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I have been a long-term China bull since I began blogging. Proof (2008). A lot of what the Western media was writing about China were based on Sinophobic fantasies that had no correlation with reality. Just to be clear, I am still a China bull, at least in the sense that I’m sure its GDP per capita will converge to the levels predicted by its human capital, i.e. Japan/South Korea, giving it by far the world’s largest economy by mid-century. But I am increasingly skeptical about its ability to produce anything that is… really interesting/world-transformational.

It continues making top-down decisions that, as in centuries past, may curtail the ultimate scope of its civilizational achievements.

Several months ago, it made it illegal to create gene-edited babies. If enforced, this effectively takes China out of the biosingularity race. Conversely, the first gene-selected baby in the world was born a few weeks ago in the US (the father’s political views raised a minor journalistic furor).

Now China bans crypto. While “China bans crypto” stories have become something of a meme in the crypto community over the years, this latest one seems qualitatively different. They’re no longer just banning financial institutions from provisioning crypto services, trading them on leverage, or mining Bitcoin on account of its carbon costs and strain on the electricity grid. Those measures were defensible from a social and environmental point of view. This latest ban appears to criminalize the purchase of cryptocurrencies from overseas or even involvement in marketing or technical support related to crypto business.

There is a good chance that crypto and Web 3.0 will transform global finance, governance, and the Internet over the next generation in fundamental ways. Many of these transformations will be in ways that challenge or at least question the traditional prerogatives of the state as regards censorship, monetary emissions, and even legal sovereignty. But it is not a process that can be reversed top-down at the global level. Now, it will just just pass China by. Fred Reed waxes eloquent about the “digital yuan”, but why would anyone want to use a centralized stablecoin pegged to the yuan that’s controlled from the PBC given the variety of more discrete and already existing alternatives? China can certainly enforce it within its own borders. But in the outside world, you have Bitcoin on the Lightning network, now universally implemented in El Salvador and soon to be integrated into Twitter micropayments according to rumors. There are many other competing decentralized solutions on Ethereum and other chains, including stablecoins pegged to various currencies.

Long-term, the world economy has been defined by accelerating dematerialization. There is no reason to think that will stop anytime soon. Japan bet on hardware, but it was software that ate the world – with the result that Silicon Valley conquered global IT. Japan is now the poorest G7 country after Italy. All the top AI talent is in the US, as are the three leading AI research outfits (DeepMind, OpenAI, Google AI). Tesla and SpaceX are American. Its Woke drama and government dysfunction are spectacles that conceal ineluctable American strength across the global O-Ring sector. Meanwhile, China is making it a priority to manufacture semiconductors at the density achieved by TSMC (which are built using Dutch machines). No doubt a very important undertaking. The technological equivalent of grinding in video games.

These Chinese decisions remind me strongly of the famous “sea bans” (haijin) pursued under the Ming and the early Qing involving bans on maritime trade and ship construction. Intermittently issued, ineffectively enforced, trivially circumvented by the pirates and smugglers it was putatively aimed against – who were often aided by local officials in return for part of the spoils. The treasure fleets rotted away in their harbors and a few centuries later Europeans overspread the world. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

 

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: China, Cryptocurrency 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. songbird says:

    Not by coincidence, Japan is also the G7 member most distantly located from the other G7 members.

    Would take its relative lack of diversity over per capita gains any day of the week. Though, sadly it may just be another function of geography, with lag factors.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  3. So Bitcoin may be a Ponzi scheme with a market cap of \$750bn, but so is Tesla. And Bitcoin has done less for the money transfer industry than Tesla has done for the motor industry (almost nothing).

    Fred Reed is right – the attraction of a digital currency is as a stable store of value. Not as a wild speculative bet with downside.

  4. Mersaux says:

    The comparison with Japan is interesting. Maybe there are even more factors than just IQ and creativitiy,when it comes to science, maybe a third factor? Maybe just different ways of thinking? On the other hand, Chinese are extremely over-represented in American AI Labs. Maybe it’s really just a cultural thing.

  5. Svevlad says:

    they’re taking the worst cues from the rightoid side

    sacrificing dominant power status over internet coins is stupid, so stupid that the universe itself will punish them, and i think it will be an extreme, civilization-ending punishment

    I say to Putler: make plans to grab the rest of manchuria

    On the other hand, India is going in the opposite, pushing both gene editing and crypto. China won’t be able to pull a “haha we best everyone shit” that led to their demise in the first place when there’s a literal transhumanist and maybe even fashpilled country on their doorstep – no better incentive to reverse dumb decisions

    • Replies: @sher singh
  6. Ron Unz says:

    Now China bans crypto…There is a good chance that crypto and Web 3.0 will transform global finance, governance, and the Internet over the next generation in fundamental ways…Fred Reed waxes eloquent about the “digital yuan”, but why would anyone want to use a centralized stablecoin pegged to the yuan that’s controlled from the PBC given the variety of more discrete and already existing alternatives? China can certainly enforce it within its own borders. But in the outside world, you have Bitcoin on the Lightning network, now universally implemented in El Salvador and soon to be integrated into Twitter micropayments according to rumors.

    I’m very skeptical of that analysis. I think crypto is basically a hoax and a bubble, if not an outright Ponzi scheme.

    I’d say that 99.9% of the transactions made with a currency just require a plain-vanilla unit of value, preferably one that the US government can’t freeze or sanction. Crypto seems totally useless, except for criminals, such as drug-dealers and blackmailers, plus bubble-speculators.

    Taken together China, Russia, and Iran provide a very substantial fraction of the world’s basic goods, natural resources including oil, and even cutting-edge military technology. Since the US is endlessly sanctioning and bullying them with the dollar-system, they’ll eventually shift to something else, such as a Digital Yuan, at which point the dollar will probably collapse.

    The reason the DY would be worth something is that China and other countries will give you physical goods for it, just like much of the current value of the dollar is because oil is priced in dollars. But Russia and Iran can change that situation.

  7. Is buying Urbit still the move?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  8. Passer by says:

    Apparently you do not know much about China. Huawei is moving right now from hardware to software, start reading something new. China is prioritising cloud computing, big data, IOT, AI, smart cities, etc.
    https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/us-war-on-huawei-misses-the-control-point/

    • Agree: GomezAdddams
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  9. A123 says: • Website

    There is a weird feeling of cognitive dissonance from the digital currency acolytes here in the U.S. They are almost always Leftoid believers in Climate Cooling / Warming / Change. Yet, digital currency mining is bad for the environment:

        • Toxic substances are used to build the electronics.
        • Miners use electricity from hydrocarbons, including coal.
        • At end-of-life, the equipment creates a waste stream.
    ___

    The PRC is building all sorts of power plants, coal & nuclear, to get ahead of demand. They are dropping “Bit Mining” for this practical reason. I predict that at some point down the line, the CCP will repackage the shutdown as “Green Strategy”, which will drive the Leftoid SJW’s here in the U.S. completely bonkers.

    PEACE 😇

  10. Unit472 says:

    Seems to me Xi Jinping has decided to preserve the regime ( and his rule) over all else. He may believe, like the old USSR, he can acquire, copy or steal what technology as is needed to maintain military parity with the US led bloc but that depends on not having to go to war with the US, say in 1945, and being able to postpone the conflict until China has caught up. Very dangerous.

    China also runs the great risk now of growing old before it can grow rich. Japan and South Korea can probably manage their slow population decline without an social or economic collapse but China still has no social safety net so any economic upheaval will more likely require the regime to turn its guns on its own people to stay in power.

    • Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  11. Passer by says:

    Oh, btw, you are one G-20 meeting away from uncontrolled crypto currencies ban the moment crypto really threatens the money printers.

  12. What about the impact of climate change in Chinese economy by mid-century? I’m sure it will be less benign than in Russia or Canada…

  13. @Mersaux

    The comparison with Japan is interesting. Maybe there are even more factors than just IQ and creativitiy,when it comes to science, maybe a third factor?

    All Japanese scientists who are capable of doing Nobel level work have to self-exile for life to be able to do it while they’re still in their young most productive stages of life. Related, patio11 on Hacker News has detailed how young computer programmers working for the big companies don’t get to contribute until they’ve been there for years. As the US audit of Toyota’s code for running a car or cars that were claimed to have problems like getting stuck throttles revealed, this does not result in high quality code. Entirely the opposite, and if you have experience with old code bases you’ll recognize the issues described were very real and credible.

    I’d personally like to know how Japan essentially dropped out of the manufacturing of cutting edge semiconductors. Over the years I heard details about how for example engineers would take weekend trips to Korea to set them up, pretty much all DRAM is now made there by SK Hynix and Samsung there except for a small amount made by Micron in the US. I mean, they still make lots of chips, and maybe a lot of flash (Toshibi/WD), but I’m not sure they’re a leader in anything but optical sensors for cameras and specialty chemicals.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
  14. @Ron Unz

    The reason the DY would be worth something is that China and other countries will give you physical goods for it, just like much of the current value of the dollar is because oil is priced in dollars.

    Minor problem: every digital yuan essentially has a serial number which the PRC/CCP can use to cancel it if they see fit. The PRC historically just hasn’t been willing to do the things that would allow the yuan to become a reserve currency; how much can the DY do if it’s not something others are willing to hold for very long?

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  15. @Passer by

    Huawei is moving right now from hardware to software, start reading something new.

    With extremely rare exceptions that prove the rule like Nvidia, hardware companies really suck at doing software, and the reverse is usually true as well. Huawei becoming a software powerhouse is particularly unlikely after what was revealed in the U.K. audit of their base station software, like literally tens of copies of different versions of a critical open source cryptography library. They just don’t get it at all, but this does make those systems so vulnerable before you buy it you don’t particularly have to worry about them spying on you, everyone will be able to.

    This is not to say people and companies in the PRC can’t do software, it’s just part of a general world wide pattern of what companies can do well or not.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  16. Kuru says:

    Very bad take regarding the crypto ban. I am surprised some as intelligent as Karlin fell for the notion that crypto’s uses extend beyond buying illegal goods on the dark web.

    The value of bitcoin is very volatile and nobody regards it as a currency in its own right, its value is always tied to fiat currency. Furthermore it is as susceptible to manipulation as any other central bank issued currency.

    Overall, its popularity is a symptom of Western decadence and speculation culture, hence China is right to ban it just as it has banned celebrity fandoms and limited ShitTok usage to 40 minutes a day for minors.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  17. I don’t know about crypto. I need to buy wood for roof. There is huge demand. Yet, nobody is taking crypto. Not even drug dealers. They laughed at me😭 I see it like pyramid scheme. There is no point if Bitcoin if you can’t exchange for money easily. I see it like stocks. Buy dip, sell high. Buy dip, sell high. Store real value in money, maybe stock or house

  18. All the top AI talent is in the US

    This is the weakest claim in your argument https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2020/01/14/china-artificial-intelligence-superpower/?sh=3f6b8282f053

    The strongest evidence that China is superior to the Unites States is culture and vigor and energy(cultural not physical).
    During the outbreak the Chinese built a hospital in a month.
    Something interesting to not is that Chinese hydrogen bombs are of a different superior design to other hydrogen bombs. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/yu-min.htm
    The Chinese are capable of translating original brilliant ideas into reality. That is a capability the U.S has lost.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  19. sher singh says:
    @Svevlad

    https://mobile.twitter.com/khalsuprmacy/status/1427990274173661191?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zorawar_Singh_Kahluria

    Bunch of clueless boomer comments by those who don’t understand blockchain tech||

    This isn’t like banning fiat vs gold, more like banning industrial tech over subsidence agriculture||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  20. @Ron Unz

    I’m very skeptical of that analysis. I think crypto is basically a hoax and a bubble, if not an outright Ponzi scheme.

    The first and third claims are factually wrong, though probably beyond the scope of this discussion. Suffice to say we’re not in the Silk Road era. There is a good chance crypto is currently in a bubble. Then again, most things are, right now. That bubble might become a lot bigger before it pops.

    Since the US is endlessly sanctioning and bullying them with the dollar-system, they’ll eventually shift to something else, such as a Digital Yuan, at which point the dollar will probably collapse.

    For internal transactions, Russia has the MIR system. China and Iran have their own systems. For inter-state commerce, they will just move settlements away from the dollar (as they’re gradually doing anyway). But you don’t need digital anything for that.

    Fred Reed, as I recall, envisions the digital yuan as a parallel financial system that countries friendly to China will adopt or something like that. That seems like a very absurd idea to me, e.g. from Russia’s perspective – camaraderie aside, what reason is there for Russia to allow domestic commercial transactions in a foreign digital currency that is centrally controlled from the People’s Bank of China, which is not provably secure (I doubt it will be open source), and which will give China extreme surveillance capabilities over the entire Russian economy?

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @Levtraro
  21. sher singh says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Subsistence agriculture*

    camaraderie aside, what reason is there for Russia to allow domestic commercial transactions in a foreign digital currency that is centrally controlled from the People’s Bank of China

    To respect the Mandate of Heaven, and worship of the God-Emperor.

    The Middle Kingdom gonna find itself stuck in Middle Income the way it going, LOL.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    , @Deep Thought
  22. @40 Lashes Less One

    I think it will still do a 2-3x with current tokenization plans slated for this November, but the r:r is a lot less attractive now (current floor on Open Sea is 4 \$ETH = \$12k) than when I soft shilled it at \$5000. If it coincides with big bull run + renewed NFT hype, I can see it going all the way to \$100k. If instead we’re in bear market by EOY, I can see it back at \$5k. I think you can still make a lot of money on it but there are probably better plays, especially if you’re not rich enough to justify getting an entire star. NFA/DYOR.

    • Replies: @40 Lashes Less One
  23. @Passer by

    Always one meeting away. Any day now…

    Meanwhile, the shitcoin called \$USD continues devaluing against both \$BTC and \$TOTAL by an average of several factors each year.

    Other national currency shitcoins devaluing just as fast or faster.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  24. @That Would Be Telling

    Daniel Chieh has also noted that Japanese programmers, while highly creative, are also extremely cliquey. So you don’t get the “open source” ethos that drives so much North-West European and even East European accomplishment in this domain.

  25. Voltarde says:

    “… All the top AI talent is in the US, as are the three leading AI research outfits (DeepMind, OpenAI, Google AI). Tesla and SpaceX are American. Its Woke drama and government dysfunction are spectacles that conceal ineluctable American strength …”

    The twelve 2019 USA Math Olympiad winners:

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    , @Escher
  26. Among the G7 Italy & France have inflated per capita incomes due to the Euro whose value is held up mostly because of Germany’s large export surplus outside the Eurozone.

    But yes its been a dramatic fall for Japan in industry after industry Consumer Electronics,Networking Hardware,Smartphones,Semi Conductors,Display Technologies etc.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  27. @Voltarde

    Good for them. Winning Math Olympiads is socially prestigious and will help get them well-renumerated, high-status jobs.

    • Replies: @Voltarde
  28. @Anatoly Karlin

    Have a look at the names on the vast majority of those papers…. You’ll be lucky to see 5% Anglo heritage, vast majority are Asian

  29. novoordo says:

    I don’t think it’s implausible that the Western Faustian love/pursuit of technical and progressive change for the sake of change and the more conservative and cautious Chinese tendency will result in a future where the US or some part of the West is the most advanced or powerful while China is relatively backwards and primitive.

    But the implication here is that the West will have pursued the most radical changes imaginable – genetic engineering, cyborgism, brain implants and other implants of all kinds, transhumanism, etc. These future changes would result in people and societies totally alien to early 21st century people and societies. While China would be relatively backwards and primitive but closer to us here in the early 21st century.

    It seems to me that people who feel positive about this potential scenario either have a quasi-religious belief in technical change providing some sort of salvation, or have very strong tribalistic, in-group feelings such that nominal Western domination or the West being the most powerful relative to out-groups is their chief concern and interest.

    Incidentally, Xi Jinping is said to be a big fan of Goethe’s Faust:

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @angmoh
    , @Yellowface Anon
  30. Voltarde says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The point that I was trying to make is that within the Chinese population there is a huge pool of talent in the hard sciences and engineering disciplines. In the post-Mao era, these talented individuals were finally able to receive an education commensurate with their intellectual potential as overseas students. Over the past 35 years these mainland Chinese students and scholars (and now, their children) have been a tremendous source of talent for the Anglosphere and Europe.

    In China that STEM talent pool will only get stronger now that China has the facilities and environment for them to flourish domestically. In contrast, America is pursuing social and economic policies that can only be described as national self-mutilation.

  31. iffen says:

    There is a good chance that crypto and Web 3.0 will transform global finance, governance, and the Internet over the next generation in fundamental ways.

    I know next to nothing about crypto currency. (I still don’t know how, if every transaction is recorded, how someone was able to steal wallets a few years ago.)

    But I do pay attention to some MSM and time and again, without any reference to finance or economics, the case against crypto is made that it is dangerous because it is outside the control of the institutions that have been set up to exercise control.

    Mine baby, mine!

    Accelerate! Accelerate!

    And don’t look back!

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  32. Not Raul says:
    @sher singh

    Xi would rather rule a middle income country, than be in prison in a high income country. Xi values stability.

    The next big CPC election/conference is in 2022.

    Does anyone have any thoughts?

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/after-xi

    • Thanks: sher singh
    • Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  33. Not Raul says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    So, is South Korea taking over tech leadership in Asia from Japan?

    • Replies: @mike99588
  34. There is a good chance that crypto and Web 3.0 will transform global finance, governance, and the Internet over the next generation in fundamental ways. Many of these transformations will be in ways that challenge or at least question the traditional prerogatives of the state as regards censorship, monetary emissions, and even legal sovereignty.

    And this is of course an unacceptable prospect to China’s government. I can’t imagine anyone is surprised that they were going to ban crypto in the end.

    How do you reconcile your bullishness on China and your professed respect for the CPC with your seeming belief that decentralization will define the coming decades? If that’s the case, China was never going to make it.

    However, they are aggressively rolling out blockchain technology, with the DY being the best but not only example. Cryptocurrencies have been to date, in my humble opinion, one of the less promising implementations of blockchain. In regards to those implementations that are most critical to your O-ring concept, such as in the supply chain, China is presently ahead of the US. So I think it’s a little premature to count them out.

  35. BRK2 says:

    My feeling is that China is going its own way. It has acquired enough power to have the confidence (or perhaps arrogance) under Xi Jinping to chart its own path, which is neither the liberalization that liberals hoped for or the based-civilization that rightoids imagined.

    I think the liberals have been soundly BTFO over the past couple decades, but I now think we’re seeing the alt-right including possibly our dear author (who I highly respect), be disabused of their notions of China as well.

    China is China. It’s probably thinking of the West magnitudes less than most people in the West think it does. I don’t think they’re looking at the West and furiously copying what works and discarding what doesn’t. They’re not trying to be a pale imitation of the West. They’re moving in accordance with their 5000 year (or whatever it is) history and how they see themselves as the successors of that history. They were forced to adopt western methods and values when they got wrecked during the “Century of Humiliation”, but I think they’re very happy to go back to their own ways now that they can afford to.

    I think we’re going to see China do some incredibly smart things like maintaining order. And also some incredibly stupid things, like not switching to a democratic government that can smoothly change leaders. But that’s because they’re beating to their own drum, which is different than ours. This is the kind of diversity in cultures and systems which I actually think is nice to have in the world.

    Clearly there is something in the oriental culture which makes JP and SK (and likely in the future China) underperform in GDP, with perhaps other benefits that can’t be captured by GDP. I don’t think China is going to rule the world the way America has. Oriental culture seems much more insular and less missionary. I see the West making further inroads in dominating the rest of the world: Middle East, Africa, South America. The West will stretch all over the world right up to the borders of East Asia. East Asia will maintain its sovereignty but will remain hermit kingdoms, as we see Japan today. Nice places to live harmoniously for their inhabitants, but not necessarily superior to the West.

    • Disagree: tamo
  36. @Anatoly Karlin

    For those of us who are not rich enough for it, then Kleros and Rubic?

    AK: We are now in last stage of an epic bull or in early bear. I am 80% confident that this is the former. Only thing that can stop Bitcoin going to \$100k EOY or early the next is if stonks nuke IMO. I can’t exclude that, though. Buffett Indicator at 200% probably not sustainable, even with all the printing.

    [MORE]

    Kleros is a long-term hold. I think its one of the most prospective smallcaps, but I don’t think it will pump hard in the short to medium term. Rubic is much more speculative and can 100x or go to zero, no way to say. There’s many coins competing to provide a cross-chain dex solution, I think Rubic is more likely to be successful than most, but it’s a coin toss.

    If you want to go “degen” now (with a small amount of “speculative” money that you can afford to lose, obviously): My suggestion would probably to invest in Solana/Solana DeFi and Arbitrum ecosystem.

    \$SOL looks like it might pull off relative to Ethereum, what \$ETH pulled off relative to \$BTC in 2017-18. Best solution to the Blockchain Trilemma available right now IMO. It is criminal that its mc is still less than that of Cardano vaporware and the centralized ETH clone that is the BSC casino. If you want to go really degen, might look to get \$SAMO, the chain’s original dog coin: https://samoyedcoin.com/ If we get bull run * renewed doge coin run * Solana does another 10x * NFT hype, I can see \$SAMO doing a 1,000x.

    Arbitrum is an optimistic rollup for ETH and will probably become the dominant L2 for ETH as \$MATIC fades away. If ETH gets sent, I think the Arbitrum ecosystem will 10-100x. Good coin stacks to pick up there include \$GMX, a dex that allows you to do 30x leveraged trades – still tiny market cap; for more degen plays, memecoins \$AMOON, \$ADOGE (original dog coin), and liquidity farm \$HONEY. I consider these Arbitrum coins to essentially be a call option on ETH this winter.

    I’m also very bullish on \$AVAX but it’s probably overheated right now. Don’t suggest buying it at current prices. Also worth keeping an eye out on: \$MINA, \$NOIA.

    Obviously don’t hold any of these altcoins past peak hype. Most go down 90%+. Convert to fiat or BTC.

    • Replies: @40 Lashes Less One
  37. I do think the ban on human gene editing is dumb to the extreme, but I don’t see banning crypto as stupid at all. What does China have to gain from DeFi?

  38. Raches says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    Free-Speech Money (—a teaser…)

    I think crypto is basically a hoax and a bubble, if not an outright Ponzi scheme.

    I’d say that 99.9% of the transactions between make with a currency just require a plain-vanilla unit of value, preferably one that the US government can’t freeze or sanction.  Crypto seems totally useless, except for criminals, such as drug-dealers and blackmailers, plus bubble-speculators.

    Bitcoin is free-speech money.

    It is free speech, qua speech, in and of itself:  The entirety of Bitcoin’s real value rises from its being a secure, fast, censorship-resistant, consensus-based communications system for financial information.  These properties are what let it solve many practical problems with the banking system—real-world problems; for me and for many others, Bitcoin is by comparison a pleasure to use!  Whereas most of the speculators don’t understand Bitcoin’s value fundamentals.  Some of them understand how to exploit it to make money, which is why they are much richer than I am; many more of them understand how to lose money, lots of it; I think that most speculators do not more than superficially understand Bitcoin itself.

    Besides being itself the exercise of free speech, Bitcoin is a protector of the freedom of speech.  As matters now stand in a world of financial deplatforming (archive.is, onion archive), Bitcoin is one of the most important safeguards of the values so cherished in The Unz Review’s Mission Statement—at least, for those who are not independently wealthy, and who nevertheless like to eat!

    Even for those who (still, as of now) have other means to accept online payments, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are important.  I observe that right up at the top, Mr. Karlin’s “donations” page currently accepts seven different cryptocurrencies—starting with Bitcoin (with a Bech32 address—good for Mr. Karlin)…

    Of course, some people will abuse this freedom.

    Criminals tend to use cash, which is more or less completely anonymous—unlike Bitcoin.  (I speak with expertise.  Bitcoin’s alleged “anonymity” is a pernicious popular myth, which I intend to debunk sometime on my blog.)  But no one who is not insane would suggest that good old-fashioned cash be a criminal thing.  (Yes, I am aware that some people are insane.)

    Some “people” abuse the freedom of speech to advocate “Regular slapping and the occasional vicious beating of a woman” as “a necessity in every household”, or otherwise to advocate “legalized beatings”.¹  Some people abuse the freedom to keep and bear arms in obvious ways.  Some criminals do abuse the privilege against arbitrary search and seizure to conceal evidence of their crimes.  Many criminals abuse the protections of the legal system to try to exonerate themselves—and sometimes, the abuse is drastic.

    Financial freedom is the protector of other freedoms, and financial tyranny is a means to reduce a nation to slavery.  Vide Roosevelt’s seizure of Americans’ gold…

    I am very well aware that the crypto-world is full of nonsense.  Consider an analogy, Mr. Unz, from your own experience:²  Your know well the task of sifting through mountains of nonsense for some nuggets of gold.  Cryptocurrency scams are like false and fallacious “conspiracy theories”—there are so many of them; and if you start in the wrong place, it’s easy to get a bad impression of the relevant “community”.  I think you would probably agree that the ingeminate Winklevi are reputable businessmen; and it would be as unwise to bin them with the scammers as it would be to classify you and me with David Icke.

    Now, I would love to continue this essay.  Hereby, I have merely sketched some arguments (including a few that are unusual, or perhaps even original, as to the nature and real value of Bitcoin).  I want better to explain, and to back up my assertions.  I also want to discuss how I reconcile my advocacy of financial freedom with my authoritarianism—well, that will be no surprise:  On exactly the same grounds, I am zealously protective of the The Unz Review’s freedom of speech.

    I will probably be blogging plenty about Bitcoin.  Before I saw this comment, I already had three posts in my pipeline which are either about Bitcoin, or somehow related to it; but two of them are technical posts, with MathJax, etc., and one of them is my unusual take on the usual blogger’s call for subventions.  In due time, I intend to address all of the above issues in greater depth. ®

    ——————————
    Footnotes:

    1. Incidentally, I agree that we need legalized beatings—but I disagree about who should be beaten.  For example, an SS man should have the legal right to beat Messrs. Anglin and Auernheimer until they are both bleeding and unconscious.  Cf. the attitude towards women reflected in one of Reichsminister Dr. Goebbels’ remarks in My Part in Germany’s Fight (translated by Dr. Kurt Fiedler; 1940, 1979), p. 148 (explanatory footnote omitted):

    October 10th, 1932.

    An editor, who was involved in the Sklarek scandal, has infamously attacked the honour of my wife in a boulevard newspaper.  An S.S. man sends in his name to him, and gives him such a sound flogging with a horse-whip that he collapses bleeding profusely; the S.S. man then places his visiting card on the table and leaves the editorial office without interference from any of the creatures present.  This is the only way to treat these reputation murderers.  They do not hesitate even to defame a helpless woman, and therefore have to be flogged till they learn the A B C of behaviour.

    2. When I communicate with others on a deeper level, I tend to start establishing little parallels between personal anecdotes.  A ladyfriend once remarked to me on how stereotypically womanish this behavior is—as we were whiling away the hours intimately comparing our life experiences in an obsessive level of detail.  I’m not sure what that proves about me, for I had with her the sort of relationship which would have Mr. Anglin yelling for one or both of us to be beaten—make of it what you will.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
    • LOL: Yevardian, iffen
  39. These Chinese decisions remind me strongly of the famous “sea bans” (haijin) pursued under the Ming and the early Qing involving bans on maritime trade and ship construction. Intermittently issued, ineffectively enforced, trivially circumvented by the pirates and smugglers it was putatively aimed against – who were often aided by local officials in return for part of the spoils. The treasure fleets rotted away in their harbors and a few centuries later Europeans overspread the world. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

    From the long run perspective, it’s not clear that the Chinese decision to limit overseas trade and exploration just as Europe wholly embraced it was the wrong one.

    One of the chief consequences of these two different paths was that European societies increasingly became imperial, multiracial, multicultural in scope, to the extent that now even the homelands within Europe itself are increasingly diverse. The “facts on the ground” of diverse, mixed societies, even if they were originally founded on white supremacist lines, have gradually made it difficult to justify any assertion of European homogeneity or dominance. And with increasing black African presence and influence in the West, coupled with the population increase in Africa, it may be difficult to prevent a large wave of black African immigration into historically European societies in the near future.

    Whereas China may have dodged the issue entirely by clamping down 500 odd years ago.

    • Agree: tamo
  40. Yes. Pooh insists in screwing the pooch and copying the dumbest things USSR of old did, step by step.

    USSR:
    Build world’s largest army that will be never used
    Censor and jam all Western media
    Fight against pop music, blue jeans and other capitalist degeneracy
    Ban foreign currency

    Success!

    China:
    Build world’s largest navy that will be never used
    Censor and block Western internet
    Fight against computer games, K-pop music, catboys and other capitalist degeneracy
    Ban digital currency

    Even bigger success!

    It is all pity and shame – in the forthcoming Cold War II, China had much better prospects than old Soviet Union.
    With only little work, China can present itself as shining city on the hill, where people under the wise rule of the best and brightest of Communist party are free and safe to make money and have fun, while US is shithole of poverty, homelessness, gangs, drugs, prisons, endless fake elections, corruption, scams, rioting, looting and shooting.

    No way. Pooh wants country of tough masculine men who work in factory 996 and rest of their lives spend goose stepping and flag waving in cool uniforms and studying advanced Xi Jinping thought.
    All this crap that looks hot and sexy, but fails in real life every single time.

  41. @Ron Unz

    >Taken together China, Russia, and Iran

    LOL

    There is more evidence of UFO than of “superior Russian military technology” and Iran is complete basket case, tottering at the edge of bankruptcy, with regular riots and uprisings with 1000+ death toll, so infiltrated by from top to bottom it could not protect even their most critical military installations and personnel from constant sabotage and assassination.

    So the Cold War II is going to be axis of China+Russia+Iran (+ Venezuela and few more Latin American and African shitholes) against … US+EU+Japan+East Asia+India+rest of the world.

    Looks even more lopsided than round one.

  42. d dan says:

    This is quite amusing to read. In this article, Anatoly Karlin sounds like a very intelligent version of the low-IQ White supremacists. It is interesting to compare several copings about China’s rise:

    Japanese (e.g. Fukuyama): We won, it is the end of history.
    Jews (e.g. AaronB): No more science to discover, Chinese should research Taoism 2.0.
    American (too many to name): Chinese only steal and copy.
    Russian (e.g. Anatoly): Chinese ban my favorite research.

    OK, I consume my right to jab, so should at least contribute a serious point or two before I leave. Does Anatoly fully understand the policy rationale versus the scientific-limiting implications of the ban in those areas? Does he believe these represent all / most of the possible “world-transforming” research areas? If not, does he claim the ban necessarily implies Chinese inevitable / likely bad future decisions in others? What about quantum information science (an area I have done original research, and a likely transforming area) where China is currently leading? What about the innovative J-22 wind tunnel (to be launched 2022) which would provide both quantitative (bigger numbers) and qualitative (better numbers) leaps ahead of Russia/America for aerospace design (an area I know little about)? To name just a few.

    • Replies: @It's Ovrer
    , @mike99588
  43. As long as we can have a good life, who cares?

    As for changing the world, if it is not one’s self doing it, what, then, is the difference from watching TV? It is stupid. What is the difference between cheering for Musk and cheering for a sci-fi plot?

  44. @Passer by

    Exactly. Bitcoin allows one-to-one international transactions without the involvement of an intermediary currency, and that really helps small economies to control their balance of payments problems. Ultimately the west must destroy Bitcoin to protect the dollar.

    As for the timing, I’m guessing that the Eurasia countries, led by China and Russia, and with the balance being small economies, are about to roll-out their own equivalent to bitcoin for use in their trading block.

  45. angmoh says:
    @novoordo

    Interesting – this does align with much Xi-observer commentary on the ideology of the world’s most powerful man. He’s no futurist.

    You would assume CCP has looked at the experiences of Japan/Sth Korea for developmental lessons. If you’re inclined, you could cobble together a plausible story about the recent history of the tiger economies that puts a failure to adequately account for human nature at the core of their current issues. So makes sense for China to be concerned.

    If you take low TFR as a crude measure of evolutionary stress (how far the environment has diverged from the ancestral conditions we are adapted for) Japan/Sth Korea have in fact ‘progressed’ further and embraced societal upheaval more than anywhere else. So much so that many of their citizens are unable to thrive.

  46. @d dan

    Yea, so tell us right now what the “policy rationale” behind banning gene editing is?

    So that Chinese can not hyper-compete among one another in a stressful 996-like way to be superior, but at the cost of being the most impoverished shithole on Earth assuming other nations start using it?

    How fucking awesome.

    • Replies: @Hbd investor
  47. Measuring progress means attributing progress. Bietcoins are a meme, as much as “real money”, that one but an unruly yardstick of differences in power-wealth. Not a precise tool for measuring progress.

    Indeed the Chinese bring nothing new to the table, …from there to affirmating that the original(Western “Free” Enterprise) of the copy is legit is bad science.

    It is not about Dutch machines(they also “grow” synthetic meat), but about the vision behind it(greed in the short term). Societies that measure themselves by who accumulates power and wealth, influence, become loops into no derivatives, not progress.

    Please delete this message(again).

  48. @novoordo

    As if the focus on “dematerialization” and transhumanism won’t violent reverse itself to its antithesis in the West, replaced by their nemeses thru civil wars and revolutions.

  49. mike99588 says:
    @Not Raul

    Dunno, might ask your friends over at Samsung and Sony…

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  50. @drive by shitposter

    What do you want for a “free” China “liberated” by the US and Japan?

  51. mike99588 says:
    @d dan

    Our biases, based on our experience and economic theory(s), are that overbearing top down control is at least less efficient at production of novel goods if not outright destructive of the mentalities and small individual capital formation/accumulation needed for radical innovation. Even in a rich highly controlled environment, purges and pass overs of some kind tend to disrupt accumulated gains, like in some of our old behemouth companies, the smart tech radicals that are driven out and their accumulated “toys” and inventions side lined or liquidated.

    USSR for all its resource advantages in 1918 (people and land), in the end had few really new things to brag about by its collapse despite huge % capital investments. I’m sure AK can enlighten us on stuff beyond the fusion quadrapole components and RD170 engine line but, overall, Russia looked really primitive in the 1990s. Industrial stuff that my grandfather (61 years older) was more familiar with.

  52. Pericles says:
    @Passer by

    On the other hand, there now also seems to be a lot of positive interest in crypto from Big Finance, which as we know wags the dog over here.

  53. @Vishnugupta

    “a dramatic fall for Japan in industry after industry Consumer Electronics,Networking Hardware,Smartphones,Semi Conductors,Display Technologies etc”

    My understanding (gained admittedly from a single source, Eamonn Fingleton, who was FT Japan editor for 20+ years) is that Japan understands that to be at the top of the tech tree, “Producer Goods” is the thing. So the machines (like precise stepper motors used in semiconductor manufacture, or manufacturing robots) that create the products are what’s at the top of the tree. At the materials end, Japan dominates in hi-tech materials like carbon fibre (Toray) and ultra-pure silicon. Oh, and batteries. They seem to be quite important. And miniaturised motors.

    “Machines and mechanical appliances having individual functions are used in the production of other goods. “

    https://oec.world/en/profile/country/jpn

    “In 2019, Japan was the world’s biggest exporter of Machinery Having Individual Functions (\$20B), Photo Lab Equipment (\$11.9B), Large Construction Vehicles (\$10.8B), Hot-Rolled Iron (\$7.49B), and Electrical Capacitors (\$6.58B)”

    It has almost no indigenous energy sources (it spends \$126bn annually on oil, gas and coal imports) yet has a 2019 trade balance of \$42bn, although that’s well down on the \$1500bn pre-earthquake in 2009. It’s #1 on the OECD economic complexity index.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/exports

    “Exports from Japan grew by 26.2% yoy to JPY 6,606 billion in August 2021, compared with market estimates of 34% and after a 37.0% surge in July. This was the sixth straight month of double-digit growth in overseas sales, amid strong signs that the global trade continued to recover and low base effects from last year. Shipments of machinery jumped 31.8%, boosted by semicon machinery (34.3%), and power-generating machines (25.5%); while those of electrical machinery rose 17.1%, led by semiconductors, etc (14.9%). In addition, there were rises in sales of transport equipment (11.5%), driven by motor vehicles (4%), and parts of motor vehicles (28.7%); others (14.2%), due to scientific instruments (21.6%); chemicals (28.5%), driven by plastic materials (27.6%); and manufactured goods (43.6%), led by iron and steel products (83.6%). Sales rose to China (12.6%), Taiwan (42.6%), Hong Kong (23.4%), South Korea (31.4%), Thailand (54.2%), the US (22.8%), Germany (28.3%), and Australia (15.5%).”

    “Japan is now the poorest G7 country after Italy.”

    AK, your stats must be missing something. There’s no way the UK is in any way, shape or form ahead of Japan save in the quality of its real ale and maybe the beauty of what landscape hasn’t yet been built over.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  54. Blade says:

    It is very smart of China to focus on chip building. AKarlin is rambling as usual. There are many reasons why China focuses on chips, that’s because they are counting on coming:

    – IOT, smart cities will make the need grow exponentially,
    – Quantum computing is still in its infancy,
    – Smart cars,
    – AI will definitely be part of warfare (as in, soldier robots), ever-increasing the need for chips,

    The list can be extended. They already have the world’s largest market for all this. Just look at the case of Turkey and it is not difficult to see why it is very important to achieve independence in critical components of critical technologies. Ever since the Turkish drone industry started becoming world-class, Western ‘allies’ of Turkey have been implementing sanctions after sanctions to cripple its manufacturing (it is this behavior that made Turkey focus on the defense industry ever since the liberation of North Cyprus and the following Western sanctions). This is how they treat an ‘ally,’ that carries the refugee burden of their useless and unsuccessful wars. Just imagine what could they do to China if China was dependent on critical components. The US also understands that, so it encourages TSMC to move to the US and already blocked some deals involving Chinese overtake in the computer hardware industry.

    You are talking of software but the software is not that hard. Chinese already have alternatives to Facebook, Twitter, Uber, and so on. Not to forget that, if Chinese alternatives actually grew outside China and started taking over, the other side would (and did) ban their software as well. Also, just because ‘software ate the world’ doesn’t mean hardware focus is a bad idea; the software that ate the world still needs hardware and it is also mostly consumer tech that defines the phrase.

    Finally, in Japan’s case, there is something else going on, but I don’t know enough to figure what it is. Let’s not forget that Japan is actually a vassal of the US. Having more than one of the best-selling car brands, machine parts, hi-tech, some of the best electronics, and so on, it just doesn’t add up that if Japan isn’t better off than France or the UK. After all, which one of those G7 countries has a significant footprint in the software industry other than the US?

    In any case, China is run by very smart and deep-thinking people. That is my observation, and it is not just based on their tech focus but also their other policies. They don’t buy any BS and that is what really worries the West. If things go at this rate, it will be China that will isolate the West from the rest of the world, not the other way around. To think that they’d go after an industry so aggressively just because is foolish. China understands that the West wants hegemony, not equality or alternative systems and civilizations. Focus on acquiring advanced chip manufacturing capability is just an extension of this understanding.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon, Adept, tamo, JLK
  55. Levtraro says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    That seems like a very absurd idea to me, e.g. from Russia’s perspective – camaraderie aside, what reason is there for Russia to allow domestic commercial transactions in a foreign digital currency that is centrally controlled from the People’s Bank of China, which is not provably secure (I doubt it will be open source), and which will give China extreme surveillance capabilities over the entire Russian economy?

    Why would Russia use the DY for its internal transactions? Russia may save some DY as a store of value, use DY for some run-of-the-mill international transactions, or exchange it for Digital Rubles or paper Rubles for internal transactions. At the point of exchange, the PBC will lose all tracking capabilities.

    For any country, adopting the DY instead of the US dollar as reserve currency and/or the currency for international transactions does not mean giving the PBC surveillance capabilities over the entire economy of the country, unless the country does not have a national currency (like Ecuador, whose economy runs on US dollars).

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  56. @YetAnotherAnon

    2015, but still relevant, especially regarding business objectives. I write as the British asset stripping company Melrose is closing UK engineering factories at GKN, which it took over in 2018.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2015/03/08/why-this-super-advanced-tech-giant-dares-not-speak-its-name

    “Besides silicon, another key industry where Shin-Etsu is leading is rare-earth magnets. Although these are hardly a household word, they boast a unique combination of super-strong magnetism and light weight. This makes them vital components in several of the most exciting industries of the future, ranging from hybrid cars to mag-lev trains. Shin-Etsu’s rare-earth magnets are also a key technology in high-performance hard-disks. Meanwhile the company is also a leader in such other vital and fast-expanding tech businesses as photo-resists, ArFs resists, trilayer materials, LED packaging, and gallium-arsenide semiconductors – all seriously high-tech stuff.

    All in all Shin-Etsu provides excellent jobs for nearly twice as many workers as Facebook and more than twice as many as LinkedIn. Perhaps more impressively, it employs nearly five times as many people as Twitter. So why is Shin-Etsu not better known? Why indeed. In part the answer is that Japanese capitalism diverges sharply from the American version in its objectives and modus operandi, with the result that it is chronically underestimated in the Anglophone world. Whereas American companies have long been run strictly to maximize “shareholder value,” serious Japanese companies have no interest in boosting their share price but rather are run principally to provide well paid, secure jobs to their workers (unacclimatized Americans generally find this implausible but it is true — various hidden factors skew the incentive system for Japanese executives). One consequence is that whereas American investor relations executives routinely go to the ends of the earth to drum up interest in their corporations’ shares, Japanese companies feel no similar compulsion. On the contrary, they are inclined to regard foreign shareholders as unwelcome and uninformed meddlers. This applies in spades to American and British investors. Like the German system, the Japanese system is bank-based, and shareholders are treated as little more than an afterthought. If a Japanese corporation needs money, its knowledgeable and patient keiretsu bank will pony up the money. Although many Japanese corporations (not least Shin-Etsu) go through the motions of providing financial information in English, this reflects more a concern for general public relations than any focused investor relations strategy.

    Another reason why Shin-Etsu doesn’t advertise its strengths is more controversial: it fears a backlash from the U.S. defense establishment. Traditionally the U.S. Defense Department has worked to ensure that the United States maintains self-sufficiency in all key materials, components, and machinery needed for its defense. If a hollowed-out America these days boasts any serious remaining capability in making monocrystalline silicon, I, for one, am not aware of it.

