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Russian Special Forces Repel a US-Planned Attack in Syria, Denounce the USA and Issue a Stark Warning
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Something rather unprecedented just happened in Syria: US backed “good terrorist” forces attempted a surprise attack against Syrian government forces stationed to the north and northeast of the city of Hama. What makes this attack unique is that it took place inside a so-called “de-escalation zone” and that it appears that one of the key goals of the attack was to encircle in a pincer-movement and subsequently capture a platoon of Russian military police officers deployed to monitor and enforce the special status of this zone. The Russian military police forces, composed mainly of soldiers from the Caucasus region, fought against a much larger enemy force and had to call for assistance. For the first time, at least officially, Russian special operations forces were deployed to rescue and extract their comrades. At the same time, the Russians sent in a number of close air support aircraft who reportedly killed several hundred “good” terrorists and beat back the attack (Russian sources speak of the destruction of 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points; you can see photos of the destroyed personnel and equipment here). What also makes this event unique is the official reaction of the Russians to this event.

Head of the Main Operations Department at Russia’s General Staff Colonel General Sergei Rudskoi declared that:

“Despite agreements signed in Astana on September 15, gunmen of Jabhat al-Nusra and joining them units that don’t want to comply with the cessation of hostilities terms, launched a large-scale offensive against positions of government troops north and northeast of Hama in Idlib de-escalation zone from 8 am on September 19 (…) According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor“.

Today, other Russian officials have added a not-so-veiled threat to this accusation. The Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov has declared that:

Russia unequivocally told the commanders of US forces in Al Udeid Airbase (Qatar) that it will not tolerate any shelling from the areas where the SDF are stationed (…) Fire from positions in regions [controlled by the SDF] will be suppressed by all means necessary.

This is unprecedented on many levels. First, the Russians clearly believe that this attempt to kill or capture a platoon of the Russian military police was planned by the United States. The fact that they are making this accusation officially shows the degree of irritation felt by the Russians about the duplicity of the Americans. Second, this is the first time, at least to my knowledge, that Russian Spetsnaz forces had to be sent in to rescue a surrounded Russian subunit. All Spetsnaz operators survived, but three of them were wounded in the operation (the Russians are not saying how badly). The close air support by very low flying SU-25 aircraft was obviously coordinated by Spetsnaz forward air controllers and probably saved the day. In other words, this was a close call and things could have ended much more badly (just imagine what the Takfiri crazies would have done, on video, to any captured Russian serviceman!). Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.

The big question now is “do the Russians mean it?” or are they just whining with real determination to hit back if needed.

There are a couple of problems here. First, objectively, the Russian contingent in Syria is a tiny one if compared to the immense power of CENTCOM, NATO and the ever-present Israelis. Not only that, but in any US-Russian confrontation, Russia as a country is objectively the weaker side by any measure except a full-out nuclear exchange. So the Russians are not in a position of force. Furthermore, for historical and cultural reasons, Russians are much more concerned by the initiation of any incident which could lead to all-out war than the Americans who always fight their wars in somebody else’s country. This might seem paradoxical, but the Russians fear war but they are ready for it. In contrast to the Russians, the Americans don’t fear war, but neither are they ready for it. In practical terms this means that an American miscalculation could very well lead to a Russian military response which would stun the Americans and force them to enter an escalatory spiral which nobody would control.

Remember how Hillary promised that she would unilaterally impose a so-called “no-fly” zone over Syria? She promised not only to deploy US aircraft above Russian forces in Syria, but she also promised that she would force the Russian Aerospace forces out of the Syrian skies. Thank God, this crazy witch was not elected, but it appears that folks with the same arrogant and,frankly, completely irresponsible point of view are now back in power under Trump.

My fear now is that the incompetent, arrogant, not too bright and generally ignorant commanders at the Pentagon and the CIA will simply ignore clear warning signs coming from the Russians, including the public announcement that the Kremlin has given the authority to use force to protect Russian personnel to the local Russian commanders in Syria. In plain English, this means that if they are attacked the Russians in Syria do not need to consult with Moscow before using force to protect themselves. By the way, such rules of engagement are pretty common, there is nothing earth shattering here, but the fact that they were made public is, again, a message to the AngloZionist and the “good” terrorist they use to try to conquer Syria.

ORDER IT NOW

This time around we (the world) were lucky. The Syrians fought hard and the “good” terrorists were probably surprised by the ruthless determination of the Russian military police forces (in reality, mostly Chechen special forces) and of the Spetsnaz operators. It is one thing to fight Syrian conscripts, quite another to deal with these hardened warriors. But the next time around the outcome could be different.

The bigger picture is also one which gives me a great deal of concern. The Syrians, with Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian help, have freed Deir ez-Zor and have crossed the Euphrates river and are moving further East. In plain English this means that the US and Daesh have lost the war and that the last region of Syrian from which the AngloZionists can hope to partition the country (their current “plan B”) and establish a permanent US military presence is now threatened by the Syrian advance. The distance between the US forces currently deployed in northeastern Syria and Syrian, Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian forces is becoming shorter and shorter each day. I can just imagine how, say, Iranian or Hezbollah forces which are already “smelling” the nearby presence of US forces are drooling with hunger for the moment they will finally be able to get their hands on their old and most hated foe. I feel sincerely sorry for the first US unit to make contact with the Iranians or Hezbollah forces.

Right now the Americans are hiding behind the Kurds, but sooner or later the Iranians or Hezbollah will find them. As for the Kurds, their situation in Syria is precarious, to put it mildly: they are surrounded on all sides by the Turks, the Syrians and the Iranians and their only more or less stable zone of control is in Iraq. The Americans understand that perfectly, hence their desperate attempts to stop the Syrians.

This is a very dangerous situation: even though CENTCOM and NATO are by far the “biggest guys on the block”, in Syria the Americans are cornered, their corner is shrinking fast and it remains entirely unclear how this process can be stopped. Hence the attack on the de-confliction zone we just witnessed.

I hope that eventually the Americans will do what they did in al-Taif and simply pack, declare victory and leave. That would be the only rational thing to do. But after listening to Trump at the UN I don’t get the feeling that being rational is at the top of the US priority list. That’s all rather frightening.

(Republished from The Vineyard of the Saker by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, Russia, Syria 
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  1. Obvious says:

    Kidnapping Chechen Spec Ops… Ahahahaha.. At least they have a sense of humour..

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  2. Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.

    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    Read More
    • Replies: @hunor
    " evidence not required"

    the Russians are not in a position to make an outlandish accusation ,without proof.

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

    / AL Nustra / both in the planning , and executing of the operation. the Russians presented the evidence to they

    American "partners " The American official response was that the USA considers the Al Nustra front

    a terrorist organization

    , @Thirdeye
    So what would the motive of the Russian General Staff to fabricate be?
    , @padre
    You are in such frame of mind that I don't think any evidence would satisfy you!Anyway, this i not a message to you or the general public in the west,because everything the Russian say is "fake news", but to those, who know exactly, what they are talking about!
    , @trutherator
    The evidence is in the explanation of why the Russians would not make such a denunciation lightly. And the Deep State candidate, Jezebel herself, did publicly make those threats to shoot down Russian aircraft in Syria.

    Plus smooth talking Obama said he wanted to use lots more special forces around the world as opposed to invading everywhere. Ha. Already based in more than 100 countries. Where else can they invade?

    Plus there i)h have) a the fact that we now know that
    , @Anon
    Lady doth protest too much. The US follows the commands sent to the US (captured) brains by the connoisseurs of the Golan Heights and Syrian oil fields.
    http://news.antiwar.com/2016/06/21/israeli-intel-chief-we-dont-want-isis-defeated-in-syria/ “In a speech at the Herzliya Conference, Israel’s military intelligence chief, Major General Herzi Halevy, took Israel’s long-standing position that it “prefers ISIS” over the Syrian government to a whole ‘nother level, declaring openly that Israel does not want to see ISIS defeated in the war:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-i-would-prefer-islamic-state-to-iran-in-syria/
    “In Syria, if the choice is between Iran and the Islamic State, I choose the Islamic State. They don’t have the capabilities that Iran has,” Ya’alon [Defense Minister of Israek] told a conference held by the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv"

    http://www.businessinsider.com/israel-grants-golan-heights-oil-license-2013-2
    "Israel has granted a U.S. company the first license to explore for oil and gas in the occupied Golan Heights... A local subsidiary of the New York-listed company Genie Energy — which is advised by former vice president Dick Cheney and whose shareholders include Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch — will now have exclusive rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights. That geographic location will likely prove controversial. Israel seized the Golan Heights in the Six-Day War in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981. Its administration of the area — which is not recognized by international law — has been mostly peaceful until the Syrian civil war broke out"

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  3. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.

    Read More
    • Troll: Cloak And Dagger
    • Replies: @Cyrano
    None of this needed to happen. If only someone had the presence of mind and castrated your father before he committed the mortal sin of producing a moron like you. Morons really shouldn’t be allowed to reproduce. There are already too many of them in this world.
    , @Realist
    Trump is a bozo . The fact that Trump (the US) is in Syria uninvited speaks volumes about US hegemony.

    "Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria."

    Doubtful, Trump is a dickless, brainless turd completely controlled by the Deep State.

    , @TheJester
    One need not fear US armed forces in any contest. It is a question of priorities. If there is a scheduling conflict between transgender sensitivity training and war, war is put on hold. Indeed, the US military and its leadership are dealing with so many diversity, transgender, homosexual, and feminist issues that effectiveness on the battlefield has been apparently been put on permanent hold.

    The social issues infect and affect everything. As a serious liability for the United States military, dealing with deviant social issues that require a radical suspension of belief and the acceptance of counterfactual illusions has apparently tainted the US military's ability to make realistic battlefield assessments.

    At the same time, as a long-time student of military history, I'm amazed at the comparative effectiveness of the small Russian contingent in Syria. To them, war is clearly a grueling, serious, full-time job sans illusions and delusions ... and they are very good at it.
    , @Iain W
    He is personally going to genocide Russians then? Trump is the new G.W. Bush and irrelevant as he is a puppet of the degenerate Neocons.
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  4. (in reality, mostly Chechen special forces)

    Senior Lieutenant Samoilov (MP’s platoon CO) and some of his subordinates hardly look like Chechens or any other Caucasus nationality. There are, however, also Chechens and other nationalities there.

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  5. Talha says:

    Are these the brothers we’re talking about?

    Peace.

    Read More
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  6. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    OT:

    It looks like Russia is preparing yet another bailout of the Ukrainian banking system. Following Putin’s 2014 order that it is essential for Russia to support the Ukrainian economy and banks (1), state-owned VTB Bank is, yet again, preparing to recapitalize its Ukrainian subsidiary by 2.592 Billion UAH ($100 million USD). (2, 3) VTB is not only heavily sanctioned by the West, but under Ukrainian sanctions which forbid VTB to remove profits, intrabank loans, or any other monies from the country. This is, in other words, a $100 million gift to the Ukrainian economy funneled through a subsidiary which generates constant losses.

    Oh, and as with similar “gifts” to Ukraine from state-owned Sberbank and VEB bank, VTB’s losses will ultimately be repaid by the Russian people and state.

    (1) http://tass.com/russia/750689
    (2) http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/449524.html
    (3) http://news.rin.ru/eng/news/61892/

    Read More
    • Replies: @MEexpert
    What does this have to do with the present topic? Or do you have a "hoof and mouth disease" that compels you to write something?
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  7. The chechens may be your brothers, but they’re not ours. The Russians are.

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    • Agree: Talha
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  8. hunor says:
    @Johnny Rico

    Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.
     
    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    ” evidence not required”

    the Russians are not in a position to make an outlandish accusation ,without proof.

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

    / AL Nustra / both in the planning , and executing of the operation. the Russians presented the evidence to they

    American “partners ” The American official response was that the USA considers the Al Nustra front

    a terrorist organization

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

     

    Source? Reference? Link?

    The Saker played with the text of the original article. Here is how it actually appears. The following sentence/paragraph is separated from the story above and below. It stands alone. It is not bolded.

    "According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor," he added.

     

    There is a history of fabricating events and motives and narratives in the Syrian conflict.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey. Try figuring out who is working with who and who is responsible for what on any given day.

    It is a civil war. It is a clusterfuck. All this nonsense about good and bad terrorists. Please.

    All you need is for the Russians to know that some American is meeting with a guy who's got a cousin in Al Nusra and the Ministry of Defense can say anything it wants. It's a bargaining-chip.

    The American and Russian generals communicate with each other at the same time most of the media pushes the narrative that we are entering some new kind of Cold War.

    Support the troops. Kill the bad guys. Lockheed-Martin stock is doing well. Nothing to see here. Move along.
    , @trutherator
    The evidence is in the explanation of why the Russians would not make such a denunciation lightly. And the Deep State candidate, Jezebel herself, did publicly make those threats to shoot down Russian aircraft in Syria.

    Plus smooth talking Obama said he wanted to use lots more special forces around the world as opposed to invading everywhere. Ha. Already based in more than 100 countries. Where else can they invade?

    Plus there i)h have) a the fact that we now know that
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  9. The idea of the United States actually going to war behind Donald Trump has me rolling in the aisles. What a kick! The man is a punched down ball of dough. An army led by the Pillsbury dough boy. Why not just dress the military in clown suits? Is it just me or is the propaganda directed at an ever lower browed segment of the population these days? Could anyone with half a brain believe Trump’s crap? I thought that “look at me I’m stupid” thing went out with Bush. But at least he wasn’t a spiritual jellyfish.

    Maybe, just maybe, that’s the point. Maybe the way to be the peace candidate is to make war ridiculous. Bluster and make threats only an total moron would carry out. Trump knows how to put the fact that he is a total asshole to good use. The strategy of stupidity. He’s spreading the wealth around. Anyone connected with him is contaminated. They acquire that buffoonish cast of eye. You know, that goofiness of people whose words don’t mean shit. Bullshit today and the opposite tomorrow. I think war becomes more unlikely as Trump becomes more ridiculous. He’s carrying out the very innovative total-asshole strategy to achieve his agenda. Or he might be just a pure asshole.

    But surely, surely, it would just be too ironic if Trump causes the end of the human race.

    Read More
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  10. Thirdeye says:
    @Johnny Rico

    Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.
     
    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    So what would the motive of the Russian General Staff to fabricate be?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Deception
    , @Serge Krieger
    Long and very consistent USA behavior of doing just that plus most probably intelligence. Unlike Americans Russians do not make unfounded accusations.
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  11. tomgregII says:

    Well, IMHO the yanks will go all in before they allow the mideast to ditch the petrodollar…

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  12. Cyrano says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.

    None of this needed to happen. If only someone had the presence of mind and castrated your father before he committed the mortal sin of producing a moron like you. Morons really shouldn’t be allowed to reproduce. There are already too many of them in this world.

    Read More
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  13. Realist says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.

    Trump is a bozo . The fact that Trump (the US) is in Syria uninvited speaks volumes about US hegemony.

    “Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.”

    Doubtful, Trump is a dickless, brainless turd completely controlled by the Deep State.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Christian
    Its pretty clear to me that Trump has stopped funding many of the covert operations in Syria under the Obama admin. He didn't completely stop the stupidity, I doubt anyone could, but the eminent destruction of ISIS would be far less likely if his rival had one the election.
    , @Christian
    Its pretty clear to me that Trump has stopped funding many of the covert operations in Syria under the Obama admin. He didn't completely stop the stupidity, I doubt anyone could, but the eminent destruction of ISIS would be far less likely if his rival had one the election.
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  14. I’d wager US commanders and Intel are still of the opinion that the Russians still follow the old Soviet doctrine of positive command and control from the top, regardless of what has been announced, and will test that sooner rather than later with another push.

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  15. America is under (((Foreign Control))). Obvious and beyond contention.

    Read More
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  16. TheJester says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.

    One need not fear US armed forces in any contest. It is a question of priorities. If there is a scheduling conflict between transgender sensitivity training and war, war is put on hold. Indeed, the US military and its leadership are dealing with so many diversity, transgender, homosexual, and feminist issues that effectiveness on the battlefield has been apparently been put on permanent hold.

    The social issues infect and affect everything. As a serious liability for the United States military, dealing with deviant social issues that require a radical suspension of belief and the acceptance of counterfactual illusions has apparently tainted the US military’s ability to make realistic battlefield assessments.

    At the same time, as a long-time student of military history, I’m amazed at the comparative effectiveness of the small Russian contingent in Syria. To them, war is clearly a grueling, serious, full-time job sans illusions and delusions … and they are very good at it.

    Read More
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  17. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    This is a very strange story and I find it puzzling. Could this be true? The numbers of killed and destroyed tanks and trucks seem to be rather high. Tanks? Who’s supplying them with tanks? There’s a confusing array of combatants out there, each with their own sponsors. What we need is a scorecard. Also, what’s needed is an analysis of what the US goal of setting up a separate Kurdish state is all about and what the perceived benefits are. It’s hard to tell if there’s a coherent plan behind all this or if it’s all due to confusion and gung-ho incompetence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max

    The numbers of killed and destroyed tanks and trucks seem to be rather high.
     

    My thoughts exactly. When I read about the 850 killed I knew something was fishy. I have not much looked into the Syria situation since 2014, but apparently not even Assad is buying this story/propaganda:

    The Russian/Putin Troll army was real, but that was back in 2014 mostly. I battled them and dealt with them personally, but they are not around anymore. Their trolling efforts backfired pretty much, because they were not subtle enough and so they turned off many Westerners through their in-your-face pro-Putin propaganda.
     
    - http://www.unz.com/forum/the-washington-post-blacklist-story-is-shameful-and-disgusting/#comment-1668899

    850 Nusra fighters vs. 100 Turkish-backed rebels... That moment when not even the #Assad propaganda buys the Russian lies re #Syria anymore.

    https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/911558894547333120

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  18. @Thirdeye
    So what would the motive of the Russian General Staff to fabricate be?

    Deception

    Read More
    • Replies: @Thirdeye
    circular
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  19. @hunor
    " evidence not required"

    the Russians are not in a position to make an outlandish accusation ,without proof.

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

    / AL Nustra / both in the planning , and executing of the operation. the Russians presented the evidence to they

    American "partners " The American official response was that the USA considers the Al Nustra front

    a terrorist organization

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

    Source? Reference? Link?

    The Saker played with the text of the original article. Here is how it actually appears. The following sentence/paragraph is separated from the story above and below. It stands alone. It is not bolded.

    “According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor,” he added.

    There is a history of fabricating events and motives and narratives in the Syrian conflict.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey. Try figuring out who is working with who and who is responsible for what on any given day.

    It is a civil war. It is a clusterfuck. All this nonsense about good and bad terrorists. Please.

    All you need is for the Russians to know that some American is meeting with a guy who’s got a cousin in Al Nusra and the Ministry of Defense can say anything it wants. It’s a bargaining-chip.

    The American and Russian generals communicate with each other at the same time most of the media pushes the narrative that we are entering some new kind of Cold War.

    Support the troops. Kill the bad guys. Lockheed-Martin stock is doing well. Nothing to see here. Move along.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey.
     
    100% agree - though you forgot to toss in three other major players; Iran, Israel, Saudi - everyone's got an agenda - that is prime real-estate for many strategic reasons.

    Peace.
    , @anon
    "Nothing to see here"


    No. There's a lot to see here . 1st America declares Assad should go Then UK tells Assad has left the country for Russia .NATo says it is considering erecting safe zone and someone with bewitching smile saying: I am coming I am seeing but he is not dying I will impose no- fly zone.
    Then HRW and paid and bribed NYT WaPO and Guardian CNN FOX were asking when when when , when are we going to decapitate Assadd- that Sarin gas smells bad !!!
    AIPAC and Holocaust Museum with Natanyhuu getting irtae with Obama and now with Trump for not doing yet what should have been done 4 years ago. Trump goes to UN after firing misile and warns the world of his next move against Syria and IRan.


    Against these backdrop, relentless but slow recapture of territories by the 3 enemy forces - Iran Syria and Hizbullah must have turned AIPAC , ADL Holocaust Museum ,Natanyhu and their children in Congress and cabinets pure eunuchs with dry shrunken balls hanging between two beastly legs . There is a lot to see. Now Russia has told them something that any country with balls will point to the lies and laugh at the accusation or warnings or both. US just swallow it and like a confused child spit venom at NK IRAN and VENEZUELA thinking the ground underneath his feet was responsible for his fall.

    , @Kiza
    Ah, the floating, back-stroke peddaling Hasbara turd is asking for references. Why do not you smelly turd give us links to your CIA and Mossad references?
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  20. Talha says:
    @Johnny Rico

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

     

    Source? Reference? Link?

    The Saker played with the text of the original article. Here is how it actually appears. The following sentence/paragraph is separated from the story above and below. It stands alone. It is not bolded.

    "According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor," he added.

     

    There is a history of fabricating events and motives and narratives in the Syrian conflict.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey. Try figuring out who is working with who and who is responsible for what on any given day.

    It is a civil war. It is a clusterfuck. All this nonsense about good and bad terrorists. Please.

    All you need is for the Russians to know that some American is meeting with a guy who's got a cousin in Al Nusra and the Ministry of Defense can say anything it wants. It's a bargaining-chip.

    The American and Russian generals communicate with each other at the same time most of the media pushes the narrative that we are entering some new kind of Cold War.

    Support the troops. Kill the bad guys. Lockheed-Martin stock is doing well. Nothing to see here. Move along.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey.

    100% agree – though you forgot to toss in three other major players; Iran, Israel, Saudi – everyone’s got an agenda – that is prime real-estate for many strategic reasons.

    Peace.

    Read More
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  21. polskijoe says:

    I think its possible that the Russian army (ground) is possibly equal or better than US army.

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&country1=russia&country2=united-states-of-america&Submit=COMPARE

    Based on total numbers, and firepower.

    The US is stronger in Air and Navy.

    The Russian military is transitioning to focus more on airforce and navy. While retiring old tanks.

    Read More
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  22. This is a very, very dangerous situation. And it is by no means clear who will blink first. All the contemptuous things that may be said about Trump only add to the danger. Yes, he’s both a bully and a coward (as most bullies are). That’s why he fired Bannon (who was going to get him out of Syria) and then put the Junta (of Mattis, McMaster and Kelly) over him–to “make a man out of him.” That’s why Trump’s Dad sent him to Military School. So Trump will follow orders as he did back then. The military discipline didn’t stick. But his military school years were the best he ever felt about himself. That’s why he put the Junta over him now. And the Junta is out to be great generals all and win where others have failed. They’ll be the Grants and Shermans of the 21st century. They’ll win the Syrian War, the Afghan War, and the Korean War. (Just follow McArthur’s nuclear plan!) Defeat Iran too– and send Russia running back to its borders. (Obama and HRC both privately pegged Putin as an appeaser a la letting the Kiev coup go through and just defending Crimea.) In Syria, Plan B was always to create a separate state of Kurdistan in Eastern Syria; build scores of US bases there; and cut off Hezbollah from Iran. Then let Israel wipe out Hezbollah (Good luck with that one!) and extend Israel’s borders to the Litani River, which would then be diverted South to irrigate Israeli lands. Then Israel and the US would catch and destroy Assad in a pincer movement. And it’s assumed Putin will withdraw rather than fight. He’s already said on the record that Russia doesn’t need Syria to survive. And if that causes the hardliners to topple him, the US will be ready with a First Strike option by then. I believe “Mad Dog” Mattis and McMaster think they can pull it off. They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    Read More
    • LOL: CK
    • Replies: @nickels
    Thanks for that analysis.
    That put into geography a bunch of random things I have read.
    , @Indi1
    Dr. Chrales' point is well taken! The word needs to get out about thisunderlying psychology! I had never made the connection before between Trump's time in military school and his military advisors!
    , @El Dato
    Pretty much this.

    You are just leaving out Saudi Arabia (still hell-bent on "leveraging" Sunni Radicalism to throw its might around but getting a first rash of blowback), Pakistan and India (both interested in having a role in the future of Afghanistan while mooning each other over a sometimes-hot funny border war) and China (apparently probing the anus of the good old USA and not ready to play running dog lackey)
    , @in the middle
    They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    yeah we both know what became of Custer, don't we?
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  23. paull says:

    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn’t interested in winning battles. It’s interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria’s sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let’s just say that the more powerful a country is, the more ‘sovereignty’ it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    You make too much sense. This wouldn't even be a story in the US if it wasn't for this piece on UNZ. Hell, it still isn't a story.

    I was going to predict (which I rarely do) earlier that nobody would be talking about this in 30 days. I'll change that to nobody is talking about this now.
    , @Dr. Charles
    I do not believe that any of us should be permitted by the moderators to engage in vicious slurs, as in adding the epithet, "McNasty," to The Saker's illustrious nom de plume (or nom de guerre, as the case may be). The Saker never descends to such mud-slinging. He is ever challenging, but never girlishly "nasty." Such insult-throwing only inflames us all to turn troll. The moderators should not allow it. If a comment otherwise has merit, the moderators should have the option of sending the comment back to the writer to decide if he wants to have his comment published without these self-degrading slurs that substitute for rational debate. As for your "Americanized" (Animal Farm) version of what Putin thinks about sovereignty, it's certainly contrary to everything I know about the man (based on my own long professional study of his words and deeds)---starting with his lifelong (literally since age 13) commitment to the moral philosophy of Judo or "Gentle Path" in Japanese (reinforced by his post-1996 embrace of Orthodox Christianity): which holds that all people are equal and deserving of mutual respect, regardless of size, as expressed by the obligatory exchange of bows before matches. And Putin has carried that through to international relations, as often stated in his addresses at international forums. That said, he may decide that it may be in everyone's best interest to avoid a hot war with the US for now and let the US partition Syria for the time being--knowing that this new Kurdistan is not apt to last very long with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and possibly China (as a major oil/gas buyer) all opposed to it and only Israel and the US supporting it. At the same time a new Kurdistan means that the US, NATO, and Israel will lose Turkey to Russia forever. And that is a very bad trade off! Though I, for one, believe that if Putin does allow this partitioning to happen, the 3 generals now running Trump are likely to see this as further evidence of their own bogus (US-propaganda contradicting) theory of Putin's "appeasement" tendencies and go for a "limited" First Strike option (meaning: "accept our total destruction of your nuclear forces and unconditionally surrender or our Second Strike will incinerate every Russian city!"). And that will be the ballgame. Whereas The Saker finds this idea that Trump's damned generals are so Hell-bent on ruling the world that they would actually go for a First Strike option just too... well... insane. True Son of the Enlightenment he! Just joking :-) I'm not joking, however, when I say that it is my true belief that these Hell-bound generals now ruling Trump and our "post-Christian" Empire are so blinded by Satanic pride and lustful delusions of grandeur that they may well bring down a nuclear Armageddon upon us all.
    , @Bayan
    It seems so, you make sense.
    , @peterAUS
    Agree.

