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SouthFront has just released a very interesting video analysis warning about the possibility of a war involving Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and, possibility, Syria, Iran, and Israel. That, of course, also means that Russia and the US would be involved. First, please see the video here:

https://southfront.org/israel-saudi-arabia-setting-preconditions-for-war-with-hezbollah/

What I propose to do is go over the implications of such a scenario.

The context: a total AngloZionist failure on all fronts

To understand the context for these developments we first need to quickly summarize what has taken place in Syria and the rest of the Middle-East in the past few years.

The initial AngloZionist plan was to overthrow Assad and replace him with the Takfiri crazies (Daesh, al-Qaeda, al-Nusra, ISIS – call them whatever you want). Doing this would achieve the following goals:

  1. Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces and security services.
  2. Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan, but further north.
  3. Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
  4. Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
  5. Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
  6. Breakup Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
  7. Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
  8. Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and forces the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
  9. Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
  10. Eliminate all center of Shia power in the Middle-East.

That was an ambitious plan, but the Israelis felt pretty confident that their US vassal-state would provide the resources needed to achieve it. And now this entire plan has collapsed due to the very high effectiveness of an informal but yet formidable alliance between Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah.

To say that the Israelis are seething with rage and in a state of total panic would be an understatement. You think I am exaggerating? Then look at it from the Israeli point of view:

 

  1. The Syrian state has survived and its armed and security forces are now far more capable than they were before the war started (remember how they *almost* lost the war initially? The Syrians had to bounce back, learn some very hard lessons, but by all reports they have made tremendous improvements and while at a critical moment Iran and Hezbollah were literally “plugging holes” in the Syrian frontlines and “extinguishing fires” on local flashpoints, now the Syrians are doing a very good job of liberating large chunks of their country, including every single city in Syria).
  2. Not only is Syria stronger, but the Iranians and Hezbollah are all over the country now which is driving the Israelis into a state of panic and rage.
  3. Lebanon is rock solid, even the latest Saudi attempt to kidnap Hariri is backfiring.
  4. Syria will remain unitary and Kurdistan is not happening. Millions of displaced refugees are returning home.
  5. Israel and the US look like total idiots and, even worse, as losers with no credibility left.

 

This is all a disaster for the AngloZionists who now are falling back to their typical attitude when met with resistance: if we can’t control it, then let’s destroy it.

The plan: force the US to attack Iran

The following is only my speculation and nothing more. I have no way of knowing what the Axis of Kindness (US-Israel-KSA) has come up with, but I feel that I can take an educated guess. For one thing, this is nothing new. The Saudis and the other Gulf states have in the past made noises about intervening in Syria and we know that the Saudis have intervened in Bahrain and Yemen. As for the Israelis, their record of (completely illegal) military interventions is so long that we can safely assume that the Israelis will be involved in *any* ugly or evil plan to lay the region to waste. The main problem for the Saudis and the Israelis is that they have bad armies. Expensive ones – yes. High-tech ones – yes. But their problem is that their only true area of expertise is massacring defenseless civilians, that they are real experts at. But in terms of real warfare, especially against truly formidable adversaries like the Iranians or Hezbollah, the “ZioWahabis” (what a combo!) don’t stand a chance and they know it (even if they never admit it). Imagine how frustrating that must be: you basically control the US which you have turned into a vassal-state, you spent billions and billions of dollars in equipping and training your bloated armed forces, but at the end of the day the Shias are just laughing in your face. And, for some reason you cannot fathom, every time you try to “teach them a lesson”, it is you who has to crawl back home in total shame to lick our wounds and try to hush up the magnitude of your defeat. That hurts, badly. So a plan to make the Shias pay for it had to be concocted. Here is what I think it will be.

First, the goal will not be to defeat Hezbollah or Iran anywhere. For all their racist rhetoric and hubris, the Israelis know that neither they nor, even less so, the Saudis have what it would take to seriously threaten Iran, or even Hezbollah. But their plan is, I think, much cruder: to trigger a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.

I have written many articles explaining that the US military does not have the means to win a war against Iran. And that might be the problem here: the US commanders know full well that and they are therefore doing whatever it takes to tell the Neocons “can’t do, so sorry!” (that is the only reason why a US attack on Iran has not happened yet). From an Israeli point of view, this is totally unacceptable and the solution is simple: simple force the US into a war they really don’t want. After all, who cares how many US goyim will die? As for the Iranians, the goal of a Israeli-triggered US attack on Iran would not be to defeat Iran, but only to hurt it, very very badly. That is the real goal. As far as the Israelis are concerned, not only don’t they give a damn about how many non-Jews will die (Judaic ethics teach that all non-Jews are most likely deserving to die anyway) as long as their Master Race benefits from it. Simply put: to them we are only tools, tools capable of thought, but tools nonetheless. That is also how Neocons view us, of course. In fact, I can just about imagine the glee of the Israelis seeing that the Shia and Sunni Muslims are killing each other. Throwing in a few Christians only makes it even better.

So it’s all simple: have the Saudis attack Lebanon and/or Iran, observe how they lose, then switch on the propaganda machine at full power and explain to the average TV-watching goy that Iran is a threat to the region and the aggressor here, that the Saudis are only defending themselves from Iranian aggression. And if that is not enough, they scream “oy gevalt!” in the US Congress and have the prostitutes on the Hill explain to the American people that the US must “lead the Free World” to “defend” the “only democracy in the Middle-East” against Iranian “aggression” and that the US have a “responsibility” to prevent the Iranians of “seizing the Saudi oil fields” etc. etc. etc.

ORDER IT NOW

It’s a win-win situation for the Israelis as long as there are not caught red-handed manipulating it all. But we can count on our beloved Ziomedia to make sure that no such “anti-Semitic” accusations are ever made, even if Israeli fingerprints are all over the place.

Moon of Alabama has just posted an interesting article entitled “Revealed – Saudis Plan To Give Up Palestine – For War On Iran” which seems plausible to me and which further corroborates my thesis that the goal is to get the US to attack Iran. Of course, the very notion that the Saudis could give up Palestine implies two outright outlandish notions: first, that the KSA has not already sold out the Palestinians many times over and, second, that the Saudis could somehow “deliver” Palestine to the Zionist Entity. Still, I recommend the reading of this article which contains a lot of very interesting revelations about the true nature and intentions of the Saudis regime.

As for the Israelis, they are offering to share intelligence (read: targeting data) with the Saudis. How touching it is to see these two medieval, backward and generally evil regimes are so willing to work together. At least they are both now showing their true, ugly, faces!

The counter-plan

The Iranians really have no good options here. The least bad option is to do what Putin is doing in the Donbass: remain externally passive at the risk of having the not too gifted accuse you of caving in. Regardless, if your enemy’s plan is not to win, but to lose, then refusing to engage him makes perfectly good sense, at least on the strategic level and temporarily.

I am not suggesting that the Iranians not fight back on a tactical level. Even the Russian Task Force in Syria has official orders to defend itself if attacked. I am talking at a strategic level. Basically, tempting as it might be, the Iranians have to refrain from striking back at Saudi Arabia or itself. Ditto for Israel. In a paradoxical way, Iran cannot do what Hezbollah did in 2006 and the reason for that is very simple: by the time the first Hezbollah missiles began raining down on Israel the Israelis had already reached their highest level of escalation (their usual vicious campaign to make civilians pay). But in the case of Iran, the AngloZionist Empire could step up the level of violence way beyond what the Israelis and the Saudis could ever do by themselves. The combined power of Israel and the Saudis is dwarfed by the kind of firepower the US (CENTCOM+NATO) could unleash against Iran and it is therefore crucial that the Iranians not give the US Americans any pretext to officially join the attack. Instead of destroying the regime in Riyadh the Iranians should let, or even help, the regime in Riyadh destroy itself. I think that the Saudis have even less staying power than the US or the Israelis, so there is no need to force a rapid outcome of any war between Iran and the KSA.

Needless to say, if the AngloZionist Empire joins in and unleashes its full military might against Iran, something which I consider a very real possibility, then all bets are off and Iran should, and will, retaliate with a full set of symmetrical and asymmetrical responses, including strikes against Israel and the Saudis, and even strikes against CENTCOM bases in the entire region. However, such a situation would have catastrophic consequences for Iran and should therefore be avoided if at all possible.

At the end of the day the best hope the world has is that a US American patriot will see through this rather obvious plot to “wag the dog” and tell the ZioWahabis “not on my watch” like Admiral Fallon did in 2007 (will that honorable man ever get the historical recognition he deserves, say a Nobel Peace Prize? Possibly never in this world, but in the judgment of God he shall be called a “son of God” (Matt 5:9)). By themselves the Israelis and the Saudi are just a gang of medieval thugs which even Hezbollah can terrify and force to run. Their only real power is the power they have in Congress and the US Ziomedia: the power of corruption, the ability to lie, deceive and betray. I know for a fact that there are many US officers on all levels in the US armed forces which see straight through these Zionist smokescreen and whose loyalty is to the United State and not to the nasty little Zionist Entity in Palestine. I have studied and worked with such patriots and there are plenty of them in the Saker Community today. I am not suggesting that we should count on top US commanders refusing to execute a Presidential order (like this article is suggesting). The truth is that anybody who has served in the military, especially at a high command level (Pentagon, CENTCOM), knows that there are all sorts of creative ways to make sure that something does not happen. Finally, I have not lost all hope that Trump could do the right thing. Yes, he is a weak man, yes, he is now cornered and has no allies left, but when faced with the horrendous consequences of a attack on Iran he still might say “no” and order his staff to come up with some other plan. Trump might also realize that refusing to wage war on Iran would be his best revenge against those who have smeared him and who are now apparently trying to impeach him.

Conclusion: will the attack happen?

In short, probably yes. The simple truth is that the nutcase regimes in power in Israel and Saudi Arabia are cornered and desperate. The rise in power of Iran over the past decade has been immense and irresistible. The recent failure of the ZioWahabis to bring even tiny Qatar to heel is indicative of the tremendous erosion in power and credibility these wacko regimes have suffered. I believe that the recent trips by Bibi Netanyahu and even the Saudi King to Moscow are all part of an effort on the part of the ZioWhabis to gauge the Russian response to an attack on Iran.

[Sidebar: While we will never know what was said behind closed doors, my guess is that Putin indicated in clear terms to the ZioWahabis that Russia will not step aside and let them strike at Iran. In truth, Russia has very limited options. Unless Russian personnel are directly attacked, Russia cannot just go to war in a overt and formal way, that would be way too dangerous, especially against the US. But Russia could immensely (and very rapidly) strengthen Iranian air defense capabilities by deploying her aircraft (A-50, MiG-31s, in Iran or even by flying them in from Russia to conduct surveillance flights. Russia can provide the Iranians with intelligence far beyond anything the Iranians could collect themselves. Likewise, the Russians could quietly deploy some of their electronic warfare systems to key locations in Iran. The US Americans would rapidly detect all this, but Russia would still have a “plausible deniability” on a political level. Finally, the Russians could do for Iran what they have done for Syria and integrate all the Iranian and Russian air defense capabilities into a single network thereby immensely improving the capabilities of the currently rather modest, but rapidly improving, Iranian air defense capabilities.]

At this moment in time it is pretty clear that an attack on Iran is being prepared and such an attack is possible or even likely. But it is not a done deal yet. For one thing the Saudis and
Israelis have a long history of empty threats and both regimes love posturing and grandstanding. And for all their bravado they do realize that Iran is a formidable and very sophisticated adversary. They probably also remember what happened when the Iraqis, with the full help and support from the US, the Soviet Union, France, Britain and pretty much everybody else attacked Iran when Iran was at its weakest. Following a long and horrible war, the Iranians are now stronger than ever, Saddam is dead and the Iranians are more or less in control of Iraq. Iran is simply not a good country to attack, especially with a lack of a clear vision of what “victory” constitutes. So you ought to be crazy to attack Iran. The problem is, of course, that the Saudis and the Israelis are crazy, they have proved that many times over. So our best hopes is that they might be just “crazy”, but not “that crazy”. Not much of a hope, but that’s the best we got.

 
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  1. Yawn

    From 2007:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/bushs-war-heating-up-attack-on-iran-imminent/?highlight=israel+iran

    Constantly making the same predictions over and over again won’t make them any more accurate. There’s even basically the same article on this website right now by Petras.

    Read More
    • Agree: Mikel
    • Troll: Kiza
    • Replies: @Rabbitnexus
    Practically nothing by way of conditions exists today compared to ten years ago, are you on drugs?
    , @Greasy William
    Even though Russian nationalist, Iran and Syria loving The Saker accusing another nation of having a bad army is just too ironic for words, the IDF really is shit.

