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Will Trump Take Neocon Bait and Attack Iran Over Saudi Strike?
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The recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities by Yemeni Houthi forces demonstrate once again that an aggressive foreign policy often brings unintended consequences and can result in blowback. In 2015 Saudi Arabia attacked its neighbor, Yemen, because a coup in that country ousted the Saudi-backed dictator. Four years later Yemen is in ruins, with nearly 100,000 Yemenis killed and millions more facing death by starvation. It has been rightly called the worst humanitarian catastrophe on the planet.

But rich and powerful Saudi Arabia did not defeat Yemen. In fact, the Saudis last month asked the Trump Administration to help facilitate talks with the Houthis in hopes that the war, which has cost Saudi Arabia tens of billions of dollars, could finally end without Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman losing too much face. Washington admitted earlier this month that those talks had begun.

The surprise Houthi attack on Saturday disrupted half of Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas production and shocked Washington. Predictably, however, the neocons are using the attack to call for war with Iran!

Sen. Lindsay Graham, one of the few people in Washington who makes John Bolton look like a dove, Tweeted yesterday that, “It is now time for the US to put on the table an attack on Iranian oil refineries…” Graham is the perfect embodiment of the saying, “when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” No matter what the problem, for Graham the solution is war.

Likewise, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – who is supposed to represent US diplomacy – jumped to blame Iran for the attack on Saudi Arabia, Tweeting that, “Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.” Of course, he provided no evidence even as the Houthis themselves took responsibility for the bombing.

What is remarkable is that all of Washington’s warmongers are ready for war over what is actually a retaliatory strike by a country that is the victim of Saudi aggression, not the aggressor itself. Yemen did not attack Saudi Arabia in 2015. It was the other way around. If you start a war and the other country fights back, you should not be entitled to complain about how unfair the whole thing is.

The establishment reaction to the Yemeni oilfield strike reminds me of a hearing in the House Foreign Affairs Committee just before the US launched the 2003 Iraq war. As I was arguing against the authorization for that war, I pointed out that Iraq had never attacked the United States. One of my colleagues stopped me in mid-sentence, saying, “let me remind the gentleman that the Iraqis have been shooting at our planes for years.” True, but those planes were bombing Iraq!

The neocons want a US war on Iran at any cost. They may feel temporarily at a disadvantage with the departure of their ally in the Trump Administration, John Bolton. However, the sad truth is that there are plenty more John Boltons in the Administration. And they have allies in the Lindsay Grahams in Congress.

Yemen has demonstrated that it can fight back against Saudi aggression. The only sensible way forward is for a rapid end to this four-year travesty, and the Saudis would be wise to wake up to the mess they’ve created for themselves. Whatever the case, US participation in Saudi Arabia’s war on Yemen must end immediately and neocon lies about Iran’s role in the war must be refuted and resisted.

(Republished from The Ron Paul Institute by permission of author or representative)
 
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  1. Paul says:

    The Israel Lobby and chicken hawks are clamoring for a U.S. war with Iran.

  2. The tentacled machinations of the neocons never ceases to amaze me. It seems that they cannot be defeated or even deterred.

  3. A123 says:

    The DemocratNeoCons want boots on the ground in Iran. This is why Bill Kristol, George Will, and other “Never Trumpers” abandoned the GOP. NeoCons are fundamentally Liberals.

    Will Trump put boots on the ground in Iran?

    No. Will not happen. Forget about it.

    _____

    The weapons used whether high end drones or low end missiles are beyond local Yemeni manufacturing capabalities. They were almost certainly supplied by Iran to be used against the Saudi’s. The teams going through the wreckage will be looking for weapon parts to provide 100% proof of Iranian involvement.

    The Europeans tried appeasement in the 1930’s with the red carpet, walk all over me, response to National Socalism. We can with fair confidence predict that trying to appease the Ayatollah/Furher of the Islamic National Socialist Republic of Iran will have similar results. Thus, a Saudi response is necessary and inevitable. There will be a pause for damage assessment so the correct level of punishment can be calibrated. Also, Iranian troops are at max readiness right now. The optimum time for a counterstrike is some days away.

