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Belarus Sitrep 8: End of Multivector FP
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There have been no important developments since the last Belarus Sitrep. The protests continue to periodically simmer, but they are massively down from their peak several weeks ago.

The pro-Russian orientation has become progressively clearer:

  • Chairman of the Standing Commission on International Affairs Andrey Savinykh has openly stated that Belarus’ prior “multivector” foreign policy no longer corresponded with its national interests in an era of “unification of states and destruction of global trade and financial systems.” Its new “highest priority” is to be the “strengthening of political, economic, and military relations with Russia in the framework of the Union State.”
  • Pro-Union State information campaigns.
  • Rumors floating that Lukashenko has sent his son Kolya to an elite boarding school in Moscow.

In this context, the diminution of the protests makes sense. While only ~30% of Belorussians support Lukashenko, only ~15% may be considered hardcore zmagars. When it looked like Lukashenko was going to continue his permanent potato dictatorship, it is understandable that 70% of the population was peeved at him. Now that it looks like there’s a course set for integration with Russia, neither pro-Lukashenkoists nor anti-Lukashenko Russophiles have any reason to be out on the streets, so it’s mainly the zmagarists who remain.

***

Yury Dud’, the most popular zoomer icon in Russia (hipster type who specializes in interviews and has twice as many YouTube subscribers as Navalny), was in Poland. He helpfully, if inadvertently, helped expose the Polish roots and financing of the NEXTA Telegram channel used to coordinate the protests:

Machine translation from state TV journalist Vladimir Soloviev’s Telegram channel from September 20:

People from NEXTA are completely open and naturally speak out or don’t even try to be shy. Well, first of all, all the participants are essentially very polonized. Dud’ asks, almost everyone answers like this:
– How long have you been here?
– A week since I arrived.
– And where in general?
– From Minsk.
– How do you like being in Poland? Are you used to it?
– Yes, I have already lived here for 10 years.

Secondly, the main character himself, Putilo, calmly says that he actually studied at the Belarusian gymnasium, which is maintained by the Polish Republic. He has a constant Polish accent and Polish declensions.

Thirdly. Supervision from the Polish government, a meeting with the Polish prime minister does not raise questions from people, well, like, why, such support. External interference? Well, what is it? This is good support, right intervention.

Fourth. Propaganda? Well, yes, we are propaganda. But we are good propaganda, for everything good, against everything bad, such propaganda is needed.

Fifth. Constant talk. Like. Well, there are 4 of us working in total. An hour of interview: we have a whole department monitoring insiders from the Belarusian special services; but there is still a guard around us, who it is – I don’t know, I’m not interested, maybe the Polish special services, or maybe just good people.

Here, in theory, there should be lesson, about the cunning Poles who taught the Belarusian youth in their universities, made anti-Russian and pro-Polish activists out of them – scoundrels! But the Poles are right, that’s the only way. There are no less, but more Belarusians studying in Russian universities, but none of them made pro-Russian activists, they did not make any pro-Russian media centers out of Belarusian youth. And these are all the numerous questions to the Russian authorities, which again screwed up out of the blue.

Fair point. And one that I and others have often made as well.

***

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Belarus, Color Revolution, Poland, Russia 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Some extremely familiar occurences in the last paragraphs.
    A tiny minority of Montenegrins studied in Croatian Universities, but their influence and presence is blown out of proportions.

    While the huge number of those who studied in Serbia are not even pro-Serbian, but actually form the anti-Serbian, Montenegrin political elite.
    Every single minister of the departing government studied and graduated in Serbian universities.

    • Replies: @yakushimaru
    @Epigon

    It is what Bin Laden said. People like the strong horse.

    It is a long game rather than something to do with the universities or any particular items on education policy.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

  3. It seems to me a good way to kill off this type of Belarusian nationalism would be to ask the supporters about independent Belarusian history, literature, historic figures, achievements, and so on. Perhaps they will realize that they are Macedonia-tier larpers.

    It’s different from Ukraine, Ukraine can at least larp as “We wuz Kievan Rus”.

    There is also another equally important difference between Belarus and Ukraine. Ukrainians were told that independent Ukraine was going to be one of the powerful European states. They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements. So when modern Ukraine didn’t turn out like this, when there was neither prosperity nor any achievements comparable to those accomplished when being the second most important Soviet Republic, that created a lot of anger. There was need to put blame somewhere.

    Belarus on the other hand never had any hopes of being a greater power.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Shortsword


    They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements.
     
    The first Ukrainian president (1991-94) Kravchuk: “in five years Ukrainians will live, like in France”.

    The second Ukrainian president (1994-2005) Kuchma: “in ten years Ukrainians will live, like in Poland”.

    Failed former Georgian president, then failed formar Odessa region boss Saakashvili after 2014 coup: “if everything goes well, in 20 years Ukrainians will live like under Yanukovych”.

