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Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: Does Erdogan Want War with Russia?

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The situation with Turkey is rapidly getting out of control: not only have the Turks conducted artillery strikes across the Syrian border, Turkey has refused to comply with its obligations under the Open Skies Treaty and refused to let a Russian surveillance aircraft overfly Turkey. The Russian military has now declared that it had detected signs of Turkish preparations for an invasion. The Turkish refusal to abide by the Open Skies Treaty is an extremely worrisome development, especially when combined with the Russian warnings about the preparation for an invasion of Syria, and the Russians are not mincing their words:

There are plenty more indicators and warnings showing that an escalation is possible: the Geneva negotiations have been abruptly terminated, the Saudis are threatening to invade Syria and there are signs that the Syrian army is slowly but surely preparing an operation to liberate Aleppo from the Takfiris, creating a panic in Ankara and Riyadh (so much for the stupid notions that the Russians are not winning or that the Syrian military does not exist).

In the meantime, there are plenty of signs that Erdogan’s entire “grand plan” for Syria has completely collapsed that that he has no more options left (please read the excellent analysis by Ghassan Kadi on this topic posted today as well as Pepe Escobar’s take on the same issue).

I am not a psychic or a prophet. I cannot tell what Erdogan is really thinking, or whether the Turks will try to invade Syria. But what I can do is to try to make some educated guesses about possible Russian responses to such an event.

First, two basic principles:

1) If Russian forces are attacked they will hit back. Putin already gave them that authority and this will happen almost automatically with only local commanders making the final call. In other words, such an exchange of fire would not automatically be tantamount to a full-scale war between Turkey and Russia.

2) If Turkey invades Syria, Russia will act in strict compliance with international law. That means that she will demand an emergency meeting of the UNSC and that much will depend upon what the Council’s reaction will be. If the usual gangs of puppets “covers” for Turkey (which is by no means certain, in my opinion, at least not for very long, maybe a week or so max) then the Russians will then refer to their obligations to assist Syria under the 1980 “Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation” between the two countries (Russia being today the successor state to the USSR the treaty is still in force) and the 2015 “Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Syrian Arab Republic on thedeployment of aviation group of the Armed Forces on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.

In other words, Russia will retain a degree of flexibility to interpret the situation in one way or another. That, in turn, means that much will depend on what the Turks really try achieve.

If we are talking about the typical Turkish violation of a national border to attack the Kurds, like what they did many times in the past already, and if that intervention is limited in depth, Russia will probably chose non-military means to put pressure on Turkey. Again, while the crazies in Turkey badly want a war with Russia to internationalize the conflict and force NATO to intervene, the Russians have no interest at all in such an escalation. Just as in the Donbass, the West is trying to bait Russia into a war and Russia is refusing to take that bait. The problem is that unlike the Ukronazis, the Turks have a much more powerful military machine which the Russian cannot ignore like they have ignored the Ukronazi military and various death squads. So if Erdogan’s goal is just to look macho and flex some muscle, say like what Reagan did in Grenada, then he can probably get away with it, at least for a short operation. But if Erdogan is dead set in having a conflict with Russia, the Russian won’t be able to just hunker down and wait for him to calm down.

In the latter case, Russia will have a number of escalatory options.

The first obvious options is to help the Syrians and Kurds with intelligence. This is already taking place now and will only intensify in the case of a Turkish invasion.

The second is to shoot Turkish fixed or rotary-wing aircraft out of the skies. This is an easy option as the Syrians already have some pretty good air defense systems (including some Pantsir-S1, Buk-M1/2E, Tunguskas 2K22 and a fairly robust early-warning system) and a few more or less capable aircraft (possibly including upgraded MiG-29s). The Kremlin can thus enjoy a degree of what the CIA called “plausible deniability”.

The third option for Russia is to help the Syrians with the artillery system she reportedly deployed in the country including 52-millimeter MTSA-B guns, BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch rocket launchers.

All these options would still fall short of a “full-scale” war between Russia and Turkey. But if Erdogan is determined to escalate further then a war will be inevitable. If Turkey tries to attack Khmeimim directly, then Russia will strike back, no doubt about it.

What could it look like?

The first thing I would say is that neither country will try to invade the other one. The notion of Turkey invading Russia is self-evidently ludicrous, but while Turkey does fall within the 1000km depth the Russian military is trained to fight in, I don’t believe that Russia would ever attempt this. For one thing, and just as was the case with Georgia, nobody in Russia really believes that the Turks, as a nation, want war. If anything, Erdogan is much more of a “Saakashvili v2″ then a Hitler and he will be dealt with similarly. Furthermore, while during the 08.08.08 war Russia had to protect the Ossetians from the quasi-genocidal Georgians, Russia has no such obligations in Kurdistan.

A much more likely scenario is a repeat what we have already seen, but on a much larger scale: if Erdogan really forces Russia into a war, what will happen will be cruise and ballistic missile attacks on the infrastructure supporting the Turkish invasion, the sinking of any Turkish Navy ship involved in this effort, and bomb and missile attacks on Turkish force concentrations, ammo and fuel (POL) dumps and, especially, airfields. The goal of the Russian response will not be to “defeat” Turkey militarily, but to push back the Turks long enough to force some kind of a ceasefire upon Erdogan. Even if the Russian military is capable of completely defeating Turkey in a war, the Kremlin also realizes that any war between Turkey and Russia ought to be stopped as soon as possible and that rather than “defeating Turkey” the real Russian objective ought be to defeat Erdogan.

For this reason, the Russians, far from being trigger happy, will undertake every imaginable effort to show that they did not initiate the war, even if that means letting Turkey enter into Syria, at least as long as the Turks stay close to their border and do not attempt to change the course of the war. If all the Turks want is a thin “security zone” inside Syria, I don’t see the Russians using military force to deny this to them. They will protest, vehemently, on a diplomatic level, and they will help the Syrians and Kurds, but they will not directly attack the Turkish forces.

What about the Saudis? Well, what about them? They can’t even deal with the Houthis in Yemen, why would anyone think that they could make a difference in Syria? The Saudi military is a joke, a degenerate repression force barely capable of engaging in anti-Shia repression operations. They can make all the threats they want, but if they try to move into Syria the Syrians, Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah will all try to race each other to be the first one to finally get a hold of these SOBs in teach them a lesson they shall not forget in a long time.

Frankly, I simply don’t want to believe that Erdogan and his advisors are crazy enough to try to trigger a war with Russia or even to invade Syria. While Erdogan himself is clearly a maniac, I cannot believe that his entire staff is also composed of lunatics. Furthermore, I cannot imagine that the US/NATO/EU would actually support a Turkish invasion of Syria or, even less so, an attack on Russia. Russophobia is great only as long as it does not expose you to a continental war, at which point your self-interest and survival prevails over any ideological notions. At least I hope so.

And maybe I am naive, but I want to believe that the Turkish people are not going to just sit back and do nothing while their leader is dragging their country towards a war with Russia.

The Elder Saint Paisios the Athonite. Credit: The Saker

In conclusion, I want to mention one disturbing thing. A Greek elder, a monastic named Paisios, whom the Greek Orthodox Church has glorified as a saint, was known for his prophetic visions. One of the most famous one was his prediction that Turkey and Russia would have a major war which would result in a complete break-up of Turkey and the liberation of Constantinople from the Ottoman yoke (if you are interested by the details, click here and here). Now I quite realize that in our times most people will immediately dismiss such things as meaningless nonsense, obscurantism, superstition, wishful thinking on the part of a “resentful Greek”, religious gobbledygook etc. But please keep in mind that between the 15th and the 20th century, Russia and Turkey have already fought 12 wars (!). That over 2 wars (2.4 exactly) per century and that the last one happened a century ago.

So whether you look at prophecies, past experience or statistics, things look very, very scary, at least to me. And, as Ghassan Kadi and Pepe Escobar have explained, Erdogan is now cornered. That also makes him very dangerous.

The AngloZionists are experts at unleashing crazed ideologues (Wahabis in the Middle-East and Nazis in the Ukraine) but that they always seem to eventually somehow lose control over them. I just hope that the American ‘cover’ of the Turkish regime did not result in the unleashing of yet another rabid ideology – Ottoman Imperialism – or, if it has, that it is not too late for the US to rein in this lunatic before it is too late.

Erdogan and his regime are a threat to regional and even world piece. I don’t really care who removes him, the Turkish people or the White House, but I sure hope that his days in power are numbered because as long as he is in power a catastrophe of major proportions can happen.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Russia, Syria, Turkey

162 Comments to "Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: Does Erdogan Want War with Russia?"

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  1. It would seem to me that Turkey has the upper hand in any war with Russia in Syria because Turkey can control shipping through the Bosporus, and the logistics of supplying Russian troops in Syria by other routes seem both complicated and expensive. It is doubtful that alternative supply lines would have long term sustainability.

    Of course if Russia invades Turkey directly from the Black Sea, there may be little need for the Bosporus which makes the whole idea of a war between Turkey and Russia very dangerous.

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  2. “Mullah” Erdogans electoral powerbase remain with the fascists of the “Grey Wolves” factions and poor uneducated peasants in the rural areas, of which there are a LOT. Among the urban middle-classes and the Turkish intelligentsia not so much.

    Evidently, he have no problem to rally his people around any cause he finds necessary and if urban unrest like the ones last spring breaks out and threatens his rule in any way, he just bring in busload after busload of people (thugs really) from his aforementioned electoral powerbase.

    Those would obviously also support him in any lunatic operation if instructed and rallied to do so. So simply put, domestically, he has a lot of supporters and not enough sane voices to stop him, unless it somehow sparks a civil war with the Kurds and other non-Turkish people.

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  3. Mental Arts commands Martial Arts.

    So, the Zio-Glob rules.

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  4. In the event of an actual hot war between Turkey and Russia I just don’t see how Russia could possibly “push back” the Turks, even barring any NATO intervention.

    According to the latest reports, Russia has 16 modern air superiority fighters at Khmeinin – a base that has been constructed in a hurry over the course of less than a year. That is dwarfed by what the Turks have in Incirlik alone (overall they have almost 240 F-16 fighters).

    Khmeinin does now have the S-400 and some sophisticated EW systems but they can be swamped with enough cruise missiles.

    The Turkish Navy is the most powerful force in the Black Sea, so naval options appear to be ruled out.