    Let’s sum up on the contrast between the Japanese job-based enterprise system (which has been copied by Korea and, to a lesser extent, Taiwan and now increasingly China) and the American one. Surely the American one is better overall? Not necessarily. The fortunes the American system creates for a few — and most of them are more lucky than particularly inspired — often prove ephemeral. Think back to how many once-vaunted U.S. digital-revolution companies went on to bite the dust. Inktomi, Netscape, Worldcom, Pets.com, AoL — where are they now? The American system may be good at creating vast fortunes but at regular intervals such fortunes are swept away like so many sandcastles on the beach. Companies like Shin-Etsu don’t get swept away. Founded in the mid-1920 to make fertilizers, it has consistently built its business over the years and has probably never been stronger than it is today.”

    • Thanks: Voltarde
  57. Levtraro says:

    Not solid info but it seems most of the bitcoin has been mined in China, with huge electricity costs and burning of coal. China has now banned mining for cripto and will, they say, energetically seek all miners: “”All the illegal financial activities are strictly banned and will be eliminated in line with laws,” said the PBC, noting that those who committed crimes by engaging in relevant illegal financial activities shall be prosecuted for liabilities.” How will cripto enthusiasts cope with the banning of mining cripto in the place where most mining seem to happen?

    Long-term, the world economy has been defined by accelerating dematerialization.

    Lol! Yeah most of the world economy will be guys sitting in front of keyboards and screens.

    Essentially, China is eliminating financial risks (i.e. speculation) and supporting the Digital Yuan, pretty much straightforward logical policies.

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235018.shtml

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  58. My biggest prediction is for Laying Flat to be an almost unstoppable trend of anti-institutional, anti-rational-organizational action, analogous to parallel economies (agorism) in the parts of the West where the whole consumption-surveillance system is being set-up.

    What various elites think to be the wave of the future (hyper-modern automated production, transhumanism and woke ideology) just won’t be, and it’s just the excessive complexity cliodynamics have predicted after any complex society has crossed the turning point of decline. The reversion to a less complex, more human, and definitely more organic societal form* cannot be avoided, and this is enough to disabuse everyone experiencing this of the notions of “infinite linear progress”, something the elite CCP cadres are still clinging to thru their interpretation of Marxism.

    *It can end up be a Jin-dynasty like Taoist attitude in China, 19th century with better tech in the US, and neo-medievalism in Europe.

  59. I’m pleased to see that Karlin is moderating his sino triumphalism, but he is doing it for the wrong reason. “Crypto” is fraud, that will end up ruining lots of little people.

    There are better reasons to be sceptical of China, strating with atrocious demographics.

  60. Passer by says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Why would the US want to ban Huawei’s bid data and cloud computing then? Try to stop Europe on cooperation with Huawei in this field as well? Because it is a joke? They don’t do that for some other Huawei businesses. You forget that people learn, and look at where China was 10 years ago. Software is now Huawei’s fastest growing business. They are moving away from hardware.

    Huawei pivots to software with Google-like ambitions

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/huawei-focuses-on-software-as-us-sanctions-hurt-hardware-business.html

    • Agree: tamo
  61. @Levtraro

    Russia may save some DY as a store of value, use DY for some run-of-the-mill international transactions, or exchange it for Digital Rubles or paper Rubles for internal transactions.

    It can hold DY just as it holds yuan now. I fail to see the difference. They have a 1:1 peg, both are/will be backed by China.

    Russia will indeed probably transition to a digital ruble sometime in the mid-2020s.

    For any country, adopting the DY instead of the US dollar as reserve currency and/or the currency for international transactions does not mean giving the PBC surveillance capabilities over the entire economy of the country…

    That sort of capability is AFAIK the entire point of DY – getting a birds eye view of transactions across the economy in real time. Makes monetary policy much easier. Spending getting a bit laggy? Airdrop everyone some DY-gibs!

    You can send yuan and most other currencies electronically through masses of fintech apps, some of them Western, some Chinese, some Russian, I am sure the Indians and even the Iranians have their own equivalents at this point.

    How will cripto enthusiasts cope with the banning of mining cripto in the place where most mining seem to happen?

    By moving it to Kazakhstan and buying Bitcoin from Chinese forced sellers at discount. Some people are being screwed over, but it’s not “crypto enthusiasts.”

    Lol! Yeah most of the world economy will be guys sitting in front of keyboards and screens.

    This, but unironically.

  62. Passer by says:

    China is making it a priority to manufacture semiconductors at the density achieved by TSMC (which are built using Dutch machines). No doubt a very important undertaking. The technological equivalent of grinding in video games.

    Nope, China is making a priority of many things in tech, this is only one of them.

    And they did not do that because they are “nerds who only know grinding on chips”, but because their hand was forced by US chip embargo. Have you been living under a rock? They did not want it to be that way, to discover America again, until the US chip embargo forced them to rely on their own chips.

  63. Adept says:
    @Felix Keverich

    China’s demographic slowdown is not nearly as bad as Japan’s, S.Korea’s, Taiwan’s, Singapore’s, etc. Most of Europe is also much worse off. Germany has been well below replacement for more than 50 years, and has spent decades at 1.4 and 1.3! Somehow it has managed to survive and even thrive.

    In fact, I believe that the Chinese TFR is higher — yes, higher — than the white American TFR. And it’s also more likely to increase, whereas white American TFR is doubtless going to keep hitting new lows.

    China has demographic problems, to be sure, but to understand those problems as somehow uniquely bad is a mistake. China is better off than many, if not most, other countries, even in this respect.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  64. @drive by shitposter

    China:
    Build world’s largest navy that will be never used
    Censor and block Western internet
    Fight against computer games, K-pop music, catboys and other capitalist degeneracy
    Ban digital currency

    Even bigger success!

    I don’t think this is entirely fair. China spends much less on its military than the USSR and it obviously needs a powerful navy (there’s a certain renegade province offshore + in the long run needs to secure maritime trade routes). Many countries censor the Internet to varying extents, and it’s certainly a bad idea for China to give Google/Apple/etc. – companies that ultimately serve the US geopolitical agenda – access to the Chinese market and to details on Chinese citizens. I think it would be a good idea for Russia to clamp down on them too sooner rather than later. Those who really want and need the “Western Internet” can install VPNs. Chinese teens spend much more time on vidya than Americans, so doing something to try to curb the addiction is also not unreasonable.

    But yes, the problem is a classical one with technocratic authoritarianism. You can get too fond of the banhammer.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  65. @Adept

    China’s TFR has been below 1,5 since 2000. And there is good chance entire country will slip below 1 in a decade or two, as China continues to rapidly urbanize.

    In absolute terms they recorded 12 million births in 2020, and this year will see a big decline to 10 million. By 2030 China will be producing 5-7 million babies, which compares to 3-4 million annual number of births in the US!

    • Replies: @Adept
    , @showmethereal
  66. @Felix Keverich

    Anyone who keeps saying cryptos are frauds, have you read the comment by Raches? The real value of cryptos lies in its dissociation from state institutions and the freedom of action they provides.

    And from an Austrian economics perspective, fiat currencies controlled by central banks & treasuries, along with fractional reserve banking, are larger and more pervasive frauds. Crypto is one of the exits from these monetary regimes.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
    , @Ron Unz
  67. @Anatoly Karlin

    You can get too fond of the banhammer.

    That is what AaronB has been saying, and he sees what many people will do after getting tired of them.

  68. @It's Ovrer

    It’s banned in the US too

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2015.17858

    Why is it banned?

    Because we haven’t proved that it is safe and we have barely done any research on stuff like crispr, we are still experimenting crispr on animals using it on a human now is completely unacceptable

    And the baby that Karlin is talking about is embryo selection which is completely different than gene editing and it is completely legal in china

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  69. Japan is now the poorest G7 country after Italy.

    What numbers say that?

    If you’re using GDP per capita, then exactly the same reasoning makes Liechtenstein and Monaco richer by far than any of the G7.

    Software and tech gimmicks may make a few companies and opportunists a lot of money, but in a very real world made of very real things I’d put my money on China and whoever else makes enough stuff.

    Exactly what made the US the indisputable world power a long time ago.

  70. @drive by shitposter

    You don’t seem to grasp the depth and cunning of Xi’s mind. Making life in China less fun will drive the less conformist Chinese to emigrate. That will select the population of China for conformity. It will also infest other countries with nonconformist new citizens who will wreak havoc nonstop in their new homes. It’s a winning strategy!

  71. @YetAnotherAnon

    Exactly European countries have weak economies they are wealthy because they can slap a Gucci label on a \$5 purse and sell it for \$1000 to East Asians, same thing with cars

    They export some tech stuff, but these are protective markets, captive sales

    But on a whole their tech is not competitive

    Pretty sure Japan and China could build cars faster, more high tech and more luxurious than Bugatti but consumers will still chose Bugatti for the name

  72. I can recall around the turn of the 21st century that it was fashionable to deprecate manufacturing as a dirty, old-technology industry and that the future was in services. It is self-evidently absurd to deprecate manufacturing as low-technology, and global trade then and now was dominated by manufactured goods (along with energy, itself an industrial and capital equipment intensive process).

    Still, while this view was clearly a cope intended to rationalize poor Western policy decisions, I wonder if it wasn’t wrong so much as it was early. As Karlin notes in his OP, the global economy is asymptotically dematerializing. The future of industry appears to be like the past of agriculture. Vitally important, highly traded, technologically intensive and innovative–but an inexorably shrinking share of the world economy. As its share shrinks, more countries will choose to protect the sector for strategic or political reasons because the benefits of trade openness are less important than they once were.

    It turns out the turn of the century view was not new. John Maynard Keynes observed as far back as the 1930s the growth of the domestic service economy slowly but inexorably displacing industry as the largest source of commerce, and even before the First World War it was observed that Britain’s trade balance only remained positive owing to its exports of “invisibles” (e.g. shipping). The trade in services twenty years ago appeared to be a triviality, but today with the US tech megacaps dominating global cloud computing it looks ever more important.

    Incidentally Bill Gates chose to go into software because as far back in the 1970s he concluded that hardware was an ever depreciating commodity. He reasoned that it would be unwise to compete in a business with diminishing returns, and in 2004 he (in)famously claimed that hardware was going to be close to free. Fast forward half a generation and you can run an effective home theater system using a \$30 Raspberry Pi.

    As for Japan, while it’s true that it bet on hardware as opposed to software, this misses the bigger picture. First, some of its signature high profile hardware bets failed in the most dramatic fashion. The Fifth Generation Computer initiative was a miserable failure blown out of the water by Moore’s Law. Smaller US bets on disrupting x86 CPUs in the same era also failed (Intel Itanium and IBM POWER for instance). Second, and more importantly, Japan’s relative ranking is not new. For the past generation Japan has remained at the bottom of the G7 in critical measures of productivity such as GDP per employed person and GDP per hour worked. Because this was as true at the peak of the Japanese bubble as it is today, Japanese failure in software is not an explanation.

    Germany is today a considerably richer country than Japan and has even overtaken the United States in GDP per hour worked, and in addition to being weak in software (SAP and not much else) it barely even competes in ICT hardware (Infineon). So it’s certainly possible to be highly prosperous based on hardware (just as some countries are highly prosperous based on commodities), though no doubt there are scale limits since the global appetite for capital goods and luxury consumer products has limits.

    Japan does have many underappreciated economic strengths as has been highlighted by some commenters in this thread, but the Eamonn Fingleton view that it’s a secret economic colossus is plainly wrong. Japan remains the dominant producer of highly refined intermediate industrial inputs, continues to be the leading exporter of capital goods, and the Japanese car industry remains the best in the world. But several other Japanese industries have effectively collapsed in the face of competition, and the Japanese economy overall remains mired by low productivity which appears to stem from inefficient factor allocation such as labor-intensive agriculture along with a greatly overstaffed low productivity service sector.

    The remaining fortresses of the Japanese economy are also under siege. Japan’s motor industry is unsuccessful in the luxury car segment, and now it faces disruption from EVs which Japan’s car executives have long dismissed (on admittedly reasonable grounds). Japan’s position in capital goods faces intensifying competition from South Korea and China. The country requires a fundamental shakeup, but none appears in the offering. All Shinzo Abe really offered was stimulus, depreciation, and the mobilization of women into the workforce. Now they claim they’re going to try immigration–good luck with that.

  73. I don’t always comment, but when I do it’s to call you out 🙂

    – You are viewing this from a too narrow viewpoint, crypto. China will make it in every meaningful way.

    – Also you are saying that the one sphere where China takes the lead and will be in a dominant position, the Digiyuan, is irrelevant.

    I guess this logic would imply that the US is on the cusp of a new boom, because people there use Bitcoin more than anywhere.

    At the end of the day, all crypto is just a currency, not a good one at it. It’s more of a stock to be bought and sold than used as currency, and will continue to be that. Meanwhile Digiyuan will be real currency.

    This article is the same as being hyped of a FIRE economy. Even FIRE has more substance than crypto, because RE is real and crypto is a volatile stock.

    So crypto passes China. Big deal, less speculators in the market. The places where crypto booms will still be buying their things from China, and probably paying in yuan or Digiyuan (DY).

    Crypto is not the next big thing, it’s not steam, electricity, the internet or anything comparable of actual value. Crypto is simply the next big stock, which will hang around.

    I’m willing to wager a bet that the DY will have orders of magnitude higher use as currency than all the crypto combined. When, well 5 years after first being 50% China wide. So probably in 6/7 years.

    In all of these years crypto has simply remained an investment tool more than a currency and I don’t see that changing much.

  74. @Yellowface Anon

    So your argument in favor of crypto is to say two things that are wrong.

    Bravo.

    The real value in crypto lies in disintermediation, and central banks are fine actually.

    Freedom is only cared for by a minority of the global population, and most people with a preference for freedom lack the discipline to achieve it. Are you curling this site over the Tor network from a public hotspot on an old Thinkpad with LibreBoot and an open source operating system? I doubt it.

    “Austrian” opposition to fiat currency and central banking is mere religious fanaticism totally divorced from reality. Its baleful influence over right-wing dissidents is a curse.

    • Replies: @VVV
  75. @Adept

    They can also pump out propaganda and incentives to make more children

    And yes this works when the country has full control of the media, see the nuclear family during the cold war with Russia

    • Agree: Adept, Ron Unz
    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  76. Adept says:
    @Felix Keverich

    2020 and 2021 may well be outliers, for obvious reasons. I don’t think that you can extrapolate to 2030 from 2021. Besides, China has a deep population reservoir, they have quite a lot of asabiyyah, and, as @Hbd investor notes, they have tools at their disposal that other nations will not use. Their position is hardly uniquely terrible.

    Speaking of annual births in the US: By 2030, how many will be white? (“Whites are disappearing, and here’s why that’s a good thing:” https://theconversation.com/children-of-color-already-make-up-the-majority-of-kids-in-many-us-states-128499 ) Already, American children under 10 years of age are majority nonwhite.

    The American experience will ultimately show that immigration is, at best, a short-term fix that ultimately degrades human capital. That it is, in other words, bad medicine.

    China may blaze a different path, and in the long run I think that they will benefit from it.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
  77. @Adept

    2020 and 2021 may well be outliers, for obvious reasons. I don’t think that you can extrapolate to 2030 from 2021.

    Actually, we can extrapolate with high degree of accuracy, because the number of fertile-age women for 2030 is already known. The only uncertainty revolves around TFR, which is highly unlikely to up anyway.

    • Replies: @Adept
  78. Ron Unz says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    The real value of cryptos lies in its dissociation from state institutions and the freedom of action they provides.

    I’m absolutely no expert on cryptos, but it seems to me the strong interest in them is based upon two separate and unconnected factors.

    First, the anonymity and disassociation from state institutions that you mention.

    Second, the gigantic speculative bubble that has made some people very wealthy over the last few years, and persuaded other people to buy them in hopes of doing the same.

    I think the second factor is what has generated virtually all the interest and enthusiasm.

    Here’s a thought-experiment. Suppose the value of Bitcoin and the other cryptos suddenly dropped by 95% and afterwards remained relatively stable, moving upwards or downwards by only a few percent.

    Under that scenario, cryptos would still retain all the benefits of anonymity and disassociation that you cite. But I suspect that public interest in the technology would plummet by 99%.

  79. Adept says:
    @Felix Keverich

    The only uncertainty revolves around TFR, which is highly unlikely to up anyway.

    But this highly uncertain. China’s 2030 TFR — relative to 2019 — can rise, can remain more or less the same, or can fall. All three outcomes are within the realm of possibility. China is in fact almost unique in that it has a very good shot at boosting native TFR.

  80. @Ron Unz

    Suppose there was an exciting new technology which promised to network all of the world’s computers. Previously this technology had been limited to academic and military applications, but now this technology was newly commercialized. The technology is at yet poorly understood, expensive, and with few useful applications. But people grasp that this is the future.

    Talented young people pile into the sector, and money backs them. Before long an investment mania ensues, and astonishingly in just five years the value of the sector climbs 400%. People with little understanding and even less interest in technology pile in because they fear missing out. But skeptics keep pointing out that few applications are widely in use, and fewer still are actually making money. One of the world’s most famous economists dimly forecasts that less than a decade in the future that this exciting new technology will be apparent to be only as important as the fax machine had been. The smart money bails for the exits, dubious firms collapse, and in under two years the value of the entire sector collapses by four-fifths.

    With public interest gone, what do you suppose the future for this technology might be?

    • LOL: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  81. Vivek. says:

    India may well be able to get the better of China without having to resort to waiting for genetically enhanced superhumans in some kind of weird sci fi timeline. We may be able to accomplish it by cynically riding Uncle Sam’s coattails.

    Here is one scenario I envision could play out based on current geopolitical trends. What is going to happen in the medium term is economic divestment from China as a manufacturing base by American and American controlled proxies’ multinationals and their reshoring or relocation to other low cost nations. Since the USA controlled or allied sphere includes just about every relevant nation state aside from Russia and China itself, this will have huge repercussions for Chinese economic and thus political stability.

    Political alliances will also be strengthened to hamper China’s ability to bust out of its immediate littoral and secure shipping lanes and resources globally. China is actually in an unenviable geographical position, as it is surrounded on all sides by nations that will naturally align with the American block in the coming geopolitical standoff, with the notable exception of Russia. It is also completely unable to safeguard the sea-lanes on which it depends for vital resources.

    The way I ultimately see the situation playing it is all of the above weakening the Chinese economy and creating social unrest, unrest which will of course be fueled whenever possible by Western intelligence agencies, corporations, and the general American dominated cultural zeitgeist. Once the Chinese regime is weak, I could imagine the West manufacturing some crisis to justify an aggressive attempt at all out regime change in China.

    That would likely happen by imposing airtight sanctions against China and completely closing off the sea-lanes to starve the country into submission. I actually could see China being able to survive such a blockade, but only if it is has access to Russian resources. However, I think it’s pretty clear that taking back control of Russia or at least forcing it into neutrality is part, parcel and prerequisite for America’s overall plan to vanquish China and something the West would be intent on accomplishing for its own sake. Without overland access to Russian resources I don’t believe China would have any option but to capitulate in the face of a naval blockade and complete worldwide political isolation. Even if the CCP tried to resist to the last starving Chinese a la the WWII Japanese regime I don’t believe the coddled, consumerist 1 child Chinese populace would let it. China would have to surrender, whether through external pressure or internal chaos.

    What would happen to a subjugated China? It has the potential to be way too powerful if even nominally independent, so I doubt a puppet government of the type installed in Iraq and Afghanistan would be allowed to rule the country lest the puppet regime goes rogue. Instead I envision a return to the paradigm China has enjoyed for the better part of the last 1000 years: foreign rule and an imported managerial class and occupation force to keep the populace in check. That’s how it worked for centuries under the Mongols and that’s mostly how it worked for centuries under the Manchus until as recently as 1912. China is a kind of Mr Jekyll/Mr Hyde in that it has the potential to be overwhelmingly powerful and dangerous for world stability but at the same time the Chinese are a rather placid people on an individual level and acquiesce to foreign rule readily, much more similar to the Japanese in this way than to rowdy Afghans and Arabs.

    India is of course likely to play a pivotal role both in reigning China in prior to regime change and helping manage the country afterwards. The USA would have neither the logistics or human capital to form the bulk of the managerial and occupation forces that would be required to govern a country China’s size whereas India shares a common border and has a youthful and rapidly growing population.

    In fact, India will have a massive excess of young men in the coming decades due to selective abortions, so the above scenario would be an incredible geopolitical and societal boon. Not only would China’s capitulation remove the single largest geopolitical thorn from India’s side, but it could also solve a large chunk of the demographic problem. Many of these excess young men could be sent over to China to form the bulk of the administration and occupation personnel, acquiring Chinese partners in the process. The Indian man/Chinese woman pairing is extremely compatible and already one of the most common and rapidly growing inter-ethnic patterns in the world, from HK and Singapore to elite universities and corporations in the United States.

    In fact, such a development would just be history repeating itself, as much the same kind of dynamic existed under the Mongols although at that time Arabs and Central Asian muslims played the part that I foresee Indians playing in the near future. Just look up the “Semu” under the Yuan dynasty.

  82. Ron Unz says:

    All the top AI talent is in the US, as are the three leading AI research outfits (DeepMind, OpenAI, Google AI). Tesla and SpaceX are American. Its Woke drama and government dysfunction are spectacles that conceal ineluctable American strength across the global O-Ring sector.

    I’d add a strong note of caution on these issues, simply based upon the undeniable fact that America and the West so totally dominates global media and propaganda. Given such control, it’s sometimes difficult to distinguish perceptions from reality, and only occasionally do undeniable elements of the latter allow us to calibrate our metrics.

    Take the Covid epidemic. As you yourself noted last year, in 2019 the US had been internationally ranked as the country best able to cope with a global epidemic, with the leading West European countries placed just below. Meanwhile, China was far down, considered quite mediocre. However, the reality turned out to be exactly the opposite.

    Similarly, endless American propaganda had probably persuaded much of the world that by spending twenty years and a couple of trillion dollars, we had at least established a temporarily-stable Afghan regime allowing us to depart without rapid humiliation. Instead, it collapsed without a fight after just a week or two, leading to exactly that sort of total humiliation.

    Our propaganda organs have persuaded or at least coerced many Americans into accepting the most totally ridiculous beliefs on issues of race, gender, and various other Woke matters, and have similarly spread these ideological doctrines to many of our vassal-states, dominated by our electronic and social media. However, these beliefs are mostly crazy, and their widespread apparent dominance should make us very cautious in accepting other beliefs.

    Take the AI issue, about which I know almost nothing. From what I’ve read, TikTok gained enormous ground against Facebook, Google’s Youtube, and other American social media giants because its AI was so vastly superior in serving up enticing videos. Doesn’t this indicate that Chinese AI and software is not necessarily as far behind as you suggest?

    When our information about the world seems to be very heavily skewed by propaganda, strongly tilted in one direction, we must be careful to compensate for that factor in our evaluations.

    For example, is Tesla really one of the best examples you can cite of tremendous American success and future dominance? Just a few years ago, wouldn’t many people have exactly said the same thing about Theranos, which was widely hailed for revolutionizing medical testing?

  83. Ron Unz says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Suppose there was an exciting new technology which promised to network all of the world’s computers…With public interest gone, what do you suppose the future for this technology might be?

    Sure, but the Internet actually does something useful as an effective channel for the transmission of information, which everyone always recognized. I remember back around 2000, I published a short piece in the San Jose Mercury News pointing out that a bit down the road everyone in the world would have access to free video-calls, which was a totally obvious prediction.

    I just fail to see what benefits crypto has over government-controlled digital currency for 99+% of the population of any country.

    • Agree: mal, Yevardian
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  84. @Vivek.

    Good for you to see what the American Imperial system is planning for China. But the critical obstacle to this is the reality that time is running out for the US, especially on the domestic front. So your “Aryan domination over Chinese” daydream is still far from certain.

  85. polistra says:

    Banning GMO people and banning Bitcoin are GOOD decisions, not bad decisions. China makes a lot of bad decisions, but these aren’t among them.

  86. @Ron Unz

    What happened to Internet (what Thorfinnsson has brought up as the counterexample) is the hype being gradually replaced by substantial interest, need and uses. Cryptos will undergo the same especially as a medium of transaction and a form of savings being “hidden” from the state’s surveillance and micromanagement, unlike mandatory CBDCs. But this won’t be seen before currency resets of FDR’s gold ownership ban kind happen.

  87. @Hbd investor

    And the baby that Karlin is talking about is embryo selection which is completely different than gene editing and it is completely legal in china

    I didn’t say they were. But I was contrasting the US achieving a first while China goes a step back.

    But on a whole their tech is not competitive

    Cope.

    Exactly European countries have weak economies they are wealthy because they can slap a Gucci label on a \$5 purse and sell it for \$1000 to East Asians, same thing with cars

    PR is also a talent.

    For instance, the Scandis had the bright and very creative idea of slapping some rocks and kelp on tiny pieces of meat/fish and calling it “New Nordic Cuisine.”

    These restaurants are now a status symbol and earn these countries tourist dollars and prestige.

    Pretty sure Japan and China could build cars faster, more high tech and more luxurious than Bugatti but consumers will still chose Bugatti for the name

    Lexus is very competitive AFAIK. Japanese electronics used to have very high cachet back in the 1990s-00s. So this is just wrong.

    Japan seems to be having trouble keeping up though.

    Even Russia seems to be having much more successful in commercial aerospace. The Americans are certainly not “repressing” Japanese aerospace industry more than the Russian one (which can’t even use many US-manufactured components after 2014).

  88. @Ron Unz

    The benefit is similar to the internet itself–disintermediation.

    By decentralizing financial ledgers, crypto can do away with the intermediary role played by financial institutions. Banks and payment processors will become irrelevant for processing payments.

    Eventually, it will diminish demand for currency itself. As more and more assets are placed on the blockchain, it will be possible to seamlessly and instantly trade from one blockchain into an another. You can already see this in action on emerging decentralized crypto exchanges in which one can trade from one blockchain directly into another (for instance, Bitcoin directly into Ethereum) without the intermediary step of selling one asset for currency (say, the US Dollar) and then using that currency to purchase the other blockchain. Here is one of many such examples: https://rubic.finance

    Presently of course the only utility of this is to trade from one cryptocurrency into another. But eventually the blockchain will grow to encompass other assets. Securities can for instance be placed on the blockchain, and thus in the future it would be possible to do something like directly swapping S&P 500 futures for 10 Year US Treasuries with no requirement to use the Dollar for intermediation.

    One day you may very well be able to instantly generate on demand a debit against your home equity in order to purchase lumber at the Home Depot. You can do that today of course with a home equity line of credit, but in this future you will not need to approach a bank to gain a HELOC and the merchant in question will take possession of a credit against your home equity directly rather than Dollars.

    On a long timescale you can therefore expect crypto to eat the world, and the benefits will be lower cost and more accessible. National currencies of course are unlikely to disappear, and within economies they may function as a reserve asset the way the Dollar (or, previously, gold) functions as an international reserve asset.

    Presently of course the technology has few applications beyond speculation, (allegedly) anonymous payments, and evading capital controls. As the technology matures, and to be fair much maturation is needed, that will change.

    Just as with the internet, this is also unlikely to lead to the flourishing freedom that libertarians predict. If crypto is the real deal, then powerful forces will likely gain control over it.

  89. Mersaux says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Switzerland is really impressive.

    Btw if you count Europe as one (including Switzerland, Uk) it isn’t doing that. Although still far worse than America

  90. @Thorfinnsson

    I just need to let you know that I am not a full-on libertarian. Placing liberty above all else, free-for-ll markets and NAP are poor organizational principles if those are done for any singificant length of time. But my point is the simple realization that, if your elite enemies have a Randian mindset, you can only counter them with Randian strategies (massive individualization and decentralization). Cryptos are useful as currencies of dissidence and struggle, in addition to the way you explained here.

  91. Now, this is beyond ridiculous. Let’s look at individual arguments.
    China bans gene-edited babies. In fact, beyond correcting a few known deleterious mutations in a handful of genes (out of 25-30,000 humans have), we don’t know what to edit to get desired results. What’s more, it is pretty clear that anything useful (e.g., intelligence or creativity) is determined by a combination of hundreds of genes. In reality, we don’t know which exactly, and what alleles are beneficial in those combinations. Current marketing of gene-edited babies is nothing but an attempt by a few unscrupulous operators to relieve some rich, ignorant, and gullible customers of their money. In brief, thieves stealing from other thieves. In essence, China bans something that exists only in fevered minds of some cool-aid drinkers. This ban, apart from curbing a particular pseudo-scientific fraud, would do as much harm as the ban of flying spaghetti monster.

    China bans crypto-currency. The whole crypto craze is a big Ponzi scheme: a self-appointed currency backed by nothing is fraud, pure and simple. China banned this particular kind of fraud. There are many others, so fraudsters would find alternative ways to fool the fools and fleece them. There was never a shortage of fraudulent schemes throughout human history.

    China does not embrace AI bubble. Thing is, much trumpeted “successes” of AI are a few dozen minuscule steps forward in select areas, that happened at the same time as thousands of similar or much greater steps forward by human intelligence. We are at least 20-30 years from making anything comparable in power to human in the realm of intelligence.

    • Thanks: tamo
    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  92. songbird says:
    @Vivek.

    Looking at maps too much can be a mistake.

    The US has incredibly providential geography, but that has just led to its wealth, which has made it an attractive target for migrants. Since its demographic base has been undermined, it now lacks the stability which its geography has given it historically.

    Very easy for a hegemonic foreign power to undermine it, should it ever chose to. When Japan tried funding black power movements, it was way too early.

    I think the elite in America want to stay in power and not risk all in order to turn the country into India’s golem. I mean, suppose they lost, would they want to live in India?

    • Replies: @Vivek.
  93. sous-vide says:
    @BRK2

    what I got from the thread is that crypto is libtard money-technology

  94. songbird says:
    @AnonfromTN

    +5-10 IQ points seems pretty doable.

    The first question seems to be, is it worth the fitness costs of sperm not having to run its natural gauntlet?

    Second question would be, how can you be sure that they are not selecting your embryos for their own favored traits and not for yours?

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
  95. Sean says:

    John Mearsheimer: I think, from China’s point of view, it’s best not to confront the US in any serious way right now. China will be in a much better position to confront the US in 20 years

    An indication of the relative technological sophistication of China by then may be available from this piece of news from a few months ago https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/physics/china-demonstrates-most-powerful-quantum-computer/

    [I]n 1994, the mathematician Peter Shor published a quantum algorithm that can break the security assumption of the most common algorithms of asymmetric cryptography. This means that anyone with a sufficiently large quantum computer could use this algorithm to derive a private key from its corresponding public key, and thus, falsify any digital signature.

  96. I’ve had this dicussion about China with my financial advisor. Both my wife (who is Japanese) and him have brought this issue to my attention. It is our consensus that China is entering a Japan-like stagnation that will last indefinitely. But China will not crash, just like Japan will not crash. However, China as a growth story for investment opportunities is OVER.

    I do believe China will forge ahead technologically to match the West. They are developing their own turbofan jet engines as well as their own semiconductor OEM’s (deposition, etching, and litho equipment) to compete with the likes of AMAT, LamNovellus, and possibly ASML. The latter will be very difficult as EUV process is extremely complex and ASML is the only company to have perfected it, only after 20 years of development work. Nikon and others gave up.

    Just because a country stagnates economically does not mean it cannot keep the pace technologically. Japanese made industrial robots are still the best in the world. It was a Japanese maker, I forget which one, that bought Boston Dynamics from Google when the latter was not able to make anything of it (probably because they are too “converged” these days to innovate much).

    The “designer” baby thing is not much of a thing right now. To engineer traits such as cognitive ability and executive function (the only traits that matter on a substantial level), requires denovo whole chromosome fabrication because of the number of genes that have to be fabricated/changed. We’re 15-29 years away from this capability. This is plenty of time for the Chinese to change their mind on this stuff.

    In the meantime, I do hear rumors through the cryonics/life extension grapevine about a new cryonics organization in China. I know guys who have sold cryogenic dewers to them.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    , @Passer by
  97. @Levtraro

    The entire goal of the CBDC push is to gain control.

    That control will include small countries that can’t produce their own CBDC or even if they can, the major CBDC’s will swamp them. The intent is to get rid of nuisance currencies and eventually to get rid of smaller countries as they get taken over by one world gov’t tactics.

    After the dust settles, the major players will have the only CBDC’s world wide, with smaller country’s central banks destroyed and their currency ruined. The intent is to have a world full of serf under feudalism 2.0 and the smaller countries will be collateral damage.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Levtraro
  98. @Thorfinnsson

    The Fifth Generation Computer initiative was a miserable failure blown out of the water by Moore’s Law.

    It didn’t exactly get that far, rather it demonstrates a particularly bad way to do top down industrial policy. It’s one thing to arrange for cars, a long existing concept to be granted the resources they needed in post-WWII Japan (although Honda wasn’t one of the anointed companies), or allow the founder of Sony to finagle enough foreign exchange to license transistor technology which was a straightforward replacement for vacuum tubes, quite another to decide exactly which technology would be the future of computing.

    The Fifth Generation project made an all in bet on logic programming (think Prolog), and that turned out to mostly be a dead end, part of a general “symbolic” approach to AI that was not able to fulfill its promises, at least for now. That its specialized chips got beaten by general purpose ones thanks in part to Moore’s Law but more likely Dennard scaling on top of that (what ended in the ’00s and stopped CPUs from continuing to get a lot faster) didn’t matter since they were not designed to do something that turned out to be really useful at the time, or maybe ever.

    Compare to the way DARPA does things (once upon a time I was told in early days of AI research”bet on men and shovel money to them”, although that sort of thing changes frequently) and the Rodney Brooks style of robotics which saved the MIT AI Lab while the Standford one died on the vine (it’s been reconstituted last time I checked, but with no institutional continuity), or today’s hottest thing, Machine Learning (ML).

  99. @RoatanBill

    Which basically means you need a new smallholder (in American terms, yeoman) economics if you want to exit neo-manorialism, and that means cryptos.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  100. @Yellowface Anon

    Crypto’s are just another fiat Ponzi scheme pushed by those that can make a killing on it by raking in dollars, euro, etc from people that are driven by greed. The speculators spend what is considered by many to be money on something ethereal with no tangible reality backing it up. They are relying on the greater fool to purchase their token for more than they paid for it.

    Does it cost near \$50,000 to “mine” a Bitcoin? If the answer is no, then the hype over bitcoin is just another tulip bubble. The use of the mining analogy is, in itself, a major indicator that the whole thing is a con.

    Ron Unz is correct – take away the speculative aspect and the whole thing dies down to where the blockchain behind it that does make sense becomes something to invest in, but the value of the tokens crashed into the dirt.

    • Agree: AnonfromTN
    • Replies: @Realist
    , @Thorfinnsson
  101. Realist says:
    @RoatanBill

    Your comments are correct. But governments want digital monetary transactions so they can easily trace the movement of money…there are current efforts afoot to do just that…eliminate paper currency. It’s all fiat anyway.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  102. @Realist

    The CBDC’s are all for control. They want to turn off people’s ability to protest gov’t policy by turning off their ability to survive by limiting or completely restricting people’s access to their own funds. No longer a need for a duplicitous MSM. There’s also no longer a need for the existing banks, and I suspect all banks will get nationalized to use their existing buildings and computer networks to implement the CBDC’s. The recent closer relationship between the Fed and the Treasury signaled that the gov’t is willing to throw the banks under the bus at the opportune moment.

    The joke, however, will be on them, as the CBDC’s will keep being inflated as the common currencies are now, resulting in run away inflation shortly after their introduction. The control only lasts for however long they can pay their mercenary scum in the police and military to use force or the threat of force against their neighbors. It is the inflation to hyperinflation eventually that dooms all ‘currencies’ regardless of the medium because currencies aren’t ‘money’.

    At some future point, money will once again replace currencies and my hope is that at that point, gov’t will have nothing to do with true money. Of course, my hope won’t be realized as the bulk of the population is too stupid to demand it.

    • Agree: Realist
  103. @songbird

    +5-10 IQ points seems pretty doable.

    Not really. This is doable only by selecting a smarter woman w/o any genetic engineering. Not to mention that IQ is one thing, intelligence is another, not to mention creativity, which is distinct from both.

    Second question would be, how can you be sure that they are not selecting your embryos for their own favored traits and not for yours?

    This will become a concern when trait selection becomes real. For now it’s sales pitch of snake oil paddlers. Then again, there is a sucker born every minute.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
  104. @Abelard Lindsey

    “as well as their own semiconductor OEM’s (deposition, etching, and litho equipment) to compete with the likes of AMAT, LamNovellus, and possibly ASML. The latter will be very difficult as EUV process is extremely complex and ASML is the only company to have perfected it”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asml-china-spying-idUSKCN1RN0DK

    The FD story was based in part on ASML sources and in part on documents from the Santa Clara, California Superior Court that showed six former ASML employees, all with Chinese names, breached their employment contract by sharing information on ASML software processes with a company called XTAL Inc.

    The FD reported that XTAL, which makes electrical design automation for semiconductor systems, is a subsidiary of a China-based company called Dongfang Jingyuan, which it said in turn has ties to the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

    In its reaction, ASML said XTAL’s funding came from “South Korea and China”. It said the aim of the theft was to create a competing product and sell it to an existing ASML customer in South Korea.

    The company confirmed the FD’s report that the court had awarded ASML \$223 million in damages.

    “It is unclear to what extent these damages can be collected from the now bankrupt company XTAL,” ASML said.

    They had memory sticks full of data and software.

    “The suggestion that we were somehow victim of a national conspiracy is wrong,” CEO Peter Wennink said in a statement.

    “We resent any suggestion that this event should have any implication for ASML conducting business in China. Some of the individuals (involved) happened to be Chinese nationals,” he added.

    LOL

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  105. @RoatanBill

    If a global Weimar scenario come to pass (possible), the only alternatives will be barter, commodity money, and (yes) cryptos.

    So no cryptos in your sound money world?

    Another commenter getting on the global libertarianism bandwagon. I really need to recuperate from my bout of neurotic anti-collective-at-all-costs ideology.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  106. @Yellowface Anon

    Yes, no crypto. Blockchain should be exploited for its benefits, but being money isn’t one of them.

    I’m an anarchist. Libertarians are too soft for my taste.

    Why don’t you explain how Bitcoin’s current value reflects its cost of production. If you can’t do that then Bitcoin is just another mania.

    Using electricity to spin a motor to produce a product or to run a server has identifiable benefits. Using it to solve a puzzle question that has no reason for being asked in the first place is just a waste of resources.

    The clear message China just sent to the crypto space should indicate what the rest of the world’s gov’t are going to do eventually. The supreme criminals in the society, the gov’t of the world, aren’t into entertaining competition.

  107. tamo says:

    @Anatoly. According to Wikipedia, Italy’s per capita income at about \$35.000 is the lowest among the G 7.
    On the the hand, Japan’s per capita income is about \$43,000 roughly at the same level as Britain, France.

    You should remember that according to the Big Mac Index by The Economist, both the U.S. dollar and European currencies such as the Euro, Swiss Franc are more than 30% OVERVALUED against such East Asian currencies as Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen, South Korean Won, Taiwan dollar.

    Also according to an article in Nikkei Asia on 10 Aug. 2021, China overtook America in AI research and China has been ahead of America in AI application for many years.

    So as of now. I think China and America are neck and neck in AI

    But I think China is ahead of America in quantum technology (both communications and computing) and 5G.

  108. @AnonfromTN

    This is doable only by selecting a smarter woman

    Clarification: even in this case you increase the probability, but there is no guarantee. Still better than genetically engineered “designer babies”: there, the blind lead the blind. The result was correctly predicted more than 2,000 years ago.

  109. For thousands of years China has had a cluture of bureaucratic control/ That isn’t going to disappear in a few decades. Dengism has had its day. Reversion to the Confucian mean (study of the safer classics now including the works of Mao) is due and Xi is the man to do it.

    I know very little about China. Tear me apart.

  110. @RoatanBill

    Does it cost near \$50,000 to “mine” a Bitcoin? If the answer is no, then the hype over bitcoin is just another tulip bubble. The use of the mining analogy is, in itself, a major indicator that the whole thing is a con.

    Is there some kind of secret farm that specializes in growing subnormal morons like you? This thread has brought out quite the bumper crop of buffoons, dullards, and just plain imbeciles.

    Proof that the world urgently needs gene-edited babies.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  111. @Anatoly Karlin

    UK firms do the publishing. The English as 2nd language countries thus should be bumped up a place or so.

  112. @Thorfinnsson

    When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers.
    Socrates

    You can’t accept my challenge because you have no reasonable answer. So, all you can do, as a mental midget, is to lash out to your betters.

    Thank you for initiating name calling as it shows the readers here what kind of character you have and are.

    • Agree: Levtraro
    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  113. BlackFlag says:

    Maybe one of the future developments in ongoing dematerialization will be people forgoing to have children. A couple can perform PGT-P to get the embryo’s genome and then run their birth and life through a sim. Why even bother doing the real thing when you can simulate their entire life at much lower cost?

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  114. Passer by says:
    @Abelard Lindsey

    I’ve had this dicussion about China with my financial advisor. Both my wife (who is Japanese) and him have brought this issue to my attention. It is our consensus that China is entering a Japan-like stagnation that will last indefinitely. But China will not crash, just like Japan will not crash. However, China as a growth story for investment opportunities is OVER.

    Who are his sources? I would fire him if that was me. I would not need him in the first place, anyway. Of the countless of estimates i have seen (many western estimates as well), almost all point to chinese growth being higher than the US up to 2050. There is lots of catch up effect untapped in China. Btw when talking about east asian stagnation, it should not be forgotten that both Taiwan and SK have pretty good rates with worse demographics and far bigger per capita GDP than China. There was no implosion of growth there unlike in Japan.

    The average forecast for Chinese gdp growth is approximately:
    2020 – 2030 5,1 %
    2030 – 2040 3 %
    2040 – 2050 2.2 %
    2050 – 2060 1.4 %

    So what is he smoking? China’s median age reaches Japan’s by 2050. It already has the best 5G coverage on the planet and it started developing 6G.

    Personally speaking, he is massively wrong because only 60 % of China’s population is urbanised and have internet, which means that China has a room to grow up to 2035 at least, via urbanisation and plugging more people into the internet. No property or labour force crisis is possible under such conditions either, as China can (and will) move many more millions from rural areas into the cities.

    However, China as a growth story for investment opportunities is OVER.

    The majority of US and European companies in China do not think so. China has a huge room to grow because its markets and currency are severely underused compared to GDP. Plus China will never be Japan because it has an economy of scale, that is – everything produced there will be cheaper all other things equal, plus it will have the resources to make huge technological investments and undertakings almost no one else can. An example – when you have 1.4 billion people it helps big data, phone and IT industries immensely (and almost any industry actually), because so many people need to be serviced, which means that you need to create huge unparalleled IT infrastructure, clouds, supercomputers, data processing capabilities, AI, etc. That’s one of the reasons even US sanctions could not dent Huawei – it can always have a huge market.

