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Longevity survival days

In describing the Kaplan-Meier survival graphs in “Vita Brevis, Dignitatis Inutilis” I correctly described the findings in the Iveson et al. paper, but then went a step too far in equating a decrease in mortality risk with an identical increase in lifespan. I said:

The good news is that a standard-deviation increase in IQ score is associated with a 24% decrease in mortality risk. So, at IQ 115 lifespan is 24% longer than average.

The second sentence should have read “So, at IQ 115 your chance of getting to a particular age, say 79, is 24% better than average”.

Calculating the actual lifespan increase is somewhat more complicated. That is mostly because the living are still living, and their deaths are not yet precisely foretold. Nonetheless, the curves give the best estimates of survival, and show that chances of survival of brighter persons are better than average.

Regarding the findings in their paper, the authors tell me:

We usually find that people are satisfied with knowing the Hazard Ratio per Standard Deviation of intelligence. However, you could look at the horizonal (x axis; time) distance for a given probability of being alive for -1 Standard Deviation, mean, and +1 Standard Deviation of intelligence.

To make your own estimates, look at Fig 1 and decide on a probability level, or an age to be achieved. Then read the result off the other axis.

For example, if you accept that a .8 probability is a fair bet for life planning purposes, say as regards pensions, retirement expenditure generally, or starting new ventures then, very roughly and judged by eye:

IQ 115 live 26,500 days which is 72.6 years
IQ 100 live 24,500 days which is 67.1 years
IQ 85 live 23,000 days which is 63 years

So, the “cost” of being of average intelligence rather than 1 standard deviation above average is 5.5 years.

As a rough rule of thumb, those of IQ 115 live 10 years longer than those of IQ 85. Since the latter group will have much lower wages than those of IQ 115 it is natural to assume that social class of origin determines the difference in lifespan, and that wealth is what causes “inequalities” in health outcomes. In fact social class only slightly reduces the effect of intelligence on lifespan.

In summary, it appears that those born with “system integrity” have better brains and better bodies, an advantage which is theirs to cherish or to lose.

 
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  1. res says:

    The second sentence should have read “So, at IQ 115 your chance of getting to a particular age, say 79, is 24% better than average”.

    Just to be clear (and check my own understanding), I think the 24% improvement refers to a decreased chance of dying from one year to the next (mortality rate). Even at age 79 the annual mortality rate is still only about 5%: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
    This means (if I understand correctly) that the chance of dying between age 79 and 80 goes from 5% to 4% with one additional SD of intelligence (or from 5% to 6% on the other side). In turn this means your chance of surviving from age 79 to 80 changes from 95% to 96%–about a 1% change.

    This is not the same as what you said though. Age 79 is 28835 days and looking at the graphic we see a survival rate to that point of maybe 0.7 at the mean and 0.8 at +1SD (I think I am overestimating the improvement, intentionally) which gives a ~14% increase in the chance of survival to age 79. The exact change will be heavily dependent on the particular age chosen. For example, at age 50 (18250 days) there is almost no change in survival to that point.

    The small changes in survival rate do add up over time in a meaningful way though, as the rest of your analysis demonstrates.

    Regarding the authors’ comment on which is better to know, I think the hazard ratio for the mortality rate gives a meaningful estimate for the effect (and is the preferred comparison of effect metric for researchers), but I think human judgement is not good at converting that into a solid estimate of the real life consequences (I know my intuition completely fails there). I think the survival curves give a much better sense of the real world effect. But I think the rule of thumb you give is even better. Nice summary.

    P.S. It is worth noting that your 5.5 year estimate for 80% survival increase is about 2x the 2-3 year increased lifespan estimate I came up with in an earlier comment (see graphic below). Your calculation is more rigorous, but I am not sure how much of the difference is just because we looked at different things. I am also not sure which is the more useful way of thinking about this (80% survival or average lifespan). I tend to think your metric is, especially since I suspect it better captures “high quality of life lifespan”. Put another way, I think there is a decent chance the average lifespan metric underestimates the increase in “high quality of life lifespan” improvement conferred by higher IQ. I for one care much more about the high quality of life lifespan.

    P.P.S. I would be extremely interested in the survival curves at 2 or 3 SD if the authors are able to generate them. Along with how well the authors think linearity holds out that far. Assuming linearity holds, this graphic (from link in my earlier comment) gives an estimate of how the average lifespan effect changes with increasing IQ (1 IQ SD = 24% mortality decrease), but as mentioned above I think the survival curve gives more information.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    The answer is..... that the best way of showing differential survival rates is using the Kaplan-Meier methodology and displaying the results as hazard ratios.
    As you say, those are hard to understand, hence my suggested very low tech version of converting the converting the scores to years of life, which everyone can understand, and with which the authors agree, after I checked with them.
    As far as I know the effect is linear as regards intelligence. That is, the benefits hold true throughout the intelligence range. There is a different sort of restriction, however. In old age, from memory about after 79 or thereabouts, then the causes of death tend to be a bit more random.
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  2. dearieme says:

    The pension scheme for British academics – the University Superannuation Scheme – looks to be in desperate financial straits. I wonder whether it calculates its liabilities implicitly assuming that academics now are, on average, as intelligent as academics were, say, thirty or forty years ago. The expansion of the universities probably means that they aren’t, just as the students on average aren’t.

    So the liabilities may prove less onerous than feared as feather-brained lecturers in grievance studies will perish early. I see a consulting opportunity here for you, doc. They should hire you to have a confab with their actuaries. Naturally if you can persuade them of a sound basis for reducing their estimates of the liabilities, you will be the toast of the academic community – no need for larger member contributions then. Doc Thompson saves the day! Hurray! And the managers of USS will be able to give themselves a hearty slap on the back in the form of performance bonuses. Trebles all round.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    I think that new members, if they don't smoke or overeat, will probably live long enough to test USS investment policy. USS were late to get into equities, and late to call for greater contributions. I am hoping they will continue for the years I have left.
    It is kind of you to think I could help them.
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  3. Some of the increased lifespan will be down to secondary effects. I may eat well, be the right weight etc, know that I should get more exercise and be less stressed, but if I’m working three insecure low-wage jobs to pay the rent I’m not going to be taking long weekends off to walk the Pennine Way, unlike the guy with paid off mortgage and nice pension.

    Read More
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  4. @res

    The second sentence should have read “So, at IQ 115 your chance of getting to a particular age, say 79, is 24% better than average”.
     
    Just to be clear (and check my own understanding), I think the 24% improvement refers to a decreased chance of dying from one year to the next (mortality rate). Even at age 79 the annual mortality rate is still only about 5%: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
    This means (if I understand correctly) that the chance of dying between age 79 and 80 goes from 5% to 4% with one additional SD of intelligence (or from 5% to 6% on the other side). In turn this means your chance of surviving from age 79 to 80 changes from 95% to 96%--about a 1% change.

    This is not the same as what you said though. Age 79 is 28835 days and looking at the graphic we see a survival rate to that point of maybe 0.7 at the mean and 0.8 at +1SD (I think I am overestimating the improvement, intentionally) which gives a ~14% increase in the chance of survival to age 79. The exact change will be heavily dependent on the particular age chosen. For example, at age 50 (18250 days) there is almost no change in survival to that point.

    The small changes in survival rate do add up over time in a meaningful way though, as the rest of your analysis demonstrates.

    Regarding the authors' comment on which is better to know, I think the hazard ratio for the mortality rate gives a meaningful estimate for the effect (and is the preferred comparison of effect metric for researchers), but I think human judgement is not good at converting that into a solid estimate of the real life consequences (I know my intuition completely fails there). I think the survival curves give a much better sense of the real world effect. But I think the rule of thumb you give is even better. Nice summary.

    P.S. It is worth noting that your 5.5 year estimate for 80% survival increase is about 2x the 2-3 year increased lifespan estimate I came up with in an earlier comment (see graphic below). Your calculation is more rigorous, but I am not sure how much of the difference is just because we looked at different things. I am also not sure which is the more useful way of thinking about this (80% survival or average lifespan). I tend to think your metric is, especially since I suspect it better captures "high quality of life lifespan". Put another way, I think there is a decent chance the average lifespan metric underestimates the increase in "high quality of life lifespan" improvement conferred by higher IQ. I for one care much more about the high quality of life lifespan.

    P.P.S. I would be extremely interested in the survival curves at 2 or 3 SD if the authors are able to generate them. Along with how well the authors think linearity holds out that far. Assuming linearity holds, this graphic (from link in my earlier comment) gives an estimate of how the average lifespan effect changes with increasing IQ (1 IQ SD = 24% mortality decrease), but as mentioned above I think the survival curve gives more information.
    https://joshmitteldorf.scienceblog.com/files/2012/11/Mortality_and_LifeExpectancy1-300x221.png

    The answer is….. that the best way of showing differential survival rates is using the Kaplan-Meier methodology and displaying the results as hazard ratios.
    As you say, those are hard to understand, hence my suggested very low tech version of converting the converting the scores to years of life, which everyone can understand, and with which the authors agree, after I checked with them.
    As far as I know the effect is linear as regards intelligence. That is, the benefits hold true throughout the intelligence range. There is a different sort of restriction, however. In old age, from memory about after 79 or thereabouts, then the causes of death tend to be a bit more random.

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  5. Somewhat off topic, do you like ecclesiastical ruins – I refer to the picture on your twitter feed?

    I love thy tower, Grey Ruin,
    I joy thy form to see,
    Though reft of all,
    Cell, cloister, and hall,
    Nothing is left save a tottering wall,
    That, awfully grand and darkly dull,
    Threaten’d to fall and demolish my skull,
    As, ages ago, I wander’d along
    Careless thy grass-grown courts among,
    In sky-blue jacket and trowsers laced,
    The latter uncommonly short in the waist.

    http://www.exclassics.com/ingold/ing13.htm

    Read More
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  6. @dearieme
    The pension scheme for British academics - the University Superannuation Scheme - looks to be in desperate financial straits. I wonder whether it calculates its liabilities implicitly assuming that academics now are, on average, as intelligent as academics were, say, thirty or forty years ago. The expansion of the universities probably means that they aren't, just as the students on average aren't.

    So the liabilities may prove less onerous than feared as feather-brained lecturers in grievance studies will perish early. I see a consulting opportunity here for you, doc. They should hire you to have a confab with their actuaries. Naturally if you can persuade them of a sound basis for reducing their estimates of the liabilities, you will be the toast of the academic community - no need for larger member contributions then. Doc Thompson saves the day! Hurray! And the managers of USS will be able to give themselves a hearty slap on the back in the form of performance bonuses. Trebles all round.

    I think that new members, if they don’t smoke or overeat, will probably live long enough to test USS investment policy. USS were late to get into equities, and late to call for greater contributions. I am hoping they will continue for the years I have left.
    It is kind of you to think I could help them.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dearieme
    I was being half-serious, doc. Long ago I read that the USS actuaries had a rule of thumb that they could expect retired academics to live x years longer than the national average. Now, I propose, it might be x-1, or x-2, or what have you. Not smoking or over eating is available to all; being clever but less clever than an earlier generation of academics is perhaps an issue so specific that it's worth thinking about.

    Then there are all the administrators and so on who join USS nowadays; there are armies of the blighters, doc. Maybe their future mortality figures will constitute a sort of retrospective IQ test.

    The other big deal of changing patterns in the membership of the scheme is perhaps the sex ratio, but actuaries are presumably already expert on that. In my experience actuaries are clever blokes, but even they might not think of everything.
    , @RaceRealist88
    Fat people can live long if they exercise and eat right. See Sandra Aamodt's work. Increased risk of death occurs after 35 BMI.
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  7. yyrvjh says:

    Surprised to see that around 6000 to 9000 days, both +1 and -1 SD appear to have slightly greater survival probability than the mean. Would have thought that lower-IQ people are much more prone to engage in risky, self-harming behavior at that age.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    Risk taking deaths are very few, though more likely in low ability groups.
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  8. Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Utter garbage.
    , @James Thompson
    Check against David Becker figures.
    , @Alden
    What's education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests? The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?
    , @FKA Max

    Sub-Saharan African countries have been systematically under-estimated and East-Asian ones have been systematically over-estimated by Lynn
     
    Thank you very much for this thought-provoking research!

    I believe you are very much correct in your conclusion.

    The following is just anecdotal evidence, but, I believe, lends credence to your findings:

    There is a very smart contingent who get headlines, but in my experience the claim that Jews or Asians (spent years in Asia as well) are smarter than US Whites is hidden far-left propaganda.

    IQ-wise, Western and especially Britannic (North UK, North Spain, North France/Dutch) US Whites rule.
    [...]
    As an educational psychologist I’ve talked my way into seeing the original data on many of these silly and fraudulent studies. They typically misdefine or mismatch populations or methods to get the results they want. Many are as goofy as the FISA tests, comparing e.g. 15 year old Whites to Ashkenazi adults. One used Catell IQ for the Ashkenazi and Binet for the Euros. Some simply define Ashkenazi as any one of them who is professional and ignore those of low education or mental ability.

    There may be some effect, but it’s overblown and the studies if you see the original data don’t support the thesis. Don’t underestimate the corruption of science data by the far-left (and far-right).
     

    - http://www.unz.com/runz/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/#comment-1959613

    The Bloomberg Innovation Index might also be of interest to you, as an additional data point to support your thesis:


    There’s something about those Nordic countries.
    [...]
    – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/sweden-gains-south-korea-reigns-as-world-s-most-innovative-economies

    The following ranking of the Bloomberg Innovation Index is from 2015, and countries rise or fall within the ranking from year to year, but the dominance of the historically majority Protestant nations with Northern European-derived populations in the Top 20 is very consistent:

    It is actually eleven (11) historically majority Protestant/Northern European nations in the Top 20; 55% of the list.

    Germany(3rd), Finland(4th), USA(6th), Sweden(7th), UK(10th), Denmark(11th), Canada(12th), Australia(13th), Norway(15th), New Zealand(18th), Netherlands(20th).

    I did not include Switzerland(16th) — even though Switzerland, historically, has been almost 50% Protestant, in particular the innovative cities were predominantly Protestant — because it is not really Northern European

    - http://www.unz.com/isteve/everything-about-sat-math-racial-gaps-has-changed-since-1972/#comment-1762852

     

    - http://www.unz.com/article/two-cheers-for-trump-advisor-mike-anton-he-has-the-right-enemies/#comment-1772339

    In a paper written in 2009 for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, entitled Was Weber Wrong?, Becker and Woessmann argue that Protestants were more successful because they had the advantage of a better and longer education. Further research has led them to conclude that the educational advantage began soon after Martin Luther broke away from the established Church in the 16th century and has continued to play its part in creating economic success throughout Europe.
    [...]
    Phillipe Rushton thought, that East Asians historically have been ahead of Europeans and the recent European accomplishments are just “blips” in the larger context of human accomplishment throughout history, i.e., a rare exception[] to the rule, which can be explained by events like the “Black Death,” etc.
    [...]
    This could be the reason for the decline in human accomplishment; a lower number, per capita, of blue-eyed persons living on planet Earth
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/scrabbling-for-excellence/#comment-1911398
    , @lao gu
    thanks you for devoting your time,energy and effort to contribute nothing but garbage
    , @James Thompson
    Sorry that I have been so slow to respond here. I certainly saw your questions, and other matters intervened, as they so often do. This is brief note drawing attention to some comments I wrote on the complex relationship between extra years of schooling and ability. I am unsure about the claimed effects, but there is certainly supportive evidence. On the Norway school natural experiment, I would want to see a longer run of data, and do not want to rely on the "difference in difference" measure.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/school/
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  9. dearieme says:
    @James Thompson
    I think that new members, if they don't smoke or overeat, will probably live long enough to test USS investment policy. USS were late to get into equities, and late to call for greater contributions. I am hoping they will continue for the years I have left.
    It is kind of you to think I could help them.

    I was being half-serious, doc. Long ago I read that the USS actuaries had a rule of thumb that they could expect retired academics to live x years longer than the national average. Now, I propose, it might be x-1, or x-2, or what have you. Not smoking or over eating is available to all; being clever but less clever than an earlier generation of academics is perhaps an issue so specific that it’s worth thinking about.

    Then there are all the administrators and so on who join USS nowadays; there are armies of the blighters, doc. Maybe their future mortality figures will constitute a sort of retrospective IQ test.

    The other big deal of changing patterns in the membership of the scheme is perhaps the sex ratio, but actuaries are presumably already expert on that. In my experience actuaries are clever blokes, but even they might not think of everything.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    I had posted a longer reply to you first time round, but it disappeared so I tried the condensed version. You are right that longevity figures based on the former +2sd academics will have been relaxed a bit, so they will probably die a bit earlier. This may save USS from embarrassment. I rate my own modest investment planning higher that USS, though it is barely the market average for equities, but USS was well below that because of bad decisions based on supposed caution.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. @yyrvjh
    Surprised to see that around 6000 to 9000 days, both +1 and -1 SD appear to have slightly greater survival probability than the mean. Would have thought that lower-IQ people are much more prone to engage in risky, self-harming behavior at that age.

    Risk taking deaths are very few, though more likely in low ability groups.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  11. @James Thompson
    I think that new members, if they don't smoke or overeat, will probably live long enough to test USS investment policy. USS were late to get into equities, and late to call for greater contributions. I am hoping they will continue for the years I have left.
    It is kind of you to think I could help them.

    Fat people can live long if they exercise and eat right. See Sandra Aamodt’s work. Increased risk of death occurs after 35 BMI.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    If.
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  12. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    Utter garbage.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Elaborate!
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  13. dux.ie says:

    It might be too general to directly relate IQ with lifespan. The question is IQ directly or indirectly affecting lifespan? From a scan of the list of jobs with the appropriate IQ, it seems that those for median sub 100 IQ tended to be in more risky jobs which might have longer term effects even after retirement, e.g. agricultural workers with involvment of pesticides.

    http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx

    and the risk/fatalities rates

    https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/statistics-and-research/statistics/fatalities/fatality-statistics

    Very high IQ scientists in the nuclear industry might have shorter lifespan (like those in Iran thanks to MOSSAD) than those working in the retail trades. Airline pilots have more exposure to cosmic rays, etc. A better model should be having sub-models holding the occupation type constant, like the US MIL models.

    “Intelligence and Accidents: A Multilevel Model – Defense Technical …”

    http://www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA456227

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    Appears to be directly. Simple reaction time takes out a proportion of the variance, which suggest that there is a general factor of system integrity. In summary, the longer lifespans are not primarily due to more intelligent health behaviours.
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  14. @RaceRealist88
    Fat people can live long if they exercise and eat right. See Sandra Aamodt's work. Increased risk of death occurs after 35 BMI.

    If.

    Read More
    • Replies: @RaceRealist88
    If a thin person eats garbage he'll shorten his lifespan.

    Even then, 27 BMI has the lowest chance for mortality.

    http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2520627

    So...
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  15. @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    Check against David Becker figures.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Becker link (see Figure 1): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303283485_Population_Genetics_in_Intelligence_Research_How_much_can_it_help_to_retrace_the_evolution_of_intelligence

    The one that jumps out at me in Afrosapiens' data is China. IQs in the 80s (84 for school age children!)?

    If I understand correctly, this is Afrosapiens' methodology:

    Adult IQs were estimated from mean years of schooling completed by adults aged 25 and older whereas School-population IQs were estimated based on the expected years of schooling that a student is supposed to complete if the enrollment ratios from primary through tertiary education remain constant.

     

    Becker's methodology sounds much better to me: "Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results "
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  16. @dearieme
    I was being half-serious, doc. Long ago I read that the USS actuaries had a rule of thumb that they could expect retired academics to live x years longer than the national average. Now, I propose, it might be x-1, or x-2, or what have you. Not smoking or over eating is available to all; being clever but less clever than an earlier generation of academics is perhaps an issue so specific that it's worth thinking about.

    Then there are all the administrators and so on who join USS nowadays; there are armies of the blighters, doc. Maybe their future mortality figures will constitute a sort of retrospective IQ test.

    The other big deal of changing patterns in the membership of the scheme is perhaps the sex ratio, but actuaries are presumably already expert on that. In my experience actuaries are clever blokes, but even they might not think of everything.

    I had posted a longer reply to you first time round, but it disappeared so I tried the condensed version. You are right that longevity figures based on the former +2sd academics will have been relaxed a bit, so they will probably die a bit earlier. This may save USS from embarrassment. I rate my own modest investment planning higher that USS, though it is barely the market average for equities, but USS was well below that because of bad decisions based on supposed caution.

    Read More
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  17. @James Thompson
    If.

    If a thin person eats garbage he’ll shorten his lifespan.

    Even then, 27 BMI has the lowest chance for mortality.

    http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2520627

    So…

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Thanks for the link, but you left out what I (and the researchers, it was the sole point in the conclusion) thought was the most interesting part.

    The BMI associated with the lowest all-cause mortality increased by 3.3 from the 1976-1978 cohort compared with the 2003-2013 cohort.
     
    The hypothesis that occurs to me is simply that "normal" tends to be healthy and increased weight given the changed environment over that time is "normal." What do you think? Arguing against my hypothesis is that the baseline median BMI changed by less than 1 between the oldest and youngest cohort (I find that surprising given overall obesity trends over time). The researchers offer another hypothesis (which I find plausible):

    A potential explanation for the secular trend may be that while improved treatment for cardiovascular risk factors or complicating diseases has reduced mortality in all weight classes, the effects may have been greater at higher BMI levels than at lower BMI levels.
     
    I am mystified that they lumped men and women together in a BMI study given how different they are in body composition. It seems much more reasonable to me to do separate analyses by sex. When I did a similar analysis I saw notably different "optimal" range width for the sexes.

    They did do at least some stratification though, but I see no mention of overall curve differences by sex. Notice the change in HR for over 30 BMI vs. 18.5-24.9!

    Furthermore, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality that was associated with BMI of 30 or greater vs BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 decreased from 1.3 to 1.0 over this 30-year period. These latter findings were robust in analyses stratified by age, sex, smoking status, and history of cardiovascular disease or cancer.
     
    One other thing that makes me cautious about this is that the follow up periods are very different (the mortality rate of the oldest cohort is 7x that of the youngest, looking at different parts of the lifespan). Figure 3 shows how the lowest mortality BMI changes over follow up period for the oldest and youngest cohorts. That clearly shows a difference from the start, but the younger cohort has a decreasing trend that makes me wonder how stable the result will be over time. It might just be noise, but...

    Also worth noting that these cohorts had starting median ages of 54-61. Recommending a BMI of 27 as optimal to a 25 year old does not (IMHO) follow from this data.
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  18. @dux.ie
    It might be too general to directly relate IQ with lifespan. The question is IQ directly or indirectly affecting lifespan? From a scan of the list of jobs with the appropriate IQ, it seems that those for median sub 100 IQ tended to be in more risky jobs which might have longer term effects even after retirement, e.g. agricultural workers with involvment of pesticides.

    http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx

    and the risk/fatalities rates

    https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/statistics-and-research/statistics/fatalities/fatality-statistics

    Very high IQ scientists in the nuclear industry might have shorter lifespan (like those in Iran thanks to MOSSAD) than those working in the retail trades. Airline pilots have more exposure to cosmic rays, etc. A better model should be having sub-models holding the occupation type constant, like the US MIL models.

    "Intelligence and Accidents: A Multilevel Model - Defense Technical ..."

    www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA456227

    Appears to be directly. Simple reaction time takes out a proportion of the variance, which suggest that there is a general factor of system integrity. In summary, the longer lifespans are not primarily due to more intelligent health behaviours.

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  19. @Anonymous
    Utter garbage.

    Elaborate!

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  20. res says:
    @RaceRealist88
    If a thin person eats garbage he'll shorten his lifespan.

    Even then, 27 BMI has the lowest chance for mortality.

    http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2520627

    So...

    Thanks for the link, but you left out what I (and the researchers, it was the sole point in the conclusion) thought was the most interesting part.

    The BMI associated with the lowest all-cause mortality increased by 3.3 from the 1976-1978 cohort compared with the 2003-2013 cohort.

    The hypothesis that occurs to me is simply that “normal” tends to be healthy and increased weight given the changed environment over that time is “normal.” What do you think? Arguing against my hypothesis is that the baseline median BMI changed by less than 1 between the oldest and youngest cohort (I find that surprising given overall obesity trends over time). The researchers offer another hypothesis (which I find plausible):

    A potential explanation for the secular trend may be that while improved treatment for cardiovascular risk factors or complicating diseases has reduced mortality in all weight classes, the effects may have been greater at higher BMI levels than at lower BMI levels.

    I am mystified that they lumped men and women together in a BMI study given how different they are in body composition. It seems much more reasonable to me to do separate analyses by sex. When I did a similar analysis I saw notably different “optimal” range width for the sexes.

    They did do at least some stratification though, but I see no mention of overall curve differences by sex. Notice the change in HR for over 30 BMI vs. 18.5-24.9!

    Furthermore, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality that was associated with BMI of 30 or greater vs BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 decreased from 1.3 to 1.0 over this 30-year period. These latter findings were robust in analyses stratified by age, sex, smoking status, and history of cardiovascular disease or cancer.

    One other thing that makes me cautious about this is that the follow up periods are very different (the mortality rate of the oldest cohort is 7x that of the youngest, looking at different parts of the lifespan). Figure 3 shows how the lowest mortality BMI changes over follow up period for the oldest and youngest cohorts. That clearly shows a difference from the start, but the younger cohort has a decreasing trend that makes me wonder how stable the result will be over time. It might just be noise, but…

    Also worth noting that these cohorts had starting median ages of 54-61. Recommending a BMI of 27 as optimal to a 25 year old does not (IMHO) follow from this data.

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  21. res says:
    @James Thompson
    Check against David Becker figures.

    Becker link (see Figure 1): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303283485_Population_Genetics_in_Intelligence_Research_How_much_can_it_help_to_retrace_the_evolution_of_intelligence

    The one that jumps out at me in Afrosapiens’ data is China. IQs in the 80s (84 for school age children!)?

    If I understand correctly, this is Afrosapiens’ methodology:

    Adult IQs were estimated from mean years of schooling completed by adults aged 25 and older whereas School-population IQs were estimated based on the expected years of schooling that a student is supposed to complete if the enrollment ratios from primary through tertiary education remain constant.

    Becker’s methodology sounds much better to me: “Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results “

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    "Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results"

    These methodologies have huge issues.

    -Samples are seldom nationally representative, there is an over-representation of pathological case and studies are simply averaged (unweighted) without concerns for the countries socio-demographic variables. Even worse, samples are not even collected in the same year. You get a 1970 of 100 orphans, a 1992 of rural school children and a 2012 one of 58 malaria patients averaged as if they represented anyone.

    -Same with school assessment results which fail to include out of school children, there are many of them in China for instance.

    My methodology's main issue is pretending that one year of education has the same cognitive value of 3.7IQ points all over the world which is unlikely. Then I averaged child IQ and Adult IQ to estimate what the IQ would be if we randomly sampled children and adults in 2015. The results would still have representativeness issues but we'd obviously get far fewer pathological samples.

    The strength of my method is that each country's numbers were similarly representative (official UN data, compiled by experts in demography and polling) and were measured in the same year.

    As far as China, if you look at this country's level of development, what should be deemed dubious is an IQ of 105, not an IQ in the 80s that make China rank close to similarly developed countries such as Colombia and Thailand instead of something superior to most developed nations.

    Because you see the problem, if 1.3 billion Chinese with an IQ of 105 can't achieve more development and more education than nations with IQs in the 80s, something is wrong with the numbers. And the wrong numbers are not the World Bank, UNESCO or IMF stats. Even if you say that China is a dictatorship, there are lots of mismanaged or failed states whose mean IQs either estimated by me or Lynn are in line with their development.

    Btw, I think Mr. Thompson referred to this work of Becker: https://www.researchgate.net/project/Worlds-IQ/update/5961e8f74cde26a9e5d0b8df
    , @James Thompson
    Years of schooling is a very weak proxy for intelligence.
    , @Afrosapiens
    Also, another problem with Lynn or Becker's methodology is sample inclusion criteria. Wicherts et al. demonstrated it quite well in the case of Subsaharan Africa and Malloy did the same for the Caribbean and South-East Asia. They applied strict selection methodology and it appears that my estimates are much closer to theirs than to Lynn or Becker's. Subsaharan African IQs are are more commonly in the 75-80 range instead of 65-70 as Lynn pretends. In the Caribbean, Haiti is in the low 70s but the other black countries are all in the 80s or the low 90s.

    As far as China, let's discuss my figures if you like.

    a Child IQ of 90 corresponds to 13.5 years of expected schooling, meaning that the average student will complete some college or post-secondary vocational training. I considered a 5 point difference with Lynn's IQs negligible since individual scores can vary just as much in one's lifetime or on different IQ tests. So if cognitive returns on education are higher in China than in Norway, let's say the average IQ could be up to 95.

    According to my method 90 is the IQ of school-age people in : Colombia, Belgium, Andorra, Oman, Thailand, Cape Verde, and St. Kitts and Nevis. It is also the IQ of 21st century African-American.

