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Is Putin the New King of the Middle East?
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“Russia Assumes Mantle of Supreme Power Broker in the Middle East,” proclaimed Britain’s Telegraph. The article began:

“Russia’s status as the undisputed power-broker in the Middle East was cemented as Vladimir Putin continued a triumphant tour of capitals traditionally allied to the US.”

“Donald Trump Has Handed Putin the Middle East on a Plate” was the title of a Telegraph column. “Putin Seizes on Trump’s Syria Retreat to Cement Middle East Role,” said the Financial Times.

The U.S. press parroted the British: Putin is now the new master of the Mideast. And woe is us.

Before concluding that Trump’s pullout of the last 1,000 U.S. troops in Syria is America’s Dunkirk, some reflection is needed.

Yes, Putin has played his hand skillfully. Diplomatically, as the Brits say, the Russian president is “punching above his weight.”

He gets on with everyone. He is welcomed in Iran by the Ayatollah, meets regularly with Bibi Netanyahu, is a cherished ally of Syria’s Bashar Assad, and this week was being hosted by the King of Saudi Arabia and the royal rulers of the UAE. October 2019 has been a triumphal month.

Yet, consider what Putin has inherited and what his capabilities are for playing power broker of the Middle East.

He has a single naval base on the Med, Tartus, in Syria, which dates to the 1970s, and a new air base, Khmeimim, also in Syria.

The U.S. has seven NATO allies on the Med — Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, Albania, Greece and Turkey, and two on the Black Sea, Romania and Bulgaria. We have U.S. forces and bases in Afghanistan, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Djibouti. Russia has no such panoply of bases in the Middle East or Persian Gulf.

We have the world’s largest economy. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, and not a tenth the size of ours.

And now that we are out of Syria’s civil war and the Kurds have cut their deal with Damascus, consider what we have just dumped into Vladimir Putin’s lap. He is now the man in the middle between Turkey and Syria.

He must bring together dictators who detest each other. There is first President Erdogan, who is demanding a 20-mile deep strip of Syrian borderland to keep the Syrian Kurds from uniting with the Turkish Kurds of the PKK. Erdogan wants the corridor to extend 280 miles, from Manbij, east of the Euphrates, all across Syria, to Iraq.

Then there is Bashar Assad, victorious in his horrific eight-year civil war, who is unlikely to cede 5,000 square miles of Syrian territory to a permanent occupation by Turkish troops.

Reconciling these seemingly irreconcilable Syrian and Turkish demands is now Putin’s problem. If he can work this out, he ought to get the Nobel Prize.

“Putin is the New King of Syria,” ran the op-ed headline in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal.

ORDER IT NOW

The Syria of which Putin is now supposedly king contains Hezbollah, al-Qaida, ISIS, Iranians, Kurds, Turks on its northern border and Israelis on its Golan Heights. Five hundred thousand Syrians are dead from the civil war. Half the pre-war population has been uprooted, and millions are in exile in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Europe.

If Putin wants to be king of this, and it is OK with Assad, how does that imperil the United States of America, 6,000 miles away?

Wednesday, two-thirds of the House Republicans joined Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats to denounce Trump’s decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and dissolve our alliance with the Kurds. And Republican rage over the sudden abandonment of the Kurds is understandable.

But how long does the GOP believe we should keep troops in Syria and control the northeastern quadrant of that country? If the Syrian army sought to push us out, under what authority would we wage war against a Syrian army inside Syria?

And if the Turks are determined to secure their border, should we wage war on that NATO ally to stop them? Would U.S. planes fly out of Turkey’s Incirlik air base to attack Turkish soldiers fighting in Syria?

If Congress believes we have interests in Syria so vital we should be willing to go to war for them — against Syria, Turkey, Russia or Iran — why does Congress not declare those interests and authorize war to secure them?

Our foreign policy elites have used Trump’s decision to bash him and parade their Churchillian credentials. But those same elites appear to lack the confidence to rally the nation to vote for a war to defend what they contend are vital American interests and defining American values.

If Putin is king of Syria, it is because he was willing to pay the price in blood and treasure to keep his Russia’s toehold on the Med and save his ally Bashar Assad, who would have gone under without him.

Who dares wins. Now let’s see how Putin likes his prize.

Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “Nixon’s White House Wars: The Battles That Made and Broke a President and Divided America Forever.”

Copyright 2019 Creators.com.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Kurds, Putin, Russia, Syria, Turks 
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  1. Alfa158 says:

    1. Thinking that anyone can be Supreme Power Broker in a place as dysfunctional as the Middle East falls under the heading of delusional.
    2. Someone please explain why we need to be this mythical Supreme Power Broker in the Middle East instead of Russia.

  2. Hossein says:

    The middle east will certainly be beter off with likes of China and Russia rather than the US that for the last 70 years have used every means to destabilize and abuse middle eastern countries on behalf of the jew settler state. Chinese and Russians build infrastructures and the neocons in America, working for Jews, dream of obliterating cities and committing mass murder . That is a huge difference.

    Hopefully President Trump will go further and tell the jews that no more American blood and money will be wasted on them and that their welfare recieving days are over thus saving countless American lives and trillions that can be used for rebuilding America’s infrastructure, economy and communities across the country.

    Prayers.

  3. And who is the new kingmaker? Don’t keep us in suspense.

  4. A123 says:

    King… No… Major league influencer yes.

    Putin’s biggest advantage is the Chechen corridor is controlled by a strong man who will shoot non-Chechen invaders in the face (if they are lucky). By ruthlessly suppressing Islam, Putin can stand against George Soros and his “Great Replacement” Mass Migration theology.

    Both the U.S. And the EU have much to learn from Putin. Less Islam = More Peace. (1)

    PEACE 😇

    ______

    (1) Putin quote from the thread:
    http://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/trump-wants-to-end-the-stupid-wars/

  5. Dumbo says:

    We have the world’s largest economy. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, and not a tenth the size of ours.

    I hear this a lot, but is it true? Also, Russia, just because of its sheer size and historical position, has an importance in geopolitics that is far above smaller countries, despite what their economy is. Also, they seem to invest more in the military than all European countries put together.

    If Putin wants to be king of this,

    I doubt Putin wants to be the “king” of anything, much less the Middle East. Just seems to want to help countries that were traditional allies and commercial partners, such as Iran and Syria. In this, maybe the U.S., who betrays all its supposed allies at a drop of a hat, has something to learn.

    how does that imperil the United States of America, 6,000 miles away?

    It doesn’t, but American politicians, many of whom are in the hands of you-know-who, are obsessed with the Middle East and particularly a little country there.

  6. anastasia says:

    He’s the most reasonable leader in the world. He’s reasonable. Listen to what he says, and look at what he does. He is ALWAYS reasonable in all he says and does.

    • Replies: @Paw
  7. Denis says:

    And now that we are out of Syria’s civil war and the Kurds have cut their deal with Damascus, consider what we have just dumped into Vladimir Putin’s lap. He is now the man in the middle between Turkey and Syria.

    This is precisely accurate. Perhaps Putin will pull another rabbit out of his hat, but the truth is that all America has sacrificed to Russia right now is an extremely unenviable position.

    • LOL: FB
  8. Jews are kings over the US that is king over all the world.

    But they want EVERYTHING.

  9. Trump actually asserting his authority in Syria is treason. It’s treason against the Empire. Trump is off the reservation. He can’t win against the people who own the congress.

    Wednesday, two-thirds of the House Republicans joined Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats to denounce Trump’s decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and dissolve our alliance with the Kurds.

    The Senate will convict for the simple reason the Senate is corrupt. Trump will be removed. Could be as soon as January.

    It’s tough shit if you bigots don’t like it.

  10. No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Putin is not and does want to be a king of the Middle east.

    Putin is only scavenger, He picks up from the garbage broken stuff which he know that he can use it than fixes it. (like me) Blessed are the people that broke things and do not know to how to fix it. (USA)

  11. anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:

    Is Putin the New King of the Middle East?

    Has Bibi finally been assassinated?

  12. And Republican rage over the sudden abandonment of the Kurds is understandable.
    —————————————————————————–
    No Pat. It isn’t you liar.
    This show the power of the Israel Lobby. The Kurds are their proxies. Marxist Kurds.
    Now, if these guys had expressed outrage over the Middle East christian communities destroyed by decades of war and discrimination and bullying then they might be believable.
    But they aren’t. And neither are you, you hack.

    • Disagree: Wally
    • Replies: @Wally
    , @Anonymous
  13. @WorkingClass

    Trump will be re-elected in 2020 and you will eat your words.

  14. Paw says:
    @anastasia

    Putin is the One.There is no one else. Can not see any.
    And What a miracle, he pulls now ?
    He had promised only, to help Syria. This and consequences of it ,/what he did /, now he harvests .
    No one speaks against him, in the Middle East.
    Buchanan “economy”, is not the first /China now/, and not the best..I do not know ,even guess, what it is..And what will be in couple of days.

