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The Murder of Motorola – Questions Which Must be Answered

Small caveat first:

I will be honest here, I am extremely uncomfortable with this topic and I greatly hesitated before addressing it here. As I have said it many many times before, there is a US-manipulated crowd of what I call “hurray patriots” which will use anything and everything to blame it all on Putin (just like their US controllers do, of course). So when Putin (or Russia) does something wrong or inept, there is a great real of risk of “adding water to their mill”. However, there is another trap I also refuse to fall into: to look away or not ask the tough questions, even about Putin, just because the Putin-bashers will inevitably use it or indulge in an infantile kind of “we told you so long ago” glee. The truth is we, the real patriots and friends of Russia, cannot let the Putin-bashers completely own the discussion. In fact, I think that the best thing we can do is simply ignore them, just pretend like they are not here, even while we remain acutely aware that an entire segment of the so-called ‘patriotic’ or ‘pro-Russia’ blogosphere is, in reality, used by the enemies of Russia.

Having said that, let’s now turn to

The murder of Motorola:

Motorola was killed yesterday, so the investigation is only beginning, but we already know that he was killed by a remotely controlled bomb place in the elevator shaft of his house. DNR officials have immediately blamed the murder on a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance unit. The Ukies, of course, were more than happy to confirm and take credit for this.

And this is were problems begin.

For one thing, Motorola is only the latest in a now obscenely long list of top Novorussian leaders (Pavel Dremov, Alexei Mozgovoi, Evgeny Ishchenko, etc.) who were murdered in very strange circumstances.

Second, the Ukie security services are, to put it very mildly, not exactly known for their amazing capabilities. In the Ukraine they are more known for their corruption, the way the viciously torture their prisoners and for snatching off the street clueless bystanders only to present them as, what else, secret FSB agents. Frankly, I find the notion that the Ukies kill all these top Novorussian leaders absolutely ridiculous.

Third, you tell me: how do you enter a heavily protected building, get into the elevator shaft, then leave, then monitor the arrival of Motorola before setting off a bomb and then get away? This very much reminds me of the murder by the Israelis of Imad Mughniyeh who was killed in Damascus by an Israeli bomb place in the headrest of his car: how did the Israelis get access to his car (in a very heavily protected government area of Damascus) without the numerous Syrian security services noticing? Impossible, of course. But only the widow of Mughniyeh, now living in Iran, had the courage to state the obvious: the Israelis had top level accomplices in Syrian security services.

Means, motive and opportunity

Let’s use “means, motive and opportunity” format and ask – who had the means.

The Ukies: Forgive me, but I don’t believe that the Ukronazis had the means.

The Russikies: Forgive me again, but I find it undeniable that the Kremlin did have the means

The CIA-SAD/SOCOM/USAISA/MI6/SAS/SBS/Mossad/IDF/etc.etc.etc.: doubt it very much. They would need to have not only a specially trained commando team, which they all have, but one which would be inconspicuous in the DNR, and that I find very very hard to believe.

Private contractors: maybe. I could see some agency or country sub-contracting the murder of a Novorussian leader to some private mercenary outfit as the latter would have native Russians speakers with the correct skillset.

However, I submit that this is the wrong way to looking at this issue. The real question is not who had the means to execute such an operation, but why would anybody at all have had the opportunity to do so?!

It does not require to be a genius figure out that Motorola was a prime target. And yet, neither the Novorussians not the Russians could protect him?! This is prima facie ridiculous. Okay, maybe the Novorussians security services are a mess (judging by the number of Novorussian leaders kill, I get the feeling that this are!), but what about the Russians?! They could organized an immense Olympic event in the face of a direct and overt Saudi treat to have it marred by terrorist attacks and not have a single incident, even minor, happen, but they cannot protect the top 10-20 Novorussian leaders?!

As far as I know, not a single Novorussian security service leader was fired or demoted following all the murders of the Novorussians leaders. Why not?

This is how I see it: either the Russians let the Novorussians protect themselves and that was a huge mistake on the part of the Russians, or the Russians are in charge and they are themselves either incompetent (or worse).

Here we have to at least look at

The “Putin did it” theory

Yes, he sure had the means. And opportunity. The Russians are covertly running Novorussia and whatever manner they see fit, and if they wanted to they could kill anybody there. But motive?!?!?!

Motorola was not at all the bone-headed stubborn pain the the butt that other Novorussians leaders have been. I would even say that he, along with “Givi”, were just about the most willing to work with Russia. We also know from the example of Strelkov that the Russians can, if they want, remove anybody they get frustrated with. Why murder Motorola? This makes no sense.

ORDER IT NOW

The problem with the “Putin did it” theory is that it is based on a circular argument which goes like this: “since Putin wants to sell-out Novorussia, he murders Novorussian patriots, and he murders Novorussian patriots because he wants to sell-out Novorussia”. What that argument misses is that Putin could have sold out all of Novorussia, including all the Novorussian patriots, years ago just by a short move of his pen. But to the great dismay of the Putin-hating hurray-patriots, Putin remained steadfast in his support for Novorussia (without Russian support, Novorussia would fold in a week or so). Ditto for Syria which the very same Putin-hating hurray-patriots accuse Putin of “selling out” for many years already, even when the Russians single handedly protect Syria like they are doing today.