    The only questionable figure here that I see is "only" 90 for Belgium, China ranks alongside countries that look like her. Translated into years education, completing some college or some vocational post-secondary is enough to be skilled and work in a high tech environment.

    The countries with a student IQ of 95 are Slovakia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Brunei. These countries tend to be significantly more developed than China which indeed fits better in the 90 club.

    The adult IQ I calculated for China is 79, equaling 7.6 years of education (middle school dropout). And it is similar to Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Libya and Zimbabwe. Once again, these are countries that looked very similar to China a couple of decades ago. If we add 5 points, the countries scoring 84 are: Portugal, Mauritius, Brunei, Bosnia, Peru and Palestine. Once again, China was much poorer than these countries some decades ago. Portugal scores only 84 because adults their are older and were schooled some years before those in the other countries.

    Averaging, adult and child IQ: I went to a score of 84 for China, similar to Colombia, Philippines, Suriname, Dominican republic, Indonesia, Dominica, Gabon and Turkmenistan. whereas giving China a score of 89 would make her on par with Brunei, Azerbaijan, Bahrein, Andorra, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Albania, Venezuela, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Iran and the Seychelles. Once again, China fits better in the 84 club.

    I deem my figures much more realistic and on par with socio-economic development variables. Because here is the fact, China has extremely low education levels for a country where mean IQ is supposed to be 105 and a low tech economy, social dysfunctionality, mismanagement: in short, it is not a developed country.
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  22. @res
    Becker link (see Figure 1): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303283485_Population_Genetics_in_Intelligence_Research_How_much_can_it_help_to_retrace_the_evolution_of_intelligence

    The one that jumps out at me in Afrosapiens' data is China. IQs in the 80s (84 for school age children!)?

    If I understand correctly, this is Afrosapiens' methodology:

    Adult IQs were estimated from mean years of schooling completed by adults aged 25 and older whereas School-population IQs were estimated based on the expected years of schooling that a student is supposed to complete if the enrollment ratios from primary through tertiary education remain constant.

     

    Becker's methodology sounds much better to me: "Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results "

    “Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results”

    These methodologies have huge issues.

    -Samples are seldom nationally representative, there is an over-representation of pathological case and studies are simply averaged (unweighted) without concerns for the countries socio-demographic variables. Even worse, samples are not even collected in the same year. You get a 1970 of 100 orphans, a 1992 of rural school children and a 2012 one of 58 malaria patients averaged as if they represented anyone.

    -Same with school assessment results which fail to include out of school children, there are many of them in China for instance.

    My methodology’s main issue is pretending that one year of education has the same cognitive value of 3.7IQ points all over the world which is unlikely. Then I averaged child IQ and Adult IQ to estimate what the IQ would be if we randomly sampled children and adults in 2015. The results would still have representativeness issues but we’d obviously get far fewer pathological samples.

    The strength of my method is that each country’s numbers were similarly representative (official UN data, compiled by experts in demography and polling) and were measured in the same year.

    As far as China, if you look at this country’s level of development, what should be deemed dubious is an IQ of 105, not an IQ in the 80s that make China rank close to similarly developed countries such as Colombia and Thailand instead of something superior to most developed nations.

    Because you see the problem, if 1.3 billion Chinese with an IQ of 105 can’t achieve more development and more education than nations with IQs in the 80s, something is wrong with the numbers. And the wrong numbers are not the World Bank, UNESCO or IMF stats. Even if you say that China is a dictatorship, there are lots of mismanaged or failed states whose mean IQs either estimated by me or Lynn are in line with their development.

    Btw, I think Mr. Thompson referred to this work of Becker: https://www.researchgate.net/project/Worlds-IQ/update/5961e8f74cde26a9e5d0b8df

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  23. @res
    Becker link (see Figure 1): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303283485_Population_Genetics_in_Intelligence_Research_How_much_can_it_help_to_retrace_the_evolution_of_intelligence

    The one that jumps out at me in Afrosapiens' data is China. IQs in the 80s (84 for school age children!)?

    If I understand correctly, this is Afrosapiens' methodology:

    Adult IQs were estimated from mean years of schooling completed by adults aged 25 and older whereas School-population IQs were estimated based on the expected years of schooling that a student is supposed to complete if the enrollment ratios from primary through tertiary education remain constant.

     

    Becker's methodology sounds much better to me: "Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results "

    Years of schooling is a very weak proxy for intelligence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Yet it is exactly the measure that GWAS and GCTA use to claim association between SNPs and intelligence. They have constructed the Eduyears score.
    , @res
    I basically agree. Do you have any data for just how weak a proxy cross culturally? Most of the data I have seen looks at the correlation within a single culture. For example, this interesting paper on the causal? relationship between education and intelligence and discussing the implications on study design and interpretation which incidentally quotes a typical correlation of 0.5: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/39/5/1362/802787/Intelligence-and-education-causal-perceptions

    Perhaps a good data source for evaluating that question would be combining Afrosapiens' data with Becker's data and looking at the correlation?

    I think part of the problem with using educational attainment as a metric for country average IQ is that one of the more useful questions to ask is which countries might benefit most from spending more money on education.

    P.S. Any thoughts on what you would call "weak proxy" in a more rigorous sense? For instance, this source says (I think, though I might be overinterpreting their terminology) r=0.20-0.35: https://bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13104-017-2683-9

    In order for child and parent proxy measures to be considered sufficiently associated, correlation coefficients had to be defined as moderate or strong (r s of <0.20 = absent; r s of 0.20 to 0.35 = weak; r s of 0.35 to 0.50 = moderate; r s of ≥0.50 = strong) [18].
     
    , @Afrosapiens
    And no, the reported correlations between IQ and educational attainment tend to be very high. Maybe they are weaker in the developing world. But if it were true, I'd assume years of education underestimate the intelligence of developing world populations.
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  24. @res
    Becker link (see Figure 1): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303283485_Population_Genetics_in_Intelligence_Research_How_much_can_it_help_to_retrace_the_evolution_of_intelligence

    The one that jumps out at me in Afrosapiens' data is China. IQs in the 80s (84 for school age children!)?

    If I understand correctly, this is Afrosapiens' methodology:

    Adult IQs were estimated from mean years of schooling completed by adults aged 25 and older whereas School-population IQs were estimated based on the expected years of schooling that a student is supposed to complete if the enrollment ratios from primary through tertiary education remain constant.

     

    Becker's methodology sounds much better to me: "Fig1 Old world distribution of national IQ-values, calculated by results of psycho-metric test and school assesment results "

    Also, another problem with Lynn or Becker’s methodology is sample inclusion criteria. Wicherts et al. demonstrated it quite well in the case of Subsaharan Africa and Malloy did the same for the Caribbean and South-East Asia. They applied strict selection methodology and it appears that my estimates are much closer to theirs than to Lynn or Becker’s. Subsaharan African IQs are are more commonly in the 75-80 range instead of 65-70 as Lynn pretends. In the Caribbean, Haiti is in the low 70s but the other black countries are all in the 80s or the low 90s.

    As far as China, let’s discuss my figures if you like.

    a Child IQ of 90 corresponds to 13.5 years of expected schooling, meaning that the average student will complete some college or post-secondary vocational training. I considered a 5 point difference with Lynn’s IQs negligible since individual scores can vary just as much in one’s lifetime or on different IQ tests. So if cognitive returns on education are higher in China than in Norway, let’s say the average IQ could be up to 95.

    According to my method 90 is the IQ of school-age people in : Colombia, Belgium, Andorra, Oman, Thailand, Cape Verde, and St. Kitts and Nevis. It is also the IQ of 21st century African-American.

    The only questionable figure here that I see is “only” 90 for Belgium, China ranks alongside countries that look like her. Translated into years education, completing some college or some vocational post-secondary is enough to be skilled and work in a high tech environment.

    The countries with a student IQ of 95 are Slovakia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Brunei. These countries tend to be significantly more developed than China which indeed fits better in the 90 club.

    The adult IQ I calculated for China is 79, equaling 7.6 years of education (middle school dropout). And it is similar to Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Libya and Zimbabwe. Once again, these are countries that looked very similar to China a couple of decades ago. If we add 5 points, the countries scoring 84 are: Portugal, Mauritius, Brunei, Bosnia, Peru and Palestine. Once again, China was much poorer than these countries some decades ago. Portugal scores only 84 because adults their are older and were schooled some years before those in the other countries.

    Averaging, adult and child IQ: I went to a score of 84 for China, similar to Colombia, Philippines, Suriname, Dominican republic, Indonesia, Dominica, Gabon and Turkmenistan. whereas giving China a score of 89 would make her on par with Brunei, Azerbaijan, Bahrein, Andorra, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Albania, Venezuela, the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Iran and the Seychelles. Once again, China fits better in the 84 club.

    I deem my figures much more realistic and on par with socio-economic development variables. Because here is the fact, China has extremely low education levels for a country where mean IQ is supposed to be 105 and a low tech economy, social dysfunctionality, mismanagement: in short, it is not a developed country.

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  25. @James Thompson
    Years of schooling is a very weak proxy for intelligence.

    Yet it is exactly the measure that GWAS and GCTA use to claim association between SNPs and intelligence. They have constructed the Eduyears score.

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Thompson
    Agree. They did so in European countries, which have similar high standard educations systems, but it is still a weak proxy. More recent paper by Sniekers (2017) was done on actual IQs and found novel genes.
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  26. res says:
    @James Thompson
    Years of schooling is a very weak proxy for intelligence.

    I basically agree. Do you have any data for just how weak a proxy cross culturally? Most of the data I have seen looks at the correlation within a single culture. For example, this interesting paper on the causal? relationship between education and intelligence and discussing the implications on study design and interpretation which incidentally quotes a typical correlation of 0.5: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/39/5/1362/802787/Intelligence-and-education-causal-perceptions

    Perhaps a good data source for evaluating that question would be combining Afrosapiens’ data with Becker’s data and looking at the correlation?

    I think part of the problem with using educational attainment as a metric for country average IQ is that one of the more useful questions to ask is which countries might benefit most from spending more money on education.

    P.S. Any thoughts on what you would call “weak proxy” in a more rigorous sense? For instance, this source says (I think, though I might be overinterpreting their terminology) r=0.20-0.35: https://bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13104-017-2683-9

    In order for child and parent proxy measures to be considered sufficiently associated, correlation coefficients had to be defined as moderate or strong (r s of <0.20 = absent; r s of 0.20 to 0.35 = weak; r s of 0.35 to 0.50 = moderate; r s of ≥0.50 = strong) [18].

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  27. @James Thompson
    Years of schooling is a very weak proxy for intelligence.

    And no, the reported correlations between IQ and educational attainment tend to be very high. Maybe they are weaker in the developing world. But if it were true, I’d assume years of education underestimate the intelligence of developing world populations.

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  28. Alden says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    What’s education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests? The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    What’s education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests?

    It is the number of years that students are expected to spend in school, and the level that adults have attained. I don't doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country. But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.

    The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?

    It doesn't exist in most countries where education isn't free, where youth are urged to work early and where families can't afford to send their children to school to slack off.

    Now it's up to you to believe a Chinese middle school dropout has the same or superior professional skills and cognitive abilities as an American college graduate. But that doesn't exist in the real world.
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  29. Educational attainment (EA) is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are also estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals1. We report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for EA that extends our earlier discovery sample1,2 of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We now identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioral phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because EA is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric disease.

    This is the type of studies from which Davide Piffer calculated his IQ polygenic scores.

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  30. @Alden
    What's education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests? The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?

    What’s education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests?

    It is the number of years that students are expected to spend in school, and the level that adults have attained. I don’t doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country. But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.

    The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?

    It doesn’t exist in most countries where education isn’t free, where youth are urged to work early and where families can’t afford to send their children to school to slack off.

    Now it’s up to you to believe a Chinese middle school dropout has the same or superior professional skills and cognitive abilities as an American college graduate. But that doesn’t exist in the real world.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    I don’t doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country.
     
    And yet you've assigned 3.7 IQ points to every year of "additional education" globally and used that brick to build your case. Why? Have you tried attending a 7th grade class in Norway, Ghana, Japan or Burkina Faso. How about a gender studies class vs Physics? Are special schools admitting 70 IQ kids and "curing" them?

    But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.
     
    If you can't figure out that higher ability leads to better results no one can help you. If you can't see the difference between a Swiss and a Somalian High-school, again, no one can help you.
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  31. FKA Max says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    Sub-Saharan African countries have been systematically under-estimated and East-Asian ones have been systematically over-estimated by Lynn

    Thank you very much for this thought-provoking research!

    I believe you are very much correct in your conclusion.

    The following is just anecdotal evidence, but, I believe, lends credence to your findings:

    There is a very smart contingent who get headlines, but in my experience the claim that Jews or Asians (spent years in Asia as well) are smarter than US Whites is hidden far-left propaganda.

    IQ-wise, Western and especially Britannic (North UK, North Spain, North France/Dutch) US Whites rule.
    [...]
    As an educational psychologist I’ve talked my way into seeing the original data on many of these silly and fraudulent studies. They typically misdefine or mismatch populations or methods to get the results they want. Many are as goofy as the FISA tests, comparing e.g. 15 year old Whites to Ashkenazi adults. One used Catell IQ for the Ashkenazi and Binet for the Euros. Some simply define Ashkenazi as any one of them who is professional and ignore those of low education or mental ability.

    There may be some effect, but it’s overblown and the studies if you see the original data don’t support the thesis. Don’t underestimate the corruption of science data by the far-left (and far-right).

    http://www.unz.com/runz/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/#comment-1959613

    The Bloomberg Innovation Index might also be of interest to you, as an additional data point to support your thesis:

    There’s something about those Nordic countries.
    [...]
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/sweden-gains-south-korea-reigns-as-world-s-most-innovative-economies

    The following ranking of the Bloomberg Innovation Index is from 2015, and countries rise or fall within the ranking from year to year, but the dominance of the historically majority Protestant nations with Northern European-derived populations in the Top 20 is very consistent:

    It is actually eleven (11) historically majority Protestant/Northern European nations in the Top 20; 55% of the list.

    Germany(3rd), Finland(4th), USA(6th), Sweden(7th), UK(10th), Denmark(11th), Canada(12th), Australia(13th), Norway(15th), New Zealand(18th), Netherlands(20th).

    I did not include Switzerland(16th) — even though Switzerland, historically, has been almost 50% Protestant, in particular the innovative cities were predominantly Protestant — because it is not really Northern European

    - http://www.unz.com/isteve/everything-about-sat-math-racial-gaps-has-changed-since-1972/#comment-1762852

    http://www.unz.com/article/two-cheers-for-trump-advisor-mike-anton-he-has-the-right-enemies/#comment-1772339

    In a paper written in 2009 for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, entitled Was Weber Wrong?, Becker and Woessmann argue that Protestants were more successful because they had the advantage of a better and longer education. Further research has led them to conclude that the educational advantage began soon after Martin Luther broke away from the established Church in the 16th century and has continued to play its part in creating economic success throughout Europe.
    [...]
    Phillipe Rushton thought, that East Asians historically have been ahead of Europeans and the recent European accomplishments are just “blips” in the larger context of human accomplishment throughout history, i.e., a rare exception[] to the rule, which can be explained by events like the “Black Death,” etc.
    [...]
    This could be the reason for the decline in human accomplishment; a lower number, per capita, of blue-eyed persons living on planet Earth

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/scrabbling-for-excellence/#comment-1911398

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    I don't know about the data, but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians and Jews have higher average IQ than whites given their overrepresentation--especially when looking more closely at above average for such a place subgroups there.

    Obligatory "IQ is not everything" disclaimer (for those who like to misrepresent what I believe). And innovation provides an excellent illustration of that as you mention.

    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.
    , @Afrosapiens
    I won't follow you in your nordicist narrative. However, no socio-economic data on East-Asian countries indicate that they have something that makes them more fit for development.

    But yeah, my estimates tell that these Nordic countries have something that East Asians don't have and it is in line with all the quality of life and economic performance data. My data is based on years of education, so maybe it just means education is more important than IQ to build a prosperous nation.

    It is well established that education and IQ are related, and it is unquestionable that education data is much more robust than IQ data, especially when it comes to international comparison.

    I'm about to calculate the correlations between my data and Lynn's with human development index. to see which one is stronger.
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  32. @Afrosapiens
    Yet it is exactly the measure that GWAS and GCTA use to claim association between SNPs and intelligence. They have constructed the Eduyears score.

    Agree. They did so in European countries, which have similar high standard educations systems, but it is still a weak proxy. More recent paper by Sniekers (2017) was done on actual IQs and found novel genes.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    They did so in European countries, which have similar high standard educations systems

    So if those countries have similar education systems, country differences in years of schooling are even more representative of intellectual differences within Europe.

    it is still a weak proxy

    ? A proxy is never perfect but I would not call it weak. In any case, I think it's a weaker proxy in developing countries where access to education is restricted by socio-economic factors independently of a child's cognitive ability.

    More recent paper by Sniekers (2017) was done on actual IQs and found novel genes.

    This is what has to be expected from measuring a phenotype directly. But they also replicated the hits associated with years of education, which means the proxy was good.
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  33. res says:
    @FKA Max

    Sub-Saharan African countries have been systematically under-estimated and East-Asian ones have been systematically over-estimated by Lynn
     
    Thank you very much for this thought-provoking research!

    I believe you are very much correct in your conclusion.

    The following is just anecdotal evidence, but, I believe, lends credence to your findings:

    There is a very smart contingent who get headlines, but in my experience the claim that Jews or Asians (spent years in Asia as well) are smarter than US Whites is hidden far-left propaganda.

    IQ-wise, Western and especially Britannic (North UK, North Spain, North France/Dutch) US Whites rule.
    [...]
    As an educational psychologist I’ve talked my way into seeing the original data on many of these silly and fraudulent studies. They typically misdefine or mismatch populations or methods to get the results they want. Many are as goofy as the FISA tests, comparing e.g. 15 year old Whites to Ashkenazi adults. One used Catell IQ for the Ashkenazi and Binet for the Euros. Some simply define Ashkenazi as any one of them who is professional and ignore those of low education or mental ability.

    There may be some effect, but it’s overblown and the studies if you see the original data don’t support the thesis. Don’t underestimate the corruption of science data by the far-left (and far-right).
     

    - http://www.unz.com/runz/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/#comment-1959613

    The Bloomberg Innovation Index might also be of interest to you, as an additional data point to support your thesis:


    There’s something about those Nordic countries.
    [...]
    – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/sweden-gains-south-korea-reigns-as-world-s-most-innovative-economies

    The following ranking of the Bloomberg Innovation Index is from 2015, and countries rise or fall within the ranking from year to year, but the dominance of the historically majority Protestant nations with Northern European-derived populations in the Top 20 is very consistent:

    It is actually eleven (11) historically majority Protestant/Northern European nations in the Top 20; 55% of the list.

    Germany(3rd), Finland(4th), USA(6th), Sweden(7th), UK(10th), Denmark(11th), Canada(12th), Australia(13th), Norway(15th), New Zealand(18th), Netherlands(20th).

    I did not include Switzerland(16th) — even though Switzerland, historically, has been almost 50% Protestant, in particular the innovative cities were predominantly Protestant — because it is not really Northern European

    - http://www.unz.com/isteve/everything-about-sat-math-racial-gaps-has-changed-since-1972/#comment-1762852

     

    - http://www.unz.com/article/two-cheers-for-trump-advisor-mike-anton-he-has-the-right-enemies/#comment-1772339

    In a paper written in 2009 for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, entitled Was Weber Wrong?, Becker and Woessmann argue that Protestants were more successful because they had the advantage of a better and longer education. Further research has led them to conclude that the educational advantage began soon after Martin Luther broke away from the established Church in the 16th century and has continued to play its part in creating economic success throughout Europe.
    [...]
    Phillipe Rushton thought, that East Asians historically have been ahead of Europeans and the recent European accomplishments are just “blips” in the larger context of human accomplishment throughout history, i.e., a rare exception[] to the rule, which can be explained by events like the “Black Death,” etc.
    [...]
    This could be the reason for the decline in human accomplishment; a lower number, per capita, of blue-eyed persons living on planet Earth
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/scrabbling-for-excellence/#comment-1911398

    I don’t know about the data, but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians and Jews have higher average IQ than whites given their overrepresentation–especially when looking more closely at above average for such a place subgroups there.

    Obligatory “IQ is not everything” disclaimer (for those who like to misrepresent what I believe). And innovation provides an excellent illustration of that as you mention.

    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.


    If you're referring to me, you are misinterpreting my views.

    I think IQs are lower in China and Africa, and the reason for it is lack of development in both places.

    Scholastic achievement is not just lower in some parts of China, it is lower in the whole country. The PISA scores are those of the select few that are schooled in China's most developed provinces. We have no data for the overwhelming majority: those who dropped out or are schooled in the other provinces.

    but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians

    And you think those few thousands of wealthy East-Asians are representative of the 1.5 billion of mostly menial laborers who barely completed high school? And by the way, why are they studying in the US and not the other way around?
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  34. @FKA Max

    Sub-Saharan African countries have been systematically under-estimated and East-Asian ones have been systematically over-estimated by Lynn
     
    Thank you very much for this thought-provoking research!

    I believe you are very much correct in your conclusion.

    The following is just anecdotal evidence, but, I believe, lends credence to your findings:

    There is a very smart contingent who get headlines, but in my experience the claim that Jews or Asians (spent years in Asia as well) are smarter than US Whites is hidden far-left propaganda.

    IQ-wise, Western and especially Britannic (North UK, North Spain, North France/Dutch) US Whites rule.
    [...]
    As an educational psychologist I’ve talked my way into seeing the original data on many of these silly and fraudulent studies. They typically misdefine or mismatch populations or methods to get the results they want. Many are as goofy as the FISA tests, comparing e.g. 15 year old Whites to Ashkenazi adults. One used Catell IQ for the Ashkenazi and Binet for the Euros. Some simply define Ashkenazi as any one of them who is professional and ignore those of low education or mental ability.

    There may be some effect, but it’s overblown and the studies if you see the original data don’t support the thesis. Don’t underestimate the corruption of science data by the far-left (and far-right).
     

    - http://www.unz.com/runz/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/#comment-1959613

    The Bloomberg Innovation Index might also be of interest to you, as an additional data point to support your thesis:


    There’s something about those Nordic countries.
    [...]
    – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/sweden-gains-south-korea-reigns-as-world-s-most-innovative-economies

    The following ranking of the Bloomberg Innovation Index is from 2015, and countries rise or fall within the ranking from year to year, but the dominance of the historically majority Protestant nations with Northern European-derived populations in the Top 20 is very consistent:

    It is actually eleven (11) historically majority Protestant/Northern European nations in the Top 20; 55% of the list.

    Germany(3rd), Finland(4th), USA(6th), Sweden(7th), UK(10th), Denmark(11th), Canada(12th), Australia(13th), Norway(15th), New Zealand(18th), Netherlands(20th).

    I did not include Switzerland(16th) — even though Switzerland, historically, has been almost 50% Protestant, in particular the innovative cities were predominantly Protestant — because it is not really Northern European

    - http://www.unz.com/isteve/everything-about-sat-math-racial-gaps-has-changed-since-1972/#comment-1762852

     

    - http://www.unz.com/article/two-cheers-for-trump-advisor-mike-anton-he-has-the-right-enemies/#comment-1772339

    In a paper written in 2009 for the Quarterly Journal of Economics, entitled Was Weber Wrong?, Becker and Woessmann argue that Protestants were more successful because they had the advantage of a better and longer education. Further research has led them to conclude that the educational advantage began soon after Martin Luther broke away from the established Church in the 16th century and has continued to play its part in creating economic success throughout Europe.
    [...]
    Phillipe Rushton thought, that East Asians historically have been ahead of Europeans and the recent European accomplishments are just “blips” in the larger context of human accomplishment throughout history, i.e., a rare exception[] to the rule, which can be explained by events like the “Black Death,” etc.
    [...]
    This could be the reason for the decline in human accomplishment; a lower number, per capita, of blue-eyed persons living on planet Earth
     
    - http://www.unz.com/jthompson/scrabbling-for-excellence/#comment-1911398

    I won’t follow you in your nordicist narrative. However, no socio-economic data on East-Asian countries indicate that they have something that makes them more fit for development.

    But yeah, my estimates tell that these Nordic countries have something that East Asians don’t have and it is in line with all the quality of life and economic performance data. My data is based on years of education, so maybe it just means education is more important than IQ to build a prosperous nation.

    It is well established that education and IQ are related, and it is unquestionable that education data is much more robust than IQ data, especially when it comes to international comparison.

    I’m about to calculate the correlations between my data and Lynn’s with human development index. to see which one is stronger.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn's estimates: 0.81

    My estimates predict national prosperity almost perfectly.

    Lynn's are good predictors too, they have a 0.76 correlation with mine, and an average difference of only 1 IQ point. But it varies a lot depending on the racial composition of the countries. The differences between my estimates an Lynn's are:

    Black majority: +6pts
    East European majority: +1pt
    Metizo or Mulatto majority: +1pt
    North-East Asian majority: -11pts
    South-Asian Majority: -2pts
    South-East Asian/Polynesian majority: -5pts
    Middle-Eastern/North African majority: +1pt
    West-European majority: +1pt

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I'm only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.
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  35. @James Thompson
    Agree. They did so in European countries, which have similar high standard educations systems, but it is still a weak proxy. More recent paper by Sniekers (2017) was done on actual IQs and found novel genes.

    They did so in European countries, which have similar high standard educations systems

    So if those countries have similar education systems, country differences in years of schooling are even more representative of intellectual differences within Europe.

    it is still a weak proxy

    ? A proxy is never perfect but I would not call it weak. In any case, I think it’s a weaker proxy in developing countries where access to education is restricted by socio-economic factors independently of a child’s cognitive ability.

    More recent paper by Sniekers (2017) was done on actual IQs and found novel genes.

    This is what has to be expected from measuring a phenotype directly. But they also replicated the hits associated with years of education, which means the proxy was good.

    Read More
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  36. @res
    I don't know about the data, but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians and Jews have higher average IQ than whites given their overrepresentation--especially when looking more closely at above average for such a place subgroups there.

    Obligatory "IQ is not everything" disclaimer (for those who like to misrepresent what I believe). And innovation provides an excellent illustration of that as you mention.

    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.

    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.

    If you’re referring to me, you are misinterpreting my views.

    I think IQs are lower in China and Africa, and the reason for it is lack of development in both places.

    Scholastic achievement is not just lower in some parts of China, it is lower in the whole country. The PISA scores are those of the select few that are schooled in China’s most developed provinces. We have no data for the overwhelming majority: those who dropped out or are schooled in the other provinces.

    but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians

    And you think those few thousands of wealthy East-Asians are representative of the 1.5 billion of mostly menial laborers who barely completed high school? And by the way, why are they studying in the US and not the other way around?

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    I find your IQ numbers for China very hard to believe. I think any methodology that results in an IQ estimate for Chinese schoolchildren of 84 should be treated with extreme skepticism. One might argue that is only one country, but given that it accounts for about 20% of the world population I would say it is rather important.

    This 2012 paper by Lynn and Cheng gives IQ, education, GDP, and ethnic composition for each of 31 regions in China: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Differences-in-intelligence-across-thirty-one-regions-of-China-and-their-economic-and-demographic-correlates.pdf

    Every single one of those regions has a measured average IQ over 100 (mean 105, SD 1.91).

    Years of education correlates (between regions) with IQ at a not statistically significant r = 0.32
    They created a multivariate regression model (Table 3) for IQ based on years of education, log(GDP), and % Han. The best explanatory variable was % Han. Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    In the discussion text they propose a positive feedback loop between income and IQ. Overall their focus (driven by the data) is on % Han and GDP as the important explanatory variables for IQ.

    China is over 90% Han Chinese overall: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/intro/nationality/


    And you think those few thousands of wealthy East-Asians are representative of the 1.5 billion of mostly menial laborers who barely completed high school? And by the way, why are they studying in the US and not the other way around?
     
    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population. Perhaps you can tell me how those menial labors have managed to build an advanced industrial society in a few decades? And done it (mostly) themselves rather than importing other groups to do the heavy intellectual lifting like Africa seems to.

    As for why they are studying in the US. Because the US has more good schools and better technology at this time. I am very curious how that will play out over time. I am equally curious about whether the Asians will prove as adept at extending the leading edge as they have been at catch up. I think early evidence indicates they will have success there (e.g. Japanese Nobel prizes), but I don't know if it will be to the same degree.

    I'm not saying the Chinese (or Japanese or Koreans, I would include all of those in this discussion) are supermen and I have a healthy respect for the ability and accomplishments of people of European descent. Even more so when we are not consuming ourselves battling each other about identity politics and trying to maintain an obviously false Narrative of reality.

    P.S. Some concerns about that paper. I would appreciate feedback from someone better acquainted with the IQ literature.

