The betting odds between Trump/Biden (~45-50% vs. 40%-45%) have stayed remarkable steady since Bernie got put out of his misery.
However, there’s been one remarkable shift.
Whereas in 2016, support for Trump increased monotonically with age, more and more polls now appear to confirm that older people, especially Silents and Greatest are turning away from Trump to Biden.
Funnily enough, Trump’s most fervid supporters may now very well be Gen X. Which is not inappropriate, I suppose, seeing as his aesthetics and brash mannerisms are closest to that group.
I don’t know the reasons for this, though I can speculate:
- Biden doesn’t trigger normie conservatives like Hillary did.
- They don’t appreciate GOP’s stance on Corona.
- More general matter of “civility brain worms” (though it’s not as if Trump was any less combative in 2016).
FWIW, my Twitter followers are split more or less evenly between those three positions.
Conversely, I don’t see why many normie young Americans should feel enthused about voting for Biden. He is less progressive on virtually all issues, from Medicare and student debt to climate change, than HRC. At least the Donald gave many of them a $1,200 check.
Matt Forney also has some interesting thoughts (see the full thread):
It's because old people have money, and the Democrats are the party of the haves and the GOP are the party of the have-nots. Rich people vote for the status quo (neoliberalism).
The same pattern holds in other countries: in France etc., old people vote center-left/centrist. https://t.co/KCCuE4v1CV
— Terror House Press (@terrorhousemag) May 27, 2020