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The IMF has released new GDP (PPP) estimates based on the latest International Comparison Program, where price levels are compared relative to the base year 2017 (the previous such survey was in 2011). There were some notable changes (h/t commenter Annatar for many of the observations): China dropped by 18% from $21.0k to $17.2, this... Read More
Alesina, Alberto F., Marlon Seror, David Y. Yang, Yang You, and Weihong Zeng. 2020. “Persistence through Revolutions.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. The descendants of former Chinese landlords and rich peasants earn 16% more than average - despite them being barred from inheriting land or other asse
Toews, Gerhard, and Pierre-Louis Vézina. 2018. “Enemies of the People.” Working Paper. (h/t Emil) The presence of Gulag prisoners - especially concentrations of "enemies of the people", i.e. "politicals" who overwhelmingly hailed from the Tsarist-era educated elites in the professions, aristocracy, and kulaks - had positive long-run effects on development in those regions. This is... Read More
Now to preface this, I have argued extensively that many factors make it unlikely that Belarus institutes a hard anti-Russian zmagarist regime in the event of a successful color revolution against Lukashenko. However, there are also some arguments to that effect which are if not outright false then significantly flawed. Perhaps the biggest one is... Read More
Blavatskyy, Pavlo. 2020. “Obesity of Politicians and Corruption in post‐Soviet Countries.” Economics of Transition and Institutional Change 9 (July): 81. Obesity => corruption QED. "Correlation doesn't equal causation" is for nitpicking losers. Ringing endorsement of powerful Bronze Age Pervert proposal to filter aspiring politicians by physical prowess and physique.
As I argued in my 2011 article on National Wealth and IQ at the Edge: American Exceptionalism, East Asian Mediocrity, the US is surprisingly wealthy for a country for a country of its national IQ, which is respectable but modest by developed country standards. There are many possible reasons for it, which I listed (e.g.... Read More
Shows zero signs of letting up, according to Twitter demographer Cicerone: "Birth data for the first months of 2020: Slight recovery or flatline in Western Europe, Easternmost Europe continues its sharp decline, Hungary stronk, South Korea ever more doomed." My observations: Uzbekistan now has as many births as France & 50% of Russia's. South Korea... Read More
This month's "Coronacast" with Robert Stark and Dain Fitzgerald: Robert Stark is joined with Moscow based Unz Review columnist Anatoly Karlin and Bay Area based blogger Dain Fitzgerald who has written for Spliced Today, Rachel Haywire’s Trigger Warning, and The American Spectator. Follow Anatoly and Dain on Twitter. Topics: Going back to Anatoly’s initial predictions... Read More
Russia has been running at ~100 deaths per day for the past three weeks. As most everywhere (~60% across 14 analyzed countries), this is an underestimate - in Moscow, by a factor of ~3x. Something that we can tell when the gross mortality stats became available a week ago, suggesting ~2,000 excess deaths vs. 642... Read More
According to the April 2020 update of the IMF's WEO Database. List by the IMF
A correspondent brought this new paper to my attention: Binder, Seth, Ethan Holdahl, Ly Trinh, and John H. Smith. 2020. “Humanity’s Fundamental Environmental Limits.” Human Ecology, April. This is in the same order of magnitude as my ~100 billion estimate. Our results also approximate those of models tied to current technologies. De Wit (1967) and... Read More
Ironically, despite the retreat of globalization in the past couple of months, Corona-chan has if anything shrank the world. For instance, I started participating in Zoom meetups with my old futurist group from the Bay Area again, four years after leaving the US. Which is not, I suppose, a bad thing. As many of us... Read More
Although the idea that "crisis" and "opportunity" are represented by the same Chinese character is "fake news", it is nonetheless true that the two often go together. As we stew in our respective lockdowns, let's think about Corona-chan may make the world better: For the first time, many older people will be sufficiently incentivized to... Read More
For instance, take Sub-Saharan Africa. Median age is ~18 years, and only 3% of the population is above the age of 65 (for Italy, these figures are 45 years and 24%, respectively). Their mortality rates are already very high, so the net impact on their life expectancy will be modest, since age is the single... Read More
Here it is: Coronacast with Anatoly Karlin: Episode II List of topics: Russian Unz Review blogger Anatoly Karlin returns to talk about the recent stats and political implications of the coronavirus pandemic. (Note updates have occurred since recording of show). Check out Anatoly’s updates on the pandemic on Twitter. Topics: Why the US is still... Read More
FlightRadar24 is a live map that shows all the world's commercial air flights in real time. The world is at a standstill, with the major exception of the US. Though I hear that many of these flights are empty or near empty. Nonetheless, I do wonder when we last saw such a high North American... Read More