    First paragraph of section 2. Methods:

    Data on IQs for 31 regions of China were obtained for a sample of 63,636 participants who took the test on a Chinese online IQ testing website (http://tw.iqeq.com.cn/). The data on this website are given in Chinese and hence inaccessible to most readers of this journal. The IQ test was based on the Stanford–Binet test and comprised 60 questions on verbal, quantitative and spatial reasoning. The website does not give any information on the reliability and validity but we would assume that these would be reasonable, as the test was based on the Stanford–Binet test. The time allowed to complete the test was 45 minutes.
     
    From the final page:

    Second, taking the test was voluntary and the average IQ of those taking the test will likely have been a little higher than the average of the population. This is suggested by the fact that the test was normed on a mean of 100 and SD of 15, but the mean of the sample that took the test was 105. It is likely that those taking the test will have been more selective samples in the regions with lower IQs. The effect of this will likely have been to inflate the IQs in the lower IQ regions and hence reduce the range of the regional IQs. However, the effect of this seems to be quite small. The range of the regional IQs in the present study is from 101 (Qinghai) to 108 (Jiangsu and Shanghai), a 7 point difference.
     
    So I see no effort to map to European mean 100 SD 15 norms. And the test taking bias is of some concern.

    I wish they had done something like find a sample fluent in both Chinese and English and have them also take something like the Weschler. Or alternatively (and I am curious why they did not do this) include a Raven's test that is normed on other populations. They did discuss use of an adapted RPM in referenced studies comparing Mongolians and Han Chinese.
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  37. @Afrosapiens
    I won't follow you in your nordicist narrative. However, no socio-economic data on East-Asian countries indicate that they have something that makes them more fit for development.

    But yeah, my estimates tell that these Nordic countries have something that East Asians don't have and it is in line with all the quality of life and economic performance data. My data is based on years of education, so maybe it just means education is more important than IQ to build a prosperous nation.

    It is well established that education and IQ are related, and it is unquestionable that education data is much more robust than IQ data, especially when it comes to international comparison.

    I'm about to calculate the correlations between my data and Lynn's with human development index. to see which one is stronger.

    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn’s estimates: 0.81

    My estimates predict national prosperity almost perfectly.

    Lynn’s are good predictors too, they have a 0.76 correlation with mine, and an average difference of only 1 IQ point. But it varies a lot depending on the racial composition of the countries. The differences between my estimates an Lynn’s are:

    Black majority: +6pts
    East European majority: +1pt
    Metizo or Mulatto majority: +1pt
    North-East Asian majority: -11pts
    South-Asian Majority: -2pts
    South-East Asian/Polynesian majority: -5pts
    Middle-Eastern/North African majority: +1pt
    West-European majority: +1pt

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I’m only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.
    , @FKA Max

    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn’s estimates: 0.81
     
    Nice correlation!

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg/450px-2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg.png

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg

    Maybe you could clean up ( see here: ``...systematically over-estimated by Lynn, also, Some nations in Europe, the Middle-East...''), update (i.e., add the HDI correlation) and generally review/revise your article, and then submit it to the Unz Review for potential publication to a wider audience to expand the discussion/debate: http://www.unz.com/masthead/#contact-us

    You could add some of the content from this comment of yours http://www.unz.com/jthompson/intelligent-lifespans/#comment-1996349 and the one I am replying to here to your article, as well:

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I’m only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.
     
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  38. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn's estimates: 0.81

    My estimates predict national prosperity almost perfectly.

    Lynn's are good predictors too, they have a 0.76 correlation with mine, and an average difference of only 1 IQ point. But it varies a lot depending on the racial composition of the countries. The differences between my estimates an Lynn's are:

    Black majority: +6pts
    East European majority: +1pt
    Metizo or Mulatto majority: +1pt
    North-East Asian majority: -11pts
    South-Asian Majority: -2pts
    South-East Asian/Polynesian majority: -5pts
    Middle-Eastern/North African majority: +1pt
    West-European majority: +1pt

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I'm only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.

    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation). This page has historical data back to 1980 for the EI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980? If so there are some countries with impressive IQ gains over that period. I'm not sure the 1980 derived IQ values are plausible though.

    One possible issue is the EI calculation changed significantly in 2010 and I don't know if the historical data above reflects that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#Old_method_.28before_2010_Index.29
    , @Afrosapiens
    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.

    It's a feedback loop: countries develop, then expand their educational systems in quantity and quality, it enhances development and so on.

    But what we're discussing is the pertinence of converting years of schooling to IQ scores. And my opinion is that we're if arguing that intelligence leads to prosperity, then my method of estimating national IQs backs the hypothesis more than Lynn's method.
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  39. FKA Max says:
    @Afrosapiens
    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn's estimates: 0.81

    My estimates predict national prosperity almost perfectly.

    Lynn's are good predictors too, they have a 0.76 correlation with mine, and an average difference of only 1 IQ point. But it varies a lot depending on the racial composition of the countries. The differences between my estimates an Lynn's are:

    Black majority: +6pts
    East European majority: +1pt
    Metizo or Mulatto majority: +1pt
    North-East Asian majority: -11pts
    South-Asian Majority: -2pts
    South-East Asian/Polynesian majority: -5pts
    Middle-Eastern/North African majority: +1pt
    West-European majority: +1pt

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I'm only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.

    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn’s estimates: 0.81

    Nice correlation!

    Maybe you could clean up ( see here: “…systematically over-estimated by Lynn, also, Some nations in Europe, the Middle-East…”), update (i.e., add the HDI correlation) and generally review/revise your article, and then submit it to the Unz Review for potential publication to a wider audience to expand the discussion/debate: http://www.unz.com/masthead/#contact-us

    You could add some of the content from this comment of yours http://www.unz.com/jthompson/intelligent-lifespans/#comment-1996349 and the one I am replying to here to your article, as well:

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I’m only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Thanks for the tips. Yes, I'd be glad to discuss that with more people.

    And indeed the correlation I found is impressive. Lynn's correlation is good, but not so good, he explains 66% of the variance in development, I explain 92%.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg/450px-2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg.png
    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://static.iq-research.info/20150809/img/iq_by_country.png

    The differences are obvious, my map describes something that is mostly caused or causes development, Lynn's map describes something that is caused or that causes race.
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  40. res says:
    @res
    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.

    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation). This page has historical data back to 1980 for the EI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980? If so there are some countries with impressive IQ gains over that period. I’m not sure the 1980 derived IQ values are plausible though.

    One possible issue is the EI calculation changed significantly in 2010 and I don’t know if the historical data above reflects that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#Old_method_.28before_2010_Index.29

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation

    Yes, one of the three, the others being life expectancy and GDP per capita. I can compare how my estimates correlate with Lynn's.

    Yet again, it doesn't explain how some countries, mysteriously concentrated in some regions (East-Asia, Subsaharan Africa and the black countries of the Caribbean) have socio-economic outcomes that differ significantly from what we would expect based on Lynn's IQs. Because it's only a problem with those countries, my estimates are otherwise concordant with Lynn's for most other world regions. He over-estimated South-East Asia to a lesser extent possibly to make them look smarter than the South Asians, Hispanics and Middle Easterners that the far right despises more.

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.
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  41. @res
    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.

    Human development index correlating with educational availability seems a much more parsimonious explanation. Still, those correlations are impressive.

    It’s a feedback loop: countries develop, then expand their educational systems in quantity and quality, it enhances development and so on.

    But what we’re discussing is the pertinence of converting years of schooling to IQ scores. And my opinion is that we’re if arguing that intelligence leads to prosperity, then my method of estimating national IQs backs the hypothesis more than Lynn’s method.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  42. @FKA Max

    The correlations between IQ and Human Development index:

    My estimates: 0.96
    Lynn’s estimates: 0.81
     
    Nice correlation!

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg/450px-2016_UN_Human_Development_Report.svg.png

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg

    Maybe you could clean up ( see here: ``...systematically over-estimated by Lynn, also, Some nations in Europe, the Middle-East...''), update (i.e., add the HDI correlation) and generally review/revise your article, and then submit it to the Unz Review for potential publication to a wider audience to expand the discussion/debate: http://www.unz.com/masthead/#contact-us

    You could add some of the content from this comment of yours http://www.unz.com/jthompson/intelligent-lifespans/#comment-1996349 and the one I am replying to here to your article, as well:

    Whatever you think is the reason for these differences, the fact is that my estimates give much more credence to the relationship between IQ and Human development. And if you think Lynn estimated intelligence better than me, and that I’m only presenting education data, then education predicts development better than intelligence.
     

    Thanks for the tips. Yes, I’d be glad to discuss that with more people.

    And indeed the correlation I found is impressive. Lynn’s correlation is good, but not so good, he explains 66% of the variance in development, I explain 92%.

    The differences are obvious, my map describes something that is mostly caused or causes development, Lynn’s map describes something that is caused or that causes race.

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  43. @res
    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation). This page has historical data back to 1980 for the EI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980? If so there are some countries with impressive IQ gains over that period. I'm not sure the 1980 derived IQ values are plausible though.

    One possible issue is the EI calculation changed significantly in 2010 and I don't know if the historical data above reflects that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#Old_method_.28before_2010_Index.29

    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation

    Yes, one of the three, the others being life expectancy and GDP per capita. I can compare how my estimates correlate with Lynn’s.

    Yet again, it doesn’t explain how some countries, mysteriously concentrated in some regions (East-Asia, Subsaharan Africa and the black countries of the Caribbean) have socio-economic outcomes that differ significantly from what we would expect based on Lynn’s IQs. Because it’s only a problem with those countries, my estimates are otherwise concordant with Lynn’s for most other world regions. He over-estimated South-East Asia to a lesser extent possibly to make them look smarter than the South Asians, Hispanics and Middle Easterners that the far right despises more.

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    I calculated the correlations between IQ and GDP per Capita (PPP):

    Me: 0.65
    Lynn: 0.60

    And life expectancy:

    Me: 0.80
    Lynn: 0.79

    The results are close, which has to be expected since our estimates have a correlation coefficient of 0.76. Anomalies mostly concern some countries in East Asia, the Black Caribbean and Black Africa.
    , @res

    Yes, one of the three
     
    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.
     
    Right. My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.
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  44. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    It fascinates me to find people who seem to simultaneously believe:
    - Scholastic underachievement in the less developed parts of China is an indication of lower average IQ and not primarily a lack of development.
    - African average IQs are not lower and improved development and schooling will result in equal average IQ with whites.


    If you're referring to me, you are misinterpreting my views.

    I think IQs are lower in China and Africa, and the reason for it is lack of development in both places.

    Scholastic achievement is not just lower in some parts of China, it is lower in the whole country. The PISA scores are those of the select few that are schooled in China's most developed provinces. We have no data for the overwhelming majority: those who dropped out or are schooled in the other provinces.

    but as someone who went to an elite college in the US I have little trouble believing East Asians

    And you think those few thousands of wealthy East-Asians are representative of the 1.5 billion of mostly menial laborers who barely completed high school? And by the way, why are they studying in the US and not the other way around?

    I find your IQ numbers for China very hard to believe. I think any methodology that results in an IQ estimate for Chinese schoolchildren of 84 should be treated with extreme skepticism. One might argue that is only one country, but given that it accounts for about 20% of the world population I would say it is rather important.

    This 2012 paper by Lynn and Cheng gives IQ, education, GDP, and ethnic composition for each of 31 regions in China: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Differences-in-intelligence-across-thirty-one-regions-of-China-and-their-economic-and-demographic-correlates.pdf

    Every single one of those regions has a measured average IQ over 100 (mean 105, SD 1.91).

    Years of education correlates (between regions) with IQ at a not statistically significant r = 0.32
    They created a multivariate regression model (Table 3) for IQ based on years of education, log(GDP), and % Han. The best explanatory variable was % Han. Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    In the discussion text they propose a positive feedback loop between income and IQ. Overall their focus (driven by the data) is on % Han and GDP as the important explanatory variables for IQ.

    China is over 90% Han Chinese overall: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/intro/nationality/

    And you think those few thousands of wealthy East-Asians are representative of the 1.5 billion of mostly menial laborers who barely completed high school? And by the way, why are they studying in the US and not the other way around?

    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population. Perhaps you can tell me how those menial labors have managed to build an advanced industrial society in a few decades? And done it (mostly) themselves rather than importing other groups to do the heavy intellectual lifting like Africa seems to.

    As for why they are studying in the US. Because the US has more good schools and better technology at this time. I am very curious how that will play out over time. I am equally curious about whether the Asians will prove as adept at extending the leading edge as they have been at catch up. I think early evidence indicates they will have success there (e.g. Japanese Nobel prizes), but I don’t know if it will be to the same degree.

    I’m not saying the Chinese (or Japanese or Koreans, I would include all of those in this discussion) are supermen and I have a healthy respect for the ability and accomplishments of people of European descent. Even more so when we are not consuming ourselves battling each other about identity politics and trying to maintain an obviously false Narrative of reality.

    P.S. Some concerns about that paper. I would appreciate feedback from someone better acquainted with the IQ literature.

    First paragraph of section 2. Methods:

    Data on IQs for 31 regions of China were obtained for a sample of 63,636 participants who took the test on a Chinese online IQ testing website (http://tw.iqeq.com.cn/). The data on this website are given in Chinese and hence inaccessible to most readers of this journal. The IQ test was based on the Stanford–Binet test and comprised 60 questions on verbal, quantitative and spatial reasoning. The website does not give any information on the reliability and validity but we would assume that these would be reasonable, as the test was based on the Stanford–Binet test. The time allowed to complete the test was 45 minutes.

    From the final page:

    Second, taking the test was voluntary and the average IQ of those taking the test will likely have been a little higher than the average of the population. This is suggested by the fact that the test was normed on a mean of 100 and SD of 15, but the mean of the sample that took the test was 105. It is likely that those taking the test will have been more selective samples in the regions with lower IQs. The effect of this will likely have been to inflate the IQs in the lower IQ regions and hence reduce the range of the regional IQs. However, the effect of this seems to be quite small. The range of the regional IQs in the present study is from 101 (Qinghai) to 108 (Jiangsu and Shanghai), a 7 point difference.

    So I see no effort to map to European mean 100 SD 15 norms. And the test taking bias is of some concern.

    I wish they had done something like find a sample fluent in both Chinese and English and have them also take something like the Weschler. Or alternatively (and I am curious why they did not do this) include a Raven’s test that is normed on other populations. They did discuss use of an adapted RPM in referenced studies comparing Mongolians and Han Chinese.

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  45. @Afrosapiens
    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation

    Yes, one of the three, the others being life expectancy and GDP per capita. I can compare how my estimates correlate with Lynn's.

    Yet again, it doesn't explain how some countries, mysteriously concentrated in some regions (East-Asia, Subsaharan Africa and the black countries of the Caribbean) have socio-economic outcomes that differ significantly from what we would expect based on Lynn's IQs. Because it's only a problem with those countries, my estimates are otherwise concordant with Lynn's for most other world regions. He over-estimated South-East Asia to a lesser extent possibly to make them look smarter than the South Asians, Hispanics and Middle Easterners that the far right despises more.

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.

    I calculated the correlations between IQ and GDP per Capita (PPP):

    Me: 0.65
    Lynn: 0.60

    And life expectancy:

    Me: 0.80
    Lynn: 0.79

    The results are close, which has to be expected since our estimates have a correlation coefficient of 0.76. Anomalies mostly concern some countries in East Asia, the Black Caribbean and Black Africa.

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  46. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    To expand on this, the Educational Index is one of three components of the HDI (i.e. HDI correlating with one of its components is an even more parsimonoious explanation

    Yes, one of the three, the others being life expectancy and GDP per capita. I can compare how my estimates correlate with Lynn's.

    Yet again, it doesn't explain how some countries, mysteriously concentrated in some regions (East-Asia, Subsaharan Africa and the black countries of the Caribbean) have socio-economic outcomes that differ significantly from what we would expect based on Lynn's IQs. Because it's only a problem with those countries, my estimates are otherwise concordant with Lynn's for most other world regions. He over-estimated South-East Asia to a lesser extent possibly to make them look smarter than the South Asians, Hispanics and Middle Easterners that the far right despises more.

    Should we conclude that the education/IQ relationship holds in the same fashion back through 1980?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.

    Yes, one of the three

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.

    Right. My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

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    I find your IQ numbers for China very hard to believe. I think any methodology that results in an IQ estimate for Chinese schoolchildren of 84 should be treated with extreme skepticism.

    My estimate for Chinese school Children is 90, 84 is the mean between school age population and adult IQ. What should be treated with extreme skepticism is an 105 for a corrupt, low tech middle income economy. But if you can’t believe school age Chinese children have an IQ of 90, you have to ask yourself what is there in their lives that makes their school performance so low. I guess you’ve been told for years that even starving child factory workers in China had level IQs. But it simply doesn’t stand the test of reality.

    This 2012 paper by Lynn and Cheng gives IQ, education, GDP, and ethnic composition for each of 31 regions in China: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Differences-in-intelligence-across-thirty-one-regions-of-China-and-their-economic-and-demographic-correlates.pdf

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it. I’ll go through them later on and tell you my thoughts. In the meantime, I’ll need to find back a meta-Analysis of Chinese children that showed average IQs mostly in the 80s.

    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    Impossible.

    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.

    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

    Perhaps you can tell me how those menial labors have managed to build an advanced industrial society in a few decades? And done it (mostly) themselves rather than importing other groups to do the heavy intellectual lifting like Africa seems to.

    I wouldn’t call China’s industry advanced, it is a low tech country with abyssal productivity, China’s economic miracle has been built on cheap labor, currency war, subsidies, tax attractiveness, real estate bubble and strong political will. They far from did it alone, they heavily borrowed or stole western technology, their factories relied a lot on western expats for their management, their colleges and training centers hired westerners. Yet they’re far from being anywhere close to western living standards. And I don’t know where you heard that they grew in quasi autarky.

    And I don’t know what your comment on Africa is referring to. And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.

    As for why they are studying in the US. Because the US has more good schools and better technology at this time. I am very curious how that will play out over time. I am equally curious about whether the Asians will prove as adept at extending the leading edge as they have been at catch up. I think early evidence indicates they will have success there (e.g. Japanese Nobel prizes), but I don’t know if it will be to the same degree.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms. The reason why China will never be attractive to foreign students is that no matter the quality of schooling there, Chinese language will never spread like English, her cultural influence will never be a thousandth of that of the USA or an European country like France, and that in addition to never being appealing to foreigners, it will never be welcoming of them. And oh, I forgot, it will still remain a dictatorship for a while.

    Data on IQs for 31 regions of China were obtained for a sample of 63,636 participants who took the test on a Chinese online IQ testing

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

    My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.
    , @James Thompson
    It is good to see this discussion about country IQs and country Scholastic Attainment Scores and country Years of Education. Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods, so I will try to post something more on that in due course.

    When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn's data, which is still a work in progress.
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-matrix-2
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/richard-lynn-intelligence-database

    Becker has got a new version I will post up. There are also about 600 further references to add. Heiner Rindermann has published much in this area.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/county-iqs-and-their-consequences

    Usually, IQ and scholastic attainment data are found to be closely related. Scholastic attainment data are usually of greater coverage nowadays, with many exceptions, particularly in Africa, but one can do some calculations on that. Some governments may be tempted to smooth some PISA results.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/africa-and-the-cold-beauty-of-maths

    I will do more on this later, but it seems worth having a conference seminar on it next year.
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  47. @res

    Yes, one of the three
     
    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.
     
    Right. My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

    Previous comment marked as spam

    I find your IQ numbers for China very hard to believe. I think any methodology that results in an IQ estimate for Chinese schoolchildren of 84 should be treated with extreme skepticism.

    My estimate for Chinese school Children is 90, 84 is the mean between school age population and adult IQ. What should be treated with extreme skepticism is an 105 for a corrupt, low tech middle income economy. But if you can’t believe school age Chinese children have an IQ of 90, you have to ask yourself what is there in their lives that makes their school performance so low. I guess you’ve been told for years that even starving child factory workers in China had level IQs. But it simply doesn’t stand the test of reality.

    This 2012 paper by Lynn and Cheng gives IQ, education, GDP, and ethnic composition for each of 31 regions in China: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Differences-in-intelligence-across-thirty-one-regions-of-China-and-their-economic-and-demographic-correlates.pdf

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it. I’ll go through them later on and tell you my thoughts. In the meantime, I’ll need to find back a meta-Analysis of Chinese children that showed average IQs mostly in the 80s.

    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    Impossible.

    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.

    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

    Perhaps you can tell me how those menial labors have managed to build an advanced industrial society in a few decades? And done it (mostly) themselves rather than importing other groups to do the heavy intellectual lifting like Africa seems to.

    I wouldn’t call China’s industry advanced, it is a low tech country with abyssal productivity, China’s economic miracle has been built on cheap labor, currency war, subsidies, tax attractiveness, real estate bubble and strong political will. They far from did it alone, they heavily borrowed or stole western technology, their factories relied a lot on western expats for their management, their colleges and training centers hired westerners. Yet they’re far from being anywhere close to western living standards. And I don’t know where you heard that they grew in quasi autarky.

    And I don’t know what your comment on Africa is referring to. And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.

    As for why they are studying in the US. Because the US has more good schools and better technology at this time. I am very curious how that will play out over time. I am equally curious about whether the Asians will prove as adept at extending the leading edge as they have been at catch up. I think early evidence indicates they will have success there (e.g. Japanese Nobel prizes), but I don’t know if it will be to the same degree.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms. The reason why China will never be attractive to foreign students is that no matter the quality of schooling there, Chinese language will never spread like English, her cultural influence will never be a thousandth of that of the USA or an European country like France, and that in addition to never being appealing to foreigners, it will never be welcoming of them. And oh, I forgot, it will still remain a dictatorship for a while.

    Data on IQs for 31 regions of China were obtained for a sample of 63,636 participants who took the test on a Chinese online IQ testing

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

    My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.

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    Previous comment marked as spam
     
    Now there is a constructive way to engage. At least it is better than an ad hominem attack and is also a little funny, so thanks for that.

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it.
     
    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s). And you know it. I think the big difference here is I don't have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.


    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

     

    Impossible.
     
    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don't even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.


    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.
     
    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

     

    It is indeed anecdotal. One of the things I look for is data matching my observed reality (how would you explain my observed reality?). As for knowing their scores, in some cases I did (undergrads talk about their SAT scores). For the rest I know my own test scores and the average for the group and can gauge their performance (test score results, grades. overall impression, etc.) relative to me and the group.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms.
     
    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureates
    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then... That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    Here is an interesting paper looking at IQ by regions in Japan: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.
     
    That was a fun juxtaposition. Quoted exactly as it appeared.

    And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.
     
    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China's start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

     

    One question I see is how the causation works. I envision these causal chains:
    EI -> GDP -> EI
    IQ -> GDP -> IQ
    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong, but that question dramatically effects the value of a variable for prediction. Postdiction is still useful, but IMHO much less so.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI - IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US? The closest thing I have been able to find is SAT scores by race and parental education: http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/black-suits-gowns-skin-sat-scores-by.html

    I think most of what this argument comes down to is us having different priors (we can argue about how well each is supported by evidence, but are unlikely to resolve that here ; ) about whether there are significant differences between the average potential IQs of the races given the same environments.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.
     
    Good point. Even without the increased British IQ. There are still some crazy examples though. For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    P.S. Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.
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  48. @res

    Yes, one of the three
     
    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    Possibly, IQ has always been used as a predictor in education, that was the intent of its creator.
     
    Right. My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

    It is good to see this discussion about country IQs and country Scholastic Attainment Scores and country Years of Education. Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods, so I will try to post something more on that in due course.

    When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn’s data, which is still a work in progress.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-matrix-2

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/richard-lynn-intelligence-database

    Becker has got a new version I will post up. There are also about 600 further references to add. Heiner Rindermann has published much in this area.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/county-iqs-and-their-consequences

    Usually, IQ and scholastic attainment data are found to be closely related. Scholastic attainment data are usually of greater coverage nowadays, with many exceptions, particularly in Africa, but one can do some calculations on that. Some governments may be tempted to smooth some PISA results.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/africa-and-the-cold-beauty-of-maths

    I will do more on this later, but it seems worth having a conference seminar on it next year.

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    I look forward to seeing those posts! And the conference seminar sounds like a great idea. Did you have any on that topic in past ISIR conferences?

    Afrosapiens provided a link (in comment 22) to David Becker's work which looked very helpful. The top level of Becker's project is here: https://www.researchgate.net/project/Worlds-IQ
    The project is active and he appears to be making updates roughly monthly. A while back I was looking for Raven's raw score to IQ information without success--his August 4th update covers this.

    This is the same work as your May "Matrix" Becker post, right?

    It would be interesting to see that PISA data correlated (even better, a scatterplot) with Afrosapiens' educational data and associated IQ estimates.

    I think the Heiner Rindermann quote in one of your earlier posts is highly relevant to this conversation: http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa/#p_1_12:1-2 (not sure if it matters, but Ron's cool direct linking capability does not appear to work across blockquotes)

    School attendance rate of 15 year old youth (usually, but not always, given in PISA reports, usually somewhere at the end).
    Do not confuse with participation rate in PISA study.

    Per each percent point not attending school subtract 1.5 SASQ points (equivalent 0.225 IQ points). That is a rule of thumb.

    I have made a smaller correction for countries at low ability levels – in such countries pupils in school do not learn much.
     
    , @Afrosapiens

    Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods
     
    It's irony, right?

    Shouldn't we have looked at methods before writing books like "The Global Bell Curve" or "IQ and the Wealth of Nations"?

    "When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn’s data, which is still a work in progress."

    It's vain, and it's not going in the right direction. The question of what makes a good sample, and exactly what the results are supposed to represent (who, where and when) remains un-addressed. Does any of the IQ researchers know a demographer to check the standards of their procedures?
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  49. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Previous comment marked as spam


    I find your IQ numbers for China very hard to believe. I think any methodology that results in an IQ estimate for Chinese schoolchildren of 84 should be treated with extreme skepticism.

    My estimate for Chinese school Children is 90, 84 is the mean between school age population and adult IQ. What should be treated with extreme skepticism is an 105 for a corrupt, low tech middle income economy. But if you can’t believe school age Chinese children have an IQ of 90, you have to ask yourself what is there in their lives that makes their school performance so low. I guess you’ve been told for years that even starving child factory workers in China had level IQs. But it simply doesn’t stand the test of reality.

    This 2012 paper by Lynn and Cheng gives IQ, education, GDP, and ethnic composition for each of 31 regions in China: http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Differences-in-intelligence-across-thirty-one-regions-of-China-and-their-economic-and-demographic-correlates.pdf

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it. I’ll go through them later on and tell you my thoughts. In the meantime, I’ll need to find back a meta-Analysis of Chinese children that showed average IQs mostly in the 80s.

    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    Impossible.

    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.

    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

    Perhaps you can tell me how those menial labors have managed to build an advanced industrial society in a few decades? And done it (mostly) themselves rather than importing other groups to do the heavy intellectual lifting like Africa seems to.

    I wouldn’t call China’s industry advanced, it is a low tech country with abyssal productivity, China’s economic miracle has been built on cheap labor, currency war, subsidies, tax attractiveness, real estate bubble and strong political will. They far from did it alone, they heavily borrowed or stole western technology, their factories relied a lot on western expats for their management, their colleges and training centers hired westerners. Yet they’re far from being anywhere close to western living standards. And I don’t know where you heard that they grew in quasi autarky.

    And I don’t know what your comment on Africa is referring to. And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.

    As for why they are studying in the US. Because the US has more good schools and better technology at this time. I am very curious how that will play out over time. I am equally curious about whether the Asians will prove as adept at extending the leading edge as they have been at catch up. I think early evidence indicates they will have success there (e.g. Japanese Nobel prizes), but I don’t know if it will be to the same degree.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms. The reason why China will never be attractive to foreign students is that no matter the quality of schooling there, Chinese language will never spread like English, her cultural influence will never be a thousandth of that of the USA or an European country like France, and that in addition to never being appealing to foreigners, it will never be welcoming of them. And oh, I forgot, it will still remain a dictatorship for a while.

    Data on IQs for 31 regions of China were obtained for a sample of 63,636 participants who took the test on a Chinese online IQ testing

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

    My point was you might try estimating IQ from historical EI scores. Some have increased 2x or more. I am highly skeptical that IQ in those countries has doubled over that time.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.

    Previous comment marked as spam

    Now there is a constructive way to engage. At least it is better than an ad hominem attack and is also a little funny, so thanks for that.

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it.

    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s). And you know it. I think the big difference here is I don’t have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.

    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

    Impossible.

    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don’t even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.

    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.

    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

    It is indeed anecdotal. One of the things I look for is data matching my observed reality (how would you explain my observed reality?). As for knowing their scores, in some cases I did (undergrads talk about their SAT scores). For the rest I know my own test scores and the average for the group and can gauge their performance (test score results, grades. overall impression, etc.) relative to me and the group.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms.

