    To take it outside the current hysteria, consider if you only did breast screens for women over 50 with gigantic lumps on their breasts, and then extrapolated the result to the whole population.

    Your guess at the prevalence of breast cancer would be so ridiculously high that nobody would take you seriously.

    And yet that's what is happening with covid19.

    As we know, though: most women don't have breast cancer.

    If the testing protocol focuses on 'at risk' groups, it guarantees two things: over-estimating prevalence, AND missing a very large proportion of people who actually have the condition.

    Sounds counter-intuitive, but that's how the number shake out.

    .

    So it can be taken either way: in large populations, either
    ① fuck-all people ever get infected and the worst-affected few percent die (that's what the Chinese numbers look like; the Iranian numbers likewise); or...
    ② a very large number of people get infected but show no (or weak) symptoms, and fuck-all of them die.

    .

    ② Is Just like 'flu, "brah", and is the correct answer to the question "What is actually happening?";

    If ① was true, it would be a poor basis for global hysteria (although hysterias seldom have or need 'good' bases). This is why we are told the correct answer is

    ③ a very large number get infected and the worst-affected few percent die.

    ③ is being cynically manipulated to get the following tropes into the heads of dimwitted imbeciles...
    • "Listen to the experts"
    • "Do as you're told"
    • "The situation is changing rapidly, so what you're told might change rapidly - but continue to obey" and
    • "We just have to shovel some wealth to our cronies for a while: turns out they're not rich enough yet."

    Replies: @Calculator, @El Dato, @Justvisiting

    Great comments. Like all the other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up. The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after everyone makes their money and the public gets bored. I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase the panic.

  92. Modeling a 10% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates – the sort of numbers we may expect should it become endemic – reduces US life expectancy to 76.15 years , translating to a reduction of ~2.5 years.

    Modeling a 70% COVID-19 infection scenario with Riou et al. (2020) age-specific mortality rates reduces US life expectancy to 66.79 years, translating to a reduction of a cool ~12 years.

    The current data is not accurate enough to support this.

  93. @Kim
    @Spanky


    Speak for yourself… Granny is 103 and still lives at home, feisty as ever.
     
    If your 103 year old (transparent internet bullshit) granny is at home (also bullshit) and you are caring for her (more bullshit), then that is your business.

    If however, you believe that endless amounts of public resources should be spent on maintaining her - because you have such an overwhelming commitment to human life - then I am sure that you are also very busy campaigning for that 20 mph national speed limit. Because every life is sacred, you know.

    Replies: @Spanky, @Wizard of Oz

    Maybe you haven’t met some very old people. My mother’s youngest sister has just died at 101 and their male first cousin made it to 97, still playing tennis (serving underarm).

    Four or five years ago I had a friend’s father to lunch during his annual visit (Premium Economy) to Australia and, noting that he didn’t need hearing aids or a walking stick, I said “John, you must be 98 now” and received the true reply (verified by public records of his 1930s sporting achievements) that he was 102. He has now died at 107.

  94. @Just Passing Through
    I can't believe Karlin is actually reporting on this massive hoax to the extent that he is.

    This has shades of Iraq WMD panic about it.

    Replies: @JL, @Calculator

    [MORE]

    KArlin has done a great job and should be commended for writing these extensive articles everyday continually beating this hoax oh I mean keeping us abreast of this pandemic. I found his graphs particularly useful and have sent them to Disney as they may come in useful in the design of their next roller coaster. Wheeeeeeeeeeeee !

  95. @utu
    @Alfred

    When I am wrong I do not find it difficult to accept it. I am not wrong in this case.

    Replies: @AP

    I certainly hope so!

  96. But would a drop in life expectancy be a bad thing?

    Like the man on viriculture.com used to say, healthy life =/= long life. We work towards extending one’s lifespan, yet we don’t extend their “health span”. We just extend the period when one is already falling apart. The older you are, the more meds you need, the more healthcare you need etc etc.

    So the longer the lifespan the bigger the load on healthcare and pension funds.

    The main problem is, that our economic and cultural systems are at this point, 90% biologically incompatible with us. A good chunk of our lives we study (especially so when you study something like medicine, i believe at this point it’s for genuine masochists). By the time you get to a nice position in your career you’re probably going to be older than 35. For good birth rates etc that’s unnaceptable.

    So, the solution is to extend the “health-span”. Preferably, you need to slow aging down at least by 10, maybe even 15 years, while keeping the overall lifespan the same. The current way is simply unsustainable

  97. @Carlton Meyer
    For another view, here is a post from another blog:

    A doctor who attended a COVID-related conference in the Billinson medical center in Israel had published some of the key notes, which confirm my opinion that the corona scare is massively exaggerated by many people:

    1)Most infected will only have the symptoms of a common cold (as with 4 other known strains of coronaviruses).
    2)Serious cases - fever.
    3)Fatal cases - mostly elderly above the age of 80 with very weak immune system.
    4)Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
    5)Most infected will self recover and develop higher immunity to the virus.
    6)Transmitted via fluids, not air. So standing in the vicinity of infected is not dangerous, but if they cough while near you it's best to be tested.
    7)Transmission before symptoms appear is possible but extremely low.
    8)Self testing technique involves holding your breath for 10 seconds and see if you have any difficulties.
    9)A Japanese home remedy is to drink every about 15 minutes so that virus fragments in your throat will slide down to the stomach, where the stomach acids will kill them almost instantly.

    Replies: @Anonymous (n), @Kratoklastes, @OscarWildeLoveChild

    I’ve been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate, evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.

    What I don’t is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily, many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public transportation. I don’t get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as they’re saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC, Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.

    Scratching my head.

  98. @Spanky
    @Kim

    Screw you and your cynical bullshit.

    Granny is 103 and lives at home. Two years ago we put caregivers in the home after she fell in the bathroom. And yes, to me every family member is sacred -- Granny, father, mother, daughter and grand-daughters all matter to me. As far I'm concerned, you can play russian roulette with your family members all you want, but stay away from me and mine.

    Replies: @Just Passing Through, @ken

    You typify the average American, always putting yourself above the community.

    Nobody really has any business living past the age of 75 in my opinion. People should retire at 65, enjoy 10 or so years in the sun and then move on to pastures new.

    I don’t get why they don’t just let Corona spread, we are always hearing about the ‘ageing population’ and when the solution to this problem comes along, we try to stop it?

    • Troll: GazaPlanet
    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Just Passing Through

    Good to know you have sociopathic tendencies, will make a note of it.

    FWIW, Granny didn't take any medications until she hit 99 and was diagnosed with high blood pressure. Since she is virtually never ill, and hates going to the doctor, no one knew about it.

    Until you've reached a ripe old age, your take on what constitutes an upper limit age limit really doesn't mean much. Perhaps, when it comes time, you'll follow your own prescription and off yourself as a shining example to all us less enlightened beings. But, somehow, I doubt you'll have the nerve.

    , @Poco
    @Just Passing Through

    I doubt you will volunteer to suicide yourself if you reach 75 and still feel healthy. No, at that point you will find justifications for why it would then be a bad idea.

  99. @for-the-record
    Question: Why are Scandinavian countries (+ Iceland) which have among the highest rates in the world showing so few deaths (0.08%) and serious/critical cases (0.17%)?

    1. They are still in an early phase, and deaths in large numbers will arrive in a few weeks time?

    2. Because of the super-efficiency of Scandinavian health systems? (unlikely since it seems that relatively few are in hospital, and the serious cases are so few).

    3. Better health/resistance of Scandinavians?

    4. Lower genetic receptivity to the infection?

    5. Older people, who are the ones dying, are more naturally socially separated in Scandinavia (e.g., higher percentage in old age facilties where they can be more easily isolated)?

    6. Coronavirus in Scandinavia is somehow different (less severe) than in Southern Europe?

    Replies: @JRB, @Jaakko Raipala, @BeeGee

    It’s 1, 3, 4, not 2, 5 and 6

  100. @Spanky
    @eugyppius

    We are in the dark about the state of this pandemic in the US.

    Daughter (30) called and reported a high fever, hacking dry cough, squeezing feeling in her chest and shortness of breath. Told her to call the local hospital. She did. On hold for an hour, no one picked up. Hospital finally called back 6 hours later and asked about her symptoms. Told her she didn't need to be tested (no sore throat). Her symptoms developed four or five days after she returned from a trip to California flying via LAX and Denver...

    Replies: @eugyppius

    The two most common symptoms are simply dry hacking cough and fever. By no means do all cases have a sore throat.

    It is crazy to read that places in the US right now , as we are learning that the pandemic there is far more advanced than we thought, probably at pace with Europe, have such a crap testing game.

    It is like here back in late Feb., when even people with symptoms who could also demonstrate contact with other covid19 cases had to fight for tests, were put on hold for hours when they called a special hotline, it was ridiculous. Patients without contact/travel but all the right symptoms were denied tests, told to go home and take an aspirin, because they did not meet criteria for testing. Then idiot people in the media were saying that Germany had only 18 infections and it was all great.

    • Agree: Spanky
  101. Conversely, people who are intubated now may suffer permanent, long-term insults on their health, making them more vulnerable to subsequent COVID-19 infections in future years.

    Anatoly, what do you mean by “intubated”? American Heritage Dictionary says: “To insert a tube into (a hollow organ or body passage).” Doesn’t make sense here. Was this a typo?

    But all their efforts would be in vain if just a few (or even one) defeatist, incompetent, or plain stupidly-run countries decline to take the necessary steps, and thereby cut two years off global life expectancy into the indefinite future.

    Aha! The perfect excuse for a one-world state. They should rename this the Globalist-virus.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Digital Samizdat

    Its correct. He is referring to this, as one example:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200228142018.htm


    Ultimately, the authors of this AJR article recommended CT for follow-up in patients recovering from COVID-19 to evaluate long-term or even permanent pulmonary damage, including fibrosis -- as seen in SARS and MERS infections.
     
    From what I've heard from doctors treating Coronavirus - many patients who survive due to life saving tracheal intubation still have unpleasant long term outcomes.
  102. @utu
    @Anonymous (n)

    We need accurate numbers and accurate diagnoses to get the real sense of how unusual is the current situation.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way, @Alfred, @Daniel Chieh

    Its pretty bad in Italy. Even if it doesn’t increase elderly death rates in the absolute(which I doubt), time compression will increase the stress on the system and cause secondary effects.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Daniel Chieh

    "Its pretty bad in Italy." - By what metric? How much of it because of hysteria?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  103. [MORE]

    Pure bullshit.

    The disease is man-made and weak.

    Because it is man-made and weak, it is not the virus you must fear; it is the vaccine, with which they will inject a larger, live dose directly into your vein.

    The panic is a combination of pre-planned collusion and monkey-see-monkey- do.

    They’ve been attempting this nonsense for 40 years, but people didn’t have fear inducers in their hip pockets, during the “killer bee” era.

    You have no friends on tell-a-vision.

    Wash your hands, eat less, don’t smoke, and take vitamins.

    A few old, sick people will die.

    And most importantly; realize that the apocalyptic period began on 3/11/20, so FIND GOD.

    ……….End of Transmission………

  104. @Anatoly Karlin
    Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Really No Shit, @Mark12345, @Jim Christian

    Pessimistic as ever on the West while cheerleading for the “East”; what else is new, AK?

  105. @Digital Samizdat

    Conversely, people who are intubated now may suffer permanent, long-term insults on their health, making them more vulnerable to subsequent COVID-19 infections in future years.
     
    Anatoly, what do you mean by "intubated"? American Heritage Dictionary says: "To insert a tube into (a hollow organ or body passage)." Doesn't make sense here. Was this a typo?

    But all their efforts would be in vain if just a few (or even one) defeatist, incompetent, or plain stupidly-run countries decline to take the necessary steps, and thereby cut two years off global life expectancy into the indefinite future.
     
    Aha! The perfect excuse for a one-world state. They should rename this the Globalist-virus.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Its correct. He is referring to this, as one example:

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200228142018.htm

    Ultimately, the authors of this AJR article recommended CT for follow-up in patients recovering from COVID-19 to evaluate long-term or even permanent pulmonary damage, including fibrosis — as seen in SARS and MERS infections.

    From what I’ve heard from doctors treating Coronavirus – many patients who survive due to life saving tracheal intubation still have unpleasant long term outcomes.

  106. @Alfred
    @Cyrano



    The robbery industry can definitely benefit from this outbreak

    In Italy, the Nigerian prostitution racket is bound to be badly fucked (pun intended). What a shame! So much beauty gone to waste! :-)

    https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2016/08/13/11/italy-sex-work-reuters.jpeg

    Replies: @Truth

    [MORE]

    Intetesting: CV decreases IQ in those not showing symptoms, as well.

  107. @Just Passing Through
    @Spanky

    You typify the average American, always putting yourself above the community.

    Nobody really has any business living past the age of 75 in my opinion. People should retire at 65, enjoy 10 or so years in the sun and then move on to pastures new.

    I don't get why they don't just let Corona spread, we are always hearing about the 'ageing population' and when the solution to this problem comes along, we try to stop it?

    Replies: @Spanky, @Poco

    Good to know you have sociopathic tendencies, will make a note of it.

    FWIW, Granny didn’t take any medications until she hit 99 and was diagnosed with high blood pressure. Since she is virtually never ill, and hates going to the doctor, no one knew about it.

    Until you’ve reached a ripe old age, your take on what constitutes an upper limit age limit really doesn’t mean much. Perhaps, when it comes time, you’ll follow your own prescription and off yourself as a shining example to all us less enlightened beings. But, somehow, I doubt you’ll have the nerve.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  108. @Kim
    @utu

    I wonder how many years will be cut off the life expectancy of people who lose their jobs or businesses because the international economy has been shut down for fear of a bad case of the Chinese sniffles?

    After all, these calculations must be available, right?

    Surely, somewhere in the depths of the Government Accounting Office in Washington there is a triple-locked safe guarded with moving infared beams that can cut through tungsten that contains documents that show the precise value of a human life, calculated by CPAs and organized by age, sex, occupation, and region.

    Why do I say "surely"? Because if not, then on what basis are the idiots in Washington making the decisions that they are making? If they do not have such figures, how can they decide what are acceptable losses, how can they model the impact on the economy in the near and more distant future? Who is expendable and why? And where?

    We must have these calculations, otherwise on what basis, according to what figures and what calculations did Trump decide to shut down travael from Europe? At first the fat nincompoop even announced the shut down of even the transport of goods! Was this decision simply random? Did he toss a coin?

    Please don't tell me this was all decided off figures scribbled on the back of an envelope. Or on the basis of some white House intern's overnight research and subsequent guardily-colored PowerPoint.

    Please don't tell me the place is run on such an unsophisticated and uniformed basis.

    What prices are they putting on various human lives in their decision making? Would we be able to find out through a FOIA application? Somehow, I am thinking not. I think they are making their decisions with one thumb up their butts because they are all cardboard cut-outs and idiots.

    Replies: @utu, @Ludwig

    I think you are a troll.

  109. For The Thinkers Among Us..

    http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=203831

    [MORE]

    To what extent does this differ from COVID-19? Well as they say, experts differ and patients die. Suffice to say that the impact of COVID-19 is little different to that of a typical flu pandemic. The Diamond Princess liner (the ‘Bug Boat’) marooned in San Francisco represents the perfect incubation centre for the spread of the virus. Thousands of people jammed in a small place serviced by a single ventilation system…..it’s virus heaven. Surely all on board are dead by now? Well no. Several people got the decease, but only two, both aged over 80, have died. No children on the boat became sick. As Trump tweeted ‘So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!’

    A fair point Donald. The reaction seems to be utterly and totally disproportionate to the risk. And as I’ve said on many an occasion, when all official information sources march in lock-step you can reasonably assume some sort of mind-fuck is underway. But if so what kind could COVID-19 represent? I can only speculate but a few possibilities present themselves. (Remember I’m referring to the reaction here, not the virus itself). For a start the economic impact of the panic will be considerable. Stocks and bonds will crash precipitously. Millions of investors will be ruined. Nobody knows how far the drop can go. Well that might not be true. Because there are always a small number of people, Special People you could call them I suppose, who do know the story. Such people could end up buying assets for a fraction of their true worth. It’s happened before on multiple occasions. Then there’s Big Pharma which is sitting on a potential gold mine should a miracle cure be discovered leading to a bountiful future pf mass mandatory inoculations. (Can’t have a repeat of COVID, can we?’) Or maybe it could be a social control experiment given that it’s perfect Hegelian Dialectic (problem/reaction/solution) material for getting citizens to cede still more of their freedoms. Is it part of the War On Cash, or could it be a dry run for a massive nation-wide lock-down? Or could it be a bio-weapon to wipe out those pesky old folk hogging so many medial resources?

    • Replies: @Calculator
    @Johnny Walker Read



    For the thinkers among us ?? Dude, you are addressing a very small percentage. I bet you are one of those optimists who truly believe that what goes on in most people's heads is thinking. You got to stop rolling your weed in pages from Norman Vincent Peale's books. When the media and Covid 19 bloggers and fanatics get going the reason and thinking flee and only panic and fear mongering remain to save the day

    Replies: @Johnny Walker Read

  110. The American opiates crisis and the Russian 1990s crisis are akin … can anyone guess what the common denominator is?

  111. @Daniel Chieh
    @utu

    Its pretty bad in Italy. Even if it doesn't increase elderly death rates in the absolute(which I doubt), time compression will increase the stress on the system and cause secondary effects.

    Replies: @utu

    “Its pretty bad in Italy.” – By what metric? How much of it because of hysteria?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @utu

    Besides with Japanese NEETs, does this happen regularly?

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/italian-woman-quarantined-with-husbands-body-for-30-hours-after-he-died-of-coronavirus/


    The woman lives in the northwestern coastal province of Borghetto Santo Spirito, west of Genoa.

    Mayor Giancarlo Canepa confirmed the story to CNN, saying, "Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning."
     
    And another one:

    When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

    Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

     

    Replies: @utu, @utu

  112. @utu
    @Daniel Chieh

    "Its pretty bad in Italy." - By what metric? How much of it because of hysteria?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Besides with Japanese NEETs, does this happen regularly?

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/italian-woman-quarantined-with-husbands-body-for-30-hours-after-he-died-of-coronavirus/

    The woman lives in the northwestern coastal province of Borghetto Santo Spirito, west of Genoa.

    Mayor Giancarlo Canepa confirmed the story to CNN, saying, “Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning.”

    And another one:

    When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

    Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Daniel Chieh

    Bad working system. Human factor. Panic. Hysteria.

    , @utu
    @Daniel Chieh

    Few quotes from

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9


    "...the percentage of patients admitted to intensive care units reported daily in Italy, from March 1, up until March 11, was consistently between 9% and 11% of patients who were actively infected."

    "If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020."

    "Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020."

    "...we can assume that we will need approximately 4000 beds in intensive care units during the worst period of infection, which is expected to occur in about 4 weeks from March 11. This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in total. "

    "We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than 2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy."
     
    And age mortality profile

    "Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men)."

     

  113. [MORE]

    Thought it was the job of the dumbed-down MSM to spread hysterical stories about Corona, never dreamed UNZ.com would join the pack.

    • Replies: @Just Passing Through
    @Greg Bacon



    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Replies: @Greg Bacon, @Cal Hoyle, @Matt Hoyle

  114. @Daniel Chieh
    @utu

    Besides with Japanese NEETs, does this happen regularly?

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/italian-woman-quarantined-with-husbands-body-for-30-hours-after-he-died-of-coronavirus/


    The woman lives in the northwestern coastal province of Borghetto Santo Spirito, west of Genoa.

    Mayor Giancarlo Canepa confirmed the story to CNN, saying, "Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning."
     
    And another one:

    When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

    Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

     

    Replies: @utu, @utu

    Bad working system. Human factor. Panic. Hysteria.

  115. @Fiendly Neighbourhood Terrorist
    You've forgotten that more elderly dead translate into lower social security and pension fund expenses and hence more profits for the getting, so certain people in certain countries have a vested interest in actually supporting the spread of Coronavirus. It is also an excellent distraction from other things that they are up to.

    Personally, and I'm a medical professional, I'll say this: all viruses eventually burn out and reappear in a less virulent form. I do not see how COVID-19 is different from that.

    Replies: @ken

    Exactly. We have to prevent the 75+ crowd from dying from this so they can die of something else within the next couple of years….why?

    • Troll: utu
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @ken

    Because not everyone over 75 has stopped contributing. For example US presidential candidates.

    At a 1/5 death rate, there is a 1/2 chance of one of Trump, Biden and Sanders dying if infected. There is a 1/3 chance of one of two presidential candidates over 70 dying if infected.

    Replies: @Kim

  116. Measles R(0) = 18. Herd immunity kicks in at 90% resistant. Well established.
    Covid-19 R(0) = 4 Herd immunity kicks in at 60% resistant. Calculation result seen today.

    I guess 70% herd resistance discussed by Merkel signals a near death experience for Covid-19

    Those under 60 who die, certainly under 50, are already unhealthy. If you are healthy and still concerned, do not board an automobile; it is too hazardous.

    It is the duty of every healthy person under 40 not living with an over 60 year old to go out and get infected. The old and ill need to be sheltered until there are proven anti virals (Summer?) and vaccines (Christmas?). Maybe the Chinese will save us old folk and accelerate those schedules.

    How come Chinese medicine is so well prepared? Were all those engineers who ran things married to doctors and nurses? Or is recouping R&D costs unecessary in the Chinese medical system.

    Non woven vaccuum cleaner bags use the same material as N95(US)/FFP2 (world) if you want to make a respirator but if you are healthy it is better to catch it now. You will be more resistant to later more lethal mutations should they come.

    At a 1/5 death rate, there is a 1/2 chance of one of Trump, Biden and Sanders dying if infected. There is a 1/3 chance of one of two presidential candidates over 70 dying if infected.

    Welsh cases climbing at the established 33% a day.

    I blame global warming. Bat population explosion!

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Philip Owen


    How come Chinese medicine is so well prepared? Were all those engineers who ran things married to doctors and nurses? Or is recouping R&D costs unecessary in the Chinese medical system.
     
    Construction-industrial complex. See also: ghost cities.

    Unnecessary capacity is part and parcel of the system. Perhaps this time it was worth something.
  117. @ken
    @Fiendly Neighbourhood Terrorist

    Exactly. We have to prevent the 75+ crowd from dying from this so they can die of something else within the next couple of years....why?

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Because not everyone over 75 has stopped contributing. For example US presidential candidates.

    At a 1/5 death rate, there is a 1/2 chance of one of Trump, Biden and Sanders dying if infected. There is a 1/3 chance of one of two presidential candidates over 70 dying if infected.

    • Replies: @Kim
    @Philip Owen


    Because not everyone over 75 has stopped contributing. For example US presidential candidates.
     
    I think that we must have different definitions of "contributing".
  118. @Greg Bacon


    Thought it was the job of the dumbed-down MSM to spread hysterical stories about Corona, never dreamed UNZ.com would join the pack.

    Replies: @Just Passing Through

    [MORE]

    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    • Replies: @Greg Bacon
    @Just Passing Through

    Watch the 2011 movie, "Contagion," that has a nasty bug that starts in Hong Kong, rushes around the world, killing tens of millions...and was caused by a bat.

    Amazing how Hollywood can dope those scenarios out!

    I agree that this Corona is a US man-made bio-weapon, as its been called a 'branch' of Corona, and not the tree. In other words, it didn't get there by itself.

    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they'd hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don't think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    , @Cal Hoyle
    @Just Passing Through


    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.
     
    Bat soup? Nah.

    From Nature, November 16, 2015:



    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews

    “A lab-made bat coronavirus related to SARS has been shown to infect human cells.”

    An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November [2015], scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them...
     

    Replies: @El Dato

    , @Matt Hoyle
    @Just Passing Through


    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.
     
    Bat soup? Nah.

    From Nature, November 16, 2015:



    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews

    “A lab-made bat coronavirus related to SARS has been shown to infect human cells.”

    An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November [2015], scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them...
     
  119. @Philip Owen
    Measles R(0) = 18. Herd immunity kicks in at 90% resistant. Well established.
    Covid-19 R(0) = 4 Herd immunity kicks in at 60% resistant. Calculation result seen today.

    I guess 70% herd resistance discussed by Merkel signals a near death experience for Covid-19

    Those under 60 who die, certainly under 50, are already unhealthy. If you are healthy and still concerned, do not board an automobile; it is too hazardous.

    It is the duty of every healthy person under 40 not living with an over 60 year old to go out and get infected. The old and ill need to be sheltered until there are proven anti virals (Summer?) and vaccines (Christmas?). Maybe the Chinese will save us old folk and accelerate those schedules.

    How come Chinese medicine is so well prepared? Were all those engineers who ran things married to doctors and nurses? Or is recouping R&D costs unecessary in the Chinese medical system.

    Non woven vaccuum cleaner bags use the same material as N95(US)/FFP2 (world) if you want to make a respirator but if you are healthy it is better to catch it now. You will be more resistant to later more lethal mutations should they come.

    At a 1/5 death rate, there is a 1/2 chance of one of Trump, Biden and Sanders dying if infected. There is a 1/3 chance of one of two presidential candidates over 70 dying if infected.

    Welsh cases climbing at the established 33% a day.

    I blame global warming. Bat population explosion!

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    How come Chinese medicine is so well prepared? Were all those engineers who ran things married to doctors and nurses? Or is recouping R&D costs unecessary in the Chinese medical system.

    Construction-industrial complex. See also: ghost cities.

    Unnecessary capacity is part and parcel of the system. Perhaps this time it was worth something.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  120. @Alfred
    @nickels


    The integral of cases under both curves is the same but more deaths under the peaked.
     
    If this is indeed the case, the graph is incorrect. Quarantining does work. Wuhan is proof of that.

    Replies: @utu, @nickels

    All this is missing the point.
    Sliwing the RATE of infections is what decreases the total number of deaths because of the aforementioned reason.

    The virus is going to infect a sharfload of people whether measures are in place or not.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @nickels


    The virus is going to infect a sharfload of people whether measures are in place or not.
     
    Not if you isolate the infected. Wuhan proved that conclusively.
  121. @Daniel Chieh
    @utu

    Besides with Japanese NEETs, does this happen regularly?

    https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/italian-woman-quarantined-with-husbands-body-for-30-hours-after-he-died-of-coronavirus/


    The woman lives in the northwestern coastal province of Borghetto Santo Spirito, west of Genoa.

    Mayor Giancarlo Canepa confirmed the story to CNN, saying, "Yes, it is true she is still there with the body and we won’t be able to remove it until Wednesday morning."
     
    And another one:

    When his sister died after contracting the novel coronavirus, Luca Franzese thought that things couldn’t get much worse.

    Then, for more than 36 hours, the Italian actor and mixed martial arts trainer was trapped at home with Teresa Franzese’s decaying body, unable to find a funeral home that would bury her.

     

    Replies: @utu, @utu

    Few quotes from

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9

    “…the percentage of patients admitted to intensive care units reported daily in Italy, from March 1, up until March 11, was consistently between 9% and 11% of patients who were actively infected.”

    “If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020.”

    “Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020.”

    “…we can assume that we will need approximately 4000 beds in intensive care units during the worst period of infection, which is expected to occur in about 4 weeks from March 11. This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in total. ”

    “We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than 2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy.”

    And age mortality profile

    “Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).”

  122. @Just Passing Through
    @Spanky

    You typify the average American, always putting yourself above the community.

    Nobody really has any business living past the age of 75 in my opinion. People should retire at 65, enjoy 10 or so years in the sun and then move on to pastures new.

    I don't get why they don't just let Corona spread, we are always hearing about the 'ageing population' and when the solution to this problem comes along, we try to stop it?

    Replies: @Spanky, @Poco

    I doubt you will volunteer to suicide yourself if you reach 75 and still feel healthy. No, at that point you will find justifications for why it would then be a bad idea.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  123. @Johnny Walker Read
    For The Thinkers Among Us..

    http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=203831


    To what extent does this differ from COVID-19? Well as they say, experts differ and patients die. Suffice to say that the impact of COVID-19 is little different to that of a typical flu pandemic. The Diamond Princess liner (the ‘Bug Boat’) marooned in San Francisco represents the perfect incubation centre for the spread of the virus. Thousands of people jammed in a small place serviced by a single ventilation system…..it’s virus heaven. Surely all on board are dead by now? Well no. Several people got the decease, but only two, both aged over 80, have died. No children on the boat became sick. As Trump tweeted ‘So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!’

    A fair point Donald. The reaction seems to be utterly and totally disproportionate to the risk. And as I’ve said on many an occasion, when all official information sources march in lock-step you can reasonably assume some sort of mind-fuck is underway. But if so what kind could COVID-19 represent? I can only speculate but a few possibilities present themselves. (Remember I’m referring to the reaction here, not the virus itself). For a start the economic impact of the panic will be considerable. Stocks and bonds will crash precipitously. Millions of investors will be ruined. Nobody knows how far the drop can go. Well that might not be true. Because there are always a small number of people, Special People you could call them I suppose, who do know the story. Such people could end up buying assets for a fraction of their true worth. It’s happened before on multiple occasions. Then there’s Big Pharma which is sitting on a potential gold mine should a miracle cure be discovered leading to a bountiful future pf mass mandatory inoculations. (Can’t have a repeat of COVID, can we?’) Or maybe it could be a social control experiment given that it’s perfect Hegelian Dialectic (problem/reaction/solution) material for getting citizens to cede still more of their freedoms. Is it part of the War On Cash, or could it be a dry run for a massive nation-wide lock-down? Or could it be a bio-weapon to wipe out those pesky old folk hogging so many medial resources?
     

    Replies: @Calculator

    [MORE]

    For the thinkers among us ?? Dude, you are addressing a very small percentage. I bet you are one of those optimists who truly believe that what goes on in most people’s heads is thinking. You got to stop rolling your weed in pages from Norman Vincent Peale’s books. When the media and Covid 19 bloggers and fanatics get going the reason and thinking flee and only panic and fear mongering remain to save the day

    • Replies: @Johnny Walker Read
    @Calculator



    When the media and Covid 19 bloggers and fanatics get going the reason and thinking flee and only panic and fear mongering remain to save the day
    Uhhhh...Pretty sure that is what the body of the article I linked to had to say.
    Here's one that "splains it all a lil' clearer". The illness in China had many, many causes, of which CV19 was probably only one of those causes.
    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/Telomeric-Poisoning-Exacerbates-Coronavirus.html
    P.S. - Nothing but Zig-Zags here bro, we may be po, but we ain't ghetto...

  124. AP says:
    @utu
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    "... overwhelmed." - Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need. Narcissistic mamoni killing their parents.


    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf

    The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

    Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).
     

    Replies: @Kim, @AP

    “… overwhelmed.” – Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need.

    A good argument. The problem is that Italy had been taking the issue very lightly until it hit them (there was the case of that mayor going to a pub and urging others to do so – he now has the virus). So why no hysteria before, and such deadly mass hysteria now? This suggests that there must be at least a significant kernel of truth underlying the phenomenon.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @AP

    Italy has done the worst approach of ignoring it and then hysteria. Strangely Trump seems to also approve that approach.

  125. @Wizard of Oz
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I loook forward to a comprehensive precise reply to Pft's Comment #29.

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon? AND can you calculate the consequences of different rates of flu vaccination in different countries? I suspect that many of those that die of flu in the US only die because of the cost of vaccination.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @another anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon?

    It depends. How based and redpilled you are?

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @Oscar Peterson
    @another anon


    I'd rather take my chances with the virus than consume an Israeli vaccine
     
    Don't blame you at all, but you don't have to make that choice!

    A Canadian company says that it has produced a COVID-19 vaccine just 20 days after receiving the coronavirus’s genetic sequence, using a unique technology that they soon hope to submit for FDA approval.

    Medicago CEO Bruce Clark said his company could produce as many as 10 million doses a month. If regulatory hurdles can be cleared, he said in a Thursday interview, the vaccine could start to become available in November 2021.

    An Israeli research lab has also claimed to have created a vaccine. But Clark says his company’s technique, which has already been proven effective in producing vaccines for seasonal flu, is more reliable and easier to scale.

    “There are a couple of others who are claiming that they have — well, we will call them vaccine[s]” for COVID-19, he said. “But they’re different technologies. Some are RNA- or DNA-based vaccines that have not yet been proven in any indication yet, let alone this one. Hopefully, they’ll be successful.”
     
    https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/breaking-weve-got-vaccine-says-pentagon-funded-company/163739/?oref=d-river

    And it's all thanks to DoD:

    In 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, put together a $100 million program dubbed Blue Angel to look into new forms of vaccine discovery and production. A big chunk of that money went to Medicago to build a facility in North Carolina, where they showed that they could find a vaccine in just 20 days, then rapidly scale up production.
     
    But it won't be ready for actual people for 18 months.
  126. @Spanky
    @Kim

    Screw you and your cynical bullshit.

    Granny is 103 and lives at home. Two years ago we put caregivers in the home after she fell in the bathroom. And yes, to me every family member is sacred -- Granny, father, mother, daughter and grand-daughters all matter to me. As far I'm concerned, you can play russian roulette with your family members all you want, but stay away from me and mine.

    Replies: @Just Passing Through, @ken

    But wouldn’t it just be wiser to quarantine Granny rather than shut down society? She wasn’t going to march madness anyways.

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @ken

    Well, considering she doesn't drive and rarely gets out anymore, she is already pretty much socially isolated in her own home. The most obvious ways she's likely to be exposed are her caregivers (3 working alternating 12 hour shifts), and my parents (80s), who suffer from extreme normality bias (it just can't happen here) and a belief the MSM (well, Fox at least) is trustworthy. They eat out every night these days, mostly at chain restaurants located just off the interstate. Funny thing is, my father is *extremely* afraid of dying, but doesn't recognize Covid-19 as a personal threat. OTOH, he's all jacked up about stock market gyrations...

    Replies: @ken

  127. [MORE]

    Feb 23, 2020 Coronavirus Feb 18th #3 by Dr. John Bergman

    Mar 12, 2020 CORONAVIRUS: THE PHARMA PANDEMIC

    Has Big Pharma Primed us for a COVID Disaster?; ICAN’s CDC Lawsuit Under Attack; FOIAs Reveal Shocking behavior; ICAN’s Next Big Move.

  128. OK, us old farts dropping dead will be fabulous for the greater good. Just think social security trust. Here is the problem that most Americans aren’t considering. The average American under 55 crowd is mass consumers of pharmaceutical drugs. Doesn’t mean they have preexisting conditions going into this pandemic? Doesn’t that make them more likely susceptible for both getting the flu, but also dying?

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Old and Grumpy

    Of course old farts sacrificing themselves and dropping dead to "save" social security is a good idea, as long as you're not an old fart...

    It's funny, whenever I go to the doctor these days (and that's as rarely as possible), it's considered remarkable that I am not taking any prescribed or OTC daily "medications".

  129. @Wizard of Oz
    @utu

    I'm unable to find the author's comment a out the plagiarism. Where did you find that?

    Replies: @utu, @Sparkon

    I guess utu forgot where he read about pft’s plagiarism bust, but I believe ’twas I who pointed it out:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/arguably-wrong-potential-american-deaths-range-from-5k-to-5-million/#comment-3767706

  130. @another anon
    @Wizard of Oz


    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon?

     

    It depends. How based and redpilled you are?

    https://twitter.com/RmSalih/status/1238080437370699776

    Replies: @Oscar Peterson

    I’d rather take my chances with the virus than consume an Israeli vaccine

    Don’t blame you at all, but you don’t have to make that choice!

    A Canadian company says that it has produced a COVID-19 vaccine just 20 days after receiving the coronavirus’s genetic sequence, using a unique technology that they soon hope to submit for FDA approval.

    Medicago CEO Bruce Clark said his company could produce as many as 10 million doses a month. If regulatory hurdles can be cleared, he said in a Thursday interview, the vaccine could start to become available in November 2021.

    An Israeli research lab has also claimed to have created a vaccine. But Clark says his company’s technique, which has already been proven effective in producing vaccines for seasonal flu, is more reliable and easier to scale.

    “There are a couple of others who are claiming that they have — well, we will call them vaccine[s]” for COVID-19, he said. “But they’re different technologies. Some are RNA- or DNA-based vaccines that have not yet been proven in any indication yet, let alone this one. Hopefully, they’ll be successful.”

    https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/03/breaking-weve-got-vaccine-says-pentagon-funded-company/163739/?oref=d-river

    And it’s all thanks to DoD:

    In 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, put together a $100 million program dubbed Blue Angel to look into new forms of vaccine discovery and production. A big chunk of that money went to Medicago to build a facility in North Carolina, where they showed that they could find a vaccine in just 20 days, then rapidly scale up production.

    But it won’t be ready for actual people for 18 months.

  131. @AP
    @utu


    “… overwhelmed.” – Is it possible that because of hysteria too many youngish people seek help in hospitals? And they are the main reason why the old are dying. They receive help that they do not need.
     
    A good argument. The problem is that Italy had been taking the issue very lightly until it hit them (there was the case of that mayor going to a pub and urging others to do so - he now has the virus). So why no hysteria before, and such deadly mass hysteria now? This suggests that there must be at least a significant kernel of truth underlying the phenomenon.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    Italy has done the worst approach of ignoring it and then hysteria. Strangely Trump seems to also approve that approach.

  132. @Wizard of Oz
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I loook forward to a comprehensive precise reply to Pft's Comment #29.

