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The West is rotting!
Yes, maybe, but what a nice smell…

Old Soviet joke

The word ‘catastrophe‘ has several meanings, but in its original meaning in Greek the word means a “sudden downturn” (in Greek katastrophē ‘overturning, sudden turn,’ from kata- ‘down’ + strophē ‘turning’). As for the word “superpower” it also has several possible definitions, but my preferred one is this oneSuperpower is a term used to describe a state with a dominant position, which is characterized by its extensive ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined-means of economic, military, technological and cultural strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers” this one, “an extremely powerful nation, especially one capable of influencing international events and the acts and policies of less powerful nations” or this onean international governing body able to enforce its will upon the most powerful states“.

I have mentioned the very visible decline of the US and its associated Empire in many of my articles already, so I won’t repeat it here other than to say that the “ability to exert influence and impose its will” is probably the best criteria to measure the magnitude of the fall of the US since Trump came to power (the process was already started by Dubya and Obama, but it sure accelerated with The Donald). But I do want to use a metaphor to revisit the concept of catastrophe.

If you place an object in the middle of a table and then push it right to the edge, you will exert some amount of energy we can call “E1”. Then, if the edge of the table is smooth and you just push the object over the edge, you exercise a much smaller amount of energy we can call “E2”. And, in most cases (if the table is big enough), you will also find that E1 is much bigger than E2 yet E2, coming after E1 took place, triggered a much more dramatic event: instead of smoothly gliding over the table top, the object suddenly falls down and shatters. That sudden fall can also be called a “catastrophe”. This is also something which happens in history, take the example of the Soviet Union.

The fate of all empires…

Some readers might recall how Alexander Solzhenitsyn repeatedly declared in the 1980s that he was sure that the Soviet regime would collapse and that he would return to Russia. He was, of course, vitriolically ridiculed by all the “specialists” and “experts”. After all, why would anybody want to listen to some weird Russian exile with politically suspicious ideas (there were rumors of “monarchism” and “anti-Semitism”) when the Soviet Union was an immense superpower, armed to the teeth with weapons, with an immense security service, with political allies and supporters worldwide? Not only that, but all the “respectable” specialists and experts were unanimous that, while the Soviet regime had various problems, it was very far from collapse. The notion that NATO would soon replace the Soviet military not only in eastern Europe, but even in part of the Soviet Union was absolutely unthinkable. And yet it all happened, very, very fast. I would argue that the Soviet union completely collapsed in the span of less than 4 short years: 1990-1993. How and why this happened is beyond the scope of this article, but what is undeniable is that in 1989 the Soviet Union was still an apparently powerful entity, while by the end of 1993, it was gone (smashed into pieces by the very nomenklatura which used to rule over it). How did almost everybody miss that?

Because ideologically-poisoned analysis leads to intellectual complacence, a failure of imagination and, generally, an almost total inability to even hypothetically look at possible outcomes. This is how almost all the “Soviet specialists” got it wrong (the KGB, by the way, had predicted this outcome and warned the Politburo, but the Soviet gerontocrats were ideologically paralyzed and were both unable, and often unwilling, to take any preventative action). The Kerensky masonic regime in 1917 Russia, the monarchy in Iran or the Apartheid regime in South Africa also collapsed very fast once the self-destruction mechanism was in place and launched.

You can think of that “regime self-destruction mechanism” as our E1 phase in our metaphor above. As for E2, you can think of it as whatever small-push like event which precipitates the quick and final collapse, apparently with great ease and minimum energy spent.

At this point it is important to explain what exactly a “final collapse” looks like. Some people are under the very mistaken assumption that a collapsed society or country looks like a Mad Max world. This is not so. The Ukraine has been a failed state for several years already, but it still exists on the map. People live there, work, most people still have electricity (albeit not 24/7), a government exists, and, at least officially, law and order is maintained. This kind of collapsed society can go on for years, maybe decades, but it is in a state of collapse nonetheless, as it has reached all the 5 Stages of Collapse as defined by Dmitry Orlov in his seminal book “The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors’ Toolkit” where he mentions the following 5 stages of collapse:

  • Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.
  • Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost.
  • Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.
  • Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.
  • Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.

Having personally visited Argentina in the 1970s and 1980s, and seen the Russia of the early 1990s, I can attest that a society can completely collapse while maintaining a lot of the external appearances of a normal still functioning society. Unlike the Titanic, most collapsed regimes don’t fully sink. They remain about half under water, and half above, possibly with an orchestra still playing joyful music. And in the most expensive top deck cabins, a pretty luxurious lifestyle can be maintained by the elites. But for most of the passengers such a collapse results in poverty, insecurity, political instability and a huge loss in welfare. Furthermore, in terms of motion, a half-sunk ship is no ship at all.

Here is the crucial thing: as long as the ship’s PA systems keep announcing great weather and buffet brunches, and as long as most of the passengers remain in their cabins and watch TV instead of looking out of the window, the illusion of normalcy can be maintained for a fairly long while, even after a collapse. During the E1 phase outlined above, most passengers will be kept in total ignorance (lest they riot or protest) and only when E2 strikes (totally unexpectedly for most passengers) does reality eventually destroy the ignorance and illusions of the brainwashed passengers.

Obama was truly the beginning of the end

I have lived in the US from 1986-1991 and from 2002 to today and there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the country has undergone a huge decline over the past decades. In fact, I would argue that the US has been living under E1 condition since at least Dubya and that this process dramatically accelerated under Obama and Trump. I believe that we reached the E2 “edge of the table” moment in 2018 and that from now on even a relatively minor incident can result in a sudden downturn (i.e. a “catastrophe”). Still, I decided to check with the undisputed specialist of this issue and so I emailed Dmitry Orlov and asked him the following question:

In your recent article “The Year the Planet Flipped Over” you paint a devastating picture of the state of the Empire:

It is already safe to declare Trump’s plan to Make America Great Again (MAGA) a failure. Beneath the rosy statistics of US economic growth hides the hideous fact that it is the result of a tax holiday granted to transnational corporations to entice them to repatriate their profits. While this hasn’t helped them (their stocks are currently cratering) it has been a disaster for the US government as well as for the economic system as whole. Tax receipts have shrunk. The budget deficit for 2018 exceeds $779 billion.

Meanwhile, the trade wars which Trump initiated have caused the trade deficit to increase by 17% from the year before. Plans to repatriate industrial production from low-cost countries remain vaporous because the three key elements which China had as it industrialized (cheap energy, cheap labor and low cost of doing business) are altogether missing. Government debt is already beyond reasonable and its expansion is still accelerating, with just the interest payments set to exceed half a trillion a year within a decade.

ORDER IT NOW

This trajectory does not bode well for the continued existence of the United States as a going concern. Nobody, either in the United States or beyond, has the power to significantly alter this trajectory. Trump’s thrashing about may have moved things along faster than they otherwise would have, at least in the sense of helping convince the entire world that the US is selfish, feckless, ultimately self-destructive and generally unreliable as a partner. In the end it won’t matter who was president of the US—it never has. Among those the US president has succeeded in hurting most are his European allies. His attacks on Russian energy exports to Europe, on European car manufacturers and on Europe’s trade with Iran have caused a fair amount of damage, both political and economic, without compensating for it with any perceived or actual benefits.

Meanwhile, as the globalist world order, which much of Europe’s population appears ready to declare a failure, begins to unravel, the European Union is rapidly becoming ungovernable, with established political parties unable to form coalitions with ever-more-numerous populist upstarts. It is too early to say that the EU has already failed altogether, but it already seems safe to predict that within a decade it will no longer remain as a serious international factor.

Although the disastrous quality and the ruinous mistakes of Europe’s own leadership deserve a lot of the blame, some of it should rest with the erratic, destructive behavior of their transoceanic Big Brother. The EU has already morphed into a strictly regional affair, unable to project power or entertain any global geopolitical ambitions. Same goes for Washington, which is going to either depart voluntarily (due to lack of funds) or get chased out from much of the world.

The departure from Syria is inevitable whether Trump, under relentless pressure from his bipartisan warmongers, backtracks on this commitment or not. Now that Syria has been armed with Russia’s up-to-date air defense weapons the US no longer maintains air superiority there, and without air superiority the US military is unable to do anything. Afghanistan is next; there, it seems outlandish to think that the Washingtonians will be able to achieve any sort of reasonable accommodation with the Taliban.

Their departure will spell the end of Kabul as a center of corruption where foreigners steal humanitarian aid and other resources. Somewhere along the way the remaining US troops will also be pulled out of Iraq, where the parliament, angered by Trump’s impromptu visit to a US base, recently voted to expel them. And that will put paid to the entire US adventure in the Middle East since 9/11: $4,704,439,588,308 has been squandered, to be precise, or $14,444 for every man, woman and child in the US.

The biggest winners in all of this are, obviously, the people of the entire region, because they will no longer be subjected to indiscriminate US harassment and bombardment, followed by Russia, China and Iran, with Russia solidifying its position as the ultimate arbiter of international security arrangements thanks to its unmatched military capabilities and demonstrated knowhow for coercion to peace. Syria’s fate will be decided by Russia, Iran and Turkey, with the US not even invited to the talks. Afghanistan will fall into the sphere of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. And the biggest losers will be former US regional allies, first and foremost Israel, followed by Saudi Arabia.

My question for you is this: where would you place the US (or the Empire) on your 5 stages of decline and do you believe that the US (or the Empire) can reverse that trend?

Here is Dmitry’s reply:

Collapse, at each stage, is a historical process that takes time to run its course as the system adapts to changing circumstances, compensates for its weaknesses and finds ways to continue functioning at some level. But what changes rather suddenly is faith or, to put it in more businesslike terms, sentiment. A large segment of the population or an entire political class within a country or the entire world can function based on a certain set of assumptions for much longer than the situation warrants but then over a very short period of time switch to a different set of assumptions. All that sustains the status quo beyond that point is institutional inertia. It imposes limits on how fast systems can change without collapsing entirely. Beyond that point, people will tolerate the older practices only until replacements for them can be found.

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost.

Internationally, the major change in sentiment in the world has to do with the role of the US dollar (and, to a lesser extent, the Euro and the Yen—the other two reserve currencies of the three-legged globalist central banker stool). The world is transitioning to the use of local currencies, currency swaps and commodities markets backed by gold. The catalyst for this change of sentiment was provided by the US administration itself which sawed through its own perch by its use of unilateral sanctions. By using its control over dollar-based transactions to block international transactions it doesn’t happen to like it forced other countries to start looking for alternatives. Now a growing list of countries sees throwing off the shackles of the US dollar as a strategic goal. Russia and China use the ruble and the yuan for their expanding trade; Iran sells oil to India for rupees. Saudi Arabia has started to accept the yuan for its oil.

This change has many knock-on effects. If the dollar is no longer needed to conduct international trade, other nations no longer have hold large quantities of it in reserve. Consequently, there is no longer a need to buy up large quantities of US Treasury notes. Therefore, it becomes unnecessary to run large trade surpluses with the US, essentially conducting trade at a loss. Further, the attractiveness of the US as an export market drops and the cost of imports to the US rises, thereby driving up cost inflation. A vicious spiral ensues in which the ability of the US government to borrow internationally to finance the gaping chasm of its various deficits becomes impaired. Sovereign default of the US government and national bankruptcy then follow.

The US may still look mighty, but its dire fiscal predicament coupled with its denial of the inevitability of bankruptcy, makes it into something of a Blanche DuBois from the Tennessee Williams play “A Streetcar Named Desire.” She was “always dependent on the kindness of strangers” but was tragically unable to tell the difference between kindness and desire. In this case, the desire is for national advantage and security, and to minimize risk by getting rid of an unreliable trading partner.

How quickly or slowly this comes to pass is difficult to guess at and impossible to calculate. It is possible to think of the financial system in terms of a physical analogue, with masses of funds traveling at some velocity having a certain inertia (p = mv) and with forces acting on that mass to accelerate it along a different trajectory (F = ma). It is also possible to think of it in terms of hordes of stampeding animals who can change course abruptly when panicked. The recent abrupt moves in the financial markets, where trillions of dollars of notional, purely speculative value have been wiped out within weeks, are more in line with the latter model.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost.

Within the US there is really no other alternative than the market. There are a few rustic enclaves, mostly religious communities, that can feed themselves, but that’s a rarity. For everyone else there is no choice but to be a consumer. Consumers who are broke are called “bums,” but they are still consumers. To the extent that the US has a culture, it is a commercial culture in which the goodness of a person is based on the goodly sums of money in their possession. Such a culture can die by becoming irrelevant (when everyone is dead broke) but by then most of the carriers of this culture are likely to be dead too. Alternatively, it can be replaced by a more humane culture that isn’t entirely based on the cult of Mammon—perhaps, dare I think, through a return to a pre-Protestant, pre-Catholic Christian ethic that values people’s souls above objects of value?

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost.

All is very murky at the moment, but I would venture to guess that most people in the US are too distracted, too stressed and too preoccupied with their own vices and obsessions to pay much attention to the political realm. Of the ones they do pay attention, a fair number of them seem clued in to the fact that the US is not a democracy at all but an elites-only sandbox in which transnational corporate and oligarchic interests build and knock down each others’ sandcastles.

The extreme political polarization, where two virtually identical pro-capitalist, pro-war parties pretend to wage battle by virtue-signaling may be a symptom of the extremely decrepit state of the entire political arrangement: people are made to watch the billowing smoke and to listen to the deafening noise in the hopes that they won’t notice that the wheels are no longer turning.

The fact that what amounts to palace intrigue—the fracas between the White House, the two houses of Congress and a ghoulish grand inquisitor named Mueller—has taken center stage is uncannily reminiscent of various earlier political collapses, such as the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire or of the fall and the consequent beheading of Louis XVI. The fact that Trump, like the Ottoman worthies, stocks his harem with East European women, lends an eerie touch. That said, most people in the US seem blind to the nature of their overlords in a way that the French, with their Gilettes Jaunes movement (just as an example) are definitely not.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost.

I have been saying for some years now that within the US social collapse has largely run its course, although whether people actually believe that is an entire matter entirely. Defining “your people” is rather difficult. The symbols are still there—the flag, the Statue of Liberty and a predilection for iced drinks and heaping plates of greasy fried foods—but the melting pot seems to have suffered a meltdown and melted all the way to China. At present half the households within the US speak a language other than English at home, and a fair share of the rest speak dialects of English that are not mutually intelligible with the standard North American English dialect of broadcast television and university lecturers.

Throughout its history as a British colony and as a nation the US has been dominated by the Anglo ethnos. The designation “ethnos” is not an ethnic label. It is not strictly based on genealogy, language, culture, habitat, form of government or any other single factor or group of factors. These may all be important to one extent or another, but the viability of an ethnos is based solely on its cohesion and the mutual inclusivity and common purpose of its members. The Anglo ethnos reached its zenith in the wake of World War II, during which many social groups were intermixed in the military and their more intelligent members.

Fantastic potential was unleashed when privilege—the curse of the Anglo ethnos since its inception—was temporarily replaced with merit and the more talented demobilized men, of whatever extraction, were given a chance at education and social advancement by the GI Bill. Speaking a new sort of American English based on the Ohio dialect as a Lingua Franca, these Yanks—male, racist, sexist and chauvinistic and, at least in their own minds, victorious—were ready to remake the entire world in their own image.

They proceeded to flood the entire world with oil (US oil production was in full flush then) and with machines that burned it. Such passionate acts of ethnogenesis are rare but not unusual: the Romans who conquered the entire Mediterranean basin, the barbarians who then sacked Rome, the Mongols who later conquered most of Eurasia and the Germans who for a very brief moment possessed an outsized Lebensraum are other examples.

ORDER IT NOW

And now it is time to ask: what remains of this proud conquering Anglo ethnos today? We hear shrill feminist cries about “toxic masculinity” and minorities of every stripe railing against “whitesplaining” and in response we hear a few whimpers but mostly silence. Those proud, conquering, virile Yanks who met and fraternized with the Red Army at the River Elbe on April 25, 1945—where are they? Haven’t they devolved into a sad little subethnos of effeminate, porn-addicted overgrown boys who shave their pubic hair and need written permission to have sex without fear of being charged with rape?

Will the Anglo ethnos persist as a relict, similar to how the English have managed to hold onto their royals (who are technically no longer even aristocrats since they now practice exogamy with commoners)? Or will it get wiped out in a wave of depression, mental illness and opiate abuse, its glorious history of rapine, plunder and genocide erased and the statues of its war heros/criminals knocked down? Only time will tell.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.

The term “culture” means many things to many people, but it is more productive to observe cultures than to argue about them. Cultures are expressed through people’s stereotypical behaviors that are readily observable in public. These are not the negative stereotypes often used to identify and reject outsiders but the positive stereotypes—cultural standards of behavior, really—that serve as requirements for social adequacy and inclusion. We can readily assess the viability of a culture by observing the stereotypical behaviors of its members.

  • Do people exist as a single continuous, inclusive sovereign realm or as a set of exclusive, potentially warring enclaves segregated by income, ethnicity, education level, political affiliation and so on? Do you see a lot of walls, gates, checkpoints, security cameras and “no trespassing” signs? Is the law of the land enforced uniformly or are there good neighborhoods, bad neighborhoods and no-go zones where even the police fear to tread?
  • Do random people thrown together in public spontaneously enter into conversation with each other and are comfortable with being crowded together, or are they aloof and fearful, and prefer to hide their face in the little glowing rectangle of their smartphone, jealously guarding their personal space and ready to regard any encroachment on it as an assault?
  • Do people remain good-natured and tolerant toward each other even when hard-pressed or do they hide behind a façade of tense, superficial politeness and fly into a rage at the slightest provocation? Is conversation soft in tone, gracious and respectful or is it loud, shrill, rude and polluted with foul language? Do people dress well out of respect for each other, or to show off, or are they all just déclassé slobs—even the ones with money?
  • Observe how their children behave: are they fearful of strangers and trapped in a tiny world of their own or are they open to the world and ready to treat any stranger as a surrogate brother or sister, aunt or uncle, grandmother or grandfather without requiring any special introduction? Do the adults studiously ignore each others’ children or do they spontaneously act as a single family?
  • If there is a wreck on the road, do they spontaneously rush to each others’ rescue and pull people out before the wreck explodes, or do they, in the immortal words of Frank Zappa, “get on the phone and call up some flakes” who “rush on over and wreck it some more”?
  • If there is a flood or a fire, do the neighbors take in the people who are rendered homeless, or do they allow them to wait for the authorities to show up and bus them to some makeshift government shelter?

It is possible to quote statistics or to provide anecdotal evidence to assess the state and the viability of a culture, but your own eyes and other senses can provide all the evidence you need to make that determination for yourself and to decide how much faith to put in “the goodness of humanity” that is evident in the people around you.

Dmity concluded his reply by summarizing his view like this:

Cultural and social collapse are very far along. Financial collapse is waiting for a trigger. Commercial collapse will happen in stages some of which—food deserts, for instance—have already happened in many places. Political collapse will only become visible once the political class gives up. It’s not as simple as saying which stage we are at. They are all happening in parallel, to one extent or another.

My own (totally subjective) opinion is that the US has already reached stages 1 through 4, and that there are signs that stage 5 has begun; mainly in big cities as US small towns and rural areas (Trump’s power base, by the way) are still struggling to maintain the norms and behaviors one could observe in the US of the 1980s. When I have visitors from Europe they always comment how friendly and welcoming US Americans are (true, I live in small-town in East-Central Florida, not in Miami…). These are the communities which voted for Trump because they said “we want our country back”. Alas, instead of giving them their country back, Trump gifted it to the Neocons…

Conclusion: connecting the dots; or not

Frankly, the dots are all over the place; it is really hard to miss them. However, for the doubleplusgoodthinkingideological drone” they remain largely invisible, and this is not due to any eyesight problem, but due to that drone’s total inability to connect the dots. These are the kind of folks who danced on the deck of the Titanic while it was sinking. For them, when the inevitable catastrophe comes, it will be a total, mind-blowing, surprise. But, until that moment, they will keep on denying the obvious, no matter how obvious that obvious has become.

Don’t expect these two losers to fix anything, they will only make things worse…

In the meantime, the US ruling elites are locked into an ugly internal struggle which only further weakens the US. What is so telling is that the Democrats are still stuck with their same clueless, incompetent and infinitely arrogant leadership, in spite of the fact that everybody knows that the Democratic Party is in deep crisis and that new faces are desperately needed. But no, they are still completely stuck in their old ways and the same gang of gerontocrats continues to rule the party apparatus.

That is another surefire sign of degeneracy: when a regime can only produce incompetent, often old, leaders who are completely out of touch with reality and who blame their own failures on internal (“deplorables”) and external (“the Russians”) factors. Again, think of the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, the Apartheid regime in South Africa under F. W. de Klerk, or the Kerensky regime in 1917 Russia.

As for the Republicans, they are basically a subsidiary of the Israeli Likud Party. Just take a look at the long list of losers the Likud produced at home, and you will get a sense of what they can do in its US colony.

Eventually the US will rebound; I have no doubts about that at all. This is a big country with millions of immensely talented people, immense natural resources and no credible threat to it’s territory. But that can only happen after a real regime change (as opposed to a change in Presidential Administration) which, itself, is only going to happen after an “E2 catastrophe” collapse.

Until then, we will all be waiting for Godot.

 
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  1. “The EU has already morphed into a strictly regional affair, unable to project power or entertain any global geopolitical ambitions.”

    Well, the Brits are busy deploying units in Norway to roll back the Russian juggernaut as well as planning Forward Operating Bases in far east Asia to check the expansion. The German Bundeswehr and Bundesmarine have had a number of forward deployments in the Med basin, North Africa, and Southwest Asia to also check the Russkies. And the French? Well, they’re all over the place fomenting troubles to steer more business to troubled French corporations. It seems like the EU forces are showing the flag everywhere but in the actual EU.

  2. Escher says:

    Native-born White Americans still rush to the rescue of people in distress (including strangers), including welcoming them into their homes.
    As the author pointed out, the above is seen more often in small town America. City denizens tend to bowl alone.

    • Replies: @Moi
  3. Cyrano says:

    I think that Lenin was wrong when he said that the last phase of Capitalism will be Imperialism. I think that the last phase of Capitalism will be Capitulism – and they are already halfway there – capitulating to the 3rd world hordes and the insane ideas of their degenerate elites.

    • Agree: byrresheim
    • Replies: @Ace
  4. aGerman says:

    To be short: Bundeswehr is internal named “Operettenarmee”. Their duty: Stop the enemy until a real army comes.

    The Russians give a laugh on it. They tell to nuke you if you attack them. And they do what they say. Western bluffing is weakness in there eyes, with a lot of reason. Btw:Two countries i worked in i never will attack, Russia and Vietnam.

    No chance, the USA can’t back there fiat money with war again. To expensive and to risky for “shareholders”.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  5. peterAUS says:

    Stopped reading at:

    The EU has already morphed into a strictly regional affair, unable to project power or entertain any global geopolitical ambitions. Same goes for Washington, which is going to either depart voluntarily (due to lack of funds) or get chased out from much of the world.

    Well, it’s O.K. to have online therapy with that brief dopamine rush every now and then. Does help, I guess.

    But, looks like, in order to keep having the “fix” the blathering is becoming ludicrous. Starting to feel ……desperate.

    Like: “…unable to project power or entertain any global geopolitical ambitions. Same goes for Washington….”.

    Some “analysts”. Not even funny.

  6. AWM says:

    “Now that Syria has been armed with Russia’s up-to-date air defense weapons the US no longer maintains air superiority there, and without air superiority the US military is unable to do anything.”

    Well there you go, it didn’t take long did it?
    We always hear it and always will, the vaunted Russian Air Defense, maybe that’s why UFO sightings are down. They are really pressing to sell this junk, aren’t they?

    • Replies: @WHAT
  7. Anon[666] • Disclaimer says:

    The American Empire or its successor may be around for much longer than you think, perhaps another 100 years. What I think will collapse is any pretense of democracy and common decency; the Democrat party is soon to become the permanent majority party due to demographic changes, so the breaks of constitutional control are about to come off. As a reminder, the Roman Republic collapsed only to be replaced by an empire that lasted for hundreds of years. We could be witnessing the same here. Of course, that all depends on when you set your dates for American Empire (a question that is ignored too often). If the Rubicon moment was 1865, the year the Empire conquered its breakaway Southern province, then the Empire may indeed be nearing its end as empires tend to last only around 200 years. If it was 1945, it still has life in it yet and sill will for a while. If, however, the Rubicon moment approaches us in the present, a tyrannical US police state may be around until the end of the century or later; all the easier to maintain now that they have multi-billion dollar spy agencies with sophisticated tools for tracking down dissenters. The 21st century could be a contest between a despotic US versus a despotic China with everyone else caught in between. I wouldn’t cheer the future just yet.

  8. Max Payne says:

    I have lived in the US from 1986-1991 and from 2002 to today

    1992-2001 were the best years America ever had. When you’ve seen America that great, it’s hard to forget.

    Imagine living in a time when America didn’t have an enemy. Seriously. No USSR. No War on Terror. No politically correct illiteracy. A time of relative peace.

    Hell… they showed the president jogging on TV in the mornings because…. nothing was happening…

    It was great.

  9. “The departure from Syria is inevitable whether Trump, under relentless pressure from his bipartisan warmongers, backtracks on this commitment or not. Now that Syria has been armed with Russia’s up-to-date air defense weapons the US no longer maintains air superiority there, and without air superiority the US military is unable to do anything. Afghanistan is next” Next, in what sense? Are the Russians going to give to the Taliban ground-to-air weapons, just as they did with the Syrians? Or will the Americans give up, despite nothing of this sort, and nothing in general happening?

    “Russia and China use the ruble and the yuan for their expanding trade”. Nope. It was a suggesting, made by a hothead. Who the hell would want rubles? Also, have you ever seen a ruble/USD plot? That in itself should explain why America does not need to return to the gold standard. Speaking of which …

    “The world is transitioning to the use of local currencies, currency swaps and commodities markets backed by gold. ” Also no. There is no such thing a commodity market “backed” by gold. With the possible exception of internal markets, all commodities are traded in dollars. For example, how much is on oil barrel in yuans? Can’t find that, of course.

    “a return to a pre-Protestant, pre-Catholic Christian ethic” There is no pre-Catholic Christianity. Paul did not go to preach to Moscow and Kyiyiyiyiiyyv or whatever it is now the right spelling. Paul went to Rome. Then the Roman emperor mixed up some Pauline (in fact Jewish / Zoroastrian) bs and some ancient Roman traditions, and here is your Christianity. By 380, almost everything that defines Christianity was settled in a form shared by Catholics and many of their schismatic detractors. It takes a lot of guts to be affiliated with a church whose Patriarchate was disestablished, then re-established, by Stalin, and to talk about pre-Catholic values.

    • Replies: @coolhandab
    , @Bill
  10. TheJester says:

    Let me be optimistic that the path to the eventual economic, national, and cultural collapse of the United States will follow the path of the Soviet Union: quick collapse followed by a slow process of national, cultural, and religious regeneration.

    In this model, Trump is playing out the script written for “Yeltsin” … a reckless buffoon exposing the hypocrisy and inherent weakness of Soviet ideology, economics, and culture.

    Trump has done us a favor. Without Yeltsin, the Soviet Union might have lumbered for a few more decades as a decadent, geriatric patient in a hospice awaiting inevitable death. With Yeltsin’s help, the end came quickly. Taking advantage of the anarchy, a conspiratorial elite consisting of a cabal of billionaires raped the Soviet Union of its wealth while there was still something left to steal … and absconded to safe havens in London, New York, and Israel. This made the end of the Soviet system inevitable.

    Are we already in the phase of oligarchical plunder? Yes, it’s obvious.

    Russia achieved its “MRGA” with Putin, backed by a core of Russian nationalists and patriots who rejected the multicultural diversity and globalism inherent in Marxist dogma. Russia is returning to its pre-1917 culture and traditions. Let’s hope we can also achieve our “MAGA” by rediscovering the confident Anglosphere that created the post-WWII world.

    Bye-bye feminism, multicultural diversity, and the decadent “globohomo” ideology that came to define the “Empire”.

    • Replies: @Iberiano
    , @Svigor
  11. DFH says:

    the curse of the Anglo ethnos since its inception

    How dumb do you need to be to believe this?

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
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  13. We already saw a step-change economic collapse in 2008 that has not been rectified. Since nothing was done to punish the guilty, another larger collapse will occur.

    Saker is correct that even a major step-change collapse in the Anglosphere will not bring conditions resembling Mogadishu to majority-Anglo areas. With the legacy remains of a high trust* society, it won’t likely even be as bad as ’90s Russia or modern Ukraine. If we get lucky, say with our own Anglo-Putin emerging from the ruins, it may even be a positive in the long run.

    *There is still a lot of this, especially among the middle-upper classes and in many rural areas; not always a good thing when it means trusting hostile strangers.

    • Replies: @Skeptikal
  14. That is another surefire sign of degeneracy: when a regime can only produce incompetent, often old, leaders who are completely out of touch with reality and who blame their own failures on [everyone but themselves].

    Another sign of degeneracy is that masses of people put their faith in such human garbage and fantasize that the essentially effortless task of casting ballots every few years will somehow, perhaps magically, improve their situations. Even more telling is the infantilism demonstrated by the attitude that they’re special and “da gweatist” and that the world should cater to their every whim just like mommy and daddy did.

    Dream on, darlings!

    • Replies: @Sean
  15. Iberiano says:
    @TheJester

    Where do you see the “USA” as being, geographically? Just a rump state around DC’s core, and the heart land…like the former Soviet Union, my guess is a lot of states split off, as part of this regeneration (or are cast off), like California, Hawaii, etc. I tend to see it happening as you do–but we have a very serious racial problem that may lead to many more riots and individual crimes during the break up (at least in areas where races overlap/co-exist).

    • Replies: @TheJester
  16. Sean says:

    Germany collapsed in 1918, and then rose from the dead. America has China to fight and that is why it will not go to seed.

