The Pew Research Center isn’t some isolated, far-right web site peddling conspiracy theories. Instead, this prestigious organization has all but confirmed The Great Replacement is remaking the United States of America. [Reflecting a demographic shift, 109 U.S. counties have become majority nonwhite since 2000, Pew Research Center, August 21, 2019]:
In the United States, the white share of the population is declining as Hispanic, Asian and black populations grow. But the shift to a more diverse nation is happening more quickly in some places than in others.
From 2000 to 2018, 109 counties in 22 states, from California to Kansas to North Carolina, went from majority white to majority nonwhite – that is, counties where non-Hispanic whites are no longer the majority, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. (Our analysis includes only counties with a minimum population of 10,000 in 2018. These counties represent 77% of the nation’s 3,142 counties and include 99% of the U.S. population.)
Overall, 293 U.S. counties were majority nonwhite in 2018. Most of these counties are concentrated in California, the South and on the East Coast, with few in the country’s middle section. In addition, several majority white counties with large populations may flip in coming years. Fairfax County, Virginia (total of 1.2 million), Pima County, Arizona (1 million), Milwaukee County, Wisconsin (948,000) and Cobb County, Georgia (757,000) all had populations that were less than 52% white.
In 21 of the 25 biggest U.S. counties by population, nonwhite groups together make up more than half of residents. Eight of these counties were majority white in 2000 but are no longer: San Diego, Orange, Riverside and Sacramento (all in California), plus Clark (Nevada), Broward (Florida), Tarrant (Texas) and Wayne (Michigan). Hispanics were the largest nonwhite population in all of these eight counties except Wayne – which contains Detroit – where the black population was the largest nonwhite group. (In Broward County, Hispanic and black residents made up similar shares of the population at 30% and 28%, respectively.)
As the nation’s racial and ethnic diversity grows, whites remain the single largest racial or ethnic group in the U.S. when looking at the country as a whole, accounting for 60% of all Americans. The four largest U.S. counties that had majority white populations in 2018 were Maricopa (Arizona), King (Washington), Middlesex (Massachusetts) and Palm Beach (Florida).
nother way to highlight the nation’s changing demographics is to look at how many counties shifted the opposite way. From 2000 to 2018, just two counties went from minority white to majority white: Calhoun County in South Carolina and West Feliciana Parish in Louisiana, each with relatively small populations of about 15,000.
Among the 109 counties that between 2000 and 2018 shifted from majority white to majority nonwhite, 26 were at least 60% white in 2000. Counties in Georgia stand out for having five of the 10 biggest percentage point swings in their white population share. (These 10 counties also had the largest percentage point drop among all U.S. counties on this measure.)
In less than 20 years, 109 counties across the United States felt the startling impact of The Great Replacement.
Imagine what we’ll see in five years… demography is destiny.