    But it doesn't matter because:

    1. the Arab Islamic armies, including Hezbollah, are even more shit
    2. There will not be a 2nd war with Hezbollah. For the 10 billionth time, the next time we go to war with Lebanon we are not even going to bother sending the troops in. We are going to destroy all of Lebanon's water and electric plants from the air and wait for disease and starvation to annihilate the Lebanese people, after which we will resettle the land with Jews.

    But the fact that anybody in the year 2017, even one as retarded as The Saker, could seriously say that Israel is planning to attack Lebanon is just mind blowing. Why the Hell would Israel attack Hezbollah?

    Sorry homos, if you want a war, your Arab/Islamic pets are going to have to start it themselves. They know where to find us.

    How come they don't want to come out and play?
    , @anon
    Is there a science of prediction of whimsical l events " You may never crash your car ,hit a side rail or fly arcing through the atmosphere after hitting gas pedal at 120 miles per hour . But the possibility is part of the process . Sooner or later it would happen . The logic of having no accident until it happens will not hold water . Large number of historical precedence of safe uneventful driving will be given no consideration for clemency .

    . The regimes that want war against Syria-Lebanon-Iran are trying hard to get a war that they could win but they know the win would come at such a steep price that their own survival might depend on the wishful thinking and magic.

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support . This last one is still not forthcoming as it were 1991 , 2001 and 2003 . Not only that , they know the lying hypocrisy and shortchanging and plain back stabbing have left other countries more determined clever and independent. Thats why regimes that want war are waiting like the car driver for accident to happen even when it is not sought actively . It is schizophrenic, magical thinking on their part . These 3 saudi US Israel - countries stand alone circling like vulture and hoping that the cow drops dead.

    Because even a robust reprisal by Syria in future will not bring back the coalition of the willing.

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  2. Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.

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    • Replies: @jackmcg
    "Israel has one of the best armies in the world."

    Yeah- America's.

    Israel has nukes and strong intelligence agencies but they have to borrow the muscle.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran--see then what happens next. Israel will start a stopwatch to own disappearance as a state.

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    Says who? Pentagon, American neocon PR machine? What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs? IDF sure as hell will not be happy, say, with restored and more or less competent SAA if push comes to shove, especially with Russian permanent military bases there. These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.
    , @Wally
    You have no memory, hasbarist.

    Israel's little boys couldn't even handle Hezbollah in Lebanon, they ran like scared rabbits.

    , @patrica
    Nukes are useless! Get educated! Once again Nukes are useless! Unless of course you want to murder half of humanity! You know, like wherever the wind blows, and forever radio active clouds drifting around the planet. Nukes should not be used in your own geographical zone either. Really, its a bad idea. So put on your boxing gloves and fight like a man.
    , @MEexpert

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world.
     
    Ha Ha Ha! Remember 2006 war against Hezbollah? The best army ran with its tail between its legs. The "best army in the world" is only good at shooting unarmed Palestinian children and civilians.

    Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    First you should get your facts straight. It was Israel who attacked Hezbollah, not the other way around. Whether Israel will not be "so merciful" this time or not, I know Hezbollah will not be merciful in kicking Israel's "best army" in its rear end.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin "Jack Ass" Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran's nuclear weapons for a decade.
    , @Sergey Krieger
    I remember watching 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. On Israel part failure was multilevel from top of the military to the bottom. General staff led by air man. Concentration of almost all of land forces effort on small value prepared in advance target making fool of oneself wasting time and energy on this target, while bombing civilian targets. Inability to plan and take decisive deep moves to confront Hezbollah main forces defeating which would make far more military sense . Obviously IDF did not feel they could take losses associated with such course of actions and keep going and frankly I feel they knew they could not considering what we know now about performance of Israeli army at all levels. All in all israeli army got into the trap carefully prepared for them and got stuck there. Hezbollah pinned it there along the border and processed with hitting Israel proper showing complete failure of Israeli army and air force to achieve there goals. This is not performance of one if the best. Strategic and tactical failures were glaring and fighting spirit was poor as Israel could not do what was necessary to reverse the situation due to internal wariness and inability to take losses.
    , @Ilyana_Rozumova
    You are childish! (Or maybe you are child?)
    , @isthatright
    Israel merciful? that's a laugh and your an idiot
    , @Ram
    Not all of the nukes are aimed at Iran. Many are aimed at European cities (The Samson Option).

    AS for the Israeli air power with the brand new F35s, one has already come to grief being the victim of an S-200 missile, an old has been from a past era. Today it has the cover from more modern S-400 at Hmeimeem.

    The army too is better led and far more able, doing most if not all of the fighting itself. Whatsmore, they still believe in the 72 virgins too.
    , @Charlotte NC Bill
    Iran doesn't need any nukes ( even having them is immoral ) all they need are missiles that can reach Dimona and then Talmudia goes "poof"...and that shitty little Satanic Rothschild Crime Syndicate Hide-Out masquerading as a country is GONE...Hamdella! Thanks be to God!
    , @Father O'Hara
    How many aimed at US?
    , @Art
    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.

    It totally amazing that the Jews can keep these 200 nukes out of world discourse.

    No one of consequence will publicly and openly speak about Israel’s nukes – they all fear the Jew coercion machine. The whole of humanities intellectual world lives in fear of the Jew.

    This must end – PERIOD.

    Courage folks - courage.


    Think Peace --- Art

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  3. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I like this analysis but not the counter-plan. Yes, the Western MSM and the (((deep state))) infecting the US will try their best to push for escalation (by way of deception thou shalt do war) but that’s happening no matter what. Giving up certain responses and strategies in fear of “what will MSM say” might be a fool’s errand. There’s a real danger of being too passive and bleeding out from a thousand cuts.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    Agree.
    Americans in Syria: https://www.globalresearch.ca/secretary-mattis-is-off-base-us-military-presence-in-syria-has-no-legal-grounds/5618997
    "The establishment of the US base near the Syria-Jordan border [in the area of the Syrian town of al-Tanf] was publicly justified by the need to conduct operations against Islamic State. However, no information has been received about any US operations against the group conducted from this area. To the contrary, IS has been reported to operate freely in an area abutting the [US] base. ... On and off, militant groups supposedly trained by Americans in the area strike Syria government forces. The more US forces are in-theater in Syria, the greater the chance of conflict between them and Syrian troops."
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  4. Renoman says:

    And all the fallout from the 200 Israeli nukes will go straight to Russia! I don’t think Vlad will put up with that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Kiza
    Yes, after Israel uses nuclear weapons on Iran it could turn out to be time for some pest control in the Middle East. There is no-one more deserving on this whole planet.
    , @Anonymous
    It's not that significant. A nuke produces orders of magnitude less fallout than a commercial reactor melting down, and fukushima fell into obscurity pretty quick.
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  5. jackmcg says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    “Israel has one of the best armies in the world.”

    Yeah- America’s.

    Israel has nukes and strong intelligence agencies but they have to borrow the muscle.

    Read More
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  6. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.

    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran–see then what happens next. Israel will start a stopwatch to own disappearance as a state.

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Says who? Pentagon, American neocon PR machine? What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs? IDF sure as hell will not be happy, say, with restored and more or less competent SAA if push comes to shove, especially with Russian permanent military bases there. These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel

    These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.
     
    How are things different today? Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space defended with Russian technology and bomb targets around the capital Damascus pretty much at will.
    , @survey-of-disinfo

    What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs
     
    The Egyptian army pulled a nice tactical hat trick scaling the sand barrier in '73. They basically kicked IDFs ass in Sinai. Interesting "political" decisions and pulled-punches by Cairo/Sadat are worth examining in context of "it's all a show while they divy up the resources among the top predators" analysis of world affairs.

    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran
     
    Good luck indeed since IDF has not demonstrated it possesses, much less is capable, of fielding nuclear weapons. The 'disclosure' of Israeli nukes in a press event (along with cute "leak" by General look-at-my-comicbook-evidence Powel via equally "cute" Wikileaks) is precisely because IDF shat its pants in '73 and realized that the entity is simply not capable of defending the stolen lands from Arab armies.

    Explaining why nominally "resisting" Arabs have not wiped the entity of the map is the reason all sides echo the "200 nukes" bullshit. (Because they have to explain their inaction. Doesn't really work to tell the sheep that 'folks this is all just so we can use pretext of a crisis ridden region to exploit its resources and test our weapons on brown people'.)

    As an aside I noted RT today has a "ham fisted" WaPo/NYTimes style editorial-as-newstory item joining the line dumping on prince MbS.

    https://www.rt.com/news/410299-lebanon-saudi-hariri-hezbollah/

    Isn't always interesting when everyone and their PR machines take a unified line on a person or idea or organization.

    Listen to this:


    Nonetheless, Riyadh’s whole scheme was so ham-fisted it seems barely credible that anyone thought that it could work smoothly in the television age, never mind in an era of dozens of competing Arab-language news networks, and millions of tweets (Hariri himself has dismissed the speculation as “lies”).
     
    Russians have a strong sense of humor. They sold 9/11 on "television" and (let's note) everyone agrees with Bush the lesser that it was a "terrorist" event. If that they can sell that they can sell anything.

    So to translate RT: Doesn't MbS realize that the reason we can sell events like Vegas or 9/11 "in the television" age is because "we" the international propaganda platforms of the top predators work together to sell the story. Poor "clown prince" now gets to see how we act in UNISON when any brown person cum "prince" goes off script and starts thinking independently.

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  7. Mikel says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran--see then what happens next. Israel will start a stopwatch to own disappearance as a state.

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    Says who? Pentagon, American neocon PR machine? What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs? IDF sure as hell will not be happy, say, with restored and more or less competent SAA if push comes to shove, especially with Russian permanent military bases there. These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.

    These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.

    How are things different today? Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space defended with Russian technology and bomb targets around the capital Damascus pretty much at will.

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    • Replies: @Kiza
    Did this “penetration” make any military difference? The whole “civil war” in Syria has been started by Israel and its US and KSA proxies, by organising and supporting terrorists. Direct Israeli military action is nothing compared with unleashing terrorism crazies on the nearby country, and even that big one lost. If the Israeli military was so mighty why did it need the terrorists to fight on its behalf? Therefore, the Israeli bombing of Syria is insignificant and out of pure frustration at a loss.

    But a question for you - how does the Israeli bombing of Syria stack up against Israel being presented as the ethereal victim in the US Ziomedia?

    The ultimate irony of the situation is that Israeli effort to dominate and own the ME, by getting US to attack Iraq and by fomenting sectarianism and terrorism in Syria, has bounced back to make the situation much worse for Israel than before. My personal expectation was a little different, I must admit. I expected that the terrorists of The Coalition of the Lovers of Terrorism would win in Syria,but that the Takfiri crazies would then turn around and bite the Israeli hand that fed them. Then Israel would get US to occupy Syria on its behalf, to control the crazies that Israel unleashed. But Russia got involved unexpectedly and now the last Israeli resort is to get its puppets to bleed in an attack on Iran. Attacking and occupying Syria, just like Iraq, would have been cheaper for US than attacking Iran.

    The almost suicidal US attack on Iran will be the ultimate test of Zionist control over US, and it could change the things in US quite a lot.
    , @Wally
    Until Russia decides to flip the 'on' switch.
    , @Anon
    "...Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space..."
    Thanks for reminding about the criminal actions by the apartheid Jewish State.
    Do they still teach Nuremberg Protocols at Israeli schools or a comparison with the Nazi Lebensraum has become too obvious?
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  8. George says:

    As long as the US has its posh base in Qatar, I have trouble believing the US will attack Iran. US ships, especially the huge aircraft carriers are sitting ducks in the tiny Persian Gulf. They are not there for strategic reasons, they are there for lifestyle reasons. I doubt Israel will attempt another war with Lebanon give the last one went very poorly.

    The next war would likely be with Lebanon. As near as I can tell Hezbollah has allies in every group except maybe the Sunni. I think the Sunni will ally with Hezbollah but who knows for sure.

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    • Replies: @Wayne Pacific
    An indicator of imminent war would be the moving of the carriers out of the Persian gulf into the open seas.
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  9. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    But their plan is, I think, much cruder: to trigger a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.

    It could be the reverse, that it’s the US that is orchestrating them to create a situation that the US can then claim a necessity to intervene. The continuity of US policy persists no matter what party is in power. The US has been implacably hostile to the Iranian regime since the Shah was toppled and has tried everything including supporting Saddam Hussein’s invasion back in the early days of the Iranian revolution. Now with the failure of the Syrian project there may be an idea afoot to double down in a now-or-never roll of the dice. We’ll have to see what happens. The internal politics of Saudi Arabia are rather opaque so what this internal power struggle is really about is hard to guess at particularly with the sort of media we have. It’s interesting how the Saudi Arabian-Israeli alliance has become less covert these days and is now quite open.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    "It’s interesting how the Saudi Arabian-Israeli alliance has become less covert these days and is now quite open."
    Two theocracies have found each other
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  10. Wow. Predicting military conflict in the Middle-East. Another bold article by The Saker.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/16/israeli-jets-attack-anti-aircraft-battery-in-syria-in-retaliatory-strike

    2800 words was exhausting. Especially since it was pure conspiracy theory.