  15. Pamela says:

    This nonsense about Russia’s supposedly minuscule economy is constantly being trotted out to massage the hurt sensibilities of the dying Empire.
    You can’t just quote an economy. You need to look at how independent it is, how self sufficient it is, how varied the range of products it makes. You need to observe how it is trending, and how its’ GDP is reflected against debt.
    On all counts Russia is flourishing, is buying gold like there’s no tomorrow, is increasing it’s trade around the world annually, and in terms of PPP, is 5th in the world only and growing.
    What is more, it’s ruble is gaining in respect as opposed to the US$ known to be about to collapse, and many industries sucking America dry, like the MIC, are, in Russia, Government owned. This means Russia gets infinitely more “bang for it’s buck” on all counts.
    America has over 1 million homeless and growing. Russia has very very few – last count 64,000. Do the maths.

    • Agree: Robjil, Carroll Price
    • Replies: @Amerimutt Golems
  16. Wally says:
    @Alfa158

    said:
    ” Someone please explain why we need to be this mythical Supreme Power Broker in the Middle East instead of Russia.”

    Because “that shitty little country” demands we do it, for their interests, of course.

  17. Wally says:
    @steinbergfeldwitzcohen

    Sorry, I meant agree.

    It’s late.

  18. This was so painful to read.

  19. Putin is not, not wants to king of anything…except perhaps Russia.
    What Putin is, is a relatively rational, trustworthy broker. Unlike the US, Russia wants stability in the ME. Stability means business, it means investment & integration.
    He does not act in the primary interests of the small tribal entity.
    Pat is right to point out the revolting hypocracy of the DC swamp.
    However, Pat’s whole
    U-S-A !! crap about bases in the Med ‘ & relative sizes of economies etc is unappealing defensiveness. Then we get the jeering notion that the whole Pandora’s box of ME problems has been dumped into Putin’s “lap” & he’s welcome to them (he-he-he !)
    Get a grip Pat. Putin & his government will do as they usually do: try to reach rational, even enlightened compromise win-win agreements with all parties.
    Pat is right, Russia has paid in blood & treasure for his position — let’s hope that his hard won credibility can bring some peace to the long suffering ME.

  20. @A123

    Allow me to add that Islam is not necessarily a source of war, injustice, chaos, or destabilization. In fact, it has many virtues. It simply does not belong in the modern, quasi-secular (post-Christian) West. And the same can be said of Zionist Judaism (only more so). Good fences make good neighbors.

    It’s tragic and criminal that Zio-America has enormously damaged so many Islamic countries.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  21. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @animalogic

    Yup. He did a bunch of interviews in Sochi before his ME trip. Rational, informed, articulate.

    Vladimir Putin: Praises Saudi-Russian relations, condemns Aramco attacks in interview

    • Replies: @anonymous
  22. Anonymous[102] • Disclaimer says:
    @steinbergfeldwitzcohen

    > Middle East christian communities destroyed by decades of war and discrimination and bullying

    Did they not turn the other cheek sufficiently? Did they not love their enemies with enough fervor?

  23. Anonymous[102] • Disclaimer says:
    @mark green

    • Good fences make good neighbors.
    –vs.–
    • For I was hungry and you gave me food; I was thirsty and you gave me drink; I was a stranger and you took me in.

    Which is better?

    • Replies: @anonymous
    , @Anon
  24. Hossein says:
    @A123

    Muslims are not enemies of Russia and unlike Jews have never stabbed it in the back. There are more than 40 million Muslims in Russia today living in harmony with other religious groups.
    The ones who stir the pot to cretae chaos are international Zionists who gutted Russia after the fall of the Soviet union and who wanted to dissect mother Russia into small pieces run by oligarchs.

    • Replies: @Avery
    , @Swedish Family
  25. Avery says:

    {“We have the world’s largest economy. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, and not a tenth the size of ours.”}

    This ridiculous statement is repeated by Western commentators so often, that they have come to believe it has any connection to being able to influence world affairs.
    Case in point: I don’t know what North Korea’s economy is, but it is nothing compared to SK or Japan. Yet both countries give NK wide berth, and US has no choice but to tread very carefully when NK is concerned, because…..?

    Russia is the only country in the world today that can wipe out US, and Western Europe, and NATO, and all its hangers on (so-called “allies”). And US is the only country that can wipe out Russia. Each country having an order of magnitude larger in the number of nuke warheads than the other nuke powers. And I don’t know about US, but Russia is constantly upgrading its nuke strike capabilities.

    Our large economy and the ability it gives US to spend – waste- on its “defense” more than Russia, China, France, England, etc, etc …..combined, means very little. Russia uses its limited military budget to produce weapons mainly for its defense, weapons that work, and weapons that don’t cost 10X than they really should. US “defense” spending has very little to do with US’s defense.

    US wastes $10s of billions building bloated aircraft carriers that are totally useless in today’s world. And then you have to spends $10s of billions annually maintaining that useless fleet of 10 or so aircraft carriers, their personnel, their weaponry, jets, etc

    Western thinking links everything to money/economy: money is certainly important, but is only one of the variables or influencers in world affairs. (e.g. being trustworthy, being perceived as a genuine, honest broker, …..)

  26. Avery says:
    @Hossein

    {There are more than 40 million Muslims in Russia today }

    Where did you get that number?

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  27. anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    Christian / New Testament

    For I was hungry and you gave me food; I was thirsty and you gave me drink; I was a stranger and you took me in.

    vs

    Jewish / Hebrew Scriptures
    “And when the LORD your God brings you into the land He swore to your fathers, to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob, that He would give you—a land with great and splendid cities that you did not build, 11with houses full of every good thing with which you did not fill them, with wells that you did not dig, and with vineyards and olive groves that you did not plant— and when you eat and are satisfied, . . .” (Deuteronomy)

    So I gave you a land on which you did not toil and cities that you did not build, and now you live in them and eat from vineyards and olive groves that you did not plant.’ (Joshua)

    Query: Which one gets the bulk of US taxpayer dollars in foreign aid?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  28. @A123

    Putin never said what you attribute to him. In fact, he couldn’t have said that at all. These are all fantasies of discussion boards’ fanboys. Putin, however, was explicit on the issue of white christian civilization at 2017 Valdai forum and what he said is widely available on YouTube.

  29. We have the world’s largest economy. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, and not a tenth the size of ours.

    Pat really needs to update himself on the global power balance, including economies–I know, cognitive dissonance is a very unpleasant thing, and I am not even talking about Russia’s economy, which is much-much larger than 1/10 of an American one, I am talking about US economy which is much-much smaller than pundits (most of who never held a real day-time job in their life) try to portray.

  30. Anonymous[102] • Disclaimer says:
    @anonymous

    • Q: Which one gets the bulk of US taxpayer dollars in foreign aid?
    • A: Goyim (Gentiles) “owe it to them” (Jews.)

    p.s. Don’t forget that “New Testament (New Covenant)” is a Jewish concept found in Jeremiah 31:31-34 upon which Jewish storytellers expanded into their complete Holy Hook.

  31. @Avery

    Where did you get that number?

    Most likely form Wahhabi sites which BS about “triumphant” march of Islam around planet where everyone immediately converts to it once they see shining examples of Islam’s achievements. In reality Islam in Russia is represented by barely 10 million people. Among those 10 million who knows how many I did and will drink vodka and eat salo with. Russia’s “Islamization” is also a favorite tune of all kinds of uber-liberal “opposition”, most of it financed by the West.

  32. I see precious little grounds for Mr. Buchanan to go rah-rah … not with Turkey about to turn East.
    Look at the map – there goes the Black Sea (cum Ukraine; with Dniepropetrowsk and Odessa gone the rest will not be worth holding onto), Iraq and Syria.

    Of course Trump is right – but they will shred him.

    • Replies: @bluedog
  33. anonymous[340] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    Thanks for posting this. I generally don’t spend the time necessary to take in videos, but this was well worth it.

    Anyone who accepts the US Establishment take on Russia and Mr. Putin will be surprised (and, in comparison to American politicians, embarrassed) to see how well he presents his views.

  34. Good piece by Pat–accurately gauges Putin’s accomplishments in the Middle East, mocking those who exaggerate them and reminding us that any role in the region for any power comes with inherent dangers that may only manifest themselves in time.

    Balancing all the competing strategic agendas on Russia’s shoe-string budget won’t be easy, and his openings to Israel, Iran and Turkey may or may not be reconcilable in the future. But that he has been able to accomplish as much as he has up to this point is impressive. At least he knows one thing that no US president seems to grasp–that subordinating policy in the region to Israeli demands is a recipe for disaster. Just that one bit of knowledge puts him light years beyond our clownocracy. Of course, China appreciates this basic truth at least as well as Putin does.

  35. @Dumbo

    I’m not buying what Pat, and other western commenters, are selling, that Russia’s economy is smaller than increasingly dysfunctional Italy, which can’t seem to keep a stable government in place. David Stockman once wrote something to the effect that the view from the top of the Empire State building shows an economy greater than all of Russia (apologizes to Stockman if I got that wrong). The late and unlamented ultra hawk John McCain called Russia a gas station.

    Well, if Russia’s economy is that small, then Mr. Putin’s magic tricks are greater than Houdini. Unlike Obama, he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize – but has little chance of getting it.

