The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersRussian Reaction Blog
Chinese GDP in 2050: the Debate
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Where will Chinese GDP end up: At ~US level, or 2-3x the US level?

Very important question – after all, it will determine whether the world will remain unipolar (if China ~= US, the latter will remain dominant thanks to its alliance system and soft power) or “bifurcated” between a US-Western sphere and a Sino-centric one.

Have been gathering predictions on this question (in terms of nominal, not PPP, GDP).

***

Arguments for why China will not much exceed the US from Thulean Friend:

– China’s growth path cannot be compared to SK/Japan/Taiwan because they paid an extraordinary political price (becoming a US puppet) in order to get the “green light” to pursue some pretty insane protectionist measures, e.g. Korea outright banned car imports in the 1960s. All of them did massive currency manipulation.

– The US tolerated some of this for Beijing as long as it believed that China would essentially end up a Big Taiwan. Playing to US rules/diktats. That obviously didn’t happen so any conciliatory treatment is now out the window unless Deus Ex Machina happens (CCP falls from power etc). That is why extrapolating from SK/Taiwan/Japan is mistaken. The geopolitical situation is radically different. The US and its colonial proxies still largely control the developed world demand for export markets. This is crucial for any developing country, which China still is by any reasonable definition.

– China is a big economy but it is also a huge country. Per capita GDP is only ~$10K. That means it is simply too poor to rely mostly on the domestic market without gorging on debt. Which is what it has been doing.

– TSF (Total Social Financing) is now reaching close to 300% of GDP. Contra clown doomers like Gordon Chang, China isn’t going to collapse. But it will face Japanification, but crucially at much lower income levels.

– China can still add leverage for 10-15 years before really starting to be hit by lower dynamism. So even in my ‘bearish’ scenario, China will continue converging with the West for the time being, but the price paid will be more and more debt. This may not seem like a big deal in these Coronavirus times, but China was adding debt far faster than any Western country in the 2010-2020 period. This was not the case in the 1980-2010 time frame. When a system starts adding huge amounts of debt to grow, it shows you something is broken. This is especially the case when they are still quite poor. By comparison, the Czech Republic’s total debt to GDP(public+private) is half that of China, despite being twice as rich.

– Once China hits this wall, it will not collapse and probably not even fall behind much either. It will stabilise at or slightly above the US GDP and keep pace, but not overtake it further. I predict China will succeed in many of its key objectives (technological self-sufficiency) but it will fail to dislodge the US as the key hegemon. This is because the US controls a huge colonial puppet network which can act as a gigantic force multiplier. China is simply not capable of reproducing that. The US has Germany and Japan; China has Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan. Russia is the only half-decent friendly country to China, but it isn’t as submissive the US colonial subjects are and likely never will be.

– The “final form of China” will be very significant adversary which will have unique capabilities of tharting US imperial policies in its own vicinity but not much outside of it. From Beijing’s perspective, this may be enough. It will be strong enough to avoid being bullied and can go toe-to-toe in its core areas of interest. What happens outside of that area may be less important. China’s rise will thus not significantly affect the balance of power in the MENA region or in LatAm. Nor will Chinese influence supplant US colonial diktat in Europe except in a few stray countries like possibly Serbia or other Balkanoids, which will be the exceptions that prove the rule.

I will end by saying that I hope I am wrong. The world would be a better place if I am. But I have to separate my wishes from my dispassionate analysis.

***

I am not going to spend much time making my case since I have already made most of my arguments in prior posts and have been doing so for a long time (actually, since 2008, when I began blogging).

In particular, see:

  • Sinotriumph 101
  • Review of Kroeber’s book on Chinese economy addresses many individual arguments (e.g. the question of Chinese debt – it is overwhelmingly internal, so as with Japan, so really more of a book-keeping issue than a genuine long-term growth risk)

One of the pillars of my worldview is the centrality of human capital, as proxied by national IQs, to economic performance. Furthermore, the more optimal that economic systems become, as they have been doing so for decades prior, the fewer gaps we see across different countries in “expected” and “realized” GDPcc. This is because only high IQ nations are capable of maintaining the complex “O-Ring” type processes that separate truly developed/First World nations from the rest. As more and more countries adopt similar “best policy” cocktails, so the underlying human capital differences can be expected to play ever more of a dominant role.

As pertains to China, as can be predicted from its human capital levels, it has been rapidly closing the gap with the developed world, though consistently lagging South Korea and Taiwan by around 20-25 years thanks largely to its prior Maoist lunacies. Considering cultural similarity and broadly analogous human capital levels, we can expect that China will likewise converge to their GDPcc (PPP) levels in another 20 years, with nominal GDP levels catching up soon after, as they usually do when technologically complex countries reach a high level of GDP (PPP).

Now I am highly skeptical that China will become 5x+ as rich as the US (i.e. fully converge or even exceed America in per capita terms), though it needs to be noted that some models, such as Heiner Rindermann’s in Cognitive Capitalism, suggest just that. For reasons that are remain unresolved, the US is considerably richer than naively predicted by its human capital, while the developed East Asian polities (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.) are considerably poorer. I have explored the possible causes of this in National Wealth and IQ at the Edge: American Exceptionalism, East Asian Mediocrity.

However, what I do find striking about it is that many of the factors I identified as possible causes of this “American exceptionalism” are set to move sharply against the US in the following decades:

  • The US has long turbocharged its economy by vacuuming up the most vigorous global smart fractions, but its cachet has been plummeting in recent years and if anything is set to accelerate given the neo-Maoist lunacy that has overtaken it. E.g., most Chinese graduate college students in the US began to repatriate as opposed to seeking to stay on about a decade ago now.
  • The US has long had high labor mobility by both global and European, but that’s going down now.
  • Almost all US population growth from now to 2050 will accrue to lower IQ ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic Whites are in outright natural decline.
  • The US dollar’s status as world reserve currency is estimated to tack on an 5-10% in GDP on account of something called “American alpha” (though it is not without its drawbacks). But will it hold this position indefinitely?
  • Catastrophic events: There is the chance that either the US or China will be interrupted by a collapse (e.g. state dissolution; civil war), as opposed to their existing trends of decline and rise, respectively. At this point, the likelihood of this must be considered to be higher for the US, even if it remains modest in absolute terms.

Conversely, while many people treat the growth trajectory of South Korea or Taiwan as the utmost “high end” of what China can realistically hope for with its big state sector, I don’t think it’s all that obvious either:

  • Although China’s 1.4 billion population is often talked of as a liability – just imagine managing so many people! (no matter that you have corresponding more managers to do it with) – it is in reality a huge asset thanks to the unparalleled economies of scale it opens up. At a very fundamental level, China doesn’t need world markets.
  • Maoism was bad, but one thing it did do was destroy old traditional social structures (e.g. Chinese employers don’t feel the same obligations to their workers as Japanese ones). This ironically may make it possible for China to achieve a higher peak GDPcc, all else equal.
  • Even within East Asia – why should China’s trajectory necessarily follow that of Korea or Taiwan (at best?). Why not that of Singapore, at least as pertains to its urban regions?

So I would be very surprised if Chinese GDP isn’t at least twice as high as US GDP in 2050. My expectation is that it will more likely be three times as big.

***

What do my Twitter followers think?

  • Starting off with the distribution in the first question, then further subdividing those ranges as per the distributions within the next three questions;
  • Taking either midpoints where possible, or substituting guesstimated values for “greater” or “lesser” than (e.g. 90% for those who thought “<100%” and 500% for those who thought “450%+ (richer US per cap)”;

… my Twitter followers think that

  • The Chinese economy will be ~214% that of the US in 2050.
  • 189% of the US if we instead take logarithmic averages, which is perhaps more appropriate here.

At any rate, they seem to think it will be a very close competition. This seems to reflect consensus opinion – a 2x difference is what the majority of economists (so far as I can tell) expect, and what most of the models I’ve seen suggest.

But economists and their models don’t tend to be IQpilled, their proxies of “human capital” are more often things like “years of schooling” which are much less useful, so it would seem to be a good rule of thumb to adjust their projections for the low IQ countries downwards and for the high IQ countries upwards. Also why you should invest into North Korean stonks whenever it becomes possible.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: China, Gambling, Prediction, Sinotriumph, United States 
Hide 581 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

    • Troll: Father O'Hara
  2. It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces. The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade. On the other hand, others (e.g., Guangxi) have been the simultaneous recipients of massive infrastructure investment, which is an obvious aid to growth. Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality. At best, Fujian province might fully converge with Taiwan, but I don’t think this is likely due to mainland institutions generally accepted as being inferior to Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese. However, due to the sheer economic size of China’s leading cities and their clear upward economic trajectory, it’s reasonable to believe China’s GDP per capita (PPP) will surpass Russia within the next two decades, getting China’s economy close to twice the size of the U.S. by PPP.

  3. Svevlad says:

    It will either way – not because of some ludicrous Chinese growth, but due to American decline and collapse

    • Replies: @Mary Marianne
  4. One important point -Taiwan and Japan saw their price levels in dollars sag due to the rise of China as a major exporter, thus hurting the size of their GDPs by exchange rates. There is no “next China”. Therefore, one can rest assured that China’s price level in dollars will not fall or unexpectedly stagnate once it hits the same point in its development Taiwan and Japan did.

    The biggest headwind China has facing it is undeniably its demographics.

    • Thanks: Rahan
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  5. A123 says:

    Both the numerator (China GDP) and denominator (U.S. GDP) need careful consideration.
    ____

    If Team Blue wins, they will prevents U.S. manufacturing from recovering. Crippling U.S. productivity with “woke” service to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce makes it much easier for everyone to gain versus the U.S. including China. Odds are good that China will easily exceed 200% versus a Fascist Blue U.S. with unproductive spending on suppressing the freedom of U.S. citizens. 300%+ could be achieved if the Nazicrats do enough damage to the U.S.

    If Team Red wins, they will clamp down on IP theft and China market manipulation. This will boost U.S. GDP and limit China GDP growth. A growing U.S. Economy will be much harder to run down. After Barack Hussein’s failed presidency and “jobless” recovery, the U.S. could have a massive boom for a decade or more if Team Swastika Blue can be destroyed. Trying to run up 200% versus a successful U.S. Populist, MAGA economic renaissance is more-or-less impossible.
    ____

    There are also gigantic issues internal to China. While it will be long term good, there is huge risk during retooling:
    — From an export exploitation CCP Elite economy
    — To an internal Chinese Citizen driven anti-Elite economy

    Best Case — Even if everything goes smoothly there is likely to be a tough decade or more as Chinese exports are shunned faster than they can develop new internal markets.

    Worst Case — The Chinese Elite class that controls the State Owned Enterprises [SOE] resists Citizen Empowered internal competition. None of these scenarios are helpful and a few are potentially catastrophic.

    The CCP Elite Class demonstrated total incompetence and short sightedness trying to handle economic change for a small portion of the population in Hong Kong. It is not clear that they have learned anything from this fiasco, so those betting on CCP Elite “Best Case” behaviour are rather out on a limb.
    ____

    As a side note, trying to score the competition will be very difficult. Chinese national statistics are burdened by substantial inaccuracy and corruption: (1)

    In 2018, Guanghan reported that its economy grew 9 per cent to 45.1 billion yuan (US$6.5 billion) – significantly more than the national average of 6.6 per cent. Government officials also tried to block law enforcement officials from inspecting its data and violated the regulation requiring the statistical bureau to take responsibility for filing accurate data on progress in meeting economic targets, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report published earlier this week.

    Doubts over the quality of China’s economic data have risen in recent years, especially after large-scale manipulation of economic data was revealed in Liaoning province, the Inner Mongolia autonomous area and the city of Tianjin, with local officials under pressure to deliver economic achievement to meet promotion criteria.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) From 2019: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3015206/chinas-economic-census-undercovers-more-fake-data-officials

    • Replies: @Gandofff
    , @Craken
  6. Why not start with numbers and a simple model?
    1) Estimated Population in 2050 (source: Pew research):
    US: 401 million
    China: 1.38 billion
    2) 2019 GDP per capita (nominal) (source: Wikipedia):
    US: 65,281
    Japan: 40,247
    South Korea: 31,762
    Taiwan: 26,910 (2020 estimates)
    China: 10,262
    3) Will the relative GDP per capita between the aforementioned countries, other than China, change over time? I think the safest assumption is that they will not, i.e. in 2050 US GDP per capita will still be more than double of South Koreans GDP per capita.
    3) Which country will China converge to? I think the safest assumption is Taiwan as they are the most similar people. Note: With convergence to Taiwan I mean that China converges to Taiwan´s GDP per capita as a % of US´s GDP per capita.
    4) Note that 3) is the ceiling for China. So, how realistic is it for China to converge to 3) by 2050? This requires to look at past growth rates of China and make a prediction about future Chinese growth rates (the growth rates are going to be lower than in the past). Moreover, keep in mind that the US and the country China will converge to will grow, too (safest assumption: both will have the same growth rates as the US had over the last 20 years).
    5) Multiply what you have gotten in 4) by 1) for both the US and China
    6) Compare the results 🙂

    • Replies: @128
    , @reiner Tor
  7. Wyatt says:
    @E. Harding

    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.

    Now this made me reconsider my entire position. There are innumerable managerial and ecological problems that could snowball into massive, unsolvable issues for the CCP to deal with. If there’s a large enough population that gets displaced due to man-made quakes, high toxin concentration or industries shutting down, the Chinese government can’t just hush up tens of millions of people very easily.

    Likewise, we’ve seen nationwide burnout of east Asians when they’re pushed too hard for too long. The Japanese burned out first and the Koreans are following shortly behind. It took half a century, but it happened and their economies are suffering because of it. How long the Chinese will last before people just start saying “no,” I can’t say for certain, but I would hazard a guess that once the average Chinaman has a moderately decent lifestyle that is capable of supporting a family, they’ll have about 40-50 years.

    Further, I don’t know if the Chinese could ever produce a truly robust middle class (and thus a reliable source of taxpayers, workers and soldiers with acceptable education and values) with the kind of consumption culture/materialism that is marketed in the west and which has sunk into the east. It takes huge numbers of people to satisfy the demands of just the United States. Countries no longer have middle classes that are supported by the nation. They always require some kind of foreign economy to provide cheap labor, food, raw materials or consumer goods. In China’s case, they will always need oil from elsewhere and if they continue their ecological hellscape nightmare, they’re going to need food as well.

    While China might eclipse the US for sheer size, I doubt that it would be sustainable in the long run. There are way too many unknowable factors at play that no one person would be able to accurately guess even half of them. All it takes is just a few bad factors coming into play simultaneously to tank the whole thing. What if the coof had been just a tad more lethal? We could have been looking at tens of millions of dead Chinese and global lockdowns which paralyzed their growth terribly.

    I say watch for anomalies and make no bets.

  8. Some Guy says:

    So this is all assuming natural human capital is still the main factor in 2050 I guess.

    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic. On the other hand, China will probably be quicker to start with embryo selection/genetic engineering. Even a few years difference there could be a huge economic advantage.

    I assume oil won’t be that important in 2050, that’s an advantage for a large net importer like China.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  9. What if the coof had been just a tad more lethal? We could have been looking at tens of millions of dead Chinese and global lockdowns which paralyzed their growth terribly.

    This is trolling; if 2020 proved anything, it is that China has much better pandemic preparedness than the United States. And coronavirus killing tens of millions would have required plague-level lethality, making it much easier for China (and the rest of the world, if it wasn’t completely stupid) to have handled early on. A virus as deadly as the plague would inevitably have resulted in less worldwide deaths than the actual coronavirus.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
  10. When discussing asian progress it’s often assumed that high asian IQ is going to be a major factor and potentially something that drives that region past the west. One point that’s often made (and could possibly be true) is that asians may be disadvantaged by a lower standard deviation in their IQ scores, but what I never hear discussed is the possibility that asians are simply precocious and show their potential at an earlier age, whereas whites are slower to develop. The main reason I think this is the UK education statistics, where whites do terribly on the GCSE, taken at age 16:

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/gcse-results-attainment-8-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest

    White average score 46.1, black 45, Chinese 64.2, non-Chinese asian (mostly south asian) 50.4.

    A levels:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/a-levels-apprenticeships-further-education/students-aged-16-to-18-achieving-3-a-grades-or-better-at-a-level/latest

    11% of whites get 3 As or more, 25.7% of Chinese, 11% of non-Chinese asians and 5.5% of blacks.

    And college graduates:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/higher-education/undergraduate-degree-results/latest

    30.9% of whites get a first class degree, 22.7% of asians total (presumably including Chinese this time as they’re not listed as a separate category) and 14% of blacks. Over the 3 stages the white students overtake the others, although it’s likely the Chinese are still ahead in college it does go to show things like the PISA test at age 15 and national IQ results (I’m not sure but I imagine many of the numbers must come from schools) may not tell the full story if some races are simply faster to mature than others. My own anecdotal evidence from college in Ireland, where I ended up working on projects with a lot of Chinese students, is that they tended to struggle. One even told me herself that though our colleges attract some of their highest achieving students, they really struggle when they come here. I mainly put that down to the language barrier but it’s still interesting.

    There would be some logic to asians being faster to mature, they are physically a little bit smaller than whites and in general I’m pretty sure that smaller humans (and animals in general) tend to mature faster. Of course, China doesn’t need to fully live up to its national IQ to overtake the US, but it’s still interesting to consider that their IQ might not be all it’s cracked up to be.

    • Replies: @Wency
  11. Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    I don’t get the argument on north east. It’s not growing as much as the rest of China, so doom. The Chinese are intent on urbanising their population over time, eventually they will get to that. This will offset to a large degree the demographic deficit as they age, that is a real problem but probably exaggerated and no worse than the west. The terrifying debt is internal.

    The idea that they will face tailwinds in exports is odd given the RECP and the recent investment deal with the EU.

    The same with oil, China is moving to renewables pretty fast.

    At any rate we will know in a few years. The trend growth for China is supposed to be 6% over the next few years, starting at 8% next year . That’s enough to double over about 11 years.
    Rule of 70.

    Ok so let’s assume the US grows at 2% in that time. That would be a 24% growth, of there’s no recession.

    If we are at parity now (and remember the us will have significant negative gdp this year) then it would only take a few more years for China to double the gdp of the US. Maybe 2035 at the latest.

    We will know in a few years. If China’s growth moderates to the 3-4% level in five years it will take a lot longer.

  12. @E. Harding

    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces.

    […]

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.

    If provincial population ratios remained static I think this would be true, however while regional inequality will increase, I don’t think it will significantly affect national GDP per capita due to internal migration making the centres of population density increasingly centred in the coast and the provincial capitals.

    Even if left-behind regions lag behind they will comprise an ever lower portion of the country’s population and become more irrelevant from a national perspective (though of course, not particularly pleasant for the remaining residents).

    1997, direction of migration flows:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/0BtI_QURfWy-89RwnV3stxfG73YOAkPFiFYnkLHx0hudYpmwrDUWMkGkvG6nUlI4YpxPoFJI98QfhaC4xSPmhPYpxgEcwysgKeAb_zwjLFEcaGtIlfc=w1280

    1990-2005 aggregate, a numerical estimate:

    For the last series (unfortunately, due to broken secondary links, I don’t know the date for this data):

    http://matthartzell.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinese-domestic-migration-map.html?m=1

    Note for reasons explained in the post the percentages in the more thinly populated western provinces will end up looking more extreme than the population shifts really are.

    —-

    To Karlin: your “American Alpha” link is broken.

    • Thanks: E. Harding
    • Replies: @songbird
  13. Voltarde says:

    China’s governance model was inspired by Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. The influence of that model explains things like the paternalistic “social credit’ system; the lifetime leadership tenure granted Xi Jinping; intolerance of internal disorder; and the emphasis on first overseas higher education, then building up a first-class domestic higher education system, which in China’s case will be unequalled in human history.

    The US has long turbocharged its economy by vacuuming up the most vigorous global smart fractions, but its cachet has been plummeting in recent years and if anything is set to accelerate given the neo-Maoist lunacy that has overtaken it. E.g., most Chinese graduate college students in the US began to repatriate as opposed to seeking to stay on about a decade ago now.

    The USA is abandoning college entrance examination testing while Chinese students work hard and prepare themselves for the rigorous “Gao Kao”. If China wants even stronger economic growth, she should continue to improve real-time translation of English speech and text into Chinese, and open a New Foreign Concession under joint Chinese-Singaporean management, financed by Temasek. This would accelerate China’s ability to attract the very best scientists and engineers in the world from regions like the Anglo-sphere and the EU, which are utterly destroying themselves.

    In the span of 25 years Shenzhen went from being a rural field to a world-class city larger than New York. Serious, intelligent, hardworking people accomplish things like that. China doesn’t take orders from the Israeli government. China also doesn’t export poverty or revolution; doesn’t wage trillion-dollar “wars for democracy” under a rainbow flag; and doesn’t promote criminal sociological nihilism (e.g., irreversible chemical castration and “bottom surgery” mutilation of children). China long ago abandoned foot-binding; now the west celebrates molestation of children that is even more repugnant.

    China would not be the preferred model of America’s founders, but I suspect the latter would find more to admire in China’s leadership than in the unserious, foolish, lazy SOBs currently running America (into the ground).

  14. Tulip says:

    All this China/China. . . what is the evidence that the US GNP in 2050 will be >100% of the US GNP in 2020? It only needs to shrink by a third to make the prophecy true with China steady state. Not sure that woke neofuedalism is going to do any economic heavy lifting. Deindustrialization, some more financial house of cards falling, currency outflows, and good military humiliation and 1/3 is generous.

  15. AP says:
    @Eugene Norman

    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    These are obviously city points. It’s like making assumptions about Russia’s GDP based on Moscow, USA’s based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA’s per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA’s GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

  16. mal says:

    This is because only high IQ nations are capable of maintaining the complex “O-Ring” type processes that separate truly developed/First World nations from the rest.

    This is true only for production activities which are thankfully getting reduced as a share of overall economic activity, employment, and GDP.

    As I mentioned in another post, I expect agriculture and industry to shrink from current 5% and 11% to 2% and 3% respectively and employment in those industries to shrink from 2% and 11% to something like 0.5% and 2% by 2050.

    Automation and efficiency gains are relentless and massively deflationary, as more stuff is made more efficiently, prices will collapse far faster than demand for the output will grow due to poor demographics and income distribution, which in turn will lower the nominal GDP in those sectors. Old people will have all the assets and income and young and middle aged will be poor and irrelevant in GDP calculations; not only young will be poor but there also will be few of them so so that is double negative for their share of GDP.

    Only old people matter for GDP calculations in the future. And ability to increase debt. Nothing else matters. Even Africans, even with low average IQ, will be able to find top 3% of their population to run their advanced processes, and thats all that will be required, really. The rest will become Medicare Billing Assistants, which doesn’t require high IQ and those people will be the future of the world. Which is why I expect economies of different countries to converge in the end.

    And in services, high IQ needs are questionable. You probably want the doctors to be somewhat smart, but a professor of Intersectional Literature? Does it really matter if her IQ is 150 or 80? Lawyers and financiers are inherently parasitic and serve little to no value in society, they only engage in negative sum games. It will only be beneficial if they are dumber than average. Does your plumber need 130 IQ? Unlikely.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  17. @E. Harding

    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.

    Interesting and TIL. I knew they have long had lower growth, but not to that extent. I checked provincial GDPcc numbers, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are all higher in 2019 vs. 2011, but only marginally so, meanwhile most of the rest of the country has moved sharply upwards, as expected. Heilongjiang is in fact now the second poorest province by that metric after Gansu.

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.

    Doesn’t necessarily follow, North-East might be slipping behind, but the interior proper (e.g. Sichuan) doesn’t seem to have been slipping behind the seaboard.

  18. @Eugene Norman

    Hong Kong, Singapore and Macau can’t be compared to normal countries. Hong Kong and Singapore are centres for finance, services and R&D, and Macau’s economy is based around gambling tourism.

  19. @AP

    Fair points, though one also needs to adjust for Taiwan being an unrecognized polity that is getting systemically brain drained by China.

    Current UN projections show the US with 379M people in 2050 vs. 1,402 million in China – the recent fertility bust in the US has to increasingly be accounted for. Though I suppose the old projections can still be rescued with aggressive pursuit of the One Billion Americans plan.

    • Replies: @E. Harding
    , @AP
  20. One of the fastest growing groups in the US is East Asians, and African Americans have sub replacement fertility rates, so your point about “most of the US growth being in lower IQ groups” isn’t entirely true.

    • Replies: @Another German Reader
  21. @Anatoly Karlin

    The corona crisis seems likely to lead to a convergence of American and Chinese demographics as

    1. Chinese potential immigrants to the West (outside Australia and New Zealand) increasingly stay in China

    2. Potential immigrants from around the world increasingly don’t move to America

    3. American TFR gets repeatedly hit by repeated waves of corona, while China remains immune to the virus due to wise policy

    The question is whether the coronavirus crisis is long-term, short-term, medium-term, etc. There’s no reason to expect Western incompetence to disappear anytime soon, and even high levels of vaccine acceptance should make the West a danger zone by Chinese standards for decades to come.

    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn’t NIMBYism taken over China’s major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    , @Astarte
  22. China is a big economy but it is also a huge country. Per capita GDP is only ~$10K. That means it is simply too poor to rely mostly on the domestic market without gorging on debt.

    What do you mean? You seem to swap cause and effect.

    China manufactures more goods every year. Heretofore, Chinese policy has favored exports. As soon as Chinese policy ceases to favor exports, the Chinese domestic market will be larger by definition.

    [MORE]

    I gather that you think of a market as though it were a substantial thing of definite size, but a market is not that. Rather, a market is an empty space of indefinite size—a vacuum, more or less—into which goods and services can be delivered.

    The ~$10K of which you speak has value only in proportion to the extent to which goods and services have been delivered that the ~$10K can buy. By adjusting the money supply, modern central banking maintains approximately steady prices as a matter of policy. Such policy maintains an illusion that ~$10K had some definite value, but the definite value is merely an illusion. It is the goods and services that have definite value, rather.

    China produces lots of goods. To the extent to which China produces additional goods and chooses not to export these additional goods in exchange for fundamentally worthless U.S. dollars, China ceases to be poor. This is a sort of accounting equation.

    • Agree: Dreadilk
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  23. AP says:

    Off topic regarding GDPs but not regarding China. This was on the news in summer:

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    Supposedly Europe (and through Europe, the USA) got a more contagious mutation of COVID than the original, that hit China and the Far East. The original also hit California and died out there before the mutated one took its place.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    “Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia. The research was published online on bioRxiv and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

    The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614.”

    :::::::::::

    Has this been refuted? And if not – might that, rather than Chinese containment skill, explain some or all of the worse COVID contianment outside the Far East?

    • Replies: @BS
    , @Blinky Bill
  24. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    These factors would probably bring China’s GDP closer to twice that of the USA’s (my original rough calculation would have made China’s GDP 1.75 x greater).

    Three times would be unlikely, IMO as unlikely as both countries ending up with about the same GDP. USA would have to have not a modest 5% or so decline in per capita GDP as is most likely, but a stark decline down to France’s per capita GDP in order for China to have three times the USA’s GDP. Not impossible, but a worst possible case scenario situation (of course, there are much less plausible ones, such as an actual civil war, super-volcano).

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  25. Gandofff says:
    @A123

    Wokeness was on the march throughout the 4 years of Trump’s Presidency, so I doubt team red winning will make a difference. What needed to happen was actual consequences, tax increases, budget cutbacks for the military, academia, and the deep state, etc. Team red proved itself too weak to impose them. If all you wanted to see was rhetorical counter-attacks, I’m sure Trumpism looked great to you.

    • Agree: SveVid
  26. Lot says:

    Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

  27. mal says:
    @Lot

    We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    By 2050 all those factories will get automated and stuff those factories produce will cost very little due to very high efficiency. It will not matter where this factory is located, China, Somalia, US, whatever.

    However, because of the low priced output, they will contribute very little to GDP (even if they contribute greatly to qualify of life). Counting factories made sense in the 1950’s when manufacturing was a large part of the advanced economy. In 2050’s it will be so small, counting factories will be pointless.

    • Agree: AaronB, Philip Owen
    • Disagree: Biff
  28. BS says:
    @AP

    I’d imagine this second, more contagious strain has been brought back into East Asia by returnees from the West in the interim. The mandatory, strictly-enforced 2 quarantine periods for arrivals as well as travel bans have minimized potential for reinfection. It’s very clearly a case of superior containment strategy.

    • Replies: @AP
  29. @AP

    Beijing’s latest COVID-19 outbreak caused by virus strain from Europe: Chinese CDC

    According to an epidemiological investigation and analysis of viral gene sequencing results, the strain that caused the outbreak is the European branch I of the L genotype.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194130.shtml

  30. @Lot

    Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The perfect article for you, It’ll make perfect sense.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/02/08/the-leading-power-in-east-asia-will-be-japan-not-china/amp/

  31. Pericles says:
    @Some Guy

    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic.

    But it looks like the US Gang of Four is comfortably leading the race, so one should quite possibly instead expect 10-20 years of US Cultural Revolution before things start to change back, or even longer. Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    • Agree: nokangaroos, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Some Guy
  32. @Lot

    Delusional. Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers. Workers at some point will start preferring shenzhen or bangalore to silicon valley if silicon valley continues to be plagued by drugs, homelessness, and public defecation.

    The US is a house of cards and everyone knows it.

  33. Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America’s much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada’s GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse….couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo “Сільпо”” chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The ‘Safeway to peddle’ schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked ‘a rose is a rose is a rose’, except that the ‘rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800’s. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I’ve seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

  34. Some Guy says:
    @Pericles

    Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    No, but their bosses who run and/or own the companies will.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  35. Pericles says:
    @Some Guy

    Maybe if the polygenic scoring algorithm has been approved by the DOJ and is fully compliant with the Civil Rights Act. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets as disallowed as IQ tests. When you think about it, it’s really the worst sort of eugenic nazism, isn’t it?

    (Regarding who is the boss, note that, for instance, Eileen Naughton, “Vice President – People Operations”, is on the board of Alphabet, the owners of Google. I wonder what her KPIs are and how woke she is?)

    • Replies: @Some Guy
  36. Rahan says:

    A huge chunk of US GDP is “imaginary Jewish economics” to do with selling each other promises of profits and debts and crap like that. This means that the per capita thing is merely a statistical convenience, and not a real thing.

    For the majority, the “Wall Street chunk” of the US economy means nothing. “GDP per capita” grows, but actual physical level of life plummets. City blocks become food deserts and warlord enclaves, parks become rape labyrinths with cracked and warped alleys, public transport is where you go to get mugged by a crazy hobo. New infrastructure projects haven’t happened since the 2008 crash, and even servicing the existing infrastructure is in decline. Worker’s rights are regressing to 19th century levels, and healthcare and education become inter-generational debt burdens.

    In terms of quality of life, only the dwindling “middle class suburbia” is where the “real America” remains alive, the one we see in Marty McFly’s town in 1985, for example. Outside of this, not counting the rich minority, for everyone else the quality of life is rapidly descending to a delightful mix of 1990s post-communist chaos in EE, but COMBINED with 1970s Soviet stagnation and censorship.

    So much for GDP, nominal or per capita.

    **

    That being said, the very idea of a “world hegemon” is a concept based on a historical accident–the West’s Industrial Revolution, which gave it an advantage over the rest of the world comparable to that of hi-tech space invaders.

    Prior to the mid-to-late 19th century, the world was “multipolar” and this is how it always was, and this is how it’s becoming again, now that the “western white” civilization is fast losing its super-passionarity impulse, succumbing to the decline by a billion cuts.

    Before the western white became a hi-tech space invader, he was just another player, like the Ottoman Empire, the Maghreb Caliphate, Persia, Russia, China, and even India, could only overwhelm utterly Stone Age societies, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, and Oceania.

    The world has been transformed by the touch of the western white, the western white has himself been transformed, and now we’re approaching again the pre-industrial revolution situation of many different civilizational centers that exist on similar levels. In this sense no, the US isn’t going to be a world hegemon, and no, China will also not be a world hegemon, in fact, no one will be a world hemegon. A number of interlocking alliances will span the globe, each centered on one or two major players.

    The “single civilizational hegemon” is just another face of the “end of history fallacy”. Which Fukuyama himself has spent the last 20 years debunking, writing some damn good books on the subject, which everyone prefers to pretend isn’t happening.

    **
    The Trumpist “America First” populist nationalism means treating other civilizational centers as competitors who need to be dealt with toughly, but it DOES NOT mean treating them as evil abominations for merely existing. Whereas the GloboHomo view is this. Either you take the part assigned to you within their system, or you are an evil abomination. As a country, as a race, as a class, as an individual. Either accept what is assigned to you, or you are so much beyond good and evil, that you must be destroyed in any way possible.

    The Trumpist approach means hitting China, Russia, Iran, and anyone else, with economic pressure in order to get what America needs to happen. The Deep State GloboHomo approach means seeding them with plagues, fermenting terrorism and separatism, and promoting hatred.

    Trumpist anti-China propaganda at core means “damn Chinks think they’re better than us well we’ll make them play fair and know their place”, whereas the GloboHomo anti-China propaganda means “this society has no right to exist the way it is now, and we must do what it takes to force it to exist the way we say it must exist.”

    • Agree: Sinotibetan, Tdstype2
  37. Some Guy says:
    @Pericles

    I believe companies can get in trouble for tests that have disparate impact on protected groups.
    A way to get around that would be to have separate norms for each race, such that the 50th percentile black scores “the same” as the 50th percentile white etc. Then polygenic scores would still improve employee selection within each race, although they would not improve the racial mix.

    However, eventually when race differences are widely accepted, all this nonsense about “disparate impact” should be obvious nonsense to everyone. Not sure if even the current supreme court buys such nonsense. Nonsense.

  38. Craken says:
    @A123

    Just about the only good comment in the thread–and better than Karlin’s OP.

    RE China’s fake economic numbers: there’s reason to believe that national GDP is overstated (maybe 10-20%) and its total debt (TSF) is understated. The official numbers put TSF at 280% of GDP, double 2007’s level. But, with reasonable adjustments, that debt-to-GDP ratio rises closer to 350%. In order to get their current 6% growth they have to shovel enormous amounts of debt into the system. Much of that debt goes bad, and if it were written down that 6% number would drop to 3-4%. That’s China’s real growth rate: 3-4%. At best, it might sustain that rate and achieve real growth of about 170% in 30 years. Assuming real GDP today is $12 trillion, my guess instead is 120% real growth, leading to a GDP of 27 trillion in today’s dollars.

    I’m not quite as pessimistic about America’s fate, but I agree that it faces a binary choice.

    • Thanks: A123
  39. @E. Harding

    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn’t NIMBYism taken over China’s major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    It is formal policy, but to really put a dent in the numbers things like Beijing’s mass evictions a few years ago would probably have to be regularised rather than sporadic.

  40. utu says:
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    • Thanks: AP
  41. @Lot

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese. Japanese tend to be more rigid and conformist. Remember that before copying the West, Japan copied most of its culture from the Chinese.

    And I don’t think the Japanese have much if any of an IQ advantage over the pure Han in China.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Dmitry
    , @Whitewolf
  42. Sinojxy says:

    Biggest problems for China:

    Demographics. Fortunately not as serious as the US who are experiencing both the race change and white aging kind. Chinese are only experiencing the aging kind but it’s shit and not much is being done about it.

    CPC dogma. Last 15 years many reforms have been reversed. State capitalism would be good if China allowed the major companies to be owned by billionaire genius magnets, and helped direct and support them behind the scenes, as opposed to stupid government workers.

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    • Replies: @Rahan
    , @Ray Caruso
  43. 128 says:
    @OneTimeCommentator

    I think China will stall out at where Slovakia’s, Latvia’s, or Polands’s is relative to Taiwanese GDP per capita.

  44. Again everyone is assuming that “America” is going to be farting into the wind while China bulldozes its way over its hegemony. Where are all the resources coming from for a nation of billions to have per capita equivalents to the developed world? Africa? Already the noose is tightening in the South China Sea. It would be a cinch to tie it up by provoking some conflict in any region on their borders. Corona aka the Chinese flu despite a very suspicious origin is and will still be commonly attributed to the region where it famously became publicized. The entire world will remember the broad outline of the Chinese menace that destroyed them in the year 2020 even if the details will be lost to history. There will be war.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
  45. AP says:
    @BS

    Yes, this is a matter of border control and monitoring rather than in-country containment. If China’s initial outbreak had been the mutated strain, would the country be in such good shape now?

    • Replies: @BS
  46. AP says:
    @utu

    I suspect my wife’s emigration to the USA played a small part in Russia’s low number.

    • Agree: mal
  47. 128 says:

    Question, why are all the IQ estimates for various racial groups and countries only testing teenagers, why are there no data for 25, 35-year-olds, or for middle age and older adults? Why can not they get this data or have these data? Are they basically making the assumption that IQ and IQ differences between nations and racial groups are the same regardless of age?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  48. @Zhang Shoucheng

    Reasonably accurate but – who the hell cares about edmond allens. We have a poverty and protestantism that are responsible for the way we dress. Why the hell did we agree that “pride” – meaning dressing well – is a sin?

  49. @Zhang Shoucheng

    GDP is largely a meme metric, in the end all that matters is self-reliance and autarky. The US is much ahead of China in this regard when it comes to defence systems, but when it comes to manufacturing it is certainly not.

    A state’s power is determined by how much it can be coerced into bending to the will of other countries, and GDP is only a very small component of this.

    • Agree: Haruto Rat
    • Replies: @128
  50. 128 says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Keep in mind the word is converging, so you are aiming against a moving target, assume that the US can grow at 2 or 2.5 percent indefinitely and China can grow at 5 percent in the short term, with the US starting from a larger base. And that 2 percent growth can be increased to 3 percent by either increasing population growth by immigration, productivity gains, or a combination of both, like if the US increased its population growth rate from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent that will add a whole percentage point to its GDP growth rate, even without increases in productivity, so GDP growth goes from 2 percent to 3 percent just because of additional population growth.

  51. 128 says:

    And that is not taking the fact that 3 percent might be the present limit of Chinese GDP growth less depreciation and write-off from bad investments. Admittedly I am not that sold on this, but it does make at least some intuitive sense when you look at all the empty apartment blocks lying around the countryside. And the West is not static either, like how different a cellphone from 2000 vs 2020 is, or how different a Ford Taurus from 2000 vs. a Tesla from 2020 is.

  52. @128

    It’s much easier to test teenagers. But data for geezers exists too: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/

    • Replies: @128
  53. Max Payne says:
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Safeway

    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you’re lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

  54. 128 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Keep in mind that Japan was almost a third world country in 1940, or at least barely a high-income country, with a GDP per capital similar to Poland in 1937, Venenuela and Chile were actually more developed in 1937 than Japan was, and Spain had a high per capita GDP than Japan before its civil war. A fourth of Japanese GDP went to the military In 1940, whereas in the US it was still around 1 percent in the late 30s.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
  55. 128 says:

    And you see pretty large IQ jumps in countries that are already very well developed in 1938, like France, the Netherlands, or Austria.

  56. Lot says:
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

  57. @128

    Venezuela and Chile wasn’t more developed than Japan by any sensible measure.

    • Replies: @128
  58. Rahan says:
    @Sinojxy

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    The population of the US is coincidentally 2% Jewish.

    Is it a minor inconvenience? Some might disagree. Some might say that letting in willy nilly “the smartest and brightest” into your society, and then just letting them do what they will, may lead to all sorts of problemos down the line.

    Some of those imported smartest and most innovative might decide to infiltrate the nervous system of your society and try to use it to achieve their own tribal goals and agendas. It’s a natural enough impulse. Others might simply try to fleece your society. Also a natural impulse for the more psychopathic type.
    A third type might suddenly decide that they must destroy your society for greater cosmic justice. The idealistic schizos are abundant in certain groups.