    Also, what happens when you factor in the high probability of an effective vaccine being developed soon? AND can you calculate the consequences of different rates of flu vaccination in different countries? I suspect that many of those that die of flu in the US only die because of the cost of vaccination.

    Replies: @Redneck farmer, @another anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    I think it is more or less addressed in the article.

    The first set of age-specific mortality estimates is based on data from Diamond Princess, where 100% of people were tested.

    From the abstract of the second study, which arrives at similar figures and was used in this post’s life expectancy calculations:

    We estimated the age-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) by fitting a transmission model to data from China, accounting for underreporting of cases and the time delay to death. Overall CFR among all infections was 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) and increased considerably for the elderly, highlighting the expected burden for populations with further expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic around the globe.

  133. @Just Passing Through
    @Greg Bacon



    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Replies: @Greg Bacon, @Cal Hoyle, @Matt Hoyle

    Watch the 2011 movie, “Contagion,” that has a nasty bug that starts in Hong Kong, rushes around the world, killing tens of millions…and was caused by a bat.

    Amazing how Hollywood can dope those scenarios out!

    I agree that this Corona is a US man-made bio-weapon, as its been called a ‘branch’ of Corona, and not the tree. In other words, it didn’t get there by itself.

    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they’d hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don’t think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.

    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Greg Bacon


    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they’d hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don’t think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.
     

    We Americans didn't do a damn thing and you have no evidence otherwise (and yes, I've read the many assertions here at Sinophile Central, but as of yet, still nothing other than "The U.S. did it cause I say so!").

    China is the one that has sent us children's toys coated with lead paint. China is the one that has sent us defective insulin. China is the one that sends us Fentanyl. I would say that the Chinese are getting a taste of their own medicine. They are doing the very opposite of "quite nicely," no matter what your fevered leftwing fantasies tell you.

    It shows how sick some people here are. The godless, communist, psychopathic Chinese screw the pooch, and we get yet another rendition of It's all Americas' Fault, sung in the key of dickhead minor.

    , @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Greg Bacon

    The stock market went up a thousand points today, smart guy. You got any more expert predictions?

    Replies: @Spanky

  134. @sudden death
    Trudeau soon is going to be the first head of state with coronavirus! Somewhat surprised, thought that Cambodian kinda dictator will get it sooner after greeting that cruiseliner. Also what kind of special idiots are masquerading as "doctors" in Canada for advising not to test their PM since he has no symptoms so far?:


    https://twitter.com/emilyrauhala/status/1238282233863180296

    Replies: @LondonBob, @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin

    Looks like Bolsonaro beat him to the punch.

    • Replies: @neutral
    @Anatoly Karlin

    As I predicted this Bolsonaro turned out to be just another Israel firster zionist. I remember may people here saying instead how he would be a great for white interests... One can never be pro white if one is pro jew, there is simply no evidence for this (and obviously lots of evidence for the opposite).

    I hope he falls in the 4% group.

    , @sudden death
    @Anatoly Karlin

    lol, as Bolsonaro was meeting with Trump last weekend :) but I saw some quick denials also, so fog of virus war just gets thicker.

    , @yakushimaru
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Both will ofc get great medical care.
     
    One of the news items that spooked me early on was the death of Li Wenliang, the so called whistleblower. He's young & healthy, and, based on what people know about communist and Chinese mentality, nobody in China wanted to see him die. That is to say, the best med care must have been provided, and yet he died. So, a lot depends on luck.

    Replies: @Alfred

  135. @Just Passing Through
    @Greg Bacon



    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Replies: @Greg Bacon, @Cal Hoyle, @Matt Hoyle

    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Bat soup? Nah.

    From Nature, November 16, 2015:

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews

    “A lab-made bat coronavirus related to SARS has been shown to infect human cells.”

    An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November [2015], scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them…

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @Cal Hoyle

    Ok, so if you give this chimera virus to the virologist, would he say "that's engineered!" or not notice anything abnormal?

    Replies: @utu

  136. @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    Looks like Bolsonaro beat him to the punch.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1238479778669301760

    Replies: @neutral, @sudden death, @yakushimaru

    As I predicted this Bolsonaro turned out to be just another Israel firster zionist. I remember may people here saying instead how he would be a great for white interests… One can never be pro white if one is pro jew, there is simply no evidence for this (and obviously lots of evidence for the opposite).

    I hope he falls in the 4% group.

  137. @Kratoklastes
    @Carlton Meyer


    Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
     
    First sensible thing in this entire thread - although it could be clarified somewhat (e.g., the total number of infections - reported plus unreported - may be far higher than the official number).

    Also, the last sentence gives the reader the possible impression that unreported cases reduce the mortality rate: it reduces the estimate of the mortality rate (I know that's what you meant, but it's a critical distinction).

    .

    Very slight symptoms in the vast vast majority of cases, means that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the vast vast majority of actually-infected individuals would not have sought medical care - and were therefore not identified as a potential starting point for spread, and were therefore a vector for transmission for the entire length of the infectious stage of their (unreported) case.

    This being the case (it's not remotely arguable that it's not the case: the lack of 'serious' symptoms is an established fact)... the current estimates of the mortality rate are vastly vastly overstated.

    .

    And yet with all these unsequestered, asymptomatic-but-infected people swanning about... 1.3 billion Chinamen has generated ~80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    And a lot of those 80,000 diagnoses were not obtained by testing: they were obtained by a "checklist" approach (like AIDS in Africa, and pretty much any diagnosis from a psychocharlatan).

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    The 'whistleblower' made his initial post on 30 Dec - having seen data on a cluster of 7 cases in his hospital and thinking that this was being covered up. Whether he was correct or not is irrelevant: the point is that for there to have been a 'cluster' identified as a novel, viral, respiratory illness must have taken a week or more.

    Given that all 7 were symptomatic, were they the only cases in Wuhan (or in China) at the time? Why would anyone believe that to be the case?

    I seem to recall that the initial cluster were workers at the wet market: is this the only such place in China?

    What of the movements of other workers - including those who never exhibited symptoms? And go outwards from there... the numbers get very big very quickly if people are interacting and most people are asymptomatic.

    Anyhow... January 20th - 3 weeks after Dr Li Wenliang's chat message - China started to impose controls.

    Notionally, Dr Li contracted the dose that killed him from an asymptomatic glaucoma patient (the 80-something woman displayed symptoms after her treatment). This happened in early January.

    So in early January there were people carrying covid19 who were not identifiable as carriers - they were capable of transmitting the pathogen but didn't have a fever. That is unlikely to have been something that just started happening the day before.

    .

    The only way to work out how widespread this thing actually is, would be to systematically test EVERYBODY - not just people who have symptoms of some form of respiratory illness.

    Consider what it means if you only test people who are symptomatic (or you only test on small, relatively confined populations with a high probability of exposure and a high rate of underling comorbidities).

    To take it outside the current hysteria, consider if you only did breast screens for women over 50 with gigantic lumps on their breasts, and then extrapolated the result to the whole population.

    Your guess at the prevalence of breast cancer would be so ridiculously high that nobody would take you seriously.

    And yet that's what is happening with covid19.

    As we know, though: most women don't have breast cancer.

    If the testing protocol focuses on 'at risk' groups, it guarantees two things: over-estimating prevalence, AND missing a very large proportion of people who actually have the condition.

    Sounds counter-intuitive, but that's how the number shake out.

    .

    So it can be taken either way: in large populations, either
    ① fuck-all people ever get infected and the worst-affected few percent die (that's what the Chinese numbers look like; the Iranian numbers likewise); or...
    ② a very large number of people get infected but show no (or weak) symptoms, and fuck-all of them die.

    .

    ② Is Just like 'flu, "brah", and is the correct answer to the question "What is actually happening?";

    If ① was true, it would be a poor basis for global hysteria (although hysterias seldom have or need 'good' bases). This is why we are told the correct answer is

    ③ a very large number get infected and the worst-affected few percent die.

    ③ is being cynically manipulated to get the following tropes into the heads of dimwitted imbeciles...
    • "Listen to the experts"
    • "Do as you're told"
    • "The situation is changing rapidly, so what you're told might change rapidly - but continue to obey" and
    • "We just have to shovel some wealth to our cronies for a while: turns out they're not rich enough yet."

    Replies: @Calculator, @El Dato, @Justvisiting

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    This is very wrong.

    They shut down the area *7 days* after the first “4 unusual cases of pneumonia”

    Pic from that article on medium “Why you must act now” (alias http://bit.ly/38EIQ2g )

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @El Dato

    That graph of Italy I posted earlier showed that date of symptom onset has also plummeted and they are firmly on the other side of the peak. Obviously there is the lag of treatment and diagnosis but they could start removing the more extreme restrictions pretty soon. Given the limited number of deaths that is pretty encouraging.

  138. @ken
    @Spanky

    But wouldn't it just be wiser to quarantine Granny rather than shut down society? She wasn't going to march madness anyways.

    Replies: @Spanky

    Well, considering she doesn’t drive and rarely gets out anymore, she is already pretty much socially isolated in her own home. The most obvious ways she’s likely to be exposed are her caregivers (3 working alternating 12 hour shifts), and my parents (80s), who suffer from extreme normality bias (it just can’t happen here) and a belief the MSM (well, Fox at least) is trustworthy. They eat out every night these days, mostly at chain restaurants located just off the interstate. Funny thing is, my father is *extremely* afraid of dying, but doesn’t recognize Covid-19 as a personal threat. OTOH, he’s all jacked up about stock market gyrations…

    • Replies: @ken
    @Spanky

    Hopefully your parents at least wash their hands before getting near Granny and avoid hacking near her face.

  139. @Just Passing Through
    @Greg Bacon



    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Replies: @Greg Bacon, @Cal Hoyle, @Matt Hoyle

    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.

    Bat soup? Nah.

    From Nature, November 16, 2015:

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews

    “A lab-made bat coronavirus related to SARS has been shown to infect human cells.”

    An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November [2015], scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them…

  140. @for-the-record
    Question: Why are Scandinavian countries (+ Iceland) which have among the highest rates in the world showing so few deaths (0.08%) and serious/critical cases (0.17%)?

    1. They are still in an early phase, and deaths in large numbers will arrive in a few weeks time?

    2. Because of the super-efficiency of Scandinavian health systems? (unlikely since it seems that relatively few are in hospital, and the serious cases are so few).

    3. Better health/resistance of Scandinavians?

    4. Lower genetic receptivity to the infection?

    5. Older people, who are the ones dying, are more naturally socially separated in Scandinavia (e.g., higher percentage in old age facilties where they can be more easily isolated)?

    6. Coronavirus in Scandinavia is somehow different (less severe) than in Southern Europe?

    Replies: @JRB, @Jaakko Raipala, @BeeGee

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you’ll be hearing a totally different story soon. All has gone to hell and the health care system is mostly irrelevant now as they’re just telling people to go home and take care of themselves. Case numbers are also becoming meaningless as they’ve largerly stopped testing people.

    We had cases early on through Chinese tourists but that was contained with quarantines and travel blocks. So there’s a big time lag between the first cases and the epidemic going out of control now that people brought it in from Italy (with the governments doing nothing at all to prevent it). The Chinese tourists also mainly brought it to Lapland so it was handled by the tourist industry and the rednecks up there who still have some remnant of unpozzed government.

    Now that it’s spreading in Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo it’s all being handled by some of the most incompetent officials that you can find in any first world country. If anything good comes out of this crisis, it might prick the Nordic model bubble. People imagine that we still have good governance when the past few decades have been just one relentless march to poz singularity of promoting people solely on progressive ideological credentials. Acccess to health care is also not actually that good unless you have a lot of money or one of the prog idpol paths past the long queues.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @Jaakko Raipala

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you’ll be hearing a totally different story soon.

    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).

    Similarly, Scandinavia is today where Italy was on 3 March, but on that date Italy had 79 deaths.

    Third example: Scandinavia has more cases today than Spain on 11 March, but on that date Spain had 55 deaths.

    So it seems to me that even if the number of cases in Scandinavia is skyrocketing, it is not certain (yet) that the number of deaths will.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @last straw

  141. The cost of doing nothing includes permanent vilification of those responsible, as happened with
    Her Majesty’s Government during the Potato Famine of the 1840’s.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Uncle Remus

    Only losers with inferiority complexes hold grudges. Winners just move on to their next great achievement.

    Replies: @Kim

  142. @Cal Hoyle
    @Just Passing Through


    In this age, people have the ability to choose their own version of reality and disseminate it widely.

    I am guessing Unz is running these stories to get the America bad, China good angle in as this is obviously a US bioweapon and is totally not caused by Chinese eating wild animals that are stacked up in cages in open air markets while defecating and urinating on the animals below.
     
    Bat soup? Nah.

    From Nature, November 16, 2015:



    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews

    “A lab-made bat coronavirus related to SARS has been shown to infect human cells.”

    An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    In an article published in Nature Medicine on 9 November [2015], scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them...
     

    Replies: @El Dato

    Ok, so if you give this chimera virus to the virologist, would he say “that’s engineered!” or not notice anything abnormal?

    • Replies: @utu
    @El Dato

    Probably not if the bioengineering is done with finesse. You find a known virus in nature (in the database of known viruses) that requires minimum number of modifications to obtain the desired gain of function. Furthermore you can create intermediate stage viruses and introduce them into the nature (some animals) and then have your trusted scientists to discover them and upload them to the database of known viruses. So when the culprit virus is identified during the epidemic and cross checked against what is in the database it may appear as it is a product of natural random mutations from its known precursors.

  143. @El Dato
    @Kratoklastes


    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).
     
    This is very wrong.

    They shut down the area *7 days* after the first "4 unusual cases of pneumonia"

    https://i.imgur.com/ObnnbXg.png

    Pic from that article on medium "Why you must act now" (alias http://bit.ly/38EIQ2g )

    Replies: @LondonBob

    That graph of Italy I posted earlier showed that date of symptom onset has also plummeted and they are firmly on the other side of the peak. Obviously there is the lag of treatment and diagnosis but they could start removing the more extreme restrictions pretty soon. Given the limited number of deaths that is pretty encouraging.

  144. @Uncle Remus
    The cost of doing nothing includes permanent vilification of those responsible, as happened with
    Her Majesty's Government during the Potato Famine of the 1840's.

    Replies: @LondonBob

    Only losers with inferiority complexes hold grudges. Winners just move on to their next great achievement.

    • Disagree: JohnPlywood
    • Replies: @Kim
    @LondonBob


    Winners just move on to their next great achievement.
     
    Where by "winners" you mean "sociopaths" and by "great achievement" you mean "victim"?
  145. @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    Looks like Bolsonaro beat him to the punch.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1238479778669301760

    Replies: @neutral, @sudden death, @yakushimaru

    lol, as Bolsonaro was meeting with Trump last weekend 🙂 but I saw some quick denials also, so fog of virus war just gets thicker.

  146. • Replies: @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin



    Proud to be fake news generator?

  147. Now that they’re facing the problem, Americans will have to temporarily cool it on the Venezuela toilet paper shortage jokes. This epidemic, which is relatively minor compared to many historical epidemics, shows liberalism is much less robust than its fans have claimed.

    For the people claiming panic is more of a danger than the virus itself, that’s bad news because the amount of panic is going to increase dramatically. Imagine if someone important, like a head of state, dies of this.

    I’m more concerned about long-term effects of the virus than panic however. Regardless of the number of deaths, many survivors could be looking at a permanent reduction in quality of life.

    I don’t expect we will learn anything from this and the narrative will be that nothing could have been done. The British government, who hasn’t been right about hardly anything important for over 100 years, has already accepted that narrative.

    • Replies: @El Dato
    @EldnahYm

    Fans: "Liberalism is robust"
    Corona-Chan. "Hold my beer"


    I’m more concerned about long-term effects of the virus than panic however. Regardless of the number of deaths, many survivors could be looking at a permanent reduction in quality of life.
     
    Couldn't be avoided. Well' it's just coming a bit earlier.
  148. @Old and Grumpy
    OK, us old farts dropping dead will be fabulous for the greater good. Just think social security trust. Here is the problem that most Americans aren't considering. The average American under 55 crowd is mass consumers of pharmaceutical drugs. Doesn't mean they have preexisting conditions going into this pandemic? Doesn't that make them more likely susceptible for both getting the flu, but also dying?

    Replies: @Spanky

    Of course old farts sacrificing themselves and dropping dead to “save” social security is a good idea, as long as you’re not an old fart…

    It’s funny, whenever I go to the doctor these days (and that’s as rarely as possible), it’s considered remarkable that I am not taking any prescribed or OTC daily “medications”.

  149. @Jaakko Raipala
    @for-the-record

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you'll be hearing a totally different story soon. All has gone to hell and the health care system is mostly irrelevant now as they're just telling people to go home and take care of themselves. Case numbers are also becoming meaningless as they've largerly stopped testing people.

    We had cases early on through Chinese tourists but that was contained with quarantines and travel blocks. So there's a big time lag between the first cases and the epidemic going out of control now that people brought it in from Italy (with the governments doing nothing at all to prevent it). The Chinese tourists also mainly brought it to Lapland so it was handled by the tourist industry and the rednecks up there who still have some remnant of unpozzed government.

    Now that it's spreading in Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo it's all being handled by some of the most incompetent officials that you can find in any first world country. If anything good comes out of this crisis, it might prick the Nordic model bubble. People imagine that we still have good governance when the past few decades have been just one relentless march to poz singularity of promoting people solely on progressive ideological credentials. Acccess to health care is also not actually that good unless you have a lot of money or one of the prog idpol paths past the long queues.

    Replies: @for-the-record

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you’ll be hearing a totally different story soon.

    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).

    Similarly, Scandinavia is today where Italy was on 3 March, but on that date Italy had 79 deaths.

    Third example: Scandinavia has more cases today than Spain on 11 March, but on that date Spain had 55 deaths.

    So it seems to me that even if the number of cases in Scandinavia is skyrocketing, it is not certain (yet) that the number of deaths will.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @for-the-record

    Identified infected people in these countries (Sweden) are mostly strong, younger and active demographics who returned from holidays in Italy.

    When community spread begins to older people in the country, and the disease has time to develop in those vulnerable populations (the second week after the infection is when this infection usually becomes dangerous), then death numbers will go upwards. Fatality rates will be significantly higher if there are lack of hospital spaces and ventilators for patients who are in trouble.

    In Italy and Iran, a spread of virus has happened undetected for some time, and we are now seeing the delayed effects. People who are dying now are perhaps victims of infected people who arrived in the country more than a month ago.

    , @last straw
    @for-the-record


    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).
     
    There were many undiagnosed cases in China initially.
  150. @EldnahYm
    Now that they're facing the problem, Americans will have to temporarily cool it on the Venezuela toilet paper shortage jokes. This epidemic, which is relatively minor compared to many historical epidemics, shows liberalism is much less robust than its fans have claimed.

    For the people claiming panic is more of a danger than the virus itself, that's bad news because the amount of panic is going to increase dramatically. Imagine if someone important, like a head of state, dies of this.

    I'm more concerned about long-term effects of the virus than panic however. Regardless of the number of deaths, many survivors could be looking at a permanent reduction in quality of life.

    I don't expect we will learn anything from this and the narrative will be that nothing could have been done. The British government, who hasn't been right about hardly anything important for over 100 years, has already accepted that narrative.

    Replies: @El Dato

    Fans: “Liberalism is robust”
    Corona-Chan. “Hold my beer”

    I’m more concerned about long-term effects of the virus than panic however. Regardless of the number of deaths, many survivors could be looking at a permanent reduction in quality of life.

    Couldn’t be avoided. Well’ it’s just coming a bit earlier.

  151. @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    Looks like Bolsonaro beat him to the punch.

    https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1238479778669301760

    Replies: @neutral, @sudden death, @yakushimaru

    Both will ofc get great medical care.

    One of the news items that spooked me early on was the death of Li Wenliang, the so called whistleblower. He’s young & healthy, and, based on what people know about communist and Chinese mentality, nobody in China wanted to see him die. That is to say, the best med care must have been provided, and yet he died. So, a lot depends on luck.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @yakushimaru


    a lot depends on luck
     
    and genes.

    AK: Could you use "blockquote" (or italics) for quoting? Thanks.

    Replies: @Alfred

  152. @Spanky
    @ken

    Well, considering she doesn't drive and rarely gets out anymore, she is already pretty much socially isolated in her own home. The most obvious ways she's likely to be exposed are her caregivers (3 working alternating 12 hour shifts), and my parents (80s), who suffer from extreme normality bias (it just can't happen here) and a belief the MSM (well, Fox at least) is trustworthy. They eat out every night these days, mostly at chain restaurants located just off the interstate. Funny thing is, my father is *extremely* afraid of dying, but doesn't recognize Covid-19 as a personal threat. OTOH, he's all jacked up about stock market gyrations...

    Replies: @ken

    Hopefully your parents at least wash their hands before getting near Granny and avoid hacking near her face.

    • Agree: Spanky
  153. I keep changing my mind about this thing. I would say it’s probably somewhere in the middle. It couldn’t hurt to put a dent in the regular flu season to be honest.

    • Replies: @ken
    @Dreadilk

    I think the worst thing about the virus is that our hospitals aren't prepared to deal with the circus. But will they learn and be better prepared in the future or just shut down society, no big deal?

  154. @Omegabooks
    @Dmitry

    Not exactly humid most of the time in far west Texas, but even in March it's gotten close to the 80sand getting more rain than usual. And not very populated either. And cleaner.

    And like the anime, AK...

    Replies: @Salmon Jones, @Dmitry

    The feature which will decrease aerial distance and time spread of virus in waterdroplets, is high absolute humidity levels (not high relative humidity levels). High absolute humidity levels require high air temperatures.

    Places like Houston of Texas is just South of the latitudes where we have seen community spread of COVID-19, so far. And arrival is more than 1 months later. So we might expect there will be comparatively less aerial spread of COVD-19 in Houston Texas already now, and this will increase in the next months.

    For example, if we read this tentative study:

    “To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C and 47-79% humidity).”

    (My comment – this discussing high relative humidity. Studies show that both high and low relative humidity can support airborne virus spread. However, high absolute humidity is monotonic decreasing airborne virus spread.)

    Here are some cities they identify as vulnerable to COVID-19 epidemics in the next few weeks.

    “Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks.”

    “Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia.

    ^ So the vulnerable areas for the epidemic are listed at the end of the study.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @Dmitry


    Places like Houston of Texas is just South of the latitudes where we have seen community spread of COVID-19, so far. And arrival is more than 1 months later. So we might expect there will be comparatively less aerial spread of COVD-19 in Houston Texas
     
    And how much time do Texans spend outside their freezing offices, malls, restaurants and places of entertainment? Not much I would have thought.

    Perhaps it is time to change ingrained habits in the interests of public health.

    https://previews.123rf.com/images/trongnguyen/trongnguyen2001/trongnguyen200103228/138307916-grapevine-texas-us-nov-29-2019-crowded-of-diverse-people-shoppers-at-grapevine-mills-mall-during-bla.jpg
  155. @for-the-record
    @Jaakko Raipala

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you’ll be hearing a totally different story soon.

    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).

    Similarly, Scandinavia is today where Italy was on 3 March, but on that date Italy had 79 deaths.

    Third example: Scandinavia has more cases today than Spain on 11 March, but on that date Spain had 55 deaths.

    So it seems to me that even if the number of cases in Scandinavia is skyrocketing, it is not certain (yet) that the number of deaths will.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @last straw

    Identified infected people in these countries (Sweden) are mostly strong, younger and active demographics who returned from holidays in Italy.

    When community spread begins to older people in the country, and the disease has time to develop in those vulnerable populations (the second week after the infection is when this infection usually becomes dangerous), then death numbers will go upwards. Fatality rates will be significantly higher if there are lack of hospital spaces and ventilators for patients who are in trouble.

    In Italy and Iran, a spread of virus has happened undetected for some time, and we are now seeing the delayed effects. People who are dying now are perhaps victims of infected people who arrived in the country more than a month ago.

  156. @El Dato
    @Cal Hoyle

    Ok, so if you give this chimera virus to the virologist, would he say "that's engineered!" or not notice anything abnormal?

    Replies: @utu

    Probably not if the bioengineering is done with finesse. You find a known virus in nature (in the database of known viruses) that requires minimum number of modifications to obtain the desired gain of function. Furthermore you can create intermediate stage viruses and introduce them into the nature (some animals) and then have your trusted scientists to discover them and upload them to the database of known viruses. So when the culprit virus is identified during the epidemic and cross checked against what is in the database it may appear as it is a product of natural random mutations from its known precursors.

  157. Hysteria about covid-19 reached the climax.
    Actually I would not mind when it hits also the creators of this plot hard.
    But there are testing restrictions for the chosen one. They are happy to print money to get even better dept slaves to create a brave new world of blackmail receivers.

    [MORE]

    One very important thing is missed in all this articles ..the clear definition of the disease and about what exactly is the cause of death!
    Remember: there where 40 different disease listed as a result of AIDS! What a joke!

    So if a person had one of these disease and have been tested HIV positive and died, it was listed as a cause of AIDS

    There is a disease called chronical lung fibrosis. which is not caused by any Virus. But the acute lung fibrosis combined with influenca fewer…takes millions of victims worldwide every year.

    Since AIDS we have a second variation of acute lung fibrosis: Triggered by a negative placebo, an antibody test about a new virus branded as “deathly”!

    Here is a sentence from a “top” Taiwan Virologist from:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

    “The Virologist further stated that the US has recently had more than 200 “pulmonary fibrosis” cases that resulted in death due to patients’ inability to breathe, but whose conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis.”

    (Imho..the second variation of acute lung fibrosis as exposed above!!)

    I do not want to sound arrogant, but I have studied this phenomens for more then 40 years by my work as a breathing therapist, and yes, I created and teached breathing techniques who easily overcome the problems created by a negative placebo such as the HIV tests…if tested positive!

    • Replies: @Dumbo
    @Hempus

    The HIV is a curious virus because people don't die from HIV/AIDS, but from other "opportunist" diseases. Of course, in theory the HIV virus weakens the immune system and that's why people die... But there are also theories that the main cause is not the virus itself but the lifestyle (anal sex, drugs, etc). Who knows?

    About the coronavirus, I think the main cause of death seem to be a form of pneumonia. But the funny thing is that, some people are identified to have pneumonia by CT-scans, and then they are considered to have "COVID-19", but what they have been actually diagnosed with is pneumonia (perhaps by other causes?).

    According to this paper, the other more common COVID-19 test (throat swab samples) has only a ~70% percent reliability. But that was back in February 26, so I don't know now.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200226151951.htm

    Replies: @mike99588, @Hempus

    , @Commentator Mike
    @Hempus

    Your analogy with HIV/AIDS is interesting. Supposing someone is tested positive for covid-19 but has no symptoms and is healthy. When he does get the seasonal flu soon after will they say it was covid-19, and if he subsequently dies of complications will they also put it down as a covid-19 fatality? Surely testing positive for covid-19 doesn't make one immune to the regular flu.

    Replies: @Hempus

  158. @Anatoly Karlin
    Thread on /r/coronavirus:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fhy247/coronavirus_could_cause_a_25_year_drop_in_us_life/

    Replies: @utu

    [MORE]

    Proud to be fake news generator?

  159. @nickels
    @Alfred

    All this is missing the point.
    Sliwing the RATE of infections is what decreases the total number of deaths because of the aforementioned reason.

    The virus is going to infect a sharfload of people whether measures are in place or not.

    Replies: @Alfred

    The virus is going to infect a sharfload of people whether measures are in place or not.

    Not if you isolate the infected. Wuhan proved that conclusively.

  160. If anything, this coronastuff is also a great experiment in how easy it is to command the sheeple, I mean, the people. In the undisclosed place where I am currently staying, all was normal, people were basically ignoring it until yesterday, then school closures and other measures were ordered, then suddenly there’s lines in the supermarket, events cancelled, people don’t go out, etc. And there’s not a single official case in this particular city as far as I know.

    It is certainly interesting, from a mass psychological point of view. Anyway, I think I have enough supplies for a few weeks, but after that, we’ll see. As long as people don’t start turning into zombies, I think it will be OK.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Dumbo

    (If anything, this coronastuff is also a great experiment in how easy it is to command the sheeple)----> (I have enough supplies for a few weeks)

    Replies: @Dumbo

  161. @Dmitry
    @Matt Forney

    It's good to hear how Albania shuts down, as it will be vulnerable with its close distance to Italy. In most of Eastern Europe, the epidemic has not started yet though - it will be coming in a scary way the next 4-6 weeks at best, unless there is a real shut down of travel (and perhaps even now it is too late for travel shut down to avoid it, although it can at least slow its arrival).

    So far, South Korea is perhaps the most successful country (in terms of state capacity to respond to epidemic), while Iran has been the least successful.

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/c26/7c9/5a3/c267c95a3c996fed4df91304b2520bf2.png

    https://habrastorage.org/r/w1560/getpro/habr/post_images/1d2/ce7/365/1d2ce73659a5dc520931782d386df186.png

    Interesting article:
    https://habr.com/ru/post/491974/

    AK: It's a translation of this article, which is linked to in the post: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

    Replies: @Matra, @Commentator Mike

    Those numbers of tests performed seem ridiculous. Since the symptoms of Corona virus are similar to those of the cold and influenza, everyone who exhibits these symptoms should be tested, as how will we know who is suffering from what.

    On another note, if this virus kills off the elderly in Europe and US, the proportion of immigrants and Muslims in the population will jump, as it is the indigenous whites that are most represented among the aged.

  162. @Dumbo
    If anything, this coronastuff is also a great experiment in how easy it is to command the sheeple, I mean, the people. In the undisclosed place where I am currently staying, all was normal, people were basically ignoring it until yesterday, then school closures and other measures were ordered, then suddenly there's lines in the supermarket, events cancelled, people don't go out, etc. And there's not a single official case in this particular city as far as I know.

    It is certainly interesting, from a mass psychological point of view. Anyway, I think I have enough supplies for a few weeks, but after that, we'll see. As long as people don't start turning into zombies, I think it will be OK.

    Replies: @utu

    (If anything, this coronastuff is also a great experiment in how easy it is to command the sheeple)—-> (I have enough supplies for a few weeks)

    • Replies: @Dumbo
    @utu

    I see what you did there, but, I had already purchased those before. ;) Mostly because I hate long lines at the supermarket.

  163. @for-the-record
    @Anonymous (n)

    Your assertion that many of them would have died anyway is materially false . . . There is obviously a huge surge of additional critical cases leading to deaths over and above the annual baseline

    Whether this is a "real increase" over simply time-shifted a few months remains to be seen. In some ways an analogous situation may prove to be the "canicule" (heat wave) in France in August 2003 which was subsequently estimated to have been responsible for approximately 15,000 "extra" deaths of (almost entirely elderly) people in France:

    https://www.inserm.fr/sites/default/files/2017-11/Inserm_RapportThematique_SurmortaliteCaniculeAout2003_RapportFinal.pdf

    The annual death totals in France for the period 2000-2005:

    2000 ... 540,600
    2001 ... 541,000
    2002 ... 545,2000
    2003 ... 562,500 (Canicule: 15,000 excess deaths)
    2004 ... 519,500
    2005 ... 538,100

    To the untrained eye it would appear that c.15,000 deaths were effectively "advanced" from 2004 to 2003, i.e. that 15,000 people had their lives shortened by one year. In fact, it may have been only a few months if the reduction in deaths in 2004 (relative to a "standard" year) occurred primarily in the earlier months of the year.

    Replies: @utu

    Thanks. Good example.

  164. @Hempus
    Hysteria about covid-19 reached the climax.
    Actually I would not mind when it hits also the creators of this plot hard.
    But there are testing restrictions for the chosen one. They are happy to print money to get even better dept slaves to create a brave new world of blackmail receivers.



    One very important thing is missed in all this articles ..the clear definition of the disease and about what exactly is the cause of death!
    Remember: there where 40 different disease listed as a result of AIDS! What a joke!

    So if a person had one of these disease and have been tested HIV positive and died, it was listed as a cause of AIDS

    There is a disease called chronical lung fibrosis. which is not caused by any Virus. But the acute lung fibrosis combined with influenca fewer...takes millions of victims worldwide every year.

    Since AIDS we have a second variation of acute lung fibrosis: Triggered by a negative placebo, an antibody test about a new virus branded as "deathly"!

    Here is a sentence from a "top" Taiwan Virologist from:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

    "The Virologist further stated that the US has recently had more than 200 “pulmonary fibrosis” cases that resulted in death due to patients’ inability to breathe, but whose conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis."

    (Imho..the second variation of acute lung fibrosis as exposed above!!)

    I do not want to sound arrogant, but I have studied this phenomens for more then 40 years by my work as a breathing therapist, and yes, I created and teached breathing techniques who easily overcome the problems created by a negative placebo such as the HIV tests...if tested positive!

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Commentator Mike

    The HIV is a curious virus because people don’t die from HIV/AIDS, but from other “opportunist” diseases. Of course, in theory the HIV virus weakens the immune system and that’s why people die… But there are also theories that the main cause is not the virus itself but the lifestyle (anal sex, drugs, etc). Who knows?

    About the coronavirus, I think the main cause of death seem to be a form of pneumonia. But the funny thing is that, some people are identified to have pneumonia by CT-scans, and then they are considered to have “COVID-19”, but what they have been actually diagnosed with is pneumonia (perhaps by other causes?).

    According to this paper, the other more common COVID-19 test (throat swab samples) has only a ~70% percent reliability. But that was back in February 26, so I don’t know now.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200226151951.htm

    • Replies: @mike99588
    @Dumbo

    The coronavirus pneumonia tends to be radiologically weird from normal pneumonias, per my board certified college roommate.

    , @Hempus
    @Dumbo

    Thanks for your replay!
    I had one client 1980 who was in the gay scene in NY all the seventies with symptoms later identified as AIDS symptoms. He died 1984 and was one of the first "AIDS victims. One of the favorite drug which was used in the Gay saunas / dark rooms was poppers..."Inhaling nitrites relaxes smooth muscles throughout the body, as well as sphincter muscles of the anus and the vagina". My client told me that somtimes he had 5 or more sexual contacts an afternoon, sniffing poppers before the act. I by myself had accidentally only one experience with poppers in Spain 1972 directly on the dancefloor of a disco and thought: what a stupid drug! No psychedelic effect, just feeling smooth and a physical heat through the body.

    Serial use of poppers can lead to Kaposi sarcoma and damage of brain and nerv system. The mysterious death of gay people in NY and San Francisco could be easily explained. But then Montagnier / Gallo discovered a new HI-Virus and created a theory of correlation by testing the antibodies of those gay people....telling them they catched a new deadly virus by sex with someone wo had the virus already.

    As I mentioned in my previous comment: there is a type of pneumonia which is not related to a virus....called lung or pulmonary fibrosis.
    But panic and fear after been tested HIV or Covid-19 positive leads often to an acute lung fibrosis by permanent hyperventilation. On the endstadium those people cannot open the lungs anymore because of the growing contraction and shrinking of the alveolus. This is an energy transformation / breathing technique problem and not the result of a deadly virus.

    So if you make a Covid-19 test with a person having a bad flu and the test is positive, then you might see a quick dead...especially if the people think its a weaponised, deadly virus + the horror of isolation tents.
    Stupidly IRGC commander Salami menioned this theory of a weaponised Virus. Such a message is a negative placebo for old people anywhere who have a flu and got tested positive.

    This is a criminal coup against all nations by the big pharma and Vaccination Pope Bill Gates! A very evil attack of the deep state ... Trump knows it...and the msm is screeching.

  165. @utu
    @Dumbo

    (If anything, this coronastuff is also a great experiment in how easy it is to command the sheeple)----> (I have enough supplies for a few weeks)

    Replies: @Dumbo

    I see what you did there, but, I had already purchased those before. 😉 Mostly because I hate long lines at the supermarket.

  166. [MORE]

    Do you really trust the Bozos reporting this stuff, anymore than you trust “the Government”?

    Trump may be the President, but thanks to decades of Leftist/Jew occupation/infiltration, the real government of most Western nations is largely an unseen entity.

    Anatoly and the rest of the haters of the West need to understand that reports of our impending demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    It’s known as gaslighting.

  167. @yakushimaru
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Both will ofc get great medical care.
     
    One of the news items that spooked me early on was the death of Li Wenliang, the so called whistleblower. He's young & healthy, and, based on what people know about communist and Chinese mentality, nobody in China wanted to see him die. That is to say, the best med care must have been provided, and yet he died. So, a lot depends on luck.

    Replies: @Alfred

    a lot depends on luck

    and genes.

    AK: Could you use “blockquote” (or italics) for quoting? Thanks.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @Alfred

    OK :-)

  168. @Dmitry
    @Omegabooks

    The feature which will decrease aerial distance and time spread of virus in waterdroplets, is high absolute humidity levels (not high relative humidity levels). High absolute humidity levels require high air temperatures.

    Places like Houston of Texas is just South of the latitudes where we have seen community spread of COVID-19, so far. And arrival is more than 1 months later. So we might expect there will be comparatively less aerial spread of COVD-19 in Houston Texas already now, and this will increase in the next months.

    -

    For example, if we read this tentative study:

    "To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50 N” corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11 degrees C and 47-79% humidity)."

    (My comment - this discussing high relative humidity. Studies show that both high and low relative humidity can support airborne virus spread. However, high absolute humidity is monotonic decreasing airborne virus spread.)

    Here are some cities they identify as vulnerable to COVID-19 epidemics in the next few weeks.

    https://i.imgur.com/Z6d0ELd.jpg


    "Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks."