    Why, I wonder, is Pat so dismissive of Mr. Putin’s accomplishment when he finishes by saying “Now let’s see how Putin likes his prize.” What has Mr. Trump “dumped onto Putin’s lap” anyway? Please don’t go all Cold War Warrior on us, Pat.

    • Replies: @Charlie
  36. @Dumbo

    Putin would be familiar with The Sorrows of Empire described by the late Chalmers Johnson, and wants nothing to do with them..

    • Agree: bluedog
  37. @animalogic

    I already used up my agree button, but your comment is completely spot on. Shame on Pat for ruining his analysis by dumping on Russia’s accomplishments.

  38. Virgile says:

    The Dems and Reps don’t give a damn about the Kurds!
    Their only concern is Israel and its isolation now that Big Brother USA is not present to protect its little darling from the big bad wolf , Iran.
    Trump will be fought by the Israel lovers in the US congress under the fake accusations of tarnishing US loyalty reputation (that no one believes in) and of killing the Kurds ( now that the Kurds are now protected by the Syrian army)
    Nobody will ever mention that they are fighting because Israelis (not the Kurds) are in a state of panic, feeling abandonned and helpless in front of the ever growing threats that will oblige them to make serious concessions in any deal with the Palestinians
    Trump has put the Israelis in front of a reality: they should seek peace because the USA won’t help them if they start a war

  39. @WorkingClass

    Hey, WorkingClass, what makes us “bigots” if we don’t agree with you???

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
  40. Charlie says:
    @follyofwar

    Not throwing money at F35, Zumwalt, LCS, SDI, etc, etc, makes an economy smaller. Maybe that’s a good thing.

  41. @Dumbo

    “particularly a {shitty}little country there.”

    You left out part of it. The young folks in my family probably don’t even know that ‘shitty’ and ‘little’ are two different words.

  42. @A123

    Putin is probably doing the best he can with the Caucasus given that the Muslims there know that the Russian population is old, aging further, and dwindling. Russia doesn’t have the manpower to occupy Chechnya, Dagestan, etc. effectively over the longer term, or to engage in a heavy-casualty ground slog down there, and nonRussian Muslims currently in the RF know it.

    But is he suppressing Islam? Not at all.

    With Russians failing to reproduce enough to replace themselves, all Muslims need to take over in some decades is a replacement-level birthdate (or a below-replacement birthdate that’s still higher than the russians’, plus some continued central Asian immigration).

    I dread the prospect of a Muslim russia, but it seems to be coming slowly along. Putin isn’t suppressing Islam, and without more Russians being born it’s hard to see how he’d have the numbers on the ground and physical force to do so.

  43. King, mantle of supreme power, yadda yadda. It’s clearly propaganda choreographed by CIA, with Project Mockingbird slogans adapted to tweak Trump’s imagined political and psychological vulnerabilities. “Cut and run” was their previous try at this.

    Putin’s not a king because he doesn’t have absolute sovereignty. The government of Russia is in fact a model of responsible sovereignty in world-standard law: Russia retains its authority only to the extent that meets its responsibilities. If citizens are dissatisfied with Russian government conduct, they can go over the government’s head to the outside world. That’s in their constitution. By contrast, the kiddy-pimping torture cowards running this country from CIA will kill you before they let you appeal to the outside world. They think they’re the kings, but they’re sneaky little pussies who got their ass kicked. We’re going to dismantle their regime and try them.

  44. @steinbergfeldwitzcohen

    Yeah, I’m guessing that the house will impeach Trump, who will narrowly win re-election and then be acquitted by the Senate (albeit with as many as 50-60 votes to convict).

    Conviction on articles of impeachment requires a 2/3 vote in the senate, not a simple majority, and that is what will save trump.

  45. @follyofwar

    Sorry follyofwar. That was meant for laughs. And to express the attitude of the Left.

    • Replies: @follyofwar
  46. @steinbergfeldwitzcohen

    I will be happy to be wrong. Recent developments cause me to think the way I do. Future developments may well change my mind.

  47. FB says: • Website

    Well…as usual, the dinosaur Buchanan provides the least helpful take in mushroomland…

    First he should make up his mind if the US getting out of the senseless wars business is a good thing or a bad thing…

    His piece here is mostly sour grapes directed at Russia because the US crazy class is freaking out about Putin getting his way in Syria…

    But the fact is that the US way did not work…it has never worked…it continues not to work…and it will never work anywhere, anytime…

    Trump wants to try a new and sensible way on which he campaigned…stop this unworkable approach…cut the losses…go home and regroup…a very reasonable start to ending the insanity…

    Unfortunately there is a massive power bloc in the US that is much more powerful than a so-called ‘president’…

    This is clear to anyone who is paying attention to the completely insane Congress [both houses]…and the totally rabid war mongering media…

    Behind all this there is also the deep establishment that has plenty of power to put a spoke in the wheels of a single man sitting in the ovaltine office…the so-called ‘intelligence’ community…the MIC parasites who are interested only in feathering their own personal nests…and of course the corporate plutocracy and Wall Street flim flam artists that have artfully taken over just about everything that isn’t nailed down…

    The sheeple of course are either not paying attention, or are completely brainwashed and functionally braindead…

    Those in so-called Middle America who have seen their lives and communities drying up on the vine and voted for an end to the insanity are probably outnumbered by the aforementioned zombie claque…

  48. @Hossein

    There are more than 40 million Muslims in Russia today living in harmony with other religious groups.

    That figure is false. Russia has about 10 million Muslims, out of a population of 147 million, and they are heavily concentrated in the Caucasus. The Central, Northwestern, Southern, Siberian, and Far Eastern Districts are all less that 4% Muslim*, and even the North Caucasian District, which is the most Muslim district by far, only reaches 41%. The data is from 2012, but it should hold up reasonably well since Russian Muslims (at least in the past few years) have rather modest fertility rates.

    It’s true, however, that Muslims and Christians get along well in Russia.

    * Perhaps even less than 3% Muslim, since the Crimea, which was not part of Russia when this census was carried out, is now part of the Southern District. I note also that the Far Eastern District has more self-declared pagans (3%) than Muslims (<2.5%)!

  49. @Swedish Family

    Perhaps even less than 3% Muslim, since the Crimea, which was not part of Russia when this census was carried out, is now part of the Southern District.

    Sorry, I lost my thinking there for a moment. The Southern District will obviously have more than the <4% Muslims recorded in the 2012 census if one adds in the Crimea, which is about 12.6% Tatar (most of whom would be Muslim).

  50. TGD says:

    I don’t know what’s going on in Pat’s head. During the run-up to the 2nd Iraq war, Pat wrote column after column denouncing George W. Bush and the neocons for fomenting a new war against Saddam Hussein and ignoring the inevitable consequences. For that stance, he was pilloried by republicans and fellow conservatives. One (((columnist))) wrote a piece calling Pat and others “unpatriotic” for not supporting the war. Everybody knows what happened in that war, which is still going on.

    Pat seems to have now taken it upon himself to defend Trump’s actions and by implication the Turks assault on the Kurds, who fought valiantly on behalf of US interests in the region. The Turks are a nasty bunch. This nastiness was exposed in the movie, “Midnight Express,” based on actual events and conditions in a Turkish prison and the Turkish justice system’s corrupt handling of an American youth caught up with a small quantity of drugs.

    Wise up Pat and stop playing defense for our dopey president and Erdogan.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  51. Martin60 says:

    Mt Buchanan is a consummate debater, he likes to exaggerate or twist things a little in order to make a point.
    You take him too literally.

  52. @WorkingClass

    All is forgiven (lol). But the reason I don’t think that Trump will be removed by the Senate is because they don’t want to start a civil war (do you see the size of the crowds that Trump is still getting at his rallies?), or maybe because the GOP isn’t self-destructive enough to fall on its sword for the sake of a few Kurds. Per Rick Sanchez on RT America yesterday, only 16 Kurds have been killed thus far in the fighting. That’s hardly a genocide.

    • Replies: @WorkingClass
  53. @RadicalCenter

    Putin is probably doing the best he can with the Caucasus given that the Muslims there know that the Russian population is old, aging further, and dwindling. Russia doesn’t have the manpower to occupy Chechnya, Dagestan, etc. effectively over the longer term, or to engage in a heavy-casualty ground slog down there, and nonRussian Muslims currently in the RF know it.

    The error here is your assumption that Russia wishes to hold on to Chechnya and Ingushetia in the long run. My strong belief is that Russia is merely holding on to them because the alternative (independence) is still too risky. Once that risk goes away, Russia will be happy to let them go.

    Dagestan is trickier to predict since it’s such a multicultural mess. As I remember Karlin’s argument, Dagestanis remain happy with Moscow since anyone with a brain can see that the only thing keeping Dagestanis from endless civil war is a strong and fair external power. North Ossetians I know next to nothing about, but I would expect them to stay part of Russia given the ever-present danger of invasion their brothers in the south, the South Ossetians (historically the same people, as I understand), face from the Georgians.