    Comments aren’t necessary, are they?
    , @Exile
    @Shortsword

    It would upset some of my blood relatives to hear me say it, but this is true. Others would whole-heartedly agree.

    As I've said here before, in a world of US/Israel & NATO vs. non-aligned & multi-polarist nations (Russia & China chief among them), Belarus cannot retain anything resembling its historic culture or political autonomy without having a patron among the greater powers.

    Given its culture, history and sheer proximity to the Russian strategic and cultural core, there is no alternative for Belarus but to work in an honorable partnership with Russia - which Russia has and will continue to offer.

    Any attempt to sever its ties with Russia will ensure that Belarus is snatched by the grasping claws of Globoshlomo to be used as a footstool and staging area for Great Game gay-ops as Berlin and Prague were during the Cold War - and eventually see Minsk turned into Ground Zero for the gayest World War yet.

    This is madness, of course. No one who loves Belarus or world peace should support anything but a strong Russian-Belarussian partnership and alliance.

    , @szopen
    @Shortsword

    In the past some Belarussians were all about "we were Kryvichy" or "we were Litvins" - meaning Grand Duchy of Lithuania in reality was run by Belarussians :/ What about now?

  4. Isn’t this just self-serving lip service to protect the regime?

    How difficult is it really to incorporate Belarus? Just declare the parliament a state assembly equal to the Altai Republic’s. Or would it be better to give them seats in the Duma?

  5. As Russian joke puts it, “revolution was cancelled: tsar supported batska”.

    Here is an interesting aspect people don’t comment much on. The Empire unleashed only the lowliest and the least valuable sidekicks on batska: Baltic vaudeville states and Poland. Big players were not told to bark, so they didn’t. Looks like the Empire expected something like that and made sure no one of any value loses face barking up the wrong tree.

  6. @Shortsword
    It seems to me a good way to kill off this type of Belarusian nationalism would be to ask the supporters about independent Belarusian history, literature, historic figures, achievements, and so on. Perhaps they will realize that they are Macedonia-tier larpers.

    It's different from Ukraine, Ukraine can at least larp as "We wuz Kievan Rus".

    There is also another equally important difference between Belarus and Ukraine. Ukrainians were told that independent Ukraine was going to be one of the powerful European states. They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements. So when modern Ukraine didn't turn out like this, when there was neither prosperity nor any achievements comparable to those accomplished when being the second most important Soviet Republic, that created a lot of anger. There was need to put blame somewhere.

    Belarus on the other hand never had any hopes of being a greater power.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Exile, @szopen

    They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements.

    The first Ukrainian president (1991-94) Kravchuk: “in five years Ukrainians will live, like in France”.

    The second Ukrainian president (1994-2005) Kuchma: “in ten years Ukrainians will live, like in Poland”.

    Failed former Georgian president, then failed formar Odessa region boss Saakashvili after 2014 coup: “if everything goes well, in 20 years Ukrainians will live like under Yanukovych”.

    Comments aren’t necessary, are they?

  7. “…but none of them made pro-Russian activists,…” – This is not surprising . It is rather hard to overtly propagandize and argue against sovereignty and for submission to the Big Brother for most people in most countries though such treasonous “Real Politik” was not uncommon among Czechs. But not overtly some of them will become the future pro-Russian cadre and agents of influence while some may develop anti-Russian sentiments and resentments according to the “familiarity breeds contempt” and real and imaginary slights like being treated instrumentally and in condescending manner. I would expect the same take place among Belorussian students in Poland.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    @utu


    It is rather hard to overtly propagandize and argue against sovereignty and for submission to the Big Brother for most people in most countries though such treasonous “Real Politik” was not uncommon among Czechs.
     
    Moldbugian counterexample: the EU.
  8. @Shortsword
    It seems to me a good way to kill off this type of Belarusian nationalism would be to ask the supporters about independent Belarusian history, literature, historic figures, achievements, and so on. Perhaps they will realize that they are Macedonia-tier larpers.

    It's different from Ukraine, Ukraine can at least larp as "We wuz Kievan Rus".

    There is also another equally important difference between Belarus and Ukraine. Ukrainians were told that independent Ukraine was going to be one of the powerful European states. They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements. So when modern Ukraine didn't turn out like this, when there was neither prosperity nor any achievements comparable to those accomplished when being the second most important Soviet Republic, that created a lot of anger. There was need to put blame somewhere.

    Belarus on the other hand never had any hopes of being a greater power.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Exile, @szopen

    It would upset some of my blood relatives to hear me say it, but this is true. Others would whole-heartedly agree.

    As I’ve said here before, in a world of US/Israel & NATO vs. non-aligned & multi-polarist nations (Russia & China chief among them), Belarus cannot retain anything resembling its historic culture or political autonomy without having a patron among the greater powers.

    Given its culture, history and sheer proximity to the Russian strategic and cultural core, there is no alternative for Belarus but to work in an honorable partnership with Russia – which Russia has and will continue to offer.