    "Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. "

    ^ So the vulnerable areas for the epidemic are listed at the end of the study.

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    Replies: @Alfred

    Places like Houston of Texas is just South of the latitudes where we have seen community spread of COVID-19, so far. And arrival is more than 1 months later. So we might expect there will be comparatively less aerial spread of COVD-19 in Houston Texas

    And how much time do Texans spend outside their freezing offices, malls, restaurants and places of entertainment? Not much I would have thought.

    Perhaps it is time to change ingrained habits in the interests of public health.

  169. I want to mention the first official report on state television of the virus was on December 31. The Western media does not want to acknowledge the first report was quite early because it would derail the cover up narrative. A widely read WSJ story reconstructing the timeline in December and January even entirely omits this event!

    * CGTN, December 31:

    * CGTN, January 1:

    * WSJ story: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932?emailToken=01976f1697c2a8982aad03d7ed834117rStVB2BHYFW6LZvU9pt+pE/a/QCwVryKs5L0hhsnySGRLF5xrl9VWuD0Bk8ciQvOR789+zv2TqUY4DEmXgyEjx3MmU+24j7TQk7RZ3WrRDEkPmoi2SVWvtsupVTAt0f7&reflink=article_copyURL_share

    Many things were done wrong in January. Communication was poor with the WHO in the first 2 weeks. Repeated claims were made of no evidence of human to human transmission until January 20. But people generally assumed that it could be transmitted human to human even without official confirmation. As we have seen in Italy and now pretty soon in Spain, the real challenge of this virus was not shoddy government supplied information but the surge of the virus. It suddenly barrels out of control and overwhelms hospitals in a matter of days.

    However,unlike what the Western media would have you believe, there was no cover up, which I define to mean completely shutting out information for an extended period. The police warning to the eight doctors for social media messages warning about a SARS like virus occurred on December 30. This accelerated public disclosure because on December 30 public health authorities in Wuhan announced the virus on social media.

    On the evening of 30 December 2019, an “urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause” was issued by the Wuhan Municipal Health Committee on its Weibo social media account. It was reported that since the beginning of December, there had been “a successive series of patients with unexplained pneumonia”—27 suspected cases in total, seven of which were in critical condition and 18 were stable, two of which were on the verge of being discharged soon. The Wuhan Municipal Health Committee reported to the WHO that 27 people had been diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown cause. Most were stallholders from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, seven of whom were in critical condition. The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission also made a public announcement regarding the situation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_December_2019_%E2%80%93_January_2020#30_December

    • Thanks: Alfred
    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Also in China, there is a large audience of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. So, even though they are not "official" channels, the fact is many Chinese were in the know around Jan 1st. But people were simply not sure about its seriousness. After all, over the years, there were a number of this and that virus flu happening, virtually all of them were pretty localized, small damage events.

    More regrettable is that the two expert groups sent by China CDC were also not sure about its seriousness until too late. In hindsight, the game theoretic mechanism design of China CDC (vs local government) is probably no good. And local personnel arrangements in key positions were also pretty bad.

  170. @Cassandra
    @Matt Forney

    You are not accurate about Greece. There are to this date under a hundred cases and large portions of the country are shut down. My friend works for a major telecom and it has been closed for a solid week. They are doing a fine job of containment and their spread came from tourists who visited Israel and a woman from Milan.

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @BJRN

    Do you know who Matt Forney is?

    You should not even have answered.

  171. @Dumbo
    @Hempus

    The HIV is a curious virus because people don't die from HIV/AIDS, but from other "opportunist" diseases. Of course, in theory the HIV virus weakens the immune system and that's why people die... But there are also theories that the main cause is not the virus itself but the lifestyle (anal sex, drugs, etc). Who knows?

    About the coronavirus, I think the main cause of death seem to be a form of pneumonia. But the funny thing is that, some people are identified to have pneumonia by CT-scans, and then they are considered to have "COVID-19", but what they have been actually diagnosed with is pneumonia (perhaps by other causes?).

    According to this paper, the other more common COVID-19 test (throat swab samples) has only a ~70% percent reliability. But that was back in February 26, so I don't know now.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200226151951.htm

    Replies: @mike99588, @Hempus

    The coronavirus pneumonia tends to be radiologically weird from normal pneumonias, per my board certified college roommate.

  172. The most prevalent ‘conspiracy theory’ as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @Just Passing Through

    The wet markets simply reflect the "developing" nature of a developing country. That is to say, the majority of the world can hardly laugh at it wholeheartedly.

    And, what really matters, is how the world comes through the current situation. The CCP so far managed to pull the country back from a Chernobyl kind of disaster, but the economy is still hanging. The blame game is really just small potatoes.

    Replies: @last straw

    , @utu
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets.

     

    But they keep working on the PR:

    China sends medical supplies, experts to help Italy battle coronavirus
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-respirators/china-sends-medical-supplies-experts-to-help-italy-battle-coronavirus-idUSKBN2101IM

    “A team of nine Chinese medical staff arrived late on Thursday with some 30 tonnes of equipment on a flight organized by the Chinese Red Cross.”

    “In contrast to China, Italy’s partners in the European Union earlier this month refused Rome’s requests for help with medical supplies as they looked to stockpile face masks and other equipment to help their own citizens.”
     

    China's richest man Jack Ma donates one million face masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the US as Beijing and Washington accuse each other of being the origin of the disease
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8105199/Chinas-richest-man-Jack-Ma-donates-one-million-face-masks-500-000-test-kits-US.html

    Earlier this week, Ma announced he was donating 1.8million face masks and 100,000 coronavirus test kits to Europe.

    Last week, Ma mailed 1million masks to Japan and South Korea respectively, according to Jack Ma Charity Foundation. The two neighbouring countries of China are also being ravaged by the contagion.
     

    Replies: @Chinaman

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters
     
    I always find this notion that China, or more accurately, the CCP does anything like PR let alone "carefully cultivate" to be hilariously stupid. Perhaps once, before Xi, there was a faction in the Party that actually cared for it enough to make an effort but by and large you're only going to see the most hamfisted gestures because they neither understand the West nor put a huge priority on it given more pressing concerns.

    https://twitter.com/qin_duke/status/1238504642541244416

    The Party these days instead is dealing with endless spam of Xi Jinping thought, the "dove" faction of the CCP has long since been driven out of existence, and the main consideration of Chinese policymaking is domestic politics.

    When China goes out and demands an apology for "the feelings hurt of a billion Chinese people" in one of their typical autistic gestures, it is to try to demonstrate to an internal audience that they "get respect." Same as when China endlessly promotes the notion of "rise from humiliation."

    But no, your average CCP member probably spends far more of his time and energy thinking about how to sing Xi Jinping thought and thus intensely parochial concerns over anything international. And as a result, there isn't much "PR" and what there is, is terrible and stupid because it just isn't something they put much effort or energy into, especially toward Western audiences.

    Replies: @random rand, @random rand

    , @GammaRay
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.
     
    Ive seen some people suggest that this is currently the case but I think that people that suggest this are usually projecting their own desires with regards to china. Will this whole corona-virus thing damage china's PR image? definitely. Will it be lasting? Most likely not. You seriously overestimate how much people care, after a few news cycles the whole china corona-virus thing will literally be a thing of the past.

    More importantly is the fact that this whole corona virus thing will not isolate china like china-hawks are hoping it will and the reason why is because there are far too many people who stand to make lots of $$$ by working with china. Oh so there are some nationalist countries who don't want to work with china anymore? Thats fine, there are plenty of other countries that are willing to step up and take their place instead. Put simply, talk is cheap, nationalist ideology will largely go out the window when it comes to greed and the desire to make a profit. The relatively small proportion of right wing people who want to see china isolated by a rising wave of nationalist sentiment largely overestimate the fickleness and unreliability of the masses. The alt-right pipe dream of china becoming an international leper after all this blows over is just that, a pipe dream.

    Ive seen far too many commenters (both here and in other places) who genuinely think that the corona virus incident is going to make people seriously question globalization and immigration. I hate to say it but the only people that will be drawing that conclusion will be people who already think that way. "Normies" are not going to draw that conclusion because they are either indifferent to it or they already accept globalization and immigration as a foregone conclusion and it wouldn't occur to them to question it. To them, the whole corona virus thing will simply be understood as one of those things that happens, like natural disasters, global warming, etc etc; the corona virus incident isn't going to cause them to seriously question anything. The alt-right drastically overestimates how much people care, about anything

    on an unrelated note, does anyone else feel like its pretty significant that the chinese have publicly signed off on the conspiracy theory of the US being the origin of the corona virus?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3

    The fact that the chinese government has apparently given this theory the green light is pretty shocking. I always imagine the CCP as being extremely careful when it comes to stuff like this, therefore the fact that they went public with it is a pretty big deal. What this implies is that perhaps the CCP actually has some credible evidence to back up their claims, if they didn't then they wouldn't dare take a chance of losing massive face by spreading a blatantly untrue conspiracy theory.

    IMO I think that the CCP may actually have some credible evidence to back up their claim and at this point in time it wouldn't surprise me if maybe they are forcing the US behind closed doors to give some concessions in return for allowing the US to claim that the whole corona virus thing was an accident and not a deliberate act of biological warfare. If this is indeed the case then china does have the US by the short and curlies. That being said, im still equally open to the possibility that maybe the whole corona virus incident was a chinese fuck up from the getgo and maybe this is just a really hamhanded attempt at counter-propaganda, but that just seems so unlikely given how cautious the CCP would normally be when it comes to something like this.

    Replies: @Tor597, @LondonBob

    , @Astuteobservor II
    @Just Passing Through

    Gotta ask, why in the bloody hell do anons still think PR matters? If the Chinese confirms this as a bioweapons attack, get ready for a counter attack of the same.

    What goes through that head of yours? Omfg, we are about to kill them the same way, let's hope they care? Think China would gives a flying damn what the retarded public of the west thinks at that point?

    Think harder. If you could.

    Replies: @MikePToo

  173. If you live long enough, you will die of a Chinese virus. I hope cheap iPhone 3’s, Walmart crap, and Panda Express were worth trading for years of life. FU Joe Biden and Bill Clinton.

    • Replies: @last straw
    @JimB

    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.

    Replies: @JimB, @Gleimhart Mantooso

  174. Anglos just letting the virus happen is the most Anglo thing imaginable.

    Just think of all the creepy Anglos who have talked about thinning the herd with viruses or that if they were reincarnated they would come back as a virus.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Tor597

    "In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation." - Prince Philip, 1988

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jun/21/quotes-by-prince-philip

  175. @LondonBob
    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren't accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry, @eugyppius, @Ludwig, @Skeptikal

    This is ultimately an impractical idea. If you thought the resistance to vaccines to children was an issue (even though for argument sakes 1 in 100,000 comes down with some disease/autism due to the antibiotics messing up the a kid’s biome which in rare cases has been found to be linked to autism), this is going to encounter massive resistance.

    Firstly scientists are not sure why kids are not as impacted as adults so far. There are various theories as to why but as a parent I won’t offer my child to purposely be infected just on a theory. Even flu vaccines have side effects to kids: let alone an unknown coronavirus. It is in some sense as bad as saying let the elderly die so that hospitals can focus on more “productive” members of society. At the least various cultures will have to decide what their value systems are. (I am sure Sparta would have had no problem containing this. Kill any who look like they have it.)

    What China did – locking down at different levels based on severity, so Wuhan was locked down at the neighborhood level (over 9000), at the level of the city and then the province and also focused on other clusters – did and can work. Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve. That’s what needs to be done.

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Ludwig


    Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve.
     
    If China’s achievement at containment is as reported, then the decision of the the US, Britain and Canada to let the virus run through the population, cannot be a matter of unavoidable necessity but, rather, it would seem, a decision based on economic considerations.

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West. But then coming from Boris Johnson, who has announced the pregnancy of his current girl friend before completing the divorce of his current wife, that’s not something to be surprised at, I suppose.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Alfred

    , @LondonBob
    @Ludwig

    China's measures are extreme, unsustainable and it is already too late.

    The Supreme Leader, me, would not allow you to stop your child being infected. If there is a subset of children with a medical condition for whom infection might have adverse effect, there has been no evidence Wuhan Flu is even as a bad as the common cold for children, then I would allow exemption. Of course once all their peers have immunity their likelihood of catching the Wuhan Flu will have declined from absolute certainty to as low as possible.

    Replies: @Smith

  176. @Dreadilk
    I keep changing my mind about this thing. I would say it's probably somewhere in the middle. It couldn't hurt to put a dent in the regular flu season to be honest.

    Replies: @ken

    I think the worst thing about the virus is that our hospitals aren’t prepared to deal with the circus. But will they learn and be better prepared in the future or just shut down society, no big deal?

  177. @Dieter Kief
    @Matt Forney

    There seems to be enough of collective thinking energy/ ability left in Albania to handle this crisis in a reasonable way. Greece is (and has been) dominated by an extremely individualistic/ anarchist mindset. State (=the collective) = your personal enemy (beware -robs you of your money with the well know tactic of calling his longing for your posessions "taxes". Avoid these attempts of the state at any cost (these costs are not that high anyway... - this is how we get along, since ages - the constant Greek inner monologue).

    Trump is more on the Taki's Mag / Greece/ Libertarian / individualistic / anarchist side. A form of complexity reduction, which works up to a point - especially as long as collective action does not become a question of life or death.

    ^Bottom line: Eastern European countries have more of the mental resouces left, which allow for collective action.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Why did you post that Karlin was blocked in the UK? Which site?

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Daniel Chieh

    He isn't.

    , @Dieter Kief
    @Daniel Chieh

    Oh thanks - so I misunderstood his remark about the Russian shitposters as a sarcastic self-reference - I think he thinks that he too could be seen by the British officials as one which should be blocked. This unit exists - and will therefore produce enemies. -
    I'm glad to hear that I was too pessimistic here.

  178. @Tor597
    Anglos just letting the virus happen is the most Anglo thing imaginable.

    Just think of all the creepy Anglos who have talked about thinning the herd with viruses or that if they were reincarnated they would come back as a virus.

    Replies: @utu

    “In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation.” – Prince Philip, 1988

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jun/21/quotes-by-prince-philip

  179. The coronavirus was created by the Mossad and the CIA and MI6 as a bioweapon attack on China and Russia and Iran and I hope it backfires on these satanic bastards!

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Desert Fox


    The coronavirus was created by the Mossad and the CIA and MI6 as a bioweapon attack on China and Russia and Iran and I hope it backfires on these satanic bastards!
     
    You don't know that. And the fact that the virus has now infected and is likely to kill many more in the West than in China, makes your claim seems unlikely, although admittedly it is not impossible, given the general stupidity and depravity of Western leadership.

    Replies: @Seraphim

  180. @SafeNow
    “At least for America, they have an unusual opportunity to benefit from their lack of public transport, and everyone having their own car, and going to the office in the hermetically sealed cabin.”

    Not everyone. Here in S. California, our migrant gardeners and other laborers normally make their rounds with two or three people closely sharing the front seat of a pickup truck. I suspect the same is the case elsewhere. The virus will spread among the migrant community, and our already-overrun emergency rooms will be further overrun. Those with children will transmit the virus to them, thus creating a new vector. To prevent this by achieving stay-home compliance, we will need to hand-out income-replacement money to gardeners and other laborers (and to those who, perhaps, forgive me, might be falsely claiming to be fully employed as the same).

    By the way, I cannot imagine what we will do with 50,000 people living in our homeless encampments. Will we say “stay in your tent”? ”Stay in your cardboard box”?

    Replies: @RadicalCenter

    From an Angeleno, good point, bra.

    Deport the illegal aliens and imprison their rich disloyal Elite employers. Eliminate anyone in both groups who resists. Including newsom and Garcetti. To the extent allowed by the law, of course, changing the law first as needed.

    As for the noncitizen homeless, they should all be deported or eliminated.

    As for US Citizen homeless, they should all be removed forcibly from our streets and helped or punished according to their situation. Many should be institutionalized or incarcerated, with the remainder given safe clean housing, full medical care, drug rehab, and a clear directive to stay off the streets and not harass people / panhandle / expose themselves / disrupt the peace or block sidewalks or be promptly dragged off and jailed.

    • Agree: CanSpeccy
  181. @Kim
    From Wikipedia, re car accidents In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, 30,296 deadly, killing 32,999, and injuring 2,239,000. About 2,000 children under 16 die every year in traffic collisions.

    Clearly, car accidents are very costly, financially and in human terms, and no doubt most of these costs could be eliminated if only we would reduce the speed limit to 20 mph nationwide.

    Yet, for some reason - probably because nasty people - society refuses to do it!

    More seriously, the price that is currently being put on human lives in this Bat Flu hysteria is - while never explicitly stated - clearly absurdly high. The average citizen isn't worth the chemicals it cost to make him but we have to shut down the international economy so that granma will still be around in the nursing home to not recognize us again next year? Retarded.

    Replies: @Spanky, @RadicalCenter

    You’re sick. Your relatives should fear you if you’re serious.

    • Agree: AP, Spanky
    • Replies: @ken
    @RadicalCenter

    Kim may have a hard edge , but is basically correct. This virus is most dangerous to the elderly. If you are under 50, lead a normal life (and driving past bars and restaurants in my area suggests that is exactly what people are doing). If you are older and have compromised health perhaps you should self quarantine.

    Sorry, but vast majority of people under fifty are going to live thru this without having to visit the hospital if people would stop the hysteria. Some nutter/poster talked about his 30 year old daughter being put on hold at a hospital for an hour and receiving a call back six hours later. In normal times how many normal 30 years call a hospital because they have a fever and cough? How many would hang up the phone and go to a wellness center or just take some meds/vitamins and curl up on the couch and feel better in 3 days. No, Unz has helped make everyone panic. I have a cough, I'm gonna die! No, you have 99.7% chance of recovering stop freaking out.

    Replies: @Spanky

  182. I feel like the Shah would have handled the situation in Iran much better. During his party in the desert celebrating the 2,500 year anniversary of the Persian Empire, he closed the borders and the schools. And he wasn’t afraid to spend big.

    Of course, it may be that his son would have been a weaker leader.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @songbird


    I feel like the Shah would have handled the situation in Iran much better. During his party in the desert celebrating the 2,500 year anniversary of the Persian Empire, he closed the borders and the schools. And he wasn’t afraid to spend big.
     
    I was living in Tehran at that time. I remember the TV announcers making a big effort to call princess Anne, princess Aann. Her name, when pronounced normally, means TURD in Farsi. :-)

    It is true. The Shah was quite a guy. I remember military helicopters flying low over our roof on their way from the north of Tehran to shoot up the people in the south of Tehran. My Iranian girlfriend would get phone calls from her girlfriend in old Tehran to say that they were shooting up her district. Their canon would penetrate walls.

    The big difference between then and now is that the Shah had the western media in his pocket. They never criticised him. Their governments never criticised him either. He could do what he liked with impunity.

    Today, the situation is different. There is an undeclared war against all Iranians - and they know it. This virus was planted in Qom and near those politicians who got poisoned. Their medical supplies were cut off years ago. They don't have the money to splurge like the Shah did. The media of the west is lying constantly about everything going on in Iran. They never mention that it is a far more democratic country than the UK, France or the USA, for example. Every time some Iraqis attack their occupiers, the Iranians get the blame.

    Regardless, you can be sure that the next time they introduce a virus, the Iranians will be much better prepared. Furthermore, it is now much clearer why the Americans invited a leading Iranian scientist and promptly arrested him.

    An Iranian scientist coming to the US for a prestigious visiting scientist position was arrested on arrival and remains in detention eight months later (now released). When Professor Masoud Soleimani left Tehran last fall, he planned to complete the final stage of his research on treating stroke patients as a visiting scholar at the prestigious Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.

    His lawyers say Soleimani, who works in stem cell research, hematology and regenerative medicine, saw a former student’s plans to travel from the US to Iran in September 2016 as a chance to get recombinant proteins used in his research for a fraction of the price he would pay at home.

    But he was arrested on landing in Chicago and prosecutors in Atlanta have accused him and two of his former students of conspiring and attempting to export biological materials from the US to Iran without authorization, in violation of US sanctions. The two counts each carry a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
     
    Professor accused of conspiring and attempting to export biological materials from the US to Iran without authorization

    Nostalgia is not a bad thing - in moderation.

    http://www.angelfire.com/empire/imperialiran/guests14.jpg

    Replies: @Keypusher

  183. @Monotonous Languor
    After sober analysis, extensive reading, and careful assessment of each and every fact either directly or indirectly related to COVID19, I am now fully convinced of the following:

    - The virus was deliberately created by aliens from the Betelgeuse solar system, who have been secretly spying on our planet for the last 200 years.
    - The Betelgeusians have developed a supremely accurate quantum computer model ("It's Quantum!") of our species, which predicts what various factions of humanity will do given any set of specific circumstances and inputs.
    - The Betelgeusians, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to re-balance various factions of humanity here on earth, depending on their projected threat to other populations and the planet in general.
    - After running various scenarios through their quantum computer ("It's Quantum!"), the results for advancing an optimal future became obvious.
    - The COVID19 was created specifically to attack Italians, Iranians, and Han Chinese.
    - In their computer simulation ("It's Quantum!"), those three groups were considered most egregiously able to perpetrate negative effects on the rest of humanity in the future.
    - Therefore, the Betelgeusians made the onerous decision to create and release the virus.
    - Various intended consequences were also the result of the simulation ("It's Quantum!"); these include vituperation and blowback on the US Deep State embedded for lo! these many years.
    - A popular mass uprising will take effect against the Derp State, and leftism/progressivism will finally be tossed out on its collective ear all over Western Civilization. It will be so thoroughly maligned, that it will finally end up on the ash heap of history, never to return.
    - The Betelgeusians will surreptitiously introduce an antidote into the ecosphere, thereby eradicating all further related susceptibility and deaths.
    - The Betelgeusians will look down on their handiwork with benign satisfaction.
    - Western Civilization will again have a chance to flourish like never before, entering a new Renaissance, and everybody will live happily ever after.

    There... don't you like my story much better than all the other nonsense you've been pummeled with lately? (You can thank me later.)

    Replies: @Kratoklastes, @anonymous coward

    Betelgeusians

    Are these guys also (((reptiloids)))?

  184. Lots of curious assumptions. The Boeing 737 MAX inference is a logical fail. Which goes without saying on the Unz review. Nevertheless this essay does say a lot because (as usual) it doesn’t say much of anything at all past the usual derisions.

    The pandemic has morphed into a massive psychological operation beyond what most people are routinely exposed to.

  185. The pandemic has morphed into a massive psychological operation beyond what most people are routinely exposed to.

    Yep….

    So far works perfectly. Masses, in West, ARE in panic mode.

    Any idea what’s the real intention behind it?

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @peterAUS


    Any idea what’s the real intention behind it?
     
    NWO. And whatever comes with it.

    Replies: @peterAUS

  186. Mar 12, 2020 CORONAVIRUS: THE PHARMA PANDEMIC

    Has Big Pharma Primed us for a COVID Disaster?; ICAN’s CDC Lawsuit Under Attack; FOIAs Reveal Shocking behavior; ICAN’s Next Big Move.

  187. @peterAUS

    The pandemic has morphed into a massive psychological operation beyond what most people are routinely exposed to.
     
    Yep....

    So far works perfectly. Masses, in West, ARE in panic mode.

    Any idea what's the real intention behind it?

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    Any idea what’s the real intention behind it?

    NWO. And whatever comes with it.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    @Commentator Mike

    Well....I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.

    So far the execution of the agenda has been just annoying.
    I guess we are, still, in the testing phase. Round of panic input, round of squeeze.

    Now, "they" have touched a bit of circuses but, still, not breads, really. THAT is what will, IMHO, literally make or break the exercise.

    I have a vague feeling "they" are on the clock here. That makes all this a bit dangerous, but, at the same time, promising.
    I mean, for ages "we" have been waiting for SHTF scenario. Well....could be coming within months now.

    Looking at the 'alt' sphere doesn't look promising. True, most writers are retirees, and breads are still OK.

    Interesting times.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Commentator Mike

  188. @china-russia-all-the-way
    I want to mention the first official report on state television of the virus was on December 31. The Western media does not want to acknowledge the first report was quite early because it would derail the cover up narrative. A widely read WSJ story reconstructing the timeline in December and January even entirely omits this event!

    * CGTN, December 31: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN8NKtXYl2Q
    * CGTN, January 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIhCVfL7nbM
    * WSJ story: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932?emailToken=01976f1697c2a8982aad03d7ed834117rStVB2BHYFW6LZvU9pt+pE/a/QCwVryKs5L0hhsnySGRLF5xrl9VWuD0Bk8ciQvOR789+zv2TqUY4DEmXgyEjx3MmU+24j7TQk7RZ3WrRDEkPmoi2SVWvtsupVTAt0f7&reflink=article_copyURL_share

    Many things were done wrong in January. Communication was poor with the WHO in the first 2 weeks. Repeated claims were made of no evidence of human to human transmission until January 20. But people generally assumed that it could be transmitted human to human even without official confirmation. As we have seen in Italy and now pretty soon in Spain, the real challenge of this virus was not shoddy government supplied information but the surge of the virus. It suddenly barrels out of control and overwhelms hospitals in a matter of days.

    However,unlike what the Western media would have you believe, there was no cover up, which I define to mean completely shutting out information for an extended period. The police warning to the eight doctors for social media messages warning about a SARS like virus occurred on December 30. This accelerated public disclosure because on December 30 public health authorities in Wuhan announced the virus on social media.

    On the evening of 30 December 2019, an "urgent notice on the treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause" was issued by the Wuhan Municipal Health Committee on its Weibo social media account. It was reported that since the beginning of December, there had been "a successive series of patients with unexplained pneumonia"—27 suspected cases in total, seven of which were in critical condition and 18 were stable, two of which were on the verge of being discharged soon. The Wuhan Municipal Health Committee reported to the WHO that 27 people had been diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown cause. Most were stallholders from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, seven of whom were in critical condition. The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission also made a public announcement regarding the situation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_in_December_2019_%E2%80%93_January_2020#30_December
     

    Replies: @yakushimaru

    Also in China, there is a large audience of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. So, even though they are not “official” channels, the fact is many Chinese were in the know around Jan 1st. But people were simply not sure about its seriousness. After all, over the years, there were a number of this and that virus flu happening, virtually all of them were pretty localized, small damage events.

    More regrettable is that the two expert groups sent by China CDC were also not sure about its seriousness until too late. In hindsight, the game theoretic mechanism design of China CDC (vs local government) is probably no good. And local personnel arrangements in key positions were also pretty bad.

  189. @Just Passing Through
    The most prevalent 'conspiracy theory' as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @utu, @Daniel Chieh, @GammaRay, @Astuteobservor II

    The wet markets simply reflect the “developing” nature of a developing country. That is to say, the majority of the world can hardly laugh at it wholeheartedly.

    And, what really matters, is how the world comes through the current situation. The CCP so far managed to pull the country back from a Chernobyl kind of disaster, but the economy is still hanging. The blame game is really just small potatoes.

    • Agree: GammaRay
    • Replies: @last straw
    @yakushimaru

    Wuhan is among China's most developed areas. There is really no excuse for the local government to allow the existence of wet market over there after SARS, although the event itself was a natural disaster.

  190. @Kim
    @utu

    I wonder how many years will be cut off the life expectancy of people who lose their jobs or businesses because the international economy has been shut down for fear of a bad case of the Chinese sniffles?

    After all, these calculations must be available, right?

    Surely, somewhere in the depths of the Government Accounting Office in Washington there is a triple-locked safe guarded with moving infared beams that can cut through tungsten that contains documents that show the precise value of a human life, calculated by CPAs and organized by age, sex, occupation, and region.

    Why do I say "surely"? Because if not, then on what basis are the idiots in Washington making the decisions that they are making? If they do not have such figures, how can they decide what are acceptable losses, how can they model the impact on the economy in the near and more distant future? Who is expendable and why? And where?

    We must have these calculations, otherwise on what basis, according to what figures and what calculations did Trump decide to shut down travael from Europe? At first the fat nincompoop even announced the shut down of even the transport of goods! Was this decision simply random? Did he toss a coin?

    Please don't tell me this was all decided off figures scribbled on the back of an envelope. Or on the basis of some white House intern's overnight research and subsequent guardily-colored PowerPoint.

    Please don't tell me the place is run on such an unsophisticated and uniformed basis.

    What prices are they putting on various human lives in their decision making? Would we be able to find out through a FOIA application? Somehow, I am thinking not. I think they are making their decisions with one thumb up their butts because they are all cardboard cut-outs and idiots.

    Replies: @utu, @Ludwig

    BTW transport of goods To Europe was not cut off (that was Trump misspeaking either by adding a “not” or not adding another “not” to make a double negative.

    On the price of a human life: very frankly it is whatever that society puts on it based on the cause of death. For example, in the US, there would be great resistance to taking away guns/decreasing speed limits/limiting soda cup sizes/mandatory self-isolation in case of the Flu all of which can save significant life. In these cases lives are “cheap”.

    This is an election year in the US. Every COVID-19 death is a boon for the Democrats, blow to Trump like it would be in a terrorist attack. Similarly for drop in stock market / growth. The Trump admin has to thread the needle to make sure deaths are contained (esp as compared to Europe) while not cratering economically till November.

    Long story short: the price of a life is not fixed. A 90 year old dying of poverty has zero value to Americans. A 90 year old dying of Coronavirus is worth a lot.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @Ludwig


    The Trump admin has to thread the needle to make sure deaths are contained (esp as compared to Europe) while not cratering economically till November.
     
    The best thing they can do is controlled deflation of the financial markets until Corona is under control.

    Hyperinflating the dollar to worthlessness in a meaningless attempt to keep asset prices artificially high is the absolute worst course of action and will lead to mass civil unrest, possibly worse.
  191. Two big wildcards in this:-

    1. What are the long-term effects to health after so called recovery?, being 25, infertile and left with the lungs of an 80-year-old with emphysema (as some suggest) is not much to live for.

    2. Immunity – does it happen? Or do those already weakened by the first strike get it again and again each year until it kills them?

    3. I presume the author is suggesting the seasonal permanence of COVID19 comes from it mutating into multiple forms since a vaccine seams a sure thing in 12-18months?

  192. This is turning into WWTP or World War Toilet Paper.

    Beavis was ahead of his time.

  193. @Commentator Mike
    @peterAUS


    Any idea what’s the real intention behind it?
     
    NWO. And whatever comes with it.

    Replies: @peterAUS

    Well….I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.

    So far the execution of the agenda has been just annoying.
    I guess we are, still, in the testing phase. Round of panic input, round of squeeze.

    Now, “they” have touched a bit of circuses but, still, not breads, really. THAT is what will, IMHO, literally make or break the exercise.

    I have a vague feeling “they” are on the clock here. That makes all this a bit dangerous, but, at the same time, promising.
    I mean, for ages “we” have been waiting for SHTF scenario. Well….could be coming within months now.

    Looking at the ‘alt’ sphere doesn’t look promising. True, most writers are retirees, and breads are still OK.

    Interesting times.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
    @peterAUS


    Well….I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.
     
    Expect a big push for a cashless society, some type of social credit system similar to what Beijing has implemented, curfews, and much tighter tracking of your physical movement.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Commentator Mike
    @peterAUS

    Perhaps the growing xenophobia, the hatred, mistrust, and suspicion of foreigners, as a result of this panic doesn't tie in with the goals of the globalists but I think they can work it into their plans. People are now even hating on Italians and those who have recently been to Italy or associated with them. I'm not personally like that but if it helps the cause of the sovereignists I'm not much complaining. And if all the withholding of medical services to the ill and elderly of one's own nation (since they're sending so many medical staff into self-isolation because they were in contact with a suspected coronavirus carrier, telling the ill not to bother turning up at hospitals and clinics as their facilities are stretched, etc.) leads to a lower regard for life, well, maybe those Greek border guards could start using live rounds. Anyway, the Afghanis and Pakistanis who now make up the bulk of the immigrants heading to Europe have all made their way through Iran so even less reason to let them in. And if the coronavirus kills off many of the geriatrics holding office and the old rich bastards, that's not so bad either. Those Aussies living in the outback have nothing to worry about and can watch the developing chaos and panic from a safe distance.

    That Andre Vitchek must be one of the biggest globetrotters on UR as he's always crossing borders and continents, but he hasn't posted an article for a while now. The coronavirus must have inconvenienced his travels so he should update us on how he's coping with this. Perhaps he's in some quarantine somewhere, but surely they have Internet connections to send us some first-hand account of what't it's like in there. I have my doubts that the masses will see through this farce to rise against the growing totalitarianism but he may have other ideas. Yes, interesting times.

    Replies: @peterAUS

  194. @Antares
    Despite all speculations and safety concerns, the US Army will conduct the largest military training in 25 years in Europe, with over 20.000 American participants moving into Europe rolling out over mainly six European countries and later return to the States. So the virus is either relatively harmless or part of American warfare.

    Defender Europe 20 is to take place in april and may this year.

    https://www.voltairenet.org/article209437.html

    Replies: @NobodyKnowsImaDog

    There’s a third possibility you’re not accounting for: the US military doesn’t give a shit about its’ troops, and will expose them to huge risk for no reason other than pride, stupidity, or greed.

    For a very short list:
    Agent Orange
    Open air nuclear testing on soldiers
    Depleted uranium shells
    UCP Camo (selected despite being the worst performing camo in their own tests)
    Original Bradley design
    Humvee design
    Toxic waste on Army bases
    VA medical system

  195. @Just Passing Through
    The most prevalent 'conspiracy theory' as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @utu, @Daniel Chieh, @GammaRay, @Astuteobservor II

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets.

    But they keep working on the PR:

    China sends medical supplies, experts to help Italy battle coronavirus
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-respirators/china-sends-medical-supplies-experts-to-help-italy-battle-coronavirus-idUSKBN2101IM

    “A team of nine Chinese medical staff arrived late on Thursday with some 30 tonnes of equipment on a flight organized by the Chinese Red Cross.”

    “In contrast to China, Italy’s partners in the European Union earlier this month refused Rome’s requests for help with medical supplies as they looked to stockpile face masks and other equipment to help their own citizens.”

    China’s richest man Jack Ma donates one million face masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the US as Beijing and Washington accuse each other of being the origin of the disease
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8105199/Chinas-richest-man-Jack-Ma-donates-one-million-face-masks-500-000-test-kits-US.html

    Earlier this week, Ma announced he was donating 1.8million face masks and 100,000 coronavirus test kits to Europe.

    Last week, Ma mailed 1million masks to Japan and South Korea respectively, according to Jack Ma Charity Foundation. The two neighbouring countries of China are also being ravaged by the contagion.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
    @utu

    Why does everything needs to be PR?

    I sent 2000 masks to my friends in Italy. Think about what you can do.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Philip Owen

  196. so far, Anatoly has at least proven Steven Pinker wrong about one thing.

    View post on imgur.com

    • Replies: @another anon
    @prime noticer


    so far, Anatoly has at least proven Steven Pinker wrong about one thing.
     
    ??? In this article, AK talks about the whole thing as SP - the virus does not care about borders.

    But all their efforts would be in vain if just a few (or even one) defeatist, incompetent, or plain stupidly-run countries decline to take the necessary steps, and thereby cut two years off global life expectancy into the indefinite future.

    How you treat epidemic is not your "internal affair". If some third world shithole countries leave the disease run wild, they will be source of infection for the whole world, for forever.
    What should the civilized world do? Build high beautiful walls around US and UK and guard them permanently, or use more ... proactive approach?
  197. I believe it is way,,, way too early to crunch the numbers in any meaningful way. We have no clue as to how many have had CV and got over it without seeing the doctor. The Center for Deception Control (CDC) outrageously lies about the flu numbers. Who’s to say they are not lying here. Also from what I read, the test kits are notoriously unreliable giving a false positive 49% of the time.
    Also sending samples to only one recipient (CDC) is asking for trouble. One test kit (CDC) again is asking for trouble. Using numbers doled out by one source (CDC) is more trouble as it could easily skew numbers to indicate an agenda.

    Remember the Measles ‘epidemic’ that didn’t get traction. Remember the media doing the same with it as they are doing with CV. Remember SARS, Ebola, Hong Kong Flu. Well somehow they managed to get traction with CV. I think it is the Stock Market controlled crash that changed peoples view. Even sites that claim never to trust government are following along like poodles.

    Trusting government numbers whether it’s CDC, WHO or BLS can be hazardous to your health.

  198. CNN is highly incentivized to shout every new death from the rooftops. this virus is literally divine intervention from god for the Democrats, who are going to use their near total control of television media to create as much hysteria as possible. after throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Trump for 3 years, sheer total luck is what could knock him out of office. ironically, a virus from China, a country which Trump specifically campaigned against – correctly.

    so, unless CNN starts reporting a lot more deaths soon, we might begin to figure that the fatality rate is lower than 1% in the US at least.

  199. Lady Corona is a harsh mistress.

    But no, the rest of the West isn’t “set to join” northern Italy. The outbreak there was due to Chinese textile/leather workers from Wuhan, all living in the same apartment buildings, returning from visiting Wuhan and bringing the virus with them. It was a massive influx of cases in a short time. That is not the case anywhere else, and other countries are taking increasingly strong measures.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Hegar


    ROME (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Milan believes Italy’s coronavirus epidemic might have come to the country via Germany and not directly from China as many experts initially assumed.

