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CMP Update: World's Top 10 Militaries of 2021
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In 2015, I attempted to quantify the military power of the world’s states with an index of Comprehensive Military Power. You can read the post, including the detailed methodology, here.

Since then, its conclusions – broadly speaking, that China and Russia had about a third of US military power in the mid-2010s, while the next-tier Powers had a third of Russia/China’s military power in turn – has been replicated in a couple of other indices:

… and was to correctly predict the outcome of Karabakh War II.

Nonetheless, five years is a significant period of time in world geopolitics, especially as concerns rapidly modernizing China, so an update is warranted (note there have been a few minor methodological changes*).

***

Top Military Powers of 2020

Performance of the US, Russia/USSR, China, and India in terms of total CMP from 1940-2020.

This table contains the CMP of the world’s states where the US is normalized to 100 every single year.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1 United States 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
2 China 16.6 21.2 24.0 28.4 29.9 42.3 57.1
3 Russia/USSR 109.8 39.0 33.4 29.3 24.9 27.9 32.8
4 India 3.5 6.0 9.3 11.5 12.6 18.0 23.8
5 France 11.5 12.1 12.4 10.7 8.8 8.9 10.1
6 South Korea 3.9 4.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.1 9.4
7 Germany 14.3 12.9 12.3 10.8 8.5 8.1 9.2
8 Saudi Arabia 6.0 7.4 8.9 7.7 7.5 9.0 9.0
9 United Kingdom 11.7 11.8 11.0 10.0 8.5 8.2 8.8
10 Japan 4.7 5.5 7.1 7.0 6.4 7.0 7.7
11 Turkey 3.4 4.8 6.0 4.9 3.9 4.6 7.6
12 Iran 2.4 3.9 4.7 5.3 4.8 5.2 5.7
13 Brazil 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.5 3.8 4.2 5.3
14 Italy 5.0 5.9 6.7 6.0 4.7 4.6 5.1
15 Pakistan 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.6 4.8
16 Israel 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.4 4.5 4.5 4.7
17 Ukraine 4.5 4.6 3.8 2.6 3.0 4.0
18 Poland 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.9 4.0
19 Taiwan 2.2 3.4 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.8
20 Canada 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.4
21 Australia 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.3
22 Spain 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.7 3.3
23 Vietnam 3.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.9
24 Indonesia 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.8
25 Colombia 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.7
26 North Korea 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.5
27 Singapore 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4
28 Thailand 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2
29 UAE 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.2
30 Netherlands 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.6 2.0

The most notable change, obviously, has been China’s rapid gain on the US (though it not been more impressive than its economic gain – cognizant of the perceived rule of military overspending on the Soviet collapse, it has soft peddled this aspect of its convergence). Russia has paddled water relative to the US. India’s growth has been very impressive, albeit from a low base. Nor should the striking divergence between South Korea and North Korea since 1990 surprise anyone. India has left Pakistan in the dust.

Here is a visualization of the CMP in which, as in the table, the US is fixed at 100.:

American remilitarization during the Korean War knocked the USSR back down – though in fairness, the Soviet advantage then was deceiving, since the US had hundreds by the late 1940s and thousands by the early 1950s, so in practice, it was vastly more powerful. But the 1970-80s Soviet military buildup brought it to parity. Then it collapsed and China overtook it sometime during the late 2000s.

This chart is perhaps especially useful in that it shows what a determined military buildup can achieve. The USSR, with half or less of US economic power, built up a military machine that went from 70% of its CMP in 1970 to parity by 1980. China is now at 57%, but it has a bigger GDP (PPP) than the US (it produces its own weapons, so yes, GDP (PPP) is what counts here), a much faster rate of growth, and on top of that its military spending is around 1.9% or almost twice less than the US at 3.4%, i.e. much more room for more catch-up spending (should it choose to pursue that path) that was feasible for the USSR. Even under “business as usual” (5% points higher growth in military spending annually, in line with growth), Chinese CMP should exceed the US by the mid-2030s. However, raising that to a 10% point advantage could allow it to excess the US as early as 2030 (and it would still spend less on the military as a share of GDP than the US by then).

The China + Russia counter dates to 2001, when the SCO was founded. This has become more relevant over time as the two have drifted closer, with increasing talk of an alliance. Combined Sino-Russian military power is now entirely comparable to American, at 90% in 2020 vs. 70% in 2015 and 55% in 2010. The recent effective entrance of Iran into the Sinosphere adds a further 5% of US CMP to this bloc and raises its total to effective parity with the US as of this year.

It is also instructive to look at the Great Powers’ share of world military power. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has accounted for a steady 30% of world CMP. However, the rise of China as well as stronger regional militaries has now knocked down that share to 25%.

Nonetheless, we see that NATO brings its share up to 41.5%, still far ahead of the Sino-Russian bloc, let alone either China or Russia separately. This hints at the great multipliers the US gains from its system of alliances (if they can be successfully coaxed in should a conflict develop into World War III). Tacking on Japan (1.9%), South Korea (2.4%), Taiwan (1.0%), and Australia and Canada (0.8% each) increases the Western bloc’s share of military power to almost half the world’s total – most likely fully half adding in various minor satraps. And in the event that India could be brought on board too, that’s another 6.0% of the world’s military power. This is why we can expect to see an intensification of US efforts to swing India into its camp.

The US has a rapidly narrowing window in which to win a conventional war against China. Probably. There’s a substantial margin of error either way in these CMP estimates, plus other factors (e.g. China will be able to concentrate a greater proportion of its CMP in a war theater than the US, whose military infrastructure is spread thin across the entire globe). However, the US can maintain parity by leveraging its systems of alliances – assuming they can do this in lockstep with Chinese military catchup. This is partly the logic of the Great Bifurcation. The point is not just to block off the emerging Chinese hegemon from economically dominating the entire world, but to intensify military/ideological ties within the Western Alliance to maintain military parity.

On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed. Almost as if geopolitics is like some kind of chemical soup, subject to natural laws, with all else (e.g. “Uyghur genocide”, “WuFlu”, etc.) being naught but sound and fury, signifying nothing.

 

***

Methodological changes.

Biggest change is that I decided to narrow the technological gap between the world’s Powers on the assumption that globalization has made them much less germane than during the Cold War (e.g. ball bearings for missiles that could only be manufactured in a few facilities a generation ago can now be ordered off Ali Baba). For a concrete example, see Iran’s Missile Attacks May Have Been Mini-Sputnik Moment. As such, I have converged all rich, high IQ countries, NATO members, Russia, China, and India to the first technological rank (no gaps – assume they have the gross human capital to largely get whatever they need), and have narrowed their gap with the rest to just 5 years.

I think adding a +25% bonus to Germany’s combat effectiveness based off WW1/WW2 performance is increasingly untenable. There was always a major element of arbitrariness to this enterprise, and there are many cultural factors that will be hard to capture (e.g. “Woke Mil” – the SJWization of Western militaries). In later editions of the CMP, I plan to do away with “cultural factors” (“south”, “clannish”, “feats”) in general, and replace them with IQ scores from Lynn & Vanhanen or David Becker. They are not perfect either – in particular, they would not capture the meritocratic element, which has also been fast declining in the US military based on Marine officer test scores – but they are however the most objective and universal measures we realistically have. Ultimately, virtually all aspects of success leverage around average IQ, and correlations become much better still when groups are considered, such as work groups, nations, or – presumably – military organizations.

Speaking of plans, I eventually hope to make a separate website for the CMP (along the lines of Global Firepower) and make it an open data and interactive experience. Hopefully I can do that before another big update becomes necessary, i.e. sometime between now and 2026. But that obviously requires quite a bit of work and I don’t want to spend too much time on that right now (I need to finish GB for a start).

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

    Twitter thread:

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @IronForge
    , @Blinky Bill
  2. Tor597 says:

    Always love these posts Anatoly. Good job.

    1) I think China has the advantage in building its military specifically to counter the US in its own back yard. Hence China’s push towards carrier killer missiles, long range air to air missles, and the J-20 to take out refueling tankers and AWACS.

    America is building more of a generalized military.

    2) I’m skeptical of America’s 5th generation fighters. F22’s are no longer in production and they will either wear out or their parts will wear out which will be harder to find.

    The F35 looks to be a flying brick.

    I think China will have 5th Generation fighters that actually work.

    3) In time of war China will be united, but America? America will probably collapse in Civil War in 10 years anyways.

    • Agree: Alfred, Reaper
    • Troll: JohnPlywood
  3. Tor597 says:

    Also, I don’t think America could get East Asian countries to join up against China/Russia/Iran.

    The attacks on Asians in America is getting a lot of coverage throughout all of Asia.

    I think you’ll see Asia as a while turn away from the west, and once America’s economy crashes that will be even more the case.

  4. @Tor597

    (1) Yes. CMP assumes that countries allocate their military spending in a way that maximizes their military effectiveness under their specific conditions and constraints.

    (2) Yes. Part of the reason I decided to drastically revisit technology assumptions.

    (3) I think there’ll be unity during wartime. Chapo types will be repressed, this website will be shut down, etc. Though yes, a military defeat could lead to a US civil war. OTOH, civil wars can also have surprising consequences. The world’s strongest army in 1865 was the Union Army.

  5. Hi A. Karlin, when are you going to post your Great Bifurcation article???

  6. Congratulations Anatoly on this update to your excellent CMP series!

    The proposal to create an interactive CMP website with an open database is a good and bold one. It will probably require the work of many people.

  7. Morale and national survival is more illuminating than IQ etc. If you believe in the rightness of a cause then you’ll volunteer rather than be drafted, and you’ll shoot to kill rather than shoot to miss.

  8. I suspect Russia or China, alone, could win a short, conventional war, in which both sides were afraid of it going nuclear, against the USA in the likely theaters (Taiwan, the Ukraine, Baltics).

    We know from Syria that Russian forces these days are highly professional, lean/mean and so on. We know from youtube that plenty of Russian young men still love danger. We can’t really be sure how good Chinese soldiers are, but probably the Chinese are way, way more willing to take casualties than US personnel, if nothing else.

    It’s no secret that the various branches of the US military have been totally hollowed out by woke-ism, and the integration of prostitutes into the units (aka women in the military). Even if this weren’t the case, the ugliness of US society, and the fact that the USA isn’t actually threatened by anyone, undermines motivation to fight. Even if the USA has better weapons (who knows), who is going to die for the gay empire? I say the moment these sailors/soldiers realize they are goin’ toe-to-toe with the Russians/Chinese, they mutiny, or lose their sh*t. I simply can’t imagine US forces dealing with a real war, with real casualties from a sophisticated power. Russia and China only have to bloody the bully’s nose and he’ll back down.

  9. @Tor597

    Agree, the Japanese/Koreans/Filipinos/Viets have to live next to China until the apocalypse, they will really try to avoid being dragged into a war. This is especially true as the USA is so obviously in decline.

    • Replies: @Badger Down
  10. SafeNow says:

    “…IQ scores from Lynn & Vanhanen or David Becker. They are not perfect either – in particular, they would not capture the meritocratic element, which has also been fast declining in the US military based on Marine officer test scores – but they are however the most objective and universal measures we realistically have.”

    Okay, sounds reasonable. But maybe an effectiveness-reduction should be assessed when there are egregious lack-of-proficiency events, such as destroyers colliding with slow-moving merchant ships. Some wag likened this to a Chevy Corvette being struck by a bulldozer on the Bonneville Salt Flats while an entire team of trained personnel was helping the Corvette to avoid the bulldozer,

  11. 22pp22 says:

    Wasn’t Grenada the last time the USA comprehensively won a war? Kuwait would have been a victory if they had known when to stop.

    • Replies: @Rich
    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
  12. India is 40% of Rus in Land/Air.

    Meme video but the charts are good, main takeaways:

    India is mostly light, motorized infantry v Russia’s mech
    India has almost no Para forces
    India has almost no SPG & a dearth of MLRS

    Indian Mil structure is basically NOK, fuck tons of Light Infantry & Para-Military; little else.

    I do think cultural or other elements are necessary but capped at +/- 5 or 10%.
    Some factors:

    1. Recent history of conflict maybe a +5% if major conventional war in last 5 years, 2.5% for coin
    Decaying by 0.5% a year after that?

    2. Cultural/Political factors:
    Wokeism v Imperial history ie Dutch/UK think Empire was good.
    Ahimsa v Imperial Ideology
    Diversity: Is there a “second majority” ie 15%+ with political representation
    Recent Economic Growth: Would be indictive of moreale
    Recent Political History: Same as above

    War Experience capped at 5% & any of those 5 cultural factors capped at 5%.
    Easier to just focus on giving bonuses instead of negatives, and focus on top 10-15 if not 20 powers.

    I think a blend of IQ with average height of young men at a 75-25 or 65-35 ratio would be fair.

  13. @Anatoly Karlin

    Yeah, anyone who suspects the US military will be divided fails to understand the logic of people joining a national army. The Imperial Russian Army was full of Polish and Finnish officers. It took a full-scale Imperial collapse and a radically dangerous, antagonistic, and alien government (the Menshevik\Boksheviks) for Mannerheim and his Polish and Baltic Equivalents to switch to localist Nationalism. America’s government and military elites are united, have been since Smedley Butler, and even the most secretly “National Populist” General is going to be a Stalinist-era type who keeps his head down and quietly does military things.

    For years, when some hipster-types spoke of “Cascadia” as a separatist movement (rather than a redrawing of state boundaries) I always pointed out the fact the local military bases would never allow a secession. This goes the same for any idealized Midwestern Secession. Simply, the people in the army serve the people who give orders. They’ll shoot coal miners, they’ll shoot hippies, and they’ll shoot modern deplorables and antifa if they went off script enough. The Confederacy only happened because States were genuinely…well, entities at the time, and if modern Americans had the gall for an open civil war we would have done it already. I do love my people, but I see also they aren’t quite my people anymore, nor have they been since the 1880s.

    All of this just means, of course, any “competing” (independent) power’s best bet remains to be economically productive enough it could survive America’s eventual economically-induced retraction (not collapse), and militarily powerful enough the Powers That Guide Us decide running their own fiefdom is an acceptable alternative. God save us from this mad mundanity. Russia, China and Iran will be an entertaining substitute, though for their sake I wish them peace and prosperity.

    • Agree: Thorfinnsson, Wency
    • Thanks: Old Prude
    • Replies: @Wency
    , @profnasty
    , @Ray Caruso
  14. @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Wishful thinking. This war is going to be fought with unconventional electronic weapons, drones, and special forces.

    • Agree: Rdm
    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Realist
    , @Truth
    , @Old Prude
  15. SafeNow says:

    Any analysis should include China’s upgrading of its Coast Guard. My opinion is that they are creating a “presence” without risking war. These carry increased armament, and have been placed under military control, but still, are not warships The worst-case scenario is an exchange of small-arms fire. More likely, they are playing at bumper-boats. The new cutters possess gigantic size for ramming, and flat sides for shouldering. The USCG has increased its deployment to the W. Pacific; and just finished joint exercises with the Japanese CG. The use of CGs lets off steam without risking transforming the world into a nuclear ash pile.

    • Replies: @Badger Down
  16. Znzn says:

    This seems to be too pessimistic about Russian vs. Chinese military power, the navy is not going to be that relevant in a conflict between Russia and China, neither China’s nor Russia’s best units are located in the Russian Far East, with most of them located elsewhere, and Russia has nukes and a lot of strategic bombers that can threaten Northern China, and the Amur is quite wide and difficult to cross if the bridges are down, compared to the Meuse. Plus Russia has dug in defensive positions at the border and already lots of plans to deal with a Chinese invasion of the Russian Far East back from Soviet days.

  17. Znzn says:

    What would the CMP have looked like between Germany and France in 1940? BTW, why is everyone not talking about the very well equipped JASDF and JMSDF here, they have the 2nd largest navy in the Far East, and SJWs are not a problem for them. Also do not count on Korea to ally with China, SJWs are also not a problem for the ROKAF and RKN.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  18. Znzn says:

    Also SJWs are not a problem for the Indian military, people here just tend to talk about the US and China going it alone. What would a China vs
    Japan, Taiwan, US, and possibly India conflict look like?

  19. @Znzn

    It would be one fraught with massive coordination issues with so many combatants. We’ll see that if there is a NATO-like organization in Asia but I’m skeptical.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, sher singh
  20. Znzn says:

    I mean Japan and the US already have a MDT which covers the Senkakus.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  21. What explains the Ukraine’s collapse from in 3.8 in 2005 to 2.6 in 2010? Was the “Orange revolution” that bad?

    India is a huge, but disfunctional third-world country, with no domestic arms production. Its rapid ascent in the ranking is therefore baffling, and shows the limits of Karlin’s methodology. Personally, I would place India below Iran, whose power-projection capabilities are considerable.

    Saudi Arabia is a military non-entity with some overpriced American junk, that they don’t know how to use effectively. I would rank it below the Ukraine.

  22. between 2015 and 2020 almost all countries (Saudi Arabia stayed constant) gained in CMP strength relative to the USA. Has Trump slowed down investment in the military? Will Biden reverse this trend?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @J Lee
  23. UK,Japan and Turkey trailing Saudi Arabia?

    • Replies: @Blade
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  24. Honestly, as it stands right now, I see no hope of the US winning a conventional war against China even at this very moment. I do not believe that the US could stop a Chinese conquest of Taiwan.

    The US has the most powerful air force to have ever existed. Its advantages in numbers of modern aircraft, AESA radars, EW capabilities, BVR capabilities and stealth leave Chine and Russia in the dust. HOWEVER, this advantage counts for naught if it can’t be deployed in the region of conflict.

    The US has 11 carriers. At any moment, due to maintenance issues, 4 will be in the docks, leaving 7. The US can’t just leave its home waters in the atlantic and pacific unmanned, so two aircraft carriers will be diverted as well.

    That leaves the US with a maximum of five aircraft carriers which could deploy roughly 210 F/A 18 super hornets at any one time. Realistically, the maintenance requirements and age of the fleet will ensure that 160 will be available for deployment at any single time.

    US airbases in Japan and Okinawa are simply too far away to sustain combat patrols over Taiwan.

    In contrast, the Chinese have roughly 930 4+, 4++ and 5th gen fighters in their arsenal. The distance from China to Taiwan is a mere 230 km or so.

    Due to the threat of Chinese anti-ship missiles, submarines and frigates, the US navy will have remain at least 500 km or so away from Taiwan. The F/A 18 only has a combat range of 700 km and sortie rates are low for carrier based aircraft to begin with.

    So at any given moment, the F/A 18 Super hornets will probably be outnumbered 5-1 or 6-1 over the skies of Taiwan.

    The Taiwanese air force can largely be discounted as it would be destroyed on the ground in the initial Chinese strikes. China’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will crush it on the ground. Hypersonic missiles are a pretty hyped toy nowadays, however its usefulness against moving targets like warships are questionable.

    However, hypersonics are excellent weapons against fixed targets like air bases and radar stations.

    Then there’s the naval factor. The US navy has greater tonnage but the Chinese navy has greater numbers. Larger ships only matter when you’re operating in the open oceans far away from home. The conflict will take place within a 1000 km of Chinese shores for the most part.

    In ww1 the size of vessels were an issue because only larger ships could carry large guns. But in this age of supersonic guided missiles, a cruise missile will destroy a large destroyer just as easily as it destroys a cute Corvette.

    The Chinese have about 60-70 frigates and destroyers, along with 2 aircraft carriers. They will far outgun whatever forces five US carrier groups can bring. Plus the Chinese have 66 submarines which will operate defensively, close to the Chinese shores.

    Another thing to consider is the age of the fleets. The US navy is old, most of its arleigh burke class destroyers are over 30 years old. Their engines and hulls are old. The Chinese navy in contrast is newborn and fresh.

    So all in all, my guess is that the Chinese will probably take Taiwan even if the US intervenes. And if Taiwan falls, the US plan to blockade China will collapse as its linchpin in the South China sea will fall.

    If a war was fought today, the odds are squarely with China.

    • Agree: RoatanBill
    • Thanks: SeekerofthePresence
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @threestars
  25. @Znzn

    India wouldn’t be that big of an issue honestly. It would be like the Italian front of ww1. The entire Indo-Chinese border is inhospitable himalayas ridge. No offensive can break through it.

    The Chinese can however easily overrun the seven sister provinces of India in the East.

    Japan would be a deadly foe however. It has a phenomenal fleet and a capable air force.

    • Replies: @Rahan
    , @InnerCynic
    , @128
  26. Big shout out to You Anatoli for your eclectic interests and your allowal of autoposting of comments.

    • Agree: sher singh
  27. Mr. XYZ says:

    Nonetheless, we see that NATO brings its share up to 41.5%, still far ahead of the Sino-Russian bloc, let alone either China or Russia separately. This hints at the great multipliers the US gains from its system of alliances (if they can be successfully coaxed in should a conflict develop into World War III). Tacking on Japan (1.9%), South Korea (2.4%), Taiwan (1.0%), and Australia and Canada (0.8% each) increases the Western bloc’s share of military power to almost half the world’s total – most likely fully half adding in various minor satraps.

    Adding in Ukraine would give the Western bloc an addition 4.0% here. And of course there is also Israel, but the Israelis prefer to have others do their fighting, fulfilling the “cunning Jew” stereotype! 😉 Ditto for Saudi Arabia, but replace “cunning Jew” with “cunning Arab”! 😉

    Anyway, excellent job with this analysis, Anatoly! 🙂

    It’s quite interesting–do you think that Russia could have ever been brought into the Western bloc, Anatoly? But of course this would have very likely required Russia to give up any claims to a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe (at least outside of Belarus)–though a Russian sphere of influence in Central Asia would have likely been allowed by the West so long as Russia didn’t actually go too far in regards to this (political integration and all of that).

    Also, would South Vietnam have also been a part of the Western bloc had South Vietnam somehow managed to survive up to the present-day?

    • Replies: @JosephB
    , @ivan cohen
  28. @Felix Keverich

    India has a couple aircraft carriers and lots of subs, they locally produce lots of things like airplanes (licensed from Russia) and tanks (ditto, though they also have their own inferior battle tank). They also have nukes.

    Just think about the Americans attacking India: attacking Iran would be difficult, but attacking India would be just impossible.

    I agree about Saudi Arabia, they are an anomaly, and very difficult to assess. Would their soldiers be any better in a purely defensive war? Maybe. I don’t know. But certainly I wouldn’t consider them too strong militarily, despite the many expensive shiny toys.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  29. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The Civil War also allowed the Northern US to impose its desired peace upon the Southern US–specifically the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution. The US Supreme Court initially narrowly interpreted these amendments, but later on, especially starting from the Civil Rights Era in the 1950s and 1960s, these amendments were interpreted by the US Supreme Court much more broadly.

    • Agree: ruralguy
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  30. @Felix Keverich

    By no means is India below Iran. The Indian air force is very strong, with 230 or so SU-30MKI equipped with Israeli sensors. Plus it has upgraded Mig-29s and a fresh squadron of Rafaele fighters from France. The Rafales are probably the best non-stealth aircraft in the world with unmatched BVR and EW capabilities.

    The Indians also have an aircraft carrier.

    Iran can’t make any modern military equipment. While it can produce large numbers of modern ballistic and cruise missiles, that’s no substitute for an air force or navy. The Iranian air force is old and antiquated, its best aircraft are F-14s left over from the 1970s.

    Plus the Indians have a large smart fraction of Brahmins. I have no idea if they go to the military though. The Iranians are tough, they can probably defeat Saudi Arabia despite technological inferiority or even hold off Turkey.

    But they are far weaker than India. India does however lack the ability to domestically produce arms. In a protracted war with China, it could run out of equipment pretty soon.

  31. Mr. XYZ says:
    @reiner Tor

    Why the Hell would the US ever actually attack India?

  32. @Znzn

    How dare Canada not included –it was Canada who defeated Hitler on the Eastern Front dressed as Russians.

  33. @Felix Keverich

    “India is a huge, but disfunctional third-world country, with no domestic arms production.”

    Sure..

    Aircraft Carrier

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikrant_(2013)

    Road Mobile ICBM

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni-V

    Independent GPS satellite network

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Regional_Navigation_Satellite_System

    But please don’t let facts get in the way of your opinions.

    “Personally, I would place India below Iran, whose power-projection capabilities are considerable.”

    LOL.There are people in whose personal opinion Russia is overall less powerful than the UK. You know the UK has aircraft carriers that aren’t accompanied by tugboats,has quieter submarines,better planes EF 2000/JSF and more modern ships and is a global financial centre with a larger economy..As for nukes well Russia won’t risk the destruction of all major cities guaranteed thanks to the Trident D5/Vanguard so the fact that it has 10 times more doesn’t really matter..

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    , @Lin
  34. Bert says:

    On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed. Almost as if geopolitics is like some kind of chemical soup, subject to natural laws, with all else (e.g. “Uyghur genocide”, “WuFlu”, etc.) being naught but sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    The MSM's choice of what is important within complex systems is always laughably off-target, whether they are dealing with an epidemic, geopolitics or stock market price action. Natural laws are beyond their ken.

  35. @Caspar Von Everec

    I remember when India and Pakistan had recent border clashes, India deployed a couple of MIG 21 (1960 plane), which got shot down obviously. After this humiliation India rushed to place an “emergency order” with Russia for a fresh batch of SU-30.

    Perhaps, the Brahmins didn’t make it into the country’s military institutions, or the merchants (whatever the Brahmins do) don’t make good military planners. Either way India’s approach to developing its armed forces is haphazard at best. From what I can tell Rafale deal was motivated by corruption. They got an outdated jet for a price of F35.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Blade
    , @DNS
  36. @Felix Keverich

    The Rafales are cheaper to operate than the F-35s.

    Overall India is a mixed bag, but it can certainly produce some weapons, overall their domestic industry is stronger than that of Iran.

  37. @Mr. XYZ

    They wouldn’t. It was an example. A hypothetical scenario to illustrate a point.

  38. @Vishnugupta

    The funny thing that UK navy is both smaller AND less capable compared to Russian surfice navy, and I’d imagine that India would be leasing used British subs if they were so good. 😂

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  39. @Felix Keverich

    The RN surface fleet is smaller yes but on what basis are you assuming them to be less capable ?

    As for leasing nuclear subs..well back in the early 2000s we only had the Russian option.Akula 2 is a great sub to learn and base our first nuclear submarine on.

    Also the Akula 2 we have in our Navy was brand new handed over to us immediately after sea trials.

    So money well spent.

    As far as one can determine from publicly available information Astute class is acoustically comparable to the Virginia class which makes them superior to Yasen.Historically Russian subs have been faster,better armed and can dive deeper due to double hull design but US/British subs have been quieter.

    Going forward our S5 SSBN which is a full size SSBN (under construction)unlike the presently deployed Arihant class which can carry only 4 SLBMs looks like a cross between the vanguard class sub and a Delta 4.So one wonders.

    https://idrw.org/india-next-generation-s5-ballistic-missile-submarine-leaked/

    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
  40. Blade says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    Iran would easily beat Saudis but could not hold off Turkey. Most of the countries above Turkey would not actually be able fight Turkey, the list gives too much emphasis on military spending. None of the European countries could fight Turkey alone and win. In truth only the US has capacity to go to war with any country. Others could fight within their periphery.

    As for China vs. India, the Chinese would eat Indians for breakfast. I mean it would be so one sided, and it has little to do with manufacturing arms. I suspect even Iran could hold off India.

    • Replies: @AKAHorace
  41. Blade says:
    @Vishnugupta

    Saudi Arabia wishes it didn’t have to spend so much on arms and stay high on these lists. But they have to pay tributes if they want to continue their shitty little monarchy. They just have a ton of weapons that they cannot use. Their capability is obvious in Yemen.

  42. Blade says:
    @Felix Keverich

    India isn’t a country. Not a nation. It is a subcontinent of dozens of states and ethnic groups glued together forcibly first by the Turks, then by the British. They cannot fight effectively for that reason. Not that they had been a warrior people historically. If they tried to fight China it would be a disaster. I doubt that they could even win against Pakistan or Iran. I think it would be a stalemate. They just don’t have the martial culture.

  43. @Felix Keverich

    Saudi Arabia is a military non-entity with some overpriced American junk, that they don’t know how to use effectively. I would rank it below the Ukraine.

    😂😂😂😂

  44. Britain is run by an “intelligentsia” who despise their own country, so it’s only logical that it would have a hugely degraded military because what role does it play any more other than to a few old style Tories who are dying out any way?

    They also never meet their recruitment targets, in fact they fall widely short of them every year, but it’s obvious why. A very large percentage of young people in the UK are immigrants, maybe majority immigrant in their target age group, who have no sentimental attachment to the UK. Why would they want to fight for this country? Most of them despise it from a historical perspective.

    As for the few remaining native British youth, why would they want to join the military either when they’re constantly told that Britain is an evil, oppressive country and that the military is a tool of oppression of non-whites?

    Frankly considering all the negative propaganda against Britain and its history it amazes me that this country still has a military at all, and hasn’t done an Iceland and just abolished it entirely because frankly I can’t see who would want anything to do with it any more, native or immigrant.

    The other issue is that the British military is starting to develop a bad rep for bullying and brutality, like the Russian military used to have.

    • Replies: @HeebHunter
    , @Rdm
  45. The recent effective entrance of Iran into the Sinosphere

    The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.

    [MORE]

    Miniature painting became a significant genre in Persian art in the 13th century, receiving Chinese influence after the Mongol conquests.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_miniature

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  46. @Blinky Bill

    “Uyghur Genocide”

    [MORE]


    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  47. DNS says:
    @Felix Keverich

    The Indian armed forces are vastly over-rated by Karlin here, I would agree with that, but they are certainly not below Iran. It would be another story if Iran was not under crushing sanctions, but for the time…

    Pakistan is run by the military more or less, so they naturally have a much greater focus on their armed forces and their procurement procedures are far superior to India’s, which cannot even manage to get a deal signed with Russia to locally produce the AK-203.

    It will probably take a crushing military defeat at the hands of China to jolt politicians into action. The 2019 skirmishes in Kashmir were hugely embarrassing for India and made it quite clear how outdated it’s air force was, as if the periodic crashes of the MiG-21 were not indication enough.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  48. @Blade

    Hindus don’t, but neither do you.

  49. iffen says:

    Great post, AK.

    Now, if Smoothie would just come in and tell us how you got everything wrong it would be double great post.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Znzn
    , @Daniel Chieh
  50. iffen says:
    @Tor597

    I think you’ll see Asia as a while turn away from the west

    After all the sacrifices that we have made for Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam?

    No way, we are BFFs .

  51. Znzn says:
    @iffen

    Maybe a dashboard of metrics rather than a single figure? And not sure about wether militaries that are primarily geared towards expeditionary capabilities like the US and UK should be placed in the group as militaries whose purpose is home defence like Colombia or Chile. And should militaries that are designed primarily for counterinsurgency, like Colombia or Mexico, be placed in the same category as militaries that are geared for conventional defence, like Chile or Brazil? Also as 1940 and Arab Israeli war shows, military doctrine could actually be the deciding factor in a conflict rather than platforms. Not sure how you can account for that in a single metric.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @Almost Missouri
  52. @DNS

    I get the impression that Pakistanis are generally more aggressive and warlike than Indians, mainly because they seem to be racially more Indo-Aryan and Central Asian, races that seem to be more warlike than the more Dravidian and to a lesser extent East Asian influenced Indians.

    Islam is also arguably a more aggressive and martial ideology than Hinduism which adds to this.

  53. iffen says:
    @Znzn

    military doctrine could actually be the deciding factor in a conflict rather than platforms

    So, you are saying that we are screwed no matter what the numbers say?

  54. @iffen

    Smoothie is too busy calculating the volume of the n-sphere to proceed.

  55. @Europe Europa

    Pakistan also has the unique advantage of having everyone train them, so essentially they get a substantial surplus in terms of military capability with officers trained in realistic combat scenarios.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pakistan/u-s-to-resume-military-training-program-for-pakistan-state-department-idUSKBN1YO03S

    I wonder if there’s somewhere that we can find general shot accuracy of soldiers from various militaries, which might be a decent proxy for overall training.

  56. Unironic usage of the term “SJW” in 2021 lol

    This isn’t 2015. No one cares about the blue haired kids on campuses anymore. There are more pressing issues at hand than some stupid culture war against phantom “SJW”s.

    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
  57. Including Saudi Arabia, Singapore and UAE in that list is hilarious.

    • Replies: @songbird
  58. @Mr. XYZ

    Agree. Since the 1960s, the 14th Amendment in particular, has become essentially a new wokeist Constitution imposed by the judiciary.

    The other thing that has happened since the Civil War is that the Federal government, which formerly had no Constitutional basis for a standing army nor legal grounds for deploying such an army within the United States, has not only created such a standing army but has also written special “Civil Rights” carve-outs into law allowing it deploy hostilely into domestic States without permission of that State. And the Federal government has used this power repeatedly, but only against the right.

  59. Realist says:
    @JohnPlywood

    This war is going to be fought with unconventional electronic weapons, drones, and special forces.

    US Special Forces will be pregnant, women with dicks and have an IQ of 70.

  60. @AlexanderGrozny

    No one cares about the blue haired kids on campuses anymore.

    Correct, now they’re not just on campuses, now they’re in the Pentagon and White House, Whitehall and Sandhurst.

    And like a King anti-Midas, everything they touch turns to sh*t.

    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  61. Znzn says:

    It depends on things like strategic depth? Which France did not have in 1940?

  62. @Almost Missouri

    >Sandhurst

  63. songbird says:

    How much latent war potential exists in the commercial air fleets of different countries? Figure: transporting soldiers, being converted to planes for paratroopers, or bombers, machine gun platforms, drone droppers.

    There were several civilian planes that were used by different militaries.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Blinky Bill
  64. @Felix Keverich

    Arabs are notoriously terrible soldiers. Hezbollah and the Jordanian Army seem to be exceptions to that rule.