Yes, the Russians had the means and opportunity to murder Mozgovoi and the others, just as the Russians did have the means to shoot down MH-17, and just as the Russians do have the means today to bomb Syrian hospitals. So what? The Russians also have the means to send special forces to attack any orphanage on the planet and they can nuke Machu Picchu, but that hardly means that they would have any motive to do so? What we need to ask is

Whatever happened to cui bono?

Cui bono indeed. Unless somebody presents me a fact-based argument, I submit that Putin had no reasons at all the kill anybody in Novorussia so he is off my list of suspects.

Kiev. Meh… Yeah, I guess, they kinda had a motive. If they are dumb enough to send (a rather poorly trained) unit to blow up bombs in Crimea, they are probably dumb enough to try to kill somebody in Donesk. Except for I don’t believe that they had the means or opportunity to do it. So Kiev is also off my list of suspects.

CIA-SAD/SOCOM/USAISA/MI6/SAS/SBS/Mossad/IDF/etc.etc.etc? Means? I doubt it. Opportunity? I doubt it again. Motive? Not really. Folks in the West are smart enough to realize that by killing Novorussian leaders they really achieve very little. Even if ALL the current Novorussian leaders are killed, the people of Novorussia will never accept any Ukronazi rule over them, as for the military defense plans, they are made in Moscow anyway. Killing Novorussian leaders just is a lot of effort for not much to gain.

Which, unless I missed something leaves one theory:

Novorussian infighting aka “they did it themselves”

Usually, when somebody in the LNR is murdered, Plotnitsky is suspected. Not only is he an extremely unsympathetic personality, he has that “look” of being a ruthless thug. Then there is the fact that several of the murdered leaders were openly highly critical of him. Problem: Motorola was in the DNR, not the LNR and the LNR bad boys had no reason to risk messing with their (much more powerful) DNR leaders. As for the leader of the DNR, Zakharchenko, there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that he had any problems with Motorola.

How about the Novorussian mobsters (and their colleagues from Russia)?

Well, maybe. By definition maybe. But that does not explain how they got past the security and into the elevator shaft of a highly protected building.

Conclusion?

To be honest, I ain’t got anything remotely resembling a real conclusion. All I have is a sense of frustration and one Ukrainian slogan like a mantra in my mind. So let’s begin with my frustration.

I am mad at the Russian security services.

Sorry, but for all the talk about the sovereign Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Novorusssia is in inside the Russian security services area of responsibility. At the very least, the Russian security services have done a terrible job setting down the law, their law, in Novorussia. This is a case of professional incompetence, I am sorry to say. Putin ought to ask the heads of his security services whether they can maintain law and order in Novorussia or not and immediately fire anybody who would reply in the negative. He should then appoint one person in charge of Novorussian security and subordinate the FSB/SVR/GRU assets in Novorussia to that person. Finally, the Kremlin out to explain the the local security services that they either step aside and shut up or be removed, physically if needed.

Too extreme?

I don’t think so. The Russians own Novorussia and they have to fix it now. The people involved (as actors or accomplices) to these murders ought to be found and shot. Yes, *shot*. By a military tribunal and under the laws of a time of war. And while the local elites might be outraged by such a Russian move, the local people will only be grateful

Путін прийде порядок наведе!

The above slogan says (in Ukrainian) “Putin will come and restore order”. This is the (highly illegal!) motto of those in the Ukraine who still hope that the Russians will come and restore order. As I wrote many times, the Russians ain’t coming and the Ukrainians need to restore order themselves. But for Novorussia, I see no other solution.

There are no 10’000 ways of putting it: Novorussia is a friggin mess. Not only are top leaders murdered, but all the others are constantly appointed, then removed like some kind of crazy merry go around. Zakharchenko in the DNR has done a much better job than the folks in the LNR, but that latest murder of Motorola is showing that instead of the LNR becoming more like the DNR, it is the DNR which is becoming more like the LNR.

Ideally, the Russians should send some smart and ruthless patriot, like General Shamanov, to go to Lugansk and Donesk and read the locals the riot act (Russians generals are very good at that kind of stuff) and if they offer any resistance, just toss them out of their office (Russian generals are also good at that kind of stuff).

Okay – now the real conclusion

We are about to enter fantastically dangerous times. The Kremlin simply cannot afford the kind of bullshit (forgive my French!) that has been taking place in Novorussia. Enough is enough. If the locals cannot get the job done, they the locals need to step aside. There is an absolutely real risk of Hillary and her Neocons finally taking full power in the White House, Russia and the USA might have a shooting war over Syria, the Ukronazis might attack the Donbass any day now, the Russian 5th column is as powerful as ever in the Russian government, and Russia needs to prepare for a possible WWIII. Russia simply does not have the luxury of putting up with a chaotic and lawless Novorussia run by either traitors or incompetent people. A major crackdown on the Novorussia elites is much overdue. Come on, Putin – do it! And find the bastards who murdered Motorola.

(Reprinted from The Vineyard of the Saker by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Any military leaders with independent followers are loose cannon, biddable or not. They all have to go. The solution in insurgent occupied Ukraine will be political. The attempt to create an army failed, not just from lack of money. Local volunteer response was very weak. Meanwhile, Kiev starts from the same cultural and social roots as Russia. Kiev can train an army to match anything in insurgent occupied Ukraine. Russia can of course overwhelm it with numbers thereby burying Russia even deeper under its problems. As the insurgent strategy is to shelter in heavily populated areas, the death toll for a Russian backed resistance will be huge. so, anyone seriously opposed to a near total surrender has to go. The manageable ones will be offered sanctuary in Russia. Motorola was a psychotic killer with enough of a following to create an annoyance. Not someone to have inside your country.