    And sometimes all three types start doing their thing at the same time.

    Letting in the best and brightest foreign devils should be super controlled and their integration into the host society–highly supervised and conditional, is what some might infer from watching the current developments in the Anglosphere and Western Europe.

    • Agree: Ray Caruso
    • Replies: @128
  59. Realist says:

    The biggest threat to America is Americans…not Chinese.

    • Agree: Tdstype2
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  60. mal says:
    @Max Payne

    To be honest, those Ukrainian roads look amazing compared to some areas in Detroit, Chicago, and New York/New Jersey.

    Also, Ukraine probably also has excellent public transportation system – even in Russia in the 90’s when things were bad, public transport was functional, so you didn’t need a car to get around.

    Today in Russia you simply track any bus or tram on Yandex maps and show up at the stop when they do. Easy peasy.

    I don’t know about modern Ukraine, but I would think they would retain a functional public transport, so they wouldn’t need so many cars.

    • Replies: @AP
    , @Mr. Hack
  61. 128 says:
    @Shortsword

    They had a higher GDP per capita than Japan in 1938.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
  62. 128 says:
    @Rahan

    Well a good measure is to dilute their influence, say no more than 5 percent of a cognitive elite ethnicity that makes up 2 percent of your population in certain professions like doctors or the student bodies of top universities, which will hinder their ability to form ethnic blocs, which was what the Ivy League did back then before the 60s, but in doing that you are basically getting rid of much of the positive effects of accepting that cognitive elite minority in the first place, such as concentrating their talent in particular places like your top academic institutions, not to mention that instituting such forced numerous classus like make your place a very unattractive destination for the talented minorities whose talents you are trying to attract in the first place. Also during the time that the Ivy League had these measures in place, the Jews were constantly trying to get rid of them, which they succeded in eventually.

  63. @128

    First of all, all historic GDP numbers like that are estimations. They were significantly behind in other measures such as life expectancy or education level. Their relatively high GDP per capita was mostly result of having large amounts of copper (Chile) and oil (Venezuela). A significant percent of the worlds total oil and copper came from Venezuela and Chile. Add to this that their population at the time was much lower (both populations has exploded by having around 5-6 fertility rate lasting almost up until the 70s).

    This is also a factor why Chile turned out so much more successful than Venezuela. Chile still produces a large percent of all copper (and they’re the largest producer by far) but Venezuelan oil stopped being as attractive after cheaper sources was found (middle east primarily).

    • Agree: mal
  64. @Eugene Norman

    “Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k” China won’t converge to those levels for the same reason European countries do not converge to Luxembourg or Switzerland.

  65. @Suicidal_canadian

    I clicked the Agree button by accident.

    Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers.

    I see the point at which you’re getting. Your theme is not 100 percent false but your facts are quite inaccurate.

  66. Wency says:
    @Tommy Vercetti

    It’s an interesting thought. Though the early childhood tests of ability show that blacks mature fastest and Asians the slowest, with whites in the middle. Blacks then die first and Asians last, even after accounting for lifestyle. So it seems like a pretty consistent and continuous pattern, and your thesis contradicts it.

    Those results could also be explained if the earlier tests catered better to Asian strengths (eg. math IQ) while later tests catered to other abilities, verbal IQ and so on, where they didn’t stand out as much.

    • Replies: @Lot
  67. AP says:
    @mal

    Ukrainian roads are no worse than American or Canadian ones around large cities such as Kiev or Lviv (as you wrote, roads in Detroit are far worse – I’ve also seen worse roads in parts of New York that are under eternal construction). The highway from Kiev to Zhytomir could be anywhere in North America, if not for the occasional old lady selling fruits or vegetables on the side of the roadway. But I’ve never seen worse roads than in deep rural Ukraine.

    It’s remarkable how well-maintained such roads are in North America.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Thanks: mal
  68. Lot says:
    @Wency

    There’s no question NE asians develop slowest physically.

    We should always assume Rushton’s B-W-A ordering applies to human traits absent good contrary evidence. Of course there are exceptions, like height.

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    But the fact that my view is PC in this one respect doesn’t make my view false. I do think NE Asians have higher and blacks lower intelligence, just not as big of a gap as IQ tests indicate.

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Anon
    , @snooker player
  69. BS says:
    @AP

    Interprovincial border control was similarly implemented at the onset in January and February (2 week centralized quarantine upon arrival, no crossing of provincial lines without hukou or urgent matter on the other side), which is why Wuhan/Hubei remained the epicenter of China’s outbreak. And of course you should also recall that a second outbreak threatened to spiral out of control in the Northeast, the origins of that infection being Russia (I assume it was the more contagious European strain), and that was put under control with extremely stringent lockdowns as well. The city of Qingdao tested something like 8 million people overnight because of a handful of untraceable cases recently. No matter how you spin it, the Chinese (over)reaction has been incomparable with the lackadaisical high-trust approach pursued by Western countries.

    • Thanks: AP
  70. Wency says:
    @Lot

    China isn’t exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don’t know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee’s father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

  71. @Max Payne

    In reply I live in BC and have 7 figures of financial wealth. I stand by everything I said. Every road in the Ukraine has potholes and every road in BC doesn’t? Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge. I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
    A preponderance of Canadians own three vehicles? Wow they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance! By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Gullwing”, it will end up worth absolutely zero.
    I do admit that comparing BC and the Ukraine is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. Of course there is substantial poverty in the Ukraine. I have seen this and am aware of it. My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got – not what you paid. GDP should be compared on the basis of PPP and even then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
    On the basis of PPP China was well ahead of the USA many years ago.

    • Replies: @BS
    , @Max Payne
  72. Mitleser says:
    @Wency

    There are some other relevant German game developers like Piranha Bytes and the developers of the Anno games.

    • Replies: @Wency
  73. BS says:
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    If you live in BC and you have under 7 figures of wealth, I’m sorry to say this but I think you still qualify as an unwashed Safeway shopping prole.

    • Replies: @Lot
  74. songbird says:

    I think the per capitas of Japan, SK, and Taiwan would all be higher, if they were less isolated. Historically, during the Maoist period, their geography could not be compared to the geography of the US or Western Europe. At least, not in an economic sense.

    Modern China is the missing piece of that. It is like the US suddenly rising out of the seas, to connect with a poor island nation called Canada.

  75. Wency says:
    @Mitleser

    Yeah, and I know they also have some niche studios like Egosoft that makes the X series, and Daedalic Studios that makes some niche point-and-click adventure games. The original Anno developer was Austrian, but it’s now under (French) Ubisoft’s German umbrella. Which itself is much less important than Ubisoft Montreal alone. We can debate exactly how little Germany outputs here, but my basic point stands, and I’ve been noticing and wondering about it for a while.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  76. Dmitry says:
    @rensselaer

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller

    Japanese and Chinese are more or less the same race, and they look like the same nationality. However, one is a developed culture and the other is third world culture. Culture is determining the difference between the countries (such as in this example, where in the 20th century almost the same race can produce one of the world’s most successful advanced countries, and one of the world’s most unsuccessful countries).

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    any of an IQ advantage

    “IQ” tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    This correlation with industrialization of a country, however, is more as effect, than as cause.

    Industrialized society formally indoctrinates children with concepts like time discipline and test-taking culture, and this is the cause of higher scores in “IQ tests”.

    In societies at a lower historical stage, the children will not understand what they are supposed to conform to (and will answer questions more creatively), and will not be indoctrinated with time-discipline.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, s

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    So the cultural divergence of high achievement in Japan from the low achievement in China, can be perceived for a few centuries, until around the beginning 21st century.

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films – they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

  77. Dmitry says:
    @Wency

    Germany is a leader in the post-war art world in painting (e.g. Anselm Kiefer, Gerhard Richter), as well as areas like industrial design

    Germany was a world leader in cinema in the 1920s. Then their cinema level has collapsed because of the National Socialism. But German cinema recovered to some extent in the 1970s. Directors like Werner Herzog, Fassbinder, and Wim Wenders, are considered influential in the cinem world.
    .
    In terms of classical music, Germany/Austria was able to maintain the world leading orchestral level, which continues today. Deutsche Grammophon also rebuilt very soon after the war.

    I can’t say anything about German literature, as I don’t read German. I assume German literature and philosophy didn’t exactly recover after the war (but neither has it prospered in many other countries).

  78. Lot says:
    @BS

    In America Safeway ranges from high to low end depending on its neighborhood.

    Odd to see someone call it “prole.”

  79. @Wency

    China isn’t exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don’t know that it ever will

    Chinese literature and art is underwhelming for the whole of its history (although of course has some highlights). Even during the time of the bourgeois republic, its authors (Lu Xun etc.) were greatly inferior to Japan.

  80. @OneTimeCommentator

    Taiwan is not a real country (inasmuch as it’s not internationally recognized), which probably hurts and has hurt its growth to an extent, like reducing FDI or causing some level of capital flight, and brain drain. China might have other issues with similar results (it’s nominally a communist country, and a totalitarian dictatorship), so perhaps FDI is not as high as it could be either, and perhaps some people leave it due to this as well. Though I think the level of the latter, the human capital flight, is not as high as in Taiwan, I’m willing to say these factors even out. But there’s a chance that these factors net favor Mainland China over Taiwan.

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Also perhaps SJW politics are going to hurt America and the US sphere economies relative to China. Does it hurt productivity to have woman quotas or other diversity quotas in force? Maybe it doesn’t. But maybe it does. China doesn’t have these. Greater meritocracy might help China.

  81. Mitleser says:
    @Wency

    AK did ask basically the same question about Russia: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-no-video-games/
    One of the answers:

    1. I assume that Russia’s own, partially independent IT ecosystem soaks up a much larger share of the local programming talent than is the case in East-Central Europe, where the great bulk of the IT ecosystem is an extension of Silicon Valley.

    SAP, one of the top software companies of the world is Germany-based.
    So, maybe the German IT ecosystem has also other priorities, and developing computer games being not one of them.

    • Replies: @Wency
  82. @AP

    Taiwan brain drain and economies of scale look worse than they will likely look in China. Even if we disregard the brain drain, we cannot disregard the economies of scale. China is bound to be richer than Taiwan due to this one factor alone.

  83. @AP

    Once Chinese GDP is twice the size of the US, economies of scale would actually be significantly better than in the latter. I’m not sure we understand if or how much the USA benefits from higher economies of scale – it certainly depends on the size of the economy more than on the size of the population. Though the latter might matter somewhat, too, which would increase the Chinese advantage over the US (let alone Taiwan), resulting in a bigger GDP still. And then we are still assuming no penalty for diversity quotas and the like in the US. Which would be surprising if you could have such a massive phenomenon for free.

    • Replies: @Escher
  84. songbird says:
    @Hyperborean

    The US is viewed as a high mobility country, but I know people who refuse to move to areas where they would have a higher standard living (ex: a much better house, at a much cheaper price) because they don’t like the demographics of the state they would be moving to. I presume China, being more homogeneous, would not suffer this problem to the same extent. Of course, this might be balanced out by the fact that they don’t have “yellow flight”, from their urban centers. But I understand that many still have lengthy commutes.

    Of course, unions never really achieved power in China, so there might be less impetus for businesses to move. And I’m not sure whether the one child policy might tie people down more than if there were multiple siblings. But on the whole, it seems like moving to depressed areas might be more attractive than in India, where people might dislike crossing tribal boundaries.

    In the US, areas where people moved away from (racially white) became reforested, and considered scenic places where you could observe nature, and good places for recreation.

  85. Mr. XYZ says:

    Almost all US population growth from now to 2050 will accrue to lower IQ ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic Whites are in outright natural decline.

    That’s actually not quite true. While US Asians are probably reproducing at below-replacement levels, their numbers are actually being heavily replenished through mass immigration:

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2018/09/asian-immigrants-latin-americans-united-states-study-news/

    https://usa.inquirer.net/7041/asians-will-largest-immigrant-group-us-2055

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  86. @AlexanderGrozny

    It takes dozens of MSc & Phd candidates and several professors plus years of hard work and millions of research grants/budget to conduct scientific research this days – even for mid-scale projects.

    But it takes only one single Syrian rocket-scientist and 1€-knife plus 2 minutes to destroy the lives of the above-mentioned Nobel-prize-winning research-team.

    It takes several productive persons’ tax payments to feed, house and police the 5 children of an aspiring rapper.

    Biden goons and Trump soldiers might speak louder at the family gathering, they do not pull out the 9mm and shoot each other.

    But if a boy from the Remno clan disrespect a boy from the Aziz clan, the Berlin police department better call in reenforcement.

    You see quality can only offset mediocrity only up to a certain level.

  87. @utu

    How much is the West ahead due to sneakerheads’ obsession?

  88. Wency says:
    @Mitleser

    That’s a good thought that hadn’t occurred to me. France (and for that matter, Japan) doesn’t have anything like SAP, which could have something to do with why their top software companies are video game companies.

    The US is able to be #1 in gaming and every other sort of software due to its size and its brain vacuum, pulling in half the talent of Asia and Europe to work on this stuff as well. But other countries, even major economies, mostly need to pick one or the other.

  89. @Lot

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China’s EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that’s all.

  90. @reiner Tor

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Does economies of scale by itself add to GDP per capita? I think this is a crucial element to understand because one thing that China won’t have like South Korea and Taiwan are export markets relative to size of domestic economy. China is already the world’s largest exporter, so there’s limited room for doubling exports. South Korea never had this problem in 1990 (where China is approximately in the development cycle).

    • Replies: @Pericles
  91. @Lot

    My point about the Chinese tending to be more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese was more of a general assessment of their national personality types based on my experience dealing with and doing business with them.

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    The major Japanese brands like Sony had their heyday in the 70s and 80s marketing Western invented electronics like the transistor radio and compact disc. Sony and most of corporate Japan have been mostly stagnant since the 90s and are generally non-entities in IT and software, and have been struggling against Koreans, Chinese, and others in hardware.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    I don’t think contemporary low level, children’s pop culture exports are an indication of greater creativity. By this standard, Japan would be considered more “creative” than Germany, France, Italy, etc. which I don’t think anyone here would agree with.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Mao’s guerrilla army of Chinese Communists is generally considered the victor of the 2nd Sino-Japanese War against Imperial Japan, so I don’t see how this indicates anything. Remember that by then Japan had been copying the West for almost 3 quarters of a century. Despite all that copying, Japan’s performance is generally regarded as unimpressive, whether against Chinese guerrillas, the Soviets at Khalkhin Gol, and of course the US.

    • LOL: EldnahYm
  92. @Dmitry

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    This doesn’t make any sense. There was no notion “third world” and “first world” in the pre-modern encounters between the West and East Asia. The first Westerners to travel to both China and Japan were the Iberians and Jesuits in the 16th century. Shortly after these Iberians and Jesuits visited Japan, Japan went totally isolationist with the Edo Period which started in 1603. Westerners were expelled from Japan, and there was strict segregation between Japanese and Westerners. The only Westerners permitted contact with Japan were a small group of Dutch traders, and this was under highly strict, segregated conditions on a specific island that ordinary Japanese were not allowed to enter, and Dutch were not allowed to leave.

    This isolationism lasted until the Meiji Restoration when Japan underwent a wholesale copying of the West.

    The “cultural divergence” was just a much smaller, conformist society copying the West much earlier than China did.

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    Neither of them had much “advanced research in maths” in premodern times. If you’re going to cite 17th century Japanese mathematics, it’s not any more impressive than the history of Chinese math, especially since the 17th century Japanese stuff is largely derived from earlier Chinese work on algebraic operations.

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    Japan had been copying the West for more than half a century then, so I’m not sure why it would be notable that they resemble European films.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films – they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    I don’t see why this wouldn’t characterize the bulk of Japanese pop culture, which is mainly for the children’s market even if many adults now play video games and watch anime.

  93. Let’s try to incorporate some numbers! This is Karlin’s blog after all.

    2050

    China: 1.4 billion
    US: 380 million

    In 2050, China will have 3.7 times more people than the US. If China’s GDP per capita is 50% of US GDP per capita, then aggregate Chinese GDP is 185% of US GDP.

    2019

    US: $65,300
    South Korea: $31,800 [48.6% of the US]

    South Korea still hasn’t managed to achieve 50% GDP per capita. For China to reach 50% requires the US to be less economically robust in 2050 then in 2019. That will likely be the case. The trend for the US over the last several decades has been a slide towards low growth stagnation. I believe US real GDP growth per capita over the next several decades will be substantially under 1%.

    World Bank DataBank

    1980-1999: 2.3%
    2000-2019: 1%
    2020-2050: Surely substantially under 1%?

    Demographically the US will be about 45% white and 7% Asian in 2050. California in 2020 is worse demographically, but the state economy has held together and many enclaves are thriving. So I doubt there will be any economic collapse in the US by 2050 due primarily to demographics.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @AP
  94. For a 10 year period, Japan’s GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US.

    Unbelievable that Japan had a higher GDP per capita 25 years ago than today.

    • Replies: @128
    , @Shortsword
    , @utu
  95. d dan says:
    @last straw

    China can never win:

    If China keeps low profile: proof that Chinese is conformist and uncreative.
    If China speaks up: proof that Chinese is aggressive and arrogant.
    If China is lagging: proof of China’s backwardness.
    If China is catching up: proof of China’s stealing and copying.
    If China is leading: proof of China’s security thread to the West.
    If China tries to be Chinese: proof of China’s inferiority.
    If China tries to be Western: proof of Western superiority.

    Remember the famous “A Poem for the West”?

    • Agree: Ray Caruso, SveVid
    • Replies: @Ray Caruso
  96. @Svevlad

    I can’t see how the USA will not collapse within the next 10 years when, from an outsider’s perspective, it looks like everyone has gone to the nutty-bin.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  97. songbird says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    In 2050, Nigeria’s projected pop will be 401 million. Bigger than the US! More than 8x America’s black pop! Should be quite interesting to see.

  98. @last straw

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    [MORE]

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Eugene Norman
    , @A123
  99. Holy cow! Lively discussion of Chinese GDP in 2050, 100 comments and counting. Why don’t we ask a more pressing question: will humans survive the next 30 years? If the electoral fraud in the US stands, the country with huge nuclear arsenal would have hopelessly senile president. There is a non-negligible chance that Alzheimer-in-Chief, due to his own stupidity or the stupidity of neocons manipulating this hapless puppet, starts WWIII. Then the issue of GDP, Chinese or any other, becomes moot.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
    , @HeebHunter
  100. Pericles says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Any side bets on how long Taiwan will remain apart from the mainland?

  101. Lot says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Great collection of “things you get when you can’t afford anything better.”

    “Anker” is one of their very top brands? Do they make anything other than USB batteries and cords? Do you think a US equivalent would have “Belkin” as a top brand?

    Korea is 95% smaller than China, but has vastly more trusted brands.

  102. @another one

    Where will the resources that China needs come from? From whatever supplier wishes to make more money selling to them. China is, despite western propaganda, popular in Africa.

  103. 128 says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Around that time the Japanese yen was at 80 to a dollar.

  104. 128 says:

    The Japanese immigrants were actually known to be small business owners or farmland owners before WW2, maybe the Westerners think that the Japanese are more organized simply because Japan was a lot smaller than China, and hence easier to rule. The Japanese only adopted Western culture superficially after 1851, but otherwise remained culturally distinct. As for Taiwan, if brain drain is a problem, then it was only a problem in the past few years, in MER terms, Taiwanese GDP per capita started to fall behind Korean GDP per capita starting in the 2000s. And Taiwan makes up for its small domestic market with its very large export market.

  105. @Dmitry

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    Historically of course the Chinese were one of the world’s great powers and civilisations. Equal to the West/Europe for most of its history, more civilised from 500-1500 or so.

    “IQ” tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    Not at all. There’s a strong correlation between IQ and individual success, and between IQ and national success. Although the measuring the latter is a bit suspect.

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    Nonsense.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_mathematics

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  106. @Blinky Bill

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    The top 4 or 5 are world famous.

  107. A123 says:
    @Blinky Bill

    Knowing a brand and trusting a brand are two very different things.

    #38 — Chery (a.k.a. Cherry) Auto is on your list. Their brand identity in the U.S. & Europe dates back ~10 Years to a series of OMG EPIC FAIL crash tests. The one below would have resulted in driver decapitation.

    Below the MORE line you can see the comparable test for a current Mazda. Don’t be fooled by the air bag. Look at the vehicle roof deformation to understand how badly the Chery Amulet/A15 performed.

    #43 — Geely was also shamed during crash testing, but did better than Chery.

    PEACE 😇


    [MORE]

    • Replies: @last straw
  108. @last straw

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    • Replies: @128
    , @last straw
  109. @Mr. XYZ

    Immigration from the high IQ Asian countries is rapidly drying up. https://cis.org/Report/Immigrant-Population-Growth-Slows

    Annatar from another thread:

    From 2010-17, number of Chinese immigrants grew from 2.167m to 2.844m, only rose to 2.854m by 2019, no growth
    Number of Russian immigrants declined from 404,000 to 392,000

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Mr. XYZ
  110. 128 says:
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Tesla > BYD or whatever Chinese electric car, how is anyone really going to dispute this? Also how many Chinese watch Netflix?

  111. @china-russia-all-the-way

    That wasn’t a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan’s decline in growth.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @A123
  112. Dmitry says:
    @Mary Marianne

    America is a crazy and dysfunctional country. But much things we are shocked about in America today, were just as bad in the 1980s, or even 1960s America. While the propaganda in the Soviet times, exaggerated many of the negative aspects of America’s internal life; they didn’t always have to exaggerate very much – more often you can find a basis of truth in their claims.

    This internal dysfunction in America, coexisted with external success and power in the 20th century. (It’s not impossible for internal dysfunction and external success to coexist, at certain times of history.)

    There is however, a difference in the mood about America, which is result of the technological change. There was no internet in the 1980s or 1990s, so both the attention of Americans was focused in a different way, and also with a different filter on what aspect of the country’s discourse was exported abroad.

    Now we are getting a much greater access to American negative internal information abroad. For example, knowledge about the terrible incompetence of NASA is being exported abroad – you can access the internal American documentary on the Challenger disaster, from Netflix at any time.

    Internet also changes peoples’ perception of their own country. Until 2000, you would access the “national life” through glamorous television shows, with beautiful and well-speaking presenters. Whereas now, most Americans access their national discussion, through the internet, and with internet you are thrown into an unglamorous reality of ordinary people and their complaints.

    This mass switchover from television to internet, is also happening now in Russia, with around 10 years of delay in comparison to USA. As more and more millions of people are moving from the television to the internet as their main engagement with national discussions, there is much more focus on the negative problems in the country. This “deglamorization” and “demoralization” is not necessarily a bad thing; it can be reversing some of the rosy glasses that was unnaturally promoted by television culture.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  113. @128

    Exactly. China doesn’t produce any innovation of it’s own. Pretty much all of Huawei’s creations are apple fakes.

    • Agree: Tyler Durden
    • Thanks: AaronB
    • Troll: showmethereal
  114. 128 says:
    @AlexanderGrozny

    So why do I see Chinese characters in Chinese TV shows always using an Apple laptop instead of some domestic brand?

    https://www.trustedreviews.com/reviews/iphone-12

  115. A123 says:
    @Shortsword

    That wasn’t a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan’s decline in growth.

    You Are Correct.

    The posters who insist that the world needs a “new reserve currency” miss a crucial point:
    — The new reserve currency will immediately jump 3-5% due to its status.
    — The USD will immediately depreciate 3-5% as a non-reserve currency!

    American exports boosted by a 6-10% currency differential would have a massive, employment creating, boom period if they could ditch the Reserve Premium penalty.

    SJW Globalists tampering with trade to inflict SJW values on those who believe in God would be crushed the Reserve Currency becoming something they could not control. This would also be a massive win for all U.S. workers blue, pink, and white collar.

    Huge numbers of new jobs and significantly higher wages would easily devastate any possible inflation penalty. It will be easy to spot the DNC’s Chamber of Commerce lackeys. Anyone doom-calling via inflation fear is 100% guaranteed to be a paid enemy collaborator.

    As a Patriotic MAGA American, I give this prayer.

    Dear Lord,

    Please free the Christians of the U.S. from the devastating plague of the Reserve Currency Premium.

    AMEN

    If this prayer is answered America will become strong again.

    PEACE 😇

  116. Dmitry says:
    @AlexanderGrozny

    One of the reasons the growth in China’s economy is so fast, is because it is powered by importation from abroad of mature technology, rather than technology development.

    Chinese power has wisely prioritized the importation of new kinds of production from abroad, and it seems quite common as a story that foreign companies establish in China more rapidly and efficiently, than in their own countries.

    For example, Tesla is finding it faster to increase production in China, than it was in the USA. Next year the factory in China, could become the largest producing Tesla factory in the world, and it will be exporting from China to Europe. Yet it feels like only a few months ago when they started building this factory, and previously that Tesla was boasting about how it would promote American local production.

    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with over 500,000 cars produced in China next year, supply chain report says

    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with a quicker production ramp than previously expected at Gigafactory Shanghai, based on a new supply chain report.

    At the end of last quarter, Tesla reported a production capacity of 250,000 Model 3 cars at Gigafactory Shanghai in China…

    Now a new report using anonymous sources, including sources within the supply chain, from China’s 36Kr, claim that Tesla is about to surprise us with even higher production.

    They state that Tesla plans to produce 550,000 vehicles, including 300,000 Model 3 cars and 250,000 Model Y cars, at Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021.

    https://electrek.co/2020/11/09/tesla-tsla-surprise-over-500000-cars-produced-china-next-year-supply-chain-report/

  117. utu says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    What if the halting of Japan’s growth was engineered by Bank of Japan going against the Ministry of Finance that was responsible for Japan’s economic model? According to this documentary it took years to carry it out.

    Pulling away the curtains from the ‘Princes of the Yen’
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2003/08/10/books/book-reviews/pulling-away-the-curtains-from-the-princes-of-the-yen/

    Richard A. Werner has written a rare book. “The Princes of the Yen” is a scholarly, thoroughly researched treatise on economics that reads like a detective novel.

    The book is about the autocrats who run the Bank of Japan, how they operate and what they have been trying to achieve. In the process, many puzzles about Japan’s economy are solved. These “princes” are neither elected by Japanese citizens nor held accountable to their elected officials. Presiding princes choose their successors who, in turn, seem to be accountable only to their benefactors.

    Werner specifically accuses the princes of surreptitiously using their control over Japan’s supply of credit to prevent an economic recovery for the past decade. Why? In order to achieve the “reform” or transformation of Japan’s economy into a carbon copy of today’s U.S. economy that the princes deemed necessary for Japan.

    Werner begins by pointing out something rarely discussed in Japan: that the “traditional” Japanese economic model — widely considered responsible for the “economic miracle” that built the world’s second-largest economy from the bombed-out ruins of World War II in just 30 years — isn’t traditional at all.

    Company unions, lifetime employment, government regulation and a business ethos favoring cooperation over competition and customers and employees over stockholders were consciously introduced during World War II. With the approval of the U.S., Japan retained its wartime economic system and kept its bureaucratic elite in power. This enabled Japan’s “economic miracle” and conquest of world markets after the war.

    Werner says money was the main tool bureaucrats used to control Japan’s economy during and after the war. The credit controls survived largely unchanged into the postwar era, taking the form of the extralegal and secretive “window guidance” operated by the BOJ. According to Werner, “guiding” credit to selected industries and preventing others, such as consumers, from obtaining it, was at the core of Japan’s postwar success.

    Werner next examines why these “princes of the yen” crippled Japan’s economy from the mid-1980s. Werner uses the princes’ own utterances, together with an analysis of their actual but little-known credit policies, to reveal their goals. These were never secret, but plain for all to see. The princes have consistently argued for the need to “reform” or “transform” Japan’s economy, through structural changes, into the type of deregulated and liberalized system demanded by U.S. trade negotiators.

    Werner traces the origin of this reform movement, now mostly associated with Koizumi and Finance Minister Heizo Takenaka, back to 1983 when “prince” Tadashi Sasaki called for a transformation and liberalization of the Japanese economy.

    • Agree: Kent Nationalist
    • Thanks: SveVid
    • Replies: @showmethereal
    , @Mefobills
  118. utu says:
    @Pericles

    Until CCP relinquish its power in China.

  119. A123 says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK,

    CIS does not allow hot-linking so your attempted graphics embed @ #112 failed for most readers.

    The UR site engine can find local copies of downloaded graphics. Even if it looks good to you, the problem exists for others.

    PEACE 😇

  120. mal says:

    Chinese just sold negative interest rate debt to the Europeans for the first time.

    The Chinese sale, which attracted final orders of about €16 billion ($18.9 billion) for the €4 billion ($4.7 billion) worth of bonds on offer, included 5-year debt priced with a yield of minus 0.152%. China also sold 10-year and 15-year bonds with yields below 1%.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/19/economy/china-negative-yield-bond/index.html

    People who think that high debt loads will be a problem for Chinese (or Americans for that matter) are incorrect.

    Debt is not a problem when you get paid to borrow. (Its not exactly how negative rates work, but it only takes a few accounting tricks to make it work this way).

    I of course welcome this move. I have been a proponent of negative interest rates for the longest time and can’t wait for them to arrive to the US. This will allow us to reform our current commercial banking system into something much better and I think our friendly overlords at the Federal Reserve are finally getting the point of this inevitability.

    Chinese are simply ahead of the curve as usual. Regardless, there is no alternative.

    • Replies: @128
    , @Mefobills
  121. utu says:
    @Not Only Wrathful

    There is a fundamental problem in the study. If you test masks as a protection among unmasked population all studies will show there is no significant difference. This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected. Perhaps 50 contacts instead of 10. So in long enough period of time masks in the Danish experiment regimen do not make much difference.

    Furthermore this study does not look at the initial viral dose. Do mask wearer get less virus and thus had milder cause of disease? It would be good to know because other studies suggest an affirmative answer to this question.

    This Danish study shows a total misunderstanding of what masks do. Or was sponsored by the Big Pharma that was never into masks because they want to sell drugs and vaccines.

    Asians got masks right. They know that masks are not there to protect you but to protect others. The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    Mask function is to reduce R0 and this happens if there is almost universal masking.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/?showcomments#comment-4166108
    Obviously a mask reduces the probability p(T) of getting infected in time T but not to zero. Because masks are imperfect. The probability p(T) increases with T and for sufficiently long time T the probability p(T) is 1. Longer time T means more contacts with potentially infectious people. A masked person in the environment of mask-less group has reduced probability of getting infected but in a long enough time as virus jumps from one person to another person the epidemic continues and he remains among the infectious people so in a long enough time T he will get infected as well. He will not be among the first but eventually he will get it.

    But everything changes when almost everybody wears a mask. The probability of virus jumping between people is greatly reduced and the fact that the time an infected person remains infectious is finite means the epidemic can be brought to a halt. By wearing masks we can outlast (on average) the infected mask wearing people. Before the infected people can infect you they cease to be infectious. This means that the reproduction number R0 is dropping below one and getting smaller and then after crossing an infection point as time T increases the probability p(T) of you getting infected is actually getting smaller (because there is less and less infectious people) which is the opposite of what we had in the previous scenario. So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.

    • Agree: AP, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @kirksig
  122. 128 says:

    Well, the financial repression of consumers is great for corporations, not so great for consumers in terms of their purchasing power.

    • Replies: @mal
  123. Where most China Experts get there news from! 😂😂😂😂😂

    • LOL: showmethereal
  124. 128 says:
    @mal

    But that implies that the Chinese corporate landscape is full of zombies sucking up capital that could go to more productive uses.

  125. @AlexanderGrozny

    All these youtube channels making money off westoid cope lol.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  126. mal says:
    @128

    Which consumer? The rich benefit from low rates because asset prices go up, it makes them richer. Moderately well off 10% benefit from low rates as their 401ks grow securely, guaranteed by Federal Reserve, because stock index funds and bond funds go up in value as well. Their Robin Hood accounts benefit from Fed actions as well.

    Corporations benefit from low rates because cheap money makes it easier to buy back stock and have their CEO buy another yacht. It is also a lot easier to finance a $billion factory at 0% interest rather than 10% interest.

    The poor don’t see the low rates so they are screwed but they are screwed either way, high interest rates won’t help them.

    Deeply negative interest rates destroy the banks though. Once the banks are weakened they can be safely nationalized and credit can be converted into a public utility like it should be. Then low interest rates will make it to the poor as well, Central Banks will make sure of that. They are already talking about digital currency and national accounts. They know its inevitable.

    And “loss of purchasing power” is nonsense – we some of the lowest inflation rates in the world history right now, aside from the three usual suspects. In US, healthcare and education are inflated because they are operated by gatekeeper cartels, nothing to do with interest rates. Housing is impacted by interest rates, true, but housing prices are not bad out of the bubble areas. If you are poor, don’t buy a house in San Francisco, seems pretty simple.

  127. @Dmitry

    Yes, internet is useful to discuss about negative national issues that may be (intentionally) avoided by TV or mainstream media.
    However, it has a lot of negative drawbacks.
    1. Probably more misinformation and half truths in the internet than ‘truth’ especially when it comes to controversial and political topics.
    2. You probably have too much faith in human intelligence to discern the truth from the cacophony of lies, distortions, misinformation etc etc flooding the internet. I generally think the majority of humans are not that smart and even more easily manipulated via internet than traditional media.
    3. ‘deglamorization’ itself is the NEW GLAMOR!
    4. Internet is not totally ‘free’ nor ‘unbiased’ nor ‘fair’ … I guess Anatoly Karlin can attest to this. Western Elites, through Western owned or inclined companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter etc have policies that somehow will reduce the influence of narratives that may counter what these elites really want. Internet had been and is still the vehicle used by these Western elites to manipulate the psyche of populations to clamor for regime change in Governments viewed as detriment to Western interests and monopoly on power.

    Internet is a double – edged sword. It’s not free from manipulation and control by elites(predominantly from the West) and even dangerous individuals who can destroy countries.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @128
    , @Dmitry
  128. mal says:

    If it could, why doesn’t it?

    There’s no such thing as “capital”, not at zero to negative interest rates. Interest rate is the price of capital and at those rates price of capital is zero. Capital is worthless. Only credit matters. Which is why all your counting of factories and Teslas and other worthless commodities is so cute and quaint. 🙂

    Remember when the world took a vacation for a few weeks back in March-April and oil price went to like negative $37? Yeah, its kinda like that.

    Chinese are using credit to support consumption just like everybody else. They just do it through Keynesian make work corporate projects. I prefer basic income schemes but Chinese way works too, its just less efficient. And if it accomplishes some other non monetary national goal, more power to them.

    Anyway, there is no more “productive” way to use “capital”. The objective of the economy, any economy, is to produce scarce resources. Currently, the most scarce resource is the consumer. Nobody cares about garbage like commodities and capital and “muh productivity”.

    We use credit to create consumer. It is the most productive use of resources we can currently envision. Welcome to the future.

    • Replies: @128
    , @AaronB
    , @Levtraro
  129. @utu

    Propagandists are from both sides.
    It’s human nature to justify and ‘intellectualize’ the side we favour. I doubt any of us can be truly neutral and objective and dispassionate.

    • Agree: utu
  130. 128 says:

    Or for the people here who think the coronavirus pandemic is one big hoax try saying or trying to incite people in the middle of Tiananmen that the coronavirus pandemic is one big hoax, see what would happen to you and your cause right thereafter.

  131. 128 says:
    @Sinotibetan

    How much disinformation is being spread by the blog authors and people on this very website? What would China do to the Chinese version of Unz.com and Ron Unz or the bloggers here? Would he be deplatformed from Baidu, Weibao, and Wechat? Thrown in jail for the next 1000 years?

  132. 128 says:
    @mal

    I remember someone saying that if you step into a Japanese corporate office, it was like a throwback to the year 1980 in terms of the technology that they are using, vs. an American office. Like how many American offices still use fax machines? In a normal economy, rows and rows of empty buildings lying around, the vast majority of which will never be lived on, will be regarded as a waste of funds.

    • Replies: @mal
  133. @utu

    Daniel is from the West, but he has a Chinese heart.


    [MORE]

  134. @128

    Disinformation is from both sides. You mean to tell me all pro West blogs/websites are nothing but truthful words with no manipulation and deceit? If so, I am sorry for your naivety and/or great faith.
    You have a binary way of thinking that my criticism of the West = approval/support of what China would do for anti-Chinese websites that appear in their platforms.
    China lacks sophistication in soft power. If an anti-China website appears, they would de-platform it/censor /ban. It somehow backfires on them. It will justify the notion that anti-Chinese rhetoric may be the truth(and I don’t mean to say there are no truths in them, there are/might be some).
    The West is sophisticated in soft power, they create a semblance of freedom and fairness but have subtle ways to undermine unfavorable narratives. Example SJWs lead to an almost tyrannical power on the mind on what is to be accepted and what is to be rejected and considered abominable.
    The Chinese(and Russian) reaction by banning and censorship shows their unsophisticated soft power skills. It does not negate the fact that Western governments and elites manipulate, deceive and misinform the masses. They are just more sophisticated than the Chinese and Russians are.

    • Agree: blatnoi
  135. mal says:
    @128

    Japan is a sad dead country. Their monetary policy is just fine – their GDP per capita have been rising nicely since early 2000’s (aside from 2009 but its not their fault), Bank of Japan was doing a proper job of ensuring adequate money supply to support growth.

    But their government are brain dead monkeys. Multiple consumption tax hikes in a consumer based economy where consumers were literally dying out already (net population decline crushes your consumer growth). What were they thinking? Functionally retarded.

    And thanks to correct BoJ policy, Japanese people recieved free $11 trillion. And did they use this money to produce more Japanese and more consumers? Invest in their young? No. They basically gave it to Wall Street like greedy cowards afraid of their own future.

    And now they are dying, paying for their own disgrace.

  136. @A123

    SAIC, Geely models pass European crash test with 4 stars:
    https://europe.autonews.com/article/20111130/ANE/111129908/saic-geely-models-pass-european-crash-test-with-flying-colors

    You don’t see much report when Chinese cars pass safety tests.

    Last year, China Automobile Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) has become the first co-approved test facility outside of Europe by Euro NCAP. It was approved to conduct Euro NCAP related crash tests in China with accredited Europe test labs. The co-approved test facility is located in Chongqing, China.
    https://www.horiba-mira.com/media-centre/news/2019/07/15/mira-china-and-caeri-partner-to-be-the-first-co-approved-supplier-for-euro-ncap-crash-tests-in-china/

    Nio ES8 EV probably will have good safety rating when it is exported to Europe next year:
    https://www.chinapev.com/ev-2/nio/reliable-or-not-nio-es8-crash-test-interpretation/

    Be patient. It’s just a matter of time when China will produce world-class safe cars.

  137. kirksig says:
    @utu

    The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    But there is obviously an ultimate selfish motive that people should recognize: by engaging in the communal effort of wearing masks to suppress the epidemic, the likelihood of any given individual contracting the virus goes down. So you should be able to appeal to people’s selfish motives to get them to wear masks, especially since the cost and effort of wearing a mask is so low.

    So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.

    Exactly. The logic is obviously very simple. There is a respiratory virus circulating in the population, and barriers to respiration such as masks slow the spread, lowering the likelihood of any particular individual from contracting the virus from someone else. So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @utu
  138. @AlexanderGrozny

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    I see you don’t know much about the auto industry. None of the EV manufacturers I mentioned produce rip-offs. That’s why Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are doing quite well on the U.S. stock markets, and Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway never attempted to sell their shares in BYD.