    I suppose a key question is whether Russian cruise missiles and strategic air power can degrade Turkish military infrastructure faster than it could nullify Russian military power in and around Syria. Since if things really go south the Turks can literally go south and occupy Latakia outright – this will likely at least initially be quite trivial in difficulty given Turkish proximity – then for obvious reasons Russia’s entire position in the region collapses.

    I just don’t see any realistic rejoinders to the banal fact that Russia’s military power in Syria is ultimately very limited.

    So I would appreciate an explanation as to how in this scenario the Turks could be pushed back and a ceasefire could be forced on Erdogan.

    Viewing Erdogan as a Saakashivili 2 is self-serving delusion. He is legitimately popular and practically all of Turkish society is opposed to the Russian intervention in Syria – the Islamists for obvious reasons, the nationalists because they have irredentist ambitions regarding Turkmen enclaves in Syria, and the pro-Western liberals because they are pro-Western and therefore anti-Russian. Relying on domestic pressure to check Erdogan in this scenario would be tantamount to madness.

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  5. Again, another really good and quite naive analysis from Saker. I agree with many points he has discussed and with his conclusions, therefore I will only mention where he fails.

    The chance of an invasion by the Coalition of the Sponsors of Terrorism (COST) is still only low to medium, despite the fact that the COST terrorists are getting badly kicked right now. Each member of the Coalition, starting from the Israel at the top, keeps encouraging other members to go into Syria. It is the familiar “honesty among thieves”, each thief wants the loot (Syria) but wants his colleague to stick his neck and his purse out. Thus, the Coalition members kept “encouraging” each other since they started the Syrian war, around and around and around.

    However, the main thing that Saker discounts wrongly is the condition in which the West finds itself. The West is a self-looted land, there is no money for pensions, police or any kind of social care. The financial system is totally broke. As long as Saker assumes that the West does not really want war, he will underestimate the situation. The Western need for war to repudiate debts is much greater than the need to win in Syria or pass some pipeline.

    On top of this, even in a short term, Erdogan is not in an enviable situation – he and his clique have to show something for all the trouble they initiated for Turkey when they sent their proxy terrorists to Syria. The costs of all kinds have been huge to Turkey, but not one new km2 of territory (of a new Ottoman Empire) to show for it. This is not how you stay in power in an authoritarian country such as Turkey and no amount of election robbery can keep you in power any longer. Therefore, Erdogan really has to attack Syria.

    Therefore, things will come down to who has more and better troops in the region. Saker does not mention the NATO airbase at Incirlik and two aircraft carriers near Syria, one US and one French. The Turkish invention of Russian breach of the Turkish airspace, which was strongly supported by the US, was just a preview of a false flag of the MH17 kind that the COST is preparing to justify a war on Russia. NATO Gladio in action.

    In summary, the most likely attack scenario is a false flag immediately followed by a massive surprise air attack on the Russian airports and air defenses in Syria. Then Turkish tanks and troops move in towards Aleppo.

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  6. Russia has been playing and excellent strategy in restoring the state of Syria with compliance to the rules. One can only imagine the chaos if they were not supporting the government of Syria! A good summary of the state of play. I only hope cool heads will prevail like those on the Russian and Syrian side.

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  7. Just a few months ago The Faker was discussing Russian involvement in Syria as a limited and controlled air operation.

    Now he’s talking about the very real possibility of a major war between Russia and Turkey (and maybe even the Saudis getting involved).

    Even if the Russians and their Syrian/Iranian/Hezbollah allies win a battle here and there it is irrelevant. This war isn’t ending anytime soon and Russia will need to remain in Syria indefinitely in order to prop up Assad.

    It seems like Putin is dragging Russia deeper and deeper into the Syrian quagmire. With the Russian economy in the toilet I’m sure many Russians will view Putin’s adventures as a distraction from Russia’s domestic problems.

    Of course, this is all part of an “AngloZionist” conspiracy.

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  8. Adelson-owned cuckservative Rubio, probable Republiscam nominee, has demanded “absolute US/NATO support” for Turkey in the event of war with Russia. Hiligula – and, I suspect, that other Cuban cuck – are of similar mind. Mike Whitney says Putin has a limited window to get the mess in Syria cleaned up. I agree: once the neo-con Zionist warmongers get back in full control of “American” policy, this situation is going to boil over…1914-style

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  9. No Erdogan doesn’t want an open war with Russia. But might be forced to start it under the US-NATO-Israel pressure. Erdogan wouldn’t have much difficulty to convince Turk Muslim majority over war with Russia as Turk-Russian enmity goes back to Ottoman empire’s hatred of Communist/Jewish controlled Soviet Russia which had annexed several Turkish-speaking Muslim lands.

    Russia along with Britain supported Greek rebellion (1821-32) against Ottoman empire which resulted the end of Turkey’s 350 year rule over Greece. The Muslims in Greece are still paying the price of Greek hatred toward Islam.

    https://rehmat1.com/2009/12/08/no-mosque-in-athens/

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  10. There already is a proxy war. Turkey and Russia are natural enemies and the Alawite regime of Syria is therefore a natural ally of Russia. No leader of Turkey could act very differently to Erdogan, just as no Russian leader could act differently to Putin in recent years, because no one can be sure of the future intentions of rival states.

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  11. Can someone explain why surveillance flights would be remotely necessary in an era of satellites that can photograph the entire world down to a scale of inches?

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  12. War is likely. We are heading into the second leg of the Lesser Depression. Our rulers need something to distract their restive populations. The blood and carnage on their video screens will keep the peasants under control and help them adjust to their new lowered expectations.

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  13. Today,s Thought
    says:
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    […] This article was written for the Unz Review:http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-seventeen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-does-erdogan-want-war-… […]

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  14. Seems then Paisios wasn’t the only one who predict a conflict between Russia and Turkey. There’s also another guy from South Africa named Siener Van Rensburg who also precited it. https://heavenawaits.wordpress.com/siener-van-rensburg-visions-of-the-future/

    http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=367887

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  15. Just as in the Donbass, the West is trying to bait Russia into a war and Russia is refusing to take that bait.

    I cannot imagine that the US/NATO/EU would actually support a Turkish invasion of Syria or, even less so, an attack on Russia. Russophobia is great only as long as it does not expose you to a continental war, at which point your self-interest and survival prevails over any ideological notions.

    Another Saker’s brilliant analysis in a nutshell

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  16. Dad gum it, Rehmat, anyone who can write, with a straight face, that “Turk-Russian enmity goes back to Ottoman empire’s hatred of Communist/Jewish controlled Soviet Russia” has no place at Unz.com. Wow, the Turks and Russians haven’t gotten along since, well, 1917? I guess they were bosom buddies before that?

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  17. Syria is not ruled by Alawite (a Shia heretic cult) but by Ba’athist regime, which was also the ruling party under Saddam Hussein, a pro-US Sunni dictator. The Iraqi faction of Ba’athist party now support the US-Israel created ISIS.

    Ba’athist, a communist/socialist/secularist/ anti-Islam party was established in Damascus in 1941. It has remained western proxy against rising influence of Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East.

    Iran, being a ‘theocracy’, has no common grounds with Assad’s anti-religion Ba’athist regime. Iran’s only interest is to keep an Iran friendly regime in Damascus in order to keep the Syria-Hizbullah channel open. Lebanese Islamic resistance Hizbullah is the only Arab militia which has defeated Jewish army in 2006.

    https://rehmat1.com/2015/10/04/should-israel-worry-about-russian-strikes-in-syria/

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  18. I’m certainly no expert, but in an all out war, wouldn’t it be likely that Russia would sink the entire Turkish fleet with missiles and advanced torpedoes?

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  19. I can only believe that Putin and Putin’s military advisers are not stupid and have gamed these things out.

    Perhaps the contingent at Khmeinin is meant to be a sacrificial offering.

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  20. It would seem to me that Turkey has the upper hand in any war with Russia in Syria because Turkey can control shipping through the Bosporus, and the logistics of supplying Russian troops in Syria by other routes seem both complicated and expensive.

    When real war starts the issue of “expensive–not expensive”, while important, is usually replaced with the issue of “feasible–not feasible”. In the end Pskov and Ivanovo Paratroop divisions, as a warm-up, could be deployed pretty fast and, I am sure, Syria wouldn’t hesitate to ask for it. But, in the case, of real escalation, Russia has what Turkey doesn’t–true stand-off weapons. But, I hope, it will not come down to that.

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  21. Hi concern for Muslims in Greece was touching as well.

    I wonder if he has ever shed a tear for all those boys and women were raped by the forces of Mehmet II in 1453?

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  22. Hey Homer

    Agreed. Hezbollah scored a decisive victory over Israel in 2006.

    Nasrallah has been celebrating this victory while hiding in his underground bunker ever since.

    Sherm

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  23. [Even if the Russians and their Syrian/Iranian/Hezbollah allies win a battle here and there it is irrelevant.]

    The grapes you say are sour, Sherm, are actually even sweeter than you fear.

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  24. wouldn’t it be likely that Russia would sink the entire Turkish fleet with missiles and advanced torpedoes?

    No torpedoes are needed. The first salvo at the naval bases can have as many as 100 cruise missiles in it, the rest will be dealt with anti-shipping Onyx, Kalibr and Vulcans.

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  25. Yes. In war wealth is no longer measured in money. He who controls enough resources to keep fighting is rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

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  26. This sounds very plausible. Could you elaborate by including a factor of nuclear weaponry into your analysis and prediction? There is one aspect that is not often mentioned, namely, that while the populations in the Middle East and Europe (including Russian Federation) have been living with the stressful thoughts of the WWIII, the US population is blissfully oblivious to the approaching horrors.

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  27. North Korea is a socialist state? The basically Alawite regime of Assad & Son took over by stealth, they can hardly rule as Alawites , because they are a tiny minority. Ba’athist would cover Saddam’s Iraq too. Neighbouring countries are natural enemies, and a country on the far side on an enemy is a natural ally.

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  28. “..this is all part of an “AngloZionist” conspiracy.”
    No doubt. As the history shows, till very recently Russian Federation had been building mutually profitable relationships with Turkey. Then the US/Israeli plan of isolation of Russian Federation re Turkey was modified and applied with great success (see the increased danger of WWIII). It is also impossible to imagine the Middle Eastern kingdoms behaving aggressively towards Syria without the US/Israel encouragement. The tender cares by the Israeli medical personal for the Syrian jihadis were in no way an accident, as well as Israel’s’ profiteering on the ISIS-supplied oil. Both Israel and the US refused to ally with Russia in creating a unified front against ISIS and to form a modern-day analogy to the western anti-Nazi alliance in the 20th century. Could you think of any reason why Israel does not want to see ISIS defeated? And who can forget the Golan Heights of the Greater Israel and the ziocons’ considerable influence on the US Congress.