    Any attempt to sever its ties with Russia will ensure that Belarus is snatched by the grasping claws of Globoshlomo to be used as a footstool and staging area for Great Game gay-ops as Berlin and Prague were during the Cold War – and eventually see Minsk turned into Ground Zero for the gayest World War yet.

    This is madness, of course. No one who loves Belarus or world peace should support anything but a strong Russian-Belarussian partnership and alliance.

  9. So far, Russia’s hand in Belarus looks vastly stronger than before. The irony of Atlanticist overreach doing more for Belarusian-Russian unification than the Kremlin ever did (or dared). 🙂

    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I’m sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @216
    @Swedish Family

    He's something of a technocrat, yes?

    I've found it interesting that technocrats are the only form of authoritarianism that Western liberals are willing to accommodate.

    The US right, and particularly the far-right, tend to be highly suspicious of the technocratic style of governance.

    Usually we think our road to power is through elections, or more deluded fashions of a revolution or coup. But this may be a XX century holdover.

    The Right's position amongst the credentialed is severely devastated. Moving towards technocracy might be a way to recover, albeit that our base of Protestant fundamentalists is allergic.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

    , @Gerard-Mandela
    @Swedish Family


    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I’m sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.
     
    Yes - i was going to make this remark in comment afew days ago. He appears very competent, and has started to implement some policies very well . Actually ,the national projects are very conducive to good governance

    The only problem? ........I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He's devout Orthodox , very wealthy - but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Swedish Family

  10. @utu
    "...but none of them made pro-Russian activists,..." - This is not surprising . It is rather hard to overtly propagandize and argue against sovereignty and for submission to the Big Brother for most people in most countries though such treasonous "Real Politik" was not uncommon among Czechs. But not overtly some of them will become the future pro-Russian cadre and agents of influence while some may develop anti-Russian sentiments and resentments according to the "familiarity breeds contempt" and real and imaginary slights like being treated instrumentally and in condescending manner. I would expect the same take place among Belorussian students in Poland.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

    It is rather hard to overtly propagandize and argue against sovereignty and for submission to the Big Brother for most people in most countries though such treasonous “Real Politik” was not uncommon among Czechs.

    Moldbugian counterexample: the EU.

  11. @Epigon
    Some extremely familiar occurences in the last paragraphs.
    A tiny minority of Montenegrins studied in Croatian Universities, but their influence and presence is blown out of proportions.

    While the huge number of those who studied in Serbia are not even pro-Serbian, but actually form the anti-Serbian, Montenegrin political elite.
    Every single minister of the departing government studied and graduated in Serbian universities.

    Replies: @yakushimaru

    It is what Bin Laden said. People like the strong horse.

    It is a long game rather than something to do with the universities or any particular items on education policy.

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @yakushimaru

    Do most people really favour the "strong horse" though? Historically Britain was the "strong horse", yet today you would be hard pressed to find a nation and history more thoroughly disliked worldwide than Britain.

    Britain is probably the country I see criticised and hated in the comments on this site with by far the most frequency. Most people seem to favour Ireland and Scotland over Britain/England, because they see them as the "underdogs".

  12. Carnegie is acknowledging the Russia is emerging as a victor on this stealth battle against the Aglosionist axis over Belorussia. Off course they bark and mix analysis with wishful thinking but they started to concede.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/17/can-moscow-manage-a-power-transition-in-belarus-a71471

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Aedib

    Russia backing repression now is a guaranteed lose in 5 years time. Even more so if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum. A built in problem for Russia's future.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Aedib

  13. @Swedish Family
    So far, Russia's hand in Belarus looks vastly stronger than before. The irony of Atlanticist overreach doing more for Belarusian-Russian unification than the Kremlin ever did (or dared). :)

    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I'm sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.

    Replies: @216, @Gerard-Mandela

    He’s something of a technocrat, yes?

    I’ve found it interesting that technocrats are the only form of authoritarianism that Western liberals are willing to accommodate.

    The US right, and particularly the far-right, tend to be highly suspicious of the technocratic style of governance.

    Usually we think our road to power is through elections, or more deluded fashions of a revolution or coup. But this may be a XX century holdover.

    The Right’s position amongst the credentialed is severely devastated. Moving towards technocracy might be a way to recover, albeit that our base of Protestant fundamentalists is allergic.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    @216


    He’s something of a technocrat, yes?
     
    Oh, yeah -- to his fingertips. But that's what you want in a prime minister: non-ideological drive and skill. Medvedev struck me as basically non-ideological also.
  14. While certainly the vast majority of people are soft Russophiles, nobody really cares about this announcement and they’re not suddenly rejoicing that evil Luka will be replaced by epic Putin. The answer is banal doomerism, people gave up on the possibility their efforts will lead to change. Meanwhile patriotic passion won’t keep the refrigerator full, so people have to go back to their jobs.

    • Replies: @Justiana
    @Belarusian Dude

    No money from West. It is simple as this. I think Belarusia might benefit from one currency with Russia.