    You set up a straw man by fabricating a ten-point “AngloZionist” plan of goals. Then you claim this has all failed so the Jews and Neocons and ZioWahabis (Jesus, are you for real?) must be really angry so they are going to launch a war for no reason in particular.

    You really never provide any names or dialogue or agreements or meetings or UN resolutions or history. Only your view and opinion. Convenient. Pure rant about a vague AngloZionist conspiracy to control the world. Ironically, the one name and quote you provide doesn’t support your insistence on war.

    The Syrian “state” has “survived” AND is “stronger”? Seriously? “Remain unitary”? Pretty sure there is still a civil war going on in Syria AND next door in Iraq. But don’t let facts get in the way of a good rant.

    The YPG still seems to control Syria east of the Euphrates and the US still has a small contingent there.

    My feeling is that the Russian and Israeli and American general staffs and ambassadors would laugh if they read this article. They are probably all in the same room right now. They could read it together.

    But their problem is that their only true area of expertise is massacring defenseless civilians, that they are real experts at.

    LOL. Like the Russians in Chechnya. Twice!

    As for the Israelis, they are offering to share intelligence (read: targeting data) with the Saudis. How touching it is to see these two medieval, backward and generally evil regimes are so willing to work together. At least they are both now showing their true, ugly, faces!

    I know, right? It’s amazing they have managed to take over Hollywood, The World, and the New York Times.

    This line should have been the title of the piece:

    “The following is only my speculation and nothing more. I have no way of knowing…”

    The boring reality is that all the governments and militaries involved (with the exception of ISIS and/or other jihadi-types) employ many more level-headed advisers and leaders like Admiral Fallon than The Saker wants us to believe.

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    • Troll: chris
    • Replies: @isthatright
    Turn off Fox news for 5 minutes idiot you might just learn something
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  11. Virgile says:

    Saudis are not used to receive missiles on their head. They panicked when the Yemeni missile fell on their airport. I doubt that the crazy kinglet will start a war with Iran. What he could do is a false flag that kills a few saudis ( chemical weapons) to call the USA to retaliate…
    Yet they are so stupid that they would need Israeli expertise to setup the false flag. Israel wont take the chance to be exposed.. so nothing will happen.
    If they can’t trigger US intervention they would just shut up and swallow their humilition, while Israel would be continue its attacks on Syria under the sacred principle of self protection.

    Lots of noise for nothing..

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    • Replies: @Z-man

    the crazy kinglet
     
    I like that ! I call him the 'clown prince' and he looks like an idiot.
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  12. Kiza says:
    @Renoman
    And all the fallout from the 200 Israeli nukes will go straight to Russia! I don't think Vlad will put up with that.

    Yes, after Israel uses nuclear weapons on Iran it could turn out to be time for some pest control in the Middle East. There is no-one more deserving on this whole planet.

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  13. Kiza says:
    @Mikel

    These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.
     
    How are things different today? Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space defended with Russian technology and bomb targets around the capital Damascus pretty much at will.

    Did this “penetration” make any military difference? The whole “civil war” in Syria has been started by Israel and its US and KSA proxies, by organising and supporting terrorists. Direct Israeli military action is nothing compared with unleashing terrorism crazies on the nearby country, and even that big one lost. If the Israeli military was so mighty why did it need the terrorists to fight on its behalf? Therefore, the Israeli bombing of Syria is insignificant and out of pure frustration at a loss.

    But a question for you – how does the Israeli bombing of Syria stack up against Israel being presented as the ethereal victim in the US Ziomedia?

    The ultimate irony of the situation is that Israeli effort to dominate and own the ME, by getting US to attack Iraq and by fomenting sectarianism and terrorism in Syria, has bounced back to make the situation much worse for Israel than before. My personal expectation was a little different, I must admit. I expected that the terrorists of The Coalition of the Lovers of Terrorism would win in Syria,but that the Takfiri crazies would then turn around and bite the Israeli hand that fed them. Then Israel would get US to occupy Syria on its behalf, to control the crazies that Israel unleashed. But Russia got involved unexpectedly and now the last Israeli resort is to get its puppets to bleed in an attack on Iran. Attacking and occupying Syria, just like Iraq, would have been cheaper for US than attacking Iran.

    The almost suicidal US attack on Iran will be the ultimate test of Zionist control over US, and it could change the things in US quite a lot.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel
    No, sorry. I was only interested in the military/technical aspect of Martyanov's comment. My interest in Middle Eastern politics is very limited. I am actually glad to see the Syrian/Russian side winning but, at the same time, I don't believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration or anything like that.
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  14. Wally says:
    @Mikel

    These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.
     
    How are things different today? Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space defended with Russian technology and bomb targets around the capital Damascus pretty much at will.

    Until Russia decides to flip the ‘on’ switch.

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  15. Wally says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    You have no memory, hasbarist.

    Israel’s little boys couldn’t even handle Hezbollah in Lebanon, they ran like scared rabbits.

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  16. Kiza says:

    As far as I can tell, there are two Hasbara troll brigades, one responsible for The Saker, the other responsible for Philip Giraldi. This is why most of the first 20 comments to the articles of these two authors are always by their Hasbara watchers. This is not the same with the non-watched authors, such as Dr James Petras for example, were the Hasbara trolls do not expect material critical of Israel and thus do not gain the prime commenting real estate of the first 20 comments, they join in only later.

    I consider such troll attention to these two authors the best credit to their value. Those two authors are just like BDS.

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  17. Kiza says:

    The Saker is really good when he stays away from the weapon systems and mine is bigger than yours. This strategic analysis of his is quite reasonable. Unlike what the trolls claim, Saker is not predicting an attack on Iran and neither am I. Simply, there is a struggle going on in US and EU, between the Zionist influence and the my-country-first resistance. The Zionists have been winning so far at a huge cost to the countries which were tools of their plans, they got away with the destruction of all five of the six countries targeted. But this “success” has solidified the resistance in the tool countries, united some Sunnis (Turkey) with the Shiites and, even worse, it has considerably strengthened the single remaining target country – Iran. In other words, the destruction of five out of six countries has been a very Pyrric victory of the Zionists.

    My best guess are two possible outcomes – if the Zionists manage to get US to attack Iran through some false-flag or otherwise, this will probably lead to the final dismounting of US from the global stage and US will turn inward to political instability and even possible civil war. In other words, the Zionists will spend up and sacrifice their main source of blood and treasure.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran. The Zionists have already used up most of the credit that their Ziomedia had and no reasonably intelligent person in US trusts a single word coming out of those media. I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. Yes, I feel that the Zionists have already used up all their aces and I just cannot imagine them inventing another original and powerful new war ace. I do not underestimate people’s gullibility but US has been truly economically too depleted to march into another war. In other words, if internal resistance prevented attack on Iran in 2007, such attack is even less likely to pass in 2017 or later, regardless of how much President Swamp is an Israeli puppet or not.

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    • Replies: @animalogic
    I hope you are right Kiza. However:
    "I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. " Sorry, I can. When anyone says "Ziomedia" they basically mean the MSM in its entirety. The US Executive & Legislature are also - still - in thrall to the Zionists. Does anyone (switched on ) actually think it isn't so ?
    The only rays of hope i have - & they are not insignificant - is that the notion of actually attacking a State such as Iran, given its important, if no where near absolute - advantages should give (the Sane) pause to seriously reconsider. I hope that the US military still contains such sane individuals.
    Short of direct US military intervention it becomes easier to imagine some barely plausible (but completely "spinable" , provocation by the Israelis: a series of escalating bombing raids on Iran for Israel's "security" ? A chemical warfare "site" ? A concentration of Republican guards threatening Israel ?
    Poor Israel ! There-was-no-alternative !
    And should Iran DARE defend itself ? ... well it would be all bets off.
    So, like the Saker, its all specualtion & worth - whatever... but, things tend to go along Ok -- until they don't.
    , @Sergey Krieger
    I would stay away from weapons system as I am not qualified. But when Sacker is not writing about Soviet past but concentrates on such strategic issues like in his previous article he produces very good pieces. While I do think his current piece is speculative on nature, I would never dismiss predictability of stupidity. They did it in Lebanon in 2006. They can do it again. Until those crazies from basement are completely removed along with their backers influence there is no relaxing. Strange world. It all reminds of chimps throwing feces at each other rather than intelligent species. We are wasting resources and brain power to kill each other instead of going beyond our planet limits and investing in This what we invest in war.
    , @Janet
    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran.

    You left out the third possibility. All those troops massing around Israel, is going to be pay back time for 9/11
    , @War for Blair Mountain
    Kiza

    A bloody Civil War in the 2017 version of America will be a bloody Race War......What could be more obvious?
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  18. Mikel says:
    @Kiza
    Did this “penetration” make any military difference? The whole “civil war” in Syria has been started by Israel and its US and KSA proxies, by organising and supporting terrorists. Direct Israeli military action is nothing compared with unleashing terrorism crazies on the nearby country, and even that big one lost. If the Israeli military was so mighty why did it need the terrorists to fight on its behalf? Therefore, the Israeli bombing of Syria is insignificant and out of pure frustration at a loss.

    But a question for you - how does the Israeli bombing of Syria stack up against Israel being presented as the ethereal victim in the US Ziomedia?

    The ultimate irony of the situation is that Israeli effort to dominate and own the ME, by getting US to attack Iraq and by fomenting sectarianism and terrorism in Syria, has bounced back to make the situation much worse for Israel than before. My personal expectation was a little different, I must admit. I expected that the terrorists of The Coalition of the Lovers of Terrorism would win in Syria,but that the Takfiri crazies would then turn around and bite the Israeli hand that fed them. Then Israel would get US to occupy Syria on its behalf, to control the crazies that Israel unleashed. But Russia got involved unexpectedly and now the last Israeli resort is to get its puppets to bleed in an attack on Iran. Attacking and occupying Syria, just like Iraq, would have been cheaper for US than attacking Iran.

    The almost suicidal US attack on Iran will be the ultimate test of Zionist control over US, and it could change the things in US quite a lot.

    No, sorry. I was only interested in the military/technical aspect of Martyanov’s comment. My interest in Middle Eastern politics is very limited. I am actually glad to see the Syrian/Russian side winning but, at the same time, I don’t believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration or anything like that.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Frankie P
    For someone interested solely in the military/technical aspect of Mr. Martyanov's comment, you show very little understanding of recent history, believing that penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy. Please watch the following video and then make some more comments on it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3CuDbbr5tA

    Frankie P
    , @L.K
    "...I don’t believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration.."

    What you believe or don't ain't worthwhile but the Syrian war is not really a 'civil war' at all and the fact that it originates with a zionist-ZUSA-Saudi conspiracy is well established:

    WikiLeaks: US, Israel, And Saudi Arabia Planned Overthrow Of Syrian Govt. In 2006
    [...]Cables reveal that before the beginning of the Syrian revolt and civil war, the United States hoped to overthrow Assad and create strife between Shiite and Sunni Muslims

    The United States and its allies in the Middle East, including Turkey and Israel, have been frequently accused of contributing to the ongoing destabilization of Syria in the wake of the uprising and subsequent civil war which began in 2011. But according to cables from the WikiLeaks archive, discussed in the Syria chapter of Assange’s book, plans to deliberately destabilize the region go back at least five years further.[...]
    WikiLeaks cables reveal that these plans came from the Israeli government, and show that the U.S. government intended to work with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt to encourage the breakdown of the Assad regime as a way of also weakening Iran and Hezbollah.
     
    http://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-planned-overthrow-of-syrian-govt-in-2006/221784/
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  19. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    I’m not so certain that Trump intends to let the US get involved. The guy’s a deal-maker and businessman, not a soldier. Trump is simply not a bloodthirsty guy, or he would have sicced every prosecutor he could get his hands on after the left for the way they’re treating him. He trolls his opponents a lot on twitter, but he does nothing to them except toss snide words in their direction.

    I think Trump sees his role in the Mideast as someone who sells the Israelis and Saudis lots of expensive weapons systems, shakes their hand and wishes them Godspeed, but he’s going to let them get into trouble on their own. I don’t see Trump as someone willing to go adventuring in the Mideast because he doesn’t have to prove his masculinity to himself. He’s already climbed to the top of the heap. He’s president of the US. What else does he need to prove? Nothing, really. I also think he wants to avoid making stupid mistakes. Throwing money away into expensive quagmires is not his thing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico
    All excellent points and insight. You won't hear any of that on CNN. Thank you.

