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Why Trump’s Iran Isolation Plan May Backfire
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In May, President Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal despite Iran living up to its obligations and the deal working as planned. While the US kept in place most sanctions against Tehran, China and Russia – along with many European countries – had begun reaping the benefits of trade with an Iran eager to do business with the world.

Now, President Trump is threatening sanctions against any country that continues to do business with Iran. But will his attempt to restore the status quo before the Iran deal really work?

Even if the Europeans cave in to US demands, the world has changed a great deal since the pre-Iran deal era.

President Trump is finding that his threats and heated rhetoric do not always have the effect he wishes. As his Administration warns countries to stop buying Iranian oil by November or risk punishment by the United States, a nervous international oil market is pushing prices ever higher, threatening the economic prosperity he claims credit for. President Trump’s response has been to demand that OPEC boost its oil production by two million barrels per day to calm markets and bring prices down.

Perhaps no one told him that Iran was a founding member of OPEC?

When President Trump Tweeted last week that Saudi Arabia agreed to begin pumping additional oil to make up for the removal of Iran from the international markets, the Saudis very quickly corrected him, saying that while they could increase capacity if needed, no promise to do so had been made.

The truth is, if the rest of the world followed Trump’s demands and returned to sanctions and boycotting Iranian oil, some 2.7 million barrels per day currently supplied by Iran would be very difficult to make up elsewhere. Venezuela, which has enormous reserves but is also suffering under, among other problems, crippling US sanctions, is shrinking out of the world oil market.

Iraq has not recovered its oil production capacity since its “liberation” by the US in 2003 and the al-Qaeda and ISIS insurgencies that followed it.

Last week, Bloomberg reported that “a complete shutdown of Iranian sales could push oil prices above $120 a barrel if Saudi Arabia can’t keep up.” Would that crash the US economy? Perhaps. Is Trump willing to risk it?

President Trump’s demand last week that OPEC “reduce prices now” or US military protection of OPEC countries may not continue almost sounded desperate. But if anything, Trump’s bluntness is refreshing: if, as he suggests, the purpose of the US military – with a yearly total budget of a trillion dollars – is to protect OPEC members in exchange for “cheap oil,” how cheap is that oil?

At the end, China, Russia, and others are not only unlikely to follow Trump’s demands that Iran again be isolated: they in fact stand to benefit from Trump’s bellicosity toward Iran. One Chinese refiner has just announced that it would cancel orders of US crude and instead turn to Iran for supplies. How many others might follow and what might it mean?

Ironically, President Trump’s “get tough” approach to Iran may end up benefitting Washington’s named adversaries Russia and China – perhaps even Iran. The wisest approach is unfortunately the least likely at this point: back off from regime change, back off from war-footing, back off from sanctions. Trump may eventually find that the cost of ignoring this advice may be higher than he imagined.

(Republished from The Ron Paul Institute by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Donald Trump, Iran 
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  1. Vidi says:

    Trump may eventually find that the cost of ignoring [the advice to back off from Iran] may be higher than he imagined.

    Perhaps he’s counting on not being President by then. Another case of IBGYBG (I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone), an attitude that seems to be infecting bankers, Wall Street, and the rest of the U.S. élite lately. A cataclysm is coming, and they can see it.

  2. Why is Zio-America treating Iran with such hostility?

    Iran and Israel are locked in a vicious cold war. Their animosities date back to mythical antiquity. One alleged episode is even celebrated in the Jewish celebration of ‘Purim’.

    Take a look at the breathtaking insight that Gilad Atzmon has to offer about Purim:

    https://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/2018/3/2/purim-special-from-esther-to-aipac

    In any case, Iran and Israel’s antipathies for one another shouldn’t concern superpower America. Except that it does.

    Like American television, Washington happens to be Israeli-held territory. Haven’t you heard?

    This is why Zio-Washington invariably sides with Israel in all of its disputes, even when 1) Israel is the aggressor, 2) even when Israel is slaughtering powerless civilians who are protesting their subjugation, and 3) even when US interests are not at stake or even in play. And this uniform deference from Washington is thoroughly bipartisan. It is ‘business as usual’. It’s basically unanimous. Both Parties. No dissent.

    Many just call it ‘US Mideast policy’. Ironclad. ‘Unshakable’. But don’t laugh or smirk. Doing so might be seen as ‘anti-Semitic’.

    Exactly how traditional ‘US Mideast policies’ benefit the average American however remains a mystery. Many of these questionable policies are never critically examined in the open–at least not the big ones involving that ‘special relationship’ with you-know-who. Never.