    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureates
    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then… That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    Here is an interesting paper looking at IQ by regions in Japan: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.

    That was a fun juxtaposition. Quoted exactly as it appeared.

    And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.

    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China’s start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

    One question I see is how the causation works. I envision these causal chains:
    EI -> GDP -> EI
    IQ -> GDP -> IQ
    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong, but that question dramatically effects the value of a variable for prediction. Postdiction is still useful, but IMHO much less so.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI – IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US? The closest thing I have been able to find is SAT scores by race and parental education: http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/black-suits-gowns-skin-sat-scores-by.html

    I think most of what this argument comes down to is us having different priors (we can argue about how well each is supported by evidence, but are unlikely to resolve that here ; ) about whether there are significant differences between the average potential IQs of the races given the same environments.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.

    Good point. Even without the increased British IQ. There are still some crazy examples though. For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    P.S. Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.

    Read More
    • Replies: @dearieme
    "Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s": come now, I bought an excellent Japanese motorcycle in the 60s. Which African country could produce such a thing even now?
    , @Afrosapiens
    Sorry res, long post, no time. I guess most of your points are directly or indirectly addressed in my update.

    My estimates have a very good predictive power and reliability, the rest is peripheral to the central question which is: can I estimate cognitive ability at the national level by educational attainment data?

    The answer is yes.
    , @Afrosapiens

    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s).
     
    Sure, and in it's barely me: it's the UN's Human Development Program data, the Norwegian government and excel spreadsheets. My sole contribution was imagining that we could convert education variables into IQ scores. That's a daring idea I know, I surely am the first person of this kind to ever try to predict IQ this way.

    I think the big difference here is I don’t have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.
     
    Yes, I'm making it such a personal issue that Africans now top my ranking and evil racist Europeans are at the bottom. And for my new number to make sense, I simply modified Excel's functions so that they'd tell my truth.

    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don’t even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.
     
    Who needs this headache? Online IQ test = trash, period.

    When sampling is rigorous enough and the testing context was professional, you can ask yourself whether the results were corrected for the Flynn effect, what was the detailed demographic profile of the sample, what were the subjects's attitudes to the test... Even if you answer all these questions properly, you'll want to tell yourself that a sample only represents a sample and that compiling samples does not allow to extrapolate to a whole population without a thorough demographic analysis.

    And on the internet, keep in mind that people show you what they want to show you, and since you know the answers before asking the questions, all the research you do is more or less confirmation bias.

    It is indeed anecdotal.
     
    So retract that, I don't want to know anything about your wonderful life.

    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive:
     
    Over the time period that Japan was a very populated industrial country: about 100 years (considering it did not reach industrial maturity in the 1860s).

    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then… That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.
     
    Yes, and? You're trying to tell me that what is true for Japan can't be true for Nigeria or Indonesia? I'm under the impression that you are intentionally wasting my time. Am I right?

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

     

    The major point is that you're making no point at all because this is simply not correct. Not even close.

    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.
     
    Hahahaha! Significant? a 0.42 correlation? You know what you told me about correlations above. Or I'll need to unlearn everything I know and live in a world in which a 0.42 correlation makes more sense than a 0.89 one.

    Anyway, north-south Gradient? Like northern whites > southern whites in the US? What about Southern Britain, southern Germany, southern Ghana, southern Sweden, southern Poland being more developed and likely smarter than their northern counterparts? Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangzhou being the powerhouses of China, instead of Harbin and Beijing? And how do you explain East-West gradients?

    Climate does play a role in the development of regions. For some reasons, human societies do better in temperate climates, than colder or warmer ones, disease. History also plays a role, trade routes, centers of political power, areas of endemic disease, complicated transportation and other factors have different chances of accumulating investment and resources over the long term. And those regions that get a head start in development are those that build better education systems, attract and retain the most skilled workforce. You don't need an evolutionary explanation to understand why West Virginia would most likely score much lower on representative IQ studies than the North of Virginia.

    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China’s start was a bit delayed due to politics).
     
    Yes, I'd say a 500 years delay approximately. Due to politics. Politics can cripple economy in China but not in Africa. Politics cripples economy, but genetics makes growth. I get you, that's very insightful...

    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong
     
    You're likely wrong.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI – IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US?
     
    It is. What we won't agree on is which one causes the other.

    For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?
     
    I don't know, the EI is not the measure from which I derive my estimates of child IQ. They're based on expected years of education in country X relative to Britain. And I don't even know how it matters. They were under soviet occupation by the way, it was messy.


    Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.
     
    I forgive you, and I forgive your inability to connect the dots.
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  50. res says:
    @James Thompson
    It is good to see this discussion about country IQs and country Scholastic Attainment Scores and country Years of Education. Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods, so I will try to post something more on that in due course.

    When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn's data, which is still a work in progress.
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-matrix-2
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/richard-lynn-intelligence-database

    Becker has got a new version I will post up. There are also about 600 further references to add. Heiner Rindermann has published much in this area.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/county-iqs-and-their-consequences

    Usually, IQ and scholastic attainment data are found to be closely related. Scholastic attainment data are usually of greater coverage nowadays, with many exceptions, particularly in Africa, but one can do some calculations on that. Some governments may be tempted to smooth some PISA results.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/africa-and-the-cold-beauty-of-maths

    I will do more on this later, but it seems worth having a conference seminar on it next year.

    I look forward to seeing those posts! And the conference seminar sounds like a great idea. Did you have any on that topic in past ISIR conferences?

    Afrosapiens provided a link (in comment 22) to David Becker’s work which looked very helpful. The top level of Becker’s project is here: https://www.researchgate.net/project/Worlds-IQ
    The project is active and he appears to be making updates roughly monthly. A while back I was looking for Raven’s raw score to IQ information without success–his August 4th update covers this.

    This is the same work as your May “Matrix” Becker post, right?

    It would be interesting to see that PISA data correlated (even better, a scatterplot) with Afrosapiens’ educational data and associated IQ estimates.

    I think the Heiner Rindermann quote in one of your earlier posts is highly relevant to this conversation: http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa/#p_1_12:1-2 (not sure if it matters, but Ron’s cool direct linking capability does not appear to work across blockquotes)

    School attendance rate of 15 year old youth (usually, but not always, given in PISA reports, usually somewhere at the end).
    Do not confuse with participation rate in PISA study.

    Per each percent point not attending school subtract 1.5 SASQ points (equivalent 0.225 IQ points). That is a rule of thumb.

    I have made a smaller correction for countries at low ability levels – in such countries pupils in school do not learn much.

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  51. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Afrosapiens
    What’s education data? Is it actual IQ tests? Standard school tests? Something like the American profiency tests?

    It is the number of years that students are expected to spend in school, and the level that adults have attained. I don't doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country. But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.

    The number of kids who sat in classrooms long enough to finish secondary school?

    It doesn't exist in most countries where education isn't free, where youth are urged to work early and where families can't afford to send their children to school to slack off.

    Now it's up to you to believe a Chinese middle school dropout has the same or superior professional skills and cognitive abilities as an American college graduate. But that doesn't exist in the real world.

    I don’t doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country.

    And yet you’ve assigned 3.7 IQ points to every year of “additional education” globally and used that brick to build your case. Why? Have you tried attending a 7th grade class in Norway, Ghana, Japan or Burkina Faso. How about a gender studies class vs Physics? Are special schools admitting 70 IQ kids and “curing” them?

    But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.

    If you can’t figure out that higher ability leads to better results no one can help you. If you can’t see the difference between a Swiss and a Somalian High-school, again, no one can help you.

    Read More
    • Agree: res
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    And yet you’ve assigned 3.7 IQ points to every year of “additional education” globally and used that brick to build your case. Why?

    I converted Years of education to IQ scores based on the relationship evidenced by Norwegian cohorts.
    http://www.statistics.no/a/filearchive/Schooling.pdf

    Statistics always have some degree of measurement error. But the very high and reliable correlations with socio-economic variables I found indicate a very low error margin.

    Have you tried attending a 7th grade class in Norway, Ghana, Japan or Burkina Faso. How about a gender studies class vs Physics? Are special schools admitting 70 IQ kids and “curing” them?

    Lol! Get out of here, you're part of the reason why most of the world thinks Americans are retarded.

    If you can’t figure out that higher ability leads to better results no one can help you. If you can’t see the difference between a Swiss and a Somalian High-school, again, no one can help you.

    I don't think I'm the one who needs help here.
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  52. Any recent studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana, or Liberia, or 10-15 years ago? I ask as these countries have rather low recent murder rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Any recent studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana, or Liberia, or 10-15 years ago? I ask as these countries have rather low recent murder rates.

    Demographic analysis is a professional science with complex procedures, no studies coming from small teams of researchers sampling a couple of hundreds or thousands individuals here and there can meet the standards of this field and come up with satisfying results. Demographic analysis is basically a monopoly of governments, inter-national organizations, big companies and polling agencies. They rely on thousands of pollsters and statisticians which are able to sample large numbers of individuals and do all the necessary socio-demographic adjustments.

    Anyway, there is no relationship between IQ and homicide at the international level.
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  53. dearieme says:
    @res

    Previous comment marked as spam
     
    Now there is a constructive way to engage. At least it is better than an ad hominem attack and is also a little funny, so thanks for that.

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it.
     
    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s). And you know it. I think the big difference here is I don't have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.


    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

     

    Impossible.
     
    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don't even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.


    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.
     
    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

     

    It is indeed anecdotal. One of the things I look for is data matching my observed reality (how would you explain my observed reality?). As for knowing their scores, in some cases I did (undergrads talk about their SAT scores). For the rest I know my own test scores and the average for the group and can gauge their performance (test score results, grades. overall impression, etc.) relative to me and the group.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms.
     
    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureates
    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then... That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    Here is an interesting paper looking at IQ by regions in Japan: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.
     
    That was a fun juxtaposition. Quoted exactly as it appeared.

    And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.
     
    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China's start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

     

    One question I see is how the causation works. I envision these causal chains:
    EI -> GDP -> EI
    IQ -> GDP -> IQ
    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong, but that question dramatically effects the value of a variable for prediction. Postdiction is still useful, but IMHO much less so.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI - IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US? The closest thing I have been able to find is SAT scores by race and parental education: http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/black-suits-gowns-skin-sat-scores-by.html

    I think most of what this argument comes down to is us having different priors (we can argue about how well each is supported by evidence, but are unlikely to resolve that here ; ) about whether there are significant differences between the average potential IQs of the races given the same environments.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.
     
    Good point. Even without the increased British IQ. There are still some crazy examples though. For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    P.S. Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.

    “Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s”: come now, I bought an excellent Japanese motorcycle in the 60s. Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Nigeria produces cars and motorcycles for the whole West-African market, Ghana has a smaller automotive industry too. Ethiopia recently started car-assembly, South Africa likely produced cars before any Asian country.
    , @res
    That's a fair criticism. Korea is probably the best comparison. Compare Korea to Nigeria and Congo from 1960 to 1975 in this plot. Then compare 1975 to 2015. Easy to add more countries to see other comparisons if you like.

    Per capita GDP comparison

    Perhaps 1950 Japan?
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  54. I updated my post with a statistical analysis of my data and Lynn’s.

    Update 09/07/2017 – Detailed comparison with Lynn’s Data

    To test the predictive power of my estimates in comparison to Lynn’s, I decided to focus only on the world’s 20 most populous countries. The reason for that is that these countries are home to 70% of the world’s population and the law of large numbers says that they are likely more representative of whatever they could represent. On the other hand, the 100+ other countries are home to only 30% of humanity. They are a source of statistical noise due to extreme outlying values and differences in regional political fragmentation that would hide or weaken general trends better evidenced by considering large countries.

    Data:

    Correlations and averages:

    Noticing an abnormal 22 points gap between Sub-Saharan African IQs and the world average on Lynn data, Suspecting that extremely low values would flaw the correlations, I tested if my estimates and Lynn’s would retain the same predictive power with the African IQs excluded. My assumption was that a strong causal relationship would leave the correlations unchanged no matter which countries were included whereas any change in predictive power resulting from excluding some countries would cast doubt on the accuracy of the reported data.

    IQ-HDI correlation:

    Similarly to my previous calculation including all the countries for which data were available, I found a 0.96 correlation between my estimates and HDI, Lynn’s estimates correlation with HDI was higher (+0.06) than with the worldwide data, but still largely inferior to mine. Removing African countries, the predictive power of my estimates remained the same (+02) whereas Lynn’s significantly decreased (-0.13) and left a predictive gap of 0.24 favoring my estimates. However, given the fact that my estimates are based on variables that are included in the calculation of HDI, such a high predictive power as to be met with caution.

    IQ-GDP per capita correlation:

    My previous calculation from the worldwide data yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.65 between my IQ estimates and GDP/capita and 0.60 for Lynn’s. Among the 20 most populated countries, the correlation rose by 0.24 points to 0.89 with my estimates and by 0.12 points to 0.72 with Lynn’s. Excluding Sub-Saharan African countries did not affect the predictive power of my estimates (+0.01) and further weakened Lynn’s by 0.04 points, resulting in a 0.22 gap in predictive power favoring my estimates again. This correlation of 0.89 between my IQ estimates and GDP per capita within the world’s population top 20 countries likely is the highest correlate of IQ ever reported in the psychological science and gives strong support to the relationship between schooling, economic development and cognitive ability.

    IQ-Life expectancy correlation:

    Compared with the worldwide database, the correlation between my IQ estimates and life expectancy was down 0.04 points within the world’s top 20 to 0.76, Lynn’s went up by o.o5 points to 0.84. However, removing Sub-Saharan Africa left the predictive power of my estimates unchanged whereas Lynn’s fell by 0.13 points to 0.71. My estimates again predicted life expectancy better by a small 0.4 points this time.

    IQ-Homicide correlation:

    Not estimated previously, my data finds an non-existent relationship between IQ and homicide rate (-0.01) and excluding Sub-Saharan Africa confirmed a null relationship between homicide rates and IQ in the rest of the world. Lynn’s estimates showed a low negative correlation between IQ and homicide (-0.35) and the exclusion of African countries further lowered the correlation (-0.25). Lynn’s estimates had a better predictive power which still remained in the range of low statistical significance.

    IQ-Fertility correlation:

    Adding a new variable, I found a negative correlation of -0.69 between my IQ estimates and Fertility, the correlation remained the same (-0.68) with the African countries excluded. The correlation between Lynn’s IQs and fertility was stronger (-0.84), but removing African data decreased it by 0.18 points to 0.66. My estimates ended up with a slightly stronger predictive power (+0.02).

    General patterns:

    In addition to having a stronger and globally consistent predictive power, my estimates reveal how Richard Lynn manipulates the data to fit desired racial patterns.

    As expected from the 0.96 correlation between my IQ data and HDI, the ranking of countries by cognitive ability shows a perfect gradient from high to low development status. Moreover, the highest gap between two following countries is the 6 points separating Russia and Iran, showing a marked difference between the developed and the developing world.

    Ranking countries by Lynn-estimated IQs results in a whole other pattern in which a country’s dominant ancestry seems to be the only variable that matters. East-Asians are on top, followed by Western Europeans, then Eastern-Europeans, South-East Asians, fair skinned Middle-Easterners (Turkey and Iran) and Latin Americans, Austronesians (Indonesia and the Philippines), South Asians and Arabs, and finally Sub-Saharan Africans far below, with a huge 10 points gap (the largest between two following countries in his dataset) separating Bangladesh from Nigeria.

    The manipulation is quite apparent, Lynn largely over-estimated China (+22), Japan (+7) to make East-Asians cluster on top, thus protecting himself from accusations of white supremacism and giving support to the inter-cultural validity of the IQs that he cherry-picked. The western European and Russian data remained mostly unchanged. Vietnam (+11) and Thailand (+5) were given a bonus for their genetic proximity to North-East Asia that is supposed to make them score in the low 90s despite their lack of development. Little changes were brought to the scores of the Latin American, Middle-Eastern and Austronesian countries usually scoring in the mid-80s. Major fraud (+14 in Pakistan, +7 in Bangladesh) was done to lift up South-Asian countries out of the 70s range and excluding Sub-Saharan Africa as the only region scoring 70 or below and downgrading Nigeria (-4) and the DR. Congo (-7) in the process.

    By pointing this out, I’m warning honest researchers and laymen about the dangers of relying on data resulting from undisclosed, unsystematic and un-replicable methodology. And although my estimates do not result from any actual IQ measurement beyond the relationship between IQ and schooling evidenced in Norwegian cohorts, my method uses a single, universal conversion factor applied to representative official data collected by professional demographers whereas Lynn’s and the likes’ cherry-picking of samples is only the hobby of a dozen scholars and pseudo-scholars. This is how I found out strong, consistent and meaningful correlations between IQ and various development variables.

    Although they are likely more representative of the worldwide distribution of cognitive ability, my estimates still provide evidence that a large part (the largest part, actually) of the world’s population scoring below one standard deviation on Western-normed IQ tests, which is the case for 11 of the world’s 20 most populated countries. Although this may sound alarming, with Pakistan and Ethiopia scoring in the range of mental disability (70 and 66 respectively), I think this effect comes from using Western populations as a reference for standardization.

    In fact, another picture emerges when we compare countries with the the world’s average, replacing the eurocentric British Greenwich IQ of 100 by an universal IQ of 84 and thus giving a more accurate idea of what is normal cognitive ability by the standards of humanity. In this sample, China, the Philippines and Indonesia are representative of the top of the bell curve whereas Ethiopia, the United States and Germany are the only outliers left with respective Universal IQs of 81.6, 115.6 and 116.6. For this reason, I recommend the use of Chinese or South-East Asian normalization samples in international IQ comparisons.

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  55. @dearieme
    "Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s": come now, I bought an excellent Japanese motorcycle in the 60s. Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Nigeria produces cars and motorcycles for the whole West-African market, Ghana has a smaller automotive industry too. Ethiopia recently started car-assembly, South Africa likely produced cars before any Asian country.

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    • Replies: @res
    How much of that Nigerian auto industry is more than just assembly? Comparing that to Japan's ground up motorcycle (later automotive) industry is a bit sad.

    Here is one made in Nigeria (70% of parts locally sourced) example: http://venturesafrica.com/innoson-unveils-first-made-in-nigeria-cars/
    I was not able to find production numbers for Innoson.

    Some commentary on the Nigerian auto industry: http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/695039253/nigerias-automotive-industry-is-struggling-for-traction/2017-01-24

    And to help the local auto "manufacturers" they banned auto imports: http://allafrica.com/stories/201612120533.html

    The dealers also noted that the decision was also taken in the interest of a small segment of the auto industry claim to be auto manufacturers but in fact are not manufacturing any cars in Nigeria.

    "Only Innoson is doing some level of automobile manufacturing in Nigeria. All the others are at best just fixing lights, bumpers and trunk and they call it manufacturing.

    "Ask any of these so called auto manufacturers to show you their assembly lines and you will see that they are adding zero value. For one Korean auto dealer if you investigate them, you will see that their vehichle service area is much larger than their so called auto assembly plant.
     
    , @dearieme
    Yeah, "produces" in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else's on the market at the time.
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  56. @Anonymous

    I don’t doubt that years of education do not have the same intellectual value in all countries or even in different areas of the same country.
     
    And yet you've assigned 3.7 IQ points to every year of "additional education" globally and used that brick to build your case. Why? Have you tried attending a 7th grade class in Norway, Ghana, Japan or Burkina Faso. How about a gender studies class vs Physics? Are special schools admitting 70 IQ kids and "curing" them?

    But there is a relationship between completed years of education and IQ no matter which one causes the other.
     
    If you can't figure out that higher ability leads to better results no one can help you. If you can't see the difference between a Swiss and a Somalian High-school, again, no one can help you.

    And yet you’ve assigned 3.7 IQ points to every year of “additional education” globally and used that brick to build your case. Why?

    I converted Years of education to IQ scores based on the relationship evidenced by Norwegian cohorts.

    http://www.statistics.no/a/filearchive/Schooling.pdf

    Statistics always have some degree of measurement error. But the very high and reliable correlations with socio-economic variables I found indicate a very low error margin.

    Have you tried attending a 7th grade class in Norway, Ghana, Japan or Burkina Faso. How about a gender studies class vs Physics? Are special schools admitting 70 IQ kids and “curing” them?

    Lol! Get out of here, you’re part of the reason why most of the world thinks Americans are retarded.

    If you can’t figure out that higher ability leads to better results no one can help you. If you can’t see the difference between a Swiss and a Somalian High-school, again, no one can help you.

    I don’t think I’m the one who needs help here.

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  57. @Johan Meyer
    @Afrosapiens
    Any recent studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana, or Liberia, or 10-15 years ago? I ask as these countries have rather low recent murder rates.

    Any recent studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana, or Liberia, or 10-15 years ago? I ask as these countries have rather low recent murder rates.

    Demographic analysis is a professional science with complex procedures, no studies coming from small teams of researchers sampling a couple of hundreds or thousands individuals here and there can meet the standards of this field and come up with satisfying results. Demographic analysis is basically a monopoly of governments, inter-national organizations, big companies and polling agencies. They rely on thousands of pollsters and statisticians which are able to sample large numbers of individuals and do all the necessary socio-demographic adjustments.

    Anyway, there is no relationship between IQ and homicide at the international level.

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    • Replies: @Johan Meyer
    I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone. They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium. I first quit school after grade eight, as an example---arm blanke. You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called "outcomes based education," despite lacking calculus---we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead. Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine.

    A simple test is available. Does schooling lead or lag economic growth? A good test case would be Haiti. Since the 2004 US/Canadian/French pedo-terrorist coup, primary school enrollment has been reduced from about 60% to about 39%, or if you prefer, the difference between 2006 and 2003 is 3 years, not 24 years, no matter how badly Al Qaeda NATO may wish otherwise. Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti's IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not.

    What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning. Civil wars undermine fuel consumption, hence Sierra Leone's current 25--18 years later murder rate, as African countries used up to 8 times more lead per litre petrol than Europe. Et cetera. Pretending that schooling could solve these problems is utterly unethical, as it is a means of avoiding addressing the very real problems besetting poor countries.
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  58. @res

    Previous comment marked as spam
     
    Now there is a constructive way to engage. At least it is better than an ad hominem attack and is also a little funny, so thanks for that.

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it.
     
    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s). And you know it. I think the big difference here is I don't have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.


    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

     

    Impossible.
     
    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don't even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.


    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.
     
    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

     

    It is indeed anecdotal. One of the things I look for is data matching my observed reality (how would you explain my observed reality?). As for knowing their scores, in some cases I did (undergrads talk about their SAT scores). For the rest I know my own test scores and the average for the group and can gauge their performance (test score results, grades. overall impression, etc.) relative to me and the group.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms.
     
    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureates
    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then... That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    Here is an interesting paper looking at IQ by regions in Japan: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.
     
    That was a fun juxtaposition. Quoted exactly as it appeared.

    And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.
     
    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China's start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

     

    One question I see is how the causation works. I envision these causal chains:
    EI -> GDP -> EI
    IQ -> GDP -> IQ
    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong, but that question dramatically effects the value of a variable for prediction. Postdiction is still useful, but IMHO much less so.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI - IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US? The closest thing I have been able to find is SAT scores by race and parental education: http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/black-suits-gowns-skin-sat-scores-by.html

    I think most of what this argument comes down to is us having different priors (we can argue about how well each is supported by evidence, but are unlikely to resolve that here ; ) about whether there are significant differences between the average potential IQs of the races given the same environments.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.
     
    Good point. Even without the increased British IQ. There are still some crazy examples though. For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    P.S. Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.

    Sorry res, long post, no time. I guess most of your points are directly or indirectly addressed in my update.

    My estimates have a very good predictive power and reliability, the rest is peripheral to the central question which is: can I estimate cognitive ability at the national level by educational attainment data?

    The answer is yes.

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    • Replies: @res
    There is a difference between correlation and prediction. Rain and wet sidewalks correlate, but wet sidewalks do not make a good predictor for rain.

    If you want to claim prediction you really need to show your measure discriminating between future outcomes. For example (see per capita GDP plot) if you had IQ data for Korea and Nigeria in 1960 and said because of that you expect Korean GDP to grow faster--that would have been prediction. Same sort of thing for China and Nigeria in 1985.

    can I estimate cognitive ability at the national level by educational attainment data?
     
    You really need to look at the behavior of your metric over time to judge this. A single snapshot is not sufficient.

    As far as this:

    Sorry res, long post, no time. I guess most of your points are directly or indirectly addressed in my update.
     
    Whatever. You and I both know that is not true.
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  59. @James Thompson
    It is good to see this discussion about country IQs and country Scholastic Attainment Scores and country Years of Education. Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods, so I will try to post something more on that in due course.

    When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn's data, which is still a work in progress.
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/the-matrix-2
    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/richard-lynn-intelligence-database

    Becker has got a new version I will post up. There are also about 600 further references to add. Heiner Rindermann has published much in this area.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/county-iqs-and-their-consequences

    Usually, IQ and scholastic attainment data are found to be closely related. Scholastic attainment data are usually of greater coverage nowadays, with many exceptions, particularly in Africa, but one can do some calculations on that. Some governments may be tempted to smooth some PISA results.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/faking-good-on-pisa

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/africa-and-the-cold-beauty-of-maths

    I will do more on this later, but it seems worth having a conference seminar on it next year.

    Before drawing maps I think we need to look at methods

    It’s irony, right?

    Shouldn’t we have looked at methods before writing books like “The Global Bell Curve” or “IQ and the Wealth of Nations”?

    “When talking about David Becker I was referring to his re-working of Lynn’s data, which is still a work in progress.”

    It’s vain, and it’s not going in the right direction. The question of what makes a good sample, and exactly what the results are supposed to represent (who, where and when) remains un-addressed. Does any of the IQ researchers know a demographer to check the standards of their procedures?

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  60. res says:
    @dearieme
    "Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s": come now, I bought an excellent Japanese motorcycle in the 60s. Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    That’s a fair criticism. Korea is probably the best comparison. Compare Korea to Nigeria and Congo from 1960 to 1975 in this plot. Then compare 1975 to 2015. Easy to add more countries to see other comparisons if you like.

    Per capita GDP comparison

    Perhaps 1950 Japan?

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    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Japan started industrializing in the 1860s, before Spain or Russia.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan
    , @Afrosapiens
    Why would you compare Nigeria and South Korea?

    Korea: a multiple-centuries old country with a culture and a strong collective awareness, heavily subsidized by the US in the context of the cold war, benefiting from a substantial industrial basis and infrastructure (by non-western 20th century standards) since the early 20th century, free of tropical endemic disease, that has historacally had a strong population density due to highly fertile soils fit for rice production, and so on.

    Nigeria: a post colonial patchwork of 250 ethnic groups, the largest barely making more than 20% of the total population. No sense of collective destiny whatsoever between those groups, only rivalry, civil war, coups. No established administrative culture with resource curse fueling corruption on top of that. Heavily burdened by every possible endemic disease, with poor soils (semi-arid to oxidated equatorial soils), and much more. Colonization? The British have barely built (I mean, used forced labor to build) 1000km of railways, a couple of schools to train a tiny indigenous intermediate class and a few factories

    Yet Nigeria is a diversified middle-income economy (oil only accounts for 11% of GDP), producing a large variety of basic industrial goods, despite minimal infrastructure, low foreign investment, high borrowing costs, currency shocks, corruption, lack of central planning, terrorism, overwhelming population growth... You seem to admire China, well, check the HDI figures above and notice that China is only halfway between Nigeria and the US, nothing more. Compare with Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria is just the same despite, I believe, a much lower historical starting point.

    It's appalling how some people here have trouble with making sense of differences and resort to quasi-religious racial theories. Your outlook seems very nearsighted or colorstruck, and you clearly thorough knowledge of current and past socio-economic dynamics.
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  61. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Nigeria produces cars and motorcycles for the whole West-African market, Ghana has a smaller automotive industry too. Ethiopia recently started car-assembly, South Africa likely produced cars before any Asian country.

    How much of that Nigerian auto industry is more than just assembly? Comparing that to Japan’s ground up motorcycle (later automotive) industry is a bit sad.

    Here is one made in Nigeria (70% of parts locally sourced) example: http://venturesafrica.com/innoson-unveils-first-made-in-nigeria-cars/
    I was not able to find production numbers for Innoson.

    Some commentary on the Nigerian auto industry: http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/695039253/nigerias-automotive-industry-is-struggling-for-traction/2017-01-24

    And to help the local auto “manufacturers” they banned auto imports: http://allafrica.com/stories/201612120533.html

    The dealers also noted that the decision was also taken in the interest of a small segment of the auto industry claim to be auto manufacturers but in fact are not manufacturing any cars in Nigeria.

    “Only Innoson is doing some level of automobile manufacturing in Nigeria. All the others are at best just fixing lights, bumpers and trunk and they call it manufacturing.

    “Ask any of these so called auto manufacturers to show you their assembly lines and you will see that they are adding zero value. For one Korean auto dealer if you investigate them, you will see that their vehichle service area is much larger than their so called auto assembly plant.