  17. Sean says:
    @jacques sheete

    Termites have their ways of building relative skyscrapers, bees have something that has similarities to parliament to organise their relocation, and humans believe in fictions like paper money, afterlife and nation states. The nest, hive, or country is the level that makes decisions, for good or ill. Individuals (termite or human) don’t matter.

  18. bob sykes says:
    @Anon

    The Roman Empire lasted almost 1,000 years after the collapse of the western provinces. The US might do as well even after all pretense of a republican form of government is gone and a totalitarian socialist regime is in power.

  19. @Anon

    America (The Confederate States of America) is really just presiding over what’s left of the British Empire (language, banking system, ideology, etc). The British Empire emerged as a dominant force in 1763, so it’s past its sell-by date according to Sir John Glubb’s calculations.

  20. macilrae says:

    Unlike the Titanic, most collapsed regimes don’t fully sink. They remain about half under water, and half above, possibly with an orchestra still playing joyful music. And in the most expensive top deck cabins, a pretty luxurious lifestyle can be maintained by the elites.

    A clever metaphor.

    … incompetent, often old, leaders who are completely out of touch with reality and who blame their own failures on internal (“deplorables”) and external (“the Russians”) factors.

    Just so.

    Dmitry Orlov’s assessment rings dead true to me. The most terrifying factor is that a doomed and demented US administration may resort to the use of its vast air and missile power to save itself.

    • Agree: ChuckOrloski
  21. @The Alarmist

    Well, the Brits are busy deploying units in Norway to roll back the Russian juggernaut as well as planning Forward Operating Bases in far east Asia to check the expansion. The German Bundeswehr and Bundesmarine have had a number of forward deployments in the Med basin, North Africa, and Southwest Asia to also check the Russkies.

    Yes, well, the British Minister of War, is a delusional fireplace salesman, parachuted into his job by Theresa May only knows what chicanery. The Idea of the Brits “rolling back the Russians” is even sillier now than when I was a squaddie in the British Army in the 60s. From what I read, it sounds as though the German readiness for war is about on the same level as the British. So presumably the French will have to do it on their own?

  22. Svigor says:

    *Shakes fist at Great Satan* “Babylon gwan fall soooon!”

    Yeah, okay buddy.

    How quickly or slowly this comes to pass is difficult to guess at and impossible to calculate.

    So this whole thing is unfalsifiable. Gotcha. Thanks for all the math analogies, though.

    To the extent that the US has a culture, it is a commercial culture in which the goodness of a person is based on the goodly sums of money in their possession.

    LOL. The corrollary being that Russian culture bases the goodness of a person on how much vodka he can drink.

    But that can only happen after a real regime change (as opposed to a change in Presidential Administration) which, itself, is only going to happen after an “E2 catastrophe” collapse.

    Until then, we will all be waiting for Godot.

    I agree with this. The Judenreich has to go.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  23. Svigor says:
    @TheJester

    I’ll remain agnostic as to whether the US is facing financial collapse, but point out that USSR’s collapse doesn’t imply US has to have one (not that you intended the reference that way). USSR had a command economy, US doesn’t. That said, I do think our military-industrial complex is long overdue for a collapse, having long since lost its only real justification, the Soviet threat.

    Trimming the huge amount of Defense and entitlement fat we’re carrying would help a lot.

    • Replies: @TheJester
  24. ecoglobe.ch says: • Website

    Those five stages of collapse do not seem to count with environmental scarcities.
    Energy, biodiversity, unpolluted environments (incl. CO2), drinking water, food, minerals. Because of continuing population growth and per capita GDP it may only take some decennia till Orlov’s five stages are superimposed by environmental factors. Adrastia … there’s no escape.

    • Troll: MikeatMikedotMike
    • Replies: @Battyhugh
  25. @The Alarmist

    Wasn’t there a report last summer about the German army lacking rifles, so their recruits were training with broomsticks instead?

  26. gsjackson says:

    You know, we’re 15 months into the Q narrative now, and if you’re gong to write about Trump you need to acknowledge this movement in some way, if only to say it’s total hokum. It describes a path 180 degrees away from Saker’s standard-issue declensionist narrative. It holds that Trump is at the forefront of an elaborate plan to bring down the Deep State/Empire/Fed, and the plan is proceeding apace, though obviously completely under the radar of the corporate Zio-media. All the little nods to the neocons and Israel (which will be dealt with last, according to Q) are simply misdirection to fool the DS.

    According to the Q interpreters, Trump knows full well that the economy is at the end of its tether, and he is setting up the Fed to take the fall when that happens. That’s certainly plausible, given the frequency now with which he lambastes the central bank. That accomplishment alone would make him Rushmore eligible.

    Is the Q narrative a more accurate depiction of what’s really going on than Saker’s just-another-neocon-tool story? I don’t know. But I’m going to hold out some hope that it is. It certainly appears to be coming from a Trump insider.

  27. Trump is Yeltsin with pate of another hue.
    Sells state to neocons sniffing napalm glue.
    Rotting West rejects only One who is true.
    Would they have loved peace, not war the devil’s due.

  28. @Dacian Julien Soros

    It appears you have received your education in the West, because it’s the simplest explanation for how you can be so wrong about so many things. A simple, objective example is your final paragraph. Besides being borderline deranged on the makeup of the Church prior to the Ecumenical Councils, the seat of the Patriarch of Moscow and all Rus was disestablished by Peter I, sometimes called “the great,” and reestablished under the post-Revolution provisional government at the Council of Moscow that elevated St. Tikhon of Russia and America, whom you’ve probably never heard of. The Moscow Patriarchate itself was never disestablished, and never will be. Thanks for playing, though.

    • Agree: Alfred
    • Replies: @gabriel
  29. Biff says:

    Some people are under the very mistaken assumption that a collapsed society or country looks like a Mad Max world. This is not so.

    I’m a bit skeptical that the beltway empire will easily take a second or third or fifth place without tossing a few nukes around. Their self-described way of maintaining premier status is to pre-emptively destroy challengers – by violence if necessary.

    Don’t be sad – the Mad Max world will be a great clarifier.

    • Replies: @Harold Smith
  30. Battyhugh says:
    @ecoglobe.ch

    You are sadly correct – I’m surprised that Orlov (and the commentators) don’t mention those realities – and we are soon to have an increasing number of refugees (from these causes) – which will be inherently socially destabilizing – especially for communities “on the edge”.

    • Replies: @Kiza
  31. Saker and Orlov do have some points, although the is also a lot of Unicorn sprinkled in.
    It is a well observed fact, that the Evil Empire is a bit strained right now, mainly due to bad decisions abroad.
    The cuse of the rot however is to seek internally, the degradation of social structures in the US and the lack of proper employment, securing a stable middle class. Since beginning of civilization, a middle class has been basics of a stable society, and the US is actively destroying it through greed and corporate management.
    It is with a certain glee I watch the hegemon self destruct, no help needed, the rot will eventually reach the military too, so Russia – China need not act.
    I wonder, when the collapse happens, if it will be broadcast in High Definition 4 k ?
    Death and destruction is best in 4 k.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    , @Bill
  32. @Buck Ransom

    I didn’t hear that one, but apparently all six of their U-Boats were out of service.

  33. Kiza says:

    I am sad because of all the wishful thinking of the good and positive Western commenters here. Dreaming of a Putin emerging from the Western/US collapse…

    Yes, the Western collapse will not be like the USSR collapse and it will not be terribly violent initially. I respect Orlov but I do not subscribe at all to his five stages. The Western collapse is primarily the collapse of The Narative, which is happening in parallel with the financial collapse. Namely, the driving force of the collapse is that fewer and fewer people are prepared to swallow the foundation narratives sold by the totally prostituted media. The elites will either invent a new effective narrative (never underestimate how much people can be fooled, but still unlikely) or will dispense with it altogether and apply raw force against all forms of dissent whilst maintaining the old worn out narratives (we are about to see this applied in France).

    Shit like free markets, gay rights, human rights, black rights, women’s inequality, anthropological global warming, color revolution, works less and less and The Narrative (ideology) is thus collapsing. Other than this, the West is much more financially sick than USSR was. A lot of funny “money” will disappear in a puff of smoke. But people will adjust and the Western society will survive, just like Ukraine where people collect wood to replace the Russian gas and nobody believes even a word coming from the elite or their media prostitutes.

    I sincerely feel like throwing up on every rare occasions when I open up the prositutemedia, even if I turn off the sound and just watch their faces with a stream of turds dropping out of their filthy mouths.

    • Agree: Stonehands
  34. Argent says:

    With the absence of Clinton’s culpability among your Bush, obama, and Trump assertion, I would not waste my time reading further. Clinton started this ball rolling with selling out of America v Chinese trade. Doubt me, walk randomly through any Wal-Mart, picking up items as you go. 95% or better are made in China. Its been this way since the beginning of the millennium.

  35. TheJester says:
    @Iberiano

    Fun and games … There has been a lot of back and forth on the Internet regarding what a breakup of the United States would look like.

    My take: Washington DC is irrelevant. It functions as a cultural and political suburb of Wall Street. It will not the be the “core” of anything. It is not economically viable except as an imperial capital. Maybe swamps will reclaim it 🙂

    When the dust settles, there are a number of natural affinities based on common cultures. The historical South stays the historical South. The states between the Alleganies and Rockies coalesce into a country with the possible exception of Colorado and select northern liberal states that were settled by large numbers of Yankees from New England and the mid-Atlantic states. The northern liberal states will opt to become part of Canada.

    The Peoples Republics of California and New York will further devolve into city-states based on the environs of New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco … while the rural areas in northern California and upstate New York will try to break away to align with national entities that provide closer cultural affinities.

    Given the precedents that occurred with the fall of the Western Roman and Russian Empires, we can expect that the new city-states will try to assert control over whatever rural areas are required to guarantee their food supplies and other resources. This would entail cycles of confiscation and civil war, i.e. the Ukranian Holodomor.

    • Agree: Cleburne
    • Replies: @Iberiano
    , @Kiza
    , @ChuckOrloski
  36. We can know the future as the past not simply with pure speculation or educated guesses but by trusting in the word of the LORD of Hosts.

    For it is written that within the next 7 years great war will occur and out of it will arise a NWO, a false messiah and his false prophet to rule the world and bring a 7 year false covenant of peace with Israel and the world.
    When peace and safety is declared sudden destruction will occur and then great Judgement from God above on a rebellious and unbelieving world.
    Then the return of Jesus at Armageddon in great fury and redemption to destroy the armies of the Antichrist and to take back the earth that is rightfully His.
    He will then rule the earth as the Lion of Judah with a rod of iron from the throne of David in Jerusalem for 1000 years.
    For it is written.
    Regard or disregard by faith or unbelief at your own redemption or peril.
    For it is written.

  37. TheJester says:
    @Svigor

    There are reasons to claim that we are no longer a market-driven economy; rather, we have morphed into a poorly designed command economy driven by the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve Bank. The argument is that the Federal Reserve has so distorted the market economy in its efforts to influence the economy by manipulating interest rates and inflation that normal market-driven business cycles no longer exist.

    Other evidence that we are no longer have a market-driven economy is that the Federal Government no longer has a de facto budget. It engages in reckless spending backed by monetizing the debt through reckless borrowing from international markets through the sale of Treasury bonds. That’s only sustainable as long as the US dollar is the world’s major reserve currency and foreign countries continue to buy dollars to engage in international trade. This is quickly changing as countries increasingly turn to non-dollar vehicles and arrangements to support international trade, i.e. trade in local currencies, the Yuan, the Euro.

    From the Internet: “The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 lays out a formal framework for developing and enforcing a “budget resolution” to guide the [budget development] process but in recent years the process has not always worked as envisioned.” That is an understatement indeed.

    My belief is that the United States does face financial collapse and massive inflation. The US is, in fact, accelerating financial collapse by “weaponizing” the dollar-based SWIFT international payment system it has controlled since 1973 by sanctioning (forbidding) hostile or non-cooperative countries, business sectors, and companies from using SWIFT, i.e. Russia, Iran, Venezuela. This is forcing an increasing number of countries to find alternatives to the dollar in international trade. Russia already has an alternative to SWIFT in place to bypass US sanctions. China is in the process of building an alternative to SWIFT … and the EU has started the process of designing an alternative to SWIFT.

    When SWIFT dies … so does the dollar.

  38. @peterAUS

    There is undoubtedly a little dopamine hit in every on-line commentary. Point taken. However, if we get past the perceived schadenfreude of the article, a couple of issues do merit serious consideration: One, the EU is clearly involved in a preservation project, not power projection. Even political parties in Germany and France are openly discussing the dismantling of the union. Superstates in existential turmoil just do not have the political calories available for considered strategic power projection. As for the U.S., between the Bolton, Pompeo, and Trump declarations and contradictions, there is an inexorable retreat in the works, at least from Syria, Afghanistan, and possibly Iraq. The author’s point about a disconnect of the US dollar in strategic (i.e. energy) trades is another aspect that deserves attention. I’m less than convinced that North American society is already teetering on stage 4–faith in the market is still strong, and most Americans, regardless of the language of the home, understand the responsibilities and privileges of civil society–but I am convinced that many of the “trends” indicated by this analysis ought not be ignored.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  39. Patricus says:

    The fix is in. The dice are loaded. The cards are marked. It is funny how I have heard this kind of loser talk for my six decades. In the beginning of the 20th century a pessimistic person could have contemplated the imminent and complete collapse of humanity, while saddling the horse for the daily commute. In my brief time the grim reaper was always knocking on the door but somehow life continued, in fact most things improved dramatically.

    The Saker is another tiresome merchant of loser talk. Nothing new here. Losers have always been among us. America has been unique in that losers are a minority. The audience for losers like The Saker has been tiny but sadly they never vanish entirely. God bless America.

    Eventually we will all die. Some giant meteor could vaporize the globe. The sun might explode. Huddle in a corner and weep while anticipating the inevitable fiery demise.

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
  40. Iberiano says:
    @TheJester

    Yes, I think cultural affinity (paired with geographic proximity) will be the best method to determine what new “nation states” will be created. The thing I’ve always had a problem with, re the whole “South will rise again”, “the South will be a new nation, etc”. The South is packed with blacks in urban areas, like much of the US. So unless you see Atlanta and Birmingham, for example, being their own fully functional city-states, they will have to be retaken, so to speak. Blacks can’t run anything, so I don’t see them being like, even dysfunctional, but powerful LA as a city state.

    How do you see the break up of the South?

    • Replies: @Cleburne
  41. The Humpty Dumpty character sitting on the wall at the top of this (excellent) article looks very much like Mike Pompeo.

    • Replies: @seriously
  42. @Anon

    Every centralizing empire requires an external source of energy to pay the costs of the excessive bureaucracy and mendicancy in the capital. Tainter, in the collapse of complex societies, showed that Rome in the West started to collapse when it ran out of nearby wealthy neighbors to conquer. Gaul was profitable to conquer, as they had gold. Britain, less so; the British economy after the end of Roman Rule was actually more debased and incapable than it had been before Rome; not so, Gaul. The last wealthy neighboring conquest was that of Dacia; Trajan used the wealth and slaves from that conquest to remove a hill in Rome and put up his column to the height the hill had been.

    The Picts and the Germans were too war-like and poor to make conquest worthwhile. Once there was no booty to pay for the costs of troops, the empire had to support the troops out of tax revenues. That broke in the third century, and was really never fixed.

    The source of energy that supports the imperial bureaucracy in DC has been fossil fueled wealth, as Orlov points out in the article. We will still have fossil fuels for hundreds of years, but we are now exploiting the less-profitable ones. They pay back in energy 10-12 times the cost to get them (some coal is still 80-100 times energy cost, but oil not so), which is enough to run society on, but not enough to fund the empire. Meanwhile, imperial tribute in the form of wealth extraction via dollar exports is coming to an end.

    Expecting this empire to last 1000 years is folly. The Roman Empire in the West collapsed about 100 years after the external fuel for it was cut off. Given peak conventional oil production in the USA of 1970, and peak conventional oil production globally of 2005, this gives the empire 51 to 86 more years of life.

    • Replies: @Wally
    , @Mr. Underfoot
  43. Lots to think about, lots to argue about. Wish articles like this had a wider dissemination. Maybe put some links to it on porn sites?

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  44. peterAUS says:
    @Michael J.

    I”ll focus on the “power projection”. All the rest simply supports it, or not.

    E.U. hasn’t been into it and does not matter. They’ve been, always, so far, following the USA lead and supplying auxiliary forces.
    So, let’s focus on USA “power projection”. I’ll start paying attention to that when I see the real troop pullouts. Not those made for public consumption. So far, nothing.

    And here is where we agree:

    …but I am convinced that many of the “trends” indicated by this analysis ought not be ignored.

    just for different reasons.
    I believe those weaknesses are precisely the reason to be worried about further, and even bigger, “power projection”.
    Or, a good war always helps ruling elites when in domestic problems. At least in short term.
    And…hehe…that “but it will ruin them in future”, you know, all this story finishes with “white dwarf” either way you cut it. So, true but irrelevant.

    Our “Team Russia” analysts have it all wrong. It’s other way around.
    They believe, because the System is showing weakness and elements of crisis it will stop, even reverse, its power projection. I believe exactly the opposite. We’ll see more of it and, probably, some risky and reckless moves. The nature of The Beast, I am afraid.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @chris
  45. AP says:

    This is the same genius who predicted in 2016 Ukraine was about to enter the Somalia stage of collapse.

    • Replies: @Kiza
  46. ronbow says:
    @Max Payne

    A lot was happening — Corporations were moving our jobs offshore to low wage countries while the main stream media broadcast the Clinton soap opera.

    • Replies: @Bubba
  47. Kiza says:
    @Battyhugh

    You two leftist cretins still swallow at least part of The Narrative. CO2 is a fertiliser not a pollutant, it was funny to observe how leftist scum was arguing for protection against AGW until, at least some, realised that they would be paying the carbon taxes trough vehicle fuel, electricity and gas prices.

    You cretins, the power elite sells you a spin, a narrative and you keep spewing stupidities all the way to the checkout, till you realise who is paying for the spin (Gillette’s Jaunes finally woke up).

    The living spieces and the environment are endangered but not by CO2 in the enclosed cycle Earth’s system, which has coped with large variations in the CO2 content in the atmosphere over billions of years. CO2 is just an ordinary gas turned into a money maker.

    CO2 Narrative is one of a handful that the Western societal inequality rests on. It is one of the methods how the rich are getting richer and the middle class is disappearing. Naturally, every of the bullshit Narratives has its foot soldiers, PR people, tax collectors etc who rise a notch above their impoverished fellow men by implementing the bullshit.

    Almost all bullshit Narratives are leftist, except maybe the “free market” one. Obviously, the Western power elite has decided that harnessing the stupidity of the left is the way to their money and power maintenance.

  48. Kiza says:
    @AP

    I would not be gloating about the failure of Somali prediction for Ukraine. Ukraine is a Westen protectorate and Ukrainians are now living from selling their patrimony to IMF and Westen corporations. In other words, the life in Ukraine is still livabe only because Ukrainians are walking on the land which does not belong to them any more. The only saving grace is that the West has encouraged its servants to reneg on Russian loans to Ukraine, which sets a precedent for Ukraine to reneg on Western loans one day when things turn.

    • Replies: @AP
  49. Dredd says: • Website

    Habits of civilizations:

    “In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces” …

    (How To Identify The Despotic Minority)

  50. Kiza says:
    @TheJester

    Yes, exactly. You describe one of the only two possible scenarios, the good outcome.

    The only two scenarios are:
    US turns inwards and divides itself according to “cultural and economic affinities”, with some relatively minor internal conflict, or
    US burns the World and itself to cinder unwilling to accept that it needs to solve its own problems before rulling the World for Israel.

    • Replies: @Stonehands
  51. Forrest says:

    I agree that the US will recover. But I am not sure it has the ability to recover on its own. I think Russia will be the catalyst. We have already lost the Cold War to Russia. CFR president Richard Haass finally said it: The US cannot defeat Russia. He advised the government to just move on, but also admitted they probably will not heed his advice. This is a reflection of how the KGB in the last days of the Soviet empire, realized the system would fail but the gerontocrats in power refused to believe it. We will not reform ourselves, we will BE reformed. I hope I am wrong, but I do not live in the rarefied atmosphere of Silicone Valley or a respectable Florida community. I have a group of college “friends” who are almost all Democrats and they are vicious and mean toward anyone who thinks differently. There is a meanness in America that will not be cured until the empire falls.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  52. Taras77 says:
    @Max Payne

    That was the time period when the clinton admin, with assists from neo cons, Russian oligarchs, and the drunken yeltzen, was very busy looting the USSR of its assets.

    They were all very successful in their criminal enterprises.

    It was just too boring, however, for the MIC and they had to go out and find an enemy.

  53. @peterAUS

    He wrote about you and your likes a little bit further down, “However, for the doubleplusgoodthinking “ideological drone” they remain largely invisible, and this is not due to any eyesight problem, but due to that drone’s total inability to connect the dots.”
    So you should have kept on reading the article, perhaps you could have saved your dopamine kick to another article that did not mention you and your kind in such clear words.

    • Agree: bluedog
    • LOL: chris
  54. Winston2 says:
    @Anon

    Hardly likely and you compare apples and lemons.
    The Roman Empire was well managed,financially above all, for centuries.
    Not something that can be said about Pax Americana,except for maybe the decade of the 1950’s.

  55. AP says:
    @Kiza

    I would not be gloating about the failure of Somali prediction for Ukraine.

    It’s just very funny. And someone who predicted in 2016 that Ukraine was about to turn into Somalia based on his “stages of collapse” theory should not be taken seriously when he makes claims about the USA or any other places based on his theory. USA may or mauy not be in toruble, but Orlov’s prediction is useless.

    Ukraine is a Westen protectorate and Ukrainians are now living from selling their patrimony to IMF and Westen corporations.

    Lol, just like the Poles are said to have done. Yet Poland is the most successful of the post-Soviet states. Ukraine will be lucky to be half as successful.

    In other words, the life in Ukraine is still livabe only because Ukrainians are walking on the land which does not belong to them any more.

    Foreigners still can’t buy land in Ukraine, actually.

    • Replies: @Winston2
  56. Winston2 says:
    @AP

    Not true, I have a client(American) who owns thousands of Hectares in Ukraine.

    • Replies: @AP
  57. @Random5499

    How about simply adding the following line from the masthead to the bottom of all of the emails that you send, along with a line requesting that the recipient do the same?

    The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection. http://www.unz.com
    A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media.

    Due to the now much greater non-American content, I would ixnay the word American and just go with Mainstream Media or replace that with Corporate Media.

    I’m not sure of adding it to porn sites though and I would be not be keen on doing the dirty work on that but there are lots of other comment venues that do attract a politically minded readership and the tag line could simply be added to comments made there.

    Cheers

  58. Alfred says:
    @Anon

    “Democrat party is soon to become the permanent majority party due to demographic changes”

    A look at this chart will disabuse you of that notion. The Democrats are going the same way all the European Socialist parties (which have been hijacked by the Zionists)

    And here is the full article by Martin Armstrong:

    The Democrats have been losing power steadily as I have pointed out just from a technical perspective. Just plotting the numbers without any political bias demonstrates clearly that the Socialist agenda has been declining after FDR managed to get into office.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/us-political-2018-midterm-elections/

  59. Beckow says:
    @peterAUS

    … some risky and reckless moves.

    And I don’t disagree (we are in for some turbulence), but what was Iraq and Syria if not ‘risky and reckless‘? What was stirring up Ukraine if not reckless?

    I fully expect more of the same, but at some point the losses will accumulate and will become harder to hide by bamboozling most of the population via the media. My guess is that we have 1-2 generations left, enough time to break out the popcorn…

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  60. anonymous[395] • Disclaimer says:

    Eventually the US will rebound;

    Maybe, maybe not. When the USSR fell apart there was a core that it all shrunk down to, that core being the Russian people. Based on that core they were able to reconstitute themselves within twenty years and continue to improve in all ways. The USA, on the other hand, no longer has any real core but is divided from within. One out of three so-called Americans is non-white, there’s really no common culture and trust is low. There wasn’t much tying Americans together in the first place except for being inhabitants of one big economic empire. Good luck in trying to put Humpty-Dumpty back together again.

    • Agree: apollonian, By-tor
    • Replies: @follyofwar
  61. @Kiza

    I could certainly see PA as a viable national entity unto itself. It’s established international ports and shipping maintenance- international airport ;when and if that remains viable.
    Huge natural gas fields-
    Research hospitals-
    Public transportation to move the most important commodities- people!

    First the entitlements will have to end, including social security, pensions. That’s all long gone.
    And consequently there will truly be skin in the game for investors, as there is no more wall st. casino “bondage” and seigniorage…
    Perhaps some sort of tribute to maintain city/state but not until the elimination of IRS, Fed reserve and the criminalizing of the R and D’s.

    Status symbols should revolve around true Christian charity and not consumerism.

    If you work you should be remunerated accordingly, the business of slip and fall shysters and fraudulent disability pensions and pie in the sky political promises of fat and ever expanding retirement obligations- have proven to be disasterous- as well as the trillions of dollars of ego- maniacal military adventurism.
    All the people ever had was there own fortitude, families, tribes and associations as a bulwark against the tragedy of human existence.

    • Replies: @Kiza
    , @follyofwar
  62. Biff says:
    @TheJester

    When SWIFT dies … so does the dollar.

    Funny you should mention that. Here in Asia my bank does digital money transfers for free. When I go buy a car, motorbike, Air Con, I transfer the money directly to the sellers bank – FREE.
    Small local businesses such as bars and restaurants no longer accept Visa, MC, etc… They only do money transfers or cash. New businesses are just leapfrogging SWIFT altogether – as they should.

  63. AP says:
    @Winston2

    It is illegal for non-Ukrainian citizens to own land in Ukraine. He may be on some sort of long-term lease or acquired control over land, but cannot actually own it:

    https://www.dlapiperrealworld.com/law/index.html?c=UA&t=sale-and-purchase&s=ownership-of-real-estate&q=ownership-restrictions

    https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/private-ownership-in-land-for-foreigners-ukraine-5346

    • Replies: @Winston2
  64. peterAUS says:
    @Beckow

    what was Iraq and Syria if not ‘risky and reckless‘?

    Business as usual.
    The one which started with (former) Yugoslavia ’91, developed further with Chechnya ’94, got mature with Yugoslavia ’99 and continued through Afghanistan ’01 to

    What was stirring up Ukraine if not reckless?

    Now, that was supposed to be reckless but proved not to be. So far.

    I fully expect more of the same, but at some point the losses will accumulate and will become harder to hide by bamboozling most of the population via the media.

    Agree for the former.
    As for the later, by loses you mean having US troops on the ground in Ukraine, I presume.
    Some would call it victories. Slowly, but steadily, from East Germany.
    Yes, I know, The Empire got overstretched and is just about to snap. Maybe. Maybe not. How about we wait for the next move and see what happens ?
    I’d say……………………………………………………Iran.
    Or, just (re)hammering of “Little Russians” in Balkans, in meantime.

    My guess is that we have 1-2 generations left, enough time to break out the popcorn…

    By “generations” you mean generations as age group? If only. I’d watch that from my afterlife then (maybe).
    Don’t think I’ll be that lucky.
    I guess we’ll see a decent PROBLEM much earlier. Say….between 2 and 6 years from now.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Beckow
    , @EugeneGur
  65. @anonymous

    God, I don’t want the USA to rebound. That would be a disaster. It want it to break up into several smaller countries so that it can no longer dictate to and try to control the rest of the world by force.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  66. Blather says:

    Democraps and lieberals clearly lying and breaking law and NOBODY do anything. No arrest, no impeachment, no expelling.

    So the problem is not the two-party system. The problem is the one-party system siding with the wrong side or they would have expelled Democraps a long time ago.

  67. SafeNow says:

    “rushing to people in distress”

    January 13 happens to be the anniversary date of the crash of Air Florida into the icy Potomac in 1982. One of the few survivors is about to drown, her limbs too numb to swim or grasp a rope. Scores have watched from the river bank. And watched. And watched. Rest in peace? No! Into the icy water dives…Lenny Skutnick, a nerdy fellow with a droopy mustache from the Congressional Budget Office. Lenny saves the victim. At the forthcoming State of the Union, President Reagan salutes (literally) Lenny; a standing ovation; Lenny is embarrassed and modest at all the attention. The U.S. Coast Guard awards its extremely rare Gold Lifesaving Medal. Why it was Lenny, and not a responder, who dived into the icy water….an interesting question that is above my pay grade. I write simply to introduce a younger generation to Lenny, and to his selfless and brave spirit of the heart.

    • Replies: @Miro23
  68. Svigor says:
    @TheJester

    I am an economic illiterate, and don’t mind saying so. I have a few things to say about economics based on things that seem obvious to me, but otherwise, I avoid the topic.

  69. @Anon

    I don’t think the US Empire has that long—far too many ethnic divisions in the US without the kind of planning that the Soviet Union had adroitly used to transfer and separate ethnic groups that don’t get along….the US government under Obama would build Section 8 housing and bus in Central American migrants to small rural white towns like Cedar Rapids or Davenport, IA….and put Somalis in Ohio in addition to Minnesota…..Social order will collapse quickly when “diversity” is so heavily pushed.

  70. Seraphim says:
    @Svigor

    “Drinking”, said he (Vladimir – or was it Volodymyr – Sviatoslavovici), “is the joy of the Russes. We cannot exist without that pleasure.” (in the year 6494 since the creation and 986 since the Incarnation of the Lord).
    But presumably he was drinking mead or wine. Vodka (aqua vitae /”the water of life”) did not come until the late 14th Century, brought by the Genoese and offered to Dmitry Donskoy. But I guess that he enjoyed it as much as his illustrious ancestor enjoyed his mead.
    Cheers.

  71. @Den Lille Abe

    ‘…It is with a certain glee I watch the hegemon self destruct, no help needed, the rot will eventually reach the military too, so Russia – China need not act.
    I wonder, when the collapse happens, if it will be broadcast in High Definition 4 k ?
    Death and destruction is best in 4 k.’