  65. @AlexanderGrozny

    The truth is that SJWs are easy to control because they are stupid and dysfunctional, whereas the Biden and Hillary types (neocons) are much more dangerous.

  66. @songbird

    https://defence-blog.com/news/azerbaijani-military-turns-soviet-biplane-aircraft-into-drones.html

    Poor museum pieces.

    I’m not sure if Great Power Wars will rely on repurposed civilian craft, although they may serve a purpose on the backline for transport.

    • Replies: @songbird
  67. @4Dchessmaster

    Attempting to use the stupid has its downsides.

    http://www.vvaw.org/veteran/article/?id=3211&print=yes

    A low-IQ soldier played a deadly joke for two days pulling the pin of a hand grenade and then rolling it toward his mates. Nothing happened since he had disabled it pulling out the detonator cylinder. His mates beat him each time for scaring them finally yelling at him: “Never again, Bozo!” The third day they muttered and kept eating ignoring him as they wouldn’t fall for the same lame gag. When he did the same trick, this time he had forgotten to disable it. The grenade exploded killing two soldiers and wounding several others. Rather than send him to the States to try him for manslaughter, they made him perform risks like walking point exposing him to booby-traps, detonating a landmine, or sniper bait.

    https://medium.com/@LivingHistory/project-100-000-the-mentally-disabled-men-who-fought-in-vietnam-1cbe145cc126

    Increased utilization of dimwits is likely even more punished in the high technology and complex battlefield of tomorrow.

    New Standards soldiers weren’t just a danger to themselves. Having soldiers who could not understand even basic commands posed a danger to everyone in their vicinity. A popular infantry officer was killed by his own New Standards soldier on accident. The soldier was supposed to let him into their patrol base after he gave the password, but the soldier got confused and shot his own platoon leader. Another mentally disabled recruit couldn’t figure out the safety on his M16. One day on patrol he negligently discharged and shot another soldier in the leg. He would later die of shock.

  68. @Znzn

    What would the CMP have looked like between Germany and France in 1940?

    The series conveniently extends down to 1940 for the major combatant powers.
    Here it is for 1940…

    USA 0.35
    USSR 1.02
    China 0.11
    France 1.09
    Germany 1.88
    UK 0.83
    Japan 0.35
    India 0.02

    …and 1945:

    USA 9.19
    USSR 4.48
    China 0.32
    France 0.00
    Germany 4.04
    UK 2.22
    Japan 1.29
    India 0.11

    Looks highly plausible, even if I do say so myself.

  69. 128 says:

    That seems to indicate that the Battle of France would have been a lot harder than it did in OTL? If you add the score of France and Britain vs. Germany. Keeping in mind that France and Britain can basically bring every man they can get across to the Franco Belgian region, while Germany can not divert its entire army to the West. I recall that a lot of military people rated France as having the strongest army in Europe in 1940.

  70. @Erik Sieven

    Trump did indeed preside over stagnant military spending (while GDP increased). That said, countries gaining on the US during the past few years is more an artifact of my decision to close the technological gap between the US and “near peer competitors” (China, Russia) to zero, and with most other countries to 5 years instead of the previous 10 or 15.

    I do think that this broadly reflects a military reality, i.e. globalization and digitization making technological gaps relatively less of an issue than was the case previously. Otherwise, I wouldn’t have implemented that change.

    [MORE]

    SIPRI:

    1988 657527.2731
    1989 651972.4107
    1990 624852.4858
    1991 551976.0466
    1992 581671.2356
    1993 550542.255
    1994 521922.9319
    1995 487525.3276
    1996 461006.641
    1997 458621.811
    1998 448266.0267
    1999 449369.1382
    2000 466758.7878
    2001 470549.6394
    2002 528337.3471
    2003 601335.1555
    2004 655407.2824
    2005 685594.6244
    2006 695473.8562
    2007 714031.7732
    2008 765973.0817
    2009 826247.139
    2010 849866.6557
    2011 839803.3132
    2012 793156.6032
    2013 732147.9169
    2014 687111.9303
    2015 671508.5986
    2016 669448.0312
    2017 662550.406
    2018 682491.4
    2019 718688.7039

  71. songbird says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I was thinking of a very big bush war, like Nigeria 2100. Maybe, paired with some sort of logistical/industrial collapse. Perhaps, civilian craft would be more fuel efficient, in some instances. Outlandish scenario, for sure, but I’m skeptical of the potentiality for a great power war because of nukes. Also, other reasons, like economic fallout, and political risks.

    We did a pretty good job of avoiding one after WW2. What was the closest thing? Maybe, Chinese troops coming over the Yalu, but that was years before they had nukes, and when they were under a Russian shield.

    • Replies: @SeekerofthePresence
  72. @Vishnugupta

    And this is after the addition of two negative cultural modifiers to Saudi Arabia (“clannishness” and “south”).

    When I rejig the system in the future, I’ll just get rid of all of them in favor of IQ, which is a much more standardized and objective measure.

  73. 128 says:

    Also even with the losses at Pearl Harbor, the US Navy arguably still had a counteroffensive capability equal to that of the IJN, and 90 percent of Japan’s army was in the Asian mainland, leaving only some divisions for the Centrifugal offensive. In defence of the Breda plan, if the Allies wanted to keep Belgium, then Antwerp and the area around it must be kept open.

  74. @iffen

    Japan might, but they’re less interested in serving American influence than replacing American influence in Asia.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @iffen
  75. 128 says:

    Prior 1940, Gamelin was actually very well regarded even by the Germans. By the time of Okinawa, the Japanese fleet was basically moribund, even even by the time of Iow Jima.

  76. Japan vs China Anti Ship Missile Ranges.

    See if you can guess which one is which.

    A literal pissing contest.

  77. songbird says:
    @Agathoklis

    What is funny about the UAE is that it has a number of foreign bases.

    Imagine if Hungary had foreign bases, and then imagine if Hungary’s national IQ were 1 SD lower.

    • Replies: @SeekerofthePresence
  78. Alfa158 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I’m surprised at the value of 4.04 for a 1945 Germany with severely degraded armor, airforce, and navy and the remnants of the Wehrmacht having to be supplemented by old men and untrained teenage boys. The manner in which Allied forces were plowing through Germany at that stage suggested that they were no longer remotely close to the USSR’s 4.48.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  79. @Caspar Von Everec

    Due to the threat of Chinese anti-ship missiles, submarines and frigates, the US navy will have remain at least 500 km or so away from Taiwan. The F/A 18 only has a combat range of 700 km and sortie rates are low for carrier based aircraft to begin with.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Caspar Von Everec
  80. Rahan says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    Japan would be a deadly foe however. It has a phenomenal fleet and a capable air force.

    This is a very interesting question: the two most dangerous axis militaries of WWII were the Germans and the Japs. To what extent has the army of each retained or lost its abilities by this point?
    I hear some sad stuff about the Kraut ability to get their tanks to start up during unexpected drills, but how goes it with the Japs? Anyone in the know?

  81. @Anatoly Karlin

    It is provided you can get legit IQ scores outside the OECD.And then the IQ of the communities that make up the bulk of the armed forces

    I suspect India will be the most complicated country among the major powers to account for..

    Without boring you with details of exactly how

    Indian Navy Officer IQ > IAF Officer IQ > > Indian Army Officer IQ.

    This results in cartoonish facts on the ground of India being able to successfully design and build its own Aircraft Carrier,Nuclear Submarines, Destroyers,Frigates,ICBM/SLBM, Helicopters ,GPS Navigation Satellites and light fighter planes but not relatively much simpler things like Tanks,Rifles and Artillery.

  82. 128 says:

    I read somewhere that the reason why the West did not develop supersonic SSMs is the belief that supersonic SSMs are less maneuverable than subsonic SSMs, thus negating their speed advantage. If you believe that the Americans are pozzed, therefore they can not reason properly, you can ask the French. Chinese troops by the summer of 1945 were actually quite effective against the Japanese, which had zero power projection or ability to maneuver or supply its armies by this time so to speak.

  83. 128 says:

    Has anybody heard of the Free French Forces per chance?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_France#Campaigns_in_France_and_Germany_1944%E2%80%931945

    Campaigns in France and Germany 1944–1945
    Main articles: Allied advance from Paris to the Rhine and Western Allied invasion of Germany
    By September 1944, the Free French forces stood at 560,000 (including 176,500 White French from North Africa, 63,000 metropolitan French, 233,000 Maghrebis and 80,000 from Black Africa).[92][93] The GPRF set about raising new troops to participate in the advance to the Rhine and the invasion of Germany, using the FFI as military cadres and manpower pools of experienced fighters to allow a very large and rapid expansion of the French Liberation Army. It was well equipped and well supplied despite the economic disruption brought by the occupation thanks to Lend-Lease, and their number rose to 1 million by the end of the year. French forces were fighting in Alsace-Lorraine, the Alps, and besieging the heavily fortified French Atlantic coast submarine bases that remained Hitler-mandated stay-behind “fortresses” in ports along the Atlantic coast like La Rochelle and Saint-Nazaire until the German capitulation in May 1945.

    Also in September 1944, the Allies having outrun their logistic tail (the “Red Ball Express”), the front stabilised along Belgium’s northern and eastern borders and in Lorraine. From then on it moved at a slower pace, first to the Siegfried Line and then in the early months of 1945 to the Rhine in increments. For instance, the Ist Corps seized the Belfort Gap in a coup de main offensive in November 1944, their German opponents believing they had entrenched for the winter.

    A plaque commemorating the Oath of Kufra in near the cathedral of Strasbourg
    The French 2nd Armoured Division, tip of the spear of the Free French forces that had participated in the Normandy Campaign and liberated Paris, went on to liberate Strasbourg on 23 November 1944, thus fulfilling the Oath of Kufra made by its commanding officer General Leclerc almost four years earlier. The unit under his command, barely above company size when it had captured the Italian fort, had grown into a full-strength armoured division.

    The spearhead of the Free French First Army that had landed in Provence was the Ist Corps. Its leading unit, the French 1st Armoured Division, was the first Western Allied unit to reach the Rhône (25 August 1944), the Rhine (19 November 1944) and the Danube (21 April 1945). On 22 April 1945, it captured Sigmaringen in Baden-Württemberg, where the last Vichy regime exiles, including Marshal Pétain, were hosted by the Germans in one of the ancestral castles of the Hohenzollern dynasty.

    They participated in stopping Operation Nordwind, the very last German major offensive on the western front in January 1945, and in collapsing the Colmar Pocket in January–February 1945, capturing and destroying most of the German XIXth Army. Operations by the First Army in April 1945 encircled and captured the German XVIII SS Corps in the Black Forest, and cleared and occupied south-western Germany. At the end of the war, the motto of the French First Army was Rhin et Danube, referring to the two great German rivers that it had reached and crossed during its combat operations.

    In May 1945, by the end of the war in Europe, the Free French forces comprised 1,300,000 personnel, and included around forty divisions making it the fourth largest Allied army in Europe behind the Soviet Union, the US and Britain.[94] The GPRF sent an expeditionary force to the Pacific to retake French Indochina from the Japanese, but Japan surrendered before they could arrive in theatre.

    At that time, General Alphonse Juin was the chief of staff of the French army, but it was General François Sevez who represented France at Reims on 7 May, while General Jean de Lattre de Tassigny led the French delegation at Berlin on V-E day, as he was the commander of the French First Army. At the Yalta Conference, Germany had been divided into Soviet, American and British occupation zones, but France was then given an occupation zone in Germany, as well as in Austria and in the city of Berlin. It was not only the role that France played in the war which was recognised, but its important strategic position and significance in the Cold War as a major democratic, capitalist nation of Western Europe in holding back the influence of communism on the continent.

    Approximately 58,000 men were killed fighting in the Free French forces between 1940 and 1945.[95]

    And de Tassigny was as good as any Allied general in Europe during the 1944-1945 period, plus any analysis of nation strenghts would have to be granular in nature, and would have to take into account the relative strenghts of each branch of the armed forces by country, or even down to the unit level (maybe too much work?) per theather, and per sector of the theater. And by January of 1945 after the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans were basically moribund anyway.

  84. China is now at 57%, but it has a bigger GDP (PPP) than the US (it produces its own weapons, so yes, GDP (PPP) is what counts here), a much faster rate of growth, and on top of that its military spending is around 1.9% or almost twice less than the US at 3.4%, i.e. much more room for more catch-up spending (should it choose to pursue that path) that was feasible for the USSR.

  85. songbird says:

    Not sure how it relates to American military readiness, but, speaking personally, I’ve never heard more ridiculous appeals to American unity and the American identity (“We are all Americans”) than in the past few months. (the MAGA rally brought some of this out in the Left as a counter-reaction) It has really become farcical.

    Seriously, you will get people with Ibram X. Kendi on their shelf, saying this shit. And I don’t just mean blacks, or white libs, I mean indios, who will say they don’t like BLM (I wonder why!), but call Trump a fascist, and say that they face racism every day.

    I mentioned this before, but tens of thousands of national guard troops were kept out of Vietnam in order to have some insurance against blacks, and that was over 50 years ago.

  86. @Vishnugupta

    Noo,

    it’s just that Navy Officers being gay have no need of French or Russian prostitutes.

  87. songbird says:

    I wonder what the ethnic composition of India’s special forces are…

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  88. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that the U.S. would go head-to-head with Chinese forces on Chinese turf. None of the U.S. plans are written this way.

    If there are hostilities, U.S. strategic forces will assume position in the Southern Indian Ocean. Smaller vessels will operate further North providing a screen. PRC hydrocarbon imports from the Persian Gulf will be reduced to near zero.

    China can over fly Pakistan, stretching bomber operations, in an attempt to achieve a viable position on U.S. strategic forces. However, they stand a good chance of being shot down before they can launch. Even if they do release a few missiles, there will be multiple opportunities to intercept them before they reach their targets.

    How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing? Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

    PEACE 😇

  89. Passer by says:

    More data that must be brought to Karlin’s attention: the US is burried under a mountain of debt.

    Under current law, US military spending must drop from 3,4 % today to nearly 2.8 % of GDP by 2031, as an attempt to stop the growing debt from burrying the US. Civilian spending must drop by similar amounts too.

    https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-03/56977-LTBO-2021.pdf

    Additionally, the US faces a fiscal gap of 3,6 % of GDP by 2025 and 4,4 % of GDP by 2030 (the amount of cuts needed to stop federal debt from growing and stabilise it at one)

    http://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-cbos-2020-long-term-budget-outlook

    which means that the US will have to cut spending further. The spending cuts will be smaller if it starts in 2025 and higher if it starts by 2030.

    So you are looking at US military budget at an all time low of around 2,5 % of GDP by 2030.

    This assertion is also backed from the Trump plan for cutting the US deficit from 2020, which assumed US defense spending at 2,5 % by 2030. And it is well known that the Trump admin was much more supportive of higher military spending compared to the Biden Admin.

    So chinese military budget must reach US military budget in MER terms by 2035, while being significantly higher in PPP terms by 2035.

  90. @Vishnugupta

    This would be cool, but would require too much work/ongoing country-specific research. Don’t think it’s feasible.

    Indian Navy Officer IQ > IAF Officer IQ > > Indian Army Officer IQ

    I think this is a near universal pattern. 🙂 With submariners, moreover, being at the very top.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  91. Passer by says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    And this is after the addition of two negative cultural modifiers to Saudi Arabia (“clannishness” and “south”).

    Clannishness is a genetic modifier as well (high inbreeding in muslim populations, leading to certain types of behaviors in muslim populations).

  92. @A123

    If there are hostilities, U.S. strategic forces will assume position in the Southern Indian Ocean.

    How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing?

    China’s dependence on crude oil imports has been growing in recent years and the world’s top oil importer covered 73.4 percent of its oil demand with imported oil in the first half of 2020.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_petroleum_reserve_(China)

    • Replies: @Passer by
    , @Blinky Bill
    , @A123
  93. songbird says:

    I wonder how many Saudis could parallel park a car, let alone win a fight in the air.

  94. @songbird

    They have lots of Tibetans, no joke…

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Kouroi
  95. Passer by says:
    @Blinky Bill

    And there is something much more significant: China is becoming the world’s biggest oil refiner.

    Which means that as the rest of the world and especially the West is shutting down refineries, it is becoming dependent on refined petroleum products from China.

    Imagine that: China is dependent on imporitng oil yet it made much of the world dependent on oil products refined in China.

    An oil exporter such as Australia has become dependent on refined oil products made in China due to its own deindustrialisation.

    Cheap Chinese petroleum drives refineries out of Australia

    BP and ExxonMobil closures sound alarm for energy security

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Cheap-Chinese-petroleum-drives-refineries-out-of-Australia

    https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-lubes/china-set-to-eclipse-america-as-worlds-biggest-oil-refiner/79348304

  96. @4Dchessmaster

    They are stupid and dysfunctional, and they are easy to control … by Twitter, … by their commanding officers not so much.

  97. songbird says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Never really thought of it before, but I suppose Tibetan exiles would come in handy for high altitude deployments.

  98. @Blinky Bill

    20%×73%×70% = 10%

    They might succeed in reducing China’s total energy supply by approximately 10% give or take, in the long run. But only after she has depleted her Strategic Petroleum Reserves, by which time she most likely will have adapted and increased production of alternative energy sources. Taiwan will not last that long.

  99. Wency says:
    @Boomthorkell

    The Confederacy only happened because States were genuinely…well, entities at the time

    Agree with this, but another point that people often seem to miss: the US Army had 16,000 men in 1860. Three years later the Confederate Army, at its peak, had 460,000 men (the Union ended up with about a million). Even if we go with the 13 theoretical Confederate states (as opposed to 11 actual), that translates to 35,000 men per Confederate state. Meaning that the average Confederate state was able to muster roughly double the manpower of the entire peacetime US Army.

    In determining the course and ultimate outcome of the Civil War, the peacetime US army might as well have not existed. Little would have changed. This bought the Confederates time to build armies and institutions, which secessionists desperately need wherever they hope to put up a real fight. This prevents the central government from basically arresting the secessionist leaders as a police action (a la Catalonia 2014), and instead forces the central government to *invade*, which is quite a different prospect.

    The modern US cannot dissolve unless the armed forces either evaporate or stand down and allow it. The US military has historically been one of the most cohesive elements of American society, and it wants the country to remain intact. Maybe the rise of Wokeness in the military will cause massive divisions that break this trend, but I wouldn’t count on it, at least not anytime soon.

    The US megacorps (and their megabucks), by the way, also want the country to remain intact. If you think the corporate class hated Brexit, their fear and distaste for US secession or national dissolution is 1000x that, with the difference that normies are also against it, can’t really conceive of or even properly imagine it.

    • Replies: @iffen
  100. @A123

    How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing?

    The Elite CCP is keeping the people of China down from an increasingly pent-up desire to invade Taiwan.

  101. @Alfa158

    This is a bit of an urban legend. Germany’s real constraints towards the end of the war were not in manpower or industrial production, but fuel. At the start of 1945, it still had more than 300 divisions in the field, more than 7M men under arms, and industrial production had peaked in 1944. It had no shortage of military hardware.

    It’s an interesting what if question whether the USSR could have finished the job had the Western Allies signed a peace treaty with Germany as late as Jan 1, 1945. I doubt it.

  102. @Anatoly Karlin

    I would recommend this video on this subject..

    • Thanks: Almost Missouri
  103. @128

    That seems to indicate that the Battle of France would have been a lot harder than it did in OTL?

    It does seem that way. But then, that was also the judgement of just about everyone on the scene at the time: that France was a peer military to Germany. You could say that those judgments (and Karlin’s CMP) were not wrong, it’s just that Germany’s rapid victory over France in 1940 was something of a coup against reality (perhaps abetted by contemporary French military incompetence). Your CMP matters less if you use it wrong.

    Keeping in mind that France and Britain can basically bring every man they can get across to the Franco Belgian region, while Germany can not divert its entire army to the West.

    Au contraire, France and even more so Britain had huge colonial empires to police. Germany, having been deprived of it’s meager overseas colonies after WWI, didn’t have this handicap. I forget the figures exactly, but I think only about half of France’s army was available to defend the northern frontier. And the British Expeditionary Force was only about a tenth the size of the French force. We hear about the BEF a lot in the Anglosphere for obvious reasons, but it was not so significant militarily.

    By contrast, Germany could concentrate most of its military into this offensive. The invasion of Poland (with the Non-Aggression-Pacted USSR) was already won, so Germany only needed to leave a few second-rate garrison/pacification troops in the east.

    Also, it’s often forgotten today, that Italy invaded France from the southeast at the same time.

    • Replies: @128
    , @128
  104. Passer by says:
    @A123

    An oil blockade on China

    Which will fuck up the world refined petroleum products market which was captured by China and will leave many countries with refined petroleum products shortages, including US allies and even the US to extent. The West is shutting down oil refineries, which will make an oil embargo on the world’s largest oil refiner even more unfeasible in the future.

    So China is wisely making itself an indispensable nation in oil refinery.

    Moreover, Russia can supply China with all the resources it needs. Enough said.

  105. 128 says:
    @Almost Missouri

    France had more tanks and better tanks than Germany, which had more aircraft than Britain and France in France and Belgium.

  106. @iffen

    No way, we are BFFs .

    The US’ actions during the Scarborough Shoals dispute really damaged our reputation in that region:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal#Sovereignty_dispute

  107. DNS says:
    @Europe Europa

    Yes, the major Pakistani ethnic groups are Punjabi, Pathan (Pashtun) and Baloch, all of which were designated as “martial races” by the British. There is also a feeling embedded within Pakistani society that they are heirs to the various Muslim conquerors* which united much of the subcontinent for centuries. This is ironic as the Indus Valley Civilization (from which “India” derives its name) was mainly located in Pakistan and North-West India and was truly indigenous, but since this was a Buddhist and Pagan civilisation, the Pakistani educational apparatus places little to no importance on this and Pakistani history begins in the 7th Century when General Muhammad bin Quasim led his troops into Sindh.

    However, there is also a lot of bravado involved, the saying used to be that “1 Pakistani Muslim is equal to 10 Indian Hindus”, but the wars and conflicts fought between India and Pakistan in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999 proved otherwise, hence today Pakistan spends a lot of money on its military, maintaining an armed force around half the size of India’s despite being only one-seventh as populated, and spending far more on defence as a percentage of GDP than India does.

    * – Kabul objects to Pakistani missile names

    Pakistan will not rename missiles

  108. 128 says:
    @Almost Missouri

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_France

    Numbers of Allied and German troops were equal, the French had a lot more tanks and more artillery, the Germans had a lot more planes. The French tanks getting to Bulson ridge a few minutes sooner could have saved the whole thing.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  109. Wency says:
    @128

    The Battle of France strikes me as a huge problem in any sort of analysis like this. Perhaps CMP ought to be thought of more like a handicap in a game of chess. CMP tells you how good your pieces are, but its ability is limited to indicate how well you’ll use them, even if it tries to factor in things like certain countries tending to have better doctrine. Not to mention, unlike chess, how big a factor luck can be, or the role of chaos: there are mechanisms in war whereby a single minor tactical mistake can cascade into national collapse. “All for the want of a nail.”

    Even accounting for Germany’s better doctrine and all-around military effectiveness, it very easily could have used its pieces more poorly than it did. There were major revisions to its plans for invading France up to a few months before the invasion commenced, and the German generals themselves were surprised how well things went. Any sort of error there could have led to a war that looked more like the war the Anglo-French were expecting to fight, a slugfest in which CMP is all that matters.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  110. JosephB says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    It’s quite interesting–do you think that Russia could have ever been brought into the Western bloc, Anatoly?

    I’m not Anatoly, but will take a stab at it: yes. Aside from the war on terror, Bush’s biggest failing was not securing a deal with Russia. There was a ton to be gained on both sides, as Russia was also struggling with Islamic terrorism during that time. An agreement where Russia and US shared intelligence on terrorists, perhaps even with some sharing of bases would have made a ton of sense. I waited and waited, sure that something was brewing in the background.

    Then in circa 2006 there was a WSJ op-ed by a Russian elder statesman. I forget the name, but it was someone I recognized. He said he was baffled that the US was prosecuting a war on terror without trying to involve Russia. He saw several ways the two countries should be working together, but someone from the US needed to make the case. Russia was waiting, but the window was closing. It looks like Bush was still fighting the cold war.

    There was our chance to forge close ties with Russia, and declare that in the 21st century we had a common enemy. Heck, we probably could have gotten China and India involved as well. Muslim terrorists have managed to piss off a lot of people. Sadly, it was not to be.

    If I sound upset, it was because this line of reasoning occurred to me within ~60 seconds of people saying Iraq was going to be another Vietnam. It seemed obvious that we wouldn’t be fighting another superpower in a proxy war, and could even get the regional powers on our side.

    • Replies: @128
    , @AltanBakshi
    , @Tor597
  111. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I found it surprising that Saudi Arabia is significantly ahead of Israel on this ranking.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  112. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    So, France and Britain combined in 1940 were roughly an even match for Germany during this time?

  113. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    BTW, wouldn’t the Free French military have had *some* power in 1945?

  114. 128 says:
    @JosephB

    Forgot what year that was. But there was a lot of ill will generated in the Western media by the jailing of Khordokovsky and the takeover of Yukos by Putin cronies, plus the takeover of NTV and Echo of Moscow. Prior to that opinions on Russia were largely neutral to sometimes the butt of jokes, to a sense of pity over the bad 90s for Russia. Other than that, the biggest foreign policy issue in the early to mid-2000s was Russian opposition to American plans for missile defense, which also rubbed Americans the wrong way.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  115. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Would you prefer “South in the Indian Ocean” rather than “Southern Indian Ocean”. Your nitpicking is a sign of weakness. It is an open confession to the non-viability of your position.

    China would also have difficulty importing coal because the U.S. is the #1 exporter to China. Australia #2 would also be unavailable. As an actual Indian Ocean positioning, unlike your silly chart point, would cover Australia.

    Your last chart is also a confession to my position:
    • 70% of the sources have to transit the Indian Ocean.
    • 15% from a Russia? How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?
    • 2% from Venezuela? They might try to break the blockade, however they ate not a sophisticated operation and could likely be stoped by basic forces.
    • 3%” from Asia. This is a potential weak point. If a Malaysia and Indonesia cooperate small ships could sneak through from these sources.

    If CCP Elite aggression starts a war. They would likely succeed in taking Taiwan. Then the PRC economy would collapse. Chinese Workers vs. CCP Elites. I’d put money on the Workers.

    Your charts show PRC hydrocarbon imports would be “near zero” or “almost zero”. No blockade is ever perfect. Thank you for your help supporting my argument.

    PEACE 😇

  116. @Mr. XYZ

    The Saudi influence, fueled by oil money, can be seen in Russia as well. In the past 50 years, Riyadh has invested at least 76 billion euros ($86 billion) in advancing it’s reputation and interests, throughout the world. Are you surprised about these findings? Would it be so hard to imagine some of that money finding its way into a certain someones Patreon account.

    There have always been rumors that AK has links to the Dark Cardinal of the Kremlin. But perhaps the truth is more frightening and his backer is Abu Rasasa instead.

    [MORE]

    🐪🐪🐪🐪💰💰💰💰💰💰

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

  117. @JosephB

    USA had a supply base(logistic hub or something?) or two in Russia, supplying US forces in Afghanistan, but they were closed couple years ago.

  118. Max Payne says:

    I guess if its bean counting hard weapon system assets…..

    Does Saudi Arabia deserve to be number 8? Does it count when foreign mercenaries man advanced weapon systems for the dumb-dumb kingdom? Or when ABM systems can’t stop drones from the poorest Arab nation.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi/yemens-houthis-warn-of-stronger-attacks-after-drone-strikes-on-saudi-arabia-idUSKBN2BI184

    Israel could demolish Saudi Arabia in number of assets alone. Don’t assume because both countries buy F-16s that they are the same variants. You can guess which side gets the full-stock models and which side gets the export variant.

    Even if you factor population willingness for war… Gulf arabs are the most cowardly of the bunch. Did you get a cheque from the Saudi embassy in Moscow ir something?

    • Replies: @128
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  119. Kouroi says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    One never knows. It would be silly to think that the US is protesting against India’s purchase of Russian S-400 (and other Russian equipment) only for pure commercial issues…..

  120. 128 says:
    @Max Payne

    A more granular and detailed CMP with multiple indicators or dashboards may be better (if that is not too much to do).

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  121. @A123

    15% from a Russia? How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?

    Are you going to bomb Russian trains now? Do you want to consider the viability of a blockade that damages or destroys previously unaligned vessels and citizens? Do you consider the survival of enemy aircraft in China’s air defense zone to be high?

    Do you know what happened with the Lusitania and the consequences of it?

    No blockade is viable(sustaining one on Iran & North Korea is difficult enough). I’ll leave you to your ignorance of the “Chinese worker”; rest assured, it is the elite monied factions that are more pro-Western. Whatever the concerns of the CCP, it won’t be of the workers.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @songbird
  122. @128

    And for $39.99/month, I’m sure that might be possible.

    https://www.patreon.com/akarlin

  123. 128 says:

    I mean for example, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines may see no point in having a blue water navy, and just a navy good enough to secure its claims in the Spratly’s, and that suits them just fine. They may not see that point for tanker aircraft like 767s either. Countries like Colombia with COIN issues may only have a few conventional warplanes, with the bulk of their assets geared for COIN operations, in fact Mexico does not have main battle tanks or fighter jets. And Central American countries have defence budgets running in the 0.2 to 0.3 percent of GDP range, which is enough for maintaining internal security.

  124. Kouroi says:
    @A123

    And do you think that the US carrier groups and planes do not need oil? Or US allies in the region are not relying on oil as well? And that China cannot respond militarily against a blockade?

    It is well known that the moment the shooting starts, one can toss all the plans to the garbage bin…

    • Replies: @A123
  125. A123 says:

    BB claimed that only 6% of China’s coal was imported, how ever that claim has mysteriously vanished.

    Is that why China had massive rolling blackouts after cutting off Australian imports? (1)

    Millions of Chinese are suffering severe power supply problems, brownouts and blackouts. According to media reports the problems have been caused by fuel shortages, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s embargo of Australian coal imports.

    Beijing’s trade war with Australia spectacularly backfires as China is plagued by electricity woes plunging millions into darkness – after it refused delivery of $1billion of Aussie coal

    • Beijing blacklisted imports of Australian coal as part of the trade war last month
    • Some 80 ships carrying $1.1b worth of coal are sitting off the Australian coast
    • Coal prices have skyrocketed in China as domestic supply struggles to keep up
    • Now provincial governments are imposing restrictions on electricity usage
    • There are power outages and limits of heating and AC use during the cold winter

    Physical evidence indicates that that the 6% number is an Elite CCP party lie. Keep repeating party fiction though, if it makes you happy.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/18/china-suffering-mass-blackouts-following-aussie-coal-embargo/

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Blinky Bill
    , @Lin
  126. A123 says:
    @Kouroi

    And do you think that the US carrier groups and planes do not need oil? Or US allies in the region are not relying on oil as well?

    Tankers use unique paint schemes to assist with identification. Allied transports would be allowed through while enemy vessels would be intercepted.

    China cannot respond militarily against a blockade?

    How would China respond? Be specific.

    The PRC has few resources available for long range use, and no ports on the Indian Ocean.

    It is well known that the moment the shooting starts, one can toss all the plans to the garbage bin…

    So Blinky Bill’s plan for Chinese defense needs to be thrown in the garbage bin. I concur. Please tell him.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  127. @A123

    China would also have difficulty importing coal because the U.S. is the #1 exporter to China. Australia #2 would also be unavailable.

    China imports 6% of its Coal consumption. China is also the world tenth largest coal expoter. Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Philippines are also top 15 exporters. North Korea also has large reserves of coal that remain untapped for obvious reasons. You really need to check out how big Chinese and Russian coal reserves are. 😂😂😂😂

    How much of that passes through targetable railways and pipelines?

    They wouldn’t dare, there would be immediate retaliation/escalation.

    Your charts show PRC hydrocarbon imports would be “near zero” or “almost zero”. No blockade is ever perfect

    Non sequitur.

    You can’t Naval Blockade pipelines, Russian and Central Asian pipelines are particularly hard to Naval Blockade 😂😂😂😂. Even when you try it on the High Seas you won’t get all of the oil it’s impossible. The Chinese will also start to deplete there own fields at a faster rate, partially counteracting the blockade.

    I’m pretty sure that could keep it up for years if not for decades.

    I’m sure you’ve also heard of Electric Cars and High Speed Rail, all petroleum free. 😂😂😂😂.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi, Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
  128. @Kouroi

    The question was about the ethnic composition of India’s special forces, there are elite Gurkha regiments in Indian Army, but I don’t know if there are Gurkhas serving in spec ops.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  129. @Max Payne

    Yes, I’m aware. E.g., in 2010: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/arab-rearmament/

    I suppose its fun to screech, but reality is, if you start doing manual adjustments you will never stop and the index will cease to have any objective value.

    • Replies: @Max Payne
  130. @Daniel Chieh

    No blockade is viable(sustaining one on Iran & North Korea is difficult enough). I’ll leave you to your ignorance of the “Chinese worker”; rest assured, it is the elite monied factions that are more pro-Western. Whatever the concerns of the CCP, it won’t be of the workers.

    Indeed, we may well have the amusing spectacle of American pro-CPC Chapos sabotaging the US war effort from the ground up, while an Admiral Canaris or two in China feeds strategic information to the Americans.

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Boomthorkell
  131. @A123

    U.S. is the #1 coal exporter to China.

    Physical evidence indicates that this number is a Hasbara lie.

    Is that why China had massive rolling blackouts after cutting off Australian imports?

    • LOL: Tor597
  132. Dan Hayes says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I realized that when an MIT-trained Chinese-American engineer referred to Taiwan as “that renegade province”.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  133. songbird says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    what happened with the Lusitania and the consequences of it?

    Lusitania sunk May 7, 1915.
    US declared war April 6, 1917.