    You need in-depth analysis from real experts, not childish stuff like this. That would be expensive, or it will take some of your time to do it yourself.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
  115. I need to clarify that I was very influenced by libertarian writings but I’m not a committed libertarian now.

    I still use Austrian economics as analytical tools that is closer to economic realities of a productive economy than Keynesianism, but ultimately both of them aren’t the sole economic truth, since there is always an element of faith in economics and much of economic “laws” are transient as people’s habits and mindsets change, not to mention the whole social arrangements. The remark about fiat & fractional reserve being frauds is meant to represent what the Austrian economists see these institutions – given sufficient distrust every institution is illegitimate, and every institution, no matter how noble or effective they are at first, will decay and fail over time. (Fractional reserve might be if you take the original promise of full deposit redemption in mind – Austrian credit creation require the lending of time deposits, and demand deposits is a service and not an financial instrument).

    However, given the globalization of the anti-authority mindset, fanned by the implementation of the Great Reset agenda, you can see many aspects of libertarian economics (agorism, self-sufficiency, barter & commodity money) being embraced by increasingly enthusiastic masses and possibly as strategies of survival. And remember, all man-made disasters of the 20th century were due to the failure to implement a centralized “utopian” vision, and the Great Reset probably won’t be excluded from such a list. After that, given how centralization is discredited as an organizational principle, decentralization and the abnegation of public trust will be built into the new institutions.

    The NAP goes against human nature as Communism does since it assumes a perfect state (elimination of aggression vs elimination of want) which is unbiological. We can strive to be pacific but aggression will always happen, including statism. It assumes a world of atomized actors bouncing onto boundaries of their lifestyles and interactions, like air particles. There is basically no place in the world, except many parts of 19th century America, where this is the default political structure. It was only possible as an American ethos of individualism, independence and anti-collectivism, some sort of HBD trait and not easily copied onto anywhere else with vastly different ethos. Such a society has no cohesion as everyone chart their own paths and guard their own farmsteads, and so would not exist organically outside of a landscape of yeoman farmers. This isn’t to belittle the value of leaving everyone to their own best paths of development – just not to transpose the personal to the civil and public. I am not an anarchist but one hoping for appropriate forms of “government” for every societal form, including anarchism for the libertarians. You shouldn’t impose one solution over everyone like liberalism did in 19th century and the WEF is doing with the Great Reset.

    What I indeed believe is our position being on the cusp of civilization shifts as consequential as the Mongol Invasions/Black Death, the starting point of the Age of Discovery, and the starting point of capitalism. Particularly, capitalism is being made obsolete by the many factions of elites and populists, and we will have a chaotic transition from rational industrial growth to organic development, that will appear to be regressive and catastrophic to the proponents of progressivist history.

    So, what does it mean for a China that is doubling on building their own Great Reset structures apart from main clique controlled from Davos?

  116. Unlike the Sheeple here, I actually know that China is not real

  117. @Hbd investor

    They can also pump out propaganda and incentives to make more children

    As of yet that has not resulted in more children being born, this after the 2015 move to a “two child policy.” As of the middle of this year a three child policy, and I note the implication the government is still fully involved in counting those children.

    On the other hand 2020 being really bad for births has got to be a special case, and this might remain true until COVID is “solved” in one way or another for the PRC. Might give the CCP enough time to recover from serially trashing various components of the country’s economy, which might be wise in the long run, but making people more poor does not encourage them to have more children in modern economies. Although how many are still “on the farm?” (small family ones).

    In the context of financial repression what’s happening in the housing market both from government policy and bubble(s) being burst looks very worrisome to me. No to a very limited government safety net and strictly limiting what the people can invest in, and then allowing that to first go out of control and then trying to bring sanity to it is a very hard thing, maybe search on “soft landings” for the historical record? And now how much wealth has been stranded, perhaps effectively destroyed if you can’t sell them, in cryptocurrencies?

  118. Dmitry says:

    Japan is now the poorest G7 country after

    Japan, France and UK all have the effectively same income level as each other. (At this level, it is just small changes in the exchange rate).

    Canada, Germany are slightly higher (but probably not in any significant way), and USA significantly higher.

    Meanwhile Italy, lower.

    Japan is just at the median income of the G7 countries. Even Germany’s and Canada’s difference is small enough that it can probably be more exchange rate or margin of error. It’s only USA’s income level which is very clearly performing above the other G7 countries.

  119. mal says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    The benefit is similar to the internet itself–disintermediation.

    Yeah, but internet is dominated by a few large government integrated corporate conglomerates and people love this, and can’t get enough of.

    Just as with the internet, this is also unlikely to lead to the flourishing freedom that libertarians predict. If crypto is the real deal, then powerful forces will likely gain control over it.

    Like I mentioned elsewhere, is Walmart Dollar a possibility? Maybe. I agree with underlying tech and doing away with commercial banks, they outlived their usefulness, but crypto is going to get centralized, if not by the government directly (through Central Bank), then by government linked corporate conglomerate. So if not US Digital Dollar, then it will be Facebook Libra or Walmart Dollar or whatever. My bet is still on Central Bank regulated digital currency though.

  120. @Thorfinnsson

    Both Germany and Japan’s most important export market is China, but the former doesn’t have security concerns from China so is not in as much of a bind.

    All else equal German autos are considered sexier than Japanese. If anyone who helps sell this its Hollywood–

    View post on imgur.com


    Hardy Krüger as Generalmajor der Waffen SS Karl Ludwig, A Bridge Too Far

    But what’s going to be Germany’s answer for EV? As current, all the leading EV battery makers are East Asian.
    https://www.carsguide.com.au/ev/advice/who-builds-batteries-for-electric-cars-ev-battery-manufacturers-explained-83190

    • Replies: @Not Raul
  121. Dmitry says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    fashionable to deprecate manufacturing as a dirty

    For people who live in cities where industrial manufacturing is dominant, then it is indeed often dirty, unpleasant and very bad for your standard of living. Historically one of the reasons American people tried to escape cities to the suburbs.

    Although of course better to be near some semiconductor factory using solar energy – than to be near something like copper smelting.

    Deindustrialization has benefits for the average citizens. When polluting industry was moved out of a city (even out of country to the third world – China, Vietnam, India), then the cities often become flooded inflow of people, and almost a renaissance in former industrial areas as in examples like London, Bilbao, Milan, etc. (Of course positive examples of cities that could deindustrialize without falling in mass unemployments)

    • Replies: @mal
  122. @Vivek.

    That would likely happen by imposing airtight sanctions against China and completely closing off the sea-lanes to starve the country into submission. I actually could see China being able to survive such a blockade, but only if it is has access to Russian resources.

    Have you forgotten that the PRC has a serious nuclear weapons arsenal, and has decided to significantly beef it up? The above scenario with a CCP that doesn’t really care about the people, just their own power and here personal survival, would have them in an excellent position to threaten and then if necessary use nuclear weapons to break the will of the blockading countries.

    They’ve long been explicitly threatening to use them, mostly recently after the AUKUS nuclear sub etc. deal, but in the most infamous post-Cold War example “During the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 to 1996, Chinese Lieutenant General Xiong Guangkai told the US assistant secretary of defense that ‘Americans care more about Los Angeles than they do about Taiwan.’”

    The only think we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history, but I recall the last time the world/US tried to starve a northeastern Asian nation into submission there was eventually a spot of trouble that was ended by nuclear hellfire.

  123. @Ron Unz

    Our propaganda organs have persuaded or at least coerced many Americans into accepting the most totally ridiculous beliefs on issues of race, gender, and various other Woke matters, and have similarly spread these ideological doctrines to many of our vassal-states, dominated by our electronic and social media. However, these beliefs are mostly crazy, and their widespread apparent dominance should make us very cautious in accepting other beliefs.

    Take the AI issue, about which I know almost nothing. From what I’ve read, TikTok gained enormous ground against Facebook, Google’s Youtube, and other American social media giants because its AI was so vastly superior in serving up enticing videos. Doesn’t this indicate that Chinese AI and software is not necessarily as far behind as you suggest?

    Here I think you’re making the same mistake about two things. What is the objective of Wokeness? I like Spandrel’s explanation of Bioleninism, there’s significant things to be gained by creating such cadres of broken people who’s only importance is what they can do for our ruling trash. And is YouTube etc. bad at serving up enticing materials because they’re just plain bad at it (you can make the case it’s “CEO” who has more power than Google’s CEO is generally incompetent, and YouTube can’t get Google’s best talent), but what it that sort of success when compared to the totalitarian tech Left’s (TTL) ability to control “the national conversation?”

    To reify this, why have I never created a Twitter account, have stopped using Facebook except for local emergency stuff (a primary means my local units of government use to communicate), and 95% of the time only go to YouTube for specific videos someone has linked to? Why did you create Unz.com, and why do I spend so much time here instead of on TTL platforms?

    Just how good is the TTL’s AI? I suspect we’ll find out for real after they start generating lists of future war criminals as the KGB did for Western Europe in case of a successful Warsaw Pact invasion of it.

    • Replies: @Blade
  124. Passer by says:
    @Philip Owen

    Reversion to the Confucian mean (study of the safer classics now including the works of Mao) is due and Xi is the man to do it.

    I know very little about China. Tear me apart.

    There you go. Reversion to the mean means becoming the biggest economy on the planet for a long time. The mean of China for the last 2000 years was the biggest or second biggest (after India) economy on the planet, with Asia being the center of the global economy.

    Here is how the reversion to the mean looks like. Not very nice to western countries.

    There is a reason why desperate europeans were trying to reach Asia for such a long time. Now though, there are nukes, and globalisation favors non-western countries due to variety of reasons (technology/knowledge proliferation, labor arbitrage, etc).

    study of the safer classics now including the works of Mao

    It also includes opening up to the world, unlike what Mao taught. They know that isolation is not the answer, hence “opening up” is a constant party phrase. Thus the chinese bids for free trade agreements with almost everyone, the latest – with the US conceived (and later rejected by the US in favor of isolationism) TPP. It looks like the US is closing its economy to the world instead? : )

  125. @Anatoly Karlin

    Globally brand and cachet is largely determined by white women. The top luxury names are almost entirely French, Italian and American. The only Japanese name that makes the top 20 is Shiseido.
    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ar/Documents/Consumer_and_Industrial_Products/Global-Powers-of-Luxury-Goods-abril-2019.pdf

    It’s well known in Western dating market that oriental guys* have the lowest sexual market value. Med and Latin guys the biggest slayers.

    *Exceptions allowed like perhaps Daniel Chieh

    Maybe it will stay this way, but who knows?

    View post on imgur.com


    Huang Xiaoming as IJA Intelligence Chief Takeda, The Messenger

  126. Totally freaking agree, Tolya. A thought I had after the Crypto ban was: “wow, Deux Ex ended up getting China wrong”.

    I spent time in China during the Hu years, and man, it was a free wheeling place. I didn’t see the shakedowns and whatever hassling by authorities Chinese presumably had to deal with, but the place had a chaotic and industrious feel to it, commercial activity everywhere. Reminded me of my imagination of the USA in the 1890s, a society juiced up by the infusion of technology, money and high energy people.

    A lot of us had this idea that China would be a Moldbugian empire, a giant Hong Kong. Authoritarian, but also freemarket and corrupt in a functional way. There’s this exchange in Deus Ex where a guy in a bar is basically defending China as authoritarian, but also a place where you can make your fortune, it doesn’t look like that dream, which seemed likely in 2000, is going to happen.

    You need crazy, risky taking geniuses to reach the heights of technology and have a dynamic economy. Given the Chinese personality, they need to go out of their way to encourage their young men to be a little wild, not to “work hard, study differential equation”. As you’ve noted before, despite their vast stock of high IQ engineers, they still can’t pull off a decent jet engine. I’d wager that tiny Sweden has a better shot, and better record, of producing world-changing technical innovations. Sad!

    The Celestials also shoot themselves in the foot on geopolitics, they are bad at grand strategy. See Luttwak’s statements on this topic in recent years. Even if the USA continues rapidly losing capacity as a superpower, it’s easy to imagine a Russia-Europe-Japan balancing coalition arising, to check Chinese ambition. They’ve fallen into a very Chinese trap.

  127. Levtraro says:
    @RoatanBill

    I think I know what you are saying (govts seizing on every opportunity to increase their ability to see and control everything), but I tend to think that if there are insidious motives behind CBDC, rather than big countries controlling the economy of small countries by the sheer power of their own CBDC over theirs, the main or at least proximate insidious goal of the govt would be to replace banks and third-party payment systems in their internal economy. China is already saying that the DY will be, among other things, a vehicle to give banking services to people outside the banking system (think of street vendors; China has the largest number of people without bank account). One bit of info connected to this is that payments in DY can be done without an internet connection (AliPay, WeChat require a connection). But, contrary to the suspicion that the PBC wants to make banks and third-payment systems obsolete, in the development of the DY, banks and third-party payment systems are on-board. The PBC have an R&D team formed by commercial banks, telecoms, and third-party payment companies. So perhaps they are in fact doing it for efficiency gains and to increase internal consumption, which they say is the proximate motivation. I imagine this is the proximate goal (efficiency gains and increased internal consumption) but many developments have clear proximate goals then along the way you realize other ultimate goals that eventually become more prominent, or maybe you plan ahead for the time when ultimate goals become achievable. I am focusing on the payment aspect of CBDC, which is the easiest to roll out, but there are financial aspects that are also very important and more complicated.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  128. @YetAnotherAnon

    You laugh correctly at the ASML CEO’s make nice comment towards the PRC, but EUV technology as they’ve developed it is completely insane. It starts with emitting a droplet of molten tin, which is then zapped with a laser from a company in California ASML eventually bought. As the electrons drop back to their normal orbits they emit very short wavelength photons/light, just shy of what’s officially “soft X-rays.” This is bounced through around seven ultra precise mirrors each adsorbing some of the light before impacting a very special sort of mask to then illuminate the parts you want on one die on a wafer.

    Did I mention a lot of this happens, has to happen in a vacuum? For the sake of intellectual curiosity I really want to know how they keep that tin from getting in to everything and wrecking the machine….

    No, nobody in the world is going to be able to duplicate this any time soon, although there have been proposals to use other technology like synchrotrons to produce light of this sort. But it doesn’t matter that much for PRC national security uses, there’s a tremendous amount of stuff you can still do at what Intel calls 14 nm (their having, at least in part due to diversity, failed to move any further down except, maybe, one step very recently). So the PRC is not going to be fabricating CPU for Apple phones, but they’ll do OK for the foreseeable future.

    If you want to learn a lot more about this, I generally recommend https://SemiWiki.com/

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  129. @RoatanBill

    Anyone who complains about being insulted does not understand the purpose of the internet and isn’t fit to participate. Perhaps you would have a better time enjoying social media from your mobile phone rather than running with the big dogs on the Unz Review.

    I attacked you because your comment demonstrated that you don’t have the foggiest idea of the economics of Bitcoin mining, yet chose to make this the lynchpin of your so-called argument. A few minutes of research would have informed you as to the cost, but I suppose that would’ve cut into your valuable time sharing photos of your recent road trip to Wall Drug in your treasured 1997 Plymouth Breeze.

    For the record the cost of mining Bitcoins is the capital cost of acquiring mining hardware (generally modern ASIC-based miners such as Bitmain Antminers), the current difficulty, the cost of electricity, and the pool cost (for small miners).

    Here’s a basic calculator: https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/calculator

    Latest Antminer: https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020210920124332765Ffe211v80644

    Current mining pools: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-mining/pools/

    Break-even at present difficulty with low-cost industrial electricity is about a year. Of course you can’t be sure since difficulty changes.

    I suspect Socrates might have troubled himself to learn about crypto mining before opining on it.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  130. @Passer by

    They’ll never ban crypto in the West, far too many important people are publicly long. Dorsey is hyper-long, Musk is long, Mastercard is long. Bitcoin gives climate alarmists a new front for grandstanding: “green mining”. Who could be against green mining? Only a racist. There’s also the Western love of anything ‘technological’, it would be uncool to ban crypto. Don’t forget the insider trading angle. If governments keep Bitcoin alive, they can endlessly insider trade off threatening regulation, or adjusting laws. If you ban it, you halt that gravy train.

    It’s no threat to the state anyway. National currencies will remain the unit of account, and that’s what really matters for monetary policy. Every internet connected device is backdoored, not like you can do truly anonymous transactions, even on Lightening. If crypto starts mediating transactions in a big way, the monetary base can simply be retracted in a proportionate way, with little or no effect on exchange rates among government currencies. Bitcoin is a global cowrie shell, a global store of value that has complementary properties vis-a-vis cash and conventional securities. Throwing Bitcoin into the mix is like adding another course to an otherwise slightly lacking banquet, it’s not replacing anything, just makes things better.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  131. Passer by says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Call me up when uncontrolled cryptocurrency becomes 60 % of world’s currency reserves, as the US dollar. Hint: it is never going to happen.

    Wanna bet?

    And no, i’m not talking here about digital US dollar or CNY. I’m talking about uncontrolled crypto.

    The combined value of bitcoin was equivalent to just 1.7% of the world’s money in 2021.

    The minute it becomes a threat to Central Banks it will be banned. Maybe at 10 %

  132. @Levtraro

    China’s goals and the US’s goals may be entirely different. In the US’s case and the west’s case in general, I suspect it is to enslave the population with a system of faux “money” that they can’t escape from. I’ve tried to envision some mechanism to avoid a US CBDC and still live within the US or its area of influence and came up with no way. The US’s system will provide the enforcement blueprint for Europe, all the English speaking countries and anyone that wants to trade with the US.

    I’m not concerned with China since I don’t live there and don’t see any way of interacting with China or its people from where I am in the Caribbean. I do see, and am concerned about, the interactions with the US as the Caribbean is largely a US lake in terms of economic activity.

    the main or at least proximate insidious goal of the govt would be to replace banks and third-party payment systems in their internal economy

    Exactly! They want absolute control over the population by having them by the short hairs of their access to their own funds (I won’t call it money, since it’s currency which is just gov’t script backed by nothing but brute force).

    It’s my contention that the US regime knows it can’t compete with China in the long run, so they intend to focus inward against the best interests of its population and anyone else in the periphery that is subject to US influence. The decades of currency spent on bullshit weapons systems is, I think, the reason that a war with China won’t happen. The US has junk that can’t perform so there’s no reason to even try to use it.

    I think the thieves in the MIC have looted the country to such an extent that their weapons system aren’t up to the task and therefore any looting has to occur inside from now on. The exit from Afghanistan is just a realization that there’s nothing more the military has to gain from remaining there. The new focus is against the Constitution spouting, anti vax, white supremacists, etc that the bulk of the morons that vote will believe is necessary and proper. Totalitarianism is the US’s future and it’s already been instantiated in a milder version since 9/11. Now, the gloves come off with an in your face dictatorship that will beat and kill people that get in their way. See Australia for the model as to how to treat the citizenry and get no serious reaction. Australia is the test case for what will occur next in the US and then some.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  133. @That Would Be Telling

    I would also like to add the mindblowing optics system developed by Carl Zeiss for this ASML product..

    Basically glass lenses wouldn’t work because the glass itself would absorb the EUV rays so they came up with the mirror based focusing mechanism to etch patterns on wafers..

    Seriously borderline sci fi stuff..

  134. @Philip Owen

    Reversion to the Confucian mean (study of the safer classics now including the works of Mao) is due and Xi is the man to do it.

    I know very little about China. Tear me apart.

    Since you asked so politely: New, Improved Chairman Xi is having serious students of Chairman Mao disappeared. What’s now safe to read are Xi’s book(s) and I don’t know what else in that domain.

    Although otherwise I might make a wild guess you’re thinking in the right direction, I too am woefully ignorant of so many things about China like Confucianism. But right now my impression is that Chairman Xi is trying to return the PRC to Marxism of a sort, and that never ends well, especially economically.

    BTW, our host has got the attention of ZeroHedge with this latest posting. Worth looking at for just the scale models of a Ming Dynasty Great Treasure Fleet ship and Columbus’ Santa Maria, the latter is tiny by comparison. I mean, the former ship’s maximum width is almost more than the Santa Maria’s length.

  135. mal says:
    @Dmitry

    Deindustrialization has benefits for the average citizens.

    True, but that only works up until you realize that foreign countries shut down their production due to, say, a pandemic, and there is nothing you can do about it. Deindustrialization has benefits for the average citizens only as long as somebody else stays industrialized and makes products for them.

    There are two parts to modern supply chains – one is globalization, and another is “just in time” inventory management where your product is made once ordered with minimal warehousing.

    The inventory management is not going away as it has too many benefits, but supply chain we probably want regionalized, if we learned anything at all. Factories are heavily automated anyway, so cost of labor is not the driving factor anymore.

    Even post pandemic, with trade tensions rising, you don’t want your critical components sourced from vulnerable Asia.

    • Agree: AnonfromTN
  136. Passer by says:
    @Boswald Bollocksworth

    every internet connected device is backdoored, not like you can do truly anonymous transactions, even on Lightening.

    The problem is more of it as a store of value, causing inflation in CB currencies. Just as gold, it will never be allowed to become anything major as % of world’s money. See what happened to gold in the US in certain circumstances. The big money must stay in \$, Euro, CNY..so that the printers can go on.

  137. @Thorfinnsson

    I’m not a miner, and your first reference clearly states it’s developed by miners for miners, so that reference is useless to answer my simple question which you studiously avoid.

    A reference I found a few months ago is : https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-does-it-cost-to-mine-a-bitcoin-update-may-2021/ . I only asked you to get your perspective on it, not knowing you were a foul mouth POS.

    Therefore, the going price offers an exorbitant profit to miners. The same can’t be said for real miners that move dirt to get at gold, silver and other real commodities.

    As far as you being among the big dogs, you’d be correct if it was big dog shit.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  138. @tamo

    “Japan’s per capita income is about \$43,000 roughly at the same level as Britain”

    I would much rather be a Japanese person in Japan than a Native Brit in the UK.

    There are no “bad areas” in Japan. No “grooming gangs”, no “County lines” drug gangs. Crime is relatively low. There are not homeless people and beggars in every town. Trains are fantastic, futuristic, medical care superb.

    • Agree: tamo, Escher
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  139. Blade says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    why do I spend so much time here instead of on TTL platforms?

    Because you have no friends?

  140. @Passer by

    You need in-depth analysis from real experts, not childish stuff like this. That would be expensive, or it will take some of your time to do it yourself.

    I think that’s bad advice. The value of financial “advisors”, “experts”, and their ilk is as close to zero as makes no difference. They don’t know the future, just like us. If they knew it, they wouldn’t need to work.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  141. xxxeliss says:

    the biggest threat China has is demographics, with a tfr of 1.3 children per women and almost 14% of the population over 65 , China is on the verge of population decline

  142. Passer by says:
    @AnonfromTN

    Tell that to any significant corporation. All have China specialists, this is how business works.

    There are those who are good and those who are bad, just like with any place. Those who are better at estimating the future make money. Those who are not do not.

    • Replies: @Adept
    , @AnonfromTN
  143. mal says:

    China Isn’t Going to Make It

    How’s Chinese obesity epidemic going?

    To catch up with US, Chinese will need to overinflate their healthcare, finance, and government sectors. I know their government and finance are pretty strong, but Chinese may be too healthy to catch up to the US.

    But if they get obese fast, they too can spend \$10-\$20 trillion on healthcare expenditures which will bring their economy in line with US.

    • LOL: Yellowface Anon
  144. Passer by says:

    Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou was released by Canada, returned to China

    China’s national power ensures Meng’s different outcome from Alstom executive: Global Times editorial

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235051.shtml

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235066.shtml

    We believe many Chinese people have once again thought of the experience of France’s Alstom. Due to the company’s competition with its American counterparts, Alstom’s executive Frédéric Pierucci was sentenced in the US on foreign bribery charges for five years in prison. Alstom paid a huge fine and was forced to sell its core business to the US’ General Motors. In comparison, Meng and Huawei are much luckier.

    The high-profile case of Meng, which has become a political dilemma significantly affecting the global geopolitical landscape, has been settled through both legal channels and political wrestling, experts said, noting that China, the US and Canada have seen the best scenario with much compromise made by the Biden administration in resolving the matter. It also helped pave the way for the positive interaction between the world’s largest economies in the near future amid strained China-US relations.

    It was also one mistake of the US administration that has been corrected in line with the request of China, as China put forward two lists to the US during the bilateral talks in Tianjin in July, including the List of US Wrongdoings that Must Stop which urged the US to release Meng, showing that Beijing’s US policies began taking effect and remaining mistakes of the US have to be corrected.

  145. @songbird

    Plus – aside from Germany – the average Japanese probably has an average standard of living higher than the others. It certainly has longer life expectancy.

    • Replies: @songbird
  146. @That Would Be Telling

    The cessation of the Treasure voyage were partly to prevent the emergence of oligarchs that would challenge the power of meritocratic scholar-officials, who were traditionally contemptuous of merchants.

    The other part was due to ethical considerations. The voyages would have surely encountered Arab and Turkish slave traders and declined to participate. The Ming had they wanted to behave like Europeans easily could have had firepower to overrun the African tribes (not even advanced enough to build Kingdoms) but opted to not to.

    The treasure fleets rotted away in their harbors and a few centuries later Europeans overspread the world.

    How’s that going for Europeans huh? Even the Norwegians who never participated in colonization are subjected to immivasion and Negro Worship.

  147. @Mersaux

    Correct. 1/3 of the top AI talent in the US are Chinese.

  148. @That Would Be Telling

    After the Plaza Accords it seems Japan almost completely lost it’s innovative edge to South Korea…

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    , @Dmitry
  149. Antiwar7 says:
    @Ron Unz

    But couldn’t it be a store of value against inflation-prone government currencies? Or as a store of value against the US dollar losing its reserve status?

  150. @showmethereal

    I think the inflexion point was sometime in the late 2000s.

    If we consider display technologies the Japanese dominated till the late 2000s.

    In Plasma TVs Pioneer Elite TVs were the gold standard.

    In LCD Sharp Aquous reigned Supreme.

    And Sony released the world’s first consumer OLED TV.

    Japanese phones pre iPhone were light years ahead of the rest of the world.

    Now nothing.Sony smartphones have less than 1% market share.

    All OLED TV panels are sourced from LG.

    Most LCD TVs are sourced from Chinese firms like BOE..

    I am still looking for a convincing explanation of what exactly happened.

  151. Adept says:
    @Passer by

    “China specialists” don’t usually speculate about the market.

    What they usually do is more simple, and more interesting.

    See, back in the day, about 15 years ago, the Chinese economy was really opening up, but they were starting from a pretty clean slate. Regulations were effectively nil, there was no annoying civil legal system to bother with, there was a lot of small-scale competition on the ground, and sourcing websites like AliBaba were unmoderated. Anything the Chinese could make, you could quite easily find. It was trivial, back in those days, to arrange for tremendous bulk quantities of illegal steroids or black market pharmaceuticals on AliBaba.

    Those days are long since past. The regulatory environment in China is much tighter, much more like America’s. (If still not nearly quite so bad.) Sourcing has become vastly more difficult, and sites like AliBaba are so closely monitored and moderated that they have effectively become gate-keepers. (Case in point: They no longer list pharmaceutical ingredients or APIs at all.) Industries have consolidated, so there’s less competition. Patent filing has become a Chinese national pastime.

    In Xi’s China, things have become much more difficult.

    “China specialists” — and I know, because I have had to employ a few at various times in the past — basically manage regulatory, IP, and logistical matters, which are all becoming increasingly complex. If you’re lucky and you have a good one, they’ll also be very plugged-in to the industry that you work in — on a first-name basis with a few dozen factory managers, etc.

    If you’re working alongside a really good China specialist, and you squint real hard, you might be able to pretend that you’re back in 2010.

    Even in the largest corporations, what China specialists don’t do is speculate about the market. Most of them are totally clueless about that stuff. At large firms, navigating IP and regulatory matters are usually the focus.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  152. songbird says:
    @showmethereal

    Could be partly a reflection of height differences. For ex: the longest lived Japanese are Okinawans (the shortest.) Forget which sex, but Okinawans take the world prize for only one sex. (That is most centenarians) The other sex is some island in the Med, but I forget which one.

  153. utu says:

    The not so secret meaning of Karlin post.

    Karlin to Putin (who reads his blog): My BitCoin investment is hurting. Do something with Xi. Stop him or something. What about some Po-oolong tea? And if you can’t do it at least appreciate my talent and readiness to write anything contrary to facts and logic just to advance my interest, that can be also yours – this talent and readiness can work for you, Mr. Putin.

    And meantime in Beijing Xi beefed up his security detail once Karlin’s devastating attack against China was reported on ZeroHedge and there are rumors about the purge of pro-cryptocurrency revisionists in CCP.

    • Agree: Passer by
    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  154. Passer by says:
    @Adept

    Agree. But China hands at companies also constantly release forecasts about the market, including equities, oil consumption, gas consumption, retail, not to mention GDP, inflation, etc.

    For example a popular theme these days is the big gap between the chinese share in world GDP and Chinese share in world market cap, which points to bullish case for Chinese equities.

    A very typical example.

    https://www.jhinvestments.com/viewpoints/international-equities/is-the-china-stock-sell-off-cause-for-concern

  155. @Passer by

    I am saying this based on personal experience. Myself and my wife have IRAs. Both used to be managed by the same “wealth managers”. Then I wanted to invest one in things they did not approve of, so I managed one (basically, bought some things and did not do anything else) and they kept managing the other. In a year my “managed” portfolio grew more than the one they managed. So much for their “expertise”.

    Mind you, I am not saying they don’t have some useful technical knowledge. E.g., they gave me (unofficially, as they are not certified for that) some very astute tax advice, and I am grateful for that. But as far as predicting the future goes, their guess is no better than mine.

    • Replies: @Passer by
  156. Passer by says:
    @AnonfromTN

    You got bad ones, there are good ones too. Just as in any place. Those who are better will get wealthy and move up the chain, will no longer be working with you, but will become company CIOs, etc. Those who are worse will remain working for clients down there.

  157. Not Raul says:
    @mike99588

    Dunno, might ask your friends over at Samsung and Sony…

    Samsung (Korean) has done a lot better than Sony (Japanese) over the last twenty years.

  158. Not Raul says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    But what’s going to be Germany’s answer for EV?

    VW is building its own battery factories.

    https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/15/22325813/vw-volkswagen-power-day-battery-electric-car-announcement

    One way Volkswagen plans to boost production of battery-powered vehicles is through a massive expansion of its manufacturing footprint. The automaker plans to have six battery cell production plants operating in Europe by 2030, which it will build alone or with partners.

  159. Dmitry says:
    @Vishnugupta

    It’s just cost saving typical of 21st century industry. It’s obviously more profitable for Sony, Philips, Panasonic and Samsung to buy LG panels, as they do not have a patent for this unlike e.g. Sony “Trinitron”.

    Regardless of everyone buying the same panels, Sony makes often the best OLED television depending on year and category.

    As for the company – it is ​doing its job, which is to generate profits for its owners (although chip shortage is a disaster for everyone this year).

    ​”Sony posts record Q1 profit on pandemic demand for devices: Operating profit for the quarter ended June 30th rose to 280.1 billion yen (€2.17 billion) from 221.7 billion yen a year earlier” https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/sony-posts-record-q1-profit-on-pandemic-demand-for-devices-1.4638712

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  160. @40 Lashes Less One

    What coins are in the arbitrum ecosystem?

  161. Hayek made the same observations, but this is from Tocqueville-

    “When Europeans landed in China three hundred years ago, they found there that almost all the arts had reached a certain degree of perfection and were surprised that they had not improved beyond that point. It was an industrial nation where most scientific processes had been preserved, while science itself was dead. That explained the unusually static quality of mind of this nation. The Chinese, in following the path of their ancestors, had mislaid the reasons for the direction the latter had chosen. They still used the formula without asking why; they kept the tool but they had lost the skills to adapt or replace it. The Chinese were, therefore, not able to change anything and had to abandon any notion of improvement. The well of human knowledge had dried up and although the flow still ran, it could neither increase its volume nor change its course.
    We should not, therefore, complacently think that the barbarians are still far away for, if some nations allow the torch to be snatched from their hands, others stamp it out themselves.”

    The difference here is that China has advanced this time on the intellectual capital of others, but you are predicting the same result.

    • Disagree: tamo
  162. Dmitry says:
    @showmethereal

    Korean companies rise in consumer products is not based especially on innovation, but just providing the same products (as e.g. Japanese companies) at slightly lower prices.

    Therefore Samsung or LG are almost always slightly cheaper (with also slightly less reliable building quality) for the same products as Sony or Panasonic.

    Kia or Hyundai, will be almost always slightly cheaper than Toyota, Honda, Mazda, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Nissan.

    And obviously a Samick or Young Chang piano, will be significantly cheaper than an equivalent model of Yamaha or Kawai piano.

    It’s characteristic of the contemporary consumers to be very price-sensitive. So that if you can provide the same products slightly cheaper, you will have the greatest market-share in the consumer market.

    Korea’s government has used a slightly undervalued currency to support this consumer sales strategy of pricing the products a little cheaper than Japanese equivalents (while Japan always had overvalued currency).

  163. Dmitry says:
    @Dmitry

    Sony, Philips, Panasonic and Samsung to buy LG panels, as they do not have a patent for this unlike e.g. Sony “Trinitron”

    And this because Kodak had developed the WRGB OLED technology that was easy to scale up for consumer production. Kodak expended 40 years of R&D on this OLED research, and then Kodak collapsed with financial problems around a decade ago.

    LG purchased the Kodak’s OLED division, that had the intellectual property and patents in 2009. So from this wise purchase, LG has Kodak’s WRGB patents.

    “December 6th, 2009 – Kodak announced today that they have sold all their OLED related assets to a group of LG companies. This is a sad day for Kodak I think – they have invented OLEDs in 1970 and have been working on the technology for 40 years now (!). It’ll be interesting to see what LG will do with Kodak’s IP (which is mostly about Fluorescent OLEDs and manufacturing equipment). In any case, LG is showing that they are truly committed to OLEDs.”
    https://www.oled-info.com/lg-buys-kodaks-oled-unit

    “The so-called WRGB (or WOLED-CF) architecture uses four white OLED subpixels with color filters on top (hence W+RBG). The WRGB technology (developed by Kodak and now owned by LG Display) is much easier to produce and scale-up.”
    https://www.oled-info.com/lg-oled

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  164. @Felix Keverich

    I pretty much can’t see any scenario where all the major nations don’t do something similar. It is not in the interests of sovereign governments to allow it to flourish. El Salvador is too small and weak to create it’s own digital currency. But that doesn’t mean everyone will adopt crypto.

  165. @RoatanBill

    Why don’t you be consistent and see what China is doing is also authoritarian. At least libertarians can critique China while you give up on that.

    You are not a real anarchist. If you were, you will be able to conceive a way back out of mandatory CBDCs, which is agorism using barter or commodity money, and arming yourselves against state enforcers.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  166. @YetAnotherAnon

    Do you know how rotten smaller towns in Japan are? That destitute zone in Osaka?

  167. @Felix Keverich

    The white birth rate in the US is the level of China. The US only grows population now because Latinos.
    And I notice you completely skipped the comparison made with Europe and the rest of East Asia. Almost all are below replacement. The lowest being Japan – South Korea – Singapore. Only Southeast Asia and Africa have high birth rates overall.

  168. @Yellowface Anon

    Alt-right tards haven’t got the faintest clue how ruinated, rotting, and vintage Japan is. In their incel fantasies of what Japan is like, everything is clean and new, everyone is happy, and there is any kind of financial opportunity to speak of. The real Japan is a moldy, damp, rotting cabin built on cinderblocks.

    The real reason that weeaboo fuck would prefer to live in Japan is because he has a sexual preference for Asian women. If Japan were a white country literally no white guys would be talking about how ideal it is or how they wish they had been born there. No white guy is trying to move to Luxembourg or talking about how ideal it is, which is basically what Japan is but with nonwhites. Japan’s selling point among the alt-right is “Asian women and ño white women/minorities”. All other facts get ignored.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
  169. @Vishnugupta

    Well I just mean the changes that took place – began with the Plaza Accords. The other issue was the aging which began around then (the population is now officially declining). It took decades for both to have their full effect.

  170. @Yellowface Anon

    As I mentioned, I’m not concerned with China. As an anarchist I have no use for any gov’t.

    Once they have a CBDC as well as the military, they can control everything until such time as the people wise up and stop cooperating, which, given their track record, will be never.

    With a CBDC, and total control over everything of value, you won’t be able to barter in any significant way because you won’t own anything and you’ll be happy. Remember? Not even gold and silver will save you since they’ll make the conversion to CBDC illegal. They can force a value of \$0 on anything they don’t like, including precious metals.

    The CBDC is the key to their control, for as long as that lasts. At some point, their greed will kill the CBDC too, when it is inflated to not purchase anything and then their control collapses. That could take decades.

    I’m way ahead of you. I left the US a long time ago.

  171. @RoatanBill

    The main point of using barter, commodity money and such in this scenario is to ignore the “value” assigned to them by CBDCs, and instead find a black market price for everything.

    And when CBDCs are debauched to be valueless like those Weimar Papiermarks, people will revert to a barter/commodity money/local currency economy with mainly local production and trade, probably in an agorist setting.

    Why do you still cling to the logic of what you intend to boycott? You are killing the messenger who talks mostly the same as you.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  172. @RoatanBill

    I agree that one of our biggest problems is all the stupid people.

    But most of them took the jab and are therefore on the way out.

    If it turns out that the only people left are globalists and hardcore resistors, I’m pretty sure money will come back into fashion.

  173. antibeast says:
    @Ron Unz

    Agree. In addition, cryptocurrencies based on decentralized, permissionless blockchains requiring PoW (‘Proof of Work’) or PoS (‘Proof of Stake’) algorithms are simply too computationally-intensive to be technically scalable. They are also not economically viable as digital currencies because those blockchain algorithms require computing power which now exceeds the power consumption of entire nations! Digital currencies require the computing ability to massively scale the number of transactions which cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum can not handle.

    China was right to crack down on cryptocurrencies which has attracted ‘get-rick-quick’ scammers of all kinds. Besides, China is in the process of launching its own ‘Digital Yuan’ based on centralized, permissioned blockchains which do not require computationally-intensive blockchain algorithms, thus making cryptocurrencies obsolete.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  174. @Ralph B. Seymour

    The COVID vaccines along with COVID itself might only reduce fertility but not making people firmly sterile. And whether that is true or significant, we need years to find out, and that effect can’t be isolated from more general ones similar to the fertility shock Russia underwent in the 90s.

  175. Blade says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    “Rotten” you speak of is a result of the aging population and youth leaving for urban areas. There are other, more appropriate words for it, such as decayed or crumbling. The worst areas of Tokyo or Osaka are still safer than many downtowns of the US or suburbs of Paris or sketchy areas of London. Perception of safety is also relative, Asians tend to be extremely cautious and safety-oriented. I guarantee you the worst parts of China or Japan are still much safer than the bad parts of Western countries, and sometimes as safe as good parts. Chances you will be randomly attacked on the street in a major city’s most central location while you are minding your own business is basically zero in those Asian countries. You didn’t refute the anon dude. If you want to see real destitute check American hoods on Youtube.

    • Thanks: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Johnplywood
  176. Blade says:
    @Ron Unz

    You know, it is rather strange how so many people cannot put two and two together and accept the reality. If you said “Chinese do better in mathematics” they’d be fine, but if you say “they are ahead/getting ahead in AI” suddenly they get mad, and try to prove you wrong.

    Then the other fact you mentioned. While I could consider giving them the benefit of the doubt, and say they are waging a propaganda war, the fact that they seem to swallow their own lies and act stupidly based on them makes me suspect that Western elites actually believe the stuff Western media repeats. Of course, then, ordinary people are misled even more. Even in this thread, we can see that, this idea that China will collapse because they are not making enough babies for example. It is often repeated among Western media/thought leaders. Meanwhile, just one look at the data and you see it is no different from (and sometimes better) than Western countries, including Japan or Korea. Then there is the fact that China already has more than enough people. Combine it with enough technology and a much lesser than current % of the working-age population is enough to keep China (or any other advanced country) going.

    And if I am wrong and TFR really needs to be above 2.0, I promise everyone that CCP could make TFR go above 2.0 the day they want it (or 3.0 for that matter). It is interesting that people have no problem believing they had 1 child policy for decades but they are struggling to believe the opposite could also be achieved. The West has no understanding of China. It is as simple as that.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Tdstype2
  177. @Blade

    Your chances of being randomly attacked in America are very low. Negligible if you don’t live in a black neighborhood (vast majority of whites and Asians do not).

    I’m just tickled by people who bring up this “hood” argument. Literally no white or Asian person ever woke up one day and decided they needed to move to the hood. The hood is a place you have to make effort to go to (physically as well as mentally). Predictably, 95% of white people never find themselves going there. You don’t live in the hood, and you’re never going to go there, so why does it matter?

    • Replies: @Blade
  178. Vivek. says:
    @songbird

    I think the elite in America want to stay in power and not risk all in order to turn the country into India’s golem. I mean, suppose they lost, would they want to live in India?

    You misunderstood the role Indians would play under the scenario I proposed, but first let’s tackle the idea that Jewish elites would not risk losing what they already have in order to potentially gain control over China. Frankly, I don’t think they have any choice. In their quest to utterly dominate and subdue the whites they have irreversibly weakened and ultimately doomed the West, thus sabotaging the very vehicle they use to exert their will on the world.

    The only way they can maintain their current preeminent position in world affairs is to leverage their control over the Western nations to establish a dominant position over China before the West is too far along its path of terminal decline and China too far along its path of ascendancy. It’s certainly a huge gamble, but the upside is essentially The World and the downside is merely accelerating what would eventually come to pass anyway if they never took the gamble in the first place. Lording it over a crumbling, strife torn third world cesspit that will be the West by the 2050s while you watch East Asia prosper outside your grasp is not something I venture these ambitious tribesmen will accept without giving it the ole college try.

    As to the notion that my scenario leads to China becoming India’s wholly owned property, that is not at all what I described. While India would certainly do its bit, it would be the West that would have to play the major part in forcing China to its knees, so certainly the Jews would play the preeminent role in ruling the country afterwards, especially a the very highest level. However, India’s cooperation would be indispensable so we would certainly have our seat at the table as well. More importantly, it would take millions of foreign personnel to effectively govern China after its defeat in order to completely bring it into the fold and ensure the desired agenda is implemented fully.