    Scientists have been hunting for the so-called “patient zero” ever since the contagion first came to light in the prosperous northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

    After extensive analysis, the Milan team has not yet identified the individual at the root of the worst outbreak in Europe, but they have matched the Italian genetic sequencing of the virus here to a case that emerged in Germany in January.
     
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists-idUSKBN20Y35B

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @Philip Owen

  200. @Philip Owen
    @ken

    Because not everyone over 75 has stopped contributing. For example US presidential candidates.

    At a 1/5 death rate, there is a 1/2 chance of one of Trump, Biden and Sanders dying if infected. There is a 1/3 chance of one of two presidential candidates over 70 dying if infected.

    Replies: @Kim

    Because not everyone over 75 has stopped contributing. For example US presidential candidates.

    I think that we must have different definitions of “contributing”.

  201. @LondonBob
    @sudden death

    Given the number of 'names' testing positive this highly contagious virus has already spread widely, the problem then is for others to explain why so few deaths.

    Looks quite likely Trump might have it.

    Replies: @Kim

    Nothing says “Illuminati Hoax” like the fact that Tom Hanks says he has it.

    If he really had it, you can be sure there would also be lots of dead kids in his vicinity.

  202. @Calculator
    @Johnny Walker Read



    For the thinkers among us ?? Dude, you are addressing a very small percentage. I bet you are one of those optimists who truly believe that what goes on in most people's heads is thinking. You got to stop rolling your weed in pages from Norman Vincent Peale's books. When the media and Covid 19 bloggers and fanatics get going the reason and thinking flee and only panic and fear mongering remain to save the day

    Replies: @Johnny Walker Read

    [MORE]

    When the media and Covid 19 bloggers and fanatics get going the reason and thinking flee and only panic and fear mongering remain to save the day
    Uhhhh…Pretty sure that is what the body of the article I linked to had to say.
    Here’s one that “splains it all a lil’ clearer”. The illness in China had many, many causes, of which CV19 was probably only one of those causes.
    https://www.henrymakow.com/2020/03/Telomeric-Poisoning-Exacerbates-Coronavirus.html
    P.S. – Nothing but Zig-Zags here bro, we may be po, but we ain’t ghetto…

  203. @LondonBob
    @Uncle Remus

    Only losers with inferiority complexes hold grudges. Winners just move on to their next great achievement.

    Replies: @Kim

    Winners just move on to their next great achievement.

    Where by “winners” you mean “sociopaths” and by “great achievement” you mean “victim”?

  204. @Hegar
    Lady Corona is a harsh mistress.

    But no, the rest of the West isn't "set to join" northern Italy. The outbreak there was due to Chinese textile/leather workers from Wuhan, all living in the same apartment buildings, returning from visiting Wuhan and bringing the virus with them. It was a massive influx of cases in a short time. That is not the case anywhere else, and other countries are taking increasingly strong measures.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    ROME (Reuters) – A team of scientists in Milan believes Italy’s coronavirus epidemic might have come to the country via Germany and not directly from China as many experts initially assumed.

    Scientists have been hunting for the so-called “patient zero” ever since the contagion first came to light in the prosperous northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

    After extensive analysis, the Milan team has not yet identified the individual at the root of the worst outbreak in Europe, but they have matched the Italian genetic sequencing of the virus here to a case that emerged in Germany in January.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists-idUSKBN20Y35B

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @Daniel Chieh

    It also gives a little bit of support to Zhao Lijian's crazy tweets. I mean, if Italy can get it from Germany while Germany having a more restrained and delayed development, what says that Wuhan cannot get it from somewhere else? Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right? Personally I think it is just crazy. One interesting question is: Does this guy read unz.com?

    Replies: @A123, @Tor597

    , @Philip Owen
    @Daniel Chieh

    i have heard reports of 40% mortality rates amongst 60-70 year olds in Italy. Any idea if these are true?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

  205. @utu
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets.

     

    But they keep working on the PR:

    China sends medical supplies, experts to help Italy battle coronavirus
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-respirators/china-sends-medical-supplies-experts-to-help-italy-battle-coronavirus-idUSKBN2101IM

    “A team of nine Chinese medical staff arrived late on Thursday with some 30 tonnes of equipment on a flight organized by the Chinese Red Cross.”

    “In contrast to China, Italy’s partners in the European Union earlier this month refused Rome’s requests for help with medical supplies as they looked to stockpile face masks and other equipment to help their own citizens.”
     

    China's richest man Jack Ma donates one million face masks and 500,000 coronavirus test kits to the US as Beijing and Washington accuse each other of being the origin of the disease
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8105199/Chinas-richest-man-Jack-Ma-donates-one-million-face-masks-500-000-test-kits-US.html

    Earlier this week, Ma announced he was donating 1.8million face masks and 100,000 coronavirus test kits to Europe.

    Last week, Ma mailed 1million masks to Japan and South Korea respectively, according to Jack Ma Charity Foundation. The two neighbouring countries of China are also being ravaged by the contagion.
     

    Replies: @Chinaman

    Why does everything needs to be PR?

    I sent 2000 masks to my friends in Italy. Think about what you can do.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Chinaman

    I assume you mean surgical masks.

    , @Philip Owen
    @Chinaman

    The Brazilian government blocked me from sending 600,000 masks N95F mask to China four weeks ago. A lot of other single use supplies too.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  206. @prime noticer
    so far, Anatoly has at least proven Steven Pinker wrong about one thing.

    https://imgur.com/a/56y5JdK

    Replies: @another anon

    so far, Anatoly has at least proven Steven Pinker wrong about one thing.

    ??? In this article, AK talks about the whole thing as SP – the virus does not care about borders.

    But all their efforts would be in vain if just a few (or even one) defeatist, incompetent, or plain stupidly-run countries decline to take the necessary steps, and thereby cut two years off global life expectancy into the indefinite future.

    How you treat epidemic is not your “internal affair”. If some third world shithole countries leave the disease run wild, they will be source of infection for the whole world, for forever.
    What should the civilized world do? Build high beautiful walls around US and UK and guard them permanently, or use more … proactive approach?

  207. @Dumbo
    @Hempus

    The HIV is a curious virus because people don't die from HIV/AIDS, but from other "opportunist" diseases. Of course, in theory the HIV virus weakens the immune system and that's why people die... But there are also theories that the main cause is not the virus itself but the lifestyle (anal sex, drugs, etc). Who knows?

    About the coronavirus, I think the main cause of death seem to be a form of pneumonia. But the funny thing is that, some people are identified to have pneumonia by CT-scans, and then they are considered to have "COVID-19", but what they have been actually diagnosed with is pneumonia (perhaps by other causes?).

    According to this paper, the other more common COVID-19 test (throat swab samples) has only a ~70% percent reliability. But that was back in February 26, so I don't know now.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200226151951.htm

    Replies: @mike99588, @Hempus

    Thanks for your replay!
    I had one client 1980 who was in the gay scene in NY all the seventies with symptoms later identified as AIDS symptoms. He died 1984 and was one of the first “AIDS victims. One of the favorite drug which was used in the Gay saunas / dark rooms was poppers…”Inhaling nitrites relaxes smooth muscles throughout the body, as well as sphincter muscles of the anus and the vagina”. My client told me that somtimes he had 5 or more sexual contacts an afternoon, sniffing poppers before the act. I by myself had accidentally only one experience with poppers in Spain 1972 directly on the dancefloor of a disco and thought: what a stupid drug! No psychedelic effect, just feeling smooth and a physical heat through the body.

    Serial use of poppers can lead to Kaposi sarcoma and damage of brain and nerv system. The mysterious death of gay people in NY and San Francisco could be easily explained. But then Montagnier / Gallo discovered a new HI-Virus and created a theory of correlation by testing the antibodies of those gay people….telling them they catched a new deadly virus by sex with someone wo had the virus already.

    As I mentioned in my previous comment: there is a type of pneumonia which is not related to a virus….called lung or pulmonary fibrosis.
    But panic and fear after been tested HIV or Covid-19 positive leads often to an acute lung fibrosis by permanent hyperventilation. On the endstadium those people cannot open the lungs anymore because of the growing contraction and shrinking of the alveolus. This is an energy transformation / breathing technique problem and not the result of a deadly virus.

    So if you make a Covid-19 test with a person having a bad flu and the test is positive, then you might see a quick dead…especially if the people think its a weaponised, deadly virus + the horror of isolation tents.
    Stupidly IRGC commander Salami menioned this theory of a weaponised Virus. Such a message is a negative placebo for old people anywhere who have a flu and got tested positive.

    This is a criminal coup against all nations by the big pharma and Vaccination Pope Bill Gates! A very evil attack of the deep state … Trump knows it…and the msm is screeching.

  208. @Chinaman
    @utu

    Why does everything needs to be PR?

    I sent 2000 masks to my friends in Italy. Think about what you can do.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Philip Owen

    I assume you mean surgical masks.

  209. And The Donald continues doing his work.

  210. @Daniel Chieh
    @Hegar


    ROME (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Milan believes Italy’s coronavirus epidemic might have come to the country via Germany and not directly from China as many experts initially assumed.

    Scientists have been hunting for the so-called “patient zero” ever since the contagion first came to light in the prosperous northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

    After extensive analysis, the Milan team has not yet identified the individual at the root of the worst outbreak in Europe, but they have matched the Italian genetic sequencing of the virus here to a case that emerged in Germany in January.
     
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists-idUSKBN20Y35B

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @Philip Owen

    It also gives a little bit of support to Zhao Lijian’s crazy tweets. I mean, if Italy can get it from Germany while Germany having a more restrained and delayed development, what says that Wuhan cannot get it from somewhere else? Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right? Personally I think it is just crazy. One interesting question is: Does this guy read unz.com?

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @A123
    @yakushimaru


    Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right?
     
    I have asked exactly the same question. Covid-19 may have been in the wild for months restrained by local weather. Then the timing of the Chinese announcement does look suspicious and convenient.

    What are the odds that the the "discovery" was timed to allow scapegoating of U.S. troops? This could deflect blame from incompetence at a premiere national laboratory. Party operatives trying to save their own skins by blaming the U.S. citizens.

    What is more plausible:

    -- A complex and inept attack?
    -- A few middle managers protecting themselves after an accident?

    Both options work equally well for the timing of the announcement.
    _____

    Of course both of those options are still very speculative. Unless multiple credible sources confirm the virus was engineered or weaponized, the most likely scenario is still a natural outbreak.

    Do Wuhan based firms "staff-up" by importing workers from other regions 4-5 weeks before the peak travel boom hits? If so, that could also explain the inconvenient timing. Low paid workers are financially pressed to travel for employment.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Tor597
    @yakushimaru

    What interests me is the fact that this was a particularly deadly flu season in America. It very easily could have been the more restrained S type corona virus in America that was circulating.

    And then the L strain emerged in China either by accident or on purpose.

    Replies: @nickels

  211. @Just Passing Through
    The most prevalent 'conspiracy theory' as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @utu, @Daniel Chieh, @GammaRay, @Astuteobservor II

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters

    I always find this notion that China, or more accurately, the CCP does anything like PR let alone “carefully cultivate” to be hilariously stupid. Perhaps once, before Xi, there was a faction in the Party that actually cared for it enough to make an effort but by and large you’re only going to see the most hamfisted gestures because they neither understand the West nor put a huge priority on it given more pressing concerns.

    The Party these days instead is dealing with endless spam of Xi Jinping thought, the “dove” faction of the CCP has long since been driven out of existence, and the main consideration of Chinese policymaking is domestic politics.

    When China goes out and demands an apology for “the feelings hurt of a billion Chinese people” in one of their typical autistic gestures, it is to try to demonstrate to an internal audience that they “get respect.” Same as when China endlessly promotes the notion of “rise from humiliation.”

    But no, your average CCP member probably spends far more of his time and energy thinking about how to sing Xi Jinping thought and thus intensely parochial concerns over anything international. And as a result, there isn’t much “PR” and what there is, is terrible and stupid because it just isn’t something they put much effort or energy into, especially toward Western audiences.

    • Thanks: Alfred
    • Replies: @random rand
    @Daniel Chieh


    But no, your average CCP member probably spends far more of his time and energy thinking about how to sing Xi Jinping thought and thus intensely parochial concerns over anything international. And as a result, there isn’t much “PR” and what there is, is terrible and stupid because it just isn’t something they put much effort or energy into, especially toward Western audiences.
     
    Which also explains why Chinese ambassadors pick random ass fights by writing ridiculously inflammatory letters and pissing off the host governments enough that officials in the host governments demand they get kicked out. Gotta look macho for the audience back home. They can't always get away with this though if they're based in a country that the high ups consider important. Like the ambassador to Russia who was demanding the Moscow government stop discriminating against Chinese tourists. Russia being Russia obviously didn't give a damn and since the higher ups in China actually want to maintain a good relationship with Russia probably told the ambassador to quit it.

    That being said, someone higher up probably decided that having your whole foreign ministry act like autistic 4chaners is probably a bad idea and decided to unleash the Jack Ma for a softer more friendly approach to propaganda. Jack Ma created a twitter account just to post about how he was donating masks and test kits to America. Pretty effective given that America actually needs them.
    , @random rand
    @Daniel Chieh


    But no, your average CCP member probably spends far more of his time and energy thinking about how to sing Xi Jinping thought and thus intensely parochial concerns over anything international. And as a result, there isn’t much “PR” and what there is, is terrible and stupid because it just isn’t something they put much effort or energy into, especially toward Western audiences.
     
    Which also explains why Chinese ambassadors pick random ass fights by writing ridiculously inflammatory letters and pissing off the host governments enough that officials in the host governments demand they get kicked out. Gotta look macho for the audience back home. They can't always get away with this though if they're based in a country that the high ups consider important. Like the ambassador to Russia who was demanding the Moscow government stop discriminating against Chinese tourists. Russia being Russia obviously didn't give a damn and since the higher ups in China actually want to maintain a good relationship with Russia probably told the ambassador to quit it.

    That being said, someone higher up probably decided that having your whole foreign ministry act like autistic 4chaners is probably a bad idea and decided to unleash the Jack Ma for a softer more friendly approach to propaganda. Jack Ma created a twitter account just to post about how he was donating masks and test kits to America. Pretty effective given that America actually needs them.

    Replies: @yakushimaru

  212. @yakushimaru
    @Daniel Chieh

    It also gives a little bit of support to Zhao Lijian's crazy tweets. I mean, if Italy can get it from Germany while Germany having a more restrained and delayed development, what says that Wuhan cannot get it from somewhere else? Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right? Personally I think it is just crazy. One interesting question is: Does this guy read unz.com?

    Replies: @A123, @Tor597

    Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right?

    I have asked exactly the same question. Covid-19 may have been in the wild for months restrained by local weather. Then the timing of the Chinese announcement does look suspicious and convenient.

    What are the odds that the the “discovery” was timed to allow scapegoating of U.S. troops? This could deflect blame from incompetence at a premiere national laboratory. Party operatives trying to save their own skins by blaming the U.S. citizens.

    What is more plausible:

    — A complex and inept attack?
    — A few middle managers protecting themselves after an accident?

    Both options work equally well for the timing of the announcement.
    _____

    Of course both of those options are still very speculative. Unless multiple credible sources confirm the virus was engineered or weaponized, the most likely scenario is still a natural outbreak.

    Do Wuhan based firms “staff-up” by importing workers from other regions 4-5 weeks before the peak travel boom hits? If so, that could also explain the inconvenient timing. Low paid workers are financially pressed to travel for employment.

    PEACE 😇

  213. @Ludwig
    @LondonBob

    This is ultimately an impractical idea. If you thought the resistance to vaccines to children was an issue (even though for argument sakes 1 in 100,000 comes down with some disease/autism due to the antibiotics messing up the a kid’s biome which in rare cases has been found to be linked to autism), this is going to encounter massive resistance.

    Firstly scientists are not sure why kids are not as impacted as adults so far. There are various theories as to why but as a parent I won’t offer my child to purposely be infected just on a theory. Even flu vaccines have side effects to kids: let alone an unknown coronavirus. It is in some sense as bad as saying let the elderly die so that hospitals can focus on more “productive” members of society. At the least various cultures will have to decide what their value systems are. (I am sure Sparta would have had no problem containing this. Kill any who look like they have it.)

    What China did - locking down at different levels based on severity, so Wuhan was locked down at the neighborhood level (over 9000), at the level of the city and then the province and also focused on other clusters - did and can work. Outside Hubei - 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve. That’s what needs to be done.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @LondonBob

    Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve.

    If China’s achievement at containment is as reported, then the decision of the the US, Britain and Canada to let the virus run through the population, cannot be a matter of unavoidable necessity but, rather, it would seem, a decision based on economic considerations.

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West. But then coming from Boris Johnson, who has announced the pregnancy of his current girl friend before completing the divorce of his current wife, that’s not something to be surprised at, I suppose.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @CanSpeccy

    Concerning the avoidable deaths due to the US decision to let the virus run through the population, Moon of Alabama cites the NY Times:


    As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
     
    That's versus 3177 so far reported deaths in China.
    , @The Wild Geese Howard
    @CanSpeccy


    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West.
     
    Is it?

    The Romans and other European societies would leave unwanted/unplanned children outside to perish from exposure because they believed that they could not support those new arrivals.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/roman-exposure-of-infants-118370

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    , @Alfred
    @CanSpeccy


    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one
     
    Can you think of a better way to "save the NHS"?

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

  214. @Desert Fox
    The coronavirus was created by the Mossad and the CIA and MI6 as a bioweapon attack on China and Russia and Iran and I hope it backfires on these satanic bastards!

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    The coronavirus was created by the Mossad and the CIA and MI6 as a bioweapon attack on China and Russia and Iran and I hope it backfires on these satanic bastards!

    You don’t know that. And the fact that the virus has now infected and is likely to kill many more in the West than in China, makes your claim seems unlikely, although admittedly it is not impossible, given the general stupidity and depravity of Western leadership.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    @CanSpeccy

    The laws of unintended consequences and of Karmic retribution are always at work.

  215. @Just Passing Through
    The most prevalent 'conspiracy theory' as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @utu, @Daniel Chieh, @GammaRay, @Astuteobservor II

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Ive seen some people suggest that this is currently the case but I think that people that suggest this are usually projecting their own desires with regards to china. Will this whole corona-virus thing damage china’s PR image? definitely. Will it be lasting? Most likely not. You seriously overestimate how much people care, after a few news cycles the whole china corona-virus thing will literally be a thing of the past.

    More importantly is the fact that this whole corona virus thing will not isolate china like china-hawks are hoping it will and the reason why is because there are far too many people who stand to make lots of $$$ by working with china. Oh so there are some nationalist countries who don’t want to work with china anymore? Thats fine, there are plenty of other countries that are willing to step up and take their place instead. Put simply, talk is cheap, nationalist ideology will largely go out the window when it comes to greed and the desire to make a profit. The relatively small proportion of right wing people who want to see china isolated by a rising wave of nationalist sentiment largely overestimate the fickleness and unreliability of the masses. The alt-right pipe dream of china becoming an international leper after all this blows over is just that, a pipe dream.

    Ive seen far too many commenters (both here and in other places) who genuinely think that the corona virus incident is going to make people seriously question globalization and immigration. I hate to say it but the only people that will be drawing that conclusion will be people who already think that way. “Normies” are not going to draw that conclusion because they are either indifferent to it or they already accept globalization and immigration as a foregone conclusion and it wouldn’t occur to them to question it. To them, the whole corona virus thing will simply be understood as one of those things that happens, like natural disasters, global warming, etc etc; the corona virus incident isn’t going to cause them to seriously question anything. The alt-right drastically overestimates how much people care, about anything

    on an unrelated note, does anyone else feel like its pretty significant that the chinese have publicly signed off on the conspiracy theory of the US being the origin of the corona virus?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3

    The fact that the chinese government has apparently given this theory the green light is pretty shocking. I always imagine the CCP as being extremely careful when it comes to stuff like this, therefore the fact that they went public with it is a pretty big deal. What this implies is that perhaps the CCP actually has some credible evidence to back up their claims, if they didn’t then they wouldn’t dare take a chance of losing massive face by spreading a blatantly untrue conspiracy theory.

    IMO I think that the CCP may actually have some credible evidence to back up their claim and at this point in time it wouldn’t surprise me if maybe they are forcing the US behind closed doors to give some concessions in return for allowing the US to claim that the whole corona virus thing was an accident and not a deliberate act of biological warfare. If this is indeed the case then china does have the US by the short and curlies. That being said, im still equally open to the possibility that maybe the whole corona virus incident was a chinese fuck up from the getgo and maybe this is just a really hamhanded attempt at counter-propaganda, but that just seems so unlikely given how cautious the CCP would normally be when it comes to something like this.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    @GammaRay

    There is all kinds of signaling from each side.

    First was how quickly and decisively China acted once they realized what they were dealing with. They acted like this was a bioweapon from the get go.

    They would not cooperate with American virologists for instance.

    Next on the US side, is the reluctance to test. Why is that when they know they will look bad for jot testing. What does America have to hide?

    Lastly, the US held secret meetings that excluded infectious control civilians because China was a topic of concern. Why would that matter unless this was being viewed as an act if war?

    , @LondonBob
    @GammaRay

    America is waging hybrid warfare, such claims are no more implausible than the claims made against other countries on the receiving end of such campaigns. Personally I approve this Chinese move, force your opponent to deny and put them on the defensive. That it is ridiculous is in some ways even better.

  216. @for-the-record
    @Jaakko Raipala

    Things only just blew up in Finland & Scandinavia and you’ll be hearing a totally different story soon.

    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).

    Similarly, Scandinavia is today where Italy was on 3 March, but on that date Italy had 79 deaths.

    Third example: Scandinavia has more cases today than Spain on 11 March, but on that date Spain had 55 deaths.

    So it seems to me that even if the number of cases in Scandinavia is skyrocketing, it is not certain (yet) that the number of deaths will.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @last straw

    So cases are starting to go up dramatically, right? But why are deaths still so stubbornly low. In terms of number of cases, Scandinavia (+ Iceland) is today where China was on 26 January (around 2,600). But at that point China had 80 deaths, while Scandinavian deaths are 2 (0.08% of reported cases).

    There were many undiagnosed cases in China initially.

  217. @Daniel Chieh
    @Hegar


    ROME (Reuters) - A team of scientists in Milan believes Italy’s coronavirus epidemic might have come to the country via Germany and not directly from China as many experts initially assumed.

    Scientists have been hunting for the so-called “patient zero” ever since the contagion first came to light in the prosperous northern region of Lombardy on Feb. 21.

    After extensive analysis, the Milan team has not yet identified the individual at the root of the worst outbreak in Europe, but they have matched the Italian genetic sequencing of the virus here to a case that emerged in Germany in January.
     
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-scientists-idUSKBN20Y35B

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @Philip Owen

    i have heard reports of 40% mortality rates amongst 60-70 year olds in Italy. Any idea if these are true?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Philip Owen

    Your guess is as good as mine:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    The death rate today of closed cases was 40 percent, but that's all ages. I'm guessing most of that is significantly above 60.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Philip Owen

    You should relocate to Russia for now. I don't think Boris is good for your health.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  218. @Greg Bacon
    @Just Passing Through

    Watch the 2011 movie, "Contagion," that has a nasty bug that starts in Hong Kong, rushes around the world, killing tens of millions...and was caused by a bat.

    Amazing how Hollywood can dope those scenarios out!

    I agree that this Corona is a US man-made bio-weapon, as its been called a 'branch' of Corona, and not the tree. In other words, it didn't get there by itself.

    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they'd hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don't think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they’d hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don’t think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.

    We Americans didn’t do a damn thing and you have no evidence otherwise (and yes, I’ve read the many assertions here at Sinophile Central, but as of yet, still nothing other than “The U.S. did it cause I say so!”).

    China is the one that has sent us children’s toys coated with lead paint. China is the one that has sent us defective insulin. China is the one that sends us Fentanyl. I would say that the Chinese are getting a taste of their own medicine. They are doing the very opposite of “quite nicely,” no matter what your fevered leftwing fantasies tell you.

    It shows how sick some people here are. The godless, communist, psychopathic Chinese screw the pooch, and we get yet another rendition of It’s all Americas’ Fault, sung in the key of dickhead minor.

  219. @JimB
    If you live long enough, you will die of a Chinese virus. I hope cheap iPhone 3's, Walmart crap, and Panda Express were worth trading for years of life. FU Joe Biden and Bill Clinton.

    Replies: @last straw

    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.

    • Replies: @JimB
    @last straw


    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.
     
    Nah. It was made by the Chinese, who have most of the current cases, and it will recur. Time to quarantine the Sick Man of Asia for at least a decade.

    Replies: @last straw

    , @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @last straw

    I betcha neither of those things is true, you communist sonovabitch.

  220. @Chinaman
    @utu

    Why does everything needs to be PR?

    I sent 2000 masks to my friends in Italy. Think about what you can do.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Philip Owen

    The Brazilian government blocked me from sending 600,000 masks N95F mask to China four weeks ago. A lot of other single use supplies too.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    A good decision from the Brazilian government's perspective. This is more N95 masks than some countries have?

    American authorities only had 12 million N95 masks in reserve in February.


    Brazilian government blocked me from sending 600,000 masks N95F mask to China four weeks ago
     
  221. @CanSpeccy
    @Ludwig


    Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve.
     
    If China’s achievement at containment is as reported, then the decision of the the US, Britain and Canada to let the virus run through the population, cannot be a matter of unavoidable necessity but, rather, it would seem, a decision based on economic considerations.

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West. But then coming from Boris Johnson, who has announced the pregnancy of his current girl friend before completing the divorce of his current wife, that’s not something to be surprised at, I suppose.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Alfred

    Concerning the avoidable deaths due to the US decision to let the virus run through the population, Moon of Alabama cites the NY Times:

    As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

    That’s versus 3177 so far reported deaths in China.

  222. 3769452

    Gosh, you seem to know pretty much everything.

  223. @yakushimaru
    @Just Passing Through

    The wet markets simply reflect the "developing" nature of a developing country. That is to say, the majority of the world can hardly laugh at it wholeheartedly.

    And, what really matters, is how the world comes through the current situation. The CCP so far managed to pull the country back from a Chernobyl kind of disaster, but the economy is still hanging. The blame game is really just small potatoes.

    Replies: @last straw

    Wuhan is among China’s most developed areas. There is really no excuse for the local government to allow the existence of wet market over there after SARS, although the event itself was a natural disaster.

  224. @Philip Owen
    @Daniel Chieh

    i have heard reports of 40% mortality rates amongst 60-70 year olds in Italy. Any idea if these are true?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

    Your guess is as good as mine:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    The death rate today of closed cases was 40 percent, but that’s all ages. I’m guessing most of that is significantly above 60.

  225. @last straw
    @JimB

    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.

    Replies: @JimB, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.

    Nah. It was made by the Chinese, who have most of the current cases, and it will recur. Time to quarantine the Sick Man of Asia for at least a decade.

    • Replies: @last straw
    @JimB


    Nah. It was made by the Chinese, who have most of the current cases, and it will recur. Time to quarantine the Sick Man of Asia for at least a decade.
     
    The average Americans are so thoroughly brainwashed by their own MSM about China, they just do not know better: China overtakes U.S. for healthy lifespan: WHO data

    Meanwhile in Sacramento:

    Public health officials in California’s state capital region announced this week they have stopped tracing the contacts of patients diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. They’ve also ceased recommending quarantines for residents exposed to people confirmed to have the virus.

    https://californiahealthline.org/news/testing-shortages-force-extreme-shift-in-strategy-by-local-health-officials/

    Guess which country will have the virus for the next 10 years?

  226. @Ludwig
    @Kim

    BTW transport of goods To Europe was not cut off (that was Trump misspeaking either by adding a “not” or not adding another “not” to make a double negative.

    On the price of a human life: very frankly it is whatever that society puts on it based on the cause of death. For example, in the US, there would be great resistance to taking away guns/decreasing speed limits/limiting soda cup sizes/mandatory self-isolation in case of the Flu all of which can save significant life. In these cases lives are “cheap”.

    This is an election year in the US. Every COVID-19 death is a boon for the Democrats, blow to Trump like it would be in a terrorist attack. Similarly for drop in stock market / growth. The Trump admin has to thread the needle to make sure deaths are contained (esp as compared to Europe) while not cratering economically till November.

    Long story short: the price of a life is not fixed. A 90 year old dying of poverty has zero value to Americans. A 90 year old dying of Coronavirus is worth a lot.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard

    The Trump admin has to thread the needle to make sure deaths are contained (esp as compared to Europe) while not cratering economically till November.

    The best thing they can do is controlled deflation of the financial markets until Corona is under control.

    Hyperinflating the dollar to worthlessness in a meaningless attempt to keep asset prices artificially high is the absolute worst course of action and will lead to mass civil unrest, possibly worse.

  227. @peterAUS
    @Commentator Mike

    Well....I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.

    So far the execution of the agenda has been just annoying.
    I guess we are, still, in the testing phase. Round of panic input, round of squeeze.

    Now, "they" have touched a bit of circuses but, still, not breads, really. THAT is what will, IMHO, literally make or break the exercise.

    I have a vague feeling "they" are on the clock here. That makes all this a bit dangerous, but, at the same time, promising.
    I mean, for ages "we" have been waiting for SHTF scenario. Well....could be coming within months now.

    Looking at the 'alt' sphere doesn't look promising. True, most writers are retirees, and breads are still OK.

    Interesting times.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Commentator Mike

    Well….I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.

    Expect a big push for a cashless society, some type of social credit system similar to what Beijing has implemented, curfews, and much tighter tracking of your physical movement.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    If it's going to happen anyway (it already is) then I would at least like to see some benefits from it, like not permanently losing 2 years of my life expectancy.

    China at least uses it to for some nice things, like suppressing vice and controlling an pandemic, which benefits own people.

    UK: "Herd immunity" yo, if you die that's too bad, there's a billion Africans out there we can replace you with.

    Replies: @yakushimaru

  228. @yakushimaru
    @Daniel Chieh

    It also gives a little bit of support to Zhao Lijian's crazy tweets. I mean, if Italy can get it from Germany while Germany having a more restrained and delayed development, what says that Wuhan cannot get it from somewhere else? Also, if summer dampens the virulence of this virus, who says the whole show must have started in Wuhan in Nov? It might as well have started in last summer right? Personally I think it is just crazy. One interesting question is: Does this guy read unz.com?

    Replies: @A123, @Tor597

    What interests me is the fact that this was a particularly deadly flu season in America. It very easily could have been the more restrained S type corona virus in America that was circulating.

    And then the L strain emerged in China either by accident or on purpose.

    • Agree: Spanky
    • Replies: @nickels
    @Tor597

    Wife and I had the worst flu of either our lives.
    Literally five days in bed getting up only an hour or so a day.
    My lungs squeaked for 3 weeks. They started to clog worse after leaving bed for about a week.
    All I remember is fever and something about fog and a helicopter.

    Replies: @Tor597

  229. @Philip Owen
    @Daniel Chieh

    i have heard reports of 40% mortality rates amongst 60-70 year olds in Italy. Any idea if these are true?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Daniel Chieh

    You should relocate to Russia for now. I don’t think Boris is good for your health.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Daniel Chieh

    I would not recommend Russia for escaping this epidemic (although there might be a few days of opportunity to fly to Russia or Ukraine now before UK citizens will be banned from entry).

    Epidemic control was becoming excellent by late Soviet times, and arguably the USSR had probably the best anti-epidemic state capacity in the world in the 1970s.

    Although they would quarantine whole cities, without reporting it in the media. For example, Odessa was quarantined and impassably sealed from the world in 1970, to prevent a cholera epidemic. But this was a secret, that could only be reported after they had destroyed the epidemic.

    However, there is likely 30-40 years of deterioration in state capacity for epidemic control, although to be fair Rospotrebnadzor seems skillful in banning Roshen chocolates, or wine from Georgia.

    Today, public hospitals will be rapidly overwhelmed, there are not many ventilators, there are lots of vulnerable populations who could flood a hospital (e.g. world's largest population of HIV infected people outside Africa; and quite many people with diagnosed and undiagnosed asthma, due to air pollution in certain cities).

    Aside from the lack of funding in healthcare, state capacity for quarantining is not going to at the same level as in China (again, this is not Soviet times, unfortunately from a perspective of brutal ways of epidemic control).

    The best options now are either relocate to self-isolation with all the toilet paper you could buy, or going somewhere where warm weather and high air temperatures will limit the airborne spread of virus.

  230. @GammaRay
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.
     
    Ive seen some people suggest that this is currently the case but I think that people that suggest this are usually projecting their own desires with regards to china. Will this whole corona-virus thing damage china's PR image? definitely. Will it be lasting? Most likely not. You seriously overestimate how much people care, after a few news cycles the whole china corona-virus thing will literally be a thing of the past.

    More importantly is the fact that this whole corona virus thing will not isolate china like china-hawks are hoping it will and the reason why is because there are far too many people who stand to make lots of $$$ by working with china. Oh so there are some nationalist countries who don't want to work with china anymore? Thats fine, there are plenty of other countries that are willing to step up and take their place instead. Put simply, talk is cheap, nationalist ideology will largely go out the window when it comes to greed and the desire to make a profit. The relatively small proportion of right wing people who want to see china isolated by a rising wave of nationalist sentiment largely overestimate the fickleness and unreliability of the masses. The alt-right pipe dream of china becoming an international leper after all this blows over is just that, a pipe dream.

    Ive seen far too many commenters (both here and in other places) who genuinely think that the corona virus incident is going to make people seriously question globalization and immigration. I hate to say it but the only people that will be drawing that conclusion will be people who already think that way. "Normies" are not going to draw that conclusion because they are either indifferent to it or they already accept globalization and immigration as a foregone conclusion and it wouldn't occur to them to question it. To them, the whole corona virus thing will simply be understood as one of those things that happens, like natural disasters, global warming, etc etc; the corona virus incident isn't going to cause them to seriously question anything. The alt-right drastically overestimates how much people care, about anything

    on an unrelated note, does anyone else feel like its pretty significant that the chinese have publicly signed off on the conspiracy theory of the US being the origin of the corona virus?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3

    The fact that the chinese government has apparently given this theory the green light is pretty shocking. I always imagine the CCP as being extremely careful when it comes to stuff like this, therefore the fact that they went public with it is a pretty big deal. What this implies is that perhaps the CCP actually has some credible evidence to back up their claims, if they didn't then they wouldn't dare take a chance of losing massive face by spreading a blatantly untrue conspiracy theory.

    IMO I think that the CCP may actually have some credible evidence to back up their claim and at this point in time it wouldn't surprise me if maybe they are forcing the US behind closed doors to give some concessions in return for allowing the US to claim that the whole corona virus thing was an accident and not a deliberate act of biological warfare. If this is indeed the case then china does have the US by the short and curlies. That being said, im still equally open to the possibility that maybe the whole corona virus incident was a chinese fuck up from the getgo and maybe this is just a really hamhanded attempt at counter-propaganda, but that just seems so unlikely given how cautious the CCP would normally be when it comes to something like this.

    Replies: @Tor597, @LondonBob

    There is all kinds of signaling from each side.

    First was how quickly and decisively China acted once they realized what they were dealing with. They acted like this was a bioweapon from the get go.

    They would not cooperate with American virologists for instance.

    Next on the US side, is the reluctance to test. Why is that when they know they will look bad for jot testing. What does America have to hide?

    Lastly, the US held secret meetings that excluded infectious control civilians because China was a topic of concern. Why would that matter unless this was being viewed as an act if war?

    • Agree: Desert Fox, GammaRay
    • Thanks: Pheasant
  231. @CanSpeccy
    @Desert Fox


    The coronavirus was created by the Mossad and the CIA and MI6 as a bioweapon attack on China and Russia and Iran and I hope it backfires on these satanic bastards!
     
    You don't know that. And the fact that the virus has now infected and is likely to kill many more in the West than in China, makes your claim seems unlikely, although admittedly it is not impossible, given the general stupidity and depravity of Western leadership.

    Replies: @Seraphim

    The laws of unintended consequences and of Karmic retribution are always at work.

    • Agree: Tor597
  232. When washing hands, your doctor is probably not a good role model. He or she might well be cavalier, and even defiant, as to technique. In the MSM, they state the time duration. They say to be vigorous. They say to use soap and water. (Who would otherwise wash his hands without water?). They don’t mention technique, because the proper technique is at odds with what doctors regularly do. The proper method: Do not ignore the thumbs, and the spaces between the fingers, and the backs of the hands, and under the fingernails. Things everyone already knows, but just in case: Timing: 20 seconds; hum the “happy birthday” song twice. Turn off the sink with a paper towel. Use the doorknob with a paper towel, not your clean hands.

  233. @LondonBob
    Diamond Princess shows infection rates and fatality rates are over estimated. Just too many undetected cases and the tests aren't accurate, it is clear Italy has tens of thousands infected, the British estimate is five to ten thousand is the real figure, not five hundred and ninety.

    The sensible thing to do would be to deliberately infect children and quarantine them for two weeks. It has no effect on them, they gain immunity and they cease being a major source of transmission.

    You should use different colours in your graph, rather than different shades of red, unfair on us colour blind, the forgotten minority.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry, @eugyppius, @Ludwig, @Skeptikal

    I am not color-blind and I can’t follow the graphs.

    I don’t see any green lines.

    And it is impossible to distinguish the dark gray from the black.