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
  139. @Sinotibetan

    In fact, Western soft power is Supreme at the moment, and it’s one of the reasons why I don’t think China will replace the USA as superpower by 2050. In fact, USA is using soft power to bring regime change in potential rivals and so far they will be relentless with it. And if China is not careful, succeed in it.
    To be frank, I am no fan of CPC nor Xi. And I do recognize many faults with the current Chinese Government. However, I am against the Progressive elites now in power in the West and their progressive ideals even more. To me, it’s more of a clash of ideals and I cannot support the current one in vogue in the West. It is my view /conviction that these mad progressive ideals will ultimately drive the West to civilizational suicide and ethnocultural obliteration. It’s just not obvious or deemed too ridiculous for many Pro West supporters.
    Rather, it is USA waning in power and prestige in future by concerted efforts of rival powers (not necessarily China) and mostly because of the inability of their own supporters and citizens to see their civilizational doom entirely due to the policies of their elites – ie hegemonic overreach. Too much self belief in their own ideals almost to the point of arrogance. A strange self belief that America or the West can never have the dismal fate of past Empires. To me, the writing is already on the wall for the West.
    To me, China or Russia or other ‘non Western’ powers should resist these progressive idealogues creeping into their nations until the West ultimately collapses due to the very same ideals.
    Perhaps I am totally wrong about this. Then hurrah for the West. If I am right, then I am just sorry for the demise of the West (which I used to admire).

    • Replies: @blatnoi
  140. @AlexanderGrozny

    Then the U.S. should have nothing to worry about Huawei? It’s much ado about nothing?

  141. Znzn says:

    Western culture really did not go off the rails until the mid to late 2000s (think of all the social taboos or fringe social trends in mainstream US society as late as 1985, 1995, or even 2004 or so that are mainstream now). And no, San Francisco and New York are not really considered part of mainstream US culture.

  142. Anon[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    This doesn’t make sense to me. TTT correlates with IQ, IQ is valid in all races, but TTT somehow correlates with IQ at a different … frequency or granularity in the different races? When X strongly correlates with Y, it’s mostly the case that either X is Y or both are mediated or caused by the same thing.

    Google Scholar has only three hits for “test taking temperament, so it’s not something that has been rigorously studied.

    At any rate “IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests” is Myth 22 in Russsell Warne’s new book, In the Know: Debunking 35 Myths about Human Intelligence. He points out that IQ, as measured by written tests, correlates positively and negatively with dozens of outcomes completely external to the test, so the idea that it is some kind of intratest fiction is unsupportable.

    Warne does allow that “test strategy” is a minor factor (when to guess, how much time to spend on questions, and so on). But that is something that can be figured out from the application booklet or can be taught in half an hour, and whether you have figured out these test strategies is itself a measure of intelligence.

    • Replies: @Lot
  143. Escher says:
    @reiner Tor

    Good point.
    I wonder how much the US economy benefits from the sheer purchasing power of the country in terms of negotiating the best prices for imports.
    Almost all consumer products are cheaper in America than anywhere else.

  144. Znzn says:

    As for Taiwan, admittedly, it was a decent mirror image of what China would be if the KMT won, the poz movement in Taiwan was basically the fringe of the fringe of the fringe as recently as 10 or 15 years ago.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  145. Max Payne says:
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    What you say are just observations of (universal) bad consumer habits…. Not faults of the country itself.

    My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got – not what you paid.

    Bro…the vast majority of Canadians were just handed $12,000 for nothing and those still jobless got (or are getting) another $16,000 (on top of whatever EI they clocked in) even though employers are sucking dick to hire people. In what country can an individual get $28,000 for a bitch nothing flu? That’s Canadian dollars btw, not rupees or rubels or whatever fake currency people are using.

    I know enough families that appreciated the extra income boost (for example stay-at-home moms get that $12k-$28k, which is a nice cushion on top of her husbands income).

    A drug addict in Vancouver right now is probably shooting up $28k worth of heroin in his veins like a boss.

    The Canadian government will never go bankrupt. It’s just gets cheap sometimes and needs to be reminded it only has 32 odd million people, lots of land and resources, clean water, and the United States as its big-boy pants. I like to stick my hand in my pants sometimes. That’s how I feel when I buy things from the great US market. (it feels awesome in case you were wondering)

    Canadians are really comfortable. Canada is literally the land of milk and honey. If you think otherwise you’re doing Canada wrong. I can’t put it any plainer. Below in the More section is an explanation to how your observations are merely bad consumer habits. Does not mean Canadians aren’t balling it up like its 1999.

    I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.

    Building a road is a non-issue. Maintaining a road is. Plowing it, salting it (with salt that is effective and doesn’t cause Chernobyl-level runoff), repaving (thanks plow rape), and doing that while ensuring the road remains open for organized traffic for great distances. You’re talking about year-round seasonal construction on certain stretches of roads. Highway 401 is considered the busiest in North America and has always been in some form of expansion, construction, improvement, or maintenance. The construction equipment are part of the highway.

    Even vaunted Shanghai had some disgusting roads. Sure, Pudong maintains a facade of being uber maintained but move out to Fudan university and you’ll start to wonder how hard is it really to keep all the roads decently maintained…. Especially in such a small area in an international city that can muster cheap labour/materials unhindered by snow or Environment Canada….

    So clearly it’s not as easy as everyone thinks it is (even though it is really easy).

    [MORE]

    Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge.

    Nearly torn apart, but not quite. You probably need new rear-shocks or you’re driving on bald tires.

    A bad consumer habit is the lack of proactive maintenance in regards to their automobile. Take care of your car and it will last longer than you. It’s made of metal. It can most assuredly live longer than humans.

    If the damage is significant enough and your insurance covers it file a claim. If the city is at fault everyone is a winner.

    By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Gullwing”, it will end up worth absolutely zero.

    Obviously. You don’t need to buy a brand new car to enjoy it. Everyone knows the value drops by 15% the second you sign the paper. So don’t buy a new car. Got it. 2015 Porsche Cayenne from the US for 14.5k second hand, great condition. Hands in my pants. A 2012 bmw 3 series locally for 7k that needed new coils ($150 cheap aftermarkets and works beautifully). Two half-decent cars that I can enjoy for summer and winter. Pop on Youtube and do your own service. What’s the problem? The alternative is to WASTE MY TIME sitting in public transportation? Then the argument is how much is your time worth?

    Anyway no need to bankrupt yourself to enjoy the fun things in life. Lack of research into alternatives is considered bad consumer habits. Unless you enjoy driving cars with worn out shocks.

    they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance!

    How many accidents have you been in to have high insurance? In my reckless 20s with a “a new driver MALE with a high risk sports car” and enough speeding tickets to be on first name basis with the local Provincial Offences office I wasn’t paying more than $1,200 annually for insurance. Did you run over a Korean family or something?

    I had a girlfriend the same time that drove a gay Yaris, she had no tickets and was paying $1,100 insurance because the car was a death trap. If your car is really old it does pay to get something newer for the insurance.

    Lack of consumer diligence is part of bad consumer habits.

    Have you tried BCAA? Probably give you a better deal if you group your house insurance with them too. Could be outdated info, but they were good to me.

    then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.

    Canadian ‘funny money’ is not a bug, it’s a feature. You are witnessing the mechanisms that protect us from being turned into a Mexico by the US.

    Do not confuse the serfs and plebs of Canada, imported or domestic, with those that actually RUN Canada, operate its businesses and produce its few decent products/fields.

    It’s not lost on Canadians that wealthy foreigners are willing to pay these ridiculous prices. It must mean it’s worth it because they love coming here. It’s why a shitty 300k home 15 years ago has surpassed the 1-million-dollar mark. Someone is paying for it which makes Canada happy, the banks happy, and the seller happy. I thought covid-19 was gonna crash the market. I literally pissed myself for no reason because the market didn’t even budge.

    If you made it this far and being a thread about China I’ll add my anecdotal experience in 2007, 2015 which gives me pause on this China-cock-suck-fest everyone has, I guess it pays to see things first hand:

    So to sum it up my primary experience is in Shanghai as I’ve been there multiple times over the course of a decade. Beijing only once. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou a handful of times for business, usually landing in Shanghai first anyway. A short stint through Shandong province. From the days of backpacking after high school (2006-7) to the regular business trips that have extended from 2011+. I can say Shanghai people are different from other Hans. Same with those that hail from Shandong province, who seem to be the REAL Chinese (legit niggas that project competence and confidence I rarely see in Asians).

    If you want to know how China operates just apply for a tourist visa and watch the shit they make you do and their impressive fetish with tiny little red ink stamps. A sampler of the nightmare complexity they like to add to the smallest irrelevant detail (yet missing entire points).

    In the summer of 2015 I was in Pudong and in need of a wicked piss. Being civilized I opted to look for a bathroom so I walked into one of those fancy buildings near the river within viewing distance of Pudong tower (aptly called “Office building” on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/GiMupzEiNmjz89ns6 ). I was expecting it to be like any normal downtown financial building. Go in, use the public bathroom, walk out….

    It was surreal, it was in the afternoon during working hours. I walk in and the lobby was dead empty. A layer of dust huddled in corners in the main lobby with the lights off. These weren’t cheap buildings, they had nice marble interiors, glass table for the non-existent security, in the heart of expensive real estate Pudong. No furniture though. Clearly money and effort went into erecting these buildings. The building wasn’t vacant. There were three suited gentlemen who individually at different times walked into or out of the elevators unphased by a round-eye holding his crotch standing like a retard in the middle of an empty lobby.

    I hesitantly continue forward until I find the bathroom only to discover the lights were off there as well. The water was shut off and it had a smell that didn’t befit the value of the marble and decor invested in the place. As if there was no building management to hire someone to maintain any of this shit. Typical. Build great things and forget the minor details to basically fall flat on your impact.

    Went to the adjacent building and it had similar conditions. After the third building I realized I would have to risk my anal virginity and pee in the darkness. I thought it was measures used to dissuade hobos sleeping in the bathroom but it’s China, uniformed soldiers regularly patrol and are diligent. I know this because I sat on the stairs of a Lawsons in Pudong trying to read a map and 2 minutes later was nudged by a uniformed soldier to move along (with a smile, no violence, no English either). No loitering I guess.

    I visited some spots in Shanghai in 2007 that were just finishing construction on rows of residential apartments. In 2015 visiting that same spot the vast majority of the buildings were still empty. Expats tell me that 5-6 people will roommate up and rent a single apartment. I don’t know if the Chinese government is unable to control rent rates or if people are really cheap or if its just better for a building to be vacant or if its a facade or this “construction industrial complex” or what.

    If I can find the 4×6 photo (yea I was taking pictures with a disposable Kodak camera at the time because it was 2007) I can upload it and the new one I took in 2015 with my phone to show how the buildings remain empty 8 years after construction. This isn’t some nothing empty neighbourhood either as a Carrefour at the intersection was always busy with shoppers.

    Just like Canadian funny money, Chinese have their own methods of maintaining facades.

    • Thanks: utu
  146. utu says:
    @kirksig

    “So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.” – There is something in their constitution that prevents them from making this step. While one may argue that there are sets of circumstances where individual actions produce best outcomes:

    It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. – Adam Smith

    Libertarians being mono-ideological in their indoctrination phase have never been exposed to cases where individual uncoordinated actions do not lead to an optimal solution or even can lead to the worst possible solution. Most libertarians, except for some guys in Silicon Valley do not have shit. They are not even butchers, brewers, or bakers. Most of them are working stiffs or unemployed who are angry with government. The ideology of libertarianism has no tangible advantage for them. They were indoctrinated into it to prevent them from actions requiring a concerted effort. They are the shield that protects the oligarchy. They are responsible for making life worse for everybody including themselves. Only the oligarchy benefits.

  147. @Znzn

    I am not so sure if China would be like Taiwan if KMT won. China at that time(late Qing and early post Qing) was a dying civilization, mired in poverty and dysfunctional. It’s a difficult country to govern throughout its entire history. So much of civil wars, divisions into many states and warlodisms, national(and even civilizational) collapse and rebirth. I am unsure if KMT and democracy could have held a country together. Democracy has a tendency to cause even more chaos in a huge country mired in poverty and all kinds of calamities. This is not a mark of approval of Communist China or Mao on my part. They and Mao committed their brand of atrocities. Not to justify atrocities but which regimes in Chinese history never committed atrocities and wars to attain national reunification? Like it or not, the CPC managed to hold the country together. I think the Chinese people had had enough of suffering, unrest and national instability during the death throes of the last dynasty and at the peak of European power in the 19th century and later the instabilities of republican China.
    In the end, most Chinese people just want peace, stability, prosperity – past Tang capital Chang an means everlasting peace. Words like Tai Ping(great peace), ping an(peace) resonates well with Chinese psyche. Hope I translated properly, as I don’t speak Mandarin. They are pragmatic in thinking, even Idealism should be subsumed by this pragmatism. That’s why despite its many many faults, the current CPC Govt in China is supported(but maybe secretly criticized for their faults) by the Chinese population.

  148. AaronB says:
    @mal

    In an age of automation, most of the economy is in some sense make believe.

    Using credit to create the consumer is a necessary measure when machines do most of our work. This is to be celebrated, not deplored.

    Just, most people have not caught up to where we actually are, and are fighting the last war. There is always a lag time. Its amusing to see this intense discussion revolve around factories.

    • Agree: mal
  149. Dmitry says:
    @Sinotibetan

    I’m not saying public who use the internet, are accessing more reliable information than they did from television before. For many people, they are probably more misinformed now, than ever before the internet was invented.

    My point is just that the changeover of people from receiving access to “national life” from television, to the internet, is the main reason for the demoralization and deglamorization in how they view their country.

    But I think there was something unhealthy with the beautification of the national realities, provided by television. For example, even if you will watch the news to see a report about a tragedy, you are invariably distracted by the fact it is presented by a beautiful woman, with a clear voice and perfect intonation

    Generally, the television is supporting the powers, and gives the impression regardless of reality: “don’t worry, everything is in control, things are improving, trust us”.

    Naturally, people don’t know much beyond what is happening in their area of the city where they live. People’s sense of large topics, like “national decline”, relates not only to their personal experience, but also the mode and type of media they consume.

    If I can provide example of a New York television report of 1990.

    Objectively, New York was far more criminal and dangerous in 1990, than it is today. But in the example of 1990 television, there is such a happy, charming and poetic man, to present this negative information for us. (Rather than charmless doom we would read on the internet today).

    So even in the 1990 America television report about very negative topics, there is a charming presenter, and his sense of positivity and optimism affects how you receive the topic. For the presenter, the crime of New York seems picturesque and almost literary, and his charisma brings the viewer into this perspective.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  150. @Dmitry

    Point taken with thanks. Agree.

  151. @Pericles

    There is fatalism in Taiwan about reunification. The younger generation does not want to fight for independence. So it will happen in the long term.

  152. There isn’t discussion about one of the main elements to making the right prediction. Will the yuan appreciate against the dollar over the next 30 years? This is an element that has tripped up other predictions.

    At the end of 2011, the Economist actually predicted Chinese nominal GDP would exceed US GDP in 2018. Here is their math:

    Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021.

    The Economist would have been on target within 1-2 trillion dollars, but the yuan did not appreciate as expected against the dollar in the 2010s. The yuan was about 6.3 at the end of 2011 and is 6.6 today.

    What will happen in the next 30 years? The Economist’s finance team has a recent take that it is not clear if the yuan is being suppressed or if it is being suppressed it is only a temporary measure.

    China also has many tools for influencing the exchange rate beyond direct intervention. On October 12th the central bank made it cheaper to short the yuan in forward trades, a signal that it wanted to limit appreciation. Then on October 23rd a currency regulator said that a “smart market” would always consider upside and downside risks, a reminder that China wants the yuan to be volatile but within a fairly tight range. “Chinese officials have perfected the game of telling American officials that they are not intervening while persuading market participants that they will intervene if necessary,” says Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, who also advises Joe Biden’s team.

    If China is intervening, the most charitable defence is that it views its big lead in gdp growth as transient. A big jump in the yuan when other countries are hobbled would set it up for a potentially destabilising fall when they recover. Leaning against appreciation helps prevent that. But if China’s outperformance endures without being reflected in the yuan, charitable feelings will quickly evaporate.

    For my own prediction of Chinese GDP at 175% of US GDP in 2040, I am conservatively counting by then on only a 10% currency appreciation bump from the exchange rate in 2019 (6.9 to 6.2 yuan to the dollar)

    For reference, the South Korean won has actually depreciated a lot since 1990.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @blatnoi
    , @showmethereal
  153. @Blinky Bill

    Hong Kong, Thailand, Portland.

    One struggle (of people with bizarre physiognomy)

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
  154. I’ve noticed that when people talk about perceived Russian, German or Chinese war crimes/massacres, they beat around the bush about it. They say oh that was the “Nazis, Communists, Maoists”, etc. Few ever say “the Germans did that”, or “the Russians did that”, it’s always the “Nazis” or the “Soviets”, etc.

    Whereas if they’re talking about perceived British war crimes/massacres, they usually just say “That was the British/English”.

    In fact even when talking about Japanese war crimes most refer to it as “Imperial Japan” and usually keep referencing the Emperor in an attempt to put distance between Japan’s war crimes and the average Japanese person.

    In the case of Russia, Germany and China, this is done to remove culpability from the average person in those countries, whereas no such consideration is made for Britain, the implication is usually that all British/English people are equally culpable for perceived crimes committed by the British Empire, from the working classes to the aristocracy. There’s no beating around the bush about who was responsible. I find the mentality difference there quite interesting.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    , @reiner Tor
  155. @Europe Europa

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don’t think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

  156. @Sinotibetan

    Moreover, Chinese, British, Germans, Dutch, French, Japanese, Russians (list not exhaustive) committed atrocities at different phases of their history. Politics =shades of Grey, some lighter, some darker.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  157. @Kent Nationalist

    [MORE]

    Mother Nature Protests!

    • LOL: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  158. @Sinotibetan

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for “the Nazis“, but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

  159. blatnoi says:
    @Sinotibetan

    Agree, just don’t comment enough to have the agree button active. This is why I left the US, though to be fair, it was an unconscious series of thoughts that I couldn’t formulate that well at the time, but that turned into the way I think now, that is also reflected in your comment.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
  160. @128

    I am pretty sure you can get penalised in China for “spreading rumours” online. I am guessing a Chinese version of Unz Review would not last long.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
  161. blatnoi says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    This is an important point, and why I feel the bet would have been more ‘fair’ if it was PPP GDP of 3x vs. the US instead of 2x nominal. The PPP conversion factor should also decrease in the future from it’s current high level as China develops more. It makes for an interesting factor.

    About ten years ago the yen appreciated to 80 yen against the dollar and the Japanese government thought it was a disaster and embarked on a program to knock it down to 120. They succeeded, but now have a real hard time to keep it below 110, and even 105 now. It’s not as if Japan suddenly became 3x weaker in the span of a year, after the yen fell to 120 to the dollar and it’s GDP ‘collapsed’. To many Japanese who never leave the country this was not really noticeable, but maybe the price of instant noodles from Korea went up by 10 yen. Inflation failed to take hold overall and Hyundai cars are still the cheapest for some reason. The US is okay with this type of currency manipulation from Japan and Korea, because they are geopolitical allies. This will not be the case for China, so it will not be as easy for them to devaluate to make exports more attractive, and there will be bitter negotiations/sanctions over devaluations and money printing from both sides.

  162. @Europe Europa

    Usually they try and equate the crimes of the British Empire with the crimes of Nazi Germany. However you are not correct in saying the Empire doesn’t have its defenders. There are many in the mainstream like Niall Ferguson.

    It remains to be seen whether or not the British Empire will be seen with the same revulsion as Nazi Germany in the near future, there certainly is an interest lobby which wants this to happen, but for the time being this is not the case.

  163. @Europe Europa

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

  164. Rahan says:
    @Wency

    Before the Western culture went into living death mode, and still had some vigor, and thus pop and rock music evolved continuously, Germany was a world center for heavy metal. For about two decades (say 1980 – 2000) German heavy metal was more than equal to the US/UK strains. Oldfags remember this curious phenomenon.

    But that’s it. I also assembled a collection of modern Euro films back in 2019, to keep up. The French and Italian flics were as blandly good as always, but the German films were astoundingly boring. I think that post-WWII the “strong gods” were banned there all all levels in terms of spiritual experience, out of fear that strong emotions lead to Hitler returning.
    https://counter-currents.com/2020/01/r-r-renos-return-of-the-strong-gods/
    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/10/21/return-of-the-strong-gods/
    https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2019/11/return-of-the-strong-gods-rr-reno-dwight-longenecker.html

    And only in the metal music underground was there a mostly uncontrolled space where the surviving vigor could leak into.

    But then by the late 1990s pop culture stopped evolving everywhere, not just Germany, and then devolving. Maybe we’re about to see some revival, if the Great Reset does not go by plan.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
  165. @Kent Nationalist

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

    Indeed, although predictably, it’s the Labour and Remainer cucks who dislike the Empire

    [MORE]


  166. Lot says:
    @Anon

    “IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests”

    I am not saying that, so you don’t need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That’s why this isn’t a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you’re going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    • Agree: AaronB
  167. @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    • Replies: @last straw
    , @last straw
  168. Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I’ve already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.

    There’s no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It’s true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn’t follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India’s decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn’t the only place to scoop up talent.

    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.

    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn’t just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden’s transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they’d be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.

    A few words about Taiwan. It’s income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China’s current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That’s why Taiwan isn’t a suitable aim for China. You can’t get away with their policies unless you’re a tiny gnat – while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.

    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn’t on the table here. It’s about what it says about China’s domestic economy.

    Some China ‘bulls’ claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That’s confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China’s leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China’s economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn’t because Wen was lying or was insincere. It’s simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn’t they succeed doing so in the future?

    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It’s not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their “barely above Mexico” current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

  169. @Sinotibetan

    Simply because the British have the same ideology and political structures then as now. Or at least a continuation of them. What would you use to use the equivalent of Communist, or Maoist? Victorian maybe. I’ve seen British presenters do that “The Victorians massacred hundreds of thousands of Indians… it was in keeping with Victorian attitudes on race” etc.

    However the problem there is that these attitudes outdated the Victorians.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
  170. Global-Economic-centre-of-gravity

    Centre of Extreme poverty

  171. 128 says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Well, the counterargument is that they are a semi-command economy, they do not have to recognize losses or write down bad investments if they do not want to, so they can put off writing down their GDP or their capital stock indefinitely, unlike market economies.

    • Agree: mal
  172. A123 says:
    @Lot

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    There are good IQ evaluations that eliminate this bias, however they are not mass market fill in the dot standardized tests. It takes 1-on-1 contact.

    I have a free standing memory from when I was about 6 years old from such an evaluation. The session was, “What is wrong with this picture?”

    One of the cards was an umbrella and my response was, “There is nothing inside holding it open.” I did not have the terminology at the time but the stretchers, runner, and locking mechanism were all missing. The person administering the test looked at me, turned around the card looked at it, looked at me again, and then began scribbling free hand notes on my file.

    I must have scored well, because I was admitted to the gifted/advanced track at my Elementary School.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

  173. Passer by says:

    Here is the estimate used by the US National Intelligence Council –

    A long term decline for the US and the EU, decline for China after 2070, a long term rise for India and Africa.

    View post on imgur.com

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    , @mal
  174. 128 says:
    @Thulean Friend

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies. And as for the US per capita GDP growth, it actually picked up from around 1% during the Obama years to more than 1.5% during the Trump years, with a couple of years of 3% GDP growth due to the Trump tax cuts, if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

  175. 128 says:

    But obviously, I am not including the possibility of the US descending into Syria, Lybia, or Somalia in my assumptions, though China would also lose a sizable customer and world trade would be seriously undermined in the US were to turn into Syria in the next few years or so. It is just in the past few years, any revisions of US economic growth assumptions have tended to be on the upside, rather than on the downside.

  176. @Passer by

    ”””””””””Intelligence”””””””””

  177. @Rahan

    Not convinced. Offhand I can think of downfall, The Lives of Others, Das Boot and the excellent Dark and Deutschland 83. The latter two are on Netflix and Amazon right now.

    I don’t search out subtitled movies or TV shows but these were recommended.

    • Thanks: Rahan
  178. @128

    if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    If my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle.

    (Well, not so much these days but you get the idea.)

  179. songbird says:
    @Lot

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents

    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states

    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don’t find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

  180. @Lot

    Very interesting. As a person of Chinese descent, I have often wondered why Europeans /people of European descent were/are more innovative(than Asians, even other non European ethnic groups) , especially in mathematics, the basic sciences and technological inventions. I don’t think the majority of whites are innovative, but those who do really excell. A civilization just needs a significant minority of excellent innovators to have the edge over others. Why is it that a civilization much older than Western countries stagnated in science, maths and technology for millennia.
    I think there are certain traits needed to be innovative….apart from excellent memory:intuitive and deductive abilities, a healthy dose of curiosity, idealistic personality, adventurous and daring spirit(to think of new ideas) and wanting to be original, unique and different. Never mind if the idea may not seem to have ‘practical value’ initially.
    This spirit of innovation is what I admire in whites /Europeans sorely lacking in my country, and perhaps that could be extrapolated to China (or Korea or Japan) as well. I had friends who had ‘photographic memory'(the Chinese are good at this, a friend who spoke and wrote broken English could write, from memory, whole paragraphs or oven chapters from a book on human anatomy) and always scored top marks in exams – they know the ‘game of exams’. They can do a job or take a course, not because they have any liking for the job or subject, but just because they can have higher incomes. They are pragmatic people – knowledge or any idea is just a means to get rich or attain higher status in society. If a certain knowledge or idea is deemed to have no (known) practical value, none would be interested. And Asian parents also instill in their children such attitude. At least, that’s how I remembered my childhood – how my parents tried to ‘break’ my idealistic streak since I liked to think of new ideas in chemistry or maths, or tried to compose baroque style music etc.. They ultimately partially succeeded in killing off all the Idealism . I think there is something cultural to this conformist trait.
    Another reason why I think China will not be a superpower or significant innovator nation – unless there is a change in this type of mentality that I mentioned.

  181. Mr. Hack says:
    @Max Payne

    Why not compare the roads of Colossal Canada with those of Eurasian Russia, instead of with “puny Ukraine”? Outside of Moscow ad St. Pete’s, this is pretty much what the majority of the roads look like. Again, it looks like Little Russia and Big Russia have more in common that either has with Canada:

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @mal
  182. @songbird

    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan

    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    • Replies: @BS
    , @Daniel Chieh
    , @songbird
  183. @128

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies.

    This is because Uncle Sam runs the system and is willing to tolerate stratospheric savings rates, often manipulated exchange rates, and outright protectionism to shield domestic businessess.

    The entry ticket price is political submission to US’ core geopolitcal interests. No free lunches. China was given the benefit of the doubt early on, but that benefit has been revoked, possibly permanently as long as CCP controls the country.

    If you suppress your domestic demand you need to supplement with an external source. That path is now closed for China. As mentioned in the OP, China still needs the demand of the developed world given their low incomes. Since China cannot rely on this path, it has no other option than to gorge on debt in lieu of what the Taiwanese, Koreans et al did, namely rely on external demand.

    The debt explosion at much lower incomes means rapid zombiefication and the attendant cost of decaying efficiency of capital with massive overinvestment.

    Add to this the domestic challenge I mentioned, the incapability of rebalancing due to various powerful constituencies blocking genuine reform. This isn’t doom, but it sufficient to prevent China from being a nodal power á la USA post-1945. They will still converge for 10-15 years at least, but beyond that, it will become a huge challenge.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
  184. @songbird

    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians. I have friends who are very smart but they are not innovative, they are not passionate about new ideas. I don’t know how to describe it…. There is not enough curiosity, less passionate about ‘knowledge for knowledge’ sake’?
    I have friends who scored and became top students in mathematics but years later they cannot even handle college algebra!
    When I teach some of my students and tried to instill some passion in the subject matter, they are more interested about what are the stuff they need to ‘score’ in the exams.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Dmitry
  185. BS says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    The Chinese might be the only non-European nation with the distinction of successfully colonizing and subsequently genociding a West European population.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  186. @Kent Nationalist

    China obviously knocked out innumerable small nations and tribes to get to its size, but Taiwan is a good example why decentralization is important for expansion. Until there was a random “Ming” warlord trying to make a base outside of China, conquering it was pointless.

  187. @Thulean Friend

    Your analysis is dubious. China is still trading with Europe and Asia. It’s just created a new trading block with its neighbours and has created an investment pact with the EU. Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    Average per capita is at $10k, but incomes are bi-modal. There’s a lot of rural poor and a large middle and wealthy class.

    According to CNN (2019).

    A new report from Credit Suisse (CS) shows that wealth in China is ticking up, and the country now accounts for 100 million of the richest 10% of people in the world. There are 99 million Americans in the same category.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  188. @BS

    Who are you referring to, the Tocharians? They’re the only ethnically Western European group I can think of that has existed in the vicinity of China.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  189. EldnahYm says:
    @Lot

    Now explain why northeast Asians have higher cranial capacity than whites.

    You would make more sense if you simply argued that whites outperform northeast Asians on “inventing things” and “conquering other continents” because of non-intelligence personality factors. But instead, you must argue that test scores are the result of non-intelligence personality factors and that whites are actually smarter than northeast Asians. Dumb.

  190. @Europe Europa

    He’s referring to the Dutch colonists, though arguably they were merged into the population. Red hair, etc exists now in the Taiwanese population.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @BS
  191. @Lot

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    According to Davide Piffer, the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.

    White gentiles are the most underrepresented group at Harvard, Yale, etc., so according to your logic, these IQ tests overstate White gentile intelligence the most, and this is the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    • Replies: @Lot
  192. Lot says:
    @snooker player

    “ the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.”

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.

    “so according to your logic”

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    • Replies: @snooker player
    , @KA
    , @Barr
  193. @Daniel Chieh

    Red hair was in Taiwan before the Europeans arrived and comes from the Taiwanese natives — there’s no European ancestry in Taiwan and certainly not enough to make red hair a thing there. It’s a Neanderthal-related variant of MC1R, not related to the one found in modern Europeans, and is found at highest frequencies (~75%) in Taiwanese aboriginals.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263015244_Neanderthal_Origin_of_the_Haplotypes_Carrying_the_Functional_Variant_Val92Met_in_the_MC1R_in_Modern_Humans

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  194. BS says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    So successful that even a fellow with the handle “Europe Europa” doesn’t even know about it! Don’t know how common red hair actually is in Taiwan, I was under the impression that apart from the occasionally nordsinid KMT-descended ruling class, they were all swarthy 5’1 Hoklos.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  195. @songbird

    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    You have no idea what you’re talking about.

    The Japanese were subdued and are still ruled to this day by the Ainu. All emporers of Japanese history carry the Ainu haplogroup D1:

    https://peaceandjustice.freeforums.net/thread/852/japanese-emperors-dna-haplogroup-d1b1a2

    A plurality of Japanese males today descend from Ainu men and non-Ainu East Asian women, the Ainu populations that never switched over to Japanese also all descend from Japanese women.

    This idea of Ainu as some sort of “conquered” group that has developed over the years, and become especially popular on anonymous message boards, has been totally annihilated by the genetic and archaelogical evidence. It is just another folklorish fabrication of history by simpletons that ignores the glaring and obvious fact that Japan is a layered mixed-race society with an Ainu ruling elite. Any oppression of Ainu in later times was minimal and done by people who were part Ainu themselves.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Sinotibetan
  196. @BS

    I mean, there were plenty of Chinese under Koxinga before Lord Chiang brought his people(and my ancestors) there.

  197. @JohnPlywood

    You are incorrect, though that’s nothing new.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa#Dutch

    Some Dutch physical characteristics such as auburn and red hair among people in regions of south Taiwan are a consequence of this episode of Dutch women becoming concubines to the Chinese commanders. The Dutch women who were taken as slave concubines and wives were never freed. In 1684 some were reported to be living in captivity. A Dutch merchant in Quemoy was contacted with an arrangement, proposed by a son of Koxinga’s, to release the prisoners, but it came to nothing.

    Being something which I have a little bit of real personal experience with, several of my father’s classmates had red hair from Dutch ancestry.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  198. @JohnPlywood

    til I learned that Japanese emperors have mouth tattoos and worship bears through ritual sacrifice.

    Oh wait, as usual, you have no clue what you’re talking about.

    For others who are actually interested in the Ainu, who had rather unusual and interesting rituals:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iomante

    After the cub reaches one or two years of age, they release it from the cell and place it in the center of the village, where it is tied to a post with a rope. The males in the village then take shots at the cub with bows and arrows. Even at the age of two years, the brown bears are quite large, and it usually takes numerous shots before they fall. After the bear has been weakened from numerous arrow strikes and is too weak to defend itself, one villager will approach the bear and shoot it in the neck point-blank, to ensure that it is dead. The villagers then slit the bear’s throat and drink the blood. The bear is skinned, and the meat is distributed amongst the villagers. Its bare skull is placed on a spear, which is then rewrapped with the bear’s own fur. This “doll” is an object of worship for the villagers. The bear has now been “sent off” to the world of the gods.

    https://www.tota.world/article/127/

    That the Ainu women tattoo their lips and arms, and in some districts their foreheads also, has been reported often. The men, however, never tattoo themselves. It is an absurd habit! and does not add to the beauty of the people. Nor have I yet been able to get any simple, direct, and sensible reason as to how the custom arose, or why it is kept up. The tattoo is of a bluish-black colour, and the process of getting it in is both simple and painful.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
  199. @mal

    Plumbers are better if they have high IQs. Sure, constructing a building doesn’t require great skills but finding the fault and fixing can while runing your own business.

    • Replies: @mal
    , @showmethereal
    , @Wency
  200. @Daniel Chieh

    Yeah, they don’t have lip tats… But they do have the variant of the Y-DNA haplogroup D1 that is indigenous to the Japanese archipelago, and found at 80% frequency in the Ainu. Which is what I said. Dumbass.

    Meaning that, since the iron age onward, the ruling class of Japan has been of Ainu male + Yayoi female origin. I also noticed that Ainu male haplotypes are the most common in Japanese males but that female haplotypes are nearly absent, including among the Ainu themselves. Shine my shoes.

  201. mal says:
    @Philip Owen

    You don’t want a really smart plumber or any other contractor – he will outsmart you and charge you more money, and you won’t even know whats happening. 🙂

  202. @Zhang Shoucheng

    I can’t speak for Ukraine but I can observe that in Russia, the 15% of people with their own businesses or professioanl jobs seem to live as well or better than in the UK or indeed, Hongcouver although most of my acquaintance is with Burnaby. That said, the top third of the business/professional class in the UK/Canada probably live better than the Russians. There are fewer Russian hanging on to their parents’ fading businesses. That said, public investment and services in Russia are appallingly bad compared to the UK, below even US levels.

  203. @utu

    It rains in the UK. Shoes need to be sturdy and watertight. Maybe Russian boots don’t count as shoes.

  204. mal says:
    @Mr. Hack

    90% of Canada lives within like 100 miles of US border. Where Russia has at least bad roads Canada has none on the account of nobody living at those latitudes. If you want to go Caribou hunting in Canada you need to take an airplane. In Russia a 4X4 will probably get you where you need to be if the season is right, even far north.

    So I don’t think Canada and Russia are directly comparable – Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    • Replies: @Rahan
  205. mal says:
    @Passer by

    Demographics = consumer = GDP in the long run.

  206. @Lot

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.

    See Piffer’s recent comments. Most of the higher IQ variants from the European GWAS are also present among blacks. About 25% of the SNPs are estimated to be from outside of Africa. And whether you use older or newer SNPs, the difference between blacks and whites remains similar:

    https://wildtype.home.blog/2019/11/01/a-reply-to-the-big-four/

    When they are computed using ancient or recent SNPs, polygenic scores exhibit a very similar difference between West Africans (Yorubans) and Europans (White Americans).

    In summary, we can refute the authors’ claim that there are no IQ/EDU-increasing alleles that are unique to non Africans. In fact, 25% of the SNPs probably originated after the the out of Africa exodus. However, the presence of population-specific alleles is not required to make some populations smarter than others. Selection can act on standing variation – that is, alleles that existed in a population before an environmental change causing selection pressure took place – , and produce allele frequency shifts at ancient SNPs that are shared across continental groups (Lee & Coop, 2017).

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    Your logic is that representation levels at Harvard et al are determined by IQ. This is obviously untrue. You could find higher IQ non-black students to replace black Harvard even after handicapping the black students extra IQ points. And why would it be true? IQ has never been the sole criterion for admissions. There are other criteria and social mission aims that determine admissions.

  207. @AlexanderGrozny

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That’s the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the future auto industry when conventional vehicle with internal combustion engines are phased out, China also have some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD.

    Nio’s ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet’s Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized internationally.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/

  208. @Daniel Chieh

    Except there is nothing in that quote that proves red hair is from Europeans (just a dumb historian’s sumise), against the scientific proof that Taiwanese aboriginals carry a Neanderthal MC1R variant associated with red hair, at a frequency of ~75%.

    Let’s be honest, Daniel… You just read the stupid Wiki article, took it for granted, and are now doubling down on your stupidity and making shit up. Which is, of course, wholly expected.

    Let me know when you find a single genetic study describing European admixture in Taiwanese Chinese. I have yet to see one. I know of several describing Taiwanese aboriginal admixture, here’s the most recent one:

    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/5955855

    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/34128973/msaa276.pdf

    Admixed genetic ancestries of the Taiwanese Han

    Population-specific genetic diversity accumulated along human migration trajectories could shape the genetic  basis of diseases differently among populations (Chen et al. 2012; Corona et al. 2013; Wall et al. 2020).  Although the genetic structure of the Han people in China has been investigated extensively in recent years  (Wen et al. 2004; Xue et al. 2008; Chen et al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009; Zhao et al. 2015; Chiang et al. 2018),  studies focusing on genetic ancestry of the Han populations outside of China and the level of admixture with  other ethnic groups, particularly on the island of Taiwan, are limited (Chen et al. 2016).

    In the present study,  we first characterized the genetic ancestry of individual genomes and identified four major ancestries as well  as subtle genetic structure within the Taiwanese Han. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chen et al.  (2016), who utilized a smaller number of populations to identify four major ancestries and suggested that 80%  of Taiwanese Han people are genetically closer to the Southern Han Chinese than to the Northern Han Chinese.  However, the geographic patterns of these ancestries were not thoroughly discussed in their analysis.

    While our inferred pattern of ancestries is also in good agreement with the previous studies that analyzed the  Pan-Asia and HGDP datasets separately (Li et al. 2008; Abdulla et al. 2009), by analyzing the combined data,  we were able to gain a better overview of the geographic distributions of these ancestries; consequently, they  can be referred to as the Southeastern (blue), Northern (yellow), Island Southeast Asian (ISEA; pink), and  Japonic (green) ancestries. Notably, we identified considerable proportions of ISEA ancestry (also carried by  many Austronesian-speaking populations in high proportions) in most individuals of Taiwanese Han (average  15%, range 0.1% – 62%). The mixed ancestries observed in the Taiwanese Han could be attributed to either  population mixture or shared ancestry before the divergence of descendent populations. We therefore applied  the F3 tests to detect signatures of population mixture. Consequently, our results showed that the ISEA  ancestry in the Taiwanese Han was the outcome of population mixtures rather than shared ancestry, and the  admixture event likely occurred before the Taiwanese Han ancestors migrated to Taiwan (fig. 2A).

    If the  admixture occurred only after the Han people migrated to Taiwan, then the observed results would only be  seen in the Taiwanese Han. However, similar F3 outcomes were found in the Chinese Han (supplementary fig.  S2, Supplementary Material online), supporting that admixture occurred prior to migration to Taiwan.  Moreover, signatures of population admixture were also detected between the ancestors of Taiwanese Han and  the Ami Austronesian-speaking population using the F4 test; significant positive F4 values were observed  when most Sino-Tibetan speaking populations were individually included in the analysis, except for the  Chinese Singapore and Chinese Cantonese (Table 1). These two populations appear to be genetically closest to  the Taiwanese Han among all other Sino-Tibetan speaking populations (fig. 1B), which is consistent with the  hypothesis of population mixture before the ancestors of Taiwanese Han migrated to Taiwan.