    Especially with:

    Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants.
     

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria’s sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let’s just say that the more powerful a country is, the more ‘sovereignty’ it has.
     

    Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized…
     
    , @pappa gone
    Russia didn't want war at his home, but wants a confrontation to make understand americans that they can't decide whatever all around the world, they became understand that isn't the only player in the world (as their bosses thinkings), and america must understand to stay calm. And understand that their behavior must change completely and fast !(what they can't ever did, thinks if have a war at home the things changes very much)
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  24. nickels says:
    @Dr. Charles
    This is a very, very dangerous situation. And it is by no means clear who will blink first. All the contemptuous things that may be said about Trump only add to the danger. Yes, he's both a bully and a coward (as most bullies are). That's why he fired Bannon (who was going to get him out of Syria) and then put the Junta (of Mattis, McMaster and Kelly) over him--to "make a man out of him." That's why Trump's Dad sent him to Military School. So Trump will follow orders as he did back then. The military discipline didn't stick. But his military school years were the best he ever felt about himself. That's why he put the Junta over him now. And the Junta is out to be great generals all and win where others have failed. They'll be the Grants and Shermans of the 21st century. They'll win the Syrian War, the Afghan War, and the Korean War. (Just follow McArthur's nuclear plan!) Defeat Iran too-- and send Russia running back to its borders. (Obama and HRC both privately pegged Putin as an appeaser a la letting the Kiev coup go through and just defending Crimea.) In Syria, Plan B was always to create a separate state of Kurdistan in Eastern Syria; build scores of US bases there; and cut off Hezbollah from Iran. Then let Israel wipe out Hezbollah (Good luck with that one!) and extend Israel's borders to the Litani River, which would then be diverted South to irrigate Israeli lands. Then Israel and the US would catch and destroy Assad in a pincer movement. And it's assumed Putin will withdraw rather than fight. He's already said on the record that Russia doesn't need Syria to survive. And if that causes the hardliners to topple him, the US will be ready with a First Strike option by then. I believe "Mad Dog" Mattis and McMaster think they can pull it off. They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    Thanks for that analysis.
    That put into geography a bunch of random things I have read.

    Read More
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  25. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Johnny Rico

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

     

    Source? Reference? Link?

    The Saker played with the text of the original article. Here is how it actually appears. The following sentence/paragraph is separated from the story above and below. It stands alone. It is not bolded.

    "According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor," he added.

     

    There is a history of fabricating events and motives and narratives in the Syrian conflict.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey. Try figuring out who is working with who and who is responsible for what on any given day.

    It is a civil war. It is a clusterfuck. All this nonsense about good and bad terrorists. Please.

    All you need is for the Russians to know that some American is meeting with a guy who's got a cousin in Al Nusra and the Ministry of Defense can say anything it wants. It's a bargaining-chip.

    The American and Russian generals communicate with each other at the same time most of the media pushes the narrative that we are entering some new kind of Cold War.

    Support the troops. Kill the bad guys. Lockheed-Martin stock is doing well. Nothing to see here. Move along.

    “Nothing to see here”

    No. There’s a lot to see here . 1st America declares Assad should go Then UK tells Assad has left the country for Russia .NATo says it is considering erecting safe zone and someone with bewitching smile saying: I am coming I am seeing but he is not dying I will impose no- fly zone.
    Then HRW and paid and bribed NYT WaPO and Guardian CNN FOX were asking when when when , when are we going to decapitate Assadd- that Sarin gas smells bad !!!
    AIPAC and Holocaust Museum with Natanyhuu getting irtae with Obama and now with Trump for not doing yet what should have been done 4 years ago. Trump goes to UN after firing misile and warns the world of his next move against Syria and IRan.

    Against these backdrop, relentless but slow recapture of territories by the 3 enemy forces – Iran Syria and Hizbullah must have turned AIPAC , ADL Holocaust Museum ,Natanyhu and their children in Congress and cabinets pure eunuchs with dry shrunken balls hanging between two beastly legs . There is a lot to see. Now Russia has told them something that any country with balls will point to the lies and laugh at the accusation or warnings or both. US just swallow it and like a confused child spit venom at NK IRAN and VENEZUELA thinking the ground underneath his feet was responsible for his fall.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Good story. See how long you can keep that up.
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  26. @paull
    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn't interested in winning battles. It's interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria's sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let's just say that the more powerful a country is, the more 'sovereignty' it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized...

    You make too much sense. This wouldn’t even be a story in the US if it wasn’t for this piece on UNZ. Hell, it still isn’t a story.

    I was going to predict (which I rarely do) earlier that nobody would be talking about this in 30 days. I’ll change that to nobody is talking about this now.

    Read More
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  27. Thirdeye says:
    @Johnny Rico
    Deception

    circular

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Black Sabbath
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  28. … 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points

    Forgot to mention the 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    Russia Insider claims this story was their 'scoop'.

    Then they published another article:
    [Sources Confirm Our Scoop - a Huge Russian Victory Over ‘US Secret Services’ in Syria]
    {A lot of people didn't believe us, or the Russian Defense Ministry. Turns out we were right.}

    RI says confirmation comes from.....[Almasdar News, which is generally reliable, covered it:]

    So I went to the Almasdar link in the RI article.

    Almasdar article lists some numbers.
    There are also a few pics:
    One pic of a pickup bed full of dead bodies, no more than dozen or so.
    Three pics of one dead guy each.
    No pics of hundreds of dead terrorists.

    One picture of a heavy tank and one picture of light tank or tracked APC.
    So its pretty hard to tell what the real numbers are.
    I am sure terrorists got hit, but hard to tell if the numbers quoted in the article are real.

    , @Serge Krieger
    So cute. I see, unless it is victorious Russian Imperial forces in Manchuria or WWI everything else is up for irony attack.
    Actually I had to google those 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders to find what are those. Looks like some video games.
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  29. @Thirdeye
    circular

    Black Sabbath

    Read More
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  30. @anon
    "Nothing to see here"


    No. There's a lot to see here . 1st America declares Assad should go Then UK tells Assad has left the country for Russia .NATo says it is considering erecting safe zone and someone with bewitching smile saying: I am coming I am seeing but he is not dying I will impose no- fly zone.
    Then HRW and paid and bribed NYT WaPO and Guardian CNN FOX were asking when when when , when are we going to decapitate Assadd- that Sarin gas smells bad !!!
    AIPAC and Holocaust Museum with Natanyhuu getting irtae with Obama and now with Trump for not doing yet what should have been done 4 years ago. Trump goes to UN after firing misile and warns the world of his next move against Syria and IRan.


    Against these backdrop, relentless but slow recapture of territories by the 3 enemy forces - Iran Syria and Hizbullah must have turned AIPAC , ADL Holocaust Museum ,Natanyhu and their children in Congress and cabinets pure eunuchs with dry shrunken balls hanging between two beastly legs . There is a lot to see. Now Russia has told them something that any country with balls will point to the lies and laugh at the accusation or warnings or both. US just swallow it and like a confused child spit venom at NK IRAN and VENEZUELA thinking the ground underneath his feet was responsible for his fall.

    Good story. See how long you can keep that up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @El Dato
    Pretty much what's in the News.

    Watch CNN and just look beyond the dead eyes and fleshy mouth of the announcerette.
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  31. Schmid says:

    I wonder why the Rebels /Islamist don’t opt for a radical guerilla tactic. Why does they operate in a way, they risk being shot from air, a large amount of them in one place with their heavy material, being an easy target for air-forces? Isn’t this crazy? I’m by far no military expert, so just asking.

    Other questions are the credibility of the sources and the possibility of other narrative, for example if this was a trap (what I don’t think, but can this be excluded?).

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the "facts" as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414
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  32. @paull
    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn't interested in winning battles. It's interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria's sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let's just say that the more powerful a country is, the more 'sovereignty' it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized...

    I do not believe that any of us should be permitted by the moderators to engage in vicious slurs, as in adding the epithet, “McNasty,” to The Saker’s illustrious nom de plume (or nom de guerre, as the case may be). The Saker never descends to such mud-slinging. He is ever challenging, but never girlishly “nasty.” Such insult-throwing only inflames us all to turn troll. The moderators should not allow it. If a comment otherwise has merit, the moderators should have the option of sending the comment back to the writer to decide if he wants to have his comment published without these self-degrading slurs that substitute for rational debate. As for your “Americanized” (Animal Farm) version of what Putin thinks about sovereignty, it’s certainly contrary to everything I know about the man (based on my own long professional study of his words and deeds)—starting with his lifelong (literally since age 13) commitment to the moral philosophy of Judo or “Gentle Path” in Japanese (reinforced by his post-1996 embrace of Orthodox Christianity): which holds that all people are equal and deserving of mutual respect, regardless of size, as expressed by the obligatory exchange of bows before matches. And Putin has carried that through to international relations, as often stated in his addresses at international forums. That said, he may decide that it may be in everyone’s best interest to avoid a hot war with the US for now and let the US partition Syria for the time being–knowing that this new Kurdistan is not apt to last very long with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and possibly China (as a major oil/gas buyer) all opposed to it and only Israel and the US supporting it. At the same time a new Kurdistan means that the US, NATO, and Israel will lose Turkey to Russia forever. And that is a very bad trade off! Though I, for one, believe that if Putin does allow this partitioning to happen, the 3 generals now running Trump are likely to see this as further evidence of their own bogus (US-propaganda contradicting) theory of Putin’s “appeasement” tendencies and go for a “limited” First Strike option (meaning: “accept our total destruction of your nuclear forces and unconditionally surrender or our Second Strike will incinerate every Russian city!”). And that will be the ballgame. Whereas The Saker finds this idea that Trump’s damned generals are so Hell-bent on ruling the world that they would actually go for a First Strike option just too… well… insane. True Son of the Enlightenment he! Just joking :-) I’m not joking, however, when I say that it is my true belief that these Hell-bound generals now ruling Trump and our “post-Christian” Empire are so blinded by Satanic pride and lustful delusions of grandeur that they may well bring down a nuclear Armageddon upon us all.

    Read More
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  33. @Schmid
    I wonder why the Rebels /Islamist don't opt for a radical guerilla tactic. Why does they operate in a way, they risk being shot from air, a large amount of them in one place with their heavy material, being an easy target for air-forces? Isn't this crazy? I'm by far no military expert, so just asking.

    Other questions are the credibility of the sources and the possibility of other narrative, for example if this was a trap (what I don't think, but can this be excluded?).

    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the “facts” as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seamus Padraig
    Newsweek? Are you joking? What next? Reader's Digest?
    , @Koopa
    It's Newsweek. It's American. Therefore it doesn't matter what the "early take" is because it will always be false.
    , @KA
    Accusation is not new . American scholars have accused of the same practices . American government has had a love hate relationship with this terrorists outfit .

    RAND corporation was very clear and explicit in its urging that America should embrace Jihadist to reach its goal.
    America is recapturing its past association with Fascist and with Nazis . Nothing remarkable or out of character . It is par the course .
    What is confusing is the half baked attempts to undermine Assad without a ready coherent opposition who America can present . It seems American plans embrace the theory of vivisection of Syria by different weakened groups as it happening in Libya . But what is different here is the presence of strong interested neighbors who have designs on this land . US wants to satisfy them . Then use the platform to project its power over Iran and possibly wobbly vacillating East European countries . Once Iran is corralled , America most likely target the belt and road initiative of China .
    It is very important for America to succeed in Syria. Otherwise it is done as far power projection is concerned. This is the reason America agreed to let Assad stay but within demarcated zone . Although it is doubtful if it could have done otherwise . This is plan B .
    , @Schmid
    It's very clear, that the US is allied with islamist terrorists in the war against Assad. Newsweek is in this point just telling usual propaganda.

    See Operation Timber Sycamore!

    See the fact, that the IS could get a lot of arms from US-stock in Irak. It would have be easy for the US to use this stock as a trap: Shut all down when the terrorist are taking the weapon. But the US let the terrorists taking the weapons! Isn't this clear enough? Trump was not completely wrong when he stated, that the Islamic State was found by Obama and Clinton.

    The point is, the sources here gives one view of what happens, this must not be the whole truth what really happened. But you can trust Russian information a lot more than US.

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  34. @Johnny Rico
    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the "facts" as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414

    Newsweek? Are you joking? What next? Reader’s Digest?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Wait. Newsweek? Is that what I linked to?

    Sorry. Yeah. I didn't realize it wasn't on the the approved list of sources. Forgive me.

    People see what they believe. Not the other way around. History is unpredictable.
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  35. Koopa says:

    Islamic Eschatology can explain much of this.

    Read More
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  36. Koopa says:
    @Johnny Rico
    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the "facts" as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414

    It’s Newsweek. It’s American. Therefore it doesn’t matter what the “early take” is because it will always be false.

    Read More
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  37. Bayan says:
    @paull
    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn't interested in winning battles. It's interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria's sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let's just say that the more powerful a country is, the more 'sovereignty' it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized...

    It seems so, you make sense.

    Read More
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  38. KA says:
    @Johnny Rico
    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the "facts" as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414

    Accusation is not new . American scholars have accused of the same practices . American government has had a love hate relationship with this terrorists outfit .

    RAND corporation was very clear and explicit in its urging that America should embrace Jihadist to reach its goal.
    America is recapturing its past association with Fascist and with Nazis . Nothing remarkable or out of character . It is par the course .
    What is confusing is the half baked attempts to undermine Assad without a ready coherent opposition who America can present . It seems American plans embrace the theory of vivisection of Syria by different weakened groups as it happening in Libya . But what is different here is the presence of strong interested neighbors who have designs on this land . US wants to satisfy them . Then use the platform to project its power over Iran and possibly wobbly vacillating East European countries . Once Iran is corralled , America most likely target the belt and road initiative of China .
    It is very important for America to succeed in Syria. Otherwise it is done as far power projection is concerned. This is the reason America agreed to let Assad stay but within demarcated zone . Although it is doubtful if it could have done otherwise . This is plan B .

    Read More
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  39. Iain W says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria.

    He is personally going to genocide Russians then? Trump is the new G.W. Bush and irrelevant as he is a puppet of the degenerate Neocons.

    Read More
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  40. Iain W says:

    Maybe the Russians have now finally realised after processing all the permutations in their ‘reflexive control’ model that talk is useless with the perfidious and odious US degenerates. The US is now an existential threat to the existence of Russia along with other non US aligned countries. If so, this will become a fight for survival at some point.

    Read More
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  41. CPH says:

    There is a contingent within the American government which has been pushing for war with Russia since Trump was elected. Unfortunately, any clear signals from the Russians that what this incident represents will not be tolerated is exactly what they are looking for. The bet they’ll make is that the Russian government will not respond to the next provocation with a credible threat to escalate to nuclear war. Anything short of nuclear is excellent for business but the profit potential of nuclear bombs is limited.

    Read More
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  42. Schmid says:
    @Johnny Rico
    The Saker piece you read above is, in itself, a deception, however unintentional or not it may be.

    It does this by presenting its own narrative and context for the "facts" as provided by the linked articles. And also, leaving out any awkward details that might not match the desired narrative.

    Any history of this incident written a year from now will look quite different. As will one written 10 years from now.

    Here is another early take on the context.

    http://www.newsweek.com/russia-accuses-us-working-al-q-affiliate-syria-668414

    It’s very clear, that the US is allied with islamist terrorists in the war against Assad. Newsweek is in this point just telling usual propaganda.

    See Operation Timber Sycamore!

    See the fact, that the IS could get a lot of arms from US-stock in Irak. It would have be easy for the US to use this stock as a trap: Shut all down when the terrorist are taking the weapon. But the US let the terrorists taking the weapons! Isn’t this clear enough? Trump was not completely wrong when he stated, that the Islamic State was found by Obama and Clinton.

    The point is, the sources here gives one view of what happens, this must not be the whole truth what really happened. But you can trust Russian information a lot more than US.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    That's fine. I agree with a bunch of what you say.

    But at least a few openminded and skeptical people here will read that Newsweek article and compare it carefully to the Russian pieces, do more research, and make their own judgements.

    The world will not be worse off for the exercise.

    I'm going to spend my day reading Japanese history and then in the company of some of my favorite American women.

    Cheers
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  43. @Seamus Padraig
    Newsweek? Are you joking? What next? Reader's Digest?

    Wait. Newsweek? Is that what I linked to?

    Sorry. Yeah. I didn’t realize it wasn’t on the the approved list of sources. Forgive me.

    People see what they believe. Not the other way around. History is unpredictable.

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    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    I think his point is that mainstream sources like Newsweek (or CNN etc.) are simply mouthpieces for the US government and not even remotely objective or useful sources of information (little better than Pravda in the old USSR). And he's entirely right.

    It should be kept in mind, the Russians are in Syria at the request of the legitimate government of Syria, whereas the US-supported Jihadists are neither organic nor supported by any significant portion of the Syrian population.
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  44. @Schmid
    It's very clear, that the US is allied with islamist terrorists in the war against Assad. Newsweek is in this point just telling usual propaganda.

    See Operation Timber Sycamore!

    See the fact, that the IS could get a lot of arms from US-stock in Irak. It would have be easy for the US to use this stock as a trap: Shut all down when the terrorist are taking the weapon. But the US let the terrorists taking the weapons! Isn't this clear enough? Trump was not completely wrong when he stated, that the Islamic State was found by Obama and Clinton.

    The point is, the sources here gives one view of what happens, this must not be the whole truth what really happened. But you can trust Russian information a lot more than US.

    That’s fine. I agree with a bunch of what you say.

    But at least a few openminded and skeptical people here will read that Newsweek article and compare it carefully to the Russian pieces, do more research, and make their own judgements.

    The world will not be worse off for the exercise.

    I’m going to spend my day reading Japanese history and then in the company of some of my favorite American women.

    Cheers

    Read More
    • Replies: @Schmid
    Thank you for your reply. I agree. Especially for "will read that Newsweek article and compare it carefully to the Russian pieces, do more research, and make their own judgements." Just to mention, before I write my above reply, I have read your link, the Newsweek article. I find it very important to read contradictory texts and to proceed as you say: making own judgement.
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  45. Indi1 says:
    @Dr. Charles
    This is a very, very dangerous situation. And it is by no means clear who will blink first. All the contemptuous things that may be said about Trump only add to the danger. Yes, he's both a bully and a coward (as most bullies are). That's why he fired Bannon (who was going to get him out of Syria) and then put the Junta (of Mattis, McMaster and Kelly) over him--to "make a man out of him." That's why Trump's Dad sent him to Military School. So Trump will follow orders as he did back then. The military discipline didn't stick. But his military school years were the best he ever felt about himself. That's why he put the Junta over him now. And the Junta is out to be great generals all and win where others have failed. They'll be the Grants and Shermans of the 21st century. They'll win the Syrian War, the Afghan War, and the Korean War. (Just follow McArthur's nuclear plan!) Defeat Iran too-- and send Russia running back to its borders. (Obama and HRC both privately pegged Putin as an appeaser a la letting the Kiev coup go through and just defending Crimea.) In Syria, Plan B was always to create a separate state of Kurdistan in Eastern Syria; build scores of US bases there; and cut off Hezbollah from Iran. Then let Israel wipe out Hezbollah (Good luck with that one!) and extend Israel's borders to the Litani River, which would then be diverted South to irrigate Israeli lands. Then Israel and the US would catch and destroy Assad in a pincer movement. And it's assumed Putin will withdraw rather than fight. He's already said on the record that Russia doesn't need Syria to survive. And if that causes the hardliners to topple him, the US will be ready with a First Strike option by then. I believe "Mad Dog" Mattis and McMaster think they can pull it off. They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    Dr. Chrales’ point is well taken! The word needs to get out about thisunderlying psychology! I had never made the connection before between Trump’s time in military school and his military advisors!

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  46. That al-Nusra attacked Idlib is likely. It’s what they do. To say that it was orchestrated in any way by the US is not. We don’t coordinate or push any ops with al-Nusra. The current al-Nusra is a splinter of ISIS. The US is in the business of killing ISIS, not supporting them. I’m glad the Russians are having success in killing al-Nusra, too.
    Note in the original TASS article there is zero mention of any US-Russian interaction. http://tass.com/defense/966624

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    • Replies: @Schmid
    "The US is in the business of killing ISIS, not supporting them."

    This is US-Propaganda. The US "war on terror" is a fake. The contrary is true: The US uses terrorists to fulfill their goals. ISIS and other Islamist groups are nothing else than sort of mercenary army for the US and their allies.

    Some considerations leading to this conclusion:

    1.Until Russia came to help Assad, ISIS and the other Islamist gets more and more power and would have overthrow Assad. Despite the official claimed "war on terror" of the US.

    2. See operation Timber Sycamore

    3. Why could ISIS get so much weapons the US have stored in Iraq for the Iraq Army? Couldn't they prevent this?

    4 Why didn't the US bombarding the oil convoy of the ISIS to Turkey (it was the Russian who begin with this)?http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3324789/Russia-hits-ISIS-hurts-Raids-target-oil-trucks-Syria.html

    5 Why the US didn't do anything against Saudi-Arabia (no sanctions!) when it's clear, that the terrorists of 9/11 has connections to Saudi-Arabia https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/saudi-arabia-911-victims-lawsuit-prior-knowledge-world-trade-center-terror-attack-twin-towers-a7644016.html, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/congress-set-release-info-detailing-saudi-arabia-9-11-ties-article-1.2713092 and others)?

    6. The founder of ISIS where Iraqi Generals, trained from the US in the Irak-Iran war. The decision of these Generals to create ISIS was made in US-camp "Camp Bucca" where they was captive. This decision was known by red-cross workers who worked in this camp. So this decision must have be known from the US! They let it happen. And this story is supported by official documents of the secret agency DIA and what the ex-DIA-Chief Gen. Michael Flynn told https://levantreport.com/2015/08/06/former-dia-chief-michael-flynn-says-rise-of-islamic-state-was-a-willful-decision-and-defends-accuracy-of-2012-memo/ and http://www.judicialwatch.org/document-archive/jw-v-dod-and-state-14-812-dod-release-2015-04-10/

    7. See https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-dirty-war-on-syria/5491859


    and so on. The list is very long.

    , @Beefcake the Mighty
    ISIS is a CIA-Mossad mercenary army. How much they freelance is perhaps an open question, but whether they are completely untethered is not.
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  47. Christian says:
    @Realist
    Trump is a bozo . The fact that Trump (the US) is in Syria uninvited speaks volumes about US hegemony.

    "Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria."

    Doubtful, Trump is a dickless, brainless turd completely controlled by the Deep State.

    Its pretty clear to me that Trump has stopped funding many of the covert operations in Syria under the Obama admin. He didn’t completely stop the stupidity, I doubt anyone could, but the eminent destruction of ISIS would be far less likely if his rival had one the election.

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  48. Christian says:
    @Realist
    Trump is a bozo . The fact that Trump (the US) is in Syria uninvited speaks volumes about US hegemony.

    "Trump will slaughter the Russians in Syria."

    Doubtful, Trump is a dickless, brainless turd completely controlled by the Deep State.

    Its pretty clear to me that Trump has stopped funding many of the covert operations in Syria under the Obama admin. He didn’t completely stop the stupidity, I doubt anyone could, but the eminent destruction of ISIS would be far less likely if his rival had one the election.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Realist
    The US should not be in any part of Syria.
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  49. El Dato says:
    @Dr. Charles
    This is a very, very dangerous situation. And it is by no means clear who will blink first. All the contemptuous things that may be said about Trump only add to the danger. Yes, he's both a bully and a coward (as most bullies are). That's why he fired Bannon (who was going to get him out of Syria) and then put the Junta (of Mattis, McMaster and Kelly) over him--to "make a man out of him." That's why Trump's Dad sent him to Military School. So Trump will follow orders as he did back then. The military discipline didn't stick. But his military school years were the best he ever felt about himself. That's why he put the Junta over him now. And the Junta is out to be great generals all and win where others have failed. They'll be the Grants and Shermans of the 21st century. They'll win the Syrian War, the Afghan War, and the Korean War. (Just follow McArthur's nuclear plan!) Defeat Iran too-- and send Russia running back to its borders. (Obama and HRC both privately pegged Putin as an appeaser a la letting the Kiev coup go through and just defending Crimea.) In Syria, Plan B was always to create a separate state of Kurdistan in Eastern Syria; build scores of US bases there; and cut off Hezbollah from Iran. Then let Israel wipe out Hezbollah (Good luck with that one!) and extend Israel's borders to the Litani River, which would then be diverted South to irrigate Israeli lands. Then Israel and the US would catch and destroy Assad in a pincer movement. And it's assumed Putin will withdraw rather than fight. He's already said on the record that Russia doesn't need Syria to survive. And if that causes the hardliners to topple him, the US will be ready with a First Strike option by then. I believe "Mad Dog" Mattis and McMaster think they can pull it off. They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    Pretty much this.

    You are just leaving out Saudi Arabia (still hell-bent on “leveraging” Sunni Radicalism to throw its might around but getting a first rash of blowback), Pakistan and India (both interested in having a role in the future of Afghanistan while mooning each other over a sometimes-hot funny border war) and China (apparently probing the anus of the good old USA and not ready to play running dog lackey)

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  50. El Dato says:
    @Johnny Rico
    Good story. See how long you can keep that up.

    Pretty much what’s in the News.

    Watch CNN and just look beyond the dead eyes and fleshy mouth of the announcerette.

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  51. Realist says:
    @Christian
    Its pretty clear to me that Trump has stopped funding many of the covert operations in Syria under the Obama admin. He didn't completely stop the stupidity, I doubt anyone could, but the eminent destruction of ISIS would be far less likely if his rival had one the election.

    The US should not be in any part of Syria.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    "There will never be peace in the Middle-East and in a hundred years it won't matter because we will all be dead."
    -my East German-defector (he was rumored to have commandeered an APC and driven it across the border) Defense Journalism professor at BU circa 1993

    Those, however, are predictions and I don't know what the future holds.

    I would say we probably shouldn't be in Syria either. But that is probably an unlikely outcome and problematic expectation.

    In regards to American involvement there, my opinion is that it is better Trump is President than Hillary. No regrets there. And I didn't vote for either one.

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  52. @Realist
    The US should not be in any part of Syria.

    “There will never be peace in the Middle-East and in a hundred years it won’t matter because we will all be dead.”
    -my East German-defector (he was rumored to have commandeered an APC and driven it across the border) Defense Journalism professor at BU circa 1993

    Those, however, are predictions and I don’t know what the future holds.

    I would say we probably shouldn’t be in Syria either. But that is probably an unlikely outcome and problematic expectation.

    In regards to American involvement there, my opinion is that it is better Trump is President than Hillary. No regrets there. And I didn’t vote for either one.

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  53. peterAUS says:
    @paull
    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn't interested in winning battles. It's interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria's sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let's just say that the more powerful a country is, the more 'sovereignty' it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized...