    One thing Trump has not done is use US military power as a panacea for global turmoil by invading or attacking somewhere in force.He hasn't drawn down but hee hasn't expanded military use.

    The cruise-missile strike in Syria seemed more symbolic to get his detractors off his back. Sure, it has been less than a year and who knows what will happen - but this is more than can be said of ANY of his predecessors since Herbert Hoover with the exception of Jimmy Carter.

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  20. When was the last time the US military attacked someone who could fight back? The Germans who were losing to the Soviet Union? The Japanese who were bogged down in China? Korea? Vietnam?

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  21. @Anon
    I'm not so certain that Trump intends to let the US get involved. The guy's a deal-maker and businessman, not a soldier. Trump is simply not a bloodthirsty guy, or he would have sicced every prosecutor he could get his hands on after the left for the way they're treating him. He trolls his opponents a lot on twitter, but he does nothing to them except toss snide words in their direction.

    I think Trump sees his role in the Mideast as someone who sells the Israelis and Saudis lots of expensive weapons systems, shakes their hand and wishes them Godspeed, but he's going to let them get into trouble on their own. I don't see Trump as someone willing to go adventuring in the Mideast because he doesn't have to prove his masculinity to himself. He's already climbed to the top of the heap. He's president of the US. What else does he need to prove? Nothing, really. I also think he wants to avoid making stupid mistakes. Throwing money away into expensive quagmires is not his thing.

    All excellent points and insight. You won’t hear any of that on CNN. Thank you.

    One thing Trump has not done is use US military power as a panacea for global turmoil by invading or attacking somewhere in force.He hasn’t drawn down but hee hasn’t expanded military use.

    The cruise-missile strike in Syria seemed more symbolic to get his detractors off his back. Sure, it has been less than a year and who knows what will happen – but this is more than can be said of ANY of his predecessors since Herbert Hoover with the exception of Jimmy Carter.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    The cruise-missile strike in Syria seemed more symbolic to get his detractors off his back.
     
    It "seemed" like he was caving in to the will of the swamp. Luckily, someone was kind enough to inform him afterwards that only the swamp was applauding the event while his base, and many independents, felt betrayed. That "symbolic" strike, based on transparently false justifications, cost him a lot of domestic and international support.

    Trump was at his strongest during the election. Every time WaPo or NYT tried to box him in he'd laugh in their faces and pushed in the opposite direction. His popularity among the voters surged whenever he refused to comply (or "get his detractors off his back").

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  22. […] Saudi Arabia Setting Preconditions for War with Hezbollah – by The Saker – http://www.unz.com/tsaker/israel-saudi-arabia-setting-preconditions-for-war-with-hezbollah/ – “First, the goal will not be to defeat Hezbollah or Iran anywhere. For all their […]

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  23. Mulegino1 says:

    Israeli military prowess and invincibility is a 100% Hollywood fable, cooked up by the usual suspect (and embellished by the Christian Zionist “rapture ready” bunch of shabbos goyim).

    In 1948, the Haganah was totally humiliated by the Jordanian Legion (led, for the most part, by British officers who hated the Zionist terrorists). Unfortunately, due to the bribery of King Hussein, the Legion was withdrawn from the war and the Haganah had only to deal with the ragtag and outnumbered Arab Legion.

    The one solid victory of the IDF was the 1967 sneak attack on Egypt and Syria, which occurred with full “U.S.” support and included the attempted sinking of the U.S.S. Liberty (and the attempted murder of the entire crew) under the heretofore most corrupt President in U.S. history, LBJ.

    In the 1972 “Yom Kippur War”, only Operation Nickle Grass, the largest military airlift in history, saved Israel from total defeat.

    In 2006, a few hundred or so light infantrymen, having no air force, no naval support, and no heavy armor or heavy artillery, defeated the so called “invincible” IDF in Southern Lebanon. Those yellow flags flying on the Lebanese border with Israel are not a reference to the cowardly nature of the IDF (accustomed to fighting unarmed civilians) but they might as well be.

    In 2006

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    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    Israeli military prowess and invincibility is a 100% Hollywood fable
     
    I agree with your assessment. Armies are hardened in combat under battle conditions against equal or more powerful adversaries. In recent years, Hezbollah and the Syrian army have become hardened and formidable as an unintended consequence of US/Israeli mischief in Syria under the auspices of CIA/Mossad-created ISIS, and CIA-created Al Qaeda with its many facets and pseudonyms. Iran has been training continuously for the imminent attack by US and Zionist forces, and prevailed in the Iraq-Iran war of 1988, instigated by the US. Today, Iraq and Iran are on their way to becoming a unified alliance against zionist and imperialistic forces. The "Shia Crescent" is now a force worthy of awe and admiration.

    Meanwhile, the much vaunted IDF has been battle-hardened (ha!) in combat with stone-throwing children and unarmed Palestinian farmers, with hi-tech expensive anti-missile defenses being used to bring down home made firecrackers from Hamas. As you point out, in 2006, just Hezbollah alone, without the aid of todays new found allies in Syria and Iraq (and of course, Iran), was able to rout both aerial and ground attacks by Israel and beat them back to run with their tails between their legs. 49 of Israel's Merkava tanks (self-declared God's Chariot) were left as smoldering metal in that action, demolished by hand-held anti-tank missiles.

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon. I doubt that they will succeed this time. I think Netanyahu's precarious position with criminal indictments forthcoming will cause him to do something stupid like attacking Lebanon. This will prove to be a bridge too far.

    We may be seeing the early stages of the destruction of Israel. They may not have 5 years left, certainly not 10. An unverified CIA memo informed former US President Bill Clinton that Israel would not exist beyond the year 2022. That is just 5 years away, and the ducks seem to be lining up in a row, regardless of whether such a memo was ever sent.
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  24. @Mulegino1
    Israeli military prowess and invincibility is a 100% Hollywood fable, cooked up by the usual suspect (and embellished by the Christian Zionist "rapture ready" bunch of shabbos goyim).

    In 1948, the Haganah was totally humiliated by the Jordanian Legion (led, for the most part, by British officers who hated the Zionist terrorists). Unfortunately, due to the bribery of King Hussein, the Legion was withdrawn from the war and the Haganah had only to deal with the ragtag and outnumbered Arab Legion.

    The one solid victory of the IDF was the 1967 sneak attack on Egypt and Syria, which occurred with full "U.S." support and included the attempted sinking of the U.S.S. Liberty (and the attempted murder of the entire crew) under the heretofore most corrupt President in U.S. history, LBJ.

    In the 1972 "Yom Kippur War", only Operation Nickle Grass, the largest military airlift in history, saved Israel from total defeat.

    In 2006, a few hundred or so light infantrymen, having no air force, no naval support, and no heavy armor or heavy artillery, defeated the so called "invincible" IDF in Southern Lebanon. Those yellow flags flying on the Lebanese border with Israel are not a reference to the cowardly nature of the IDF (accustomed to fighting unarmed civilians) but they might as well be.

    In 2006

    Israeli military prowess and invincibility is a 100% Hollywood fable

    I agree with your assessment. Armies are hardened in combat under battle conditions against equal or more powerful adversaries. In recent years, Hezbollah and the Syrian army have become hardened and formidable as an unintended consequence of US/Israeli mischief in Syria under the auspices of CIA/Mossad-created ISIS, and CIA-created Al Qaeda with its many facets and pseudonyms. Iran has been training continuously for the imminent attack by US and Zionist forces, and prevailed in the Iraq-Iran war of 1988, instigated by the US. Today, Iraq and Iran are on their way to becoming a unified alliance against zionist and imperialistic forces. The “Shia Crescent” is now a force worthy of awe and admiration.

    Meanwhile, the much vaunted IDF has been battle-hardened (ha!) in combat with stone-throwing children and unarmed Palestinian farmers, with hi-tech expensive anti-missile defenses being used to bring down home made firecrackers from Hamas. As you point out, in 2006, just Hezbollah alone, without the aid of todays new found allies in Syria and Iraq (and of course, Iran), was able to rout both aerial and ground attacks by Israel and beat them back to run with their tails between their legs. 49 of Israel’s Merkava tanks (self-declared God’s Chariot) were left as smoldering metal in that action, demolished by hand-held anti-tank missiles.

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon. I doubt that they will succeed this time. I think Netanyahu’s precarious position with criminal indictments forthcoming will cause him to do something stupid like attacking Lebanon. This will prove to be a bridge too far.

    We may be seeing the early stages of the destruction of Israel. They may not have 5 years left, certainly not 10. An unverified CIA memo informed former US President Bill Clinton that Israel would not exist beyond the year 2022. That is just 5 years away, and the ducks seem to be lining up in a row, regardless of whether such a memo was ever sent.

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    • Agree: Mulegino1
    • Replies: @Thirdeye

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon.
     
    I'm having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack - an extremely risky move for Israel. Whatever co-ordinated plans Israel and the Saudis develop are most likely predicated on drawing Iran into full-scale defense of the Shia crescent in Iraq and maybe Syria, forcing the US in to protect the gulf oil trade and, while everyone is preoccupied, Israel attacking in Lebanon and western Syria. But Israel would be faced with some serious dilemmas if things don't go as planned on the Saudi end, which seems likely from their performance in Yemen. And that's not even considering the fact that Iran could shut down the Saudi oil trade in a matter of hours if they came into direct conflict. It seems that any Israeli-Saudi move without first obtaining commitment from the US would be foolhardy and the US would be equally foolhardy to make such a prior commitment. But as Frank Zappa said, never underestimate stupidity.
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  25. patrica says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Nukes are useless! Get educated! Once again Nukes are useless! Unless of course you want to murder half of humanity! You know, like wherever the wind blows, and forever radio active clouds drifting around the planet. Nukes should not be used in your own geographical zone either. Really, its a bad idea. So put on your boxing gloves and fight like a man.

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  26. MEexpert says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world.

    Ha Ha Ha! Remember 2006 war against Hezbollah? The best army ran with its tail between its legs. The “best army in the world” is only good at shooting unarmed Palestinian children and civilians.

    Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    First you should get your facts straight. It was Israel who attacked Hezbollah, not the other way around. Whether Israel will not be “so merciful” this time or not, I know Hezbollah will not be merciful in kicking Israel’s “best army” in its rear end.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.

    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin “Jack Ass” Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran’s nuclear weapons for a decade.

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    • Replies: @Z-man

    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin “Jack Ass” Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran’s nuclear weapons for a decade.
     
    Thumbs up!

    Exactly! Donald 'wake up'!!! Get that weird looking kike son in law of yours out of the WH, pronto!
    , @Anonymous
    "Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin “Jack Ass” Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran’s nuclear weapons for a decade."


    https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/US-joins-the-warnings-1992-97

    1995: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon – and that the threat had to be "uprooted by an international front headed by the US."
     
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  27. Miro23 says:

    But their plan is, I think, much cruder: to trigger a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.

    100% agree with this. It’s their only option, and the cowardly and traitorous Congress and MSM are fully on board.

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  28. @Kiza
    The Saker is really good when he stays away from the weapon systems and mine is bigger than yours. This strategic analysis of his is quite reasonable. Unlike what the trolls claim, Saker is not predicting an attack on Iran and neither am I. Simply, there is a struggle going on in US and EU, between the Zionist influence and the my-country-first resistance. The Zionists have been winning so far at a huge cost to the countries which were tools of their plans, they got away with the destruction of all five of the six countries targeted. But this “success” has solidified the resistance in the tool countries, united some Sunnis (Turkey) with the Shiites and, even worse, it has considerably strengthened the single remaining target country - Iran. In other words, the destruction of five out of six countries has been a very Pyrric victory of the Zionists.

    My best guess are two possible outcomes - if the Zionists manage to get US to attack Iran through some false-flag or otherwise, this will probably lead to the final dismounting of US from the global stage and US will turn inward to political instability and even possible civil war. In other words, the Zionists will spend up and sacrifice their main source of blood and treasure.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran. The Zionists have already used up most of the credit that their Ziomedia had and no reasonably intelligent person in US trusts a single word coming out of those media. I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. Yes, I feel that the Zionists have already used up all their aces and I just cannot imagine them inventing another original and powerful new war ace. I do not underestimate people’s gullibility but US has been truly economically too depleted to march into another war. In other words, if internal resistance prevented attack on Iran in 2007, such attack is even less likely to pass in 2017 or later, regardless of how much President Swamp is an Israeli puppet or not.