    There are so many colors to choose from in the real world.

    What is the problem? No colors in your software?

  234. @RadicalCenter
    @Kim

    You’re sick. Your relatives should fear you if you’re serious.

    Replies: @ken

    Kim may have a hard edge , but is basically correct. This virus is most dangerous to the elderly. If you are under 50, lead a normal life (and driving past bars and restaurants in my area suggests that is exactly what people are doing). If you are older and have compromised health perhaps you should self quarantine.

    Sorry, but vast majority of people under fifty are going to live thru this without having to visit the hospital if people would stop the hysteria. Some nutter/poster talked about his 30 year old daughter being put on hold at a hospital for an hour and receiving a call back six hours later. In normal times how many normal 30 years call a hospital because they have a fever and cough? How many would hang up the phone and go to a wellness center or just take some meds/vitamins and curl up on the couch and feel better in 3 days. No, Unz has helped make everyone panic. I have a cough, I’m gonna die! No, you have 99.7% chance of recovering stop freaking out.

    • Disagree: GazaPlanet
    • Replies: @Spanky
    @ken

    Some nutter/poster here...

    Unmentioned in my post was that when my daughter first called several urgent care centers to ask about her symptoms, all specifically pointed her to the hospital ER. As it is, she is taking OTC cold remedies and vitamins and has not gone to the ER.

    What she is concerned about is the possibility of being infected with Covid-19 and spreading it to others more vulnerable than herself. Apparently, she is far more concerned and considerate of others than either you or Kim.

    But nope... according to you it's all completely unwarranted panic.

  235. @CanSpeccy
    @Ludwig


    Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve.
     
    If China’s achievement at containment is as reported, then the decision of the the US, Britain and Canada to let the virus run through the population, cannot be a matter of unavoidable necessity but, rather, it would seem, a decision based on economic considerations.

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West. But then coming from Boris Johnson, who has announced the pregnancy of his current girl friend before completing the divorce of his current wife, that’s not something to be surprised at, I suppose.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Alfred

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West.

    Is it?

    The Romans and other European societies would leave unwanted/unplanned children outside to perish from exposure because they believed that they could not support those new arrivals.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/roman-exposure-of-infants-118370

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @The Wild Geese Howard


    The Romans and other European societies would leave unwanted/unplanned children outside to perish from exposure
     
    Romans weren't adherents of the moral tradition of the West, i.e., Christianity, until about five minutes before the place was sacked by the Visigoths. Moreover, not all Europeans have been adherents of the Western moral tradition.

    The sanctity of life is a central tenet of the Christian faith. Infanticide is a hallmark of paganism.

    That pro-lifers are now seen by most Europeans and Americans as evil misogynists, confirms that Europe and America have abandoned the moral tradition of the West and are now a pagan societies.

  236. @last straw
    @JimB

    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.

    Replies: @JimB, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    I betcha neither of those things is true, you communist sonovabitch.

  237. Unsubstantiated rumor time: Trump has tested positive for Corona Virus. The guy who tweeted this says he has a source privy to this kind of info and Trump is getting a second test.

    https://twitter.com/StandardOrder/status/1238227296026267648?s=20

  238. @Greg Bacon
    @Just Passing Through

    Watch the 2011 movie, "Contagion," that has a nasty bug that starts in Hong Kong, rushes around the world, killing tens of millions...and was caused by a bat.

    Amazing how Hollywood can dope those scenarios out!

    I agree that this Corona is a US man-made bio-weapon, as its been called a 'branch' of Corona, and not the tree. In other words, it didn't get there by itself.

    Trumpy and his gang of WH thugs thought they'd hit China with their weaponized Corona and crash their economy, but China seems to be doing quite nicely, whereas the US stock market is headed for the ditch.

    Don't think Americans will like the taste of their own medicine.

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    The stock market went up a thousand points today, smart guy. You got any more expert predictions?

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Funny how that happens when you throw a few trillion dollars at bankers...

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

  239. They ain’t callin’ it the boomer remover for nothin’

  240. @Anatoly Karlin
    Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Really No Shit, @Mark12345, @Jim Christian

    Anatoly! You’ve been gone too long, my friend. A far different world than when last you published!

    So, I’m down in Tampa, a family member is tied up in ICU for two weeks, they’re swabbing the foreheads of visitors, checking eyeballs for jaundice and temperature before allowing entry to the hospital.

    How’s every little thing in your world? When you disappear, we worry. You cannot possibly be out of material? I mean, this shit here writes itself! Be well, young man.

  241. As to the use of the frightening elderly statistics– they are skewed because of the amount of smoking in China by Men– elderly men over 80 who are dedicated smokers. The disease kills these people– this fact skews the data and doesn’t make it applicable to countries where smoking is not so encouraged and part of life as it is in China for men and especially older men:

    https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/02/25/men-coronavirus

    • Replies: @last straw
    @getaclue

    How about smoking weed? Millions in the U.S. might be doing it.

    Replies: @getaclue

  242. [MORE]

    Trump biggest liar on earth: Nasrallah on US corona transparency

    US sanctions on Iran

    ‘US, UK concealing virus-related data’

    He cited Trump’s effort to downplay the risk posed by the virus, and said the US and the UK have been concealing the real number of those infected with the virus.

    The Hezbollah chief denounced the US’s attitude towards Iran amid the Islamic Republic’s tough battle against the viral outbreak.

    He said what the Islamic Republic was currently in need of was not the US’s help — apparently referring to Washington’s offers of assistance for Iran’s preventative measures — but the removal of the American sanctions.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/03/13/620805/Lebanon-Hezbollah-United-States-Trump-coronavirus-Iran-sanctions

  243. [MORE]

    https://jvi.asm.org/content/82/4/1899

    In this study, a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-based pseudovirus system was employed to address these issues. Our results indicated that the SL-CoV S protein is unable to use ACE2 proteins of different species for cell entry and that SARS-CoV S protein also failed to bind the ACE2 molecule of the horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus pearsonii. However, when the RBD of SL-CoV S was replaced with that from the SARS-CoV S, the hybrid S protein was able to use the huACE2 for cell entry, implying that the SL-CoV S proteins are structurally and functionally very similar to the SARS-CoV S. These results suggest that although the SL-CoVs discovered in bats so far are unlikely to infect humans using ACE2 as a receptor, it remains to be seen whether they are able to use other surface molecules of certain human cell types to gain entry. It is also conceivable that these viruses may become infectious to humans if they undergo N-terminal sequence variation, for example, through recombination with other CoVs, which in turn might lead to a productive interaction with ACE2 or other surface proteins on human cells.

    Essentially, in 2007 Shi Zhengli, lead researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (only 20 miles from the wet market: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/01/23/22/23795084-0-image-a-3_1579817027497.jpg) was creating synthetic bat coronavirus strains capable of utilizing human pulmonary ACE2 receptors–which is exactly what COVID-19 does.

    COVID-19 (or whatever the politically correct name is) was either a bioweapon, or some theoretical recombinant strain they were studying (to preempt the next SARS), when someone released it, either intentionally or not. Perhaps a researcher got infected and then spread it throughout Wuhan, or perhaps a lab tech stole infected lab animals to sell at the wet market.

    Now, because of this lab, millions of people will die.

  244. [MORE]

    http://www.cryptome.org/

    CIA Biovirus 2019, February 10, 2020

    “Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is biological warfare to US attacking China in a fighting war.”

    The 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was designed by the United States and planted in Wuhan, “China by the American CIA to serve as a biological weapon meant to decouple the US-China economies; and to separate, segregate, and to isolate China from the rest of the world
    including closing of borders, severing supply chains and rerouting trade to bypass China with
    the purpose of weakening China from within and causing internal strife and sowing chaos and
    discord and also as a prelude to a US initiated fighting war against China in the South China
    Sea. The ultimate purpose is to protect and restore American hegemony (including protecting the
    US petrodollar hegemony against the rising Huawei-enabled Chinese blockchain-based digital Yuan and China’s Belt and Road infrastructure and trade initiatives in Eurasia) and to collapse the
    Chinese government, to cut off China from global trade and international commerce and to force
    a regime change of China’s government after defeating China in a devastating physical war.”

    “I believe and have compelling circumstantial reason to believe that the American CIA injected
    and planted the so-called “Wuhan virus” into Wuhan, China in or around the dates of October
    31st 2019 to December 31st 2019 with intent to harm China, and the Chinese people, and with
    potential to destabilize and perhaps even with the motive to collapse China from within.”

  245. [MORE]

    The U.S. Armed Forces during opening ceremonies for the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan in October 2019.

    A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry suggested, on 12/3/20, that the U.S. military might have brought the coronavirus to the Chinese city of Wuhan,

    China says U.S. military may have brought coronavirus to China

    Pentagon biolabs.

    David [email protected] tweets:

    “Many Italians in Italy sold their leather goods and textiles companies to China.

    “Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights.

    “Result: Italy is Europe’s hotspot for Wuhan Coronavirus.”

    The Coronavirus death rate in China is now down to 0.7% – and rapidly declining.
    China has used medication called ‘Interferon Alpha 2B (IFNrec)’

    “It is not known and used in the world, because the US, under the illegal embargo of Cuba, does not allow the medication to be marketed internationally.”

    The Real Danger is “Agenda ID2020” – Global Research

    ID2020 is an alliance of public-private partners, including UN agencies and civil society.
    It’s an electronic ID program that uses generalized vaccination as a platform for digital identity. The program harnesses existing birth registration and vaccination operations to provide newborns with a portable and persistent biometrically-linked digital identity.

    The ID2020 Alliance at their 2019 Summit, entitled “Rising to the Good ID Challenge”, in September 2019 in New York, decided to roll out their program in 2020

    The Real Danger is “Agenda ID2020” – Global Research

    http://aanirfan.blogspot.com/

  246. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @CanSpeccy


    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West.
     
    Is it?

    The Romans and other European societies would leave unwanted/unplanned children outside to perish from exposure because they believed that they could not support those new arrivals.

    https://www.thoughtco.com/roman-exposure-of-infants-118370

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    The Romans and other European societies would leave unwanted/unplanned children outside to perish from exposure

    Romans weren’t adherents of the moral tradition of the West, i.e., Christianity, until about five minutes before the place was sacked by the Visigoths. Moreover, not all Europeans have been adherents of the Western moral tradition.

    The sanctity of life is a central tenet of the Christian faith. Infanticide is a hallmark of paganism.

    That pro-lifers are now seen by most Europeans and Americans as evil misogynists, confirms that Europe and America have abandoned the moral tradition of the West and are now a pagan societies.

  247. @Daniel Chieh
    @Philip Owen

    You should relocate to Russia for now. I don't think Boris is good for your health.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    I would not recommend Russia for escaping this epidemic (although there might be a few days of opportunity to fly to Russia or Ukraine now before UK citizens will be banned from entry).

    Epidemic control was becoming excellent by late Soviet times, and arguably the USSR had probably the best anti-epidemic state capacity in the world in the 1970s.

    Although they would quarantine whole cities, without reporting it in the media. For example, Odessa was quarantined and impassably sealed from the world in 1970, to prevent a cholera epidemic. But this was a secret, that could only be reported after they had destroyed the epidemic.

    However, there is likely 30-40 years of deterioration in state capacity for epidemic control, although to be fair Rospotrebnadzor seems skillful in banning Roshen chocolates, or wine from Georgia.

    Today, public hospitals will be rapidly overwhelmed, there are not many ventilators, there are lots of vulnerable populations who could flood a hospital (e.g. world’s largest population of HIV infected people outside Africa; and quite many people with diagnosed and undiagnosed asthma, due to air pollution in certain cities).

    Aside from the lack of funding in healthcare, state capacity for quarantining is not going to at the same level as in China (again, this is not Soviet times, unfortunately from a perspective of brutal ways of epidemic control).

    The best options now are either relocate to self-isolation with all the toilet paper you could buy, or going somewhere where warm weather and high air temperatures will limit the airborne spread of virus.

  248. @Philip Owen
    @Chinaman

    The Brazilian government blocked me from sending 600,000 masks N95F mask to China four weeks ago. A lot of other single use supplies too.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    A good decision from the Brazilian government’s perspective. This is more N95 masks than some countries have?

    American authorities only had 12 million N95 masks in reserve in February.

    Brazilian government blocked me from sending 600,000 masks N95F mask to China four weeks ago

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  249. @Ludwig
    @LondonBob

    This is ultimately an impractical idea. If you thought the resistance to vaccines to children was an issue (even though for argument sakes 1 in 100,000 comes down with some disease/autism due to the antibiotics messing up the a kid’s biome which in rare cases has been found to be linked to autism), this is going to encounter massive resistance.

    Firstly scientists are not sure why kids are not as impacted as adults so far. There are various theories as to why but as a parent I won’t offer my child to purposely be infected just on a theory. Even flu vaccines have side effects to kids: let alone an unknown coronavirus. It is in some sense as bad as saying let the elderly die so that hospitals can focus on more “productive” members of society. At the least various cultures will have to decide what their value systems are. (I am sure Sparta would have had no problem containing this. Kill any who look like they have it.)

    What China did - locking down at different levels based on severity, so Wuhan was locked down at the neighborhood level (over 9000), at the level of the city and then the province and also focused on other clusters - did and can work. Outside Hubei - 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve. That’s what needs to be done.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @LondonBob

    China’s measures are extreme, unsustainable and it is already too late.

    The Supreme Leader, me, would not allow you to stop your child being infected. If there is a subset of children with a medical condition for whom infection might have adverse effect, there has been no evidence Wuhan Flu is even as a bad as the common cold for children, then I would allow exemption. Of course once all their peers have immunity their likelihood of catching the Wuhan Flu will have declined from absolute certainty to as low as possible.

    • Replies: @Smith
    @LondonBob

    When everyone is infected, NOBODY is infected.

    Genius, natural vaccine!

    The UK government is simply making its entire country a biological experiment.

  250. @LondonBob
    @Ludwig

    China's measures are extreme, unsustainable and it is already too late.

    The Supreme Leader, me, would not allow you to stop your child being infected. If there is a subset of children with a medical condition for whom infection might have adverse effect, there has been no evidence Wuhan Flu is even as a bad as the common cold for children, then I would allow exemption. Of course once all their peers have immunity their likelihood of catching the Wuhan Flu will have declined from absolute certainty to as low as possible.

    Replies: @Smith

    When everyone is infected, NOBODY is infected.

    Genius, natural vaccine!

    The UK government is simply making its entire country a biological experiment.

  251. @Daniel Chieh
    @Dieter Kief

    Why did you post that Karlin was blocked in the UK? Which site?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dieter Kief

    He isn’t.

  252. @GammaRay
    @Just Passing Through


    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.
     
    Ive seen some people suggest that this is currently the case but I think that people that suggest this are usually projecting their own desires with regards to china. Will this whole corona-virus thing damage china's PR image? definitely. Will it be lasting? Most likely not. You seriously overestimate how much people care, after a few news cycles the whole china corona-virus thing will literally be a thing of the past.

    More importantly is the fact that this whole corona virus thing will not isolate china like china-hawks are hoping it will and the reason why is because there are far too many people who stand to make lots of $$$ by working with china. Oh so there are some nationalist countries who don't want to work with china anymore? Thats fine, there are plenty of other countries that are willing to step up and take their place instead. Put simply, talk is cheap, nationalist ideology will largely go out the window when it comes to greed and the desire to make a profit. The relatively small proportion of right wing people who want to see china isolated by a rising wave of nationalist sentiment largely overestimate the fickleness and unreliability of the masses. The alt-right pipe dream of china becoming an international leper after all this blows over is just that, a pipe dream.

    Ive seen far too many commenters (both here and in other places) who genuinely think that the corona virus incident is going to make people seriously question globalization and immigration. I hate to say it but the only people that will be drawing that conclusion will be people who already think that way. "Normies" are not going to draw that conclusion because they are either indifferent to it or they already accept globalization and immigration as a foregone conclusion and it wouldn't occur to them to question it. To them, the whole corona virus thing will simply be understood as one of those things that happens, like natural disasters, global warming, etc etc; the corona virus incident isn't going to cause them to seriously question anything. The alt-right drastically overestimates how much people care, about anything

    on an unrelated note, does anyone else feel like its pretty significant that the chinese have publicly signed off on the conspiracy theory of the US being the origin of the corona virus?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-official-says-us-army-maybe-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan-2020-3

    The fact that the chinese government has apparently given this theory the green light is pretty shocking. I always imagine the CCP as being extremely careful when it comes to stuff like this, therefore the fact that they went public with it is a pretty big deal. What this implies is that perhaps the CCP actually has some credible evidence to back up their claims, if they didn't then they wouldn't dare take a chance of losing massive face by spreading a blatantly untrue conspiracy theory.

    IMO I think that the CCP may actually have some credible evidence to back up their claim and at this point in time it wouldn't surprise me if maybe they are forcing the US behind closed doors to give some concessions in return for allowing the US to claim that the whole corona virus thing was an accident and not a deliberate act of biological warfare. If this is indeed the case then china does have the US by the short and curlies. That being said, im still equally open to the possibility that maybe the whole corona virus incident was a chinese fuck up from the getgo and maybe this is just a really hamhanded attempt at counter-propaganda, but that just seems so unlikely given how cautious the CCP would normally be when it comes to something like this.

    Replies: @Tor597, @LondonBob

    America is waging hybrid warfare, such claims are no more implausible than the claims made against other countries on the receiving end of such campaigns. Personally I approve this Chinese move, force your opponent to deny and put them on the defensive. That it is ridiculous is in some ways even better.

  253. All good this exercise at modelling and predicting but do we really know enough (and will we ever) to bother?

    Looking at the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, there are now over 700 confirmed COVID-19 cases out of originally 3700 people. Does anyone know how many of the people on that ship caught the regular seasonal flue and how many died of it? After all the conditions on that ship should be ideal for the spreading of ordinary colds and flu. It would be interesting to know just to put this COVID-19 in perspective.

    So they tell us that COVID-19 is more contagious and deadlier than the regular flu. But is it? Not each flu is the same every season and some are deadlier than others. And how good are these tests really?

    I like a good conspiracy like anyone else, so how about that this is the regular seasonal flu which Big Pharma failed to predict adequately so its vaccines were useless in preventing a massive global outbreak or protecting those who took the vaccine? In order to cover up their failure they tried to find someone else to blame so they turned to China and bat soup and now we have these biowarfare theories. Of course they may develop some other useless vaccine that they’ll administer and profit from but new variants of the flu will emerge in the future regardless.

    • Replies: @OscarWildeLoveChild
    @Commentator Mike

    The Diamond Princess is a great test of the parameters of this virus. They were literally stuck together like a petri dish for what, a month? a few weeks. No one under 70 has died, and some tested negative and many were asymptomatic who were positive.

    Just seems like it's not really all that deadly.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @yakushimaru

  254. Boomers take note;
    This anger young people have for you, and the callousness you are seeing, doesn’t have to be there.
    Emotional trauma can be healed, relationships repaired. Those pissed about the voluntary destruction of their families and society aren’t snowflakes, and shouldn’t be dismissed.

    As boomers age, the world will become more and more based around health and wellness. Kind of like how “Assisted Suicide” advocacy was huge in the 90s, when the Greatest Generation were becoming infirm, while today its not an issue at all. Boomer narcissism dominates the culture. They still play retarded ass John Lennon’s “Imagine” at my gym.

    It will be a great tragedy if those currently 60-75, don’t focus more on repairing relationships, and less on more blood sacrifices to keep them alive. This is the first of three decades or so, of massive adjustments, fueled by the needs of a particular demographic. Really, it’s been this way since the first boomer walked away from his/her family, because “not haaaaaaapppyy.”

    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
    @Hilaire Belloc

    Your comment is absolutely stupid and you shame the name of a great man who spoke out against the REAL problem.

    You boomer bashing idiots (and I include Anglin and TRS) divert attention away from the real culprits.....you throw people off the scent.

    How much does the nose pay you to spew your bullshit?

    Replies: @Hilaire Belloc

  255. @Kratoklastes
    @Carlton Meyer


    Due to the symptoms, many people who currently believe they have a common cold, will not report to the local emergency services, therefore the total number of reported cases may be far higher than the official number, and may explain why people are infected despite quarantines. It also vastly reduces the actual mortality rate.
     
    First sensible thing in this entire thread - although it could be clarified somewhat (e.g., the total number of infections - reported plus unreported - may be far higher than the official number).

    Also, the last sentence gives the reader the possible impression that unreported cases reduce the mortality rate: it reduces the estimate of the mortality rate (I know that's what you meant, but it's a critical distinction).

    .

    Very slight symptoms in the vast vast majority of cases, means that in the earliest stages of the outbreak the vast vast majority of actually-infected individuals would not have sought medical care - and were therefore not identified as a potential starting point for spread, and were therefore a vector for transmission for the entire length of the infectious stage of their (unreported) case.

    This being the case (it's not remotely arguable that it's not the case: the lack of 'serious' symptoms is an established fact)... the current estimates of the mortality rate are vastly vastly overstated.

    .

    And yet with all these unsequestered, asymptomatic-but-infected people swanning about... 1.3 billion Chinamen has generated ~80,000 cases and ~3000 deaths.

    And a lot of those 80,000 diagnoses were not obtained by testing: they were obtained by a "checklist" approach (like AIDS in Africa, and pretty much any diagnosis from a psychocharlatan).

    Bear in mind that the Chinese authorities did fuck-all for several weeks, during which time people were going about their business as normal (some of them with nothing worse than sniffles; some with coughs and headaches that they got over in a week).

    The 'whistleblower' made his initial post on 30 Dec - having seen data on a cluster of 7 cases in his hospital and thinking that this was being covered up. Whether he was correct or not is irrelevant: the point is that for there to have been a 'cluster' identified as a novel, viral, respiratory illness must have taken a week or more.

    Given that all 7 were symptomatic, were they the only cases in Wuhan (or in China) at the time? Why would anyone believe that to be the case?

    I seem to recall that the initial cluster were workers at the wet market: is this the only such place in China?

    What of the movements of other workers - including those who never exhibited symptoms? And go outwards from there... the numbers get very big very quickly if people are interacting and most people are asymptomatic.

    Anyhow... January 20th - 3 weeks after Dr Li Wenliang's chat message - China started to impose controls.

    Notionally, Dr Li contracted the dose that killed him from an asymptomatic glaucoma patient (the 80-something woman displayed symptoms after her treatment). This happened in early January.

    So in early January there were people carrying covid19 who were not identifiable as carriers - they were capable of transmitting the pathogen but didn't have a fever. That is unlikely to have been something that just started happening the day before.

    .

    The only way to work out how widespread this thing actually is, would be to systematically test EVERYBODY - not just people who have symptoms of some form of respiratory illness.

    Consider what it means if you only test people who are symptomatic (or you only test on small, relatively confined populations with a high probability of exposure and a high rate of underling comorbidities).

    To take it outside the current hysteria, consider if you only did breast screens for women over 50 with gigantic lumps on their breasts, and then extrapolated the result to the whole population.

    Your guess at the prevalence of breast cancer would be so ridiculously high that nobody would take you seriously.

    And yet that's what is happening with covid19.

    As we know, though: most women don't have breast cancer.

    If the testing protocol focuses on 'at risk' groups, it guarantees two things: over-estimating prevalence, AND missing a very large proportion of people who actually have the condition.

    Sounds counter-intuitive, but that's how the number shake out.

    .

    So it can be taken either way: in large populations, either
    ① fuck-all people ever get infected and the worst-affected few percent die (that's what the Chinese numbers look like; the Iranian numbers likewise); or...
    ② a very large number of people get infected but show no (or weak) symptoms, and fuck-all of them die.

    .

    ② Is Just like 'flu, "brah", and is the correct answer to the question "What is actually happening?";

    If ① was true, it would be a poor basis for global hysteria (although hysterias seldom have or need 'good' bases). This is why we are told the correct answer is

    ③ a very large number get infected and the worst-affected few percent die.

    ③ is being cynically manipulated to get the following tropes into the heads of dimwitted imbeciles...
    • "Listen to the experts"
    • "Do as you're told"
    • "The situation is changing rapidly, so what you're told might change rapidly - but continue to obey" and
    • "We just have to shovel some wealth to our cronies for a while: turns out they're not rich enough yet."

    Replies: @Calculator, @El Dato, @Justvisiting

    Tracking diseases is insanely difficult.

    I agree the numbers are garbage unless you can test either everybody or a good random sample.

    At the spread stage, a test is worthless because the number of infected is doubling every few days (pick your favorite number) so even if you are negative today you could still be positive next week.

    Faced with bad data, there can be no intelligent policy decisions on a new disease.

    This whole thing reminds me of the apes and the monolith opening scene of 2001.

    The “experts” are clueless, the average idiot out there is clueless, and everybody is running around buying toilet paper.

    Meanwhile reporters are shoulder to shoulder at the WH press conferences while lecturing everyone else about social distancing.

    What a mess.

  256. • Replies: @Wizard of Oz
    @Ron Unz

    This seems to be as good a place as any to draw attention to a video which my Professor friend of (Galician) Ukrainian ancestry tells of Putin behaving like Trump.
    https://www.cepa.org/russia-in-the-time-of-coronavirus

    That is that neither cares about deaths, only about winning votes, and that Putin's aim is to conceal the thousands of Covid 19 deaths in Russia till after the vote on whether he becomes or can become President till 2034.

    In the meantime a lot of people are dying of "pneumonia".

    Replies: @JL

  257. @ken
    @RadicalCenter

    Kim may have a hard edge , but is basically correct. This virus is most dangerous to the elderly. If you are under 50, lead a normal life (and driving past bars and restaurants in my area suggests that is exactly what people are doing). If you are older and have compromised health perhaps you should self quarantine.

    Sorry, but vast majority of people under fifty are going to live thru this without having to visit the hospital if people would stop the hysteria. Some nutter/poster talked about his 30 year old daughter being put on hold at a hospital for an hour and receiving a call back six hours later. In normal times how many normal 30 years call a hospital because they have a fever and cough? How many would hang up the phone and go to a wellness center or just take some meds/vitamins and curl up on the couch and feel better in 3 days. No, Unz has helped make everyone panic. I have a cough, I'm gonna die! No, you have 99.7% chance of recovering stop freaking out.

    Replies: @Spanky

    Some nutter/poster here…

    Unmentioned in my post was that when my daughter first called several urgent care centers to ask about her symptoms, all specifically pointed her to the hospital ER. As it is, she is taking OTC cold remedies and vitamins and has not gone to the ER.

    What she is concerned about is the possibility of being infected with Covid-19 and spreading it to others more vulnerable than herself. Apparently, she is far more concerned and considerate of others than either you or Kim.

    But nope… according to you it’s all completely unwarranted panic.

  258. @getaclue
    As to the use of the frightening elderly statistics-- they are skewed because of the amount of smoking in China by Men-- elderly men over 80 who are dedicated smokers. The disease kills these people-- this fact skews the data and doesn't make it applicable to countries where smoking is not so encouraged and part of life as it is in China for men and especially older men:

    https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/02/25/men-coronavirus

    Replies: @last straw

    How about smoking weed? Millions in the U.S. might be doing it.

    • Replies: @getaclue
    @last straw

    I always heard that you didn't damage your lungs badly from weed bc most don't chainsmoke etc. just a hit or 2 9 (unlike cigs)? Not sure if that is the Medicine....-- smoking Weed is stupid for a number of reasons but this might be a new one....

  259. @Tor597
    @yakushimaru

    What interests me is the fact that this was a particularly deadly flu season in America. It very easily could have been the more restrained S type corona virus in America that was circulating.

    And then the L strain emerged in China either by accident or on purpose.

    Replies: @nickels

    Wife and I had the worst flu of either our lives.
    Literally five days in bed getting up only an hour or so a day.
    My lungs squeaked for 3 weeks. They started to clog worse after leaving bed for about a week.
    All I remember is fever and something about fog and a helicopter.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    @nickels

    Anyone who works in healthcare will tell you this was a really bad flu season.

    We had a lot of deaths compared to a normal season where I live.

  260. @Hilaire Belloc
    Boomers take note;
    This anger young people have for you, and the callousness you are seeing, doesn’t have to be there.
    Emotional trauma can be healed, relationships repaired. Those pissed about the voluntary destruction of their families and society aren’t snowflakes, and shouldn’t be dismissed.

    As boomers age, the world will become more and more based around health and wellness. Kind of like how “Assisted Suicide” advocacy was huge in the 90s, when the Greatest Generation were becoming infirm, while today its not an issue at all. Boomer narcissism dominates the culture. They still play retarded ass John Lennon’s “Imagine” at my gym.

    It will be a great tragedy if those currently 60-75, don’t focus more on repairing relationships, and less on more blood sacrifices to keep them alive. This is the first of three decades or so, of massive adjustments, fueled by the needs of a particular demographic. Really, it’s been this way since the first boomer walked away from his/her family, because “not haaaaaaapppyy.”

    Replies: @Robert Dolan

    Your comment is absolutely stupid and you shame the name of a great man who spoke out against the REAL problem.

    You boomer bashing idiots (and I include Anglin and TRS) divert attention away from the real culprits…..you throw people off the scent.

    How much does the nose pay you to spew your bullshit?

    • Replies: @Hilaire Belloc
    @Robert Dolan

    Easy, Mr. Dolan. If it doesn’t apply, let it fly. My father is a “boomer.” He worked against the nose his entire life. If you’re such a man, I’m clearly not talking about you. Millenials are feckless, effete codependents, but I’m obviously not talking about myself, either. You know this.

    The man spent 30 years trying to get many boomers to look past their negro sportsball addiction, garage boat-building, umpteen million divorces, etc., to see the relentless assault on our nation, and what did his peers do? They mumbled nonsense about GDP, the stock market, and MLK. When he persisted, they had him marched out of his industry, expelled from the Republican party, and made a persona non grata for his entire life. Imagine what the life of Kevin McCarthy would be without tenure. Hell, Vox Day’s father is in prison. This was not done to them by liberal ex-hippies, but Boomer conservatives. Guys with the mindset of Rand Paul, wanting to build an office in the hood, to teach Devontay, Lachelle, and Marqueesh about the joys of libertarianism.
    Millennials are trash. People say it all the time, and I don’t fuss, because I agree. Being a millennial is not part of my identity.

    Still, wrong place to insert such a discussion. So I apologize, there. I don’t want baby boomers to die of the corona virus. A couple of weeks away from the grind is a small price to pay for them not to get severely ill.

  261. @Alfred
    @yakushimaru


    a lot depends on luck
     
    and genes.

    AK: Could you use "blockquote" (or italics) for quoting? Thanks.

    Replies: @Alfred

    OK 🙂

  262. @nickels
    @Tor597

    Wife and I had the worst flu of either our lives.
    Literally five days in bed getting up only an hour or so a day.
    My lungs squeaked for 3 weeks. They started to clog worse after leaving bed for about a week.
    All I remember is fever and something about fog and a helicopter.

    Replies: @Tor597

    Anyone who works in healthcare will tell you this was a really bad flu season.

    We had a lot of deaths compared to a normal season where I live.

  263. @Robert Dolan
    @Hilaire Belloc

    Your comment is absolutely stupid and you shame the name of a great man who spoke out against the REAL problem.

    You boomer bashing idiots (and I include Anglin and TRS) divert attention away from the real culprits.....you throw people off the scent.

    How much does the nose pay you to spew your bullshit?

    Replies: @Hilaire Belloc

    Easy, Mr. Dolan. If it doesn’t apply, let it fly. My father is a “boomer.” He worked against the nose his entire life. If you’re such a man, I’m clearly not talking about you. Millenials are feckless, effete codependents, but I’m obviously not talking about myself, either. You know this.

    The man spent 30 years trying to get many boomers to look past their negro sportsball addiction, garage boat-building, umpteen million divorces, etc., to see the relentless assault on our nation, and what did his peers do? They mumbled nonsense about GDP, the stock market, and MLK. When he persisted, they had him marched out of his industry, expelled from the Republican party, and made a persona non grata for his entire life. Imagine what the life of Kevin McCarthy would be without tenure. Hell, Vox Day’s father is in prison. This was not done to them by liberal ex-hippies, but Boomer conservatives. Guys with the mindset of Rand Paul, wanting to build an office in the hood, to teach Devontay, Lachelle, and Marqueesh about the joys of libertarianism.
    Millennials are trash. People say it all the time, and I don’t fuss, because I agree. Being a millennial is not part of my identity.

    Still, wrong place to insert such a discussion. So I apologize, there. I don’t want baby boomers to die of the corona virus. A couple of weeks away from the grind is a small price to pay for them not to get severely ill.

  264. @songbird
    I feel like the Shah would have handled the situation in Iran much better. During his party in the desert celebrating the 2,500 year anniversary of the Persian Empire, he closed the borders and the schools. And he wasn't afraid to spend big.

    Of course, it may be that his son would have been a weaker leader.

    Replies: @Alfred

    I feel like the Shah would have handled the situation in Iran much better. During his party in the desert celebrating the 2,500 year anniversary of the Persian Empire, he closed the borders and the schools. And he wasn’t afraid to spend big.

    I was living in Tehran at that time. I remember the TV announcers making a big effort to call princess Anne, princess Aann. Her name, when pronounced normally, means TURD in Farsi. 🙂

    It is true. The Shah was quite a guy. I remember military helicopters flying low over our roof on their way from the north of Tehran to shoot up the people in the south of Tehran. My Iranian girlfriend would get phone calls from her girlfriend in old Tehran to say that they were shooting up her district. Their canon would penetrate walls.

    The big difference between then and now is that the Shah had the western media in his pocket. They never criticised him. Their governments never criticised him either. He could do what he liked with impunity.

    Today, the situation is different. There is an undeclared war against all Iranians – and they know it. This virus was planted in Qom and near those politicians who got poisoned. Their medical supplies were cut off years ago. They don’t have the money to splurge like the Shah did. The media of the west is lying constantly about everything going on in Iran. They never mention that it is a far more democratic country than the UK, France or the USA, for example. Every time some Iraqis attack their occupiers, the Iranians get the blame.

    Regardless, you can be sure that the next time they introduce a virus, the Iranians will be much better prepared. Furthermore, it is now much clearer why the Americans invited a leading Iranian scientist and promptly arrested him.

    An Iranian scientist coming to the US for a prestigious visiting scientist position was arrested on arrival and remains in detention eight months later (now released). When Professor Masoud Soleimani left Tehran last fall, he planned to complete the final stage of his research on treating stroke patients as a visiting scholar at the prestigious Mayo Clinic in Minnesota.

    His lawyers say Soleimani, who works in stem cell research, hematology and regenerative medicine, saw a former student’s plans to travel from the US to Iran in September 2016 as a chance to get recombinant proteins used in his research for a fraction of the price he would pay at home.

    But he was arrested on landing in Chicago and prosecutors in Atlanta have accused him and two of his former students of conspiring and attempting to export biological materials from the US to Iran without authorization, in violation of US sanctions. The two counts each carry a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.

    Professor accused of conspiring and attempting to export biological materials from the US to Iran without authorization

    Nostalgia is not a bad thing – in moderation.

    • Replies: @Keypusher
    @Alfred

    The big difference between then and now is that the Shah had the western media in his pocket. They never criticised him. Their governments never criticised him either. He could do what he liked with impunity.

    Luckily, I was around back then, so I know you’re full of shit.

  265. @Daniel Chieh
    @Dieter Kief

    Why did you post that Karlin was blocked in the UK? Which site?

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Dieter Kief

    Oh thanks – so I misunderstood his remark about the Russian shitposters as a sarcastic self-reference – I think he thinks that he too could be seen by the British officials as one which should be blocked. This unit exists – and will therefore produce enemies. –
    I’m glad to hear that I was too pessimistic here.

  266. @CanSpeccy
    @Ludwig


    Outside Hubei – 1.3 billion, only around 200 died and they flattened the hell out of the curve.
     
    If China’s achievement at containment is as reported, then the decision of the the US, Britain and Canada to let the virus run through the population, cannot be a matter of unavoidable necessity but, rather, it would seem, a decision based on economic considerations.

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one. This seems like a blunt declaration of “fuck-you boomer,” and an acknowledgement of the abandonment of the moral tradition of the West. But then coming from Boris Johnson, who has announced the pregnancy of his current girl friend before completing the divorce of his current wife, that’s not something to be surprised at, I suppose.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @The Wild Geese Howard, @Alfred

    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one

    Can you think of a better way to “save the NHS”?

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Alfred


    Can you think of a better way to “save the NHS”?
     
    Is there any reason I should want to save the NHS?
  267. This was copied from another post. But there are so many particularities you have to add this to the same “what are the odds” that make it very suspicious.

    Right before the worst outbreak of our time, Trump got rid of many of the people who would help control an outbreak?

    Was that bad timing or was Trump trying to get rid of key people who would get in the way?

    “Trump declined to use the World Health Organization’s test like other nations. Back in January, over a month before the first Co-vid19 case, the Chinese posted a new mysterious virus and within a week, Berlin virologists had produced the first diagnostic test. By the end of February, the WHO had shipped out tests to 60 countries. Oh, but not our government. We declined the test even as a temporary bridge until the CDC could create its own test. The question is why? We don’t know but what to look for is which pharmaceutical company eventually manufactures the test and who owns the stock. Keep tuned.

    In 2018 Trump fired Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossart, whose job was to coordinate a response to global pandemics. He was not replaced.

    In 2018 Dr. Luciana Borio, the NSC director for medical and bio-defense preparedness left the job. Trump did not replace Dr. Borio.