    There is no European ancestry in Taiwan; certainly not enough for your father to be having “several” classmates with modern European-specific red hair genes. Western Europeans will have about 2/100 classmates with red hair. The idea that European red hair genes are surviving in a 99% black haired population, with no European ancestral component to speak of, is laughable.

    On the other hand, the MC1R variant most common in Taiwan could conceivably cause reddish hair in rare cases — possibly high enough to give maybe a 1/1000 rate of reddish hair in Taiwanese with Atayal-like admixture.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  209. @songbird

    The average iq in the UK is not projected to be 85 by 2100. Look up the Flynn effect. The UK average iq will probably be at least 110 by 2100.

    • Troll: songbird
  210. mal says:
    @Thulean Friend

    If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they’d be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.

    Virgin 160 IQ Chinese engineer vs Chad 80 IQ Woke Transgender African-American Lesbian Corporate Human Resources Lady. This will be a fun job interview to watch. 🙂

    More seriously though, you are right. Chinese smarts will come. And then they will transfer all those advanced technology back home to their friends and relatives. It may take IQ 160 in US to develop tech breakthrough, but IQ 120 back in China will be sufficient to successfully deploy it in production.

    You are quite correct in what you say, but your worldview is a bit incomplete. Цап царап (Russian for sneaky grab) will be a big thing in the future.

  211. Mr. Hack says:
    @mal

    In addition to improving train transportation tracks and trains themselves, Ukraine is not standing still and is improving roads too, as evidenced by a $2billion new “ring highway system” around Kyiv itself (started in 2018). There’s always room for improvement, but it’s unfair to criticize Ukraine for poor roads when there’s plenty of them in other countries in the same neck of the woods.


    Kyiv already has pretty decent roads and is improving them all of the time. It’s time to pick up the pace elsewhere too.

    • Agree: mal
  212. songbird says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    There were probably some political factors at play. I think a lot of people have trouble understanding how big China was, and how difficult it was to rule a country that big, before industrialization. In 1600, China had a population of about 160 million – no railroads, no telegraph. The empire was unwieldy. The emperors were not seeking overseas colonies, possibly since they saw any new conquest might lead to the formation of new centers of power to disrupt their kingdom – new warlords, or pirate fleets.

    By contrast, in 1600, the Dutch Republic had a population of about 1.5 million. That’s about 1/106th of the population of China – much easier to rule. So compact that, today, about half of their territory was reclaimed from the sea.

    Nobody disputes that the Age of Exploration was a supreme European accomplishment, but it seems rather silly to count the separate conquests during this era, as thought they were separate ages that proved Europeans are inherently better at conquest, and not that they were supreme during this single era, which expired. The Vikings landed in North America – they did not conquer it – because they were not part of this era.

    The Dutch themselves were defeated or driven off more than once by the Chinese, before they took over Taiwan. They were driven off at Penghu, and defeated by the Ming navy off Liaoluo Bay. So, I’m not sure that one can say that they were militarily superior. And, of course, the Chinese were on Taiwan before the Dutch, who recorded the presence of about 1500, when they arrived.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
  213. songbird says:
    @Sinotibetan

    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians.

    I think it is possible that Europeans might be a bit dumber on average, but have more geniuses at the high end. But I am agnostic about it. If it is true – we are rapidly losing this advantage due to dysgenics.

    Japanese seem more refined to me, and I wonder why this is so. Maybe, that is the extra few IQ points? Or maybe it is different personality factors? Or maybe, Europeans have been brought down by diversity – that they’ve been influenced by MENA people to lower standards of behavior? Whatever the explanation is, I think it is something real and observable.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  214. @AlexanderGrozny

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That’s the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the auto industry, they know that conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines will be phased out in the next 20-30 years, that’s when these Chinese EV makers will be truly well known internationally. China also has some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD. Again, only industry insiders know the names such as CATL for now.

    Nio’s ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet’s Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized on the world stage somewhat.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/

  215. @JohnPlywood

    The burn of being wrong really does sting on you. I’m entertained.

    I suggest reading Lost Colony by Tonio Andrade for more information, though of course, you’re just a troll. And right now, a frustrated troll because you know as well as any other, the Dutch population didn’t vanish like taffy just because they lost ownership.

    That said, I think that’s enough time spent on you for entertainment factor(and for others to chuckle at you for).

  216. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow.

    What you are saying is that you think it would be a strategic advantage for the US over China, if in the future, it had more Barack Obamas and Kamala Harrises. And they were probably the children of moderately intelligent people. The standards have fallen, in the decades since then.

    The US is a blank-slatist regime, with arguably the biggest education bubble in the world. Giving visas for people who obtain degrees, from degree mills, is just a way of laundering their stupidity, and low human capital, and of propping up this credentialist bubble, to make the middle class poorer and less fertile.

  217. Smith says:

    Regarding modern images, I think the thing that holds back China’s image is their lack of cultural exports, their modern movies seem to suck compared to the old ones, especially the 00s movies and TV series, and nowadays it’s all beautiful dudes fighting with swords and shit. But they have the infrastructure and foundation to completely change this.

    Japan has an edge with cultural exports but it’s now slowing down because of outdated business models and their cucking to american/western liberals. As chinese get more patriotic/nationalist in defending their culture everywhere they go, japanese gets told to sit down and respect “black culture” in Japan by afro-americans, of course, this is related to the fact their government is America’s vassal.

    Technology-wise, both are trying hard to one-up each other, and China definitely has the edge on the sheer scale alone.

    Japan has much bigger problems going ahead, and they will continue to do so, as long as they still focus westward. They were right in modernizing back in the 19th century, now they are wrong in still believing da West is da best in the 21st century. The East/Asia is the future, at least for now.

  218. Dmitry says:
    @Sinotibetan

    Here is very much on the “software” level, rather than relating to “hardware”.

    In Renaissance Florence, there was a genius living on every street. However, in 21st century Florence, there is no genius on any street. It’s not because of a genetic shift, but a different stage of history and culture. Renaissance Florence was producing geniuses, while modern Florence’s population is culturally sterile. Classical Athens had the greatest flourishing of genius in world history, but yet modern Greece is one of the world’s least intellectually interesting cultures.

    There’s not a genetic explanation for this, although blood can be one of many influences.

    If you look at works of an individual genius, they often exhibit the best qualities of their culture at that particular historical epoch. Genius of Hume – it’s of the empirical and skeptical 18th century personality, representative of his Scottish Enlightenment milieu. Genius of Kant – includes adding a German pedantry and thoroughness to the scepticism of earlier thinkers like Hume. They wouldn’t be the same writers in a different epoch/culture.

    Asians are a little smarter than European

    It depends which Asian nationalities and which European ones.

    Obviously Japan is already at the similar level as the advanced North-West European countries, in terms of the average education and culture level of the population.

    • Agree: utu
    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
  219. 128 says:
    @Dmitry

    The Sinosphere (China, Korea, and Tokugawa Japan) would have been just fine if the West had left them alone in the mid-19th century.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Smith
  220. @Eugene Norman

    The fact that it is “still trading” is an irrelevant point. All countries are trading.
    RCEP is a welcome step but as I noted previously, it lacks a big deficit country since most of the countries in there are surplus ones.

    Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    This is completely bonkers. China has *increased* its trade surplus despite the world going into a depression. That’s the exact opposite of “supplying demand”. And it shows you how China’s economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don’t even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.

    • Replies: @Astarte
    , @Eugene Norman
  221. Smith says:
    @128

    No, they wouldn’t.

    Isolationism has been proven to never once work.

    Qing China grows weaker as they isolate, same for Tokugawa Japan.

    The USSR, despite having a high population and the most resources in the world, still fell because it was isolated from the world’s economy.

    Nowadays China has realized this idea, which is why their need to integrate into the world capitalist system and having as many allies as possible.

    No man, no country is an island, we must adapt as the world changes.

  222. @Voltarde

    Ahhhh – you are one of the few on Unz that gets it. PR of China’s main model was not the US – nor was it Japan – nor Hong Kong – nor Taiwan – it was and is Singapore. Yes it learned from all the aforementioned – but it’s main model is Singapore.

  223. @AP

    No – China wants to a larger version of Singapore – not “Taiwan”. If that was the case they would have unified already. Taiwan is too liberal and there is too much political folly. They prefer the order and conservatism of Singapore.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @128
    , @AP
  224. @JohnPlywood

    What Songbird said about the Japanese subduing the Ainu is correct and what you said about the Japanese being mixed race(admixture of Yayoi = continental East Asian + Jomon = ancestors of Ainu) is also correct.
    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned). The rest are haplogroups commonly found in continental East Asians (likely Yayoi origin). The Japanese language is totally different from Ainu language(now said to be moribund and near extinction) and is likely brought by Yayoi migrants, or some form of language derived from Yayoi with Jomon substratum. What I am saying is that, the Japanese became a separate ethnic group with the blend of Yayoi and Jomon whereas the Jomons who did not admix with Yayoi became separate peoples called the Ainu.
    As to whether the Jomon during Japanese ethnogenesis subdued the Yayoi or vice versa, who knows? I am more inclined to think that the Yayoi migration(rather than invasion) was a rather gradual and ‘peaceful’ one, leading to intermarriages between local Jomon and migrant Yayoi and since the local chieftains would likely be Jomon, finally gave rise to the Japanese, with substantial Haplogroup D1 male ancestry and logically more in the elites(one local chieftain became emperor and sired many other aristocratic daimyo and warrior samurai, other local chieftains also evolved to daimyo and samurai), but certainly also substantial continental East Asian male haplogroups (60 to 70 percent Japanese males on average) in the population . The Japanese became more populous and technologically more advanced than the Jomon/Ainu due to agricultural techniques brought by the Yayoi. Then it became Japanese (mixed Yayoi-Jomon) subduing the Jomon/Ainu.
    If I may hypothesize an analogy:consider a USA in the not too distant future in which the population of White/European there has become a minority with current demographic trends. The country underwent Hispanization/Latin Americanization with widespread intermarriages giving predominantly phenotypically mestizoid like population. However the elites who led to this situation were originally white/European heritage, and remain elites, though admixed and mestizoid. The new ‘race’ borned out of this admixture is called the Amerikana race. There are some hard-core racialist Whites holding out in pockets within USA. The New Amerikana race, being more populous, decides on either assimilating or exterminating these recalcitrant remnant whites.
    Amerikana analogous to ‘Japanese’
    Whites analogous to ‘Ainu’
    Are the phenotypically mestizoid Amerikana elites (if you were to do Y Haplogroup analyses, considered as ‘European’ predominantly) considered ‘Whites’ then?
    Ethnic wars, ethnic admixtures, ethnogenesis of new ethnic groups are part of human history and prehistory…. Many ancient events likely remain unknown despite all kinds of scientific analyses.
    I rest my case.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    , @JohnPlywood
  225. @Lot

    “Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.”

    Silly comment… You haven’t been paying attention then. Go check all the NEV car makers and see how many of the top ones are Chinese now. Almost all not named Tesla. Go look which nation has the most valuable start up companies… It’s not the US anymore – and it’s certainly not Japan. It’s not India either… So guess…

    “We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China”

    More silliness. Japan spent centuries as the understudy of China. Often with resentment – but nonetheless the student. The reason Japan was able to invade China was because China was weakened by the other 7 nations of the 8 nation alliance. Once Japan saw what the west did to China – they decided to industrialize instead of keep following China. Would Japan ever dare to take on a peak level China??? Are you kidding?? They tried to take Korea centuries back and China stepped in and slapped Japan back.

    • Replies: @128
  226. @Sinotibetan

    Oh I forgot, American English evolved into a creolized American English + Latin American Spanish + Black-American vernacular English: the Amerikana language, New lingua franca of the country.
    Sorry, just letting my imagination run wild LOL.

  227. 128 says:
    @showmethereal

    Singapore is actually overripe for a color revolution, Lee the Younger does not have nearly the same fortitude as Lee the Elder.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  228. 128 says:
    @showmethereal

    So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?

  229. @songbird

    Interesting observation about the Japanese. Unfortunately I have no answers to these questions. Earlier on, the Japanese imported Han dynasty and Tang dynasty culture + technology and they improved on them. Later, they learned modern science and technology, and improved on them. Other nations may innovate, the Japanese may adopt but improve on those innovations.
    About Europeans, I think the explanation is likely quite complex. Current political and cultural elites in the West and Europe tend to try to uplift non European cultures – especially African and Islamic ones – and focus on the negative aspects of European colonialism /imperialism. It’s a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it’s this ‘moral superiority complex’ of progressive elites to atone for ‘white guilt’ of European imperialism?
    To me, a descendant of ‘the colonialized’ , let bygones be bygones about European imperialism – it was not all bad, and it was not all good for both Europeans and the colonialized peoples. I want to be thankful of the good aspects – I am exposed to British culture, the British left a government and legal system for my country and brought technological and scientific advancement. A lot of bad things were done by British imperialists, but a lot of good were done too. And I think the British (sorry to the French,Dutch and Spaniards) did try to develop their colonies for the better (at least I can say this is true about my own country).
    I think the Europeans had great cultures and scientific and technological contributions to humanity. Their elites should stop undermining this legacy.

    • Replies: @songbird
  230. @last straw

    I made similar points… One person brought up videogames as an example. Well one of the most famous video games out of Japan is a character named Mario – who is an Italian Plumber. He’s not Japanese….
    Mr. Miyagi was a very popular move character… He taught Italian American “Daniel-san”. Well many seemed to miss – that aside from Okinawans not really considering themselves Japanese – in Karate Kid Part 2 – Mr. Miyagi explains to Daniel when they went to his village that Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before.

    • Replies: @last straw
    , @d dan
  231. @128

    What makes Tesla better??? Do you have any clue??? You are just going off hype. Build quality? Reliability? Go check Consumer Reports what is so great about Tesla. Tesla is starting to work with CATL for a reason. Ask yourself why they aren’t working with a US battery company? Ask why they are shifting business from a Japanese one. Ask yourself why Tesla is building out their largest foreign R&D in China and not in Japan…

    And you missed the point. The idea that a lot of Chinese series and movies are on Netflix is because non Chinese watch them now. Yikes!!

  232. @showmethereal

    A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. Causal observers just do not realize that China is changing at neck-breaking speed in recent years. China not only has NEV makers, they also have first-class EV battery makers such as BYD, CATL, and SVolt that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies. Both CATL and SVolt are planning to build gigafactories in Germany that will provide batteries for hundreds of thousands EVs in Europe each year.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @d dan
    , @showmethereal
  233. d dan says:
    @last straw

    “A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. “

    Today, Chinese are filing the most patents in the world. Even many of the patents being filed in US and Europe have Chinese co-inventors’ names. Not surprisingly, many people in the West start to believe that patents are useless – and patents are not a sign of inventiveness nor results of creative efforts.

    Chinese are also publishing more and more scientific papers, surpassing most nations (including US) in many areas. Co-incidentally, many Westerners believe that most scientific papers today are insignificant and lame. Some even believe there is no more important scientific knowledge to be discovered.

    Chinese are making many engineering breakthroughs and innovations in infrastructure projects, building bigger, longer, higher, greener, stronger structures in the most difficult, extreme and inhospitable places. Increasingly, Western media comment that they are white elephants, debt traps, of questionable values or low quality projects.

    Two years ago, I read a journalist reviewing the status of Chinese space program. He noted Chinese has been to make independent progress in all areas, even going beyond American, Russian and European in some. His conclusion: space program has become too mundane and inconsequential for society.

    In the eyes of many, it sounds like Chinese always go to the wrong areas, always a follower, and never do anything right.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
  234. AP says:
    @showmethereal

    Sure, but I did not mean to imply that the Chinese were trying to model themselves on Taiwan politically and socially, rather that Taiwan is a model of what China would be like in terms of per capita economic strength

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  235. d dan says:
    @showmethereal

    “Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before.”

    Jujutsu, another popular Japanese martial arts, was also from Chinese 柔道 and 柔术. Traditional Japanese garment kimono was introduced from China around 300AD. Same for Japanese architecture, origami (art and science of paper folding), tea drinking ritual, religion/philosophies (Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism, Zen 禪), Go (Weiqi 围棋, ancient board game of surrounding that reputes to be more difficult to solve than Chess for AI researchers), kanji and calligraphy, traditional Japanese painting, ikebana flower arrangement (花道 or 華道), interior designs and decorations, etc. Even instant noodle was invented by a Japanese Chinese called Momofuku Ando (安藤百福 or 吳百福).

    There was however, almost zero thing that went from Japan to China in ancient time.

    Further comment on ten areas of Chinese soft power:
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/#comment-3738271

  236. @Lot

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Much of the continental territorial conquests, particularly in North America and Australasia, were against very low population hunter-gatherers that were extremely vulnerable to disease. The Romans couldn’t counquer the Parthians and were restricted to the Mediterranean due to Chinese technology:

    Whether or not the things you mention above are “practical tests of intelligence” is really a matter of perspective. For example, European imperialism enriched a small minority of whites at the time in the short term, but the costs have been tremendous and extend to the present in the multicultural, multiracial quagmire. You could say that isolationism and turning inward might have been the more “intelligent” long term strategy. This also goes for totalitarian communism and high per capita GDP. It’s evident by now that pursuing liberalism and high economic growth and consumption have their own long term costs, and depending on one’s perspective, is more damaging and worse and thus less “intelligent” than communism and lower economic growth.

  237. @Europe Europa

    German war crimes are often called… German. Soviet war crimes are also often called Russian, especially in countries which were under Soviet occupation. Regarding the Chinese, those crimes were committed against their own population, so calling them Chinese crimes wouldn’t be very informative. (This latter is true of Soviet crimes within the USSR.)

    Also, Britain has basically the same form of government as it had during the Empire. It is called the same thing. Even the ideology is nominally unchanged. (Though it did change…) So you cannot really call it anything else. What would be your proposal instead of British, even to avoid the repetition of a word?

  238. @Sinotibetan

    Of course the Japanese didn’t escape. But the Germans didn’t escape it either.

  239. @songbird

    How many times were Chinese fleets driven off the coast of Zeeland?

    • Replies: @songbird
  240. Rahan says:
    @mal

    So I don’t think Canada and Russia are directly comparable – Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    Likewise modern Canada in on an eternal free ride concerning its safety in a military sense. Its only land border is a well-intentioned superpower.

    In the new future, who knows, everything seems in flux these days. But up to now that’s how it worked.

    • Agree: mal
  241. Levtraro says:
    @songbird

    The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100

    Assuming this is coming from statistically solid projections, perhaps what matters is not that the average IQ is falling, but that the standard deviation of IQ is rising. Imagine having cheap and stupid labour under a super smart elite, imagine being sure that your elite offspring will lord over others indefinitely because the lower classes don’t spawn smart kids, no competition for your progeny. That sounds like a plan.

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
  242. @128

    This is because generally speaking, East Asians within the Sinosphere, whether Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese or Koreans have an inferiority complex – they think (and there is some basis for such thinking) that whites(Europeans or American whites) are superior in wealth, culture(European classical music, ‘high culture’, European art and architectures of the past), intelligence(Western philosophical ideas and political theories, scientific and technological advancements), and aesthetics. For millennia, the Han Chinese valued intelligence, high culture and aesthetics. They exported their culture to the Koreans, Japanese and Vietnamese who were initially less developed. So, the Chinese thought they were and will always remain the most civilized and cultured in the world. They call their country the Middle Kingdom and others were considered barbarians, and inferior. The era of European imperialism brought reality and shattered all Chinese delusions (of grandeur, perhaps? ) of themselves. The European ‘barbarians’ shattered whatever racial or civilizational pride they had, nope these Western ‘barbarians’ were cultured, smart, rich, sophisticated and won all wars they had with the Qing Dynasty. Nevermind that the Qing rulers were not even Han Chinese, this by itself was a sign of weakness of Han Chinese civilization at that time.
    So, any Western product or idea already has an edge over Asian made products or ideas in the mind of an average East Asian.
    Being Western made is already good branding, because in the Asian psyche(generally speaking) :-
    Western made products/idea =can be trusted, superior, better quality than similar Asian made products /idea
    Hopefully this kind of inferior complex thinking will change in the future if we Asians can be just as innovative, just as scientifically and technologically sophisticated as the West. It’s us Asians developing the self confidence that we can indeed be just as good or better.
    So, Apple laptops (and many Western products, including being a tourist to Europe or USA!) are status symbols in Asia. Doesn’t equate to it actually being necessarily better than similar Asian made products.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Daniel Chieh
  243. @d dan

    Agree.
    So many cultural aspects of the Japanese were imported from Tang dynasty China, and to a lesser extend from the Sui and Han dynasties.
    Most Japanese vocabulary up to 60 percent, are of Chinese origin, and about 20 percent are used frequently in daily interactions in Japan.
    The former Imperial capital Kyoto(Heian-Kyo) and Nara(Heijo-kyo) were smaller replicas of the Tang dynasty capital Chang’An…
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/7d8a58ac-7482-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35
    It’s too bad that after the An Lushan rebellion, all the palace complex in Chang’An was in ruins, and subsequently totally destroyed. So many palace complexes and cultural heights of past Han and Song dynasties are regretfully gone.
    Japanese culture is like modified and perfected (to Japanese tastes) Tang dynasty culture.

  244. @Sinotibetan

    The prestige of prestige products is a lagging indicator. I’m pretty sure that chinaware made in China or original Chinese silk still enjoyed higher prestige than European equivalents long after Europe has overtaken China. If for no other reason, then because they were more expensive.

  245. @Dmitry

    Both of your examples have a racial basis. Greece has absorbed lots of foreign blood – Jews, gypsies, pakistanis, albanians, africans, arabs, ect.

    North Italy was the “whiter” side of Italy because of teutonic migration. The country is basically half arab and half german, but the northern italians are being encroached upon demographically.

    I know this is not politically correct, but the book Race or Mongrel by Schultz talks about the racial basis of Italian history. Very enlightening. It is on archive.org and is worth reading.

  246. @Sinotibetan

    Besides the ethnic association of quality or status, its been found that given two items of differing place and without much more information to go by, customers often just buy the more expensive of the two items since price is seen as an indicator as quality. Freakonomics wrote about it in an experiment where they were able to sell old watches simply by vastly increasing their prices – without any other information, the exotic name and high price of the old watches made them purchased at much higher rates when they were previously ignored.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  247. Astarte says:
    @E. Harding

    Tianjin is a rust belt city, its economic conditions are more similar to the Northeast than Beijing or Chongqing, most newcomers there are actually families trying to take advantage of is lower Gaokao admission lines.
    It’s less about NIMBYism than Xi’s own ideas, from what I’ve gathered, Xi considers the oversaturation of population in a few coast cities unfeasible in the long run (he’s right imo, both economically and politically) instead he wants to create more opportunities in provincial capitals so talents can find a home there.
    The liberal technocrats, on the other hand, don’t quite share Xi’s concerns, so we will have to see how this ends up.

  248. @Daniel Chieh

    That, plus the prestige of anything western, which is based on the experience of the previous two centuries, i.e. a lagging indicator. Probably it’d be more difficult to sell a Chinese product by simply raising its price for that reason.

  249. Astarte says:
    @Thulean Friend

    A trade area doesn’t necessarily need a big deficit country to increase its overall trade surplus, they can shift their purchases to each other as regulations converge and tariffs decrease, everyone’s exports becoming more competitive globally is its logical conclusion.
    World economy has become much more unbalanced, probably not China’s, the demand for goods, at least in the US, has rebounded due to stimuli, beyond the pre-pandemic level, while demand for services are struggling, the Chinese can’t travel abroad without risking being locked outside the country.

  250. @Sinotibetan

    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned).

    As we can see, the most frequent haplogroup in East Japan, where the majority of Japanese live, is haplogroup D1a. None of the three subclades of O are more frequent than D1a. Of course, combining the three O subclades yields a higher result than D, but none of the individual O clades were more prolific than the singular D1a.

    Futhermore, D isn’t the only Jomon haplogroup. C1 and C2 are found in Ainu and were present i the archipelago prior to Yayoi immigration; and I’ve never read anything linking these haplotypes to Yayoi, so the C1 and C2 in Japanese can be combined with D.

    And the Ainu/Jomon haplotypes become EVEN MORE COMMON among the North Japanese who are supposed by you to have “subdued” the Ainu. Even though there is scant mtDNA contribution from Jomon/Ainu women to the north Japanese.

    So we can garner the following hypotheses from the genetic evidence:

    – Jomon males made the biggest singular contribution to the Japanese Y-DNA samples, and bout 50% of the total

    – Jomon female contribution to Japanese is comparatively tiny

    – Japanese emperors and most Daimyo clans carry the D1b haplogroup from North Japan

    – Japanese men “subdued” north Japan basically by marrying their wives to Ainu

    Which does not add up to any “subduing” of Ainu or Jomon in the traditional sense. And the funny thing is that this had all been predicted by the late 1980s by anthropologists:

    https://www.science-frontiers.com/sf065/sf065a01.htm

    The Samurai And The Ainu

    Findings by American anthropologist C. Loring Brace, University of Michigan, will surely be controversial in race conscious Japan. The eye of the predicted storm will be the Ainu, a “racially different” group of some 18,000 people now living on the northern island of Hokkaido. Pure-blooded Ainu are easy to spot: they have lighter skin, more body hair, and higher-bridged noses than most Japanese. Most Japanese tend to look down on the Ainu.

    Brace has studied the skeletons of about 1,100 Japanese, Ainu, and other Asian ethnic groups and has concluded that the revered samurai of Japan are actually descendants of the Ainu, not of the Yayoi from whom most modern Japanese are descended. In fact, Brace threw more fuel on the fire with:

    “Dr. Brace said this interpretation also explains why the facial features of the Japanese ruling class are so often unlike those of typical modern Japanese. The Ainu-related samurai achieved such power and prestige in medieval Japan that they intermarried with royality and nobility, passing on Jomon-Ainu blood in the upper classes, while other Japanese were primarily descended from the Yoyoi.”

    The reactions of Japanese scientists have been muted so. One Japanese anthropologist did say to Brace,” I hope you are wrong.”

    The Ainu and their origin have always been rather mysterious, with some people claiming that the Ainu are really Caucasian or proto-Caucasian – in other words, “white.” At present, Brace’s study denies this interpretation.

  251. People say that the Chinese/East Asians lack intellectual curiosity, but I don’t think the average Westerner is particularly intellectually curious either. Most British people study to pass tests and increase their salary, not usually because they are genuinely interested in the subject matter.

    It’s probably true there’s more intellectual curiosity in British academia than Chinese academia overall, but that’s more representative of the upper echelons of British society than the attitudes and values of the average person.

    Also, even amongst Western countries the perception of intellectual curiosity and creativity isn’t equal. Like in the UK at least the perception of Germans is that they’re excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
  252. songbird says:
    @Sinotibetan

    It’s a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it’s this ‘moral superiority complex’ of progressive elites to atone for ‘white guilt’ of European imperialism?

    Yes, I think the culture has been harmed, from the elite level. In my opinion though, it doesn’t have anything to do with imperialism – that is more of an excuse. See the modern transformation of Ireland, a country with a long history of being invaded and oppressed. I think it comes from the instinct of egalitarianism – perhaps useful to a certain extent in past times, but kind of short-circuited or made haywire by the presence of diversity, at levels never experienced before.

    If you go back in time, before the population of nonwhites in the West exploded, you’ll see a lot of aspirational messaging in the culture. (say, in the 1980s) There was an appeal to the general public to achieve wealth or success, or to become higher class, or more refined. Kind of like, pre-industrial times, when people aspired to better manners, hence words like “vulgar” or “villain”, referencing low-class behavior.

    What is strange is that today, these messages are practically gone. Wealthy whites have become more villainized. And many/most of the successful people shown on TV (as actors in commercials) are blacks. The aspirational messaging seems to be directed almost entirely at blacks, even in a European country like the UK.

    Also, I think a big part of it is that Europeans are no longer assertive in projecting their own culture. We hear China being mocked a little, for not having the cultural footprint of Japan, but how are Europeans doing in 2020? We are resting on our laurels, our past achievements. Most of our culture, whether in America or Europe, has been taken over by diversity messaging. There is also a lot of Jewish influence in the media, and they don’t seem to have the same root values or attachment to European history or mythology.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
  253. songbird says:
    @Kent Nationalist

    The Age of Exploration is over. What advantages that existed back then, fleetingly, have been eroded. Today, the Chinese manufacture our globes and have their own version of GPS.

    Asians have also accumulated some exploratory firsts. Chinese had the first probe to land on the dark side of the moon, and Japanese had the first landing on an asteroid.

  254. @Europe Europa

    Germans is that they’re excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.

    This perception might have nothing to do with reality. German accomplishments in music and the arts are well known, even their cars are often unique (the Porsche 911 is certainly a pretty original sports car), and of course the British often perceived the Wehrmacht as a rigid organization, when in fact it was the most flexible military (at least the army) in the world.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    , @Dmitry
  255. @AlexanderGrozny

    Poor you… You have been seduced by Winston the South African who failed at his ventures in China while being an English teacher who married a Chinese woman – who now that he left China – the only substance he has in his life is to spend time talking about how China is going to fail. He’s the fully white version of Gordon Chang. Except Gordon Chang targets a more educated audience. Winston – aka “Serpent” (what a name – huh?) targets the mundanely ignorant.

    In any event – ask Tim Cook and he will tell you Huawei is very advanced. Go ask ARM who is one the best users of their architecture. Ask Nokia and Ericsson and Cisco and they will say the same regarding network equipment. But you could check the patents to know that.

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
  256. @utu

    I saw that documentary a couple of years ago. I was pleasantly surprised that explained what really took place in Japan. And yes at the end of the day – since WW2 Japan has been an outpost of US policy. Even willingly neutering itself to appease US interests. Hence Japanese are the “good Asians”.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
  257. @utu

    Propaganda implies falsehoods. He (Daniel Dumbrill) is definitely pro China – but I challenge you to show what he says that is false…. His analysis of the situation in Hong Kong was spot on. Just because a person has a bias doesn’t make them a liar. The guy Serpent ZA by contrast is a snake oil salesmen. He actually used to do pro China videos and then when he married a Chinese woman and failed at business attempts left China and does nothing but make silly videos based on unverified claims. Huge difference.

  258. 128 says:

    So why can’t China fix Manchuria like it fixed Sichuan? I mean it is not as if people will stop riding buses and trains, or stop eating grain, or stop using steel anytime soon right?

  259. Now the real imperialists are back in the game. Trump was always an abberation.

    As I say: it’s misleading to only compare US vs China. You have to look at the colonial networks each can bring to bear. China has nothing comparable. And never will.

  260. If there was a derivatives market for this bet, I would invest heavily in Thulean Friend.

    China has nowhere to go once it hits the technological ceiling. That will happen much sooner than 2050, probably 2030 at the latest.

    The Chinese haven’t invented anything in 600 years. The inventions attributed to the Chinese in antiquity (paper, money, printing press, compass) are of unknown origin. In the 19th century, British sinophiles arbitrarily assigned all major inventions with unknown genesis to the Chinese, hence the myth of Chinese inventiveness. The Chinese have never been a creative people. Their art and music are unremarkable and unvaried. The China you see today was built by the West. Western architects are engineers are the brains behind China’s development. Nearly every major skyscraper in China was designed by Americans or Europeans. And all technological advanced were bought or stolen (more often the latter) from Caucasians. Even China’s government and political framework is a cheap knock-off of the Soviet model.

    By 2030, China will be roughly on par with the US on nominal GDP. Around this time, there will be little left to copy or steal from the West and the Chinese government will have to get creative (unlikely) to keep GDP growing at even 2% annually.

    The first aircraft carrier built by China is a replica of a carrier they purchased from Ukraine in 1998. It even has the obsolete curves runway (a laughable feature for a brand-new carrier), because the Chinese copied everything (including the flaws) from the Soviet carrier. China is a hollow power, everything is for optics. There is very little real power.

    That the Chinese can copy anything, even the most complex technology, is China’s greatest strength and weakness simultaneously. It allowed China to develop faster than any other major economy in world history. On the downside, it ensures that they can never truly surpass the creative West and lead the world.

    China is massive but ultimately mediocre nation. And Karlin gets that right.

  261. @JohnPlywood

    1.)I think you have a point about the Northern Japanese having more proportion of Haplogroup D1 being not in support of the Japanese ‘subduing’ the Ainus. Point taken and a valid argument.
    2.)I don’t think that Haplogroup C-M217(the recent nomenclature for C2) is ‘exclusive’ to early Jomon as it is in very high frequencies in Mongolia (much higher than the Ainus) and is present in appreciable proportions in Korea and Northern China, so it may still be found in the Yayoi.
    3.) The mitochondrial haplogroups N9b and Y (matrilineal origins) are found frequently in Ainus, Rukyu people(also believed to have Jomon origins) and modern day Japanese. Mitochondrial haplogroup N9b is apparently frequent in Japanese, and Ainus and Rukyans, but also found in some southern Chinese and Koreans. See:-
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC524407/
    Mitochondrial haplogroup G1b is prevalent in both Japanese and Ainu/Jomon:-
    Japan considered from the hypothesis of farmer/language spread;Elisabeth de Boer et al;Evolutionary Human Sciences(2020) 2 e13 pg 1 of 20
    This reduces the validity of a Jomon ‘subduing’ Yayoi (killing Yayoi males and getting their females) but supports the Yayoi-Jomon admixture hypothesis of Japanese ethonogenesis.
    4.)However, this following article says that the Ainus, who mostly lived in the North(Hokkaido) were forcibly assimilated into Japanese society over a period of 100 years. Perhaps the assimilation did not mean extermination of male Ainus but more of cultural assimilation to ‘become Japanese’. At least in modern history, the Ainus were indeed ‘subdued’ by the Japanese. See:-
    https://www.sapiens.org/archaeology/ainu-prejudice-pride/

    • Agree: Adûnâi
  262. @Thulean Friend

    You have to look at the colonial networks each can bring to bear. China has nothing comparable. And never will.

    It’s too soon to say that, we need to check back in 20 years time 2040 and see how much progress has been made, China hasn’t even really tried 😂😂😂. Which was a good thing up to her present state of development.

    Argentina’s secretary of foreign affairs Pablo Tettamanti thanked the continued support of the Group of 77. He also thanked China in particular and reiterated that the recovery of the full sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, South Georgia, and South Sandwich Islands and the surrounding maritime spaces constitute a permanent and inalienable right of Argentina.

  263. songbird says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Don’t you mean “India’s colonial network?” Just a few days ago, Sadiq Khan demanded more non-English constabulary to patrol the London concession area.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
  264. 128 says:

    About China trying to decongest its coast, I mean the US did manage to successfully move its population growth from the Northeast to the West and the South.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  265. @Blinky Bill

    Lee Kwan Yew is a brilliant man. His words regarding the Chinese saying about Asians being practical regarding the bamboo going with the way the wind is blowing. Japan has no choice currently – but aside from India and the DPP in Taiwan – the rest of Asia rejected Trump and Pompeo’s attempt to divide Asia against China. They are practical and pragmatic and know how to read the wind.

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
  266. @Tyler Durden

    Hail the always Superior West!

    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
  267. @reiner Tor

    Equally couldn’t the perception of East Asians as rigid and lacking in creativity have nothing to do with reality?

    It seems to me that neither the Chinese, Japanese or Koreans are lacking in artistic/cultural achievements, and the Japanese and Koreans seem to have plenty of recent technological achievements.

    China less so but that probably has more to do with their political system, which is obviously not an indigenous system, and the fact they have only more recently become a “developed” nation compared to Japan and South Korea.

    I’ve never understood why people say East Asians lack creativity and are more rigid with absolute certainty though, in some respects Japanese and Korean pop culture seems more creative, original and prepared to push boundaries than Western pop culture is.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    , @Blinky Bill
  268. @songbird

    To be honest, I don’t think China will be a superpower by 2050, this much I agree with Thulean Friend and many pro West optimists(and supremacists?) here.
    The one I cannot agree upon is their great faith and optimism that the West will always win and that Western civilization will always be at the top. I admire the West and the Europeans, but I am too tired to explain that their great faith and optimism is misplaced. It’s not about whether China will be superpower or reduced to a mediocre nation. It’s about their current elites ‘ progressive/liberal policies and ultimately hegemonic overreach that will destroy the West. In the end its not China who wins, perhaps the Latin Americans or even Arabs or Sub-Saharan Africans who are the true Victors vanquishing the West by ethnocultural replacement and dominance by sheer numbers.

    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
    • Replies: @AP
    , @songbird
  269. @Sinotibetan

    Superior? It depends what you are measuring. The Chinese are more intelligent, for example. Europeans, however, are more creative at the right tail of the distribution, which has implications for national innovation.

    China has been more civilized in a much more productive Nation throughout most of history.

  270. britishbrainsize [AKA "britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker"] says:

    Idont really care how big chinas gdp get all i wan’t it is for it to be big enough to destroy the economies of the racist, small brained and skin cancer prone people of australia and new zeeland so they are unable to send their redneck soldiers into asia forever and are unable to travel to asia.

  271. Tyler Durden says:

    China has nowhere to go once it hits the technological ceiling. That will happen much sooner than 2050, probably 2030 at the latest.

    Why would China hit the technological ceiling anytime soon now that it has both the world’s leading research institutions and R&D programs? China’s scientific and technological ascension have just begun.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01230-x

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01227-6

  272. britishbrainsize [AKA "britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker"] says:
    @JohnPlywood

    Why are you soo intersested in asians dumbass incel no good will ever come out of it .

  273. @Europe Europa

    Ah yes, you certainly have a point here.

  274. @Tyler Durden

    It even has the obsolete curves runway (a laughable feature for a brand-new carrier)

    You mean the STOBAR system? It’s the same the latest British carriers are using. I think Russia recently planned to build a CATOBAR carrier with a STOBAR option, so they thought it’d make sense to keep the ski jump ramp in case something happened to the catapults. (Though I’m not sure how serious those plans were.)

    Anyway, the Chinese copied the Soviet design because it was easier to do for the first indigenously built carrier. Now they are building flattops, and obviously within a decade they will have super-carriers similar to the American flattops.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
  275. @Europe Europa

    in some respects Japanese and Korean pop culture seems more creative, original and prepared to push boundaries than Western pop culture is.

    This most definitely isn’t to everyones tastes, but it’s most definitely original.

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Levtraro
  276. AP says:
    @Sinotibetan

    It’s not about whether China will be superpower or reduced to a mediocre nation. It’s about their current elites ‘ progressive/liberal policies and ultimately hegemonic overreach that will destroy the West. In the end its not China who wins, perhaps the Latin Americans or even Arabs or Sub-Saharan Africans who are the true Victors

    Latin Americans are basically Westerners though. They speak a European language, follow a European religion, are themselves of roughly half-European origin, and have a mostly European elite. If they swamp the USA (very doubtful) it will just be victory of part of the West over another part. But most likely they will simply heavily mix into and darken the working class of the USA rather than overwhelm and take over the country.

  277. @Voltarde

    China’s government is functionally far superior to our own. The big “if” here is with respect to China attracting foreign talent as you see in countries like the US and UAE. That seems dubious as China increasingly looks inward. It appears expats leaving China has become a trend recently.

  278. @Voltarde

  279. @reiner Tor

    STOBAR, correct. The British Navy today is a shadow of its former glory.

    They copied the Soviets because they had a Soviet carrier in their possession and copying is the only thing the Chinese can do to advance. 1.4 billion people–twice the population of Europe–cannot create anything original. And it shows. Everything in China is a copy of copy of copy.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
  280. @Sinotibetan

    The “brilliance” of US information control/distortion vs Russia and China is its subtlety. For instance in Operation Mockingbird the goal was not to control all stories – but instead to plant stories and use PSYOPS to insert imagery and symbols to affect people’s subconscious mind (such as always mentioning “Communist” in front of China or using “regime”). Former CIA agent John Stockwell explains it well too of his own operations in Africa – and what he observed in Jamaica as well.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  281. @d dan

    The Chinese drive forward where the roads have already been paved. They are not trailblazers and never have been.