    There’s some consolation in the thought that that smug Swedish smirk will get wiped off your face when you discover that the consequences of our collapse may be even worse for you than they will be for us.

  72. I read this article with considerable irritation.
    What is the collapse of the article ?
    It is as with fascism, racism, populism, and so on and so forth, much discussion about these words, but nobody explains their meaning, for him, for her, or for gender neutral, what that is, also not very clear.

    The collapse of the EU is more or less clear, the 28 or so different cultures, languages, economic systems, currencies (the euro is not everywhere), social systems, different foreign interests, cannot be the melting pot desired by the present ruling class.
    What will be the collapse, more or less ‘simply’ going back to the EEC, or even further apart, the thirties situation.
    At the time nobody looked with horror at the result of a collapse, sovereign nations next to each other, with the usual rows, as had been Europe since the end of the Roman empire.
    If the end of the EU experiment will lead to wars again, I doubt it.
    If there is one common thing among those living in Europe it is ‘never again war’.

    Now the collapse of this article.
    What is collapsing ?
    Politically, economically, culturally, there are changes, yes.
    The only country that came intact out of WWII, with more industry and military power, than ever, was the USA.
    As Hitler predicted, the allies soon were not allied any more.
    The USSR, Stalin, had other ideas than FDR had had, even in 1946 Bernard Baruch pleaded for a world government.
    How Baruch thought to realise this, no idea.
    Mao replaced the USA puppet Chiang Kai Shek, Mao’s complete lack of insight in economic matters kept China a backward agricultural country.
    If USSR leaders after Stalin wanted war, I doubt it, but the USA left no choice, arm or be conquered.

    In 1990 the USSR economic system had shown anyone that it did not function, unable to provide the consumer goods USSR citizens wanted.
    The ruling class, communists, disappeared.
    I’ve never understood why at the time the USA did not grab world power militarily, both China and Russia were quite weak, militarily.

    What happened since on the world stage, both China and Russia, no longer hampered by their own ideologies, developed economically, and, of course militarily, weapons cost money.
    Militarily the USA can no longer control the world.
    Because of this, or quite separately, white world power, and, in culturally mixed societies, white rule was no longer self evident.

    Now, do I see a collapse, a disaster ?
    No.
    Of course, in both the European countries and in the USA civil war is far from unthinkable.
    Civil war between white and coloured.

    If this happens, and the coloured win, then, in my opinion we have a disaster, back to the barbarism of for example Uganda. But not barbarism anywhere, cannot see Bolivia as a barbarian nation.
    The disaster for me of the end of white power is the end of science, the end of progress everywhere, from agriculture to medical care.

    But even the end of white power is not a collapse, a disaster.
    Contrary to popular thought the collapse of the Roman empire was not the end of the Roman culture, civilisation.
    Roman culture, administrative systems, technical know how, remained.
    Yet, in my opinion, not until 1600 there began to emerge again a culture, civilisation, comparable to the Roman one.
    As the mentioned book makes clear, there never was an overnight collapse
    E. A. Freeman, ‘Western Europe in the fifth century, An Aftermath’, London 1904

  73. @follyofwar

    ‘God, I don’t want the USA to rebound. That would be a disaster. It want it to break up into several smaller countries so that it can no longer dictate to and try to control the rest of the world by force.’

    There’s usually a hegemon. It used to be regional: Rome, Imperial China, Spain in her heyday. France kept having a go in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Under modern conditions that hegemon will be global.

    Since you don’t want to be dictated to by the US, I take it you look forward to being dictated to by China.

    • Agree: eah
    • Replies: @follyofwar
    , @denk
  74. Wally says:

    “Given peak conventional oil production in the USA of 1970, and peak conventional oil production globally of 2005, this gives the empire 51 to 86 more years of life.”

    LOL. Malthusian type nonsense.

    The US is sitting on a veritable ocean of oil.

    America’s Oil And Gas Reserves Double With Massive New Permian Discovery
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/12/21/americas-oil-and-gas-reserves-double-with-massive-new-permian-discovery/#60fceb432c91
    exc.:
    “America’s energy security just got a lot more secure. On November 28 The United States Geological Survey (USGS) published an assessment of continuous (unconventional or ‘tight’) resources in a part of the prolific Permian oil and gas basin that straddles Western Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. Located in the Wolfcamp Shale and overlying Bone Spring Formation, the unproven, technically recoverable reserves are officially the largest on the planet.”

    Then add in the rest of the continental US and then Alaska … oil galore.

  75. chris says:
    @peterAUS

    But this is a much more reasonable comment than your original one (holy dopamine explosion, Batman!). As you imply, ultimately, it’s a judgement call as far as the next developments are concerned.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  76. Gyre07 says:
    @The Alarmist

    All those countries are doing is whistling past the graveyard by emulating the American business model of fleecing the citizens by diverting tax dollars from infrastructure to sluicing it towards weapons manufacturers all the while pummeling their populations with neoliberal mind-swill convincing them that the Russians are the source of all their problems. The People are waking up now (as evidenced by the Yellow Vests of France, and the rise of the AFD in Germany), and the unimaginative and imperceptive ruling class better be packing their ‘go bags’.

  77. chris says:
    @TheJester

    Agree with the whole spade of your comments.

    In what a $-collapse is concerned, I think we might be better able to recognize it when Israel begins to demand its yearly tribute from us in gold.

  78. Miro23 says:
    @The Alarmist

    Well, the Brits are busy deploying units in Norway to roll back the Russian juggernaut.

    According to new reports, Prince Harry has ‘secretly’ agreed to join more than 1,000 elite British commandos ¬in what is being billed as ‘Britain’s biggest war exercises against Russia in 20 years.’

    • Replies: @Podgemex
  79. https://kenfm.de/tagesdosis-12-1-2019-europaeische-union-ein-geordnetes-ende-kann-es-nicht-geben/

    Not anyone in the EU is stupid.
    The article explains why the EU cannot be dissolved in a controlled way, the euro prevents this.
    Politicians dare not confront the ordinary taxpayer with the costs, if they do, they bungle from lamp posts.
    Thus, towards an uncontrolled end, in the hope, I suppose, of putting the blame on someone else, preferably populist politicians, those who see the facts, and do not hide them.

    There is nothing new in the article, what is new, for me, is how present politicians are made responsible for the whole mess.
    What is also new is an article like this on a German Gutmenschen site, where most of the time idealistic wishes are uttered, but without thorough analysis, and certainly without putting blame in a clear manner.

    What is not mentioned is the € 1500 billion Dutch pension fund capital that our politicians brought under EU rules.
    There is little doubt in my mind that there will be no hesitation whatsoever in Brussels to steal this money, in order to prolong the death throes of the EU.

  80. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS

    I guess we’ll see a decent PROBLEM much earlier. Say….between 2 and 6 years from now.

    FWIW, that’s exactly the time frame I’m predicting. IOW, things drag along until the 2020 election. Lots of developments to keep us typing until then, but it looks to me like the 2020 election will mark a deep discontinuity in both US domestic and international politics. A very dangerous 4 yrs follows.

    • Replies: @Kiza
    , @Beckow
    , @peterAUS
  81. Miro23 says:
    @TheJester

    My belief is that the United States does face financial collapse and massive inflation. The US is, in fact, accelerating financial collapse by “weaponizing” the dollar-based SWIFT international payment system it has controlled since 1973 by sanctioning (forbidding) hostile or non-cooperative countries, business sectors, and companies from using SWIFT, i.e. Russia, Iran, Venezuela. This is forcing an increasing number of countries to find alternatives to the dollar in international trade. Russia already has an alternative to SWIFT in place to bypass US sanctions. China is in the process of building an alternative to SWIFT … and the EU has started the process of designing an alternative to SWIFT.

    Very important point here, that the dollar reserve currency status is going to go – and the US is going to get a big inflationary surprise. The question then, is whether the economy can keep functioning (25% – 50% inflation) or whether it loses it completely (e.g. Weimar Germany 29500%).

    Looking at the micro level, what will US citizens do if the situation goes Weimar, and they can no longer buy food (a possibility – not a certainty). Each country deals with hyperinflation in its own way. The Germans (mostly) stoically accepted it, some traded their heirlooms and houses for what little was available and others joined raids into the countryside to loot the farms.

    I don’t have any problem at all seeing US citizens forming armed bands to hunt for food (and fuel etc.) and putting their vast amount of arms and ammunition to use against each other. However, the most likely scenario (since the US has a plentiful food supply) is that states will set up their own local currencies, imported goods will disappear (all the Walmart stuff, computers/electronics etc.) and the large cities will fall into chaos with the future of the US worked out there.

    • Replies: @Miro23
    , @eah
  82. Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in “the goodness of humanity” is lost.

    And when he was gone forth into the way, there came one running, and kneeled to him, and asked him, Good Master, what shall I do that I may inherit eternal life? And Jesus said unto him, Why callest thou me good? there is none good but one, that is, God. (Mark. 10:17-18 King James Version)

    When there is still a culture of Biblical memorizing present, people will be weary of any ‘the goodness of humanity’ -talk & ideology. Rabbi Jesus himself even rejected to be hallowed as good.
    So losing faith in the goodness of humanity is a good sign.

  83. Miro23 says:
    @Miro23

    I should have said the most likely scenario under hyperinflation.

    I doubt that it would come to that. The “do nothing” option is the continued Brazilianization of US society, while it struggles with inflation and economic crises and its rich elite live apart and hold their wealth in foreign currencies outside the US.

    Another possibility would be a coup by the Globalists or the Nationalists with very unpredictable consequences.

  84. Miro23 says:
    @SafeNow

    Good to remember Lenny Skutnick.

    The ideal is to produce a country full of personally responsible Lenny Skutnicks rather than the existing crowd of dumb spectators/consumers.

  85. Herald says:

    “So losing faith in the goodness of humanity is a good sign.” I doubt that you have deliberately misconstrued the biblical reference, so the question is why you have quoted it?

  86. Kiza says:
    @Erebus

    Yes, I would respectfully agree with the same timeframe, 2020-2024 will be when things start shifting into the new state. The human history has been full of transition, then a new steady state, transition then a new steady state and so on. I could not imagine US remaining as it is now. Will it turn into something new and worthwhile – I hope so. Inward oriented and anti-globalist would be a change for a definite better.

    • Replies: @RobinG
  87. Kiza says:
    @Stonehands

    Ride on brother, could not agree with you more.

  88. For all those claiming that the far-right/populist government in Italy is for sovereignity……
    Really it is not, as the recent travel to Israel by Matteo Salvini to bow before the Zionists ruling there clearly left seeing to anyone who wants to do it…..The same way as Bolsonaro lacked time to bow before Nettanyahu, try to disolve the Brazilian state, stablish a US military base in Brazil, and sell the lands and riches of Brazil to foreign corporations for crumbs….

    The EU votes for the installation of new US missiles in Europe

    This is how Salvini works to “Make Italy Great Again”….The real thing is that all these far-right parties of “new” appearance have been built, organized, managed and funded by Trump´s spindoctor Bannon and International Fascist to weaken the EU towards its dismantlement…..Interests of the European people leave them cold…..

    • Replies: @Fatima Manoubia
  89. Cleburne says:
    @Iberiano

    Southerner here. Pretty simply, IMO. End the welfare system and cease food and energy deliveries — it being the case that the oil province of the South (eg the Permian, Haynesville, SCOOP/STACK and so on) are in the rural areas and hands of the whites. The blacks with the ability to do so will self-deport to the land of gibs, which is to say New England and New York.

    The rural/urban divide (or dare I saw country/Court) is not in the favor of the Globohomo, as the means of production — food, energy — is in the hands of the Redneck. As are the toolboxes and know-how to fix things.

  90. Cleburne says:
    @Wally

    Correct, and one needs to also consider the even huger amounts in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The better operators have gotten breakevens low enough to compete with onshore shale.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  91. Moi says:
    @Escher

    They same whites who genocided the Native Americans….?

  92. Moi says:
    @Max Payne

    Here’s how D.H. Lawrence saw America and Americans: “All the other stuff, the love, the democracy, the floundering into lust, is a sort of by-play. The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted.”

    and he said it in far fewer words than the Saker. It’s over. It was stillborn.

    • Replies: @Wally
  93. eah says:
    @Miro23

    Very important point here, that the dollar reserve currency status is going to go…

    When?

    The collapse of (demand for) the dollar, loss of ‘reserve currency’ status, hyperinflation, etc etc has been predicted for years and will continue to be predicted — but it won’t happen; not in your lifetime anyway — people who make financial bets on that typically lose a lot of money, or even go broke.

    It’s partly a question of alternatives — and there is no alternative today (nor to the English language), and none in sight — the US (and thus the dollar) is the world’s foremost safe haven, where the rule of law and courts protect assets — no one sees eg China as a safe haven (the Chinese vote with their feet and money on that).

    To suggest that SWIFT is the key to dollar supremacy is naive to the point of being dumb.

    Naturally the status of the dollar also depends somewhat on the fact the US is the world’s premiere political and military hegemonic power — but that will also not change in your lifetime — this fact is not unknown to the ‘powers-that-be’, which is a big reason the US in a typical year spends more on its military than the rest of the world combined.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
    , @peterAUS
  94. I do not see pattern of collapse as presented by Saker. There will not be sudden collapse unless Trump is impeached result of which would be complete turmoil,with unseen results.
    The way I do see it that there will be rise of socialist ideas, accompanied by rise of socialist parties.
    And so there will be considerable rise of power of governments over elites. As to opposite to the present situation. This will eventually end up with inflation which governments will regulate with price and wage control. I do not see any other development.

  95. “The carcass is rotting
    The flesh has been ripped from the bone
    A vile stench beckons a circle of cultures
    As the wind whispers to the unknown
    Willing slaves
    We embrace the will of tyrants as we sing praise to these exalted snakes
    The ancient gods have failed
    They burn with time
    Wretched demons now control our fate”

    • Replies: @follyofwar
  96. @Anon

    The US decline began when Nixon took us off the gold standard, we were dealing with fiat money from then on. Government was unbound and doomed. China started amassing gold in earnest in the 1980’s (Like Israel’s nuclear arsenal, everyone knows about it but no one talks about it) It is estimated that China has 20,000 tons https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/china-s-monetary-policy-must-change When the mainstream starts talking about this will be when the stuff has already hit the fan.

  97. @Colin Wright

    Your point about being dictated to by China is nothing but a Strawman argument. We are already dictated to by a tiny country the size of New Jersey. It sure isn’t China. Anyway, China does not go rampaging thru the Middle East killing masses of innocent people at the behest of the tiny illegally formed country just mentioned.

    The greatest disaster the US ever suffered was when tyrant Lincoln, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, prevented the South from seceding, which was their Constitutional right in what was up to then a Voluntary Republic. Now the Pledge says that the country is “Indivisible.” Other countries can break up but not the USA? If that’s not tyranny I don’t know what is.

  98. The collapse of the constitutional U.S. gov began in 1913 when the Zionist banking kabal got their unconstitutional FED and IRS through a corrupt congress and Potus and allowed the Zionists control over our money and gave the power to tax gains on this ether created money and the FED and IRS are both privately OWNED by the Zionists!

    With this control came wars and debt as the FED is a debt creating machine and this debt is laid on the people of America and the Zionist created wars for profit began with WWI and have continued down to the Mideast wars all for the goal of profit and a Zionist NWO!

    Just as a parasite destroys its host so shall Zionists destroy America!

    • Replies: @Jake
  99. annamaria says:
    @aGerman

    But the populace has been conditioned persistently and mercilessly about “Russain menace.”
    Cultivating western presstitutes, an overview: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-12/western-media-publishing-fake-news-about-russia-good-career-move-no-consequences

    Because on the Russia beat, it seems Western journalists can pretty much get away with any transgressions [anti-Russia lies and slander], without suffering career damage. Instead, paradoxically, it often seems to even lead to professional progression.

    … as the Canadian academic, Paul Robinson rightly notes, while “there’s a huge army of well-funded institutions and individuals now devoted to uncovering and countering ‘Russian disinformation,’ there seems to be little or no accountability for the false stories produced by Western sources (on Russia).”

  100. Mike P says:
    @Buck Ransom

    Wasn’t there a report last summer about the German army lacking rifles, so their recruits were training with broomsticks instead?

    That’s a very clever way to replace those rifles — the broomsticks can also make up for the lack of transportation or of an air force.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  101. Heros says:

    Orlov is a warmist of the worst kind. On his blog, any one daring to contradict his warmist dogma will instantly be blocked. Orlov treats climate deniers the same way Trotsky would have treated a Russian peasant family accused of anti-semitism. But then they are both jews, just doing what is good for the jews.

    Why doesn’t he skip all his 5 stage blather, cut to the chase, and say that the ice bergs melt, the polar bear starves, the oceans rise and civilization is lost.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  102. PeterMX says:

    If Trump has caused the US to lose influence it’s because he stands opposed to the extreme left wing communist anarchists that currently run most of Europe and the west (but are losing power fast). He appears to oppose wiping out whites by importing millions of non-whites and encouraging them to procreate with white women, he opposes shutting down manufacturing plants and then calling the newly unemployed losers and he’s more open minded about climate change science that is abusively used to wipe out jobs in leading industrial countries today. Today, those that advocate genocidal policies to wipe out white populations are held up as heroes by the largely Jewish owned media and those that oppose this genocide are “racists” the hateful “chosen” ones say. But opposition to these self destructive extreme leftists is growing and they are being replaced by people that want to improve the lives of their citizenry.

    Trump said he wanted the US to stop getting involved in wars all over the planet (to howls of derision from Jewish neo-cons). If that makes the US less influential, that might be only temporary as the US might be liked better in the long run. The globo homo degenerates that currently run western Europe have been very supportive of the US murdering Arabs for Jews, while at the same time posturing as “humanitarians” welcoming in the mostly young, unskilled (and sometimes criminally violent) men of those same countries. This has pleased those who wish the worst for those countries, perhaps still thirsting for more revenge for the wrongs they claim were done to them in WW II, but many Europeans appear to have had enough and they would like to retire their degenerate governments permanently and replace them with rulers that actually have the best interests of he people at heart.

  103. Agent76 says:

    “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.” Milton Friedman

    November 21, 2018 The homelessness crisis deepens across North America

    Homelessness is spiraling out of control across the US and Canada as laws are enacted to criminalize rough sleepers, reports John Clarke.

    https://www.counterfire.org/articles/analysis/19988-the-homelessness-crisis-deepens-across-north-america

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  104. @Anon

    I consider the U.S. to be the Western British Empire, or what’s left of it.

  105. Beckow says:
    @peterAUS

    Ukraine was supposed to be reckless but proved not to be. So far.

    They thought it was daring, a ‘game-changer’, a coup-de-grace permanently marginalising Russia. But it didn’t work, and Iraq-Syria-Libya in different ways are also failures. Moving forward troops into potentially exposed positions without controlling the situation has never been smart. It can trigger a disaster, or a quiet capitulation and withdrawal (most likely), but it is not a smart strategy.

    The forces Nato has in the conflict theaters are too small to accomplish much, but they are also sufficiently provocative to keep hostilities going. We can call it an imperial overstretch, but my favorite explanation is simple stupidity based on wanting to have a finger in every pie, byrocratic and ideological inertia. An old rule of conflict is that you do one thing at the time, focus on it, do it well, and then move on.

    A natural dynamic when one has forces everywhere (but too small to do much) is to expand into further conflicts, you could be right about Iran. It is like a dating dilemma: a problem here, problem there, and an alpha male often goes elsewhere and multiplies his own problems. A random drink in the afternoon mostly just gets you ready for another drink, and then another, eventually you just get sick.

    The lack of focus in Washington and understanding what ‘winning‘ means is astounding. Winning a war is not about being able to massacre a lot of one’s enemies. Winning is forcing one’s will on the enemy and taking over. In none of the recent conflicts has Nato-US achieved that. They either lost, created chaos, or even watched the enemy benefit more than themselves (Iran in Iraq or Russia in Ukraine). I am not saying that the enemies have it particularly good, but given that all of them are much weaker, the reality that they have fought Washington to standstill is a victory for them.

    What possible moves does Washington have left in Ukraine? More money? More arms? More ‘troops‘ on the ground? More propaganda? All that does is delay the eventual collapse in Kiev – they are the weaker party on the ground, they have already lost the key battles (Crimea), and they are way too expensive to maintain as a poor, unpredictable, emotional mistress far away from home territories. And the mistress is also aging badly, how do you think this ends?

    Going into Maidan was daring and could have been the game changer Obama’s team hoped for. But it didn’t work. Now they are angry at Russia, but what is the point? Putting 5,000 Nato troops in eastern Europe is militarily insignificant and politically poisonous. Giving Kiev another $100 billion every few years is not sustainable. Ok, if Russia collapses internally (or after Putin), maybe there is some way to salvage this. But if the strategy is based on the ‘enemy has clay feet and will collapse‘, are we even dealing with adults here? Who the f.. thought this was a good idea?

  106. @Stonehands

    “First the entitlements will have to end, including social security/pensions.”

    Old folks have been FORCED to pay into those so-called entitlements for their entire working lives. Now, when they can no longer work, and no one would hire them anyway, and it’s time to collect their “contributions” back, heartless people like you want to take them away. I guess your retirement program for these old geezers is to just shut up, curl up, and die.

  107. Beckow says:
    @Erebus

    2020-2024 will be very volatile, the conflicts are accelerating and the elite is very divided. But it will take much longer for any radical changes.

    We are living through a Chapter called ‘Causes‘, a long list of missteps, random events, weird personalities, accumulated debts and raising hostilities. Eventually it will lead to a sudden catastrophic event and dramatic changes. But there are still two things missing: a perception among most people that there are viable alternatives (China is not one), and the cumulative quantitative disasters are still 10-20 years away from being unmanageable. The debts can still go higher, and there can still be a few more million migrants – the system is strong enough to withstand it for another generation. Unless they make a fatal mistake like triggering internal conflict in the West, or starting one war too many.

    I agree that when it unravels, it will be very sudden and irreversible.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  108. @Johnny Walker Read

    Excellent poem. Could you tell me who wrote it?

    • Replies: @Johnny Walker Read
  109. The U.S. is experiencing every stage of collapse. Some more complete than others, but the nation is definitely in steep decline, and certainly is not the place it was even 15 years ago. I wouldn’t let Carter, Clinton or Bush I or Reagan, and just about every other president for the last 60 years off, either. All three were traitors in their own right.

    *I don’t care what the legal definition of traitor is. They each did enough damage to the nation and people, mostly in the service of special interests, to earn the label. Unfortunately, none will ever get the punishment they deserve.

  110. @Beckow

    The lack of focus in Washington and understanding what ‘winning‘ means is astounding.

    You cannot know what Washington wants to win.
    In one of Deighton’s Cold War novels one can read ‘the object of the game is to keep the game going’.
    Once NATO, or Pentagon, have won, they’re superfluous.
    Varoufakis is of the opinion that Merkel refuses to solve the euro crisis, because once it is resolved, Berlin is no longer the EU capital.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  111. @follyofwar

    Someone who is of the opinion that stealing from old people is not stealing ?
    Social security and pension are quite different things.
    Social security is direct transfer of income, through rhe tax system.
    Pension is just delayed salary, you save money from your income during the period in life you work, this money is paid back to you from the age you’re entitled to pension until you die.

  112. @Agent76

    “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.” Milton Friedman

    Ideologists like this in the USA are seen as economists ?
    I now understand how the derivatives disaster could happen.

    • Replies: @Agent76
  113. Wally says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Hugely misinformed, see my comment #75.

  114. @TheJester

    “There are reasons to claim that we are no longer a market-driven economy…”

    Another example in addition to the Federal Reserve Bank is that we are not allowed to trade with our next door neighbors without the feds getting involved. Hire your neighbor to come over and care for your ailing mother and the feds will crack down on you to file forms, get permission, and pay taxes.

    In a regular “job”, your employer has become an agent of the feds by collecting taxes, redirecting your pay into the financial markets, allowing you access to healthcare, etc.

    A first big step to take back our freedom is to delete line 7 from the Federal IRS 1040 form. That’s it. Delete one line from one form. Then wages, salaries, and tips will not be taxed by the federal income tax. Then we can say:

    “Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.” – Martin Luther King, Jr.

    • Replies: @turtle
  115. @Mike P

    Lack of blanks in the Dutch army was compensated by shouting ‘pang pang’.
    Lack of money by buying over the date or so USA mortar grenades, two deaths and one severely wounded in Mali.
    Putin regularly can be found under his desk to protect himself against armies like this.

    • Replies: @Mike P
  116. Wally says:
    @Moi

    LOL. You mean the “genocided” so called “Native Americans who weren’t genocided and you have no proof they were.

    In fact they are everywhere.

    Stone-age Europeans were the first to set foot on North America, beating American Indians by some 10,000 years, new archaeological evidence
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9110838/Stone-age-Europeans-were-the-first-to-set-foot-on-North-America.html

    • Replies: @Moi
  117. @PeterMX

    extreme left wing communist anarchists that currently run most of Europe and the west

    Can you mention a few names ?

    • Replies: @PeterMX
    , @Che Guava
  118. Wally says:
    @Moi

    Yeah boy, that’s exactly why millions upon millions of ‘immigrants’ have entered illegally, that’s exactly why millions upon millions are trying to get in.

    Do better next time.

    Regards.

    • Replies: @Harold Smith
  119. @Heros

    Orlov treats climate deniers the same way

    There are no climate, that is, CO2 deniers
    There are CO2 asserters, who are unable to back their assertions with evidence.

    The IPCC now confirms this ‘even if there is no CO2 warming, reduccing CO2 emissions will lead to a better income distribution in the world’.
    It does not occur to them that income redistribution in the world can be achieved with less cost, disruption and capital destruction.
    One seldom sees a calculation how much capital, for example, is destroyed by outlawing diesel cars.

  120. @eah

    It’s partly a question of alternatives — and there is no alternative today (nor to the English language), and none in sight — the US (and thus the dollar) is the world’s foremost safe haven

    Apparently not the slightest idea about what’s going on.
    Problem is that I do not know a site or article where developments since, say 2000, are described.
    2000 is an interesting year, the year in which Saddam decided to sell Iraqi oil for euros in future

  121. Jake says:

    The most important part of this article is Dmitry Orlov writing about Stage 5: Cultural Collapse. One way to understand what the US Elites have been up to since at least the early 1960s is that they have been using their wealth and power to destroy all Middle American senses of community.

    It is wrong to say they, intentionally or accidentally, have been destroying all American senses of community. They have not done anything to destroy Jewish or black or gay American senses of community. But they have acted to destroy white Middle American senses of community.

    • Replies: @apollonian
  122. Mike P says:
    @jilles dykstra

    “Pang pang” – LOL. I didn’t realize I understand Dutch 😉

    I will now proceed to out myself as a conspiracy theorist and proclaim that these ridiculous things are happening on purpose. Germany and Holland, by keeping their armies in disrepair, avoid having them sent into yet another war of on terror. I think this is the one good idea Mme. Merkel ever had, or at least allowed to be implemented.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  123. EugeneGur says:
    @peterAUS

    Business as usual.
    The one which started with (former) Yugoslavia ’91, developed further with Chechnya ’94, got mature with Yugoslavia ’99 and continued through Afghanistan ’01 to

    You are right about that – the business didn’t start with Ukraine but much earlier. But every step in that direction led to deterioration in the internal situation in the US as well as in the US international standing. The decline is quite remarkable in that how fast it’s been and that it’s entire self-inflicted.

    Some would call it victories.

    Of course you do – you Americans call everything a victory.That’s your modus operandi – declare victory and run away. Trump is attempting to do just that in Syria, as Bush did before him in Iraq. Sooner or later it’d be done in Afghanistan as well.

    I am just wondering what good it did for you: America destroyed Ukraine and the lives of millions of people while successfully wasting a few billions of the taxpayer money that could’ve been better spent at home. You somehow feel happier because of that? Or in more general terms, your country is somehow better off because of that? Looks like it’s infinitely worse. Yes, you can bask in the imperial glory but in reality, in any sense that matters, this yet another act of wanton destruction did you no good.

    How about we wait for the next move and see what happens ?
    I’d say……………………………………………………Iran.
    Or, just (re)hammering of “Little Russians” in Balkans, in meantime.

    You might be right about that. It’s possible that that monster of yours won’t be satisfied until it triggers a response that’d burry us all. But may be not. Underneath that imperial grandstanding, there has always been a touch of very reasonable cowardice in everything the US does. You love your precious hide too much, which BTW is your most admirable quality.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @NoseytheDuke
  124. @Wally

    Hmmm. Perhaps you don’t understand what is meant by “conventional” oil, or didn’t read my comment closely. Conventional oil, like the original Permian finds in the 1930s, returned a tremendous amount of energy for each unit invested in developing them, on the order of 80-100 times what was put in. In short, they were massively profitable.

    To your article on Permian oil, I quote:
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Profits-Remain-Elusive.html

    a new report from the Wall Street Journal finds that the shale industry is once again coming up short. Using data from FactSet, WSJ found that roughly 50 major U.S. oil producers burned through $2 billion more than they generated in the second quarter. While shale drillers succeeded in lowering costs during the oil market downturn that began in 2014, those efficiency gains have largely been tapped out.

    Moreover, beginning last year, a renewed drilling frenzy, particularly in the Permian, has led to a rebound in costs. Many shale executives had promised that the cost efficiencies were structural, locked in, and would not reverse. But that is now looking to be overly optimistic.

    The financials “have improved, but they’re not there yet in terms of making money,” Todd Heltman, a senior energy analyst at investment firm Neuberger Berman Group LLC, told the WSJ. “The realization is setting in that it’s going to take longer than investors thought for them to generate free cash flow and deliver more powerful earnings.”

    Oil galore is not the issue. Production of it returns no wealth to fund other activities… like a large welfare state, and a globe-spanning empire.

    • Replies: @Wally
    , @anarchyst
  125. Jake says:
    @DESERT FOX

    No, the collapse of the Constitutional government began with the election of the first Republicans and then began with a vengeance with the 1860 election of Abraham Lincoln.

