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Escalation in Syria – How Far Can the Russians be Pushed?
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Events in Syria have recently clearly taken a turn for the worse and there is an increasing amount of evidence that the Russian task force in Syria is being targeted by a systematic campaign of “harassing attacks”.

First, there was the (relatively successful) drone and mortar attack on the Russian Aerospace base in Khmeimin. Then there was the shooting down of a Russian SU-25 over the city of Maasran in the Idlib province. Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians). In the first case, Russian officials did openly voice their strong suspicion that the attack was if not planned and executed by the US, then at least coordinated with the US forces in the vicinity. In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria (the not so subtle hint being here that these were US Stingers sent to the Kurds by the US). As for the latest attack on the Syrian column, what is under discussion is not who did it but rather what kind of Russian personnel was involved, Russian military or private contractors (the latter is a much more likely explanation since the Syrian column had no air-cover whatsoever). Taken separately, none of these incidents mean very much but taken together they might be indicative of a new US strategy in Syria: to punish the Russians as much as possible short of an overt US attack on Russian forces. To me this hypothesis seems plausible for the following reasons:

First, the US and Israel are still reeling in humiliation and impotent rage over their defeat in Syria: Assad is still in power, Daesh is more or less defeated, the Russians were successful not only their military operations against Daesh but also in their campaign to bring as many “good terrorists” to the negotiating table as possible. With the completion of a successful conference on Syria in Russia and the general agreement of all parties to begin working on a new constitution, there was a real danger of peace breaking out, something the AngloZionist are absolutely determined to oppose (check out this apparently hacked document which, if genuine, clearly states the US policy not to allow the Russian to get anything done).

Second, both Trump and Netanyahu have promised to bring in lots of “victories” to prove how manly and strong they are (as compared to the sissies which preceded them). Starting an overt war against Russian would definitely be a “proof of manhood”, but a much too dangerous one. Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option.

Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).

Last but not least, since the AngloZionists have long since lost the ability to actually gett anything done, their logical fall-back position is not to let anybody else succeed either. This is the main purpose of the entire US deployment in northern Syria: to create trouble for Turkey, Iran, Syria and, of course, Russia.

The bottom line is this: since the Americans have declared that they will (illegally) stay in Syria until the situation “stabilizes” they now must do everything their power to destabilize Syria. Yes, there is a kind of a perverse logic to all that…

For Russia, all this bad news could be summed up in the following manner: while Russia did defeat Daesh in Syria she is still far from having defeated the AngloZionists in the Middle-East. The good news is, however, that Russia does have options to deal with this situation.

Step one: encouraging the Turks

There is a counter-intuitive but in many ways an ideal solution for Russia to counter the US invasion of Syria: involve the Turks. How? Not by attacking the US forces directly, but by attacking the Kurdish militias the Americans are currently “hiding” behind (at least politically). Think of it, while the US (or Israel) will have no second thoughts whatsoever before striking Syrian or Iranian forces, actually striking Turkish forces would carry an immense political risk: following the US-backed coup attempt against Erdogan and, just to add insult to injury, the US backing for the creation of a “mini-Kurdistsan” both in Iraq and in Syria, US-Turkish relations are at an all-time low and it would not take much to push the Turks over the edge with potentially cataclysmic consequences for the US, EU, NATO, CENTCOM, Israel and all the AngloZionist interests in the region. Truly, there is no overstating the strategic importance of Turkey for Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle-East, and the Americans know that. From this flows a very real if little understood consequence: the Turkish armed forces in Syria basically enjoy what I would call a “political immunity” from any US attacks, that is to say that (almost) no matter what the Turks do, the US would (almost) never consider actually openly using force against them simply because the consequence of, say, a USAF strike on a Turkish army column would be too serious to contemplate.

ORDER IT NOW

In fact, I believe the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided that I see a Turkish attack on a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with embedded US Special Forces far more likely than a US attack on a Turkish army column. This might sound counter-intuitive, but let’s say the Turks did attack a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with US personnel and that US servicemen would die as the result. What would/could the US do? Retaliate in kind? No way! Not only is the notion of the US attacking a fellow NATO country member is quite unthinkable, it would most likely be followed by a Turkish demand that the US/NATO completely withdraw from Turkey’s territory and airspace. In theory, the US could ask the Israelis to do their dirty job for them, but the Israelis are not stupid (even if they are crazy) and they won’t have much interest in starting a shooting war with Turkey over what is a US-created problem in a “mini-Kurdistan”, lest any hallowed “Jewish blood” be shed for some basically worthless goyim.

No, if the Turks actually killed US servicemen there would be protests and a flurry of “consultations” and other symbolic actions, but beyond that, the US would take the losses and do nothing about it. As for Erdogan, his popularity at home would only soar even higher. What all this means in practical terms is that if there is one actor which can seriously disrupt the US operations in northern Syria, or even force the US to withdraw, it is Turkey. That kind of capability also gives Turkey a lot of bargaining power with Russia and Iran which I am sure Erdogan will carefully use to his own benefit. So far Erdogan has only threatened to deliver an “Ottoman slap” to the US and Secretary of State Tillerson is traveling to Ankara to try to avert a disaster, but the Turkish instance that the US chose either the Turkish or the Kurdish side in the conflict very severely limits the chances of any real breakthrough (the Israel lobby being 100% behind the Kurds). One should never say never, but I submit that it would take something of a miracle at this point to really salvage the US-Turkish relationship. Russia can try to capitalize on this dynamic.

The main weakness of this entire concept is, of course, that the US is still powerful enough, including inside Turkey, and it would be very dangerous for Erdogan to try to openly confront and defy Uncle Sam. So far, Erdogan has been acting boldly and in overt defiance of the US, but he also understands the risks of going too far and for him to even consider taking such risks there have to be prospects of major benefits from him. Here the Russians have two basic options: either to promise the Turks something very beneficial or to somehow further damage the current relationship between the US and Turkey. The good news here is that Russian efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey are greatly assisted by the US support for Israel, Kurds, and Gulenists.

The other obvious risk is that any anti-Kurdish operation can turn into yet another partition of Syria, this time by the Turks. However, the reality is that the Turks can’t really stay for too long in Syria, especially not if Russia and Iran oppose this. There is also the issue of international law which is much easier for the US to ignore than for the Turks.

For all these reasons using the Turks to put pressure on the US has its limitations. Still, if the Turks continue to insist that the US stop supporting the Kurds, or if they continue putting military pressure on the Kurdish militias, then the entire US concept of a US-backed “mini-Kurdistan” collapses and, with it, the entire US partition plan for Syria.

So far, the Iraqis have quickly dealt with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Iraq and the Turks are now taking the necessary steps to deal with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Syria at which point *their* problem will be solved. The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control. This means that the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians should not place too much hope on the Turks turning against the US unless, of course, the correct circumstances are created. Only the future will tell whether the Russians and the Iranians will be able to help to create such circumstances.

Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses

Right now nobody knows what kind of air-defense systems the Russians have been delivering to the Syrians over the past couple of years, but that is clearly the way to go for the Russians: delivering as many modern and mobile air defense systems to the Syrians. While this would be expensive, the best solution here would be to deliver as many Pantsir-S1 mobile Gun/SAM systems and 9K333 Verba MANPADs as possible to the Syrians and the Iranians. The combination of these two systems would immensely complicate any kind of air operations for the Americans and Israelis, especially since there would be no practical way of reliably predicting the location from which they could operate. And since both the US and Israel are operating in the Syrian skies in total violation of international law while the Syrian armed forces would be protecting their own sovereign airspace, such a delivery of air-defense systems by Russia to Syria would be impeccably legal. Best of all, it would be absolutely impossible for the AngloZionist to know who actually shot at them since these weapon systems are mobile and easy to conceal. Just like in Korea, Vietnam or Lebanon, Russian crews could even be sent to operate the Syrian air defense systems and there would be no way for anybody to prove that “the Russians did it” when US and Israeli aircraft would start falling out of the skies. The Russians would enjoy what the CIA calls “plausible deniability”. The Americans and Israelis would, of course, turn against the weaker party, the Syrians, but that other than feeling good that would not really make a difference on the ground as the Syrians skies would not become safer for US or Israelis air forces.

The other option for the Russians would be to offer upgrades (software and missile) to the existing Syrian air defense systems, especially their road-mobile 2K12 Kub and 9K37 Buk systems. Such upgrades, especially if combined with enough deployed Pantsirs and Verbas would be a nightmare for both the Americans and the Israelis. The Turks would not care much since they are already basically flying with the full approval of the Russians anyway, and neither would the Iranians who, as far as I know, have no air operations in Syria.

One objection to this plan would be that two can play this game and that there is nothing preventing the US from sending even more advanced MANPADs to their “good terrorist” allies, but that argument entirely misses the point: if both sides do the same thing, the side which is most dependent on air operations (the US) stands to lose much more than the side which has the advantage on the ground (the Russians). Furthermore, by sending MANPADs to Syria, the US is alienating a putative ally, Turkey, whereas if Russia sends MANPADs and other SAMs to Syria the only one who will be complaining will be the Israelis. When that happens, the Russians will have a simple and truthful reply: we did not start this game, your US allies did, you can go and thank them for this mess.

The main problem in Syria is the fact that the US and the Israelis are currently operating in the Syrian skies with total impunity. If this changes, this will be a slow and gradual process. First, there would be a few isolated losses (like the Israeli F-16 recently), then we would see that the location of US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shift from urban centers and central command posts to smaller, more isolated targets (such as vehicle columns). This would indicate an awareness that the most lucrative targets are already too well defended. Eventually, the number of air sorties would be gradually replaced by cruise and ballistic missiles strikes. Underlying it all would be a shift from offensive air operations to force protection which, in turn, would give the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah a much easier environment to operate in. But the necessary first step for any of that to happen would be to dramatically increase the capability of Syrian air defenses.

Hezbollah has, for decades, very successfully operated under total Israeli air supremacy and their experience of this kind of operations would be invaluable to the Syrians until they sufficiently built up their air defense capabilities.

Conclusion: is counter-escalation really the only option?

Frankly, I am starting to believe that the Empire has decided to attempt a partial “reconquista” of Syria, even Macron is making some noises about striking the Syrians to “punish” them for their use of (non-existing) chemical weapons. At the very least, the US wants to make the Russians pay as high a price as possible for their role in Syria. Further US goals in Syria include:

  • The imposition of a de-facto partition of Syria by taking under control the Syrian territory east of the Euphrates river (we could call that “plan C version 3.0”)
  • The theft of the gas fields located in northeastern Syria
  • The creation of a US-controlled staging area from which Kurdish, good terrorist and bad terrorist operations can be planned and executed
  • The sabotaging of any Russian-backed peace negotiations
  • The support for Israeli operations against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria
  • Engaging in regular attacks against Syrian forces attempting to liberate their country from foreign invaders
  • Presenting the invasion and occupation of Syria as one of the “victories” promised by Trump to the MIC and the Israel lobby

So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed. The shooting down of the Israeli F-16 is a good first step, but much more needs to be done to dramatically increase the costs the Empire will have to pay for is policies towards Syria. The increase in the number of Russian commentators and analysts demanding a stronger reaction to the current provocations might be a sign that something is in the making.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, Russia, Syria, Turkey 
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  1. The proliferation of SAMs and MANPADs can only lead to eventual blowback and in a big way. I’d hate to hear of more innocent civilians killed on commercial flights as with MH17 but it doesn’t take the ownership of a deluxe model crystal ball to say that at some point it will happen, either in the US or EU. Should El Al planes be hit it would be very damaging for Israel’s reputation and economy and likewise the US. I’m of the opinion that Russia would face less of a threat but would still run risks. This is all for what?

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    • Replies: @yurivku

    I’d hate to hear of more innocent civilians killed on commercial flights as with MH17
     
    Nobody wants it, but ZUS already did enough for making that possible almost anywhere.
    It's time to fight back. It's the only language ZUS understands.
    , @G. B.
    EU's new military pact poses no threat to NATO: Mogherini

    ''The European Union has dismissed a call by the United States "to include in written EU documents" that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) role in protecting Europe would not be threatened by the EU's newly-established massive military pact.''

    http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/16/552574/Mogherini-NATO-Sofia-PESCO-military-pact
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
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  2. one way or another – first via ISIS and other Sunni terrorists, now via the Kurds – the Jews are determined to use Syria to spark a final White-on-White (‘Murka vs. Russia) World Massacre. And unless Putin puts his foot down fairly soon, (((they))) are likely to get away with it.

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    • Agree: Druid
    • Replies: @Paulv
    Such garbage. Israel is the US's Japan of the middle east. Its not all about the Jews.
    , @hunor
    Bingo that is the endgame, eliminate the capable goyim , and declare NWO.
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  3. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Trump will slaughter the Russians if they try anything.

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    • LOL: bluedog
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    It may be already happening. Looks like Russia got whooped much worse than they admitted - http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mercenaries-testing-us-lost-300-troops-reports-2018-2?amp%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_source=quora
    , @El Dato
    Shopped pics or GTFO!

    Yeah, I know. The US Wehrmacht already killed over 9000 Russkies in one sortie etc. etc.

    , @Paranam Kid
    Of course he will, when he will be so depressed that the only good option open to him will be getting roasted himself. But it is indeed more comforting for certain people to believe in fairy tales of the like you spin here.
    , @pyrrhus
    Assuming that you are n9t being sarcastic, with what?
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  4. Mr T says:

    To the Saker,

    Do you think the US may eventually end up in a Dien Bien Phu situation in Syria ?
    An isolated outpost dependent on air control, gradually being strangled by ground forces ?

    Taher

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Do you think the US may eventually end up in a Dien Bien Phu situation in Syria ?
    An isolated outpost dependent on air control, gradually being strangled by ground forces ?
     
    I am not Saker but you nailed it--this is precisely where it is all going.
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  5. Ma Laoshi says:

    All nicely argued, but are these even new developments. The impunity for US/IL air assets over Syria has been a huge problem for Russia’s stated goals there for two years already, and giving Syrians the tools to defend their own airspace has always been an obvious remedy. That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn’t *want* to do this–that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying “When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word.”

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    • Agree: Spisarevski
    • Replies: @Randal

    That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn’t *want* to do this–that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying “When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word.”
     
    Well, yes and no. It's hardly as if providing the Syrians with the kind of air defences that will stand up to Israeli and US attacks is easy or cost-free. Quite the contrary - the response of both Israel and the US to attacks on their aircraft will undoubtedly be attacks on the air defences concerned, and likely very effective ones. There will be considerable costs of replacing destroyed equipment and retraining operators, let alone dealing with the political and diplomatic consequences of Russian operators (or "instructors") getting killed. Russia will likely have to stand nose to nose with the superpower again, to deter outright open war against Syria. With the first shot down US plane much of the anti-war American political and public opinion will melt away, because Americans in general are infantile about things like that and can never accept that other people can hit them back even when the US government is pummeling them constantly. That's "unprovoked aggression" for Americans. And who knows how Trump would react, since (as his missile murder of Syrians last year in response to some nasty photos demonstrated) he is pretty infantile himself..

    It's not just a simple matter of giving them some stuff and declaring Syrian air space closed to Israelis and US aircraft.

    And motivation does come into it as well - Russia is not eager to fall out irrevocably with the Israelis. For that matter I think the Israelis would rather not fall out with the Russians openly. It's the logic of the situation that is driving them in that direction regardless - the Israeli determination to overthrow Assad in order to pursue their obsessive aggression against Hezbollah and Iran, coming into collision with Russian determination to prevent another US-backed regime change of one of their remaining allies.

    No need for rather fanciful theories about secret Russian and US collusion to partition Syria - though it might well be that both come to believe that is necessary, being the best they each can get if neither ultimately can defeat the other.
    , @polskijoe
    You may be right (who knows).

    Syria used to be controlled by France/UK wasnt it? (dont know much about it).
    Both France and UK are still mini imperialist minded. But generally the US is the king of that.

    Perhaps Syria will split into three?
    a)Israel-US
    b)Turkey
    c)Syria-Russia-Iran?

    that would effectlively be a win for Greater Israel. If Putin is agreeing with this that would be sad.
    the Brits/US want Iran too. Israel wants to destroy Iran.
    throw in Lebanon, Jordan, and plans move forward.

    Atm a heavily conventional strike on Israel would destroy it.
    But give them much more land, and they move to become a power.
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  6. yurivku says:

    Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).

    No, they have succeeded a little. Many of us are blaming Putin for he did not react on these hostile actions from ZUS. I in particular, time where people believed in Clever Plan of Putin (Хитрый план Путина = ХПП) is over. Now it looks as a weakness and lack of determination.

    But this will not get people to vote for US-oriented candidates, contrary it will upper the support of anti US forces.

    Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses

    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I’m afraid he won’t. The story of Putin’s counteraction to ZUS hostility it’s a story of retreats (sanctions, diplomacy, … now Syria) with only couple of exclusions, the main is Crimea and the second is the very beginning of Syrian battle.

    So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed.

    Yes, and it should be done immediately.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I’m afraid he won’t.
     
    It is a bit more complicated, OK--it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that "localization" of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:

    1. Syrian AD has been fully (I underscore--fully, that means not just voice commands, but all data-links, CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, EW "inclusion", C3, the works etc.).

    2. The "Sale" of S-400 to Syria can easily be arranged by declaring of "contractual transfer" of S-400 in Masyaf.

    3. AD capabilities of Russia and Syria in the last 3-4 months grew significantly, to put it mildly. The capability is already there, as I wrote in the other thread--some photos from Syria confirm that there is a presence of Buk-M2 in Syria. This is enormously capable system. How many? Well, sure as hell not one.

    The build up is three and it is clear and confirmed. I doubt that this indicates any kind of "retreats", "passivity" etc. Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing--both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded. Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no--is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.
    , @Felix Keverich
    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime's main (only) concern is self-preservation - I think most of us can see this now.
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  7. yurivku says:
    @NoseytheDuke
    The proliferation of SAMs and MANPADs can only lead to eventual blowback and in a big way. I'd hate to hear of more innocent civilians killed on commercial flights as with MH17 but it doesn't take the ownership of a deluxe model crystal ball to say that at some point it will happen, either in the US or EU. Should El Al planes be hit it would be very damaging for Israel's reputation and economy and likewise the US. I'm of the opinion that Russia would face less of a threat but would still run risks. This is all for what?

    I’d hate to hear of more innocent civilians killed on commercial flights as with MH17

    Nobody wants it, but ZUS already did enough for making that possible almost anywhere.
    It’s time to fight back. It’s the only language ZUS understands.

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  8. Randal says:

    Frankly, I am starting to believe that the Empire has decided to attempt a partial “reconquista” of Syria, even Macron is making some noises about striking the Syrians to “punish” them for their use of (non-existing) chemical weapons.

    This is my own impression as well, and Saker’s suggested response of beefing up and unleashing Syrian air defences to deny Israel and the US their current free (albeit illegal) access to the use of air power over Syria seems the most sensible one. It’s not without costs and risks, but the alternative is letting the US and its proxies continue to get away with murder (both literally and figuratively).

    Whether Putin has the bottle for it remains to be seen.

    There is a counter-intuitive but in many ways an ideal solution for Russia to counter the US invasion of Syria: involve the Turks.
    …..
    The other obvious risk is that any anti-Kurdish operation can turn into yet another partition of Syria, this time by the Turks.

    Yes, the more Turkish involvement in Syrian territory is encouraged by the Russians and Syrian government, the harder it will be to get them out afterwards.

    At the moment it appears the Turkish/US relationship hangs by the thread of an informal separation of the Kurds in Afrin and Turkish operations against them from the Kurds further east and US backing for them. The US is desperately hoping the Turks will get bogged down in Afrin and that the fighting won’t spread to the eastern Kurdish controlled areas.

    The longer the fighting goes on and the more Turkish soldiers die in fighting in Afrin thanks to support from Kurds further east, the shakier that is likely to get. Alternatively, if Turkish plans for controlling and ethnically rebalancing Afrin become real, it might be the Kurds in the east who have to escalate. Either way works.

    The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control.

    Sadly this is far from the truth, it appears. Erdogan seems to have a real animus against Assad, based presumably on his muslim brotherhood sympathies versus Assad’s secularist approach, and if he can do the Syrian government harm he will do so.

    However, this does appear to be very much secondary in Turkish eyes (and therefore Erdogan’s eyes) to the existential threat posed by Kurdish nationalism. Erdogan and Turkey can and will swallow their dislike of Assad’s secularism if they have to. They cannot and will not swallow Kurdish nationalism.

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  9. You know you’re making bad decisions when John Bolton praises them. From yesterday:

    “I’m willing to bet that U.S. forces had no clue there were ‘Russian mercenaries’ there, but nonetheless, if these press reports are true, it looks like Americans have killed Russians,” he pointed out, speculating that the incident was among the subjects discussed by President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in their phone call over the weekend.

    “I have to say, the Russians—at least publicly so far—seem to have behaved responsibly, Bolton added. “They did admit they had ‘mercenaries,’ quote-unquote, there. They didn’t overreact to it. That’s about the best sign from Russia, frankly, I’ve seen in a long time.

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  10. In fact, I believe the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided that I see a Turkish attack on a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with embedded US Special Forces far more likely than a US attack on a Turkish army column.

    They may be bad but NO, Turkey is not leaving NATO nor realistically moves towards Russia. Turks will continue to play with US but they inevitably will return “home” controlled for now by US. Erdogan plays his game and Russians are keenly aware of that.

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    • Replies: @The Scalpel
    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?
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  11. @Mr T
    To the Saker,

    Do you think the US may eventually end up in a Dien Bien Phu situation in Syria ?
    An isolated outpost dependent on air control, gradually being strangled by ground forces ?

    Taher

    Do you think the US may eventually end up in a Dien Bien Phu situation in Syria ?
    An isolated outpost dependent on air control, gradually being strangled by ground forces ?

    I am not Saker but you nailed it–this is precisely where it is all going.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    The French basically said; well that sucks. And packed it up and left.

    The question is, would we do the same? Reagan pulled the Marines out of Lebanon because he realized the craziness of the situation, but I'm not sure the people in charge of US policy know what the words "exit strategy" or "de-escalation" mean.

    It's like someone walked into an insane asylum, left a pile of loaded weapons on the ground and proceeded to turn off the lights.

    Peace.
    , @Johnj
    The US is not France so a Dien Bien Phu is not going to happen. The US can bomb Asad and Syria anytime it wants to and Russia would not have a good response. So Russia is going to have to yield to US plans for Syria. It will be a forced partnership with Russia.

    No amount of air defense can prevent a massive offense from the air. There is no historical evidence for air defense stopping a massive offense. Saker is perhaps delusional, I don’t know.
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  12. Randal says:
    @Ma Laoshi
    All nicely argued, but are these even new developments. The impunity for US/IL air assets over Syria has been a huge problem for Russia's stated goals there for two years already, and giving Syrians the tools to defend their own airspace has always been an obvious remedy. That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn't *want* to do this--that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying "When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word."

    That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn’t *want* to do this–that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying “When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word.”

    Well, yes and no. It’s hardly as if providing the Syrians with the kind of air defences that will stand up to Israeli and US attacks is easy or cost-free. Quite the contrary – the response of both Israel and the US to attacks on their aircraft will undoubtedly be attacks on the air defences concerned, and likely very effective ones. There will be considerable costs of replacing destroyed equipment and retraining operators, let alone dealing with the political and diplomatic consequences of Russian operators (or “instructors”) getting killed. Russia will likely have to stand nose to nose with the superpower again, to deter outright open war against Syria. With the first shot down US plane much of the anti-war American political and public opinion will melt away, because Americans in general are infantile about things like that and can never accept that other people can hit them back even when the US government is pummeling them constantly. That’s “unprovoked aggression” for Americans. And who knows how Trump would react, since (as his missile murder of Syrians last year in response to some nasty photos demonstrated) he is pretty infantile himself..

    It’s not just a simple matter of giving them some stuff and declaring Syrian air space closed to Israelis and US aircraft.

    And motivation does come into it as well – Russia is not eager to fall out irrevocably with the Israelis. For that matter I think the Israelis would rather not fall out with the Russians openly. It’s the logic of the situation that is driving them in that direction regardless – the Israeli determination to overthrow Assad in order to pursue their obsessive aggression against Hezbollah and Iran, coming into collision with Russian determination to prevent another US-backed regime change of one of their remaining allies.

    No need for rather fanciful theories about secret Russian and US collusion to partition Syria – though it might well be that both come to believe that is necessary, being the best they each can get if neither ultimately can defeat the other.

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    • Agree: Beefcake the Mighty
    • Replies: @Ma Laoshi
    Your point about the unpredictable costs of defending Syrian airspace is well taken. But "anti-war opinion" in the US -- you're kidding, right? Part of Trump's genius, such as it is, is his realization that the anti-war sentiment of his base always was wafer-thin. Mostly, his deplorables didn't like/trust somebody like Obama prosecuting what they felt were rightfully Republican wars--just like Democrats were immediately OK with Bush's wars once Obama took over. Trump voters *like* the drumbeat against Iran because of religion, and against Venezuela because of "socialism". Meanwhile, the Democrats never really moved on after Hillary and clamor for much, much more, while that Sanders fella--well at his age, who can really make out what he's mumbling these days.

    Who can know the future, but there is another side to this: when The Donald and Bibi get a nice pile of dead bodies delivered to their doorstep, for the first time they'd be under pressure to explain to their voters what the hell they're doing and supporting again in Syria. Of those two, only Trump could realistically carry out massive strikes on Syria militarily, but I doubt he could do it politically if the other side is willing to hit back hard.

    I disagree with your characterization of Trump's missile strike. Yes I've read Hersh, but even if I trust him I certainly don't trust his sources. Trump may or may not be an overage infant, but this was a US Government decision by ruthless, experienced generals, to do something kinetic and probe the adversary's reaction. The absence of a sufficiently severe reaction contributed to the present mess.

    Yes the Russian-Israeli relationship is delicate, but Israelis can play Middle Eastern theater with the best of them, and it shouldn't be taken at face value. They like to bomb Syria when they can get away with it; when you stop them they'll yell "Holocaust, holocaust" as they always do, and then they'll move on. Longer term, Israelis have to learn that their security is linked to the security of other peoples in the region, and a comprehensive agreement should be negotiated. Jews hate this idea of mutuality for racial reasons, so they must be forced to accept it.
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  13. @yurivku

    Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).

     

    No, they have succeeded a little. Many of us are blaming Putin for he did not react on these hostile actions from ZUS. I in particular, time where people believed in Clever Plan of Putin (Хитрый план Путина = ХПП) is over. Now it looks as a weakness and lack of determination.

    But this will not get people to vote for US-oriented candidates, contrary it will upper the support of anti US forces.

    Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses
     
    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I'm afraid he won't. The story of Putin's counteraction to ZUS hostility it's a story of retreats (sanctions, diplomacy, ... now Syria) with only couple of exclusions, the main is Crimea and the second is the very beginning of Syrian battle.

    So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed.
     
    Yes, and it should be done immediately.

    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I’m afraid he won’t.

    It is a bit more complicated, OK–it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that “localization” of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:

    1. Syrian AD has been fully (I underscore–fully, that means not just voice commands, but all data-links, CEC–Cooperative Engagement Capability, EW “inclusion”, C3, the works etc.).

    2. The “Sale” of S-400 to Syria can easily be arranged by declaring of “contractual transfer” of S-400 in Masyaf.

    3. AD capabilities of Russia and Syria in the last 3-4 months grew significantly, to put it mildly. The capability is already there, as I wrote in the other thread–some photos from Syria confirm that there is a presence of Buk-M2 in Syria. This is enormously capable system. How many? Well, sure as hell not one.

    The build up is three and it is clear and confirmed. I doubt that this indicates any kind of “retreats”, “passivity” etc. Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing–both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded. Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no–is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.

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    • Replies: @yurivku
    Well again clever plan of Putin ... sorry Andrei, I have alot to say, but tonight I'm on phone, so I, probably, will, later. Now I just say - disagree. And not only me. Needless to say I'll vote for Grudinin.
    , @yurivku

    It is a bit more complicated, OK–it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that “localization” of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:
     
    Well, it is complicated. And I said - "should at least supply ". There is also an option to hit ourself with S-400 ... those aircrafts which are present in Syria illegally and which are bombing our ally.

    Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing–both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded.
     
    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
    Otherwise not a single Israelis jet was grounded, but many of those.
    What about S-200, I was taught of their structure when was studying in Baumanka (Moscow High Technical School named after Bauman) and in 1982-1984 I was called to Soviet Army and serving as an officer in S-200 selfchecking division. It was top secret this time, but now it's obsolet. It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effecive reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I beleive it's not very effective.
    So why not to supply S-300 and new BUK M3 and Pantsir ?
    It's lack of political will, I think.

    Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no–is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.
     
    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late. ZUS getting more and more insane and can limit our options to just one - full scale war with using ALL types of weapons.
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  14. Kirt says:

    Why don’t the Russians just pull out of Syria? This would have to wait until after the Russian elections, of course, and could be combined with upping the supply of weapons to Assad’s forces. Such a move would be bad for the Syrians, but nothing in the near future is going to be good for the Syrians since Israel and the US are determined to continue tormenting that poor country and not allowing it any respite from war in which to rebuild.

    But it would be good for the Russians and for the Iranians if they followed suit. The US, Israel and Turkey would be left with endless guerrilla wars against local factions as well as clashes among themselves – particularly involving Turkey. Russia would only lose a few overextended bases and could concentrate on its near abroad, which is a much more important Russian interest. I feel sorry for the Middle Eastern victims of US and Israeli aggression but at this time, I think Russia should concentrate on building itself up rather than getting stuck in another quagmire.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Randal

    Why don’t the Russians just pull out of Syria?
     
    Because the very good reasons for getting involved there in the first place still apply.

    First, fighting jihadists in Syria is better than fighting them in the Caucasus with backing from victorious jihadis in Syria (as the Syrians suffered from having to fight victorious jihadist backing from Libya after the US and its European proxies "regime changed" that country into a jihadist-riddled chaotic realm of war).

    Second, because once the US has regime changed one country it doesn't sit back and rest on its laurels - it transfers its efforts to the next one. In the end, aggression based like the US's on a universalist ideology of world transformation cannot be appeased or ignored - it must be confronted or it will push further until it triumphs everywhere. It cannot do otherwise.
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  15. Randal says:
    @Kirt
    Why don't the Russians just pull out of Syria? This would have to wait until after the Russian elections, of course, and could be combined with upping the supply of weapons to Assad's forces. Such a move would be bad for the Syrians, but nothing in the near future is going to be good for the Syrians since Israel and the US are determined to continue tormenting that poor country and not allowing it any respite from war in which to rebuild.

    But it would be good for the Russians and for the Iranians if they followed suit. The US, Israel and Turkey would be left with endless guerrilla wars against local factions as well as clashes among themselves - particularly involving Turkey. Russia would only lose a few overextended bases and could concentrate on its near abroad, which is a much more important Russian interest. I feel sorry for the Middle Eastern victims of US and Israeli aggression but at this time, I think Russia should concentrate on building itself up rather than getting stuck in another quagmire.

    Why don’t the Russians just pull out of Syria?

    Because the very good reasons for getting involved there in the first place still apply.

    First, fighting jihadists in Syria is better than fighting them in the Caucasus with backing from victorious jihadis in Syria (as the Syrians suffered from having to fight victorious jihadist backing from Libya after the US and its European proxies “regime changed” that country into a jihadist-riddled chaotic realm of war).

    Second, because once the US has regime changed one country it doesn’t sit back and rest on its laurels – it transfers its efforts to the next one. In the end, aggression based like the US’s on a universalist ideology of world transformation cannot be appeased or ignored – it must be confronted or it will push further until it triumphs everywhere. It cannot do otherwise.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kirt
    Where exactly has the US triumphed recently? It's one thing to change a regime, quite another to actually control a country and get something profitable out of it. And I don't buy the argument that it is better to fight jihadists far away than close to home either with respect to the US or Russia. Better to fight on your own turf than on your enemy's where you have to deal with long and vulnerable supply lines to distant and vulnerable bases against local forces which know the lay of the land and have the extra motivation of defending their own homes.
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  16. yurivku says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I’m afraid he won’t.
     
    It is a bit more complicated, OK--it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that "localization" of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:

    1. Syrian AD has been fully (I underscore--fully, that means not just voice commands, but all data-links, CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, EW "inclusion", C3, the works etc.).

    2. The "Sale" of S-400 to Syria can easily be arranged by declaring of "contractual transfer" of S-400 in Masyaf.

    3. AD capabilities of Russia and Syria in the last 3-4 months grew significantly, to put it mildly. The capability is already there, as I wrote in the other thread--some photos from Syria confirm that there is a presence of Buk-M2 in Syria. This is enormously capable system. How many? Well, sure as hell not one.

    The build up is three and it is clear and confirmed. I doubt that this indicates any kind of "retreats", "passivity" etc. Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing--both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded. Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no--is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.

    Well again clever plan of Putin … sorry Andrei, I have alot to say, but tonight I’m on phone, so I, probably, will, later. Now I just say – disagree. And not only me. Needless to say I’ll vote for Grudinin.

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    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    That's exactly what the West would like you to do.

    Here is a hint why: Soviet Union was feared, Soviet Union was respected, Soviet Union always retaliated in kind, no one was messing with Soviet Union.
    Where is Soviet Union now?

    Please, think about it.
    , @Andrei Martyanov
    Here is a superb essay by Patrick Bahzad at Colonel Lang's Blog. I think you may find it interesting. BTW, operational summary done on the superb level by Patrick.

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/02/seven-years-into-the-civil-war-what-is-left-of-the-syrian-arab-army-.html
    , @TT
    As non Russian, in fact almost all people i know, esp from China, most admired your Pres Putin as a rare charismatic stateman in this chaotic world.

    Russia wise policies like gold reserve, healthy economy, revived superb military power, great resilience under USNato unprecedented aggression and sanction, increasing global influence, and shrewd grand plans with China(like Petrol Yuan, Obor, North sealanes...) to counter US hedgmon are sufficient to prove Putin & his team are performing excellently.

    Most countries will love to exchange their leaders with Mr. Putin upon Russian drop him, esp US & EU are filled with crooks now. If its aren't broken, why fix it? Other politician may not have Putin's shrewd cold mind to handle hot crazy USNato provocation, able to put up a excellent technocrats team and balance all powerful interest groups like now. There is no better dream for the West is a Putin downfall, replace with another pro-West Yeltsin or some clumsy wannabe to destabilize Russia.

    Certainly Russia has already well equipped Syria with comprehensive air defense system to protect its own troops & base, as in FB & Andrei comments.

    But Putin will not risk a war with US for the sake of Syria no matter how. Unless US attacked Russian openly to force Putin to retaliate as face saving, then its big trouble for the world. Similarly for US & Israel, they are testing Russian only, not ready for confrontation. Syria is just a pawn to big powers, no one give a damn how many million Syrians get slaughter.

    However, should US will to touch Russian motherland or even snatch an island, then you can be assured to see a very different Putin and Russian response.

    Reality is always cruel.
    , @FB

    '...Needless to say I’ll vote for Grudinin...'
     
    this explains a lot...thanks...
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  17. Kirt says:
    @Randal

    Why don’t the Russians just pull out of Syria?
     
    Because the very good reasons for getting involved there in the first place still apply.

    First, fighting jihadists in Syria is better than fighting them in the Caucasus with backing from victorious jihadis in Syria (as the Syrians suffered from having to fight victorious jihadist backing from Libya after the US and its European proxies "regime changed" that country into a jihadist-riddled chaotic realm of war).

    Second, because once the US has regime changed one country it doesn't sit back and rest on its laurels - it transfers its efforts to the next one. In the end, aggression based like the US's on a universalist ideology of world transformation cannot be appeased or ignored - it must be confronted or it will push further until it triumphs everywhere. It cannot do otherwise.

    Where exactly has the US triumphed recently? It’s one thing to change a regime, quite another to actually control a country and get something profitable out of it. And I don’t buy the argument that it is better to fight jihadists far away than close to home either with respect to the US or Russia. Better to fight on your own turf than on your enemy’s where you have to deal with long and vulnerable supply lines to distant and vulnerable bases against local forces which know the lay of the land and have the extra motivation of defending their own homes.

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    • Replies: @Randal
    The US doesn't need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals - reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying - Libya.

    As for whether it's better to fight them over there than to fight them over here, clearly it depends upon the circumstances. For the US that case when it is made by neocon and militarist warmongers is usually a lie because the US is uniquely (albeit not completely) protected in its position of continental security, and attacks upon the US and its forces almost invariably stem entirely from prior US aggressive interventionism. Russia does not have that luxury, and furthermore Russia's jihadist and other enemies are backed, pushed and enabled by the resources of the world's only superpower, with military and "black" subversion budgets bigger than most countries' entire state budgets.

    In the case of Syria, clearly Russia has the advantage of operating in cooperation with an existing legitimate government which evidently retains broad popular support. Given the tiny costs and trivial casualties sustained so far, it's a long, long way from the "quagmire" you rather propagandistically tried to describe it as. So far, at any rate.
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  18. Randal says:
    @Kirt
    Where exactly has the US triumphed recently? It's one thing to change a regime, quite another to actually control a country and get something profitable out of it. And I don't buy the argument that it is better to fight jihadists far away than close to home either with respect to the US or Russia. Better to fight on your own turf than on your enemy's where you have to deal with long and vulnerable supply lines to distant and vulnerable bases against local forces which know the lay of the land and have the extra motivation of defending their own homes.

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.

    As for whether it’s better to fight them over there than to fight them over here, clearly it depends upon the circumstances. For the US that case when it is made by neocon and militarist warmongers is usually a lie because the US is uniquely (albeit not completely) protected in its position of continental security, and attacks upon the US and its forces almost invariably stem entirely from prior US aggressive interventionism. Russia does not have that luxury, and furthermore Russia’s jihadist and other enemies are backed, pushed and enabled by the resources of the world’s only superpower, with military and “black” subversion budgets bigger than most countries’ entire state budgets.

    In the case of Syria, clearly Russia has the advantage of operating in cooperation with an existing legitimate government which evidently retains broad popular support. Given the tiny costs and trivial casualties sustained so far, it’s a long, long way from the “quagmire” you rather propagandistically tried to describe it as. So far, at any rate.

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    • Replies: @Vidi

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.
     
    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

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  19. @yurivku
    Well again clever plan of Putin ... sorry Andrei, I have alot to say, but tonight I'm on phone, so I, probably, will, later. Now I just say - disagree. And not only me. Needless to say I'll vote for Grudinin.

    That’s exactly what the West would like you to do.

    Here is a hint why: Soviet Union was feared, Soviet Union was respected, Soviet Union always retaliated in kind, no one was messing with Soviet Union.
    Where is Soviet Union now?

    Please, think about it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @yurivku
    You think you are clever, you think you are smart. I think differently, would you like to know what exactly? Think about it
    , @Felix Keverich
    Soviet Union was voluntarily abolished by its own leaders and people, who were both convinced at the time that the West was their friend. I know it sounds crazy when I put it this way, but that's exactly what happened!

    It was a stupid, left-wing system that died because it was left-wing and stupid, not because it was too assertive on the international stage.

    , @Sergey Krieger
    Soviet union is not around for different reason directly opposite to what you just wrote. Soviet elites sold put own country and people and gave USA everything for nothing.
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  20. Jackieeagle says: • Website

    So far little attention has been paid to the recent Putin-Bibi phone call, but what if Putin simply advised Bibi that he was adding S-400s and Pantsirs to the air defences of all bases where Russian personnel is operating?

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  21. yurivku says:
    @Simpleguest
    That's exactly what the West would like you to do.

    Here is a hint why: Soviet Union was feared, Soviet Union was respected, Soviet Union always retaliated in kind, no one was messing with Soviet Union.
    Where is Soviet Union now?

    Please, think about it.