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  29. Unfortunately, the “Adelson-owned cuckservative Rubio, Hiligula, and other Cuban cuck” are not only the ignoramuses and psychopaths that are unable to comprehend the consequences of the WWIII (Turkey will be perceived for what it has become – a patsy of the US oligarchy), but they are also the marionettes devoid of any independent thinking. Because the war is necessary for war-profiteers, i.e., weapon-manufacturers and banksters, we are living on an edge right now. Two aspects make the situation particularly dangerous: the globally deadly force of nuclear weaponry and the absence of any democratic control over the profiteering decision of the power-and-money obsessed maniacs that are in charge in the US and Israel.

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  30. NATO will back Turkey. War is very good for the profiteers who have the most influence over U.S. policy. War is not seen at all by policymakers as a downside, whatever Potemkin democracy populations think. The neocons ensconced in every important decision-making position truly believe war and belligerence can only have positive outcomes in a strategic military situation where the power they wield far outweighs what Russia can bring to bear. Of course there is the nuclear option, but they are willing to play that game of chicken believing that Russia will blink before it contemplates mutually assured destruction, and so they can prevail – the bet is that the Russian leadership is more rational and temperate than they. A kind of Samson Option thinking has come to pervade western leadership diktat – as policy has become psychologically influenced by the de facto Israeli alliance that is central to neocon policy – so that American methods as well as objectives have conflated with Israel’s. Not walking softly and also brandishing that very big stick.

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  31. Why Israel gave the green light to Putin’s move to Syria in September 2015? Israel Air Force has 400 F-16 and F-15 fighter planes. How many planes or S-300/400 missiles Russia has in Syria? Clearly Russia is at Israel’s mercy. It is possible that the ultimate plan was to trap Russia in Syria and conflict them with Turkey. It is also possible that Israel is using Russia to put pressure on the US. What Putin wants to get form it? Does he think that he will outplay Netanyahu ? Or is he Netanyahu’s bitch?

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  32. I can only believe that Putin and Putin’s military advisers are not stupid and have gamed these things out.

    They may have “gamed these things out,” but if they are wise, they will be aware of the vast uncertainties that any war involves, or as Winston Churchill commented:

    Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.

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  33. Turkey hosts hundreds of US tactical nuclear weapons, which are presumably under US/NATO control, not Turkish Army control. Whoever crosses the nuclear threshold, is almost certainly initiating an all-out nuclear war. Things can run out of control quickly, but NATO will not set out to use nuclear weapons. As usual, the side which loses the first salvos, may then go nuclear to avenge, is even likely to.

    When I wrote of a massive attack, I thought of an attack which would overwhelm a singular S400, similar to what Karlin mentioned, a massive bombardment using hundreds of missiles at the same time.

    But, the key is a false flag which would drag the whole of NATO into a conventional war against Russia. It does not even have to be a highly sophisticated false flag, the NATO country “leaders” are total puppets of the US, so it just broadly needs to look like a Russian vile act under the usual Western truckloads of MSM bull.

    Yet, any attack on Russia would cost both sides dearly, Turkish army would be taken several notches down, with very large troop and armor losses. Therefore, posturing by Turkey is more likely than an attack. The question is what would Russia do, if Turkey moved troops and armor into Northern Syria – would it defend or start screaming in the UN, which is close to nothing. This is the calculation that Erdogan has to make – is Russia willing to defend Syria against a real army, instead of riff-raff which terrorizes civilians.

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  34. In summary, the most likely attack scenario is a false flag immediately followed by a massive surprise air attack on the Russian airports and air defenses in Syria.

    Would this not naturally lead to a missile attack on, and sinking of, the “two aircraft carriers near Syria”, with the possibility of a tactical nuke on the US airbase at Incirlik ?

    After that, I’m not sure what the next step to Armageddon would be, but while waiting for it would sure be a tense moment.

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  35. “Turkey and Russia are natural enemies”
    Since when? Since two years ago? It is always fascinating to hear from a zionist the qualifications for being “natural enemies” (particularly when so many Jews live or express desire to live in Germany inhabited by the “very bad Germans”). For example, the “future intentions” between Russia and Turkey had included building a pipeline together, which meant a long-term project involving mutual cooperations for many years to come. And would not it be better for fighting ISIS if RF and Turkey stayed friendly? But the RF-Turkey cooperation would have affected certain others’ baseline. These certain others’ aspirations are inseparable from the US and Israel plans.
    Just a food for thought: Are not Middle Eastern jihadis the “natural enemies” of Israel? If yes, then why Israel has been nurturing wounded ISIS fighters and why the US and Israel have refused to create a coalition of the willing with Russian federation (that is obviously able to fight) to fight ISIS? http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.679269

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  36. Hi Sherm,

    Little Jew, you are positively ecstatic today – sniggering and chortling over the possibility of a couple billion of your enemies at war. (Only five billion more to go.) Blood, blood, and more blood. Muslims and Christian all killing each other. Does it get any better for you Jew?

    Congratulations to your Big Jews – they have the leaders of all these countries working for them, against the best interests of their own people. USA, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi, and Turkey.

    What tribal pride you Little Jew must have – for sure, Twenty First century war is totally Big Jew inspired — Art

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  37. The situation with Turkey is rapidly getting out of control: not only have the Turks conducted artillery strikes across the Syrian border, Turkey has refused to comply with its obligations under the Open Skies Treaty and refused to let a Russian surveillance aircraft overfly Turkey.

    Are the Russians morons? Why would they want to fly over Turkish airspace, so soon after the Turks deliberately shot down a Russian jet? Why would the Russians trust Turkish assurances of safe passage, even if the Turks were offering them?

    Tell us how stupid the Russians really are, Saker. Inquiring minds want to know.

    The AngloZionists are experts at unleashing crazed ideologues (Wahabis in the Middle-East and Nazis in the Ukraine)

    ? How is anyone but the Saudis responsible for Wahhabism?

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  38. Hunsdon: Rehmat is a moron.

    I wonder if he has ever shed a tear for all those boys and women were raped by the forces of Mehmet II in 1453?

    Don’t bother. Rehmat’s the kind of scum who left the Muslim world to live in the West, so he could idealize the Muslim world from afar. He doesn’t care that Muslims practiced widespread castration of the great many black slaves they imported into the Islamic realm.

    Can someone explain why surveillance flights would be remotely necessary in an era of satellites that can photograph the entire world down to a scale of inches?

    The Era of Total Satellite Coverage is a Hollywood myth. The coverage is never 24/7, only sporadic.

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  39. Another surveillance satellite tip: the closer in the lenses are focused, the less territory they can see. If you focused them all in close enough to resolve an inch, the total amount of territory you’d be looking at would be very small.

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  40. “Ziocons”

    Wow, you’re pretty clever. I never heard that one before.

    Did you just make that up?

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  41. Satellites have very fixed and predictable paths.
    You know exactly when they will be over you, so you hide things.
    Also, since satellites are that far up, the pictures they take at an angle or directly above are highly subject to interpretation.

    If you arrange objects to give the proper shadows and such, you can make things appear as things they are not. Soviets were masters of that during the cold war: after the U2 was shot down, US had to rely on satellites. As was shown later, they missed a lot.

    An observation flight has some unpredictability.
    And specialists sitting and observing with different resolution binoculars can pick up a lot.
    Nothing can replace a pair of trained eyes observing in 3D and a trained brain to interpret what the eyes see in real time.

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  42. Speaking of clever, Sherm, rather than latching on to one word in annamarina’s thoughtful comment, why not address the substance of it?

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  43. They may have “gamed these things out,” but if they are wise, they will be aware of the vast uncertainties that any war involves, or as Winston Churchill commented:

    Perhaps Churchill was simply cribbing from Napoleon’s and Hitler’s notes.

    Capisce?

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  44. Excellent response. Thank you.

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  45. This is probably a dumb question but why wouldn’t Russia just nuke Turkey? Afraid of NATO?

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  46. “.. is Russia willing to defend Syria against a real army..”

    This is a question that looks into the heart of the matter. The Hegemon has a sense of omnipotence but as you wrote “things can run out of control quickly,” and this out-of-control and fateful moment could be caused not by an elaborate false-flag operation but a simple human sentiment or a software mistake. The enormous dreadnought of the US empire could create its own catastrophic failure – and take the humankind along with it to extinction.
    Most likely there are various shelters that have been designed and maintained for the “elites” in case of the nuclear catastrophe; yet the planet will never be the same, which means that the arsonists are not able to control the future of their progeny. It looks like the whole organism of the global human colony has been suffering a terrible disease manifesting in dangerous inflammation (wars) and cancerous growth (financial sector). The problem is, the world society does not have effective mechanisms for correcting the situation, such as a working system of international laws and the real power of vox populi. The oligarchy might have succeeded in depriving people of power to influence the important decisions, but the price for the unaccountability on the top is the inability of a society to quickly correct dangerous developments and to find effective solutions for restoring the overall health of the society. This means that the oligarchy is doomed as well.

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  47. Hi Little Art,

    Kinda cool how the Jews can control the USA, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi (sic) Arabia and Turkey.

    I wonder if they also control your trailer park.

    Sherm

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  48. The Muslims in Greece are still paying the price of Greek hatred toward Islam.

    Well maybe then Turks should just have let the Greeks alone. Did you ever think of that?

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  49. ? How is anyone but the Saudis responsible for Wahhabism?

    Isn’t this what the CIA, Saudi Intelligence and the Pakistani ISI were doing in Afghanistan in the 70s and 80s? Most of the money for the mujaheddin and the madrasas came from the Saudis but we were there encouraging it.

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  50. Russia missed its chance when its jet was shot down.

    Russia should have immediately retaliated and shot down a Turkish jet or attacked a Turkish air base or radar installation.

    NATO would have done nothing because it knows that Turkey provoked the confrontation.

    So Putin missed his chance: Russia was attacked; Russia did not fight back. The economic boycott against Turkey is hurting Russia more than Turkey.