    That the Chinese never discovered anything–not even Australia–is evidence of the profound lack of curiosity in the Chinese population. Not a single element or star was discovered by the Chinese. Not even the highest peaks of Tibet were climbed by the Chinese. Westerners explored and mapped China more thoroughly than the Chinese. By 1900, Americans and Europeans knew more about China than the Chinese government.

    If China is doing something, you can bet your house it was done before.

    With respect to infrastructure, all the important players are from USA/Europe. The Chinese are just laborers and low level engineers on these projects. Even the chief engineers and project managers are usually from Netherlands, Germany, UK, Australia, Canada, and US. Nearly every major skyscraper in China was designed by Western firms. If China looks a lot like the West, it’s because Western brains are behind every inch of Chinese progress.

    • Agree: RichardTaylor
    • LOL: Blinky Bill, Biff
    • Troll: d dan
  282. Dmitry says:
    @reiner Tor

    These stereotypes of “original cultures” vs “imitative cultures” also relate to the chronology of countries’ development.

    Renaissance begins in Italy and spreads North. Germany’s cultural flourishing is later than in France, and they develop a sense of imitating too much France and Italy, and Germans react with the cult of the genius, and the idea that originality is the highest value in art.

    In Goethe’s time, there was still a sense that Germans need to directly inject culture into themselves, from Italy (even physically that you need to go to live in Italy, to become a cultured person, or to know civilization).

    Russia is the last the developing civilization in Europe, and there is the strongest sense of imitating and importing culture from the West. And endless conflicts and panic across the 19th century about how much to copy and imitate from the West, and awkward feeling of inferiority (and many fearing that everything in the modern Russian culture was an imitation of Europe’s inventions).

    Russia is last developing of the great European wave that begins from the Renaissance. America was already almost too late flourishing civilization, for the great classical composers, writers and painters to feel like a native part of their heritage. So, in America, there is still a sense of inferiority and “imitating Europe”, in classical music, painting and literature.

    But America was saved to some extent by the crazy technological change of the 20th century, and able to be the original creative flourishing in new culture fields like cinema, jazz…later video games, etc.

    • Agree: utu
    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
    • Replies: @utu
  283. @china-russia-all-the-way

    Correct about currency exchanges…. And that’s why most economists like to use PPP to measure an economy now – as it is more realistic. In that sense China already passed the US in 2014… By 2050 it can indeed be twice the size of the US and possibly more… Of course none of us knows what 30 years will bring.

  284. @Thulean Friend

    I agree and disagree with various points – but I have one question regarding migration. You noted that Israeli brains still migrate to the west. Well why do you think that is the case vs South Korean and Japanese brains who stay home??? (Taiwan engineers used to go to the west too but now the only place they migrate too much now is Mainland China)

  285. songbird says:
    @Sinotibetan

    We debate here a bit what it means to be a superpower.

    In the military sense, I’m not sure China has the motivation to pursue peak US military capacity, or get embroiled in distant third world countries, trying to “nation-build.” I’m not sure that it is a desirable thing. Capacity seems to lead to use of that capacity.

    But I think China by 2050 might accomplish great things. Like, I wouldn’t be surprised if they sent men to the Moon. Some say the US has permanently lost this capacity – I think it will still manage, but if so, it will be an exercise in political correctness, and not be inspiring. More a deconstruction of the original accomplishment, than anything else.

    I agree wholeheartedly that the internal demographic situation in the West dwarfs any external threat that the it might face. Many nationalists even unwittingly downplay it themselves, talking about net percentages and not about percentages of the youth cohort or births.

  286. @Philip Owen

    Yeah I found that strange… Why would someone not want a high IQ plumber…? I mean they don’t need to be a genius – but they should be above average intelligence.

  287. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    “So, in America, there is still a sense of inferiority and “imitating Europe”, in classical music, painting and literature.”

    The sense of inferiority possibly was present among some members of higher social classes particularly the ladies who liked to indulge in sentimental European literature written by European sentimental ladies by dime a dozen. But in general Americans had almost Bolshevik level certitude of superiority, a sense of arrogance that they are the best and that they are building a better future. The remnants of it still exist among the lower classes where it is supported by their ignorance of the world: “We are #1” and “USA, USA” chanting crowd. Even among SJWs who like to bitch about America’s racism and past crimes against humanity they would claim that still American is #1 and the future of the world is being forged in America because America is special and that they are special.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestic_Manners_of_the_Americans
    “A single word indicative of doubt, that any thing, or every thing, in that country is not the very best in the world, produces an effect which must be seen and felt to be understood. If the citizens of the United States were indeed the devoted patriots they call themselves, they would surely not thus encrust themselves in the hard, dry, stubborn persuasion, that they are the first and best of the human race, that nothing is to be learnt, but what they are able to teach, and that nothing is worth having, which they do not possess.” – Mrs. Trollope (1832)

    “Nothing is more embarrassing in the ordinary intercourse of life than this irritable patriotism of the Americans. A stranger may be very well inclined to praise many of the institutions of their country, but he begs permission to blame some of the peculiarities which he observes – a permission which is, however, inexorably refused. America is therefore a free country, in which, lest anybody should be hurt by your remarks, you are not allowed to speak freely of private individuals, or of the State, of the citizens or of the authorities, of public or of private undertakings, or, in short, of anything at all, except it be of the climate and the soil; and even then Americans will be found ready to defend either the one or the other, as if they had been contrived by the inhabitants of the country.” – Alexis de Tocqueville (1840)

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  288. utu says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Any centrally governed country that is catching up will try to use the last solutions and not follow the meandering past of intermediate solutions by the leader they try to catch up with. Instead of going along the curves as the leader went it will cut the corners. Optimize the distance by taking the secants not the path on circle circumference. The USSR was doing it with big injection of American know how and industry and China is doing it. In the process they often miss something intangible of what made the progress by the leader possible as their goals are often set artificially not driven by the needs but by the indicators of how much they are still behind. Producing more poor quality steel than it was needed in the USSR is similar to building cities with shabby quality buildings that can’t be populated in China.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
  289. I will believe China is the future center of wealth and power in the world when Jews start moving from New York to Shanghai by the tens of thousands.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
  290. @128

    Sad but true – there are forces seeking to liberalize Singapore which will destroy the exact things that made Singapore a success in the first place. Loosening of social mores and idiotic political wrangling are being pushed. Hopefully Singapore can hold out. Ironically a strong China is the best defense… Which is sort of what Lee Kwan Yew was referring to in the video someone posted above (though he was speaking more economically and militarily).

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  291. @128

    “So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?”

    Because it is a status symbol… the same way an Audi or Mercedes is… Why is that strange? chinese are not xenophobic when it comes to brands… But I tell you what – if Apple were to pull all of it’s production out of China – you would see how quickly that would change.

  292. @V. K. Ovelund

    China just recently announced their 2035 plan. GDP per capita to 25000$ by 2035. Most of the Chinese netizens wrote that they believe this goal can be achieved by 2030. They are really confident about their country n future.

    That is a very American trait that I noticed recently.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  293. @showmethereal

    Singapore is already turning Indian. Imo, already too late. You guys got taken over.

  294. Anon99 says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Hey Tyler Durden. Can you tell your government to stop its insane campaign against China because you know China can’t possibly match up to the west?

  295. @showmethereal

    To be honest. I think it is very easy to do. Especially for a big govt with no budget problems.

    Completely analyze any PR specialist or company. Learn and reproduce the methods. Of course change or improve as necessary. Best of all, set up companies and make it look like it is natural and with no govt involvement. And make sure every specialist appearing on TV gets the memo.

    Voilà.

    Think of it as producing a drama or movie. With the right story and narrative of your choosing. So, when China is finally about to make good shows on TV regularly, easily, that would be when it’s PR ability matures.

    That is also why the Jewish dominates Hollywood.

  296. Smith says:

    What’s this jab about Mario not being japanese? He’s still made by a japanese.

    Sun Wukong, the most popular fictional character ever invented by China, similarly, isn’t even chinese, but a stone monkey. Does his race/nationality/species more important than where he was made/invented?

    Also, while China also gets inspired hugely by India through Buddhism, and of course Manchurian culture is now the mainstream chinese culture while Han culture is basically just LARPing in TV shows, so sit down and be humble.

    Talking about video games, been playing the current Japanese game hotness, Sakuna: Of Rice & Ruin.

    Planting rice and harvesting, check out my rice field.

    The japanese got it in making video games, this is done by a 2 dudes team, impressive as hell.

    I recommend anyone who like rice culture to check out this game.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  297. @Tyler Durden

    I see what you’re doing, you’re just pushing Chinese people to be the best they can be!

  298. @E. Harding

    What do you think of the Chinese 2035 plan that was just announced? 25,000$ per capita GDP by 2035. 15 years to go from 11000$ to 25000$.

    • Replies: @danand
    , @Rahan
  299. @Tyler Durden

    I will believe China is the future center of wealth and power in the world when Jews start moving from New York to Shanghai by the tens of thousands.

    Thing is, they won’t be allowed to. Jewish centuries are over, as the cucks sucking up to them go down the drain. A whole new chapter in human history is beginning, and Jews won’t be at the center of it any more.

    • Replies: @Miville
    , @Zarathustra
  300. If China is doing something, you can bet your house it was done before.

    With respect to infrastructure, all the important players are from USA/Europe.

    5G/6G telecommunication systems, quantum communication system, hypersonic missile (DF-17), anti-ship ballistic missiles (DF-21D & DF-26B), million-mile battery for EVs, just a couple of examples.

    As for infrastructure, you really sound like you are living in your own world:

    https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/chinese-bridges.331300/page-94

    https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/china-highways-expressways.154903/page-78

    https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/china-high-speed-rail.1265631/page-656

    https://www.skyscrapercity.com/forums/cityscapes-%E5%9F%8E%E5%B8%82%E9%A3%8E%E5%85%89.803/

    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
  301. @128

    You didn’t reply directly so I didn’t see this… But you realize Panasonic has been Tesla’s supplier from the start. The reality is though that it is partnering with CATL (and LG Chem) for a reason…. CATL is moving much faster than Panasonic nowadays…

    • Replies: @128
  302. @d dan

    Indeed… Though you left out musical instruments that the Japanese adapted from China…

    And yeah – even the quintessential martial art tied to Japan ‘ Ninjitsu – was based on Chinese military manuals.

  303. @Thulean Friend

    But what happens if China by it self is enough? Vs all of that.

    What can those countries do to China? Right now or in the next 4 years. Be realistic, non of the Indian wishful thinking please.

    Before RECP, it was deemed militarily invincible by American experts short of nuclear war. After RECP, wouldn’t China be economically invincible? Or are you saying USA has the wealth to pry the RECP members away from their biggest trade partner.

  304. @Pericles

    I was betting on before 2030. It is now 2025. The shorter date is because of the recent activities in 2020.

  305. @Smith

    “What’s this jab about Mario not being japanese? He’s still made by a japanese.

    Sun Wukong, the most popular fictional character ever invented by China, similarly, isn’t even chinese, but a stone monkey. Does his race/nationality/species more important than where he was made/invented?”

    Pretty slick to make a comment without replying directly. In any event – the point was about soft power and exporting culture. An Italian plumber working in NY (Mario) is not a Japanese character for a reason. He was to appeal to the world. Zelda – was a fictional character who looks like a European elf. Sonic the Hedgehog was just that – a cartoon character based on an animal. Nothing “Japanese” about those worldwide franchises. Superman – Captain America – etc etc were made to be American heroes. So where are the Japanese soft power heroes except Mr Miyagi (really Okinawan) from Karate Kid?

    Mulan is not American because the new movie was made by Disney.
    You seriously don’t get it?

    • Replies: @Smith
  306. Smith says:
    @showmethereal

    That’s insane, so for japanese soft power to count, the characters need to be ethnically japanese too?

    Mario, Zelda, Sonic, all of these are created by japanese culture, and are recognized as japanese worldwide.

    Also, Zelda is not the european elf-inspired, you mean Link.

    If you want actual japanese heroes, all you have to do is study a bit more:
    – Doraemon
    – Son Goku
    – Reimu Hakurei
    – Satoshi/Red
    – Various Ryu (from Street Fighter or Ninja Gaiden)
    – Rurouni Kenshin

    Mulan is not American because the new movie was made by Disney.

    Disney Mulan is indeed created by american culture, and thus nothing to do with China.

    No, it’s you who don’t get it.

    It’s the country that creates those characters that matter, not their actual ethnicity.

    If China can only create ethnic chinese characters/heroes as “soft power”, it would surely fail, because the world is not just China.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  307. @last straw

    Not a single thing you listed was invented are achieved in China first. Thanks for adding evidence to bolster my case.

    >5G? The technology was already developed by Geoff Brown in partnership with NASA in 2008.
    >Hyper-sonic weapons systems were first developed in Russia.
    >Ballistic missiles? 1940s German technology.
    >Million-mile battery? Jeff Dahn (American) is pioneering this research, the Li ion tech is American.
    >Elevated highways and suspension bridges? 19th century technology (American/European origin)

    As for infrastructure, it’s absolutely beautiful. The Chinese have successfully implemented European technologies on a massive scale, congratulations. I understand all of this is new in China but it’s not new in the West.

    We must give China credit for leveraging public resources to rapidly fund and develop large-scale infrastructure projects. The Chinese government and CCP are very effective and should be admired for their achievements. Everything you presented, however, strengthens my case that China is never first.

    By the way, the tallest building in China was designed by the American architect Marshall Strabala and the engineering teams were from New York. I hope you like it.

    I genuinely enjoyed the photos.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Thanks: Lot
    • LOL: HeebHunter
    • Troll: d dan
  308. Miville says:
    @Dmitry

    Greek literature is actually not less interesting nowadays than it was, I wouldn’t say during the Greek classical era, but about year zero, which was not uninteresting at all. It just doesn’t strike as much attention. Florence does not produces geniuses nowadays because the city does not have the same function. The regions around Florence produce quite a few number of very bright people but they congregate elsewhere in Italy.

  309. Miville says:
    @AnonFromTN

    They will be allowed in China, they will even elicit sympathy, but they won’t be allowed to climb anywhere, as China is better endowed in all predatory talents that were the Jews’ forte on the background of Europeans.

    • Replies: @HeebHunter
  310. GMC says:

    How can any country today have a good economic future , with the US/NWO Government and their militaries invading every country that doesn’t have nuclear weapons, not to mention the illegal sanctions that have been put on dozens of countries. Forecasting the Future is a waste of time – once you consider this.

  311. Dmitry says:
    @utu

    Last century, American media seemed still to have some inferiority sense about painting, classical music, and possibly literature. These arts which were almost exhausted internationally by the 1920s, just as America was reaching its moment of cultural fertility, and so too late to make important contributions to them (with an exception maybe of novels and poetry).

    For example, in classical piano performance, America had so much excitement and pride about Van Cliburn, and previously regrets about the lost hope of William Kapell (who was killed in an aviation disaster at the start of his career).

    This is because the greatest classical pianists in America had usually been immigrants from Europe like Josef Hofmann. Immigrant pianists like Josef Hofmann or Horowitz were beloved for the American public, but there was an inferiority sense that America could never produce great classical pianists. This is resulted in the hype and patriotism we see later in relation to the success of a native-born Van Cliburn.

    There was something similar in art in the middle 20th century, where America’s hopes of having an original school of painting resulted in overpromotion of Jackson Pollock and Abstract Expressionism. It was already 40 years after Malevich’s “Black Square”, and painting was becoming a dying art form – but still American critics seemed to be dreaming that they had their finally their own native American-born genius, who could be comparable to the great painters Europe had in past centuries.

    In literature, of course Americans wrote important books. But there is also this phrase “I want to write the great American novel”. It seems to imply a sense that there isn’t a great American novel yet (although there are possible candidates). If you compare “I want to make the great American film” – the latter sounds absurd, as everyone expects there are many great American films. But with novels… not quite.

    Americans will be found ready to defend either the one or the other, as if they had been contrived by the inhabitants of the country.” – Alexis de Tocqueville (1840)

    It’s interesting to look at this retrospectively. An irritating and arrogant sense of “manifest destiny” of 19th century Americans, was at least justified or fulfilled by the country’s success in the 20th century. So, at least, it wasn’t a delusional intuition.

    Also I would say in favour of America, that the cultural inferiority in the traditional arts is likely less a result of lack of ability or inspiration, and more because these arts (classical music, painting, and the novel) themselves were mostly exhausted and declining by the early 20th century.

    Whereas in the new art forms like cinema, or jazz music – America was a world leader in the middle of the 20th century. Although the cultural decline comes quite soon after. (As early as late 1960s in jazz, and perhaps 1970s in cinema?).

  312. GMC says:
    @Max Payne

    Hey now, I drive a 1999 lada 2111 and before that a 1998 universal { Wagon} –the cars are cheapy OK – but the problem is the roads. Roads in Ukraine will eat up any car or jeep. I’ll take a Lada over their busses – any day. lol And yes . the roads I drove on in Ukraine were never took care of – their roads were ranked 140 th out of 148 countries. and even Russia has had to start re-building the roads in Crimea – all of them. That photo of Ukie road is typical – especially today. And Ukraine won’t change because it is as corrupt as the USA – but without that printing press to keep the USG and accomplices – just getting by. Spacibo.

  313. @Tyler Durden

    First of all, why does China have to be the first to invent something exclusively? I doubt you can innovate or develop many things in the modern world without inputs from other studies by other scholars. If Chinese can develop sufficient technologies independently, with the help of knowledge acquired from researches by other experts, it probably will be good enough for China to transcend the West, because of the utter amount of innovation and entrepreneurship that China is posed to unleash.

    >5G? The technology was already developed by Geoff Brown in partnership with NASA in 2008.

    Then why there isn’t a 5G network in the U.S., and the U.S. is trying to block Huawei each step of the way?

    >Hyper-sonic weapons systems were first developed in Russia.

    China independently developed their own hypersonic missile in parallel with Russia. As I said, there is no need for China to be the first to invent anything exclusively. Being one of the only two nations that possess hypersonic missiles is good enough for now.

    >Ballistic missiles? 1940s German technology.

    You are being disingenuous here. It’s like saying that modern cannon and rocket is China’s gunpowder technology.

    >Million-mile battery? Jeff Dahn (American) is pioneering this research, the Li ion tech is American.

    Jeff Dahn is the guy who was supposed to present some new battery technologies on Tesla’s “Battery Day” on Sept. 22. Unfortunately, nothing interesting came out. CATL’s million mile battery, on the other hand, is commercially ready:

    https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32801823/million-mile-ev-battery-pack-revealed/

    The question is, of course, where is Jeff Dahn and Tesla’s “million-mile battery?” You see, nowadays Chinese companies are not only innovative, they are also ultra-competitive.

    >Elevated highways and suspension bridges? 19th century technology (American/European origin)

    If you gave even a cursory look at the links I posted, you would know that the technologies of Chinese infrastructures are something that engineers in the 19th century could not even have dreamed of.

    By the way, the tallest building in China was designed by the American architect Marshall Strabala. I hope you like it.

    There are many, many, tall buildings in China. BTW, ever heard of I. M. Pei?

    • Replies: @d dan
  314. @Tyler Durden

    First of all, why does China have to be the first to invent something exclusively? I doubt you can invent or develop many things in the modern world without inputs from other studies by other scholars. If Chinese can develop sufficient technologies independently, with the help of knowledge acquired from researches by other experts, it probably will be good enough for them to transcend the West, because of the utter amount of innovation and entrepreneurship that China is posed to unleash.

    >5G? The technology was already developed by Geoff Brown in partnership with NASA in 2008.

    Then why there isn’t a 5G network in the U.S., and the U.S. is trying to block Huawei each step of the way?

    >Hyper-sonic weapons systems were first developed in Russia.

    China independently developed their own hypersonic missile in parallel with Russia. As I said, there is no need for China to be the first to invent anything exclusively. Being one of the only two nations that possess hypersonic missiles is good enough for now.

    >Ballistic missiles? 1940s German technology.

    You are being disingenuous here. It’s like saying that modern cannon and rocket is China’s gunpowder technology.

    >Million-mile battery? Jeff Dahn (American) is pioneering this research, the Li ion tech is American.

    Jeff Dahn is the guy who was supposed to present some new battery technologies on Tesla’s “Battery Day” on Sept. 22. Unfortunately, nothing interesting came out. CATL’s million mile battery, on the other hand, is commercially ready:

    https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32801823/million-mile-ev-battery-pack-revealed/

    The question is, of course, where is Jeff Dahn and Tesla’s “million-mile battery?” You see, nowadays Chinese companies are not only innovative, they are also ultra-competitive.

    >Elevated highways and suspension bridges? 19th century technology (American/European origin)

    If you gave even a cursory look at the links I posted, you would know that the technologies of Chinese infrastructures are something that engineers in the 19th century could not even have dreamed of.

    By the way, the tallest building in China was designed by the American architect Marshall Strabala. I hope you like it.

    There are many, many, tall buildings in China. BTW, ever heard of I. M. Pei?

  315. d dan says:
    @last straw

    “There are many, many, tall buildings in China. BTW, ever heard of I. M. Pei?”

    Hahaha, after being beaten in Vietnam War, American had to ask a “Chink” undergraduate from Yale calls Maya Ying Lin to design the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in Washington, D.C. Ironic, isn’t it? And let’s not even talk about those intelligent white workers’ inability to complete their vital Transcontinental Railway without the helps of the lowest of the low class jobless coolies from China.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya_Lin

    That guy is obviously a troll here to provoke and insult – just don’t take him too seriously.

    • Agree: HeebHunter
  316. 128 says:
    @showmethereal

    Well, Tesla’s American in house researchers just announced a 2mn mile battery, so maybe they will just be making those batteries on their own.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  317. 128 says:

    The 4680 batteries are actually promising even better than 2 million mile performance.

  318. Limiting factors of China:

    – shaky institutions for protecting property rights and markets
    – political system that could veer off in any number of dangerous directions
    – widespread corruption, far beyond the West
    – same problem with truly breakthrough innovations that all Asian countries have

    China is able to get richer only because the US exists. We provide the basic institutions that even they rely on. No one will ever trust their billions to a Chinese bank. We more or less prop up the global system they need.

    They’ll get richer but rate of growth will slow.

    For reasons that are remain unresolved, the US is considerably richer than naively predicted by its human capital, while the developed East Asian polities (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.) are considerably poorer.

    Yeah. Those unresolved matters involve race, genetics and culture that go beyond an IQ test.

    • Agree: Tyler Durden
    • Replies: @last straw
  319. padre says:

    Is the author suggesting, that west has higher IQ, than the rest of the world?Well, just keep on relying on it!

  320. It seems to me that in general on the occasions East Asians have beaten European armies, it has been because of their greater willingness to use sadistic and demoralising violence, especially in treatment of POWs. Sort of shock tactics I guess.

    I think this is how the Japanese had the advantage against the British and Americans during WW2 to start with, but once they realised they were dealing with sadistic people with no morals (towards the enemy), and started responding in the same way, the Japanese then lost any advantage and started to lose heavily.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  321. @Europe Europa

    Actually in the end the Japanese strategy of being extremely brutal and sadistic was probably counter-productive as it made the Allies lose any shred of good will they might have had for the Japs and made them just see them as vermin who deserve nothing but extermination and is what culminated in Atom bombs being dropped on them.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
    , @Aseansupreme
  322. Adrian E. says:

    „ or “bifurcated” between a US-Western sphere and a Sino-centric one“

    I think something is missing here. If the Chinese economy will be several times the size of the US American one (and possibly also more than twice as big as the US and the EU added together), which seems plausible, albeit not guaranteed, I think it is highly doubtful that there will be a coherent „US-Western sphere“.

    Even this year, a poll showed that there are slightly more Germans who consider relations with China very important than those who consider relations with the US very important. In a situation in which China’s economy is much larger, most of today‘s US allies will probably give relations with China higher priority and relations with the US, a smaller regional power, relatively far away from the most dynamic regions, will be given lower priority.

    If the US will be ready to adapt to a situation in which it does not dominate anything any more and both China and countries like India or Indonesia will be more influential, it may well be that countries like the European ones that have cultural connections with the US will be ready to keep up relatively good relations with the US. But if the US wants to lead an anti-Chinese block, it will most likely find itself alone and isolated internationally.

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  323. noname27 says: • Website

    In 2050 there will be no Chinese GDP, only the ‘GDP’ of The Kingdom of God with Yashua Messiah (Jesus Christ) ruling as King of kings and Lord of lords with a rod of iron = Tough Love.

    • LOL: Biff
    • Replies: @showmethereal
  324. @Suicidal_canadian

    You really need to be a tad more critical of news stories you see, bro.

    • Replies: @Biff
  325. Biff says:
    @Redneck farmer

    You really need to be a tad more critical of news stories you see, bro.

    Everything that Suicidal_canadian listed is hidden by the news stories.

  326. 128 says:

    CATL’s million-mile battery was said to be the same battery Tesla was working on and will be using, that will be announced on battery day, given that no million-mile battery was announced last battery day, this claim by CATL’s and Tesla likely seems to be dubious.

  327. @AnonFromTN

    Jews will marry in US Chinese girls, create little degenerate Chinese Jews and than move to China.
    They will take over China, but it will take about hundred years,

  328. Levtraro says:
    @AnonFromTN

    This is a very serious question but the presence of a senile POTUS is counterbalanced (among other things) by the increased military power of Russia and China. The USA reported success in testing of ICBM interception capabilities just a few days back but that didn’t include hypersonic missiles or realistic, difficult circumstances.

  329. What is puzzling to me that Chinese leadership does not pay too much attention to modernize agricultural production, and so to become totally self sufficient.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  330. @Zarathustra

    There is not a single hapa (japa?) in the CCP’s Politburo.
    There will never be one. Of course, unless the Chinese give in completely into Western anal “economy” and “culture”.
    But, recent empirical events have suggested that not to be the case. I even think that the main Chinese population will be too embarrassed to have anglo-judaic first names anymore.
    In fact, I haven’t seen any Chinese student with anything but pure ethnic names for awhile.

  331. @Miville

    Pretty much this. If that happens, the kikes will find themselves in a position worse than that of the historically rowdy Uighur muslims.
    I think the real Holohoax will be upon those yids when they seek refuge in China.

  332. @AnonFromTN

    I agree that muttmerica is like a squriming, writhing Kraken in it’s death throes, and those tentacles are dangerous.
    But we have to remember that Muttmerica’ “Full Spectrum Dominance” has been dead for a long time. MAD is real, but overestimated.
    Any country that launches a nuke will find itself to be the sole schizo in this era. Which is why Pissrael hasn’t nuked Iran or Lebanon yet.

    If anything, my favorite scenario is that Kamala will launch a stupid nuke and then the world will pound together on muttmerica, depopulating every cm of that demonic country. Then we all get to play stalker for real for a century. The Wild West, remastered with western infantry weapon systems, rebooted!
    LOL

  333. AaronB says:
    @Tyler Durden

    China implements, it does not create – so far. The future is uncharted territory, although it has been said the best guide to the future is the past.

    This reflects different social priorities. All talk of differences in racial ability aside, societies do actually have different priorities. And the “deep” structure of a society, down to very trivial customs and manners, may be organized to maximize certain social priorities, such that it cannot easily be changed by diktat from above, in a day.

    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
  334. Passer by says:

    China already produces 70 % of the US level of quality science so the claim in can not innovate is dubious. The catch up in the Nature Index is very fast.

  335. @Tyler Durden

    Hi Tet
    There is certain advantage to do large projects second. You copy so you are copycat, but you see many details on finish product what you can do better.

    • Agree: HeebHunter
  336. Passer by says:

    China’s Anti-Covid Police back in March.

  337. Levtraro says:
    @mal

    Let’s call it “post-modern Keynesianism”. It could bring about a whole new metaphysical econometrics where things don’t matter, just feelings and sentiments.

    • Agree: mal
  338. Levtraro says:
    @Europe Europa

    Nah, I rather believe Japs got atomic bombs dropping on them as a warning to the Soviets. Japs were the incidental victims of the start of the Cold War.

  339. danand says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    “15 years to go from 11000$ to 25000$.”

    Astuteobservor, that would be quite a drop from the rate of growth they have enjoyed over the past 15 years (~$2,000 USD per capita in 2006).

    For a real eye opener take a gander at the number of China based, and in many cases, China market only, companies that now make up part of the US equity markets, especially Nasdaq listings. It is mind blowing. I can see a time not too far off where if a company, say AAPL, were forced to chose either the US market or that of China, it would be a no brainer. They’d be forced to choose China by fiduciary responsibility.

    Could be why nearly all large publicly listed companies are, even if not naturally inclined, opposed to Trump? China has really has lucked out with the “election” of Joe “to the highest bidder” Biden and clan.

    • Replies: @A123
  340. The opinion of a World Leading Kenyan Intellectual and Statesman.

    Worth a read!

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  341. Only the ignoramus believes in the “innovation” meme.
    Most of engineering has always been about refining and optimizing existing processes. If retards had had their ways, every single person on earth would have to learn binary calculation again. Inventions do happen, but not as often as the ignorant masses like to think.

    The West had a good start due to the need to drive the colonial war machine back then. The constant medieval warfare helped too.

    But now is the age of IT, and you don’t need war to incentivize maximum development. Not yet, at least.

    If anything, China, Russia and India will come to dominate IT, while the West will be too busy producing more trashy, perverted, pedophilic entertaintment products while it’s abandoned engineers and inventors go East so their lifework doesn’t go down the drain. Which is exactly what happened with the Chinese traffic infanstructure story. Too bad, the Chinese have now learned the last lession of efficient logistics, haha. And all of them except the (((West))) are investing in Fusion with actual tangible efforts, not just mouthbreathing. Probably because they actually want to move forward, while the (((West))) can’t stand cheap electrical bills for the goyim, hehe

    Waiting for muttmerica to launch a nuke so the rest of the world can gang up on them, the entire island monkey culture network and Pissrael, then to pound them to extinction. The rest of the world will improve immensely.

    • Agree: Zarathustra
  342. Adûnâi says: • Website
    @Thulean Friend

    > “Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument.”

    Be it thanks to cadres or Socialist friendship, but the DPR Korea is an incredibly advanced society, while also being substantially impoverished. As Andrei Lankov comments, North Korea has a lot of features of a first/second-world country – a high level of medical care and education, relatively high life expectancy (65.96 years male, 73.86 years female), a relatively low fertility rate (1.98 children/woman). Democratic Korea is a post-apocalyptic country successfully enduring a 30-year-long siege while also having acquired nuclear weapons (with the population of 25 mil., and without benefiting from a parasitic lobby in a Grand Power). The only comparable cases may be found in Eastern Europe, but those are coupled with chronic emigration, braindrain, LGBT propagation, high suicide rates and a loss of sovereignty. By any metric, Juche Korea must be considered an imagination-defying success story.

    • Replies: @HeebHunter
  343. @utu

    Ever heard of barefoot Amish… Indians are no different.

  344. @Adûnâi

    North Korea is the last surviving National Socialist country. There isn’t enough respect in the world for these fighters.

    If muttmerica fell, we will see North Korea overwhelming the gay, anal Southern regions and establish a technocratic modern monarchy.

    We, humanity, MUST destroy all anglo/jew states if we as a species hope to survive and escape to the stars.

    • Agree: Adûnâi
    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  345. (mean IQ 100 x 2l00,000,000) x tech. ed. Level
    (105 x 1,000,000,000) x tech. ed. level

  346. @Lot

    Who would buy something named Dong no matter how good it is? Dong ain’t no thing called Mustang, Mercedes, Toyota, Ferrari, Porche … it simply is stupid dong!

  347. @Tyler Durden

    Why the need to be “first” in everything in order to give your low self esteem a boost? Give me a bullet train between NY and Washington so i can feel better about myself.

  348. @Blinky Bill

    China does rarely assembly. China does mostly parts. Assembly is mostly done in corporations that give out the work to China. Take for example kitchen gadgets. If you take apart any kitchen gadget, all inside parts are stamped made in China, while plastic part and assembly is made in US.

  349. britishbrainsize [AKA "britausnzbrainsize1325ccsnicker"] says:
    @Tyler Durden

    “That the Chinese never discovered anything–not even Australia–is evidence of the profound lack of curiosity in the Chinese population.”
    Lucky for you people with bad british dna we and other asians are are this way or we would have destroyed australia by now like how is US doing to cuba.

  350. Chinaman says:

    9It is interesting to hear all these views from non-specialists on economics. By specialists, I don’t mean economists, I mean hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio.

    Here are some salient points and perspectives that the author or commenters fail to mention.

    1. GDP, normal or PPP fail to take into account that a haircut is 3x more expensive in New York than in China. It also fail to take into account finance and lawyers are parasitic to the economy and actually siphons productivity from the economy. It is a sort of double-counting of GDP.Healthcare is perhaps an order of magnitude more expensive in US than China -A COVID test is free in China- What matter is tradable GDP or GDP you can export (or consume internally)… From that pespective, I believe China’s tradable GDP is already close to US, Japan and Europe combined.

    2. China have half of the world’s STEM graduates. 10 times the US. This is where all the growth will come from in the future. Even if China is facing a demographic implosion, its STEM population are all in their 20s and relatively young compared to the rest of the world. This matters a lot since this is the generation that is doing 5g and next-gen tech. Tawian ‘s STEM population is all in their 30 and 40s now. Andriod and IS is so crappy and passe that it begs be replaced. It goes without Singularity will happen in China.

    3. Economies of scale and supply curves is not as important as purchasing power and size of China’s markets. Some products requires a critical mass of middle class consumers in order to justify investments. IPhone is the best example. The spending power of China’s middle class and manufacturing prowess ensures we will see a whole host of new products from China.

    4. China have a lot higher inflation than western societies. This inflates away debt and socialize the cost of capitalism. You shouldn’t take on debt without inflation. Look at Japan.

  351. @HeebHunter

    I am trying to convince people on this website that every country which has a one party rule eventually become national socialistic country. Jewish influence totally evaporates.
    Eventually it will happen in US. And I do not care which party in US will win Democrats or Republicans. Jews can do their chicanery only in multiparty democracies.
    It is simply old proverb. When two are fighting third is the winner. And in this case Jews are the winners.

  352. A123 says:
    @danand

    AAPL, were forced to chose either the US market or that of China, it would be a no brainer. They’d be forced to choose China by fiduciary responsibility.

    The CCP elites corrupted one their own national champions, Hauwei, with embedded 5G espionage code. What are they capable of doing to do to a firm that is tied to what the CCP calls an enemy?

    Apple sees this existential risk to their business. They have been moving iPhone production out of China and into India at a phenomenal rate. (1) This apparently includes the entire vendor supply chain below Indian contractors.

    Union Minister for IT and Communications Ravi Shankar Prasad on Thursday revealed that 9 of the 11 manufacturing units that make iPhones for Apple have shifted from China to India. Speaking at the inaugural session of the 23rd edition of the Bengaluru Tech Summit

    Of course, Apple will not leave China. They are soulless. (2)

    The Apple ccpPhone, made in China, is the only Apple phone available in China. It comes with many pre-installed social unity features allowing the CCP to guide and educate Chinese citizens. To strengthen device security and national conformity, each ccpPhone unlock will require reading a page from Mao’s Little Red Book for iRetina™ validation. Remember Apple’s motto for CCP controlled regions;

        We Are Watching You — For Your Protection  

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/9-apple-manufacturing-units-china-shifted-india-union-min-ravi-shankar-prasad-138023

    [MORE]

    (2) HTML5 really needs sarcasm tags (sarc)(/sarc) — It should be obvious this is not an actual quote. Apple will never openly admit that that the ccpPhone is a current iPhone product. However, there will probably be some histrionic response.

  353. Whitewolf says:
    @rensselaer

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    The Japanese have the advantage of not being a communist country for decades. That abomination of an ideology screws up the entire mindest of the population.

    The Japanese have also heard of the word “quality” and in general take great pride in producing quality goods. The Chinese given a chance to fake it for a quick buck won’t hesitate.

    I don’t see China surpassing the US unless the US and other countries continue to outsource to China. There are already other Asian countries being built up and that is likely to continue which is going to cut into their growth. Plus their currency isn’t the world reserve currency.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  354. WPaws says:

    So I would be very surprised if Chinese GDP isn’t at least twice as high as US GDP in 2050. My expectation is that it will more likely be three times as big.

    Be prepared to be very surprised. The odds are by 2050 or sooner, the China we know will have fragmented into three parts.

  355. KA says:
    @Lot

    IQ is a psychological variable and polygenic . Blood pressure and heights are physiological variables and polygenic . All 3 are more responsive to environmental manipulation . IQ can change in life time by 20 points or so from early intervention .

    Recent post election phenomena have shown the depth of the stupidity among the Trump supporters
    Emotion has sliced and diced their IQ tapestry into stupid chunks . American falling so easily for propaganda shows the poor quality of the intelligence , the emotional barrier to using the intelligence and the inability of the intelligence to deliver anything of substantiate nature . IQ doesn’t matter so much if the society cant harvest it and allow it to flourish .

    Does accepting the vacuous claim on WMD makes it possible for us believe that Dinosaur walked on earth side by side with human ? Does the regurgitated lies about Russia Gate make us believe that Non-Russia Gate has deprived Trump the expected win ?
    Does the imposed social constrains on thinking as cultivated partisanly by CNN and FOX deprive us the capacity to question ,think alternative ,explore other variables? It does.
    Does this constrain then flow into the class room where we dont question teacher because of fear of ridicule ? It does .In the process we end up with poor understanding of mathematics physics biology and also of world history .

    IQ cant be compartmentalized . A healthy culture allows a student to question Einestein and also allows to question the anchors of TV , media columnist, city alderman ,historians ,religious contradictions , inconsistencies in the dominant social political economic and philosophical narratives.

    IQ isn’t something that is stored in the upper shelf of a warehouse .It is dynamic and is passed from one to next regeneration by behaviorally and by genetics .Environment with or without epigenetic add to that complexity .

  356. Chinaman says:
    @Tyler Durden

    That the Chinese never discovered anything–not even Australia–is evidence of the profound lack of curiosity in the Chinese population.

    Well, you do have more important things to worry about when you are pushing against the Malthusian frontier. What did the British discovered during the dark ages ? I will also say that it is not terribly inquisitive for the Brits to send its worst to the Australian frontier just so to purge those deleterious genes from the gene pool. I don’t think the Europeans thought anything of the Brits before the industrial revolution. The last 1000 years since the fall of the Song dynasty to the Mongolians has been China’s dark ages. Extrapolating from the past would have led you to make very wrong conclusions about the rise and fall of nations in history. Every nations and race will have its time.

    • Replies: @songbird
  357. KA says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Just because you had not been deluged with Chinese propaganda from early age means the Western propaganda about western achievements, discovery ,navigation, and mapping are correct.

  358. Z-man says:

    Ah, the world of 1950, when the Anglo American empire was at it’s peak and Europeans ruled most of the world with their culture and religion held in highest esteem and the Judeo Zionists hadn’t completely infested this great civilization and taken almost complete control.
    I WANT TO GO BACK TO THAT!!
    Russia must be nurtured due to it’s overwhelming Aryan blood and advanced military & ‘Nuke’ assets. Iran must be brought back into the Indo European fold. Immigration of non whites must be halted into the 1st World. China must be thwarted at every turn and must be forced to pay reparations for the coronavirus plague which was made in CHINA!
    And finally: WE MUST DEFEAT THE JEWS AND SUBJUGATE ALL OTHERS AS BEFORE. (Evil grin)

    • Disagree: GomezAdddams
    • Replies: @Chinaman
    , @Abelard Lindsey
  359. @Adrian E.