    Agree.

    Especially with:

    Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria’s sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let’s just say that the more powerful a country is, the more ‘sovereignty’ it has.

    Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized…

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  54. FKA Max says: • Website
    @anonymous
    This is a very strange story and I find it puzzling. Could this be true? The numbers of killed and destroyed tanks and trucks seem to be rather high. Tanks? Who's supplying them with tanks? There's a confusing array of combatants out there, each with their own sponsors. What we need is a scorecard. Also, what's needed is an analysis of what the US goal of setting up a separate Kurdish state is all about and what the perceived benefits are. It's hard to tell if there's a coherent plan behind all this or if it's all due to confusion and gung-ho incompetence.

    The numbers of killed and destroyed tanks and trucks seem to be rather high.

    My thoughts exactly. When I read about the 850 killed I knew something was fishy. I have not much looked into the Syria situation since 2014, but apparently not even Assad is buying this story/propaganda:

    The Russian/Putin Troll army was real, but that was back in 2014 mostly. I battled them and dealt with them personally, but they are not around anymore. Their trolling efforts backfired pretty much, because they were not subtle enough and so they turned off many Westerners through their in-your-face pro-Putin propaganda.

    http://www.unz.com/forum/the-washington-post-blacklist-story-is-shameful-and-disgusting/#comment-1668899

    850 Nusra fighters vs. 100 Turkish-backed rebels… That moment when not even the #Assad propaganda buys the Russian lies re #Syria anymore.

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  55. Avery says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    ... 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points
     
    Forgot to mention the 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders.

    Russia Insider claims this story was their ‘scoop’.

    Then they published another article:
    [Sources Confirm Our Scoop - a Huge Russian Victory Over ‘US Secret Services’ in Syria]
    {A lot of people didn’t believe us, or the Russian Defense Ministry. Turns out we were right.}

    RI says confirmation comes from…..[Almasdar News, which is generally reliable, covered it:]

    So I went to the Almasdar link in the RI article.

    Almasdar article lists some numbers.
    There are also a few pics:
    One pic of a pickup bed full of dead bodies, no more than dozen or so.
    Three pics of one dead guy each.
    No pics of hundreds of dead terrorists.

    One picture of a heavy tank and one picture of light tank or tracked APC.
    So its pretty hard to tell what the real numbers are.
    I am sure terrorists got hit, but hard to tell if the numbers quoted in the article are real.

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    • Replies: @trutherator
    Details. Like Vietnam body counts.
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  56. Kiza says:
    @Johnny Rico

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

     

    Source? Reference? Link?

    The Saker played with the text of the original article. Here is how it actually appears. The following sentence/paragraph is separated from the story above and below. It stands alone. It is not bolded.

    "According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor," he added.

     

    There is a history of fabricating events and motives and narratives in the Syrian conflict.

    Everybody is playing games. Russia, The US, Syria, The Kurds, Turkey. Try figuring out who is working with who and who is responsible for what on any given day.

    It is a civil war. It is a clusterfuck. All this nonsense about good and bad terrorists. Please.

    All you need is for the Russians to know that some American is meeting with a guy who's got a cousin in Al Nusra and the Ministry of Defense can say anything it wants. It's a bargaining-chip.

    The American and Russian generals communicate with each other at the same time most of the media pushes the narrative that we are entering some new kind of Cold War.

    Support the troops. Kill the bad guys. Lockheed-Martin stock is doing well. Nothing to see here. Move along.

    Ah, the floating, back-stroke peddaling Hasbara turd is asking for references. Why do not you smelly turd give us links to your CIA and Mossad references?

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    I was raised in Europe and Saudi Arabia. My parents are both American. My father is of Protestant German descent. My mother is Irish and Italian. I have lived in Boston for 30 years.

    I was baptized Greek Orthodox and later raised Catholic. I am a fan of Philip Giraldi. I am not a supporter of the Israeli state or Saudi Arabia for that matter.

    Those are some things about me.

    You are mentally ill. Don't bother responding, your observation and analysis are faulty.

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  57. MEexpert says:
    @Anonymous
    OT:

    It looks like Russia is preparing yet another bailout of the Ukrainian banking system. Following Putin's 2014 order that it is essential for Russia to support the Ukrainian economy and banks (1), state-owned VTB Bank is, yet again, preparing to recapitalize its Ukrainian subsidiary by 2.592 Billion UAH ($100 million USD). (2, 3) VTB is not only heavily sanctioned by the West, but under Ukrainian sanctions which forbid VTB to remove profits, intrabank loans, or any other monies from the country. This is, in other words, a $100 million gift to the Ukrainian economy funneled through a subsidiary which generates constant losses.

    Oh, and as with similar "gifts" to Ukraine from state-owned Sberbank and VEB bank, VTB's losses will ultimately be repaid by the Russian people and state.

    (1) http://tass.com/russia/750689
    (2) http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/449524.html
    (3) http://news.rin.ru/eng/news/61892/

    What does this have to do with the present topic? Or do you have a “hoof and mouth disease” that compels you to write something?

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  58. TheCensor says:

    Thesaker more like TheCensor

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  59. Sloopyjoe says:

    The Talmudic Terrorists of Israel are soiling their diapers over the imminent defeat of their (Mossad/CIA) created ISIS terrorists in Syria. The competing Saudi/Qatari Oil/Gas pipeline lost out to the Iran/Iraq/Syria Oil/Gas pipeline (PRIMARY reason for the Syrian War BTW). Therefore, the Talmudic crybabies/history revisionists are trying to go back to the dead Yinon Plan by attempting to use and eventually throw the Kurds under the bus through another regional brushfire. The Kurds will be treated like the Hmong tribes of Vietnam by the USSA/Israel.

    http://www.awdnews.com/index/zalmay-khalilzad-aipac-israel-lobby-insist-kurdistan-independence/

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article197968.html

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article198018.html

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article198025.html

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article198028.html

    http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/09/21/535936/Iraq-Kurdish-independence-referendum

    http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Netanyahu-I-support-Kurdish-independence-360958

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  60. Sloopyjoe says:

    More REAL TIME info regarding Mossad/CIA Kurdistan independence movement

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article197997.html

    https://iq.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/erbil/ Operational Field HQ?

    I don’t know about all of you, but if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then….

    Where ever the Talmudic Terrorists go, the cancer grows.

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  61. “There are a couple of problems here. First, objectively, the Russian contingent in Syria is a tiny one if compared to the immense power of CENTCOM, NATO and the ever-present Israelis. Not only that, but in any US-Russian confrontation, Russia as a country is objectively the weaker side by any measure except a full-out nuclear exchange.”

    Not sure about that but Sacker most probably meant Russia being objectively weaker in current theater of operations namely ME.
    In Eastern Europe by any objective mean USA is a weaker side.
    However, Russia did not shot all those missiles from various locations and angles and from various means of delivery and platforms just to hurt ISIS but to send not so subtle message to the “partners”. All of USA SETCOM bases are within Russian reach of those missiles.
    USA to start any serious confrontation has to move forces via long distances across seas. Anybody thinks Russia would have allowed it?
    As it was pointed by Andrei Russia also has got those Air Borne divisions which can be deployed quite swiftly. In any case. USA has no clue who they are dealing with.
    Obviously everybody’s desire is to avoid this, but Russia is not offending side here and there is always that last one straw that breaks proverbial camel’s back.

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  62. Schmid says:
    @Johnny Rico
    That's fine. I agree with a bunch of what you say.

    But at least a few openminded and skeptical people here will read that Newsweek article and compare it carefully to the Russian pieces, do more research, and make their own judgements.

    The world will not be worse off for the exercise.

    I'm going to spend my day reading Japanese history and then in the company of some of my favorite American women.

    Cheers

    Thank you for your reply. I agree. Especially for “will read that Newsweek article and compare it carefully to the Russian pieces, do more research, and make their own judgements.” Just to mention, before I write my above reply, I have read your link, the Newsweek article. I find it very important to read contradictory texts and to proceed as you say: making own judgement.

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  63. @Thirdeye
    So what would the motive of the Russian General Staff to fabricate be?

    Long and very consistent USA behavior of doing just that plus most probably intelligence. Unlike Americans Russians do not make unfounded accusations.

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  64. padre says:
    @Johnny Rico

    Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.
     
    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    You are in such frame of mind that I don’t think any evidence would satisfy you!Anyway, this i not a message to you or the general public in the west,because everything the Russian say is “fake news”, but to those, who know exactly, what they are talking about!

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  65. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points
     
    Forgot to mention the 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders.

    So cute. I see, unless it is victorious Russian Imperial forces in Manchuria or WWI everything else is up for irony attack.
    Actually I had to google those 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders to find what are those. Looks like some video games.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory's nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    This is in approximately the same category of nonsense. If you and The Saker want to promote the most ridiculous, unhinged Russian propaganda, then be my guest, but ultimately the only thing you're doing undermining is Russia itself while making yourself a laughing stock.

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid also assign this to the BS category, so I might also want to take it up with them: https://vk.com/wall347260249_187338
    , @Kiza
    I did not bother searching for what rubbish the mind of some deranged Jewish propagandist is pregnant with.
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  66. if the only means by which you equal, or better, your opponent is nuclear arms then those are what you use.

    it might be time to test u.s. resolve by targeting israel. russia should make it known that further u.s. coordinated attacks on sdf troops, positions, or russian affiliates will result in a coordinated nuclear attack on israel.

    that pronouncement would be sure to rustle some jimmies.

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  67. Schmid says:
    @GreenEyedJinn
    That al-Nusra attacked Idlib is likely. It's what they do. To say that it was orchestrated in any way by the US is not. We don't coordinate or push any ops with al-Nusra. The current al-Nusra is a splinter of ISIS. The US is in the business of killing ISIS, not supporting them. I'm glad the Russians are having success in killing al-Nusra, too.
    Note in the original TASS article there is zero mention of any US-Russian interaction. http://tass.com/defense/966624

    “The US is in the business of killing ISIS, not supporting them.”

    This is US-Propaganda. The US “war on terror” is a fake. The contrary is true: The US uses terrorists to fulfill their goals. ISIS and other Islamist groups are nothing else than sort of mercenary army for the US and their allies.

    Some considerations leading to this conclusion:

    1.Until Russia came to help Assad, ISIS and the other Islamist gets more and more power and would have overthrow Assad. Despite the official claimed “war on terror” of the US.

    2. See operation Timber Sycamore

    3. Why could ISIS get so much weapons the US have stored in Iraq for the Iraq Army? Couldn’t they prevent this?

    4 Why didn’t the US bombarding the oil convoy of the ISIS to Turkey (it was the Russian who begin with this)?http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3324789/Russia-hits-ISIS-hurts-Raids-target-oil-trucks-Syria.html

    5 Why the US didn’t do anything against Saudi-Arabia (no sanctions!) when it’s clear, that the terrorists of 9/11 has connections to Saudi-Arabia https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/saudi-arabia-911-victims-lawsuit-prior-knowledge-world-trade-center-terror-attack-twin-towers-a7644016.html, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/congress-set-release-info-detailing-saudi-arabia-9-11-ties-article-1.2713092 and others)?

    6. The founder of ISIS where Iraqi Generals, trained from the US in the Irak-Iran war. The decision of these Generals to create ISIS was made in US-camp “Camp Bucca” where they was captive. This decision was known by red-cross workers who worked in this camp. So this decision must have be known from the US! They let it happen. And this story is supported by official documents of the secret agency DIA and what the ex-DIA-Chief Gen. Michael Flynn told https://levantreport.com/2015/08/06/former-dia-chief-michael-flynn-says-rise-of-islamic-state-was-a-willful-decision-and-defends-accuracy-of-2012-memo/ and http://www.judicialwatch.org/document-archive/jw-v-dod-and-state-14-812-dod-release-2015-04-10/

    7. See https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-dirty-war-on-syria/5491859

    and so on. The list is very long.

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  68. The Scalpel says: • Website

    I think your friend’s prediction that we (i.e. Everyone he was communicating with at the time) will all be dead will be 100% accurate unless the human lifespan makes a significant advance.

    Or as I like to say, “The end of the world will happen in your lifetime – right at the end of it.”

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  69. @Johnny Rico
    Wait. Newsweek? Is that what I linked to?

    Sorry. Yeah. I didn't realize it wasn't on the the approved list of sources. Forgive me.

    People see what they believe. Not the other way around. History is unpredictable.

    I think his point is that mainstream sources like Newsweek (or CNN etc.) are simply mouthpieces for the US government and not even remotely objective or useful sources of information (little better than Pravda in the old USSR). And he’s entirely right.

    It should be kept in mind, the Russians are in Syria at the request of the legitimate government of Syria, whereas the US-supported Jihadists are neither organic nor supported by any significant portion of the Syrian population.

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    I agree almost entirely.

    I haven't looked to CNN for information since the 1st Gulf War - when there was little else. I also read the New York Times cover-to-cover daily back then.

    I range from skeptical to contemptuous of what is produced by the MSM, as I think most regular readers of UNZ are. That's a big reason why we are here.

    I only linked to the Newsweek article because it came near the top of a Google search that otherwise showed only Saker-approved news sources.

    The information provided in the Newsweek article (which is not included in the Saker sources) is highly important because it (unlike Saker's opinion-piece) allows the uninitiated (of which I am not) to start painting a picture of the forest through the trees.

    My guess (and I repeat, guess) is that a high percentage of those who reacted negatively to the posting of that link, either in the comments or privately, did not actually read the article. And if they are reading this will now scramble back to read it in the interest of heaping more abuse on me.

    Either way, I win. I just get closer to the truth of what is actually happening in Syria.
    Which, of course, is the only reason I'm here.
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  70. @GreenEyedJinn
    That al-Nusra attacked Idlib is likely. It's what they do. To say that it was orchestrated in any way by the US is not. We don't coordinate or push any ops with al-Nusra. The current al-Nusra is a splinter of ISIS. The US is in the business of killing ISIS, not supporting them. I'm glad the Russians are having success in killing al-Nusra, too.
    Note in the original TASS article there is zero mention of any US-Russian interaction. http://tass.com/defense/966624

    ISIS is a CIA-Mossad mercenary army. How much they freelance is perhaps an open question, but whether they are completely untethered is not.

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  71. trutherator says: • Website
    @Johnny Rico

    Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.
     
    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    The evidence is in the explanation of why the Russians would not make such a denunciation lightly. And the Deep State candidate, Jezebel herself, did publicly make those threats to shoot down Russian aircraft in Syria.

    Plus smooth talking Obama said he wanted to use lots more special forces around the world as opposed to invading everywhere. Ha. Already based in more than 100 countries. Where else can they invade?

    Plus there i)h have) a the fact that we now know that

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  72. Seamus Padraig says:
    September 23, 2017 at 2:10 am GMT

    Newsweek? Are you joking? What next? Reader’s Digest?

    Someone is heavily pushing Newsweek. First popped up in the past 2 months for me at work. Same question was asked: “Newsweek?” Now I see their links everywhere.

    “Sorry. Yeah. I didn’t realize it wasn’t on the the approved list of sources. Forgive me.”

    ^^ the other list, Johnny .. ;)

    By the by, reading Saker is akin to reading Newsweek. Thin, intellectually low grade, propaganda.

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  73. trutherator says: • Website
    @hunor
    " evidence not required"

    the Russians are not in a position to make an outlandish accusation ,without proof.

    they have intercepted communications between American military personals and moderate jihadist

    / AL Nustra / both in the planning , and executing of the operation. the Russians presented the evidence to they

    American "partners " The American official response was that the USA considers the Al Nustra front

    a terrorist organization

    The evidence is in the explanation of why the Russians would not make such a denunciation lightly. And the Deep State candidate, Jezebel herself, did publicly make those threats to shoot down Russian aircraft in Syria.

    Plus smooth talking Obama said he wanted to use lots more special forces around the world as opposed to invading everywhere. Ha. Already based in more than 100 countries. Where else can they invade?

    Plus there i)h have) a the fact that we now know that

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  74. trutherator says: • Website
    @Avery
    Russia Insider claims this story was their 'scoop'.

    Then they published another article:
    [Sources Confirm Our Scoop - a Huge Russian Victory Over ‘US Secret Services’ in Syria]
    {A lot of people didn't believe us, or the Russian Defense Ministry. Turns out we were right.}

    RI says confirmation comes from.....[Almasdar News, which is generally reliable, covered it:]

    So I went to the Almasdar link in the RI article.

    Almasdar article lists some numbers.
    There are also a few pics:
    One pic of a pickup bed full of dead bodies, no more than dozen or so.
    Three pics of one dead guy each.
    No pics of hundreds of dead terrorists.

    One picture of a heavy tank and one picture of light tank or tracked APC.
    So its pretty hard to tell what the real numbers are.
    I am sure terrorists got hit, but hard to tell if the numbers quoted in the article are real.

    Details. Like Vietnam body counts.

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  75. What this tells us is that Putin is now hopelessly bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. “Worse” than that, from Putin’s point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It’s also clear that Putin is scared silly of going one on one with US forces. So his generals growl and threaten, as they’ve done in both Syria and Ukraine for several years now, but they don’t dare hit back. Despite all the hype about WWII, the Russian military haven’t won a war without European allies since 1878 and that was against a decaying Turkish Empire. Their technology is antiquated, their officers have a long-standing reputation for incompetence and why would young Russians fight for the gang of oligarchs/gangster bosses that have robbed them blind for over 25 years? Indeed, it was to get around those difficulties that Putin and his American allies tried to install a stooge in the White House.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    You probably meant USA has never won a war without allies? Track record of lone fighting is pretty dismal for self proclaimed super pooper duper power. Note, Soviet army crashed Nazi Germany before allies ever set a foot in Europe. Manchurian operation was another example showcasing USA land forces poor fighting capabilities vis a via Soviet army. You guys got very lucky that never met Soviet military. Now you are pushing your luck too far. The only thing I agree with you is that those good patriotic guys now instead of serving people are carrying hot potatoes for despisable Russian elite. Elites are despisable everywhere now.
    , @Beefcake the Mighty
    And who is the last opponent the Americans have fought on equal terms since the Korean War, when the Chinese fought them to a standstill? (And remember, the only time they faced German forces at full strength, in the Battle of the Bulge, they were nearly routed.)
    , @WJ
    Trump colluded with Putin to win the election conspiracist = Obama born in Kenya conspiracist. Just as nuts. Just as insane. Just as immune to logic and reasoning and common sense as the other.

    The leftist intelligentsia know this. They know it is a fraud but they cynically use this nonsense to whip up the mouth breathing low IQ Democrat party masses all across the urban wastelands of the USA and on the college campuses and in the high school educated minds of most Hollywood celebrities.

    , @peterAUS
    Well, if we change a couple of words and get:

    What this tells us is that Putin is now bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. “Worse” than that, from Putin’s point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It’s also clear that Putin can't follow US in escalation path in Syria.
     
    Having said all that, if I were Neocon, I wouldn't be so optimistic.

    Regime in Moscow, IMHO, is well balanced in their strategic approach. They are weaker party but they know what to do, how to do it and why. Just well balanced decision making and execution. Exactly what's expected from a nuclear power capable of destroying the world.

    US, at the other hand, doesn't look, or feel, well balanced.
    Now...if that isn't The Problem I don't know what it is.

    Of course US will keep pushing, provoking etc and of course the regime in Moscow will keep absorbing, retreating, accommodating.

    What happens if push is too hard and retreat/accommodating isn't possible as fast as US wants?

    And, as Trump stated, the decision making is left to Generals?

    The essence of modern Western society is tight control of military.
    Top brass must not be in charge of policy; it's really that simple. Wrong minds.

    So, although, for Neocons, pushing Russia back....and back....can feel good, what if they overplay their hand? Get overconfident? And then the regime in Moscow doesn't budge because it simply can't should it want to survive?
    And then, in THAT moment, US President gets his thinking from Generals?

    The same president who launched all those missiles for....what?
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  76. @Serge Krieger
    So cute. I see, unless it is victorious Russian Imperial forces in Manchuria or WWI everything else is up for irony attack.
    Actually I had to google those 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders to find what are those. Looks like some video games.

    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory’s nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    This is in approximately the same category of nonsense. If you and The Saker want to promote the most ridiculous, unhinged Russian propaganda, then be my guest, but ultimately the only thing you’re doing undermining is Russia itself while making yourself a laughing stock.

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid also assign this to the BS category, so I might also want to take it up with them: https://vk.com/wall347260249_187338

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kiza
    Can we just say that by now most experienced commenters know who you are and who you work for. This is why your mostly empty writing gets a pass. I tried once to read and I got to about the fourth paragraph of the waffle.

    I suggest that you go to Syria and count the body parts and the weapons destroyed to verify YOUR information about what happened during the offensive of the US moderate terrorist.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid
     
    LOL. Truly amusing. I abstain from giving assessment to numbers, I simply do not know, but using Girkin and Smeyan as authorities? Anatoly, if you want, eventually, to completely marginalize yourself to some fringes of Russian "intellectual" life--you sure as hell doing everything you can to get there.

    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory’s nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.
     
    And Close Air Support, desert terrain, superb targeting and air mobility plus about other dozen or so tactical and operational factors in Syria are related to Donbass and VSU fairy tales exactly how?
    , @Sergey Krieger
    The fact of the victory is there. it has been pretty known case that since ancient times occasionally numbers of killed enemies were overestimated or how to put it, increased. But as Alexander Suvorov told in similar case: "Пиши поболе, чего их, супостатов, жалеть!". Really, I do not get your irony.
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  77. @Michael Kenny
    What this tells us is that Putin is now hopelessly bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. "Worse" than that, from Putin's point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It's also clear that Putin is scared silly of going one on one with US forces. So his generals growl and threaten, as they've done in both Syria and Ukraine for several years now, but they don't dare hit back. Despite all the hype about WWII, the Russian military haven't won a war without European allies since 1878 and that was against a decaying Turkish Empire. Their technology is antiquated, their officers have a long-standing reputation for incompetence and why would young Russians fight for the gang of oligarchs/gangster bosses that have robbed them blind for over 25 years? Indeed, it was to get around those difficulties that Putin and his American allies tried to install a stooge in the White House.

    You probably meant USA has never won a war without allies? Track record of lone fighting is pretty dismal for self proclaimed super pooper duper power. Note, Soviet army crashed Nazi Germany before allies ever set a foot in Europe. Manchurian operation was another example showcasing USA land forces poor fighting capabilities vis a via Soviet army. You guys got very lucky that never met Soviet military. Now you are pushing your luck too far. The only thing I agree with you is that those good patriotic guys now instead of serving people are carrying hot potatoes for despisable Russian elite. Elites are despisable everywhere now.

    Read More
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  78. @Michael Kenny
    What this tells us is that Putin is now hopelessly bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. "Worse" than that, from Putin's point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It's also clear that Putin is scared silly of going one on one with US forces. So his generals growl and threaten, as they've done in both Syria and Ukraine for several years now, but they don't dare hit back. Despite all the hype about WWII, the Russian military haven't won a war without European allies since 1878 and that was against a decaying Turkish Empire. Their technology is antiquated, their officers have a long-standing reputation for incompetence and why would young Russians fight for the gang of oligarchs/gangster bosses that have robbed them blind for over 25 years? Indeed, it was to get around those difficulties that Putin and his American allies tried to install a stooge in the White House.

    And who is the last opponent the Americans have fought on equal terms since the Korean War, when the Chinese fought them to a standstill? (And remember, the only time they faced German forces at full strength, in the Battle of the Bulge, they were nearly routed.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    in the Battle of the Bulge, they were nearly routed.)
     
    Give credit to Hodges' 1st Army, especially Gerow's V Corps, especially 2nd and 99th Divisions and, of course Monty and Ike who, after painful negotiations with Bradley, gave Monty command of US 1st and 9th Armies. Bulge was the peak of US Army performance, especially on the Northern Shoulder. If not for them, yes, there could have been a rout.
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  79. WJ says:
    @Michael Kenny
    What this tells us is that Putin is now hopelessly bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. "Worse" than that, from Putin's point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It's also clear that Putin is scared silly of going one on one with US forces. So his generals growl and threaten, as they've done in both Syria and Ukraine for several years now, but they don't dare hit back. Despite all the hype about WWII, the Russian military haven't won a war without European allies since 1878 and that was against a decaying Turkish Empire. Their technology is antiquated, their officers have a long-standing reputation for incompetence and why would young Russians fight for the gang of oligarchs/gangster bosses that have robbed them blind for over 25 years? Indeed, it was to get around those difficulties that Putin and his American allies tried to install a stooge in the White House.

    Trump colluded with Putin to win the election conspiracist = Obama born in Kenya conspiracist. Just as nuts. Just as insane. Just as immune to logic and reasoning and common sense as the other.

    The leftist intelligentsia know this. They know it is a fraud but they cynically use this nonsense to whip up the mouth breathing low IQ Democrat party masses all across the urban wastelands of the USA and on the college campuses and in the high school educated minds of most Hollywood celebrities.

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  80. Trump is the New Deep State and a far better warmonger than ever Hillary would have been.

    Syria is a side-show to keep the Russkies wrong-footed.

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  81. Kiza says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory's nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    This is in approximately the same category of nonsense. If you and The Saker want to promote the most ridiculous, unhinged Russian propaganda, then be my guest, but ultimately the only thing you're doing undermining is Russia itself while making yourself a laughing stock.

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid also assign this to the BS category, so I might also want to take it up with them: https://vk.com/wall347260249_187338

    Can we just say that by now most experienced commenters know who you are and who you work for. This is why your mostly empty writing gets a pass. I tried once to read and I got to about the fourth paragraph of the waffle.

    I suggest that you go to Syria and count the body parts and the weapons destroyed to verify YOUR information about what happened during the offensive of the US moderate terrorist.

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  82. Kiza says:
    @Serge Krieger
    So cute. I see, unless it is victorious Russian Imperial forces in Manchuria or WWI everything else is up for irony attack.
    Actually I had to google those 87 Assaultrons and the 14 Combine Striders to find what are those. Looks like some video games.

    I did not bother searching for what rubbish the mind of some deranged Jewish propagandist is pregnant with.

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  83. @Anatoly Karlin
    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory's nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    This is in approximately the same category of nonsense. If you and The Saker want to promote the most ridiculous, unhinged Russian propaganda, then be my guest, but ultimately the only thing you're doing undermining is Russia itself while making yourself a laughing stock.

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid also assign this to the BS category, so I might also want to take it up with them: https://vk.com/wall347260249_187338

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid

    LOL. Truly amusing. I abstain from giving assessment to numbers, I simply do not know, but using Girkin and Smeyan as authorities? Anatoly, if you want, eventually, to completely marginalize yourself to some fringes of Russian “intellectual” life–you sure as hell doing everything you can to get there.