    • Replies: @frankie p
    , @RadicalCenter
  54. @animalogic

    Putin puts his people first, his country first, just like Hitler did.

    Putin has no desire to rule the world, nor did Hitler.

    Globalist jews are the only crew that wants to rule over all of humanity.

    • Replies: @Corvinus
  55. Reeking badly of sour grapes. The entire strategy of The New West is to denigrate what Russia and China can do, that they, the West, can no longer do or control: 5G will kill us all, so Luddism is the new black; power broking in the ME with the energy giants is the new Vietnam; construction skills and projects are overrated cuz they just result in ghost cities and bridges to nowhere; who needs effective missile defense cuz hybrid war is the new vogue; the list is endless. This is how civilizations enter a Dark Age–voluntarily.

    • Agree: Erebus, RadicalCenter
  56. Who dares wins. Now let’s see how Putin likes his prize.

    LOL.

    Brits claim the SAS are better than Green Berets, Delta Force, Navy SEALs, Rangers etc.

  57. @Pamela

    Russia’s wealth is in natural resources (commodities) not fiat money and derivatives.

    However, unlike the Chinese and Gulf Arabs and Norway, Russia lacks a proper sovereign wealth fund. This could give the country huge economic leverage.

  58. @FB

    Behind all this there is also the deep establishment that has plenty of power to put a spoke in the wheels of a single man sitting in the ovaltine office…the so-called ‘intelligence’ community…the MIC parasites who are interested only in feathering their own personal nests…and of course the corporate plutocracy and Wall Street flim flam artists that have artfully taken over just about everything that isn’t nailed down…

    Since you seem to know a thing or two about Russia, would you mind my asking how these things are working out over there? Does Putin have the Russian MIC in check, or is he as helpless as American congressmen? (I will forgive you this once for referring to me, during the bombing last spring of that science lab in Damascus, as “the Swedish Manson Family”. :)).

    • Replies: @FB
  59. And if the Turks are determined to secure their border, should we wage war on that NATO ally to stop them?

    Yes, but it will certainly be awkward when the Turks invoke NATO Article 5 and we have to go to war with ourselves.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @bluedog
  60. @TGD

    Pat seems to have now taken it upon himself to defend Trump’s actions and by implication the Turks assault on the Kurds, who fought valiantly on behalf of US interests in the region. The Turks are a nasty bunch. This nastiness was exposed in the movie, “Midnight Express,” based on actual events and conditions in a Turkish prison and the Turkish justice system’s corrupt handling of an American youth caught up with a small quantity of drugs.

    Come on. A Hollywood film — a rather good one, as it happens — is no guide to reality. However loathsome Erdogan is, all the signs are that the Kurds are, at best, marginally better.

  61. Cyrano says:

    Russia might have the economy the size of Italy, but its defense minister Boris Godunov (it’s pronounced Goodenough) says that their military is good enough to wipe out the entire world few times over. Sorry, I had to borrow this joke from a movie – I forgot which one it was, something with US mafia.

    Anyhow, McCain called Russia a gas station masquerading as a country. Well, guess what, it looks like US is becoming a farm masquerading as a country. Trump just boasted a few days ago that US signed the biggest trade deal with China ever – to supply them with agriculture products. I guess it’s befitting for a country that imports 3rd worlders to turn their economy 3rd world too, where they get to supply a first world economy – China with 3rd world products – food.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7565217/Trump-boasts-trade-deal-China-growers-straining-meet-demand.html

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  62. FB says: • Website
    @Swedish Family

    Well…here’s the thing…

    Putin has his own problem of consolidating power and keeping an admittedly much smaller [but still far too dangerous] plutocracy in check…

    Here is where I like the Chinese Communist Party approach…they have very effectively centralized power…they do have some very wealthy individuals, but they are not allowed to exercise any kind of political power under any circumstance…

    The Party has done a very good job for the ordinary folks…that is a simple fact…

    The problem in the US is a many-headed Hydra…it’s not just he MIC…it’s the corporate and finance plutocracy, plus the deep ‘security’ state which works for them…simply because they are the paymasters…

    Under this system, the people are nothing more than serfs…trading their lifeblood for simple existence [that gets more primitive and hand to mouth by the moment]…

    The US MIC is a problem only insofar as it is deeply embedded into this plutocracy…so the problem has become that it is unable to now achieve its stated purpose of providing weaponry or technological advances that can keep up with competitors…

    The same is true for the education system, which is in fact the foundation stone for the defense production sector…the military is still a very functional institution, but note that the military is NOT a democracy…

    It is only the political and politicized leadership of the military that is part of the problem…

    The Russian MIC is firmly in government hands…all those armaments producers are state-owned enterprises…the same is true for other major cogs n the machine, such as the hydrocarbon energy sector…as well as the even more impressive nuclear energy sector, where Russia is indisputably the dominant player on the global scale…

    I have mentioned previously that the real threat from China is one that most are oblivious to…their ambitions in space…namely landing on the moon and establishing a permanent presence there…

    If they can do that, both the US and Russia will be absolutely helpless, for simple technical reasons that most laymen are completely oblivious to…but which is no secret to knowledgeable specialists who have thought this through…

    The same is true for either of the other two…we may be on the cusp of an epochal upheaval…and it all has to do with the new and very real race to the moon that is now getting under way…

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
    , @Denis
  63. NPleeze says:

    Reconciling these seemingly irreconcilable Syrian and Turkish demands is now Putin’s problem. If he can work this out, he ought to get the Nobel Prize.

    Erdogan will be amendable to Damascus controlling all of Syria as long as Damascus controls the border and no Kurdish weaponry/militia are in the 20-mile border zone. End of the day they weren’t going to just sit there as US built up a “terrorist army” on its border – Erdogan knows very well the US would use them constantly to extort and threaten and blackmail Turkey, and that this represents a vital national security interest to them.

    He must bring together dictators who detest each other.

    Neither Erdogan, nor Putin, nor Assad is a dictator. You just destroy your credibility when you use Globalist propaganda. The Evil Empire calls them dictators because they do not take orders from the Evil Empire – which is obviously the Global Thug, Terrorist and Dictator.

    And Republican rage over the sudden abandonment of the Kurds is understandable.

    No, it isn’t. They don’t give a fuck about the Kurds. All they care about is being the Global Tyrant and Bully, and they rage over any indication that their Evil Empire may be crumbling. Fuck those evil butchers, under Nuremburg laws they should all be swinging from lampposts.

    should we wage war on that NATO ally to stop them?

    Ironically, if the US attacked Turkey, it is Turkey that could invoke Article V against the US. What would that do, aside from tear NATO apart?

  64. frankie p says:
    @Swedish Family

    The Russians need to keep Dagestan in order to continue to dominate men’s freestyle wrestling!

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  65. Deep State on US Quitting Hotel Syria…

  66. Erebus says:
    @The Alarmist

    One hears this all the time, but it’s wrong. Nobody is treaty bound to go to war under Article 5. Each participant calibrates the extent to which they’ll participate according to their interests.

    Article 5 states:

    …if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

    The NATO website goes on to make it perfectly clear…

    This is an individual obligation on each Ally and each Ally is responsible for determining what it deems necessary in the particular circumstances.

    In 2015, when a Turkish F16 shot down the returning RuAF Su24 that it claimed violated Turkish airspace, NATO told Turkey: “You’re on your own.” The only time it’s been invoked was by the US after 9/11 and many of the members participated in a notably desultory manner.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  67. @FB

    The US MIC is a problem only insofar as it is deeply embedded into this plutocracy…so the problem has become that it is unable to now achieve its stated purpose of providing weaponry or technological advances that can keep up with competitors…

    The same is true for the education system, which is in fact the foundation stone for the defense production sector…the military is still a very functional institution, but note that the military is NOT a democracy…

    It is only the political and politicized leadership of the military that is part of the problem…

    Excellent point. I hadn’t considered before the idea that the MIC can be viewed (in the best of worlds) as something apart from the present system, but it’s obviously true, and one need only look to China and Russia to see why this is so.

    I have mentioned previously that the real threat from China is one that most are oblivious to…their ambitions in space…namely landing on the moon and establishing a permanent presence there…

    If they can do that, both the US and Russia will be absolutely helpless, for simple technical reasons that most laymen are completely oblivious to…but which is no secret to knowledgeable specialists who have thought this through…

    The same is true for either of the other two…we may be on the cusp of an epochal upheaval…and it all has to do with the new and very real race to the moon that is now getting under way…

    But what good would a moonbase do? How would it give you any edge that you couldn’t get already, back on earth?

    • Replies: @FB
    , @nymom
  68. @frankie p

    The Russians need to keep Dagestan in order to continue to dominate men’s freestyle wrestling!

