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Norwegian family flynn effects

I have good memories of 1975. I got my first secure job, a Lectureship in Psychology at the Middlesex Hospital Medical School, part of the University of London. It was a glorious summer, followed the next year by an even better and drier one, and I finally finished my PhD. Little did I realise that we had reached peak intelligence, and after that it would be downhill all the way. In my defence, it takes time to notice that a peak has been passed, and all this relates to Norwegian data, but nonetheless, the endullment of Western society was underway, and any subjective concerns I had about the increasing foolishness of the world have now been amply confirmed. 1975 turns out to have been a pivotal year, and a new paper says that the reasons are within the family.

Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused
Bernt Bratsberg and Ole Rogeberg

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115

https://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718793115

Abstract

Population intelligence quotients increased throughout the 20th century—a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect—although recent years have seen a slowdown or reversal of this trend in several countries. To distinguish between the large set of proposed explanations, we categorize hypothesized causal factors by whether they accommodate the existence of within-family Flynn effects. Using administrative register data and cognitive ability scores from military conscription data covering three decades of Norwegian birth cohorts (1962–1991), we show that the observed Flynn effect, its turning point, and subsequent decline can all be fully recovered from within-family variation. The analysis controls for all factors shared by siblings and finds no evidence for prominent causal hypotheses of the decline implicating genes and environmental factors that vary between, but not within, families.

This is an interesting and quite complicated paper, which argues that because the Flynn effect is of equal magnitude in older and younger sons within the same family, then it was probably caused by unknown factors affecting all family members, and cannot have been caused by differences between families. For example, if poor families have more children, and these tend to be dull, then there will be differences between families, not within them.

The method seems to be simple: every year test the intelligence of the first born son and compare it with the intelligence of the second son within that same family, the second son of course being born and being tested some time later. If both sons show the same pattern of rising or falling intelligence, then the Flynn effect, whatever its cause, is due to things which affect all families in the same way. Clean water, good food, home computers, healthy living can boost all family member’s ability levels. Genetic differences would favour some families over others, but that is not detected in this study, so is probably unlikely.

To narrow down the set of hypotheses, we examine the extent to which we can recover observed Flynn effects from within-family variation in large-scale administrative register data covering 30 birth cohorts of Norwegian males. Within-family variation will only recover the full Flynn effect if the underlying causal factors operate within families. Notably, if within-family variation fully recovers both the timing and magnitudes of the increase and decline of cohort ability scores in the data, this effectively disproves hypotheses requiring shifts in the composition of families having children. This set of disproved hypotheses would include dysgenic fertility and compositional change from immigration, the two main explanations proposed for recent negative Flynn effects

A metareview of empirical studies argues that the positive Flynn effect relates to improved education and nutrition, combined with reduced pathogen stress. Turning to the negative Flynn effect, the metareview notes a deceleration of IQ gains in some studies and suggests that these may relate to (i) decreasing returns to environmental inputs (saturation) or (ii) the picking up of effects that cause IQ decreases and may ultimately reverse the Flynn effect, such as dysgenic fertility. Dysgenic fertility is also the favored hypothesis in a recent literature review on reversed Flynn effects, where the authors conclude that dysgenic trends are the simplest explanation for the negative Flynn effect. A negative intelligence–fertility gradient is hypothesized to have been disguised by a positive environmental Flynn effect, revealing itself in data only once the ceiling of the Flynn effect was reached.

So, this paper confirms what was already known, that the secular rise in intelligence test scores has already given way to a fall in those scores (with perhaps a slight rise again?), but attempts to rule out a whole set of possible explanations, saying that there is no need for them. The full effect can be shown to operate within families.Hence the authors’s view of the significance of their findings.

Using administrative register data with information on family relationships and cognitive ability for three decades of Norwegian male birth cohorts, we show that the increase, turning point, and decline of the Flynn effect can be recovered from within-family variation in intelligence scores. This establishes that the large changes in average cohort intelligence reflect environmental factors and not changing composition of parents, which in turn rules out several prominent hypotheses for retrograde Flynn effects.

Now for the detail. These are conscription data for young men. No reason to believe young women would be different. The authors report that the family average tracks the pattern of the first born pretty well. However, as the years went by, lower scoring first borns were unlikely to have had younger brothers who were tested themselves, and this requires a correction factor to be applied. Although the correction for this selection bias is carefully done, it introduces some uncertainty to the estimates, though the authors see this as well within reasonable limits. The authors also argue, in my view convincingly, that the reversal of the Flynn effect is so rapid that it is unlikely to be a dysgenic indicator, since such things happen between successive generation, not within one.

A salvo has been fired against genetic factors being implicated in the apparent drop in intelligence. As a note of caution, it would be good to look at whether this holds true of all components of the intelligence test: numbers, words and shapes. Anyway, the authors say that these data do not allow them to specify what causes the Flynn effect and its reversal, merely to suggest it cannot be genetics.

The strong points of the study are that it is based on conscript age data obtained on almost all Norwegian men from 1962 to 1991, and they restrict themselves to Norwegians with two Norwegian parents, so they will not be cultural or genetic confounders.

They say:

Following convention, we calculate the IQ score from the aggregate stanine score given each conscript based on three speeded tests of arithmetic (30 items), word similarities (54 items), and figures (36 items). The average IQ score from these tests rose from 99.5 for the 1962 birth cohort to 102.3 for the 1975 cohort, after which it declined to 99.4 for the 1989 cohort (then rising slightly to 99.7 for the 1991 cohort; Fig. 1A). Apart from the mathematics test changing to multiple-choice format in the beginning of the 1990s, both the test and the scoring norm were constant throughout the period. Fig. 1 B confirms that the IQ scores in our data follow the expected bell-shaped distribution.

I say: it is a pity they and others have used stanines, which lose a lot of data. This is particularly bad when the whole argument turns on very precise measures over a relatively short time period, particularly when trying to find or reject presumed dysgenic trends. I imagine from Wechsler data that the arithmetic scores would show less Flynn effect, but this is just a surmise.

The statistical method used is rather complex.

The fixed-effects estimator controls for all factors shared by siblings, the birth-order variables capture any deterioration due to within-parent factors like aging parents or favoring the firstborn, and we identify Flynn effects from the remaining variation in IQ and birth year between siblings.

This is done by a Bayesian maximum likelihood estimation which seems reasonable.

“This allows us to parametrically express the bivariate distribution across stanine score bins for any combination of sibling birth years. Some parts of this distribution will be underrepresented in the distribution of fully scored brother pairs, and a birth-year-specific scoring probability vector is identified that best allocates the partially and fully nonscored sibling pairs across this distribution. The population across-family trend for all firstborns is found by combining the cohort means for firstborns present and missing from the two-brother sample after correcting both for scoring selection.

Conclusion

This paper has made a good case that the Flynn effect (secular rise in overall intelligence test scores) has risen and fallen for reasons which are consistent within families, at least in the time period studied. Specifically, in families with the same genetics and the same care giving parents, older and younger sons show almost the same secular rise and fall in scores. There are some problems with under-sampling of younger brothers in the later years, but the corrections for this seem plausible. This makes it less likely that the causes of this rise and fall in Norway is due to dysgenics or immigration. Some factors, probably large scale social ones, have affected family members equally. Nothing in this general finding implicates a particular cause. However, this has not stopped people from assuming that it is some aspect of modern life, like using mobile phones. I see no reason to be left out from contributing to this avalanche of presumed noxious causes.

For all we know it is the malign influence of the Norwegian oil revenues. Peruvian silver puffed up and bloated the Spanish empire, and then lead to its ultimate downfall. Perhaps the Norwegians have become too rich, and as you can see, the rot set in, in…..1975!

Norwegian oil production

Even worse, these revenues have been carefully re-invested, and now account for over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.3% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. This will dampen the vigour of even the wildest Viking, and leave them in a puddle of almost Saxon ineptitude.

If the trustees of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund would like to alleviate the deleterious effects of their savings on the intellectual quality of their citizens, they can send me their excess profits, and I will altruistically take the risk of losing what remains of my wits.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Flynn Effect, IQ 
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  1. Patriot says:

    Can anyone comment as to how the age at first birth influnce offspring IQ?

    60 yrs ago White couples conceived at age 20 or below. Today they have their first baby at age 30 or later. How has that influnced population IQ?

  2. You can make a genius out of your child. People have.

    The same people who believe in scientific racism believe in rabid foam-at-the-mouth bootstrap libertarianism.

    Which is a straight-out contradiction. But they are too stupid to see it.

  3. Something comments.

    A change in population genetics might (or might not) be ruled out, but that does not mean that genes play no role.

    Norway phased in unleaded petrol in 1987, and it is not clear when they stopped selling leaded—wikipedia says 1988, yet other sources give prices per litre for leaded petrol well into the mid 1990s in Norway. Unfortunately, with large scale immigration from third world countries, crime is not dominated by the local born population, which makes it harder to test using crime as a proxy for lead poisoning among Norwegians.

    The iodisation of salt in Europe is not in a good way, either.

    • Replies: @j
  4. j says: • Website
    @Johan Meyer

    May be, but then what explains the (former, positive) Flynn effect?

    Regarding national wealth, Norwegians are comfortable since many generations. And the sovereign fund is isolated from common life. Singapur’s fantastic hoard does not affect their IQ.

    It must be the sex. Too much, too early.