In today's federal address, Putin announced that the referendum on the Constitutional referendum - which nullifies his Presidential terms, and implicitly defines Russians as the "state-forming" people of the Russian Federation - is to be indefinitely postponed from its original date of April 22 because the "absolute priority" is to be the "health, safety and... Read More
Here's what a smart Trump would have done: Two months of hard containment in NYC, Washington, parts of Florida, and other hotspots to knock the epidemic back down to manageable levels. This is not going to be easy; the Chinese closed off Wuhan when it was at just 400 official cases, and the total number... Read More
Here's a map of Moscow's coronavirus cases to date: Notice something interesting? Although it's not a particularly clean demarcation, there is a higher density towards the center and south-west, while there's much fewer cases in the prole-ish south-east. This corresponds with: Property & rental prices "Racism" in house listings Liberal opposition's share of the vote... Read More
Meduza has done a good job in systemically compiling regional data on ventilator/ECMO machine availability across Russia's regions (see below). Russia also has plenty of beds, thanks to the Soviet legacy (as I pointed out a couple of months ago). So in the event the epidemic is not contained, it probably won't do too much... Read More
The stream of articles suggesting that Russia is covering up its Corona numbers has increased from a stream to a veritable flood: CBC: Russia’s coronavirus count under scrutiny as Putin government denies hiding cases Moscow Times: Russia Says It Has Very Few Coronavirus Cases. The Numbers Don’t Tell the Full Story. Reuters: Sharp increase in... Read More
Robert Stark talks to me about the coronavirus pandemic, as well as my old article on effective altruism, animal IQ, and animal rights. LINK → Robert Stark talks to Anatoly Karlin about the Coronavirus Pandemic & Animal Rights Here are the topics we discuss: Anatoly’s initial predictions Corona & the Cost of Doing Nothing The... Read More
Russia's still quite low, though now rapidly expanding, number of cases has predictably provoked the Western media into a slew of headlines about how the Putler regime is supposedly suppressing information on what must, by now, be a raging epidemic: Russia's coronavirus count under scrutiny as Putin government denies hiding cases Russia Says It Has... Read More
Though there have been some other, decidedly minor, world events that have pushed these developments off the front pages, we may confidently label March, 2020 as the final death of Russiagate v1.0 - the blockbuster hit that has spawned two official sequels to date, as well as an untold number of fan-made derivative works. First,... Read More
At least according to something called the "2019 Global Health Security Index", which claims that: The US, which had, until recently, tested 100x fewer people per capita than Italy. The UK, whose game plan - at least until a couple of days ago - was to let most of its population get infected to make... Read More
Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy - It's Just Like the Flu, Brah!
There is a three in a million chance that a Boeing 737 MAX won't arrive at its destination in one piece. At the end of the day, this isn't that big of a deal - as late as the 1980s, this was the average for the commercial airline industry, and risks were twice as high... Read More
People have been asking me what's going on in Russia with respect to the Corona situation. I am a Russia blogger, and I am quite obsessed with Corona, so I certainly need to write about this intersection. As of March 8, there were 17 confirmed cases in Russia (two Chinese - both several weeks ago,... Read More
I wrote about how this winter was the warmest on record in Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, and many other places in Russia. This is having salubrious effects on public health: Alcohol Deaths Plummet as ‘Warmest Winter’ Hits Russia My regular readers will know that alcohol consumption has long been a very strong contributing factor to many other... Read More
Many big headlines since the last time we talked about it, but the two biggest ones in my opinion are: 1. In my Feb 24 post, I suggested there are already numerous Corona clusters all over the US, Europe, and elsewhere, due to the disease's ease of spread and its having a long incubation period.... Read More
Time for this year's update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there's nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice. For extended commentary, you'd be better off reading the last one. None of the main trends have changed:... Read More
Hyperbolic much? At this point, the burden of proof surely now has to be on the optimists, who've been alternately barraging us with "iTs JuSt LiKe ThE fLu", and/or "it's not going to kill non-East Asians anyway" (not that CNN's Sanjay Gupta will admit it). But with epidemics, it's usually a case of go big... Read More
Subregional map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) The UN projects that while Europe stagnates, Sub-Saharan Africa's population will explode from ~one billion today to almost four billion souls by the end of the century. Steve Sailer famously calls this... Read More