    Priorities, priorities … 🙂

  69. SteveK9 says:
    @RadicalCenter

    You do realize that America’s white European-origin population has a very low birth rate as well, probably lower than ethnic Russians. Russia is trying to promote higher birth rates, although not many countries with low birth rate have been able to accomplish much.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  70. @Cyrano

    but its defense minister Boris Godunov (it’s pronounced Goodenough)

    LOL!! You just made my day. I also remember some hilarious “scenarios” some US military people were coming up about USSR, especially using such Tsarist names as General Kuropatkin. Truth is, however, I served with a grand-great (or vice-versa) son of one Tsarist general who Montgomery counted as one of the best military leaders of all time (at that point). Still, Godunov…BTW, you know who plays main German dude (after, God Bless his soul, Alan Rickman) in original Die Hard?

    • Replies: @Cyrano
  71. JasonT says:

    While the headlines are hyperbole, it is clear the Russia is diplomatic heavy weight compared to the 90 lb weakling that is U.S. diplomacy.

    “Five hundred thousand Syrians are dead from the civil war.”

    There was never a “civil war”. The destruction in Syria was caused by CIA and Mossad meddling. The deaths of Syrians is all on the U.S. Simply put, America and Israel caused the problems in Syria. The U.S. was in no way a contributor to the solution.

    What possible “interests” does America have in Syria, except to steal their resources and permit Israel to steal their land?

    Russia did not broker peace in Syria to win a prize other than to prevent U.S. and Israeli sponsored terrorists to cause trouble in Russia. Russia succeeded in preventing this happening from Syria. That is the prize.

  72. Pat sounds a bit naive in this article.

    There is no king or power broker in the Middle East.

    There are no winners, only losers.

    Its millennial hatreds constitute an all-destructive vortex; or as Yeats said,
    “the widening gyre,” with the beast slouching toward Bethlehem.

    Best one can hope is it does not drag the rest of the planet into global war.

  73. FB says: • Website
    @Swedish Family

    But what good would a moonbase do?

    Ahh…you will have to wait until my blog article is up…

    But in the meantime, here is a clue from about 5,000 years ago when man first domesticated the horse and invented the wheel…

    This is now known definitively to have happened on the Pontic Steppe [southern Russia and Ukraine]…David Anthony’s The Horse, the Wheel and Language gives a great overview…

    When the climate changed between 3500 and 3000 BCE, with the steppes becoming drier and cooler, those inventions led to a new way of life in which mobile herders moved into the steppes, developing a new kind of social organisation with patron-client and host-guest relationships.

    That new social organisation, with its related Indo-European languages, spread throughout Europe, Central Asia and South Asia because of its possibilities to include new members within its social structures.

    Notice that the greatest upheaval in human history occurred with this great leap in technology…

    This new and powerful technology allowed these Aryan people carrying the Indo-European language to dominate most of the known world because of their mobility…something simple, but extremely powerful that no other group standing in their way could withstand…

    They displaced or assimilated the indigenous groups of Europe…the Kurgan Hypothesis fills in the blanks…

    The mobility of the Kurgan culture facilitated its expansion over the entire region, and is attributed to the domestication of the horse and later the use of early chariots.

    Gimbutas believed that the expansions of the Kurgan culture were a series of essentially hostile military incursions where a new warrior culture imposed itself on the peaceful, matrilinear (hereditary through the female line), matrifocal, though egalitarian cultures of “Old Europe”, replacing it with a patriarchal warrior society, a process visible in the appearance of fortified settlements and hillforts and the graves of warrior-chieftains:

    The process of Indo-Europeanization was a cultural, not a physical, transformation. It must be understood as a military victory in terms of successfully imposing a new administrative system, language, and religion upon the indigenous groups.[25]

    Genetic studies are now confirming the archeological evidence…

    …haplogroups R1b and R1a, now the most common in Europe (R1a is also common in South Asia) would have expanded from the steppes north of the Pontic and Caspian seas, along with the Indo-European languages;

    they also detected an autosomal component present in modern Europeans which was not present in Neolithic Europeans, which would have been introduced with paternal lineages R1b and R1a, as well as Indo-European languages.

    So the lesson from history is that epochal technology advances have determined who dominates…

    Today there is no technology that can bring to bear a similar kind of overwhelming power, without reaching outside our world…

    The details about the moon base are quite simple physics and the military implications are like I said…staggering…

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Swedish Family
  74. Hillbob says:

    Of course he is. Thank god!

  75. Dmitry says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Muslim nationalities (with exception of the Chechen Republic) in Russia, are on average secularizing.

    As for birthrates.

    It is not true that regions majority Muslim, necessarily have the highest birthrates.

    Highest regional birthrates in Russia in 2019, so far

    Tuva – 2,97 children per woman (Tuvans – religion: Tengrism and Buddhism)

    Chechnya – 2,6 children per woman (Chechens – religion: Sunni Islam)

    Altai Republic – 2,35 children per woman (Altaytsy – religion: secular, shamanist religion, or Christian)

    Nenets Autonomous Okrug – 2,24 children per woman (Nentsy – shamanist religion)

    Buryatia – 2,04 children per woman (Buryaty – religion Mahayana Buddhism)

    Though it might be a bit scary to compare lowest fertility region:

    Leningrad region – 1,12 children per woman.

  76. Denis says:
    @FB

    If they can do that, both the US and Russia will be absolutely helpless, for simple technical reasons that most laymen are completely oblivious to…but which is no secret to knowledgeable specialists who have thought this through…

    The same is true for either of the other two…we may be on the cusp of an epochal upheaval…and it all has to do with the new and very real race to the moon that is now getting under way…

    Would you be able to elaborate on this? What particular advance are you referring to? Perhaps you’re talking about exploiting resources outside of earth?

  77. @Swedish Family

    It’s true, however, that Muslims and Christians get along well in Russia.

    p

    Following the end of the Crusades, Muslims and Christians got along fairly well until Isreal entered the mix in 1948. And good relationswill resum once Israel ceases to exist. Prior to the 10 year run-up to the false-flag of 9/11, most Americans could not have told you there was any such thing as a Muslim religion.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  78. Cyrano says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    No, Andrei, I don’t. My memory is not what it used to be. I couldn’t even remember in which movie I saw the original Boris Goodenough joke.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  79. Ahoy says:

    Pat says the Russian economy is smaller than that of Italy.

    Prior to reading this I thought Pat was a smart guy. I guess there is always the first time.

  80. @Dumbo

    We have the world’s largest economy. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, and not a tenth the size of ours.

    I hear this a lot, but is it true?

    Yes, I saw that, too. It is a factoid that gets bandied about a lot, uncritically, ever since the Ukraine crisis made Russia our mortal “enemy”, but the facts are easily ascertained.

    Germany and Russia’s economies on a PPP basis are roughly the same size (Russia is a tad smaller than Germany) about $4 trillion or so, on a purchasing power basis, ranking below the United States, China, India and Japan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    Russia’s nominal GDP in US dollars appeared to shrink massively after the Ukraine crisis and sanctions of 2014. In reality, most of the change was an artifact. The sanctions caused the value of the ruble to fall, in US$ terms, as demand for rubles in the foreign exchange markets fell due to the sanction. Also, measuring a country’s economy using the US$ exchange rate tends to look at the economy through the lens of it’s demand for dollars, which is largely trade and investment related measure.

    That is, of course, why economists use purchasing power parity to compare economies of countries, especially countries that are not massively dependent on US dollar denominated trade and have large internal economies that are not connected to the outside world.

    The hysteria and misinformation are such that we are required to believe, simultaneously, that Russia is both an economic pygmy on the verge of collapse, and a formidable military and geopolitical adversary that is fully our equal in influence.

    • Agree: Denis
    • Replies: @Carroll Price
  81. @FB

    The Solons in DC need to dust off “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” by Paul Kennedy. Published a little more than 30 years ago and chronicling the rise of the British and French Empires and the consequences of their military over-extension, it was an obvious warning what would befall an American Empire.

    Even our “best” and “brightest” now remember little.

  82. BuelahMan says:

    Eretz Israel is forming right in front of our eyes and all these people are arguing over which leader is the biggest jewish ass-kissing sycophant doing their murderous bidding.

  83. https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/18/opinions/hanging-israel-out-to-dry-andelman/index.html

    A mixture of propaganda and hyperbol to be sure, but things may indeed be looking up in the Middle East.

  84. @PiltdownMan

    The hysteria and misinformation are such that we are required to believe, simultaneously, that Russia is both an economic pygmy on the verge of collapse, and a formidable military and geopolitical adversary that is fully our equal in influence.

    It’s an updated replay of the “Soviet missile gap” theory that worked so well in selling Ronald Reagan’s budget-busting defense spending contracts with the MIC – from which we may never recover.

  85. Corvinus says:
    @Robert Dolan

    “Putin puts his people first, his country first, just like Hitler did.”

    Putin puts his people who are Oligarchs first.

    “Putin has no desire to rule the world, nor did Hitler.”

    Hitler desired to rule Europe, which to him was the world.

    “Globalist jews are the only crew that wants to rule over all of humanity.”

    That would be Fake News.

  86. @Swedish Family

    A fair analysis, but why would the threat of independence for the Muslim Caucasus provinces ever go away?

    Russians have nothing like the manpower and fertility they used to have back when they flooded the Baltics and Kazakhstan with Russian settlers. So there’s no reason to think that those Muslim provinces will ever become demographically, culturally and religiously more Russian.

