The Unz Review • An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersRussian Reaction Blog
Chinese GDP in 2050: the Debate
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

Where will Chinese GDP end up: At ~US level, or 2-3x the US level?

Very important question – after all, it will determine whether the world will remain unipolar (if China ~= US, the latter will remain dominant thanks to its alliance system and soft power) or “bifurcated” between a US-Western sphere and a Sino-centric one.

Have been gathering predictions on this question (in terms of nominal, not PPP, GDP).

***

Arguments for why China will not much exceed the US from Thulean Friend:

– China’s growth path cannot be compared to SK/Japan/Taiwan because they paid an extraordinary political price (becoming a US puppet) in order to get the “green light” to pursue some pretty insane protectionist measures, e.g. Korea outright banned car imports in the 1960s. All of them did massive currency manipulation.

– The US tolerated some of this for Beijing as long as it believed that China would essentially end up a Big Taiwan. Playing to US rules/diktats. That obviously didn’t happen so any conciliatory treatment is now out the window unless Deus Ex Machina happens (CCP falls from power etc). That is why extrapolating from SK/Taiwan/Japan is mistaken. The geopolitical situation is radically different. The US and its colonial proxies still largely control the developed world demand for export markets. This is crucial for any developing country, which China still is by any reasonable definition.

– China is a big economy but it is also a huge country. Per capita GDP is only ~$10K. That means it is simply too poor to rely mostly on the domestic market without gorging on debt. Which is what it has been doing.

– TSF (Total Social Financing) is now reaching close to 300% of GDP. Contra clown doomers like Gordon Chang, China isn’t going to collapse. But it will face Japanification, but crucially at much lower income levels.

– China can still add leverage for 10-15 years before really starting to be hit by lower dynamism. So even in my ‘bearish’ scenario, China will continue converging with the West for the time being, but the price paid will be more and more debt. This may not seem like a big deal in these Coronavirus times, but China was adding debt far faster than any Western country in the 2010-2020 period. This was not the case in the 1980-2010 time frame. When a system starts adding huge amounts of debt to grow, it shows you something is broken. This is especially the case when they are still quite poor. By comparison, the Czech Republic’s total debt to GDP(public+private) is half that of China, despite being twice as rich.

– Once China hits this wall, it will not collapse and probably not even fall behind much either. It will stabilise at or slightly above the US GDP and keep pace, but not overtake it further. I predict China will succeed in many of its key objectives (technological self-sufficiency) but it will fail to dislodge the US as the key hegemon. This is because the US controls a huge colonial puppet network which can act as a gigantic force multiplier. China is simply not capable of reproducing that. The US has Germany and Japan; China has Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan. Russia is the only half-decent friendly country to China, but it isn’t as submissive the US colonial subjects are and likely never will be.

– The “final form of China” will be very significant adversary which will have unique capabilities of tharting US imperial policies in its own vicinity but not much outside of it. From Beijing’s perspective, this may be enough. It will be strong enough to avoid being bullied and can go toe-to-toe in its core areas of interest. What happens outside of that area may be less important. China’s rise will thus not significantly affect the balance of power in the MENA region or in LatAm. Nor will Chinese influence supplant US colonial diktat in Europe except in a few stray countries like possibly Serbia or other Balkanoids, which will be the exceptions that prove the rule.

I will end by saying that I hope I am wrong. The world would be a better place if I am. But I have to separate my wishes from my dispassionate analysis.

***

I am not going to spend much time making my case since I have already made most of my arguments in prior posts and have been doing so for a long time (actually, since 2008, when I began blogging).

In particular, see:

  • Sinotriumph 101
  • Review of Kroeber’s book on Chinese economy addresses many individual arguments (e.g. the question of Chinese debt – it is overwhelmingly internal, so as with Japan, so really more of a book-keeping issue than a genuine long-term growth risk)

One of the pillars of my worldview is the centrality of human capital, as proxied by national IQs, to economic performance. Furthermore, the more optimal that economic systems become, as they have been doing so for decades prior, the fewer gaps we see across different countries in “expected” and “realized” GDPcc. This is because only high IQ nations are capable of maintaining the complex “O-Ring” type processes that separate truly developed/First World nations from the rest. As more and more countries adopt similar “best policy” cocktails, so the underlying human capital differences can be expected to play ever more of a dominant role.

As pertains to China, as can be predicted from its human capital levels, it has been rapidly closing the gap with the developed world, though consistently lagging South Korea and Taiwan by around 20-25 years thanks largely to its prior Maoist lunacies. Considering cultural similarity and broadly analogous human capital levels, we can expect that China will likewise converge to their GDPcc (PPP) levels in another 20 years, with nominal GDP levels catching up soon after, as they usually do when technologically complex countries reach a high level of GDP (PPP).

Now I am highly skeptical that China will become 5x+ as rich as the US (i.e. fully converge or even exceed America in per capita terms), though it needs to be noted that some models, such as Heiner Rindermann’s in Cognitive Capitalism, suggest just that. For reasons that are remain unresolved, the US is considerably richer than naively predicted by its human capital, while the developed East Asian polities (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.) are considerably poorer. I have explored the possible causes of this in National Wealth and IQ at the Edge: American Exceptionalism, East Asian Mediocrity.

However, what I do find striking about it is that many of the factors I identified as possible causes of this “American exceptionalism” are set to move sharply against the US in the following decades:

  • The US has long turbocharged its economy by vacuuming up the most vigorous global smart fractions, but its cachet has been plummeting in recent years and if anything is set to accelerate given the neo-Maoist lunacy that has overtaken it. E.g., most Chinese graduate college students in the US began to repatriate as opposed to seeking to stay on about a decade ago now.
  • The US has long had high labor mobility by both global and European, but that’s going down now.
  • Almost all US population growth from now to 2050 will accrue to lower IQ ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic Whites are in outright natural decline.
  • The US dollar’s status as world reserve currency is estimated to tack on an 5-10% in GDP on account of something called “American alpha” (though it is not without its drawbacks). But will it hold this position indefinitely?
  • Catastrophic events: There is the chance that either the US or China will be interrupted by a collapse (e.g. state dissolution; civil war), as opposed to their existing trends of decline and rise, respectively. At this point, the likelihood of this must be considered to be higher for the US, even if it remains modest in absolute terms.

Conversely, while many people treat the growth trajectory of South Korea or Taiwan as the utmost “high end” of what China can realistically hope for with its big state sector, I don’t think it’s all that obvious either:

  • Although China’s 1.4 billion population is often talked of as a liability – just imagine managing so many people! (no matter that you have corresponding more managers to do it with) – it is in reality a huge asset thanks to the unparalleled economies of scale it opens up. At a very fundamental level, China doesn’t need world markets.
  • Maoism was bad, but one thing it did do was destroy old traditional social structures (e.g. Chinese employers don’t feel the same obligations to their workers as Japanese ones). This ironically may make it possible for China to achieve a higher peak GDPcc, all else equal.
  • Even within East Asia – why should China’s trajectory necessarily follow that of Korea or Taiwan (at best?). Why not that of Singapore, at least as pertains to its urban regions?

So I would be very surprised if Chinese GDP isn’t at least twice as high as US GDP in 2050. My expectation is that it will more likely be three times as big.

***

What do my Twitter followers think?

  • Starting off with the distribution in the first question, then further subdividing those ranges as per the distributions within the next three questions;
  • Taking either midpoints where possible, or substituting guesstimated values for “greater” or “lesser” than (e.g. 90% for those who thought “<100%” and 500% for those who thought “450%+ (richer US per cap)”;

… my Twitter followers think that

  • The Chinese economy will be ~214% that of the US in 2050.
  • 189% of the US if we instead take logarithmic averages, which is perhaps more appropriate here.

At any rate, they seem to think it will be a very close competition. This seems to reflect consensus opinion – a 2x difference is what the majority of economists (so far as I can tell) expect, and what most of the models I’ve seen suggest.

But economists and their models don’t tend to be IQpilled, their proxies of “human capital” are more often things like “years of schooling” which are much less useful, so it would seem to be a good rule of thumb to adjust their projections for the low IQ countries downwards and for the high IQ countries upwards. Also why you should invest into North Korean stonks whenever it becomes possible.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: China, Gambling, Prediction, Sinotriumph, United States 
Hide 604 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

    • Troll: Father O'Hara
  2. It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces. The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade. On the other hand, others (e.g., Guangxi) have been the simultaneous recipients of massive infrastructure investment, which is an obvious aid to growth. Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality. At best, Fujian province might fully converge with Taiwan, but I don’t think this is likely due to mainland institutions generally accepted as being inferior to Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese. However, due to the sheer economic size of China’s leading cities and their clear upward economic trajectory, it’s reasonable to believe China’s GDP per capita (PPP) will surpass Russia within the next two decades, getting China’s economy close to twice the size of the U.S. by PPP.

    • Replies: @Wyatt
    @E. Harding


    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.
     
    Now this made me reconsider my entire position. There are innumerable managerial and ecological problems that could snowball into massive, unsolvable issues for the CCP to deal with. If there's a large enough population that gets displaced due to man-made quakes, high toxin concentration or industries shutting down, the Chinese government can't just hush up tens of millions of people very easily.

    Likewise, we've seen nationwide burnout of east Asians when they're pushed too hard for too long. The Japanese burned out first and the Koreans are following shortly behind. It took half a century, but it happened and their economies are suffering because of it. How long the Chinese will last before people just start saying "no," I can't say for certain, but I would hazard a guess that once the average Chinaman has a moderately decent lifestyle that is capable of supporting a family, they'll have about 40-50 years.

    Further, I don't know if the Chinese could ever produce a truly robust middle class (and thus a reliable source of taxpayers, workers and soldiers with acceptable education and values) with the kind of consumption culture/materialism that is marketed in the west and which has sunk into the east. It takes huge numbers of people to satisfy the demands of just the United States. Countries no longer have middle classes that are supported by the nation. They always require some kind of foreign economy to provide cheap labor, food, raw materials or consumer goods. In China's case, they will always need oil from elsewhere and if they continue their ecological hellscape nightmare, they're going to need food as well.

    While China might eclipse the US for sheer size, I doubt that it would be sustainable in the long run. There are way too many unknowable factors at play that no one person would be able to accurately guess even half of them. All it takes is just a few bad factors coming into play simultaneously to tank the whole thing. What if the coof had been just a tad more lethal? We could have been looking at tens of millions of dead Chinese and global lockdowns which paralyzed their growth terribly.

    I say watch for anomalies and make no bets.
    , @Hyperborean
    @E. Harding


    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces.

    [...]

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.
     

    If provincial population ratios remained static I think this would be true, however while regional inequality will increase, I don't think it will significantly affect national GDP per capita due to internal migration making the centres of population density increasingly centred in the coast and the provincial capitals.

    Even if left-behind regions lag behind they will comprise an ever lower portion of the country's population and become more irrelevant from a national perspective (though of course, not particularly pleasant for the remaining residents).

    1997, direction of migration flows:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/0BtI_QURfWy-89RwnV3stxfG73YOAkPFiFYnkLHx0hudYpmwrDUWMkGkvG6nUlI4YpxPoFJI98QfhaC4xSPmhPYpxgEcwysgKeAb_zwjLFEcaGtIlfc=w1280

    1990-2005 aggregate, a numerical estimate:

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2012/02/articles/main/20120225_CHM972.png

    For the last series (unfortunately, due to broken secondary links, I don't know the date for this data):

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uYwATDJNhg8/Ui7L0rRaVDI/AAAAAAAAKQs/sQaOliArUKE/s1600/Three+mega+regions.png

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M_Z3CaP9_WQ/Ui7MIE9KbRI/AAAAAAAAKQ0/bj34g1D4aZQ/s1600/Lesser+coastal+regions.png

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9eavELsLdlE/Ui7MxZObDzI/AAAAAAAAKRE/Cq7zh0hoouw/s1600/provincial+capitals.png

    http://matthartzell.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinese-domestic-migration-map.html?m=1

    Note for reasons explained in the post the percentages in the more thinly populated western provinces will end up looking more extreme than the population shifts really are.

    ----

    To Karlin: your "American Alpha" link is broken.

    Replies: @songbird

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @E. Harding


    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.
     
    Interesting and TIL. I knew they have long had lower growth, but not to that extent. I checked provincial GDPcc numbers, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are all higher in 2019 vs. 2011, but only marginally so, meanwhile most of the rest of the country has moved sharply upwards, as expected. Heilongjiang is in fact now the second poorest province by that metric after Gansu.

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.
     
    Doesn't necessarily follow, North-East might be slipping behind, but the interior proper (e.g. Sichuan) doesn't seem to have been slipping behind the seaboard.
  3. It will either way – not because of some ludicrous Chinese growth, but due to American decline and collapse

    • Replies: @Mary Marianne
    @Svevlad

    I can't see how the USA will not collapse within the next 10 years when, from an outsider's perspective, it looks like everyone has gone to the nutty-bin.

    Replies: @Dmitry

  4. One important point -Taiwan and Japan saw their price levels in dollars sag due to the rise of China as a major exporter, thus hurting the size of their GDPs by exchange rates. There is no “next China”. Therefore, one can rest assured that China’s price level in dollars will not fall or unexpectedly stagnate once it hits the same point in its development Taiwan and Japan did.

    The biggest headwind China has facing it is undeniably its demographics.

    • Thanks: Rahan
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    @E. Harding

    What do you think of the Chinese 2035 plan that was just announced? 25,000$ per capita GDP by 2035. 15 years to go from 11000$ to 25000$.

    Replies: @danand, @Rahan

  5. Both the numerator (China GDP) and denominator (U.S. GDP) need careful consideration.
    ____

    If Team Blue wins, they will prevents U.S. manufacturing from recovering. Crippling U.S. productivity with “woke” service to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce makes it much easier for everyone to gain versus the U.S. including China. Odds are good that China will easily exceed 200% versus a Fascist Blue U.S. with unproductive spending on suppressing the freedom of U.S. citizens. 300%+ could be achieved if the Nazicrats do enough damage to the U.S.

    If Team Red wins, they will clamp down on IP theft and China market manipulation. This will boost U.S. GDP and limit China GDP growth. A growing U.S. Economy will be much harder to run down. After Barack Hussein’s failed presidency and “jobless” recovery, the U.S. could have a massive boom for a decade or more if Team Swastika Blue can be destroyed. Trying to run up 200% versus a successful U.S. Populist, MAGA economic renaissance is more-or-less impossible.
    ____

    There are also gigantic issues internal to China. While it will be long term good, there is huge risk during retooling:
    — From an export exploitation CCP Elite economy
    — To an internal Chinese Citizen driven anti-Elite economy

    Best Case — Even if everything goes smoothly there is likely to be a tough decade or more as Chinese exports are shunned faster than they can develop new internal markets.

    Worst Case — The Chinese Elite class that controls the State Owned Enterprises [SOE] resists Citizen Empowered internal competition. None of these scenarios are helpful and a few are potentially catastrophic.

    The CCP Elite Class demonstrated total incompetence and short sightedness trying to handle economic change for a small portion of the population in Hong Kong. It is not clear that they have learned anything from this fiasco, so those betting on CCP Elite “Best Case” behaviour are rather out on a limb.
    ____

    As a side note, trying to score the competition will be very difficult. Chinese national statistics are burdened by substantial inaccuracy and corruption: (1)

    In 2018, Guanghan reported that its economy grew 9 per cent to 45.1 billion yuan (US$6.5 billion) – significantly more than the national average of 6.6 per cent. Government officials also tried to block law enforcement officials from inspecting its data and violated the regulation requiring the statistical bureau to take responsibility for filing accurate data on progress in meeting economic targets, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report published earlier this week.

    Doubts over the quality of China’s economic data have risen in recent years, especially after large-scale manipulation of economic data was revealed in Liaoning province, the Inner Mongolia autonomous area and the city of Tianjin, with local officials under pressure to deliver economic achievement to meet promotion criteria.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) From 2019: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3015206/chinas-economic-census-undercovers-more-fake-data-officials

    • Replies: @Gandofff
    @A123

    Wokeness was on the march throughout the 4 years of Trump's Presidency, so I doubt team red winning will make a difference. What needed to happen was actual consequences, tax increases, budget cutbacks for the military, academia, and the deep state, etc. Team red proved itself too weak to impose them. If all you wanted to see was rhetorical counter-attacks, I'm sure Trumpism looked great to you.

    , @Craken
    @A123

    Just about the only good comment in the thread--and better than Karlin's OP.

    RE China's fake economic numbers: there's reason to believe that national GDP is overstated (maybe 10-20%) and its total debt (TSF) is understated. The official numbers put TSF at 280% of GDP, double 2007's level. But, with reasonable adjustments, that debt-to-GDP ratio rises closer to 350%. In order to get their current 6% growth they have to shovel enormous amounts of debt into the system. Much of that debt goes bad, and if it were written down that 6% number would drop to 3-4%. That's China's real growth rate: 3-4%. At best, it might sustain that rate and achieve real growth of about 170% in 30 years. Assuming real GDP today is $12 trillion, my guess instead is 120% real growth, leading to a GDP of 27 trillion in today's dollars.

    I'm not quite as pessimistic about America's fate, but I agree that it faces a binary choice.

  6. Why not start with numbers and a simple model?
    1) Estimated Population in 2050 (source: Pew research):
    US: 401 million
    China: 1.38 billion
    2) 2019 GDP per capita (nominal) (source: Wikipedia):
    US: 65,281
    Japan: 40,247
    South Korea: 31,762
    Taiwan: 26,910 (2020 estimates)
    China: 10,262
    3) Will the relative GDP per capita between the aforementioned countries, other than China, change over time? I think the safest assumption is that they will not, i.e. in 2050 US GDP per capita will still be more than double of South Koreans GDP per capita.
    3) Which country will China converge to? I think the safest assumption is Taiwan as they are the most similar people. Note: With convergence to Taiwan I mean that China converges to Taiwan´s GDP per capita as a % of US´s GDP per capita.
    4) Note that 3) is the ceiling for China. So, how realistic is it for China to converge to 3) by 2050? This requires to look at past growth rates of China and make a prediction about future Chinese growth rates (the growth rates are going to be lower than in the past). Moreover, keep in mind that the US and the country China will converge to will grow, too (safest assumption: both will have the same growth rates as the US had over the last 20 years).
    5) Multiply what you have gotten in 4) by 1) for both the US and China
    6) Compare the results 🙂

    • Replies: @128
    @OneTimeCommentator

    I think China will stall out at where Slovakia's, Latvia's, or Polands's is relative to Taiwanese GDP per capita.

    , @reiner Tor
    @OneTimeCommentator

    Taiwan is not a real country (inasmuch as it’s not internationally recognized), which probably hurts and has hurt its growth to an extent, like reducing FDI or causing some level of capital flight, and brain drain. China might have other issues with similar results (it’s nominally a communist country, and a totalitarian dictatorship), so perhaps FDI is not as high as it could be either, and perhaps some people leave it due to this as well. Though I think the level of the latter, the human capital flight, is not as high as in Taiwan, I’m willing to say these factors even out. But there’s a chance that these factors net favor Mainland China over Taiwan.

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Also perhaps SJW politics are going to hurt America and the US sphere economies relative to China. Does it hurt productivity to have woman quotas or other diversity quotas in force? Maybe it doesn’t. But maybe it does. China doesn’t have these. Greater meritocracy might help China.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

  7. @E. Harding
    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces. The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade. On the other hand, others (e.g., Guangxi) have been the simultaneous recipients of massive infrastructure investment, which is an obvious aid to growth. Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality. At best, Fujian province might fully converge with Taiwan, but I don't think this is likely due to mainland institutions generally accepted as being inferior to Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese. However, due to the sheer economic size of China's leading cities and their clear upward economic trajectory, it's reasonable to believe China's GDP per capita (PPP) will surpass Russia within the next two decades, getting China's economy close to twice the size of the U.S. by PPP.

    Replies: @Wyatt, @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.

    Now this made me reconsider my entire position. There are innumerable managerial and ecological problems that could snowball into massive, unsolvable issues for the CCP to deal with. If there’s a large enough population that gets displaced due to man-made quakes, high toxin concentration or industries shutting down, the Chinese government can’t just hush up tens of millions of people very easily.

    Likewise, we’ve seen nationwide burnout of east Asians when they’re pushed too hard for too long. The Japanese burned out first and the Koreans are following shortly behind. It took half a century, but it happened and their economies are suffering because of it. How long the Chinese will last before people just start saying “no,” I can’t say for certain, but I would hazard a guess that once the average Chinaman has a moderately decent lifestyle that is capable of supporting a family, they’ll have about 40-50 years.

    Further, I don’t know if the Chinese could ever produce a truly robust middle class (and thus a reliable source of taxpayers, workers and soldiers with acceptable education and values) with the kind of consumption culture/materialism that is marketed in the west and which has sunk into the east. It takes huge numbers of people to satisfy the demands of just the United States. Countries no longer have middle classes that are supported by the nation. They always require some kind of foreign economy to provide cheap labor, food, raw materials or consumer goods. In China’s case, they will always need oil from elsewhere and if they continue their ecological hellscape nightmare, they’re going to need food as well.

    While China might eclipse the US for sheer size, I doubt that it would be sustainable in the long run. There are way too many unknowable factors at play that no one person would be able to accurately guess even half of them. All it takes is just a few bad factors coming into play simultaneously to tank the whole thing. What if the coof had been just a tad more lethal? We could have been looking at tens of millions of dead Chinese and global lockdowns which paralyzed their growth terribly.

    I say watch for anomalies and make no bets.

  8. So this is all assuming natural human capital is still the main factor in 2050 I guess.

    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic. On the other hand, China will probably be quicker to start with embryo selection/genetic engineering. Even a few years difference there could be a huge economic advantage.

    I assume oil won’t be that important in 2050, that’s an advantage for a large net importer like China.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Some Guy


    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic.

     

    But it looks like the US Gang of Four is comfortably leading the race, so one should quite possibly instead expect 10-20 years of US Cultural Revolution before things start to change back, or even longer. Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won't be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    Replies: @Some Guy

  9. What if the coof had been just a tad more lethal? We could have been looking at tens of millions of dead Chinese and global lockdowns which paralyzed their growth terribly.

    This is trolling; if 2020 proved anything, it is that China has much better pandemic preparedness than the United States. And coronavirus killing tens of millions would have required plague-level lethality, making it much easier for China (and the rest of the world, if it wasn’t completely stupid) to have handled early on. A virus as deadly as the plague would inevitably have resulted in less worldwide deaths than the actual coronavirus.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
  10. When discussing asian progress it’s often assumed that high asian IQ is going to be a major factor and potentially something that drives that region past the west. One point that’s often made (and could possibly be true) is that asians may be disadvantaged by a lower standard deviation in their IQ scores, but what I never hear discussed is the possibility that asians are simply precocious and show their potential at an earlier age, whereas whites are slower to develop. The main reason I think this is the UK education statistics, where whites do terribly on the GCSE, taken at age 16:

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/gcse-results-attainment-8-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest

    White average score 46.1, black 45, Chinese 64.2, non-Chinese asian (mostly south asian) 50.4.

    A levels:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/a-levels-apprenticeships-further-education/students-aged-16-to-18-achieving-3-a-grades-or-better-at-a-level/latest

    11% of whites get 3 As or more, 25.7% of Chinese, 11% of non-Chinese asians and 5.5% of blacks.

    And college graduates:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/higher-education/undergraduate-degree-results/latest

    30.9% of whites get a first class degree, 22.7% of asians total (presumably including Chinese this time as they’re not listed as a separate category) and 14% of blacks. Over the 3 stages the white students overtake the others, although it’s likely the Chinese are still ahead in college it does go to show things like the PISA test at age 15 and national IQ results (I’m not sure but I imagine many of the numbers must come from schools) may not tell the full story if some races are simply faster to mature than others. My own anecdotal evidence from college in Ireland, where I ended up working on projects with a lot of Chinese students, is that they tended to struggle. One even told me herself that though our colleges attract some of their highest achieving students, they really struggle when they come here. I mainly put that down to the language barrier but it’s still interesting.

    There would be some logic to asians being faster to mature, they are physically a little bit smaller than whites and in general I’m pretty sure that smaller humans (and animals in general) tend to mature faster. Of course, China doesn’t need to fully live up to its national IQ to overtake the US, but it’s still interesting to consider that their IQ might not be all it’s cracked up to be.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Tommy Vercetti

    It's an interesting thought. Though the early childhood tests of ability show that blacks mature fastest and Asians the slowest, with whites in the middle. Blacks then die first and Asians last, even after accounting for lifestyle. So it seems like a pretty consistent and continuous pattern, and your thesis contradicts it.

    Those results could also be explained if the earlier tests catered better to Asian strengths (eg. math IQ) while later tests catered to other abilities, verbal IQ and so on, where they didn't stand out as much.

    Replies: @Lot

  11. Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    I don’t get the argument on north east. It’s not growing as much as the rest of China, so doom. The Chinese are intent on urbanising their population over time, eventually they will get to that. This will offset to a large degree the demographic deficit as they age, that is a real problem but probably exaggerated and no worse than the west. The terrifying debt is internal.

    The idea that they will face tailwinds in exports is odd given the RECP and the recent investment deal with the EU.

    The same with oil, China is moving to renewables pretty fast.

    At any rate we will know in a few years. The trend growth for China is supposed to be 6% over the next few years, starting at 8% next year . That’s enough to double over about 11 years.
    Rule of 70.

    Ok so let’s assume the US grows at 2% in that time. That would be a 24% growth, of there’s no recession.

    If we are at parity now (and remember the us will have significant negative gdp this year) then it would only take a few more years for China to double the gdp of the US. Maybe 2035 at the latest.

    We will know in a few years. If China’s growth moderates to the 3-4% level in five years it will take a lot longer.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Eugene Norman


    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.
     
    These are obviously city points. It's like making assumptions about Russia's GDP based on Moscow, USA's based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA's per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA's GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal, @Ray Caruso

    , @Shortsword
    @Eugene Norman

    Hong Kong, Singapore and Macau can't be compared to normal countries. Hong Kong and Singapore are centres for finance, services and R&D, and Macau's economy is based around gambling tourism.

    , @Erik Sieven
    @Eugene Norman

    "Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k" China won't converge to those levels for the same reason European countries do not converge to Luxembourg or Switzerland.

  12. @E. Harding
    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces. The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade. On the other hand, others (e.g., Guangxi) have been the simultaneous recipients of massive infrastructure investment, which is an obvious aid to growth. Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality. At best, Fujian province might fully converge with Taiwan, but I don't think this is likely due to mainland institutions generally accepted as being inferior to Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese. However, due to the sheer economic size of China's leading cities and their clear upward economic trajectory, it's reasonable to believe China's GDP per capita (PPP) will surpass Russia within the next two decades, getting China's economy close to twice the size of the U.S. by PPP.

    Replies: @Wyatt, @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces.

    […]

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.

    If provincial population ratios remained static I think this would be true, however while regional inequality will increase, I don’t think it will significantly affect national GDP per capita due to internal migration making the centres of population density increasingly centred in the coast and the provincial capitals.

    Even if left-behind regions lag behind they will comprise an ever lower portion of the country’s population and become more irrelevant from a national perspective (though of course, not particularly pleasant for the remaining residents).

    1997, direction of migration flows:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/0BtI_QURfWy-89RwnV3stxfG73YOAkPFiFYnkLHx0hudYpmwrDUWMkGkvG6nUlI4YpxPoFJI98QfhaC4xSPmhPYpxgEcwysgKeAb_zwjLFEcaGtIlfc=w1280

    1990-2005 aggregate, a numerical estimate:

    For the last series (unfortunately, due to broken secondary links, I don’t know the date for this data):

    http://matthartzell.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinese-domestic-migration-map.html?m=1

    Note for reasons explained in the post the percentages in the more thinly populated western provinces will end up looking more extreme than the population shifts really are.

    —-

    To Karlin: your “American Alpha” link is broken.

    • Thanks: E. Harding
    • Replies: @songbird
    @Hyperborean

    The US is viewed as a high mobility country, but I know people who refuse to move to areas where they would have a higher standard living (ex: a much better house, at a much cheaper price) because they don't like the demographics of the state they would be moving to. I presume China, being more homogeneous, would not suffer this problem to the same extent. Of course, this might be balanced out by the fact that they don't have "yellow flight", from their urban centers. But I understand that many still have lengthy commutes.

    Of course, unions never really achieved power in China, so there might be less impetus for businesses to move. And I'm not sure whether the one child policy might tie people down more than if there were multiple siblings. But on the whole, it seems like moving to depressed areas might be more attractive than in India, where people might dislike crossing tribal boundaries.

    In the US, areas where people moved away from (racially white) became reforested, and considered scenic places where you could observe nature, and good places for recreation.

  13. China’s governance model was inspired by Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew. The influence of that model explains things like the paternalistic “social credit’ system; the lifetime leadership tenure granted Xi Jinping; intolerance of internal disorder; and the emphasis on first overseas higher education, then building up a first-class domestic higher education system, which in China’s case will be unequalled in human history.

    The US has long turbocharged its economy by vacuuming up the most vigorous global smart fractions, but its cachet has been plummeting in recent years and if anything is set to accelerate given the neo-Maoist lunacy that has overtaken it. E.g., most Chinese graduate college students in the US began to repatriate as opposed to seeking to stay on about a decade ago now.

    The USA is abandoning college entrance examination testing while Chinese students work hard and prepare themselves for the rigorous “Gao Kao”. If China wants even stronger economic growth, she should continue to improve real-time translation of English speech and text into Chinese, and open a New Foreign Concession under joint Chinese-Singaporean management, financed by Temasek. This would accelerate China’s ability to attract the very best scientists and engineers in the world from regions like the Anglo-sphere and the EU, which are utterly destroying themselves.

    In the span of 25 years Shenzhen went from being a rural field to a world-class city larger than New York. Serious, intelligent, hardworking people accomplish things like that. China doesn’t take orders from the Israeli government. China also doesn’t export poverty or revolution; doesn’t wage trillion-dollar “wars for democracy” under a rainbow flag; and doesn’t promote criminal sociological nihilism (e.g., irreversible chemical castration and “bottom surgery” mutilation of children). China long ago abandoned foot-binding; now the west celebrates molestation of children that is even more repugnant.

    China would not be the preferred model of America’s founders, but I suspect the latter would find more to admire in China’s leadership than in the unserious, foolish, lazy SOBs currently running America (into the ground).

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Voltarde

    Ahhhh - you are one of the few on Unz that gets it. PR of China's main model was not the US - nor was it Japan - nor Hong Kong - nor Taiwan - it was and is Singapore. Yes it learned from all the aforementioned - but it's main model is Singapore.

    , @Tyler Durden
    @Voltarde

    China's government is functionally far superior to our own. The big "if" here is with respect to China attracting foreign talent as you see in countries like the US and UAE. That seems dubious as China increasingly looks inward. It appears expats leaving China has become a trend recently.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Voltarde

    https://twitter.com/RokoMijicUK/status/1329720103630462976

  14. All this China/China. . . what is the evidence that the US GNP in 2050 will be >100% of the US GNP in 2020? It only needs to shrink by a third to make the prophecy true with China steady state. Not sure that woke neofuedalism is going to do any economic heavy lifting. Deindustrialization, some more financial house of cards falling, currency outflows, and good military humiliation and 1/3 is generous.

  15. @Eugene Norman
    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    I don’t get the argument on north east. It’s not growing as much as the rest of China, so doom. The Chinese are intent on urbanising their population over time, eventually they will get to that. This will offset to a large degree the demographic deficit as they age, that is a real problem but probably exaggerated and no worse than the west. The terrifying debt is internal.

    The idea that they will face tailwinds in exports is odd given the RECP and the recent investment deal with the EU.

    The same with oil, China is moving to renewables pretty fast.

    At any rate we will know in a few years. The trend growth for China is supposed to be 6% over the next few years, starting at 8% next year . That’s enough to double over about 11 years.
    Rule of 70.

    Ok so let’s assume the US grows at 2% in that time. That would be a 24% growth, of there’s no recession.

    If we are at parity now (and remember the us will have significant negative gdp this year) then it would only take a few more years for China to double the gdp of the US. Maybe 2035 at the latest.

    We will know in a few years. If China’s growth moderates to the 3-4% level in five years it will take a lot longer.

    Replies: @AP, @Shortsword, @Erik Sieven

    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    These are obviously city points. It’s like making assumptions about Russia’s GDP based on Moscow, USA’s based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA’s per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA’s GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fair points, though one also needs to adjust for Taiwan being an unrecognized polity that is getting systemically brain drained by China.

    Current UN projections show the US with 379M people in 2050 vs. 1,402 million in China - the recent fertility bust in the US has to increasingly be accounted for. Though I suppose the old projections can still be rescued with aggressive pursuit of the One Billion Americans plan.

    Replies: @E. Harding, @AP

    , @reiner Tor
    @AP

    Taiwan brain drain and economies of scale look worse than they will likely look in China. Even if we disregard the brain drain, we cannot disregard the economies of scale. China is bound to be richer than Taiwan due to this one factor alone.

    , @showmethereal
    @AP

    No - China wants to a larger version of Singapore - not "Taiwan". If that was the case they would have unified already. Taiwan is too liberal and there is too much political folly. They prefer the order and conservatism of Singapore.

    Replies: @128, @AP

    , @Ray Caruso
    @AP

    You're not taking into account the fact the US is a Black-supremacist country that is committed to Black rule, and to the mind-boggling corruption and incompetence that entails. In economic terms, China might be a larger version of Taiwan or Singapore in the future. The US will be a larger version of Haiti or Venezuela.

  16. This is because only high IQ nations are capable of maintaining the complex “O-Ring” type processes that separate truly developed/First World nations from the rest.

    This is true only for production activities which are thankfully getting reduced as a share of overall economic activity, employment, and GDP.

    As I mentioned in another post, I expect agriculture and industry to shrink from current 5% and 11% to 2% and 3% respectively and employment in those industries to shrink from 2% and 11% to something like 0.5% and 2% by 2050.

    Automation and efficiency gains are relentless and massively deflationary, as more stuff is made more efficiently, prices will collapse far faster than demand for the output will grow due to poor demographics and income distribution, which in turn will lower the nominal GDP in those sectors. Old people will have all the assets and income and young and middle aged will be poor and irrelevant in GDP calculations; not only young will be poor but there also will be few of them so so that is double negative for their share of GDP.

    Only old people matter for GDP calculations in the future. And ability to increase debt. Nothing else matters. Even Africans, even with low average IQ, will be able to find top 3% of their population to run their advanced processes, and thats all that will be required, really. The rest will become Medicare Billing Assistants, which doesn’t require high IQ and those people will be the future of the world. Which is why I expect economies of different countries to converge in the end.

    And in services, high IQ needs are questionable. You probably want the doctors to be somewhat smart, but a professor of Intersectional Literature? Does it really matter if her IQ is 150 or 80? Lawyers and financiers are inherently parasitic and serve little to no value in society, they only engage in negative sum games. It will only be beneficial if they are dumber than average. Does your plumber need 130 IQ? Unlikely.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @mal

    Plumbers are better if they have high IQs. Sure, constructing a building doesn't require great skills but finding the fault and fixing can while runing your own business.

    Replies: @mal, @showmethereal, @Wency

  17. @E. Harding
    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces. The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade. On the other hand, others (e.g., Guangxi) have been the simultaneous recipients of massive infrastructure investment, which is an obvious aid to growth. Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality. At best, Fujian province might fully converge with Taiwan, but I don't think this is likely due to mainland institutions generally accepted as being inferior to Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese. However, due to the sheer economic size of China's leading cities and their clear upward economic trajectory, it's reasonable to believe China's GDP per capita (PPP) will surpass Russia within the next two decades, getting China's economy close to twice the size of the U.S. by PPP.

    Replies: @Wyatt, @Hyperborean, @Anatoly Karlin

    The party appears quite content to let some of them (e.g., in the Northeast) rot to the extent that they might have actually fallen in GDP/capita this past decade.

    Interesting and TIL. I knew they have long had lower growth, but not to that extent. I checked provincial GDPcc numbers, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are all higher in 2019 vs. 2011, but only marginally so, meanwhile most of the rest of the country has moved sharply upwards, as expected. Heilongjiang is in fact now the second poorest province by that metric after Gansu.

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.

    Doesn’t necessarily follow, North-East might be slipping behind, but the interior proper (e.g. Sichuan) doesn’t seem to have been slipping behind the seaboard.

  18. @Eugene Norman
    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    I don’t get the argument on north east. It’s not growing as much as the rest of China, so doom. The Chinese are intent on urbanising their population over time, eventually they will get to that. This will offset to a large degree the demographic deficit as they age, that is a real problem but probably exaggerated and no worse than the west. The terrifying debt is internal.

    The idea that they will face tailwinds in exports is odd given the RECP and the recent investment deal with the EU.

    The same with oil, China is moving to renewables pretty fast.

    At any rate we will know in a few years. The trend growth for China is supposed to be 6% over the next few years, starting at 8% next year . That’s enough to double over about 11 years.
    Rule of 70.

    Ok so let’s assume the US grows at 2% in that time. That would be a 24% growth, of there’s no recession.

    If we are at parity now (and remember the us will have significant negative gdp this year) then it would only take a few more years for China to double the gdp of the US. Maybe 2035 at the latest.

    We will know in a few years. If China’s growth moderates to the 3-4% level in five years it will take a lot longer.

    Replies: @AP, @Shortsword, @Erik Sieven

    Hong Kong, Singapore and Macau can’t be compared to normal countries. Hong Kong and Singapore are centres for finance, services and R&D, and Macau’s economy is based around gambling tourism.

  19. @AP
    @Eugene Norman


    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.
     
    These are obviously city points. It's like making assumptions about Russia's GDP based on Moscow, USA's based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA's per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA's GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal, @Ray Caruso

    Fair points, though one also needs to adjust for Taiwan being an unrecognized polity that is getting systemically brain drained by China.

    Current UN projections show the US with 379M people in 2050 vs. 1,402 million in China – the recent fertility bust in the US has to increasingly be accounted for. Though I suppose the old projections can still be rescued with aggressive pursuit of the One Billion Americans plan.

    • Replies: @E. Harding
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The corona crisis seems likely to lead to a convergence of American and Chinese demographics as

    1. Chinese potential immigrants to the West (outside Australia and New Zealand) increasingly stay in China

    2. Potential immigrants from around the world increasingly don't move to America

    3. American TFR gets repeatedly hit by repeated waves of corona, while China remains immune to the virus due to wise policy

    The question is whether the coronavirus crisis is long-term, short-term, medium-term, etc. There's no reason to expect Western incompetence to disappear anytime soon, and even high levels of vaccine acceptance should make the West a danger zone by Chinese standards for decades to come.

    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn't NIMBYism taken over China's major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Astarte

    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    These factors would probably bring China's GDP closer to twice that of the USA's (my original rough calculation would have made China's GDP 1.75 x greater).

    Three times would be unlikely, IMO as unlikely as both countries ending up with about the same GDP. USA would have to have not a modest 5% or so decline in per capita GDP as is most likely, but a stark decline down to France's per capita GDP in order for China to have three times the USA's GDP. Not impossible, but a worst possible case scenario situation (of course, there are much less plausible ones, such as an actual civil war, super-volcano).

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  20. One of the fastest growing groups in the US is East Asians, and African Americans have sub replacement fertility rates, so your point about “most of the US growth being in lower IQ groups” isn’t entirely true.

    • Replies: @Another German Reader
    @AlexanderGrozny

    It takes dozens of MSc & Phd candidates and several professors plus years of hard work and millions of research grants/budget to conduct scientific research this days - even for mid-scale projects.

    But it takes only one single Syrian rocket-scientist and 1€-knife plus 2 minutes to destroy the lives of the above-mentioned Nobel-prize-winning research-team.

    It takes several productive persons' tax payments to feed, house and police the 5 children of an aspiring rapper.

    Biden goons and Trump soldiers might speak louder at the family gathering, they do not pull out the 9mm and shoot each other.

    But if a boy from the Remno clan disrespect a boy from the Aziz clan, the Berlin police department better call in reenforcement.


    You see quality can only offset mediocrity only up to a certain level.

  21. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fair points, though one also needs to adjust for Taiwan being an unrecognized polity that is getting systemically brain drained by China.

    Current UN projections show the US with 379M people in 2050 vs. 1,402 million in China - the recent fertility bust in the US has to increasingly be accounted for. Though I suppose the old projections can still be rescued with aggressive pursuit of the One Billion Americans plan.

    Replies: @E. Harding, @AP

    The corona crisis seems likely to lead to a convergence of American and Chinese demographics as

    1. Chinese potential immigrants to the West (outside Australia and New Zealand) increasingly stay in China

    2. Potential immigrants from around the world increasingly don’t move to America

    3. American TFR gets repeatedly hit by repeated waves of corona, while China remains immune to the virus due to wise policy

    The question is whether the coronavirus crisis is long-term, short-term, medium-term, etc. There’s no reason to expect Western incompetence to disappear anytime soon, and even high levels of vaccine acceptance should make the West a danger zone by Chinese standards for decades to come.

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn’t NIMBYism taken over China’s major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    • Replies: @Hyperborean
    @E. Harding


    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn’t NIMBYism taken over China’s major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.
     
    It is formal policy, but to really put a dent in the numbers things like Beijing's mass evictions a few years ago would probably have to be regularised rather than sporadic.
    , @Astarte
    @E. Harding

    Tianjin is a rust belt city, its economic conditions are more similar to the Northeast than Beijing or Chongqing, most newcomers there are actually families trying to take advantage of is lower Gaokao admission lines.
    It’s less about NIMBYism than Xi’s own ideas, from what I’ve gathered, Xi considers the oversaturation of population in a few coast cities unfeasible in the long run (he’s right imo, both economically and politically) instead he wants to create more opportunities in provincial capitals so talents can find a home there.
    The liberal technocrats, on the other hand, don’t quite share Xi’s concerns, so we will have to see how this ends up.

  22. China is a big economy but it is also a huge country. Per capita GDP is only ~$10K. That means it is simply too poor to rely mostly on the domestic market without gorging on debt.

    What do you mean? You seem to swap cause and effect.

    China manufactures more goods every year. Heretofore, Chinese policy has favored exports. As soon as Chinese policy ceases to favor exports, the Chinese domestic market will be larger by definition.

    [MORE]

    I gather that you think of a market as though it were a substantial thing of definite size, but a market is not that. Rather, a market is an empty space of indefinite size—a vacuum, more or less—into which goods and services can be delivered.

    The ~$10K of which you speak has value only in proportion to the extent to which goods and services have been delivered that the ~$10K can buy. By adjusting the money supply, modern central banking maintains approximately steady prices as a matter of policy. Such policy maintains an illusion that ~$10K had some definite value, but the definite value is merely an illusion. It is the goods and services that have definite value, rather.

    China produces lots of goods. To the extent to which China produces additional goods and chooses not to export these additional goods in exchange for fundamentally worthless U.S. dollars, China ceases to be poor. This is a sort of accounting equation.

    • Agree: Dreadilk
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    @V. K. Ovelund

    China just recently announced their 2035 plan. GDP per capita to 25000$ by 2035. Most of the Chinese netizens wrote that they believe this goal can be achieved by 2030. They are really confident about their country n future.

    That is a very American trait that I noticed recently.

  23. Off topic regarding GDPs but not regarding China. This was on the news in summer:

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    Supposedly Europe (and through Europe, the USA) got a more contagious mutation of COVID than the original, that hit China and the Far East. The original also hit California and died out there before the mutated one took its place.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    “Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia. The research was published online on bioRxiv and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

    The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614.”

    :::::::::::

    Has this been refuted? And if not – might that, rather than Chinese containment skill, explain some or all of the worse COVID contianment outside the Far East?

    • Replies: @BS
    @AP

    I'd imagine this second, more contagious strain has been brought back into East Asia by returnees from the West in the interim. The mandatory, strictly-enforced 2 quarantine periods for arrivals as well as travel bans have minimized potential for reinfection. It's very clearly a case of superior containment strategy.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Blinky Bill
    @AP

    Beijing's latest COVID-19 outbreak caused by virus strain from Europe: Chinese CDC

    According to an epidemiological investigation and analysis of viral gene sequencing results, the strain that caused the outbreak is the European branch I of the L genotype.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194130.shtml

  24. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fair points, though one also needs to adjust for Taiwan being an unrecognized polity that is getting systemically brain drained by China.

    Current UN projections show the US with 379M people in 2050 vs. 1,402 million in China - the recent fertility bust in the US has to increasingly be accounted for. Though I suppose the old projections can still be rescued with aggressive pursuit of the One Billion Americans plan.

    Replies: @E. Harding, @AP

    These factors would probably bring China’s GDP closer to twice that of the USA’s (my original rough calculation would have made China’s GDP 1.75 x greater).

    Three times would be unlikely, IMO as unlikely as both countries ending up with about the same GDP. USA would have to have not a modest 5% or so decline in per capita GDP as is most likely, but a stark decline down to France’s per capita GDP in order for China to have three times the USA’s GDP. Not impossible, but a worst possible case scenario situation (of course, there are much less plausible ones, such as an actual civil war, super-volcano).

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @AP

    Once Chinese GDP is twice the size of the US, economies of scale would actually be significantly better than in the latter. I’m not sure we understand if or how much the USA benefits from higher economies of scale - it certainly depends on the size of the economy more than on the size of the population. Though the latter might matter somewhat, too, which would increase the Chinese advantage over the US (let alone Taiwan), resulting in a bigger GDP still. And then we are still assuming no penalty for diversity quotas and the like in the US. Which would be surprising if you could have such a massive phenomenon for free.

    Replies: @Escher

  25. @A123
    Both the numerator (China GDP) and denominator (U.S. GDP) need careful consideration.
    ____

    If Team Blue wins, they will prevents U.S. manufacturing from recovering. Crippling U.S. productivity with "woke" service to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce makes it much easier for everyone to gain versus the U.S. including China. Odds are good that China will easily exceed 200% versus a Fascist Blue U.S. with unproductive spending on suppressing the freedom of U.S. citizens. 300%+ could be achieved if the Nazicrats do enough damage to the U.S.

    If Team Red wins, they will clamp down on IP theft and China market manipulation. This will boost U.S. GDP and limit China GDP growth. A growing U.S. Economy will be much harder to run down. After Barack Hussein's failed presidency and "jobless" recovery, the U.S. could have a massive boom for a decade or more if Team Swastika Blue can be destroyed. Trying to run up 200% versus a successful U.S. Populist, MAGA economic renaissance is more-or-less impossible.
    ____

    There are also gigantic issues internal to China. While it will be long term good, there is huge risk during retooling:
    -- From an export exploitation CCP Elite economy
    -- To an internal Chinese Citizen driven anti-Elite economy

    Best Case -- Even if everything goes smoothly there is likely to be a tough decade or more as Chinese exports are shunned faster than they can develop new internal markets.

    Worst Case -- The Chinese Elite class that controls the State Owned Enterprises [SOE] resists Citizen Empowered internal competition. None of these scenarios are helpful and a few are potentially catastrophic.

    The CCP Elite Class demonstrated total incompetence and short sightedness trying to handle economic change for a small portion of the population in Hong Kong. It is not clear that they have learned anything from this fiasco, so those betting on CCP Elite "Best Case" behaviour are rather out on a limb.
    ____

    As a side note, trying to score the competition will be very difficult. Chinese national statistics are burdened by substantial inaccuracy and corruption: (1)

    In 2018, Guanghan reported that its economy grew 9 per cent to 45.1 billion yuan (US$6.5 billion) – significantly more than the national average of 6.6 per cent. Government officials also tried to block law enforcement officials from inspecting its data and violated the regulation requiring the statistical bureau to take responsibility for filing accurate data on progress in meeting economic targets, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report published earlier this week.
    ...
    Doubts over the quality of China’s economic data have risen in recent years, especially after large-scale manipulation of economic data was revealed in Liaoning province, the Inner Mongolia autonomous area and the city of Tianjin, with local officials under pressure to deliver economic achievement to meet promotion criteria.
     
    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) From 2019: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3015206/chinas-economic-census-undercovers-more-fake-data-officials

    Replies: @Gandofff, @Craken

    Wokeness was on the march throughout the 4 years of Trump’s Presidency, so I doubt team red winning will make a difference. What needed to happen was actual consequences, tax increases, budget cutbacks for the military, academia, and the deep state, etc. Team red proved itself too weak to impose them. If all you wanted to see was rhetorical counter-attacks, I’m sure Trumpism looked great to you.

    • Agree: SveVid
  26. Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    • Disagree: Blinky Bill, Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @mal
    @Lot


    We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”
     
    By 2050 all those factories will get automated and stuff those factories produce will cost very little due to very high efficiency. It will not matter where this factory is located, China, Somalia, US, whatever.

    However, because of the low priced output, they will contribute very little to GDP (even if they contribute greatly to qualify of life). Counting factories made sense in the 1950's when manufacturing was a large part of the advanced economy. In 2050's it will be so small, counting factories will be pointless.
    , @Blinky Bill
    @Lot


    Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.
     
    The perfect article for you, It'll make perfect sense.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/02/08/the-leading-power-in-east-asia-will-be-japan-not-china/amp/

    , @Suicidal_canadian
    @Lot

    Delusional. Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers. Workers at some point will start preferring shenzhen or bangalore to silicon valley if silicon valley continues to be plagued by drugs, homelessness, and public defecation.

    The US is a house of cards and everyone knows it.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @Redneck farmer

    , @rensselaer
    @Lot


    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.
     
    Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese. Japanese tend to be more rigid and conformist. Remember that before copying the West, Japan copied most of its culture from the Chinese.

    And I don't think the Japanese have much if any of an IQ advantage over the pure Han in China.

    Japan's advantage is that it's smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    Replies: @Lot, @Dmitry, @Whitewolf

    , @Randolph Nugent
    @Lot

    Interesting comment.
    But I think there are additional important factors.
    Remember the US economy and ability to buy is boosted by the dollar being a reserve currency for the world, and the dollar being used for oil transactions. This can't last and as the dollar falls the US will be less able to buy from the world. You also need to look at the continuing massive spending on the military industrial complex, again financed by the reserve dollar status... otherwise, where does the money come from?
    Finally, (for now) but certainly not least, is the crumbling US infrastructure which has to be rebuilt; how will this be paid for? If at all.
    And all this reflects on the devaluing of human capital in the US, poor education, for profit medical care, and massively inequality in income.
    Corrupt government has many consequences, and it just is not responsive, fast enough, to the needs of the people.

  27. @Lot
    Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill, @Suicidal_canadian, @rensselaer, @Randolph Nugent

    We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    By 2050 all those factories will get automated and stuff those factories produce will cost very little due to very high efficiency. It will not matter where this factory is located, China, Somalia, US, whatever.

    However, because of the low priced output, they will contribute very little to GDP (even if they contribute greatly to qualify of life). Counting factories made sense in the 1950’s when manufacturing was a large part of the advanced economy. In 2050’s it will be so small, counting factories will be pointless.

    • Agree: AaronB, Philip Owen
    • Disagree: Biff
  28. @AP
    Off topic regarding GDPs but not regarding China. This was on the news in summer:

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    Supposedly Europe (and through Europe, the USA) got a more contagious mutation of COVID than the original, that hit China and the Far East. The original also hit California and died out there before the mutated one took its place.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    "Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia. The research was published online on bioRxiv and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

    The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614."

