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Isis Is Stepping Up Its Atrocities to Counterbalance Its Defeat
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Isis is the most likely inspiration for the bomb explosion on the tube train at Parsons Green station. The attempted mass killing is similar to the attacks in Barcelona, Manchester and London earlier this year in that it aimed to murder the maximum number of civilians in the most public way possible.

Isis is stepping up its attention-grabbing atrocities to counterbalance its defeats on the battlefields in Iraq and Syria. It aims to show strength, instil fear and dominate the news agenda at a time when it has lost the savage nine-month-long struggle for Mosul in Iraq and is being defeated in the battle for its last big urban centres in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa in Syria. The caliphate that Isis declared after its capture of Mosul in 2014, once the size of Great Britain, is today reduced to a few embattled enclaves in the deserts of eastern Syria and western Iraq.

Unfortunately, these defeats make escalating terrorist attacks on civilians more rather than less likely in Iraq, Syria and the West. I am listing the locations being targeted in that order because the great majority of Isis’s victims are Iraqis and Syrians, though this receives scant coverage in the western media which carries 24/7 reportage of Isis-related incidents in Western Europe and the US.

A telling example of this lopsided coverage came this week only a day before the Parsons Green explosion, when Isis gunmen and three suicide bombers attacked a police checkpoint and two restaurants in southern Iraq, killing at least 80 people and injuring hundreds more. Wearing police uniforms and driving captured Iraqi army vehicles, the Isis fighters made their attack on the main road between Baghdad and Basra near the city of Nassiriya. The carefully organised assault was carried out deep inside part of Iraq that is Shia and far from the remaining Isis strongholds in Sunni Arab districts further north. The aim was to prove that, despite its shattering losses in the siege of Mosul, Isis can still operate far from its base areas.

The British Government and public have never quite taken on board that Isis terrorist attacks in Britain and elsewhere are part and parcel of what is happening in the wars in Iraq and Syria. Isis sees the world as a single battlefield. That is why Government initiatives like the “Prevent” campaign are an irrelevance where they are not counterproductive. They purport to identify and expose signs of domestic Islamic radicalism (though nobody knows what these are), but in practice they are a form of collective punishment of the three million British Muslims, serving only to alienate many and push a tiny minority towards sympathy for Isis and al-Qaeda-linked movements.

Such an approach is attractive to governments because it shows them doing something active to quell terrorism, however ineffectual this may be. It also has the useful implication of suggesting that terrorism is domestically generated and that the British foreign ventures in Libya in 2003 and Libya in 2011 were in no way responsible for providing the breeding grounds in which Isis was nurtured. Yet when Jeremy Corbyn suggested after the Manchester bomb that a government policy that had helped produce anarchy in Iraq, Libya and Syria, enabling al-Qaeda-type terrorists to flourish, had much to answer for, he was howled down and execrated as somehow lessening the guilt of the Manchester and London attackers.

The only long-term way of preventing these terrorist attacks is not only to eliminate Isis in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere but to end these wars which have allowed al-Qaeda to become a mass movement. Prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, al-Qaeda and its clones had little strength and had been largely broken up. They were resurrected during the Iraq war, were suppressed with immense difficulty only to rise again in 2011, when the civil war in Syria enabled them to spread and become the dominant force in the armed opposition. This was neither inevitable nor unforeseeable: Iraqi leaders warned that a continuing war in Syria, in which sectarian confrontation was a major factor, would destabilise their own fragile peace. They were ignored and the meteoric emergence of Isis between 2011 and 2014 showed that they knew what they were talking about. I remember in 2012 vainly trying to persuade a senior diplomat that if the war in Syria continued, it could not be contained and would destabilise Iraq. He poo-pooed my fears as exaggerated.

Western powers only truly took on board that the defeat of Isis had to be given total priority in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and the outpouring of Syrian refugees heading from Turkey to Western Europe in the same year. Previously, the governments had been laggard in seeking to carry out such obvious measures as putting pressure on Turkey to close its open border with Syria, across which al-Qaeda and Isis recruits passed unhindered for years. In the event, it was only gradually closed by the advance of the Syrian Kurds along the south side of the Syrian-Kurdish border.

But it is not just the defeat of Isis and al-Qaeda (thinly disguised by frequent changes of name) that is necessary. It is the wars in Iraq and Syria that provided the fertile soil for movements to grow again. Anything that delays the end of these conflicts contributes to the survival of Isis and groups for which the massacre of civilians is an integral part of their day-to-day tactics.

ORDER IT NOW

British and other western governments protest that they do indeed want to end the war, but they have pursued policies that have fuelled it and made its continuation inevitable. They declared that the removal of President Bashar al-Assad was a precondition for peace when the political and military balance of power in Syria made this extremely unlikely. Critics of government policy who pointed this out were denounced as pro-Assad sympathisers. Western policy was a self-defeating mix of fantasy and wishful thinking and fantasy. Remember David Cameron’s non-existent 70,000 moderate fighters, brave fellows who were going to take on Assad and Isis at the same time?

Not all the news is bad: Isis is being defeated in both Syria and Iraq. Its ability to organise and inspire terrorist attacks is going down. Assuming Isis was behind the bomb on the train in Parsons Green, there is some comfort in the fact that it failed to explode fully – an Isis bomb in Catalonia blew up those that were making it. Money, weapons and expertise will be more difficult to supply.