    • Agree: apollonian
    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
  126. @Wally

    From your link:
    “It is important to note that the recent USGS survey includes estimates for unproven reserves (estimated resources based on geologic knowledge and theory) and technically recoverable reserves (resources available using current technology and industry practices). While reasonable conclusions can be drawn about the extent of resources in these basins, the approximations do not address future economic profitability. The future prices of hydrocarbons and their economic viability may vary due to environmental regulation, technology, specific geology, and cost of production. But don’t let that detract from the scale of this find.”

    I agree that the oil is technically recoverable. Do you agree with your own link that “cost of production” may leave that oil in the ground, forever?

    • Replies: @Cleburne
  127. PeterMX says:
    @jilles dykstra

    The current leadership of the German and French governments and almost every other western European government. The Christian Democrat chancellor (and former communist) Angela Merkel is just one example. Most of the others are wholehearted Cultural Marxists themselves. Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban and a few others are on the opposing side. Indeed, even the current Pope of the Catholic church should be the laughing stock of the Catholic Church. After about 2,000 years of considering homosexuality a sin, this new Pope says he’s OK with it.

    • Agree: Che Guava
  128. @Cleburne

    The capital required to produce offshore cannot be invested safely in a world where oil prices can crash as in 2014. Deepwater Horizon showed that there is a tremendous amount of oil in the Gulf. The disaster cost BP 62 billion dollars.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/07/14/bp-deepwater-horizon-costs/87087056/

    If you were an oil company executive, would YOU put money into the deepwater gulf to produce a commodity whose price swings could render your production unprofitable?

    • Replies: @Cleburne
  129. @follyofwar

    ‘Your point about being dictated to by China is nothing but a Strawman argument…’

    ! Your claim that my point is a ‘strawman argument’ is nothing but a strawman argument!

    You professed to look forward to the dismemberment of the United States on the grounds that you would be released from American global hegemony. I pointed out that our hegemony would in all probability merely be replaced with China’s.

    The inference is that you prefer to be dictated to by China. My forecast itself may or may not prove to be accurate — but in what way, shape, manner, or form is the argument itself illegitimate?

    You can’t just dispense with any objection to your arguments by yelling ‘strawman!’ It doesn’t work that way.

    I’ll make another point. You profess to look forward to an end to American hegemony. I’ll point out what the alternative to hegemony usually is: unceasing conflict. In China, it was the ‘Warring States’ period. In Europe it was the Middle Ages. The only counter-example I can think of is the uneasy ‘balance of power’ that prevailed in Europe — with interruptions — from Waterloo on.

    That ended in the cultural cataclysm of World War One.

    So be careful what you wish for. It may not be exciting, but I’d wish not for an end to hegemony, but a benign one. That exercised by America from 1945 to about 2000 is probably about as good as you could ever realistically hope for, and you should mourn its passing, not cackle with glee.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  130. Agent76 says:
    @jilles dykstra

    This thirteen year old gets it.

    Oct 2, 2014 13 year old girl Victoria Grant explains Extreme Corruption the cause of Extreme Poverty Governments

  131. @follyofwar

    ‘Your point about being dictated to by China is nothing but a Strawman argument. We are already dictated to by a tiny country the size of New Jersey. It sure isn’t China. Anyway, China does not go rampaging thru the Middle East killing masses of innocent people at the behest of the tiny illegally formed country just mentioned.

    The greatest disaster the US ever suffered was when tyrant Lincoln, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, prevented the South from seceding, which was their Constitutional right in what was up to then a Voluntary Republic. Now the Pledge says that the country is “Indivisible.” Other countries can break up but not the USA? If that’s not tyranny I don’t know what is.’

    The irony here is that I agree with much of what you say — Israel is like something out of ‘The Puppet Masters’ and the South was right.

    However I don’t even begin to agree with much of what you conclude from that. But please; don’t let that lead you to assume that I even begin to support that hideous little neo-Nazi statelet in the Middle East or that I have anything but the greatest admiration and affection for the courage and motives of those who fought for the Confederacy.

    I’d hate to be misunderstood on these points.

  132. @Jake

    Nathan Rothschild infamously said ie I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England for the man who controls the money supply controls the British Empire and I am that man and it is the same here in America the zionists control the FED and America!

    JFK tried to bypass the FED with executive order 1110 and returning the currency to US control and for his efforts the zionists had him shot in full view of the American people to show us who the real rulers are!

  133. peterAUS says:
    @chris

    But this is a much more reasonable comment than your original one (holy dopamine explosion, Batman!). As you imply, ultimately, it’s a judgement call as far as the next developments are concerned.

    Then we’ll have to disagree.

    I’ll reiterate:
    The main purpose of the article is the Kremlin propaganda made for Western audience, first and foremost, and then for those Russians who seek information on the West.
    The secondary purpose is weekly dopamine fix for all those who are fed with The Empire.

    As in any propaganda there are small bits of good points. In this piece, the only one I’ve found is, again:

    Our “Team Russia” analysts have it all wrong. It’s other way around.
    They believe, because the System is showing weakness and elements of crisis it will stop, even reverse, its power projection. I believe exactly the opposite. We’ll see more of it and, probably, some risky and reckless moves. The nature of The Beast, I am afraid.

    All what I am, personally, interested are (possible) conflicts around Iran, first and foremost and Ukraine, in that order. Oil and nukes, not necessarily in that order.
    Then, up to a point, a possible …ahm….”violence” in/around Kosovo region in Balkans. Nationalism and European Union, in that order.

    The rest re “Team Russia” guys’ articles/comments I skim over, just to get a certain…… feeling.

    Free speech and free will. Still.

  134. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    ….the 2020 election will mark a deep discontinuity in both US domestic and international politics. A very dangerous 4 yrs follows.

    Let’s cut to the chase here:

    Trump didn’t intend to win. He is in a deep trouble. He has two options:
    -Lose the next election and get destroyed afterwards, together with his bloodlines.
    -Fight to win, by any means necessary. Pure survival, probably even physical.

    The ONLY way to surely win the next elections is a war against Iran. Starting it, I mean………

    Simple as that.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    , @Erebus
  135. @Mike P

    Both Germany and the Netherlands sent jet fighters to the ME, we also have or had military in Mali and Afghanistan.
    The German jet fighters threw bombs, the Dutch just ‘collected information’, w’re told.
    In my, and also the opinion of quite a few Germans and Dutch, it is the other way round, our leaders are quite happy to support western fighting in the mentioned countries, the populations do not understand what w’re fighting for, there.
    Lithium and uranium are seldom mentioned.

    The bungling about blanks and mortar grenades, just stupid management, or fraud.
    The faulty mortar grenade, the invoice or agreement from the USA was quite clear: that these grenades were dangerous, for those who fired them.

    It is not the first time our Ministry of Defence did stupid things, with grave consequences, such as cancers with radar technicians, cancers with those painting with chromium paint.
    It seems they were not sufficiently warned about risks.

    I suppose the fact that we Dutch are completely unmilitaristic has to do with it.
    The Dutch minister of defence for decades has been the clown in the government.
    The last one was a reasonable pin up, that must be admitted.

    • Replies: @Che Guava
  136. anonymous[395] • Disclaimer says:
    @Beckow

    They thought it was daring, a ‘game-changer’, a coup-de-grace permanently marginalising Russia.

    One has to sneer at the utter stupidity and arrogance of those who thought that Putin would merely roll over for them and allow them to take it all. Of course Putin wasn’t going to allow Crimea to get snatched up and as a result Ukraine lost it. It wasn’t theirs to begin with, artificially attached in 1954 and now rejoined, liberated from a crooked, poor state and rejoined to a functional one with rising prospects.

    Now they are angry at Russia, but what is the point?

    May as well be angry at the moon for all the good it does. Of course, policies based on anger and vindictiveness can’t bring good results and who knows, small incidents could often touch off disastrous larger ones.
    BTW, you are one of the more sensible commenters here.

  137. @Jake

    Orlov’s Model Is Ridiculously Complex, Muddled

    I think Orlov rather “overthinks” this general CYCLIC process which was extremely well exposited by Oswald Spengler in “Decline of the West”–it’s CYCLICAL–a nation begins and is amazingly successful, prosperous, victorious, but after awhile inexorably becomes corrupt.

    Another way to observe this process is initial success of the culture leads to over-population of fools, scum, goons, losers, weaklings, etc.

    But thematically, the opposed concepts are objectivity vs. subjectivism (hence also, consequently, determinism vs. perfectly “free” will) which subjectivism becomes extreme hence satanistic, subjectivism the idea that all reality is product of mentality/consciousness by which subject becomes God, the creator, Satanism by definition.

    Thus, as in Roman and American instances, the FOUNDING generations were honest, hence objectivistic, but their overwhelming success led inexorably to following generations of effete, HUBRISITIC inferiors and weaklings who took-up subjectivist philosophy (as Immanuel Kant’s) in which, especially, they indulged in idea they could become “good” and morally virtuous–when dear old Christianity teaches that we’re all always mere sinners, and can never be “good”–which “good” doesn’t even exist (there’s no criterion that works).

    At a certain pt. then, these utterly corrupt, hubristic generations bring in the foremost, ultimate Satanists, the Jews (just ck their Talmud and Zohar), and it’s all over, for the Jews are the destroyers.

    Jews then are not the first cause of the corruption, but they are the zenith (of corruption), the ultimate Satanists who practice most sublime Satanism in way of COLLECTIVISTIC subjectivism, Jews colluding in most sublime “group-think,” Jews most dedicated, committed, and organized, hence leading and dominating all the other gentile Satanists/subjectivists who are more individualist and isolated. The Satanist then, generally, dominate the rest of the society by simple means of fear.

    The fatal instance (of corruption) comes when the society adopts CENTRAL-BANKING and a fiat-currency (see Mises.org for expo; use site search-engine for specific terms) which Satanists control to expanding the empire which naturally works to become literal world gov.–as in League of Nations and United Nations (UN), as we see, now pushing literal GENOCIDE of Agenda-21 and -2030.

    And there’s no real, easy solution to this CYCLIC process; the inferiors and weaklings must simply be killed-off, as by war, famine, and pestilence, till a survivable remnant takes the opportunity to restore a semblance of civilization if it is possible–otherwise it’s back to the stone-age.

    But Jews aren’t the first cause of the corruption–they’re mere disease, like typhus, or plague, taking advantage of the weakened, corrupted host. But if there’s to be any kind of turn-around for health of society, surely the Jews must be removed, they being the very “head” of proverbial “snake,” the rest of the gentile Satanists/subjectivists being relatively easy to mop-up, even though they’re much more numerous in quantity, they’re far less well organized–they need the Jews, foremost collectivists.

    • Replies: @Harold Smith
    , @Stonehands
  138. @Fatima Manoubia

    Connecting the dots…..amongst the “new” European far-right and the US “deep state”…..

    I guess you are all aware of the strong support the terrorist group “Mujahedeen E Khalq” ( MKO ) enjoys from the US government and both ends of US partisanship…..Well, what not everybody knew is where the “new” far-right European parties are getting the money neccessary to run their electoral campaigns from…..As a sample…..

    MKO terrorist group financed the extreme right of Spain

    But where MKO gets the money from….nobody has seen them working at anything anytime, except killing Iranian people, of course……One wonders whether all that money The Pentagon has no idea where has ended could be tracked to this point….Just saying…..

  139. @Wally

    The immigrants aren’t coming here because of the friendliness and hospitality of their American hosts; rather, they’re coming here because the economic prospects are still better for them here than they are back home.

  140. @follyofwar

    You’re not following what l am saying. That money for your retirement has been irreparably stolen and squandered on useless wars and gibs for people who game the system in exchange for votes.
    Read the whole comment instead of spewing your emotional ejaculations.

    • Replies: @follyofwar
  141. Cleburne says:
    @TomSchmidt

    The IOCs have price decks that go out thirty years. They are not as troubled by fluctuations as the onshore guys. Breakevens in some offshore plays are down to 35-40/bbl in some deep water plays.

    BP last week signed off on an expansion to their Mad Dog platform in the Gulf and announced a new 1b boe find near to one of their existing wells. Total had a huge discovery at Appomattox and Chevron has already lined up a rig — with 20k psi blowout preventers — for Anchor (both of those are in the Gulf).

    Also, the Gulf is producing record amounts of hydrocarbons, thanks to stuff put in place before the downturn.

    So short answer is… if I have the balance sheet and a 20-year investment horizon like an IOC, hell yes I would.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  142. ronbow says:

    “Further, the attractiveness of the US as an export market drops and the cost of imports to the US rises, thereby driving up cost inflation. A vicious spiral ensues in which the ability of the US government to borrow internationally to finance the gaping chasm of its various deficits becomes impaired.”

    Possible solution: Us

  143. Cleburne says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Tom, the cost of production in the oil patch has shown a trend of going lower and lower. A well that cost $10m two years ago costs $5m-$7m, depending on where you are. Same applies to offshore.

    I’m speaking based on what I’ve seen in the field of course, but… I would not bet against good ol boys with toolboxes.

    That’s something the globohomo doesn’t seem to realize either.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  144. @apollonian

    Excellent comment. (And you’ve just identified the first beast of Rev 13, something which not many people seem able to do).

  145. ronbow says:

    Possible Solution: US becomes self sufficient by application of tariffs–Trumps plan

    • Disagree: apollonian
    • Replies: @ronbow
  146. I would say that there is few things on common between what happened in the Soviet union and where USA is going. Firstly, in the summer of 1985 nothing was pointing to what would happen in 1991. Soviet union international standing was high and was not diminishing, debt was low. In 1982 Soviet foreighn debt was standing at around $4 billion. Economically USSR was at the top with USA, the country was growing , not as fast as under Stalin but still faster than any western country safe Japan and as we know Japanese growth was at the end at that time. There were some issues, where is there no issues anyway? But the country was going strong and nobody could foresee what would happen from objective social economic information. USA decline was gradual and by 2008 obvious to all with economy basically reduced to FIRE sector mostly, books cooking and exponentially growing debt which had become unplayable and unsustainable long time ago. The writing has been on the wall long enough. There definitelly must be thorough investigation into what w as s taking place at the very top cycles of the Soviet nomenclature after Brezhnev death but it is obvious the causes of the Soviet union demise lie at the very top. In reality it looks like the whole thing was intentional. At least it look this way. Supporting factor th as t allowed the whole thing to continue easy destruction by Krushev of the communist ideology and parochializing of the Soviet project equating it to basic instincts and mere material competition instead of the attempt of human and civilizational breakthrough revolution to the higher human level. USA has been sawing all branches it has been sitting upon long enough to foresee the final downfall. It is obvious from objective social economic indicators as well. The common denominator in both cases low level of ruling elites.

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
  147. Bubba says:
    @ronbow

    Indeed – the illegal immigration was relentlessly on the march after the ’86 amnesty. Any sentient American in the 90’s knew the great replacement was starting. You didn’t have to have your job “outsourced” to know it was going on.

    And it is forgotten, but the Clinton Administration’s Wall Street Golden Boy Robert Rubin made untold billions for himself & his Wall Street friends by destroying Americans who saved money by repealing the Glass-Steagall Act and letting the banks become hedge funds which led to the 2008 financial meltdown.

    And also forgotten is that Y2K mania was completely funded & manipulated by Wall Street and its international schemers. The insiders walked away with hundreds of billions. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of retirees from AT&T who had their 401K’s in Lucent, Worldcom, Global Crossing (just to name 3 out of the dozens of failed or bankrupt telecomm companies) lost everything and were left with only Social Security.

  148. @follyofwar

    Stupidity Has Inexorable Consequences–Get A Brain

    “Folly…” Thou are failing to catch-on, buddy. The demonstrable, overwhelming fact and reality is that, given the debt which now exists and must be paid, esp. by the following generations–the currency is ALREADY necessarily required to be soooooooooooooooooooo inflated (proliferated) to paying-off that ALREADY horrendously HUGE debt, that the pensions and “Soc. Security” Zog-bux will be virtually worthless–doth thou “get it”?

    In other words, EVEN if the payments in Soc. Sec. and pensions were DOUBLED OR TRIPPLED, the currency will be sooooooooooooooooooo reduced in value, the poor recipients will be lucky to buy a stick of gum w. those inflated, now-worthless Zog-bux.

    Just ck the recent news: in California, the state pensions (“CALPERS”) to be paid to retirees have been HEAVILY reduced (a), and (b) inflation has gone up, so the funds the retirees get are EVEN MORE reduced for buying-power.

    This is the sort of absolute DISASTER one gets w. constant, endless, deficit-spending and imperialist warfare, sucker. And don’t doubt these poor, stupid elders VOTED FOR IT ALL–that’s what thou fails to comprehend. The REAL victims are the coming younger generations who will be literally ENSLAVED to paying-off these debts voted by their stupid elders. GET A CLUE, sucker.

  149. @Biff

    “I’m a bit skeptical that the beltway empire will easily take a second or third or fifth place without tossing a few nukes around. Their self-described way of maintaining premier status is to pre-emptively destroy challengers – by violence if necessary.”

    I agree. It seems the madmen running the corrupt West are riding a tiger, and they’re slipping off. Will they just fall off and be mauled to death by the tiger, or will they instead choose to ride the tiger off of a cliff? I hope I’m wrong, but in light of their apparent demon-possessed nature, I believe they will take the cliff.

  150. @peterAUS

    If you have stopped reading, which you do all the time, and put your head in the sand, does not that mean you have become irrelevant?

  151. peterAUS says:
    @Beckow

    …Iraq-Syria-Libya in different ways are also failures.

    Disagree.
    Moving on.

  152. peterAUS says:
    @EugeneGur

    You might be right about that.

    I know.

    It’s possible that that monster of yours won’t be satisfied until it triggers a response that’d burry us all.

    Correct.

    But may be not.

    That too.

    BTW, you could start working on your social intelligence. I know it’s almost impossible for old school Russkies, but, miracles do happen.

    As for the end, I’ve done some editing:

    there has always been a touch of very reasonable cowardice in everything the Kremlin does. They love their precious hide and accumulated wealth too much, which BTW is their most despicable trait.

    If the team there had been just a bit more decisive, especially in Ukraine, perhaps the team in Washington would’t have been so reckless.
    Just a thought.

  153. Of the three hyperpowers of their time, only America in its time, the other two being the Romans and the British in the time long gone by, doesn’t have to exceedingly worry about its dominant minority looking for greener pastures and in the process abandoning it… there is no place beyond this last frontier for the Jew to explore.

    He has found his home and will fight tooth and nail and with every fiber in his body to enlarge and to preserve the American dominance for his benefit… of course, the historic native shouldn’t take it for granted that he will continue to have any role going forward, for he is slowly being replaced with the compliant crowd!

  154. peterAUS says:
    @Colin Wright

    Pretty much.

    Well, except

    …from 1945 to about 2000….

    I’d say “from 1945 to about 1992”

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  155. Lone Wolf says:

    Doomsday false prophet The Gawker is back!!! Now with another line of doomsday predictions, wrapping himself up on Orlov’s prestige as a real thinker to sell his doomsday trinketry. This time he’s providing us with a staged “framework” in which the empire is sinking into the sunset, and he brought Orlov to prove he is correct. While any or all of the stages can be generally applied to any society, The Gawker’s constant analogy of a US collapse with that of the former Soviet Union, seems to be more a projection of his own wishes to see the US down passing for “analysis.” His foreigner views of the US common people is so utterly simplistic (how is that US small town people greeting others is so important to make it into the upcoming “kkkatastrophe”?), is laughable. Living as I do in small town America, Trump-land territory (more than 90% voted for Trump in my county), some of the people I trust the most and do business with are Trump supporters, who, by the way, are the same people who greet everyone from their cars or smile at the supermarket, and they couldn’t care less whether you’re a democrat, a republican, or a Martian. Doomsayers are, in general, dumb, but those who buy their excretions are even dumber.

    Lone Wolf

  156. turtle says:
    @flashlight joe

    The so-called “income tax” is actually a productivity tax.
    We are penalized by the government for doing productive work (a.k.a. “ordinary income”).
    Suppose you owe, for example, $2000 in tax to the U.S. government.
    No problem, you say. I will do something productive, i.e. provide a needed good or service, and receive payment for my efforts, out of which I shall pay my taxes.
    Not so fast, says the U.S. government.
    Since you have done further productive work, you now owe us additional tax.
    The harder you work, the more money you owe.
    Rather like a tractor pull.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tractor_pulling

    The farther the tractor pulls the sled, the more difficult it gets

    .

    Can you say”disincentive to do anything productive?”

  157. Nearly 120 comments later and everyone either believes they are too intelligent to take seriously God’s word on the very soon coming biblical end times events or just simply too clueless.
    Sadly for approximately 98% of the world I have to put my money on the later.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  158. ronbow says:
    @ronbow

    apollonian disagrees that US should become self sufficient??

    • Replies: @apollonian
  159. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    Zion social behavior is very similar to chimp behavior.

    “Chimps are led by an alpha male and occasionally kill each other. Chimp groups keep very strict boundaries, which they viciously defend. In contrast, bonobos allow for overlap in their territories and will even mate across community lines. “

    Bonobo behavior is a lot better. I think we have to go to a higher level if we want to advance or do anything on this small planet. At least, we should attempt to go to the Bonobo social behavior level.

    https://knowledgenuts.com/2013/08/18/the-difference-between-chimps-and-bonobos/

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @NoseytheDuke
  160. Anone says:

    Same old same old Saker nonsense. Why bother reading it.

  161. Haven’t they devolved into a sad little subethnos of effeminate, porn-addicted overgrown boys who shave their pubic hair and need written permission to have sex without fear of being charged with rape?

    Technology is driving this, it is not particularly American nor is it “cultural Marxism” or a “Jewish conspiracy.” Every country that has moved to a post-industrial computer driven society has seen traditional sex roles degrade – the US, Japan, and Western Europe are obvious examples. But if you think it is not happening in Russia you don’t remember what Russia was like 30 years ago. Homosexuality is tolerated today to a degree that would have been unthinkable 30 years ago. Women are increasingly independent, and tell men to get lost in a way that was also unknown 30 years ago. Russian men are increasingly turning into drug-dependent video game players, just like in every developed country in the world. It is happening more slowly because most of Russia outside of Moscow is desperately poor, but the parts of Russia that are getting wealthier are obviously following the global trend.

    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
  162. Beckow says:
    @jilles dykstra

    …‘the object of the game is to keep the game going’. Once NATO, or Pentagon, have won, they’re superfluous.

    On some level that is true, but it is not a key dynamic in the decisions that we have seen. For one, it is hard to say it openly even within the inner sanctums of power. They have goals, often very specific goals, and those goals have not been achieved.

    There was a goal to remove Assad and deliver Syria to the Saudi-allied Sunni clans – it failed. There was a goal to remove Russia from its bases in Crimea and over time replace them with Nato. It also failed. There was a goal to use Iraq and Afghanistan as a staging place to attack and surround Iran. It failed, instead Iran has an allied government in Baghdad.

    Results matter. I get that the ‘game‘ is fun and profitable, and that chaos is also a secondary goal. But nothing can substitute for winning. Eventually stirring up sh..t and making money doing it gets old – it is hard to sell. There is such a thing is having a Pyrrha game, endless and pointless, expensive and futile, with losses and costs accumulating. Without winning somewhere soon, there will be a slow descend into ennui-filled post-modernism. But you cannot win if all you know is how to kill from distance and how to push propaganda through Western media. It doesn’t work that way, this is not Hollywood. In order to win West would have to be willing to sacrifice lives, to risk losing everything, to go in fully. I don’ think they are capable of it any more.

  163. @Cleburne

    Yes, I had great hope in it. It hasn’t happened yet. Will it happen?

    I recall reading descriptions of the machines that pump water, chemicals, and proppants down the horizontally-drilled wells (just the description of that discovery is amazing) to fracture the rock applying something like 250,000 horsepower. You need to put a lot of energy down the hole before getting energy back out of it. Contrast early conventional oil discoveries like Spindletop (or Deepwater Horizon) where the oil comes out under its own pressure. A much higher return on energy out for energy in.

    The Newcomen steam engine provides an interesting comparison. It was so inefficient that its only use was as a water pump at coal mines, since the coal used in running it was too expensive to transport for the amount needed. It was only with Watt’s improvements and high-pressure steam engines that the West was able to use coal to power steam engines away from the mines and use coal to transport, well, coal, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where more availability of power meant more coal which meant more power, etc. it was about 70 years between the invention and the improvement that made it practical.

    I haven’t seen the pathway to the improvement in fracked shale that lowers the energy investment so we get back to 60-1 on energy. I hope we get it.

  164. @ronbow

    Tariffs Are Simply More Taxation For Benefit Of Jew Monopolists

    There’s no necessity for tariffs–which is mere tax upon American consumers, protectionism for the internal Jew-owned monopolies. Don’t forget, Trump is owned by Israel, does things for Israel.

    Trump’s anti-globalist “nationalism” leads by ineluctable logic to states-rights as of old Confederate States of America.

    Actually, best thing for USA is to remove the central-bank (the Fed) which is mere criminal enterprise (see Mises.org; use their search-engine), and especially, restoring STATES-RIGHTS, nullification, and secession by which whites and Christians will achieve freedom, independence, and self-sufficiency. See TenthAmendmentCenter.com.

  165. @Cleburne

    I once owned Transocean before Deepwater Horizon. It hasn’t recovered not from that disaster, but from the oil spike top in 2008:
    https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=ipad_bm&ei=G7c7XMfKFOKhggehlYZ4&q=RIG+price+chart&oq=RIG+price+chart&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.3..0i22i30l4.10391.15332..15585…0.0..0.282.1439.11j3j1……0….1…….5..0i71j41j46i67i275j46i67j0i67j46i131j46i131i67i275j0.VAMsQ_KUAFk

    SLB, by contrast, peaked in 2015 and is recently around the lows of 2009. So oil services stocks have held up well. That chart on Transocean, by contrast, says they’re not making a lot of money, and there doesn’t seem to be much future growth. It suggests not as much money going into offshore.

  166. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    Well, I really don’t think we need any example from the mammal world. The history of humankind is choke full of examples. If there is one constant in human affairs it’s….well….I guess it started with Cain and Abel.
    Admire guys who get all metaphysical about it.
    My focus is, comparably, primitive, selfish even. Like…”how not to die in post-nuclear war world”. Shame on me.

    Onto more practical matters. I’d edit

    I think we have to go to a higher level if we want to advance or do anything on this small planet.

    into

    I think we have to go to a higher level if we want to survive next 30 years.

    And, also shame on me, I was delusional enough to believe we were onto it (“next level”) after the fall of The Wall. I was much younger then, though.

    When you look around us, do you…hahaha….really believe we could pull that of? Get to a higher level? I mean…..just look around you.

    I do have one, and just one hope. Primitive too, I am afraid. We shall get to the brink of nuclear Armaggedon. Now….at that very moment something will happen that we’ll change in a positive way. Get onto that “higher level”.

    Yes, I know how it sounds. Just can’t think of anything else.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  167. @Stonehands

    I did read the whole comment first, but I chose to lock in on your sentence about entitlements because the rest of your missive was so all over the place that I didn’t know what you were trying to say. Maybe I’m stupid, but I wasn’t emotional.

    • Replies: @Stonehands
  168. “And, also shame on me, I was delusional enough to believe we were onto it (“next level”) after the fall of The Wall. I was much younger then, though.”

    In reality that was failure to get to the next level and the fall into abyss.

  169. @Buck Ransom

    They did the same thing during a NATO exercise. And I read an article, which I can’t find, where they did the same in another NATO exercise years earlier. Link to the article from 2015:
    https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick-instead-guns-nato-exercise-307902

  170. @Peter Akuleyev

    This is the price for betraying oneself. Wanted to join the crowd and be like everyone else. I suspect only return to socialism albeit with lessons learned and Soviet power can turn this trend. Basically, Russia is going nowhere. There is no goal and no higher ideology. Projects to sell gas and oil to foreign consumers is hardly inspiring.

  171. @peterAUS

    “there has always been a touch of very reasonable cowardice in everything the Kremlin does. They love their precious hide and accumulated wealth too much, which BTW is their most despicable trait.”

    You changed what he wrote about USA. But I have to agree about Russia modern elites. Capitalists they are same everywhere and Russian elites are mostly thieves and traitors. The whole thing is about protecting their and not people interests and having a say in international capitalistic crowd.
    I am eagerly waiting for Shiogu , Lavrov, Medvedev or Putin sons if they have any to participate in all those military operations, just like kids of the Soviet leadership did.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  172. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    A real freedom of the press would get humanity to a higher level. The extreme suppression of different points of view by our “free” press in the west is why we are still at this low level of warmongering Chimp like thinking on this planet. We are treated like street horses with blinders on by our “free” press. So, we act according to how our free “press” says we should, since we have no other reference point. This Unz site and other such sites on the net are helping to break down this extremely low level of warmongering Chimp type of thinking that humanity has been living in for many centuries.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  173. Ace says:
    @Cyrano

    That is not capitalism. It’s cultural Marxism or, more plainly, betrayal. What does “capitalism” have to do with that?

  174. peterAUS says:
    @Sergey Krieger

    You changed what he wrote about USA.

    Yep.

    But I have to agree about Russia modern elites. Capitalists they are same everywhere and Russian elites are mostly thieves and traitors. The whole thing is about protecting their and not people interests and having a say in international capitalistic crowd.

    Aha. Especially the last sentence.

    I am eagerly waiting for Shiogu , Lavrov, Medvedev or Putin sons if they have any to participate in all those military operations, just like kids of the Soviet leadership did.

    Yeah.

    Schizophrenia in Washington against kleptocracy in Moscow. What could go wrong there…….

  175. Seraphim says:
    @Ace

    Capitalism is not averse to importing cheap labor, be them negroes, araboids, or whatever. The lower the IQ the better.

    • Replies: @Ace
  176. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    That’s an interesting point.
    Disagree, of course. Would be nice if true, but I am afraid the truth is somewhere else.

    ….we act according to how our free “press” says we should, since we have no other reference point…

    You act according to free press? Most of people posting here too? We all need free press for reference point? In this era (INTERNET with smartphones/tablets/laptops)?
    Y………….e…………….a…………..h………….

    Sheeple need that.