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  62. @res
    That's a fair criticism. Korea is probably the best comparison. Compare Korea to Nigeria and Congo from 1960 to 1975 in this plot. Then compare 1975 to 2015. Easy to add more countries to see other comparisons if you like.

    Per capita GDP comparison

    Perhaps 1950 Japan?

    Japan started industrializing in the 1860s, before Spain or Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan

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    • Replies: @res
    And Japan was industrialized enough to win a war against Russia in 1904-1905 and fight WWII. But after WWII it had some rebuilding to do. From your link:

    The early post-war years were devoted to rebuilding lost industrial capacity: major investments were made in electric power, coal, steel, and chemicals. By the mid-1950s, production matched prewar levels.
    ...
    Between 1953 and 1965, GDP expanded by more than 9% per year, manufacturing and mining by 13%, construction by 11%, and infrastructure by 12%. In 1965 these sectors employed more than 41% of the labor force, whereas only 26% remained in agriculture.
    ...
    The mid-1960s ushered in a new type of industrial development as the economy opened itself to international competition in some industries and developed heavy and chemical manufactures. Whereas textiles and light manufactures maintained their profitability internationally, other products, such as automobiles, electronics, ships, and machine tools assumed new importance. The value added to manufacturing and mining grew at the rate of 17% per year between 1965 and 1970.

     

    Even in 1950 Japan was 3x Nigeria's per capita GDP: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP-per-capita-in-1950

    As I said in the comment you responded to: Korea is a better comparison.
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  63. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Sorry res, long post, no time. I guess most of your points are directly or indirectly addressed in my update.

    My estimates have a very good predictive power and reliability, the rest is peripheral to the central question which is: can I estimate cognitive ability at the national level by educational attainment data?

    The answer is yes.

    There is a difference between correlation and prediction. Rain and wet sidewalks correlate, but wet sidewalks do not make a good predictor for rain.

    If you want to claim prediction you really need to show your measure discriminating between future outcomes. For example (see per capita GDP plot) if you had IQ data for Korea and Nigeria in 1960 and said because of that you expect Korean GDP to grow faster–that would have been prediction. Same sort of thing for China and Nigeria in 1985.

    can I estimate cognitive ability at the national level by educational attainment data?

    You really need to look at the behavior of your metric over time to judge this. A single snapshot is not sufficient.

    As far as this:

    Sorry res, long post, no time. I guess most of your points are directly or indirectly addressed in my update.

    Whatever. You and I both know that is not true.

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  64. @res
    That's a fair criticism. Korea is probably the best comparison. Compare Korea to Nigeria and Congo from 1960 to 1975 in this plot. Then compare 1975 to 2015. Easy to add more countries to see other comparisons if you like.

    Per capita GDP comparison

    Perhaps 1950 Japan?

    Why would you compare Nigeria and South Korea?

    Korea: a multiple-centuries old country with a culture and a strong collective awareness, heavily subsidized by the US in the context of the cold war, benefiting from a substantial industrial basis and infrastructure (by non-western 20th century standards) since the early 20th century, free of tropical endemic disease, that has historacally had a strong population density due to highly fertile soils fit for rice production, and so on.

    Nigeria: a post colonial patchwork of 250 ethnic groups, the largest barely making more than 20% of the total population. No sense of collective destiny whatsoever between those groups, only rivalry, civil war, coups. No established administrative culture with resource curse fueling corruption on top of that. Heavily burdened by every possible endemic disease, with poor soils (semi-arid to oxidated equatorial soils), and much more. Colonization? The British have barely built (I mean, used forced labor to build) 1000km of railways, a couple of schools to train a tiny indigenous intermediate class and a few factories

    Yet Nigeria is a diversified middle-income economy (oil only accounts for 11% of GDP), producing a large variety of basic industrial goods, despite minimal infrastructure, low foreign investment, high borrowing costs, currency shocks, corruption, lack of central planning, terrorism, overwhelming population growth… You seem to admire China, well, check the HDI figures above and notice that China is only halfway between Nigeria and the US, nothing more. Compare with Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria is just the same despite, I believe, a much lower historical starting point.

    It’s appalling how some people here have trouble with making sense of differences and resort to quasi-religious racial theories. Your outlook seems very nearsighted or colorstruck, and you clearly thorough knowledge of current and past socio-economic dynamics.

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    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    You also seem to have a problem with relative measure GDP per capita is Englatin for GDP by inhabitant.

    So when you invite people to look at GDP per capita growth rates, you need to be aware of the total growth in output and population.

    Then, you'll want to know who are these "per capita". Because you are aware that for some basic reasons, not everyone in the economy can contribute to GDP in the same manner. Since you also know that one of these basic reason is age, you will look for a country's GDP per working-age adult.

    After that, you'll get a clearer understanding of what you are talking about and won't be obsessing over irrelevant peripheral stuff. Better yet, you'll find foolish to compare Nigeria to Korea or Japan and you will rather chose Bangladesh, Pakistan, and if you're adventurous enough Indonesia or the Philippines.

    And of course, since you know that Nigeria was a British Colony in 1950, you won't want to bother me with comparative Japanese data of this era.
    , @res
    The best thing about people who go on about how successful Africa is now and will be in the future is how quickly they switch into Afroapologist excuse making mode when faced with data. Korea had some advantages (average IQ being a big one IMHO). They also had a devastating war in the 1950s.

    I sincerely wish Nigeria and the rest of Africa success. I am just sick of the combination of chest thumping and excuses. It is eerily similar to dynamics seen in the US. I wonder why that might be.

    I'll tell you what, get the wonderful Nigerian educational system to actually participate in the PISA tests and then we can talk about how great Nigerian education is. And perhaps have a real conversation about Nigerian IQ.

    Here is someone complaining about underfunded Nigerian schools in the context of PISA: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/11/no-nigerian-school-on-pisa-scale-educationist/

    Regarding China, take a look at that per capita GDP graph again. They were in a huge hole after Mao and have done an impressive job catching up. China is complex because it is basically a large highly advanced first world country combined with an immense third world country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP_per_capita
    Remember that is a log y axis. The China/Nigeria ratio is almost 4.
    It is also important to realize that their PPP GDP is almost 2x their nominal (US$) GDP.

    Per capita GDP including Pakistan and Bangladesh
    Similar starting points, similar ending points (with some deviations along the way, Africa seems to be good at boom/bust). Nothing like measuring yourself against the best. ; )

    If anyone is interested about how PPP /Nominal GDP varies among countries there is a nice map at http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-nominal-vs-gdp-ppp.php
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  65. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Japan started industrializing in the 1860s, before Spain or Russia.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan

    And Japan was industrialized enough to win a war against Russia in 1904-1905 and fight WWII. But after WWII it had some rebuilding to do. From your link:

    The early post-war years were devoted to rebuilding lost industrial capacity: major investments were made in electric power, coal, steel, and chemicals. By the mid-1950s, production matched prewar levels.

    Between 1953 and 1965, GDP expanded by more than 9% per year, manufacturing and mining by 13%, construction by 11%, and infrastructure by 12%. In 1965 these sectors employed more than 41% of the labor force, whereas only 26% remained in agriculture.

    The mid-1960s ushered in a new type of industrial development as the economy opened itself to international competition in some industries and developed heavy and chemical manufactures. Whereas textiles and light manufactures maintained their profitability internationally, other products, such as automobiles, electronics, ships, and machine tools assumed new importance. The value added to manufacturing and mining grew at the rate of 17% per year between 1965 and 1970.

    Even in 1950 Japan was 3x Nigeria’s per capita GDP: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP-per-capita-in-1950

    As I said in the comment you responded to: Korea is a better comparison.

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  66. How much of that Nigerian auto industry is more than just assembly? Comparing that to Japan’s ground up motorcycle (later automotive) industry is a bit sad

    What’s really sad is comparing Japan and Nigeria and showing such non-existent knowledge of these countries’ political and economic histories.

    Here is one made in Nigeria (70% of parts locally sourced) example:

    And you Believe all parts of your Toyota Camry were conceived and produced in Japan, or Canada, or wherever they assemble them for your area’s market? It’s globalization, buddy. 100% locally made products with advanced technology do not exist. China’s automotive industry is mostly foreign models assembled and sold under license, Volkswagen, Toyota and Nissan and their local partners dominate the market there. In the same fashion, Peugeot has been assembling cars in Nigeria in a local joint venture since the 1970s, a few other manufacturers came after. But a big industry needs a big market, and Nigeria has only recently started being one.

    I was not able to find production numbers for Innoson.

    Don’t bother.

    And to help the local auto “manufacturers” they banned auto imports:

    If you only knew all the things that Asian and other developing countries have “banned”. It’s called imports-substitution industrialization.

    https://www.google.fr/search?q=import+substitution+industrialization

    Your president is very fond of that by the way.

    There is a difference between correlation and prediction. Rain and wet sidewalks correlate, but wet sidewalks do not make a good predictor for rain.

    First I’ll ask you to immediately reject all that’s been written on IQ so far, because it’s all been built on much weaker and likely spurious correlations. Secondly, and for your own good, I’ll ask you to retract this stupid pseudo-analogy.

    It’s painful for me to tell an “elite college graduate” (I’m one too in my home country by the way) that 99.99999% of the world population (even those in IQ70 countries) can tell whether the ground is wet from the rain or an ice bucket challenge in just one fraction of a second.

    If you want to claim prediction you really need to show your measure discriminating between future outcomes. For example (see per capita GDP plot) if you had IQ data for Korea and Nigeria in 1960 and said because of that you expect Korean GDP to grow faster–that would have been prediction. Same sort of thing for China and Nigeria in 1985.

    You’re using too many “ifs” and conditional verbs here.

    Technology is what caused all of the gains in productivity and value added (GDP) since WWII. My parent’s generation needed no high school diploma to find a job in any sector of the economy. Managers just had a high school degree, some experience and company-funded training sessions. College grads were a tiny club of mostly non-STEM intellectuals (I live in France). At that time, the difference between France and Nigeria’s GDP was much lower than what it is now. Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then. And Nigeria’s GDP per capita is higher than 1970s France in constant prices. But the French have taken off so high that Nigeria still appears small in relation to France and they couldn’t competitively export anything that made the backbone of France’s industry back in the days.

    But if Nigeria engages in a national effort to catch up faster, by adding knowledge-based content to its domestic production, it will have to start by expanding it’s educational system and training facilities for the next generation of workers to acquire more technical knowledge that adds value to the production and adapt to more efficient production processes that reduce costs. My correlations make full sense when you understand the dynamics at work.

    What was your major, res?

    You really need to look at the behavior of your metric over time to judge this. A single snapshot is not sufficient.

    It is largely sufficient.

    Whatever. You and I both know that is not true.

    We know it’s too true for you to handle it.

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  67. @Afrosapiens
    Why would you compare Nigeria and South Korea?

    Korea: a multiple-centuries old country with a culture and a strong collective awareness, heavily subsidized by the US in the context of the cold war, benefiting from a substantial industrial basis and infrastructure (by non-western 20th century standards) since the early 20th century, free of tropical endemic disease, that has historacally had a strong population density due to highly fertile soils fit for rice production, and so on.

    Nigeria: a post colonial patchwork of 250 ethnic groups, the largest barely making more than 20% of the total population. No sense of collective destiny whatsoever between those groups, only rivalry, civil war, coups. No established administrative culture with resource curse fueling corruption on top of that. Heavily burdened by every possible endemic disease, with poor soils (semi-arid to oxidated equatorial soils), and much more. Colonization? The British have barely built (I mean, used forced labor to build) 1000km of railways, a couple of schools to train a tiny indigenous intermediate class and a few factories

    Yet Nigeria is a diversified middle-income economy (oil only accounts for 11% of GDP), producing a large variety of basic industrial goods, despite minimal infrastructure, low foreign investment, high borrowing costs, currency shocks, corruption, lack of central planning, terrorism, overwhelming population growth... You seem to admire China, well, check the HDI figures above and notice that China is only halfway between Nigeria and the US, nothing more. Compare with Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria is just the same despite, I believe, a much lower historical starting point.

    It's appalling how some people here have trouble with making sense of differences and resort to quasi-religious racial theories. Your outlook seems very nearsighted or colorstruck, and you clearly thorough knowledge of current and past socio-economic dynamics.

    You also seem to have a problem with relative measure GDP per capita is Englatin for GDP by inhabitant.

    So when you invite people to look at GDP per capita growth rates, you need to be aware of the total growth in output and population.

    Then, you’ll want to know who are these “per capita”. Because you are aware that for some basic reasons, not everyone in the economy can contribute to GDP in the same manner. Since you also know that one of these basic reason is age, you will look for a country’s GDP per working-age adult.

    After that, you’ll get a clearer understanding of what you are talking about and won’t be obsessing over irrelevant peripheral stuff. Better yet, you’ll find foolish to compare Nigeria to Korea or Japan and you will rather chose Bangladesh, Pakistan, and if you’re adventurous enough Indonesia or the Philippines.

    And of course, since you know that Nigeria was a British Colony in 1950, you won’t want to bother me with comparative Japanese data of this era.

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  68. lao gu says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    thanks you for devoting your time,energy and effort to contribute nothing but garbage

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  69. res says:

    It’s painful for me to tell an “elite college graduate” (I’m one too in my home country by the way)

    I wonder how comparable the institutions are. As comparable as the Korean and Nigerian auto industries? Or are you talking about France which does have true elite colleges?

    What was your major, res?

    EECS. Yours?

    Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then.

    Now that was funny. You mean like cars in large quantity? Or maybe you mean like the aircraft carriers France built in the 1950s? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_France#Clemenceau_class
    Or the French nuclear submarines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redoutable-class_submarine_(1967)
    Or maybe you mean the Concorde: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde
    LOL! That has to be one of the silliest comments I have seen on the Unz Review. You sure don’t know much about the history of your own country.

    I guess Nigeria does reasonably well by input oriented (e.g. number of years in school) education statistics. Result oriented statistics (e.g. literacy rates, test scores) not so much: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/Nigeria/Education
    I would not be bragging about education in a country with a 60% adult literacy rate (that is comparable to France, in about 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy#Prehistoric_literacy ).
    The input/result discrepancy is a valuable clue if you care to pay attention–as alluded to by Anonymous in comment 51.

    P.S. IMO not a lot worth responding to in the rest of your comment. If you think anything is particularly meaningful, please call it out.

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    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    I wonder how comparable the institutions are. As comparable as the Korean and Nigerian auto industries? Or are you talking about France which does have true elite colleges?

    I am talking about France which has true elite colleges.

    EECS. Yours?

    Business law.

    Now that was funny. You mean like cars in large quantity? Or maybe you mean like the aircraft carriers France built in the 1950s?

    They could certainly build 1950s technology aircraft carriers if it made sense to product them at a time when buying used 1980s tech warships would be far cheaper than initiating the whole project. And thank you for the links, but I'm French so it's not needed, nor even appreciated.

    LOL! That has to be one of the silliest comments I have seen on the Unz Review. You sure don’t know much about the history of your own country.

    What's silly is your economic illiteracy.

    See what's happening: some commenter says he doubts Africa has any sort of basic industry, so I google African manufacturing (what he could have done before publishing his comment). And then, instead of accepting that they do some basic manufacturing, and that there is nothing to add, what you guys are doing is convincing yourselves that they manufacture things but not really. Not a single thought for market dynamics, business environment, comparison with relevant countries. Nope, just trying to get the idea that Nigeria manufactures motorcycles in the same process that other countries do or have done at earlier stages of development out of your head. Bias is just too strong sometimes.

    I guess Nigeria does reasonably well by input oriented (e.g. number of years in school) education statistics. Result oriented statistics (e.g. literacy rates, test scores) not so much:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Not so well compared to which countries? Those of similar level of development or your beloved Korea?

    And I don't know what test scores you are talking about.

    I would not be bragging about education in a country with a 60% adult literacy rate (that is comparable to France, in about 1800:

    Lol! You're talking about a time when the definition of literacy was being able to write your name on administrative documents? In this case, Nigeria's literacy rate is 100% .

    The modern definition of literacy is different, there is no way to estimate it in the past.
    http://www.unesco.org/education/GMR2006/full/chapt6_eng.pdf

    The input/result discrepancy is a valuable clue if you care to pay attention–as alluded to by Anonymous in comment 51.

    The drop-out rates reflect the results. If the kids don't learn, their parents just can't afford to send them to school to do nothing.

    What's really funny is that we are now talking about Nigeria like my estimates gave it an IQ of 90 or 100. No, my estimate is 75 and Lynn's is 71. Are Lynn's estimates a sacred thing and imagining they could be inaccurate by just 4 points is blasphemy? The adult IQ is

    IMO not a lot worth responding to in the rest of your comment. If you think anything is particularly meaningful, please call it out.

    Which is another way to say you did not understand anything.

    The best thing about people who go on about how successful Africa is now and will be in the future is how quickly they switch into Afroapologist excuse making mode when faced with data.

    Who are "they"? I hope you're not referring to me.

    Korea had some advantages (average IQ being a big one IMHO). They also had a devastating war in the 1950s.

    So did Nigeria in the 60s (Biafra war), as well as several military juntas. In fact, I think you're calling an excuse any explanation that doesn't involve race and IQ, is that right?

    You know, one basic principle of scientific thinking is trying to falsify your ideas. I have probably read more HBD literature than you. How often do you read mainstream literature on the things you talk about? There is plenty to read if you want to.

    I sincerely wish Nigeria and the rest of Africa success. I am just sick of the combination of chest thumping and excuses. It is eerily similar to dynamics seen in the US. I wonder why that might be.

    No, you don't wish. You don't even want to understand why China is not what its pretended IQ is not what she's expected to be. Because everything that is not HBD (99.9999% of the literature on everything you try to understand) is politically correct jive in your world view.

    I’ll tell you what, get the wonderful Nigerian educational system to actually participate in the PISA tests and then we can talk about how great Nigerian education is. And perhaps have a real conversation about Nigerian IQ.

    At times I wonder if you're talking to another person. When did I say Nigeria's educative system is wonderful or even satisfying? Where in my data do I make it seem that Nigeria is equal to France or Korea in cognitive ability and development? We'll have a real conversation when you don't put words in my mouth.

    Here is someone complaining about underfunded Nigerian schools in the context of PISA:

    He has a lot to complain about, indeed. Where did I imply otherwise? And please stop with this stupid PISA, it leads nowhere.

    Regarding China, take a look at that per capita GDP graph again. They were in a huge hole after Mao and have done an impressive job catching up. China is complex because it is basically a large highly advanced first world country combined with an immense third world country:

    Thank you, but I know China's stats very well, more than the stats, I've read quite a bit about the "miracle" which isn't (The numbers look great, the lived reality behind not that much). You, who love anecdotes should definitely read some expats' stories about living and working in China.

    All countries know ups and downs, these are accidents, the hole in question likely is the "very bright" cultural revolution. When Germany was basically left to ruin after WWII, it was like apocalypse.

    But all the experience, all the skills were still there and the rebound was not like falling back to pre-industrial society. But when a country that was basically in the iron age in 1890 manufactures motorcycles (no matter what credit you want to give) less than a century after, that's not something you can dismiss like like it is just anecdotal.

    Remember that is a log y axis. The China/Nigeria ratio is almost 4.
    It is also important to realize that their PPP GDP is almost 2x their nominal (US$) GDP.


    Well, if you realize that I entered both China and Nigeria's GDP per capita in my chart, you must suspect that I know the figures. Plus I always use PPP because it is what makes sense when it comes to long term quality of life, nominal GDP fluctuates with exchange rates. So you don't need to tell me these things. What you need to do after comparing china and Nigeria is comparing China and the US. Why are you focusing on things that I do not say (here you're assuming that I'm saying Nigeria has performed as well as China) when you could at least try to explain why, given the IQ isn't the US trying to catch up to China instead of the opposite?

    Similar starting points, similar ending points (with some deviations along the way, Africa seems to be good at boom/bust).

    I'm talking about earlier starting points. History didn't start in the 60s. Let's talk about these booms and busts? Are they instinctive or can we explain them by rational political and macro-economic reasons that seem to be valid reasons to explain China's delays?

    Nothing like measuring yourself against the best.

    On what basis do you find a comparison relevant? Should we also compare Yemen and Norway like there is no way to understand why the two countries differ much more in development than Nigeria and China?

    If anyone is interested about how PPP /Nominal GDP varies among countries there is a nice map at

    I think most people who went to high school search these maps without needing your advice.
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  70. @Afrosapiens
    Any recent studies in Sierra Leone, Ghana, or Liberia, or 10-15 years ago? I ask as these countries have rather low recent murder rates.

    Demographic analysis is a professional science with complex procedures, no studies coming from small teams of researchers sampling a couple of hundreds or thousands individuals here and there can meet the standards of this field and come up with satisfying results. Demographic analysis is basically a monopoly of governments, inter-national organizations, big companies and polling agencies. They rely on thousands of pollsters and statisticians which are able to sample large numbers of individuals and do all the necessary socio-demographic adjustments.

    Anyway, there is no relationship between IQ and homicide at the international level.

    I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone. They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium. I first quit school after grade eight, as an example—arm blanke. You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called “outcomes based education,” despite lacking calculus—we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead. Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine.

    A simple test is available. Does schooling lead or lag economic growth? A good test case would be Haiti. Since the 2004 US/Canadian/French pedo-terrorist coup, primary school enrollment has been reduced from about 60% to about 39%, or if you prefer, the difference between 2006 and 2003 is 3 years, not 24 years, no matter how badly Al Qaeda NATO may wish otherwise. Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti’s IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not.

    What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning. Civil wars undermine fuel consumption, hence Sierra Leone’s current 25–18 years later murder rate, as African countries used up to 8 times more lead per litre petrol than Europe. Et cetera. Pretending that schooling could solve these problems is utterly unethical, as it is a means of avoiding addressing the very real problems besetting poor countries.

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    "I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone."

    What's ironical? My estimates lowers the IQs on some black countries that Lynn estimated higher. Racial considerations are not included in my Excel functions. And my estimate of Sierra Leone's IQ is 69.

    "They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium."

    Hence my estimate of 69.

    "You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. "

    Well, given that they wrote whole books claiming IQ correlates with these variables, the fact that my correlations are stronger and more consistent makes me rationally think that my numbers are better. My numbers are not telling a very different story from Lynn's, it actually tells the same story, without the anomalies that no one cared to explain before, and the explanation is straightforward: fraud.

    "Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called “outcomes based education,” despite lacking calculus—we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead."

    Can you rephrase this part?

    "Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine."

    It does, and Lynn's IQs have a low (inconsistent) correlation with homicide.

    "Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti’s IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not."

    Adult education accounts for half my final score, so the effect would be moderated. But see, some studies says IQ is lower during school holidays, so a sudden drop in enrollment could result in a drop in actual IQ.

    But in order to avoid these cases that make statistical noise , I calculated correlations from the 20 most populous countries of the world (only the Congo was at war). So the superiority of my estimates to Lynn's is validated for 70% of the world's population.

    "What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning."

    No, the way I made sense of the null IQ-crime correlation at international level is that it is more related to inequality within a country. Crime may be linked to IQ between individuals within a country but not between countries. Also, policing, incarceration rates, drug trade routes, characteristics of criminal activity play a role. In some countries, most homicide is domestic violence, in others it is senseless disputes, war, crowd justice, gangs, mafias, infanticide... The correlation might be low just because "homicide" happens in a variety of contexts. I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn't show up.
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  71. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Why would you compare Nigeria and South Korea?

    Korea: a multiple-centuries old country with a culture and a strong collective awareness, heavily subsidized by the US in the context of the cold war, benefiting from a substantial industrial basis and infrastructure (by non-western 20th century standards) since the early 20th century, free of tropical endemic disease, that has historacally had a strong population density due to highly fertile soils fit for rice production, and so on.

    Nigeria: a post colonial patchwork of 250 ethnic groups, the largest barely making more than 20% of the total population. No sense of collective destiny whatsoever between those groups, only rivalry, civil war, coups. No established administrative culture with resource curse fueling corruption on top of that. Heavily burdened by every possible endemic disease, with poor soils (semi-arid to oxidated equatorial soils), and much more. Colonization? The British have barely built (I mean, used forced labor to build) 1000km of railways, a couple of schools to train a tiny indigenous intermediate class and a few factories

    Yet Nigeria is a diversified middle-income economy (oil only accounts for 11% of GDP), producing a large variety of basic industrial goods, despite minimal infrastructure, low foreign investment, high borrowing costs, currency shocks, corruption, lack of central planning, terrorism, overwhelming population growth... You seem to admire China, well, check the HDI figures above and notice that China is only halfway between Nigeria and the US, nothing more. Compare with Pakistan and Bangladesh, Nigeria is just the same despite, I believe, a much lower historical starting point.

    It's appalling how some people here have trouble with making sense of differences and resort to quasi-religious racial theories. Your outlook seems very nearsighted or colorstruck, and you clearly thorough knowledge of current and past socio-economic dynamics.

    The best thing about people who go on about how successful Africa is now and will be in the future is how quickly they switch into Afroapologist excuse making mode when faced with data. Korea had some advantages (average IQ being a big one IMHO). They also had a devastating war in the 1950s.

    I sincerely wish Nigeria and the rest of Africa success. I am just sick of the combination of chest thumping and excuses. It is eerily similar to dynamics seen in the US. I wonder why that might be.

    I’ll tell you what, get the wonderful Nigerian educational system to actually participate in the PISA tests and then we can talk about how great Nigerian education is. And perhaps have a real conversation about Nigerian IQ.

    Here is someone complaining about underfunded Nigerian schools in the context of PISA: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/11/no-nigerian-school-on-pisa-scale-educationist/

    Regarding China, take a look at that per capita GDP graph again. They were in a huge hole after Mao and have done an impressive job catching up. China is complex because it is basically a large highly advanced first world country combined with an immense third world country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP_per_capita
    Remember that is a log y axis. The China/Nigeria ratio is almost 4.
    It is also important to realize that their PPP GDP is almost 2x their nominal (US$) GDP.

    Per capita GDP including Pakistan and Bangladesh
    Similar starting points, similar ending points (with some deviations along the way, Africa seems to be good at boom/bust). Nothing like measuring yourself against the best. ; )

    If anyone is interested about how PPP /Nominal GDP varies among countries there is a nice map at http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-nominal-vs-gdp-ppp.php

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  72. @res

    Previous comment marked as spam
     
    Now there is a constructive way to engage. At least it is better than an ad hominem attack and is also a little funny, so thanks for that.

    You’re citing sources of very questionable objectivity and you know it.
     
    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s). And you know it. I think the big difference here is I don't have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.


    Years of education actually had a negative coefficient!

     

    Impossible.
     
    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don't even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.


    Representative in that when you see a significant group of people who have (I believe) IQs on the order of 145 or higher then that says something about the overall population.
     
    Very anecdotal, You don’t even know their test results.

     

    It is indeed anecdotal. One of the things I look for is data matching my observed reality (how would you explain my observed reality?). As for knowing their scores, in some cases I did (undergrads talk about their SAT scores). For the rest I know my own test scores and the average for the group and can gauge their performance (test score results, grades. overall impression, etc.) relative to me and the group.

    Japan, and its 120+ million inhabitants definitely doesn’t have an impressive Nobel prize record. France, the UK and Germany did better in absolute and proportional terms.
     
    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Japanese_Nobel_laureates
    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then... That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    Here is an interesting paper looking at IQ by regions in Japan: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289613000949
    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahahahaha!, enough said.

    You do understand the issue with comparing a variable to one of its components, right?

    I do. Even then.
     
    That was a fun juxtaposition. Quoted exactly as it appeared.

    And remember, Africa is made of 50 countries including some that do relatively well.
     
    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China's start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    My correlation with GDP per capita explains 42% of the variance vs. 36% for Lynn’s (+17%) and my correlation with life expectancy explains 64% of the variance vs. 62% for Lynn’s (+3%). These aren’t large differences, it’s just as if I corrected measurement error and that the error in this case looked like racial bias on some particular countries…

     

    One question I see is how the causation works. I envision these causal chains:
    EI -> GDP -> EI
    IQ -> GDP -> IQ
    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong, but that question dramatically effects the value of a variable for prediction. Postdiction is still useful, but IMHO much less so.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI - IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US? The closest thing I have been able to find is SAT scores by race and parental education: http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/10/black-suits-gowns-skin-sat-scores-by.html

    I think most of what this argument comes down to is us having different priors (we can argue about how well each is supported by evidence, but are unlikely to resolve that here ; ) about whether there are significant differences between the average potential IQs of the races given the same environments.

    It likely hasn’t doubled, my estimate assumes a British IQ of 100 and the figures are expressed in relation to corresponding year Britain. So if a raw score has doubled but Britain has added some IQ points at the same time, the IQ estimate will not show such an increase.
     
    Good point. Even without the increased British IQ. There are still some crazy examples though. For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    P.S. Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.

    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s).