    In 2019 the NSC’s Senior Director for Global Health Security and bio-defense, Tim Ziemer, left the position and Trump did not replace the Rear Admiral.

    Trump shut down the entire Global Health Security and Bio-defense agency. Yes, he did.

    Amid the explosive worldwide outbreak of the virus Trump proposed a 19% cut to the budget of the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention plus a 10% cut to Public Health Services and a 7% cut to Global Health Services. Those happen to be the organizations that responds to public health threats.

    In 2018, at Trump’s direction, the CDC stopped funding epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries including China.

    Trump didn’t appoint a doctor to oversee the US response to the pandemic. He appointed Mike Pence.”

    • Replies: @prime noticer
    @Tor597

    "This was copied from another post."
    nothing suspicious about any of that. those were all good decisions from Trump.

    "Trump declined to use the World Health Organization’s test like other nations"
    correct. the tests were not accurate enough. rejected by the US medical community. also, WHO people were dead wrong in their advice about travel and borders. in general, WHO should be ignored, like UN. an Ethiopian is running WHO.

    "We don’t know but what to look for is which pharmaceutical company eventually manufactures the test and who owns the stock."
    we know now, after the press conference. and they may make money, but who cares. what matters is that in 2 weeks the Trump task force crash coursed private medical companies into the most accurate Covid-19 test available currently, or so they say. South Korea used private companies to make their high volume test kits. the new US one is supposed to be more accurate and faster than the Korean version, with 15,000 tests per day volume.

    "In 2018 Trump fired Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossart"
    good fire. useless, dead weight, knows nothing, never did or accomplished anything. no particular expertise in the field. just a bureaucratic flak middle manager type from the Bush Admin. his position was admin bloat.

    "2018 Dr. Luciana Borio"
    an actual knowledgeable person, but not a relevant or important person. job overlaps with other departments, a big problem in the modern federal government. does CDC exist? yes? then why does her job exist. also, why does NSC exist at all. we don't need 12 intelligence agencies, 2 or 3 can do a bad job all on their own. as with CDC for diseases.

    "Tim Ziemer"
    entire position was eliminated as irrelevant, redundant admin bloat. good elimination. NSC should just be eliminated, period.

    "Trump shut down the entire Global Health Security and Bio-defense agency"
    good. useless, redundant admin bloat. does CDC exist? yes? then why does this agency exist. what on earth is even a Global Health Security department? apparently it's some international useless organization from Canada.

    "Amid the explosive worldwide outbreak of the virus Trump proposed a 19% cut"
    none of the cuts went into effect, and CDC budget is higher now than before. and let's be honest - CDC budget should be cut. CDC wastes lots of money and time on things that are not their mission. CDC has big, mission creep admin bloat, just like most agencies. CDC can do just as bad a job as they do now, with half the budget. as director Redfield shows. a guy who seems to not be up to the job.

    "In 2018, at Trump’s direction, the CDC stopped funding epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries including China."
    good cut. let them fund their own programs. America First. enough of this billions a year foreign aid shit. CDC offers to help foreign nations in specific crisis situations anyway. China and Africa will invent new viruses all on their own no matter how much money is flushed down there.

    "Trump didn’t appoint a doctor to oversee the US response to the pandemic. He appointed Mike Pence"
    good appointment. Mike Pence did a good job. a doctor would probably have bungled it. next we'll complain that a scientist didn't oversee the Manhattan Project, and instead they sent a military man named Leslie Groves who actually knew how to get serious projects done.

  268. @Hempus
    Hysteria about covid-19 reached the climax.
    Actually I would not mind when it hits also the creators of this plot hard.
    But there are testing restrictions for the chosen one. They are happy to print money to get even better dept slaves to create a brave new world of blackmail receivers.



    One very important thing is missed in all this articles ..the clear definition of the disease and about what exactly is the cause of death!
    Remember: there where 40 different disease listed as a result of AIDS! What a joke!

    So if a person had one of these disease and have been tested HIV positive and died, it was listed as a cause of AIDS

    There is a disease called chronical lung fibrosis. which is not caused by any Virus. But the acute lung fibrosis combined with influenca fewer...takes millions of victims worldwide every year.

    Since AIDS we have a second variation of acute lung fibrosis: Triggered by a negative placebo, an antibody test about a new virus branded as "deathly"!

    Here is a sentence from a "top" Taiwan Virologist from:
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

    "The Virologist further stated that the US has recently had more than 200 “pulmonary fibrosis” cases that resulted in death due to patients’ inability to breathe, but whose conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis."

    (Imho..the second variation of acute lung fibrosis as exposed above!!)

    I do not want to sound arrogant, but I have studied this phenomens for more then 40 years by my work as a breathing therapist, and yes, I created and teached breathing techniques who easily overcome the problems created by a negative placebo such as the HIV tests...if tested positive!

    Replies: @Dumbo, @Commentator Mike

    Your analogy with HIV/AIDS is interesting. Supposing someone is tested positive for covid-19 but has no symptoms and is healthy. When he does get the seasonal flu soon after will they say it was covid-19, and if he subsequently dies of complications will they also put it down as a covid-19 fatality? Surely testing positive for covid-19 doesn’t make one immune to the regular flu.

    • Replies: @Hempus
    @Commentator Mike



    AIDS: First "they" discovered a new virus, then they looked for a matching disease for it.....found one by the "mysterious" death of gay people in NY and San Francisco.
    If they would have made their tests first in an old people home they could have made the same conclution! Lots of people who ruined themself by drugs or who are shortly before death are tested HIV positive. The virus is actually just a marker and not the cause!
    The media and the big pharma rised the theory that the virus is spreading around and can affect also other groups. Pandemie means big money for the patent holder and the big pharma & vaccination industry / shareholders.

    In fact only the HIV antibody test "spread" all over the world, and not ADIDS!

    After 35 years of success..."they"+ vaccination pope Bill Gates try another coup on humanity.
    This time they already use symptoms as fewer, influenza / flu. Such "disease" exist since centuries worldwide.
    The "new" virus is described as attacking the bronchies and lungs and leads to pneumonia.
    This is an unproved allegation!
    Definitively the test works like a death sentence...Its a very strong negative placebo!!!
    Additionaly to fewer and flu the test creates panic and fear and affects the breathing. Breathlessness is caused by the test and not by a virus!

    All "they" had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which "they" also want to weaken.

    Its obvious that in America especially Trump knows that its a fraud intended also to destroy his reelection. Thats why in America are secret (classified) testing restrictions!
    Naive Iran and Italy do a lot of testing and falling into the trap.
    But they cant stop the spread of the test....this would be political uncorrect and the media would kill them for stop testing.

    So, again we will see a great fight between the plotters & media against Trump with a world wide collateral damage.
    Trump winning again?

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

  269. @Tor597
    This was copied from another post. But there are so many particularities you have to add this to the same "what are the odds" that make it very suspicious.

    Right before the worst outbreak of our time, Trump got rid of many of the people who would help control an outbreak?

    Was that bad timing or was Trump trying to get rid of key people who would get in the way?



    "Trump declined to use the World Health Organization’s test like other nations. Back in January, over a month before the first Co-vid19 case, the Chinese posted a new mysterious virus and within a week, Berlin virologists had produced the first diagnostic test. By the end of February, the WHO had shipped out tests to 60 countries. Oh, but not our government. We declined the test even as a temporary bridge until the CDC could create its own test. The question is why? We don’t know but what to look for is which pharmaceutical company eventually manufactures the test and who owns the stock. Keep tuned.

    In 2018 Trump fired Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossart, whose job was to coordinate a response to global pandemics. He was not replaced.

    In 2018 Dr. Luciana Borio, the NSC director for medical and bio-defense preparedness left the job. Trump did not replace Dr. Borio.

    In 2019 the NSC’s Senior Director for Global Health Security and bio-defense, Tim Ziemer, left the position and Trump did not replace the Rear Admiral.

    Trump shut down the entire Global Health Security and Bio-defense agency. Yes, he did.

    Amid the explosive worldwide outbreak of the virus Trump proposed a 19% cut to the budget of the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention plus a 10% cut to Public Health Services and a 7% cut to Global Health Services. Those happen to be the organizations that responds to public health threats.

    In 2018, at Trump’s direction, the CDC stopped funding epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries including China.

    Trump didn’t appoint a doctor to oversee the US response to the pandemic. He appointed Mike Pence."

    Replies: @prime noticer

    “This was copied from another post.”
    nothing suspicious about any of that. those were all good decisions from Trump.

    “Trump declined to use the World Health Organization’s test like other nations”
    correct. the tests were not accurate enough. rejected by the US medical community. also, WHO people were dead wrong in their advice about travel and borders. in general, WHO should be ignored, like UN. an Ethiopian is running WHO.

    “We don’t know but what to look for is which pharmaceutical company eventually manufactures the test and who owns the stock.”
    we know now, after the press conference. and they may make money, but who cares. what matters is that in 2 weeks the Trump task force crash coursed private medical companies into the most accurate Covid-19 test available currently, or so they say. South Korea used private companies to make their high volume test kits. the new US one is supposed to be more accurate and faster than the Korean version, with 15,000 tests per day volume.

    “In 2018 Trump fired Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossart”
    good fire. useless, dead weight, knows nothing, never did or accomplished anything. no particular expertise in the field. just a bureaucratic flak middle manager type from the Bush Admin. his position was admin bloat.

    “2018 Dr. Luciana Borio”
    an actual knowledgeable person, but not a relevant or important person. job overlaps with other departments, a big problem in the modern federal government. does CDC exist? yes? then why does her job exist. also, why does NSC exist at all. we don’t need 12 intelligence agencies, 2 or 3 can do a bad job all on their own. as with CDC for diseases.

    “Tim Ziemer”
    entire position was eliminated as irrelevant, redundant admin bloat. good elimination. NSC should just be eliminated, period.

    “Trump shut down the entire Global Health Security and Bio-defense agency”
    good. useless, redundant admin bloat. does CDC exist? yes? then why does this agency exist. what on earth is even a Global Health Security department? apparently it’s some international useless organization from Canada.

    “Amid the explosive worldwide outbreak of the virus Trump proposed a 19% cut”
    none of the cuts went into effect, and CDC budget is higher now than before. and let’s be honest – CDC budget should be cut. CDC wastes lots of money and time on things that are not their mission. CDC has big, mission creep admin bloat, just like most agencies. CDC can do just as bad a job as they do now, with half the budget. as director Redfield shows. a guy who seems to not be up to the job.

    “In 2018, at Trump’s direction, the CDC stopped funding epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries including China.”
    good cut. let them fund their own programs. America First. enough of this billions a year foreign aid shit. CDC offers to help foreign nations in specific crisis situations anyway. China and Africa will invent new viruses all on their own no matter how much money is flushed down there.

    “Trump didn’t appoint a doctor to oversee the US response to the pandemic. He appointed Mike Pence”
    good appointment. Mike Pence did a good job. a doctor would probably have bungled it. next we’ll complain that a scientist didn’t oversee the Manhattan Project, and instead they sent a military man named Leslie Groves who actually knew how to get serious projects done.

  270. actually important information on ventilators.

    Breitbart: ventilator manufacturers not ramping up production yet

    per the article, US has about 160,000 ventilators available, and 8000 in reserve. some of the ventilator manufacturers are mostly based in the US, so they can be made here. production can be ramped up quickly.

    if they suddenly needed 300,000 ventilators, could they get there in time? how much would it cost? what about more ventilators than that? all questions i don’t know the answers. but the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren’t completely clueless.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @prime noticer

    Even the healthcare mask manufactures are not eager to jump because they worry that the demand is a onetime thing and they will be stuck with the assembly line etc. two months from now. In China, the government has to provide assurance.

    Replies: @utu, @Philip Owen, @prime noticer

    , @Alfred
    @prime noticer


    the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren’t completely clueless
     
    These CEO's are not stupid. They know that China has hundreds of thousands of these things that are surplus to requirement. It would take a few days for the Chinese to send them to the USA by plane.

    Of course, the there is a possibility that the US will prefer to let its people die. But how can these CEO's know in advance?

    The real limiting factor is trained personnel. Would Trump allow Chinese experts come over in large numbers to make America Great Again?
    https://sc01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1XCKaPFXXXXXrapXX760XFXXXu/200120180/HTB1XCKaPFXXXXXrapXX760XFXXXu.png

    Replies: @Tor597

  271. @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Greg Bacon

    The stock market went up a thousand points today, smart guy. You got any more expert predictions?

    Replies: @Spanky

    Funny how that happens when you throw a few trillion dollars at bankers…

    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Spanky

    You're so Unz-woke!

    Replies: @Spanky

    , @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Spanky

    Now up another 1000 points. This all happened right after Trump had the news conference yesterday. Hahahaha......

    Another Unz genius, bites the dust.

    Replies: @Spanky

  272. @Spanky
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Funny how that happens when you throw a few trillion dollars at bankers...

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    You’re so Unz-woke!

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    I see you don't let things like facts get in the way of your thoughts...

  273. @peterAUS
    @Commentator Mike

    Well....I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.

    So far the execution of the agenda has been just annoying.
    I guess we are, still, in the testing phase. Round of panic input, round of squeeze.

    Now, "they" have touched a bit of circuses but, still, not breads, really. THAT is what will, IMHO, literally make or break the exercise.

    I have a vague feeling "they" are on the clock here. That makes all this a bit dangerous, but, at the same time, promising.
    I mean, for ages "we" have been waiting for SHTF scenario. Well....could be coming within months now.

    Looking at the 'alt' sphere doesn't look promising. True, most writers are retirees, and breads are still OK.

    Interesting times.

    Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard, @Commentator Mike

    Perhaps the growing xenophobia, the hatred, mistrust, and suspicion of foreigners, as a result of this panic doesn’t tie in with the goals of the globalists but I think they can work it into their plans. People are now even hating on Italians and those who have recently been to Italy or associated with them. I’m not personally like that but if it helps the cause of the sovereignists I’m not much complaining. And if all the withholding of medical services to the ill and elderly of one’s own nation (since they’re sending so many medical staff into self-isolation because they were in contact with a suspected coronavirus carrier, telling the ill not to bother turning up at hospitals and clinics as their facilities are stretched, etc.) leads to a lower regard for life, well, maybe those Greek border guards could start using live rounds. Anyway, the Afghanis and Pakistanis who now make up the bulk of the immigrants heading to Europe have all made their way through Iran so even less reason to let them in. And if the coronavirus kills off many of the geriatrics holding office and the old rich bastards, that’s not so bad either. Those Aussies living in the outback have nothing to worry about and can watch the developing chaos and panic from a safe distance.

    That Andre Vitchek must be one of the biggest globetrotters on UR as he’s always crossing borders and continents, but he hasn’t posted an article for a while now. The coronavirus must have inconvenienced his travels so he should update us on how he’s coping with this. Perhaps he’s in some quarantine somewhere, but surely they have Internet connections to send us some first-hand account of what’t it’s like in there. I have my doubts that the masses will see through this farce to rise against the growing totalitarianism but he may have other ideas. Yes, interesting times.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    @Commentator Mike

    Agree.......

    As for


    ...I have my doubts that the masses will see through this farce to rise against the growing totalitarianism but he may have other ideas.
     
    looking at all this panic around doesn't look promising.

    That's the fundamental problem. No amount of intelligence, education and experience/expertise can help if there is no courage.
    The third element in METT-T is......oh my.
    (Un)fortunately, that's the PRIMARY conclusion I am drawing from this exercise.

    So far, anyway.
    Really hoping to be proved wrong but not holding my breath.
  274. How convenient (and timely) is this elderly doomsday virus for Western Nation states looking to cut their social security and healthcare cost obligations. It’s almost as if it’s “tailor made” to kill the sick and the elderly at a time when most Western Nations could no longer afford to care for their sick and elderly.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @JEinCA


    It’s almost as if it’s “tailor made” to kill the sick and the elderly

     

    At least Pol Pot didn't resort to the sneaky way of inventing a virus to kill off the old or withholding medical care and services - he just had them shot. They should start collecting skulls of all who die from this coronavirus and piling them up so that at the end of the day we see who's the bigger monster. That's if this is even a deliberately bioengineered bioattack and if they really are killing off the elderly. And let's hope the Elders of Zion don't survive to keep on giving us more trouble than we can handle.
  275. Why does it make sense to close schools when people of school going age are basically immune from the virus?

    • Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @128

    Because they can still be carriers, genius.

  276. @The Wild Geese Howard
    @peterAUS


    Well….I was/am hoping for a bit more specific answer.
     
    Expect a big push for a cashless society, some type of social credit system similar to what Beijing has implemented, curfews, and much tighter tracking of your physical movement.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    If it’s going to happen anyway (it already is) then I would at least like to see some benefits from it, like not permanently losing 2 years of my life expectancy.

    China at least uses it to for some nice things, like suppressing vice and controlling an pandemic, which benefits own people.

    UK: “Herd immunity” yo, if you die that’s too bad, there’s a billion Africans out there we can replace you with.

    • Agree: CanSpeccy
    • Disagree: LondonBob
    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There is the worry that initial mess up of the situation was, maybe, partly caused by too tight social control. It gives the local officials too much power, and when they happen to be ignorant & arrogant, unable to face a novel challenge, the power they have magnifies the bad situation.

    This will continue to be the theme of this century. Too much power and too small brain.

  277. Why are countries like Italy and Ireland resorting to lockdowns? Hong Kong and Singapore have not and have managed to control the spread of NCOV.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @128

    Hong Kong and Singapore are more competent and had built up systems after SARS. Spain had a huge feminist march in Madrid a few days ago, big surge in cases in Madrid recently. Problem is all these countries then spread it the rest of Europe.

    , @EldnahYm
    @128

    Italy is far worse than Hong Kong. Hong Kong took measures to prevent a major spread from occurring. Meanwhile in the West people are arguing quarantines don't work, panic is a bigger problem(note that we do nothing about panic either, it's just used to justify inaction in preventing the spread of the virus), racism against Asians is a big issue, mass testing is unnecessary, coronavirus is insignificant compared to influenza, and that there's nothing we can do about the virus.

    Basically it appears Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea though all in positions for a major spread, did a good job of preventing the problem from becoming larger than they otherwise would have been(no Western country had anything comparable to the South Korea religious cult situation for example). China is the source of the virus and completely shit the bed in its initial response, but after accepting the problem took drastic measures to deal with it and undoubtedly saved numerous lives as a result. The U.S., Canada, and Western Europe neither acted quickly enough to prevent a major spread even though they had more information nor taken drastic measures after the fact. The West is incompetent.

    After this blows over, our "experts" should be studying these countries with the intent of implementing some of the same technologies and policies in their home countries come the next pandemic. I suspect most will not do this though. In particular the chances of the U.S. or Canada learning from this seem extremely low.

    Replies: @Alfred

  278. This seems a decent site with factual assessment
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  279. Strictly playing devil’s advocate:

    Whereas

    1. The overwhelming majority — the devil’s lawyer says at least 95% and awaits to be proven wrong — of the deaths and critical/serious cases are among the “superannuated”, i.e. the very old with (often multiple) pre-existing serious conditions;

    2. The “flattening of the curve” that all the “experts” are now calling for is essentially simply a flattening of the mortality curve for the superannuated, similar to what occurred in France in the “canicule” (heat wave) in France in 2003 (see earlier comment above) when deaths of the superannuated were moved forward a few months to a (maximum) year;

    3. The economic and social costs of the restrictive measures adopted so far, and the even more draconian ones certain to be increasingly adopted in the future, will be absolutely enormous, if not insupportable for many of those who actually have to work for a living (which of course excludes government employees and political leaders/parliamentarians) in a “real” workplace (which excludes journalists, editorialists, blog hosts, etc.);

    4. Closing schools is unlikely to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus to the superannuated, indeed it is likely to accelerate it since children with working parents will be spending significantly more time with their grandparents;

    5. For the non-superannuated the devil’s lawyer cites Jeffrey Klausner an expert in infectious diseases at UCLA’s Fielding School of Public Health that “It is possible, but apparently very rare that otherwise healthy people can get severe disease . . .right now we have patients in the hospital with severe influenza that were otherwise healthy people in their 40s and 50s. … It’s rare as well, but it occurs.”

    It is hereby submitted that a far better policy would be to “quarantine” the superannuated rather than destroy the world economy and the working lives of uncounted millions upon millions.

    (For the record I will add that I myself am perhaps marginally superannuated)

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    Is this age profile for Italy deaths

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf
    >90 years 14·1%
    80–89 years 42·2%
    70–79 years 32·4%
    60–69 years 8·4%
    50–59. years 2·8%
    ________________
    Total 99.9%

    so skewed because

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment, in a war-like triage to tackle coronavirus
    https://theprint.in/health/italy-prioritises-younger-patients-for-treatment-in-a-war-like-triage-to-tackle-coronavirus/379777/

    Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    What is the age profile of Chinese who died? I can't find data but there were younger people who died and their total death rate seemed to be lower than that of Italy? Were triage parameters were different in China?

    Replies: @Sparkon, @for-the-record

  280. @for-the-record
    Strictly playing devil's advocate:

    Whereas

    1. The overwhelming majority -- the devil's lawyer says at least 95% and awaits to be proven wrong -- of the deaths and critical/serious cases are among the "superannuated", i.e. the very old with (often multiple) pre-existing serious conditions;

    2. The "flattening of the curve" that all the "experts" are now calling for is essentially simply a flattening of the mortality curve for the superannuated, similar to what occurred in France in the "canicule" (heat wave) in France in 2003 (see earlier comment above) when deaths of the superannuated were moved forward a few months to a (maximum) year;

    3. The economic and social costs of the restrictive measures adopted so far, and the even more draconian ones certain to be increasingly adopted in the future, will be absolutely enormous, if not insupportable for many of those who actually have to work for a living (which of course excludes government employees and political leaders/parliamentarians) in a "real" workplace (which excludes journalists, editorialists, blog hosts, etc.);

    4. Closing schools is unlikely to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus to the superannuated, indeed it is likely to accelerate it since children with working parents will be spending significantly more time with their grandparents;

    5. For the non-superannuated the devil's lawyer cites Jeffrey Klausner an expert in infectious diseases at UCLA's Fielding School of Public Health that “It is possible, but apparently very rare that otherwise healthy people can get severe disease . . .right now we have patients in the hospital with severe influenza that were otherwise healthy people in their 40s and 50s. ... It’s rare as well, but it occurs.”

    It is hereby submitted that a far better policy would be to "quarantine" the superannuated rather than destroy the world economy and the working lives of uncounted millions upon millions.

    (For the record I will add that I myself am perhaps marginally superannuated)

    Replies: @utu

    Is this age profile for Italy deaths

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf
    >90 years 14·1%
    80–89 years 42·2%
    70–79 years 32·4%
    60–69 years 8·4%
    50–59. years 2·8%
    ________________
    Total 99.9%

    so skewed because

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment, in a war-like triage to tackle coronavirus
    https://theprint.in/health/italy-prioritises-younger-patients-for-treatment-in-a-war-like-triage-to-tackle-coronavirus/379777/

    Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    What is the age profile of Chinese who died? I can’t find data but there were younger people who died and their total death rate seemed to be lower than that of Italy? Were triage parameters were different in China?

    • Replies: @Sparkon
    @utu

    Death rate by age among first 44,672 confirmed cases in Wuhan.

    80+ 14.8%
    70-79 8.0%
    60-69 3.6%
    50-59 1.3%
    40-49 0.4%
    10-39 0.2%
    00-09 0.0%

    Death rate with existing conditions:

    • Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
    • Diabetes 7.3%
    • Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
    • High blood pressure 6%
    • Cancer 5.6%
    • No existing conditions 0.9%

    80.9% of infections described as “mild.”

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

    Wuhan has terrible air quality.

    Additionally, up to 50% of Chinese men smoke cigarettes, and reportedly there were up to 10 million Chinese vaping, or smoking so-called e-cigarettes. In fact, most e-cigarettes are made in China. In the recent past, there had been a number of news reports in the U.S. about a debilitating lung condition among young people that is associated with vaping.


    Emergency department (ED) visits related to e-cigarette, or vaping, products continue to decline, after sharply increasing in August 2019 and peaking in September.

    -- CDC
     

    Please see also my comment here with confounding info about the 1918 "Spanish Flu":

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/counting-cases-the-way-we-count-crime-focus-on-dead-bodies/#comment-3769684

    Replies: @utu

    , @for-the-record
    @utu

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment . . . Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    Up to this point, I would tend to doubt it. The actual guidelines, published on 6 March

    http://www.siaarti.it/SiteAssets/News/COVID19%20-%20documenti%20SIAARTI/SIAARTI%20-%20Covid19%20-%20Raccomandazioni%20di%20etica%20clinica.pdf

    (para. 3) say "it may be necessary" to make such a triage, and then go on to talk of a "scenario of total saturation", so it would appear that this is more of a "worst case" scenario which, at least as of a week ago, was apparently not the case.

    The guidelines also state that approximately one-tenth of infected patients will require "intensive care". Italy has around 12 critical care beds per 100,000 population (possibly more in the north where the overwhelming number of cases are). Taking 28 million as an estimate of the population of the areas where infection is most serious, this would correspond to a minimum of 3,360 critical care beds, if I have done my arithmetic correctly. As of yesterday there were 15,000 active cases, of which 1,328 were reported as serious or critical, so the 10% estimate seems not far off the mark. If there really are 3,000+ critical care beds in the affected region, these would still appear to be sufficient, but there may well be local saturation points. And in another few days or a week, with current trends, they will definitely be at overall saturation.

    For China, I can't find the stats either.

    Replies: @utu

  281. Deaths per age dont take into account each individual health status before the desease. The old saying “you get the face you deserve by age 40” is true in this respect.

    Some 40 year olds take part in the Olympics others have let themselves go & have the health of a 70 year old.

    • Replies: @Justvisiting
    @carlos217

    The focus on older folks is missing one large factor that has yet to be fully tested in the wild--obesity.

    Most health experts believe obesity at any age makes one much more vulnerable to any disease--and of course America is one of the most obese nations in the world.

    If obese folks of all ages get seriously sick from this virus, the health care system will get blown away in a hurry....

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  282. The ‘Market” lost over $1 Trillion dollars. At precisely the time when the whole US financial and banking system demands a complete overhaul, at least implement Dodd-Frank regulation, we get Coronavirus where the government commands everyone to stay home. No one is the least suspicious? The Coronavirus is a hoax, and it is now a national security crisis.

  283. @utu
    @for-the-record

    Is this age profile for Italy deaths

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf
    >90 years 14·1%
    80–89 years 42·2%
    70–79 years 32·4%
    60–69 years 8·4%
    50–59. years 2·8%
    ________________
    Total 99.9%

    so skewed because

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment, in a war-like triage to tackle coronavirus
    https://theprint.in/health/italy-prioritises-younger-patients-for-treatment-in-a-war-like-triage-to-tackle-coronavirus/379777/

    Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    What is the age profile of Chinese who died? I can't find data but there were younger people who died and their total death rate seemed to be lower than that of Italy? Were triage parameters were different in China?

    Replies: @Sparkon, @for-the-record

    Death rate by age among first 44,672 confirmed cases in Wuhan.

    80+ 14.8%
    70-79 8.0%
    60-69 3.6%
    50-59 1.3%
    40-49 0.4%
    10-39 0.2%
    00-09 0.0%

    Death rate with existing conditions:

    • Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
    • Diabetes 7.3%
    • Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
    • High blood pressure 6%
    • Cancer 5.6%
    • No existing conditions 0.9%

    80.9% of infections described as “mild.”

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

    Wuhan has terrible air quality.

    Additionally, up to 50% of Chinese men smoke cigarettes, and reportedly there were up to 10 million Chinese vaping, or smoking so-called e-cigarettes. In fact, most e-cigarettes are made in China. In the recent past, there had been a number of news reports in the U.S. about a debilitating lung condition among young people that is associated with vaping.

    Emergency department (ED) visits related to e-cigarette, or vaping, products continue to decline, after sharply increasing in August 2019 and peaking in September.

    — CDC

    Please see also my comment here with confounding info about the 1918 “Spanish Flu”:

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/counting-cases-the-way-we-count-crime-focus-on-dead-bodies/#comment-3769684

    • Replies: @utu
    @Sparkon

    Thanks, but the death rates are age normalized. I would like to see not normalized data. What is the percent of, say 70-79 years old among all victims. The numbers should add up to 100%.

    Replies: @Sparkon

  284. @128
    Why are countries like Italy and Ireland resorting to lockdowns? Hong Kong and Singapore have not and have managed to control the spread of NCOV.

    Replies: @LondonBob, @EldnahYm

    Hong Kong and Singapore are more competent and had built up systems after SARS. Spain had a huge feminist march in Madrid a few days ago, big surge in cases in Madrid recently. Problem is all these countries then spread it the rest of Europe.

  285. @Sparkon
    @utu

    Death rate by age among first 44,672 confirmed cases in Wuhan.

    80+ 14.8%
    70-79 8.0%
    60-69 3.6%
    50-59 1.3%
    40-49 0.4%
    10-39 0.2%
    00-09 0.0%

    Death rate with existing conditions:

    • Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
    • Diabetes 7.3%
    • Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
    • High blood pressure 6%
    • Cancer 5.6%
    • No existing conditions 0.9%

    80.9% of infections described as “mild.”

    https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

    Wuhan has terrible air quality.

    Additionally, up to 50% of Chinese men smoke cigarettes, and reportedly there were up to 10 million Chinese vaping, or smoking so-called e-cigarettes. In fact, most e-cigarettes are made in China. In the recent past, there had been a number of news reports in the U.S. about a debilitating lung condition among young people that is associated with vaping.


    Emergency department (ED) visits related to e-cigarette, or vaping, products continue to decline, after sharply increasing in August 2019 and peaking in September.

    -- CDC
     

    Please see also my comment here with confounding info about the 1918 "Spanish Flu":

    https://www.unz.com/isteve/counting-cases-the-way-we-count-crime-focus-on-dead-bodies/#comment-3769684

    Replies: @utu

    Thanks, but the death rates are age normalized. I would like to see not normalized data. What is the percent of, say 70-79 years old among all victims. The numbers should add up to 100%.

    • Replies: @Sparkon
    @utu

    Maybe those numbers are available, but I wonder if they would be very useful, considering that a large majority of confirmed cases report only mild symptoms. Older people are more likely to have compromised health and poor immune system response, and seek or need medical attention when ill, but young people may shrug off the mild symptoms reported for 4/5 of cases, and not present for treatment.

    Additionally, some people who have been exposed display no symptoms along with no positive test result, so it is conceivable that apparently healthy people could be carrying the virus, and I suspect they are. Nevertheless, I would like to see those numbers too, if anyone has them.

    Also, I hope you and others take the time to read Wiki's 1918 Spanish Flu article. Even now, arguments continue about the source of that virus, but as I mentioned, that particular flu bug had some very oddball epidemiology that confounds many established notions about the flu, e.g. 99% of early victims in 1918 were under the age of 65, and almost half were aged 20-40, including many pregnant women, who had the highest death rate of all.

    Replies: @utu

  286. @utu
    @for-the-record

    Is this age profile for Italy deaths

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf
    >90 years 14·1%
    80–89 years 42·2%
    70–79 years 32·4%
    60–69 years 8·4%
    50–59. years 2·8%
    ________________
    Total 99.9%

    so skewed because

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment, in a war-like triage to tackle coronavirus
    https://theprint.in/health/italy-prioritises-younger-patients-for-treatment-in-a-war-like-triage-to-tackle-coronavirus/379777/

    Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    What is the age profile of Chinese who died? I can't find data but there were younger people who died and their total death rate seemed to be lower than that of Italy? Were triage parameters were different in China?

    Replies: @Sparkon, @for-the-record

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment . . . Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    Up to this point, I would tend to doubt it. The actual guidelines, published on 6 March

    http://www.siaarti.it/SiteAssets/News/COVID19%20-%20documenti%20SIAARTI/SIAARTI%20-%20Covid19%20-%20Raccomandazioni%20di%20etica%20clinica.pdf

    (para. 3) say “it may be necessary” to make such a triage, and then go on to talk of a “scenario of total saturation”, so it would appear that this is more of a “worst case” scenario which, at least as of a week ago, was apparently not the case.

    The guidelines also state that approximately one-tenth of infected patients will require “intensive care”. Italy has around 12 critical care beds per 100,000 population (possibly more in the north where the overwhelming number of cases are). Taking 28 million as an estimate of the population of the areas where infection is most serious, this would correspond to a minimum of 3,360 critical care beds, if I have done my arithmetic correctly. As of yesterday there were 15,000 active cases, of which 1,328 were reported as serious or critical, so the 10% estimate seems not far off the mark. If there really are 3,000+ critical care beds in the affected region, these would still appear to be sufficient, but there may well be local saturation points. And in another few days or a week, with current trends, they will definitely be at overall saturation.

    For China, I can’t find the stats either.

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    50% of ICU beds are taken by the non-coronavirus patients. Italy has 5200 ICU beds.

    "If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity"
    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9

    Replies: @for-the-record

  287. So apparently recognizing cases of a flu that has been widespread since August appears as the rise of a pandemic:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/zlj517/status/1238111898828066823

  288. @JEinCA
    How convenient (and timely) is this elderly doomsday virus for Western Nation states looking to cut their social security and healthcare cost obligations. It's almost as if it's "tailor made" to kill the sick and the elderly at a time when most Western Nations could no longer afford to care for their sick and elderly.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    It’s almost as if it’s “tailor made” to kill the sick and the elderly

    At least Pol Pot didn’t resort to the sneaky way of inventing a virus to kill off the old or withholding medical care and services – he just had them shot. They should start collecting skulls of all who die from this coronavirus and piling them up so that at the end of the day we see who’s the bigger monster. That’s if this is even a deliberately bioengineered bioattack and if they really are killing off the elderly. And let’s hope the Elders of Zion don’t survive to keep on giving us more trouble than we can handle.

  289. @carlos217
    Deaths per age dont take into account each individual health status before the desease. The old saying "you get the face you deserve by age 40" is true in this respect.

    Some 40 year olds take part in the Olympics others have let themselves go & have the health of a 70 year old.

    Replies: @Justvisiting

    The focus on older folks is missing one large factor that has yet to be fully tested in the wild–obesity.

    Most health experts believe obesity at any age makes one much more vulnerable to any disease–and of course America is one of the most obese nations in the world.

    If obese folks of all ages get seriously sick from this virus, the health care system will get blown away in a hurry….

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Justvisiting

    Manifested as T2 diabetes, the death rate is high. high blood sugar feeds the beasts. Insulin resistance drops massively with some colds as virus replication demands energy.

  290. @LondonBob

    My Chinese colleague from work's parents have been holed up in an apartment in Zhengzhou for 45 days with only minimal freedom to go out for supplies by appointment, then a virtual battery of heat and temperature tests to get back in the building.
    The city (10 million) hasn't had a new case for 2 weeks and they were on the verge of relaxing the strict isolation rules.
    Then some Chinese fella who'd been travelling in Europe returned to Zhengzhou, travelled home on public transport doing his shopping on the way, and it turns out he's infected.
    I don't know the precise translation from mandarin but it was something like "the whole city want to string him up"
     

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist

    I have heard that the local government in Zhengzhou has become famous for how strict its quarantine measures are.

  291. @for-the-record
    @utu

    Italy prioritises younger patients for treatment . . . Is it possible that some younger patients did get treatment they did not need at expense of older patients who could have been saved?

    Up to this point, I would tend to doubt it. The actual guidelines, published on 6 March

    http://www.siaarti.it/SiteAssets/News/COVID19%20-%20documenti%20SIAARTI/SIAARTI%20-%20Covid19%20-%20Raccomandazioni%20di%20etica%20clinica.pdf

    (para. 3) say "it may be necessary" to make such a triage, and then go on to talk of a "scenario of total saturation", so it would appear that this is more of a "worst case" scenario which, at least as of a week ago, was apparently not the case.

    The guidelines also state that approximately one-tenth of infected patients will require "intensive care". Italy has around 12 critical care beds per 100,000 population (possibly more in the north where the overwhelming number of cases are). Taking 28 million as an estimate of the population of the areas where infection is most serious, this would correspond to a minimum of 3,360 critical care beds, if I have done my arithmetic correctly. As of yesterday there were 15,000 active cases, of which 1,328 were reported as serious or critical, so the 10% estimate seems not far off the mark. If there really are 3,000+ critical care beds in the affected region, these would still appear to be sufficient, but there may well be local saturation points. And in another few days or a week, with current trends, they will definitely be at overall saturation.

    For China, I can't find the stats either.

    Replies: @utu

    50% of ICU beds are taken by the non-coronavirus patients. Italy has 5200 ICU beds.

    “If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity”
    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @utu

    “If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity”

    That's what I said, isn't it ("And in another few days or a week, with current trends, they will definitely be at overall saturation")?

  292. @utu
    @Sparkon

    Thanks, but the death rates are age normalized. I would like to see not normalized data. What is the percent of, say 70-79 years old among all victims. The numbers should add up to 100%.

    Replies: @Sparkon

    Maybe those numbers are available, but I wonder if they would be very useful, considering that a large majority of confirmed cases report only mild symptoms. Older people are more likely to have compromised health and poor immune system response, and seek or need medical attention when ill, but young people may shrug off the mild symptoms reported for 4/5 of cases, and not present for treatment.