    Government officials in Donetsk will probably be allowed to write to central ministries in Russian. Denying that was the original pretext for the rebellion. Kiev conceded as fast as the Nazi Junta was removed from office. And there might be a referendum on some measure of devolution, once the displaced have returned. (About 5 times more of them are in Ukraine rather than Russia – might be an indication of sentiment about the insurgency).

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    • Replies: @5371
    You have changed your handle (or did management change it to punish you for sockpuppeting?) but your comments remain reliably devoid of even a word of truth or convincing invention.
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  2. naryshin replaced fradkov on september 22. could that be important?

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    More likely to be about Foreign Intelligence in general. The Russian Ambassador to the US is getting very active. They probably need to change their game in the US whoever wins the US race. Fradkov was part of the 2004 putsch against Kasyanov. He was then demoted. Putin probably thought he was very reliable but Putin is making space for new blood.
  3. @Philip Owen
    Any military leaders with independent followers are loose cannon, biddable or not. They all have to go. The solution in insurgent occupied Ukraine will be political. The attempt to create an army failed, not just from lack of money. Local volunteer response was very weak. Meanwhile, Kiev starts from the same cultural and social roots as Russia. Kiev can train an army to match anything in insurgent occupied Ukraine. Russia can of course overwhelm it with numbers thereby burying Russia even deeper under its problems. As the insurgent strategy is to shelter in heavily populated areas, the death toll for a Russian backed resistance will be huge. so, anyone seriously opposed to a near total surrender has to go. The manageable ones will be offered sanctuary in Russia. Motorola was a psychotic killer with enough of a following to create an annoyance. Not someone to have inside your country.

    Government officials in Donetsk will probably be allowed to write to central ministries in Russian. Denying that was the original pretext for the rebellion. Kiev conceded as fast as the Nazi Junta was removed from office. And there might be a referendum on some measure of devolution, once the displaced have returned. (About 5 times more of them are in Ukraine rather than Russia - might be an indication of sentiment about the insurgency).

    You have changed your handle (or did management change it to punish you for sockpuppeting?) but your comments remain reliably devoid of even a word of truth or convincing invention.

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    Maangement changed it. I had different handles on different devices so that I could track my usage.
    , @Philip Owen
    Displaced person counts are 360 thousand now in Russia. 1.6 million staying in Ukraine so 4.4 - I said "about". There were more NovoRossiyans in Russia, about 3/4 million - this you registered. Young men of military age fleeing the Press gang. They were required to work. Most decided to go back to Ukraine or to Crimea. This you want to ignore as I should you until you have something to say.
  4. I don’t know, Saker, you base a lot of your post on the idea that Pavlov’s apartment building was “heavily protected”, but people who have been there say that it was not protected at all. No concierge, not even a code on the street door.

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    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Thirdeye
    I was also taken aback by the lack of precautions that came to light after the attempt on Givi's life while he was in transit.
  5. If the man, or men, responsible for killing the thug “Motorola” is found, I doubt you will like the answer. Putin wants chaos in the Donbas, and he’s getting it with the idiots that are “in charge” there. Zakarchenko is now running scared. He’s blaming the Ukrainians, the only people who don’t benefit from the killing of Zakarachenko’s thugish buddy.

    “I am mad at the Russian security services.”

    I can understand this. But it’s those same “security services” that endanger your life Saker. That’s why you don’t live in Russia.

    “If they are dumb enough to send (a rather poorly trained) unit to blow up bombs in Crimea….”

    This is utterly hilarious. You don’t trust Russia with your life, but you buy off on Putin’s propaganda. It ‘s just like one of your favorite expressions “Ukronazis” when the Ukrainians are anything but Nazi, and the Russian regime is acting like the Nazi regime of 1939. You are nothing if not ill informed. But, you are willfully obtuse and won’t see the evidence in front of your face. Your buddy Putin is a Mafioso and in it for himself. His concern encompasses only himself, and Russia, and her people, can go to hell as far as he is concerned.

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    • Replies: @5371
    It's almost impossible to be more clueless, foolish and deranged than Philip Owen, but you may have achieved it.
  6. anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    The Kiev Ukrainians are dismissed as being not up to the job. But they can learn, can’t they? For something like this it wouldn’t take a lot of people but just a few suitable ones. A small number could be recruited and trained by another country. Things could be organized by outsiders and run by them. With the right leadership and planning they could be effective. The ones running it would be foreigners since some of the problems of inefficiency in the country seem to stem from the difficulty of establishing a worthwhile leadership class that’s indigenous. The CIA has been very involved there for years now doing who knows what. It’s established that the US, through it’s CIA, has historically been very fond of assassination as a tool. They’ve been training all sorts of people around the world in assassination, sabotage and terrorism, employing them on all continents. Why not here where they’re engaged in murky doings?

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  7. @Quartermaster
    If the man, or men, responsible for killing the thug "Motorola" is found, I doubt you will like the answer. Putin wants chaos in the Donbas, and he's getting it with the idiots that are "in charge" there. Zakarchenko is now running scared. He's blaming the Ukrainians, the only people who don't benefit from the killing of Zakarachenko's thugish buddy.

    "I am mad at the Russian security services."

    I can understand this. But it's those same "security services" that endanger your life Saker. That's why you don't live in Russia.