    :::::::::::

    Has this been refuted? And if not - might that, rather than Chinese containment skill, explain some or all of the worse COVID contianment outside the Far East?

    Replies: @BS, @Blinky Bill

    I’d imagine this second, more contagious strain has been brought back into East Asia by returnees from the West in the interim. The mandatory, strictly-enforced 2 quarantine periods for arrivals as well as travel bans have minimized potential for reinfection. It’s very clearly a case of superior containment strategy.

    • Replies: @AP
    @BS

    Yes, this is a matter of border control and monitoring rather than in-country containment. If China’s initial outbreak had been the mutated strain, would the country be in such good shape now?

    Replies: @BS

  29. @AP
    Off topic regarding GDPs but not regarding China. This was on the news in summer:

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    Supposedly Europe (and through Europe, the USA) got a more contagious mutation of COVID than the original, that hit China and the Far East. The original also hit California and died out there before the mutated one took its place.

    https://www.biospace.com/article/mutated-covid-19-viral-strain-in-us-and-europe-much-more-contagious/

    "Researchers have been analyzing and tracking the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, since it first appeared in China in January. Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute have found that the strains spreading so quickly in Europe and the U.S. have a mutated S “spike” protein that makes it about 10 times more infectious than the strain that originally was identified in Asia. The research was published online on bioRxiv and has yet to be peer-reviewed.

    The mutation does not appear to make the virus any more deadly than it already is, but it does appear to make it significantly more contagious. The original strain in China is dubbed D614, while the one found in the UK, Italy and North America by May is dubbed G614."

    :::::::::::

    Has this been refuted? And if not - might that, rather than Chinese containment skill, explain some or all of the worse COVID contianment outside the Far East?

    Replies: @BS, @Blinky Bill

    Beijing’s latest COVID-19 outbreak caused by virus strain from Europe: Chinese CDC

    According to an epidemiological investigation and analysis of viral gene sequencing results, the strain that caused the outbreak is the European branch I of the L genotype.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194130.shtml

  30. @Lot
    Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill, @Suicidal_canadian, @rensselaer, @Randolph Nugent

    Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The perfect article for you, It’ll make perfect sense.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/02/08/the-leading-power-in-east-asia-will-be-japan-not-china/amp/

  31. @Some Guy
    So this is all assuming natural human capital is still the main factor in 2050 I guess.

    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic. On the other hand, China will probably be quicker to start with embryo selection/genetic engineering. Even a few years difference there could be a huge economic advantage.

    I assume oil won't be that important in 2050, that's an advantage for a large net importer like China.

    Replies: @Pericles

    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic.

    But it looks like the US Gang of Four is comfortably leading the race, so one should quite possibly instead expect 10-20 years of US Cultural Revolution before things start to change back, or even longer. Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    • Agree: nokangaroos, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @Some Guy
    @Pericles


    Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.
     
    No, but their bosses who run and/or own the companies will.

    Replies: @Pericles

  32. @Lot
    Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill, @Suicidal_canadian, @rensselaer, @Randolph Nugent

    Delusional. Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers. Workers at some point will start preferring shenzhen or bangalore to silicon valley if silicon valley continues to be plagued by drugs, homelessness, and public defecation.

    The US is a house of cards and everyone knows it.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @Suicidal_canadian

    I clicked the Agree button by accident.


    Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers.
     
    I see the point at which you're getting. Your theme is not 100 percent false but your facts are quite inaccurate.
    , @Redneck farmer
    @Suicidal_canadian

    You really need to be a tad more critical of news stories you see, bro.

    Replies: @Biff

  33. Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America’s much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada’s GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse….couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo “Сільпо”” chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The ‘Safeway to peddle’ schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked ‘a rose is a rose is a rose’, except that the ‘rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800’s. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I’ve seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @utu
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    Replies: @AP, @Another German Reader, @Philip Owen, @God's Fool

    , @Suicidal_canadian
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Reasonably accurate but - who the hell cares about edmond allens. We have a poverty and protestantism that are responsible for the way we dress. Why the hell did we agree that "pride" - meaning dressing well - is a sin?

    , @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    GDP is largely a meme metric, in the end all that matters is self-reliance and autarky. The US is much ahead of China in this regard when it comes to defence systems, but when it comes to manufacturing it is certainly not.

    A state's power is determined by how much it can be coerced into bending to the will of other countries, and GDP is only a very small component of this.

    Replies: @128

    , @Max Payne
    @Zhang Shoucheng


    Safeway
     
    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    https://voxukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/a5ee17beb264f716bd991305c33261a8-2.jpg

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    https://ak.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/5899667/thumb/1.jpg

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you're lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

    https://i.imgur.com/HrSMq8T.jpg

    Replies: @mal, @Zhang Shoucheng, @Mr. Hack, @GMC, @Ray Caruso

    , @Philip Owen
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    I can't speak for Ukraine but I can observe that in Russia, the 15% of people with their own businesses or professioanl jobs seem to live as well or better than in the UK or indeed, Hongcouver although most of my acquaintance is with Burnaby. That said, the top third of the business/professional class in the UK/Canada probably live better than the Russians. There are fewer Russian hanging on to their parents' fading businesses. That said, public investment and services in Russia are appallingly bad compared to the UK, below even US levels.

  34. @Pericles
    @Some Guy


    I expect hereditarianism will make a huge comeback in a few years as everyone gets access to accurate polygenic scores for various traits. That would change US immigration policy, diminish the power of wokeness and make things more meritocratic.

     

    But it looks like the US Gang of Four is comfortably leading the race, so one should quite possibly instead expect 10-20 years of US Cultural Revolution before things start to change back, or even longer. Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won't be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    Replies: @Some Guy

    Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.

    No, but their bosses who run and/or own the companies will.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Some Guy

    Maybe if the polygenic scoring algorithm has been approved by the DOJ and is fully compliant with the Civil Rights Act. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets as disallowed as IQ tests. When you think about it, it's really the worst sort of eugenic nazism, isn't it?

    (Regarding who is the boss, note that, for instance, Eileen Naughton, "Vice President - People Operations", is on the board of Alphabet, the owners of Google. I wonder what her KPIs are and how woke she is?)

    Replies: @Some Guy

  35. @Some Guy
    @Pericles


    Meanwhile, the feminist POC HR commissars won’t be looking for polygenic score meritocracy.
     
    No, but their bosses who run and/or own the companies will.

    Replies: @Pericles

    Maybe if the polygenic scoring algorithm has been approved by the DOJ and is fully compliant with the Civil Rights Act. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets as disallowed as IQ tests. When you think about it, it’s really the worst sort of eugenic nazism, isn’t it?

    (Regarding who is the boss, note that, for instance, Eileen Naughton, “Vice President – People Operations”, is on the board of Alphabet, the owners of Google. I wonder what her KPIs are and how woke she is?)

    • Replies: @Some Guy
    @Pericles

    I believe companies can get in trouble for tests that have disparate impact on protected groups.
    A way to get around that would be to have separate norms for each race, such that the 50th percentile black scores "the same" as the 50th percentile white etc. Then polygenic scores would still improve employee selection within each race, although they would not improve the racial mix.

    However, eventually when race differences are widely accepted, all this nonsense about "disparate impact" should be obvious nonsense to everyone. Not sure if even the current supreme court buys such nonsense. Nonsense.

  36. A huge chunk of US GDP is “imaginary Jewish economics” to do with selling each other promises of profits and debts and crap like that. This means that the per capita thing is merely a statistical convenience, and not a real thing.

    For the majority, the “Wall Street chunk” of the US economy means nothing. “GDP per capita” grows, but actual physical level of life plummets. City blocks become food deserts and warlord enclaves, parks become rape labyrinths with cracked and warped alleys, public transport is where you go to get mugged by a crazy hobo. New infrastructure projects haven’t happened since the 2008 crash, and even servicing the existing infrastructure is in decline. Worker’s rights are regressing to 19th century levels, and healthcare and education become inter-generational debt burdens.

    In terms of quality of life, only the dwindling “middle class suburbia” is where the “real America” remains alive, the one we see in Marty McFly’s town in 1985, for example. Outside of this, not counting the rich minority, for everyone else the quality of life is rapidly descending to a delightful mix of 1990s post-communist chaos in EE, but COMBINED with 1970s Soviet stagnation and censorship.

    So much for GDP, nominal or per capita.

    **

    That being said, the very idea of a “world hegemon” is a concept based on a historical accident–the West’s Industrial Revolution, which gave it an advantage over the rest of the world comparable to that of hi-tech space invaders.

    Prior to the mid-to-late 19th century, the world was “multipolar” and this is how it always was, and this is how it’s becoming again, now that the “western white” civilization is fast losing its super-passionarity impulse, succumbing to the decline by a billion cuts.

    Before the western white became a hi-tech space invader, he was just another player, like the Ottoman Empire, the Maghreb Caliphate, Persia, Russia, China, and even India, could only overwhelm utterly Stone Age societies, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, and Oceania.

    The world has been transformed by the touch of the western white, the western white has himself been transformed, and now we’re approaching again the pre-industrial revolution situation of many different civilizational centers that exist on similar levels. In this sense no, the US isn’t going to be a world hegemon, and no, China will also not be a world hegemon, in fact, no one will be a world hemegon. A number of interlocking alliances will span the globe, each centered on one or two major players.

    The “single civilizational hegemon” is just another face of the “end of history fallacy”. Which Fukuyama himself has spent the last 20 years debunking, writing some damn good books on the subject, which everyone prefers to pretend isn’t happening.

    **
    The Trumpist “America First” populist nationalism means treating other civilizational centers as competitors who need to be dealt with toughly, but it DOES NOT mean treating them as evil abominations for merely existing. Whereas the GloboHomo view is this. Either you take the part assigned to you within their system, or you are an evil abomination. As a country, as a race, as a class, as an individual. Either accept what is assigned to you, or you are so much beyond good and evil, that you must be destroyed in any way possible.

    The Trumpist approach means hitting China, Russia, Iran, and anyone else, with economic pressure in order to get what America needs to happen. The Deep State GloboHomo approach means seeding them with plagues, fermenting terrorism and separatism, and promoting hatred.

    Trumpist anti-China propaganda at core means “damn Chinks think they’re better than us well we’ll make them play fair and know their place”, whereas the GloboHomo anti-China propaganda means “this society has no right to exist the way it is now, and we must do what it takes to force it to exist the way we say it must exist.”

    • Agree: Sinotibetan, Tdstype2
  37. @Pericles
    @Some Guy

    Maybe if the polygenic scoring algorithm has been approved by the DOJ and is fully compliant with the Civil Rights Act. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets as disallowed as IQ tests. When you think about it, it's really the worst sort of eugenic nazism, isn't it?

    (Regarding who is the boss, note that, for instance, Eileen Naughton, "Vice President - People Operations", is on the board of Alphabet, the owners of Google. I wonder what her KPIs are and how woke she is?)

    Replies: @Some Guy

    I believe companies can get in trouble for tests that have disparate impact on protected groups.
    A way to get around that would be to have separate norms for each race, such that the 50th percentile black scores “the same” as the 50th percentile white etc. Then polygenic scores would still improve employee selection within each race, although they would not improve the racial mix.

    However, eventually when race differences are widely accepted, all this nonsense about “disparate impact” should be obvious nonsense to everyone. Not sure if even the current supreme court buys such nonsense. Nonsense.

  38. @A123
    Both the numerator (China GDP) and denominator (U.S. GDP) need careful consideration.
    ____

    If Team Blue wins, they will prevents U.S. manufacturing from recovering. Crippling U.S. productivity with "woke" service to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce makes it much easier for everyone to gain versus the U.S. including China. Odds are good that China will easily exceed 200% versus a Fascist Blue U.S. with unproductive spending on suppressing the freedom of U.S. citizens. 300%+ could be achieved if the Nazicrats do enough damage to the U.S.

    If Team Red wins, they will clamp down on IP theft and China market manipulation. This will boost U.S. GDP and limit China GDP growth. A growing U.S. Economy will be much harder to run down. After Barack Hussein's failed presidency and "jobless" recovery, the U.S. could have a massive boom for a decade or more if Team Swastika Blue can be destroyed. Trying to run up 200% versus a successful U.S. Populist, MAGA economic renaissance is more-or-less impossible.
    ____

    There are also gigantic issues internal to China. While it will be long term good, there is huge risk during retooling:
    -- From an export exploitation CCP Elite economy
    -- To an internal Chinese Citizen driven anti-Elite economy

    Best Case -- Even if everything goes smoothly there is likely to be a tough decade or more as Chinese exports are shunned faster than they can develop new internal markets.

    Worst Case -- The Chinese Elite class that controls the State Owned Enterprises [SOE] resists Citizen Empowered internal competition. None of these scenarios are helpful and a few are potentially catastrophic.

    The CCP Elite Class demonstrated total incompetence and short sightedness trying to handle economic change for a small portion of the population in Hong Kong. It is not clear that they have learned anything from this fiasco, so those betting on CCP Elite "Best Case" behaviour are rather out on a limb.
    ____

    As a side note, trying to score the competition will be very difficult. Chinese national statistics are burdened by substantial inaccuracy and corruption: (1)

    In 2018, Guanghan reported that its economy grew 9 per cent to 45.1 billion yuan (US$6.5 billion) – significantly more than the national average of 6.6 per cent. Government officials also tried to block law enforcement officials from inspecting its data and violated the regulation requiring the statistical bureau to take responsibility for filing accurate data on progress in meeting economic targets, according to a National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report published earlier this week.
    ...
    Doubts over the quality of China’s economic data have risen in recent years, especially after large-scale manipulation of economic data was revealed in Liaoning province, the Inner Mongolia autonomous area and the city of Tianjin, with local officials under pressure to deliver economic achievement to meet promotion criteria.
     
    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) From 2019: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3015206/chinas-economic-census-undercovers-more-fake-data-officials

    Replies: @Gandofff, @Craken

    Just about the only good comment in the thread–and better than Karlin’s OP.

    RE China’s fake economic numbers: there’s reason to believe that national GDP is overstated (maybe 10-20%) and its total debt (TSF) is understated. The official numbers put TSF at 280% of GDP, double 2007’s level. But, with reasonable adjustments, that debt-to-GDP ratio rises closer to 350%. In order to get their current 6% growth they have to shovel enormous amounts of debt into the system. Much of that debt goes bad, and if it were written down that 6% number would drop to 3-4%. That’s China’s real growth rate: 3-4%. At best, it might sustain that rate and achieve real growth of about 170% in 30 years. Assuming real GDP today is $12 trillion, my guess instead is 120% real growth, leading to a GDP of 27 trillion in today’s dollars.

    I’m not quite as pessimistic about America’s fate, but I agree that it faces a binary choice.

    • Thanks: A123
  39. @E. Harding
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The corona crisis seems likely to lead to a convergence of American and Chinese demographics as

    1. Chinese potential immigrants to the West (outside Australia and New Zealand) increasingly stay in China

    2. Potential immigrants from around the world increasingly don't move to America

    3. American TFR gets repeatedly hit by repeated waves of corona, while China remains immune to the virus due to wise policy

    The question is whether the coronavirus crisis is long-term, short-term, medium-term, etc. There's no reason to expect Western incompetence to disappear anytime soon, and even high levels of vaccine acceptance should make the West a danger zone by Chinese standards for decades to come.

    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn't NIMBYism taken over China's major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Astarte

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn’t NIMBYism taken over China’s major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    It is formal policy, but to really put a dent in the numbers things like Beijing’s mass evictions a few years ago would probably have to be regularised rather than sporadic.

  40. @Zhang Shoucheng
    Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America's much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada's GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse....couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo "Сільпо"" chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The 'Safeway to peddle' schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked 'a rose is a rose is a rose', except that the 'rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800's. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I've seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    Replies: @utu, @Suicidal_canadian, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Max Payne, @Philip Owen

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    • Thanks: AP
    • Replies: @AP
    @utu

    I suspect my wife’s emigration to the USA played a small part in Russia’s low number.

    , @Another German Reader
    @utu

    How much is the West ahead due to sneakerheads' obsession?

    , @Philip Owen
    @utu

    It rains in the UK. Shoes need to be sturdy and watertight. Maybe Russian boots don't count as shoes.

    , @God's Fool
    @utu

    Ever heard of barefoot Amish... Indians are no different.

  41. @Lot
    Thulean’s post is well written and correct.

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    The only way this happens is the US gets Third Worldified by migration faster than the present trend. Maybe.

    We’ll also eventually see what happens with third world migration when Chinese wages get high enough to attract some. I doubt they’d be so dumb to admit Somalis. But small manageable and compliant South and SE Asians? “We need them to stay competitive! Chinese won’t work in toy factory 60 hours a week anymore!”

    Replies: @mal, @Blinky Bill, @Suicidal_canadian, @rensselaer, @Randolph Nugent

    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.

    Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese. Japanese tend to be more rigid and conformist. Remember that before copying the West, Japan copied most of its culture from the Chinese.

    And I don’t think the Japanese have much if any of an IQ advantage over the pure Han in China.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    , @Dmitry
    @rensselaer


    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller

     

    Japanese and Chinese are more or less the same race, and they look like the same nationality. However, one is a developed culture and the other is third world culture. Culture is determining the difference between the countries (such as in this example, where in the 20th century almost the same race can produce one of the world's most successful advanced countries, and one of the world's most unsuccessful countries).

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again - the importance of cultural divergence.

    any of an IQ advantage

     

    "IQ" tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    This correlation with industrialization of a country, however, is more as effect, than as cause.

    Industrialized society formally indoctrinates children with concepts like time discipline and test-taking culture, and this is the cause of higher scores in "IQ tests".

    In societies at a lower historical stage, the children will not understand what they are supposed to conform to (and will answer questions more creatively), and will not be indoctrinated with time-discipline.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, s

     

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    So the cultural divergence of high achievement in Japan from the low achievement in China, can be perceived for a few centuries, until around the beginning 21st century.


    -

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films - they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    Replies: @rensselaer, @Eugene Norman, @annamaria

    , @Whitewolf
    @rensselaer


    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.
     
    The Japanese have the advantage of not being a communist country for decades. That abomination of an ideology screws up the entire mindest of the population.

    The Japanese have also heard of the word "quality" and in general take great pride in producing quality goods. The Chinese given a chance to fake it for a quick buck won't hesitate.

    I don't see China surpassing the US unless the US and other countries continue to outsource to China. There are already other Asian countries being built up and that is likely to continue which is going to cut into their growth. Plus their currency isn't the world reserve currency.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  42. Biggest problems for China:

    Demographics. Fortunately not as serious as the US who are experiencing both the race change and white aging kind. Chinese are only experiencing the aging kind but it’s shit and not much is being done about it.

    CPC dogma. Last 15 years many reforms have been reversed. State capitalism would be good if China allowed the major companies to be owned by billionaire genius magnets, and helped direct and support them behind the scenes, as opposed to stupid government workers.

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    • Replies: @Rahan
    @Sinojxy


    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.
     
    The population of the US is coincidentally 2% Jewish.

    Is it a minor inconvenience? Some might disagree. Some might say that letting in willy nilly "the smartest and brightest" into your society, and then just letting them do what they will, may lead to all sorts of problemos down the line.

    Some of those imported smartest and most innovative might decide to infiltrate the nervous system of your society and try to use it to achieve their own tribal goals and agendas. It's a natural enough impulse. Others might simply try to fleece your society. Also a natural impulse for the more psychopathic type.
    A third type might suddenly decide that they must destroy your society for greater cosmic justice. The idealistic schizos are abundant in certain groups.

    And sometimes all three types start doing their thing at the same time.

    Letting in the best and brightest foreign devils should be super controlled and their integration into the host society--highly supervised and conditional, is what some might infer from watching the current developments in the Anglosphere and Western Europe.

    Replies: @128

    , @Ray Caruso
    @Sinojxy


    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.
     
    Creating an (((alien overclass))) is suicidal insanity for any nation, which is exactly what the U.S. has done to itself.
  43. @OneTimeCommentator
    Why not start with numbers and a simple model?
    1) Estimated Population in 2050 (source: Pew research):
    US: 401 million
    China: 1.38 billion
    2) 2019 GDP per capita (nominal) (source: Wikipedia):
    US: 65,281
    Japan: 40,247
    South Korea: 31,762
    Taiwan: 26,910 (2020 estimates)
    China: 10,262
    3) Will the relative GDP per capita between the aforementioned countries, other than China, change over time? I think the safest assumption is that they will not, i.e. in 2050 US GDP per capita will still be more than double of South Koreans GDP per capita.
    3) Which country will China converge to? I think the safest assumption is Taiwan as they are the most similar people. Note: With convergence to Taiwan I mean that China converges to Taiwan´s GDP per capita as a % of US´s GDP per capita.
    4) Note that 3) is the ceiling for China. So, how realistic is it for China to converge to 3) by 2050? This requires to look at past growth rates of China and make a prediction about future Chinese growth rates (the growth rates are going to be lower than in the past). Moreover, keep in mind that the US and the country China will converge to will grow, too (safest assumption: both will have the same growth rates as the US had over the last 20 years).
    5) Multiply what you have gotten in 4) by 1) for both the US and China
    6) Compare the results :)

    Replies: @128, @reiner Tor

    I think China will stall out at where Slovakia’s, Latvia’s, or Polands’s is relative to Taiwanese GDP per capita.

  44. Again everyone is assuming that “America” is going to be farting into the wind while China bulldozes its way over its hegemony. Where are all the resources coming from for a nation of billions to have per capita equivalents to the developed world? Africa? Already the noose is tightening in the South China Sea. It would be a cinch to tie it up by provoking some conflict in any region on their borders. Corona aka the Chinese flu despite a very suspicious origin is and will still be commonly attributed to the region where it famously became publicized. The entire world will remember the broad outline of the Chinese menace that destroyed them in the year 2020 even if the details will be lost to history. There will be war.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
    @another one

    Where will the resources that China needs come from? From whatever supplier wishes to make more money selling to them. China is, despite western propaganda, popular in Africa.

  45. @BS
    @AP

    I'd imagine this second, more contagious strain has been brought back into East Asia by returnees from the West in the interim. The mandatory, strictly-enforced 2 quarantine periods for arrivals as well as travel bans have minimized potential for reinfection. It's very clearly a case of superior containment strategy.

    Replies: @AP

    Yes, this is a matter of border control and monitoring rather than in-country containment. If China’s initial outbreak had been the mutated strain, would the country be in such good shape now?

    • Replies: @BS
    @AP

    Interprovincial border control was similarly implemented at the onset in January and February (2 week centralized quarantine upon arrival, no crossing of provincial lines without hukou or urgent matter on the other side), which is why Wuhan/Hubei remained the epicenter of China's outbreak. And of course you should also recall that a second outbreak threatened to spiral out of control in the Northeast, the origins of that infection being Russia (I assume it was the more contagious European strain), and that was put under control with extremely stringent lockdowns as well. The city of Qingdao tested something like 8 million people overnight because of a handful of untraceable cases recently. No matter how you spin it, the Chinese (over)reaction has been incomparable with the lackadaisical high-trust approach pursued by Western countries.

  46. @utu
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    Replies: @AP, @Another German Reader, @Philip Owen, @God's Fool

    I suspect my wife’s emigration to the USA played a small part in Russia’s low number.

    • Agree: mal
  47. Question, why are all the IQ estimates for various racial groups and countries only testing teenagers, why are there no data for 25, 35-year-olds, or for middle age and older adults? Why can not they get this data or have these data? Are they basically making the assumption that IQ and IQ differences between nations and racial groups are the same regardless of age?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @128

    It's much easier to test teenagers. But data for geezers exists too: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/

    Replies: @128

  48. @Zhang Shoucheng
    Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America's much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada's GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse....couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo "Сільпо"" chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The 'Safeway to peddle' schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked 'a rose is a rose is a rose', except that the 'rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800's. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I've seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    Replies: @utu, @Suicidal_canadian, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Max Payne, @Philip Owen

    Reasonably accurate but – who the hell cares about edmond allens. We have a poverty and protestantism that are responsible for the way we dress. Why the hell did we agree that “pride” – meaning dressing well – is a sin?

  49. @Zhang Shoucheng
    Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America's much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada's GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse....couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo "Сільпо"" chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The 'Safeway to peddle' schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked 'a rose is a rose is a rose', except that the 'rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800's. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I've seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    Replies: @utu, @Suicidal_canadian, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Max Payne, @Philip Owen

    GDP is largely a meme metric, in the end all that matters is self-reliance and autarky. The US is much ahead of China in this regard when it comes to defence systems, but when it comes to manufacturing it is certainly not.

    A state’s power is determined by how much it can be coerced into bending to the will of other countries, and GDP is only a very small component of this.

    • Agree: Haruto Rat
    • Replies: @128
    @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Keep in mind the word is converging, so you are aiming against a moving target, assume that the US can grow at 2 or 2.5 percent indefinitely and China can grow at 5 percent in the short term, with the US starting from a larger base. And that 2 percent growth can be increased to 3 percent by either increasing population growth by immigration, productivity gains, or a combination of both, like if the US increased its population growth rate from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent that will add a whole percentage point to its GDP growth rate, even without increases in productivity, so GDP growth goes from 2 percent to 3 percent just because of additional population growth.

  50. @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    GDP is largely a meme metric, in the end all that matters is self-reliance and autarky. The US is much ahead of China in this regard when it comes to defence systems, but when it comes to manufacturing it is certainly not.

    A state's power is determined by how much it can be coerced into bending to the will of other countries, and GDP is only a very small component of this.

    Replies: @128

    Keep in mind the word is converging, so you are aiming against a moving target, assume that the US can grow at 2 or 2.5 percent indefinitely and China can grow at 5 percent in the short term, with the US starting from a larger base. And that 2 percent growth can be increased to 3 percent by either increasing population growth by immigration, productivity gains, or a combination of both, like if the US increased its population growth rate from 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent that will add a whole percentage point to its GDP growth rate, even without increases in productivity, so GDP growth goes from 2 percent to 3 percent just because of additional population growth.

  51. And that is not taking the fact that 3 percent might be the present limit of Chinese GDP growth less depreciation and write-off from bad investments. Admittedly I am not that sold on this, but it does make at least some intuitive sense when you look at all the empty apartment blocks lying around the countryside. And the West is not static either, like how different a cellphone from 2000 vs 2020 is, or how different a Ford Taurus from 2000 vs. a Tesla from 2020 is.

  52. @128
    Question, why are all the IQ estimates for various racial groups and countries only testing teenagers, why are there no data for 25, 35-year-olds, or for middle age and older adults? Why can not they get this data or have these data? Are they basically making the assumption that IQ and IQ differences between nations and racial groups are the same regardless of age?

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s much easier to test teenagers. But data for geezers exists too: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/

    • Replies: @128
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Keep in mind that Japan was almost a third world country in 1940, or at least barely a high-income country, with a GDP per capital similar to Poland in 1937, Venenuela and Chile were actually more developed in 1937 than Japan was, and Spain had a high per capita GDP than Japan before its civil war. A fourth of Japanese GDP went to the military In 1940, whereas in the US it was still around 1 percent in the late 30s.

    Replies: @Shortsword

  53. @Zhang Shoucheng
    Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America's much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada's GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse....couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo "Сільпо"" chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The 'Safeway to peddle' schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked 'a rose is a rose is a rose', except that the 'rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800's. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I've seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    Replies: @utu, @Suicidal_canadian, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Max Payne, @Philip Owen

    Safeway

    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you’re lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

    • Replies: @mal
    @Max Payne

    To be honest, those Ukrainian roads look amazing compared to some areas in Detroit, Chicago, and New York/New Jersey.

    Also, Ukraine probably also has excellent public transportation system - even in Russia in the 90's when things were bad, public transport was functional, so you didn't need a car to get around.

    Today in Russia you simply track any bus or tram on Yandex maps and show up at the stop when they do. Easy peasy.

    I don’t know about modern Ukraine, but I would think they would retain a functional public transport, so they wouldn't need so many cars.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    , @Zhang Shoucheng
    @Max Payne

    In reply I live in BC and have 7 figures of financial wealth. I stand by everything I said. Every road in the Ukraine has potholes and every road in BC doesn't? Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge. I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
    A preponderance of Canadians own three vehicles? Wow they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance! By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL "Gullwing", it will end up worth absolutely zero.
    I do admit that comparing BC and the Ukraine is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. Of course there is substantial poverty in the Ukraine. I have seen this and am aware of it. My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got - not what you paid. GDP should be compared on the basis of PPP and even then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
    On the basis of PPP China was well ahead of the USA many years ago.

    Replies: @BS, @Max Payne

    , @Mr. Hack
    @Max Payne

    Why not compare the roads of Colossal Canada with those of Eurasian Russia, instead of with "puny Ukraine"? Outside of Moscow ad St. Pete's, this is pretty much what the majority of the roads look like. Again, it looks like Little Russia and Big Russia have more in common that either has with Canada:

    https://blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/files/2012/04/Oxa-road.jpg

    https://blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/files/2012/04/pothole-roads_in_russia_640_02.jpg

    Replies: @mal

    , @GMC
    @Max Payne

    Hey now, I drive a 1999 lada 2111 and before that a 1998 universal { Wagon} --the cars are cheapy OK - but the problem is the roads. Roads in Ukraine will eat up any car or jeep. I'll take a Lada over their busses - any day. lol And yes . the roads I drove on in Ukraine were never took care of - their roads were ranked 140 th out of 148 countries. and even Russia has had to start re-building the roads in Crimea - all of them. That photo of Ukie road is typical - especially today. And Ukraine won't change because it is as corrupt as the USA - but without that printing press to keep the USG and accomplices - just getting by. Spacibo.

    , @Ray Caruso
    @Max Payne

    Ukrainian road:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@50.3926236,30.7624576,3a,60y,264.83h,84.45t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1susu23tiSlQnbp6LPqt5D6g!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    Canadian road:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@49.1879282,-88.2189448,3a,60y,204.5h,80.15t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sv6sycSz18m2BXY7O30L8GQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    And that forlorn, shoulderless road is not some rural lane going nowhere, it's the Trans-Canada Highway.

  54. @Anatoly Karlin
    @128

    It's much easier to test teenagers. But data for geezers exists too: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/iq-in-time-and-space/

    Replies: @128

    Keep in mind that Japan was almost a third world country in 1940, or at least barely a high-income country, with a GDP per capital similar to Poland in 1937, Venenuela and Chile were actually more developed in 1937 than Japan was, and Spain had a high per capita GDP than Japan before its civil war. A fourth of Japanese GDP went to the military In 1940, whereas in the US it was still around 1 percent in the late 30s.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @128

    Venezuela and Chile wasn't more developed than Japan by any sensible measure.

    Replies: @128

  55. And you see pretty large IQ jumps in countries that are already very well developed in 1938, like France, the Netherlands, or Austria.

  56. @rensselaer
    @Lot


    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.
     
    Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese. Japanese tend to be more rigid and conformist. Remember that before copying the West, Japan copied most of its culture from the Chinese.

    And I don't think the Japanese have much if any of an IQ advantage over the pure Han in China.

    Japan's advantage is that it's smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    Replies: @Lot, @Dmitry, @Whitewolf

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    • Agree: AlexanderGrozny
    • Thanks: Tyler Durden
    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Wency
    @Lot

    China isn't exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don't know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee's father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Dmitry, @Kent Nationalist, @Rahan

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Lot



    https://i.imgur.com/yWWdmb0.jpg

    , @last straw
    @Lot


    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

     

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China's EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that's all.

    Replies: @d dan, @Blinky Bill, @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    , @rensselaer
    @Lot

    My point about the Chinese tending to be more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese was more of a general assessment of their national personality types based on my experience dealing with and doing business with them.


    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.
     
    The major Japanese brands like Sony had their heyday in the 70s and 80s marketing Western invented electronics like the transistor radio and compact disc. Sony and most of corporate Japan have been mostly stagnant since the 90s and are generally non-entities in IT and software, and have been struggling against Koreans, Chinese, and others in hardware.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.
     
    I don't think contemporary low level, children's pop culture exports are an indication of greater creativity. By this standard, Japan would be considered more "creative" than Germany, France, Italy, etc. which I don't think anyone here would agree with.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.
     
    Mao's guerrilla army of Chinese Communists is generally considered the victor of the 2nd Sino-Japanese War against Imperial Japan, so I don't see how this indicates anything. Remember that by then Japan had been copying the West for almost 3 quarters of a century. Despite all that copying, Japan's performance is generally regarded as unimpressive, whether against Chinese guerrillas, the Soviets at Khalkhin Gol, and of course the US.
    , @showmethereal
    @Lot

    "Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota."

    Silly comment... You haven't been paying attention then. Go check all the NEV car makers and see how many of the top ones are Chinese now. Almost all not named Tesla. Go look which nation has the most valuable start up companies... It's not the US anymore - and it's certainly not Japan. It's not India either... So guess...

    "We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China"

    More silliness. Japan spent centuries as the understudy of China. Often with resentment - but nonetheless the student. The reason Japan was able to invade China was because China was weakened by the other 7 nations of the 8 nation alliance. Once Japan saw what the west did to China - they decided to industrialize instead of keep following China. Would Japan ever dare to take on a peak level China??? Are you kidding?? They tried to take Korea centuries back and China stepped in and slapped Japan back.

    Replies: @128

    , @God's Fool
    @Lot

    Who would buy something named Dong no matter how good it is? Dong ain't no thing called Mustang, Mercedes, Toyota, Ferrari, Porche ... it simply is stupid dong!

  57. @128
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Keep in mind that Japan was almost a third world country in 1940, or at least barely a high-income country, with a GDP per capital similar to Poland in 1937, Venenuela and Chile were actually more developed in 1937 than Japan was, and Spain had a high per capita GDP than Japan before its civil war. A fourth of Japanese GDP went to the military In 1940, whereas in the US it was still around 1 percent in the late 30s.

    Replies: @Shortsword

    Venezuela and Chile wasn’t more developed than Japan by any sensible measure.

    • Replies: @128
    @Shortsword

    They had a higher GDP per capita than Japan in 1938.

    Replies: @Shortsword

  58. @Sinojxy
    Biggest problems for China:

    Demographics. Fortunately not as serious as the US who are experiencing both the race change and white aging kind. Chinese are only experiencing the aging kind but it’s shit and not much is being done about it.

    CPC dogma. Last 15 years many reforms have been reversed. State capitalism would be good if China allowed the major companies to be owned by billionaire genius magnets, and helped direct and support them behind the scenes, as opposed to stupid government workers.

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    Replies: @Rahan, @Ray Caruso

    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.

    The population of the US is coincidentally 2% Jewish.

    Is it a minor inconvenience? Some might disagree. Some might say that letting in willy nilly “the smartest and brightest” into your society, and then just letting them do what they will, may lead to all sorts of problemos down the line.

    Some of those imported smartest and most innovative might decide to infiltrate the nervous system of your society and try to use it to achieve their own tribal goals and agendas. It’s a natural enough impulse. Others might simply try to fleece your society. Also a natural impulse for the more psychopathic type.
    A third type might suddenly decide that they must destroy your society for greater cosmic justice. The idealistic schizos are abundant in certain groups.

    And sometimes all three types start doing their thing at the same time.

    Letting in the best and brightest foreign devils should be super controlled and their integration into the host society–highly supervised and conditional, is what some might infer from watching the current developments in the Anglosphere and Western Europe.

    • Agree: Ray Caruso
    • Replies: @128
    @Rahan

    Well a good measure is to dilute their influence, say no more than 5 percent of a cognitive elite ethnicity that makes up 2 percent of your population in certain professions like doctors or the student bodies of top universities, which will hinder their ability to form ethnic blocs, which was what the Ivy League did back then before the 60s, but in doing that you are basically getting rid of much of the positive effects of accepting that cognitive elite minority in the first place, such as concentrating their talent in particular places like your top academic institutions, not to mention that instituting such forced numerous classus like make your place a very unattractive destination for the talented minorities whose talents you are trying to attract in the first place. Also during the time that the Ivy League had these measures in place, the Jews were constantly trying to get rid of them, which they succeded in eventually.

  59. The biggest threat to America is Americans…not Chinese.

    • Agree: Tdstype2
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Realist


    https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-if-i-were-an-englishman-i-should-esteem-the-man-who-advised-a-war-with-china-to-be-the-napoleon-bonaparte-106-8-0873.jpg

  60. @Max Payne
    @Zhang Shoucheng


    Safeway
     
    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    https://voxukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/a5ee17beb264f716bd991305c33261a8-2.jpg

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    https://ak.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/5899667/thumb/1.jpg

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you're lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

    https://i.imgur.com/HrSMq8T.jpg

    Replies: @mal, @Zhang Shoucheng, @Mr. Hack, @GMC, @Ray Caruso

    To be honest, those Ukrainian roads look amazing compared to some areas in Detroit, Chicago, and New York/New Jersey.

    Also, Ukraine probably also has excellent public transportation system – even in Russia in the 90’s when things were bad, public transport was functional, so you didn’t need a car to get around.

    Today in Russia you simply track any bus or tram on Yandex maps and show up at the stop when they do. Easy peasy.

    I don’t know about modern Ukraine, but I would think they would retain a functional public transport, so they wouldn’t need so many cars.

    • Replies: @AP
    @mal

    Ukrainian roads are no worse than American or Canadian ones around large cities such as Kiev or Lviv (as you wrote, roads in Detroit are far worse - I’ve also seen worse roads in parts of New York that are under eternal construction). The highway from Kiev to Zhytomir could be anywhere in North America, if not for the occasional old lady selling fruits or vegetables on the side of the roadway. But I’ve never seen worse roads than in deep rural Ukraine.

    It’s remarkable how well-maintained such roads are in North America.

    , @Mr. Hack
    @mal

    In addition to improving train transportation tracks and trains themselves, Ukraine is not standing still and is improving roads too, as evidenced by a $2billion new "ring highway system" around Kyiv itself (started in 2018). There's always room for improvement, but it's unfair to criticize Ukraine for poor roads when there's plenty of them in other countries in the same neck of the woods.


    https://marvel-b1-cdn.bc0a.com/f00000000209590/www.worldhighways.com/sites/ropl-wh/files/141165.jpg

    Kyiv already has pretty decent roads and is improving them all of the time. It's time to pick up the pace elsewhere too.

  61. @Shortsword
    @128

    Venezuela and Chile wasn't more developed than Japan by any sensible measure.

    Replies: @128

    They had a higher GDP per capita than Japan in 1938.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @128

    First of all, all historic GDP numbers like that are estimations. They were significantly behind in other measures such as life expectancy or education level. Their relatively high GDP per capita was mostly result of having large amounts of copper (Chile) and oil (Venezuela). A significant percent of the worlds total oil and copper came from Venezuela and Chile. Add to this that their population at the time was much lower (both populations has exploded by having around 5-6 fertility rate lasting almost up until the 70s).

    This is also a factor why Chile turned out so much more successful than Venezuela. Chile still produces a large percent of all copper (and they're the largest producer by far) but Venezuelan oil stopped being as attractive after cheaper sources was found (middle east primarily).

  62. @Rahan
    @Sinojxy


    Bonus: China has 1.4 billion people, it should do everything it can to suck up the top 20-30 million smartest most innovative humans on Earth. What’s a 2% reduction in Han going to do? Nothing. It’s worth the minor inconvenience.
     
    The population of the US is coincidentally 2% Jewish.

    Is it a minor inconvenience? Some might disagree. Some might say that letting in willy nilly "the smartest and brightest" into your society, and then just letting them do what they will, may lead to all sorts of problemos down the line.

    Some of those imported smartest and most innovative might decide to infiltrate the nervous system of your society and try to use it to achieve their own tribal goals and agendas. It's a natural enough impulse. Others might simply try to fleece your society. Also a natural impulse for the more psychopathic type.
    A third type might suddenly decide that they must destroy your society for greater cosmic justice. The idealistic schizos are abundant in certain groups.

    And sometimes all three types start doing their thing at the same time.

    Letting in the best and brightest foreign devils should be super controlled and their integration into the host society--highly supervised and conditional, is what some might infer from watching the current developments in the Anglosphere and Western Europe.

    Replies: @128

    Well a good measure is to dilute their influence, say no more than 5 percent of a cognitive elite ethnicity that makes up 2 percent of your population in certain professions like doctors or the student bodies of top universities, which will hinder their ability to form ethnic blocs, which was what the Ivy League did back then before the 60s, but in doing that you are basically getting rid of much of the positive effects of accepting that cognitive elite minority in the first place, such as concentrating their talent in particular places like your top academic institutions, not to mention that instituting such forced numerous classus like make your place a very unattractive destination for the talented minorities whose talents you are trying to attract in the first place. Also during the time that the Ivy League had these measures in place, the Jews were constantly trying to get rid of them, which they succeded in eventually.

  63. @128
    @Shortsword

    They had a higher GDP per capita than Japan in 1938.

    Replies: @Shortsword

    First of all, all historic GDP numbers like that are estimations. They were significantly behind in other measures such as life expectancy or education level. Their relatively high GDP per capita was mostly result of having large amounts of copper (Chile) and oil (Venezuela). A significant percent of the worlds total oil and copper came from Venezuela and Chile. Add to this that their population at the time was much lower (both populations has exploded by having around 5-6 fertility rate lasting almost up until the 70s).

    This is also a factor why Chile turned out so much more successful than Venezuela. Chile still produces a large percent of all copper (and they’re the largest producer by far) but Venezuelan oil stopped being as attractive after cheaper sources was found (middle east primarily).

    • Agree: mal
  64. @Eugene Norman
    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.

    I don’t get the argument on north east. It’s not growing as much as the rest of China, so doom. The Chinese are intent on urbanising their population over time, eventually they will get to that. This will offset to a large degree the demographic deficit as they age, that is a real problem but probably exaggerated and no worse than the west. The terrifying debt is internal.

    The idea that they will face tailwinds in exports is odd given the RECP and the recent investment deal with the EU.

    The same with oil, China is moving to renewables pretty fast.

    At any rate we will know in a few years. The trend growth for China is supposed to be 6% over the next few years, starting at 8% next year . That’s enough to double over about 11 years.
    Rule of 70.

    Ok so let’s assume the US grows at 2% in that time. That would be a 24% growth, of there’s no recession.

    If we are at parity now (and remember the us will have significant negative gdp this year) then it would only take a few more years for China to double the gdp of the US. Maybe 2035 at the latest.

    We will know in a few years. If China’s growth moderates to the 3-4% level in five years it will take a lot longer.

    Replies: @AP, @Shortsword, @Erik Sieven

    “Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k” China won’t converge to those levels for the same reason European countries do not converge to Luxembourg or Switzerland.

  65. @Suicidal_canadian
    @Lot

    Delusional. Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers. Workers at some point will start preferring shenzhen or bangalore to silicon valley if silicon valley continues to be plagued by drugs, homelessness, and public defecation.

    The US is a house of cards and everyone knows it.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund, @Redneck farmer

    I clicked the Agree button by accident.

    Half of America is on welfare and the economy relies entirely on foreign workers.

    I see the point at which you’re getting. Your theme is not 100 percent false but your facts are quite inaccurate.

  66. @Tommy Vercetti
    When discussing asian progress it's often assumed that high asian IQ is going to be a major factor and potentially something that drives that region past the west. One point that's often made (and could possibly be true) is that asians may be disadvantaged by a lower standard deviation in their IQ scores, but what I never hear discussed is the possibility that asians are simply precocious and show their potential at an earlier age, whereas whites are slower to develop. The main reason I think this is the UK education statistics, where whites do terribly on the GCSE, taken at age 16:

    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/gcse-results-attainment-8-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest

    White average score 46.1, black 45, Chinese 64.2, non-Chinese asian (mostly south asian) 50.4.

    A levels:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/a-levels-apprenticeships-further-education/students-aged-16-to-18-achieving-3-a-grades-or-better-at-a-level/latest

    11% of whites get 3 As or more, 25.7% of Chinese, 11% of non-Chinese asians and 5.5% of blacks.

    And college graduates:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/higher-education/undergraduate-degree-results/latest

    30.9% of whites get a first class degree, 22.7% of asians total (presumably including Chinese this time as they're not listed as a separate category) and 14% of blacks. Over the 3 stages the white students overtake the others, although it's likely the Chinese are still ahead in college it does go to show things like the PISA test at age 15 and national IQ results (I'm not sure but I imagine many of the numbers must come from schools) may not tell the full story if some races are simply faster to mature than others. My own anecdotal evidence from college in Ireland, where I ended up working on projects with a lot of Chinese students, is that they tended to struggle. One even told me herself that though our colleges attract some of their highest achieving students, they really struggle when they come here. I mainly put that down to the language barrier but it's still interesting.

    There would be some logic to asians being faster to mature, they are physically a little bit smaller than whites and in general I'm pretty sure that smaller humans (and animals in general) tend to mature faster. Of course, China doesn't need to fully live up to its national IQ to overtake the US, but it's still interesting to consider that their IQ might not be all it's cracked up to be.

    Replies: @Wency

    It’s an interesting thought. Though the early childhood tests of ability show that blacks mature fastest and Asians the slowest, with whites in the middle. Blacks then die first and Asians last, even after accounting for lifestyle. So it seems like a pretty consistent and continuous pattern, and your thesis contradicts it.

    Those results could also be explained if the earlier tests catered better to Asian strengths (eg. math IQ) while later tests catered to other abilities, verbal IQ and so on, where they didn’t stand out as much.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Wency

    There’s no question NE asians develop slowest physically.

    We should always assume Rushton’s B-W-A ordering applies to human traits absent good contrary evidence. Of course there are exceptions, like height.

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    But the fact that my view is PC in this one respect doesn’t make my view false. I do think NE Asians have higher and blacks lower intelligence, just not as big of a gap as IQ tests indicate.

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    Replies: @Anon, @snooker player

  67. @mal
    @Max Payne

    To be honest, those Ukrainian roads look amazing compared to some areas in Detroit, Chicago, and New York/New Jersey.

    Also, Ukraine probably also has excellent public transportation system - even in Russia in the 90's when things were bad, public transport was functional, so you didn't need a car to get around.

    Today in Russia you simply track any bus or tram on Yandex maps and show up at the stop when they do. Easy peasy.

    I don’t know about modern Ukraine, but I would think they would retain a functional public transport, so they wouldn't need so many cars.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    Ukrainian roads are no worse than American or Canadian ones around large cities such as Kiev or Lviv (as you wrote, roads in Detroit are far worse – I’ve also seen worse roads in parts of New York that are under eternal construction). The highway from Kiev to Zhytomir could be anywhere in North America, if not for the occasional old lady selling fruits or vegetables on the side of the roadway. But I’ve never seen worse roads than in deep rural Ukraine.

    It’s remarkable how well-maintained such roads are in North America.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
    • Thanks: mal
  68. @Wency
    @Tommy Vercetti

    It's an interesting thought. Though the early childhood tests of ability show that blacks mature fastest and Asians the slowest, with whites in the middle. Blacks then die first and Asians last, even after accounting for lifestyle. So it seems like a pretty consistent and continuous pattern, and your thesis contradicts it.

    Those results could also be explained if the earlier tests catered better to Asian strengths (eg. math IQ) while later tests catered to other abilities, verbal IQ and so on, where they didn't stand out as much.

    Replies: @Lot

    There’s no question NE asians develop slowest physically.

    We should always assume Rushton’s B-W-A ordering applies to human traits absent good contrary evidence. Of course there are exceptions, like height.

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    But the fact that my view is PC in this one respect doesn’t make my view false. I do think NE Asians have higher and blacks lower intelligence, just not as big of a gap as IQ tests indicate.

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Lot


    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.
     
    This doesn't make sense to me. TTT correlates with IQ, IQ is valid in all races, but TTT somehow correlates with IQ at a different ... frequency or granularity in the different races? When X strongly correlates with Y, it's mostly the case that either X is Y or both are mediated or caused by the same thing.

    Google Scholar has only three hits for "test taking temperament, so it's not something that has been rigorously studied.

    At any rate "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests" is Myth 22 in Russsell Warne's new book, In the Know: Debunking 35 Myths about Human Intelligence. He points out that IQ, as measured by written tests, correlates positively and negatively with dozens of outcomes completely external to the test, so the idea that it is some kind of intratest fiction is unsupportable.

    Warne does allow that "test strategy" is a minor factor (when to guess, how much time to spend on questions, and so on). But that is something that can be figured out from the application booklet or can be taught in half an hour, and whether you have figured out these test strategies is itself a measure of intelligence.

    Replies: @Lot

    , @snooker player
    @Lot


    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.
     
    According to Davide Piffer, the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.

    White gentiles are the most underrepresented group at Harvard, Yale, etc., so according to your logic, these IQ tests overstate White gentile intelligence the most, and this is the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    Replies: @Lot

  69. @AP
    @BS

    Yes, this is a matter of border control and monitoring rather than in-country containment. If China’s initial outbreak had been the mutated strain, would the country be in such good shape now?

    Replies: @BS

    Interprovincial border control was similarly implemented at the onset in January and February (2 week centralized quarantine upon arrival, no crossing of provincial lines without hukou or urgent matter on the other side), which is why Wuhan/Hubei remained the epicenter of China’s outbreak. And of course you should also recall that a second outbreak threatened to spiral out of control in the Northeast, the origins of that infection being Russia (I assume it was the more contagious European strain), and that was put under control with extremely stringent lockdowns as well. The city of Qingdao tested something like 8 million people overnight because of a handful of untraceable cases recently. No matter how you spin it, the Chinese (over)reaction has been incomparable with the lackadaisical high-trust approach pursued by Western countries.

    • Thanks: AP
  70. @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    China isn’t exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don’t know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee’s father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    @Wency

    There are some other relevant German game developers like Piranha Bytes and the developers of the Anno games.

    Replies: @Wency

    , @Dmitry
    @Wency

    Germany is a leader in the post-war art world in painting (e.g. Anselm Kiefer, Gerhard Richter), as well as areas like industrial design

    Germany was a world leader in cinema in the 1920s. Then their cinema level has collapsed because of the National Socialism. But German cinema recovered to some extent in the 1970s. Directors like Werner Herzog, Fassbinder, and Wim Wenders, are considered influential in the cinem world.
    .
    In terms of classical music, Germany/Austria was able to maintain the world leading orchestral level, which continues today. Deutsche Grammophon also rebuilt very soon after the war.

    I can't say anything about German literature, as I don't read German. I assume German literature and philosophy didn't exactly recover after the war (but neither has it prospered in many other countries).

    , @Kent Nationalist
    @Wency


    China isn’t exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don’t know that it ever will
     
    Chinese literature and art is underwhelming for the whole of its history (although of course has some highlights). Even during the time of the bourgeois republic, its authors (Lu Xun etc.) were greatly inferior to Japan.
    , @Rahan
    @Wency

    Before the Western culture went into living death mode, and still had some vigor, and thus pop and rock music evolved continuously, Germany was a world center for heavy metal. For about two decades (say 1980 - 2000) German heavy metal was more than equal to the US/UK strains. Oldfags remember this curious phenomenon.

    But that's it. I also assembled a collection of modern Euro films back in 2019, to keep up. The French and Italian flics were as blandly good as always, but the German films were astoundingly boring. I think that post-WWII the "strong gods" were banned there all all levels in terms of spiritual experience, out of fear that strong emotions lead to Hitler returning.
    https://counter-currents.com/2020/01/r-r-renos-return-of-the-strong-gods/
    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/10/21/return-of-the-strong-gods/
    https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2019/11/return-of-the-strong-gods-rr-reno-dwight-longenecker.html


    And only in the metal music underground was there a mostly uncontrolled space where the surviving vigor could leak into.