    Perhaps, in thirty years, we will see one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons ruling a Muslim Caucasus republic from the shore of Dagestan west through Kabardino-Balkaria. It could eventually include Slavic and related nonMuslim countries in the neighborhood that have increasingly elderly populations and are depopulating, such as Georgia.

    As long as the Chechens don’t try to touch territory within Russia proper, a less populous and older Russia might not stop them from consolidating Chechen rule in a swath of the south.

    • Replies: @Swedish Family
  87. Erebus says:
    @FB

    But what good would a moonbase do?

    Ahh…you will have to wait until my blog article is up…

    Would it have anything to do with this book?

    • Replies: @FB
  88. @follyofwar

    Nancy had been dragging her feet on impeachment. It got my attention when She suddenly went in reverse based on a flimsy Ukraine story that She had not even looked into. It’s like somebody above her pay grade said to Her – This is what we’re going to do.

    I think Trump crossed a line with the powers that be when he intervened in their war in Syria.

    Then two thirds of House Republicans vote to condemn Trumps action in Syria. They didn’t have to do that to please their constituents. What will two thirds of Senate Republicans do?

    I think the people who own the congress have decided that Trump must go.

  89. FB says: • Website
    @Erebus

    No idea…never heard of this book…nor have ever actually read a science fiction book of any kind…

    • Replies: @Erebus
  90. @Erebus

    Um, good point but here’s a much simpler one: article five speaks of deciding whether to use force to secure THE NORTH ATLANTIC AREA.

    Syria and turkey aren’t part of the North Atlantic Area.

  91. @SteveK9

    Yes. I’m praying for success in that endeavor in Russia and for our peoples here in North America.

  92. @Dmitry

    That’s useful info, thank you. But it seems that we are still seeing ZERO Christian ethnically Russian oblasts with TFR at replacement level.

    Christian ethnically Russian oblasts overwhelmingly having TFR waaaaaaay below replacement — not much better than Ukrainian collapse/depopulation level.

    So, on those trends — which can change, of course — we will see millions fewer ethnic Russians and Christians throughout the non-Caucasus RF just 20 years from now, and they will be on average even older than today.

    That could be contrasted with 1 to 1.5 million more Muslim Chechens and half a million more Buddhists (Tuvans and others).

    If the Chechens can keep their birth rates up consistently and the other Muslim groups keep not reproducing near replacement levels (Dagestan), Chechens will be able to encroach into Dagestan territory to the east and Kabardino-balkaria to the west.

    Chechens should also be looking to settle some of that new Chechen population in the southern end of Russia proper, just over the border.

  93. @Dmitry

    P.S. You know a lot more about russia than I do, and I enjoy learning.

    But we can’t be optimistic based on the TFR of tiny nonMuslim entities like Nenets Okrug. It has only 50,000 people, which is less than chechnya’s Fourth-biggest City. It is interesting, but inconsequential in the demographic future of the RF.

    The Altai Republic is listed as having only 206,000 people in 2010. I don’t know what its population is now, but it can’t be that much larger now. Not very significant in the demographic future of the RF.

    Dagestan seems to be at about 2.9 million people and not growing,
    Ingushetia at 500,000 people and growing slowly if at all,
    Kabardino-Balkaria at 867,000 and seemingly leveling off.

    Chechnya is small but could become somewhat significant in the next two decades. Admittedly, that is only because the surrounding populations, Muslim but especially nonMuslim, will likely be collapsing.

    Chechnya has increased its population from 1.1 million in 2002 to about 1.5 million today. It could readily double to three million in the next 20 years. That would make it more populous than Dagestan and ingushetia combined, by then.

    Chechnya would become merely the biggest fish in a small pond, perhaps, but this is a harbinger of a broader demographic and political-power shift in the making. Not a good shift for Russians or for nonMuslim people in southern Russia especially.

    • Replies: @athEIst
  94. bluedog says:
    @nokangaroos

    Who knows what the real game is in Syria between Russia,Turkey and the U.S. as all have different desires,no one knows yet what Trumps going to do is he going to pull the rest of the troops out is he going to still occupy the oil rich region,as the man said don’t count on anything until their checks in the bank,then we will see.!!!

  95. bluedog says:
    @The Alarmist

    Hmm not likley will any NATO country join in a Turkish Invasion of a Third country someones wishful thinking.!!!

  96. @Cyrano

    I couldn’t even remember in which movie I saw the original Boris Goodenough joke.

    Yeah, I know the feeling. The name of the actor was Alexander Godunov.

    • Replies: @Cortes
  97. Jews went from Zionism — a limited homeland for Jews — to Yinonism that calls for Jewish-Supremacist-Hegemony over all the Middle East.

    And most US politicians are Yinonist cucks.

    • Replies: @Brooklyn Dave
  98. @RadicalCenter

    A fair analysis, but why would the threat of independence for the Muslim Caucasus provinces ever go away?

    The main threats are foreign islamists setting up shop there (Saudi-sponsored jihadis, etc.) and American meddling (missile bases, etc.), and these both stand a good chance of going away in the coming decades once things cool down in the Middle-East and America comes to its senses. In the late 1990s, during Chechnya’s de facto independence, there were also great problems with lawlessness, which sometimes spread to other regions (gangs of bandits attacking villages in neighboring Dagestan, for instance), but the risk of that should be far lower now with a strongman in charge, and Russia is also in far better shape to handle such risks today than back in the 90s, when the army, and indeed the whole country, was in desperately poor shape.

    Russians have nothing like the manpower and fertility they used to have back when they flooded the Baltics and Kazakhstan with Russian settlers. So there’s no reason to think that those Muslim provinces will ever become demographically, culturally and religiously more Russian.

    That’s right. And even present trends point the wrong way. Chechnya, and a few other Caucasian regions, are among few in Russia with a dwindling share of ethnic Russians. Most other regions show the exact opposite trend. Karlin wrote about this some two years ago. Here are the two most relevant maps:
    http://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/avdeev-map-russia-young-minorities.png

    In the second map, regions with the figure printed in green have a greater share of ethnic Russians under 5 years old than the share of ethnic Russians in the population at large (that is to say, in these regions, we should expect the share of ethnic Russians in the population at large to rise as time goes by), and regions with the figure printed in red are the other way. As you can see, outside the Caucasus and some regions bordering China and Mongolia, the trend is overwhelmingly positive.

    Perhaps, in thirty years, we will see one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons ruling a Muslim Caucasus republic from the shore of Dagestan west through Kabardino-Balkaria. It could eventually include Slavic and related nonMuslim countries in the neighborhood that have increasingly elderly populations and are depopulating, such as Georgia.

    As I wrote earlier, we shouldn’t mix up Chechnya and Ingushetia — which are reasonably homogeneous regions, and ethnically and historically close — with Dagestan, which is easily Russia’s most motley region. Here is Dagestans’s ethnic breakdown in the 2010 census:

    Avars — 29.4%
    Dargins — 17.0%
    Kumyks — 14.9%
    Lezgians — 13.3%
    Laks — 5.6%
    Azerbaijanis — 4.5%
    Tabasarans — 4.1%
    Russians — 3.6%
    Chechens — 3.2%
    Nogais — 1.4%
    Aghuls — 1.0%
    Rutuls — 1.0%
    Tsakhurs — 0.3%
    Others — 0.7%

    You can see what a mess this place would be if the Russian state didn’t keep tribalism and nepotism in check.

  99. @Dmitry

    P.S. We can’t say that a Muslim region in Russia necessarily has a high TFR. Not at all.

    But we CAN say that Christian regions in Russia have universally inadequate TFR, often 1.6 and lower.

    In short, it seems that the only regions in Russia that are growing from natural increase (births > deaths) have a majority who are adherents of Islam, Buddhism, or folk religions. I’m not happy about this, just saying that “the handwriting is on the wall” demographically more than we like to admit, and nonMuslim and european peoples need big changes to survive.

  100. @FB

    The details about the moon base are quite simple physics and the military implications are like I said…staggering…

    Intriguing. Looking forward to reading the post!

  101. @Carroll Price

    Muslims and Christians got along well in Russia under circumstances that largely don’t exist any more.

    Like other people, Muslims realistically shouldn’t be expected to act the same when they are FIFTY percent of the local population as opposed to ten percent, or THIRTY percent of the national population instead of ten percent.

    Moreover, Muslims today have access to more radical, hateful, aggressive versions of their religion from around the world, through the internet, as well as hundreds of mosques built in part with Saudi wahhabi money. (Perhaps russia hasn’t allowed Saudi-funded mosques, you probably know.)

    Moreover, Muslims are gradually constituting slightly more of the RF resident population, and to a lesser extent the RF citizenry, because

    (1) Muslim TFR in the RF has declined drastically alright, except for Chechnya, but hasn’t plummeted to the fatally low level of nonMuslim Russians, and

    (2) Muslims continue to settle in the RF from Central Asia, many attaining legal permanent residency and some eventually citizenship, while there is no equivalent inflow of nonMuslim and/or european people into the RF.

    The RF does have a means of preserving the Christian and european character of its territory, in addition to encouraging Russians to have more children.