    "If they are dumb enough to send (a rather poorly trained) unit to blow up bombs in Crimea...."

    This is utterly hilarious. You don't trust Russia with your life, but you buy off on Putin's propaganda. It 's just like one of your favorite expressions "Ukronazis" when the Ukrainians are anything but Nazi, and the Russian regime is acting like the Nazi regime of 1939. You are nothing if not ill informed. But, you are willfully obtuse and won't see the evidence in front of your face. Your buddy Putin is a Mafioso and in it for himself. His concern encompasses only himself, and Russia, and her people, can go to hell as far as he is concerned.

    It’s almost impossible to be more clueless, foolish and deranged than Philip Owen, but you may have achieved it.

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    • Replies: @Philip Owen
    You are so dumb that you hide in shame.
    , @Quartermaster
    It would be better if you took the time to make yourself informed prior to calling someone that is far better informed than yourself, uninformed. Saker, alas, is not among the better informed. Obviously, you are just as ill informed.

    Dumb and stupid is no way to go through life, but people such as yourself will insist on doing so, no matter the facts staring them in the face.
  8. Like Israeli Mossad Putin’s former employer, Russian KGB, is also famous for assassinating world leader.

    For example, Russia’s Air Force hero, Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev, and first president of Republic of Chechnya was assassinated by a remote bomb by KGB agents in 1996.

    https://rehmat1.com/2009/02/02/chechnya-without-chechens/

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {Like Israeli Mossad Putin’s former employer, Russian KGB, is also famous for assassinating world leader.}

    Enlighten us you IslamoFascist anti-Christian, anti-West parasite squatting in Christian Canada: which world leader has KGB assassinated?
    Other than possibly Pakistani IslamoFascist terrorist Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq , whose C-130 mysteriously crashed. I am hoping it was the KGB. But of course Zia-ul-Haq was another filthy Islamist terrorist. A 'world leader' of one of the tribes in Islamistan Pakistan. A CIA/Mossad stooge.


    {For example, Russia’s Air Force hero, Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev, and first president of Republic of Chechnya was assassinated by a remote bomb by KGB agents in 1996.}

    For example: Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev was neither a 'world leader' nor a 'hero'.

    If it weren't for the Soviet Union (read Russia), Dudayev would be just another Chechen warlord, engaged in crime.
    And he was not assassinated: he was executed for being a traitor and a terrorist.

    Like a whole lot of Chechen IslamoFascist terrorist gang-leaders.
    Like Shamil Basayev , who took credit for the massacre of children at Beslan.

    Like a whole bunch of other Chechen terrorist leaders who were liquidated in Turkey: the scum thought they were safe in IslamoFascist UygurTürkistan . Wrongo: KGB's long hand can reach and grab youse IslamoFascist terrorist murderers wherever youse are hiding.

  9. Thank you for bringing this extremely interesting information to our attention, Saker!

    I wish I had the time to keep up with current events. I do have a couple Russian news aggregation websites that I look at every few days: Fort-russ.com, and therussophile.org. I’d like to replace Fort-russ.com with a better service; if anyone knows of a good one lemme know.

    This assassination sounds like an inside job…It is exceedingly difficult to penetrate a heavily guarded building. Alarm systems can be defeated, locks can be picked, but highly organized armed security…forget about it! I assume it’s SOP in the DNR to give all such security personnel polygraphs every few months, to keep it real. So, if it is an inside job, it’s got to be someone fairly high up doing it. It’s possible that the DARPA nerds have created some kind of ‘confusion ray’ that induces a temporary brain seizure in the target…anything short of that would be insufficient to facilitate penetration.

    I hope Putin sends his best guys over there to get to the bottom of this…the Russians can’t afford anymore slip-up’s in the Donbass; not with the US/NATO constantly testing the wire.

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  10. @Rehmat
    Like Israeli Mossad Putin's former employer, Russian KGB, is also famous for assassinating world leader.

    For example, Russia’s Air Force hero, Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev, and first president of Republic of Chechnya was assassinated by a remote bomb by KGB agents in 1996.

    https://rehmat1.com/2009/02/02/chechnya-without-chechens/

    {Like Israeli Mossad Putin’s former employer, Russian KGB, is also famous for assassinating world leader.}

    Enlighten us you IslamoFascist anti-Christian, anti-West parasite squatting in Christian Canada: which world leader has KGB assassinated?
    Other than possibly Pakistani IslamoFascist terrorist Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq , whose C-130 mysteriously crashed. I am hoping it was the KGB. But of course Zia-ul-Haq was another filthy Islamist terrorist. A ‘world leader’ of one of the tribes in Islamistan Pakistan. A CIA/Mossad stooge.


    {For example, Russia’s Air Force hero, Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev, and first president of Republic of Chechnya was assassinated by a remote bomb by KGB agents in 1996.}

    For example: Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev was neither a ‘world leader’ nor a ‘hero’.

    If it weren’t for the Soviet Union (read Russia), Dudayev would be just another Chechen warlord, engaged in crime.
    And he was not assassinated: he was executed for being a traitor and a terrorist.

    Like a whole lot of Chechen IslamoFascist terrorist gang-leaders.
    Like Shamil Basayev , who took credit for the massacre of children at Beslan.

    Like a whole bunch of other Chechen terrorist leaders who were liquidated in Turkey: the scum thought they were safe in IslamoFascist UygurTürkistan . Wrongo: KGB’s long hand can reach and grab youse IslamoFascist terrorist murderers wherever youse are hiding.