    And that is The Problem.

    Back to the issue at hand.
    So…if the press for, say, a month, pushes for a war against Iran, people will buy it? Go with it?
    I think they will because that’s how sheeple operate.

    Only a sharp (psychological) trauma can wake them up and force them to think, at least about immediate future. My take: FEAR of nuclear war.
    Or any existential fear. The M.A.D. simply feels the most practicable at the moment.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  177. renfro says:

    For any Americans on here. I wouldn’t waste time on articles like this.
    I would instead pay attention to the Fed, public debt, and tends in the US.

    Lately this from the Fed head:……and btw re raising interest rates, that is usually a move to fight inflation. And that the FED is not a long term planner isn’t a secret, lol. You’re gonna need lots of necessary items money to leave your children when they have to start paying off our debt.

    Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried’ about growing amount of US debt

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is concerned about the ballooning amount of United States debt.
    “I’m very worried about it,” Powell said at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C. “From the Fed’s standpoint, we’re really looking at a business cycle length: that’s our frame of reference. The long-run fiscal, nonsustainability of the U.S. federal government isn’t really something that plays into the medium term that is relevant for our policy decisions.”
    However, “it’s a long-run issue that we definitely need to face, and ultimately, will have no choice but to face,” he added.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/10/fed-chairman-powell-says-he-is-very-worried-about-growing-amount-of-us-debt.html

    • Replies: @Beckow
    , @Ilyana_Rozumova
    , @eah
  178. @DFH

    As you know, there is a sucker born every minute.

  179. Cyrano says:
    @Ace

    You know what a true hard core capitalist believes in? He believes that fake socialism is better than a real one. As a matter of fact a true hard core capitalist believes that anything is better than socialism – and they are wrong.

    • Replies: @Ace
  180. @apollonian

    Thanks, my friend. You have nailed a host of perrenial issues- temporal and eternal, in a way that will resonate with fallen modern man.

  181. slorter says:
    @Max Payne

    1992-2001 were the best years America ever had. When you’ve seen America that great, it’s hard to forget.

    Actually The United States after the second world war was when working Americans had it the greatest!

    The United States in the 1950s experienced marked economic growth manufacturing , construction and wages

  182. @PeterMX

    Left, right, left, right, just like your feet the left and the right are joined to the same body and are marching forward in the same direction. It’s long past time that people wake up to that simple fact.

  183. @Ace

    What is cultural Marxism? Marxism never was about race or gender. It is how capitalism is rotting and producing all kind of ugly ideas and affects.

    • Replies: @Ace
  184. @follyofwar

    Peace…you certainly aren’t stupid…after-all you’ve arrived and are posting on a forum that values the exchange of critical info that our effete institutions have taken upon themselves to censor.

  185. @EugeneGur

    FTR, Peter is not an American, I believe that he originates from the Balkans and currently resides in Australia.

    • Replies: @EugeneGur
  186. @peterAUS

    If Trump were to lose in 2020 there would be no point in destroying him, unless by that you mean destroying whatever reputation he had left. Trump would have nothing to gain by starting a war with Iran and much to lose. Anyway, presidents don’t start wars unless they are made to by those in power behind the curtain.

  187. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    I notice that you keep bringing up the idea of an attack on Iran within months of this year. Purim is on March 21 this year. For big attacks on the seven nations to destroy for the 9/11 false flag there have been attacks starting on Purim. Iraq was on Purim 2003, on March 18. Libya was attacked on Purim day, March 20 2011. This is an eight year cycle with these two. It is eight years since the last big attack, will there be a third Purim attack this year, to make three Purim wars? Is Iran on the list for it this year? Wesley Clark mentioned the seven. Iran is the only one of the seven not yet attacked. Iran seems to be in the“news” all the time in our “free” press as a “problem” for Israel.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  188. Robjil says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    Good video. We live on a Planet of Apes these days. I see nothing different the way Zion ruled West acts these days and that Chimp.

    • Replies: @cluelessdolts
  189. Che Guava says:
    @jilles dykstra

    Merkhin had quite a nice career as a top junior Socialist Unity Party (ruling party in DDR), apparatchik. It is hard to find a good reference, I have read much better and more detail, she and her supporters are working very hard to ‘clean’ search engines but this

    http://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/german-verfassungsschutz-hans-georg-maassen-fired-and-retired-for-saying-truth-in-commie-ddr-2-0.721918/

    has a couple of nice photos, one demonstrating that she really was at the top.

    In France, and as an EU fanatic in general, Daniel Cohn-Bendit.

    In Britain, much or most of Anthony Blair’s cabinet, now, much or most of Corbyn’s.

    I am sure that you will easily be able to find many more examples in Scandinavia, France, Holland, and Spain.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  190. EugeneGur says:
    @peterAUS

    If the team there had been just a bit more decisive, especially in Ukraine, perhaps the team in Washington would’t have been so reckless.
    Just a thought.

    Our team was as decisive as the circumstances warranted. Pray that they don’t warrant more.

    In Ukraine we’ve done what was possible to do without killing lots of people. I understand the Americans never have a problems with killing anyone. By we old school Russkies with not a hint of social intelligence, we do.

    It’s not our job to discipline your team in Washington, it’s yours. You are supposed to live in a democracy, aren’t you? Why don’t you just teach your leaders some manners?

  191. Che Guava says:
    @jilles dykstra

    I understand Afghanistan (NATO commitment), but why Mali? Anyway, neither is anywhere near the north Atlantic.

    Re. prev. reply, Blair and Corbyn themselves.

    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
  192. EugeneGur says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    Oh he isn’t, is he? Good to know. Perhaps, that’s where his pretense at impartiality comes from. And his eagerness to see what’d come out of an attack on Iran. Well, my friend, Australia isn’t as far as you think.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  193. Beckow says:
    @renfro

    …Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried’ about growing amount of US debt

    He basically says that debt is a problem, but not yet. US has both public and private debt growing faster than the sum of GNP growth+inflation. That is not sustainable. I am almost certain that eventually the debts will be devalued with a burst of inflation, painful but not really catastrophic. What will destroy US as it is today (and has been traditionally) is massive population growth combined with changed demographics. Those are real, and there are no known tools to address them.

    Regarding your dark view of the article and its glum predictions: there is an interesting symmetry in others talking the US economy and power down. US politicians and media have spent the last 15-20 years endlessly announcing an imminent economic, political and demographic collapse of Russia. Any day now, they have been telling us, Russia will collapse. During those years Russia’s economy tripled, population grew, living standards more than doubled, and they won a few wars. Maybe there is something about enemies always predicting the worst about each other. It is interesting to see that when the shoe is on another foot, the natives get pissed.

  194. @peterAUS

    ‘…I’d say “from 1945 to about 1992” ‘

    If you’re hoping to lure me into going to bat for the Clintons, you’re about to be sadly disappointed.

    Okay, 1992. Have it.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  195. @renfro

    Debt is about 21 trillion that is 21 thousand billions.
    Interest on debt is about 350 billion.
    Democrats are not willing to spend 5 billion on the wall.
    All you have to look at proportionality.
    ………………………………………………………………………..
    Something very wrong with this picture.

    • Replies: @renfro
  196. Winston2 says:
    @AP

    Lots of things are illegal for serfs, my client is one of the richest women in the world,the rich own
    the law.
    Maybe control would be a better word to use, but if you control something,you own it, in their eyes and mine.

  197. Art says:

    Eventually the US will rebound; I have no doubts about that at all. This is a big country with millions of immensely talented people, immense natural resources and no credible threat to it’s territory. But that can only happen after a real regime change

    “a real regime change” — sorry but that means Jews. Nothing good will happen until “they as a tribal force” are addressed.

    Jews are the chaos behind our money, our culture, and our institutions. Chaos is in their DNA and their Talmudic culture.

    We have to become a “whole” people again – all subscribing to Christian Western values.

    Do NO Harm — Art

  198. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    I notice that you keep bringing up the idea of an attack on Iran within months of this year.

    Not at all.
    I keep bringing up the idea of “engagement” with Iran within next two years.

    I am not quite on that Purim thingie; just onto Trump re-election thing.

    Iran is the only one of the seven not yet attacked. Iran seems to be in the“news” all the time in our “free” press as a “problem” for Israel.

    Naturally.
    As for the “free press”, let’s say that I have much less favorable opinion about a common man (even less a woman) when anything out of ordinary existence is concerned. Geopolitics, economy, politics, wars…stuff like that. Complicated and boring. Socializing, shopping and entertainment, that’s the real stuff.
    But….hehe…what does spring them from that stupor is fear. I mean, even the “free press” was seeping that out when Putin got into Syria. Then when Turks shot that plane down. The most I felt, when Trump was about to launch those missiles….list goes on. And all that mixed with bold moves (a few in my book) in Ukraine, especially taking the Crimea.
    But…..each time less and less, I am afraid (pun intended). Especially after that missile launch.

    And that’s the CATCH.

    • Replies: @Robjil
    , @Bill Jones
  199. Ace says:
    @Seraphim

    And the Soviets didn’t even import cheap labor. They just exploited the homies any way they wanted, low or high IQ. Same with the Chinese. Abysmal wages. Remember the old Soviet worker’s joke? The government pretends to pay us and we pretend to work.

  200. Biff says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    FAF – Fake As Fuck.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  201. renfro says:
    @Ilyana_Rozumova

    I am not concerned with spending on a wall. A wall that works would actually curb cost of housing, vetting and then returning illegals.

    I am concerned with debt that has no payback.

    The annual analysis from the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University says the US is on track to have spent nearly $6 trillion on war since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, according to a report released Wednesday.
    It gives a more accurate count than the pentagon estimates because it looks at all war-related costs — including the Pentagon’s war fund, related spending at the State Department, veterans care and interest payments — for military operations in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

    Creeping close to 30% of our debt spent on wars.

  202. Ace says:
    @Sergey Krieger

    You’re correct about Marxism but cultural Marxism did not spring from capitalism but was an innovation of communists who realized that the proletariat would never be the driving force behind revolution.

    The Frankfurt School scum decided the best way to bring down “capitalist” society was to attack its fundamental institutions by fanning resentment and envy and undermining church, family, and all manner of hierarchy.

    • Replies: @Stonehands
  203. @Sergey Krieger

    Around 1974 the “Economist Intelligence Unit” published, to smaller number of subscribers to the premium service, a western intelligence assessment which said that by 1989 the Soviet Union would collapse because of a declining ability to pump oil because of technology deficiencies and suggested that the US should extend petroleum industry technical assistance to the Soviet Union to prevent such a collapse and consequent instability.

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  204. Impeachment + Iran War =
    Collision made in hell. Prez will sell,
    But fears Russia and China drawn in.
    He will risk it to save his own skin.
    How little we plebs mean in the scheme!
    Little guy lost, no one hears the scream.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  205. @EugeneGur

    Australia isn’t as far as you think.

    Indeed, I’m standing on it.

  206. Cyrano says:
    @Ace

    Well now you know. But thanks to your “superior” knowledge that you acquired by the way of CNN, you believe that multiculturalism is a spontaneous manifestation of capitalist kindness. If you think you know everything, why bother me to explain capitalism to you? Phrases like “Cultural Marxism” are totally made up phony garbage that are so far removed from what’s really happening and what’s causing it – that there is no point trying to explain it to a genius like you. Carry on, my wayward son, you might stumble on some truth purely by accident, all other venues are – I am afraid – closed for you.

    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  207. @Biff

    All class! Fake as Fox News, Fake as CNN, Fake as WaPo, Fake as NYT, all better IMHO.

  208. @ploni almoni

    ploni almoni, I remember that. Around 1975-77 I came across, can’t remember where, the extract of a CIA assessment that the USSR would collapse in 1989, the cause given spending too high a percentage of GDP(around 30%) on the military. I thought to myself, keep this in mind and let’s see if the CIA knows its stuff. Well the CIA definitely knows its stuff. There are a lot of ding dongs, like The Faker who wrote this article, that think Americans are stupid. I got news for The Faker, we are the polar opposite of stupid, but we do like to act a bit like Slim Pickens in Strangelove, causes our adversaries to underestimate us, and drives the limeys nuts, hell, even Putin fell for the act.

    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @Seraphim
  209. RobinG says:
    @Kiza

    2020-2024 will be when things start shifting

    That’s when Zionist Israel will cease to be as such.

  210. RobinG says:
    @Max Payne

    What are you talking about! Those were the years when the US was routinely bombing the Hell out of a prostrate Iraq, killing by sanctions the 1/2 million Iraqi children that Madeleine Albright found so expendable.

    And will nobody mention Serbia?

  211. Seraphim says:
    @Bombercommand

    Russians do not underestimate Americans as the Americans underestimate Russians. They do not consider themselves the exceptional, indispensable nation which can dispense with learning about its adversaries, who can sincerely think that Russia is ‘a gas station masquerading as a country’ (have you heard a more imbecilic affirmation, emanated from a ‘leader’ of the ‘indispensable’?).
    But they read them correctly (they are so ‘transparent’ after all – Russkies can see that the emperor has no clothes), that’s why their counter-measures are so effective. The ‘gas station’ plays the big politics games for some 700 years before the ‘indispensable nation’ existed. They know some tricks. BTW, they invented ‘Maskirovka’.

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  212. onebornfree says: • Website

    RobinG says: “What are you talking about! Those were the years when the US was routinely bombing the Hell out of a prostrate Iraq, killing by sanctions the 1/2 million Iraqi children that Madeleine Albright found so expendable. And will nobody mention Serbia?”

    And murdering its own citizens by gas+ fire [e.g.Waco TX], and creating new false flag attacks [eg OK City bombing].

    Yup, “those were the days my friend, we thought they’d never end…”

    Regards, onebornfree

  213. sarz says:

    Mr Orlov’s views on finance – central to his scenario of collapse – strike me as less than authoritative. Here is a contrary view, in a brief video by Bill Still made during the presidential campaign, in response to general consternation at Trump’s claim about handling the huge debt.

    The monetary views of Ellen Brown, Michael Hudson and Paul Craig Roberts in support of debt-free state-issued money are also relevant.

  214. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS

    Trump didn’t intend to win. He is in a deep trouble.

    I agree that Trump has been in big trouble since he won, though I’d say that having no intention to win is contra-indicated by his extraordinarily well executed high energy campaign. From the first debate onwards he was going full blast, and from strength to strength. Had he run a campaign like Hillary’s, you’d have a point, but had he done that, Hillary would’ve won.

    He may have been surprised to win, but what put him in trouble is that many more “surprises” came thick and fast over subsequent months. If his campaign was well planned, his presidency wasn’t. Through oversight, naivete, or for lack of volunteers, he came into office with no like-minded, hard-nosed, politically savvy heavy lifters with him. He needed the Magnificent Seven, but he brought the Seven Dwarfs. The swamp made short work of them. Both he and they were obviously bewildered by what the swamp threw at them daily.

    I don’t think he’ll run in 2020. Not because he couldn’t win, but because POTUS is not something anybody half-way aware of what’s coming between 2020 & 2025 will want to be. By then, he’ll have a better idea than most of us.

    He has two options:
    -Lose the next election and get destroyed afterwards, together with his bloodlines.
    -Fight to win, by any means necessary. Pure survival, probably even physical.

    I don’t get this. Are you saying he’ll run, lose, and then get assassinated? Along with his family? Why would the swamp bother, if he’s out of the way? He may be “destroyed” in business/reputational terms, but he’ll be well into his 70s and is unlikely to live out his days in poverty.

    The ONLY way to surely win the next elections is a war against Iran. Starting it, I mean………

    If he starts a war with Iran, he’s sure to lose not only the Presidency, he may lose it before the election. If the US attacks along the “shock ‘n awe” lines Bolton was proposing to the Pentagon last September, there’s a very good chance Iran will strike back hard and asymmetrically. The US has a lot to lose, and a lot of vulnerabilities. Unless he goes nuclear, which would be catastrophic for US hegemony, I don’t see what he can do that wouldn’t cost America more dearly than it would cost Iran.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  215. @Che Guava

    Uranium for French nuclear reactors that produce eletricity

    • Replies: @Che Guava
  216. @Che Guava

    With his cooperation a biography was written about Kohl, the man stabbed in the back by Merkel.
    The last volume was published without Kohl’s permission, he did not read it before it was printed.
    Statements by Kohl about Merkel in this volume seem to be quite interesting, Kohl sued, was awarded a million or so € in damages.
    Dit not read it, suppose it was in line by what he said to a journalist during a dinner after he had stepped down, something like ‘she put the dagger in my back, and turned it’.
    In some political controversy, do not remember what, illegal party financing maybe, Merkel gave an interview that politically destroyed Kohl.

  217. eah says:
    @renfro

    Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried’ about growing amount of US debt

  218. @Moi

    Moi.. your point is well taken, the people on America when the Jewish Europeans tried to colonize America were genocide d. But who did the genocide? It was rarely the colonist, it was the propaganda driven forward adventures (sitting in their wealthy and safe homesteads) always looking for the gold that could be taken. Ship after ship left Europe with persons destined to a more treacherous world than the one they left, because those who immigrated were enticed by the propaganda, threat of jail, or by other means.. the new world was said to be made of gold.

    Then when no gold was discovered the same bankers and traders used propaganda to push the settlers west ward, that gold must be here somewhere? Millions died as the government protected bankster:capitalsit partnerships as they pushed the ordinary people to search for that which, if found, the pushed would never be allowed to own it. To keep the gold discovery process working, it was necessary to use the government funded military (just as is being done today in Yemen and Syria to kill off the competition for the gold and to eliminate the resistance that might impede the search for the gold: after all, the government protected bankster:capitalist chieftains were serious, the gold (oil) must be found and it must be given to them.

    The genocide was a government protected bankster:capitalist joint venture.. but everyday pioneers were forced to defend their lives against the natives who were themselves forced to defend their way of life against the on coming droves of propaganda powered settlers. So, I say it is or was the same people who today invade, kill, destroy and take (that is those running the USA, and its allied governments) are of the same breed and have the same intentions as did the Colonizing British and Dutch Colonizers. Once again, immigration was used as a back office operated weapon to take control of America from its natives and to find and profit from the gold .

    So i think it is unfair to suggest the most whites had anything to do with the genocides.Just as i think it is unfair to blame the whites for slavery, as very few whites owned any slaves and those who did were generally Bankster backed capitalist

  219. @follyofwar

    The lyrics are from songs on the album Give Us Extinction by the band All Out War. I’m really not sure who wrote the lyrics. Here are the lyrics for all the songs on Give Us Extinction. I’m not a fan of the music style I call “angry rock”, but I found the Lyrics on all these songs amazing and so truthful, hence the reason I’m sure they are pretty much unknown.
    https://genius.com/All-out-war-carcass-rot-lyrics

  220. gabriel says:
    @coolhandab

    Don’t mind him, is a Romanian young hipster who thinks working for a Western corporation is the apex of human existence.

    Also, “THE RUSSIANS ARE COMMING!”

  221. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    I notice you put an extreme importance on the “Fear factor” to motivate the masses. This fear factor was used on a grand scale with the 9/11 false flag. The US/Israel/Zion deep state has been doing so many little false flags since then. It has been used too many times. People had enough of these fear factor attacks. Thus, the fear factor is not working so good for rulers anymore.

    Purim thingie is a real thing for our Zion rulers. Here are some of the many Purim related actions by our rulers – The Nuremberg trial – 10 men hanged just like the ten sons of Haman, the enemy of the Jews of Persia. Julius Streicher yelled “Purimfest 1946” before he was hung. Stalin was poisoned on Purim 1953. 1991 war on Iraq ended on Purim. 2003 war on Iraq started on Purim. 2011 war on Libya started on Purim. Putin mentioned all the weapons he had on Purim 2018. He knows the game. The world had enough of Purim and fear factor games. It is all so Chimp like. We have to at least advance to the Bonobo level.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
    , @peterAUS
  222. @Forrest

    I agree that the US will recover. But I am not sure it has the ability to recover on its own.

    A lot will depend on in what geographic location will it recover. I too think that US will recover but it will “move”, if you will, slightly to the North. I could be wrong, of course.

    • Replies: @Forrest
  223. My little experiment basically shows that nearly 200 comments later and not one addresses or understands the biblical context of anything going on around us in current and very near future world events.

    The bible is clear on these immediate matters and has proven foreknowledge with 100% accuracy to date.

    Just begin with Revelation chapter 13.

    The end of the 2000 year spiritual diaspora in Hosea 6:1&2 of the Jewish people beginning with their rejection as messiah and crucifixion of Jesus will conclude in 2032 or 2033 and minus the 7 year 70th week of Daniel all these really bad things will begin between now and 2025 or 2026.

    What you personally believe is of no consequence if it differs from the Word of God.

    In God’s world either you believe or you don’t. You are either with Jesus or against Him.

    For it is written.

    • LOL: NoseytheDuke
  224. @Cyrano

    Phrases like “Cultural Marxism” are totally made up phony garbage

    It is a simulacra (I believe Kevin MacDonald came up with this thing while fuming about Frankfurt School, which is to Marxism as I am to Bangladesh) bound to confuse people who have very weak grasp of history, if any, and to hide the fact that so called Cultural Marxism has very little to do with Marxism as such, and in its Soviet version, would see all those people like Marcuse living out their life in mental institution, and, of course, hiding the most important fact that all this cultural and sexual perversion is a direct product of liberal capitalism and its “values”. In the end, LGBTQ…Z community is a very powerful market force and it generates a lot of business. And now, that we all observe an utter corruption of the remnants of the American Republic and of its vaunted “scholarship”on display daily, anyone with even rudimentary common sense can see how population is being mercilessly squeezed in support of globalist agenda which has zero to do with Marxism. And then, of course, there is an issue of war–this is where all this Cultural Marxism BS begins to break down completely.

    • Replies: @Cyrano
    , @Ace
  225. Cyrano says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    There is only one equality that matters – economic equality. That’s what Marxism was all about. If you had economic equality – racial inequality is pretty much impossible. If all ethnicities in US had the same living standards – how are you going to discriminate against them – by calling them names?

    It wouldn’t matter anyway, If someone made me a millionaire today – they are welcome to call me any names, as long as I can afford to travel around the world in style.

    “Cultural Marxism” means: “We can’t afford to make you all equal economically to us (power elites) but we are offering you the next best thing – you are going to be all equal amongst yourselves – racially”.

    Is that clever from the good old capitalists or what? The dummies don’t understand that multiculturalism is against the poor – because it doesn’t do anything for them, it simply protects the pockets of the rich via a phony humanism. It’s not even about cheap labor, it’s much more sinister than that. “Cultural Marxism” my a**.

    Marxism was always about economic equality, racial equality without touching economic equality is impossible and phony. I guess “Cultural Marxism” is supposed to imply that US recognizes all cultures as equal. Really? Last time I checked, there were no shows on Broadway in Swahili, or Urdu for that matter. But if one wants to get a clear grasp on things, a good place to start is to remember that capitalism has never been about equality and never will be.

  226. @TheJester

    The Jester seemed to turn serious, wrote: “Given the precedents that occurred with the fall of the Western Roman…”

    What about a secret plan for post-collapse of the American-Israeli Empire and a comparison to the exhausted Roman Empire?

    I posit support from the world’s 3 globalized Superpowers and the trio’s gradual success at establishment of Israel as Middle East hegemon.

    Just imagine a ZUS withdrawal from exhausted & decadent NYC/Washington D.C., and a slick Empire “pivot” East to establish Xerox copy of the forgotten & flourishing Byzantine Empire?

    • Replies: @ChuckOrloski
  227. @ChuckOrloski

    Hey Jester!

    ‘Scuse me, but I accidentally cut off my comment # 239 which intended to display just one rather small instance of ‘jesting” enemies, China & the ZUSA, having worked together to extract nuclear materials out of Nigeria, and likely transfer into dark hands who can make better use of the stuff. Refer to report below?

    https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/01/14/how-the-us-and-china-collaborated-to-get-nuclear-material-out-of-nigeria-and-away-from-terrorist-groups/

    Thank you, Jester! World’s filled with jesters in high places.

  228. Skeptikal says:
    @Simon in London

    How does one diagnose a high=trust society?
    I am genuinely curious.
    I wonder whether I live in such an area of the USA.

  229. Debomeg says:

    “…Syria’s fate will be decided by Russia, Iran and Turkey…” which you claim is good for Syria. What I think is that Syria ought to decide its fate, not Russia, Iran, Turkey…or the US, Israel, etc.

    As for US collapse, it has already happened but you’ll never see this on “reality” TV, aka Trump vs. Libtards or whatever. Orlov makes a lot of good points,but, like I imagine most Russians, he tends to think in collectives. I am an individual, and always will be. I don’t do collective. I am out of the system as much as I can be. Am on social security and medicare. If those systems collapse, so be it.

  230. peterAUS says:
    @Colin Wright

    If you’re hoping to lure me into going to bat for the Clintons, you’re about to be sadly disappointed.

    Hahaha…..

    Okay, 1992. Have it.

    I know.

    When you have time/inclination:

    Carrington–Cutileiro plan

    Quote:

    On 18 March 1992, all three sides signed the agreement; Alija Izetbegović for the Bosniaks, Radovan Karadžić for the Bosnian Serbs and Mate Boban for the Bosnian Croats.
    On 28 March 1992, after a meeting with US ambassador to Yugoslavia Warren Zimmermannin Sarajevo, Izetbegović withdrew his signature and declared his opposition to any division of Bosnia.

    BANG! In Europe. Then “humanitarian interventions”. Completed with Muslim state(s),US bases, puppet regimes etc.

    One of explanations, anyway.

  231. The Peter Zeihan take on what replaces the American military hegemenon is entertaining, albeit no more reliable than anybody’s predictions.

    Peter Zeihan on The New President & the World Challenges & Opportunities

    It’s a long video. He starts @ ~ 3 minute mark. He says Japan is going to build a new navy to thwart any Chinese global ambitions and Britain’s new business is going to be security contracts. For the Saudi’s for X months and the Malaysians for Y years and so forth. If your little boy is in grade school in London you want to read to him about Sir Francis Drake and condottieri.

    For the next 10-15 years though America’s bombs and whatnot will not be challenged.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  232. Forrest says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Let me be more specific. I do not think the US has any chance of recovering on its own.
    America is locked in a struggle between the fictitious constructs of left and right, sort of like 2 male elk in the mating season with their horns locked together in combat. ONLY an outside force can untangle and unlock them.
    ONLY Russia, China and the rest of the OSC can bring about a real change, and specifically by de-dollarizing world trade. It is as simple as that.
    It will hurt at first, like all surgical separations.

  233. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    From

    ….. though I’d say…

    to

    …. Both he and they were obviously bewildered by what the swamp threw at them daily

    I disagree and keep it short: He didn’t plan to win, hence all the rest. No vision, no team, no strategy, no plan, no principles.
    Now, if he were a great man he could’ve overcome all that. He isn’t.
    So here we are.

    I don’t think he’ll run in 2020.

    I think he will.

    I don’t get this.

    If he doesn’t run, or lose, they’ll DESTROY him through courts. Including everyone connected to him.

    If he starts a war with Iran, he’s sure to lose not only the Presidency, he may lose it before the election.

    Don’t think so. All his ratings were up, plus MSM on his side, when he showed willingness to go against Russia. So, my take: on the contrary.

    If the US attacks along the “shock ‘n awe” lines Bolton was proposing to the Pentagon last September, there’s a very good chance Iran will strike back hard and asymmetrically.

    Good. I doubt it, but good.

    The US has a lot to lose, and a lot of vulnerabilities. Unless he goes nuclear, which would be catastrophic for US hegemony, I don’t see what he can do that wouldn’t cost America more dearly than it would cost Iran.

    Don’t think so. Anyway, in several of my previous “discussions” about that “engagement” I put some ideas how it could, most likely, unravel. Hint: everybody wins (except some low level cannon fodder on both sides).

  234. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    I notice you put an extreme importance on the “Fear factor” to motivate the masses.

    I do.

    It has been used too many times. People had enough of these fear factor attacks. Thus, the fear factor is not working so good for rulers anymore.

    Haha….you think so?
    O.K.

    It is all so Chimp like. We have to at least advance to the Bonobo level.

    Agree.
    Any idea as to how? Except that “free press”, mind you.
    Or, you could have a point actually. Here it goes: “we”, by some miracle, get to control the “free press”.
    I am sure that in, say….6 months tops…..”we” could get masses wherever “we” would want them.
    Of course, providing clarifying before who “we” really are, what we want etc. Details…..

    All “we” need is, then, to get that control.
    Catch 22.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  235. @Cyrano

    “Cultural Marxism” means: “We can’t afford to make you all equal economically to us (power elites) but we are offering you the next best thing – you are going to be all equal amongst yourselves – racially”. Is that clever from the good old capitalists or what? The dummies don’t understand that multiculturalism is against the poor – because it doesn’t do anything for them, it simply protects the pockets of the rich via a phony humanism. It’s not even about cheap labor, it’s much more sinister than that. “Cultural Marxism” my a**.

    Very true, plus add here pervasive ignorance of largely Anglo “elites” of the world outside and how it goes around, and voila’. But society can only take so many cognitive dissonances before it descends into psychosis and we observe the process on a daily bases. Including decimation of white American working class which, once gone, will not prevent the system from crushing down.

    Last time I checked, there were no shows on Broadway in Swahili, or Urdu for that matter.

    Exactly, but after black Anna Karenina and Baron Mannerheim one can not discount a possibility. In fact, the probability of it only grows. In the end, someone has to laugh all the way to the bank.

  236. @Forrest

    Let me be more specific. I do not think the US has any chance of recovering on its own.

    Realistically, if the white core is preserved and some territorial “adjustments” are made, there is a chance.

    ONLY Russia, China and the rest of the OSC can bring about a real change, and specifically by de-dollarizing world trade.

    China is a question mark, at least for now. Russia is doing her own thing and, while de-dollarizing, Russia is quite content with her position of a secure observer.

    It will hurt at first, like all surgical separations.

    The hurt is already here, it is only going to increase. To what levels? I don’t know, could be pretty bad.