    Most likely the Saudi’s will run any offensive firepower themselves as a matter of honor. U.S. involvement, if any, would be indirect such as electronic countermeasures and Bomb Damage Assessment. So, no serious risks to the U.S. in the near future. The longer term issue is a cycle of escalation where Iran continues to provoke and the Saudi’s continue justified retaliation.

    Everyone understands that Ayatollah Khameni is a sociopath who is willing to lead his own people to extinction. However, the people of Iran loathe the Ayatollah and are unlikely to suicide on his orders. The most optimistic path forward is the “Egypt solution”. The Iranian military deposing the current unhinged leadership, thus allowing Iran to rejoin the community of civilized nations.

    PEACE 😇

    • Disagree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Troll: Iris
  4. Durruti says:

    Doctor, Statesman, Ron Paul:

    You write 2 lovely paragraphs in a fine article.

    What is remarkable is that all of Washington’s warmongers are ready for war over what is actually a retaliatory strike by a country that is the victim of Saudi aggression, not the aggressor itself. Yemen did not attack Saudi Arabia in 2015. It was the other way around. If you start a war and the other country fights back, you should not be entitled to complain about how unfair the whole thing is.

    The establishment reaction to the Yemeni oilfield strike reminds me of a hearing in the House Foreign Affairs Committee just before the US launched the 2003 Iraq war. As I was arguing against the authorization for that war, I pointed out that Iraq had never attacked the United States. One of my colleagues stopped me in mid-sentence, saying, “let me remind the gentleman that the Iraqis have been shooting at our planes for years.” True, but those planes were bombing Iraq!

    You omit mention of the Foreign Zionist Financial Oligarch Controllers of the United States. The United States is not a Sovereign Nation, and has not been since the assassination-in a hail of bullets- of our last Constitutional President, John F. Kennedy in the Coup D’état of November 22, 1963. The recent retirement of the Shadow Government that has ruled us for the last 3 decades, (Epstein, Maxwell, MOSSAD-& puppet CIA) is a signal of the confidence our Foreign Rulers have in their Puppet American Government.

    They no longer need a Shadow Government. They control -Completely, the Hollywood Disney World version of an Independent State. They recently inducted 72 Traitor Politicians in a single trip.

    At the time the Epstein – Maxwell replacement occurred, 72 Traitor Congressmen were receiving implants (so to speak), in the Rothschild Central Political Office-located in the Zionist Entity.
    Imagine, 72 American Traitors being processed by a Foreign Government as some are still complaining that Casino (Yahweh) Trump is a Russian agent.

    The greatest single crime being committed today, is the Ethnic Cleansing of the Palestinian People from their Homeland. All other crimes stem from this one. The ongoing destruction of our Nation & its people is the very next crime on their long list.

    Statesman Ron Paul:

    I have a hope that you will Head a Committee of American Elders, Nader, Joan Baez, Cynthia McKinney, Jesse Ventura, Dennis Kucinich, and others, who will oversee the Recovery of our Sovereign American Republic, with special attention being devoted to organizing the First Free Elections since 1960.

    I do not ask much of you – – – I ask everything of you.

    God Bless!

    God Bless America!

    Durruti – alias Dr. Peter J. Antonsen

    • Agree: Miggle
  5. @A123

    The weapons used to destroy Yemen are beyond local Saudi manufacturing capabilities. They were almost certainly supplied by the US to be used against the Yemenis. The teams going through the wreckage will be looking for weapon parts to provide 100% proof of US involvement.

    FTFY.

    • Replies: @A123
  6. A123 says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    [note to mods]

    Mr. Unz,

    I believe there is a rule about using BLOCKQUOTE to intentionally fabricate disinformation.

    Compare YetAnotherAnon’s #5 versus what I actually said in #3. This is not shortening or other permitted behaviour.

    Thanks

    [Actually the “FTFY” would indicate that the text has been altered. Anyway, everyone can easily check the quote by looking at the original comment. It’s impossible to police all the back-and-forth insults and accusations, and commenters who behave badly merely undermine their own credibility, though too much profanity or epithets may get comments trashed.]