    Replies: @Belarusian Dude

    , @anonymous coward
    @Belarusian Dude


    will lead to change
     
    "Change for change's sake" is such a putridly stale meme that consuming it will rot your brain.

    Replies: @Belarusian Dude

  15. As opposed to Tikhanovskaya, RFE/RL is gung ho on svido like transliteration:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/tsikhanouskaya-calls-on-foreign-leaders-to-stop-supporting-lukashenka-regime/30850546.html

    Expect some other Western mass media outlets to follow.

    Alex Christotorou puts Lukashenko’s popularity in the 50%-55% range:

    https://theduran.com/ngos-stage-managing-color-revolution-in-belarus/

    Interesting:

    Had Babariko been a presidential candidate in the last Belarusian election, Tikhanovskaya would probably not be as relevant in the present.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Mikhail


    Tikhanovskaya would probably not be as relevant in the present
     
    Tikhanovskaya is about as relevant as Guaido, or as last year snow. That’s why the Empire only commanded minor vassals to play Tikhanovskaya card, allowing more respectable one to distance themselves from that nonentity.
  16. @Mikhail
    As opposed to Tikhanovskaya, RFE/RL is gung ho on svido like transliteration:

    https://www.rferl.org/a/tsikhanouskaya-calls-on-foreign-leaders-to-stop-supporting-lukashenka-regime/30850546.html

    Expect some other Western mass media outlets to follow.

    Alex Christotorou puts Lukashenko's popularity in the 50%-55% range:

    https://theduran.com/ngos-stage-managing-color-revolution-in-belarus/

    Interesting:

    https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1308438536337715204

    Had Babariko been a presidential candidate in the last Belarusian election, Tikhanovskaya would probably not be as relevant in the present.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    Tikhanovskaya would probably not be as relevant in the present

    Tikhanovskaya is about as relevant as Guaido, or as last year snow. That’s why the Empire only commanded minor vassals to play Tikhanovskaya card, allowing more respectable one to distance themselves from that nonentity.

  17. @Swedish Family
    So far, Russia's hand in Belarus looks vastly stronger than before. The irony of Atlanticist overreach doing more for Belarusian-Russian unification than the Kremlin ever did (or dared). :)

    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I'm sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.

    Replies: @216, @Gerard-Mandela

    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I’m sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.

    Yes – i was going to make this remark in comment afew days ago. He appears very competent, and has started to implement some policies very well . Actually ,the national projects are very conducive to good governance

    The only problem? ……..I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He’s devout Orthodox , very wealthy – but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Gerard-Mandela


    The only problem?
     
    Mishustin is certainly a tough and talented executive. Before becoming PM, he turned Russian tax agency from a complete mess to a well oiled and functional entity. I think the main question about Mishustin is, how good he is at strategy. It is one thing to implement policies ordered by Putin, and quite a different one to have his own strategic vision. I hope he has that, as he is currently the most capable member of Putin’s team who is one generation younger (both Lavrov and Shoigu are the same generation as Putin).
    , @Swedish Family
    @Gerard-Mandela


    The only problem? ……..I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He’s devout Orthodox , very wealthy – but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.
     
    For what it's worth, Mishustin seems to me a team player. Ideology he will happily leave to others, even when the party line goes against his own beliefs.
  18. @Gerard-Mandela
    @Swedish Family


    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I’m sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.
     
    Yes - i was going to make this remark in comment afew days ago. He appears very competent, and has started to implement some policies very well . Actually ,the national projects are very conducive to good governance

    The only problem? ........I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He's devout Orthodox , very wealthy - but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Swedish Family

    The only problem?

    Mishustin is certainly a tough and talented executive. Before becoming PM, he turned Russian tax agency from a complete mess to a well oiled and functional entity. I think the main question about Mishustin is, how good he is at strategy. It is one thing to implement policies ordered by Putin, and quite a different one to have his own strategic vision. I hope he has that, as he is currently the most capable member of Putin’s team who is one generation younger (both Lavrov and Shoigu are the same generation as Putin).

    • Agree: Gerard-Mandela, Jazman
  19. Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.

    What has become of “our bastard”?

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @but an humble craftsman

    Belarusians (and Ukrainians) are about as Russian as Scots are English, and that's being generous.

    Although most people are far more aware of Scottish culture than Belarusian and Ukrainian culture, so you've probably got a better chance of baboozling the world with pseudo-history and Russian-centric nonsense to make people believe otherwise.

    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Hyperborean

    , @AnonFromTN
    @but an humble craftsman


    Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.
     
    Simple. Self-appointed Free West™ is run by intellectually inferior people who cannot see two moves ahead. That’s why Putin often wins with a lot weaker hand. Mind you, he is not a genius, he has no more than normal (for a human) intellectual capabilities. Which the “leaders” of Free West™ clearly lack.
    , @Philip Owen
    @but an humble craftsman

    In what Universe, not this one? This was home grown in origin although the subsequent electronic organization suggests method. Belarus has enough IT expertise to have developed the use social media internally.