    Also, Putin said at the time that Turkey “stabbed him in the back” as if he had considered Erdogan a friend. Turkey and Russia, traditional enemies, were now FRIENDS?

    My point: Putin is rather stupid.

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  51. The US pulled out of Incirlik after the Su-24 incident the carriers are in the gulf, not near Syria in the Mediterranean. The carriers were only near Syria in transit to the gulf.

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  52. You mean, it was wrong that Russia did not play the US script?

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  53. No, Russia is not at Israel’s mercy.

    If you were a pilot, would you want to fly into an area protected by S300, S400 and Pantsir air-defense systems? Of course you wouldn’t. Russia undoubtedly has enough missiles there that a great percentage of the pilots wouldn’t be going home; not to mention the SU-35s and other planes.

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  54. There’s a big problem with what you said about Turkey controlling the Bosporus, Giuseppe; Russia has a much more powerful Navy .. equipped with far advanced weapons technology.
    Additionally, Russia also has a sufficient naval presence south of the Bosporus – in the Mediterranean, off the Syrian coast – equipped with the same advanced weapons technology. All Russia need do to force Turkey to keep the Bosporus open to shipping without firing a shot would be to do what it had done to the USS Donald Cook last year, but with a big difference .. send in a small squadron of its best fighter jets equipped with electronic jamming devices .. and, those Turkish ships would scurry away as the Donald Cook had done.

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  55. Kinda cool how the Jews can control the USA, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi (sic) Arabia and Turkey.

    I wonder if they also control your trailer park.

    No Sherm — my trailer park is peaceful — thanks for your concern — Art

    p.s. Did you hear that the English are tearing down Buckingham Palace and replacing it with a holocaust shrine. Ya – all the politicians left and right gave a 10-minute giant cheer in Parliament when it was announced. Just a little gift to the Queen’s bankers. Little Jew – how proud you must be.

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  56. The balance of air power isn’t nearly so one-sided as it seems from looking at the numbers alone. The F-16 is a multi-role fighter mainly suited for ground attack, not a dedicated air superiority fighter. It is also a generation behind. The F-16 fleet would suffer greatly if opposed by S-300 and S-400 area denial systems, Su-34 and Su-35 fighters, and Tor short-range mobile air defenses. And, as you point out, it is unlikely that the Russian forces deployed to Syria would be the only ones involved.

    Among the potential axes for a Turkish ground assault, south towards Khmeinin would be the one where their forces would be most vulnerable, even while still in Turkey. Turkey would also not have the last word on how wide the war becomes. That could easily cost them the eastern Kurdish regions.

    Erdogan has tapped into a lot of deep Turkish sentiment, but if following that sentiment leads to a disastrous confrontation with Russia more rational considerations might prevail.

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  57. A story of the US actions to destabilize Syria with the help of fanatical jihadis:

    http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2016/02/syria-natos-last-desperate-options-in.html

    An excerpt: “The idea of carving out a buffer zone from Syrian territory also goes back as far as 2012 when it became apparent that Libya-style regime change would be difficult if not impossible to achieve quickly. … With NATO aircover, terrorists could safely launch operations deeper into Syrian territory, slowly expanding both the buffer zone and NATO’s defacto no-fly zone. Eventually, it was planned, the buffer zones would lead directly to the collapse of the government in Damascus.
    As Syrian forces with Russian aircover moved into northern Aleppo, reports across the Western media complained that infrastructure underwritten by Western governments was being destroyed. This infrastructure, including bakeries literally run by Al Qaeda using flour supplied by the US government, was part of Brookings’ [Brooking Institution] plan to “make these zones governable.”
    In short, the US has been waging a war of aggression against the sovereign state of Syria by empowering and supporting materially the known terrorist organizations. So much for 9/11 and “war on terror.”

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  58. If we are really lucky we will get to see if you are correct and Anatoly was simply trolling the Turks.

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  59. Kinda cool how the Jews can control the USA, UK, Germany, France, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi (sic) Arabia and Turkey.

    Apart from the Arab countries, the Israel Lobby has a strong influence on the other countries on your list:

    USA – AIPAC

    UK – BICOM, CFI, LFI, LDFI

    Germany – “Anti-German” Movement

    http://jcpa.org/article/the-anti-germans-the-pro-israel-german-left/

    France – CRIF

    http://youtu.be/tCrQvsaNU58

    Russia –

    Turkey –

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  60. “But these U.S. allies, driven by fierce regional ambitions, appear to be putting immense pressure on the Obama administration to decide if it is prepared to lose Syria. Though Carter said he welcomed the Saudi declaration he made no commitment about U.S. ground forces. But Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri told al-Arabiya TV that a decision could be made to intervene at a NATO summit in Brussels next week. Carter said the matter would be on the agenda. ”

    “Former U.S. national security adviser and current Obama adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said last October in the Financial Times that, “The Russian naval and air presences in Syria are vulnerable, isolated geographically from their homeland. They could be ‘disarmed’ if they persist in provoking the U.S.”

    The U.S. cannot likely stand by and watch Russia win in Syria. At the very least it wants to be on the ground to meet them at a modern-day Elbe and influence the outcome.”

    https://consortiumnews.com/2016/02/06/risking-world-war-iii-in-syria/

    Either US goes down with Arab Royals and Turkey Sultan or it could let them sink . US choice is going to be the product of an insane dimwited policy .
    It has no good ending .

    Neocons want this war .http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/03/national-greatness_imperative

    So does the evangelic .

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  61. Anonymous
    says:
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    If Turkey and Saudi Arabia invade, Iran can supply the ground troops.

    Even if the S400 gets overwhelmed by missles, increasing air power in the region can be done just by sending in more planes.

    After all, Syria is the battle for all the marbles. If Russia loses here Ukraine comes next then mainland Russia.

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  62. “..a modern-day Elbe…”
    This is rich from the promoters and supporters of Ukrainian neo-Nazi (and “organizers” of radical jihadis in the Middle East).

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  63. How fast do you think you can load S300 or S400 battery after it launches all of its six missiles?Russia has only few Su-30 and now few Su-35 in Syria (no more than 10!). The remaining (Su-24 and Su-34) are striker fighters that are no match for F-16 and F-15 of which Israel has 400 and Turkey has over 200. Russia forces in Syria are a sitting duck. Don’t you get it?

    The only reason they are in Syria because they have Israel’s OK. They had a tentative Turkey’s OK too. That’s why after the Su-24 mishap Putin was talking about the stab in the back. Enemies don’t stab you in the back. Only friends do. So the question what is Israel’s interest in having Russia forces in its neighborhood still stands.

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  64. “Russia has said its attacks target ‘terrorists’, but in practice its bombing campaigns have focused far more closely on Assad’s diverse enemies than on Isis, which in some areas is fighting the regime’s enemies.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/06/aleppo-under-bombardment-fears-siege-and-starvation

    It doesn’t matter whether its an attack on Iraq or Libya or sanctions on Iran or the assault on Assange, the western press need what the war planners are thinking or what the leaders who populate the pages of these papers are thinking they know what the guardian of the Deep State is promoting . They have been conditioned to salivate like the Pavlovian dog .They don’t need teleprompters . They know like the caged bird how to parrot the unsaid official lines even before the thought emerges among some of the officials

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  65. .”Western press knows”
    Sorry .

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  66. {The only reason they are in Syria because they have Israel’s OK. They had a tentative Turkey’s OK too. }

    Turks are besides themselves with impotent rage because their plans of destroying Syria and gobbling up more Syrian land are turning to s___.
    Their Turkmen terrorist kin are being pulverized by Russian AF.
    Don’t you get it ?
    What Turkish OK are you talking about ?
    Russia needed only the OK of Syrian Government.

    And little bully-boy Israel can terrorize Gaza, but if push comes to shove, it will be turned into a radioactive wasteland. Same with Turkey.
    Russia is not going to match jet fighter against jet fighter in the theater.
    Russia will stand off and wipe out targets in Israel and Turkey from the Caspian Sea.
    Russia has 10,000 nuclear warheads.
    And Russia is so massive, it will survive even a massive nuke strike.

    What will be remain of Israel?

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  67. As you have mentioned the 10000 warheads the Talleyrand’s quote about the sitting on bayonets came to my minds. Putin will not use nuclear weapons. He can be dealt with like salami. One slice at the time. Already Turkey took one slice off and Putin did nothing.

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  68. Maybe Erdogan think the US or EU will help him out against the Russkies. In my view, that’s pretty stupid. The EU is busy with new “Europeans” and look how well the US helped Ukraine. MHO…

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  69. Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: does Erdogan want war with Russia? | Uprootedpalestinians's Blog
    says:
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    […] on February 6, 2016 by martyrashrakat February 06, 2016 This article was written for the Unz Review The situation with Turkey is rapidly getting out of control: not only have the Turks conducted […]

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  70. For the Saker.

    The second link to St. Paisios you posted is clearly a machine translation and thus, largely incomprehensible. Do you know Greek or know someone who would be able to do a real translation?

    I wanted to learn it, there is so much not translated from Church history and the Eastern Roman Empire, but am too busy. Sad.

    For Mr. Unz.

    I posted as Che Guava for a while, with a real e-mail address.

    Checked on a search engine, mine were the only comments here with that user name.

    I used the pseudonym well before any others, on another site.

    Every time I try to post, I get a response like ‘we have an established commenter with that user name’.

    I suspect that ‘established commenter’ is me, since I have several posts under that name, and the search engine did not find any others.

    Don’t know if it is a software screw-up or there was someone with the same u-name, posting this here because there is no link to site control.

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  71. Another quote that came to mind: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Sun Tsu.

    You wanna play famous quotes? Anytime.

    “….and Putin did nothing.”

    [1,300 hotels in Turkish resorts up for sale amid tourism woes]

    http://www.todayszaman.com/business_1300-hotels-in-turkish-resorts-up-for-sale-amid-tourism-woes_411102.html

    [Russia pounds Turkmen areas in Syria, hundreds flee to Turkey]

    http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_russia-pounds-turkmen-areas-in-syria-hundreds-flee-to-turkey_411096.html

    The hurt is just beginning.

    Russia plays by its own rules. Not what others expect. Or how. Or when.
    Its enemies have always expected her to play their game, and have been brutally surprised.
    Instead of quoting Talleyrand, quote Napoleon. Or Hitler.