    You think you are clever, you think you are smart. I think differently, would you like to know what exactly? Think about it

    Read More
    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    I am sympathetic to what Russia is trying to achieve.
    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.
    There's nothing more to it.
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  22. Ma Laoshi says:
    @Randal

    That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn’t *want* to do this–that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying “When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word.”
     
    Well, yes and no. It's hardly as if providing the Syrians with the kind of air defences that will stand up to Israeli and US attacks is easy or cost-free. Quite the contrary - the response of both Israel and the US to attacks on their aircraft will undoubtedly be attacks on the air defences concerned, and likely very effective ones. There will be considerable costs of replacing destroyed equipment and retraining operators, let alone dealing with the political and diplomatic consequences of Russian operators (or "instructors") getting killed. Russia will likely have to stand nose to nose with the superpower again, to deter outright open war against Syria. With the first shot down US plane much of the anti-war American political and public opinion will melt away, because Americans in general are infantile about things like that and can never accept that other people can hit them back even when the US government is pummeling them constantly. That's "unprovoked aggression" for Americans. And who knows how Trump would react, since (as his missile murder of Syrians last year in response to some nasty photos demonstrated) he is pretty infantile himself..

    It's not just a simple matter of giving them some stuff and declaring Syrian air space closed to Israelis and US aircraft.

    And motivation does come into it as well - Russia is not eager to fall out irrevocably with the Israelis. For that matter I think the Israelis would rather not fall out with the Russians openly. It's the logic of the situation that is driving them in that direction regardless - the Israeli determination to overthrow Assad in order to pursue their obsessive aggression against Hezbollah and Iran, coming into collision with Russian determination to prevent another US-backed regime change of one of their remaining allies.

    No need for rather fanciful theories about secret Russian and US collusion to partition Syria - though it might well be that both come to believe that is necessary, being the best they each can get if neither ultimately can defeat the other.

    Your point about the unpredictable costs of defending Syrian airspace is well taken. But “anti-war opinion” in the US — you’re kidding, right? Part of Trump’s genius, such as it is, is his realization that the anti-war sentiment of his base always was wafer-thin. Mostly, his deplorables didn’t like/trust somebody like Obama prosecuting what they felt were rightfully Republican wars–just like Democrats were immediately OK with Bush’s wars once Obama took over. Trump voters *like* the drumbeat against Iran because of religion, and against Venezuela because of “socialism”. Meanwhile, the Democrats never really moved on after Hillary and clamor for much, much more, while that Sanders fella–well at his age, who can really make out what he’s mumbling these days.

    Who can know the future, but there is another side to this: when The Donald and Bibi get a nice pile of dead bodies delivered to their doorstep, for the first time they’d be under pressure to explain to their voters what the hell they’re doing and supporting again in Syria. Of those two, only Trump could realistically carry out massive strikes on Syria militarily, but I doubt he could do it politically if the other side is willing to hit back hard.

    I disagree with your characterization of Trump’s missile strike. Yes I’ve read Hersh, but even if I trust him I certainly don’t trust his sources. Trump may or may not be an overage infant, but this was a US Government decision by ruthless, experienced generals, to do something kinetic and probe the adversary’s reaction. The absence of a sufficiently severe reaction contributed to the present mess.

    Yes the Russian-Israeli relationship is delicate, but Israelis can play Middle Eastern theater with the best of them, and it shouldn’t be taken at face value. They like to bomb Syria when they can get away with it; when you stop them they’ll yell “Holocaust, holocaust” as they always do, and then they’ll move on. Longer term, Israelis have to learn that their security is linked to the security of other peoples in the region, and a comprehensive agreement should be negotiated. Jews hate this idea of mutuality for racial reasons, so they must be forced to accept it.

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    • Replies: @yurivku

    Trump may or may not be an overage infant, but this was a US Government decision by ruthless, experienced generals, to do something kinetic and probe the adversary’s reaction. The absence of a sufficiently severe reaction contributed to the present mess.
     
    Exactly

    Longer term, Israelis have to learn that their security is linked to the security of other peoples in the region, and a comprehensive agreement should be negotiated.
     
    Agree.
    And everybody should know (including brave moron Macron) that their actions, including stupid words, should be payed for. In full scale.
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  23. @yurivku

    Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).

     

    No, they have succeeded a little. Many of us are blaming Putin for he did not react on these hostile actions from ZUS. I in particular, time where people believed in Clever Plan of Putin (Хитрый план Путина = ХПП) is over. Now it looks as a weakness and lack of determination.

    But this will not get people to vote for US-oriented candidates, contrary it will upper the support of anti US forces.

    Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses
     
    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I'm afraid he won't. The story of Putin's counteraction to ZUS hostility it's a story of retreats (sanctions, diplomacy, ... now Syria) with only couple of exclusions, the main is Crimea and the second is the very beginning of Syrian battle.

    So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed.
     
    Yes, and it should be done immediately.

    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime’s main (only) concern is self-preservation – I think most of us can see this now.

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    • Replies: @Miro23

    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime’s main (only) concern is self-preservation – I think most of us can see this now.
     
    Following the "self-preservation" line, the different actors here have different interests:

    Putin - Along with his generals, Putin's surely concerned about the orchestrated anti-Russia propaganda emanating from the US Deep State. He's aware that the same kind of anti-Iraq propaganda proceeded the Iraq war, and now the US/Israel are again ratcheting up the tension in Syria. There are enormous risks in all this, so maybe Syria is a real life demonstration to the US that Russia has the technical capability to defend itself against a strike on Russia itself. Also, resistance to the US wins points in contested upcoming elections.

    Erdogan - Erdogan knows that Gulenist coup attempt was cooked up by the Israel/CIA Deep State. It was plain to see how US forces stationed at Incirlik (joint US/Turkish airbase) carefully looked the other way while Gulenist forces used the base as a headquarters to launch sorties against NATO ally Turkey's legitimately elected government and legitimate president (Erdogan). So, Erdogan is no friend of the US Zioglob, and a strong response to the Kurds is also essential for his political survival, given years of insurgency in Eastern Turkey and the new CIA/Deep State idea of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq/Syria (Turkey? Iran?).

    Trump - Trump was elected on no more ME wars, and he was probably pushing the political limit with his cruise missile strike on a Syrian air base. If he supported full US engagement in a Syrian war it would probably be political suicide. On the other hand, he is increasingly being pushed by a rabid crowd of Zionist urgently requiring the US to knock out Syria, and then Iran, while they're also setting up Russia (Russian hacking). So, a good question for Trump is whether his "self-preservation" lies with the US public or the Deep State.

    Israel - For Israel's Likudniks, the US is an prime asset that needs to be exploited, and it's the only way they can get to destroy Syria and Iran, which they want to happen ASAP. Russia is getting in the way so the US Zionist media demonizes Russia, and equally, US nationalist opposition is developing into a problem (wouldn't have been under anointed candidate HRC) so the Deep State has to turn the screws on US dissidents and ramp up totalitarianism.

    US Public - "Self-preservation" here means refusing to accept confrontations with Syria, Iran, Turkey and Russia (and rather seeking improved relations with these countries) plus facing off the Deep State. Inevitably this means the Public as The Public (not their "representatives") on the streets of American cities with a general and personal demonstration of their rejection of the ME wars and the Deep State - although its doubtful that they're capable of it.

    , @Vojkan
    As a Serb, if I were Putin I would have done nothing differently than him regarding Ukraine. Sometimes what we feel and what is real are two different things. He did what was necessary and possible.
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  24. @yurivku
    Well again clever plan of Putin ... sorry Andrei, I have alot to say, but tonight I'm on phone, so I, probably, will, later. Now I just say - disagree. And not only me. Needless to say I'll vote for Grudinin.

    Here is a superb essay by Patrick Bahzad at Colonel Lang’s Blog. I think you may find it interesting. BTW, operational summary done on the superb level by Patrick.

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/02/seven-years-into-the-civil-war-what-is-left-of-the-syrian-arab-army-.html

    Read More
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  25. @Simpleguest
    That's exactly what the West would like you to do.

    Here is a hint why: Soviet Union was feared, Soviet Union was respected, Soviet Union always retaliated in kind, no one was messing with Soviet Union.
    Where is Soviet Union now?

    Please, think about it.

    Soviet Union was voluntarily abolished by its own leaders and people, who were both convinced at the time that the West was their friend. I know it sounds crazy when I put it this way, but that’s exactly what happened!

    It was a stupid, left-wing system that died because it was left-wing and stupid, not because it was too assertive on the international stage.

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    • Agree: Cyrano, Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    True, the Soviet Union was voluntarily dismantled, but I think that the main contributing factor for its demise were its internal demographics. I will leave it at that, since this is not the topic of our discussion.

    Returning to present day Russian Federation, it is much weaker entity compared to the Soviet Union, solely based on its much smaller population.

    As I replied to "yurivky" earlier, I am sympathetic to Russia and I think it's best that they, for the time being, stick to their president. That's all.
    , @polskijoe
    I agree, the largest reason the SU fell was because of certain leaders inside the SU who want it.
    They thought the West would be friends.

    The game was called "convergence". The same thing Lenin and Trotsky wanted.
    West and Russia join into one. However, Lenin and Trotsky were opposed by Anglo Tory imperialists.
    but supported by Fabian Socialists, and Jewish capitalists.

    Stalin prevented this. And he was the reason the Cold War started. He rejected the Baruch Plan.

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.
    , @Sergey Krieger
    Do not tell we Soviet people. Majority was against it. It is your personal opinion. I was against it and so was everybody I knew personally. Elites indeed sold us. But they were barking upon wrong tree, the tree that already passed its prime and was dying. We are seeing the process right now of this system death. Our resources bought them some 15-20 years but all good things come to end. They were living on debt already in i0s and now they sold future of grandkids too. If you believe this is not stupid crazy system I seriously doubt your intelligence.
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  26. Vidi says:
    @Randal
    The US doesn't need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals - reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying - Libya.

    As for whether it's better to fight them over there than to fight them over here, clearly it depends upon the circumstances. For the US that case when it is made by neocon and militarist warmongers is usually a lie because the US is uniquely (albeit not completely) protected in its position of continental security, and attacks upon the US and its forces almost invariably stem entirely from prior US aggressive interventionism. Russia does not have that luxury, and furthermore Russia's jihadist and other enemies are backed, pushed and enabled by the resources of the world's only superpower, with military and "black" subversion budgets bigger than most countries' entire state budgets.

    In the case of Syria, clearly Russia has the advantage of operating in cooperation with an existing legitimate government which evidently retains broad popular support. Given the tiny costs and trivial casualties sustained so far, it's a long, long way from the "quagmire" you rather propagandistically tried to describe it as. So far, at any rate.

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.

    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

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    • Replies: @Cyrano
    Thank God U.S. is not Germany or Russia. If it was the Germans or the Russians spending that kind of money on the military, they would have taken over the solar system by now at least. Instead, U.S. can’t win control even over a lousy earth. So much for the greatest military.
    , @utu

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.
     
    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.
    , @RobinG
    "The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions..."

    No, it just needs to stop anyone else from profiting. Currently, the prime target for denial of resources is China, but.....

    "Historically, Saudi Arabia has been seen as a pivotal country in the United States’ Middle East energy strategies, which formed a core template of Cold War-era politics to keep the former Soviet Union out of the region." M.K. Bhadrakumar|
     
    Not to mention depressing the nations it regime changes or invades.
    , @Biff

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.
     
    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.
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  27. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians if they try anything.

    It may be already happening. Looks like Russia got whooped much worse than they admitted – http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mercenaries-testing-us-lost-300-troops-reports-2018-2?amp%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_source=quora

    Read More
    • Replies: @bluedog
    Strange I thought you were intelligent enough to separate fact from propaganda rather than perpetuating it,I guess I was wrong for that's already been outed as nothing but propaganda....
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  28. Cyrano says:
    @Vidi

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.
     
    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    Thank God U.S. is not Germany or Russia. If it was the Germans or the Russians spending that kind of money on the military, they would have taken over the solar system by now at least. Instead, U.S. can’t win control even over a lousy earth. So much for the greatest military.

    Read More
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  29. FB says:

    Ok…so there’s a lot to unpack here…starting with the idea that Russia is being increasingly bitchslapped by the US in Syria and is doing nothing about it…

    This article proceeds on the assumption that everything we know about the US air attack on Pro-Syrian forces…which included some Russian military contractors…is in plain sight…

    This is not the case…information from any battlefield is tightly controlled by all sides…with the very minimum of facts made available…and that after a certain ‘pause’ period in order for the respective sides to craft their ‘official’ stories…

    When we examine some details that may not be generally known…it may become clear that the US strike was one of desperation…not provocation…

    For one thing…the idea of the SDF as some monolithic force is pure farce…like any US-quilted ‘coalition’ this patchwork is extremely fragile…consisting of Kurds, some local Arab tribes that previously supported ISIS…and almost certainly some valuable ISIS commanders and top fighters…

    Most important here…there are also other Arab tribes from the Euphrates Valley area that are enemies of both the Kurds and the Arab tribes that have gone over to the SDF…

    One such tribe is the Al Bakara tribe which reportedly suffered heavily from the US bombardment…

    ‘…the Arab al-Bakara tribe announced in an official statement that dozens of its sons were killed in the US-led coalition airstrikes on the SAA…

    Al-Bakara also vowed in its official statement to continue its fight against ISIS, the US-led coalition and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and described the three forces as “occupiers” and “terrorists”…’

    We recall that the Al-Bakara tribe defected from the SDF last November…

    It’s also known that the oil and gas fields are still in play…and not firmly in the grasp of the US and their Kurdish proxies…

    It’s not clear what exactly is going on…but there have been rumors of the pro-Syrian tribes cutting a deal with the SAA and these tribal militias to walk in and take over…this in fact may have been what was under way when the US decided to strike…

    In other words there is a lot of stuff happening there that is flying under the public radar…

    If the US had to resort to an air massacre in order to keep those energy fields from falling out of its grasp…then that is only going to make things worse for them in the long run…as usual they are slowly but surely making enemies out of everybody…

    Then there is this author’s simplistic take on Russia using the Turks as a battering ram against the US…even going so far as fanciful thinking about Turks targeting US forces…

    Again this is a gross oversimplification that is also dangerous…

    The Turks have their own very dangerous ideas about Afrin and that entire Northeast corner of Syria…where they already have a sizable presence after last year’s ‘Euphrates Shield’ operation…

    Erdogan speaks openly about taking that entire region and ‘giving it back to its rightful owners’…

    Those rightful owners being the three million Syrian jihadi sympathizers who fled Syria as the SAA routed their strongholds…

    Putting all those ‘civilians’ there under Turkish protection amounts to the long-sought northern Syria Safe Haven that the US has also been talking up since practically the beginning…

    This would be even more catastrophic for Syria’s territorial integrity than even the US land grab east of the Euphrates…which has no long term chance for survival…as one commenter here aptly drew a comparison with the Dien Bien Phu situation in Vietnam…

    So the idea of the Turks overrunning Afrin is very dangerous…there are constant reports and rumors that the Afrin Kurds are on the brink of coming to terms with the SAA so the SAA can come in and proclaim Syrian sovereignty over the area…

    In this scenario…backed by Russian diplomatic and military guarantees…the Turks would have no choice but to retreat…their raison d’etre would be gone if the Kurdish Afrin is in the Syrian fold…

    Right now Tillerson is in Ankara and you can be sure that there is lots of talk going on…for the US there is no problem with the Turks taking over Afrin and setting up their ‘safe zone’…

    The only problem is how to make this not look like a total sellout of the Afrin Kurds…

    So let’s be realistic here…Erdogan is nobody’s attack dog but his own…and he even has common cause with the US for that ‘safe zone’…

    The only question is when the Afrin Kurds are going to come to their senses and let the SAA take over…with Russian guarantee of course…

    Right now they seem to be willing to try to hold out but they are getting pasted pretty bad…they may even have some silly notions that the US will make Turkey back off…as if…

    So for the Russians it’s a waiting game…there is no need to panic…and even less need to paint events as Russians turning the other cheek…

    Certainly we can assume with pretty good confidence that a some US specops and ‘advisers’ have been wiped out in Idlib during the big SAA and Tiger Forces advance there in recent weeks…not to mention the deadly Russian precision strikes after the Su25 downing…

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    • Replies: @Anon
    You always have good analysis with detailed weaponry knowledge. But don't get into any argument with those Germans, you have no skill & patient for the trolls they enjoy playing on you.
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  30. How does the US supply the troops in northeast Syria?

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    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    Through Iraq or Jordan. By land or air.
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  31. Eagle Eye says:

    OT but perhaps interesting that the Maidan operation is seeing more sunlight. Not new on this site, but we are now seeing the MSM getting in on the act, with exposure through two prestigious sources (WSJ journalist writing in Times Literary Supplement) as detailed by Peter Hitchens in :

    Now it starts to come out – Kiev’s 2014 ‘revolution’ was achieved by ‘heavily-armed thugs’, many of them ‘neo-Nazi’

    For some years now I have been pointing out that the supposedly wondrous ‘People Power’ revolution in Kiev in February 2014 was in fact a violent putsch, backed by foreign powers and involving some pretty nasty elements.

    I get a lot of mockery and spite for this.

    Well, I would just like to draw readers’ attention to a powerful letter in this week’s Times Literary Supplement (TLS), over the name of David Roman, a Wall Street Journal reporter.

    You may access it (partially) here:

    https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/private/letters-to-the-editor-162/

    It begins (in response to a book review in an earlier edition of the TLS) ;

    ‘As a Wall Street Journal correspondent who helped to cover the revolution and its aftermath, I must correct the impression left by her review that a courageous popular response to armed repression led to victory for the protesters. On the contrary, on the last days of February 2014, armed thugs – many, if not most, heavily armed far-right and neo-Nazi activists from western Ukraine – stormed Maidan square, killing and capturing police officers and forcing the hand of a government that, as well as being unpopular, was bankrupt and diplomatically isolated’.

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2018/02/now-it-starts-to-come-out-kievs-2014-revolution-was-achieved-by-heavily-armed-thugs-many-of-them-neo.html

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    • Agree: RobinG
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  32. @yurivku
    You think you are clever, you think you are smart. I think differently, would you like to know what exactly? Think about it

    I am sympathetic to what Russia is trying to achieve.
    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.
    There’s nothing more to it.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Such arguments are simple-minded: Individualism, loyalty, and consumerism are but a few of the values deriving from bourgeois culture used to blind the average Russian from the actual poverty of the class that exploit them. For the poor and working classes, these values work against our best interests. That we practice them without understanding only serves to keep us subjected to domination by capitalist classes.

    An essential aspect of revolutionary nationalist struggle is to identify and reject bourgeois values that perpetuate our oppression, exploitation and degradation, and though sabotaged previously by capitalists, many Russians are realizing that progress toward communism can only be impeded and false consciousness by current actors will not blind the working masses. It is important has to realize we have only one choice: to strengthen its revolutionary consciousness, to reject the temptations of becoming more bourgeois and the natural concerns of its class mentality, to identify itself with the working classes and not to oppose the normal development of the process of revolution. This means that in order to truly fulfill the role in the national liberation struggle, the revolutionary petty bourgeoisie MUST BE CAPABLE OF COMMITTING SUICIDE AS A CLASS IN ORDER TO BE REBORN AS REVOLUTIONARY WORKERS, completely identified with the deepest aspirations of the people to which they belong!
    , @yurivku
    Ok, I'm sorry for being rude. Excuse me.

    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.
     
    But please let me deside myself where to stick to. BTW I already mentioned that I'm not Putin's supporter.
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  33. bluedog says:
    @Anonymous
    It may be already happening. Looks like Russia got whooped much worse than they admitted - http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mercenaries-testing-us-lost-300-troops-reports-2018-2?amp%3Butm_medium=referral&utm_source=quora

    Strange I thought you were intelligent enough to separate fact from propaganda rather than perpetuating it,I guess I was wrong for that’s already been outed as nothing but propaganda….

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  34. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Simpleguest
    I am sympathetic to what Russia is trying to achieve.
    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.
    There's nothing more to it.

    Such arguments are simple-minded: Individualism, loyalty, and consumerism are but a few of the values deriving from bourgeois culture used to blind the average Russian from the actual poverty of the class that exploit them. For the poor and working classes, these values work against our best interests. That we practice them without understanding only serves to keep us subjected to domination by capitalist classes.

    An essential aspect of revolutionary nationalist struggle is to identify and reject bourgeois values that perpetuate our oppression, exploitation and degradation, and though sabotaged previously by capitalists, many Russians are realizing that progress toward communism can only be impeded and false consciousness by current actors will not blind the working masses. It is important has to realize we have only one choice: to strengthen its revolutionary consciousness, to reject the temptations of becoming more bourgeois and the natural concerns of its class mentality, to identify itself with the working classes and not to oppose the normal development of the process of revolution. This means that in order to truly fulfill the role in the national liberation struggle, the revolutionary petty bourgeoisie MUST BE CAPABLE OF COMMITTING SUICIDE AS A CLASS IN ORDER TO BE REBORN AS REVOLUTIONARY WORKERS, completely identified with the deepest aspirations of the people to which they belong!

    Read More
    • Replies: @JohnnyRVF
    I spent 43 years working with my hands to own my land and property. I will fight tooth and nail to stop some socialist punk from deciding that all those many, many unpleasant hours of hard, dirty work can be taken for someone who is inherently lazy, believes in their own entitlement and then hides behind a different ideology to mine. There can never be equal outcome of opportunity because there can never be equal motivation between people, or intelligence or strength of character. To even think that a person, especially a male will not covert possesions is naive in the extreme and displays a woeful lack of the fundamentals of societies.
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  35. @Felix Keverich
    Soviet Union was voluntarily abolished by its own leaders and people, who were both convinced at the time that the West was their friend. I know it sounds crazy when I put it this way, but that's exactly what happened!

    It was a stupid, left-wing system that died because it was left-wing and stupid, not because it was too assertive on the international stage.

    True, the Soviet Union was voluntarily dismantled, but I think that the main contributing factor for its demise were its internal demographics. I will leave it at that, since this is not the topic of our discussion.

    Returning to present day Russian Federation, it is much weaker entity compared to the Soviet Union, solely based on its much smaller population.

    As I replied to “yurivky” earlier, I am sympathetic to Russia and I think it’s best that they, for the time being, stick to their president. That’s all.

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    • Replies: @Felix Keverich

    Returning to present day Russian Federation, it is much weaker entity compared to the Soviet Union, solely based on its much smaller population.
     
    Are you serious? Russia is much weaker entity because most Uzbeks now live outside of its borders? LMAO

    It is certainly a stronger country than Iran, which successfully endured confrontation with the entire Western world for decades. Russian leaders do not need to cower in fear of US.
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  36. Then, go ahead and ruin your country, once again.

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    • Replies: @Simpleguest
    This was addressed to Anonimus #35.
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  37. @Simpleguest
    Then, go ahead and ruin your country, once again.

    This was addressed to Anonimus #35.

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  38. El Dato says:
    @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians if they try anything.

    Shopped pics or GTFO!

    Yeah, I know. The US Wehrmacht already killed over 9000 Russkies in one sortie etc. etc.

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  39. It is taking too long for Trump and Putin to realize that the only sane solution to the Syria mess is a joint US/ Russian invasion of Israel. It would probably take 12 hours to roll up the IDF and hang Netanyahu, if that long.

    We must steel ourselves in our resolve to settle this business.

    Read More
    • Agree: renfro, Cloak And Dagger
    • LOL: yurivku
    • Replies: @redmudhooch
    Agreed, it becomes more obvious every day who is the problem, but its not just Israel as a country.
    The MIC, Wall St, International Corporations, Banksters, Big Pharma, NGOs, Think Tanks, Foundations, Institutes, Education system, AIPAC, ALL Foreign Lobbies, Zionists, Christian Zionists, MSM, I could go on and on..........The CABAL!
    Geez Loise the swamp is deep....
    I start to think it is hopeless sometimes, but then I remember that the truth will always come out, GOOD always overcomes evil, eventually.
    People always ask the military guys "what keeps them up at night?" I will tell you that the TRUTH is what keeps them up at night, and Americans coming together to defeat them, that is why they try so damn hard to divide us, to make us hate each other...
    Thats all they have, lies and hate, and we, as Americans, and as human beings, can overcome that, that is one thing that they CAN"T control, unless we allow them to.
    Keep your head up, and help spread the truth, talk to everyone you know, and go to other websites and pass on your knowledge. We will win. We are winning, you can tell that they are in panic mode.
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  40. Hafez you fool! What did you leave behind?

    If you had instituted a strict 2-child-per-couple & free abortion-choice and your son kept that rule in the 2010s there wouldn’t have been 21 million “Syrians”. There might have been only 12 – 15 million Syrians in 2011.

    In 2010 your nation would have a GDP per capita of around 4/5000 USD with an unemployment of around 10% – 15% and 2.2 child per women.

    When your son took over in 2000, his government would have enjoy much more legitimacy and that would have make room for strong reforms leading to a booming decade right around 2010.

    Or you could have learned from the South-Koreans started deep reform right around 1985/1990. Then your son would currently be treated like the foreigners treat the Vietnamese/Indonesian leadership – courted by all major-powers and friends with all middle-powers.

    Your nation’s GDP-per-capita would even rival that of Turkeys with around 8/10000USD and an unemployment of around 5% and fertility of 1.8 child per woman in 2010.

    The Isrealis would think twice taking on a Syrian Armed Force, which would enjoy a budget of 3-5 billion USD per year.

    Look even the mighty Chinese think twice about taking on the puny Vietnamese forces, who have 4,5 billion USD.

    Hafez I forgive you for Hama, but fate & historians will never forgive you and other 20th century-leaders, who refused to enforce a strict family-planning and didn’t allow free abortion.

    You nation, Congo-Kinshasa and Yemen are first nations to wrecked by Young Angry Men and foreign vultures. Many others will follow.

    At least some of the foreign vultures are being swamped by Young Angry Men from the countries, the vultures tear apart.

    Who knew the Confucian century was sparked in an abortion-clinic in Busan, became a blaze in a family-planning office in Chengdu and became an undenialable truth in a condom-factory near Haiphong.

    It’s easy to be remembered as a great statesman. Just shed Young Angry Men’s blood! It’s easy when these men are still 8 weeks old fetuses!

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  41. @Twodees Partain
    It is taking too long for Trump and Putin to realize that the only sane solution to the Syria mess is a joint US/ Russian invasion of Israel. It would probably take 12 hours to roll up the IDF and hang Netanyahu, if that long.

    We must steel ourselves in our resolve to settle this business.

    Agreed, it becomes more obvious every day who is the problem, but its not just Israel as a country.
    The MIC, Wall St, International Corporations, Banksters, Big Pharma, NGOs, Think Tanks, Foundations, Institutes, Education system, AIPAC, ALL Foreign Lobbies, Zionists, Christian Zionists, MSM, I could go on and on……….The CABAL!
    Geez Loise the swamp is deep….
    I start to think it is hopeless sometimes, but then I remember that the truth will always come out, GOOD always overcomes evil, eventually.
    People always ask the military guys “what keeps them up at night?” I will tell you that the TRUTH is what keeps them up at night, and Americans coming together to defeat them, that is why they try so damn hard to divide us, to make us hate each other…
    Thats all they have, lies and hate, and we, as Americans, and as human beings, can overcome that, that is one thing that they CAN”T control, unless we allow them to.
    Keep your head up, and help spread the truth, talk to everyone you know, and go to other websites and pass on your knowledge. We will win. We are winning, you can tell that they are in panic mode.

    Read More
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  42. @Simpleguest
    True, the Soviet Union was voluntarily dismantled, but I think that the main contributing factor for its demise were its internal demographics. I will leave it at that, since this is not the topic of our discussion.

    Returning to present day Russian Federation, it is much weaker entity compared to the Soviet Union, solely based on its much smaller population.

    As I replied to "yurivky" earlier, I am sympathetic to Russia and I think it's best that they, for the time being, stick to their president. That's all.

    Returning to present day Russian Federation, it is much weaker entity compared to the Soviet Union, solely based on its much smaller population.

    Are you serious? Russia is much weaker entity because most Uzbeks now live outside of its borders? LMAO

    It is certainly a stronger country than Iran, which successfully endured confrontation with the entire Western world for decades. Russian leaders do not need to cower in fear of US.

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  43. utu says:
    @Vidi

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.
     
    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.

    Read More
    • Agree: RobinG, Seamus Padraig
    • Replies: @Vidi

    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.
     
    I doubt the "real plan" was to give Afghanistan back to the Taliban, and give Iran extra influence in Iraq and Syria, which is what is happening now, in spades.

    So you can stop fooling yourself, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya were all disasters. Expensive disasters, in both blood and treasure. More of these will bankrupt the Empire.

    You may think it'll be cheap to foment chaos. But that is so only at first, because conflicts have a habit of escalating. If the U.S. gets sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire, as Israel plainly wants, things will get very, very expensive -- and probably terminal for the Empire.
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  44. RobinG says:
    @Vidi

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.
     
    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    “The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions…”

    No, it just needs to stop anyone else from profiting. Currently, the prime target for denial of resources is China, but…..

    “Historically, Saudi Arabia has been seen as a pivotal country in the United States’ Middle East energy strategies, which formed a core template of Cold War-era politics to keep the former Soviet Union out of the region.” M.K. Bhadrakumar|

    Not to mention depressing the nations it regime changes or invades.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Vidi

    No, it just needs to stop anyone else from profiting. Currently, the prime target for denial of resources is China, but…..
     
    You may fool yourself into thinking that chaos and denial will be cheap. But you'll be going counter to the interests of the countries in question -- who want peace and prosperity -- so eventually the U.S. will have to step in directly, and that'll be expensive and probably terminal for the Empire.

    Not to mention depressing the nations it regime changes or invades.
     
    You aren't even pretending to care for the people in those countries. See how morally depraved the U.S. has become.
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  45. “In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria.”

    There is audio evidence at this link:

    http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18216/russian-su-25-frogfoot-attack-jet-shot-down-in-syria

    The last video in that article, after: This video may show the MANPADS launch:

    The missile is launched, and a voice gets excited as the missile locks on to the aircraft’s heat, and he starts chanting “got him… got him… got him” in American English.

    How long until Russian manpads show up in Afghanistan and Iraq to down American aircraft?

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu

    How long until Russian manpads show up in Afghanistan and Iraq to down American aircraft?
     
    Good question. There should have been there long time ago.
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  46. oscar says:

    if us arms isis and al nusra what would happen if taliban got surge weapons from an unknown player, usa would not have bandwidth

    also russians should stop obsessing with “ukronazis”let them have territories as compensation for russian shabas goim complicity in the judeo communist massacre of millions white ukranian christians desecalate stupid war populate eastern russia instead

    Read More
    • Replies: @Byrresheim
    Spot on.

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    While there is absolutely no need to copy present-day Germany's guilt-cult, a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists might actually help the Russians to find solutions and even draw present enemies over to them.

    (I am not going to waste my time answering to irate Russians. I am no enemy of that nation, to the contrary, but if you insist on shutting your eyes fast, don't complain about the occastional stubbed toe: it's completely unnecessary.)
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  47. FB says:

    ‘…The other option for the Russians would be to offer upgrades (software and missile) to the existing Syrian air defense systems, especially their road-mobile 2K12 Kub and 9K37 Buk systems…’

    Another commenter noted @14 that Syrian air defenses have already been upgraded…

    We are not privy to what exactly has been supplied but it worked well enough to take down an IAF F16 that invaded Syria’s airspace…

    Reportedly several more IAF aircraft were damaged in the missile volley…including an F15 [the big guy] which was forced to make an emergency landing…

    The Israelis were decisively beaten back…no small feat considering the proficiency of their pilots…who spend untold hours training specifically for these kinds of missions…

    The talk about Kubs and Pantsirs is not really relevant here…these are short-range point defense systems designed mainly to protect ground forces from air attack…

    They do offer the advantage of mobility…and we recall that a Pantsir downed a Turkish F4 in 2012…

    But a lone ’60s era Phantom is not the same as a massed Israeli attack that is going to make use of AWACS [Grumman E2 Hawkeye] as well as airborne jamming and standoff missiles targeting SAM radars [HARMs]…

    Considering the size of this attack…a full squadron strength…this was a full-on attack that no doubt used all of the above capabilities and was meticulously planned and trained…and they got their ass kicked…

    So what’s going on…?

    Clearly there was some heavy duty air defense on display here…

    Let’s break this down…the S200 is the Big Guy in the Syrian arsenal…despite its age [service entry 1967]…this rocket is a beast…

    Until very recently…with the introduction of the 400 km range 40N6 in 2015 [the big gun in the S400]…the S200 still held the world record for range at 160 nautical miles [300 km]…

    Its maximum speed of 2.5 km per second is actually faster than the S400 rockets at 2 km/s…this due mainly to its liquid fuel engine which will always outperform solid fuel rockets of a given weight…due to their higher specific impulse…

    So the S200 is a formidable rocket…

    The other key component of a SAM system is the radar…or radars…

    The legacy engagement radar on the S200 is the 5N62 Square Pair…a mechanically steered unit that can be broken down and transported…but does not really qualify as ‘mobile’…

    However…as the Russians developed their third and fourth generations SAMs…they came up with much more powerful and mobile radars…the S300 replaced the Square Pair with the 5N63 ‘Flap Lid’…which is a phased array radar that scans electronically in elevation…and rotates mechanically for azimuth…

    ‘…The 5N63 was a huge generational leap in technology from the…Square Pair mechanically steered and scanned engagement radars on preceding V-PVO SAMs.

    With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’

    The 5N63 and its successors are fully mobile for five minute shoot and scoot…its mobile command post has the capability to control S200 batteries…

    This radar or even the newest version 92N2E Grave Stone used on the S400 would be a formidable pairing with the mighty S200 rocket…

    Clearly something is going on with Syrian air defenses…there is no question that they beat back a very strong Israeli assault…and inflicted what amounts to unacceptable damage for a single operation of this size…

    It is also worth noting that the human element is even more important than the hardware…always has…always will be…

    ‘…RULE 1: Weapons are not the most important ingredient in winning wars.
    People come first; ideas are second and hardware is only third…’

    Pierre Sprey…designer of the A10 and F16…[page 101...]

    ‘…After 1973’s crushing 80-to-1 victory by Israelis flying F-4s and Mirages against Arab pilots flying MiGs, the commander of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), Gen. Mordecai Hod, famously remarked that the outcome would have been the same if both sides had swapped planes.

    He was exactly correct, simply because the IAF had the most rigorous system in the world for filtering out all but the most gifted pilots. In every war, it’s the few superb pilots that win the air battle.

    A tiny handful of such pilots have dominated every air-to-air battleground since World War I: roughly 10 percent of all pilots (the “hawks”) score 60 percent to 80 percent of the dogfight kills; the other 90 percent of pilots (“doves”) are the fodder for the hawks of the opposing side. Technical performance differences between opposing fighter planes pale in comparison…’

    ‘…Submarine warfare is strikingly similar: the best 10 percent of the skippers account for the majority of the tonnage sunk…’

    Sprey could have added SAM crews to that list…

    The 250′th Air Defense Missile Brigade…headed by Colonel Zoltan Dani…scored all three Serb kills in the Nato air war against Yugoslavia…

    This unit took out not only a ‘stealth’ F117 Nighthawk flown by Lt. Colonel Dale Zelko…but heavily damaged another F117 that staggered back to Aviano but never flew again…and also downed the F16 of then Lt. Colonel David Goldfein…now General Goldfein and USAF Chief of Staff…

    Here is Zelko’s canopy in the Belgrade Aviation Museum…

    And here is the Goldfein trophy…at same location…

    So for all the hoopla about the Russians needing to quickly sell S300s and S400s to Syria…there is much more to consider…the Serbs did just fine with completely ancient equipment…one brigade was a ‘hawk’…

    Judging by the beating the Syrian air defenses laid on the Israeli raiders…it is almost certain that the specific issues of equipment upgrades…and more important…crew training has made some major leaps and bounds…

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    • Replies: @Paranam Kid
    Wow FB, that's quite an analysis. Your reasoning makes sense, but I am left with 1 question: why has it taken the Syrians 35 years to down their 1st Israel fighter jet? If, like you say, people and ideas come 1st and 2nd respectively and can do a lot with even outdated equipment like the Serbs did, then why only now in the case of Syria? Surely the Syrians are not any less capable than the Serbs, esp. having had the Russians on their soil for much longer than this war.
    , @Eagle Eye
    Thanks for a detailed (and illustrated!) explanation that makes a lot of sense to intelligent but perhaps not specialist readers. The scenario is quite unusual: HOW DID A SUPERANNUATED SAM-2 MANAGE TO TAKE DOWN AN F-16 with sophisticated RWR?

    In fact, it seems conceivable that with highly accurate (ground-based) engagement radar support, the missile did not use its built-in homing radar at all and was effectively detonated by remote control.

    The new Russian radar installation in Syria may include radar transmitters and receivers that are widely separated. (In conventional radar installations, e.g. at an airport, a single antenna installation is switched between transmitter and receiver.) In particular, a receiver installation may have been placed close to the Israeli border for much greater accuracy.

    Without a transmitted signal, the receiver installation would be hard to locate and neutralize. On the other hand, a transmitter close to the border would be at risk of being taken down within minutes of activation.

    The Israelis, of course, will have been generally aware that they were operating much closer to the edge of the envelope (or beyond). Following recent events, there will certainly be some rethinking of tactics and perhaps of wider strategy.

    Domestic policy concerns will play a role, with IDF commanders and Israeli voters glancing nervously over Netanyahu's shoulder at possible successors.

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  48. Vidi says:
    @utu

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.
     
    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.

    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.

    I doubt the “real plan” was to give Afghanistan back to the Taliban, and give Iran extra influence in Iraq and Syria, which is what is happening now, in spades.

    So you can stop fooling yourself, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya were all disasters. Expensive disasters, in both blood and treasure. More of these will bankrupt the Empire.

    You may think it’ll be cheap to foment chaos. But that is so only at first, because conflicts have a habit of escalating. If the U.S. gets sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire, as Israel plainly wants, things will get very, very expensive — and probably terminal for the Empire.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Seamus Padraig
    But getting "sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire" and staying there permanently is Washington's goal. As long as there are "terrorists" operating there, they have an excuse to stay. This strategy serves several purposes:

    A. It denies control of them to any other power, such as Russia or China.

    B. These territories can be used to destabilize other neighboring states, if necessary (think Pakistan, Iran or Central Asia.)

    C. It gives US special forces bases of operations for covert action or reconnaissance against those same neighboring states.

    And what if some clever country like Iran manages to gain influence over one of these states, as it did in Iraq? Well, in Washingtonland, that would constitute a Crisis!!! and an Iranian act of aggression!!! demanding a response. In short, they would then have a justification for--you guessed it!--yet another intervention in the ME.
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  49. Vidi says:
    @RobinG
    "The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions..."

    No, it just needs to stop anyone else from profiting. Currently, the prime target for denial of resources is China, but.....

    "Historically, Saudi Arabia has been seen as a pivotal country in the United States’ Middle East energy strategies, which formed a core template of Cold War-era politics to keep the former Soviet Union out of the region." M.K. Bhadrakumar|
     
    Not to mention depressing the nations it regime changes or invades.

    No, it just needs to stop anyone else from profiting. Currently, the prime target for denial of resources is China, but…..

    You may fool yourself into thinking that chaos and denial will be cheap. But you’ll be going counter to the interests of the countries in question — who want peace and prosperity — so eventually the U.S. will have to step in directly, and that’ll be expensive and probably terminal for the Empire.

    Not to mention depressing the nations it regime changes or invades.

    You aren’t even pretending to care for the people in those countries. See how morally depraved the U.S. has become.

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  50. utu says:
    @Carlton Meyer
    "In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria."

    There is audio evidence at this link:
    http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18216/russian-su-25-frogfoot-attack-jet-shot-down-in-syria

    The last video in that article, after: This video may show the MANPADS launch:

    The missile is launched, and a voice gets excited as the missile locks on to the aircraft's heat, and he starts chanting "got him... got him... got him" in American English.