    Additionally, some people who have been exposed display no symptoms along with no positive test result, so it is conceivable that apparently healthy people could be carrying the virus, and I suspect they are. Nevertheless, I would like to see those numbers too, if anyone has them.

    Also, I hope you and others take the time to read Wiki’s 1918 Spanish Flu article. Even now, arguments continue about the source of that virus, but as I mentioned, that particular flu bug had some very oddball epidemiology that confounds many established notions about the flu, e.g. 99% of early victims in 1918 were under the age of 65, and almost half were aged 20-40, including many pregnant women, who had the highest death rate of all.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Sparkon

    "Maybe those numbers are available." - I am sure they are and they are useful for comparison with other populations. The numbers are raw and not affected by the number of infected unlike the death rates that you have posted.

  293. Smoking rates. The worst offenders in 2018. Russia has a problem on the way. Indonesia should worry but maybe it is too far South. The rest are small.

    The ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Philip Owen

    Heavy smoking is becoming less popular every year in Russia, and this 41% you cite surely includes people who only smoke lightly or socially. (In which case, effect on lungs is not so severe).

    I worry more (aside from the climate conditions) about effects of the terrible air pollution in many Russian cities.

    Correlation is not indicator of causation, but at best just something to investigate - there has been a correlation in Italy between air pollution regions (as pm 2,5) and where the community spread and deaths of the virus are highest.

    https://i.imgur.com/Nf0nJDc.png

    If the EU tried to use its weak equipment measure air pollution in certain cities in Russia, the strong chemicals in the air would probably melt their equipment, of course.

    Here is also EU data for pm10.

    https://i.imgur.com/ehd8YxQ.png


    Italy is very high for deaths from air pollution, and this will be more extreme on a regional basis, as air pollution is concentrated in Lombardy, Emilia-Romana, etc.
    https://i.imgur.com/B6FSM0L.jpg

  294. @Justvisiting
    @carlos217

    The focus on older folks is missing one large factor that has yet to be fully tested in the wild--obesity.

    Most health experts believe obesity at any age makes one much more vulnerable to any disease--and of course America is one of the most obese nations in the world.

    If obese folks of all ages get seriously sick from this virus, the health care system will get blown away in a hurry....

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Manifested as T2 diabetes, the death rate is high. high blood sugar feeds the beasts. Insulin resistance drops massively with some colds as virus replication demands energy.

  295. @Sparkon
    @utu

    Maybe those numbers are available, but I wonder if they would be very useful, considering that a large majority of confirmed cases report only mild symptoms. Older people are more likely to have compromised health and poor immune system response, and seek or need medical attention when ill, but young people may shrug off the mild symptoms reported for 4/5 of cases, and not present for treatment.

    Additionally, some people who have been exposed display no symptoms along with no positive test result, so it is conceivable that apparently healthy people could be carrying the virus, and I suspect they are. Nevertheless, I would like to see those numbers too, if anyone has them.

    Also, I hope you and others take the time to read Wiki's 1918 Spanish Flu article. Even now, arguments continue about the source of that virus, but as I mentioned, that particular flu bug had some very oddball epidemiology that confounds many established notions about the flu, e.g. 99% of early victims in 1918 were under the age of 65, and almost half were aged 20-40, including many pregnant women, who had the highest death rate of all.

    Replies: @utu

    “Maybe those numbers are available.” – I am sure they are and they are useful for comparison with other populations. The numbers are raw and not affected by the number of infected unlike the death rates that you have posted.

  296. Dr. Leopoldo Salmaso
    Nuova intervista all’epidemiologo Salmaso
    https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-il_tasso_di_letalit_del_coronavirus_in_italia__almeno_10_volte_inferiore_ai_dati_ufficiali_nuova_intervista_allepidemiologo_salmaso/5496_33545/

    Q. Well, can you tell us more about the last seasonal influence in Italy of which the official data are available?

    A. Yes, on the seasonal flu 2017-18, it appears that 8.7 million people turned to the family doctor / pediatrician by phone for a “flu-like syndrome”. Less than 1/4 were visited by the doctor. No fewer than 18,000 people died “with flu complications”, mostly the elderly. Of those 18,000, only 173 (1 in 100) died in a ICU ward and in all there were 764 “serious cases of confirmed flu in ICU patients”. That is, the other 17,000 people died at home, or in a nursing home, or in some hospital ward, with no confirmed diagnosis of flu. If the media had unleashed the current uproar two years ago, no less than 75,000 patients with influenza would have clogged up the reanimations, at the rate of 750 new admissions every day (so far we have hospitalized 650 in resuscitation in all). These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @utu

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Important article, but there are several additional words left out at the end which are worth highlighting:


    Questi dati confermano che siamo di fronte a una epidemia di panico e che gli untori per eccellenza sono i media.

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic and that the "anointers" par excellence are the media.
     
    During the Italian (bubonic) Plague of 1629-1631, "anointers" were the persons hysterically suspected of deliberately spreading the plague via ointments they surreptitiously placed on doors and walls (shades of Skripal!).

    Replies: @utu

    , @CanSpeccy
    @utu


    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.
     
    Moon of Alabama cites the NY Times claiming that as a result of the virus:

    As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people [in the US] could die.
     
    Which implies that COVID19-caused mortality will be three to twenty-five times the normal flu-related mortality. So either the NY Times et al. are spreading lies to promote panic, or there is something to panic about.

    Being too old to be a boomer, thank God, I am not panicking, but I don't want another dose of flu, lethal or otherwise, and if governments are planning to do nothing to protect the population from a batflu epidemic, I hope the SOBs get it themselves, good and hard.
  297. [MORE]

    Mar 14, 2020 Coronavirus Reveals China’s Darkest Secret | China Uncensored

    And I don’t mean the Mr. Bean impersonator who’s become a mouthpiece of Chinese Communist Party propaganda in Wuhan. Organ harvesting of prisoners of conscience, mainly Falun Gong practitioners or Uighur Muslims, may be providing lung transplants for coronavirus victims.

    • LOL: Alfred
    • Troll: Owen C.
    • Replies: @last straw
    @Agent76

    Can't get enough Falun Gong stuff and their clown announcer?

  298. @Alfred
    @CanSpeccy


    A result of the decision, Boris Johnson has announced, is that many families will lose an elderly loved one
     
    Can you think of a better way to "save the NHS"?

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    Can you think of a better way to “save the NHS”?

    Is there any reason I should want to save the NHS?

  299. @Redneck farmer
    @Wizard of Oz

    Dude, the majority of people who don't get vaccinated for the flu in America can afford it. They don't want to take the time or don't think the vaccine is going to work or are scared of needles.

    Replies: @Wizard of Oz, @Wizard of Oz

    I have just read this

    Coronavirus: Why systemic problems leave the US at risk – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51840233

    It refers to 27 million Americans who have no health insurance at all, plus 11 million “undocumented immigrants” and all those whose cover is so inadequate that they would give up on fluvax to pay family food bills.

  300. [MORE]

    Notice all the reports on coronavirus that contain the number 33 ie the occult number and masonic number and the Illuminati that released this virus are signing their 33 to let the world know that they created it and there is not a damn thing we goyim can do about it.

  301. @utu
    @for-the-record

    50% of ICU beds are taken by the non-coronavirus patients. Italy has 5200 ICU beds.

    "If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity"
    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9

    Replies: @for-the-record

    “If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity”

    That’s what I said, isn’t it (“And in another few days or a week, with current trends, they will definitely be at overall saturation”)?

  302. @Commentator Mike
    All good this exercise at modelling and predicting but do we really know enough (and will we ever) to bother?

    Looking at the case of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, there are now over 700 confirmed COVID-19 cases out of originally 3700 people. Does anyone know how many of the people on that ship caught the regular seasonal flue and how many died of it? After all the conditions on that ship should be ideal for the spreading of ordinary colds and flu. It would be interesting to know just to put this COVID-19 in perspective.

    So they tell us that COVID-19 is more contagious and deadlier than the regular flu. But is it? Not each flu is the same every season and some are deadlier than others. And how good are these tests really?

    I like a good conspiracy like anyone else, so how about that this is the regular seasonal flu which Big Pharma failed to predict adequately so its vaccines were useless in preventing a massive global outbreak or protecting those who took the vaccine? In order to cover up their failure they tried to find someone else to blame so they turned to China and bat soup and now we have these biowarfare theories. Of course they may develop some other useless vaccine that they'll administer and profit from but new variants of the flu will emerge in the future regardless.

    Replies: @OscarWildeLoveChild

    The Diamond Princess is a great test of the parameters of this virus. They were literally stuck together like a petri dish for what, a month? a few weeks. No one under 70 has died, and some tested negative and many were asymptomatic who were positive.

    Just seems like it’s not really all that deadly.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @OscarWildeLoveChild

    No doubt it's a great case study but how much of what the experts learn will they tell us, the public? There's a few more cruise liners out there in a similar predicament but most, if not all, have managed to get their passengers off board by now.


    Just seems like it’s not really all that deadly.
     
    Considering the close proximity between passengers due to crowding on those liners and the centralised air conditioning, the conditions for spreading the virus must be worse than for the rest of us in the general population. Unfortunately they sent the passengers home and some are only now testing positive and dying in their home countries, so we won't be able to get conclusive data from this worst case scenario and people can keep on speculating:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/28/six-people-from-the-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-have-now-died-from-covid-19-after-quarantine-failure/#29bdd85c3654

    Going by this latest data of 6 dead out of the 705 infected, the death rate is 0.85%, and the infection rate about 19%, under these worst conditions. It would be useful to know the age distribution of the passengers, infected, and dead. The Forbes report concludes:

    It is not known how many people are still sick or indeed how many people may still get sick from the ship, but further fatalities are not unlikely given that cruises tend to be popular with older people
     
    , @yakushimaru
    @OscarWildeLoveChild

    There was a data point that even in a family, tight contact, that is, only 10% got infected. (And among them, not all get serious symptoms.)

    So it simply cannot be that deadly. So far, other than the events in Wuhan, all other signs do not tell a very bad story. Events in Italy are still not at the Wuhan level.

  303. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html

    “Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”

    He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”

    500,000 infected? So what is the CFR now? Less than 0.1%?

  304. @utu
    Dr. Leopoldo Salmaso
    Nuova intervista all'epidemiologo Salmaso
    https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-il_tasso_di_letalit_del_coronavirus_in_italia__almeno_10_volte_inferiore_ai_dati_ufficiali_nuova_intervista_allepidemiologo_salmaso/5496_33545/

    Q. Well, can you tell us more about the last seasonal influence in Italy of which the official data are available?

    A. Yes, on the seasonal flu 2017-18, it appears that 8.7 million people turned to the family doctor / pediatrician by phone for a "flu-like syndrome". Less than 1/4 were visited by the doctor. No fewer than 18,000 people died "with flu complications", mostly the elderly. Of those 18,000, only 173 (1 in 100) died in a ICU ward and in all there were 764 "serious cases of confirmed flu in ICU patients". That is, the other 17,000 people died at home, or in a nursing home, or in some hospital ward, with no confirmed diagnosis of flu. If the media had unleashed the current uproar two years ago, no less than 75,000 patients with influenza would have clogged up the reanimations, at the rate of 750 new admissions every day (so far we have hospitalized 650 in resuscitation in all). These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @CanSpeccy

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Important article, but there are several additional words left out at the end which are worth highlighting:

    Questi dati confermano che siamo di fronte a una epidemia di panico e che gli untori per eccellenza sono i media.

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic and that the “anointers” par excellence are the media.

    During the Italian (bubonic) Plague of 1629-1631, “anointers” were the persons hysterically suspected of deliberately spreading the plague via ointments they surreptitiously placed on doors and walls (shades of Skripal!).

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    Thanks.

    About Italian media. Weren't Italian media the first that got 'tabloidized' before there was Sky in the UK and Fox in the US? Wasn't Berlusconi Trump's precursor? Can we entertain an idea that Italians will be very susceptible to mass hysteria operation?

    Wasn't Italy in Cold War a proving ground for various false-flag operations under the name of Gladio that had close links to Italian Deep Sate? Could we assume that the structures that supported Gladio still exist and are available to be used in new operations?

    I am sure you know where I am heading? What if that what we see in Italy is a part of some operation? That certain of panic and send eof apocalypse was needed for the next state of the third act. (First Act: China, Second Act: Italy, Third Act: ?)

  305. @OscarWildeLoveChild
    @Commentator Mike

    The Diamond Princess is a great test of the parameters of this virus. They were literally stuck together like a petri dish for what, a month? a few weeks. No one under 70 has died, and some tested negative and many were asymptomatic who were positive.

    Just seems like it's not really all that deadly.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @yakushimaru

    No doubt it’s a great case study but how much of what the experts learn will they tell us, the public? There’s a few more cruise liners out there in a similar predicament but most, if not all, have managed to get their passengers off board by now.

    Just seems like it’s not really all that deadly.

    Considering the close proximity between passengers due to crowding on those liners and the centralised air conditioning, the conditions for spreading the virus must be worse than for the rest of us in the general population. Unfortunately they sent the passengers home and some are only now testing positive and dying in their home countries, so we won’t be able to get conclusive data from this worst case scenario and people can keep on speculating:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/28/six-people-from-the-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-have-now-died-from-covid-19-after-quarantine-failure/#29bdd85c3654

    Going by this latest data of 6 dead out of the 705 infected, the death rate is 0.85%, and the infection rate about 19%, under these worst conditions. It would be useful to know the age distribution of the passengers, infected, and dead. The Forbes report concludes:

    It is not known how many people are still sick or indeed how many people may still get sick from the ship, but further fatalities are not unlikely given that cruises tend to be popular with older people

  306. @for-the-record
    @utu

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Important article, but there are several additional words left out at the end which are worth highlighting:


    Questi dati confermano che siamo di fronte a una epidemia di panico e che gli untori per eccellenza sono i media.

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic and that the "anointers" par excellence are the media.
     
    During the Italian (bubonic) Plague of 1629-1631, "anointers" were the persons hysterically suspected of deliberately spreading the plague via ointments they surreptitiously placed on doors and walls (shades of Skripal!).

    Replies: @utu

    Thanks.

    About Italian media. Weren’t Italian media the first that got ‘tabloidized’ before there was Sky in the UK and Fox in the US? Wasn’t Berlusconi Trump’s precursor? Can we entertain an idea that Italians will be very susceptible to mass hysteria operation?

    Wasn’t Italy in Cold War a proving ground for various false-flag operations under the name of Gladio that had close links to Italian Deep Sate? Could we assume that the structures that supported Gladio still exist and are available to be used in new operations?

    I am sure you know where I am heading? What if that what we see in Italy is a part of some operation? That certain of panic and send eof apocalypse was needed for the next state of the third act. (First Act: China, Second Act: Italy, Third Act: ?)

  307. From a statement today by Silvio Brusaferro, President of the Istituto superiore di sanità in Rome:

    Of the coronavirus deaths to date [1,266] the number of persons who are not confirmed to have other pathologies is two. [No misprint there]

    And in these two cases, the examination of the files has not yet been completed, so it is possible that causes of death other than coronavirus may emerge.

    https://www.agenzianova.com/primopiano/846/coronavirus-iss-i-decessi-finora-accertati-in-italia-per-causa-del-covid-19-sono-solo-due

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU's and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @utu

  308. @OscarWildeLoveChild
    @Commentator Mike

    The Diamond Princess is a great test of the parameters of this virus. They were literally stuck together like a petri dish for what, a month? a few weeks. No one under 70 has died, and some tested negative and many were asymptomatic who were positive.

    Just seems like it's not really all that deadly.

    Replies: @Commentator Mike, @yakushimaru

    There was a data point that even in a family, tight contact, that is, only 10% got infected. (And among them, not all get serious symptoms.)

    So it simply cannot be that deadly. So far, other than the events in Wuhan, all other signs do not tell a very bad story. Events in Italy are still not at the Wuhan level.

  309. @Anatoly Karlin
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    If it's going to happen anyway (it already is) then I would at least like to see some benefits from it, like not permanently losing 2 years of my life expectancy.

    China at least uses it to for some nice things, like suppressing vice and controlling an pandemic, which benefits own people.

    UK: "Herd immunity" yo, if you die that's too bad, there's a billion Africans out there we can replace you with.

    Replies: @yakushimaru

    There is the worry that initial mess up of the situation was, maybe, partly caused by too tight social control. It gives the local officials too much power, and when they happen to be ignorant & arrogant, unable to face a novel challenge, the power they have magnifies the bad situation.

    This will continue to be the theme of this century. Too much power and too small brain.

  310. @for-the-record
    From a statement today by Silvio Brusaferro, President of the Istituto superiore di sanità in Rome:

    Of the coronavirus deaths to date [1,266] the number of persons who are not confirmed to have other pathologies is two. [No misprint there]

    And in these two cases, the examination of the files has not yet been completed, so it is possible that causes of death other than coronavirus may emerge.

    https://www.agenzianova.com/primopiano/846/coronavirus-iss-i-decessi-finora-accertati-in-italia-per-causa-del-covid-19-sono-solo-due

    Replies: @utu

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @utu

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    That is an interesting question, no doubt. For me, however, the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.

    Replies: @utu, @reiner Tor

    , @utu
    @utu


    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.
     
    Triaging creates its own statistic bias in the age dependent CFRs - a self-fulfilling prophesy. Corona virus will kill because you are old = we let corona virus kill you because you are old.

    Italian coronavirus victims over 80 will not receive treatment if situation worsens under emergency plans, as PM warns country is entering its 'riskiest weeks'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8116223/Italian-coronavirus-victims-80-not-receive-intensive-care.html
     

    Replies: @Dmitry

  311. @prime noticer
    actually important information on ventilators.

    Breitbart: ventilator manufacturers not ramping up production yet

    per the article, US has about 160,000 ventilators available, and 8000 in reserve. some of the ventilator manufacturers are mostly based in the US, so they can be made here. production can be ramped up quickly.

    if they suddenly needed 300,000 ventilators, could they get there in time? how much would it cost? what about more ventilators than that? all questions i don't know the answers. but the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren't completely clueless.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @Alfred

    Even the healthcare mask manufactures are not eager to jump because they worry that the demand is a onetime thing and they will be stuck with the assembly line etc. two months from now. In China, the government has to provide assurance.

    • Replies: @utu
    @yakushimaru

    Taiwan has only 50 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3

    Around the same time, the government banned the export of face masks and ensured they were affordable by capping prices at about $0.17 each.

    By late February, Taipei had distributed nearly 6.5 million masks to primary and secondary schools, as well as after-school institutions, plus 84,000 liters of hand sanitizer and 25,000 forehead thermometers.

    , @Philip Owen
    @yakushimaru

    Yes. i can confirm that from direct experience.

    , @prime noticer
    @yakushimaru

    the CNN death rate did not go up today, despite them being DESPERATE for as many Americans to die from this thing as possible. you know for sure they are hunting high and low for dead old boomers the way they hunt every day for africans getting killed by the police.

    and the CEOs who manufacture medical stuff are still not in a hurry to mass produce equipment that they might not even be able to sell in 1 month. so the smart people with billion dollar companies on the line are watching closely and are not anywhere close to hitting the panic button like unpaid internet posters have been.

    we will check back in a few days. something tells me the death rate in the US will be way below the hysteria.

  312. @128
    Why are countries like Italy and Ireland resorting to lockdowns? Hong Kong and Singapore have not and have managed to control the spread of NCOV.

    Replies: @LondonBob, @EldnahYm

    Italy is far worse than Hong Kong. Hong Kong took measures to prevent a major spread from occurring. Meanwhile in the West people are arguing quarantines don’t work, panic is a bigger problem(note that we do nothing about panic either, it’s just used to justify inaction in preventing the spread of the virus), racism against Asians is a big issue, mass testing is unnecessary, coronavirus is insignificant compared to influenza, and that there’s nothing we can do about the virus.

    Basically it appears Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea though all in positions for a major spread, did a good job of preventing the problem from becoming larger than they otherwise would have been(no Western country had anything comparable to the South Korea religious cult situation for example). China is the source of the virus and completely shit the bed in its initial response, but after accepting the problem took drastic measures to deal with it and undoubtedly saved numerous lives as a result. The U.S., Canada, and Western Europe neither acted quickly enough to prevent a major spread even though they had more information nor taken drastic measures after the fact. The West is incompetent.

    After this blows over, our “experts” should be studying these countries with the intent of implementing some of the same technologies and policies in their home countries come the next pandemic. I suspect most will not do this though. In particular the chances of the U.S. or Canada learning from this seem extremely low.

    • Replies: @Alfred
    @EldnahYm

    Quite correct. Here is how the European Union, USA, UK, Canada etc. are handling it.

    Yes Minister (ancient BBC TV series)

    https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Yes-Minister-Phases.mp4

  313. @yakushimaru
    @prime noticer

    Even the healthcare mask manufactures are not eager to jump because they worry that the demand is a onetime thing and they will be stuck with the assembly line etc. two months from now. In China, the government has to provide assurance.

    Replies: @utu, @Philip Owen, @prime noticer

    Taiwan has only 50 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-taiwan-case-study-rapid-response-containment-2020-3

    Around the same time, the government banned the export of face masks and ensured they were affordable by capping prices at about $0.17 each.

    By late February, Taipei had distributed nearly 6.5 million masks to primary and secondary schools, as well as after-school institutions, plus 84,000 liters of hand sanitizer and 25,000 forehead thermometers.

  314. @utu
    @for-the-record

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU's and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @utu

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    That is an interesting question, no doubt. For me, however, the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.

    • Replies: @utu
    @for-the-record

    "...the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria." - Yes. Look at Taiwan as alternative.

    , @reiner Tor
    @for-the-record


    the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.
     
    The Western world, South Korea, and China. Including the Zhongnanhai. Maybe they watch too much TV?
  315. @EldnahYm
    @128

    Italy is far worse than Hong Kong. Hong Kong took measures to prevent a major spread from occurring. Meanwhile in the West people are arguing quarantines don't work, panic is a bigger problem(note that we do nothing about panic either, it's just used to justify inaction in preventing the spread of the virus), racism against Asians is a big issue, mass testing is unnecessary, coronavirus is insignificant compared to influenza, and that there's nothing we can do about the virus.

    Basically it appears Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea though all in positions for a major spread, did a good job of preventing the problem from becoming larger than they otherwise would have been(no Western country had anything comparable to the South Korea religious cult situation for example). China is the source of the virus and completely shit the bed in its initial response, but after accepting the problem took drastic measures to deal with it and undoubtedly saved numerous lives as a result. The U.S., Canada, and Western Europe neither acted quickly enough to prevent a major spread even though they had more information nor taken drastic measures after the fact. The West is incompetent.

    After this blows over, our "experts" should be studying these countries with the intent of implementing some of the same technologies and policies in their home countries come the next pandemic. I suspect most will not do this though. In particular the chances of the U.S. or Canada learning from this seem extremely low.

    Replies: @Alfred

    Quite correct. Here is how the European Union, USA, UK, Canada etc. are handling it.

    Yes Minister (ancient BBC TV series)

    • LOL: EldnahYm
  316. This is f***ing nuts, excuse my Greek.

    “All of the beaches have been closed in the country”. At this time of year on the beach I go to I am the only person there.

    Similarly, all outdoor eating spaces — where the air circulates and acts as a natural disinfectant — are to be closed, while the indoor spaces (which will now be twice as crowded) remain open.

    Grocery stores are to operate at reduced hours, since more crowding and longer lines will promote health.

    For good measure, I will add that where I live, there is not a confirmed coronavirus case within 500 km.

    • Replies: @AP
    @for-the-record

    I'm not convinced that this is a hoax, but clearly there is a mountain of hysteria and stupidity overlaying the actual events.

  317. @for-the-record
    @utu

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    That is an interesting question, no doubt. For me, however, the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.

    Replies: @utu, @reiner Tor

    “…the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.” – Yes. Look at Taiwan as alternative.

  318. @utu
    Dr. Leopoldo Salmaso
    Nuova intervista all'epidemiologo Salmaso
    https://www.lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-il_tasso_di_letalit_del_coronavirus_in_italia__almeno_10_volte_inferiore_ai_dati_ufficiali_nuova_intervista_allepidemiologo_salmaso/5496_33545/

    Q. Well, can you tell us more about the last seasonal influence in Italy of which the official data are available?

    A. Yes, on the seasonal flu 2017-18, it appears that 8.7 million people turned to the family doctor / pediatrician by phone for a "flu-like syndrome". Less than 1/4 were visited by the doctor. No fewer than 18,000 people died "with flu complications", mostly the elderly. Of those 18,000, only 173 (1 in 100) died in a ICU ward and in all there were 764 "serious cases of confirmed flu in ICU patients". That is, the other 17,000 people died at home, or in a nursing home, or in some hospital ward, with no confirmed diagnosis of flu. If the media had unleashed the current uproar two years ago, no less than 75,000 patients with influenza would have clogged up the reanimations, at the rate of 750 new admissions every day (so far we have hospitalized 650 in resuscitation in all). These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Replies: @for-the-record, @CanSpeccy

    These data confirm that we are facing a panic epidemic.

    Moon of Alabama cites the NY Times claiming that as a result of the virus:

    As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people [in the US] could die.

    Which implies that COVID19-caused mortality will be three to twenty-five times the normal flu-related mortality. So either the NY Times et al. are spreading lies to promote panic, or there is something to panic about.

    Being too old to be a boomer, thank God, I am not panicking, but I don’t want another dose of flu, lethal or otherwise, and if governments are planning to do nothing to protect the population from a batflu epidemic, I hope the SOBs get it themselves, good and hard.

  319. An excellent exposition of the concept of “herd immunity” in this three-minute video.

    The video explains how vaccination works. But as the note below the video explains, “Letting the healthy get it [the virus], while the more vulnerable are kept physically separated from the majority” has the same effect as vaccination in cutting the reproduction number or rate of transmission.

    It’s actually a cool idea. Be interesting to see if it works.

    • Replies: @Tor597
    @CanSpeccy

    Are you really that stupid?

    The Anglo way is the most unethical act out of anyone.

    Just let the poor people all die to build up herd immunity while the rich are isolated in their suburbs? The rich will get the best care while poor will be left to die.

    Quit being such an Anglo apologist.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    , @Kent Nationalist
    @CanSpeccy

    They'll look pretty silly if a significant proportion of people are infertile/vulnerable to subsequent infections.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

  320. @128
    Why does it make sense to close schools when people of school going age are basically immune from the virus?

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Because they can still be carriers, genius.

  321. @Spanky
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Funny how that happens when you throw a few trillion dollars at bankers...

    Replies: @Gleimhart Mantooso, @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Now up another 1000 points. This all happened right after Trump had the news conference yesterday. Hahahaha……

    Another Unz genius, bites the dust.

    • Replies: @Spanky
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    Yep, throw enough money at bankers and happy headlines at their algos and the market goes up. Who'd a thunk it...

    Thanks for making my point.

  322. More statistics from Italy, courtesy of Istituto Superiore di Sanità:

    1. Average age at death — men (80.3), women (84.2)

    2. Average patient age — 65

    As of yesterday, there had been 6 deaths of people under age 50

  323. @prime noticer
    actually important information on ventilators.

    Breitbart: ventilator manufacturers not ramping up production yet

    per the article, US has about 160,000 ventilators available, and 8000 in reserve. some of the ventilator manufacturers are mostly based in the US, so they can be made here. production can be ramped up quickly.

    if they suddenly needed 300,000 ventilators, could they get there in time? how much would it cost? what about more ventilators than that? all questions i don't know the answers. but the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren't completely clueless.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @Alfred

    the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren’t completely clueless

    These CEO’s are not stupid. They know that China has hundreds of thousands of these things that are surplus to requirement. It would take a few days for the Chinese to send them to the USA by plane.

    Of course, the there is a possibility that the US will prefer to let its people die. But how can these CEO’s know in advance?

    The real limiting factor is trained personnel. Would Trump allow Chinese experts come over in large numbers to make America Great Again?

    • Replies: @Tor597
    @Alfred

    While the whole world needs this equipment, why would China supply America since America obviously sees China as its mortal enemy and likely initiated the bio attack to begin with.

    Better for China to send the supplies to countries that aren't psychotic like Italy and other civilized countries.

  324. @Just Passing Through
    The most prevalent 'conspiracy theory' as of now seems to be that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, it is interesting to note the Chinese official who tabled the suggestion that the US World Military Games team brought the virus to China, were the anti-China theories reaching such an intensity that he had to go on the offensive?

    It is interesting to note that the PR image that China has been carefully cultivating is in tatters now as people covertly or overtly ridicule their culture in regards to wet markets. The US bioweapon angle does have some credibility to it I suppose, but none of that matters as the majority of Westerners prefer to place the blame on China.

    Replies: @yakushimaru, @utu, @Daniel Chieh, @GammaRay, @Astuteobservor II

    Gotta ask, why in the bloody hell do anons still think PR matters? If the Chinese confirms this as a bioweapons attack, get ready for a counter attack of the same.

    What goes through that head of yours? Omfg, we are about to kill them the same way, let’s hope they care? Think China would gives a flying damn what the retarded public of the west thinks at that point?

    Think harder. If you could.

    • Replies: @MikePToo
    @Astuteobservor II

    It would be interesting to know how many, if any, of the US military personnel who were "coincidentally" in China at precisely the opportune time, are infected.
    After all, the US government is neither averse to nor hesitant about using its own population as guinea pigs or cannon fodder.

  325. @CanSpeccy
    An excellent exposition of the concept of "herd immunity" in this three-minute video.

    The video explains how vaccination works. But as the note below the video explains, "Letting the healthy get it [the virus], while the more vulnerable are kept physically separated from the majority" has the same effect as vaccination in cutting the reproduction number or rate of transmission.

    It's actually a cool idea. Be interesting to see if it works.

    Replies: @Tor597, @Kent Nationalist

    Are you really that stupid?

    The Anglo way is the most unethical act out of anyone.

    Just let the poor people all die to build up herd immunity while the rich are isolated in their suburbs? The rich will get the best care while poor will be left to die.

    Quit being such an Anglo apologist.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Tor597


    Are you really that stupid?
     
    Depends what "that stupid" you are referring to.

    How about you?

    I said the idea of confining infection to those able to survive infection without serious long-term health impairment while protecting the vulnerable, thereby reducing the Reproduction number for the population at large, made sense. Whether the policy is being, or could be, executed effectively I'm not in a position to say.

    Are you?

    Probably not.

    But the way it turns out will be evident quite soon.

  326. @Alfred
    @prime noticer


    the CEOs of these companies are, obviously, watching everything closely, and aren’t completely clueless
     
    These CEO's are not stupid. They know that China has hundreds of thousands of these things that are surplus to requirement. It would take a few days for the Chinese to send them to the USA by plane.

    Of course, the there is a possibility that the US will prefer to let its people die. But how can these CEO's know in advance?

    The real limiting factor is trained personnel. Would Trump allow Chinese experts come over in large numbers to make America Great Again?
    https://sc01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1XCKaPFXXXXXrapXX760XFXXXu/200120180/HTB1XCKaPFXXXXXrapXX760XFXXXu.png

    Replies: @Tor597

    While the whole world needs this equipment, why would China supply America since America obviously sees China as its mortal enemy and likely initiated the bio attack to begin with.

    Better for China to send the supplies to countries that aren’t psychotic like Italy and other civilized countries.

  327. Endia has already closed borders and tested 1,00,000 (1 lakh) ppl.

    2020 nibba!

    • Replies: @Just Passing Through
    @Anonloc

    India has the right strategy, just don't test that many people and let the Western hysteria blow over, they don't have many old people anyway and the ones that are there are a burden.

    If Westerners had an ounce of pragmatism and ruthlesness they would let this virus spread to remove the old people who are an economic burden.

    Replies: @Hempus

  328. @JimB
    @last straw


    The virus probably will soon be extinct in China and become as American as apple pie.
     
    Nah. It was made by the Chinese, who have most of the current cases, and it will recur. Time to quarantine the Sick Man of Asia for at least a decade.

    Replies: @last straw

    Nah. It was made by the Chinese, who have most of the current cases, and it will recur. Time to quarantine the Sick Man of Asia for at least a decade.

    The average Americans are so thoroughly brainwashed by their own MSM about China, they just do not know better: China overtakes U.S. for healthy lifespan: WHO data

    Meanwhile in Sacramento:

    Public health officials in California’s state capital region announced this week they have stopped tracing the contacts of patients diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. They’ve also ceased recommending quarantines for residents exposed to people confirmed to have the virus.

    https://californiahealthline.org/news/testing-shortages-force-extreme-shift-in-strategy-by-local-health-officials/

    Guess which country will have the virus for the next 10 years?

  329. @Agent76


    Mar 14, 2020 Coronavirus Reveals China’s Darkest Secret | China Uncensored

    And I don't mean the Mr. Bean impersonator who's become a mouthpiece of Chinese Communist Party propaganda in Wuhan. Organ harvesting of prisoners of conscience, mainly Falun Gong practitioners or Uighur Muslims, may be providing lung transplants for coronavirus victims.

    https://youtu.be/0ZgYqrZoXCs

    Replies: @last straw

    Can’t get enough Falun Gong stuff and their clown announcer?

  330. Death range of people aged 0 to 110 is 100% or thereabouts, so yes it’s pretty terminal.

  331. @for-the-record
    @utu

    I would like to know how many of 1,266 were in ICU’s and received the best possible treatment and how many were triaged to not be treated.

    That is an interesting question, no doubt. For me, however, the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.

    Replies: @utu, @reiner Tor

    the principal point that emerges is (confirmation) that the Western world has entered a period of perhaps unprecedented mass hysteria.

    The Western world, South Korea, and China. Including the Zhongnanhai. Maybe they watch too much TV?

  332. Turning from Italy to the US:

    deaths to date — 55

    best estimate of average age — 79

    number of deaths ages 0-40: 0

    number of deaths age 40-50: 1 (with underlying medical condition)

    Interestingly, in contrast to other countries (notably Italy and China) where the deceased are overwhelmingly male, in US it seems females have a slight advantage.

    Nearly half of the deaths (25) are from a single long-term care and nursing facility near Seattle.

  333. @for-the-record
    This is f***ing nuts, excuse my Greek.

    https://cdn2.cmjornal.pt/images/2020-03/img_900x508$2020_03_12_16_17_28_931013.jpg

    "All of the beaches have been closed in the country". At this time of year on the beach I go to I am the only person there.

    Similarly, all outdoor eating spaces -- where the air circulates and acts as a natural disinfectant -- are to be closed, while the indoor spaces (which will now be twice as crowded) remain open.

    Grocery stores are to operate at reduced hours, since more crowding and longer lines will promote health.

    For good measure, I will add that where I live, there is not a confirmed coronavirus case within 500 km.

    Replies: @AP

    I’m not convinced that this is a hoax, but clearly there is a mountain of hysteria and stupidity overlaying the actual events.

  334. @Anonloc
    https://twitter.com/shacindananthan/status/1238259948108353537?s=20

    https://twitter.com/LostTemple7/status/1238379957849444354

    Endia has already closed borders and tested 1,00,000 (1 lakh) ppl.

    2020 nibba!

    Replies: @Just Passing Through

    India has the right strategy, just don’t test that many people and let the Western hysteria blow over, they don’t have many old people anyway and the ones that are there are a burden.

    If Westerners had an ounce of pragmatism and ruthlesness they would let this virus spread to remove the old people who are an economic burden.

    • Replies: @Hempus
    @Just Passing Through

    The Virus does not spread! Only the test spreads!

    The right solution of the whole problem is: Stop the spread od the test!

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  335. @Commentator Mike
    @Hempus

    Your analogy with HIV/AIDS is interesting. Supposing someone is tested positive for covid-19 but has no symptoms and is healthy. When he does get the seasonal flu soon after will they say it was covid-19, and if he subsequently dies of complications will they also put it down as a covid-19 fatality? Surely testing positive for covid-19 doesn't make one immune to the regular flu.

    Replies: @Hempus

    [MORE]

    AIDS: First “they” discovered a new virus, then they looked for a matching disease for it…..found one by the “mysterious” death of gay people in NY and San Francisco.
    If they would have made their tests first in an old people home they could have made the same conclution! Lots of people who ruined themself by drugs or who are shortly before death are tested HIV positive. The virus is actually just a marker and not the cause!
    The media and the big pharma rised the theory that the virus is spreading around and can affect also other groups. Pandemie means big money for the patent holder and the big pharma & vaccination industry / shareholders.

    In fact only the HIV antibody test “spread” all over the world, and not ADIDS!

    After 35 years of success…”they”+ vaccination pope Bill Gates try another coup on humanity.
    This time they already use symptoms as fewer, influenza / flu. Such “disease” exist since centuries worldwide.
    The “new” virus is described as attacking the bronchies and lungs and leads to pneumonia.
    This is an unproved allegation!
    Definitively the test works like a death sentence…Its a very strong negative placebo!!!
    Additionaly to fewer and flu the test creates panic and fear and affects the breathing. Breathlessness is caused by the test and not by a virus!

    All “they” had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which “they” also want to weaken.

    Its obvious that in America especially Trump knows that its a fraud intended also to destroy his reelection. Thats why in America are secret (classified) testing restrictions!
    Naive Iran and Italy do a lot of testing and falling into the trap.
    But they cant stop the spread of the test….this would be political uncorrect and the media would kill them for stop testing.

    So, again we will see a great fight between the plotters & media against Trump with a world wide collateral damage.
    Trump winning again?

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @Hempus

    I broadly agree, but


    All “they” had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which “they” also want to weaken.
     