    A rational argument can be made that the sinking of the Lusitania delayed US entry into the war, by getting Germans to change tactics for a while and restrict their attacks. Of course, Pre-WWI America was a very different place. The state department fit into one modestly-sized building. Likely, one would not get a similar reaction now, even in Russia.

    The thing about any possible Taiwan conflict is that, it starts from a low desire to go to war. Once troops have been landed – possible before Congress even meets if paratroopers are used – that becomes a lot lower. Next stage is after Taiwanese forces have surrendered – after that, I would suppose it drops to zero.

  134. @A123

    The idea that China would ground to a halt without Western coal is an absolute joke.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @Not Raul
  135. Lester says:

    Impressive effort& post. Seems pretty much plausible.

    Have you considered using HDI (or some variation of it) instead of IQ for the sake of your CMP project being more “presentable”?

    By any chance, are Greeks, Egyptians and Algerians close to the top 30 in the current revision? And how the first two compare to Turkey?

    All have pretty large, competent and well equipped forces.

    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    , @Blade
  136. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    You think that infrastructure can move out of the way if attacked?

    Dancing Bridges 😂😂😂

    DODGING PIPELINES 😖🤓😖🤓😖

    Your proposal for physically evasive infrastructure is so bizarre, I award you the prestigious Godzilla Face palm. Come back when you can be serious. Right now you are wasting everyone’s time.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  137. @Anatoly Karlin

    I have already noticed that the Admiral here at Unz is the smartest.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  138. @Dan Hayes

    I realized that when an MIT-trained Chinese-American engineer referred to Taiwan as “that renegade province”.

    Was his name Qian Xuesen?

    [MORE]

  139. @128

    The missile defense was something the Russians wanted to get involved themselves, but the Americans kept rejecting their proposals. This led to increasing Russian frustration and opposition to the whole thing. Eventually the Americans came out around 2006 or 2007 that they wanted Georgia and Ukraine in NATO.

    There was already a history of NATO expansion despite increasing Russian opposition, and in 1999 the Yugoslav bombings and then in 2007 the Kosovo Declaration of Independence recognized by most major western powers. The loud western support for the Ukrainian Orange Revolution wasn’t popular in Moscow either.

    So basically the Russians were not involved in the war on terror, they were left out of the missile defense increasing their suspicions, and then there was a history of American efforts to include formerly Russian clients in the American sphere of interest, including a literal war of aggression. Of course they became suspicious and started to oppose any American initiatives which could be used against them.

  140. @A123

    You think that infrastructure can move out of the way if attacked?

    No, I believe in Newton’s third law of motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

    That’s why no such infrastructure shall be targeted, this isn’t Palestine and Israel we’re talking about. Retaliation is guaranteed.

    • Agree: Not Raul
  141. @128

    Numbers of Allied and German troops were equal

    True, but they weren’t equally deployed.

    From that wiki article:

    Germany had mobilised 4,200,000 men of the Heer (German Army) …. When consideration is made for those in Poland, Denmark and Norway, the Army had 3,000,000 men available for the offensive on 10 May 1940.

    France mobilised about one-third of the male population…, bringing the strength of its armed forces to 5,000,000. Only 2,240,000 of these served in army units in the north.

    So 4.2m German soldiers vs. 5.0m French soldiers, but 3.0m Germans vs. 2.2m French in the theater of battle. = 71% German concentration vs. 44% French concentration.

  142. @A123

    Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

    Long before that happens China will start sending Nuclear Scientist to Iran, to keep a vigilant eye on the Iranian Nuclear Program, to make sure their following the guidelines about Enrichment. And in a great stroke of luck, the Naval Blockade of China will be called off, just like that. 😉

    The Chinese just have to move out of the way, dance and dodge those bullets. 😂😂😂😂

    • Replies: @A123
  143. @reiner Tor

    and then there was a history of American efforts to include formerly Russian clients in the American sphere of interest

    I think this is a big one. In order to get German reunification and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Europe, the US made diplomatic commitments not to expand NATO eastward. It only took a few years for NATO to break that commitment in spades. (The US foreign policy establishment has tried to retcon this out of existence by saying “we never promised!”, meaning, I guess, there wasn’t a formal treaty, which is true, but beside the point.)

    Ironically, now the biggest threat to NATO is probably from the domestic US national populist/Trumpist constituency, who don’t see why they are signed up for nuclear war to protect Northern Macedonia.

  144. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Long before that happens China will start sending Nuclear Scientist to Iran,

    Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

    Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Which is 100% sensible as deranged Iranian aggression is an existential threat to survival.

    So your proposed retaliation is — “China will knowingly join the LOSING side of a nuclear war in the Middle East.” 🙄😱💀

    I need to look for options more dramatic than the Godzilla Face Palm. Your words may be the stupidest thing uttered in the past hundred years.

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  145. @Znzn

    Yeah, I think this is the real problem with all of these single-number metrics, though CMP is probably the best of them: there are relatively formidable militaries that are not projectable, and relatively projectable militaries that are not formidable. Even among “projectable” militaries, that really means “projectile into an adjacent country or the littoral”.

    Heck, even the vaunted US military hasn’t been able to dislodge a bunch of goat herders from Afghanistan after 20 years of trying, despite their CMP ratio being almost infinite. And they’re only able to try owing to Pakistan’s permission to run the logistical train through.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @AKAHorace
    , @reiner Tor
  146. @A123

    Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb.

    Maybe they should try a Naval blockade of Iran. I hear some Putz thinks that it’ll work real good. 😂😂😂😂

    So your proposed retaliation is — “China will knowingly join the LOSING side of a nuclear war in the Middle East.”

    Perhaps some people shouldn’t stick there noses into other people’s business. They should just stick to their core interests and not troll other nations/civilisations. It’s as if they don’t have enough on their plates to deal with already.

    😇

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @A123
  147. twice less = half. the only time AK uses a Russian expression in English, or as near as i can tell.

    does this chart work backwards? India 2020 is equivalent to US 1980? that’s certainly not accurate, but i don’t knock CMP if it’s not meant to work this way.

    Iraq is not on the list, presumably because they are occupied. but in 1991 i recall Iraq being in the lower half of the top 10 in military buildup, due to the 80s war with Iran.

    the US military defeated Iraq forces for practical purposes in about 3 days. so when people say stuff like the US Navy could sink the entire UK or France navy in like a week, that’s probably accurate. not sure if CMP speaks to that, at least in terms of speed of conflict resolution, the way ELO ratings do for chess.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  148. “The US has a rapidly narrowing window in which to win a conventional war against China.”

    not important, since there will never be such a conflict.

    “the US can maintain parity by leveraging its systems of alliances”

    i wouldn’t count on some of these nations actually fighting up to their numbers on this chart – i bet a lot of EU nations would fold under a serious attack, putting up, for practical purposes, resistance equal to about half of their rating here. these people are soft and weak from 70 years of US protection. those jets and tanks and missiles might be there, but they won’t all be used. the white flag will go up faster than expected. the US will quickly be on their own, or with only the UK and Canada still in the fight.

    “I think adding a +25% bonus to Germany’s combat effectiveness based off WW1/WW2 performance is increasingly untenable.”

    this is what i’m talking about. Germany should be downrated by -10% actually, or maybe more. in general i would downrate most EU nations by like -30% at minimum. remember, when the UK and France went after Libya in 2011, they literally ran out of bombs and missiles after like 2 weeks. they couldn’t sustain a one sided battle for longer than that. the US had to, as usual, take over completely.

    “On a more philosophical note, it is fascinating to observe fault lines harden and alliances coalesce just when critical milestones in relative military power are passed.”

    no different than the rest of life. once a woman no longer needs a certain man…once a neighborhood has enough blacks to transition to all blacks…once a company has enough market share to eliminate their competitors…once one political party has enough votes to ignore the other party…once some executive is powerful enough to fire all their enemies and take over the board…and so on. once a power tipping point is crossed, a decades long stalemate quickly ends.

  149. Not Raul says:
    @Blinky Bill

    I wonder if China has plants that can convert coal to oil and/or synthetic rubber, like Germany and South Africa did.

  150. “As such, I have converged all rich, high IQ countries, NATO members, Russia, China, and India to the first technological rank”

    not a good assumption, for India anyway. Indians are way less capable. 1980 US probably overruns 2020 India in 2 weeks max. they’re garbage at war, and at nuts and bolts stuff in general. it would only take half the US military to completely smash India.

    the Suez canal was blocked for a week by a vessel being operated by an incompetent crew of Indians. they have trouble figuring out plumbing. anybody who has worked with Indians for a few years realizes how much they suck at the exact stuff white guys are extremely good at – building and operating real stuff.

    “In later editions of the CMP, I plan to do away with “cultural factors” (“south”, “clannish”, “feats”) in general, and replace them with IQ scores”

    ok, so why would you uprate Indian forces to US, Russia, and China forces, when Indians are clearly dumb?

    but yes, that’s really all that matters now – the intelligence level of the defense contractors. there won’t be any big conventional battles ever again. we’re in a world where only missiles, subs, and drones matter. spacecraft will probably be a decisive advantage when SpaceX gets weaponized. i’m less confident that even some of the aircraft matter much anymore.

    • Replies: @ravin' lunatic
  151. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Perhaps some people shouldn’t stick there noses into other people’s business.

    This is great advice to the CCPutz Elites in Beijing, but I do not think they will take it.

    Maybe they should try a Naval blockade of Iran. I hear some Putz thinks that it’ll work real good

    You think Putz China should try a Naval blockade of Iran. Is this simultaneous with Putz China aiding Iran?

    Yet more crazy flailing on your part. 😆😆😆😆😆

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  152. Not Raul says:
    @reiner Tor

    Who is the Admiral?

    Admirals do tend to be smart, see: Nimitz, Mullen, McRaven, etc.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  153. @Not Raul

    SmoothieX12, the man who can calculate the details of SAM trajectories with just a slide, a piece of paper and his huge brain.

  154. iffen says:
    @Wency

    Meaning that the average Confederate state was able to muster roughly double the manpower of the entire peacetime US Army.

    Doesn’t amount to anything when we are talking about musket and bayonet charges against fortified positions defended by soldiers with repeating rifles.

  155. iffen says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    had the Western Allies signed a peace treaty with Germany

    Well, dem Jews and the commies in the U. S. bureaucracy put the kibosh on that.

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
    , @reiner Tor
  156. Max Payne says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    CE is the “total factor productivity,” or how effectively L and K are used, and is a proxy for combat effectiveness value. This is a multiple of the technology level (T); of Troop Quality (Q); and of a cultural factor (C).

    No need for manual adjustments. Can this not also be a negative modifier?

    Even with high tech toys how can KSA score so high… Or Israel so low compared to KSA.

    Does $39 a month buy 15 CMP points?

    Addition:. Israels space assets alone must be worth something.

  157. iffen says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I was in Japan in the early 70’s when I was in the military. Many of the people in the sector that catered to the U. S. military were fine people. I loved the children practicing their English on us.
    When I ventured out from the “zone” the people were cordial but it was clear that some of them wouldn’t piss on me if I was on fire.

  158. SafeNow says:

    The diversity pitch in the U.S. military began with Jonesy, the clever sonar operator in Red October. Soon, every recruit thought he would be Jonesy. Half the diversity kids playing high school basketball think they will be in the NBA. They are of course not. But sadly, many in the military are indeed given NBA-hard specialties. During WW II, my dad managed to score very high on the IQ test in the Army Air Corps. He was sent to Europe to brief and debrief pilots. Pure merit.

  159. @A123

    Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

    Israel has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Khameni from obtaining a nuclear bomb. Which is 100% sensible as deranged Iranian aggression is an existential threat to survival.

    Touché.

    Just to bring you up to date on current affairs.

    China has made it clear that it will use as “any means necessary” to stop sociopath Tsai Ing-wen from obtaining Independence . Which is 100% sensible as deranged Taiwanese behavior is an existential threat to survival of a Unified China.

    How determined are the Israelis and what means do they have?

    They would likely succeed in taking Taiwan.

    It’s clear to the whole world how determined the Chinese are. Yet you seem to think that they have the means but not the will. Meshugener!

    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  160. Max Payne says:

    Egypt is also missing. Last I checked its military was substantially stronger than UAE (the only thing I know about the UAE military is they bought those expensive LeClerc tanks to only abandon them in Yemen).

    Egypt is approaching 1300 M1A1 Abrams, not a small number….

    Shit Egypt has licensed factories to produce weapons from tanks to AKs. UAE has zero factories.

    How…..

    • Replies: @Mr. XYZ
  161. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    What do you think would have happened had D-Day failed?

    By the way, wouldn’t the Free French military power in 1945 be greater than 0.00?

    • Replies: @houston 1992
  162. Mr. XYZ says:
    @Max Payne

    I’d also like to see data for Hungary vs. Romania.

    • Replies: @Max Payne
  163. Mr. XYZ says:
    @iffen

    Just “dem Jews and the commies in the U. S. bureaucracy”? No one else?

  164. @128

    An important factor here that is not calculated, justifiably, in CMP that influenced the outcome of the German invasion of France is simple politics. Much of the French military elite were Fascist (in the actual, historical sense) and were not terribly fond of Republican corruption (as they saw it.) They preferred the (Nazi) Germans, misguided or not, and so deliberately fumbled the defense. Poland, whose military was not compromised, put up a much better per capita fight.

    So, between a loyal military with low CMP (Poland), and a disloyal, collaborationist military with high or comparable CMP, one is going to lose either way, ha ha ha.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  165. Tor597 says:
    @JosephB

    The west was never going to make peace with Russia. Read Mackinder to know why.

    Basically, Russia is a land bridge between Europe and Asia and the west wants to prevent a land bridge between these two regions at all cost.

    By blocking land routes between the two regions, the west is able to control Asia through straits.

  166. Tor597 says:

    It’s interesting how well China, Russia, and Iran fit together. I don’t think there is a single configuration the west can bring forth that could beat this group.

    This is beyond just resource countries meeting an industrial country.

    For instance, Chinese propaganda is really bad but Iran is excellent at propaganda. China should just outsource propaganda to Iran and let them make their content.

  167. @Tor597

    Only Japan would (join any fight on behalf of the US) because it has no choice. South Korea won’t. They are only concerned about peace on the Korean Peninsula

    • Replies: @Tor597
  168. Truth says:
    @JohnPlywood

    No.

    This war will be fought with propaganda. Just say for instance that once side takes over the other side’s political structure and institutes a PR campaign that gets the other side to take a shot that alters its DNA and eventually kill themselves.

    Then the hypothetical first side just invades a year or two later when the damage is done and the richer, more powerful side has a large percentage of its population dying of a disease.

    I mean, it would never happen, but just theoretically…

  169. songbird says:

    Looking at the power chart, makes me think back to the ’80s.

    There were some Hollywood films that were made with the assistance of the US military, that were evidently meant to make joining the military seem glamorous. Top Gun (1986) with Tom Cruise was probably the most famous. Stripes (1981) The Hunt for Red October (1990).

    Looking some over, what is funny is that I see some were made outside the US but with the assistance of Israelis, like Delta Force (1986, with Chuck Norris) or Iron Eagle (1986) or Rambo III (1988).

    Did the Soviet Union ever make action movies like that, or did the draft obviate the need for them? What are the best Russian or Chinese military propaganda/action films? Can we expect better Chinese action movies, as China closes the gap?

  170. Znzn says:

    In 1990 and 1995, France had 2 carriers and a blue water navy, plus nukes and a veto at the Security Council, Germany does not.

    • Replies: @songbird
  171. @Znzn

    When the US decided to anger Beijing and Taipei by giving administration of the Diayou islands to Japan – the navy of China was nowhere near any capability. That MDT is stupid. Stupid for both sides – including Japan. Getting dragged into a conflict for uninhabited islands much closer to Taiwan and Mainland China than it is to Japan’s main islands is simply stupid. Japan is being used as a tool.

    • Agree: Badger Down
  172. @Caspar Von Everec

    Good comment – but I think you vastly overrate the capabilities of the Rafales jets…

  173. @Europe Europa

    Funny you say this. I am reading a book on Jackie Kennedy and during her trip to the subcontinent in the early 60s she quipped that Pakistani men are more manlier than Indians who seem docile and too eager to please. On a side note I have written this everywhere- temperature, climate and diet must also be taken into account, and I think it has more impact on individuals and cultures than given credit for. Pakistanis have more than three-time the meat consumption compared to India. Could this also be a factor?

    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  174. AKAHorace says:
    @Blade

    I suspect even Iran could hold off India.

    Well yes, as the Indians would have to go through Pakistan to get to them. Absolute military power is not too important, what matters more is the particular war that is being fought. For most of the countries listed geography makes all of these questions academic.

  175. @prime noticer

    india does, in some fields, punch well above its nominal IQ weight because they do have a smart fraction from several of the top caste cake layers. that said, the lack of cohesion in indian society greatly limits the consistency and quality of even their efforts

    • Agree: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @RJ Macready
  176. @Lester

    Greece, Egypt and Algeria being behind UAE, Singapore, Netherlands, Colombia makes this list a joke. Surely, when you crunch the numbers you have to run your eye over the results to check how reasonable they are.

  177. AKAHorace says:
    @Almost Missouri

    there are relatively formidable militaries that are not projectable, and relatively projectable militaries that are not formidable

    Agree with this completely. It might be more useful to compare countries on attack and defence.

    Heck, even the vaunted US military hasn’t been able to dislodge a bunch of goat herders from Afghanistan after 20 years of trying,

    Is this a military or political problem though ? The Americans seemed able to fight the Taliban themselves put cannot set up an Afghani govt that can defend itself.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  178. Malenfant says:
    @A123

    How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing? Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

    You don’t understand human nature in the slightest.

    Let’s say everything goes exactly as you imagine: It is a time of war. The seas are blockaded. China can no longer import oil. The population feels the pinch.

    Who do you think they will blame for this? Their own government, which actually enjoys a surprisingly broad level of public support, or the Americans who are actually responsible?

    I’m reminded of the words of the good ship Arbitrary, just before it left Earth:

    We each had to think of one word to describe humanity; Man, the species. Some people thought it was silly, just on principle, but the majority joined in. There were suggestions like ‘precocious’, ‘doomed’, ‘murderous’, ‘inhuman’, and ‘frightening’. Most of us who’d been on-planet must have been falling under the spell of humanity’s own propaganda, because we tended to come up with words like ‘inquisitive’, ‘ambitious’, ‘aggressive’, or ‘quick’. Li’s own suggestion to describe humanity was ‘MINE!’, but then somebody thought to ask the ship. It complained about being restricted to one word, then pretended to think for a long time, and finally came up with ‘gullible’.

    ‘Gullible?’ I said.

    ‘Yeah,’ said the remote drone. ‘Gullible… and bigoted.’

    ‘That’s two words,’ Li told it.

    ‘I’m a fucking starship; I’m allowed to cheat.’

    Gullible… and bigoted. Most will believe what their government tells them. Most will naturally be inclined to blame the foreigners in any case. (And rightly so where the Chinese are concerned, because, in your scenario, the Americans are indeed the responsible party.)

    For every Chinaman that seeks to topple his own government and become a citizen of Globohomo, there will be ten or twenty who seek recruiting offices or try and contribute to the war effort in other ways. China will be electrified, just as the US was after Pearl Harbor, or even more so.

  179. Tor597 says:
    @showmethereal

    Nah, Japan won’t enter into any war with China.

    It’s one thing to send some token troops to Iraq along with Money.

    But Japan isn’t stupid. They aren’t going to join a war in their own back yard against a stronger foe when American resolve/strength is in question.

  180. Lin says:
    @Vishnugupta

    I fully understand your sentiments:
    Some data:
    India/China/Pakistan army manpower: 1.4 million/975,000/550,000–India army is almost as big as china and Pakistan putting together
    Mind you that a full scale ground war in the Himalaya is very unlikely. Fact is India has very severe un/under employment problem and the India army is one of the govt agencies besides civil service, railway.. that can provide (indian standard)livable wage and pension. Indian and Chinese military spendings according to SIPRI are respectively 2.4-2.5% and 1.9% and yet the indian military only spends something like 20–25%of their budget on weapon acquisition. So something are to be sacrified, like ammos stockpile and weapon R&D(overlooked by casual observers).
    –The India Light Fighter Aircraft LCA program which many rakshaks of bharat take great pride was started officially in 1983; if I remember right so far only 10-16 LCAs were deployed.
    –What is the most basic weapon any armed force should have? Might I say rifle? Yet the Indian army decided to replace their indigenous but disappointing INSAS rifles with AK203–a version of the 1947 vintage AK47.
    –Strange enough, the India navy acquired its first aircraft carrier(from UK)in 1961, 6 years before it got its diesel-electric submarine from USSR in 1967; yet the indian army complained that during the 1962 china-India border war, the indian army only had 0.303 Lee Enfield bolt-action rifles while the Chinese had semi-automatic. The only rationale is that an aircraft carrier is very visible ‘Bharat-Uday/India shinning’ optics while submarines usually submerged out of sight.

    https://www.mod.gov.in/sites/default/files/AR1718.pdf
    “..”Indian Army is one of the biggest recruiters in the country which recruits almost 60,000 youths into the Army each year. ………and approximately 55 lakh aspirants have applied online through the directorate of Recruiting website” http://www.joinindianarmy.nic.in. …’ (55 lakh=5.5 millions)

    • Replies: @Lin
  181. Lin says:
    @Lin

    Excuse me :

    Indian and Chinese military spendings according to SIPRI are respectively 2.4-2.5% and 1.9%

    should be

    Indian and Chinese military spendings according to SIPRI are respectively 2.4-2.5% and 1.9% of GDP

  182. IronForge says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Obviously, this is Amateur Hour.

    Author is not a Military Veteran. IIRC, he doesn’t hold any applicable Formalized Training in Military Matters.

    Went to his Blog to look things up.

    Does the Author even have a Degree?

    I, on the Other Hand, am a Veteran US Naval Officer who grew up in the Front Lines of the Cold War. My Late Father served 20 Years Active from 1941-60s, then served 20+ Years Post Retirement in the Auxillary Fleet until the Mid 80s.

    I Participated in the US Naval Gulf Convoys during the IRQ-IRN War, then rotated to Shore in 1989 to engage in the MIC Contracting and Industrial Production side of the War Machine.

    Very Difficult to Quantify Strengths of Conventional Forces. I don’t expect Insider Amateurs like RAND to Accomplish it.

    Also, One “Can’t Accurately Compare” Strengths of Major Forces unless they’re Set to Face Each Other.

    The USA and GBR Militaries are Imperial/Expansionists. They have Blue Water Navies and access to theirs and their “Allies’” Bases abroad. The US_Navy have been heavily dependent on Carrier Strike Groups and have Amphibious Assault Fleets if needed. The US Army and their Air Corps (Only the Army and the Navy were Established by Congress – ^_^ – their Tactical Responsibilities often involve Ground Support, Air Superiority for Boots on Ground, Bombing Enemy Ground Assets, and Moving Ground Troops) require Months to Send Over Assets to Fight Regional Wars.

    GBR have diminished Power Projection Capabilities since WWII – they can defend themselves from most Hypothetical Aggressors; but their Footprint in Asia and the Subcontinent have been overshadowed.

    FRA have a Blue Water Navy; but are stuck in the Mire of Ex-Colonies.

    CHN are just rolling out a Blue Water Navy. They Plan on building a Globe Traversing Navy; but they don’t have to. Their Warhawks can take out+take over TWN, PHL, AUS, and NZL (Unfinished Business from the GBR Colonial Days including Opium Wars); and NO ONE can stop them. They’re well Positioned to Fight a Defensive-War and Project Outwards.

    Murica and GBR can no longer Contain and Intimidate the CHN_PLA within Island Chain Boundaries – those Atoll/Island Bases Destroyed those Policies.

    CHN_PLA’s Missile Batteries are Noteworthy. DF-21s and others. They were recently spotted making ranged TBM/Supersonic Missile Targeting Runs on MockUps of USA AirBases in Okinawa, Japan.

    Murica can’t defeat CHN_PLA in the SouthWesternPacific+Oceania; and CHN can’t defeat Murica along the Western Coastline of North and South America.

    RUS probably have the Strongest Conventional Forces On Hand. They have the Cruise, Theater_Ballistic, Anti-Ship, and Hypersonic Missiles that can take out All Other Nation-State Forces and Civil Infrastructure while coming out relatively unscathed. They have plenty of Real Estate where their Army will fend off any Invaders. Their Naval Fleets are smaller than their SUN Days; but their Missiles don’t require them to Venture Out very far.

    Amateur Hour. Each “Polar Power” have their Distinct Conventional Defensive and Force Projection Policies; and can’t be simply quantified.

    Amateur Hour. Author’s Assessments ot the USA Military relative to RUS and CHN are WAY Off.

    Don’t feel too bad. US Service Academy Graduates like Yours Truly consider RAND and STRATFOR to be Amateur Hack Outfits.

  183. Funniest story ever! A Tory thug, quoted in the Excresscence, declaring that the UK’s extra nukes (contrary to the NPT-so much for the ‘Rules Based International Order’!)were for use against China!!?? If they made a ‘land grab’ in Africa or Russia (!!!???) they might be thrown out by conventional means (what planet is this lunatic on?) but if not, then nukes it will have to be. It is truly amazing what race and cultural HATRED can do to little, but infinitely vicious, ‘minds’.

    • Replies: @profnasty
  184. @ravin' lunatic

    Trust me- I am an Indian, born and brought up, and have been living here for 36 years. The problem is a myriad of factors. Lack of cohesion is down to the fact that every state is pretty much as different as a nation. India is like Europe in that regard- a whole bunch of different cultures bunched under a nation(a lot of which have been outrightly annexed by the Indian state). The north easterners look more chinese than Indian, south Indians are dark skinned and might as well be from a different region on earth compared to the northerners. Languages, cuisine, culture-it is all different for every state, and in the major cities you see them all enmeshed. To make matters worse religion plays an absurdly huge role in the day to day life and politics. I get attacked by Christians here but there’s a reason religion as a concept is terrible and outdated. It should, at the very least, be removed from state and politics. Religion has ruined the masses here.

    Then, as I mentioned above, the temperate climate, diet(delicious but unhealthy and non nourishing) and georgraphy(self-contained and sufficient) probabaly impacts a lot, and through generations and centuries probably has changed the genetic of the average Indian(for the worse). Finally, child-rearing is hopeless-I can write an essay on this. The Indian is born and reared to be subservient and without any sense of agency.

    India is what the world is headed to with its multicultural ideals. This is what prolong multiculturalism does to a system.

    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  185. @Tor597

    China’s military is defensive, the USA’s aggressive, expansionist and Imperial. And China will have technological surprises aplenty if the USA attacks. China’s civil defense is far better organised, too. You’d say that the West would have to be mad to attack China, but they are Blanche-they are.

    • Replies: @Orville H. Larson
  186. Malenfant says:
    @IronForge

    Obviously, this is Amateur Hour.

    Author is not a Military Veteran. IIRC, he doesn’t hold any applicable Formalized Training in Military Matters.

    Went to his Blog to look things up.

    Does the Author even have a Degree?

    Extremely gay, cringe, and smoothbrained take.

    Karlin, whether you agree with him or not, is one of the world’s more noteworthy and interesting “public intellectuals.” This project, which would be the foundations of a well-received PhD thesis in most places, is a hobby for him.

    Degrees themselves are a dime a dozen, and most of them aren’t worth the paper they were printed on. Yours, for instance, clearly either isn’t worth a damn, or was awarded in error.

    The rest of your post is Military Analysis 101. Thoroughly trite. Nothing interesting; nothing we haven’t all heard and seen a thousand times before. Writing it was a waste of your time, and reading it was a waste of ours.

    • Disagree: Herald
    • Replies: @Max Payne
    , @IronForge
  187. GMC says:

    American and Nato troops in Afghanistan aren’t there to win a war = dope, rare earth mining, geography, stop OBOR, and just hang out.
    Colombia with 7 US/Nato bases = dope and geography
    Mid East = create a M E Union for Israel, train and use proxy armies, steal natural resources , geography, etc.
    Ukraine = Ru. geography, steal the farmland, train another proxy army, etc.
    It’s always been the same game for the bankers, globalists, MIC, Zionists/Bolsheviks. and government traitors. World currency owners sell out to these psychopaths every time and the people of the world suffer – immeasurably. All alternate websites should be covering the US proxy Ukraine army build up on the Donbas border and write articles defending Donbas, Crimea, and expose another US War Crime. As Anatoly has been doing.

  188. Lin says:
    @A123

    Some 80 ships carrying $1.1b worth of coal are sitting off the Australian coast

    I usually don’t respond to certain stupid claims but this is entertaining
    Coal price is about $70/ton; $1.1 billion means about 15 million tons. And china produced 3.9 billion tons of coal in 2020.
    Massive black out? I would agree if that referred to your neurological functions

  189. @IronForge

    What’s with the Capital Letters?

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  190. Max Payne says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    Thats not my point. How can a country that has no real military get listed in top 30 but a legit military (arguably stronger than Saudi Arabia by multiple metrics) not even be listed.

    Its almost… As if… Someone just copy/pasted a list and changed it slightly. A bad list.

    Columbia is listed but not Egypt.

    Cocaine > 1,300 M1A1s + American/Russian licensed weapons factories + a strong miltary junta government

    Bruh……

    • Agree: Fred777
  191. El Dato says:
    @A123

    How long can the Elite CCP keep down the people of China after the oil stops flowing? Economic collapse and civil war are near inevitable outcomes.

    > Thinking this will be a repeat of USA vs Japan-in-Manchuria.
    > Ascribing to China mental derangements like internal instability and the demand for “freedom to buy stuff” that afflict Western regimes.

    I envision the CCP going full coal just for giggles, driving the blockading Global Warmers nuts. The Democratist Regimes will Greta themselves and sign the armistice.

  192. Dan Hayes says:
    @songbird

    Some time back, the quasi-pacifist “What Price Glory” was found to inadvertently spur enlistment!

    • Thanks: songbird
  193. iffen says:
    @IronForge

    Wow!

    If you are a Naval Academy Graduate, we are in much worse shape than I thought.

  194. Chinaman says:

    What is the significance of conventional warfare in the age of hypersonic missiles and precision strikes?

    Any target on the ground, sea or space can be destroyed by uninterceptible missiles that are guided by satellites .

    I think all weapons will become obsolete in 10 years with AI, 5G and robotics. We won’t need marines but DOTA players.

    • Replies: @CCZ
  195. Chinaman says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Wumaos want to invade Taiwan, Real Chinaman wants to goto Tokyo.

    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Troll: Tor597
    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  196. @RJ Macready

    Obviously, Pak is full of Jatts & Pathans (Scythian & Hun)

    It’d be right to say NW India is manly (genetically closer to Iran than UP)

    While the rest deserve another 5000 years of “Aryan domination”

    Randi Jhoota Mac Ready why comment on politics when you don’t carry a sword?

  197. @songbird

    Imagine if Hungary had foreign bases, and then imagine if Hungary’s national IQ were 1 SD lower.

    Sounds like the US × 1000.

  198. @Tor597

    Especially since China is MUCH more powerful now than it was in 1931.

  199. @songbird

    …I’m skeptical of the potentiality for a great power war because of nukes. Also, other reasons, like economic fallout, and political risks.

    We did a pretty good job of avoiding one after WW2.

    Not much comparison, I think, between WWII gen and today. Rampant psychopathy in Western (((government))), low IQ, low education, perverted ideology and propaganda, huge egos, and infinite greed virtually guarantee nuclear WWIII.

  200. @Europe Europa

    I bet these island monkeys are still doing those ww2 jokes. They deserve all that delicious karma.

  201. padre says:
    @Mr. XYZ

    USA never attacked anyone, except in self-defense! It should be clear to you by now!

  202. @Chinaman

    I very much believe that if and when America falls, the non western countries will have no need to anymore, to ape and imitate western forms of government and ruling, all world can then return to their roots, it will be like a collective straightjacket has been lifted from the body of humanity. No more lipservice for alien thoughts and ideas!

    When such time comes, maybe emperor led system of Chinese governing can return, then it’s imperative that Japan is defeated and the King of Japan will prostrate before the Son of Heaven and admit that he is only Wang and never has any of his ancestors been a Huang Di. After such episode Japanese will learn their rightful place. One can dream…

    • Replies: @lauris71
    , @Chinaman
  203. @AKAHorace

    It might be more useful to compare countries on attack and defence.

    Yes, I was thinking that too, but how? The virtue of Karlin’s CMP is that a somewhat useful output can be consistently derived from relatively few, readily available inputs without a lot of sub-analysis and second-guessing. What are the relatively simple inputs that distinguish offense from defense?

    Is this a military or political problem though ? The Americans seemed able to fight the Taliban themselves put cannot set up an Afghani govt that can defend itself.

    Yeah, it was a little unfair of me to say, since

    1) the US military successfully overthrew the Taliban and routed/destroyed the foreign jihadis (the original purpose of the invasion) in a matter of weeks, back in 2001-2002,

    2) the US military operates under political/ethical/media constraints that don’t apply to the other side, and

    3) since 2002, it is no longer clear what exactly the objective of the Afghan War is supposed to be. Just keep being there, apparently. So yeah, it’s more of a political void camouflaged under military trappings.

    BTW, “projectile into an adjacent country or the littoral” in my previous post was supposed to be “projectable” before autocorrect got involved.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
    , @AKAHorace
  204. @prime noticer

    i don’t knock CMP if it’s not meant to work this way

    I think it is meant to work that way, where “work” means “take a few publicly available inputs (GDP, manpower, etc.) and consistently convert them into a meaningful output.”

    Everybody here saying, “yeah but what about this situation, what about that situation”, … well, they’re not wrong to say that, but which input would you change and how would you change it to get a more meaningful result? Far fewer comments address that.

    • Replies: @Znzn
    , @Marckus
  205. Znzn says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Nukes and security council veto give 100 percent bonus?

    • LOL: Almost Missouri
  206. Znzn says:

    If nukes are not so important to national power, why would China insist on having nukes at a time when it still had a per capita income equivalent to Burkina Faso? Or why do countries like Brazil and India find it so important to campaign to get a veto at the UN Security Council?