    But then by the late 1990s pop culture stopped evolving everywhere, not just Germany, and then devolving. Maybe we're about to see some revival, if the Great Reset does not go by plan.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman

  71. @Max Payne
    @Zhang Shoucheng


    Safeway
     
    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    https://voxukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/a5ee17beb264f716bd991305c33261a8-2.jpg

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    https://ak.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/5899667/thumb/1.jpg

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you're lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

    https://i.imgur.com/HrSMq8T.jpg

    Replies: @mal, @Zhang Shoucheng, @Mr. Hack, @GMC, @Ray Caruso

    In reply I live in BC and have 7 figures of financial wealth. I stand by everything I said. Every road in the Ukraine has potholes and every road in BC doesn’t? Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge. I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
    A preponderance of Canadians own three vehicles? Wow they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance! By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Gullwing”, it will end up worth absolutely zero.
    I do admit that comparing BC and the Ukraine is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. Of course there is substantial poverty in the Ukraine. I have seen this and am aware of it. My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got – not what you paid. GDP should be compared on the basis of PPP and even then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
    On the basis of PPP China was well ahead of the USA many years ago.

    • Replies: @BS
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    If you live in BC and you have under 7 figures of wealth, I'm sorry to say this but I think you still qualify as an unwashed Safeway shopping prole.

    Replies: @Lot

    , @Max Payne
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    What you say are just observations of (universal) bad consumer habits…. Not faults of the country itself.


    My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got – not what you paid.
     
    Bro…the vast majority of Canadians were just handed $12,000 for nothing and those still jobless got (or are getting) another $16,000 (on top of whatever EI they clocked in) even though employers are sucking dick to hire people. In what country can an individual get $28,000 for a bitch nothing flu? That's Canadian dollars btw, not rupees or rubels or whatever fake currency people are using.

    I know enough families that appreciated the extra income boost (for example stay-at-home moms get that $12k-$28k, which is a nice cushion on top of her husbands income).

    A drug addict in Vancouver right now is probably shooting up $28k worth of heroin in his veins like a boss.

    The Canadian government will never go bankrupt. It’s just gets cheap sometimes and needs to be reminded it only has 32 odd million people, lots of land and resources, clean water, and the United States as its big-boy pants. I like to stick my hand in my pants sometimes. That's how I feel when I buy things from the great US market. (it feels awesome in case you were wondering)

    Canadians are really comfortable. Canada is literally the land of milk and honey. If you think otherwise you’re doing Canada wrong. I can't put it any plainer. Below in the More section is an explanation to how your observations are merely bad consumer habits. Does not mean Canadians aren't balling it up like its 1999.

    I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
     
    Building a road is a non-issue. Maintaining a road is. Plowing it, salting it (with salt that is effective and doesn’t cause Chernobyl-level runoff), repaving (thanks plow rape), and doing that while ensuring the road remains open for organized traffic for great distances. You’re talking about year-round seasonal construction on certain stretches of roads. Highway 401 is considered the busiest in North America and has always been in some form of expansion, construction, improvement, or maintenance. The construction equipment are part of the highway.

    Even vaunted Shanghai had some disgusting roads. Sure, Pudong maintains a facade of being uber maintained but move out to Fudan university and you’ll start to wonder how hard is it really to keep all the roads decently maintained…. Especially in such a small area in an international city that can muster cheap labour/materials unhindered by snow or Environment Canada….

    So clearly it’s not as easy as everyone thinks it is (even though it is really easy).



    Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge.
     
    Nearly torn apart, but not quite. You probably need new rear-shocks or you're driving on bald tires.

    A bad consumer habit is the lack of proactive maintenance in regards to their automobile. Take care of your car and it will last longer than you. It's made of metal. It can most assuredly live longer than humans.

    If the damage is significant enough and your insurance covers it file a claim. If the city is at fault everyone is a winner.

    By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Gullwing”, it will end up worth absolutely zero.
     
    Obviously. You don't need to buy a brand new car to enjoy it. Everyone knows the value drops by 15% the second you sign the paper. So don't buy a new car. Got it. 2015 Porsche Cayenne from the US for 14.5k second hand, great condition. Hands in my pants. A 2012 bmw 3 series locally for 7k that needed new coils ($150 cheap aftermarkets and works beautifully). Two half-decent cars that I can enjoy for summer and winter. Pop on Youtube and do your own service. What’s the problem? The alternative is to WASTE MY TIME sitting in public transportation? Then the argument is how much is your time worth?

    Anyway no need to bankrupt yourself to enjoy the fun things in life. Lack of research into alternatives is considered bad consumer habits. Unless you enjoy driving cars with worn out shocks.

    they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance!
     
    How many accidents have you been in to have high insurance? In my reckless 20s with a “a new driver MALE with a high risk sports car” and enough speeding tickets to be on first name basis with the local Provincial Offences office I wasn’t paying more than $1,200 annually for insurance. Did you run over a Korean family or something?

    I had a girlfriend the same time that drove a gay Yaris, she had no tickets and was paying $1,100 insurance because the car was a death trap. If your car is really old it does pay to get something newer for the insurance.

    Lack of consumer diligence is part of bad consumer habits.

    Have you tried BCAA? Probably give you a better deal if you group your house insurance with them too. Could be outdated info, but they were good to me.

    then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
     
    Canadian 'funny money' is not a bug, it’s a feature. You are witnessing the mechanisms that protect us from being turned into a Mexico by the US.

    Do not confuse the serfs and plebs of Canada, imported or domestic, with those that actually RUN Canada, operate its businesses and produce its few decent products/fields.

    It's not lost on Canadians that wealthy foreigners are willing to pay these ridiculous prices. It must mean it’s worth it because they love coming here. It’s why a shitty 300k home 15 years ago has surpassed the 1-million-dollar mark. Someone is paying for it which makes Canada happy, the banks happy, and the seller happy. I thought covid-19 was gonna crash the market. I literally pissed myself for no reason because the market didn't even budge.

    If you made it this far and being a thread about China I'll add my anecdotal experience in 2007, 2015 which gives me pause on this China-cock-suck-fest everyone has, I guess it pays to see things first hand:

    So to sum it up my primary experience is in Shanghai as I've been there multiple times over the course of a decade. Beijing only once. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou a handful of times for business, usually landing in Shanghai first anyway. A short stint through Shandong province. From the days of backpacking after high school (2006-7) to the regular business trips that have extended from 2011+. I can say Shanghai people are different from other Hans. Same with those that hail from Shandong province, who seem to be the REAL Chinese (legit niggas that project competence and confidence I rarely see in Asians).

    If you want to know how China operates just apply for a tourist visa and watch the shit they make you do and their impressive fetish with tiny little red ink stamps. A sampler of the nightmare complexity they like to add to the smallest irrelevant detail (yet missing entire points).

    In the summer of 2015 I was in Pudong and in need of a wicked piss. Being civilized I opted to look for a bathroom so I walked into one of those fancy buildings near the river within viewing distance of Pudong tower (aptly called “Office building” on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/GiMupzEiNmjz89ns6 ). I was expecting it to be like any normal downtown financial building. Go in, use the public bathroom, walk out....

    It was surreal, it was in the afternoon during working hours. I walk in and the lobby was dead empty. A layer of dust huddled in corners in the main lobby with the lights off. These weren't cheap buildings, they had nice marble interiors, glass table for the non-existent security, in the heart of expensive real estate Pudong. No furniture though. Clearly money and effort went into erecting these buildings. The building wasn't vacant. There were three suited gentlemen who individually at different times walked into or out of the elevators unphased by a round-eye holding his crotch standing like a retard in the middle of an empty lobby.

    I hesitantly continue forward until I find the bathroom only to discover the lights were off there as well. The water was shut off and it had a smell that didn't befit the value of the marble and decor invested in the place. As if there was no building management to hire someone to maintain any of this shit. Typical. Build great things and forget the minor details to basically fall flat on your impact.

    Went to the adjacent building and it had similar conditions. After the third building I realized I would have to risk my anal virginity and pee in the darkness. I thought it was measures used to dissuade hobos sleeping in the bathroom but it's China, uniformed soldiers regularly patrol and are diligent. I know this because I sat on the stairs of a Lawsons in Pudong trying to read a map and 2 minutes later was nudged by a uniformed soldier to move along (with a smile, no violence, no English either). No loitering I guess.

    I visited some spots in Shanghai in 2007 that were just finishing construction on rows of residential apartments. In 2015 visiting that same spot the vast majority of the buildings were still empty. Expats tell me that 5-6 people will roommate up and rent a single apartment. I don't know if the Chinese government is unable to control rent rates or if people are really cheap or if its just better for a building to be vacant or if its a facade or this "construction industrial complex" or what.

    If I can find the 4x6 photo (yea I was taking pictures with a disposable Kodak camera at the time because it was 2007) I can upload it and the new one I took in 2015 with my phone to show how the buildings remain empty 8 years after construction. This isn't some nothing empty neighbourhood either as a Carrefour at the intersection was always busy with shoppers.

    Just like Canadian funny money, Chinese have their own methods of maintaining facades.

    Replies: @Wyatt

  72. @Wency
    @Lot

    China isn't exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don't know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee's father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Dmitry, @Kent Nationalist, @Rahan

    There are some other relevant German game developers like Piranha Bytes and the developers of the Anno games.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Mitleser

    Yeah, and I know they also have some niche studios like Egosoft that makes the X series, and Daedalic Studios that makes some niche point-and-click adventure games. The original Anno developer was Austrian, but it's now under (French) Ubisoft's German umbrella. Which itself is much less important than Ubisoft Montreal alone. We can debate exactly how little Germany outputs here, but my basic point stands, and I've been noticing and wondering about it for a while.

    Replies: @Mitleser

  73. @Zhang Shoucheng
    @Max Payne

    In reply I live in BC and have 7 figures of financial wealth. I stand by everything I said. Every road in the Ukraine has potholes and every road in BC doesn't? Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge. I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
    A preponderance of Canadians own three vehicles? Wow they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance! By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL "Gullwing", it will end up worth absolutely zero.
    I do admit that comparing BC and the Ukraine is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. Of course there is substantial poverty in the Ukraine. I have seen this and am aware of it. My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got - not what you paid. GDP should be compared on the basis of PPP and even then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
    On the basis of PPP China was well ahead of the USA many years ago.

    Replies: @BS, @Max Payne

    If you live in BC and you have under 7 figures of wealth, I’m sorry to say this but I think you still qualify as an unwashed Safeway shopping prole.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @BS

    In America Safeway ranges from high to low end depending on its neighborhood.

    Odd to see someone call it “prole.”

  74. I think the per capitas of Japan, SK, and Taiwan would all be higher, if they were less isolated. Historically, during the Maoist period, their geography could not be compared to the geography of the US or Western Europe. At least, not in an economic sense.

    Modern China is the missing piece of that. It is like the US suddenly rising out of the seas, to connect with a poor island nation called Canada.

  75. @Mitleser
    @Wency

    There are some other relevant German game developers like Piranha Bytes and the developers of the Anno games.

    Replies: @Wency

    Yeah, and I know they also have some niche studios like Egosoft that makes the X series, and Daedalic Studios that makes some niche point-and-click adventure games. The original Anno developer was Austrian, but it’s now under (French) Ubisoft’s German umbrella. Which itself is much less important than Ubisoft Montreal alone. We can debate exactly how little Germany outputs here, but my basic point stands, and I’ve been noticing and wondering about it for a while.

    • Replies: @Mitleser
    @Wency

    AK did ask basically the same question about Russia: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-no-video-games/
    One of the answers:


    1. I assume that Russia’s own, partially independent IT ecosystem soaks up a much larger share of the local programming talent than is the case in East-Central Europe, where the great bulk of the IT ecosystem is an extension of Silicon Valley.
     
    SAP, one of the top software companies of the world is Germany-based.
    So, maybe the German IT ecosystem has also other priorities, and developing computer games being not one of them.

    Replies: @Wency

  76. @rensselaer
    @Lot


    Lol at the idea Chinese per cap GDP will ever come close to the USA. Japan is at 39k to 63k US, and the Japanese are really obviously superior to the Chinese in every way.
     
    Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese. Japanese tend to be more rigid and conformist. Remember that before copying the West, Japan copied most of its culture from the Chinese.

    And I don't think the Japanese have much if any of an IQ advantage over the pure Han in China.

    Japan's advantage is that it's smaller and even more conformist relative to China, so it may be more adept to generating economic growth over a shorter time period, but over a longer time period it has no advantages and some deficits relative to China.

    Replies: @Lot, @Dmitry, @Whitewolf

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller

    Japanese and Chinese are more or less the same race, and they look like the same nationality. However, one is a developed culture and the other is third world culture. Culture is determining the difference between the countries (such as in this example, where in the 20th century almost the same race can produce one of the world’s most successful advanced countries, and one of the world’s most unsuccessful countries).

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    any of an IQ advantage

    “IQ” tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    This correlation with industrialization of a country, however, is more as effect, than as cause.

    Industrialized society formally indoctrinates children with concepts like time discipline and test-taking culture, and this is the cause of higher scores in “IQ tests”.

    In societies at a lower historical stage, the children will not understand what they are supposed to conform to (and will answer questions more creatively), and will not be indoctrinated with time-discipline.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, s

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    So the cultural divergence of high achievement in Japan from the low achievement in China, can be perceived for a few centuries, until around the beginning 21st century.

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films – they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    • Troll: showmethereal
    • Replies: @rensselaer
    @Dmitry


    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.
     
    This doesn't make any sense. There was no notion "third world" and "first world" in the pre-modern encounters between the West and East Asia. The first Westerners to travel to both China and Japan were the Iberians and Jesuits in the 16th century. Shortly after these Iberians and Jesuits visited Japan, Japan went totally isolationist with the Edo Period which started in 1603. Westerners were expelled from Japan, and there was strict segregation between Japanese and Westerners. The only Westerners permitted contact with Japan were a small group of Dutch traders, and this was under highly strict, segregated conditions on a specific island that ordinary Japanese were not allowed to enter, and Dutch were not allowed to leave.

    This isolationism lasted until the Meiji Restoration when Japan underwent a wholesale copying of the West.

    The "cultural divergence" was just a much smaller, conformist society copying the West much earlier than China did.

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.
     
    Neither of them had much "advanced research in maths" in premodern times. If you're going to cite 17th century Japanese mathematics, it's not any more impressive than the history of Chinese math, especially since the 17th century Japanese stuff is largely derived from earlier Chinese work on algebraic operations.

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.
     
    Japan had been copying the West for more than half a century then, so I'm not sure why it would be notable that they resemble European films.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films – they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.
     
    I don't see why this wouldn't characterize the bulk of Japanese pop culture, which is mainly for the children's market even if many adults now play video games and watch anime.
    , @Eugene Norman
    @Dmitry


    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.
     
    Historically of course the Chinese were one of the world's great powers and civilisations. Equal to the West/Europe for most of its history, more civilised from 500-1500 or so.

    “IQ” tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.
     
    Not at all. There's a strong correlation between IQ and individual success, and between IQ and national success. Although the measuring the latter is a bit suspect.


    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.
     
    Nonsense.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_mathematics
    , @annamaria
    @Dmitry

    Since the discussion is about China today, here is food for your thoughts:
    "Bigger than you thought: China’s contribution to scientific publications and its Impact on the global economy," by Xie & Freeman: https://economics.harvard.edu/files/economics/files/bigger_than_you_thought_chinas_contribution_journal_china_and_world_economy_xie-freeman_jan2019.pdf


    China’s contribution to global science based on the quantity and quality of Chinese articles in physical sciences, engineering and mathematics3 journals relative to the total number of articles in those journals... Chinese contributions account for 36 percent of global scientific publications. ...

    To the extent that increased production of scientific knowledge enables a country to move up the value-added chain in production and innovation, we would expect to see China’s increased contribution to knowledge to be accompanied or followed by increases in its share of world output in “high-tech” industries and in innovation.
     

  77. @Wency
    @Lot

    China isn't exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don't know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee's father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Dmitry, @Kent Nationalist, @Rahan

    Germany is a leader in the post-war art world in painting (e.g. Anselm Kiefer, Gerhard Richter), as well as areas like industrial design

    Germany was a world leader in cinema in the 1920s. Then their cinema level has collapsed because of the National Socialism. But German cinema recovered to some extent in the 1970s. Directors like Werner Herzog, Fassbinder, and Wim Wenders, are considered influential in the cinem world.
    .
    In terms of classical music, Germany/Austria was able to maintain the world leading orchestral level, which continues today. Deutsche Grammophon also rebuilt very soon after the war.

    I can’t say anything about German literature, as I don’t read German. I assume German literature and philosophy didn’t exactly recover after the war (but neither has it prospered in many other countries).

  78. @BS
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    If you live in BC and you have under 7 figures of wealth, I'm sorry to say this but I think you still qualify as an unwashed Safeway shopping prole.

    Replies: @Lot

    In America Safeway ranges from high to low end depending on its neighborhood.

    Odd to see someone call it “prole.”

  79. @Wency
    @Lot

    China isn't exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don't know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee's father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Dmitry, @Kent Nationalist, @Rahan

    China isn’t exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don’t know that it ever will

    Chinese literature and art is underwhelming for the whole of its history (although of course has some highlights). Even during the time of the bourgeois republic, its authors (Lu Xun etc.) were greatly inferior to Japan.

  80. @OneTimeCommentator
    Why not start with numbers and a simple model?
    1) Estimated Population in 2050 (source: Pew research):
    US: 401 million
    China: 1.38 billion
    2) 2019 GDP per capita (nominal) (source: Wikipedia):
    US: 65,281
    Japan: 40,247
    South Korea: 31,762
    Taiwan: 26,910 (2020 estimates)
    China: 10,262
    3) Will the relative GDP per capita between the aforementioned countries, other than China, change over time? I think the safest assumption is that they will not, i.e. in 2050 US GDP per capita will still be more than double of South Koreans GDP per capita.
    3) Which country will China converge to? I think the safest assumption is Taiwan as they are the most similar people. Note: With convergence to Taiwan I mean that China converges to Taiwan´s GDP per capita as a % of US´s GDP per capita.
    4) Note that 3) is the ceiling for China. So, how realistic is it for China to converge to 3) by 2050? This requires to look at past growth rates of China and make a prediction about future Chinese growth rates (the growth rates are going to be lower than in the past). Moreover, keep in mind that the US and the country China will converge to will grow, too (safest assumption: both will have the same growth rates as the US had over the last 20 years).
    5) Multiply what you have gotten in 4) by 1) for both the US and China
    6) Compare the results :)

    Replies: @128, @reiner Tor

    Taiwan is not a real country (inasmuch as it’s not internationally recognized), which probably hurts and has hurt its growth to an extent, like reducing FDI or causing some level of capital flight, and brain drain. China might have other issues with similar results (it’s nominally a communist country, and a totalitarian dictatorship), so perhaps FDI is not as high as it could be either, and perhaps some people leave it due to this as well. Though I think the level of the latter, the human capital flight, is not as high as in Taiwan, I’m willing to say these factors even out. But there’s a chance that these factors net favor Mainland China over Taiwan.

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Also perhaps SJW politics are going to hurt America and the US sphere economies relative to China. Does it hurt productivity to have woman quotas or other diversity quotas in force? Maybe it doesn’t. But maybe it does. China doesn’t have these. Greater meritocracy might help China.

    • Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way
    @reiner Tor


    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.
     
    Does economies of scale by itself add to GDP per capita? I think this is a crucial element to understand because one thing that China won't have like South Korea and Taiwan are export markets relative to size of domestic economy. China is already the world's largest exporter, so there's limited room for doubling exports. South Korea never had this problem in 1990 (where China is approximately in the development cycle).

    Replies: @Pericles

  81. @Wency
    @Mitleser

    Yeah, and I know they also have some niche studios like Egosoft that makes the X series, and Daedalic Studios that makes some niche point-and-click adventure games. The original Anno developer was Austrian, but it's now under (French) Ubisoft's German umbrella. Which itself is much less important than Ubisoft Montreal alone. We can debate exactly how little Germany outputs here, but my basic point stands, and I've been noticing and wondering about it for a while.

    Replies: @Mitleser

    AK did ask basically the same question about Russia: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-no-video-games/
    One of the answers:

    1. I assume that Russia’s own, partially independent IT ecosystem soaks up a much larger share of the local programming talent than is the case in East-Central Europe, where the great bulk of the IT ecosystem is an extension of Silicon Valley.

    SAP, one of the top software companies of the world is Germany-based.
    So, maybe the German IT ecosystem has also other priorities, and developing computer games being not one of them.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Mitleser

    That's a good thought that hadn't occurred to me. France (and for that matter, Japan) doesn't have anything like SAP, which could have something to do with why their top software companies are video game companies.

    The US is able to be #1 in gaming and every other sort of software due to its size and its brain vacuum, pulling in half the talent of Asia and Europe to work on this stuff as well. But other countries, even major economies, mostly need to pick one or the other.

  82. @AP
    @Eugene Norman


    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.
     
    These are obviously city points. It's like making assumptions about Russia's GDP based on Moscow, USA's based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA's per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA's GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal, @Ray Caruso

    Taiwan brain drain and economies of scale look worse than they will likely look in China. Even if we disregard the brain drain, we cannot disregard the economies of scale. China is bound to be richer than Taiwan due to this one factor alone.

  83. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    These factors would probably bring China's GDP closer to twice that of the USA's (my original rough calculation would have made China's GDP 1.75 x greater).

    Three times would be unlikely, IMO as unlikely as both countries ending up with about the same GDP. USA would have to have not a modest 5% or so decline in per capita GDP as is most likely, but a stark decline down to France's per capita GDP in order for China to have three times the USA's GDP. Not impossible, but a worst possible case scenario situation (of course, there are much less plausible ones, such as an actual civil war, super-volcano).

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    Once Chinese GDP is twice the size of the US, economies of scale would actually be significantly better than in the latter. I’m not sure we understand if or how much the USA benefits from higher economies of scale – it certainly depends on the size of the economy more than on the size of the population. Though the latter might matter somewhat, too, which would increase the Chinese advantage over the US (let alone Taiwan), resulting in a bigger GDP still. And then we are still assuming no penalty for diversity quotas and the like in the US. Which would be surprising if you could have such a massive phenomenon for free.

    • Replies: @Escher
    @reiner Tor

    Good point.
    I wonder how much the US economy benefits from the sheer purchasing power of the country in terms of negotiating the best prices for imports.
    Almost all consumer products are cheaper in America than anywhere else.

  84. @Hyperborean
    @E. Harding


    It seems the real question, since the coastal provinces, and especially the coastal cities (e.g., Shanghai, comparable to Taiwan already) are quite developed, have reasonably high human capital, and are developing at a reasonable pace, is the development (and potential development, including human capital) of the non-coastal provinces.

    [...]

    Ultimately, the equilibrium seems to be far greater internal inequality than within the United States, which will prevent Chinese GDP/capita from ever converging to Korean or Japanese levels even under institutions of similar quality.
     

    If provincial population ratios remained static I think this would be true, however while regional inequality will increase, I don't think it will significantly affect national GDP per capita due to internal migration making the centres of population density increasingly centred in the coast and the provincial capitals.

    Even if left-behind regions lag behind they will comprise an ever lower portion of the country's population and become more irrelevant from a national perspective (though of course, not particularly pleasant for the remaining residents).

    1997, direction of migration flows:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/0BtI_QURfWy-89RwnV3stxfG73YOAkPFiFYnkLHx0hudYpmwrDUWMkGkvG6nUlI4YpxPoFJI98QfhaC4xSPmhPYpxgEcwysgKeAb_zwjLFEcaGtIlfc=w1280

    1990-2005 aggregate, a numerical estimate:

    https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/2012/02/articles/main/20120225_CHM972.png

    For the last series (unfortunately, due to broken secondary links, I don't know the date for this data):

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uYwATDJNhg8/Ui7L0rRaVDI/AAAAAAAAKQs/sQaOliArUKE/s1600/Three+mega+regions.png

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-M_Z3CaP9_WQ/Ui7MIE9KbRI/AAAAAAAAKQ0/bj34g1D4aZQ/s1600/Lesser+coastal+regions.png

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9eavELsLdlE/Ui7MxZObDzI/AAAAAAAAKRE/Cq7zh0hoouw/s1600/provincial+capitals.png

    http://matthartzell.blogspot.com/2013/09/chinese-domestic-migration-map.html?m=1

    Note for reasons explained in the post the percentages in the more thinly populated western provinces will end up looking more extreme than the population shifts really are.

    ----

    To Karlin: your "American Alpha" link is broken.

    Replies: @songbird

    The US is viewed as a high mobility country, but I know people who refuse to move to areas where they would have a higher standard living (ex: a much better house, at a much cheaper price) because they don’t like the demographics of the state they would be moving to. I presume China, being more homogeneous, would not suffer this problem to the same extent. Of course, this might be balanced out by the fact that they don’t have “yellow flight”, from their urban centers. But I understand that many still have lengthy commutes.

    Of course, unions never really achieved power in China, so there might be less impetus for businesses to move. And I’m not sure whether the one child policy might tie people down more than if there were multiple siblings. But on the whole, it seems like moving to depressed areas might be more attractive than in India, where people might dislike crossing tribal boundaries.

    In the US, areas where people moved away from (racially white) became reforested, and considered scenic places where you could observe nature, and good places for recreation.

  85. Almost all US population growth from now to 2050 will accrue to lower IQ ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic Whites are in outright natural decline.

    That’s actually not quite true. While US Asians are probably reproducing at below-replacement levels, their numbers are actually being heavily replenished through mass immigration:

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2018/09/asian-immigrants-latin-americans-united-states-study-news/

    https://usa.inquirer.net/7041/asians-will-largest-immigrant-group-us-2055

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Mr. XYZ

    Immigration from the high IQ Asian countries is rapidly drying up. https://cis.org/Report/Immigrant-Population-Growth-Slows

    https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/camarota-imm-pop-2020-t2.jpg

    Annatar from another thread:

    From 2010-17, number of Chinese immigrants grew from 2.167m to 2.844m, only rose to 2.854m by 2019, no growth
    Number of Russian immigrants declined from 404,000 to 392,000

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ

  86. @AlexanderGrozny
    One of the fastest growing groups in the US is East Asians, and African Americans have sub replacement fertility rates, so your point about "most of the US growth being in lower IQ groups" isn't entirely true.

    Replies: @Another German Reader

    It takes dozens of MSc & Phd candidates and several professors plus years of hard work and millions of research grants/budget to conduct scientific research this days – even for mid-scale projects.

    But it takes only one single Syrian rocket-scientist and 1€-knife plus 2 minutes to destroy the lives of the above-mentioned Nobel-prize-winning research-team.

    It takes several productive persons’ tax payments to feed, house and police the 5 children of an aspiring rapper.

    Biden goons and Trump soldiers might speak louder at the family gathering, they do not pull out the 9mm and shoot each other.

    But if a boy from the Remno clan disrespect a boy from the Aziz clan, the Berlin police department better call in reenforcement.

    You see quality can only offset mediocrity only up to a certain level.

  87. @Realist
    The biggest threat to America is Americans...not Chinese.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    • Thanks: Realist
  88. @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    [MORE]

  89. @utu
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    Replies: @AP, @Another German Reader, @Philip Owen, @God's Fool

    How much is the West ahead due to sneakerheads’ obsession?

  90. @Mitleser
    @Wency

    AK did ask basically the same question about Russia: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russia-no-video-games/
    One of the answers:


    1. I assume that Russia’s own, partially independent IT ecosystem soaks up a much larger share of the local programming talent than is the case in East-Central Europe, where the great bulk of the IT ecosystem is an extension of Silicon Valley.
     
    SAP, one of the top software companies of the world is Germany-based.
    So, maybe the German IT ecosystem has also other priorities, and developing computer games being not one of them.

    Replies: @Wency

    That’s a good thought that hadn’t occurred to me. France (and for that matter, Japan) doesn’t have anything like SAP, which could have something to do with why their top software companies are video game companies.

    The US is able to be #1 in gaming and every other sort of software due to its size and its brain vacuum, pulling in half the talent of Asia and Europe to work on this stuff as well. But other countries, even major economies, mostly need to pick one or the other.

  91. @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China’s EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that’s all.

    • Replies: @d dan
    @last straw

    China can never win:

    If China keeps low profile: proof that Chinese is conformist and uncreative.
    If China speaks up: proof that Chinese is aggressive and arrogant.
    If China is lagging: proof of China's backwardness.
    If China is catching up: proof of China's stealing and copying.
    If China is leading: proof of China's security thread to the West.
    If China tries to be Chinese: proof of China's inferiority.
    If China tries to be Western: proof of Western superiority.

    Remember the famous "A Poem for the West"?

    Replies: @Ray Caruso

    , @Blinky Bill
    @last straw

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!



    https://www.brandinginasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Top-Chinese-Brands-2018-Branding-in-Asia.jpg



    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    Replies: @Lot, @Eugene Norman, @A123

    , @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @128, @last straw

    , @showmethereal
    @last straw

    I made similar points... One person brought up videogames as an example. Well one of the most famous video games out of Japan is a character named Mario - who is an Italian Plumber. He's not Japanese....
    Mr. Miyagi was a very popular move character... He taught Italian American "Daniel-san". Well many seemed to miss - that aside from Okinawans not really considering themselves Japanese - in Karate Kid Part 2 - Mr. Miyagi explains to Daniel when they went to his village that Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn't know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films - was also a Japanese import from China - who had them for centuries before.

    Replies: @last straw, @d dan

  92. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @reiner Tor
    @OneTimeCommentator

    Taiwan is not a real country (inasmuch as it’s not internationally recognized), which probably hurts and has hurt its growth to an extent, like reducing FDI or causing some level of capital flight, and brain drain. China might have other issues with similar results (it’s nominally a communist country, and a totalitarian dictatorship), so perhaps FDI is not as high as it could be either, and perhaps some people leave it due to this as well. Though I think the level of the latter, the human capital flight, is not as high as in Taiwan, I’m willing to say these factors even out. But there’s a chance that these factors net favor Mainland China over Taiwan.

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Also perhaps SJW politics are going to hurt America and the US sphere economies relative to China. Does it hurt productivity to have woman quotas or other diversity quotas in force? Maybe it doesn’t. But maybe it does. China doesn’t have these. Greater meritocracy might help China.

    Replies: @china-russia-all-the-way

    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.

    Does economies of scale by itself add to GDP per capita? I think this is a crucial element to understand because one thing that China won’t have like South Korea and Taiwan are export markets relative to size of domestic economy. China is already the world’s largest exporter, so there’s limited room for doubling exports. South Korea never had this problem in 1990 (where China is approximately in the development cycle).

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Any side bets on how long Taiwan will remain apart from the mainland?

    Replies: @utu, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Astuteobservor II

  93. @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    My point about the Chinese tending to be more entrepreneurial and creative than the Japanese was more of a general assessment of their national personality types based on my experience dealing with and doing business with them.

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    The major Japanese brands like Sony had their heyday in the 70s and 80s marketing Western invented electronics like the transistor radio and compact disc. Sony and most of corporate Japan have been mostly stagnant since the 90s and are generally non-entities in IT and software, and have been struggling against Koreans, Chinese, and others in hardware.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    I don’t think contemporary low level, children’s pop culture exports are an indication of greater creativity. By this standard, Japan would be considered more “creative” than Germany, France, Italy, etc. which I don’t think anyone here would agree with.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Mao’s guerrilla army of Chinese Communists is generally considered the victor of the 2nd Sino-Japanese War against Imperial Japan, so I don’t see how this indicates anything. Remember that by then Japan had been copying the West for almost 3 quarters of a century. Despite all that copying, Japan’s performance is generally regarded as unimpressive, whether against Chinese guerrillas, the Soviets at Khalkhin Gol, and of course the US.

    • LOL: EldnahYm
  94. @Dmitry
    @rensselaer


    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller

     

    Japanese and Chinese are more or less the same race, and they look like the same nationality. However, one is a developed culture and the other is third world culture. Culture is determining the difference between the countries (such as in this example, where in the 20th century almost the same race can produce one of the world's most successful advanced countries, and one of the world's most unsuccessful countries).

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again - the importance of cultural divergence.

    any of an IQ advantage

     

    "IQ" tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    This correlation with industrialization of a country, however, is more as effect, than as cause.

    Industrialized society formally indoctrinates children with concepts like time discipline and test-taking culture, and this is the cause of higher scores in "IQ tests".

    In societies at a lower historical stage, the children will not understand what they are supposed to conform to (and will answer questions more creatively), and will not be indoctrinated with time-discipline.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, s

     

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    So the cultural divergence of high achievement in Japan from the low achievement in China, can be perceived for a few centuries, until around the beginning 21st century.


    -

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films - they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    Replies: @rensselaer, @Eugene Norman, @annamaria

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    This doesn’t make any sense. There was no notion “third world” and “first world” in the pre-modern encounters between the West and East Asia. The first Westerners to travel to both China and Japan were the Iberians and Jesuits in the 16th century. Shortly after these Iberians and Jesuits visited Japan, Japan went totally isolationist with the Edo Period which started in 1603. Westerners were expelled from Japan, and there was strict segregation between Japanese and Westerners. The only Westerners permitted contact with Japan were a small group of Dutch traders, and this was under highly strict, segregated conditions on a specific island that ordinary Japanese were not allowed to enter, and Dutch were not allowed to leave.

    This isolationism lasted until the Meiji Restoration when Japan underwent a wholesale copying of the West.

    The “cultural divergence” was just a much smaller, conformist society copying the West much earlier than China did.

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    Neither of them had much “advanced research in maths” in premodern times. If you’re going to cite 17th century Japanese mathematics, it’s not any more impressive than the history of Chinese math, especially since the 17th century Japanese stuff is largely derived from earlier Chinese work on algebraic operations.

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    Japan had been copying the West for more than half a century then, so I’m not sure why it would be notable that they resemble European films.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films – they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    I don’t see why this wouldn’t characterize the bulk of Japanese pop culture, which is mainly for the children’s market even if many adults now play video games and watch anime.

  95. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    Let’s try to incorporate some numbers! This is Karlin’s blog after all.

    2050

    China: 1.4 billion
    US: 380 million

    In 2050, China will have 3.7 times more people than the US. If China’s GDP per capita is 50% of US GDP per capita, then aggregate Chinese GDP is 185% of US GDP.

    2019

    US: $65,300
    South Korea: $31,800 [48.6% of the US]

    South Korea still hasn’t managed to achieve 50% GDP per capita. For China to reach 50% requires the US to be less economically robust in 2050 then in 2019. That will likely be the case. The trend for the US over the last several decades has been a slide towards low growth stagnation. I believe US real GDP growth per capita over the next several decades will be substantially under 1%.

    World Bank DataBank

    1980-1999: 2.3%
    2000-2019: 1%
    2020-2050: Surely substantially under 1%?

    Demographically the US will be about 45% white and 7% Asian in 2050. California in 2020 is worse demographically, but the state economy has held together and many enclaves are thriving. So I doubt there will be any economic collapse in the US by 2050 due primarily to demographics.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    In 2050, Nigeria's projected pop will be 401 million. Bigger than the US! More than 8x America's black pop! Should be quite interesting to see.

    , @AP
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    We reached similar conclusions.

  96. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    For a 10 year period, Japan’s GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US.

    Unbelievable that Japan had a higher GDP per capita 25 years ago than today.

    • Replies: @128
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Around that time the Japanese yen was at 80 to a dollar.

    , @Shortsword
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    That wasn't a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan's decline in growth.

    Replies: @A123

    , @utu
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    What if the halting of Japan's growth was engineered by Bank of Japan going against the Ministry of Finance that was responsible for Japan's economic model? According to this documentary it took years to carry it out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-IZZxyb1GI

    Pulling away the curtains from the 'Princes of the Yen'
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2003/08/10/books/book-reviews/pulling-away-the-curtains-from-the-princes-of-the-yen/

    Richard A. Werner has written a rare book. “The Princes of the Yen” is a scholarly, thoroughly researched treatise on economics that reads like a detective novel.

    The book is about the autocrats who run the Bank of Japan, how they operate and what they have been trying to achieve. In the process, many puzzles about Japan’s economy are solved. These “princes” are neither elected by Japanese citizens nor held accountable to their elected officials. Presiding princes choose their successors who, in turn, seem to be accountable only to their benefactors.

    Werner specifically accuses the princes of surreptitiously using their control over Japan’s supply of credit to prevent an economic recovery for the past decade. Why? In order to achieve the “reform” or transformation of Japan’s economy into a carbon copy of today’s U.S. economy that the princes deemed necessary for Japan.

    Werner begins by pointing out something rarely discussed in Japan: that the “traditional” Japanese economic model — widely considered responsible for the “economic miracle” that built the world’s second-largest economy from the bombed-out ruins of World War II in just 30 years — isn’t traditional at all.

    Company unions, lifetime employment, government regulation and a business ethos favoring cooperation over competition and customers and employees over stockholders were consciously introduced during World War II. With the approval of the U.S., Japan retained its wartime economic system and kept its bureaucratic elite in power. This enabled Japan’s “economic miracle” and conquest of world markets after the war.

    Werner says money was the main tool bureaucrats used to control Japan’s economy during and after the war. The credit controls survived largely unchanged into the postwar era, taking the form of the extralegal and secretive “window guidance” operated by the BOJ. According to Werner, “guiding” credit to selected industries and preventing others, such as consumers, from obtaining it, was at the core of Japan’s postwar success.

    Werner next examines why these “princes of the yen” crippled Japan’s economy from the mid-1980s. Werner uses the princes’ own utterances, together with an analysis of their actual but little-known credit policies, to reveal their goals. These were never secret, but plain for all to see. The princes have consistently argued for the need to “reform” or “transform” Japan’s economy, through structural changes, into the type of deregulated and liberalized system demanded by U.S. trade negotiators.

    Werner traces the origin of this reform movement, now mostly associated with Koizumi and Finance Minister Heizo Takenaka, back to 1983 when “prince” Tadashi Sasaki called for a transformation and liberalization of the Japanese economy.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Mefobills

  97. @last straw
    @Lot


    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

     

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China's EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that's all.

    Replies: @d dan, @Blinky Bill, @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    China can never win:

    If China keeps low profile: proof that Chinese is conformist and uncreative.
    If China speaks up: proof that Chinese is aggressive and arrogant.
    If China is lagging: proof of China’s backwardness.
    If China is catching up: proof of China’s stealing and copying.
    If China is leading: proof of China’s security thread to the West.
    If China tries to be Chinese: proof of China’s inferiority.
    If China tries to be Western: proof of Western superiority.

    Remember the famous “A Poem for the West”?

    • Agree: Ray Caruso, SveVid
    • Replies: @Ray Caruso
    @d dan

    (((Neocons))) are fomenting a war between the US and China. They will not allow a country they cannot dominate to become the world's leading power. If, as a result, most Americans perish along with the Chinese, that's a sacrifice they are willing for Americans to make.

  98. @Svevlad
    It will either way - not because of some ludicrous Chinese growth, but due to American decline and collapse

    Replies: @Mary Marianne

    I can’t see how the USA will not collapse within the next 10 years when, from an outsider’s perspective, it looks like everyone has gone to the nutty-bin.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Mary Marianne

    America is a crazy and dysfunctional country. But much things we are shocked about in America today, were just as bad in the 1980s, or even 1960s America. While the propaganda in the Soviet times, exaggerated many of the negative aspects of America's internal life; they didn't always have to exaggerate very much - more often you can find a basis of truth in their claims.

    This internal dysfunction in America, coexisted with external success and power in the 20th century. (It's not impossible for internal dysfunction and external success to coexist, at certain times of history.)

    -

    There is however, a difference in the mood about America, which is result of the technological change. There was no internet in the 1980s or 1990s, so both the attention of Americans was focused in a different way, and also with a different filter on what aspect of the country's discourse was exported abroad.

    Now we are getting a much greater access to American negative internal information abroad. For example, knowledge about the terrible incompetence of NASA is being exported abroad - you can access the internal American documentary on the Challenger disaster, from Netflix at any time.

    Internet also changes peoples' perception of their own country. Until 2000, you would access the "national life" through glamorous television shows, with beautiful and well-speaking presenters. Whereas now, most Americans access their national discussion, through the internet, and with internet you are thrown into an unglamorous reality of ordinary people and their complaints.

    This mass switchover from television to internet, is also happening now in Russia, with around 10 years of delay in comparison to USA. As more and more millions of people are moving from the television to the internet as their main engagement with national discussions, there is much more focus on the negative problems in the country. This "deglamorization" and "demoralization" is not necessarily a bad thing; it can be reversing some of the rosy glasses that was unnaturally promoted by television culture.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

  99. @china-russia-all-the-way
    Let's try to incorporate some numbers! This is Karlin's blog after all.

    2050

    China: 1.4 billion
    US: 380 million

    In 2050, China will have 3.7 times more people than the US. If China's GDP per capita is 50% of US GDP per capita, then aggregate Chinese GDP is 185% of US GDP.

    2019

    US: $65,300
    South Korea: $31,800 [48.6% of the US]

    South Korea still hasn't managed to achieve 50% GDP per capita. For China to reach 50% requires the US to be less economically robust in 2050 then in 2019. That will likely be the case. The trend for the US over the last several decades has been a slide towards low growth stagnation. I believe US real GDP growth per capita over the next several decades will be substantially under 1%.

    World Bank DataBank

    1980-1999: 2.3%
    2000-2019: 1%
    2020-2050: Surely substantially under 1%?

    Demographically the US will be about 45% white and 7% Asian in 2050. California in 2020 is worse demographically, but the state economy has held together and many enclaves are thriving. So I doubt there will be any economic collapse in the US by 2050 due primarily to demographics.

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    In 2050, Nigeria’s projected pop will be 401 million. Bigger than the US! More than 8x America’s black pop! Should be quite interesting to see.

  100. @china-russia-all-the-way
    Let's try to incorporate some numbers! This is Karlin's blog after all.

    2050

    China: 1.4 billion
    US: 380 million

    In 2050, China will have 3.7 times more people than the US. If China's GDP per capita is 50% of US GDP per capita, then aggregate Chinese GDP is 185% of US GDP.

    2019

    US: $65,300
    South Korea: $31,800 [48.6% of the US]

    South Korea still hasn't managed to achieve 50% GDP per capita. For China to reach 50% requires the US to be less economically robust in 2050 then in 2019. That will likely be the case. The trend for the US over the last several decades has been a slide towards low growth stagnation. I believe US real GDP growth per capita over the next several decades will be substantially under 1%.

    World Bank DataBank

    1980-1999: 2.3%
    2000-2019: 1%
    2020-2050: Surely substantially under 1%?

    Demographically the US will be about 45% white and 7% Asian in 2050. California in 2020 is worse demographically, but the state economy has held together and many enclaves are thriving. So I doubt there will be any economic collapse in the US by 2050 due primarily to demographics.

    Replies: @songbird, @AP

    We reached similar conclusions.

  101. @last straw
    @Lot


    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

     

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China's EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that's all.

    Replies: @d dan, @Blinky Bill, @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    [MORE]

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Blinky Bill

    Great collection of “things you get when you can’t afford anything better.”

    “Anker” is one of their very top brands? Do they make anything other than USB batteries and cords? Do you think a US equivalent would have “Belkin” as a top brand?

    Korea is 95% smaller than China, but has vastly more trusted brands.

    , @Eugene Norman
    @Blinky Bill


    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!
     
    The top 4 or 5 are world famous.
    , @A123
    @Blinky Bill

    Knowing a brand and trusting a brand are two very different things.

    #38 -- Chery (a.k.a. Cherry) Auto is on your list. Their brand identity in the U.S. & Europe dates back ~10 Years to a series of OMG EPIC FAIL crash tests. The one below would have resulted in driver decapitation.

    Below the MORE line you can see the comparable test for a current Mazda. Don't be fooled by the air bag. Look at the vehicle roof deformation to understand how badly the Chery Amulet/A15 performed.

    #43 -- Geely was also shamed during crash testing, but did better than Chery.

    PEACE 😇

    https://youtu.be/f7rrk3ZjN-I?t=1

    https://youtu.be/IvnwqWsdd7E?t=13

    Replies: @last straw

  102. Holy cow! Lively discussion of Chinese GDP in 2050, 100 comments and counting. Why don’t we ask a more pressing question: will humans survive the next 30 years? If the electoral fraud in the US stands, the country with huge nuclear arsenal would have hopelessly senile president. There is a non-negligible chance that Alzheimer-in-Chief, due to his own stupidity or the stupidity of neocons manipulating this hapless puppet, starts WWIII. Then the issue of GDP, Chinese or any other, becomes moot.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
    @AnonFromTN

    This is a very serious question but the presence of a senile POTUS is counterbalanced (among other things) by the increased military power of Russia and China. The USA reported success in testing of ICBM interception capabilities just a few days back but that didn't include hypersonic missiles or realistic, difficult circumstances.

    , @HeebHunter
    @AnonFromTN

    I agree that muttmerica is like a squriming, writhing Kraken in it's death throes, and those tentacles are dangerous.
    But we have to remember that Muttmerica' "Full Spectrum Dominance" has been dead for a long time. MAD is real, but overestimated.
    Any country that launches a nuke will find itself to be the sole schizo in this era. Which is why Pissrael hasn't nuked Iran or Lebanon yet.

    If anything, my favorite scenario is that Kamala will launch a stupid nuke and then the world will pound together on muttmerica, depopulating every cm of that demonic country. Then we all get to play stalker for real for a century. The Wild West, remastered with western infantry weapon systems, rebooted!
    LOL

  103. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @reiner Tor


    Then there’s economies of scale. China has that, Taiwan has not. So China should definitely converge to a higher level than Taiwan, based on that alone.
     
    Does economies of scale by itself add to GDP per capita? I think this is a crucial element to understand because one thing that China won't have like South Korea and Taiwan are export markets relative to size of domestic economy. China is already the world's largest exporter, so there's limited room for doubling exports. South Korea never had this problem in 1990 (where China is approximately in the development cycle).

    Replies: @Pericles

    Any side bets on how long Taiwan will remain apart from the mainland?

    • Replies: @utu
    @Pericles

    Until CCP relinquish its power in China.

    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @Pericles

    There is fatalism in Taiwan about reunification. The younger generation does not want to fight for independence. So it will happen in the long term.

    , @Astuteobservor II
    @Pericles

    I was betting on before 2030. It is now 2025. The shorter date is because of the recent activities in 2020.

  104. @Blinky Bill
    @last straw

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!



    https://www.brandinginasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Top-Chinese-Brands-2018-Branding-in-Asia.jpg



    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    Replies: @Lot, @Eugene Norman, @A123

    Great collection of “things you get when you can’t afford anything better.”

    “Anker” is one of their very top brands? Do they make anything other than USB batteries and cords? Do you think a US equivalent would have “Belkin” as a top brand?

    Korea is 95% smaller than China, but has vastly more trusted brands.

  105. @another one
    Again everyone is assuming that “America” is going to be farting into the wind while China bulldozes its way over its hegemony. Where are all the resources coming from for a nation of billions to have per capita equivalents to the developed world? Africa? Already the noose is tightening in the South China Sea. It would be a cinch to tie it up by provoking some conflict in any region on their borders. Corona aka the Chinese flu despite a very suspicious origin is and will still be commonly attributed to the region where it famously became publicized. The entire world will remember the broad outline of the Chinese menace that destroyed them in the year 2020 even if the details will be lost to history. There will be war.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman

    Where will the resources that China needs come from? From whatever supplier wishes to make more money selling to them. China is, despite western propaganda, popular in Africa.

  106. @china-russia-all-the-way
    For a 10 year period, Japan's GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US.

    https://i.imgur.com/GJlbXEO.png

    Unbelievable that Japan had a higher GDP per capita 25 years ago than today.

    Replies: @128, @Shortsword, @utu

    Around that time the Japanese yen was at 80 to a dollar.

  107. The Japanese immigrants were actually known to be small business owners or farmland owners before WW2, maybe the Westerners think that the Japanese are more organized simply because Japan was a lot smaller than China, and hence easier to rule. The Japanese only adopted Western culture superficially after 1851, but otherwise remained culturally distinct. As for Taiwan, if brain drain is a problem, then it was only a problem in the past few years, in MER terms, Taiwanese GDP per capita started to fall behind Korean GDP per capita starting in the 2000s. And Taiwan makes up for its small domestic market with its very large export market.

  108. @Dmitry
    @rensselaer


    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller

     

    Japanese and Chinese are more or less the same race, and they look like the same nationality. However, one is a developed culture and the other is third world culture. Culture is determining the difference between the countries (such as in this example, where in the 20th century almost the same race can produce one of the world's most successful advanced countries, and one of the world's most unsuccessful countries).

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again - the importance of cultural divergence.

    any of an IQ advantage

     

    "IQ" tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    This correlation with industrialization of a country, however, is more as effect, than as cause.

    Industrialized society formally indoctrinates children with concepts like time discipline and test-taking culture, and this is the cause of higher scores in "IQ tests".

    In societies at a lower historical stage, the children will not understand what they are supposed to conform to (and will answer questions more creatively), and will not be indoctrinated with time-discipline.

    Japan’s advantage is that it’s smaller and even more conformist relative to China, s

     

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    So the cultural divergence of high achievement in Japan from the low achievement in China, can be perceived for a few centuries, until around the beginning 21st century.


    -

    The cultural production level in 1930s Japan, was very sophisticated. For example, if you watch Japanese films of the 1930s (for example, Mizoguchi 1930s films), these films are already seem highly cultured and European, as well extremely critical of society and sceptical of Japanese society.

    On the other hand, to the extent we can watch Chinese films - they seem to be made for children, and do not criticize their own society.

    Replies: @rensselaer, @Eugene Norman, @annamaria

    Japan has since the first encounters with the West, seemed very developed, with almost European kind of ability level. While China has been a very third world level, with third world levels of achievement. Japan has been almost at a European level (first world level), while China has been a stereotypical Asian (i.e.third world). Again – the importance of cultural divergence.

    Historically of course the Chinese were one of the world’s great powers and civilisations. Equal to the West/Europe for most of its history, more civilised from 500-1500 or so.

    “IQ” tests cultural conformity of the person who takes the test, to the expectation of the test designer of the particular puzzle. It can correlate with industrialization of a country.

    Not at all. There’s a strong correlation between IQ and individual success, and between IQ and national success. Although the measuring the latter is a bit suspect.

    China has had no scientific contributions until around 20-30 years ago. While Japan had advanced research in maths in the 17th century.

    Nonsense.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_mathematics

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  109. @Blinky Bill
    @last straw

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!



    https://www.brandinginasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Top-Chinese-Brands-2018-Branding-in-Asia.jpg



    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    Replies: @Lot, @Eugene Norman, @A123

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    The top 4 or 5 are world famous.

  110. @Blinky Bill
    @last straw

    Top-Chinese-Brands-2018

    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!



    https://www.brandinginasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Top-Chinese-Brands-2018-Branding-in-Asia.jpg



    How many of the them does the average world citizen recognize or has used/purchased?

    Give yourself a score!

    Replies: @Lot, @Eugene Norman, @A123

    Knowing a brand and trusting a brand are two very different things.

    #38 — Chery (a.k.a. Cherry) Auto is on your list. Their brand identity in the U.S. & Europe dates back ~10 Years to a series of OMG EPIC FAIL crash tests. The one below would have resulted in driver decapitation.