  237. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    It would not take more than a few months to deprogram the masses of the endless propaganda we all have lived in the past hundred years. A real “free press” would do it. It is possible. We have to give it a try for humanity to advance.

    Here is a quote from article that sums up what I am saying and many people are waking to all over on this tiny planet.

    https://operationdisclosure.blogspot.com/2017/06/operation-gladio-and-false-flag-muslim.html

    “We will never get the truth from the media. The sickening government approved mouthpieces will not put the pieces together for you. You are on our own to figure it out. These false flag attacks will continue and become more frequent. We can expect an Increased police presence, more attacks on free speech, more hate laws and more harassment from the TSA when we travel. We can also expect censorship of websites, continued youtube censorship and the banning of books that go against this phony government narrative. The Military Industrial Complex faced the same dilemma as the police, but their manufactured “War on Terror” fixed that. “

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  238. @simple_pseudonymic_handle

    Peter Zeihan

    Tried hard to find his comprehensive bio (not the all “geopolitical strategist” and “Fortune 500” upbeat BS on his site). My suggestion to you–whenever hearing anything from American graduate of Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce on strategy, military, force balance and other operational issues, not to mention integration of weapon systems–run for your life. As you would when being threatened with appendectomy by a blind former plumber.

  239. Yes, history repeats. Gorbacheof was tragedy. Trump is farce.

  240. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    A bit more about

    I notice you put an extreme importance on the “Fear factor” to motivate the masses.

    for obvious reason, I hope.

    An anecdote.

    I am an ex-military type, or so I say.

    As such, people of “polite society” tend to evade me (and other way around, of course, even more), which includes a lot of family contacts (they keep in touch with my wife).

    Hehehe…..so, it was funny, in a morbid way, when all those types suddenly wanted to speak or exchange emails with me. Suddenly, just after Trump (verbal) reaction to that gas thing and Kremlin (verbal) reaction to that reaction.

    You think they asked me about my health, business, happiness, the usual? Fuck no.
    All they were asking was my opinion, estimate…prediction……about one thing only:”Will we have a nuclear war”?
    Even people at my wife’s work were asking along the lines:”what is your husband/XXXXX saying about all this?”

    Of course, my moment of social recognition,fame, respect and such was brief.

    My point is: nobody of those types has asked me, so far, again, those things since.

    My take: they believe Kremlin will fold again.
    And…hehe…if Kremlin will fold, all the rest will too.

    So, what’s to worry about? Life, business as usual. Work, shopping, social media and entertainment.

    No fear.

    • Replies: @ChuckOrloski
  241. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    Uhm….ahm…..”fake Muslim terrorist attacks….”….!?!
    Hahahahaha…………….oh man….you got me. You are good. Fake……….MUSLIM……attacks ?!?!
    Terrorist or not is a matter of perspective, in my book. Terrorist/freedom fighter and similar stuff.

    That’s funny. Just funny. Good on you.

    “Religion of peace”, a?

    Moving on.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  242. @Forrest

    Wisely, & seeing through Israeli Juniper tree gardens with rotten roots, Forrest wrote: “ONLY Russia, China and the rest of the OSC can bring about a real change, and specifically by de-dollarizing world trade.”

    I get a distinct impression that Trump administration policy is purposely & deviately forwarding de-dollariziation of “world trade.”

    Thank you, Forrest.

  243. @peterAUS

    Incredibly narcissist, Peter AUS wrote: “I am an ex-military type, or so I say.
    As such, people of “polite society” tend to evade me (and other way around, of course, even more), which includes a lot of family contacts (they keep in touch with my wife).”

    An ex-military type, eh? Civilian Air Patrol in your teens? Junior Hasbara Komsomol Rangers? (Zigh) What the hell is an ex-military type? Are you a Clinton offspring, out of wedlock? Gimme a freaking break, AUS!

    Lord have mercy.

    Since your family is denied both talking & exchanging emails with you on topics, for example, “that gas thing and Kremlin (verbal) reaction to that reaction thing,” I really hope The Saker tunes into his article comments, and enlists you for an interview instead of doing nobodies like Dmitri Orlov.

    • Agree: bluedog
  244. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    9/11 was a US/Israel creation. It was blamed on Muslims. So it was a fake Muslim attack. The 9/11 number is so Judaic. According to Judaic numerology, one less or one more than the Tree of life number ten is evil. There are ten sefirots (aspects) of Yahweh’s Tree of Life. The seven nations to destroy theme quoted by Wesley Clark is again very Judaic. It comes from Deuteronomy 7:1-2 . In it, it says to destroy seven nations for Yahweh. Here are some lovely quotes from that passage:

    “When the LORD your God brings you into the land which you go to a possess, and has cast out many nations before you”

    ” seven nations greater and mightier than you, 2 “and when the LORD your God delivers them over to you, you shall conquer them and utterly destroy them. You shall make no covenant with them nor show mercy to them.”

    I cut out the seven nations in the middle because this Old testament game can go on forever. New seven nations to destroy can be placed in that passage. Why? Here is quote why we are in such a mess today with our Zionist advisors ruling us in the west. The Old testament games never ends in their heads. The Noheg l’doros shtick can be pulled out of a hat endlessly to terrorize our entire planet.

    Here is quote from a Chabad site about this glorious Noheg L’doros shtick:

    https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/961561/jewish/Positive-Commandment-187.htm

    ” Since these seven nations no longer exist4 a person could think that this commandment is not noheg l’doros [for all generations5]. But only someone who does not understand the concept of noheg l’doros would think such a thing. A command that can be fulfilled without being limited to a certain time is considered noheg l’doros, because if the act would become possible in any generation, the mitzvah would apply.”

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  245. Erebus says:

    I disagree and keep it short: He didn’t plan to win, hence all the rest. No vision, no team, no strategy, no plan, no principles.

    I know you disagree, and I’ll agree it’s short, but stating it’s so doesn’t make it so. You’re saying that a campaign that’s already being studied by poli-sci people for its strategic focus and tight execution was actually designed and run with the intent to lose? You should tell those poli-sci guys they’ve got it backwards. You’re not making sense.

    All of this is reading tea leaves of course, but I think he thought he had a team, and that their strategy and plan would be good enough. He thought, in other words, how the USM thinks. Blow things up with a well executed, shock ‘n awe campaign, and hope things will sort themselves after. After a successful assault on the Oval Office, he’d rule like a CEO, using the shareholders to back him. He, his team, and the shareholders, like the USM, forgot about the top 3-4 layers of management, and the management nailed his shoes to the floor. He and the team had no idea how the calculus of power in DC worked and he had no political power base in Washington to work it. Just like 2004 Baghdad. The Republican party filled the voids with their people and simply overwhelmed his team with experience.

    I think he will.

    That’s nice. Why do you think so? Any reason?

    … they’ll DESTROY him through courts…

    That’s nice. Why do you think so? Any reason?

    All his ratings were up, plus MSM on his side, when he showed willingness to go against Russia.

    And they were after the 2 missile attacks as well, but I’d think that, with your much vaunted military experience, you’d know that “starting a war” is not the same as blustering, or like sending choreographed missile salvoes that have been pre-vetted by the enemy. When Iran strikes back, they’ll strike back asymmetrically and the US will lose real assets fast. 50 guys with 50 cars and the bare minimum of organization can send the entire continental US back to 1899 in a heartbeat, and there’d be no way to even know who did it. Or Onyx missiles take down a carrier and/or a destroyer. There’s literally dozens of similarly devastating attacks that Iran can pull off, in any combination including unleashing HZB on Israel, and its Iraqi militias on US assets in Iraq. Nobody’s saying Iran wouldn’t be brutalized, but the US would take hits. If it took a hit like the first I mentioned, there’d be no way to even hold an election, or a position worth calling “President”.

    Saddam wasn’t that clever, and lost most of his General & staff to American bribes before the war. Unless the Americans have managed to similarly infiltrate Iran’s officer corps, there’s no way they’d even try it. Adm. Fallon said: “Not on my watch” and I’d bet big that Dunford would say the same.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  246. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    Why do you think so? Any reason?

    You presented me with a hard choice here. Happens often in this pub.
    1. Debate the obvious.
    2. Go fishing.

    When Iran strikes back, they’ll strike back asymmetrically and the US will lose real assets fast. 50 guys with 50 cars and the bare minimum of organization can send the entire continental US back to 1899 in a heartbeat, and there’d be no way to even know who did it.

    I just think you overestimate the Iranians and their allies.

    Or Onyx missiles take down a carrier and/or a destroyer. There’s literally dozens of similarly devastating attacks that Iran can pull off, in any combination including unleashing HZB on Israel, and its Iraqi militias on US assets in Iraq.

    Yeah…..sure. They can, just won’t.

    Nobody’s saying Iran wouldn’t be brutalized, but the US would take hits.

    Yep.

    If it took a hit like the first I mentioned, there’d be no way to even hold an election, or a position worth calling “President”.

    “If” won’t happen.

    Anyway, disagree overall.

    The most likely scenario is:
    USA executes stand of strikes and plenty of them, but not too much->Iranians take it, without escalating->peace process/conference->business as usual.
    Trump stays on the throne, mullahs the same. Some dead guys around and some property damaged.
    Shows goes on.

    Now…..if not carefully managed the above can, with ease, move on the next level.

    We’ll see.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @NoseytheDuke
  247. Erebus says:
    @Forrest

    I do not think the US has any chance of recovering on its own.

    Not in the near term, and never in the sense of recovering its international position.

    ONLY Russia, China and the rest of the OSC can bring about a real change, and specifically by de-dollarizing world trade.

    America’s power stands on 3 legs – control of world trade & finance, supported by “Brand America’s” socio-economic-political influence, and the USM.

    China & Russia are de-dollarizing, and encouraging others to follow with some success. The only way for the US to stop the process is to bring more resources into the dollar system. After the last 2 decades of abuse, “Brand America” isn’t of much use, and while they’re de-dollarizing Russia & China are using blocking maneuvers to thwart the USM’s attempts.

    This will go on until a tipping point is reached where the US has to decide whether to ask for assistance to soften the collapse, or make a last desperate lunge to destroy one or the other and make a deal with the 2nd. If the US’ population maintains its ignorance of what’s at stake, they can be duped into supporting the latter, and so it depends on America’s owners to make the right decision.

    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  248. seriously says:
    @Guy Thornton

    Re: The Humpty Dumpty character sitting on the wall at the top of this (excellent) article looks very much like Mike Pompeo.

    He’s not worried. That fat fucker thinks he will be “raised” during the rapture. People like him, have “absolutely no doubt” about it–just like Saker’s absolute “faith” in America’s rebound (even after the Biblical Armageddon?)

    • Replies: @whatmeworry
  249. Okechukwu says:

    Orlov is a clown. Thirty years from now he’ll still be going on about the impending collapse of the USA.

    These Russian expats are obsessed with this stuff because they still harbor latent nostalgia for the USSR. They would like to see the USA suffer the same fate, in which case both will have lost the cold war rather than the USSR being the sole loser. But the two situations couldn’t be further apart.

  250. @Ace

    “The Frankfurt School scum decided the best way to bring down “capitalist” society…”

    Courtesy of Franz Boaz and Columbia University- and the coronation of swarms of multi- generational PHD’s who networked and nepotised their way through our institutions. The red scare was- and is- very real and has resulted in the de- balling of America.

    • Replies: @Ace
  251. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS

    When Iran strikes back, they’ll strike back asymmetrically and the US will lose real assets fast. 50 guys with 50 cars and the bare minimum of organization can send the entire continental US back to 1899 in a heartbeat, and there’d be no way to even know who did it.

    I just think you overestimate the Iranians and their allies.I just think you overestimate the Iranians and their allies.

    Overestimate what? Their ability to drive a car? Their ability to raise 5o guys? The technicalities of such an operation are simplicity itself, and Iran probably has 50 suitable sleepers already stationed in the US.

    The most likely scenario is:
    USA executes stand of strikes and plenty of them, but not too much->Iranians take it, without escalating->peace process/conference->business as usual.
    Trump stays on the throne, mullahs the same. Some dead guys around and some property damaged.
    Shows goes on.

    Now you’re backtracking. You said Trump could save himself by “starting a war” with Iran, and now its just another choreographed missile strike. In normal discourse, the two are miles apart.

    Now…..if not carefully managed the above can, with ease, move on the next level.

    IOW, if not choreographed, it would move on to war? Or another, more elaborately choreographed exchange? Or what?

    I liked the coherent Pete better.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  252. @Okechukwu

    The Economic Time Bomb: How You Can Profit from the Emerging Crises
    Harry Browne (1989)

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0312025815/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i17

  253. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    Overestimate what?

    The will.

    In normal discourse, the two are miles apart.

    “USA executes stand of strikes and plenty of them…”
    Plenty“.

    ….if not choreographed, it would move on to war…

    If Iranians try to seriously fight back they’ll get smashed to pieces.

    I liked the coherent Pete better

    I like your types all the same. General vibes and attitudes about topics, with crumbs of information. That’s what communicating with opponents is all about, isn’t it? Better than with drones on “own” side. As long as it’s civil, of course.I guess …hehe…we are just about to cross that line, aren’t we?

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Robjil
  254. Ace says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    . . . the “Frankfurt School”, or Institute for Social Research, [was] set up by a group of Marxist intellectuals in Germany in 1923, affiliated to the University of Frankfurt and independently of the Communist Party, which has been influential in the development of Marxist theory ever since.

    https://www.marxists.org/subject/frankfurt-school/

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  255. Ace says:
    @Stonehands

    Reading about the academic interests of the members of the FS is illuminating. It was but a short bus ride from where they were to the inane stuff that infests academia now. (The Postmodernism Generator is a fun experience.) There language became divorced from meaning and “critical theory” set all its adherents on the road to fouling their own nests (and ours). I don’t know what was so attractive about finding 100 ways to establish that your grandmother was a whore but such became the passion of the the cultural Marxists and their academic, press, and political spawn ever since.

    The Red Scare was indeed real. That is to say alarm over infestation by the reds was justified and McCarthy will go down as one of the great American patriots and realists. He committed the unpardonable sin of “noticing,” however, and probably paid with his life for it.

    Diana West has taken a lot of vicious flak from David Horowitz and Ron Radosh for “noticing” too and, though I think those two are genuine rightists, they were bizarrely motivated to disparage West’s book, America Betrayal, which went beyond the typical work focused on Soviet espionage and the purloining of document. She had the temerity to suggest that documents may have flowed east but influence most certainly flowed west right into the White House and the federal bureaucracy. My theory regarding the attack on her is that those two were alarmed by the dangerous issue of INFLUENCE and if you focus on revolutionary/ultra-radical politics, you threaten (given the massive over-representation of Jews in such politics in America, Europe, and Russia) to inspire the question, For what reason did and do Jews seek to influence/undermine/control the United State?

    Garden variety conservative politics are just fine so long as you do not draw the boundaries of your inquiry to broadly. Just an hypothesis for now. West seems to have no interest in such a theory.

  256. @peterAUS

    A similar sort of hubris was widely on display prior to Tet. So much for military experience.

  257. @Okechukwu

    Actually, I think it would be more accurate to say that the real enemies of the Russians are the same enemies of the American people and it’s a shame that many fail to see that. Know your enemy, your real enemies are within. Best wishes.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
  258. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS

    If Iranians try to seriously fight back they’ll get smashed to pieces.

    To do that, the US would have to either invade or go nuclear. The former is a rank impossibility, though the latter is possible.

    If they tried the former, they’d need an army significantly larger than the one they have available in the M.E. now, and would even if they pulled everything from SK, JP, DE and wherever else they could find them. Pulling, of course, means those countries are lost as vassals, so they’d be trading rich vassals for a destroyed Iran.
    Then there’s the time it would take to plan, provision and mass forces. Months during which Iran would prepare itself well, and would doubtless acquire whatever they were missing from Russia, China, N. Korea and their domestic production would be running 24/7 with extra staff.
    The only way I see this scenario working is if the US succeeded in bribing Iran’s hi-level officer staff to abandon their post. That’s what killed Saddam, and almost killed Assad. I’d guess that Iran saw what happened and have taken measures to preclude that.

    If the US went nuclear, as they may well, it would become the world’s most exceptional criminal pariah state, and Brand America would be utterly destroyed. Nations would be backing away in abhorrence, and more. The 50 men scenario would still play out, as would dollar repudiation, and the US would be no more. Hardly worth the candle, I’d say.

    A few salvoes a la April 2017 & 2018 isn’t going to amount to “smashed to pieces” even if the US sent an order of magnitude higher number of missiles. Iran’s got Russian S-300s and the domestic variant called Bavar is to be rolled out imminently. Flying over Iran isn’t going to be like Iraq, or even like Yugoslavia. Speaking of which, NATO attacked Yugoslavia for 2.5 months flying some 10,000 strike sorties. It wasn’t “smashed to pieces” physically, and its breakup was due to factors which don’t appear in Iran’s case. So what are you talking about?

    …we are just about to cross that line, aren’t we?

    Who? Us? Never. 🙂

    • Replies: @Ilyana_Rozumova
    , @peterAUS
  259. @Seraphim

    Seraphim, you have fallen for our “maskirovska”, you think Americans are stupid. McCain and his “gas station” remark have zero to do with decision making by our professionals, and that is why you hear it trumpeted in the media. Quite obviously, The United States does not “dispense with learning about its adversaries”, as the CIA assessment predicting the exact year the USSR collapsed demonstrates. You clearly do not understand how the US is playing Russia. We have no intention of attacking Russia(although it appears otherwise), we are simply putting them in a vise to prevent them from action in concert with China when the time comes to teach the tiddlywinks a lesson in naval warfare. China has blundered, building an economy totally dependant on the sea lanes for import/export without first building a navy that can dominate the World Ocean. China is easily blockaded, and it will be blockaded far from their coast and their land based air. Blocking the Strait of Malacca alone is enough. Then their navy will have to come out. They will be dealt with carefully. No, Russia did not “invent” maskirovka, armies throughout history have used this “masking”. The US used maskirovka in 1944 to trick the Kraut that we would be landing at Calais so their strategic reserve was stuck far from Normandy(an army of fake tanks poised opposite Calais). We used maskirovka against Japan at Midway(a fake radio message that Midway’s desalinasation plant had broken caused the Japanese to reveal that ” Alpha” was Midway, and blocking a refueling rondevous for their long range reconaisance aircraft meant they didn’t know our aircraft carriers had left Pearl) and then we bushwhacked ’em. Strictly speaking, “maskirovka” should be discussed as a part of Soviet Deep Operations war fighting doctrine(it has a function similar to the Calais ploy of 1944). I, a stupid American, could give you a detailed lecture on Soviet Deep Operations, a fascinating subject.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @NoseytheDuke
  260. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    I notice that you really believe that the US “must” and “will” attack Iran. For what reason “must” it do so? Is it for “the seven nations to destroy game” from 500 BC. – Deuteronomy 7.1-2? We are in the 21st century and not in 500 BC.

    • Replies: @Che Guava
    , @peterAUS
  261. Che Guava says:
    @jilles dykstra

    The Dutch are not French, Mali was never part of the Dutch colonial empire, gay Micron has decided to shut down much of the nuclear electricity generation of France, so what were a few Nederlansche soldiers doing there?

    On lighter notes, I was sleepless last night, so, only remembered, but was intererested in the unimaginably ancient natural reactors in Gabon, it is very interesting, last I was reading of it, presented as one. It seems that there was a series of them, 17, in the same seam. French wanted to mine them all, geologists saved the last of them. Which is good.

    Almost 2,000 million years ago, and (in geological time), not long after oxygen concentration rose.

    Cheers.

  262. Che Guava says:

    The link that I posted also has a link to the version in German (not noticing at the time, but later did), I can only read abt. half to two-thirds, but you are a fluent reader of it, so I am seriously recommending you are reading the original comments on Merkhin, in German.

    From what I can read, it is factual. The photos sure are, so what minor functionary is in the frame with the big party leaders like the young and the prematurely middle-aged looking (but still young) Merkhin?

  263. Che Guava says:
    @Robjil

    Very well said, Robjil.

    This peterAUS is just the cheap ziocon.

  264. @Ace

    . . . the “Frankfurt School”, or Institute for Social Research, [was] set up by a group of Marxist

    There are few experiences of setting up a state based on “Marxism” (quotation marks are intentional) and all of them have zero relation to pseudo-intellectual BS produced by Frankfurt “school” which proclaimed itself Marxist. The most important practical Marxist state, Soviet Union, as I stated before, viewed this Frankfurt School as nothing more than ideological masturbation having little to do with practical implementation of the Marxist theory which is primarily economic. Frankfurt School was and is nothing more than realistically a fringe group with very limited influence where it really matters–in issues of the state management and economy. Mechanisms and evolution of Marxism in USSR are not known or studied in the West properly–they are beyond the grasp of the most Western “scholarship” and are based mostly on dissident (and money grabbing) “scholars” from USSR, hearsay and urban legends. No surprise here. Unlike Hegelian philosophy or Critical “Theory”, practical matters of state management are way more complex and hard for understanding.

    To prove my point, from your source, and I quote:

    The intellectuals who founded the Frankfurt Institut deliberatively cut out a space for the development of Marxist theory, inside the “academy” and independently of all kinds of political party.

    Here is your answer. It is as Marxist as I am Chinese. In general, any “humanities” “development” of anything is a pseudo-science, good only for producing catchy memes, nothing more. Knowledge of history could have helped somewhat but the way “history” is taught in Anglo world, one shouldn’t be surprised that its “humanities” so called academy can not find its own ass with both hands in a brightly lit room. I am no Marxist but seeing all those feeble attempts to blame institutional rot of free trade orthodoxy (globalist financial capitalism anyone?) on Marxism is a pathetic exhibition.

    • Replies: @Mike P
  265. @Erebus

    China & Russia are de-dollarizing, and encouraging others to follow with some success. The only way for the US to stop the process is to bring more resources into the dollar system. After the last 2 decades of abuse, “Brand America” isn’t of much use, and while they’re de-dollarizing Russia & China are using blocking maneuvers to thwart the USM’s attempts.

    Will see about China, but Russia certainly does. As per USM–those who need to know already know the real state. Even Pentagon’s reaction (of being “startled” as WSJ stated) on NSC idea of attacking Iran is telling.

    This will go on until a tipping point is reached where the US has to decide whether to ask for assistance to soften the collapse, or make a last desperate lunge to destroy one or the other and make a deal with the 2nd. If the US’ population maintains its ignorance of what’s at stake, they can be duped into supporting the latter, and so it depends on America’s owners to make the right decision.

    At this stage US lost the ability to destroy one or the other, it still can complicate life, for sure, but nothing more than that and, by the zugzwang dialectic, having its position continuously deteriorate with each move. And here is the problem–America’s owners demonstrated themselves to be not that smart, In fact, in some key issues they came across as utterly stupid.

  266. @Erebus

    I am happy to see somebody with brain on this site like you.
    Globalist can salivate as much they want to they will not attack Iran.
    Iran is a bridge too far.

  267. Mike P says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    The most important practical Marxist state, Soviet Union, as I stated before, viewed this Frankfurt School as nothing more than ideological masturbation

    Can’t really fault them for that 😉

    I once had the privilege of sitting in a seminar which was given by a professor who had been a member of the Frankfurt school. In the town in question, this professor had established himself as a local celebrity, so the room was packed, with students sitting on the floor and on window sills.

    The purpose of that entire course was to read a very slim volume by Horkheimer (one of the dimmest bulbs leading lights of the Frankfurt School – I forgot the title of that book). Since the session I attended occurred about halfway through the term, I was surprised that at the start the book was opened on page 8 or so.

    One window sill-dwelling student was invited to resume reading the text from that page, which he did with an air of great devotion. Before he could really get going, though, he was interrupted by the celebrity professor, who could apparently not abide listening to any other voice but his own, and who proceeded to regale the audience with trite anecdotes and celebrity name-dropping for the rest of the hour. Considering the limited progress through the book so far, I reckon that this session resembled those preceding it.

    Aah, the joys of academia – gaudeamus igitur 😉

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  268. Bill says:
    @Dacian Julien Soros

    For example, how much is on oil barrel in yuans? Can’t find that, of course.

    Um. Oil futures have been trading in yuan for almost a year now. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/china-ends-25-year-wait-as-yuan-oil-futures-set-to-start-trading

  269. Bill says:
    @Den Lille Abe

    Since beginning of civilization, a middle class has been basics of a stable society,

    No.

  270. @Mike P

    Aah, the joys of academia

    So true. Meanwhile–the first thing to put most so called “conservative” supporters of “Cultural Marxism” meme into stupor. Ayn Rand and her “objectivism” is based (in reality stolen by her) on the same fundamental Marxist (Hegelian) principle of objective reality and objective knowledge–is Ayn rand “philosophy” Marxist? 😉 I can, if push comes to shove, as can anyone with a half-brain, develop Stoicism into both Communism, Anarchy-syndicalism or Cosmism, or homo-sexualism for that matter. All these social (philosophical) studies are mostly trash, same as most (not all) their academics whose only affinity to science is creation of unending taxonomies on who espoused what BS. Ask them to solve any practical industrial or statecraft task–and they look like morons. Frankfurt School is a good cover for denying what actual Marxism nailed 100% (and thus is hated by so many) that economic interest and formation and action of capital rule the world. Lenin gave definition to Imperialism 100+years ago–it is prescient to a scary degree. Ahh, history of Russia comes up immediately–but don’t expect this subject to be studied beyond memes and urban legends.

    • Agree: Mike P
  271. I can’t take seriously any article that jumps right to the logic loop of “The US is an empire. Empires collapse; therefore, the US is collapsing.” I’ve read Glubb, but I’ve also read macro-historians like Warren Carroll. The US remains a Republic until someone is bold enough to openly abolish the checks and balances that have been eroding for decades. What comes next is anybody’s guess, but Rome’s long period of civil war and transfer from Republic to Empire was followed by Augustus’ reign of peace.

  272. @seriously

    LOL! That’s what idiot Pompeo and the rest of our lofty-minded “Christian Zionist”Evangelicals think. Hence their willingness to unleash war for Israel in order to hasten Christ’s return. Let everyone else suffer the “tribulation,” so long as their own skins are “saved.” Very noble sentiments. Saker’s hilarious remark, made with “absolute” certainty is very akin to this sectarian mentality’s fanatical fideism. What makes Saker’s remark so funny is that he is supposed to be an Orthodox Christian, and therefore a believer in the Biblical prediction of the Armageddon war. There wouldn’t be much of a “rebound” after such a war, in which one would have to assume the use of modern weaponry. Saker’s friend, Imran Husein, is convinced it will be a nuclear war and that the US will be totally destroyed. Saker has a gift for watering down his individualised “Orthodoxy” with modernism and an addition of sugary sentimentalism (= “optimism”) for his biases.

  273. @BartonFink

    but Rome’s long period of civil war and transfer from Republic to Empire was followed by Augustus’ reign of peace.

    US is not Rome nor has, adjusted for geopolitical and historic reality, a military record of Rome. Not even close. Drawing such parallels is a-historic and anti-scientific in the highest degree. Doing so gets one into faux-scientific “concepts” such as Thucydides Trap (of course, this time US being viewed as Athens) or any other hare-brain “concept” invented by ignorant US political “science” field.

    • Agree: Cyrano
  274. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    I notice that you really believe that the US “must” and “will” attack Iran.

    Something like that.

    For what reason “must” it do so?

    Two options here:
    1. I write a long post explaining that. I could do that, if you tell my why would I want to do that instead doing something else. Like……watching a good movie, for example.
    I do the work.
    2. You go through my post history on this site re “Iran” and find all about it.
    You do the work.

    Which one you’d prefer?

  275. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    To do that, the US would have to either invade or go nuclear.

    No.
    To do that the US (and allies) would have to just keep bombing where it hurts the regime in Tehran.

    A few salvoes a la April 2017 & 2018 isn’t going to amount to “smashed to pieces” even if the US sent an order of magnitude higher number of missiles.

    True.
    Two months of intense air campaign (including launching from Navy platforms) would do the trick.

    So what are you talking about?

    “Yugoslavia ’99” on steroids.

    Glad you mention Yugoslavia. They had much more to lose if they buckle…and they buckled.

    I know that you guys desperately wish that somebody, finally, put the stop to The Empire. That’s admirable. It wouldn’t be Iran, in this scenario:
    The “engagement” could help Trump to get re-elected, so he decides to go for it->Simple, stand of, targeting of the regime in Tehran. Because we do live in post-modern world where the majority of population gets its perception of reality through MSM we know what that will be->the campaign, a circus really, goes on for, say…..a month.
    The key is that Tehran simply takes it on the chin, but does NOT escalate. I believe mullahs are that smart.
    A peace conference then; another circus, of course.
    All gets back to usual.

    The result: Trump gets his second term, Iran military capability is pushed back, say, 10 years, the regime in Tehran is stronger (they use the crisyis for some housekeeping), MIC gets to replenish their stocks and had a good live fire exercise….etc. Everybody (who matters) wins; plenty of Iranians and some Americans die.

    Till next time.

    Now, true….hehe….just one small mis-step could change all that into sometime else. There are a couple of scenarios of terrible result, but, that’s what decision making is all about. That’s why we type here and some other people rule the world.
    Until they don’t.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  276. @BartonFink

    “Reign Of Peace” Never Anything But Prelude To More Horror, Catastrophe

    Barton: was it really “reign of peace”?–ho ho ho ho–it was merely sustained Roman dominance and consolidation of the Mediterranean littoral w. no substantial, organized opposition until rise of Sassanians of Persia.

    Meantime, there were the terrorist dictatorships of the emperors, like Tiberias, Caligula, Nero, Domitian, the rebellions of Jews in 66, 112, and 132, AD etc. The Germanic tribes were never subdued, Varus losing three legions at Teutoburg forest, during the reign of Augustus. “Reign of peace” was also a stagnation, at least politically, which degenerated soon enough to “Third Century Crisis” of just more civil wars among the generals, the Germanics now invading, etc.

    Civilization in West did not re-awaken until the High Middle Age of about 1050, Christendom consolidated, leading then to Renaissance–but meantime, Jews and Satanism were also re-awakening.