    Sure, and in it’s barely me: it’s the UN’s Human Development Program data, the Norwegian government and excel spreadsheets. My sole contribution was imagining that we could convert education variables into IQ scores. That’s a daring idea I know, I surely am the first person of this kind to ever try to predict IQ this way.

    I think the big difference here is I don’t have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.

    Yes, I’m making it such a personal issue that Africans now top my ranking and evil racist Europeans are at the bottom. And for my new number to make sense, I simply modified Excel’s functions so that they’d tell my truth.

    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don’t even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.

    Who needs this headache? Online IQ test = trash, period.

    When sampling is rigorous enough and the testing context was professional, you can ask yourself whether the results were corrected for the Flynn effect, what was the detailed demographic profile of the sample, what were the subjects’s attitudes to the test… Even if you answer all these questions properly, you’ll want to tell yourself that a sample only represents a sample and that compiling samples does not allow to extrapolate to a whole population without a thorough demographic analysis.

    And on the internet, keep in mind that people show you what they want to show you, and since you know the answers before asking the questions, all the research you do is more or less confirmation bias.

    It is indeed anecdotal.

    So retract that, I don’t want to know anything about your wonderful life.

    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive:

    Over the time period that Japan was a very populated industrial country: about 100 years (considering it did not reach industrial maturity in the 1860s).

    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then… That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.

    Yes, and? You’re trying to tell me that what is true for Japan can’t be true for Nigeria or Indonesia? I’m under the impression that you are intentionally wasting my time. Am I right?

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

    The major point is that you’re making no point at all because this is simply not correct. Not even close.

    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.

    Hahahaha! Significant? a 0.42 correlation? You know what you told me about correlations above. Or I’ll need to unlearn everything I know and live in a world in which a 0.42 correlation makes more sense than a 0.89 one.

    Anyway, north-south Gradient? Like northern whites > southern whites in the US? What about Southern Britain, southern Germany, southern Ghana, southern Sweden, southern Poland being more developed and likely smarter than their northern counterparts? Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangzhou being the powerhouses of China, instead of Harbin and Beijing? And how do you explain East-West gradients?

    Climate does play a role in the development of regions. For some reasons, human societies do better in temperate climates, than colder or warmer ones, disease. History also plays a role, trade routes, centers of political power, areas of endemic disease, complicated transportation and other factors have different chances of accumulating investment and resources over the long term. And those regions that get a head start in development are those that build better education systems, attract and retain the most skilled workforce. You don’t need an evolutionary explanation to understand why West Virginia would most likely score much lower on representative IQ studies than the North of Virginia.

    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China’s start was a bit delayed due to politics).

    Yes, I’d say a 500 years delay approximately. Due to politics. Politics can cripple economy in China but not in Africa. Politics cripples economy, but genetics makes growth. I get you, that’s very insightful…

    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong

    You’re likely wrong.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI – IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US?

    It is. What we won’t agree on is which one causes the other.

    For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?

    I don’t know, the EI is not the measure from which I derive my estimates of child IQ. They’re based on expected years of education in country X relative to Britain. And I don’t even know how it matters. They were under soviet occupation by the way, it was messy.

    Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.

    I forgive you, and I forgive your inability to connect the dots.

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    • Replies: @res

    So retract that, I don’t want to know anything about your wonderful life.
     
    You mad bro?

    One of us is engaging in massive projection here. I don't think it is me.
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  73. dearieme says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Which African country could produce such a thing even now?

    Nigeria produces cars and motorcycles for the whole West-African market, Ghana has a smaller automotive industry too. Ethiopia recently started car-assembly, South Africa likely produced cars before any Asian country.

    Yeah, “produces” in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else’s on the market at the time.

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    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    Yeah, “produces” in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else’s on the market at the time.

    Don't say it like motorcycles were high tech at that time. Just because they conceived them doesn't mean they added significant technological content to them, they were just cheap. Why are we talking about Japan like it went from African level development to an advanced economy overnight and with similar challenges?
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  74. @res

    It’s painful for me to tell an “elite college graduate” (I’m one too in my home country by the way)

     

    I wonder how comparable the institutions are. As comparable as the Korean and Nigerian auto industries? Or are you talking about France which does have true elite colleges?

    What was your major, res?
     
    EECS. Yours?

    Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then.
     
    Now that was funny. You mean like cars in large quantity? Or maybe you mean like the aircraft carriers France built in the 1950s? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_France#Clemenceau_class
    Or the French nuclear submarines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redoutable-class_submarine_(1967)
    Or maybe you mean the Concorde: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde
    LOL! That has to be one of the silliest comments I have seen on the Unz Review. You sure don't know much about the history of your own country.

    I guess Nigeria does reasonably well by input oriented (e.g. number of years in school) education statistics. Result oriented statistics (e.g. literacy rates, test scores) not so much: http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/Nigeria/Education
    I would not be bragging about education in a country with a 60% adult literacy rate (that is comparable to France, in about 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy#Prehistoric_literacy ).
    The input/result discrepancy is a valuable clue if you care to pay attention--as alluded to by Anonymous in comment 51.

    P.S. IMO not a lot worth responding to in the rest of your comment. If you think anything is particularly meaningful, please call it out.

    I wonder how comparable the institutions are. As comparable as the Korean and Nigerian auto industries? Or are you talking about France which does have true elite colleges?

    I am talking about France which has true elite colleges.

    EECS. Yours?

    Business law.

    Now that was funny. You mean like cars in large quantity? Or maybe you mean like the aircraft carriers France built in the 1950s?

    They could certainly build 1950s technology aircraft carriers if it made sense to product them at a time when buying used 1980s tech warships would be far cheaper than initiating the whole project. And thank you for the links, but I’m French so it’s not needed, nor even appreciated.

    LOL! That has to be one of the silliest comments I have seen on the Unz Review. You sure don’t know much about the history of your own country.

    What’s silly is your economic illiteracy.

    See what’s happening: some commenter says he doubts Africa has any sort of basic industry, so I google African manufacturing (what he could have done before publishing his comment). And then, instead of accepting that they do some basic manufacturing, and that there is nothing to add, what you guys are doing is convincing yourselves that they manufacture things but not really. Not a single thought for market dynamics, business environment, comparison with relevant countries. Nope, just trying to get the idea that Nigeria manufactures motorcycles in the same process that other countries do or have done at earlier stages of development out of your head. Bias is just too strong sometimes.

    I guess Nigeria does reasonably well by input oriented (e.g. number of years in school) education statistics. Result oriented statistics (e.g. literacy rates, test scores) not so much:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Not so well compared to which countries? Those of similar level of development or your beloved Korea?

    And I don’t know what test scores you are talking about.

    I would not be bragging about education in a country with a 60% adult literacy rate (that is comparable to France, in about 1800:

    Lol! You’re talking about a time when the definition of literacy was being able to write your name on administrative documents? In this case, Nigeria’s literacy rate is 100% .

    The modern definition of literacy is different, there is no way to estimate it in the past.

    http://www.unesco.org/education/GMR2006/full/chapt6_eng.pdf

    The input/result discrepancy is a valuable clue if you care to pay attention–as alluded to by Anonymous in comment 51.

    The drop-out rates reflect the results. If the kids don’t learn, their parents just can’t afford to send them to school to do nothing.

    What’s really funny is that we are now talking about Nigeria like my estimates gave it an IQ of 90 or 100. No, my estimate is 75 and Lynn’s is 71. Are Lynn’s estimates a sacred thing and imagining they could be inaccurate by just 4 points is blasphemy? The adult IQ is

    IMO not a lot worth responding to in the rest of your comment. If you think anything is particularly meaningful, please call it out.

    Which is another way to say you did not understand anything.

    The best thing about people who go on about how successful Africa is now and will be in the future is how quickly they switch into Afroapologist excuse making mode when faced with data.

    Who are “they”? I hope you’re not referring to me.

    Korea had some advantages (average IQ being a big one IMHO). They also had a devastating war in the 1950s.

    So did Nigeria in the 60s (Biafra war), as well as several military juntas. In fact, I think you’re calling an excuse any explanation that doesn’t involve race and IQ, is that right?

    You know, one basic principle of scientific thinking is trying to falsify your ideas. I have probably read more HBD literature than you. How often do you read mainstream literature on the things you talk about? There is plenty to read if you want to.

    I sincerely wish Nigeria and the rest of Africa success. I am just sick of the combination of chest thumping and excuses. It is eerily similar to dynamics seen in the US. I wonder why that might be.

    No, you don’t wish. You don’t even want to understand why China is not what its pretended IQ is not what she’s expected to be. Because everything that is not HBD (99.9999% of the literature on everything you try to understand) is politically correct jive in your world view.

    I’ll tell you what, get the wonderful Nigerian educational system to actually participate in the PISA tests and then we can talk about how great Nigerian education is. And perhaps have a real conversation about Nigerian IQ.

    At times I wonder if you’re talking to another person. When did I say Nigeria’s educative system is wonderful or even satisfying? Where in my data do I make it seem that Nigeria is equal to France or Korea in cognitive ability and development? We’ll have a real conversation when you don’t put words in my mouth.

    Here is someone complaining about underfunded Nigerian schools in the context of PISA:

    He has a lot to complain about, indeed. Where did I imply otherwise? And please stop with this stupid PISA, it leads nowhere.

    Regarding China, take a look at that per capita GDP graph again. They were in a huge hole after Mao and have done an impressive job catching up. China is complex because it is basically a large highly advanced first world country combined with an immense third world country:

    Thank you, but I know China’s stats very well, more than the stats, I’ve read quite a bit about the “miracle” which isn’t (The numbers look great, the lived reality behind not that much). You, who love anecdotes should definitely read some expats’ stories about living and working in China.

    All countries know ups and downs, these are accidents, the hole in question likely is the “very bright” cultural revolution. When Germany was basically left to ruin after WWII, it was like apocalypse.

    But all the experience, all the skills were still there and the rebound was not like falling back to pre-industrial society. But when a country that was basically in the iron age in 1890 manufactures motorcycles (no matter what credit you want to give) less than a century after, that’s not something you can dismiss like like it is just anecdotal.

    Remember that is a log y axis. The China/Nigeria ratio is almost 4.
    It is also important to realize that their PPP GDP is almost 2x their nominal (US$) GDP.

    Well, if you realize that I entered both China and Nigeria’s GDP per capita in my chart, you must suspect that I know the figures. Plus I always use PPP because it is what makes sense when it comes to long term quality of life, nominal GDP fluctuates with exchange rates. So you don’t need to tell me these things. What you need to do after comparing china and Nigeria is comparing China and the US. Why are you focusing on things that I do not say (here you’re assuming that I’m saying Nigeria has performed as well as China) when you could at least try to explain why, given the IQ isn’t the US trying to catch up to China instead of the opposite?

    Similar starting points, similar ending points (with some deviations along the way, Africa seems to be good at boom/bust).

    I’m talking about earlier starting points. History didn’t start in the 60s. Let’s talk about these booms and busts? Are they instinctive or can we explain them by rational political and macro-economic reasons that seem to be valid reasons to explain China’s delays?

    Nothing like measuring yourself against the best.

    On what basis do you find a comparison relevant? Should we also compare Yemen and Norway like there is no way to understand why the two countries differ much more in development than Nigeria and China?

    If anyone is interested about how PPP /Nominal GDP varies among countries there is a nice map at

    I think most people who went to high school search these maps without needing your advice.

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    • Replies: @res

    EECS. Yours?

    Business law.
     

     
    Thanks. That explains a lot. Law has a great deal of words, words, words trying to advocate for things that aren't really true (any resemblance with your comments is strictly coincidental of course). Engineering is more about trying to understand and work with reality (similarly with science). Law more about manipulating perceptions of that reality (and enforcing contracts and criminal statutes).

    They could certainly...
     
    Just keep telling yourself that. I notice you did not address my other examples (nuclear subs, Concorde).

    And thank you for the links, but I’m French so it’s not needed, nor even appreciated.
     
    It sure seemed to be needed given your ridiculous assertion. I am looking forward to seeing that Nigerian supersonic passenger jet.

    No, you don’t wish.
     
    Telling other people what they think is offensive. What makes you think you know my underlying beliefs and desires better than I do? Africa becoming a functional and successful continent (and getting their population under control) would be a huge gain for the rest of the world. Why would I not wish for that?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Not so well compared to which countries? Those of similar level of development or your beloved Korea?
     
    Compared to virtually all countries outside of Africa. As shown by your link. But Nigeria at 60% literacy (with how many years of average education?!) compares favorably to Niger at 19%. I guess that is one definition of success. I have trouble bouncing between (paraphrases) "Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France" and "comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair." It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.

    And I don’t know what test scores you are talking about.
     
    Well, in this case it would be the PISA scores except Nigeria can't seem to even manage to get that done. The paucity of real data like this in Africa is a problem in making accurate assessments. But I am pretty sure the lack of data does not indicate excellence.

    here you’re assuming that I’m saying Nigeria has performed as well as China
     
    NO! I am observing that starting from a similar base (actually, Nigeria was ahead of China in per capita GDP for decades) China's GDP has soared while Nigeria's has not. The question we are left to explain is why. I contend that average IQ is a likely reason and Lynn's IQ estimates explain that better than yours do.

    On what basis do you find a comparison relevant?
     
    There are many possible bases for comparison. One basis is aspirational. For example, trying to find an area that was similar by some measure (say development level) in the past and went on to success and try to understand if that success can be emulated. One basis is broadly comparative. For example, look at all countries and try to assess similarities and differences and possible causative factors along with ones place in any number of orderings. One basis is narrow comparison. I think the last is commonly done to assess "how am I doing?" In my experience losers compare themselves to the mediocre and thump their chests. Winners compare themselves to the successful and aspire to emulate that.

    I had not realized the Africa-Korea comparison was so disliked these days. This helped me understand the strength of reaction I am getting: http://www.afrol.com/articles/22953
    Some great Afroapologism there.

    I think most people who went to high school search these maps without needing your advice.
     
    Even though I am capable of searching for many things I appreciate people pointing out interesting things to me. I think that trait correlates with certain other traits being discussed here.

    P.S. What is up with the style of argumentation attempting to establish a position of (imagined) expertise relative to me by denigration (e.g. my "economic illiteracy")? Is that a black thing, or a lawyer thing, or ? I seem to encounter it most often in discussions about race. Afrosapiens is clearly intelligent and adept with both words and statistics. It's just that at some point even those are insufficient to prove certain assertions (although a good lawyer might be able to convince some people). I think one might be able to notice a correlation between that inability and the truth status of those assertions. I wonder if that correlation is causative in one direction or the other.
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  75. @dearieme
    Yeah, "produces" in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else's on the market at the time.

    Yeah, “produces” in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else’s on the market at the time.

    Don’t say it like motorcycles were high tech at that time. Just because they conceived them doesn’t mean they added significant technological content to them, they were just cheap. Why are we talking about Japan like it went from African level development to an advanced economy overnight and with similar challenges?

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    • Replies: @res

    Just because they conceived them doesn’t mean they added significant technological content to them, they were just cheap.
     
    For someone who claims to be economically and historically (and I am sure many other competencies) literate it is odd that you missed out on the Japanese motorcycle and auto industry progression from cheap to world beating. In particular, I think the Japanese approach to quality revolutionized world manufacturing (with an important assist from Deming, an American).

    Why are we talking about Japan like it went from African level development to an advanced economy overnight and with similar challenges?
     
    Because we are not. See my scale of technological competence comment above. I think your denigration of cheap Japanese motorcycles is an important clue for why Africa seems to always slip and fall on the first few steps of the ladder of technological competence.

    Afroapologism is fun to watch. But tedious to engage with.
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  76. res says:
    @Afrosapiens

    True. You, of course, are being a paragon of objectivity here (/s).
     
    Sure, and in it's barely me: it's the UN's Human Development Program data, the Norwegian government and excel spreadsheets. My sole contribution was imagining that we could convert education variables into IQ scores. That's a daring idea I know, I surely am the first person of this kind to ever try to predict IQ this way.

    I think the big difference here is I don’t have an emotional stake in the results (I am neither Chinese nor African). I think you do.
     
    Yes, I'm making it such a personal issue that Africans now top my ranking and evil racist Europeans are at the bottom. And for my new number to make sense, I simply modified Excel's functions so that they'd tell my truth.

    Another constructive response. Read the paper (I cited the relevant table so you don’t even have to look hard for it). IMHO it is probably an artifact of the data (the question is whether it is meaningful or not, my bet is it has to do with self-selection bias and high IQ autodidact types being more likely to choose to take an online test). The variable most correlated with years of education was % Han. Odd things can happen when dealing with intercorrelated variables. You see that sort of thing in US studies that include highly correlated variables like % black, SES, and IQ. It gives frequent opportunities to manipulate results by a careful choice of explanatory variables. I would be more skeptical of the Lynn and Cheng results if they had done anything other than include all the variables they measured. Log(GDP) (or income) is a common transform so does not concern me.
     
    Who needs this headache? Online IQ test = trash, period.

    When sampling is rigorous enough and the testing context was professional, you can ask yourself whether the results were corrected for the Flynn effect, what was the detailed demographic profile of the sample, what were the subjects's attitudes to the test... Even if you answer all these questions properly, you'll want to tell yourself that a sample only represents a sample and that compiling samples does not allow to extrapolate to a whole population without a thorough demographic analysis.

    And on the internet, keep in mind that people show you what they want to show you, and since you know the answers before asking the questions, all the research you do is more or less confirmation bias.

    It is indeed anecdotal.
     
    So retract that, I don't want to know anything about your wonderful life.

    Over what time period? You are clearly correct over the long term, but I think the Japanese results since 2000 are impressive:
     
    Over the time period that Japan was a very populated industrial country: about 100 years (considering it did not reach industrial maturity in the 1860s).

    You do understand the idea of progression up the scale of technological competence, right? First you manufacture cheap bicycles, then better and better motorcycles, then… That takes time and Nobel prizes are typically awarded with a substantial delay from when the work was done.
     
    Yes, and? You're trying to tell me that what is true for Japan can't be true for Nigeria or Indonesia? I'm under the impression that you are intentionally wasting my time. Am I right?

    The major point there is the rate of change in Nobels. Japan, China, and Korea were surprisingly similar to Africa in development as late as the 1960s. Compare their trajectories since then.

     

    The major point is that you're making no point at all because this is simply not correct. Not even close.

    Unfortunately it neither includes years of education in the analysis nor gives IQ in a way I can compare to international norms. Their inclusion of skin color as a (significant) explanatory variable gives a good look at how the PC regime is not dominant everywhere.
     
    Hahahaha! Significant? a 0.42 correlation? You know what you told me about correlations above. Or I'll need to unlearn everything I know and live in a world in which a 0.42 correlation makes more sense than a 0.89 one.

    Anyway, north-south Gradient? Like northern whites > southern whites in the US? What about Southern Britain, southern Germany, southern Ghana, southern Sweden, southern Poland being more developed and likely smarter than their northern counterparts? Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangzhou being the powerhouses of China, instead of Harbin and Beijing? And how do you explain East-West gradients?

    Climate does play a role in the development of regions. For some reasons, human societies do better in temperate climates, than colder or warmer ones, disease. History also plays a role, trade routes, centers of political power, areas of endemic disease, complicated transportation and other factors have different chances of accumulating investment and resources over the long term. And those regions that get a head start in development are those that build better education systems, attract and retain the most skilled workforce. You don't need an evolutionary explanation to understand why West Virginia would most likely score much lower on representative IQ studies than the North of Virginia.

    Africa is full of countries that do well in short bursts (say when a particular resource spikes in price or during an atypical period of extended peace), but I have trouble finding examples that do well over an extended period (perhaps you could help me with this?), much less doing as well as Japan, Korea, and China have done over the last 50 years (China’s start was a bit delayed due to politics).
     
    Yes, I'd say a 500 years delay approximately. Due to politics. Politics can cripple economy in China but not in Africa. Politics cripples economy, but genetics makes growth. I get you, that's very insightful...

    Of those two chains I think the dominant components are GDP -> EI and IQ -> GDP. This could be wrong
     
    You're likely wrong.

    Another major issue I see is whether the EI – IQ relationship is consistent across races and cultures (see my comment 26). Does anyone have data showing education and IQ by race in the US?
     
    It is. What we won't agree on is which one causes the other.

    For instance in Afghanistan you estimate a school age IQ of 77. From 1980 to 2013 their EI increased just short of 5x. What do you think their IQ was in 1980?
     
    I don't know, the EI is not the measure from which I derive my estimates of child IQ. They're based on expected years of education in country X relative to Britain. And I don't even know how it matters. They were under soviet occupation by the way, it was messy.


    Sorry about my mistake with reading the Chinese school age IQ from your table. My point stands with the correct estimate of 90 but loses some of its force.
     
    I forgive you, and I forgive your inability to connect the dots.

    So retract that, I don’t want to know anything about your wonderful life.

    You mad bro?

    One of us is engaging in massive projection here. I don’t think it is me.

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    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    You're the salty one here.
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  77. @Johan Meyer
    I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone. They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium. I first quit school after grade eight, as an example---arm blanke. You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called "outcomes based education," despite lacking calculus---we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead. Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine.

    A simple test is available. Does schooling lead or lag economic growth? A good test case would be Haiti. Since the 2004 US/Canadian/French pedo-terrorist coup, primary school enrollment has been reduced from about 60% to about 39%, or if you prefer, the difference between 2006 and 2003 is 3 years, not 24 years, no matter how badly Al Qaeda NATO may wish otherwise. Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti's IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not.

    What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning. Civil wars undermine fuel consumption, hence Sierra Leone's current 25--18 years later murder rate, as African countries used up to 8 times more lead per litre petrol than Europe. Et cetera. Pretending that schooling could solve these problems is utterly unethical, as it is a means of avoiding addressing the very real problems besetting poor countries.

    “I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone.”

    What’s ironical? My estimates lowers the IQs on some black countries that Lynn estimated higher. Racial considerations are not included in my Excel functions. And my estimate of Sierra Leone’s IQ is 69.

    “They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium.”

    Hence my estimate of 69.

    “You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. ”

    Well, given that they wrote whole books claiming IQ correlates with these variables, the fact that my correlations are stronger and more consistent makes me rationally think that my numbers are better. My numbers are not telling a very different story from Lynn’s, it actually tells the same story, without the anomalies that no one cared to explain before, and the explanation is straightforward: fraud.

    “Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called “outcomes based education,” despite lacking calculus—we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead.”

    Can you rephrase this part?

    “Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine.”

    It does, and Lynn’s IQs have a low (inconsistent) correlation with homicide.

    “Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti’s IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not.”

    Adult education accounts for half my final score, so the effect would be moderated. But see, some studies says IQ is lower during school holidays, so a sudden drop in enrollment could result in a drop in actual IQ.

    But in order to avoid these cases that make statistical noise , I calculated correlations from the 20 most populous countries of the world (only the Congo was at war). So the superiority of my estimates to Lynn’s is validated for 70% of the world’s population.

    “What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning.”

    No, the way I made sense of the null IQ-crime correlation at international level is that it is more related to inequality within a country. Crime may be linked to IQ between individuals within a country but not between countries. Also, policing, incarceration rates, drug trade routes, characteristics of criminal activity play a role. In some countries, most homicide is domestic violence, in others it is senseless disputes, war, crowd justice, gangs, mafias, infanticide… The correlation might be low just because “homicide” happens in a variety of contexts. I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max

    I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.
     
    This might be the explanation:

    Personally, I believe that the MAOA gene is more important and has more of an effect on the functioning or non-functioning of a society than “just” IQ. It just happens to be, that many of the lower-IQ societies also happen to have a higher number of low-activity MAOA carriers, and most IQ researchers do not control for that, and attribute all those nations’ “shortcomings” just to IQ, when the “real” explanation is a combination of lack of impulse control (low-activity MAOA) and (low) IQ, IMO
    [...]
    For instance, low IQ does not increase violent tendencies in men with MAOA-4R, but it does in men with MAOA-3R.

    – http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/scientists-rediscover-violence-gene.html
    [...]
    So the perfect violence soup is low MAO-A, social isolation, high testosterone, being poor and having a low IQ.[...] The 2R version, which produces the least MAO-A, is found in 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men. - https://selfhacked.com/2014/12/07/about-mao-a-and-what-to-do-if-you-have-the-warrior-gene/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    I hope your article will be accepted.

    Keep us updated and good luck!
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  78. @res

    So retract that, I don’t want to know anything about your wonderful life.
     
    You mad bro?

    One of us is engaging in massive projection here. I don't think it is me.

    You’re the salty one here.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    There is plenty of saltiness to go around here. This is much less personal to me than it is to you though, which is an important difference.
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  79. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    I wonder how comparable the institutions are. As comparable as the Korean and Nigerian auto industries? Or are you talking about France which does have true elite colleges?

    I am talking about France which has true elite colleges.

    EECS. Yours?

    Business law.

    Now that was funny. You mean like cars in large quantity? Or maybe you mean like the aircraft carriers France built in the 1950s?

    They could certainly build 1950s technology aircraft carriers if it made sense to product them at a time when buying used 1980s tech warships would be far cheaper than initiating the whole project. And thank you for the links, but I'm French so it's not needed, nor even appreciated.

    LOL! That has to be one of the silliest comments I have seen on the Unz Review. You sure don’t know much about the history of your own country.

    What's silly is your economic illiteracy.

    See what's happening: some commenter says he doubts Africa has any sort of basic industry, so I google African manufacturing (what he could have done before publishing his comment). And then, instead of accepting that they do some basic manufacturing, and that there is nothing to add, what you guys are doing is convincing yourselves that they manufacture things but not really. Not a single thought for market dynamics, business environment, comparison with relevant countries. Nope, just trying to get the idea that Nigeria manufactures motorcycles in the same process that other countries do or have done at earlier stages of development out of your head. Bias is just too strong sometimes.

    I guess Nigeria does reasonably well by input oriented (e.g. number of years in school) education statistics. Result oriented statistics (e.g. literacy rates, test scores) not so much:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Not so well compared to which countries? Those of similar level of development or your beloved Korea?

    And I don't know what test scores you are talking about.

    I would not be bragging about education in a country with a 60% adult literacy rate (that is comparable to France, in about 1800:

    Lol! You're talking about a time when the definition of literacy was being able to write your name on administrative documents? In this case, Nigeria's literacy rate is 100% .

    The modern definition of literacy is different, there is no way to estimate it in the past.
    http://www.unesco.org/education/GMR2006/full/chapt6_eng.pdf

    The input/result discrepancy is a valuable clue if you care to pay attention–as alluded to by Anonymous in comment 51.

    The drop-out rates reflect the results. If the kids don't learn, their parents just can't afford to send them to school to do nothing.

    What's really funny is that we are now talking about Nigeria like my estimates gave it an IQ of 90 or 100. No, my estimate is 75 and Lynn's is 71. Are Lynn's estimates a sacred thing and imagining they could be inaccurate by just 4 points is blasphemy? The adult IQ is

    IMO not a lot worth responding to in the rest of your comment. If you think anything is particularly meaningful, please call it out.

    Which is another way to say you did not understand anything.

    The best thing about people who go on about how successful Africa is now and will be in the future is how quickly they switch into Afroapologist excuse making mode when faced with data.

    Who are "they"? I hope you're not referring to me.

    Korea had some advantages (average IQ being a big one IMHO). They also had a devastating war in the 1950s.

    So did Nigeria in the 60s (Biafra war), as well as several military juntas. In fact, I think you're calling an excuse any explanation that doesn't involve race and IQ, is that right?

    You know, one basic principle of scientific thinking is trying to falsify your ideas. I have probably read more HBD literature than you. How often do you read mainstream literature on the things you talk about? There is plenty to read if you want to.

    I sincerely wish Nigeria and the rest of Africa success. I am just sick of the combination of chest thumping and excuses. It is eerily similar to dynamics seen in the US. I wonder why that might be.

    No, you don't wish. You don't even want to understand why China is not what its pretended IQ is not what she's expected to be. Because everything that is not HBD (99.9999% of the literature on everything you try to understand) is politically correct jive in your world view.

    I’ll tell you what, get the wonderful Nigerian educational system to actually participate in the PISA tests and then we can talk about how great Nigerian education is. And perhaps have a real conversation about Nigerian IQ.

    At times I wonder if you're talking to another person. When did I say Nigeria's educative system is wonderful or even satisfying? Where in my data do I make it seem that Nigeria is equal to France or Korea in cognitive ability and development? We'll have a real conversation when you don't put words in my mouth.

    Here is someone complaining about underfunded Nigerian schools in the context of PISA:

    He has a lot to complain about, indeed. Where did I imply otherwise? And please stop with this stupid PISA, it leads nowhere.

    Regarding China, take a look at that per capita GDP graph again. They were in a huge hole after Mao and have done an impressive job catching up. China is complex because it is basically a large highly advanced first world country combined with an immense third world country:

    Thank you, but I know China's stats very well, more than the stats, I've read quite a bit about the "miracle" which isn't (The numbers look great, the lived reality behind not that much). You, who love anecdotes should definitely read some expats' stories about living and working in China.