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  72. 1. Don’t forget that turkey has never defeated Russia in a war.
    2. Ottoman and Seljuk Turks invaded Minor Asia and conducted ethnic cleansing of all non muslim and non turkish peoples.
    3. Islam/Judaism are a creation of men and not a revelation of a “god” to his prophets see
    Did Moses Exist?The Myth of the Israelite Lawgiver D.M. Murdock. This book destroys any truth in Moses and thereby any truth in the torah and quran
    Though there is a true spirituality….. but not in the two previously mentioned.
    4. Why would Greeks want a mosque in Athens????????????????

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  73. Even for the low standards of the Hasbara, you are a uniquely stupid individual. This is why Israel is such a totally hopeless country – because it is full of fu**-ups such as you. You interpret someone’s avoidance of war as weakness. So when one day he fuses your relatives in Israel with sand into glass, what then – is that because of anti-Semitism, or because of your moronic aggressiveness?

    Israel simply does not have a future, at least not in a civilized world – because it is a country of psychopaths.

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  74. If you think the “Ottoman empire’s hatred of the Communist Jewish controlled Soviet Union” has any significance or reality you ought to stick to things you know something about – the best burger shops in Karachi perhaps? The Kemalists took power in late 1920 with some help from Soviet subsidies and the Soviet Union was one of the first two countries to recognise the new regime. By then the Sultinate existed in name only. You are spouting rubbish which confirms the rightness of the reaction you get on these blogs which is that you are a bumbling ignorant propagandist with no credit.

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  75. La drôle de Guerre Mondiale – ANTI-MONDIALISATION
    says:
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    […] Il y en a effet, des références dans ce sens, qu’elles viennent de ConsortiumNews, du Saker-US ou du Washington’s Blog (de dernier élargissant le cercle). Dans notre même texte référencé […]

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  76. I have a couple of questions for you. The first relates to your prima facie very ill-informed statements about the financial system being totally broke (whose? the whole world’s including Russia?), debt and – this really puzzled me – “the Western need for war to be able to repudiate debts”. How would that work? Can you explain it by any historical example which doesn’t merely recount one of the numerous instances of banana republics and other tinpot little countries reneging on their debts?

    And what’s this nonsense about there being no money for pensions, police or social welfare? Haven’t you heard of Quantitative Easing or maybe you don’t understand that it involves the creation of money very cheaply, especially for the United States which owns the world’s main reserve currency? Do you know of any government pensions not being paid in full except in Greece? Is the FBI short of money to recruit? Or EU police forces? Of course there is and will be so much money created that inflation will again resume its centuries old task of relieving governments from the full burden of debt.

    My other question is whether you get a regular stipend for your work as a blogger or just occasional fees or expenses. It seems apparent from some of your areas of special knowledge that you have Russian connections and I wonder whether it is seriously remunerative to be part of or to aid Russia’s again massive propaganda apparatus or whether it is just pocket money for doing something one enjoys. Are their performance reviews? Payments by results? (A business school might like to pique the interest of students who need to know about badly designed incentive systems which can be rorted. How about 50 cents a word one can get published in The Unz Review….).

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  77. How would it affect your interesting points if I were to point out something which I am sure you could verify very quickly, namely the unimportance of the 3D aspect of a human’s binocular vision for the purposes you were discussing? When my formerly dominant right eye was disabled by a big druse in the middle of the retina from helping me hit moving tennis balls my left eye took over very satisfactorily and an ophthalmologist explained that the binocular 3D distance judging only extended out a few feet. I’ve never tested my distance judging with two eyes against the accuracy with just one but I think the trigonometry guarantees that it doesn’t matter much if you only use one eye.

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  78. Thanks for interest:

    I am no ophthalmologist. Neither any kind of specialist in that area.
    But I know the brain has an amazing capacity to compensate, like in your case.
    But I also know that predators, which includes us and our ancestors on the African prairies, evolved eyes in the front able to see great distances in binocular vision, to spot and track prey or other predators. Whereas angulate prey, for instance, evolved eyes on the sides of the head to cover a wider area, but only see clearly at relatively short distances: no need to see too far, just as close to 360-degrees as possible, and far enough to give adequate time to bolt.

    So one amateur scientist’s opinion vs that of one ophthalmologist and your own experience.

    Going back to the observation flight: an observer with natural (uncorrected) visual acuity of 20/10 and two eyes can spot things that a one-eyed person would have difficulty with.

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  79. I do not see any commenters pointing out the obvious. Without Russian and Iranian gas Turkey shuts down.

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  80. Here’s a primer with sources and links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Paisios_of_Mount_Athos

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  81. My point: Putin is rather stupid.

    My point: Putin’s smarter than you are.

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  82. NOPE darling – the only one who took a state by “stealth” were your European Jewish ancestors from Native Muslim and Christian Palestinians.

    Why N. Korea being “socialist state” wetted your pants? Don’t you know Israel’s first president Dr. Chaim Weisman was a terrorist who was former president of Soviet Socialist Party.

    This ‘military racism’ pact between the mainstream Jews and Orthodox minority was negotiated by the current Israeli president Shimon Peres on the orders of Israel’s first prime minister David Ben Gurion. On the creation of the Zionist entity in 1948 – the Zionist leaders were affraid that the anti-Zionist Orthodox Jewish communities may decide to move out of Palestine and set-up their religious schools (Yeshivot) in the US, Canada and Europe. Under Shion’s deal, the Orthodox were promised not to be forced into Israeli military service.

    With the growing population Orthodox communities (an average of six kids per family) in Israel – its military is running short of soldiers to fight Hizbullah, Syria or Iran. Therefore, there is a war going on between the majority of Israeli Zionist Jewish population and the Orthodox minority who refuses to serve in the army but enjoy equal political and social benefits as the Zionists who risk their lives fighting Hamas, Hizbullah and Muslim resistance groups in India, Somalia, Sudan, Bahrain, the US, Canada, France, Libya, etc.

    https://rehmat1.com/2012/05/22/isreal-army-hunts-4500-jew-deserters/

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  83. You seem to be more stupid than kosher Pope Francis, who claims that Christianity is an offshoot of Judaism. Like Christ, the Prophet Muhammad (pbuh) had no Israelite roots.

    The National Catholic Reporter (June 16, 2014) quoted the kosher Pope Francis saying: ‘Inside every Christian is a Jew‘ during an interview published by Spanish daily La Vanguardia newspaper earlier this month.

    Francis said: “Every day, I pray with the Psalms of David. My prayer is Jewish, then I have the Eucharist, which is Christian.”

    Jesuit Francis has proved Jewish historian and scholar, Benjamin Freedman, to be right for claiming that Christian Bible was corrupted by the Crypto-Jews.

    https://rehmat1.com/2014/06/19/pope-francis-inside-every-christian-is-a-jew/

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  84. People rarely see the obvious and prefer to complicate things. Since Turkey gets 60% of its gas from Russia and 20% from Iran a war with Russia is a non starter.

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  85. Russia must avoid war. Her weakness is an objective fact.

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  86. Isn’t this what the CIA, Saudi Intelligence and the Pakistani ISI were doing in Afghanistan in the 70s and 80s? Most of the money for the mujaheddin and the madrasas came from the Saudis but we were there encouraging it.

    That’s pretty weak tea. We were supporting an insurgency against the occupying Soviet military, but that was pretty much the extent of it. Saud’s been crapping their wahhabism all over SWANA for decades.

    Another quote that came to mind: “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” Sun Tsu.

    Sounds like more White “gentiles” (Jewish word for heathen) should read Sun Tzu.

    Even for the low standards of the Hasbara, you are a uniquely stupid individual. This is why Israel is such a totally hopeless country – because it is full of fu**-ups such as you. You interpret someone’s avoidance of war as weakness. So when one day he fuses your relatives in Israel with sand into glass, what then – is that because of anti-Semitism, or because of your moronic aggressiveness?

    Zionists are fond of calling Muslims cowards when they don’t attack, and savages when they do.

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  87. Back in December, both Avery and I called out Rehmat for making the same misstatement about the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union. See http://www.unz.com/jpetras/recep-tayyip-erdogan-portrait-of-a-backstabbing-pasha/#comment-1270728 He never responded to either Avery’s challenge or mine.

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  88. Nazi Germany got a lot from the USSR, right up until Barbarossa.

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  89. So when Russia acts, that is a sign of strength. When it does nothing, that is also a sign of strength.

    Is that your position?

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  90. Most Israelis are not so orthodox as to refuse military service. Israeli special forces are full of religious Jews, and the army has no need to employ human wave attacks.

    Israel’s problem is demographic all right: too many Palestinians in the West Bank. Israel can easily use the an ISIS overthrow of the Hashemite Jordan regime as an excuse; intervene in the civil war in Jordan then and use the chaos to expel (into Jordan) the West Bank Palestinians . Then Israel will retrench and retreat behind fortified borders. On past form Assad will allow ISIOS to move on the former Southern front rebel area of Daraa, which the Russians have blasted him into. Assad is facing disaster and desperate; the best way for him now is to bring everyone into the conflict by using ISIS as a cat’s paw.

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  91. I think the idea that the Russian direct involvement in Syria was an act against the West, while appealing to the ethno-russian bravado, does not fit with facts on the ground.

    The Syrian war has been raging on for a few years now. While no doubt the Russians, Iranians and the Hezbollah has been involved unofficially (as has been for Turkey, Saudis, Israel and the West), the Russians have not stepped in openly even while the Syrian army was facing some pretty grim times. This is understandable. If the Russians wanted to be directly involved militarily against the will of the West, all the U.S. had to do was to start supplying the Rebels with more advanced missiles. Russian planes would start to fall out of the sky and they would have another Afghanistan on their hands.

    So when did the Russians step in? It happened in around Oct. of 2015. What was the pivotal event that triggered this action? As you might recall, the war was grinding on, with the assistance of their allies, the Syrian government was standing its ground. One event though, stood out as the precursor to the Russian involvement, massive refugees flowing to the West. Here is what I think happened.

    Initially, the war against the Syrian government was in the interest of the West. A pipeline from Saudi Arabia via Turkey to Syria is a better option than a pipeline from Iran through Iraq to Syria. The Obama administration calculated that while they do not want to have direct military involvement, they wanted the Saudis and the Turks to succeed in overthrowing the Syrian government and install someone more compliant with this outcome. If it meant a large number of internally displaced Syrians, that was a “price” that the U.S. was willing to “pay”. What changed the calculus was the outflow of refugees to Western Europe. This could, in time, destabilize Western Europe. How to bring this situation to a point to stabilize the refugee flow? Obviously, the U.S., being so involved on one side of the fight, cannot switch sides publicly. That would be very bad for the optics. Nor can it rely on its “allies” like the Saudi and Turkey, as this conflicts with their self interest. I think it was under this conditions that a phone call might have been made to Putin from Washington DC.