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    • Replies: @Rehmat
    Hello JudeFascist - can you pick-up phone and call 'smelly' Tzipi Livni, a former Mossad 'sex pot' and ask her how many ex-KGB assassins are working for Mossad these days - and whom they murdered around the world?

    Military dictator Gen. Zia-ul Haq along with 23 top military official were blown to sky thanks to CIA-Mossad-RAW bastards. Like 9/11 Jews blamed Muslims - America blamed KGB for killing the Pakistani dictator who was an ally of America and Israeli brothers in al-Saud royal family.

    Going back to Mossad 'sexpot' who also performed her sex act on two of Mahmoud Abbas peace negotiators - during a Q & A period Husam El-Qoulaq, head of the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), a Muslim, Jewish and Christian student group at Harvard, asked the event’s keynote speaker, Israeli Knesset member and former foreign and justice minister Tzipi Livni: “Why you’re smelly?” In fact, he was trying to be polite to Tzipi Livni by not calling her a war criminal or a hooker.

    The event was cosponsored by the Jewish Law Students Association and Harvard Hillel, Israeli Campus advocacy groups. The topic of Livni’s speech was, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict & the US.

    The Dean of Harvard Law School, Dr. Martha Minow (Jewish) in a statement condemned the label. She called ‘smelly’ being offensive and embarrassment to the institution.

    Sorry to pull your filthy pants Moshe ........

    https://rehmat1.com/2016/04/24/harvard-calling-jews-smelly-is-antisemitism/
  11. @5371
    You have changed your handle (or did management change it to punish you for sockpuppeting?) but your comments remain reliably devoid of even a word of truth or convincing invention.

    Maangement changed it. I had different handles on different devices so that I could track my usage.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Just as I thought, you are dishonest as well as a gibbering idiot. Putsch against Kasyanov? When your employer declines to employ you again after your contract runs out, is that a putsch?
    , @Hunsdon
    And Hillary used one email because it would be simpler.
  12. @5371
    It's almost impossible to be more clueless, foolish and deranged than Philip Owen, but you may have achieved it.

    You are so dumb that you hide in shame.

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  13. @5371
    You have changed your handle (or did management change it to punish you for sockpuppeting?) but your comments remain reliably devoid of even a word of truth or convincing invention.

    Displaced person counts are 360 thousand now in Russia. 1.6 million staying in Ukraine so 4.4 – I said “about”. There were more NovoRossiyans in Russia, about 3/4 million – this you registered. Young men of military age fleeing the Press gang. They were required to work. Most decided to go back to Ukraine or to Crimea. This you want to ignore as I should you until you have something to say.

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  14. @dykalg
    naryshin replaced fradkov on september 22. could that be important?

    More likely to be about Foreign Intelligence in general. The Russian Ambassador to the US is getting very active. They probably need to change their game in the US whoever wins the US race. Fradkov was part of the 2004 putsch against Kasyanov. He was then demoted. Putin probably thought he was very reliable but Putin is making space for new blood.

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  15. The attempt to create an army failed, not just from lack of money. Local volunteer response was very weak.

    This is simply incorrect. The vast majority (80%+) of the 40,000 strong NAF are locals, and unlike the Ukrainian Army, they are an all volunteer force. So that’s 0.5% of the (prewar) population of the entirety of Lugansk and Donetsk oblast serving in the NAF at any one time. This is also bearing in mind that the demographic crisis hit those areas harder than almost anywhere else in Ukraine so they don’t exactly have many men in the 18-30 year old range.

    That’s as high a share of their population as the still mostly conscription based Ukrainian Army.

    And there might be a referendum on some measure of devolution, once the displaced have returned.

    LOL. You really don’t have a clue about the Maidan mindset and Ukrainian political realities do you.

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    • Replies: @AP

    The vast majority (80%+) of the 40,000 strong NAF are locals, and unlike the Ukrainian Army, they are an all volunteer force.
     
    So if 85% of the NAF fighters are locals that means 34,000 locals have volunteered to fight for Donbas.

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can't provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed "freedom fighters" is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don't know).


    That’s as high a share of their population as the still mostly conscription based Ukrainian Army
     
    Yes, but these guys are supposedly defending their very homes against Nazi invaders, not getting sent to some other province where they aren't even liked by the locals.

    Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts had a combined prewar population of a little around 6.7 million people, and have only gotten about 34,000 local volunteers willing to fight for their independent state against invading "Nazis." We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995). So for a supposed popular mass movement fighting for liberation against evil Nazi invaders, the Donbas figure of 34,000 local volunteer soldiers of of about 6.7 million people in Donbas isn't very impressive.

    I'm not suggesting there is any significant pro-Kiev sentiment in Donbas - there isn't. Polls before the war but after Maidan suggested that a large majority there disliked Kiev and opposed Maidan, but also (by a much smaller margin) didn't want an armed rebellion either.

  16. @Anatoly Karlin

    The attempt to create an army failed, not just from lack of money. Local volunteer response was very weak.
     
    This is simply incorrect. The vast majority (80%+) of the 40,000 strong NAF are locals, and unlike the Ukrainian Army, they are an all volunteer force. So that's 0.5% of the (prewar) population of the entirety of Lugansk and Donetsk oblast serving in the NAF at any one time. This is also bearing in mind that the demographic crisis hit those areas harder than almost anywhere else in Ukraine so they don't exactly have many men in the 18-30 year old range.