  207. gnbRC says:

    Ultimately, virtually all aspects of success leverage around average IQ, and correlations become much better still when groups are considered, such as work groups, nations, or – presumably – military organizations.

    Perhaps the above statement given in methodologies changes is true, but it’s difficult to say (as the author relates). At the same time, I don’t believe culture is a main factor, albeit cultures having a stubborn, sadistic bent would create a lot of [local] havoc at the outbreak of any hostilities.

    However, it may be that Mr Karlin is searching for ‘experiential capability’ rather than ‘intellectual capability’, as a system based on IQ implies. Having been in ‘forever’ wars, the US probably has the most experiential capability in actual hostilities, but at the same time have a ‘hollowed out’ fighting force and perhaps a relatively ‘technologically conventional’ weapons arsenal that is potentially subject to a change in weapons technology. It may come down to the ‘experiential IQ’ and new weapon technologies of a small section of any one country’s military resources as the major determinant of who is ‘strongest’ in a fight.

    It seems certain that the US military was/is virtually unprepared for biowarfare, and it’s also likely that they are unprepared for high power/high frequency electromagnetic/sonic warfare – especially at the fighting force resources level.

  208. profnasty says:
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Please don’t minimize the importance of racial pride and prejudice. It’s really the excressant bailiwick of America’s pre-eminence.
    Russia is, by nature, a White Christian nation; hence our sworn enemy.
    China sees global economic competition lethal as a prison fight.
    Military sucks the life’s blood from the domestic, peaceful, economy. But at least (they) support the value of our American dollar. Salute!

  209. kemerd says:

    Tip for you Karlin: the more parameters a model have, the more likely it would produce nonsense. Your results look like pure nonsense.

    Also for what purpose this index is prepared? For an all out war, it is irrelevant as all countries involved and most not-involved will be destroyed. For anything other than this, your charts are meaningless as the outcome will very much depend on configuration of forces near the fronts.

    Your prediction of the outcome of Az-Ar war is just a lucky break as it did not involve an all-out war between these two countries; and it also shows how quality of command is so much important in limited warfare.

  210. Rich says:
    @22pp22

    Removing the Baathists from power in Iraq and removing the Taliban from power in Afghanistan as well as occupying both countries for almost 20 years, is a win. Sorry. I don’t believe the US lost a single battle in either invasion.. Do you think the Russian withdrawal from Georgia was a defeat? There are many problems with the US military, and the left is creating even more, destroying morale with pro blm, anti-White propaganda and its pro homosexual agenda, but the US still has a large number of combat vets and young men who like to fight.

    • Replies: @profnasty
    , @22pp22
  211. profnasty says:
    @Boomthorkell

    In a protracted non-nuclear war, there will be rifle fights on America’s streets. That’s a given.
    For nuclear war, well, insert joke here.

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
  212. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Thanks for that observation that the Chinese people have never resisted the Elite CCP.

    Oh Wait…. What about this… A friendly ode to the CCP Elites? (1)

    Huge Hong Kong protests continue [even] after the government postpones controversial bill

    Protesters say they want the bill to be scrapped and are calling for the city’s chief executive to resign.

    It seems to me, and all other rational human beings, that Chinese workers understand that their plight has much to do with mismanagement of the CCP Elite and their shills.

    PEACE 😇
    _________

    (1) https://www.vox.com/world/2019/6/16/18680897/huge-hong-kong-protests-continue-after-the-government-postpones-controversial-bill

     

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Blinky Bill
  213. MarkNiet says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    1945: Germany 4.04. Even in 45, the struggle for an ideal continued: to fight against Zionism.

  214. Z-man says:

    Izrael is the world’s true Super Power. With their pernicious control of the American government, world finance thru their shylocks and theft of technology and nuclear bombs, they can’t be beaten. In a war between the Chinks and the dopey Americans Satan’s spawn will latch on to the victor, the parasites they are.
    Trump, with all his Zionist flaws, still was the best thing for white nationalism and Christian European civilization including his admiration for Vladimir. Putin Trump Axis…it would have been glorious.

    • LOL: Jatt Aryaa
  215. profnasty says:
    @Rich

    Saddam was the perfect leader for Iraq. A good man.
    Our destruction of Iraq was a vile war crime. But hey, that’s what we’re good at.
    Libya, dollar war. O.Ghadaffi one of the greatest leaders of his century.
    Afghanistan. Oil war, Caspian.
    The Taliban was a legit gov. I only won’t support them because of the Bamiyan Buddhas. BLM bastards.
    Why didn’t you heroes defend our S. Border like Trump asked you to? Where were you on 911? Why didn’t you defend the USS Liberty?
    Maybe I’m wrong. May the road rise with you.

    • Replies: @Rich
  216. Rich says:
    @profnasty

    Commenting on the facts that the US defeated both the Iraqi government and Afghan government and still controls both countries, isn’t hero worship. I think Jeff Davis was a great leader for Dixie, Lincoln still beat him. Many anti-American folks are unable to see clearly when it comes to America. Whether or not an invasion is legal or illegal, victory can still be had. I might even agree that both occupations are unnecessary and securing the Southern border more important, doesn’t change reality. The US defeated Iraq and Afghanistan.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @profnasty
  217. 22pp22 says:
    @Rich

    The Rhodesians won every battle, be we were still left with Zimbabwe.

    Great swathes of Afghanistan are under Taliban control. I do not call that a comprehensive victory. And the moment the occupiers leave, their ‘victory’ will turn to dust.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @AP
    , @Rich
  218. iffen says:
    @22pp22

    Great swathes of Afghanistan are under Taliban control. I do not call that a comprehensive victory.

    You must remember that there are plenty of Americans who do not believe that we lost the Vietnam War.

    • Agree: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @AP
  219. There is military power, theater of conflict, projection of military power and resupply of troops.
    The only country in the world that wants war is only US.
    Considering all those four factors US has no chance to win a war against China and Russia.
    Even US war against Iran is kind of risky.
    Than we have to open the destruction factor.
    US can cause considerable destruction Io Iran and China.
    Russia can cause far more destruction to US than US to Russia.

  220. lauris71 says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Interestingly we have kind of precedent from recent past. When Soviet Union dissolved, all constituent republics quickly moved back to their “natural” form of society:
    Baltics – German-like workaholic countries
    Central Asia – khanates and sultanates
    Russia, Belarus, Ukraine – moderately corrupt and authoritarian bureaucracies
    Caucasus – well, like Caucasus

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  221. Marckus says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Before I comment let me assure the snowflakes on UR that I have temporarily set aside my nasty habit of trolling and deliberately upsetting the usual suspects.

    Well, Missouri, I got to your comment, number 218 before I sat up in my chair. FINALLY, I said, someone asked about changing the matrices to produce a meaningful output.

    The fact is there can be no meaningful input and thus no meaningful output that will ever successfully predict the outcome of a conflict one way or the other.

    The only meaningful outcome is who wins and who loses and that can never be predicted before or even during a conflict. There are far too many variables the worst or the best being the human element, the ones in the field and the ones in politics.

    To say “what about this and what about that” makes for interesting but meaningless discussion suitable for when Bill and the Boyz get together for an Acme beer and chicken wings. Other than that it is conjecture that is tested and proved successful or disaster only in battle.

    The War does not always go to the side with the most equipment or men. History has shown this time and time again.

    There seems to be a lot of speculation recently about the China/ Russia alliance and what a disadvantage this seems to be for the US. Here is another morsel of speculation. China and Russia are diverse nations. Will their alliance hold ? It has fallen apart in the past . As time goes by and things get eventful will one or the other decide this alliance in not in their best interests. WHO knows !

    The US has a dog in this fight and which other dogs will join it. No amount of waxing over “inputs” and “what ifs” can serve as a crystal ball for any meaningful prediction. I do not believe the author ever intended this but a lot of people here seem to have been carried away by the statistics and adding their own assumptions, biases, speculations and conclusions have hopelessly muddled an activity, war, an activity that is in and of itself, and all by itself a muddled affair.

    Missouri, your comment was great and thought provoking.

    • LOL: Jatt Aryaa
  222. AP says:
    @22pp22

    USA is capable of utterly destroying another country’s military, government and infrastructure. This I think means it is militarily unbeatable. It is not capable of governing the places it has conquered. That is not a problem with the military. USA completely defeated Iraq and Afghanistan. But it has failed to occupy them effectively. To do so probably requires skills and attributes the USA lacks, but these are not military problems.

  223. AP says:
    @iffen

    We lost the war but this was not due to a military defeat.

    • Agree: Jatt Aryaa
    • Replies: @iffen
  224. @lauris71

    They still imitate external forms of Western liberal government, which is not good thing from the viewpoint of Hegelian dialectics, they have a systemic opening or hole in their defences against external pressure. Internally they can’t become what they are. For a world to become free, America must die. When that happens the apparition that is the liberal order will fade away.

  225. @A123

    The Sackler’s new opium war: Exporting the addiction crisis to China

    [MORE]

    As the People’s Republic of China’s economy grows and integrates more fully into global commerce, so does the risk to its people’s health. To meet the new demand for cancer and pain medications, China has had to harmonize its pharmaceutical regulatory structures with Western ones and beef-up its investment in innovative biotech research and production.

    But by opening up to western drug companies and streamlining the approval process for new drugs, the world’s second largest pharmaceutical market is being used as a dumping ground for controversial drugs, posing a significant public health risk and opening old wounds dating back centuries.

    Hospitals all over North America have pulled back their prescriptions for the popular painkiller OxyContin, after Purdue Pharma, owned by the billionaire Sackler family, was faced with a landslide of lawsuits on behalf of over 400,000 U.S. patients who died as a result of overdoses.

    Millions more, many working-class Americans, have had their lives ruined by addiction to the prescription drug. But in China, big pharmaceutical conglomerates are just getting started and their sales are increasing exponentially.

    Telling lies, pushing pills

    In 2007, Purdue Pharma paid $634.5 million in penalties after the company’s lawyers filed a guilty plea to federal charges of wrongly marketing OxyContin in the U.S. But the Sackler family, owners of both Purdue Pharma and its global affiliate, Mundipharma, have not given up. In fact, they have only intensified their sales of the controversial drug in countries like China.

    According to a recent Associated Press investigation, Sackler’s Chinese affiliate has been telling Chinese doctors that OxyContin is less addictive than other drugs on the market, falsifying documents and having sales personnel visit hospitals posing as doctors to gain access to patients. These are the very same misleading marketing techniques which resulted in federal charges being brought against Purdue for creating the deadliest opioid crisis in U.S. history.

    The use of OxyContin by Chinese doctors has increased in recent years to the tune of more than 20%, according to the China Pharmaceutical Industry Association. A popular painkiller for cancer and post-surgical patients, prescriptions for OxyContin were twice that of growth in the overall pharmaceutical market in China since 2016.

    Addiction was a serious political problem facing China during the 19th and early 20th centuries, thanks to British, French, and U.S. traders hell-bent on making as much profit as possible selling Turkish and Indian opium in China. As a result, Chinese drug regulations have historically been strict, but all that has changed in a relatively short period of time.

    Two years ago, the Economist published a piece that rather ham-fistedly admitted “China and Britain see each other through a narcotic haze.” This typically euphemistic turn of phrase contains within it a bloody history of Britain’s war on China—to secure ports from which opium could be introduced to the rest of China. Hong Kong, among other ports, was conceded by the Chinese to the British as a direct result of the Opium Wars. Indeed, Hong Kong smolders today as a consequence of the British ruling class’s predilection for making hasty profits at the expense of ordinary working people. Times have changed so little, and the victims of this systemic avarice are, as always, the people who can least afford it.

    Great Britain was certainly not alone in its imperial drug-pushing in China. Among those illustrious names whose fortunes grew fatter off of selling opium to the Chinese included the grandfather of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and ancestors of former Secretary of State John Kerry, to name but two.

    After the revolution of 1949, the People’s Republic of China sought to combat the opiate addiction. Despite enormous challenges, a mass campaign against opiates mobilized the entire nation and virtually eradicated opium addiction by 1953. Sadly, the legacy of historic opium abuse continues to plague some 20 million Chinese outside the People’s Republic.

    Pharma companies’ new frontier

    Notwithstanding this checkered history of foreign drug-peddling and territorial infringement, in just a few years, big pharma sales in China have skyrocketed—with most drug manufacturers seeing 20% increases in quarterly sales. At the end of the first quarter of this year, Merck’s sales in China increased by 58%, fueled by the HPV vaccine Gardasil and the immuno-oncology drug Keytruda. AstraZeneca’s 28% increase, mostly propelled by its lung cancer drugs Iressa and Tagrisso, represented nearly a quarter of its first quarter global sales in 2019.

    In 2017, the Chinese government rolled out a series of reforms to its drug regulations, including a strategic focus on developing low-cost, high-quality generics. In the past, medicines with expired patents have done well in the Chinese market, where local companies oftentimes manufacture low-quality generics.

    To raise quality and lower prices, the Chinese government has implemented a new bidding process to maintain quality and price for key public hospitals, where most of these drugs are prescribed. However, huge pharma businesses are finding ways to turn the tender and regulatory processes to their own advantage. How big pharma’s influence will play out in this new regulatory regime is still unclear, though the example of OxyContin’s use in China is certainly not promising from a public health and safety standpoint.

    Despite the forward-thinking approach of government health and regulatory planners, some public health officials in China are concerned about the most recent campaign of corruption by Mundipharma, which, combined with increasing social inequality, could lead to an opioid crisis similar to that experienced in the U.S.

    • Thanks: Chinaman
    • LOL: A123
  226. I believe that if one were to include cultural factors or even IQ into the mix you’d find that while the US has the mostest “toys” it doesn’t translate to anything more than an expensive mercenary force. Especially now that our forces are more interested in battling racism, sexism, and every other ism. What do they actually “believe” in? Their next paycheck? That’s a mighty thin reed to lean on. What binds them together if at all? Take the Saudis for example…. they’ve some of the best gadgets that petrodollars can buy and yet the sandal wearing Houthis are kicking their butt. I have to shake my head because its all going to end very ugly one way or another.

  227. @Caspar Von Everec

    The JSDF has masqueraded as a self defense force since its inception. It simply keeps quiet about what it can do which seems a wise thing.

  228. Is this article written by the same author who wrote another almost a month ago?
    Intro – “Woke Mil, by Anatoly Karlin – The Unz Review
    The Influence of SJW Commissars Upon History

    Fundamentally, you need your military forces to be staffed with high IQ and well trained men with high morale and commitment to its cause.

    High IQ is especially important in commanding positions and in the more “g loaded” services. According to a 2015 paper by M.F. Cancian and M.W. Klein, it seems to have been going rapidly down even before the diversity drives of the 2010s. The cognitive performance of US Marine officers has seen a 10 IQ point decline between the 1980s and 2010.” – end of Intro.

    Yes, I know – they’re not necessarily in conflict, but show clear trends – which ain’t good.
    I just inserted AMERICAN MILITARY in the search window of DaLimbraw Library and saw numerous articles by various authors which show our military is going the same direction as our demographics and most likely faster as SJW-uber alles has replaced merit and sanity.
    Not sure any vets would want to be next to our ‘new normal’ recruits – might confuse them more than the enemy.
    BTW – if you research this topic in DLL, flip it to BY DATE – a motherlode of new items.

  229. @Almost Missouri

    Also probably within certain limits sometimes there could be some tradeoff between projectability and fighting power. Having a large fleet of transport aircraft probably increases the fighting power of a country like Russia, because it allows them to quickly move forces between different sectors of the front, or helps airborne attacks and similar, or even solving local logistical problems, but after a certain low threshold they merely increase the ability to project power abroad, while it doesn’t increase that power itself at all. I don’t know if blue water capabilities help coastal defense that much, especially the more power projection elements like aircraft carriers, but probably you can build lots of corvettes and coastal airplanes from the cost of a carrier.

    Since military budgets are limited, countries have to decide whether to spend on fighting power or power projection, and the two don’t necessarily help each other.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  230. 128 says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    I read in a military forum that the JGSDF is still doing frontal attacks in exercises as if the year was 1917.

    • Replies: @Caspar Von Everec
  231. songbird says:
    @Znzn

    Giving Germany a veto would raise awkward questions about why countries with larger populations, like Brazil and Nigeria don’t have vetoes. I count 15 countries with higher populations that don’t have the veto, including 3 in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Not that I would necessarily be against it. Personally, I would like to see the UN destroyed and replaced with an organization of only civilized countries.

  232. Haha says:

    I decided the article’s methodology is seriously flawed when its tabulation showed Saudi Arabia to be a mightier military power than Britain. Common sense was obviously not a part of this analysis.

  233. bayviking says:

    These charts are meaningless. War, what is it good for? Once you start it, there’s no telling what direction it will go.

    In Korea, experienced American Generals quickly overran North Korea, destroying food and shelter until 120,000 Chinese troops stormed the US position, who fought for 17 days before they were able to retreat to safety. The Vietnam war drove the USA into insolvency while the Vietcong lived on one cup of rice a day and fought for the consolidation of their country with determination, until the lying American Generals left in utter chaos, leaving behind the second largest air force on the planet earth. In Iraq US troops twice quickly overran Iraqi troops twice, often just burying Iraqi soldiers alive with bulldozers. During the second war the entire country was occupied, with a small army unable to protect all weapons depots. Insurgents quickly seized Hussein’s munitions, especially plastic explosives and used them to wage small attacks maiming and killing US troops and paralyzing Iraqi oil pipelines. The US bombing campaign left Iraq’s infrastructure in complete ruin. BushII first declared victory but eventually signed a peace treaty promising to leave during the next Obama administration. In Afghanistan, Taliban forces retreated briefly and have since regained control of the country. Twenty years of fighting has accomplished exactly NOTHING and the Taliban appear ready to take over again as soon as the US leaves. Next the USA launched two proxy wars in Syria and Libya, with devastating bombing campaigns which led to civil war in Libya and Russian intervention in Syria. The Russians quickly crushed US mercenary troops. The result of these three Middle East Wars started by the United States were the creation of tens of millions of refugees, whose lives were completely destroyed and who have since overrun Europe in a desperate attempt to stay alive. The US War on Drugs and relentless undermining of Democracy South of our border in order to protect the interests of US Corporations which own much of the best land in those countries has resulted in another refugee crisis, triggering mass immigration into the United States.

    The US Government will never tell their citizens how many lives and how much money they have wasted in their futile attempts to control the destiny of other countries and those countries natural resources. They will only repeat the endless lie that they did it all so that foreigners could have freedom and democracy. How has that worked out for the foreigners? How has that worked out for US citizens that are forced to pay for the unspeakable chaos, death and destruction that these efforts have promulgated, yielding only massive profits for the US military industrial complex.

    • Agree: antibeast, Showmethereal
    • Replies: @4Dchessmaster
  234. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Blinky the Troll,

    Why do you lie so much?

    Do you think anyone will be tricked by your pathetic & obviously fake pairing of:

    • Hong Kong protest against CCP Elites
    • Story about OxyContin

    As you have no on-point response to my facts, and your deception has failed…

    I ACCEPT YOUR SURRENDER

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Blinky Bill
  235. @iffen

    I don’t think such a peace treaty would have been feasible, even if both the US and Britain were ruled by a dictator. Even Stalin would have found it pretty difficult (probably impossible) to make a separate peace with Hitler. At least without getting toppled.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  236. @A123

    One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically pro-Israel Jewish-activists seem to have become fiercely anti-Chinese, as exemplified in the foolish remarks by “Lot” and “A123” on this thread.

    I think that’s a strong indicator that they’ve given up any realistic hope of seizing control of China, and since they won’t be able to control it, it’s automatically an enemy of theirs, much like Putin’s Russia. Similar thinking may explain why the elite Western MSM has suddenly turned so fiercely anti-China so quickly.

    Ron Unz

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/#comment-4300426

    • Replies: @A123
  237. antibeast says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Addiction was a serious political problem facing China during the 19th and early 20th centuries, thanks to British, French, and U.S. traders hell-bent on making as much profit as possible selling Turkish and Indian opium in China.

    Sorry but you’re wrong. The British forced the legalization of the Opium Trade through the Second Opium War which was promptly taken over by Chinese merchants, both in China and Southeast Asia. By 1880, just two decades later, Chinese opium production equaled Indian opium production which had to be diverted to Southeast Asia due to competition from Chinese opium. By 1906, the year China and England reached an agreement to restrict the Opium Trade, Chinese opium production reached TEN(10) times Indian opium production after which it collapsed by 90% after the Opium Trade was banned in China in 1910.

    But the Opium Trade continued throughout the British Raj in India, British Burma and British Malaya as well as in French Indochina and Dutch Indonesia due to their revenue contributions to Western colonial coffers. Western history books seldom mention this sordid fact about the economic dependency of Western colonies on the Opium Trade in India and Southeast Asia. And the people who made the most money from the Opium Trade were Chinese merchants who eventually became the KMT ‘gangster-capitalists’ in Republican China. This was the political problem that Chiang’s Nationalism could not solve until Mao’s Communism took over China in 1949.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  238. Vendetta says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Going by IQ isn’t going to solve the Saudi issue, they score roughly the same as the Yemenis but there’s a world of difference in combat performance between their troops.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  239. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Blinky the TROLL,

    Thank you for confirming you surrender with more off point drivel.

    You are now added to my Blocked Commenters list for TROLLING. Your pathetic dribbling is not worthy of any further time or attention.

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  240. Fuck you says:

    The PC, LGBT, Tranny US Military with it’s old, worn out obsolete weaponry, obsolete tactics and strategy, collapsing economy and divided populace,along with it’s ancient worn out infrastructure and it’s huge debt will have it’s ass handed to it in a war with Russia, China or even Iran.

    • Replies: @Polistra
  241. @Boomthorkell

    Much of the French military elite were Fascist (in the actual, historical sense) and were not terribly fond of Republican corruption (as they saw it.) They preferred the (Nazi) Germans, misguided or not, and so deliberately fumbled the defense.

    There was certainly no deliberate sabotage in the French military. A few very bad decisions with horrible consequences, yes. But no deliberate sabotage.

  242. Old Prude says:
    @JohnPlywood

    There is probably some nasty directed energy weapon we don’t even know of. Imagine a laser sweeping the horizon and blinding whomever looks at it, or a sonic weapon driving people mad…

    Surely the people of 1913 never imagined files of soldiers blinded and damaged by gas. We can’t imagine the horrors that modern technology in the hands of an advanced foe like China can visit on our soldiers and sailors.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @reiner Tor
  243. Rich says:
    @22pp22

    I’m not a great student of the Rhodesian war, so I’ll take your word that they won every battle, but they were also betrayed by their allies and chose to surrender their country. The US defeating both the Iraqi and Afghan militaries is a very different situation. The “great swaths”of Afghanistan you mention are empty bush and caves with barely any population. The US still controls the country.

    Just because you don’t kill all the men, enslave the women and children and salt the earth, doesn’t mean you didn’t win.

  244. @songbird

    Russia made one movie in that vein, in the second half of the 1980s, but funding was seriously cut mid-production, because Gorbachev just met Reagan or some similar shit. Meanwhile Americans didn’t stop anti-Soviet propaganda movies until the 1990s.

    I don’t know much about movies, I don’t watch them much, but it seems to me that the anti-Soviet propaganda was way more effective in the 1980s than in earlier decades. Or earlier they didn’t really try to make effective propaganda against the Soviets. At least that’s how it appears to me.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @songbird
  245. 128 says:

    Actually in Europe, NATO would likely get a draw in a conventional war with the Warsaw Pact by the mid-80s, and had an advantage in conventional warfare by 1989/1990. Most M1s and Leopard 2s were upgraded to M1A1s and Leopard 2A4s by 1989/1990.

  246. 128 says:

    Plus the F-15C, the F-4G, and the F-16C was equal of superior to anything the Soviets had in 1990. The M2 Bradley was more than a match for the BMP and BTR series.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  247. A123 says:

    For anyone foolish enough to think that the CCP Elites are “the good guys” (1)

    China Mocks America for Black Lives Matter Riots It Fomented

    Chinese propaganda and espionage operations in the United States are at work fomenting the problems the Chinese then use to deflect criticisms of their own corrupt regime.

    A Win for China’s Influence Operations

    Although the United States’ stated policy objective vis-à-vis China is to continue President Donald Trump’s tough stance, the actual performance by the hapless team was anything but tough. Its agenda items included climate change and nuclear nonproliferation. No mention was made, however, of Beijing’s harsh treatment of the Hong Kong democracy movement, its horrific human rights record, or its aggressive behavior against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Given all of that, plus the CCP’s blatant and brazen interference in U.S. domestic matters, including the espionage and intellectual property theft that helped justify closing China’s Houston consulate last year, at least some of those key issues might have been mentioned.

    The reasons why U.S. Workers need to organize against the efforts to export jobs to the PRC are self evident. The illegitimate Harris/Biden regime is selling out America.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://amgreatness.com/2021/03/29/china-mocks-america-for-black-lives-matter-riots-it-fomented/

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    , @Blinky Bill
  248. @Blinky Bill

    I wrote 500 km because that’s roughly the range for air launched anti-ship missiles or coastal missile batteries and so on.

    Hypersonic missiles are kind of a meme, ballistic ones even more so. Hypersonics are good against static targets but their utility against moving targets is questionable. Hypersonic missiles can’t recieve proper guidance or seek targets themselves.

    Hypersonic causes a plasma sheath to cover the missiles, this makes them impenetrable to radio waves. As a result satellites or aircraft can’t guide them. Their own active radar can’t see targets for the same reason.

    Inertial guidance can only go so far and yes, they can have electro-optical guidance but electro-optics can scan a very small area. Aircrat carriers moving at 30 knots will easily evade them. At that speed and altitude even the slightest error can lead a missile to veer off course by tens of miles. That’s why they need active radar guidance or satellite guidance.

    Hypersonics have neither. Plus, Hypesonic missile launches can be detected. Space based early warning systems can warn you.

    Hypersonics are no carrier killer wunderwaffe, they’re good against static targets, as seen by the performance of the Iskander-M ballistic missiles but they can’t scuttle any navy. Terrain hugging supersonic missiles remain the best means of destroying warships.

  249. @A123

    China can import all the oil and gas it needs from Russia and Central Asia. China is the size of a continent. It can’t be blockaded like Germany in ww1.

    Plus the US can’t stay away from the East Asia indefinitely. Without American protection, Taiwan will fall and Japan will be strangled by Chinese submarine and naval warfare.

    All of East Asia and Southeast Asia would bow to Chinese naval power. This region accounts for 40% of the world’s GDP.

    • Replies: @A123
  250. @128

    In 1990 the USAF F 16/F 15 wouldn’t fare well against the USSR Mig 29/Su 27 armed with the R73 Archer which gave them off boresight engagement capabilities.Something the USAF would only acquire in the 2000s with the AIM 9X.

    The Luftwaffe’s Mig 29s had something like a 10:1 kill ratio against the USAF’s F 16s in WVR combat exercises.

    If we are talking 1990 BVR means Sparrow vs R 27 so fairly evenly matched.

  251. @Blade

    You don’t know much about India.
    Uttar Pradesh is a big chunk of the Hindi Belt. 200 million hindi speakers who consider themselves to be Indians. Add in Haryana,the Punjab ( 500+ year martial tradition) and Bihar. You now have a recruiting base of 400 million north Indians to draw from, which is how the Indian military recruits.
    Southerners would probably love to join and get in on the military pensions.
    The Indians don’t have a shortage of bodies or people courageous enough to fight and die.

  252. @Mulga Mumblebrain

    “China’s military is defensive, the USA’s aggressive, expansionist and Imperial. And China will have technological surprises aplenty if the USA attacks. . . .”

    A sound observation, I’d say.

  253. @A123

    Please dont block me for surrendering!

    I would never block you. 😇

    https://www.unz.com/?s=Blocked&Action=Search&ptype=all&commentsearch=only&commenter=A123

    So many people have confirmed their surrender to you.

    Who’s that in the bottom right quadrant?

    PEACE 😇

  254. @Tor597

    But the problem is Japan would have little choice. Just in the same way she was forced to sign the Plaza Accords. There is no way the US could rely on Guam. The Carrier groups cant get close enough to China. So the US would almost certainly use Japanese based forces. Sadly Japan would receive the wrath – which the Pentagon wouldnt really care about since its still “fight them over there” doctrine. But let us hope it never comes to any of that.

    Diayou islands were given to Japan to “administer” solely for the purpose of dragging Japan into a dispute with China. Ryuku/Okinawa was given to Japan rather than independence just to have a base to attack China from. Of course back then China didnt have the missiles it has now to obliterate Ryuku/Okinawa

    Again – lets just hope none of this happens.

  255. @128

    The Japanese were the first Air force to introduce AESA radars. Russia still hasn’t manage to field a combat aircraft with AESA radars 20 years after Japan introduced them. They’re still running the vintage cold war aircraft like Su-27 derivatives

  256. @songbird

    Did the Soviet Union ever make action movies like that, or did the draft obviate the need for them? What are the best Russian or Chinese military propaganda/action films?

    Chistilishche is very, very memorable, though its Russian, not Soviet.

    Don’t watch with kids.

    • Replies: @songbird
  257. @IronForge

    ” . . . The US Army and their Air Corps . . .”

    WTF?!

    The Army Air Corps existed in WW2. In 1947, the U.S. Air Force was created. I’m surprised a USNA graduate like you didn’t know that!

    • Replies: @IronForge
  258. awry says:
    @songbird

    There were a handful, the latter 3 directed by a Georgian, Mikhail Tumanishvili, these can be found on Youtube, but not with English subtitles. They are not up to the standards of American action movies of the era, but they enjoyed cult status in the USSR, where there wasn’t a big selection of movies, to put it mildly (and very few “capitalist” movies very shown, mainly non-American ones, the very few American movies screened in the Soviet Union also had cult status, including some that are totally forgotten in America, for good).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Zone_of_Special_Attention
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hit_Back
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Map_Grid_36-80
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Detached_Mission

    Apparently there was a 1985 Soviet/Vietnamese war movie about the Vietnam war too:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinates_of_Death (this can be found on Youtube with English subtitles)
    There is an Afghan War movie too, Afghan Breakdown (1991), it was made in the last days of the USSR, casting Italian actor (dubbed), Michele Placido (who was widely popular in Eastern Europe too from “The Octopus” TV series, where he played a police inspector fighting the Mafia) it is on Youtube with English subs too.

    • Thanks: songbird
  259. @Almost Missouri

    The Afghan war – and even the Iraq war to an extent is kind of like a boxing match where the big champ comes out in the first round and knocks down the opponent twice in the first round and the opponent is saved by the bell. Then for the next 11 rounds the switches tactics and tires out the champ using jabs and defense and hooks to the body. By the 12th round the champ is tired and worn out and nobody remembers the first round. They only remember the champ with the big muscles and fearsome reputation now has a swollen eye and blood coming out of the mouth from the body shots and is panting for breath…

  260. @A123

    I changed my mind, I don’t surrender. You can now unblock me.

    Shaping American public opinion

    The term “propaganda” acquired a pejorative sense during the first half of the twentieth century. Accordingly, British and American propagandists used “information” to describe their work and the positive-sounding word hasbara has generally been preferred in Hebrew. “Propaganda”, ta’amula in Hebrew, is mostly reserved for what opponents do, but the term was often used by the Zionist movement to portray its own efforts to influence mass audiences.

    Israeli officials have emphasized the importance of molding American public opinion to influence U.S. foreign policy favourably toward Israel. For example, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, “In the last 30 years, I appeared innumerable times in the American media and met thousands of American leaders. I developed a certain ability to influence public opinion.” Netanyahu made this statement in the context of the Israeli government’s decade-long effort to pressure for military action against Iran. He added that this “is the most important thing: the ability to sway public opinion in the United States against the regime in Iran.”

    In July 2009, it was announced that the Israeli Foreign Ministry would assemble an “internet warfare” squad to spread pro-Israel messages on various websites.

    One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically pro-Israel Jewish-activists seem to have become fiercely anti-Chinese, as exemplified in the foolish remarks by “Lot” and “A123” on this thread.

    I think that’s a strong indicator that they’ve given up any realistic hope of seizing control of China, and since they won’t be able to control it, it’s automatically an enemy of theirs, much like Putin’s Russia. Similar thinking may explain why the elite Western MSM has suddenly turned so fiercely anti-China so quickly.

    Ron Unz

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/#comment-4300426

  261. @Anatoly Karlin

    I’m sorry AK. No more from me, I promise.

    PEACE 😇

  262. AKAHorace says:
    @Almost Missouri

    >What are the relatively simple inputs that distinguish offense from defense?

    More emphasis on the navy and air force ? Advanced technology rather than numbers ? Certain technologies such as missiles and aircraft carriers ?

    >ince 2002, it is no longer clear what exactly the objective of the Afghan War is supposed to be.

    I think that having a stable regime that would not allow the Taliban to return and not embarrass the US with any major human rights violations would have been a good aim. I suspect (would welcome criticism/correction) that the US was too ambitious, tried to change Afghanistan too much and ended up with a regime that had no legitimacy.

    Just after the overthrow of the Taliban the Americans held a meeting with Afghan leaders and asked what they wanted. They asked for the return of the monarchy, but the Americans said that it was out of the question. Perhaps it would have been difficult to explain to congress why they were spending all that money to install a hereditary ruler ?

  263. A123 says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    China can import all the oil and gas it needs from Russia and Central Asia. China is the size of a continent. It can’t be blockaded like Germany in ww1.

    In the short term, China can only reliably obtain 20-35% of the hydrocarbons that it needs (Domestically + Russia + Central Asia).

    War chews through petroleum reserves at a staggering rate, even against a weak opponent. The hypothetical sneak attack on Taiwan would still require huge military lift to occupy the defeated country, suppress insurrection, and begin Iraq scale reconstruction. Such unwarranted CCP Elite belligerence is also likely to offend & scare off potential suppliers.

