This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz)
You can read about the methodology here.
All in all, this sadly comports with the “millions” prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year I thought we would top out at 10 million, the spread of more infectious variants and vaccine distribution snafus means that we will almost certainly exceed that cumulatively by the end of this year. I also think it likely that even these excess mortality estimates substantially undercount India and Indonesia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa (though the latter is insulated by its very low median age). Remember that statistics are often substandard outside the industrialized world, and more speculative than real in much of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Here are the top 20 countries by Corona mortality from March 2020 to this May:
|Country||Total COVID-19 deaths||Reported COVID-19 deaths|
|United States of America||905,289||574,043|
And here are the top per capita “performers” (deaths per 100,000):
|Country||Total COVID-19 death rate||Reported COVID-19 death rate|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina||587.2||262.1|
|Republic of Moldova||377.6||158.4|
In the end, there seems to have been very little difference in outcomes amongst the East Europeans, despite significant policy differences (e.g. Belarus never had a lockdown, Lukashenko being an outspoken floomer, while Ukraine had the strongest lockdowns). Russia, which didn’t have real lockdowns after the first one, is around the same ballpark as Poland, and Ukraine is catching up fast. If you’re not serious about suppressing Corona and then keeping it that way through centralized quarantines and technological means, then it’s best not to bother with lockdowns at all to at least keep the GDP pumped. This is why I refrained from endorsing the second round of lockdowns.
Anyhow, by and large, vaccines are now accessible to anybody who wants them. So I can’t say I actually care about deaths at this point, if elderly anti-vaxxers want to croak, then good on them for reducing the pensions burden.
Amusingly, the world leader in Corona deaths seems to be Azerbaijan. These are the Chads would marched through the streets of Baku, demanding “end the lockdown, start the war.” Azerbaijan had a good year, its territory expanded.
Serbia is conspicuous by its absence. Vucic has handled things extremely well. Its politicians might be more rational than in most of Europe.
Also highest vaccination rate in Europe after the UK, with option of choosing between vaccines (Sputnik, Sinopharm, AstraZeneca), so Russophiles/Sinophiles get former and Atlantoids get latter.
Serbia's Corona response has been consistently impressive, but poorly covered. https://t.co/jPh3fISWhw
— 🇷🇺 ANATꙮLY 🤔 KARLIN (@akarlin88) April 4, 2021