    This is exactly where India comes in, and that is why I drew the parallel between Indians’ role in a subjugated China to that of the Semu under the Yuan Dynasty. The Mongols were the unquestioned rulers and formed the highest caste under the Yuan, but they were so few that they had no choice but to import a whole host of occupation personnel from Central Asia, the Middle East, and even India because they knew they had to keep the native Han populace subdued and could not trust the ethnic Han to staff important positions. These were the “Semu” and they basically formed the bulk of the occupation forces as well as what was essentially “middle management” in the administrative machinery of China. They were given a favored, lordly status over the Chinese population and served as governors, tax collectors, merchants, etc. They took Chinese women as wives and concubines and over the centuries were genetically absorbed into the Chinese population.

    In my analogy the Mongols would obviously be Jewish elites and the Semu would be Indians, although Indians would undoubtedly participate in the highest levels of the occupation regime as well. As an Indian I believe such an arrangement would be completely fair and satisfactory, given that the West would be assuming by far the higher risk in the whole escapade so its elites would justly stake a claim to constitute the very highest caste in a conquered China.

    • Thanks: songbird
    • Replies: @Adept
    , @antibeast
  179. Adept says:
    @Vivek.

    You’ve spun an interesting fictional scenario, but one which has zero chance of coming about.

    Simply put, (a) you hugely over-estimate India’s state capacity, (b) you seem to believe that today’s USA is populated by the same exact people who lived there in 1950, with the same traits and capabilities, and (c) you assume that China is stupid, blind, and naïve.

    But India is a picture of dysfunction. Look no further than their military, which, though powerful on paper, is the laughingstock of the world. Their procurement and “indigenous development” programs are the stuff of legend — they’re actually worse than what you’d see in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. They’re not even capable of developing a rifle.

    The USA’s “leadership” — including its Jewish “elites” — aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. They are not their fathers, and they certainly are not their grandfathers. Instead they are psychologically warped, solipsistic, and intellectually stunted. A lot of ink has been spilled on this point, so I’ll leave it at that.

    China’s leadership is more intelligent and more capable than you realize, and the same goes for its people. The capability gap between China and India cannot be overstated, and the USA is rapidly losing its technological edge just as it has lost every other edge. Besides, American military planners have talked about blockading China for decades. Do you think that the Chinese are unaware of this, or unprepared for it? That they’re building that missile-laden Navy for nothing?

    So what you’re writing might make for decent fiction that might appeal to the types who read Tom Clancy supermarket novels, but as a serious forecast it is shit.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  180. @Dmitry

    Correct but my point is why didn’t Japan invent a rival to LG’s W-OLED tech.

    JOLED has been perennially starved for funds and is only now productionizing inkjet printed OLED technology starting with monitors this year.

    In phone displays too which use the RGB OLED which Japan pioneered they are no where in the league of Samsung Display.

    Why such slow development of next generation Micro LED technology.Again the first working micro LED(Legit Micro LED not Mini LED marketed as Micro LED)TV was developed by Sony but no road map to productionization has been unveiled.

    Why this industry wide rout?

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  181. Escher says:
    @Voltarde

    Straight outta Cupertino! Word!

  182. @Thorfinnsson

    Just as with the internet, this is also unlikely to lead to the flourishing freedom that libertarians predict. If crypto is the real deal, then powerful forces will likely gain control over it.

    I have no idea what you are talking about in that last paragraph and how that scenario would develop, and mal’s reply has not enlightened me in any degree. Alas, maybe I just lack the technical expertise to fully understand this subject.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  183. @utu

    🤷‍♂️

  184. @RoatanBill

    If Bitcoin mining offers such an exorbitant profit, then perhaps you should get a title loan on your beloved Plymouth Breeze in order to get a deposit on a secured credit card to purchase a miner. You won’t be able to buy an Antminer with your limited funds, but perhaps you can get a gently used 3dfx Voodoo to plug into your Pentium III Gateway running Windows ME.

    The reason for the higher return on capital in crypto-mining relative to actual mining is that the risk is much higher. The volatility of Bitcoin greatly exceeds that of physical commodities, routinely crashing. When prices crash mining economics invert, and many miners have to bail for the exits. And then there is the legal uncertainty, as highlighted by this thread.

  185. antibeast says:
    @Vivek.

    Your narrative is only partly correct in that while the Muslim ‘semus’ were indeed recruited as administrators of the Yuan Dynasty, the Uyghur and Tibetan Buddhists played a bigger role as Tibetan Buddhism became the official religion of the Yuan Dynasty, which marginalized the Muslim ‘semus’ from Central and West Asia. The idea that the ‘semus’ constituted some kind of a ‘ruling class’ is false as they were effectively treated as the ‘Other’ by the Mongol, Uyghur, Tibetan and Han Buddhists in the Yuan Dynasty.

    Western historiography tends to depict the Yuan Dynasty as an alien regime which is only true for the first two decades of Kublai Khan’s rule after recruiting the Muslim ‘semus’ from Central and West Asia to form the administrative class of the Yuan Dynasty which became part of the Mongol Empire. But the Muslim ‘semus’ became alien leftovers after the disintegration of Mongol Empire into the Yuan Dynasty and three other Muslim Khanates following the death of Kublai Khan. The Kaidu-Kublai War (1268-1301) was a war of succession fought by Kublai Khan and his successor Temür Khan against the Muslim Khanates led by Kaidu over who should rule the whole of the Mongol Empire.

    The role of the Muslim ‘semu’ as administrators of the Yuan Dynasty started under Kublai Khan in 1271 who reigned as the Khagan of the Mongol Empire from 1260 to 1294, after defeating the Song Dynasty in 1279. Note that the Muslim ‘semus’ came from Central and West Asia which had been under Mongol rule for decades prior to the conquest of the Song Dynasty. After Kublai Khan’s death in 1294, the Mongol Empire disintegrated into four different entities with the Tibetan Buddhist Yuan Dynasty only nominally affiliated to the other three Muslim Khanates. As the successors of Kublai Khan promoted Tibetan Buddhism in China, the role of the Muslim ‘semus’ declined while the role of the Uyghur and Tibetan Buddhists increased thereafter, as did the role of Han Confucianists when the Imperial State Examination system was revived. The practice of appointing the Dalai Lama by the Chinese Emperors started during this time in Beijing which became the newly established capital of the Yuan Dynasty.

  186. @Brás Cubas

    It’s a political predication rather than a technological prediction per se. It’s just how things tend to work.

    In 1999, probably not many people predicted that eventually most information on the internet would be served by a half dozen dominant “platforms” which would practice strong censorship or that the actual hosting of web content would be controlled by an even smaller number of colossal corporations.

    As far as technology goes, Bitcoin itself (and most other cryptocurrencies) isn’t actually anonymous. The ledger is public and shows all transactions as well as wallet balances, so if someone’s wallet is itself not kept private the anonymity is nil. The NSA is already tracking cryptocurrency transactions: https://www.investopedia.com/news/nsa-worked-track-down-bitcoin-users-snowden-papers-reveal/

    Privacy coins such as Monero have been invented to deal with this problem. Monero has an opaque ledger. But we should all be skeptical of the ability of technology to defeat state attacks. It’s not implausible that some privacy coins were themselves created by state actors as a honeypot.

    For now access to crypto also largely runs through banking systems and centralized exchanges, which provide further mechanisms for state control. Coinbase for instance does not even offer Monero owing to concerns from regulators, and the (in)famous offshore exchange Binance is in the crosshairs of many national governments for providing means of evading KYC and AML regulations.

    So while crypto is likely to change everything and upend the world, I am highly skeptical that it will bring people financial privacy.

    • Thanks: Brás Cubas
    • Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard
  187. @Vishnugupta

    Showmereal mentioned the Plaza Accords. He’s onto something, but misdates it. The Plaza Accords in fact increased Japanese innovation, as Japanese firms dealt with the higher exchange rate by increasing their productivity and innovation. South Korea was not ready for prime time a generation ago, as anyone who remembers Lucky Goldstar electronics and how terrible Korean cars were then knows.

    But during the Global Financial Crisis, Japan became a safe heaven within Asia. This put sharp upwards pressure on the Yen, and many Japanese industries suddenly became uncompetitive relative to competitors in South Korea and Taiwan. The Japanese consumer electronics industry collapsed in a few years.

    Willem Thorbecke published some pieces on this:

    https://voxeu.org/article/investigating-effect-exchange-rate-changes-japan-china-east-asia-and-europe

    https://voxeu.org/article/why-japan-lost-its-comparative-advantage-producing-electronic-parts-and-components

    There is probably more to it than just this, though it’s significant. Back in the 1970s it was said that any debate between economists about Britain’s then ailing economy rapidly devolved into armchair sociology.

    In the same vein one thing I always notice is how terrible Japanese firms all seem to be at internet marketing and distribution. With a few exceptions like Sony and Nintendo, Japanese companies invariably have terrible websites. It’s hard to get information on their products, and it’s also hard to figure out where to buy them. I wanted to purchase a particular Honda lawn mower, and in addition to Honda not selling this product directly I couldn’t find it at any regional retailer. Eventually I had to settle for purchasing a lesser Honda lawn mower. Meanwhile Samsung and LG make all of this easy and seamless.

    One possible explanation for this was that in Japan the full development of the internet was delayed because of the persistence of fax machines and also strong development of the internet for feature phones in the 2000s, which proved not to be applicable outside Japan.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  188. Wagster says:

    Fred Reed waxes eloquent about the “digital yuan”, but why would anyone want to use a centralized stablecoin pegged to the yuan that’s controlled from the PBC given the variety of more discrete and already existing alternatives?

    – Smart contracts would be able to handle and certify cash flows in a completist way
    – A new kind of collateral would be born
    – Transparency could be shared with business partners in a credible way

    It makes me very unpopular to say this, but when you mix fiat with digital currency you get all these new superpowers that aren’t available to privately developed currencies.

    I write about it here: https://medium.com/@will_99737/digidollar-the-dawn-of-the-transparent-economy-de8148a08d09

    • Agree: mal
  189. @Yellowface Anon

    The people that we have to deal with are not accustomed to dealing in gold or silver. Right now, most people want paper money in any transaction. To find an individual that is willing to swap gold or silver for whatever it is he is selling is a rare find.

    As the currency heads to zero value, most people are going to continue wanting the inflated dollars because they don’t know what to do with the PM’s. PM’s are also denominated in ounces, for the most part and are not set up for small transactions. Trying to buy a loaf of bread with an ounce of gold isn’t going to work out that well, for example. Even trying it with an ounce of silver will be problematic. If people start cutting up PM’s, what measurement device is everyone going to have to cut off enough to pay for that loaf of bread, and how is the seller now going to get rid of some sliver of metal to make his purchase?

    When the dollar hits near zero, there might be a change of mind among the bulk of the population, but that’s long into the destruction of the dollar. What do you do in the interim to survive? It could take months to years for the gradual slide to take place. During that time, it will be difficult to find a trading partner that will accept payment in PM’s.

    That barter arrangements will sprout is guaranteed. People will trade their skills for commodities, trade PM’s, trade all manner of things, but that doesn’t make for a robust economic situation.

    I would ask you to also calm down, as I’m on your side. I just happen to think that what you describe isn’t an easy thing to accomplish and there will be many casualties along the way. Those holding gold and silver will become targets for those that don’t. It’s going to be ugly.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  190. @Ralph B. Seymour

    I have no doubt that eventually reality will prevail, but in the interim, all manner of fiat will be attempted to keep the phony currency system going and most people will go along. The first country that makes gold and silver their primary money will signal that the fiat game is over.

    The SDR will make an appearance. It won’t last if for no other reason than the criminals in every gov’t will try to gain an advantage using their currency. The CBDC’s will be tried and since they don’t fundamentally turn dollars into something with intrinsic value, that experiment will also fail eventually. Trouble is the time frames. It could take years for these attempts to continue cheating the population to fail. You and I need to eat during that time period.

    • Replies: @Ralph B. Seymour
  191. @Thorfinnsson

    I’m a professional software developer. I owned a computer center in the US for many years and hand built around 2000 machines for clients myself. My employees built many more thousands of boxes. I understand the hardware and software business from the inside.

    I’m not into chasing the latest tulip mania. From my perspective, the entire crypto space is made up of those that want to take advantage of other people and the dolts that let them succeed. I want no part of such a disgusting business. I’d be in the porn business before I touched crypto.

    You keep making things up about me that anyone reading your prose knows is just bullshit, but you persist. I realize you don’t want anyone to tell the dirty truth about crypto since you are apparently part of the scam. I just think someone should do it and given your rude and insulting tone, I must be over the target.

    You may have the last word because you’re simply too disgusting an individual to deal with.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  192. @RoatanBill

    Which is why cryptos, which are very divisible and having a mix of hard issuance caps and fixed rate of inflation, would be useful if they are exchanged in an underground economy (which means hiding the transactions from enforcers from the Treasury). Many of the biggest ones have public ledgers, but fearing those with opaque ledgers being intruded, is like constantly fearing a bank robbery wiping out savings in your account.

    What is also guaranteed is the scale of economic “destruction”, not because elites are out to break stuff while pushing thru their agenda, but because the fundamental ideology of economic liberalism has run its course, and the transition away from it will be painful because the “gains” will largely be gone. You won’t have capitalism, let alone AnCap, after the dust settles. might see some “libertarian” thoughts from me, only because many actors think in this way or its antithesis, and act accordingly, and not because those are cogent ways of organizing a stable society.

  193. @Thorfinnsson

    In 1999, probably not many people predicted that eventually most information on the internet would be served by a half dozen dominant “platforms” which would practice strong censorship or that the actual hosting of web content would be controlled by an even smaller number of colossal corporations.

    Yesterday I looked at Gilmore’s homepage and it hasn’t been updated since 2013. He is 64 years old and most guys with that status do not check out that young (he was only 56 in 2013) unless they get sick. I hope he is OK.

    (Here is his page if anybody is curious to look at something which increasingly looks like it is transplanted from a parallel universe: http://www.toad.com/gnu/)

  194. @Not Raul

    Right, in the same article

    Before the event, reports surfaced that VW would be pivoting away from its main battery supplier, South Korea’s LG Chem, and was turning to China’s CATL, according to Automotive News, citing South Korea’s Money Today online news site.

    So far as this sector, the Allies have already landed in Normandy and there’s no turning back.

    But Karlin is right in the sense you don’t win by grinding it out and making the best product. You win by Selling It.

    • Replies: @That Would Be Telling
  195. @tamo

    Big Mac Index by The Economist

    When I go on dates I impress women by showing off how many more big macs I can buy with the same amount of money

    Switzerland alone has produced more Nobels than all of East Asia (also probably more ski resorts). It was never bombed during Wars so you can walk the old town in Zürich and see the residences of Lenin and Schrödinger. One of the few places in Continental Europe with a start up scene.

    Aside from banking and watchmaking, its famous for the specialized service of uh, mercenaries?

    Claudius: Where are my Switzers? Let them guard the door.

    Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

    • Replies: @tamo
  196. @RoatanBill

    Congratulations on developing Bonzi Buddy and building 2,000 machines equipped with the legendary VIA Cyrix processor!

    There is of course no doubt of shady behavior in the crypto space, just witness the recent run of animal shitcoins that flooded the market to capitalize on the Dogecoin pump. Outright crime is also common, mostly infamously the massive Mount Gox heist.

    But all of this started with you opining on a crypto mining without bothering to do the barest research about it.

    As for me, I’m long crypto but it is a minor share of my portfolio. It would be financial malpractice to advise anyone to put a significant fraction of his portfolio into crypto. I dabbled in ASIC mining a few years ago and now limit myself to small scale GPU mining.

  197. @Adept

    Besides, American military planners have talked about blockading China for decades. Do you think that the Chinese are unaware of this, or unprepared for it? That they’re building that missile-laden Navy for nothing?

    Unless and until they can find and kill nuclear attack subs, like the ones Australia has decided to procure twelve of, those missiles won’t have anything to do, except the previously mentioned nukes in attacks against the blockading countries, cities in countervalue or maybe they’re start with counterforce attacks on naval bases.

    But that class of subs are high endurance and probably pretty self-sufficient, need food, some chemicals for processing the air, and more torpedoes and missiles, not sure we’d be smart enough to hide the latter sufficiently … all around it’s a terrible gamble. And if the Learned Elders of Wye are perceived as orchestrating this blockade of the PRC, wouldn’t the CCP make a point of nuking NYC and Israel? The latter doesn’t need more than 1-2 strikes to effectively destroy it.

    • Replies: @Adept
  198. @RoatanBill

    This is the conundrum: How will gold transactions be made? It seems to me they will have to be made with a fiat substitute for gold.

    Of course this could work. As long as Jews and their minions are excluded from the process.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  199. @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    I’m not following the details of your argument, but I think you should quote the whole relevant part of the article:

    Initially, the ID 4’s battery pack, which is comprised of 288 pouch cells in 12 modules, will be produced by South Korea’s LG Chem. But once ID 4 production shifts to Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2022, the batteries will be supplied by SK Innovation, another South Korean company that recently opened a \$2 billion factory nearby VW’s plant there.

    Before the [VW battery announcements] event, reports surfaced that VW would be pivoting away from its main battery supplier, South Korea’s LG Chem, and was turning to China’s CATL, according to Automotive News, citing South Korea’s Money Today online news site.

    VW also has contracts with two other major battery producers, Samsung and CATL….

    From both personal experience with a manufactured by LG cellphone and how GM is now suffering from incorrectly made by LG batteries, I can well imagine WV turning to practically anyone else who might be able to make batteries correctly. Which from first principles I wouldn’t expect from the PRC, but they obviously can do it well enough. Also note Samsung’s infamous cellphone battery fires.

    (I don’t trust any of them, keep all my devices with them when at rest in metal or ceramic containers or dishes to limit the damage they’ll cause if they catch on fire. Someday we should be moving to safer chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4), but for now stuffing the most watt-hours into the smallest space is the thing.)

  200. I own PM’s. I don’t expect to use them directly to purchase routine goods. I might be able to barter for major purchases like property, trading title to the property for so and so much PM’s but that’s a long shot.

    My reason for holding PM’s has been to sell them for some currency when PM’s gain to where I believe they belong and then trade the currency for property BEFORE the SHTF and the currency goes to no value. It’s a timing thing.

    PM’s will rise as inflation increases and at some point, PM’s will be valued reasonably and I’ll sell some of the PM’s for some trash currency that a seller is expecting. Almost no one is expecting payment in PM’s. I’ll use the trash currency like a hot potato and hold it only long enough to complete the purchase of some major thing I want. I’ll sit on the remainder of the PM’s. There are several parts of the world where I might want to end up and that will determine which currency will be used temporarily to convert PM’s to high value goods.

    I’m not trying to sell at the high since no one knows where that will be. I want to sell some when I think I can trade it for something else I value an equivalent amount.

    • Replies: @Realist
  201. Dmitry says:
    @Vishnugupta

    LG bought Kodaks’ WRGB OLED patents – WRGB is the technology which is cheaper to produce and which has more lifespan, and it seems like it will be the viable option for mass adoption of the OLED.

    Greater difficulty has been to make people initially switch to OLED, which is still not completely mature.

    For example, Philips still has not released its burn-in solution. So probably only after 2022 that we might expect this in their products.
    https://www.whathifi.com/news/in-development-philips-tech-solves-95-per-cent-of-oled-burn-in-issues

    such slow development of next generation Micro LED technology.Again the first working micro LED

    When introducing new technology, television industry is not only zero-sum competition for market share between the different brands. Rather all the brands need the consumers as the whole to adopt the new technology.

    Consumers haven’t switched to OLED yet and it hasn’t even fully matured (solved burn-in issues) or become low cost yet.

    I bought my OLED television in 2018 for crazy high price, and I felt like somekind risky pioneer. That’s just three years ago that the first mainstream people were buying their first OLED, and feeling risky (because of the burn-in concerns). OLED prices had still been unaffordable for most television buyers until around 2020.

    OLED is still considered new and expensive by consumers (who usually only upgrade their television every 4-5 years) and it’s only a small market share of televisions at the moment.

    It would not likely be good for the industry, if they already abandoned the latest technology because profiting from its adoption.

    Consumers will start to adopt OLED televisions during the decade 2020s, and when they reached higher up the S-curve for adoption of OLED, then will be more sensible time to prepare the subsequent technology that the consumers will have to adopt again.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  202. Truth says:

    Conversely, the first gene-selected baby in the world was born a few weeks ago in the US (the father’s political views raised a minor journalistic furor).

    Any “new technology” that they admit in the news, is 40 years old. That’s rule, always -40.

  203. Adept says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Yeah, but two can play that game. Australia won’t even get those submarines for ten years, best case, whereas China right now has the world’s largest submarine fleet — including at least a dozen nuclear subs, with many more in the works.
    https://news.usni.org/2020/10/12/chinese-increasing-nuclear-submarine-shipyard-capacity

    If the US subsurface fleet decides to start attacking Chinese merchant vessels, you can expect the Chinese navy to, at the very least, respond in kind.

    And, in parallel, the Chinese are investing tremendous energies in developing overland trade routes which cannot be blockaded. These are fully operational and quite useful. Already, there’s an awful lot of overland trade between China and Europe — I’ve worked with a UK firm that regularly receives stuff from China via rail.

    The US is arguably more vulnerable to retaliation than China is to a blockade.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  204. @Ralph B. Seymour

    Are you positing a cosmetic solution (gold certs that can be inflated like paper gold) for a structural problem (fiat controlled by the state/central bank) as RoatanBill sees it?

    • Replies: @Ralph B. Seymour
  205. tamo says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    The reason China has received no Nobel Prizes in sciences except just one Nobel Prize in medicine a few years ago, is that in the past, China being a relatively poor and developing country, concentrated it’s meager financial resources in applied science to make reasonably adequate export goods to bring in money to develop the country as quickly as possible instead of spending precious little money it had on pure basic research that might give you bragging rights by winning Nobel prizes but it does little in advancing practical technologies that is a result of applied science research.

    Now China got richer it has started spending a lot more money in basic research, so you will see China getting many Nobel Prizes in the next 10-20 years.

    For your information. Japan did the exactly what China has been doing. In the 20th century, Japan didn’t get many Nobel Prizes in sciences because it concentrated in applied science rather than in basic research. . But starting in about the 1980s, Japan began spending heavily on basic research. That’s the reason why it gets more than it’s share of Nobel Prizes in the 21st century. I’m very happy for Japan

    Anyway, Nobel Prizes are lagging indicator rewarding scientists for what they accomplished 20 or 30 years ago. According to Karlin, the better indicator for present and future scientific strength is the Nature Index to which the biggest contributing group seems to be ethnic Chinese.

    Swiss mercenaries? Aren’t they the ones protecting the Pope at the Vatican with halberds? LOL !!
    By the way I have no problem whatsoever getting dates with good looking white women. I personally prefer blonds and I’m a former paratrooper.

  206. @tamo

    Swiss mercenaries? Aren’t they the ones protecting the Pope at the Vatican with halberds? LOL !!

    Switzerland outlawed the practice quite some time ago with that one exception, before they were about the most feared in Europe. And they of course have modern weapons, see the later pictures here, their tricolor uniform could hide a FN P90 quite well although it says they went with the H&K MP7 rival. They of course have more practical uniforms, and SIG 55Xs they learned to use in Swiss basic training.

    • Replies: @tamo
  207. Dmitry says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Japanese companies invariably have terrible website

    This will be likely because they didn’t plan to sell to ordinary consumers in your market. So why invest in an expensive website, when you are not trying to sell to end users.

    If you sell to professional customers in different countries, there can be different legal implications and probabilities if you will sell to ordinary consumers or end users.

    For example, we notice that all Samsung and Sony/Murata, are currently trying to prevent the sale of their lithium battery cells (e.g. 18650s) to end-use consumers – which is very bad news for the hobbyist communities.

    Ordinary DIY people and electrical engineering hobbyists have been always buying or recycling these battery cells for their DIY projects (making your own battery pack e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnE8DWQ_ik0. ), or for using in flashlights or vaping products.

    But the positive on these batteries is only the button on top, while negative is the uninsulated cell body (the outer case). At the top the positive and negative therefore directly next to each other, and only insulated by a top cap.

    An ordinary consumer can easily damage the top cap and short-circuit the battery. It can easily cause injuries and fires, for end-use consumers. So you can see why Samsung and Sony/Murata are trying to make it as difficult to buy their products (for end-users) as possible. They are only prepared to sell these cells to professional customers, who build them into protected battery packs.

    Japanese companies invariably have terrible websites

    Lol generally the worse the website of the company, the better quality the products they sell. There is the website for Takahashi telescopes – the world’s best quality consumer telescopes. https://www.takahashijapan.com/products.html

    But those Japanese brands like “Luxman” or “Kawai” with upper class end-user international fanbases, usually have pretty nice websites with poetic writing styles.

    http://www.luxman.com/product/detail.php?id=19

    ” The rich gradation sound quality has been achieved from deep bass sound to clear high tone with sufficient drive force acquired by connecting the 4-parallel push-pull structural output units in parallel.”

    https://www.kawai.co.uk/products/grandpianos/shigerukawai/skex/

    And nobody produces cooler catalogues and brochures than Japanese companies with all the diagrams.

  208. @AnonfromTN

    Bold of you to speak so definitively about the future of 3 incredibly complicated technologies and in disagreement with the people who know them best.

    Maybe you’re different, but I notice that people who speak like you are always proven wrong.

    The problem with authoritarian governments like the one Xi is trying to construct is that they’re terrible at recognising how little they know or are even able to work out or find out. They also tend to get high on their own supply when things go well.

    Imagine the hubris in thinking that what your 1.4 billion intelligent and productive people really need is a centralised state, headed by you or your avatar, that bans them doing technological, social and cultural experimentation which it finds threatening.

  209. tamo says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks for the information and three cheers for the Swiss Guards.

    • Thanks: That Would Be Telling
  210. @Dmitry

    Samsung doesn’t seem to be following this plan to counter W-OLED it is about to commercialize QNED technology next year (instead of meekly buying OLED panels from LG and tweaking with the image processing algorithms like the Japanese)and Micro LED by 2025.

    They also as a back up are investing in their own OLED tech for TVs the QD OLED which overcomes the problem of inadequate peak brightness that WOLED suffers from.

    This is the sort of aggression the Japanese electronics industry was once famous for.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  211. @Yellowface Anon

    Yeah. All you have to do is keep the Jews out of it.

    Crypto could be tied to gold and worldwide honest commerce would flourish. Organized crime (govt. and Jew Bankers) would be minimized.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  212. Dmitry says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Russia seems to be having much more successful in commercial aerospace

    If you are talking about plane production (i.e. Sukhoi Superjet 100), this is loss-making in its total balance. That is the money from the budget for years, for manufacturing disguised as business, and that employs children of political appointments as the managers. So it’s really more like NASA or Roskosmos.

    The problem is promoting it as if it was economically competitive profit industry, is confusing for the voters. That is, voters would support drawing ultimately billions of money from the budget for something prestigious like a space station, but not so much for a civilian aircraft (that latter is only justifiable as an actual overall profitable investment, which is not the situation).

    Japanese public should never have accepted to waste money on developing a regional jet, but at least pausing it now there will be perhaps understanding the sunk cost fallacy.

    • Troll: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @kzn
    , @Anatoly Karlin
  213. Pericles says:
    @antibeast

    In addition, cryptocurrencies based on decentralized, permissionless blockchains requiring PoW (‘Proof of Work’) or PoS (‘Proof of Stake’) algorithms are simply too computationally-intensive to be technically scalable. They are also not economically viable as digital currencies because those blockchain algorithms require computing power which now exceeds the power consumption of entire nations!

    Last I heard, proof-of-stake was intended to address the power problems of proof-of-work. Since most if not all still use proof-of-work, it seems far too soon to tar proof-of-stake with the same brush.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  214. Dmitry says:
    @Vishnugupta

    Or they have some parsimony in business, than to use their resources for rapidly introducing the next stage of the technology, before the previous technology has been adopted by the consumers and started to generate profits.

    Currently OLED is only a minority of new television sales even in the most advanced markets.

    In terms of the total adoption (rather than new sales), it’s below 10% of the active market has so far bought an OLED television. So OLED will be still in the “early adopters” stage of the penetration in the traditional graphs.

    So we could expect that MicroLED is something they will be preparing slowly for the ordinary consumers while the OLED is only just becoming a golden goose.

    But Sony are rolling out their MicroLED for professional customers only.

    ” Sony is the second company at CES 2021 to announce new MicroLED screens – which it’s calling ‘Crystal LED’ – following Samsung announcing its own sets. The new Sony B-Series and C-Series Crystal LED Displays are currently exclusively for professional use in modular form”

    It will go up to 1800 nits which is kind of scary to me (as someone whose eyes can hurt from the brightness on my OLED).

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
  215. Blade says:
    @Johnplywood

    Okay, let’s say white rust belt towns where meth and opioid addiction are rampant then. The point is supposedly dangerous parts of Japan or China are actually much safer than most of the US. Of course, if you never leave your middle-class suburbs you are relatively safer than most people in the US, but it says nothing about the country as a whole. The chances of you getting attacked on street are very low in the US (then what is very low? you could also say the same about pretty much any country), but relative to China or Japan? Even in the US, Asians have a significantly lower rate of crime. What are you arguing about here? You just proved my point, your “very low risk” perception is actually probably about the same level of Japanese people’s “very dangerous,” definition. So take it with a grain of salt when you hear about dangerous parts of Japan or China. The decay in rural Japan has to do with the aging population and youth leaving for big cities. It is not “rotten” in the sense of crime, degeneracy, and drug addiction. Rural China was always poor, but very safe regardless.

  216. Blade says:
    @tamo

    China will not receive a lot of Nobel Prizes unless it kneels before the West. I don’t get the obsession with Nobel Prize as if it is the standard for scientific or artistic success anyway. It is a Swedish-made prize, which, curiously awarded a very high number of Swedes despite their meager contributions. Add in the racism and/or Eurocentrism at least until the late 90s, and it is very difficult to take it seriously as an indicator of something other than Western confirmation bias. Tolstoy didn’t get a Nobel literature prize, but Churchill did enough said. I personally do not even follow who received the prize and I don’t even care, it is irrelevant and not worthy of paying attention to.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon, Pharaoh
    • Thanks: tamo
  217. @Blade

    You are generally correct. Nobel prizes in sciences are ~50% politicized: a lot of real achievements are rewarded, but a lot of equally important ones are not. Nobel prizes in literature are ~90% politicized: most good writers never get them, whereas many people who are mediocre or downright crappy writers/poets do. Nobel peace prize (we can’t blame Nobel for that, he did not establish this category) is 100% political. Suffice it to say that Palestinian and Israel terrorists, as well as war criminal Obama received that.

    • Thanks: tamo
    • Replies: @Pericles
  218. @Yellowface Anon

    “how rotten smaller towns in Japan are”

    You mean ageing? Industries gone, young people likewise? Like Milwaukee, whose crumbling, empty factories in the 1980s reminded me of Sheffield/Rotherham after most of the steel went?

    That, in Japan, is a paradise compared with UK and US counterparts. Rotherham is now famous, not for steel, but for the grooming and rape of 1400 young English girls. The former mining and industrial areas of the UK are heroin-ridden disaster zones, and most of the street level and mid level dealers are black or Asian (subcontinental not Chinese).

    I invite you to compare the paper of the UK capital

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime

    With one of the six papers of the Japanese capital. I can’t look at the “Crime” pages because they don’t have them.

    https://www.asahi.com/ajw/national_report/

  219. kzn says:
    @Dmitry

    SJ-100 had a huge order from Aeroflot, just before the pandemic, and some other companies. The order is that big it secures SJ-100 as profitable for a long time.

    Orders from the main Russian airliner companies are all it needs, not any of the major foreign countries or even ex USSR central Asian states – because our market is so big, and that particular size aircraft is perfect in flight range and passenger seats for domestic flights because of our unique population density and city locations.

    For long flights in Europe /asia/US the SJ-100 is too small, and for shirt/medium too inefficient for their short flights.

    Blatant protectionism with all the well-known problems in spare parts, maintenance and logistics? Of course – but protectionism they can do easily when companies like Aeroflot are performing very well to be able to order them – and at the same time giving UAC the space for solving all these operational problems.

    As for nepotism – Mincelkhoz is one of the most successful government departments, headed by Patrushev’s son. I think there is plenty of non-elites in top positions at big Russian companies to at least counteract this – and if you accept it as normal though unfair for most russian elites to have educated their kids in US/UK/Ita/Swiss etc schools from the 90s until 2014 – then they can partially justify getting jobs at top Russian companies as their international education should be some advantage.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Philip Owen
  220. @Dmitry

    OLED adoption is hamstrung by the LG monopoly on WOLED panels. Its sales will always be equal to how many panels a single producer i.e. LG can churn out and LG as a monopoly will always charge a premium on its panels.

    If multiple players could bring out their own WOLEDs driving innovation and lowering costs OLEDs would have replaced LCDs by now at least in Televisions.

    Instead we will see within the next 2-5 emerging technologies mini led with 1000s of dimming zones,QNED,Dual cell LCD etc and consumer micro led towards the latter half of this decade.

    I believe the trigger will be 8K televisions becoming standard in the next 3-5 years and there being no practical way to cost effectively produce 8K WOLED panels.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  221. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    China will not receive a lot of Nobel Prizes unless it kneels before the West.

    Wokeness and Globalism are much more important than geography. For example:

    Paul Krugman obtained his medal in… Hhmmmmmm…. NY Times trade theory? No? How about… Faux Academic shilling for Globalist MegaCorporations?

    Yasser Arafat and Barack Hussein Obama both received the Nobel War Prize for destabilizing the Middle East.

    The Nobel & Oscar committees are now in a foot race (∆) to heap praise on AOC for her tearful House Floor performance. A defensive system that saves lives is anathema to the Elite, anti-Western panel that awards the Nobel War Prize. Her sobbing and whimpering display of weakness is exactly what the Nobel committee is looking for.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (∆) I was going to say marathon rather than foot race but caught myself. Using Marathon respects Greek, and therefore Western, excellence.

    • Replies: @Blade
  222. Blade says:
    @A123

    I believe 99.99% of Western critics misunderstand globalism and multiculturalism. They are both tools to extend and continue Western hegemony. As the rest of the world inevitably catches up in education, economy, and understand Western notions, it would be impossible to continue hegemony without making the rest of the world enemy. The solution is the idea of globalism and multiculturalism. Globalism serves developed nations by opening up developing markets and preventing tariffs that’d allow local industries to compete with foreign entities. Multiculturalism weakens nationalist fervor around the world and allows Western cultural exports and ideals to flourish; both of which are crucial to continuing the hegemony. There is a downside to multiculturalism, I don’t need to explain it, but without some kinds of risks and backlash, there is no way to achieve continuation of the Western supremacy. Ordinary people in the right (and left) don’t understand these things, so they’ll blame Jews or elite conspiracy or the Leftists. I wonder how they suggest continuing the Western supremacy? Do they even realize that Europe cannot sustain high living standards without Asia or Africa? America is much luckier from the resource perspective, but even living in the US would have been much more modest compared to its current standards. So, it is a choice Western elites made to continue the material well-being of their countries, and it is a long game.

    Maybe Nobel will be a global unbiased thing sometime in the future, but so far it has mostly been politically motivated, and there wasn’t even much of a concept of globalism or multiculturalism (contrary to Eurocentrism) for the most part of its existence anyway.

    • Agree: Tdstype2
    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Yellowface Anon
  223. Not Raul says:
    @That Would Be Telling

    The article seems to say that, in the short to medium term, VW will buy batteries from a variety of suppliers; but in the long term, they’ll make their own, superior, batteries.

  224. Yevardian says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Well, unlike minerals (or any other real commodity), Bitcoin has zero intrinsic value, and unlike regular fiat currencies, none of them even have the security of a sovereign state to back them up.
    Whatever merits the technology involved actually has, will eventually find adoption in state currencies, if they indeed have any real use outside of criminal transactions or pyramid schemes.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  225. Dmitry says:
    @kzn

    It’s profited for the journalists, as they can write every year about how money is lost for more than a decade and a half now.

    There’s not profit making either in total (including investment costs – which is probably impossible to break even with), or even after the investments (they still lose money so many years later https://lenta.ru/news/2019/04/04/beda/ ).

    Government investment for Sukhoi Superjet 100 development has been up to seven billions dollars. And the government still has to cover losses of people who bought it ( https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-5401610 ) and has to buy the ones sold to previous customers (https://lenta.ru/news/2021/01/25/ssj/) and use the Sovereign Wealth Fund to purchase them in the future ( https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4898386 )

    Even if Iran will eventually buy some of the import substituted version, the relatively small profits from such a sale this will only cover a small portion of expenditure.

    With this spending, the question is always to be understood in terms of opportunity cost. The same money can be used to invest in education, hospital, infrastructure, or to support future industries that could become profitmaking.

    That is, opportunity cost includes less investment into industries which have a higher chance of generating returns for the economy and the employees.

    If a perfectly managed project, building local version of regional civilian aircraft (which is mature 20th century technology) is never likely going to add much boost for an economy.

    Even wildly successful Embraer in terms of market share for regional plane production, is loss making for the last years.
    https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/erj/financials (Even aside from the fact Embraer are lossmaking, the size of the revenue is 15 times smaller than e.g. Dior). And this is Embraer, which produces thousands of E-Jet regional passenger planes for international customers.

    protectionism with all the well-known problems in spare parts, maintenance and logistics? Of course – but protectionism they can do easily when companies like Aeroflot

    But the original promotion of the project was rapidly produce a cheap, competitive plane, using international parts, etc, that all kinds of foreign companies would buy. It was presented as a efficient and rapid project that would generate somekind of overall profit.

    • Replies: @Not Raul
    , @showmethereal
  226. Realist says:
    @RoatanBill

    Sound advice…I’m doing the same.

    • Thanks: RoatanBill
  227. @Thorfinnsson

    The question is: do you have to be the first ones?

    If it proves to be good, China, say, can catch up, no?

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  228. I am increasingly skeptical about [China’s] ability to produce anything that is… really interesting/world-transformational. It continues making top-down decisions that, as in centuries past, may curtail the ultimate scope of its civilizational achievements.

    China has already produced 98% home ownership and eliminated extreme poverty. Given that’s it’s still a per-capita lower income country, doesn’t it surprise you that there are more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, illiterate, and imprisoned citizens in America than in China?

    China leads in most scientific disciplines and its quantum work is especially interesting.

    As to ‘top down decisions,’ that’s an American, not a Chinese thing. China’s goal-setting is consensual:

    And even its finances are decentralized:

  229. VVV says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    It’s pretty funny how many of the early crypto developers were Austrian cultists, yet in the end, for crypto to accomplish its original goal of becoming a widespread means of payment cryptos are moving from PoW protocols to more centralised PoS. Even Buterin called Austrian economics a stupid cope for fringe autists.

  230. Regarding HAIJIN policy of five or three hundred years ago, there were the Ottomans and the Tsars, they were also experiencing a traumatic 20th century.

    And Japan as well, they openned up more efficiently and then they underwent Hiroshima.

    My point is that the onslaught of modernity might not have been avoidable if the imperial China adopted different policies regarding sea exploration and trade.

    China as it stands now is still solidly in a catching up position. To be too adventuous on the front of human explorations is probably not a good idea especially when there might not be too significant a firstcomer advantage.

    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  231. @Godfree Roberts

    It is clear to anyone who is not blind by choice that in “authoritarian” China and Russia government policies align a lot better with the wishes of the populace that in “democratic” West. That is trivial, although it cannot be agreed upon by those who refuse to see the reality.

    More interesting (at least from my perspective) is the fact that while both Western Europe and the US are self-destructing due to idiotic actions of their elites, a lot greater fraction of the population in the UK and France sees that, as compared to the US. Are Europeans more astute, or is the US propaganda more pervasive?

  232. @yakushimaru

    The correct answer is acceleratation.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  233. @That Would Be Telling

    Thanks for pointing it out. I didn’t read the article thoroughly. My point is broader,

    1. I fully acknowledge that many aspects of Made in China that deserves its reputation. In addition to QA questions, it’s at a lower end of production, so far lower margins. The net margin for an iPhone is \$150+, for Huawei \$15, Xiaomi \$2

    2. But compared to Germany, China (and US) is making more headways in emerging technologies. 30+ percent of cost basis of EV is battery. At least one can say CJK will be competitive in this high-margin EV sector.

    For self-driving cars also because CJK is more wired than Germany. Yes, there are privacy concerns that I empathized with, but I’m speaking here first on economics.

    3. When comparing Germany to Japan, Thorfinnsson and AK are completely correct in there being a gap in GDP per hours worked. I’ve alluded to the reason for it here

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/open-thread-163/#comment-4889964

    The problem is called Involution 内卷, when a system becomes more complex without advancing efficiency.

    This was initially described in a book Agricultural Involution about Dutch-colonized Indonesia. In East Asia there’s not a culture of work-life balance so people are striving in a zero-sum game of overtime inflation.

    Again I argue the problem is the higher population density in CJK. Only 200 years ago China had about the same population as US and that led to an overpopulation Malthusian disaster called Taiping Rebellion. Thus I don’t buy into the argument that China has “low birth rate issue”

    4. I’m not against financial innovation in general, but I’m not against CCP’s decision to curb it either. The West can accuse China of making Faustian bargains to get ahead, but the Globohomo Financial System almost completely blew up in flames in 2008 based on 2 financial “innovations”

    a. Subprime MBS based on the assumption that US housing prices can only monotonically increase

    And more importantly

    b. Synthetic CDO contracts written by AIG, which assumed correlation of mortgage defaults, like in actuarial science, can be modeled using a Gaussian copula (joint distribution).

  234. Dmitry says:
    @Vishnugupta

    It might be in a few years – for now supply of the panels is above demand reportedly, and bottleneck for the OLED adaptation (or any new television) is a chip shortage.

    will see within the next 2-5 emerging technologies mini led with 1000s of dimming zones,

    When Sony introduce MicroLED to the consumer market, then this will undercut their OLED products which are already a kind of expensive “halo” product. It will likely be carefully timed introduction.

    At the moment, it looks like they don’t want a rapid introduction MicroLED before the OLEDs have been adopted. This is evident from Sony’s behaviour where it only promotes this technology for professional customers already, even though they could sell it as an expensive consumer product

    They release it this year only for professional customers, and hide it from the nonprofessional consumer market.

    It’s not uncommon they slowly stage introduction of the next technology. OLED itself was very slowly introduced, if you consider that Sony released the first OLED television in 2007, but it only by 2016 that OLED television became an option of below around \$3000 for customers.