  20. @Belarusian Dude
    While certainly the vast majority of people are soft Russophiles, nobody really cares about this announcement and they're not suddenly rejoicing that evil Luka will be replaced by epic Putin. The answer is banal doomerism, people gave up on the possibility their efforts will lead to change. Meanwhile patriotic passion won't keep the refrigerator full, so people have to go back to their jobs.

    Replies: @Justiana, @anonymous coward

    No money from West. It is simple as this. I think Belarusia might benefit from one currency with Russia.

    • Replies: @Belarusian Dude
    @Justiana

    I know almost a hundred people in the protests on a first name basis and only one of them has shady money motivating him, your answer is schizo at best

    Replies: @Justiana

  21. @Justiana
    @Belarusian Dude

    No money from West. It is simple as this. I think Belarusia might benefit from one currency with Russia.

    Replies: @Belarusian Dude

    I know almost a hundred people in the protests on a first name basis and only one of them has shady money motivating him, your answer is schizo at best

    • Replies: @Justiana
    @Belarusian Dude

    We misunderstood each other. I know that protestors are honest and nobody pays them.
    Also, I think that Belorussian security forces over react. You can not beat people willy nilly.
    I was talking about whole economy. If West want help Belarusia, they would at least offered some kind of partnership which might decrease dependency on Russia. So far EU offered hashtags.
    I mentioned adopting Russian rubble. It is more stable then Belorussian currency and it might help with well being regular people.
    I am afraid, that you guys don't have good options. Hopefully, Belarusia will not go into similar deep crisis like other East Europe countries in nineties.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

  22. @Belarusian Dude
    While certainly the vast majority of people are soft Russophiles, nobody really cares about this announcement and they're not suddenly rejoicing that evil Luka will be replaced by epic Putin. The answer is banal doomerism, people gave up on the possibility their efforts will lead to change. Meanwhile patriotic passion won't keep the refrigerator full, so people have to go back to their jobs.

    Replies: @Justiana, @anonymous coward

    will lead to change

    “Change for change’s sake” is such a putridly stale meme that consuming it will rot your brain.

    • Replies: @Belarusian Dude
    @anonymous coward

    your point being?

    Replies: @anonymous coward

  23. @Belarusian Dude
    @Justiana

    I know almost a hundred people in the protests on a first name basis and only one of them has shady money motivating him, your answer is schizo at best

    Replies: @Justiana

    We misunderstood each other. I know that protestors are honest and nobody pays them.
    Also, I think that Belorussian security forces over react. You can not beat people willy nilly.
    I was talking about whole economy. If West want help Belarusia, they would at least offered some kind of partnership which might decrease dependency on Russia. So far EU offered hashtags.
    I mentioned adopting Russian rubble. It is more stable then Belorussian currency and it might help with well being regular people.
    I am afraid, that you guys don’t have good options. Hopefully, Belarusia will not go into similar deep crisis like other East Europe countries in nineties.

    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    @Justiana

    The EU is trying to avoid backing the protestors. The moment they do, Putin has an excuse to send in Russian security forces without restraint.

  24. @yakushimaru
    @Epigon

    It is what Bin Laden said. People like the strong horse.

    It is a long game rather than something to do with the universities or any particular items on education policy.

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    Do most people really favour the “strong horse” though? Historically Britain was the “strong horse”, yet today you would be hard pressed to find a nation and history more thoroughly disliked worldwide than Britain.

    Britain is probably the country I see criticised and hated in the comments on this site with by far the most frequency. Most people seem to favour Ireland and Scotland over Britain/England, because they see them as the “underdogs”.

  25. @but an humble craftsman
    Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.

    What has become of "our bastard"?

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @AnonFromTN, @Philip Owen

    Belarusians (and Ukrainians) are about as Russian as Scots are English, and that’s being generous.

    Although most people are far more aware of Scottish culture than Belarusian and Ukrainian culture, so you’ve probably got a better chance of baboozling the world with pseudo-history and Russian-centric nonsense to make people believe otherwise.

    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.

    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • LOL: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    Why are you always wrong?

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    , @Hyperborean
    @Europe Europa


    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.
     
    Most people abroad use England and Great Britain as mutually exchangeable synonyms, even if they are aware of the existence of Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland.

    In Chinese and Japanese the most common name for Britain (英国) is literally England. Another common Japanese term for Britain is イギリス/Igirisu, which is also derived from English.
  26. @Europe Europa
    @but an humble craftsman

    Belarusians (and Ukrainians) are about as Russian as Scots are English, and that's being generous.

    Although most people are far more aware of Scottish culture than Belarusian and Ukrainian culture, so you've probably got a better chance of baboozling the world with pseudo-history and Russian-centric nonsense to make people believe otherwise.

    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Hyperborean

    Why are you always wrong?