    Below the MORE line you can see the comparable test for a current Mazda. Don’t be fooled by the air bag. Look at the vehicle roof deformation to understand how badly the Chery Amulet/A15 performed.

    #43 — Geely was also shamed during crash testing, but did better than Chery.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @last straw
    @A123

    SAIC, Geely models pass European crash test with 4 stars:
    https://europe.autonews.com/article/20111130/ANE/111129908/saic-geely-models-pass-european-crash-test-with-flying-colors

    You don't see much report when Chinese cars pass safety tests.

    Last year, China Automobile Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) has become the first co-approved test facility outside of Europe by Euro NCAP. It was approved to conduct Euro NCAP related crash tests in China with accredited Europe test labs. The co-approved test facility is located in Chongqing, China.
    https://www.horiba-mira.com/media-centre/news/2019/07/15/mira-china-and-caeri-partner-to-be-the-first-co-approved-supplier-for-euro-ncap-crash-tests-in-china/

    Nio ES8 EV probably will have good safety rating when it is exported to Europe next year:
    https://www.chinapev.com/ev-2/nio/reliable-or-not-nio-es8-crash-test-interpretation/

    Be patient. It's just a matter of time when China will produce world-class safe cars.

  111. @last straw
    @Lot


    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

     

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China's EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that's all.

    Replies: @d dan, @Blinky Bill, @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    • Replies: @128
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Tesla > BYD or whatever Chinese electric car, how is anyone really going to dispute this? Also how many Chinese watch Netflix?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    , @last straw
    @AlexanderGrozny


    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.
     
    I see you don't know much about the auto industry. None of the EV manufacturers I mentioned produce rip-offs. That's why Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are doing quite well on the U.S. stock markets, and Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway never attempted to sell their shares in BYD.

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny

  112. @Mr. XYZ

    Almost all US population growth from now to 2050 will accrue to lower IQ ethnic groups. Non-Hispanic Whites are in outright natural decline.
     
    That's actually not quite true. While US Asians are probably reproducing at below-replacement levels, their numbers are actually being heavily replenished through mass immigration:

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2018/09/asian-immigrants-latin-americans-united-states-study-news/

    https://usa.inquirer.net/7041/asians-will-largest-immigrant-group-us-2055

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    Immigration from the high IQ Asian countries is rapidly drying up. https://cis.org/Report/Immigrant-Population-Growth-Slows

    Annatar from another thread:

    From 2010-17, number of Chinese immigrants grew from 2.167m to 2.844m, only rose to 2.854m by 2019, no growth
    Number of Russian immigrants declined from 404,000 to 392,000

    • Replies: @A123
    @Anatoly Karlin

    AK,

    CIS does not allow hot-linking so your attempted graphics embed @ #112 failed for most readers.

    The UR site engine can find local copies of downloaded graphics. Even if it looks good to you, the problem exists for others.

    PEACE 😇

    , @Mr. XYZ
    @Anatoly Karlin

    To be fair, though, the US had Trump as President between 2017 and right now, so that might be a factor in the slowdown of high-IQ Asian immigration to the US. I wonder if under a President Biden we'll once again see a huge increase in the Chinese-American immigrant population just like we did under President Obama; after all, both Obama and Biden are *relatively* pro-immigration.

    Also, even from low-IQ Asian countries such as India, the US still sometimes gets high-IQ immigrants or at least descendants of immigrants; for instance, from India. This could yet continue for quite a while, especially if the US will continue to have pro-immigration Presidents in office. Of course, if the US will ever REALLY open its borders to immigrants from places such as India, then I suspect that the Indian-American population might on average eventually end up looking much more like the British Indian population; so, for instance, an average IQ in the mid- or high-90s (AFAIK, British-born British Indians have an average IQ of 96-97) as opposed to having an average IQ of ~110.

  113. @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @128, @last straw

    Tesla > BYD or whatever Chinese electric car, how is anyone really going to dispute this? Also how many Chinese watch Netflix?

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    , @showmethereal
    @128

    What makes Tesla better??? Do you have any clue??? You are just going off hype. Build quality? Reliability? Go check Consumer Reports what is so great about Tesla. Tesla is starting to work with CATL for a reason. Ask yourself why they aren't working with a US battery company? Ask why they are shifting business from a Japanese one. Ask yourself why Tesla is building out their largest foreign R&D in China and not in Japan...

    And you missed the point. The idea that a lot of Chinese series and movies are on Netflix is because non Chinese watch them now. Yikes!!

  114. @china-russia-all-the-way
    For a 10 year period, Japan's GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US.

    https://i.imgur.com/GJlbXEO.png

    Unbelievable that Japan had a higher GDP per capita 25 years ago than today.

    Replies: @128, @Shortsword, @utu

    That wasn’t a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan’s decline in growth.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @A123
    @Shortsword


    That wasn’t a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan’s decline in growth.
     
    You Are Correct.

    The posters who insist that the world needs a "new reserve currency" miss a crucial point:
    -- The new reserve currency will immediately jump 3-5% due to its status.
    -- The USD will immediately depreciate 3-5% as a non-reserve currency!

    American exports boosted by a 6-10% currency differential would have a massive, employment creating, boom period if they could ditch the Reserve Premium penalty.

    SJW Globalists tampering with trade to inflict SJW values on those who believe in God would be crushed the Reserve Currency becoming something they could not control. This would also be a massive win for all U.S. workers blue, pink, and white collar.

    Huge numbers of new jobs and significantly higher wages would easily devastate any possible inflation penalty. It will be easy to spot the DNC's Chamber of Commerce lackeys. Anyone doom-calling via inflation fear is 100% guaranteed to be a paid enemy collaborator.

    As a Patriotic MAGA American, I give this prayer.


    Dear Lord,

    Please free the Christians of the U.S. from the devastating plague of the Reserve Currency Premium.

    AMEN
     

    If this prayer is answered America will become strong again.

    PEACE 😇

  115. @Mary Marianne
    @Svevlad

    I can't see how the USA will not collapse within the next 10 years when, from an outsider's perspective, it looks like everyone has gone to the nutty-bin.

    Replies: @Dmitry

    America is a crazy and dysfunctional country. But much things we are shocked about in America today, were just as bad in the 1980s, or even 1960s America. While the propaganda in the Soviet times, exaggerated many of the negative aspects of America’s internal life; they didn’t always have to exaggerate very much – more often you can find a basis of truth in their claims.

    This internal dysfunction in America, coexisted with external success and power in the 20th century. (It’s not impossible for internal dysfunction and external success to coexist, at certain times of history.)

    There is however, a difference in the mood about America, which is result of the technological change. There was no internet in the 1980s or 1990s, so both the attention of Americans was focused in a different way, and also with a different filter on what aspect of the country’s discourse was exported abroad.

    Now we are getting a much greater access to American negative internal information abroad. For example, knowledge about the terrible incompetence of NASA is being exported abroad – you can access the internal American documentary on the Challenger disaster, from Netflix at any time.

    Internet also changes peoples’ perception of their own country. Until 2000, you would access the “national life” through glamorous television shows, with beautiful and well-speaking presenters. Whereas now, most Americans access their national discussion, through the internet, and with internet you are thrown into an unglamorous reality of ordinary people and their complaints.

    This mass switchover from television to internet, is also happening now in Russia, with around 10 years of delay in comparison to USA. As more and more millions of people are moving from the television to the internet as their main engagement with national discussions, there is much more focus on the negative problems in the country. This “deglamorization” and “demoralization” is not necessarily a bad thing; it can be reversing some of the rosy glasses that was unnaturally promoted by television culture.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Dmitry

    Yes, internet is useful to discuss about negative national issues that may be (intentionally) avoided by TV or mainstream media.
    However, it has a lot of negative drawbacks.
    1. Probably more misinformation and half truths in the internet than 'truth' especially when it comes to controversial and political topics.
    2. You probably have too much faith in human intelligence to discern the truth from the cacophony of lies, distortions, misinformation etc etc flooding the internet. I generally think the majority of humans are not that smart and even more easily manipulated via internet than traditional media.
    3. 'deglamorization' itself is the NEW GLAMOR!
    4. Internet is not totally 'free' nor 'unbiased' nor 'fair' ... I guess Anatoly Karlin can attest to this. Western Elites, through Western owned or inclined companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter etc have policies that somehow will reduce the influence of narratives that may counter what these elites really want. Internet had been and is still the vehicle used by these Western elites to manipulate the psyche of populations to clamor for regime change in Governments viewed as detriment to Western interests and monopoly on power.

    Internet is a double - edged sword. It's not free from manipulation and control by elites(predominantly from the West) and even dangerous individuals who can destroy countries.

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry

  116. @128
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Tesla > BYD or whatever Chinese electric car, how is anyone really going to dispute this? Also how many Chinese watch Netflix?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    Exactly. China doesn’t produce any innovation of it’s own. Pretty much all of Huawei’s creations are apple fakes.

    • Agree: Tyler Durden
    • Thanks: AaronB
    • Troll: showmethereal
    • Replies: @128
    @AlexanderGrozny

    So why do I see Chinese characters in Chinese TV shows always using an Apple laptop instead of some domestic brand?

    https://www.trustedreviews.com/reviews/iphone-12

    , @Dmitry
    @AlexanderGrozny

    One of the reasons the growth in China's economy is so fast, is because it is powered by importation from abroad of mature technology, rather than technology development.

    Chinese power has wisely prioritized the importation of new kinds of production from abroad, and it seems quite common as a story that foreign companies establish in China more rapidly and efficiently, than in their own countries.

    For example, Tesla is finding it faster to increase production in China, than it was in the USA. Next year the factory in China, could become the largest producing Tesla factory in the world, and it will be exporting from China to Europe. Yet it feels like only a few months ago when they started building this factory, and previously that Tesla was boasting about how it would promote American local production.


    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with over 500,000 cars produced in China next year, supply chain report says

    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with a quicker production ramp than previously expected at Gigafactory Shanghai, based on a new supply chain report.

    At the end of last quarter, Tesla reported a production capacity of 250,000 Model 3 cars at Gigafactory Shanghai in China...

    Now a new report using anonymous sources, including sources within the supply chain, from China’s 36Kr, claim that Tesla is about to surprise us with even higher production.

    They state that Tesla plans to produce 550,000 vehicles, including 300,000 Model 3 cars and 250,000 Model Y cars, at Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021.
     

    https://electrek.co/2020/11/09/tesla-tsla-surprise-over-500000-cars-produced-china-next-year-supply-chain-report/
    , @Blinky Bill
    @AlexanderGrozny

    https://youtu.be/V5KhIx2_jEY

    Replies: @utu

    , @Shortsword
    @AlexanderGrozny

    All these youtube channels making money off westoid cope lol.

    , @last straw
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Then the U.S. should have nothing to worry about Huawei? It's much ado about nothing?

    , @showmethereal
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Poor you... You have been seduced by Winston the South African who failed at his ventures in China while being an English teacher who married a Chinese woman - who now that he left China - the only substance he has in his life is to spend time talking about how China is going to fail. He's the fully white version of Gordon Chang. Except Gordon Chang targets a more educated audience. Winston - aka "Serpent" (what a name - huh?) targets the mundanely ignorant.

    In any event - ask Tim Cook and he will tell you Huawei is very advanced. Go ask ARM who is one the best users of their architecture. Ask Nokia and Ericsson and Cisco and they will say the same regarding network equipment. But you could check the patents to know that.

  117. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    So why do I see Chinese characters in Chinese TV shows always using an Apple laptop instead of some domestic brand?

    https://www.trustedreviews.com/reviews/iphone-12

  118. @Shortsword
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    That wasn't a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan's decline in growth.

    Replies: @A123

    That wasn’t a good thing for Japan. The overvaluation of the yen was one of the major causes of Japan’s decline in growth.

    You Are Correct.

    The posters who insist that the world needs a “new reserve currency” miss a crucial point:
    — The new reserve currency will immediately jump 3-5% due to its status.
    — The USD will immediately depreciate 3-5% as a non-reserve currency!

    American exports boosted by a 6-10% currency differential would have a massive, employment creating, boom period if they could ditch the Reserve Premium penalty.

    SJW Globalists tampering with trade to inflict SJW values on those who believe in God would be crushed the Reserve Currency becoming something they could not control. This would also be a massive win for all U.S. workers blue, pink, and white collar.

    Huge numbers of new jobs and significantly higher wages would easily devastate any possible inflation penalty. It will be easy to spot the DNC’s Chamber of Commerce lackeys. Anyone doom-calling via inflation fear is 100% guaranteed to be a paid enemy collaborator.

    As a Patriotic MAGA American, I give this prayer.

    Dear Lord,

    Please free the Christians of the U.S. from the devastating plague of the Reserve Currency Premium.

    AMEN

    If this prayer is answered America will become strong again.

    PEACE 😇

  119. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    One of the reasons the growth in China’s economy is so fast, is because it is powered by importation from abroad of mature technology, rather than technology development.

    Chinese power has wisely prioritized the importation of new kinds of production from abroad, and it seems quite common as a story that foreign companies establish in China more rapidly and efficiently, than in their own countries.

    For example, Tesla is finding it faster to increase production in China, than it was in the USA. Next year the factory in China, could become the largest producing Tesla factory in the world, and it will be exporting from China to Europe. Yet it feels like only a few months ago when they started building this factory, and previously that Tesla was boasting about how it would promote American local production.

    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with over 500,000 cars produced in China next year, supply chain report says

    Tesla (TSLA) could surprise with a quicker production ramp than previously expected at Gigafactory Shanghai, based on a new supply chain report.

    At the end of last quarter, Tesla reported a production capacity of 250,000 Model 3 cars at Gigafactory Shanghai in China…

    Now a new report using anonymous sources, including sources within the supply chain, from China’s 36Kr, claim that Tesla is about to surprise us with even higher production.

    They state that Tesla plans to produce 550,000 vehicles, including 300,000 Model 3 cars and 250,000 Model Y cars, at Gigafactory Shanghai in 2021.

    https://electrek.co/2020/11/09/tesla-tsla-surprise-over-500000-cars-produced-china-next-year-supply-chain-report/

  120. @china-russia-all-the-way
    For a 10 year period, Japan's GDP per capita (nominal) was actually higher than the US.

    https://i.imgur.com/GJlbXEO.png

    Unbelievable that Japan had a higher GDP per capita 25 years ago than today.

    Replies: @128, @Shortsword, @utu

    What if the halting of Japan’s growth was engineered by Bank of Japan going against the Ministry of Finance that was responsible for Japan’s economic model? According to this documentary it took years to carry it out.

    Pulling away the curtains from the ‘Princes of the Yen’
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2003/08/10/books/book-reviews/pulling-away-the-curtains-from-the-princes-of-the-yen/

    Richard A. Werner has written a rare book. “The Princes of the Yen” is a scholarly, thoroughly researched treatise on economics that reads like a detective novel.

    The book is about the autocrats who run the Bank of Japan, how they operate and what they have been trying to achieve. In the process, many puzzles about Japan’s economy are solved. These “princes” are neither elected by Japanese citizens nor held accountable to their elected officials. Presiding princes choose their successors who, in turn, seem to be accountable only to their benefactors.

    Werner specifically accuses the princes of surreptitiously using their control over Japan’s supply of credit to prevent an economic recovery for the past decade. Why? In order to achieve the “reform” or transformation of Japan’s economy into a carbon copy of today’s U.S. economy that the princes deemed necessary for Japan.

    Werner begins by pointing out something rarely discussed in Japan: that the “traditional” Japanese economic model — widely considered responsible for the “economic miracle” that built the world’s second-largest economy from the bombed-out ruins of World War II in just 30 years — isn’t traditional at all.

    Company unions, lifetime employment, government regulation and a business ethos favoring cooperation over competition and customers and employees over stockholders were consciously introduced during World War II. With the approval of the U.S., Japan retained its wartime economic system and kept its bureaucratic elite in power. This enabled Japan’s “economic miracle” and conquest of world markets after the war.

    Werner says money was the main tool bureaucrats used to control Japan’s economy during and after the war. The credit controls survived largely unchanged into the postwar era, taking the form of the extralegal and secretive “window guidance” operated by the BOJ. According to Werner, “guiding” credit to selected industries and preventing others, such as consumers, from obtaining it, was at the core of Japan’s postwar success.

    Werner next examines why these “princes of the yen” crippled Japan’s economy from the mid-1980s. Werner uses the princes’ own utterances, together with an analysis of their actual but little-known credit policies, to reveal their goals. These were never secret, but plain for all to see. The princes have consistently argued for the need to “reform” or “transform” Japan’s economy, through structural changes, into the type of deregulated and liberalized system demanded by U.S. trade negotiators.

    Werner traces the origin of this reform movement, now mostly associated with Koizumi and Finance Minister Heizo Takenaka, back to 1983 when “prince” Tadashi Sasaki called for a transformation and liberalization of the Japanese economy.

    • Agree: Kent Nationalist
    • Thanks: SveVid
    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @utu

    I saw that documentary a couple of years ago. I was pleasantly surprised that explained what really took place in Japan. And yes at the end of the day - since WW2 Japan has been an outpost of US policy. Even willingly neutering itself to appease US interests. Hence Japanese are the "good Asians".

    , @Mefobills
    @utu

    Nice job UTU,

    Allow me to take you a little deeper.

    The liberalized U.S approach to economics, is actually the Jewish/English system imported into the U.S. by 1912.

    Japan was secretly running industrial capitalism model, which was the American system of Economy. Peshine Smith carried the American System to Japan. Japan also observed Frederick List's operations in Germany.

    The Manchurian rail-road engineers were ensconsed at MITI, and they ran the industrial capitalist model while in Manchuria, during the war.

    At the plaza accords in 1985, the dollar was depreciated against the yen in a quid pro quo scheme.

    As I am want to do, I always follow the Jew. Dual shitizen Stanley Fischer was at IMF at the time, and likely the architect of Japan busting out their fellow citizens.

    This busting out was basically a property bubble. (People that watch the movie will figure it out.)

    The U.S. was being hammered by Japanese INC. in the 80's, and the credit guidance windows scheme/industrial capitalism of Japan was exposed. Industrial Capitalism is the pumping of state credit into industry and the commons.

    So, everybody here who keeps saying the China is copying Japan need to incorporate this historical lesson. Japan learned industrial capitalism from America. America has since lost the American System of Economy, and is now Globo-Homo, or the Jewish British finance capitalism system.

    As a side bar... China has state banks. So, Karlin is making a fundamental error and comparing apples to oranges. China can pump up their debt and then erase said debts. China has already erased debts, especially back in the 90's in order to get a quasi MFN status under Bill Clinton's regime. Debt instruments are housed in a state bank, and are within reach of the law.

    Replies: @Mefobills

  121. @Pericles
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Any side bets on how long Taiwan will remain apart from the mainland?

    Replies: @utu, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Astuteobservor II

    Until CCP relinquish its power in China.

  122. • Replies: @utu
    @Not Only Wrathful

    There is a fundamental problem in the study. If you test masks as a protection among unmasked population all studies will show there is no significant difference. This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected. Perhaps 50 contacts instead of 10. So in long enough period of time masks in the Danish experiment regimen do not make much difference.

    Furthermore this study does not look at the initial viral dose. Do mask wearer get less virus and thus had milder cause of disease? It would be good to know because other studies suggest an affirmative answer to this question.

    This Danish study shows a total misunderstanding of what masks do. Or was sponsored by the Big Pharma that was never into masks because they want to sell drugs and vaccines.

    Asians got masks right. They know that masks are not there to protect you but to protect others. The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    Mask function is to reduce R0 and this happens if there is almost universal masking.


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/?showcomments#comment-4166108
    Obviously a mask reduces the probability p(T) of getting infected in time T but not to zero. Because masks are imperfect. The probability p(T) increases with T and for sufficiently long time T the probability p(T) is 1. Longer time T means more contacts with potentially infectious people. A masked person in the environment of mask-less group has reduced probability of getting infected but in a long enough time as virus jumps from one person to another person the epidemic continues and he remains among the infectious people so in a long enough time T he will get infected as well. He will not be among the first but eventually he will get it.

    But everything changes when almost everybody wears a mask. The probability of virus jumping between people is greatly reduced and the fact that the time an infected person remains infectious is finite means the epidemic can be brought to a halt. By wearing masks we can outlast (on average) the infected mask wearing people. Before the infected people can infect you they cease to be infectious. This means that the reproduction number R0 is dropping below one and getting smaller and then after crossing an infection point as time T increases the probability p(T) of you getting infected is actually getting smaller (because there is less and less infectious people) which is the opposite of what we had in the previous scenario. So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.
     

    Replies: @kirksig

  123. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Mr. XYZ

    Immigration from the high IQ Asian countries is rapidly drying up. https://cis.org/Report/Immigrant-Population-Growth-Slows

    https://cis.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/camarota-imm-pop-2020-t2.jpg

    Annatar from another thread:

    From 2010-17, number of Chinese immigrants grew from 2.167m to 2.844m, only rose to 2.854m by 2019, no growth
    Number of Russian immigrants declined from 404,000 to 392,000

    Replies: @A123, @Mr. XYZ

    AK,

    CIS does not allow hot-linking so your attempted graphics embed @ #112 failed for most readers.

    The UR site engine can find local copies of downloaded graphics. Even if it looks good to you, the problem exists for others.

    PEACE 😇

  124. Chinese just sold negative interest rate debt to the Europeans for the first time.

    The Chinese sale, which attracted final orders of about €16 billion ($18.9 billion) for the €4 billion ($4.7 billion) worth of bonds on offer, included 5-year debt priced with a yield of minus 0.152%. China also sold 10-year and 15-year bonds with yields below 1%.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/19/economy/china-negative-yield-bond/index.html

    People who think that high debt loads will be a problem for Chinese (or Americans for that matter) are incorrect.

    Debt is not a problem when you get paid to borrow. (Its not exactly how negative rates work, but it only takes a few accounting tricks to make it work this way).

    I of course welcome this move. I have been a proponent of negative interest rates for the longest time and can’t wait for them to arrive to the US. This will allow us to reform our current commercial banking system into something much better and I think our friendly overlords at the Federal Reserve are finally getting the point of this inevitability.

    Chinese are simply ahead of the curve as usual. Regardless, there is no alternative.

    • Replies: @128
    @mal

    But that implies that the Chinese corporate landscape is full of zombies sucking up capital that could go to more productive uses.

    , @Mefobills
    @mal


    Chinese are simply ahead of the curve as usual. Regardless, there is no alternative.
     
    First: China selling negative rate bonds to Europeans is not the same as an internal (to the Chinese economy) rate.

    Second, there are always alternatives.

    Negative rates are a bad idea:

    https://sovereignmoney.site/negative-interest

    Only in a bank-money regime would somebody dream up negative rates. China doesn't really have a private bank-money regime, their state bank system is ultimately in control by CCP.

    China routinely releases Yuan debts, which essentially puts Yuan's into circulation debt free. The former debt based Yuan is no longer forced to be recalled to its debt instrument. It is released from debt obligation, hence is debt free.

    One of the tricks that China uses to expand its money supply in proportion to economic growth is targeting industry they want to adopt, and then releasing debts for the laggards. Eventually an industrial champion will emerge that is world-beating.

    Remember the "Ghost Cities." I used to go onto zero hedge and explain to all the nimrod's there that China was simply front loading their economy with Yuans by spending on the cities, and besides the future would fill said cities up.

    Three birds ... one stone. Gain industrial competence, grow your economy, and introduce new debt free money simultaneously.

    Chinese are not stupid. When I listen to globo-homo talking about negative rates, infinity QE, and all kinds of other finance trickery, it makes me hang my head in shame. My western compatriots are either ignorant, or suffer moral turpitude.
  125. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    • Replies: @utu
    @Blinky Bill

    Pro-China twitter propagandist Daniel Dumbrill
    https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dx6hmz/prochina_twitter_propagandist_daniel_dumbrill/

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Blinky Bill, @showmethereal

  126. @Not Only Wrathful
    Masks do nothing and previous "studies" were nonsense

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-masks-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-/amp?__twitter_impression=true

    Replies: @utu

    There is a fundamental problem in the study. If you test masks as a protection among unmasked population all studies will show there is no significant difference. This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected. Perhaps 50 contacts instead of 10. So in long enough period of time masks in the Danish experiment regimen do not make much difference.

    Furthermore this study does not look at the initial viral dose. Do mask wearer get less virus and thus had milder cause of disease? It would be good to know because other studies suggest an affirmative answer to this question.

    This Danish study shows a total misunderstanding of what masks do. Or was sponsored by the Big Pharma that was never into masks because they want to sell drugs and vaccines.

    Asians got masks right. They know that masks are not there to protect you but to protect others. The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    Mask function is to reduce R0 and this happens if there is almost universal masking.

    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/?showcomments#comment-4166108
    Obviously a mask reduces the probability p(T) of getting infected in time T but not to zero. Because masks are imperfect. The probability p(T) increases with T and for sufficiently long time T the probability p(T) is 1. Longer time T means more contacts with potentially infectious people. A masked person in the environment of mask-less group has reduced probability of getting infected but in a long enough time as virus jumps from one person to another person the epidemic continues and he remains among the infectious people so in a long enough time T he will get infected as well. He will not be among the first but eventually he will get it.

    But everything changes when almost everybody wears a mask. The probability of virus jumping between people is greatly reduced and the fact that the time an infected person remains infectious is finite means the epidemic can be brought to a halt. By wearing masks we can outlast (on average) the infected mask wearing people. Before the infected people can infect you they cease to be infectious. This means that the reproduction number R0 is dropping below one and getting smaller and then after crossing an infection point as time T increases the probability p(T) of you getting infected is actually getting smaller (because there is less and less infectious people) which is the opposite of what we had in the previous scenario. So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.

    • Agree: AP, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @kirksig
    @utu


    The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.
     
    But there is obviously an ultimate selfish motive that people should recognize: by engaging in the communal effort of wearing masks to suppress the epidemic, the likelihood of any given individual contracting the virus goes down. So you should be able to appeal to people's selfish motives to get them to wear masks, especially since the cost and effort of wearing a mask is so low.

    So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.
     
    Exactly. The logic is obviously very simple. There is a respiratory virus circulating in the population, and barriers to respiration such as masks slow the spread, lowering the likelihood of any particular individual from contracting the virus from someone else. So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.

    Replies: @utu

  127. Well, the financial repression of consumers is great for corporations, not so great for consumers in terms of their purchasing power.

    • Replies: @mal
    @128

    Which consumer? The rich benefit from low rates because asset prices go up, it makes them richer. Moderately well off 10% benefit from low rates as their 401ks grow securely, guaranteed by Federal Reserve, because stock index funds and bond funds go up in value as well. Their Robin Hood accounts benefit from Fed actions as well.

    Corporations benefit from low rates because cheap money makes it easier to buy back stock and have their CEO buy another yacht. It is also a lot easier to finance a $billion factory at 0% interest rather than 10% interest.

    The poor don't see the low rates so they are screwed but they are screwed either way, high interest rates won't help them.

    Deeply negative interest rates destroy the banks though. Once the banks are weakened they can be safely nationalized and credit can be converted into a public utility like it should be. Then low interest rates will make it to the poor as well, Central Banks will make sure of that. They are already talking about digital currency and national accounts. They know its inevitable.

    And "loss of purchasing power" is nonsense - we some of the lowest inflation rates in the world history right now, aside from the three usual suspects. In US, healthcare and education are inflated because they are operated by gatekeeper cartels, nothing to do with interest rates. Housing is impacted by interest rates, true, but housing prices are not bad out of the bubble areas. If you are poor, don't buy a house in San Francisco, seems pretty simple.

  128. Where most China Experts get there news from! 😂😂😂😂😂

    • LOL: showmethereal
  129. @mal
    Chinese just sold negative interest rate debt to the Europeans for the first time.


    The Chinese sale, which attracted final orders of about €16 billion ($18.9 billion) for the €4 billion ($4.7 billion) worth of bonds on offer, included 5-year debt priced with a yield of minus 0.152%. China also sold 10-year and 15-year bonds with yields below 1%.
     
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/19/economy/china-negative-yield-bond/index.html

    People who think that high debt loads will be a problem for Chinese (or Americans for that matter) are incorrect.

    Debt is not a problem when you get paid to borrow. (Its not exactly how negative rates work, but it only takes a few accounting tricks to make it work this way).

    I of course welcome this move. I have been a proponent of negative interest rates for the longest time and can't wait for them to arrive to the US. This will allow us to reform our current commercial banking system into something much better and I think our friendly overlords at the Federal Reserve are finally getting the point of this inevitability.

    Chinese are simply ahead of the curve as usual. Regardless, there is no alternative.

    Replies: @128, @Mefobills

    But that implies that the Chinese corporate landscape is full of zombies sucking up capital that could go to more productive uses.

  130. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    All these youtube channels making money off westoid cope lol.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  131. @128
    Well, the financial repression of consumers is great for corporations, not so great for consumers in terms of their purchasing power.

    Replies: @mal

    Which consumer? The rich benefit from low rates because asset prices go up, it makes them richer. Moderately well off 10% benefit from low rates as their 401ks grow securely, guaranteed by Federal Reserve, because stock index funds and bond funds go up in value as well. Their Robin Hood accounts benefit from Fed actions as well.

    Corporations benefit from low rates because cheap money makes it easier to buy back stock and have their CEO buy another yacht. It is also a lot easier to finance a $billion factory at 0% interest rather than 10% interest.

    The poor don’t see the low rates so they are screwed but they are screwed either way, high interest rates won’t help them.

    Deeply negative interest rates destroy the banks though. Once the banks are weakened they can be safely nationalized and credit can be converted into a public utility like it should be. Then low interest rates will make it to the poor as well, Central Banks will make sure of that. They are already talking about digital currency and national accounts. They know its inevitable.

    And “loss of purchasing power” is nonsense – we some of the lowest inflation rates in the world history right now, aside from the three usual suspects. In US, healthcare and education are inflated because they are operated by gatekeeper cartels, nothing to do with interest rates. Housing is impacted by interest rates, true, but housing prices are not bad out of the bubble areas. If you are poor, don’t buy a house in San Francisco, seems pretty simple.

  132. @Dmitry
    @Mary Marianne

    America is a crazy and dysfunctional country. But much things we are shocked about in America today, were just as bad in the 1980s, or even 1960s America. While the propaganda in the Soviet times, exaggerated many of the negative aspects of America's internal life; they didn't always have to exaggerate very much - more often you can find a basis of truth in their claims.

    This internal dysfunction in America, coexisted with external success and power in the 20th century. (It's not impossible for internal dysfunction and external success to coexist, at certain times of history.)

    -

    There is however, a difference in the mood about America, which is result of the technological change. There was no internet in the 1980s or 1990s, so both the attention of Americans was focused in a different way, and also with a different filter on what aspect of the country's discourse was exported abroad.

    Now we are getting a much greater access to American negative internal information abroad. For example, knowledge about the terrible incompetence of NASA is being exported abroad - you can access the internal American documentary on the Challenger disaster, from Netflix at any time.

    Internet also changes peoples' perception of their own country. Until 2000, you would access the "national life" through glamorous television shows, with beautiful and well-speaking presenters. Whereas now, most Americans access their national discussion, through the internet, and with internet you are thrown into an unglamorous reality of ordinary people and their complaints.

    This mass switchover from television to internet, is also happening now in Russia, with around 10 years of delay in comparison to USA. As more and more millions of people are moving from the television to the internet as their main engagement with national discussions, there is much more focus on the negative problems in the country. This "deglamorization" and "demoralization" is not necessarily a bad thing; it can be reversing some of the rosy glasses that was unnaturally promoted by television culture.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    Yes, internet is useful to discuss about negative national issues that may be (intentionally) avoided by TV or mainstream media.
    However, it has a lot of negative drawbacks.
    1. Probably more misinformation and half truths in the internet than ‘truth’ especially when it comes to controversial and political topics.
    2. You probably have too much faith in human intelligence to discern the truth from the cacophony of lies, distortions, misinformation etc etc flooding the internet. I generally think the majority of humans are not that smart and even more easily manipulated via internet than traditional media.
    3. ‘deglamorization’ itself is the NEW GLAMOR!
    4. Internet is not totally ‘free’ nor ‘unbiased’ nor ‘fair’ … I guess Anatoly Karlin can attest to this. Western Elites, through Western owned or inclined companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter etc have policies that somehow will reduce the influence of narratives that may counter what these elites really want. Internet had been and is still the vehicle used by these Western elites to manipulate the psyche of populations to clamor for regime change in Governments viewed as detriment to Western interests and monopoly on power.

    Internet is a double – edged sword. It’s not free from manipulation and control by elites(predominantly from the West) and even dangerous individuals who can destroy countries.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @128
    @Sinotibetan

    How much disinformation is being spread by the blog authors and people on this very website? What would China do to the Chinese version of Unz.com and Ron Unz or the bloggers here? Would he be deplatformed from Baidu, Weibao, and Wechat? Thrown in jail for the next 1000 years?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    , @Dmitry
    @Sinotibetan

    I'm not saying public who use the internet, are accessing more reliable information than they did from television before. For many people, they are probably more misinformed now, than ever before the internet was invented.

    My point is just that the changeover of people from receiving access to "national life" from television, to the internet, is the main reason for the demoralization and deglamorization in how they view their country.

    But I think there was something unhealthy with the beautification of the national realities, provided by television. For example, even if you will watch the news to see a report about a tragedy, you are invariably distracted by the fact it is presented by a beautiful woman, with a clear voice and perfect intonation

    Generally, the television is supporting the powers, and gives the impression regardless of reality: "don't worry, everything is in control, things are improving, trust us".

    -

    Naturally, people don't know much beyond what is happening in their area of the city where they live. People's sense of large topics, like "national decline", relates not only to their personal experience, but also the mode and type of media they consume.

    If I can provide example of a New York television report of 1990.

    Objectively, New York was far more criminal and dangerous in 1990, than it is today. But in the example of 1990 television, there is such a happy, charming and poetic man, to present this negative information for us. (Rather than charmless doom we would read on the internet today).

    So even in the 1990 America television report about very negative topics, there is a charming presenter, and his sense of positivity and optimism affects how you receive the topic. For the presenter, the crime of New York seems picturesque and almost literary, and his charisma brings the viewer into this perspective.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LFxrPhNGAk

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

  133. If it could, why doesn’t it?

    There’s no such thing as “capital”, not at zero to negative interest rates. Interest rate is the price of capital and at those rates price of capital is zero. Capital is worthless. Only credit matters. Which is why all your counting of factories and Teslas and other worthless commodities is so cute and quaint. 🙂

    Remember when the world took a vacation for a few weeks back in March-April and oil price went to like negative $37? Yeah, its kinda like that.

    Chinese are using credit to support consumption just like everybody else. They just do it through Keynesian make work corporate projects. I prefer basic income schemes but Chinese way works too, its just less efficient. And if it accomplishes some other non monetary national goal, more power to them.

    Anyway, there is no more “productive” way to use “capital”. The objective of the economy, any economy, is to produce scarce resources. Currently, the most scarce resource is the consumer. Nobody cares about garbage like commodities and capital and “muh productivity”.

    We use credit to create consumer. It is the most productive use of resources we can currently envision. Welcome to the future.

    • Replies: @128
    @mal

    I remember someone saying that if you step into a Japanese corporate office, it was like a throwback to the year 1980 in terms of the technology that they are using, vs. an American office. Like how many American offices still use fax machines? In a normal economy, rows and rows of empty buildings lying around, the vast majority of which will never be lived on, will be regarded as a waste of funds.

    Replies: @mal

    , @AaronB
    @mal

    In an age of automation, most of the economy is in some sense make believe.

    Using credit to create the consumer is a necessary measure when machines do most of our work. This is to be celebrated, not deplored.

    Just, most people have not caught up to where we actually are, and are fighting the last war. There is always a lag time. Its amusing to see this intense discussion revolve around factories.

    , @Levtraro
    @mal

    Let's call it "post-modern Keynesianism". It could bring about a whole new metaphysical econometrics where things don't matter, just feelings and sentiments.

  134. @Blinky Bill
    @AlexanderGrozny

    https://youtu.be/V5KhIx2_jEY

    Replies: @utu

    Pro-China twitter propagandist Daniel Dumbrill

    Pro-China twitter propagandist Daniel Dumbrill from HongKong

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @utu

    Propagandists are from both sides.
    It's human nature to justify and 'intellectualize' the side we favour. I doubt any of us can be truly neutral and objective and dispassionate.

    , @Blinky Bill
    @utu

    Daniel is from the West, but he has a Chinese heart.


    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1263804112732254208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1259733990610632705?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1294262123929903105?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1290465030039904256?s=20


    https://youtu.be/wMUA3GeScUI

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @showmethereal

    , @showmethereal
    @utu

    Propaganda implies falsehoods. He (Daniel Dumbrill) is definitely pro China - but I challenge you to show what he says that is false.... His analysis of the situation in Hong Kong was spot on. Just because a person has a bias doesn't make them a liar. The guy Serpent ZA by contrast is a snake oil salesmen. He actually used to do pro China videos and then when he married a Chinese woman and failed at business attempts left China and does nothing but make silly videos based on unverified claims. Huge difference.

  135. @utu
    @Blinky Bill

    Pro-China twitter propagandist Daniel Dumbrill
    https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dx6hmz/prochina_twitter_propagandist_daniel_dumbrill/

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Blinky Bill, @showmethereal

    Propagandists are from both sides.
    It’s human nature to justify and ‘intellectualize’ the side we favour. I doubt any of us can be truly neutral and objective and dispassionate.

    • Agree: utu
  136. Or for the people here who think the coronavirus pandemic is one big hoax try saying or trying to incite people in the middle of Tiananmen that the coronavirus pandemic is one big hoax, see what would happen to you and your cause right thereafter.

  137. @Sinotibetan
    @Dmitry

    Yes, internet is useful to discuss about negative national issues that may be (intentionally) avoided by TV or mainstream media.
    However, it has a lot of negative drawbacks.
    1. Probably more misinformation and half truths in the internet than 'truth' especially when it comes to controversial and political topics.
    2. You probably have too much faith in human intelligence to discern the truth from the cacophony of lies, distortions, misinformation etc etc flooding the internet. I generally think the majority of humans are not that smart and even more easily manipulated via internet than traditional media.
    3. 'deglamorization' itself is the NEW GLAMOR!
    4. Internet is not totally 'free' nor 'unbiased' nor 'fair' ... I guess Anatoly Karlin can attest to this. Western Elites, through Western owned or inclined companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter etc have policies that somehow will reduce the influence of narratives that may counter what these elites really want. Internet had been and is still the vehicle used by these Western elites to manipulate the psyche of populations to clamor for regime change in Governments viewed as detriment to Western interests and monopoly on power.

    Internet is a double - edged sword. It's not free from manipulation and control by elites(predominantly from the West) and even dangerous individuals who can destroy countries.

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry

    How much disinformation is being spread by the blog authors and people on this very website? What would China do to the Chinese version of Unz.com and Ron Unz or the bloggers here? Would he be deplatformed from Baidu, Weibao, and Wechat? Thrown in jail for the next 1000 years?

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @128

    Disinformation is from both sides. You mean to tell me all pro West blogs/websites are nothing but truthful words with no manipulation and deceit? If so, I am sorry for your naivety and/or great faith.
    You have a binary way of thinking that my criticism of the West = approval/support of what China would do for anti-Chinese websites that appear in their platforms.
    China lacks sophistication in soft power. If an anti-China website appears, they would de-platform it/censor /ban. It somehow backfires on them. It will justify the notion that anti-Chinese rhetoric may be the truth(and I don't mean to say there are no truths in them, there are/might be some).
    The West is sophisticated in soft power, they create a semblance of freedom and fairness but have subtle ways to undermine unfavorable narratives. Example SJWs lead to an almost tyrannical power on the mind on what is to be accepted and what is to be rejected and considered abominable.
    The Chinese(and Russian) reaction by banning and censorship shows their unsophisticated soft power skills. It does not negate the fact that Western governments and elites manipulate, deceive and misinform the masses. They are just more sophisticated than the Chinese and Russians are.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

    , @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @128

    I am pretty sure you can get penalised in China for "spreading rumours" online. I am guessing a Chinese version of Unz Review would not last long.

  138. @mal
    If it could, why doesn't it?

    There's no such thing as "capital", not at zero to negative interest rates. Interest rate is the price of capital and at those rates price of capital is zero. Capital is worthless. Only credit matters. Which is why all your counting of factories and Teslas and other worthless commodities is so cute and quaint. :)

    Remember when the world took a vacation for a few weeks back in March-April and oil price went to like negative $37? Yeah, its kinda like that.

    Chinese are using credit to support consumption just like everybody else. They just do it through Keynesian make work corporate projects. I prefer basic income schemes but Chinese way works too, its just less efficient. And if it accomplishes some other non monetary national goal, more power to them.

    Anyway, there is no more "productive" way to use "capital". The objective of the economy, any economy, is to produce scarce resources. Currently, the most scarce resource is the consumer. Nobody cares about garbage like commodities and capital and "muh productivity".

    We use credit to create consumer. It is the most productive use of resources we can currently envision. Welcome to the future.

    Replies: @128, @AaronB, @Levtraro

    I remember someone saying that if you step into a Japanese corporate office, it was like a throwback to the year 1980 in terms of the technology that they are using, vs. an American office. Like how many American offices still use fax machines? In a normal economy, rows and rows of empty buildings lying around, the vast majority of which will never be lived on, will be regarded as a waste of funds.

    • Replies: @mal
    @128

    Japan is a sad dead country. Their monetary policy is just fine - their GDP per capita have been rising nicely since early 2000's (aside from 2009 but its not their fault), Bank of Japan was doing a proper job of ensuring adequate money supply to support growth.

    But their government are brain dead monkeys. Multiple consumption tax hikes in a consumer based economy where consumers were literally dying out already (net population decline crushes your consumer growth). What were they thinking? Functionally retarded.

    And thanks to correct BoJ policy, Japanese people recieved free $11 trillion. And did they use this money to produce more Japanese and more consumers? Invest in their young? No. They basically gave it to Wall Street like greedy cowards afraid of their own future.

    And now they are dying, paying for their own disgrace.

  139. @utu
    @Blinky Bill

    Pro-China twitter propagandist Daniel Dumbrill
    https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/dx6hmz/prochina_twitter_propagandist_daniel_dumbrill/

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Blinky Bill, @showmethereal

    Daniel is from the West, but he has a Chinese heart.


    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @Blinky Bill

    Hong Kong, Thailand, Portland.

    One struggle (of people with bizarre physiognomy)

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @showmethereal
    @Blinky Bill

    Lee Kwan Yew is a brilliant man. His words regarding the Chinese saying about Asians being practical regarding the bamboo going with the way the wind is blowing. Japan has no choice currently - but aside from India and the DPP in Taiwan - the rest of Asia rejected Trump and Pompeo's attempt to divide Asia against China. They are practical and pragmatic and know how to read the wind.

  140. @128
    @Sinotibetan

    How much disinformation is being spread by the blog authors and people on this very website? What would China do to the Chinese version of Unz.com and Ron Unz or the bloggers here? Would he be deplatformed from Baidu, Weibao, and Wechat? Thrown in jail for the next 1000 years?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    Disinformation is from both sides. You mean to tell me all pro West blogs/websites are nothing but truthful words with no manipulation and deceit? If so, I am sorry for your naivety and/or great faith.
    You have a binary way of thinking that my criticism of the West = approval/support of what China would do for anti-Chinese websites that appear in their platforms.
    China lacks sophistication in soft power. If an anti-China website appears, they would de-platform it/censor /ban. It somehow backfires on them. It will justify the notion that anti-Chinese rhetoric may be the truth(and I don’t mean to say there are no truths in them, there are/might be some).
    The West is sophisticated in soft power, they create a semblance of freedom and fairness but have subtle ways to undermine unfavorable narratives. Example SJWs lead to an almost tyrannical power on the mind on what is to be accepted and what is to be rejected and considered abominable.
    The Chinese(and Russian) reaction by banning and censorship shows their unsophisticated soft power skills. It does not negate the fact that Western governments and elites manipulate, deceive and misinform the masses. They are just more sophisticated than the Chinese and Russians are.

    • Agree: blatnoi
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    In fact, Western soft power is Supreme at the moment, and it's one of the reasons why I don't think China will replace the USA as superpower by 2050. In fact, USA is using soft power to bring regime change in potential rivals and so far they will be relentless with it. And if China is not careful, succeed in it.
    To be frank, I am no fan of CPC nor Xi. And I do recognize many faults with the current Chinese Government. However, I am against the Progressive elites now in power in the West and their progressive ideals even more. To me, it's more of a clash of ideals and I cannot support the current one in vogue in the West. It is my view /conviction that these mad progressive ideals will ultimately drive the West to civilizational suicide and ethnocultural obliteration. It's just not obvious or deemed too ridiculous for many Pro West supporters.
    Rather, it is USA waning in power and prestige in future by concerted efforts of rival powers (not necessarily China) and mostly because of the inability of their own supporters and citizens to see their civilizational doom entirely due to the policies of their elites - ie hegemonic overreach. Too much self belief in their own ideals almost to the point of arrogance. A strange self belief that America or the West can never have the dismal fate of past Empires. To me, the writing is already on the wall for the West.
    To me, China or Russia or other 'non Western' powers should resist these progressive idealogues creeping into their nations until the West ultimately collapses due to the very same ideals.
    Perhaps I am totally wrong about this. Then hurrah for the West. If I am right, then I am just sorry for the demise of the West (which I used to admire).

    Replies: @blatnoi

    , @showmethereal
    @Sinotibetan

    The "brilliance" of US information control/distortion vs Russia and China is its subtlety. For instance in Operation Mockingbird the goal was not to control all stories - but instead to plant stories and use PSYOPS to insert imagery and symbols to affect people's subconscious mind (such as always mentioning "Communist" in front of China or using "regime"). Former CIA agent John Stockwell explains it well too of his own operations in Africa - and what he observed in Jamaica as well.

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

  141. @128
    @mal

    I remember someone saying that if you step into a Japanese corporate office, it was like a throwback to the year 1980 in terms of the technology that they are using, vs. an American office. Like how many American offices still use fax machines? In a normal economy, rows and rows of empty buildings lying around, the vast majority of which will never be lived on, will be regarded as a waste of funds.

    Replies: @mal

    Japan is a sad dead country. Their monetary policy is just fine – their GDP per capita have been rising nicely since early 2000’s (aside from 2009 but its not their fault), Bank of Japan was doing a proper job of ensuring adequate money supply to support growth.

    But their government are brain dead monkeys. Multiple consumption tax hikes in a consumer based economy where consumers were literally dying out already (net population decline crushes your consumer growth). What were they thinking? Functionally retarded.

    And thanks to correct BoJ policy, Japanese people recieved free $11 trillion. And did they use this money to produce more Japanese and more consumers? Invest in their young? No. They basically gave it to Wall Street like greedy cowards afraid of their own future.

    And now they are dying, paying for their own disgrace.

  142. @A123
    @Blinky Bill

    Knowing a brand and trusting a brand are two very different things.

    #38 -- Chery (a.k.a. Cherry) Auto is on your list. Their brand identity in the U.S. & Europe dates back ~10 Years to a series of OMG EPIC FAIL crash tests. The one below would have resulted in driver decapitation.

    Below the MORE line you can see the comparable test for a current Mazda. Don't be fooled by the air bag. Look at the vehicle roof deformation to understand how badly the Chery Amulet/A15 performed.

    #43 -- Geely was also shamed during crash testing, but did better than Chery.

    PEACE 😇

    https://youtu.be/f7rrk3ZjN-I?t=1

    https://youtu.be/IvnwqWsdd7E?t=13

    Replies: @last straw

    SAIC, Geely models pass European crash test with 4 stars:
    https://europe.autonews.com/article/20111130/ANE/111129908/saic-geely-models-pass-european-crash-test-with-flying-colors

    You don’t see much report when Chinese cars pass safety tests.

    Last year, China Automobile Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) has become the first co-approved test facility outside of Europe by Euro NCAP. It was approved to conduct Euro NCAP related crash tests in China with accredited Europe test labs. The co-approved test facility is located in Chongqing, China.
    https://www.horiba-mira.com/media-centre/news/2019/07/15/mira-china-and-caeri-partner-to-be-the-first-co-approved-supplier-for-euro-ncap-crash-tests-in-china/

    Nio ES8 EV probably will have good safety rating when it is exported to Europe next year:
    https://www.chinapev.com/ev-2/nio/reliable-or-not-nio-es8-crash-test-interpretation/

    Be patient. It’s just a matter of time when China will produce world-class safe cars.

  143. @utu
    @Not Only Wrathful

    There is a fundamental problem in the study. If you test masks as a protection among unmasked population all studies will show there is no significant difference. This is because masks reduce the probability of infection but not to zero. It just takes more time to get infected. Perhaps 50 contacts instead of 10. So in long enough period of time masks in the Danish experiment regimen do not make much difference.

    Furthermore this study does not look at the initial viral dose. Do mask wearer get less virus and thus had milder cause of disease? It would be good to know because other studies suggest an affirmative answer to this question.

    This Danish study shows a total misunderstanding of what masks do. Or was sponsored by the Big Pharma that was never into masks because they want to sell drugs and vaccines.

    Asians got masks right. They know that masks are not there to protect you but to protect others. The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    Mask function is to reduce R0 and this happens if there is almost universal masking.


    https://www.unz.com/announcement/31000-words-missing-from-the-atlantic-and-the-new-york-times-sunday-magazine/?showcomments#comment-4166108
    Obviously a mask reduces the probability p(T) of getting infected in time T but not to zero. Because masks are imperfect. The probability p(T) increases with T and for sufficiently long time T the probability p(T) is 1. Longer time T means more contacts with potentially infectious people. A masked person in the environment of mask-less group has reduced probability of getting infected but in a long enough time as virus jumps from one person to another person the epidemic continues and he remains among the infectious people so in a long enough time T he will get infected as well. He will not be among the first but eventually he will get it.

    But everything changes when almost everybody wears a mask. The probability of virus jumping between people is greatly reduced and the fact that the time an infected person remains infectious is finite means the epidemic can be brought to a halt. By wearing masks we can outlast (on average) the infected mask wearing people. Before the infected people can infect you they cease to be infectious. This means that the reproduction number R0 is dropping below one and getting smaller and then after crossing an infection point as time T increases the probability p(T) of you getting infected is actually getting smaller (because there is less and less infectious people) which is the opposite of what we had in the previous scenario. So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.
     

    Replies: @kirksig

    The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.

    But there is obviously an ultimate selfish motive that people should recognize: by engaging in the communal effort of wearing masks to suppress the epidemic, the likelihood of any given individual contracting the virus goes down. So you should be able to appeal to people’s selfish motives to get them to wear masks, especially since the cost and effort of wearing a mask is so low.

    So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.

    Exactly. The logic is obviously very simple. There is a respiratory virus circulating in the population, and barriers to respiration such as masks slow the spread, lowering the likelihood of any particular individual from contracting the virus from someone else. So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @utu
    @kirksig

    "So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus." - There is something in their constitution that prevents them from making this step. While one may argue that there are sets of circumstances where individual actions produce best outcomes:


    It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. - Adam Smith
     
    Libertarians being mono-ideological in their indoctrination phase have never been exposed to cases where individual uncoordinated actions do not lead to an optimal solution or even can lead to the worst possible solution. Most libertarians, except for some guys in Silicon Valley do not have shit. They are not even butchers, brewers, or bakers. Most of them are working stiffs or unemployed who are angry with government. The ideology of libertarianism has no tangible advantage for them. They were indoctrinated into it to prevent them from actions requiring a concerted effort. They are the shield that protects the oligarchy. They are responsible for making life worse for everybody including themselves. Only the oligarchy benefits.
  144. @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @128, @last straw

    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.