    How long until Russian manpads show up in Afghanistan and Iraq to down American aircraft?

    How long until Russian manpads show up in Afghanistan and Iraq to down American aircraft?

    Good question. There should have been there long time ago.

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  51. yurivku says:
    @Simpleguest
    I am sympathetic to what Russia is trying to achieve.
    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.
    There's nothing more to it.

    Ok, I’m sorry for being rude. Excuse me.

    I also happen to think that the best thing, for the moment, is for you to stick to your president.

    But please let me deside myself where to stick to. BTW I already mentioned that I’m not Putin’s supporter.

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  52. yurivku says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Yes. Putin should at least supply SAA with modern antiaircraft solutions (Pantsir-S1, S-300, S-400, MANPADs). But I’m afraid he won’t.
     
    It is a bit more complicated, OK--it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that "localization" of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:

    1. Syrian AD has been fully (I underscore--fully, that means not just voice commands, but all data-links, CEC--Cooperative Engagement Capability, EW "inclusion", C3, the works etc.).

    2. The "Sale" of S-400 to Syria can easily be arranged by declaring of "contractual transfer" of S-400 in Masyaf.

    3. AD capabilities of Russia and Syria in the last 3-4 months grew significantly, to put it mildly. The capability is already there, as I wrote in the other thread--some photos from Syria confirm that there is a presence of Buk-M2 in Syria. This is enormously capable system. How many? Well, sure as hell not one.

    The build up is three and it is clear and confirmed. I doubt that this indicates any kind of "retreats", "passivity" etc. Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing--both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded. Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no--is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.

    It is a bit more complicated, OK–it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that “localization” of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:

    Well, it is complicated. And I said – “should at least supply “. There is also an option to hit ourself with S-400 … those aircrafts which are present in Syria illegally and which are bombing our ally.

    Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing–both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded.

    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
    Otherwise not a single Israelis jet was grounded, but many of those.
    What about S-200, I was taught of their structure when was studying in Baumanka (Moscow High Technical School named after Bauman) and in 1982-1984 I was called to Soviet Army and serving as an officer in S-200 selfchecking division. It was top secret this time, but now it’s obsolet. It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effecive reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I beleive it’s not very effective.
    So why not to supply S-300 and new BUK M3 and Pantsir ?
    It’s lack of political will, I think.

    Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no–is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.

    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late. ZUS getting more and more insane and can limit our options to just one – full scale war with using ALL types of weapons.

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    • Replies: @FB
    Here's what you said about the S200...

    '...It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effective reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I believe it’s not very effective...'
     
    Everything you said is wrong...

    Somehow you missed my #48...

    I already mentioned the S200 exceptional range...300 km...and kinematic performance [2500 meter per second]...faster than any of the S400 missiles...and more range than anything but the biggest 40N6 S400 missile which was introduced only in 2015...

    The S200 was a remarkable technological achievement for the time and it stayed in service with Soviet and Russian PVO [air defense] until the 1990s...

    The semi-active seeker in the nose of the missile [not fully active as you state] was a huge advance over the previous generations S75 and S125 SAMs which had no on-board seeker and used command-link guidance from the ground radar [battery engagement radar]...

    This type of seeker is still used in the most recent generation of SAM missiles...so your comments about not working against aircraft with reduced radar cross section are quite silly...

    Here is what the S200 seeker looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/5G24-FMCW-SARH-Seeker-1S.jpg


    The seeker radar also used what was then a breakthrough technique called continuous wave frequency modulation [CWFM]...instead of pulsed waves...this required sophisticated computing power for that era...

    CWFM is also much more difficult to interfere with and therefore more resistant to electronic countermeasures...this radar technology is still in use in the newest generation systems...but was unique to the S200 at that era...

    With the on-board radar seeker...the chance of hitting the target is greatly increased...that's a fact...

    The reason is that the seeker sends target location signals back to the ground-based engagement radar via downlink transmitter...

    This type of system is called track via missile...or TVM...

    '...The TVM system relays to the ground station radar data produced by the missile seeker, and offers better jam resistance and accuracy against a pure command link guidance package, especially as the missile nears the target...'
     
    That's why TVM is universally used today...clearly you have no idea what you are talking about...

    As I already mentioned...the S200 batteries can be controlled by the newer phased array radars from the S300/400...

    The S200 also carried on board a sophisticated three-axis inertial autopilot...another technology milestone for that era...the 5A43 autopilot is employed to fly the missile along a programmed flight profile without the characteristic energy wasting deviations typical of the earlier S-75 and S-125 designs...

    As for the liquid fuel engine...this actually has some significant advantages...

    The Isayev 5D67 engine is a fantastic engine in the Russian tradition from legendary designer A.M. Isayev...

    It could be throttled from 30 percent to 100 percent power...something that's impossible with solid rocket motors...which are basically just a big firecracker...ie the casing is stuffed with solid propellant and once it starts to burn there is no way to control it...the hot gas exits the nozzle out the bottom and that's it...

    For an interceptor missile the ability to throttle is important...a target aircraft will try to evade a pursuing missile by out-turning it...

    The aircraft can bleed off energy in the turn and tighten its turn increasingly until the missile is no longer able to keep up such a tight turn...

    Turning radius increase with speed...so if your missile can slow down by throttling down the engine...you decrease the turn radius and that target airplane cannot get away from you...

    It is too bad that contemporary interceptor missile design has switched completely to solid rockets...the only real advantage being ease of use...they are basically foolproof...

    But a liquid rocket will always have a performance advantage...ie a higher specific impulse...

    Look at the speeds of some interceptors...the S200 reaches 2.5 km/s...S400 only 2 km/s...the SM3 Block 1A/B reaches 3 km/s mainly because it carries no warhead...ie it is hit to kill interceptor...

    The S200 carries a 217 kg warhead...that's nearly 500 lb...without that warhead the S200 would reach nearly 4 km/s...[I would have to work out the exact math...]

    Any way you look at it the S200 was a fantastic achievement for its time...especially the rocket...which in my view is still as good as anything out there today...

    By networking these S200 batteries with the latest Russian radars...which are total beasts...those Syrian S200s are very potent weapons indeed...especially in the right hands...
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
     
    1.SAA has a significant number of Pantsir-S1.
    2. Buk, especially BukM1 and especially M2 are NOT obsolete--these are thoroughly modern systems but what you meant was probably Kub systems, which SAA also does have--those are obsolete.

    https://southfront.org/syrian-air-defense-forces-buk-surface-to-air-missile-system-photo/

    3. S-200 is an old and obsolete complex yet, it did a job of shooting down IAF F-16, as did old Soviet S-125 which downed F-117 in Yougoslavia.

    4. REAL, which is now confirmed, integration of Syrian AD into Russian AD makes, considering the most difficult part of ANY air-defense operation--tracking, targeting, lock-on, firing solution, much-much easier.

    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late.
     
    Wars are not fought like this. Otherwise Red Army wouldn't win at Stalingrad and Kursk. Grandiose gestures and instant gratification from "giving them hell"--is not a viable strategy. In fact, it is a road to defeat.
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  53. yurivku says:
    @Ma Laoshi
    Your point about the unpredictable costs of defending Syrian airspace is well taken. But "anti-war opinion" in the US -- you're kidding, right? Part of Trump's genius, such as it is, is his realization that the anti-war sentiment of his base always was wafer-thin. Mostly, his deplorables didn't like/trust somebody like Obama prosecuting what they felt were rightfully Republican wars--just like Democrats were immediately OK with Bush's wars once Obama took over. Trump voters *like* the drumbeat against Iran because of religion, and against Venezuela because of "socialism". Meanwhile, the Democrats never really moved on after Hillary and clamor for much, much more, while that Sanders fella--well at his age, who can really make out what he's mumbling these days.

    Who can know the future, but there is another side to this: when The Donald and Bibi get a nice pile of dead bodies delivered to their doorstep, for the first time they'd be under pressure to explain to their voters what the hell they're doing and supporting again in Syria. Of those two, only Trump could realistically carry out massive strikes on Syria militarily, but I doubt he could do it politically if the other side is willing to hit back hard.

    I disagree with your characterization of Trump's missile strike. Yes I've read Hersh, but even if I trust him I certainly don't trust his sources. Trump may or may not be an overage infant, but this was a US Government decision by ruthless, experienced generals, to do something kinetic and probe the adversary's reaction. The absence of a sufficiently severe reaction contributed to the present mess.

    Yes the Russian-Israeli relationship is delicate, but Israelis can play Middle Eastern theater with the best of them, and it shouldn't be taken at face value. They like to bomb Syria when they can get away with it; when you stop them they'll yell "Holocaust, holocaust" as they always do, and then they'll move on. Longer term, Israelis have to learn that their security is linked to the security of other peoples in the region, and a comprehensive agreement should be negotiated. Jews hate this idea of mutuality for racial reasons, so they must be forced to accept it.

    Trump may or may not be an overage infant, but this was a US Government decision by ruthless, experienced generals, to do something kinetic and probe the adversary’s reaction. The absence of a sufficiently severe reaction contributed to the present mess.

    Exactly

    Longer term, Israelis have to learn that their security is linked to the security of other peoples in the region, and a comprehensive agreement should be negotiated.

    Agree.
    And everybody should know (including brave moron Macron) that their actions, including stupid words, should be payed for. In full scale.

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  54. @Anonymous
    Trump will slaughter the Russians if they try anything.

    Of course he will, when he will be so depressed that the only good option open to him will be getting roasted himself. But it is indeed more comforting for certain people to believe in fairy tales of the like you spin here.

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  55. @FB

    '...The other option for the Russians would be to offer upgrades (software and missile) to the existing Syrian air defense systems, especially their road-mobile 2K12 Kub and 9K37 Buk systems...'
     
    Another commenter noted @14 that Syrian air defenses have already been upgraded...

    We are not privy to what exactly has been supplied but it worked well enough to take down an IAF F16 that invaded Syria's airspace...

    Reportedly several more IAF aircraft were damaged in the missile volley...including an F15 [the big guy] which was forced to make an emergency landing...

    The Israelis were decisively beaten back...no small feat considering the proficiency of their pilots...who spend untold hours training specifically for these kinds of missions...

    The talk about Kubs and Pantsirs is not really relevant here...these are short-range point defense systems designed mainly to protect ground forces from air attack...

    They do offer the advantage of mobility...and we recall that a Pantsir downed a Turkish F4 in 2012...

    But a lone '60s era Phantom is not the same as a massed Israeli attack that is going to make use of AWACS [Grumman E2 Hawkeye] as well as airborne jamming and standoff missiles targeting SAM radars [HARMs]...

    Considering the size of this attack...a full squadron strength...this was a full-on attack that no doubt used all of the above capabilities and was meticulously planned and trained...and they got their ass kicked...

    So what's going on...?

    Clearly there was some heavy duty air defense on display here...

    Let's break this down...the S200 is the Big Guy in the Syrian arsenal...despite its age [service entry 1967]...this rocket is a beast...

    Until very recently...with the introduction of the 400 km range 40N6 in 2015 [the big gun in the S400]...the S200 still held the world record for range at 160 nautical miles [300 km]...

    Its maximum speed of 2.5 km per second is actually faster than the S400 rockets at 2 km/s...this due mainly to its liquid fuel engine which will always outperform solid fuel rockets of a given weight...due to their higher specific impulse...

    So the S200 is a formidable rocket...

    The other key component of a SAM system is the radar...or radars...

    The legacy engagement radar on the S200 is the 5N62 Square Pair...a mechanically steered unit that can be broken down and transported...but does not really qualify as 'mobile'...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/5N62-Square-Pair-2S.jpg


    However...as the Russians developed their third and fourth generations SAMs...they came up with much more powerful and mobile radars...the S300 replaced the Square Pair with the 5N63 'Flap Lid'...which is a phased array radar that scans electronically in elevation...and rotates mechanically for azimuth...


    http://www.armyrecognition.com/images/stories/east_europe/russia/missile_vehicle/flap_lid_b/pictures/30N6E_5N63S_Flap_Lid_B_tracking_and_missile_guidance_radar_S-300PMU1_SA-10_Grumble_Russia_Russian_army_001.jpg

    '...The 5N63 was a huge generational leap in technology from the...Square Pair mechanically steered and scanned engagement radars on preceding V-PVO SAMs.

    With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the... phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft's warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam...'
     
    The 5N63 and its successors are fully mobile for five minute shoot and scoot...its mobile command post has the capability to control S200 batteries...

    This radar or even the newest version 92N2E Grave Stone used on the S400 would be a formidable pairing with the mighty S200 rocket...

    Clearly something is going on with Syrian air defenses...there is no question that they beat back a very strong Israeli assault...and inflicted what amounts to unacceptable damage for a single operation of this size...

    It is also worth noting that the human element is even more important than the hardware...always has...always will be...

    '...RULE 1: Weapons are not the most important ingredient in winning wars.
    People come first; ideas are second and hardware is only third...'
     
    ---Pierre Sprey...designer of the A10 and F16...[page 101...]

    '...After 1973’s crushing 80-to-1 victory by Israelis flying F-4s and Mirages against Arab pilots flying MiGs, the commander of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), Gen. Mordecai Hod, famously remarked that the outcome would have been the same if both sides had swapped planes.

    He was exactly correct, simply because the IAF had the most rigorous system in the world for filtering out all but the most gifted pilots. In every war, it’s the few superb pilots that win the air battle.

    A tiny handful of such pilots have dominated every air-to-air battleground since World War I: roughly 10 percent of all pilots (the “hawks”) score 60 percent to 80 percent of the dogfight kills; the other 90 percent of pilots (“doves”) are the fodder for the hawks of the opposing side. Technical performance differences between opposing fighter planes pale in comparison...'
     

    '...Submarine warfare is strikingly similar: the best 10 percent of the skippers account for the majority of the tonnage sunk...'
     
    Sprey could have added SAM crews to that list...

    The 250'th Air Defense Missile Brigade...headed by Colonel Zoltan Dani...scored all three Serb kills in the Nato air war against Yugoslavia...

    This unit took out not only a 'stealth' F117 Nighthawk flown by Lt. Colonel Dale Zelko...but heavily damaged another F117 that staggered back to Aviano but never flew again...and also downed the F16 of then Lt. Colonel David Goldfein...now General Goldfein and USAF Chief of Staff...


    Here is Zelko's canopy in the Belgrade Aviation Museum...


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/F-117_canopy.jpg


    And here is the Goldfein trophy...at same location...


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/F-16_tail.jpg


    So for all the hoopla about the Russians needing to quickly sell S300s and S400s to Syria...there is much more to consider...the Serbs did just fine with completely ancient equipment...one brigade was a 'hawk'...

    Judging by the beating the Syrian air defenses laid on the Israeli raiders...it is almost certain that the specific issues of equipment upgrades...and more important...crew training has made some major leaps and bounds...

    Wow FB, that’s quite an analysis. Your reasoning makes sense, but I am left with 1 question: why has it taken the Syrians 35 years to down their 1st Israel fighter jet? If, like you say, people and ideas come 1st and 2nd respectively and can do a lot with even outdated equipment like the Serbs did, then why only now in the case of Syria? Surely the Syrians are not any less capable than the Serbs, esp. having had the Russians on their soil for much longer than this war.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FB
    Couple of reasons...

    First...the Israeli pilots are some of the best around...as Sprey mentioned in that snippet I quoted...

    They are a tough adversary...they train all the time against missions like this...they have had opportunity to train against earlier S300 SAMs...since Greece [a Nato member] has had the s300 for 20 years [obviously a earlier generation not fully representative of current gear]...as do some other countries like India which cooperate with Israel...[Indian pilots are said to be very tough also...and they fly the latest Russian equipment like the big Flankers...]

    Second...the Syrian air defenses are just now coming back to life...at the beginning of the war when Syria was losing...they actually a lost a lot of AD equipment and personnel...

    Even before the war...the Syrians were not known as either great pilots or air defense crews...

    The Serbs were on a different level than the Syrians...they battled all of Nato to a draw for 78 days against a 1,000 plane armada...

    '...Serbian combat power remained substantially intact. The number of sorties generated by the NATO forces, particularly the United States Air Force, left them short of spare parts and munitions, required increased maintenance, and a force reduced in effective size due to the decreased fatigue life of many aircraft.

    This virtual attrition, with little relative destruction of the opposing forces, has shown that the Serbian military strategy was successful...'
     
    I have talked at length about the Serb air war as well as military pilot training in other comments...

    The Syrians are now presumably getting top notch training from the Russians...we note that Israel has not tried to attempt another raid into Syrian airspace since that spanking...their so-called retaliatory strike after the F16 downing was careful not to stray very deep into Syrian airspace...if at all...

    My point about the hardware was that those old Soviet systems were and still are very capable in the right hands...

    The rockets [missiles] have kinematic performance...ie speed and agility...that are generally speaking a match for what you get today in the S300/400...

    The big improvement has been in radars...but like I pointed out those new radars can control the older rockets...

    Another point worth noting is that the S200 rockets, while formidable, are launched from stationary emplacements...however it should be noted that attacks on air defenses target the radio emitters...ie the radars...not the launchers which give off no signal to home in on...and usually those launch sites are very well camouflaged...

    Those new radars from the S300/400 generation that can control the S200 rockets are fully shoot and scoot mobile...so the SAM survivability is greatly increased in the face of enemy SEAD [suppression of enemy air defense...]

    We recall that Israel was making big noises about taking out all of Syria's air defenses...and look what happened when they tried...

    Long story short Syria was a patsy for the tough Israeli Air Force for a long time...both before and after the war...but clearly this is now changing...

    You can be sure that in military circles in Tel Aviv, Washington and other Nato capitals...there is much consternation going on right now about what happened in the skies over Syria last week...
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  56. FB says:
    @Paranam Kid
    Wow FB, that's quite an analysis. Your reasoning makes sense, but I am left with 1 question: why has it taken the Syrians 35 years to down their 1st Israel fighter jet? If, like you say, people and ideas come 1st and 2nd respectively and can do a lot with even outdated equipment like the Serbs did, then why only now in the case of Syria? Surely the Syrians are not any less capable than the Serbs, esp. having had the Russians on their soil for much longer than this war.

    Couple of reasons…

    First…the Israeli pilots are some of the best around…as Sprey mentioned in that snippet I quoted…

    They are a tough adversary…they train all the time against missions like this…they have had opportunity to train against earlier S300 SAMs…since Greece [a Nato member] has had the s300 for 20 years [obviously a earlier generation not fully representative of current gear]…as do some other countries like India which cooperate with Israel…[Indian pilots are said to be very tough also...and they fly the latest Russian equipment like the big Flankers...]

    Second…the Syrian air defenses are just now coming back to life…at the beginning of the war when Syria was losing…they actually a lost a lot of AD equipment and personnel…

    Even before the war…the Syrians were not known as either great pilots or air defense crews…

    The Serbs were on a different level than the Syrians…they battled all of Nato to a draw for 78 days against a 1,000 plane armada…

    ‘…Serbian combat power remained substantially intact. The number of sorties generated by the NATO forces, particularly the United States Air Force, left them short of spare parts and munitions, required increased maintenance, and a force reduced in effective size due to the decreased fatigue life of many aircraft.

    This virtual attrition, with little relative destruction of the opposing forces, has shown that the Serbian military strategy was successful…’

    I have talked at length about the Serb air war as well as military pilot training in other comments…

    The Syrians are now presumably getting top notch training from the Russians…we note that Israel has not tried to attempt another raid into Syrian airspace since that spanking…their so-called retaliatory strike after the F16 downing was careful not to stray very deep into Syrian airspace…if at all…

    My point about the hardware was that those old Soviet systems were and still are very capable in the right hands…

    The rockets [missiles] have kinematic performance…ie speed and agility…that are generally speaking a match for what you get today in the S300/400…

    The big improvement has been in radars…but like I pointed out those new radars can control the older rockets…

    Another point worth noting is that the S200 rockets, while formidable, are launched from stationary emplacements…however it should be noted that attacks on air defenses target the radio emitters…ie the radars…not the launchers which give off no signal to home in on…and usually those launch sites are very well camouflaged…

    Those new radars from the S300/400 generation that can control the S200 rockets are fully shoot and scoot mobile…so the SAM survivability is greatly increased in the face of enemy SEAD [suppression of enemy air defense...]

    We recall that Israel was making big noises about taking out all of Syria’s air defenses…and look what happened when they tried…

    Long story short Syria was a patsy for the tough Israeli Air Force for a long time…both before and after the war…but clearly this is now changing…

    You can be sure that in military circles in Tel Aviv, Washington and other Nato capitals…there is much consternation going on right now about what happened in the skies over Syria last week…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kotlin
    It seems that you have a great knowledge on air defense. I really enjoyed reading your comments. I am wondering what you think about the future war that is coming: what will be the outcome of a military( especially air) conflict between Iran and the US? From what I read Iran's airplanes are obsolete and they only have very few S-300.
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  57. FB says:
    @yurivku

    It is a bit more complicated, OK–it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that “localization” of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:
     
    Well, it is complicated. And I said - "should at least supply ". There is also an option to hit ourself with S-400 ... those aircrafts which are present in Syria illegally and which are bombing our ally.

    Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing–both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded.
     
    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
    Otherwise not a single Israelis jet was grounded, but many of those.
    What about S-200, I was taught of their structure when was studying in Baumanka (Moscow High Technical School named after Bauman) and in 1982-1984 I was called to Soviet Army and serving as an officer in S-200 selfchecking division. It was top secret this time, but now it's obsolet. It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effecive reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I beleive it's not very effective.
    So why not to supply S-300 and new BUK M3 and Pantsir ?
    It's lack of political will, I think.

    Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no–is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.
     
    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late. ZUS getting more and more insane and can limit our options to just one - full scale war with using ALL types of weapons.

    Here’s what you said about the S200…

    ‘…It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effective reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I believe it’s not very effective…’

    Everything you said is wrong…

    Somehow you missed my #48…

    I already mentioned the S200 exceptional range…300 km…and kinematic performance [2500 meter per second]…faster than any of the S400 missiles…and more range than anything but the biggest 40N6 S400 missile which was introduced only in 2015…

    The S200 was a remarkable technological achievement for the time and it stayed in service with Soviet and Russian PVO [air defense] until the 1990s…

    The semi-active seeker in the nose of the missile [not fully active as you state] was a huge advance over the previous generations S75 and S125 SAMs which had no on-board seeker and used command-link guidance from the ground radar [battery engagement radar]…

    This type of seeker is still used in the most recent generation of SAM missiles…so your comments about not working against aircraft with reduced radar cross section are quite silly…

    Here is what the S200 seeker looks like…

    The seeker radar also used what was then a breakthrough technique called continuous wave frequency modulation [CWFM]…instead of pulsed waves…this required sophisticated computing power for that era…

    CWFM is also much more difficult to interfere with and therefore more resistant to electronic countermeasures…this radar technology is still in use in the newest generation systems…but was unique to the S200 at that era…

    With the on-board radar seeker…the chance of hitting the target is greatly increased…that’s a fact…

    The reason is that the seeker sends target location signals back to the ground-based engagement radar via downlink transmitter…

    This type of system is called track via missile…or TVM…

    ‘…The TVM system relays to the ground station radar data produced by the missile seeker, and offers better jam resistance and accuracy against a pure command link guidance package, especially as the missile nears the target…’

    That’s why TVM is universally used today…clearly you have no idea what you are talking about…

    As I already mentioned…the S200 batteries can be controlled by the newer phased array radars from the S300/400…

    The S200 also carried on board a sophisticated three-axis inertial autopilot…another technology milestone for that era…the 5A43 autopilot is employed to fly the missile along a programmed flight profile without the characteristic energy wasting deviations typical of the earlier S-75 and S-125 designs…

    As for the liquid fuel engine…this actually has some significant advantages…

    The Isayev 5D67 engine is a fantastic engine in the Russian tradition from legendary designer A.M. Isayev…

    It could be throttled from 30 percent to 100 percent power…something that’s impossible with solid rocket motors…which are basically just a big firecracker…ie the casing is stuffed with solid propellant and once it starts to burn there is no way to control it…the hot gas exits the nozzle out the bottom and that’s it…

    For an interceptor missile the ability to throttle is important…a target aircraft will try to evade a pursuing missile by out-turning it…

    The aircraft can bleed off energy in the turn and tighten its turn increasingly until the missile is no longer able to keep up such a tight turn…

    Turning radius increase with speed…so if your missile can slow down by throttling down the engine…you decrease the turn radius and that target airplane cannot get away from you…

    It is too bad that contemporary interceptor missile design has switched completely to solid rockets…the only real advantage being ease of use…they are basically foolproof…

    But a liquid rocket will always have a performance advantage…ie a higher specific impulse…

    Look at the speeds of some interceptors…the S200 reaches 2.5 km/s…S400 only 2 km/s…the SM3 Block 1A/B reaches 3 km/s mainly because it carries no warhead…ie it is hit to kill interceptor…

    The S200 carries a 217 kg warhead…that’s nearly 500 lb…without that warhead the S200 would reach nearly 4 km/s…[I would have to work out the exact math...]

    Any way you look at it the S200 was a fantastic achievement for its time…especially the rocket…which in my view is still as good as anything out there today…

    By networking these S200 batteries with the latest Russian radars…which are total beasts…those Syrian S200s are very potent weapons indeed…especially in the right hands…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger
    This is awesome information! Thank you!
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  58. @yurivku

    It is a bit more complicated, OK–it is much more complicated than this. What most people miss here is the fact that “localization” of Syrian AD is already in progress. What is known for sure at this stage, February 2018:
     
    Well, it is complicated. And I said - "should at least supply ". There is also an option to hit ourself with S-400 ... those aircrafts which are present in Syria illegally and which are bombing our ally.

    Now comes the question like this: what happens when this whole AD thing lights up as a Christmas Tree with all of its EW and radar capability? Well, I can say only one thing–both Israeli AF and USAF assets will be grounded.
     
    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
    Otherwise not a single Israelis jet was grounded, but many of those.
    What about S-200, I was taught of their structure when was studying in Baumanka (Moscow High Technical School named after Bauman) and in 1982-1984 I was called to Soviet Army and serving as an officer in S-200 selfchecking division. It was top secret this time, but now it's obsolet. It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effecive reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I beleive it's not very effective.
    So why not to supply S-300 and new BUK M3 and Pantsir ?
    It's lack of political will, I think.

    Is it a time to do it today? NO. Why no–is a separate issue, wars are not fought by the grand gestures, they are fought for political objectives and political objective now is more than just Syria, however important, for Russia.
     
    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late. ZUS getting more and more insane and can limit our options to just one - full scale war with using ALL types of weapons.

    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.

    1.SAA has a significant number of Pantsir-S1.
    2. Buk, especially BukM1 and especially M2 are NOT obsolete–these are thoroughly modern systems but what you meant was probably Kub systems, which SAA also does have–those are obsolete.

    https://southfront.org/syrian-air-defense-forces-buk-surface-to-air-missile-system-photo/

    3. S-200 is an old and obsolete complex yet, it did a job of shooting down IAF F-16, as did old Soviet S-125 which downed F-117 in Yougoslavia.

    4. REAL, which is now confirmed, integration of Syrian AD into Russian AD makes, considering the most difficult part of ANY air-defense operation–tracking, targeting, lock-on, firing solution, much-much easier.

    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late.

    Wars are not fought like this. Otherwise Red Army wouldn’t win at Stalingrad and Kursk. Grandiose gestures and instant gratification from “giving them hell”–is not a viable strategy. In fact, it is a road to defeat.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    Emotionally, Andrei , I am with Yuri, but if emotions removed I have to agree with you. However, I do think it is important not to overplay patience thing. Timing of well placed punch is also important and I do wonder is there will be will to act when time is right.
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  59. @The Cleaner
    How does the US supply the troops in northeast Syria?

    Through Iraq or Jordan. By land or air.

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  60. polskijoe says:
    @Ma Laoshi
    All nicely argued, but are these even new developments. The impunity for US/IL air assets over Syria has been a huge problem for Russia's stated goals there for two years already, and giving Syrians the tools to defend their own airspace has always been an obvious remedy. That this has not happened would suggest that the Kremlin doesn't *want* to do this--that for some reason, they are willing accomplices to the partition of Syria. Someone once opened my eyes by saying "When Putin and Lavrov are talking about their American partners, we should take them at their word."

    You may be right (who knows).

    Syria used to be controlled by France/UK wasnt it? (dont know much about it).
    Both France and UK are still mini imperialist minded. But generally the US is the king of that.

    Perhaps Syria will split into three?
    a)Israel-US
    b)Turkey
    c)Syria-Russia-Iran?

    that would effectlively be a win for Greater Israel. If Putin is agreeing with this that would be sad.
    the Brits/US want Iran too. Israel wants to destroy Iran.
    throw in Lebanon, Jordan, and plans move forward.

    Atm a heavily conventional strike on Israel would destroy it.
    But give them much more land, and they move to become a power.

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  61. polskijoe says:
    @Felix Keverich
    Soviet Union was voluntarily abolished by its own leaders and people, who were both convinced at the time that the West was their friend. I know it sounds crazy when I put it this way, but that's exactly what happened!

    It was a stupid, left-wing system that died because it was left-wing and stupid, not because it was too assertive on the international stage.

    I agree, the largest reason the SU fell was because of certain leaders inside the SU who want it.
    They thought the West would be friends.

    The game was called “convergence”. The same thing Lenin and Trotsky wanted.
    West and Russia join into one. However, Lenin and Trotsky were opposed by Anglo Tory imperialists.
    but supported by Fabian Socialists, and Jewish capitalists.

    Stalin prevented this. And he was the reason the Cold War started. He rejected the Baruch Plan.

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.

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    • Replies: @El Dato

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.
     
    On the contrary, it was pretty bad. Control economy does that to you, it considers everything as an exercise in military planning.

    Empty stores, scant infrastructure, shit quality, things that will be delivered "next year", and most of the exchange going underground while nobody believes what's coming out of the ministries.

    Then you end with grandiose bullshit projects. And disasters like Chernobyl (where radioactive foodstuff is not taken off the marked but "mixed for dilution" in the rest)
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  62. Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians)… Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option.

    Lies! Russophobic propaganda! We (that is, Martyanov) know thatmost likely, there were no real Russian casualties.

    So when is Martyanov going to call out The Saker for being “an ignorant amateur” who “doubles down on his pseudo-military BS and continued to push his agenda which is Russophobic“?

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    • Replies: @El Dato
    There is no need to for drama mode.

    I don't see "Russophobic" - unless Russians can't die?
    , @Anonymous
    Yeah, like he is an actual Russophobe.

    Sounds like you are just mad he calls out Zionists.
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  63. @Simpleguest
    That's exactly what the West would like you to do.

    Here is a hint why: Soviet Union was feared, Soviet Union was respected, Soviet Union always retaliated in kind, no one was messing with Soviet Union.
    Where is Soviet Union now?

    Please, think about it.

    Soviet union is not around for different reason directly opposite to what you just wrote. Soviet elites sold put own country and people and gave USA everything for nothing.

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  64. @Felix Keverich
    Soviet Union was voluntarily abolished by its own leaders and people, who were both convinced at the time that the West was their friend. I know it sounds crazy when I put it this way, but that's exactly what happened!

    It was a stupid, left-wing system that died because it was left-wing and stupid, not because it was too assertive on the international stage.

    Do not tell we Soviet people. Majority was against it. It is your personal opinion. I was against it and so was everybody I knew personally. Elites indeed sold us. But they were barking upon wrong tree, the tree that already passed its prime and was dying. We are seeing the process right now of this system death. Our resources bought them some 15-20 years but all good things come to end. They were living on debt already in i0s and now they sold future of grandkids too. If you believe this is not stupid crazy system I seriously doubt your intelligence.

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    • Replies: @plonialmoni
    I seriously doubt the intelligence of people who say "I seriously doubt your intelligence."
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  65. El Dato says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians)... Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option.
     
    Lies! Russophobic propaganda! We (that is, Martyanov) know that "most likely, there were no real Russian casualties."

    So when is Martyanov going to call out The Saker for being "an ignorant amateur" who "doubles down on his pseudo-military BS and continued to push his agenda which is Russophobic"?

    There is no need to for drama mode.

    I don’t see “Russophobic” – unless Russians can’t die?

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  66. El Dato says:
    @polskijoe
    I agree, the largest reason the SU fell was because of certain leaders inside the SU who want it.
    They thought the West would be friends.

    The game was called "convergence". The same thing Lenin and Trotsky wanted.
    West and Russia join into one. However, Lenin and Trotsky were opposed by Anglo Tory imperialists.
    but supported by Fabian Socialists, and Jewish capitalists.

    Stalin prevented this. And he was the reason the Cold War started. He rejected the Baruch Plan.

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.

    On the contrary, it was pretty bad. Control economy does that to you, it considers everything as an exercise in military planning.

    Empty stores, scant infrastructure, shit quality, things that will be delivered “next year”, and most of the exchange going underground while nobody believes what’s coming out of the ministries.

    Then you end with grandiose bullshit projects. And disasters like Chernobyl (where radioactive foodstuff is not taken off the marked but “mixed for dilution” in the rest)

    Read More
    • Replies: @FB
    It's rare to see so much bullshit packed into one post...

    Everything you just said about the Soviet Union is pure VOA propaganda crap...

    And since it is a certainty that you have never been to the USSR yourself...I can only imagine what a fool it takes to pop off about something he has never even seen...

    , @Sergey Krieger
    You would do a great favor by talking about things you know instead of spreading stale second hand BS.
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  67. @Andrei Martyanov

    Just dreams. I think all the SAA has is S-200 old complex and probably some obsolete BUKs.
     
    1.SAA has a significant number of Pantsir-S1.
    2. Buk, especially BukM1 and especially M2 are NOT obsolete--these are thoroughly modern systems but what you meant was probably Kub systems, which SAA also does have--those are obsolete.

    https://southfront.org/syrian-air-defense-forces-buk-surface-to-air-missile-system-photo/

    3. S-200 is an old and obsolete complex yet, it did a job of shooting down IAF F-16, as did old Soviet S-125 which downed F-117 in Yougoslavia.

    4. REAL, which is now confirmed, integration of Syrian AD into Russian AD makes, considering the most difficult part of ANY air-defense operation--tracking, targeting, lock-on, firing solution, much-much easier.

    But I think YES. Moreover it should be done ASAP until too late.
     
    Wars are not fought like this. Otherwise Red Army wouldn't win at Stalingrad and Kursk. Grandiose gestures and instant gratification from "giving them hell"--is not a viable strategy. In fact, it is a road to defeat.

    Emotionally, Andrei , I am with Yuri, but if emotions removed I have to agree with you. However, I do think it is important not to overplay patience thing. Timing of well placed punch is also important and I do wonder is there will be will to act when time is right.

    Read More
    • Replies: @yurivku
    Well, Andrei did not convince me. All his arguments are well known it's still Putin's ( and Sun Tzu -) ) clever plan of war. I'm sure that it's time to put the end of this creeping attack which US, having no resistance are committing, going more and more close to the point of no return.

    But because we (me and Andrei) already thrown all our cards on the desktop - I have no reason to repeat. Now the future will show everything and I don't think we'll have to wait long ...

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  68. paullll says:

    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe – to be completely fair – plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before – always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria’s sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you’d think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RobinG
    Wow. This is brilliantly written. I hope you are wrong, but I can't argue with your reasoning.
    , @FB
    I'm guessing this is the mushroom trip take on Syria...?
    , @utu

    Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up.
     
    Very true.
    , @Seamus Padraig
    Even though I'm biased in Putin's favor and would like to think more highly of him than this, I must confess I've had the same thought myself.
    , @skrik

    The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared
     
    With all due respect, I think this is hubris, and rather gives you away as a US/Z propagandist. A little bit of 'evidence' is that Syria, with Russian assistance, just brought down one of the IDF's 'finest' warplanes while reputedly damaging a 2nd, and apart from the immediate blind-rage response, the IDF warplanes seem to be parking rather than flying, at least not in Syria's direction. Another little bit of 'evidence' is that no person of compassion could write what you have done here, without collapsing from guilt, despair and/or other more 'normal' reaction.
    , @Rurik

    Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.
     
    You're trying to equate Iran and Russia (acting in good faith at the behest of Syria, and in full compliance with all International Laws)

    vs.

    The rogue regimes (the Fiend) acting (as usual) in violation of all known precepts of International Law (not to mention all notions of simply decency and honor).

    The ZUS and Israel and Turkey (and Saudi Arabia and others) are illegitimate actors in the region. They are in violation of International Law, which Russia is *defending*, not violating.

    To equate Russia in Syria with the known criminal ZUS/Israeli regime, is like equating a man (Putin) who has come to the defense of a person being raped (Assad), and beaten the rapist (Bibi) away, and while consoling her and giving her his overcoat and offering her a ride home or to a hospital, you would shout that he's as bad as the rapist, because he too is now in her (Syria's) company!

    One is a violator and criminal, and the other is a welcomed savior and benefactor. If the rape victim eventually asks her savior in for a cup of coffee, his behavior if he accepts, is not the same as the rapist. There is a very significant difference that apparently escapes you.

    he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce
     
    you're equating diplomacy and statecraft vs. unilateral belligerence- with treachery

    Pretending that Putin could have demanded an unilateral end to the conflict by a sheer use of force, is asinine. It ignores that the ZUS has been salivating for any pretext at all to accuse Putin's Russia of aggression. It ignores Turkey and Saudi Arabia and Israel. Putin has danced a diplomatic razor's edge, with careful use of force vs. restraint which characterizes his unique statesman-like genius.

    We all know how eager the ZUS congress was and is to slobber all over Bibi's private parts. Especially when Obama/Hillary was in the White House. And bomb any and all nations into the stone age at the drop of a hat, if it would mean the Jewish lobby in the ZUS would grant them another term.

    We all know that Putin went along with the Fiend's serial destruction of nation after nation.. but then Syria was just a bridge too far for Putin, and yes, it may have had something to do with Russia's national interests; International Law being one of them. Or it may have had to do with Putin being the only adult left on the world's stage who still had the wherewithal to thwart the slathering beast's drooling reign of death and destruction over a beleaguered planet.

    Based on your metric, the destabilization of Ukraine is also partly Russia's fault, (since they've been reluctantly dragged into that as well), but we all know that to be absurd.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.
     
    there is some truth to this, as Bibi is increasingly being forced to confront Putin. Since the goal all along has been Israel's design to see Syria destabilized and dismembered so that she could steal the Golan Heights, and also to get the ZUS to destroy Iran for it.

    Turkey and Saudi and others are simply the jackals and vultures who figured they'd too get to peck at Syria's bones, since the beast was off the leash, and there'd be plenty of morsels of a murdered Syria to scavenge from.

    The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.
     
    this is contradictory

    Russia has all but secured Syria's sovereignty. The reason the ZUS is still there, is presumably to guarantee that Israel can steal the Golan, and also to act as a bulwark against Iran's ascendancy in Syria, Lebanon. Eventually it will come down to the Golan Heights. Either Israel can steal it, or not.

    The 'Kurdish state', the ongoing strife between Saudi and Iran, the coquettish Erdogan, making eyes at Russia and the ZUS alternatively, are all just proxies and remoras, opportunistically dining on the scraps as the Fiend wages its vicious campaign for unilateral domination of the planet, with the few heroic nations (Russia most of all) willing to oppose it, to retain some semblance of International Law, and order.

    The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine?
     
    No, the "Hegemon: (Fiend) stands a little more slumped each day. Bibi is looking more and more like a ridiculous cretin on the world's stage, erroneously and foolishly calling the Golan Heights 'Israeli airspace'.

    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/WATCH-LIVE-Netanyahu-addresses-Munich-Security-Conference-542917

    He's becoming a joke, and being increasingly mocked on the world's stage.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/polish-pm-rebuked-for-holocaust-remark/ar-BBJgyaS

    As Hillary is laughed off into her obscurity, and Tillerson's words are like so much chaff in the wind, it is Russia (and Iran and Syria and all people of good will) and the world community that stand a little taller every day. And the great zio-whore, who has been menacing the people of the planet, and raining down horrors upon horrors, is beginning to reap what it has sowed for generations now.