    • Replies: @Johan Meyer
    , @Curle
  5. Anon[104] • Disclaimer says:

    You can make a genius out of your child. People have.

    You can drill your child from birth to have a preternatural skill at something. True. Whether that translates into higher general intellectual productivity in adulthood is a different question.

    The same people who believe in scientific racism believe in rabid foam-at-the-mouth bootstrap libertarianism.

    Meh, not really. Some do, but becoming red-pilled on the latter often disabuses you of the former.

    Much of SS Africa is a libertarian paradise but also poor and backwards. Freedom and markets are not sufficient for economic success. Brains and/or natural resources often trump a western-style market system.

    • Replies: @pyrrhus
  6. utu says:

    No so long ago we were discussing here a study from Norway that extra school year increased IQ score by over 3 pnts. It was done after the school reform that was implemented in different district at different times.

  7. utu says:

    Haven’t read the paper yet so perhaps my question is stupid. On the ordinate axis of the above 3-panel graph is “IQ difference…” IQ difference of whom? What sample are we talking about?

    • Replies: @j2
  8. anon[137] • Disclaimer says:

    You can make a genius out of your child. People have.

    Most children can be made excellent basketball players if drilled relentlessly from birth – “basketball geniuses.” That said, training being equal, a 6′ player will have an advantage over a 5’9″ player, and a population that averages 6′ will have an advantage over a population that averages 5’9.

    Just because you can (or most people can) make a ‘genius’ of a 5’9 player doesn’t mean that he’s not at an intrinsic disadvantage – or that the population from which he’s drawn isn’t at an intrinsic disadvantage. And, it doesn’t mean that genetic differences “don’t exist” or constitute “scientific racism.”

    • Replies: @phil
  9. j2 says:

    In this Norwegian sample the decline starts at 1994 (1975+18, the time of testing), while data from Finland shows decline from 1997 (1978+19, the time of testing). (Finland does not have oil, so your generous offer of solving the Norwegian IQ decline will probably not pass the state evaluation.) This means 3 years difference for the environmental factor to appear. That would indicate it might not be mobile phones, as they appeared about the same time in both countries. Norway had school reforms around 1970. Finland also started reforms 1970 and continued to 1980, but the phasing must have been a bit different. Maybe going through all environmental factors and looking for a 3 year difference could find something. Calculators, when did they start allowing them in schools?

  10. Sorry, I don’t really buy everything they say. It looks like a circular argument to me. They could be correct but they left the door wide open. What would the data look like in another country? Has anyone really done a similar study on women? To say that women would be the same without proof is rather ludicrous. What would a random analysis of different age groups of men in Northern Europe prove? This small difference in IQ points can you baseline it for different groups? Can you establish a benchmark for comparisons in a time range?

    Perhaps it’s the Norwegian Salmon. The farmed raised salmon in Norway are some of the most toxic in the world. Or perhaps these men took dumber wives!

  11. @Patriot

    You mean that younger mothers have brighter second born sons?

  12. Thank you for translating the article into English. I read the extracts at Steve Sailer’s but couldn’t work out what it actually meant!

    Patriot’s idea in #1 is interesting.

    Fortunately the far-sighted British under Mrs Thatcher chose to use the North Sea revenues more creatively, enabling thousands of teachers to take early retirement and making single motherhood a viable lifestyle choice, bringing about a major expansion of the (previously tiny) British underclass.

    I had friends working in the DSS and as social workers in that era – Mrs Thatcher may have been in office, but I’m not sure how much power she had at the benefits coalface then – they hated her and all her works.

  13. j2 says:
    @Patriot

    “Can anyone comment as to how the age at first birth influnce offspring IQ?”

    If the father’s age is over 40, the IQ of the children is in average smaller. Between ages 20 and 30 there should not be differences.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
  14. Heros says:

    Since 1975 Norwegian feminists have been scrambling to the top of the power pyramid over the bodies of the men that they cucked.

    I would bet good money that there is a very high inverse correlation between the IQ of first born sons and the amount of physical and mental cucking and abuse imposed on the father.

    These Norwegian Feminists also kept their eyes on the prize, the $1T sovereign wealth fund. Now all that money goes to pay for things like free abortions, feminist studies and child care instead of being wasted on things like good pay and retirements for oil workers risking their lives in the northern atlantic.

    • Agree: Clyde
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
  15. j2 says:
    @utu

    “On the ordinate axis of the above 3-panel graph is “IQ difference…” IQ difference of whom? What sample are we talking about?”

    It is in the paper, the IQ difference between the first and second born son.

    As a general comment, this article shows a difference in the IQ score, not in intelligence. If an IQ test stays the same and the culture develops, the IQ test becomes soon obsolete. Arithmetical tasks of fast calculating e.g. a fraction was once drilled, now kids use a calculator for the simplest tasks. The same is with vocabulary, the same words do not any more have the same familiarity. I think the decline is not from eating toxic salmon or iodised salt, but a trivial question of different experiences and skills of modern children compared to earlier ones. Freshmen do not any more know some things they used to know, but they have other advantages.

    • Replies: @utu
  16. @Patriot

    Hi – I’m one of the two authors of this study, and James asked if we had anything to add on this question.

    Age at first birth has changed over time in Norway (the average age of firstborns’ mothers declined until the early 70s and then started increasing). Since we are comparing brothers within the same family, however, a (linear) effect of maternal or paternal age would not generate a Flynn-effect within families. While we could assess the association cross-sectionally between child stanine score and maternal age, this would be a difficult comparison to interpret as the fertility rate across the lifespan likely differs by the parental IQ (see figure 6 here: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2017-020.pdf )

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  17. @j

    Lead (paint) phase out with gradual replacement of the housing stock, ionisation of salt, improved nutrition and the like, I would imagine. In western and northern Europe, salt ionisation is either not keeping up, or the population has reduced its salt intake, but there is an iodine deficiency. It might make sense to add iodine to bread again instead.

    • Replies: @Clyde
  18. Oye says:

    I just returned from a one week trip to Norway where we were in Oslo and a rural area (Valdres) further north. My impression, in talking to cousins and others is that no one has to struggle if they don’t want to. If someone chooses or is unable to work, they are paid enough to live comfortably.
    I met a farmer who owns land on the steepest of mountainsides and rents flatter land in the valley to grow hay for his sheep. This style of farming would not be viable in North America and only survives with generous government grants. They have the best in farm equipment and buildings.
    I saw migrant/refugee families shopping at well stocked grocery stores and they looked like they had just won the lottery.
    The Norwegians are very kind and seem happy but their society suffers from the same malaise that has infected most of Europe. Most people rarely have more than one or two children. Seeking diversion and personal fulfillment is the ultimate goal of most in this wealthy nation. How else could a country of five million win the winter olympics?

    • Replies: @Dutch Boy
    , @Clyde
  19. TheJester says:

    Mr. Thompson,

    I treasure your presence on the Unz Review. I am not academically or (being 70) intellectually equipped to follow the math. However, I can glean gems from the articles and comments.

    You appear to be suggesting that too much wealth can have a deleterious impact on perceived and measured IQ. This would seem to be validated in the experience of living. The history of the Spanish Empire aside, we have the more recent experience of “trust fund babies” and the alleged expectation of economic and social entitlements on the part of the Millennial generation. It is common sense to expect that being too comfortable and too complacent can dull one’s mind as well as one’s aspirations.

    I have known “trust fund babies” and the challenges of trying to motivate Millennials to aspire to something useful in life. From their perspective, why should they aspire to something useful in life? There is no need … no Darwinian necessity. Everything is really nice just the way they are.

    Take the concept of “trust fund babies” and abstract it to the level of “trust fund societies” … and it may account for the same phenomenon writ large in societies and across their populations. It’s a new and powerful “lens” for understanding and evaluating the human experience.

  20. George says:

    Is it possible that Africa will experience a Flynn effect while the Flynn effect is reversing in Europe? That might negate any advantage Europe had. How is the Flynn effect working in China and Japan? Maybe those books that try to figure out the birth death processes of ancient civilizations miss the point, civilization is explained by a sudden increase in the Flynn effect and then a decline? Taxation, technology, ect used to explain the rise and fall of civilizations are just symptoms of a change in the Flynn effect.

  21. Andy says:

    no question 1975 was the beginning of the end for Western civilization, as the following year Punk rock started

    • Replies: @Clyde
  22. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg,

    I agree that your study rules out some genetic explanations for the IQ decline. This is not a case of the poor outbreeding the rich or immigrants outbreeding natives. This is a within-family effect. I’m not sure, however, that all genetic explanations are excluded.

    For instance, the age range of brothers differs between families. In my case, there is only a 3-year difference between myself and my brother. If the age range is large, such as ten or more years, it is very likely that the brothers belong to a stepfamily. This typically happens when a woman divorces and has a child by a second husband. Your methodology is thus biased towards families that are more genetically diverse than two-parent families.

    An argument can be made that men who marry single mothers are qualitatively different from other men. They are less able to compete in the marriage market for one reason or another. In general, they have been less successful in life, and that, in itself, is an IQ test. So, even within the same family, I would expect to see an IQ decline between older and younger cohorts.

    I don’t think this is a minor phenomenon. Fifty percent of all children under the age of 13 currently live in some form of a stepfamily.

    • Replies: @Ole Rogeberg
  23. @Heros

    “instead of being wasted on things like good pay and retirements for oil workers “

    Oil workers and everyone else do pretty well in Norway. It’s a high-tax, high-wage, high-price, high-welfare model, and the Norwegian language plus the climate do a pretty good job of diverting unskilled A8-types towards the UK, so wages should stay high.