    These rigid policies help explain how Cyrpto-Israelis in America–using Washington as their proxy–have successfully brought the US into Israel’s cold war against Iran.

    Zionist operatives have not only orchestrated the decades-long freeze of billions of dollars in Iranian assets that belong to the Iranian people, but they have launched a global (and crypto-Zionist) ‘Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions’ campaign against the relatively peaceful nation of Iran.

    Iran’s crime? That nation’s alleged ‘sponsorship of terrorism’ in support of the Palestinian struggle against Zionist occupation, as well as other anti-Zionist resistance movements in Lebanon, Syria and beyond.

    Yet it is Israel that is foremost occupying power in that region and it is Israel that is the expanding nuclear power.

    Meanwhile, the Zionist-lead BDS campaign against Iran is nothing less than a full-blown economic war. At the same time, Israel benefits from unconditional and continuous US subsidies.

    Politicians who dare question this phenomena–or who wander off the Zionist plantation in Washington–tend to disappear. Rapidly. Journalists, too.

    In no small way, Israel sees its mission to dominate the region and expand its borders as a religious duty. Destiny. This puts Israel in a class by itself. And unlike its neighbors (including Iran) Israel has nuclear WMD.

    Due to Israeli influence here, Americans are not only actively supporting various Zionist war efforts, but they are also paying billions more for their gasoline since Zionists have managed to prohibit the purchase Iranian oil throughout the West. These economic ‘choices’ are what Americans unwittingly make–even though the ‘average Joe’ remains totally unaware of them.

    Indeed, even though Iran wants to be a trading partner with America and bring its oil onto the world market, Zio-Washington says ‘NO!’

    US consumers be damned. The Iranian people be damned.

    This is not the first time that US economic interests have taken a back seat to Israsel’s. Please recall the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Zio-Washington’s intervention on behalf of Israel during that conflict, the ensuing Arab oil embargo, and the disasterous recession that followed.

    But Zio-America never turned it back on Israel, even though American citizens never had the opportunity to determine their allies or policies one way or another. US support of Israel is mandatory. It’s been this way since LBJ.

    Today, Israel is maneuvering Zio-Washington to do to Iran what it did to Iraq, Libya and Syria; namely, spread destabilization and impose ‘creative destruction’ upon all nations that pose any long-term threat to the Zionist State.

    • Replies: @EagleEyeX
    , @alan
    , @mark green
  3. EagleEyeX says:
    @mark green

    Rock on Mark Green ….bravo! Cannot be better said

  4. alan says:
    @mark green

    Touche’ to Mark Green’s observations. Lest we forget, the jew banksters refer to New York as ‘New Jerusalem’. And for good reason. For where their treasure is, there is their focus. An anomaly exists, however; at least in my mind. There is no rational reason for Trump, posing as an ‘isolationist’ who refuses to be sucked into other people’s conflicts, to continue to harass and torment the Iranians. Nothing can be gained from perpetuating middle eastern turmoil. Not even the pseudo-jews will benefit from further conflict. He has already stuck his thumb in the eye of the ‘israelis’, on numerous occasions. He tells the gullible religious crowd that he is a stalwart supporter of ‘israel’. Then he tells the ultra-right that he wants no more Americans soldiers to die on foreign soil. Everyone is getting to hear the song that pleases them. So, why taunt Iran to the point of conflict. Why not prove that he understands the higher ground, and just refuse to do business with those that will not do business with us fairly; and honestly? Our only true enemy is the privately jew-owned Fed, which is the one entity that Trump refuses to harass. But the US is still the most stable and productive economy on the planet, in spite of the Christ hating jews efforts to weaken and neutralize the Christ loving America. All countries need trade with us more than we need trade with them. I cautiously supported and endorsed Trump against the Bush/Obama/Clinton crime syndicate. Hell, what sane person didn’t? However, the more I see of his irrational actions, with no real explanation of why, the less I am comfortable with the current POTUS. Maybe the Helsinki trip will do something to ease my mind. But I remain skeptical…

  5. @mark green

    Correction: This is the article about Purim by Gilad Atzmon that is truly extraordinary:

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2007/03/03/from-esther-to-aipac/

  6. JC says:

    good comments from mark and alan…damn awfully sad that US citizens dont cant see the enemy in side the gates….israel shamir asked 20 years ago why there were 200 jewihs billioniares 50% of the billioniares in the US…30 some years ago CBS was for sale by its jewish owners and ted turner was going to by it word has it the jews were up in arms that their media never fall inot the goyins hands and found redstone to take it over…from lbj to today we have had a the worse zio potus possible and even worse congress’…and there is nothing going forward to change it…

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