    Over time the PRC could shift purchasing based on available production. However, unless you believe in Blinky the Troll’s mythical dodging pipelines, this type of above ground infrastructure is hard to protect.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  264. @Truth

    Paranoid schizophrenic post.

    • Replies: @Herald
  265. @Old Prude

    Wishful thinking. China will lose to US covert ops. Soldiers and sailors are yesterday’s tools. Wars won’t be fought like that in the future.

  266. I am in mood for some humor today.
    Decided to give a shot to stand up military expert Karlin today.
    I was not disappointed.

  267. @A123

    COMBINED MEASURES WOULD HELP CHINA MAXIMIZE
    PRESSURE ON THE BLOCKADER

    1. On the first day, China holds combined commercial and strategic crude-oil stocks of seven hundred million barrels in storage tanks and underground caverns.

    2. The country’s refinery runs of crude oil are 12.5 million bpd.

    3. Rationing rapidly reduces demand for oil products by 35 percent relative to preconflict levels.

    4. China imports a baseline volume of six hundred thousand barrels per day of crude from Russia and four hundred thousand barrels per day from Kazakhstan by pipeline.

    5. The 440 kbd Myanmar–China pipeline is interdicted and unable to supply crude.

    6. Russia and Kazakhstan surge railborne crude supplies by a combined total of four hundred thousand barrels per day.

    7. In addition to pipeline and rail supplies, Russia and Kazkahstan provide 150 kbd of crude overland, by truck.

    Methanol blended into gasoline, vegetable oils blended into the diesel-fuel supply, and other fuel extenders reduce crude-oil demand by 615 kbd.Under the baseline scenario, China’s crude-oil stockpile would last for approximately ten months. If Chinese policy makers could reduce demand for oil products by 40 percent through rationing, import an additional one hundred thousand barrels per day of crude from Russia and Kazakhstan by rail and truck, and bring new pipelines capable of moving four hundred thousand barrels per day of Russian crude from Skovorodino within eight months of blockade imposition, the country’s stockpile “holdout time” would rise to seventeen months. For reference, it is unlikely that China’s direct military fuel needs would exceed five hundred thousand barrels per day even during an intense conflict.

    Building a new pipeline from the Russian border capable of importing an additional six hundred thousand barrels per day of crude would increase the holdout time to twenty months in the 40 percent–rationing case. In a more extreme response scenario—maintaining all the above conditions but reducing crude-oil refinery runs by 45 percent from preconflict levels—the holdout time would be extended to more than four years. In the most optimistic response scenario—achieving 45 percent rationing reduction in oil-products demand and building additional pipeline capacity of eight hundred thousand barrels per day from eastern Siberia into northeast China. China would have nearly eight years before crude stockpiles ran out. It is likely that even a conflict response that began with rationing less than 35 percent relative to preconflict oil consumption soon would experience substantial involuntary reductions as economic activity slowed.

    As China’s gross domestic product and economic activity declined, the country likely would end up with ample domestic and overland liquid-fuel supplies to maintain basic activities, as discussed earlier. In addition, a multiyear-blockade scenario also likely would trigger even deeper structural adaptations.

    These likely would include greater use of public transport; greater use of railroads and internal waterways to move cargo instead of trucking it; cessation of most domestic passenger flights; andsignificant expansion of coal-to-liquids production capacity, which currently is considered too environmentally damaging and economically uncompetitive to justify funding. Here it bears noting that if all currently approved coal-to-liquids projects in China came on line, their total capacity would be 13.8 million tons per year, equivalent to nearly three hundred thousand barrels per day of diesel fuel.

    While these scenario estimates are relatively simplistic,they suggest that rationing would be the highest-impact response strategy for Chinese policy makers facing a blockade of seaborne crude-oil imports. Building additional pipelines to move additional Russian oil into northeast China and blending methanol and other fuel extenders into the gasoline and diesel pools would be the next most impactful responses.The scenarios also highlight the reality that, within historically realistic response parameters, China very feasibly could adapt to conflict conditions and withstand a blockade for a longer period than an outside power realistically could sustain the operation. At the most fundamental level, a blockader would find itself increasingly isolated on the world stage, which would complicate its ability politically, economically, and militarily to continue its campaign.

    In addition, unlike imperial Japan in World War II, whose military was crippled by a seaborne oil blockade because the country had no meaningful domestic oil production, China’s domestic production and overland imports supply many times the daily oil requirements of even the most intense conceivable conflict scenarios.

    Therefore the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and Navy would not be constrained by fuel shortages, enabling them to project power against a blockader and to maintain territorial gains and presence within the first island chain in a manner that likely would force the United States ultimately either to escalate by engaging in direct military conflict closer to China or to forgo military action in China’s near neighborhood, effectively making China the new military hegemon in much of East and Southeast Asia.

    A123 is definitely not a Hasbara Troll 😇

    • Replies: @antibeast
  268. @Mr. XYZ

    that is a fascinating question:

    1)presumably Churchill would have had to resign; Roosevelt would have lost the 1944 election or he would have withdrawn. Would a peace candidate have won in Nov 1944? A Brit empire-first PM might have started squabbling with both Stalin and the USA likely postponing another invasion attempt.

    2) Stalin would have been very suspicious that the US/UK had intentionally let themselves lose the battle . But how could Hitler and Stalin come to a peace deal? The US/UK would have attempted to send even more supplies to the USSR, and the air war over Germany increased. Presumably, a greater push would have been made by the Allies on the Italian Front.

  269. Rdm says:
    @Europe Europa

    Frankly considering all the negative propaganda against Britain and …

    LOL

    Just clicking “LOL” wouldn’t do justice it deserves.

    • LOL: d dan
  270. @antibeast

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sassoon_%26_Co.

    “By then David Sassoon & Co. handled around 70% of the trading volume in Indian opium.”

    https://www.haaretz.com/amp/jewish/1864-tycoon-david-sassoon-dies-1.5196948

    “By the 1870s, David Sassoon had come to dominate the trade of opium to China”

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  271. Alfa158 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    My skepticism about German military capability being almost on par to the Soviets is based on the numerical evaluations of the military assets that were realistic; realistic meaning forces that could actually be engaged in combat. The best summary I have found to date is in the appendices of John Ellis’s 1990 book Brute Force. Data he collected for military assets at the beginning of 1945 were as follows:

    Combat aircraft in service on all European fronts:
    Germany 5,041 (Eastern front estimated at 1,900)
    Soviet 14,500
    USA. 33,179
    UK 8,379

    Ground forces engaged during January 1945 Soviet offensives in Poland, Prussia and BeloRussia:

    Combat Infantry
    Germany 159,500
    Soviet 1,065,000

    Armored Fighting Vehicles
    Germany 1,520
    Soviet 9,760

    Artillery Pieces
    Germany 4,100
    Soviet 60,500

    Looking at the data that included assets Germany had on the Western front, if the Western Allies had signed a peace with Germany in January 1945, the Russians might have been slowed down but they still would have still had enough numerical advantage that they might still have won. I agree with people who say that the Soviets inflicted by far the most damage on the German army, but nevertheless Germany could not have been defeated without both the Western Allies and the Soviets fighting. Could the Soviets have completed the job by themselves after the German capabilities had been reduced to the level that they were by January 1945? Maybe.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
  272. Vendetta says:

    Saudi Arabia’s high placement is the index’s most obvious flaw at a first glance; the sleeper that indicates something is truly amiss with the equation here is Colombia being ranked ahead of North Korea.

    There is not a single domain in which Colombia can claim military superiority over North Korea. North Korean military personnel outnumber their Colombian counterparts by 5 to 1. North Korea has thousands of main battle tanks; Colombia has zero. North Korea has thousands of towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, Colombia barely a hundred of the them. North Korea’s Air Force has hundreds of combat jets; Colombia has about twenty. North Korea operates dozens of submarines; Colombia has four. North Korea has long range rocket artillery; Colombia has none. North Korea has long range air defense systems, Colombia does not. North Korea has ballistic missiles; Colombia does not. North Korea has nuclear weapons; Colombia does not.

    Colombia should not just be behind North Korea in the rankings, it shouldn’t even be close. I would hold off on publishing the standalone CMP site until the formula has been revised enough to yield more plausible results for some of these cases.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  273. iffen says:
    @AP

    See what I mean.

    • Replies: @A123
  274. rkka says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s an interesting what if question whether the USSR could have finished the job had the Western Allies signed a peace treaty with Germany as late as Jan 1, 1945. I doubt it.

    The Soviet ’44 campaign in the Balkans wrecked the European Axis war economy, by depriving it of natural oil at Ploiesti, and Albanian chromium. August ’44 was a 1-2 punch. When the Soviet Army took Ploiesti, it took the top priority target off of U.S. 15th Air Force’s target list. With their priorities rearranged, 15th Air Force then flattened the German coal hydrogenization industry in Silesia. That had impact. I recall the report of the (British) “Technical Subcommittee on Axis Oil” noting that in July ’44, the Luftwaffe got 120k tons of fuels/lubricants, while in September they got 7k. Its tough to keep things going with that little. In response, the Germans imposed draconian limits on fuel consumption. In Italy, units had to report fuel consumption daily, with any irregularities in reporting punishable by a death sentence. Runstedt noted that fuel economy pretty much prevented training new vehicle drivers prior to the Ardennes Offensive, pointing that out as a significant reason for its failure. So you’re not gonna run an effective war effort on coal squeezings.

    Chromium, for armor steels, heat-resistant steels, wear-resistant steels, essential for modern military production. Germany used its last in April ’45.

    So, without these critical resources, a separate peace with the West doesn’t help the European Axis survive long, unless the West also provides significant economic support

    • Agree: Reaper
  275. From the end of WWII till 80s, Soviets had superiority in conventional arms in the European theatre, I thought that there’s a consensus about that fact, even Kissinger thought so. Off course globally US was the stronger force, with it’s superior navy and air force, but not in Europe.

  276. Alfa158 says:
    @Alfa158

    Sorry, I seem to have deleted some data.

    German divisions engaged in January 1945:
    Eastern Front 162, 47 of them armored or motorized
    Western Front 93, 19 armored or motorized.

    Total engaged combat forces for Germany and the Soviets at end of 1943

    Combat infantry, troops and divisions:
    Germany 483,200 in 151 divisions
    Soviet 1,905,120 in 504 divisions

    That ratio would not have improved by January 1945

  277. THE US has a rapidly narrowing window to win a conventional war against China..

    What shape would such a war take? Would not geography (10,000 miles of intervening Pacific ocean) make a direct clash difficult? Would the USA invade-occupy China like Japan did in the 1930’s and 40’s? Wouldn’t this just be another Vietnam situation – but on gigantic scale?

  278. rkka says:
    @128

    The Dyle plan stuck the best French mech forces & the BEF in a noose, while 7 pz divisions hitting Corap’s 9th Army at the exits to the Ardennes, lacking AA & AT artillery, pulled it tight.

    The Manstein plan could not have been better served by the Dyle plan, the perfect combination to ensure rapid Anglo-French defeat in ’40. The Germans got stone lucky.

    That said, they probably would have won eventually, due to their superior doctrine/comms & the ability to precisely mass aerial & artillery fires that gave them, but it woulda taken a lot longer & cost a lot more, maybe enough to delay Barbarossa until ’42.

  279. A123 says:
    @iffen

    There is a difference between:
    • Barack Hussein Obama, GW Bush, Kamala Harris, and the SJW Globalist Elites lost their Afghanistan War.
    • Populist Americans lost Afghanistan.

    When the Harris regime is pushed out of Afghanistan.
    • The 1st statement will be true.
    • The diametrically opposed 2nd statement will be false.

    MAGA Americans can neither win nor lose the Folly of Obama’s Surge.

    Removing troops from Afghanistan, causing Obama to lose faster, would be a type of victory. However, no one would call it Victory in Afghanistan. How about, MAGA Victory Exiting Afghanistan?

    PEACE 😇

  280. Jon0815 says:

    This really should be called the Comprehensive Military FIREpower index, since that seems to be primarily what it is measuring.

    The idea that in 1995, Russia had 39% of the USA’s military power (a more favorable position than today!) is just absurd. At the time, while Russia retained most of its Soviet-era firepower, its troops were so poorly trained that it could not even successfully conquer Chechnya, a tiny, neighboring territory with only about 1% of its population. At best, I would put Russia’s military power in the 1990s as on par with Israel, or no more than 5% of the USA’s.

    Neither is it credible that in 2020, Saudi Arabia has about a fourth the military power of Russia, when you consider the latter’s highly effective performance far from its own borders in Syria, while the Saudis cannot even capture contiguous territory from Yemeni goat herders.

    The US has a rapidly narrowing window in which to win a conventional war against China.

    As long as it retains massive nuclear superiority, would the USA accept the humiliation of a defeat by China, or would it escalate to tactical nukes? I maintain that China will never be a true superpower until it is a nuclear superpower.

  281. @Truth

    Disagree with Plywood. Good post and good thinking.

    In the 21st century, the world is overrun by ever-present EVIL operators. Our own USA has already been substantially infiltrated by enemies or they have bought or blackmailed many Americans in powerful positions in politics, big corporate, the judiciary, media, etc.

    There is hardly a week that goes by now, when I am consuming news and current event info, that I don’t think of the word: TRIANGULATION.

    • Agree: GMC
    • Replies: @Truth
  282. songbird says:
    @reiner Tor

    seems to me that the anti-Soviet propaganda was way more effective in the 1980s than in earlier decades.

    While I think this is true, I wouldn’t say it was necessarily characteristic of films featuring the Soviets. There are many films made during the ’80s that seem to be friendly or neutral to them. For example, 2010, Russkies, Red Heat, or Iron Eagle II.

    In general, I would say the villains leaned more towards terrorists and no-name Arabs. Top Gun itself was very vague, though the enemy aircraft were meant to be MiGs.

    Probably, Afghanistan and the Reagan build-up had something to do with movies like Red Dawn. Though, it is interested how action stars were all ‘roided up. People like Isaac Asimov saw this as a sign that the US was inherently more imperialistic than the USSR – though, of course, he was born over there.

  283. Ridiculous comparisons. Calculating CMP is a good pastime for coach warriors. Military strength can only be compared in action. After all, people win wars, not the toys MIC plays with to enrich well-connected companies.
    Fact is, the last war the US won was with Grenada (population ~110,000) in 1983. Iraq war is a disaster, Afghan war is an even greater disaster for the country (both were good cash cows for we know who).
    The last war Russia won was Georgia in 2008. It’s doing pretty well in Syria. Both Georgian army and Syrian bandits are pretty weak opponents. It took over Crimea w/o a war. Crimean population was overwhelmingly for leaving Ukrainian madhouse, so this cannot count as a military victory. Despite hysterical Ukie squeals, Russia never showed up for the war in Donbass.
    China did not fight anyone in the last few decades (minor skirmishes with India do not count; besides, they were draws, nobody really won). It’s building up its military, but we can’t know what it’s worth until it acts. The same goes for India.
    Europeans are so emasculated that their toys don’t matter: the soldiers will likely surrender under slightest provocation. Remember pathetically crying on camera British and US marines captured by Iran? So, CMP of European countries are worthless numbers.
    Who did I forget?

    • Replies: @AP
  284. songbird says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    For Chinese military films:

    Sky Hunter 2017 (described as China’s Top Gun) It had the full support of the PLAAF, but I do not recommend it.

    Wolf Warrior 2 (2017) I do not think it was a good action movie, but definitely worth watching from a sociological standpoint to address or debate the question whether China is pozzable on Africans.

    Someone recommended Operation Red Sea (2018), but I haven’t seen it.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  285. BorisMay says:

    WWIII started in 2016…this seems to be a universal conclusion, thus the author is behind the curve by suggesting it hasn’t started yet!

    It is ridiculous to compare countries in this simplistic way because different militaries are based upon differing governmental decisions.

    For instance Russian military doctrine is based upon ‘defence of the nation state’ and is not based upon expansion or international dominance. With the US the exact opposite is the case.

    There is absolutely no way the US could conduct a conventional war against a near peer country. Its logistical requirements are beyond the scope of its military and it could not replace even small manpower losses. Thus to suggest this is possible vs China is an admission of ignorance of the facts by the author.

    Finally it is the quality of the fighters and the moral authority of the officer corp and government that wins wars. This article takes no account of these vital matters.

  286. Truth says:
    @Tor597

    They will if they get invaded.

  287. Kapyong says:
    @songbird

    “What are the best Russian or Chinese military propaganda/action films? “

    Not necessarily best, but recent Chinese films could be mentioned – Wolf Warrior, 1 and 2. Somewhat like a mirror image of a Rambo film. Childish. In Australia, the new Chinese hard-nose attitude has been referred to as “Wolf Warrior diplomacy”.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3540136/

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-backfires-uniting-rivals-dividing-at-home-2020-6

    Russian film T-34 is better – giving a Russian look at WW2 :

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8820590/

    Fascinating cultural differences – the Russian film evoked some understanding, even sympathy; but the Chinese behaviour was quite alien.

    • Replies: @songbird
  288. Herald says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Paranoid schizophrenic post.

    Not too sure if China is the real driver of the insane western vaccination policy, but it seems likely that the shots will be lethal. Many are dead already.

    • LOL: Rdm
    • Replies: @Truth
  289. @A123

    What is this nonsense talk of “sneak attack” on Taiwan. The line has been drawn for decades. Any move toward formal independence reignites the civil war. Likewise any attempt to establish foreign (really US and Japan) military presence there will cause the same effect.

    Iraq scale reconstruction? You literally have no idea what you are saying. Taiwan is a relatively small island. It’s no secret – the PRC has openly said they would only destroy military infrastructure because – duh – why would they want to wipe out the whole island? They have openly showed on tv drills of the PLA storming mock DPP headquarters and firing missiles into their headquarters.
    China retaking Taiwan would be the end of the Chinese civil war. Not even remotely the same as the US going all the way to Iraq to bomb them to the Stone Age. You seriously don’t get it – that this is like Korea where people have family on both sides of the border??? Fujian and Taiwan provinces are sisters and have family ties going back centuries. The PRC in no way would do to the island what the US did to Iraq. Is this your attempt at comic relief?

    The old people – who still consider themselves Chinese wouldn’t mind (they don’t like the DPP). Middle age people would be split. The young of course would object – but they are soft as tissue paper now and are westernized in their identity politics and love of LBGT issues. The young people would be allowed to migrate – just like they are allowed to leave from Hong Kong if they don’t like it.

    As to the issue of hydrocarbons – I see others have tried to explain it to you but you don’t get it. Most likely the 25 year of oil supply that Iran and China just agreed to – will mainly end up going through Pakistan… Pakistan is China’s “Iron Brother”.

    • Replies: @A123
  290. AP says:
    @AnonFromTN

    US military easily defeated Iraq’s military twice. And it defeated the Taliban. The losses were not military ones.

    Will you say that the Soviet military ultimately was defeated by the Europeans because all its territories (plus much of the USSR itself) were lost to Moscow?

    • Replies: @Polistra
  291. Truth says:
    @The Real World

    Thank you.

    Yes the military hardware is basically all for show now, or to intimidate a MUCH smaller adversary in which the world power sees no need to institute a long, protracted propaganda campaign.

    EVERYONE in the US who is above a certain level of power, influence, money or accomplishment, and has a public platform is a traitor. No exceptions. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be in positions of influence.

    • Replies: @The Real World
  292. Truth says:
    @Herald

    Officially 2,700 in the US 4,200 in Europe. that means the true number is probably x10.

    • Replies: @Herald
  293. A123 says:
    @showmethereal

    What is this nonsense talk of “sneak attack” on Taiwan.

    The hypothetical is Blinky the Troll’s. His chart posited how China would prevent U.S. interference in a CCP sneak attack on Taiwan.

    That Blinky the Troll = Nonsense is an accurate observation on your part.

    Iraq scale reconstruction? You literally have no idea what you are saying. Taiwan is a relatively small island. It’s no secret – the PRC has openly said they would only destroy military infrastructure

    That sounds remarkably like what GW Bush said before his misadventure in Iraq.

    The reality of war, unlike your fantasy, is that war destroys huge swaths of civilian infrastructure. Only pitifully a naive Bush-thinker would say otherwise.

    As to the issue of hydrocarbons – I see others have tried to explain it to you but you don’t get it. Most likely the 25 year of oil supply that Iran and China just agreed to..

    As to the issue of hydrocarbon you and the blocked TROLLS, apparently fail to grasp the infrastructure requirements. The 25 year supply is not available short-term. It will take decades of infrastructure building to exploit that resource. And that is based on a fanciful assumption that sociopath Khameni’s despotic regime survives.
    ____

    You just don’t get it, do you? No matter how much you wish for instant gratification — The CCP Elite is many decades away from the ability to launch an offensive against any major power. And, they will cause irreparable harm to their own people if they engage in an unwarranted attack on a smaller nation.

    PEACE 😇

  294. On the face of it. Senile Joe’s bunch of LGBTQXYZ+, CRT-brainwashed military looks way too demoralised and divided to defeat Xi’s China or Putin’s Russia, whom are both extremely united and patriotic.

    That said, this is only relevant if the war were fought on conventional terms.

  295. @A123

    One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically pro-Israel Jewish-activists seem to have become fiercely anti-Chinese, as exemplified in the foolish remarks by “Lot” and “A123” on this thread.

    I think that’s a strong indicator that they’ve given up any realistic hope of seizing control of China, and since they won’t be able to control it, it’s automatically an enemy of theirs, much like Putin’s Russia. Similar thinking may explain why the elite Western MSM has suddenly turned so fiercely anti-China so quickly.

    Ron Unz

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/#comment-4300426

  296. songbird says:
    @Kapyong

    I’ve seen the Wolf Warrior films.

    I don’t necessarily think Wolf 1 was a great action movie, though I think one can enjoy it on the basis of vicarious nationalism. Wolf 2 I consider to be woke, but, perhaps, a must-see because it is woke. Maybe, I am naive, but I think China could (and should) make more racist movies, without it affecting their business interests in Africa.

    I haven’t seen T-34. Thanks, for the recommendation.

  297. Polistra says:
    @AP

    US military easily defeated Iraq’s military twice.

    Sure, it beat up a small country after 1) disarming it completely first and then 2) dropping more ordnance than in all of WW2.

    And it defeated the Taliban. The losses were not military ones.

    Even more pathetic. Remind me, who’s in control of Afghanistan now?

    • Thanks: Reaper
    • Replies: @AP
    , @reiner Tor
  298. @A123

    you and the blocked TROLLS, apparently fail to grasp

    A123 thanks for reading my comments, even after “blocking me”.

    Much appreciated.

    PEACE 😇

  299. Herald says:
    @Truth

    Yes, the official figures will be woefully short of the real death toll, The Harvard study into VAERS suggested up to 99% of vaccine caused injuries go unreported on the system. However, lets settle for 10% and then multiply the official figures by ten, as you suggest. The results are of course, truly appalling and with the medium to longer term death toll still to happen.

    We are seeing an ongoing disaster is in real time, taking place directly in front of us, being swept under the carpet by corrupt officialdom and a complicit media. The important question now, is whether this carnage is intentional.

    • Replies: @Truth
  300. A123 says:

    Blinky Biden,

    Do you not understand what Blocked Commenter means? All I see is a soothing grey bar when you drivel on.

    That you are irrational is a given, but you are now behaving like your idol & role model Beijing Biden. We all know you worship him, but this much clueless flailing is comedy.

    Personal survival tip, AVOID STAIRS!

    PEACE 😇

     

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  301. @A123

    Just let me know which of my blocked comments you’ve read and which you haven’t.

    It’s just common courtesy!

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Herald
  302. Truth says:
    @Herald

    Sir, it has to be intentional. Otherwise, why would they insist upon us taking a vaccine that they have already said, may not even work.

    https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/who-we-dont-know-if-vaccine-prevents-infection/?fbclid=IwAR1xIv5AVNk58UCUwje0S1sIhDUVi7A9my8Ae2rvwXbFZ1fGoNLcGLQOTEY

    • Replies: @Herald
  303. Mulegino1 says:

    The US can defeat all of its opponents and rivals hands down.

    Dementia Joe and Shrek Austin, after all, have the whopping military advantage of increasingly negroid leadership, the Rainbow and Tranny Divisions, the Pregnant Top Guns and soon the a new Rachel Levine Class of attack subs- soon to be deployed, as soon as the problem of the missing periscope can be resolved.

    With Hollywood in its cheering section, Dumbmerican military might is undefeatable.

  304. Vigilius says:

    Metaphysically speaking Military with all dreadful facts are just part of Planetary Struggle
    between main Civilizations, between Different concepts of Being.
    Struggle has many layers and total war is not likely . Yet struggle is fierce and looks
    almost catastrophic.
    Comes to mind – Gigantomachia continue – War of Giants against Olympians.
    War that never ends .

  305. A123 says:

    Blinky Biden,

    You still do not understand what Blocked Commenter means?

    Why are you posting love poems to your precious Biden as responses that I will never see. We all understand your total devotion to to your JoeBama.

    Please stop humiliating yourself. We all know this is what your idol Biden needs to board Air Force Zero.

    PEACE 😇
     

    • LOL: Zarathustra
  306. S says:

    Nonetheless, we see that NATO brings its [the US] share up to 41.5%, still far ahead of the Sino-Russian bloc, let alone either China or Russia separately. This hints at the great multipliers the US gains from its system of alliances (if they can be successfully coaxed in should a conflict develop into World War III).

    This is an excellent point and has a parallel in WWII.

    If a person wants to see just how powerful the US/UK was in WWII, check out the list of ‘allied’ countries who by 1945 had been economically coerced by the Anglosphere countries into declaring war on the Axis powers, ie much of Central and South America, amongst others, though not having any skin in the fight per se.

    There is also a close parallel with WWII here in the ‘projections’ of soon to come Chinese dominance. Similar scary projections were said of Germany and its rise in power in the 1930’s, and, had Germany been left alone, may well have come to pass. However, as is known, Germany was not left alone, and starting September 11th, 1941, and in violation of international law,, the United States engaged in an ‘undeclared naval war’ against Germany. Germany, of course, returned the favor, openly declaring war on the US three months later, and was ultimately crushed.

    My guess is something similar is intended by US/UK elites for Russia and China, ie they don’t have any intention of letting China catch up. And they will, if necessary, attempt to provoke China and, or Russia, to war, even against their own desires, as was done to Germany by the US in late ’41.

    However, though certainly similar,, the overall situation isn’t exactly the same today, and things don’t always go quite according to plan, best laid plans of mice and men, and all that.

    We shall see…


    Roosevelt issues ‘shoot on sight’ orders in regards to German submarines on September 11, 1941.

    American Homefront September 11, 1941: President Roosevelt gives a Fireside Chat on the sinking by a U-boat of USS Greer, a US Navy destroyer sunk near Greenland on 4 September 1941. The Germans claim that the Greer shot first and the U-boat reacted in self-defense. Roosevelt calls the incident an “outrageous” incident of “piracy” and recites a list of other grievances at sea against the Germans. FDR gives the U.S. convoy escorts the right to fire at submarines on sight. He cautions, however, against overreacting to these “acts of international lawlessness.”

    We have sought no shooting war with Hitler, we do not seek it now.

    http://worldwartwodaily.filminspector.com/2018/12/september-11-1941-convoy-sc-42.html?m=1

  307. @Truth

    Agree again. A little story related to the Casey quote: I am part of family that is not psychologically/emotionally close and we all live in different states. Very recently, three of us met in the state where our ill, elderly parent was hospitalized. In spending time with the two other siblings, I was rather surprised at how “out of it” they seemed.

    One brother was always a big reader and had a healthy sense of skepticism about the world while the other brother was more ‘standard issue, suburban, working, family guy’ but, had an open mind. Now, I find that bro #1 has already had both jabs (that shocked me) and in a conversation one-on-one with bro #2, where I mentioned my disinterest in the vaccines and spoke about the deaths that have occurred, he laughed rather smugly and asked what kind of logic that was with the deaths certainly a small fraction of the administered vaccines.

    OY VEY! (I’m not Jewish but, sometimes, that Yiddish phrase fits just right) Their brains have, indeed, been hijacked. I’m now related to aliens in human skin. Casey won!

    • Replies: @Truth
  308. AP says:
    @Polistra

    I’m not disputing that, although it seems no major country since World War II has gone to war against a similarly matched one – there is nothing strange about the USA being the same.

  309. @Caspar Von Everec

    Hypersonic causes a plasma sheath to cover the missiles, this makes them impenetrable to radio waves. As a result satellites or aircraft can’t guide them.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon#Design

    Zircon exchanges information in flight and can be controlled by commands if necessary.[33]

    • Replies: @Caspar Von Everec
  310. @reiner Tor

    He was trolling. (And doing it well).

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  311. @Vendetta

    Similar IQs, but the Saudis have a lot more money translating into much more military capital and better training.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @gnbRC
  312. Polistra says:
    @Fuck you

    Stop with the apostrophe’s please

    • LOL: The Real World
  313. “almost twice less than”
    WTF does THAT americanism mean?

  314. anonyms says:

    India has left Pakistan in the dust.

    Lol! Your Islamophobia is clouding your “analyses.”

    What an army needs is balls of steel. The feckless dindoos exposed their jelly balls by capitulating to the Chinese. Even a capture of a no mans land on Chinese territory, and spinning it as a valuable strategic location would be better than nothing.

    In stark contrast, sometime Feb 2019, India attacked a soft target in the cover of night and basically achieved nothing.

    Pakistan then attacked their mortal enemy in broad daylight, and gave a bloody nose to the feckless dindoos, shooting at least one fighter jet, if not two, taking a dindoo POW, sent the other feckless dindoos helter-skelter, causing them to shoot their own helicopter, killing many… whew!!

    In the dust?! Lol!

  315. IronForge says:
    @Orville H. Larson

    Read TFPost.
    Sarcasm.
    Escapes you like Reading Comprehension

  316. songbird says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Saudis might be the ultimate test of how far you can push limited human capital with simulators or other training.

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
  317. @Vendetta

    I would hold off on publishing the standalone CMP site until the formula has been revised enough to yield more plausible results for some of these cases.

    Fair criticism, though I don’t want to do much of this since it becomes a question of gaming the results to “what they should be.”

    One important thing about the CMP is that countries don’t necessarily tailor it to maximize “destruction potential” as such – in fact, if that was the goal, they’d just max out on nukes, come to think of it – but to solve the particular problems they face (more or less effectively). Unlike North Korea, Colombia doesn’t face a potential problem with having to fight a war with an opposing state (Venezuela is hardly a realistic threat). It does have a problem, as I gather, with drug cartels and insurgencies. So the military it builds is, I assume, optimized for tackling those threats.

    That said, rejigging the CMP to replace “cultural factors” with the “harder” IQ should put North Korea decidedly ahead of Colombia regardless.

  318. @Boswald Bollocksworth

    Not one Japanese person in 100 knows that Russia is the nearest country to Japan.

    • Replies: @iffen
  319. IronForge says:
    @Malenfant

    Sorry, Fanboi Troll.

    Amateur Hour is what this is.

    How can someone who may not have had a Security Clearance make an Assessment?

    And no, Malefant, you’re an Amateur as well.

    BTW, Outside of Blogging, what has Karlin Published in the MIC Rags? We had a Indian Fanboi Troll about taunting Putin after writing a Bu++ki$$ing Article about the F-35, and an ex-Russian Coast Guard Officer write an article or two at USNI’s Proceedings. Nothing more from him since we’d rather read from Blue Water Navy Sailors.

    Once you’ve been around Long Enough, you get to see the Kabuki on a Grander Scale.

    Bad Assessments bring False Hopes to the Public.

    FYI, I’m in the Year Groupings where Pompeo and Esper belong.

  320. @SafeNow

    “The USCG has increased its deployment to the W. Pacific”
    I guess they flunked Geography. What’s a coast?

  321. Dan Hayes says:
    @Blinky Bill

    NO! But they are both very comfortable with devotion to their Han fatherland!

  322. Kapyong says:

    Gday Anatoly,
    Good work, thanks.

    Apparently from about a decade back, the US upgraded their nuclear missiles with a new super-fuze, claimed to essentially increase their power by as much as three times (three times better accuracy means only a third as much blast required per target, giving three times more blasts available.)

    What is your view on its significance please ?

  323. @Boomthorkell

    It took a full-scale Imperial collapse and a radically dangerous, antagonistic, and alien government (the Menshevik\Boksheviks) for Mannerheim and his Polish and Baltic Equivalents to switch to localist Nationalism.

    Jews and blacks—aliens—are in charge in the US. Open borders, exploding crime rates, massively fraudulent elections, a discredited currency, and tranny sacralization mean social, legal, and moral collapse. The US is a zombie nation.

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
  324. Biff says:
    @IronForge

    I, on the Other Hand, am a Veteran US Naval Officer

    A government employee is one step up from the protective nest of Mama’s basement(food and clothing provided). Your perspective from inside the blob has a historical track record of wrongness and biases going back for generations(emphasis bias). Calling others amateurs is the last refuge of a completely dependent ritual based government know-it-all(that really doesn’t).

    AKA – no credibility.

    • Agree: Andy Horton
  325. Truth says:
    @The Real World

    I am truly sorry, My Friend, I can almost mirror your story with my Mother, Father and 4 siblings. 3/5 have already take the vaccine, one is too young and probably will the week it is available and one is on the fence now but will almost certainly capitulate when they offer either the inevitable carrot, or the just as inevitable stick.

    My father who is 85 and has taken the vaccine summed it up best. He said “Son, either you are right and we will all be dead, or we are right and you will be dead, but I just went ahead and did it. So how’s the house coming along…” It makes me sad, but he has lived a great, full, life, and while he does not especially want to die, he does not particularly want to see 100 either: my other three siblings still have children from 5-16 years old.

    It astonishes me.