    The RF should be making a concerted effort to induce white europeans to leave Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and the Benelux countries and settle in the RF. Don’t need to give them citizenship and would be wise NOT to. Just offer them permanent residency and the physical safety, peace and quiet, and order that will be lacking in the increasingly violent, intimidating, unintelligent, white-hating, Christian-hating, impoverished African/Arab/Turk/Pakistani “Europe” of the coming generations.

    With the magnitude of the white flight that we are going to see from Europe and the “UK” in the next few decades, it wouldn’t be implausible for Russia to attract more than a million white Europeans per year to settle in Russia, eventually more than fifty million. (Some will die each year after settling in Russia, of course, especially because many will wait till retirement to flee their home countries, so Russia won’t be overwhelmed by Europeans in the aggregate.)

    Russia and its people will profit from the millions of visa / temporary-residency application fees, then millions of permanent-residency applications.

    The Russian economy will benefit from a million or more additional Europeans per year buying the things you need in a new country — furniture, household appliances, a pond nowadays a new cell phone and tablet operating on the local networks — and patronizing restaurants, clothing shops, grocery stores, in their new Russian hometowns.

    Many of those fleeing may be elderly, or middle-aged and affluent enough to retire fairly young. So the RF will need to impose requirements on minimum assets, savings, and verifiable income, as well as medical insurance paid for a year in advance, to ensure that european refugees in their 50s through 70s do not unduly burden the Russian taxpayers. The Europeans could also take an affordable, short flight back to their home countries, if desired, for medical and dental care, which would lessen the burden on the Russian government medical insurance system.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    , @Carroll Price
  102. Well, maybe Putin will do a better job than the US has done with the Middle East. We have funded ISIS, we have allowed a holocaust of the Yemenis by the Saudis to go on and on, and this has been going on for decades. Actually, the message to Putin is phenomenal. He is saying, “Hey Vlad, it ain’t me who has a problem with youse guys – it’s the apparatchiks in my government. Here, have fun with this part of the world.” Vladdy knows how to handle Erdogan. So does Trump, but the Powers That Be will do everything they can to make any action him go badly. Historically the Kurds have been screwed with for ages, but he fact that they are politically Marxist makes me have less empathy for them than I normally would. As long as the Turks do not try annihilating the Kurds I can easily live with Trump’s gift to Putin.

  103. @Priss Factor

    And most Americans haven’t a clue what Yinonism is –I do. If they did, it might cause them to question other attitudes and beliefs they have about world affairs and politics.

  104. Dmitry says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Chechen Republic will probably be a future political problem, because now Kadyrov is Islamizing the population.

    However, note the fertility rate there is not so high or scary and is falling. This 2,6 children per woman, will probably fall to replacement or below in a generation.

    It’s not like Bedouin Arab population in Israel who have fertility rate of 8 children per woman.

    So there is a problem of the government and appeasement of republic, but it is more like an unpleasant insect bite, than a tumour or cancer.

    ethnically Russian oblasts overwhelmingly having TFR waaaaaaay below replacement

    There is already a problem of depopulation in a lot of Russia (which contributes to partly why a lot of the country is decaying or rotting).

    However, the cause of this is primarily internal migration. Population in economically successful regions is rapidly expanding, from internal migration of people from other cities and regions.

    So in economically successful cities, the problem is the opposite – at the moment the population is expanding too fast in cities like Moscow and Saint-Petersburg.*

    Future of Russia is – richer, more urbanized to certain cities, older, lower crime, higher standard of living.

    On the other hand – many rural, provincial areas, as well as economically unsuccessful cities, will continue to decay (basically continuation of trends of the last 30 years in this).

    half a million more Buddhists (Tuvans and others).

    I don’t see a problem of that.

    Growing population – might attract more tourists to those regions.

    white flight that we are going to see from Europe and the “UK” in the next few decades

    I work in Western Europe. It’s not bad here at all – in the bourgeois location.

    Really, I don’t understand how people are scared of bourgeois immigrants like Indian and Chinese students; they are not going to beat you and steal your shoes (unlike some gopniks, in e.g. Chelyabinsk)

    The problem in Western Europe is some kind of the unfiltered immigrants which are in the non-bourgeois cities and districts, where they allow all kinds of random people of the third-world countries.

    nduce white europeans to leave Germany, France, Italy, Sweden,

    This is dependent on jobs and standard of living in source and destination country.

    If standard of living in a part of Russia is higher than e.g. UK, then it would attract residents and investors from the UK.

    As for desirability of this – it will depend on the quality of the immigrants.

    There are some whole nationalities like Afrikaners (from South Africa) who have a history of high average achievement and success. So sure, it might desirable to attract them (for any country).

    *Example of massive expansion of housing outside Saint-Petersburg (population there is just growing too fast)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NclnhHa6Bt4

  105. pyrrhus says:
    @Alfa158

    Yes, Putin can have the place….no problem at all.

  106. Anon[324] • Disclaimer says:
    @WorkingClass

    Is anything preventing you from hiring out as a mercenary or agent provocateur to protect the interests of either the Shits, Suns and Jews in the Mideast? If not, go for it and stop whining that we do less of it as a nation.

    • Replies: @anon
  107. Anon[324] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    These are not necessarily mutually exclusive desiderata, except when the latter becomes an entitlement rather than a temporary lifeline. But I guess you took that into consideration.

  108. @RadicalCenter

    Without exceptions, all tribal groups, pose the same problem for orderly societies. In that once their percentage, in relation to the majority population approaches 10 percent, they become virtually unbearable. Due to the over-bearing, dominating nature of Jews, the percentage required in this regard is way less than half that for all other minorities. I suspect the same would be true (if not far worse) for Muslims.

  109. Cortes says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Also appeared as an Amish in “Witness” iirc.

  110. Erebus says:
    @FB

    Read it 50 yrs ago, and all I really recall is that a penal moon colony wins its war of independence by flinging moon rocks at the earth to devastating effect.

  111. Don’t f**k with Putin and don’t f**k with the ChiComs. Whatever their failings they don’t have an empathy overload over their reason and will not allow idiots and bad actors to compromise their countries. The West could surely learn from them.

  112. There are two nations in particular that have turned a blind eye towards the atrocities committed at the hands of their demonic leaders. Their days are definitely numbered.

    While many do indeed tolerate and even applaud crimes against humanity, in order to maintain a materialistic lifestyle at the expense of others, true Christians and many others, find this behavior reprehensible.

    Matt 13:15 For this people’s heart is waxed gross, and their ears are dull of hearing, and their eyes they have closed; lest at any time they should see with their eyes, and hear with their ears, and should understand with their heart, and should be converted, and I should heal them.

    The demented behavior that condones murder, theft and the destruction of others represents a phenomenon known as the nation-state exceptionalism syndrome. The fourth World Kingdom will crush these people groups.

    A world changing prophetic reset is underway, and with it comes a new Confederation of nations that will completely destroy the current regime and her masters of deception and death.

    Russia, China and Iran may well be the start of the ten-nation confederacy will prove to be the final blow to the old New World Order. They will utterly destroy the current empire of destruction and deceit that has destroyed much of the world.

    Sadly, many who base their understanding and faith on the doctrines of men will have their false sense of security stripped away.

    Faith and hope that is based on self-righteousness and deceit is a deadly belief system that leads unto damnation.

    Matt 13:41 The Son of man shall send forth his angels, and they shall gather out of his kingdom all things that offend, and them which do iniquity.

  113. @Christian truth Project

    The Final Ten Nation Confederacy is already coming together, this will be devastating for the false nation of Israel!!! See Rev 17:16-17

    The Identity of the Great Whore is Revealed by pointing out the incredible destruction they bring upon themselves and their converts. Not only do they fail to enter into the kingdom, but they also prevent many others from entering in as well (Mark 7:13; Luke 11:52; Math 5:20; Math 15:2; John 3:5).

    The Judgment of the Great Whore is at the hands of the ten kings who are a part of the last kingdom on earth before the return of Yahshua the Messiah. The judgment of Mystery Babylon the Mother of Harlots, (or whores) is at the end of the Great Tribulation period, however, the Judgment of the Great Whore occurs at the beginning.

    Rev 17:16-17 And the ten horns which thou sawest upon the beast, these shall hate the (great) whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire.  For God hath put in their hearts to fulfil his will, and to agree, and give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.

    The Judgment of the Great Whore comes as a result of the fourth beast system that will expose and crush her. As the creator of all false religions, it will be easy for Satan to expose the great carnage that they produced, and through lying signs and wonders convince the world that he is their long-awaited messiah.