  235. Dmitry says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    doesn’t it surprise you more homeless, poor, illiterate, and imprisoned citizens in America than in China

    Not really surprising. USSR already had higher indicators than America in some of areas relating to public life, such as public transport infrastructure. America has unusually strong default settings for “public poverty, private wealth” and “high risk, high reward”. USA is a “New World” colony, and its low investment in the public space relative to its high income, is very non normal from the perspective of any “Old World” country – but its settings are more typical for other “New World” colonies on their continent like Brazil and Mexico. Most all countries in the American continent, have been very successful from the perspective of their colonial elites, but with a relatively lower sense of social obligation to the total mass of the population than in an “Old World” country.

    • Agree: iffen
  236. Not Raul says:
    @Dmitry

    Do you think that the Russian government continues to support the SJ-100, because it provides opportunities for graft? It appears that the Rosnano tablet was supported for this reason.

    The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the F-35, put a lot of money in a lot of well-connected pockets, too.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  237. @Ralph B. Seymour

    Crypto could be tied to gold and worldwide honest commerce would flourish.

    Do you ever wonder if perhaps you have little idea of how things work?

    • Replies: @Ralph B. Seymour
  238. Dmitry says:
    @Not Raul

    Well managers include children of officials and from Instagram there has been an impression of vast wealth.

  239. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    globalism and multiculturalism. They are both tools to extend and continue Western hegemony. … Multiculturalism weakens nationalist fervor around the world and allows Western cultural exports and ideals to flourish; both of which are crucial to continuing the hegemony.

    The West is a victim of Globalism, not the source of hegemon.

    — Western culture is rooted in traditional Christian values
    — SJW Globalist culture is inherently anti-Christian
    — The West wants Nationalism not SJW Globalism

    The last thing Globalism wants is to spread authentic Western culture. Christian Populism (a.k.a. Western values) are diametrically opposed to Globalist hegemony. Globalism spreads anti-Western SJW culture to expand hegemony.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Blade
  240. @tamo

    I’m speaking here of only hard Nobels physics, chem, medicine. Of course it matters, along with Fields, Abel, and Wolf in math. And let’s acknowledge that there is a gap. The official CCP Youtube channel just released a program on (link under more)
    中国孩子缺乏钻研和创造精神,是哪里出了问题?Chinese youths lack research and creativity spirit. What’s wrong?

    The points made are:
    1. Expositions on popular science are exceptionally poor. There was a case when a Chinese mathematician (Chen Jingrun) made a partial breakthrough on the Goldbach Conjecture, which is a famous unsolved problem in number theory with a seductively simple statement understandable for the layman

    Prove that every even whole number greater than 2 is the sum of two prime numbers.

    But the science writer complete botched the story and failed to explain why its important and interesting.

    Primes are a concept based on multiplication, every number is a product of primes. Thus in a sense primes are like atoms, numbers are like molecules. But the Goldbach Conjecture makes a statement about addition, which implies a deep relationship between the addition and multiplication operations.

    And precisely because the statement is so simple that makes it difficult to prove.

    2. One of the main contributors to classical mechanics in physics, Carl Gustav Jacob (((Jacobi))), wrote a letter to his uncle at a young age, that he’s so passionate about and will devote his life to research in classical mechanics, and ever forsaking getting married.

    No Chinese will ever do that because they are just worried about passing exams. Partly because Chinese science teaching don’t inspire students to go beyond the textbooks.

    3. Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time, was translated with care in German. History in German can be either Historie or Geschichte, the former refers more to the actual study of history or historiography, the latter can be an oral or written storytelling.

    The German translation used the latter term which is more faithful to the content of Hawking’s book. The Chinese translation lazily used the former interpretation 时间简史, 简史= Historie

    A better translation would be 演义, as in 三国演义 Romance of Three Kingdoms, thus A Brief Romance of Time 时间演义.

    But most Chinese STEM types are so narrow and totally ignorant of the humanities, so why would they even know that?

    [MORE]

    • Troll: mulga mumblebrain
    • Replies: @tamo
  241. @Blade

    It is probably incorrect to assign a “Western” location for what is a liberal dynamic, but the “core-periphery” distinction. You will have globalism one way or another if you keep on having a liberal world, and multiculturalism that parasitize both Europe (or anywhere “advanced” enough) and the periphery will still brought about with the ethnically leveling rhetoric liberalism offers.

  242. @Daniel Chieh

    Accelerate and the Machine unravels.

  243. FerW says:

    So, considering recent trends, should we now expect politicians in the breakaway island to welcome “miners” and make moves towards legitimisation of decentralised cryptocoins?

  244. Tdstype2 says:
    @BRK2

    You understand China and the Chinese very well, certainly much more than 99% of Westerners…

  245. Tdstype2 says:
    @Blade

    Great incisive observation on westerners believing their own lies…. Absolutely true based on my observations as well.

  246. Blade says:
    @A123

    How is it a victim of globalism? Guess what happens if even just economic nationalism becomes the international standard rather than liberalism/globalism. Europe can no longer easily sell most of its products to most countries around the world. Globalism argues for a liberal order in which tariffs are eliminated (or low), this kind of system helps already developed countries. Idiocy globalism spreads isn’t a one side sword, it also harms developing countries, partly because of the other aspect of globalism: multiculturalism. Imported minorities do not only affect Western countries but also their home countries. They are, for the most part, end up becoming agents of the West without realizing it. Do you realize many Chinese (or other nationalities), who are supposed to be very nationalistic, end up becoming SJWs in the countries they emigrated to? In the end, the West benefits more than it loses from a material perspective, thanks to globalism. Not just that but also, multiculturalism allows it to export Western values at a faster speed to the parts of the world they’d have no access to otherwise.

    You are talking of traditional Christian values. The last Christian died in the last century, what tradition are you speaking of? The West wants nationalism? Do you mean a minority who gets the crappy parts of multiculturalism and globalism, who don’t even realize that their countries are still nationalistic? As far as I know, open nationalism did not end well for the West, moreover, it caused rebellion after rebellion in their colonies as soon as the colonized started modernizing, and without a doubt, it would only cause Western hegemony to decline even faster. Otherwise, do you actually believe if India or Algeria didn’t revolt the Western countries would just stop taking advantage of them, and just let them go their own ways because they suddenly became SJW countries? So the facts are:

    – West is still nationalistic, it is just not the way it used to be, it is less obnoxious and open about it because if they were the same way they were in the 19th century it’d end up with a disaster for them now that competitor countries are close/peers technologically,
    – They understood obscene nationalism also causes infighting, as it did in WW1 and WW2,
    – It is still imperialistic, it is called globalism and multiculturalism,
    – Globalism spreads a lot of things, but anti-West sentiments are not one of those things,

    Finally, there is a reason why both right and left elites support globalism and multiculturalism, more or less openly. There is also a reason why Russia is constantly provoking nationalist/racist sentiments in the West. West turning nationalist (openly, bordering racism, in the sense alt-right wants) would be a boon to challenging powers like Russia, China, and Iran. Honestly, it would also benefit developing countries. Therefore, I think those who call for old-style nationalism do not know what they are wishing for.

    • Thanks: sher singh, Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @A123
  247. tamo says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    You said “I’m speaking here of only hard Nobels physics, chem, medicine. Of course it matters, along with Fields, Abel, and Wolf in math. And let’s acknowledge that there is a gap. The official CCP Youtube channel just released a program on (link under more)
    中国孩子缺乏钻研和创造精神,是哪里出了问题?Chinese youths lack research and creativity spirit. What’s wrong?

    You go back to my post 209, then You will find I said exactly “The reason China has received no Nobel Prizes in SCIENCES except just one Nobel Prize in medicine a few years ago—”
    I ONLY talked about Nobel Prizes in SCIENCES and nothing else.

    According to post 221 by AnonfromTN who I think is a retired research scientist, Nobel Prizes in SCIENCES are about 50% POLITICIZED. Read post 221.

    Anyway, Nobel Prizes are lagging indicator rewarding scientists for what they accomplished 20 or 30 years ago. According to Karlin, the better indicator for present and future scientific strength is the Nature Index to which the biggest contributing group seems to be ethnic Chinese.

    In the past China concentrated in applied math to produce as many excellent engineers as possible instead of emphasizing theoretical math to get Fields Medals. Since China is a lot richer now, it started spending a lot more money in the area of theoretical math.

    Not many things are wrong with Chinese students. Chinese teachers like the other East Asian ones have tendency to GREATLY exaggerate perceived academic shortcomings of their students to SPUR them ON.

    It’s an old trick used by Chinese teachers and parents to goad their students and children even though they damn well know their kids are pretty damn good academically.

    But I don’t mean that Chinese teachers and parents exaggerate their children’s scholastic short comings all the time because sometimes they are right.

    So when you hear academically negative things about Chinese students, you should take it with MANY grains of salt.

    you said “But most Chinese STEM types are so narrow and totally ignorant of the humanities, so why would they even know that?

    You think that’s bad. How about American students avoiding STEM all together but major in such b.s humanities majors as black studies, philosophy, history etc? You think Chinese students are bad, then you should look at how bad American students are academically.

    I’m going to quote a NY TIMES article written by professors Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa who studied American college students’ study habits for more than 4 years.

    They found out, in a typical semester, for instance, 32 percent of the students did not take a single course with more than 40 pages of reading per week, and 50 percent did not take any course requiring more than 20 pages of writing over the semester. The average student spent only about 12 to 13 hours per week studying.

    Not surprisingly, a large number of the students showed no significant progress on tests of CRITICAL thinking, COMPLEX reasoning and writing that were administered when they began college and then again at the ends of their sophomore and senior years.

    If the test that they used, the Collegiate Learning Assessment, were scaled on a traditional 0-to-100 point range, 45 percent of the students would not have demonstrated gains of even one point over the first two years of college, and 36 percent would not have shown such gains over four years of college

    Also there is another article in TIME titled “The Real Reason New College Grads Can’t Get Hired

    the problem with the unemployability of these young American adults go way beyond a lack of STEM skills. As it turns out, they can’t even show up on time in a button-down shirt and organize a team project.

    A survey by the Workforce Solutions Group at St. Louis Community College finds that more than 60% of employers say applicants lack “communication and interpersonal skills” — a jump of about 10 percentage points in just two years. A wide margin of managers also say today’s applicants can NOT think CRITICALLY and CREATIVELY, solve problems or write well.

    According to an April 27, 2016 The Wall Street Journal quoting the National Assessment of Educational Progress, only 37% of American 12th-graders were academically prepared for college math and reading in 2015, a slight dip from two years earlier.

    So you can see there is absolutely no comparison between academically very diligent Chinese students and failure-bound sorry-butt American students.

    You should remember that from the ancient times China has been one of the most CREATIVE and INNOVATIVE countries in the world.
    There is a good chance China will become the biggest economy and technology superpower in the very near future as China was until the coming of the Industrial Revolutiom.

  248. @Blade

    Imported minorities do not only affect Western countries but also their home countries. They are, for the most part, end up becoming agents of the West without realizing it. Do you realize many Chinese (or other nationalities), who are supposed to be very nationalistic, end up becoming SJWs in the countries they emigrated to? In the end, the West benefits more than it loses from a material perspective, thanks to globalism. Not just that but also, multiculturalism allows it to export Western values at a faster speed to the parts of the world they’d have no access to otherwise.

    I’m starting to realize how migrant-exporting countries can also benefit when the West (like what A123 has been saying) immediately impose a near-zero immigration quota on them. But can Blade elaborate on this?

    • Replies: @Blade
  249. @Not Raul

    Lowy Institute is run by Hagannah ‘fighter’ Frank Lowy, and is relentlessly Sinophobic, as you would expect from a propaganda tank run by a Zionist fanatic. One of the lucky financial beneficiaries of 9/11 insurance.

  250. Pharaoh says: • Website
    @Ron Unz

    is Tesla really one of the best examples you can cite of tremendous American success and future dominance? Just a few years ago, wouldn’t many people have exactly said the same thing about Theranos, which was widely hailed for revolutionizing medical testing?

    Comparing Tesla to Theranos? Lol. Get real.

  251. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    We may not disagree as much as it first appears. A great deal of the problem appears to stem from the term “Western”. I using it in the commonly accepted form, “The people living in West”. I suspect you are trying to use it in some other way as a reference to tiny numbers of powerful elites in anti-Western Hollywood and anti-Western Wall Street.

    Guess what happens if even just economic nationalism becomes the international standard rather than liberalism/globalism. Europe can no longer easily sell most of its products to most countries around the world. Globalism argues for a liberal order in which tariffs are eliminated (or low),

    That is the academic theory. However current reality is very different.

    What Globalism actually means is that predatory trade countries (like China) use non-tariff barriers to block U.S. exports. American workers lose their jobs as production is moved overseas. SJW Globalists win while non-SJW Westerners lose.

    Reinstating tariffs as a significant source of revenue would result in more domestic jobs. A win for Western workers and a loss for Globalist MegaCorporations.

    Idiocy globalism spreads isn’t a one side sword, it also harms developing countries, partly because of the other aspect of globalism: multiculturalism. Imported minorities do not only affect Western countries but also their home countries. They are, for the most part, end up becoming agents of the West without realizing it.

    I think we concur on this point. Migrants damaged by anti-Western SJW culture are a threat to both Western culture and their home culture.

    As West and SJW are diametrically opposed concepts, you would be better served by calling them Globalist agents or SJW agents. A Western agent would be a missionary from Utah proselytizing Mormonism.

    You are talking of traditional Christian values. The last Christian died in the last century, what tradition are you speaking of?

    You have bought the Hollywood trope hook, line, & sinker. Christianity is very much alive out in Main Street America. What you see in the fictional Fake Stream Media “news” does not resemble reality.

    Certain churches have serious problems. I do not understand why Catholics tolerate their current anti-Christian Pope. Open Borders leads to religious conflict and potentially Civil War.

    West turning nationalist … would be a boon to challenging powers like Russia, China, and Iran. … Therefore, I think those who call for old-style nationalism do not know what they are wishing for.

    Nationalism would make it much easier for Christian countries to avoid infiltration by Chinese and Iranian agents. The U.S. cannot retrieve stolen Intellectual Property, but it can stop further thefts. Driving anti-Western SJW indoctrination out of U.S. schools is essential.

    Those who call for Christian Populism (e.g. MAGA) know exactly what they will obtain. Jobs and a return to traditional values. An end to other countries exploiting America. The fact that nationalism will work strikes abject fear into the hearts of SJW Globalists.

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Blade
  252. Mayve China IS worried about population.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/27/china-to-limit-abortions-for-non-medical-purposes

    China will reduce the number of abortions performed for “non-medical purposes”, the country’s cabinet announced in new guidelines issued on Monday.

    The state council said action would also be taken to avoid unwanted pregnancies and to encourage men to “share responsibility” in preventing them. Authorities aim to improve sex education and strengthen post-abortion and post-childbirth family planning services, the ruling body added.

    “The basic national policy of gender equality and the principle of giving priority to children need to be implemented in depth,” said Huang Xiaowei, deputy director of the State Council’s National Working Committee on Women and Children.

    Health authorities warned in 2018 that the use of abortion to end unwanted pregnancies was harmful to women’s bodies and risked causing infertility.

    After years of trying to limit population growth, Beijing is pledging policies aimed at encouraging larger families. It said in June it would now allow all couples to have three children instead of two, while policies designed to reduce the financial burden of raising children are also being introduced.

  253. Pericles says:
    @AnonfromTN

    As we usually heard in Sweden back in the day, why doesn’t Astrid Lindgren (immensely popular worldwide) get the Nobel? WHY!?

    The worst award IMO was Bob Dylan (2016), perhaps suitably enough while the Academy was run by its first woman, Sara Danius. What on Earth were they thinking? A couple of years later, the Academy tore itself apart over sex scandals and leaking the winner to betting companies and a lot of women members departed in a huff because a woman was the leak yet it seemed unfair. (Perhaps for the best? one may ask) And a couple of years later we got based Peter Handke (2019).

    From what I’ve heard, there are usually about 200 people on the long list for the Nobel in literature, and out of even those, most will obviously not get it. Even if you get on the short list (10 people or so), your chances are slim.

    Personally, I think Borges is one of the big fish who should have gotten the Nobel, but his political views or associations seem to have been too problematic. A living author with some obvious political problems would be Salman Rushdie. If nothing else, they will have to console themselves with their fame, wealth and influence. It seems Angel Guimerà y Jorge was the most persistently nominated candidate who nevertheless didn’t win.

    Finally, here are some works on how the Swedish Academy operates when awarding the prize.

    https://www.svenskaakademien.se/nobelpriset/nedladdningsbara-bocker-om-nobelpriset-i-litteratur

    https://www.svenskaakademien.se/nobelpriset/nomineringar-och-utlatanden-1901-1950

    In Swedish of course, suck it up.

  254. @Yevardian

    Let me begin by stating that I am not a crypto evangelist and that crypto is a small share of my portfolio. I do not expect private sector cryptocurrencies to displace sovereign currencies, nor would this necessarily be generally desirable. Much of crypto-enthusiasm, aside from the interest in novel technology, simply stems from the same misunderstandings of the nature of money that animates hard money fanatics like the Roanoke Biff buffoon I sparred with earlier in the thread.

    Having said that, I’d like to state why I do not think it’s accurate to state that cryptocurrency has zero intrinsic value. Whether or not Bitcoin specifically has intrinsic value is a narrower question of course. Bitcoin is technologically primitive, but as far as cryptocurrency goes it’s Lindy.

    First, it’s worth considering the history of money. Today gold has a number of industrial applications, but historically it evolved into money before industrial applications for gold existed. Gold was valued for its beauty, scarcity, durability, and the ease with which it could be worked. The non-monetary use of gold was for jewelry and ornamentation, which again stemmed from its beauty. Whether or not cryptocurrency is beautiful may be a matter of perspective, but you have no doubt noted that many people are attracted to it. Properly designed cryptocurrencies also share the scarcity feature of gold. Thus cryptocurrencies thus have certain properties of moneyness.

    Second, “paper” currencies, whether representative (i.e. commodity backed) or fiat, were also created by men. The earliest paper currencies were issued by merchants and banks in order to avoid the cost of transporting bullion. Many were failures and even frauds, but eventually people more or less got it right. Most commodity-backed currencies were issued in amounts greatly exceeding the underlying physical assets that backed them, and eventually successful fiat currencies emerged backed only by law and the habit of not destroying their value through excessive monetary emissions.

    Cryptocurrencies have valuable technological features not present in existing monetary instruments and securities. The distributed ledger, secure cryptographic transmission of payments, and the ability to execute contracts and even full-fledged computer programs are the most notable examples.

    I agree with your prediction that the valuable technological features of cryptocurrencies will eventually be incorporated into sovereign currencies. This, however, does not mean the end of private sector cryptocurrencies anymore than sovereign bonds eliminate the market for corporate securities.

    As noted in a previous reply of mine to Ron Unz, the ultimate development of cryptocurrency technology is to diminish the demand for money itself. Money is after all not valuable for its own sake, but because of the fact that it can be used to purchase real wealth, goods, and services. As all assets ultimately migrate to the blockchain, people will increasingly directly transact without the use of money as an intermediary.

    Sovereign currencies will retain a role in this system as a reserve asset, the payment of taxes, the payment of wages, settling accounts, and the like. Private sector cryptocurrencies (as opposed to non-currency blockchains) will have a role in paying miners, running the decentralized exchanges that most transactions will take place on, black market transactions (a real use even if pooh poohed), evading capital and credit controls, distributed grid computing, and other applications not yet envisioned.

    One possible extremely crucial role for private sector cryptocurrency in the future is as an international reserve asset. I am not stating that this will happen, only that it is a possibility. The present international financial system in which the main reserve asset is controlled by a single sovereign issuer is clearly not sustainable, and there is no guarantee that this power will pass to another sovereign issuer which may in any case not be interested in the role given the Triffin Dilemma. Multilateral reserve currencies (e.g. the SDR) have coordination problems, and gold is expensive to transact and inelastic. Private cryptocurrency may therefore ultimately displace the Dollar as the international reserve asset of choice.

    • Replies: @Rich
    , @Yevardian
  255. @yakushimaru

    The first mover advantage may be overstated (ask the Chinese about gunpowder), but as AK has noted the PRC’s clampdown on crypto means that crypto economic clusters will now not emerge in China.

  256. @Godfree Roberts

    China’s achievements are remarkable, but as usual some of your chosen metrics are dubious.

    98% home ownership is not an achievement. Germany famously has long had a low home ownership rate with no ill effects. A house is a place to live and the fetishization of home ownership is foolish.

    I flatly do not believe that America has hungry children considering the extreme obesity rate. The SNAP program ensures access to food, and almost all communities have food banks. The data showing alleged hunger in America are based on “food insecurity”, which basically means someone found it hard to pay for food at a certain point in time. If anything we could use some hungry children.

    Bringing up executions (one of the core functions of any self-respecting state) and prisoners, of course, is to ignore that America is hamstrung by a large black population. You appear to be some kind of Maoist race denialist, so of course you bring this up. At any rate according to this metric you should be praising all of the soft countries that stopped executing criminals.

    Lastly, to attempt to rebut AK’s point by citing Chinese government budgetary decentralization is to miss the point entirely. What would be more economically centralized–a command economy federation or a market capitalist unitary state?

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @iffen
  257. Rich says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    What’s to stop every country from following China’s move and banning cryptos? If the US and the EU made using cryptos illegal tomorrow, what would happen? Cryptos look like a Ponzi scheme to me, the early investors make a fortune, the later ones less and less, but maybe you’re seeing something I’m not.

    • Replies: @Thorfinnsson
  258. Dmitry says:

    Wuling’s MiniEV is easily ruling EV sales in China with sales over 40000 per month, mainly sold to the Millenials and Generation Z.

    This EV costs only \$4500 new, and can be as cheap as \$2000 after Chinese government incentives, while minimizing the social and ecological costs of automobiles (with its small size and low pollution).

    Maximum speed of 100 kilometres per hour and range of 170 kilometres. Enough space for 4 people. It would be sufficient to transport most workers to their offices.

    If only every car was substituted for this size of mini car (instead we seem to be going in the opposite direction with this fashion for SUVs) – new city planning could be improved by reducing the size of roads and parking spaces.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  259. @Rich

    Somehow I suspect that countries unable to stop COVID, hard drug abuse, “refugee” crises, etc. are going to clamp down on crypto.

    But of course, in principle, there’s nothing to stop any functional state from banning crypto. And given sufficient political will, the ban can be sufficiently enforced.

    But is this likely? I don’t think so. Contrary to what some people think, crypto isn’t some massive threat to the Dollar (or the Euro, Yen, etc.). It does facilitate black market transactions, but provided taxes are still being paid not a major concern. And as some have noted, intelligence agencies themselves may be availing themselves of this feature. And now that cryptocurrencies constitute an asset class owned by major oligarchs and marketed by wealth management firms to clients, there’s a powerful institutional constituency for keeping them in circulation.

    As for calling it a Ponzi scheme, that’s not strictly true in that a Ponzi scheme is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul. There are plenty of scam cryptocurrencies, but ultimately cryptocurrencies are assets rather than promises. That said, they have been termed “Nakamoto Schemes”: https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/

  260. A123 says: • Website

    Here is another illustration of how Globalization places Americans at great risk.

    Truck parts should be made in the U.S. using steel produced by American foundries. Semiconductors can be made in the U.S. National security requires domestic supply of raw materials for industrial consumption.

    There is no other way.

    PEACE 😇

  261. antibeast says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin suffer from their primary characteristic of being decentralized, permissionless blockchains which force them to perform computationally-intensive algorithms to prove their fiduciary authority. Fiat currencies, by contrast, are issued by centralized authorities and backed by the political will and sovereign credit of nation-states. The technical process of turning fiat currencies into CBDCs is relatively simple which would possess all the digital features of cryptocurrencies. The fundamental difference between autonomous cryptocurrencies and CBDCs is primarily ideological which leads to technical differences in their system architecture. For CBDCs, the quantity of currency in circulation is subject to the monetary policy of a centralized authority, namely, the Central Bank which issued the CBDC. But for autonomous cryptocurrencies, no such centralized authority exists except a distributed network of permissionless blockchains capable of performing computationally-intensive algorithms to prove their fiduciary authority which then determines the amount of cryptocurrencies in circulation. This decentralized process of ascertaining authority is extremely inefficient which limits the practical ability of its permissionless blockchains to scale massively in order to function properly as a medium of exchange. This intrinsic drawback of crytocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum explain why their practical use as a medium of exchange is practically non-existent in real-world transactions. Instead, they have become stores-of-value whereby financial speculators bet on their market value which is propped up by illicit funds. But that defeats its utility as a medium of exchange because its market value can fluctuate erratically due to financial speculation.

    In short, cryptocurrencies are not really currencies but anonymous stores to hold ill-gotten wealth which has become their primary function today.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @Dmitry
  262. @Thorfinnsson

    And as some have noted, intelligence agencies themselves may be availing themselves of this feature.

    What are the odds Nakamoto was an NSA team? The last time I talked to folks at my college (admittedly this was several years ago) the math and programming guys almost all considered NSA a top gig and a couple years working there better than any but the best grad school.

  263. @Thorfinnsson

    98% home ownership is significant for two reasons, one of which you may be too young to recall. The US used its high ownership–which reached 69% at one point–to tout ‘democracy’ and, now that the figure has fallen to 66%, is silent about that metric. The numbers of people sleeping rough in every German city does not speak well for Germany’s policy.

    to attempt to rebut AK’s point by citing Chinese government budgetary decentralization is to miss the point entirely. What would be more economically centralized–a command economy federation or a market capitalist unitary state?

    China is not centrally planned but centrally goaled (an affront to our chaotic, Roman monarchical sensibilities) and the goals, which were set 2500 years ago, have been reaffirmed every year since 1951. The short-term goals come from the periphery via regular surveys, and are turned into actionable items which the provinces are then free to pursue as they see fit, since they control their budgets. Some background:

    Mao refined the Confucian process by adding democratic oversight, surveys, and local experimentation on a scale so vast that today the process is an industry in itself. China’s Academy of Social Sciences, CASS, with fifty research centers covering two-hundred sixty social disciplines and four-thousand full-time researchers, now uses questionnaires and grassroots forums to initiate and evaluate all legislation.

    Teams tour the country, appear on TV, hold meetings, listen to local opinions and formulate proposals. Congress commissions scholars to evaluate and economists to budget their recommendations. Says a CASS planner, “Computers have made huge improvements in collecting and analyzing the information. Still, thousands of statisticians, actuaries, database experts and technicians with degrees in urban, rural, agricultural, environmental and economic planning invest thousands of hours interpreting and analyzing this vast trove of data, statistics and information. Needless to say, for a continent-sized country with over a billion citizens, it takes hundreds of thousands of people to develop a Five-Year Plan”.

    The country’s Brains Trust, the State Council, publishes draft Plans and solicits feedback from employees, farmers, business people, entrepreneurs, officials and specialists, and feasibility reports from the twenty-seven levels of bureaucracy responsible for implementation. The Finance and Economics Committee analyzes Plan budgets and, after the State Council signs off and Congress votes. Then discussion is suspended and experimentation and data collection begin. The process resembles Proctor & Gamble more than Pericles of Athens, with solutions to problems test-marketed everywhere, says venture capitalist Robin Daverman:

    “China is a giant trial portfolio with millions of trials everywhere: innovations in everything from healthcare to poverty reduction, education, energy, trade, and transportation are being trialed in different communities. Every one of China’s 662 cities is experimenting: Shanghai with free trade zones, Guizhou with poverty reduction, twenty-three cities with education reforms, Northeastern provinces with SOE reform, pilot schools, pilot cities, pilot hospitals, pilot markets, pilot everything. Mayors and governors, the Primary Investigators, share their ‘lab results’ at the Central Party School and publish them in State-owned media, their ‘scientific journals.’

    “Significant policies usually begin as ‘clinical trials’ in small towns, where they generate test data. If the stats look right, they’ll add test sites and do long-term followups. They test and tweak for 10-30 years, then ask the 3,000-member People’s Congress to review the data and authorize national trials in three provinces. If those trials are successful, the State Council [China’s Brains Trust] polishes the plan and takes it back to Congress for a final vote. It’s very transparent, and if your data is better than mine, your bill gets passed, and mine doesn’t. Congressional votes are nearly unanimous because reams of data back the legislation.

    “This allows China to accomplish a great deal in a short time because your winning solution will be quickly propagated throughout the country. You’ll be a front-page hero, invited to high-level meetings in Beijing and promoted. As you can imagine, the competition to solve problems is intense. Local governments have a great deal of freedom to try their own things as long as the local people support them. Various villages and small towns have tested everything from bare-knuckled liberalism to straight Communism”.

    Thousands of Trial Spots generate immense volumes of data, says author Jeff J. Brown, “My Beijing neighborhood committee and town hall are constantly putting up announcements, inviting groups of people–renters, homeowners, over seventies, women under forty, those with or without medical insurance, retirees–to answer surveys. The CPC is the world’s biggest pollster for a reason: China’s democratic ‘dictatorship of the people’ is highly engaged at the day-to-day, citizen-on-the-street level. I know, because I live in a middle class Chinese community and I question them all the time. I find their government much more responsive and democratic than the dog-and-pony shows back home, and I mean that seriously”.

    • LOL: sher singh
  264. sher singh says:
    @antibeast

    Long boomer post on Proof of Work there’s also Proof of Stake.
    Go binge watch coin bureau vids also, learn about paragraphs.

  265. @Godfree Roberts

    98% home ownership is significant for two reasons, one of which you may be too young to recall. The US used its high ownership–which reached 69% at one point–to tout ‘democracy’ and, now that the figure has fallen to 66%, is silent about that metric. The numbers of people sleeping rough in every German city does not speak well for Germany’s policy.

    I am old enough to recall when reckless promotion of home ownership at all costs detonated the world economy.

    It’s certainly true that home ownership is a staple plank of the so-called American Dream, but the fact that Americans propagandize this does not mean that a high rate of home ownership is desirable.

    It’s a policy choice with tradeoffs, no different than something like farm subsidies or tax policy. Incentivizing a high rate of home ownership may increase housing and retirement security for instance, but this can come at the cost of reduced labor market flexibility. High home ownership can also produce a large gentry class with a vested interest in rising property values, paradoxically rendering housing unaffordable for the young.

    As for vagrancy, in advanced countries this is less an issue of housing affordability/availability than of the social dysfunction which you pointed out plagues America (and many other countries).

    German housing price data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QDER628BIS

    A comparative chart from The Economist:

    Note the relative stability of German housing prices.

    I don’t know the particular laws on this matter in Germany, but in the USA vagrancy laws were rendered unenforceable by SCOTUS almost half a century ago. A large number of the homeless in Germany are also not be Germans at all but Merkel’s invaders. This article is a few years old, but note that half of the homeless in Germany then were so-called refugees: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-150-percent-rise-in-number-of-homeless-since-2014/a-41376766

    As for the remainder of your post, my comment was a thought experiment and not a description of China which is of course not a command economy. For analogies between actual countries you could take, say, the Khruschev-era Soviet Union and compare it to the Spanish State of the same timeframe. The USSR in this timeframe was a federation, and economic planning was also disaggregated from the ministries to the regional republics. Spain, meanwhile, was a unitary capitalist state. Spain had far less “top-down” decision-making for the simple reason that it was a market-oriented economy.

    However, in this particular case, the Chinese government has commanded the end of cryptocurrency within China.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  266. @Godfree Roberts

    the goals, which were set 2500 years ago, have been reaffirmed every year since 1951

    Forget the hundred year plans, forward with the thousand year planning!

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  267. Blade says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    The explanation, in its full scope, would have to be very, very long. I think the effect of diasporas on their origin countries alone is a huge study topic. Then there are the philosophical questions revolving around the topic. The benefit you speak of assumes that it is good to keep national identities as is, and reduce the intermingling of people and minimize cultural exchange/change. In another word, I think you are saying, “I want China to remain Chinese alone and prevent any migration.” Meanwhile, CCP is encouraging Chinese migration into Africa and bringing Africans to China (not on a Western scale, but this is still CCP we are talking about). So, most countries/civilizations that have global aspirations are allowing migration to extend their networks, footprint and reap long-term benefits. Bottom line is, multiculturalism to some degree, is inevitable unless the country is self-sufficient. I didn’t say whether multiculturalism is good or bad, I said from an economic and political perspective it makes sense and it is not all bad for Western nations. In fact, it is a necessity for Western strategic and economic goals (maybe not at Swedish scale, I’d say 1% to 2% of the country’s population would suffice), especially considering their colonialist pasts (colonies used to be much more nationalist and angry).

    But it is still a choice for Western people as well, to say, “I don’t care about having 2-3 cars, large homes, and being able to find and afford whatever I want to consume” and ban immigration completely. The thing is, so few are of that mind, and even among those who think like that, I believe most would immediately drop that position if they realized the economic cost nativism and protectionism would imply on their day-to-day lives.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Triteleia Laxa
  268. @Godfree Roberts

    Have you noticed that since China began cracking down on its oligarchs, and declared that it was seeking to create a more equal society, that the hate-mongering in the West has notched up even more? Could one imagine anything more threatening to the Western bloodsucking elites than a great State based on egalitarian principles. The hatred of blood-suckers like the FoxNews detritus is now utterly unhinged. The local ABC, Sixty Minutes (truly insane!) and SkyNews are absolutely slavering for WAR!!!

    • Agree: tamo
    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  269. @Godfree Roberts

    Meanwhile the Austrayan MSM declares everything in China to be ordered by ‘dictator Xi’, and the Chinese people to be chafing under his dictatorship, dreaming of ‘Freedom’ like Austrayans. The swinish ignorance of the MSM presstitutes, their habitual 100% Groupthink, and their arrogant assertion to speak on behalf of the suffering Chinese masses, is truly preposterous, but uniform and undifferentiated across the entire Groupthinking ‘Free Press’.

    • Agree: tamo
  270. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    The benefit you speak of assumes that it is good to keep national identities as is, and reduce the intermingling of people and minimize cultural exchange/change. In another word, I think you are saying, “I want China to remain Chinese alone and prevent any migration.” Meanwhile, CCP is encouraging Chinese migration into Africa and bringing Africans to China (not on a Western scale, but this is still CCP we are talking about). So, most countries/civilizations that have global aspirations are allowing migration to extend their networks, footprint and reap long-term benefits. Bottom line is, multiculturalism to some degree, is inevitable

    To give credit where credit is due. The CCP has examined prior failures in Africa, determined the root cause of those failures, and has a different plan. CCP hyper colonies in sub-Saharan Africa operate under a staffing philosophy of total replacement. If there are 10,000 mission critical jobs in an African project, they will be filled by 10,000 Han exported from China. There will never be a need to bring Africans to the PRC mainland.

    An obvious analogy is the lengthy economic success of South Africa as an Apartheid nation. Will Han African hyper colonization work? I do not know. But, what they are trying has produced good ROI in the past.

    Looking at the CCP portfolio, there is an over emphasis on “large vessel port projects”. Is this coincidence? Or, is the PLA looking ahead to military logistics? These facilities could easily serve as loss free beach heads to land quantities of tanks, APC’s, and the logistical supply & support to field them effectively.

    PEACE 😇

  271. Blade says:
    @A123

    I using it in the commonly accepted form, “The people living in West”. I suspect you are trying to use it in some other way as a reference to tiny numbers of powerful elites in anti-Western Hollywood and anti-Western Wall Street.

    No, I don’t mean ordinary people. I also don’t mean anti-Western people. I am talking about states, strategies, and politics. So I mean whoever plans those.

    That is the academic theory. However current reality is very different.

    Reality isn’t very different everywhere. That’s why they are reining in on China.

    American workers lose their jobs as production is moved overseas. SJW Globalists win while non-SJW Westerners lose.

    As far as I know, American workers have higher living standards than in the past, by Western measures. Globalists aren’t SJWs, SJWs are just a subgroup that globalists use for their goals.

    Reinstating tariffs as a significant source of revenue would result in more domestic jobs. A win for Western workers and a loss for Globalist MegaCorporations.

    Yes to more domestic jobs, and loss to mega-corporations. But having a higher paying job doesn’t mean a higher life standard if the prices of everything you buy go up more than your salary.

    I think we concur on this point. Migrants damaged by anti-Western SJW culture are a threat to both Western culture and their home culture.

    You call SJWs anti-Western, I don’t see it that way at all. It is the West in your ideal that may be under threat, but the West you have are them in the real world. I agree they are a threat to their home cultures, but I don’t think they are as much a threat to Western cultures. What do you expect? Someone from Somalia or Mexico to suddenly start listening to Mozart and appreciate Picasso as soon as they migrate?

    You have bought the Hollywood trope hook, line, & sinker. Christianity is very much alive out in Main Street America.

    They are conservatives yes, as far as I can see, they claim to believe in Christianity but they are very much seculars. It is like a weekly therapy for most Christians or just some cultural artifact. How many of them live by the values of Jesus? They don’t follow almost any part of their scripture, so how are they Christians?

    Nationalism would make it much easier for Christian countries to avoid infiltration by Chinese and Iranian agents.

    Christian country definition is a bit problematic because no country is Christian, they are all secular countries as far as I know. Yes, if you block immigration you can definitely avoid infiltration, but it cuts both ways you also cannot complain when they reign in on Christians in China, who according to some claims number tens of millions. Side note: Jesus was not a nationalist, he was a universalist.

    Those who call for Christian Populism (e.g. MAGA) know exactly what they will obtain. Jobs and a return to traditional values.

    I didn’t know MAGA was Christian Populism. Jobs yes, but higher prices also yes. Return to what traditional values? I don’t know what you mean by traditional values. As far as I can see, most Republicans aren’t traditionalists to begin with.

    An end to other countries exploiting America.

    Trust me, no country exploits other countries as much as America does. The only ones that could be said to exploit America could be its Western allies, such as European countries without proper armies. I don’t see how China exploits America while it was Chinese workers who were working for a dollar or less per hour for decades, allowing extremely high profits for American businesses.

    • Replies: @A123
  272. Dmitry says:
    @antibeast

    Cryptocurrencies’s market has multiple, undeniable strengths, that could make you optimistic for them.

    It will be something like 99,99% or more of the buyers of the cryptocurrencies, don’t understand any of the field of cryptography in a serious way, while those who understand a little and don’t have productive jobs are often making their own currencies and accessing a money printing machine.

    The important thing is not to understand whether the product has value from any technical perspective, but to predict what will be fashionable or not in the media/cultural sphere, as the investors have no way to assess the product’s real value, Its technical advantages, (not so much) robustness to hacking, etc, are not at all understand by most of the creators. This is the “epistemic opacity” value of an industry, whose investors and even creators do not have much ability to judge the product.

    Followers of the cryptocurrency fashion are mostly amateur, naive, and very loyal investors. For example, I’ve seen they had some faith in one currency because it was being promoted with academically published computer scientists. (Everyone who has been in an investment presentation, knows how often specialists and academics are promoted – it’s no indication of future success or failure of an investment).

    The fact cryptocurrencies are funded to a significant extent by loyal amateur/naive money, is an extremely important advantage.

    As for customer loyalty. People who buy the currency, are encouraged by the internet propaganda to develop a brand loyalty, in which part of their identity and dream of future wealth, merges to the brand of currency they bought.

    Additional advantage is that due to the “Ponzi style structure” of the cryptocurrency (value of the product depends on inserting fresh money into it), the purchasers of the currency are encouraged to “religiously convert” their friends and family to the cryptocurrency. So there is a financial incentive for them to develop product loyalty and behave like a religious cult trying to proselytize for new members. It has some psychological similarity to “crowd funding”, and also how brands like Tesla and Apple have been promoted in the 21st century.

    Another advantage is that it provides a function for amateurs who otherwise cannot access investing, and this investing is psychologically most similar to “sports betting”, “online poker” or “gambling” – it’s providing great pleasure for people who enjoy gambling, and gambling is a vast multihundred billion dollar industry.

    Finally, and yet another advantage of cryptocurrency – it is possibly useful for money laundering.

    Cryptocurrency is therefore in a very strong position to generate profits for its founders. It is based in an area that few of its investors (and many of its creators) understand. It is also including the advantages of “naive customers”, “sports betting”, “money laundering”, “ponzi schemes” and “religious cults”.

    For sceptics who claim that cryptocurrency is “a bubble that will collapse”. It’s possible that nonuseful, nonproductive products like cryptocurrency, might be surprisingly successful.

    Things like “modern art industry/concept art industry”, has not yet collapsed, even after decades of incredible escalation in its value. “Concept art” has two of the advantage of cryptocurrency, in which its technical value and practical use isn’t understood even by its founders, and such kind of art is useful for money laundering.

    Similarly, the betting industry has an eternal popularity and is a vast industry, and religious cults like “Scientology” can continue for generations.

    The danger for cryptocurrency will be in the government regulation. Betting, money laundering and religions, are often regulated by governments. So worry is that governments could intervene to regulate its activities – as they are trying for gambling, money laundering and religious cults. If the government doesn’t intervene, then I will guess that cryptocurrency might continue to be very profitable.

    * There is possibilities danger of instability in introduction of naive nonprofessional investors. Amateur investors for the “Gamestop” were apparently herded on sites like Reddit, that have no security features. (Anyone can use bots to control the upvotes and downvotes in Reddit, and they are too lazy to add security features against it.) Billions of dollars profits were generated for Blackrock and Fidelity Investments. Perhaps the exploitation of this kind of investor, could create an additional instability for the economy. Maybe a pessimist who had understood the implication more than amateurs like myself, could be fearing the destabilizing effects of the exploitation of “subprime investors”? Although this is just an intuition of an amateur observer of such topics.

    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @antibeast
  273. iffen says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    which basically means someone found it hard to pay for food at a certain point in time.

    Yeah, like the stupid cashier said that I only had enough money for the Cheez-its or the MD 20/20. What are you gonna do? You have to take care of the basics, right? Is this America or not?

    • LOL: Thorfinnsson
  274. @Blade

    You seem confused. Migration is not a single thing. Different migrants have radically different effects on different countries. The US gets the best of Asia. This undoubtedly helps their economy. Meanwile yhe UK imported a large number of Mirupuri peasants from Pakistan. This has been detrimental to the economy and very detrimental to the society.

    All of this can be drilled into further, but given that only the top few deciles of earners pay more into tax than gets spent on them, only migrants who end up in the top few deciles are beneficial for the economy. This is clearly not the case for most of them, otherwise they would form an elite economic group, rather than one which is always having to be helped through “systemic racism.”