    I hope you are right Kiza. However:
    “I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. ” Sorry, I can. When anyone says “Ziomedia” they basically mean the MSM in its entirety. The US Executive & Legislature are also – still – in thrall to the Zionists. Does anyone (switched on ) actually think it isn’t so ?
    The only rays of hope i have – & they are not insignificant – is that the notion of actually attacking a State such as Iran, given its important, if no where near absolute – advantages should give (the Sane) pause to seriously reconsider. I hope that the US military still contains such sane individuals.
    Short of direct US military intervention it becomes easier to imagine some barely plausible (but completely “spinable” , provocation by the Israelis: a series of escalating bombing raids on Iran for Israel’s “security” ? A chemical warfare “site” ? A concentration of Republican guards threatening Israel ?
    Poor Israel ! There-was-no-alternative !
    And should Iran DARE defend itself ? … well it would be all bets off.
    So, like the Saker, its all specualtion & worth – whatever… but, things tend to go along Ok — until they don’t.

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  29. Frankie P says:
    @Mikel
    No, sorry. I was only interested in the military/technical aspect of Martyanov's comment. My interest in Middle Eastern politics is very limited. I am actually glad to see the Syrian/Russian side winning but, at the same time, I don't believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration or anything like that.

    For someone interested solely in the military/technical aspect of Mr. Martyanov’s comment, you show very little understanding of recent history, believing that penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy. Please watch the following video and then make some more comments on it.

    Frankie P

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    • Replies: @Mikel
    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I'll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don't know why you think that I believe that "penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy". If that were the case, we wouldn't have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I'm a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn't been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).
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  30. Greg Bacon says: • Website

    When it comes to shooting pregnant women in the stomach or kids in the head, the world’s most moral army, the IDF, has no peers.
    But when it comes to fighting REAL men, like Hezbollah, the IDF wets its pants, falls apart and gets its ass kicked. Remember the videos of the IDF leaving Lebanon in 2006, after Hezbollah ran their sorry asses out?

    The IDF punks were crying for Mommy, running back to their safe space where they could butch up by terrorizing defenseless Palestinians.

    As usual, Israel will use deceit, manipulations, bribes and blackmail to get others to do their dirty work, just like they’ve been using the USA since they masterminded and set off the 9/11 False Flag.

    https://wikispooks.com/wiki/9-11/Israel_did_it

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  31. Art says:

    So it’s all simple: have the Saudis attack Lebanon and/or Iran,

    The Saudis should think twice – the main oil fields in Saudi are peopled by Shia – the Shia run Iraq and control Syria – Iraq and Syria forces are tested – Iran would not have to fight -the Saudis cannot fight their way out of a paper bag – 10 miles out of Saudi and they would collapse – then they would be open to attack themselves. The US would not want this to even start.

    If Egypt was coerced into war – then there will be a real genuine problem.

    Think Peace — Art

    p..s. The American people will say NO war to congress (that is what happened with Obama and Syria).

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  32. @Andrei Martyanov

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran--see then what happens next. Israel will start a stopwatch to own disappearance as a state.

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    Says who? Pentagon, American neocon PR machine? What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs? IDF sure as hell will not be happy, say, with restored and more or less competent SAA if push comes to shove, especially with Russian permanent military bases there. These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.

    What has Israel ever fought other than utterly incompetent Arabs

    The Egyptian army pulled a nice tactical hat trick scaling the sand barrier in ’73. They basically kicked IDFs ass in Sinai. Interesting “political” decisions and pulled-punches by Cairo/Sadat are worth examining in context of “it’s all a show while they divy up the resources among the top predators” analysis of world affairs.

    Yep, good luck for Israel using nukes on Iran

    Good luck indeed since IDF has not demonstrated it possesses, much less is capable, of fielding nuclear weapons. The ‘disclosure’ of Israeli nukes in a press event (along with cute “leak” by General look-at-my-comicbook-evidence Powel via equally “cute” Wikileaks) is precisely because IDF shat its pants in ’73 and realized that the entity is simply not capable of defending the stolen lands from Arab armies.

    Explaining why nominally “resisting” Arabs have not wiped the entity of the map is the reason all sides echo the “200 nukes” bullshit. (Because they have to explain their inaction. Doesn’t really work to tell the sheep that ‘folks this is all just so we can use pretext of a crisis ridden region to exploit its resources and test our weapons on brown people’.)

    As an aside I noted RT today has a “ham fisted” WaPo/NYTimes style editorial-as-newstory item joining the line dumping on prince MbS.

    https://www.rt.com/news/410299-lebanon-saudi-hariri-hezbollah/

    Isn’t always interesting when everyone and their PR machines take a unified line on a person or idea or organization.

    Listen to this:

    Nonetheless, Riyadh’s whole scheme was so ham-fisted it seems barely credible that anyone thought that it could work smoothly in the television age, never mind in an era of dozens of competing Arab-language news networks, and millions of tweets (Hariri himself has dismissed the speculation as “lies”).

    Russians have a strong sense of humor. They sold 9/11 on “television” and (let’s note) everyone agrees with Bush the lesser that it was a “terrorist” event. If that they can sell that they can sell anything.

    So to translate RT: Doesn’t MbS realize that the reason we can sell events like Vegas or 9/11 “in the television” age is because “we” the international propaganda platforms of the top predators work together to sell the story. Poor “clown prince” now gets to see how we act in UNISON when any brown person cum “prince” goes off script and starts thinking independently.

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  33. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    I remember watching 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. On Israel part failure was multilevel from top of the military to the bottom. General staff led by air man. Concentration of almost all of land forces effort on small value prepared in advance target making fool of oneself wasting time and energy on this target, while bombing civilian targets. Inability to plan and take decisive deep moves to confront Hezbollah main forces defeating which would make far more military sense . Obviously IDF did not feel they could take losses associated with such course of actions and keep going and frankly I feel they knew they could not considering what we know now about performance of Israeli army at all levels. All in all israeli army got into the trap carefully prepared for them and got stuck there. Hezbollah pinned it there along the border and processed with hitting Israel proper showing complete failure of Israeli army and air force to achieve there goals. This is not performance of one if the best. Strategic and tactical failures were glaring and fighting spirit was poor as Israel could not do what was necessary to reverse the situation due to internal wariness and inability to take losses.

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    • Agree: Kiza, chris, Andrei Martyanov
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  34. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Johnny Rico
    All excellent points and insight. You won't hear any of that on CNN. Thank you.

    One thing Trump has not done is use US military power as a panacea for global turmoil by invading or attacking somewhere in force.He hasn't drawn down but hee hasn't expanded military use.

    The cruise-missile strike in Syria seemed more symbolic to get his detractors off his back. Sure, it has been less than a year and who knows what will happen - but this is more than can be said of ANY of his predecessors since Herbert Hoover with the exception of Jimmy Carter.

    The cruise-missile strike in Syria seemed more symbolic to get his detractors off his back.

    It “seemed” like he was caving in to the will of the swamp. Luckily, someone was kind enough to inform him afterwards that only the swamp was applauding the event while his base, and many independents, felt betrayed. That “symbolic” strike, based on transparently false justifications, cost him a lot of domestic and international support.

    Trump was at his strongest during the election. Every time WaPo or NYT tried to box him in he’d laugh in their faces and pushed in the opposite direction. His popularity among the voters surged whenever he refused to comply (or “get his detractors off his back”).

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  35. Regarding Israel. I am not holocaust denier but the course choosen by Israeli and jewish elites achieving own security and prosperity by denying it all to those who live next to them is nausetic. By causing directly or indirectly all that suffering in the region Israel completely forfeited what little justification it used to have to constantly cite Israeli security concerns.

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  36. @Kiza
    The Saker is really good when he stays away from the weapon systems and mine is bigger than yours. This strategic analysis of his is quite reasonable. Unlike what the trolls claim, Saker is not predicting an attack on Iran and neither am I. Simply, there is a struggle going on in US and EU, between the Zionist influence and the my-country-first resistance. The Zionists have been winning so far at a huge cost to the countries which were tools of their plans, they got away with the destruction of all five of the six countries targeted. But this “success” has solidified the resistance in the tool countries, united some Sunnis (Turkey) with the Shiites and, even worse, it has considerably strengthened the single remaining target country - Iran. In other words, the destruction of five out of six countries has been a very Pyrric victory of the Zionists.

    My best guess are two possible outcomes - if the Zionists manage to get US to attack Iran through some false-flag or otherwise, this will probably lead to the final dismounting of US from the global stage and US will turn inward to political instability and even possible civil war. In other words, the Zionists will spend up and sacrifice their main source of blood and treasure.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran. The Zionists have already used up most of the credit that their Ziomedia had and no reasonably intelligent person in US trusts a single word coming out of those media. I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. Yes, I feel that the Zionists have already used up all their aces and I just cannot imagine them inventing another original and powerful new war ace. I do not underestimate people’s gullibility but US has been truly economically too depleted to march into another war. In other words, if internal resistance prevented attack on Iran in 2007, such attack is even less likely to pass in 2017 or later, regardless of how much President Swamp is an Israeli puppet or not.

    I would stay away from weapons system as I am not qualified. But when Sacker is not writing about Soviet past but concentrates on such strategic issues like in his previous article he produces very good pieces. While I do think his current piece is speculative on nature, I would never dismiss predictability of stupidity. They did it in Lebanon in 2006. They can do it again. Until those crazies from basement are completely removed along with their backers influence there is no relaxing. Strange world. It all reminds of chimps throwing feces at each other rather than intelligent species. We are wasting resources and brain power to kill each other instead of going beyond our planet limits and investing in This what we invest in war.

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  37. Janet says:
    @Kiza
    The Saker is really good when he stays away from the weapon systems and mine is bigger than yours. This strategic analysis of his is quite reasonable. Unlike what the trolls claim, Saker is not predicting an attack on Iran and neither am I. Simply, there is a struggle going on in US and EU, between the Zionist influence and the my-country-first resistance. The Zionists have been winning so far at a huge cost to the countries which were tools of their plans, they got away with the destruction of all five of the six countries targeted. But this “success” has solidified the resistance in the tool countries, united some Sunnis (Turkey) with the Shiites and, even worse, it has considerably strengthened the single remaining target country - Iran. In other words, the destruction of five out of six countries has been a very Pyrric victory of the Zionists.

    My best guess are two possible outcomes - if the Zionists manage to get US to attack Iran through some false-flag or otherwise, this will probably lead to the final dismounting of US from the global stage and US will turn inward to political instability and even possible civil war. In other words, the Zionists will spend up and sacrifice their main source of blood and treasure.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran. The Zionists have already used up most of the credit that their Ziomedia had and no reasonably intelligent person in US trusts a single word coming out of those media. I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. Yes, I feel that the Zionists have already used up all their aces and I just cannot imagine them inventing another original and powerful new war ace. I do not underestimate people’s gullibility but US has been truly economically too depleted to march into another war. In other words, if internal resistance prevented attack on Iran in 2007, such attack is even less likely to pass in 2017 or later, regardless of how much President Swamp is an Israeli puppet or not.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran.

    You left out the third possibility. All those troops massing around Israel, is going to be pay back time for 9/11

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  38. Z-man says:
    @Virgile
    Saudis are not used to receive missiles on their head. They panicked when the Yemeni missile fell on their airport. I doubt that the crazy kinglet will start a war with Iran. What he could do is a false flag that kills a few saudis ( chemical weapons) to call the USA to retaliate...
    Yet they are so stupid that they would need Israeli expertise to setup the false flag. Israel wont take the chance to be exposed.. so nothing will happen.
    If they can't trigger US intervention they would just shut up and swallow their humilition, while Israel would be continue its attacks on Syria under the sacred principle of self protection.

    Lots of noise for nothing..

    the crazy kinglet

    I like that ! I call him the ‘clown prince’ and he looks like an idiot.

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  39. Z-man says:
    @MEexpert

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world.
     
    Ha Ha Ha! Remember 2006 war against Hezbollah? The best army ran with its tail between its legs. The "best army in the world" is only good at shooting unarmed Palestinian children and civilians.

    Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    First you should get your facts straight. It was Israel who attacked Hezbollah, not the other way around. Whether Israel will not be "so merciful" this time or not, I know Hezbollah will not be merciful in kicking Israel's "best army" in its rear end.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin "Jack Ass" Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran's nuclear weapons for a decade.

    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin “Jack Ass” Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran’s nuclear weapons for a decade.

    Thumbs up!

    Exactly! Donald ‘wake up’!!! Get that weird looking kike son in law of yours out of the WH, pronto!

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  40. The Zionist neocons and dual citizens of Israel control the U.S. government lock stock and gun barrel as was proven by the cover up of the USS LIBERTY and Israels blowing up the WTC and the pentagram, so when Israel goes to war the U.S. gov goes to war, the hand writing is on the wall.