    Let's hope Israel sends in a few dozen more fighters into Syria, and sees them all get shot out of the sky.

    I suspect that even the bullied and bribed men and women of the ZUS congress would quietly try to hide their smiles. As most of the rest of the planet would cheer to the heavens at the wonderful news!
    , @Whorin Piece
    Way to go dude.!

    Let's see your King of the South do his shit...hey. Its Daniel 8 boy. You have set up your tents between the holy mountain and the sea. Come on big fella its time to lift your dukes up. Drag your sorry carcass to block.
    , @wayfarer
    A banquet table, or a poker table where winner takes all.

    One can't forget that wildcard, China.

    source: https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/News/2017/11/29/China-to-deploy-Night-Tigers-to-Syria

    https://daveblog32.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/1366318976_rolling-dice.jpg

    ...
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  69. FB says:
    @El Dato

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.
     
    On the contrary, it was pretty bad. Control economy does that to you, it considers everything as an exercise in military planning.

    Empty stores, scant infrastructure, shit quality, things that will be delivered "next year", and most of the exchange going underground while nobody believes what's coming out of the ministries.

    Then you end with grandiose bullshit projects. And disasters like Chernobyl (where radioactive foodstuff is not taken off the marked but "mixed for dilution" in the rest)

    It’s rare to see so much bullshit packed into one post…

    Everything you just said about the Soviet Union is pure VOA propaganda crap…

    And since it is a certainty that you have never been to the USSR yourself…I can only imagine what a fool it takes to pop off about something he has never even seen…

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  70. @El Dato

    I think SU economy was actually not so bad (inside the USSR, not satelites),
    but a little too much spending on military.
     
    On the contrary, it was pretty bad. Control economy does that to you, it considers everything as an exercise in military planning.

    Empty stores, scant infrastructure, shit quality, things that will be delivered "next year", and most of the exchange going underground while nobody believes what's coming out of the ministries.

    Then you end with grandiose bullshit projects. And disasters like Chernobyl (where radioactive foodstuff is not taken off the marked but "mixed for dilution" in the rest)

    You would do a great favor by talking about things you know instead of spreading stale second hand BS.

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    • Agree: FB
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  71. RobinG says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Wow. This is brilliantly written. I hope you are wrong, but I can’t argue with your reasoning.

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    • LOL: FB
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  72. FB says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    I’m guessing this is the mushroom trip take on Syria…?

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  73. FB says:

    More information trickling in on that IAF F16 downing…

    From Alex Fishman, Israeli defense correspondent, in the Yediot Ahoronot newspaper…

    ‘…One of the [Israeli] planes was hit by the two barrages of 27 Syrian surface-to-air missiles… which is a huge achievement for the Syrian army, and embarrassing for the IAF, since the electronic warfare systems that envelope the plane were supposed to have provided protection from a barrage of missiles…

    The IAF is going to have to conduct an in-depth technical-intelligence inquiry to determine: are the Syrians in possession of systems that are capable of bypassing the Israeli warning and jamming systems?

    Have the Syrians developed a new technique that the IAF is unaware of?

    It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out…’

    That English translation from the Hebrew by former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in an interesting article today…

    I had mentioned in my #48…about the phased array S300/400 engagement radar…

    ‘…With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’

    We know from Russian MoD pronouncements that these advanced Russian radars are integrated into the Syrian air defense system…and I had already given some technical info on how these radars are designed to control legacy S200 batteries…

    Also we note that there were two barrages…targeting only two aircraft…out of a total of eight…

    ‘…On Monday, the Yedioth Ahronoth daily also reported that another fighter jet was also targeted by the Syrian anti-aircraft missiles in the same barrage but managed to escape…’

    This second plane may have been that F15 that was reportedly hit but managed an emergency landing…that snippet from a Times of Israel article here…

    So we can see from this info that only two planes were actually targeted [although each with a substantial barrage]…resulting in one shot down…and another reportedly hit but not brought down…

    Not a bad result at all…

    We also note the perplexity about why no [or little] warning from the plane’s radar warning receiver [RWR]…

    Well…this is how SAM designers earn their paycheck…the Russians have been perfecting their S300/400 SAMs…especially the crucial radars for several decades now…

    That Times of Israel article notes…

    ‘…Israel hasn’t had true air superiority in the region since late 2015, when Russia decided to install an S-400 missile defense battery in Syria powerful enough to track the vast majority of Israeli airspace.

    Since then, Israel has effectively been operating in Syria by the grace of Moscow…

    “A fly can’t buzz above Syria without Russian consent nowadays,” an Israeli defense official told the International Crisis Group think tank after the S-400 was installed…’

    The Israelis were cautioned repeatedly by Putin himself to cut it out with the aerial harrassment on Syria…but they didn’t listen…the Syrians themselves fired off a couple of warning shots in recent months…but the Israelis still didn’t listen…

    Now the Syrians…piggybacking on the massive Russian radars to which their S200s are connected…decided to take an actual shot at two airplanes…here is the result…

    Also that F16 was brought down in Israeli airspace…and it does not seem clear whether any of those IAF aircraft actually entered Syrian airspace at any time…we note the comment about the plane’s high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range…

    If they had raided into Syrian territory…they would have flown low to evade radar…

    Of course the IAF mouthpieces are talking tough in public…but I would bet dollars to donuts that they are singing a far different tune behind closed doors…

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {‘…With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’}

    OK. Makes sense, for the search radar

    But the final homing of the S-200 missile is done by the on-board radar, correct?
    And that one is pretty old radar, unless that was upgrade too.
    If it was old radar, why was it not detected by the F-16?
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  74. FB says:

    Just a further note about the significance of bringing down that plane in Israeli airspace…

    This illustrates the long reach of the Syrian SAMs…this seems to be a case of the usual Israeli tactic of lobbing missiles into Syria from outside Syrian airspace…

    To bring down a plane at that distance is actually quite a feat…we recall the warning issued by General Igor Konashenkov some months ago during a flare-up with the US that they would be ‘surprised’ at the reach of the Russian SAMs…if they were ever fired in anger…

    Clearly Konashenkov wasn’t bluffing…

    Read More
    • Replies: @skrik

    Just a further note about the significance of bringing down that plane in Israeli airspace
     
    Err - surely the entire action, from AA-launch to 'hit' *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the 'simple' reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions? Like, say, great swarms of IDF ['D' = offence] tanks pouring out through the Fulda - err, Golan Gap?

    The way I would see it is a) the IDF warplanes' incursion into Syria, b) their firing of attack-rockets, c) the IDF warplanes turning to return 'home' THEN d) getting hit from behind without notice, but being pointed in the return direction ejecting, allowing the crash to take place outside Syria.

    Not so BTW, many thanks for your detailed, helpful explications. rgds

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  75. utu says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up.

    Very true.

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  76. Biff says:
    @Vidi

    The US doesn’t need to control the places it regime changes to achieve its goals – reducing them to bloody chaos is perfectly sufficient for the purposes of those influencing US policy. The example you are asking for was given in my comment to which you were replying – Libya.
     
    The U.S. needs to profit from its military excursions, which means controlling the places it invades. (And stealing them blind, the usual modus operandum of an empire.) An unprofitable military will bankrupt the country.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.

    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.

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    • Agree: utu, RobinG, renfro
    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    Exactly.
    , @Vidi

    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.
     
    That's what Israel wants: to sucker the U.S. into doing the "expensive dirty work". However, they are using up the U.S.; according to Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, the war in Iraq cost the U.S. over three trillion dollars. And that is just the one invasion. If America's suckered into the Middle East again (as Israel keeps trying to do), that will be the end of the Empire.
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  77. Yes! The right thing to do is to let Turkey do what it wants to do.
    In the mean time Iranian and Syrian forces should rearm and regroup with Russia’s help.

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  78. sarz says:

    This is a contest that Russia (and even China) cannot afford to lose. Neither can the AngloZionist empire. But it is a fight that Trump’s nation needs to ‘lose’. Just look up his campaign foreign policy manifesto. I have suggested, for some time, that this is a “fucking moron” game, and that Putin, Xi and Kim are in the know. So are the masters of the empire and their Neocon agents. That’s why no resource is being held back to bring Trump down. The Saker thinks the idea that Trump is throwing the game is simply ridiculous, but in tbe meantime his article on the possible names to be sanctioned mentioned this very possibility (among others), that in addition to doing no real damage it was an answer to Putin’s prayer of getting oligarch money back to tbe safety of Russia, and having tbis sort of attack on Putin will help his electoral margin. Trump seems to be playing a weak hand strongly, but of course there is the danger of setting off a major war.

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  79. @FB
    Here's what you said about the S200...

    '...It has range of 200km, could use nuk warhead, an active homing head and liquid-propellant engine.

    Active homing makes it difficult to use now when effective reflection square of aircrafts decreased significantly. And I believe it’s not very effective...'
     
    Everything you said is wrong...

    Somehow you missed my #48...

    I already mentioned the S200 exceptional range...300 km...and kinematic performance [2500 meter per second]...faster than any of the S400 missiles...and more range than anything but the biggest 40N6 S400 missile which was introduced only in 2015...

    The S200 was a remarkable technological achievement for the time and it stayed in service with Soviet and Russian PVO [air defense] until the 1990s...

    The semi-active seeker in the nose of the missile [not fully active as you state] was a huge advance over the previous generations S75 and S125 SAMs which had no on-board seeker and used command-link guidance from the ground radar [battery engagement radar]...

    This type of seeker is still used in the most recent generation of SAM missiles...so your comments about not working against aircraft with reduced radar cross section are quite silly...

    Here is what the S200 seeker looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/5G24-FMCW-SARH-Seeker-1S.jpg


    The seeker radar also used what was then a breakthrough technique called continuous wave frequency modulation [CWFM]...instead of pulsed waves...this required sophisticated computing power for that era...

    CWFM is also much more difficult to interfere with and therefore more resistant to electronic countermeasures...this radar technology is still in use in the newest generation systems...but was unique to the S200 at that era...

    With the on-board radar seeker...the chance of hitting the target is greatly increased...that's a fact...

    The reason is that the seeker sends target location signals back to the ground-based engagement radar via downlink transmitter...

    This type of system is called track via missile...or TVM...

    '...The TVM system relays to the ground station radar data produced by the missile seeker, and offers better jam resistance and accuracy against a pure command link guidance package, especially as the missile nears the target...'
     
    That's why TVM is universally used today...clearly you have no idea what you are talking about...

    As I already mentioned...the S200 batteries can be controlled by the newer phased array radars from the S300/400...

    The S200 also carried on board a sophisticated three-axis inertial autopilot...another technology milestone for that era...the 5A43 autopilot is employed to fly the missile along a programmed flight profile without the characteristic energy wasting deviations typical of the earlier S-75 and S-125 designs...

    As for the liquid fuel engine...this actually has some significant advantages...

    The Isayev 5D67 engine is a fantastic engine in the Russian tradition from legendary designer A.M. Isayev...

    It could be throttled from 30 percent to 100 percent power...something that's impossible with solid rocket motors...which are basically just a big firecracker...ie the casing is stuffed with solid propellant and once it starts to burn there is no way to control it...the hot gas exits the nozzle out the bottom and that's it...

    For an interceptor missile the ability to throttle is important...a target aircraft will try to evade a pursuing missile by out-turning it...

    The aircraft can bleed off energy in the turn and tighten its turn increasingly until the missile is no longer able to keep up such a tight turn...

    Turning radius increase with speed...so if your missile can slow down by throttling down the engine...you decrease the turn radius and that target airplane cannot get away from you...

    It is too bad that contemporary interceptor missile design has switched completely to solid rockets...the only real advantage being ease of use...they are basically foolproof...

    But a liquid rocket will always have a performance advantage...ie a higher specific impulse...

    Look at the speeds of some interceptors...the S200 reaches 2.5 km/s...S400 only 2 km/s...the SM3 Block 1A/B reaches 3 km/s mainly because it carries no warhead...ie it is hit to kill interceptor...

    The S200 carries a 217 kg warhead...that's nearly 500 lb...without that warhead the S200 would reach nearly 4 km/s...[I would have to work out the exact math...]

    Any way you look at it the S200 was a fantastic achievement for its time...especially the rocket...which in my view is still as good as anything out there today...

    By networking these S200 batteries with the latest Russian radars...which are total beasts...those Syrian S200s are very potent weapons indeed...especially in the right hands...

    This is awesome information! Thank you!

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  80. It’s going to be a Mexican showdown, when Russians arms the Syrians and Iranians and the Taliban in Afghanistan. This would be in direct retaliation to Amerikkkan arming of the Kiev thugs with lethal weapons. Let’s see if the Amerikkans and their Israeli thugs can stand pain as well. Putin has to, and will escalate. He wants to do it when he’s ready, just not when others expect to draw him in.

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  81. @Vidi

    Disasters? Everything went according to the plan. Not the plan you have read in the newspapers. The real plan.
     
    I doubt the "real plan" was to give Afghanistan back to the Taliban, and give Iran extra influence in Iraq and Syria, which is what is happening now, in spades.

    So you can stop fooling yourself, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya were all disasters. Expensive disasters, in both blood and treasure. More of these will bankrupt the Empire.

    You may think it'll be cheap to foment chaos. But that is so only at first, because conflicts have a habit of escalating. If the U.S. gets sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire, as Israel plainly wants, things will get very, very expensive -- and probably terminal for the Empire.

    But getting “sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire” and staying there permanently is Washington’s goal. As long as there are “terrorists” operating there, they have an excuse to stay. This strategy serves several purposes:

    A. It denies control of them to any other power, such as Russia or China.

    B. These territories can be used to destabilize other neighboring states, if necessary (think Pakistan, Iran or Central Asia.)

    C. It gives US special forces bases of operations for covert action or reconnaissance against those same neighboring states.

    And what if some clever country like Iran manages to gain influence over one of these states, as it did in Iraq? Well, in Washingtonland, that would constitute a Crisis!!! and an Iranian act of aggression!!! demanding a response. In short, they would then have a justification for–you guessed it!–yet another intervention in the ME.

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    • Replies: @Vidi

    But getting “sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire” and staying there permanently is Washington’s goal.
     
    No, it's the goal of the U.S. Zionists, who work mostly for Israel's benefit. Most Americans probably don't even know where Israel is, much less care. The U.S.'s fundamental interest is to not become an economic disaster, which is what it would be if it's suckered into the Middle East.
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  82. @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Even though I’m biased in Putin’s favor and would like to think more highly of him than this, I must confess I’ve had the same thought myself.

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  83. anon • Disclaimer says:

    Chub said that a russian ship will be targeted and radar installations as well.the signal for this will be the downing of a su fighter jet.march in march.for sure the stratergy of the enemy of my enemy is his friends friend that is developing in syria and lebanon in an effort to pressure israel is entering the realm of the unknown.

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  84. Miro23 says:
    @Felix Keverich
    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime's main (only) concern is self-preservation - I think most of us can see this now.

    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime’s main (only) concern is self-preservation – I think most of us can see this now.

    Following the “self-preservation” line, the different actors here have different interests:

    Putin – Along with his generals, Putin’s surely concerned about the orchestrated anti-Russia propaganda emanating from the US Deep State. He’s aware that the same kind of anti-Iraq propaganda proceeded the Iraq war, and now the US/Israel are again ratcheting up the tension in Syria. There are enormous risks in all this, so maybe Syria is a real life demonstration to the US that Russia has the technical capability to defend itself against a strike on Russia itself. Also, resistance to the US wins points in contested upcoming elections.

    Erdogan – Erdogan knows that Gulenist coup attempt was cooked up by the Israel/CIA Deep State. It was plain to see how US forces stationed at Incirlik (joint US/Turkish airbase) carefully looked the other way while Gulenist forces used the base as a headquarters to launch sorties against NATO ally Turkey’s legitimately elected government and legitimate president (Erdogan). So, Erdogan is no friend of the US Zioglob, and a strong response to the Kurds is also essential for his political survival, given years of insurgency in Eastern Turkey and the new CIA/Deep State idea of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq/Syria (Turkey? Iran?).

    Trump – Trump was elected on no more ME wars, and he was probably pushing the political limit with his cruise missile strike on a Syrian air base. If he supported full US engagement in a Syrian war it would probably be political suicide. On the other hand, he is increasingly being pushed by a rabid crowd of Zionist urgently requiring the US to knock out Syria, and then Iran, while they’re also setting up Russia (Russian hacking). So, a good question for Trump is whether his “self-preservation” lies with the US public or the Deep State.

    Israel – For Israel’s Likudniks, the US is an prime asset that needs to be exploited, and it’s the only way they can get to destroy Syria and Iran, which they want to happen ASAP. Russia is getting in the way so the US Zionist media demonizes Russia, and equally, US nationalist opposition is developing into a problem (wouldn’t have been under anointed candidate HRC) so the Deep State has to turn the screws on US dissidents and ramp up totalitarianism.

    US Public – “Self-preservation” here means refusing to accept confrontations with Syria, Iran, Turkey and Russia (and rather seeking improved relations with these countries) plus facing off the Deep State. Inevitably this means the Public as The Public (not their “representatives”) on the streets of American cities with a general and personal demonstration of their rejection of the ME wars and the Deep State – although its doubtful that they’re capable of it.

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    US Public – “Self-preservation” here means refusing to accept confrontations with Syria, Iran, Turkey and Russia (and rather seeking improved relations with these countries) plus facing off the Deep State. Inevitably this means the Public as The Public (not their “representatives”) on the streets of American cities with a general and personal demonstration of their rejection of the ME wars and the Deep State – although its doubtful that they’re capable of it.
     
    They will go to street in big number demand equality if WH prohibit a LBGT man from sharing washroom with their wife & daughters, or propose a sane bill to block illegal migrants. Their representing congress men will fight vehemently. But never for wars, no matter how many wars each of their Potus have waged with lies and millions of innocent slaughtered. As long nothing touch their personal life in safe heaven America, they don't give a damn.
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  85. skrik says:
    @FB
    Just a further note about the significance of bringing down that plane in Israeli airspace...

    This illustrates the long reach of the Syrian SAMs...this seems to be a case of the usual Israeli tactic of lobbing missiles into Syria from outside Syrian airspace...

    To bring down a plane at that distance is actually quite a feat...we recall the warning issued by General Igor Konashenkov some months ago during a flare-up with the US that they would be 'surprised' at the reach of the Russian SAMs...if they were ever fired in anger...

    Clearly Konashenkov wasn't bluffing...

    Just a further note about the significance of bringing down that plane in Israeli airspace

    Err – surely the entire action, from AA-launch to ‘hit’ *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the ‘simple’ reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions? Like, say, great swarms of IDF ['D' = offence] tanks pouring out through the Fulda – err, Golan Gap?

    The way I would see it is a) the IDF warplanes’ incursion into Syria, b) their firing of attack-rockets, c) the IDF warplanes turning to return ‘home’ THEN d) getting hit from behind without notice, but being pointed in the return direction ejecting, allowing the crash to take place outside Syria.

    Not so BTW, many thanks for your detailed, helpful explications. rgds

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    '...Err – surely the entire action, from AA-launch to ‘hit’ *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the ‘simple’ reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions?..'
     
    Not so...

    Here is some of the available information from the Israeli press...which I have already pointed to previously...

    '...The initial assessments of the event indicate that the plane was brought down while flying over Israel after a large volley of anti-aircraft missiles — at least five, but possibly more — were fired at it, Conricus said.

    The army said it was still investigating if the plane was brought down because it was operating at a high altitude to ensure its bombs were hitting their targets, which made it easier for Syrian air defenses to spot and fire at it, and failed to react quickly enough, as was reported in Israeli media outlets on Sunday...'
     
    I had said exactly that in my #74...

    '...we note the comment about the plane’s high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range…'
     
    Another report in a NYT op-ed piece by a well-known Israeli defense reporter...supports that scenario with additional detail...

    '...A minute and a half after the drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     
    By this account...the eight Israeli warplanes firing missiles into Syria happened 'simultaneously' with that drone being shot down...that means there was no time for a cross-border raid...

    So all indications are that Israel fired its missiles into Syria...as it has been doing for some time now...from outside of Syrian airspace...

    That still constitutes an act of war...and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace...
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  86. skrik says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared

    With all due respect, I think this is hubris, and rather gives you away as a US/Z propagandist. A little bit of ‘evidence’ is that Syria, with Russian assistance, just brought down one of the IDF’s ‘finest’ warplanes while reputedly damaging a 2nd, and apart from the immediate blind-rage response, the IDF warplanes seem to be parking rather than flying, at least not in Syria’s direction. Another little bit of ‘evidence’ is that no person of compassion could write what you have done here, without collapsing from guilt, despair and/or other more ‘normal’ reaction.

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  87. Avery says:
    @FB
    More information trickling in on that IAF F16 downing...

    From Alex Fishman, Israeli defense correspondent, in the Yediot Ahoronot newspaper...


    '...One of the [Israeli] planes was hit by the two barrages of 27 Syrian surface-to-air missiles… which is a huge achievement for the Syrian army, and embarrassing for the IAF, since the electronic warfare systems that envelope the plane were supposed to have provided protection from a barrage of missiles…

    The IAF is going to have to conduct an in-depth technical-intelligence inquiry to determine: are the Syrians in possession of systems that are capable of bypassing the Israeli warning and jamming systems?

    Have the Syrians developed a new technique that the IAF is unaware of?

    It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    That English translation from the Hebrew by former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in an interesting article today...

    I had mentioned in my #48...about the phased array S300/400 engagement radar...


    '...With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’
     
    We know from Russian MoD pronouncements that these advanced Russian radars are integrated into the Syrian air defense system...and I had already given some technical info on how these radars are designed to control legacy S200 batteries...

    Also we note that there were two barrages...targeting only two aircraft...out of a total of eight...


    '...On Monday, the Yedioth Ahronoth daily also reported that another fighter jet was also targeted by the Syrian anti-aircraft missiles in the same barrage but managed to escape...'
     
    This second plane may have been that F15 that was reportedly hit but managed an emergency landing...that snippet from a Times of Israel article here...

    So we can see from this info that only two planes were actually targeted [although each with a substantial barrage]...resulting in one shot down...and another reportedly hit but not brought down...

    Not a bad result at all...

    We also note the perplexity about why no [or little] warning from the plane's radar warning receiver [RWR]...

    Well...this is how SAM designers earn their paycheck...the Russians have been perfecting their S300/400 SAMs...especially the crucial radars for several decades now...

    That Times of Israel article notes...


    '...Israel hasn’t had true air superiority in the region since late 2015, when Russia decided to install an S-400 missile defense battery in Syria powerful enough to track the vast majority of Israeli airspace.

    Since then, Israel has effectively been operating in Syria by the grace of Moscow...

    “A fly can’t buzz above Syria without Russian consent nowadays,” an Israeli defense official told the International Crisis Group think tank after the S-400 was installed...'
     

    The Israelis were cautioned repeatedly by Putin himself to cut it out with the aerial harrassment on Syria...but they didn't listen...the Syrians themselves fired off a couple of warning shots in recent months...but the Israelis still didn't listen...

    Now the Syrians...piggybacking on the massive Russian radars to which their S200s are connected...decided to take an actual shot at two airplanes...here is the result...


    http://odiaspora.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Israeli-jet-shot3.jpg


    Also that F16 was brought down in Israeli airspace...and it does not seem clear whether any of those IAF aircraft actually entered Syrian airspace at any time...we note the comment about the plane's high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range...

    If they had raided into Syrian territory...they would have flown low to evade radar...

    Of course the IAF mouthpieces are talking tough in public...but I would bet dollars to donuts that they are singing a far different tune behind closed doors...

    {‘…With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’}

    OK. Makes sense, for the search radar

    But the final homing of the S-200 missile is done by the on-board radar, correct?
    And that one is pretty old radar, unless that was upgrade too.
    If it was old radar, why was it not detected by the F-16?

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    U.S. fighter aircraft may be capable of supersonic flying speeds of Mach 2.4, but hypersonic engines are now pushing ground-to-air missiles at Mach 6.0.

    I would imagine intercept equations, are primarily balanced by speed and distance, giving ground-to-air missiles a significant advantage over fighter aircraft, in most cases.

    source: http://www.news.com.au/technology/china-declares-success-of-hypervelocity-missile-program/news-story/f85c269edd0eb804ac6509486633cb4c

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  88. Joe Hide says:

    A better solution is easy. Just strongly encourage the continuing and escalating removal of opportunistic, pyschopath, pedophile, control freaks from power. This began in force in the U.S. ever since the Trump Era began (Although generally not exposed to the public), and is going world wide. This is the Enormous “Elephant in the room”, not the Israeli, Russian, and other influences on our politics. Generations and decades will pass for complete changes to occur. Patience and the slow game are the great virtues among those who know this.

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  89. The Scalpel says: • Website
    @Andrei Martyanov

    In fact, I believe the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided that I see a Turkish attack on a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with embedded US Special Forces far more likely than a US attack on a Turkish army column.
     
    They may be bad but NO, Turkey is not leaving NATO nor realistically moves towards Russia. Turks will continue to play with US but they inevitably will return "home" controlled for now by US. Erdogan plays his game and Russians are keenly aware of that.

    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?

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    Anon from TN
    That particular fake (which first appeared on the web page of “Kiev journalist” Vladimir Moskalenko: surprise, surprise!) was debunked in many ways. First, the last names look suspicious: every one ends with “ov”, “ev”, or “in”, not a single one having other ending, which is virtually impossible in a list of 70 names in Russia, be it the queue at the physician’s office or the list of military personnel. Second, too many names in the list sound old-fashioned, which is also unrealistic. Quite a few names were clearly manufactured from the names of Russian writers and other well-known people. Third, the term “section commander” is used, which is never used in the Russian Army, but was already used in previous fakes concocted by Ukrainian secret police. So, with the probability approaching 100% this was a fake concocted by Ukrainian secret services, pretty ham-handed, as usual.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?
     
    Girkin is NOT any reliable source for anything militarily related to Russia. He doesn't have any qualifications for that.
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  90. @Sergey Krieger
    Do not tell we Soviet people. Majority was against it. It is your personal opinion. I was against it and so was everybody I knew personally. Elites indeed sold us. But they were barking upon wrong tree, the tree that already passed its prime and was dying. We are seeing the process right now of this system death. Our resources bought them some 15-20 years but all good things come to end. They were living on debt already in i0s and now they sold future of grandkids too. If you believe this is not stupid crazy system I seriously doubt your intelligence.

    I seriously doubt the intelligence of people who say “I seriously doubt your intelligence.”

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  91. wayfarer says:
    @Avery
    {‘…With electronic beam steering, very low sidelobes and a narrow pencil beam mainlobe, the… phased array is more difficult to detect and track by an aircraft’s warning receiver when not directly painted by the radar, and vastly more difficult to jam…’}

    OK. Makes sense, for the search radar

    But the final homing of the S-200 missile is done by the on-board radar, correct?
    And that one is pretty old radar, unless that was upgrade too.
    If it was old radar, why was it not detected by the F-16?

    U.S. fighter aircraft may be capable of supersonic flying speeds of Mach 2.4, but hypersonic engines are now pushing ground-to-air missiles at Mach 6.0.

    I would imagine intercept equations, are primarily balanced by speed and distance, giving ground-to-air missiles a significant advantage over fighter aircraft, in most cases.

    source: http://www.news.com.au/technology/china-declares-success-of-hypervelocity-missile-program/news-story/f85c269edd0eb804ac6509486633cb4c

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    • Replies: @Avery
    I was not asking about speed.

    I am no expert, but the way I understand how these things work, is that the search radar first finds it in the skies and sends the missile into that narrow space where the target is. Then the missile has to home in on the target to detonate in close proximity or preferably impact the target to destroy or damage it. The other jet that was damaged most likely got hit with shrapnel of the exploding warhead of the missile, but not close enough to bring it down.

    Back to homing: missiles home in either via IR (Sidewinder), radar, optical, or combination thereof.
    See #58 'Here is what the S200 seeker looks like…'

    Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.
    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16's modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?
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  92. “Events in Syria have recently clearly taken a turn for the worse [sic!] and there is an increasing amount of evidence that the Russian task force in Syria is being targeted by a systematic campaign of “harassing attacks””. Now, that’s good news! I share the author’s view that the US strategy in Syria, whether new or otherwise, is “to punish the Russians as much as possible short of an overt US attack on Russian forces”. Such a strategy makes clear that Putin is now irreversibly bogged down in Syria and is in fact a sitting duck. The US can lower the boom on him at any time by re-launching the war and there’s nothing he can do but put up with it. If he wants to attack US or Israeli forces, he will be blamed for the escalation. The author, of course, is trying to puff up Putin but as he seems to admit, counter-escalation or tacit capitulation are really the only options for Putin. Also, as is clear from some of the comments, nobody doubts that all this is really “about” Ukraine. “Fight him in Syria so as not to have to fight him in Ukraine”. That’s Putin’s conundrum. To get a deal in Syria, he has to abandon Ukraine, but the only reason he waded into the Syrian civil war was to avoid having to abandon Ukraine. If he has to abandon Ukraine, then a deal in Syria is useless to him. His only choice is which foot he’s going to shoot himself in.

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  93. Avery says:
    @wayfarer
    U.S. fighter aircraft may be capable of supersonic flying speeds of Mach 2.4, but hypersonic engines are now pushing ground-to-air missiles at Mach 6.0.

    I would imagine intercept equations, are primarily balanced by speed and distance, giving ground-to-air missiles a significant advantage over fighter aircraft, in most cases.

    source: http://www.news.com.au/technology/china-declares-success-of-hypervelocity-missile-program/news-story/f85c269edd0eb804ac6509486633cb4c

    I was not asking about speed.

    I am no expert, but the way I understand how these things work, is that the search radar first finds it in the skies and sends the missile into that narrow space where the target is. Then the missile has to home in on the target to detonate in close proximity or preferably impact the target to destroy or damage it. The other jet that was damaged most likely got hit with shrapnel of the exploding warhead of the missile, but not close enough to bring it down.

    Back to homing: missiles home in either via IR (Sidewinder), radar, optical, or combination thereof.
    See #58 ‘Here is what the S200 seeker looks like…’

    Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.
    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?

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    DRFM Jamming Suppression for Radar Exploiting Linear Frequency Modulation Transmission.

    Abstract: Digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) jamming is difficult to eliminate if it enters a radar system from the main lobe. A novel processing scheme for radar using linear frequency modulation waveform is proposed to accomplish target detection in asynchronous false target scenarios in accordance with the incoherent characteristic of the jamming signals. The technique of fractional Fourier transformation is adopted to transform the received signals with different time delays into single frequencies, then the target is estimated by a type of modified multiple signal classification approach. The difference of the estimated frequencies among the multiple transmitting period is used to discriminate the true and false echoes. In the end, order statistic constant false alarm rate approach is applied to target detection. The results of computer simulations show that the performance of the proposed scheme is superior to the conventional pulse compression processing in radar.

    source: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8059367/

     

    Well the answers to your questions, can be found somewhere within the rapidly morphing field of electrical engineering and computer science. You could begin your investigation with the paper above.

    Although the discussion below, probably offers a simpler path to the questions/answers you seek.

    "If fighter jets can jam radars, then how can air defense systems counter hostilities?"

    source: https://www.quora.com/If-fighter-jets-can-jam-radars-then-how-can-air-defense-systems-counter-hostilities

    , @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

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  94. What I admire about Putin that he never lets himself to be provoked.
    On the other hand, he is determined not the let the west succeed in gradually getting more and more countries under their control, until the moment is ripe to take Russia, one way or another.
    The strategists in Washington must have very blood pressures with such an opponent.
    No trick succeeds, until now, on the contrary, shooting down an Israeli airplane, the first in 35 years, must give them a very high heartbeat, in addition.
    Netanyahu’s screaming about Iran, does it impress anyone, except himself ?

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    You must! And I say you must immediately contact a doctor about your stuttering.
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  95. wayfarer says:
    @Avery
    I was not asking about speed.

    I am no expert, but the way I understand how these things work, is that the search radar first finds it in the skies and sends the missile into that narrow space where the target is. Then the missile has to home in on the target to detonate in close proximity or preferably impact the target to destroy or damage it. The other jet that was damaged most likely got hit with shrapnel of the exploding warhead of the missile, but not close enough to bring it down.

    Back to homing: missiles home in either via IR (Sidewinder), radar, optical, or combination thereof.
    See #58 'Here is what the S200 seeker looks like…'

    Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.
    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16's modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?

    DRFM Jamming Suppression for Radar Exploiting Linear Frequency Modulation Transmission.

    Abstract: Digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) jamming is difficult to eliminate if it enters a radar system from the main lobe. A novel processing scheme for radar using linear frequency modulation waveform is proposed to accomplish target detection in asynchronous false target scenarios in accordance with the incoherent characteristic of the jamming signals. The technique of fractional Fourier transformation is adopted to transform the received signals with different time delays into single frequencies, then the target is estimated by a type of modified multiple signal classification approach. The difference of the estimated frequencies among the multiple transmitting period is used to discriminate the true and false echoes. In the end, order statistic constant false alarm rate approach is applied to target detection. The results of computer simulations show that the performance of the proposed scheme is superior to the conventional pulse compression processing in radar.

    source: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8059367/

    Well the answers to your questions, can be found somewhere within the rapidly morphing field of electrical engineering and computer science. You could begin your investigation with the paper above.

    Although the discussion below, probably offers a simpler path to the questions/answers you seek.

    “If fighter jets can jam radars, then how can air defense systems counter hostilities?”

    source: https://www.quora.com/If-fighter-jets-can-jam-radars-then-how-can-air-defense-systems-counter-hostilities

    Read More
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  96. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:

    Anon from TN
    Well, the US/Israeli plan to break Syria into many impotent Bantustans failed. The way I see it, there are two options now. One, Syria is divided in two by Russia and the US, like Germany and Korea after WWII. Two, Syria is preserved as a unified secular country, like it was before 2011. Option one is the current situation on the ground. Option two would require that Russia (possibly using Syrians, Iranians, and/or Hezlbollah as proxies) openly confronts the US and its vassals in Syria. So far I am not sure which option Putin will choose. He usually avoids direct confrontations with the US, but does not hesitate to smear US proxies over the wall (e.g., Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Western Syria).

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  97. There seems to be an echo in here.

    Putin didn’t smear anyone over the wall in Crimea. Russian forces were already legally stationed there and simply came out to prevent the US sponsored thuggery and murders such as what happened in Odessa. The Crimean people themselves voted overwhelmingly to rejoin Russia. There was no violence like what occurred elsewhere in Ukraine.

    I’m fairly sure that you do know this but this small correction is justified lest dangerous propaganda be nourished and allowed to grow.

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    Anon from TN
    You are right, Russian troops were in Crimea by Russian-Ukrainian bilateral agreement, and an overwhelming majority of Crimea residents (more than 80%, as was reluctantly acknowledged by Gallup and German company GfK, based on the polls they conducted after the referendum) wanted to join Russia. In fact, Crimea tried to get out of Ukraine ever since the breakup of the USSR in 1991. As Crimeans put it, in 2014 Russia did not betray them. Of course, there was no violence in Crimea: most people saw Russian solders as liberators. Then again, the situation was similar in Ossetia and Abkhazia: most people saw Georgians as occupiers and Russians as liberators, especially after Georgian troops started the war by shelling Tskhinval (Georgians called it Tskhinvali, which Ossetians saw as one of many affronts) and shooting civilians there.
    What I meant by smearing over the wall in Crimea is that more than 80% of the Ukrainian army personnel stationed in Crimea also switched sides and joined the Russian Army. Ukrainian politicians still feel hurt by this, inventing all sorts of implausible lies.
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  98. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @The Scalpel
    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?

    Anon from TN
    That particular fake (which first appeared on the web page of “Kiev journalist” Vladimir Moskalenko: surprise, surprise!) was debunked in many ways. First, the last names look suspicious: every one ends with “ov”, “ev”, or “in”, not a single one having other ending, which is virtually impossible in a list of 70 names in Russia, be it the queue at the physician’s office or the list of military personnel. Second, too many names in the list sound old-fashioned, which is also unrealistic. Quite a few names were clearly manufactured from the names of Russian writers and other well-known people. Third, the term “section commander” is used, which is never used in the Russian Army, but was already used in previous fakes concocted by Ukrainian secret police. So, with the probability approaching 100% this was a fake concocted by Ukrainian secret services, pretty ham-handed, as usual.

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    • Replies: @Vojkan
    What strikes me about the Ukies is how amateurish they are. The world has changed since such implausible tricks were pulled in the former Yugoslavia. Are they really such halfwits?
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  99. Vidi says:
    @Seamus Padraig
    But getting "sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire" and staying there permanently is Washington's goal. As long as there are "terrorists" operating there, they have an excuse to stay. This strategy serves several purposes:

    A. It denies control of them to any other power, such as Russia or China.

    B. These territories can be used to destabilize other neighboring states, if necessary (think Pakistan, Iran or Central Asia.)

    C. It gives US special forces bases of operations for covert action or reconnaissance against those same neighboring states.

    And what if some clever country like Iran manages to gain influence over one of these states, as it did in Iraq? Well, in Washingtonland, that would constitute a Crisis!!! and an Iranian act of aggression!!! demanding a response. In short, they would then have a justification for--you guessed it!--yet another intervention in the ME.

    But getting “sucked into the Middle Eastern quagmire” and staying there permanently is Washington’s goal.

    No, it’s the goal of the U.S. Zionists, who work mostly for Israel’s benefit. Most Americans probably don’t even know where Israel is, much less care. The U.S.’s fundamental interest is to not become an economic disaster, which is what it would be if it’s suckered into the Middle East.

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  100. Vojkan says:

    Step two is mandatory if the Russian want to finish the job in Syria.

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  101. Erdogan is a day late and a dollar short — five years too late in fact. Time was to expand the New Shithole Caliphate into Syria when there were no Russkie or ‘Murican boots on the ground.

    Of coutse, the ErdoOil & Family extraction and theft racket had to take precedence. Kleptoislam is never more harmlessly engaged than when it is making money.

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  102. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    DailyMail reports “dozens” of Russians killed. Since they are there supposedly on their own the Russian government is not obligated to them. The Americans did this as a provocative taunt, avoiding a direct clash with the official Russian presence but nevertheless killing the Russian mercs for some sort of demonstration effect. Since as we all now know that the various rebels were a creation of the US and it’s allies there’s a good chance that some US special forces were killed in Russian bombardments as they were embedded with the rebels. The US wouldn’t be able to acknowledge that it had personnel with AQ or ISIS but it’s apparent those groups had a lot of guidance from outside and from within.
    It’s not clear what the US thinks it’s doing right now. Since it’s original plan hasn’t worked out perhaps just sabotaging the rebuilding of the Syrian state is it’s goal. This recent incident can’t help but increase the pressure on Putin to respond in some way. Nothing good can come of all this. The US made a decision to draw up and side with some of the worst criminal Islamic fanatics and has thus put itself on the side of anti-civilization, anti-humanity forces. The US has turned into a rogue regime.

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  103. Vojkan says:
    @AnonFromTN
    Anon from TN
    That particular fake (which first appeared on the web page of “Kiev journalist” Vladimir Moskalenko: surprise, surprise!) was debunked in many ways. First, the last names look suspicious: every one ends with “ov”, “ev”, or “in”, not a single one having other ending, which is virtually impossible in a list of 70 names in Russia, be it the queue at the physician’s office or the list of military personnel. Second, too many names in the list sound old-fashioned, which is also unrealistic. Quite a few names were clearly manufactured from the names of Russian writers and other well-known people. Third, the term “section commander” is used, which is never used in the Russian Army, but was already used in previous fakes concocted by Ukrainian secret police. So, with the probability approaching 100% this was a fake concocted by Ukrainian secret services, pretty ham-handed, as usual.