    • Replies: @The Real World
  326. rec1man says:

    Military Jet Engines

    without them, the airforce is grounded

    There are only 4 sources of Jet Engines
    USA, UK, France and Russia

    Western Jet Engines have mean time to failure of 5000 hours
    Russian Jet Engines have mean time to failure of just 500 hours

    These jet engine manufacturers control the airf0rce of the rest of the world
    and sell very limited numbers of Jet Engines

    China depends on imported Russian Jet Engines
    Israel gets western Jet Engines
    India buys both Russian and Western Jet Engines

    Because China has the bad habit of stealing technology – cloned the Russian Su27 ,
    there is a defacto Technology blockade vs China

  327. songbird says:
    @Spect3r

    There’s no reason that an elite, shock troop of trannies would not be useful as a terror weapon – especially, so close to the Eurasian Steppe – but it might be a mistake to allow them to become commanders.

    • Replies: @Spect3r
  328. @rec1man

    Western Jet Engines have mean time to failure of 5000 hours
    Russian Jet Engines have mean time to failure of just 500 hours

    Russian engines do have lower service life but this sounds like made up numbers.

  329. gnbRC says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Saudis have a lot more money translating into much more military capital and better training

    I have lived and worked in SA. Sure, they have a lot of money, but the Saudi military authorities, when I was there, wouldn’t let two Saudi fighter pilots take off side-by-side because the authorities were afraid the pilots would attack each other! Perhaps it’s different today – but culture rarely changes that quickly.

    Or, reminds me of the story an oil platform colleague related to me. Two Saudi contractors had some sort of argument on an oil platform. They argued all the way up to the helicopter, on the helicopter, walking to their leased car, continuing to argue as they went to fill up at the local Aramco service station – where one of the men had enough, went to the trunk/boot, pulled out a handgun and blew his arguing partner’s head off!

    Culture and IQ matters only when there’s involved parenting (which is not the case in SA) leading toward personal integrity, emotional regulation and a durable social contract, so I wouldn’t put much faith in Saudi military prowess just because they have money to afford military equipment.

    • Replies: @Reaper
  330. @Truth

    “Son, either you are right and we will all be dead, or we are right and you will be dead, but I just went ahead and did it. So how’s the house coming along…”

    For some reason that made me LOL. I guess it’s the ever amazing “logic” people use. Your Dad still trusts Govt, it seems. The sad part is that he doesn’t trust his own brain to perform simple analysis of the risks of the virus vs experimental vaccine. To me, it’s sophomore stuff.

    ….he does not particularly want to see 100 either.

    Let me add to my story. My Mother is 3 months shy of 95 yrs old. She lived for the last decade in an apartment at a senior independent living place. Recently, she was rushed to the emergency room with severe abdominal pain and labored breathing. Turns-out she had a very infected gall bladder and has heart stenosis (blockage). They can’t operate on either because of her age. So, they aggressively treated the GB with antibiotics and drainage and, astonishingly, she survived it. Her breathing got better after getting some fluid out of her lungs.

    But, she is so weak she’s unable to walk even with a walker. She’s in a rehabilitation place but, the physical therapy is ceasing because she’s not improving from it. It takes 2 people to move her from bed to wheelchair and some sort of mechanical lift places her on the toilet from wheelchair, I don’t even know how the bathing thing works (sorry for the TMI). Her internals have stabilized and she comes from Germanic DNA that frequently lives to 100 or close so, she may last awhile. Her days will now be spent sleeping, eating, doing a little reading or watching TV and when the weather is nice, they’ll wheel her outside to sit for a couple hours. That’s it and the cost will be $113,000+ per year, out-of-pocket. Yep, you read that right!

    That’s what the 90s look like for many so, I’m with your Dad. It’s truly bizarre seeing my Mother more like a dependent toddler than an adult. I’ll pass on that slice of life too.

    Lastly, get this: that &^$%# hospital emergency room jabbed her with the vaccine when she was in no position to provide informed consent, none of us were there to do so either AND they hadn’t fully diagnosed her!! Simply atrocious. I feel like Dr Mengele is around every corner in 2021.

    • Agree: Truth
  331. @Ray Caruso

    Sure, but that’s been the case for decades, if only a lesser extent. None of this is alien enough to the military or its deciding elites.

    A zombie follows the orders of its voodoo master or necromancer\liche, if we’re going with that comparison. Honestly, I’m fond of this, thank you. A zombie makes more sense than a corpse for America. An aggressive, fast, infectious one.

  332. @songbird

    China isn’t particularly pozzable since the logic of status works differently. The sheer worship of credentialism has its issues, but it also isn’t really something that anyone below 100 IQ can navigate. Anyone who truly can, might as well be indistinguishable. The Legalist legacy has its uses.

    • Replies: @songbird
  333. Chinaman says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Can’t put the genie back into the bottle. Technology have changed everything.

    I am sick of being a pessimist ( except on America) so I think the humanity is on a cusp of the next stage of human evolution with genetic engineering technology like CRISPR or brain-machine interfaces will allow humanity to transcend race, culture and our genetic destiny. Breakout from the interminable cycles of rise and fall of civilisations. Perhaps all that is required is that we identify and remove certain allele from our collective gene pool and “install” others via CRISPR and mRNA tech.

    Once humanity gain control our evolution, everything in the last 5000 years is obsolete. May be we becomes the Borg at the end but I prefer that to the stupidity we have to endure now.

  334. @Mr. XYZ

    Because India is in Asia.

  335. Chinaman says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    What about if we shoot dozens or even hundreds of them at once for one aircraft carrier to account for error? I think we have stockpiles of thousands. They are cheap to build anyway.

    How many aircraft carriers does the US have again?

    You can’t completely change the trajectory of an aircraft carrier within 15 minutes so we just need to cover an area.

    • Agree: Reaper
    • Replies: @Caspar Von Everec
  336. 22pp22 says:
    @AP

    All the Taliban have to do is not lose and they win.

    Here, perceptions count. The moment the US puppet regime falls, the US will be perceived as a defeated power, and more importantly, it will perceive itself as a defeated power. They have invested too much in victory.

    Victory over Japan and Germany meant the creation of client states that controlled their national territory. For “the most powerful military in the world” to be unable to finish off a bunch of low-IQ barbarians is slowly, and very obviously, chipping away at America’s sense of self-worth.

    I am 56. I remember visiting the US with my parents before my father “came out” as a woman. We were vacationing in Hawaii when Saigon fell. The other hotel guests looked like they had had the life kicked out of them, but they still had more self-belief then that Americans do now.

    • Replies: @128
    , @BB753
  337. @reiner Tor

    Yes, aircraft carrier tonnage, indeed blue water navy tonnage altogether, airlift capacity, airborne and amphibious infantry, could all be metrics of “projectability”. But then, the UK, being an island, and the US, having no intra-hemisphere competitors, both require projectability for their militaries to matter. (For the UK, this goes back to the Hundred Years War, if not before.) Since a big chunk of their military spending goes to projection capacity before anything gets spent on actual combat impact, it might mean that the combat impact of their CMP is overstated because a portion of it is simply devoted to the “overseas” problem. So maybe if there were some way to divide military spending between “projection capacity” vs. actual “combat capital”.

    And what about continental powers like Germany, Russia/USSR, China? Historically they have not been naval powers, but they have all been formidable military power projectors into adjacent lands, and adjacent to adjacent lands. Or is that just the natural side effect of high CMP?

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Wency
  338. @Rahan

    Imagine how much the Chinese would enjoy obliterating the Japanese, as long overdue vengeance for the Japanese aggression from 1895 to 1945, and the slaughter of thirty million Chinese, often, as in Nanjing, in the most barbaric and horrific manner imaginable.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  339. @A123

    Sabbat Goy stooge shares the Sinophobic race hatred of its Zionazi Masters! Hardly a scoop.

  340. @The Wild Geese Howard

    How? No explanation has ever been given about how they penetrate the plasma sheath.

    Hypersonic missiles in theory have existed for decades as Ballistic missiles, particularly ICBMs have hypersonic speeds in the terminal phase, with speeds of over mach 12.

    They’ve always been inaccurate and have had to rely on inertial guidance. The inaccuracy doesn’t matter in case of nukes but it does in case of conventional warheads

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  341. @Chinaman

    Perhaps, maybe one could fire a dozen or so missiles in a circle surrounding the aircraft carrier, hoping one will hit. Even a single hit destroy the carrier’s ability to conduct operations and send it to the dockyards for years

  342. @Anatoly Karlin

    I know, I just gave a serious answer.

  343. @Blinky Bill

    Here’s photo that says a thousand words about genealogy of PRC’s rocket program.
    Ludwig Prandtl (left) was doctoral adviser of Theodore von Kármán’s; von Kármán in turn was Qian’s. In Allied-occupied Heidelberg, Apr 1945.

    As a part of Operation Paperclip, von Karman and Qian were interrogating Prandtl and other German rocket scientists, i.e. von Braun.

    Prandtl worked enthusiastically for the Nazis. von Karman was part of a class of Hungarian Jews who emigrated to US and became enormously influential. This incl von Neumann, Teller and Wigner.

    Qian is said to have very typical East Asian intelligence per these boards.

    I found him to be quite imaginative, with a mathematical aptitude that he combined successfully with a great ability to visualize accurately the physical picture of natural phenomena.

  344. Spect3r says:
    @songbird

    And what exactly is the advantage?

    • Replies: @songbird
  345. Wency says:
    @Almost Missouri

    The lesson of the past few centuries would seem to be that power projection has a power all its own, because it implies dictating the terms and timing of the engagement. The British spent the better part of two decades creating the conditions for Napoleon’s fall through military/economic/diplomatic channels all around Europe, decisively committing their ground forces only when they finally had an alliance that massively outclassed him in CMP.

    When one country is fighting across the sea in another country’s backyard, the advantage is always going to be with the nearby country, all things equal, but a high level of power-projection can at least make the encounter interesting. The only case where a power-projection focus would seem to be a disadvantage is when the PP-focused country is fighting a neighbor that is not PP-focused. But for obvious reasons that you pointed out, that’s generally not much of a contest: US vs. Mexico.

  346. @Old Prude

    The best protection against those death rays is a tinfoil hat.

  347. @Caspar Von Everec

    The Russians now have a few fighters with AESA, but you are generally correct that it’s a big weakness for them and a strength for Japan.

    • Replies: @Caspar von everec
  348. @reiner Tor

    Russia’s greatest failure in military matters is its inability to field a modern aircraft that can go toe to toe with front line western fighters like the Typhoon, Rafale, F-16V, F-15C or the Super Hornet.

    Russian media like to harp about the great dogfighting and maneuverability capabilities of the SU-35S but modern air combat is fought at a distance with BVR missiles.

    Aviomics determine the winner. AESA radars have LPI and allow the enemy to see first and target enemies without giving their position away. Russian fightera also lack DIRCM and their RCS is far higher than 4.5 gen Western fighters

  349. iffen says:
    @Badger Down

    Not one Japanese person in 100 knows that Russia is the nearest country to Japan.

    Wow!

    Americanization has taken a much greater toll than I suspected.

  350. iffen says:
    @Chinaman

    I think the humanity is on a cusp of the next stage of human evolution

    Always has been, always will be.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
  351. iffen says:
    @Caspar von everec

    front line western fighters

    Conspicuously missing from this list is the F-35.

    • Replies: @iffen
  352. Of course. Its tge king of the sky since the F-22 has been discontinued

  353. 128 says:
    @22pp22

    Well they could win in Afghanistan if they were willing to apply Roman or Mongol methods of counterinsurgency, but then even the Soviets were not willing to do this.

  354. iffen says:
    @iffen

    Of course. Its tge king of the sky since the F-22 has been discontinued

    I don’t know if you are being sarcastic or serious.

    • Replies: @Caspar von Everec
  355. iffen says:
    @AP

    but these are not military problems.

    Just for the sake of clarity, what kind of problem is the occupation of a militarily defeated entity if it is not a military one?

    • Thanks: Reaper
    • Replies: @AP
  356. @Chinaman

    This would be more convincing if I saw cognitive intervention that already works being used more. Not seeing it.

  357. @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Your average monied chink spends more time visiting Japan than hating on Japan.

  358. Reaper says:

    Nice but very hard project.

    Assume the strength is always had/ will have a large risk factor.

    I believe military spending offers a very limited insight.
    As it was mentioned in the article for example China does it mostly internally: includes “military complex” are far less prominent opposed with most NATO countries.

    There are some (on their scale) notable military spenders.
    Based on data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute a ranking Military Expenditure/ GDP %: Oman, Saudi Arabia and Algeria were the top 3 in 2019.
    But cc. no matter what kind of data we check, in average arabic/ muslim countries tend to have hight military spending in GDP %.
    Jet arabs have bad performance both recently and historically, except Egypt and Syria which fare better a bit/ at least sometimes. Persia and the Tan States (Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc…) are a different matter.

    While I do agree to remove the +25% for Germany based on ww2 performance: present Germans are not those Germans – cultural and attitude factors are far-far more important.
    Sure to implement any of it to an index is nearly impossible, but crucial in de facto action.

    Attitude/ principles:

    Some examples:
    – Russians have a long “tradition” to care far less on losses, manpower included.
    But in recent years in military technology they do catch up the “tech-reliance” approach.
    With exaggeration: Some dacedes ago an illitarate Ivan was perfectly capable to effectively use the USSR equipment, and fix anyhing with a hammer. Exaggeration ends. Recently Russian military technology have the same direction as any western one: heavy reliance in hight-end technology, satelites, computers, etc… and increasingly needs well-trained, well-educated personel – carrier soldiers, engineers, specialists to use them. Not easy to replace.

    – Chinese “clone army”:
    In a similar manner they have a will to act as a collective. There were Chinese military march, which get the “Attack of the clones” characterization by many, their training points to that direction.
    So does military technology often.
    When a magazine compared some years ago new German tanks/ recent Chinese tanks.
    In short:
    German tanks: hyper-super protection for crew, air conditioning, fridge, juice, food-noshery, etc…
    Chinese tanks: basic protection, many weapons, easy to produce.
    By other words attitude:
    Germans: life is important, we protect crew/ induviduals/ care for their well being.
    China: We need arms, and capable weaponry.
    Sure it is beetr to be a soldier in Germany, than China, yet I believe China have the advantage because of the different attitude in a possible conflict.

    – US Army:
    Traditionally rely on equipment/ technology. What they have: they use quite well.
    Some did realize this extensive tech-reliance, and there are new units which trained to rely on minimal tech in the recent decade, so that is a step towards preparation for certain situations.

    But they still have the “traditonal” attitude problem: psychological. Distress, PTSD, hardly accept losses, addictions to cope with events, too much expectations about supply, backup, rescue party, etc… This is about soldiers, not special units with SERE training.
    That is another matter how reacts the “home front”, included the press.
    And this includes nothing about woke-ism, only the traditional attitude.

    In short western armies are not prepared for total war, no support, and mindless sacrifice not considered normal.
    Still describe the duty of a soldier: Fight, and get home alive (preferably whole), probably with surviving comrades too.
    Hardly will do en masse kamikaze attacks, mass charges with blades/ shovel when no ammo left, or regulary blow up themselves together with the enemy.

    No wonder NATO members traditonally have a strong goal to make a distance from war: meaning as much possible avoid face to face/ close range encounters. Either use aircrafts, drones, long range weapons, various cameras, satellites, monitors, or just right now the new contract with microsoft about augmented reality.

    Attitude/ principes (Is human life important?) is an age old discussion.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @reiner Tor
  359. @Reaper

    I believe the entire project is to use quantitative metric, not qualitative factors which are subject to subjective speculation.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Reaper
  360. @Caspar Von Everec

    Russia still hasn’t manage to field a combat aircraft with AESA radars

    Huh?

    From 2009:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Flanker-Radars.html#mozTocId533477

  361. Reaper says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    You are right.

    “Sure to implement any of it to an index is nearly impossible, but crucial in de facto action. ”

    It can compare arms to arms, not complete military capabilities.

  362. antibeast says:
    @Blinky Bill

    To save oil, China can easily BAN gas-powered private vehicles and mandate ELECTRIC-powered ride-sharing vehicles for private transport while forcing Chinese citizens to use ELECTRIC-powered public buses, e-bicycles and mass transit. This way, China can cut oil consumption by 80-90% as much of the oil is consumed by private gas vehicles which has become a status symbol for the Chinese middle-class.

  363. @Anatoly Karlin

    Secession–with or without accompanying war–is logical and desirable. Red States are what would be considered Old America, and need a divorce from diverse globalist blue poopholes which reject the Constitution. Red States need border control now to keep blue locusts out. Internal blue migration is as bad or worse than the Great Replacement.

    • Replies: @Jatt Aryaa
  364. songbird says:
    @Spect3r

    And what exactly is the advantage?

    Well, it depends what direction they are attacking in. If it is their trannies against ours, then that cancels out any advantage.

    If, on the other hand, they are attacking east, where there are no trannies, then it will be like they unleashed one of Lovecraft’s monsters on the the battlefield – so ugly, hideous, and unimaginably disturbing they are. They will make the enemy run in fear. Either that, or, if he is manlier, they will be good at attracting bullets, artillery shells, and airstrikes – running down the enemy’s munitions supply, while happily freeing up logistics back home.

  365. antibeast says:
    @rec1man

    China depends on imported Russian Jet Engines.

    Not anymore. China does have its own Chinese Jet Engines.

  366. Reaper says:
    @gnbRC

    Situation is not much different.

    They can argue, and parade with shiny new equipment.
    But in real event low quality/ bad discipline as most of the arabic armies.

    No wonder they needed to employ mercenaries from predominantly Columbia, who was capable to wage “cartel-war” agains Yemen instead of the expensive and low quality Saudi forces.
    Saudi claims there were/ are less than 2,000 security contractors (personel) but it seems a very low number. Probably they had that just from Defion Internacional.

  367. @Polistra

    Sure, it beat up a small country after 1) disarming it completely first and then 2) dropping more ordnance than in all of WW2.

    That’s what this list is about. “Who can drop more ordnance on other countries?”

  368. songbird says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I’ve wondered if the decline in testosterone might have afflicted peoples differently. For example, perhaps the physiological basis of ethnocentrism in Europeans is more dependent on testosterone than that of other groups.

    But I think neo-Confucianism only goes so far. First, there is dysgenics and demographic collapse which is diminishing China’s traditional competitive environment.

    Then, one can make a comparison to Germany. Traditionally-speaking, Germany is geared very differently in education to America – it is very track and test dependent. The same amount of money is not thrown into higher education. The people who go to higher education are a much lesser percentage, and the average IQ in university students is likely higher than in America. Yet, it would be difficult to find a more cucked country.

    • Replies: @128
    , @Daniel Chieh
  369. 128 says:

    Do we have any real world reviews as to how well the newest Chinese weapons for export like the JF-17 work? I have difficulty finding reports in English.

    • Replies: @Vendetta
  370. @rec1man

    There are only 4 sources of Jet Engines
    USA, UK, France and Russia

    China will be there within 2 years. WS-10A has been powering J-11B for a few years now and WS-10B is now powering J-10C. The TVC version was demonstrated in 2018. WS-10C may be used for J-20 as an interim engine soon. The high by-pass WS-20 is on trial with China’s strategic air-transporter Y-20 right now.

    • Replies: @128
  371. 128 says:
    @songbird

    If you want to utilize high human capital women, you have to give them high education, up to post-graduate, otherwise having them as at home taking care of the family is maybe just wasting their IQ, but then if you do that their fertility rate drops like a rock.

    • Replies: @Andy Horton
  372. Vendetta says:
    @128

    Here’s a JF-17 pilot interview:
    https://hushkit.net/2019/07/19/flying-fighting-in-the-jf-17-thunder-interview-with-pakistan-air-force-fighter-pilot/

    No one has really taken the latest generation of Chinese equipment to war yet, we won’t know for sure how well it performs in the field until that happens.

    That said, the JF-17 seems to be quite handy in its intended role as a low-budget, lightweight fighter for countries that can’t afford to buy top-of-the line jets. It’s very cheap to acquire and operate, and it has very low maintenance requirements (and thus excellent operational availabity). It outperforms legacy jets like the MiG-21 and the Mirage and has access to more modern munitions and radars, thus making it an excellent candidate to replace these old jets in other air forces as it did in Pakistan (many third world countries still rely on them).

  373. 128 says:
    @last straw

    The news is that China is acquiring a Ukrainian jet engine maker because they can not come up with their own.

    • Replies: @last straw
    , @antibeast
  374. @songbird

    Germany is a fully occupied country that has to practice ritual humiliation for WW2. It’s not surprising that they have no resistance left in them, when self-hate is part of the normal curriculum.

    China’s traditional competition isn’t diminishing at all. It is the cause of tfr crashing thanks to the overall Red Queen attitudes. All money and time must be conserved for competitive status maximization, leaving little for having multiple children.

  375. @Caspar Von Everec

    How? No explanation has ever been given about how they penetrate the plasma sheath.

    Here is a paper from 1964 describing several possible techniques for doing so:

    PDF Electromagnetic wave penetration of reentry plasma sheaths

    https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/jres/69D/jresv69Dn2p147_A1b.pdf

    Just skimming, I get the sense the sheath acts as a high-pass filter in terms of which frequencies are blocked.

    This site has a very general explanation of things that have been tried:

    http://www.spaceacademy.net.au/spacelink/blackout.htm

    NASA figured out how to do it using a satellite relay to the Space Shuttle:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communications_blackout

    So, yes it’s a very difficult problem, but not unsolvable.

    I imagine the Russians are doing something similar. I’m sure any such satellites would be high priority targets.

  376. @A123

    Go back and read everything slowly…. Anyway the funniest thing about your comment is that you say China cant project power against a major nation but your calculus is waaaayyy off. China would be hypothetically fighting at its near shore. The US? Think properly… China’s missile force is built to destroy the US Pacific Fleet – of which Japan is an extension. Its artillery is built to take out military installations on the island of Taiwan. Again you make the silly comparison to Iraq. You have no clue what a civil war is? There is a reason a civil war is the most vicious type of war. The reality is the ball is in the court of the government of the ROC in Taiwan and its US backers. There is no sneak involved. Everyone knows what the red line is. Not sure why some feel the need to try to tempt it.

    • Replies: @A123
  377. AP says:
    @iffen

    Administrative, moral. If the Americans had the stomach to murder a few 100,000s, perhaps a million or so, they would have kept it quietly. They had the military might to do so. Or they could have found a local satrap like Kadyrov to do less dirty work for them. Or maybe some combination of lavish spending and brilliant marketing would have done the trick. But they were not capable of any of such approaches. This lack of capability was not a military failure.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @iffen
  378. A123 says:
    @Showmethereal

    China cant project power against a major nation but your calculus is waaaayyy off. China would be hypothetically fighting at its near shore.

    I think you conceded my point. The inability of China to project power is why it would be limited to near shore victims.

    China’s missile force is built to destroy the US Pacific Fleet – of which Japan is an extension. Its artillery is built to take out military installations on the island of Taiwan.

    Unprovoked CCP aggression and invasion of Taiwan or Japan would have to be followed by house to house urban fighting to suppress nationalists. This type of fighting is highly destructive to civilian infrastructure (commercial and residential). The comparison to Iraq is not about the fight itself, only the cost of post-war reconstruction as GW Bush found out.

    An unprovoked assault on Japan would also flip Russia into opposition cutting hydrocarbon supplies even if they did not actively oppose the Chinese aggression.

    The reality is the ball is in the court of the government of the ROC in Taiwan and its US backers. There is no sneak involved. Everyone knows what the red line is. Not sure why some feel the need to try to tempt it.

    If China will never cross the red line, then there will never be a war. At that point the discussion is moot. The only reason to have the analysis rests on hypothetical situations involving aggressive Elite CCP overreach and/or error.

    PEACE 😇

    • Troll: showmethereal
  379. iffen says:
    @AP

    Administrative, moral.

    What would be the organizations to execute this?

    If the Americans had the stomach to murder a few 100,000s, perhaps a million or so

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say that: yes, we could, can and have. If the Governor of NY can kill thousands of old people without so much as a peep from the establishment, I think we could have offed a few thousand Vietnamese with a tolerable level of static.

    they could have found a local satrap like Kadyrov to do less dirty work for them.

    Apparently, you are unaware of the regime changes made by the US. Some involved, Gasp! Assassination!

    Or maybe some combination of lavish spending and brilliant marketing

    Are you completely oblivious to the propaganda and deception perpetrated on the American public, much less the spending that poured forth during the War?

    This lack of capability was not a military failure.

    The military was sent to prevent South Vietnam from being taken over by the commies. The commies took over South Vietnam.

    The military failed to accomplish their mission.

    “Nuff said.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  380. Everyone is quoting these weapon stats like it’s from the back of a baseball card. How could this be accurate public info? Any remotely competent military would obfuscate their capabilities or lack thereof. That’s just Game Theory 101, basic Sun Tzu shit. Appear weak when strong, strong when weak.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  381. @128

    “high human capital women”

    Thanks for the laugh.

  382. @128

    The deal has been blocked by the U.S. However, those who follow the Chinese aviation industry closely know that China will get there without this deal within 2 years. China already has AESA radar, first rate BVR missile PL-15, and China’s military avionics are on par with western ones, although China will continue purchasing western engines and avionics for its commercial planes because of certification and international market requirements.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  383. Smith says:

    Me thinks these stats are meaningless.

    Even the supposed top 1 or top 2 military like USA or China will have trouble attacking and occupying Vietnam.

    These days with small arms, drones and missiles being easily manufactured, it’s not so easy to invade and occupy anymore.

    The worst these countries can do is bombing and reducing infrastructure to rubble, but they will never be able to subjugate the populace, while their population and hatred only grow.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  384. @Caspar von everec

    Why do you say Russian jets can’t engage BVR? Where do you get that idea?

    • Replies: @Caspar von Everec
  385. @reiner Tor

    NATO expansion is a completely irrelevant thing.

    Any prostitute country can willingly allow US military bases on their territory, have shared or integrated intelligence with them, conduct joint training exercises, have US military infrastructure installed there……..and NOT be a member of NATO. The people of Lvov are now free to be test subjects for US bioweapons labs killing a few hundred of them every year – and give and receive as many STDs to American soldiers using them as prostitutes, all without a hint of NATO membership.

    The main problem of NATO expansion is it gives deranged, dumb, inferior-complexe loser states like Poland and the Baltics the mental cushion to do cultural/historical and political stunts. Militarily , the status gives them nothing extra.
    Historical revisionism and disrespect, non-physical ( though evil) political & mildly economic repression to ethnic Russians ,and retaliatory gay parades to show how “backwards” Russians must be are NOT expected reasons for WW3

    Kaliningrad, something over which could seriously prove the irrelevance of NATO, is not at risk of having it’s shipping, air and rail routes between them and mainland Russia stopped. These limpwristed faggots in Poland and the Baltics never mention the possibility, even though theoretically it is the quickest form of blackmail to Russia – exactly because they understand that is an act of war that would be acted on immediately by RF.

    If not for oil pipelines, ( because NS1/2, Turk Steam and LNG will cover gas transit through Ukraine issue) then I would not have problem with 404 joining NATO IF it traded accepting Crimea reunification and LNR/DNR recognition. Same thing with Gruzia and SO/Abkhazia.

    If China invaded Sweden tomorrow then , Sweden not being a NATO member will not stop it from being vigorously defended by NATO as if it was Norway attacked by China. I’m sure the same applies for Finland.

    Pakistan was effectively the first NATO created country , even though NATO didn’t exist then and it has never been a member. Pakistan was created to stop the Soviets from having a warmwater port where it could also have had position to block oil shipments from the gulf countries to the west in what would have been territory of a USSR-friendly, socialist-leaning India. Pakistan was also used as military base for the U-2 reconnaissance missions over the USSR . As I’m sure you know – Pakistan was critical to training, sending weapons and providing fighters and intelligence to Muhajadeen in the Soviet-Afghan war. Pakistan also was allowed to have nuclear weapons despite for nearly all it’s existance being a chaotically run, military-state. North Korea is controlled by the military but at least it is ordered. This looks like a NATO country to me.

    Can only guess it was a NATO-allowed move for them to have tactical nuclear weapons, just as for South Africa – 2 states adjacent to socialist enemies “coincidentally” allowed them by US.

    Most of the things claimed as bad NATO expansion are just the EU acting as d*ckheads -but that’s the point – not knowing where NATO ends and EU starts

  386. Chinaman says:
    @Andy Horton

    That seems to be the case with China. The weapons we are brandishing are already obsolete but not so sure about America. Given America’s hubris and the need to “project power”, I don’t think they are holding something back. They are always eager to show off their new wares. Just the difference in character between 2 nation.

    I think China knows its enemies much better than America knows its allies. When war begin, all the facade and noise will fade away and just as we have seen with COVID, the rot in America’s will fully expose itself.

  387. @Smith

    The worst these countries can do is bombing and reducing infrastructure to rubble, but they will never be able to subjugate the populace, while their population and hatred only grow.

    Technology has made it easier, not harder, to control a restive population. Digital flows can be monitored, and both monitoring and neural reading are possibilities once denied, but are now possible thanks to the promises of the Machine God, blessed be. The brain itself is also a target, allowing the potential of removing unwanted associated and implanting useful associations.

    https://nypost.com/2021/03/04/china-using-emotion-recognition-technology-in-surveillance/

    China has been ramping up surveillance known as “emotion recognition technology” in order to monitor human feelings — and help them with law enforcement, according to reports.

    https://singularityhub.com/2021/03/30/how-scientists-used-ultrasound-to-read-monkeys-minds/

    In monkeys, the technology could reliably predict their eye movement and hand gestures after just a single trial—without the usual lengthy training process needed to decode a movement. If adopted by humans, the new mind-reading tech represents a triple triumph: it requires minimal surgery and minimal learning, but yields maximal resolution for brain decoding.

    https://massivesci.com/notes/implanted-memories-memory-mice-neuroscience-science-fiction-brains-mind-control/

    However, what’s more exciting is that in the new study the researchers were able to actually “create” an artificial memory from scratch. This is the first time this has successfully been done without any external sensory experience, just by manipulating specific areas of the brain!

    And of course, casual things such as digital monitoring has greatly improved the flow and control of capital, which prevents the acquisition of violence in the hands of potential troublemakers, etc. One of the major things is that as technology advances, economy of scale improves, far outstripping small groups that might challenge it(e.g. Amazon).

    • Replies: @Smith
  388. @Tor597

    Completely irrelevant. As are all the numbers and graphs Karlin presents. The United States has the ability to put more F-15E Strike Eagles and F-18 Super Hornets at the point of contact than any other potential group of adversaries can defend against. The schwerpunkt. Tactical, operational, and strategic surprise can only be achieved simultaneously by the United States.

  389. @A123

    And then China nukes Israel. Right up your zionist ass.

    And the world goes back to peace.

  390. @Johnny Rico

    I did not know that the US has developed wormhole technology for jets.

    impressive accomplishment

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  391. @Sick of Orcs

    Old America is a bunch of obese, circumcised mystery meat yelling pedophile at men fucking 17 year olds.

    Old America needs some delousing, gas.

  392. AKAHorace says:
    @AP

    To do so probably requires skills and attributes the USA lacks, but these are not military problems.

    I said this before you in the comments, you could have checked. This is a common thing in long comment threads though.

    The problem might be that the US tried to completely remake Afghanistan rather than settle with a “good enough” version that would leave the place not too completely changed but would have no longer been a threat to the west. I suspect that you guys wanted to make the place into a country with values like your own rather than accept some things that you didn’t like (absolute monarchy, obedient women, boy rape).

    • Replies: @RSDB
  393. @Caspar von everec

    modern air combat is fought at a distance with BVR missiles

    Perhaps. Perhaps not. Perhaps not always.

    Also the Russian jets can engage in BVR, as PESA radars can also catch enemy planes, even if they are less sophisticated and would have a smaller chance of victory.

  394. @Chinaman

    You might want to dial back the satanic hubris about genome modification a bit, my friend.

    https://www.gmwatch.org/en/news/latest-news/19732-new-analytical-tool-reveals-massive-dna-damage-caused-by-crispr-cas9-gene-editing

    And some of us have some real doubts about the safety of mRNA tech, too.

    But if you want to play God with your own genome, I can’t stop you, Übermensch. But you really ought to tighten up the security at your Level 4 labs first, because we don’t want to be dragged into the consequences of your Luciferian schemes without our consent. BTW, how’d that Gain of Function research work out?

    Are you passingly familiar with the story of the Sorcerer’s Apprentice? Like the Sorcerer’s Apprentice you might discover that you have started something beyond your ability – or your right – to control, but without any hope for the return of the Sorcerer to set things back in order.

    May I commend to you the potential benefit of a little time spent on reading and meditating on some Lao Tzu to refresh your awareness of the wisdom you can glean from an understanding of the Tao and its Power before you get drunk on these wild-eyed Promethean schemes. Your ancestors have something to tell you, and it would behoove you to listen before acting in haste. You know what they say; act in haste, repent at leisure.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Chinaman
  395. @Reaper

    By other words attitude:
    Germans: life is important, we protect crew/ induviduals/ care for their well being.
    China: We need arms, and capable weaponry.
    Sure it is beetr to be a soldier in Germany, than China, yet I believe China have the advantage because of the different attitude in a possible conflict.

    Germany in 1944 found it more difficult to replace trained pilots and tank crews than airplanes and battle tanks. So I’m not sure your point is valid.

    • Replies: @Reaper
  396. @Europe Europa

    I get the impression that Pakistanis are generally more aggressive and warlike than Indians, mainly because they seem to be racially more Indo-Aryan and Central Asian, races that seem to be more warlike than the more Dravidian and to a lesser extent East Asian influenced Indians.

    Pakistani Muslims mostly eat meat. Hindu’s mostly eat vegetables with some exception like Punjab Sikh’s who eat meat.

    This is universal. Meat eaters fight like animals. Vegetable eaters fight like vegetables.