    That's as high a share of their population as the still mostly conscription based Ukrainian Army.

    And there might be a referendum on some measure of devolution, once the displaced have returned.
     
    LOL. You really don't have a clue about the Maidan mindset and Ukrainian political realities do you.

    The vast majority (80%+) of the 40,000 strong NAF are locals, and unlike the Ukrainian Army, they are an all volunteer force.

    So if 85% of the NAF fighters are locals that means 34,000 locals have volunteered to fight for Donbas.

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can’t provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed “freedom fighters” is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don’t know).

    That’s as high a share of their population as the still mostly conscription based Ukrainian Army

    Yes, but these guys are supposedly defending their very homes against Nazi invaders, not getting sent to some other province where they aren’t even liked by the locals.

    Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts had a combined prewar population of a little around 6.7 million people, and have only gotten about 34,000 local volunteers willing to fight for their independent state against invading “Nazis.” We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995). So for a supposed popular mass movement fighting for liberation against evil Nazi invaders, the Donbas figure of 34,000 local volunteer soldiers of of about 6.7 million people in Donbas isn’t very impressive.

    I’m not suggesting there is any significant pro-Kiev sentiment in Donbas – there isn’t. Polls before the war but after Maidan suggested that a large majority there disliked Kiev and opposed Maidan, but also (by a much smaller margin) didn’t want an armed rebellion either.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can’t provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed “freedom fighters” is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don’t know).
     
    That is not a bad point, but one problem is that there is almost unanimous agreement amongst accounts from the conflict that the NAF has far higher morale than the UAF. Ultimately, while $400/month is not at all a bad salary for the DNR/LNR today (if not several years ago when it was below the average wage in Donbass), I don't think it's the sort of money for which most people will run the very real risk of injury and death unless it's for a cause they believed in.

    We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).
     
    Well, sure, in a time and place where the population pyramid is an actual pyramid instead of the Library of Minsk, and warfare is much less capital intensive, it's both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people.

    In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).
     
    Arguably the Croatian example is more relevant wrt to Ukraine since (1) Croatia had conscription and (2) Ukrainian nationalists often refer to Operation Storm as the template for what they want to eventually happen in Donbass.

    In this comparison, the Croats were literally ten times as effective at mobilizing as Ukraine. (Note however that I am not saying these two situations are analogous either).
  17. @Philip Owen
    Maangement changed it. I had different handles on different devices so that I could track my usage.

    Just as I thought, you are dishonest as well as a gibbering idiot. Putsch against Kasyanov? When your employer declines to employ you again after your contract runs out, is that a putsch?

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  18. @Avery
    {Like Israeli Mossad Putin’s former employer, Russian KGB, is also famous for assassinating world leader.}

    Enlighten us you IslamoFascist anti-Christian, anti-West parasite squatting in Christian Canada: which world leader has KGB assassinated?
    Other than possibly Pakistani IslamoFascist terrorist Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq , whose C-130 mysteriously crashed. I am hoping it was the KGB. But of course Zia-ul-Haq was another filthy Islamist terrorist. A 'world leader' of one of the tribes in Islamistan Pakistan. A CIA/Mossad stooge.


    {For example, Russia’s Air Force hero, Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev, and first president of Republic of Chechnya was assassinated by a remote bomb by KGB agents in 1996.}

    For example: Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev was neither a 'world leader' nor a 'hero'.

    If it weren't for the Soviet Union (read Russia), Dudayev would be just another Chechen warlord, engaged in crime.
    And he was not assassinated: he was executed for being a traitor and a terrorist.

    Like a whole lot of Chechen IslamoFascist terrorist gang-leaders.
    Like Shamil Basayev , who took credit for the massacre of children at Beslan.

    Like a whole bunch of other Chechen terrorist leaders who were liquidated in Turkey: the scum thought they were safe in IslamoFascist UygurTürkistan . Wrongo: KGB's long hand can reach and grab youse IslamoFascist terrorist murderers wherever youse are hiding.

    Hello JudeFascist – can you pick-up phone and call ‘smelly’ Tzipi Livni, a former Mossad ‘sex pot’ and ask her how many ex-KGB assassins are working for Mossad these days – and whom they murdered around the world?

    Military dictator Gen. Zia-ul Haq along with 23 top military official were blown to sky thanks to CIA-Mossad-RAW bastards. Like 9/11 Jews blamed Muslims – America blamed KGB for killing the Pakistani dictator who was an ally of America and Israeli brothers in al-Saud royal family.

    Going back to Mossad ‘sexpot’ who also performed her sex act on two of Mahmoud Abbas peace negotiators – during a Q & A period Husam El-Qoulaq, head of the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), a Muslim, Jewish and Christian student group at Harvard, asked the event’s keynote speaker, Israeli Knesset member and former foreign and justice minister Tzipi Livni: “Why you’re smelly?” In fact, he was trying to be polite to Tzipi Livni by not calling her a war criminal or a hooker.

    The event was cosponsored by the Jewish Law Students Association and Harvard Hillel, Israeli Campus advocacy groups. The topic of Livni’s speech was, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict & the US.

    The Dean of Harvard Law School, Dr. Martha Minow (Jewish) in a statement condemned the label. She called ‘smelly’ being offensive and embarrassment to the institution.