    The only snake in this Eden is that some high-fertility groups come for the welfare and stay for the child benefits.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo#Demographics

    “Of Oslo’s 624,000 inhabitants, 189,400 were immigrants or born to immigrant parents, representing 30.4 percent of the capital’s population. All suburbs in Oslo were above the national average of 14.1 percent. The suburbs with the highest proportions of people of immigrant origin were Søndre Nordstrand, Stovner og Alna, where they formed around 50 percent of the population.

    Pakistanis make up the single largest ethnic minority, followed by Swedes, Somalis, and Poles. Other large immigrant groups are people from Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Turkey, Morocco, Iraq and Iran.

    In 2013, 40% of Oslo’s primary school pupils were registered as having a first language other than the Norwegian or Sami. The western part of the city is predominantly ethnic Norwegian, with several schools having less than 5% pupils with an immigrant background. The eastern part of Oslo is more mixed, with some schools up to 97% immigrant share. Schools are also increasingly divided by ethnicity, with white flight being present in some of the northeastern suburbs of the city.”

    • Replies: @Heros
  24. dearieme says:

    “they and others have used stanines, which lose a lot of data. This is particularly bad when the whole argument turns on very precise measures over a relatively short time period … The statistical method used is rather complex.”

    That’s a rather unpromising combination.

    Anyway, first thought: possible confounders. Did they look at the effect of the age gap between oldest and second boy? (In my family it was 29 minutes.) Did they look at the existence of other siblings, their numbers, and birth order? Did they trace the results for only (male) children alone, to act as a sort of base case for comparison?

    What about their heights? Would a look at their heights show up any possibility of the statistical methods throwing up artefacts?

    When did women start taking birth control pills in large numbers? Could 1975 correspond to some aspect of that – maybe the last cohort to be born whose mothers had not all been on the pill for 10 or 15 years? Did their mothers usually take the pill again after the birth of the first born? Could that affect the second born? Or smoking: when did male smoking peak in Norway; did women’s smoking start to increase? How might these relate to 1975?

    • Replies: @Anon
    , @hyperbola
    , @Ole Rogeberg
  25. Tulip says:

    I would be interested in Norwegian trends in divorce and single-mummery in the 1970′s forward–and I might be looking at societies in which “progress” moved more slowly in comparison.

  26. Clyde says:

    bookmark to read more

  27. utu says:

    OT:

    Famed Stanford prison experiment that ‘showed how we are all naturally inclined to abuse power’ was based on LIES and FAKERY, shocking expose claims

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5842893/Famed-Stanford-prison-experiment-shows-naturally-abuse-power-based-LIES.html

  28. WJ says:
    @obwandiyag

    So all of those parents in Africa, even the parents of the African leaders , are just lazy because there seems to be a shortage of geniuses on that continent.

  29. utu says:
    @j2

    the IQ difference between the first and second born son

    Not so fast. There must have been some scaling depending on age difference. If two brothers ∆age=7 and they were tested in 1970 and 1977 and ∆IQ=2 what we suppose to do with this number? Plot against what? 1970 or 1977? How should it be scaled?

    I would like to see example of raw data. IQ scores for brothers 1 and 2 and year1 and year2 when the tests were administered and age1 and age2 their ages when test taken.

    As usual in papers in the field of psychometrics they do not explain too well the mathematical procedures they used (*). The are often sloppy so one may wonder if somebody else did calculation than writing. I just checked this paper they give one equation with four variables listed but the variables are not explained sufficiently. Variable have two indices and they mention only one.

    (*) This is because they use software packages they do not really understand with the exception of one grad student who actually did the calculations.
    ______________

    Earlier I brought up the school reform in Norway. Does it show up in data?

    Lesson From Norway: More Years in School Means a Higher IQ

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/02/lesson-from-norway-more-years-in-school-means-a-higher-iq/252623/

    Schooling in adolescence raises IQ scores

    http://www.pnas.org/content/109/2/425

    We exploit a reform that increased compulsory schooling from 7 to 9 y in Norway in the 1960s to estimate the effect of education on IQ. We find that this schooling reform, which primarily affected education in the middle teenage years, had a substantial effect on IQ scores measured at the age of 19 y.

  30. Heros says:
    @YetAnotherAnon

    So an Oil worker may have an upper middle class salary, even in the top 10% of all people, but after income and other taxes, plus possible draconian alimony and child support, he ends up living pay check to pay check. Meanwhile the sovereign slush fund is monopolized by feminized and queer socialists who want to do him in.

    I have been to Norway, shortly before the Brievik episode. What I noticed was an extreme presence of police. My dog was almost rejected at customs at the ferry terminal because he had not been recently dewormed for some obscure worm, and I had to go immediately to a vet to get this done.

    Autos are very expensive in Norway, almost as over priced as their gas prices which are the highest in Europe, running close to $10/gallon as I recall. From a oil exporting nation with trillions in the bank. Again, the working stiff Norwegian male is robbed. But it doesn’t stop there. There are tolls and camera’s all over the place, and you are constantly being scanned and photographed for road fees. Twice I saw Norwegian men cross into the oncoming traffic lane in order to bypass a toll/license plate reader. One of them was pulling a trailer and he went speeding past us in the oncoming traffic lane with his trailer bouncing all over while we dutifully paid our toll.

    We could also go into things like the cost of alcohol, or the strict limits on gun ownership even though most of the country is wilderness teeming with wildlife.

    In any case, the result is the same. Norway (and all the Nordics as far as all I can tell) are inhabited by extremely suppressed males who given the right circumstances would rebel. That this female dominance and suppression might lead to lower IQ scores in males would be no surprise to me.

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    , @utu
    , @Anon
  31. Not stopped by real knowledge of statististics etc., my idea is quite simple.
    Since 1960 had sad experience of seeing education levels going down, as a former gymnasium pupil, as a university student in the sixties, and of father of children from two consequetive marriages.
    Just a little more than ten years ago my youngest got a university degree.
    Because of the large numbers these sessions are in groups.
    Both my wife and I were shocked at the levels of some ‘scripties’, result of some research.
    No better than a 1960 gymnasium pupil produced.
    Lasch describes how and why USA education became a farce.
    Sarrazin explains the politicl dilemma: good education enlarges the social differences.
    I wonder if the asserted weaons superiority of China and Russia over the USA is the result of what Lasch describes.
    I also wonder if the present political turmoil all over the western world is the result of what Sarrazin describes: hardly anyone can read an intellectual discourse of few pages.
    Twitter is the medium for one liners.
    Christopher Lasch, ‘The Culture of Narcissism, American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations’, 1979, 1980, London
    Thilo Sarrazin, ‘Deutschland schafft sich ab, Wie wir unser Land aufs Spiel setzen’, München 2010

  32. The boomers were the last generation created by people that followed the traditional model of everybody-produces-children, The boomers themselves did not follow this model..
    looking at my own family the best educated have consistently produced fewer children, often half of the children. I forgot the numbers, but the amount of men of 115 IQ without any children is shockingly high. So I don’t buy the exclusion of genetics due to in-family change, most here from western countries probably have the same experience, there is big change within families.
    Add to that partner choice now also including a lot of 3rd world migrants with ethnic Norwegians, or Norwegian men with Thai and Filipino women and we can expect the drop to continue.
    The environment would still be a big factor though. Imagine sitting in a room without television, computers or mobile phones, it’s hard to imagine for most people but that used to be normal, it surely makes it easier to study, or think.
    Global Idiocracy is coming.

  33. @Heros

    I’m not sure it’s “extremely suppressed”, more extremely law-abiding. Years of living in a high trust, homogenous society will do that. And all Nordic societies control alcohol rigorously, which is why you’ll see Swedes in Italian ski resorts falling off their bar stools when given access to cheap beer and spirits.

    ” There are tolls and camera’s all over the place, and you are constantly being scanned and photographed”

    Sounds like the UK, formerly “a free country”.

  34. @obwandiyag

    You can also turn people into yellow-scaled wingless dragonkin. It’s been done before.

    Your comment shows zero knowledge of the subject, so I assume you’re a troll. You know, there’s actually literature on spending virtually unlimited funds on trying to raise the IQ and other achievement measures of Blacks with lasting effects. Go see for yourself.

    You magical-thinking egalitarians are no different from Evangelical Christians that deny the theory of evolution; you’re so religious you actually reject established science.

    • Replies: @Sowhat
    , @Factorize
  35. phil says:
    @anon

    The term “scientific racism” represents an effort to discredit science when it poses a threat to political imperatives. “Anti-racism” has thus been put above the truth.

  36. @obwandiyag

    But they are too stupid to see it.

    Beyond irony.

  37. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @Patriot

    I checked the government, CDC stats got 1958, 60 years ago.

    Total White births including unwed 3,597,306

    Births under 19 4532,344

    All the rest were between 20 and 39 the majority between 20 and 35.

    One must remember that unmarried teen mothers peaked in 1959.

    In those days unwed motherhood was generally a lower class thing both parents and babies would have lower IQs than the middle classes who married in their 20s.

    Average age of marriage in 1960 was 20 for women and 22 for men. That was because of 2 things

    1 a booming economy that didn’t require wasting 4 years in college for men to earn a family living wage.