    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory’s nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    And Close Air Support, desert terrain, superb targeting and air mobility plus about other dozen or so tactical and operational factors in Syria are related to Donbass and VSU fairy tales exactly how?

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    • Replies: @Avery
    { I simply do not know, }

    True:other than a select few in positions to know in SAA and RF leadership/military , nobody really knows. Least of all UNZ posters.

    However: would it not be logical for the RF military to send some drones to grab lots of pics of dead/charred bodies and destroyed armor? RF military has previously released drone footage of the destruction they have wrought, so they certainly have the capability.

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters f SAA and RF and highly demoralizing for the supporters of cannibals if pics of hundreds of charred terrorist scum and destroyed hardware were publicized.
    , @Anatoly Karlin
    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.
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  84. @Kiza
    Ah, the floating, back-stroke peddaling Hasbara turd is asking for references. Why do not you smelly turd give us links to your CIA and Mossad references?

    I was raised in Europe and Saudi Arabia. My parents are both American. My father is of Protestant German descent. My mother is Irish and Italian. I have lived in Boston for 30 years.

    I was baptized Greek Orthodox and later raised Catholic. I am a fan of Philip Giraldi. I am not a supporter of the Israeli state or Saudi Arabia for that matter.

    Those are some things about me.

    You are mentally ill. Don’t bother responding, your observation and analysis are faulty.

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  85. @Beefcake the Mighty
    And who is the last opponent the Americans have fought on equal terms since the Korean War, when the Chinese fought them to a standstill? (And remember, the only time they faced German forces at full strength, in the Battle of the Bulge, they were nearly routed.)

    in the Battle of the Bulge, they were nearly routed.)

    Give credit to Hodges’ 1st Army, especially Gerow’s V Corps, especially 2nd and 99th Divisions and, of course Monty and Ike who, after painful negotiations with Bradley, gave Monty command of US 1st and 9th Armies. Bulge was the peak of US Army performance, especially on the Northern Shoulder. If not for them, yes, there could have been a rout.

    Read More
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  86. peterAUS says:
    @Michael Kenny
    What this tells us is that Putin is now hopelessly bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. "Worse" than that, from Putin's point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It's also clear that Putin is scared silly of going one on one with US forces. So his generals growl and threaten, as they've done in both Syria and Ukraine for several years now, but they don't dare hit back. Despite all the hype about WWII, the Russian military haven't won a war without European allies since 1878 and that was against a decaying Turkish Empire. Their technology is antiquated, their officers have a long-standing reputation for incompetence and why would young Russians fight for the gang of oligarchs/gangster bosses that have robbed them blind for over 25 years? Indeed, it was to get around those difficulties that Putin and his American allies tried to install a stooge in the White House.

    Well, if we change a couple of words and get:

    What this tells us is that Putin is now bogged down in Syria. Having committed himself to Assad, he has to prop him up for all time and against all comers. “Worse” than that, from Putin’s point of view, the US has the initiative. It can lower the boom on him anytime it wants just by re-igniting the war. All Putin can do is react to what the US does.It’s also clear that Putin can’t follow US in escalation path in Syria.

    Having said all that, if I were Neocon, I wouldn’t be so optimistic.

    Regime in Moscow, IMHO, is well balanced in their strategic approach. They are weaker party but they know what to do, how to do it and why. Just well balanced decision making and execution. Exactly what’s expected from a nuclear power capable of destroying the world.

    US, at the other hand, doesn’t look, or feel, well balanced.
    Now…if that isn’t The Problem I don’t know what it is.

    Of course US will keep pushing, provoking etc and of course the regime in Moscow will keep absorbing, retreating, accommodating.

    What happens if push is too hard and retreat/accommodating isn’t possible as fast as US wants?

    And, as Trump stated, the decision making is left to Generals?

    The essence of modern Western society is tight control of military.
    Top brass must not be in charge of policy; it’s really that simple. Wrong minds.

    So, although, for Neocons, pushing Russia back….and back….can feel good, what if they overplay their hand? Get overconfident? And then the regime in Moscow doesn’t budge because it simply can’t should it want to survive?
    And then, in THAT moment, US President gets his thinking from Generals?

    The same president who launched all those missiles for….what?

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  87. Avery says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid
     
    LOL. Truly amusing. I abstain from giving assessment to numbers, I simply do not know, but using Girkin and Smeyan as authorities? Anatoly, if you want, eventually, to completely marginalize yourself to some fringes of Russian "intellectual" life--you sure as hell doing everything you can to get there.

    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory’s nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.
     
    And Close Air Support, desert terrain, superb targeting and air mobility plus about other dozen or so tactical and operational factors in Syria are related to Donbass and VSU fairy tales exactly how?

    { I simply do not know, }

    True:other than a select few in positions to know in SAA and RF leadership/military , nobody really knows. Least of all UNZ posters.

    However: would it not be logical for the RF military to send some drones to grab lots of pics of dead/charred bodies and destroyed armor? RF military has previously released drone footage of the destruction they have wrought, so they certainly have the capability.

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters f SAA and RF and highly demoralizing for the supporters of cannibals if pics of hundreds of charred terrorist scum and destroyed hardware were publicized.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Here is how things are scored. In this video alone at lest 50 (possibly more) of terrorists are fried after two hits.

    https://youtu.be/3P6iwct45-I

    If to consider that Velikii Novgorod also launched 5 "sausages" at ISIS targets and Kalibrs are never used on low-value targets, I would assume some serious concentrations of terrorists were also hit. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the number is, indeed, in hundreds. As per showing? Too early anyway. What was already shown with SSO's work gives some idea of intensity. So, eventually, I thinks, once all necessary info will be "white-outed" we may see a more full picture. In the same time, once one considers the stand of the 6th Company in Chechnya where by different estimates Khattab lost 400 to 700 jihadists, well--there you go. In fact, in Syria killing terrorist armor is a pretty routine thing.
    , @utu
    it would be a tremendous boost

    Yes, it would but Russia's propaganda machine is not up the task for some reasons. RT and Sputnik are very timid and often very inept and never manage to take over the initiative in the media cycle and thus always remain in the position of just being reactive to western MSM allegations, chutzpah and fake news.
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  88. I’ve been puzzling over this business for about a year now. Vladimir Putin appears to be a very steady and masterful strategic thinker, and in the tradition of Russian Chess Masters, he must be thinking well ahead and planning for this situation. In particular, he is absolutely committed, as any rational person would be, to avoiding any nuclear exchange with the United States.

    Putin intends to restore Syrian authority to the Assad government. To achieve that end he will continue to confront the proxy forces the United States has been employing in its regime-change effort in Syria. The combined Syrian/Russian forces have already defeated Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in the West, confining them to Idlib province where they await a final disposition, political or military. Now they are mopping up ISIS in the east, finishing the effort to reassert control over all of Syria. It is at this stage, as Saker observes, that the moment of greatest danger arrives.

    It is to be assumed that the Americans, committed to achieving their goal of partition, if not destruction, of Syria will make every effort to stand their ground. Hubris, arrogance, overconfidence, and the safety of operating thousands of miles away from the front lines, not to mention the cultural belligerence of generals, will make the commanders of Centcom insufficiently responsive — uninterested, … indifferent even — to the danger of unswerving belligerence. The civilian leadership may understand the necessity of stepping back from the brink, but generals, never.

    So how can Putin handle it? I see three possibilities:

    (1) the Russians and Syrians come nose-to-nose with the Kurds and stop. Then they negotiate with the Kurds an “autonomy” arrangement. The US and the Israelis won’t like that, but the Kurds aren’t stupid, they’ve been betrayed/abandoned by the United States before and will be the ones to suffer in a military confrontation, so they see clearly the advantage of a political solution, notwithstanding any US and Israeli objection.

    (2) The Russians and Syrians move forward, the Kurds discreetly move back slightly, and call in American Air Support. The Americans send in the Air Force, whereupon the Russians put their nuclear strategic forces on highest alert, and light up the American planes with S400 radars. If the Americans don’t turn back at that point, the Russians deploy their own aircraft with electronic countermeasures — possibly drones with EW capability — to non-lethally neutralize the American Air Support. (Which is to say the Russians establish a no-fly zone over Eastern Syria.) With nuclear war a single mistake away the American political leadership may at this point choose to pull back. If they don’t…….

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel. The United States will not have been struck, so the immediate, compulsory, and irrevocable retaliatory response will not be triggered. The source of the problem: America’s subversion by Zionist interests — by Israel;
    it’s Zionist directed foreign policy of global belligerence with it’s attendant bankrupting military expenditures, will have been mooted by “ending” Israel. At that point the world will have changed, and the underlying rationale for American foreign policy — The Wolfowitz Doctrine: the American jackboot on the world’s throat ***FOREVER*** — will have been neutralized. International policy will be recalibrated without the Zionist poison. The United States will have been freed from Israeli domination. And nuclear war will have been averted.

    I’m an American and a Jew. For 5,000 years, Jewish overreach has been the hallmark of Jewish behavior. Looking at it dispassionately one might conclude that Jewish ambition over the millennia — consistent with the ambition of so many other “nations” — has been either hegemonic domination or suicide-by-goy. You be the judge, slow learners or just plain insane? And now they’re at it again.

    We shall see.

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    • Replies: @poop
    For whatever its worth, and its not much as I am just some dupe posting on an internet comments section, your analysis of the Syria situation is as brilliant and accurate as I have seen. I might add a potential Option 4:

    The Turks, with their army massed on the Syrian border under the guise of implementing the "de-escalation zones" use the Kurdish Independence vote in northern Iraq as causus belli to move into Northern Syria and annihilate US-backed Kurdish forces. The Turks seem to have a non-public alliance with Russia at this point, and being a member of NATO (with US troops and bases present in its own territory) makes US/Israeli escalation with Turkey difficult to impossible and escalation with Russia moot.

    In other words, I see Turkey as a pivotal wild card in the resolution of this mess, and I suspect they are on Russia's side.

    We shall see, indeed. God help us.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.
     
    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM
     
    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101--more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM's Forward Command. Here it is:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg/1920px-Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second--make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn't hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia's strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8--in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.
    , @Kiza
    Jeff, very good analysis thank you.
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  89. skrik says:

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters

    Do you consider images of “the highway of death” to have been good PR? rgds

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {Do you consider images of “the highway of death” to have been good PR? rgds}

    “the highway of death”: No, I don't.

    You are either completely clueless or trying to bait me.

    "Highway of death":

    The thoroughly defeated Iraqi army was retreating towards Iraq.
    Despite the Western lies, they committed no atrocities against civilians in Kuwait.
    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.

    Syria:

    ISIS and all other assorted terrorists are foreign sponsored, foreign financed, foreign armed invaders of Syrian Arab Republic. They have been massacring Syrian civilians for years.
    Their invasion has cost about 500,000 Syrian lives: military and civilians.
    They are head choppers. Cannibals. SAA soldiers who are unlucky enough to fall prisoner are tortured to death, or have their throats cut while alive.

    As such, the homeowners of Syria have the God given right to chop the filth to pieces and burn the chunks to crisp: no mercy.

    So yes: it will be tremendous psychological boost to those of us who care about Syria to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.

    Thanks for asking.
    Best regards.
    Avery.

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  90. @Avery
    { I simply do not know, }

    True:other than a select few in positions to know in SAA and RF leadership/military , nobody really knows. Least of all UNZ posters.

    However: would it not be logical for the RF military to send some drones to grab lots of pics of dead/charred bodies and destroyed armor? RF military has previously released drone footage of the destruction they have wrought, so they certainly have the capability.

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters f SAA and RF and highly demoralizing for the supporters of cannibals if pics of hundreds of charred terrorist scum and destroyed hardware were publicized.

    Here is how things are scored. In this video alone at lest 50 (possibly more) of terrorists are fried after two hits.

    If to consider that Velikii Novgorod also launched 5 “sausages” at ISIS targets and Kalibrs are never used on low-value targets, I would assume some serious concentrations of terrorists were also hit. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if the number is, indeed, in hundreds. As per showing? Too early anyway. What was already shown with SSO’s work gives some idea of intensity. So, eventually, I thinks, once all necessary info will be “white-outed” we may see a more full picture. In the same time, once one considers the stand of the 6th Company in Chechnya where by different estimates Khattab lost 400 to 700 jihadists, well–there you go. In fact, in Syria killing terrorist armor is a pretty routine thing.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    As always - thanks for the technical analysis on these Russian military matters.

    Looking forward to your next article.

    Peace.

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  91. @Dr. Charles
    This is a very, very dangerous situation. And it is by no means clear who will blink first. All the contemptuous things that may be said about Trump only add to the danger. Yes, he's both a bully and a coward (as most bullies are). That's why he fired Bannon (who was going to get him out of Syria) and then put the Junta (of Mattis, McMaster and Kelly) over him--to "make a man out of him." That's why Trump's Dad sent him to Military School. So Trump will follow orders as he did back then. The military discipline didn't stick. But his military school years were the best he ever felt about himself. That's why he put the Junta over him now. And the Junta is out to be great generals all and win where others have failed. They'll be the Grants and Shermans of the 21st century. They'll win the Syrian War, the Afghan War, and the Korean War. (Just follow McArthur's nuclear plan!) Defeat Iran too-- and send Russia running back to its borders. (Obama and HRC both privately pegged Putin as an appeaser a la letting the Kiev coup go through and just defending Crimea.) In Syria, Plan B was always to create a separate state of Kurdistan in Eastern Syria; build scores of US bases there; and cut off Hezbollah from Iran. Then let Israel wipe out Hezbollah (Good luck with that one!) and extend Israel's borders to the Litani River, which would then be diverted South to irrigate Israeli lands. Then Israel and the US would catch and destroy Assad in a pincer movement. And it's assumed Putin will withdraw rather than fight. He's already said on the record that Russia doesn't need Syria to survive. And if that causes the hardliners to topple him, the US will be ready with a First Strike option by then. I believe "Mad Dog" Mattis and McMaster think they can pull it off. They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    They have the blood of General Custer in them!

    yeah we both know what became of Custer, don’t we?

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  92. @Beefcake the Mighty
    I think his point is that mainstream sources like Newsweek (or CNN etc.) are simply mouthpieces for the US government and not even remotely objective or useful sources of information (little better than Pravda in the old USSR). And he's entirely right.

    It should be kept in mind, the Russians are in Syria at the request of the legitimate government of Syria, whereas the US-supported Jihadists are neither organic nor supported by any significant portion of the Syrian population.

    I agree almost entirely.

    I haven’t looked to CNN for information since the 1st Gulf War – when there was little else. I also read the New York Times cover-to-cover daily back then.

    I range from skeptical to contemptuous of what is produced by the MSM, as I think most regular readers of UNZ are. That’s a big reason why we are here.

    I only linked to the Newsweek article because it came near the top of a Google search that otherwise showed only Saker-approved news sources.

    The information provided in the Newsweek article (which is not included in the Saker sources) is highly important because it (unlike Saker’s opinion-piece) allows the uninitiated (of which I am not) to start painting a picture of the forest through the trees.

    My guess (and I repeat, guess) is that a high percentage of those who reacted negatively to the posting of that link, either in the comments or privately, did not actually read the article. And if they are reading this will now scramble back to read it in the interest of heaping more abuse on me.

    Either way, I win. I just get closer to the truth of what is actually happening in Syria.
    Which, of course, is the only reason I’m here.

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  93. utu says:
    @Avery
    { I simply do not know, }

    True:other than a select few in positions to know in SAA and RF leadership/military , nobody really knows. Least of all UNZ posters.

    However: would it not be logical for the RF military to send some drones to grab lots of pics of dead/charred bodies and destroyed armor? RF military has previously released drone footage of the destruction they have wrought, so they certainly have the capability.

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters f SAA and RF and highly demoralizing for the supporters of cannibals if pics of hundreds of charred terrorist scum and destroyed hardware were publicized.

    it would be a tremendous boost

    Yes, it would but Russia’s propaganda machine is not up the task for some reasons. RT and Sputnik are very timid and often very inept and never manage to take over the initiative in the media cycle and thus always remain in the position of just being reactive to western MSM allegations, chutzpah and fake news.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erebus
    Russian MoD released some sat photos, claiming to show that US SF, IS & SDF are coordinating.


    ISIS positions north of Deir Ezzor manned by US Special Forces. Photos prove America is ISIS
     
    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/09/24/blockbuster-russian-satellite-proof-america-is-isiss/
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  94. @Andrei Martyanov

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid
     
    LOL. Truly amusing. I abstain from giving assessment to numbers, I simply do not know, but using Girkin and Smeyan as authorities? Anatoly, if you want, eventually, to completely marginalize yourself to some fringes of Russian "intellectual" life--you sure as hell doing everything you can to get there.

    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory’s nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.
     
    And Close Air Support, desert terrain, superb targeting and air mobility plus about other dozen or so tactical and operational factors in Syria are related to Donbass and VSU fairy tales exactly how?

    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Excellent point. It was the first red flag with this piece.

    It is not implausible that 850 were killed along with the large amount of destroyed equipment - but it doesn't fit the pattern.

    Why would the Russians suddenly pull out all the stops now? This suggests they have been holding back.

    No, more likely, this "count" is the result of operations over more than 24 hours. To suggest that the Russian media and Syrian government are the sole sources of truth, "real" news, and goodwill is cute.

    Bonus points for the Fallout references which apparently nobody got the first time.
    Including me, I had to look it up - at least I think it is Fallout. I've only played Call of Duty and Battlefield. :)

    , @Simpleguest
    I find it difficult to believe the Russian MOD's claims, which is kind of, for the lack of a better word, disappointing. They really don't need this kind of, what looks like, third rate propaganda.

    I think the "speak softly, but carry (and use) a big stick" approach worked brilliantly for the Russians so far.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.
     
    Anatoly, google Osipov-Lanchester Equations. then go on to Salvo Model--may help somewhat (I underscore that--somewhat, it still is not going to explain a lot), but no, it does need further explanations because the "math" you operate is basically a sham and has no relations with how operations are planned and executed. I will reiterate my point--Operations' Manuals and Guides (Оперативные Наставления и Руководства) are not for general public's view and in fact constitute one of the most guarded secrets of any serious nation. But then again, we have to only view Russian VKS operational tempo in those 48 hours to get an idea, this is not to speak of what Russian Navy did from Eastern Med. So, yes, sorry--not interested in opinions of Girkin, Smeyan or whoever else you rub your shoulders with--I used to communicate with professionals.
    , @hunor
    " the notion that almost 1000 jihadist could have been killed by Russian airstrikes,"

    the jihadist could have succeeded , but the Russians were prepared for them , not just the air force but also SOF Russian and Syrian units and Syrian infantry units were deployed. the Russians intercepted communications between the jihadist and they American/Israeli masters , of they plan.
    In any conflict information is the key. Do not feel sorry for the jihadist, they sold they soul to the devil, besides as of now they are about to pick the seventy two virgins coming to them. Who's side are you people anyway, good shell overcome evil . But who is evil ? People who defending they own country against manipulating foreign mercenaries , and jihadist are the good guys. No amount of clever argument of yours can change that. The evil who is messing around eight thousand mile away from home, with destruction in mind. Yes they have clever reasoning, as to why but so did Dhingis Khan, Attila the hun, Napoleon, Hitler. Face it if you can.
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  95. @Anatoly Karlin
    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

    Excellent point. It was the first red flag with this piece.

    It is not implausible that 850 were killed along with the large amount of destroyed equipment – but it doesn’t fit the pattern.

    Why would the Russians suddenly pull out all the stops now? This suggests they have been holding back.

    No, more likely, this “count” is the result of operations over more than 24 hours. To suggest that the Russian media and Syrian government are the sole sources of truth, “real” news, and goodwill is cute.

    Bonus points for the Fallout references which apparently nobody got the first time.
    Including me, I had to look it up – at least I think it is Fallout. I’ve only played Call of Duty and Battlefield. :)

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  96. poop says:
    @Jeff Davis
    I've been puzzling over this business for about a year now. Vladimir Putin appears to be a very steady and masterful strategic thinker, and in the tradition of Russian Chess Masters, he must be thinking well ahead and planning for this situation. In particular, he is absolutely committed, as any rational person would be, to avoiding any nuclear exchange with the United States.

    Putin intends to restore Syrian authority to the Assad government. To achieve that end he will continue to confront the proxy forces the United States has been employing in its regime-change effort in Syria. The combined Syrian/Russian forces have already defeated Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in the West, confining them to Idlib province where they await a final disposition, political or military. Now they are mopping up ISIS in the east, finishing the effort to reassert control over all of Syria. It is at this stage, as Saker observes, that the moment of greatest danger arrives.

    It is to be assumed that the Americans, committed to achieving their goal of partition, if not destruction, of Syria will make every effort to stand their ground. Hubris, arrogance, overconfidence, and the safety of operating thousands of miles away from the front lines, not to mention the cultural belligerence of generals, will make the commanders of Centcom insufficiently responsive -- uninterested, ... indifferent even -- to the danger of unswerving belligerence. The civilian leadership may understand the necessity of stepping back from the brink, but generals, never.

    So how can Putin handle it? I see three possibilities:

    (1) the Russians and Syrians come nose-to-nose with the Kurds and stop. Then they negotiate with the Kurds an "autonomy" arrangement. The US and the Israelis won't like that, but the Kurds aren't stupid, they've been betrayed/abandoned by the United States before and will be the ones to suffer in a military confrontation, so they see clearly the advantage of a political solution, notwithstanding any US and Israeli objection.

    (2) The Russians and Syrians move forward, the Kurds discreetly move back slightly, and call in American Air Support. The Americans send in the Air Force, whereupon the Russians put their nuclear strategic forces on highest alert, and light up the American planes with S400 radars. If the Americans don't turn back at that point, the Russians deploy their own aircraft with electronic countermeasures -- possibly drones with EW capability -- to non-lethally neutralize the American Air Support. (Which is to say the Russians establish a no-fly zone over Eastern Syria.) With nuclear war a single mistake away the American political leadership may at this point choose to pull back. If they don't.......

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on ... wait for it ... Israel. The United States will not have been struck, so the immediate, compulsory, and irrevocable retaliatory response will not be triggered. The source of the problem: America's subversion by Zionist interests -- by Israel;
    it's Zionist directed foreign policy of global belligerence with it's attendant bankrupting military expenditures, will have been mooted by "ending" Israel. At that point the world will have changed, and the underlying rationale for American foreign policy -- The Wolfowitz Doctrine: the American jackboot on the world's throat ***FOREVER*** -- will have been neutralized. International policy will be recalibrated without the Zionist poison. The United States will have been freed from Israeli domination. And nuclear war will have been averted.

    I'm an American and a Jew. For 5,000 years, Jewish overreach has been the hallmark of Jewish behavior. Looking at it dispassionately one might conclude that Jewish ambition over the millennia -- consistent with the ambition of so many other "nations" -- has been either hegemonic domination or suicide-by-goy. You be the judge, slow learners or just plain insane? And now they're at it again.

    We shall see.

    For whatever its worth, and its not much as I am just some dupe posting on an internet comments section, your analysis of the Syria situation is as brilliant and accurate as I have seen. I might add a potential Option 4:

    The Turks, with their army massed on the Syrian border under the guise of implementing the “de-escalation zones” use the Kurdish Independence vote in northern Iraq as causus belli to move into Northern Syria and annihilate US-backed Kurdish forces. The Turks seem to have a non-public alliance with Russia at this point, and being a member of NATO (with US troops and bases present in its own territory) makes US/Israeli escalation with Turkey difficult to impossible and escalation with Russia moot.

    In other words, I see Turkey as a pivotal wild card in the resolution of this mess, and I suspect they are on Russia’s side.

    We shall see, indeed. God help us.

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    • Replies: @Jeff Davis
    Exactly right, good catch, poopster. I thought about the Turkish factor yesterday, but forgot about it in composing my comment.

    Here's what I concluded. The Kurds, notwithstanding their employment by the US as their proxy anti-ISIS boots-on-the-ground, are caught between the Turks and the Syrian/Russian forces. The Turks present a substantially greater danger than Syria/Russia. In fact, the Syrians have no real beef with the Kurds, who were given the green light by Damascus early in the conflict, to take charge in their region. So I estimate that when the Syrians and Kurds meet up, they will quickly arrive at an accommodation. The Kurds will ally with the Syrian/Russian forces, and their combined forces will transit Kurdish-controlled territory and face off against the Turks, preventing any Turkish advance.

    That looks to me like pragmatism of the most obvious sort. The Americans, Israelis, and Turks all benefit from, and thus seek, a continuation of the war. The Syrians and the Kurds both stand to lose. They will team up, and settle their differences later. (It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall for the discussions where the Americans and/or the Israelis attempt to persuade the Kurds of the benefit of fighting the Syrians on one side while the entire Turkish army attacks them from the rear.)

    What do you think?

    , @Kiza
    The only thing where you are wrong about Turkey is:

    I suspect they are on Russia’s side.
     
    Turkey is on sultan Erdogan's side.

    Other than this, there is a chance that Turkey would get involved deeper in Syria upon some sort of agreement with Assad and a nod by the Russians. The difficulty here is that Assad may rather have some form of extended Kurdish autonomy rather than Turks invading Northern Syria. Thus, even Russians would be unlikely to approve of such Turkish action. The Syrians and the Russians will firstly try to negotiate and win over the Kurds, if this does not work all options will be on the table, to utilize the common cliche.
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  97. @Anatoly Karlin
    Just off the top of my head, I played a substantial role in refuting Paul Roderick Gregory's nonsense about 2,000 Russian military KIA in Donbass a couple of years ago.

    This is in approximately the same category of nonsense. If you and The Saker want to promote the most ridiculous, unhinged Russian propaganda, then be my guest, but ultimately the only thing you're doing undermining is Russia itself while making yourself a laughing stock.

    Incidentally, both Strelkov and El Murid also assign this to the BS category, so I might also want to take it up with them: https://vk.com/wall347260249_187338

    The fact of the victory is there. it has been pretty known case that since ancient times occasionally numbers of killed enemies were overestimated or how to put it, increased. But as Alexander Suvorov told in similar case: “Пиши поболе, чего их, супостатов, жалеть!”. Really, I do not get your irony.

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  98. @Anatoly Karlin
    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

    I find it difficult to believe the Russian MOD’s claims, which is kind of, for the lack of a better word, disappointing. They really don’t need this kind of, what looks like, third rate propaganda.

    I think the “speak softly, but carry (and use) a big stick” approach worked brilliantly for the Russians so far.

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  99. utu says:

    Did this happen in the same operation?

    Russian lieutenant-general killed in ISIS shelling near Deir ez-Zor, Syria – MoD

    https://www.rt.com/news/404410-russian-general-killed-syria/

    And what about this?