    This is the exact point a Chinese expert mentioned in a video about the 2035 plan. If Chinese per capita reaches 25,000$ China would be #1 without doing anything. The Chinese market will attract most of the so called American allies now.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  360. nsa says:

    GDP is a meaningless concept. One society produces one trillion dollar units of reverse mortgages, another society produces one trillion yuan units of trashy widgets, and yet another society produces one trillion ruble units of irreplaceable oil. Are these disparate products measured in disparate synthetic units subject to valid comparison using the nitwit GDP idea…..an idea so stupid only an economist or a college professor could accept it? GDP might as well stand for Gross Dumpster Product.

  361. Mitleser says:
    @128

    In the case of the USA, it was mainly just shifting population growth from one coast to another.

  362. @Zarathustra

    Asians are openly racists. What does that tell you about the chances of a take over by the Jews? Or half Jews? Holohoast has no affect on them just fyi.

    • Replies: @Zarathustra
  363. Mitleser says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    How does this expert explain that Australia is supporting the anti-China campaign of the USA despite the importance of the PRC market for the prosperity of Australia?

    The importance of Chinese market should not be overstated.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  364. songbird says:
    @Chinaman

    Every nations and race will have its time.

    Andamanese master-race confirmed!

    I have been saying it all along: we are pawns of the Andamanese. That is why traces of their DNA can be found in Latin America – they were there first, moving the ancestors of the Amerinds there, on their spaceships. Just as they no doubt created modern Europeans and the Chinese, through breeding experiments.

    • Replies: @Chinaman
  365. @Mitleser

    Australia is probably the only country that will follow American orders to the death. I have never seen a country that commits economic suicide like Australia just did in the last year. It is like USA has total control of it’s govt and media. I personally don’t see any Asian countries doing the same, or European ones of any importance. Well, maybe UK.

    Remember, most doesn’t mean all. You will always have nut cases like Australia. Australia is hoping RECP will relieve what the Chinese did in the last year, but they forgot how much control the Chinese SOEs has, how high of a percentage comes from orders by the SOEs.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  366. @Zarathustra

    They are self efficient in rice and wheat. But meat and beans for tofu they have to import. Their pork production has been hurt really badly by the swine flus through their herds. These are all problems they recognize and are trying to solved.

  367. David Goldman has been writing a lot about China recently. I agree with his prediction that China’s economy will be 2-3 times bigger than ours in 30 years. For one thing, most people going into the hard science and engineering (such as materials science, not IT) are Chinese. Second, they don’t have the “woke” BS that the West seems to be increasingly infested with. Third, both the U.S. and China have roughly the same amount of debt. The difference is where the money is going. In China, the money is going into infrastructure and productive capacity (e.g. semiconductor fabs). In the U.S., the money is going into entitle programs (social security, etc.) and social welfare. If both societies crash, which one will be able to rebuild?

  368. Mitleser says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    No European countries will rely as much on the Chinese market as Australia, ergo it will be cheaper for them to oppose China and Chinese companies.

    And that is what they will do.

    It is like USA has total control of it’s govt and media.

    That applies to the Anglosphere and to a lesser degree, to the EU.

  369. @Astuteobservor II

    Every race is racists. Strong races are open about it, weak races try to be mum about it.
    Jews are not a race. Hebrew were one time race. Today’s Jews are conspiracy.
    Jewish women did practice “Esther principle”. They did marry Influential people, nobility, and people in government When they resided in goy countries. Than mothers brought up the children as Jews.
    Today Jews are all mixed race. The reason of Higher IQ of Jews is by natural selection of marrying exceptional goy people not so much from original Hebrew race.
    Jews are not a race. Jews are mongrels. But selected mongrels with elevated abilities.
    It would be naive to think that they cannot do it with Chinese.

  370. @Mitleser

    Well, I guess we will see who is right. Time will tell. Cause we are talking about a future China with 25,000$ per capita GDP in 2035 or 2030. Not the current China.

    And remember, it is not about dependency. It is the question of do you want to missed out on the biggest consumer market by that point.

    Imagine a Soviet Russia with a bigger economy than USA, at some point in the future reaching 2x or 3x. How do you tackle that?

    IMO, if China can keep RECP going, even loosing the entirety of EU would be OK. A Chinese expert was saying that even if China is completely isolated now by the west, it will still be OK. Instead of taking 10 years to reach their goal, it will just take 20 or 30 years. But their goals will be reached. And that is their worst case scenario.

  371. @Zarathustra

    I actually think they cannot do it. Not if they insist on calling their offsprings as Jews. They would need to identify themselves as Hans. But that wouldn’t be taking control of China but being assimilated into the Chinese society. China has a lot of experience assimilating outsiders. They would need to call themselves Chinese, not Jewish Chinese to be accepted.

    Very very different than in the West.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  372. I have similar thoughts on this subject. They would definitely reach 2x nominal GDP by 2050. 3x is not a problem. Here are a few factors that might be in their favor.

    1. As countries with high IQ becomes richer, they become more attractive for people from other countries to migrate to.

    2. As more research is being done there, more talent from abroad will join them instead of the U.S. In some cases, it is just due to shear strength of their research program. The U.S. is no longer alone in poaching world talent.

    3. Due to Covid and mishandling by the U.S., currency devaluation for the next few years is almost a certainty. The Chinese, this time around, have not followed the lead of the U.S. and printed down their currency. They did not need it. The Yuan will stengthen against the dollar, which will change nominal GDP without any underlying change in economies.

  373. Chinaman says:
    @Z-man

    China must be thwarted at every turn and must be forced to pay reparations for the coronavirus plague which was made in CHINA!

    Duh…you might have better luck with the Italians. the epidemic started in Spain or America at least before SEPTEMBER 2019. As to subjugating others, get your own house in the order first and don’t hide like a coward when you hear there is a BLM riot …

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-italian-study-shows-idINKBN27V0KH

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science-idUSKBN23X2HQ

    Mr Unz, you might want to reconsider your bioattack hypothesis again with this new discovery.

    • Replies: @Z-man
    , @Ron Unz
  374. @Mitleser

    ‘Better off thanks to China’: German companies double down on resurgent giant

    German industrial robot-maker Hahn Automation plans to invest millions of euros in new factories in China over the next three years, keen to capitalise on an economy that’s rebounding more rapidly than others from the COVID-19 crisis. “If we want to grow with the Chinese market, we have to manufacture on the ground,” Chief Executive Frank Konrad said of the investment drive, intended to skirt Chinese export hurdles in what Beijing views as a strategic sector.

    “Our goal is to make up to 25% of our sales in China by 2025,” he told Reuters, up from roughly 10% now. But while the Chinese recovery may be good news for companies like Hahn, it is complicating efforts by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to diversify trade relations and become less dependent on Asia’s rising superpower.

    Despite Berlin’s concerns, German industry is deepening ties with China, which battled the pandemic with stricter measures than other countries, moved out of a first lockdown earlier and saw demand rebound more quickly. Olaf Kiesewetter, CEO of car sensor supplier UST in Thuringia in eastern Germany, shares the same ambition of making 25% of sales in China.

    “We clearly notice that China has come out of the crisis with force,” he told Reuters, adding that China had already become UST’s biggest export market outside the European Union a couple of years ago, accounting for 15% of sales. “Without China, our business in the third quarter wouldn’t have been so good. So there is no doubt that we’re better off thanks to China.”

    Such shifts towards greater reliance on the Chinese market run counter to Berlin’s trade diversification drive, which can be traced back to the Chinese takeover of Bavarian robotics firm Kuka in 2016 – a step described by German officials as a wake-up call to start viewing China as a serious competitor.

    CHINA ‘EMERGING STRONGER’

    Yet the same realities facing Konrad and Kiesewetter this year are playing out more widely, and the two countries have become more intertwined in some ways. In terms of top destinations for German exports by value, China overtook France in the first nine months of 2020 and came close to the United States, data from the Federal Statistics Office compiled for Reuters showed.

    A senior official told Reuters that given the latest trade and growth trends, China was likely to overtake the United States by the end of the year, to become number one. China’s share of overall German exports rose to nearly 8% in the Jan-Sept period, from roughly 7% a year earlier, according to the data. China is also Germany’s top supplier, with its share of German imports rising to more than 11% from below 10%.

    In the near term, at least, China is looking stronger than many countries in the West. Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, is reeling under a second wave of COVID-19 and its economy is forecast to shrink by a record 6% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. China is expected to be the only major economy to report growth this year, with a projected expansion rate of 1.9%.

    Germany is expected to rebound in 2021, yet its projected growth of 4.2% still lags the IMF’s global forecast of 5.2% and is around half of China’s projected 8.2%. “We’re observing that China is emerging stronger from the crisis, at least for now,” said Stefan Mair, one of the masterminds behind a strategy paper published by the BDI industry association last year which encouraged Berlin and Brussels to toughen their approach towards Beijing.

    “China has become even more important for Germany in economic terms since the start of the year,” said Mair, who has headed the SWP political think-tank since October.

    [MORE]

    The disruptions caused by the pandemic are exposing Europe’s dependencies in certain areas.

    In September, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told Reuters that Germany must become less dependent on Asian suppliers in areas such as medical precursors and that Europe as a whole should try to diversify its trade relations.

    But that’s easier said than done.

    In an example of the complexities, efforts by the German government to support the local production of medical face masks following the first wave of the pandemic had a mixed success.

    Peter Haas from the Suedwesttextil business association said Berlin’s push didn’t lead to a domestic and sustainable market for medical masks because the plan focused on funding investment and did not include purchase guarantees.

    “After the initial panic, the public sector in particular turned its back on local producers again and now buys protection masks at the lowest price – and that’s often from China.”

    An economy ministry spokesman said competition rules of the EU single market did not allow purchase guarantees. But he added Berlin was nonetheless confident of reaching its goal of supporting the local production of seven billion masks this year.

    But while Chinese demand might have helped many companies weather the pandemic, some still face the kind of obstacles that German officials complain give China an unfair advantage, with Beijing’s hybrid model of mixing a state-controlled economy with private-sector activity.

    Hahn Automation, for example, is facing export hurdles for its “Made in Germany” machines as Beijing has singled out industrial robots as one of the areas of special interest in its industrial strategy titled “Made in China 2025”.

    “China is cordoning itself off without mercy,” said CEO Konrad. “It wants to bring a large part of added value in the area of automation and industrial robots into its own country.”

    This leaves Hahn Automation, which is based in the western German town of Rheinboellen and makes machines for the auto and healthcare sectors, little choice but to shift parts of its production to China, Konrad added. “It’s impossible to ignore China because its market and growth opportunities are simply too big,” said Mair of SWP. “But most German firms are well aware they are not doing themselves a favour if they put all their eggs in one basket.”

    Nonetheless, to broaden production options in Asia, German firms are eyeing alternatives such as Indonesia or Vietnam, said Friedolin Strack, head of the BDI’s foreign trade department. But he cautioned: “It will probably take three to five years before we can tell how successful German companies have been in their efforts to become less dependent on China.

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27Y0K1

    • Replies: @Mitleser
  375. Z-man says:
    @Chinaman

    Coward this. BLM knows not to come near me.
    They along with the Jew run antifa scum should be eliminated by all means necessary.

  376. Chinaman says:
    @songbird

    The Andamanese blurs the line between Homo Erectus and Homo Sapiens. I reserve the term race for genotypes above 105 IQ.

  377. annamaria says:
    @Dmitry

    Since the discussion is about China today, here is food for your thoughts:
    “Bigger than you thought: China’s contribution to scientific publications and its Impact on the global economy,” by Xie & Freeman: https://economics.harvard.edu/files/economics/files/bigger_than_you_thought_chinas_contribution_journal_china_and_world_economy_xie-freeman_jan2019.pdf

    China’s contribution to global science based on the quantity and quality of Chinese articles in physical sciences, engineering and mathematics3 journals relative to the total number of articles in those journals… Chinese contributions account for 36 percent of global scientific publications. …

    To the extent that increased production of scientific knowledge enables a country to move up the value-added chain in production and innovation, we would expect to see China’s increased contribution to knowledge to be accompanied or followed by increases in its share of world output in “high-tech” industries and in innovation.

  378. @RichardTaylor

    Limiting factors of China:

    – shaky institutions for protecting property rights and markets
    – political system that could veer off in any number of dangerous directions
    – widespread corruption, far beyond the West
    – same problem with truly breakthrough innovations that all Asian countries have

    China is able to get richer only because the US exists. We provide the basic institutions that even they rely on. No one will ever trust their billions to a Chinese bank. We more or less prop up the global system they need.

    – Capital flight is mitigated by China’s productivity.

    – China’s political system is stable enough for its long term development.

    – China’s corruption is not much worse than West’s institutionalized corruption, and its damage is more than compensated by its productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

    – The notion that Asians cannot innovate is an old dogmatic view. China is becoming one of the most innovative nation in the world.

    Like all Eastern Asian countries, the U.S. market helped China’s economy to take off. However, China is transitioning into an economy based on domestic consumption. The role of U.S. market is diminishing by the day.

  379. @Smith

    So you don’t get it… It doesn’t matter than they were created in Japan if they DO NOT display Japanese as heroes. That counts for profits – but NOT soft power.
    You bring up Ryu from Street Fighter??? He looks like a dark haired white male. NOTHING about him looks Japanese. You ask any average person who played that game growing up and they have no clue. They have white blond characters – Indian looking characters – Chun Li doesn’t even look Chinese in the face.
    Even some Japanese companies are made to sound like Anglo. Would anyone think Sharp or Pioneer.

    I don’t blame Japanese at all… They know there was still white anger against them – so if they wanted to sell to the white world you couldn’t be Japanese. There is a reason some games were made for the Japanese market had different types of heroes than ones made for the international market.

    Now – Sony has even shifted it’s videogame decision making to North America. What are the most popular games now? War/killing games. Fantasy killing games. Sports games. they do NOT feature Japanese heroes. They cater to the western mind. Japanese do make games for Asia featuring Asian characters – but those games are not very popular in the west. Ask any marketer and they will tell you that.

    Go watch western movies from the 70’s and 80’s when Japan was in the ascendancy. They mocked Japanese and portrayed them as brutal and as corporate raiders – but docile towards whites. Go watch the film from the 1970’s “Taking of Pelham 1,2,3” and see how the Japanese metro engineers are mocked. There are many many more examples. Japanese become “the good Asians” again once China became “a threat”. “Super Shiguerio” would NOT have sold like Super Mario. Zelda (yes Link is the hero) would have have sold as well with Japanese as the main characters. Again – go ask Nintendo’s own marketing department.

    Mulan is based on a Chinese character and is supposed to still be Chinese in the Disney version. You are off the rails – I’m sorry.

  380. @noname27

    Well then 2050 won’t exist at all… But you do know that predicting when that would happen makes you a false prophet by biblical standards??? “no man knows the time…..”

    • Replies: @noname27
  381. @Whitewolf

    Outsourcing from the west is old news… That is not the new economy. Most western investment into China is for R&D talent now.

    Fact is China is home to more Fortune Global 500 companies than the US now. The world has changed…

    You are right about what happened when Communism took over in China. But that time is past now. There was a time when the finest goods were those from China… yes “fine China” meant something centuries ago.

  382. Mitleser says:
    @Blinky Bill

    “Better off” in the short-term, worse off in the long-term.
    That is why government will remain wary of the Chinese side.

    Such shifts towards greater reliance on the Chinese market run counter to Berlin’s trade diversification drive, which can be traced back to the Chinese takeover of Bavarian robotics firm Kuka in 2016 – a step described by German officials as a wake-up call to start viewing China as a serious competitor.

    The CEO and hundreds of workers were fired after the takeover.
    The new Chinese owners seems to have been primarily interested in tech transfer.

  383. Barr says:
    @Lot

    I will add few more ideas to it. ( KA-366) Learning the uses of vocabulary can increase the space for thoughts . Like simple motor movements can make masteri(ng the more difficult more complex movements easier and possible..Intelligence can work same way . It is like building the math skill or puzzle solving skills over time through learning less challenging math and puzzles.

    We need to remember that Newton or Einstein might have required 160 or more in IQ but an IQ of 100-110 would be enough to understand the theory and master it .

    When we prevent the free flow of relevant and related thoughts whether in political social contexts or in the pulpit or in classes, we are preventing emergencies of the skills on which future skills— ,more thinking abilities ,reasoning and logic could be built.

    The mind bears some attributes of muscle and mechanical skills , It can lose its powers unless used or never learn .
    People left from early life away from social emotional environmental stimuli never learn later simple skills necessary for survival .Components that undergird the IQ have decayed beyond possibility of recovery.

    Then there are few other kind of relevances . A certain height or blood pressure value is essential to live, function independently or stay productive . We don’t need 6 feet or even 5 feet height . We might have found it advantageous in a forest dealing with predatory animals for plucking the fruits from the tree branches .
    General IQ of 90 is enough to survive ,build society, maintain law and orders,apply justice ,compose music folklores stories ,share empathy, and save for future, maintain factories running .
    Additional IQ can take us to the moon and the deep down the ocean, but we can do without them.
    Our achievements may look spectacular but we already have achieved spectacularly with 90 IQ . We don’t appreciate it because it’s manifestation is a commonplace .

    War,propaganda,superstition,fundamentalism,racism,poverty and fear ,insecurity can easily destroy those commonplace enduring achievements .

  384. @Tyler Durden

    And the iPhone was designed in the UK as long suspected and revealed in a UK court case when a Chinese company attempted to take the UK firm over. The original declared activity of the form was video chips.

  385. Ron Unz says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    I actually think they cannot do it. Not if they insist on calling their offsprings as Jews. They would need to identify themselves as Hans. But that wouldn’t be taking control of China but being assimilated into the Chinese society.

    The historical evidence certainly favors your analysis. After all, China did have a significant Jewish community in the past, which gradually assimilated and became almost entirely Chinese, just about the only major historical case that comes to mind.

    It’s the old test of the unstoppable ethnic force meeting the immovable assimilative object, and the assimilative object (China) won.

    Another factor might be that Jewish women have traditionally married into local elites, but as far as I know, the overwhelming majority of Jewish/Chinese couples involve a Chinese wife.

  386. Mefobills says:
    @utu

    Nice job UTU,

    Allow me to take you a little deeper.

    The liberalized U.S approach to economics, is actually the Jewish/English system imported into the U.S. by 1912.

    Japan was secretly running industrial capitalism model, which was the American system of Economy. Peshine Smith carried the American System to Japan. Japan also observed Frederick List’s operations in Germany.

    The Manchurian rail-road engineers were ensconsed at MITI, and they ran the industrial capitalist model while in Manchuria, during the war.

    At the plaza accords in 1985, the dollar was depreciated against the yen in a quid pro quo scheme.

    As I am want to do, I always follow the Jew. Dual shitizen Stanley Fischer was at IMF at the time, and likely the architect of Japan busting out their fellow citizens.

    This busting out was basically a property bubble. (People that watch the movie will figure it out.)

    The U.S. was being hammered by Japanese INC. in the 80’s, and the credit guidance windows scheme/industrial capitalism of Japan was exposed. Industrial Capitalism is the pumping of state credit into industry and the commons.

    So, everybody here who keeps saying the China is copying Japan need to incorporate this historical lesson. Japan learned industrial capitalism from America. America has since lost the American System of Economy, and is now Globo-Homo, or the Jewish British finance capitalism system.

    As a side bar… China has state banks. So, Karlin is making a fundamental error and comparing apples to oranges. China can pump up their debt and then erase said debts. China has already erased debts, especially back in the 90’s in order to get a quasi MFN status under Bill Clinton’s regime. Debt instruments are housed in a state bank, and are within reach of the law.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
  387. Ron Unz says:
    @Chinaman

    https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-italy-timing/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-italian-study-shows-idINKBN27V0KH

    Mr Unz, you might want to reconsider your bioattack hypothesis again with this new discovery.

    Not really. The new scientific report from Italy doesn’t seem to make any logical sense:

    Italy’s first COVID-19 patient was detected on Feb. 21 in a little town near Milan, in the northern region of Lombardy.

    But the Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show that 11,6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020, had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

    So according to this study, over 11%(!!) of a seemingly random-sample of Italians had already been infected by Covid-19 “well before February,” when the first visible case was detected.

    If a pretty substantial fraction of all Italians had already been infected by a very highly-contagious disease but no one in the country had even noticed, well maybe the Flu Hoaxers have been correct all along, and Covid-19 is almost entirely harmless.

    Perhaps you have a logical explanation for that bizarre result, but my guess is that the particular antibody-detection method used is generating a huge number of false-positives. Either that, or the samples were somehow contaminated.

    • Replies: @utu
  388. Mefobills says:
    @Mefobills

    P.S.

    I was trying to flesh out the Stanley Fischer angle. It was in an email conversation between Bill Still and Richard Werner, where Werner dropped the dime. Bill reported it in one of his videos, which may have since been memory holed by youtube.

    Fischer had inputs into the IMF at the time (and/or world bank) from his perch as being an influential money -jew.

    It was bizarre for Japan’s elite to thrust a debt hook into the mouths of the average Japanese citizen, to then effect civilizational change.

    Only outside force could make the Japanese behave that way.

    • Thanks: utu
  389. Ron Unz says:

    The recent Pepe Escobar thread about the RECP agreement contained a provocative comment, beginning with the following couple of paragraphs:

    If you take a broad view then it appears that the world is being divided into two major blocs–the Chinese bloc and the Israeli bloc. I don’t say ‘American’ because it is Israel that makes the decisions and the groups need to be named after their respective leaders.

    All countries in the world have already joined one of these two sides, or will have to make up their minds soon.

    https://www.unz.com/pescobar/rcep-set-to-supercharge-the-new-silk-roads/#comment-4298610

    Although I tend to disagree with elements of his analysis, it’s probably closer to reality than what you get in the NYT/WSJ.

    One reason I doubt such global bloc-formation is that I think the competence and stability of the West in general and America in particular is declining at such a rapid rate even just a few years may be enough to totally invalidate such predictions.

    Meanwhile, it’s sad to see The Economist go entirely insane. Their current cover apparently endorses the new Cold War against China, with their lead editorial seeming to argue that launching it was one of the very few things Trump did right. Their first few sentences:

    The achievement of the Trump administration was to recognise the authoritarian threat from China. The task of the Biden administration will be to work out what to do about it.

    Donald Trump’s instinct was for America to run this fight single-handed. Old allies were henchmen, not partners. As Joe Biden prepares his China strategy (see article) he should choose a different path.

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/11/19/the-china-strategy-america-needs

    I’ve been a subscriber for over 40 years, going back when their total circulation was under 50K, and given the mortality tables, probably longer than 99.9% of their current readers and almost all of their current staff. I stopped reading their issues after they supported the crazy Iraq War in 2002, but I still never would have believed that they’d get on Trump’s China Cold War bandwagon. The whole situation with the Western MSM really is very disheartening.

    https://www.unz.com/runz/the-long-decline-of-the-london-economist/

  390. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    The Italian paper (pdf)

    Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0300891620974755

    Total 956 samples of blood collected from Sept to March were tested for antibodies IgG+ and IgM+. Number of positive for each month:

    Sept 14.2%
    Oct 16.3%
    Nov 9.5%
    Dec 7.4%
    Jan 2.8%
    Feb 20%

    If samples are representative the 15% infection rate in Sep-Oct just does not make sense when compared with prevalence measured in Many-July 2020::

    Between May 25 and July 15, the Italian Ministry of Health accomplished a large SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study in a representa- tive sample of 64,660 individuals. A global prevalence rate of 2.5% was reported, with a peak in the Lombardy region (7.5%) and in particular in Bergamo Province (24%)

    Though the authors claim:

    Therefore the geographic distribution and timing of the SARS-CoV-2–positive individuals identified in our study closely mirrors the incidence of COVID-19 officially registered in Italy.

    The term ‘circulation of virus’ is used. I think authors realize that their data imply a sub R0=1 spread over long time period that is hard to explain.

    No papers citing this publication have been published yet.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @Chinaman
  391. @Tyler Durden

    Only the ignoramus believes in the “innovation” meme.
    Most of engineering has always been about refining and optimizing existing processes. If retards had had their ways, every single person on earth would have to learn binary calculation again. Inventions do happen, but not as often as the ignorant masses like to think.

    The West had a good start due to the need to drive the colonial war machine back then. The constant medieval warfare helped too.

    But now is the age of IT, and you don’t need war to incentivize maximum development. Not yet, at least.

    If anything, China, Russia and India will come to dominate IT, while the West will be too busy producing more trashy, perverted, pedophilic entertaintment products while it’s abandoned engineers and inventors go East so their lifework doesn’t go down the drain. Which is exactly what happened with the Chinese traffic infanstructure story. Too bad, the Chinese have now learned the last lession of efficient logistics, haha. And all of them except the (((West))) are investing in Fusion with actual tangible efforts, not just mouthbreathing. Probably because they actually want to move forward, while the (((West))) can’t stand cheap electrical bills for the goyim, hehe

    Waiting for muttmerica to launch a nuke so the rest of the world can gang up on them, the entire island monkey culture network and Pissrael, then to pound them to extinction. The rest of the world will improve immensely.

    • Replies: @Daemon
  392. i did ctrl+f for “hukuo” and nothing.

    y’all know what it is right?

    • Replies: @Daemon
  393. Mefobills says:
    @mal

    Chinese are simply ahead of the curve as usual. Regardless, there is no alternative.

    First: China selling negative rate bonds to Europeans is not the same as an internal (to the Chinese economy) rate.

    Second, there are always alternatives.

    Negative rates are a bad idea:

    https://sovereignmoney.site/negative-interest

    Only in a bank-money regime would somebody dream up negative rates. China doesn’t really have a private bank-money regime, their state bank system is ultimately in control by CCP.

    China routinely releases Yuan debts, which essentially puts Yuan’s into circulation debt free. The former debt based Yuan is no longer forced to be recalled to its debt instrument. It is released from debt obligation, hence is debt free.

    One of the tricks that China uses to expand its money supply in proportion to economic growth is targeting industry they want to adopt, and then releasing debts for the laggards. Eventually an industrial champion will emerge that is world-beating.

    Remember the “Ghost Cities.” I used to go onto zero hedge and explain to all the nimrod’s there that China was simply front loading their economy with Yuans by spending on the cities, and besides the future would fill said cities up.

    Three birds … one stone. Gain industrial competence, grow your economy, and introduce new debt free money simultaneously.

    Chinese are not stupid. When I listen to globo-homo talking about negative rates, infinity QE, and all kinds of other finance trickery, it makes me hang my head in shame. My western compatriots are either ignorant, or suffer moral turpitude.

  394. Ron Unz says:
    @utu

    The Italian paper (pdf)…Total 956 samples of blood collected from Sept to March were tested for antibodies IgG+ and IgM+. Number of positive for each month…If samples are representative the 15% infection rate in Sep-Oct just does not make sense when compared with prevalence measured in Many-July 2020

    Thanks. That’s exactly why I always put basic logic ahead of supposedly peer-reviewed scientific journal articles and often disregard the latter.

  395. @Levtraro

    It isn’t at all true though. Britain’s average IQ by 2100 will be at least 110.

  396. Daemon says:
    @manginacidaire

    That’s because you spelled it wrong you moron.

    What are you trying to say, that the Chinese aren’t congregating like the Japanese into one giant megacity as per the stereotype therefore somehow they won’t reach their GDP targets?

  397. Daemon says:
    @HeebHunter

    I’ve always wondered what type of person chooses to stay at what passes for zerohedge nowadays.
    With his comment, I’ve finally realized. It’s the 110 IQ Crowd. Smart enough to be disdainful of normies, parrot facts and notice obvious trends, but not smart enough to assess the wider picture.

    • Replies: @HeebHunter
  398. @Ron Unz

    It’s literally Orwellian. War with EastAsia we have always been at. The economist was the greatest proponent of globalisation, the greatest opposer of protectionism, the greatest scorner of keeping manufacturing in the West, and now in a mere few years – the opposite. Apparently they couldn’t extrapolate that Chinese GDP would exceed the West until it did.

    A few years ago, just prior to Brexit, Xi visited Britain to thunderous acclaim. A quick google for the Economist opinion on that was that they were editorially (ie Bagehot) all for it with minor caveats. Britain itself hoped to be China’s best friend in the whole wild world.

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2015/09/26/the-osborne-doctrine

    • Agree: Ron Unz, GomezAdddams
  399. @Ron Unz

    The idea that blocks are formed like it was with the cold war is fantasy dreamed up from people on this site with idea of racial solidarity and the notion that the West marches to the drumbeat from the same ideology. Let me elaborate.

    When the cold war happened, the West had an existential crisis. The USSR was resurgent, though the block overall still was much weaker compared to the U.S. led order. Western Europe was militarily threatened. This drove NATO members to cast aside economic and nationalistic issues for the sake of survival.

    When the USSR collapsed, Russia was no longer a threat to Western Europe, though Eastern European nations still struggled to get out of the grasp of the Russian sphere of influence. The nightmare for the U.S. was and still is if Russia would join up with Wester Europe. This entity has the economy of the Western Europeans, the added geographical span of Russia and the strength of Russian military. It will also have Russian oil. For this reason, Russia, in the eyes of the U.S. led order, will always play the villain. There is no way Russia will be allowed to join up with the Europeans as long as the U.S. has anything to say about it.

    The Chinese do not threaten Europe the way USSR used to. As the Chinese economy grow, it decimated many low to mid European countries while providing a giant and growing single market which France and Germany salivate over. There is nothing to unify NATO anymore and the U.S. is doing things against the interests of the Western European countries like opposing the Nordstream pipelines. NATO had became a way for the U.S. to control the Europeans without providing any political benefits in return.

    Now, if the U.S. were the undisputed economic elephant in the room like we were in the fifties, the Europeans would still fall in line. This is already no longer the case. The Chinese has reached the same size in their retail market as the U.S. and will be significantly bigger compared to the U.S. in a decade. As the Chinese climb the economic ladder and started making chips and passenger planes, we would decline relative to them. So it is not just China gaining ground, but we would be losing it as they eat into our high end manufacturing pie. With 5G which will enable self driving cars, even our auto industry will be threatened. Without any ideological threat to unit the “West”, it is every country for itself now. The Europeans, continuing their decline, is led by Germany and France determined to form a block out of Western Europe. This block will trade with China and transfer technology if it is in their own interests. The Koreans and Japanese will pursue similar strategy for their own respective countries. The U.S. is so weak that Japan and Korea are allowed to join RCEP. If we were more in control of the world, this would not happen.

    Our economic heft no longer dwarf the Chinese, we are left with four areas of strength. Our military is still stronger; our reserve currency allow us to cut off smaller countries and to print money out of thin air and the cost partially born by other countries. Our universities are still the best and attracts the best talent. The entertainment industry is currently unrivaled.

    On the military front, the scary thing is that the Chinese are pumping out way more ships with a budget a fraction of ours. They lack only a handful of things now, namely, jet engines, nuclear subs and carriers. They are making very rapid progress in all these areas and in a decade, they will catch up to the West technologically. In two decades, they will be, for all practical purposes, a peer to the U.S. In the mean time, our military is not buying us much in our competition with the Chinese.

    Their universities are still behind but catching up fast. With enough money and a drive by the country to do more research of all types, more brain power from the West will be sucked into China. In two decades, they will still not quite be a peer of the U.S., but heads and shoulders above all other countries. If you look at the U.S. education system, it was the Germans that were in the lead in scientific discovery. There was a time a hundred years ago, an American getting a PhD in a U.S. university would not be permitted to teach in any U.S. university. One had to get the PhD in Europe to do that. But it never stopped the ascend of the U.S. all that time. In time, with a lot of effort, the Chinese will have a University system that will rival the US. The bigger unresolved problem is that the Chinese, all their technical people can read English, have access to our research. The U.S., with our technical people having limited Chinese reading skills, are not able to access their publications if they are in Chinese only. So in the future, there will be a one sided transparency to their advantage.

    Due to the Covid and undisciplined government before Covid, we will be printing large amount of dollars in the coming years, maybe decades. At the end, this will end the U.S. reserve currency status as other nations will be unwilling to shoulder our spending. In two decades, the Chinese Yuan could begin to rival the U.S. as reserve currency. At that point, we will see a currency defense by the U.S. that will result in our currency no longer the reserve currency.

    Hollywood is the only area we will maintain our edge for the next couple of decades, with a large and growing audience in China, it could potentially be co-0ped to spread message at least benign to the CCP if the money is there, so it is unclear if we have a win even in this case. In the mean time, it is poisoning the American thought pr0cess. I can’t think of a movie, especially the block buster ones, that do not toe the line with all the political left ideology.

    With this evolving power structure, the West, with no threat for its survival, will pursue its own interest and there won’t be any unified block to speak of. The rapid decline of the U.S. will reinforce this view for the other members of the “block”. The current struggle between the left and the right, the rich and poor, black and white, will continue well into the future, quickly turning the U.S. focus inward. The next decade or two, for the U.S. will not be pretty as we descend rapidly into chaos and internal strife. The system is so bad that it elected W, Obama and Trump, three of the less than stellar presidents in modern times, with W arguably being the worst president in modern history. We are still not done with our streak. Sleepy Joe is taking the reign.

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
    • Replies: @utu
    , @last straw
    , @Biff
  400. Smith says:
    @showmethereal

    Soft Power is the influence of culture, in this case Japanese culture, NOT the display of specific national character as heroes. One is inspiring, one is pandering. You are deeply mistaken, which is the chinks soft power fail to impress.

    Ryu and Chun Li look distinct Asian, so you are wrong there. No person I know say that Ryu and Chun Li are supposedly “white” characters, so you might recheck your friends. And what’s wrong with having white blond characters or indian? Their existences do not deny the Japanese theme of Street Fighter.

    About western market vs jap market, that’s due to different market taste, and even western marketed jap games still have distinct jap characteristics that make people think this is a jap game.

    Actually the most popular games nowadays are mobile games, and yes, they do feature Japanese heroes and even Japanese cultural tropes. Even the war games have the jap as playable factions (Command and Conquer RA3, Wargame, Advance War), and even western fantasy games have Japanese weapons or samurai/ninja as classes. So again you are wrong there.

    Why should one watch western movies to form an opinion of Japanese? Then again, you are watching western movies to form opinion on them and the chinks, so I cannot blame you there. My advice: watch more Asian movies and broaden your knowledge instead of consuming western propaganda/movies.

    Super Mario & Link & Sonic are not only popular in the West, these characters are popular worldwide, even in China, so how can you explain that? Meanwhile chink characters created by USA are not popular in Asia. You see the cover but ignoring the contents, pretty superficial.

    And Disney Mulan is what americans think chinks are like, the same as Kung Fu Panda. These characters lack the Chinese soul and culture, and are just created to pander to the chinese market, and falling miserably.

    Meanwhile pure American movies like Transformers and even shitty Marvel movies like Cap America and Batman are hit in China, the Chinese market cares about big explosion and action scenes, not shitty attempts to pander/represent.

    The most recent example of Japanese soft power can be seen in the ongoing Latino games festival:

    If you tell me these are Japanese games, I wouldn’t say otherwise.
    Soft power is not just shitty pandering of ethnicity/nationality, but inspiring other nations to FOLLOW your style and culture, and Japan wins at that, much more than China or Korea.

  401. China at 3X US GDP implies that China will be consuming half of all the energy in the world. That would make China incredibly vulnerable to external instability; seems rather unsustainable even if we assume it is possible.

    If China reaches 100% nuclear energy, electric vehicles and electrified infrastructure and automated factories will be very cheap to operate. China believes in AI, so that will help them. Uranium and plutonium will be in high demand and China is already one of the biggest importers of these commodities. Kazakhstan, with the second largest uranium reserves, will be crucial to China’s energy security for at least 100 years. Stable Kazakhstan = Happy China.

    There is a 10% chance China will reach 2-3x US GDP (nominal) by 2050. Massive investment in 1940s technology (nuclear power) is the only way to get there.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  402. utu says:
    @Lake Wobegon

    The U.S. is so weak that Japan and Korea are allowed to join RCEP. If we were more in control of the world, this would not happen.

    RCEP is an ersatz replacement of TPP. It is just about trade.

    https://www.citizen.org/news/the-asian-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-lots-of-hype-but-not-really-a-big-deal/
    RCEP’s actual trade terms are limited in that it does not cover all goods or zero out tariffs and excludes most agricultural goods.
    RCEP’s coverage of the service sector is not comprehensive.
    RCEP does not include the controversial Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) regime.
    RCEP does not set uniform product standards.
    RCEP does not have a procurement chapter.
    RCEP does not address state-owned enterprises.
    RCEP does not have enforceable “digital trade” rules.

    And no, RCEP is not “China writing the rules.” RCEP is not a Chinese initiative, but rather came from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN*). The RCEP final text, which connects the ten ASEAN nations with Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, is based on ASEAN terms.

    • Replies: @Lake Wobegon
  403. @Thulean Friend

    That’s the exact opposite of “supplying demand”. And it shows you how China’s economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don’t even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.

    “Imports surged 13.2% in September, returning to growth from a fall of 2.1% in August and much stronger than expectations for a 0.3% increase. The import strength was broad based for almost all of China’s main trading partners.”

    “ The rise in imports pushed the trade surplus for September down to $37 billion, compared with $58.93 billion in August and lower than an expected $58.00 billion.”

    More at:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-idUSKBN26Y0BR

    So you will be apologising, right?

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
  404. Ron Unz says:
    @Tyler Durden

    China at 3X US GDP implies that China will be consuming half of all the energy in the world. That would make China incredibly vulnerable to external instability; seems rather unsustainable even if we assume it is possible….There is a 10% chance China will reach 2-3x US GDP (nominal) by 2050.

    Well, I doubt you’re the “Tyler Durden” from that ZeroHedge conspiracy-website, but you sound just as idiotic as they do.

    I had the impression that the Neocons bought that website recently, and re-positioned it as a rightwing pro-Israel, anti-China publication, so your name is appropriate.

    One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically pro-Israel Jewish-activists seem to have become fiercely anti-Chinese, as exemplified in the foolish remarks by “Lot” and “AaronB” on this thread.

    I think that’s a strong indicator that they’ve given up any realistic hope of seizing control of China, and since they won’t be able to control it, it’s automatically an enemy of theirs, much like Putin’s Russia. Similar thinking may explain why the elite Western MSM has suddenly turned so fiercely anti-China so quickly.

  405. @Lake Wobegon

    Their universities are still behind but catching up fast. With enough money and a drive by the country to do more research of all types, more brain power from the West will be sucked into China. In two decades, they will still not quite be a peer of the U.S., but heads and shoulders above all other countries.

    Many people do not realize that China already has some of the word’s best academic institutions and R&D programs, and the U.S. has to compete against China for top talents now, not 2 decades later.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01230-x

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01227-6

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01920-1

    • Replies: @Lake Wobegon
  406. @Daemon

    “Huwhites” mostly concentrate around that mark though. Which explains everything, to be quite honest.
    Not violent and instinctual enough for survival.
    Too dumb to go against their elites.
    Just smart enough to suffer.
    LOL!
    They deserve it though. Back to back world war champ, am I right lol!
    Now is the right time to poke those goddamn chinks whom we voluntarily sold all our techs to back then, yee fucking haw!

    • Troll: GeneralRipper
  407. By 2050, China’s GDP will be at least 100 times higher than that of the US because the US will suffer economic collapse due to its preposterous misgovernance. Massive debt, laughable incompetence, lawlessness, and Negro worship: these are not the ingredients of a superpower but of a country that, if it still exists at all, will be vying with Honduras for the second-lowest GDP in the hemisphere after Haiti.

    • Agree: HeebHunter
    • LOL: Ron Unz
  408. IQ is an instrument of white imperialism. How about the proto-villanovans? What happened to them? who cares about them? roughly nobody? What if they had the biggest GDP ever, would anyone even know? USA and China are headed in the same direction as them in the world: soon to be dead and forgotten. Good riddance. I hate GDP’s.