    I see you don’t know much about the auto industry. None of the EV manufacturers I mentioned produce rip-offs. That’s why Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are doing quite well on the U.S. stock markets, and Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway never attempted to sell their shares in BYD.

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @last straw, @last straw

  145. @Sinotibetan
    @128

    Disinformation is from both sides. You mean to tell me all pro West blogs/websites are nothing but truthful words with no manipulation and deceit? If so, I am sorry for your naivety and/or great faith.
    You have a binary way of thinking that my criticism of the West = approval/support of what China would do for anti-Chinese websites that appear in their platforms.
    China lacks sophistication in soft power. If an anti-China website appears, they would de-platform it/censor /ban. It somehow backfires on them. It will justify the notion that anti-Chinese rhetoric may be the truth(and I don't mean to say there are no truths in them, there are/might be some).
    The West is sophisticated in soft power, they create a semblance of freedom and fairness but have subtle ways to undermine unfavorable narratives. Example SJWs lead to an almost tyrannical power on the mind on what is to be accepted and what is to be rejected and considered abominable.
    The Chinese(and Russian) reaction by banning and censorship shows their unsophisticated soft power skills. It does not negate the fact that Western governments and elites manipulate, deceive and misinform the masses. They are just more sophisticated than the Chinese and Russians are.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

    In fact, Western soft power is Supreme at the moment, and it’s one of the reasons why I don’t think China will replace the USA as superpower by 2050. In fact, USA is using soft power to bring regime change in potential rivals and so far they will be relentless with it. And if China is not careful, succeed in it.
    To be frank, I am no fan of CPC nor Xi. And I do recognize many faults with the current Chinese Government. However, I am against the Progressive elites now in power in the West and their progressive ideals even more. To me, it’s more of a clash of ideals and I cannot support the current one in vogue in the West. It is my view /conviction that these mad progressive ideals will ultimately drive the West to civilizational suicide and ethnocultural obliteration. It’s just not obvious or deemed too ridiculous for many Pro West supporters.
    Rather, it is USA waning in power and prestige in future by concerted efforts of rival powers (not necessarily China) and mostly because of the inability of their own supporters and citizens to see their civilizational doom entirely due to the policies of their elites – ie hegemonic overreach. Too much self belief in their own ideals almost to the point of arrogance. A strange self belief that America or the West can never have the dismal fate of past Empires. To me, the writing is already on the wall for the West.
    To me, China or Russia or other ‘non Western’ powers should resist these progressive idealogues creeping into their nations until the West ultimately collapses due to the very same ideals.
    Perhaps I am totally wrong about this. Then hurrah for the West. If I am right, then I am just sorry for the demise of the West (which I used to admire).

    • Replies: @blatnoi
    @Sinotibetan

    Agree, just don't comment enough to have the agree button active. This is why I left the US, though to be fair, it was an unconscious series of thoughts that I couldn't formulate that well at the time, but that turned into the way I think now, that is also reflected in your comment.

  146. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    Then the U.S. should have nothing to worry about Huawei? It’s much ado about nothing?

  147. Western culture really did not go off the rails until the mid to late 2000s (think of all the social taboos or fringe social trends in mainstream US society as late as 1985, 1995, or even 2004 or so that are mainstream now). And no, San Francisco and New York are not really considered part of mainstream US culture.

  148. Anon[245] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot
    @Wency

    There’s no question NE asians develop slowest physically.

    We should always assume Rushton’s B-W-A ordering applies to human traits absent good contrary evidence. Of course there are exceptions, like height.

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    But the fact that my view is PC in this one respect doesn’t make my view false. I do think NE Asians have higher and blacks lower intelligence, just not as big of a gap as IQ tests indicate.

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    Replies: @Anon, @snooker player

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    This doesn’t make sense to me. TTT correlates with IQ, IQ is valid in all races, but TTT somehow correlates with IQ at a different … frequency or granularity in the different races? When X strongly correlates with Y, it’s mostly the case that either X is Y or both are mediated or caused by the same thing.

    Google Scholar has only three hits for “test taking temperament, so it’s not something that has been rigorously studied.

    At any rate “IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests” is Myth 22 in Russsell Warne’s new book, In the Know: Debunking 35 Myths about Human Intelligence. He points out that IQ, as measured by written tests, correlates positively and negatively with dozens of outcomes completely external to the test, so the idea that it is some kind of intratest fiction is unsupportable.

    Warne does allow that “test strategy” is a minor factor (when to guess, how much time to spend on questions, and so on). But that is something that can be figured out from the application booklet or can be taught in half an hour, and whether you have figured out these test strategies is itself a measure of intelligence.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

  149. @reiner Tor
    @AP

    Once Chinese GDP is twice the size of the US, economies of scale would actually be significantly better than in the latter. I’m not sure we understand if or how much the USA benefits from higher economies of scale - it certainly depends on the size of the economy more than on the size of the population. Though the latter might matter somewhat, too, which would increase the Chinese advantage over the US (let alone Taiwan), resulting in a bigger GDP still. And then we are still assuming no penalty for diversity quotas and the like in the US. Which would be surprising if you could have such a massive phenomenon for free.

    Replies: @Escher

    Good point.
    I wonder how much the US economy benefits from the sheer purchasing power of the country in terms of negotiating the best prices for imports.
    Almost all consumer products are cheaper in America than anywhere else.

  150. As for Taiwan, admittedly, it was a decent mirror image of what China would be if the KMT won, the poz movement in Taiwan was basically the fringe of the fringe of the fringe as recently as 10 or 15 years ago.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Znzn

    I am not so sure if China would be like Taiwan if KMT won. China at that time(late Qing and early post Qing) was a dying civilization, mired in poverty and dysfunctional. It's a difficult country to govern throughout its entire history. So much of civil wars, divisions into many states and warlodisms, national(and even civilizational) collapse and rebirth. I am unsure if KMT and democracy could have held a country together. Democracy has a tendency to cause even more chaos in a huge country mired in poverty and all kinds of calamities. This is not a mark of approval of Communist China or Mao on my part. They and Mao committed their brand of atrocities. Not to justify atrocities but which regimes in Chinese history never committed atrocities and wars to attain national reunification? Like it or not, the CPC managed to hold the country together. I think the Chinese people had had enough of suffering, unrest and national instability during the death throes of the last dynasty and at the peak of European power in the 19th century and later the instabilities of republican China.
    In the end, most Chinese people just want peace, stability, prosperity - past Tang capital Chang an means everlasting peace. Words like Tai Ping(great peace), ping an(peace) resonates well with Chinese psyche. Hope I translated properly, as I don't speak Mandarin. They are pragmatic in thinking, even Idealism should be subsumed by this pragmatism. That's why despite its many many faults, the current CPC Govt in China is supported(but maybe secretly criticized for their faults) by the Chinese population.

  151. @Zhang Shoucheng
    @Max Payne

    In reply I live in BC and have 7 figures of financial wealth. I stand by everything I said. Every road in the Ukraine has potholes and every road in BC doesn't? Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge. I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.
    A preponderance of Canadians own three vehicles? Wow they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance! By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL "Gullwing", it will end up worth absolutely zero.
    I do admit that comparing BC and the Ukraine is a little bit like comparing apples and oranges. Of course there is substantial poverty in the Ukraine. I have seen this and am aware of it. My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got - not what you paid. GDP should be compared on the basis of PPP and even then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.
    On the basis of PPP China was well ahead of the USA many years ago.

    Replies: @BS, @Max Payne

    What you say are just observations of (universal) bad consumer habits…. Not faults of the country itself.

    My point is that the vast majority of Canadians do not live well at all and what counts in life is what you got – not what you paid.

    Bro…the vast majority of Canadians were just handed $12,000 for nothing and those still jobless got (or are getting) another $16,000 (on top of whatever EI they clocked in) even though employers are sucking dick to hire people. In what country can an individual get $28,000 for a bitch nothing flu? That’s Canadian dollars btw, not rupees or rubels or whatever fake currency people are using.

    I know enough families that appreciated the extra income boost (for example stay-at-home moms get that $12k-$28k, which is a nice cushion on top of her husbands income).

    A drug addict in Vancouver right now is probably shooting up $28k worth of heroin in his veins like a boss.

    The Canadian government will never go bankrupt. It’s just gets cheap sometimes and needs to be reminded it only has 32 odd million people, lots of land and resources, clean water, and the United States as its big-boy pants. I like to stick my hand in my pants sometimes. That’s how I feel when I buy things from the great US market. (it feels awesome in case you were wondering)

    Canadians are really comfortable. Canada is literally the land of milk and honey. If you think otherwise you’re doing Canada wrong. I can’t put it any plainer. Below in the More section is an explanation to how your observations are merely bad consumer habits. Does not mean Canadians aren’t balling it up like its 1999.

    I have driven on the road between Kyiv and Kharkov. It is being improved and eventually will be just as good as any road in BC.

    Building a road is a non-issue. Maintaining a road is. Plowing it, salting it (with salt that is effective and doesn’t cause Chernobyl-level runoff), repaving (thanks plow rape), and doing that while ensuring the road remains open for organized traffic for great distances. You’re talking about year-round seasonal construction on certain stretches of roads. Highway 401 is considered the busiest in North America and has always been in some form of expansion, construction, improvement, or maintenance. The construction equipment are part of the highway.

    Even vaunted Shanghai had some disgusting roads. Sure, Pudong maintains a facade of being uber maintained but move out to Fudan university and you’ll start to wonder how hard is it really to keep all the roads decently maintained…. Especially in such a small area in an international city that can muster cheap labour/materials unhindered by snow or Environment Canada….

    So clearly it’s not as easy as everyone thinks it is (even though it is really easy).

    [MORE]

    Tell that to my rear suspension that was nearly torn apart in a rut in Maple Ridge.

    Nearly torn apart, but not quite. You probably need new rear-shocks or you’re driving on bald tires.

    A bad consumer habit is the lack of proactive maintenance in regards to their automobile. Take care of your car and it will last longer than you. It’s made of metal. It can most assuredly live longer than humans.

    If the damage is significant enough and your insurance covers it file a claim. If the city is at fault everyone is a winner.

    By the way an automobile is a cash flow negative depreciating asset. Unless it is a very specific classic car, such as a Mercedes-Benz 300 SL “Gullwing”, it will end up worth absolutely zero.

    Obviously. You don’t need to buy a brand new car to enjoy it. Everyone knows the value drops by 15% the second you sign the paper. So don’t buy a new car. Got it. 2015 Porsche Cayenne from the US for 14.5k second hand, great condition. Hands in my pants. A 2012 bmw 3 series locally for 7k that needed new coils ($150 cheap aftermarkets and works beautifully). Two half-decent cars that I can enjoy for summer and winter. Pop on Youtube and do your own service. What’s the problem? The alternative is to WASTE MY TIME sitting in public transportation? Then the argument is how much is your time worth?

    Anyway no need to bankrupt yourself to enjoy the fun things in life. Lack of research into alternatives is considered bad consumer habits. Unless you enjoy driving cars with worn out shocks.

    they sure must love paying all their net cash flow to ICBC in vehicle insurance!

    How many accidents have you been in to have high insurance? In my reckless 20s with a “a new driver MALE with a high risk sports car” and enough speeding tickets to be on first name basis with the local Provincial Offences office I wasn’t paying more than $1,200 annually for insurance. Did you run over a Korean family or something?

    I had a girlfriend the same time that drove a gay Yaris, she had no tickets and was paying $1,100 insurance because the car was a death trap. If your car is really old it does pay to get something newer for the insurance.

    Lack of consumer diligence is part of bad consumer habits.

    Have you tried BCAA? Probably give you a better deal if you group your house insurance with them too. Could be outdated info, but they were good to me.

    then very big allowances made for fraudulent accounting such as the Canadian real estate scam.

    Canadian ‘funny money’ is not a bug, it’s a feature. You are witnessing the mechanisms that protect us from being turned into a Mexico by the US.

    Do not confuse the serfs and plebs of Canada, imported or domestic, with those that actually RUN Canada, operate its businesses and produce its few decent products/fields.

    It’s not lost on Canadians that wealthy foreigners are willing to pay these ridiculous prices. It must mean it’s worth it because they love coming here. It’s why a shitty 300k home 15 years ago has surpassed the 1-million-dollar mark. Someone is paying for it which makes Canada happy, the banks happy, and the seller happy. I thought covid-19 was gonna crash the market. I literally pissed myself for no reason because the market didn’t even budge.

    If you made it this far and being a thread about China I’ll add my anecdotal experience in 2007, 2015 which gives me pause on this China-cock-suck-fest everyone has, I guess it pays to see things first hand:

    So to sum it up my primary experience is in Shanghai as I’ve been there multiple times over the course of a decade. Beijing only once. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou a handful of times for business, usually landing in Shanghai first anyway. A short stint through Shandong province. From the days of backpacking after high school (2006-7) to the regular business trips that have extended from 2011+. I can say Shanghai people are different from other Hans. Same with those that hail from Shandong province, who seem to be the REAL Chinese (legit niggas that project competence and confidence I rarely see in Asians).

    If you want to know how China operates just apply for a tourist visa and watch the shit they make you do and their impressive fetish with tiny little red ink stamps. A sampler of the nightmare complexity they like to add to the smallest irrelevant detail (yet missing entire points).

    In the summer of 2015 I was in Pudong and in need of a wicked piss. Being civilized I opted to look for a bathroom so I walked into one of those fancy buildings near the river within viewing distance of Pudong tower (aptly called “Office building” on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/GiMupzEiNmjz89ns6 ). I was expecting it to be like any normal downtown financial building. Go in, use the public bathroom, walk out….

    It was surreal, it was in the afternoon during working hours. I walk in and the lobby was dead empty. A layer of dust huddled in corners in the main lobby with the lights off. These weren’t cheap buildings, they had nice marble interiors, glass table for the non-existent security, in the heart of expensive real estate Pudong. No furniture though. Clearly money and effort went into erecting these buildings. The building wasn’t vacant. There were three suited gentlemen who individually at different times walked into or out of the elevators unphased by a round-eye holding his crotch standing like a retard in the middle of an empty lobby.

    I hesitantly continue forward until I find the bathroom only to discover the lights were off there as well. The water was shut off and it had a smell that didn’t befit the value of the marble and decor invested in the place. As if there was no building management to hire someone to maintain any of this shit. Typical. Build great things and forget the minor details to basically fall flat on your impact.

    Went to the adjacent building and it had similar conditions. After the third building I realized I would have to risk my anal virginity and pee in the darkness. I thought it was measures used to dissuade hobos sleeping in the bathroom but it’s China, uniformed soldiers regularly patrol and are diligent. I know this because I sat on the stairs of a Lawsons in Pudong trying to read a map and 2 minutes later was nudged by a uniformed soldier to move along (with a smile, no violence, no English either). No loitering I guess.

    I visited some spots in Shanghai in 2007 that were just finishing construction on rows of residential apartments. In 2015 visiting that same spot the vast majority of the buildings were still empty. Expats tell me that 5-6 people will roommate up and rent a single apartment. I don’t know if the Chinese government is unable to control rent rates or if people are really cheap or if its just better for a building to be vacant or if its a facade or this “construction industrial complex” or what.

    If I can find the 4×6 photo (yea I was taking pictures with a disposable Kodak camera at the time because it was 2007) I can upload it and the new one I took in 2015 with my phone to show how the buildings remain empty 8 years after construction. This isn’t some nothing empty neighbourhood either as a Carrefour at the intersection was always busy with shoppers.

    Just like Canadian funny money, Chinese have their own methods of maintaining facades.

    • Thanks: utu
    • Replies: @Wyatt
    @Max Payne


    That’s Canadian dollars btw, not rupees or rubels or whatever fake currency people are using.
     
    That's funny. I usually chuck leaf-bucks into the Monopoly money pile. If your money isn't backed by oil and arab blood, it ain't worth shit.
  152. @kirksig
    @utu


    The motive is not selfishness driven by immediate fear but by understanding that suppressing of epidemic is a communal concerted effort that require participation by everybody. Selfish people do not get masks.
     
    But there is obviously an ultimate selfish motive that people should recognize: by engaging in the communal effort of wearing masks to suppress the epidemic, the likelihood of any given individual contracting the virus goes down. So you should be able to appeal to people's selfish motives to get them to wear masks, especially since the cost and effort of wearing a mask is so low.

    So even a libertarian who is concerned with his ass only should argue for everybody wearing masks.
     
    Exactly. The logic is obviously very simple. There is a respiratory virus circulating in the population, and barriers to respiration such as masks slow the spread, lowering the likelihood of any particular individual from contracting the virus from someone else. So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.

    Replies: @utu

    “So a selfish libertarian would want mask wearing to protect himself from the virus.” – There is something in their constitution that prevents them from making this step. While one may argue that there are sets of circumstances where individual actions produce best outcomes:

    It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. – Adam Smith

    Libertarians being mono-ideological in their indoctrination phase have never been exposed to cases where individual uncoordinated actions do not lead to an optimal solution or even can lead to the worst possible solution. Most libertarians, except for some guys in Silicon Valley do not have shit. They are not even butchers, brewers, or bakers. Most of them are working stiffs or unemployed who are angry with government. The ideology of libertarianism has no tangible advantage for them. They were indoctrinated into it to prevent them from actions requiring a concerted effort. They are the shield that protects the oligarchy. They are responsible for making life worse for everybody including themselves. Only the oligarchy benefits.

  153. @Znzn
    As for Taiwan, admittedly, it was a decent mirror image of what China would be if the KMT won, the poz movement in Taiwan was basically the fringe of the fringe of the fringe as recently as 10 or 15 years ago.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    I am not so sure if China would be like Taiwan if KMT won. China at that time(late Qing and early post Qing) was a dying civilization, mired in poverty and dysfunctional. It’s a difficult country to govern throughout its entire history. So much of civil wars, divisions into many states and warlodisms, national(and even civilizational) collapse and rebirth. I am unsure if KMT and democracy could have held a country together. Democracy has a tendency to cause even more chaos in a huge country mired in poverty and all kinds of calamities. This is not a mark of approval of Communist China or Mao on my part. They and Mao committed their brand of atrocities. Not to justify atrocities but which regimes in Chinese history never committed atrocities and wars to attain national reunification? Like it or not, the CPC managed to hold the country together. I think the Chinese people had had enough of suffering, unrest and national instability during the death throes of the last dynasty and at the peak of European power in the 19th century and later the instabilities of republican China.
    In the end, most Chinese people just want peace, stability, prosperity – past Tang capital Chang an means everlasting peace. Words like Tai Ping(great peace), ping an(peace) resonates well with Chinese psyche. Hope I translated properly, as I don’t speak Mandarin. They are pragmatic in thinking, even Idealism should be subsumed by this pragmatism. That’s why despite its many many faults, the current CPC Govt in China is supported(but maybe secretly criticized for their faults) by the Chinese population.

  154. @mal
    If it could, why doesn't it?

    There's no such thing as "capital", not at zero to negative interest rates. Interest rate is the price of capital and at those rates price of capital is zero. Capital is worthless. Only credit matters. Which is why all your counting of factories and Teslas and other worthless commodities is so cute and quaint. :)

    Remember when the world took a vacation for a few weeks back in March-April and oil price went to like negative $37? Yeah, its kinda like that.

    Chinese are using credit to support consumption just like everybody else. They just do it through Keynesian make work corporate projects. I prefer basic income schemes but Chinese way works too, its just less efficient. And if it accomplishes some other non monetary national goal, more power to them.

    Anyway, there is no more "productive" way to use "capital". The objective of the economy, any economy, is to produce scarce resources. Currently, the most scarce resource is the consumer. Nobody cares about garbage like commodities and capital and "muh productivity".

    We use credit to create consumer. It is the most productive use of resources we can currently envision. Welcome to the future.

    Replies: @128, @AaronB, @Levtraro

    In an age of automation, most of the economy is in some sense make believe.

    Using credit to create the consumer is a necessary measure when machines do most of our work. This is to be celebrated, not deplored.

    Just, most people have not caught up to where we actually are, and are fighting the last war. There is always a lag time. Its amusing to see this intense discussion revolve around factories.

    • Agree: mal
  155. @Sinotibetan
    @Dmitry

    Yes, internet is useful to discuss about negative national issues that may be (intentionally) avoided by TV or mainstream media.
    However, it has a lot of negative drawbacks.
    1. Probably more misinformation and half truths in the internet than 'truth' especially when it comes to controversial and political topics.
    2. You probably have too much faith in human intelligence to discern the truth from the cacophony of lies, distortions, misinformation etc etc flooding the internet. I generally think the majority of humans are not that smart and even more easily manipulated via internet than traditional media.
    3. 'deglamorization' itself is the NEW GLAMOR!
    4. Internet is not totally 'free' nor 'unbiased' nor 'fair' ... I guess Anatoly Karlin can attest to this. Western Elites, through Western owned or inclined companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter etc have policies that somehow will reduce the influence of narratives that may counter what these elites really want. Internet had been and is still the vehicle used by these Western elites to manipulate the psyche of populations to clamor for regime change in Governments viewed as detriment to Western interests and monopoly on power.

    Internet is a double - edged sword. It's not free from manipulation and control by elites(predominantly from the West) and even dangerous individuals who can destroy countries.

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry

    I’m not saying public who use the internet, are accessing more reliable information than they did from television before. For many people, they are probably more misinformed now, than ever before the internet was invented.

    My point is just that the changeover of people from receiving access to “national life” from television, to the internet, is the main reason for the demoralization and deglamorization in how they view their country.

    But I think there was something unhealthy with the beautification of the national realities, provided by television. For example, even if you will watch the news to see a report about a tragedy, you are invariably distracted by the fact it is presented by a beautiful woman, with a clear voice and perfect intonation

    Generally, the television is supporting the powers, and gives the impression regardless of reality: “don’t worry, everything is in control, things are improving, trust us”.

    Naturally, people don’t know much beyond what is happening in their area of the city where they live. People’s sense of large topics, like “national decline”, relates not only to their personal experience, but also the mode and type of media they consume.

    If I can provide example of a New York television report of 1990.

    Objectively, New York was far more criminal and dangerous in 1990, than it is today. But in the example of 1990 television, there is such a happy, charming and poetic man, to present this negative information for us. (Rather than charmless doom we would read on the internet today).

    So even in the 1990 America television report about very negative topics, there is a charming presenter, and his sense of positivity and optimism affects how you receive the topic. For the presenter, the crime of New York seems picturesque and almost literary, and his charisma brings the viewer into this perspective.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Dmitry

    Point taken with thanks. Agree.

  156. @Dmitry
    @Sinotibetan

    I'm not saying public who use the internet, are accessing more reliable information than they did from television before. For many people, they are probably more misinformed now, than ever before the internet was invented.

    My point is just that the changeover of people from receiving access to "national life" from television, to the internet, is the main reason for the demoralization and deglamorization in how they view their country.

    But I think there was something unhealthy with the beautification of the national realities, provided by television. For example, even if you will watch the news to see a report about a tragedy, you are invariably distracted by the fact it is presented by a beautiful woman, with a clear voice and perfect intonation

    Generally, the television is supporting the powers, and gives the impression regardless of reality: "don't worry, everything is in control, things are improving, trust us".

    -

    Naturally, people don't know much beyond what is happening in their area of the city where they live. People's sense of large topics, like "national decline", relates not only to their personal experience, but also the mode and type of media they consume.

    If I can provide example of a New York television report of 1990.

    Objectively, New York was far more criminal and dangerous in 1990, than it is today. But in the example of 1990 television, there is such a happy, charming and poetic man, to present this negative information for us. (Rather than charmless doom we would read on the internet today).

    So even in the 1990 America television report about very negative topics, there is a charming presenter, and his sense of positivity and optimism affects how you receive the topic. For the presenter, the crime of New York seems picturesque and almost literary, and his charisma brings the viewer into this perspective.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LFxrPhNGAk

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    Point taken with thanks. Agree.

  157. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @Pericles
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Any side bets on how long Taiwan will remain apart from the mainland?

    Replies: @utu, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Astuteobservor II

    There is fatalism in Taiwan about reunification. The younger generation does not want to fight for independence. So it will happen in the long term.

  158. china-russia-all-the-way says:

    There isn’t discussion about one of the main elements to making the right prediction. Will the yuan appreciate against the dollar over the next 30 years? This is an element that has tripped up other predictions.

    At the end of 2011, the Economist actually predicted Chinese nominal GDP would exceed US GDP in 2018. Here is their math:

    Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021.

    The Economist would have been on target within 1-2 trillion dollars, but the yuan did not appreciate as expected against the dollar in the 2010s. The yuan was about 6.3 at the end of 2011 and is 6.6 today.

    What will happen in the next 30 years? The Economist’s finance team has a recent take that it is not clear if the yuan is being suppressed or if it is being suppressed it is only a temporary measure.

    China also has many tools for influencing the exchange rate beyond direct intervention. On October 12th the central bank made it cheaper to short the yuan in forward trades, a signal that it wanted to limit appreciation. Then on October 23rd a currency regulator said that a “smart market” would always consider upside and downside risks, a reminder that China wants the yuan to be volatile but within a fairly tight range. “Chinese officials have perfected the game of telling American officials that they are not intervening while persuading market participants that they will intervene if necessary,” says Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, who also advises Joe Biden’s team.

    If China is intervening, the most charitable defence is that it views its big lead in gdp growth as transient. A big jump in the yuan when other countries are hobbled would set it up for a potentially destabilising fall when they recover. Leaning against appreciation helps prevent that. But if China’s outperformance endures without being reflected in the yuan, charitable feelings will quickly evaporate.

    For my own prediction of Chinese GDP at 175% of US GDP in 2040, I am conservatively counting by then on only a 10% currency appreciation bump from the exchange rate in 2019 (6.9 to 6.2 yuan to the dollar)

    For reference, the South Korean won has actually depreciated a lot since 1990.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @blatnoi
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    This is an important point, and why I feel the bet would have been more 'fair' if it was PPP GDP of 3x vs. the US instead of 2x nominal. The PPP conversion factor should also decrease in the future from it's current high level as China develops more. It makes for an interesting factor.

    About ten years ago the yen appreciated to 80 yen against the dollar and the Japanese government thought it was a disaster and embarked on a program to knock it down to 120. They succeeded, but now have a real hard time to keep it below 110, and even 105 now. It's not as if Japan suddenly became 3x weaker in the span of a year, after the yen fell to 120 to the dollar and it's GDP 'collapsed'. To many Japanese who never leave the country this was not really noticeable, but maybe the price of instant noodles from Korea went up by 10 yen. Inflation failed to take hold overall and Hyundai cars are still the cheapest for some reason. The US is okay with this type of currency manipulation from Japan and Korea, because they are geopolitical allies. This will not be the case for China, so it will not be as easy for them to devaluate to make exports more attractive, and there will be bitter negotiations/sanctions over devaluations and money printing from both sides.

    , @showmethereal
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Correct about currency exchanges.... And that's why most economists like to use PPP to measure an economy now - as it is more realistic. In that sense China already passed the US in 2014... By 2050 it can indeed be twice the size of the US and possibly more... Of course none of us knows what 30 years will bring.

  159. @Blinky Bill
    @utu

    Daniel is from the West, but he has a Chinese heart.


    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1263804112732254208?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1259733990610632705?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1294262123929903105?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DanielDumbrill/status/1290465030039904256?s=20


    https://youtu.be/wMUA3GeScUI

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @showmethereal

    Hong Kong, Thailand, Portland.

    One struggle (of people with bizarre physiognomy)

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Kent Nationalist


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV8C4qsUwAA-vcO.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRMM_Tq5clvmN6KSIO8RI8f29Vs5j6A9b4Hew&usqp.jpg

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03061/Joshua-Wong_3061756b.jpg

    https://hongkongfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/chrome_2017-05-02_16-00-24.jpg

    https://i.redd.it/q9lx80mq5z351.jpg

    Mother Nature Protests!

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  160. I’ve noticed that when people talk about perceived Russian, German or Chinese war crimes/massacres, they beat around the bush about it. They say oh that was the “Nazis, Communists, Maoists”, etc. Few ever say “the Germans did that”, or “the Russians did that”, it’s always the “Nazis” or the “Soviets”, etc.

    Whereas if they’re talking about perceived British war crimes/massacres, they usually just say “That was the British/English”.

    In fact even when talking about Japanese war crimes most refer to it as “Imperial Japan” and usually keep referencing the Emperor in an attempt to put distance between Japan’s war crimes and the average Japanese person.

    In the case of Russia, Germany and China, this is done to remove culpability from the average person in those countries, whereas no such consideration is made for Britain, the implication is usually that all British/English people are equally culpable for perceived crimes committed by the British Empire, from the working classes to the aristocracy. There’s no beating around the bush about who was responsible. I find the mentality difference there quite interesting.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Europe Europa

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don't think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Eugene Norman, @reiner Tor

    , @reiner Tor
    @Europe Europa

    German war crimes are often called... German. Soviet war crimes are also often called Russian, especially in countries which were under Soviet occupation. Regarding the Chinese, those crimes were committed against their own population, so calling them Chinese crimes wouldn’t be very informative. (This latter is true of Soviet crimes within the USSR.)

    Also, Britain has basically the same form of government as it had during the Empire. It is called the same thing. Even the ideology is nominally unchanged. (Though it did change...) So you cannot really call it anything else. What would be your proposal instead of British, even to avoid the repetition of a word?

  161. @Europe Europa
    I've noticed that when people talk about perceived Russian, German or Chinese war crimes/massacres, they beat around the bush about it. They say oh that was the "Nazis, Communists, Maoists", etc. Few ever say "the Germans did that", or "the Russians did that", it's always the "Nazis" or the "Soviets", etc.

    Whereas if they're talking about perceived British war crimes/massacres, they usually just say "That was the British/English".

    In fact even when talking about Japanese war crimes most refer to it as "Imperial Japan" and usually keep referencing the Emperor in an attempt to put distance between Japan's war crimes and the average Japanese person.

    In the case of Russia, Germany and China, this is done to remove culpability from the average person in those countries, whereas no such consideration is made for Britain, the implication is usually that all British/English people are equally culpable for perceived crimes committed by the British Empire, from the working classes to the aristocracy. There's no beating around the bush about who was responsible. I find the mentality difference there quite interesting.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @reiner Tor

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don’t think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    Moreover, Chinese, British, Germans, Dutch, French, Japanese, Russians (list not exhaustive) committed atrocities at different phases of their history. Politics =shades of Grey, some lighter, some darker.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    , @Eugene Norman
    @Sinotibetan

    Simply because the British have the same ideology and political structures then as now. Or at least a continuation of them. What would you use to use the equivalent of Communist, or Maoist? Victorian maybe. I’ve seen British presenters do that “The Victorians massacred hundreds of thousands of Indians... it was in keeping with Victorian attitudes on race” etc.

    However the problem there is that these attitudes outdated the Victorians.

    , @reiner Tor
    @Sinotibetan

    Of course the Japanese didn’t escape. But the Germans didn’t escape it either.

  162. @Sinotibetan
    @Europe Europa

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don't think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Eugene Norman, @reiner Tor

    Moreover, Chinese, British, Germans, Dutch, French, Japanese, Russians (list not exhaustive) committed atrocities at different phases of their history. Politics =shades of Grey, some lighter, some darker.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @Sinotibetan

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for "the Nazis", but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Kent Nationalist

  163. @Kent Nationalist
    @Blinky Bill

    Hong Kong, Thailand, Portland.

    One struggle (of people with bizarre physiognomy)

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    Mother Nature Protests!

    • LOL: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Blinky Bill

    That’s just Wong.

  164. @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    Moreover, Chinese, British, Germans, Dutch, French, Japanese, Russians (list not exhaustive) committed atrocities at different phases of their history. Politics =shades of Grey, some lighter, some darker.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for “the Nazis“, but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

    • Replies: @Shortsword
    @Europe Europa

    Delusional.

    , @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @Europe Europa

    Usually they try and equate the crimes of the British Empire with the crimes of Nazi Germany. However you are not correct in saying the Empire doesn't have its defenders. There are many in the mainstream like Niall Ferguson.

    It remains to be seen whether or not the British Empire will be seen with the same revulsion as Nazi Germany in the near future, there certainly is an interest lobby which wants this to happen, but for the time being this is not the case.

    , @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

    Replies: @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

  165. @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    In fact, Western soft power is Supreme at the moment, and it's one of the reasons why I don't think China will replace the USA as superpower by 2050. In fact, USA is using soft power to bring regime change in potential rivals and so far they will be relentless with it. And if China is not careful, succeed in it.
    To be frank, I am no fan of CPC nor Xi. And I do recognize many faults with the current Chinese Government. However, I am against the Progressive elites now in power in the West and their progressive ideals even more. To me, it's more of a clash of ideals and I cannot support the current one in vogue in the West. It is my view /conviction that these mad progressive ideals will ultimately drive the West to civilizational suicide and ethnocultural obliteration. It's just not obvious or deemed too ridiculous for many Pro West supporters.
    Rather, it is USA waning in power and prestige in future by concerted efforts of rival powers (not necessarily China) and mostly because of the inability of their own supporters and citizens to see their civilizational doom entirely due to the policies of their elites - ie hegemonic overreach. Too much self belief in their own ideals almost to the point of arrogance. A strange self belief that America or the West can never have the dismal fate of past Empires. To me, the writing is already on the wall for the West.
    To me, China or Russia or other 'non Western' powers should resist these progressive idealogues creeping into their nations until the West ultimately collapses due to the very same ideals.
    Perhaps I am totally wrong about this. Then hurrah for the West. If I am right, then I am just sorry for the demise of the West (which I used to admire).

    Replies: @blatnoi

    Agree, just don’t comment enough to have the agree button active. This is why I left the US, though to be fair, it was an unconscious series of thoughts that I couldn’t formulate that well at the time, but that turned into the way I think now, that is also reflected in your comment.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
  166. @128
    @Sinotibetan

    How much disinformation is being spread by the blog authors and people on this very website? What would China do to the Chinese version of Unz.com and Ron Unz or the bloggers here? Would he be deplatformed from Baidu, Weibao, and Wechat? Thrown in jail for the next 1000 years?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    I am pretty sure you can get penalised in China for “spreading rumours” online. I am guessing a Chinese version of Unz Review would not last long.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
  167. @china-russia-all-the-way
    There isn't discussion about one of the main elements to making the right prediction. Will the yuan appreciate against the dollar over the next 30 years? This is an element that has tripped up other predictions.

    At the end of 2011, the Economist actually predicted Chinese nominal GDP would exceed US GDP in 2018. Here is their math:

    Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China's real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021.
     
    The Economist would have been on target within 1-2 trillion dollars, but the yuan did not appreciate as expected against the dollar in the 2010s. The yuan was about 6.3 at the end of 2011 and is 6.6 today.

    https://i.imgur.com/ssrU6ZC.png

    What will happen in the next 30 years? The Economist's finance team has a recent take that it is not clear if the yuan is being suppressed or if it is being suppressed it is only a temporary measure.

    China also has many tools for influencing the exchange rate beyond direct intervention. On October 12th the central bank made it cheaper to short the yuan in forward trades, a signal that it wanted to limit appreciation. Then on October 23rd a currency regulator said that a “smart market” would always consider upside and downside risks, a reminder that China wants the yuan to be volatile but within a fairly tight range. “Chinese officials have perfected the game of telling American officials that they are not intervening while persuading market participants that they will intervene if necessary,” says Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, who also advises Joe Biden’s team.

    If China is intervening, the most charitable defence is that it views its big lead in gdp growth as transient. A big jump in the yuan when other countries are hobbled would set it up for a potentially destabilising fall when they recover. Leaning against appreciation helps prevent that. But if China’s outperformance endures without being reflected in the yuan, charitable feelings will quickly evaporate.
     
    For my own prediction of Chinese GDP at 175% of US GDP in 2040, I am conservatively counting by then on only a 10% currency appreciation bump from the exchange rate in 2019 (6.9 to 6.2 yuan to the dollar)

    For reference, the South Korean won has actually depreciated a lot since 1990.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7b/KRW-USD_v2.svg/525px-KRW-USD_v2.svg.png

    Replies: @blatnoi, @showmethereal

    This is an important point, and why I feel the bet would have been more ‘fair’ if it was PPP GDP of 3x vs. the US instead of 2x nominal. The PPP conversion factor should also decrease in the future from it’s current high level as China develops more. It makes for an interesting factor.

    About ten years ago the yen appreciated to 80 yen against the dollar and the Japanese government thought it was a disaster and embarked on a program to knock it down to 120. They succeeded, but now have a real hard time to keep it below 110, and even 105 now. It’s not as if Japan suddenly became 3x weaker in the span of a year, after the yen fell to 120 to the dollar and it’s GDP ‘collapsed’. To many Japanese who never leave the country this was not really noticeable, but maybe the price of instant noodles from Korea went up by 10 yen. Inflation failed to take hold overall and Hyundai cars are still the cheapest for some reason. The US is okay with this type of currency manipulation from Japan and Korea, because they are geopolitical allies. This will not be the case for China, so it will not be as easy for them to devaluate to make exports more attractive, and there will be bitter negotiations/sanctions over devaluations and money printing from both sides.

  168. @Europe Europa
    @Sinotibetan

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for "the Nazis", but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Kent Nationalist

    Delusional.

  169. @Europe Europa
    @Sinotibetan

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for "the Nazis", but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Kent Nationalist

    Usually they try and equate the crimes of the British Empire with the crimes of Nazi Germany. However you are not correct in saying the Empire doesn’t have its defenders. There are many in the mainstream like Niall Ferguson.

    It remains to be seen whether or not the British Empire will be seen with the same revulsion as Nazi Germany in the near future, there certainly is an interest lobby which wants this to happen, but for the time being this is not the case.

  170. @Europe Europa
    @Sinotibetan

    I find that British history is increasingly more vilified than even that of Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia. At least Hitler and Stalin have their supporters, I seldom see anyone speaking up for British history.

    In history documentaries the most derisive tone used to be reserved for "the Nazis", but now it often seems the British Empire has overtaken the Nazis on this. Often I notice that the narrators will have more of a hint of sympathy for Hitler or Stalin than for anyone to do with Britain.

    Replies: @Shortsword, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Kent Nationalist

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

    • Replies: @The Spirit of Enoch Powell
    @Kent Nationalist


    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).
     
    Indeed, although predictably, it's the Labour and Remainer cucks who dislike the Empire

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-03-11/Empires%20chart%201-01.png


    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-03-11/Empires%20chart%202-01.png

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-03-11/Empires%20chart%203-01.png

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2020-03-11/British%20Empire%20attitudes%20by%20vote-01.png

  171. @Wency
    @Lot

    China isn't exactly punching its weight in cultural exports yet, and I don't know that it ever will. Countries like the US, UK, Japan, and maybe now Korea are the outliers there. But China still does OK. You bring up sushi, when Chinese food is incredibly popular. Hong Kong cinema is/was a pretty big deal, punching far above its weight, and it has poached its share of mainland talent over the years to enable its success. Bruce Lee's father was a mainland migrant to Hong Kong (though Bruce was sort of an anchor baby in San Francisco).

    I actually look to Germany as the country that punches most below its weight when it comes to lack of cultural exports, at least post-WW2. Little in the way of film, music, video games, food. Much smaller Sweden is far more relevant in film. I think the only relevant German game developer is Crytek, which was founded by Turkish immigrants. Germany is far less relevant in gaming than not only France and England, but also Poland, Czechia, and, of course, China, which had a surprise hit this year with Genshin Impact.

    Replies: @Mitleser, @Dmitry, @Kent Nationalist, @Rahan

    Before the Western culture went into living death mode, and still had some vigor, and thus pop and rock music evolved continuously, Germany was a world center for heavy metal. For about two decades (say 1980 – 2000) German heavy metal was more than equal to the US/UK strains. Oldfags remember this curious phenomenon.

    But that’s it. I also assembled a collection of modern Euro films back in 2019, to keep up. The French and Italian flics were as blandly good as always, but the German films were astoundingly boring. I think that post-WWII the “strong gods” were banned there all all levels in terms of spiritual experience, out of fear that strong emotions lead to Hitler returning.
    https://counter-currents.com/2020/01/r-r-renos-return-of-the-strong-gods/
    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/10/21/return-of-the-strong-gods/
    https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2019/11/return-of-the-strong-gods-rr-reno-dwight-longenecker.html

    And only in the metal music underground was there a mostly uncontrolled space where the surviving vigor could leak into.

    But then by the late 1990s pop culture stopped evolving everywhere, not just Germany, and then devolving. Maybe we’re about to see some revival, if the Great Reset does not go by plan.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
    @Rahan

    Not convinced. Offhand I can think of downfall, The Lives of Others, Das Boot and the excellent Dark and Deutschland 83. The latter two are on Netflix and Amazon right now.

    I don’t search out subtitled movies or TV shows but these were recommended.

  172. @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

    Replies: @The Spirit of Enoch Powell

    This is ridiculous. Most British people will be openly supportive of the British Empire, completely different to Germans and Nazi Germany. The British Empire has plenty of open foreign defenders and admirers. I could do with less of the Churchill-worship, but it does exist and is widespread in Britain (and America).

    Indeed, although predictably, it’s the Labour and Remainer cucks who dislike the Empire

    [MORE]


  173. @Anon
    @Lot


    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.
     
    This doesn't make sense to me. TTT correlates with IQ, IQ is valid in all races, but TTT somehow correlates with IQ at a different ... frequency or granularity in the different races? When X strongly correlates with Y, it's mostly the case that either X is Y or both are mediated or caused by the same thing.

    Google Scholar has only three hits for "test taking temperament, so it's not something that has been rigorously studied.

    At any rate "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests" is Myth 22 in Russsell Warne's new book, In the Know: Debunking 35 Myths about Human Intelligence. He points out that IQ, as measured by written tests, correlates positively and negatively with dozens of outcomes completely external to the test, so the idea that it is some kind of intratest fiction is unsupportable.

    Warne does allow that "test strategy" is a minor factor (when to guess, how much time to spend on questions, and so on). But that is something that can be figured out from the application booklet or can be taught in half an hour, and whether you have figured out these test strategies is itself a measure of intelligence.

    Replies: @Lot

    “IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests”

    I am not saying that, so you don’t need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That’s why this isn’t a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you’re going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @A123
    @Lot


    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.
     
    There are good IQ evaluations that eliminate this bias, however they are not mass market fill in the dot standardized tests. It takes 1-on-1 contact.

    I have a free standing memory from when I was about 6 years old from such an evaluation. The session was, "What is wrong with this picture?"

    One of the cards was an umbrella and my response was, "There is nothing inside holding it open." I did not have the terminology at the time but the stretchers, runner, and locking mechanism were all missing. The person administering the test looked at me, turned around the card looked at it, looked at me again, and then began scribbling free hand notes on my file.

    I must have scored well, because I was admitted to the gifted/advanced track at my Elementary School.

    PEACE 😇

    https://i2.wp.com/www.theunstitchd.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/canopy.jpg
    , @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    , @Sinotibetan
    @Lot

    Very interesting. As a person of Chinese descent, I have often wondered why Europeans /people of European descent were/are more innovative(than Asians, even other non European ethnic groups) , especially in mathematics, the basic sciences and technological inventions. I don't think the majority of whites are innovative, but those who do really excell. A civilization just needs a significant minority of excellent innovators to have the edge over others. Why is it that a civilization much older than Western countries stagnated in science, maths and technology for millennia.
    I think there are certain traits needed to be innovative....apart from excellent memory:intuitive and deductive abilities, a healthy dose of curiosity, idealistic personality, adventurous and daring spirit(to think of new ideas) and wanting to be original, unique and different. Never mind if the idea may not seem to have 'practical value' initially.
    This spirit of innovation is what I admire in whites /Europeans sorely lacking in my country, and perhaps that could be extrapolated to China (or Korea or Japan) as well. I had friends who had 'photographic memory'(the Chinese are good at this, a friend who spoke and wrote broken English could write, from memory, whole paragraphs or oven chapters from a book on human anatomy) and always scored top marks in exams - they know the 'game of exams'. They can do a job or take a course, not because they have any liking for the job or subject, but just because they can have higher incomes. They are pragmatic people - knowledge or any idea is just a means to get rich or attain higher status in society. If a certain knowledge or idea is deemed to have no (known) practical value, none would be interested. And Asian parents also instill in their children such attitude. At least, that's how I remembered my childhood - how my parents tried to 'break' my idealistic streak since I liked to think of new ideas in chemistry or maths, or tried to compose baroque style music etc.. They ultimately partially succeeded in killing off all the Idealism . I think there is something cultural to this conformist trait.
    Another reason why I think China will not be a superpower or significant innovator nation - unless there is a change in this type of mentality that I mentioned.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @dogbumbreath

    , @EldnahYm
    @Lot

    Now explain why northeast Asians have higher cranial capacity than whites.

    You would make more sense if you simply argued that whites outperform northeast Asians on "inventing things" and "conquering other continents" because of non-intelligence personality factors. But instead, you must argue that test scores are the result of non-intelligence personality factors and that whites are actually smarter than northeast Asians. Dumb.

    , @rensselaer
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.
     
    Much of the continental territorial conquests, particularly in North America and Australasia, were against very low population hunter-gatherers that were extremely vulnerable to disease. The Romans couldn't counquer the Parthians and were restricted to the Mediterranean due to Chinese technology:

    https://twitter.com/Peter_Nimitz/status/1093391663253250048

    Whether or not the things you mention above are "practical tests of intelligence" is really a matter of perspective. For example, European imperialism enriched a small minority of whites at the time in the short term, but the costs have been tremendous and extend to the present in the multicultural, multiracial quagmire. You could say that isolationism and turning inward might have been the more "intelligent" long term strategy. This also goes for totalitarian communism and high per capita GDP. It's evident by now that pursuing liberalism and high economic growth and consumption have their own long term costs, and depending on one's perspective, is more damaging and worse and thus less "intelligent" than communism and lower economic growth.
  174. @last straw
    @AlexanderGrozny


    Chinese food is ancient and has been around for millennia. It isnt something that can be exported like Japanese popular culture. And also Chinese cars are all rip offs, pale copies of actual innovation. All the top chinese brands in the auto industry like the ones you mentioned are clones of Japanese and European cars.
     
    I see you don't know much about the auto industry. None of the EV manufacturers I mentioned produce rip-offs. That's why Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are doing quite well on the U.S. stock markets, and Buffet and his Berkshire Hathaway never attempted to sell their shares in BYD.

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    • Replies: @last straw
    @AlexanderGrozny


    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.
     
    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That's the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the future auto industry when conventional vehicle with internal combustion engines are phased out, China also have some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD.

    Nio's ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet's Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized internationally.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/
    , @last straw
    @AlexanderGrozny


    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.
     
    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That's the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the auto industry, they know that conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines will be phased out in the next 20-30 years, that's when these Chinese EV makers will be truly well known internationally. China also has some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD. Again, only industry insiders know the names such as CATL for now.

    Nio's ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet's Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized on the world stage somewhat.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/
  175. Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I’ve already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.

    There’s no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It’s true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn’t follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India’s decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn’t the only place to scoop up talent.

    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.

    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn’t just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden’s transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they’d be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.

    A few words about Taiwan. It’s income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China’s current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That’s why Taiwan isn’t a suitable aim for China. You can’t get away with their policies unless you’re a tiny gnat – while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.

    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn’t on the table here. It’s about what it says about China’s domestic economy.

    Some China ‘bulls’ claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That’s confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China’s leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China’s economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn’t because Wen was lying or was insincere. It’s simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn’t they succeed doing so in the future?

    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It’s not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their “barely above Mexico” current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

    • Replies: @128
    @Thulean Friend

    Well, the counterargument is that they are a semi-command economy, they do not have to recognize losses or write down bad investments if they do not want to, so they can put off writing down their GDP or their capital stock indefinitely, unlike market economies.

    , @128
    @Thulean Friend

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies. And as for the US per capita GDP growth, it actually picked up from around 1% during the Obama years to more than 1.5% during the Trump years, with a couple of years of 3% GDP growth due to the Trump tax cuts, if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman, @Thulean Friend

    , @mal
    @Thulean Friend


    If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they’d be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.

     

    Virgin 160 IQ Chinese engineer vs Chad 80 IQ Woke Transgender African-American Lesbian Corporate Human Resources Lady. This will be a fun job interview to watch. :)

    More seriously though, you are right. Chinese smarts will come. And then they will transfer all those advanced technology back home to their friends and relatives. It may take IQ 160 in US to develop tech breakthrough, but IQ 120 back in China will be sufficient to successfully deploy it in production.

    You are quite correct in what you say, but your worldview is a bit incomplete. Цап царап (Russian for sneaky grab) will be a big thing in the future.

    , @songbird
    @Thulean Friend


    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow.
     
    What you are saying is that you think it would be a strategic advantage for the US over China, if in the future, it had more Barack Obamas and Kamala Harrises. And they were probably the children of moderately intelligent people. The standards have fallen, in the decades since then.

    The US is a blank-slatist regime, with arguably the biggest education bubble in the world. Giving visas for people who obtain degrees, from degree mills, is just a way of laundering their stupidity, and low human capital, and of propping up this credentialist bubble, to make the middle class poorer and less fertile.
    , @showmethereal
    @Thulean Friend

    I agree and disagree with various points - but I have one question regarding migration. You noted that Israeli brains still migrate to the west. Well why do you think that is the case vs South Korean and Japanese brains who stay home??? (Taiwan engineers used to go to the west too but now the only place they migrate too much now is Mainland China)

    , @Adûnâi
    @Thulean Friend

    > "Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument."

    Be it thanks to cadres or Socialist friendship, but the DPR Korea is an incredibly advanced society, while also being substantially impoverished. As Andrei Lankov comments, North Korea has a lot of features of a first/second-world country - a high level of medical care and education, relatively high life expectancy (65.96 years male, 73.86 years female), a relatively low fertility rate (1.98 children/woman). Democratic Korea is a post-apocalyptic country successfully enduring a 30-year-long siege while also having acquired nuclear weapons (with the population of 25 mil., and without benefiting from a parasitic lobby in a Grand Power). The only comparable cases may be found in Eastern Europe, but those are coupled with chronic emigration, braindrain, LGBT propagation, high suicide rates and a loss of sovereignty. By any metric, Juche Korea must be considered an imagination-defying success story.

    Replies: @HeebHunter

  176. @Sinotibetan
    @Europe Europa

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don't think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Eugene Norman, @reiner Tor

    Simply because the British have the same ideology and political structures then as now. Or at least a continuation of them. What would you use to use the equivalent of Communist, or Maoist? Victorian maybe. I’ve seen British presenters do that “The Victorians massacred hundreds of thousands of Indians… it was in keeping with Victorian attitudes on race” etc.

    However the problem there is that these attitudes outdated the Victorians.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
  177. Global-Economic-centre-of-gravity

    Centre of Extreme poverty

  178. @Thulean Friend
    Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I've already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.
    -
    There's no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It's true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn't follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India's decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn't the only place to scoop up talent.
    -
    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.
    -
    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn't just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden's transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they'd be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.
    -
    A few words about Taiwan. It's income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China's current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That's why Taiwan isn't a suitable aim for China. You can't get away with their policies unless you're a tiny gnat - while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.
    -
    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn't on the table here. It's about what it says about China's domestic economy.