    Sorry to pull your filthy pants Moshe ……..

    https://rehmat1.com/2016/04/24/harvard-calling-jews-smelly-is-antisemitism/

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {Military dictator Gen. Zia-ul Haq along with 23 top military official were blown to sky thanks to CIA-Mossad-RAW bastards.}

    Too bad, Mohammad: I was sincerely hoping it was the KGB.
    Ah, well. There are lots more IslamoFascist terrorists for KGB to liquidate ('liquidate' is a favourite expression of KGB: so poetic).

    As to the 'smells' you are smelling: look around you Mohammad; it is the smell of pig s____ in the Canadian-bacon farm you are currently employed in, commensurate with your level of non-education and mental ability.

  19. @Rehmat
    Hello JudeFascist - can you pick-up phone and call 'smelly' Tzipi Livni, a former Mossad 'sex pot' and ask her how many ex-KGB assassins are working for Mossad these days - and whom they murdered around the world?

    Military dictator Gen. Zia-ul Haq along with 23 top military official were blown to sky thanks to CIA-Mossad-RAW bastards. Like 9/11 Jews blamed Muslims - America blamed KGB for killing the Pakistani dictator who was an ally of America and Israeli brothers in al-Saud royal family.

    Going back to Mossad 'sexpot' who also performed her sex act on two of Mahmoud Abbas peace negotiators - during a Q & A period Husam El-Qoulaq, head of the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), a Muslim, Jewish and Christian student group at Harvard, asked the event’s keynote speaker, Israeli Knesset member and former foreign and justice minister Tzipi Livni: “Why you’re smelly?” In fact, he was trying to be polite to Tzipi Livni by not calling her a war criminal or a hooker.

    The event was cosponsored by the Jewish Law Students Association and Harvard Hillel, Israeli Campus advocacy groups. The topic of Livni’s speech was, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict & the US.

    The Dean of Harvard Law School, Dr. Martha Minow (Jewish) in a statement condemned the label. She called ‘smelly’ being offensive and embarrassment to the institution.

    Sorry to pull your filthy pants Moshe ........

    https://rehmat1.com/2016/04/24/harvard-calling-jews-smelly-is-antisemitism/

    {Military dictator Gen. Zia-ul Haq along with 23 top military official were blown to sky thanks to CIA-Mossad-RAW bastards.}

    Too bad, Mohammad: I was sincerely hoping it was the KGB.
    Ah, well. There are lots more IslamoFascist terrorists for KGB to liquidate (‘liquidate’ is a favourite expression of KGB: so poetic).

    As to the ‘smells’ you are smelling: look around you Mohammad; it is the smell of pig s____ in the Canadian-bacon farm you are currently employed in, commensurate with your level of non-education and mental ability.

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  20. @5371
    I don't know, Saker, you base a lot of your post on the idea that Pavlov's apartment building was "heavily protected", but people who have been there say that it was not protected at all. No concierge, not even a code on the street door.

    I was also taken aback by the lack of precautions that came to light after the attempt on Givi’s life while he was in transit.

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  21. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Okay, maybe the Novorussians security services are a mess (judging by the number of Novorussian leaders kill_, I get the feeling that this are!), but what about the Russians?! They could organized an immense Olympic event

    Looks like Bing translation.

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  22. @AP

    The vast majority (80%+) of the 40,000 strong NAF are locals, and unlike the Ukrainian Army, they are an all volunteer force.
     
    So if 85% of the NAF fighters are locals that means 34,000 locals have volunteered to fight for Donbas.

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can't provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed "freedom fighters" is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don't know).


    That’s as high a share of their population as the still mostly conscription based Ukrainian Army
     
    Yes, but these guys are supposedly defending their very homes against Nazi invaders, not getting sent to some other province where they aren't even liked by the locals.

    Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts had a combined prewar population of a little around 6.7 million people, and have only gotten about 34,000 local volunteers willing to fight for their independent state against invading "Nazis." We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995). So for a supposed popular mass movement fighting for liberation against evil Nazi invaders, the Donbas figure of 34,000 local volunteer soldiers of of about 6.7 million people in Donbas isn't very impressive.

    I'm not suggesting there is any significant pro-Kiev sentiment in Donbas - there isn't. Polls before the war but after Maidan suggested that a large majority there disliked Kiev and opposed Maidan, but also (by a much smaller margin) didn't want an armed rebellion either.

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can’t provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed “freedom fighters” is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don’t know).

    That is not a bad point, but one problem is that there is almost unanimous agreement amongst accounts from the conflict that the NAF has far higher morale than the UAF. Ultimately, while $400/month is not at all a bad salary for the DNR/LNR today (if not several years ago when it was below the average wage in Donbass), I don’t think it’s the sort of money for which most people will run the very real risk of injury and death unless it’s for a cause they believed in.

    We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).

    Well, sure, in a time and place where the population pyramid is an actual pyramid instead of the Library of Minsk, and warfare is much less capital intensive, it’s both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people.

    In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).

    Arguably the Croatian example is more relevant wrt to Ukraine since (1) Croatia had conscription and (2) Ukrainian nationalists often refer to Operation Storm as the template for what they want to eventually happen in Donbass.

    In this comparison, the Croats were literally ten times as effective at mobilizing as Ukraine. (Note however that I am not saying these two situations are analogous either).

    Read More
    • Replies: @AP

    Ultimately, while $400/month is not at all a bad salary for the DNR/LNR today (if not several years ago when it was below the average wage in Donbass), I don’t think it’s the sort of money for which most people will run the very real risk of injury and death unless it’s for a cause they believed in.
     
