This is actually fine.
It seems like almost all, or all, of the major “superspreader” events have occurred indoors. E.g., in South Korea, the first and second waves were launched through a cult’s churches and gay bars, respectively.
A month ago, a Chinese study reported that in 318 analyzed outbreaks in China, just two out of 318 occurred outdoors:
Qian, Hua, Te Miao, L. I. U. Li, Xiaohong Zheng, Danting Luo, and Yuguo Li. 2020. “Indoor Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.” medRxiv, April, 2020.04.04.20053058.
Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.
Two conclusions would seem to follow from this:
- We can take it easy outdoors – don’t arrest the people at the parks and beaches.
- Centralized quarantine!
This study has, more recently, been supplemented by a second one that seems to confirm its conclusions:
Leclerc, Quentin J., Naomi M. Fuller, Lisa E. Knight, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Sebastian Funk, and Gwenan M. Knight. 2020. “What Settings Have Been Linked to SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Clusters?” Wellcome Open Research 5 (May): 83.
We found many examples of SARS-CoV-2 clusters linked to a wide range of mostly indoor settings. Few reports came from schools, many from households, and an increasing number were reported in hospitals and elderly care settings across Europe.
Spreadsheet with all the data here.
According to my tally, 95% of total cases accrued indoors, with the rest split between “outdoors” and “indoor/outdoor” category.
I have argued against arresting people at the parks and beaches because our “quarantine capital” (amount of stress people in democratic polities are prepared to put up with) is limited. It is becoming ever clearer that it is better expended elsewhere.
As the summer draws near, it is time to usher in a new age… of sun and steel!
- Children enjoy the outdoors anyway – move school classes outside.
- Order restaurants to serve food on the streets outside.
- Outdoor food markets and bazaars instead of supermarkets and box stores.
- Gyms need to “return to tradition”.
- Not much of an issue for most office businesses, as most can remain work from home.
- Otherwise, universal masking in places that can’t be feasibly moved outside, such as factories.
I don’t even know why the right-wingers are so obsessed with Corona conspiracies, this is their single best chance to push for national BAPism for at least a generation.