    Some China 'bulls' claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That's confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    https://i.imgur.com/YWSJK6K.png

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China's leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China's economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn't because Wen was lying or was insincere. It's simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn't they succeed doing so in the future?
    -
    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It's not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their "barely above Mexico" current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

    Replies: @128, @128, @mal, @songbird, @showmethereal, @Adûnâi

    Well, the counterargument is that they are a semi-command economy, they do not have to recognize losses or write down bad investments if they do not want to, so they can put off writing down their GDP or their capital stock indefinitely, unlike market economies.

    • Agree: mal
  179. @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    There are good IQ evaluations that eliminate this bias, however they are not mass market fill in the dot standardized tests. It takes 1-on-1 contact.

    I have a free standing memory from when I was about 6 years old from such an evaluation. The session was, “What is wrong with this picture?”

    One of the cards was an umbrella and my response was, “There is nothing inside holding it open.” I did not have the terminology at the time but the stretchers, runner, and locking mechanism were all missing. The person administering the test looked at me, turned around the card looked at it, looked at me again, and then began scribbling free hand notes on my file.

    I must have scored well, because I was admitted to the gifted/advanced track at my Elementary School.

    PEACE 😇

    [MORE]

  180. Here is the estimate used by the US National Intelligence Council –

    A long term decline for the US and the EU, decline for China after 2070, a long term rise for India and Africa.

    View post on imgur.com

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @Passer by

    ''''''''''''''''''Intelligence''''''''''''''''''

    , @mal
    @Passer by

    Demographics = consumer = GDP in the long run.

  181. @Thulean Friend
    Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I've already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.
    -
    There's no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It's true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn't follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India's decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn't the only place to scoop up talent.
    -
    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.
    -
    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn't just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden's transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they'd be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.
    -
    A few words about Taiwan. It's income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China's current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That's why Taiwan isn't a suitable aim for China. You can't get away with their policies unless you're a tiny gnat - while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.
    -
    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn't on the table here. It's about what it says about China's domestic economy.

    Some China 'bulls' claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That's confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    https://i.imgur.com/YWSJK6K.png

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China's leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China's economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn't because Wen was lying or was insincere. It's simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn't they succeed doing so in the future?
    -
    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It's not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their "barely above Mexico" current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

    Replies: @128, @128, @mal, @songbird, @showmethereal, @Adûnâi

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies. And as for the US per capita GDP growth, it actually picked up from around 1% during the Obama years to more than 1.5% during the Trump years, with a couple of years of 3% GDP growth due to the Trump tax cuts, if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
    @128



    if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.
     
    If my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle.

    (Well, not so much these days but you get the idea.)
    , @Thulean Friend
    @128


    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies.
     
    This is because Uncle Sam runs the system and is willing to tolerate stratospheric savings rates, often manipulated exchange rates, and outright protectionism to shield domestic businessess.

    The entry ticket price is political submission to US' core geopolitcal interests. No free lunches. China was given the benefit of the doubt early on, but that benefit has been revoked, possibly permanently as long as CCP controls the country.

    If you suppress your domestic demand you need to supplement with an external source. That path is now closed for China. As mentioned in the OP, China still needs the demand of the developed world given their low incomes. Since China cannot rely on this path, it has no other option than to gorge on debt in lieu of what the Taiwanese, Koreans et al did, namely rely on external demand.

    The debt explosion at much lower incomes means rapid zombiefication and the attendant cost of decaying efficiency of capital with massive overinvestment.

    Add to this the domestic challenge I mentioned, the incapability of rebalancing due to various powerful constituencies blocking genuine reform. This isn't doom, but it sufficient to prevent China from being a nodal power á la USA post-1945. They will still converge for 10-15 years at least, but beyond that, it will become a huge challenge.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman

  182. But obviously, I am not including the possibility of the US descending into Syria, Lybia, or Somalia in my assumptions, though China would also lose a sizable customer and world trade would be seriously undermined in the US were to turn into Syria in the next few years or so. It is just in the past few years, any revisions of US economic growth assumptions have tended to be on the upside, rather than on the downside.

  183. @Passer by
    Here is the estimate used by the US National Intelligence Council -

    A long term decline for the US and the EU, decline for China after 2070, a long term rise for India and Africa.

    https://imgur.com/a/qtcLxDM

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @mal

    ”””””””””Intelligence”””””””””

  184. @Rahan
    @Wency

    Before the Western culture went into living death mode, and still had some vigor, and thus pop and rock music evolved continuously, Germany was a world center for heavy metal. For about two decades (say 1980 - 2000) German heavy metal was more than equal to the US/UK strains. Oldfags remember this curious phenomenon.

    But that's it. I also assembled a collection of modern Euro films back in 2019, to keep up. The French and Italian flics were as blandly good as always, but the German films were astoundingly boring. I think that post-WWII the "strong gods" were banned there all all levels in terms of spiritual experience, out of fear that strong emotions lead to Hitler returning.
    https://counter-currents.com/2020/01/r-r-renos-return-of-the-strong-gods/
    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2019/10/21/return-of-the-strong-gods/
    https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2019/11/return-of-the-strong-gods-rr-reno-dwight-longenecker.html


    And only in the metal music underground was there a mostly uncontrolled space where the surviving vigor could leak into.

    But then by the late 1990s pop culture stopped evolving everywhere, not just Germany, and then devolving. Maybe we're about to see some revival, if the Great Reset does not go by plan.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman

    Not convinced. Offhand I can think of downfall, The Lives of Others, Das Boot and the excellent Dark and Deutschland 83. The latter two are on Netflix and Amazon right now.

    I don’t search out subtitled movies or TV shows but these were recommended.

    • Thanks: Rahan
  185. @128
    @Thulean Friend

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies. And as for the US per capita GDP growth, it actually picked up from around 1% during the Obama years to more than 1.5% during the Trump years, with a couple of years of 3% GDP growth due to the Trump tax cuts, if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman, @Thulean Friend

    if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    If my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle.

    (Well, not so much these days but you get the idea.)

  186. @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents

    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states

    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don’t find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird


    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan
     
    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    Replies: @BS, @Daniel Chieh, @songbird

    , @Sinotibetan
    @songbird

    I don't know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians. I have friends who are very smart but they are not innovative, they are not passionate about new ideas. I don't know how to describe it.... There is not enough curiosity, less passionate about 'knowledge for knowledge' sake'?
    I have friends who scored and became top students in mathematics but years later they cannot even handle college algebra!
    When I teach some of my students and tried to instill some passion in the subject matter, they are more interested about what are the stuff they need to 'score' in the exams.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry

    , @JohnPlywood
    @songbird


    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.
     
    You have no idea what you're talking about.


    The Japanese were subdued and are still ruled to this day by the Ainu. All emporers of Japanese history carry the Ainu haplogroup D1:



    https://peaceandjustice.freeforums.net/thread/852/japanese-emperors-dna-haplogroup-d1b1a2



    A plurality of Japanese males today descend from Ainu men and non-Ainu East Asian women, the Ainu populations that never switched over to Japanese also all descend from Japanese women.


    This idea of Ainu as some sort of "conquered" group that has developed over the years, and become especially popular on anonymous message boards, has been totally annihilated by the genetic and archaelogical evidence. It is just another folklorish fabrication of history by simpletons that ignores the glaring and obvious fact that Japan is a layered mixed-race society with an Ainu ruling elite. Any oppression of Ainu in later times was minimal and done by people who were part Ainu themselves.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Sinotibetan

    , @AlexanderGrozny
    @songbird

    The average iq in the UK is not projected to be 85 by 2100. Look up the Flynn effect. The UK average iq will probably be at least 110 by 2100.

    , @Levtraro
    @songbird


    The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100
     
    Assuming this is coming from statistically solid projections, perhaps what matters is not that the average IQ is falling, but that the standard deviation of IQ is rising. Imagine having cheap and stupid labour under a super smart elite, imagine being sure that your elite offspring will lord over others indefinitely because the lower classes don't spawn smart kids, no competition for your progeny. That sounds like a plan.

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny

  187. @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

    Very interesting. As a person of Chinese descent, I have often wondered why Europeans /people of European descent were/are more innovative(than Asians, even other non European ethnic groups) , especially in mathematics, the basic sciences and technological inventions. I don’t think the majority of whites are innovative, but those who do really excell. A civilization just needs a significant minority of excellent innovators to have the edge over others. Why is it that a civilization much older than Western countries stagnated in science, maths and technology for millennia.
    I think there are certain traits needed to be innovative….apart from excellent memory:intuitive and deductive abilities, a healthy dose of curiosity, idealistic personality, adventurous and daring spirit(to think of new ideas) and wanting to be original, unique and different. Never mind if the idea may not seem to have ‘practical value’ initially.
    This spirit of innovation is what I admire in whites /Europeans sorely lacking in my country, and perhaps that could be extrapolated to China (or Korea or Japan) as well. I had friends who had ‘photographic memory'(the Chinese are good at this, a friend who spoke and wrote broken English could write, from memory, whole paragraphs or oven chapters from a book on human anatomy) and always scored top marks in exams – they know the ‘game of exams’. They can do a job or take a course, not because they have any liking for the job or subject, but just because they can have higher incomes. They are pragmatic people – knowledge or any idea is just a means to get rich or attain higher status in society. If a certain knowledge or idea is deemed to have no (known) practical value, none would be interested. And Asian parents also instill in their children such attitude. At least, that’s how I remembered my childhood – how my parents tried to ‘break’ my idealistic streak since I liked to think of new ideas in chemistry or maths, or tried to compose baroque style music etc.. They ultimately partially succeeded in killing off all the Idealism . I think there is something cultural to this conformist trait.
    Another reason why I think China will not be a superpower or significant innovator nation – unless there is a change in this type of mentality that I mentioned.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Sinotibetan

    This is relevant:

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/salon-demographics/

    Replies: @Abelard Lindsey

    , @dogbumbreath
    @Sinotibetan


    Very interesting. As a person of Chinese descent, I have often wondered why Europeans /people of European descent were/are more innovative(than Asians, even other non European ethnic groups)...

     

    Current Chinese and Asians in general DO NOT explore and travel. You will find Japanese and South Koreans off the beaten path but it is rare. Asians visiting Paris, Venice, London or New York is not "travelling". Americans in general are also guilty of NOT exploring or travelling. Visiting the Grand Canyon and Las Vegas do NOT count. If you have travelled the corners of the World, off the beaten path, you will find Western Europeans, Australians and Canadians most often. Miriam Beard says, "Travel is more than the seeing of sights; it is a change that goes on, deep and permanent, in the ideas of living". I believe this is the core of creativity and explains why the Early Europeans were so successful post 1600's.
  188. @Max Payne
    @Zhang Shoucheng


    Safeway
     
    Safeway is the DISCOUNT grocery store of BC. You know, for low-income families and meth heads. Go to West Vancouver, where the millionaires have their nice homes on the hills facing the ocean. The village? What are you some sort of cock vampire? Why not just live in a cardboard box in East Hastings?

    You want to compare wealth? Real easy.

    Roads in puny Ukraine:

    https://voxukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/a5ee17beb264f716bd991305c33261a8-2.jpg

    A road in the middle of nowhere in Canada, the second largest country in the world:

    https://ak.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/5899667/thumb/1.jpg

    In Canada its common for families to own an SUV, a summer car, and a daily driver/beater (ranked 11th in number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants).

    In Ukraine you're lucky to find someone with a functioning Lada (ranked 71st).

    https://i.imgur.com/HrSMq8T.jpg

    Replies: @mal, @Zhang Shoucheng, @Mr. Hack, @GMC, @Ray Caruso

    Why not compare the roads of Colossal Canada with those of Eurasian Russia, instead of with “puny Ukraine”? Outside of Moscow ad St. Pete’s, this is pretty much what the majority of the roads look like. Again, it looks like Little Russia and Big Russia have more in common that either has with Canada:

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • Replies: @mal
    @Mr. Hack

    90% of Canada lives within like 100 miles of US border. Where Russia has at least bad roads Canada has none on the account of nobody living at those latitudes. If you want to go Caribou hunting in Canada you need to take an airplane. In Russia a 4X4 will probably get you where you need to be if the season is right, even far north.

    So I don't think Canada and Russia are directly comparable - Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    Replies: @Rahan

  189. @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan

    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    • Replies: @BS
    @Kent Nationalist

    The Chinese might be the only non-European nation with the distinction of successfully colonizing and subsequently genociding a West European population.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Kent Nationalist

    China obviously knocked out innumerable small nations and tribes to get to its size, but Taiwan is a good example why decentralization is important for expansion. Until there was a random "Ming" warlord trying to make a base outside of China, conquering it was pointless.

    , @songbird
    @Kent Nationalist


    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.
     
    There were probably some political factors at play. I think a lot of people have trouble understanding how big China was, and how difficult it was to rule a country that big, before industrialization. In 1600, China had a population of about 160 million - no railroads, no telegraph. The empire was unwieldy. The emperors were not seeking overseas colonies, possibly since they saw any new conquest might lead to the formation of new centers of power to disrupt their kingdom - new warlords, or pirate fleets.

    By contrast, in 1600, the Dutch Republic had a population of about 1.5 million. That's about 1/106th of the population of China - much easier to rule. So compact that, today, about half of their territory was reclaimed from the sea.

    Nobody disputes that the Age of Exploration was a supreme European accomplishment, but it seems rather silly to count the separate conquests during this era, as thought they were separate ages that proved Europeans are inherently better at conquest, and not that they were supreme during this single era, which expired. The Vikings landed in North America - they did not conquer it - because they were not part of this era.

    The Dutch themselves were defeated or driven off more than once by the Chinese, before they took over Taiwan. They were driven off at Penghu, and defeated by the Ming navy off Liaoluo Bay. So, I'm not sure that one can say that they were militarily superior. And, of course, the Chinese were on Taiwan before the Dutch, who recorded the presence of about 1500, when they arrived.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist

  190. @128
    @Thulean Friend

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies. And as for the US per capita GDP growth, it actually picked up from around 1% during the Obama years to more than 1.5% during the Trump years, with a couple of years of 3% GDP growth due to the Trump tax cuts, if the US can manage raise its long-run growth rate to 3% and China stays at 4% to 5%, then you can put off GDP size convergence indefinitely.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman, @Thulean Friend

    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies.

    This is because Uncle Sam runs the system and is willing to tolerate stratospheric savings rates, often manipulated exchange rates, and outright protectionism to shield domestic businessess.

    The entry ticket price is political submission to US’ core geopolitcal interests. No free lunches. China was given the benefit of the doubt early on, but that benefit has been revoked, possibly permanently as long as CCP controls the country.

    If you suppress your domestic demand you need to supplement with an external source. That path is now closed for China. As mentioned in the OP, China still needs the demand of the developed world given their low incomes. Since China cannot rely on this path, it has no other option than to gorge on debt in lieu of what the Taiwanese, Koreans et al did, namely rely on external demand.

    The debt explosion at much lower incomes means rapid zombiefication and the attendant cost of decaying efficiency of capital with massive overinvestment.

    Add to this the domestic challenge I mentioned, the incapability of rebalancing due to various powerful constituencies blocking genuine reform. This isn’t doom, but it sufficient to prevent China from being a nodal power á la USA post-1945. They will still converge for 10-15 years at least, but beyond that, it will become a huge challenge.

    • Replies: @Eugene Norman
    @Thulean Friend

    Your analysis is dubious. China is still trading with Europe and Asia. It’s just created a new trading block with its neighbours and has created an investment pact with the EU. Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    Average per capita is at $10k, but incomes are bi-modal. There’s a lot of rural poor and a large middle and wealthy class.

    According to CNN (2019).


    A new report from Credit Suisse (CS) shows that wealth in China is ticking up, and the country now accounts for 100 million of the richest 10% of people in the world. There are 99 million Americans in the same category.
     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  191. @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians. I have friends who are very smart but they are not innovative, they are not passionate about new ideas. I don’t know how to describe it…. There is not enough curiosity, less passionate about ‘knowledge for knowledge’ sake’?
    I have friends who scored and became top students in mathematics but years later they cannot even handle college algebra!
    When I teach some of my students and tried to instill some passion in the subject matter, they are more interested about what are the stuff they need to ‘score’ in the exams.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Sinotibetan


    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians.
     
    I think it is possible that Europeans might be a bit dumber on average, but have more geniuses at the high end. But I am agnostic about it. If it is true - we are rapidly losing this advantage due to dysgenics.

    Japanese seem more refined to me, and I wonder why this is so. Maybe, that is the extra few IQ points? Or maybe it is different personality factors? Or maybe, Europeans have been brought down by diversity - that they've been influenced by MENA people to lower standards of behavior? Whatever the explanation is, I think it is something real and observable.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    , @Dmitry
    @Sinotibetan

    Here is very much on the "software" level, rather than relating to "hardware".

    In Renaissance Florence, there was a genius living on every street. However, in 21st century Florence, there is no genius on any street. It's not because of a genetic shift, but a different stage of history and culture. Renaissance Florence was producing geniuses, while modern Florence's population is culturally sterile. Classical Athens had the greatest flourishing of genius in world history, but yet modern Greece is one of the world's least intellectually interesting cultures.

    There's not a genetic explanation for this, although blood can be one of many influences.

    If you look at works of an individual genius, they often exhibit the best qualities of their culture at that particular historical epoch. Genius of Hume - it's of the empirical and skeptical 18th century personality, representative of his Scottish Enlightenment milieu. Genius of Kant - includes adding a German pedantry and thoroughness to the scepticism of earlier thinkers like Hume. They wouldn't be the same writers in a different epoch/culture.


    Asians are a little smarter than European
     
    It depends which Asian nationalities and which European ones.

    Obviously Japan is already at the similar level as the advanced North-West European countries, in terms of the average education and culture level of the population.

    Replies: @128, @Suicidal_canadian, @Miville

  192. @Sinotibetan
    @Lot

    Very interesting. As a person of Chinese descent, I have often wondered why Europeans /people of European descent were/are more innovative(than Asians, even other non European ethnic groups) , especially in mathematics, the basic sciences and technological inventions. I don't think the majority of whites are innovative, but those who do really excell. A civilization just needs a significant minority of excellent innovators to have the edge over others. Why is it that a civilization much older than Western countries stagnated in science, maths and technology for millennia.
    I think there are certain traits needed to be innovative....apart from excellent memory:intuitive and deductive abilities, a healthy dose of curiosity, idealistic personality, adventurous and daring spirit(to think of new ideas) and wanting to be original, unique and different. Never mind if the idea may not seem to have 'practical value' initially.
    This spirit of innovation is what I admire in whites /Europeans sorely lacking in my country, and perhaps that could be extrapolated to China (or Korea or Japan) as well. I had friends who had 'photographic memory'(the Chinese are good at this, a friend who spoke and wrote broken English could write, from memory, whole paragraphs or oven chapters from a book on human anatomy) and always scored top marks in exams - they know the 'game of exams'. They can do a job or take a course, not because they have any liking for the job or subject, but just because they can have higher incomes. They are pragmatic people - knowledge or any idea is just a means to get rich or attain higher status in society. If a certain knowledge or idea is deemed to have no (known) practical value, none would be interested. And Asian parents also instill in their children such attitude. At least, that's how I remembered my childhood - how my parents tried to 'break' my idealistic streak since I liked to think of new ideas in chemistry or maths, or tried to compose baroque style music etc.. They ultimately partially succeeded in killing off all the Idealism . I think there is something cultural to this conformist trait.
    Another reason why I think China will not be a superpower or significant innovator nation - unless there is a change in this type of mentality that I mentioned.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @dogbumbreath

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @Abelard Lindsey
    @Daniel Chieh

    This suggests that problem is not with the black and Hispanics or even immigration in general. The problem is white liberals.

  193. @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird


    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan
     
    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    Replies: @BS, @Daniel Chieh, @songbird

    The Chinese might be the only non-European nation with the distinction of successfully colonizing and subsequently genociding a West European population.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @BS

    Who are you referring to, the Tocharians? They're the only ethnically Western European group I can think of that has existed in the vicinity of China.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  194. @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird


    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan
     
    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    Replies: @BS, @Daniel Chieh, @songbird

    China obviously knocked out innumerable small nations and tribes to get to its size, but Taiwan is a good example why decentralization is important for expansion. Until there was a random “Ming” warlord trying to make a base outside of China, conquering it was pointless.

  195. @Thulean Friend
    @128


    And in terms of underconsumption, all North East Asian economies are basically unbalanced one way or another, and yet they have been able to keep this up for decades on end without much harm to their economies.
     
    This is because Uncle Sam runs the system and is willing to tolerate stratospheric savings rates, often manipulated exchange rates, and outright protectionism to shield domestic businessess.

    The entry ticket price is political submission to US' core geopolitcal interests. No free lunches. China was given the benefit of the doubt early on, but that benefit has been revoked, possibly permanently as long as CCP controls the country.

    If you suppress your domestic demand you need to supplement with an external source. That path is now closed for China. As mentioned in the OP, China still needs the demand of the developed world given their low incomes. Since China cannot rely on this path, it has no other option than to gorge on debt in lieu of what the Taiwanese, Koreans et al did, namely rely on external demand.

    The debt explosion at much lower incomes means rapid zombiefication and the attendant cost of decaying efficiency of capital with massive overinvestment.

    Add to this the domestic challenge I mentioned, the incapability of rebalancing due to various powerful constituencies blocking genuine reform. This isn't doom, but it sufficient to prevent China from being a nodal power á la USA post-1945. They will still converge for 10-15 years at least, but beyond that, it will become a huge challenge.

    Replies: @Eugene Norman

    Your analysis is dubious. China is still trading with Europe and Asia. It’s just created a new trading block with its neighbours and has created an investment pact with the EU. Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    Average per capita is at $10k, but incomes are bi-modal. There’s a lot of rural poor and a large middle and wealthy class.

    According to CNN (2019).

    A new report from Credit Suisse (CS) shows that wealth in China is ticking up, and the country now accounts for 100 million of the richest 10% of people in the world. There are 99 million Americans in the same category.

    • Replies: @Thulean Friend
    @Eugene Norman

    The fact that it is "still trading" is an irrelevant point. All countries are trading.
    RCEP is a welcome step but as I noted previously, it lacks a big deficit country since most of the countries in there are surplus ones.


    Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.
     
    This is completely bonkers. China has *increased* its trade surplus despite the world going into a depression. That's the exact opposite of "supplying demand". And it shows you how China's economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don't even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.

    Replies: @Astarte, @Eugene Norman

  196. @BS
    @Kent Nationalist

    The Chinese might be the only non-European nation with the distinction of successfully colonizing and subsequently genociding a West European population.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    Who are you referring to, the Tocharians? They’re the only ethnically Western European group I can think of that has existed in the vicinity of China.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    He's referring to the Dutch colonists, though arguably they were merged into the population. Red hair, etc exists now in the Taiwanese population.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @BS

  197. @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

    Now explain why northeast Asians have higher cranial capacity than whites.

    You would make more sense if you simply argued that whites outperform northeast Asians on “inventing things” and “conquering other continents” because of non-intelligence personality factors. But instead, you must argue that test scores are the result of non-intelligence personality factors and that whites are actually smarter than northeast Asians. Dumb.

  198. @Europe Europa
    @BS

    Who are you referring to, the Tocharians? They're the only ethnically Western European group I can think of that has existed in the vicinity of China.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    He’s referring to the Dutch colonists, though arguably they were merged into the population. Red hair, etc exists now in the Taiwanese population.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    @Daniel Chieh

    Red hair was in Taiwan before the Europeans arrived and comes from the Taiwanese natives -- there's no European ancestry in Taiwan and certainly not enough to make red hair a thing there. It's a Neanderthal-related variant of MC1R, not related to the one found in modern Europeans, and is found at highest frequencies (~75%) in Taiwanese aboriginals.


    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263015244_Neanderthal_Origin_of_the_Haplotypes_Carrying_the_Functional_Variant_Val92Met_in_the_MC1R_in_Modern_Humans

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @BS
    @Daniel Chieh

    So successful that even a fellow with the handle "Europe Europa" doesn't even know about it! Don't know how common red hair actually is in Taiwan, I was under the impression that apart from the occasionally nordsinid KMT-descended ruling class, they were all swarthy 5'1 Hoklos.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  199. @Lot
    @Wency

    There’s no question NE asians develop slowest physically.

    We should always assume Rushton’s B-W-A ordering applies to human traits absent good contrary evidence. Of course there are exceptions, like height.

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    But the fact that my view is PC in this one respect doesn’t make my view false. I do think NE Asians have higher and blacks lower intelligence, just not as big of a gap as IQ tests indicate.

    The reason is all IQ tests also test “test-taking temperament.” Within races, this TTT factor is very strongly correlated with intelligence itself. But TTT becomes a problem with interracial comparisons. TTT is distributed like most personality traits B W A.

    Replies: @Anon, @snooker player

    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    According to Davide Piffer, the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.

    White gentiles are the most underrepresented group at Harvard, Yale, etc., so according to your logic, these IQ tests overstate White gentile intelligence the most, and this is the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    • Replies: @Lot
    @snooker player

    “ the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.”

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.


    “so according to your logic”

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    Replies: @snooker player, @KA, @Barr

  200. @snooker player
    @Lot


    IQ tests were entirely developed by whites for whites. My view is they slightly understate black intelligence and overstate NE Asian intelligence. This is also of course the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.
     
    According to Davide Piffer, the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.

    White gentiles are the most underrepresented group at Harvard, Yale, etc., so according to your logic, these IQ tests overstate White gentile intelligence the most, and this is the view of Harvard, Yale, etc.

    Replies: @Lot

    “ the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.”

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.

    “so according to your logic”

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    • Replies: @snooker player
    @Lot


    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.
     
    See Piffer's recent comments. Most of the higher IQ variants from the European GWAS are also present among blacks. About 25% of the SNPs are estimated to be from outside of Africa. And whether you use older or newer SNPs, the difference between blacks and whites remains similar:

    https://wildtype.home.blog/2019/11/01/a-reply-to-the-big-four/

    When they are computed using ancient or recent SNPs, polygenic scores exhibit a very similar difference between West Africans (Yorubans) and Europans (White Americans).

    In summary, we can refute the authors’ claim that there are no IQ/EDU-increasing alleles that are unique to non Africans. In fact, 25% of the SNPs probably originated after the the out of Africa exodus. However, the presence of population-specific alleles is not required to make some populations smarter than others. Selection can act on standing variation – that is, alleles that existed in a population before an environmental change causing selection pressure took place – , and produce allele frequency shifts at ancient SNPs that are shared across continental groups (Lee & Coop, 2017).
     

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”
     
    Your logic is that representation levels at Harvard et al are determined by IQ. This is obviously untrue. You could find higher IQ non-black students to replace black Harvard even after handicapping the black students extra IQ points. And why would it be true? IQ has never been the sole criterion for admissions. There are other criteria and social mission aims that determine admissions.
    , @KA
    @Lot

    IQ is a psychological variable and polygenic . Blood pressure and heights are physiological variables and polygenic . All 3 are more responsive to environmental manipulation . IQ can change in life time by 20 points or so from early intervention .

    Recent post election phenomena have shown the depth of the stupidity among the Trump supporters
    Emotion has sliced and diced their IQ tapestry into stupid chunks . American falling so easily for propaganda shows the poor quality of the intelligence , the emotional barrier to using the intelligence and the inability of the intelligence to deliver anything of substantiate nature . IQ doesn’t matter so much if the society cant harvest it and allow it to flourish .

    Does accepting the vacuous claim on WMD makes it possible for us believe that Dinosaur walked on earth side by side with human ? Does the regurgitated lies about Russia Gate make us believe that Non-Russia Gate has deprived Trump the expected win ?
    Does the imposed social constrains on thinking as cultivated partisanly by CNN and FOX deprive us the capacity to question ,think alternative ,explore other variables? It does.
    Does this constrain then flow into the class room where we dont question teacher because of fear of ridicule ? It does .In the process we end up with poor understanding of mathematics physics biology and also of world history .


    IQ cant be compartmentalized . A healthy culture allows a student to question Einestein and also allows to question the anchors of TV , media columnist, city alderman ,historians ,religious contradictions , inconsistencies in the dominant social political economic and philosophical narratives.

    IQ isn’t something that is stored in the upper shelf of a warehouse .It is dynamic and is passed from one to next regeneration by behaviorally and by genetics .Environment with or without epigenetic add to that complexity .

    , @Barr
    @Lot

    I will add few more ideas to it. ( KA-366) Learning the uses of vocabulary can increase the space for thoughts . Like simple motor movements can make masteri(ng the more difficult more complex movements easier and possible..Intelligence can work same way . It is like building the math skill or puzzle solving skills over time through learning less challenging math and puzzles.

    We need to remember that Newton or Einstein might have required 160 or more in IQ but an IQ of 100-110 would be enough to understand the theory and master it .

    When we prevent the free flow of relevant and related thoughts whether in political social contexts or in the pulpit or in classes, we are preventing emergencies of the skills on which future skills— ,more thinking abilities ,reasoning and logic could be built.

    The mind bears some attributes of muscle and mechanical skills , It can lose its powers unless used or never learn .
    People left from early life away from social emotional environmental stimuli never learn later simple skills necessary for survival .Components that undergird the IQ have decayed beyond possibility of recovery.

    Then there are few other kind of relevances . A certain height or blood pressure value is essential to live, function independently or stay productive . We don’t need 6 feet or even 5 feet height . We might have found it advantageous in a forest dealing with predatory animals for plucking the fruits from the tree branches .
    General IQ of 90 is enough to survive ,build society, maintain law and orders,apply justice ,compose music folklores stories ,share empathy, and save for future, maintain factories running .
    Additional IQ can take us to the moon and the deep down the ocean, but we can do without them.
    Our achievements may look spectacular but we already have achieved spectacularly with 90 IQ . We don’t appreciate it because it’s manifestation is a commonplace .

    War,propaganda,superstition,fundamentalism,racism,poverty and fear ,insecurity can easily destroy those commonplace enduring achievements .

  201. @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    He's referring to the Dutch colonists, though arguably they were merged into the population. Red hair, etc exists now in the Taiwanese population.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @BS

    Red hair was in Taiwan before the Europeans arrived and comes from the Taiwanese natives — there’s no European ancestry in Taiwan and certainly not enough to make red hair a thing there. It’s a Neanderthal-related variant of MC1R, not related to the one found in modern Europeans, and is found at highest frequencies (~75%) in Taiwanese aboriginals.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263015244_Neanderthal_Origin_of_the_Haplotypes_Carrying_the_Functional_Variant_Val92Met_in_the_MC1R_in_Modern_Humans

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @JohnPlywood

    You are incorrect, though that's nothing new.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa#Dutch


    Some Dutch physical characteristics such as auburn and red hair among people in regions of south Taiwan are a consequence of this episode of Dutch women becoming concubines to the Chinese commanders. The Dutch women who were taken as slave concubines and wives were never freed. In 1684 some were reported to be living in captivity. A Dutch merchant in Quemoy was contacted with an arrangement, proposed by a son of Koxinga's, to release the prisoners, but it came to nothing.

     

    Being something which I have a little bit of real personal experience with, several of my father's classmates had red hair from Dutch ancestry.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood

  202. @Daniel Chieh
    @Europe Europa

    He's referring to the Dutch colonists, though arguably they were merged into the population. Red hair, etc exists now in the Taiwanese population.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @BS

    So successful that even a fellow with the handle “Europe Europa” doesn’t even know about it! Don’t know how common red hair actually is in Taiwan, I was under the impression that apart from the occasionally nordsinid KMT-descended ruling class, they were all swarthy 5’1 Hoklos.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @BS

    I mean, there were plenty of Chinese under Koxinga before Lord Chiang brought his people(and my ancestors) there.

  203. @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    You have no idea what you’re talking about.

    The Japanese were subdued and are still ruled to this day by the Ainu. All emporers of Japanese history carry the Ainu haplogroup D1:

    https://peaceandjustice.freeforums.net/thread/852/japanese-emperors-dna-haplogroup-d1b1a2

    A plurality of Japanese males today descend from Ainu men and non-Ainu East Asian women, the Ainu populations that never switched over to Japanese also all descend from Japanese women.

    This idea of Ainu as some sort of “conquered” group that has developed over the years, and become especially popular on anonymous message boards, has been totally annihilated by the genetic and archaelogical evidence. It is just another folklorish fabrication of history by simpletons that ignores the glaring and obvious fact that Japan is a layered mixed-race society with an Ainu ruling elite. Any oppression of Ainu in later times was minimal and done by people who were part Ainu themselves.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @JohnPlywood

    til I learned that Japanese emperors have mouth tattoos and worship bears through ritual sacrifice.

    Oh wait, as usual, you have no clue what you're talking about.

    For others who are actually interested in the Ainu, who had rather unusual and interesting rituals:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iomante


    After the cub reaches one or two years of age, they release it from the cell and place it in the center of the village, where it is tied to a post with a rope. The males in the village then take shots at the cub with bows and arrows. Even at the age of two years, the brown bears are quite large, and it usually takes numerous shots before they fall. After the bear has been weakened from numerous arrow strikes and is too weak to defend itself, one villager will approach the bear and shoot it in the neck point-blank, to ensure that it is dead. The villagers then slit the bear's throat and drink the blood. The bear is skinned, and the meat is distributed amongst the villagers. Its bare skull is placed on a spear, which is then rewrapped with the bear's own fur. This "doll" is an object of worship for the villagers. The bear has now been "sent off" to the world of the gods.

     

    https://www.tota.world/article/127/

    That the Ainu women tattoo their lips and arms, and in some districts their foreheads also, has been reported often. The men, however, never tattoo themselves. It is an absurd habit! and does not add to the beauty of the people. Nor have I yet been able to get any simple, direct, and sensible reason as to how the custom arose, or why it is kept up. The tattoo is of a bluish-black colour, and the process of getting it in is both simple and painful.

     

    Replies: @JohnPlywood

    , @Sinotibetan
    @JohnPlywood

    What Songbird said about the Japanese subduing the Ainu is correct and what you said about the Japanese being mixed race(admixture of Yayoi = continental East Asian + Jomon = ancestors of Ainu) is also correct.
    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned). The rest are haplogroups commonly found in continental East Asians (likely Yayoi origin). The Japanese language is totally different from Ainu language(now said to be moribund and near extinction) and is likely brought by Yayoi migrants, or some form of language derived from Yayoi with Jomon substratum. What I am saying is that, the Japanese became a separate ethnic group with the blend of Yayoi and Jomon whereas the Jomons who did not admix with Yayoi became separate peoples called the Ainu.
    As to whether the Jomon during Japanese ethnogenesis subdued the Yayoi or vice versa, who knows? I am more inclined to think that the Yayoi migration(rather than invasion) was a rather gradual and 'peaceful' one, leading to intermarriages between local Jomon and migrant Yayoi and since the local chieftains would likely be Jomon, finally gave rise to the Japanese, with substantial Haplogroup D1 male ancestry and logically more in the elites(one local chieftain became emperor and sired many other aristocratic daimyo and warrior samurai, other local chieftains also evolved to daimyo and samurai), but certainly also substantial continental East Asian male haplogroups (60 to 70 percent Japanese males on average) in the population . The Japanese became more populous and technologically more advanced than the Jomon/Ainu due to agricultural techniques brought by the Yayoi. Then it became Japanese (mixed Yayoi-Jomon) subduing the Jomon/Ainu.
    If I may hypothesize an analogy:consider a USA in the not too distant future in which the population of White/European there has become a minority with current demographic trends. The country underwent Hispanization/Latin Americanization with widespread intermarriages giving predominantly phenotypically mestizoid like population. However the elites who led to this situation were originally white/European heritage, and remain elites, though admixed and mestizoid. The new 'race' borned out of this admixture is called the Amerikana race. There are some hard-core racialist Whites holding out in pockets within USA. The New Amerikana race, being more populous, decides on either assimilating or exterminating these recalcitrant remnant whites.
    Amerikana analogous to 'Japanese'
    Whites analogous to 'Ainu'
    Are the phenotypically mestizoid Amerikana elites (if you were to do Y Haplogroup analyses, considered as 'European' predominantly) considered 'Whites' then?
    Ethnic wars, ethnic admixtures, ethnogenesis of new ethnic groups are part of human history and prehistory.... Many ancient events likely remain unknown despite all kinds of scientific analyses.
    I rest my case.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood

  204. @BS
    @Daniel Chieh

    So successful that even a fellow with the handle "Europe Europa" doesn't even know about it! Don't know how common red hair actually is in Taiwan, I was under the impression that apart from the occasionally nordsinid KMT-descended ruling class, they were all swarthy 5'1 Hoklos.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    I mean, there were plenty of Chinese under Koxinga before Lord Chiang brought his people(and my ancestors) there.

  205. @JohnPlywood
    @Daniel Chieh

    Red hair was in Taiwan before the Europeans arrived and comes from the Taiwanese natives -- there's no European ancestry in Taiwan and certainly not enough to make red hair a thing there. It's a Neanderthal-related variant of MC1R, not related to the one found in modern Europeans, and is found at highest frequencies (~75%) in Taiwanese aboriginals.


    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263015244_Neanderthal_Origin_of_the_Haplotypes_Carrying_the_Functional_Variant_Val92Met_in_the_MC1R_in_Modern_Humans

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    You are incorrect, though that’s nothing new.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa#Dutch

    Some Dutch physical characteristics such as auburn and red hair among people in regions of south Taiwan are a consequence of this episode of Dutch women becoming concubines to the Chinese commanders. The Dutch women who were taken as slave concubines and wives were never freed. In 1684 some were reported to be living in captivity. A Dutch merchant in Quemoy was contacted with an arrangement, proposed by a son of Koxinga’s, to release the prisoners, but it came to nothing.

    Being something which I have a little bit of real personal experience with, several of my father’s classmates had red hair from Dutch ancestry.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    @Daniel Chieh

    Except there is nothing in that quote that proves red hair is from Europeans (just a dumb historian's sumise), against the scientific proof that Taiwanese aboriginals carry a Neanderthal MC1R variant associated with red hair, at a frequency of ~75%.

    Let's be honest, Daniel... You just read the stupid Wiki article, took it for granted, and are now doubling down on your stupidity and making shit up. Which is, of course, wholly expected.


    Let me know when you find a single genetic study describing European admixture in Taiwanese Chinese. I have yet to see one. I know of several describing Taiwanese aboriginal admixture, here's the most recent one:


    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/5955855


    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/34128973/msaa276.pdf


    Admixed genetic ancestries of the Taiwanese Han


    Population-specific genetic diversity accumulated along human migration trajectories could shape the genetic  basis of diseases differently among populations (Chen et al. 2012; Corona et al. 2013; Wall et al. 2020).  Although the genetic structure of the Han people in China has been investigated extensively in recent years  (Wen et al. 2004; Xue et al. 2008; Chen et al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009; Zhao et al. 2015; Chiang et al. 2018),  studies focusing on genetic ancestry of the Han populations outside of China and the level of admixture with  other ethnic groups, particularly on the island of Taiwan, are limited (Chen et al. 2016).

    In the present study,  we first characterized the genetic ancestry of individual genomes and identified four major ancestries as well  as subtle genetic structure within the Taiwanese Han. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chen et al.  (2016), who utilized a smaller number of populations to identify four major ancestries and suggested that 80%  of Taiwanese Han people are genetically closer to the Southern Han Chinese than to the Northern Han Chinese.  However, the geographic patterns of these ancestries were not thoroughly discussed in their analysis.


    While our inferred pattern of ancestries is also in good agreement with the previous studies that analyzed the  Pan-Asia and HGDP datasets separately (Li et al. 2008; Abdulla et al. 2009), by analyzing the combined data,  we were able to gain a better overview of the geographic distributions of these ancestries; consequently, they  can be referred to as the Southeastern (blue), Northern (yellow), Island Southeast Asian (ISEA; pink), and  Japonic (green) ancestries. Notably, we identified considerable proportions of ISEA ancestry (also carried by  many Austronesian-speaking populations in high proportions) in most individuals of Taiwanese Han (average  15%, range 0.1% - 62%). The mixed ancestries observed in the Taiwanese Han could be attributed to either  population mixture or shared ancestry before the divergence of descendent populations. We therefore applied  the F3 tests to detect signatures of population mixture. Consequently, our results showed that the ISEA  ancestry in the Taiwanese Han was the outcome of population mixtures rather than shared ancestry, and the  admixture event likely occurred before the Taiwanese Han ancestors migrated to Taiwan (fig. 2A).

    If the  admixture occurred only after the Han people migrated to Taiwan, then the observed results would only be  seen in the Taiwanese Han. However, similar F3 outcomes were found in the Chinese Han (supplementary fig.  S2, Supplementary Material online), supporting that admixture occurred prior to migration to Taiwan.  Moreover, signatures of population admixture were also detected between the ancestors of Taiwanese Han and  the Ami Austronesian-speaking population using the F4 test; significant positive F4 values were observed  when most Sino-Tibetan speaking populations were individually included in the analysis, except for the  Chinese Singapore and Chinese Cantonese (Table 1). These two populations appear to be genetically closest to  the Taiwanese Han among all other Sino-Tibetan speaking populations (fig. 1B), which is consistent with the  hypothesis of population mixture before the ancestors of Taiwanese Han migrated to Taiwan.
     
    There is no European ancestry in Taiwan; certainly not enough for your father to be having "several" classmates with modern European-specific red hair genes. Western Europeans will have about 2/100 classmates with red hair. The idea that European red hair genes are surviving in a 99% black haired population, with no European ancestral component to speak of, is laughable.

    On the other hand, the MC1R variant most common in Taiwan could conceivably cause reddish hair in rare cases -- possibly high enough to give maybe a 1/1000 rate of reddish hair in Taiwanese with Atayal-like admixture.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  206. @JohnPlywood
    @songbird


    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.
     
    You have no idea what you're talking about.


    The Japanese were subdued and are still ruled to this day by the Ainu. All emporers of Japanese history carry the Ainu haplogroup D1:



    https://peaceandjustice.freeforums.net/thread/852/japanese-emperors-dna-haplogroup-d1b1a2



    A plurality of Japanese males today descend from Ainu men and non-Ainu East Asian women, the Ainu populations that never switched over to Japanese also all descend from Japanese women.


    This idea of Ainu as some sort of "conquered" group that has developed over the years, and become especially popular on anonymous message boards, has been totally annihilated by the genetic and archaelogical evidence. It is just another folklorish fabrication of history by simpletons that ignores the glaring and obvious fact that Japan is a layered mixed-race society with an Ainu ruling elite. Any oppression of Ainu in later times was minimal and done by people who were part Ainu themselves.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Sinotibetan

    til I learned that Japanese emperors have mouth tattoos and worship bears through ritual sacrifice.

    Oh wait, as usual, you have no clue what you’re talking about.

    For others who are actually interested in the Ainu, who had rather unusual and interesting rituals:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iomante

    After the cub reaches one or two years of age, they release it from the cell and place it in the center of the village, where it is tied to a post with a rope. The males in the village then take shots at the cub with bows and arrows. Even at the age of two years, the brown bears are quite large, and it usually takes numerous shots before they fall. After the bear has been weakened from numerous arrow strikes and is too weak to defend itself, one villager will approach the bear and shoot it in the neck point-blank, to ensure that it is dead. The villagers then slit the bear’s throat and drink the blood. The bear is skinned, and the meat is distributed amongst the villagers. Its bare skull is placed on a spear, which is then rewrapped with the bear’s own fur. This “doll” is an object of worship for the villagers. The bear has now been “sent off” to the world of the gods.

    https://www.tota.world/article/127/

    That the Ainu women tattoo their lips and arms, and in some districts their foreheads also, has been reported often. The men, however, never tattoo themselves. It is an absurd habit! and does not add to the beauty of the people. Nor have I yet been able to get any simple, direct, and sensible reason as to how the custom arose, or why it is kept up. The tattoo is of a bluish-black colour, and the process of getting it in is both simple and painful.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    @Daniel Chieh

    Yeah, they don't have lip tats... But they do have the variant of the Y-DNA haplogroup D1 that is indigenous to the Japanese archipelago, and found at 80% frequency in the Ainu. Which is what I said. Dumbass.


    Meaning that, since the iron age onward, the ruling class of Japan has been of Ainu male + Yayoi female origin. I also noticed that Ainu male haplotypes are the most common in Japanese males but that female haplotypes are nearly absent, including among the Ainu themselves. Shine my shoes.

  207. @mal

    This is because only high IQ nations are capable of maintaining the complex “O-Ring” type processes that separate truly developed/First World nations from the rest.
     
    This is true only for production activities which are thankfully getting reduced as a share of overall economic activity, employment, and GDP.

    As I mentioned in another post, I expect agriculture and industry to shrink from current 5% and 11% to 2% and 3% respectively and employment in those industries to shrink from 2% and 11% to something like 0.5% and 2% by 2050.

    Automation and efficiency gains are relentless and massively deflationary, as more stuff is made more efficiently, prices will collapse far faster than demand for the output will grow due to poor demographics and income distribution, which in turn will lower the nominal GDP in those sectors. Old people will have all the assets and income and young and middle aged will be poor and irrelevant in GDP calculations; not only young will be poor but there also will be few of them so so that is double negative for their share of GDP.

    Only old people matter for GDP calculations in the future. And ability to increase debt. Nothing else matters. Even Africans, even with low average IQ, will be able to find top 3% of their population to run their advanced processes, and thats all that will be required, really. The rest will become Medicare Billing Assistants, which doesn't require high IQ and those people will be the future of the world. Which is why I expect economies of different countries to converge in the end.

    And in services, high IQ needs are questionable. You probably want the doctors to be somewhat smart, but a professor of Intersectional Literature? Does it really matter if her IQ is 150 or 80? Lawyers and financiers are inherently parasitic and serve little to no value in society, they only engage in negative sum games. It will only be beneficial if they are dumber than average. Does your plumber need 130 IQ? Unlikely.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Plumbers are better if they have high IQs. Sure, constructing a building doesn’t require great skills but finding the fault and fixing can while runing your own business.

    • Replies: @mal
    @Philip Owen

    You don't want a really smart plumber or any other contractor - he will outsmart you and charge you more money, and you won't even know whats happening. :)

    , @showmethereal
    @Philip Owen

    Yeah I found that strange... Why would someone not want a high IQ plumber...? I mean they don't need to be a genius - but they should be above average intelligence.

    , @Wency
    @Philip Owen

    Yeah, I imagine that's why I always heard the term "ditch-diggers" growing up. Plumbing can be complicated and easy to screw up. You actually want someone who can think through these things, especially for bigger projects.

    But it probably is better that any guy you put to work digging ditches with a shovel, all day everyday, not be that smart. Pure, mindless manual labor can be enjoyable a few hours per week for clearing your head and strengthening your soft office-worker body, but any intelligent person who does that kind of labor day after day is likely to be bored out of his mind, disgruntled and dissatisfied. A dumber person won't be so bored and can stay focused on the task and satisfied enough with his lot -- at least he has work.

    Of course, nowadays most jobs like this have been automated or facilitated with powerful equipment. And you actually want as intelligent a person as you can get operating any massive machines that can cause massive damage.

    Replies: @Daemon

  208. @Daniel Chieh
    @JohnPlywood

    til I learned that Japanese emperors have mouth tattoos and worship bears through ritual sacrifice.

    Oh wait, as usual, you have no clue what you're talking about.

    For others who are actually interested in the Ainu, who had rather unusual and interesting rituals:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iomante


    After the cub reaches one or two years of age, they release it from the cell and place it in the center of the village, where it is tied to a post with a rope. The males in the village then take shots at the cub with bows and arrows. Even at the age of two years, the brown bears are quite large, and it usually takes numerous shots before they fall. After the bear has been weakened from numerous arrow strikes and is too weak to defend itself, one villager will approach the bear and shoot it in the neck point-blank, to ensure that it is dead. The villagers then slit the bear's throat and drink the blood. The bear is skinned, and the meat is distributed amongst the villagers. Its bare skull is placed on a spear, which is then rewrapped with the bear's own fur. This "doll" is an object of worship for the villagers. The bear has now been "sent off" to the world of the gods.

     

    https://www.tota.world/article/127/

    That the Ainu women tattoo their lips and arms, and in some districts their foreheads also, has been reported often. The men, however, never tattoo themselves. It is an absurd habit! and does not add to the beauty of the people. Nor have I yet been able to get any simple, direct, and sensible reason as to how the custom arose, or why it is kept up. The tattoo is of a bluish-black colour, and the process of getting it in is both simple and painful.

     

    Replies: @JohnPlywood

    Yeah, they don’t have lip tats… But they do have the variant of the Y-DNA haplogroup D1 that is indigenous to the Japanese archipelago, and found at 80% frequency in the Ainu. Which is what I said. Dumbass.

    Meaning that, since the iron age onward, the ruling class of Japan has been of Ainu male + Yayoi female origin. I also noticed that Ainu male haplotypes are the most common in Japanese males but that female haplotypes are nearly absent, including among the Ainu themselves. Shine my shoes.

  209. @Philip Owen
    @mal

    Plumbers are better if they have high IQs. Sure, constructing a building doesn't require great skills but finding the fault and fixing can while runing your own business.

    Replies: @mal, @showmethereal, @Wency

    You don’t want a really smart plumber or any other contractor – he will outsmart you and charge you more money, and you won’t even know whats happening. 🙂

  210. @Zhang Shoucheng
    Everyone except the disingenuous or the idiotic knows that nominal GDP is worthless. For instance 18 percent of America's much vaunted GDP is medical spending, nothing more than a gigantic medical protection racket. 20 percent of Canada's GDP is real estate, a.k.a. passing back and forth overpriced tulip bulb houses. This does not represent real productivity at all. Some people understand this but the majority are brainwashed and indoctrinated.
    Recently I was able to compare the Ukraine, namely: Vynnitsia, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsch, Yaremche Probiy with Canada, namely Horse....couver(sometimes mispronounced as Vancouver).
    The Lavina mall on the outskirts of Kyiv better than anything in BC. The Silpo "Сільпо"" chain of food stores better stocked than the pathetic efforts in BC, especially the Safeway. The 'Safeway to peddle' schlock or ersatz pseudo food. Most Ukrainians live in small apartments, most people in Rainymoldycouver live in small condos. As Gertrude Stein remarked 'a rose is a rose is a rose', except that the 'rose'(more like stinkweed) at the Olympic Village starts in the 800's. Most Ukrainians wear tawdry clothes. Most Canadians wear tawdry clothes. I am searching mightily for a difference but I cannot find one except that Canadians wear running shoes. They cannot afford real shoes. A pair of Allen Edmonds, a middle of the road US shoemaker, is pushing $600 with full retail in Horsefeatherscouver and the hoi polloi cannot afford them.
    Many lovely homes in Mikylichin area of the Carpathians while Canadians live in hideous townhouse crapola in Drearyrainymoldycouver.
    Nice to know that Canadians are just so wealthy and have such a great GDP. I've seen enough to know there is a large element of farce and fraud in this.

    Replies: @utu, @Suicidal_canadian, @The Spirit of Enoch Powell, @Max Payne, @Philip Owen

    I can’t speak for Ukraine but I can observe that in Russia, the 15% of people with their own businesses or professioanl jobs seem to live as well or better than in the UK or indeed, Hongcouver although most of my acquaintance is with Burnaby. That said, the top third of the business/professional class in the UK/Canada probably live better than the Russians. There are fewer Russian hanging on to their parents’ fading businesses. That said, public investment and services in Russia are appallingly bad compared to the UK, below even US levels.