    The behavior of the U.S. since the Russian direct involvement fits this narrative. If the U.S. is so unhappy with the Russian involvement, there are a lot of actions that could be taken to trip them up. Instead, I see none of that on the ground. The U.S. has pretty much stay out of the Russian’s way(their rhetoric not withstanding).

    I think the Russians have been asked to salvage the situation on the ground by the U.S., perhaps against the will of Turkey and the Saudis.

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  92. Glad to see there’s someone else who would be irritated by that common solecism about 20-20 vision! Alcohol free healthy bush Aborigines (if any can be found) ought to be recruited and trained for their 20-8 eyesight.

    Actually mine was 20-12 not so long ago and maybe better before that but my wife who has always had appalling eyesight problems beats me into a cocked hat in noticing things, whether the furniture details and layout in a room or a bird or animal in a tree. For a long time she wouldn’t have wasted her time seeking to hit even a static ball so I don’t know that my vast superiority at e.g. tennis is real in the sense of rooted in eye construction, optic nerves and the brain.

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  93. Zionists are fond of calling Muslims cowards when they don’t attack, and savages when they do.

    We killed 1500 Gazans in the last war, mostly civilians, and caused damage that will take, at a minimum, 30 years to repair.

    Not responding to that is cowardice, period. Hizbollah has an inventory of 100,000 rockets pointed at targets inside Israel. They could have done something to lessen the pressure on, or at least avenge, their brothers in Gaza but they did absolutely nothing. It was pathetic. I was embarrassed for them.

    Everybody knows that if Turkey, Iran or Morocco ever dared even harm one Jew in their lands that we would respond brutally. Yet when we kill literally thousands of Arabs/Muslims there is no response from the Arabs. Egypt and Jordan wouldn’t even break diplomatic relations with us, something even Latin American countries have had the guts to do.

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  94. What changed the calculus was the outflow of refugees to Western Europe.

    You have your chronology mixed up. The refugee exodus happened quite a few weeks after the Russian intervention not before. The main reason for Russian intervention was the loss of Idlib and the threat of Assad’s fall.

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  95. Occasionally a primate visits unz.com and graces us with his primate level opinion.

    While no doubt the Russians, Iranians and the Hezbollah has been involved unofficially

    The only scum which entered Syria by stealth is the Western scum. The people you list came at the invitation of a legitimate Syrian Government to help it fight the Western scum and their terrorist proxies. Perhaps a primate such as you is incapable of making a linguistic differentiation between “openly” and “directly” militarily involved. The Russians are quite openly but not directly or fully involved in the war.

    all the U.S. had to do was to start supplying the Rebels with more advanced missiles

    Another primate level opinion. Saudi Arabia has already supplied the terrorists on its payroll with Stinger MANPADs, whilst the Russian bombers strike from 6,000 meters, which is above the range of all but the latest Stingers. The US has been toying around with an idea of developing Stingers which it could switch off when it does not want them to be used against its own planes. Yet, this is still experimental and the US and NATO planes flying over Syria illegally would be under almost the same level of risk as the Russian planes.

    According to you, Turkish shoot-down a Russian bomber jet in a professionally organized action by the CIA counts as US covert support to the Russians?

    The rest of your “opinion” is such pie-in-the-sky speculation, which makes US look like an independent country making its own decisions. Nothing could be further from the truth. But how would a primate know that he belongs to the Israelis? Have you ever asked a monkey in a cage who his owner was? The US is still fighting for the Israeli interests. The flood of refugees is being blamed on the “Syrian regime” by the Israeli controlled Western media. Here is what Kerry just said to your Israeli masters: “An Exasperated John Kerry Throws In Towel On Syria: “What Do You Want Me To Do, Go To War With The Russians?!http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-07/exasperated-john-kerry-throws-towel-syria-what-do-you-want-me-do-go-war-russians.

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  96. I would not disagree that what you wrote would be a logical Russian relation for the destruction of its Khmeimim airbase by a wave of missiles launched from Turkey and from the aircraft carriers in the Gulf. However, to sink aircraft carriers, the Russians would need either nuclear torpedos or a wave of shore-to-ship missiles. I do not believe that the Russians will go nuclear if the West does not. But once the West uses the first tactical nuclear bomb, all bets will be off, the Armageddon can start.

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  97. Israel and Russia are being very careful with one another. Win or lose, war has a real cost for both sides, and the unpredictability of war can rapidly multiply that cost. Neither Russia nor Israel has any intention of going there. Not gonna happen. Deliberately not gonna happen.

    But it is clearly way more dangerous for Israel, totally unnecessary, and well, to put it bluntly, there is no upside that I can see for Israel or Russia. Consequently, the degree of stupidity that would have to prevail in the leadership of either country would be unfathomably impossible. The Jew has not been born who could be that stupid, and Putin is no slouch either.

    That said, Russia has Israel way overmatched. Ten minutes after any Israeli air action against Russian forces in Syria, and their wouldn’t be a single usable airfield in all of Israel, and ten minutes after that no functioning Israeli anti-aircraft installation. All accomplished with conventional weapons, no nukes.

    They’ll be no such conflict outside of a computer game.

    • Agree: Kiza
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  98. As long as you put a coherent argument, a challenge or a question, I will reply. As a compatriot you deserve that degree of respect from me.

    the Western need for war to be able to repudiate debts”. How would that work?

    You assume that West is not a bunch of banana republics. It is actually worse than a banana republic, the derogatory term which originated in the US to describe South and Central American countries it controlled. The banana republics had their government changed often, but they were not able to create money out of thin-air as the West does.

    And what’s this nonsense about there being no money for pensions, police or social welfare? Haven’t you heard of Quantitative Easing or maybe you don’t understand that it involves the creation of money very cheaply, especially for the United States which owns the world’s main reserve currency?

    This one is just brilliant and true. But, it misses my main point that such shannanigans have a limited life-time. As mentioned, even banana republics did not find prosperity in printing money. The endless QEs (a new one is in preparation after the invented US labor increase numbers) are bringing prosperity to US only thanks to 10 Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) in all oceans around the World. But the US has, in its wisdom, taken on Russia and China, thus the reserve currency status of US$ is now being challenged. The turmoils we see in the financial markets is the transition to a new stable state. With a medium success, the US Government speculators (US hedge funds lead by Soros) have been fighting against Yuan, to prevent the replacement of US$ as a world reserve currency.

    Do you know of any government pensions not being paid in full except in Greece

    This is where you lack basic information. The City of Detroit and the City of Chicago are bankrupt and cannot pay pensions to the police and the firemen. The US territory of Puerto Rico is also bankrupt. The US foreign debt is “only” $17T, but the uncovered liabilities and internal debts (pensions etc) are at least $225T. But you are correct that a collapse of the US financial system would probably cause a chain reaction, an avalanche of financial failures all around the World, any creditor of the US would lose. By far the worse fact is that despite its dire situation, the US keeps borrowing and printing more money every day to pay for its top-dog military, those 10 CSGs. In other words, the US has been milking the rest of the World to provide those foreigners with “protection” from themselves using its CSGs.

    As to my Russian connection, I am not interested in money for what I do, because then I would be no better than you and your Israeli trolls. My quest is for the truth. I hated the communist lies as much as I hate these Western regime lies. People of goodwill have to balance out the regime lies with the truth, just as human kindness has to balance the demonic evil for the World to survive. If your kind wins, then the Age of the Demon (Lucifer, Belzebub, Sathanus, Abaddon, Mammon etc) would begin. Some people believe that your demonic masters have already won, but I do not (lol). Would 250,000 Syrians have died if your demonic Israeli masters were not on the march?

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  99. We were supporting an insurgency against the occupying Soviet military, but that was pretty much the extent of it.

    Or so the propaganda goes. Actually it was actions by the Carter administration that brought the Soviet Army into Afghanistan. The CIA has been poking around every country on the periphery of the communist block looking to start trouble since the 50s.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/1998/01/15/how-jimmy-carter-and-i-started-the-mujahideen/

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  100. We killed 1500 Gazans in the last war, mostly civilians, and caused damage that will take, at a minimum, 30 years to repair.

    If you’re going to boast about how effectively Zionists “mowed the lawn” the last cycle, you should at least get the numbers straight:

    Between 2,142 and 2,310 Gazans were killed and between 10,626 and 10,895 were wounded (including 3,374 children, of whom over 1,000 were left permanently disabled). 66 Israeli soldiers, 5 Israeli civilians (including one child) and one Thai civilian were killed and 469 IDF soldiers and 261 Israeli civilians were injured. The Gaza Health Ministry, UN and some human rights groups reported that 69–75% of the Palestinian casualties were civilians; Israeli officials estimated that around 50% of those killed were civilians. On 5 August, OCHA stated that 520,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip (approximately 30% of its population) might have been displaced, of whom 485,000 needed emergency food assistance and 273,000 were taking shelter in 90 UN-run schools. The UN calculated that more than 7,000 homes for 10,000 families were razed, together with an additional 89,000 homes damaged, of which roughly 10,000 were severely affected by the bombing.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Israel–Gaza_conflict

    Tell me something, Greasy, were you one of the many Israelis who had carried their sofas to nearby hilltops to get a good view of the IDF slaughtering the Amalekites?

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  101. If you want to make a statement, you need to back this up with some facts. Here is a chart of the flow of refugees.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_migrant_crisis#/media/File:Sea_arrivals_to_Greece_and_Italy,_2015.png

    As you can see, it started climbing around June/July time frame and peaked at October. For some reason, at the time of the Russian direct involvement, this number started going down. Please do a few minutes of googling before you pull something out of your ass next time.

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  102. I don’t disagree that the Jews have a big influence on Washington and a lot of stuff were done on their behave. At the end of the day, the country must still think twice if the consequence is a destabilization of Western Europe. The shot down of the Russian plane may or or may not be done on behalf of the U.S., but still I think that there could be a lot more done by the U.S. to counter the Russians. The West (as some people had suggested), could declare a no fly zone. If the Turkish and Israeli planes could not fly, neither could the Russian planes, yet this was not done. I am just saying that there is a big discrepancy between the rhetoric and the actions of the Obama administration which suggested that there may be more than meets the eye.