  409. Biff says:
    @Lake Wobegon

    The bigger unresolved problem is that the Chinese, all their technical people can read English, have access to our research. The U.S., with our technical people having limited Chinese reading skills,

    I noticed this when I was attending university thirty years ago, and nothing has changed. Americans in their stupid or stubborn ways refuse to learn languages and cultures outside of their own basketball Jones sports page bubble.
    Dated a Chinese lady who wrote her PhD dissertation in English – it was about a hundred pages long. How many Americans have done the same in Chinese?

  410. @utu

    Yes, RCEP is not as encompassing as, say, TPP, but nevertheless, Eastern and South East Asia forming a trade block without the U.S. is still not in the U.S. interest. While the Chinese did not start RCEP, they will be the dominant player in the block. In time, they may pull in other countries like Russia and other Belts and Roads countries. Since South Korea and Japan, especially Japan, are not sovereign nation in the real sense, the U.S. should be able to stop Japan from doing it if we wanted to. That we did not speak volumes to how weak the U.S. has become.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  411. @last straw

    Yes, they do have some world class universities today. However, if you look at the complete list of top universities, it is still dominated by the U.S. That will change in two decades to at least similar numbers for both countries.

  412. Daemon says:
    @Ron Unz

    A side-effect of the “chutzpahsphere” as Duke of Qin would put it.

    I remember glowering op-eds a few years back about how the Jewish and Chinese nation share many commonalities such as respect for education, family and other superficial comparisons and mealy-mouthed platitudes meant to butter up those “naive” chink marks.
    I don’t see any of those types of articles being written anymore.

    In the beginning it’s all “chini chini, bhai bhai”, then when they think they’ve earned your confidence out comes the knives. It’s the principal reason why the west views any stripe of asian as treacherous and devious, I’m starting to agree with the assessment.

  413. Meena says:
    @Ron Unz

    “ One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically …………of seizing control of “

    Strident and coordinated Islamophibia and Saudi bashing have diminished significantly on Fox and other platforms coinciding with the obsequious prostration of the entire Arab world facing Tel Aviv .

    It worked. Now there is pressure on Pakistan to join the club. That 911 sword hanging over the heads over Pakistan and Saudi have already earned the mafia more than any one sided war could ever have .

  414. @AP

    You’re not taking into account the fact the US is a Black-supremacist country that is committed to Black rule, and to the mind-boggling corruption and incompetence that entails. In economic terms, China might be a larger version of Taiwan or Singapore in the future. The US will be a larger version of Haiti or Venezuela.

  415. EldnahYm says:
    @Lake Wobegon

    There is no threat whatsoever from an east Asian trading bloc. The U.S. has one of the lowest trade-to-GDP ratio of any country in the world, and more than a quarter of that trade is with Mexico and Canada.

    • Replies: @Lake Wobegon
  416. @Sinojxy

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    Creating an (((alien overclass))) is suicidal insanity for any nation, which is exactly what the U.S. has done to itself.

  417. Chinaman says:
    @utu

    Ok, it doesn’t make sense to you so let’s forget about it. Of course, If China made similar claims as you did , the world would cry cover-up.

    Arguments from incredulity and confirmation biases are basic psychological defense when confronted with evidence that are contrary to one’s preconceived notions. Textbook logical fallacies and behavior biases that they name them.

    I always try to be intellectually honest so I would suggest Wuhan, Spain ( prime suspect) and America ( Type A strain) try to replicate the same study and try to establish when the antibodies emerge. More importantly, how their antibodies react to different strains of the virus. Instead of appauding the researchers for finding novel and brilliant ways to get to the truth, Americans like yourself react with hostility and wants to downplay it. How would we ever get to preventing the next outbreak with such attitudes?

    In the interest of science and humanity, I suggest we treat this result with the respect that it deserves.

    But I must thank you for not saying the 959 samples of what must be at least 10000 are all false positives.

    • Replies: @utu
  418. @d dan

    (((Neocons))) are fomenting a war between the US and China. They will not allow a country they cannot dominate to become the world’s leading power. If, as a result, most Americans perish along with the Chinese, that’s a sacrifice they are willing for Americans to make.

  419. utu says:
    @Chinaman

    If an outlier contradicts everything what we know about a given phenomena it must be rejected until further corroborating data. The Italian paper’s result can’t be reconciled with everything we know about this virus, how it spreads and thousand of other empirical data points.

    (1) Virus spreads the fastest when the population is not aware of its occurrence. Italy did not record its first cases until mid February. The paper claims that already in Sept and Oct they found 15% (50 cases) positive prevalence in their sample. These 50 cases would lead to over 60 million infections (more than the total population of Italy) by mid February at the doubling time of 5 days.

    (2). You just can’t have 15% positive prevalence in any sample in September 2019 when average prevalence in Italy in May-July 2020 is under 3%.

    It is understandable that Chinese will grasp for any evidence that contradicts the most popular theories about the virus origins:

    (1) Chinese are dirty and eat disgusting things
    (2) Chinese are inept and let the virus escape from a lab
    (3) Chinese are evil and play with biochemical weapons

    but this singular Italian paper will not change it.

    It would be interesting to find out what possibly went wrong with the paper:

    (1) Italians are inept and let the samples get contaminated
    (2) Italians are corrupt and were bribed by the evil Chinese

    • Replies: @utu
    , @Chinaman
  420. utu says:
    @utu

    Italian study suggesting COVID predates China outbreak sparks scepticism
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-study-suggesting-covid-predates-china-outbreak-sparks-scepticism-idUSKBN27Y1LN

    “Much ado about nothing,” Antonella Viola, professor of general pathology at the University of Padua, told Reuters.

    Both Italian scientists said the antibody test was in-house designed and never validated by other researchers in a peer review.

    “I think we need a really conclusive demonstration that those samples are picking up the COVID-19 virus and that those antibodies were not actually triggered by another virus,” Andrew Preston, reader in microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath, told Reuters.

    • Thanks: Ron Unz, Brás Cubas
  421. @showmethereal

    “Why Do Japanese Characters Look White?”

    I think Smith is right on this one, most kids know that Nintendo and Sony are Japanese and these games are truly an example of Japanese soft power. The characters not “looking Japanese” is irrelevant” as they are cartoons.

    • Replies: @Smith
    , @showmethereal
  422. Smith says:
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Anime characters look white to whites, but they look asian to asian.

    This heightened debate to how Tifa Lockheart looks in the FF7Remake since with modern technology, she looks more asian.

    But ultimately, I think the characters look asian, despite their hair colors (which can be many things).

    It is very hard to argue Ryu or Chun Li from SF look white though.

  423. Rahan says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    What do you think of the Chinese 2035 plan that was just announced? 25,000$ per capita GDP by 2035. 15 years to go from 11000$ to 25000$.

    In fifteen years, at the rate things are going, 25,000$ will have the value of roughly what 11000$ is today. So all China has to do is maintain its current level, basically.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  424. Everyone misuses the term “American Exceptionalism”. It was coined by Seymour Martin Lipset, a poly sci professor at George Mason University. It didn’t mean America was better than other countries, it meant America was different (an exception, exceptional) than other western liberal democracies. Main reasons he gave for this are secular Protestantism, anti-authoritarianism, individualism, and one more I forget. Most similar country to America is Australia.

    • Replies: @HeebHunter
  425. @Johnny Johnny

    Words have consequences, which is why the mutts’ precious 2nd Amendment has been attackes for 100 years with success everytime for the overlords.

    Same as “all men are created equal” dogshit, which completely goes against the republican principles.

    Only a stupid nation can shoot itself like that.

  426. @Rahan

    127% inflation in 15 years? 127% drop in value?

    Wtf? You realized that would mean avg American salary would be 140,000 or more if we go by that logic.

    And if inflation doesn’t matter, the raw increase of 127% over their current avg would matter. Alot.

    • Replies: @Rahan
  427. Wency says:
    @Philip Owen

    Yeah, I imagine that’s why I always heard the term “ditch-diggers” growing up. Plumbing can be complicated and easy to screw up. You actually want someone who can think through these things, especially for bigger projects.

    But it probably is better that any guy you put to work digging ditches with a shovel, all day everyday, not be that smart. Pure, mindless manual labor can be enjoyable a few hours per week for clearing your head and strengthening your soft office-worker body, but any intelligent person who does that kind of labor day after day is likely to be bored out of his mind, disgruntled and dissatisfied. A dumber person won’t be so bored and can stay focused on the task and satisfied enough with his lot — at least he has work.

    Of course, nowadays most jobs like this have been automated or facilitated with powerful equipment. And you actually want as intelligent a person as you can get operating any massive machines that can cause massive damage.

    • Replies: @Daemon
  428. @Europe Europa

    In my view the japanese won ww2 just by showing THE that australians (BASQUE BRITISH) are cowards who deserted by the thousands in malaysia led by their leader, cheif coward maj gen gordon bennet this led to britain losing its colonies not to mention showing the world BASQUE british are cowards who could only win with overwelming suprerority in arms relative to the invaded

    • Troll: Daniel Chieh
  429. @Daniel Chieh

    This suggests that problem is not with the black and Hispanics or even immigration in general. The problem is white liberals.

  430. @Tyler Durden

    Why is there a technological ceiling in 2030? Surely scientific inquiry and technological innovation will continue through out the 21st century and beyond.

    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
  431. @128

    Tesla’s engineers don’t do everything in house. That’s a press/media gimmick. They come up with parameters but have to work with the battery producers.
    BYD by contrast is a little different since batteries were their business. GAC is another manufacturer but they spun off their battery business. Both of them are right up there with LG and Panasonic and in some ways already more innovative. Again – the same reason Tesla started working with CATL.

  432. Agent76 says:

    Nov 23, 2020 The End of Chinese Companies on US Stock Markets?

    The US China economies may be heading towards decoupling as the SEC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, may potentially be banning Chinese companies from the US Stock Markets for failing to comply with auditing rules and regulations.

    • Replies: @last straw
  433. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    And Microsoft is not Japanese and Sony is less and less Japanese. So if the character being irrelevant is true then explain why Superman and Captain America were chose for how they were chosen. You should take a marketing class too… The issue is to make characters appealing. You cannot with a straight face tell me that if Mario was Shigero Miyamoto instead that the game would have been popular overseas.

    in 2020 it might be acceptable – but not in the 80’s when Japan was again “the bad guy”.

    On the flip side – no Japanese film has been as popular in the west as “Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon”. But if that film came out in 2020 – would it be as popular in the US now that China is the bad guy again? If Mulan wasn’t released by Disney would it have even gotten a release in the US (Covid killed the plans but Disney was putting a lot of money into the theater release)? To the first I say probably not – to the second to me I’m sure it would be no.

  434. @showmethereal

    I think Chinese soft power will increase as Westerners become aware of its economic uplift, a great deal of fascination with Japan is due to Whites seeing an alien people with high living standards. Previously many saw Chinese as yellow 3rd worlders.

    This is also why K-Pop has a Western following, because Koreans are seen as civilisational peers.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  435. AaronB says:
    @Ron Unz

    No, Ron, the plan to take over China is still in place, it just works in stages.

    You see, first we had to make China rich (relatively), or it wouldn’t be worth taking over. So Wall Street funneled massive amounts of investment money into China, so that it isn’t an overstatement to say that Wall Street Jews created the modern Chinese success story. Without the cooperation of Wall Street, China would still be a relative backwater.

    We always knew we’d have trouble with the CCP, though. But now that we gave China wealth, we can threaten to take it away from them. You see, now they have something to lose. We built them up so now we can have leverage over them. We can deny them access to world markets and technology. See how that works? Its basic mafia tactics, Ron.

    A poor, ideological China like that of the 1950s would have nothing to lose, and actually demonstrated that with mass human wave charges against Americam troops. Life was cheap. A China like that would have been uncontrollable.

    But a China stripped of ideology and buying into the modern consumerist paradise, is pliable. This China has grown too fat and comfortable to risk it all. The belligerent moves of the CCP are just the thrashing about of a headless chicken, its merely muscle memory from the old ideological days.

    So you see, after the building up phase, we are now in the dealing with the CCP phase, phase 2. Haven’t you read your Protocols, Ron?

    I certainly haven’t given up my dream of controlling China and am counting on that retirement chateau in the southern mountains where all those old Taoist hermits used to live. I have been promised this by the Elders.

    • Replies: @Barr
  436. @Aseansupreme

    What do you mean by “Basque” British?

  437. China has just launched a spacecraft to get rocks from the moon and bring them back to Earth:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/23/science/china-moon-rocks.html

    A country with this capability seems nearly certain to surpass the U.S. in GDP by nominal exchange rates, and will probably do so before 2030.

  438. @Zarathustra

    Ashkenazi Jews were original Middle-Eastern so it was easier to blend into Europe.

    Many Arabs/Iranians, hell even Afghan or Pakistanis could easily blend into European communitiy even today with all the tensions.

    But for 1st gen/2nd gen Jews in China/East-Asia there is no way. The only way is to be mixed, but that would overtime dilute the Jewish identity to a simple facade with no real meaning.

    Over the last century the American/European Jewish community has lost portion of the community into the European mainstream – non-practicing Jews.

    BUT the Ultra-Orthodox/Haredim continue to provide “pure, but secular” Jews for the community to make up for the loses. There is no way the Chinese/East-Asian government to tolerate those Haredim Jewish community.

    So what cards do the Western Jews have:

    – traditional middle-men Jews: Become that what Chinese trading families were in the 18/19th century. Different family-branches in different countries, but with reduced influence.

    – academic/professional-class Jews: Great migration to Eastern Europe and Russia and then what? Keep it quiet as not draw anger from nationalists.

    – 0,1%-Jews: King of the ashes: Stay in Western countries and continue to wield outsized influence of former powerful countries for a while. Of course those Jews have escape-plans in place if things go “Escape from NY”-style. Probably jump ship to E-Europe & Russia.

    – oustanding artistic Jews: No problems for them – especially with those with looks closer to the North-Western European. Just lower you paycheck-expectations and less fawning from the media. Of course attractive Jewish actresses/singers have to spread their legs for Mr Wang, the studio-boss.

    – mediocre artistic Jews: no audience-pulling power no paycheck. It’s simple.

    – Isreal: It will serve for while as a conduit to Wall Str. for the next 2 decade and as long as its’ have tech to sale to East-Asia for the next 30 years. After that it will slowly become a mediocre country with a strange state-ideology.

    The biggest losers will those “dirty” Jews, who could skate unchecked in the last 60 years. You know those millionaires (1 – 10 mio US$ net-worth), who had 0,1%-Jews protecting them and giving them crumbs of big deals – unearned money. Those mediocre Jewish academics peddling globo-homo and other nonsense. The Jews running degenerate businesses like porn-production companies, dirty local Jewish businessmen like ghetto-real estate owners – all those guys got protection from fellow Jews in elected offices or other influential position for now.

    Over the next two decade those guys will have the best time throughout Jewish history, but after that in a Brazilified USA/EU business will be very tough due many new players moving in.

    Alot of those dirty Jews will try to move to E-Europe/E-Asia but they will be policed by other local Jews or native local elites.

    I don’t think Jews as a whole will go down as a whole. Just the Jews, who peddle globo-homo – their final victory over Europeans will be a very short lived.

    Some of the leading “European” ethno-nationalist in the later decades of this century will of course be actually Jews. 😉

    The only true losers are law-abding, ambitious, fair-playing lower-middle-class non-Europeans, who struggle in their ruthless societies in the later decades of this century. They would have flourished if they would have been migrants to the West in the late 70s. They would have enjoy a tolerant host and two generations of upward mobility.

  439. @Aseansupreme

    The Japanese lost. The Japanese invaded SE Asia and were expelled by the British Indian army.

  440. Chinaman says:
    @utu

    If an outlier contradicts everything what we know about a given phenomena it must be rejected until further corroborating data.

    What do we know about the origins of the virus in China? If it did arise from China, then the most plausible and logical explanation is the bioattack hypothesis concocted by Ron..so COVID originated in America.

    We have absolutely ZERO evidence to substantiate anything you claim below.

    (2) Chinese are inept and let the virus escape from a lab
    (3) Chinese are evil and play with biochemical weapons

    In fact, it is INEPT Americans that have let all kind of deadly virus to escape from Fort Detrick story so it needed to be shut down. It is EVIL Americans who setup dozens of bioweapon labs around the world and used it during the Korean War and god knows where else. These are facts, your claims are hot air.

    You are welcomed to challenge Unz’s bioattack hypothesis but we all know you are not interested in the science or the truth. You pretend the genetic age studies by Forester or dux.ie don’t exist and ignore the wastewater studies that I have assiduously complied. At the end of the day, You are just a dishonest, forked-tongue troll. Don’t waste my time. This is just an excuse for you and others to hate on the Chinese. You can hate all you want and conjure up all sort of malicious theories but you can’t change this fact… It is not the Chinese that are dying or suffering from COVID. It is Americans who are dying from it.

    You make me think China should proudly take credit for causing all these death and destruction in America…without lifting a finger, It will be the “dirty” Chinaman’s schadenfreude.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
  441. Mitleser says:
    @E. Harding

    That means the PRC has a very capable space industry, not having a larger GDP than the USA.
    After all, the USSR did also have this capability.

  442. @showmethereal

    Meh, whether or not anime depicts “white people”, its done a great deal to increase the valuation of Japan in others and spread its values. That’s quite a win.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  443. @Chinaman

    The way East Asian/South East Asian nations seem to be dramatically less affected by coronavirus than practically everywhere else points to it being a race specific bioweapon, specifically not to affect people of East Asian/Mongoloid descent which Han Chinese obviously are.

    If it was the other way round, rates low to non-existent in white countries, everywhere else dropping like flies, people wouldn’t hesitate to come to that conclusion.

    • Troll: d dan, HeebHunter
  444. @EldnahYm

    Right, so Donald Trump did not spent four years doing all this trade war stuff because it is just too insignificant to matter.

    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  445. @Abelard Lindsey

    Good question. Tech progress hasn’t stopped, but progress is slowing across the board. Moore’s law is rarely mentioned these days because it is embarrassingly behind schedule; MIT declared it dead recently. Tech stagnation is major obstacle to growth in productivity.

    China’s GDP growth curve has been much steeper than the technological growth curve so it’s not sustainable. Japan hit this slightly slanted ceiling around 1990 while the US/EU hit the ceiling around 1973. Real income and energy costs have been flat ever since. Perhaps the best proxy for technological progress is the cost of energy as a share of GDP.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Abelard Lindsey
  446. A123 says:
    @Ron Unz

    One thing I’ve noticed recently is that the fanatically pro-Israel Jewish-activists seem to have become fiercely anti-Chinese, as exemplified in the foolish remarks by “Lot” and “AaronB” on this thread.

    Mr. Unz,

    How do you know that they recently changed and “became anti-CCP”?

    Under Bush/Obama, prior to 2016, the situation was:
    — Very pro-CCP Republicans — MegaCorporations were still GOP.
    — Very pro-CCP Democrats — Chinese ethnicity was celebrated by the DNC.

    With 100% pro-CCP politically inevitable, there were few conversations where “China Rulz” was not baked in as an assumption. There are a very limited number of people who intentionally spend huge amounts of time on issues where they are guaranteed to be ineffective. It takes a rare mindset to obtain personal satisfaction from the process rather than the outcome.

    Trump’s willingness to confront Chinese Elite Leadership and re-industrialize the U.S. was ground breaking. This policy change led to discussions that provided substantial opportunities to air long-standing complaints about CCP exploitation. For example, monopolizing key industries (e.g. Rare Earths) and stealing Intellectual Property.

    While it was rarely expressed, the underlying dissatisfaction with CCP behaviour has been present for decades.

    PEACE 😇

  447. @Ron Unz

    Mr. Unz, I sincerely appreciate your reply. Your “American Pravda” series is worthy of a Pulitzer Prize, so it’s an honor to hear from you directly.

    You make a very interesting observation regarding shifting attitudes towards China on the pseudo-right/neocon and neolib elite. As you suspected, I’m not affiliated with zerohedge, so I cannot comment with any special knowledge on their transformation.

    It’s analogous to the anti-Russia shift in American media and politics since Putin came to power and has intensified to hysterical levels since Trump was elected.

    Interestingly, both the sinophiles and the sinophobes tend to agree that China will be the dominant power in the world by 2050; far exceeding the US economically, militarily, and technologically. They only disagree on the implications of such power. The mainstream commentariat expresses its sinophobia with the dysphemism “communist China” (which is designed to automatically delegitimize the aspirations of 1.4 billion people) and then proceeds to get lost in a “communist A.I.” dystopian fantasy. Though I wish I could partake in such colorful fantasies, I tend to be realistic even at the risk of being mundane. For those who cannot look at China objectively, however, my observations may seem provocative.

    China has always been a relatively passive nation tending to its own affairs. With 20-35% of the world’s population and a corresponding share of global GDP throughout pre-industrial history, the Chinese did not discover Australia, let alone the laws of motion. Dominating, discovering, and transforming the world is inherently aggressive; such behavior doesn’t fit the Chinese character. China follows the beaten path and seeks security for its people. China is not “Japan x 11” or “America x 4.” China reaches for the stars not out of a Faustian striving for the eternal but out of fear of looking incompetent by its international peers. This “achievement anxiety syndrome” defines Chinese culture. One may recall the numerous cases of Chinese expat students expelled for cheating or bribery. They arrived from a culture where such behavior is endemic and, possibly, partly genetic. China is a macrocosm of that phenomenon. In the race to get ahead, China routinely cheats. Theft of intellectual capital is real; ideas can be worth trillions of dollars in our technological world. China’s development model has transferred the profits of innovation from the global creative class to thieves. Larceny on such a scale disincentivizes innovation and may deepen the global technological stagnation that started in the 1970s. I believe this warrants serious consideration even by sinophiles, since China itself is threatened by stagnation.

    China has its own destiny, I don’t believe it will simply be “America x 2” or “America x 3.” The CCP is already placing restrictions on new landmarks, realizing that having a replica of the Eiffel Tower is not a source of pride but rather of shame. There is, of course, much to admire about China and we should maintain peaceful coexistence. We might even learn a thing or two from the CCP if we transcend our “coke vs. pepsi” democracy fetish.

    To anyone curious about the differences between China and the West, I will point you to the utterly fascinating debate between Jack Ma and Elon Musk in which they emerge inadvertently as ambassadors of their respective civilizational spirits.

    “Why you are so curious about the Mars”
    -Jack Ma

    Jack Ma and Elon Musk hold debate in Shanghai:

    • Thanks: Polemos
  448. Flash says:

    I think with China being restricted to buy western tech, they will have no other choice but to develop their own. Now they reached the level where they can do with time. That will inherently eat up huge market shares from the west. And with reduced profits come reduced R&D and with that comes less innovation. And less innovation means less appeal. Less appeal is loss of market share. A downward spiral.
    Let’s not forget that there are still 1 billion Chinese making less than 2500$/year. Once these guys start catching up the GDP will shoot up to 35-40 trillion USD.
    I can’t see the US GDP growing any further. At some point it will even start to decline.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  449. Smith says:
    @showmethereal

    Wrong on both accounts.

    During the 80s when Japan was “the bad guy” (only for the USA, the whole world loves Japan at the times, save for maybe China), plenty of shows (TV/movies series) of Japan still penetrate into worldwide market, such as Akira or Gundam or Macross or the Ghibli movies, it wasn’t total information blackout, in fact, 80s Japanese OVAs define the whole period along with 80s American action movies.

    And no, Ghibli anime like Spirited Away, released during the same period, is actually more popular than Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in the US.

    But nowadays the range has been lessened, movies can be successful in China only and carry the box office.
    Seeing the list of successful non-English movies nowadays, most of all are chinese films.

    View post on imgur.com

    The most popular anime recently is also a Japanese-centric series with next to no “gaijin” characters, Kimetsu no Yaiba.
    https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/vsbattles/images/3/33/Demon_Slayer.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20190423175609

    On the video game front, japanese-centric games also dominate:https://assets.vg247.com/current/2019/08/nioh_2-5.jpg

    With the recent game, Sakuna, literally being japanese rice culture:
    So no, I think you doth protest too much and base yourself on the PERCEPTION of american media on asian, than actual asian media existing right now.

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @showmethereal
  450. @Ron Unz

    Mr. Unz, I sincerely appreciate your reply. Your “American Pravda” series is worthy of a Pulitzer Prize, so it’s an honor to hear from you directly.

    You make a very interesting observation regarding shifting attitudes towards China on the pseudo-right/neocon and neolib elite. As you suspected, I’m not affiliated with zerohedge, so I cannot comment with any special knowledge on their transformation.

    Would you say it is analogous to the anti-Russia shift in American media and government since Putin came to power? It seemingly turned to hysteria since Trump was elected, with NYT writing about it almost daily.

    Interestingly, both the sinophiles and the sinophobes tend to agree that China will be the dominant power in the world by 2050; far exceeding the US economically, militarily, and technologically. They only disagree on the implications of such power. The mainstream commentariat expresses its sinophobia with the dysphemism “communist China” (which is designed to automatically delegitimize the aspirations of 1.4 billion people) and then proceeds to get lost in a “communist A.I.” dystopian fantasy. Though I wish I could partake in such colorful fantasies, I tend to be realistic even at the risk of being mundane. For those who cannot look at China objectively, however, my observations may seem provocative.

    China has always been a relatively passive nation tending to its own affairs. With 20-35% of the world’s population and a corresponding share of global GDP throughout pre-industrial history, the Chinese did not discover Australia, let alone the laws of motion. Dominating, discovering, and transforming the world is inherently aggressive; such behavior doesn’t fit the Chinese character. China follows the beaten path and seeks security for its people. China reaches for the stars not out of a Faustian striving for the eternal but out of fear of looking incompetent by its international peers. This “achievement anxiety syndrome” defines Chinese culture. One may recall the numerous cases of Chinese expat students expelled for cheating or bribery. They arrived from a culture where such behavior is endemic and, possibly, partly genetic. China is a macrocosm of that phenomenon. Cheating on a massive scale through IP theft disincentivizes innovation and may deepen the global technological stagnation that started in the 1970s. I believe this warrants serious consideration even by sinophiles, since China itself is threatened by stagnation.

    China has its own destiny, I don’t believe it will simply be “America x 3.” The CCP is already taking steps away from globalization, placing restrictions on new skyscrapers and landmarks having realized that a replica of the Eiffel Tower is not a source of pride but rather of shame. There is, of course, much to admire about China and we should maintain peaceful coexistence. We might even learn a thing or two from the CCP if we transcend our “coke vs. pepsi” democracy fetish.

    To anyone curious about the differences between China and the West, I will point you to the utterly fascinating debate between Jack Ma and Elon Musk in which they emerge inadvertently as ambassadors of their respective civilizational spirits.

    “Why you are so curious about the Mars”
    -Jack Ma

    Jack Ma and Elon Musk hold debate in Shanghai:

    • Replies: @Rdm
    , @Rdm
  451. AaronB says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Very good comment. Bravo.

    China is neither demon nor angel. It is a different kind of civilization.

    But I am somewhat skeptical about any argument that uses the character of traditional Chinese culture to project its future. China made a very concerted effort to break with its past and reinvent itself. It has clearly been affected by the West’s Faustian spirit and Enlightenment ideas. We have to remember that the West, too, transitioned into its Faustian spirit. It wasn’t always like that.

    How far this process has gone, is hard to say. That video was quite fascinating, and suggests China doesn’t yet prioritize intellectual curiosity and the restless spirit of dissatisfaction that reaches for the stars. It was fascinating to hear Jack Ma say he has no interest in Mars.

    However, Chinese belligerence does not seem explainable in terms of a defensive strategy, and seems to suggest a desire to expand and dominate. Likewise, the general contempt for international norms and standards of probity does not suggest an inward looking spirit of cooperation considering the fact that China’s rise was quite literally made possible by the international community, and particularly Wall Street, funneling massive amounts of investment money to China.

    The international community raised China up by flinging open their markets and investing heavily in China, only to see China cynically try and crash the system.

    This certainly suggests a new, aggressive China, one that is radically different from the old, inward looking China whose key values were harmony and cooperation. China today emphasizes “wolf diplomacy” and is trying specifically to break with the old Chinese values.

    I am also troubled by the stifling social repression in China. This is obviously a terrible social model, but worryingly, this kind of repression tends to create unhappy, restless people who tend to become aggressive. Traditional Chinese society, based on Taoism, was much more free and relaxed, and produced free and relaxed people.

    It is too early to truly say with China – in a sense it seems still to be working out the consequences of its traumatic 19th century and has not yet settled on a clear modern identity. How much of that modern identity will be a break with its past is not yet clear.

    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
    • LOL: HeebHunter
  452. @Tyler Durden

    Peasant born CEO who mostly concerns himself with fiat money and trade
    VS
    Autistic Technocrat who wants to plant chips in peoples’ brain just like the rest of the globohomos.

    Who can talk longer and more engaged about natural science?
    More at 11!

    …..

    • Replies: @d dan
  453. @E. Harding

    China has just launched a spacecraft to get rocks from the moon and bring them back to Earth:

    Will NASA provide its own moon rock samples so that a comparison study can be carried out to establish if they faked their Apollo moon landings or not?

  454. Rdm says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Chinese did not discover Australia.

    You’re picking up a string of land grabs by Europeans and attribute them to be successful traits. Granted, those are “adventurous” traits and one can easily assume such that. But it’s convenient to simply ignore the unification traits of Chinese vs Europeans.

    Did Irish discover New Zealand?

    Or

    Was there any European leader that united an offshore land and mainland as in England and France or united England, France, Germany, Spain? There was none. All of those nations were busy expanding their colonies offshores. A conflict between those nations were first ever categorized as “World War I”. In a similar vein, we would see there have been many infightings and skirmishes or sometimes major war in Yangtze river and they are just, you know, “trivia war”. But if you study Chinese history, there have been many breakups and unification of the greater China and you’d realize it took an immense power of a leader to unite the 1.2 billion people. But after all, for western eyes, Chinese are just drones.

    Did Columbus discover India or he’s just extremely lucky ?

    https://wildmoz.com/african-trader-zheng-he/

    The second part of your arguments has some merits. I’ll get back to that later.

    • Thanks: Tyler Durden, Polemos
    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  455. songbird says:
    @Smith

    Chinese movies, on the whole, don’t seem to have a significant export market compared to Hollywood. Most of those totals are essentially Chinese domestic box office, and probably inflated through manipulation, like free tickets.

    I don’t think China had really formulated a strategic response to Hollywood. It is a shame really. If I were the Chinese leadership, I would be trying to destroy Hollywood. But I doubt that they really see the danger of poz as such – it’s long been a blindness within East Asia because of lack of experience with diversity.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  456. Rahan says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    127% inflation in 15 years? 127% drop in value?

    Hopefully not, but not impossible.
    $1 in 1970 is worth $6.71 today
    $1 in 1980 is worth $3.16 today
    $1 in 1990 is worth $1.99 today
    https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1970?amount=1
    https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1980?amount=1
    https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1990?amount=1

    Just seeing the unhealthy changes in the economy between 2008 and 2020 makes one think. The current lockdown scorched earth makes one really think. From 2020 to 2035? Anything’s possible, at the rate things are going.

    We’re in “speeded up history” mode again, after decades of timeless stagnation. Some might say US democracy might not survive. Some might say civil peace inside the US might not survive. Some might say the territorial integrity of the US might not survive. Some might say the superpower status of the US might not survive. Almost everyone who pays attention, agrees that by 2035 the “white boomer” demographic layer will have melted away, and the US will look like an LAPD graduation ceremony, ethnically.

    Compared to all this, mere robust inflation is not some impossible variation.

    Plus, it’s not impossible that at some point “the elites” will announce that “in order to make the US economy competitive” everyone has to be poor and the dollar has to be worth crap all. They could literally make this happen on purpose, and all the experts and the media will breathlessly applaud. But even without such a conscious choice, we’re in anything is possible territory, and going in deeper and deeper at an accelerating pace.

    Let’s not forget China did not become the world’s second economy because it suddenly surged forward (it did, but not to that extent). It became the world’s second economy after everyone else screwed up in 2008-2009.

    I’m pretty confident that by the CCP’s internal schedule China was supposed to become a visible superpower only circa 2020, not a dozen years earlier. They were forced to accelerate everything before they were ready, because they became too visible, because the First World really did turn out to be incompetent degenerates to a much vaster extent than expected. And that was back then, still before everyone REALLY went insane.

  457. d dan says:
    @HeebHunter

    “Peasant born CEO who mostly concerns himself with fiat money and trade
    VS
    Autistic Technocrat who wants to plant chips in peoples’ brain just like the rest of the globohomos.”

    Agree. Neither of them represents the best mind in science for their respective countries. May be Elon Musk is closer to the best and is more admired in America, but Jack Ma definitely not for China.

    It is so embarrassing to listen to Tyler Durden analyzing China’s motivations to “reaches for the stars”, “placing restrictions on new skyscrapers and landmarks” and his (and AaronB’s) prognosis of China’s future path. But hey, at least he knows the name of the richest person in China.

    • Thanks: HeebHunter
  458. @Rdm

    Im am quite sure that Zheng He did not look like your average Han looks like nowadays, but yes early Ming dynasty was very dynamic and expansive society, which could have done the same feats of colonization and conquest as the Spanish, Portuguese and British did in the Early Modern Era, but sadly or luckily China didnt lack any products or resources so there was no motive for such behaviour. Later when Europeans started to trade silver and gold from the New World for Chinese products, there was even less reason for Chinese to colonize something. A poor beggar needs to wander from one place to another in search of riches and happiness, but a rich man can enjoy his mansion, gardens and stable life, yes an over simplification, but theres some truth in it. For more than three hundred years relations between the west and China were somewhat like that.

    • Replies: @Smith
  459. kemerd says:

    It incredible that people here have discussion about relative GDP and don’t mention imperialism. There is no meaningful comparison of China with Japan or any other US puppet. Japan is hostage to a parasite elite class who sacrificed their country in 1980s under the commands of the US. I suggest you read Richard Werner on how Japanese central bank engineered the lost decades for Japan. In 1980s Japan was projected to surpass US economy within a decade. This will not happen with China, it is already clear.

    I also have few words for IQ folks: it does not matter a bit. What matters greatly is how smart are the people who run the country, how efficiently they organize their society, etc. Obviously, Chinese elite are smart, much smarter than the US elite who bet that they could co-opt the CCP and plunder Chinese riches together while letting US industry and technology to be transferred to China. Obviously, they have outfoxed US industrialists.

    And, finally the way Chinese state is proven to be run much more effective than the western countries. The Covid crises has proven that western competence is much lower than Asians. China’s massive mobilization for containing and then crushing Covid is exemplary.

    And the final point: CCP is socialist, they will cut their billionaires to size when they think the time is right. This alone would would lift the Chinese GDP to a much higher level due to corrections to inequality and much larger internal market which is huge. In fact, they can afford to run a closed economy when it becomes technologically feasible and still benefit on economies of scale.

    So, in my view sky is the limit for the Chinese as long as they can keep tapping on its enormous human capital and keep its financial institutions under state control.

    • Replies: @Smith
  460. Smith says:
    @AltanBakshi

    I’ve said it and I want to say it again.

    The chinks did not colonize because they cannot, not because they don’t want to.

    The Ming for example faced numerous strong adversaries (the Le dynasty in Vietnam to the South, and Tokugawa Japan in the East and Manchu to the North, effectively blocking China).

    And of course, isolationism policy is a disaster, as seen in all 3 countries (Ming becomes Qing Manchu) where the westerners come knocking.

    • Troll: d dan
  461. @Eugene Norman

    The Coronacrisis didn’t start in September, silly. They’ve increased their trade surplus for this whole year, especially since March.

  462. @Smith

    Manchus became a problem only in the early 17th century. Vietnam was part of the China during the early Ming and even after Vietnamese regained their independence, they were a peaceful tributary vassal and not a threat to the China. Japanese were only once a major problem for the Ming, during their invasion of Korea, but beyond thay they were just irritating pirates. Did you by the way notice that I wrote early Ming, not just the Ming? If Chinese could build large ocean crossing navies of thousands of sailors, that could travel to Arabia or Africa, how then they lacked a capability for colonization? The reason was economical and political, not because Chinese couldnt, but because they had no good reason. Mongols actually had a greater will to power and expansionism than the Chinese had, the great Khaan Khubilai tried to annex large areas in Indonesia and Southeast Asia to the great Yuan.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
  463. gT says:
    @Ron Unz

    I think that the dumb Jews have realized that while China was a great tool with which to bring down the West, China will not sit idly by and watch the Jews rule over the remains of the West as Kings but will rather want to be Kings of the planet themselves. The Chinese were expected to be content with all the promised Mongol lands (includes Russia), but with the resurgent Russia that is never going to happen, so the Chinese expectations drifted elsewhere – to Jewish ordained lands. So now the Jews of the West and the Jews of the East (the Chinese) are in dispute.

    So China was always in cahoots with the Jews to destroy the West up until it was clear that Russia wasn’t going anywhere. Now China wants to continue destroying the West and then taking over, leaving the Jews with nothing.

  464. @Z-man

    China is the future. Why? Because they do not have the current pathologies that are infesting the West. They go into hard science and engineering in large numbers and excel in these fields. In my life, I’ve often been the only “white” doing what I do. How many white Americans do you know in thin film materials science? They do not have this “woke” BS and are not apologetic about their culture and accomplishments. Most significantly, they are, physiologically, the more gracial race and do not have the socio-biological BS that we have (especially blacks and latinos). They are almost asexual in this regard. Lastly, the Chinese are survivors and opportunity seekers. This is why there are “Chinatowns” in almost every major city in the world.

    The advantage of the West is (was) our pioneering spirit (Frederick Jackson Turner style), which is exclusively an American phenomenon. The Europeans do not have a pioneering bone on their bodies. Without the pioneering spirit, the West, and white by extension, are nothing. The problem is that this pioneering spirit seems to be in long-term decline. This decline is exacerbated by the “helicopter” parenting phenomenon, which has produced a generation of leftist snowflakes.

    Also consider that Chinese people today are more entrepreneurial than their American counterparts. The Chinese invented trade and entrepreneurship 3000 years ago. They are returning to it following the disastrous hiatus of Maoism.

    • Agree: Lake Wobegon
  465. @Tyler Durden

    It is true that semiconductors are reaching their limits. It appears that TSMC and others will reach the molecular level (1-2 nanometers) by the middle of this decade. That is a hard limit. But there are others areas of science and technology that have barely been pursued. Biotechnology and bio-engineering is one. There is bio-enginering, which offers a multi-century path of development. Another is nuclear science. Sure there is fission and potentially fusion. But I think nuclear science offers possibilities that have not been pursue (I think transmutation on an industrial scale will be realized). Then there is the exotic matter in physics. Exotic matter is the future of physics breakthroughs. Technological innovation will continue for decades, if not centuries.

    There is also the O’neill L5 scenario of space colonization to be done as well. We need to get cracking on this as well.

    • Agree: mal
    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
  466. Ron Unz says:
    @Tyler Durden

    Thanks for the very kind words, and I regret my rather harsh remarks.

    China has always been a relatively passive nation tending to its own affairs. With 20-35% of the world’s population and a corresponding share of global GDP throughout pre-industrial history, the Chinese did not discover Australia, let alone the laws of motion. Dominating, discovering, and transforming the world is inherently aggressive; such behavior doesn’t fit the Chinese character.

    Yes, I’d certainly agree that the Chinese have never been a particularly “adventurous” people, and I doubt that will much change. However, that’s entirely different from continuing to pursue economic development and technological innovation, which have extremely practical value. Meanwhile, landing on the Moon or Mars are “prestige projects,” beneficial for the international credibility they provide, much like successfully hosting the Olympics or winning a large share of the medals at the event. Anyway, the cost of such projects is rather negligible relative to regular Chinese investment.

    One may recall the numerous cases of Chinese expat students expelled for cheating or bribery. They arrived from a culture where such behavior is endemic and, possibly, partly genetic. China is a macrocosm of that phenomenon. In the race to get ahead, China routinely cheats. Theft of intellectual capital is real; ideas can be worth trillions of dollars in our technological world. China’s development model has transferred the profits of innovation from the global creative class to thieves.