    All countries know ups and downs, these are accidents, the hole in question likely is the "very bright" cultural revolution. When Germany was basically left to ruin after WWII, it was like apocalypse.

    But all the experience, all the skills were still there and the rebound was not like falling back to pre-industrial society. But when a country that was basically in the iron age in 1890 manufactures motorcycles (no matter what credit you want to give) less than a century after, that's not something you can dismiss like like it is just anecdotal.

    Remember that is a log y axis. The China/Nigeria ratio is almost 4.
    It is also important to realize that their PPP GDP is almost 2x their nominal (US$) GDP.


    Well, if you realize that I entered both China and Nigeria's GDP per capita in my chart, you must suspect that I know the figures. Plus I always use PPP because it is what makes sense when it comes to long term quality of life, nominal GDP fluctuates with exchange rates. So you don't need to tell me these things. What you need to do after comparing china and Nigeria is comparing China and the US. Why are you focusing on things that I do not say (here you're assuming that I'm saying Nigeria has performed as well as China) when you could at least try to explain why, given the IQ isn't the US trying to catch up to China instead of the opposite?

    Similar starting points, similar ending points (with some deviations along the way, Africa seems to be good at boom/bust).

    I'm talking about earlier starting points. History didn't start in the 60s. Let's talk about these booms and busts? Are they instinctive or can we explain them by rational political and macro-economic reasons that seem to be valid reasons to explain China's delays?

    Nothing like measuring yourself against the best.

    On what basis do you find a comparison relevant? Should we also compare Yemen and Norway like there is no way to understand why the two countries differ much more in development than Nigeria and China?

    If anyone is interested about how PPP /Nominal GDP varies among countries there is a nice map at

    I think most people who went to high school search these maps without needing your advice.

    EECS. Yours?

    Business law.

    Thanks. That explains a lot. Law has a great deal of words, words, words trying to advocate for things that aren’t really true (any resemblance with your comments is strictly coincidental of course). Engineering is more about trying to understand and work with reality (similarly with science). Law more about manipulating perceptions of that reality (and enforcing contracts and criminal statutes).

    They could certainly…

    Just keep telling yourself that. I notice you did not address my other examples (nuclear subs, Concorde).

    And thank you for the links, but I’m French so it’s not needed, nor even appreciated.

    It sure seemed to be needed given your ridiculous assertion. I am looking forward to seeing that Nigerian supersonic passenger jet.

    No, you don’t wish.

    Telling other people what they think is offensive. What makes you think you know my underlying beliefs and desires better than I do? Africa becoming a functional and successful continent (and getting their population under control) would be a huge gain for the rest of the world. Why would I not wish for that?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate

    Not so well compared to which countries? Those of similar level of development or your beloved Korea?

    Compared to virtually all countries outside of Africa. As shown by your link. But Nigeria at 60% literacy (with how many years of average education?!) compares favorably to Niger at 19%. I guess that is one definition of success. I have trouble bouncing between (paraphrases) “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.

    And I don’t know what test scores you are talking about.

    Well, in this case it would be the PISA scores except Nigeria can’t seem to even manage to get that done. The paucity of real data like this in Africa is a problem in making accurate assessments. But I am pretty sure the lack of data does not indicate excellence.

    here you’re assuming that I’m saying Nigeria has performed as well as China

    NO! I am observing that starting from a similar base (actually, Nigeria was ahead of China in per capita GDP for decades) China’s GDP has soared while Nigeria’s has not. The question we are left to explain is why. I contend that average IQ is a likely reason and Lynn’s IQ estimates explain that better than yours do.

    On what basis do you find a comparison relevant?

    There are many possible bases for comparison. One basis is aspirational. For example, trying to find an area that was similar by some measure (say development level) in the past and went on to success and try to understand if that success can be emulated. One basis is broadly comparative. For example, look at all countries and try to assess similarities and differences and possible causative factors along with ones place in any number of orderings. One basis is narrow comparison. I think the last is commonly done to assess “how am I doing?” In my experience losers compare themselves to the mediocre and thump their chests. Winners compare themselves to the successful and aspire to emulate that.

    I had not realized the Africa-Korea comparison was so disliked these days. This helped me understand the strength of reaction I am getting: http://www.afrol.com/articles/22953
    Some great Afroapologism there.

    I think most people who went to high school search these maps without needing your advice.

    Even though I am capable of searching for many things I appreciate people pointing out interesting things to me. I think that trait correlates with certain other traits being discussed here.

    P.S. What is up with the style of argumentation attempting to establish a position of (imagined) expertise relative to me by denigration (e.g. my “economic illiteracy”)? Is that a black thing, or a lawyer thing, or ? I seem to encounter it most often in discussions about race. Afrosapiens is clearly intelligent and adept with both words and statistics. It’s just that at some point even those are insufficient to prove certain assertions (although a good lawyer might be able to convince some people). I think one might be able to notice a correlation between that inability and the truth status of those assertions. I wonder if that correlation is causative in one direction or the other.

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  80. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    You're the salty one here.

    There is plenty of saltiness to go around here. This is much less personal to me than it is to you though, which is an important difference.

    Read More
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  81. res says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Yeah, “produces” in the sense of manufactures. Honda produced in the sense that it designed them and manufactured them, and they proved far better than anyone else’s on the market at the time.

    Don't say it like motorcycles were high tech at that time. Just because they conceived them doesn't mean they added significant technological content to them, they were just cheap. Why are we talking about Japan like it went from African level development to an advanced economy overnight and with similar challenges?

    Just because they conceived them doesn’t mean they added significant technological content to them, they were just cheap.

    For someone who claims to be economically and historically (and I am sure many other competencies) literate it is odd that you missed out on the Japanese motorcycle and auto industry progression from cheap to world beating. In particular, I think the Japanese approach to quality revolutionized world manufacturing (with an important assist from Deming, an American).

    Why are we talking about Japan like it went from African level development to an advanced economy overnight and with similar challenges?

    Because we are not. See my scale of technological competence comment above. I think your denigration of cheap Japanese motorcycles is an important clue for why Africa seems to always slip and fall on the first few steps of the ladder of technological competence.

    Afroapologism is fun to watch. But tedious to engage with.

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  82. FKA Max says:
    @Afrosapiens
    "I sense a range of problems with your method, which ironically enough would cause you to underestimate the IQ of Sierra Leone."

    What's ironical? My estimates lowers the IQs on some black countries that Lynn estimated higher. Racial considerations are not included in my Excel functions. And my estimate of Sierra Leone's IQ is 69.

    "They have a shortage of teachers. In many poor countries, education is at a premium."

    Hence my estimate of 69.

    "You are justifying your methodology with better correlations, but that is precisely the quasi-religious behaviour of which you accuse others. Your measurements must first be valid on separate grounds, before your correlations can carry significance. "

    Well, given that they wrote whole books claiming IQ correlates with these variables, the fact that my correlations are stronger and more consistent makes me rationally think that my numbers are better. My numbers are not telling a very different story from Lynn's, it actually tells the same story, without the anomalies that no one cared to explain before, and the explanation is straightforward: fraud.

    "Richer countries can afford more education, get the deficient education in North America on a high school level compares poorly to what South Africa had prior to so-called “outcomes based education,” despite lacking calculus—we had rigorous mathematical reasoning instead."

    Can you rephrase this part?

    "Your estimate of IQ might not be correlated with murder, but that does not carry the significance that you imagine."

    It does, and Lynn's IQs have a low (inconsistent) correlation with homicide.

    "Since the ongoing Al Qaeda NATO terrorist occupation is now 13 years old, we can ask: did Haiti’s IQ reduce substantially due to the reduced schooling, that your hypothesis would require? I suspect not."

    Adult education accounts for half my final score, so the effect would be moderated. But see, some studies says IQ is lower during school holidays, so a sudden drop in enrollment could result in a drop in actual IQ.

    But in order to avoid these cases that make statistical noise , I calculated correlations from the 20 most populous countries of the world (only the Congo was at war). So the superiority of my estimates to Lynn's is validated for 70% of the world's population.

    "What you are doing is avoiding looking at real issues. Excluding Africa, in usual methodologies that you dismiss, there is a connection between IQ and crime, which can be understood quite readily as due to lead poisoning."

    No, the way I made sense of the null IQ-crime correlation at international level is that it is more related to inequality within a country. Crime may be linked to IQ between individuals within a country but not between countries. Also, policing, incarceration rates, drug trade routes, characteristics of criminal activity play a role. In some countries, most homicide is domestic violence, in others it is senseless disputes, war, crowd justice, gangs, mafias, infanticide... The correlation might be low just because "homicide" happens in a variety of contexts. I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn't show up.

    I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.

    This might be the explanation:

    Personally, I believe that the MAOA gene is more important and has more of an effect on the functioning or non-functioning of a society than “just” IQ. It just happens to be, that many of the lower-IQ societies also happen to have a higher number of low-activity MAOA carriers, and most IQ researchers do not control for that, and attribute all those nations’ “shortcomings” just to IQ, when the “real” explanation is a combination of lack of impulse control (low-activity MAOA) and (low) IQ, IMO
    [...]
    For instance, low IQ does not increase violent tendencies in men with MAOA-4R, but it does in men with MAOA-3R.

    http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/scientists-rediscover-violence-gene.html
    [...]
    So the perfect violence soup is low MAO-A, social isolation, high testosterone, being poor and having a low IQ.[...] The 2R version, which produces the least MAO-A, is found in 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men. – https://selfhacked.com/2014/12/07/about-mao-a-and-what-to-do-if-you-have-the-warrior-gene/

    http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    I hope your article will be accepted.

    Keep us updated and good luck!

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    Has anyone rendered the MAOA genetics across groups into a metric we could use for numerical analysis? Has anyone done such an analysis?

    Perhaps a weighted average (weight by perceived violence of each?) of the allele frequencies?
    , @Afrosapiens

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?
     
    You're welcome, I haven't yet submitted my article, there are still a couple more data I want to add and relationships I want to test.

    Keep us updated and good luck!
     
    Sure, thanks again.
    , @Afrosapiens
    Well, in fact I tested the correlation between homicide world regions just after I calculated the one with IQ:

    https://i.imgur.com/rCFbzZ4.png

    Only Asia and the Americas show something meaningful but still moderate.
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  83. res says:
    @FKA Max

    I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.
     
    This might be the explanation:

    Personally, I believe that the MAOA gene is more important and has more of an effect on the functioning or non-functioning of a society than “just” IQ. It just happens to be, that many of the lower-IQ societies also happen to have a higher number of low-activity MAOA carriers, and most IQ researchers do not control for that, and attribute all those nations’ “shortcomings” just to IQ, when the “real” explanation is a combination of lack of impulse control (low-activity MAOA) and (low) IQ, IMO
    [...]
    For instance, low IQ does not increase violent tendencies in men with MAOA-4R, but it does in men with MAOA-3R.

    – http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/scientists-rediscover-violence-gene.html
    [...]
    So the perfect violence soup is low MAO-A, social isolation, high testosterone, being poor and having a low IQ.[...] The 2R version, which produces the least MAO-A, is found in 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men. - https://selfhacked.com/2014/12/07/about-mao-a-and-what-to-do-if-you-have-the-warrior-gene/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    I hope your article will be accepted.

    Keep us updated and good luck!

    Has anyone rendered the MAOA genetics across groups into a metric we could use for numerical analysis? Has anyone done such an analysis?

    Perhaps a weighted average (weight by perceived violence of each?) of the allele frequencies?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens

    Thanks. That explains a lot. Law has a great deal of words, words, words trying to advocate for things that aren’t really true (any resemblance with your comments is strictly coincidental of course).
     
    Hahahah! Basic stereotype, like everything you've said so far. It seems the more clueless you are about something, the more you like to ridicule yourself talking about it.

    Engineering is more about trying to understand and work with reality (similarly with science).
     
    Something you seem perfectly unable to. Get another job my friend.

    Just keep telling yourself that. I notice you did not address my other examples (nuclear subs, Concorde).
     
    Oh, sorry I thought you would understand that what is true for warships was also true for similar high tech products.

    Telling other people what they think is offensive. What makes you think you know my underlying beliefs and desires better than I do?
     
    Because generally, when we wish something, we tend to be optimistic about it. And when we don't wish something, we do anything to convince ourselves that it can't happen.

    It sure seemed to be needed given your ridiculous assertion. I am looking forward to seeing that Nigerian supersonic passenger jet.
     
    I similarly want to see a Korean one. By the way, I bet you know it was a commercial failure, and that the whole concept of supersonic jets is sort of shunned now.

    Compared to virtually all countries outside of Africa. As shown by your link. But Nigeria at 60% literacy (with how many years of average education?!) compares favorably to Niger at 19%.
     
    Nigeria's mean years of education: 6

    Get all the data you want here: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/NGA
    Niger: IQ58 on my list btw.

    Nigeria does better than Pakistan however. How would you explain that? As well as the sex gaps that bring the averages down?

    Well, in this case it would be the PISA scores except Nigeria can’t seem to even manage to get that done. The paucity of real data like this in Africa is a problem in making accurate assessments. But I am pretty sure the lack of data does not indicate excellence.
     
    I don't really remember saying test scores would be excellent, once again. don't you think they have other things to do than taking part in PISA?

    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    Is my English so bad that you're systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it's like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.

    It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    I always like to help people in need. You compare countries which have similar history. For instance, Nigeria has had like 1 coup every ten years for about half a century. You compare Nigeria with a country that has 250 ethnic groups competing for power. You compare Nigeria with a country that had no manufacturing whatsoever at independence. In short, you compare Nigeria with the Congo, Angola or Ethiopia. Like I would compare France with Germany, Britain, Italy and not Japan nor even the United States.

    Now let me ask you: why aren't you a multi-billionaire and president of the United States? Is it because you're dumb or because your life history didn't give you the best chances to achieve that?

    NO! I am observing that starting from a similar base (actually, Nigeria was ahead of China in per capita GDP for decades) China’s GDP has soared while Nigeria’s has not. The question we are left to explain is why.
     
    What similar base? This GDP per capita was mostly made of oil, it only helped to create a culture of corruption, and was the cause of the Biafra war.

    It's very sad to notice that apart from repeating the same thing about China's growth, and supposedly similar starting point, you have not tried to compare the history of both countries during this period, I'm sure you haven't even read a few paragraphs on wikipedia.

    I contend that average IQ is a likely reason and Lynn’s IQ estimates explain that better than yours do.
     
    Completly religious logic. You see two growth patterns, you want to know why they differ, so you don't ask yourself what did happen in those countries during this time period. Has the Nigerian government tried to implement the same policies? What issues were these countries dealing with? Were they as similar as I think? What were the components of their economies?

    Nope, you ask nothing because you have an explanation coming from heaven: IQ. And when faced with plain cold numbers, you're just like a fervent believer, no matter if they're more consistent with the reality, god never lies. Get a new job Mr. Engineer.

    There are many possible bases for comparison. One basis is aspirational. For example, trying to find an area that was similar by some measure (say development level) in the past and went on to success and try to understand if that success can be emulated. One basis is broadly comparative. For example, look at all countries and try to assess similarities and differences and possible causative factors along with ones place in any number of orderings. One basis is narrow comparison. I think the last is commonly done to assess “how am I doing?” In my experience losers compare themselves to the mediocre and thump their chests. Winners compare themselves to the successful and aspire to emulate that.
     
    This is utterly retarded. First, there is one thing that few countries will be eager to emulate about China: her dictatorship. Secondly, each single country has its own challenges. France can't turn its economy German, unless it becomes a dictatorship which is obsessed with turning France into Latin Germany. France couldn't even reproduce its periods of high growth, because things are not the same anymore. Things are never "the same". So if I want to compare two countries, I compare what they are now, and not the difference with what they used to be. when

    I see two countries with the same GDP/Capita but a different literacy rate, I ask if one is spending more money on education. if one has a different growth rate, I analyze competitiveness factors like taxes, productivity, currency policy instead of saying one is just smarter than the other. But you know what, you gave me an idea, I will try to see the correlation between IQ and GDP growth since 1960.

    I had not realized the Africa-Korea comparison was so disliked these days. This helped me understand the strength of reaction I am getting:
     
    No, no one cares about it, these historians are right though. No African country is or has ever been in the situation of Korea. Just one thing, Korea has never had endemic malaria for instance.

    What is up with the style of argumentation attempting to establish a position of (imagined) expertise relative to me by denigration (e.g. my “economic illiteracy”)? Is that a black thing, or a lawyer thing, or ?
     
    I don't know, what is a black thing or a lawyer thing?

    Afrosapiens is clearly intelligent and adept with both words and statistics. It’s just that at some point even those are insufficient to prove certain assertions (although a good lawyer might be able to convince some people). I think one might be able to notice a correlation between that inability and the truth status of those assertions. I wonder if that correlation is causative in one direction or the other.
     
    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we're gonna talk about me? Because you can't talk about the facts?

    There is plenty of saltiness to go around here. This is much less personal to me than it is to you though, which is an important difference.
     
    You think so? Then if it's not personal, why are you out of control right now?

    For someone who claims to be economically and historically (and I am sure many other competencies) literate it is odd that you missed out on the Japanese motorcycle and auto industry progression from cheap to world beating.
     
    We were talking about the 1960s.

    See my scale of technological competence comment above. I think your denigration of cheap Japanese motorcycles is an important clue for why Africa seems to always slip and fall on the first few steps of the ladder of technological competence.
     
    No, you know what, we've been talking a lot about Nigeria, well they have a space program currently. I hope you're very old and that you won't see the day when some African technology that you can deem respectable comes out because it'll be painful. I'm not wishing your death though, don't get me wrong. You always get me wrong. You get everything wrong.

    Afroapologism is fun to watch. But tedious to engage with.
     
    No buddy, you're not having fun. It's a long and painful conversation for you. And as your blockquotes get smaller, your words get more bitter.
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  84. @res
    Has anyone rendered the MAOA genetics across groups into a metric we could use for numerical analysis? Has anyone done such an analysis?

    Perhaps a weighted average (weight by perceived violence of each?) of the allele frequencies?

    Thanks. That explains a lot. Law has a great deal of words, words, words trying to advocate for things that aren’t really true (any resemblance with your comments is strictly coincidental of course).

    Hahahah! Basic stereotype, like everything you’ve said so far. It seems the more clueless you are about something, the more you like to ridicule yourself talking about it.

    Engineering is more about trying to understand and work with reality (similarly with science).

    Something you seem perfectly unable to. Get another job my friend.

    Just keep telling yourself that. I notice you did not address my other examples (nuclear subs, Concorde).

    Oh, sorry I thought you would understand that what is true for warships was also true for similar high tech products.

    Telling other people what they think is offensive. What makes you think you know my underlying beliefs and desires better than I do?

    Because generally, when we wish something, we tend to be optimistic about it. And when we don’t wish something, we do anything to convince ourselves that it can’t happen.

    It sure seemed to be needed given your ridiculous assertion. I am looking forward to seeing that Nigerian supersonic passenger jet.

    I similarly want to see a Korean one. By the way, I bet you know it was a commercial failure, and that the whole concept of supersonic jets is sort of shunned now.

    Compared to virtually all countries outside of Africa. As shown by your link. But Nigeria at 60% literacy (with how many years of average education?!) compares favorably to Niger at 19%.

    Nigeria’s mean years of education: 6

    Get all the data you want here: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/NGA
    Niger: IQ58 on my list btw.

    Nigeria does better than Pakistan however. How would you explain that? As well as the sex gaps that bring the averages down?

    Well, in this case it would be the PISA scores except Nigeria can’t seem to even manage to get that done. The paucity of real data like this in Africa is a problem in making accurate assessments. But I am pretty sure the lack of data does not indicate excellence.

    I don’t really remember saying test scores would be excellent, once again. don’t you think they have other things to do than taking part in PISA?

    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.

    Is my English so bad that you’re systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it’s like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.

    It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.

    I always like to help people in need. You compare countries which have similar history. For instance, Nigeria has had like 1 coup every ten years for about half a century. You compare Nigeria with a country that has 250 ethnic groups competing for power. You compare Nigeria with a country that had no manufacturing whatsoever at independence. In short, you compare Nigeria with the Congo, Angola or Ethiopia. Like I would compare France with Germany, Britain, Italy and not Japan nor even the United States.

    Now let me ask you: why aren’t you a multi-billionaire and president of the United States? Is it because you’re dumb or because your life history didn’t give you the best chances to achieve that?

    NO! I am observing that starting from a similar base (actually, Nigeria was ahead of China in per capita GDP for decades) China’s GDP has soared while Nigeria’s has not. The question we are left to explain is why.

    What similar base? This GDP per capita was mostly made of oil, it only helped to create a culture of corruption, and was the cause of the Biafra war.

    It’s very sad to notice that apart from repeating the same thing about China’s growth, and supposedly similar starting point, you have not tried to compare the history of both countries during this period, I’m sure you haven’t even read a few paragraphs on wikipedia.

    I contend that average IQ is a likely reason and Lynn’s IQ estimates explain that better than yours do.

    Completly religious logic. You see two growth patterns, you want to know why they differ, so you don’t ask yourself what did happen in those countries during this time period. Has the Nigerian government tried to implement the same policies? What issues were these countries dealing with? Were they as similar as I think? What were the components of their economies?

    Nope, you ask nothing because you have an explanation coming from heaven: IQ. And when faced with plain cold numbers, you’re just like a fervent believer, no matter if they’re more consistent with the reality, god never lies. Get a new job Mr. Engineer.

    There are many possible bases for comparison. One basis is aspirational. For example, trying to find an area that was similar by some measure (say development level) in the past and went on to success and try to understand if that success can be emulated. One basis is broadly comparative. For example, look at all countries and try to assess similarities and differences and possible causative factors along with ones place in any number of orderings. One basis is narrow comparison. I think the last is commonly done to assess “how am I doing?” In my experience losers compare themselves to the mediocre and thump their chests. Winners compare themselves to the successful and aspire to emulate that.

    This is utterly retarded. First, there is one thing that few countries will be eager to emulate about China: her dictatorship. Secondly, each single country has its own challenges. France can’t turn its economy German, unless it becomes a dictatorship which is obsessed with turning France into Latin Germany. France couldn’t even reproduce its periods of high growth, because things are not the same anymore. Things are never “the same”. So if I want to compare two countries, I compare what they are now, and not the difference with what they used to be. when

    I see two countries with the same GDP/Capita but a different literacy rate, I ask if one is spending more money on education. if one has a different growth rate, I analyze competitiveness factors like taxes, productivity, currency policy instead of saying one is just smarter than the other. But you know what, you gave me an idea, I will try to see the correlation between IQ and GDP growth since 1960.

    I had not realized the Africa-Korea comparison was so disliked these days. This helped me understand the strength of reaction I am getting:

    No, no one cares about it, these historians are right though. No African country is or has ever been in the situation of Korea. Just one thing, Korea has never had endemic malaria for instance.

    What is up with the style of argumentation attempting to establish a position of (imagined) expertise relative to me by denigration (e.g. my “economic illiteracy”)? Is that a black thing, or a lawyer thing, or ?

    I don’t know, what is a black thing or a lawyer thing?

    Afrosapiens is clearly intelligent and adept with both words and statistics. It’s just that at some point even those are insufficient to prove certain assertions (although a good lawyer might be able to convince some people). I think one might be able to notice a correlation between that inability and the truth status of those assertions. I wonder if that correlation is causative in one direction or the other.

    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we’re gonna talk about me? Because you can’t talk about the facts?

    There is plenty of saltiness to go around here. This is much less personal to me than it is to you though, which is an important difference.

    You think so? Then if it’s not personal, why are you out of control right now?

    For someone who claims to be economically and historically (and I am sure many other competencies) literate it is odd that you missed out on the Japanese motorcycle and auto industry progression from cheap to world beating.

    We were talking about the 1960s.

    See my scale of technological competence comment above. I think your denigration of cheap Japanese motorcycles is an important clue for why Africa seems to always slip and fall on the first few steps of the ladder of technological competence.

    No, you know what, we’ve been talking a lot about Nigeria, well they have a space program currently. I hope you’re very old and that you won’t see the day when some African technology that you can deem respectable comes out because it’ll be painful. I’m not wishing your death though, don’t get me wrong. You always get me wrong. You get everything wrong.

    Afroapologism is fun to watch. But tedious to engage with.

    No buddy, you’re not having fun. It’s a long and painful conversation for you. And as your blockquotes get smaller, your words get more bitter.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res


    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    Is my English so bad that you’re systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it’s like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.
     
    Let's compare that to your actual words in comment 66 (emphasis mine):

    Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then. And Nigeria’s GDP per capita is higher than 1970s France in constant prices. But the French have taken off so high that Nigeria still appears small in relation to France and they couldn’t competitively export anything that made the backbone of France’s industry back in the days.
     
    Notice the difference? I guess "we could do it but choose not to" is a compelling argument in your world. Why can't Nigeria produce for internal consumption? I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39186727
    In the capital in 2017 no less!

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.

    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we’re gonna talk about me?
     
    So that's how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. "economic illiteracy").

    You think so? Then if it’s not personal, why are you out of control right now?
     
    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

    Let's talk about that Nigerian space program a bit. Here's some background: http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/03/nigeria_s_ambitious_space_program_is_held_back_by_terrestrial_politics.html
    Notice how it has been "thwarted" (oh the Afroapologism, always someone else's fault).

    This excerpt gives a decent idea about the status:

    Nigeria hopes to launch from home territory in the near future, but experts decry the near total absence of necessary infrastructure to achieve this. Overall, the NSP has faced serious problems in recent years. Those heady early days of Nigeria’s space endeavors were bolstered by the influx of petrodollars into the Nigerian economy. Since then, declines in Nigeria’s oil revenue and a stubborn economic recession have toned down the program’s profile, giving way to a quieter atmosphere of scientific inquiry and cooperation as well as research and application. It has had some significant challenges along the way as well. Many in the country are still rankled by the memories of an expensive false start in NigComSat-1, the nation’s first high-end communication satellite, which launched into orbit in collaboration with the Chinese in 2007. It was designed to work for five years but ended up lasting for only 18 months.
     
    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn't it be cheaper to just buy satellites?). Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion (cf. Japanese cheap motorcycles). I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it's satisfying to talk about your space program.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the "necessary infrastructure" mentioned above.
    http://www.businessdayonline.com/addressing-nigerias-infrastructure-deficit/
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  85. @FKA Max

    I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.
     
    This might be the explanation:

    Personally, I believe that the MAOA gene is more important and has more of an effect on the functioning or non-functioning of a society than “just” IQ. It just happens to be, that many of the lower-IQ societies also happen to have a higher number of low-activity MAOA carriers, and most IQ researchers do not control for that, and attribute all those nations’ “shortcomings” just to IQ, when the “real” explanation is a combination of lack of impulse control (low-activity MAOA) and (low) IQ, IMO
    [...]
    For instance, low IQ does not increase violent tendencies in men with MAOA-4R, but it does in men with MAOA-3R.

    – http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/scientists-rediscover-violence-gene.html
    [...]
    So the perfect violence soup is low MAO-A, social isolation, high testosterone, being poor and having a low IQ.[...] The 2R version, which produces the least MAO-A, is found in 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men. - https://selfhacked.com/2014/12/07/about-mao-a-and-what-to-do-if-you-have-the-warrior-gene/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    I hope your article will be accepted.

    Keep us updated and good luck!

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    You’re welcome, I haven’t yet submitted my article, there are still a couple more data I want to add and relationships I want to test.

    Keep us updated and good luck!

    Sure, thanks again.

    Read More
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  86. @FKA Max

    I admit I was surprised of this correlation because I had expected a relationship (around 0.4) but it didn’t show up.
     
    This might be the explanation:

    Personally, I believe that the MAOA gene is more important and has more of an effect on the functioning or non-functioning of a society than “just” IQ. It just happens to be, that many of the lower-IQ societies also happen to have a higher number of low-activity MAOA carriers, and most IQ researchers do not control for that, and attribute all those nations’ “shortcomings” just to IQ, when the “real” explanation is a combination of lack of impulse control (low-activity MAOA) and (low) IQ, IMO
    [...]
    For instance, low IQ does not increase violent tendencies in men with MAOA-4R, but it does in men with MAOA-3R.

    – http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2012/12/scientists-rediscover-violence-gene.html
    [...]
    So the perfect violence soup is low MAO-A, social isolation, high testosterone, being poor and having a low IQ.[...] The 2R version, which produces the least MAO-A, is found in 5.5% of Black men, 0.1% of Caucasian men, and 0.00067% of Asian men. - https://selfhacked.com/2014/12/07/about-mao-a-and-what-to-do-if-you-have-the-warrior-gene/
     
    - http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    You nicely updated the article. Thank you for that. Did you submit it to the Unz Review yet, to be considered for publication?

    I hope your article will be accepted.

    Keep us updated and good luck!