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  103. Russia would do the world a favor by wiping out Israel AND Saudi Arabia.

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  104. 1. I’m not Israeli

    2. You’re thinking of Cast Lead in 2008, not whatever the 2012 war was called.

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  105. …but still I think that there could be a lot more done by the U.S. to counter the Russians. The West (as some people had suggested), could declare a no fly zone…

    As Avery adequately put it before – international politics is like a theater in which the main acting show is called “The International Law”. This main show is almost never observed by the West. For example, compare the UK reaction to a UN ruling on Aung San Suu Kyi and the UN ruling on Julian Assange – simply, the law applies to everybody else but it does not apply to us, the West. To paraphrase the famous Mao’s dictum – the International Law comes out of the barrel of the gun.

    Firstly, how would declaring a no-fly zone in which no-one could fly serve the West? Secondly, under which “International Law” would this be possible? Like most Western brainwashed, you are conveniently skipping the key point that under the standing “International Law”, the US, UK and their allies are flying and bombing illegally in Syria, whilst Russia is in Syria completely legally, at the invitation of a Syrian Government. Russia could legally deny US the right to bomb in Syria, but US could not legally deny the same to Russia. The West does not want to completely destroy the pretence of respecting the International Law, unless the payback is immediate and huge. Thus, your dream of a no-fly zone is unlikely to come through.

    But I get a whiff from your spelling that you may be of a Turkish extraction, and because you appear desperate for a no-fly zone in Syria. But, if Turkey attacks Syria, after a convenient false flag, your wish my come through courtesy of NATO. Once the Russian soldiers in Syria start dying from NATO airforce, we could see an even bigger Broadway hit called The Nuclear Armageddon.

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  106. There’s only one group that the Arabs hate more than Jews and that’s each other.

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  107. It may be a personal quirk but I find it difficult to place any reliance on anyone who is prone to outbursts of ridiculous exaggeration or plain nonsense like “Israel …. is a country of psychopaths”.

    Try as I might to interpret it as florid metaphor I couldn’t quite come at a version which could be part of the kind of rational argument or discussion that you were purportedly engaged in.

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  108. You don’t answer my question about the need for war so debts can be repudiated – not even a half-hearted try so perhaps you are tacitly dropping that curious idea. And that being so I wonder how it affects your assessment of the likelihood of war and of provocations aimed to cause one.

    As to the pension problems of American cities (and California provides even more scandalous examples of municipal profligacy) I should have made it clear that I was referring to national governments which have control of currencies (though Oops! In future I might have had to add to Greece any of the Eurozone countries). But I might have weaseled out of it by pointing out that lack of adequate funding of pension schemes is not necessarily the same as incurring debt except that it does justify your saying that some government bodies don’t have the money to pay pensions.

    I don’t know why you rabbit on, Jew/Israel obsessed, about hasbara and demonic [sic - literally???] Israeli masters. I couldn’t be more exclusively English, Scottish, Welsh, Norman and Irish in my ancestry for the last 1000 years. I have a few Jewish friends and they are very good friends and good people including some who are embarrassed by their compulsory association with Israel by being Jews and others who love Israel for all its evident imperfections. It doesn’t help your credit to make such wild suggestions with no basis. Though I suppose I could take confort in imagining that your reasoning is “he’s obviously learned and scholarly wiith a high IQ: chances are he’s Jewish” :-)

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  109. 1. I’m not Israeli

    Not Israeli? I guess I got confused when you used the royal “we” in your previous comment:

    We killed 1500 Gazans in the last war, mostly civilians, and caused damage that will take, at a minimum, 30 years to repair.”

    Now you know why MJ Rosenberg coined the term Israel firster.

    2. You’re thinking of Cast Lead in 2008, not whatever the 2012 war was called.

    No, based on your previous comment about “the last war,” I assumed you were referring to Operation Protective Edge in 2014.

    For the record, here are the figures for the 3 most recent major IDF operations:

    1. Operation Cast Lead (27 December 2008 – 18 January 2009)
    Total Pals killed: 1,417
    2. Operation Pillar of Defense (14–21 November 2012)
    Total Pals killed: 160
    3. Operation Protective Edge (8 July – 26 August 2014)
    Total Pals killed: 2,310

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  110. Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: Does Erdogan want war with Russia?
    says:
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    […] This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-seventeen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-does-erdogan-want-war-… […]

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  111. Primate’s diagnosis is quite clever, maybe too clever… very interesting POV I hadn’t considered though.

    Keep the troll-train running Rehmat; you know we love you.
    I was especially impressed by your chutzpah in wailing that there is no Mosque in Athens.

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  112. Exactly why should Athenians accept a shrine to Mahomet, considering that perhaps a third of them were expelled from a Mahometan nation then attempting to redeem itself? Would you accept a Church dedicated to God’s only begotten son in Riyadh?

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  113. Firstly, even if such cliche’s about Jews were true, you never exhibited that you were “obviously learned and scholarly wiith a high IQ”. It took you a while to put a coherent argument worth reading and responding to. In other words, your scatter sentences stopped making them worth reading after the first or the second. This is hardly a characteristic of someone “learned and scholarly” (I expect your reply that the fault was with me because I could not understand your level of “learned and scholarly” – lol).

    Secondly, I never wrote that you were Jewish or Zionist, then that you serve the Hasbara Zionists, that they are your masters. This is why (but only for easy-flow reasons) there is an expression Anglo-Zionists, whilst (without the easy-flow) it should be Zio-Anglos (bosses first, best servants next).

    Thirdly, I apologize for not answering one of your many questions, namely how I see that a war can lead to a repudiation of (Western) debts. The only reason I did not answer this is because it is a good question and it requires a good analysis with some historical examples (as you suggested yourself). In the shortest possible, if the West has a war with Russia and/or China:
    1) as a winner it would cancel all its debts to China and Russia and repay its debts to others (e.g. Japan) with war reparations imposed on Russia and China,
    2) as a loser it would be too devastated to repay anything for at least a generation.
    Naturally, the West would hope to win the war it starts, to clear up the slate and be ready for the new debts, because the majority of Western prosperity rests on trickery such as military domination, fractional reserve banking and similar.

    Let me give you one illustration of my last explanation – which profession is highly respected in China and is one of the last in university enrollments in our country? It is the engineering. This is because the Chinese are at the building stage in their development, whilst in our country the most demanded university place is in the law – to manipulate, steal and pillage.

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  114. This is an old CIA conspiracy con:
    firstly, call the opponent (Putin) a Hitler (Hitlary Clinton),
    secondly, call him a collaborator.

    Essentially, this is in preparation for a color revolution/government change in the targeted country – here Russia.

    So, one guy with a name ‘primate’ launches the idea, because even monkeys have such bright ideas, only the thick Russians do not click on to this obvious conspiracy right in front of their noses.
    A second one says – yes, you are right, strange alignment truly. Yes, Putin works for the US Government.

    Yup, it is truly a monkey business: monkey see, monkey write, monkey do.

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  115. Russian planes would start to fall out of the sky and they would have another Afghanistan on their hands.

    They should be so lucky. Impact of stingers was mostly in the western imagination, Russia left because Soviet Union collapsed and funding dried up, and the communist Afghan regime fell long after Russian withdrawal.

    Or so the propaganda goes. Actually it was actions by the Carter administration that brought the Soviet Army into Afghanistan. The CIA has been poking around every country on the periphery of the communist block looking to start trouble since the 50s.

    Tit for tat. Commies were always trying to stir up shit everywhere they could. E.g., what was the commies’ business in central America? Chile?

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  116. Saker,

    You know how the game is played now. Nobody did anything when Russia lobbed artillery into shells into Ukraine saving the “Novy-Rusian’s” skins. Do you think the world will do something now? The Ukrainian turn coats would have been hanging on lamp posts already. Of course the Turks are lying. What is Russia going to do when Turks start taking the flags off their uniforms and go into Syria? Or sending the Ukrainian’s NATO grade weapons? That is hybrid war. Get out of Syria now while there is still something left of your economy.

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  117. Bibi and Greasy Willy are psychopaths. Israel is a country of psychotics.

    ISRAELI PRE-TSD

    Within the condition of the Pre-Traumatic Stress Disorder (Pre TSD) , the stress is the outcome of a phantasmic event, an imaginary episode set in the future; an event that has never taken place. Unlike the PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) in which stress comes as the direct reaction to an event that (may) have taken place in the past, within the state of Pre-TSD, the stress is clearly the outcome of a potential event. Within the Pre-TSD, an illusion pre-empts reality and the condition in which the fantasy of terror is focussed is itself becoming grave reality. If it is taken to extremes, even an agenda of total war against the rest of the world is not an unthinkable reaction.

    One may wonder at this stage whether Pre-TSD is just another name for paranoia. I would argue that the difference between the two is rather obvious. In the case of paranoia he who is subject to the disease makes us feel sorry for him. In the case of confrontation with a Pre-TSD case, we happen to feel sorry for ourselves.

    (Pre-Traumatic Stress Disorder-A Glimpse Into Israeli Collective Psychosis by Gilad Atzmon, http://www.gilad.co.uk/)

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  118. Kiza,

    I am not of Turkish extraction and in no way affiliated with the Jewish or the Islamic side. I understand that the West does not obey laws that are not convenient to them. In fact, this is true of all countries that have this power. The Israelis did not care much for this nicety of laws. The U.S. does not. Come to think of it, the Russians don’t care much for it either. This is the way the world works. Everyone looks out for its own interest. Just looking at the events objectively, I think if the U.S. really wanted the Russians out, they would not be able to stay.

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  119. Good point on Russian and Iran gas imports as Turkey is 99 percent dependent on gas imports.

    Turkey also only has a 14-day natural gas storage supply so a gas shutoff would hit immediately, especially in winter:

    http://www.todayszaman.com/business_turkey-sees-major-threat-from-possible-russian-gas-cut_405512.html

    Turkey also uses Russian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for 40 pct of its vehicles which would be a no-go.

    http://af.reuters.com/article/nigeriaNews/idAFL8N13R14420151202

    Ukraine gas storage would not be enough to save Turkey through the trans balkan pipeline as their reserves are down to 9.2 BCM and most storage is not in the pipeline corridor and would otherwise be needed in Ukraine

    http://naftogaz-europe.com/article/en/englstorage

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  120. Why do you think that the Turkish fleet will not be on the bottom of the Black Sea within an hour from combined S-300 missiles from the Russian fleet, land based S-400 from Crimea and cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea? Remember, Russian uses satellite missile guidance for mobile targets. If you recall the Georgian state-of-the-art French build missile corvette is somewhere at the bottom of the Black Sea after trying to engage the Russian missile cruiser.