    The US a “republic”?–ever hrd of the 1860s war when the republic was destroyed?–ho ho ho ho. So economics outruns the political events, US continuing to advance (economically), but leading to WWI devastation, Bolshevist and world dictatorship/empire of League of nations, and then 30s depression for US, etc. Now we have Agenda-21 and -2030 GENOCIDE on the menu–isn’t it lovely? It’s hardly a “reign of peace,” by any estimation–rather it is “perpetual war for perpetual peace,” the Jews and Satanists ruling and dominating, as we see.

  277. @Moi

    And when our complacency is destroyed by hardship, we’ll rinse and repeat.

    See you across the field.

  278. Cyrano says:
    @BartonFink

    That is a strange logic indeed. To use as a proof that US is not an empire – because their actions don’t resemble the moves that some other empires before have done – is absurd. To paraphrase Tolstoy: All happy empires are alike, all failing ones – are miserable in their own way.

  279. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    It is all chimpanzee talk. In Stanley Kubrick’s 2001 movie film, at the beginning, he had two chimpanzees dance around with sticks. Perhaps a foreshadow of the real 2001 9/11 Dancing Israels – 5 of them instead of two. Then in the film, it is suddenly 2001, a huge spaceship is on the screen. We are in 1968’s vision of 2001. Sadly, in the real 2001, we got the chimps again and no big spaceship. 9/11 was done by Zion chimps doing the same things chimps do and that is destruction. Chimps throw things randomly around and destroy things with no sense of what they are doing. We truly live on a Planet of Apes like the beginning of the 2001 film. We haven’t gone past the Chimp stage yet with our Zion Chimp like Rulers. Destruction is all they think about, just like Chimps.

    PS. I read all I could about your past reasons for attacking Iran. It is all chimp talk. Destruction, Destruction and no Construction Construction. Same old, Chimp Zion love for destruction.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  280. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    It is all chimpanzee talk.

    You actually meant: people like you (that’s me) are chimps. People like me (that’s you) are so….so enlightened, so good….we are…great. If all people were great as us (that’s your types) we’d (that’s the rest of humanity) live in paradise.

    Now, the puzzling part. For such ubermensch you wrote:

    In Stanley Kubrick’s 2001 movie film, at the beginning, he had two chimpanzees dance around with sticks.

    Ahm…khm….it was actually one ape with a stick, then bunch of apes with sticks advancing against bunch of apes without sticks (dispute over waterhole) and then an ape with a stick bludgeoning an ape without stick to death (some other of his bunch join).

    I read all I could about your past reasons for attacking Iran.

    Don’t think so. Hehe…what those reasons are?

    It is all chimp talk. Destruction, Destruction and no Construction Construction.

    Actually, there will be plenty of (re)construction afterwards. Another oversight of yours, but doesn’t matter. What matters is that it makes you feel superior.
    Well, maybe you are. There are geniuses and true leaders ….somewhere…in this world. Let’s see are you one of them:
    I see you like Clarke/Kubrick/whatever, so, probably read “Childhood’s end”. So….if you were…say….Karellen…how would you fix this mess?

    • Replies: @Robjil
  281. Seraphim says:
    @Bombercommand

    I can’t wait for your lecture. I am sure it would be fascinating! Feel free to enlighten me.
    My point was that Russians are not stupid. Their politics are made by politicians and diplomats, not by Bombercommanders. Neither are the Chinese stupid. That’s why they develop land transportation in collaboration with the Russians (which was the nightmare of Mackinder, who saw that Britain’s traditional reliance on sea power would become a weakness as improved land transport opened up the “Heartland” for invasion and / or industrialisation).

    • Replies: @Bombercommand
  282. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    I don’t see much construction happening in any of the seven nations being destroyed for the Zion 9/11 false flag. The Deuteronomy 7:1-2 gig is about destruction and never about any construction. I could find nothing about any reasoning for your desire to destroy Iran. It seems to be a Deuteronomy drive to destroy and nothing more than that. The end of the Zion 9/11 Deuteronomy 7:1-2 passage is the following:
    “seven nations larger and stronger than you— when the Lord your God (Yahweh) has delivered them over to you and you have defeated them, then you must destroy them totally. Make no treaty with them, and show them no mercy.”

    There is nothing about reconstruction in this 500 BC passage. This is what the Zion chimp fanatics are drunk on – destruction and nothing more than that. In the end, if this madness goes on till the end. There will be only two surviving ziocons fighting each on a blacken earth. The “survivor” wins and is all alone on a destroyed blacken planet.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  283. peterAUS says:
    @Robjil

    Yes…yes….but, what about:

    So….if you were…say….Karellen…how would you fix this mess?

    See, I am helping you here. You get your dopamine (daily) fix by:

    I could find nothing about any reasoning for your desire to destroy Iran…

    and that…ahm….talking…. about Deuteron…whatever.

    So, any chance I, we, here could hear any (new) ideas?
    Probably not, but, who knows? Miracles do happen. Plenty of them in that book of yours.That one with Deuteron thing, passages and stuff.

    • Replies: @Robjil
  284. Robjil says:
    @peterAUS

    Miracles can happen if we had a free press. This site is a miracle. We need more miracle sites like this. There is a bit of light in this world with sites such as this at least for now.

  285. peterAUS says:

    Miracles can happen if we had a free press. This site is a miracle. We need more miracle sites like this. There is a bit of light in this world with sites such as this at least for now.

    Got it. Thank you.
    Just to be sure:
    1. We get a free press.
    2. The free press creates environment for a miracle.
    3. The miracle creates that leap from that chimp of yours to……. something else.
    4. That “something else” does not do killing and destroying.

    Interesting.

    Well, I guess, in meantime we continue as we do. Hence, the thing with Iran is still on the table for, say….next 4 years, most like it. I mean, I just don’t see that point 1 happening in that timespan.
    That would require a miracle, most likely. Which requires free press……….

    All good.

  286. anon[139] • Disclaimer says:

    “Hardly likely and you compare apples and lemons. The Roman Empire was well managed,financially above all, for centuries. Not something that can be said about Pax Americana,except for maybe the decade of the 1950’s.”

    If anything, the poster was overly generous towards the Romans. Did they have the internet, mass transit, air travel, a sophisticated police state with cameras everywhere, and WMD? And even a very corrupt US is still fabulously wealthy beyond the wildest dreams of the most deluded Roman Emperor. People who think this country is just going to collapse at any minute are deluding themselves and/or have zero understanding of history or common sense. For the most part, they are kooks. These are the same weirdos who think the world is run by a cabal of lizard people. I wouldn’t put much stock in anything they say.

  287. Anon[162] • Disclaimer says:

    “US is not Rome nor has, adjusted for geopolitical and historic reality, a military record of Rome. Not even close.”

    It’s pretty close, actually. Rome lost its fare share of wars just as they won them. Same with the US. In fact, the entire formation of the US from the many territories it conquered on the North American continent to its Civil War in the aftermath of a failed republic to its rise to Empire share many close parallels to Rome. Winston Churchill thought so. He directly stated it.

    Like the US, the Romans had a powerful enemy (Carthage). The Romans fought a civil war in the aftermath of a failed republic. As with the Romans after their defeat of Carthage, an uneasy malaise fell upon the US after its defeat of the Soviet Union. The Romans invested authority in an emperor executive. The US president isn’t far from that. The Romans have a powerful and sophisticated army, and so does the US (and don’t kid yourself, the US could crush its opposition if it ever really needed to take the gloves off). Like the Romans, the US is obsessed with moralism, bread and circuses and all the like. Rome had the Appian Way. The US has the interstate highway system. I could go on.

    “Drawing such parallels is a-historic and anti-scientific in the highest degree. ”

    It’s not. Technology may change, but people don’t and history repeats itself.

    “Doing so gets one into faux-scientific “concepts” such as Thucydides Trap (of course, this time US being viewed as Athens) or any other hare-brain “concept” invented by ignorant US political “science” field.”

    Uh, no. The US would be Sparta in this case, the declining power, and China would be Athens, the rising power. Perhaps before you denounce other people’s understanding of history, you might want to look into it yourself.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  288. anon[162] • Disclaimer says:

    “To do that, the US would have to either invade or go nuclear. The former is a rank impossibility, though the latter is possible.”

    Please. The US sank half of Iran’s navy in a day back in the 1980s. Iran hasn’t significantly advanced since them. If the US really wanted to, it could wipe the floor with Iran. That country has only a fraction of the defense budget and capabilities of Saudi Arabia and that country has only a fraction of the US capability. This is why I despise armchair generals. They know next to nothing and trade upon the many misconceptions and ignorance they find on internet chat forums. Do not confuse lack of public will with lack of capability. In a real fight, there wouldn’t be much fight.

  289. anon[162] • Disclaimer says:

    “If Trump were to lose in 2020 there would be no point in destroying him, unless by that you mean destroying whatever reputation he had left.”

    Duh. They’d want to demoralize his supporters by destroying him personally. It’s a common tactic.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  290. anon[340] • Disclaimer says:

    “He has found his home and will fight tooth and nail and with every fiber in his body to enlarge and to preserve the American dominance for his benefit.”

    I wouldn’t count on that.

    “The US decline began when Nixon took us off the gold standard.”

    Japan abandoned the gold standard back in the 1930s and rose to global power, twice. So, I wouldn’t put much stock in that gold standard nonsense as there are many downsides to it that internet kooks either don’t understand or don’t care to examine.

  291. peterAUS says:
    @anon

    They’d want to demoralize his supporters by destroying him personally.

    Let’s see what happened to those top men that the Swamp didn’t like:
    Milosevic, Hussein, Qaddafi. Assad survived purely by Russian involvement.

    Yes, Trump isn’t Third World type leader. Only “they” hate him much more. It’s……amusing….to see how people can’t see what species the “progs” are. All those who wanted The Bitch in the White House and then Trump took that away.

    I mean…they eat their own. This girl, Tulsi…I mean, a very good candidate for them. And, they are onto her because of some “anti-gay” remarks. Yes, I do know why and who are really against her, but, still. How they treat(ed) Sanders, what they say about Corbyn.

    Trump, should he lose, will go through modern version of what William Wallace had to go through. And he knows it. More importantly, people close to him know that too. All that hatred, frustration, and, yes, mental unbalance, will go onto him.

    He’d be crazy not to do ANYTHING to prevent that.
    Hehe…..funny thought: in some other places and/or times a top man would do a proper housecleaning if/when feeling that heat. Pity, can’t be done in USA.

  292. @NoseytheDuke

    I read your “link”, twice, it is incoherant. If you have something to say, use your own words, then we can have a discussion.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  293. Seraphim says:
    @Cyrano

    ‘Marxism’ and ‘Cultural Marxism’ are birds of the same feather. They are both ‘children of the revolution’. Both vituperate against capitalism, oppression, alienation, conformism, both are focused on the ’emancipation’ of the ‘new man’. Both believed that religions are ‘the opiate of the masses’ and must be destroyed.

    • Replies: @Cyrano
  294. @Seraphim

    No, your point was that Americans are stupid, and that point is one of the cranium turds The Faker peddles to the gullible to make a living. Nowhere did I express or imply that the Russians are stupid. My admiration for Soviet Deep Operations war fighting doctrine shows the respect I have for the depth and clarity of the Russian mind. However, in the present situation the Russians have a very easy game to play, and so the appearance of mind boggling genius. The Unz Review comments is no place for lectures, so it is best if you read up on Soviet Deep Operations(aka Soviet Deep Battle) yourself first. However, the internet will give you a very poor quality overview, and I will be happy to answer the many questions you will inevitably have. I did not say the Chinese are stupid, I said they have blundered, and they have. Mackinder simply ignored the historical importance of sea commerce, and therefore his World Island theory rests on a false premise. Land transportation can only augment, not replace sea transportation, and sea transportation has never been as important as now. Alfred Thayer Mahan is the most useful thinker for the present situation, and he is more relevant today than when he wrote in the late nineteenth century. The United States proved, when it destroyed the terrifyingly formidable Japanese Navy, that in the industrial age, a single nation with large industrial capacity can field a navy that can dominate the World Ocean, and that nation becomes the dominant world power. The leadership of China has made grandiose promises to its people that can only be fulfilled by treating the entire planet as nothing but a source of raw materials and a buyer of Chinese exports. This is not sustainable without becoming the dominant world power. Hence the fantasy of “sending the US 7th Fleet to the bottom of the Pacific” in the unforgettable words of UR commenter Joe Wrong.

  295. Erebus says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    Thanks for the link. Alistair Crooke is always worth the time, even though it flies far over the heads of Bombercommanders. The Magnier article he cites is also very much worth reading, but it’ll make less sense to him.
    When that 3-star Russian General walked into the US’ Baghdad embassy and announced that the “tiny” Russian contingent in Syria was to commence bombing in an hour, the M.E. changed. With that, the whole world changed, in ways that only now are starting to become apparent.

    What a bold move that was on Sept 30, 2015. Russia pulled another Crimean surprise, with a twist. This time lots of people died.

  296. Cyrano says:
    @Seraphim

    Marxism is antithesis to Capitalism. “Cultural” Marxism is prosthesis for capitalism – so it can limp happily into the future, pretending that everything is hunky-dory. “Cultural” Marxism was invented by the capitalists as a substitute for the real thing. Is that too hard to understand? “Cultural” Marxism is total propaganda BS. It seems that people are still falling for it, though.

    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
  297. @Anon

    It’s pretty close, actually. Rome lost its fare share of wars just as they won them.

    Don’t recall US winning any continental wars since 1945 and even then, as in WW I, joining in in the final stages within coalition. Prior to 1941 US military ranked #12 in the world and at Louisiana maneuvers, as was with Patton, had some of its tanks fueled on public gas stations.

    to its rise to Empire share many close parallels to Rome.

    None whatsoever–US is a “World Island” (c) insulated from continental warfare completely and surrounded by mighty Canada and superpower Mexico. Rome was a full blown continental power which was engaged in continental warfare constantly. It also fell as a continental power, which knew own share of troubles (such as actual defense of borders) which derive from such a status.

    Winston Churchill thought so. He directly stated it.

    Winston Churchill is to geopolitics and war as I am to Kabuki theater or Astrology.

    It’s not. Technology may change, but people don’t and history repeats itself.

    Yes, and I can totally envision a company of egg-heads sitting with arithmometers calculating firing solution for the intercept of hyper-sonic missile salvo while the other company conveys the results using flag and light semaphore. Obviously, I recon, we throw away here this teeny-weeny problem (among many) of human interaction with modern C4ISR and neural networks and serious ethical, psychological and security problems which arise–issues which never existed before and which change warfare in a revolutionary way. I may only suggest you buy my next book which should come out this year (most likely in the end)–it is precisely on the issues of beaten to death cliches and how they do not really work.

    Uh, no. The US would be Sparta in this case, the declining power, and China would be Athens, the rising power. Perhaps before you denounce other people’s understanding of history, you might want to look into it yourself.

    Yes, yes, especially judging by the crop of current American political leaders who, otherwise, wouldn’t be allowed to be janitors in any self-respecting department store–sure, the parallels are just jumping into one’s face. I like especially Athens and Sparta having nuclear weapons–you know, the thing which changes absolutely nothing. Other than that–it all makes sense;-)

    • Replies: @Mike P
  298. America is heading down the toilet, no question. Diversity + feminism + socialism + lack of will (to deport alien squatters, to execute criminals, to assassinate foreign enemies en masse) = national decline and possible collapse.

    But that collapse is only “possible”. It assumes existing trends continue indefinitely. Maybe they will. But if they did, it would be something new in history. America has still, despite all the diversity-driven dissensus, inefficiency, and socialist statism, immense potential – especially an America in which large numbers of racially Awakened Whites have decided to take their collective destiny into their own hands, instead of continuing the passivity that took hold with FDR’s Screw Deal, and has only intensified since the 1960s.

    People are angry. Trump is a good man but useless President, and though legislatively he has accomplished almost nothing (why didn’t he demand the Wall while GOP controlled all of Congress?), he has shown that there remains some collective survival instinct, however attenuated, in Heartland or Old Stock (or non-liberal White) Americans. Democrats took the House because of Trump’s unprofessional behavior, combined, ironically, with the reality that the economy is doing WELL (and thus too many Whites have lost their fear and anxiety – and therefore felt comfortable enough to vote for trivial reasons – personality, feminism; it was professional class White females who turned against the GOP due to their aversion to Trump and his apparent or Opposition-defined and/or at least insinuated Old School Restorationist agenda).

    Change breeds reaction. Aholes like Romney can try to revive the worthless Jack Kemp cuckservative approach, ignoring Christian social and White racial concerns while trying to coax minorities, but that agenda will no longer take wing with the GOP base. Far more of us than ever before are Awakened to the reality that the entire regime and “elite” across all areas of American life are dedicated to eliminating every last vestige of the White nation that was America. Our freedoms, jobs, wealth, rights, national identity, and historic mode of existence are all threatened. Indeed, they have been for a long time. But we were asleep. Now we are not. Big difference.

    All GOP nominees henceforth will be immigration restrictionists. And the next nominee will be a Trumpist, but without the obnoxious and counterproductive juvenility.

    America is in decline, but the GOP base is toughening up. Leftist change will therefore be hard fought (unlike in the 60s-00s). And that means that this decline will be slow. We are nowhere near collapse.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  299. @Cyrano

    Cultural” Marxism is total propaganda BS. It seems that people are still falling for it, though.

    What is also remarkable, that those people from Frankfurt School to whom “invention” of this “Cultural Marxism” meme is attributed are characterized by these very Marxists as:

    The intellectuals who founded the Frankfurt Institut deliberatively cut out a space for the development of Marxist theory, inside the “academy” and independently of all kinds of political party. The result was a process in which Marxism merged with bourgeois ideology. A parallel process took place in post-World War Two France, also involving a merging with Freudian ideas. One of the results was undoubtedly an enrichment of bourgeois ideology. In this connection Paul Mattick’s Marcuse: One Dimensional Man In Class Society (1972) is worth reading. But also, despite everything, the Frankfurt School makes an important critique of orthodox Marxism.

    https://www.marxists.org/subject/frankfurt-school/

    “Cultural Marxism”, or rather what goes under this title, has been identified and volumes were written by erudite and true scholars such as Corelli Barnett among many who stated:

    “As Adam Smith, the founder of liberal economics, put in 1776:”By pursuing his own interest (an individual) frequently promotes that of society the more effectually than when he really intends to promote it.” It was Adam Smith who formulated the doctrine of Free Trade, the keystone of liberalism, which was to exercise a long-lived and as baneful effect on British power as Wesley and Whitefield’s preaching. Adam Smith attacked the traditional “mercantilist” belief that a nation should be generally self-supporting…. According to liberal thinking, a nation was no more than so many human atoms who happened to live under the same set of laws..

    Cultural Marxism is a flesh and blood of a liberal (and neo-liberal) order which has no relation to Marxism whatsoever. This is not to mention the fact that most of those who use this meme have zero grasp of a subject. As I said, ask those if Ayn Rand’s “philosophy” or Carl Von Clausewitz are “Marxist” (since they share a truck load of commonalities in fundamentals) and observe stupor.

  300. Mike P says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Rome was a full blown continental power which was engaged in continental warfare constantly. It also fell as a continental power, which knew own share of troubles (such as actual defense of borders) which derive from such a status.

    Indeed it was – Rome had very long and exposed borders all around. It was worn down by the ever-increasing pressure of increasingly numerous and powerful foes. That it held out against this pressure as long as it did is quite remarkable; even a few short decades before the fall of West Rome in 495, it still managed (in alliance with the Visigoths) to beat back the Huns in the Battle of the Catalaunian Plains. Rome certainly did not simply collapse under the weight of its own corruption as the U.S. is about to do (mercifully, I might say – U.S. internal corruption and degeneracy is bad for them but a blessing for the rest of the world).

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  301. @Mike P

    Indeed it was – Rome had very long and exposed borders all around. It was worn down by the ever-increasing pressure of increasingly numerous and powerful foes. That it held out against this pressure as long as it did is quite remarkable;

    Exactly. United States, an enlarged version of Great Britain, never suffered (I don’t count 1812) invasion and experienced its results. Great Britain was bombed in WW II, the US was not. 911 for all its tragedy and being spectacular in the worst possible way was still insignificant in terms of actual costs. For comparison one may tale a look at the statistics of terrorism in Russia due to events in and around Chechnya (order of magnitude more died), yet, the American nation experienced a complete mental breakdown with incalculable consequences, which brought the country to where it is today–and this is not a good place.

    • Agree: Mike P
  302. @TomSchmidt

    If we can transition to Thorium/molten salt reactors soon, the higher reactor heat enables electricity production AND hydrocarbon fuel synthesis via Fischer-Tropsch conversion of coal.

    …and safe burnup of “nuclear waste” in the bargain.

  303. peterAUS says:
    @Leon Haller

    Far more of us than ever before are Awakened to the reality that the entire regime and “elite” across all areas of American life are dedicated to eliminating every last vestige of the White nation that was America. Our freedoms, jobs, wealth, rights, national identity, and historic mode of existence are all threatened. Indeed, they have been for a long time. But we were asleep. Now we are not. Big difference.

    Probably correct.
    Still, light years from making a difference in the real world.

  304. Seraphim says:
    @Cyrano

    People tend to conveniently forget the inconvenient fact that the driving force behind ‘Marxism’, if not its creator altogether (which he supported financially) was Friedrich Engels, himself a ‘respectable Manchester businessman – who rode to hounds with the Cheshire Hunt’, ‘enjoying good food, good wine, and good company’, ‘doing the things he loved: writing, maintaining contact and a voluminous correspondence with radicals everywhere’. “Marxism” itself was invented by the capitalists!
    The Frankfurt School ‘ideology’ descends directly from the ‘Communist Manifesto’, ‘The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State’…etc.

  305. The implication that Trump is backsliding on Syria exit is disinformation.

  306. anon[232] • Disclaimer says:

    “Don’t recall US winning any continental wars since 1945 and even then, as in WW I, joining in in the final stages within coalition.”

    It’s easy to get the answers you want by artificially constraining the argument. In this case, you did that by setting the date at 1945. However, that’s irrelevant as the US had already won all of its continental territory before then over a period of approximately 200 years. And Rome stopped expanding long before it collapsed, so there’s another parallel.

    “even then, as in WW I, joining in in the final stages within coalition.”

    Defeated the mighty Soviet Union just the same.

    “Prior to 1941 US military ranked #12 in the world and at Louisiana maneuvers, as was with Patton, had some of its tanks fueled on public gas stations.”

    So what? Rome was a backwater at one time, as were all great powers.

    “None whatsoever–US is a “World Island” (c) insulated from continental warfare completely and surrounded by mighty Canada and superpower Mexico. Rome was a full blown continental power which was engaged in continental warfare constantly. It also fell as a continental power, which knew own share of troubles (such as actual defense of borders) which derive from such a status.”

    An enormous number, just as a pointed out. All you did here was point out minor differences in an attempt to deflect from the fact that you didn’t know what you were talking about. Of course, there will be differences between ANY comparison, no matter how similar. The larger point is what matters. Both were empires that rose in a similar fashion, faced and defeated a peer rival, and then expanded in similar contexts using similar methods (deception, bribes, lies, opportunism, “spreading democracy” = “civilizing” the masses, and overwhelming force when necessary). Further, the differences you point out only strengthen my initial assertion that the US is far from collapse as the United States is relatively far more powerful than Rome ever was, even at its height; the gulf between Rome and its enemies was minor compared with the US and say, Iran.

    “Winston Churchill is to geopolitics and war as I am to Kabuki theater or Astrology.”

    Well, Winston Churchill fought on the winning side in two major world wars and was a student of history. So, I’d easily put him above you, regardless of your extracurricular proclivities.

    “Yes, and I can totally envision a company of egg-heads sitting with arithmometers calculating firing solution for the intercept of hyper-sonic missile salvo while the other company conveys the results using flag and light semaphore. Obviously, I recon, we throw away here this teeny-weeny problem (among many) of human interaction with modern C4ISR and neural networks and serious ethical, psychological and security problems which arise–issues which never existed before and which change warfare in a revolutionary way. I may only suggest you buy my next book which should come out this year (most likely in the end)–it is precisely on the issues of beaten to death cliches and how they do not really work.”

    Rule number one of internet kooks: they always have a book to sale.

    “Yes, yes, … I like especially Athens and Sparta having nuclear weapons–you know, the thing which changes absolutely nothing. Other than that–it all makes sense;-)”

    Nice deflection after I pointed out that you didn’t have even a basic understanding of the premise you were advancing or of its historical parallel.

  307. Wally says:
    @TomSchmidt

    But if oil was truly ‘peaking’ the price would then rise thereby making any and all oil more profitable.

    Basic supply & demand economics that you seemed to have forgotten.

    And then at a certain point even environmentally destructive wind mills & solar arrays would be competitive.

    IF ‘peak oil’ was factual.

  308. directedby says: • Website

    The main event that historians in the 23rd century will point to re this century will be that our first steps towards becoming a multi-planet species will occur in the next 80 years.

    Survey our activity as of 2099. There will be large orbiting spaceports around our moon, Mars, and Titan established. There will also be domed settlements on the moon and Mars, and multiple bases on Titan. Although this won’t involve more than 10,000 ‘settlers’ in these settlements and bases, the focus will be starting to shift outward. Earth will start to feel like a decaying plantation far from where the future is being built.

    In the next century as the surge gathers momentum, the power blocks in play here will be repeated in this system and beyond. In the 22nd century settlement of world’s in 2 other systems will begin in earnest.

    The writer’s closing comment is revealing. After the 5-stage collapse is finished, at some point (likely within 2 generations) the US nation will resurface. Notice how Russia, now religious and 75% capitalist, has surfaced and will likely survive. It had to fall to rid itself of what was killing it. Same in the West. Strange, though, Europe does seem unlikely to return.

  309. Mike P says:
    @anon

    Whatever the political similarities between Rome and the U.S. may be, their strategic situations are radically different, and accordingly so are their military histories. That much should be clear before one even gets into the question whether or not the U.S. military has ever accomplished anything of note, or would be able to do so now.

    You state that the U.S., since the collapse of the Soviet Union, is much further ahead of its rivals than Rome ever was. This perception is widely shared. Unfortunately, it was only the Soviet Union that kept the U.S. MIC at least somewhat honest. Since it is gone, the rot inside the MIC has reached such epic proportions that the U.S. has turned into a giant with feet of clay. The next real test, if and when it comes, will make that plain to anyone.

    Just think of this one recent little episode – that of the F-22 fighters left in the path of the approaching hurricane to be destroyed. Why were they left there? Either that they were not ready to fly, which would be bad; or that they were ready, but the business case for having to replace them was just too good to pass up, and the military was lending a helping hand; that would be even worse.

    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  310. @anon

    However, that’s irrelevant as the US had already won all of its continental territory before then over a period of approximately 200 years. And Rome stopped expanding long before it collapsed, so there’s another parallel.

    Basically you state that beating a six year old kid in the sand box is tantamount to knocking out Mike Tyson circa 1995. Sure. I like mental acrobatics sometimes but only sometimes.

    Rule number one of internet kooks: they always have a book to sale.

    Read up on me a bit and my background.

    Nice deflection after I pointed out that you didn’t have even a basic understanding of the premise you were advancing or of its historical parallel.

    This was written month and a half ago.

    http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2018/12/a-teaser.html

  311. @anon

    Well, Winston Churchill fought on the winning side in two major world wars and was a student of history. So, I’d easily put him above you, regardless of your extracurricular proclivities.

    Winston Churchill was at best mediocre, in reality lousy, strategist–an opinion shared by many real scholars, including in Britain. Per Churchill’s “history”–one of the most outstanding falsifiers of it, especially its military part. In the end, it was namely Sir Winston who presided over inception of disintegration of British Empire–a rather dubious distinction for a man whose talents are praised by many, who, obviously never read either summaries of ABC conferences nor read Stanley Embick’s (of George Marshal OPD) memorandum at Casablanca, nor, for that matter followed British strategic thought and operations throughout WW II. Other than that–he was a swell fellow, especially good with language and speeches. Good public speaker.

    • Replies: @Mike P
    , @Cyrano
  312. anarchyst says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Far from being “fossil fuel”, hydrocarbons are not only plentiful but are being renewed by yet-unknown processes deep within the earth.
    The term “fossil fuel” was coined in the 1950s when little was known about the processes by which oil is produced. Oil is “abiotic” in nature, as even depleted oil wells are “filling back up” from deep below the earth’s surface.
    Oil interests are drilling wells at 5,000 feet, 10,000 feet, and 15,000 feet and coming up with oil deposits way below the layers where “fossils” were known to exist.
    “Peak oil” is a discredited concept that environmentalists and others are latching on to, in order to display their hatred of oil being a renewable resource as well as to push prices up.
    Follow the money.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  313. @Mike P

    Whatever the political similarities between Rome and the U.S. may be, their strategic situations are radically different, and accordingly so are their military histories.

    Explaining realities of continental warfare to Anglo-Americans, granted with some exceptions, is usually next to impossible. Expeditionary warfare is a not a good teacher of military history and Anglo-American historiography (again, with some few exceptions) is an exhibit A of this ignorance. Moreover, not only military (real) history suffers, operational research (boy, one should read Biddle), development of strategies, in the end–technological policies and procurement become a complete mess. Here is Atkinson in intro to Patton’s memoirs (edition published before Iraq):

    The creeping arrogance, the hubris, which would cost the American Army so dearly in Vietnam. Summing up the achievements of his troops in crushing the German counterattack of December 1944, Patton with pardonable pride claims to have “moved farther and faster and engaged more divisions in less time than any other army in the history of the United States—possibly in the history of the world… No country can stand against such an Army.” These memoirs are valuable not least in showing, however unwittingly, that a disastrous presumption of invincibility took root in the ranks of officers who led the American military after World War II

    Kinda, in the ball park. The best question to ask, however, is always how many SS Panzer Divisions were deployed at Cleveland-Chicago Axis and what Luftwaffe Fleet was there in 1942-43. Then observe rather curious reactions.

    • Agree: Mike P
  314. WHAT says:
    @AWM

    And the junk sells way better than anything US has. ^_^
    Worse yet, it actually proves its efficiency.