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Blade
    , @sher singh
  275. @Thorfinnsson

    All good points and food for thought.
    I support widespread home ownership for social stability, if nothing else.
    The Chinese government commanding the end of cryptocurrency within China is what the Chinese expect their governments to do: govern in the best interests of everyone. PRC think tanks have looked at crypto from every angle and decided that the country is better off without it. We will have to wait a while to see how this affects their society, and judge the impact of the e-RMB. But I struggle to understand why or how the ban will negatively affect the bottom 99% of people.

    • Agree: Thorfinnsson
  276. @Daniel Chieh

    Westerners are plunderers, not planners.

    They don’t bother reading the current five-year plan. They don’t realize that there is a 2035 plan and a 2049 plan.

  277. songbird says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    One can construct a tax argument that the state will ultimately embrace eugenics.

    I.e, dysgenics causes the number of taxpayers to drop, while the state intrinsically desires to have more revenue. And smarter people tend to pay more taxes.

    But I am not sure it is faultless logic – a dumb state may not be able to grasp this.

  278. @mulga mumblebrain

    They’ve turned it up to eleven, no doubt.

    Comment sections have been shut down and those that still operate censor readers’ comments relentlessly. Even Amazon reviews are censored. Confucius institutes are closing every week.

    Our elite will do what all elites do: ride the sucker into the ground. It’s smash and grab time, but the media won’t report the crimes.

  279. @Dmitry

    All these can be undone by a single video of a Chinese EV engulfed in a fireball, on Zuccbook. And some import restrictions in the name of “quality control”.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
  280. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    Chinese workers who were working for a dollar or less per hour for decades, allowing extremely high profits for American businesses.

    American businesses? Come on… What you are talking about are anti-American Internationals.

    An American business would benefit American workers. SJW MegaCorporations are an anti-Western blight that intentionally suppresses U.S. workers with DIE [Diversity, Inclusion, Equity] theology. They really want Americans to DIE.

    having a higher paying job doesn’t mean a higher life standard if the prices of everything you buy go up more than your salary.

    Having more U.S. jobs and higher paying U.S. jobs yields increased real disposable income. Reindustrialization will lead to net price reductions versus salary.

    Yes, if you block immigration you can definitely avoid infiltration, but it cuts both ways you also cannot complain when they reign in on Christians in China, who according to some claims number tens of millions.

    The Elite Globalist CCP has used “state churches” to establish a faux soulless SJW non-religion. The number of identified “Christians” is thus highly misleading. With no hope of a Crusade to reestablish real Christianity, that battle is lost to the Globalist CCP for my generation.

    Protecting what we have in the U.S. is therefore the best strategy. Expansion of Christianity is a task left to posterity.

    I didn’t know MAGA was Christian Populism. Jobs yes, but higher prices also yes. Return to what traditional values? I don’t know what you mean by traditional values. As far as I can see, most Republicans aren’t traditionalists to begin with.

    The GOP has a long standing problem with Establishment RINO’s. A low point was reached about 20-30 years ago when NeoConDemocrat infestation gave us GW Bush. A President only the pro-War left could love. Your skepticism of DC swamp Republicans is correct. MAGA is targeting these creatures, such as the despicable Liz Cheney.

    MAGA is clearly rooted in traditional values and Populism. It is not exclusionary Christian, so Judaism and other believers in family and country are able to join in. However, U.S. demographics plus simple math shows that any faith based conservative movement will be predominantly Christian.

    If wages go up 50% and prices go up only 10%, that is a 40% win for U.S. workers. I do not think you grasp the sheer magnitude of devastation and annihilation that decades of low skilled migration has had on U.S. blue collar wages. Reduced migration plus MAGA Reindustrialization is a no-brainer, obvious win for U.S. citizens. Mythical “inflation risk” is an SJW Globalist fabrication and feeble scare tactic.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Blade
  281. https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-climate-change-business-lifestyle-environment-and-nature-f938f477ef5416015120884c0dcf0ece

    They have been grappling with electricuty shortages, but this time (rather than ailing hydroelectricity in Taiwan) the damage is self-inflicted a la Europe.

    Why don’t China bulls realize the CCP is as eager on the climate change agenda as Europe?

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Yellowface Anon
  282. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    The CCP has not bought into Global Warming Mythology. They are doing what is necessary to provide affordable energy to industry: (1)

    China is planning to build 43 new coal-fired power plants and 18 new blast furnaces — equivalent to adding about 1.5% to its current annual emissions — according to a new report. The new projects were announced in the first half of this year despite the world’s largest polluter pledging to bring its emissions to a peak before 2030

    China is leading the world in new coal power plants, building more than three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined in 2020. It isn’t alone in its reliance on coal, however. China and four other countries, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam, account for more than 80% of the coal power stations planned across the world

    Actions speak louder than words. And, building coal plants is quite clear as an action.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.technologytimes.pk/2021/08/20/china-plans-to-build-43-coal-driven-power-plants/

  283. @Yellowface Anon

    Lest you miss the point of the news item here’s the headline I forgot to add:

    China’s power cuts may foreshadow shortages of global goods

  284. @mulga mumblebrain

    uniform and undifferentiated across the entire Groupthinking ‘Free Press’.

    It’s not so much groupthink, or any kind of thinking, for that matter. It’s an illustration of the saying that “he, who pays the musicians, calls the tune”.

  285. It is a philosophical difference.

    In the West, what ever medium or system that can be devised to create currency is valued. It doesn’t matter what it is. It doesn’t matter how it works, or anything like that. Which is why the United States is a nation with a million tiny, tiny hands in your wallet. Everyone takes a cut, all the time, in very small bites. It’s considered a “good thing” because someone is accumulating currency.

    In China, the role of the government is to facilitate a moderate lifestyle along traditional Chinese social constructs. The people must be able to afford reasonable housing, reasonable food, reasonable transportation, and a reasonable way of life. Fundamental to that is a stable medium of exchange; currency that is a function of the labor of society.

    Cryptocurrency is a technique of electronic currency exchange. China has no problem with that.

    What China does have a problem with; is the speculative activities of those who use to use currency as a method of creating more currency.

    This kind of speculation, manipulation, and control of such a fundamental “glue” of society is dangerous and puts control of the finances in the hands of people who do not have the best interests for China. Thus it is banned, and policed.

    It’s very simple, really.

    That’s ok if you don’t like it. You can stick to the “freedom”, and “liberties” of a “free society” and live the “Wild West” roller coaster as mega-oligarchs fight over how to control the downtrodden debt-serfs. It’s your choice. China has shown the way out the door. It’s up to everyone to decide what kind of life they want.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  286. @mulga mumblebrain

    Western oligarchs want their flocks ignorant of greener political pastures, for sure.

    But what’s the end game? As I keep pointing out, there are now more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, more homeless, poor, illiterate, and imprisoned citizens in America than in China.

    What will the media say when China achieves common prosperity (Gini of 28%) in 2035, and the average Chinese median net worth and life expectancy and general QOL surpass the West?

    We are in the Denial stage.

    Next comes Anger–which is why China is preparing for war.

    Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance will be painful, but not fatal..

    • Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  287. @RoatanBill

    I tried to escape but had to return for many different reasons… to bury my ex and take care of our youngest. Didnt want to come back. Loved living overseas away from the American madness but even overseas has it share of craziness. I pray I have the time to pull things together and sell everything before splitting for good. We shall see.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  288. antibeast says:
    @Dmitry

    Whew! That was a long treatise on what essentially is the primary purpose of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin: MONEY LAUNDERING. And that in a nutshell is what makes Bitcoin so attractive: every Tom, Dick and Harry who does Bitcoin mining is involved in MONEY LAUNDERING. The fact that Bitcoin was designed to be PERMISSIONLESS (‘Hello Everyone!”), DECENTRALIZED (“Hello World!”) and thus ANONYMOUS (“We Miners are now the Bankers of the World!”) gives Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) all the essential characteristics for hiding ill-gotten wealth in digital form which can be transported surreptitiously across national borders, thereby bypassing the highly-regulated banking/financial industry.

    You’re right that Bitcoin mining started out as a hobbyist industry involving geeks who had nothing better to do than try out Bitcoin mining for fun. But illicit funds started flowing to Bitcoin when its utility was proven to be effective in circumventing FX controls which is exactly what happened in China. So you now have a global network of Bitcoin miners effectively running a digital MONEY LAUNDERING network which has attracted institutional investors wishing to cash in on the Bitcoin craze.

    Contrary to popular misconceptions, Bitcoin is ineffective as a medium of exchange, given its computational demands as well as its unstable value. That’s why another class of cryptocurrencies — stablecoins — were invented to assign a fixed value to a cryptocurrency token. But that’s outright fraud because those stablecoins are not backed by cash reserves representing their market value, illegally misrepresenting fiat currencies without the legal authorization to do so.

    Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) have all the negative attributes of vice industries such as gambling, drugs, etc. My expectation is that sovereign nation-states would have to regulate if not outright ban the cryptocurrency industry to protect their societies and peoples from its harmful effects.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Dmitry
  289. @antibeast

    Every transfer and use of money governments don’t want to see is “money laundering”.

    Earning wages in physical money/currencies when CBDCs are mandatory, and spending them will also be “money laundering”, too.

  290. Yevardian says:
    @Thorfinnsson

    Thank you for giving a seriously considered defence of crypto in good faith, and not a load of pompous unverifiable guff, like example, comment 40 here.

    Whether or not cryptocurrency is beautiful may be a matter of perspective, but you have no doubt noted that many people are attracted to it. Properly designed cryptocurrencies also share the scarcity feature of gold. Thus cryptocurrencies thus have certain properties of moneyness.

    But as our benevolant overlord has mentioned earlier, it appears that this ‘attraction’ almost certainly derives from the sudden, meteoric rise in the nominal value of these ‘coins’, alongside their extreme volatility, which essentially throws in the allures of gambling as well.
    Of course, everyone dreams about getting rich quick with minimal effort, and the narrative of people who bought crypto ‘early’ seems to have convinced many that if they too, get comparatively ‘early’ now relative to some undefined future, they can also strike it rich without effort.

    Properly designed cryptocurrencies also share the scarcity feature of gold. Thus cryptocurrencies thus have certain properties of moneyness.

    Yet there are also several dozen competing ‘cryptocurrencies’ being aggressively traded at any one time. Can they seriously be argued to hold ‘scarcity value’ in such conditions? I don’t know the difference between the various competitors (frankly, I don’t have enough interest to research this myself), but how different in technology from each other can they be?
    From my disinterested observers perspective, I’ve only noticed various examples of this vaunted ‘free speech money’ variously branded under the auspices of ‘DogeCoin’ (which only heard of due to the speculative hit-and-run in it of your that all-American Hero, Elon Musk), ‘Asscoin’, and my personal favourite, ‘Hitlercoin’, complete with 1488 ‘tokens’, iirc.

    The earliest paper currencies were issued by merchants and banks in order to avoid the cost of transporting bullion.

    This is going off-topic, but the archaeological evidence suggests that it’s almost a certainty that the first issued ‘money’ (defined as tokens or notes that are valueless in themselves) came from top-down government initiatives, not private individuals (a favourite hypothesis of Austrian economics proponents and similar such scumbags). Michael Hudson, Baruch Levine and Karl Polanyi write well about this, if you’re interested.

    Most commodity-backed currencies were issued in amounts greatly exceeding the underlying physical assets that backed them, and eventually successful fiat currencies emerged backed only by law and the habit of not destroying their value through excessive monetary emissions.

    Sure, but doesn’t this precisely illustrate why governments around the world would react to crytocurrencies with extreme prejudice if people began taking them at all seriously as a means of transaction?
    China’s government is both competent and takes itself seriously (qualities which neither Russia or the US possess both of), which would perfectly explain why it’s the first country to seriously crackdown on ‘cryptocurrencies’.

    I agree with your prediction that the valuable technological features of cryptocurrencies will eventually be incorporated into sovereign currencies. This, however, does not mean the end of private sector cryptocurrencies anymore than sovereign bonds eliminate the market for corporate securities.

    The latter seem much amenable to government oversight and control that cryptocurrencies (of which it appears can be created by anyone with the necessary tech know-how) though, don’t you think? Again, I don’t know much about the topic, so maybe you can tell me (and other skeptics here) something I’m not aware of.

    Private sector cryptocurrencies (as opposed to non-currency blockchains) will have a role in paying miners, running the decentralized exchanges that most transactions will take place on, black market transactions (a real use even if pooh poohed), evading capital and credit controls, distributed grid computing, and other applications not yet envisioned.

    All of these uses look like net-negatives to society for me, with the exception of the last, but I know nothing about IT myself, perhaps our benevolent overlord could chip in on it.

    Private cryptocurrency may therefore ultimately displace the Dollar as the international reserve asset of choice.

    Possibly, supposing that that that these cryptocurrencies truly are state-neutral. But something, call it hunch, makes me suspect they’re somehow integrated into and serve the current American ‘bullshit economy’ in some way. Comments regarding intelligence agencies (in this context, I can’t see anyone outside of the Mossad/CIA, and their underlings, using crypto) don’t exactly fill me with confidence either.
    Of course, I could be totally wrong..

  291. @Yevardian

    Possibly, supposing that that that these cryptocurrencies truly are state-neutral. But something, call it hunch, makes me suspect they’re somehow integrated into and serve the current American ‘bullshit economy’ in some way.

    What bullshit?

  292. I agree with the general spirit, but I’m rather skeptical re. details.
    We simply cannot predict the future, even a few decades.

    My old example is 1900 and 1930- in 1930, you got tanks, quantum mechanics, relativity, air-planes, telephone, radio, high modernism in arts, wider approach of psychoanalysis, film, cars, fascism, communism, modern concentration camps, …

    Nobody could have predicted that.

  293. LondonBob says:
    @Yevardian

    I can imagine cryptocurrencies are useful for intelligence agencies as they are for their often partners in organised crime.

    Bitcoin heading down to 18k to 20k as the speculative bubble across assets deflate.

  294. LondonBob says:

    The US is able to compete with China on raw GDP so the hope is that they can retain an edge on cutting edge technology, I don’t see that happening either.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  295. @LondonBob

    The raw GDP of both (or any “developed” country) are likely inflated.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  296. @Godfree Roberts

    Are you a bot? If so, the Chinese aren’t doing great with AI.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  297. @InnerCynic

    At least you realize that you have options and they’re better than the US.

    Most think that any place else is, well, unthinkable. They build their own prison because the rest of the world is off limits to them. They chant USA, USA, USA at some mind numbing ball game, venerate the US flag, say thank you for your service and back the blue and bend over for the tax man and every stupid law without ever saying NO. The Fed Gov initiates all the problems but the people cement them in place through their willingness to submit.

    Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did, and it never will. Find out just what people will submit to, and you have found out the exact amount of injustice and wrong, which will be imposed upon them; and these will continue until they are resisted with either rods or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.
    Frederick Douglass

    Rights aren’t rights if someone can take them away. They’re privileges. That’s all we’ve ever had in this country, is a bill of temporary privileges. And if you read the news even badly, you know that every year the list gets shorter and shorter. Sooner or later, the people in this country are gonna realize the government … doesn’t care about you, or your children, or your rights, or your welfare or your safety… It’s interested in its own power. That’s the only thing. Keeping it and expanding it wherever possible.
    George Carlin

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  298. @RoatanBill

    You can run, but you can’t hide from whoever pushes their agendas thru the UN.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
    , @A123
  299. @Yellowface Anon

    You are correct.

    However, the capabilities of the ruling regime where one domiciles has a lot to do with how one is treated. Many gov’ts wish they could be as intrusive and nasty as the US Fed Gov, state govt’s, municipal govt’s, city govt’s, but they simply lack the resources. It is the limitations that the local environment imposes that limits their effectiveness as totalitarian masters.

    For example, I haven’t had vehicle insurance, medical insurance, home insurance for 16 years saving a considerable amount, because they aren’t mandatory. I can purchase anything I want at the local pharmacy because almost everything is over the counter and as cheap as dirt. I haven’t had a traffic ticket since leaving Texas because the local cops don’t have radar guns and there are no stop signs or traffic lights. There are speed limits that no one pays any attention to including the cops. My taxes amount to what I routinely keep in my wallet. I see a cop about once a month and have occasion to interact with the gov’t once a year for routine paperwork.

    The US is what every nation yearns to be toward its captives known as citizens. Reality intercedes for the benefit of the individual if you pick carefully.

  300. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    You can run, but you can’t hide from whoever pushes their agendas thru the UN.

    Why would anyone run or hide from the UN?

    Pointing and laughing is a more typical reaction. Every UNGA resolution is a symbol of total incompetence and utter failure.

    PEACE 😇

  301. @RoatanBill

    MX isn’t perfect and it’s not what you are used to. But you do get used to it. And it’s a lot is more civilized than the US.

    There is a bureaucracy, but it leaves you alone. For example, if you fall behind in your property taxes the government will not seize the property or attach liens— ever. They wait until it changes hands to take their cut.

    Crossing the border is a good illustration: Crossing into the US is always unpleasant; US nationals are treated like slaves and usually subjected to an inquisition. Crossing into MX , even as a foreigner, is nothing like that; it’s always pleasant.

    Unlike the US, Mexico’s border is not open to the trash of the world. You will be allowed legal residence only if you are able to contribute to Mexican society.

  302. @Godfree Roberts

    The Party has a hundred year plan, which consists of vague guidelines, because whatever their flaws, they consist mostly of relatively sane people. There is obviously no thousand-year plan – they realize that they have no way of predicting the future; and no, utopia or datong is not a plan.

    I actually took the effort to look up what China was doing in 1021, just for you. Looks like the Song dynasty was still going pretty strong. They had some interesting ideas, possibly even socialism(I need to check the exact date), but the idea that they had plans involving getting crushed by the Jurchens and later the Mongols is pretty ridiculous.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  303. LondonBob says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Of course I meant to type unable.

  304. Recently, I had a Honduran national remark that he and his friends toured Europe and only saw significant numbers of face diapers in Spain along with incessant interruptions in their travels to check on covid papers. I suspect they’re all in the drug trade because they have loads of money and have no visible income. I know them all and they’re very nice people. He got vaxed in Honduras but some of his friends were unvaxed, so a Spanish local told them how to get Spanish vax passports that will satisfy the jerk cops in Spain as well as many other places.

    All one does is present a vaxed person at a certified facility to get tested for being vaxed or not. When the test comes back as vaxed, a Spanish certificate is sent via email to the persons phone. The trick was to provide an unvaxed persons email address. Anyone checking doesn’t take the necessary time to look for any inconsistencies, so it effectively works.

    Those countries that are determined to impose ridiculous measures that are nothing more than harassment will eventually feel the sting of reduced tourism and income. My friend said they’ll omit Spain from their next months long touring.

  305. mal says:

    Well, while EU is of course in headlines with their energy crisis (launch the Nord Stream 2, silly people), Chinese have their own power and electricity problems now.

    Where this gets interesting is the entire “renewable energy” industry is powered by Chinese coal (the only reason it got cheap and competitive), and Chinese coal is not longer cheap, so this feeds into things like silicon metal prices, and a whole range of other energy intensive industrial materials required by Green energy manufacturers.

    And no, the only way you can power a silicon metal refinery with solar panels is if you build it on the surface of the Sun – those arc discharge reactors run at something like 2000 degrees Celsius and consume vast amounts of electricity.

    Same applies for other industrial materials – those windmills are huge and batteries likewise require lots of energy intensive processing.

    Basically, if Chinese can’t make it, the whole “energy transition” narrative becomes rather questionable. Exciting times.

    Also goes to show that there are only three real countries in the world – Americans with fracking, French with nukes, and Russians with oil. Everybody else either doesn’t have the industrial base or energy supply, and can be ended with a flip of a switch.

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @A123
    , @Mitleser
  306. Dmitry says:
    @Yevardian

    volatility

    Everyone knows that decentralized cryptocurrency cannot be used as currency, because it is volatile (unless you believe that currency of Zimbabwe provides effective conditions for business transactions).

    At the same time, everyone knows, cryptocurrency is popular and pleasurable for gambling, because it is volatile.

    Notice this is ideological conversion of a controversial product, to a noncontroversial product – is (one of very many) advantages in the “cryptocurrency market”, rather than a disadvantage.

    So, of course it reminds us of Freud’s theory of the censorship in dreams. For Freud, the guardianship of sleep was the ability of the dream to convert forbidden pleasure into socially acceptable content.

    Here is the guardianship of your “investor’s” conscience, that enables them to indulge in pleasure without its interference – market your product as a currency.

    different in technology

    It’s just variations on the same idea, which is a simple and open source. The reason for so many variations is less because of technical needs or innovative progress, than because of the advantage of being in a position of the founder of the currency – access to a money printing machine.

    Founders of the currency write this simple software, and then allocate a share of the ownership of the currency to themselves, then release it open source.

    Then they wait for people to exchange real money for their own tokens, and everyone who buys a token becomes self-interested in promoting it, in order to carry in more fresh real money, and increase the value of this new token.

    In this way it builds value like “self-perpetuating, decentralized Madoff machine”. Technically, there is nothing very interesting, but psychologically and legally it on very clever exploits.

    For example, Madoff was needing to constantly contravene the law, and lie to people in order to receive fresh money.

    But the founder of the cryptocurrency has only released an open source software, and can allow others to promote and refine it, while the portion of the currency they can allocated to themselves is being exchanged for real money.

    So it is far much more legally clean and your responsibility is more more spread, than in the traditional Ponzi system which requires often contravening of law.

    One legal problem which has been broken perhaps, is in a promotion of this product as “currency”. In this sense, it seems like it could be legally problematic as a misleading packaging of a particular investment product. But perhaps lawyers will eventually be arguing about this. Moreover, they are increasingly described as “cryptoassets”

    In terms of current situation, the cryptocurrency market seems to be very clever from this perspective using multiple legal and psychological exploits.

    Ponzi schemes usually develop like a religious cult, which can be a hint for psychology that the growth of religions themselves are not using always exploiting “noble, spiritual” instincts, as religious apologists can present. They have their own momentum. So decentralized Ponzi is another very strong advantage.

    exactly fill me with confidence either.
    Of course, I could be totally wrong..

    Well look at the art market, particularly for conceptual art.

    There is no “bubble bursting”, even as the values inflate to hundreds of millions of dollars for works of concept art. Modern concept art, provides a service as an esoteric store of value, and mechanism for money laundering. It also has some feature of Ponzi schemes (except among very economically and socially sophisticated people, who know exactly how it works).

    But the modern art, and especially concept art market, world is managing to avoid risks from regulation. As long as the investors do not panic and leave, then the concept art world seems to be financially successful indefinitely.

    In addition for money laundering, cryptocurrencies provide a gambling service. Gambling is a multi-hundred billion dollar industry, and cryptocurrencies only need to attain a small market share of the gambling industry, in order to probably self-fund themselves indefinitely.

    People will continue to feed more money into the cryptocurrencies, and in return they experience a real pleasurable service just from the casino aspects of it.

    Obvious risks for cryptocurrency industry, will be the possibility of government or legal intervention.

    I could guess maybe another possible risk is the type of money it exploits (naive amateur investors), and the cultural effects. In comparison to the similar market of concept art – has far more barriers to entry, and as a result attracts sophisticated, elite people.

    Therefore the culture surrounding modern art, becomes very elite and knowledgeable, and connected to government institutions, and so on. This high level of education and sophistication, provide a kind of political and legal roof for the modern art industry.

    Whereas the culture of the cryptocurrency was originally quite middle class (the founder was likely in a university course for cryptography), but since around 8 years ago becoming like a Pachinko parlor, and I guess this will result in less high level roofs for the industry – even though its founders can have hundreds of millions of dollars from their own allocations.

    This is just intuition as an amateur observer without having read any books about this topic, so don’t consider my views anything authoritative of knowledgeable.

    • Replies: @utu
  307. A123 says: • Website
    @mal

    Where this gets interesting is the entire “renewable energy” industry is powered by Chinese coal (the only reason it got cheap and competitive), and Chinese coal is not longer cheap

    One minor clarification.

    Australian coal is cheap and that set the benchmark for coal prices in China. When the CCP stops picking a fight with Australia, coal prices will head downwards. It is only a matter of time. China’s huge and growing appetite for coal means that the current kerfuffle will eventually be overcome.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @mal
  308. utu says:
    @Dmitry

    “market your product as a currency” which it is not. Great insights, Dmitri.

  309. Dmitry says:
    @antibeast

    Although note that money laundering is not the only practical use of the decentralized cryptocurrency – it also provides very financially successful service of gambling, (not very secure) store of value, Ponzi, as well as some ideological/religious services.

    These are all vast multi-hundred billion dollar industries, and cryptocurrencies only need a small market portion of their market share. For example, Pachinko in Japan (which Bitcoin was partly inspired by) earns \$200 billion per year.

    Cryptocurrency has such “hybrid vigour”. It also has legal and psychological exploits which allow the introduction of new customers (or expanding market share) – so that people who not normally go to the casino or the Pachinko parlor, might have less opposition from their conscience to play cryptocurrency.

    It’s a kind of hybrid product, so consumers can still say to their conscience they are not experiencing the ancient and irresistible pleasures of gambling, while experiencing exactly those pleasures.

    sovereign nation-states would have to regulate if not outright ban the cryptocurrency industry

    There might be some stricter regulation eventually, and this is one of the risks for the cryptocurrency market. But people were saying this already for many years, and it still hasn’t arrived. Regulation of new industries (even when it is just a hybrid of previously regulated industries) is very slow, and in intervening years people can create a lot of money for themselves. This is especially slowed arrival of regulation when it has the appearance of new technology or “Silicon valley”, partly because both federal and local governments are currently trying to promote the development of “tech scene”.

    As positive social sideeffect of this market, it also allows some testing of certain features which will be used in the future in real (government released) digital currencies.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  310. mal says:
    @A123

    I dont think Chinese are having a problem with coal as such – they have lots of it, physically. But they are trying to get away from burning it for pollution reasons, and that’s the cause of the problem.

    If your solution is Australian coal, you might as well open up Chinese producers, but again, neither option is desirable so it’s not actively pursued which leads to high prices when it’s crunch time and you have no other choice. I don’t think Australian coal burns much cleaner vs Chinese, no? At least, clean enough to be acceptable under current permit and regulations?

    • Replies: @A123
  311. Blade says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Seeming confused is a possibility, then it is also possible you are just picking one thing you imagine that I don’t know and trying to build an argument on that. This is just a comment section, I am not writing books here. Oh, and the US also received millions of peasants from Vietnam, China, Korea, Cambodia, and other countries. I doubt these people were the best of Asia. Furthermore, the original migrants to the US were the “worst” of Europe as well. Also, I am just presenting opinions on why the Western political bodies introduced globalism and multiculturalism. I am not saying whether I support them or not. So if you have better explanations, go on and share them. Alternative explanations I’ve seen so far range from “because Jews want to destroy Europeans” and “because Western elites hate us.” Neither of which makes sense or has any proof.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  312. Blade says:
    @A123

    What you are talking about are anti-American Internationals.

    So how can they be openly nationalist and expect to do business in foreign countries? What sort of anti-American activities are they involved in? Is Toyota anti-Japanese for having factories in the US as well?

    An American business would benefit American workers.

    Alright, so you are a pro-worker, maybe even a socialist. I was going to say you cannot be a free-market capitalist and also not support globalism and migration. But it seems you are not since you believe businesses have nationalities and have an obligation to benefit a select group of nations. That’s OK to believe, but not a free market idea at all.

    SJW MegaCorporations are an anti-Western blight that intentionally suppresses U.S. workers with DIE [Diversity, Inclusion, Equity] theology

    I agree that DIE is part of wage suppression, but how are they anti-Western? And why? Aren’t they Western themselves? Do you rather keep women, gays, minorities unemployed so you can have even more social unrest?

    They really want Americans to DIE.

    Whether they want it or not, everyone will die anyway. Why do you think they want Americans to die?

    Having more U.S. jobs and higher paying U.S. jobs yields increased real disposable income. Reindustrialization will lead to net price reductions versus salary.

    Industries are far more automated than 40 or even 20 years ago. Look at Tesla’s gigafactory and tell me how many workers they have. A lot of the industries that require more manual labor that Western companies outsourced to Bangladesh or China would not be profitable in the US with current prices. There will be no reindustrialization.

    If wages go up 50% and prices go up only 10%, that is a 40% win for U.S. workers

    But as far as I know, it is Democrats who want to increase the minimum wage and it is Republicans who fight against it. Republicans argue that if minimum wage goes up so does business cost and the net result is increased inflation and more unemployment. I also don’t think a 50% increase in wages would only cause a 10% increase in prices.

    I do not think you grasp the sheer magnitude of devastation and annihilation that decades of low skilled migration has had on U.S. blue collar wages.

    Yes, though I don’t fully agree, I am aware that’s part of the wage suppression scheme. But I think more of the damage is caused by poor management and greed. Just look at Germany. They also have millions of low-skilled migrants, but their industries and blue collars doing very well.

    Reduced migration plus MAGA Reindustrialization is a no-brainer, obvious win for U.S. citizens.

    They are already working on reducing migration, the governments I mean. If they really wanted to destroy Western nations they would not build walls and migrant facilities, in Europe, they would not threaten Turkey to force it to keep millions of migrants and just let them come in. But there will be no reindustrialization with or without MAGA.

    • Replies: @A123
  313. sher singh says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Racism intersects with class though, so that a white working classmen is more likely to hit foreman.
    A white PHD more likely to get tenure. Will a S Asian PHD ‘live’ better than the Foreman?

    Income-wise certainly, but we compare social prestige with our peers, and here race matters.
    Britain will be mostly white for 50+ years at least.. You don’t need to shill mid-class values so hard..

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  314. A123 says: • Website
    @mal

    Australian coal is highly desirable for coking in the steel production cycle. On the power side, Australian coal can be pulled out of the ground so cheaply that even with the added cost of transport it still set the low price benchmark in China.

    If the CCP wants to accept modestly higher coal prices as a trade off for national security, then domestic production for electricity makes a certain amount of sense. Realistically buying at least some coking coal from Australia seems inevitable.

    The point is that China is expanding its national coal consumption. It is also trying to simultaneously deal with particulate air pollution in places like Beijing. So you will hear about smaller older plants closing while large new ones come online.

    The CCP does not actually believe in “Green Power”. It is highly situational, such as small electric cars in high density, pollution prone cities.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  315. @Thorfinnsson

    Yeah for some reason when it comes to cryptocurrency – especially bitcoin – is that people don’t realize the price appreciation is because of the high risk involved. Some will get “rich” – but many will be made to cry. We have seen this all before.

    • Replies: @A123
  316. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    To go point by point would be exceedingly long. I think I can address most of your points in a more condensed form.

    The statutory minimum wage is about:
        • Maximizing off the books payments to increase illegals.
        • Pushing citizens onto the dole where they are more easily controlled.

    DIE is about suppression of reporting illegals. Unusual languages and ethnicities are cherished, not just protected. The slightest non-conformity to the mandatory embrace of diversity is punishable. DIE = FEAR.

    Anti-Western companies use the minimum wage and DIE to suppress U.S. workers.
    ___

    The top four companies using H1B visas are InfoSys, WiPro, Satyam, and Tata. They are all anti-Western. Their primary purpose is to hurt American workers by moving jobs overseas.

    Between 50-80% of German migrants are unemployed (1). You are badly misinformed if you believe that Germany is successfully handling blue collar migrant employment.
    ____

    I used to believe in free markets when I was younger and much more naive. I now grasp the inescapable truth — All Markets are Managed. Any country that does not aggressively manage trade for its citizens is going to lose, badly. Has unilateral disarmament ever worked?

    MAGA Reindustrialization is not going back to the 1960’s. No doubt the jobs will be very different. However, in the real world, making things that add value is good for both workers and the economy. The alternative is trade deficit importing for give-aways to citizens on the dole. There is no long term stability in that type of solution.

    Jobs & Schools are interrelated. Letting a child graduate from a Baltimore HS with a below “D” average should be horrible because they will never be employable. However, anti-Western companies have so devalued jobs, this out come is acceptable. There are so few jobs that the outcome is the same for below “C” marks. Socialism failed for obvious reasons, but abandoning kids in the name of Free Markets & Anti-Western MegaCorporations is just as destructive.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.jihadwatch.org/2020/08/germany-53-of-employable-muslim-migrants-get-unemployment-benefits-including-70-of-syrian-migrants

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    , @Blade
  317. @Adept

    You are correct in all you noted (and a new freight train express line just opened this month from Shanghai to Hamburg, Germany)…. And that is the reason the US is recruiting Australia to expand it’s fleet. Those subs will be Australian in name and accent only. They will be controlled by the US – just the same way that except for one customer – all F35’s send data back to the US and the US has control over their systems ultimately. Of course the US already had Japan under the wing to try to fight China – and they hope they can recruit India too… But they only trust other Anglos to give nuclear subs. Basically they are trying the same strategy with NATO against Russia…. But plans don’t always work. If they forecast 8 subs – the more likely will be 4 once cost overruns and construction delays happen.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  318. A123 says: • Website
    @showmethereal

    price appreciation is because of the high risk involved. Some will get “rich” – but many will be made to cry. We have seen this all before.

    (humor)

    [∆] — I have ENRONcoins
    Coins will come good some day
    Easy street forever

    [∆] From the book of Texaku (Texas Hiaku)

    (/humor)

    PEACE 😇

  319. @Dmitry

    Aerospace – even if a company is loss making or barely profitable – supports a very long supply chain. A lot of that is technologically advanced. Aerospace is about more than just simple profits of one company. In the same way small nations will subsidize national airlines to bring more international passengers in – because of the trickle down on the overall economy.

    • Agree: mal
    • Replies: @A123
  320. A123 says: • Website
    @showmethereal

    While not as dramatic, supply chain is a huge driver in auto and property.

    The U.S. could not let one of the Big 3 go down because it would have wrecked everyone’s supply chain.

    The CCP will not let Evergrande go down because that would devastate those supply chains. Everyone seems to concur about the the marching orders from the CCP even though little had turned up in writing. Paying physical goods vendors and completing physical projects are the top of the list even though contract based seniority does not read that way.

    State Owned Enterprises [SOE] are going to be a big part of the solution (1). After the supply chains are guaranteed — Internally decisions will be made on political connectedness and need. Externally, one would guess it will be the minimum to maintain market access. Feel free to make your own dart board throw, mine says 20% Senior & 10% Junior for recovery.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/avoid-messy-collapse-beijing-prods-soes-buy-evergrande-assets-including-worlds-largest

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  321. Mitleser says:
    @mal

    In that sense, China is a real country too.

    Apparently, there was too much enforced regulation which reduced coal production at a time of increased demand.

    In China, 90% of coal consumed comes from domestic coal producers. However, it is difficult to realize substantial growth in coal output to meet surging demand.

    Several market observers believe the slow supply response partly reflects stepped-up regulatory efforts to crack down on the illegal “overproduction,” or production exceeding specified limits.

    For safety reasons, mines’ legally-approved capacity generally falls below actual capacity. In the past, coal production exceeding approved levels has been common. From 2020, the coal-rich Inner Inner Mongolia autonomous region (Hohhot) launched a campaign against coal-related corruption. In May 2020, Inner Mongolia implemented a strict policy requiring mines to produce within approved limits. The policy had a big impact on illegal “off-balance-sheet capacity,” which in turn pushed down output in major coal-producing areas. In 2021, strict enforcement of capacity limits spread to other major coal-producing areas.

    Another factor limiting production: the crackdown by safety and environmental protection authorities. For example, from the end of May to the beginning of June 2021, three coal mining accidents occurred in Henan. As a result, many coal mines were shut down for rectification. Under normal circumstances, these coal mines contribute about 20 million tons of production.

    Moreover, to achieve mandated targets for peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, local governments have tightened regulations on high energy-consuming industries, which has also has hurt production of upstream coal. The Inner Mongolian city of Ordos is home to many high energy-consuming industries. According to local coal traders, coal mines in the city implemented power rationing measures at night in August.

    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-09-29/analysis-severe-coal-supply-demand-imbalance-challenges-winter-supply-101781337.html

    • Replies: @mal
  322. @Unit472

    The stupidest, most pig ignorant and racist Sinophobe tropes, all gathered together. Does it make you feel better to delude yourself, White Boy?

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  323. @Godfree Roberts

    I’m not so hopeful. One aspect of the Rightwing Authoritarian Personality, as seen in Austfailian politics, MSM and business, is intractable xenophobia, the hatred of the other. It is very virulently manifested in race hatred, and in Sinophobia in particular. Ten years or so of increasingly virulent Sinophobic hate-mongering by the MSM in Austfailia has led to a populace where a large majority hate and fear China and are slavering for a war that would destroy the country, one way or another. Austfailians are, generally, stupid and ignorant and immensely self-satisfied, and easily manipulated-lemmingtons, racing for the cliff’s edge. The current PM, bunyip Bolsonaro Morrison, a Pentecostal thug, intends running the next election campaign as an orgy of racist and war frenzy against China, with the intention of painting Labor as ‘soft on the Yellow Peril’. Right back to 1966.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  324. mal says:
    @Mitleser

    Yeah, but thats kinda goes back to the point I made back in the space thread (American gas burners and nuclear spaceships) about Bezos’ vision about heavy industry being forced off planet.

    Yes, Chinese have the coal. But Chinese housewives are getting richer and they don’t want to live next to coal mines or coal fired plants, and you can’t really blame them. So what to do?

    You can’t permit coal mines and plants in normal times because housewives will protest but if you don’t, you won’t have power during emergencies like now.

    For the Chinese, it’s going to be a fine line between opening yourself to a color revolution by disgruntled housewives on one hand and maintaining a coherent industrial policy that any major power requires on the other hand.

    How well the Chinese will be able to walk this fine line, I guess we will see. I’m not an expert on Chinese domestic politics, so maybe they will be able to maintain cohesion. But if not, it’s back to the Opium Wars for them.

    The problem isn’t that there’s no coal, or even that it’s expensive in terms of money (we can always print that). The problem is that coal is politically expensive, which is a lot worse.

  325. @Triteleia Laxa

    Did I make a statement or claim that is false or misleading?
    Or are you unaccustomed to unbiased information?

  326. @Daniel Chieh

    In 1021, having completed their nationwide implementation of paper currency backed by fractional reserves of specie, the Emperor asked his officials why they could not do away with specie altogether, and transition to a pure fiat currency. After considerable debate, the idea was shelved for political and geopolitical reasons.

    Today, having made the switch to fiat currency, officials are in dialog with the Emperor about doing away with paper.

    History may not repeat itself but, occasionally, it rhymes.

  327. @A123

    Evergrande has \$305 Bn in liabilities and \$335 Bn in assets (including a potential Tesla-beating car company).

    It’s basically a good workout prospect for patient capital, of which China has an abundance.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  328. @A123

    The way I see it, China would prefer Australian coal if Australia stopped being such a US vassal. It is way more geopolitical than you think

  329. @Godfree Roberts

    That EV company hasn’t produced even a prototype, just 3D artist’s impressions.

  330. @A123

    The statutory minimum wage is about:
    • Maximizing off the books payments to increase illegals.
    • Pushing citizens onto the dole where they are more easily controlled.

    You are seeing the symptoms of low-pay jobs being priced out.

    DIE is about suppression of reporting illegals. Unusual languages and ethnicities are cherished, not just protected. The slightest non-conformity to the mandatory embrace of diversity is punishable.

    It can be used like that, but the “ideological” part will always be greater.

    The top four companies using H1B visas are InfoSys, WiPro, Satyam, and Tata. They are all anti-Western.

    All of them Indian. Can you see who’s the real threat to the world and the US?

    Between 50-80% of German migrants are unemployed (1). You are badly misinformed if you believe that Germany is successfully handling blue collar migrant employment.

    Germany thought they can integrate (not assimilate) those migrants like the Turks back in the 70s-80s. It obviously has failed.

    My suggestion for you would be adopting adopting a less belligerent rhetoric without compromising your basic principles.

  331. Dmitry says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    Munro Associates believes that the Chinese EVs will be competitive in the next years, and he says they might be “quite nice”.

    Look at 8:30 in the video. I guess it might just be an idiosyncratic opinion though – he sounds like he is exaggerating or angry about American companies. But still it is one expert opinion at least and this one is optimistic about the Chinese EVs.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  332. Blade says:
    @A123

    DIE is about suppression of reporting illegals.

    Corporations are hiring illegal migrants? I thought it was generally low-wage, low education jobs. Like farming, manual labor, and so on.

    The top four companies using H1B visas are InfoSys, WiPro, Satyam, and Tata. They are all anti-Western. Their primary purpose is to hurt American workers by moving jobs overseas.

    H1Bs are not illegal migrants. All those companies are Indian companies, none anti-Western. Their primary purpose is to increase their profits. If the American federal government and American corporations didn’t give them contracts they wouldn’t be able to move any jobs overseas. Offshoring is a decision of American managers, based on increasing the profits of their companies and thus enriching themselves. Why would Indians want to hurt American workers? Aren’t you blaming everyone except those who deserve to be blamed for things you complain about?

    Between 50-80% of German migrants are unemployed (1). You are badly misinformed if you believe that Germany is successfully handling blue collar migrant employment.

    First, I just said the German blue-collar class is doing well despite migration. Secondly, the link you sent is about asylum seekers who just (as in the past few years) escaped wars in their countries. Not the best example for your argument.

    MAGA Reindustrialization is not going back to the 1960’s.

    There will be no reindustrialization. America is already industrial anyway. The need for factory workers will keep going down, more labor-intensive industries will be based on low-wage countries or some of them will be automated as well. Economic nationalism would be destructive for the US, simply because too many of its corporations have huge markets abroad. It would however be beneficial for export-oriented or domestic-based, smaller economies.

    I think you are blaming the wrong sides for your real or perceived misfortunes, it is not Indian companies, Chinese politicians, or Mexican farmworkers who control your businesses and your government. You are blaming other people for your own leadership’s actions. Moreover, I think you would not be willing to take a reduction in your comfort or economic well-being for these goals you are speaking of. It is also you who elected your business and political leaders. Even if you personally are an exception, in general, this is the case.

    In any case, I think we discussed enough. I get your points. You can respond if you wish to clarify something, but this is my last post here.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  333. @Godfree Roberts

    The next, INEVITABLE, stage will be the accusation that anyone who argues against the racist war frenzy is a traitor-a race and civilizational traitor. Indeed, the psychopaths at SkyNews have long accused New Zealand of ‘treachery’ because they are somewhat reluctant to join the war drive against China.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  334. This thread provides strong support to the view that you don’t need elaborate conspiracy theories when human stupidity satisfactorily explains everything.

  335. @Blade

    Corporations are hiring illegal migrants? I thought it was generally low-wage, low education jobs. Like farming, manual labor, and so on.

    Both. Cool from a free-market viewpoint, awful from a nationalist perspective.

    H1Bs are not illegal migrants.