    • Replies: @Lol
    , @YetAnotherAnon
  7. @A123

    The USA and its allies have a long and for some time unbroken history of lying and of fabricating evidence. Their fabrications are clumsy though when they even appear. Usually, as now we’re expected to simply take their word for it. I for one would never take their word for anything.

    Yemen is overall backward, but they still have industry capable of manufacturing the relatively low-level technology they’re using via missiles and drones. Whilst Iran has certainly provided technical expertise and maybe even some of the technical components the basic manufacture is going on in Yemen because there’s no other way to effectively get anything serious past the blockades. If they were smuggling much by way of weaponry in we’d be hearing of interdictions which we’re not. The GPS and other electronics would be brought in but the rest is not a problem for local capabilities. Iran hasn’t made the sort of mistake of being so directly involved before now, I think you can rule out them having done so now.

    The Ayatollah of Iran has always been the voice of reason and peace. Your lies on this score cannot go unchallenged. This is the same leader who reaffirmed and his predecessor’s fatwa against nuclear weapons as unIslamic and made his own on top of it! Despite a regular drumbeat of terrorist actions supported by and often participated in by their antagonisers in Tel Aviv and Washington. Iran has never been an aggressor, has never actually been involved in terrorism (regular accusations without proof notwithstanding (and Hamas, as well as Hezbollah, are not terrorist entities despite rhetoric by real terrorists) and is yet an impregnable fortress of confident and unassailable conventional might. You take your warmongering hypocrisy that shoots down a civilian airliner without even a word of regret, that regularly blows up crowds of people peacefully gathering in Iran (and other places)..even the Islamist terrorists are aligned with Zionism and USA, and you go grow some balls to do something about it or else be seen for and called out for what you are. Cowards, war criminals and terrorists on every level. Long may Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei live but when he falls another will take his stead. You’re not dealing with sand pirates here who can be bought with trinkets and whose Sunni version of fair weather Islam is just a pale reflection of the true glory and unyielding commitment which is Islam.

    This man is not a cheap politician. He is a leader with a sacred task which is not to stray from the simple, undebatable aspects of the Noble Quran and ensure it is as such observed as the de facto constitution of the nation. If he strays then his followers will be the first to decry him and he would be replaced. He is not some all-powerful phony king like your proteges in Riyadh. He is a cleric with a similar role and not many different powers to the Pope at various times in history.

    The lie of your gibbering about Iranian aggression is clear and obvious when we look at the actual history of the modern nation. Iran has not waged a war or act of aggression against anyone except in self-defence and unlike the blood-curdling threats and chest-beating show put on by Iran’s detractors and self-appointed enemies Iranian leadership has only ever stated their weapons are for self-defence. When arseholes like you talk about defending against Iranian attacks what you mean is waging a full-scale war AFTER Iran responds in kind to your initial aggression. When you spy aggressively on a country, sanction them and wage terrorist war by proxy against them as well as an endless war of propaganda and demonisation based on what you spew forth, namely lies, then that country has every right to defend itself. Iran has chosen to remain independent and not be a whore of your fucked up empire and to make their own way in the world and if you don;t like that then they’re ready and willing to give you a lesson in messing with the best. Their thousands of years old history against your mixture of recent modern puppy dog states on their last legs and a fake identity stolen bit of land which will be just a nasty memory 48 hours after you start a war with Iran.

    You are so very wrong about Iranians hating the Ayatollah. That is a total fabrication. He is loved by anyone whoever took the time to read or listen to what he says. Iranians have problems with the economy, and they’re subject to a barrage of propaganda against their own government by many sources from their enemies. There is also corruption in some circles and the government is not monolithic it is made up of many factions. Iran has a vibrant democracy with many parties and candidates running in every election and nothing like the fake dualities which pass for democracy in the West. This is why there is plenty of people who hate one group or another of the government and some who hate the whole government. You are wrong to translate that onto hatred for the Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei. He is loved and revered by all Shias and as I said anyone who takes the time. I challenge you take the same time with any of the Western-backed leaders and see what you think about them by comparison. I’d put Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei as a man and leader far above anyone out there except perhaps Vladimir Putin and al-Sayyid Hassan Nasrullah. You Zionists can rant and rave and splatter your filth over such men but in the end, they will defeat you every time because they are the antithesis to your own corruption and they have God on their side. Really. You have nobody but the worst of men and their “god”.