    Војни врх Русије објавио снимке који потврђују да САД тесно сарађују са Исламском државом

    http://fakti.org/oruzje/ruski-kalibar/vojni-vrh-rusije-objavio-snimke-koji-potvrdjuju-da-sad-tesno-saradjuju-sa-islamskom-drzavom

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Did this happen in the same operation?
     
    Not necessarily (but who knows) but once 3M14s fly--this is damn serious--the message most here still don't get. It is difficult to explain to people what targeting (Целеуказание) and Target-Distribution (Целерапределение) are. But I am sure Anatoly will come up with some graphs and correlations very soon.

    Војни врх Русије објавио снимке који потврђују да САД тесно сарађују са Исламском државом
     
    We'll see, something IS going on there and what is being discussed on Russian-US closed channels must be very important. Judging by this piece in Vzglyad today:

    https://vz.ru/world/2017/9/24/888330.html

    Translation: "Americans Now Need to Wash Themselves Off The Caliphate Connections", and by the tone of Russian MoD something happened. What? I hate to speculate.
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  100. Erebus says:
    @utu
    it would be a tremendous boost

    Yes, it would but Russia's propaganda machine is not up the task for some reasons. RT and Sputnik are very timid and often very inept and never manage to take over the initiative in the media cycle and thus always remain in the position of just being reactive to western MSM allegations, chutzpah and fake news.

    Russian MoD released some sat photos, claiming to show that US SF, IS & SDF are coordinating.

    ISIS positions north of Deir Ezzor manned by US Special Forces. Photos prove America is ISIS

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/09/24/blockbuster-russian-satellite-proof-america-is-isiss/

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  101. Avery says:
    @skrik

    I mean, it would be a tremendous boost to supporters
     
    Do you consider images of "the highway of death" to have been good PR? rgds

    {Do you consider images of “the highway of death” to have been good PR? rgds}

    “the highway of death”: No, I don’t.

    You are either completely clueless or trying to bait me.

    “Highway of death”:

    The thoroughly defeated Iraqi army was retreating towards Iraq.
    Despite the Western lies, they committed no atrocities against civilians in Kuwait.
    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.

    Syria:

    ISIS and all other assorted terrorists are foreign sponsored, foreign financed, foreign armed invaders of Syrian Arab Republic. They have been massacring Syrian civilians for years.
    Their invasion has cost about 500,000 Syrian lives: military and civilians.
    They are head choppers. Cannibals. SAA soldiers who are unlucky enough to fall prisoner are tortured to death, or have their throats cut while alive.

    As such, the homeowners of Syria have the God given right to chop the filth to pieces and burn the chunks to crisp: no mercy.

    So yes: it will be tremendous psychological boost to those of us who care about Syria to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.

    Thanks for asking.
    Best regards.
    Avery.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.
     
    Agree.
    , @skrik

    to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.
     
    G'day, thanks for your politeness and I do understand the significance of the highway of death, also in contrast to what's going on in Syria [Libya, etc., Wesley Clark's 'take out of 7 in 5']. My point was more implied than specified but is this: 'The West' has a totally irrational hate campaign going, directed at Russia; IF the Rs showed gruesome pictures of dead, burnt bodies THEN that hate campaign would probably be exponentially revved up: "See how bad they are!" = never good for the Rs.
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  102. @Anatoly Karlin
    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

    conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

    Anatoly, google Osipov-Lanchester Equations. then go on to Salvo Model–may help somewhat (I underscore that–somewhat, it still is not going to explain a lot), but no, it does need further explanations because the “math” you operate is basically a sham and has no relations with how operations are planned and executed. I will reiterate my point–Operations’ Manuals and Guides (Оперативные Наставления и Руководства) are not for general public’s view and in fact constitute one of the most guarded secrets of any serious nation. But then again, we have to only view Russian VKS operational tempo in those 48 hours to get an idea, this is not to speak of what Russian Navy did from Eastern Med. So, yes, sorry–not interested in opinions of Girkin, Smeyan or whoever else you rub your shoulders with–I used to communicate with professionals.

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    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    ... google Osipov-Lanchester Equations
     
    I am familiar with them.

    Now could you please explain how the Lanchester equations (or their naval equivalents) are at all relevant in this scenario?

    (They were developed to calculate attrition in a battle between two conventional - that is, non-stealth, non-guerilla - forces. Now they would be relevant if this was a conventional conflict like the Gulf War, where you had a well-equipped but incompetent Iraqi military in a conventional battle against a far more competent, more technologically advanced US military. In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn't apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).
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  103. @utu
    Did this happen in the same operation?

    Russian lieutenant-general killed in ISIS shelling near Deir ez-Zor, Syria - MoD
    https://www.rt.com/news/404410-russian-general-killed-syria/

    And what about this?

    Војни врх Русије објавио снимке који потврђују да САД тесно сарађују са Исламском државом
    http://fakti.org/oruzje/ruski-kalibar/vojni-vrh-rusije-objavio-snimke-koji-potvrdjuju-da-sad-tesno-saradjuju-sa-islamskom-drzavom

    Did this happen in the same operation?

    Not necessarily (but who knows) but once 3M14s fly–this is damn serious–the message most here still don’t get. It is difficult to explain to people what targeting (Целеуказание) and Target-Distribution (Целерапределение) are. But I am sure Anatoly will come up with some graphs and correlations very soon.

    Војни врх Русије објавио снимке који потврђују да САД тесно сарађују са Исламском државом

    We’ll see, something IS going on there and what is being discussed on Russian-US closed channels must be very important. Judging by this piece in Vzglyad today:

    https://vz.ru/world/2017/9/24/888330.html

    Translation: “Americans Now Need to Wash Themselves Off The Caliphate Connections”, and by the tone of Russian MoD something happened. What? I hate to speculate.

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  104. @Jeff Davis
    I've been puzzling over this business for about a year now. Vladimir Putin appears to be a very steady and masterful strategic thinker, and in the tradition of Russian Chess Masters, he must be thinking well ahead and planning for this situation. In particular, he is absolutely committed, as any rational person would be, to avoiding any nuclear exchange with the United States.

    Putin intends to restore Syrian authority to the Assad government. To achieve that end he will continue to confront the proxy forces the United States has been employing in its regime-change effort in Syria. The combined Syrian/Russian forces have already defeated Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in the West, confining them to Idlib province where they await a final disposition, political or military. Now they are mopping up ISIS in the east, finishing the effort to reassert control over all of Syria. It is at this stage, as Saker observes, that the moment of greatest danger arrives.

    It is to be assumed that the Americans, committed to achieving their goal of partition, if not destruction, of Syria will make every effort to stand their ground. Hubris, arrogance, overconfidence, and the safety of operating thousands of miles away from the front lines, not to mention the cultural belligerence of generals, will make the commanders of Centcom insufficiently responsive -- uninterested, ... indifferent even -- to the danger of unswerving belligerence. The civilian leadership may understand the necessity of stepping back from the brink, but generals, never.

    So how can Putin handle it? I see three possibilities:

    (1) the Russians and Syrians come nose-to-nose with the Kurds and stop. Then they negotiate with the Kurds an "autonomy" arrangement. The US and the Israelis won't like that, but the Kurds aren't stupid, they've been betrayed/abandoned by the United States before and will be the ones to suffer in a military confrontation, so they see clearly the advantage of a political solution, notwithstanding any US and Israeli objection.

    (2) The Russians and Syrians move forward, the Kurds discreetly move back slightly, and call in American Air Support. The Americans send in the Air Force, whereupon the Russians put their nuclear strategic forces on highest alert, and light up the American planes with S400 radars. If the Americans don't turn back at that point, the Russians deploy their own aircraft with electronic countermeasures -- possibly drones with EW capability -- to non-lethally neutralize the American Air Support. (Which is to say the Russians establish a no-fly zone over Eastern Syria.) With nuclear war a single mistake away the American political leadership may at this point choose to pull back. If they don't.......

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on ... wait for it ... Israel. The United States will not have been struck, so the immediate, compulsory, and irrevocable retaliatory response will not be triggered. The source of the problem: America's subversion by Zionist interests -- by Israel;
    it's Zionist directed foreign policy of global belligerence with it's attendant bankrupting military expenditures, will have been mooted by "ending" Israel. At that point the world will have changed, and the underlying rationale for American foreign policy -- The Wolfowitz Doctrine: the American jackboot on the world's throat ***FOREVER*** -- will have been neutralized. International policy will be recalibrated without the Zionist poison. The United States will have been freed from Israeli domination. And nuclear war will have been averted.

    I'm an American and a Jew. For 5,000 years, Jewish overreach has been the hallmark of Jewish behavior. Looking at it dispassionately one might conclude that Jewish ambition over the millennia -- consistent with the ambition of so many other "nations" -- has been either hegemonic domination or suicide-by-goy. You be the judge, slow learners or just plain insane? And now they're at it again.

    We shall see.

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.

    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM

    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101–more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM’s Forward Command. Here it is:

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second–make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn’t hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia’s strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8–in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    It hurts even reading this.
    , @Jeff Davis
    With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater -- Centcom in Tampa being safely distant -- would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation. The US general does not exist who would hold his fire if attacked. (With the possible exception of Admiral McCain, the Senator's father, who called back the planes that had been dispatched to protect the USS Liberty. But in that case, the attackers were Israeli "allies" not the Russian "enemy".)

    Whereas a defeat of Israel would moot the entire American Mideast policy. The US likely would come to Israel's defense in any serious conflict with a non-nuclear foe, where US survival was not at stake, but with Russian nuclear forces at full readiness and no chance of a US disarming first strike, the US would not commit suicide. And most certainly not as a revenge attack after Israel had been destroyed.
    , @Erebus

    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there.
     
    Militarily, probably so. Politically, it is 1st tier, and not just there. America's geo-political goals and interests would surely adjust dramatically if it disappeared.

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that "... Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons..."? If they're not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?
    , @Kiza
    Andrei, I would side with Jeff Davis on this, for what it is worth. Israel is a much better retaliatory target than CENTCOM. It it would also make a lot of sense as a response the next time the Israelis send planes to bomb Syria, juts pay them back for all the bombings in direct support of ISIS. But it is easy to be an armchair general.
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  105. @Avery
    {Do you consider images of “the highway of death” to have been good PR? rgds}

    “the highway of death”: No, I don't.

    You are either completely clueless or trying to bait me.

    "Highway of death":

    The thoroughly defeated Iraqi army was retreating towards Iraq.
    Despite the Western lies, they committed no atrocities against civilians in Kuwait.
    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.

    Syria:

    ISIS and all other assorted terrorists are foreign sponsored, foreign financed, foreign armed invaders of Syrian Arab Republic. They have been massacring Syrian civilians for years.
    Their invasion has cost about 500,000 Syrian lives: military and civilians.
    They are head choppers. Cannibals. SAA soldiers who are unlucky enough to fall prisoner are tortured to death, or have their throats cut while alive.

    As such, the homeowners of Syria have the God given right to chop the filth to pieces and burn the chunks to crisp: no mercy.

    So yes: it will be tremendous psychological boost to those of us who care about Syria to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.

    Thanks for asking.
    Best regards.
    Avery.

    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.

    Agree.

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  106. hunor says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    The notion that almost 1,000 jihadists could have been killed by Russian airstrikes over a period of about a day in a conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.

    ” the notion that almost 1000 jihadist could have been killed by Russian airstrikes,”

    the jihadist could have succeeded , but the Russians were prepared for them , not just the air force but also SOF Russian and Syrian units and Syrian infantry units were deployed. the Russians intercepted communications between the jihadist and they American/Israeli masters , of they plan.
    In any conflict information is the key. Do not feel sorry for the jihadist, they sold they soul to the devil, besides as of now they are about to pick the seventy two virgins coming to them. Who’s side are you people anyway, good shell overcome evil . But who is evil ? People who defending they own country against manipulating foreign mercenaries , and jihadist are the good guys. No amount of clever argument of yours can change that. The evil who is messing around eight thousand mile away from home, with destruction in mind. Yes they have clever reasoning, as to why but so did Dhingis Khan, Attila the hun, Napoleon, Hitler. Face it if you can.

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  107. @Andrei Martyanov

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.
     
    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM
     
    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101--more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM's Forward Command. Here it is:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg/1920px-Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second--make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn't hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia's strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8--in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.

    It hurts even reading this.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    It hurts even reading this.
     
    You see, many people think that war is a linear affair, that is why many still don't get it how can one achieve 10 to 1 advantage in armor and other forces when the opposing forces are approximately equal A famous Quadratic Law. Here is even run-of-the mill site gives some info:

    http://russianforces.org/aviation/

    They say at around 200, so, just for those interested--how many waves could there be with X-101s if first total theoretical wave could have about 200? A very interesting question once one considers that they all will launch from Caspian Sea at approximately Baku or Lankaran altitude, that is without leaving Russia's airspace. Tu-22s, in the same time... but here is the issue of Iran pops-up;-) So, I will not go further.
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  108. @Andrei Martyanov

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.
     
    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM
     
    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101--more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM's Forward Command. Here it is:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg/1920px-Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second--make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn't hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia's strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8--in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.

    With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater — Centcom in Tampa being safely distant — would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation. The US general does not exist who would hold his fire if attacked. (With the possible exception of Admiral McCain, the Senator’s father, who called back the planes that had been dispatched to protect the USS Liberty. But in that case, the attackers were Israeli “allies” not the Russian “enemy”.)

    Whereas a defeat of Israel would moot the entire American Mideast policy. The US likely would come to Israel’s defense in any serious conflict with a non-nuclear foe, where US survival was not at stake, but with Russian nuclear forces at full readiness and no chance of a US disarming first strike, the US would not commit suicide. And most certainly not as a revenge attack after Israel had been destroyed.

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  109. @poop
    For whatever its worth, and its not much as I am just some dupe posting on an internet comments section, your analysis of the Syria situation is as brilliant and accurate as I have seen. I might add a potential Option 4:

    The Turks, with their army massed on the Syrian border under the guise of implementing the "de-escalation zones" use the Kurdish Independence vote in northern Iraq as causus belli to move into Northern Syria and annihilate US-backed Kurdish forces. The Turks seem to have a non-public alliance with Russia at this point, and being a member of NATO (with US troops and bases present in its own territory) makes US/Israeli escalation with Turkey difficult to impossible and escalation with Russia moot.

    In other words, I see Turkey as a pivotal wild card in the resolution of this mess, and I suspect they are on Russia's side.

    We shall see, indeed. God help us.

    Exactly right, good catch, poopster. I thought about the Turkish factor yesterday, but forgot about it in composing my comment.

    Here’s what I concluded. The Kurds, notwithstanding their employment by the US as their proxy anti-ISIS boots-on-the-ground, are caught between the Turks and the Syrian/Russian forces. The Turks present a substantially greater danger than Syria/Russia. In fact, the Syrians have no real beef with the Kurds, who were given the green light by Damascus early in the conflict, to take charge in their region. So I estimate that when the Syrians and Kurds meet up, they will quickly arrive at an accommodation. The Kurds will ally with the Syrian/Russian forces, and their combined forces will transit Kurdish-controlled territory and face off against the Turks, preventing any Turkish advance.

    That looks to me like pragmatism of the most obvious sort. The Americans, Israelis, and Turks all benefit from, and thus seek, a continuation of the war. The Syrians and the Kurds both stand to lose. They will team up, and settle their differences later. (It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall for the discussions where the Americans and/or the Israelis attempt to persuade the Kurds of the benefit of fighting the Syrians on one side while the entire Turkish army attacks them from the rear.)

    What do you think?

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  110. With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater — Centcom in Tampa being safely distant — would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation.

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015. If, what is going in Russian media now–a direct accusation of US forces colluding with ISIS turn out to be true (we all know it is true but as in Dune: “The Forms must be obeyed”) –a process which may take some time, we are looking here at a totally different paradigm altogether. US currently is hysterical and irrational precisely for sustaining a defeat, so it has to be treated accurately and cautiously, unlike Americans Russians have a damn good idea about what real war is.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow.
     
    Yeah.......

    My take: both US and Russian personnel on the ground in Syria die/get mutilated (and they shall...), nothing happens.
    Some blather in media and by politicians/civil servants, and that's it.
    The show will simply go on.
    , @Kiza
    Andrei, I have two mental pictures regarding US in my mind.

    The first one is of an old man who still wants to believe that he can do what he cannot do any more. He used to climb trees when he was young that no other boy could climb. Now this old dotard behaves as if he is still young and powerful and is likely to end up with every bone in his body broken. There is that strong impression coming from US that they just need to get angry/mad and then they will show those Russians who is the boss just as they showed it to Grenada (just need to get angrier than towards Grenada). And you are absolutely right that US has suffered a lot of military failures but never a catastrophic defeat yet, thus they have no idea what really awaits them. Opposite to this, the Russians have suffered some catastrophic victories for which the AngloZionists usually take all the credit.

    The second mental picture of US is the one which is usually credited to Nixon, I believe - the Russians need to always think that US is crazy, without knowing just how crazy it really is. As children in my neighborhood, we used to say for a guy - he has a licence that he is crazy therefore he can do whatever he likes, he can even kill you and suffer no consequences. The problem with such schemes is that the schemer himself eventually becomes overtaken by the crazy scheme. When the Russians get tired of the US crazy act one day soon, then there are gonna be some real fireworks and some real pain never ever ever felt before. Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is. This starts with almost 30,000 uniformed US hostages in South Korea - not enough to do anything militarily but plenty of turkeys to shoot. US is just plenty rich target list, like a shop full of candy, one would find it hard to chose where to start from.

    Stand-off missiles or not, this is why US has not attacked the Russians in Syria directly, only through its terrorist proxies.

    , @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.
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  111. @Sergey Krieger
    It hurts even reading this.

    It hurts even reading this.

    You see, many people think that war is a linear affair, that is why many still don’t get it how can one achieve 10 to 1 advantage in armor and other forces when the opposing forces are approximately equal A famous Quadratic Law. Here is even run-of-the mill site gives some info:

    http://russianforces.org/aviation/

    They say at around 200, so, just for those interested–how many waves could there be with X-101s if first total theoretical wave could have about 200? A very interesting question once one considers that they all will launch from Caspian Sea at approximately Baku or Lankaran altitude, that is without leaving Russia’s airspace. Tu-22s, in the same time… but here is the issue of Iran pops-up;-) So, I will not go further.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    It is similar to many people thinking that double speed of a car means double impact force when it is actually quadruple. War seems to be not linear on many levels. By the way. You mentioned Iran territory. Obviously closer, more rotation. Is there possibility of stockpiles and using Iran air fields.
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  112. Erebus says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.
     
    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM
     
    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101--more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM's Forward Command. Here it is:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg/1920px-Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second--make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn't hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia's strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8--in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.

    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there.

    Militarily, probably so. Politically, it is 1st tier, and not just there. America’s geo-political goals and interests would surely adjust dramatically if it disappeared.

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that “… Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons…”? If they’re not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that “… Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons…”? If they’re not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?
     
    The US is not even in the same league with Russia as far as the cruise missiles technologies are concerned. Why it is so--the answer may require a separate huge dissertation. US simply has nothing. zero, what compares to range of X-101 (5,500 km) and new generation of missiles with 10, 000 kilometer range. In terms of anti-shipping cruise missiles--the gap is simply dramatic. As per Russia striking--if US directly attacks any Russian asset in Syria, absolutely. This point has been raised here not for once in the last two years and for the last two years, it seems, most people continue to ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room--WHY US, despite calls from some, including such psychopaths as Ralph Peters or General Scales, still didn't attack Russian contingent in Syria? All kinds of theories have been floated around except the only one which is in the foundation of Russia's operations (successful) in Syria and that is the fact that any US (Israeli) major military asset in the region, from military bases to installations, is well within the range and it doesn't take long to upload the flight plan into those missiles, in fact it can easily be done on the go. So, there is nothing "dramatic" in my suggestions but a simple statement of the fact that strategically paradigm shifted--open 2014 Russia's Military Doctrine, Article 26. Russia simply matched US in conventional capabilities for containment. I am not anymore sure, after reading the latest "product" from Pentagon, namely this:

    https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

    That there are still competent people left there (after all they claimed this, and I quote:


    As the American Army fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, it became the best tactical level counter insurgency force of the modern era
     
    But even they should understand, I hope so, that doing stupid reckless things can have consequences. As per USM "being aware", sure it is aware--it is in every single open media in the world. But being aware and knowing (and understanding) are very different things.
    , @peterAUS
    Agree with the first paragraph.

    Similar sentiment with the second. Don't believe Russians have any technological advantage,but believe that decision making process in Washington is unbalanced. They CAN make a mistake in underestimating the will of the regime in Moscow.

    As for third, I believe it is ludicrous.
    Or not if you want a discussion here;could be a good "clickbait".
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  113. @Erebus

    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there.
     
    Militarily, probably so. Politically, it is 1st tier, and not just there. America's geo-political goals and interests would surely adjust dramatically if it disappeared.

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that "... Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons..."? If they're not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that “… Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons…”? If they’re not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?

    The US is not even in the same league with Russia as far as the cruise missiles technologies are concerned. Why it is so–the answer may require a separate huge dissertation. US simply has nothing. zero, what compares to range of X-101 (5,500 km) and new generation of missiles with 10, 000 kilometer range. In terms of anti-shipping cruise missiles–the gap is simply dramatic. As per Russia striking–if US directly attacks any Russian asset in Syria, absolutely. This point has been raised here not for once in the last two years and for the last two years, it seems, most people continue to ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room–WHY US, despite calls from some, including such psychopaths as Ralph Peters or General Scales, still didn’t attack Russian contingent in Syria? All kinds of theories have been floated around except the only one which is in the foundation of Russia’s operations (successful) in Syria and that is the fact that any US (Israeli) major military asset in the region, from military bases to installations, is well within the range and it doesn’t take long to upload the flight plan into those missiles, in fact it can easily be done on the go. So, there is nothing “dramatic” in my suggestions but a simple statement of the fact that strategically paradigm shifted–open 2014 Russia’s Military Doctrine, Article 26. Russia simply matched US in conventional capabilities for containment. I am not anymore sure, after reading the latest “product” from Pentagon, namely this:

    https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

    That there are still competent people left there (after all they claimed this, and I quote:

    As the American Army fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, it became the best tactical level counter insurgency force of the modern era

    But even they should understand, I hope so, that doing stupid reckless things can have consequences. As per USM “being aware”, sure it is aware–it is in every single open media in the world. But being aware and knowing (and understanding) are very different things.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    At first your texts appear as credible as written by seeming knowledgeable person but then some sentences have singularly wrong tones or false notes that are tinted with exaggeration, bragging, Russian wounded ego and defensiveness. There are the giveaways that undermine your credibility. If your intention is just morale boosting it still may work on the pro Russian crowd who is starving for bias confirmation or dispelling the lingering doubts but you won't change skeptics into believers and obviously you do not scare those who are hostile to Russia. Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.
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  114. peterAUS says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater — Centcom in Tampa being safely distant — would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation.
     
    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM's forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces' actions--US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015. If, what is going in Russian media now--a direct accusation of US forces colluding with ISIS turn out to be true (we all know it is true but as in Dune: "The Forms must be obeyed") --a process which may take some time, we are looking here at a totally different paradigm altogether. US currently is hysterical and irrational precisely for sustaining a defeat, so it has to be treated accurately and cautiously, unlike Americans Russians have a damn good idea about what real war is.

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow.

    Yeah…….

    My take: both US and Russian personnel on the ground in Syria die/get mutilated (and they shall…), nothing happens.
    Some blather in media and by politicians/civil servants, and that’s it.
    The show will simply go on.

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  115. Kiza says:
    @Jeff Davis
    I've been puzzling over this business for about a year now. Vladimir Putin appears to be a very steady and masterful strategic thinker, and in the tradition of Russian Chess Masters, he must be thinking well ahead and planning for this situation. In particular, he is absolutely committed, as any rational person would be, to avoiding any nuclear exchange with the United States.

    Putin intends to restore Syrian authority to the Assad government. To achieve that end he will continue to confront the proxy forces the United States has been employing in its regime-change effort in Syria. The combined Syrian/Russian forces have already defeated Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra in the West, confining them to Idlib province where they await a final disposition, political or military. Now they are mopping up ISIS in the east, finishing the effort to reassert control over all of Syria. It is at this stage, as Saker observes, that the moment of greatest danger arrives.

    It is to be assumed that the Americans, committed to achieving their goal of partition, if not destruction, of Syria will make every effort to stand their ground. Hubris, arrogance, overconfidence, and the safety of operating thousands of miles away from the front lines, not to mention the cultural belligerence of generals, will make the commanders of Centcom insufficiently responsive -- uninterested, ... indifferent even -- to the danger of unswerving belligerence. The civilian leadership may understand the necessity of stepping back from the brink, but generals, never.

    So how can Putin handle it? I see three possibilities:

    (1) the Russians and Syrians come nose-to-nose with the Kurds and stop. Then they negotiate with the Kurds an "autonomy" arrangement. The US and the Israelis won't like that, but the Kurds aren't stupid, they've been betrayed/abandoned by the United States before and will be the ones to suffer in a military confrontation, so they see clearly the advantage of a political solution, notwithstanding any US and Israeli objection.

    (2) The Russians and Syrians move forward, the Kurds discreetly move back slightly, and call in American Air Support. The Americans send in the Air Force, whereupon the Russians put their nuclear strategic forces on highest alert, and light up the American planes with S400 radars. If the Americans don't turn back at that point, the Russians deploy their own aircraft with electronic countermeasures -- possibly drones with EW capability -- to non-lethally neutralize the American Air Support. (Which is to say the Russians establish a no-fly zone over Eastern Syria.) With nuclear war a single mistake away the American political leadership may at this point choose to pull back. If they don't.......

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on ... wait for it ... Israel. The United States will not have been struck, so the immediate, compulsory, and irrevocable retaliatory response will not be triggered. The source of the problem: America's subversion by Zionist interests -- by Israel;
    it's Zionist directed foreign policy of global belligerence with it's attendant bankrupting military expenditures, will have been mooted by "ending" Israel. At that point the world will have changed, and the underlying rationale for American foreign policy -- The Wolfowitz Doctrine: the American jackboot on the world's throat ***FOREVER*** -- will have been neutralized. International policy will be recalibrated without the Zionist poison. The United States will have been freed from Israeli domination. And nuclear war will have been averted.

    I'm an American and a Jew. For 5,000 years, Jewish overreach has been the hallmark of Jewish behavior. Looking at it dispassionately one might conclude that Jewish ambition over the millennia -- consistent with the ambition of so many other "nations" -- has been either hegemonic domination or suicide-by-goy. You be the judge, slow learners or just plain insane? And now they're at it again.

    We shall see.

    Jeff, very good analysis thank you.

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  116. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there.
     
    Militarily, probably so. Politically, it is 1st tier, and not just there. America's geo-political goals and interests would surely adjust dramatically if it disappeared.

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that "... Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons..."? If they're not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?