    By the way it is my opinion that Jared Kushner is in the mossad.

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    • Replies: @Greg Bacon

    By the way it is my opinion that Jared Kushner is in the mossad.
     
    Agreed. Not only that, but it's a good possibility that the greedy punk Kushner got a promise of billions and billions from Saudi power man MBS if he could get Daddy Trump to attack Iran.

    If Trump is stupid or greedy enough to attack Iran, the USA and its overlord Israel will be in for some surprises.
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  41. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @MEexpert

    Israel has one of the best armies in the world.
     
    Ha Ha Ha! Remember 2006 war against Hezbollah? The best army ran with its tail between its legs. The "best army in the world" is only good at shooting unarmed Palestinian children and civilians.

    Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.
     
    First you should get your facts straight. It was Israel who attacked Hezbollah, not the other way around. Whether Israel will not be "so merciful" this time or not, I know Hezbollah will not be merciful in kicking Israel's "best army" in its rear end.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.
     
    Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin "Jack Ass" Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran's nuclear weapons for a decade.

    “Tell that to your hysterical Prime Minster, Benjamin “Jack Ass” Netanyahu. He has been crying wolf about Iran’s nuclear weapons for a decade.”

    https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/US-joins-the-warnings-1992-97

    1995: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon – and that the threat had to be “uprooted by an international front headed by the US.”

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  42. The latest version of the “Putin has won in Syria” argument, which is now being repeated so often that the “merchandise” obviously isn’t selling! If Putin makes himself the protector of Iran as he has made himself the protector of Syria, so much the better! He irreversibly bogged in Syria (as in Ukraine) and if he now goes and bogs himself down in Iran as well then that’s yet another nail in his coffin. We’ll have to call him Vladimir Boggedownovitch!
    Point 5 of the “Israeli” point of view is interesting. Israel and the US do indeed look like total idiots and have indeed no credibility left. Who caused that? Putin! Obvious solution: take out Putin! At that point, the problems in Ukraine, Syria, Iran and North Korea are solved in one swoop and the Russian Federation returns to the peaceful place at the European table that it was taking until somebody (American?) filled the little policeman’s head with pipedreams of “Eurasian” glory.
    By the way, I never trust people who conceal their identity: Southfront, Moon of Alabama. It usually means that the site is a front of some sort. Credibility zero, therefore.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    You understanding of what it means to get bogged down is obviously confused and misplaced. If you want real definition of getting bogged down look no further than USA in Afghanistan and Iraq.
    , @War for Blair Mountain
    Return to the table where it can be gang raped by OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!...and The Democratic Party...

    Your a sicko...for Christian Russia will resist ferociously if it’s Red Line is crossed=nuclear WW3...

    I think you understand this obvious point....

    Absolutely urgent that the NEOCONS be rounded up and dipped in car battery acid.....

    Saker’s and SmoothieX1’s larger point is that Christian Russia really does have a RED LINE that must never be crossed....Only practicing SATANISTS such as John Bolton and Michael Morell are eager to do this...for they are veritable corpse eaters from HELL!!!
    , @Ilyana_Rozumova
    Sour grapes.
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  43. @Kiza
    The Saker is really good when he stays away from the weapon systems and mine is bigger than yours. This strategic analysis of his is quite reasonable. Unlike what the trolls claim, Saker is not predicting an attack on Iran and neither am I. Simply, there is a struggle going on in US and EU, between the Zionist influence and the my-country-first resistance. The Zionists have been winning so far at a huge cost to the countries which were tools of their plans, they got away with the destruction of all five of the six countries targeted. But this “success” has solidified the resistance in the tool countries, united some Sunnis (Turkey) with the Shiites and, even worse, it has considerably strengthened the single remaining target country - Iran. In other words, the destruction of five out of six countries has been a very Pyrric victory of the Zionists.

    My best guess are two possible outcomes - if the Zionists manage to get US to attack Iran through some false-flag or otherwise, this will probably lead to the final dismounting of US from the global stage and US will turn inward to political instability and even possible civil war. In other words, the Zionists will spend up and sacrifice their main source of blood and treasure.

    The second possible outcome is a status quo with a lot of Israeli barking and strong resistance in the US to being dragged into an attack on Iran. The Zionists have already used up most of the credit that their Ziomedia had and no reasonably intelligent person in US trusts a single word coming out of those media. I just cannot imagine another successful 911 type event which could mobilise US dummies into a war on Iran. Yes, I feel that the Zionists have already used up all their aces and I just cannot imagine them inventing another original and powerful new war ace. I do not underestimate people’s gullibility but US has been truly economically too depleted to march into another war. In other words, if internal resistance prevented attack on Iran in 2007, such attack is even less likely to pass in 2017 or later, regardless of how much President Swamp is an Israeli puppet or not.

    Kiza

    A bloody Civil War in the 2017 version of America will be a bloody Race War……What could be more obvious?

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    • Replies: @Kiza
    How about a score-settling war? IMHO all wars are about thieving and score settling, both. And it may not be in 2017, then in the next decade.
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  44. @Michael Kenny
    The latest version of the “Putin has won in Syria” argument, which is now being repeated so often that the “merchandise” obviously isn’t selling! If Putin makes himself the protector of Iran as he has made himself the protector of Syria, so much the better! He irreversibly bogged in Syria (as in Ukraine) and if he now goes and bogs himself down in Iran as well then that’s yet another nail in his coffin. We’ll have to call him Vladimir Boggedownovitch!
    Point 5 of the “Israeli” point of view is interesting. Israel and the US do indeed look like total idiots and have indeed no credibility left. Who caused that? Putin! Obvious solution: take out Putin! At that point, the problems in Ukraine, Syria, Iran and North Korea are solved in one swoop and the Russian Federation returns to the peaceful place at the European table that it was taking until somebody (American?) filled the little policeman’s head with pipedreams of “Eurasian” glory.
    By the way, I never trust people who conceal their identity: Southfront, Moon of Alabama. It usually means that the site is a front of some sort. Credibility zero, therefore.

    You understanding of what it means to get bogged down is obviously confused and misplaced. If you want real definition of getting bogged down look no further than USA in Afghanistan and Iraq.

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  45. @Michael Kenny
    The latest version of the “Putin has won in Syria” argument, which is now being repeated so often that the “merchandise” obviously isn’t selling! If Putin makes himself the protector of Iran as he has made himself the protector of Syria, so much the better! He irreversibly bogged in Syria (as in Ukraine) and if he now goes and bogs himself down in Iran as well then that’s yet another nail in his coffin. We’ll have to call him Vladimir Boggedownovitch!
    Point 5 of the “Israeli” point of view is interesting. Israel and the US do indeed look like total idiots and have indeed no credibility left. Who caused that? Putin! Obvious solution: take out Putin! At that point, the problems in Ukraine, Syria, Iran and North Korea are solved in one swoop and the Russian Federation returns to the peaceful place at the European table that it was taking until somebody (American?) filled the little policeman’s head with pipedreams of “Eurasian” glory.
    By the way, I never trust people who conceal their identity: Southfront, Moon of Alabama. It usually means that the site is a front of some sort. Credibility zero, therefore.

    Return to the table where it can be gang raped by OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!…and The Democratic Party…

    Your a sicko…for Christian Russia will resist ferociously if it’s Red Line is crossed=nuclear WW3…

    I think you understand this obvious point….

    Absolutely urgent that the NEOCONS be rounded up and dipped in car battery acid…..

    Saker’s and SmoothieX1’s larger point is that Christian Russia really does have a RED LINE that must never be crossed….Only practicing SATANISTS such as John Bolton and Michael Morell are eager to do this…for they are veritable corpse eaters from HELL!!!

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  46. Greg Bacon says: • Website
    @DESERT FOX
    The Zionist neocons and dual citizens of Israel control the U.S. government lock stock and gun barrel as was proven by the cover up of the USS LIBERTY and Israels blowing up the WTC and the pentagram, so when Israel goes to war the U.S. gov goes to war, the hand writing is on the wall.

    By the way it is my opinion that Jared Kushner is in the mossad.

    By the way it is my opinion that Jared Kushner is in the mossad.

    Agreed. Not only that, but it’s a good possibility that the greedy punk Kushner got a promise of billions and billions from Saudi power man MBS if he could get Daddy Trump to attack Iran.

    If Trump is stupid or greedy enough to attack Iran, the USA and its overlord Israel will be in for some surprises.

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  47. Israel and the US look like total idiots and, even worse, as losers with no credibility left.

    Yes that is obviously true.

    But they were successful in Libya. The progress they have achieved there is amazing!!!!

    Finally there is flourishing slave trade there.

    (But then!
    Who is buying the slaves?)

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  48. Trump is compromised , he will do whatever the Zionist neocons and Netanyahu tell him to do, and Kushner is the order passer to Trump.

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israels mercenary, but here it is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @War for Blair Mountain
    Yes...we are a vassal State t0 OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!


    Donald Trump has the moral spine of a decaying....rotting......old smelly Jelly Fish....


    Donald Trump is using the Native Born White Christian Teenage Male Population from the American Heartland as cannon fodder for OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!!...This is Donald’s MAGA!!! jobs program......


    Donald Trump=WARHAWK CHICKENHAWK GREEDY COWARD....This is Donald Trump....right down to the wick of his malodorous being.....
    , @Miro23

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israel's mercenary, but here it is.
     
    It's even worse - mercenaries get paid. US "mercenaries" have to pay their own bills, along with being called Deplorables.
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  49. Mikel says:
    @Frankie P
    For someone interested solely in the military/technical aspect of Mr. Martyanov's comment, you show very little understanding of recent history, believing that penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy. Please watch the following video and then make some more comments on it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3CuDbbr5tA

    Frankie P

    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I’ll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don’t know why you think that I believe that “penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy”. If that were the case, we wouldn’t have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn’t been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).
     
    Well...the answer is simple.

    They have an agenda to sell here and the most of posters here are on the same page: West bad/weak/stupid Russia good/strong/wise.
    Adjust the reality around that.

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    How is easy.
    In exactly the same way people wanting to believe in something explain things.

    Pick up certain facts, omit the rest.
    Keep hammering the message.
    If that fails call the doubter names.
    Rinse and repeat.

    You won't find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places, analyze and think for yourself and then you'd be close enough.

    As for those Israeli incursions, my take is: they are not about capability of weapons; they are about politics.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.
     
    1. Stop obvious BS. Israeli DO NOT "violate" those air defense, since they do not attack (and they can't) ANY Russian targets which those air defenses are there to protect. Israel attacks SAA's targets. See the difference? Russia is not, at this stage, in the state of war with Israel, which would open legal and operational framework for shooting down Israel's AF assets.

    2. Should Israel have had such an intention and attack Russian targets--we would be living in a very different world today. Russians do not take lightly attacks on their targets and the case of USS Liberty is impossible. The "argument" of Su-24 shot down by Turkish AF is not applicable here. Why, is a separate issue. Israel knows it and is also in a full hysteria mode as I type it and it is precisely because should the push comes to shove IDF's "plans" on Syria will not work anymore. Especially, since Russian VKS MAY at some point of time get the order to impose real no-fly zone. This is not to speak of the fact that Israelis DO inform Russian forces in Syria on their plans.

    3. Do not conflate two very different issues. This is exactly what you did.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question
     
    Did you get the answer now or do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    You "exposed" absolutely nothing and there are many "simple civilians" even in this threat who have absolutely no difficulty in grasping key political, diplomatic and operational issues re: Russian forces in Syria.
    , @L.K
    "...the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed."

    You have exposed nothing, you are just a silly person.
    Whether or not the Russian A.A systems are as good as advertised is another matter, but the reason that Syria is not trying to shoot down the israelis is mainly because it does not need further escalation at this time... Syria has been fighting a very difficult war since 2011 and engaging the israelis now would not be a smart move, even more so as it could provide additional BS 'motives' for ZUSA to increase its illegal military footprint in the country.

    The job is to eliminate the main threat which are the various Salafi/mercenary groups backed by the ZUSA coalition that have been plaguing the country since 2011.
    That goal is getting closer & closer by the day. Isis nearly gone in Syria, after that; the Nusra coalition in Idlib.
    , @Sam J.
    "...I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed..."

    First I'll state I really don't know for sure but I think it likely that the Russians aren't shooting down all the Israeli aircraft to keep from making the war widen. If they did start shooting down all the aircraft then the Israelis would start shooting missiles to attack the anti-missle sites. Lots of risk. Major escalation. Second I don't think the Russians could shoot down all the craft due to electronic countermeasures. However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft. With the antiaircraft missiles in place it puts a crimp on Israeli operations. They have to stay away from certain areas or fly specific paths to avoid detection. They can not use the full capabilities of their aircraft. They can't KNOW exactly when the Russians have had enough and if this happens they will pay dearly so the Israelis have to be more prudent in where they strike or lose capabilities they have.
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  50. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    You are childish! (Or maybe you are child?)