    You may slander them and us, those who oppose you, but that will never make you better or braver or more competent. If you do attack then they are ready. They have proved this every time and you have proved you cannot handle what they can dish out whilst they can handle whatever you in your impotence throw at them. Big talk of nuking entire nations is just that. Have you looked at a map lately? Iran is massive and mountainous and besides, these wet dreams of giant nuclear barrages are total nonsense. There are other players more than capable of responding in kind and they would not permit it. You threaten and slander and sanction. In the end, you will fail and your history will not be written by you.

    • Replies: @Miggle
  8. @A123

    The short answer is. You go on and fabricate stories to make yourself feel safer keep on extending that overconfidence to prevaricating excuses why your Saudi friends cannot manage to defeat or even defend themselves now against the hapless, starved and isolated Yemenis. You just cannot get it right can you? Iran is weak and riven from within…yet somehow Iran is here, and Iran is there and Iran is everywhere thwarting your looting and pillaging plans. Some kind of superstate Iran. Naturally, this is the only explanation your expensive, state of the art anti-air missile defences don’t work. Only problem is we already knew they did not work. Expensive boondoggles like most US weapons. get into a real war and you’re rooted. Everyone knows it except your stupid voting public and the politicians who lie to them.

  9. Lol says:
    @A123

    US warplanes should carpet bomb Israel on their way to Iran if international law violations, illegally bombing other countries etc etc since we’re at it.

  10. Lol says:
    @A123

    Assuming you’re not brain dead and just dishonest, this is the behavior that got all those pogroms rained down your kin by everyone on this planet.

    • Replies: @Malla
  11. @A123

    Sir ! Sir ! Jones threw something at me ! Sir, give him a detention !

    Anyone with a brain in their head could see I was parodying your argument by replacing “victim Saudi” with “victim Yemen” and “weapons supplier Iran” with “weapons supplier USA”.

    I forgot to put a formal explanation for those people who don’t fall into that category. My bad.

    • Replies: @A123
  12. A123 says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    Feel free to:
    — Accurately quote me
    — Then in your own words put in “Let me help you, what you wanted to say was….” or FTFY and post your intentional mis-translation.

    Intentionally falsifying a quote, even though you intended it as humor, can go wrong badly. You are giving an open invitation to other parties encouraging them to falsify your words. If I think it is funny, should I “FTFY” one of your quotes to make it look like you admit to be a founding member of NAMBLA? I suspect you would not find that funny at all.

    Some of the name calling and Trolling here already pushes the limits. Intentionally doing something that is pretty much guaranteed to make things worse….. Why would you want to dig the hole deeper?

    PEACE 😇

    • LOL: YetAnotherAnon
  13. Malla says:
    @Lol

    ((They)) never learn. It is weird, really. 1000s of years of experiences to ponder over.
    But ((they)) just never learn.

  14. MarkinLA says:

    With CGI and computer generated voice-overs seamlesly spicing audio tapes that can only be detected using advanced techniques in the lab and not by any human ear, I would not trust anything comming from “the intelligence community” regarding Iran’s involvement.

  15. Dannyboy says:

    Jews and demi Jews control the West, so it’s only a matter of time.

    Can’t wait for the whole house of cards to come crashing down.

  16. Realist says:

    Sen. Lindsay Graham, one of the few people in Washington who makes John Bolton look like a dove, Tweeted yesterday that, “It is now time for the US to put on the table an attack on Iranian oil refineries…” Graham is the perfect embodiment of the saying, “when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

    Yes, Graham has a problem with the perception (probably his own as well) of his manhood and is over compensating through war mongering.