    The identity of the Great Whore is revealed through observing how she interacts with those around her. Her leaders are like unto wolves that devour their prey. These people use oppression on the poor and those in need, and they are without compassion. They take what is not rightfully theirs, and with great cruelty trample down those around them unnecessarily. They are also quick to shed blood and love dishonest gain which is covetousness.

    https://destinedtoberevealed.com/the-identity-of-the-great-whore-revealed/

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  114. @WorkingClass

    Instinctively, I felt relieved when Trump was elected. Why? Because I believed that this was the opportunity to reform a very broken country, broken and depleted by a 5th Column of Jews and Bolsheviks married to a DeepState. The last 3 years has shown anyone paying attention just how corrupt the MIC, Propaganda-Media arm, War Party politicians and Israel are.
    I didn’t like Trump on a personal level. I’ve since learned that he is actually a very clever guy (140 iq) with a public persona that he has polished because it works for business and self-promotion. I believe on a personal level that he is a patriot and that he does care. I don’t think he is perfect by any means but every President since JFK has been a DS hack. Every. Single. One. Especially Hussein. The only exception was Bush Sr. He was actually a DS mafioso.
    Trump could run as an Independent and win. I believe his real approval numbers are probably low 60’s, possibly higher.

  115. @Anonymous

    The ‘leadership’ in the West is complicit. These were the oldest Christian communities in the world that the West should have supported. It was in their interests to support them and they did not. Why? Jewish hatred is definitely part of the answer.

  116. King of Middle East was Aircraft. Kingdom is now being taken over by antiaircraft missiles.

  117. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    Try to understand role-playing and sarcasm.

    • Replies: @Anon
  118. Anon[105] • Disclaimer says:

    Sure will massa now that my son’s skin is out of the charade,

  119. Anon[105] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    Try to understand role-playing and sarcasm.

    Will do massa now that my son is home.

  120. @Christian truth Project

    I can tell you the identity of the great Whore if you email me. I dated her for four years.

    • LOL: Ron Unz
    • Replies: @NoseytheDuke
  121. @RadicalCenter

    I knew a guy who also dated her but then she moved to Annapolis – to be closer to the Navy.

  122. @Alfa158

    Anyone who says Russia’s economy is the size of Italy needs to be sent to a hard labor camp
    Russia has the 6th biggest economy in the world.
    5th biggest oil consumer
    5th most FX reserves
    6th most billionaire’s
    5th most gold
    6th biggest GDP/ppp

  123. “The U.S. has seven NATO allies on the Med — Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, Albania, Greece and Turkey…”

    No this wrong. The U.S. has EIGHT NATO allies on the Med — Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, MONTENEGRO, Albania, Greece and Turkey…

    • Replies: @Avery
  124. Avery says:
    @Michael888

    What so-called ‘allies’: NATO members are tools for their Hegemon, the US.
    They are no more than sycophants, if they are large enough to be so considered.
    Others, like Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, etc are nothing more than targets.
    US will goad them someday to do something stupid against Russia ( to gauge Russia’s reaction), and Russia will take them out one -by-one: US will watch from a comfortable, safe distance….and shrug.

    And the stupid little fry NATO ‘allies’ are required to contribute to NATO funds and troops (canon fodder), and are required to purchase overpriced NATO-compatible military equipment.

    The only allies US will go to bat for are the 4 other states in the Anglosphere.

  125. The cost effective Russian MIC:

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/10/21/russian-nuclear-sub-misfires-putin-supervised-drills-reports-a67814

    Support The Moscow Times!

    CONTRIBUTE TODAY
    NEWSOPINIONBUSINESSMEANWHILEARTS AND LIFEPODCASTSVIDEOSIN-DEPTHMOSCOWLIVING

    Russian Nuclear Sub Misfires During Putin-Supervised Drills – Reports
    Oct. 21, 2019

    Defense Ministry / Youtube

    A Russian nuclear-powered submarine misfired one of its missiles at large-scale military exercises presided by President Vladimir Putin on the country’s northern coast last week, the Vedomosti newspaper reported Monday.

    The Ryazan Delta III class nuclear-powered vessel was one of five submarines, more than 100 aircraft, 200 missile launchers and 12,000 troops involved in the Grom-2019 military exercises last week. Putin supervised Grom-2019 on the last of three days of drills on Thursday.

    The Ryazan submarine fired only one one ballistic missile into a test range in the Barents Sea instead of the two that had been announced by the Russian military before the launch, Vedomosti reported.

    “The second R-29R [missile] did not exit the silo launcher, and the submarine returned to its home base with an unexploded missile,” it wrote, citing two unnamed sources close to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

    The R-29R is a Soviet-era missile that was first deployed in 1977.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
  126. augusto says: • Website

    – Dear mr Buchaneer:

    -the man who runs the economy the Tenth of yours… is way wiser, smarter and cautious – and so far victorious- than the whole bunch of the pentagon, whitehouse and foggybutt bastards.

    -The best missiles in the world
    -the best military planes in the world
    -the greatest CREDIBILITY status among everyone in the middele east and outside…
    -YOu have forced him into syria.
    Welll with a small force of 70 planes and copters he won the syrian war against the US mercenaries and islamic partners…
    -if he ever could run for the US presidency, his voting figures would surprise and scare you to death.
    -Now, mr buchan, it is time for you to sit by the riverside and weep.

    • Replies: @Hillbob
  127. nymom says:
    @Swedish Family

    I think a moon base can probably begin to do mining in space of asteroids that contain rare earths (used in cellphones and computers) and maybe even gold and silver. Which might lower the value of those two particular metals so I don’t know if that would be worth it to them in the long run…but the rare earths appear to be available only in very unstable countries such as Afghanistan and South Africa for instance.

    If China can bypass mining for these minerals on earth that could go a long way to helping their economy.

    Additionally the moon could also be used as a base for spying on earth and/or setting up systems that could launch missiles from there as needed in the event of earth based attacks.

    Maybe…

    • Replies: @anon
    , @nymom
  128. @David Davenport

    it wrote, citing two unnamed sources close to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

    The whole thing has been debunked already. It was spread by RBC–same outlet which reported scores of Russian fighters damaged in January 2018 at Khmeimim Airbase. Even same office plankton Mr. Safronov is an author of this BS. Same people, same money, same shit. But the main issue here is the fact that Moscow Times same as any media outlet populated with ignorant hacks who proudly call themselves “journalists” have no idea what is pre-launch protocol for any SLBM and how it is is done, otherwise they wouldn’t write such BS as “misfired” and this pearl:

    and the submarine returned to its home base with an unexploded missile

    Missiles of this type actually do not “explode” unless it is a catastrophic situation (such as was the case with Igor Britanov’s K-219 of ancient already then pr. 667 A, aka Ivan Washington, in 1986), what explodes are the MIRVs carried by those missiles, but not on military exercises which use inert dummies for training purposes.

    We are indeed, into the era of ignorant imbeciles with degrees in English, PR, “journalism”, communications and other ignorance “degrees” generally known as media and especially so Western media who are good only at creating fake news. But just in case you wonder, Ryazan is the last of the dinosaurs of Delta-III class (pr. 667 BDR) and is in her 38th year of service–not too bad for an old lady. In general, long story to explain to people who have no clue. While at it, FYI, there was another rumor circulated at the time of Grom-2019, also from Western NGO-financed media, that allegedly 2 3M14 missiles also failed to launch. Russian MoD laughed. All of it is Kubler-Ross model in action at the Western media. Some are still in Anger stage but are slowly moving to Bargaining one. Because most (not all) “journalists” are dumb as stumps some of them are still in Anger stage. Hence making shit up and misrepresenting it to boot.

  129. Hillbob says:
    @augusto

    Say it again and again…..

  130. anon[113] • Disclaimer says:
    @nymom

    Rare earth minerals occur everywhere. They’re only rare in the sense that they usually occur in small concentrations, hence require procssing. The US used to mine its own rare earths, until they decided it was cheaper to buy them from China. (How can China “bypass mining for these minerals” on earth? They’ve been doing it for years.)

    The mining and prcessing creates vast amounts of by-product/waste that must be dealt with. When the Chinese (who are becoming much more environmentally conscious after suffering results of careless pollution) decided not to export so freely, the US had to find other sources. (Of course, it’s too expensive to rehabilitate US plants.) Like so many things involving China, the US dug its own grave.

    This isn’t really a political (left or right) issue, so I wonder what the sources are for your narrative. The purpose of moon base that’s usually cited is as a trial run for living not on earth. Lessons learned will enable base on Mars.

    • Replies: @nymom
  131. nymom says:
    @nymom

    Science article that stated mining from asteroids and intelligence gathering would be the only two applications of space travel for the foreseeable future. It was on the internet so I think you can google it. Anyway, I seriously doubt if it will ever be cost effective to build colonies in space unless we happen upon a planet that we can just live on without all the bells and whistles that Elon Musk imagines…

    It is not impossible to do the colonies on Mars thing; but, I don’t think it will ever be cost effective enough for large scale colonization…maybe one research station will come out of the whole thing. We have now discovered hundred of planets in other solar systems and not one is vaguely livable. Of course that can change tomorrow; but, if it doesn’t we will remain right here on earth…

  132. nymom says:
    @anon

    Also Tungsten I think only occurs in South Africa or its the largest deposit of it on Earth that we know of for now…I am not sure if the Chinese want to count on being able to access that deposit seeing the direction that South Africa is heading into…

    Maybe.

  133. athEIst says:
    @RadicalCenter

    Stalin should have killed them all,not just most, when he had the chance.

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