    Agree with the first paragraph.

    Similar sentiment with the second. Don’t believe Russians have any technological advantage,but believe that decision making process in Washington is unbalanced. They CAN make a mistake in underestimating the will of the regime in Moscow.

    As for third, I believe it is ludicrous.
    Or not if you want a discussion here;could be a good “clickbait”.

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  117. Kiza says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Option 3: Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … Israel.
     
    The thing which almost all here miss is that Israel is merely a third tier power there. Let me fix it for you in your quote:

    Russia/Putin can launch some degree of devastation on … wait for it … CENTCOM
     
    I can tell you even more, the first salvo probably will be around 80 X-101--more than enough to wipe out or damage seriously CENTCOM's Forward Command. Here it is:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg/1920px-Al_Udeid_Air_Base.jpg

    That is in the first wave, what would follow in the second--make a guess. I am trying to explain to people here for years but it seems that the fact that Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons doesn't hit the spot, albeit what it would take to really get it is to count the number of Russia's strategic bombers and multiply (just for the good measure by 8--in reality it will be substantially more) and one will get the number.

    Andrei, I would side with Jeff Davis on this, for what it is worth. Israel is a much better retaliatory target than CENTCOM. It it would also make a lot of sense as a response the next time the Israelis send planes to bomb Syria, juts pay them back for all the bombings in direct support of ISIS. But it is easy to be an armchair general.

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  118. Erebus says:

    By “aware”, I did wish to imply “understand the implications of”.

    The issue of course, should your prediction come true, is that the so-called Empire would then be faced with what it would see as an existential Either/Or. If CENTCOM, Doha was attacked/destroyed, the US must hit back at some multiple of the Russian attack, or instantly lose its #1 position. Its clients would scramble for the exits, and its “brand” would never recover. It’s all the way up to nukes from there.

    If the Russians, having gamed out “n+1″ possible trajectories, feel they’re in a position to essentially dictate terms in the M.E., the world is indeed, and quite suddenly, a different place.

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  119. Kiza says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater — Centcom in Tampa being safely distant — would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation.
     
    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM's forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces' actions--US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015. If, what is going in Russian media now--a direct accusation of US forces colluding with ISIS turn out to be true (we all know it is true but as in Dune: "The Forms must be obeyed") --a process which may take some time, we are looking here at a totally different paradigm altogether. US currently is hysterical and irrational precisely for sustaining a defeat, so it has to be treated accurately and cautiously, unlike Americans Russians have a damn good idea about what real war is.

    Andrei, I have two mental pictures regarding US in my mind.

    The first one is of an old man who still wants to believe that he can do what he cannot do any more. He used to climb trees when he was young that no other boy could climb. Now this old dotard behaves as if he is still young and powerful and is likely to end up with every bone in his body broken. There is that strong impression coming from US that they just need to get angry/mad and then they will show those Russians who is the boss just as they showed it to Grenada (just need to get angrier than towards Grenada). And you are absolutely right that US has suffered a lot of military failures but never a catastrophic defeat yet, thus they have no idea what really awaits them. Opposite to this, the Russians have suffered some catastrophic victories for which the AngloZionists usually take all the credit.

    The second mental picture of US is the one which is usually credited to Nixon, I believe – the Russians need to always think that US is crazy, without knowing just how crazy it really is. As children in my neighborhood, we used to say for a guy – he has a licence that he is crazy therefore he can do whatever he likes, he can even kill you and suffer no consequences. The problem with such schemes is that the schemer himself eventually becomes overtaken by the crazy scheme. When the Russians get tired of the US crazy act one day soon, then there are gonna be some real fireworks and some real pain never ever ever felt before. Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is. This starts with almost 30,000 uniformed US hostages in South Korea – not enough to do anything militarily but plenty of turkeys to shoot. US is just plenty rich target list, like a shop full of candy, one would find it hard to chose where to start from.

    Stand-off missiles or not, this is why US has not attacked the Russians in Syria directly, only through its terrorist proxies.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is.
     
    A very good point. If you read the new Pentagon's "creation"--a handbook on how to fight Russians (I suspect that it is a deliberate information operation to create an impression that people who sit in Pentagon are complete morons to concoct such an amateurish crap and I know that there are still many good professionals out there) one of the American "strengths" there is her network of bases. Reality, of course, is entirely different since it violates the most important strategic postulate of force and resources concentration. Moreover, very many of those bases are within the range of Russia's conventional strikes. This is the reality US didn't encounter ever albeit all efforts were made in 1980s to remove RK-55 Granat from Soviet service since everyone knew that at some point this missile will be able to carry not just nuclear but conventional warhead. Today a number of crucial US technologies, such as carriers, which were driving doctrines are becoming or already became obsolete--this is not a pleasant reality to face but that is what happened.
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  120. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    BTW, is the USM fully aware that “… Russia leads US by a generation on stand-off weapons…”? If they’re not, the implications are indeed scary.
    Is your suggestion intended for dramatic effect, or is it your seriously considered opinion that Russia would directly attack a major USM asset?
     
    The US is not even in the same league with Russia as far as the cruise missiles technologies are concerned. Why it is so--the answer may require a separate huge dissertation. US simply has nothing. zero, what compares to range of X-101 (5,500 km) and new generation of missiles with 10, 000 kilometer range. In terms of anti-shipping cruise missiles--the gap is simply dramatic. As per Russia striking--if US directly attacks any Russian asset in Syria, absolutely. This point has been raised here not for once in the last two years and for the last two years, it seems, most people continue to ignore the 800 pound gorilla in the room--WHY US, despite calls from some, including such psychopaths as Ralph Peters or General Scales, still didn't attack Russian contingent in Syria? All kinds of theories have been floated around except the only one which is in the foundation of Russia's operations (successful) in Syria and that is the fact that any US (Israeli) major military asset in the region, from military bases to installations, is well within the range and it doesn't take long to upload the flight plan into those missiles, in fact it can easily be done on the go. So, there is nothing "dramatic" in my suggestions but a simple statement of the fact that strategically paradigm shifted--open 2014 Russia's Military Doctrine, Article 26. Russia simply matched US in conventional capabilities for containment. I am not anymore sure, after reading the latest "product" from Pentagon, namely this:

    https://info.publicintelligence.net/AWG-RussianNewWarfareHandbook.pdf

    That there are still competent people left there (after all they claimed this, and I quote:


    As the American Army fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, it became the best tactical level counter insurgency force of the modern era
     
    But even they should understand, I hope so, that doing stupid reckless things can have consequences. As per USM "being aware", sure it is aware--it is in every single open media in the world. But being aware and knowing (and understanding) are very different things.

    At first your texts appear as credible as written by seeming knowledgeable person but then some sentences have singularly wrong tones or false notes that are tinted with exaggeration, bragging, Russian wounded ego and defensiveness. There are the giveaways that undermine your credibility. If your intention is just morale boosting it still may work on the pro Russian crowd who is starving for bias confirmation or dispelling the lingering doubts but you won’t change skeptics into believers and obviously you do not scare those who are hostile to Russia. Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @JL
    In Andrei's first article here at Unz, you claimed you were taking bets that Putin would be out of power by the end of summer. Yet, here you are, comically attacking his credibility on Russian military affairs. What's even more amusing is how you were wondering out loud how it is that Putin was allowed to get away with his Syria gambit. Andrei is explaining it to you here, in no uncertain terms, and yet you condescendingly attack him for it. Your own lack of credibility has been solidly confirmed. Andrei's, not so much.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.
     
    I am OK with this--I float the idea, people are free to agree or disagree with it. I usually provide facts and information in support. If you want (probably what set you off) to prove to me, as an example, that US IS in the same league with Russia in terms of all types of cruise missiles, be my guest. I certainly would enjoy your substantive argumentation instead of platitudes about about my "morale boosting" efforts.
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  121. Kiza says:

    Now, the Russian Defense Ministry has released a statement followed by 12 photos showing how SDF forces work alongside US special forces in ISIS controlled areas without facing any resistance from ISIS. Furthermore, none of the US or Kurdish led forces even take defensive positions which indicate that they are cooperating with ISIS rather than engaging in a perverse truce. In other words, the SDF, US special forces and ISIS move among each other in the same manner as allies do.

    The following is the statement from the Russian Defense Ministry on the matter:

    “US Special Operations Forces (SOF) units enable US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) units to smoothly advance through the ISIS formations.

    Facing no resistance of the ISIS militants, the SDF units are advancing along the left shore of the Euphrates towards Deir ezZor.

    The aerial photos made on September 8-12 over the ISIS locations recorded a large number of American Hummer vehicles, which are in service with the America‘s SOF.

    The shots clearly show the US SOF units located at strongholds that had been equipped by the ISIS terrorists. Though there is no evidence of assault, struggle or any US-led coalition airstrikes to drive out the militants.

    Despite that the US strongholds being located in the ISIS areas, no screening patrol has been organized at them. This suggests that the US troops feel safe in terrorist controlled regions”.

    It just happens that I have been saying for the last 10 years that first Al Qaeda and ISIS later are CIA-Mossad creations with classical full plausible deniability (they are the “enemy”).

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  122. Jake says:

    The US backing the alliance of Israel and the Saudis: nothing good can come from that. The House of Saud is the most revolting power base in the entire region, and American Neocons combine the essence of both Trotskyites and Yank WASPs heading to the Philippines to slaughter as many Filipinos as necessary to bring them democracy and freedom.

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  123. Read More
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  124. Talha says:
    @Andrei Martyanov
    Here is how things are scored. In this video alone at lest 50 (possibly more) of terrorists are fried after two hits.

    https://youtu.be/3P6iwct45-I

    If to consider that Velikii Novgorod also launched 5 "sausages" at ISIS targets and Kalibrs are never used on low-value targets, I would assume some serious concentrations of terrorists were also hit. So, I wouldn't be surprised if the number is, indeed, in hundreds. As per showing? Too early anyway. What was already shown with SSO's work gives some idea of intensity. So, eventually, I thinks, once all necessary info will be "white-outed" we may see a more full picture. In the same time, once one considers the stand of the 6th Company in Chechnya where by different estimates Khattab lost 400 to 700 jihadists, well--there you go. In fact, in Syria killing terrorist armor is a pretty routine thing.

    As always – thanks for the technical analysis on these Russian military matters.

    Looking forward to your next article.

    Peace.

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  125. Ron Unz says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    With respect Andrei, an attack on an American base in theater — Centcom in Tampa being safely distant — would, in my opinion, provoke an immediate escalation not a de-escalation.
     
    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM's forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces' actions--US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015. If, what is going in Russian media now--a direct accusation of US forces colluding with ISIS turn out to be true (we all know it is true but as in Dune: "The Forms must be obeyed") --a process which may take some time, we are looking here at a totally different paradigm altogether. US currently is hysterical and irrational precisely for sustaining a defeat, so it has to be treated accurately and cautiously, unlike Americans Russians have a damn good idea about what real war is.

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.

    Well, I can’t really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I’m just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That’s obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I’d think there’s a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

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    • Agree: Dan Hayes
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Although, personally, don't for a microsecond believe that any serious escalation is possible in THIS scenario (some minor clash in Syria), what IS interesting is:

    anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.
     
    Well, I believe it would be a short window of opportunity for a common person to influence such decision should things really get dangerous.

    The problem is, requires some previous effort and knowledge.
    Looking at the average Joe/Jane Bloggs, doesn't look encouraging.

    Hard to say....and definitely interesting.
    , @Miro23

    Well, I can’t really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I’m just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.
     

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear.
     
    That looks like the only outcome.

    The public have been primed against Russia and they would back war, Congress would follow orders (again) and vote unanimously for war. The Trump cabinet is more aggressively militarist than ever, and in the confusion, the Ziocons could 1) launch COG - their long desired "Emergency Regime" (dictatorship) and 2) almost by the way, flatten Iran.

    In fact, it almost looks like a planned outcome if the Russians are being drawn into a trap in Syria.

    One possibility, among others, is that the Russians can be attacked, and forced to retaliate, with their retaliation enhanced a little with Ziocon help to include supposed "Russian Missiles" destroying for example, CENTCOM forward command (i.e. the US gets False Flagged again).

    Trump is already primed with the "Destroy everything if missiles are launched " commitment (with regard to North Korea - but it's the same idea) and the Ziocs get their massive escalation and a chance to finish with Russia, Iran and US Democracy all in one blow.

    It's only a possibility, but one of the few reliable rules in psychology is that past actions are a very good predictor of future actions.

    On the Russian side, if CENTCOM mysteriously goes up in smoke, Putin should know what to do and not waste any time protesting his innocence.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.
     
    Who said anything about influencing? We are just talking here and doing what can roughly be defined as very inaccurate and raw contingency review. My point, especially after this:

    This could spin out of control very, very fast.

    If it does, we have to win rapidly and decisively — and keep it within Syria
     
    .
     
    This is from Peter's piece here--a tour de force of warmongering hysteria:

    https://nypost.com/2017/06/19/the-stakes-in-syria-now-include-us-russia-war/

    Peters is definitely a psychopath (as a NY Post is a tabloid) but Peters represents a very serious strata of American military (and policy setters) which not only would but has a contingency plan to strike at Russian force in Syria. It could have been possible without drastic escalation to a threshold (how--is a separate discussion) but it is NOT possible against the background of Russia's stand off capabilities which were demonstrated to a dramatic effect (with hysteria which followed in media) and if people do not remember I can remind them that after Caspian Sea launch US withdrew its carrier battle group from Persian Gulf:

    https://news.usni.org/2015/10/13/carrier-uss-theodore-roosevelt-chops-out-of-u-s-5th-fleet-no-firm-date-on-replacement-to-continue-anti-isis-strikes

    Just cold hard facts. That changed the game, completely. It immediately drastically limited US options in area and created a strategic framework for operational success. That was and is my point and I constantly stress it.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I’d think there’s a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.
     
    It is definitely possible--totally agree with your assessment.
    , @Avery
    {.... a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over}

    Unfortunately when populist massacres start, they do not confine themselves to those who ' have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over'. Mobs are irrational and when blood lust takes over, things spin out of control. Generally in those situations more innocents are killed than parasitic scum.

    Still, sadly, it may come to that.
    When the entrenched parasites and foreign agents fight tooth & nail to nullify the results of the election of POTUS, voters have run out of options. When majority* of voters are not allowed to change the course of the country they live in by peaceful vote, what are they to do?



    --------
    * Yes,yes I know: The Hildabeast got x millions of popular votes more than Trump. What they fail to note when they claim that is most of it came from the separate Universe of California. If you take California out of the popular vote equation, then Trump wins the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes.

    Plus, county-level vote results clearly show what America's people want.
    https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html
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  126. peterAUS says:
    @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    Although, personally, don’t for a microsecond believe that any serious escalation is possible in THIS scenario (some minor clash in Syria), what IS interesting is:

    anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    Well, I believe it would be a short window of opportunity for a common person to influence such decision should things really get dangerous.

    The problem is, requires some previous effort and knowledge.
    Looking at the average Joe/Jane Bloggs, doesn’t look encouraging.

    Hard to say….and definitely interesting.

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  127. Erebus says:

    (I) don’t for a microsecond believe that any serious escalation is possible (from) some minor clash in Syria…

    Politically, I can’t imagine such a drastic act unless USM did something like attack Latakia. Otherwise, they’ll “trade” any dead SF personnel and keep quiet about it. The USM may do something like the former when the scale of their strategic defeat finally dawns on them, but by then everyone in the national security sphere will know.

    Even so, to knock off CENTCOM, the Russians would have to have supreme confidence in their ability to counter any US response. The boldness of Andrei’s statement suggests that his information is that they do. If so, we’re effectively already in a post-US world…

    Ron, something recently happened to this website. None of the buttons work, nor the comment hover preview, apparently incl “Publish Comment” sometimes. This is on mobile Android, and Win Opera & Firefox via wifi.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    Politically, I can’t imagine such a drastic act unless USM did something like attack Latakia. Otherwise, they’ll “trade” any dead SF personnel and keep quiet about it
     
    .
    Agree.

    The USM may do something like the former when the scale of their strategic defeat finally dawns on them, but by then everyone in the national security sphere will know.
     
    Strategic defeat?
    Yeah....

    Even so, to knock off CENTCOM, the Russians would have to have supreme confidence in their ability to counter any US response. The boldness of Andrei’s statement suggests that his information is that they do. If so, we’re effectively already in a post-US world…
     
    Could be.
    Or Andrei is simply talking pure....
    Anyway.
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  128. skrik says:
    @Avery
    {Do you consider images of “the highway of death” to have been good PR? rgds}

    “the highway of death”: No, I don't.

    You are either completely clueless or trying to bait me.

    "Highway of death":

    The thoroughly defeated Iraqi army was retreating towards Iraq.
    Despite the Western lies, they committed no atrocities against civilians in Kuwait.
    The USAF attack was a gratuitous turkey shoot to satisfy some sick blood lust.
    No military reason at all: Iraqis were fleeing towards their home.

    Syria:

    ISIS and all other assorted terrorists are foreign sponsored, foreign financed, foreign armed invaders of Syrian Arab Republic. They have been massacring Syrian civilians for years.
    Their invasion has cost about 500,000 Syrian lives: military and civilians.
    They are head choppers. Cannibals. SAA soldiers who are unlucky enough to fall prisoner are tortured to death, or have their throats cut while alive.

    As such, the homeowners of Syria have the God given right to chop the filth to pieces and burn the chunks to crisp: no mercy.

    So yes: it will be tremendous psychological boost to those of us who care about Syria to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.

    Thanks for asking.
    Best regards.
    Avery.

    to see rows and rows and rows of corpses of terrorists: raw, well done, or crispy.

    G’day, thanks for your politeness and I do understand the significance of the highway of death, also in contrast to what’s going on in Syria [Libya, etc., Wesley Clark's 'take out of 7 in 5']. My point was more implied than specified but is this: ‘The West’ has a totally irrational hate campaign going, directed at Russia; IF the Rs showed gruesome pictures of dead, burnt bodies THEN that hate campaign would probably be exponentially revved up: “See how bad they are!” = never good for the Rs.

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  129. JL says:
    @utu
    At first your texts appear as credible as written by seeming knowledgeable person but then some sentences have singularly wrong tones or false notes that are tinted with exaggeration, bragging, Russian wounded ego and defensiveness. There are the giveaways that undermine your credibility. If your intention is just morale boosting it still may work on the pro Russian crowd who is starving for bias confirmation or dispelling the lingering doubts but you won't change skeptics into believers and obviously you do not scare those who are hostile to Russia. Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.

    In Andrei’s first article here at Unz, you claimed you were taking bets that Putin would be out of power by the end of summer. Yet, here you are, comically attacking his credibility on Russian military affairs. What’s even more amusing is how you were wondering out loud how it is that Putin was allowed to get away with his Syria gambit. Andrei is explaining it to you here, in no uncertain terms, and yet you condescendingly attack him for it. Your own lack of credibility has been solidly confirmed. Andrei’s, not so much.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Yes, I know and I remember and I do not deny it! I was wrong. It was not really a prediction; it was just an emotional outburst on my part that all was lost. The summer ended few days ago and Pootie-Poot is still around for which I am very glad.
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  130. Erebus says:

    And so it begins?

    Syria – U.S. CentCom Declares War On Russia

    Yesterday three high ranking Russian officers were killed in an “ISIS attack” in eastern-Syrian. It is likely that they were killed by U.S. special forces or insurgents under U.S. special forces control. The incident will be understood as a declaration of war.

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/09/syria-us-centcom-declares-war-on-russia.html#more

    One can still hope this turns out to be false.

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    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    Moon of Alabama is great, but he's way off base in thinking US actions in Syria are about oil.
    , @peterAUS
    Lieutenant General, top adviser, killed by MORTAR fire.

    Wh....o....oo....aa....h.....

    We'll just have to get used to this.

    Oceania etc.
    Moving on.

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  131. Kiza says:
    @poop
    For whatever its worth, and its not much as I am just some dupe posting on an internet comments section, your analysis of the Syria situation is as brilliant and accurate as I have seen. I might add a potential Option 4:

    The Turks, with their army massed on the Syrian border under the guise of implementing the "de-escalation zones" use the Kurdish Independence vote in northern Iraq as causus belli to move into Northern Syria and annihilate US-backed Kurdish forces. The Turks seem to have a non-public alliance with Russia at this point, and being a member of NATO (with US troops and bases present in its own territory) makes US/Israeli escalation with Turkey difficult to impossible and escalation with Russia moot.

    In other words, I see Turkey as a pivotal wild card in the resolution of this mess, and I suspect they are on Russia's side.

    We shall see, indeed. God help us.

    The only thing where you are wrong about Turkey is:

    I suspect they are on Russia’s side.

    Turkey is on sultan Erdogan’s side.

    Other than this, there is a chance that Turkey would get involved deeper in Syria upon some sort of agreement with Assad and a nod by the Russians. The difficulty here is that Assad may rather have some form of extended Kurdish autonomy rather than Turks invading Northern Syria. Thus, even Russians would be unlikely to approve of such Turkish action. The Syrians and the Russians will firstly try to negotiate and win over the Kurds, if this does not work all options will be on the table, to utilize the common cliche.

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  132. @Erebus
    And so it begins?

    Syria - U.S. CentCom Declares War On Russia

    Yesterday three high ranking Russian officers were killed in an "ISIS attack" in eastern-Syrian. It is likely that they were killed by U.S. special forces or insurgents under U.S. special forces control. The incident will be understood as a declaration of war.
     
    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/09/syria-us-centcom-declares-war-on-russia.html#more

    One can still hope this turns out to be false.

    Moon of Alabama is great, but he’s way off base in thinking US actions in Syria are about oil.

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  133. Saker, why don’t you get your Rooski buddies to deliver the same message to their proxies in the Donbas. Oh, I forgot, they want the killing of Ukrainians in the Donbas because they want to take over Ukraine and get back on the road to the USSR.

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  134. @utu
    At first your texts appear as credible as written by seeming knowledgeable person but then some sentences have singularly wrong tones or false notes that are tinted with exaggeration, bragging, Russian wounded ego and defensiveness. There are the giveaways that undermine your credibility. If your intention is just morale boosting it still may work on the pro Russian crowd who is starving for bias confirmation or dispelling the lingering doubts but you won't change skeptics into believers and obviously you do not scare those who are hostile to Russia. Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.

    Still I do exclude a possibility that you might be correct but if you are you are not doing a good job convincing people of it because you are overdoing it.

    I am OK with this–I float the idea, people are free to agree or disagree with it. I usually provide facts and information in support. If you want (probably what set you off) to prove to me, as an example, that US IS in the same league with Russia in terms of all types of cruise missiles, be my guest. I certainly would enjoy your substantive argumentation instead of platitudes about about my “morale boosting” efforts.

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  135. Miro23 says:
    @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    Well, I can’t really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I’m just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear.

    That looks like the only outcome.

    The public have been primed against Russia and they would back war, Congress would follow orders (again) and vote unanimously for war. The Trump cabinet is more aggressively militarist than ever, and in the confusion, the Ziocons could 1) launch COG – their long desired “Emergency Regime” (dictatorship) and 2) almost by the way, flatten Iran.

    In fact, it almost looks like a planned outcome if the Russians are being drawn into a trap in Syria.

    One possibility, among others, is that the Russians can be attacked, and forced to retaliate, with their retaliation enhanced a little with Ziocon help to include supposed “Russian Missiles” destroying for example, CENTCOM forward command (i.e. the US gets False Flagged again).

    Trump is already primed with the “Destroy everything if missiles are launched ” commitment (with regard to North Korea – but it’s the same idea) and the Ziocs get their massive escalation and a chance to finish with Russia, Iran and US Democracy all in one blow.

    It’s only a possibility, but one of the few reliable rules in psychology is that past actions are a very good predictor of future actions.

    On the Russian side, if CENTCOM mysteriously goes up in smoke, Putin should know what to do and not waste any time protesting his innocence.

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  136. @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    Who said anything about influencing? We are just talking here and doing what can roughly be defined as very inaccurate and raw contingency review. My point, especially after this:

    This could spin out of control very, very fast.

    If it does, we have to win rapidly and decisively — and keep it within Syria

    .

    This is from Peter’s piece here–a tour de force of warmongering hysteria:

    https://nypost.com/2017/06/19/the-stakes-in-syria-now-include-us-russia-war/

    Peters is definitely a psychopath (as a NY Post is a tabloid) but Peters represents a very serious strata of American military (and policy setters) which not only would but has a contingency plan to strike at Russian force in Syria. It could have been possible without drastic escalation to a threshold (how–is a separate discussion) but it is NOT possible against the background of Russia’s stand off capabilities which were demonstrated to a dramatic effect (with hysteria which followed in media) and if people do not remember I can remind them that after Caspian Sea launch US withdrew its carrier battle group from Persian Gulf:

    https://news.usni.org/2015/10/13/carrier-uss-theodore-roosevelt-chops-out-of-u-s-5th-fleet-no-firm-date-on-replacement-to-continue-anti-isis-strikes

    Just cold hard facts. That changed the game, completely. It immediately drastically limited US options in area and created a strategic framework for operational success. That was and is my point and I constantly stress it.

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  137. Erebus says:

    Moon of Alabama is great, but he’s way off base in thinking US actions in Syria are about oil.

    No-one’s right about everything. He was the first I saw with the breaking news, so I posted it.
    At this moment, Beefcake, it is all about the oil because the primary goal is to establish a viable Kurd statelet. A Kurdistan without oil is simply not viable. The race right now is grab the oil fields, and we may even see airborne troops brought in to block the SDF’s advance.

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  138. @Andrei Martyanov

    It hurts even reading this.
     
    You see, many people think that war is a linear affair, that is why many still don't get it how can one achieve 10 to 1 advantage in armor and other forces when the opposing forces are approximately equal A famous Quadratic Law. Here is even run-of-the mill site gives some info:

    http://russianforces.org/aviation/

    They say at around 200, so, just for those interested--how many waves could there be with X-101s if first total theoretical wave could have about 200? A very interesting question once one considers that they all will launch from Caspian Sea at approximately Baku or Lankaran altitude, that is without leaving Russia's airspace. Tu-22s, in the same time... but here is the issue of Iran pops-up;-) So, I will not go further.

    It is similar to many people thinking that double speed of a car means double impact force when it is actually quadruple. War seems to be not linear on many levels. By the way. You mentioned Iran territory. Obviously closer, more rotation. Is there possibility of stockpiles and using Iran air fields.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    It must be related to aircraft rotation tempo?
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  139. @Kiza
    Andrei, I have two mental pictures regarding US in my mind.