  315. Mike P says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Winston Churchill was at best mediocre, in reality lousy, strategist–an opinion shared by many real scholars, including in Britain. Per Churchill’s “history”–one of the most outstanding falsifiers of it, especially its military part.

    To be fair to Sir Winston, he didn’t even bother falsifying the history of the Eastern Front, but he mostly just skipped it. In his “historiography,” all the fighting after Stalingrad just boils down to “relentless Russian attacks” and “dogged German resistance” or words to that effect. The real action, such trite generalities suggest, happened in the west.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  316. @anarchyst

    Far from being “fossil fuel”, hydrocarbons are not only plentiful but are being renewed by yet-unknown processes deep within the earth.
    I’ve not known a knowledgeable person to argue that there isn’t plenty of oil and coal in the earth’s crust. Some sizable fraction of it will never be produced or exploited by mankind because it will be too costly to do so in terms of the energy extracted from it.

    The term “fossil fuel” was coined in the 1950s when little was known about the processes by which oil is produced. Oil is “abiotic” in nature, as even depleted oil wells are “filling back up” from deep below the earth’s surface.
    We have this page which notes: “The hypothesis by itself is is not pseudoscience; however, cranks peddle the hypothesis as a fact, and this is pseudoscientific. In the West, the hypothesis is treated as it is, a hypothesis.”

    I wonder if you’d link to the most convincing argument you’ve seen for the hypothesis? My past reading did not convince me it is correct, but I’d certainly like it to be so.

    Oil interests are drilling wells at 5,000 feet, 10,000 feet, and 15,000 feet and coming up with oil deposits way below the layers where “fossils” were known to exist.
    Given plate tectonics, and subduction, there’s no reason to think that fossil-bearing layers of the earth’s crust weren’t conducted far underground. If you’ve been to the south rim of the Grand Canyon, you’ve stood on the Kaibab Limestone at an elevation of about 7400 feet. The North Rim is even higher. Limestone presumably is formed under sea level from marine creatures’ shells, and yet this rock has been uplifted from where it was formed.

    We also have: “At the tops of the highest peaks, like that of Mount Everest, it is possible to find 400-million-year-old fossils of sea creatures and shells that were deposited at the bottom of shallow tropical seas. Now the fossils are exposed at the roof of the world, over 25,000 feet above sea level.”

    Are you seriously arguing that the same process cannot push fossils as deep into the earth?

    “Peak oil” is a discredited concept that environmentalists and others are latching on to, in order to display their hatred of oil being a renewable resource as well as to push prices up.
    I have no hatred of oil; I think the stuff is magical and fundamental to modern life. Ignoring energy, the substances derived from petrochemicals keep me alive every year, and I would LOVE for there to be an unlimited supply of the stuff.

    Every man is entitled to his own opinions, but he is not entitled to his own facts. Take a look at the charts here:
    http://crudeoilpeak.info/what-happened-to-crude-oil-production-after-the-first-peak-in-2005

    Do you dispute the charts developed from historical production data? Hubbert’s peak, the point where production of conventional, high-energy-returned-on-energy-invested (EROEI) oil was predicted for and occurred in 2005. You can see from the charts that, for countries not producing shale oil, most have had a decline of production consistent with peak conventional oil.

    From those same charts, you’ll see that the total production of hydrocarbon liquids has increased since 2005. Ha! Peak oil is wrong… the two countries that have grown oil production the most since 2005 are the United States and Iraq.

    Iraq is an amazing oil province, rich in conventional oil. Its lifting costs are about $5 a barrel, the lowest in the world. In other words, the oil is high-EROEI. You might get back 80-100 units of energy for every unit you put into production.

    The US oil increase is mostly shale (a sedimentary rock whose oil would seem to have come from past buried algae, but leave that aside.) The EROI on shale is a fifth or less of that on conventional oil. Since most oil is used for energy purposes, to derive energy from oil we need to invest less energy in producing it than we get back. Check that link, which shows an EROI of about 4 on shale and about 20 on conventional oil. So if you produce five barrels of shale oil, you’ve spent one barrel of the energy in producing it, for a net yield of 4 barrels. If you produce 21 barrels of conventional oil, you net yield 20. Roughly; the math might be even worse, meaning you net 19 barrels from conventional investment and three barrels from shale investment, but I’ll stay optimistic.

    So, losing 21 barrels of conventional oil production yielding 20 barrels of energy means you need to produce 25 barrels of shale oil to yield 20 barrels of energy useable by society. Since the conventional production peak in 2005, production according to the chart linked earlier has risen from 75MMBD to about 82MMBD, a 10% increase. Given the EROI figures above, the net energy available to society from this additional production is probably lower than the net energy available to society in 2005; the net energy per capita on earth is definitely lower.

    I’d love to be wrong. I like flying, and driving, and warm showers. If you can show me how my calculations are off, I’d love to read it; I’d ask you to respect me as much as I did you by linking to sources.

  317. Cyrano says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Winston Churchill was at best mediocre, in reality lousy, strategist–an opinion shared by many real scholars, including in Britain.

    Let me tell you a funny story about that “brilliant” strategist – Churchill. It started with the Balkan wars, when all great western powers predicted that the Turks are going to wipe out the Balkan powers in a matter of days. It turned opposite – the Balkan powers trashed the Ottoman army in a matter of months.

    This allowed Churchill to draw wrong conclusions, and just 3 years later he came up with the disastrous plan for the attack at Gallipoli. You see, Churchill thought – if the lowly Balkan Slavs (with cameo appearance from the Greeks) can kick the Turks butt, than for the mighty British empire it should be a cakewalk.

    Wrong. This is what happens when you underestimate both the Slavs and the Turks. So Churchill brought the entire British empire to Gallipoli – British, Australian and New Zealand troops – and they all failed where few Balkan Slavs armies succeeded. So much for being a great strategist.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  318. anarchyst says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Just recently one of the world’s largest oil reserves was located in the Gulf of Mexico. There are “celestial bodies” (planets) that are composed of hydrocarbons, despite have no fossil record…It may just be that hydrocarbons are relatively plentiful in the universe.
    I stand by my assertions. Hydrocarbons ARE migrating upward towards the surface of the earth from areas which are “too deep” to contain “fossils”.
    As to “official statistics”, who is making the assertions? Follow the money.
    Hydrocarbons being constantly produced not only puts the whole concept of “peak oil” on its head, but established oil as a “renewable resource”. No one, (especially the oil companies and environmentalists) wants to see oil as a “renewable resource”.
    Regards,

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  319. @Mike P

    To be fair to Sir Winston, he didn’t even bother falsifying the history of the Eastern Front, but he mostly just skipped it. In his “historiography,” all the fighting after Stalingrad just boils down to “relentless Russian attacks” and “dogged German resistance” or words to that effect. The real action, such trite generalities suggest, happened in the west.

    Have been to Barnes and Noble this past weekend and on the shelves of Military History stumbled upon latest WW II Atlas. Hundreds of pages of beautifully illustrated and ornated maps (with photos etc.), about 3 pages, maybe 5 on Stalingrad and Kursk. The rest, well, you probably guessed already.

    • Agree: Mike P
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  320. @Cyrano

    This allowed Churchill to draw wrong conclusions

    This, for the most part, was his MO throughout his career in military related issues–drawing, or deliberately propagating, wrong conclusions. Having said that, at least let’s give him a credit where credit is due–he resigned as First Lord after Gallipoli debacle and at least went to front. Try to convince any contemporary US general to resign after their, non-ending, “brilliant” campaigns. Only after they caught screwing some bimbos or are being politically incorrect. As per faux-“academe” and neocon cabal which engineered greatly accelerated American decline in 21st century–they will not end up poor or dis-honored. Churchill was a scoundrel of a first order, but at list he was a person of scale. And yes, he was witty…sometimes.

    • Replies: @Cyrano
    , @Miro23
  321. @anarchyst

    As to “official statistics”, who is making the assertions? Follow the money.

    Do you have any reason to state that, say, these guys are faking it? I’m familiar with, e.g. ShadowStats, who shows some manipulation of “financial” data. Got a source on how global oil production data has been falsified?

    There are “celestial bodies” (planets) that are composed of hydrocarbons, despite have no fossil record
    That goes to support the abiotic theory. Nice link here:
    https://enviroliteracy.org/energy/fossil-fuels/abiotic-theory/

    I note this line: “The abiogenic origin theory of oil formation is rejected by most geologists, who argue that the composition of hydrocarbons found in commercial oil fields have a low content of 13C isotopes” and recall that Plate Tectonics was likewise rejected by “most” geologists back in the day. So it’s not proof that abiotic is wrong, though that might be the way to bet.

    Any comments on the EROI numbers, or are those also suspect because of who makes the assertions? I’d love a link debunking shale oil as low-EROI oil, if you’ve got one.

    Meanwhile, it doesn’t seem that shale drillers are earning their cost of capital, which means, eventually, that there will be no shale oil. Is the financial reporting system also suspect because of who makes these assertions?
    https://www.ft.com/content/0030fafa-3335-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498

    ” The US oil industry has swung repeatedly from boom to bust down the decades, and since 1952 has failed to earn enough to cover its cost of capital, Mr Holt of Invesco says. Embracing capital discipline may be a way for E&P companies to establish themselves at last as attractive investment prospects. But given that history, investors are understandably wary.”

  322. Cyrano says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    About Churchill wittiness – this one was written about him, not by him – but it’s good:

    For about 20 years Churchill was able to get more out of the alcohol than the alcohol got out from him.

    My personal favorite witticism about alcohol consumption comes from Ivo Andric: Alcohol allowed me to spend many memorable moments – unfortunately – I don’t remember them.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  323. @Cyrano

    My personal favorite witticism about alcohol consumption comes from Ivo Andric: Alcohol allowed me to spend many memorable moments – unfortunately – I don’t remember them.

    Good one)) Sir Winston’s comments on his namesake tank were pretty good, both to Smuts and to Stalin.

  324. Podgemex says:
    @Miro23

    That’s not Harry’s dad

  325. @Andrei Martyanov

    I recently listened to the book Für Volk und Führer, written by a member of the Waffen SS, about his experiences fighting the Soviets. Russian patriots might not care for the descriptions of Soviet brutality; the author is light on SS brutality, though he claims not to have taken part. Some harrowing tales.

    In any case, reading that book by a participant on the losing side makes clear that I was raised to see only the tip of the iceberg of the war in the USA. The 88% below the waterline is the titanic struggle between National and International Socialism. Nazi plans for the Russians were clear: they weren’t even worthy of a proper genocide but could be expected to starve and disappear after the “zone of surplus agricultural production” in the South of Russia became German territory.

    This was not part of the American vernacular while the cold war raged. The Soviets, and the Russian people, paid a high price to eliminate the Nazis. It’s time some of the rhetorical debt was paid.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  326. Seraphim says:
    @anon

    @Churchill fought on the winning side in two major world wars

    Perhaps there is more than meet the eyes. Churchill was a man at the very origin of both wars.

    “Winston Churchill in America”
    His travels and ties nurtured the special relationship between the United States and Britain
    By John H. Chettle, Smithsonian Magazine, April 1, 2001:

    “Churchill’s knowledge of the United States and its people brought his nation and ours together. His understanding of America was to a large extent the product of his visits here. From his first visit in 1895 to his last in 1961, he got to know the country and many of its statesmen, including Presidents from McKinley to Kennedy. His relationship with Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of the key elements of the Allied partnership…”

    It is worth reminding that Churchill was half-American. His mother was a member of that American wealthy elite who sent its daughters in droves to marry impoverished British aristocrats, forging that ‘special relationship’ before Churchill was born.

    Since 1895 when he went to Cuba to report on the Cuban ‘Independence War’, Churchill regularly visited America “enjoying the taste of American high society, attending parties and social events and meeting people of wealth and power… the elite of American society, including Mark Twain, Theodore Roosevelt, and President William McKinley”.

    A few facts that suggest a ‘correlation’:
    Theodor Roosevelt was Assistant Secretary of the Navy when the ‘mysterious’ sinking of USS Maine cruiser provoked the intervention of USA against Spain and witnessed the birth of the American ‘Empire’.
    Franklin Delano Roosevelt was Assistant Secretary of the Navy and Churchill First Lord of Admiralty when the avoidable sinking of the Lusitania provoked the intervention of USA in WW1 and the first opening of Europe to American plunder.
    Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President when Port Arthur provoked the intervention of USA in WW2, which led to the permanent occupation of Western Europe by America, as a springboard for a future invasion of Russia.

    Churchill was an accomplice all the way. He knew that the ‘British Empire’ will go down and consciously ‘sacrificed’ it for the greater goal of an Anglo-Saxon-American ‘Commonwealth’ (the ‘Five Eyes’) as the only force capable to ‘stand up’ to Russia and eventually to carve it.

    His ‘failure’ at Gallipoli might have another explanation than his ‘mediocre’ strategical skills.

  327. @anon

    And yet I’ll be buying Andrei’s book and not yours.

    He can be wrong — by your lights — without being a “kook.”

  328. @anon

    So, basically your claim of USA military greatness is based upon conquering stone age savages with guns and artillery? That’s proverbial 6 years old in sand box. Anything comparable to war with Pirrus, or worse yet Punic wars? You can try to persuade yourself that USA is vastly more superior to Iran than Rome was to her enemies, but track record says otherwise. USA cannot even attack Iran and cannot make Iran do what USA wants while Rome numerous times fought Persia/ parthia and mostly imposed her will on them until 3d B.C. if you aware Trajan almost conquered Iran. And capitals of Parthia were captured few times. Unlike USA rome actually almost always achieved her goals in wars , her track record of victories wars against all comers spanned 600 + years. Unlike USA, Rome always attacked strength, while USA has been trying to scare strong by attacking the weak. Basically pathetic military track record but good PR thanks to Hillywood. And forget about claiming defeat of the Soviet union. That foe was beyond you and its fall was internal affair not related to you.

  329. @TomSchmidt

    Your theory is false. If your theory would be right than oil would have to be located relatively equally around the world shell.
    But if you still believe in your theory than start to drill for oil in Germany. See how it will work.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    , @TomSchmidt
  330. @Bombercommand

    Having a discussion with a chest-thumper is rather low on my list of things to do, sorry to disappoint you but perhaps you can con another commenter into wasting time with you.

  331. Erebus says:

    “Peak oil” is a discredited concept that environmentalists and others are latching on to, in order to display their hatred of oil being a renewable resource as well as to push prices up.

    As a Saudi Oil Minister famously said, “The Stone Age didn’t end because of a lack of stones, and the Oil Age won’t end because of a lack of oil. ”

    It was the fantastic EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) that ignited the afterburners after the Age of Coal at the turn of the 20th Century. Those days is over. Numbers vary from TomSchmidt’s 80-100x to 1000x, but the extraordinary windfall profit in energy terms put those economies that could take advantage of it on an unprecedented growth curve in wealth and population levels. It wasn’t really a “curve”, in historical terms. It was a step function. Oil tripled the world’s population in 4 generations.

    Now, here we are with 7B+ people, and the EROEI has collapsed. We’re drilling miles below the ocean’s surface, fracking, tar sands, pumping sea water down wells to maintain pressures. Worldwide, EROEIs are down in the ‘teens. In the case of the tar sands, EROEIs hover in the low single digits. Fracking is not only low on an EROEI basis, it’s ~$2B short of paying for the capital it uses.

    This site has a useful discussion on the topic:
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513003856 An excerpt:

    EROI values for our most important fuels, liquid and gaseous petroleum, tend to be relatively high. World oil and gas has a mean EROI of about 20:1 (n of 36 from 4 publications) (Fig. 2) (see Lambert et al., 2012 and Dale, 2010 for references). The EROI for the production of oil and gas globally by publicly traded companies has declined from 30:1 in 1995 to about 18:1 in 2006 (Gagnon et al., 2009). The EROI for discovering oil and gas in the US has decreased from more than 1000:1 in 1919 to 5:1 in the 2010s, and for production from about 25:1 in the 1970s to approximately 10:1 in 2007 (Guilford et al., 2011). Alternatives to traditional fossil fuels such as tar sands and oil shale (Lambert et al., 2012) deliver a lower EROI, having a mean EROI of 4:1 (n of 4 from 4 publications) and 7:1 (n of 15 from 15 publication) (Fig. 2). It is difficult to establish EROI values for natural gas alone as data on natural gas are usually aggregated in oil and gas statistics (Gupta and Hall, 2011, Murphy and Hall, 2010).

    That’s a problem and it’s a problem that can’t be fixed. Whatever the origin of oil/gas is, the EROEI is what it is. We’ve burned the windfall that drove the 20th century.

    So, wherever America is on the collapse continuum, the rest of us are neither far behind nor ahead, but they led the world on the way up to peak consumption, and we shouldn’t be surprised that they’ll lead the way down. The upshot is that we’re all somewhere near the point where the world tips into zero, and then negative growth. That necessarily means some big, dangerous developments are coming our way.

    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
  332. @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Your logic is flawed, it assumes that the world shell, in terms of its composition, density and thickness, is even in its distribution all around the planet. Ever heard of tectonic plates and the constant shifting of them?

    • Replies: @Ilyana_Rozumova
  333. @Erebus

    Unless there is major breakthrough in energy department I mean thermonuclear we are basically done. In this regard civilization that is focused on consumption is not going to make it. The way for technological breakthrough lies in social economic breakthrough.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Mike P
  334. @Ilyana_Rozumova

    Which theory? I’d love to be credited with the work that theorized how gas oil and coal came to be, but I must decline for modesty.

    I’ve asked a few questions about abiotic hypothesis. I’ve given links to support the conventional view, and pointed out a couple of discrepancies by Anarchyst.

    As I say, I’d love for abiotic oil to be fact. I’m looking for convincing evidence in favor. You got any, or just attitude?

  335. @NoseytheDuke

    He he he. You know what you have learned never did any thinking.
    And so you you must have learned that at one time the Earth was perfect geometrical ball of Gas.
    Than the geometrical ball of Gas became a perfect geometrical ball of liquid.
    And then crust was created.
    And only then the crust did brake into plates.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  336. Erebus says:
    @Ilyana_Rozumova

    … And then crust was created…

    And only then did it start to make oil, in spots. Finally…

    … the crust did brake into plates.

    … and the oil producing regions moved away/towards each other. 4B years later, here we are.

    Simply put, we’re burning oil/gas at a far greater rate than the earth produces it. If the earth produces oil at “X” barrels/decade, and we burn it at “2X” barrels/decade, it’s only a matter of time until we hit the wall. The license plate at the leading edge of the bumper is making contact with the wall now. We’ll soon be into the crumple zone. When it’s finished crumpling, things go pear-shaped. It really is that simple.

  337. Erebus says:
    @Sergey Krieger

    … I mean thermonuclear…

    An 11th hour save by thermonuclear might just be possible if the Russian nuclear powered cruise missile is (a) real, and (b) its techno breakthroughs can be harnessed safely. The possibility that such a thing has gone live opens simply astounding possibilties for the transport industry.
    Of course, it has little bearing on fertilizer and plastic production, or agriculture generally, but solving transport would be a giant saviour for mankind. Not in 2020, but 2030 is not beyond hope. Imagine planes, trains and transport trucks running miniature reactors, and Russia saves a critical part of what makes the current paradigm current.

    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
  338. Mike P says:
    @Sergey Krieger

    Nuclear fission reactors work, and while it has been neglected on purpose in recent decades, it can be resurrected. While 235-U supplies are limited, 238-U and thorium are plentiful, and reactors using either have already been used in practice. We don’t need nuclear fusion or any other major breakthroughs; just the economic incentive (and freedom from political corruption) to harness these existing abundant sources of energy.

    Hydrocarbons for synthetic chemistry and jet fuel can be obtained by coal hydration or agriculture. There is nothing to worry about, really – it is all just fear-mongering.

    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
  339. @TomSchmidt

    Come on! you cannot have any convincing evidence. Nobody is going to give it to you.
    Concerning Methane it is continuously created by decaying organic rather under water.
    Concerning oil it is up to you to recreate the process according to your theory in Laboratory.
    BTW
    If you can do recreate the process in laboratory, and patent it you maybe become the richest man in the world.
    Concerning coal there were finds of innumerable imprints of leafs of prehistoric plants in it.
    So there is no discussion of origins of coal.
    Now as you know you Germans were capable to make a gasoline from coal by dry distillation in presence of catalysts.
    To me there is more or less prof that oil was created from organic matter.

  340. @TomSchmidt

    is the titanic struggle between National and International Socialism. Nazi plans for the Russians were clear: they weren’t even worthy of a proper genocide but could be expected to starve and disappear after the “zone of surplus agricultural production” in the South of Russia became German territory.

    Truth is, that if not for Stalin’s program 1931 speech The Tasks of Economic Executives on Soviet industry, that conflict could have been defined as national-socialism against “international” socialism–but it was not. The process of purge of Trotskists from the party and economic top echelons is a best testament that Soviet Union by 1931 was, despite all those popular outlets such as Comintern, increasingly turning inside and really caring very little in practice on development of international workers’ movement. Hence easy 1943 dissolution of Comintern on the request of Western Allies. By that time, namely with Axis invading USSR in 1941 the war for Soviet people became not just about ideology but about national survival and while Communist Party enjoyed unprecedented support and legitimacy, the War was called Great Patriotic War for a reason, harking back to 1812. It was a very complex interplay between Russian Marxism, nationalism and Soviet patriotism. But the most important issue here goes even further back than Marxism and whatever offsprings it produced, but back to Russian peasant commune (Mir) which formed even modern Russian outlook on life, where one gets salvation as part of a Mir. Russia is a nation which by its history (extremely violent and bloody) is predetermined to gravitate to communal outlook on life. Even today. Call it whatever you want: Russian socialism, Cosmism, Russian Marxism–it is what it is. War in Russian history is just there, constantly–it is a part of a culture. I mean, of course, real war, not Hollywood. In the end, Axis (that are forces of combined West) invasion of Soviet Union is the same old Russian story since medieval times.

  341. @Mike P

    It is all about scale of course. But wasting resources this important for personal driving seems like enormous waste. Happy motoring era seems coming to a close. Cheap energy most likely spells doom for capitalism.

  342. @Erebus

    I did not think about that. I have heard about your manufacturing background so you must know what you are talking about. Basically it is about minituarization and reduction of the costs.

  343. Seraphim says:

    The Russian outlook of life was formed in the bosom of the Orthodox Church. It is a stark irony that the only schools attended by Stalin were the Gori Church School and the Tbilisi Spiritual Seminary.

    The ‘mir’, ‘obschina’ was hailed as a purely Russian collective, both ancient and venerable, a reflection of ‘sobornost’.
    The term ‘sobornost’ – “Spiritual community of many jointly living people”, coined by the Slavophiles (Khomiakov, Kireyevski) was taken from the Slavonic translation of ‘catholic’ (universal, conciliar, in the sense of the accord of all parts). The Church is ‘sobornaia’.
    Sobor has multiple meanings: first and foremost is the “churchly “gathering” or “assemblage” or “council” reflecting the concept of the Church as an “ecclesia” (ἐκκλησία)” – the assembly of the people. In the words of Kireyevsky, “the sum total of all Christians of all ages, past and present, comprise one indivisible, eternal living assembly of the faithful, held together just as much by the unity of consciousness as through the communion of prayer”. It is also the diocesan bishop’s “cathedral church”. It was also the assembly of the country’s Estates (Zemsky Sobor).
    No less formative was autocracy, the state, the Tsars. It was argued, not without reason, that the ‘mir’ was more a monarchical creation, created and enforced for the purpose of equitable tax collection, than the result of some sort of social contract or communal instinct, reflecting a mythical intrinsically democratic ‘Slavic soul’. But even so, it was created having in mind the model of ‘sobornost’.
    So, what was then Stalin’s ‘Marxism-Leninism’ so vehemently denounced by the ‘true’ Marxists as a betrayal of ‘Marxism’ and a reversion to ‘Tsarism’ and the ‘intrinsic barbarism of Russia herself’ (as Marx himself was thinking about Russia and Russians)? Was not Lenin writing that:
    “Our task is to study the state capitalism of the Germans, to spare no effort in copying it and not shrink from adopting dictatorial methods to hasten the copying of it. Our task is to do this even more thoroughly than Peter [the Great] did when hastening the copying of Western culture by barbarian Russia… he did not hesitate to use barbarous methods in fighting against barbarism”. (Left-Wing Childishness and Petty Bourgeois Mentality).

    Why was Stalin flying the Icon of the Mother of God of Kazan over Moscow and Leningrad in 1941, in imitation of the procession of the Icon of the Mother of God of Smolensk before the battle of Borodino? Why did he reopen the Churches and restored the Patriarchate?

  344. denk says:
    @Colin Wright

    Since you don’t want to be dictated to by the US, I take it you look forward to being dictated to by China.

    How about a multi polar world with Russia/China as counter balance to the UKUS led global tyranny, where no one would dictate to the rest of world and nobody needs to be a vassal ???

    http://www.unz.com/jpetras/president-trumps-losing-strategy-embracing-brazil-and-confronting-china/#comment-2767004

  345. Miro23 says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Agree about Churchill. I got a real shock reading the excellent diaries of his CIGS (Chief of the Imperial General Staff) Field Marshall Lord Alanbrooke. They’re a day to day account of the top US and British military at work in WW2.

    After reading these , I had to do a 180º turn on Churchill, with part of a review:

    Churchill was a political showman (like his father), building up British morale wonderfully at the start of the war, but becoming a real military liability, pushing one madcap scheme after another in rambling alcoholic late night meetings. He was also very mean spirited, giving no credit whatsoever to his long suffering staff in his (self serving) histories. Typically, after the long awaited victory at El Alamein, it was a great concern that Montgomery should not receive a hero’s welcome in London that could steal his Churchill’s limelight.

    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
  346. @peterAUS

    In what way did Putin “take the Crimea”? The people of the Crimea voted by some 90% to secede from the Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.
    What did Putin take and from whom?

    • Replies: @Erebus
  347. @TomSchmidt

    The big question is when did the evil oil companies ship all the dinosaurs and forests to Titan so that it could have hydrocarbon rains?

  348. Erebus says:
    @Bill Jones

    You’re talkin’ to a tree stump.
    His goal in all his arguments appears to be seeing how long he can stay rooted while people take rational chunks out of him.

    Based on an extraordinarily deep and abiding ignorance of world events, combined with smugness, dis-ingenuity and a hint of madness, he breathes the cold, dry air of certainty. Radical oversimplification has more staying power than one might imagine possible at first, but he’s held fast through >3000 posts, and has been nothing if not consistent.

    I’ve met people like that in real life. I have concluded that they are remnants, or perhaps echoes, of what Julian Jaynes called the bicameral mind, wherein “cognitive functions are divided between one part of the brain which appears to be “speaking”, and a second part which listens and obeys”. To engage him is to test my hypothesis. I’ve come to be all but convinced of it, but YMMV.

    • Agree: Biff
  349. Seraphim says:
    @Robjil

    But if, at a deeper level, Muslims are hand in glove with the ‘deep state’? What if it was not a ‘fake Muslim’ attack, but they offered the shock troops? They do not need much to be induced into jihad mood.
    That’s how Islam spread in the first place.

    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  350. @Seraphim

    Who were the “shock troops” that you’ve suggested? Can you be more specific? Thanks.

    AFIK, there really isn’t much in the way of actual evidence of genuine muslim involvement beyond the many copies of the Koran that were liberally scattered around for the sake of appearances and incrimination. Many of the so called hijackers that were (oh so quickly) identified turned out to be alive and claiming that their identities had been stolen and used. The “magic” passport found near the WTC still requires some credible explanation too, it’s not referred to as magic for nothing.

    I’ve come to accept that there were no real planes involved anyway and thus no hijackers. I’ve yet to see any pictures of any aircraft wreckage on the ground adjacent to the the WTC prior to the buildings exploding and coming down. If part of the story is false then it’s highly likely that all of it is false.

    A couple of people who heard the voices of the “high-jackers” described their accents as being Israeli not Arabic sounding but I’m not sure any recordings of those survived the immediate “clean-ups” and destruction of evidence that occurred. There were other reports at the time of Israelis making an effort to dress and appear as arabs too.

    Perhaps there was some financing from SA but I’d say that that was due to the need for potential fall guys should the operation have failed or been exposed. Are the Saudis fake Muslims anyway?

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  351. APilgrim says:

    The author fails to mention a: hot, shooting, civil war.

    Definitely a possibility at any time, at any place in the USA.

    A high likelihood in: Chicago, LA, DC … IMHPO

  352. Seraphim says:
    @NoseytheDuke

    Remember the WTC bombing of 1993?
    Al-Qaida?
    The Muslim Brotherhood?

  353. Thanks, I thought you were referring to 9/11.

    There are a great many reports to be found online that the 1993 WTC bombing was at minimum allowed to happen by the FBI and very likely was actually a false flag operation directed by elements within the CIA and Mossad.

    Explosive Evidence of FBI Collusion

    At around the time of Rahman’s entry to the U.S., Emad Salem, a colonel in Egyptian Intelligence with expertise in bomb making was assigned to be a mole inside the ‘blind sheik’s’ circle, becoming an informant for the FBI.

    Salem was briefed to encourage and entrap Rahman and his followers in seditious activity and use a hidden microphone to record their conversations. He wormed his way into Rahman’s confidence, became his bodyguard and used his ‘wire’ very effectively; his recordings helped convict Rahman and nine co-conspirators who were assembling bombs to blow up New York landmarks.

    But what Salem’s FBI handlers didn’t know was that he also recorded his conversations with them — hundreds of hour’s worth. And when transcripts of these were made public, they proved to be nearly as explosive as the WTC blast. Because, as the New York Times reported, the transcripts revealed that whilst the FBI was aware that the terrorists were planning the WTC attack and building the bomb, their plan to thwart the plot by secretly substituting the explosives for a ‘harmless powder’ was inexplicably shelved by an FBI supervisor. It was as if the FBI could have prevented the attack and arrested all the perpetrators but deliberately chose not to.

    Copies of the recordings are easily found online.

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