    As I said, free market and national economic policies are often incompatible. What is good for India-based multinationals isn’t the best for American service workers, since the jobs themselves are moving outside the States. Economic nationalism prefers a largely self-contained economy as the social optimum even if it is inefficient, like the Soviets. Same thing with migration, on labor efficiency in their country of origin vs destination.

    First, I just said the German blue-collar class is doing well despite migration.

    Economic welfare doesn’t mean ethnic security.

    Secondly, the link you sent is about asylum seekers who just (as in the past few years) escaped wars in their countries.

    Correct. And it’s foolish to integrate them into the society if it is not culturally compatible (e.g. Syrians in Lebanon).

    There will be no reindustrialization. America is already industrial anyway. The need for factory workers will keep going down, more labor-intensive industries will be based on low-wage countries or some of them will be automated as well. Economic nationalism would be destructive for the US, simply because too many of its corporations have huge markets abroad. It would however be beneficial for export-oriented or domestic-based, smaller economies.

    A123 doesn’t want any of your economically efficient arguments. As far as US blue-collars and white-collars are more employed, the money stays in the US and embargos on goods, capital & labor to keep outside economic influence out, he is happy. He wants soft economic autarky to secure the US’s position.

    I think you are blaming the wrong sides for your real or perceived misfortunes, it is not Indian companies, Chinese politicians, or Mexican farmworkers who control your businesses and your government.

    True.

    You are blaming other people for your own leadership’s actions. Moreover, I think you would not be willing to take a reduction in your comfort or economic well-being for these goals you are speaking of. It is also you who elected your business and political leaders. Even if you personally are an exception, in general, this is the case.

    Have you read his previous posts here? It isn’t his leadership. His leadership is Trumpist. Trumpists don’t pick the political leadership of the US which is currently working largely against their interests and voted in as a fluke and with lots of electoral irregularities. Trumpists also want to decapacitate Big Business, or those part subscribing to globalist & woke hegemony at least. Their business interests (that are still there under woke veneer) would in his worldview be striving for the interest of their national workers.

    Compromise might be dead…

    • Thanks: A123
    • Replies: @A123
  336. @mulga mumblebrain

    At the end of the day, political expediency trumps everything. It’s bad if the establishment want multuculturalism, but good for screwing China.

  337. antibeast says:
    @Dmitry

    Although note that money laundering is not the only practical use of the decentralized cryptocurrency – it also provides very financially successful service of gambling, (not very secure) store of value, Ponzi, as well as some ideological/religious services.

    The market capitalization of Bitcoin reached a peak of \$1.2T in 2021 which can’t be explained by small-time speculators addicted to gambling or amateur hobbyists running Bitcoin miners. While compulsive gamblers did contribute to the initial popularity of Bitcoin (as did amateur miners), the sudden spikes in the value of Bitcoin can’t be attributed to those amateur speculators.

    Here’s a graph of the price history of Bitcoin:

    There are three spikes in the price of Bitcoin during the last five years, in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The first spike was caused by Xi’s anti-corruption campaign in China while the second spike had to do with institutional investors piling into cryptos as an alternative asset. The last spike occurred right after the massive flood of excess cash printed by the Fed following the Covid-19 pandemic. The first spike caused China to start cracking down on Bitcoin which was being used for illicit cross-border money transfers bypassing the banking system.

    With a maximum circulation of 21M coins, Bitcoin works differently from Ponzi schemes because it will always go up in price due to the way its halving algorithm reduces the number of new Bitcoins awarded to a new block by half after mining a certain number of blocks. The number of Bitcoins reached 18M after its last halving in May 2020 which preceded its exponential rise in 2021.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  338. niceland says:

    Dr Michael Hudson believes China is going the route of industrial capitalism, not financial. If true this is a good sign for it’s development. Crackdown on cryptocurrencies could be a sign of this. If crypto and block-chain technology prove to be successful in something else than just moving money between pockets (and therefore just one more instrument in the financial engineering) – I guess China can rather quickly lift the ban and adopt said tech for it’s advantage.

    When it comes to the extremely important sector of energy, China seems to be leading the world today in developing nuclear tech, I read somewhere they are about to fire up the worlds first Thorium salt reactor this month. They seem to be doing research in all possible means of providing energy. Ask Europe if this is important.

    Their space program is impressive, and it’s going to have huge impact – lifting spirits at home and filling their young with dreams and optimism about the future. Or what impact did the space race have on America, was it worth it? I believe it had massive positive impact. Imagine America today with massive space program, having already colonized Mars and streaming high res imagery from Jupiter’s moons doing all kinds of cool stuff – – instead of current reality, pouring trillions of dollars into wars in the middle east and world wide saber rattling.

    But I am increasingly skeptical about its ability to produce anything that is… really interesting/world-transformational.

    Would it be fair to say the same thing about, well, pretty much the rest of the world today?

    Looking further it seems inevitable the world has to figure out a way for steady state economies. Meaning living with monetary system that doesn’t cause enormous pain if economic growth is zero for prolonged time. I don’t know if China has plans for this in the future. For the moment they seem to be one of the few, or perhaps the only nation in the world that could do it.

    • Agree: Adept
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  339. @antibeast

    Rather than seeing Bitcoin’s price going up, it is USD devaluing against Bitcoin.

    • Replies: @AnonfromTN
    , @antibeast
  340. @niceland

    Looking further it seems inevitable the world has to figure out a way for steady state economies.

    Whether it’s on a high level or low level (neo-medieval economics and society).

  341. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    Since Blade has checked out I will respond to your post. You have largely grasped what I am aiming at in your summary.
    ___

    I find Blade’s position perplexing. 100% of the problem is “The West”. All others are blameless, pure as the driven snow.

    Unlike Blade, I have been assigning responsibility to large numbers of different parties.
    ___

    I never said that H1B’s are illegal. They should be… but they are not. There is more than enough blame to go around. It starts with the anti-Western MegaCorporations who came up with the idea and sold it. Congress and Executive regulators are also guilty for not controlling the program to meet “real need”. The program is so large now, it is obviously suppressing wages. At this point it cannot be salvaged and must be repealed.

    A123 doesn’t want any of your economically efficient arguments. As far as US blue-collars and white-collars are more employed, the money stays in the US and embargos on goods, capital & labor to keep outside economic influence out, he is happy. He wants soft economic autarky to secure the US’s position.

    I am a bit more eclectic than this, but as a summary it is a really good starting point.

    I will go back to a point from my prior post, All Trade is Managed Trade. I am perfectly willing to have international trade where it serves U.S. workers & citizens. As a corollary, “free markets” are not free and do not serve the interests of Americans.

    Some raw materials need to be imported. There are a bunch of specialty finished goods that are only made in one or two countries. The U.S. farming sector is very efficient and thus a good exporter. But, I do understand that other nations seeking food security will not service a “free trade fantasy” that wipes out their domestic agriculture.

    Tariffs on real goods need to be higher for all countries. Trade deals should never broadly reduce tariffs. Deals should be much narrower, mostly bilateral, and aimed at specific goods where workers in both countries gain.

    Have you read his previous posts here? It isn’t his leadership. His leadership is Trumpist.

    If I lost fair and square I would take it… However, that did not happen.

    It is a matter of objective fact that Not-The-President Biden did not win. Just look at the Maricopa County audit 50K+ suspicious and irregular ballots (1). That is not even the entire state of Arizona and it is more than enough to swing the outcome.

    Trumpists also want to decapacitate Big Business, or those part subscribing to globalist & woke hegemony at least.

    Compromise might be dead…

    Compromise is a two way street -and- requires trust. The Nazi-crat party killed compromise by stealing the election and betraying the the American people. How can anyone trust them ever again? If they want to compromise, it is 100% on them. And, they are going to have to make huge concessions up front to have any shot at regaining trust.
    ____

    Robert A. Heinlein predicted the failure of the current system back in ~1960:

    Bread and Circuses’ is the cancer of democracy, the fatal disease for which there is no cure. Democracy often works beautifully at first. But once a state extends the franchise to every warm body, be he producer or parasite, that day marks the beginning of the end of the state. For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader—the barbarians enter Rome.”

    Democracy under the U.S. Constitution assumes shared values about Rights and Responsibilities. The Constitution no longer functions be cause one side believe in few Rights (some of the crazy to the point of incoherence) and no Responsibilities. The foundational documents of the U.S. need to be changed so that it is a nation of Productive Citizens, by Productive Citizens, and for Productive Citizens. Those incapable or unwilling of carrying the Responsibilities of Citizenship must be relegated to a lesser status, for their own on protection as well as everyone else.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/trump-statement-az-audit-huge-findings-arizona-undeniable-evidence-fraud-major-criminal-event/

  342. sher singh says:
    @A123

    Here, I will summarize your political views:

    Democracy under the US constitution assumes a white population, your values are only shared by a voting plurality of whites|| Take the plunge already, here’s a good place to start: https://www.azquotes.com/author/6758-Adolf_Hitler

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  343. @A123

    PBUYT

    I’m not agreeing with some of your viewpoints but merely explaining them to him.

    It starts with the anti-Western MegaCorporations who came up with the idea and sold it.

    I’d assume you want to limit H1B visas to White immigrants and shut off anything else. If you were honest you will support reviving the National Origins Quota System in force between 1924-1965. That was good for Middle America while it lasted. If you see things more extremely, like racialists down the street, mass repatriation of non-European immigrants and their descendants post-1965 could be the Final Solution (not that I support such a forceful act).

    I will go back to a point from my prior post, All Trade is Managed Trade. I am perfectly willing to have international trade where it serves U.S. workers & citizens. As a corollary, “free markets” are not free and do not serve the interests of Americans.

    Tariffs on real goods need to be higher for all countries. Trade deals should never broadly reduce tariffs. Deals should be much narrower, mostly bilateral, and aimed at specific goods where workers in both countries gain.

    Would tend to agree, even if this harms so-called economic efficiency (liberals loves using this excuse to dissolve regional & national economies into a mass of international trade). Countries should be able to shut off trade as they will, temporarily or indefinitely, and all globalist free trade institutions should be abolished. Barriers could also be erected between states, regions and localities. But this shouldn’t be done with hostility.

    Compromise is a two way street -and- requires trust. The Nazi-crat party killed compromise by stealing the election and betraying the the American people. How can anyone trust them ever again? If they want to compromise, it is 100% on them. And, they are going to have to make huge concessions up front to have any shot at regaining trust.

    I love seeing the 2 ends of American madhouse politics hate and extinguish each other to death, because the survivors left and right will come out saner. Prayers for you, the GOP and the Democrats, and every faction in between.
    https://robertstark.substack.com/p/why-the-new-populist-gop-is-the-worst
    Good thing AK tweeted this link.

    • Replies: @A123
  344. @Dmitry

    BYD – Nio – Xpeng already are very nice. Not the best of the best yet but an absolute competent competitor to Tesla as sales show. (Many are already preferring a BYD Han to a Tesla model 3). All three are starting to ship to Europe now believe it or not. The Chinese car industry is just like the Japanese and Korean before it. The difference now though is that EV’S are fairly new so the learning curveis fairly close. And as opposed to combustion engines – 2 of the top 5 battery companies in the world are Chinese.

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Dmitry
  345. antibeast says:
    @Showmethereal

    The value of an EV comes from its software not its hardware. Things like batteries and electric motors will become commodities just like their aluminum bodies while its software platform — 5G apps, AI, autonomous driving, car navigation, safety features — will determine its value in the market. In many ways, the EV market will resemble the smartphone market which is determined by the value of its software platforms as manifested in their app ecosystems. Think of an EV as a mobile robot with the intelligence to perform tasks related to transportation such as delivery. That’s why Huawei is interested in entering the EV market, not so much as a car manufacturer but as a technology provider.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  346. @Ron Unz

    There’s no benefit to crypto or even a distributed ledger that anybody can articulate on the crypto side.

    Xi is smart. He will eventually produce a digital Chinese currency. Until then China just needs to keep growing.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
  347. @YetAnotherAnon

    This is a portion of on the most famous paintings Along the River During the Qingming Festival 清明上河圖

    View post on imgur.com


    Intended to show how lively and crowded Song capital Kaifeng. This was when China was 100 million people.

    One of the reasons given for the relative stagnation of China versus Europe was that if the Chinese population was large enough, workers cheap enough, and agrarian productivity high enough to not require mechanization: thousands of Chinese workers were perfectly able to quickly perform any needed task.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_science_and_technology_in_China#Scientific_and_technological_stagnation

    • Replies: @antibeast
  348. @tamo

    You are a mediocrity who like many China shills here, don’t even know the Chinese language.

    If PRC was filled entirely with midwits like you, there would be another 600 years of Ming Qing technological stagnation. Luckily it’s not.

    Go ahead, rant some more with quotes from New York Times

    • Replies: @tamo
  349. tamo says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    Hey,little punk, I have been so far very patient with your stupidity. It’s obvious you don’t know what the fuck you are talking about and only good at spewing garbage out of your big mouth.

    You don’t know anything about countless ground-breaking Chinese technological achievements that spread all over the world before the coming of the Industrial Revolution

    I think you are a sissy looking ugly weakling who can not get a date with any woman of any race, lol !!
    I’d like to see you so that I can rearrange your ugly face, you sorry MF.

  350. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    I’d assume you want to limit H1B visas to White immigrants and shut off anything else. If you were honest you will support reviving the National Origins Quota System in force between 1924-1965. That was good for Middle America while it lasted.

    What % of Progressives come from a White European background?

    I would much rather have a competent South Korean rather than a mush brain, pajama boy from Europe. In some ways it might be better. Anyone living in Seoul viscerally understands that “freedom is not free“.

    The key tests would be:
        • An *actual* need, so a U.S. Citizen is not displaced.
        • The ability to assimilate to Patriotic American culture.

    Keeping the numbers of new arrivals down and preventing them from accumulating in enclaves would be key.

    The U.S. could free up space for desirables, by moving out failures. The Somalis’ in Minnesota had plenty of time to assimilate, but they refused. Time is up, send them back.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  351. @A123

    What % of Progressives come from a White European background?

    A big chunk of them are the product of White elite overproduction.

    I would much rather have a competent South Korean rather than a mush brain, pajama boy from Europe.

    You can modify the proportions a bit according to the level of “development”. But the spirit is the same.

    The key tests would be:
    • An *actual* need, so a U.S. Citizen is not displaced.
    • The ability to assimilate to Patriotic American culture.

    If you see “America” as an ideal, those are quite sound. But Middle America is a thing and they’d prefer ethnic homogeneity. I’m in favor of neither because none of those are my matter except when I come to the US.

    Keeping the numbers of new arrivals down and preventing them from accumulating in enclaves would be key.

    OK? OK if you see a dominant, Judeo-Christian and Euro-modern American culture. Maybe some empty space elsewhere will benefit refugees and ethnic enclaves.

    • Replies: @A123
  352. @antibeast

    Yes I agree that software will be more i portant – but hardware will always matter. A Porsche Taycan can still command a higher price than a Tesla and the main reason is Porsche hardware. Even though cars will be driving soon – i think it will be quite a while before it is readily adopted. Maybe in 30 years people wont care but for now people still are about performance of vehicles when buying “desirable” vehicles vs just a “people mover”. In the same way in a smartphone hardware still matters. People want the phone that loads the fastest and has the sharpest camera and can display the best graphics.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  353. A123 says: • Website
    @Yellowface Anon

    Middle America is a thing and they’d prefer ethnic homogeneity.

    Middle America wants Cultural Homogeneity. They are perfectly happy to deal with those who share their values.

    Former Sheriff, Darryl Daniels, Clay County Florida was highly popular in the 80%+ White district when he said this in July 2020: (1)

    “But God is absent from the media’s message or Black Lives Matter or any other group out there that’s making themselves a spectacle, disrupting what we know to be our quality of life in this country.

    “I will exercise the power and authority as the sheriff, and I’ll make special deputies of every lawful gun owner in this county. And I’ll deputize them for this one purpose: to stand in the gap between lawlessness and civility. That’s what we’re sworn to do, and that’s what we’re gonna do. You’ve been warned.”

    Alas, there was some sort of sex related controversy. Apparently, he destroyed a cell phone after it was subpoenaed. The cover up is always worse than the crime. Destroying evidence is an unrecoverable error.

    PEACE 😇
    __________

    (1) https://www.lawenforcementtoday.com/sheriff-vows-to-deputize-every-gun-owner-if-deputies-overwhelmed/

     
     

  354. Dmitry says:
    @Showmethereal

    In the more expensive section of the market, the Chinese-Swedish Polestar/Volvo EV is receiving good reviews on YouTube.

    This just identical price to the Model 3, with supposedly similar quality and driving feel (except the fastcharging network).

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
  355. @A123

    I never said that H1B’s are illegal. They should be… but they are not. There is more than enough blame to go around. It starts with the anti-Western MegaCorporations who came up with the idea and sold it. Congress and Executive regulators are also guilty for not controlling the program to meet “real need”.

    Turns out this was started in earnest when Reagan appointed one Erich Bloch to be the head of the National Science Foundation in 1984. The first to not be a scientist, not even have a Ph.D., he was an EE and industrialist from IBM, and he was sure of one thing, the US was paying too much for STEM labor. This resulted in all sorts of initiatives to flood the market which was already over stuffed in biology, from Third World grad students including of course from the PRC to the H1B program you’re discussing about. The “real need” is as has been defined since the 1970s to pay as little as possible for labor.

    • Agree: A123
  356. @Blade

    You aren’t disagreeing with my point but merely showing that socio-economic conditions in the origin country do not 100% determine how effective the migrants will be once in the new county.

    As for you seeking a “one simple explanation” for everything, that’s stupid.

    Western countries allow immigration for many reasons. Some of these are as obvious as the fact that the type of harsh enforcement that is needed to stop it, is also a lot more unpopular than the immigration itself.

    [MORE]

    Immigration restriction activists sadly won’t face up to this fact and therefore imagine ever more arcane explanations for their failure.

    Politicians in democracies are actually excellent at reading the popular mood and delivering what is wanted; which includes legal restrictions and talk against low-skilled immigration, combined with the kind of weak enforcement that still allows the populace to feel nice.

    Compare a country where the government doesn’t have the consent of the governed and the United States and there is a world of difference. The biggest flare-ups are people getting cancelled on Twitter and the January 6th “insurgency.” I hate the cancellations on Twitter and sympathise with the “insurgents” but “disappearances” and the “October Revolution” they are not.

    A lot of the political discussion is dominated by people who use politics to express their emotions consciously and those whose emotions come up unconsciously through their political worldview. The SJW screamers tend to be the former and the dissident right doomsayers tend to be the latter. In the end, both get exactly what they are asking for, which is a space for a weird sort of therapy. Meanwhile, politics stays in a messy and consented-to middle that people are absolutely fine with.

    Only deranged and extreme examples of those two types need the psychological cope of thinking that the Jews or the government is conspiring against them and that they are unique fighters against overwhelming hordes of evil and eternal plots.

    Put out an opinion poll which asks “do you want illegal immigrants to be whipped and their children put in cages” and you’ll find that there is minimal support for restriction, yet the US actually does have and do those things! Is the US government therefore defying the will of the US people in a conspiracy to keep immigrants out?

    Or does the government just need to be rational about the costs, implications and contradictions of the opinions of the people of the country? People want nicer immigration enforcement and more restriction, so they get a fudge of both, and they are generally happy. Just as people want lower taxes and higher government spending and get a fudge of that too.

    Of course looking at things so calmly and even-handedly deflates the viewer’s ego. There isn’t a dire emergency that only they understand, and they aren’t extremely important to the narrative of the world.

    It is also scary because it pushes them to confront whatever wounds and traumas caused them to engage in politics as a metaphor for their internal struggles in the first place. I find it so strange that they find this difficult, but then this type of egotistical solipsism pretending to worldliness is ordinary.

    This is why you can point out all of this really basic stuff to them and they’ll freak out or be unable to understand. The point is that it was never about politics. It was always about them, otherwise they would have already realised this stuff and they would be a lot more perpispacious. Their insecurities would also not be screaming so loud from their every word and action.

    The SJWs at least half-realise that what they are doing is therapy or spiritual. Much of the former alt right is so repressed that they don’t even realise how much they need those things, nevermind that they are subconsciously engaging in it, all of the time.

    Being practical is not about having no emotions, but about acknowledging them and calmly making good decisions based on reality and your own desires. Many US politicians may be annoying as they are so self-important, but they are pretty good at being practical. Those saying that the politicians are involved in a conspiracy against them need to grow up. It is embarrassing reading old age men pretend to be seriously setting the world to rights while really they are just punching at shadows from their childhood.

    Maybe when they come back around and are now five year old girls, they can simply scream all of that malevolent misunderstanding away.

    On the other hand, I do like a bit of hyperbole and mental experimentation, so perhaps many of them are engaged in an elaborate pantomine and I don’t always get the joke? I’m often not sure which layer of a person it is that I am addressing. The “synagogue of Satan are using vaccines to turn us perverted” crowd might actually be having a lot of fun in their paranoid delusions. I just think that perhaps if they accepted that it is OK to be ordinary, confused and not know much, then they would breath a lot easier. It can’t be comfortable having to constantly work yourself into extreme moral righteousness and millenarian fantasies to hide what’s right in front of your eyes from yourself. I feel exhausted just thinking about it.

    • Agree: sher singh
    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @Blade
  357. @Yellowface Anon

    Rather than seeing Bitcoin’s price going up, it is USD devaluing against Bitcoin.

    Absolutely. What we see is inflation sparked by the US printing dollars like there is no tomorrow. The same inflation caused recent spike in the US real estate prices. The same goes for the US stock market. Most “relief” dollars ended up in the pockets of speculators, individual and institutional, so the price in USD of these things went up. You have to be either mad or an economist not to see this. Say, when you go to a store and find that the same piece of chicken costs you more, you don’t call it “chicken market growth”, you call it by its proper name, inflation. But when the same stock costs you more, you don’t use proper word, you call it “stock market growth”.

  358. LondonBob says:
    @Eugene Norman

    All currencies are digital already, otherwise I agree.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
  359. @LondonBob

    There are still some paper bucks and small change.

  360. @sher singh

    The Middle Kingdom gonna find itself stuck in Middle Income the way it going, LOL.

    Meanwhile, India will leapfrog the Middle Income stage and go directly to the top of the High Income economies– just as it has skipped the manufacturing economy phase and has already become an advanced service economy. 😀

    • Thanks: Yellowface Anon
    • Replies: @sher singh
  361. antibeast says:
    @Showmethereal

    The hardware differences between EV brands is far less than gas vehicles which makes their product differences more dependent upon their software-enabled intelligent features. Things like electric motors, batteries, etc. will still matter but they will become commodities over time which is exactly what is happening today in the smartphone market: Apple (for the premium market) and Android (for the mass market). Apple’s iPhones lag behind high-end Android smartphones in hardware features but still command a premium price due to its iOS software ecosystem. Same thing with TESLA as its Chinese competitors NIO, Xpeng, etc. have better hardware specs yet TESLA still command a premium price due to its software-enabled intelligent features. That could change once Huawei starts offering its HarmonyOS-enabled EV technology to Chinese brands.

    • Replies: @tamo
  362. antibeast says:
    @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

    One of the reasons given for the relative stagnation of China versus Europe was that if the Chinese population was large enough, workers cheap enough, and agrarian productivity high enough to not require mechanization: thousands of Chinese workers were perfectly able to quickly perform any needed task.

    No, that is Western Orientalist propaganda. The Song Neo-Confucianists were the equivalent of the Empirical Rationalists in Western Europe except that Zhu Xi’s Neo-Confucian Rationalism predated Immanuel Kant’s Empirical Rationalism by five centuries. The Song Dynasty had in fact experienced something of an Industrial Revolution before getting conquered by the Mongol invaders which retarded China’s technological progress. The Manchu rulers likewise imposed their aristocratic feudalism on the Han Chinese during the Qing Dynasty which impeded the industrial modernization of the Chinese economy. The Song Dynasty had water engines, water canals, steel mills, etc. while the Ming Dynasty built the massive fleets for Zheng He’s famous voyages, long before the Europeans ever did. The Manchu rulers in particular became hostile to commerce and industry while indulging in lavish consumption, similar to how the French Aristocracy had lived before the French Revolution. The reason for the stagnation was Manchu Obscurantism which impeded Han Chinese attempts to modernize the Chinese economy until the Xinhai Revolution in 1911.

    The West actually borrowed heavily from the East, especially from the Islamic World, after a thousand years being stuck in the medieval feudalism of European Nobility. Western historiography tends to downplay the eternal debt that the West owes to the Islamic World for the Italian Renaissance and the Scientific Revolution, both of which would not have been possible without Westerners learning from Muslim Scholars.

    • Agree: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @tamo
  363. antibeast says:
    @Yellowface Anon

    I was going to add my observation that institutional investors discovered cryptos as a way to hedge inflation caused by USD printing which occurred right after the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world. There is so much USD sloshing around the world financial markets that institutional investors are now chasing alternative assets like crazy so much so that Bitcoin’s market cap hit a peak of US\$1.2T before coming down after China banned cryptos. Bitcoin has become more attractive than other alternative assets such as real-estate because you can move Bitcoins around without the taxman noticing it. That’s the key to understanding why Bitcoin went parabolic .

  364. tamo says:
    @antibeast

    I agree wholeheartedly what you said EXCEPT your description of Qing dynasty. If you have a chance please read an outstanding essay titled The Granduer of The Qing State by professor Madeline Zelin of Columbia University. Also another excellent essay named China and Europe, 1500-2000 and Beyond by professors Ken Pormeranz, Bin Wong.

    Under the rules 3 emperors of Kangxi, Yongzheng, Qianlong from 1662 to 1796; Qing dynasty developed enormous market economy that was bigger and more sophisticated than Europe. Qing dynasty kept taxes low and encouraged not only it’s massive internal commerce but also foreign trade.

    As a matter of fact, eventually about 40% of silver mined by Europeans in the Americas from the 16
    thru the 18th centuries ended up in China at the end of the 18th century, due to Europe’s insatiable thirst for such Chinese goods as top notch silk fabrics, porcelain, processed tea.

    On the other hand, Europe had almost nothing to sell to China. Even Chinese mechanical clock makers made clocks as good as British ones at the-thirds of the cost in the 18th century.

    Even though Ming dynasty initiated the infamous Sea Ban, basically Chinese traders ignored the edicts and kept on trading overseas and eventually Ming government got rid of the unworkable Sea Ban.

    It’s a gross Eurocentric propaganda that both Ming and Qing practiced close-door policies thus bringing on stagnation to China, If needed, both Ming and Qing eagerly incorporated foreign ideas into their own system

    For example, the Ming and Qing dynasties incorporated some parts of European cannon technology into their own so that until the 1750s, Chinese cannons were at least as good as European ones. But China still had better rocket, bomb, mine technologies until the end of the 18th century.

    In 1750, China had the biggest economy in the world and it’s living standards were at least as high as or even higher than those in Europe and also China was still ahead of Europe even in TECHNOLOGY.

    But the Industrial Revolution that started around 1760 in Europe changed everything .
    By the time the Opium War arrived in 1839, China was far behind Europe and the rest is history.

    There is an excellent book titled The Age of Confucian Rule: The Song Transformation of China by Dieter Kuhn, a well- respected sinologist. In China, a renaissance and a powerful industrial revolution based on water power, occurred from the 11th century thru the 13th century about 500 years before they happened in Europe. Before the Industrial Revolution, a lot of Chinese ideas and TECHNOLOGIES greatly influenced Europe.

    All the ancient civilizations were pre-scientific. Science itself was born in the 11th century Islamic civilization that gave birth to the crucial EXPERIMENTAL SCIENTIFIC METHOD that was pioneered by Ibn al Hytham who wrote BOOK of OPTICS that highly influenced many European
    scientists specially Newton.

    Some scholars call Ibn al Hytham the FIRST scientist in the world history. You can see Euro-centrists are full of it.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  365. tamo says:
    @antibeast

    My reply to your post 369 is post 371. I’m sorry about the confusion.

  366. Blade says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    As for you seeking a “one simple explanation” for everything, that’s stupid.

    I agree seeking one simple explanation for everything is stupid. Do you know what else is stupid? Using straw man arguments. I repeatedly, implicitly said that not everything has simple explanations on this very thread. But I think you have problems deducing ideas unless they are explicitly stated.

    I am not sure what you’re saying here as well. You wrote twice to my posts claiming that I don’t know something, then you go on to say the most obvious things that I haven’t denied anywhere in my comments, on the contrary, I did explicitly said some answers would require books. In any case, here too you are ranting but not really stating any opinions other than very general observations.

    Since you seem to have trouble understanding things without being explicitly explained for you, I will summarize my argument as much as it can be done in three points (for others who are confused as well):

    a) Globalism and multiculturalism are tools to continue and extend Western hegemony,
    b) Multiculturalism is a part of globalism,
    c) End goal is to ensure high material wealth in the Western countries,

    Then I went on to explain how the leaders of the West implemented, or what their goals were. Also, stating opinions does not mean I agree or defend their ideals. A123 responded with how he disagreed with things I’ve said and argued my points were not correct. He thinks Western leaders and elites want to destroy the West and globalism is a tool for that, but could not explain why. Regardless, at least he said something and made his opinion clear. You keep jumping in, but really not saying anything. Do you have an opinion on any of the three points above? Because really, everything I’ve written so far is arguments and facts building around these points. So far you keep insisting I am saying something stupid or I am confused, but really, what you said so far is nothing but beating around the bush on corollary subjects which I could discuss for hours as well but would rather not waste my time.

    If you have an opinion, or a real answer refuting things, rather than empty rhetoric on existential fears of the Western people, go ahead and write. It was you who jumped in on my comments acting like you got something right that I got wrong without really refuting anything, how do you expect me to disagree with you when you are pretending to make arguments?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  367. @BRK2

    I think we’re going to see China do some incredibly smart things like maintaining order. And also some incredibly stupid things, like not switching to a democratic government that can smoothly change leaders.

    You’re kidding right? China’s system has smoothly and effectively changed leaders like a dream for the last few decades. Western democracies, and in particular the USA on the other hand… the clown show just gets worse and worse, with no obvious way to stop the spiral.

    A democratic system would be an open invitation for greater outside meddling (‘Five Eyes’ are still good at stirring up division and mayhem with their intel agencies, if not much else), a more divided society, and one less capable of long term planning, to name a just few things. What exactly would the gain from this ‘incredibly stupid’ not-to-make move be?

    • Agree: Blade, mulga mumblebrain
  368. sher singh says:
    @Deep Thought

    India will become Khalistan, shrug

    My only bone to pick with China is the religious policy,
    I’ll gladly be a cop in Shanghai or HK again & kick Han over it||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @tamo
    , @Deep Thought
  369. tamo says:
    @sher singh

    In your wet dreams,little boy. LOL !!!

    • Replies: @sher singh
  370. sher singh says:
    @tamo

    Ok, the underwear’s too small in China too||

    • Replies: @tamo
  371. tamo says:
    @sher singh

    Your underwear is too small because it’s full of shit just like you, little fucker, lol.

    • Replies: @sher singh
  372. antibeast says:
    @tamo

    You’re wrong about the Qing Dynasty being supportive of commerce and industry. They weren’t as they preferred grandiose palaces (“Yuanming Yuan“) to public works. The Manchu rulers installed themselves as an aristocratic nobility similar to the European Nobility and styled themselves as connoisseurs of Chinese art. But they neglected science and technology which flourished in the West after the Italian Renaissance. When Lord Macartney visited the Qing Dynasty in Beijing, the Manchu rulers famously rebuffed the British, thus delaying China’s industrialization by a century until the First Sino-Japanese War forced the Qing Dynasty to allow foreign investment in industrial enterprises. The British, for example, wanted to build railroads in China but were blocked by the Manchu rulers TWICE in the 19th century. By way of comparison, the British Raj in India started building railroads as early as the mid-19 century which culminated in India having 50K kms of railroads at independence in 1947 while China had only 20K kms of railroads after WWII with half of them built in Japanese-run Manchuria. In other words, India under British rule was way ahead of China which took until the 1980s to reach 50K kms of railroads!!!

    The Western propaganda about the alleged ‘creativity’ of Western minds leading to the Italian Renaissance and the Scientific Revolution in the West is just that — mumbo, jumbo. The fact of the matter is that the West was BEHIND the East in commerce and industry as well as science and technology for well over a thousand years until Westerners started learning from Islamic scholars in the East. The first people in the West to study from Islamic scholars were not even Westerners but Easterners fleeing from Constantinople after its conquest by the Ottomans which forced the mass exodus of learned men from the Byzantine Empire to the Italian peninsula.

    It took the West until the Industrial Revolution in England in the 19th century to reach the steel production of Song China in the 11th century!!! Same with cotton textiles which took the West until the 19th century to surpass India which had been the world’s greatest manufacturer of cotton textiles!!! The West had to import cotton textile from India and silk from China from the 16th to the 18th centuries, paid for by the wealth plundered from the Americas or acquired from the African slave trade. This wealth allowed the Westerners to finance the Italian Renaissance as well as the Scientific Revolution. Instead of building more cathedrals, Western merchants were now patronizing Renaissance artists, scholars, scientists, etc. During this time, the Qing Dynasty was busy building ornate palaces and collecting art while neglecting science and technology even though some 40% of the silver mined in the Americas flowed to China courtesy of the Spanish Galleon Trade.

    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @tamo
  373. sher singh says:
    @tamo

    Not a Hindu Nationalist or a Han||
    Not involved in your Pol circle jerk on whose Chad’s are harder||

    Just a Singh, you wanna die come to our HQ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anandpur_Sahib
    You should lift weights & worship weapons (carry)||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @tamo
  374. sher singh says:
    @antibeast

    Cope & seeth, the West still won|| Doesn’t mean it’s winning today or will tomorrow||
    The 19th C with its We Wuz Greeks & Aryan invasions is over||

    Non-white christians are lit slaves of the Germano-Latin narrative|| Go lift niglet||
    https://akarlin.com/2009/09/struggle-europe-mankind/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  375. tamo says:
    @antibeast

    No, I’m not wrong because I’m talking about the High Qing Era from 1632-1796 when Qing dynasty actively encouraged internal commerce and foreign trade with NO commercial taxes. No wonder Qing dynasty was the biggest economy in the world with high living standards to go with in 1750.

    I’m NOT talking about the 19th century Qing dynasty when it rapidly declined after the death of Emperor Qianlong in 1799. China started to fall behind from around 1760 when the European Industrial Revolution began.

    Everything you said about the 19th century Qing dynasty is true so that I have no problem with that.

    For your information, the Western domination ONLY began with the coming of the Industrial Revolution. From the ancient times to the Industrial Revolution, along with India, China had the biggest economy in the world and was far ahead of Europe in TECHNOLOGY.

    I’m going to list VERY FEW of many Chinese inventions and ideas that were transmitted to Europe through direct or indirect transmission or stimulus diffusion before the Industrial Revolution (some of the Chinese technologies were even transmitted at the late stage of the first Industrial Revolution) and revolutionized Europe.

    China invented compass, rudder, leeboard, centerboard, multi-mast( ships with more than 3 masts
    without using oars) and also watertight compartments ( China developed them in the 1st century AD but Europe didn’t use for their ships until the late 18th century). Without adopting all these Chinese inventions, the European voyages of discovery and later -day high sea sailings wouldn’t have been possible.

    Also China invented not only paper but also printing (both woodblock and movable type about 400 years before Gutenberg who had been very likely influenced by the movable type developments in China and Korea beforehand, developed one). Without assimilating these Chinese inventions, the SPREAD of Renaissance would have been extremely difficult.

    China invented not only gunpowder but also gun, cannon, rocket including multi-stage ones, both land and sea mines, bomb, even hand grenade. All these Chinese military technologies were transmitted to Europe by direct or indirect diffusion . Can you imagine the modern military without these Chinese inventions?

    Also China invented blast furnace, cast iron, coking coal and so- called Bessemer Steel Process, Siemens’ Steel process, weaving machines (the British weaving machines such as spinning jenny , flying shuttle were inferior copies of existing Chinese weaving machines), drilling techniques for oil and natural gas ( China drilled for natural gas and transferred it through pipelines for heating and lighting starting in the 4th century BC.

    On the other hand, Europe didn’t use natural gas until the 19th century but again Britain was the first country in Europe to use natural gas in 1798 and Europeans and Americans finally got the deep -drilling technologies for oil and gas from China in the 19th century).

    All these Chinese inventions were transmitted to Europe. So without using these Chinese inventions, the Industrial Revolution wouldn’t have been possible.

    Even in agriculture, Europe got modern horse collar, moldboard cast iron plow, rotary winnowing fan, MULTI -seed drill technologies and the techniques of row cultivation of crops and intense hoeing by horse-drawn hoes from China( with the exception of the horse collar which Europe adopted in the 8th century, the rest of the Chinese agricultural technologies were adopted by Europe only in the 18th century).

    This really shows how technologically backward Europe was before the Industrial Revolution compared to China.

    By adopting all these Chinese technologies, Britain could bring about an agricultural revolution in the 18th century These are just some of the Chinese inventions and ideas that were transmitted to Europe that revolutionized Europe before the Industrial Revolution.

    According to Robert Temple, a well-respected scholar of Eastern studies, more than half of the BASIC inventions and innovation that laid the foundations for the modern world BEFORE the Industrial Revolution, came from China .

    In science, Europe overtook China in astronomy in the 16th century, physics and math in the 17th century. But China was still ahead of Europe in botany. chemistry until the end of the 18th century. Also in case of medicine, China was ahead of Europe well into the 19th century. There is a good chance China will be a technology superpower AGAIN in the next 10-20 years.

  376. tamo says:
    @sher singh

    Hey, shit head, you’d better improve your English. It’s hard to understand you. I’m not interested in Indians, Hindus or Sikhs.

    Oh, I’m shaking in my boots !! I guess you are another big mouth sikh asshole. Go fuck yourself, lol.

    • Replies: @sher singh
  377. sher singh says:
    @tamo

    Ching Chang Ching I’ll rape you with this thing||

    • Replies: @tamo
  378. antibeast says:
    @tamo

    The Qing Dynasty never built any public works such as the Sui and Tang Dynasties’ water canals nor the Song and Ming Dynasties’ shipbuilding industries. All they did was to build opulent palaces such as the Yuanming Yuan which is the Chinese equivalent to the Palace at Versailles. As for foreign trade, Emperor Qianlong implemented the one port commercial system (” 一口通商”) in 1757 known as the ‘Canton System’ whereby all foreign trade with China was restricted to just one port in Canton. The reason why China enjoyed immense wealth during this period had to do with Chinese traders doing business with the Spaniards via the Spanish Galleon Trade, not with what the Qing Dynasty itself did. The Qing Dynasty had previously dealt with the Iberian Powers (Spain and Portugal) by restricting foreign trade to Macao before the establishment of the Canton System.

    The UK which was formed as a result of the union of England and Scotland in 1707 began its rapid ascent only AFTER the Industrial Revolution in 1760, finally surpassing the Catholic Powers (Spain, Portugal and France) at the end of the Seven Year’s War. By the time of Lord Macartney’s visit to Beijing, the British economy had surpassed that of China with exports of its machine-made cotton textiles conquering world markets.

    Western historiography ignores the fact that even the Iberian Powers (Spain and Portugal) — the most powerful Western countries in Europe which ruled much of the Americas during the 16th, 17th and 18th centuries — never industrialized their economies until the 20th century. If the Orientalist logic purporting to explain China’s failure to industrialize its economy during the 19th century is true, then how come Occidental countries such as Spain and Portugal failed to industrialize their economies despite accumulating vast wealth from colonizing the Americas?

    The reason is simple: the European Renaissance and the Scientific Revolution never affected Spain and Portugal as they remained medieval feudalist States until the collapse of their colonial Empires in the Americas during the 19th century. Without such a CULTURAL REVOLUTION, Spain and Portugal remained mired in the medieval feudalism of the Medieval West. And that explains why Qing China which remained mired in medieval feudalism failed to industrialize its economy despite accumulating vast wealth from foreign trade via the Spanish Galleon Trade.

    In other words, Qing China was in the same metaphysical boat as the Iberian Powers, both were mired in medieval feudalism which inhibited them from participating in the modernizing world around them. And THAT was the reason, not some mumbo jumbo about the innate superiority of the West.

    • Replies: @tamo
    , @Philip Owen
  379. tamo says:
    @sher singh

    hey, stupid towel head, why don’t you try your sister? what a douchebag !!!

    • Replies: @sher singh
  380. @Blade

    You wrote the following:

    Also, I am just presenting opinions on why the Western political bodies introduced globalism and multiculturalism. I am not saying whether I support them or not. So if you have better explanations, go on and share them.

    This implies that you had no better explanations than those “one weird fix” explanations.

    It also told me to do what I did!

    a) Globalism and multiculturalism are tools to continue and extend Western hegemony,
    b) Multiculturalism is a part of globalism,
    c) End goal is to ensure high material wealth in the Western countries,

    What do you mean by “globalism”?

    What do you mean by “multiculturalism”?

    What do you mean by “Western hegemony”?

    You are also presenting two different “end goals” and don’t seem to realise it.

    Furthermore, it is an example of another “one weird fix” argument. Your best bet would be to make your argument for the United States, not “the West”. It would also be sensible for you to not lump all “immigration” together, but I suppose we can say you just meant the primary point of much immigration.

    You might notice that I actually did point to all of this in my original reply!

    To steelman your “argument” and break your word salad, I’ll make it for you, but better 😉

    1. The United States government and elite has enjoyed being the most important in the world for decades and really want to keep that position, for various reasons.

    2. Were there no China, their position would be certain.

    3. China’s primary advantage over the US is that it has 1.4 billion people, who also feel reasonably culturally secure together.

    4. With 1.4 billion people they only need to attain a middling level of economic development to surpass the United States in economic power.

    5. The US is, therefore, filling itself up with immigrants to compete and have them feel reasonably culturally secure. This is a big challenge.

    6. Those immigrants also create links between the United States and their origin countries, which, as they’re richer than those in their origin countries, may give the US some sense of hosting the elites of those countries and therefore having some control. Immigration + US-led multilaterism gives the US an effective population that may even surpass China’s.

    7. Multiculturalism, which is pure tolerance plus the attempt to quieten formerly dominant voices in order to make new voices feel more comfortable and heard and secure, is partly designed to facilitate this process. It is intended to help the new immigrants to feel bought into the US power structure, but also to help their origin ​countries to feel bought in.

    Personally, I find that, while this is a grand strategic justification for the US elites encouraging immigration and pushing “multiculturalism,” people don’t really work this way, no matter how much they like pretending that they, or the Chinese, do. It isn’t really possible for one and people aren’t really and consistently motivated by these sorts of plans.