    • Replies: @follyofwar
  17. @Longfisher

    They certainly can’t be embarrassed.

  18. It’s my belief that it was Iran that instigated the attack — and rightly so.

    You have to stand up to bullying. Iran made it clear that if we attack her, we may win the war — but it will hurt. She just demonstrated that she can destroy whatever portion of Gulf oil production she wishes. Saturday was just a sample — a tasting.

    Want to buy the whole bottle?

    Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates now have to ask themselves; is it worth seeing the total loss of all our income for some months to attack Iran? The rest of us can wonder; do we really want a global recession?

    Bullies usually are deterred by such considerations. Sure, they can win the fight; but is it really worth it if that little victim is going to go down fighting?

    Iran knows how to communicate with us. Her attack was admirably calibrated. It hurt — but just enough to get the point across.

    • Replies: @anonymous
  19. anonymous[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @Colin Wright

    Why do you use pronouns to refer to our (the real our) rulers?

    “.. that if we attack her, we may win the war”

    The American people can’t win any of these endless wars because our (the real our) only stake in them is how many of our (the real our) kids and how much of our (the real our) money will be consumed in the process. We (the real we) should disavow the warmongers, not suggest that they’re acting on our (the real our) behalf.

    • Agree: Colin Wright
  20. How about calling Neocons ‘Israel Firsters’ or ‘Jewish Supremacists’?

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  21. @Priss Factor

    ‘How about calling Neocons ‘Israel Firsters’ or ‘Jewish Supremacists’?’

    By now, it goes without saying. That’s what ‘Neocon’ means. Do they even still call themselves ‘Neocons,’ or have they resorted to some other euphemism?

  22. macilrae says:

    Will Trump Take Neocon Bait and Attack Iran Over Saudi Strike?

    I’ve taken it upon myself to do a little armchair ‘forensic’ analysis of the damaged site at Abqaiq. Specifically, I looked at the four ‘onions’ (hemispherical processing vessels) located at 25°55’37.1N 49°41’02.6E.

    The satellite image atshows that each ~30m diameter vessel was pierced in almost exactly the same location by an object which made a clean hole roughly 1m in diameter in the tough steel outer shell. There is no evidence of any explosive charge which suggests the only intent was to pierce the containment and inflict ballistic damage.

    The location of all holes suggests that four missiles were very precisely targeted on the centre of each vessel and that they approached from an almost due westerly direction. Whether each missile acquired its target by GPS or by a combination of GPS and pattern recognition is debatable – but nevertheless such precision is evidently the product of extremely advanced technology.

    The degree of precision and the targeting sophistication surely rules out any Yemeni made device – these were self-targeting guided missiles designed to penetrate light armour without explosive charges and seemingly far too large to have been carried into Saudi Arabia as has been suggested.

    To the west of that location is the Red Sea (Iran, of course, being to the east) – a little to the north of west is Israel.

    Which is why Ron Paul’s term “Neocon bait” piqued my interest.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @MarkinLA
  23. A123 says:
    @macilrae

    Interesting picture. You can see rough scale by the car and truck also in the picture. Check the picture below for a wider view of the facility. (1)

    High pressure facilities and processing are at the top. The vertical column shape and nearby heat exchangers indicate that is where the ‘work’ is being done.

    At the bottom of the image are large circular floating roof tanks. The fact that the roof is at the bottom indicates that the tank is nearly or totally empty.

    The facilities in the left of frame appear to be fire damaged. No detail is visible through the soot.

    The onion shapes in mid picture are most likely hazardous storage. The large pipe connected to the top of each tank usually means that waste gas is not being allowed to escape to the atmosphere. The vent routes to a flare or incinerator for disposal of dangerous material. The shape would be viable for modest pressure. None of the onions show major fire damage/soot. One of the onions is discolored, but that may be prexisting/environmental. One has to wonder if they were empty at the time of the strike.