    Apparently they don't have an antibody test yet for this Covid-19 but one based on genetic sequencing, as mentioned in this link I posted in some other comment earlier:

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236610-coronavirus-how-do-i-get-tested-and-how-does-the-test-work/

    There's some other useful general info here:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/12/coronavirus-reader-questions-answered-symptoms-testing-elderly/5012457002/

    It states that there was one case in China of someone testing positive to both Covid-19 and influenza. Just one out of so many reported cases worldwide? Maybe they don't test suspected cases for both.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Commentator Mike

  336. @Just Passing Through
    @Anonloc

    India has the right strategy, just don't test that many people and let the Western hysteria blow over, they don't have many old people anyway and the ones that are there are a burden.

    If Westerners had an ounce of pragmatism and ruthlesness they would let this virus spread to remove the old people who are an economic burden.

    Replies: @Hempus

    The Virus does not spread! Only the test spreads!

    The right solution of the whole problem is: Stop the spread od the test!

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Hempus

    Need galaxy brain reactions for Unz.

  337. Clearly the “coronavirus causes infertility in men” is the new “no Jews were in the World Trade Center on 11th September 2001”

  338. @Hempus
    @Just Passing Through

    The Virus does not spread! Only the test spreads!

    The right solution of the whole problem is: Stop the spread od the test!

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Need galaxy brain reactions for Unz.

  339. A few points.

    If everyone died exactly one year before his actual death, that would reduce life expectancy by exactly one year. Not the biggest tragedy, but not very good either. Life expectancy rarely drops by a year from one year to the next one.

    In Italy, ICUs are running close to capacity. Yes, getting everyone with a flu checking in to a hospital would clog hospitals (I doubt the number of people accepted in hospitals would change substantially, but at least it would clog administration), but why would it increase the number of people in ICUs?

    The disease is remarkably slow. The epidemic in China started in November, but the first death appeared only on January 11. You don’t count CFR by comparing the number of deaths to the number of people who have contracted it, because it includes those who are still ill (and may yet die). “3,000 cases and 0 deaths” doesn’t mean that the CFR is zero.

    There will be natural experiments. It appears that some countries are either not planning to contain this, incapable of doing so, or both. Even rich countries. We’ll see who does better, no need for heated debates.

    • Replies: @Dieter Kief
    @reiner Tor

    First telling results in - in May? What would you think? Anatoly Karlin said above, that the GB strategy is bad. - When would that show?

    Any thoughts about Slovakia, Poland, - - - Albania (they seem to be quite strict and - successful by now (no idea what that really means for Albania- by now - though).

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    , @Dmitry
    @reiner Tor


    We’ll see who does better,
     
    Spread of this virus is likely determined to a large extent by climate. Therefore, it's not possible to evaulate responses by their results between every country e.g. comparing January in Singapore, with February in Italy - will probably not be very useful. Climate conditions are unfavourable for the virus in Singapore, while favourable in an Italian winter (where temperatures and humidity were with a similar range to Wuhan in January).

    On the other hand, January/February in South Korea and February in Milan, are not such different climates. So it is more possible to judge that the state response in South Korea was better - mainly through much higher surveillance of the early stage of the epidemic.

    From the death rates, it now seems possible that South Korea is perceiving "most of the iceberg", while in Italy they still only perceive the "top of iceberg".

    Replies: @LondonBob

    , @for-the-record
    @reiner Tor

    We’ll see who does better, no need for heated debates.

    The problem is that no one seems to have contemplated what I maintain is the "correct" strategy: isolate those at risk, rather than destroy the economy via seeking to limit all social contact. So the heated debate will continue (at least as long as I avoid being "culled").

    No matter what the results are in May only one thing is certain: politicians will claim "victory", that they have saved millions of lives while their opponents dithered.

    Replies: @Kim, @reiner Tor, @reiner Tor

  340. @Hempus
    @Commentator Mike



    AIDS: First "they" discovered a new virus, then they looked for a matching disease for it.....found one by the "mysterious" death of gay people in NY and San Francisco.
    If they would have made their tests first in an old people home they could have made the same conclution! Lots of people who ruined themself by drugs or who are shortly before death are tested HIV positive. The virus is actually just a marker and not the cause!
    The media and the big pharma rised the theory that the virus is spreading around and can affect also other groups. Pandemie means big money for the patent holder and the big pharma & vaccination industry / shareholders.

    In fact only the HIV antibody test "spread" all over the world, and not ADIDS!

    After 35 years of success..."they"+ vaccination pope Bill Gates try another coup on humanity.
    This time they already use symptoms as fewer, influenza / flu. Such "disease" exist since centuries worldwide.
    The "new" virus is described as attacking the bronchies and lungs and leads to pneumonia.
    This is an unproved allegation!
    Definitively the test works like a death sentence...Its a very strong negative placebo!!!
    Additionaly to fewer and flu the test creates panic and fear and affects the breathing. Breathlessness is caused by the test and not by a virus!

    All "they" had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which "they" also want to weaken.

    Its obvious that in America especially Trump knows that its a fraud intended also to destroy his reelection. Thats why in America are secret (classified) testing restrictions!
    Naive Iran and Italy do a lot of testing and falling into the trap.
    But they cant stop the spread of the test....this would be political uncorrect and the media would kill them for stop testing.

    So, again we will see a great fight between the plotters & media against Trump with a world wide collateral damage.
    Trump winning again?

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    I broadly agree, but

    All “they” had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which “they” also want to weaken.

    Apparently they don’t have an antibody test yet for this Covid-19 but one based on genetic sequencing, as mentioned in this link I posted in some other comment earlier:

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236610-coronavirus-how-do-i-get-tested-and-how-does-the-test-work/

    There’s some other useful general info here:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/12/coronavirus-reader-questions-answered-symptoms-testing-elderly/5012457002/

    It states that there was one case in China of someone testing positive to both Covid-19 and influenza. Just one out of so many reported cases worldwide? Maybe they don’t test suspected cases for both.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Commentator Mike

    A few more points.

    People without symptoms or with mild symptoms only were tested a lot in China, Singapore and South Korea, because they tested all contacts of sick people, regardless of symptoms. That’s how we know that 80% of the cases are mild and that a substantial portion of those infected show no symptoms at all. The Chinese already knew that before the Diamond Princess. So the CFR and the percentage of people needing hospitalization or intensive care cannot be an order of magnitude lower than is currently estimated. (CFR usually depends on hospital care quality.) A way more likely explanation for the discrepancy between the assumed very high number of infections out there with only a few deaths and the estimated ~1-3% CFR is that some of those cases out there will end up dead. It’s known to be a slow killer, so hasty conclusions are not warranted.

    Regarding comparisons to the flu, the very long and slow course of the illness should also be taken into account. Few people lie in bed with the flu for several weeks. Here it’s probably over 10%.

    Regarding symptoms. Some viruses stay in the body for a long time, and often don’t ever disappear. It’s now suspected by some that they are up to no good. It’s rarely a good idea to have yourself infected with another bug, even if it’s really just the flu or a common cold.

    , @Commentator Mike
    @Commentator Mike

    Hempus,

    I forgot to point out that the usatoday article states re COVID-19.:


    testing negative does not necessarily mean that you don't have the virus.
     

    Replies: @Hempus

  341. @reiner Tor
    A few points.

    If everyone died exactly one year before his actual death, that would reduce life expectancy by exactly one year. Not the biggest tragedy, but not very good either. Life expectancy rarely drops by a year from one year to the next one.

    In Italy, ICUs are running close to capacity. Yes, getting everyone with a flu checking in to a hospital would clog hospitals (I doubt the number of people accepted in hospitals would change substantially, but at least it would clog administration), but why would it increase the number of people in ICUs?

    The disease is remarkably slow. The epidemic in China started in November, but the first death appeared only on January 11. You don’t count CFR by comparing the number of deaths to the number of people who have contracted it, because it includes those who are still ill (and may yet die). “3,000 cases and 0 deaths” doesn’t mean that the CFR is zero.

    There will be natural experiments. It appears that some countries are either not planning to contain this, incapable of doing so, or both. Even rich countries. We’ll see who does better, no need for heated debates.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Dmitry, @for-the-record

    First telling results in – in May? What would you think? Anatoly Karlin said above, that the GB strategy is bad. – When would that show?

    Any thoughts about Slovakia, Poland, – – – Albania (they seem to be quite strict and – successful by now (no idea what that really means for Albania- by now – though).

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Dieter Kief

    I don’t think we need to set a fixed date. It’s a very slow killer, and it takes its time. When the dust settles, we’ll be able to see it for ourselves.

  342. @Commentator Mike
    @peterAUS

    Perhaps the growing xenophobia, the hatred, mistrust, and suspicion of foreigners, as a result of this panic doesn't tie in with the goals of the globalists but I think they can work it into their plans. People are now even hating on Italians and those who have recently been to Italy or associated with them. I'm not personally like that but if it helps the cause of the sovereignists I'm not much complaining. And if all the withholding of medical services to the ill and elderly of one's own nation (since they're sending so many medical staff into self-isolation because they were in contact with a suspected coronavirus carrier, telling the ill not to bother turning up at hospitals and clinics as their facilities are stretched, etc.) leads to a lower regard for life, well, maybe those Greek border guards could start using live rounds. Anyway, the Afghanis and Pakistanis who now make up the bulk of the immigrants heading to Europe have all made their way through Iran so even less reason to let them in. And if the coronavirus kills off many of the geriatrics holding office and the old rich bastards, that's not so bad either. Those Aussies living in the outback have nothing to worry about and can watch the developing chaos and panic from a safe distance.

    That Andre Vitchek must be one of the biggest globetrotters on UR as he's always crossing borders and continents, but he hasn't posted an article for a while now. The coronavirus must have inconvenienced his travels so he should update us on how he's coping with this. Perhaps he's in some quarantine somewhere, but surely they have Internet connections to send us some first-hand account of what't it's like in there. I have my doubts that the masses will see through this farce to rise against the growing totalitarianism but he may have other ideas. Yes, interesting times.

    Replies: @peterAUS

    Agree…….

    As for

    …I have my doubts that the masses will see through this farce to rise against the growing totalitarianism but he may have other ideas.

    looking at all this panic around doesn’t look promising.

    That’s the fundamental problem. No amount of intelligence, education and experience/expertise can help if there is no courage.
    The third element in METT-T is……oh my.
    (Un)fortunately, that’s the PRIMARY conclusion I am drawing from this exercise.

    So far, anyway.
    Really hoping to be proved wrong but not holding my breath.

  343. @Commentator Mike
    @Hempus

    I broadly agree, but


    All “they” had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which “they” also want to weaken.
     
    Apparently they don't have an antibody test yet for this Covid-19 but one based on genetic sequencing, as mentioned in this link I posted in some other comment earlier:

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236610-coronavirus-how-do-i-get-tested-and-how-does-the-test-work/

    There's some other useful general info here:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/12/coronavirus-reader-questions-answered-symptoms-testing-elderly/5012457002/

    It states that there was one case in China of someone testing positive to both Covid-19 and influenza. Just one out of so many reported cases worldwide? Maybe they don't test suspected cases for both.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Commentator Mike

    A few more points.

    People without symptoms or with mild symptoms only were tested a lot in China, Singapore and South Korea, because they tested all contacts of sick people, regardless of symptoms. That’s how we know that 80% of the cases are mild and that a substantial portion of those infected show no symptoms at all. The Chinese already knew that before the Diamond Princess. So the CFR and the percentage of people needing hospitalization or intensive care cannot be an order of magnitude lower than is currently estimated. (CFR usually depends on hospital care quality.) A way more likely explanation for the discrepancy between the assumed very high number of infections out there with only a few deaths and the estimated ~1-3% CFR is that some of those cases out there will end up dead. It’s known to be a slow killer, so hasty conclusions are not warranted.

    Regarding comparisons to the flu, the very long and slow course of the illness should also be taken into account. Few people lie in bed with the flu for several weeks. Here it’s probably over 10%.

    Regarding symptoms. Some viruses stay in the body for a long time, and often don’t ever disappear. It’s now suspected by some that they are up to no good. It’s rarely a good idea to have yourself infected with another bug, even if it’s really just the flu or a common cold.

    • Thanks: Commentator Mike
  344. @Commentator Mike
    @Hempus

    I broadly agree, but


    All “they” had to do is to make a patent for the virus and then spreading Rumors of a Wuhan Coronavirus break out from bats and wet markets, or maybe escaped from the nearby bio lab, and carry an antibody test there..and later spread the test to all those countries which “they” also want to weaken.
     
    Apparently they don't have an antibody test yet for this Covid-19 but one based on genetic sequencing, as mentioned in this link I posted in some other comment earlier:

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236610-coronavirus-how-do-i-get-tested-and-how-does-the-test-work/

    There's some other useful general info here:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/12/coronavirus-reader-questions-answered-symptoms-testing-elderly/5012457002/

    It states that there was one case in China of someone testing positive to both Covid-19 and influenza. Just one out of so many reported cases worldwide? Maybe they don't test suspected cases for both.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Commentator Mike

    Hempus,

    I forgot to point out that the usatoday article states re COVID-19.:

    testing negative does not necessarily mean that you don’t have the virus.

    • Replies: @Hempus
    @Commentator Mike

    If you have eaten a chilli and had already the second burning at your A$$ that does not necessarily mean that you still habe the Chilli inside your body...but you had an "Immunity reaction"

    "Tested positive" is regarding to an antibody test made by PCR ( polymerase chain reaction) means: you had already an immunity reaction about an "identified" Virus, what does not mean that you still have the virus, but you have created the antibodies to neutralize that Virus.

    All Baboons are HIV positive ....this means not that they spread this Virus.
    The Virus is harmless if you have the antibodies.
    Thats what a vaccination try to do .....creating the antibodies!

    Just found an interesting article....but its in German language....something which confirmed my theory:
    "Owen Zeng. So wollen die Ärzte untersuchen, ob das Covid-19 eine Lungenfibrose verursacht – eine Veränderung des Lungengewebes, die zu einer Verhärtung und Vernarbung der Lunge führt. Durch die verringerte Dehnbarkeit verringert sich das Lungenvolumen und die Atmung wird behindert".

    By making a CT, DR Zeng realized that many patients witch have been branded as COVID- 19 victims have what is called a lung fibrosis.

    Lung fibrosis is a very long known thing and is not caused by a virus but by bad and degenerated breathing habits or heavy polluted air.
    And imho also by stress, fear & panic caused by a negative placebo like "having a deathly virus in my body".
    Of course lung fibrosis is a big problem but you cant heal it with a vaccination!!!
    As there is also no vaccination against smoking cigarettes!

  345. @Dieter Kief
    @reiner Tor

    First telling results in - in May? What would you think? Anatoly Karlin said above, that the GB strategy is bad. - When would that show?

    Any thoughts about Slovakia, Poland, - - - Albania (they seem to be quite strict and - successful by now (no idea what that really means for Albania- by now - though).

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    I don’t think we need to set a fixed date. It’s a very slow killer, and it takes its time. When the dust settles, we’ll be able to see it for ourselves.

  346. @Matt Forney
    My observation is that Eastern European countries are doing a far better job of managing coronavirus than anyone else in the Western world. Personal observation:

    I'm in Albania right now. The country got its first coronavirus cases a few days ago. Right now, all bars, nightclubs, restaurants have been closed by the government, flights and ships from Italy are banned, anyone who's been to Italy or Greece as of February 27 is required to self-quarantine for two weeks (with police checkpoints set up to enforce and €5,000 fines threatened to those who won't comply), and starting Friday, all private cars will be banned from driving in Tirana through Sunday. Schools are also closed and Albania's Central Bank has deferred loan payments for three months.

    Mind you, Albania only has 22 confirmed cases at this point and one death, but they took decisive action to nip Chinese Cringe AIDS in the bud. Not sure how long the current measures will last (business closures will be "until further notice" and the Tirana curfew may be extended), but Albania will likely be clear of the coronavirus pretty quickly.

    Compare to Greece, where I was last week. They're not doing anything. When I left Athens, everyone was still going out to party and nobody was wearing masks (in Tirana, half of everyone is masked up in public). Upside is that all the Chinese tourists are gone, meaning you can sit upon the Mediterranean sipping a glass of wine without hearing them fart in peoples' faces and hock snot rockets onto the sidewalk.

    Replies: @Dmitry, @Cassandra, @Agathoklis, @Dieter Kief, @Peter Akuleyev

    Albania is not representative of Eastern Europe. I was in Belgrade last week and no one was taking precautions. People still shaking hands, going to bars, etc. One Serb told me his generation had lived through an actual war and bombardments, a virus wasn’t going to scare them.

    They do see have gotten the message as of yesterday, but far later than should have been the case.

  347. @Tor597
    @CanSpeccy

    Are you really that stupid?

    The Anglo way is the most unethical act out of anyone.

    Just let the poor people all die to build up herd immunity while the rich are isolated in their suburbs? The rich will get the best care while poor will be left to die.

    Quit being such an Anglo apologist.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    Are you really that stupid?

    Depends what “that stupid” you are referring to.

    How about you?

    I said the idea of confining infection to those able to survive infection without serious long-term health impairment while protecting the vulnerable, thereby reducing the Reproduction number for the population at large, made sense. Whether the policy is being, or could be, executed effectively I’m not in a position to say.

    Are you?

    Probably not.

    But the way it turns out will be evident quite soon.

  348. @CanSpeccy
    An excellent exposition of the concept of "herd immunity" in this three-minute video.

    The video explains how vaccination works. But as the note below the video explains, "Letting the healthy get it [the virus], while the more vulnerable are kept physically separated from the majority" has the same effect as vaccination in cutting the reproduction number or rate of transmission.

    It's actually a cool idea. Be interesting to see if it works.

    Replies: @Tor597, @Kent Nationalist

    They’ll look pretty silly if a significant proportion of people are infertile/vulnerable to subsequent infections.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Kent Nationalist


    They’ll look pretty silly if a significant proportion of people are infertile/vulnerable to subsequent infections.
     
    In a condition of uncertainty, one has to live with uncertainty and make decisions with uncertain outcomes. That's why great leadership is not as easy as it may seem, and indeed may be largely a matter of luck.
  349. @last straw
    @getaclue

    How about smoking weed? Millions in the U.S. might be doing it.

    Replies: @getaclue

    I always heard that you didn’t damage your lungs badly from weed bc most don’t chainsmoke etc. just a hit or 2 9 (unlike cigs)? Not sure if that is the Medicine….– smoking Weed is stupid for a number of reasons but this might be a new one….

  350. @Commentator Mike
    @Commentator Mike

    Hempus,

    I forgot to point out that the usatoday article states re COVID-19.:


    testing negative does not necessarily mean that you don't have the virus.
     

    Replies: @Hempus

    If you have eaten a chilli and had already the second burning at your A$$ that does not necessarily mean that you still habe the Chilli inside your body…but you had an “Immunity reaction”

    “Tested positive” is regarding to an antibody test made by PCR ( polymerase chain reaction) means: you had already an immunity reaction about an “identified” Virus, what does not mean that you still have the virus, but you have created the antibodies to neutralize that Virus.

    All Baboons are HIV positive ….this means not that they spread this Virus.
    The Virus is harmless if you have the antibodies.
    Thats what a vaccination try to do …..creating the antibodies!

    Just found an interesting article….but its in German language….something which confirmed my theory:
    “Owen Zeng. So wollen die Ärzte untersuchen, ob das Covid-19 eine Lungenfibrose verursacht – eine Veränderung des Lungengewebes, die zu einer Verhärtung und Vernarbung der Lunge führt. Durch die verringerte Dehnbarkeit verringert sich das Lungenvolumen und die Atmung wird behindert”.

    By making a CT, DR Zeng realized that many patients witch have been branded as COVID- 19 victims have what is called a lung fibrosis.

    Lung fibrosis is a very long known thing and is not caused by a virus but by bad and degenerated breathing habits or heavy polluted air.
    And imho also by stress, fear & panic caused by a negative placebo like “having a deathly virus in my body”.
    Of course lung fibrosis is a big problem but you cant heal it with a vaccination!!!
    As there is also no vaccination against smoking cigarettes!

  351. @Philip Owen
    Smoking rates. The worst offenders in 2018. Russia has a problem on the way. Indonesia should worry but maybe it is too far South. The rest are small.

    The ten countries with the highest smoking rates are:

    Kiribati (52.40%)
    Nauru (47.50%)
    Greece (42.65%)
    Serbia (41.65%)
    Russia (40.90%)
    Jordan (40.45%)
    Indonesia (39.90%)
    Bosnia and Herzegovina (38.60%)
    Lebanon (38.30%)
    Chile (38.00%)

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Heavy smoking is becoming less popular every year in Russia, and this 41% you cite surely includes people who only smoke lightly or socially. (In which case, effect on lungs is not so severe).

    I worry more (aside from the climate conditions) about effects of the terrible air pollution in many Russian cities.

    Correlation is not indicator of causation, but at best just something to investigate – there has been a correlation in Italy between air pollution regions (as pm 2,5) and where the community spread and deaths of the virus are highest.

    If the EU tried to use its weak equipment measure air pollution in certain cities in Russia, the strong chemicals in the air would probably melt their equipment, of course.

    Here is also EU data for pm10.

    Italy is very high for deaths from air pollution, and this will be more extreme on a regional basis, as air pollution is concentrated in Lombardy, Emilia-Romana, etc.

  352. Here is today’s best idea how to stop the epidemic: just travel back in time to 1951 and preemptively nuke China.
    If anything, this is hot and creative take 😉

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh, AP
    • Replies: @AP
    @another anon

    Would have saved tens of millions of Chinese too...

  353. @reiner Tor
    A few points.

    If everyone died exactly one year before his actual death, that would reduce life expectancy by exactly one year. Not the biggest tragedy, but not very good either. Life expectancy rarely drops by a year from one year to the next one.

    In Italy, ICUs are running close to capacity. Yes, getting everyone with a flu checking in to a hospital would clog hospitals (I doubt the number of people accepted in hospitals would change substantially, but at least it would clog administration), but why would it increase the number of people in ICUs?

    The disease is remarkably slow. The epidemic in China started in November, but the first death appeared only on January 11. You don’t count CFR by comparing the number of deaths to the number of people who have contracted it, because it includes those who are still ill (and may yet die). “3,000 cases and 0 deaths” doesn’t mean that the CFR is zero.

    There will be natural experiments. It appears that some countries are either not planning to contain this, incapable of doing so, or both. Even rich countries. We’ll see who does better, no need for heated debates.

    Replies: @Dieter Kief, @Dmitry, @for-the-record

    We’ll see who does better,

    Spread of this virus is likely determined to a large extent by climate. Therefore, it’s not possible to evaulate responses by their results between every country e.g. comparing January in Singapore, with February in Italy – will probably not be very useful. Climate conditions are unfavourable for the virus in Singapore, while favourable in an Italian winter (where temperatures and humidity were with a similar range to Wuhan in January).

    On the other hand, January/February in South Korea and February in Milan, are not such different climates. So it is more possible to judge that the state response in South Korea was better – mainly through much higher surveillance of the early stage of the epidemic.

    From the death rates, it now seems possible that South Korea is perceiving “most of the iceberg”, while in Italy they still only perceive the “top of iceberg”.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Dmitry

    Qom has the same climate .

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

    A HK friend who has a friend involved in medicine says they also think smoking and pollution had an impact in Wuhan, not really surprising as it compromises your respiratory immune system, nor is that there will be a seasonal element to this flu.

  354. @yakushimaru
    @prime noticer

    Even the healthcare mask manufactures are not eager to jump because they worry that the demand is a onetime thing and they will be stuck with the assembly line etc. two months from now. In China, the government has to provide assurance.

    Replies: @utu, @Philip Owen, @prime noticer

    Yes. i can confirm that from direct experience.

  355. The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave. There were no vaccines then. The 2nd wave virus was more virulent than the 1st. It had brewed itself mutations and recombinatons in the bodies of young soldiers at the front. Hence its ability to target the young. St Louis which quarantined had fewer deaths in the first round than Philadelphia. Didn’t help St Louis for the 2nd wave.

    We have a front line. In Syria, next to Iran. Worse things are happening in the beseiged villages and refugee camps for Covid-19 to be noticed much. In China, viruses often mixed in pigs. The mixer in the Middle East for MERS was a camel. Syria is the perfect place for Covid-19 to meet a camel. MERS is far more deadly.

    If you don’t get Covid-19 now, it will be far worse next Autumn (Fall). The UK strategy of encouraging early infection is the only way to reduce the ipct of this. It won’t be all that effective but there isn’t anything better.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Philip Owen


    The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave.
     
    Seems like it. Let the thing spread, mainly infecting the most socially active, i.e., the spreaders.

    Then, following this first wave, when those who were the most active spreaders have acquired immunity, the reproduction number will be greatly reduced. At this point impose quarantines and social distancing measures and R0 will fall further, hopefully below 1, causing the epidemic to die out.

    Presumably there are mathematical models behind this strategy, which in a year or two, we will likely be able to read about in the learned journals. We will then know how smart the current UK plan is, or is not.

    Authorities in Wuhan have been criticized for not acting on the outbreak early enough. But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @yakushimaru

    , @anonymous coward
    @Philip Owen

    Your pseudo-scientific evolutionary explanation is wrong.

    From the natural selection point of view, a virus wants to be as mild and ineffective as possible, it doesn't want to kill its host.

    (Then again, Darwinian evolution itself is self-contradictory bunk, so I don't blame you in using a wrong theory in the wrong way.)

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Philip Owen

    Serious question: do you think that the CA governor was wrong, then, to order all bars/wineries/brewpubs closed and limit restaurants to 50% capacity for distancing?

    He also directed people 65 and older to stay home. Don’t know how much the State can or will try to enforce that, but that’s the order, anyway.

    As an aside about our brat elites, my boss was coughing and hacking in the workplace last week AND is elderly, yet refuses to abide by the directive to go home. Several of staff now have cold or flu-like symptoms. Won’t ever know for sure whether the boss caused that but it’s not a bad guess.

    Replies: @LondonBob

  356. @another anon
    Here is today's best idea how to stop the epidemic: just travel back in time to 1951 and preemptively nuke China.
    If anything, this is hot and creative take ;-)

    https://twitter.com/KevinCastley/status/1238589379867586560

    Replies: @AP

    Would have saved tens of millions of Chinese too…

  357. @Kent Nationalist
    @CanSpeccy

    They'll look pretty silly if a significant proportion of people are infertile/vulnerable to subsequent infections.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    They’ll look pretty silly if a significant proportion of people are infertile/vulnerable to subsequent infections.

    In a condition of uncertainty, one has to live with uncertainty and make decisions with uncertain outcomes. That’s why great leadership is not as easy as it may seem, and indeed may be largely a matter of luck.

  358. @Philip Owen
    The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave. There were no vaccines then. The 2nd wave virus was more virulent than the 1st. It had brewed itself mutations and recombinatons in the bodies of young soldiers at the front. Hence its ability to target the young. St Louis which quarantined had fewer deaths in the first round than Philadelphia. Didn't help St Louis for the 2nd wave.

    We have a front line. In Syria, next to Iran. Worse things are happening in the beseiged villages and refugee camps for Covid-19 to be noticed much. In China, viruses often mixed in pigs. The mixer in the Middle East for MERS was a camel. Syria is the perfect place for Covid-19 to meet a camel. MERS is far more deadly.

    If you don't get Covid-19 now, it will be far worse next Autumn (Fall). The UK strategy of encouraging early infection is the only way to reduce the ipct of this. It won't be all that effective but there isn't anything better.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @anonymous coward, @RadicalCenter

    The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave.

    Seems like it. Let the thing spread, mainly infecting the most socially active, i.e., the spreaders.

    Then, following this first wave, when those who were the most active spreaders have acquired immunity, the reproduction number will be greatly reduced. At this point impose quarantines and social distancing measures and R0 will fall further, hopefully below 1, causing the epidemic to die out.

    Presumably there are mathematical models behind this strategy, which in a year or two, we will likely be able to read about in the learned journals. We will then know how smart the current UK plan is, or is not.

    Authorities in Wuhan have been criticized for not acting on the outbreak early enough. But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @CanSpeccy

    Re the UK's strategy to bring down R_nought.

    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Spanky

    , @yakushimaru
    @CanSpeccy


    But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.
     
    Many horrible and sad stories.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

  359. There is a serious error in the article above (I dont know whether anybody has mentioned it already):

    The reported mortality rate is in proportion to reported cases. The 70% number bandied around means all cases. Considering that most cases are asymptomatic or mild (80% according to a Chinese Study), the number of unreported cases can be quite high. The actual mortality rate will be accordingly lower. How much lower, I dont know.

    Also, regarding the analysis by the Chinese scientist: Does it make sense to compare infection cases of countries with different populations? I dont know, maybe per capita (reported) infections would make the time series for the different countries more comparable. Would it change the conclusion much?

  360. @CanSpeccy
    @Philip Owen


    The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave.
     
    Seems like it. Let the thing spread, mainly infecting the most socially active, i.e., the spreaders.

    Then, following this first wave, when those who were the most active spreaders have acquired immunity, the reproduction number will be greatly reduced. At this point impose quarantines and social distancing measures and R0 will fall further, hopefully below 1, causing the epidemic to die out.

    Presumably there are mathematical models behind this strategy, which in a year or two, we will likely be able to read about in the learned journals. We will then know how smart the current UK plan is, or is not.

    Authorities in Wuhan have been criticized for not acting on the outbreak early enough. But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @yakushimaru

    Re the UK’s strategy to bring down R_nought.

    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @CanSpeccy


    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

     

    You've managed to out-Mao Communist China, at least as of 2020.

    Well done.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    , @Spanky
    @CanSpeccy

    Utilitarianism also posits that the ends justify the means...

    Perhaps the UK is looking for a twofer here -- develop herd immunity and resolve a looming pension crisis. Wonder which is their primary primary goal and which is running PR interference.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

  361. @Astuteobservor II
    @Just Passing Through

    Gotta ask, why in the bloody hell do anons still think PR matters? If the Chinese confirms this as a bioweapons attack, get ready for a counter attack of the same.

    What goes through that head of yours? Omfg, we are about to kill them the same way, let's hope they care? Think China would gives a flying damn what the retarded public of the west thinks at that point?

    Think harder. If you could.

    Replies: @MikePToo

    It would be interesting to know how many, if any, of the US military personnel who were “coincidentally” in China at precisely the opportune time, are infected.
    After all, the US government is neither averse to nor hesitant about using its own population as guinea pigs or cannon fodder.

  362. @CanSpeccy
    @Philip Owen


    The UK strategy is best because the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu was the big killer. Fewer people would have died if there had been more infected in the 1st wave.
     
    Seems like it. Let the thing spread, mainly infecting the most socially active, i.e., the spreaders.

    Then, following this first wave, when those who were the most active spreaders have acquired immunity, the reproduction number will be greatly reduced. At this point impose quarantines and social distancing measures and R0 will fall further, hopefully below 1, causing the epidemic to die out.

    Presumably there are mathematical models behind this strategy, which in a year or two, we will likely be able to read about in the learned journals. We will then know how smart the current UK plan is, or is not.

    Authorities in Wuhan have been criticized for not acting on the outbreak early enough. But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy, @yakushimaru

    But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.

    Many horrible and sad stories.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @yakushimaru


    Many horrible and sad stories.
     
    Would an alternative strategy have resulted in fewer horrible and sad stories?
  363. @CanSpeccy
    @CanSpeccy

    Re the UK's strategy to bring down R_nought.

    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Spanky

    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

    You’ve managed to out-Mao Communist China, at least as of 2020.

    Well done.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Daniel Chieh


    You’ve managed to out-Mao Communist China, at least as of 2020.
     
    Don't jumt to conclusions. I said the UK strategy was consistent with the utilitarian principle. I didn't say that I am a utilitarian. Far from it.
  364. Taiwan has only 50 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.

    Swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak, but it won’t prevent a future outbreak, since the population remains devoid of immunity. If COVID19 and its evolutionary descendants remain in circulation for years, Taiwan may experience repeated outbreaks and be thus compelled to engage repeatedly in radical and economically disruptive action to prevent a widespread outbreak.

    If an effective vaccine appears soon, then the Taiwan strategy may be the best, as the vaccine will compensate for the absence of immunity acquired through infection. However, even that may depend on national circumstances. For Taiwan, the Taiwan strategy may not cost much in, say, lost tourism revenue, whereas in the UK, for example, or Switzerland, it would crush a major industry.

    • Replies: @AP
    @CanSpeccy

    They are guessing a vaccine in about a year from when this appeared (so in December 2020 or a few months later). Taiwan would do well to hold on until then.

    Replies: @LondonBob, @Philip Owen, @Paul.Martin

  365. @Daniel Chieh
    @CanSpeccy


    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

     

    You've managed to out-Mao Communist China, at least as of 2020.

    Well done.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    You’ve managed to out-Mao Communist China, at least as of 2020.

    Don’t jumt to conclusions. I said the UK strategy was consistent with the utilitarian principle. I didn’t say that I am a utilitarian. Far from it.

  366. @yakushimaru
    @CanSpeccy


    But perhaps they were pursuing a similar strategy.
     
    Many horrible and sad stories.

    Replies: @CanSpeccy

    Many horrible and sad stories.

    Would an alternative strategy have resulted in fewer horrible and sad stories?

  367. @yakushimaru
    @prime noticer

    Even the healthcare mask manufactures are not eager to jump because they worry that the demand is a onetime thing and they will be stuck with the assembly line etc. two months from now. In China, the government has to provide assurance.

    Replies: @utu, @Philip Owen, @prime noticer

    the CNN death rate did not go up today, despite them being DESPERATE for as many Americans to die from this thing as possible. you know for sure they are hunting high and low for dead old boomers the way they hunt every day for africans getting killed by the police.

    and the CEOs who manufacture medical stuff are still not in a hurry to mass produce equipment that they might not even be able to sell in 1 month. so the smart people with billion dollar companies on the line are watching closely and are not anywhere close to hitting the panic button like unpaid internet posters have been.

    we will check back in a few days. something tells me the death rate in the US will be way below the hysteria.

    • Disagree: GazaPlanet
  368. At the end you mention the United Kingdom which tends to obviate your argument for general control. It would seem that the most effort should be put into programs for those most at risk especially if countries like the UK make actual suppression impossible or only a short term palliative. If Covid-19 does become an endemic virus it is important to ask if catching it will for many people be just like the flu. If it is then the greater infectiousness may be less of a problem for those people.

    Moreover, you have not discussed the changes in immunity in future years from fighting off this virus or the adaptation of the virus to human hosts. What is the merit of the UK’s long term goal of herd immunity? Will it become less virulent? There is also the likelihood of better medical procedures in the future.

    It seems that most analysis of the impact of the virus assumes equal effective risk in its proposals for containment even as it is acknowledged the elderly and the frail, as usual, are at greater risk. It would seem the real dividing line is between those for whom it is “just like the flu” and those for whom it is something more.

    Why is that so? Shouldn’t the greater effort be put where the greater risks are found? Please comment.

  369. @CanSpeccy
    @CanSpeccy

    Re the UK's strategy to bring down R_nought.

    Naturally, authorities will be disinclined to acknowledge the essence of this strategy in the clearest terms since it means sacrificing some pour sauver les autres. It is, however, an approach fully consistent with the utilitarian principle of seeking the greatest good of the greatest number.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Spanky

    Utilitarianism also posits that the ends justify the means…

    Perhaps the UK is looking for a twofer here — develop herd immunity and resolve a looming pension crisis. Wonder which is their primary primary goal and which is running PR interference.

    • Replies: @CanSpeccy
    @Spanky


    Perhaps the UK is looking for a twofer here — develop herd immunity and resolve a looming pension crisis.
     
    The UK has 12 million of pensionable-age, so to greatly impact the cost of their maintenance, they will need a veritable holocaust. My bet is that the COVID19 mortality in the UK will be under 10,000, an insignificant number in relation to pension costs.

    Replies: @yakushimaru

  370. @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Spanky

    Now up another 1000 points. This all happened right after Trump had the news conference yesterday. Hahahaha......

    Another Unz genius, bites the dust.

    Replies: @Spanky

    Yep, throw enough money at bankers and happy headlines at their algos and the market goes up. Who’d a thunk it…

    Thanks for making my point.

  371. @Gleimhart Mantooso
    @Spanky

    You're so Unz-woke!

    Replies: @Spanky

    I see you don’t let things like facts get in the way of your thoughts…

  372. @Alfred
    I keep on repeating this. But few people seem to grasp the message. I guess people are less capable of thinking long-term than used to be the case.

    Forget about vaccines. It will take years to develop one for this strain of coronavirus. By then, it would have morphed into something else. In fact, those who have been immunised may be in mortal danger as is the case with dengue fever.

    The only approach that will work is a more accurate, faster, cheaper test. Combine such a test with triage of the population and this thing will disappear in protected countries/localities.

    I proposed a similar concept - with anonymous data - as a solution for the AIDS/HIV problem many years ago. I got a US patent for it and it was approved by the FDA.

    If taking temperatures were a fool-proof way of detecting coronavirus, this thing would have been controlled in weeks.

    Everything else is just a waste of time.

    https://www.chinadailyhk.com/attachments/image/142/147/187/518904_215951/518904_215951_800_532_jpg.jpg

    Replies: @eugyppius, @streamfortyseven

    Treatments have been found and are being used in China and South Korea. In China, they’re usin