    What strikes me about the Ukies is how amateurish they are. The world has changed since such implausible tricks were pulled in the former Yugoslavia. Are they really such halfwits?

    Read More
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    Anon from TN
    I know quite a few people with normal intelligence born in Ukraine. However, they either left that unfortunate country, or play deaf and dumb, if they remain there. I had two nephews in Ukraine, now one lives in Russia and one in the Netherlands. The post-coup “leadership” may be genuinely dumb, or may just pretend that they believe their own lies. After all, Poroshenko and Co successfully enrich themselves stealing with both hands, so they have no interest in upsetting the situation. They do think about the future, though, and I am sure they prepare for it. As the leader of Ukrainian Radical party and the member of Rada Oleg Lyashko said some time ago, “those, whose plane does not take off in time, will be hanged”. That’s a pretty realistic prediction, suggesting reasonable intelligence. However, the fact that the same sniper scenario that was previously used in Saraevo and Deraa, Syria, was used again in Kiev in 2014 and yielded desired result suggests that there is a significant fraction of the population with clinically low IQ.
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  104. @jilles dykstra
    What I admire about Putin that he never lets himself to be provoked.
    On the other hand, he is determined not the let the west succeed in gradually getting more and more countries under their control, until the moment is ripe to take Russia, one way or another.
    The strategists in Washington must have very blood pressures with such an opponent.
    No trick succeeds, until now, on the contrary, shooting down an Israeli airplane, the first in 35 years, must give them a very high heartbeat, in addition.
    Netanyahu's screaming about Iran, does it impress anyone, except himself ?

    You must! And I say you must immediately contact a doctor about your stuttering.

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  105. @Biff

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.
     
    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.

    Exactly.

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  106. Vojkan says:
    @Felix Keverich
    As a Russian, I agree and the only reason Putin took Crimea was to avoid paying political price for the loss of Ukraine, i.e. save himself from being overthrown. At the end of the day, this regime's main (only) concern is self-preservation - I think most of us can see this now.

    As a Serb, if I were Putin I would have done nothing differently than him regarding Ukraine. Sometimes what we feel and what is real are two different things. He did what was necessary and possible.

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  107. Vidi says:
    @Biff

    The U.S. is rich enough to survive a few disasters like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but not indefinitely.
     
    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.

    Disasters are the objective. Israeli’s have been for years planning the destabilization of neighboring governments to sow kaos, and then move into those areas in the name of security and ‘Greater Israel’. They’re just getting to dumb Americans to do the expensive dirty work.

    That’s what Israel wants: to sucker the U.S. into doing the “expensive dirty work”. However, they are using up the U.S.; according to Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, the war in Iraq cost the U.S. over three trillion dollars. And that is just the one invasion. If America’s suckered into the Middle East again (as Israel keeps trying to do), that will be the end of the Empire.

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  108. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @Vojkan
    What strikes me about the Ukies is how amateurish they are. The world has changed since such implausible tricks were pulled in the former Yugoslavia. Are they really such halfwits?

    Anon from TN
    I know quite a few people with normal intelligence born in Ukraine. However, they either left that unfortunate country, or play deaf and dumb, if they remain there. I had two nephews in Ukraine, now one lives in Russia and one in the Netherlands. The post-coup “leadership” may be genuinely dumb, or may just pretend that they believe their own lies. After all, Poroshenko and Co successfully enrich themselves stealing with both hands, so they have no interest in upsetting the situation. They do think about the future, though, and I am sure they prepare for it. As the leader of Ukrainian Radical party and the member of Rada Oleg Lyashko said some time ago, “those, whose plane does not take off in time, will be hanged”. That’s a pretty realistic prediction, suggesting reasonable intelligence. However, the fact that the same sniper scenario that was previously used in Saraevo and Deraa, Syria, was used again in Kiev in 2014 and yielded desired result suggests that there is a significant fraction of the population with clinically low IQ.

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  109. Vojkan says:

    People were excusable back then in the mid 1990s for not knowing the deception played before their eyes. After all the proven lies since then – Kosovo – Iraq – Libya – now Syria – it’s just despairing that they still swallow the “official” stories.

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    Anon from TN
    As American saying goes, “fool me once – shame on you, fool me twice –shame on me”. Unfortunately, a lot of people are so uninformed that they don’t even know that they are fooled by recycled and reused lies.
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  110. Rurik says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    You’re trying to equate Iran and Russia (acting in good faith at the behest of Syria, and in full compliance with all International Laws)

    vs.

    The rogue regimes (the Fiend) acting (as usual) in violation of all known precepts of International Law (not to mention all notions of simply decency and honor).

    The ZUS and Israel and Turkey (and Saudi Arabia and others) are illegitimate actors in the region. They are in violation of International Law, which Russia is *defending*, not violating.

    To equate Russia in Syria with the known criminal ZUS/Israeli regime, is like equating a man (Putin) who has come to the defense of a person being raped (Assad), and beaten the rapist (Bibi) away, and while consoling her and giving her his overcoat and offering her a ride home or to a hospital, you would shout that he’s as bad as the rapist, because he too is now in her (Syria’s) company!

    One is a violator and criminal, and the other is a welcomed savior and benefactor. If the rape victim eventually asks her savior in for a cup of coffee, his behavior if he accepts, is not the same as the rapist. There is a very significant difference that apparently escapes you.

    he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce

    you’re equating diplomacy and statecraft vs. unilateral belligerence- with treachery

    Pretending that Putin could have demanded an unilateral end to the conflict by a sheer use of force, is asinine. It ignores that the ZUS has been salivating for any pretext at all to accuse Putin’s Russia of aggression. It ignores Turkey and Saudi Arabia and Israel. Putin has danced a diplomatic razor’s edge, with careful use of force vs. restraint which characterizes his unique statesman-like genius.

    We all know how eager the ZUS congress was and is to slobber all over Bibi’s private parts. Especially when Obama/Hillary was in the White House. And bomb any and all nations into the stone age at the drop of a hat, if it would mean the Jewish lobby in the ZUS would grant them another term.

    We all know that Putin went along with the Fiend’s serial destruction of nation after nation.. but then Syria was just a bridge too far for Putin, and yes, it may have had something to do with Russia’s national interests; International Law being one of them. Or it may have had to do with Putin being the only adult left on the world’s stage who still had the wherewithal to thwart the slathering beast’s drooling reign of death and destruction over a beleaguered planet.

    Based on your metric, the destabilization of Ukraine is also partly Russia’s fault, (since they’ve been reluctantly dragged into that as well), but we all know that to be absurd.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    there is some truth to this, as Bibi is increasingly being forced to confront Putin. Since the goal all along has been Israel’s design to see Syria destabilized and dismembered so that she could steal the Golan Heights, and also to get the ZUS to destroy Iran for it.

    Turkey and Saudi and others are simply the jackals and vultures who figured they’d too get to peck at Syria’s bones, since the beast was off the leash, and there’d be plenty of morsels of a murdered Syria to scavenge from.

    The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    this is contradictory

    Russia has all but secured Syria’s sovereignty. The reason the ZUS is still there, is presumably to guarantee that Israel can steal the Golan, and also to act as a bulwark against Iran’s ascendancy in Syria, Lebanon. Eventually it will come down to the Golan Heights. Either Israel can steal it, or not.

    The ‘Kurdish state’, the ongoing strife between Saudi and Iran, the coquettish Erdogan, making eyes at Russia and the ZUS alternatively, are all just proxies and remoras, opportunistically dining on the scraps as the Fiend wages its vicious campaign for unilateral domination of the planet, with the few heroic nations (Russia most of all) willing to oppose it, to retain some semblance of International Law, and order.

    The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine?

    No, the “Hegemon: (Fiend) stands a little more slumped each day. Bibi is looking more and more like a ridiculous cretin on the world’s stage, erroneously and foolishly calling the Golan Heights ‘Israeli airspace’.

    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/WATCH-LIVE-Netanyahu-addresses-Munich-Security-Conference-542917

    He’s becoming a joke, and being increasingly mocked on the world’s stage.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/polish-pm-rebuked-for-holocaust-remark/ar-BBJgyaS

    As Hillary is laughed off into her obscurity, and Tillerson’s words are like so much chaff in the wind, it is Russia (and Iran and Syria and all people of good will) and the world community that stand a little taller every day. And the great zio-whore, who has been menacing the people of the planet, and raining down horrors upon horrors, is beginning to reap what it has sowed for generations now.

    Let’s hope Israel sends in a few dozen more fighters into Syria, and sees them all get shot out of the sky.

    I suspect that even the bullied and bribed men and women of the ZUS congress would quietly try to hide their smiles. As most of the rest of the planet would cheer to the heavens at the wonderful news!

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  111. FB says:
    @Avery
    I was not asking about speed.

    I am no expert, but the way I understand how these things work, is that the search radar first finds it in the skies and sends the missile into that narrow space where the target is. Then the missile has to home in on the target to detonate in close proximity or preferably impact the target to destroy or damage it. The other jet that was damaged most likely got hit with shrapnel of the exploding warhead of the missile, but not close enough to bring it down.

    Back to homing: missiles home in either via IR (Sidewinder), radar, optical, or combination thereof.
    See #58 'Here is what the S200 seeker looks like…'

    Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.
    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16's modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?

    ‘…Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..’

    Well that’s the Big Question that the Israelis are asking…isn’t it…?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles…btw…

    Not that it answers this particular question…

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done…ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft’s radar warning receiver…

    First a review of what I said in my #58…

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar…

    Your mention of acquisition radar…which is used as a first step to locate the targets…is really irrelevant here…yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies…

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane…that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane…

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason…obviously you don’t want it going off all the time…only when you are under actual attack…

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars…because…although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture…they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do…

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture…

    Let’s review what I have discussed briefly…the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200…

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone…that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix…think of it as two eyes better than one…

    I had already talked about this technique…which is called track via missile or TVM…and it is used on all modern SAMs…

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is ‘old’ that it is not effective…this is not how things work…old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way…and I will try to explain what I think happened here…and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming…[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted…where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning…

    ‘…It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out…’

    Now…not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn’t mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile…and not sit and talk on the radio…

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat…and only after making sure the coast is clear…the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock…[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time…if any…once they became aware of the missile…it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman…I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact…giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers…but we have no way of knowing the exact details…

    Ie did the RWR even go off…?

    And if so…did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers…?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off…but with precious little time before the bang…

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft…

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers…obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that…sneak up on the airplane and boom…without any warning…

    However…this may be difficult to achieve…at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix…

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away…that by the time the engagement radar locks on…it is too late…the RWR goes off…and a couple seconds later it’s lights out…

    This is indeed possible…and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows…

    In a word…this technique is called data fusion…and is already used in Russian SAMs…although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se…

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…

    What we’re looking at here is the Nebo SVU…an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background…each mounted on its own mobile chassis…and fully shoot and scoot capable…

    A little bit of background…low frequency radar waves…ie long wavelength…are effective at seeing ‘stealth’ aircraft at long distances…this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe…and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane…ie the tail or wing etc…then the stealth geometry doesn’t work and the radar sees it just fine…

    Incidentally…this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s…when he published the seminal work…Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction…

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published…in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force…[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]

    ‘…A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection…

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev’s work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber…’

    That’s why Ufimtsev…who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the ‘father of stealth’…he basically invented this entire branch of physics…

    Little sidebar there…but back to the question at hand…

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band…same as TV…and with the same kind of ‘yagi’ antennas…this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem…

    However…the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution…

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane…just the general area…

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar…the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture…which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band…and gets a more precise location fix…

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture…which does the same thing…knowing already on what sector to focus…it gets an even more finely resolved location fix…

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar…ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target…

    However…in this case it doesn’t necessarily guide the missile shot…at least not by itself…[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier…typically…the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar…which for the S400 is the 92N6E ‘Grave Stone’…which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]…the X and Ku bands…

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement…they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range…

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 ‘Flap Lid’ phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300…here is what the Grave Stone looks like…

    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on…and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky…because the other radars have already told it where to look…

    Now what happens next is the interesting part…like I said…the S-band part of the ‘acquisition’ complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot…at least for midcourse guidance…as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight…

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill…

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up…because those lower-frequency radars aren’t able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR…which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar…

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here…remember that data fusion truck…?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars…and combine that into a ‘virtual’ fix on the target…

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]…which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars…

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept…but the implication is obvious…using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together…it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away…

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage…since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency…ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum…

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment…it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured…and the reaction time is minimized…

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria…and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs…

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov…

    ‘…Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping…’

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly ‘obsolete’ S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted…and at quite an impressive range…

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth…

    ‘…A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded…’

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground…as many observers have noted…including the above author…

    ‘…The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region…’

    This article…as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading…

    …especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel…

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    • Replies: @Avery
    thanks for the detailed explanation.
    , @NoseytheDuke
    Comments like yours serve as a force multiplier on the already hefty Unz Review. Thanks.
    , @wayfarer
    Interesting insight, thanks.

    Along the same line of inquiry, this appears to be a fascinating read.

    "How Radar Jamming & Deception Changed Warfare FOREVER (Plus Future Trends)"
    source: http://blog.bliley.com/radar-jamming-deception-electronic-warfare

    , @FB
    Just an additional thought to tie up the loose end regarding the technicalities of that air engagement...

    Specifically regarding that second plane that managed to get away...

    We had heard unconfirmed reports that this was an F15...which was damaged enough to make an emergency landing...

    Obviously any info on this is not going to be made public and would be available only within the IAF community...if there is indeed any truth to the damage part...

    We do know from the Israeli press that this airplane was locked on but made good its escape...if it was indeed an F15 then that is a much more powerful airplane than the single-engine F16...especially that two-seat F16 version which main mission would be ground attack...with a weapons systems officer in the back seat...

    The F15 has a much higher thrust to weight ratio with its two big engines...and it would have a much better shot at escaping a SAM than an F16...

    But in the end it all comes down to the guy sitting in the driver's seat...even with very little warning of an incoming shot...making the right move in a split second is often the difference...

    , @Andrei Martyanov

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    Facepalm.

    Data-fusion was developed for the averaging of heterogeneous sensors, from radar to optronics, and is profoundly mentioned in Alberts and Garstka large work on Net Centric Warfare.

    http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_NCW.pdf

    To start with page 144 and table on Sensor Network. Page 151 (Figure. 27) gives a P distribution. It was 20 + years ago.
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  112. Avery says:
    @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

    thanks for the detailed explanation.

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  113. FB says:
    @skrik

    Just a further note about the significance of bringing down that plane in Israeli airspace
     
    Err - surely the entire action, from AA-launch to 'hit' *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the 'simple' reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions? Like, say, great swarms of IDF ['D' = offence] tanks pouring out through the Fulda - err, Golan Gap?

    The way I would see it is a) the IDF warplanes' incursion into Syria, b) their firing of attack-rockets, c) the IDF warplanes turning to return 'home' THEN d) getting hit from behind without notice, but being pointed in the return direction ejecting, allowing the crash to take place outside Syria.

    Not so BTW, many thanks for your detailed, helpful explications. rgds

    ‘…Err – surely the entire action, from AA-launch to ‘hit’ *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the ‘simple’ reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions?..’

    Not so…

    Here is some of the available information from the Israeli press…which I have already pointed to previously…

    ‘…The initial assessments of the event indicate that the plane was brought down while flying over Israel after a large volley of anti-aircraft missiles — at least five, but possibly more — were fired at it, Conricus said.

    The army said it was still investigating if the plane was brought down because it was operating at a high altitude to ensure its bombs were hitting their targets, which made it easier for Syrian air defenses to spot and fire at it, and failed to react quickly enough, as was reported in Israeli media outlets on Sunday…’

    I had said exactly that in my #74…

    ‘…we note the comment about the plane’s high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range…’

    Another report in a NYT op-ed piece by a well-known Israeli defense reporter…supports that scenario with additional detail…

    ‘…A minute and a half after the drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded…’

    By this account…the eight Israeli warplanes firing missiles into Syria happened ‘simultaneously’ with that drone being shot down…that means there was no time for a cross-border raid…

    So all indications are that Israel fired its missiles into Syria…as it has been doing for some time now…from outside of Syrian airspace…

    That still constitutes an act of war…and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace…

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    • Replies: @skrik

    and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace…
     
    That's good to know, and thanks for the extended explanation - but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM - which is not to challenge your account in any way, just saying. The MSM gets their info, presumably, from the [even more questionable credibility] govt. and/or military, who have zero compunction to give us the true story. As all things these [sad] days, we have to evaluate everything. Soo, back to thanking you, and expect to see IDF pilots being a bit more circumspect vis-à-vis Syria?
    , @skrik
    2nd bite: cui bono?

    IF the IDF was in Syrian airspace THEN they'd hardly [= never!] admit it, since that would unmistakably mean that they would be pleading guilty to aggression.

    Obviously, a big "NO, NO!"

    Sooo, they - and the corrupt&venal, Z-loving MSM+PFBCs - all say the same: The Z-missiles were shot from within Israel, and that's where the Syrian AA hit them!

    Yeah; sounds about right. The next "sooo" is that the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace - and will do nothing - except perhaps show alleged bits of an alleged Iranian drone in the MSC?

    Oh, yeah! Right on! Go, Zs! - Directly into the dustbin of history...
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  114. @oscar
    if us arms isis and al nusra what would happen if taliban got surge weapons from an unknown player, usa would not have bandwidth

    also russians should stop obsessing with "ukronazis"let them have territories as compensation for russian shabas goim complicity in the judeo communist massacre of millions white ukranian christians desecalate stupid war populate eastern russia instead

    Spot on.

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    While there is absolutely no need to copy present-day Germany’s guilt-cult, a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists might actually help the Russians to find solutions and even draw present enemies over to them.

    (I am not going to waste my time answering to irate Russians. I am no enemy of that nation, to the contrary, but if you insist on shutting your eyes fast, don’t complain about the occastional stubbed toe: it’s completely unnecessary.)

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    • Agree: L.K
    • Troll: FB
    • Replies: @polskijoe
    Putin did mention millions of dead/victims under Stalin and said its undeniable what happened.
    I think thats a good step.

    Its called “The Wall of Grief" or something.

    Certainly the Soviets did crimes and did murder millions. But many Westerners and neonazis/neoliberalcons exagerate them.

    Russians like Stalin because he stopped Hitler and did more than scum like Lenin/Trotsky. I believe around 50% of Russian view Stalin positively.
    Yet you will find many Russians also acknowledge he did crimes.

    Ive only seen hardcore Communists deny his crimes.

    , @jilles dykstra
    Are USA citizens aware of USA crimes ?
    , @EugeneGur

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.
     
    This is the silliest thing to say and can only be explain by you complete ignorance. The Russians themselves denounces the crimes. Hundreds and hundreds of books have been published in Russia on the subject. The discussion of the matter has been going in our society in public and in private as long as I can remember. We've had theater plays, museum exhibition, historical studies, TV programs devotes to these events - you name it, we've had it. How much more awareness do you expect, talks about this every day at dinner?

    I think by the lack of awareness you mean that we don't swallow everything the West throws at us, like "Stalin murdered millions", "Stalin was worse than Hitler", "Stalin murdered more people than anyone else" and similar garbage. We want to know the real numbers and real events, not fairy tales invented for specific political purposes.

    a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists
     
    We remember well what the policy of not making noises once led to. So with your permission or without it, we'll continue making noises, for nobody else seems to be willing to. You all appear perfectly fine with the Nazis.
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  115. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @Vojkan
    People were excusable back then in the mid 1990s for not knowing the deception played before their eyes. After all the proven lies since then - Kosovo - Iraq - Libya - now Syria - it's just despairing that they still swallow the "official" stories.

    Anon from TN
    As American saying goes, “fool me once – shame on you, fool me twice –shame on me”. Unfortunately, a lot of people are so uninformed that they don’t even know that they are fooled by recycled and reused lies.

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  116. @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

    Comments like yours serve as a force multiplier on the already hefty Unz Review. Thanks.

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    • Replies: @FB
    Thanks Nosey...

    Appreciate the kind words...

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  117. FB says:

    A significant development today on the Afrin front that was not totally unexpected…

    In my #30…I had said this…

    ‘…So the idea of the Turks overrunning Afrin is very dangerous…there are constant reports and rumors that the Afrin Kurds are on the brink of coming to terms with the SAA so the SAA can come in and proclaim Syrian sovereignty over the area…

    In this scenario…backed by Russian diplomatic and military guarantees…the Turks would have no choice but to retreat…their raison d’etre would be gone if the Kurdish Afrin is in the Syrian fold…’

    Well…now we have reports that this deal has been reached…and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours…

    A spokesman for the Kurdish PYD…the political wing of the YPG…said this…

    ‘…We are urging the Syrian army to come to protest the Syrian borders from the Turkish occupation. Afrin is part of Syria, that’s why we have called on the army to stand on guard of the border…

    We are calling on the army to help, because we’d love to preserve a unified Syria, as Turkey is seeking to annex the Syrian territories and make them part of its land, like it was with Aleksandretta sanjak [during the Ottoman Empire]…’

    This is another huge development…

    We see this coming on the heels of Tillerson’s visit to Ankara…where the Kurds had surely been hoping that Tillerson would have made some kind of deal with Erdogan to back off on the Afrin invasion…

    That never happened…surprise surprise…

    The Afrin Kurds clearly saw that the sellout was complete…they were being thrown to the Turkish wolves by their ‘buddy’ USA…

    Now the SDF-held Afrin region is being reintegrated into Syria…

    This is what happens when the US insists on pissing into the wind…

    This Afrin sellout will also not go unnoticed by the Kurds in Manbij and elsewhere throughout the SDF held area east of the Euphrates…

    It only illustrates the sheer and utter futility of the US position…

    Really the Turks are much more dangerous right now…if they succeed in taking over Afrin it would be a disaster…but that now seems more remote than ever…

    We must ask…is it really a coincidence that Erdogan launched this latest invasion of Syrian territory right at the same moment in time when the Turkish backed terrorists in Idlib are getting pasted by the SAA and Russian aviation…?

    I hardly think so…

    But here we see that all the stars are lining up now in Syria’s favor…the Idlib rats are getting wiped out…The Turks have made little progress in Afrin…and now as the SAA [supported by Russia] steps in to calm that down…the whole Turkish ‘Olive Branch’ will just be so much kindling for the fire…

    At the same time we have seen Israel reigned in by a firm and resolute Putin…

    I had quoted from this NYT op-ed in my previous technical posts…but the political dimension here is truly revealing…

    ‘…The response to the downing of the Israeli jet was intended to be a lot more violent.

    Israel has long maintained contingency plans for a huge offensive operation in Syria. On Saturday, the generals took them out of the drawer. But the Iranians and the Syrians, along with their Lebanese ally Hezbollah, realized that something like that was in the offing, and let it be known that they would not let it happen without responding. The Israelis heard this, but were not deterred. The Israel Defense Forces went on to a war footing.

    It soon became clear, though, who is calling the shots.

    The Israeli bombardments of the air base had been dangerously close to Russian forces.

    A furious phone call on Saturday morning from President Vladimir Putin of Russia was enough to make Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel cancel the plans…’

    Let there be no doubt who is calling the shots…and his name starts with VVP…

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    • Replies: @Randal

    Well…now we have reports that this deal has been reached…and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours…
     
    I was rather sceptical of this when you suggested the other day that it would happen, so I'm somewhat surprised that it does seem to have come to pass (assuming deeds follow the words - not always the case in such matters).

    The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east. The risk for the Syrians is that they now get locked into conflict with the Turks in Afrin while the US stays cosily embedded with the Kurds further east.

    It might be that they have a wider deal with the Kurds that involves the expulsion of US influence, but this seems unlikely. I doubt the Kurds in Afrin were yet desperate enough to agree to that, except perhaps on some future "never never" basis whereby they'd kick out the Yanks if and when the Syrians have shown they can successfully see off the Turks. But why trust the Kurds? Once the Turks are out of Afrin, what leverage would the Syrians have any more over the SDF Kurds?

    Surely the best approach would be to let the Kurds in Afrin stew and the conflict with the Turks deepen. Show the Turks out of Idlib but let them sit in Afrin until the Kurds generally are desperate enough to come to proper terms involving the wholesale expulsion of US forces and influence. If to the contrary the Syrians are willing to give up the "Turkish threat" leverage with the Kurds so soon, then it likely means they are confident that they can force the US out by other means probably involving putting pressure on them on the ground.

    Time will tell.
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  118. FB says:
    @NoseytheDuke
    Comments like yours serve as a force multiplier on the already hefty Unz Review. Thanks.

    Thanks Nosey…

    Appreciate the kind words…

    Read More
    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    I really should have said comments such as yours rather than like yours, since there are none like them. Cheers
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  119. Kurds are the last proxy warriors of USA and so the last reason for US to be there,
    Kurds must lie down their arms.

    Read More
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  120. G. B. says:
    @NoseytheDuke
    The proliferation of SAMs and MANPADs can only lead to eventual blowback and in a big way. I'd hate to hear of more innocent civilians killed on commercial flights as with MH17 but it doesn't take the ownership of a deluxe model crystal ball to say that at some point it will happen, either in the US or EU. Should El Al planes be hit it would be very damaging for Israel's reputation and economy and likewise the US. I'm of the opinion that Russia would face less of a threat but would still run risks. This is all for what?

    EU’s new military pact poses no threat to NATO: Mogherini

    ”The European Union has dismissed a call by the United States “to include in written EU documents” that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) role in protecting Europe would not be threatened by the EU’s newly-established massive military pact.”

    http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/02/16/552574/Mogherini-NATO-Sofia-PESCO-military-pact

    Read More
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  121. @FB
    Thanks Nosey...

    Appreciate the kind words...

    I really should have said comments such as yours rather than like yours, since there are none like them. Cheers

    Read More
    • Replies: @FB
    Thanks again, Nosey...just trying to do my little part here in our collective search for the truth...
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  122. wayfarer says:
    @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

    Interesting insight, thanks.

    Along the same line of inquiry, this appears to be a fascinating read.

    “How Radar Jamming & Deception Changed Warfare FOREVER (Plus Future Trends)”
    source: http://blog.bliley.com/radar-jamming-deception-electronic-warfare

    Read More
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  123. KenH says:

    I hope Putin and Russia craft a much stronger response as they’re starting to lose face and I’m starting to lose respect for them. I do believe these strikes resulting in small Russian losses are indeed intended to punish Russia for their support for Assad without pushing the envelope too far and make them think twice about continued support. I think the U.S. is hoping that Putin will conclude it’s no longer worth the risk of war with the them and just abandon Assad to the wolves.

    If Russia does not answer soon with proportional military responses then I think the U.S. will start upping the ante to see how much more they can humiliate Putin and Russia in the eyes of the allies.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    I share these concerns but I suspect Putin understands that these attacks amount to, in the scheme of things, annoyances (as much as it would be nice to see the Americans get a dose of their own medicine). This issue is not just about Russia’s legitimate interests in the ME, it is also about defending Russia from subjugation by the Zio-American Imperium. Putin will not let Russia get dragged into a war they are not yet ready for, although I agree he often seems too trusting of the US.
    , @NoseytheDuke
    "War should be avoided whenever possible. A wise leader conserves his military strength." Sun Tzu

    There's more... "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win." (Which one best describes the ZUSA?)

    "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare."

    That last one is a bonus one because it's the one that even American chest-thumpers and fist pumpers (USA! USA! USA!) will come to accept, sooner or later. It's the same logic by which people quit smoking AFTER they get cancer.
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  124. FB says:
    @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

    Just an additional thought to tie up the loose end regarding the technicalities of that air engagement…

    Specifically regarding that second plane that managed to get away…

    We had heard unconfirmed reports that this was an F15…which was damaged enough to make an emergency landing…

    Obviously any info on this is not going to be made public and would be available only within the IAF community…if there is indeed any truth to the damage part…

    We do know from the Israeli press that this airplane was locked on but made good its escape…if it was indeed an F15 then that is a much more powerful airplane than the single-engine F16…especially that two-seat F16 version which main mission would be ground attack…with a weapons systems officer in the back seat…

    The F15 has a much higher thrust to weight ratio with its two big engines…and it would have a much better shot at escaping a SAM than an F16…

    But in the end it all comes down to the guy sitting in the driver’s seat…even with very little warning of an incoming shot…making the right move in a split second is often the difference…

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    • Replies: @renfro
    Really appreciate you sharing your expertise with us...good job!
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  125. FB says:
    @NoseytheDuke
    I really should have said comments such as yours rather than like yours, since there are none like them. Cheers

    Thanks again, Nosey…just trying to do my little part here in our collective search for the truth…

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  126. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    lolz. Weapons aren’t going to determine what’s going to happen in Syria. Children play with plastic army men, tanks and jet planes and many adults are paid to do the same thing. Line up your army men!

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  127. polskijoe says:
    @Byrresheim
    Spot on.

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    While there is absolutely no need to copy present-day Germany's guilt-cult, a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists might actually help the Russians to find solutions and even draw present enemies over to them.

    (I am not going to waste my time answering to irate Russians. I am no enemy of that nation, to the contrary, but if you insist on shutting your eyes fast, don't complain about the occastional stubbed toe: it's completely unnecessary.)

    Putin did mention millions of dead/victims under Stalin and said its undeniable what happened.
    I think thats a good step.

    Its called “The Wall of Grief” or something.

    Certainly the Soviets did crimes and did murder millions. But many Westerners and neonazis/neoliberalcons exagerate them.

    Russians like Stalin because he stopped Hitler and did more than scum like Lenin/Trotsky. I believe around 50% of Russian view Stalin positively.
    Yet you will find many Russians also acknowledge he did crimes.

    Ive only seen hardcore Communists deny his crimes.

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    • Replies: @Beefcake the Mighty
    Stalin was brutal, but Trotsky surely would have been worse, and I suspect many Russians recognize this. Even if it was only circumstances that forced Stalin to restore various symbols of Russian culture and nation, Trotsky doubtless would have destroyed these.
    , @Jesse James
    Stalin and the USSR also did more than the US and UK combined to defeat Hitler- the Russians had no choice after being invaded. The Americans and Brits had to travel by plane and ship to get to the ground fighting.
    , @jilles dykstra
    Read
    Morgan Philips Price (edited Tania Rose), ‘Dispatches from the Weimar Republic, Versailles and German Fascism’, London 1999
    starving Ukrainian families on railway stations, desperately trying to sell something in order to get food.
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  128. @The Scalpel
    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?

    What Is your analysis of Strelkov/Girkin comments that hundreds or Wagner were killed in US assault?

    Girkin is NOT any reliable source for anything militarily related to Russia. He doesn’t have any qualifications for that.

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  129. We had heard unconfirmed reports that this was an F15…which was damaged enough to make an emergency landing…

    Who knows, maybe it was another “bird strike” as with the previous F-35?

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  130. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @NoseytheDuke
    There seems to be an echo in here.

    Putin didn't smear anyone over the wall in Crimea. Russian forces were already legally stationed there and simply came out to prevent the US sponsored thuggery and murders such as what happened in Odessa. The Crimean people themselves voted overwhelmingly to rejoin Russia. There was no violence like what occurred elsewhere in Ukraine.

    I'm fairly sure that you do know this but this small correction is justified lest dangerous propaganda be nourished and allowed to grow.

    Anon from TN
    You are right, Russian troops were in Crimea by Russian-Ukrainian bilateral agreement, and an overwhelming majority of Crimea residents (more than 80%, as was reluctantly acknowledged by Gallup and German company GfK, based on the polls they conducted after the referendum) wanted to join Russia. In fact, Crimea tried to get out of Ukraine ever since the breakup of the USSR in 1991. As Crimeans put it, in 2014 Russia did not betray them. Of course, there was no violence in Crimea: most people saw Russian solders as liberators. Then again, the situation was similar in Ossetia and Abkhazia: most people saw Georgians as occupiers and Russians as liberators, especially after Georgian troops started the war by shelling Tskhinval (Georgians called it Tskhinvali, which Ossetians saw as one of many affronts) and shooting civilians there.
    What I meant by smearing over the wall in Crimea is that more than 80% of the Ukrainian army personnel stationed in Crimea also switched sides and joined the Russian Army. Ukrainian politicians still feel hurt by this, inventing all sorts of implausible lies.

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    • Replies: @yurivku
    That's true. Know it well having relatives in Crimea.
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  131. @polskijoe
    Putin did mention millions of dead/victims under Stalin and said its undeniable what happened.
    I think thats a good step.

    Its called “The Wall of Grief" or something.

    Certainly the Soviets did crimes and did murder millions. But many Westerners and neonazis/neoliberalcons exagerate them.

    Russians like Stalin because he stopped Hitler and did more than scum like Lenin/Trotsky. I believe around 50% of Russian view Stalin positively.
    Yet you will find many Russians also acknowledge he did crimes.

    Ive only seen hardcore Communists deny his crimes.

    Stalin was brutal, but Trotsky surely would have been worse, and I suspect many Russians recognize this. Even if it was only circumstances that forced Stalin to restore various symbols of Russian culture and nation, Trotsky doubtless would have destroyed these.

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    • Agree: polskijoe
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  132. @KenH
    I hope Putin and Russia craft a much stronger response as they're starting to lose face and I'm starting to lose respect for them. I do believe these strikes resulting in small Russian losses are indeed intended to punish Russia for their support for Assad without pushing the envelope too far and make them think twice about continued support. I think the U.S. is hoping that Putin will conclude it's no longer worth the risk of war with the them and just abandon Assad to the wolves.

    If Russia does not answer soon with proportional military responses then I think the U.S. will start upping the ante to see how much more they can humiliate Putin and Russia in the eyes of the allies.

    I share these concerns but I suspect Putin understands that these attacks amount to, in the scheme of things, annoyances (as much as it would be nice to see the Americans get a dose of their own medicine). This issue is not just about Russia’s legitimate interests in the ME, it is also about defending Russia from subjugation by the Zio-American Imperium. Putin will not let Russia get dragged into a war they are not yet ready for, although I agree he often seems too trusting of the US.

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  133. Lobotomized people walking in the wilderness.
    At least Jews kept their wits when they were wondering in the wilderness.

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  134. @FB

    '...Clearly, if the picture is accurate, S-200 homes in via a radar.

    So the question was: if it still carries an old radar, how is it that F-16′s modern ECW did not detect it before it impacted?..'
     

    Well that's the Big Question that the Israelis are asking...isn't it...?

    It would be useful for anyone following my technical comments to click through those links and read those artcles...btw...

    Not that it answers this particular question...

    Here I will go over some of the technical specifics and more details and offer a method of operating this SAM system in a way that might do what it seems to have done...ie got the missile close enough without setting off the target aircraft's radar warning receiver...

    First a review of what I said in my #58...

    The radar that is carried in the nose of the S200 and pictured there works in conjunction with the Engagement Radar...

    Your mention of acquisition radar...which is used as a first step to locate the targets...is really irrelevant here...yes these are used but they will never set off the RWR since they are just basically scanning the skies...

    The RWR is designed to go off only when there is a radar lock on the airplane...that means that the engagement radar has fixed a very narrow and powerful radio beam on the airplane...

    The RWR is designed like that for a very logical reason...obviously you don't want it going off all the time...only when you are under actual attack...

    That is why I have not discussed acquisition radars...because...although they are an important part of the overall air defense picture...they are not relevant to the discussion of how the legacy S200 missiles can be made to do things that only modern S300/400 systems are thought able to do...

    Your mention of such is only confusing the picture...

    Let's review what I have discussed briefly...the new and very powerful phased array engagement radars used on the S300/400 can control the legacy S200...

    The S200 works by means of both its engagement radar and the onboard radar in the missile nosecone...that onboard seeker sends signals back to the engagement radar that helps get a better fix...think of it as two eyes better than one...

    I had already talked about this technique...which is called track via missile or TVM...and it is used on all modern SAMs...

    Now you are assuming that just because that onboard radar seeker is 'old' that it is not effective...this is not how things work...old tech can be very effective when used in a particular way...and I will try to explain what I think happened here...and why those targeted Israeli pilots did not see the missiles coming...[or saw them only when it was already too late...]

    We step back here and note from that article I quoted...where the Israeli defense correspondent talks about the lack of warning...


    '...It was reported that the pilots did not radio in any alert that an enemy missile had locked onto their plane. In principle, they were supposed to report that. They might have been preoccupied.

    But there is also the more severe possibility that they were unaware of the missile that had locked onto them—which leads to the question of why they didn’t know, and only realized the severity of the damage after they had been hit and were forced to bail out...'
     

    Now...not going on the radio to report a missile lock doesn't mean anything because obviously the pilot is first trying to fly the airplane and escape the pursuing missile...and not sit and talk on the radio...

    Issuing a quick radio report may be done in cases where there is a lock-on but no apparent missile threat...and only after making sure the coast is clear...the pilot can then go on the radio and report the lock...[this is a cat and mouse game that goes on all the time...]

    But what this does tell us is that the two-man crew of that F16 had very little time...if any...once they became aware of the missile...it was all over maybe even before they could initiate evasive maneuvers [by the sound of it...]

    The way the story is told by Fishman...I would say it is probable that their RWR went off with maybe a few seconds before impact...giving almost no reaction time to take evasive maneuvers...but we have no way of knowing the exact details...

    Ie did the RWR even go off...?

    And if so...did they have time to even begin evasive maneuvers...?

    Being forced to guess here I would say that it sounds like a situation where the RWR probably did go off...but with precious little time before the bang...

    I say this because it would be very difficult for a SAM engagement radar to behave in such a stealthy way as to lock on without setting off any warning at all in the target aircraft...

    Of course this is the ultimate objective of SAM designers...obviously they are trying to come up with a technical solution that will do just that...sneak up on the airplane and boom...without any warning...

    However...this may be difficult to achieve...at some point that pursuing missile needs a very strong radar signal [lock] on that target airplane in order to make the precise intercept fix...

    I would say a realistic objective is to get that missile quite close without giving it away...that by the time the engagement radar locks on...it is too late...the RWR goes off...and a couple seconds later it's lights out...

    This is indeed possible...and I will describe such a prospective technique as follows...

    In a word...this technique is called data fusion...and is already used in Russian SAMs...although not to my knowledge with respect to engagement radars per se...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars...such as these...


    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg


    What we're looking at here is the Nebo SVU...an anti-stealth radar complex consisting of three radars of differing wavelengths in the foreground and a data fusion system in the background...each mounted on its own mobile chassis...and fully shoot and scoot capable...

    A little bit of background...low frequency radar waves...ie long wavelength...are effective at seeing 'stealth' aircraft at long distances...this is because stealth aircraft design is largely based on geometric shaping of the airframe...and when the radio wavelength is physically longer than the features of the airplane...ie the tail or wing etc...then the stealth geometry doesn't work and the radar sees it just fine...

    Incidentally...this branch of physics was developed by Russian academic Petr Ufimtsev in the early 1960s...when he published the seminal work...Method of Edge Waves in the Physical Theory of Diffraction...

    The Russians saw little value in this work and allowed it to be published...in 1971 this book was translated into English with the same title by the U.S. Air Force...[still available free online from USAF if anyone wants a link...]


    '...A stealth engineer at Lockheed, Denys Overholser, had read the publication and realized that Ufimtsev had created the mathematical theory and tools to do finite analysis of radar reflection...

    This discovery inspired and had a big role in the design of the first true stealth aircraft, the Lockheed F-117.

    Northrop also used Ufimtsev's work to program super computers to predict the radar reflection of the B-2 bomber...'
     

    That's why Ufimtsev...who later went on to teach at UCLA is known as the 'father of stealth'...he basically invented this entire branch of physics...

    Little sidebar there...but back to the question at hand...

    So we have that big radar on the right hand side of the picture that is in the VHF band...same as TV...and with the same kind of 'yagi' antennas...this is in the two-meter band wavelength and can see through the stealth shaping without problem...

    However...the problem with low frequency radar is low resolution...

    It cannot get a very precise fix on that airplane...just the general area...