    The first one is of an old man who still wants to believe that he can do what he cannot do any more. He used to climb trees when he was young that no other boy could climb. Now this old dotard behaves as if he is still young and powerful and is likely to end up with every bone in his body broken. There is that strong impression coming from US that they just need to get angry/mad and then they will show those Russians who is the boss just as they showed it to Grenada (just need to get angrier than towards Grenada). And you are absolutely right that US has suffered a lot of military failures but never a catastrophic defeat yet, thus they have no idea what really awaits them. Opposite to this, the Russians have suffered some catastrophic victories for which the AngloZionists usually take all the credit.

    The second mental picture of US is the one which is usually credited to Nixon, I believe - the Russians need to always think that US is crazy, without knowing just how crazy it really is. As children in my neighborhood, we used to say for a guy - he has a licence that he is crazy therefore he can do whatever he likes, he can even kill you and suffer no consequences. The problem with such schemes is that the schemer himself eventually becomes overtaken by the crazy scheme. When the Russians get tired of the US crazy act one day soon, then there are gonna be some real fireworks and some real pain never ever ever felt before. Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is. This starts with almost 30,000 uniformed US hostages in South Korea - not enough to do anything militarily but plenty of turkeys to shoot. US is just plenty rich target list, like a shop full of candy, one would find it hard to chose where to start from.

    Stand-off missiles or not, this is why US has not attacked the Russians in Syria directly, only through its terrorist proxies.

    Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is.

    A very good point. If you read the new Pentagon’s “creation”–a handbook on how to fight Russians (I suspect that it is a deliberate information operation to create an impression that people who sit in Pentagon are complete morons to concoct such an amateurish crap and I know that there are still many good professionals out there) one of the American “strengths” there is her network of bases. Reality, of course, is entirely different since it violates the most important strategic postulate of force and resources concentration. Moreover, very many of those bases are within the range of Russia’s conventional strikes. This is the reality US didn’t encounter ever albeit all efforts were made in 1980s to remove RK-55 Granat from Soviet service since everyone knew that at some point this missile will be able to carry not just nuclear but conventional warhead. Today a number of crucial US technologies, such as carriers, which were driving doctrines are becoming or already became obsolete–this is not a pleasant reality to face but that is what happened.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    Force concentration was actually extensively covered in quite a few Russian folk tales. Finger vs fist and one stick vs a bunch of sticks. Talk about folk wisdom.
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  140. @Sergey Krieger
    It is similar to many people thinking that double speed of a car means double impact force when it is actually quadruple. War seems to be not linear on many levels. By the way. You mentioned Iran territory. Obviously closer, more rotation. Is there possibility of stockpiles and using Iran air fields.

    It must be related to aircraft rotation tempo?

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  141. @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I’d think there’s a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    It is definitely possible–totally agree with your assessment.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    It happened before. USA also getting unfair share of world resources solely based upon financial system tailored for this goal and it all tests upon perception of USA military superiority over the rest. If things go that far, I am afraid USA impotence and weakness will be exposed and here we have nukes along with crazies . Bad mix.
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  142. @Andrei Martyanov

    Being a former global power and still operating a thousand military basis around the world, US is much, much more exposed than Russia is.
     
    A very good point. If you read the new Pentagon's "creation"--a handbook on how to fight Russians (I suspect that it is a deliberate information operation to create an impression that people who sit in Pentagon are complete morons to concoct such an amateurish crap and I know that there are still many good professionals out there) one of the American "strengths" there is her network of bases. Reality, of course, is entirely different since it violates the most important strategic postulate of force and resources concentration. Moreover, very many of those bases are within the range of Russia's conventional strikes. This is the reality US didn't encounter ever albeit all efforts were made in 1980s to remove RK-55 Granat from Soviet service since everyone knew that at some point this missile will be able to carry not just nuclear but conventional warhead. Today a number of crucial US technologies, such as carriers, which were driving doctrines are becoming or already became obsolete--this is not a pleasant reality to face but that is what happened.

    Force concentration was actually extensively covered in quite a few Russian folk tales. Finger vs fist and one stick vs a bunch of sticks. Talk about folk wisdom.

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  143. @Andrei Martyanov

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I’d think there’s a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.
     
    It is definitely possible--totally agree with your assessment.

    It happened before. USA also getting unfair share of world resources solely based upon financial system tailored for this goal and it all tests upon perception of USA military superiority over the rest. If things go that far, I am afraid USA impotence and weakness will be exposed and here we have nukes along with crazies . Bad mix.

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  144. Avery says:
    @Ron Unz

    I am talking strictly about CENTCOM’s forward base in Doha, Qatar. Any Russian serviceman in Syria dies as a DIRECT result of US Armed Forces’ actions–US military knows what may follow. It is a classic conventional deterrent and that is why (apart from other serious military-political factors) a much smaller, than anything US has in assets in region, Russian force was able to operate for 23 months to such an effect in Syria. Of course it could be escalation but the message was sent loud and clear already in October 2015.
     
    Well, I can't really judge the issues of military technology involved. But although such a threat would obviously deter any normal and rational country, I'm just not sure in the top decision-makers in America fall into that category. For decades, the US has effectively been run by its Ministry of Propaganda, a situation which has often had severe negative consequences for other countries throughout history.

    On the downside, I could easily see such a successful (retaliatory) attack by Russia causing the US to massively escalate to all-out war, or even quickly go nuclear. That's obviously a very negative scenario for everyone. Perhaps China would inherit control of the world a few decades sooner than otherwise.

    On the other hand, if America did not follow that trajectory and instead effectively accepted such a severe military blow, I'd think there's a pretty good chance the result would be the total collapse of our utterly corrupt and long-despised American Regime in some sort of popular revolution, much like the Russian Imperial government collapsed after the unexpected defeat by Japan in 1905. Under such a tempestuous situation, I could easily envision a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over. But other consequences of such a political upheaval seem impossible to predict.

    So one may project both positive and negative possible outcomes to such a dire military clash, which anyway none of us can influence to any extent whatsoever.

    {…. a widespread populist massacre of a good fraction of our ruling political, financial, intellectual, and journalistic elites, a fate they have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over}

    Unfortunately when populist massacres start, they do not confine themselves to those who ‘ have certainly richly earned for themselves many, many times over’. Mobs are irrational and when blood lust takes over, things spin out of control. Generally in those situations more innocents are killed than parasitic scum.

    Still, sadly, it may come to that.
    When the entrenched parasites and foreign agents fight tooth & nail to nullify the results of the election of POTUS, voters have run out of options. When majority* of voters are not allowed to change the course of the country they live in by peaceful vote, what are they to do?

    ——–
    * Yes,yes I know: The Hildabeast got x millions of popular votes more than Trump. What they fail to note when they claim that is most of it came from the separate Universe of California. If you take California out of the popular vote equation, then Trump wins the rest of the country by 1.4 million votes.

    Plus, county-level vote results clearly show what America’s people want.

    https://blueshift.io/election-2016-county-map.html

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  145. 11 Bravo says:

    Military blogger Thomas Wictor claims in one of his tweet streams that this episode described by the Saker is in fact false.

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  146. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    (I) don’t for a microsecond believe that any serious escalation is possible (from) some minor clash in Syria...
     
    Politically, I can't imagine such a drastic act unless USM did something like attack Latakia. Otherwise, they'll "trade" any dead SF personnel and keep quiet about it. The USM may do something like the former when the scale of their strategic defeat finally dawns on them, but by then everyone in the national security sphere will know.

    Even so, to knock off CENTCOM, the Russians would have to have supreme confidence in their ability to counter any US response. The boldness of Andrei's statement suggests that his information is that they do. If so, we're effectively already in a post-US world...

    Ron, something recently happened to this website. None of the buttons work, nor the comment hover preview, apparently incl "Publish Comment" sometimes. This is on mobile Android, and Win Opera & Firefox via wifi.

    Politically, I can’t imagine such a drastic act unless USM did something like attack Latakia. Otherwise, they’ll “trade” any dead SF personnel and keep quiet about it

    .
    Agree.

    The USM may do something like the former when the scale of their strategic defeat finally dawns on them, but by then everyone in the national security sphere will know.

    Strategic defeat?
    Yeah….

    Even so, to knock off CENTCOM, the Russians would have to have supreme confidence in their ability to counter any US response. The boldness of Andrei’s statement suggests that his information is that they do. If so, we’re effectively already in a post-US world…

    Could be.
    Or Andrei is simply talking pure….
    Anyway.

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  147. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus
    And so it begins?

    Syria - U.S. CentCom Declares War On Russia

    Yesterday three high ranking Russian officers were killed in an "ISIS attack" in eastern-Syrian. It is likely that they were killed by U.S. special forces or insurgents under U.S. special forces control. The incident will be understood as a declaration of war.
     
    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/09/syria-us-centcom-declares-war-on-russia.html#more

    One can still hope this turns out to be false.

    Lieutenant General, top adviser, killed by MORTAR fire.

    Wh….o….oo….aa….h…..

    We’ll just have to get used to this.

    Oceania etc.
    Moving on.

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    • Replies: @hunor
    "we'll just have to get used to this."

    the coward rats did what they do best , backstabbed an honorable fighting man because they can never face a like of him face to face. So they scored one, probably they will score some more , but they have to face it, they lost a war in Syria .
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  148. peterAUS says:

    Re this General, Lieutenant General Valery Asapov, death.

    US/Western military is incompetent, weak, falling apart..blah…blah….
    ISIS is a bunch of fanatics trained/supported by those incompetents.

    Russian military, especially special forces are way,way, above their counterparts in West, blah…blah….

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar……mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.

    Oh, man.
    Just funny.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar……mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.
     
    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn't it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.
     
    You sound really like an Udugov propagandist and I wonder if you became one. You know, who knows what is behind your avatar. You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience. After all, if you say you were in Chechnya, whose side were you on exactly?
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    I thought I told you never to show your face around here again. I wasn't joking. Get your bitch ass out of these comment threads.
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  149. @Andrei Martyanov

    conflict where that many casualties only typically accumulate over the course of several weeks during major battles is so patently ridiculous that it needs no further explication.
     
    Anatoly, google Osipov-Lanchester Equations. then go on to Salvo Model--may help somewhat (I underscore that--somewhat, it still is not going to explain a lot), but no, it does need further explanations because the "math" you operate is basically a sham and has no relations with how operations are planned and executed. I will reiterate my point--Operations' Manuals and Guides (Оперативные Наставления и Руководства) are not for general public's view and in fact constitute one of the most guarded secrets of any serious nation. But then again, we have to only view Russian VKS operational tempo in those 48 hours to get an idea, this is not to speak of what Russian Navy did from Eastern Med. So, yes, sorry--not interested in opinions of Girkin, Smeyan or whoever else you rub your shoulders with--I used to communicate with professionals.

    … google Osipov-Lanchester Equations

    I am familiar with them.

    Now could you please explain how the Lanchester equations (or their naval equivalents) are at all relevant in this scenario?

    (They were developed to calculate attrition in a battle between two conventional – that is, non-stealth, non-guerilla – forces. Now they would be relevant if this was a conventional conflict like the Gulf War, where you had a well-equipped but incompetent Iraqi military in a conventional battle against a far more competent, more technologically advanced US military. In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I am familiar with them.
     
    Evidently not. Since if you would have been really familiar with them you would have known that they, together with the Salvo Model and FERs are in the foundation (what are specifics--it is the whole other discussion and not for open forums) of calculation of the Force (required) aka Naryad Sil--be it for Close Air Support or for sinking of Carrier Battle Group or for land operations. How those calculations (probabilistic in nature) make it then in all kinds of combat documents which become the foundation of fighting doctrines, well... for that people attend military academies and other War Colleges. That applies for all kinds of tactical and operational setups which define such things of how many aircraft you have in boevoye dezhurstvo (immediate combat readiness) on both front and airfield of "jump" (podskoka) to such things as how ammunition is distributed. Let's put it this way--a very uneasy science. I hope you remember this "magic" number (not necessarily correct) of force ratio in COIN? It was calculated somehow, right? Per this:

    In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).
     
    No, Highway of Death estimates of KIAs alone go as high as 10,000. Don't take my word for it. Now if you would tell me how many personnel of ISIS (or whoever was there) would it take to block the whole platoon of MPs plus some Syrian local forces with them--that could be a good start. I point out specifically, I neither confirm nor deny 850 KIAs. I just pointed out to an obvious thing of aviation working there, of the airdrop of SSOs on Mi-35s and of the fact of V.Novgord launching 5 3M14s. I can guarantee you that those 3M14s went for the very high value targets. So, I can totally see jihadists' KIAs in hundreds that day. How many? I don't know. As per "turkey shootings", you have internet, I recon, you can easily find many videos of ISIS (JAN etc.) caravans being precisely what you just stated--turkeys, or sitting ducks.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF
     
    Just one example:

    https://youtu.be/OuvkzFCu9eU

    39 trucks about one company (120 jihadists plus-minus) couple of minutes, done deal. Guess how those blocking jihadist forces got to MPs platoon and how many were there in the area? I don't know the number but I can guarantee you that no fewer than 200, probably more.
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  150. @peterAUS
    Re this General, Lieutenant General Valery Asapov, death.

    US/Western military is incompetent, weak, falling apart..blah...blah....
    ISIS is a bunch of fanatics trained/supported by those incompetents.

    Russian military, especially special forces are way,way, above their counterparts in West, blah...blah....

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar......mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.

    Oh, man.
    Just funny.

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar……mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.

    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn’t it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.

    You sound really like an Udugov propagandist and I wonder if you became one. You know, who knows what is behind your avatar. You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience. After all, if you say you were in Chechnya, whose side were you on exactly?

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn’t it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?
     
    Thank you for making my point, actually.
    Patton survived all that. This fellow didn't.
    THAT is important (I guess.....).

    Which brings up to the next:


    You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience.
     
    On the contrary mate....on the contrary.

    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.

    See, that's the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.

    There is a "way" how to employ mortars.
    There is a "way" how to move around battlefield. On top of that there is a "way" how to move a senior officer around battlefield.

    When those "ways" intersect resulting in death of a SENIOR officer that, for professionals, tells a lot.
    A....LOT.

    As for my experience, nice try.
    Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?

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  151. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Johnny Rico

    Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.
     
    Wow! That escalated quickly.

    First it is an accusation by a Russian general and a paragraph later it is apparently a fact.

    Evidence not required. You are worse than the Pentagon.

    So much for exercising caution and restraint.

    Lady doth protest too much. The US follows the commands sent to the US (captured) brains by the connoisseurs of the Golan Heights and Syrian oil fields.
    http://news.antiwar.com/2016/06/21/israeli-intel-chief-we-dont-want-isis-defeated-in-syria/ “In a speech at the Herzliya Conference, Israel’s military intelligence chief, Major General Herzi Halevy, took Israel’s long-standing position that it “prefers ISIS” over the Syrian government to a whole ‘nother level, declaring openly that Israel does not want to see ISIS defeated in the war:

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/yaalon-i-would-prefer-islamic-state-to-iran-in-syria/

    “In Syria, if the choice is between Iran and the Islamic State, I choose the Islamic State. They don’t have the capabilities that Iran has,” Ya’alon [Defense Minister of Israek] told a conference held by the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/israel-grants-golan-heights-oil-license-2013-2

    “Israel has granted a U.S. company the first license to explore for oil and gas in the occupied Golan Heights… A local subsidiary of the New York-listed company Genie Energy — which is advised by former vice president Dick Cheney and whose shareholders include Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch — will now have exclusive rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the Golan Heights. That geographic location will likely prove controversial. Israel seized the Golan Heights in the Six-Day War in 1967 and annexed the territory in 1981. Its administration of the area — which is not recognized by international law — has been mostly peaceful until the Syrian civil war broke out”

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  152. @peterAUS
    Re this General, Lieutenant General Valery Asapov, death.

    US/Western military is incompetent, weak, falling apart..blah...blah....
    ISIS is a bunch of fanatics trained/supported by those incompetents.

    Russian military, especially special forces are way,way, above their counterparts in West, blah...blah....

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar......mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.

    Oh, man.
    Just funny.

    I thought I told you never to show your face around here again. I wasn’t joking. Get your bitch ass out of these comment threads.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Ah....

    Now I got why you guys got fuc*&d over re "election".
    No wonder.

    Thank you.
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  153. peterAUS says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    And, then, a Lieutenant General, top adviser in theater, is killed by MORTAR fire.
    Mortar……mortar bomb. Fragments from a mortar bomb.
     
    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn't it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?

    ISIS is being blown apart, Russian/Assad team is owning them..victory has been achieved.
     
    You sound really like an Udugov propagandist and I wonder if you became one. You know, who knows what is behind your avatar. You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience. After all, if you say you were in Chechnya, whose side were you on exactly?

    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn’t it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?

    Thank you for making my point, actually.
    Patton survived all that. This fellow didn’t.
    THAT is important (I guess…..).

    Which brings up to the next:

    You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience.

    On the contrary mate….on the contrary.

    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.

    See, that’s the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.

    There is a “way” how to employ mortars.
    There is a “way” how to move around battlefield. On top of that there is a “way” how to move a senior officer around battlefield.

    When those “ways” intersect resulting in death of a SENIOR officer that, for professionals, tells a lot.
    A….LOT.

    As for my experience, nice try.
    Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    See, that’s the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.
     
    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is "moving", sure--go impress college girls. Per "battlefield" I can tell you some things which would be very unexpected for you.

    Thank you for making my point, actually. Patton survived all that. This fellow didn’t. THAT is important (I guess…..).
     
    Important in you showing your complete ignorance--who Lt.General McNair was you, obviously, never heard before. Nor have you heard of General Buckner. So, for a "combat veteran" you claim you are, you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History in any Obshevoiskovoye Uchilishe and I knew many graduates of those (such as BVVOKU, some of them with real serious combat experience). So far you are blowing hot air.

    As for my experience, nice try. Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?
     
    What try? You sound like a typical Kavkaz-center bot. Again, dude

    1. It is up to you to post or not post your resume, albeit I do not make secret out of mine. You decide.
    2. I don't need your "combat" consultations since my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya. You are not going to impress me.


    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.
     
    You do not have a foundation for passing judgement on the issues of which you have no clue. Your incompetence just shines through. Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice. If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a "broken one" and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.
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  154. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... google Osipov-Lanchester Equations
     
    I am familiar with them.

    Now could you please explain how the Lanchester equations (or their naval equivalents) are at all relevant in this scenario?

    (They were developed to calculate attrition in a battle between two conventional - that is, non-stealth, non-guerilla - forces. Now they would be relevant if this was a conventional conflict like the Gulf War, where you had a well-equipped but incompetent Iraqi military in a conventional battle against a far more competent, more technologically advanced US military. In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn't apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).

    I am familiar with them.

    Evidently not. Since if you would have been really familiar with them you would have known that they, together with the Salvo Model and FERs are in the foundation (what are specifics–it is the whole other discussion and not for open forums) of calculation of the Force (required) aka Naryad Sil–be it for Close Air Support or for sinking of Carrier Battle Group or for land operations. How those calculations (probabilistic in nature) make it then in all kinds of combat documents which become the foundation of fighting doctrines, well… for that people attend military academies and other War Colleges. That applies for all kinds of tactical and operational setups which define such things of how many aircraft you have in boevoye dezhurstvo (immediate combat readiness) on both front and airfield of “jump” (podskoka) to such things as how ammunition is distributed. Let’s put it this way–a very uneasy science. I hope you remember this “magic” number (not necessarily correct) of force ratio in COIN? It was calculated somehow, right? Per this:

    In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).

    No, Highway of Death estimates of KIAs alone go as high as 10,000. Don’t take my word for it. Now if you would tell me how many personnel of ISIS (or whoever was there) would it take to block the whole platoon of MPs plus some Syrian local forces with them–that could be a good start. I point out specifically, I neither confirm nor deny 850 KIAs. I just pointed out to an obvious thing of aviation working there, of the airdrop of SSOs on Mi-35s and of the fact of V.Novgord launching 5 3M14s. I can guarantee you that those 3M14s went for the very high value targets. So, I can totally see jihadists’ KIAs in hundreds that day. How many? I don’t know. As per “turkey shootings”, you have internet, I recon, you can easily find many videos of ISIS (JAN etc.) caravans being precisely what you just stated–turkeys, or sitting ducks.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Nice info.

    A question, though.

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    Not some video...no...no....

    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?

    Simple question.

    Ah, yes, before you ask:
    Yes, I have seen all that, mortars wise, both in exercises, and in real.

    Oh, BTW, it also included speaking with people in factory that was making them (and their ammo), with repair and maintenance people all the way up to unit firing, and back.

    See the difference here?

    You are making a fundamental mistake here, IMHO.
    Not that it matters for general readers here, but, for that minority in the know it ....dampens... your posts.

    It's theory.....

    More importantly, you dismiss all which is outside of that, comfortable, theory.

    Maybe...just maybe.....you are doing "your own side" a disservice here?

    Some people,actually, like that. And those aren't your friends.

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  155. peterAUS says:
    @Intelligent Dasein
    I thought I told you never to show your face around here again. I wasn't joking. Get your bitch ass out of these comment threads.

    Ah….

    Now I got why you guys got fuc*&d over re “election”.
    No wonder.

    Thank you.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    so, what is it like working with the chechen coalition?

    was it fun to chop up dead russians? its kinda funny how they try to sew together them, like dolls, the silly people, no?

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  156. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Israel wants the Golan Heights, by any means; World War III would be all right for the “chosen:” http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/09/syria-us-centcom-declares-war-on-russia.html#comments
    Voltaire was right that Jews could become the greatest threat to humanity.
    It is amusing to see the CIA jumping as high as the Bibi-land’ deciders order to. Or perhaps, there is no light of day between the CIA and Bibi-land anymore.

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  157. @Anatoly Karlin

    ... google Osipov-Lanchester Equations
     
    I am familiar with them.

    Now could you please explain how the Lanchester equations (or their naval equivalents) are at all relevant in this scenario?

    (They were developed to calculate attrition in a battle between two conventional - that is, non-stealth, non-guerilla - forces. Now they would be relevant if this was a conventional conflict like the Gulf War, where you had a well-equipped but incompetent Iraqi military in a conventional battle against a far more competent, more technologically advanced US military. In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn't apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).

    This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF

    Just one example:

    39 trucks about one company (120 jihadists plus-minus) couple of minutes, done deal. Guess how those blocking jihadist forces got to MPs platoon and how many were there in the area? I don’t know the number but I can guarantee you that no fewer than 200, probably more.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    Beautiful vid.
    Great background music.

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?

    (I know the vid says, MOD.GOV.SY, but I didn't know SyAF has advanced jets that can carry out that type of a strike: I thought all they had are some ancient MiG21s and such)

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  158. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @peterAUS
    Ah....

    Now I got why you guys got fuc*&d over re "election".
    No wonder.

    Thank you.

    so, what is it like working with the chechen coalition?

    was it fun to chop up dead russians? its kinda funny how they try to sew together them, like dolls, the silly people, no?

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    So, what is it like working with Syrians there, as the Russian Lieutenant General bodyguard?

    Was it fun to get "marked" by mortar?

    It's kinda funny to boast about your own performance after a such event.
    A bit silly, don't you think?
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  159. Avery says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF
     
    Just one example:

    https://youtu.be/OuvkzFCu9eU

    39 trucks about one company (120 jihadists plus-minus) couple of minutes, done deal. Guess how those blocking jihadist forces got to MPs platoon and how many were there in the area? I don't know the number but I can guarantee you that no fewer than 200, probably more.

    Beautiful vid.
    Great background music.

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?

    (I know the vid says, MOD.GOV.SY, but I didn’t know SyAF has advanced jets that can carry out that type of a strike: I thought all they had are some ancient MiG21s and such)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?
     
    Yes, most likely it is VKS. But Syrians do use Russian combat footage for their propaganda purposes.
    , @Intelligent Dasein
    The footage is from a surveillance drone not from the attacking aircraft, and it would look exactly the same whether the bombing was carried out by an F-35, a B-29, or the Red Baron with a sack full of potato-mashers. It's just IR footage of an explosion, that's all.
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  160. peterAUS says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    I am familiar with them.
     
    Evidently not. Since if you would have been really familiar with them you would have known that they, together with the Salvo Model and FERs are in the foundation (what are specifics--it is the whole other discussion and not for open forums) of calculation of the Force (required) aka Naryad Sil--be it for Close Air Support or for sinking of Carrier Battle Group or for land operations. How those calculations (probabilistic in nature) make it then in all kinds of combat documents which become the foundation of fighting doctrines, well... for that people attend military academies and other War Colleges. That applies for all kinds of tactical and operational setups which define such things of how many aircraft you have in boevoye dezhurstvo (immediate combat readiness) on both front and airfield of "jump" (podskoka) to such things as how ammunition is distributed. Let's put it this way--a very uneasy science. I hope you remember this "magic" number (not necessarily correct) of force ratio in COIN? It was calculated somehow, right? Per this:

    In fact in that very war you did actually have several cases of the USAF inflicting around 1,000 KIA in a single day of bombing on masses of retreating Iraqi Army soldiers moving in straight lines on an open way highway. This doesn’t apply in the least to the Syrian Civil War; had the rebels or ISIS been in the habit of providing such turkey-shooting opportunities to the SyAF (USAF, RuAF, etc.), the war would have been over within months).
     
    No, Highway of Death estimates of KIAs alone go as high as 10,000. Don't take my word for it. Now if you would tell me how many personnel of ISIS (or whoever was there) would it take to block the whole platoon of MPs plus some Syrian local forces with them--that could be a good start. I point out specifically, I neither confirm nor deny 850 KIAs. I just pointed out to an obvious thing of aviation working there, of the airdrop of SSOs on Mi-35s and of the fact of V.Novgord launching 5 3M14s. I can guarantee you that those 3M14s went for the very high value targets. So, I can totally see jihadists' KIAs in hundreds that day. How many? I don't know. As per "turkey shootings", you have internet, I recon, you can easily find many videos of ISIS (JAN etc.) caravans being precisely what you just stated--turkeys, or sitting ducks.

    Nice info.

    A question, though.

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    Not some video…no…no….

    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?

    Simple question.

    Ah, yes, before you ask:
    Yes, I have seen all that, mortars wise, both in exercises, and in real.

    Oh, BTW, it also included speaking with people in factory that was making them (and their ammo), with repair and maintenance people all the way up to unit firing, and back.

    See the difference here?

    You are making a fundamental mistake here, IMHO.
    Not that it matters for general readers here, but, for that minority in the know it ….dampens… your posts.

    It’s theory…..

    More importantly, you dismiss all which is outside of that, comfortable, theory.

    Maybe…just maybe…..you are doing “your own side” a disservice here?

    Some people,actually, like that. And those aren’t your friends.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?
     