  211. @utu
    @Zhang Shoucheng

    Per capita shoe consumption (2018)

    UK 7.4
    USA 7.2
    France 6.1
    Germany 5.6

    Canada 4.5

    Russia 2.4
    India 1.9

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077289/country-ranking-by-per-capita-shoe-consumption/

    Replies: @AP, @Another German Reader, @Philip Owen, @God's Fool

    It rains in the UK. Shoes need to be sturdy and watertight. Maybe Russian boots don’t count as shoes.

  212. @Mr. Hack
    @Max Payne

    Why not compare the roads of Colossal Canada with those of Eurasian Russia, instead of with "puny Ukraine"? Outside of Moscow ad St. Pete's, this is pretty much what the majority of the roads look like. Again, it looks like Little Russia and Big Russia have more in common that either has with Canada:

    https://blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/files/2012/04/Oxa-road.jpg

    https://blogs.voanews.com/russia-watch/files/2012/04/pothole-roads_in_russia_640_02.jpg

    Replies: @mal

    90% of Canada lives within like 100 miles of US border. Where Russia has at least bad roads Canada has none on the account of nobody living at those latitudes. If you want to go Caribou hunting in Canada you need to take an airplane. In Russia a 4X4 will probably get you where you need to be if the season is right, even far north.

    So I don’t think Canada and Russia are directly comparable – Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    • Replies: @Rahan
    @mal


    So I don’t think Canada and Russia are directly comparable – Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.
     
    Likewise modern Canada in on an eternal free ride concerning its safety in a military sense. Its only land border is a well-intentioned superpower.

    In the new future, who knows, everything seems in flux these days. But up to now that's how it worked.
  213. @Passer by
    Here is the estimate used by the US National Intelligence Council -

    A long term decline for the US and the EU, decline for China after 2070, a long term rise for India and Africa.

    https://imgur.com/a/qtcLxDM

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @mal

    Demographics = consumer = GDP in the long run.

  214. @Lot
    @snooker player

    “ the genetic variants for IQ among Europeans found solely by looking at Europeans also correlate with the IQ levels among others like blacks, Asians, etc.”

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.


    “so according to your logic”

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    Replies: @snooker player, @KA, @Barr

    They do, but IQ-linked SNPs identified in a white population explain less than half the variation in non-white populations as the white population. I think one study it was 80% less for blacks.

    See Piffer’s recent comments. Most of the higher IQ variants from the European GWAS are also present among blacks. About 25% of the SNPs are estimated to be from outside of Africa. And whether you use older or newer SNPs, the difference between blacks and whites remains similar:

    https://wildtype.home.blog/2019/11/01/a-reply-to-the-big-four/

    When they are computed using ancient or recent SNPs, polygenic scores exhibit a very similar difference between West Africans (Yorubans) and Europans (White Americans).

    In summary, we can refute the authors’ claim that there are no IQ/EDU-increasing alleles that are unique to non Africans. In fact, 25% of the SNPs probably originated after the the out of Africa exodus. However, the presence of population-specific alleles is not required to make some populations smarter than others. Selection can act on standing variation – that is, alleles that existed in a population before an environmental change causing selection pressure took place – , and produce allele frequency shifts at ancient SNPs that are shared across continental groups (Lee & Coop, 2017).

    My logic isn’t “Harvard is right about everything.”

    Your logic is that representation levels at Harvard et al are determined by IQ. This is obviously untrue. You could find higher IQ non-black students to replace black Harvard even after handicapping the black students extra IQ points. And why would it be true? IQ has never been the sole criterion for admissions. There are other criteria and social mission aims that determine admissions.

  215. @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @last straw, @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That’s the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the future auto industry when conventional vehicle with internal combustion engines are phased out, China also have some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD.

    Nio’s ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet’s Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized internationally.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/

  216. @Daniel Chieh
    @JohnPlywood

    You are incorrect, though that's nothing new.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Formosa#Dutch


    Some Dutch physical characteristics such as auburn and red hair among people in regions of south Taiwan are a consequence of this episode of Dutch women becoming concubines to the Chinese commanders. The Dutch women who were taken as slave concubines and wives were never freed. In 1684 some were reported to be living in captivity. A Dutch merchant in Quemoy was contacted with an arrangement, proposed by a son of Koxinga's, to release the prisoners, but it came to nothing.

     

    Being something which I have a little bit of real personal experience with, several of my father's classmates had red hair from Dutch ancestry.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood

    Except there is nothing in that quote that proves red hair is from Europeans (just a dumb historian’s sumise), against the scientific proof that Taiwanese aboriginals carry a Neanderthal MC1R variant associated with red hair, at a frequency of ~75%.

    Let’s be honest, Daniel… You just read the stupid Wiki article, took it for granted, and are now doubling down on your stupidity and making shit up. Which is, of course, wholly expected.

    Let me know when you find a single genetic study describing European admixture in Taiwanese Chinese. I have yet to see one. I know of several describing Taiwanese aboriginal admixture, here’s the most recent one:

    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/5955855

    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/34128973/msaa276.pdf

    Admixed genetic ancestries of the Taiwanese Han

    Population-specific genetic diversity accumulated along human migration trajectories could shape the genetic  basis of diseases differently among populations (Chen et al. 2012; Corona et al. 2013; Wall et al. 2020).  Although the genetic structure of the Han people in China has been investigated extensively in recent years  (Wen et al. 2004; Xue et al. 2008; Chen et al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009; Zhao et al. 2015; Chiang et al. 2018),  studies focusing on genetic ancestry of the Han populations outside of China and the level of admixture with  other ethnic groups, particularly on the island of Taiwan, are limited (Chen et al. 2016).

    In the present study,  we first characterized the genetic ancestry of individual genomes and identified four major ancestries as well  as subtle genetic structure within the Taiwanese Han. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chen et al.  (2016), who utilized a smaller number of populations to identify four major ancestries and suggested that 80%  of Taiwanese Han people are genetically closer to the Southern Han Chinese than to the Northern Han Chinese.  However, the geographic patterns of these ancestries were not thoroughly discussed in their analysis.

    While our inferred pattern of ancestries is also in good agreement with the previous studies that analyzed the  Pan-Asia and HGDP datasets separately (Li et al. 2008; Abdulla et al. 2009), by analyzing the combined data,  we were able to gain a better overview of the geographic distributions of these ancestries; consequently, they  can be referred to as the Southeastern (blue), Northern (yellow), Island Southeast Asian (ISEA; pink), and  Japonic (green) ancestries. Notably, we identified considerable proportions of ISEA ancestry (also carried by  many Austronesian-speaking populations in high proportions) in most individuals of Taiwanese Han (average  15%, range 0.1% – 62%). The mixed ancestries observed in the Taiwanese Han could be attributed to either  population mixture or shared ancestry before the divergence of descendent populations. We therefore applied  the F3 tests to detect signatures of population mixture. Consequently, our results showed that the ISEA  ancestry in the Taiwanese Han was the outcome of population mixtures rather than shared ancestry, and the  admixture event likely occurred before the Taiwanese Han ancestors migrated to Taiwan (fig. 2A).

    If the  admixture occurred only after the Han people migrated to Taiwan, then the observed results would only be  seen in the Taiwanese Han. However, similar F3 outcomes were found in the Chinese Han (supplementary fig.  S2, Supplementary Material online), supporting that admixture occurred prior to migration to Taiwan.  Moreover, signatures of population admixture were also detected between the ancestors of Taiwanese Han and  the Ami Austronesian-speaking population using the F4 test; significant positive F4 values were observed  when most Sino-Tibetan speaking populations were individually included in the analysis, except for the  Chinese Singapore and Chinese Cantonese (Table 1). These two populations appear to be genetically closest to  the Taiwanese Han among all other Sino-Tibetan speaking populations (fig. 1B), which is consistent with the  hypothesis of population mixture before the ancestors of Taiwanese Han migrated to Taiwan.

    There is no European ancestry in Taiwan; certainly not enough for your father to be having “several” classmates with modern European-specific red hair genes. Western Europeans will have about 2/100 classmates with red hair. The idea that European red hair genes are surviving in a 99% black haired population, with no European ancestral component to speak of, is laughable.

    On the other hand, the MC1R variant most common in Taiwan could conceivably cause reddish hair in rare cases — possibly high enough to give maybe a 1/1000 rate of reddish hair in Taiwanese with Atayal-like admixture.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @JohnPlywood

    The burn of being wrong really does sting on you. I'm entertained.

    I suggest reading Lost Colony by Tonio Andrade for more information, though of course, you're just a troll. And right now, a frustrated troll because you know as well as any other, the Dutch population didn't vanish like taffy just because they lost ownership.

    That said, I think that's enough time spent on you for entertainment factor(and for others to chuckle at you for).

  217. @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    The average iq in the UK is not projected to be 85 by 2100. Look up the Flynn effect. The UK average iq will probably be at least 110 by 2100.

    • Troll: songbird
  218. @Thulean Friend
    Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I've already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.
    -
    There's no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It's true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn't follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India's decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn't the only place to scoop up talent.
    -
    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.
    -
    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn't just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden's transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they'd be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.
    -
    A few words about Taiwan. It's income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China's current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That's why Taiwan isn't a suitable aim for China. You can't get away with their policies unless you're a tiny gnat - while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.
    -
    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn't on the table here. It's about what it says about China's domestic economy.

    Some China 'bulls' claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That's confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    https://i.imgur.com/YWSJK6K.png

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China's leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China's economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn't because Wen was lying or was insincere. It's simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn't they succeed doing so in the future?
    -
    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It's not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their "barely above Mexico" current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

    Replies: @128, @128, @mal, @songbird, @showmethereal, @Adûnâi

    If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they’d be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.

    Virgin 160 IQ Chinese engineer vs Chad 80 IQ Woke Transgender African-American Lesbian Corporate Human Resources Lady. This will be a fun job interview to watch. 🙂

    More seriously though, you are right. Chinese smarts will come. And then they will transfer all those advanced technology back home to their friends and relatives. It may take IQ 160 in US to develop tech breakthrough, but IQ 120 back in China will be sufficient to successfully deploy it in production.

    You are quite correct in what you say, but your worldview is a bit incomplete. Цап царап (Russian for sneaky grab) will be a big thing in the future.

  219. @mal
    @Max Payne

    To be honest, those Ukrainian roads look amazing compared to some areas in Detroit, Chicago, and New York/New Jersey.

    Also, Ukraine probably also has excellent public transportation system - even in Russia in the 90's when things were bad, public transport was functional, so you didn't need a car to get around.

    Today in Russia you simply track any bus or tram on Yandex maps and show up at the stop when they do. Easy peasy.

    I don’t know about modern Ukraine, but I would think they would retain a functional public transport, so they wouldn't need so many cars.

    Replies: @AP, @Mr. Hack

    In addition to improving train transportation tracks and trains themselves, Ukraine is not standing still and is improving roads too, as evidenced by a $2billion new “ring highway system” around Kyiv itself (started in 2018). There’s always room for improvement, but it’s unfair to criticize Ukraine for poor roads when there’s plenty of them in other countries in the same neck of the woods.


    Kyiv already has pretty decent roads and is improving them all of the time. It’s time to pick up the pace elsewhere too.

    • Agree: mal
  220. @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird


    the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan
     
    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    Replies: @BS, @Daniel Chieh, @songbird

    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.

    There were probably some political factors at play. I think a lot of people have trouble understanding how big China was, and how difficult it was to rule a country that big, before industrialization. In 1600, China had a population of about 160 million – no railroads, no telegraph. The empire was unwieldy. The emperors were not seeking overseas colonies, possibly since they saw any new conquest might lead to the formation of new centers of power to disrupt their kingdom – new warlords, or pirate fleets.

    By contrast, in 1600, the Dutch Republic had a population of about 1.5 million. That’s about 1/106th of the population of China – much easier to rule. So compact that, today, about half of their territory was reclaimed from the sea.

    Nobody disputes that the Age of Exploration was a supreme European accomplishment, but it seems rather silly to count the separate conquests during this era, as thought they were separate ages that proved Europeans are inherently better at conquest, and not that they were supreme during this single era, which expired. The Vikings landed in North America – they did not conquer it – because they were not part of this era.

    The Dutch themselves were defeated or driven off more than once by the Chinese, before they took over Taiwan. They were driven off at Penghu, and defeated by the Ming navy off Liaoluo Bay. So, I’m not sure that one can say that they were militarily superior. And, of course, the Chinese were on Taiwan before the Dutch, who recorded the presence of about 1500, when they arrived.

    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird

    How many times were Chinese fleets driven off the coast of Zeeland?

    Replies: @songbird

  221. @Sinotibetan
    @songbird

    I don't know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians. I have friends who are very smart but they are not innovative, they are not passionate about new ideas. I don't know how to describe it.... There is not enough curiosity, less passionate about 'knowledge for knowledge' sake'?
    I have friends who scored and became top students in mathematics but years later they cannot even handle college algebra!
    When I teach some of my students and tried to instill some passion in the subject matter, they are more interested about what are the stuff they need to 'score' in the exams.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry

    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians.

    I think it is possible that Europeans might be a bit dumber on average, but have more geniuses at the high end. But I am agnostic about it. If it is true – we are rapidly losing this advantage due to dysgenics.

    Japanese seem more refined to me, and I wonder why this is so. Maybe, that is the extra few IQ points? Or maybe it is different personality factors? Or maybe, Europeans have been brought down by diversity – that they’ve been influenced by MENA people to lower standards of behavior? Whatever the explanation is, I think it is something real and observable.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @songbird

    Interesting observation about the Japanese. Unfortunately I have no answers to these questions. Earlier on, the Japanese imported Han dynasty and Tang dynasty culture + technology and they improved on them. Later, they learned modern science and technology, and improved on them. Other nations may innovate, the Japanese may adopt but improve on those innovations.
    About Europeans, I think the explanation is likely quite complex. Current political and cultural elites in the West and Europe tend to try to uplift non European cultures - especially African and Islamic ones - and focus on the negative aspects of European colonialism /imperialism. It's a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it's this 'moral superiority complex' of progressive elites to atone for 'white guilt' of European imperialism?
    To me, a descendant of 'the colonialized' , let bygones be bygones about European imperialism - it was not all bad, and it was not all good for both Europeans and the colonialized peoples. I want to be thankful of the good aspects - I am exposed to British culture, the British left a government and legal system for my country and brought technological and scientific advancement. A lot of bad things were done by British imperialists, but a lot of good were done too. And I think the British (sorry to the French,Dutch and Spaniards) did try to develop their colonies for the better (at least I can say this is true about my own country).
    I think the Europeans had great cultures and scientific and technological contributions to humanity. Their elites should stop undermining this legacy.

    Replies: @songbird

  222. @AlexanderGrozny
    @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    Replies: @last straw, @last straw

    Literally none if those are popular outside of China. No one in west has heard of them, and the chinese auto industry is awash with pale fakes of Japanese and European cars.

    While you were talking about conventional vehicles, I was referring to electric vehicles and EV battery makers. That’s the reason I said that these EV makers would be FUTURE household names in the first place. For those who know the auto industry, they know that conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines will be phased out in the next 20-30 years, that’s when these Chinese EV makers will be truly well known internationally. China also has some of the largest and most innovative EV battery makers in the world, which Tesla does not have. EV battery is the most critical technology for the EV industry, and China is already at the forefront, with manufactures such as CATL and BYD. Again, only industry insiders know the names such as CATL for now.

    Nio’s ES6 just got the best design award a few months ago. The fact that Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are listed on the U.S. stock markets and Buffet’s Berkshire bought BYD shares is further indication that these Chinese EV brands have already been recognized on the world stage somewhat.

    https://insideevs.com/news/420090/nio-wins-best-of-best-design-es6/

  223. @JohnPlywood
    @Daniel Chieh

    Except there is nothing in that quote that proves red hair is from Europeans (just a dumb historian's sumise), against the scientific proof that Taiwanese aboriginals carry a Neanderthal MC1R variant associated with red hair, at a frequency of ~75%.

    Let's be honest, Daniel... You just read the stupid Wiki article, took it for granted, and are now doubling down on your stupidity and making shit up. Which is, of course, wholly expected.


    Let me know when you find a single genetic study describing European admixture in Taiwanese Chinese. I have yet to see one. I know of several describing Taiwanese aboriginal admixture, here's the most recent one:


    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/5955855


    https://academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/molbev/msaa276/34128973/msaa276.pdf


    Admixed genetic ancestries of the Taiwanese Han


    Population-specific genetic diversity accumulated along human migration trajectories could shape the genetic  basis of diseases differently among populations (Chen et al. 2012; Corona et al. 2013; Wall et al. 2020).  Although the genetic structure of the Han people in China has been investigated extensively in recent years  (Wen et al. 2004; Xue et al. 2008; Chen et al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009; Zhao et al. 2015; Chiang et al. 2018),  studies focusing on genetic ancestry of the Han populations outside of China and the level of admixture with  other ethnic groups, particularly on the island of Taiwan, are limited (Chen et al. 2016).

    In the present study,  we first characterized the genetic ancestry of individual genomes and identified four major ancestries as well  as subtle genetic structure within the Taiwanese Han. Our results are consistent with the findings of Chen et al.  (2016), who utilized a smaller number of populations to identify four major ancestries and suggested that 80%  of Taiwanese Han people are genetically closer to the Southern Han Chinese than to the Northern Han Chinese.  However, the geographic patterns of these ancestries were not thoroughly discussed in their analysis.


    While our inferred pattern of ancestries is also in good agreement with the previous studies that analyzed the  Pan-Asia and HGDP datasets separately (Li et al. 2008; Abdulla et al. 2009), by analyzing the combined data,  we were able to gain a better overview of the geographic distributions of these ancestries; consequently, they  can be referred to as the Southeastern (blue), Northern (yellow), Island Southeast Asian (ISEA; pink), and  Japonic (green) ancestries. Notably, we identified considerable proportions of ISEA ancestry (also carried by  many Austronesian-speaking populations in high proportions) in most individuals of Taiwanese Han (average  15%, range 0.1% - 62%). The mixed ancestries observed in the Taiwanese Han could be attributed to either  population mixture or shared ancestry before the divergence of descendent populations. We therefore applied  the F3 tests to detect signatures of population mixture. Consequently, our results showed that the ISEA  ancestry in the Taiwanese Han was the outcome of population mixtures rather than shared ancestry, and the  admixture event likely occurred before the Taiwanese Han ancestors migrated to Taiwan (fig. 2A).

    If the  admixture occurred only after the Han people migrated to Taiwan, then the observed results would only be  seen in the Taiwanese Han. However, similar F3 outcomes were found in the Chinese Han (supplementary fig.  S2, Supplementary Material online), supporting that admixture occurred prior to migration to Taiwan.  Moreover, signatures of population admixture were also detected between the ancestors of Taiwanese Han and  the Ami Austronesian-speaking population using the F4 test; significant positive F4 values were observed  when most Sino-Tibetan speaking populations were individually included in the analysis, except for the  Chinese Singapore and Chinese Cantonese (Table 1). These two populations appear to be genetically closest to  the Taiwanese Han among all other Sino-Tibetan speaking populations (fig. 1B), which is consistent with the  hypothesis of population mixture before the ancestors of Taiwanese Han migrated to Taiwan.
     
    There is no European ancestry in Taiwan; certainly not enough for your father to be having "several" classmates with modern European-specific red hair genes. Western Europeans will have about 2/100 classmates with red hair. The idea that European red hair genes are surviving in a 99% black haired population, with no European ancestral component to speak of, is laughable.

    On the other hand, the MC1R variant most common in Taiwan could conceivably cause reddish hair in rare cases -- possibly high enough to give maybe a 1/1000 rate of reddish hair in Taiwanese with Atayal-like admixture.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    The burn of being wrong really does sting on you. I’m entertained.

    I suggest reading Lost Colony by Tonio Andrade for more information, though of course, you’re just a troll. And right now, a frustrated troll because you know as well as any other, the Dutch population didn’t vanish like taffy just because they lost ownership.

    That said, I think that’s enough time spent on you for entertainment factor(and for others to chuckle at you for).

  224. @Thulean Friend
    Most of this thread is a rehash of the old one, so I will try to put a premium on novel takes. I've already dealt with issues like why doing simplistic extrapolations of Taiwan/SK is naïve.
    -
    There's no evidence of the recent decline of highly skilled migrants being supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained. Contra rightoid propaganda, Trump has indeed damaged the US by foolish immigration restrictionism.
    In 2016 when he won the election, population growth in the US was 0.717%. Last year it had fallen to 0.474%. The bulk of that decline was due to lower immigration.

    It's true that a higher share of Chinese are returning than ten years ago, but it doesn't follow that there are specific US-related reasons to this. It has more to do with rising Chinese incomes. Chinese immigrants are returning home from the UK/Australia, too. The US is still very competitive in attracting Chinese students.

    Perhaps most strikingly of all, despite a burning tech and trade war with lots of racialised hysteria, Chinese students still increased their share of new students into the US last year. There was overall decline for most other groups, including for much poorer India. India's decline is instructive. It is because the Trump admin has made it harder and their economy is poorer, while US education costs get ever more exorbitant. All these factors are present in places like Philippines, Vietnam, across the Arab world too. Remove these bottlenecks and flows will explode. FYI, the top Apple chip designer is an Arab. Asia isn't the only place to scoop up talent.
    -
    Another thing one has to take into account is that the US green card system has become a hellish nightmare. 10 years wait is now the new normal. That discourages would-be immigrants. On top of huge and escalating student tuition fees. There may be more absolute numbers coming in these days from abroad to study than in the 1990s but it was way easier back then if you actually came.

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow. Including from China.
    -
    Critically, looking at overall flows can be misleading. As I outlined in my Israel post is that even though overall Israeli emigration is low, the emigration rate of the top 5%, and really the top 0.5%, has been escalating in recent years.

    This is all the more remarkable given that Israel has a very competitive high-tech industry, Israelis are not exactly known for being low on ethno-centrism and finally, Israel is one of the best-performing advanced countries in the last decade in terms of economic convergence. All these factors didn't just fail to mitigate brain-drain, the brain-drain got worse!

    Heiner Rindermann makes a point that is the top 5% of a country that is more relevant for its long-term innovation potential. Given the current racialised hysteria and Yellow Peril 2.0 propaganda, the US is shooting itself in the foot. But we cannot know if this kind of idiocy will last. Jake Sullivan, one of the top advisers on Biden's transition team, has been very vocal about the need to attract top Chinese students.

    If famously ethnocentric Israelis have so-so attachment to their home country, why would the Chinese? Engineers ultimately care more about having a big impact in their field. If the US continues to block critical Chinese technology imports, combined with ongoing US dominance at the highest tiers, why would the brightest Chinese engineers and scientists sacrifice their careers for lofty CCP propaganda goals if they'd be more welcome in the future again? I doubt it.
    -
    A few words about Taiwan. It's income per head is artificially low because of a massive current account surplus (>10% of GDP). If it would adjust downwards to South Korean levels, their nominal wages as well as per capita income would both sharply increase upwards. China's current account surplus is much more modest now, and is never going to get back to previous high levels without gigantic global pushback. That's why Taiwan isn't a suitable aim for China. You can't get away with their policies unless you're a tiny gnat - while also being under the US thumb. Both conditions are obviously false for China.
    -
    I see the usual suspects misunderstand the point about debt. They still interpret it as a solvency issue. As I remarked in the OP, solvency isn't on the table here. It's about what it says about China's domestic economy.

    Some China 'bulls' claim that China has already rebalanced its economy while pointing to its current account surplus, which went from almost 10% of GDP to hovering just around 1% in recent years. That's confusing two different aspects.

    The reason why China had to lower its CAB has more to do with its size than any rebalancing. China was a $2-3T economy back in 2008. It is now almost $15T. If it had kept the same current account surplus, even with a manipulated exchange rate, it would have been larger than everyone else combined and then some.

    Simply put, it was forced downwards, but it did so without significant internal rebalancing.

    https://i.imgur.com/YWSJK6K.png

    Due to lack of internal balancing, China has continued to rely on massive fixed-asset investment booms which are now clearly going into unproductive uses. This is why debt is exploding. The old economic model is obviously no longer working, as evidenced by the fact that China had a stable total debt-to-GDP ratio in previous decades. This radically changed from 2011.

    Are China's leaders aware of this problem? Short answer is yes. Wen Jiabao noted already back in 2007 that China's economy was severely unbalanced and vowed to fix it. He understood that the old model was on its last legs. As you can see on the chart above, not much rebalancing has occured. This wasn't because Wen was lying or was insincere. It's simply because these reforms are incredibly politically toxic to do. Even communist states have multiple powerful constituencies and they have managed to overpower any reform for almost 15 years now. Why wouldn't they succeed doing so in the future?
    -
    Nobody questions that China has high human capital, but high human capital alone in insufficient. North Korea is an obvious slam dunk on that simplistic argument. More closer to home, the persistent underperformance of Russia is another nail in that narrow-minded coffin. It's not geography or commodities. Australia is highly dependent on commodities, too, and is fairly isolated. Russians may not be as bright as Anglos but they should definitely punch above their "barely above Mexico" current status.

    In short, human capital is a necessary but insufficient prerequisite of being an advanced nation. Systems still matter a great deal.

    Replies: @128, @128, @mal, @songbird, @showmethereal, @Adûnâi

    If the US were to radically reform its higher education system, along with various work visas, both making the terms more generous, the visas easier to get and the costs of acquiring an education, massive new flows would follow.

    What you are saying is that you think it would be a strategic advantage for the US over China, if in the future, it had more Barack Obamas and Kamala Harrises. And they were probably the children of moderately intelligent people. The standards have fallen, in the decades since then.

    The US is a blank-slatist regime, with arguably the biggest education bubble in the world. Giving visas for people who obtain degrees, from degree mills, is just a way of laundering their stupidity, and low human capital, and of propping up this credentialist bubble, to make the middle class poorer and less fertile.

  225. Regarding modern images, I think the thing that holds back China’s image is their lack of cultural exports, their modern movies seem to suck compared to the old ones, especially the 00s movies and TV series, and nowadays it’s all beautiful dudes fighting with swords and shit. But they have the infrastructure and foundation to completely change this.

    Japan has an edge with cultural exports but it’s now slowing down because of outdated business models and their cucking to american/western liberals. As chinese get more patriotic/nationalist in defending their culture everywhere they go, japanese gets told to sit down and respect “black culture” in Japan by afro-americans, of course, this is related to the fact their government is America’s vassal.

    Technology-wise, both are trying hard to one-up each other, and China definitely has the edge on the sheer scale alone.

    Japan has much bigger problems going ahead, and they will continue to do so, as long as they still focus westward. They were right in modernizing back in the 19th century, now they are wrong in still believing da West is da best in the 21st century. The East/Asia is the future, at least for now.

  226. @Sinotibetan
    @songbird

    I don't know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians. I have friends who are very smart but they are not innovative, they are not passionate about new ideas. I don't know how to describe it.... There is not enough curiosity, less passionate about 'knowledge for knowledge' sake'?
    I have friends who scored and became top students in mathematics but years later they cannot even handle college algebra!
    When I teach some of my students and tried to instill some passion in the subject matter, they are more interested about what are the stuff they need to 'score' in the exams.

    Replies: @songbird, @Dmitry

    Here is very much on the “software” level, rather than relating to “hardware”.

    In Renaissance Florence, there was a genius living on every street. However, in 21st century Florence, there is no genius on any street. It’s not because of a genetic shift, but a different stage of history and culture. Renaissance Florence was producing geniuses, while modern Florence’s population is culturally sterile. Classical Athens had the greatest flourishing of genius in world history, but yet modern Greece is one of the world’s least intellectually interesting cultures.

    There’s not a genetic explanation for this, although blood can be one of many influences.

    If you look at works of an individual genius, they often exhibit the best qualities of their culture at that particular historical epoch. Genius of Hume – it’s of the empirical and skeptical 18th century personality, representative of his Scottish Enlightenment milieu. Genius of Kant – includes adding a German pedantry and thoroughness to the scepticism of earlier thinkers like Hume. They wouldn’t be the same writers in a different epoch/culture.

    Asians are a little smarter than European

    It depends which Asian nationalities and which European ones.

    Obviously Japan is already at the similar level as the advanced North-West European countries, in terms of the average education and culture level of the population.

    • Agree: utu
    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @128
    @Dmitry

    The Sinosphere (China, Korea, and Tokugawa Japan) would have been just fine if the West had left them alone in the mid-19th century.

    Replies: @Smith

    , @Suicidal_canadian
    @Dmitry

    Both of your examples have a racial basis. Greece has absorbed lots of foreign blood - Jews, gypsies, pakistanis, albanians, africans, arabs, ect.

    North Italy was the "whiter" side of Italy because of teutonic migration. The country is basically half arab and half german, but the northern italians are being encroached upon demographically.

    I know this is not politically correct, but the book Race or Mongrel by Schultz talks about the racial basis of Italian history. Very enlightening. It is on archive.org and is worth reading.

    , @Miville
    @Dmitry

    Greek literature is actually not less interesting nowadays than it was, I wouldn't say during the Greek classical era, but about year zero, which was not uninteresting at all. It just doesn't strike as much attention. Florence does not produces geniuses nowadays because the city does not have the same function. The regions around Florence produce quite a few number of very bright people but they congregate elsewhere in Italy.

  227. @Dmitry
    @Sinotibetan

    Here is very much on the "software" level, rather than relating to "hardware".

    In Renaissance Florence, there was a genius living on every street. However, in 21st century Florence, there is no genius on any street. It's not because of a genetic shift, but a different stage of history and culture. Renaissance Florence was producing geniuses, while modern Florence's population is culturally sterile. Classical Athens had the greatest flourishing of genius in world history, but yet modern Greece is one of the world's least intellectually interesting cultures.

    There's not a genetic explanation for this, although blood can be one of many influences.

    If you look at works of an individual genius, they often exhibit the best qualities of their culture at that particular historical epoch. Genius of Hume - it's of the empirical and skeptical 18th century personality, representative of his Scottish Enlightenment milieu. Genius of Kant - includes adding a German pedantry and thoroughness to the scepticism of earlier thinkers like Hume. They wouldn't be the same writers in a different epoch/culture.


    Asians are a little smarter than European
     
    It depends which Asian nationalities and which European ones.

    Obviously Japan is already at the similar level as the advanced North-West European countries, in terms of the average education and culture level of the population.

    Replies: @128, @Suicidal_canadian, @Miville

    The Sinosphere (China, Korea, and Tokugawa Japan) would have been just fine if the West had left them alone in the mid-19th century.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Smith
    @128

    No, they wouldn't.

    Isolationism has been proven to never once work.

    Qing China grows weaker as they isolate, same for Tokugawa Japan.

    The USSR, despite having a high population and the most resources in the world, still fell because it was isolated from the world's economy.

    Nowadays China has realized this idea, which is why their need to integrate into the world capitalist system and having as many allies as possible.

    No man, no country is an island, we must adapt as the world changes.

  228. @Eugene Norman
    @Thulean Friend

    Your analysis is dubious. China is still trading with Europe and Asia. It’s just created a new trading block with its neighbours and has created an investment pact with the EU. Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    Average per capita is at $10k, but incomes are bi-modal. There’s a lot of rural poor and a large middle and wealthy class.

    According to CNN (2019).


    A new report from Credit Suisse (CS) shows that wealth in China is ticking up, and the country now accounts for 100 million of the richest 10% of people in the world. There are 99 million Americans in the same category.
     

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

    The fact that it is “still trading” is an irrelevant point. All countries are trading.
    RCEP is a welcome step but as I noted previously, it lacks a big deficit country since most of the countries in there are surplus ones.

    Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.

    This is completely bonkers. China has *increased* its trade surplus despite the world going into a depression. That’s the exact opposite of “supplying demand”. And it shows you how China’s economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don’t even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.

    • Replies: @Astarte
    @Thulean Friend

    A trade area doesn’t necessarily need a big deficit country to increase its overall trade surplus, they can shift their purchases to each other as regulations converge and tariffs decrease, everyone’s exports becoming more competitive globally is its logical conclusion.
    World economy has become much more unbalanced, probably not China’s, the demand for goods, at least in the US, has rebounded due to stimuli, beyond the pre-pandemic level, while demand for services are struggling, the Chinese can’t travel abroad without risking being locked outside the country.

    , @Eugene Norman
    @Thulean Friend


    That’s the exact opposite of “supplying demand”. And it shows you how China’s economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don’t even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.
     
    “Imports surged 13.2% in September, returning to growth from a fall of 2.1% in August and much stronger than expectations for a 0.3% increase. The import strength was broad based for almost all of China's main trading partners.”

    “ The rise in imports pushed the trade surplus for September down to $37 billion, compared with $58.93 billion in August and lower than an expected $58.00 billion.”

    More at:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-idUSKBN26Y0BR

    So you will be apologising, right?

    Replies: @Thulean Friend

  229. @128
    @Dmitry

    The Sinosphere (China, Korea, and Tokugawa Japan) would have been just fine if the West had left them alone in the mid-19th century.

    Replies: @Smith

    No, they wouldn’t.

    Isolationism has been proven to never once work.

    Qing China grows weaker as they isolate, same for Tokugawa Japan.

    The USSR, despite having a high population and the most resources in the world, still fell because it was isolated from the world’s economy.

    Nowadays China has realized this idea, which is why their need to integrate into the world capitalist system and having as many allies as possible.

    No man, no country is an island, we must adapt as the world changes.

  230. @Voltarde
    China's governance model was inspired by Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew. The influence of that model explains things like the paternalistic "social credit' system; the lifetime leadership tenure granted Xi Jinping; intolerance of internal disorder; and the emphasis on first overseas higher education, then building up a first-class domestic higher education system, which in China's case will be unequalled in human history.

    The US has long turbocharged its economy by vacuuming up the most vigorous global smart fractions, but its cachet has been plummeting in recent years and if anything is set to accelerate given the neo-Maoist lunacy that has overtaken it. E.g., most Chinese graduate college students in the US began to repatriate as opposed to seeking to stay on about a decade ago now.
     
    The USA is abandoning college entrance examination testing while Chinese students work hard and prepare themselves for the rigorous "Gao Kao". If China wants even stronger economic growth, she should continue to improve real-time translation of English speech and text into Chinese, and open a New Foreign Concession under joint Chinese-Singaporean management, financed by Temasek. This would accelerate China's ability to attract the very best scientists and engineers in the world from regions like the Anglo-sphere and the EU, which are utterly destroying themselves.

    In the span of 25 years Shenzhen went from being a rural field to a world-class city larger than New York. Serious, intelligent, hardworking people accomplish things like that. China doesn't take orders from the Israeli government. China also doesn't export poverty or revolution; doesn't wage trillion-dollar "wars for democracy" under a rainbow flag; and doesn't promote criminal sociological nihilism (e.g., irreversible chemical castration and "bottom surgery" mutilation of children). China long ago abandoned foot-binding; now the west celebrates molestation of children that is even more repugnant.

    China would not be the preferred model of America's founders, but I suspect the latter would find more to admire in China's leadership than in the unserious, foolish, lazy SOBs currently running America (into the ground).

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Tyler Durden, @Daniel Chieh

    Ahhhh – you are one of the few on Unz that gets it. PR of China’s main model was not the US – nor was it Japan – nor Hong Kong – nor Taiwan – it was and is Singapore. Yes it learned from all the aforementioned – but it’s main model is Singapore.

  231. @AP
    @Eugene Norman


    Why assume that China maxes out at Taiwan’s GDP. Hong Kong has a GDP per capita of $49k. Singapore is at $64,500. Macau is at $89k. Depending on how China urbanises it could eventually reach those figures.
     
    These are obviously city points. It's like making assumptions about Russia's GDP based on Moscow, USA's based on New York, etc. Besides, Taipei is apparently rather rich:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/living-as-a-millionaire-in-taipei-taiwan-homes-lifestyle-photos-2019-5

    If one takes culture and genetics as a primary measure, Taiwan would be the model for eventual China, with a bonus upwards for Hong Kong/Shanghai/etc. So a slightly richer Taiwan with 1.4 billion people, versus a slightly poorer (due to poor immigration) America with 400 million people. This would suggest China with half of the USA's per capita GDP but 3.5 times the population.

    So China would end up with a little bit less than twice the USA's GDP. If the USA sticks together with the EU, Japan, India and maintains control of Latin America and ME, it will not be a Chinese world.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal, @Ray Caruso

    No – China wants to a larger version of Singapore – not “Taiwan”. If that was the case they would have unified already. Taiwan is too liberal and there is too much political folly. They prefer the order and conservatism of Singapore.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @128
    @showmethereal

    Singapore is actually overripe for a color revolution, Lee the Younger does not have nearly the same fortitude as Lee the Elder.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    , @AP
    @showmethereal

    Sure, but I did not mean to imply that the Chinese were trying to model themselves on Taiwan politically and socially, rather that Taiwan is a model of what China would be like in terms of per capita economic strength

    Replies: @showmethereal

  232. @JohnPlywood
    @songbird


    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.
     
    You have no idea what you're talking about.


    The Japanese were subdued and are still ruled to this day by the Ainu. All emporers of Japanese history carry the Ainu haplogroup D1:



    https://peaceandjustice.freeforums.net/thread/852/japanese-emperors-dna-haplogroup-d1b1a2



    A plurality of Japanese males today descend from Ainu men and non-Ainu East Asian women, the Ainu populations that never switched over to Japanese also all descend from Japanese women.


    This idea of Ainu as some sort of "conquered" group that has developed over the years, and become especially popular on anonymous message boards, has been totally annihilated by the genetic and archaelogical evidence. It is just another folklorish fabrication of history by simpletons that ignores the glaring and obvious fact that Japan is a layered mixed-race society with an Ainu ruling elite. Any oppression of Ainu in later times was minimal and done by people who were part Ainu themselves.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Sinotibetan

    What Songbird said about the Japanese subduing the Ainu is correct and what you said about the Japanese being mixed race(admixture of Yayoi = continental East Asian + Jomon = ancestors of Ainu) is also correct.
    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned). The rest are haplogroups commonly found in continental East Asians (likely Yayoi origin). The Japanese language is totally different from Ainu language(now said to be moribund and near extinction) and is likely brought by Yayoi migrants, or some form of language derived from Yayoi with Jomon substratum. What I am saying is that, the Japanese became a separate ethnic group with the blend of Yayoi and Jomon whereas the Jomons who did not admix with Yayoi became separate peoples called the Ainu.
    As to whether the Jomon during Japanese ethnogenesis subdued the Yayoi or vice versa, who knows? I am more inclined to think that the Yayoi migration(rather than invasion) was a rather gradual and ‘peaceful’ one, leading to intermarriages between local Jomon and migrant Yayoi and since the local chieftains would likely be Jomon, finally gave rise to the Japanese, with substantial Haplogroup D1 male ancestry and logically more in the elites(one local chieftain became emperor and sired many other aristocratic daimyo and warrior samurai, other local chieftains also evolved to daimyo and samurai), but certainly also substantial continental East Asian male haplogroups (60 to 70 percent Japanese males on average) in the population . The Japanese became more populous and technologically more advanced than the Jomon/Ainu due to agricultural techniques brought by the Yayoi. Then it became Japanese (mixed Yayoi-Jomon) subduing the Jomon/Ainu.
    If I may hypothesize an analogy:consider a USA in the not too distant future in which the population of White/European there has become a minority with current demographic trends. The country underwent Hispanization/Latin Americanization with widespread intermarriages giving predominantly phenotypically mestizoid like population. However the elites who led to this situation were originally white/European heritage, and remain elites, though admixed and mestizoid. The new ‘race’ borned out of this admixture is called the Amerikana race. There are some hard-core racialist Whites holding out in pockets within USA. The New Amerikana race, being more populous, decides on either assimilating or exterminating these recalcitrant remnant whites.
    Amerikana analogous to ‘Japanese’
    Whites analogous to ‘Ainu’
    Are the phenotypically mestizoid Amerikana elites (if you were to do Y Haplogroup analyses, considered as ‘European’ predominantly) considered ‘Whites’ then?
    Ethnic wars, ethnic admixtures, ethnogenesis of new ethnic groups are part of human history and prehistory…. Many ancient events likely remain unknown despite all kinds of scientific analyses.
    I rest my case.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    Oh I forgot, American English evolved into a creolized American English + Latin American Spanish + Black-American vernacular English: the Amerikana language, New lingua franca of the country.
    Sorry, just letting my imagination run wild LOL.

    , @JohnPlywood
    @Sinotibetan


    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned).
     
    As we can see, the most frequent haplogroup in East Japan, where the majority of Japanese live, is haplogroup D1a. None of the three subclades of O are more frequent than D1a. Of course, combining the three O subclades yields a higher result than D, but none of the individual O clades were more prolific than the singular D1a.

    Futhermore, D isn't the only Jomon haplogroup. C1 and C2 are found in Ainu and were present i the archipelago prior to Yayoi immigration; and I've never read anything linking these haplotypes to Yayoi, so the C1 and C2 in Japanese can be combined with D.

    https://okunomichi.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/east_asian_y-dna_haplogroups.jpg

    And the Ainu/Jomon haplotypes become EVEN MORE COMMON among the North Japanese who are supposed by you to have "subdued" the Ainu. Even though there is scant mtDNA contribution from Jomon/Ainu women to the north Japanese.


    So we can garner the following hypotheses from the genetic evidence:


    - Jomon males made the biggest singular contribution to the Japanese Y-DNA samples, and bout 50% of the total

    - Jomon female contribution to Japanese is comparatively tiny

    - Japanese emperors and most Daimyo clans carry the D1b haplogroup from North Japan

    - Japanese men "subdued" north Japan basically by marrying their wives to Ainu


    Which does not add up to any "subduing" of Ainu or Jomon in the traditional sense. And the funny thing is that this had all been predicted by the late 1980s by anthropologists:

    https://www.science-frontiers.com/sf065/sf065a01.htm


    The Samurai And The Ainu

    Findings by American anthropologist C. Loring Brace, University of Michigan, will surely be controversial in race conscious Japan. The eye of the predicted storm will be the Ainu, a "racially different" group of some 18,000 people now living on the northern island of Hokkaido. Pure-blooded Ainu are easy to spot: they have lighter skin, more body hair, and higher-bridged noses than most Japanese. Most Japanese tend to look down on the Ainu.

    Brace has studied the skeletons of about 1,100 Japanese, Ainu, and other Asian ethnic groups and has concluded that the revered samurai of Japan are actually descendants of the Ainu, not of the Yayoi from whom most modern Japanese are descended. In fact, Brace threw more fuel on the fire with:

    "Dr. Brace said this interpretation also explains why the facial features of the Japanese ruling class are so often unlike those of typical modern Japanese. The Ainu-related samurai achieved such power and prestige in medieval Japan that they intermarried with royality and nobility, passing on Jomon-Ainu blood in the upper classes, while other Japanese were primarily descended from the Yoyoi."

    The reactions of Japanese scientists have been muted so. One Japanese anthropologist did say to Brace," I hope you are wrong."

    The Ainu and their origin have always been rather mysterious, with some people claiming that the Ainu are really Caucasian or proto-Caucasian - in other words, "white." At present, Brace's study denies this interpretation.

     

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @britishbrainsize

  233. @Lot
    @rensselaer

    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has .... nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

    Replies: @Wency, @Blinky Bill, @last straw, @rensselaer, @showmethereal, @God's Fool

    “Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.”

    Silly comment… You haven’t been paying attention then. Go check all the NEV car makers and see how many of the top ones are Chinese now. Almost all not named Tesla. Go look which nation has the most valuable start up companies… It’s not the US anymore – and it’s certainly not Japan. It’s not India either… So guess…

    “We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China”

    More silliness. Japan spent centuries as the understudy of China. Often with resentment – but nonetheless the student. The reason Japan was able to invade China was because China was weakened by the other 7 nations of the 8 nation alliance. Once Japan saw what the west did to China – they decided to industrialize instead of keep following China. Would Japan ever dare to take on a peak level China??? Are you kidding?? They tried to take Korea centuries back and China stepped in and slapped Japan back.

    • Replies: @128
    @showmethereal

    So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

  234. @Sinotibetan
    @JohnPlywood

    What Songbird said about the Japanese subduing the Ainu is correct and what you said about the Japanese being mixed race(admixture of Yayoi = continental East Asian + Jomon = ancestors of Ainu) is also correct.
    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned). The rest are haplogroups commonly found in continental East Asians (likely Yayoi origin). The Japanese language is totally different from Ainu language(now said to be moribund and near extinction) and is likely brought by Yayoi migrants, or some form of language derived from Yayoi with Jomon substratum. What I am saying is that, the Japanese became a separate ethnic group with the blend of Yayoi and Jomon whereas the Jomons who did not admix with Yayoi became separate peoples called the Ainu.
    As to whether the Jomon during Japanese ethnogenesis subdued the Yayoi or vice versa, who knows? I am more inclined to think that the Yayoi migration(rather than invasion) was a rather gradual and 'peaceful' one, leading to intermarriages between local Jomon and migrant Yayoi and since the local chieftains would likely be Jomon, finally gave rise to the Japanese, with substantial Haplogroup D1 male ancestry and logically more in the elites(one local chieftain became emperor and sired many other aristocratic daimyo and warrior samurai, other local chieftains also evolved to daimyo and samurai), but certainly also substantial continental East Asian male haplogroups (60 to 70 percent Japanese males on average) in the population . The Japanese became more populous and technologically more advanced than the Jomon/Ainu due to agricultural techniques brought by the Yayoi. Then it became Japanese (mixed Yayoi-Jomon) subduing the Jomon/Ainu.
    If I may hypothesize an analogy:consider a USA in the not too distant future in which the population of White/European there has become a minority with current demographic trends. The country underwent Hispanization/Latin Americanization with widespread intermarriages giving predominantly phenotypically mestizoid like population. However the elites who led to this situation were originally white/European heritage, and remain elites, though admixed and mestizoid. The new 'race' borned out of this admixture is called the Amerikana race. There are some hard-core racialist Whites holding out in pockets within USA. The New Amerikana race, being more populous, decides on either assimilating or exterminating these recalcitrant remnant whites.
    Amerikana analogous to 'Japanese'
    Whites analogous to 'Ainu'
    Are the phenotypically mestizoid Amerikana elites (if you were to do Y Haplogroup analyses, considered as 'European' predominantly) considered 'Whites' then?
    Ethnic wars, ethnic admixtures, ethnogenesis of new ethnic groups are part of human history and prehistory.... Many ancient events likely remain unknown despite all kinds of scientific analyses.
    I rest my case.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood

    Oh I forgot, American English evolved into a creolized American English + Latin American Spanish + Black-American vernacular English: the Amerikana language, New lingua franca of the country.
    Sorry, just letting my imagination run wild LOL.

  235. @showmethereal
    @AP

    No - China wants to a larger version of Singapore - not "Taiwan". If that was the case they would have unified already. Taiwan is too liberal and there is too much political folly. They prefer the order and conservatism of Singapore.

    Replies: @128, @AP

    Singapore is actually overripe for a color revolution, Lee the Younger does not have nearly the same fortitude as Lee the Elder.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @128

    Sad but true - there are forces seeking to liberalize Singapore which will destroy the exact things that made Singapore a success in the first place. Loosening of social mores and idiotic political wrangling are being pushed. Hopefully Singapore can hold out. Ironically a strong China is the best defense... Which is sort of what Lee Kwan Yew was referring to in the video someone posted above (though he was speaking more economically and militarily).

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

  236. @showmethereal
    @Lot

    "Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota."

    Silly comment... You haven't been paying attention then. Go check all the NEV car makers and see how many of the top ones are Chinese now. Almost all not named Tesla. Go look which nation has the most valuable start up companies... It's not the US anymore - and it's certainly not Japan. It's not India either... So guess...

    "We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China"

    More silliness. Japan spent centuries as the understudy of China. Often with resentment - but nonetheless the student. The reason Japan was able to invade China was because China was weakened by the other 7 nations of the 8 nation alliance. Once Japan saw what the west did to China - they decided to industrialize instead of keep following China. Would Japan ever dare to take on a peak level China??? Are you kidding?? They tried to take Korea centuries back and China stepped in and slapped Japan back.

    Replies: @128

    So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @128

    This is because generally speaking, East Asians within the Sinosphere, whether Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese or Koreans have an inferiority complex - they think (and there is some basis for such thinking) that whites(Europeans or American whites) are superior in wealth, culture(European classical music, 'high culture', European art and architectures of the past), intelligence(Western philosophical ideas and political theories, scientific and technological advancements), and aesthetics. For millennia, the Han Chinese valued intelligence, high culture and aesthetics. They exported their culture to the Koreans, Japanese and Vietnamese who were initially less developed. So, the Chinese thought they were and will always remain the most civilized and cultured in the world. They call their country the Middle Kingdom and others were considered barbarians, and inferior. The era of European imperialism brought reality and shattered all Chinese delusions (of grandeur, perhaps? ) of themselves. The European 'barbarians' shattered whatever racial or civilizational pride they had, nope these Western 'barbarians' were cultured, smart, rich, sophisticated and won all wars they had with the Qing Dynasty. Nevermind that the Qing rulers were not even Han Chinese, this by itself was a sign of weakness of Han Chinese civilization at that time.
    So, any Western product or idea already has an edge over Asian made products or ideas in the mind of an average East Asian.
    Being Western made is already good branding, because in the Asian psyche(generally speaking) :-
    Western made products/idea =can be trusted, superior, better quality than similar Asian made products /idea
    Hopefully this kind of inferior complex thinking will change in the future if we Asians can be just as innovative, just as scientifically and technologically sophisticated as the West. It's us Asians developing the self confidence that we can indeed be just as good or better.
    So, Apple laptops (and many Western products, including being a tourist to Europe or USA!) are status symbols in Asia. Doesn't equate to it actually being necessarily better than similar Asian made products.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh

    , @showmethereal
    @128

    "So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?"

    Because it is a status symbol... the same way an Audi or Mercedes is... Why is that strange? chinese are not xenophobic when it comes to brands... But I tell you what - if Apple were to pull all of it's production out of China - you would see how quickly that would change.

  237. @songbird
    @Sinotibetan


    I don’t know if we Asians are a little smarter than Europeans. Perhaps average IQ, maybe? I suspect that the smartest Europeans are way smarter than the smartest Asians.
     
    I think it is possible that Europeans might be a bit dumber on average, but have more geniuses at the high end. But I am agnostic about it. If it is true - we are rapidly losing this advantage due to dysgenics.

    Japanese seem more refined to me, and I wonder why this is so. Maybe, that is the extra few IQ points? Or maybe it is different personality factors? Or maybe, Europeans have been brought down by diversity - that they've been influenced by MENA people to lower standards of behavior? Whatever the explanation is, I think it is something real and observable.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    Interesting observation about the Japanese. Unfortunately I have no answers to these questions. Earlier on, the Japanese imported Han dynasty and Tang dynasty culture + technology and they improved on them. Later, they learned modern science and technology, and improved on them. Other nations may innovate, the Japanese may adopt but improve on those innovations.
    About Europeans, I think the explanation is likely quite complex. Current political and cultural elites in the West and Europe tend to try to uplift non European cultures – especially African and Islamic ones – and focus on the negative aspects of European colonialism /imperialism. It’s a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it’s this ‘moral superiority complex’ of progressive elites to atone for ‘white guilt’ of European imperialism?
    To me, a descendant of ‘the colonialized’ , let bygones be bygones about European imperialism – it was not all bad, and it was not all good for both Europeans and the colonialized peoples. I want to be thankful of the good aspects – I am exposed to British culture, the British left a government and legal system for my country and brought technological and scientific advancement. A lot of bad things were done by British imperialists, but a lot of good were done too. And I think the British (sorry to the French,Dutch and Spaniards) did try to develop their colonies for the better (at least I can say this is true about my own country).
    I think the Europeans had great cultures and scientific and technological contributions to humanity. Their elites should stop undermining this legacy.