    Now what happens is that this info is passed on to the next shorter wavelength radar...the L-band in the middle foreground of the picture...which focuses on the area provided by the VHF band...and gets a more precise location fix...

    That location data is again passed on to the S-band radar in the left of the picture...which does the same thing...knowing already on what sector to focus...it gets an even more finely resolved location fix...

    The S-band is actually a short enough wavelength to use as an engagement radar...ie it can produce a very thin beam that is very precise and can guide a missile to the target...

    However...in this case it doesn't necessarily guide the missile shot...at least not by itself...[that's why this this whole complex is classed as an Acquisition radar system...]

    Like I said earlier...typically...the acquisition radar hands off the target location data to the actual engagement radar...which for the S400 is the 92N6E 'Grave Stone'...which operates in an even shorter wavelength [higher frequency]...the X and Ku bands...

    These frequencies can produce a very sharp, thin radio beam with very fine resolution of the target location and movement...they can make this thin radio beam because the wavelength is in the millimeter range...

    The 92N6E is a more evolved and much more powerful version of the 5N63 'Flap Lid' phased array first introduced on the earliest generation S300...here is what the Grave Stone looks like...


    http://www.ausairpower.net/PVO-S/92N6-Grave-Stone-MiroslavGyurosi-1S.jpg


    What happens here is that the Grave Stone engagement radar now has a very precise location to home in on...and it can focus all of its electrical power into a very small sector of the sky...because the other radars have already told it where to look...

    Now what happens next is the interesting part...like I said...the S-band part of the 'acquisition' complex is accurate enough to guide the missile shot...at least for midcourse guidance...as well as a datalink to the missile during its midcourse flight...

    The engagement radar takes over when the missile is in very close and closing for the kill...

    Now the advantage of all this is that the missile is basically sneaking up...because those lower-frequency radars aren't able to produce that thin powerful radio beam that is going to set off the target aircraft RWR...which are tuned precisely for those thin, high frequency radio beams used by the engagement radar...

    And there is an additional bit of trickery involved here...remember that data fusion truck...?

    Well the idea of data fusion is to combine signals from a number of different radars...and combine that into a 'virtual' fix on the target...

    The US navy uses a similar scheme which they call cooperative engagement capability [CEC]...which collects and simultaneously fuses tracking data from multiple shipboard search radars...

    It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept...but the implication is obvious...using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together...it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away...

    The fact that these radars are also using different wavelengths is an additional advantage...since the RWR will be tuned for a typical engagement radar frequency...ie the very precise and powerful high frequency [short wavelength] radio waves in the X and Ku spectrum...

    The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment...it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured...and the reaction time is minimized...

    The Russians certainly have a lot of these very powerful radars in Syria...and, as of 2017, they are all networked together with the Syrian SAMs...

    Here is the statement from Chief of Staff and Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...


    '...Today, a unified, integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems. All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     

    So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly 'obsolete' S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted...and at quite an impressive range...

    A good overview is in this NYT op-ed piece by Ronen Bergman a senior correspondent for military and intelligence affairs at Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth...


    '...A minute and a half after the [Iranian] drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     

    The bigger picture is that we have just seen a game-changer in the region that reflects a new reality on the ground...as many observers have noted...including the above author...

    '...The events on Saturday made two things clear: First, Israel will no longer be able to act in Syria without limitations. The joint forces opposed to it will from now on react with vigor.

    Second, if anyone was not yet aware of it, Russia is the dominant power in the region...'

     

    This article...as well as the Crooke article and others I have linked to are strongly suggested reading...

    ...especially for a number of clueless commenters here who seem to be getting their info from the disney channel...

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…

    Facepalm.

    Data-fusion was developed for the averaging of heterogeneous sensors, from radar to optronics, and is profoundly mentioned in Alberts and Garstka large work on Net Centric Warfare.

    http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_NCW.pdf

    To start with page 144 and table on Sensor Network. Page 151 (Figure. 27) gives a P distribution. It was 20 + years ago.

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    • Replies: @FB

    '...Facepalm...'
     
    Yeah whatever Martyanov...

    Do you have an actual technical critique here...?

    Didn't think so...

    The point of my explanation...from which you no doubt learned more than you care to admit...was not the abstract origins of the concept of 'data fusion' in general...but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking...

    Anyway...thanks for the book link...

    Page 142 where it talks about radar data fusion...

    '...Sensor fusion enables measurements from two or more sensors to develop a composite track...

    The error ellipsoids that characterize the composite track converge much more rapidly to a level of accuracy that permits engagements (engagement quality awareness) when information from multiple sensors is available and utilized...'
     
    Basically what I explained quite nicely to the layman audience...

    Anyway...thanks for your helpful attitude...
    , @yurivku
    For FB's aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses and understanding that my English is not good enough to describe such complex technical thing - I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

    I can assume that it was modified that way, but knowing well its internal structure I don't beleive it.
    S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.

    For S-300, s-400 yes, they get periodical trajectory corrections from phase radar and such story could be truethful.
    , @Eagle Eye
    The term "fusion" and the diagram on p. 145 clearly indicate that "fusion" was - even back then - conceived as a rather more complex process than mere "averaging."
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  135. @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    Way to go dude.!

    Let’s see your King of the South do his shit…hey. Its Daniel 8 boy. You have set up your tents between the holy mountain and the sea. Come on big fella its time to lift your dukes up. Drag your sorry carcass to block.

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  136. FB says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    Facepalm.

    Data-fusion was developed for the averaging of heterogeneous sensors, from radar to optronics, and is profoundly mentioned in Alberts and Garstka large work on Net Centric Warfare.

    http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_NCW.pdf

    To start with page 144 and table on Sensor Network. Page 151 (Figure. 27) gives a P distribution. It was 20 + years ago.

    ‘…Facepalm…’

    Yeah whatever Martyanov…

    Do you have an actual technical critique here…?

    Didn’t think so…

    The point of my explanation…from which you no doubt learned more than you care to admit…was not the abstract origins of the concept of ‘data fusion’ in general…but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking…

    Anyway…thanks for the book link…

    Page 142 where it talks about radar data fusion…

    ‘…Sensor fusion enables measurements from two or more sensors to develop a composite track…

    The error ellipsoids that characterize the composite track converge much more rapidly to a level of accuracy that permits engagements (engagement quality awareness) when information from multiple sensors is available and utilized…’

    Basically what I explained quite nicely to the layman audience…

    Anyway…thanks for your helpful attitude…

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking…

     

    You obviously never heard of optronic channels which are present in any modern AD system nor, obviously, you understand how sensor networks work. Here is a basic illustration of all Eurofighter sensors involved in eliminating acquisition and targeting uncertainties--a main reason for evolution of sensor (data) fusion.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Eurofighter_sensor_fusion.png

    Should you have known how Uspekh (1960s) or Legenda (late 1970s on) worked you wouldn't write this amateur BS, and I quote:

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    You also, most likely, never heard of other target acquisition, targeting and firing solutions based on means OTHER than radar, such as Liana providing geographic coordinates (among other targeting (TzU)) based on "visuals". In fact there are some photos of even Legenda from 1980s providing visual tie in with geographic coordinates (lambda, phi) on targets, such as Carrier Battle Group. And, yes, I never-never dealt in my life with sensor fusion.;-) Like absolutely not, especially not on submarines which had and still do complexes which amount to, well, data fusion. I can even give you a hint--they give you uncertainties and probabilities, which, of course, you need to launch such things, among many, as Sea Launched Strategic Ballistic Missiles. But never mind, let's say that you are right--sensor and data fusion was indeed created for "anti-stealth radar". LOL.
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  137. @KenH
    I hope Putin and Russia craft a much stronger response as they're starting to lose face and I'm starting to lose respect for them. I do believe these strikes resulting in small Russian losses are indeed intended to punish Russia for their support for Assad without pushing the envelope too far and make them think twice about continued support. I think the U.S. is hoping that Putin will conclude it's no longer worth the risk of war with the them and just abandon Assad to the wolves.

    If Russia does not answer soon with proportional military responses then I think the U.S. will start upping the ante to see how much more they can humiliate Putin and Russia in the eyes of the allies.

    “War should be avoided whenever possible. A wise leader conserves his military strength.” Sun Tzu

    There’s more… “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” (Which one best describes the ZUSA?)

    “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.”

    That last one is a bonus one because it’s the one that even American chest-thumpers and fist pumpers (USA! USA! USA!) will come to accept, sooner or later. It’s the same logic by which people quit smoking AFTER they get cancer.

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    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
    In my previous comment I wasn't suggesting that KenH is a chest-thumper or a fist pumper, I was merely suggesting that Putin's non response might actually be the stronger response.
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  138. wayfarer says:
    @paullll
    This article is sheer nonsense from start to end. Well I gave up reading half way through, so maybe - to be completely fair - plain truth somehow broke through at the end.

    Look, international law is dead letter at this point and Snaker knows it. Might makes Right is the only international law at this point in world history (as so often before - always ends badly). Turkey, the US and Israel are all unremovable from Syria at this point, unless Russia confronts them, which it clearly will never do. Syria has already been largely carved up at this point and the assembled feasters are simply quarreling at the table. This includes Russia, of course. Iran will probably be excluded from the feast before too long.

    If Russia had really wanted to champion Syria's sovereignty in any real way, Putin would have provided the best of weapons, including AA, from the beginning to Assad. Once he stepped into the war he would have pushed on when there was a decisive advantage, bringing the war to a decisive close; but every time such an advantage was achieved, he called a truce so that the enemies of Assad could regroup, create new strategies and weapon up. Syria was always destined to be dinner and Assad to be dessert. By insincerely championing the Syrian government, Russia simply bought a seat at the table.

    The proxy forces have mostly been pushed aside now. The major players have taken off their masks and have taken seats at the table. Forks and knives are in play.

    The suggestion Snaker makes that Russia could provide AA to Syria at this point is obvious beyond obvious. What is equally obvious is that Russia will do no such thing. The logic for giving Assad the means to actually defend Syria was much stronger earlier in the war and Russia kept promising and kept delivering nothing.

    Right now Syria is being eaten alive and Assad is on his way to the plate. Erdogan seems to be the most frolicsome dancer at the feast, now kissing Putin, now kissing the US, more light on his feet than you'd think to look at him. What fun. What horrors unleashed. What grand lies told. The Hegemon stands a little taller every day as the Syrian endgame plays out and the next killing ground is prepared. Will it be Ukraine? Will it be Venezuela? Will it be Iran? Stay tuned.

    A banquet table, or a poker table where winner takes all.

    One can’t forget that wildcard, China.

    source: https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/News/2017/11/29/China-to-deploy-Night-Tigers-to-Syria

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  139. In the end Russia will be the winner. Russia has so much untapped resources that Russia can sit back and wait. In the end game Russia will have a little competition and it will be able set the prices of resources quite benevolently.

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  140. @NoseytheDuke
    "War should be avoided whenever possible. A wise leader conserves his military strength." Sun Tzu

    There's more... "Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win." (Which one best describes the ZUSA?)

    "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare."

    That last one is a bonus one because it's the one that even American chest-thumpers and fist pumpers (USA! USA! USA!) will come to accept, sooner or later. It's the same logic by which people quit smoking AFTER they get cancer.

    In my previous comment I wasn’t suggesting that KenH is a chest-thumper or a fist pumper, I was merely suggesting that Putin’s non response might actually be the stronger response.

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  141. Paulv says:
    @Haxo Angmark
    one way or another - first via ISIS and other Sunni terrorists, now via the Kurds - the Jews are determined to use Syria to spark a final White-on-White ('Murka vs. Russia) World Massacre. And unless Putin puts his foot down fairly soon, (((they))) are likely to get away with it.

    Such garbage. Israel is the US’s Japan of the middle east. Its not all about the Jews.

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    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
    In 1948 the State Department was strongly against recognising Israel.
    They understood the consequences.
    Truman did recognise on his own.
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  142. @polskijoe
    Putin did mention millions of dead/victims under Stalin and said its undeniable what happened.
    I think thats a good step.

    Its called “The Wall of Grief" or something.

    Certainly the Soviets did crimes and did murder millions. But many Westerners and neonazis/neoliberalcons exagerate them.

    Russians like Stalin because he stopped Hitler and did more than scum like Lenin/Trotsky. I believe around 50% of Russian view Stalin positively.
    Yet you will find many Russians also acknowledge he did crimes.

    Ive only seen hardcore Communists deny his crimes.

    Stalin and the USSR also did more than the US and UK combined to defeat Hitler- the Russians had no choice after being invaded. The Americans and Brits had to travel by plane and ship to get to the ground fighting.

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    • Replies: @jilles dykstra
    Hitler had no choice after Molotov's visit to Berlin.
    , @Anon
    Why did Germany so foolishly invade big Russia to open another front when its already engaging UK, France, US, etc. in war? Couldn't it wait for decisive winning, then turn back to SU when had enough refreshments?

    Is below true as described in some articles?

    UK Churchill actually thought Germany was getting too powerful to threaten its dominating imperialism, so need to be destroyed by war. UK & France then attacked Germany for its invasion to Pole, but not to SU for doing the same invasion to Pole on the other half.

    Then SU was invited to attack Germany together 3wks later. Hitler noticed that and decided to preemptive SU by invading it.

    US noticed if Japan will to attack SU on east front, SU could be forced to withdraw to defend. Then Germany could win the war. So it forced Japan into bombing Pearl Harbour to justify a war declaration, and allowed SU a full attacked to Germany, the most decisive factor for Germany defeat.

    These SOBs started the WW2, and rewritten the history to put blame on Hitler and suppressed Germany till this day. Every new Chancellor has to report to US to sign an undertaking to abide US allied, until 2099. All Germany military, MSM, security, people propaganda are under US allied control.
     
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  143. @Jesse James
    Stalin and the USSR also did more than the US and UK combined to defeat Hitler- the Russians had no choice after being invaded. The Americans and Brits had to travel by plane and ship to get to the ground fighting.

    Hitler had no choice after Molotov’s visit to Berlin.

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  144. @Paulv
    Such garbage. Israel is the US's Japan of the middle east. Its not all about the Jews.

    In 1948 the State Department was strongly against recognising Israel.
    They understood the consequences.
    Truman did recognise on his own.

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  145. @polskijoe
    Putin did mention millions of dead/victims under Stalin and said its undeniable what happened.
    I think thats a good step.

    Its called “The Wall of Grief" or something.

    Certainly the Soviets did crimes and did murder millions. But many Westerners and neonazis/neoliberalcons exagerate them.

    Russians like Stalin because he stopped Hitler and did more than scum like Lenin/Trotsky. I believe around 50% of Russian view Stalin positively.
    Yet you will find many Russians also acknowledge he did crimes.

    Ive only seen hardcore Communists deny his crimes.

    Read
    Morgan Philips Price (edited Tania Rose), ‘Dispatches from the Weimar Republic, Versailles and German Fascism’, London 1999
    starving Ukrainian families on railway stations, desperately trying to sell something in order to get food.

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  146. @Byrresheim
    Spot on.

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    While there is absolutely no need to copy present-day Germany's guilt-cult, a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists might actually help the Russians to find solutions and even draw present enemies over to them.

    (I am not going to waste my time answering to irate Russians. I am no enemy of that nation, to the contrary, but if you insist on shutting your eyes fast, don't complain about the occastional stubbed toe: it's completely unnecessary.)

    Are USA citizens aware of USA crimes ?

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    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    Anon from TN
    The term “aware” applies to no more than 5-10% of the US citizens. The rest can’t find any of the countries in the news on the map. School education is so dismal that most people sincerely believe that the world consists of three roughly equal parts: Main Street, out-of-town, and overseas. American classic is “How do you spell it correctly, Iran or Iraq?” It is no accident that CNN “journalists” placed Ukraine somewhere in Pakistan on air. Trump’s “Nambia” is another good example. Most people in the US don’t even know that Gambia or Zambia exist.
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  147. skrik says:
    @FB

    '...Err – surely the entire action, from AA-launch to ‘hit’ *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the ‘simple’ reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions?..'
     
    Not so...

    Here is some of the available information from the Israeli press...which I have already pointed to previously...

    '...The initial assessments of the event indicate that the plane was brought down while flying over Israel after a large volley of anti-aircraft missiles — at least five, but possibly more — were fired at it, Conricus said.

    The army said it was still investigating if the plane was brought down because it was operating at a high altitude to ensure its bombs were hitting their targets, which made it easier for Syrian air defenses to spot and fire at it, and failed to react quickly enough, as was reported in Israeli media outlets on Sunday...'
     
    I had said exactly that in my #74...

    '...we note the comment about the plane’s high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range…'
     
    Another report in a NYT op-ed piece by a well-known Israeli defense reporter...supports that scenario with additional detail...

    '...A minute and a half after the drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     
    By this account...the eight Israeli warplanes firing missiles into Syria happened 'simultaneously' with that drone being shot down...that means there was no time for a cross-border raid...

    So all indications are that Israel fired its missiles into Syria...as it has been doing for some time now...from outside of Syrian airspace...

    That still constitutes an act of war...and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace...

    and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace…

    That’s good to know, and thanks for the extended explanation – but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM – which is not to challenge your account in any way, just saying. The MSM gets their info, presumably, from the [even more questionable credibility] govt. and/or military, who have zero compunction to give us the true story. As all things these [sad] days, we have to evaluate everything. Soo, back to thanking you, and expect to see IDF pilots being a bit more circumspect vis-à-vis Syria?

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    • Replies: @FB

    '...but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM...'
     
    Not really...I pointed to this article by former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in the online journal Strategic Culture Foundation...which I believe is a Russian alternative media outfit...

    It is Crooke... a regular contributor to Strategic Culture... who relates the shootdown scenario as described by Alex Fishman in Hewbrew in the Israeli newspaper Ydioth Ahoronot...Fishman is one of Israel's top defense and intelligence writers and is well trusted by his IDF sources...

    I also quoted another Israeli defense journalist...also with the same paper...but writing an op-ed in the NYT...as well as an article in English in the Times of Israel...

    This is the best we can do in terms of getting close to the story...I don't know what you would suggest...?

    The Israeli press is actually a hell of a lot more honest than the US toilet paper...these guys are seasoned defense writers who are not going to pull any punches...

    In any case...their story makes sense...we don't have any statements from Syria that those jets actually entered Syrian airspace...and we know for a fact that the Israelis have been lobbing missiles into Syria from outside its airspace for months now...ever since that incident where Syria fired at Israeli jets bugging out back to Israel...

    And Israel thinking they were safe doing this lobbing from outside Syria and that the Syrians wouldn't fire on them unless they invaded their airspace...

    Well they were proven wrong...and the upshot is that Israel got a spanking...and if you read my follow on comments you would know that Israel had been planning full out war in retaliation...but Putin said 'Nyet'...

    So I think this covers it...I have devoted considerable time and effort to your issue...
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  148. renfro says:
    @FB
    Just an additional thought to tie up the loose end regarding the technicalities of that air engagement...

    Specifically regarding that second plane that managed to get away...

    We had heard unconfirmed reports that this was an F15...which was damaged enough to make an emergency landing...

    Obviously any info on this is not going to be made public and would be available only within the IAF community...if there is indeed any truth to the damage part...

    We do know from the Israeli press that this airplane was locked on but made good its escape...if it was indeed an F15 then that is a much more powerful airplane than the single-engine F16...especially that two-seat F16 version which main mission would be ground attack...with a weapons systems officer in the back seat...

    The F15 has a much higher thrust to weight ratio with its two big engines...and it would have a much better shot at escaping a SAM than an F16...

    But in the end it all comes down to the guy sitting in the driver's seat...even with very little warning of an incoming shot...making the right move in a split second is often the difference...

    Really appreciate you sharing your expertise with us…good job!

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    • Replies: @FB
    Thanks Renfro...glad the info was interesting and possibly of some use...
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  149. mcohen says:

    The oil and gas dispute in the med between israel and lebanon is starting to heat up with israel refusing russian “assistance” to market its oil and gas citing deals it has with the us.if israel turns into another vietnam with the big powers fighting over resources then i fear that a regional war will not turn out well for syria and lebanon.
    Obviously a deal to force israel to cede by trumps us government will be a stab in the back for israel.one has to wonder how long israel can cope with the present war of attrition and whether jews worldwide will have to step up and defend israel on the battlefield.that time is approaching and i urge jews to consider their options.

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  150. yurivku says:
    @Sergey Krieger
    Emotionally, Andrei , I am with Yuri, but if emotions removed I have to agree with you. However, I do think it is important not to overplay patience thing. Timing of well placed punch is also important and I do wonder is there will be will to act when time is right.

    Well, Andrei did not convince me. All his arguments are well known it’s still Putin’s ( and Sun Tzu -) ) clever plan of war. I’m sure that it’s time to put the end of this creeping attack which US, having no resistance are committing, going more and more close to the point of no return.

    But because we (me and Andrei) already thrown all our cards on the desktop – I have no reason to repeat. Now the future will show everything and I don’t think we’ll have to wait long …

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  151. hunor says:
    @Haxo Angmark
    one way or another - first via ISIS and other Sunni terrorists, now via the Kurds - the Jews are determined to use Syria to spark a final White-on-White ('Murka vs. Russia) World Massacre. And unless Putin puts his foot down fairly soon, (((they))) are likely to get away with it.

    Bingo that is the endgame, eliminate the capable goyim , and declare NWO.

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  152. yurivku says:
    @AnonFromTN
    Anon from TN
    You are right, Russian troops were in Crimea by Russian-Ukrainian bilateral agreement, and an overwhelming majority of Crimea residents (more than 80%, as was reluctantly acknowledged by Gallup and German company GfK, based on the polls they conducted after the referendum) wanted to join Russia. In fact, Crimea tried to get out of Ukraine ever since the breakup of the USSR in 1991. As Crimeans put it, in 2014 Russia did not betray them. Of course, there was no violence in Crimea: most people saw Russian solders as liberators. Then again, the situation was similar in Ossetia and Abkhazia: most people saw Georgians as occupiers and Russians as liberators, especially after Georgian troops started the war by shelling Tskhinval (Georgians called it Tskhinvali, which Ossetians saw as one of many affronts) and shooting civilians there.
    What I meant by smearing over the wall in Crimea is that more than 80% of the Ukrainian army personnel stationed in Crimea also switched sides and joined the Russian Army. Ukrainian politicians still feel hurt by this, inventing all sorts of implausible lies.

    That’s true. Know it well having relatives in Crimea.

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    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    Anon from TN
    I know people in Crimea, too. Besides, I visited it in 2015. What’s more, I have friends and relatives in many parts of Ukraine, in Lvov, Kiev, Lugansk (Lugansk People's Republic now), Kharkov region, etc. Sane people in Ukraine know that Crimea never was Ukrainian and never will be.
    There is a popular joke in Ukraine: “We were told that when Putin comes everything will come crashing down. Everything came crashing down, but where is Putin?”
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  153. yurivku says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    Facepalm.

    Data-fusion was developed for the averaging of heterogeneous sensors, from radar to optronics, and is profoundly mentioned in Alberts and Garstka large work on Net Centric Warfare.

    http://www.dodccrp.org/files/Alberts_NCW.pdf

    To start with page 144 and table on Sensor Network. Page 151 (Figure. 27) gives a P distribution. It was 20 + years ago.

    For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses and understanding that my English is not good enough to describe such complex technical thing – I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

    I can assume that it was modified that way, but knowing well its internal structure I don’t beleive it.
    S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.

    For S-300, s-400 yes, they get periodical trajectory corrections from phase radar and such story could be truethful.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge
     
    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied--but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information and:

    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

     
    Most likely.

    So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.
     
    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.
    , @FB

    '...For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses...'

     

    What's your problem...?

    I don't remember ever even addressing you...I was responding to Avery in my #112...and I am only ever rude and aggressive with the neo-Nazis here...

    '...S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear...'
     
    Well...since you are so smart...why don't you clear that up for us...?

    '...I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago...'
     
    Fine...that's your opinion...and you back that up with what exactly...?

    In any case...I did not claim that data fusion was definitely involved here...I said this...

    '...So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly ‘obsolete’ S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted…and at quite an impressive range…'
     
    And even before offering this explanation...I prefaced it as a 'prospective' technique...

    Unlike yourself...I adhere strictly to the scientific method...ie rely only on known facts...and present anything that is not a known fact as merely a possibility...

    '...S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch...'
     
    Any SAM missile can be launched ballistically...ie without any radar guidance whatsoever...the Serbs made hundreds of ballistic barrages from their 1950s era S125...and quite effectively...denying certain flight routes to the attacking aircraft...while not emitting radio signals and giving away their location...

    I also mentioned this fact...

    '...Further evolution of the S-300P design took place between 1995 and 1997, yielding the S-300PMU2/SA-10E Favorit system, later redesignated SA-20 Gargoyle, intended to compete directly against the Antey S-300V and Patriot PAC-2/3 systems as an Anti-Ballistic Missile system.

    The Favorit incorporates incrementally upgraded 30N6E2 Tomb Stone engagement radar.

    The Favorit's new command post has the capability to control S-300PMU / SA-10, S-300PMU1 / SA-20 batteries, and also S-200VE/SA-5 Gammon batteries, relaying coordinates and commands to the 5N62VE Square Pair guidance and illumination radar...'
     
    We can safely assume that subsequent generations have only increased these capabilities...

    We also know this fact...

    '...Today, a unified integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems.

    All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     
    ...Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...

    So we know that Russian radars are networked in Syria...and we know that the modern S300/400 system can command the S200 batteries...

    But you insist on arguing that the S200 is only able to operate as a standalone system as in 30 years ago...

    I do not know...nor does anyone outside the technical IADS operators in Syria...how exactly these various systems have been interlinked...and what operation procedures are possible...

    So we certainly cannot state with confidence what you said about the S200 not being able to lock at any point after launch...

    They are being controlled by the S300/400 command post...so you and anyone else is sepculating 100 percent when you say things with flat certainty...

    In any case any missile shot may lose lock at any time during flight and subsequently regain it...it depends on the proficiency of the operator...

    All we know is the result...S200 rockets took down one F16...apparently with little prior warning...[again...please explain that with your own theory] ...

    And the second plane targeted was reportedly also hit...a very good result...and this at quite long range...

    So those results speak of a very effective SAM combat performance...a kill percentage of 50 percent...not even counting the second damaged plane...which could well be written off for all we know...

    And this against very good Israeli pilots...flying equipment with sophisticated warning and ECM...
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  154. Randal says:
    @FB
    A significant development today on the Afrin front that was not totally unexpected...

    In my #30...I had said this...

    '...So the idea of the Turks overrunning Afrin is very dangerous…there are constant reports and rumors that the Afrin Kurds are on the brink of coming to terms with the SAA so the SAA can come in and proclaim Syrian sovereignty over the area…

    In this scenario…backed by Russian diplomatic and military guarantees…the Turks would have no choice but to retreat…their raison d’etre would be gone if the Kurdish Afrin is in the Syrian fold…'
     
    Well...now we have reports that this deal has been reached...and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours...

    A spokesman for the Kurdish PYD...the political wing of the YPG...said this...

    '...We are urging the Syrian army to come to protest the Syrian borders from the Turkish occupation. Afrin is part of Syria, that’s why we have called on the army to stand on guard of the border...

    We are calling on the army to help, because we’d love to preserve a unified Syria, as Turkey is seeking to annex the Syrian territories and make them part of its land, like it was with Aleksandretta sanjak [during the Ottoman Empire]...'
     
    This is another huge development...

    We see this coming on the heels of Tillerson's visit to Ankara...where the Kurds had surely been hoping that Tillerson would have made some kind of deal with Erdogan to back off on the Afrin invasion...

    That never happened...surprise surprise...

    The Afrin Kurds clearly saw that the sellout was complete...they were being thrown to the Turkish wolves by their 'buddy' USA...

    Now the SDF-held Afrin region is being reintegrated into Syria...

    This is what happens when the US insists on pissing into the wind...

    This Afrin sellout will also not go unnoticed by the Kurds in Manbij and elsewhere throughout the SDF held area east of the Euphrates...

    It only illustrates the sheer and utter futility of the US position...

    Really the Turks are much more dangerous right now...if they succeed in taking over Afrin it would be a disaster...but that now seems more remote than ever...

    We must ask...is it really a coincidence that Erdogan launched this latest invasion of Syrian territory right at the same moment in time when the Turkish backed terrorists in Idlib are getting pasted by the SAA and Russian aviation...?

    I hardly think so...

    But here we see that all the stars are lining up now in Syria's favor...the Idlib rats are getting wiped out...The Turks have made little progress in Afrin...and now as the SAA [supported by Russia] steps in to calm that down...the whole Turkish 'Olive Branch' will just be so much kindling for the fire...

    At the same time we have seen Israel reigned in by a firm and resolute Putin...

    I had quoted from this NYT op-ed in my previous technical posts...but the political dimension here is truly revealing...

    '...The response to the downing of the Israeli jet was intended to be a lot more violent.

    Israel has long maintained contingency plans for a huge offensive operation in Syria. On Saturday, the generals took them out of the drawer. But the Iranians and the Syrians, along with their Lebanese ally Hezbollah, realized that something like that was in the offing, and let it be known that they would not let it happen without responding. The Israelis heard this, but were not deterred. The Israel Defense Forces went on to a war footing.

    It soon became clear, though, who is calling the shots.

    The Israeli bombardments of the air base had been dangerously close to Russian forces.

    A furious phone call on Saturday morning from President Vladimir Putin of Russia was enough to make Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel cancel the plans...'
     
    Let there be no doubt who is calling the shots...and his name starts with VVP...

    Well…now we have reports that this deal has been reached…and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours…

    I was rather sceptical of this when you suggested the other day that it would happen, so I’m somewhat surprised that it does seem to have come to pass (assuming deeds follow the words – not always the case in such matters).

    The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east. The risk for the Syrians is that they now get locked into conflict with the Turks in Afrin while the US stays cosily embedded with the Kurds further east.

    It might be that they have a wider deal with the Kurds that involves the expulsion of US influence, but this seems unlikely. I doubt the Kurds in Afrin were yet desperate enough to agree to that, except perhaps on some future “never never” basis whereby they’d kick out the Yanks if and when the Syrians have shown they can successfully see off the Turks. But why trust the Kurds? Once the Turks are out of Afrin, what leverage would the Syrians have any more over the SDF Kurds?

    Surely the best approach would be to let the Kurds in Afrin stew and the conflict with the Turks deepen. Show the Turks out of Idlib but let them sit in Afrin until the Kurds generally are desperate enough to come to proper terms involving the wholesale expulsion of US forces and influence. If to the contrary the Syrians are willing to give up the “Turkish threat” leverage with the Kurds so soon, then it likely means they are confident that they can force the US out by other means probably involving putting pressure on them on the ground.

    Time will tell.

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    • Replies: @FB

    '...The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east...'
     
    That's the problem right there...

    Do we actually know that the Turks ever had any intention of taking their fight against the SDF further east...or was this just bluff and bluster...?

    What we do know for a fact is that Erdogan has been openly touting his plan for resettling Afrin with its 'rightful owners'...these presumably being the several million jihadist-symp0athizer 'refugees' sitting in Turkey...

    I pointed earlier to this excellent article...

    Turkey Establishing Long-Sought US “Safe Haven” in Northern Syria...

    This would be a nightmare scenario for Syria...as the Turks would never leave especially once they have a popular base there of Salafist-supporting public resettled there...

    Look at what is happening in the area between Afrin and Manbij which Turkey took over during its 'Operation Euphrates Shield'...the schools are teaching the kids Turkish...the post office and other public services us Turkish as the official language etc...

    We recall that Erdogan started Euphrates Shield invasion of Syria right after the publicized kiss and make up with Putin...

    I seriously doubt Putin green-lighted this invasion...but whatever deal they made...having to do with bringing Turkey into the Astana process...which is a genuine diplomatic win for Putin and Syria...Erdog took maximum advantage...and I believe he blindsided Putin with that invasion...

    There is a common but in my view misplaced idea that Turkey is now somehow aligned with Russia...or even somehow under Putin's control...

    This is very dangerous thinking...Erdogan still supports the head-choppers in Idlib and recently announced he will fund Ahrar al Sham and other terrorist groups that used to receive US bucks...but were cut off last December...

    Bringing the Afrin Kurds into the Syrian tent is a very good thing...

    As for what's going to happen going forward with the rest of the SDF controlled area where the US is calling the shots...well time will tell as you say...but clearly the US position there is unsustainable...that Kurdish enclave has no chance to be viable in any way...

    Also we must lrecall that most of the territory of the Euphrates Valley belongs to Arab tribes...not Kurds...who are concentrated mostly along the border with Turkey...across from their Kurdish brethern there...

    There is little love lost between those Arabs and the Kurds...and some are just barely in that SDF 'caolition' by name only...

    This actually includes the tribes who have control of the oil and gas fields...the Koniko [Conoco] field is being held by a tribe that has been in negotiation for quite a while with the Syrian gov't about handing over control of the field and gas infrastructure there...

    That handover was what was actually taking place when the US pulled that air strike massacre on the Al Bakari tribe...who were those pro-Syrian fighters mentioned in all the news reports...

    Bottom line is that taking Erdogan at his word is a fool's game...I personally have no doubt that he never intended to attack Manbij or anything further east...his troops are already right next to Manbij in that Euphrates Shield area...why didn't he hit at Manbij first...or at the same time...?

    It's BS...Erdogan taking Afrin and setting up a terrorist 'Safe Haven' there that would undermine the Syrian state is probably the only point of agreement between Turkey and the US...

    To think otherwise is naive...
    , @FB
    Further to my previous comment #170...

    Turkey is now backpedaling on its threats to invade Manbij...where the US troops are stationed...and conveniently after the Tillerson visit...

    '...Commenting on the possibility of a standoff with the US-backed Kurdish forces on the ground, he expressed hope that there would be no need to extend the offensive to Manbij, as all existing issues might be solved through dialogue...'
     
    Why am I not surprised...?

    At the same time Turkey has reacted furiously to the news of SAA entering Afrin...in that same sputnik article linked to above...

    So the picture is now crystal clear...

    1. The Turks and US are one the same page about Turkey taking over Afrin and creating a terrorist 'Safe Haven' that will undermine Syria...and possibly irreversibly fracture the country...with the Turks basically taking over northern Syria and staying forever...

    2. There will be no US-Turkey conflict in Manbij or anywhere else in Syria...ie the Turks and US are working hand in hand...only Putin is supposed to be the dummy...

    Well...the good thing is that it's not going to work...Putin is no dummy and he will yank Erdog's leash at the time of his choosing...just as he has yanked Netanyahoo's leash in the last few days...
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  155. @yurivku
    For FB's aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses and understanding that my English is not good enough to describe such complex technical thing - I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

    I can assume that it was modified that way, but knowing well its internal structure I don't beleive it.
    S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.

    For S-300, s-400 yes, they get periodical trajectory corrections from phase radar and such story could be truethful.

    For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge

    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied–but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information and:

    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

    Most likely.

    So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.

    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.

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  156. @FB

    '...Facepalm...'
     
    Yeah whatever Martyanov...

    Do you have an actual technical critique here...?

    Didn't think so...

    The point of my explanation...from which you no doubt learned more than you care to admit...was not the abstract origins of the concept of 'data fusion' in general...but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking...

    Anyway...thanks for the book link...

    Page 142 where it talks about radar data fusion...

    '...Sensor fusion enables measurements from two or more sensors to develop a composite track...

    The error ellipsoids that characterize the composite track converge much more rapidly to a level of accuracy that permits engagements (engagement quality awareness) when information from multiple sensors is available and utilized...'
     
    Basically what I explained quite nicely to the layman audience...

    Anyway...thanks for your helpful attitude...

    but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking…

    You obviously never heard of optronic channels which are present in any modern AD system nor, obviously, you understand how sensor networks work. Here is a basic illustration of all Eurofighter sensors involved in eliminating acquisition and targeting uncertainties–a main reason for evolution of sensor (data) fusion.

    Should you have known how Uspekh (1960s) or Legenda (late 1970s on) worked you wouldn’t write this amateur BS, and I quote:

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…

    You also, most likely, never heard of other target acquisition, targeting and firing solutions based on means OTHER than radar, such as Liana providing geographic coordinates (among other targeting (TzU)) based on “visuals”. In fact there are some photos of even Legenda from 1980s providing visual tie in with geographic coordinates (lambda, phi) on targets, such as Carrier Battle Group. And, yes, I never-never dealt in my life with sensor fusion.;-) Like absolutely not, especially not on submarines which had and still do complexes which amount to, well, data fusion. I can even give you a hint–they give you uncertainties and probabilities, which, of course, you need to launch such things, among many, as Sea Launched Strategic Ballistic Missiles. But never mind, let’s say that you are right–sensor and data fusion was indeed created for “anti-stealth radar”. LOL.

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    • Replies: @FB
    Martyanov...your petulance is on full display...

    Like I said...do you actually have a technical critique on what I said about that air engagement...?

    If so let's hear it...otherwise stop wasting everyone's time with obscure nonsense that has nothing to do with the subject at hand...ie how those 'obsolete' S200s managed to sneak up on the Israeli jets...

    Maybe you would like to offer your explanation...here is your chance...we are all waiting to hear your massive expertise...

    As for what I said about data fusion...it is absolutely correct...


    '...The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…'
     
    That is 100 percent correct...please read those words...

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion...I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion...

    So stop your silly games...who could possibly take you seriously at this point...?

    You have an axe to grind with me because I debunked your silly article of several months ago where you claimed that the US would use a massive tomahawk salvo to knock out Russia's integrated air defense system in Syria...

    Something only a total amateur would say...not knowing a single thing about SEAD [suppression of enemy air defenses]...or how that works...

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion...many of which have been kind enough to say 'thanks'...

    You really should be ashamed of this childish behavior...

    , @Aedib
    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers, electrodes and data from laboratory analysis. Anyway, is cool to know that it is used as an anti-stealth tool. Your discussion and arguments are awesome and extremely interesting.
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  157. yurivku says:

    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied–but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information

    Well, it doesn’t matter actually. I and I did a big mistake in my 1st post when called s-200 as active homing system while it’s semi-active. A lot of time passed.
    But I was once in Kazakhstan where we did training fired on rocket targets twice, two SAMs on each target and did those grounded. My role was to check if SAM is ok befor launch it.

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians -).
    The speed of those targets were close to real, but I’m not sure about an effective cross section (or what the proper term is). Good trained team always hit the target with the 1st SAM and 2nd SAM usually hit on pieces of target.
    But now when everything changed I’m not sure of those capabilites of S-200 SAMs.

    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.

    Well maybe but I don’t know what SPO stands for.

    But actually my statement is quite different – just *it not a right way to endlessly retreat*.
    It’s a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.

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    • Replies: @yurivku

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians
     
    Probably I've put it badly - I meant that except Russians there were only Syrians.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    what SPO stands for.
     
    Sistema Passivnogo Obnaruzhenia. Including but not limited to "radiation" alerts.
    , @Randal

    It’s a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.
     
    Well for a start it would be useful to put the little yapping French poodle back into its box:

    French neocon tries to adopt American-style lawless militarism

    Macron said last May that the use of chemical weapons would represent a “red line”. In a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday expressed concern over signs that chlorine bombs had been used against civilians in Syria.

    “On chemical weapons, I set a red line and I reaffirm that red line,” Macron told reporters. “If we have proven evidence that chemical weapons proscribed in treaties are used, we will strike the place where they are made.”
     
    I hope Putin said straight out that French jets launching clearly illegal attacks on Syria in supposed response to supposed "chemical weapons use" will be shot down.

    Imo a public statement to that effect from Russia would have been beneficial. This idea that supposed chemical weapons uses and other "humanitarian" pretexts justify unilateral war needs to be stamped upon, unless the Russians have given up on it in the face of US lawlessness and are simply resigned to using it themselves when convenient.
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  158. yurivku says:
    @yurivku

    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied–but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information
     
    Well, it doesn't matter actually. I and I did a big mistake in my 1st post when called s-200 as active homing system while it's semi-active. A lot of time passed.
    But I was once in Kazakhstan where we did training fired on rocket targets twice, two SAMs on each target and did those grounded. My role was to check if SAM is ok befor launch it.