    • LOL: Andy Horton
    • Replies: @Showmethereal
    , @Truth
  397. Herald says:
    @Truth

    My question was really rhetorical and would suggest that rather like yourself, I believe that Covid-19, whatever it really is, was unleashed upon the world, as part of a long foretold plan, to rid the planet of its great unwashed masses. Covid-19 is of course, not the main agent of death, that dubious honour belongs to the current crop of vaccines, that aren’t remotely vaccines.

    Some compare the injecting of these “vaccines” as akin to the recipient playing Russian roulette, but I see that comparison as being appropriate, only if the revolver is fully loaded.

    • Replies: @Truth
  398. @Johnny Rico

    Not if the US is engaging Russia or China. And like in Syria – Russia stepping in changed the paradigm. I mean even when NATO attacked Serbia years ago China sharing signals intelligence with them changed how NATO had to operate.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  399. @dogbumbreath

    Thats not alwYs a good analogy. A buffalo can kill a lion. The buffalo eats grass while the lion eats meat. An elk can kill a wolf. The elk eats grass and the wolf eats meat. Predators use stealth or target the weak or sick or young. In order to get a fully fit large prey they have to hunt in groups and even some of the group are at risk for i jury or death. So it is with animals – so it is with nations.

  400. @JerseyJeffersonian

    No.

    A C C E L E R A T E.

    To become more than we are is the innate essence of humanity.

  401. Truth says:
    @Herald

    Some compare the injecting of these “vaccines” as akin to the recipient playing Russian roulette, but I see that comparison as being appropriate, only if the revolver is fully loaded.

    Good comparison, I would probably suggest that one chamber will be empty rather than one chamber full, because the human body is incredibly resilient and some people will survive no matter what.

    But what happens from here? We have another year, maybe two of carnage, China/Russia invades and our military is too depleted to stop them, social disobedience increases by multitudes, the suicide rate jumps exponentially, the dollar is crashed and a national pay-by-phone system is introduced, the holdovers who did not want to take the vaccine are rounded up and interned, and a brilliant charismatic man (or woman, or whatever) comes onto the world stage with miracle cures promising to cure all of our ills, as long as we just promise him our TOTAL LOYALTY (fealty).

    Oh, and you will be able to turn on ABC television, two years from now during primetime and watch live porn. And five years from now watch live executions.

    My Knicks are a game above .500 this year though, so I’m OK with it all.

  402. Truth says:
    @dogbumbreath

    My understanding is that Roman Centurions were required to be vegetarian. But then again, most of them were homo, too.

    • Troll: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Truth
  403. @Showmethereal

    I mean, its literally true in some fashion by purely mechanical means. Meat is much more calorie dense and converts more efficiently into energy, enough that we can see a strong correlation between intelligence of animals that consume meat and animals that are strict herbivores. There’s a reason why companion animals are primarily carnivores.

    https://www.livescience.com/24875-meat-human-brain.html

    One study, published last month in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, examined the brain sizes of several primates. For the most part, larger bodies have larger brains across species. Yet human have exceptionally large, neuron-rich brains for our body size, while gorillas — three times more massive than humans — have smaller brains and three times fewer neurons. Why?

    The answer, it seems, is the gorillas’ raw, vegan diet (devoid of animal protein), which requires hours upon hours of eating only plants to provide enough calories to support their mass.

    Researchers from Brazil, led by Suzana Herculano-Houzel, a neuroscientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, calculated that adding neurons to the primate brain comes at a fixed cost of approximately six calories per billion neurons.

    For gorillas to evolve a humanlike brain, they would need an additional 733 calories a day, which would require another two hours of feeding, the authors wrote. A gorilla already spends as much as 80 percent of the tropic’s 12 hours of daylight eating.

    https://www.quora.com/Has-an-animal-ever-evolved-to-be-less-intelligent-in-order-to-survive

    I’m going to expand on Ilya Taytslin’s answer a little. The best example I’m aware of is the koala. This cute little fuzzy guy has evolved to be a complete idiot. An adorable idiot, but an idiot nonetheless and there is a reason for it.

    Early koalas, and we’re talking very early (like 25–30 million years ago), would have had a more varied diet. As the Australian climate became drier, koalas had to transition to harder-to-digest food sources or die out. Species that didn’t adapt disappeared. Thus, the koala eventually came to eat only eucalyptus.

    Fossil evidence suggests that koalas were already pretty sluggish early on (probably due to a lack of predators) and that helped them with their new diet since eucalyptus sucks as a food source. It seriously sucks. For one, the stuff is poisonous. They must chew the leaves thoroughly, sometimes several times as they vomit the leaves back into their mouth (regurgitation sounds so much nicer, but let’s be real about it). Babies can’t digest the leaves at all and must eat the mother’s poop. The leaves have to be fermented in their digestive tract. The whole process of digesting a mouthful of leaves can take 100–200 hours. They have to sleep 20 hours a day for digestion and to save energy. Their entire body is nearly taken up by digestive organs.

    I don’t know if there is a casual relationship between martial ability and meat eating, but it seems fair to reason that insofar as intelligence appears to have a relationship with meat eating, so we can probably assume that adequate consumption of meat helps optimizes humans for tasks including fighting.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  404. @iffen

    AP is fundamentally correct here, IMO. It seems pretty obvious for me that if the Americans had treated Vietnamese or Afghans with half the level of brutality of the Germans in, say, Belarus, then both those places would have quickly become placid. Which is not to say that expending your “moral capital” in such a way would be wise or optimal.

    More fundamentally, the problem with insurgencies is that the guerillas can disguise themselves in the civilian population. Hence, the Lanchester equations that approximate combat outcomes in the modern era can no longer apply as in classic state vs. state conflicts, since the occupiers cannot bring their overwhelming advantages of mass and force multipliers (artillery, air power, etc.) to bear. Any one engagement typically happens at the place and time of the insurgents’ choosing (as they have the initiative), in conditions in which they try and often succeed in having a local superiority of forces. Insurgencies are still solvable ofc but they require spending a lot of capital (moral – if brutalizing them into submission; political – if ceding them concessions; monetary – if bribing them; monetary & human – conventionally suppressing them with substantial losses of your troops, but without going deep into war crimes).

    • Replies: @RSDB
    , @iffen
    , @4Dchessmaster
  405. antibeast says:
    @128

    China has been producing its own jet engines for years. The reason why China covets Motor Sich has to do with its small turbofan engine for cruise missiles which falls under the Missile Technology Control Regime of which Ukraine as a member but not China. Motor Sich’s portfolio also includes large turbofan jet engines for civilian aircraft but not jet fighters.

    https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2020/06/aeroengine-concerns-ukraine-us-china

  406. RSDB says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The main threat to South Vietnam by 1973-5 had become external rather than from internal guerilla war.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  407. iffen says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I’m not arguing about insurgent warfare. Certainly the commies had the wind at their back with the national liberation/anti-colonial thread in their favor. My argument is that the military was sent to prevent the communist takeover of South Vietnam and failed that mission. Our objective in the war was to prevent that takeover and we failed to achieve our objective.

    I am arguing against all the: “Well, we didn’t exactly lose. We coulda, shoulda, etc.”

    Well, we didn’t. We lost the war. The military was tasked with fighting the war and it lost.

    • Replies: @d dan
    , @reiner Tor
  408. Chinaman says:
    @JerseyJeffersonian

    Your ancestors have something to tell you, and it would behoove you to listen before acting in haste

    The qualities that I admire the most in Americans are their attitudes towards risks and their manic optimism. America is the triumph of the optimists.

    It is sad that the the roles are reversed today and Americans no longer believe in *Accelerated failure* and the” let’s do it and see what happens” Ethos. It is the Chinaman is willing to to push the boundaries of our knowledge and take charge of human evolution.

    I know all about Taoism ( yin yang nature BS) and Confucianism. There is a reason everyone of China’s emperors have promoted its study. It is a system of control and the source of stagnation and social rigidity in China. It is the epitome of totalitarianism. It didn’t do China any good in 2500 years. All that shit made us weak and defenseless in the face of barbarians like yourself. Whatever you think about Mao, he removed the shackles of Confucianism on the Chinese mind. We still don’t know how that might end up but seems to be going pretty well.

    You are the face of decay in America. Americans have really lost it when they are telling me to study Lao Zhi.

  409. d dan says:
    @iffen

    “Well, we didn’t. We lost the war. The military was tasked with fighting the war and it lost.”

    Besides the fact that North Vietnam has endless supply of support from China (and some from Soviet), the key reason American couldn’t win the Vietnam war was because they couldn’t invade North Vietnam.

    And the reason they couldn’t invade was because China warned them against stepping across the 17th parallel.

    And the reason they decided to listen to the Chinese warning was because they learned from what happened when MacArthur foolishly decided not to listen to Chinese against stepping across the 38th parallel in Korea.

    Unlike in Korea where there was a chance for Soviet to directly intervene (and didn’t), there was no chance Soviet could rescue North Vietnam if US attacked them (given the domination of US navy). So, they really was afraid of China’s intervene.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  410. 128 says:

    Actually by 1973 they did not even need to send much ground troops, just financial, logistical, and air support would have been enough to keep South Viet Nam afloat, as the Easter Offensive shows.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
  411. Truth says:

    You are the face of decay in America. Americans have really lost it when they are telling me to study Lao Zhi.

    LMAO!

  412. @Showmethereal

    Thats not alwYs a good analogy. A buffalo can kill a lion. The buffalo eats grass while the lion eats meat. An elk can kill a wolf. The elk eats grass and the wolf eats meat. Predators use stealth or target the weak or sick or young. In order to get a fully fit large prey they have to hunt in groups and even some of the group are at risk for i jury or death. So it is with animals – so it is with nations.

    My analogy is simple but true. Can’t compare a buffalo to a human because both have different digestive systems. Stomach of buffalo is designed to eat grass (like horse) which is then fermented in the bufallo’s gut and turned into the nutrients it requires to grow. Humans don’t have a gut designed to ferment. We are designed to eat the buffalo (meat) which enables us to capture all the nutrients the buffalo manufactured by eating grass. Ever wonder how a handful of White Settlers could kill off a couple of million Native Indians? Disease infested blankets is a lie (like the current Plan-demic). They killed off the buffalo which was the Natives primary food supply and then fed them grains. In India you have the same situation. For the few to rule over the Indian slave masses, they had to make them weak and diet is the easiest method. You think Bill Gates pushing “fake meat” to the masses is really about saving the environment?

    • Replies: @rec1man
    , @showmethereal
  413. Herald says:
    @Blinky Bill

    And of course she’ll do all she can to avoid the experimental vaccines, that aren’t vaccines. Clever woman.

  414. RSDB says:
    @AKAHorace

    I suspect that you guys wanted to make the place into a country with values like your own rather than accept some things that you didn’t like (absolute monarchy, obedient women, boy rape).

    NATO (or at least the Americans) seem to have made a conscious decision to accept the last of those three; if anything the Taliban were rather less accepting of it.

  415. Truth says:
    @Truth

    My understanding is that Roman Centurions were required to be vegetarian. But then again, most of them were homo, too.

    • Troll: Daniel Chieh

    Who you trollin’, SUKKA!

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  416. @Chinaman

    The point of Daoism is that rather than wasting time to correct your bullshit, it is better to express tacit contempt.

    Also, bring Mao into this again and you will be bitchslapped. Faggot.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  417. @Showmethereal

    Straw man. The US isn’t engaging Russia or China conventionally and won’t be anytime soon.

    • Agree: Sean
  418. @Daniel Chieh

    I did not know what that means. Did you means jet for wormhole technologies and phones and tablets and so on?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  419. rec1man says:
    @dogbumbreath

    In India, upper castes tend to be vegetarian

    Most Brahmins and Merchants are vegetarian

    India has won a handful Olympic medals in Boxing and Wrestling and all of them
    are vegetarian Jats from Haryana ( near Punjab )

    In the southern state of Tamil Nadu,
    the 98% meat eating dravidians need 69% quota to compete vs
    2% vegetarian brahmins

    In India, on a simplistic basis, upper castes are vegetarian, lower castes eat mutton, fish , chicken
    and untouchables eat beef and pork as well as mutton and fish and chicken

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  420. @Johnny Rico

    The simple point is that the American air power is certainly not going to be amassing anything when all of its launch locations are within attack, so unless you have a wormhole to spew out jets, engagement against China or Russia may not even give you local superiority of air power, and even attained, could be very costly and won’t be sustainable over the course of war.

    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
  421. @rec1man

    India is heavily vegetarian and pays a price for it.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6540890/#:~:text=Conclusion%3A,is%20widespread%20in%20Indian%20population.

    This may be more relevant in people from India as large majority of Indian population is vegetarian by food habits.[3] However, population based data reflecting exact scenario of vitamin B12 levels in Indian population is still evolving. Different studies reporting a deficiency ranging from 16% to 77% are summarised in Table 3.[11,12,13,14] In pregnancy, deficiency of vitamin B12 has been estimated to have prevalence of 43% to 74%.[15] Estimate by Shobha et al. seems to be lower than experienced in all other studies and authors attributed it to studied population being largely non-vegetarian by food habits.[12] Current study estimate of prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency at 47.19% agrees with the current understanding of overall status of Indian population [Table 3]. Overall, presence of this large prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency calls for debate on prudence of expensive testing before supplementing in susceptible populations.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @rec1man
  422. @Truth

    As your own rather dubious source notes:

    Instead, the men and women who were made Gladiators were primarily slaves and condemned prisoners. They were given to handlers, known as lanistas, and taught how to fight. The training ensured they would give the best show for the audience and made for more balanced betting…The main part of their diet most likely consisted of barley and beans, which, according to the Daily Mail, were generally lower quality than what the citizens of Rome ate; gladiators were sometimes referred to by the derogatory term “hordearii,” or “barley eaters.” The vegetarian diet of gladiators was likely a cost-cutting measure and allowed people to own many gladiators while keeping overheads low.

    Centurions are not gladiators, additionally. Meat-eating was popular in Rome, and centurions, as officers in the military, would be paid better and have a higher grade of diet than others; indeed, dedicated foragers(including hunters) existed.

    Like most of your other posts, this is nonsense.

    http://www.legioxxirapax.com/zasoby/The_Logistics_of_the_Roman_Army_at_War_(264BC_-_235AD).pdf

    A rescript from the Late Roman period, dated to
    360 A.D., gives the elements of a soldier’s ration as biscuit or bread,
    salt pork (laridum) or mutton, wine or vinegar, oil and salt.120 Indeed,
    there is a remarkable continuity in the categories of foodstuffs consumed by western armies from antiquity onward: (1) bread, (2) salted
    meat, (3) beans (or peas), (4) cheese (or butter), (5) salt and (6) beer,
    wine and later coffee.121 This is not to say that these categories of
    rations were necessarily part of any tradition or continuity, but rather
    that they reflect parts of the western diet suitable for the conditions
    of campaigning.

    For its part, Roman rations definitely included (1) frumentum (grain
    corresponding to the bread ration), and the cibaria was probably
    divided into six categories: (2) meat, especially salt-pork (laridum), (3)
    vegetables, especially lentils and beans ( faba), (4) cheese (caseus), (5) salt
    (sal), and (6) sour wine (acetum). In addition, Roman rations included
    (7) olive oil (oleum), which reflects the importance of this foodstuff in
    ancient diet.

    But I don’t reserve much time in my life to waste on flat earthers anyway.

    • Replies: @Truth
  423. @22pp22

    The ‘warriors’ were in a killing frenzy, best seen on the Kuwait-Basra Highway in the ‘turkey-shoot’. A few minutes with the Chinese or Russians and they’ll turn tail, crying out for their Mom.

  424. @Znzn

    Don’t forget Imperial running-dog, Austfailia, tagging on behind in any Imperial aggression-even one that guarantees self-destruction.

  425. @Vishnugupta

    If only the Argies had had more Exocets, the Malvinas would be free, and Thatcher a dirty foot-note in history. Still the path to ruin and dissolution for the UK that commenced with Thatcher has almost reached its climax. A comeuppance thoroughly well deserved.

  426. Truth says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    As your own rather dubious source notes:

    Well, if it’s rather dubious, why would you use it to make your point?

    From the same article which you saw fit to quote…

    These were the professional soldiers that many Romans idolized, and they needed to be skilled so that the people of Rome might look up to them.

    So, to sum it up, Danier-San…

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  427. Chinaman says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    May be you should do some introspection to resolve your complex with Mao and homosexuality or get some external help after that emotional outburst.

    Perhaps this quote to Lao Tsu (most likely wrongly attributed) is apt in this case “ If you are depressed, you are living in the past.” Seems like you need should shed the yoke of history and start looking ahead. That’s what China did to get to where it is. I rather you bitchslap me on the dangers of mRNA or yuan appreciation than Confucianism.

    All that “new age” philosophy and foot-binding didn’t get us anywhere. Please don’t start flaunting your knowledge on Chinese history as you are wont to do. I am so over that.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  428. @Truth

    Its the usual point: that you’re wrong even with your own sources.

    Any further time is wasted. Work on your reading comprehension if you want to understand anything.

    • Replies: @Truth
    , @Truth
  429. antibeast says:
    @Chinaman

    All that “new age” philosophy and foot-binding didn’t get us anywhere. Please don’t start flaunting your knowledge on Chinese history as you are wont to do. I am so over that.

    As someone who claims to be ‘Chinese’, your label of East Asian philosophy as ‘new age’ doesn’t even do justice to several thousand years of East Asian Civilization. And, yes, ‘foot-binding’ has been used by Western Orientalists for decades to discredit traditional Chinese Culture, as did the treacherous May 4th Movement intellectuals who completely abandoned East Asia Civilization in favor of Chinese Occidentalism which is the obverse of Western Orientalism. But traditional Chinese Culture which has been preserved in the Overseas Chinese diaspora is more than ‘foot-binding’ while Classical Chinese Culture is now being revived throughout China. As for Communism, China has already abandoned ‘Marxism-Leninism’ for ‘Confucianism’, albeit in its modern technocratic industrial form, similar to the rest of modern East Asia, to wit: ‘Social Harmony’ instead of ‘Class-Struggle’; ‘Political Meritocracy’ instead of ‘Dictatorship of the Proletariat’; ‘Social Entrepreneurship’ instead of ‘Abolition of Private Enterprise’ and ‘International Trade’ instead of ‘Perpetual Revolution’.

    Here’s a video of a festival celebrating the birthday of 黄帝, the ancestor of all Chinese people:

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  430. @Caspar Von Everec

    >The F/A 18 only has a combat range of 700 km and sortie rates are low for carrier based aircraft to begin with.

    I find it hard to believe that the Super Hornet can only go 700 km in an air-to-air configuration hi-hi-hi scenario.

    I’d put more faith in the Taiwanese AF and less in the actual quality of Chinese J-10s and T-10s copies. Any word of how these handled in exercises against the Russians?

    Most of the newer and much flaunted Chinese ships are quite small and a quantity as well-known as their aircraft. Their submarines are famous for rivaling an AC/DC concert noise level-wise. As far as we can tell right now, the People’s Liberation armed forces might very well be a paper tiger.

    Getting a severely bloodied nose over Taiwan might not be something the Chicoms are willing to risk, as it will only confirm suspicions that their military is not all that’s cracked up to be.

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  431. @Blinky Bill

    Why is not the Chinese state stopping the spread of Oxycontin in China? If they won’t solve the issue themselves, then don’t expect anyone to fix it for them. Are there awareness of the issue in Chinese language media?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  432. @Rattus Norwegius

    The Party hasn’t gotten around to it. When the Party wants something fixed, it usually is – sometimes at tremendous collateral cost.

  433. @showmethereal

    I didn’t say they can’t engage in BVR combat. Sure they can if they are equipped with the R-37M or the R-77-1.

    The problem is that their inferior sensors and high RCS make them unlikley to survive the encounter. As the west has LPI AESA radars and the Russian Aircraft like the S-35S have average RCS of over 1.

    Western fighters like the Rafale or Typhoon have RCS of about .1. Thus, in any engagement they will see the Russians long before the Russians see them, and will be able to maneuver into a favorable attack run or set up an ambush.

    Plus, Russian aircraft use PESA radars. PESA radars have higher probability of intercept and are more susceptible to jamming as they operate on a narrower bandwidth.

    AESA radars are more stealthy and very difficult to jam

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  434. @iffen

    What’s there to be sarcastic about? The F-35 is by far the most advanced fighter in the world.

    It incoporates revolutionary technologies like the distributed aperture system. Its so stealthy that an S-400 would only pick it up when its 50 km away from it. The F-35 is also unmatched in its compuational capabilities.

    It has sensor fusion and can incorporate data from multiple onboard sensors, AWACS, ELINT and ground based assets to create a real time full picture of the battlespace. Its computer runs on a million lines of code and can create firing solutions or judgments about targets by judging upto 228 variables. In contrast, most aircraft use a dozen or so variables.

    Its APG-81 is a third generation AESA radar with no equal.

    In red flag exercises, rookie pilots straight out of flight school flying the F-35 defeated Lt. Colonels and veteran ace pilots of the USAF flying F-15C or F-16V.

    Its sole problem is its low full mission capability rate but these are problems that typically hound a new and revolutioanry technology. The Russians have been working on the Su-57 since 2002 and they’ve only fielded 2 serial aircraft as of 2021. And even still, they have not completed developing the Izdeliye 30. The engine will only be available by the mid 2020s.

    Meaning that the full SU-57 will only appear on the skies by 2025, a full 23 years after start of development. In contrast, there are already 500 F-35s in front line service. And they’ve been used effectively by the Israelis against Syria.

    • Thanks: iffen
    • Replies: @showmethereal
  435. Chinaman says:
    @antibeast

    My grandmother was foot binded. She lived to 103 but spent the last 20 years of her life bed ridden due to that debilitating condition. Don’t need to lecture me about that cause you have no idea what it is actually like.

    Everything that can be said about Chinese history and traditional Chinese culture have been said and reguitated\analyse ad nauseam. We don’t need another interpretation. We can all make our own judgment and believe whatever we want. Not interested in any -ism …or revisionism.

    Philosophy can be separated as being pre-darwin and post-darwin. Anything pre-darwin is “new age”and not informed by reality. Nothing to do with culture or race. There have been too many pseudosciences and false religions in history which have done more harm than good.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  436. Reaper says:
    @reiner Tor

    They had problems in both (trained crew and production) in 44.

    They had problem to replace crew because:
    1. Lack of training capabilities:
    – Lack of fuel to train properly
    – Destroyed infrastructure: includes airfields/ training facilities. Allied strategic bombing was devastating.

    2. New precision crafts:
    – Too wide range of new crafts (new “superweapons”) – sometimes crew get different ones in action than trained to use
    – Craft was too difficult both in engineering (leading reason why they lost the production war), and harder to use/ drive effectively
    – Because of both crew often abadoned for example tanks because broke down and nobody has clue how to fix them, so in multiple cases tanks not even reach the batllefield

    3. Defensive tanks:
    While in the begining of war the Reich have relative mobile and less protected/ less firepower tanks from 43 they produced “heavy monsters” with incredible armor and firepower. Clearly new types were better for defensive warfare than a mobile/ offensive one.

    I still see point 2. as an attitude problem.
    Both US and USSR fare better (on the strategic scale) because they used only several type, standardised, mass produced, relative “undemanding”, relatively easy to use (learn/ drive) tanks.
    So both have the advantage to (produce) replace craft and crew.

    Probably point 3. is the same.
    More often than not who make craft predominantly with defensive capabilities lose part of the initiative in war.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  437. @RSDB

    The external threat could have been stopped and destroyed by American air power, but the American Congress and public opposed any further military intervention. The North Vietnamese armored divisions were in grave danger spread out on the narrow roads of South Vietnam.

    • Agree: RSDB
    • Replies: @RSDB
  438. antibeast says:
    @Chinaman

    My grandmother was foot binded. She lived to 103 but spent the last 20 years of her life bed ridden due to that debilitating condition. Don’t need to lecture me about that cause you have no idea what it is actually like.

    So was my grandmother. But that condition didn’t stop her from imparting traditional Chinese Culture to her children who raised our family. The practice of ‘foot-binding’ was a sort of a fashion statement which was used to fetishize single women with small feet. Nothing more than that. The idea that traditional Chinese Culture should be discredited due to the practice of ‘foot-binding’ is typical Orientalist trope. Traditional Chinese Culture has lots of time-honored values which has been preserved in East and Southeast Asia, albeit modified to suit ‘modern’ times. Getting rid of those traditional values is tantamount to nihilism which characterize much of the deracinated West today.

    Everything that can be said about Chinese history and traditional Chinese culture have been said and regurgitated\analyse ad nauseam. We don’t need another interpretation. We can all make our own judgment and believe whatever we want. Not interested in any -ism …or revisionism.

    Not at all. Those critics of traditional and Classical Chinese Culture such as the May 4th Movement deserve to be criticized based on what has transpired in Asia and the West during the last 100 years. What you call ‘New Age’ philosophy is what the post-Meiji Japanese intellectuals call kokutai or National Essence which was based on the worship of the Japanese Emperor in the official religion of State Shinto. The kokutai is the immutable essence which is defined by the history, culture, religion and people of Japan, as distinct from seitai which refers to the changing forms of government as adapted to modern times. The former addresses the question ‘what kind of people are we?’ while the latter provides the ideology for ‘what kind of politics should we have?’ Those are two very different questions — one spiritual, the other temporal — and both must be in accord with each other to make the body-politic whole.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  439. @iffen

    The American military was withdrawn from the conflict by its political masters. No military could win if it’s withdrawn from the war.

    • Replies: @iffen
  440. @d dan

    North Vietnam has endless supply of support from China (and some from Soviet)

    I believe some 80% came from the USSR. Especially the more high tech supplies.

  441. @threestars

    Their submarines are famous for rivaling an AC/DC concert noise level-wise.

    Your information appears to be quite dated. That was true of their nuclear subs in the 1990s. The diesel-electric subs (some of them Russian imports) were obviously less noisy than the nuclear subs, but their range was quite limited, like all diesel-electric subs. The Chinese have recently figured out how to make relatively quiet nuclear submarines, too, even if perhaps the American submarines are quieter still. But it’s already at the point where it won’t be the noise level which is decisive.

  442. iffen says:
    @reiner Tor

    Yeah, right, just when there was light at the end of that long tunnel. Just a few more divisions, just a few more decades: that’s all we need to wrap this up.

    Compare it to Afghanistan. The military dislodged the Taliban from power in the population centers and removed the terrorist training camps, etc. We “won” that war. Now from the beginning we started losing the occupation and that loss should wrap up within 2-3 years. So I say that the military won the war, but immediately started losing the occupation.

    Not so in Vietnam. They never “won” before they started losing the occupation.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  443. Chinaman says:
    @antibeast

    The idea that traditional Chinese Culture should be discredited

    Ok, to be sure, I am not discrediting or denouncing traditional 2000 years of Chinese culture in its entirety of course. I might have generalized a bit to draw the ire of some but that kind of forced conformity and the charge of 離經畔道 is why every generation of Chinese intellectual rile against that thought straitjacket. I think we agree that Chinese culture is more than just the rote memorization of Confucian ideals or the belief in Taoism. In this day and age, I hope we can finally decide what kind of chinaman we want to be and form my own beliefs as long as I am loyal to my country and my people. You can have a “good” Chinese upbringing and subscribe to all traditional Chinese values but still a Hanjian… As many are. Being Chinese is a genetic identity and not a mission\value statement.

    I have always said that Confucianism is a 2000 year eugenics programme so most of what is important about the Chinese culture would have been passed on through the Chinese gene pool.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  444. Truth says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Aaaah, Danier-San. Runce again, you have resisted the opportunity to rearn!

    The originar post (in rich you were not invarved) was this…

    This is universal. Meat eaters fight like animals. Vegetable eaters fight like vegetables.

    The major point of this young man’s thesis is that the meat content in a man’s diet is proportioner to his abirity to FIGHT.

    Now Danier-San, your master is very, very old, he occasionary confrates rords such as “Gradiator” and “Centurion,” this is not major point Danier-San. Major point is the cororration betreen eating mean and fighting abirity.

    My response was a forrowed…

    My understanding is that Roman Centurions were required to be vegetarian. But then again, most of them were homo, too.

    Reather we speak of Centurions or Gradiators, both are roman rariors who fight for a riving! And as my rink proved, the centurions ROOKED UP to the Gradiators.

    Now Danier-San, your master is Firosopher by trade, you are cyber coder. Does your Master charrange your abirrities in riting Furr Stack Code?

    My response was this…

    • Troll: Daniel Chieh
  445. Truth says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Now Danier-San, Amenominakanushi the Great has assigned us orr our raynes in rife. The traffic to the market move much more smoovree if ree stay in them!

  446. antibeast says:
    @Chinaman

    I might have generalized a bit to draw the ire of some but that kind of forced conformity and the charge of 離經畔道 is why every generation of Chinese intellectual rile against that thought straitjacket.

    There are certain aspects of neo-Confucianism that are still applicable to ‘modern’ China such as Zhu Xi’s spiritualistic rationalism which could provide a meaningful alternative to the materialistic rationalism of ‘modern’ China. Contrary to its detractors such as the so-called ‘New Culture Movement’ (新文化運動), the Song Neo-Confucianists were the first ‘rationalist’ philosophers of the medieval world, antedating the Western Enlightenment by five centuries, until the Manchu rulers introduced the medieval mysticism of Tibetan Buddhism to the Qing Dynasty, which lasted until the Hans founded the Republic of China in 1912. But the search for the ‘modern’ soul of China has lasted to this day, which can be found only in the culture, history, tradition and people of China. After all, what Chinese are as a people is not defined by their seitei or form of government but by their kukotai or ‘national essence’.

    I have always said that Confucianism is a 2000 year eugenics programme so most of what is important about the Chinese culture would have been passed on through the Chinese gene pool.

    State Confucianism promoted ‘political meritocracy’ which was based on academic qualifications. This system was largely unchanged until the Manchu rulers created their own Manchu nobility which was exempt from the Imperial Examination System. This ‘Confucianist’ ethos of East Asia has survived to this day which explains the high degree of social respect and political support for the academically qualified to run ‘modern’ China, quite unlike the ‘Oligarchic’ ethos of the Capitalist West. Beyond the social and political, the moral and spiritual traditions of Confucianism also exist which binds the people to a place in the World, a past in History and a presence in the Universe.

    China should avoid the cultural nihilism of the anti-Confucian, anti-Asian and pro-Western ‘New Culture Movement’ (新文化運動) which promoted sexual hedonism and intellectual dilettantism. If those intellectuals were alive today, they would be promoting LGBTQ rights, gay marriage, negro worship, gangster rap and other Western fads. Both Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek condemned the ‘New Culture Movement’ which contravenes the modern project of building a national identity based on a Chinese kukotai or ‘national essence’ as well as reviving China as a Civilization.

  447. RSDB says:
    @reiner Tor

    Pretty much, like in’72.

    If Watergate had been a North Viet action it would have been the most successful one they ever undertook.

    It’s a little funny that anyone predicting Afghanistan would be “another Vietnam” would be more or less right about Afghanistan but wrong or at least inaccurate about Vietnam.

    • Replies: @Znzn
  448. Smith says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    That sounds kinda fucked up but I believe as long it will only work only a population that is willingly to submit i.e. a population that did nothing to resist brainchipping.

    A population that is rebellious/not willing to submit on the other hand, even if you put all kind of high tech monitoring and putting them all in jail/re-education, that will just instill more hatred from them upon the ruling class and edges more rebellion.

    @ reiner Tor

    True, China even took some of the supplies that the USSR sent to Vietnam through China as their own. And the USSR promised they would do everything to help North Vietnam if it is invaded by the USA, this is why USA never did invade, even when during the China-USSR split.

    But the USSR help extended far beyond the American war, post-1975 when the chinese invaded and then teamed up with the americans to sanction Vietnam along with ASEAN, only the USSR and the Warsaw pacts provide help and supplies that sustained the country.

    That’s why we Viets always feel comradeship and brotherhood with the eastern europeans (russians, poles, czechs, east germans), they were closer to us than the chinese and Singapore-led ASEAN ever were.

  449. @Daniel Chieh

    That point isn’t even intelligible nevermind simple.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  450. @Reaper

    They had problems in both (trained crew and production) in 44.

    Well in the Battle of the Bulge they had lots of tanks and other armored vehicles with untrained crews, so clearly they found it easier to replace the tanks than the crews. The same was true of aircraft, most German pilots after spring 1944 had very little training, which obviously means that the planes were replaced but not the pilots.

  451. Chinaman says:
    @antibeast

    If those intellectuals were alive today, they would be promoting LGBTQ rights, gay marriage, negro worship, gangster rap and other Western fads.

    Well.. That’s exactly what is going on in Taiwan… One could argue it is the Confucian thought straitjacket, which until 30 years ago was alive and well in Taiwan, that have pushed the millennials to rebel against it and go completely in the other direction as a form of virtue signaling. Politics have a lot to do with it of course.

    As I said, technology have changed everything and you can’t really control what people should think anymore ( at least those with more than a 2 digit IQ). People choose whatever they want to believe in the supermarket of -isms and any form of proselytzing have the exact opposite effect.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  452. antibeast says:
    @Chinaman

    Well.. That’s exactly what is going on in Taiwan… One could argue it is the Confucian thought straitjacket, which until 30 years ago was alive and well in Taiwan, that have pushed the millennials to rebel against it and go completely in the other direction as a form of virtue signaling. Politics have a lot to do with it of course.