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Sinotibetan


    It’s a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it’s this ‘moral superiority complex’ of progressive elites to atone for ‘white guilt’ of European imperialism?
     
    Yes, I think the culture has been harmed, from the elite level. In my opinion though, it doesn't have anything to do with imperialism - that is more of an excuse. See the modern transformation of Ireland, a country with a long history of being invaded and oppressed. I think it comes from the instinct of egalitarianism - perhaps useful to a certain extent in past times, but kind of short-circuited or made haywire by the presence of diversity, at levels never experienced before.

    If you go back in time, before the population of nonwhites in the West exploded, you'll see a lot of aspirational messaging in the culture. (say, in the 1980s) There was an appeal to the general public to achieve wealth or success, or to become higher class, or more refined. Kind of like, pre-industrial times, when people aspired to better manners, hence words like "vulgar" or "villain", referencing low-class behavior.

    What is strange is that today, these messages are practically gone. Wealthy whites have become more villainized. And many/most of the successful people shown on TV (as actors in commercials) are blacks. The aspirational messaging seems to be directed almost entirely at blacks, even in a European country like the UK.

    Also, I think a big part of it is that Europeans are no longer assertive in projecting their own culture. We hear China being mocked a little, for not having the cultural footprint of Japan, but how are Europeans doing in 2020? We are resting on our laurels, our past achievements. Most of our culture, whether in America or Europe, has been taken over by diversity messaging. There is also a lot of Jewish influence in the media, and they don't seem to have the same root values or attachment to European history or mythology.
  238. @last straw
    @Lot


    “ Chinese are more entrepreneurial and creative”

    Those Chinese “entrepreneurs” tend to buy Western brands like Westinghouse and Thinkpad, not create their own like Toyota.

    As for creative, no large nation has a more pathetic lack of cultural exports than China. Japan had sushi and Nintendo and anime, among other things. China has …. nothing.

    We had a Japan v China test in WWII, it didn’t go well for China.

     

    Your view about China is rather obsolete. Toyota is so passe. China's EV manufacturers such as Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng,, BYD,, and innovative battery makers such as CATL will be the household names in the future.

    As for culture exportation, its probably a lagging indicator like the Nobel Prizes. Chinese food is quite popular. There are plenty Chinese TV series on NetFlix already.

    Who cares about WW2 anymore? Japan had a 70 year head-start over China since the Meiji Restoration in 1866, that's all.

    Replies: @d dan, @Blinky Bill, @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    I made similar points… One person brought up videogames as an example. Well one of the most famous video games out of Japan is a character named Mario – who is an Italian Plumber. He’s not Japanese….
    Mr. Miyagi was a very popular move character… He taught Italian American “Daniel-san”. Well many seemed to miss – that aside from Okinawans not really considering themselves Japanese – in Karate Kid Part 2 – Mr. Miyagi explains to Daniel when they went to his village that Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before.

    • Replies: @last straw
    @showmethereal

    A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. Causal observers just do not realize that China is changing at neck-breaking speed in recent years. China not only has NEV makers, they also have first-class EV battery makers such as BYD, CATL, and SVolt that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies. Both CATL and SVolt are planning to build gigafactories in Germany that will provide batteries for hundreds of thousands EVs in Europe each year.

    Replies: @d dan, @showmethereal

    , @d dan
    @showmethereal


    "Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before."
     
    Jujutsu, another popular Japanese martial arts, was also from Chinese 柔道 and 柔术. Traditional Japanese garment kimono was introduced from China around 300AD. Same for Japanese architecture, origami (art and science of paper folding), tea drinking ritual, religion/philosophies (Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism, Zen 禪), Go (Weiqi 围棋, ancient board game of surrounding that reputes to be more difficult to solve than Chess for AI researchers), kanji and calligraphy, traditional Japanese painting, ikebana flower arrangement (花道 or 華道), interior designs and decorations, etc. Even instant noodle was invented by a Japanese Chinese called Momofuku Ando (安藤百福 or 吳百福).

    There was however, almost zero thing that went from Japan to China in ancient time.

    Further comment on ten areas of Chinese soft power:
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/#comment-3738271

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

  239. @128
    @AlexanderGrozny

    Tesla > BYD or whatever Chinese electric car, how is anyone really going to dispute this? Also how many Chinese watch Netflix?

    Replies: @AlexanderGrozny, @showmethereal

    What makes Tesla better??? Do you have any clue??? You are just going off hype. Build quality? Reliability? Go check Consumer Reports what is so great about Tesla. Tesla is starting to work with CATL for a reason. Ask yourself why they aren’t working with a US battery company? Ask why they are shifting business from a Japanese one. Ask yourself why Tesla is building out their largest foreign R&D in China and not in Japan…

    And you missed the point. The idea that a lot of Chinese series and movies are on Netflix is because non Chinese watch them now. Yikes!!

  240. @showmethereal
    @last straw

    I made similar points... One person brought up videogames as an example. Well one of the most famous video games out of Japan is a character named Mario - who is an Italian Plumber. He's not Japanese....
    Mr. Miyagi was a very popular move character... He taught Italian American "Daniel-san". Well many seemed to miss - that aside from Okinawans not really considering themselves Japanese - in Karate Kid Part 2 - Mr. Miyagi explains to Daniel when they went to his village that Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn't know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films - was also a Japanese import from China - who had them for centuries before.

    Replies: @last straw, @d dan

    A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. Causal observers just do not realize that China is changing at neck-breaking speed in recent years. China not only has NEV makers, they also have first-class EV battery makers such as BYD, CATL, and SVolt that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies. Both CATL and SVolt are planning to build gigafactories in Germany that will provide batteries for hundreds of thousands EVs in Europe each year.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @d dan
    @last straw


    "A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. "
     
    Today, Chinese are filing the most patents in the world. Even many of the patents being filed in US and Europe have Chinese co-inventors' names. Not surprisingly, many people in the West start to believe that patents are useless - and patents are not a sign of inventiveness nor results of creative efforts.

    Chinese are also publishing more and more scientific papers, surpassing most nations (including US) in many areas. Co-incidentally, many Westerners believe that most scientific papers today are insignificant and lame. Some even believe there is no more important scientific knowledge to be discovered.

    Chinese are making many engineering breakthroughs and innovations in infrastructure projects, building bigger, longer, higher, greener, stronger structures in the most difficult, extreme and inhospitable places. Increasingly, Western media comment that they are white elephants, debt traps, of questionable values or low quality projects.

    Two years ago, I read a journalist reviewing the status of Chinese space program. He noted Chinese has been to make independent progress in all areas, even going beyond American, Russian and European in some. His conclusion: space program has become too mundane and inconsequential for society.

    In the eyes of many, it sounds like Chinese always go to the wrong areas, always a follower, and never do anything right.

    Replies: @Tyler Durden

    , @showmethereal
    @last straw

    Correct... BYD is also bringing innovation to batteries. They are doing so in buses and passenger cars now.

  241. • Replies: @showmethereal
    @128

    You didn't reply directly so I didn't see this... But you realize Panasonic has been Tesla's supplier from the start. The reality is though that it is partnering with CATL (and LG Chem) for a reason.... CATL is moving much faster than Panasonic nowadays...

    Replies: @128

  242. @last straw
    @showmethereal

    A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. Causal observers just do not realize that China is changing at neck-breaking speed in recent years. China not only has NEV makers, they also have first-class EV battery makers such as BYD, CATL, and SVolt that are at the cutting edge of one of the most important EV technologies. Both CATL and SVolt are planning to build gigafactories in Germany that will provide batteries for hundreds of thousands EVs in Europe each year.

    Replies: @d dan, @showmethereal

    “A lot of people have no idea that China is full of innovators and entrepreneurs nowadays. “

    Today, Chinese are filing the most patents in the world. Even many of the patents being filed in US and Europe have Chinese co-inventors’ names. Not surprisingly, many people in the West start to believe that patents are useless – and patents are not a sign of inventiveness nor results of creative efforts.

    Chinese are also publishing more and more scientific papers, surpassing most nations (including US) in many areas. Co-incidentally, many Westerners believe that most scientific papers today are insignificant and lame. Some even believe there is no more important scientific knowledge to be discovered.

    Chinese are making many engineering breakthroughs and innovations in infrastructure projects, building bigger, longer, higher, greener, stronger structures in the most difficult, extreme and inhospitable places. Increasingly, Western media comment that they are white elephants, debt traps, of questionable values or low quality projects.

    Two years ago, I read a journalist reviewing the status of Chinese space program. He noted Chinese has been to make independent progress in all areas, even going beyond American, Russian and European in some. His conclusion: space program has become too mundane and inconsequential for society.

    In the eyes of many, it sounds like Chinese always go to the wrong areas, always a follower, and never do anything right.

    • Agree: reiner Tor
    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Tyler Durden
    @d dan

    The Chinese drive forward where the roads have already been paved. They are not trailblazers and never have been.

    That the Chinese never discovered anything--not even Australia--is evidence of the profound lack of curiosity in the Chinese population. Not a single element or star was discovered by the Chinese. Not even the highest peaks of Tibet were climbed by the Chinese. Westerners explored and mapped China more thoroughly than the Chinese. By 1900, Americans and Europeans knew more about China than the Chinese government.

    If China is doing something, you can bet your house it was done before.

    With respect to infrastructure, all the important players are from USA/Europe. The Chinese are just laborers and low level engineers on these projects. Even the chief engineers and project managers are usually from Netherlands, Germany, UK, Australia, Canada, and US. Nearly every major skyscraper in China was designed by Western firms. If China looks a lot like the West, it's because Western brains are behind every inch of Chinese progress.

    Replies: @utu, @Blinky Bill, @britishbrainsize, @Chinaman, @KA

  243. @showmethereal
    @AP

    No - China wants to a larger version of Singapore - not "Taiwan". If that was the case they would have unified already. Taiwan is too liberal and there is too much political folly. They prefer the order and conservatism of Singapore.

    Replies: @128, @AP

    Sure, but I did not mean to imply that the Chinese were trying to model themselves on Taiwan politically and socially, rather that Taiwan is a model of what China would be like in terms of per capita economic strength

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @AP

    Oh ok - now I understand.... Though in terms of per capita that would be immensely tough since the population on the mainland is soooo much larger. I would give you Fujian province. Fujian passed Taiwan this year in GDP - but of course with a larger population it is lower per capita. But Fujian still has a higher share of rural population also. As it urbanizes it will reach parity per capita (compare Shanghai and the whole of Taiwan... urban Shanghai has a high per capita GDP and life expectancy in comparison to the whole island - but is similar when comparing just Taipei). Many Taiwan people already work in Xiamen for example. The quality of life and life expectancy there matches Taiwan cities and has the same Hokkien presence.

  244. @showmethereal
    @last straw

    I made similar points... One person brought up videogames as an example. Well one of the most famous video games out of Japan is a character named Mario - who is an Italian Plumber. He's not Japanese....
    Mr. Miyagi was a very popular move character... He taught Italian American "Daniel-san". Well many seemed to miss - that aside from Okinawans not really considering themselves Japanese - in Karate Kid Part 2 - Mr. Miyagi explains to Daniel when they went to his village that Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn't know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films - was also a Japanese import from China - who had them for centuries before.

    Replies: @last straw, @d dan

    “Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before.”

    Jujutsu, another popular Japanese martial arts, was also from Chinese 柔道 and 柔术. Traditional Japanese garment kimono was introduced from China around 300AD. Same for Japanese architecture, origami (art and science of paper folding), tea drinking ritual, religion/philosophies (Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism, Zen 禪), Go (Weiqi 围棋, ancient board game of surrounding that reputes to be more difficult to solve than Chess for AI researchers), kanji and calligraphy, traditional Japanese painting, ikebana flower arrangement (花道 or 華道), interior designs and decorations, etc. Even instant noodle was invented by a Japanese Chinese called Momofuku Ando (安藤百福 or 吳百福).

    There was however, almost zero thing that went from Japan to China in ancient time.

    Further comment on ten areas of Chinese soft power:
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/#comment-3738271

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @d dan

    Agree.
    So many cultural aspects of the Japanese were imported from Tang dynasty China, and to a lesser extend from the Sui and Han dynasties.
    Most Japanese vocabulary up to 60 percent, are of Chinese origin, and about 20 percent are used frequently in daily interactions in Japan.
    The former Imperial capital Kyoto(Heian-Kyo) and Nara(Heijo-kyo) were smaller replicas of the Tang dynasty capital Chang'An...
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/7d8a58ac-7482-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35
    It's too bad that after the An Lushan rebellion, all the palace complex in Chang'An was in ruins, and subsequently totally destroyed. So many palace complexes and cultural heights of past Han and Song dynasties are regretfully gone.
    Japanese culture is like modified and perfected (to Japanese tastes) Tang dynasty culture.

    , @showmethereal
    @d dan

    Indeed... Though you left out musical instruments that the Japanese adapted from China...

    And yeah - even the quintessential martial art tied to Japan ' Ninjitsu - was based on Chinese military manuals.

  245. @Lot
    @Anon

    "IQ Scores Only Measure How Good Someone is at Taking Tests"

    I am not saying that, so you don't need to post a refutation.

    I am saying that for any given level of intelligence, NE Asians will do best on IQ tests and blacks worst, with whites in the middle, due to non-intelligence personality factors.

    And I did say and agree these personality factors correlate with IQ, very strongly in fact. That's why this isn't a big deal for most IQ test applications.

    But if you want to compare IQs scores of races, you're going to overstate Asian and understate black g relative to whites.

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Replies: @A123, @songbird, @Sinotibetan, @EldnahYm, @rensselaer

    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents, not setting up totalitarian communist states, and having a very high per capita GDP.

    Much of the continental territorial conquests, particularly in North America and Australasia, were against very low population hunter-gatherers that were extremely vulnerable to disease. The Romans couldn’t counquer the Parthians and were restricted to the Mediterranean due to Chinese technology:

    Whether or not the things you mention above are “practical tests of intelligence” is really a matter of perspective. For example, European imperialism enriched a small minority of whites at the time in the short term, but the costs have been tremendous and extend to the present in the multicultural, multiracial quagmire. You could say that isolationism and turning inward might have been the more “intelligent” long term strategy. This also goes for totalitarian communism and high per capita GDP. It’s evident by now that pursuing liberalism and high economic growth and consumption have their own long term costs, and depending on one’s perspective, is more damaging and worse and thus less “intelligent” than communism and lower economic growth.

  246. @Europe Europa
    I've noticed that when people talk about perceived Russian, German or Chinese war crimes/massacres, they beat around the bush about it. They say oh that was the "Nazis, Communists, Maoists", etc. Few ever say "the Germans did that", or "the Russians did that", it's always the "Nazis" or the "Soviets", etc.

    Whereas if they're talking about perceived British war crimes/massacres, they usually just say "That was the British/English".

    In fact even when talking about Japanese war crimes most refer to it as "Imperial Japan" and usually keep referencing the Emperor in an attempt to put distance between Japan's war crimes and the average Japanese person.

    In the case of Russia, Germany and China, this is done to remove culpability from the average person in those countries, whereas no such consideration is made for Britain, the implication is usually that all British/English people are equally culpable for perceived crimes committed by the British Empire, from the working classes to the aristocracy. There's no beating around the bush about who was responsible. I find the mentality difference there quite interesting.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @reiner Tor

    German war crimes are often called… German. Soviet war crimes are also often called Russian, especially in countries which were under Soviet occupation. Regarding the Chinese, those crimes were committed against their own population, so calling them Chinese crimes wouldn’t be very informative. (This latter is true of Soviet crimes within the USSR.)

    Also, Britain has basically the same form of government as it had during the Empire. It is called the same thing. Even the ideology is nominally unchanged. (Though it did change…) So you cannot really call it anything else. What would be your proposal instead of British, even to avoid the repetition of a word?

  247. @Sinotibetan
    @Europe Europa

    Perhaps it is because of the way these regimes were named?
    Nazi Germany, so not Germans, but the Nazis
    Communist China or Maoist Regime in China, so not Chinese but Communist China or Maoist
    Soviet Union, so not Russians but the Soviets(not totally inaccurate because Russia was but one of the constituents)
    But, unfortunately, British Empire, so the British?
    I don't think the Japanese escaped being named for the ww2 atrocities?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Eugene Norman, @reiner Tor

    Of course the Japanese didn’t escape. But the Germans didn’t escape it either.

  248. @Blinky Bill
    @Kent Nationalist


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EV8C4qsUwAA-vcO.jpg

    https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRMM_Tq5clvmN6KSIO8RI8f29Vs5j6A9b4Hew&usqp.jpg

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03061/Joshua-Wong_3061756b.jpg

    https://hongkongfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/chrome_2017-05-02_16-00-24.jpg

    https://i.redd.it/q9lx80mq5z351.jpg

    Mother Nature Protests!

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    That’s just Wong.

    • LOL: Kent Nationalist
  249. @songbird
    @Kent Nationalist


    Hilarious that you use this as an example when Chinese colonised Taiwan after Europeans.
     
    There were probably some political factors at play. I think a lot of people have trouble understanding how big China was, and how difficult it was to rule a country that big, before industrialization. In 1600, China had a population of about 160 million - no railroads, no telegraph. The empire was unwieldy. The emperors were not seeking overseas colonies, possibly since they saw any new conquest might lead to the formation of new centers of power to disrupt their kingdom - new warlords, or pirate fleets.

    By contrast, in 1600, the Dutch Republic had a population of about 1.5 million. That's about 1/106th of the population of China - much easier to rule. So compact that, today, about half of their territory was reclaimed from the sea.

    Nobody disputes that the Age of Exploration was a supreme European accomplishment, but it seems rather silly to count the separate conquests during this era, as thought they were separate ages that proved Europeans are inherently better at conquest, and not that they were supreme during this single era, which expired. The Vikings landed in North America - they did not conquer it - because they were not part of this era.

    The Dutch themselves were defeated or driven off more than once by the Chinese, before they took over Taiwan. They were driven off at Penghu, and defeated by the Ming navy off Liaoluo Bay. So, I'm not sure that one can say that they were militarily superior. And, of course, the Chinese were on Taiwan before the Dutch, who recorded the presence of about 1500, when they arrived.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist

    How many times were Chinese fleets driven off the coast of Zeeland?

    • Replies: @songbird
    @Kent Nationalist

    The Age of Exploration is over. What advantages that existed back then, fleetingly, have been eroded. Today, the Chinese manufacture our globes and have their own version of GPS.

    Asians have also accumulated some exploratory firsts. Chinese had the first probe to land on the dark side of the moon, and Japanese had the first landing on an asteroid.

  250. @mal
    @Mr. Hack

    90% of Canada lives within like 100 miles of US border. Where Russia has at least bad roads Canada has none on the account of nobody living at those latitudes. If you want to go Caribou hunting in Canada you need to take an airplane. In Russia a 4X4 will probably get you where you need to be if the season is right, even far north.

    So I don't think Canada and Russia are directly comparable - Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    Replies: @Rahan

    So I don’t think Canada and Russia are directly comparable – Canada is very compressed in the south, so they have easier time building and maintaining roads.

    Likewise modern Canada in on an eternal free ride concerning its safety in a military sense. Its only land border is a well-intentioned superpower.

    In the new future, who knows, everything seems in flux these days. But up to now that’s how it worked.

    • Agree: mal
  251. @songbird
    @Lot


    This is also a major reason why NE Asians, despite testing better than whites, so consistently underperform whites in the important practical tests of intelligence, like inventing things, conquering other continents
     
    The Japanese were doing a pretty good job. Who disputes that they would have been able to subdue the natives, had not larger, modern powers intervened? The Japanese subdued the Ainu, and the Chinese subdued the natives of Taiwan. Heck, even Indonesians rule over Papuans.

    setting up totalitarian communist states
     
    They had help setting up those states from Europeans, and from others.

    At any rate, we are a long way from the remarkable accomplishments of the Victorians. The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100.

    Personally, I don't find it too hard to believe that Asians might be a little smarter. For one thing, they have been experiencing dysgenics for a shorter time frame.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood, @AlexanderGrozny, @Levtraro

    The average IQ of the UK is projected to be 85 by 2100

    Assuming this is coming from statistically solid projections, perhaps what matters is not that the average IQ is falling, but that the standard deviation of IQ is rising. Imagine having cheap and stupid labour under a super smart elite, imagine being sure that your elite offspring will lord over others indefinitely because the lower classes don’t spawn smart kids, no competition for your progeny. That sounds like a plan.

    • Replies: @AlexanderGrozny
    @Levtraro

    It isn't at all true though. Britain's average IQ by 2100 will be at least 110.

  252. @128
    @showmethereal

    So why do Chinese TV shows all show people using Apple laptops as a status symbol?

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

    This is because generally speaking, East Asians within the Sinosphere, whether Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese or Koreans have an inferiority complex – they think (and there is some basis for such thinking) that whites(Europeans or American whites) are superior in wealth, culture(European classical music, ‘high culture’, European art and architectures of the past), intelligence(Western philosophical ideas and political theories, scientific and technological advancements), and aesthetics. For millennia, the Han Chinese valued intelligence, high culture and aesthetics. They exported their culture to the Koreans, Japanese and Vietnamese who were initially less developed. So, the Chinese thought they were and will always remain the most civilized and cultured in the world. They call their country the Middle Kingdom and others were considered barbarians, and inferior. The era of European imperialism brought reality and shattered all Chinese delusions (of grandeur, perhaps? ) of themselves. The European ‘barbarians’ shattered whatever racial or civilizational pride they had, nope these Western ‘barbarians’ were cultured, smart, rich, sophisticated and won all wars they had with the Qing Dynasty. Nevermind that the Qing rulers were not even Han Chinese, this by itself was a sign of weakness of Han Chinese civilization at that time.
    So, any Western product or idea already has an edge over Asian made products or ideas in the mind of an average East Asian.
    Being Western made is already good branding, because in the Asian psyche(generally speaking) :-
    Western made products/idea =can be trusted, superior, better quality than similar Asian made products /idea
    Hopefully this kind of inferior complex thinking will change in the future if we Asians can be just as innovative, just as scientifically and technologically sophisticated as the West. It’s us Asians developing the self confidence that we can indeed be just as good or better.
    So, Apple laptops (and many Western products, including being a tourist to Europe or USA!) are status symbols in Asia. Doesn’t equate to it actually being necessarily better than similar Asian made products.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Sinotibetan

    The prestige of prestige products is a lagging indicator. I’m pretty sure that chinaware made in China or original Chinese silk still enjoyed higher prestige than European equivalents long after Europe has overtaken China. If for no other reason, then because they were more expensive.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Sinotibetan

    Besides the ethnic association of quality or status, its been found that given two items of differing place and without much more information to go by, customers often just buy the more expensive of the two items since price is seen as an indicator as quality. Freakonomics wrote about it in an experiment where they were able to sell old watches simply by vastly increasing their prices - without any other information, the exotic name and high price of the old watches made them purchased at much higher rates when they were previously ignored.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  253. @d dan
    @showmethereal


    "Karate was developed by his ancestors after they went to China and learned Chinese martial arts. Most wouldn’t know the bansai tree that became the rage in the US after the Karate Kid films – was also a Japanese import from China – who had them for centuries before."
     
    Jujutsu, another popular Japanese martial arts, was also from Chinese 柔道 and 柔术. Traditional Japanese garment kimono was introduced from China around 300AD. Same for Japanese architecture, origami (art and science of paper folding), tea drinking ritual, religion/philosophies (Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism, Zen 禪), Go (Weiqi 围棋, ancient board game of surrounding that reputes to be more difficult to solve than Chess for AI researchers), kanji and calligraphy, traditional Japanese painting, ikebana flower arrangement (花道 or 華道), interior designs and decorations, etc. Even instant noodle was invented by a Japanese Chinese called Momofuku Ando (安藤百福 or 吳百福).

    There was however, almost zero thing that went from Japan to China in ancient time.

    Further comment on ten areas of Chinese soft power:
    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-will-kill-millions-crater-the-world-economy/#comment-3738271

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @showmethereal

    Agree.
    So many cultural aspects of the Japanese were imported from Tang dynasty China, and to a lesser extend from the Sui and Han dynasties.
    Most Japanese vocabulary up to 60 percent, are of Chinese origin, and about 20 percent are used frequently in daily interactions in Japan.
    The former Imperial capital Kyoto(Heian-Kyo) and Nara(Heijo-kyo) were smaller replicas of the Tang dynasty capital Chang’An…
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/7d8a58ac-7482-11e6-b60a-de4532d5ea35
    It’s too bad that after the An Lushan rebellion, all the palace complex in Chang’An was in ruins, and subsequently totally destroyed. So many palace complexes and cultural heights of past Han and Song dynasties are regretfully gone.
    Japanese culture is like modified and perfected (to Japanese tastes) Tang dynasty culture.

  254. @Sinotibetan
    @128

    This is because generally speaking, East Asians within the Sinosphere, whether Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese or Koreans have an inferiority complex - they think (and there is some basis for such thinking) that whites(Europeans or American whites) are superior in wealth, culture(European classical music, 'high culture', European art and architectures of the past), intelligence(Western philosophical ideas and political theories, scientific and technological advancements), and aesthetics. For millennia, the Han Chinese valued intelligence, high culture and aesthetics. They exported their culture to the Koreans, Japanese and Vietnamese who were initially less developed. So, the Chinese thought they were and will always remain the most civilized and cultured in the world. They call their country the Middle Kingdom and others were considered barbarians, and inferior. The era of European imperialism brought reality and shattered all Chinese delusions (of grandeur, perhaps? ) of themselves. The European 'barbarians' shattered whatever racial or civilizational pride they had, nope these Western 'barbarians' were cultured, smart, rich, sophisticated and won all wars they had with the Qing Dynasty. Nevermind that the Qing rulers were not even Han Chinese, this by itself was a sign of weakness of Han Chinese civilization at that time.
    So, any Western product or idea already has an edge over Asian made products or ideas in the mind of an average East Asian.
    Being Western made is already good branding, because in the Asian psyche(generally speaking) :-
    Western made products/idea =can be trusted, superior, better quality than similar Asian made products /idea
    Hopefully this kind of inferior complex thinking will change in the future if we Asians can be just as innovative, just as scientifically and technologically sophisticated as the West. It's us Asians developing the self confidence that we can indeed be just as good or better.
    So, Apple laptops (and many Western products, including being a tourist to Europe or USA!) are status symbols in Asia. Doesn't equate to it actually being necessarily better than similar Asian made products.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh

    The prestige of prestige products is a lagging indicator. I’m pretty sure that chinaware made in China or original Chinese silk still enjoyed higher prestige than European equivalents long after Europe has overtaken China. If for no other reason, then because they were more expensive.

  255. @Dmitry
    @Sinotibetan

    Here is very much on the "software" level, rather than relating to "hardware".

    In Renaissance Florence, there was a genius living on every street. However, in 21st century Florence, there is no genius on any street. It's not because of a genetic shift, but a different stage of history and culture. Renaissance Florence was producing geniuses, while modern Florence's population is culturally sterile. Classical Athens had the greatest flourishing of genius in world history, but yet modern Greece is one of the world's least intellectually interesting cultures.

    There's not a genetic explanation for this, although blood can be one of many influences.

    If you look at works of an individual genius, they often exhibit the best qualities of their culture at that particular historical epoch. Genius of Hume - it's of the empirical and skeptical 18th century personality, representative of his Scottish Enlightenment milieu. Genius of Kant - includes adding a German pedantry and thoroughness to the scepticism of earlier thinkers like Hume. They wouldn't be the same writers in a different epoch/culture.


    Asians are a little smarter than European
     
    It depends which Asian nationalities and which European ones.

    Obviously Japan is already at the similar level as the advanced North-West European countries, in terms of the average education and culture level of the population.

    Replies: @128, @Suicidal_canadian, @Miville

    Both of your examples have a racial basis. Greece has absorbed lots of foreign blood – Jews, gypsies, pakistanis, albanians, africans, arabs, ect.

    North Italy was the “whiter” side of Italy because of teutonic migration. The country is basically half arab and half german, but the northern italians are being encroached upon demographically.

    I know this is not politically correct, but the book Race or Mongrel by Schultz talks about the racial basis of Italian history. Very enlightening. It is on archive.org and is worth reading.

  256. @Sinotibetan
    @128

    This is because generally speaking, East Asians within the Sinosphere, whether Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese or Koreans have an inferiority complex - they think (and there is some basis for such thinking) that whites(Europeans or American whites) are superior in wealth, culture(European classical music, 'high culture', European art and architectures of the past), intelligence(Western philosophical ideas and political theories, scientific and technological advancements), and aesthetics. For millennia, the Han Chinese valued intelligence, high culture and aesthetics. They exported their culture to the Koreans, Japanese and Vietnamese who were initially less developed. So, the Chinese thought they were and will always remain the most civilized and cultured in the world. They call their country the Middle Kingdom and others were considered barbarians, and inferior. The era of European imperialism brought reality and shattered all Chinese delusions (of grandeur, perhaps? ) of themselves. The European 'barbarians' shattered whatever racial or civilizational pride they had, nope these Western 'barbarians' were cultured, smart, rich, sophisticated and won all wars they had with the Qing Dynasty. Nevermind that the Qing rulers were not even Han Chinese, this by itself was a sign of weakness of Han Chinese civilization at that time.
    So, any Western product or idea already has an edge over Asian made products or ideas in the mind of an average East Asian.
    Being Western made is already good branding, because in the Asian psyche(generally speaking) :-
    Western made products/idea =can be trusted, superior, better quality than similar Asian made products /idea
    Hopefully this kind of inferior complex thinking will change in the future if we Asians can be just as innovative, just as scientifically and technologically sophisticated as the West. It's us Asians developing the self confidence that we can indeed be just as good or better.
    So, Apple laptops (and many Western products, including being a tourist to Europe or USA!) are status symbols in Asia. Doesn't equate to it actually being necessarily better than similar Asian made products.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh

    Besides the ethnic association of quality or status, its been found that given two items of differing place and without much more information to go by, customers often just buy the more expensive of the two items since price is seen as an indicator as quality. Freakonomics wrote about it in an experiment where they were able to sell old watches simply by vastly increasing their prices – without any other information, the exotic name and high price of the old watches made them purchased at much higher rates when they were previously ignored.

    • Thanks: Sinotibetan
    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Daniel Chieh

    That, plus the prestige of anything western, which is based on the experience of the previous two centuries, i.e. a lagging indicator. Probably it’d be more difficult to sell a Chinese product by simply raising its price for that reason.

  257. @E. Harding
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The corona crisis seems likely to lead to a convergence of American and Chinese demographics as

    1. Chinese potential immigrants to the West (outside Australia and New Zealand) increasingly stay in China

    2. Potential immigrants from around the world increasingly don't move to America

    3. American TFR gets repeatedly hit by repeated waves of corona, while China remains immune to the virus due to wise policy

    The question is whether the coronavirus crisis is long-term, short-term, medium-term, etc. There's no reason to expect Western incompetence to disappear anytime soon, and even high levels of vaccine acceptance should make the West a danger zone by Chinese standards for decades to come.

    @Hyperborean

    Good point on internal migration, but hasn't NIMBYism taken over China's major cities in the past decade, with the leadership desiring to reduce the populations of Shanghai and Beijing? At least there are still lots of empty buildings in Tianjin for the migrants to fill up.

    Replies: @Hyperborean, @Astarte

    Tianjin is a rust belt city, its economic conditions are more similar to the Northeast than Beijing or Chongqing, most newcomers there are actually families trying to take advantage of is lower Gaokao admission lines.
    It’s less about NIMBYism than Xi’s own ideas, from what I’ve gathered, Xi considers the oversaturation of population in a few coast cities unfeasible in the long run (he’s right imo, both economically and politically) instead he wants to create more opportunities in provincial capitals so talents can find a home there.
    The liberal technocrats, on the other hand, don’t quite share Xi’s concerns, so we will have to see how this ends up.

  258. @Daniel Chieh
    @Sinotibetan

    Besides the ethnic association of quality or status, its been found that given two items of differing place and without much more information to go by, customers often just buy the more expensive of the two items since price is seen as an indicator as quality. Freakonomics wrote about it in an experiment where they were able to sell old watches simply by vastly increasing their prices - without any other information, the exotic name and high price of the old watches made them purchased at much higher rates when they were previously ignored.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    That, plus the prestige of anything western, which is based on the experience of the previous two centuries, i.e. a lagging indicator. Probably it’d be more difficult to sell a Chinese product by simply raising its price for that reason.

  259. @Thulean Friend
    @Eugene Norman

    The fact that it is "still trading" is an irrelevant point. All countries are trading.
    RCEP is a welcome step but as I noted previously, it lacks a big deficit country since most of the countries in there are surplus ones.


    Far from not having demand the Chinese are supplying most of the increase in yoy demand in the world right now.
     
    This is completely bonkers. China has *increased* its trade surplus despite the world going into a depression. That's the exact opposite of "supplying demand". And it shows you how China's economy has become more unbalanced, not less. If you don't even understand such a basic point, then any more sophisticated argument is way beyond you.

    Replies: @Astarte, @Eugene Norman

    A trade area doesn’t necessarily need a big deficit country to increase its overall trade surplus, they can shift their purchases to each other as regulations converge and tariffs decrease, everyone’s exports becoming more competitive globally is its logical conclusion.
    World economy has become much more unbalanced, probably not China’s, the demand for goods, at least in the US, has rebounded due to stimuli, beyond the pre-pandemic level, while demand for services are struggling, the Chinese can’t travel abroad without risking being locked outside the country.

  260. @Sinotibetan
    @JohnPlywood

    What Songbird said about the Japanese subduing the Ainu is correct and what you said about the Japanese being mixed race(admixture of Yayoi = continental East Asian + Jomon = ancestors of Ainu) is also correct.
    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned). The rest are haplogroups commonly found in continental East Asians (likely Yayoi origin). The Japanese language is totally different from Ainu language(now said to be moribund and near extinction) and is likely brought by Yayoi migrants, or some form of language derived from Yayoi with Jomon substratum. What I am saying is that, the Japanese became a separate ethnic group with the blend of Yayoi and Jomon whereas the Jomons who did not admix with Yayoi became separate peoples called the Ainu.
    As to whether the Jomon during Japanese ethnogenesis subdued the Yayoi or vice versa, who knows? I am more inclined to think that the Yayoi migration(rather than invasion) was a rather gradual and 'peaceful' one, leading to intermarriages between local Jomon and migrant Yayoi and since the local chieftains would likely be Jomon, finally gave rise to the Japanese, with substantial Haplogroup D1 male ancestry and logically more in the elites(one local chieftain became emperor and sired many other aristocratic daimyo and warrior samurai, other local chieftains also evolved to daimyo and samurai), but certainly also substantial continental East Asian male haplogroups (60 to 70 percent Japanese males on average) in the population . The Japanese became more populous and technologically more advanced than the Jomon/Ainu due to agricultural techniques brought by the Yayoi. Then it became Japanese (mixed Yayoi-Jomon) subduing the Jomon/Ainu.
    If I may hypothesize an analogy:consider a USA in the not too distant future in which the population of White/European there has become a minority with current demographic trends. The country underwent Hispanization/Latin Americanization with widespread intermarriages giving predominantly phenotypically mestizoid like population. However the elites who led to this situation were originally white/European heritage, and remain elites, though admixed and mestizoid. The new 'race' borned out of this admixture is called the Amerikana race. There are some hard-core racialist Whites holding out in pockets within USA. The New Amerikana race, being more populous, decides on either assimilating or exterminating these recalcitrant remnant whites.
    Amerikana analogous to 'Japanese'
    Whites analogous to 'Ainu'
    Are the phenotypically mestizoid Amerikana elites (if you were to do Y Haplogroup analyses, considered as 'European' predominantly) considered 'Whites' then?
    Ethnic wars, ethnic admixtures, ethnogenesis of new ethnic groups are part of human history and prehistory.... Many ancient events likely remain unknown despite all kinds of scientific analyses.
    I rest my case.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @JohnPlywood

    However, equating Japanese with Ainu is incorrect. About 35 percent of Japanese males(national average) harbor a subclade of Y haplo group D-M174(ie the haplo group D1 you mentioned).

    As we can see, the most frequent haplogroup in East Japan, where the majority of Japanese live, is haplogroup D1a. None of the three subclades of O are more frequent than D1a. Of course, combining the three O subclades yields a higher result than D, but none of the individual O clades were more prolific than the singular D1a.

    Futhermore, D isn’t the only Jomon haplogroup. C1 and C2 are found in Ainu and were present i the archipelago prior to Yayoi immigration; and I’ve never read anything linking these haplotypes to Yayoi, so the C1 and C2 in Japanese can be combined with D.

    And the Ainu/Jomon haplotypes become EVEN MORE COMMON among the North Japanese who are supposed by you to have “subdued” the Ainu. Even though there is scant mtDNA contribution from Jomon/Ainu women to the north Japanese.

    So we can garner the following hypotheses from the genetic evidence:

    – Jomon males made the biggest singular contribution to the Japanese Y-DNA samples, and bout 50% of the total

    – Jomon female contribution to Japanese is comparatively tiny

    – Japanese emperors and most Daimyo clans carry the D1b haplogroup from North Japan

    – Japanese men “subdued” north Japan basically by marrying their wives to Ainu

    Which does not add up to any “subduing” of Ainu or Jomon in the traditional sense. And the funny thing is that this had all been predicted by the late 1980s by anthropologists:

    https://www.science-frontiers.com/sf065/sf065a01.htm

    The Samurai And The Ainu

    Findings by American anthropologist C. Loring Brace, University of Michigan, will surely be controversial in race conscious Japan. The eye of the predicted storm will be the Ainu, a “racially different” group of some 18,000 people now living on the northern island of Hokkaido. Pure-blooded Ainu are easy to spot: they have lighter skin, more body hair, and higher-bridged noses than most Japanese. Most Japanese tend to look down on the Ainu.

    Brace has studied the skeletons of about 1,100 Japanese, Ainu, and other Asian ethnic groups and has concluded that the revered samurai of Japan are actually descendants of the Ainu, not of the Yayoi from whom most modern Japanese are descended. In fact, Brace threw more fuel on the fire with:

    “Dr. Brace said this interpretation also explains why the facial features of the Japanese ruling class are so often unlike those of typical modern Japanese. The Ainu-related samurai achieved such power and prestige in medieval Japan that they intermarried with royality and nobility, passing on Jomon-Ainu blood in the upper classes, while other Japanese were primarily descended from the Yoyoi.”

    The reactions of Japanese scientists have been muted so. One Japanese anthropologist did say to Brace,” I hope you are wrong.”

    The Ainu and their origin have always been rather mysterious, with some people claiming that the Ainu are really Caucasian or proto-Caucasian – in other words, “white.” At present, Brace’s study denies this interpretation.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @JohnPlywood

    1.)I think you have a point about the Northern Japanese having more proportion of Haplogroup D1 being not in support of the Japanese 'subduing' the Ainus. Point taken and a valid argument.
    2.)I don't think that Haplogroup C-M217(the recent nomenclature for C2) is 'exclusive' to early Jomon as it is in very high frequencies in Mongolia (much higher than the Ainus) and is present in appreciable proportions in Korea and Northern China, so it may still be found in the Yayoi.
    3.) The mitochondrial haplogroups N9b and Y (matrilineal origins) are found frequently in Ainus, Rukyu people(also believed to have Jomon origins) and modern day Japanese. Mitochondrial haplogroup N9b is apparently frequent in Japanese, and Ainus and Rukyans, but also found in some southern Chinese and Koreans. See:-
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC524407/
    Mitochondrial haplogroup G1b is prevalent in both Japanese and Ainu/Jomon:-
    Japan considered from the hypothesis of farmer/language spread;Elisabeth de Boer et al;Evolutionary Human Sciences(2020) 2 e13 pg 1 of 20
    This reduces the validity of a Jomon 'subduing' Yayoi (killing Yayoi males and getting their females) but supports the Yayoi-Jomon admixture hypothesis of Japanese ethonogenesis.
    4.)However, this following article says that the Ainus, who mostly lived in the North(Hokkaido) were forcibly assimilated into Japanese society over a period of 100 years. Perhaps the assimilation did not mean extermination of male Ainus but more of cultural assimilation to 'become Japanese'. At least in modern history, the Ainus were indeed 'subdued' by the Japanese. See:-
    https://www.sapiens.org/archaeology/ainu-prejudice-pride/

    , @britishbrainsize
    @JohnPlywood

    Why are you soo intersested in asians dumbass incel no good will ever come out of it .

  261. People say that the Chinese/East Asians lack intellectual curiosity, but I don’t think the average Westerner is particularly intellectually curious either. Most British people study to pass tests and increase their salary, not usually because they are genuinely interested in the subject matter.

    It’s probably true there’s more intellectual curiosity in British academia than Chinese academia overall, but that’s more representative of the upper echelons of British society than the attitudes and values of the average person.

    Also, even amongst Western countries the perception of intellectual curiosity and creativity isn’t equal. Like in the UK at least the perception of Germans is that they’re excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Europe Europa


    Germans is that they’re excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.
     
    This perception might have nothing to do with reality. German accomplishments in music and the arts are well known, even their cars are often unique (the Porsche 911 is certainly a pretty original sports car), and of course the British often perceived the Wehrmacht as a rigid organization, when in fact it was the most flexible military (at least the army) in the world.

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @Dmitry

  262. @Sinotibetan
    @songbird

    Interesting observation about the Japanese. Unfortunately I have no answers to these questions. Earlier on, the Japanese imported Han dynasty and Tang dynasty culture + technology and they improved on them. Later, they learned modern science and technology, and improved on them. Other nations may innovate, the Japanese may adopt but improve on those innovations.
    About Europeans, I think the explanation is likely quite complex. Current political and cultural elites in the West and Europe tend to try to uplift non European cultures - especially African and Islamic ones - and focus on the negative aspects of European colonialism /imperialism. It's a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it's this 'moral superiority complex' of progressive elites to atone for 'white guilt' of European imperialism?
    To me, a descendant of 'the colonialized' , let bygones be bygones about European imperialism - it was not all bad, and it was not all good for both Europeans and the colonialized peoples. I want to be thankful of the good aspects - I am exposed to British culture, the British left a government and legal system for my country and brought technological and scientific advancement. A lot of bad things were done by British imperialists, but a lot of good were done too. And I think the British (sorry to the French,Dutch and Spaniards) did try to develop their colonies for the better (at least I can say this is true about my own country).
    I think the Europeans had great cultures and scientific and technological contributions to humanity. Their elites should stop undermining this legacy.

    Replies: @songbird

    It’s a kind of subtle anti-European agenda. Perhaps it’s this ‘moral superiority complex’ of progressive elites to atone for ‘white guilt’ of European imperialism?

    Yes, I think the culture has been harmed, from the elite level. In my opinion though, it doesn’t have anything to do with imperialism – that is more of an excuse. See the modern transformation of Ireland, a country with a long history of being invaded and oppressed. I think it comes from the instinct of egalitarianism – perhaps useful to a certain extent in past times, but kind of short-circuited or made haywire by the presence of diversity, at levels never experienced before.

    If you go back in time, before the population of nonwhites in the West exploded, you’ll see a lot of aspirational messaging in the culture. (say, in the 1980s) There was an appeal to the general public to achieve wealth or success, or to become higher class, or more refined. Kind of like, pre-industrial times, when people aspired to better manners, hence words like “vulgar” or “villain”, referencing low-class behavior.

    What is strange is that today, these messages are practically gone. Wealthy whites have become more villainized. And many/most of the successful people shown on TV (as actors in commercials) are blacks. The aspirational messaging seems to be directed almost entirely at blacks, even in a European country like the UK.

    Also, I think a big part of it is that Europeans are no longer assertive in projecting their own culture. We hear China being mocked a little, for not having the cultural footprint of Japan, but how are Europeans doing in 2020? We are resting on our laurels, our past achievements. Most of our culture, whether in America or Europe, has been taken over by diversity messaging. There is also a lot of Jewish influence in the media, and they don’t seem to have the same root values or attachment to European history or mythology.

    • Agree: Sinotibetan
  263. @Kent Nationalist
    @songbird

    How many times were Chinese fleets driven off the coast of Zeeland?

    Replies: @songbird

    The Age of Exploration is over. What advantages that existed back then, fleetingly, have been eroded. Today, the Chinese manufacture our globes and have their own version of GPS.

    Asians have also accumulated some exploratory firsts. Chinese had the first probe to land on the dark side of the moon, and Japanese had the first landing on an asteroid.

  264. @Europe Europa
    People say that the Chinese/East Asians lack intellectual curiosity, but I don't think the average Westerner is particularly intellectually curious either. Most British people study to pass tests and increase their salary, not usually because they are genuinely interested in the subject matter.

    It's probably true there's more intellectual curiosity in British academia than Chinese academia overall, but that's more representative of the upper echelons of British society than the attitudes and values of the average person.

    Also, even amongst Western countries the perception of intellectual curiosity and creativity isn't equal. Like in the UK at least the perception of Germans is that they're excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    Germans is that they’re excellent engineers and manufacturers, but lacking in creativity and have a very rigid mentality and culture, as well as being very bureaucratic.

    This perception might have nothing to do with reality. German accomplishments in music and the arts are well known, even their cars are often unique (the Porsche 911 is certainly a pretty original sports car), and of course the British often perceived the Wehrmacht as a rigid organization, when in fact it was the most flexible military (at least the army) in the world.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @reiner Tor

    Equally couldn't the perception of East Asians as rigid and lacking in creativity have nothing to do with reality?

    It seems to me that neither the Chinese, Japanese or Koreans are lacking in artistic/cultural achievements, and the Japanese and Koreans seem to have plenty of recent technological achievements.

    China less so but that probably has more to do with their political system, which is obviously not an indigenous system, and the fact they have only more recently become a "developed" nation compared to Japan and South Korea.

    I've never understood why people say East Asians lack creativity and are more rigid with absolute certainty though, in some respects Japanese and Korean pop culture seems more creative, original and prepared to push boundaries than Western pop culture is.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Blinky Bill

    , @Dmitry
    @reiner Tor

    These stereotypes of "original cultures" vs "imitative cultures" also relate to the chronology of countries' development.

    Renaissance begins in Italy and spreads North. Germany's cultural flourishing is later than in France, and they develop a sense of imitating too much France and Italy, and Germans react with the cult of the genius, and the idea that originality is the highest value in art.

    In Goethe's time, there was still a sense that Germans need to directly inject culture into themselves, from Italy (even physically that you need to go to live in Italy, to become a cultured person, or to know civilization).

    Russia is the last the developing civilization in Europe, and there is the strongest sense of imitating and importing culture from the West. And endless conflicts and panic across the 19th century about how much to copy and imitate from the West, and awkward feeling of inferiority (and many fearing that everything in the modern Russian culture was an imitation of Europe's inventions).

    Russia is last developing of the great European wave that begins from the Renaissance. America was already almost too late flourishing civilization, for the great classical composers, writers and painters to feel like a native part of their heritage. So, in America, there is still a sense of inferiority and "imitating Europe", in classical music, painting and literature.

    But America was saved to some extent by the crazy technological change of the 20th century, and able to be the original creative flourishing in new culture fields like cinema, jazz...later video games, etc.

    Replies: @utu

  265. @AlexanderGrozny
    @128

    Exactly. China doesn't produce any innovation of it's own. Pretty much all of Huawei's creations are apple fakes.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rClPq0iFg2M

    Replies: @128, @Dmitry, @Blinky Bill, @Shortsword, @last straw, @showmethereal

    Poor you… You have been seduced by Winston the South African who failed at his ventures in China while being an English teacher who married a Chinese woman – who now that he left China – the only substance he has in his life is to spend time talking about how China is going to fail. He’s the fully white version of Gordon Chang. Except Gordon Chang targets a more educated audience. Winston – aka “Serpent” (what a name – huh?) targets the mundanely ignorant.

    In any event – ask Tim Cook and he will tell you Huawei is very advanced. Go ask ARM who is one the best users of their architecture. Ask Nokia and Ericsson and Cisco and they will say the same regarding network equipment. But you could check the patents to know that.

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
  266. @utu
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    What if the halting of Japan's growth was engineered by Bank of Japan going against the Ministry of Finance that was responsible for Japan's economic model? According to this documentary it took years to carry it out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-IZZxyb1GI

    Pulling away the curtains from the 'Princes of the Yen'
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2003/08/10/books/book-reviews/pulling-away-the-curtains-from-the-princes-of-the-yen/

    Richard A. Werner has written a rare book. “The Princes of the Yen” is a scholarly, thoroughly researched treatise on economics that reads like a detective novel.

    The book is about the autocrats who run the Bank of Japan, how they operate and what they have been trying to achieve. In the process, many puzzles about Japan’s economy are solved. These “princes” are neither elected by Japanese citizens nor held accountable to their elected officials. Presiding princes choose their successors who, in turn, seem to be accountable only to their benefactors.

    Werner specifically accuses the princes of surreptitiously using their control over Japan’s supply of credit to prevent an economic recovery for the past decade. Why? In order to achieve the “reform” or transformation of Japan’s economy into a carbon copy of today’s U.S. economy that the princes deemed necessary for Japan.

    Werner begins by pointing out something rarely discussed in Japan: that the “traditional” Japanese economic model — widely considered responsible for the “economic miracle” that built the world’s second-largest economy from the bombed-out ruins of World War II in just 30 years — isn’t traditional at all.

    Company unions, lifetime employment, government regulation and a business ethos favoring cooperation over competition and customers and employees over stockholders were consciously introduced during World War II. With the approval of the U.S., Japan retained its wartime economic system and kept its bureaucratic elite in power. This enabled Japan’s “economic miracle” and conquest of world markets after the war.

    Werner says money was the main tool bureaucrats used to control Japan’s economy during and after the war. The credit controls survived largely unchanged into the postwar era, taking the form of the extralegal and secretive “window guidance” operated by the BOJ. According to Werner, “guiding” credit to selected industries and preventing others, such as consumers, from obtaining it, was at the core of Japan’s postwar success.

    Werner next examines why these “princes of the yen” crippled Japan’s economy from the mid-1980s. Werner uses the princes’ own utterances, together with an analysis of their actual but little-known credit policies, to reveal their goals. These were never secret, but plain for all to see. The princes have consistently argued for the need to “reform” or “transform” Japan’s economy, through structural changes, into the type of deregulated and liberalized system demanded by U.S. trade negotiators.

    Werner traces the origin of this reform movement, now mostly associated with Koizumi and Finance Minister Heizo Takenaka, back to 1983 when “prince” Tadashi Sasaki called for a transformation and liberalization of the Japanese economy.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Mefobills

    I saw that documentary a couple of years ago. I was pleasantly surprised that explained what really took place in Japan. And yes at the end of the day – since WW2 Japan has been an outpost of US policy. Even willingly neutering itself to appease US