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians -).
    The speed of those targets were close to real, but I'm not sure about an effective cross section (or what the proper term is). Good trained team always hit the target with the 1st SAM and 2nd SAM usually hit on pieces of target.
    But now when everything changed I'm not sure of those capabilites of S-200 SAMs.

    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.
     
    Well maybe but I don't know what SPO stands for.

    But actually my statement is quite different - just *it not a right way to endlessly retreat*.
    It's a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians

    Probably I’ve put it badly – I meant that except Russians there were only Syrians.

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  159. @yurivku

    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied–but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information
     
    Well, it doesn't matter actually. I and I did a big mistake in my 1st post when called s-200 as active homing system while it's semi-active. A lot of time passed.
    But I was once in Kazakhstan where we did training fired on rocket targets twice, two SAMs on each target and did those grounded. My role was to check if SAM is ok befor launch it.

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians -).
    The speed of those targets were close to real, but I'm not sure about an effective cross section (or what the proper term is). Good trained team always hit the target with the 1st SAM and 2nd SAM usually hit on pieces of target.
    But now when everything changed I'm not sure of those capabilites of S-200 SAMs.

    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.
     
    Well maybe but I don't know what SPO stands for.

    But actually my statement is quite different - just *it not a right way to endlessly retreat*.
    It's a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.

    what SPO stands for.

    Sistema Passivnogo Obnaruzhenia. Including but not limited to “radiation” alerts.

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    • Replies: @yurivku
    Thanx, now I see why I did not find this abbreviation in English list.
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  160. skrik says:
    @FB

    '...Err – surely the entire action, from AA-launch to ‘hit’ *must* have taken place wholly *within* Syrian airspace, for the ‘simple’ reason that hitting an IDF warplane within Israeli airspace would cause all sorts of ructions?..'
     
    Not so...

    Here is some of the available information from the Israeli press...which I have already pointed to previously...

    '...The initial assessments of the event indicate that the plane was brought down while flying over Israel after a large volley of anti-aircraft missiles — at least five, but possibly more — were fired at it, Conricus said.

    The army said it was still investigating if the plane was brought down because it was operating at a high altitude to ensure its bombs were hitting their targets, which made it easier for Syrian air defenses to spot and fire at it, and failed to react quickly enough, as was reported in Israeli media outlets on Sunday...'
     
    I had said exactly that in my #74...

    '...we note the comment about the plane’s high altitude to make sure the missile it was lobbing into Syria obtained maximum range…'
     
    Another report in a NYT op-ed piece by a well-known Israeli defense reporter...supports that scenario with additional detail...

    '...A minute and a half after the drone entered Israeli airspace, an Israeli Air Force attack helicopter shot it out of the sky.

    Simultaneously, eight Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at the drone’s command and control center at Tiyas, blowing it up, along with the Iranians manning the center. (Iran has denied that its drone was shot down or that its troops were killed.)

    The Syrian military, allied with Iran, responded by firing surface-to-air missiles at the Israeli jets.

    The missiles locked onto two Israeli aircraft. One of these managed to evade the rockets, but the other was hit by fragments of the exploding missile. The two-man crew ejected and landed in Israeli territory. One of them was gravely wounded...'
     
    By this account...the eight Israeli warplanes firing missiles into Syria happened 'simultaneously' with that drone being shot down...that means there was no time for a cross-border raid...

    So all indications are that Israel fired its missiles into Syria...as it has been doing for some time now...from outside of Syrian airspace...

    That still constitutes an act of war...and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace...

    2nd bite: cui bono?

    IF the IDF was in Syrian airspace THEN they’d hardly [= never!] admit it, since that would unmistakably mean that they would be pleading guilty to aggression.

    Obviously, a big “NO, NO!”

    Sooo, they – and the corrupt&venal, Z-loving MSM+PFBCs – all say the same: The Z-missiles were shot from within Israel, and that’s where the Syrian AA hit them!

    Yeah; sounds about right. The next “sooo” is that the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace – and will do nothing – except perhaps show alleged bits of an alleged Iranian drone in the MSC?

    Oh, yeah! Right on! Go, Zs! – Directly into the dustbin of history…

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    • Replies: @RobinG
    "...... the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace – and will do nothing ...."

    Except that Israel bombed Gaza last week (after their jet loss), and no doubt are planning to 'mow the grass' again in the Spring.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jets-hit-gaza-after-overnight-rocket-attack/

    "Directly into the dustbin of history…" Well, a spiraling descent.
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  161. FB says:
    @skrik

    and Syria had every right to target those attacking planes in Israeli airspace…
     
    That's good to know, and thanks for the extended explanation - but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM - which is not to challenge your account in any way, just saying. The MSM gets their info, presumably, from the [even more questionable credibility] govt. and/or military, who have zero compunction to give us the true story. As all things these [sad] days, we have to evaluate everything. Soo, back to thanking you, and expect to see IDF pilots being a bit more circumspect vis-à-vis Syria?

    ‘…but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM…’

    Not really…I pointed to this article by former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in the online journal Strategic Culture Foundation…which I believe is a Russian alternative media outfit…

    It is Crooke… a regular contributor to Strategic Culture… who relates the shootdown scenario as described by Alex Fishman in Hewbrew in the Israeli newspaper Ydioth Ahoronot…Fishman is one of Israel’s top defense and intelligence writers and is well trusted by his IDF sources…

    I also quoted another Israeli defense journalist…also with the same paper…but writing an op-ed in the NYT…as well as an article in English in the Times of Israel…

    This is the best we can do in terms of getting close to the story…I don’t know what you would suggest…?

    The Israeli press is actually a hell of a lot more honest than the US toilet paper…these guys are seasoned defense writers who are not going to pull any punches…

    In any case…their story makes sense…we don’t have any statements from Syria that those jets actually entered Syrian airspace…and we know for a fact that the Israelis have been lobbing missiles into Syria from outside its airspace for months now…ever since that incident where Syria fired at Israeli jets bugging out back to Israel…

    And Israel thinking they were safe doing this lobbing from outside Syria and that the Syrians wouldn’t fire on them unless they invaded their airspace…

    Well they were proven wrong…and the upshot is that Israel got a spanking…and if you read my follow on comments you would know that Israel had been planning full out war in retaliation…but Putin said ‘Nyet’…

    So I think this covers it…I have devoted considerable time and effort to your issue…

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    • Replies: @skrik

    devoted considerable time and effort
     
    I agree and I am thankful, also for the bits of your oeuvre 'in here.' Meanwhile, I posted a '2nd bite' some hours ago.

    I think that you and I share something: "our collective search for the truth." thnx & rgds
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  162. There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.

    https://www.rt.com/news/419177-us-safety-zone-syria/

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.
     
    Depends on what you define as the end game.
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  163. FB says:
    @renfro
    Really appreciate you sharing your expertise with us...good job!

    Thanks Renfro…glad the info was interesting and possibly of some use…

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  164. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @yurivku
    That's true. Know it well having relatives in Crimea.

    Anon from TN
    I know people in Crimea, too. Besides, I visited it in 2015. What’s more, I have friends and relatives in many parts of Ukraine, in Lvov, Kiev, Lugansk (Lugansk People’s Republic now), Kharkov region, etc. Sane people in Ukraine know that Crimea never was Ukrainian and never will be.
    There is a popular joke in Ukraine: “We were told that when Putin comes everything will come crashing down. Everything came crashing down, but where is Putin?”

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    • Replies: @yurivku
    I with my family visited Crimea right after the liberation happened in 2014.And I shared this smell of freedom which was widely spread overthere this time. People were happy so were us.
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  165. AnonFromTN [AKA "Anon"] says:
    @jilles dykstra
    Are USA citizens aware of USA crimes ?

    Anon from TN
    The term “aware” applies to no more than 5-10% of the US citizens. The rest can’t find any of the countries in the news on the map. School education is so dismal that most people sincerely believe that the world consists of three roughly equal parts: Main Street, out-of-town, and overseas. American classic is “How do you spell it correctly, Iran or Iraq?” It is no accident that CNN “journalists” placed Ukraine somewhere in Pakistan on air. Trump’s “Nambia” is another good example. Most people in the US don’t even know that Gambia or Zambia exist.

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    • Replies: @Hippopotamusdrome


    Most people in the US don’t even know that Gambia or Zambia exist.
     
    LOL. I didn't either. After researching, I discovered Nambia, sorry, Zambia, is in Rhodesia.
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  166. @Ilyana_Rozumova
    There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.
    https://www.rt.com/news/419177-us-safety-zone-syria/

    There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.

    Depends on what you define as the end game.

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    • Replies: @yurivku
    I'm afraid she's using the generator of random sentences when commenting everything everywhere
    , @Ilyana_Rozumova
    I did decide not to engage in discussions on the site. And I am still faithful to this opinion.
    I was only enticing people to read that article with Lavrov's declaration.
    In my opinion we are back to square one. I was watching an interview with Brennon, formal CIA chef.
    He was quite worrying about one thing only. That was there is possibility of increasing oil prices and by that increasing the influence of Russia. We do not know many things,
    But my guess will be that the fracking for oil in US is not really fulfilling the projected expectations.
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  167. yurivku says:
    @AnonFromTN
    Anon from TN
    I know people in Crimea, too. Besides, I visited it in 2015. What’s more, I have friends and relatives in many parts of Ukraine, in Lvov, Kiev, Lugansk (Lugansk People's Republic now), Kharkov region, etc. Sane people in Ukraine know that Crimea never was Ukrainian and never will be.
    There is a popular joke in Ukraine: “We were told that when Putin comes everything will come crashing down. Everything came crashing down, but where is Putin?”

    I with my family visited Crimea right after the liberation happened in 2014.And I shared this smell of freedom which was widely spread overthere this time. People were happy so were us.

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  168. Talha says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Do you think the US may eventually end up in a Dien Bien Phu situation in Syria ?
    An isolated outpost dependent on air control, gradually being strangled by ground forces ?
     
    I am not Saker but you nailed it--this is precisely where it is all going.

    The French basically said; well that sucks. And packed it up and left.

    The question is, would we do the same? Reagan pulled the Marines out of Lebanon because he realized the craziness of the situation, but I’m not sure the people in charge of US policy know what the words “exit strategy” or “de-escalation” mean.

    It’s like someone walked into an insane asylum, left a pile of loaded weapons on the ground and proceeded to turn off the lights.

    Peace.

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    • Agree: RadicalCenter
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  169. FB says:
    @Randal

    Well…now we have reports that this deal has been reached…and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours…
     
    I was rather sceptical of this when you suggested the other day that it would happen, so I'm somewhat surprised that it does seem to have come to pass (assuming deeds follow the words - not always the case in such matters).

    The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east. The risk for the Syrians is that they now get locked into conflict with the Turks in Afrin while the US stays cosily embedded with the Kurds further east.

    It might be that they have a wider deal with the Kurds that involves the expulsion of US influence, but this seems unlikely. I doubt the Kurds in Afrin were yet desperate enough to agree to that, except perhaps on some future "never never" basis whereby they'd kick out the Yanks if and when the Syrians have shown they can successfully see off the Turks. But why trust the Kurds? Once the Turks are out of Afrin, what leverage would the Syrians have any more over the SDF Kurds?

    Surely the best approach would be to let the Kurds in Afrin stew and the conflict with the Turks deepen. Show the Turks out of Idlib but let them sit in Afrin until the Kurds generally are desperate enough to come to proper terms involving the wholesale expulsion of US forces and influence. If to the contrary the Syrians are willing to give up the "Turkish threat" leverage with the Kurds so soon, then it likely means they are confident that they can force the US out by other means probably involving putting pressure on them on the ground.

    Time will tell.

    ‘…The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east…

    That’s the problem right there…

    Do we actually know that the Turks ever had any intention of taking their fight against the SDF further east…or was this just bluff and bluster…?

    What we do know for a fact is that Erdogan has been openly touting his plan for resettling Afrin with its ‘rightful owners’…these presumably being the several million jihadist-symp0athizer ‘refugees’ sitting in Turkey…

    I pointed earlier to this excellent article…

    Turkey Establishing Long-Sought US “Safe Haven” in Northern Syria…

    This would be a nightmare scenario for Syria…as the Turks would never leave especially once they have a popular base there of Salafist-supporting public resettled there…

    Look at what is happening in the area between Afrin and Manbij which Turkey took over during its ‘Operation Euphrates Shield’…the schools are teaching the kids Turkish…the post office and other public services us Turkish as the official language etc…

    We recall that Erdogan started Euphrates Shield invasion of Syria right after the publicized kiss and make up with Putin…

    I seriously doubt Putin green-lighted this invasion…but whatever deal they made…having to do with bringing Turkey into the Astana process…which is a genuine diplomatic win for Putin and Syria…Erdog took maximum advantage…and I believe he blindsided Putin with that invasion…

    There is a common but in my view misplaced idea that Turkey is now somehow aligned with Russia…or even somehow under Putin’s control…

    This is very dangerous thinking…Erdogan still supports the head-choppers in Idlib and recently announced he will fund Ahrar al Sham and other terrorist groups that used to receive US bucks…but were cut off last December…

    Bringing the Afrin Kurds into the Syrian tent is a very good thing…

    As for what’s going to happen going forward with the rest of the SDF controlled area where the US is calling the shots…well time will tell as you say…but clearly the US position there is unsustainable…that Kurdish enclave has no chance to be viable in any way…

    Also we must lrecall that most of the territory of the Euphrates Valley belongs to Arab tribes…not Kurds…who are concentrated mostly along the border with Turkey…across from their Kurdish brethern there…

    There is little love lost between those Arabs and the Kurds…and some are just barely in that SDF ‘caolition’ by name only…

    This actually includes the tribes who have control of the oil and gas fields…the Koniko [Conoco] field is being held by a tribe that has been in negotiation for quite a while with the Syrian gov’t about handing over control of the field and gas infrastructure there…

    That handover was what was actually taking place when the US pulled that air strike massacre on the Al Bakari tribe…who were those pro-Syrian fighters mentioned in all the news reports…

    Bottom line is that taking Erdogan at his word is a fool’s game…I personally have no doubt that he never intended to attack Manbij or anything further east…his troops are already right next to Manbij in that Euphrates Shield area…why didn’t he hit at Manbij first…or at the same time…?

    It’s BS…Erdogan taking Afrin and setting up a terrorist ‘Safe Haven’ there that would undermine the Syrian state is probably the only point of agreement between Turkey and the US…

    To think otherwise is naive…

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  170. skrik says:
    @FB

    '...but I would like to point out that your quotes seem to be from the [questionable credibility] MSM...'
     
    Not really...I pointed to this article by former British diplomat Alistair Crooke in the online journal Strategic Culture Foundation...which I believe is a Russian alternative media outfit...

    It is Crooke... a regular contributor to Strategic Culture... who relates the shootdown scenario as described by Alex Fishman in Hewbrew in the Israeli newspaper Ydioth Ahoronot...Fishman is one of Israel's top defense and intelligence writers and is well trusted by his IDF sources...

    I also quoted another Israeli defense journalist...also with the same paper...but writing an op-ed in the NYT...as well as an article in English in the Times of Israel...

    This is the best we can do in terms of getting close to the story...I don't know what you would suggest...?

    The Israeli press is actually a hell of a lot more honest than the US toilet paper...these guys are seasoned defense writers who are not going to pull any punches...

    In any case...their story makes sense...we don't have any statements from Syria that those jets actually entered Syrian airspace...and we know for a fact that the Israelis have been lobbing missiles into Syria from outside its airspace for months now...ever since that incident where Syria fired at Israeli jets bugging out back to Israel...

    And Israel thinking they were safe doing this lobbing from outside Syria and that the Syrians wouldn't fire on them unless they invaded their airspace...

    Well they were proven wrong...and the upshot is that Israel got a spanking...and if you read my follow on comments you would know that Israel had been planning full out war in retaliation...but Putin said 'Nyet'...

    So I think this covers it...I have devoted considerable time and effort to your issue...

    devoted considerable time and effort

    I agree and I am thankful, also for the bits of your oeuvre ‘in here.’ Meanwhile, I posted a ’2nd bite’ some hours ago.

    I think that you and I share something: “our collective search for the truth.” thnx & rgds

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  171. yurivku says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.
     
    Depends on what you define as the end game.

    I’m afraid she’s using the generator of random sentences when commenting everything everywhere

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    Lol
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  172. FB says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking…

     

    You obviously never heard of optronic channels which are present in any modern AD system nor, obviously, you understand how sensor networks work. Here is a basic illustration of all Eurofighter sensors involved in eliminating acquisition and targeting uncertainties--a main reason for evolution of sensor (data) fusion.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Eurofighter_sensor_fusion.png

    Should you have known how Uspekh (1960s) or Legenda (late 1970s on) worked you wouldn't write this amateur BS, and I quote:

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    You also, most likely, never heard of other target acquisition, targeting and firing solutions based on means OTHER than radar, such as Liana providing geographic coordinates (among other targeting (TzU)) based on "visuals". In fact there are some photos of even Legenda from 1980s providing visual tie in with geographic coordinates (lambda, phi) on targets, such as Carrier Battle Group. And, yes, I never-never dealt in my life with sensor fusion.;-) Like absolutely not, especially not on submarines which had and still do complexes which amount to, well, data fusion. I can even give you a hint--they give you uncertainties and probabilities, which, of course, you need to launch such things, among many, as Sea Launched Strategic Ballistic Missiles. But never mind, let's say that you are right--sensor and data fusion was indeed created for "anti-stealth radar". LOL.

    Martyanov…your petulance is on full display…

    Like I said…do you actually have a technical critique on what I said about that air engagement…?

    If so let’s hear it…otherwise stop wasting everyone’s time with obscure nonsense that has nothing to do with the subject at hand…ie how those ‘obsolete’ S200s managed to sneak up on the Israeli jets…

    Maybe you would like to offer your explanation…here is your chance…we are all waiting to hear your massive expertise…

    As for what I said about data fusion…it is absolutely correct…

    ‘…The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…’

    That is 100 percent correct…please read those words…

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion…I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion…

    So stop your silly games…who could possibly take you seriously at this point…?

    You have an axe to grind with me because I debunked your silly article of several months ago where you claimed that the US would use a massive tomahawk salvo to knock out Russia’s integrated air defense system in Syria…

    Something only a total amateur would say…not knowing a single thing about SEAD [suppression of enemy air defenses]…or how that works…

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion…many of which have been kind enough to say ‘thanks’…

    You really should be ashamed of this childish behavior…

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion…I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion
     
    Really, but I think it is you who said that, surely not me, right? I quote you.

    ‘…The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…’
     
    I repeat again. Data Fusion technique has been developed decades before there ever was any Nebo-M and it has nothing, zero to do with the band-width or specific radar, since it is primarily signal processing and mathematics issue.

    Read attentively what data fusion is. Say from here, from one of the professionals:

    http://fusion.isif.org/proceedings/fusion99CD/C-148.pdf?

    I'll help you a bit by quoting this:


    Data fusion is very important and useful for target recognition and tracking. A system with multi-sensors can fuse data from different sensors to overcome the limitations in the system with single sensor, it can make use of the complementary and redundancy of data from different sensors to improve the precision and robustness of target recognition and tracking. Data fusion at characteristic level can combine characteristics from different sensors to improve the ability of target recognition
     
    In pure "radar" the so called "data fusion" is based on using different frequencies and ESM (Electronic Support Measures--such as providing targeting on "radiating" targets, passive) which are provided with the so called extrasystemic radar systems which have been in use since hell knows when. S-300 are designed as such and once digital processing capabilities reached ability to process large data arrays--around mid 1980s--every single AD system in Russia was effectively moved into data fusion paradigm. Nebo-M is not "Anti-stealth" it is just by the nature of its design it is capable to cover a huge array of targets, including hypersonic and ballistic ones, be them stealth or not. But so is S-400 is "anti-stealth", and so is S-300. All modern radar, and sonar, and optronic systems are developed on "data fusion" principles everywhere--from ships to aircraft, to Air Defense. Most modern specifically Russian systems since late 1980s are created with this "data fusion" and extrasystemic capability which is a defining feature of whole Russian Air Defense. So all major Russian AD complexes are by definition "anti-stealth" (well, Nebo in particular is also scanning the near space) and "data fusion" capable since use multiple sensors, from variety of band-widths from different emitters-receivers, to ESM and other sensor capability.

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion…many of which have been kind enough to say ‘thanks’…
     
    I am not "sniping" at you but you certainly create a lot of informational noise with a lot of this noise being a fanboy copy-paste from different open pop-sources with much of it being booklets for arms exhibitions. But I think you don't get it.

    Something only a total amateur
     
    I agree, I am a total amateur. ;-)

    P.S. Google Protivnik GE.

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  173. yurivku says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    what SPO stands for.
     
    Sistema Passivnogo Obnaruzhenia. Including but not limited to "radiation" alerts.

    Thanx, now I see why I did not find this abbreviation in English list.

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  174. RobinG says:
    @skrik
    2nd bite: cui bono?

    IF the IDF was in Syrian airspace THEN they'd hardly [= never!] admit it, since that would unmistakably mean that they would be pleading guilty to aggression.

    Obviously, a big "NO, NO!"

    Sooo, they - and the corrupt&venal, Z-loving MSM+PFBCs - all say the same: The Z-missiles were shot from within Israel, and that's where the Syrian AA hit them!

    Yeah; sounds about right. The next "sooo" is that the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace - and will do nothing - except perhaps show alleged bits of an alleged Iranian drone in the MSC?

    Oh, yeah! Right on! Go, Zs! - Directly into the dustbin of history...

    “…… the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace – and will do nothing ….”

    Except that Israel bombed Gaza last week (after their jet loss), and no doubt are planning to ‘mow the grass’ again in the Spring.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jets-hit-gaza-after-overnight-rocket-attack/

    “Directly into the dustbin of history…” Well, a spiraling descent.

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    • Replies: @skrik

    Except that Israel bombed Gaza last week (after their jet loss),
     
    Yeah, well. OK; I 'forgot' that Gaza doesn't have an AA system like Syria now does. In fact, as most of us know, Gaza is pretty-much - err, totally disarmed [apart from a few home-made 'penny' rockets, say]. So the Zs can attack at will, which they do. The BIG Q is why the rest of the world lets the Zs get away with it? - Mass murder to steal Lebensraum, for which mainly the US hanged many German 'commanders' after WW2? After which, many German scientists and technicians were moved to the US (Operation Paper Clip). After which, the US continued to build the world's greatest military, which could stomp on the Zs any day of the week [to protect freedom and democracy, don't you know?] But they don't; rather, they attack and destroy the Zs' enemies, like Syria, say, or Libya, altogether the WC7in5, say. So the world's greatest military [= US], and the world's bravest, most honourable military [= Zs], team up to mass-murder basically helpless, innocent people, to steal those innocents' resources, or just to be 'hegemons' [= biggest dicks on the block?]

    Great! That 'spiraling' could rattle its dags. rgds

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  175. @yurivku
    I'm afraid she's using the generator of random sentences when commenting everything everywhere

    Lol

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  176. FB says:
    @yurivku
    For FB's aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses and understanding that my English is not good enough to describe such complex technical thing - I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago. S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch.

    I can assume that it was modified that way, but knowing well its internal structure I don't beleive it.
    S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear.

    For S-300, s-400 yes, they get periodical trajectory corrections from phase radar and such story could be truethful.

    ‘…For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses…’

    What’s your problem…?

    I don’t remember ever even addressing you…I was responding to Avery in my #112…and I am only ever rude and aggressive with the neo-Nazis here…

    ‘…S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear…’

    Well…since you are so smart…why don’t you clear that up for us…?

    ‘…I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago…’

    Fine…that’s your opinion…and you back that up with what exactly…?

    In any case…I did not claim that data fusion was definitely involved here…I said this…

    ‘…So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly ‘obsolete’ S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted…and at quite an impressive range…’

    And even before offering this explanation…I prefaced it as a ‘prospective’ technique…

    Unlike yourself…I adhere strictly to the scientific method…ie rely only on known facts…and present anything that is not a known fact as merely a possibility

    ‘…S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch…’

    Any SAM missile can be launched ballistically…ie without any radar guidance whatsoever…the Serbs made hundreds of ballistic barrages from their 1950s era S125…and quite effectively…denying certain flight routes to the attacking aircraft…while not emitting radio signals and giving away their location…

    I also mentioned this fact…

    ‘…Further evolution of the S-300P design took place between 1995 and 1997, yielding the S-300PMU2/SA-10E Favorit system, later redesignated SA-20 Gargoyle, intended to compete directly against the Antey S-300V and Patriot PAC-2/3 systems as an Anti-Ballistic Missile system.

    The Favorit incorporates incrementally upgraded 30N6E2 Tomb Stone engagement radar.

    The Favorit’s new command post has the capability to control S-300PMU / SA-10, S-300PMU1 / SA-20 batteries, and also S-200VE/SA-5 Gammon batteries, relaying coordinates and commands to the 5N62VE Square Pair guidance and illumination radar…’

    We can safely assume that subsequent generations have only increased these capabilities…

    We also know this fact…

    ‘…Today, a unified integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems.

    All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping…’

    …Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov…

    So we know that Russian radars are networked in Syria…and we know that the modern S300/400 system can command the S200 batteries…

    But you insist on arguing that the S200 is only able to operate as a standalone system as in 30 years ago…

    I do not know…nor does anyone outside the technical IADS operators in Syria…how exactly these various systems have been interlinked…and what operation procedures are possible…

    So we certainly cannot state with confidence what you said about the S200 not being able to lock at any point after launch…

    They are being controlled by the S300/400 command post…so you and anyone else is sepculating 100 percent when you say things with flat certainty…

    In any case any missile shot may lose lock at any time during flight and subsequently regain it…it depends on the proficiency of the operator…

    All we know is the result…S200 rockets took down one F16…apparently with little prior warning…[again...please explain that with your own theory] …

    And the second plane targeted was reportedly also hit…a very good result…and this at quite long range…

    So those results speak of a very effective SAM combat performance…a kill percentage of 50 percent…not even counting the second damaged plane…which could well be written off for all we know…

    And this against very good Israeli pilots…flying equipment with sophisticated warning and ECM…

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    What’s your problem…? I don’t remember ever even addressing you
     
    Did you communicate with holy spirit here?

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/#comment-2209053

    I can see why you may not remember things but you sure as hell tried to teach former AD professional and former Baumanka student (you probably can not even grasp what it is) by pasting a shit load of pop-sci facts and a bunch of your, mostly, incompetent speculations. I find it not only being problematic but, to be frank, really funny too.
    , @yurivku

    ‘…For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses…’

    What’s your problem…?

    I don’t remember ever even addressing you…I was responding to Avery in my #112…and I am only ever rude and aggressive with the neo-Nazis here…

     

    I have no problems. But you are still proving your specific style of communications. I'm not a Nazy you know, I'm granson of soldier who ended war in Berlin, son of Soviet officer and officer in reserve myself. So it's no reasons for you to be rude. But I'm not in a claim at all.
    As for Nazis, I'm actually going crazy myself when see some here.

    My knowledge of AA/AD is limited to S-200 and very 1st modification of S-300 and I did not refresh it for last 30 years. So I can be mistaken in some details. Sorry in advance. But (knowing of its architecture) what I am sure of:
    - S-200 SAM can't be ruled by S-300 radar, at most S-300 can supply S-200 radar with coordinates of target(s), but after that all the job S-200 radar and its SAM will do;
    what I've found by your link - "The Favorit's new command post has the capability to control S-300PMU / SA-10, S-300PMU1 / SA-20 batteries, and also S-200VE/SA-5 Gammon batteries, relaying coordinates and commands to the 5N62VE Square Pair guidance and illumination radar. " that seems to confirm my assumptions.

    - no "data flushing" stuff can be used in S-200 complex
    - having in mind that S-200 radar should illuminate target all the time until it's hit - we can see high requrements to power of illumination and a danger for S-200 radar itself. 'Cause antiradar missiles have range equal or even bigger than range of S-200 SAM (ex. Delilah)

    Do you understand how S-200 SAM is starting? 1st of all operator manually points SAM to one of targets, then homing head says "ready to lock", then operator press "Lock" button (АС - автосопровождение) and only after that SAM is ready to launch. If it loses target and unable to find it in some time - it's going to selfdestruct (AFAIR).
    How, do you suppose, SAM can lock target on its way ?
    Idea to fire SAM as just a ballistic shell seems to me ... well, strange and unreal.


    ‘…S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear…’

    Well…since you are so smart…why don’t you clear that up for us…?
     
    Look, unlike you I'm not trying to look smart, actually I'm trying to find answers on my questions and explain what I'm trying to say. From your posts I've found some information new to me (thank you) and confirmed some of my mistakes (sorry for that).

    As for this question I see only electronic warfare which said to be quite good in Russia and a factor of surprise for Israelis pilots.

    But getting back to very first of my post, I said:
    - S-200 is obsolete complex (but yes it can in some circumstances do its work) and Putin has to supply the new ones. After all it's very sensitive itself for threats from anti-radar missiles and should be defended by Pantsirs (but it's true for S-300, S-400 also in lesser degree).

    You said

    All we know is the result…S200 rockets took down one F16…apparently with little prior warning…[again...please explain that with your own theory] …

    And the second plane targeted was reportedly also hit…a very good result…and this at quite long range…

    So those results speak of a very effective SAM combat performance…a kill percentage of 50 percent…not even counting the second damaged plane…which could well be written off for all we know…
     
    All we know...it's like Russian meddling in US elections - everybody knows, but nobody can't prove.
    But I can prove that some US citizens are meddling in our election right here at UNZ -) (see my posts on our elections).

    All we know is that one plane was downed by some weapon that's it. Everything except it are speculations. Was it S-200? Who knows. Was F-15 damaged? Who knows. How many jets were under attack? Same. What damage AA infrastructure suffered? We don't know.
    So I don't know where you get your 50% neither.
    For you probably everything is clear, for me it's not. I'd be glad to hear that my lovely S-200 SAMs big and awkward built on electronic lamps (sic!!!) are good enough to fight with F-16, F-15 and probably F-35, but it needs to be proven.
    So that's it .
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  177. @FB
    Martyanov...your petulance is on full display...

    Like I said...do you actually have a technical critique on what I said about that air engagement...?

    If so let's hear it...otherwise stop wasting everyone's time with obscure nonsense that has nothing to do with the subject at hand...ie how those 'obsolete' S200s managed to sneak up on the Israeli jets...

    Maybe you would like to offer your explanation...here is your chance...we are all waiting to hear your massive expertise...

    As for what I said about data fusion...it is absolutely correct...


    '...The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…'
     
    That is 100 percent correct...please read those words...

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion...I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion...

    So stop your silly games...who could possibly take you seriously at this point...?

    You have an axe to grind with me because I debunked your silly article of several months ago where you claimed that the US would use a massive tomahawk salvo to knock out Russia's integrated air defense system in Syria...

    Something only a total amateur would say...not knowing a single thing about SEAD [suppression of enemy air defenses]...or how that works...

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion...many of which have been kind enough to say 'thanks'...

    You really should be ashamed of this childish behavior...

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion…I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion

    Really, but I think it is you who said that, surely not me, right? I quote you.

    ‘…The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…’

    I repeat again. Data Fusion technique has been developed decades before there ever was any Nebo-M and it has nothing, zero to do with the band-width or specific radar, since it is primarily signal processing and mathematics issue.

    Read attentively what data fusion is. Say from here, from one of the professionals:

    http://fusion.isif.org/proceedings/fusion99CD/C-148.pdf?

    I’ll help you a bit by quoting this:

    Data fusion is very important and useful for target recognition and tracking. A system with multi-sensors can fuse data from different sensors to overcome the limitations in the system with single sensor, it can make use of the complementary and redundancy of data from different sensors to improve the precision and robustness of target recognition and tracking. Data fusion at characteristic level can combine characteristics from different sensors to improve the ability of target recognition

    In pure “radar” the so called “data fusion” is based on using different frequencies and ESM (Electronic Support Measures–such as providing targeting on “radiating” targets, passive) which are provided with the so called extrasystemic radar systems which have been in use since hell knows when. S-300 are designed as such and once digital processing capabilities reached ability to process large data arrays–around mid 1980s–every single AD system in Russia was effectively moved into data fusion paradigm. Nebo-M is not “Anti-stealth” it is just by the nature of its design it is capable to cover a huge array of targets, including hypersonic and ballistic ones, be them stealth or not. But so is S-400 is “anti-stealth”, and so is S-300. All modern radar, and sonar, and optronic systems are developed on “data fusion” principles everywhere–from ships to aircraft, to Air Defense. Most modern specifically Russian systems since late 1980s are created with this “data fusion” and extrasystemic capability which is a defining feature of whole Russian Air Defense. So all major Russian AD complexes are by definition “anti-stealth” (well, Nebo in particular is also scanning the near space) and “data fusion” capable since use multiple sensors, from variety of band-widths from different emitters-receivers, to ESM and other sensor capability.

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion…many of which have been kind enough to say ‘thanks’…

    I am not “sniping” at you but you certainly create a lot of informational noise with a lot of this noise being a fanboy copy-paste from different open pop-sources with much of it being booklets for arms exhibitions. But I think you don’t get it.

    Something only a total amateur

    I agree, I am a total amateur. ;-)

    P.S. Google Protivnik GE.

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    • Replies: @FB
    Look Martyanov...

    I don't have time to play games with a dweeb...

    I challenged you to come up with a technical critique on several occasions but you have failed to do so...

    Instead you respond with all kinds of 'chaff' that is meaningless gibberish...this is what I expect from a person of your caliber...

    Your statement about all networked sensor systems...including radar...being by definition 'data fusion' is so vague as to be meaningless...

    You have diverted my discussion into a confusing morass where you want to argue word definitions...well I don't want to play such silly games...

    My whole point was to try to tackle a technical problem of interest to readers here...how did the 'obsolete' Syrian S200 manage to sneak up on a top-notch Israeli pilot flying very good equipment...?

    Your histrionics here have not advanced that discussion by one millimeter...

    My mention of the Nebo multiband radar complex was done for a specific purpose...to illustrate how Russian networking doctrine can operate very flexibly in terms of guiding the missile to its target...

    According to Dr. Karlo Kopp...an acknowledged radar expert...in his technical analysis of the Nebo SVU...


    '...the [Nebo] radar has the required performance to cue an X-band 30N6E series engagement radar.

    If these systems are all networked following current Russian practice, the battery's 54K6E series command post can launch the missiles remotely and datalink them to the aimpoint through most of the flight trajectory.

    When near enough, the missile switches to its own terminal homing seeker to complete the engagement...'
     

    That is exactly the possible scenario I described...in my #112...

    '...It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept…but the implication is obvious…using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together…it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away…'
     
    And...

    '...The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment…it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured…and the reaction time is minimized…'
     
    Again...I am not saying that this is what happened here...but I am confirming what is known as fact...as stated in Kopp's comment above...and that a similar technique could have been used here...

    As for the Protivnik GE...please stop wasting time and making useless diversions...

    This L-band 3D surveillance radar was introduced in 1999...but has since been evolved into an AESA [active electronically scanned array] model that is part of the Nebo M complex I described to begin with...and is seen here in the foreground...

    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg

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  178. @Andrei Martyanov

    There is possibility that end game in Syria has already started.
     
    Depends on what you define as the end game.

    I did decide not to engage in discussions on the site. And I am still faithful to this opinion.
    I was only enticing people to read that article with Lavrov’s declaration.
    In my opinion we are back to square one. I was watching an interview with Brennon, formal CIA chef.
    He was quite worrying about one thing only. That was there is possibility of increasing oil prices and by that increasing the influence of Russia. We do not know many things,
    But my guess will be that the fracking for oil in US is not really fulfilling the projected expectations.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    Fracking is succeeding in some important & measurable ways. The USA is on track to surpass the Saudi scum, soon, as biggest oil exporter in the world. North America (USA and Canada) plausibly could become net oil-exporting within the next decade or so. (Not to mention the good-paying long-term jobs created by fracking rather than buying all that additional oil/gas from abroad)

    With severe and longstanding drought in much of California and the southwest, though, I am not sure that we can afford to allow such an increased use of water, at least in those regions. I need to learn more about it.

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  179. @FB

    '...For FB’s aggressive and rude style of bringing knowledge to dark masses...'

     

    What's your problem...?

    I don't remember ever even addressing you...I was responding to Avery in my #112...and I am only ever rude and aggressive with the neo-Nazis here...

    '...S-200 all the way to target should use the radar signal reflected from the target. So question why Israelis did not notice it stil is unclear...'
     
    Well...since you are so smart...why don't you clear that up for us...?

    '...I would say that all this data fusion stuff probably has nothing to do with S-200.
    At least it has not 25-30 year ago...'
     
    Fine...that's your opinion...and you back that up with what exactly...?

    In any case...I did not claim that data fusion was definitely involved here...I said this...

    '...So that is the possible technical explanation as to how a supposedly ‘obsolete’ S200 [service entry 1967] was able to bring down one of two Israeli warplanes it targeted…and at quite an impressive range…'
     
    And even before offering this explanation...I prefaced it as a 'prospective' technique...

    Unlike yourself...I adhere strictly to the scientific method...ie rely only on known facts...and present anything that is not a known fact as merely a possibility...

    '...S-200 SAM being semi-active type shuold lock target before start and has not any possibilities to lock target after launch...'
     
    Any SAM missile can be launched ballistically...ie without any radar guidance whatsoever...the Serbs made hundreds of ballistic barrages from their 1950s era S125...and quite effectively...denying certain flight routes to the attacking aircraft...while not emitting radio signals and giving away their location...

    I also mentioned this fact...

    '...Further evolution of the S-300P design took place between 1995 and 1997, yielding the S-300PMU2/SA-10E Favorit system, later redesignated SA-20 Gargoyle, intended to compete directly against the Antey S-300V and Patriot PAC-2/3 systems as an Anti-Ballistic Missile system.

    The Favorit incorporates incrementally upgraded 30N6E2 Tomb Stone engagement radar.

    The Favorit's new command post has the capability to control S-300PMU / SA-10, S-300PMU1 / SA-20 batteries, and also S-200VE/SA-5 Gammon batteries, relaying coordinates and commands to the 5N62VE Square Pair guidance and illumination radar...'
     
    We can safely assume that subsequent generations have only increased these capabilities...

    We also know this fact...

    '...Today, a unified integrated air defense system has been set up in Syria.

    We have ensured the information and technical interlinkage of the Russian and Syrian air reconnaissance systems.

    All information on the situation in the air comes from Syrian radar stations to the control points of the Russian force grouping...'
     
    ...Russian Aerospace Forces Major-General Sergey Meshcheryakov...

    So we know that Russian radars are networked in Syria...and we know that the modern S300/400 system can command the S200 batteries...

    But you insist on arguing that the S200 is only able to operate as a standalone system as in 30 years ago...

    I do not know...nor does anyone outside the technical IADS operators in Syria...how exactly these various systems have been interlinked...and what operation procedures are possible...

    So we certainly cannot state with confidence what you said about the S200 not being able to lock at any point after launch...

    They are being controlled by the S300/400 command post...so you and anyone else is sepculating 100 percent when you say things with flat certainty...

    In any case any missile shot may lose lock at any time during flight and subsequently regain it...it depends on the proficiency of the operator...

    All we know is the result...S200 rockets took down one F16...apparently with little prior warning...[again...please explain that with your own theory] ...

    And the second plane targeted was reportedly also hit...a very good result...and this at quite long range...

    So those results speak of a very effective SAM combat performance...a kill percentage of 50 percent...not even counting the second damaged plane...which could well be written off for all we know...

    And this against very good Israeli pilots...flying equipment with sophisticated warning and ECM...

    What’s your problem…? I don’t remember ever even addressing you

    Did you communicate with holy spirit here?