    2 Chaste virtuous sex morality that forbade sex before marriage or at least a formal engagement.
    So the men had good jobs by 22 and if they wanted their girl they had to get married.

    The draft was still in place in 1960. It was 3 years. So if they enlisted right after high school they’d be out at 21 and since the economy was so good they found a decent paid, secure job.

    I wonder how many of those young army privates were married anyone have any ideas.
    If all you old codgers want women to start getting married and having their first child by 20, do something about affirmative action, the job market, job security and family living wages.

    It would also be nice if the old codgers realized that from 1945 to 1970, the government and private industry did everything possible, good wages for very young men, low cost housing and cost of living in relation to wages to increase the Native American population.

    In the 1930s the birth rate and marriage dropped because of the depression. People have children when the can afford them and don’t have children when they can’t afford them. Unless they are welfare people. White nationalists should not praise early motherhood unless they want to support black and brown illegitimate brats and their black and brown mothers

    After the 1965 immigration act it was all over for the American middle and working class

  38. Anon[132] • Disclaimer says:
    @dearieme

    By 1965 the birth control pill was widespread, especially among married women after the first 2 or 3 children.

  39. Dutch Boy says:
    @Oye

    This is also my impression after a recent visit with relatives in Norway. A malaise of wealth and a pre-occupation with spending time at one’s mountain hytt or Rhodes.

  40. Jake says:

    Socialism and Liberalism generally lead to dumbing down.

  41. We have two levels of duplicity operating in this study.
    First it is clear that this is agenda driven “science” in that the authors designed a study to negate the role of immigration lowering the average intellect of a society by focusing on internal drivers of the same phenomenon.
    And clearly fudging the experiment design along the way to ensure the conclusions they wanted.
    Yet for all the agenda drive and manipulation, they did manage to validly expose the debilitating effects of modern life, which they pretend to be unknown factors, because they can’t indict the feminism that is clearly the cause.
    The second level of duplicity is the logical error they assert. Just because there are internal causes does not mean that immigration is not also contributing to the problem. The fact is that both things are happening.
    This is self evidently true since we know for a fact that the majority of 3rd world migrants are both genetically and socially of lower IQ than the populations they colonize. Any effort to socialize and educate them can only succeed in raising their IQ to a minor degree, and never bring them to parity with the pre existing population.
    The internal debilitation of intellect by feminism and the negative effects of immigration occur simultaneously and at some point the two will merge creating a population unable to sustain the civilization that permitted both to exist.

  42. @obwandiyag

    Pretty lame “refutations.”

  43. utu says:
    @Heros

    What I noticed was an extreme presence of police.

    Police per capita (/100k) from wiki:

    Norway 210
    USA 284 (it might be higher)
    Germany 296
    UK 302
    Scottland 324
    France 340
    Hungary 366
    Netherlands 381
    Portugal 445
    Greece 503
    Russia 515

    I think you are getting Norway all wrong. If you are American rural red neck self-professed libertarian then you will never understand the benefits the ‘communitarian’ way of life in Norway can offer.

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  44. @obwandiyag

    Certain entities that deem themselves anonymous and yet identify their “ethnicity,” like scientific racism because it says that they are smart. Nothing like subjective egotistical bias.

  45. hyperbola says:
    @dearieme

    Norway began child vaccination programs in 1952 and currently vaccinates for about a dozen diseases.

    Information letter from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health

    https://helsenorge.no/SiteCollectionDocuments/Vaccination%20of%20children%20and%20adolescents.pdf

    All children residing in Norway are offered vaccinations against ten diseases;
    diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough, infection with Haemophilus influenzae type B
    (Hib), pneumococcal disease, poliomyelitis, measles, mumps, rubella (German measles)
    and human papilloma virus (HPV). Some children are also offered vaccination against
    hepatitis B and tuberculosis……

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – The ongoing Thimerosal travesty needs to end

    https://www.sott.net/article/388085-Robert-F-Kennedy-Jr-The-ongoing-Thimerosal-travesty-needs-to-end

    Thimerosal is the infamous mercury-containing preservative in use, to this day, in some vaccines and also in dozens of other pharmaceutical products approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).1-3 Public health agencies, government regulators and medical trade groups have repeatedly declared thimerosal to be safe,4,5 but the published peer-reviewed science argues that nothing could be further from the truth. For anyone who bothers to investigate thimerosal’s appalling record, there is a vast, still accumulating and compelling body of research that contradicts the public health establishment’s deceptive safety claims.

    Thimerosal is almost 50 percent ethylmercury by weight. Ethylmercury is an organic mercury compound with toxicity mechanisms similar to methylmercury6 (the hazardous type of mercury in seafood)……

    • Replies: @Anon
  46. Notice how the scientific racists always seem to magically find “statistics” (which aren’t lies or damned lies or anything), to prove that they themselves belong to the cohort of the smartest of the smart. No bias there.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @phil
  47. dearieme says:

    Once families are reasonably small, many won’t have two boys. How might this bias the results?

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  48. anon[168] • Disclaimer says:

    Notice how the scientific racists always seem to magically find “statistics” (which aren’t lies or damned lies or anything), to prove that they themselves belong to the cohort of the smartest of the smart. No bias there.

    This statement is only true if you’re talking about Jewish “scientific racists.”

    Very few white gentiles (even the most “racist” skinheads) ever assert that they belong to the “smartest” cohort. Many Jews do, however. Some Asians do too.

    In a more general sense, many Israeli Jews consider themselves to be the “master race” and believe that the Goyim will all be their slaves one day.

  49. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @Heros

    There is no alimony in Norway except in exceptional cases where one spouse is unable to work.

    Source Norway European Commission on Family Law.

    I realize that most of the men who follow Unz are old, but why are so many of them stuck in 1955?

    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  50. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:
    @hyperbola

    Don’t vaccinate your children and let them die of diphtheria whooping cough scarlet fever and the rest.

    But I’ll vaccinate mine and they will live when your unvaccinated children infect other unvaccinated people and cause deadly diphtheria, Scarlett fever, whooping cough and polio epidemics.

    The anti vaccine movement is just another hysterical movement by unemployed liberals who are no longer unemployed after they hustle enough government grants.

    Get yourself off the “sky is falling “ websites and go to a medical school library and read up about the diphtheria scarlet fever whooping cough and especially the polio epidemics of just the 19th and early 20th century.

  51. Anon[257] • Disclaimer says:

    Off topic

    Desperately looking for something I could bear to watch I turned on the TV. For once, wonder of wonders, the program on the history channel wasn’t about Hitler and Germany 1933 to 1945.

    The program is about Hell’s Angels type biker gangs in the Scandinavian countries. According to the fake history channel most of the crime in the Scandinavian countries and Germany is caused by White veterans who join the motorcycle gangs.

    Last time I turned it in it was about White gangs and criminals in Baltimore of all places.

    The media wants us dead.

  52. @Patriot

    Nobody else directly actually answered your question so I will quickly; I had some other things to say on this (very good, though admittedly it fits my “priors” too) study.

    One explanation is merely correlational, that age at first birth is correlated with any number of cultural factors or socioeconomic status and so in effect mostly just capturing other unobserved exogenous characteristics.

    The other is the effect of mutational load, not just on specific disorders like Down Syndrome but in the genome overall; older parents will have more mutations in their germ cells and most random mutations will be on net harmful. (And a mother being older correlates with an older father of course, if that observation is unavailable)

    Nobody is quite sure of the total effect of these, (mutation rate alone is also controversial) there will be some studies with different estimates, that’s where a lot of debate occurs.

    • Replies: @utu
  53. GeorgK says:

    Two suggestions (from my central-european viewpoint):
    A) Early childhood (late 70′s, early 80′s for this birth cohort): Smaller families (less children), and working mothers, meaning less social interaction in early childhood, therefore a less challenging social environment, producing less “trained” brains (especially in regard to complex, non-linear thinking).

    B) Late childhood and adolescence (around 1990 for this birth cohort): In Europe, TV was mostly in the hands of state-owned public broadcast stations until around the late 80′s. Then (especially with the rise of satellite TV) the media landscape was completely transformed by private TV stations, and a quick downward spiral was started, combined with increased consume (10 hrs of TV program on a weekday and 13 hrs at the weekend was the standard before, and now TV was available 24/7). Watching stupid people doing stupid things for many hours a day will defintely degrade your mental capabilities.

    About 25 years ago, after a few years at the university, I for myself startet noticing a somehow “cartoonish” behaviour of many of the new students being just a few years younger than me (and my friends). This were “different” people, not just younger. The age gap was much too small for a “generation gap”, but it was nevertheless so obvious that I remember this impression very well after all those years.

  54. Curle says:
    @obwandiyag

    “scientific racism”

    Translation: gap explanations that disfavor some groups.

  55. utu says:
    @Krastos the Gluemaker

    Some studies claim that the 1st born have about 3 pnts higher IQ test score.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  56. Sowhat says:
    @Anonymous Jew

    Although I understand your comment on E.C.’s, one should not accept a theory as science simply because it’s been around for one hundred years as Science. Consensus doesn’t necessarily bring verification to a theory either. The Theory of Evolution has lots of holes in it as does Faith from a scientific perspective. So I take exception to anyone positing the science of a theory as if it is fact.

  57. Curle says:
    @j

    “It must be the sex. Too much, too early.”

    Did I miss the Norwegians memo?

  58. edNels says:

    Scandinavians must learn the English in school or the authorities will contact the parents in the home about it.

    Oh is this about IQ here, well my two cents is learn how to test it, then give to the teachers in the schools first, and let everybody see the results!

    There’s differences in the inflection and little nuances between they speak, I think… (sort of catty maybe ) Norse has more histrionics and upspeak, Thranholm (Danish ) is more calm I think.

    Glad they are smart enough to understand each other… and it’s pretty interesting… i think.

    • Replies: @Graham
  59. @obwandiyag

    So what is this paper about?

    Do you think its impossible to breed for traits in a horse, or a dog? Would that suggest some mechanism might work for humans too?

  60. @utu

    In terms of wild speculation, first babies are more likely to be late. Late babies are more likely to have higher IQ.

    And now we can continue randomly guessing, as much of the research really feels like that at times.

  61. @Peter Frost

    Step-siblings would not be viewed as siblings in our data sample, as we use the registered father and mother and compare brothers born to the same set of parents.

    • Replies: @j2
    , @Peter Frost
  62. @dearieme

    I agree with you and James that it would be preferable to have a more “high resolution” ability score than stanines, but that is what we have available in the data.

    The main comparison we make in the paper is between the within-trend on the one hand, and the trend in average scores of firstborn children who are male from each birth year (i.e., whether or not they have later siblings) on the other. This is our “across family” comparison curve.

    The statistical models do account for birth order effects – which we agree is essential. The within-family curves are inferred from the systematic variation in sibling scores beyond this. E.g., if the firstborn has an IQ benefit of 2 points and you had a large number of families where the firstborn is born in 1967 and the secondborn in 1969, you would see that the average difference was less than 2 points (since they are born during the increase period and the later has benefited from being born later on a rising curve). During the decline period you would see an average difference that was larger than 2 points, as the secondborn would be born later on a declining curve.

    • Replies: @dearieme
  63. @utu

    If you understood libertarianism or voluntarism, you would know that people can consistently choose to voluntarily help each other. Yes, this happened and still happens in smaller towns, especially, ever day in the big bad rural America.

  64. j2 says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg, did you check school reforms or similar environmental things (like use of calculators in school)? There is a 3-4 year difference for this trend to start in Finland, any idea why this should be so? The zero assumption would be something in the school, I guess.

    • Replies: @Ole Rogeberg
  65. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg,

    Under Norwegian law, a child’s father is the legally recognized father. According to the Adoption Act (1986), a stepfather becomes the legal father once he has gone through the adoption process:

    “If a spouse or cohabitant has adopted a child of the other spouse or cohabitant, the said child shall have the same legal status in relation to both spouses or cohabitants as if he or she were their joint child.”
    The Adoption Act (1986), Chapter 3, Section 13

    https://www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumenter/ACT-OF-28-FEBRUARY-1986-NO-8-RELATING-TO/id443477/

    Moreover, there are cases where a stepson simply does not know his biological father, either because his mother isn’t sure or because his mother has cut all ties with that man.

    I don’t wish to belabor this point, but it seems to me critical. In Norway today, 20% of all women have children by two or more fathers. Moreover, this percentage increases with family size. If we consider mothers with five children, 41% have children by two or more fathers. Since your methodology is biased toward larger families, it would be vulnerable to this sort of false paternity.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-013-0273-6

  66. DoesNorway suffer from a Hikikomori problem? Japan’s prosperity seems to have led to a new type of Slacker. Is there a similar phenomenon in Norway? As a cultural marker, Norwegian Death Metal seems an extreme statement of rejection of society.

  67. @Peter Frost

    There will certainly be some cases where the father is misidentified – either due to adoption or the mom not knowing (or acknowledging) that the actual father was someone other than her partner. This will not be true for the vast majority of the children, though. Even if it were, however, I don’t see how that could explain our results.

    As for the bias towards large families, we also find similar results when we use only the first two children from families where the first two are male (panel B in the figure at the top of the blogpost). The majority of families in this sample is, IIRC, two-child families. And the correlation between siblings inferred using the statistical model behind panel C is 0.47, which is very close to earlier estimates of the correlation in ability for biological siblings.

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  68. @j2

    No, in this study we did not examine school reforms. We use only information on scores, birthyears and family relationships. School reforms are one possible source of the trends we see that would be consistent with our results (since children with the same parents would attend school in different years and be differentially affected by school reforms), and is amongst the factors we hope to examine further in later research. Also, I agree that comparisons across countries might be a helpful way of identifying the factors at work.

  69. utu says:

    Dear authors,

    Before jumping to the conclusion that you are measuring something investigate the measuring tool you are using. The Flynn effect is the effect of the shrinking or expanding tape measure. At least this is one way to look at it.

    The peak of 1975 in the graphs is the date of birth while more honestly the abscissa axis should be the date of the test. Minor issue but it shows the bias of the authors who think that the scores are definitively related to the tests takers and not to the tests. Very typical confusion suffered by psyshometricians.

    Does this paper address the tests used over the period of 30 years. How were they changing in the course of 30 years? How were they calibrated? If you want to compare test scores of somebody taking tests in 1980 with somebody who took tests in 1998 you must calibrate the two tests to the same scale.

    The tests consisted of several parts? Like math and language. Does the same pattern of the peak at 1975 can be found in each part of the test? In which part it is stronger?

    The Appendix was inaccessible to me so perhaps the answers to my questions are there.

    Two times already I have brought in this thread the school reform in Norway on which several papers on IQ score change due to the extra year of schooling were written in the past. Why we do not see the extra year of schooling effect in the graphs or why this is not even discussed?

    Before jumping to the conclusion that you are measuring something investigate the measuring tool. The Flynn effect is e effect of the shrinking or expanding tap measure.

    • Replies: @res
  70. res says:
    @utu

    The Appendix was inaccessible to me so perhaps the answers to my questions are there.

    You can’t see this link? It worked fine for me. http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/suppl/2018/06/06/1718793115.DCSupplemental/pnas.1718793115.sapp.pdf

    Two times already I have brought in this thread the school reform in Norway on which several papers on IQ score change due to the extra year of schooling were written in the past. Why we do not see the extra year of schooling effect in the graphs or why this is not even discussed?

    If you paid closer attention to your own link: http://www.unz.com/jthompson/1975-and-norwegian-family-life/#comment-2373523

    http://www.pnas.org/content/109/2/425

    a comprehensive compulsory schooling reform that was introduced in Norway in the period from 1955 to 1972 and affected pupils roughly aged 14–16 y.

    You would have noticed that some basic math tells us the youngest birth cohort affected by that change was 1958 (1972 – 14). The current study starts with the 1962 birth cohort. This is an example of how working in terms of birth cohorts rather than test dates can be helpful.

    • Replies: @utu
  71. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg,

    “There will certainly be some cases where the father is misidentified”

    The father is “misidentified” only if the question explicitly asks for the name of the biological father. Is this the case? As I understand it, the conscript is simply asked for the name of his father. Perhaps the question was originally intended to mean “biological father” but that intention has to be made explicit, especially in today’s cultural and legal climate.

    “This will not be true for the vast majority of the children”

    “Vast majority” is a poor choice of words. Today, 20% of Norwegian women have children by more than one man. That proportion, in itself, could be enough to explain your results. Moreover, your methodology is biased towards siblings who are separated by a longer interval of time: “we identify Flynn effects from the remaining variation in IQ and birth year between siblings” (p. 5). The longer the interval, the higher the probability that the children have different fathers.

    “we also find similar results when we use only the first two children from families where the first two are male (panel B in the figure at the top of the blogpost). The majority of families in this sample is, IIRC, two-child families.”

    Again, even if you are looking only at two-child families, your methodology is biased towards longer sibling intervals, and hence two-father families.

    “And the correlation between siblings inferred using the statistical model behind panel C is 0.47, which is very close to earlier estimates of the correlation in ability for biological siblings.”

    In a meta-study, Steven Paul estimated the inter-sibling correlation for IQ at 0.49. This is largely based, however, on American whites, who are a more heterogeneous population than native Norwegians. I would expect a higher figure for Norway, and higher figures have in fact been estimated for British samples. Record et al. (1969) found a correlation of 0.55, based on 5,054 pairs of English siblings. That is the largest sibling intelligence study in the literature.

    https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/eda5/6485400cdddc1b974b9db6edf74acb28fb23.pdf

    • Replies: @Ole Rogeberg
  72. Clyde says:
    @Johan Meyer

    or the population has reduced its salt intake, but there is an iodine deficiency. It might make sense to add iodine to bread again instead.

    I take Lugol’s iodine every morning in some grape juice, Try 1o drops of 2% Lugols. But start at 2 drops. Back it up w some tyrosine for more effect.
    To get a sense of Lugols go see Amazon reviews for Lugols sellers https://www.amazon.com/J-CROWS®-Lugols-Solution-Iodine-2/product-reviews/B001AEFM9Y

    7% Lugols is at ebay which is what I get.

    • Replies: @Johan Meyer
  73. Clyde says:
    @Oye

    A revealing post! These so called migrants from steaming hot third world nations will certainly wait out the long days of darkness and cold in their super heated abodes, for all those fabulous Norwegian social benefits aka welfare. I saw this personally in the cold North of America. In winter this family from the Azores off Portugal cranked up the heat. Higher than high.
    I know Norway has been cucked into allowing in tens of thousands of Somalis. What a joke. Now they get to dine out on the North Sea oil sovereign wealth fund

  74. Clyde says:
    @Andy

    no question 1975 was the beginning of the end for Western civilization, as the following year Punk rock started

    The decline started with Windows 95 and large scale internet access starting about then. First time I got on the internet was 1996. Yahoo was the crudest ugliest gray background web page.
    For America the approval of NAFTA and WTO was in the first half of the 1990s. Illegal immigration increased. The last decade of good pop music and rock was the 1980s. Seems to me the fall of USSR, Berlin Wall and communism (external threats) allowed the West to relax and divert more money internally to useless pursuits and degeneracy. David Bowie Heroes is from 1976, written under the pressure of The Berlin Wall and Soviet communism. This could not have been accomplished in 1996

    The FIRE sectors of the economy also started to dominate in the 1990s. Post modernism took over campuses. btw post modernism is too white oppressor oriented these days. You must be post colonial, meaning the non-whites call the shots in universities etc.

  75. @Clyde

    Very funny, although the neural effects of iodine deficiency in the presence of adequate selenium in the diet, on the developing fetus, somehow fails to inspire mirth in me. The deficiency in humor is evidently mine.

    • Replies: @Clyde
  76. @Peter Frost

    The data on family relationships is not based on responses from the recruits, but from other administrative data sources, like the medical birth registry or the population registry. The only sibling pairs dropped from the data (and only in the analyses behind panel B and C IIRC) are those born in the same year. This is a small share, and they are dropped in these analyses since they do no help identify the within Flynn effects measured on an annual scale.

    Mis-assigned paternity (or rather misassigned sibship) is a measurement error. You believe this measurement error to be more serious than I think is plausible. Is your argument that this measurement error is so substantial that it explains why we find trends within sibling sets born at different times that essentially mirrors the trends seen using the average scores of firstborns (with or without siblings) in the comparison curve?

    Thanks for the reference, btw. I was not aware of this article – our reference on the topic was a different one (Bouchard TJ, Jr, McGue M (1981) Familial studies of intelligence: A review. Science 212:1055–1059).

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  77. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg,

    “The data on family relationships is not based on responses from the recruits, but from other administrative data sources, like the medical birth registry or the population registry. ”

    The same problem arises with the other data sources. The man is asked to identify his father. In Norway, it is now common practice for a stepfather to adopt the children of his spouse. Legally, he is the father. The Adoption Act of 1986 is clear on this point: “If a spouse or cohabitant has adopted a child of the other spouse or cohabitant, the said child shall have the same legal status in relation to both spouses or cohabitants as if he or she were their joint child.”

    “Is your argument that this measurement error is so substantial that it explains why we find trends within sibling sets born at different times”

    Yes. I believe that your results are produced by a bias in your methodology, i.e., a longer time interval between two brothers is associated with a higher probability that they have different fathers.

    We see this time effect with family size. If we look at Norwegian women with only two children, 13.4% have had them by two or more men. This figure rises to 24.9% among Norwegian women with three children, 36.2% among Norwegian women with four children, and 41.2% among Norwegian women with five children. This multiple paternity is produced not so much by family size as by time interval. The probability of a relationship breaking up will increase over time. Brothers who are born farther apart are more likely to have different fathers.

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-013-0273-6

    This is a substantial factor. To produce a pair of brothers, a woman has to have, on average, three children. Among Norwegian women with three children, 36.2% have had them by two or more men.

    • Replies: @res
  78. phil says:
    @obwandiyag

    Not true. White race-realists often note that East Asians have higher average IQs than whites.

    • Replies: @res
  79. res says:
    @Peter Frost

    “The data on family relationships is not based on responses from the recruits, but from other administrative data sources, like the medical birth registry or the population registry. ”

    The same problem arises with the other data sources. The man is asked to identify his father.

    Is that true? I assume the medical birth registry has the father assigned at the time of birth. So misidentification is still a possibility, but does seem much less likely and does not include the case which concerns you most. I have no idea how the population registry works. Perhaps Dr. Rogeberg could clarify that and give an idea of the relative frequency of the data sources used?

    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13524-013-0273-6

    This is a substantial factor. To produce a pair of brothers, a woman has to have, on average, three children. Among Norwegian women with three children, 36.2% have had them by two or more men.

    Good point and reference, and it does indicate a potential problem. However, that paper says it used Norwegian population registries which seems to argue against your original point about the inadequacy of that as a data source.

    P.S. Some more detail from your last link:

    For Norway and Sweden, we use data from the national population registers. Every legal resident of each country is assigned a unique person number that can be used to link such registered events as births, marriages, divorces, place of residence, immigration, and so on. For each birth in Sweden, we know the child’s birth month and year and can identify the child’s mother and father. Thus, birth histories can be created from the mother’s and the father’s points of view. In a very small proportion of cases, fathers are not identified, but an unknown father can be presumed not to be the same person as the father of an earlier- or later-born child, whether identified or not. Thus, without reference to marriage or union histories, we are able to directly determine whether a birth is with the same man as any prior births.

    The much greater accuracy of our estimates for Norway and Sweden than for Australia and the United States means that we must be cautious in drawing conclusions from cross-national differences in the absolute levels of childbearing across partnerships.

    Perhaps Dr. Rogeberg could check his data to see how the frequency of different fathers compares with that paper? It is worth noting from that paper: “We observe birth cohorts from 1952 to 1991.” (vs. 1962-1991 above) Also worth noting (Table 4) that the relative risk ratio for different fathers in Norway changed as follows (by “decade interval start”, not sure exactly how that relates to birth cohort):
    <1980 1.00
    1980s 1.59
    1990s 3.17
    2000+ 3.61

    P.P.S. Has anyone considered that closer birth intervals (say less than 2 years) might result in decreased IQ in the latter child due to nutritional deficiencies in the mother?

  80. res says:
    @phil

    Yes, that is a great tell (on all sides) for whether someone is engaging in motivated “reasoning.”

    P.S. “all sides” is confusing. I mean all of these cases:
    1. someone asserts their race is “best” in something
    2. someone acknowledges their race is not “best” in something
    3. opponent assumes 1 (that would be obwandiyag here)
    4. opponent acknowledges when 2 happens (not holding my breath)

  81. dearieme says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Thank you: it’s refreshing when authors take the opportunity to explain their work.

  82. I’m afraid I still don’t follow your argument.

    Yes – Norwegian mothers who have many children often have these by different men. That finding, however, is based on the *same national registries* that we use to assign family relationships, so those changing partnerships would not be an issue in our results. I find it hard to take seriously a claim that even those women who – according to these data sources- have multiple children by the same man in fact *typically* have them by different men.

    I’m trying to think what it would take for this to generate the results we find. That would mean that

    a) children who are not registered as a couple’s firstborn (i.e., second child, third child and so on) are actually fathered by someone other than the registered father. Essentially, the national data contain *no information* on actual biological fathers, and siblings even in stable families are rarely ever actually full siblings,

    b) there is a very strong change in the IQ of men actually having children in different years – with an increasingly strong selection towards high-IQ biological fathers towards the 1975 cohort, and an increasingly strong selection change towards lower-IQ biological fathers thereafter. The genetic contribution of the father drives the upwards and downwards trend in child scores.

    c) this changing pool of actual fathers is distributed randomly (i.e. not by IQ) to children that in the data appear to be of different parities to the same couple,

    d) the birth order effect is a strong environmental effect driven by resource allocation within the set of children (erroneously) registered as born to the same set of parents.

    e) expanding the time period we are considering (see Sundet 2004, who presents data from a longer series of the conscription test), this increasingly strong selection of high IQ males into fatherhood has been going on since the 1930s and generated an upwards Flynn effect of 12 IQ points from the 1936 to the 1975 cohort

    This all seems to me rather unlikely. In this case, I would expect a substantially lower score correlation between siblings than 0.47, and there should be no correlation between paternal and child IQ (which other studies have found, see http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.592.1962&rep=rep1&type=pdf ).

    Sincerely,

    Ole

    • Replies: @j2
    , @Peter Frost
  83. j2 says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    You referred to the paper of correlation of father and son IQ. Do you know an equally good reference to mother and son correlation preferably from Scandinavia? Just interested.

    • Replies: @Ole Rogeberg
  84. artichoke says:

    “Anyway, the authors say that these data do not allow them to specify what causes the Flynn effect and its reversal, merely to suggest it cannot be genetics.”

    Yes they do claim that, but their logic is wrong. If the full amount of IQ increase, then decline, “can” be recovered entirely from within-family data, it doesn’t mean that’s the only source — just that it might be. And I bet they are working their data to the very limit to show that it can cause the decline. Maybe it can also show a continued increase.

    The coincidence of black and Muslim immigration, and the beginning of the slide of IQ, should not be ignored, and there’s no statistical reason to do so. Indeed there’s a tool for analyzing exactly that sort of thing, “Granger causality”. So I could don my academic hat and say the author failed to examine the Granger causality of nonwhite immigration on the IQ decline.

  85. @j2

    Sorry, no. I’m not aware of any such reference.

  86. artichoke says:
    @Anon

    If you’re not doing anything when the kid has pinkeye, it could become scarlet fever which isn’t fatal either. Nor is whooping cough in healthy people. Most of these vaccines seem to be to protect constitutionally weaker people who started coming in with the 1965 (may be off on the year) Immigraton Act.

  87. hyperbola says:
    @Anon

    A better proposition would be to stop protecting corrupt pharmaceutical companies and require them to produce safe vaccines. Amongst the many other things we need to do to get rid of government-corporation corruption.

    NEJM editor: “No longer possible to believe much of clinical research published”

    https://ethicalnag.org/2009/11/09/nejm-editor/

    “It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of The New England Journal of Medicine.”

    The Truth About the Drug Companies

    http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2004/07/15/the-truth-about-the-drug-companies/

  88. Factorize says:
    @Anonymous Jew

    Anonymous, I have found your direct observations of people of diverse backgrounds and their typical psychometric profiles insightful. I understand these comments not as racist, but as one preson’s honest impression of their experiences. Unfortunately, so much of the dialogue has devolved into politically controlled speech that the real life truth has become displaced from the conversation.

    I would be very interested in hearing your comments about the approaching IQ uplift by genetic selection or otherwise. Seeing beyond the world that is and has constrained us for thousands of years
    demonstrates a form of intelligence that appears to have diminished in the last number of decades.
    I think of how Einstein imagined riding on a beam of light and thought his way to the theory of relativity. With the profound technological change that is without question now on its way we all need to start imagining a Singularian world. My wish is that in such a world there will no longer be those people. In fact, even a slight amount of contemplation should reveal that such divisions simply would not be sustainable.

  89. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    “Yes – Norwegian mothers who have many children often have these by different men. That finding, however, is based on the *same national registries* that we use to assign family relationships, so those changing partnerships would not be an issue in our results.”

    These registries are vulnerable to the same paternity problem, but to different degrees. The conscript registry is most vulnerable. An adult man will likely identify his stepfather as his father because much time has elapsed since the last time he saw his biological father. In many cases, he may have never seen his biological father.

    The medical birth registry is least vulnerable. The mother will usually identify the biological father as the “father.” The exceptions would be cases of infidelity or cases where a new relationship has formed during the pregnancy and the stepfather wishes to be recognized as the child’s father.

    As I understand it, your starting point is the conscript registry. This is where you obtain the conscript’s IQ data. You then find the IQ of his father and his brother in the same registry. Why, then, is it necessary to locate the conscript’s record in the medical birth registry? Is this because the conscript registry does not identify the father and brother?

    “I find it hard to take seriously a claim that even those women who – according to these data sources- have multiple children by the same man in fact *typically* have them by different men.”

    I said that a stepfamily “typically” results when a woman divorces and has a child by a second husband. That is not the same as saying that mothers with multiple children typically have them by different men. In the case of three children, the proportion is 36.2%. I stated this proportion in my last comment, so I’m genuinely puzzled by your misunderstanding.

    “In this case, I would expect a substantially lower score correlation between siblings than 0.47, and there should be no correlation between paternal and child IQ”

    Inter-sibling correlation for IQ has been estimaated at 0.49. This estimate is largely based, however, on American whites, who are a more heterogeneous population than native Norwegians. I would expect a higher figure for Norway, and higher figures have been estimated for British samples. Record et al. (1969) found a correlation of 0.55, based on 5,054 pairs of English siblings.

    Paternal IQ correlates with child IQ because most of the fathers are, in fact, biological fathers. I never said otherwise. You seem to be assuming that most of the fathers would have to be stepfathers to produce the observed decline in IQ between older and younger brothers. In my opinion, this decline could be produced by a minority of stepfathers among the “fathers.”

  90. The conscript data used for this project had no information on family members. The information we used from the conscript registry was a pseudonymous personal identifier (to allow linkage across registers) and a stanine score.

    The medical birth registry only goes back to 1967, but the assigned father in later cohorts is identical in almost all cases to the assigned father in the population registry (which is the source that your Norwegian reference also used as far as I can tell from their paper).

    • Replies: @Peter Frost
  91. pyrrhus says:
    @Anon

    Actually, there is tons of research indicating that nurture has little or no effect on intelligence..And from personal observation, drilling your kids to be x generally leads to a crackup and them opting for y…

  92. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Dr. Rogeberg,

    No, the childbearing study (Thomson et al. 2014) used only the birth records of the population registry, apparently because that kind of data has a high reliability for identifying biological paternity. No use was made of other records (marriage, civil union).

    If I may ask (and I have been asking you many questions, sorry), which kind of data record did you use to identify siblings? It cannot be birth records because that kind of record does not provide information on siblings. Did you use marriage records? In that case, you have the same problem as I mentioned earlier. Adults will generally identify their stepfather as their “father.”

    I would feel reassured if you had systematically cross-checked with the birth records to identify “fathers” as stepfathers and remove them from your study. I get the distinct impression, however, that this was not done. You would have had to remove many such individuals from your pool of subjects.

  93. As far as I can tell, what you refer to as “birth records in the population registry” (used in Thomson) is the same as the data we use. Since we had access to the full population data, we identified full siblings as individuals registered in the population registry with the same mother and father.

    • Replies: @res
    , @Peter Frost
  94. res says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Could you try generating (full OR half) sibling data for same mother and, separately, same father? Looking at those in conjunction with your full sibling data would help:
    1. Estimate the magnitude of the issue Peter Frost is raising.
    2. Confirm that you are (or are not) already handling it reasonably well.

    Is there any chance you could take a look at the distribution of birth spacing for all mothers in your study? Or just for your two brother sample?

    I found this an interesting observation:

    Among the 1987–1991 birth cohorts, fully 30% of those whose older sibling scored in the bottom IQ bracket have missing IQ scores. As sibling scores are correlated, this implies that low ability males are less likely to be scored, and that the selection was stronger for the cohorts born in the late 1980s than for those from the 1960s and 1970s.

    Could you expand on this? Was there any correlation with immigration? Does Norway handle low ability males differently for conscription in a way that would prevent them even being IQ tested?

  95. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    The “population registry” is several different registers whose contents are filled out at different times in a person’s life. The “birth files” are a separate entity. At least they are described as such in the following description:

    “Using unique personal identifiers, we match these birth files to the Norwegian Registry Data, a linked administrative dataset that covers the entire population of Norwegians aged 16-74 in the 1986-2002 period, and is a collection of different administrative registers such as the education register, family register, and the tax and earnings register. These data are maintained by Statistics Norway and provide information about educational attainment, labor market status, earnings, and a set of demographic variables (age, gender) as well as information on families”

    http://anon-ftp.iza.org/dp1864.pdf

    In any case, the birth files are not a useful source for sibling names. A better source is the family register, which is updated annually. It is a good register for locating siblings, but the “father” in the family register is the current legal father, and for about one third of your subjects he will be a stepfather.

    • Replies: @res
  96. res says:
    @Peter Frost

    In any case, the birth files are not a useful source for sibling names.

    Why? If they have unique and reliable father and mother identifiers it seems to me they should work well.

    More detail from Thomson 2014:

    For Norway and Sweden, we use data from the national population registers. Every legal resident of each country is assigned a unique person number that can be used to link such registered events as births, marriages, divorces, place of residence, immigration, and so on. For each birth in Sweden, we know the child’s birth month and year and can identify the child’s mother and father. Thus, birth histories can be created from the mother’s and the father’s points of view. In a very small proportion of cases, fathers are not identified, but an unknown father can be presumed not to be the same person as the father of an earlier- or later-born child, whether identified or not. Thus, without reference to marriage or union histories, we are able to directly determine whether a birth is with the same man as any prior births.

    • Replies: @Ole Rogeberg
  97. Graham says:
    @edNels

    “Norse has more histrionics and upspeak”; actually what you are hearing is the Norwegian tone system, where some words have tone 2, also known as the double tone, which ends on a very noticeable higher pitch than the previous syllable. Swedish has a very similar system. Danish lacks tones.

  98. @res

    I feel like this is going in circles, so I expect this will be my final post. At this point I have no illusions that everyone will be satisfied by the answers ;)

    In this study we used a population register, which – as I’ve noted – can be used to identify full (and half) siblings. There are no names in the data, but each individual has a unique pseudonymous numeric identifier (a stand-in for their “fødselsnummer” – birth number, a unique personal identifier assigned to every Norwegian citizen at birth). These are data kept by Statistics Norway, and most likely the same source used by Thomson et al for Norway.

    There is an additional register data source called the Medical Birth Registry which begun operating in 1967 (or thereabout). This dataset is administered by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and contains the identifier for each parent, as well as additional information on birth weight, due date, birth complications etc.

    For cohorts born before 1967, the population registry is the only source of information on parents. For the cohorts born after the MBR was established we have two sources of information. About 594 000 of the individuals in the dataset used for this study were born in the period where both registers are available, and the share with the same father in both datasets was 0.9993236.

    • Replies: @res
    , @j2
    , @Peter Frost
  99. res says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Thank you for the additional detail! Not sure if you saw this in Thomson et al. 2014, but I think it gives a further clue to their data sources for Norway:

    We cannot directly observe nonunion births in the Norwegian register data for the period studied here, but for more recent periods, estimates from registers are 8 % to 12 % (Statistics Norway n.d.).

    Another clue is the source attribution in Table 1.: “Norway: registers (1970–2007).”

    A relevant citation: Statistics Norway. (n.d.). Live births by cohabitation status (Table 05525). Retrieved from http://www.ssb.no

    Hopefully your additional detail and a closer examination of Thomson et al. 2014 is enough to put this discussion to rest.

    Thanks again for coming here to discuss your paper.

    P.S. This was an interesting nugget about Norwegian men having children with multiple partners:

    A recent study of Norwegian men found that compared with those with tertiary education, men with secondary education were less likely to have children with more than one partner, a difference that is consistent with the argument about partner attractiveness and resources for stepfamily childbearing. On the other hand, both education groups were less likely to experience childbearing across partnerships than men with only compulsory education (Lappegård and Rønsen 2013).

    P.P.S. For those who want to know more about the Norwegian National Registry: https://www.skatteetaten.no/en/person/national-registry/om/this-is-the-national-registry/

    https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/meetings/wshops/1995_Rabat_CRVS/Docs/Doc.26_Norway_eng.pdf

    The Act of Population Registers came into force on 3 December 1946, the date of the 1946 Population Census. This Act was superseded by the Act of Population Registration in 1970, but the main contents remained unchanged. According to the law a local population registry was established in each municipality, which is the smallest administrative unit in Norway (435 in 1994).

    A person who moves within a municipality is obliged to report the change of address directly to the population registry within 8 days. When a person moves to another municipality, he/she is obliged to report for himself/herself and his/her family to the local registry where he/she settles down within 8 days. (They are considered to be residents of the other municipality from the date the report was received, i.e. usually not from the real day of migration.)
    A person (alien or Norwegian) coming to Norway from abroad intending to stay in the country for at least 6 months, is obliged to go to the actual local registry within 8 days bringing identification documents. All persons who emigrate to another country or intend to stay abroad for at least 6 months are responsible for reporting this in advance to the local population register.

    The latter link (written by someone with Statistics Norway in 1995) has a great deal of detail about how the registry is updated, how population ids are assigned, etc. Page 25 lists the main contents of the Central Population Register (CPR). Section 2.7 on page 10 talks about birth registration (Figure 2 on page 11 has a flowchart: Path of official registration of births) and mentions the MBR starting in 1967. It also says the MBR has cohabitation data.

  100. j2 says:
    @Ole Rogeberg

    Ole, it was a good paper. I am pretty sure they argue just to tease.

  101. Peter Frost says: • Website
    @Ole Rogeberg

    This too will be my final comment. In my opinion, it is erroneous to believe that a person’s “father” is identified consistently in the Norwegian population registry.

    This registry is actually a collection of different registers with information on different life events. If you know a Norwegian’s unique personal identifier, you can easily navigate from one register to another to collect information on that person and on related individuals.

    Three registers are relevant to this discussion:

    1. The Birth Register contains information that is recorded at the time of birth. Normally, there is no subsequent updating. The “father” is usually the biological father of the child.

    2. The Conscript Register has information on height, weight, and IQ. This information is recorded before the conscript enters service, when medical and psychological suitability is assessed. Normally, there is no subsequent updating. To locate siblings, it is necessary to go to another register, usually the Family Register.

    3. The Family Register is maintained by Statistics Norway and provides information about the family, including the mother and the father. It is updated annually. The “father” is thus the current legal father. If a stepfather adopts the children of his spouse, as is common practice, he becomes the “father.”

    At first sight, this collection of registers seems to be a gold mine of information. Unfortunately, the quality of the information has suffered from a social trend that has been stronger in Scandinavia than elsewhere in the West, i.e., the redefinition of the family. As a result, the word “father” no longer has a consistent meaning. In some cases, such as birth records, it usually means the biological father—the man who provided half of the child’s genetic makeup. In other cases, such as the family register, it means the man who provides the family with at least some economic support. Increasingly, the two roles are no longer played by the same person.

    • Replies: @res
  102. res says:
    @Peter Frost

    In my opinion, it is erroneous to believe that a person’s “father” is identified consistently in the Norwegian population registry.

    Then how do you explain this observation from Ole?

    For cohorts born before 1967, the population registry is the only source of information on parents. For the cohorts born after the MBR was established we have two sources of information. About 594 000 of the individuals in the dataset used for this study were born in the period where both registers are available, and the share with the same father in both datasets was 0.9993236.

    Also keep in mind that the rate of different fathers was lower in the early cohorts (from Thomson Table 4). Is 99.93% accuracy (with respect to the MBR, which you seem to think is adequate) not good enough for you?

    Above I linked a detailed 1995 description of the Norwegian registers written by Halvard Skiri of Statistics Norway: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/meetings/wshops/1995_Rabat_CRVS/Docs/D

    You state:

    3. The Family Register is maintained by Statistics Norway and provides information about the family, including the mother and the father. It is updated annually. The “father” is thus the current legal father. If a stepfather adopts the children of his spouse, as is common practice, he becomes the “father.”

    I assume that is the same as the CPR described in the document I linked. Why do you infer “The “father” is thus the current legal father” implies that the CPR has been updated in a destructive fashion (i.e. not recording the birth father in another field)? I find it hard to believe the Norwegian statisticians would do such a thing. Clearly the sensible thing to do is record all versions of a field like that. Do you have any evidence that the birth father data is not retained in the register after adoption?

    Looking around I see your post: https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2018/06/why-is-iq-declining-in-norway.html
    It would have been helpful if you had linked to your more fully realized argument there.

    On page 18 of that 1995 document above we see “Important: Date of registration is attached to most variables.” so it should be possible to check if a variable has been updated or not. We also see a Father PIN date field in the screenshot mentioned below.

    If anyone is interested, slide 5 of this presentation has a screenshot of the fields in the CPR: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/meetings/2017/new-york–egm-on-management-and-evaluation-of-crvs-systems/Session19-Norway-PopRegister-and-Quality.pdf
    More about the CPR in this presentation: https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.10/2016/wshp_Georgia/20160406a_Basic_info_about_Norwegian_system.pptx

    Some information about adoptions from Statistics Norway: https://www.ssb.no/en/adopsjon
    Table 1 indicates there are about 100-250 stepchildren adoptions per year (1992-2017).

    P.S. Declaring it is your last comment is much more compelling if you have actually made a persuasive case before withdrawing. Until you respond to Ole’s comparison with the MBR (99.93% the same father) you have done nothing of the sort.

    P.P.S. Ole, can you please check how stepfathers are handled in your data? Do they replace the original father, or are they recorded either as an additional father or in an additional field, or …?

  103. @Peter Frost

    There must be very, very few Norwegian women having five children in their lifetimes. I’ll bet that the majority of those five-child women are non-European invaders, mostly African and/or Muslim.

    So, statistics about five-child women might not tell us much at all about actual Norwegian women.

  104. @Peter Frost

    Can a woman in Norway unilaterally decide to cut a child off from his father? I would hope not. How does a stepfather become the father without the actual biological father being asked or judicially forced (because of abuse, neglect) to give up his parental rights first?

    PS I mean AFTER birth. We all know that women in Norway and other western countries have the legal “right” to kill their babies without consulting the father, even where the father is willing and able to care for the child. That’s “free choice.”

  105. @dearieme

    Good question. There aren’t many Norwegian women — actual white genetically-Scandinavian Norwegians — who have even two children.

    The country’s TFR is only 1.6 to 1.9 in the last decade, and it is presently declining, presently 1.6.

    But 20% of all births in Norway are to immigrant parents, at least half of whom are noneuropeans.

    The TFR for Norwegian women is probably 1.5 or even lower. Norwegians are dying out. Of course very few Norwegians have two boys, because few have two kids of either sex.

  106. @Anon

    I wasn’t born till way after 1955. But how was his comment indicative of being quote stuck in 1955, snowflake?

  107. @Anon

    I we know some employed non-liberals — in fact, well-employed people far from the left wing politically and culturally — who are very concerned by what they have learned about the chemical in question.

    We have chosen for our kids to get all immunizations offered, but it’s not clear that the concerns of the anti-thimerosal crowd are absurd.

  108. dux.ie says:

    UK school census. No more ethnic IQ study.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/720098/2018_to_2019_school_census_business_and_technical_specifications_v_1.1.pdf

    1.4.3 Discontinued items

    1.4.3.2 Proficiency in English
    The collection of data item (N00196) is no longer required by the department and, as such, it is removed from the school census collection from spring 2019 onwards.

    1.4.3.3 Pupil country of birth
    The collection of data item (N00188) is no longer required by the department and, as such, it is removed from the school census collection from autumn 2019 onwards.

    1.4.3.4 Pupil nationality
    The collection of data item (N00187) is no longer required by the department and, as such, it is removed from the school census collection from autumn 2019 onwards.

    • Replies: @James Thompson
  109. I have just spent nearly an hour with this with comments of varying intelligence. The point was that the study filtered out considering immigrants and was intended for one group and boy did they discover something interesting, except that the data was so concealed that it called for yet more studies to clear out the mess. OK, were there changed to the IQ tests over the period? I recall in 1969 a change to American SAT’s that led to sudden changes in test scores–my own included. Age and birth order of brothers: my family it was B-G-G-B from 1941 to 1952 and I was the last boy 10.5 years younger than my pre-WW2 brother; thus I’m not an “exploding infant” while most of my classmates in school were from post-WW2 marriages. I’m afraid it’s back to the drawing board for this study which does seem to suggest that people are somehow being dumbed down; in fact the study is useless for further discussion.

  110. @j2

    If the father’s age is over 40, the IQ of the children is in average smaller. Between ages 20 and 30 there should not be differences.

    If the father’s age is above 50, the IQ should be larger. Because women can be quite choosy, and only the top rank of such men are given an opportunity to reproduce (or often rereproduce). Trophy wives may be venal, but are not usually stupid themselves.

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