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  51. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Israel merciful? that’s a laugh and your an idiot

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  52. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel
    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I'll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don't know why you think that I believe that "penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy". If that were the case, we wouldn't have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I'm a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn't been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    Well…the answer is simple.

    They have an agenda to sell here and the most of posters here are on the same page: West bad/weak/stupid Russia good/strong/wise.
    Adjust the reality around that.

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.

    How is easy.
    In exactly the same way people wanting to believe in something explain things.

    Pick up certain facts, omit the rest.
    Keep hammering the message.
    If that fails call the doubter names.
    Rinse and repeat.

    You won’t find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places, analyze and think for yourself and then you’d be close enough.

    As for those Israeli incursions, my take is: they are not about capability of weapons; they are about politics.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel

    You won’t find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places,...
     
    Fear not about that. The funny thing is that in the past few days I've been accused of being a "Kremlin-troll" several times in other websites that I also frequent.

    Trying to get an approximate picture of where reality lies is indeed challenging but I think that I learnt that well during my five years at University. Nothing new. While these gentlemen's agenda shines through, I think that they sincerely believe what they say so that should give some scope for debate and discussion if one engages them with specific questions.
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  53. @Mikel
    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I'll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don't know why you think that I believe that "penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy". If that were the case, we wouldn't have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I'm a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn't been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    1. Stop obvious BS. Israeli DO NOT “violate” those air defense, since they do not attack (and they can’t) ANY Russian targets which those air defenses are there to protect. Israel attacks SAA’s targets. See the difference? Russia is not, at this stage, in the state of war with Israel, which would open legal and operational framework for shooting down Israel’s AF assets.

    2. Should Israel have had such an intention and attack Russian targets–we would be living in a very different world today. Russians do not take lightly attacks on their targets and the case of USS Liberty is impossible. The “argument” of Su-24 shot down by Turkish AF is not applicable here. Why, is a separate issue. Israel knows it and is also in a full hysteria mode as I type it and it is precisely because should the push comes to shove IDF’s “plans” on Syria will not work anymore. Especially, since Russian VKS MAY at some point of time get the order to impose real no-fly zone. This is not to speak of the fact that Israelis DO inform Russian forces in Syria on their plans.

    3. Do not conflate two very different issues. This is exactly what you did.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question

    Did you get the answer now or do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.

    You “exposed” absolutely nothing and there are many “simple civilians” even in this threat who have absolutely no difficulty in grasping key political, diplomatic and operational issues re: Russian forces in Syria.

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    • Replies: @Frankie P
    Thank you for patiently explaining to this fool the political and operational details of the integrated air defenses, and the logical and practical Russian strategy of responding only to threats to their own forces. I'm afraid that this simple civilian clown will disappear without comment, continuing his mistaken beliefs that because Wonder Woman Gal Gadot served in the IDF, they must be the most formidable forces in the region. After all, he saw her fly with his own eyes.

    Frankie P
    , @utu
    The bottom line is that Russia can't impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia's allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.
    , @Mikel

    do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?
     
    Well, it's not a problem of answering my question "even more in depth". It's a question of answering it with at least somedepth, if possible.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated "in one single network" but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    That is possible. But a dispassionate observer should also contemplate the alternative hypothesis that, in fact, that Russian superiority might not really exist. After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets. After each of the first three incidents that I just listed, Russian officials warned that measures would be taken to prevent them from happening again but nothing much seems to have happened.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures. But, given their technological superiority, if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I'm concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.
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  54. @Johnny Rico
    Wow. Predicting military conflict in the Middle-East. Another bold article by The Saker.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/16/israeli-jets-attack-anti-aircraft-battery-in-syria-in-retaliatory-strike

    2800 words was exhausting. Especially since it was pure conspiracy theory.

    You set up a straw man by fabricating a ten-point "AngloZionist" plan of goals. Then you claim this has all failed so the Jews and Neocons and ZioWahabis (Jesus, are you for real?) must be really angry so they are going to launch a war for no reason in particular.

    You really never provide any names or dialogue or agreements or meetings or UN resolutions or history. Only your view and opinion. Convenient. Pure rant about a vague AngloZionist conspiracy to control the world. Ironically, the one name and quote you provide doesn't support your insistence on war.

    The Syrian "state" has "survived" AND is "stronger"? Seriously? "Remain unitary"? Pretty sure there is still a civil war going on in Syria AND next door in Iraq. But don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

    The YPG still seems to control Syria east of the Euphrates and the US still has a small contingent there.

    My feeling is that the Russian and Israeli and American general staffs and ambassadors would laugh if they read this article. They are probably all in the same room right now. They could read it together.


    But their problem is that their only true area of expertise is massacring defenseless civilians, that they are real experts at.
     
    LOL. Like the Russians in Chechnya. Twice!

    As for the Israelis, they are offering to share intelligence (read: targeting data) with the Saudis. How touching it is to see these two medieval, backward and generally evil regimes are so willing to work together. At least they are both now showing their true, ugly, faces!
     
    I know, right? It’s amazing they have managed to take over Hollywood, The World, and the New York Times.

    This line should have been the title of the piece:


    “The following is only my speculation and nothing more. I have no way of knowing…”
     
    The boring reality is that all the governments and militaries involved (with the exception of ISIS and/or other jihadi-types) employ many more level-headed advisers and leaders like Admiral Fallon than The Saker wants us to believe.

    Turn off Fox news for 5 minutes idiot you might just learn something

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  55. @Michael Kenny
    The latest version of the “Putin has won in Syria” argument, which is now being repeated so often that the “merchandise” obviously isn’t selling! If Putin makes himself the protector of Iran as he has made himself the protector of Syria, so much the better! He irreversibly bogged in Syria (as in Ukraine) and if he now goes and bogs himself down in Iran as well then that’s yet another nail in his coffin. We’ll have to call him Vladimir Boggedownovitch!
    Point 5 of the “Israeli” point of view is interesting. Israel and the US do indeed look like total idiots and have indeed no credibility left. Who caused that? Putin! Obvious solution: take out Putin! At that point, the problems in Ukraine, Syria, Iran and North Korea are solved in one swoop and the Russian Federation returns to the peaceful place at the European table that it was taking until somebody (American?) filled the little policeman’s head with pipedreams of “Eurasian” glory.
    By the way, I never trust people who conceal their identity: Southfront, Moon of Alabama. It usually means that the site is a front of some sort. Credibility zero, therefore.

    Sour grapes.

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  56. @DESERT FOX
    Trump is compromised , he will do whatever the Zionist neocons and Netanyahu tell him to do, and Kushner is the order passer to Trump.

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israels mercenary, but here it is.

    Yes…we are a vassal State t0 OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!

    Donald Trump has the moral spine of a decaying….rotting……old smelly Jelly Fish….

    Donald Trump is using the Native Born White Christian Teenage Male Population from the American Heartland as cannon fodder for OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!!…This is Donald’s MAGA!!! jobs program……

    Donald Trump=WARHAWK CHICKENHAWK GREEDY COWARD….This is Donald Trump….right down to the wick of his malodorous being…..

    Read More
    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
    Agree, Trump is beholden to the Zionist bankers who support his business house of cards and the only difference between Trump and Helliary is their plumbing.
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  57. L.K says:
    @Mikel
    No, sorry. I was only interested in the military/technical aspect of Martyanov's comment. My interest in Middle Eastern politics is very limited. I am actually glad to see the Syrian/Russian side winning but, at the same time, I don't believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration or anything like that.

    “…I don’t believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration..”

    What you believe or don’t ain’t worthwhile but the Syrian war is not really a ‘civil war’ at all and the fact that it originates with a zionist-ZUSA-Saudi conspiracy is well established:

    WikiLeaks: US, Israel, And Saudi Arabia Planned Overthrow Of Syrian Govt. In 2006
    [...]Cables reveal that before the beginning of the Syrian revolt and civil war, the United States hoped to overthrow Assad and create strife between Shiite and Sunni Muslims

    The United States and its allies in the Middle East, including Turkey and Israel, have been frequently accused of contributing to the ongoing destabilization of Syria in the wake of the uprising and subsequent civil war which began in 2011. But according to cables from the WikiLeaks archive, discussed in the Syria chapter of Assange’s book, plans to deliberately destabilize the region go back at least five years further.[...]
    WikiLeaks cables reveal that these plans came from the Israeli government, and show that the U.S. government intended to work with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt to encourage the breakdown of the Assad regime as a way of also weakening Iran and Hezbollah.

    http://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-planned-overthrow-of-syrian-govt-in-2006/221784/

    Read More
    • Replies: @James Speaks
    Calling the covert invasion of Syria a civil war is easy b/c we are conditioned to think of Arabs and Muslims as incapable of living peacefully.

    Very often, a complaint or set of complaints against one individual or group is really aimed at another.

    All the the anti-Muslim rhetoric is nothing more than a device to neuter the one group,
    Arabs, who would be capable of disarming the mindless, pro-Israel lobby.
    , @Ram
    All the bluster from Nikky Haley at the UN is to find a legal loophole to legitimise the illegal presence of US troops (with surrogates) to remain in Syria. Russia was bitten once too often on Libya, and is far more alert to US duplicity.
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  58. L.K says:
    @Mikel
    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I'll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don't know why you think that I believe that "penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy". If that were the case, we wouldn't have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I'm a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn't been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    “…the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.”

    You have exposed nothing, you are just a silly person.
    Whether or not the Russian A.A systems are as good as advertised is another matter, but the reason that Syria is not trying to shoot down the israelis is mainly because it does not need further escalation at this time… Syria has been fighting a very difficult war since 2011 and engaging the israelis now would not be a smart move, even more so as it could provide additional BS ‘motives’ for ZUSA to increase its illegal military footprint in the country.

    The job is to eliminate the main threat which are the various Salafi/mercenary groups backed by the ZUSA coalition that have been plaguing the country since 2011.
    That goal is getting closer & closer by the day. Isis nearly gone in Syria, after that; the Nusra coalition in Idlib.

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  59. smart of russia to extend us warfrontline by taking ukraine when iran is under attack?

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  60. @L.K
    "...I don’t believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration.."

    What you believe or don't ain't worthwhile but the Syrian war is not really a 'civil war' at all and the fact that it originates with a zionist-ZUSA-Saudi conspiracy is well established:

    WikiLeaks: US, Israel, And Saudi Arabia Planned Overthrow Of Syrian Govt. In 2006
    [...]Cables reveal that before the beginning of the Syrian revolt and civil war, the United States hoped to overthrow Assad and create strife between Shiite and Sunni Muslims

    The United States and its allies in the Middle East, including Turkey and Israel, have been frequently accused of contributing to the ongoing destabilization of Syria in the wake of the uprising and subsequent civil war which began in 2011. But according to cables from the WikiLeaks archive, discussed in the Syria chapter of Assange’s book, plans to deliberately destabilize the region go back at least five years further.[...]
    WikiLeaks cables reveal that these plans came from the Israeli government, and show that the U.S. government intended to work with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt to encourage the breakdown of the Assad regime as a way of also weakening Iran and Hezbollah.
     
    http://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-planned-overthrow-of-syrian-govt-in-2006/221784/

    Calling the covert invasion of Syria a civil war is easy b/c we are conditioned to think of Arabs and Muslims as incapable of living peacefully.

    Very often, a complaint or set of complaints against one individual or group is really aimed at another.

    All the the anti-Muslim rhetoric is nothing more than a device to neuter the one group,
    Arabs, who would be capable of disarming the mindless, pro-Israel lobby.

    Read More
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  61. @War for Blair Mountain
    Yes...we are a vassal State t0 OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!


    Donald Trump has the moral spine of a decaying....rotting......old smelly Jelly Fish....


    Donald Trump is using the Native Born White Christian Teenage Male Population from the American Heartland as cannon fodder for OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!!...This is Donald’s MAGA!!! jobs program......


    Donald Trump=WARHAWK CHICKENHAWK GREEDY COWARD....This is Donald Trump....right down to the wick of his malodorous being.....

    Agree, Trump is beholden to the Zionist bankers who support his business house of cards and the only difference between Trump and Helliary is their plumbing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @SolontoCroesus
    Who is propping up the stock market? That's one of Trump's key selling points.

    Is he being held hostage by banksters who are managing that 'trillion $ bubble'?

    With baby boomers increasingly dependent on retirement savings/401ks, Trump's failure to comply with bankster demands could mean pulling the rug out of the stock market and plunging hundreds of thousands of retirees into penury.
    , @War for Blair Mountain
    Don’t forget.....they both wear adult diapers.....