    • Replies: @Europe Europa
    @Kent Nationalist

    Why are you obsessed with claiming I'm wrong? Nothing I've said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.

    You strike me as someone obsessed with proving to the Russians and pro-Russians here that you're their lackey.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

  27. @Kent Nationalist
    @Europe Europa

    Why are you always wrong?

    Replies: @Europe Europa

    Why are you obsessed with claiming I’m wrong? Nothing I’ve said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.

    You strike me as someone obsessed with proving to the Russians and pro-Russians here that you’re their lackey.

    • Troll: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    @Europe Europa


    Nothing I’ve said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.
     
    Who are you to make this call? Know any linguistics? Or any language other than English? (Which is not to say that language is the right focus here -- it's not.)

    Replies: @Wielgus

  28. @Europe Europa
    @but an humble craftsman

    Belarusians (and Ukrainians) are about as Russian as Scots are English, and that's being generous.

    Although most people are far more aware of Scottish culture than Belarusian and Ukrainian culture, so you've probably got a better chance of baboozling the world with pseudo-history and Russian-centric nonsense to make people believe otherwise.

    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.

    Replies: @Kent Nationalist, @Hyperborean

    The average person internationally probably thinks Minsk and Kiev are in Russia, whereas no one thinks Glasgow and Edinburgh is England.

    Most people abroad use England and Great Britain as mutually exchangeable synonyms, even if they are aware of the existence of Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland.

    In Chinese and Japanese the most common name for Britain (英国) is literally England. Another common Japanese term for Britain is イギリス/Igirisu, which is also derived from English.

  29. @Shortsword
    It seems to me a good way to kill off this type of Belarusian nationalism would be to ask the supporters about independent Belarusian history, literature, historic figures, achievements, and so on. Perhaps they will realize that they are Macedonia-tier larpers.

    It's different from Ukraine, Ukraine can at least larp as "We wuz Kievan Rus".

    There is also another equally important difference between Belarus and Ukraine. Ukrainians were told that independent Ukraine was going to be one of the powerful European states. They were going to become prosperous and have their own independent achievements. So when modern Ukraine didn't turn out like this, when there was neither prosperity nor any achievements comparable to those accomplished when being the second most important Soviet Republic, that created a lot of anger. There was need to put blame somewhere.

    Belarus on the other hand never had any hopes of being a greater power.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Exile, @szopen

    In the past some Belarussians were all about “we were Kryvichy” or “we were Litvins” – meaning Grand Duchy of Lithuania in reality was run by Belarussians :/ What about now?

  30. @but an humble craftsman
    Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.

    What has become of "our bastard"?

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @AnonFromTN, @Philip Owen

    Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.

    Simple. Self-appointed Free West™ is run by intellectually inferior people who cannot see two moves ahead. That’s why Putin often wins with a lot weaker hand. Mind you, he is not a genius, he has no more than normal (for a human) intellectual capabilities. Which the “leaders” of Free West™ clearly lack.

  31. @216
    @Swedish Family

    He's something of a technocrat, yes?

    I've found it interesting that technocrats are the only form of authoritarianism that Western liberals are willing to accommodate.

    The US right, and particularly the far-right, tend to be highly suspicious of the technocratic style of governance.

    Usually we think our road to power is through elections, or more deluded fashions of a revolution or coup. But this may be a XX century holdover.

    The Right's position amongst the credentialed is severely devastated. Moving towards technocracy might be a way to recover, albeit that our base of Protestant fundamentalists is allergic.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

    He’s something of a technocrat, yes?

    Oh, yeah — to his fingertips. But that’s what you want in a prime minister: non-ideological drive and skill. Medvedev struck me as basically non-ideological also.

  32. @Gerard-Mandela
    @Swedish Family


    By the way, the more I see of him, the higher I rate Mishustin. I’m sure he made a stellar impression in Minsk the other week.
     
    Yes - i was going to make this remark in comment afew days ago. He appears very competent, and has started to implement some policies very well . Actually ,the national projects are very conducive to good governance

    The only problem? ........I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He's devout Orthodox , very wealthy - but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Swedish Family

    The only problem? ……..I have absolutely zero idea what his views are on anything. Does anybody have a clue what his political ideology is? He’s devout Orthodox , very wealthy – but what his thoughts are on Russian history, geopolitics and anything else are unknown at this moment.

    For what it’s worth, Mishustin seems to me a team player. Ideology he will happily leave to others, even when the party line goes against his own beliefs.

  33. @Europe Europa
    @Kent Nationalist

    Why are you obsessed with claiming I'm wrong? Nothing I've said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.

    You strike me as someone obsessed with proving to the Russians and pro-Russians here that you're their lackey.

    Replies: @Swedish Family

    Nothing I’ve said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.

    Who are you to make this call? Know any linguistics? Or any language other than English? (Which is not to say that language is the right focus here — it’s not.)