But the weaker Isis becomes the more it will want to show that it is still in business. Attacks in two places as different as Nassiriya and Parsons Green within 24 hours of each other shows that it is a long way from being eradicated. At the end of the day peace in the UK and Europe is indivisible from peace in Iraq and Syria.

(Republished from The Independent by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: ISIS, Terrorism 
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  1. MEexpert says:

    For once I agree with the author. The wars in Iraq and Syria must end and don’t forget Afghanistan and Yemen either. This can only happen if the western powers stop supporting the rebel groups, as well as, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. Stop selling them more weapons. They don’t need them. However, the elephant in the room is Israel. Only Israel benefits from these perpetual wars in the Middle East and her puppet supporters in UK and USA are more than happy to comply with her wishes. As the war rages on in the rest of the Muslim world, the focus on Israel building settlements and confiscating Palestinian land has shifted. No one talks about the plight of the Palestinians. The west must also stop its efforts to divide these countries. USA and UK are fueling the fire for more wars if they continue to support the Kurdish separatist movement.

    ISIS has been defeated mostly by the efforts of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah. Let them continue to eradicate these terrorists from these countries. ISIS fighters, especially those from western countries are disillusioned and are returning to the comfort of their countries. ISIS will claim responsibility for any act of violence to show that it is still alive whether it was responsible for it or not. Ignore the hype but be watchful.

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  2. KA says:

    Because they could do. There is no other reason . They feel emboldened . New recruits to their causes emerge everyday because the benefits are seen accumulating and never ending. A robust legal end if the reputation career and freedom of Margaret Thatcher ( who orchestrated 1990 Gulf war ) and of Tony Blair would have put an end to the violent psychopathic dishonest opportunitistic methods these people use and encourage for career and financial advancements .

    What does a new minted Oxford or Yale graduate seeking public office do? He will not talk of domestic issues . He knows his best shot lies in finding a map, locating a country,branding a leader, and wrapping the entire things as threat to something that is portrayed as greatest achievement mankind ever have come to possess . Media like a raccoon will stay fixated on that garbage bag for years .
    Just look at McCain .

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  3. If I am to understand, we at the very least nurtured Al Qaeda and ISIS as anti-soviet then anti Assad forces respectively.

    We were back being Al Qaeda’s air force in Libya. We shipped the arms we looted in Libya to the proto-ISIS rebels in Syria.

    ISIS and Al Qaeda flourished under the support of us and our head-chopper friends like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Sunni Gulf state Wahhabi crazies.

    So we’ve divorced them for now, again? The most radical Islam crazies? And we’re using the Marxist Kurds to take over the Syrian oil fields from ISIS/Al Qaeda? What could go wrong there, besides the war with Turkey, maybe Iran and Iraq too – this can be a real musical chairs.

    That’s why we didn’t go with the Kurds in the first place – Kurdistan, oh boy! The Kurdistan War. Never thinking past the nose on your face, USA. Just regime change. Mission Accomplished.

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  4. 5371 says:

    The threat was the same before IS and will survive it unchanged. It’s the whole Sunni immigrant population that is the enemy, not one particular organisation. IS outside of Syria/Iraq is just a logo to slap on the terrorist product.

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  5. Bobjil says:

    Isis are US/Nato/Israel/ west foot soldiers. So it figures, if they “defeated” somewhere else that they would pop up somewhere else. Gladio B is what Isis are and nothing more than that.

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  6. The Muslim Invasion continues.

    Africans colonize British wombs, and Muslims take over British cities.

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    • Replies: @Talha
    Uh...I just looked up a list of mayors of three of those cities; Leeds, Birmingham, Oxford. None are Muslim - it looks like two of them had a Muslim mayor in the past.

    I didn't bother with the rest.

    Priss, c'mon man, a little due-diligence please. I get that you're concerned about a growing Muslim populace - that makes sense, but can we stick to facts? That's not much to ask, is it?

    Peace.

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  7. Talha says:
    @Priss Factor
    The Muslim Invasion continues.

    Africans colonize British wombs, and Muslims take over British cities.

    https://twitter.com/ramzpaul/status/909798854668591105

    Uh…I just looked up a list of mayors of three of those cities; Leeds, Birmingham, Oxford. None are Muslim – it looks like two of them had a Muslim mayor in the past.

    I didn’t bother with the rest.

    Priss, c’mon man, a little due-diligence please. I get that you’re concerned about a growing Muslim populace – that makes sense, but can we stick to facts? That’s not much to ask, is it?

    Peace.

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  8. Isn’t Antifanissary a bigger worry in EU than ISIS?

    Sure, ISIS and other Jihadis carry out attacks, but they are sought by authorities and crushed wherever found.

    In contrast, Antifanissary are out in the open and carry out massive street violence. Also, the Power seems to tolerate and even encourage their violence, especially if aimed at patriots.

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  9. David JW says:

    A deceitful article! Support for extremism is not “a tiny minority” among Mahommedans in the UK – polls show around 25% supported the terrorist attack on the Charlie Hebdo office, for example. That is not 100%, but is not a small minority either. Importantly, even the majority Muslim community, which won’t actually support terrorism, won’t move against their own radicals either and provides cover for them. We can’t openly name Islam as the problem for fear of alienating the mainstream Muslims, so they too play a role in our ennervation.

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