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/#comment-2209053

    I can see why you may not remember things but you sure as hell tried to teach former AD professional and former Baumanka student (you probably can not even grasp what it is) by pasting a shit load of pop-sci facts and a bunch of your, mostly, incompetent speculations. I find it not only being problematic but, to be frank, really funny too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FB
    Look Martyanov...don't try to impress me with your pseudo-credentials...I know a total dweeb when I see one...

    You can brag all you want but you would not even get a five minute audience with me or my colleagues in person if you lived another 100 years...

    You have no idea who you are dealing with...and I post here for the benefit of the readers...many of whom appreciate my comments...not dweebs like you or Yurivku...
    , @Sergey Krieger
    I am reading you guys with great interest. It is technical stuff but looks like it determines how things on the ground in Syria and beyond will develop. Baumanka gives immediate attention. Even to get accepted there was a fit which only few and the best could achieve and bro graduate....
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  180. skrik says:
    @RobinG
    "...... the Zs now accept that they can be targeted by Syria [or anyone else the Zs attack, like Gaza, etc.] in their own airspace – and will do nothing ...."

    Except that Israel bombed Gaza last week (after their jet loss), and no doubt are planning to 'mow the grass' again in the Spring.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jets-hit-gaza-after-overnight-rocket-attack/

    "Directly into the dustbin of history…" Well, a spiraling descent.

    Except that Israel bombed Gaza last week (after their jet loss),

    Yeah, well. OK; I ‘forgot’ that Gaza doesn’t have an AA system like Syria now does. In fact, as most of us know, Gaza is pretty-much – err, totally disarmed [apart from a few home-made 'penny' rockets, say]. So the Zs can attack at will, which they do. The BIG Q is why the rest of the world lets the Zs get away with it? – Mass murder to steal Lebensraum, for which mainly the US hanged many German ‘commanders’ after WW2? After which, many German scientists and technicians were moved to the US (Operation Paper Clip). After which, the US continued to build the world’s greatest military, which could stomp on the Zs any day of the week [to protect freedom and democracy, don't you know?] But they don’t; rather, they attack and destroy the Zs’ enemies, like Syria, say, or Libya, altogether the WC7in5, say. So the world’s greatest military [= US], and the world’s bravest, most honourable military [= Zs], team up to mass-murder basically helpless, innocent people, to steal those innocents’ resources, or just to be ‘hegemons’ [= biggest dicks on the block?]

    Great! That ‘spiraling’ could rattle its dags. rgds

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  181. FB says:
    @Randal

    Well…now we have reports that this deal has been reached…and that SAA troops are expected to enter Afrin within the next 48 hours…
     
    I was rather sceptical of this when you suggested the other day that it would happen, so I'm somewhat surprised that it does seem to have come to pass (assuming deeds follow the words - not always the case in such matters).

    The reason I was sceptical is that if the Syrians back the Kurds actively (they seem to have been doing so more or less openly but unofficially from the start) in Afrin while the Kurds further east are still in bed with the Yanks, the Syrians lose their main leverage with the Kurds and likely lose the opportunities that would have been created by expansion of Turkish hostilities with the Kurds further east. The risk for the Syrians is that they now get locked into conflict with the Turks in Afrin while the US stays cosily embedded with the Kurds further east.

    It might be that they have a wider deal with the Kurds that involves the expulsion of US influence, but this seems unlikely. I doubt the Kurds in Afrin were yet desperate enough to agree to that, except perhaps on some future "never never" basis whereby they'd kick out the Yanks if and when the Syrians have shown they can successfully see off the Turks. But why trust the Kurds? Once the Turks are out of Afrin, what leverage would the Syrians have any more over the SDF Kurds?

    Surely the best approach would be to let the Kurds in Afrin stew and the conflict with the Turks deepen. Show the Turks out of Idlib but let them sit in Afrin until the Kurds generally are desperate enough to come to proper terms involving the wholesale expulsion of US forces and influence. If to the contrary the Syrians are willing to give up the "Turkish threat" leverage with the Kurds so soon, then it likely means they are confident that they can force the US out by other means probably involving putting pressure on them on the ground.

    Time will tell.

    Further to my previous comment #170…

    Turkey is now backpedaling on its threats to invade Manbij…where the US troops are stationed…and conveniently after the Tillerson visit…

    ‘…Commenting on the possibility of a standoff with the US-backed Kurdish forces on the ground, he expressed hope that there would be no need to extend the offensive to Manbij, as all existing issues might be solved through dialogue…’

    Why am I not surprised…?

    At the same time Turkey has reacted furiously to the news of SAA entering Afrin…in that same sputnik article linked to above…

    So the picture is now crystal clear…

    1. The Turks and US are one the same page about Turkey taking over Afrin and creating a terrorist ‘Safe Haven’ that will undermine Syria…and possibly irreversibly fracture the country…with the Turks basically taking over northern Syria and staying forever…

    2. There will be no US-Turkey conflict in Manbij or anywhere else in Syria…ie the Turks and US are working hand in hand…only Putin is supposed to be the dummy…

    Well…the good thing is that it’s not going to work…Putin is no dummy and he will yank Erdog’s leash at the time of his choosing…just as he has yanked Netanyahoo’s leash in the last few days…

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    • Replies: @Randal
    Well I look around today and I wonder what the situation really is. There's no sign yet of any action by the Syrians, and no confirmation by the Kurds - in fact the BBC reported tonight that the YPG has denied any deal, contradicting previous reports of a Kurdish confirmation.

    I remain of the view that the last thing the Syrians will want is to be fighting the Turks in effect to protect the US/Kurdish deal. The concern for the Syrians is probably that the Turks are doing rather too well in Afrin.

    Certainly the Turks are out for themselves, not aligned with either US or Russian interests in Syria. The reason they are going for Afrin first before addressing the US-backed Kurds is mainly I suspect to put off the confrontation with the US which is more problematic for them than one with Syria and Russia. If they can get Afrin tied up, then they will likely move to put more pressure on the Kurds further east.

    The hope for Syria is that it would prove impossible to contain the fighting in Afrin despite the undoubted massive pressure from the US on both Turks and Kurds to avoid escalation in the east.

    We'll see whether there will be an open confrontation between Syrian and Turkish forces in Afrin. I think if there is it will be a desperation move by the Syrians. Probably better in the long run for them to effectively (not formally, obviously) cede Afrin for the moment. They've got other fish to fry further south and east at the moment, and then Idlib will likely be the next item on the menu.
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  182. FB says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    What’s your problem…? I don’t remember ever even addressing you
     
    Did you communicate with holy spirit here?

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/#comment-2209053

    I can see why you may not remember things but you sure as hell tried to teach former AD professional and former Baumanka student (you probably can not even grasp what it is) by pasting a shit load of pop-sci facts and a bunch of your, mostly, incompetent speculations. I find it not only being problematic but, to be frank, really funny too.

    Look Martyanov…don’t try to impress me with your pseudo-credentials…I know a total dweeb when I see one…

    You can brag all you want but you would not even get a five minute audience with me or my colleagues in person if you lived another 100 years…

    You have no idea who you are dealing with…and I post here for the benefit of the readers…many of whom appreciate my comments…not dweebs like you or Yurivku…

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    but you would not even get a five minute audience with me or my colleagues in person if you lived another 100 years…
     
    I am so disappointed, how can I continue to live now? I was desperately planning on audience with you and your colleagues in person for years now. You, dream-crusher. Absolutely inhumane.
    , @yurivku

    You have no idea who you are dealing with…and I post here for the benefit of the readers…many of whom appreciate my comments…not dweebs like you or Yurivku…
     
    Ooo, I just came across this brilliant statement of yours. Congratulations. You are actually the best, even better than I initially assumed -).

    Well, now I have an idea who I'm dealing with and will stop dealing in order not to get dirty.
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  183. Aedib says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    but simply how it is applied to Russian radar networking…

     

    You obviously never heard of optronic channels which are present in any modern AD system nor, obviously, you understand how sensor networks work. Here is a basic illustration of all Eurofighter sensors involved in eliminating acquisition and targeting uncertainties--a main reason for evolution of sensor (data) fusion.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Eurofighter_sensor_fusion.png

    Should you have known how Uspekh (1960s) or Legenda (late 1970s on) worked you wouldn't write this amateur BS, and I quote:

    The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…
     
    You also, most likely, never heard of other target acquisition, targeting and firing solutions based on means OTHER than radar, such as Liana providing geographic coordinates (among other targeting (TzU)) based on "visuals". In fact there are some photos of even Legenda from 1980s providing visual tie in with geographic coordinates (lambda, phi) on targets, such as Carrier Battle Group. And, yes, I never-never dealt in my life with sensor fusion.;-) Like absolutely not, especially not on submarines which had and still do complexes which amount to, well, data fusion. I can even give you a hint--they give you uncertainties and probabilities, which, of course, you need to launch such things, among many, as Sea Launched Strategic Ballistic Missiles. But never mind, let's say that you are right--sensor and data fusion was indeed created for "anti-stealth radar". LOL.

    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers, electrodes and data from laboratory analysis. Anyway, is cool to know that it is used as an anti-stealth tool. Your discussion and arguments are awesome and extremely interesting.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers
     
    Exactly, the whole data-fusion thing is a TOOL. It, naturally, has a wide range of applications in military field.
    , @Simpleguest
    Agree with you.

    Some of the technical data presented by FB can be found here:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html#Protivnik_GE

    I'd like to post two quotes from this page:

    1. "The idea of integrating three radars, each operating in a discrete band, is novel and clearly intended to provide a counter-VLO (very low observability - i.e. stealth) capability. A track fusion system in the KU (command unit) vehicle will be required ...."

    2. "The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The VHF-Band component of the system provides sector search and track functions, with the X-Band and L-Band components providing a fine track capability. By good placement of the radars relative to the threat axis, the L-Band and X-Band components illuminate the incoming target from angles where the target RCS is suboptimal. Attempts to jam the Nebo-M will be problematic, since all of these radars have a passive angle track capability against jammers, as a result of which usage of a jammer permits passive triangulation of the target using three angle track outputs. The RLM-S and RLM-D have better elevation tracking accuracy than the RLM-M, and therefore the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs."

    The conclusion in the last sentence of the second paragraph is very interesting, indeed.

    Anyway, I'd also like to thank all, especially FB, for providing an interesting, real event specific, narrative that incorporated the the above, otherwise, very dry technical data (with this I don't imply that now we know for sure what happened).
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  184. @FB
    Look Martyanov...don't try to impress me with your pseudo-credentials...I know a total dweeb when I see one...

    You can brag all you want but you would not even get a five minute audience with me or my colleagues in person if you lived another 100 years...

    You have no idea who you are dealing with...and I post here for the benefit of the readers...many of whom appreciate my comments...not dweebs like you or Yurivku...

    but you would not even get a five minute audience with me or my colleagues in person if you lived another 100 years…

    I am so disappointed, how can I continue to live now? I was desperately planning on audience with you and your colleagues in person for years now. You, dream-crusher. Absolutely inhumane.

    Read More
    • LOL: Twodees Partain
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  185. @Aedib
    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers, electrodes and data from laboratory analysis. Anyway, is cool to know that it is used as an anti-stealth tool. Your discussion and arguments are awesome and extremely interesting.

    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers

    Exactly, the whole data-fusion thing is a TOOL. It, naturally, has a wide range of applications in military field.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erebus

    It, naturally, has a wide range of applications in military field.
     
    To bring this subject home, every one of us (well, almost everyone) employs the most sophisticated data fusion system ever developed, fusing data from an array of radically different sensors, replete with millions of feedback & feed-forward loops, in support of sophisticated decision making algorithms every day.

    Many of these algorithms run autonomously, even with the system in standby mode.
    It's us. ;-)
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  186. @Andrei Martyanov

    What’s your problem…? I don’t remember ever even addressing you
     
    Did you communicate with holy spirit here?

    http://www.unz.com/tsaker/escalation-in-syria-how-far-can-the-russians-be-pushed/#comment-2209053

    I can see why you may not remember things but you sure as hell tried to teach former AD professional and former Baumanka student (you probably can not even grasp what it is) by pasting a shit load of pop-sci facts and a bunch of your, mostly, incompetent speculations. I find it not only being problematic but, to be frank, really funny too.

    I am reading you guys with great interest. It is technical stuff but looks like it determines how things on the ground in Syria and beyond will develop. Baumanka gives immediate attention. Even to get accepted there was a fit which only few and the best could achieve and bro graduate….

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Baumanka gives immediate attention.
     
    Said Aminov, probably the best Russian language open-source resource on Air Defense issues, is also Baumanka graduate. But then again, Baumanka was and is a true crucible for best military-industrial engineering cadres in Russia.
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  187. @Aedib
    Gentlemen, data fusion is a tool with a lot of applications. I used some data fusion algorithms in early 2000s to know what the hell was going on inside a bioreactor by fusing measurements from gas analyzers, electrodes and data from laboratory analysis. Anyway, is cool to know that it is used as an anti-stealth tool. Your discussion and arguments are awesome and extremely interesting.

    Agree with you.

    Some of the technical data presented by FB can be found here:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html#Protivnik_GE

    I’d like to post two quotes from this page:

    1. “The idea of integrating three radars, each operating in a discrete band, is novel and clearly intended to provide a counter-VLO (very low observability – i.e. stealth) capability. A track fusion system in the KU (command unit) vehicle will be required ….”

    2. “The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The VHF-Band component of the system provides sector search and track functions, with the X-Band and L-Band components providing a fine track capability. By good placement of the radars relative to the threat axis, the L-Band and X-Band components illuminate the incoming target from angles where the target RCS is suboptimal. Attempts to jam the Nebo-M will be problematic, since all of these radars have a passive angle track capability against jammers, as a result of which usage of a jammer permits passive triangulation of the target using three angle track outputs. The RLM-S and RLM-D have better elevation tracking accuracy than the RLM-M, and therefore the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs.”

    The conclusion in the last sentence of the second paragraph is very interesting, indeed.

    Anyway, I’d also like to thank all, especially FB, for providing an interesting, real event specific, narrative that incorporated the the above, otherwise, very dry technical data (with this I don’t imply that now we know for sure what happened).

    Read More
    • Replies: @FB
    Thank you for bringing some real data to the discussion...that is what I was hoping for...

    Yes...the page you linked to is from Dr. Karlo Kopp...a widely recognized expert on radar and Russian weapons systems in particular...

    That excerpt you quoted is at near the bottom of that long page you pointed to... under the heading 'Multiband Radars'...and talks specifically about the Nebo M...which I have mentioned repeatedly...

    '...A track fusion system in the KU vehicle will be required, providing a capability analogous to the US Navy CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)system...

    This technology was previously developed for the Salyut Poima E track fusion system and is now becoming mature...'
     
    That being in 2008...

    So what we see here...and what you pointed out is what I have been speculating also...this type of data fusion with the networked radars...[they don't necessarily need to be the specific ones in the Nebo complex...there is no reason why the same data fusion scheme would not work with other radar models...]

    ...is that this is indeed a plausible modernization / upgrade path for legacy SAM batteries...and could conceivably provide the kind of impressive combat effectiveness on display in that air engagement under discussion...

    I have been careful to state that neither I nor anyone I know are privy to these tightly kept technical details...but I believe the discussion has been fruitful...

    [Of course that hasn't stopped some here from jumping in with combative statements and attempts to sow confusion rather than clarity...]
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
     
    S-400 alone can deal with F-35 just fine. But it is a long story of explaining what is this Ps in the numerator of the Main Radar Equation. The phrase is a complete off the wall statement. Nebo was developed for, read here--it is in English--for a whole range of targets, including VLO. It was also designed for detection of ballistic and hypersonic targets.

    http://bastion-karpenko.ru/VVT/55ZH6ME_02.jpg

    , @FB
    Just want to add one more thought on that last sentence you drew attention to...

    '...the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs...'
     
    That is really quite interesting...

    I had been describing a possible scenario where the onboard S200 seeker takes over near the target...but this tantalizing proposition is even more interesting...

    Ie...guiding the 'legacy' missile right to the target...without ever turning on its own seeker...

    Well...if that is possible...and it works...then certainly that would provide for a very stealthy missile approach to the target airplane...and possibly zero warning of any kind onboard the target aircraft...
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  188. FB says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion…I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion
     
    Really, but I think it is you who said that, surely not me, right? I quote you.

    ‘…The data fusion technique has been developed for low-frequency anti-stealth radars…such as these…’
     
    I repeat again. Data Fusion technique has been developed decades before there ever was any Nebo-M and it has nothing, zero to do with the band-width or specific radar, since it is primarily signal processing and mathematics issue.

    Read attentively what data fusion is. Say from here, from one of the professionals:

    http://fusion.isif.org/proceedings/fusion99CD/C-148.pdf?

    I'll help you a bit by quoting this:


    Data fusion is very important and useful for target recognition and tracking. A system with multi-sensors can fuse data from different sensors to overcome the limitations in the system with single sensor, it can make use of the complementary and redundancy of data from different sensors to improve the precision and robustness of target recognition and tracking. Data fusion at characteristic level can combine characteristics from different sensors to improve the ability of target recognition
     
    In pure "radar" the so called "data fusion" is based on using different frequencies and ESM (Electronic Support Measures--such as providing targeting on "radiating" targets, passive) which are provided with the so called extrasystemic radar systems which have been in use since hell knows when. S-300 are designed as such and once digital processing capabilities reached ability to process large data arrays--around mid 1980s--every single AD system in Russia was effectively moved into data fusion paradigm. Nebo-M is not "Anti-stealth" it is just by the nature of its design it is capable to cover a huge array of targets, including hypersonic and ballistic ones, be them stealth or not. But so is S-400 is "anti-stealth", and so is S-300. All modern radar, and sonar, and optronic systems are developed on "data fusion" principles everywhere--from ships to aircraft, to Air Defense. Most modern specifically Russian systems since late 1980s are created with this "data fusion" and extrasystemic capability which is a defining feature of whole Russian Air Defense. So all major Russian AD complexes are by definition "anti-stealth" (well, Nebo in particular is also scanning the near space) and "data fusion" capable since use multiple sensors, from variety of band-widths from different emitters-receivers, to ESM and other sensor capability.

    Now here you are sniping at me for giving folks here a good discussion…many of which have been kind enough to say ‘thanks’…
     
    I am not "sniping" at you but you certainly create a lot of informational noise with a lot of this noise being a fanboy copy-paste from different open pop-sources with much of it being booklets for arms exhibitions. But I think you don't get it.

    Something only a total amateur
     
    I agree, I am a total amateur. ;-)

    P.S. Google Protivnik GE.

    Look Martyanov…

    I don’t have time to play games with a dweeb…

    I challenged you to come up with a technical critique on several occasions but you have failed to do so…

    Instead you respond with all kinds of ‘chaff’ that is meaningless gibberish…this is what I expect from a person of your caliber…

    Your statement about all networked sensor systems…including radar…being by definition ‘data fusion’ is so vague as to be meaningless…

    You have diverted my discussion into a confusing morass where you want to argue word definitions…well I don’t want to play such silly games…

    My whole point was to try to tackle a technical problem of interest to readers here…how did the ‘obsolete’ Syrian S200 manage to sneak up on a top-notch Israeli pilot flying very good equipment…?

    Your histrionics here have not advanced that discussion by one millimeter…

    My mention of the Nebo multiband radar complex was done for a specific purpose…to illustrate how Russian networking doctrine can operate very flexibly in terms of guiding the missile to its target…

    According to Dr. Karlo Kopp…an acknowledged radar expert…in his technical analysis of the Nebo SVU…

    ‘…the [Nebo] radar has the required performance to cue an X-band 30N6E series engagement radar.

    If these systems are all networked following current Russian practice, the battery’s 54K6E series command post can launch the missiles remotely and datalink them to the aimpoint through most of the flight trajectory.

    When near enough, the missile switches to its own terminal homing seeker to complete the engagement…’

    That is exactly the possible scenario I described…in my #112…

    ‘…It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept…but the implication is obvious…using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together…it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away…’

    And…

    ‘…The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment…it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured…and the reaction time is minimized…’

    Again…I am not saying that this is what happened here…but I am confirming what is known as fact…as stated in Kopp’s comment above…and that a similar technique could have been used here…

    As for the Protivnik GE…please stop wasting time and making useless diversions…

    This L-band 3D surveillance radar was introduced in 1999…but has since been evolved into an AESA [active electronically scanned array] model that is part of the Nebo M complex I described to begin with…and is seen here in the foreground…

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I don’t have time to play games with a dweeb…
     
    OK, then play it with Foxtrot Alpha and I quote them about S-400:

    The S-400 can use multiple types of missiles, and can integrate with various sensor systems including older radars designed for later versions of the S-300 system. This trial appeared to test the system in a mobile expeditionary fashion, not where the S-400 unit is one of many surface-to-air missile systems and sensors that are tied together into a integrated air defense system (IADS).
     
    https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-russias-s-400-missile-system-in-action-and-heres-1746490022

    You see, S-400 can do this too. And so can later versions of S-300--you know, "data fusion". But OK, I surrender.
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  189. @Sergey Krieger
    I am reading you guys with great interest. It is technical stuff but looks like it determines how things on the ground in Syria and beyond will develop. Baumanka gives immediate attention. Even to get accepted there was a fit which only few and the best could achieve and bro graduate....

    Baumanka gives immediate attention.

    Said Aminov, probably the best Russian language open-source resource on Air Defense issues, is also Baumanka graduate. But then again, Baumanka was and is a true crucible for best military-industrial engineering cadres in Russia.

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  190. Randal says:
    @FB
    Further to my previous comment #170...

    Turkey is now backpedaling on its threats to invade Manbij...where the US troops are stationed...and conveniently after the Tillerson visit...

    '...Commenting on the possibility of a standoff with the US-backed Kurdish forces on the ground, he expressed hope that there would be no need to extend the offensive to Manbij, as all existing issues might be solved through dialogue...'
     
    Why am I not surprised...?

    At the same time Turkey has reacted furiously to the news of SAA entering Afrin...in that same sputnik article linked to above...

    So the picture is now crystal clear...

    1. The Turks and US are one the same page about Turkey taking over Afrin and creating a terrorist 'Safe Haven' that will undermine Syria...and possibly irreversibly fracture the country...with the Turks basically taking over northern Syria and staying forever...

    2. There will be no US-Turkey conflict in Manbij or anywhere else in Syria...ie the Turks and US are working hand in hand...only Putin is supposed to be the dummy...

    Well...the good thing is that it's not going to work...Putin is no dummy and he will yank Erdog's leash at the time of his choosing...just as he has yanked Netanyahoo's leash in the last few days...

    Well I look around today and I wonder what the situation really is. There’s no sign yet of any action by the Syrians, and no confirmation by the Kurds – in fact the BBC reported tonight that the YPG has denied any deal, contradicting previous reports of a Kurdish confirmation.

    I remain of the view that the last thing the Syrians will want is to be fighting the Turks in effect to protect the US/Kurdish deal. The concern for the Syrians is probably that the Turks are doing rather too well in Afrin.

    Certainly the Turks are out for themselves, not aligned with either US or Russian interests in Syria. The reason they are going for Afrin first before addressing the US-backed Kurds is mainly I suspect to put off the confrontation with the US which is more problematic for them than one with Syria and Russia. If they can get Afrin tied up, then they will likely move to put more pressure on the Kurds further east.

    The hope for Syria is that it would prove impossible to contain the fighting in Afrin despite the undoubted massive pressure from the US on both Turks and Kurds to avoid escalation in the east.

    We’ll see whether there will be an open confrontation between Syrian and Turkish forces in Afrin. I think if there is it will be a desperation move by the Syrians. Probably better in the long run for them to effectively (not formally, obviously) cede Afrin for the moment. They’ve got other fish to fry further south and east at the moment, and then Idlib will likely be the next item on the menu.

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    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
    I would love to see Russia just let loose on the Turks. Not only decim
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  191. Randal says:
    @yurivku

    He also missed in your post who you were and where you studied–but that is expected from him. He mostly spams all kinds of threads dealing even remotely with any weapons systems with open-source information
     
    Well, it doesn't matter actually. I and I did a big mistake in my 1st post when called s-200 as active homing system while it's semi-active. A lot of time passed.
    But I was once in Kazakhstan where we did training fired on rocket targets twice, two SAMs on each target and did those grounded. My role was to check if SAM is ok befor launch it.

    BTW, this time (1983) there were the only foreigners on poligon and those were Syrians -).
    The speed of those targets were close to real, but I'm not sure about an effective cross section (or what the proper term is). Good trained team always hit the target with the 1st SAM and 2nd SAM usually hit on pieces of target.
    But now when everything changed I'm not sure of those capabilites of S-200 SAMs.

    Because of operating in a dense EW environment with their SPO compromised, most likely.
     
    Well maybe but I don't know what SPO stands for.

    But actually my statement is quite different - just *it not a right way to endlessly retreat*.
    It's a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.

    It’s a time to fight back and Russia should show her real power.

    Well for a start it would be useful to put the little yapping French poodle back into its box:

    French neocon tries to adopt American-style lawless militarism

    Macron said last May that the use of chemical weapons would represent a “red line”. In a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday expressed concern over signs that chlorine bombs had been used against civilians in Syria.

    “On chemical weapons, I set a red line and I reaffirm that red line,” Macron told reporters. “If we have proven evidence that chemical weapons proscribed in treaties are used, we will strike the place where they are made.”

    I hope Putin said straight out that French jets launching clearly illegal attacks on Syria in supposed response to supposed “chemical weapons use” will be shot down.

    Imo a public statement to that effect from Russia would have been beneficial. This idea that supposed chemical weapons uses and other “humanitarian” pretexts justify unilateral war needs to be stamped upon, unless the Russians have given up on it in the face of US lawlessness and are simply resigned to using it themselves when convenient.

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    • Replies: @AnonFromTN
    As French put it, Macron wants to be like Putin, but the leash gets in the way.
    , @yurivku

    I hope Putin said straight out that French jets launching clearly illegal attacks on Syria in supposed response to supposed “chemical weapons use” will be shot down.
     
    I did not hear him saying something like that, but yes, he should. Any action and any word (like stupid moron Macron used) should be answered in punished. But he keeps silent even when state flag of Russia being desecrated like in UA recently and so on.

    Now it's not a time for public statements, now it's a time for actions.

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  192. FB says:
    @Simpleguest
    Agree with you.

    Some of the technical data presented by FB can be found here:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html#Protivnik_GE

    I'd like to post two quotes from this page:

    1. "The idea of integrating three radars, each operating in a discrete band, is novel and clearly intended to provide a counter-VLO (very low observability - i.e. stealth) capability. A track fusion system in the KU (command unit) vehicle will be required ...."

    2. "The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The VHF-Band component of the system provides sector search and track functions, with the X-Band and L-Band components providing a fine track capability. By good placement of the radars relative to the threat axis, the L-Band and X-Band components illuminate the incoming target from angles where the target RCS is suboptimal. Attempts to jam the Nebo-M will be problematic, since all of these radars have a passive angle track capability against jammers, as a result of which usage of a jammer permits passive triangulation of the target using three angle track outputs. The RLM-S and RLM-D have better elevation tracking accuracy than the RLM-M, and therefore the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs."

    The conclusion in the last sentence of the second paragraph is very interesting, indeed.

    Anyway, I'd also like to thank all, especially FB, for providing an interesting, real event specific, narrative that incorporated the the above, otherwise, very dry technical data (with this I don't imply that now we know for sure what happened).

    Thank you for bringing some real data to the discussion…that is what I was hoping for…

    Yes…the page you linked to is from Dr. Karlo Kopp…a widely recognized expert on radar and Russian weapons systems in particular…

    That excerpt you quoted is at near the bottom of that long page you pointed to… under the heading ‘Multiband Radars’…and talks specifically about the Nebo M…which I have mentioned repeatedly…

    ‘…A track fusion system in the KU vehicle will be required, providing a capability analogous to the US Navy CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability)system…

    This technology was previously developed for the Salyut Poima E track fusion system and is now becoming mature…’

    That being in 2008…

    So what we see here…and what you pointed out is what I have been speculating also…this type of data fusion with the networked radars…[they don't necessarily need to be the specific ones in the Nebo complex...there is no reason why the same data fusion scheme would not work with other radar models...]

    …is that this is indeed a plausible modernization / upgrade path for legacy SAM batteries…and could conceivably provide the kind of impressive combat effectiveness on display in that air engagement under discussion…

    I have been careful to state that neither I nor anyone I know are privy to these tightly kept technical details…but I believe the discussion has been fruitful…

    [Of course that hasn't stopped some here from jumping in with combative statements and attempts to sow confusion rather than clarity...]

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  193. Your statement about all networked sensor systems…including radar…being by definition ‘data fusion’ is so vague as to be meaningless…

    Ah, OK, now it is meaningless. But wasn’t it you who stated, and I quote, again:

    I never said nor implied in any way that this was the first application of data fusion…I only stated a correct fact that the Nebo SVU anti-stealth radar complex has been developed on the principle of data fusion

    I merely posit here that anyone who writes this amateurish crap has no idea, as it is the case with you, what he is talking about. “Data fusion” has been around for decades and every single Russian AD system which was developed is “capable” of “data fusion”. Again, by having specific algorithms and processing hardware I can unify several old S-125 with their ancient radar, plus get some other old AD systems into network and thus will create a situation with numerous sensors being “fused” in delivering their data–this whole thing was around for a while. Has ancient S-125 quoting you “been developed on the principle of data fusion” (c)? No. Yet, it can be fairly easily and inexpensively “integrated” to a C3 system which will be able to provide “data fusion”. Hell, throw in some other systems here. It is often goes in the media as “integrated” defense. I do not expect you to understand but, hey, no harm in trying. Here is the paper which discusses three cooperating radar involved in real time data-fusion. Each radar IS a separate sensor.

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/273e/01106624c4691534fcedcd0b7d142977016f.pdf

    Here is quote:

    Furthermore, the goal of data fusion is to operate on a combination of radar sensor measurements, features, track states, and object type and identification likelihoods to produce a single integrated air picture of the air space to a high degree of accuracy. Technologies that enable this synergistic fusion and interpretation of data at several levels from disparate, distributed radars and other sensors should enhance system acquisition, tracking and discrimination of threat objects in a cluttered environment and provide enhanced battle space awareness.

    If you pretend to know AD, as evidently you are trying to appear, then you should know that ALL modern Russian AD complexes are in effect legos since have the ability to be integrated in a network with any of them capable of data-fusion. Even in the initial stages of Russian interference in Syria with S-400 and S-300 being deployed there–I can tell you one thing for sure, they were immediately integrated, together with numerous Pantsyr systems into UNIFIED battle-space. I would assume that initially the whole thing was run through first S-400. Just to give you another “data fusion” sense–once A-50 would go on station both operators in A-50 and S-400, 300 network would see practically the same picture on displays of Operations Officers. But I don’t want to go into CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capabilities) since you are having trouble distinguishing between data-fusion “techniques” and Nebo whatever radar. Read an excellent and concise paper I gave a link to. But, whatever. ;-)

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  194. @Simpleguest
    Agree with you.

    Some of the technical data presented by FB can be found here:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html#Protivnik_GE

    I'd like to post two quotes from this page:

    1. "The idea of integrating three radars, each operating in a discrete band, is novel and clearly intended to provide a counter-VLO (very low observability - i.e. stealth) capability. A track fusion system in the KU (command unit) vehicle will be required ...."

    2. "The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The VHF-Band component of the system provides sector search and track functions, with the X-Band and L-Band components providing a fine track capability. By good placement of the radars relative to the threat axis, the L-Band and X-Band components illuminate the incoming target from angles where the target RCS is suboptimal. Attempts to jam the Nebo-M will be problematic, since all of these radars have a passive angle track capability against jammers, as a result of which usage of a jammer permits passive triangulation of the target using three angle track outputs. The RLM-S and RLM-D have better elevation tracking accuracy than the RLM-M, and therefore the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs."

    The conclusion in the last sentence of the second paragraph is very interesting, indeed.

    Anyway, I'd also like to thank all, especially FB, for providing an interesting, real event specific, narrative that incorporated the the above, otherwise, very dry technical data (with this I don't imply that now we know for sure what happened).

    The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

    S-400 alone can deal with F-35 just fine. But it is a long story of explaining what is this Ps in the numerator of the Main Radar Equation. The phrase is a complete off the wall statement. Nebo was developed for, read here–it is in English–for a whole range of targets, including VLO. It was also designed for detection of ballistic and hypersonic targets.

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    • Replies: @FB
    Well Martyanov...now you are really making a laughingstock of yourself...

    Attacking everyone in sight...including a thoughtful contributor here who happened to do some digging for himself and unfortunately [and probably unintentionally] debunked your earlier BS directed at me...

    At least he was polite enough not to imply that you are blowing hot air...

    Your temperament is the problem here...you do appear to have some technical knowledge...but your style of debate is the cat-fight mode...

    You chose to muddy the waters about data fusion only to attack me...that is not a legitimate way to conduct technical debate...

    Your word games about data fusion are not doing anyone any good...

    Yes your statement about networking = data fusion is incorrect...

    Networking by itself is not data fusion...

    MiG31s were probably the first aircraft to have networked radars...30 years ago...but they were sharing radar data...not creating a composite target track as in data fusion...[although they may have evolved that capability by now...which would certainly make sense...]

    Same for Flankers directed by S300/400 radars on a ground course intercept to an enemy aircraft that does not yet show up on their onboard radar screen...

    Data fusion depends entirely on how intelligently the data processing system is architected...

    It takes time to develop these techniques...it takes real smarts on the part of the designers to develop those algorithms and software that is going to take data feeds from many different sensors and combine that in a way that is powerful and useful...

    This did not instantly happen as soon as two radars were data linked to one another...
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  195. FB says:
    @Simpleguest
    Agree with you.

    Some of the technical data presented by FB can be found here:

    http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-Low-Band-Radars.html#Protivnik_GE

    I'd like to post two quotes from this page:

    1. "The idea of integrating three radars, each operating in a discrete band, is novel and clearly intended to provide a counter-VLO (very low observability - i.e. stealth) capability. A track fusion system in the KU (command unit) vehicle will be required ...."

    2. "The Nebo-M system is clearly designed to hunt the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The VHF-Band component of the system provides sector search and track functions, with the X-Band and L-Band components providing a fine track capability. By good placement of the radars relative to the threat axis, the L-Band and X-Band components illuminate the incoming target from angles where the target RCS is suboptimal. Attempts to jam the Nebo-M will be problematic, since all of these radars have a passive angle track capability against jammers, as a result of which usage of a jammer permits passive triangulation of the target using three angle track outputs. The RLM-S and RLM-D have better elevation tracking accuracy than the RLM-M, and therefore the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs."

    The conclusion in the last sentence of the second paragraph is very interesting, indeed.

    Anyway, I'd also like to thank all, especially FB, for providing an interesting, real event specific, narrative that incorporated the the above, otherwise, very dry technical data (with this I don't imply that now we know for sure what happened).

    Just want to add one more thought on that last sentence you drew attention to…

    ‘…the Nebo M should be capable of producing high quality tracks suitable for midcourse guidance of modern SAMs and full trajectory guidance of legacy SAMs…’

    That is really quite interesting…

    I had been describing a possible scenario where the onboard S200 seeker takes over near the target…but this tantalizing proposition is even more interesting…

    Ie…guiding the ‘legacy’ missile right to the target…without ever turning on its own seeker…

    Well…if that is possible…and it works…then certainly that would provide for a very stealthy missile approach to the target airplane…and possibly zero warning of any kind onboard the target aircraft…

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  196. @FB
    Look Martyanov...

    I don't have time to play games with a dweeb...

    I challenged you to come up with a technical critique on several occasions but you have failed to do so...

    Instead you respond with all kinds of 'chaff' that is meaningless gibberish...this is what I expect from a person of your caliber...

    Your statement about all networked sensor systems...including radar...being by definition 'data fusion' is so vague as to be meaningless...

    You have diverted my discussion into a confusing morass where you want to argue word definitions...well I don't want to play such silly games...

    My whole point was to try to tackle a technical problem of interest to readers here...how did the 'obsolete' Syrian S200 manage to sneak up on a top-notch Israeli pilot flying very good equipment...?

    Your histrionics here have not advanced that discussion by one millimeter...

    My mention of the Nebo multiband radar complex was done for a specific purpose...to illustrate how Russian networking doctrine can operate very flexibly in terms of guiding the missile to its target...

    According to Dr. Karlo Kopp...an acknowledged radar expert...in his technical analysis of the Nebo SVU...


    '...the [Nebo] radar has the required performance to cue an X-band 30N6E series engagement radar.

    If these systems are all networked following current Russian practice, the battery's 54K6E series command post can launch the missiles remotely and datalink them to the aimpoint through most of the flight trajectory.

    When near enough, the missile switches to its own terminal homing seeker to complete the engagement...'
     

    That is exactly the possible scenario I described...in my #112...

    '...It is not clear how far the Russians have taken this concept…but the implication is obvious…using a number of radars in different locations that are datalinked together…it is possible to guide a missile shot to at least get close enough without having to lock on and give itself away…'
     
    And...

    '...The upshot of all this is that the onboard radar on the S200 can be turned off until the very last moment…it turns on only when it is close enough that the kill is assured…and the reaction time is minimized…'
     
    Again...I am not saying that this is what happened here...but I am confirming what is known as fact...as stated in Kopp's comment above...and that a similar technique could have been used here...

    As for the Protivnik GE...please stop wasting time and making useless diversions...

    This L-band 3D surveillance radar was introduced in 1999...but has since been evolved into an AESA [active electronically scanned array] model that is part of the Nebo M complex I described to begin with...and is seen here in the foreground...

    http://ausairpower.net/PVO-S/NNIIRT-55Zh6ME-Nebo-M-RLS-A.jpg

    I don’t have time to play games with a dweeb…

    OK, then play it with Foxtrot Alpha and I quote them about S-400:

    The S-400 can use multiple types of missiles, and can integrate with various sensor systems including older radars designed for later versions of the S-300 system. This trial appeared to test the system in a mobile expeditionary fashion, not where the S-400 unit is one of many surface-to-air missile systems and sensors that are tied together into a integrated air defense system (IADS).

    https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-russias-s-400-missile-system-in-action-and-heres-1746490022

    You see, S-400 can do this too. And so can later versions of S-300–you know, “data fusion”. But OK, I surrender.

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    • Replies: @FB
    OMG...Tyler Rogoway...?

    Are you for real...?

    This guy has zero technical credentials of any kind...I doubt he could solve a right triangle...

    http://irregulartimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/gassuicide.jpg
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  197. EugeneGur says:
    @Byrresheim
    Spot on.

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    While there is absolutely no need to copy present-day Germany's guilt-cult, a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists might actually help the Russians to find solutions and even draw present enemies over to them.

    (I am not going to waste my time answering to irate Russians. I am no enemy of that nation, to the contrary, but if you insist on shutting your eyes fast, don't complain about the occastional stubbed toe: it's completely unnecessary.)

    Again and again I am astonished by the complete lack of russian awareness of stalinist crimes.

    This is the silliest thing to say and can only be explain by you complete ignorance. The Russians themselves denounces the crimes. Hundreds and hundreds of books have been published in Russia on the subject. The discussion of the matter has been going in our society in public and in private as long as I can remember. We’ve had theater plays, museum exhibition, historical studies, TV programs devotes to these events – you name it, we’ve had it. How much more awareness do you expect, talks about this every day at dinner?

    I think by the lack of awareness you mean that we don’t swallow everything the West throws at us, like “Stalin murdered millions”, “Stalin was worse than Hitler”, “Stalin murdered more people than anyone else” and similar garbage. We want to know the real numbers and real events, not fairy tales invented for specific political purposes.

    a bit less noise about so called nazis and fascists

    We remember well what the policy of not making noises once led to. So with your permission or without it, we’ll continue making noises, for nobody else seems to be willing to. You all appear perfectly fine with the Nazis.

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    • Agree: RobinG,