    I am answering really not for you and I am pretty much done talking to you, but:

    1. Yes.
    2. Yes.

    I can tell you even more, I have been both under hostile fire and, sadly (and luckily), under friendlies and what is when AK-230 shoots at you--not a pleasant experience. Since you are a bot but you do not know that from the first year through the very end all naval academies in USSR had a subject called Naval Infantry Tactics and Ognevaya Podgotovka. Ours was in a separate brigade in Sevastopol (namely Kazachya) so I handled so much live ammo in my life that i see no point in explaining to you feelings of, say, T-62 rolling over you or commanding platoon in shore assault and what Saturn is.

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  161. 11 Bravo says:

    More from Thomas Wictor about how Russia is losing in Syria. This guy seems to be 180 degrees off in his assessment versus the Saker.

    Which one is closer to the truth?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Pavlo
    Thomas Wictor is mentally defective.

    If you couldn't figure that out from reading his twitter history, then I've got some bad news for you.
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  162. @peterAUS

    Yes, Chernyahovsky was also killed by fragments of shell. Wasn’t it you who a week or so ago was talking about being at the front-lines, KPs you know all this Combat Manuals mambo-jumbo? You know, Patton controlling troops etc.? Any recollection?
     
    Thank you for making my point, actually.
    Patton survived all that. This fellow didn't.
    THAT is important (I guess.....).

    Which brings up to the next:


    You certainly sound less and less as someone with even a modicum of serious military experience.
     
    On the contrary mate....on the contrary.

    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.

    See, that's the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.

    There is a "way" how to employ mortars.
    There is a "way" how to move around battlefield. On top of that there is a "way" how to move a senior officer around battlefield.

    When those "ways" intersect resulting in death of a SENIOR officer that, for professionals, tells a lot.
    A....LOT.

    As for my experience, nice try.
    Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?

    See, that’s the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.

    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is “moving”, sure–go impress college girls. Per “battlefield” I can tell you some things which would be very unexpected for you.

    Thank you for making my point, actually. Patton survived all that. This fellow didn’t. THAT is important (I guess…..).

    Important in you showing your complete ignorance–who Lt.General McNair was you, obviously, never heard before. Nor have you heard of General Buckner. So, for a “combat veteran” you claim you are, you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History in any Obshevoiskovoye Uchilishe and I knew many graduates of those (such as BVVOKU, some of them with real serious combat experience). So far you are blowing hot air.

    As for my experience, nice try. Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?

    What try? You sound like a typical Kavkaz-center bot. Again, dude

    1. It is up to you to post or not post your resume, albeit I do not make secret out of mine. You decide.
    2. I don’t need your “combat” consultations since my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya. You are not going to impress me.

    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.

    You do not have a foundation for passing judgement on the issues of which you have no clue. Your incompetence just shines through. Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice. If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a “broken one” and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Wait...wait....

    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is “moving”, sure–go impress college girls.
     
    Are you saying that the Russian Lieutenant General was killed by mortar fire on static Command Post?

    Static......Command....Post?
    With....MORTAR...fire?

    Are you fucking serious?

    If that really happened it's definitely much worse than I thought.
    Just crazy.

    Crazy incompetence I mean.

    O.K...
    NOBODY is that incompetent.

    So.....really...how did he get killed then?
    Syrians sold him out?
    His own side sold him out?
    Made some bad enemies in Moscow?

    Pray tell us.
    , @Daniel Chieh

    If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a “broken one” and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.
     
    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?
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  163. @Avery
    Beautiful vid.
    Great background music.

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?

    (I know the vid says, MOD.GOV.SY, but I didn't know SyAF has advanced jets that can carry out that type of a strike: I thought all they had are some ancient MiG21s and such)

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?

    Yes, most likely it is VKS. But Syrians do use Russian combat footage for their propaganda purposes.

    Read More
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  164. @Avery
    Beautiful vid.
    Great background music.

    But surely this is RuAF, not SyAF: Yes?

    (I know the vid says, MOD.GOV.SY, but I didn't know SyAF has advanced jets that can carry out that type of a strike: I thought all they had are some ancient MiG21s and such)

    The footage is from a surveillance drone not from the attacking aircraft, and it would look exactly the same whether the bombing was carried out by an F-35, a B-29, or the Red Baron with a sack full of potato-mashers. It’s just IR footage of an explosion, that’s all.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    How do you know?

    I am no expert, but to me it clearly appears to be vids from the attacking jet, not a drone, given the synchronous timing and the aspect of the view.
    Maybe [Andrei Martyanov] can clarify.

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  165. peterAUS says:
    @Anonymous
    so, what is it like working with the chechen coalition?

    was it fun to chop up dead russians? its kinda funny how they try to sew together them, like dolls, the silly people, no?

    So, what is it like working with Syrians there, as the Russian Lieutenant General bodyguard?

    Was it fun to get “marked” by mortar?

    It’s kinda funny to boast about your own performance after a such event.
    A bit silly, don’t you think?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    good to know which side you were on, no wonder you were rooting for the headchoppers. makes sense too why you want us around. all makes sense.
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  166. peterAUS says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    See, that’s the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.
     
    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is "moving", sure--go impress college girls. Per "battlefield" I can tell you some things which would be very unexpected for you.

    Thank you for making my point, actually. Patton survived all that. This fellow didn’t. THAT is important (I guess…..).
     
    Important in you showing your complete ignorance--who Lt.General McNair was you, obviously, never heard before. Nor have you heard of General Buckner. So, for a "combat veteran" you claim you are, you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History in any Obshevoiskovoye Uchilishe and I knew many graduates of those (such as BVVOKU, some of them with real serious combat experience). So far you are blowing hot air.

    As for my experience, nice try. Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?
     
    What try? You sound like a typical Kavkaz-center bot. Again, dude

    1. It is up to you to post or not post your resume, albeit I do not make secret out of mine. You decide.
    2. I don't need your "combat" consultations since my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya. You are not going to impress me.


    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.
     
    You do not have a foundation for passing judgement on the issues of which you have no clue. Your incompetence just shines through. Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice. If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a "broken one" and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.

    Wait…wait….

    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is “moving”, sure–go impress college girls.

    Are you saying that the Russian Lieutenant General was killed by mortar fire on static Command Post?

    Static……Command….Post?
    With….MORTAR…fire?

    Are you fucking serious?

    If that really happened it’s definitely much worse than I thought.
    Just crazy.

    Crazy incompetence I mean.

    O.K…
    NOBODY is that incompetent.

    So…..really…how did he get killed then?
    Syrians sold him out?
    His own side sold him out?
    Made some bad enemies in Moscow?

    Pray tell us.

    Read More
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  167. The footage is from a surveillance drone not from the attacking aircraft, and it would look exactly the same whether the bombing was carried out by an F-35, a B-29, or the Red Baron with a sack full of potato-mashers. It’s just IR footage of an explosion, that’s all.

    Documentation of training or combat use of weapons is done in what is known as accurate privyazka (tie in, positioning) which is usually geographic coordinates of strike (plus bearing-azimuth, range), so there is a very good documented way of checking the authenticity of a footage. So, it is not just footage of some explosions, it becomes a video registration of weapons combat use.

    Read More
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  168. Avery says:
    @Intelligent Dasein
    The footage is from a surveillance drone not from the attacking aircraft, and it would look exactly the same whether the bombing was carried out by an F-35, a B-29, or the Red Baron with a sack full of potato-mashers. It's just IR footage of an explosion, that's all.

    How do you know?

    I am no expert, but to me it clearly appears to be vids from the attacking jet, not a drone, given the synchronous timing and the aspect of the view.
    Maybe [Andrei Martyanov] can clarify.

    Read More
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  169. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @peterAUS
    So, what is it like working with Syrians there, as the Russian Lieutenant General bodyguard?

    Was it fun to get "marked" by mortar?

    It's kinda funny to boast about your own performance after a such event.
    A bit silly, don't you think?

    good to know which side you were on, no wonder you were rooting for the headchoppers. makes sense too why you want us around. all makes sense.

    Read More
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  170. @peterAUS
    Nice info.

    A question, though.

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    Not some video...no...no....

    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?

    Simple question.

    Ah, yes, before you ask:
    Yes, I have seen all that, mortars wise, both in exercises, and in real.

    Oh, BTW, it also included speaking with people in factory that was making them (and their ammo), with repair and maintenance people all the way up to unit firing, and back.

    See the difference here?

    You are making a fundamental mistake here, IMHO.
    Not that it matters for general readers here, but, for that minority in the know it ....dampens... your posts.

    It's theory.....

    More importantly, you dismiss all which is outside of that, comfortable, theory.

    Maybe...just maybe.....you are doing "your own side" a disservice here?

    Some people,actually, like that. And those aren't your friends.

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?

    I am answering really not for you and I am pretty much done talking to you, but:

    1. Yes.
    2. Yes.

    I can tell you even more, I have been both under hostile fire and, sadly (and luckily), under friendlies and what is when AK-230 shoots at you–not a pleasant experience. Since you are a bot but you do not know that from the first year through the very end all naval academies in USSR had a subject called Naval Infantry Tactics and Ognevaya Podgotovka. Ours was in a separate brigade in Sevastopol (namely Kazachya) so I handled so much live ammo in my life that i see no point in explaining to you feelings of, say, T-62 rolling over you or commanding platoon in shore assault and what Saturn is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Hey, Andrei, may I make a suggestion?
    Based on

    you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History
    my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya
    Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice.
     
    I’d like to call you Professor, if you don’t mind.

    Professor, although you appear to have a decent (theoretical and staff analyst type) knowledge of certain things military, it would be wise to remember that the real expertise comes from talent, theory and practice.

    It would be prudent to sometimes prefer a scrap of info coming from a low trooper and disregard a positon paper from a three star general. We spoke about this before.

    "Professors" tend to disregard little details and focus on big issues.
    Little details: quality of boots/surface; being overweight/unfit/slow; shitty discipline on the post/unit; tired/exhausted from all that shit around.
    A lot of small things.

    Maybe….just maybe………slippery boots could’ve caused this death. The General stepped out of the command post and then heard IT coming, tried to dash back into cover, slipped and got it.

    Or, he was just a bit too slow (age, weight) in his reaction when ducking/going to ground.
    Or just too tired to hear the incoming.
    Or, didn’t hear it because Syrians were just yelling something.
    Or….a junior officer/senior NCO didn’t check the overhead cover.

    A….lot…….of….things……”strategic” minds tend to ignore.

    Well….he got killed by fucking mortar…..not an advance cruise missile.

    But, still, more I think about this.....something doesn't add up.
    Pawn sacrifice....or....sold out.
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  171. @Andrei Martyanov

    See, that’s the difference between a guy who was actually moving around battlefield and those who read about it.
     
    Well, if being on KP, which was confirmed, that is being in static position is "moving", sure--go impress college girls. Per "battlefield" I can tell you some things which would be very unexpected for you.

    Thank you for making my point, actually. Patton survived all that. This fellow didn’t. THAT is important (I guess…..).
     
    Important in you showing your complete ignorance--who Lt.General McNair was you, obviously, never heard before. Nor have you heard of General Buckner. So, for a "combat veteran" you claim you are, you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History in any Obshevoiskovoye Uchilishe and I knew many graduates of those (such as BVVOKU, some of them with real serious combat experience). So far you are blowing hot air.

    As for my experience, nice try. Would you like my resume posted here? Some photos as well?
     
    What try? You sound like a typical Kavkaz-center bot. Again, dude

    1. It is up to you to post or not post your resume, albeit I do not make secret out of mine. You decide.
    2. I don't need your "combat" consultations since my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya. You are not going to impress me.


    Based EXACTLY on my combat experience I am not impressed at all by Russian performance here.
     
    You do not have a foundation for passing judgement on the issues of which you have no clue. Your incompetence just shines through. Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice. If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a "broken one" and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.

    If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a “broken one” and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.

    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?
     
    Yes, some were from POWs. Converted to Islam and voila.
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  172. peterAUS says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Have YOU ever seen that, with your own eyes/binoculars/any optics/any real time display?
    1. In exercise?
    2. In REAL?
     
    I am answering really not for you and I am pretty much done talking to you, but:

    1. Yes.
    2. Yes.

    I can tell you even more, I have been both under hostile fire and, sadly (and luckily), under friendlies and what is when AK-230 shoots at you--not a pleasant experience. Since you are a bot but you do not know that from the first year through the very end all naval academies in USSR had a subject called Naval Infantry Tactics and Ognevaya Podgotovka. Ours was in a separate brigade in Sevastopol (namely Kazachya) so I handled so much live ammo in my life that i see no point in explaining to you feelings of, say, T-62 rolling over you or commanding platoon in shore assault and what Saturn is.

    Hey, Andrei, may I make a suggestion?
    Based on

    you are really weak on the even basic course of military history which was and is taught in basic course of Military History
    my circle of people whom I knew and know had experiences, including in serious command from Afghanistan to Chechnya
    Just give me the name of your Alma Mater and year of graduation, that may suffice.

    I’d like to call you Professor, if you don’t mind.

    Professor, although you appear to have a decent (theoretical and staff analyst type) knowledge of certain things military, it would be wise to remember that the real expertise comes from talent, theory and practice.

    It would be prudent to sometimes prefer a scrap of info coming from a low trooper and disregard a positon paper from a three star general. We spoke about this before.

    “Professors” tend to disregard little details and focus on big issues.
    Little details: quality of boots/surface; being overweight/unfit/slow; shitty discipline on the post/unit; tired/exhausted from all that shit around.
    A lot of small things.

    Maybe….just maybe………slippery boots could’ve caused this death. The General stepped out of the command post and then heard IT coming, tried to dash back into cover, slipped and got it.

    Or, he was just a bit too slow (age, weight) in his reaction when ducking/going to ground.
    Or just too tired to hear the incoming.
    Or, didn’t hear it because Syrians were just yelling something.
    Or….a junior officer/senior NCO didn’t check the overhead cover.

    A….lot…….of….things……”strategic” minds tend to ignore.

    Well….he got killed by fucking mortar…..not an advance cruise missile.

    But, still, more I think about this…..something doesn’t add up.
    Pawn sacrifice….or….sold out.

    Read More
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  173. On behalf of Ordinary People in the United States I’d like to comment on ongoing operations by U.S. Special Operations Forces (S.O.F.) in Syria.

    The “sudden mortar shelling” by US militants is what the U.S. Special Forces (S.F.) and other U.S. Army forces call a “hasty ambush.” They train for it quite extensively. The murder of a Lieutenant-General was not a coincidence for another reason. Springing this hasty ambush on the General means that U.S. Special Forces are targeting Russian officers and therefore, the Defense Intelligence Agency as well as Military Intelligence are going after Russian officers.

    I hope the Russian Defense Ministry recognizes the sophisticated tactics in the murder of their Lieutenant-General.

    “`As a result of a sudden mortar shelling by IS militants, Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov was fatally wounded by an exploding shell,’ the MoD said.”

    “Russian lieutenant-general killed in ISIS shelling near Deir ez-Zor, Syria – MoD” Published time: [Sunday] 24 Sep, 2017 18:47″ ——————————————–

    “General Asapov was serving as one of Russia’s military advisers in Syria. On Sunday [24 September 2017, the Russian Defense Ministry said he was fatally wounded by an exploding shell in a sudden mortar attack by IS terrorists."

    "On Sunday [24 September 2017], the Russian Ministry of Defense published aerial images which they say show US Army special forces equipment located north of the Syrian town of Deir ez-Zor, where IS militants are deployed.”

    “The US troops do not face any `resistance from the ISIS militants,’ while their positions have no screening patrol, which could indicate that they `feel absolutely safe’ in the area, the ministry said.”

    “However, the US Central Command has denied the accusations in a written statement to RT.”

    “`The allegations are false. For operational security, we do not comment on ongoing operations or the current positions of Coalition personnel and our partner forces,’ the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve said.”

    “Death of Russian general in Syria is result of US hypocrisy – Moscow” Published time: [Monday] 25 Sep, 2017 13:14 https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/ ——————————————————–

    “The troops of the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish militia that receives support from the US military, have twice attacked positions of the Syrian Arab Army in the Deir ez-Zor governorate with mortar and rocket fire, according to the Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov.”

    “Russia unequivocally told the commanders of US forces in Al Udeid Airbase (Qatar) that it will not tolerate any shelling from the areas where the SDF are stationed,” Konashenkov said, adding that the attacks put at risk Russian military advisers embedded with Syrian government troops.”

    “Fire from positions in regions [controlled by the SDF] will be suppressed by all means necessary,” he stressed.”

    “Russia warns US it will strike back if militia attacks in Syria don’t end” Published time: [Thursday] 21 Sep, 2017 07:16 https://www.rt.com/news/404040-russian-mod-sdf-syria/ —————————————————–

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I hope the Russian Defense Ministry recognizes the sophisticated tactics in the murder of their Lieutenant-General.
     
    There is nothing "sophisticated" in this tactics. Classic fire ambush based on

    1. good information (and coordinates) of a location (could be traitor or US Forces who provided it);
    2. Placing one or several camouflaged mortar teams and
    3. Since we do not know exactly all circumstances of what happened, just all necessary ballistics which is calculated today by apps on cellphones. For those who dealt with ballistic tables and analogue ballistic computers (like yours truly) it is rather not that difficult to imagine.

    Another matter, we don't know all facts. I would love to hear what kind of chatter is now in Russian-American communications channel. We have to wait until more information becomes known.
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  174. peterAUS says:

    What’s wrong with you people?

    Can’t you do decent propaganda?

    The “sudden mortar shelling” by US militants is what the U.S. Special Forces (S.F.) and other U.S. Army forces call a “hasty ambush.” They train for it quite extensively.

    Just fuc*&ng Google, in five seconds, for total amateurs:

    https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/7-8/ch3.htm

    3-18. HASTY AMBUSH

    And

    On behalf of Ordinary People in the United States

    Communists were doing this better…..

    Sometimes I get an impression that this crudeness and ineptness are actually deliberate.
    It feels as done by Rusophobes.

    Amazing.

    Read More
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  175. @Ha'ashkee OghaChruithne
    On behalf of Ordinary People in the United States I'd like to comment on ongoing operations by U.S. Special Operations Forces (S.O.F.) in Syria.

    The "sudden mortar shelling" by US militants is what the U.S. Special Forces (S.F.) and other U.S. Army forces call a "hasty ambush." They train for it quite extensively. The murder of a Lieutenant-General was not a coincidence for another reason. Springing this hasty ambush on the General means that U.S. Special Forces are targeting Russian officers and therefore, the Defense Intelligence Agency as well as Military Intelligence are going after Russian officers.

    I hope the Russian Defense Ministry recognizes the sophisticated tactics in the murder of their Lieutenant-General.

    "`As a result of a sudden mortar shelling by IS militants, Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov was fatally wounded by an exploding shell,' the MoD said."

    "Russian lieutenant-general killed in ISIS shelling near Deir ez-Zor, Syria - MoD" Published time: [Sunday] 24 Sep, 2017 18:47" --------------------------------------------

    "General Asapov was serving as one of Russia’s military advisers in Syria. On Sunday [24 September 2017, the Russian Defense Ministry said he was fatally wounded by an exploding shell in a sudden mortar attack by IS terrorists."

    "On Sunday [24 September 2017], the Russian Ministry of Defense published aerial images which they say show US Army special forces equipment located north of the Syrian town of Deir ez-Zor, where IS militants are deployed."

    "The US troops do not face any `resistance from the ISIS militants,' while their positions have no screening patrol, which could indicate that they `feel absolutely safe' in the area, the ministry said."

    "However, the US Central Command has denied the accusations in a written statement to RT."

    “`The allegations are false. For operational security, we do not comment on ongoing operations or the current positions of Coalition personnel and our partner forces,' the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve said."

    "Death of Russian general in Syria is result of US hypocrisy – Moscow" Published time: [Monday] 25 Sep, 2017 13:14 https://www.rt.com/news/404510-syria-russia-general-usa/ --------------------------------------------------------

    "The troops of the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish militia that receives support from the US military, have twice attacked positions of the Syrian Arab Army in the Deir ez-Zor governorate with mortar and rocket fire, according to the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov."

    “Russia unequivocally told the commanders of US forces in Al Udeid Airbase (Qatar) that it will not tolerate any shelling from the areas where the SDF are stationed,” Konashenkov said, adding that the attacks put at risk Russian military advisers embedded with Syrian government troops."

    “Fire from positions in regions [controlled by the SDF] will be suppressed by all means necessary,” he stressed."

    "Russia warns US it will strike back if militia attacks in Syria don’t end" Published time: [Thursday] 21 Sep, 2017 07:16 https://www.rt.com/news/404040-russian-mod-sdf-syria/ -----------------------------------------------------

    I hope the Russian Defense Ministry recognizes the sophisticated tactics in the murder of their Lieutenant-General.

    There is nothing “sophisticated” in this tactics. Classic fire ambush based on

    1. good information (and coordinates) of a location (could be traitor or US Forces who provided it);
    2. Placing one or several camouflaged mortar teams and
    3. Since we do not know exactly all circumstances of what happened, just all necessary ballistics which is calculated today by apps on cellphones. For those who dealt with ballistic tables and analogue ballistic computers (like yours truly) it is rather not that difficult to imagine.

    Another matter, we don’t know all facts. I would love to hear what kind of chatter is now in Russian-American communications channel. We have to wait until more information becomes known.

    Read More
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  176. @Daniel Chieh

    If you Russian (I doubt it) you maybe a “broken one” and collaborator, but most likely you are some Caucasus derived ethnicity with a grudge.
     
    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?

    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?

    Yes, some were from POWs. Converted to Islam and voila.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Talha
    I heard about this in Round 1 when Dudayev was leading. Did this happen during Round 2 when the crazies took over?

    Peace.
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  177. Syria is a heart-breaker for Hope and Change under Trump.

    There’s just no reason to be in Syria, and plenty of reasons for getting out.

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  178. Pavlo says:
    @11 Bravo
    More from Thomas Wictor about how Russia is losing in Syria. This guy seems to be 180 degrees off in his assessment versus the Saker.

    Which one is closer to the truth?

    Thomas Wictor is mentally defective.

    If you couldn’t figure that out from reading his twitter history, then I’ve got some bad news for you.

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  179. utu says:
    @JL
    In Andrei's first article here at Unz, you claimed you were taking bets that Putin would be out of power by the end of summer. Yet, here you are, comically attacking his credibility on Russian military affairs. What's even more amusing is how you were wondering out loud how it is that Putin was allowed to get away with his Syria gambit. Andrei is explaining it to you here, in no uncertain terms, and yet you condescendingly attack him for it. Your own lack of credibility has been solidly confirmed. Andrei's, not so much.

    Yes, I know and I remember and I do not deny it! I was wrong. It was not really a prediction; it was just an emotional outburst on my part that all was lost. The summer ended few days ago and Pootie-Poot is still around for which I am very glad.

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  180. Talha says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    There were ethnic Russians that fought on the side of the separatists?
     
    Yes, some were from POWs. Converted to Islam and voila.

    I heard about this in Round 1 when Dudayev was leading. Did this happen during Round 2 when the crazies took over?

    Peace.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I heard about this in Round 1 when Dudayev was leading. Did this happen during Round 2 when the crazies took over?
     
    I don't have numerical data but by second go, I would assume, numbers would be very very low. A handful. Do not also forget that there were Ukrainians, Baltic people who were there and, as some posts above clearly show, they have their axes to grind.
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  181. hunor says:
    @peterAUS
    Lieutenant General, top adviser, killed by MORTAR fire.

    Wh....o....oo....aa....h.....

    We'll just have to get used to this.

    Oceania etc.
    Moving on.

    “we’ll just have to get used to this.”

    the coward rats did what they do best , backstabbed an honorable fighting man because they can never face a like of him face to face. So they scored one, probably they will score some more , but they have to face it, they lost a war in Syria .

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    Russian media this morning quote Syrian sources that information was leaked to ISIS. Could be inside job (possible), could be Israel (with known connections to ISIS), could be, of course, US forces. It's going to take a while to learn all (or most) details to make sound conclusions. Once you know coordinates it is just the matter of insertion.

    https://ria.ru/syria/20170926/1505584415.html
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  182. @Talha
    I heard about this in Round 1 when Dudayev was leading. Did this happen during Round 2 when the crazies took over?

    Peace.

    I heard about this in Round 1 when Dudayev was leading. Did this happen during Round 2 when the crazies took over?

    I don’t have numerical data but by second go, I would assume, numbers would be very very low. A handful. Do not also forget that there were Ukrainians, Baltic people who were there and, as some posts above clearly show, they have their axes to grind.

    Read More
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  183. @hunor
    "we'll just have to get used to this."

    the coward rats did what they do best , backstabbed an honorable fighting man because they can never face a like of him face to face. So they scored one, probably they will score some more , but they have to face it, they lost a war in Syria .

    Russian media this morning quote Syrian sources that information was leaked to ISIS. Could be inside job (possible), could be Israel (with known connections to ISIS), could be, of course, US forces. It’s going to take a while to learn all (or most) details to make sound conclusions. Once you know coordinates it is just the matter of insertion.

    https://ria.ru/syria/20170926/1505584415.html

    Read More
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  184. jack ryan says: • Website

    I am overwhelmingly on the side of the Russians, secular Baathist Assad Syrian side against ISIS, American/Israeli backed rebels.

    It is beyond belief that Bush I, Bush II era Conservatives went along for all the Neo Conservative, Zionist lies and they are still chomping at the bits to get back in and start new wars against Syria or even full on Cold War against the Russians.

    We’ve had ~ 25 years of anarchy in Iraq, ISIS came to power, setting off mass Muslim male migrant invaders of Western Europe. What could be worse than that?

    Plus the powers that be still managed to get some Country and Western singer like Hand Williams Jr. (DOn’t give us a reason) and Toby Keith (American solider) to sell this to Red State American Conservatives, Religious Right Christians “Ah Support our Troops – anybody that doesn’t is a Commi or a worst an Isolationist NAZI.

    I’ve worked with the great artist Farstar to use humor to try to counter the “American” (yeah right) media Neo Con war monger liars. He’s one popular one:

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  185. @paull
    Pure fantasy from Saker McNasty. The US isn't interested in winning battles. It's interested in controlling the future of Syria. Russia may have won this battle, but the message sent was by the US and Russia, despite its public fulminating, got that message. Russia will agree to the partition of Syria that the US wants. This whole story is about face saving for Russia. Saker McNasty has a role to play in that. He plays it well.

    I think Putin never really intended to defend Syria's sovereignty. I think he has basically the same idea Trump has: that sovereignty means something different for small countries. Let's just say that the more powerful a country is, the more 'sovereignty' it has.

    So Russia boasts that it has won a battle and consequently makes threats. Meanwhile negotiations for the carve-up of Syria are being finalized...

    Russia didn’t want war at his home, but wants a confrontation to make understand americans that they can’t decide whatever all around the world, they became understand that isn’t the only player in the world (as their bosses thinkings), and america must understand to stay calm. And understand that their behavior must change completely and fast !(what they can’t ever did, thinks if have a war at home the things changes very much)

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