World map of mean ideal number of children for women (of reproductive age: 15-49). Source: DHS Program (map it yourself) See also my region specific posts on fertility preferences in: Europe Russia Africa This map fills in the spots elsewhere. South America: Constricting the sample to surveys performed in the 2010s, it seems the region... Read More
There are millions of Gastarbeiters from Central Asia and the Caucasus in Russia. But contra /pol/ wignats and Ukrainian svidomy, it really doesn't seem like the Kremlin intends for them to stay. At least that's the general gist of this Bloomberg article by Henry Meyer and Ilya Khrennikov: Putin Sticks to ‘Russia First’ Even as... Read More
New census finds that there are 37.3M people in the Ukraine, down by almost 30% relative to their Soviet era peak of 52M. This means that at least semi-officially, the Ukraine now has a lower population than Poland for the first time in recorded history. In reality, even this is probably a significant overestimate: Official... Read More
While we wait for the last data to trickle in to update Russian Demographics in 2019 for the new year, I would note that Rosstat released a new demographic forecast at the end of December. Here is the TLDR on what they project for 2035: As usual, there is a Low, Medium, and High scenario.... Read More
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
Is the talking point I'd use if I was in the business of making pro-Russia propaganda. Poll: апр. 92 апр. 09 май. 11 май. 12 май. 13 май. 14 мар. 15 май. 15 май. 16 May 17 Sept 19 Gathering documents for exit <1 1 1 1 <1 1 1 1 1 1 <1 Have... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
In my Age of Malthusian Industrialism concept (see archive), I explore the possibility of a future scenario in which technology stagnates due to problems becoming harder and dysgenic reproduction patterns. Meanwhile, the demographic transition will be reversed, since fertility preferences are heritable, and ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian world. This may eventually bring the world population... Read More
Arthur K. Kroeber - CHINA'S ECONOMY (2016) Rating: 4/5 TLDR: Comprehensive and very readable overview of Chinese economy from a China expert, with especially useful discussions on Chinese SOE's, financial system, and the validity of Chinese economic statistics (spoiler: They're fine). Learned some interesting new things from it, despite having already read a considerable amount... Read More
The mean wage in Hong Kong not much more than $2,000 per month (a Croatian acquaintance who works there cited the same numbers half a year ago). Its surprising come to think of it, but that means that Muscovites - where salaries are $1,500 per month but multiplied by almost twice - are substantially more... Read More
As commenter Reykur recently pointed out - citing the work of the blogger denalt, there is a rather curious phenomenon occurring in a few ethnic Russian regions, where rural fertility has exploded in the past decade. There are precisely four of these regions - Arkhangelsk, Komi, Kirov, and Karelia - and they are all located... Read More
This is yet another question that excites much heated commentary in the "Ukraine debates." There is a "school" of thought amongst the more ideological Russophiles that the Ukraine has completely emptied out. Here is an article by Andrey Fomin in which he argues that it only has 22-24 million people versus the official figure of... Read More
In my tradition of rescuing sufficiently fine comments from the relative oblivion that are long comments sections, I am reprinting Thulean Friend's detailed comment on Israel's prospects in the last Open Thread. *** I got into a discussion with Dmitry some time ago about emigration patterns from Israel. His postion was that it was an... Read More
Rather interesting article from the FT on Russia's recent successes in VAT collection, which is soaring thanks to digitization and AI. How was this done? Basically, hiring IT nerds and giving them authority. I wrote about a seemingly similar reshuffle at Rosstat earlier this year, in which an ageing Soviet-era economist was replaced with a... Read More
Sweden (Yes!) comes in for a hard time with the Alt Right and the /pol/ crowd on the Internet where it has basically become a meme. However, there's something Sweden - and the Nordics - are doing right. According to Twitter demographer Cicerone's calculations, the Nordics are the only major world region where fertility rates... Read More
On April 15, BTC was ~$5k. Now it's around $13k. You can make good money by reading me. My long-term prediction is that Bitcoin will remain within the $10-20k range for the next couple of years, but will converge to an ultimate price of $100k within five years.
The new list is out for June 2019. Observations: (1) As noted before, the only relevant countries at this stage are the United States and China. (Europe and Japan became marginal in this game a decade ago). The world's two top systems are now again American, while China's one-time leader the Sunway TaihuLight (all built... Read More
Yoder, Christian N., and Scott A. Reid. 2019. “The Quality of Online Knowledge Sharing Signals General Intelligence.” Personality and Individual Differences 148 (October): 90–94. Humans don't work for free. Gold. USD. Online reputation. There needs to at least be something, because otherwise there will be nothing.
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.