    PEACE 😇
    _____

    (1) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Truth-And-Repercussions-Of-The-Saudi-Drone-Attack.html

    • Replies: @macilrae
  24. MarkinLA says:
    @macilrae

    Whether each missile acquired its target by GPS or by a combination of GPS and pattern recognition is debatable – but nevertheless such precision is evidently the product of extremely advanced technology.

    Not necesarily. With the advent of these extremely small cameras and radio communication (we now have cheap walkie-talkies with 25 mile ranges), it would not take much for a few EEs to put together a missile similar to the old TOW missle but without the wire. The operator guides the missile to its target by keeping the target in the middle of the video field of view with control signals sent to the missile fins via a simple controller.

    • Replies: @macilrae
  25. macilrae says:
    @MarkinLA

    Hi MarkinLA

    I completely agree in principle but look at the consistency of positioning of those entry points – manual placement would be more haphazard; at those speeds especially. Also the numbers and size of the ordinance would prohibit bringing them to within 25 miles of target to fire due to the likelihood of detection – in which case an operator (or operators) would have to be placed first, ready to take over control locally: pretty difficult technologically.

    Yes, Yemenis would have much to gain from this – but so would Israelis: maybe launching them from the Red Sea? Iran far less.

  26. macilrae says:
    @A123

    Hi A123

    Interesting observations – when I did my little study I was surprised at how few petrochemical engineers had chipped in with their thoughts online; as well as how few technical comments there were on the precise nature of the damage and its likely cause – “drones”, at least in the conventional sense, seemed to be ruled out immediately.

  27. A123 says:

    My background is in a related field. So, I can only infer in broad terms based on what the facilities look like. However, a great deal of heavy industry shares common ground. I will gladly defer to a true petroleum expert if one chooses to post.
    _____

    Combined with oil there is almost always H2S (hydrogen sulfide) gas. Very lethal in its own right. It can also combine with oxygen resulting in H2SO4 (sufuric acid). It would be logical to put raw oil into the onion shaped tanks so some of the H2S can leave the mix and go to incineration while heavier contaminants including water go to the bottom where they can be pulled off.

    After the “free” separation is complete, the crude would go to a distillation column to get rid of the remaining H2S and probably additional water while allowing light desirable petroleum liquids to remain in the crude. The facilities at the top of the picture have the right look for this type of function.

    Once the crude is no longer an H2S gas risk, it could go into the floating roof tanks at the bottom of the picture for longer term storage. Floating roof tanks are discouraged in the southern U.S. because of hurricane related risks, but that probably is a non issue for storage of oil in the Persian Gulf area.
    _____

    As you can see in the larger picture there are onion tanks that were not hit. Also, the least damaged tanks are likely patchable if there is a pressing need to do so. The big question I cannot answer is, “What exactly are the burned structures in the left of the picture.” At first glance they look similar to the columns in the top part of the picture. If so, no unique equipment was destroyed.

    Everything needs to be inspected and odds are there is secondary damage, such as wiring and pumps, not visible in the photos. If there is a workaround for the destroyed equipment a partial restart could occur in 2-3 weeks. Probably 6-8 weeks to come back to near full production. Facilities have come back from minor hurricane damage in those kinds of time frames.

    PEACE

  28. @Longfisher

    The neocons are almost always either Jewish Zionists or Christian Zionists. And the Christian Zionists are worse because they yearn for the Second Coming, while the Jewish Zionists laugh at them.

  29. @Realist

    I had hoped that McCain’s gay wing man would adopt a lower profile after his boss’s death. Does Graham cracker remember that, when he ran for president last cycle, he polled at statistically zero percent? Yet the f**kin’ media always goes to those idiots like they are oracles. Who will hire Bolton first – CNN, MSNBC, or Fox?

  30. Totally agree. McCain with that U.S.S. Liberty-compromised father, and himself author of that Magnitsky Act which wouldn’t have passed muster at Disney’s Creative Department.

    Why has no one speculated on the timing of the attack: i.e. the eve of Israel’s again inconclusive election ???: with BB posturing as the tough guy; promising annexation of 30% of the residual ” Palestinian State “, pursuant to Israel’s personal real estate lawyer Moses.

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