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    @Swedish Family

    I have read that there is a certain amount of mutual intelligibility among all three. I have often been able to follow written texts in Belarusian and Ukrainian, but that is not just because of any resemblance to Russian as some vocabulary in both is recognisable through Polish. Spoken Belarusian and Ukrainian are much harder for me to understand.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  34. Way to go Russians! It would have been pretty depressing if Belarus had been stolen from you and turned гей and мулат like the rest of Europe.

    I was watching Brat II a few weeks ago and there are scenes where the Ukrainian gangsters in the film are accused of being Banderists, and the Russians of being Moskals (which I gather is a bad thing, because Moscow is only 500 years old, or something, and this is bad) and otherwise showing Ukrainian-Russia ‘Narcissism of Small Differences’. Gave an outsider a glimpse of a cultural artifact which displayed how very real this tension was, even 20 years ago. Whereas, as you’ve been poasting Karlin, there’s nothing like this with peaceful old Belarus.

    Looks like the Belarus situation has been greatly improved. Reunification is maybe looking better than at any time since the 90s.

    I like to imagine this was some complicated conspiracy whereby the Trump admin deliberately mismanaged the Color Rev. as a means of giving Russia something, a prelude to the glorious future of diplomacy and cooperation to come in 2021-2024 and beyond…maybe?

  35. @anonymous coward
    @Belarusian Dude


    will lead to change
     
    "Change for change's sake" is such a putridly stale meme that consuming it will rot your brain.

    Replies: @Belarusian Dude

    your point being?

    • Replies: @anonymous coward
    @Belarusian Dude

    Once you start reifying what you really mean by "change", you find out that there is no consensus or even such a thing as "the people".

    So discussing "change" without explicitly making clear the who-whom is pointless. (Or a deliberate propaganda and lying, but let's be charitable here.)

  36. @Belarusian Dude
    @anonymous coward

    your point being?

    Replies: @anonymous coward

    Once you start reifying what you really mean by “change”, you find out that there is no consensus or even such a thing as “the people”.

    So discussing “change” without explicitly making clear the who-whom is pointless. (Or a deliberate propaganda and lying, but let’s be charitable here.)

  37. — Yes, I have already lived here for 10 years.

    I LOL’d.

    Belarus would do well to heed the lessons of Ukraine & Poland – fully cucked footstools for the Rainbow Empire. If this is muh independence, liberty and democracy, shackle yourself to Putler immediately.

  38. @Swedish Family
    @Europe Europa


    Nothing I’ve said is wrong, Belarusian and Ukrainian are different bloody languages to Russian for goodness sake, to say the distance between them and Russians is like that between Scots and English is being very generous to Russian jingoists.
     
    Who are you to make this call? Know any linguistics? Or any language other than English? (Which is not to say that language is the right focus here -- it's not.)

    Replies: @Wielgus

    I have read that there is a certain amount of mutual intelligibility among all three. I have often been able to follow written texts in Belarusian and Ukrainian, but that is not just because of any resemblance to Russian as some vocabulary in both is recognisable through Polish. Spoken Belarusian and Ukrainian are much harder for me to understand.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Wielgus

    All Slavic languages are similar enough. If you know one or two, you can understand written text in others. As to spoken language, knowing Russian and Ukrainian I can communicate with Czechs, Bulgarians, Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, if they speak slowly. Never tried Poles or Slovaks.

  39. From what I have been reading. Belarus is about to be color revolutioned.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Astuteobservor II


    From what I have been reading. Belarus is about to be color revolutioned.
     
    That apparently was the plan, but it flopped. But take heart: color revolution in the US is forging ahead full steam. Americans don’t seem to like the taste of their own medicine, though.

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

  40. @Astuteobservor II
    From what I have been reading. Belarus is about to be color revolutioned.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    From what I have been reading. Belarus is about to be color revolutioned.

    That apparently was the plan, but it flopped. But take heart: color revolution in the US is forging ahead full steam. Americans don’t seem to like the taste of their own medicine, though.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    @AnonFromTN

    What is the plan? Turn USA into a lgbt country or a stupid only country? Cause both sucks.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  41. @Wielgus
    @Swedish Family

    I have read that there is a certain amount of mutual intelligibility among all three. I have often been able to follow written texts in Belarusian and Ukrainian, but that is not just because of any resemblance to Russian as some vocabulary in both is recognisable through Polish. Spoken Belarusian and Ukrainian are much harder for me to understand.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    All Slavic languages are similar enough. If you know one or two, you can understand written text in others. As to spoken language, knowing Russian and Ukrainian I can communicate with Czechs, Bulgarians, Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, if they speak slowly. Never tried Poles or Slovaks.

  42. @AnonFromTN
    @Astuteobservor II


    From what I have been reading. Belarus is about to be color revolutioned.
     
    That apparently was the plan, but it flopped. But take heart: color revolution in the US is forging ahead full steam. Americans don’t seem to like the taste of their own medicine, though.