    The West pressured the ROC government to ‘democratize’ its politics by allowing elections in Taiwan in the 90s. That’s how gangsters managed to secure 30% of the elected seats in Taiwan’s National Assembly back then. What followed next were the LGBTQA crowd, gangsta rap, negro worship, gay marriage and other Western junk imported from the USA. But Taiwanese society is still pretty conservative as the Taiwanese still follow the traditional Chinese Culture inherited from the mainland Chinese who fled there with Chiang Kai-shek. The mainland Chinese are far more ‘liberal’ than the Taiwanese and other Overseas Chinese in Asia due to the influence of Maoist Communism in the PRC which tried to ‘deracinate’ the mainland Chinese by turning them into the proverbial proletariat. Ironically, Deng’s market reforms allowed the mainland Chinese to revive their traditional Chinese Culture which precipitated the rise of Chinese Nationalism in the PRC.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  453. @Caspar von Everec

    I think you vastly overstate your case. Most of the best NATO fighters are stationed far away from Russia (and I’m not sure how eager France would be to send all of its Rafales to Eastern Europe), and it’d take some time to redeploy them closer to Russia. By the time Poland deploys its JSFs Russia will also have a sizable fleet of Su-57 fighters supported by a number of Grom and Okhotnik drones. It’s not like the current Polish, Romanian or Turkish air forces are more developed than the Russian Air Force.

    Also the Russians have spent the past few decades planning around their weaknesses, like attacking enemy air bases and support infrastructure with ballistic missiles, having a dense network of air defense assets, special long wave radars to detect the presence of stealth planes, keeping away more visible targets like tanker planes and AWACS, etc.

    Also you seem to have a vastly inflated view of the F-35’s abilities. Its stealth is compromised by not having proper low observability from behind (it never made sense to me, sure it must eventually turn around after having unloaded its weapons), and even from the side its stealth is much weaker than its frontal stealth.

    While I agree that it is probably more advanced than any other fighter jet, it has a number of deficiencies, especially in an air superiority role, which would make it less capable against state-of-the-art enemy aircraft like the Su-57 or the J-20.

    The main deficiencies of the F-35 are a lack of a supercruise capability (in the case of the C and B variants even its ability to fly supersonic with an afterburner are pretty limited), its limited range, and its low (for an air superiority fighter) rate of climb, the first and the third are not very advantageous when trying to kill its opponents BVR.

    In red flag exercises, rookie pilots straight out of flight school flying the F-35 defeated Lt. Colonels and veteran ace pilots of the USAF flying F-15C or F-16V.

    I have read more modest claims, and even those were disputed, so it’d be nice to see a source here.

    I think you might also overstate the computing capacity.

  454. @iffen

    In Vietnam they did force an advantageous settlement on the North Vietnamese, who basically lost the guerrilla war in the sense that they didn’t have the ability to sustain it. After a lull in the fighting 1973-75, they finally resorted to a conventional armored invasion of South Vietnam. The South Vietnamese made a few devastating errors in the beginning, but the US Air Force could’ve stopped the offensive by bombing the crap out of the North Vietnamese armored divisions, which was possible. After that the North Vietnamese would have had no cards up their sleeves.

  455. Znzn says:
    @RSDB

    The Soviets did not really lose any large battles in Afghanistan either.

  456. BB753 says:
    @22pp22

    Victory in Afghanistan means controlling the poppy fields. It’s still a mess and a pedophile’s wet dream. While victory in Irak means controlling the gas pipelines and setting up military bases in the area, mostly for the benefit of big corporations, Saudi Arabia and Israel. What exactly has been accomplished by removing Saddam Hussein and Ghadaffi? Total chaos.
    Current shock and awe policies aka gunboat diplomacy basically amount to genocide and grift, and it’s rotting America from inside out.
    No, the US military is not designed to combat strong military forces like China, Russia or Iran. The second US air and naval supremacy is challenged by a modern military force with matching airpower and icbm strike capacity, the US military capacity is basically null, a giant with feet of clay.

  457. @reiner Tor

    Good points. I agree that its not an insurmountable obstacle.

    The Russian strategy seems to be an offensive defense. The solution is to attack NATO airbases and destroy them on the ground.

    I believe that’s why Russia is developing the Khinzal missile. The Iskander-M and the Kinzhal are imo the most deadly Russian weapons. About 300-500 Kinzhals and Iskanders can probably destroy all NATO air assets and command posts in Eastern Europe and Germany. The Kinzhal has a range of 2000 km and a burnout speed of mach 9-11, this along with its ability to maneuver makes it nearly unstoppable.

    If it really has a CEP of 3 m then it can destroy NATO aircraft in hardened bunkers as well. If not, then it can still destroy control towers, fuel depots and ammuntion storage, and render these aircraft unusable. The Kalibir missile is highly capable as well and imo one of the best anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles out there.

    The question is whether Russia has so many missiles, and the issue of storage. A big cost missiles is storage. For example, the US left the Mujahideen in Afghanistan with thousands of stinger missiles yet they were unable to use any of them later on. Its because the heat seeking sensors deteriorate without maintenance and proper storage.

    Since Iskander and Kinzhal are solid fuel propelled missiles with inertial guidance and electro-optical targeting, I think it might be possible to store them in the thousands like Iran stores missiles in the thousands.

    Don’t know how many cruise missiles the Russians have. Numbers range from 1400-2000.

    As for air defense, I think the sound strategy is to have a sort of defense in depth against the F-35s. Have a dense mesh of S-400s but keep most of their radars in passive mode. Scan the skies from afar with AWACS using low frequency radars. LFRs can detect stealth but they can’t provide a targeting solution due to the low resolution.

    Ultimately the plan is probably to lure the F-35 within firing range of an S-400 battery. Since they’ll be camouflaged and in passive mode, the F-35 will probably veer unaware into a firing spot. At about 50 km or so, the S-400 will be able to clearly see the F-35 and provide a firing solution.

    At that range, its practically impossible to escape active homing missiles travelling at mach 7 or more. The F-35 has low maneuverability to begin with. An S-300 could kill an F-35 this way as well.

    The S-400s chances will be greatly increased if it has an AESA radar with LPI characteristics. There are many conflicting claims on this regard, some say the S-400 does have AESA others say they it doesn’t. However, the Nebro-M radar seems to be a major upgrade and the increased computational capacity facilitated by a large mobile ground radar will increase the odds.

    However, all these assume that the F-35s will be engaged in a deep strike behind Russian lines. The thing is that these strategies are not applicable close to the front lines. Over contested air space Russian Su-27 derivatives will be mauled by the F-35. Russian SAMS can provide cover some 30-50 km from the front lines. But scanning in active mode will render them vulnerable to attack by anti-radiation missiles and glide bombs.

    So the Russian air force will have to tightly follow the Russian army and not be able to project power any further. Russians will have to rely on their artillery.

    The F-35 is kind of like the Polish Hussars of the 17th century. The Russians were fine were as long as they stuck to their defenses and barricades, but as soon as they sallied out to fight them on open ground they’d be butchered.

    Though in fairness, similar fates befell Germans and Turks as well. The Hussars even mauled the Swedes repeatedly, the strongest army of that era.

    The Russians certainly have a plan but its better to have an aircraft capable of fighting the F-35 head on.

    • Replies: @128
  458. @Spect3r

    The German army only has 65,000 troops. Its barely even an army nowadays

  459. CCZ says:
    @Chinaman

    UnitreeRobotics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China:

  460. 128 says:
    @Caspar Von Everec

    There are always B-2s and F-22s if you really want to go all in, and people seem to be overly bearish on the F-35 just because it is American, and are discounting the fact that the Su-57 may turn out to be a Brewster Buffalo as well and does not work out as well as advertised, plus Hungary for instance has Grippens, Austria and Germany have Eurofighters and Tornados,Poland has F-16s and modernized MiG-29s, and Finland has F/A-18, all those are capable of giving Russian Su-27s, MiG-29s, and Su-30s a tough time.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  461. 128 says:

    I mean legacy NATO jets should be the equal of whatever 4th generation jets the Russians have.

  462. Reaper says:
    @Johnny Rico

    “The schwerpunkt.”

    Nope, there are US bases all around the planet.
    Forces are scattered among them.
    I doubt they will close dozens of bases just to drop their forces somewhere else.

    “Tactical, operational, and strategic surprise can only be achieved simultaneously by the United States. ”

    What surprise?
    US always do the groundwork before attacks, sometimes for years. “Saddam – Nukular weapons” as the young Bush repeated for more than a year. And usually not alone.
    Tactical and operational insight: many have because there are many NATO members.

    Quite sure in Sweden the stealth navy, or Switzerland can do far more surprises, the Swiss even can defend themselves properly, not just make surprises.

  463. @Anatoly Karlin

    You have to remember that French women complained that American soldiers were sex crazed and much less disciplined than German soldiers during WW2.

    Vietnam actually saw Americans behave pretty sadistically. Agent Orange was just one method, not as bad as Germans in Belarus, but still awful.

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  464. @4Dchessmaster

    American soldiers had a chocolate bars and nylon stockings.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Reaper
  465. @Zarathustra

    They were also not hated by the population. That said, blacks sometimes couldn’t help being blacks, and even whites probably had lower discipline, so on average they might well have committed more rapes than the Germans. But I’m pretty agnostic on the issue, haven’t read much about it.

    • Agree: Zarathustra
  466. antibeast says:
    @Johnny Rico

    What Daniel is saying is that US fighter jets need US aircraft carriers or US airfields to launch attacks against either China or Russia. But those US aircraft carriers and US airfields will be attacked during the course of the war which implies ipso facto that US theater of operations will be disrupted by disabling both fixed and mobile launch platforms for US fighter jets such as the F-15E Strike Eagles and F-18 Super Hornets. Those US fighter jets would also encounter missile defense systems such as the Russia’s S-400 or China’s HQ-17AE, thereby negating whatever tactical, operational, and strategic surprise that can be achieved simultaneously by the United States against China or Russia.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @A123
  467. Blade says:
    @Lester

    Egyptian state would not be interested in any conflict with Turkey. On paper their army is closer to Turkey than Greece’s, but in the field they would be destroyed. Remember spending or equipment is not everything as seen in the failures of UAE and KSA in Yemen (one of the poorest countries on earth). Greece isn’t even close. It would be a total destruction for them. That’s why their whole war plan against Turkey is to strike first and unexpectedly and give Turkey a bloody nose, they assume NATO would stop it quickly but can’t imagine Turkey would refuse to stop in such event. Of course these are hypothetical cases. They may also believe that Europe or Russia might fight for them, but this is not 19th century. Egypt would neither have will nor a reason to fight Turkey, populace is friendly. Greek army mostly knows they aren’t Turkey’s match and often warn Greeks in a way that would not offend their hysterical (and ignorant) people, but they usually don’t get it. Turkey is also not interested in a war unless provoked.

    From what I heard from a Royal Navy officer, Turkey could hold on its own against the EU. So I am skeptical of these lists as they magnify spending, and numbers without factoring in other stuff particularly the quality and the motivations of soldiers and nations.

    • Replies: @TheJamesRocket
    , @Reaper
  468. @antibeast

    the Song Neo-Confucianists were the first ‘rationalist’ philosophers of the medieval world, antedating the Western Enlightenment by five centuries

    Buddhism was something like the state religion during Tang (6-9CE). It was not a forgone conclusion that Confucianism would ever make a comeback.

    But it did in the form of Cheng-Zhu School 程朱理學 during Song (11CE), which syncretized ideas from Buddhism (especially Zen) and Taoism.

    There were scientific-like ideas in Cheng-Zhu School, such as gewu 格物, Investigation of Things. But I wouldn’t put them on the same level of impact as the Enlightenment Thinkers.

    After all who knows if and when China could have on its own started the Industrial Revolution. There is a intellectual straitjacketing effect of 程朱理學

    until the Manchu rulers introduced the medieval mysticism of Tibetan Buddhism to the Qing Dynasty

    Manchu’s may bought along Lamaism, but Cheng-Zhu School was still upheld as ruling orthodoxy throughout Qing, for better or worse. Especially was so by the Great Han Chinese Retainers, Zeng Guofan and Li Hongzhang, assumed much power from Manchus after putting down the Taipings.

    Zeng with his Xiang Army in particular could have been capable to overthrow the Manchus. But opted not to out of respect for old school Neo-Confucianism.

    The heterodox school Neo-Confucianism is Lu-Wang school 陆王心学 of Wang Yangming. Which focuses on intuition rather than complex rationalization 心即是理; Theory-And-Action-in-One 知行合一

    Wang Yangming’s ideas took off in Japan, where the Samurais adopted the belief that more than rote scholastic learning, the warriors can reach sage-enlightenment through focused practice of Kendo, Judo, Aikido, in addition to meditation.

    The Japanese Admiral of the Russo-Japanese War, Tōgō Heihachirō, was influenced by Wang, and made a stamp which read, “One’s whole life followed the example of Yangming” (一生低首拜陽明).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Yangming#Influence

  469. Chinaman says:
    @antibeast

    Taiwanese society is still pretty conservative as the Taiwanese still follow the traditional Chinese Culture inherited from the mainland Chinese who fled there with Chiang Kai-shek.

    May be in Taipei… But once you are 100km out of Taipei city. Local culture reign. Taichung and Tainan is pretty “raw” And worst than some parts of China if you ask me. I guess you won’t find any traditional Chinese culture in the KTVs or with the 檳榔西施. Impressed with all the erudition but 讀萬卷書不如行里路。

  470. A123 says:
    @antibeast

    What Daniel is saying is that US fighter jets need US aircraft carriers or US airfields to launch attacks against either China or Russia

    The U.S. has no interest in invading China. Any scenario based on a headlong rush at Chinese mainland defenses combines an invalid strategy with incompetent tactics. It is easy to create unrealistic scenarios where the stupid side loses.

    As I pointed out to Blinky Biden the Troll, a more realistic scenario is use of U.S. military force to oppose China via the Indian Ocean. A valid U.S. strategy combined with competent tactics presents the current Chinese military with little opportunity to respond. Flying bombers through Pakistani airspace would yield predictable attacks from an easy anticipated direction.

    Even with strict rationing, the currently available supply of hydrocarbons to the Chinese economy falls far short of the need if Persian Gulf oil is cut off. And, the supply could be further limited by damaging immobile transport infrastructure in China such as pipelines and railway bridges.
    ____

    Ask yourself this question:

    If supercarriers are “useless” and easily targeted — Why is China building one?

    It is quite clear that the Chinese military strongly disagrees with Blinky Biden the Troll’s assessment. They believe that carriers are essential to Chinese military strategy.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Blinky Bill
  471. antibeast says:
    @A123

    If supercarriers are “useless” and easily targeted — Why is China building one?

    Methinks you’re confusing China’s strategic intent with its ‘blue water’ navy.

    China wants to build a ‘blue water’ navy to project its naval power outside the ‘first island chain’ not to engage in an “air-sea battle” with the US Navy in the SCS. China could deploy its four aircraft carriers all over the world, especially along its BRI routes, to protect its maritime trade.

    Looking at East Asia, the US military faces not just China but also Russia and North Korea, not one but three nuclear-armed States facing two non-nuclear-armed US allies, Japan and South Korea. China could destroy the handful of US military bases in Japan, South Korea and Okinawa in a few weeks of missile strikes. China could then impose a naval blockade on Japan and South Korea to force them to surrender by deploying China’s diesel-electric Type 039A AIP submarines which could be used to sink oil tankers and container ships. The US Navy has only 10 Nimitz-class aircraft carriers which are vulnerable to China’s DF-17s or DF-26Ds. In the meantime, China could dispatch its J-20s to engage the US Navy’s squadrons of F/A-18 Super Hornets near the Chinese coast. If the J-20s don’t kill them off in air-to-air BVR combat, then the S-400s would finish the job.

    In conclusion, aircraft carriers are useful only if they can avoid getting attacked with IRMs. But China has deployed thousands of IRMs which is the largest arsenal of such missiles in the world. Both the USA and Russia have only begun deploying them in recent years because they were banned under the now defunct INF treaty which excluded China. So what happened was that China bet the farm on its IRMs over the last two decades while the INF treaty was in effect. Any US-China military conflict in East Asia could potentially see the USA losing not just the short-lived war but also its military presence in Japan and South Korea, which ipso facto would imply the end of its Empire in East Asia.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  472. rec1man says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    In India, most of the upper castes, brahmins and merchants are vegetarian – by choice – the lower castes eat meat ; The meat restriction is only for the upper castes like brahmins and merchants ; there is no meat restriction on the 75% lower castes

    The meat eating lower castes need lots of affirmative action quotas, 50% to 69% ;

    The most physically robust Indians, who win Olympic boxing and wrestling medals are Hindu Jats , who are also vegetarian

    In Tamil Nadu, the 98% lower caste meat eating dravidians, need 69% quota to compete with the 2% vegetarian brahmins

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Lin
  473. @rec1man

    This has zero relevance to my listed paper and a lack of sourcing does not give confidence.

  474. profnasty says:
    @Rich

    Victory at the cost of national bankruptcy. And it’s not over yet. Our Jolligarchs are in preparation to fight Russia. That should seal the deal.

  475. @Caspar von Everec

    What makes you think an S400 can only see the F35 at 50km away…??? And talking about the SU57 performance when the F35 with it’s only one engine has small range – low relative ceiling and low relative speed.
    That’s aside from its very shaky reliability ….

  476. @Daniel Chieh

    I ate meat… But no we don’t know. There are some vegans who I know you would not want to meet in a dark alley…. my point about the animals mentioned is that a buffalo can gore a lion – and a hippo can snap a lions back with one bite. Meat eating and strength don’t equate.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  477. @dogbumbreath

    It wasn’t losing buffalo as a food source. They didn’t eat that many. That’s why there were millions when the white man showed up.
    I eat meat – but meat has little to do with strong. I know weak meat eaters and strong vegans. Just like the horse and buffalo are very very strong. Again – I’m a meat eater – I’m not anti meat. But most importantly it’s not about meat. Read my analogy again about predator and prey relationships.

  478. @reiner Tor

    Agree with your comment about the F35 being overrated. In 2021 even it’s vaunted computing capacity is overrated.

  479. @antibeast

    I have read the US are spending billions to develop and deploy IRM’s – but of course they are having problems putting them anywhere except Guam. But what the boosters don’t seem to realize is – just as China can build naval ships faster and for less many than the US – so it is with IRM’s. Not to mention China holds the advantage in terms of tech related to those missiles.

    As an aside… I doubt South Korea gets involved if God forbid that war happened

    • Replies: @antibeast
  480. J Lee says:
    @Erik Sieven

    Every arm of the military except for special forces and drones have lagged in upgrades and procurement since the start of the forever wars in the sandbox. Anything new that came out in the past decade is just the backend of cold war era programs severely cut down. That’s almost 20 years without investing for a future that we won’t see for another 20 years. Whatever Trump did and he was allowed very little will not manifest itself in the next decade.

  481. Lin says:
    @rec1man

    The meat eating lower castes need lots of affirmative action quotas, 50% to 69% ;

    The most physically robust Indians, who win Olympic boxing and wrestling medals are Hindu Jats , who are also vegetarian.
    In Tamil Nadu, the 98% lower caste meat eating dravidians, need 69% quota to compete with the 2% vegetarian brahmins

    The data you quoted might be empirically correct but mispresented. The better off brahmins likely have sufficient dairy protein source. The lower caste Indians eat meat; yes but ‘the amount of meat consumed in India has remained small. At less than 4kg per person(/yr)’ according to
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-47057341
    https://www.globalhungerindex.org/ranking.html
    (I vividly remember how you extrapolated indian IQ that all(/most of) the indian nobel laureates are southern brahmins which only constitute a very small% of indian population)
    ………..
    To showmethereal
    Herbivores are different from carnivores/omnivores that they can synthesize protein from plant food through bacteria fermentation in their stomach. A cow usually is more muscular than a predator wolf.
    https://medium.com/a-microbiome-scientist-at-large/how-does-a-1-200-pound-cow-get-enough-protein-506797b53845

  482. @showmethereal

    Our reference point of comparison for humans should be other humans, as we share common anatomical features. One of the shared features is a single stomach so we cannot gain as much nutrition from vegetables as rudiment herbivores; but even without considering that, meat is more calorically dense and has more vitamins necessary for muscle growth. Additionally, meat contains creatine that has been shown to increase overall muscle gain.

    https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/creatine-for-muscle-and-strength

    I’m sure that a vegetarian, especially one that still consumes animal products can also bulk up, but it would be with greater difficulty.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  483. antibeast says:
    @showmethereal

    I have read the US are spending billions to develop and deploy IRM’s – but of course they are having problems putting them anywhere except Guam. But what the boosters don’t seem to realize is – just as China can build naval ships faster and for less many than the US – so it is with IRM’s. Not to mention China holds the advantage in terms of tech related to those missiles.

    China has a two decade time-lead over the USA in the development and deployment of IRMs. In terms of technology, China is ahead of the USA which doesn’t have any equivalent missiles similar to the DF-17 or DF-26D.

    Methinks the advent of hypersonic missiles shifts the balance of power from sea-based navies to land-based armies. Not only can China produce more IRMs faster than naval ships but large numbers of IRMs can be deployed rapidly on highly mobile TELs while US naval ships require years to build and weeks to deploy. That time-lag for naval reinforcements is fatal in a short war.

    As an aside… I doubt South Korea gets involved if God forbid that war happened.

    If war breaks out between China and the USA, China will attack US military bases in South Korea in addition to those in Japan and Okinawa. The question is how China can convince Japan and South Korea to rescind their defense ties with the USA which is more of a political problem than a military solution.

    What those stupid gringos don’t understand is that the US military has NO chance of displacing China from East Asia while China has ALL the military means to expel the US military from East Asia. The PLA is no longer your old peasant Army of the Korean War but a high-tech military with the technical means to end the US military presence in East Asia. But China doesn’t want to humiliate the USA in some stupid East Asian war that could destroy Japan and South Korea. Since the Japanese and South Koreans are wise enough NOT to wish the destruction of their countries, they would likely surrender to China in a short war and agree to terminate their defense ties with the USA. While nobody in East Asia wants a US-China military conflict, the political outcome of such a short war would likely imply the end of the US Empire in East Asia.

    The Yanks in the US Deep State better understand this salient point because they might end up LOSING their US Empire in East Asia should they initiate a ‘splendid little war’ to enforce their gunboat diplomacy against China.

    There are no winners in such a military conflict but the political loser will the USA.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  484. Reaper says:
    @Blade

    I agree with you, and that officer.

    “From what I heard from a Royal Navy officer, Turkey could hold on its own against the EU.”

    Turkey have a traditionally war worthy military / always had.
    For an extra they are a separate caste from the greater society. So there are better chances to convince the Turkish military to make a coup and remove the whole ruling elite than defeat them in their homeland. Probably they do not fight for the president/ elite, but they do for their country.

    Egypt near Syria are the only two which decent AMONG ARABIC armies, but hardly a match outside that spectrum, definitelly not in the same league with Turkey.

  485. Reaper says:
    @Zarathustra

    And good wage compared for example Australians.

    At the Pacific Theatre there were quite much problems especially in Australia, as “allied” soldiers became bitter rivals in regard of Australian women. Officers and military police have many duties to supress tensions and break up fistfights.

  486. @Daniel Chieh

    The reference though was in relation to fighting and eating meat. There is simply no way make the statement the meat eaters would always win – in the same way in the animal kingdom predators do not always get to kill prey.

  487. @antibeast

    Russia is testing hypersonics that can be fired by both air and sea as well. I believe China is testing one from their H6 bomber.

    As to the issue of US bases in East Asia – you are correct. But ending deployment of new THAAD is the first step in South Korea showing they dont want to be used to provoke China. They also refuse to join in any provocative naval drills with the US. They also just announced that the defense ministers if China and South Korea will be meeting. South Korea also refused issue a statement with Blinken naming China as an aggressor. I think they see exactly what is going on and are trying to re-assure China that they wont be taking part so they shouldnt target South Korea.

    On the other hand Japan seems happy to be led around on a leash by the US Military Industrial Complex. Sad to see. Japan’s future doesnt lie with the G7…

  488. @antibeast

    introduced the medieval mysticism of Tibetan Buddhism to the Qing Dynasty,

    Ignorant brainwashed idiot! There’s never been a form of religion as fond of logic and debates as the Gelug of the Qing.

    Following Tsongkhapa, the Geluk tradition came to establish large monastic institutions that set the standard for scholastic education in Tibet. The curriculum at Geluk monastic institutions involves five primary topics: metaphysics (abhidharma), epistemology (pramāṇa), negative dialectics (madhyamaka), path structure (Abhisamayālaṃkāra), and ethics (vinaya). Buddhist metaphysics instills the contours of a Buddhist view, including causality, impermanence, and an event-metaphysics that ties these two together. The path structure also plays a central role in traditional Buddhist philosophy: it provides the philosophy with a telos, a narrative arch toward liberation and complete enlightenment. Ethics, too, is integral to this path and to Buddhist philosophy in general, but the most distinctive and interesting features of Geluk philosophy are found in its epistemology, and in particular, negative dialectics.

    https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/gelukpa/#GelEdu

    In Gelug, the achievement of the perfection of wisdom (prajña) requires a proper understanding of the view of emptiness. In the Lamrim chenmo, Tsongkhapa rejects the idea that all intellectual effort, concepts, and mental activity are obstacles to spiritual understanding.

    The correct view of emptiness is initially established through study and reasoning in order to ascertain if phenomena are the way they appear. Gelug texts contain many explanations to help one obtain a conceptual understanding of emptiness and to practice insight meditation (vipasyana). Gelug meditation includes an analytical kind of insight practice which is “the point-by-point contemplation of the logical arguments of the teachings, culminating in those for the voidness of self and all phenomena.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gelug

    [MORE]

    It is important to recognize how Geluk philosophy is embedded within a distinctively Buddhist soteriology. That is, the truth of no-self is liberating because understanding this is held to free one from the mistaken idea of a self(or a permanent personal attribute or characteristic) that binds one to suffering. Knowledge of emptiness is key to this emancipatory process, as Tsongkhapa claims, for one must realize the emptiness of the Consequence School, the lack of true essence, to be free from the subtle sense of self and achieve nirvāṇa (Cozort 1998, 316). For the Geluk tradition, there is no higher view than just the emptiness in the Consequence School, and this view is also maintained to be a prerequisite for the esoteric practices of tantra. Tantra is an important part of the path to liberation in the Geluk tradition. It is a path to liberation that is held to involve distinct, esoteric methods, but without diverging from the philosophical view of emptiness, which is indispensible. For this reason, Geluk philosophy is located squarely within the exoteric domain of discourse: the intersubjective spaces of dialogue and debate.

    Therefore, rather than overcoming mistaken concepts by circumventing them in a mystical flash of insight or an ecstatic experience of union, the Geluk tradition offers a more sober way to overcome misconceptions, one based on clear, rational analysis. That is, this tradition holds reasoned analysis to be necessary to understand the nature of phenomena (or rather, their lack of nature). This is because an ascertainment of the lack of true existence is held to be necessary to counteract the directly opposed notion – the apprehension of true existence—which is the misinterpretation of reality (as more than simply conventionally existing) that binds one to suffering. To do this, it is not sufficient to simply “let be,” stare into space, or ignore the cause of misinterpretation in some tranquil “nonconceptual” meditation; rather, one must have insight induced by reason that counteracts the habit of holding onto true existence.

    Thus, in Geluk philosophy, we can say that meaning is limited to intelligibility. That is, insight into reality is not held to be beyond thought, or attributed to some third category beyond the world that is neither existent nor nonexistent, but is simply insight into a world that is neither (ultimately) existent nor (conventionally) nonexistent. Even though Geluk scholars consent to the fact that emptiness can be perceived nonconceptually—in the rarified case of a highly developed meditation – they maintain that the emptiness that is known nonconceptually is no different from the emptiness that is conceptually known. It is the conceptual ascertainment of emptiness that is the principal element of the Geluk school’s philosophy. Moreover, their emphasis on the practice of insight is not based on an appeal to a direct, unmediated access to what is beyond concepts, but to reason. Reason is also given priority over scriptural authority, which is subjected to the scrutiny of analysis and is adjudicated by reason (Tsongkhapa in Hopkins 1999, 71).

    But yes Chinese Chan and Tao are both at least superficially quite mystical, unlike our sober and down to earth philosophy of Middle Way between two extremes of of essentialism and nihilism. Tibetans have traditionally followed the Middle Way or Madhyamaka and Chinese have followed the Yogachara or Chittamatra, Mind Only -school.

  489. antibeast says:

    Both China and Russia are the only two countries in the world today to have deployed hypersonic missiles with a ten-year lead against USA which has just began developing and testing such missiles but has yet to deploy them. US missile defense systems such as the THAAD, Patriot, Aegis BMD, etc. won’t work against Chinese or Russian hypersonic missiles. There is no known defense against such hypersonic missiles, the advent of which has shifted the balance of power from sea-based navies to land-based armies. This means the US Navy could no longer operate with impunity against Chinese hypersonic missiles which have the ability to sink US aircraft carriers. Instead, the Yanks would need US allies such as Japan to fight their wars for them in East Asia. But why should the Japanese sacrifice their ‘Land of the Rising Sun’ just so that they would be discarded like the Japanese Cio-Cio-San by the American Pinkerton? They would rather become part of the East Asian Civilization centered in China than turn into the Suzie Wong of the Banana Republic of the USA which is what the HK rioters aspire to be. That’s why the Japanese has some 70% of the US military located in Okinawa which has overwhelmingly opposed its presence for decades because they don’t want to be used as guinea pigs by the Yanks.

    Time is on China’s side. No need to rush out the stupid gringos. When the time comes, they will leave.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  490. @128

    You do realize that the numbers of B-2’s and F-22’s are very low right. There aren’t even 50 B2’s. There are less than 200 F22’s. Both of those planes NEVER have all of them on the ready. They are very very high maintenance. Same with the F-35. So it will be mostly F16’s and 15’s and 18’s doing most of the fighting. Don’t discount the SU35…
    In any event – let’s hope it never happens.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @reiner Tor
  491. @antibeast

    “That’s why the Japanese has some 70% of the US military located in Okinawa which has overwhelmingly opposed its presence for decades because they don’t want to be used as guinea pigs by the Yanks.”

    Yes and sad because the people of Okinawa never wanted to be part of Japan. The US forced them to for this purpose. Even in recent times they voted against the US bases – but Tokyo told them “too bad”. Democracy??? Sad.

  492. @showmethereal

    These planes would be enough against Russia (though losses would be impossible to replace for a long time), given that Russia doesn’t yet have many Su-57s (basically just one, if we include prototypes, still less than a dozen), and only a hundred Su-35s, another few hundred others from the Su-27 family…

  493. @showmethereal

    These planes would be enough against Russia (though losses would be impossible to replace for a long time), given that Russia doesn’t yet have many Su-57s (basically just one, if we include prototypes, still less than a dozen), and it’s difficult to assess how well the Su-27 family would fare against the F-35 or even against the aging F-15s and F-16s, but overall numerical superiority would belong to the Americans even without their allies. (Provided that they will be able to deploy all of their forces in the theater – a big if.)

    One issue the Americans will face is that they won’t be able to deploy all of their forces against Russia, because they need to keep some deployed against China, and even their numerous smaller commitments will likely tie up some forces. Another issue is logistics – it’s difficult to deploy all of their forces, and once deployed, supplying them is going to be a serious difficulty.

    But it’s difficult to say anything about such a war. Would nuclear weapons be used? Would China help Russia or remain strictly neutral? (Unlikely.) How easy it would be to keep the public behind the war effort? (It seems to me that it’d be easier in Russia, but I might be mistaken. Overall I wouldn’t expect internal troubles in either of them for the duration of the conflict, or at least for the first several months and probably much longer.)

  494. Su 35’s are more agile than F15’s and have 3D thrust vectoring. They can also carry longer range missiles. SO the question would always be – who sees who fast enough..

    F35’s are comparatively slow – have low flying ceilings and relatively short ranges – and low levels of armament. They are made to attack small weak countries who can’t spot them. They aren’t made to fight Russia (and China) who can see them much earlier. Plus like other US stealth aircraft – their availability is spotty and their sortie rate is low.
    And while the US does have overall superiority in numbers – they would have to knock out all of Russia’s anti-aircraft defenses before even worrying about dogfighting. Does anyone want to willingly fly into S300 and S400 batteries..??? I dunno..

    As you noted – could the US deploy enough forces against Russia or China…. That would be the only way to “win”…. But in 2021 is it possible to build up so many forces? Iraq couldn’t do anything but wait. Not the case with Russia (or China).

    But again – let’s hope and pray none of us have to find out. Wouldn’t be pretty.

  495. Su 35’s are more agile than F15’s and have 3D thrust vectoring. They can also carry longer range missiles. SO the question would always be – who sees who fast enough..

    F35’s are comparatively slow – have low flying ceilings and relatively short ranges – and low levels of armament. They are made to attack small weak countries who can’t spot them. They aren’t made to fight Russia (and China) who can see them much earlier. Plus like other US stealth aircraft – their availability is spotty and their sortie rate is low.
    And while the US does have overall superiority in numbers – they would have to knock out all of Russia’s anti-aircraft defenses before even worrying about dogfighting. Does anyone want to willingly fly into S300 and S400 batteries..??? I dunno..

    As you noted – could the US deploy enough forces against Russia or China…. That would be the only way to “win”…. But in 2021 is it possible to build up so many forces? Iraq couldn’t do anything but wait. Not the case with Russia (or China).

    But again – let’s hope and pray none of us have to find out. Wouldn’t be pretty.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  496. @showmethereal

    The Su-35 only has a PESA radar, which is why I think all Su-27 derivatives will soon need to be upgraded. I don’t know if the radar will play a bigger role than agility, probably it will depend on the situation, and I don’t know what kind of situations will happen more often. I’d wager that the difference is small enough that numbers and pilot experience would matter more overall.

    A war would be very risky for both.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  497. @Mr. XYZ

    You are speaking of uniting all western nations to have high numbers, but you don’t think of the many nations which don’t want again to follow a partner which bully them whenever thay need to force that nations to do what Usa wants. western bloc must think of the many nations which don’t want to remain allies of rogue nations. (Philippines? Turkey? Jordans?, some former sovietic nations that have had a taste of American ways of behaving… and Nations as Japan which is splitting up from their masters for the same reasons of the others, but they are not alone)

  498. @reiner Tor

    Well for one thing each nations early warning aircraft sees more than anything else so the goal for each side is to shoot those down first. That said – in theory – Russia has the better anti aircraft systems…

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