    It is instead a plausible rationalisation for the current situation and merely what people tend to tell themselves after the facts have become obvious.

    On the other hand, I do think that this represents some of the incentives and thoughts of the US elites and provides a small part of the answer for why US policy is as it is in this area.

    • Replies: @Blade
  381. @Dmitry

    Yeah though Volvo does most of the ngineering so thats why I didnt include them. In the same way VW gets trickle down tech from Audi amd Porsche – Geely vehicles get trickle down from Volvo – i would expect Polestar to trickle down to Geely vehicles as well. I was not a Geely fan so I dont know how much of their engineering is done in China or if Polestar has since. Since Tesla and VW nd even suppliers like ZF (German) now have R&D in China – I would expect that to change. But I rate Polestar as Swiss.
    But yes – I have heard they have interesting vehicles. But yeah sit in a German or Japanese car – and now even Chinese cars and you will see Tesla build quality is poor.

  382. sher singh says:
    @tamo

    Dog eater, without the Buddha you’d still be trying to eat your’s||

    • Replies: @tamo
  383. @tamo

    You are correct except one thing. Many western scholars do know those things. That is why the US and EU are meeting right now to discuss ways to stifle China’s technological advancements. I forget he dumb name of the forum but it is current news so it should be easy to find. It has little to do with “communism”. They are both showering Vietnam with lots of love right now. They know the history and fear the scale coupled with inventiveness of Chinese. They also know China doesnt want to export communism. That is just the excuse.
    I have always been anti communism – but the simple fact is the CPC has led and is leading China into another renaissance – as usually happens every few centuries. The idiots in Hong Kong and Taiwan should get over it and either embrace it or migrate.

    • Agree: tamo
  384. @sher singh

    Khalistan:

    http://www.khalistan-affairs.org/home/pressreleaseApril3,2008.aspx

    China ought to ‘smile’ at the beleaguered Sikhs if it wants to immediately nullify India’s subversive pre-Olympiad activity Delhi is currently pushing, in cahoots with the Dalai Lama, to demonize China

    Washington D.C. Thursday April 03, 2008:

    In a press release issued today, the Director of the Washington-based Khalistan Affairs Center, Dr. Amarjit Singh, quoted from his weekly column dated April 2, 2008, (carried by numerous Punjabi newspapers catering to the Sikh diaspora in North America and Europe) which has urged China to immediately ‘smile’ at the Sikh movement for an independent buffer state of Khalistan and also support the aspirations of Christian Nagas for an independent buffer state of Nagalim. ( To read the weekly Khalistan Calling column dated April 2, 2008 please click at the following link:- > /home/khalistancalling/2008/april02.aspx <)

    Such a wise and practical step, at this point in time, by China, Dr. Amarjit Singh believes, is in China's interest. He claims it will immediately take the wind out of India’s current anti-China subversive activity in which the Dalai Lama and his cohorts have been mustered world wide by Indian Intelligence Agencies. This covert campaign, some Indian ‘hawks’ hope, will in the short term demonize China, and embarrass it in advance of the XXIX Olympiad, scheduled to be held in Beijing from August 8 to 24, 2008. In the long term they hope India will be able to milch concessions from China on the border dispute by playing this Tibet card at this point in time. Some hope!

    India’s neighbors perhaps do not realize that the world’s 26 Million muscular Sikhs (3 million free and prosperous in the diaspora and 23 million captive in Indian occupied Punjab) all of whom recite a daily prayer for the return of Sikh rule (‘Raj Karayga Khalsa’) are India’s ‘Achilles heal’. The Indian rulers, an evil nexus of the minority Brahmin and Bania castes (who are no more than 4 % of India’s population) know the muscular Sikhs and are therefore, terrified of the day when a neighbor of India (like China) decides to ‘smile’ at the Sikhs by noticing their aspiration for a buffer state of Khalistan. An economically viable, water and food rich, buffer Sikh state East of the Pakistan border (and West of the Chinese border) a la the brave Nagas who are also fighting for an independent oil-rich buffer state of Nagalim, West of Myanmar, East of Bangladesh and South of the Chinese border. There is no doubt that a friendly Chinese interest in acquiring more information about the proposed buffer state of Khalistan would electrify the Sikhs and terrify the Indian rulers into putting a quick end to not only Dalai Lama's provocative theatrics but also put a stop to Indian covert activity in Tibet and Dharamsala pronto, long before the start of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad being held in Beijing from 8 to 24 August, 2008.

    Press Release – April 3, 2008

    Perhaps unfair to the Sikhs, China is not really interested in poking its fingers into other countries’ domestic business unless madly provoked!

  385. tamo says:
    @antibeast

    You are not telling me anything I don’t already know about the rapidly declining 19th century Qing dynasty. But in the High Qing Era under the rules of Emperors of Kangxi, Yongzheng, Qianlong from 1662 to 1796; Qing dynasty developed enormous market economy that was bigger and more sophisticated than Europe.

    Qing dynasty kept taxes low and encouraged not only it’s massive internal commerce but also foreign trade. But the 19th century post-Opium War demoralized Qing dynasty was a shell of it’s former glorious self of the 18th century.

    Andre Gunder Frank, Bin Wong, Kenneth Pomeranz are so-called California School revisionists. who scholarly engage in the re-interpretation of the historical record.

    It usually means challenging the established, accepted or traditional EURO-CENTRIC views held by other scholars about a historical event, introducing contrary evidence, or reinterpreting the motivations and decisions of the people involved.

    The revision of the historical record can reflect new discoveries of fact, evidence, and interpretation, which then ends up revising history. In dramatic cases, revisionism involves a reversal of old EURO-CENTRIC judgment’.

    When we think about the kind of trade taking place across the world in the 1600s and 1700s, and we recognize that Chinese finished goods are going to Europe in return for Western silver, this shouldn’t be too great a surprise, if we go back to the Song dynasty that had the most vibrant commercial economy in the world.

    The Song dynasty’s improvement of agricultural technologies to raise the yields of rice and other grains and crops and extensive use of sophisticated watermills in many industries and there was also the development of transportation technologies to take advantage of river and canal transport and also using sophisticated metallurgical technologies to increase iron and steel production. that Europe couldn’t match until the coming of the Industrial Revolution.

    Those developments started much earlier in China than they did anywhere else in the world. So in the year 1100, the most developed economy in the world was certainly in Song China.

    That remained in place for many centuries. Eurasian economies grew and contracted but the Chinese economy remained a very productive economy until the end of the 18th century so that when trade started to take place between China and Europe, fueled by the American silver that the Europeans were bringing to China, it was not surprising that the Chinese economy was a very productive economy

    According to Ken Pomeranz, when we compare food supply per capita between Qing dynasty’s Lower Yangzi delta and England, the most developed area of Europe in 1750, it is roughly comparable.

    Cloth production per capita would again be very close. And those were the two most important sectors of the economy: food and textiles. They were the two largest sectors. Wages seem to be roughly comparable, though it’s a little bit deceptive because in England what we’re talking about as we get towards the end of the eighteenth century is really wages.

    In the urban areas of England, workers get payed in cash. This was pretty much true in the cities in China. But the Chinese farmers who owned their own a farm and had a loom in the house where the wife or wife and daughter worked.

    So it’s earnings from their own self-employment compared to English wages seemed to be pretty comparable. I think Pomeranz did a good job of giving us an excellent overview of the pre-modern China under the High Qing Era in the 18th century.

    I’m going to quote or paraphrase some lines from pages 190-191 of ReORIENT by Andre Gunder Frank for the truth about so-called SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION and it’s alleged effects on technology.

    Quoting Steven Shapin’s study of the subject, authoritative observers from Francis Bacon to Thomas Kuhn conclude that , whether revolutionary or not, these scientific advances appear to have had NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON TCHNOLOGY whatsoever and certainly NONE ON THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION which didn’t even begin until a century later.’

    Bacon had observed” the overmuch credit that hath been given unto authors in science for alleged contributions to arts mechanical and their first deviser”.

    According to Thomas Kuhn, after serious inquiries into so -called scientific revolution , the real scientific revolution didn’t begin until the 19th century.

    Also Steven Shapin says “it now appears unlikely that the high theory of the scientific revolution had any substantial effect on economically useful technology in either the 17th century or the 18th century.

    Robert Adams states that after reviewing any and all relations between technology and science, including so-called 17th century scientific revolution, he concludes that SCIENTISTS and THEIR SCIENCE made NO SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO NEW TECHNOLOGY BEFORE THE 19TH CENTURY. These are just some of examples about the NON-SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION in the 17th century.

    I’m going to quote some more from Frank’s ReORIENT. Robert Adams writes that few if any salient technologies of the Industrial Revolution can be thought as science- based in any direct sense,

    They can be better be described AS CRAFT BASED in important ways. and he concludes that SCIENTIFIC THEORIES were relatively UNIMPORTANT in connection with TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION UNTIL THE 19TH CENTURY.

    Throughout the 18th century in Britain, only 16% of 680 scientists, 18% of 240 engineers , and only 8% of “notable applied scientists and engineers” were at any time connected with Oxford or Cambridge; moreover, over 70% of the latter had no university education at all.

    Adams and others trace technological advances primarily to CRAFTSMANSHIP, ENTREPRENEURSHIP. Indeed, Adams credits technology with far more contribution to the advancement of science than the reverse .

    The main reason the nascent scientific theories couldn’t contribute to developing new technologies was the lack of reliable experimental devices testing scientific theories in the 17th and 18th centuries. But the Industrial Revolution solved the problem.

    So in other words, technological developments during the Industrial Revolution contributed to the advancement of science not vice versa.
    So in a nutshell, science didn’t contribute much to the development of new technologies until the 19th century.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
  386. tamo says:
    @sher singh

    Hey shit-eater. why don’t you try your own mother next time, then you will be a true MF, lol !!!

  387. @kzn

    The order was about big enough to take back all the returns from overseas airlines that had previously accepted planes. The plane was mde to take Snecma engines but the subsidies offered to bribe foreign airlines into accpetance required Russian engines. The Russian aerospace industry does not have the logistics to deliver the many spare spare parts for engine repair so a large proportion of the overseas fleet was grounded at any one time. The planes were returned. Aeroflot took them on with the hope that parts could be supplied as required in Russia. Also all new planes are overweight. The SJ100 was no exception.

    Civilian jet engines are a different proposition from military ones. Maintenance and availability matter, not 10 minutes of maximum thrust. Russia has a long way to go on this. As for larger planes; a passenger jet is not a bomber with seats in the bomb bay.

  388. sher singh says:
    @tamo

    动态网自由门 天安門 天安门 法輪功 李洪志 Free Tibet 六四天安門事件 The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 天安門大屠殺 The Tiananmen Square Massacre 反右派鬥爭 The Anti-Rightist Struggle 大躍進政策 The Great Leap Forward 文化大革命 The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution 人權 Human Rights 民運 Democratization 自由 Freedom 獨立 Independence 多黨制 Multi-party system 台灣 臺灣 Taiwan Formosa 中華民國 Republic of China 西藏 土伯特 唐古特 Tibet 達賴喇嘛 Dalai Lama 法輪功 Falun Dafa 新疆維吾爾自治區 The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region 諾貝爾和平獎 Nobel Peace Prize 劉暁波 Liu Xiaobo 民主 言論 思想 反共 反革命 抗議 運動 騷亂 暴亂 騷擾 擾亂 抗暴 平反 維權 示威游行 李洪志 法輪大法 大法弟子 強制斷種 強制堕胎 民族淨化 人體實驗 肅清 胡耀邦 趙紫陽 魏京生 王丹 還政於民 和平演變 激流中國 北京之春 大紀元時報 九評論共産黨 獨裁 專制 壓制 統一 監視 鎮壓 迫害 侵略 掠奪 破壞 拷問 屠殺 活摘器官 誘拐 買賣人口 遊進 走私 毒品 賣淫 春畫 賭博 六合彩 天安門 天安门 法輪功 李洪志 Winnie the Pooh 劉曉波动态网自由门

    • Disagree: tamo
  389. @tamo

    I strongly agree about the English Industrial Revolution having nothing to do with applied science. The 2nd industrial revolution, chemistry and electricity, was very different but the train was already steaming down the tracks by then.

    On a technical note. 1750 was actually a particularly bad era for English food production. 50 years either side, food was more widely available. Rural wages were low outside specialist textile districts (so a Chinese or Indian peasant may well have been better fed). However, urban and industrial wages and production were high. So high that food was imported to make good local shortfalls.

    • Thanks: tamo
  390. @antibeast

    The Spanish, Portugese, early modern Chinese and come to that Moghul, Russian and Turkish economies were tribute takers. Tribute taking and rent extraction was a 6000 year old model that was almost completely static. Merchants profits were at the whim of the state. The Dutch and British mostly traded. The French and Danes were a bit more mixed although all 4 happily took over Spanish plantations in the Caribbean but in a more market focussed manner. So, yes, I agree with your thesis. The question is not “Why was China/others late to industrialize?”. The question is “Why and how did Japan or anyone else do so?”. Egypt for example made valiant efforts at one point by buying foreign machines to make cotton. Part of that answer seems to be technical education. The two countries that did successfully industrialize in the 1st half of the 20th century, Japan and Russia, both put big efforts into technical education in the last half of the 19th C. China did not

    • Replies: @antibeast
  391. @tamo

    动态网自由门 天安門 天安门 法輪功 李洪志 Free Tibet 六四天安門事件 The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 天安門大屠殺 The Tiananmen Square Massacre 反右派鬥爭 The Anti-Rightist Struggle 大躍進政策 The Great Leap Forward 文化大革命 The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution 人權 Human Rights 民運 Democratization 自由 Freedom 獨立 Independence 多黨制 Multi-party system 台灣 臺灣 Taiwan Formosa 中華民國 Republic of China 西藏 土伯特 唐古特 Tibet 達賴喇嘛 Dalai Lama 法輪功 Falun Dafa 新疆維吾爾自治區 The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region 諾貝爾和平獎 Nobel Peace Prize 劉暁波 Liu Xiaobo 民主 言論 思想 反共 反革命 抗議 運動 騷亂 暴亂 騷擾 擾亂 抗暴 平反 維權 示威游行 李洪志 法輪大法 大法弟子 強制斷種 強制堕胎 民族淨化 人體實驗 肅清 胡耀邦 趙紫陽 魏京生 王丹 還政於民 和平演變 激流中國 北京之春 大紀元時報 九評論共産黨 獨裁 專制 壓制 統一 監視 鎮壓 迫害 侵略 掠奪 破壞 拷問 屠殺 活摘器官 誘拐 買賣人口 遊進 走私 毒品 賣淫 春畫 賭博 六合彩 天安門 天安门 法輪功 李洪志 Winnie the Pooh 劉曉波动态网自由门

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Disagree: tamo
  392. antibeast says:
    @Philip Owen

    My thesis is that some kind of a CULTURAL REVOLUTION took place in England which allowed tinkerers, craftsmen and inventors to experiment with new types of devices. Most inventions in the First Industrial Revolution in England were not based on scientific research but on a ‘trial-and-error’ type of empirical experimentation which is the sort of tasks that inquisitive minds like to do.

    If you’re a Spaniard living in Spain, there was very little incentive — financial, social or otherwise — to try to invent new types of devices because the CULTURAL environment in Spain disdained such type of industrial endeavors. Instead, Spaniards who wanted to make fortunes left for the Spanish colonies in the Americas where they could rule over Indio serfs or African slaves. This was the principal method by which the Spaniards extracted the natural wealth of their colonies in the Americas.

    England had a very different CULTURAL environment at the onset of the Industrial Revolution. In order to compete against cheap Indian imports, English industrialists had to invest their capital into improving their cotton textile mills so that less people would be needed to man the spindles while increasing production capacity with lower operating costs. An Englishmen with technical skills could make a fortune inventing new types of machinery which could be sold to the mushrooming factories dotting England. This created a virtuous cycle with new forms of industrial technology improving production efficiency while increasing production capacity which produced more capital to invest in improving the technology.

    Both Spain and England oversaw colonial Empires which extracted the natural wealth of their colonies but their CULTURAL environment differed in the way their societies worked in their respective economies. Spaniards made fortunes from extracting the natural wealth of their overseas colonies but they ended up spending those fortunes on their extravagant lifestyles while the Englishmen invested their capital in industrial pursuits.

    That was the same predicament that afflicted the Qing Dynasty as the Manchu rulers spent the national wealth of China on extravagant lifestyles as exemplified by their opulent palaces, instead of building railroads which is what the British did in India. At the time of India’s independence, the British had built more than twice as many railways (in km) in the British Raj as the Qing Dynasty, Republican China and Japanese Manchuria had built in China during the same period, COMBINED!!! In fact, British-ruled India was so far ahead in railways that it took until the 1980s for China to catch up with India!!!

    Here’s a graph showing the disparity in the railway network between India and China:

    Things began to change for China only AFTER the Hans succeeded in overthrowing the Manchus following the Xinhai Revolution. Then and only then did China started industrializing its economy. The difference between the Manchus and the Hans was CULTURAL because the Manchus only cared about spending money for aristocratic pursuits while the Hans sought to create wealth by industrial pursuits.

    • Agree: sudden death
  393. @Blade

    China will not receive a lot of Nobel Prizes unless it kneels before the West. I don’t get the obsession with Nobel Prize as if it is the standard for scientific or artistic success anyway.

    There is already a growing realization and consensus across the STEM field that Nobel nominations and prizes, though carrying that ephemeral aura of “prestige”, are in fact not reflective of actual scientific contribution.

    A PhD would still not turn down a Nobel Prize, the same as a non-American director would not really refuse an Oscar for “Best Foreign Film”. Why would you? It costs nothing to accept, and looks nifty on the CV. At least for now.

    Both the Nobel Prize and the Oscars serve much the same purpose – not to recognize talent, rather to claim to be the sole arbiters of accomplishment in Science/Culture on the one hand, and in Cinema on the other.

    But funding for science/STEM is increasingly skeptical of the value of Nobels (both nominations and prizes) They are seen as politicized, cliquey, rife with nepotism and tribalism, unjustly favoring certain ethno-cultural groups and having little to do with advancing hard STEM .

    Oscars make nice mantle pieces. though.

    • Agree: tamo, AnonfromTN
  394. On an important side note: Thank you to Mr. Karlin. Your provocative title has stimulated an animated discussion even though many here would disagree with the premise of “China Isn’t Going To Make It”.

    China is neither the unstoppable Leviathan nor the vulnerable sick man. It does have shortcomings, but perhaps outweighed by truly mind-boggling realization of its potential.

    A runner does not have to be this infallible terminator-robot to be a superb athlete. He is finite, can trip, and can fall. But since the fundamental potential is so excellent, he can dust himself off and resume running.

    So it is with China. They seem to have been doing it for at least 4,000, if not 5,000 years. As to the Chinese being unable to be creative, or to Chinese society being unable to balance creative chaos with stability that merely hums along, we shall see. They are not so rigid as many stereotype them to be.

    To outsiders from the developing world, Russia seems very European indeed. It has imbibed much European culture, many concepts and once aspired to be European (maybe not so much now). Yet, probe a little deeper, and Russians are very different from Germans or Frenchmen. Different, unique cultures.

    To simply say that the cultural patterns of say Japan and Korea can be a template to understand China is probably simplistic. I’ll go further, a mistake. If anything, the Mongolian, Manchurian, Tibetan and Turkic cultures are closer to China’s, due to long interaction.

    Japan and S. Korea did develop before China, but they are societies attuned to following in the footsteps of success – at first China in the pre-modern, then the West in the modern era. Their mind sets and paradigms are their own.

    China is very different. They clearly created their own original civilization, and set the pace for thousands of years prior to the European surge. Too early to say whether or not China will “make it”.

    • Agree: tamo
    • Thanks: antibeast
  395. @tamo

    They were usually parallel developments, not copies.

    The Qing example shows that the key is not technology, far less science (look at the Arabs) but institutions to reward private enterprise. When the profits of the merchant have no protection from Mandarins (and Nawabs) and no safe way to reinvest, enterprise is stifled. The Mongols have much to answer for.

    • Replies: @tamo
  396. tamo says:
    @Philip Owen

    Before the Industrial Revolution, technology transfer was overwhelmingly one way, from China to Europe. A lot of Chinese inventions and ideas were copied by Europeans after they were transmitted to Europe directly or indirectly by so-called silk road and maritime silk route.

    In the High Qing Era from 1662 to 1796, the Qing government fostered private enterprise with no commercial taxes. It’s no wonder that the Qing economy was the biggest in the world with high living standards to go with.

    China was ahead of Europe in technology until the coming of the Industrial Revolution specially in the areas of metallurgy, shipbuilding, ceramics, deep drilling for oil and gas, textiles, printing, agriculture etc.
    So Qing government utilized all these excellent technologies to increase productivity in the 18th century. But the 19th century Qing dynasty was another story.

    Europe overtook China in astronomy in the 16th century and physics and math in the 17th century but China was still ahead of Europe in magnetic science until the 17th century and in the case of chemistry, botany until the late 18th century. In medicine, China was still ahead of Europe well into the 19th century.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  397. BB753 says:

    Always bet on the Chinese.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  398. antibeast says:
    @tamo

    Europe overtook China in astronomy in the 16th century and physics and math in the 17th century but China was still ahead of Europe in magnetic science until the 17th century and in the case of chemistry, botany until the late 18th century. In medicine, China was still ahead of Europe well into the 19th century.

    That was true only for a few Western European countries but not for the Iberian Powers (Spain and Portugal) which remained mired in medieval feudalism well until the 20th century. There were no Blaise Pascals, Isaac Newtons, Leonardo da Vincis, amongst the Iberians who built splendid Cathedrals everywhere they went but did not make any scientific discoveries nor invent anything new. By the time the Italian Renaissance, which had started in Italy, spread to the rest of Western Europe, the Iberians were busy colonizing the Americas, forming the largest Empire known to Europe. But the European Renaissance bypassed the Iberian Powers as did the Scientific Revolution which ushered in the CULTURAL REVOLUTION now known as ‘Age of Reason’ in the West which was rapidly catching up with the East in Science, Mathematics, Medicine, Astronomy, Engineering, etc.

    Thus, what we have is a geopolitical situation where the most powerful countries in Europe were two Iberian Powers — Spain and Portugal — which lagged behind its neighbors in scientific pursuits and industrial endeavors. When the Industrial Revolution finally arrived in England, the UK became the richest and most powerful country in Europe, surpassing the two Iberian Powers which failed to modernize their societies and industrialize their economies, remaining backward, feudal and medieval until well unto the 20th century. That was the exact situation faced by Qing China which failed to modernize Chinese society and industrialize the Chinese economy unlike Meiji Japan which did.

    • Replies: @tamo
  399. Mr. Hack says:

    “China Isn’t Going to Make-it and Neither is the US”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/i-refuse-to-work-chinas-lying-flat-culture-comes-to-america_4024854.html

    AaronB has been vindicated!

  400. Mr. Hack says:

    “China Isn’t Going to Make-it and Neither is the US”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/i-refuse-to-work-chinas-lying-flat-culture-comes-to-america_4024854.html

    Fascinating short piece exposing a pardigm shift in feelings about work – in both China and the US!

    • Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  401. tamo says:
    @antibeast

    For your information, Iberian peninsular was much more advanced than many parts of Europe long before the Renaissance due to the almost 800 years of advanced Islamic rule that heavily influenced Spain and Portugal.

    From Spain, European scholars translated in Latin the advanced Islamic science, mathematics, clock-making, etc that spread throughout Europe.

    Portugal and Spain learned a lot of navigational technologies, geographical features, current movements around Africa from the Islamic scholars,

    So this was the main reason both Portugal and Spain were the first European countries to embark on the voyages of discovery in the 15th century, not relatively backward England at the time. Later newly powerful Dutch and English eclipsed both Portuguese and Spanish.

    You should remember that in the 17th and 18th centuries, Manchu-ruled Qing dynasty DOUBLED the Chinese territory by bringing in Manchuria, Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang that previous Han- dominated Ming dynasty couldn’t.

    Also the same time period, Qing dynasty doubled Chinese population without sacrificing the living standards while making the Qing economy the biggest in the world due to mainly relative peace and sound economic management.

    But the 19th century Qing dynasty was another matter. Even though very weakened Qing dynasty wanted to modernize China, it was sidetracked by terrible wars, rebellions and encroachments by European powers and Japan and also half-hearted reforms.
    In the terrible situation of almost constant wars and rebellions the Qing government faced, I doubt any reform policy could have succeeded.

    On the other hand, Japan could succeed in it’s modernization due to the relative peace and all-out reform policy during the Meiji Period.

    Also after the fall of Qing dynasty in 1912, The Han-dominated Republic of China couldn’t modernized China because it also like the 19th century Qing dynasty, was best by war(against Japan),rebellion(communists), warlordism without lasting peace.

    But finally in 1949, the Han -dominated CPC established the PRC and it looks like China will be a first class country AGAIN in the very near future with the size of economy and technology to go with as China was before the coming of the Industrial Revolution, due to relative peace and superb economic management by the Han-dominated CPC.

    Where are all the Mongols, Manchus, Uighurs, Tibetans ? they are in Han- dominated PRC.
    More Mongols live in PRC than in the Republic of Mongolia and Manchus have almost disappeared.

    Portuguese and Spanish were the first European colonial powers then eclipsed by Dutch and English.
    Now Europe and America are in decline and China is rising AGAIN.

    It all means that there is always ebb and flow in national or ethnic power over time and nothing is set in stone.

    • Replies: @Deep Thought
    , @antibeast
  402. @tamo

    Countries rise and fall and not necessarily do so in phase. By China’s experience, a well governed dynasty lasts about 300 years. The first dynasty of Amelika is approaching 300 years!

    • Agree: tamo, showmethereal
  403. @Mr. Hack

    Reading CIA rags won’t inform you, old chap.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
  404. Mr. Hack says:
    @mulga mumblebrain

    You’re still reading “Mad Magazine”? 🙂

  405. Blade says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    This implies that you had no better explanations than those “one weird fix” explanations.

    No, it doesn’t imply that. Not even remotely. You need to work on your comprehension. Everything has more than one aspect to it, but also dominant or important parts. I am explaining why the West pushes for globalism and multiculturalism.

    What do you mean by “globalism”? … “multiculturalism?”

    Nothing new. You can also deduce it from comments so far.

    What do you mean by “Western hegemony”?

    – Forcing Western values on non-Western societies,
    – Coercing other societies to form their policies based on the interests of Western nations, rather than their own (see China, Japan, and many other examples),
    – In the past, this was achieved through plain violence, plundering, and robbing, today it is more sophisticated,

    You are also presenting two different “end goals” and don’t seem to realise it.

    I am not presenting two end goals without realizing, your reading comprehension is weak. All of these policies are for continuing and guaranteeing the prosperity of the Western bloc. If they were self-sufficient I don’t think they’d care that much about continuing the hegemony.

    Your best bet would be to make your argument for the United States, not “the West”.

    The US is just the leader, not “the West.” The fact that they may have disagreements here and there doesn’t mean they don’t act as a bloc against others (see China, AUKUS, five-eyes, EU-Russia relations, and more). They move as a bloc, it is actually commonly understood. It is strange you suggest the US and Europe hadn’t been on the same page regarding Western hegemony, globalism, and multiculturalism.

    1. The United States government and elite has enjoyed being the most important in the world for decades and really want to keep that position, for various reasons…

    This and the following arguments contain some truth, but fallacious as well. You are confusing correlation for causation. Your argument is also anachronistic. Because buried in their own arrogance, none of the leaders of the West expected China to turn into what it is. They thought it was “the end of history,” when the USSR was collapsed and that China would just be a big Japan (subtle racism of that opinion…). By your argument, the US must have expected all things that happened in the past few decades because they didn’t start immigration policy in the last ten years. As for your point number 6, that’s basically what I suggested earlier. However, all your points, including the 7th also fail to explain why would Europe adopt the same agenda.

    I’ll make it for you, but better

    Thanks for the attempt, but you actually didn’t do anything better for me since you took a different position and went on to explain your opinion, but hey that’s a step forward.

    I have to say that your position is extremely naive, and requires much ignorance of history, power, and politics. The reality is coercion, and millions and millions of dead people in Algeria, Poland, South Asia, South America, and Africa. Well, anyway, I think we can end it here since you accidentally explained your position while trying to make a better argument for me. 🙂

  406. @Blade

    However, all your points, including the 7th also fail to explain why would Europe adopt the same agenda.

    As I said, you’re a “one weird trick” person. You both think that Europe actually has adopted the same agenda and that it did for the same reasons. The first assumption is far too lacking in nuance and the second is stupid.

    You can deny it all you want, but you keep doing it, while saying little of substance otherwise.

    I mean your worldview requires that France and the US’s immigration policies are the same, when they are radically different, that they are for the same reasons, which is patently false, and that they have the same policies on multiculturalism, which is ludicrous.

    Given how much the two countries influence each other culturally and their historical links, it is remarkable how different their approaches are. But I assume you don’t know this because you just have the one hammer that you need to swing. I hope it makes you feel better.

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • Replies: @sher singh
  407. sher singh says:
    @Blade

    none of the leaders of the West expected China to turn into what it is. They thought it was “the end of history,” when the USSR was collapsed and that China would just be a big Japan

    They still do, remove the CCP & get liberalism ala the Taliban post 9/11. They never learn, nobody does as elite cultures require cohesion & in-group bias ie ideologies are reformed by replacing elites.

    The reality is coercion, and millions and millions of dead people in Algeria, Poland, South Asia, South America, and Africa.

    All in the name of progress, we ended slavery & brought the light of human rights.
    Sir, I would like to inform you that you are in fact arguing with a woman.
    https://akarlin.com/2009/09/struggle-europe-mankind/

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @Blade
  408. sher singh says:
    @Triteleia Laxa

    They both work along the Spic-Nig cycle||
    USA already had nigs, while France being close to Algeria had Spics (menial wage labourers)||

    The Spic-Nig cycle has brought untold prosperity & progress to mankind, I see no reason to stop||
    With the booming nig population, we will have to genetically engineer Spics, Karlin refers to this as ‘transhumanism’

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  409. Blade says:
    @sher singh

    Sir, I would like to inform you that you are in fact arguing with a woman.

    That explains it, thanks for letting me know. 🙂

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
  410. @Blade

    And yet her comments are consistently better than those of either of you two. Sad!

    • Agree: Not Raul
    • LOL: A123
    • Replies: @Blade
    , @sher singh
  411. antibeast says:
    @tamo

    The Moorish Renaissance took place in al-Andalus, preceding the Italian Renaissance by at least five centuries, and centered in Corboba, then the largest and richest city in Europe, with paved streets and street lamps before London and Paris had any. Moorish Spain was home to the first universities established in Europe, before Oxford and Cambridge, with 17 of them compared to just 2 in the rest of Europe, which turned al-Andalus as it was called into the center of Islamic Science in Europe.

    But all that changed after the Catholic Monarchs — Queen Isabella I of Castile and King Ferdinand II of Aragon — completed their Reconquista and reunification of Spain in 1492 which ended seven centuries of Moorish rule in the Iberian Peninsula. What followed next was the infamous Spanish Inquisition during which the Catholic Monarchs expelled Jews and Muslims from Spain while waging religious wars during the Counter-Reformation against Protestants in Europe. The European Renaissance never reached Spain and Portugal, neither did the Industrial nor Scientific Revolutions.

    Western historiography ignores this history of the medieval West as represented by the Iberian Powers while promoting the ‘Age of Reason’ version depicting the Scientific Revolution as the culmination of the Italian Renaissance. The reality was that the Iberian Powers had been the richest and most powerful States in Western Europe for almost three centuries but they never represented the ‘modern West’ in the ‘Age of Reason’ which came about only in the 19th century.

    • Agree: tamo
    • Replies: @antibeast
  412. A123 says: • Website
    @Blade

    I am explaining why the West pushes for globalism and multiculturalism.

    What do you mean by “globalism”? … “multiculturalism?”

    Nothing new. You can also deduce it from comments so far.

    What do you mean by “Western hegemony”?

    – Forcing Western values on non-Western societies

    It can be hard to follow what you are writing because it is plagued by what appear to be internal contradictions. You may find that you can get more people on your side if your stop using the term Western.

    Globalism = Anti-Western = Exporting the West’s wealth out of the West.

    Multiculturalism = Anti-Western = Systematic devaluation of Western culture and traditional Christian values.

    What you seem to be complaining about is “Anti-Western Multicultural Hegemony”. Globalists do want to control everything, and Multicultural Hegemony is a threat. As a Westerner, I oppose Globalism.
    ___

    Where TL and others have made a mistake is claiming that the U.S. leads Multiculturalism. The U.S. is actually a follower. Western Europe generally, and Germany specifically, are the unparalleled leaders of Globalism. France has an especially problematic relationship with traditional Western values and Christianity.

    For a while, I had hopes that Germany would improve after Merkel’s departure. Sadly, this seems unlikely. The next German government is on course to be more pro-Globalist and thus advance Anti-Western dogma.

    The spectacular failure of Not-The-President Biden gives the U.S. a chance to save Western culture from Multicultural vandalism. America can restrict immigration and return to Western Anti-Globalist values. It will be much harder for Europe to solve their issues. Sadly, the German people are so oblivious they do not even realize there is a problem.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @Blade
  413. @RoatanBill

    Sorry for not responding sooner. Working the “field” in Texas has kept me busy. I have to laugh at what you say about other governments wishing they could be the same but the reality on the ground, i.e. they’re corrupt but they’re POOR, keeps them at bay. I’ve told people for ages that if you want to be left alone go find yourself a country too poor to fuck with you. They haven’t the money to dick with the citizens so it simply doesn’t happen. Theres corruption everywhere but nowhere is corruption so sophisticated as in the rich countries. A prosperous country has its benefits and also comes with its velvet covered chains. To be honest it’s too damn expensive to stay in any country that screws you so hard while simply going about the mere act of existing. Take Laos for example… as corrupt as any commie dictatorship can be imagined but even amongst all of the blatant stealing and corruption there were pockets of tranquility I found down quiet streets where I ate a delicious German meal (if you can imagine) and downed cold Lao beer in peace. I thought to myself, “Shit… I could do this every day and die a happy man not giving a toss about what happens in Uncle Scam-land”. Being tired from yet another twelve hour shift makes it difficult to put cogent comments together so forgive my rambling.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  414. @InnerCynic

    You are one out of many that can even imagine living outside the gilded cage the US represents. The vast majority are going to put on their Rambo costumes and fight to regain the rights they voted away time and time again via their representatives and the god of democracy. They are going to wait just a bit longer to prepare for what’s coming while the noose is constantly made tighter. Excuse after excuse. LOL

    One has to be in an environment that clashes with the totalitarian first world to see just how onerous it is. I’m more free on the island of a 3rd world country that I ever was in New York or the DFW area from where I escaped. I’m waiting for the cold weather to hit the US and fuel bills, food bills, more mandates, rationing, scarcity and more general insanity to wake up more folks. 99+% will eat shit ladled out by the gov’t rather than change their circumstances.

    • Agree: InnerCynic
  415. Blade says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Putinbot spoke. Speak Putinbot.

  416. Blade says:
    @A123

    It can be hard to follow what you are writing because it is plagued by what appear to be internal contradictions.

    There are no contradictions, you either don’t know the extend some topics so you think something is contradictory, or I cannot explain some things details enough because I don’t want to write books on comment threads.

    You may find that you can get more people on your side if your stop using the term Western.

    It is not important for me to get people on my side. I don’t think so that others appreciate it, I think because I am a man. Both globalism and multiculturalism as policies are Western creations. The fact you think they are bad for the West and were invented by the evil elites that want to destroy the West doesn’t mean it is the truth.

    Globalism = Anti-Western = Exporting the West’s wealth out of the West.

    I already said I was done here, I meant our discussion because you already made all your arguments. Do you have any evidence for “exporting the West’s wealth” due to globalism? No, data points the opposite.

    Multiculturalism = Anti-Western = Systematic devaluation of Western culture and traditional Christian values.

    You talk as if Christianity had been a consideration before multiculturalism. Europeans killed Christianity for good over a century ago (since you keep misunderstanding, it doesn’t mean that there are no Christians left). Ever since then it has been shrinking. Devolving of Western culture has to do with your cultural and economic choices, not because of some minorities who mostly keep to themselves anyway. No one is putting a gun to your heads to watch stupid TV, listen to deranged music, or read garbage books.

    What you seem to be complaining about

    I am not complaining about anything, I just stated facts.

    Where TL and others have made a mistake is claiming that the U.S. leads Multiculturalism.

    I am guessing she is European, you are American. Thus neither of you have the maturity to accept the responsibility and are blaming each other. The reality is that on global policy the West acts as a bloc, the US is just the leader. From an economical perspective, globalism worked so far and generated a tremendous amount of wealth for your upper classes.

    America can restrict immigration and return to Western Anti-Globalist values.

    Restrict immigration, already being done. Return to anti-globalist values? I think you still don’t get that globalism worked very well for the overall wealth of your countries, you can easily verify that. Globalism is not responsible for inequalities within your country. That’s a completely separate topic.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
  417. antibeast says:
    @antibeast

    One more thing: the ‘West’ still lagged behind the ‘East’ in wealth and power during the three-century period from the 16th to the 18th centuries because the Westerners were constantly at war with each other. Among the bloodiest conflicts engulfing the ‘West’ was the religious wars known as the ‘Thirty-Years War’ which was fought by the Catholic South against the Protestant North in response to the Counter-Reformation launched by the Catholic Church. That was true even in Italy where the Spanish Habsburg fought the Habsburg-Valois Wars in order to rule much of the Italian Peninsula. Even the Italian city-states such as Venice, Milan and Florence where the Renaissance took place fought wars against each other. Italy (as well as Germany) became unified States only in the 1870s. So much for the ‘Age of Reason’. LOL!

    Meanwhile, the English and the French fought Europe’s first World War — the Seven’s Years War — which ended with the UK becoming the most powerful country in the ‘West’, supplanting the Iberian Powers, Catholic Spain and Portugal, which had dominated much of the geopolitics of the ‘West’ for the three centuries prior to the 19th century. During that three-century period, England was nothing more than a ‘backwater’ in Europe before the Industrial Revolution propelled the United Kingdom (created in 1707) into becoming the richest country in the ‘West’.

    By way of comparison, the ‘East’ was ruled by wealthy and powerful Empires which includes the Islamic Powers — Ottoman, Safavid and Mughal Empires — as well as Qing China which DOUBLED its territories by MILITARY conquest. The Qing Dynasty fought and won several wars against the Russians and Portuguese while the Ming loyalist Zheng Chenggong fought and won against the Dutch which led to the establishment of Chinese rule over Taiwan. That’s why Spain, then the most powerful country in the ‘West’, never attempted to invade Qing China which remained the richest and most powerful Empire in the world until the 19th century.

    • Agree: sher singh, tamo
    • Replies: @sher singh
    , @sher singh
  418. sher singh says:
    @antibeast

    I just like crypto :shrug: @tamo & @antibeast

  419. sher singh says:
    @antibeast

    Euro per capita higher from the 1300s, no? although, unsure that subsidence = \$400 everywhere
    Euros should respond, we only care about war & weapons||

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Replies: @antibeast
  420. antibeast says:
    @sher singh

    European GDP per capita during that period is meaningless because it did not account for the disparity in wealth between the European Nobility and their European serfs. While the European Nobility amassed much wealth, their European serfs lived lives of miserable existence in a constant state of warfare. The number of Europeans who managed to amass wealth through trade and industry consisting of merchants and artisans was quite small, limited to a few Italian city-states which traded with the Islamic World via the Byzantine Empire and German-speaking trading towns along the Hanseatic League from the 13th to 15th century. That trade with the ‘East’ allowed Italian merchants in city-states like Venice, Milan and Florence to amass their wealth which then financed the Italian Renaissance.

    Contrary to Western historiography, there was nothing ‘civilized’ about the savage ‘West’ prior to the rise of modern European nation-states in the 19th century which finally allowed Western serfs to escape from their miserable existence as cannon fodder for the ‘endless wars’ waged by the European Nobility. Even that century-long period of relative peace, progress and prosperity during the 19th century disappeared following the two World Wars engulfing Europe during the first half of the 20th century. That’s why tens of millions of impoverished European emigres and miserable European refugees fled the Old World of war-torn and famine-stricken Europe for the New World of the Americas and Australia, from the 16th century all the way to the first half of the 20th century.

    Hundred Years War, Thirty Years War, Seven Years War, WWI and WII. Wars, wars and more wars. Such as a small place, so many wars.

    ‘Age of Reason’? LOL!

    • Replies: @sher singh
  421. sher singh says:
    @antibeast

    My religion already calls for Abrahamic genocide, so I don’t need all the stats||
    If you don’t eat cows, we can be friends.

    I’m gonna go lift,
    🙂

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  422. @Blade

    Where TL and others have made a mistake is claiming that the U.S. leads Multiculturalism.

    I never said that. You still haven’t defined “multiculturalism”, probably because then your thesis wouldn’t work. You might also explain what you mean by “lead”? Since there is no formal mechanism for changing rules in one country to match another or even real pressure on this issue, it is odd to talk about “leading”. Perhaps Merkel led the EU in the refugee crisis, but that’s because they dominate the EU. The US has no such power over Germany, which opposed the US over Iraq, loves Nordstream 2 and makes its own deals with China.

    • Replies: @A123
  423. @mulga mumblebrain

    Australia is no longer in any position to lecture other countries about “dictatorship” and “freedom”:

  424. @BB753

    I usually bet on the Dodgers, but you’re right, that could be fun too.

  425. A123 says: • Website
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Where TL and others have made a mistake is claiming that the U.S. leads Multiculturalism.

    I never said that

    That was my quote not Blade’s.

    It was based on your assertion that he should reframe an argument to explicitly target the U.S. Such reframing would have failed because SJW is very Left European phenomenon.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Blade
  426. @Ron Unz

    Even remembering the great fortune that our old friend GC (and his brother) has made which may be in some large part be from Bitcoin I remain as sceptical as I was in 2013 when he told me how Bitcoin in the hands of the Six Sigmas of the Valley was going to destroy Washington DC government (anyway, do to DC what Netflix would do to Hollywood, MOOCS to the Ivies business model etc.) One of the nicest friends of a young cousin who was no academic whiz seems to have made centimillions out of Bitcoin and Ethereum. So, I agree with you. How fast might these tulips lose value? I suspect that the smart guys will make money all the way down as the multitude try to buy the dips. But it really is obvious that Treasuries and Central Banks could, with any necessary legislative support destroy the decentralised private digital money suppliers.

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