    Replies: @Astuteobservor II

    What is the plan? Turn USA into a lgbt country or a stupid only country? Cause both sucks.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Astuteobservor II


    What is the plan? Turn USA into a lgbt country or a stupid only country?
     
    Ask DNC and its puppet-masters. Whatever the answer, it’s going to stink to high Heaven.
  43. @Aedib
    Carnegie is acknowledging the Russia is emerging as a victor on this stealth battle against the Aglosionist axis over Belorussia. Off course they bark and mix analysis with wishful thinking but they started to concede.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/17/can-moscow-manage-a-power-transition-in-belarus-a71471

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    Russia backing repression now is a guaranteed lose in 5 years time. Even more so if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum. A built in problem for Russia’s future.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen


    if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum.
     
    Without any referendum, like Kosovo? What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?

    Replies: @Aedib

    , @Aedib
    @Philip Owen

    Western hypocrites want referendums only if the results are the results they want. E.g. they recognize the referendum in Falklands but refuse to recognize the referendum in Crimea. By the way, Belorussia will not be anchlussed by Russia. A supranational body will be created. Calm down.

  44. @but an humble craftsman
    Why the Free West™ is driving White Russia into the arms of the Russian Federation is beyond me.

    What has become of "our bastard"?

    Replies: @Europe Europa, @AnonFromTN, @Philip Owen

    In what Universe, not this one? This was home grown in origin although the subsequent electronic organization suggests method. Belarus has enough IT expertise to have developed the use social media internally.

  45. @Justiana
    @Belarusian Dude

    We misunderstood each other. I know that protestors are honest and nobody pays them.
    Also, I think that Belorussian security forces over react. You can not beat people willy nilly.
    I was talking about whole economy. If West want help Belarusia, they would at least offered some kind of partnership which might decrease dependency on Russia. So far EU offered hashtags.
    I mentioned adopting Russian rubble. It is more stable then Belorussian currency and it might help with well being regular people.
    I am afraid, that you guys don't have good options. Hopefully, Belarusia will not go into similar deep crisis like other East Europe countries in nineties.

    Replies: @Philip Owen

    The EU is trying to avoid backing the protestors. The moment they do, Putin has an excuse to send in Russian security forces without restraint.

  46. @Astuteobservor II
    @AnonFromTN

    What is the plan? Turn USA into a lgbt country or a stupid only country? Cause both sucks.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    What is the plan? Turn USA into a lgbt country or a stupid only country?

    Ask DNC and its puppet-masters. Whatever the answer, it’s going to stink to high Heaven.

  47. @Philip Owen
    @Aedib

    Russia backing repression now is a guaranteed lose in 5 years time. Even more so if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum. A built in problem for Russia's future.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Aedib

    if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum.

    Without any referendum, like Kosovo? What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?

    • Replies: @Aedib
    @AnonFromTN


    What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?
     
    They will refuse to recognize results, off course.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

  48. The Poles are being educated in soft power by the Americans, the Russian authorities don’t even know what that is.

  49. @Philip Owen
    @Aedib

    Russia backing repression now is a guaranteed lose in 5 years time. Even more so if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum. A built in problem for Russia's future.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN, @Aedib

    Western hypocrites want referendums only if the results are the results they want. E.g. they recognize the referendum in Falklands but refuse to recognize the referendum in Crimea. By the way, Belorussia will not be anchlussed by Russia. A supranational body will be created. Calm down.

  50. @AnonFromTN
    @Philip Owen


    if Belarus is absorbed without a fair referendum.
     
    Without any referendum, like Kosovo? What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?

    Replies: @Aedib

    What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?

    They will refuse to recognize results, off course.

    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    @Aedib


    They will refuse to recognize results, off course.
     
    No doubt. Hypocrisy has no limits. At least the Empire is playing its own game. It does not hurt itself much with sanctions against Russia. It is seeking an unfair commercial advantage trying to block NS2. Europe is hurting itself a lot more, as its trade with Russia was many times greater. It has a chance to shoot itself in the foot with shenanigans around NS2. Hypocrisy is the only game emasculated Europe has left, and it plays this game, as if there is no tomorrow. I’d feel pity for Europe if the damage was not 100% self-inflicted.
  51. @Aedib
    @AnonFromTN


    What if it’s absorbed according to the results of a referendum, like Crimea?
     
    They will refuse to recognize results, off course.

    Replies: @AnonFromTN

    They will refuse to recognize results, off course.

    No doubt. Hypocrisy has no limits. At least the Empire is playing its own game. It does not hurt itself much with sanctions against Russia. It is seeking an unfair commercial advantage trying to block NS2. Europe is hurting itself a lot more, as its trade with Russia was many times greater. It has a chance to shoot itself in the foot with shenanigans around NS2. Hypocrisy is the only game emasculated Europe has left, and it plays this game, as if there is no tomorrow. I’d feel pity for Europe if the damage was not 100% self-inflicted.

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