    Russia also has a missile cruiser with S-300 and other surface to air missiles offshore from Syria. Generally the cruiser is accompanied by at least one submarine with cruise missiles to take out attacking ships.

    In Syria the Su-35s, SU-31s and SU-30s have multiple air-to-air missiles that can track and destroy multiple air targets before being shot down. Likewise the SU24s and SU25s have been equipped with air-to-air missiles.

    Syria has some upgraded Mig-29s with modern air-to-air missiles
    as well as the tor-m1 gauntlet missile systems which should reduce the number of Turkish fighters.

    As you are aware the Serbian decoy systems defeated the combined NATO forces using fake artillery, tanks, MIG-29s, and even kitchen microwave “radar” arrays to adsorb THOUSANDS of NATO missiles. I was really impressed with the plywood Mig-29s! I would expect the Russians would have that capability too.

    I have heard that the Russian EW systems would really mess up incoming fighter jets. Given the rapid ramp-up of EW warfare systems in the Olympic peninsula of Washington I would think there is some truth in this capability.

    https://sierraclub.org/washington/north-olympic/navy-warfare-training-olympic-peninsula

    The Turkish massed ground armor attacks you mention would be met with an array of anti-tank weapons like those used in Donbass against the hundreds of Ukraine armored vehicles. In addition the Syrian and their allied forces are battle tested and know the terrain while the Turkish are not bloodied.

    If you follow the Saudi led war in Yemen to install their dictator you will note that a lot of US main battle tanks have been taken out using manpads. I am sure you are aware of the “bumblebee” thermobaric man-portable systems in Syria and how they can be used against armor. The modified Yemen surface-to-surface missiles have killed hundreds of Blackwater Mercs and Saudi troops as well as destroying numerous US made helicopters. I would be surprised if the equivalent Syrian missiles are not being modified to hit bases and staging areas in Turkey.

    Furthermore, Turkey gets 80% of its natural gas and 40% of its vehicle fuel from Russia. Turkey only has, at best, a 14 day of natural gas. Given the El Nino effects on Turkey the supply would be exhausted in a much shorter time. Freezing people are a fickle bunch and will panic in a crisis with unknown results.

    Russia also has deployed the “dead hand” nuclear system which would be an end-all for the world as we know it. Sure hope you are well trained in radiological warfare have the proper equipment to survive at a remote location…

    I hope this clarifies why Turkey will not, and will not, be allowed by NATO to engage Russian forces in Syria.

    As a result, the US, Saudi and Qatar trained and equipped terrorists will continue to be cut off and will be driven into Turkey, Jordan and then into Western Europe and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Some may flee to Libya to join their 3,000-5,000 fellow ISIS and many times that number of Al Qaeda. The West will then have to deal with their creations.

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  121. “there is a big discrepancy between the rhetoric and the actions of the Obama administration which suggested that there may be more than meets the eye” – exactly! There is a split within Obama administration. There are neocons, liberal hawks but also people like gen. Dempsey, now retired.

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  122. It may be a personal quirk but I find it difficult to place any reliance on anyone who is prone to outbursts of ridiculous exaggeration or plain nonsense like “Israel …. is a country of psychopaths”.

    So Wiz,

    Is a country who hides 200 nukes from the world a psychopath country?

    Is a country who is apartheid a psychopath country?

    Is a country that will not allow citizens to return to their homes a psychopath country?

    Is a country who recognizes only one religion a psychopath country?

    Is a country that allows white sex slavery a psychopath country?

    Is a country who ferments war for its neighbors a psychopath country?

    And Wiz, is someone who endlessly lies for that country a psychopath?

    Art

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  123. “Ten minutes after any Israeli air action against Russian forces in Syria, and their wouldn’t be a single usable airfield in all of Israel, and ten minutes after that no functioning Israeli anti-aircraft installation. All accomplished with conventional weapons, no nukes.” – You don’t know what you are talking about, do you? Only nonconventional weapons could accomplish this. Russia does not have enough planes in the neighborhood (maybe 60), the long range bombers would be destroyed long before they reach Mediterranean and Russia does not have enough cruise missiles which can be easily shot down and even if not their conventional warhead is not that damaging.

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  124. Ir vai nav? | vara bungas
    says:
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    […] šeit par iespējamiem eskalācijas scenārijiem, kuriem var piekrist vai nepiekrist, bet tie nāk no vietējo apstākļu zinātāja, kas attiecība […]

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  125. I have no need to google. I live right in the path of the refugees. The largest numbers of refugees were coming in late summer and autumn. Russian intervention started at the very end of September. The peak of refugee wave happened after the Russian intervention. As a matter of fact some Western media were trying to blame Russians for the refugee crisis which is the opposite of your claim. The flow stopped because winters here are quite severe not because of the Russians. Get back to me this summer because I expect similar if not greater numbers of refugees and I would like to here your explanation.

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  126. Just found an even better source: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/11/25/some-greeks-turn-to-elder-paisios-prophecies-on-russia-turkey-conflict/

    Here’s an excerpt of Paisios’ prophecy to whet your appetite:

    “May he who fights in the war for Faith and Fatherland cross himself and not fear, for God is his helper! God Himself will decide whether he is to die or to live. One needs to trust God, not oneself. The Russians will take Turkey. The Chinese will cross the Euphrates. Providence tells me that many events will happen: The Russians will take Turkey and Turkey will disappear from the world map because a third of the Turks will become Christians, another third will die in the war and another third will leave for Mesopotamia. The Mid-East will become a theater of a war in which the Russians will take place. Much blood will be spilled. The Chinese, with an army of 200 million, will cross the Euphrates and go all the way to Jerusalem. The sign that this event is approaching will be the destruction of the Mosque of Omar, for its destruction will mark the beginning of work by the Jews to rebuild the Temple of Solomon, which was built on the same spot. There will be a great war between Russians and Europeans, and much blood will be spilled. Greece won’t play a leading role in that war, but they’ll give her Constantinople. Not because the Russians adore the Greeks, but because no better solution will be found. The city will be handed over to the Greek Army even before it has a chance to get there. The Jews, inasmuch as they’ll have great power and the help of the European leadership, will become proud and insolent beyond measure and conduct themselves shamelessly. They’ll try to rule Europe. They’ll play all sorts of tricks, but the resulting persecutions will lead Christians to unite completely.”

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  127. ” Some may flee to Libya to join their 3,000-5,000 fellow ISIS and many times that number of Al Qaeda. The West will then have to deal with their creations.”

    Or did the West create them so that it would get to deal…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/05/world/africa/isis-libya-us-special-ops.html?_r=0

    Obama Is Pressed to Open Military Front Against ISIS in Libya
    By ERIC SCHMITT, FEB. 4, 2016

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  128. Never in my comments did I blame the Russians for the refugee situation. The West started this war and should bear full responsibility for the consequences. I think the U.S. brought the Russians in to end the war there. If I am correct, there will be some sort of negotiated settlement within six month. That is the outcome that will stop the refugee flow.

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  129. Ballistic missiles to crater airbase runways while simultaneously scattering anti-personnel cluster munitions/mines to slow down runway repairs. (Forget about ” Iron Dome. It’s a joke against any real missile threat.) This grounds their air force, but causes minimal human casualties. Then all the anti-aircraft radars visible by satellite or detectable electronically get taken out, again by ballistic missiles w/HE, cluster munitions, or electronic countermeasure weapons. Again minimal human casualties. That would leave Israel utterly defenseless to the modern Russian air and missile force. The Russians would then stand down, having delivered their message: there will be no further “unpleasantness” so long as they accept the “inadvisabilty” of Israel taking them on.

    The Israelis are aware of this reality, and are consequently — rationally — deterred. (The Israelis are quite formidable against rock-throwing children, unarmed Palestinians at checkpoints, and the helpless civilian residents of the Gaza concentration camp.) Against an experienced, modern, comprehensively capable Russian military,… not so much.

    As I said, there will be no Israel vs Russia military engagement.

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  130. I think you have watched too many Hollywood and sci-fi movies. Most of the things you mention do no exists. They do not make sense. Like the electronic countermeasure weapons. Any idea what they might be?

    Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are not very effective as the experience of Iraq with its Scuds showed. Poor man’s weapon when you do not have air force. Ballistic missiles are good for delivering nuclear warheads because the warheads are light but using them to deliver 500kg or 1000kg conventional warhead is a total waste of money.

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  131. Oh well. Best give Nasrallah his own Iron Dome system. Then he could more effectively avoid Israel assassination attempts.

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  132. Agreed. The US, UK, France and Italy destroyed Libya using Islamic extremists in order to loot the oil and water resources (France alone is acquiring water rights of whole countries)

    The Western backed terrorists supported in Libya were mostly Al Qaeda of the Maghreb. One of the main leaders was al Libi who conviently died two days before his trial!

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/05/world/africa/libya-al-qaeda-leader-captured/

    Hillery and her cabal used the captured weapons to arm and equip Al Qaeda in Syria. A large portion went to Islamic fighters in Mali who were fighting the local tribemen.
    http://original.antiwar.com/jesse_franzblau/2014/06/09/libya- a-cautionary-tale/

    http://fpif.org/ripped-from-hillarys-emails-french-plot-to-overthrow-gaddafi-and-help-itself-to-libyas-oil/

    The rest of Libya’s weapons went to arm Boko Haram.

    Sadly, Libya was the richest country in Africa with the best Women’s rights record. The West in destroying everything it gets involved in has turned Libya into a failed state. It could have been a model for empowering women in Africa which would have reduced the birth rate and counteract the upcoming demographic time bomb:

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/world-population-quarter-of-earth-will-be-african-in-2050.html

    See also the latest Scientific American article on Africa at your local library.

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  133. You have raised the best and by far the most interesting question: Why have Israel gave Putin the green light to move into Syria? It seems Netanyahu outsmarted Mr. Putin, and the later, unfortunately, proved to be so gullible that he jumped into a trap head on!

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