    I’m very skeptical of that perspective, which I suspect is mostly just anti-Chinese propaganda. Looking at news reports with a judicious eye, I’ve never seen much evidence of Chinese people being heavily involved in cheating or theft in American society, while certain other ethnic groups are clearly notorious in that category. I’d put most of that in the same category as the media Russigate nonsense about Putin the Evil stealing the American election.

    I think an important Chinese/East Asian characteristic is their tendency toward social conformity, so if they’re raised in a cheating-is-fine society, they’ll do so, but if not, then not. California has a large fraction of America’s Chinese/East Asian population, and at least the American-born ones seem very “clean” to me.

    As for theft of international intellectual property, I’m extremely skeptical. I assume you’re aware of the massive IP theft that was endemic during America’s economic rise, as well as the wholesale looting in the aftermath of the world wars. Glass houses and all that…

    Jack Ma and Elon Musk hold debate in Shanghai:

    Well, based on his public statements, Musk seems pathologically dishonest to me, and his car company is the leading example of the insane current Tech Bubble. I wouldn’t be surprised if it loses 90-98% of its market value, at which point, he may be much less of a hero and role-model to his destroyed investors.

    On your broader analysis, I’ve been projecting and predicting China’s huge rise to global economic dominance for well over 40 years now, and in some respects my extremely “bullish” estimates have even fallen short of the reality. Since I think you’re a newcomer to this website, you might find some of my past articles of interest if you’re not already familiar with them:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/chinas-rise-americas-fall/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    https://www.unz.com/runz/the-long-decline-of-the-london-economist/

    And on more immediate and recent issues, you might find my analysis in this article also quite “surprising”:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

  467. Rdm says:
    @Tyler Durden

    The second part of your argument sits largely on the traits of Europeans and Chinese. To take a sweeping generalization at each racial character and paint as if they all fit into your stroke of stereotypes, it’s very “simple” and misses lots of good and bad traits from each group. I’ll first go into European traits, especially Nordic and seafaring group of White people. As the survival instinct necessitates them to explore and expand their colonies, it’s no surprise that only coastal Europeans or Nordic Whites dominated the seafaring activities. This also created the selection of daring men to embark upon this national activity of expanding colonies.

    You could well realize there’s no hinterland for British, French to expand their colonies. This in fact is a stark difference between Han Chinese and Europeans to begin with. The lot given by Nature has dictated their path forward. This is where one of the major characteristic traits developed over hundreds of years between these two groups. One of the traits was seafaring warriors require aggressiveness while hinterland warriors require tactics and coexistence.

    This begs the question.

    Have you ever heard of Han Chinese destroying foreign national treasure? You’ve heard Chinese are sneaky, devious, unscrupulous but Europeans are so benevolent and kind-hearted that there’s no mention of the Summer Palace destroyed by British and French in MSM.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Summer_Palace

    You’d probably argue “This kind of comment is of sinophilia”.

    It is not. It’s the objective observation. On one hand, you have no historical events of Han Chinese destroying foreign treasures in foreign lands in thousands of years. Chinese diaspora in South East Asia, coexist with locals; Chinese immigrants all over the world creating their own community. Zheng He brought back a giraffe from Africa instead of destroying African palace.

    On the other hand, you have a historical evidence of European colonialists destroying foreign treasures, lands and yet it’s all for good faith and helping industrialize those barbarian sneaky little sub-humans.

    This kind of observation is not for sinophilic or anti-Whites. This is the reality and oftentime in this kind of topics, good commenters are shot down with “You are pro-China or wumao” while being pro-American was inherently supposed to be God-given heavenly Christian value.

    I think this will partially answer some of the traits you described between Europeans and Chinese.

    The other part of your argument,

    One may recall the numerous cases of Chinese expat students expelled for cheating or bribery. They arrived from a culture where such behavior is endemic and, possibly, partly genetic. China is a macrocosm of that phenomenon. Cheating on a massive scale through IP theft disincentivizes innovation and may deepen the global technological stagnation that started in the 1970s. I believe this warrants serious consideration even by sinophiles, since China itself is threatened by stagnation.

    I’d take that you just stumbled upon Unz recently and found those controversial topics freely written by any authors and comments are allowed without any inhibitions, your inner Whitey psyche soared and wanted to shot down those sneaky little yellow bastards by paint-brushing old stereotypes. The cheating, peer pressure, those comeback used to be two decade old retorts and they don’t apply in 2020.

    You might want to study “Samuel Slater” or “Slator the traitor”.

    China has its own destiny, I don’t believe it will simply be “America x 3.” The CCP is already taking steps away from globalization, placing restrictions on new skyscrapers and landmarks having realized that a replica of the Eiffel Tower is not a source of pride but rather of shame. There is, of course, much to admire about China and we should maintain peaceful coexistence. We might even learn a thing or two from the CCP if we transcend our “coke vs. pepsi” democracy fetish.

    I don’t think CCP is so worried about China being 1x or 10x than any xxx country. They just want a sphere of influence. Eiffel Tower replica is not for instilling national pride to those yellow bastards by copying French national landmark. It’s to retain those ardent wanna-be-global-tourists bumpkins from some rural China. After seeing Great Wall for centuries, they want something pointy for their sightseeing. That’s why Beijing has been building all those ugly pointy building in recent years.

    To anyone curious about the differences between China and the West, I will point you to the utterly fascinating debate between Jack Ma and Elon Musk in which they emerge inadvertently as ambassadors of their respective civilizational spirits.
    “Why you are so curious about the Mars”
    -Jack Ma

    You mean the idiot on the left and the autist on the right display in Shanghai?

    This is the pioneer of speech recognition and created the first working prototype of algorithm to detect voice. So for all the Siri, Google Assistant, Echo, yea… sneaky cheating yellow bastards wrote some codes because of peer pressure.

    He’s now back to China.

    You’d see the view count. That’s how the general audience here in the US is showing their intelligence. If this is Nicky Minaj twerking or two idiots arguing for Mars, there’d be millions of views.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  468. @Tyler Durden

    “Faustian” argument is really rather stupid – assumes some sort of eternal innate characteristics of nations which is largely inapplicable given enough time: Greece is not a great creator of culture now, Islam is not a major military power, etc.

    An argument could be made for generalized reduced creativity, but the moment that eternal characteristics with no real mechanisms are explained, its slipping fully into magical copism.

    Indeed, as a starting point of your error on theory of mind: Karlin does not agree with your overall assessment. If you are incorrect on something as small as a blogger’s thesis, perhaps you might want to consider the same projections on an entire culture.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @AaronB
  469. noname27 says: • Website
    @showmethereal

    Did I give you date?

    Matthew 24:21-22 (KJV) For then shall be Great Tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. 22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved (alive): but for The Elect’s (The Saint’s) sake those days shall be shortened.

    When in the history of man could an earthly power threaten the very existence of mankind?

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  470. @Agent76

    Nov 23, 2020 The End of Chinese Companies on US Stock Markets?

    Not a problem, after RCEP, the blockbuster EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will also be signed before the end of the year.

    https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/eu-investment-framework-should-be-ready-by-december-china-ex-vice-minister-says-

  471. @Smith

    I’ve said it and I want to say it again.

    The chinks did not colonize because they cannot, not because they don’t want to.

    The Ming for example faced numerous strong adversaries (the Le dynasty in Vietnam to the South, and Tokugawa Japan in the East and Manchu to the North, effectively blocking China).

    And of course, isolationism policy is a disaster, as seen in all 3 countries (Ming becomes Qing Manchu) where the westerners come knocking.

    It does not matter anymore now that China is a space-faring nation. The conquest of the moon is all that matters next.

    • Replies: @Deep Thought
  472. AaronB says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Nice to see you moving away from HBD and towards my position that national character and performance is flexible 🙂

    And not surprising that Chinese nationalism led you there. Nothing wrong with this – all thinking is motivated thinking, we just have to test it against facts. But a desire for something to be true may motivate us to see what’s wrong with a theory we dislike, and that’s perfectly legit.

    That’s why the White Nationalists meek submission to an HBD theory easy to poke holes through always struck me as a hidden desire for decline.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  473. @noname27

    Man you’ll look silly in 2050

    • Replies: @noname27
  474. Barr says:
    @AaronB

    ‘ Sisi’s visit, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon announced that “the UK would establish a small military team in Egypt to counter terrorism and extremism.” As I have written about here, the spread of terrorism throughout the MENA region by NATO’s Libya operation has laid the groundwork for a renewed Western push to convince global South states that they need to deepen ‘military co-operation’ with the West. Thus, where economic dependence on Western finance and markets is in terminal decline (largely due to the rise of China), a new military dependence is being fostered. This is especially so for states such as Nigeria, Egypt and Iraq – one-time client states of the West gradually being pulled out of its orbit – with the West using the threat of terrorism as a means of forcing them back into the Western fold. A classic protection racket, in other words.’”

    Following Sinai bombing that brought Russian plane down ,this article was penned by

    9 th Nov 2015 http://WWW.COUNTERPUNCH.COM DANA GLAZEBROK

    Current military and jingoistic activities by US NATO refusal to consider withdrawing troops and ratcheting up pressure against China are part part of the picture that makes the decline of US as a nation a fact of near future With this development NATO would recoil back to the empty shell and a lot of countries’s citizen would have a chance to think of life, politics and economy from a new perspective different from last 500 yrs.

  475. @AaronB

    Yet another person with a terrible theory of mind.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  476. GuestAug says:

    Well, some people, including many people in China, believe that Maoism is exactly what made China’s current success possible. It was the educational reforms instituted by Mao after the communist party had taken over China that turned a nation of illiterate, opium-smoking peasants into a highly competitive labor force.

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @EldnahYm
  477. Smith says:
    @kemerd

    Seeing “Princes of the Yen” really opened my eyes, it’s really down to money and production, or rather controlled money and production. Money MUST be controlled by the state, there cannot be such monstrosity such as state borrowing money from a private bank.

    The problem seems actually easy to solve:
    – Bank of Japan to create money and pump directly into the public’s hands in form of stimulus check to create confidence and encourage consumption/spending
    – provide debt forgiven mechanism to the civilians in order to encourage spending and investment
    – re-introduction of “window guidance” i.e. central planning to control spending and loan for specific sectors (focus on industry, agriculture and NOT finance) and of course control of private assets

    It’s amazing that war time economy is so much better than the free-market bullshit.

    Perhaps one day Japan will be free of this parasitical alien when the USA goes down, or the samurai has had enough.

    @AltanBakshi

    The first is the Zheng He’s treasure fleets/Ming naval’s technology, while impressive in size, were traveling very slow and only hugging the coast, meanwhile, Australia and NZ need blue-water navies in order to effectively transport troops, foods, products to colonize.

    The second is the Ming government themselves, while seemingly strong, was also rife with corruption ever since the first Ming Emperor who loved using secret eunuch police.

    The third is again, regional adverseries, it was Early Ming who successfully invaded Vietnam’s Tran dynasty, but it was also early Ming who got beaten up by Le Loi, and Le Dynasty is one of Vietnam’s greatest where we expand our borders massively against Champa and Laos. This is a time when Ming does not dare going south.

    Early Ming also has the problems with the mongols while mid-and late Ming has to directly contend with the Manchu in the North and of course the Jap invasion of Korea drains a huge amount of personnel and money.

    These issues effectively cockblock Ming China’s naval expansion.

    This matter is again repeated in Qing China, where they make massive land expansion and taking Tibet, but fail to make another move southward, once again due to the resistance of various SEA countries, Japan and now the westerners.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
  478. @Smith

    The chinks did not colonize because they cannot, not because they don’t want to.

    While cruising the web, I often encountered nationalistic Viets blaming the Chinese for having “colonised” Vietnam “for more than 1000 years”. If they are right, it shows that the Chinese CAN colonise and thereby proves that you are spitting out crap. If they are wrong, it shows the Viets are like the Japs, whose loves can only be earned by nuking them– and the Viet love can only by earned by agent-orangeing them!!!

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @showmethereal
    , @d dan
  479. Ron Unz says:
    @Rdm

    Have you ever heard of Han Chinese destroying foreign national treasure? You’ve heard Chinese are sneaky, devious, unscrupulous but Europeans are so benevolent and kind-hearted that there’s no mention of the Summer Palace destroyed by British and French in MSM.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Summer_Palace

    …On one hand, you have no historical events of Han Chinese destroying foreign treasures in foreign lands in thousands of years.

    Well, I’m not sure that’s entirely fair. After all, for the last couple of thousand years China had controlled nearly all the civilized regions in its vicinity, so its (border) wars were mostly fought against steppe barbarians. When victorious, the Chinese might massacre them, but they probably didn’t have any “foreign treasures” worth destroying.

    On the other hand, consider the case of the (very harsh) first emperor, who established the Chinese Empire. Didn’t he supposedly destroy an enormous number of ancient books and documents and massacre huge numbers of scholars in order to “culturally unify” his new state by stamping out preexisting regional languages and ideas?

    Throughout history, countries that fought each other have not infrequently burned down and destroyed the capital cities of their enemies, and if China had had rival powers in its part of the world, I expect it would have done the same. I’m not an expert on Chinese history, but didn’t this sort of thing sometimes happen during the various civil wars or earlier, in the Warring States period?

    • Agree: AaronB
  480. @last straw

    It does not matter anymore now that China is a space-faring nation. The conquest of the moon is all that matters next.

    No Problem. The heroic Viet warriors will beat back these Chinese space-invaders as they had done to the Chinese land-invaders in the past 3 thousand years!!!

  481. Joe Wong says:
    @Smith

    Gweilo is filthy ‘god-fearing’ morally defunct evil barbarian.

  482. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    “This is also why K-Pop has a Western following, because Koreans are seen as civilisational peers.”

    Nah it’s more because of the feminized males in K-Pop… Western audiences love seeing males looking or acting like females nowadays.

  483. @Deep Thought

    Yeah the Vietnamese crowd are funny that way… Their positions often make no sense. Kind of like how they call China expansionist in the South China Sea – meanwhile they claim all the Spratly islands themselves and have seized more of them since the 1970’s than anyone else.

    • Replies: @Deep Thought
  484. @Daniel Chieh

    Financially yes – but it still an inferior complex…

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  485. d dan says:
    @Deep Thought

    “If they are right, it shows that the Chinese CAN colonise and thereby proves that you are spitting out crap.”

    It took British only a few hundred people to colonize Malaya, even fewer for Singapore. But hey, Zheng He probably could not spare that amount of people, according to that stupid troll.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  486. Daemon says:
    @Wency

    Not true. Mindless physical work is actually sought out by the ultra high IQ simply because it gives them the time and mental freedom to think freely. Mindless mental work however, is true torture.

  487. @showmethereal

    Its not just financially, though. Conveying its values and raising soft power is significant in a number of other, beneficial ways for a culture. And if viewers identify with its main characters, whether or not because you depicted it more similar to them, you’ve created a greater friendliness in the viewers to your culture.

    Getting egoistically tied up in the exact appearances is not all that useful.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  488. @showmethereal

    An old reply of mine to some Vietnamese poster on the Economist forum:

    ý@ýýýýHin reply to guest-omnnmeiSep 3rd, 05:49
    This map shows how many Spratly islets that are occupied by Vietnam and other claimants:
    .
    https://www.eurasiareview.com/20072020-spratly-islands-and-geopolitical-dimensions-analysis/
    .
    The little red flags with only one star are Vietnamese, NOT Chinese, flags. And they are all over the place.
    .
    And this one shows the occupied islets in relation to the 200nm exclusive economic zones of various countries neighbouring SCS:
    .
    https://www.peacepalacelibrary.nl/south-china-sea-territorial-disputes-continued/
    .
    Nearly all the occupied islets are OUTSIDE Vietnam’s 200nm exclusive economic zone. Most of what Vietnam is occupying lie within other people’s zones.
    .
    Of ALL the claimants in the SCS disputes, Vietnam is the MOST aggressive in islet grabs. Yet, it cries the LOUDEST when it comes to play victim.
    .
    You are a shameless and compulsive Viet liar.
    .
    If it wasn’t for your incessant lying I would not have kept searching the internet and assembled these facts! ;-D, ;-D, ;-D Until now, I thought Vietnam was a genuine victim in the SCS disputes. How ironic!!!

    • Replies: @TSS
    , @showmethereal
  489. Ron Unz says:
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Interesting article on the fatality rate of the virus

    Not too surprising. According to the figures I’ve seen, the average fatality rate for victims over 65 is something like 100x greater than the fatality rate for those under 50. So with such a gigantic age-skew, even just a small change in the age-distribution of those infected can have a very substantial impact on the death rate, even leaving aside any improvement in treatment techniques.

    • Thanks: JohnnyWalker123
  490. @Ron Unz

    Pretty accurate, though the Summer Palace was a strangely random effort since it wasn’t exactly a capital city, which are often destroyed because they have industrial or military value. Afaik, the Summer Palace was a garden created for aesthetic purposes, so its destruction was particularly petty.

    We went out, and, after pillaging it, burned the whole place, destroying in a vandal-like manner most valuable property which [could] not be replaced for four millions. We got upward of £48 apiece prize money … I have done well. The [local] people are very civil, but I think the grandees hate us, as they must after what we did the Palace. You can scarcely imagine the beauty and magnificence of the places we burnt. It made one’s heart sore to burn them; in fact, these places were so large, and we were so pressed for time, that we could not plunder them carefully. Quantities of gold ornaments were burnt, considered as brass. It was wretchedly demoralising work for an army.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Summer_Palace

    Doubtlessly the Chinese had engaged in similar actions at some point, but usually I think the warlords preferred to capture what was aesthetic than to destroy it. Most of Qin destruction, for example, could be argued as pragmatic and at any rate, was rather condemned by almost every subsequent dynasty(though, arguably, a lot of political self-service is in there).

    • Agree: AltanBakshi, HeebHunter
  491. @Thulean Friend

    Yet there are now more limits to what American pressure can do. Indeed, countries that displease Washington can now find a patron or ally that is wealthier and, for reasons of geography, often better able to offer them benefits from trade.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/china-not-biden-picks-antony-blinken-jake-sullivan-will-dictate-ncna1248683

  492. TSS says:
    @Deep Thought

    Don’t waste your time associating with a vietgook like Smith. They are like retarded Indians. These people have nothing. Just giving them attention is a win for them.

    • Replies: @Deep Thought
  493. @TSS

    The temptation is too high. I have tried but can’t resist it! My declared aim on the web is to “make the foolish look foolish”!!!

    • Thanks: showmethereal
  494. @Smith

    The first is the Zheng He’s treasure fleets/Ming naval’s technology, while impressive in size, were traveling very slow and only hugging the coast, meanwhile, Australia and NZ need blue-water navies in order to effectively transport troops, foods, products to colonize.

    Spain and Portugal did not start colonizing New World right away, but they got valuable experience for such endeavours by colonizing Madeira, Azores and the Canary Islands first. In similar way Ming could have very easily started the colonization of the Philippines and Taiwan first. Why to go Australia if you as good lands for colonization nearby?

    Early Ming also has the problems with the mongols while mid-and late Ming has to directly contend with the Manchu in the North and of course the Jap invasion of Korea drains a huge amount of personnel and money.

    Early Ming had no problems with Mongols, actually early Ming was on offensive regarding the Mongols, its only after the Tumu crisis that the Mongols became a recurring problem for the Ming, and the Manchus only became a serious problem in the last decades of the Ming.

    These issues effectively cockblock Ming China’s naval expansion.

    How and why the Ming couldnt have expanded to Taiwan, Philippines and established trading outposts and forts in the Southeast Asia? There was a large movement of Chinese merchants and adventures during the Ming to the SEA region already and as long as the Ming emperors were outward looking they interfered quite actively with the politics of Malaccan sultanates etc. I still claim that the Ming had potential for naval expansion and colonization, its just that they had wrong leaders and political culture for such endeavours.

    This matter is again repeated in Qing China, where they make massive land expansion and taking Tibet, but fail to make another move southward, once again due to the resistance of various SEA countries, Japan and now the westerners.

    No, Manchus were not at all interested in Naval expansion and because they were very conscious about their minority status, they were obsessed with stability and harmony, even more than your average Chinese dynasties. Also Qing had calm and stable mercantile relations with Japan, what resistance you are talking of? Its true that the Qing had problems with expansion to SEA, but no wonder they were at the same moment or almost at the same moment waging multiple wars in Central Asia, Nepal and Tibet, still in the end Burma and Vietnam all accepted the Qing overlordship. What Qing should have done, annexed Vietnam and Burma?

    • Replies: @Smith
  495. Smith says:
    @AltanBakshi

    Since you are the only one who argue seriously, I will follow suit.

    Spain and Portugal did not start colonizing New World right away, but they got valuable experience for such endeavours by colonizing Madeira, Azores and the Canary Islands first. In similar way Ming could have very easily started the colonization of the Philippines and Taiwan first. Why to go Australia if you as good lands for colonization nearby?

    Again, I argue they cannot due to the lack of their technology, their internal rife and of course adversaries. Taiwan can be colonized and has indeed colonized by the Ming, and later conquered by the Qing due to their closeness to the mainland, but for successful of conquest of Phillipines, they need faster ships OR a foothold like Vietnam. They failed to have both.

    Early Ming had no problems with Mongols, actually early Ming was on offensive regarding the Mongols, its only after the Tumu crisis that the Mongols became a recurring problem for the Ming, and the Manchus only became a serious problem in the last decades of the Ming.

    Early Ming went on to fight the mongols to finish them off, this is their major activity aside from the failed occupation of Vietnam. And the mongols continue to be a bother for the Ming up to the 1500s, then the jap invasion of the Korean and then the rise of Manchu basically capture the Ming’s full attention, so I argue there’s no good sweet times for the Ming to go naval expansion.

    No, Manchus were not at all interested in Naval expansion and because they were very conscious about their minority status, they were obsessed with stability and harmony, even more than your average Chinese dynasties.

    Manchu were interested in expansion, seeing how their Qing dynasty manages to hold more territories than the Ming, they just could not focus on naval expansion.

    Also Qing had calm and stable mercantile relations with Japan, what resistance you are talking of?

    Tokugawa Japan was stable, but proved unconquerable to early Qing China, while Meiji Japan was very hostile to late Qing China.

    still in the end Burma and Vietnam all accepted the Qing overlordship. What Qing should have done, annexed Vietnam and Burma?

    Qing couldn’t have conquered Nguyen Vietnam (the gate to SEA) at the times, especially when there’s french intervention. There’s nothing Qing could do at the times to colonize naval territories (aside from Taiwan), it’s already too late because the westerners are already in Asia.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  496. @Daniel Chieh

    Ok let me ask a serious question… What of Japanese values does the west know about??? What the west knows about Japan is “good at electronics” and “follows our governmental and economic systems”. Most people in the west have zero clue about Japanese culture. Anime is a niche market in the west. In the same way Hong Kong kung fu movies were in the 70’s and 80’s. But at least those Hong Kong movies were 100% Asian (and Chinese specifically since Hong Kong people back then never denied being Chinese like the new generation)

    It’s not about ego… It’s really about self respect. All Asians have that problem in the 20th century when wanting to sell to the west. The exception was Bruce Lee – and that was because his pride welled up in him because of the discrimination he experienced in the US.
    Japan – I think because of the scars of WW2 it is more pronounced.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  497. @Deep Thought

    Yes – and now since the US wants to contain China – the US and by extension Japan and Australia – is backing Vietnam. It’s hypocrisy… But hypocrisy always backfires one way or another. The rest of the ASEAN countries knows the hypocrisy and so refuses to get involved. The Philippines because of their historical colonization by Spain and the US – it depends on who gets voted in. Duterte obviously called out the folly – but no telling about another administration.

    • Replies: @Deep Thought
  498. @songbird

    You are mostly correct. In fact there was great “anger” in the Chinese film industry over Kung Fu Panda series being so popular. Why? To paraphrase – they said: “this is a Chinese story and is worldwide popular – WE should have been the ones to make this and not Hollywood”.

    They do however understand the danger of Hollywood in China. That’s why only a certain number of Hollywood movies are allowed into the country every year. Nothing with gratuitous violence or overt sex scenes or overt gay agendas. Though a few other Asian nations also don’t allow those things such as Singapore (through the “refusal of classification” laws). I believe Indonesia and Malaysia do require some sort of censorship with certain topics in films.

  499. @showmethereal

    ‘China wants to lead, rather simply join’: top Australian diplomat takes aim at Beijing’s foreign policy

    Frances Adamson has accused Beijing of setting its own agenda internationally rather than working collaboratively with other countries

    She says the main challenge for Australia is helping to shape a new global order without the influence of an inwardly focused US

    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3111354/china-wants-lead-rather-simply-join-top-australian-diplomat

    How dare these Chinese actually WANT to lead???!!! That is an unbearable affront to the Whites’ dignity.

    Don’t they know that only the Whites are entitled to lead in this world? Now, “without the influence of an inwardly focused US”, “America’s deputy sheriff in Asia” must “shape a new global order”– that actually follows an OLD formula of domination by the White race– in which a dark, inconspicuous, PLACE in a corner will be reserved to put these over-ambitious Chinese in.

  500. Why not break all the posts into groups in different pages so that you don’t have to load all the posts in order to read the last few?

  501. @AP

    Oh ok – now I understand…. Though in terms of per capita that would be immensely tough since the population on the mainland is soooo much larger. I would give you Fujian province. Fujian passed Taiwan this year in GDP – but of course with a larger population it is lower per capita. But Fujian still has a higher share of rural population also. As it urbanizes it will reach parity per capita (compare Shanghai and the whole of Taiwan… urban Shanghai has a high per capita GDP and life expectancy in comparison to the whole island – but is similar when comparing just Taipei). Many Taiwan people already work in Xiamen for example. The quality of life and life expectancy there matches Taiwan cities and has the same Hokkien presence.

  502. I have been doing some thinking about China’s future GDP. I feel that China’s GDP in 2050 will plateau for a while at high 20k USD in today’s dollars. Meanwhile, the US’s GDP will stay stagnant double that of China but will eventually recede to high 30s (in today’s dollars).

    I feel the authors above failed to take into the account of the fluidity of world economics and assume everything will remain status quo. The US was a beneficiary of the tail end of the industrial revolution but the 21st century economy is drastically different. That’s why Trump won. There is a general dissatisfaction with the way things are going. Many are hoping of the resurgence of post-WW2 economy which will never happen. The post-colonial afterglow has dissipated and the world order has changed whether you can comprehend it or not. Most are still operating under the assumption that it is still a Western dominated world when is has already moved to a multi-polar world and China is slowly getting back to the pre-1800 economic dominance.

    In 2050, China will face a huge retiring population and a smaller workforce. There is a reason why China is rushing towards automation and AI to cover the gap. China’s post Mao citizens will be in position of leaderships and the old guards are all either dead or retired. While the current CCP regime is hell bent of controlling the Han nationalists by exerting more control on the populace, by 2050, the new generation of leaders will most likely embrace Han nationalism and the CCP will be swept away. It will be a “Bigger Taiwan” by then. There are enough supporters of a “Bigger Taiwan” around and many of the overseas Chinese, in South East Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other parts of the world would love to see that. We might see a resurgence of Sun-Yat-Sen-ism. Or we might see a Singapore-like style of governance.

  503. Rdm says:
    @Ron Unz

    Well, it would be utterly silly if I claim Chinese are peace-loving species and their way of life is an epitome of humanity and civilization. The emphasis is on the nature of the aggressiveness developed over centuries of national activities. Given the historical evidence of many periods of war in China, one would be naïve to think that all warriors be trained to only kill and capture the opponents.

    Let’s say Han Chinese reached the superiority of navy exploration during Ming Dynasty and arrived at the British Isles. They wanted to conquer the Europe, slowly making inroads from coastal area in the pretext of tea trading. Due to trade conflict, they destroyed a private property, Buckingham Palace.

    In 200 years, some retard Chinese comes into Unz webzine and proudly claim, “We Chinese are daring species and adventurous. Those crooked British are a piece of shit.”

    As a sane person without any philia or phobia, you’d question the stupidity of mankind.

    Just to give you a scale of each place.

    Buckingham Palace = 40 acres
    Old Summer Palace = 860 acres

    The palace was so large – covering more than 3.5 square kilometres (860 acres) – that it took 4,000 men 3 days of burning to destroy it.[4] Many exquisite artworks – sculptures, porcelain, jade, silk robes, elaborate textiles, gold objects and more – were looted and are now found in 47 museums around the world, according to UNESCO.

    Notre-Dame de Paris caught fire and the entire world moaned for national treasure.

  504. @Smith

    Why is it every chinese article will have you coming in trying to make it about China vs Vietnam? I am sorry to tell you, but no one is interested besides a few chinese anons who feels the need to respond to your comments.

    Please discuss the topic at hand. And if you don’t know anything, kindly stfu. Every damn article with your comments turns to shit tier, literally.

    • Replies: @Brian Damage
    , @Smith
  505. EldnahYm says:
    @Lake Wobegon

    You’re nitpicking over small potatoes. You should be sarcastically commenting about how absurd it is to suggest trade doesn’t matter considering the United States has been enforcing free trade deals all over the world for decades, being the world’s policeman post-WW2, and caring about the status of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Recent policy over the last four years is insignificant compared to all that.

    Either all the U.S. wailing about trade is cover for something else(like taking down the Soviet Union for just one example), or U.S. foreign policy is irrational. Or a combination of the two. Take your pick.

  506. EldnahYm says:
    @GuestAug

    It was because of Mao’s policies that so many Chinese were illiterate peasants for as long as they were.

    You have a point about opium though. Mao has to be regarded as the world’s most accomplished drug addiction therapist.

  507. @Lot

    Interesting comment.
    But I think there are additional important factors.
    Remember the US economy and ability to buy is boosted by the dollar being a reserve currency for the world, and the dollar being used for oil transactions. This can’t last and as the dollar falls the US will be less able to buy from the world. You also need to look at the continuing massive spending on the military industrial complex, again financed by the reserve dollar status… otherwise, where does the money come from?
    Finally, (for now) but certainly not least, is the crumbling US infrastructure which has to be rebuilt; how will this be paid for? If at all.
    And all this reflects on the devaluing of human capital in the US, poor education, for profit medical care, and massively inequality in income.
    Corrupt government has many consequences, and it just is not responsive, fast enough, to the needs of the people.

  508. @Astuteobservor II

    @Smith has no clue in the Sino dynamics in Asia and took everything at face value. If you ever been to Vietnam you would have realized that most of the affluent Vietnamese are Hans. And these Hans shape government policies. Sure, they might not be CCP Hans , more like the Hans in HK, Singapore, Taiwan and South East Asia, they are Hans nonetheless.

    It is like how Americans view the conflict between Taiwan And China as though it is like a conflict between US and Russia. It is much more complicated than that. Many in Taiwan have relatives in the Fujian province and vice versa. People in Taiwan prefer the system that have but at the same time envious of the sudden wealth on their home province. Most Taiwanese would rather be free of the CCP grip until China outgrow CCP.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  509. @showmethereal

    This fell almost into “this is too crazy to reply to”, but the answer is simply that you are overwhelmingly wrong.

    You strike me as someone with profoundly little knowledge of the West. This makes your appraisal of the West’s understanding of Japan(or Asia in general) even more shockingly wildly random.

    Japan manages to broadcast its values of gambatte, its vision of historical events(“We did nothing wrong, surely.”), its particular forms of respect and cooperation, even its fetishes and language. Consider something even as brief at this, which is clearly nationalistic but nonetheless would likely be cheered on even by a foreign audience already attached to the characters in A Place Further than the Universe which claims that Japan was isolated after WW2 and “bullied”, but nonetheless proved their worth to become awesome(!) in an episode. Because, as usual, a culture tends to portray itself in positive terms, those who have identified with the show will at least agree with that attitude(which ignores the fact that Japan was being isolated for a reason).

    Along with video games and other media, it manages a sweep far wider than the Hong Kong movies and had devotees much more into it – and as per Pareto Principle, you only need a small number of dedicated individuals to make a big difference. And its not that small of a number.

    In summation, you’re just totally off kilter here. Conveying the values they wanted, even if they use characters which look profoundly caucasian(questionable at times), is hugely influential and beneficial for them in terms of soft power. Fortunately, China is doing something with Honkai Impact, Genshin Impact, etc and not following your methodology of irritating audience members.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  510. GuestAug says:
    @Tyler Durden

    For a country that has not invented anything in 600 years, as you claim, the Chinese file a surprisingly large number of patent applications

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Intellectual_Property_Indicators

  511. Smith says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    I wanted to post some angry replies, but then again, I think I have danced this dance too many times. I want to clarify that we were discussing the capacity of Ming chinks colonization during Zheng He times, Vietnam is just a part of the argument.

    There were chink shills who believe that during Ming era, they ruled the world, and only spared the world from chink colonization due to their oh so peaceful culture, I smash their delusion by pointing out weakness of the Ming during the times, and how they cannot go on naval expansion/colonization as the whiteys did.

    The chinks who go on to attack me and Vietnam just show how insecure they are regarding history.

    I have already discussed the topic of GDP above, and I agree with A. Karlin that China will massively expand their GDP during the upcoming years. This is due to the economic model used, and has less to do with traditional chink culture or Han genetic or whatsoever.

    My only other point is with singy chink, and his disbelief in Japan soft power vs the current chink soft power.

  512. @Daniel Chieh

    Is this a joke? The overwhelming majority of westerners have not the slightest clue of what you mention. You must be talking about people who took some Asian studies classes at their university. That is a minority of the population
    In any event this is about GDP… Stop wasting space claiming westerners know Japanese values. “Joe Six Pack” who grew up playing videogames in the arcade and at home knows as little about Japanese culture as he knows about what China’s GDP relative to the US in 2050 will be.
    Playing Shinobi on Sega didnt make him a fan of Japan. He just thinks it was cool for a ninja to kill enemies. It did add to Japanese GDP when he bought the game. But Joe Six Pack prefers a Smith & Wesson pistol now rather than learning the art on ninjitsu – which actually was adapted from Chinese military training manuals on stealth warfare – but I digress…. So now that Smith &Wesson adds to US GDP – not Japan’s. His kid is most likely playing Call Of Duty killing people with guns in the game and practicing no Japanese ethics…. And adding nothing to Japan’s GDP as that game is American made.

    Now Toyotas and Hondas do more for Japan’s soft power and GDP. People equate those with Japanese thought in terms of long term reliability and efficiency. Even if that is not necessarily anything that sets them apart now – that is cemented in the minds of westerners…

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  513. @Smith

    The chinks who go on to attack me and Vietnam just show how insecure they are regarding history.

    YOU are the one “who goes on to attack Chinese and China” non-stop on this forum. The Chinese posters are merely RESPONDING to your mad assaults.

    If China/Chinese really are as bad as you claim, then you are merely admitting that nam/viets are just small versions of China/Chinese– from intellectual ability to chauvinist attitude, from body size to penis size– which, of course, is the chauvinist Chinese’s view about nam/viets, and which is also the view the viets resent the MOST!!!
    .
    If you were a real viet, WHY are you working so hard to propagate a narrative that the viets hate so much???!!!

    • Replies: @Smith
  514. @Showmethereal

    Your argument is incoherent on multiple levels.

    1. Someone who played Ninja Gaiden enough to actually form parts of his identity from it will identify with the main character and sympathize to formerly foreign names and ideas. He will find the ideas of ninjas, demons and the outlines of the story to be cool. He will associate his happiness while playing with these formerly foreign aspects such as Japanese words. He will likely find girls in yukatas sexy.

    He doesn’t need to want to be a ninja. The impact of soft power is enough in that it builds a sense of familiarity.

    If for some reason someday he ever needs to make a decision on something Chinese vs Japanese, our video game player has a now unconscious basis of positive feelings for Japanese.

    2. You are incorrect on popularity. Japanese themed games, almost surprisingly, smash record sales.

    https://gamingbolt.com/sekiro-shadows-die-twice-tops-media-create-charts-with-almost-160k-copies-sold

    Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice is now the developer’s second title to reach “No. 1 in All Formats” in the UK, with the first being Dark Souls 3, which released in 2016.

    The UK is part of the West. Dark Souls 3 was ALSO another Japanese game from the same studio. But even if you were correct, Call of Duty runs on PlayStation, which is Japanese.

    3. Nonsequitor of origin of Japanese style is meaningless. It doesn’t matter where ninjitsu comes from. It doesn’t matter where flour from bread comes from, the consumer only experiences the end product and makes associations on the bread with the store and brand he purchased. In fact, if China has the same base qualities but is unable to make it marketable, it just shows the Chinese as being additionally incapable.

    Fortunately, like I said, the more successful Chinese soft power generators like miohiyo are ignoring your line of thinking. It is a concern if your line of thinking is common, though, because its immeasurably wrong and fundamentally poor for soft power. China has been horrible at the latter. She needs to get over herself and learn from those who do it better.

  515. @Smith

    And you direct the conversation towards this in every fucking article on china.

    That is trolling. Almost on a professional level.

    I read almost every article about china on unz. The tail end of every comments section has your retarded comments steering the conversation to China vs Vietnam.

    Every single one.

    Please kindly stfu about it. No one gives a fuck about Vietnam geopolitically or economically. Or how China has wronged your country. Most of it are incoherent babble.

    Get fucking over it. Show the Chinese you are better by making your country better. You need to learn from thulean friend on how to attack China.

    • Replies: @Brian Damage
    , @HeebHunter
  516. @Ron Unz

    I cancelled my subscription in 1985. The Economist used to be a tutorial in economic theory. It became much more newsy and foreign affairs partly to chase the US market and partly because international trade was improving. They have wandered far from technical political economy since.

  517. @Ron Unz

    The whole reason to burn down the Summer Palace was to carry out a bloodless, more or less, humiliation of the Emperor rather than fight an actual war. It was not a consequence of war, it was an alternative. It worked. Significant bloodshed was avoided.

  518. @d dan

    The British were invited. The Sultan of Kedah wanted support against his enemies. 200 arrived at Georgetown.

    • Replies: @d dan
  519. d dan says:
    @Philip Owen

    “The British were invited. The Sultan of Kedah wanted support against his enemies. “

    So was Zheng He. But unlike the British, Portuguese, French or Dutch, Zheng He did not try to colonize any of the tiny kingdoms, nor capitalize on the conflicts among them. The few big military operations he did was to help the Palembang defeated a 5000-men strong Chinese pirate group led by Chen Zuyi 陈祖义. By that time, there were already big Chinese diaspora who were friendly to the Ming, including many militarily superior Chinese forces/friendly kingdoms, so Zheng He could easily set up many colonies if he or the Ming emperor wanted. Instead, Zheng He concentrated his missions to almost exclusive peaceful purposes. He presented gifts of gold, silver, porcelain, and silk to the locals, and in return, received novelties such as ostriches, zebras, camels, and ivory. He built temples, mosque and monuments, brought foreign diplomats to China, developed relations between China and Islamic countries. For example, in 1961, the Indonesian Islamic leader and scholar Hamka credited Zheng He for playing an important role in the development of Islam in Indonesia.

    Zheng He’s fleet was delicious – it is still making so many Whites and half Whites angry after 600 years. What is little known is that China actually has a long history of extensive seafaring and overseas trades and activities, dating back to the Han dynasty 2000 years ago. For example, during the Three Kingdoms Period, the king of Wu sent a 20-year diplomatic mission led by Zhu Ying and Kang Tai along the coast of Asia, which reached as far as the Eastern Roman Empire. By Song dynasty, 200 years before Zheng He, Chinese already established a large networks of commercial trade outposts, interests and settlements throughout the South East Asia and India Ocean. There were also joint anti-pirate activities with local kingdom and even European forces.

    Ref: Deng, Gang (2005). Chinese Maritime Activities and Socioeconomic Development, c. 2100 BC – 1900 AD. Greenwood Press.

    • Thanks: