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The Donald Trump Phenomenon: Part 1: The American Nations

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Updated, 4/6/16. See below!

The 2016 U.S. presidential race has brought out a serious whirlwind of events, the likes of which haven’t been seen in a long time, if ever. Despite my own expectations for a boring campaign, this election cycle has been anything but. Most significant to this excitement has been the rise of Donald Trump – and, to a lesser extent, the rise of Bernie Sanders. Much has been said about these men, including much in an attempt to figure out what is behind their popularity. However, this election, particularly the battle against Trump, has taken on a larger scope, in ways that far exceed the man. The election is about grander issues. In good part, it is about the fate of the very character of the nation itself – and indeed, of all of Western society.

While there may be a perhaps an unprecedented series of events occurring in this election, there are nonetheless clear patterns to the vote, patterns we’ve seen before.

For one, the American nations (see American Nations Series) have played a large role in the 2016 presidential race. The reason for this, ultimately, is because demographic factors are what drives elections, at least in our era. Contrary to popular analysis (even that within the HBD sphere), the composition of a region’s population dictates said region’s vote – at least, much more so than situational factors such as economics, crime, or urbanicity. This is plainly obvious to the genetically informed, but is ignored by most mainstream discussion of politics. Mainstream sources struggle to find “environmental” factors that dictate the vote, and they run into trouble every time when they do.

None of this should be surprising, since we know that political views are highly heritable (from Hatemi et al, 2010):

Political chart heritability

There is minimal effect of “the environment” within cohorts (and the differences between cohorts is likely primarily situational). The way people vote is a reflection of who and indeed what they are. It has nothing to do with how they were raised by their parents, where they grew up, or where they live now (except to the extent current self-interest is involved). (See also The Behavioral Genetics Page, particularly the post The Son Becomes The Father.) To understand that vote, you must understand the people.

To quickly recap, the United States (and for that matter, Canada) is divided into several broad ethnocultural regions – nations if you will.

North American Nations 4 3

These regions exists thanks to the continuing legacy of the founding populations and the various assortative migrations (founder effects and boiling off) that have happened over the history of the country. This was described by Colin Woodard in his book American Nations. In my American Nations Series, I detail the various ways these nations are visible today as well as discuss their genetic roots.

In the present election cycle, the nations are playing a role. First, here is a map of support for Donald Trump across the country (from Nate Cohn).

Cc0G46rUsAAR3Y2

 

Many have dubbed this an “east vs. west” split (as opposed to usual north/south split typically seen), but it isn’t really that, as Trump has modestly strong support near the West Coast. Rather, we see that Trump is strong across the usual “Dixie” nations, the Tidewater, the Deep South, and especially Greater Appalachia. He also has fair support across Yankeedom, but is comparatively weak in the Midlands. There is a pronounced “hole” in Trump’s support, but a look at this second map shows precisely where:

US Personality

Trump is weak in the “Friendly & Conventional” zone of the country. This map is drawn from personality studies detailed in Rentfrow et al (2013). The “Friendly & Conventional” zone is an area high in extraversion, agreeableness, and conscientiousness and depleted in openness to experience (see Predictions on the Worldwide Distribution of Personality). A modern popular notion likes to lump together the interior of the country as the “Flyover Zone”, being universally Christian, conservative, and traditional. But the American nations maps and this one clearly show that that idea is too simplistic. These areas do vote strongly Republican in the general presidential election, but there is much more nuance than that.

For one, there is a key difference in the overall composition. Greater Appalachia is composed heavily of Ulster Scots, originally from the Anglo-Scottish border area. The Deep South and the Tidewater derive from the English Cavaliers from southwest England.

By contrast, the “Friendly & Conventional” zone is heavily German and Scandinavian in ancestry. Furthermore, the area has been heavily “boiled-off,” as more liberal and adventurous individuals have fled the area for decades, leaving a core of traditional and conservative individuals in its wake (as detailed in my post More Maps of the American Nations). These conservatives are quite unlike their Southern counterparts (see Genes, Climate, and Even More Maps of the American Nations):

The "Friendly & Conventional" region (Rentfrow et al 2013), a region of German/Scandinavian extraction that has been "boiled down"

The “Friendly & Conventional” region (Rentfrow et al 2013), a region of German/Scandinavian extraction that has been “boiled down

They vote overwhelmingly for Trump rival Ted Cruz (map from The New York Times):

Trump-Cruz 4 -20



http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/431667/ted-cruz-has-two-big-problemsCruz’s style of religious conservatism and less aggressive, less bombastic style appeals more to these voters.

Ironically, Trump’s support is apparently weak among one of his own, German-Americans (from Fulford, Petkov, and Schiantarelli 2015, discussed in Demography Is Destiny, American Nations Edition):

German ancestry 2010

Trump’s support in the Northeast seems to correlate to Italian areas:

trump northeast zoom italian americans zoom

Whether or not it is Italian-Americans – or people who live in areas with Italian-Americans – who are supporting Trump is not clear. (His stronghold in Eastern Massachusetts suggests he has considerable Irish-American support as well.)

On the Democratic side, again we see the American nations coming into play in the battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

Hillary-Bernie-4-20

http://www.idigitaltimes.com/hillary-clinton-pledges-area-51-ufo-disclosure-says-we-may-have-been-visited-aliens-500769

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/06/bernie-sanders-plan-to-beat-hillary-clintonThe contest between Clinton and Sanders shows Bernie being particularly weak in the Dixie nations. But Sanders is particularly strong in the north, especially in Yankeedom, his current “home” nation.

There is clear north-south pattern to Clinton vs. Sanders, but the battle between these two is also literally a battle between Black and White.

Most of Bernie’s losses stem from his deep lack of support among Blacks.

But there is more going on here than just that. The map of Clinton vs. Sanders looks very similar to the map of Clinton vs. Obama back in 2008 (from here):

Clinton-Obama

We see a clear north-south divide, even among non-Black voters. Bernie is strongest in the same areas Obama was, with the exception that he is not carrying the Black vote. However, there is more going on to the regional Clinton-Sanders split than just Black-White differences If we assume the pattern among White Democratic voters is similar to what it was in 2008, which is suggested by the current maps, we see Bernie is decidedly weak among White Democrats across the Dixie nations, and weak across much of the old Rust Belt (central Yankeedom/the Midlands).

Why is this the pattern? The reason is simple. Bernie Sanders, with his message of Scandinavian-style socialism appeals most strongly to very WEIRDO voters. As recounted in several of my previous posts, particularly The Rise of Universalism (see also Clannishness – the Series: Zigzag Lightning in the Brain for a key recap at the beginning of the post), people with a ancestry from Northwestern Europe are more likely to be oriented towards the “commonweal.” This is the notion that there should be societal institutions in place to serve the common good, on many levels. Democratic socialism is a natural outgrowth of that, as we see in Northwestern European countries and their offshoots. WEIRDO people are distinct from all other peoples in the world, and it is these people that make up Bernie Sanders’s base (which I get to see first hand here in Maine, as I live in a pretty WEIRDO part of the state).

In other parts of the country, more clannish Whites dominate. These are the Scots-Irish and the English Cavaliers in the South, as well as Irish, Italians, and various Eastern Europeans across parts of Yankeedom, the Midlands, and “New Netherland.” These peoples aren’t as impressed with Bernie’s calls for socialism – being more oriented to their own kin than to common society – and hence support Hillary Clinton.

Therefore, despite standing to benefit from Bernie Sanders’s socialist ideas, Blacks, especially those in the South don’t succumb to Bernie’s WEIRDO appeal (he may have more appeal with Blacks in the North).

And indeed, we see some interesting psychological differences between supporters of the various candidates:

From Trump’s voters aren’t authoritarians, new research says. So what are they? – The Washington Post

1. Trump voters are no more authoritarian than supporters of Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio

2. What really differentiates Trump’s voters from the other Republicans is the populism.

Trump voters are the only ones to score consistently high on all three populist dimensions. Cruz and Rubio’s supporters, for example, don’t express high feelings of anti-elitism. In fact, on this scale, they are strongly anti-populist, identifying with authority rather than rejecting it.

The psychology of Democratic voters also becomes apparent. In many ways, Bernie Sanders’s supporters are the mirror image of Trumps, except for the anti-elitism. Where Trump’s supports are nationalists, Bernie’s supporters are universalists. They rail against the elites much like the American revolutionaries railed against the English crown and the aristocracy. (And no doubt this is why Bernie doesn’t stress his own previous anti-immigration views during his campaign.)

Edit, 3/12/16 [I also wanted to touch on another aspect of Trump's support that has come up frequently. That is that Trump's support correlates with where middle aged White death rates are highest.

Edit, 3/17/16 - [The pattern continues:

***]

From Death predicts whether people vote for Donald Trump – The Washington Post. Of course, an explanation for this is easily produced, and it partly captured in a recent article of geographic correlates of Trumps’s support:

Trump Support correlations

This is from The Geography of Trumpism – The New York Times. The key is those lacking a high school diploma. As we saw in my earlier post IQ and Death, people (and peoples) with lower IQ tend to die sooner. Many of the areas rich with Trump supporters are lower IQ working class area. These areas are depleted of higher IQ individuals (many often more liberal and WEIRD and often have left for the cities). In essence, these areas are boiled down – areas bereft of human capital. This explains both the poor economic prospects and the shorter lifespans.

As well, there is an ethnic component. As we saw, Trump’s support is strong with the Scots-Irish, and many of the above correlates are those of Scots-Irish areas. As we saw in my earlier posts HBD is Life and Death and More Maps of the American Nations, Scots-Irish areas of the country have shorter lifespans and a greater incidence of problems such as prescription drug overdoses.

DrugPoisonDeaths2

Stoke Death Rates, Whites

Stoke Death Rates, Whites

What these people have discovered, again, is the American nations. ***End Edit***]

Edit, 4/6/16,: [And indeed, it seems Ricky Vaughn has done an analysis that proves my point about ethnicities in the country that are friendly or hostile to Trump:

It appears that Vaughn did not use the correct ancestry breakdown by county as provided by Fullford et al 2015, but rather he is using Census data, which is known to be quite noisy. Still, even with this limitation, the pattern is striking and strongly supports the point I've made about ethnicity – or more specifically, group origin (to take into account compound groups of self-sorted peoples and groups that have fissioned in America).

All American regional political differences represent group-level genetic differences. ***End Edit***]

All of these regional differences, however, will mostly collapse to the usual American nations regional differences in the general election.

American Nations 2012nationwidecountymapshadedbypercentagewonD

It is the precise balance in the close contest states that will determine the winner.

Pundits will continue to make predictions about politics (especially about geographic patterns) and will continue to be wrong because they do not take regional genetic diversity (even among Whites) into account.

In the next part, I will discuss the rancor surrounding the presidential election and the Trump candidacy, and the deeper issue behind it all.

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116 Comments to "The Donald Trump Phenomenon: Part 1: The American Nations"

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  1. I live in the north east in a large Italian area. Can confirm Italians support Trump a lot. Being half Italian myself, I see tons of my family members who support him.

    Have you read the paper talking about race and political views? It came out in 2012 if I remember correctly. I will link it tomorrow.

    Also keep in mind, like 93 percent of blacks voted for Obama in 08.

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  2. This 32-year-old article has maps of George Wallace’s and John Anderson’s protest votes which nicely illustrate Daniel Elazar’s Moralistic/Individualistic/Traditionalistic divisions:

    Rednecks and Quiche Eaters: A Cartographic Analysis of Recent Third-Party Electoral Campaigns

    As far as 2016′s maps, Minnesota’s Cruz/Rubio split doesn’t fit any of these analyses. It looks more like an organized effort in the cities and college towns, and less pro-Rubio than anti-Trump. (John Kasich is more to Minnesota’s style than is Desi Arnaz 2.0.) My caucus was packed with loud Rubio college kids.

    The Driftless area of the Mississippi Valley from the St Paul exurbs to just past Dubuque also looks odd here. Like Vermont, it’s filled up with back-to-the-land types in recent decades (among the biggest employers are Land’s End and the Organic Valley dairy co-op), and votes Democratic except in Republican landslides.

    Cohn’s map has Trump weak on the west bank and strong on the east. I can’t think of any reason for this except perhaps as a reaction to minority power brokers in the Illinois and Wisconsin legislatures, less of a problem in whiter Iowa and Minnesota. Minnesota and Iowa are caucus states and have already voted. Trump won more Driftless counties in Iowa than the others, notably Postville’s, where the kosher-illegal scandal broke out.

    Wisconsin and Illinois haven’t voted yet, so what are Cohn’s data in those states based on?

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  3. It is rather incorrect to say Sanders’ policies are like Scandinavia.

    He makes that appeal but it’s more generic big government, high tax policies than the Nordic model which permits more economic freedom than the US in many ways (not all).

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  4. Is Trump the sign of a coming race war? There’s something almost inevitable about Trump’s success, in the sense it represents very turbulent trends that have been bubbling under the facade of American politics for a long time.

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  5. Trump’s rallies are also becoming increasingly violent

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/12/trump-cancels-chicago-rally-says-didnt-want-to-see-anyone-hurt.html

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  6. Isn’t trump half highlander? His mother was Mary Anne McLeod, born in the Outer Hebrides of Scotland.

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  7. Anonymous
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    In general, northern European Protestant Americans tend to be more conservative and Republican, while Catholic ethnics tend to be more moderate and Democratic:

    http://inductivist.blogspot.com/2016/01/white-voting-by-ethnic-group.html

    Trump is getting lots of support from moderates and Democrats and Independents, while Cruz has the most support from conservative Republicans.

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  8. In general, northern European Protestant Americans tend to be more conservative and Republican, while Catholic ethnics tend to be more moderate and Democratic:

    That’s self-reported ethnicity, though, which is rather unreliable. You need to be able to skim off the noise to analyze any signal.

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  9. Anonymous
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    It’s unreliable for discriminating significantly among various Protestant backgrounds, but not among Protestant, Catholic, or Jewish groups.

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  10. It’s unreliable for all of those groups.

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  11. Why is there a noticeable and significant difference between the % of blacks voting for Bernie in the Northern States as opposed to his % in the Southern States?

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  12. Anonymous
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    How do you mean? People who identify as Polish, Italian, Jewish, etc. tend to have significant ancestry from those groups. People who identify as English, Welsh, Dutch, etc. may not be predominantly specifically of those groups, but they’re generally mixed with other Protestant backgrounds.

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  13. A very convoluted explanation, I’m sure it took weeks to construct and is doubtless very detailed and thorough. Almost no one will read it.

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  14. Good question. I don’t know. Well, just like not all Whites across the country are the same, not all Blacks around the country are the same, either.

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  15. How do you mean? People who identify as Polish, Italian, Jewish, etc. tend to have significant ancestry from those groups.

    Did you read the links in my initial comment to you?

    Signal and noise. That fraction is quite often very small. The problem when you do analyses like this is that people can systematically self-identify according to the variables of interest. That throws off your results. Hence, while there is signal there, you don’t know if that’s what you’re actually seeing or if you’re just seeing the noise.

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  16. Self reported ethnicity is a good metric

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/

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  17. Anonymous
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    I did read the links. Greg Cochran writes in the linked piece:

    Of course, Henry isn’t all that Dutch. His surname is. He comes from an area of New York State that really did have some Dutch settlement. The thing is, white Protestants in this country have been intermarrying rather freely for several hundred years: it is rare to find someone in that category whose ancestors all come from one ethnicity. I would be surprised if Henry is 1/8th Dutch. In much the same way, my patrilineal lineage is Ulster Scot (who fears mention the battle of the Boyne!?) but the rest includes English, Welsh, Scottish, Green Irish, and a component that, I suspect, only became Dutch in 1918, and was Bavarian before that. We’re talking about ye olde Americans, not Ellis Island types. Not that they haven’t mixed as well, but less so…

    This was my point. It’s generally unreliable for discriminating among the different individual Protestant backgrounds, but not as unreliable for discriminating between Protestants, Catholics, and Jews. A person who identifies as Jewish for example will tend to have significant Jewish ancestry, while a person who identifies as Dutch may only be 1/8 or less Dutch like Harpending while the rest of their ancestry will tend to be composed of other Protestant groups.

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  18. For continental race, sure. Not so much for intrarace ethnicity. See Demography is Destiny, American Nations Edition. Note the Fulford, Petkov, and Schiantarelli (2015) paper within.

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  19. This was my point. It’s generally unreliable for discriminating among the different individual Protestant backgrounds, but not as unreliable for discriminating between Protestants, Catholics, and Jews.

    Because those three groups never mix in America… :\

    Dude, I’m sick of arguing about this. You are wrong. Yes, some ancestry from said groups will be detected, but I’ve already explained how partial admixture and systematic self-identification can make analysis using self-reported ethnicity difficult. No more comments on this matter here.

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  20. Anonymous
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    Fulford et al use old census data to estimate present day ethnic composition of counties, which should correlate with self reported ethnicity.

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  21. Fulford et al use old census data to estimate present day ethnic composition of counties, which should correlate with self reported ethnicity.

    No shit. Most people don’t truly understand the meaning of the word “correlate.” You don’t appear to be any exception. I’m not denying such. The point is that self-reported measures are too noisy to be used for the purposes you noted.

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  22. Shame they still do the easily manipulated caucuses, primaries would give us an even clearer view. I assume Maine would have gone Trump, or Kasich, in a primary.

    I assume Trump will take California but what about the NW?

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  23. I think Trump’s mom is a brand of protestant that is a lot closer to the Ulster-Scots than the highlanders.

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  24. The American Nations, 2016 – waka waka waka
    says:
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    […] yet another hat-tip to hbd*chick, here’s a very interesting item from “Jayman” on Trump, democracy and […]

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  25. Just a quibble: The maritime provinces of Canada are quite different from yankeedom.

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  26. I am a Trump supporter, though I don’t individually fall into these categories. But my extended family and ancestry do illustrate your points. The quarter of my ancestry that came over in the 1630s, settled in Maryland, and fought in the Revolution are more unpredictable than the German Swiss quarter that came over much later, and tend to obey orders. My Scots-Irish/ English quarter are anti-Elites, while my Scandinavian quarter is predictably non-rebellious and rather passive.

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  27. Good golly, Miss Molly- talk about a thorough analysis !
    Thanks Jayman !

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  28. Reminds me of Panem in the “Hunger Games” https://cindybiondigobrecht.wordpress.com/2016/03/09/is-the-trump-phenomena-blowback-from-our-liberal-political-correctness/

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  29. Just a quibble: The maritime provinces of Canada are quite different from yankeedom

    Not really. I’ve been there. The only real difference is that the people are even more friendly.

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  30. Why are you so averse to to acknowledging that Catholic “ethnics” are much more leftist on average than “old-stock” Americans, it contradicts the HBD individualism of NW Europe v collectivism dogma?

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  31. If I were observing the candidates based only on personality and style, I’d expect Trump to run the table of Italian-, Irish- and Jewish-Americans, and do much less well among Scandinavian-, German- and Anglo-Americans. And do better than any other Republican among blacks, perhaps more in the South. He could be the second black president [after Bill, natch].

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  32. Yeah, as a Canadian I bridled at that one too. But although they do not feel the same to me [Maritimers seem more reserved than New Englanders to me, but then my experience of New England is more Boston than Maine or even rural Mass] they do have a lot in common and parallel histories, and the cultural links between the Maritimes and New England are well known and VERY deep even now.

    I was more interested in the size of Yankeedom as a whole. I’ll have to go back to your series. I never quite got the idea that New England, New York, and the Scando-German Midwest were the same nation. Though compared to their immediate neighbours, perhaps so.

    The Midlands seem to me similarly a tough sell, but perhaps I’m not looking deeply enough at settlement patterns and just at superficial culture. As a transition zone between Yankeedom and the various southern nations, for sure. Perhaps even as a transition zone out west. But I’m not sure all of southern and central Ontario works in that model. The northern part maybe. But southern Ontario from Windsor to Kingston mirrors its Yankee neighbour- from Industrial Detroit’s Windsor satellite to the old farmlands of the Thames valley, through Niagara and into areas across the Lake from New York. Loyalist version of Yankeedom at the start. And still with many of the same norms- progressivism [at first just in the capitalist/technical sense but later in the ideological one], progressive religion [dominated by the United Church kind of Protestantism], statism, elitism in culture, for long a tug of war between big business orientation and farmer populism].

    Anyway. Random thoughts.

    This discussion in the context of the current election reminds me of “Amerika” circa 1987, as the Soviets set up an independent state of “Heartland”. It was all about the common good, you see:

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  33. I am not a soybean farmer or a bona fide expert in Iowa, but my mom was born and raised there, and I’ve visited the state well over a dozen times. I was amazed how much of the vote Trump was able to get. Everything about his personality, the tone, the crudeness, being loud, getting in people’s faces, is about as anti-Iowa as you can get. I swear everyone who voted for him must have felt in their bones they didn’t like him, but decided to vote for him anyway.

    I obviously don’t know how close people in Iowa and Ohio are genetically, but having been to Columbus a few times to visit family there, the Ohioans I’ve meet sure seem like transplants from Iowa. And at least on TV Kasich is about as Iowa a guy can get without a cornfield in his backyard.

    So, prediction: Kasich wins Ohio tomorrow, by a larger margin than polling predicts.

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  34. Why are you so averse to to acknowledging that Catholic “ethnics” are much more leftist on average than “old-stock” Americans

    Because they’re not, at least not always, and a lot depends on which ethnics of each we’re talking about, and on what issue.

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  35. Yeah, as a Canadian I bridled at that one too. But although they do not feel the same to me [Maritimers seem more reserved than New Englanders to me, but then my experience of New England is more Boston than Maine or even rural Mass]

    Well there’s your problem. :) As my Mainer wife is found of saying, about the area south of I-495/I-90, “that’s not New England.”

    Not much changes when you cross the St. Croix river.

    The Midlands seem to me similarly a tough sell, but perhaps I’m not looking deeply enough at settlement patterns and just at superficial culture.

    Even with superficial culture. The Midlands is full of Germans, and that makes a lot of difference from points north and from points south.

    Ontario was settled by people from the Philadelphia area, also.

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  36. Look at this, granted it doesn’t take into account nuances of ethnicity, region, etc. Catholics in eg Louisiana not more liberal than Prot neighbors http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/catholics-real-liberals/

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  37. Look at this, granted it doesn’t take into account nuances of ethnicity, region, etc. Catholics in eg Louisiana not more liberal than Prot neighbors http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/catholics-real-liberals/

    A future post will make the problems with these comparisons glaringly clear. But for now, it’s enough to say 1. which Catholics? 2. Who calls themselves a Protestant?

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  38. Anonymous
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    White Protestants, both Evangelical and Mainline Protestants, seem to be more Republican than white Catholics:

    http://www.pewforum.org/2012/02/02/trends-in-party-identification-of-religious-groups-affiliation/

    Mormons seem to be the most Republican group. I don’t know if they’re technically Protestants or not, though they tend to be descended from Protestants.

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  39. “The Midlands seem to me similarly a tough sell”

    I’ve not been buying this whole “nations” concept, and I realized with Random Observer’s point that the sticking point for me has been “Midland”. The region on the map even looks wrong, an incoherent mess of what looks like couldn’t plausible be fit in with “Yankeedom” or “Greater Appalachia”. But I might be able to buy the concept with some fixes.

    Just put Ontario with “Yankeedom” and “Midland” looks less ridiculous, plus the eastern and western halves of “Yankeedom” are linked, and Random Observer makes a good cultural case for this.

    I’m not sure how much these regions are supposed to be defined by historical settlement patterns. “Yankeedom” makes no sense on that basis. Yes, New Englanders went west, but then tended to go to northeastern Ohio, and to the Pacific Northwest. They didn’t go to Minnesota and Wisconsin, which got alot of Scandinavians and Germans. Later the Irish and Italians came to New England, pushing out the Yankees, but are nowhere to be found in the upper Midwest. Politically and culturally, there is definitely a link which has been called “liberal Puritanism”, and which includes at least Toronto as well, but whereever this comes from I don’t think it comes from 18th and 19th century settlement history.

    Getting back to Midland, rural central Pennsylvania, or “Pennsyltucky” as I’ve heard it called within the state, should be assigned to Greater Appalachia. Similar landscape and culture, as well as voting patterns except during the decades when the CIO was strong. The Greater Philadelphia area doesn’t fit with neighboring central Pennsylvania, or New York, or Maryland/ Tidewater, and is probably best understood as a detached part of “Midland”. However, the main western portion of Midland should coincide essentially with the lower Midwest, it should include pretty much all of Illinois, most of Ohio (southeastern OH can stay in Greater Appalachia), more of Indiana, and probably also Milwaukee and Detroit. Missouri, apart from St. Louis and KC, is in Greater Appalachia. These changes would make Midland a much more cohesive region.

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  40. This is great. It matches my own observations about death rate from prescription painkiller overdose and Trump/Cruz voting in Kentucky:

    http://www.unz.com/isteve/primaries-open-thread-republican/#comment-1349751

    One quibble, unrelated to the post’s main topic, is your lumping Ontario in with much of the Midwest. It may be the British Empire’s “Midwest” but is much more like New England than like central Ohio. Other than multicultural Toronto and Arabic/Italian Windsor, it’s very and proudly British.

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  41. I’m not sure how much these regions are supposed to be defined by historical settlement patterns. “Yankeedom” makes no sense on that basis. Yes, New Englanders went west, but then tended to go to northeastern Ohio, and to the Pacific Northwest. They didn’t go to Minnesota and Wisconsin

    You’re wrong. See Genes, Climate, and Even More Maps of the American Nations

    Later the Irish and Italians came to New England, pushing out the Yankees

    They did get a lot of Irish and Italians, but Yankees are very much present.

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  42. It may be the British Empire’s “Midwest” but is much more like New England than like central Ohio. Other than multicultural Toronto and Arabic/Italian Windsor, it’s very and proudly British.

    As I noted above, the settlers to Ontario came from the Philadelphia area.

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  43. White Protestants, both Evangelical and Mainline Protestants, seem to be more Republican than white Catholics:

    Indeed. But there are a few clues. Note the difference between Mainline and Evangelical Protestants.

    Also note the “unaffiliated” group.

    Anyways, more on this in a future post.

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  44. As I noted above, the settlers to Ontario came from the Philadelphia area

    This was true of Kingston. Other areas were not. St. Catherine’s was settled by Loyalists mostly from upstate New York. At any rate, the small numbers of Loyalist settlers in Ontario (estimated at about 6,000) were swamped by later waves of British settlement. The names of the towns (i.e., London with the Thames river, Stratford with its Shakespeare festival, Scottish Guelph), formal gardens, etc. are very British, and not at all Iowan. Prior to massive immigration in the mid 20th century, Toronto was basically 90% British and 10% Jewish and was controlled by the Orange Order. Ontario is still more British than even New England.

    Demographically, Ontario’s main ethnic groups are:

    English, 24.7%; Scottish, 17.5%; Irish, 16.5%; French, 11.2%; German 9.5%.

    In Ohio it is: German, 26.5%, Irish 14.1%; African-American 12.2%; English 9%; Italian 6.4%.

    In Massachusetts it is 22.5% Irish, 13.5% Italian, 11.4% English, 8% French.

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  45. Trumpster Linkage | Uncouth Reflections
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    […] looks at a variety of maps to see what can be learned about Trump’s […]

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  46. How can you group heavily German/Scandi (Italian and Slavic in cities) upper midwest with the NE (least German region) is beyond me. Yes they’re both left of center on average, but in a different way.

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  47. Demographically, Ontario’s main ethnic groups are

    That’s self-reported ancestry though. See earlier comments by me on why that’s an issue.

    But yes subsequent British settlement (and other immigration) did make a demographic impact.

    Anyone know where in Britain those settlers came from?

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  48. The area was heavily settled by Yankees from the east, in addition to those Germanic settlers.

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  49. But yes subsequent British settlement (and other immigration) did make a demographic impact

    The impact was huge. Ontario got most of Canada’s 19th century immigrants, most of whom were British Protestants. It is only a little exaggeration to say that non-Toronto Ontario is to Britain, what Quebec is to France, although its Britishness derives from the 19th century rather than the 17th-18th centuries. The towns have British architecture, British monuments (Boer War, etc.), and British settlement. Outside if heavily Chinese, Indian, Italian, and Jamaican multi-culti Toronto (an Australian friend told me it reminds her a lot of her native Melbourne – could this be said of any American Midland town?) the culture is provincial British – people drink hot tea, they have English gardens, etc.

    Similarities between Ontario and Iowa or Illinois are mostly topographic and superficial: they are largely flat and have farms; if you drive on the highway from Detroit to Toronto it will look like Indiana, but that’s as far as the similarity goes. Off the highway you have towns like Stratford with its Shakespeare festival, Chatham on the Thames (70% British), etc.

    Anyone know where in Britain those settlers came from?

    http://www.englishtocanada.com/canada’s_english.htm

    In terms of the English, everywhere – though it varied by time. Originally from the North (Yorkshire, Cornwall, Devon), the from the south, and then agricultural laborers form everywhere.

    A lot of the Scots are highlanders, and Ontario has annual Highland Games in Glengarry (largest such outside Scotland).

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  50. Found a snippet here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_Canada#Ethnic_Groups

    The Great Migration from Britain from 1815-1850 has been numbered at 800,000. The population of Upper Canada in 1837 is documented at 409,000. Given the lack of detailed census data it is difficult to assess the relative size of the American & Canadian born “British” and the foreign born “British.” By the time of the first census in 1841, only

    half of the population of Upper Canada were foreign born British

    I don’t know why wiki states “only”. Estimated 50% of the population in Ontario being born in Britain is rather substantial.

    As I had mentioned, Toronto prior to the mid 20th century was so Protestant and so dominated by the Orange Order that to was referred to as the Belfast of Canada:

    https://www.timeshighereducation.com/books/review-toronto-the-belfast-of-canada-william-j-smyth

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  51. Anonymous
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    The pattern seems to go back generations:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/11911/protestant-catholic-vote.aspx

    It goes back to when the share of unaffiliated voters was negligible:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_religious_demographics_of_the_United_States

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  52. Yes. And there are reasons for that, including two very big reasons. Future post.

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  53. Off topic

    Post traumatic disorder need neurotic disposition to express (sh)itself (because trauma is not a good thing to feel of course,

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  54. Saw how my native Mississippi Delta was an outlier for “Friendly and Conventional”. No surprises there. It’s an outlier for, well, lots of things.

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  55. Well it is a separate “nation” from the surrounding area…

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  56. The Delta (defined by most as the alluvial plain between Memphis and Vickburg) has a lot of quirks. Black majority; whites mostly from Episcopal/Presbyterian, rather than Baptist/Pentacostal religious traditions; it also has that odd mix (Blacks, Anglos,Jews, Chinese, Lebanese, Greeks, Italians) that formed in the 19th century that I associate with certain parts of the Caribbean; party boy genteel; people there have never been hung up about alcohol, even during Prohibition.

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  57. The Delta

    The plantation economy envisioned by God.

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  58. I have an Italian friend who lives in St Louis. He has been a lifelong Democrat but now supports Trump with a tremendous passion. He’s just one person but an example of how Trump appeals to Italians.

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  59. Gender war, nothing more.

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  60. What’s the evidence that “genetic diversity (even among whites)” is relevant at the inter-ethnic level? Yes, I know that political persuasion is heritable, but that doesn’t answer the question.

    How do you know that the political difference between, say, Germans and Scotch-Irish is significantly influenced by genetics? How do you disentangle genetic and cultural causes when genetic and cultural groupings are roughly coextensive? (I haven’t read the linked articles.)

    N.B. I come from Friendly and Conventional-stan, so I’m asking this question in good faith.

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  61. I actually find trump super easy to understand. he is the master of pandering. he can and will tell you what you want to hear, 100 out of 100 conversations. it is the follow through I am worry about. will he be flat like all politicians? or will he actually be different.

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  62. Why so much anti-Semitism in Minneapolis-and for such a long time?:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Minneapolis#Politics.2C_corruption.2C_anti-Semitism_and_social_change

    Minneapolis was known for anti-Semitism beginning in the 1880s and through the 1950s.[29] The city was described as “the capital of anti-Semitism in the United States” in 1946 by Carey McWilliams[30] and in 1959 by Gunther Plaut.[31] At that time the city’s Jews were excluded from membership in many organizations, faced employment discrimination, and were considered unwelcome residents in some neighborhoods.[32] Jews in Minneapolis were also not allowed to buy homes in certain neighborhoods of Minneapolis.[33] In the 1940s a lack of anti-Semitism was noted in the Midwest with the exception of Minneapolis. McWilliams noted in 1946 the lack of anti-Semitism in neighboring Saint Paul.[34]

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  63. What’s the evidence that “genetic diversity (even among whites)” is relevant at the inter-ethnic level? Yes, I know that political persuasion is heritable, but that doesn’t answer the question.

    Actually it does. Look closely at the table, which was provided specifically for this reason. This is from a very large twin and family sample (N > 20,000). Shared environment and “gene-environment correlation” effects are non-existent. This means that local environment effects have no impact on political persuasion. There are many other behavioral genetic studies, including the large studies from the Add Health sample (which is a nationally representative sample) or the population-based studies out of Scandinavia that find no visible impact of local environment.

    How do you know that the political difference between, say, Germans and Scotch-Irish is significantly influenced by genetics? How do you disentangle genetic and cultural causes when genetic and cultural groupings are roughly coextensive? (I haven’t read the linked articles.)

    It’s generally a good idea to read the linked articles first before asking such question. But in any case, in addition to the above, there are the clear geographic (and persistent) patterns between ancestry and politics. When people move, they generally take their politics and culture with them, unless they were significantly sorted for those attributes. I recommend reading the links for additional detail.

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  64. Mar 20, 2015 The Cycle of The State (by Daniel Sanchez)

    Daniel Sanchez combines the theories of Robert Higgs and Hans-Hermann Hoppe to form a theory of the cycle of the state.

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  65. True. I had time for about a third, then moved on.

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  66. Guess they knew something?

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  67. That is the protestors who are violent, koolaid drinker. Why don’t you ask the LSM why Rahm didn’t provide the proper police protection instead of repeating LSM lies?

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  68. Unsurprising since Trump has a very typical pompous and crude NYC personality, and said personality is in large part due to the hundreds of thousands of pompous, crude siciliani that America inexplicably chose to allow to immigrate.

    Trump is a Sicilianized German-Scot.

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  69. Lol @ “Sicilianized”. It’s as if you haven’t read a single thing on this blog. His ancestry is perfectly capable of explaining Trump (and it isn’t as if peoples don’t massively vary within themselves either). Interestingly, his mom is from the Hebrides, a particularly Scandinavian-influenced area of Scotland.

    Anyway, what I can see based on this post is that it’s primarily the white Sanders demographic that has been responsible for actually Making America Great™ which is unsurprising, whether one agrees with their general ideology (I usually don’t).

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  70. Why so much anti-Semitism in Minneapolis-and for such a long time?

    Luther.

    Irish (and German) St Paul was more welcoming.

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  71. Trump is a Sicilianized German-Scot.

    My mom’s family was German-Scot, from Queens, and could hold their own with any Sicilian. Unlike the Drumpfs, though, they were Catholic, and laid the bricks rather than owned them.

    Ethel Merman was also a German-Scot mix. If you count German Jews, then so was Oscar Hammerstein II.

    You could blame (downstate) New York’s pushiness on the Irish. Or the Dutch. Or even the Germans. I think they’re all guilty!

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  72. In 1984, my Northern Ontario elementary school classroom sported a large poster titled something like, “Ontario: 200 Years of History” (repeated in French of course.) When I asked what 1984 was the anniversary of that marked the start of Ontario history, I was told 1784 was the year the loyalists arrived in large numbers. I guess that wasn’t true, since 6000 isn’t many relative to 400,000, unless they’re Syrians or something.

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  73. Great job Jayman! Only a tad discursive, and more self-editing (less is more) would help for a blog post.

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  74. No, the fact of a negligible shared-environment effect does not answer the question (with one qualification, see below). The question was, whether culture and genes can be disentangled as explanations of between-regional variation, where the regions are the “nations” given here, or any other partition where genetics and culture are coextensive.

    Obviously, a negligible shared-environment effect within regions does not, in itself, say anything about the environmental effect between regions. I’ll bet even you won’t try to deny that! You can’t tell about environmental effects between, say, the “Left Coast” and “Greater Appalachia” from looking at behavioral genetics studies conducted within those two “nations.”

    And note that it’s not enough to include inter-ethnic adoption within the nations. The culture effect that you’d want to test for is “nationwide” or at least wider than the family: The idea is that if Appalachia is affected by Scotch-Irish culture, then that Scotch-Irish culture will affect non-Scotch-Irish people in Appalachia as well.

    So the qualification is that if you did have a study with a significant amount of adoption across these “nations”—e.g., California parents adopting Tennessee children and vice versa—then you could draw the conclusion that you claimed. The more cross-regional adoption, the more powerful the study. It would be really interesting to see a study like that. It wasn’t clear (correct me if I’m wrong), but I don’t think the data in the table are from such a cross-regional study.

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  75. Obviously, a negligible shared-environment effect within regions does not, in itself, say anything about the environmental effect between regions. I’ll bet even you won’t try to deny that! You can’t tell about environmental effects between, say, the “Left Coast” and “Greater Appalachia” from looking at behavioral genetics studies conducted within those two “nations.”

    Aaron, yes, but a zero shared environment emerges from national samples as well. If subs growing up in the same area were more the same because of local environment it’d turn up in the shared environment. It doesn’t.

    All attempts to find neighborhood effects turn up nothing, for all manner of traits. See the work of Amir Sariaslan.

    Then there is the negligible rGE effect found in this study…

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  76. I read Woodard’s book and as I recall many of the Yankee Loyalists spilled over into the Maritimes after the Revolution (as well as into Ontario). Indeed, the people who originally settled the Maritimes (Newfoundland, which is heavily Scots-Irish possible excepted) came from the same area of England (East Anglia) as the so-called “Pilgrims.”

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  77. New York was always “pushy”–dating all the way back to when it was still Nieuw Amsterdam. And it was polyglot too. It was already a thriving economic center consisting of people whose prime objective was getting, spending, and getting some more.

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  78. Why?

    Because Jews are disgusting liars, very simple. “Antisemitism” is a righteous, reasonable response to Jews’ creepy behavior.

    Bernie Sanders is a perfect example of the loud mouthed, but dumb Jew.
    All talk.

    • Agree: RaceRealist88
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  79. Rallies are “love fests”.
    “Protesters” cause violence.

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  80. You just described Hitlery.

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  81. They watch 3 different Lib media outlets, and think they know the news.

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  82. Indeed, the people who originally settled the Maritimes (Newfoundland, which is heavily Scots-Irish possible excepted) came from the same area of England (East Anglia)

    Yup, pretty much. Though Newfoundland was settled originally from people from Southwest England. It received heavy Catholic Irish immigration.

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  83. Just watched CNN where they gave us the European perspective. It was given by an Indian female ( who else) who happens be a lecturer in a London University. What a surprise: it turns out that Europeans prefer Clinton to Trump by a large extent.

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  84. As I had mentioned, Toronto prior to the mid 20th century was so Protestant and so dominated by the Orange Order that to was referred to as the Belfast of Canada:

    Torontonians used to escape to Buffalo for some fun. That tells you something right there.

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  85. Trump rallies are becoming increasing more violent because of stepped up opposition by left wing radicals (Move On, Black Lives Matter, and allies) who shout, throw things at Trump supporters, break the windows of cars with Trump bumper stickers, and try to cause as much trouble as possible. Then left wing media can show videos of those “violent” Trump rallies.

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  86. Very true. Dour Victorian-era Protestants (and their heirs) aren’t as much fun as Catholics.

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  87. A history of old-school labor unionism make a difference.

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  88. hilary is waaaaaay worst than donald. reason is that she isn’t fresh anymore. everything she does has been done by her countless times before. donald is new, hence his words still carry some weight. I am not holding my breath as this is just repeat of obama’s “change”

    donald vs hilary = fresh liar(a huge maybe) vs known liar.

    donald is being a better politician than all other politicians right now. I just hope he is different, instead of another fake.

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  89. That could well explain a lot.

    Without checking for the actual differences, I assume that higher educational attainment would explain a portion.

    Also I think it is because there are many more cities and counties in the South where bloc voting has traditionally been considered beneficial for blacks.

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  90. Yeah, I can see bloc voting feeling more imperative in the South. Whereas in Northern industrial cities there is more than one set of moral-political institutions and struggle. Given this, you wouldn’t necessarily need human capital differences to account for an extra 20% vote for Sanders – though I wouldn’t rule it out either. I could see WEIRDO labor institutions and political education resonating with the subset of more WEIRDO inclined skilled black laborers, which in turn may have made up a higher percentage of certain industrial centers than down South.

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  91. Also – blacks in Michigan are probably more likely to be part white

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  92. Also – blacks in Michigan are probably more likely to be part white

    Yup.

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  93. The way people vote is a reflection of who and indeed what they are. It has nothing to do with how they were raised by their parents, where they grew up, or where they live now (except to the extent current self-interest is involved).

    You make the most sweeping, outrageous and unnuanced generalizations. I have no clue why Unz lets you blog here or why anyone reads you. Your blog is a monument to arrogant ignorance, and a disgrace to this website.

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  94. The way people vote is a reflection of who and indeed what they are. It has nothing to do with how they were raised by their parents, where they grew up, or where they live now (except to the extent current self-interest is involved).

    You make the most sweeping, outrageous and unnuanced generalizations. I have no clue why Unz lets you blog here or why anyone reads you. Your blog is a monument to arrogant ignorance, and a disgrace to this website.

    But justified by the evidence. Did you see the chart at the start of the post?

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  95. I did. I don’t dispute that genes are important but obviously environment plays a role. That’s why Korean babies adopted by American parents don’t typically grow up to worship the Supreme Leader and believe in fan death.

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  96. That’s why Korean babies adopted by American parents don’t typically grow up to worship the Supreme Leader…

    Why do you conclude this is due to the influence of the American parents rather of American culture? (Our MSM has a rather different political line than that of the N. Koreans.)

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  97. Our MSM has a rather different political line than that of the N. Koreans.

    They do?

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  98. Why is there a noticeable and significant difference between the % of blacks voting for Bernie in the Northern States as opposed to his % in the Southern States?

    They’ve heard of him?

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  99. Right, I agree on that. But my point is that the kind of cultural effects we’re talking about—Scandinavian culture, Scotch-Irish culture, etc.—will probably also be at a much wider scale, i.e., lower resolution. That is, even if there were a neighborhood in some Appalachian city that had a higher percentage of residents who were of, say, English and German ancestry, that neighborhood would still be influenced by the Scotch-Irish culture of the region.

    I think that’s really the only point on which I’m disagreeing with you. If the cultural effects worked only at the neighborhood level or lower, then the negligible shared-environment effect from adoption studies would in fact imply no cultural effect. But I don’t think that’s the case, and I’m sure that you can’t just assume it’s the case.

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  100. I knew that was going to come up.

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  101. Maybe photos of those who participated in exit polling would be informative. (I know that skin tone is only a rough indicator.)

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  102. Some of my German ancestors started in PA, went to NC and then to SC. They were “swamped” and obliterated by the Scotch-Irish culture in SC. Some of their brothers and sisters who stayed in PA went on to become Pennsylvania Dutch.

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  103. That’s why Korean babies adopted by American parents don’t typically grow up to worship the Supreme Leader and believe in fan death.

    Has anyone ever done a trans-racial adoption study on political beliefs? I’m not sure they have. But unless you have data on that one that I don’t know about, your claim isn’t actually justified.

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  104. That’s why Korean babies adopted by American parents don’t typically grow up to worship the Supreme Leader…

    Why do you conclude this is due to the influence of the American parents rather of American culture? (Our MSM has a rather different political line than that of the N. Koreans.)

    Or that this even happens at all?

    Most Korean adoptees in the West are South Korean, by the way. In either case, I don’t think there is any adoption data on the matter (I’ll look). There is certainly is no data on the political beliefs of North Koreans…

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  105. I think that’s really the only point on which I’m disagreeing with you. If the cultural effects worked only at the neighborhood level or lower, then the negligible shared-environment effect from adoption studies would in fact imply no cultural effect. But I don’t think that’s the case, and I’m sure that you can’t just assume it’s the case.

    From national samples, though?

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  106. They’ve heard of him?

    They (we) have as many TV’s as anyone.

    I catch your drift though and I agree. It is much better to be well educated, like you, for example.

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  107. Just because the samples are nationwide doesn’t mean that the adoptions are inter-regional.

    I was assuming that most adoption is local, within these “nations,” or regions. That was the qualification that I spelled out explicitly in my first comment. Is it really typical that parents adopt children born halfway across the country? The more inter-regional adoptions there are, the more powerful the test. As I said in my comment, I’d be interested in seeing an answer to the question of how many adoptions are inter-regional.

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  108. Almost no one will read it.

    Well, from looking at the front page of Unz.com, I guess you were wrong.

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  109. I just read an article in VOX that consulted four experts on this subject.

    One expert connected it to the higher % of blacks in the Democratic total in a state.

    One expert connected it to the generational divide, younger people voting for Sanders.

    One expert said it was because Sanders did not campaign in the South.

    One expert said they he didn’t know because there are no analyses of black voter behavior like there are for whites.

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  110. “we see Bernie is decidedly weak among White Democrats across the Dixie nations, and weak across much of the old Rust Belt (central Yankeedom/the Midlands).”

    There were enough primaries in “central Yankeedom/the Midlands” to be possible to know that?

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  111. But unless you have data on that one that I don’t know about, your claim isn’t actually justified.

    Isn’t this a quixotic methodological purism? Some ordinary (nonscientific) knowledge is pretty secure, such as that some beliefs vary with culture.

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  112. Some ordinary (nonscientific) knowledge is pretty secure, such as that some beliefs vary with culture.

    Except what we’re talking about here is this: where does culture come from?

    To answer that question, you need science.

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  113. The geography of Donald Trump’s support | Phil Ebersole's Blog
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    […] The Donald Trump Phenomenon Part I: the American Nations on Jayman’s Blog. […]

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  114. Catholic ethnics, being more clannish compared to other Europeans are far more Nationalistic. You see this often if you know Irish or Italian families, they are far more likely to be outspoken about their ethnicity, they often display four leaf clovers and Italian flags, even when they’re 3rd or 4th generation Americans.

    So in talking about relevance to Trump support, the key factor won’t be a liberal-conservative spectrum but rather a tendency towards Nationalism, patriotism.

    The modern brand of “conservative”, like Cruz, has attempted to stoke the nationalist vote, but it has not gotten the Catholic ethnic vote because it is a fake Nationalism which has always been more focused on unfettered globalized trade, idealistic interventionist foreign policy, and token immigration enforcement. So it makes historical voting patterns of catholic ethnics in America a bit of a non-starter as they’ve never really had the option to follow a Nationalism which gives them the most fervor.

    Thats my take and admittedly probably has blind spots. Besides the obvious snag (How does nationalism for co-ethnics in Italy transfer to pride in America): If nationalism appeals to catholic ethnics because of higher historical rates of cousin marriage, for instance, you may expect arabs to be the most nationalist of all. But perhaps it makes sense that they aren’t, you can overshoot the mark and be too clannish. Its possible Catholic ethnics have the inbreeding “sweet spot” for the type of nationalism that Trump is selling: Patriotic ingroup, but not too inbred that you lose all sense of nation altogether. Thoughts on that, Jayman?

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  115. Catholic ethnics, being more clannish compared to other Europeans are far more Nationalistic. You see this often if you know Irish or Italian families, they are far more likely to be outspoken about their ethnicity, they often display four leaf clovers and Italian flags, even when they’re 3rd or 4th generation Americans.

    Especially the ones in America.

    If nationalism appeals to catholic ethnics because of higher historical rates of cousin marriage, for instance, you may expect arabs to be the most nationalist of all.

    But they are:

    asabiyyah | hbd chick

    Even the clannish Whites in America don’t really care too much about their fellow Whites (even their co-ethnics) past the extent that it’s convenient. Their mostly out for their own interests.

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  116. Demography Is Electoral Destiny—Will Midwest Niceness Be A Problem For Trump? | VDARE - premier news outlet for patriotic immigration reform
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    […] Well, JayMan’s been blogging on this year’s election. If you only have time for one of his posts, read the one titled The Donald Trump Phenomenon: Part 1: The American Nations. […]

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