    Well, in fact I tested the correlation between homicide world regions just after I calculated the one with IQ:

    Only Asia and the Americas show something meaningful but still moderate.

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    • Replies: @FKA Max

    Only Asia and the Americas show something meaningful but still moderate.
     
    This data might be important to consider in this context:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#/media/File:Map_of_world_by_intentional_homicide_rate-fixplcz.svg

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country#/media/File:Capital_punishment_in_the_world.svg

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country
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  87. FKA Max says:
    @Afrosapiens
    Well, in fact I tested the correlation between homicide world regions just after I calculated the one with IQ:

    https://i.imgur.com/rCFbzZ4.png

    Only Asia and the Americas show something meaningful but still moderate.
    Read More
    • Replies: @FKA Max
    This New York Times article from 1983 illustrates well how fragile the social order in China is:


    Capital punishment, a subject of emotional debate in Western society, continues virtually unchallenged in China. With good reason, it might seem. The weekly newspaper, China's Legal System, reported last week that the national crime rate fell in the past two months to its lowest level in years, following the increased use of tougher penalties including the death sentence. According to the report, recorded crimes dropped 46.7 percent from August to September and another 11.5 percent from September to October.
    [...]
    A new criminal code put into effect in 1980 reduced the number of capital offenses. At the same time, however, China's crime rate started increasing, as restless young people from the countryside sneaked into the cities to live illegally without jobs or money. The Government, which once declared crime a capitalist phenomenon, decided to strike back. In September of last year, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress extended the death penalty to include 29 offenses. The Standing Committee also reduced the appeal time to three days
    [...]
    That crackdown was the first retreat from a new order that had envisioned the successful reform of recalcitrant lawbreakers.
    [...]
    Liu Fuzhi, the Minister of Public Security, told the Standing Committee that ''to punish severely and promptly, according to law, those criminals guilty of serious offenses is of paramount importance in achieving the goal of maintaining a comprehensive social order.''
     
    - http://www.nytimes.com/1983/11/20/weekinreview/crime-and-capital-punishment-in-china.html?mcubz=0

    Currently, 55 types of crime are punishable by death in China according to Wikipedia:

    On 25 February 2011 China's newly revised Criminal Law reduced the number of crimes punishable by death by 13, from 68 to 55.[149]
     
    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country#Asia-Pacific_2

    There is not that much difference between Western and Asian IQs, but the difference in the frequency of the low(er)-activity MAOA (3R) allele between those two races is quite significant, and I posit the reason why Western/White societies are less corrupt, etc. than Asian societies
    [...]
    of the participants, 59% of Black men, 54% of Chinese men, 56% of Maori men, and 34% of Caucasian men carried the 3R allele
     
    - http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    What many naive Westerners, who have not done any research into these matters, don't understand is, that in order to maintain the social order and civilization in general in societies and regions of the world that contain and are inhabited by large groups of low-activity MAOA carriers, it requires harsh and swift punishments for even minor crimes to deter potential criminals, otherwise these societies and regions would drown in chaos and violence. At the same time letting people from these high-frequency low-activity MAOA regions and cultures move to the West invariably means that the West either will drown in chaos and violence if it maintains its mild punishments for crimes or that it has to become just as authoritarian and harsh as most other societies in the rest of the world.
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  88. res says:
    @Afrosapiens

    Thanks. That explains a lot. Law has a great deal of words, words, words trying to advocate for things that aren’t really true (any resemblance with your comments is strictly coincidental of course).
     
    Hahahah! Basic stereotype, like everything you've said so far. It seems the more clueless you are about something, the more you like to ridicule yourself talking about it.

    Engineering is more about trying to understand and work with reality (similarly with science).
     
    Something you seem perfectly unable to. Get another job my friend.

    Just keep telling yourself that. I notice you did not address my other examples (nuclear subs, Concorde).
     
    Oh, sorry I thought you would understand that what is true for warships was also true for similar high tech products.

    Telling other people what they think is offensive. What makes you think you know my underlying beliefs and desires better than I do?
     
    Because generally, when we wish something, we tend to be optimistic about it. And when we don't wish something, we do anything to convince ourselves that it can't happen.

    It sure seemed to be needed given your ridiculous assertion. I am looking forward to seeing that Nigerian supersonic passenger jet.
     
    I similarly want to see a Korean one. By the way, I bet you know it was a commercial failure, and that the whole concept of supersonic jets is sort of shunned now.

    Compared to virtually all countries outside of Africa. As shown by your link. But Nigeria at 60% literacy (with how many years of average education?!) compares favorably to Niger at 19%.
     
    Nigeria's mean years of education: 6

    Get all the data you want here: http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/NGA
    Niger: IQ58 on my list btw.

    Nigeria does better than Pakistan however. How would you explain that? As well as the sex gaps that bring the averages down?

    Well, in this case it would be the PISA scores except Nigeria can’t seem to even manage to get that done. The paucity of real data like this in Africa is a problem in making accurate assessments. But I am pretty sure the lack of data does not indicate excellence.
     
    I don't really remember saying test scores would be excellent, once again. don't you think they have other things to do than taking part in PISA?

    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    Is my English so bad that you're systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it's like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.

    It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    I always like to help people in need. You compare countries which have similar history. For instance, Nigeria has had like 1 coup every ten years for about half a century. You compare Nigeria with a country that has 250 ethnic groups competing for power. You compare Nigeria with a country that had no manufacturing whatsoever at independence. In short, you compare Nigeria with the Congo, Angola or Ethiopia. Like I would compare France with Germany, Britain, Italy and not Japan nor even the United States.

    Now let me ask you: why aren't you a multi-billionaire and president of the United States? Is it because you're dumb or because your life history didn't give you the best chances to achieve that?

    NO! I am observing that starting from a similar base (actually, Nigeria was ahead of China in per capita GDP for decades) China’s GDP has soared while Nigeria’s has not. The question we are left to explain is why.
     
    What similar base? This GDP per capita was mostly made of oil, it only helped to create a culture of corruption, and was the cause of the Biafra war.

    It's very sad to notice that apart from repeating the same thing about China's growth, and supposedly similar starting point, you have not tried to compare the history of both countries during this period, I'm sure you haven't even read a few paragraphs on wikipedia.

    I contend that average IQ is a likely reason and Lynn’s IQ estimates explain that better than yours do.
     
    Completly religious logic. You see two growth patterns, you want to know why they differ, so you don't ask yourself what did happen in those countries during this time period. Has the Nigerian government tried to implement the same policies? What issues were these countries dealing with? Were they as similar as I think? What were the components of their economies?

    Nope, you ask nothing because you have an explanation coming from heaven: IQ. And when faced with plain cold numbers, you're just like a fervent believer, no matter if they're more consistent with the reality, god never lies. Get a new job Mr. Engineer.

    There are many possible bases for comparison. One basis is aspirational. For example, trying to find an area that was similar by some measure (say development level) in the past and went on to success and try to understand if that success can be emulated. One basis is broadly comparative. For example, look at all countries and try to assess similarities and differences and possible causative factors along with ones place in any number of orderings. One basis is narrow comparison. I think the last is commonly done to assess “how am I doing?” In my experience losers compare themselves to the mediocre and thump their chests. Winners compare themselves to the successful and aspire to emulate that.
     
    This is utterly retarded. First, there is one thing that few countries will be eager to emulate about China: her dictatorship. Secondly, each single country has its own challenges. France can't turn its economy German, unless it becomes a dictatorship which is obsessed with turning France into Latin Germany. France couldn't even reproduce its periods of high growth, because things are not the same anymore. Things are never "the same". So if I want to compare two countries, I compare what they are now, and not the difference with what they used to be. when

    I see two countries with the same GDP/Capita but a different literacy rate, I ask if one is spending more money on education. if one has a different growth rate, I analyze competitiveness factors like taxes, productivity, currency policy instead of saying one is just smarter than the other. But you know what, you gave me an idea, I will try to see the correlation between IQ and GDP growth since 1960.

    I had not realized the Africa-Korea comparison was so disliked these days. This helped me understand the strength of reaction I am getting:
     
    No, no one cares about it, these historians are right though. No African country is or has ever been in the situation of Korea. Just one thing, Korea has never had endemic malaria for instance.

    What is up with the style of argumentation attempting to establish a position of (imagined) expertise relative to me by denigration (e.g. my “economic illiteracy”)? Is that a black thing, or a lawyer thing, or ?
     
    I don't know, what is a black thing or a lawyer thing?

    Afrosapiens is clearly intelligent and adept with both words and statistics. It’s just that at some point even those are insufficient to prove certain assertions (although a good lawyer might be able to convince some people). I think one might be able to notice a correlation between that inability and the truth status of those assertions. I wonder if that correlation is causative in one direction or the other.
     
    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we're gonna talk about me? Because you can't talk about the facts?

    There is plenty of saltiness to go around here. This is much less personal to me than it is to you though, which is an important difference.
     
    You think so? Then if it's not personal, why are you out of control right now?

    For someone who claims to be economically and historically (and I am sure many other competencies) literate it is odd that you missed out on the Japanese motorcycle and auto industry progression from cheap to world beating.
     
    We were talking about the 1960s.

    See my scale of technological competence comment above. I think your denigration of cheap Japanese motorcycles is an important clue for why Africa seems to always slip and fall on the first few steps of the ladder of technological competence.
     
    No, you know what, we've been talking a lot about Nigeria, well they have a space program currently. I hope you're very old and that you won't see the day when some African technology that you can deem respectable comes out because it'll be painful. I'm not wishing your death though, don't get me wrong. You always get me wrong. You get everything wrong.

    Afroapologism is fun to watch. But tedious to engage with.
     
    No buddy, you're not having fun. It's a long and painful conversation for you. And as your blockquotes get smaller, your words get more bitter.

    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.

    Is my English so bad that you’re systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it’s like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.

    Let’s compare that to your actual words in comment 66 (emphasis mine):

    Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then. And Nigeria’s GDP per capita is higher than 1970s France in constant prices. But the French have taken off so high that Nigeria still appears small in relation to France and they couldn’t competitively export anything that made the backbone of France’s industry back in the days.

    Notice the difference? I guess “we could do it but choose not to” is a compelling argument in your world. Why can’t Nigeria produce for internal consumption? I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39186727
    In the capital in 2017 no less!

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.

    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we’re gonna talk about me?

    So that’s how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. “economic illiteracy”).

    You think so? Then if it’s not personal, why are you out of control right now?

    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

    Let’s talk about that Nigerian space program a bit. Here’s some background: http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/03/nigeria_s_ambitious_space_program_is_held_back_by_terrestrial_politics.html
    Notice how it has been “thwarted” (oh the Afroapologism, always someone else’s fault).

    This excerpt gives a decent idea about the status:

    Nigeria hopes to launch from home territory in the near future, but experts decry the near total absence of necessary infrastructure to achieve this. Overall, the NSP has faced serious problems in recent years. Those heady early days of Nigeria’s space endeavors were bolstered by the influx of petrodollars into the Nigerian economy. Since then, declines in Nigeria’s oil revenue and a stubborn economic recession have toned down the program’s profile, giving way to a quieter atmosphere of scientific inquiry and cooperation as well as research and application. It has had some significant challenges along the way as well. Many in the country are still rankled by the memories of an expensive false start in NigComSat-1, the nation’s first high-end communication satellite, which launched into orbit in collaboration with the Chinese in 2007. It was designed to work for five years but ended up lasting for only 18 months.

    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn’t it be cheaper to just buy satellites?). Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion (cf. Japanese cheap motorcycles). I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it’s satisfying to talk about your space program.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the “necessary infrastructure” mentioned above.

    http://www.businessdayonline.com/addressing-nigerias-infrastructure-deficit/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens

    Notice the difference? I guess “we could do it but choose not to” is a compelling argument in your world. Why can’t Nigeria produce for internal consumption?
     
    Yes, I notice the difference and you wouldn't be bothered if you understood that technical ability is one thing, commercial pertinence is another thing. Why would you invest in outdated technology which couldn't even compete with cheaper or second-hand modern products flooding the market?

    I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway:
     
    They can totally do it if they chose to invest in such a project. Look at Korea, not your favorite one, the North Korea, they're much poorer than Nigeria, they even have famines now and then, they're talking about nuking you in case you haven't heard the news. They dedicated energy into it, I don't think it is a wise choice. But if Nigeria dedicates money and energy into a nuclear submarine project, they can do it. There is no reason they can't.

    Now speaking about maintaining infrastructure:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/03/13/the-massive-cost-of-americas-crumbling-infrastructure-infographic/#62a42d683978

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!
     
    Concorde is out of business, nuclear subs? Why would the government spend money on it? Who is Nigeria's enemy? Can you elaborate on the geopolitical context that justifies or has justified such a project?

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.
     
    There is a difference between low cost and low quality modern products, and products from another time which I'm not even sure could be produced at low cost.

    It's funny that you talk about technological ladder when everything that I show you an African country currently produces is just basic in your eyes. And you get this defensive attitude although I'm not claiming a single time that Nigeria's economy is not technologically lagging.

    So that’s how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. “economic illiteracy”).
     
    That's how I react to stupidity and dysrationalia.

    And chill out, yes you are economically illiterate, but maybe you're good at something else that you hide very well.

    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

     

    That's because I tend to quote 80% of your comments whereas you skip about the same amount of mine. I know you think it's because what I write is too stupid to even deserve your attention, but I'm afraid that everyone sees you have nothing to say that makes sense.

    Notice how it has been “thwarted”
     
    Completely paranoid, they are nowhere saying that they are being held back by forces they can't control. Do you really think all technological advances progress smoothly everywhere except in Africa?

    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn’t it be cheaper to just buy satellites?).
     
    That's your way to say it's too good for an African country, right? And what if they just want to spend a little money (It's not that expensive) now as a first step for future progress in a promising sector? Remember the technological ladder thing?

    Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion
     
    What you describe desribes better China and her burgeoning ghost towns and bridges that lead to nowhere. The difference here is that satellites are useful for a large variety of purposes, contrary to nuclear submarines.

    I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it’s satisfying to talk about your space program.
     
    "My space program"? How so. And tell me the history of China's space sprogram that, I assume, that they built on their own without any sort of foreign cooperation. Once again you can't just accept that an African country is engaging in some modern sectors that you think black can't and will never be able to master.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the “necessary infrastructure” mentioned above.
     
    Who tells you it won't be spent there? If the experts say so, they will probably take their advice, nah?
    Have you access to the budget of their agency?


    So this pointless conversation on which I'm not wasting any more time taught me that:

    -res is not racist but we can suspect he's at least a bit Nigerianophobic
    -Correlations are not reliable when they're too high and too consistent
    -We estimate the intelligence of a country from the growth rate of its GDP/capita (don't ask why)
    -Poor countries should manufacture 1950s cars to get out of poverty
    -IQ is almighty and Lynn it's prophet
    -And many more precious insights that will help everyone understand the world better

    That was very cringe-worthy.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  89. @res


    “Nigeria is the equal of 1970s France” and “comparing Nigeria with functional countries is unfair.” It would help me if you could be clear about which standard is applicable at any given moment.
     
    Is my English so bad that you’re systematically misunderstanding what I say? I said that education levels in Nigeria were similar to 1970s France but the current market conditions would not allow Nigeria to competitively produce 1970 technology: because 1970 technology is obsolete and has no market value anymore. You know it’s like launching a play-station 1 in 2017. No technological challenge, but commercially pointless.
     
    Let's compare that to your actual words in comment 66 (emphasis mine):

    Now Nigerians are more educated than the French of that time, they can manufacture every thing that the French did then. And Nigeria’s GDP per capita is higher than 1970s France in constant prices. But the French have taken off so high that Nigeria still appears small in relation to France and they couldn’t competitively export anything that made the backbone of France’s industry back in the days.
     
    Notice the difference? I guess "we could do it but choose not to" is a compelling argument in your world. Why can't Nigeria produce for internal consumption? I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39186727
    In the capital in 2017 no less!

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.

    I clearly hit a nerve. So now we’re gonna talk about me?
     
    So that's how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. "economic illiteracy").

    You think so? Then if it’s not personal, why are you out of control right now?
     
    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

    Let's talk about that Nigerian space program a bit. Here's some background: http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/03/nigeria_s_ambitious_space_program_is_held_back_by_terrestrial_politics.html
    Notice how it has been "thwarted" (oh the Afroapologism, always someone else's fault).

    This excerpt gives a decent idea about the status:

    Nigeria hopes to launch from home territory in the near future, but experts decry the near total absence of necessary infrastructure to achieve this. Overall, the NSP has faced serious problems in recent years. Those heady early days of Nigeria’s space endeavors were bolstered by the influx of petrodollars into the Nigerian economy. Since then, declines in Nigeria’s oil revenue and a stubborn economic recession have toned down the program’s profile, giving way to a quieter atmosphere of scientific inquiry and cooperation as well as research and application. It has had some significant challenges along the way as well. Many in the country are still rankled by the memories of an expensive false start in NigComSat-1, the nation’s first high-end communication satellite, which launched into orbit in collaboration with the Chinese in 2007. It was designed to work for five years but ended up lasting for only 18 months.
     
    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn't it be cheaper to just buy satellites?). Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion (cf. Japanese cheap motorcycles). I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it's satisfying to talk about your space program.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the "necessary infrastructure" mentioned above.
    http://www.businessdayonline.com/addressing-nigerias-infrastructure-deficit/

    Notice the difference? I guess “we could do it but choose not to” is a compelling argument in your world. Why can’t Nigeria produce for internal consumption?

    Yes, I notice the difference and you wouldn’t be bothered if you understood that technical ability is one thing, commercial pertinence is another thing. Why would you invest in outdated technology which couldn’t even compete with cheaper or second-hand modern products flooding the market?

    I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway:

    They can totally do it if they chose to invest in such a project. Look at Korea, not your favorite one, the North Korea, they’re much poorer than Nigeria, they even have famines now and then, they’re talking about nuking you in case you haven’t heard the news. They dedicated energy into it, I don’t think it is a wise choice. But if Nigeria dedicates money and energy into a nuclear submarine project, they can do it. There is no reason they can’t.

    Now speaking about maintaining infrastructure:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/03/13/the-massive-cost-of-americas-crumbling-infrastructure-infographic/#62a42d683978

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!

    Concorde is out of business, nuclear subs? Why would the government spend money on it? Who is Nigeria’s enemy? Can you elaborate on the geopolitical context that justifies or has justified such a project?

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.

    There is a difference between low cost and low quality modern products, and products from another time which I’m not even sure could be produced at low cost.

    It’s funny that you talk about technological ladder when everything that I show you an African country currently produces is just basic in your eyes. And you get this defensive attitude although I’m not claiming a single time that Nigeria’s economy is not technologically lagging.

    So that’s how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. “economic illiteracy”).

    That’s how I react to stupidity and dysrationalia.

    And chill out, yes you are economically illiterate, but maybe you’re good at something else that you hide very well.

    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

    That’s because I tend to quote 80% of your comments whereas you skip about the same amount of mine. I know you think it’s because what I write is too stupid to even deserve your attention, but I’m afraid that everyone sees you have nothing to say that makes sense.

    Notice how it has been “thwarted”

    Completely paranoid, they are nowhere saying that they are being held back by forces they can’t control. Do you really think all technological advances progress smoothly everywhere except in Africa?

    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn’t it be cheaper to just buy satellites?).

    That’s your way to say it’s too good for an African country, right? And what if they just want to spend a little money (It’s not that expensive) now as a first step for future progress in a promising sector? Remember the technological ladder thing?

    Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion

    What you describe desribes better China and her burgeoning ghost towns and bridges that lead to nowhere. The difference here is that satellites are useful for a large variety of purposes, contrary to nuclear submarines.

    I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it’s satisfying to talk about your space program.

    “My space program”? How so. And tell me the history of China’s space sprogram that, I assume, that they built on their own without any sort of foreign cooperation. Once again you can’t just accept that an African country is engaging in some modern sectors that you think black can’t and will never be able to master.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the “necessary infrastructure” mentioned above.

    Who tells you it won’t be spent there? If the experts say so, they will probably take their advice, nah?
    Have you access to the budget of their agency?

    So this pointless conversation on which I’m not wasting any more time taught me that:

    -res is not racist but we can suspect he’s at least a bit Nigerianophobic
    -Correlations are not reliable when they’re too high and too consistent
    -We estimate the intelligence of a country from the growth rate of its GDP/capita (don’t ask why)
    -Poor countries should manufacture 1950s cars to get out of poverty
    -IQ is almighty and Lynn it’s prophet
    -And many more precious insights that will help everyone understand the world better

    That was very cringe-worthy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res

    So this pointless conversation on which I’m not wasting any more time taught me that:
     
    LOL! I'm done too.
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  90. FKA Max says:
    @FKA Max

    Only Asia and the Americas show something meaningful but still moderate.
     
    This data might be important to consider in this context:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate#/media/File:Map_of_world_by_intentional_homicide_rate-fixplcz.svg

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country#/media/File:Capital_punishment_in_the_world.svg

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country

    This New York Times article from 1983 illustrates well how fragile the social order in China is:

    Capital punishment, a subject of emotional debate in Western society, continues virtually unchallenged in China. With good reason, it might seem. The weekly newspaper, China’s Legal System, reported last week that the national crime rate fell in the past two months to its lowest level in years, following the increased use of tougher penalties including the death sentence. According to the report, recorded crimes dropped 46.7 percent from August to September and another 11.5 percent from September to October.
    [...]
    A new criminal code put into effect in 1980 reduced the number of capital offenses. At the same time, however, China’s crime rate started increasing, as restless young people from the countryside sneaked into the cities to live illegally without jobs or money. The Government, which once declared crime a capitalist phenomenon, decided to strike back. In September of last year, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress extended the death penalty to include 29 offenses. The Standing Committee also reduced the appeal time to three days
    [...]
    That crackdown was the first retreat from a new order that had envisioned the successful reform of recalcitrant lawbreakers.
    [...]
    Liu Fuzhi, the Minister of Public Security, told the Standing Committee that ”to punish severely and promptly, according to law, those criminals guilty of serious offenses is of paramount importance in achieving the goal of maintaining a comprehensive social order.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/1983/11/20/weekinreview/crime-and-capital-punishment-in-china.html?mcubz=0

    Currently, 55 types of crime are punishable by death in China according to Wikipedia:

    On 25 February 2011 China’s newly revised Criminal Law reduced the number of crimes punishable by death by 13, from 68 to 55.[149]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_by_country#Asia-Pacific_2

    There is not that much difference between Western and Asian IQs, but the difference in the frequency of the low(er)-activity MAOA (3R) allele between those two races is quite significant, and I posit the reason why Western/White societies are less corrupt, etc. than Asian societies
    [...]
    of the participants, 59% of Black men, 54% of Chinese men, 56% of Maori men, and 34% of Caucasian men carried the 3R allele

    http://www.unz.com/comments/all/2017/01/12/?commenterfilter=FKA+Max

    What many naive Westerners, who have not done any research into these matters, don’t understand is, that in order to maintain the social order and civilization in general in societies and regions of the world that contain and are inhabited by large groups of low-activity MAOA carriers, it requires harsh and swift punishments for even minor crimes to deter potential criminals, otherwise these societies and regions would drown in chaos and violence. At the same time letting people from these high-frequency low-activity MAOA regions and cultures move to the West invariably means that the West either will drown in chaos and violence if it maintains its mild punishments for crimes or that it has to become just as authoritarian and harsh as most other societies in the rest of the world.

    Read More
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  91. res says:
    @Afrosapiens

    Notice the difference? I guess “we could do it but choose not to” is a compelling argument in your world. Why can’t Nigeria produce for internal consumption?
     
    Yes, I notice the difference and you wouldn't be bothered if you understood that technical ability is one thing, commercial pertinence is another thing. Why would you invest in outdated technology which couldn't even compete with cheaper or second-hand modern products flooding the market?

    I am just utterly floored that you think Nigeria has the ability (now) to build a nuclear sub. Especially when Nigeria has trouble properly maintaining an airport runway:
     
    They can totally do it if they chose to invest in such a project. Look at Korea, not your favorite one, the North Korea, they're much poorer than Nigeria, they even have famines now and then, they're talking about nuking you in case you haven't heard the news. They dedicated energy into it, I don't think it is a wise choice. But if Nigeria dedicates money and energy into a nuclear submarine project, they can do it. There is no reason they can't.

    Now speaking about maintaining infrastructure:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2017/03/13/the-massive-cost-of-americas-crumbling-infrastructure-infographic/#62a42d683978

    And as far as that 1970s era tech technological obsolescence is concerned: nuclear subs, Concorde?!
     
    Concorde is out of business, nuclear subs? Why would the government spend money on it? Who is Nigeria's enemy? Can you elaborate on the geopolitical context that justifies or has justified such a project?

    The funny thing about your argument here (e.g. the pointless part) is that it validates exactly the point I made about the technological ladder failure. Do you think those first Japanese motorcycles were cutting edge? You have to walk before you can run.
     
    There is a difference between low cost and low quality modern products, and products from another time which I'm not even sure could be produced at low cost.

    It's funny that you talk about technological ladder when everything that I show you an African country currently produces is just basic in your eyes. And you get this defensive attitude although I'm not claiming a single time that Nigeria's economy is not technologically lagging.

    So that’s how you react to compliments. It would be an interesting exercise to see how you would react if I wrote about you in the tone you use writing about me (e.g. “economic illiteracy”).
     
    That's how I react to stupidity and dysrationalia.

    And chill out, yes you are economically illiterate, but maybe you're good at something else that you hide very well.

    Says the man who just wrote a ranting 1600 word comment. After earlier 1100 and 1400 word ranting comments. Projection is fun.

     

    That's because I tend to quote 80% of your comments whereas you skip about the same amount of mine. I know you think it's because what I write is too stupid to even deserve your attention, but I'm afraid that everyone sees you have nothing to say that makes sense.

    Notice how it has been “thwarted”
     
    Completely paranoid, they are nowhere saying that they are being held back by forces they can't control. Do you really think all technological advances progress smoothly everywhere except in Africa?

    Looks like a vanity project to me (wouldn’t it be cheaper to just buy satellites?).
     
    That's your way to say it's too good for an African country, right? And what if they just want to spend a little money (It's not that expensive) now as a first step for future progress in a promising sector? Remember the technological ladder thing?

    Is this cargo cult economics? Create the appearance of doing something cutting edge without actually developing the underlying requisites in a sustainable fashion
     
    What you describe desribes better China and her burgeoning ghost towns and bridges that lead to nowhere. The difference here is that satellites are useful for a large variety of purposes, contrary to nuclear submarines.

    I suppose as long as you can outsource the heavy lifting to the Russians, Chinese ; ), or the UAE it’s satisfying to talk about your space program.
     
    "My space program"? How so. And tell me the history of China's space sprogram that, I assume, that they built on their own without any sort of foreign cooperation. Once again you can't just accept that an African country is engaging in some modern sectors that you think black can't and will never be able to master.

    In all sincerity that money would probably be better spent creating the “necessary infrastructure” mentioned above.
     
    Who tells you it won't be spent there? If the experts say so, they will probably take their advice, nah?
    Have you access to the budget of their agency?


    So this pointless conversation on which I'm not wasting any more time taught me that:

    -res is not racist but we can suspect he's at least a bit Nigerianophobic
    -Correlations are not reliable when they're too high and too consistent
    -We estimate the intelligence of a country from the growth rate of its GDP/capita (don't ask why)
    -Poor countries should manufacture 1950s cars to get out of poverty
    -IQ is almighty and Lynn it's prophet
    -And many more precious insights that will help everyone understand the world better

    That was very cringe-worthy.

    So this pointless conversation on which I’m not wasting any more time taught me that:

    LOL! I’m done too.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  92. Seriously, what’s the minimum requirement for getting into a French law school nowadays Panda wonders?

    …a demonstrated brain power of counting correctly well into double-digits without taking off socks? lol

    Read More
    • Replies: @Afrosapiens
    ROFL!

    Let's talk about enforcing contracts and property rights in China if you want to. You don't want to.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  93. @PandaAtWar
    Seriously, what's the minimum requirement for getting into a French law school nowadays Panda wonders?

    ...a demonstrated brain power of counting correctly well into double-digits without taking off socks? lol

    ROFL!

    Let’s talk about enforcing contracts and property rights in China if you want to. You don’t want to.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  94. @Afrosapiens
    Mr. Thompson,

    Would you like to check out my worldwide IQ estimates based on official UNO education data?

    https://notpolitcallycorrect.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/average.jpg
    https://notpoliticallycorrect.me/2017/09/05/worldwide-iq-estimates-based-on-education-data/

    Sorry that I have been so slow to respond here. I certainly saw your questions, and other matters intervened, as they so often do. This is brief note drawing attention to some comments I wrote on the complex relationship between extra years of schooling and ability. I am unsure about the claimed effects, but there is certainly supportive evidence. On the Norway school natural experiment, I would want to see a longer run of data, and do not want to rely on the “difference in difference” measure.

    http://www.unz.com/jthompson/school/

    Read More
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