    The casualty rate is not such that death is a strong risk. This war isn't Stalingrad or Verdun. At this stage it isn't even Viet Nam. I'm not sure that coal mining out there is much safer.

    " We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995)."

    Well, sure, in a time and place where the population pyramid is an actual pyramid instead of the Library of Minsk, and warfare is much less capital intensive, it’s both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people.
     
    A good point. I am too lazy to hunt down the specific number of males in Donbas between ages 18 and 30, and to compare this number to the number of similar age among Galician Ukrainians or Latvians in 1918-1919. No doubt a much higher % of the Galician population vs. Donbas population were of fighting age. But given that Donbas has over twice as many people (6.7 million) as the ethnic Ukrainian population of Galicia in 1918 (3.2 million) I doubt that the overall number is lower. It's certainly not enough to compensate for about three times more volunteers in Galicia vs. Donbas.

    warfare is much less capital intensive, it’s both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people
     
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that the NAF is able to equip anyone who volunteers and is able-bodied. They aren't turning people away, are they? So the 34,000 local troops are pretty much the people who volunteered.

    (in Galicia in 1918 over 100,00o enlisted but only 75,000 or so were equipped and formed the military).
  23. @Philip Owen
    Maangement changed it. I had different handles on different devices so that I could track my usage.

    And Hillary used one email because it would be simpler.

    Read More
  24. @Anatoly Karlin

    NAF soldiers are paid decently and there are few other ways of making money there. Some guy whose factory closed and who can’t provide for his family as a civilian but who can get paid as a soldier for the DNR is indeed a volunteer, but this is not necessarily out of a sense of local patriotism for the Novorossiya project. The number of committed “freedom fighters” is certainly lower than 34,000 (by how much, I don’t know).
     
    That is not a bad point, but one problem is that there is almost unanimous agreement amongst accounts from the conflict that the NAF has far higher morale than the UAF. Ultimately, while $400/month is not at all a bad salary for the DNR/LNR today (if not several years ago when it was below the average wage in Donbass), I don't think it's the sort of money for which most people will run the very real risk of injury and death unless it's for a cause they believed in.

    We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).
     
    Well, sure, in a time and place where the population pyramid is an actual pyramid instead of the Library of Minsk, and warfare is much less capital intensive, it's both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people.

    In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).
     
    Arguably the Croatian example is more relevant wrt to Ukraine since (1) Croatia had conscription and (2) Ukrainian nationalists often refer to Operation Storm as the template for what they want to eventually happen in Donbass.

    In this comparison, the Croats were literally ten times as effective at mobilizing as Ukraine. (Note however that I am not saying these two situations are analogous either).

    Ultimately, while $400/month is not at all a bad salary for the DNR/LNR today (if not several years ago when it was below the average wage in Donbass), I don’t think it’s the sort of money for which most people will run the very real risk of injury and death unless it’s for a cause they believed in.

    The casualty rate is not such that death is a strong risk. This war isn’t Stalingrad or Verdun. At this stage it isn’t even Viet Nam. I’m not sure that coal mining out there is much safer.

    ” We can compare this to other liberation movements. After World War I, the 3.2 million ethnic Ukrainians of Galicia produced over 100,000 volunteers to fight for their newly declared country against invading Poles. Around the same period of time, 1.3 million Latvians produced a military with around 70,000 soldiers to fight for their independence. In 1991, 3.7 million Croats produced 70,00o troops (rising to 250,000 by 1995).”

    Well, sure, in a time and place where the population pyramid is an actual pyramid instead of the Library of Minsk, and warfare is much less capital intensive, it’s both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people.

    A good point. I am too lazy to hunt down the specific number of males in Donbas between ages 18 and 30, and to compare this number to the number of similar age among Galician Ukrainians or Latvians in 1918-1919. No doubt a much higher % of the Galician population vs. Donbas population were of fighting age. But given that Donbas has over twice as many people (6.7 million) as the ethnic Ukrainian population of Galicia in 1918 (3.2 million) I doubt that the overall number is lower. It’s certainly not enough to compensate for about three times more volunteers in Galicia vs. Donbas.

    warfare is much less capital intensive, it’s both easier and makes more sense to enlist more people

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but my impression is that the NAF is able to equip anyone who volunteers and is able-bodied. They aren’t turning people away, are they? So the 34,000 local troops are pretty much the people who volunteered.

    (in Galicia in 1918 over 100,00o enlisted but only 75,000 or so were equipped and formed the military).

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  25. @5371
    It's almost impossible to be more clueless, foolish and deranged than Philip Owen, but you may have achieved it.

    It would be better if you took the time to make yourself informed prior to calling someone that is far better informed than yourself, uninformed. Saker, alas, is not among the better informed. Obviously, you are just as ill informed.

    Dumb and stupid is no way to go through life, but people such as yourself will insist on doing so, no matter the facts staring them in the face.

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    • Replies: @5371
    Go piddle on yourself while raving about Gog and Magog, mental defective.
  26. @Quartermaster
    It would be better if you took the time to make yourself informed prior to calling someone that is far better informed than yourself, uninformed. Saker, alas, is not among the better informed. Obviously, you are just as ill informed.

    Dumb and stupid is no way to go through life, but people such as yourself will insist on doing so, no matter the facts staring them in the face.

    Go piddle on yourself while raving about Gog and Magog, mental defective.

    Read More
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