    Melania does it for the $$$$$$.....it’s a very old profession you know....
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  62. Another piece of outstanding journalism by Gareth Porter

    Israel’s Ploy Selling a Syrian Nuke Strike
    November 18, 2017

    https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/18/israels-ploy-selling-a-syrian-nuke-strike/

    In September 2007, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in eastern Syria that the Israelis claimed held a covert nuclear reactor that had been built with North Korean assistance. . . .

    But nothing about that alleged reactor in the Syrian desert turns out to be what it appeared at the time. The evidence now available shows that there was no such nuclear reactor, and that the Israelis had misled George W. Bush’s administration into believing that it was in order to draw the United States into bombing missile storage sites in Syria. Other evidence now suggests, moreover, that the Syrian government had led the Israelis to believe wrongly that it was a key storage site for Hezbollah missiles and rockets.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art

    In September 2007, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in eastern Syria that the Israelis claimed held a covert nuclear reactor that had been built with North Korean assistance. . . .
     
    S2C,

    Never could believe that story – how could one or two buildings on one site, be a nuclear reactor – that is nuts.

    It shows the mendacious nature of the Jews – they will lie to everyone. The Jews have no honor.

    The Jews moral quotient (MQ) is inversely proportional to their IQ.

    The smarter they are, the more devious they are.

    Think Peace --- Art
    , @Cloak And Dagger
    That is quite an exposé! I am not finding this story anywhere in the MSM...
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  63. @DESERT FOX
    Agree, Trump is beholden to the Zionist bankers who support his business house of cards and the only difference between Trump and Helliary is their plumbing.

    Who is propping up the stock market? That’s one of Trump’s key selling points.

    Is he being held hostage by banksters who are managing that ‘trillion $ bubble’?

    With baby boomers increasingly dependent on retirement savings/401ks, Trump’s failure to comply with bankster demands could mean pulling the rug out of the stock market and plunging hundreds of thousands of retirees into penury.

    Read More
    • Replies: @DESERT FOX
    Trump is totally under the control the Zionist bankers and the Zionist neocons so he is not going to do anything contrary to Israels agenda, the U.S. has been under Zionist control since 1913 with the passage of the Federal Reserve which is privately owned by the Zionist bankers.

    Trump is a Zionist Trojan Horse.
    , @Anon
    Banks themselves invest in the stock market. If the market plunges, so do their own investments. Nobody benefits from a plunging market except for people who are shorting the market.
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  64. @DESERT FOX
    Agree, Trump is beholden to the Zionist bankers who support his business house of cards and the only difference between Trump and Helliary is their plumbing.

    Don’t forget…..they both wear adult diapers…..

    Melania does it for the $$$$$$…..it’s a very old profession you know….

    Read More
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  65. @SolontoCroesus
    Who is propping up the stock market? That's one of Trump's key selling points.

    Is he being held hostage by banksters who are managing that 'trillion $ bubble'?

    With baby boomers increasingly dependent on retirement savings/401ks, Trump's failure to comply with bankster demands could mean pulling the rug out of the stock market and plunging hundreds of thousands of retirees into penury.

    Trump is totally under the control the Zionist bankers and the Zionist neocons so he is not going to do anything contrary to Israels agenda, the U.S. has been under Zionist control since 1913 with the passage of the Federal Reserve which is privately owned by the Zionist bankers.

    Trump is a Zionist Trojan Horse.

    Read More
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  66. Miro23 says:
    @DESERT FOX
    Trump is compromised , he will do whatever the Zionist neocons and Netanyahu tell him to do, and Kushner is the order passer to Trump.

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israels mercenary, but here it is.

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israel’s mercenary, but here it is.

    It’s even worse – mercenaries get paid. US “mercenaries” have to pay their own bills, along with being called Deplorables.

    Read More
    • Replies: @nsa
    The despised Deplorables morphed into beloved Deployables in service of the maniacal Jooies. "Thank you for your service".....suckers.
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  67. Ram says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Not all of the nukes are aimed at Iran. Many are aimed at European cities (The Samson Option).

    AS for the Israeli air power with the brand new F35s, one has already come to grief being the victim of an S-200 missile, an old has been from a past era. Today it has the cover from more modern S-400 at Hmeimeem.

    The army too is better led and far more able, doing most if not all of the fighting itself. Whatsmore, they still believe in the 72 virgins too.

    Read More
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  68. Ram says:
    @L.K
    "...I don’t believe that the Syrian civil war and the rest of the Arab uprisings were organized by any anglo-zionist conspiration.."

    What you believe or don't ain't worthwhile but the Syrian war is not really a 'civil war' at all and the fact that it originates with a zionist-ZUSA-Saudi conspiracy is well established:

    WikiLeaks: US, Israel, And Saudi Arabia Planned Overthrow Of Syrian Govt. In 2006
    [...]Cables reveal that before the beginning of the Syrian revolt and civil war, the United States hoped to overthrow Assad and create strife between Shiite and Sunni Muslims

    The United States and its allies in the Middle East, including Turkey and Israel, have been frequently accused of contributing to the ongoing destabilization of Syria in the wake of the uprising and subsequent civil war which began in 2011. But according to cables from the WikiLeaks archive, discussed in the Syria chapter of Assange’s book, plans to deliberately destabilize the region go back at least five years further.[...]
    WikiLeaks cables reveal that these plans came from the Israeli government, and show that the U.S. government intended to work with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and Egypt to encourage the breakdown of the Assad regime as a way of also weakening Iran and Hezbollah.
     
    http://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-planned-overthrow-of-syrian-govt-in-2006/221784/

    All the bluster from Nikky Haley at the UN is to find a legal loophole to legitimise the illegal presence of US troops (with surrogates) to remain in Syria. Russia was bitten once too often on Libya, and is far more alert to US duplicity.

    Read More
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  69. Frankie P says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.
     
    1. Stop obvious BS. Israeli DO NOT "violate" those air defense, since they do not attack (and they can't) ANY Russian targets which those air defenses are there to protect. Israel attacks SAA's targets. See the difference? Russia is not, at this stage, in the state of war with Israel, which would open legal and operational framework for shooting down Israel's AF assets.

    2. Should Israel have had such an intention and attack Russian targets--we would be living in a very different world today. Russians do not take lightly attacks on their targets and the case of USS Liberty is impossible. The "argument" of Su-24 shot down by Turkish AF is not applicable here. Why, is a separate issue. Israel knows it and is also in a full hysteria mode as I type it and it is precisely because should the push comes to shove IDF's "plans" on Syria will not work anymore. Especially, since Russian VKS MAY at some point of time get the order to impose real no-fly zone. This is not to speak of the fact that Israelis DO inform Russian forces in Syria on their plans.

    3. Do not conflate two very different issues. This is exactly what you did.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question
     
    Did you get the answer now or do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    You "exposed" absolutely nothing and there are many "simple civilians" even in this threat who have absolutely no difficulty in grasping key political, diplomatic and operational issues re: Russian forces in Syria.

    Thank you for patiently explaining to this fool the political and operational details of the integrated air defenses, and the logical and practical Russian strategy of responding only to threats to their own forces. I’m afraid that this simple civilian clown will disappear without comment, continuing his mistaken beliefs that because Wonder Woman Gal Gadot served in the IDF, they must be the most formidable forces in the region. After all, he saw her fly with his own eyes.

    Frankie P

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  70. Sam J. says:

    If you assume the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths they make perfect sense. I’m not saying all Jews are or even a majority but a lot. The Jews have done well because psychopaths are very aggressive and have a very low threshold for fear. They also have long running whacko schemes that most people would think are too stupid to ever pull off and that no one in their right mind would try. This actually works in the Jews/psychopaths favor because of surprise and the disbelief that anyone could be so evil or have so little humanity. The problem is the psychopaths get caught up in their own belief system where they are the ultimate rulers and they can do no wrong. The have been able to do this throughout all history as they could always pick up and move when they angered the populous they were screwing where ever they were and pretend to be abused in the new land they moved to. This strategy is falling apart. Worldwide news shows the Jews screw everyone everywhere they get involved with them.

    Their hatred has driven them into a tight hole. They’ve destroyed the US and Europe. Constant attacks on Whites verbally in the media they control, financial attacks with the FED and banks and several terrorist attacks (9-11, Boston, Las Vegas, etc.) so they’re rapidly wearing out their welcome in the White countries. They can’t move to China or India. They know. One of the best selling books in China is “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion”. And we all know what their neighbors in Israel think about them. I suspect they will try to start some kind of world war that will wipe out most of the residents of planet Earth as they are stuck and the last thing they will try to do is…be decent human beings.

    Even if the Jews aren’t a tribe of psychopaths their actions as a group are so similar to psychopaths that if you assume they are you will never be surprised and all their schemes and hatred will be laid plain.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    Voltaire:

    “The Kaffirs, the Hottentots, and the Negroes of Guinea are much more reasonable and more honest people than your ancestors, the Jews. You have surpassed all nations in impertinent fables, in bad conduct, and in barbarism. You deserve to be punished, for this is your destiny.” “They are, all of them, born with raging fanaticism in their hearts, just as the Bretons and the Germans are born with blond hair. I would not be in the least bit surprised if these people would not some day become deadly to the human race.”
     
    They also have long running whacko schemes that most people would think are too stupid to ever pull off and that no one in their right mind would try.

    This is because Kant's two categorical imperatives are not considered universal by Jews.
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  71. Sam J. says:
    @Mikel
    No, sorry. I see that that video is 22 min long and appears to talk about tanks, which is unrelated to the simple question that I asked. I'll pass on using my weekend time watching it.

    I don't know why you think that I believe that "penetrating airspace and aerial bombing of civilians is the key to military supremacy". If that were the case, we wouldn't have witnessed the heroic victory of the USSR against Germany.

    Look, I'm a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed. The Saker states that Russia has integrated its own air defense capabilities with Syria into a single network, which hasn't been challenged by Martyanov. However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).

    “…I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed…”

    First I’ll state I really don’t know for sure but I think it likely that the Russians aren’t shooting down all the Israeli aircraft to keep from making the war widen. If they did start shooting down all the aircraft then the Israelis would start shooting missiles to attack the anti-missle sites. Lots of risk. Major escalation. Second I don’t think the Russians could shoot down all the craft due to electronic countermeasures. However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft. With the antiaircraft missiles in place it puts a crimp on Israeli operations. They have to stay away from certain areas or fly specific paths to avoid detection. They can not use the full capabilities of their aircraft. They can’t KNOW exactly when the Russians have had enough and if this happens they will pay dearly so the Israelis have to be more prudent in where they strike or lose capabilities they have.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft.

    Let's try to estimate the number of planes they can shoot down. How many S-XXX batteries Russia has in Syria. Say N batteries. Each battery has K tubes. How much time does it take to reload K tubes? Say ∆T minutes.

    N*K<40

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.

    Israel can swarm and overwhelm Russia's defense. N*K is no more than 40. Out of 40 missiles at best 20 will hit their targets. This leaves 380 Israel planes. Each battery that launches one missile will be destroyed in less than ∆T time.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.

    The total operation would last less than 60 minutes to wipe out everything Russia has in Syria that can shoot down a plane and everything they have that can fly.
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  72. Art says:
    @SolontoCroesus
    Another piece of outstanding journalism by Gareth Porter

    Israel’s Ploy Selling a Syrian Nuke Strike
    November 18, 2017
    https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/18/israels-ploy-selling-a-syrian-nuke-strike/

    In September 2007, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in eastern Syria that the Israelis claimed held a covert nuclear reactor that had been built with North Korean assistance. . . .

    But nothing about that alleged reactor in the Syrian desert turns out to be what it appeared at the time. The evidence now available shows that there was no such nuclear reactor, and that the Israelis had misled George W. Bush’s administration into believing that it was in order to draw the United States into bombing missile storage sites in Syria. Other evidence now suggests, moreover, that the Syrian government had led the Israelis to believe wrongly that it was a key storage site for Hezbollah missiles and rockets.
     

    In September 2007, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in eastern Syria that the Israelis claimed held a covert nuclear reactor that had been built with North Korean assistance. . . .

    S2C,

    Never could believe that story – how could one or two buildings on one site, be a nuclear reactor – that is nuts.

    It shows the mendacious nature of the Jews – they will lie to everyone. The Jews have no honor.

    The Jews moral quotient (MQ) is inversely proportional to their IQ.

    The smarter they are, the more devious they are.

    Think Peace — Art

    Read More
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  73. utu says:
    @Sam J.
    If you assume the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths they make perfect sense. I'm not saying all Jews are or even a majority but a lot. The Jews have done well because psychopaths are very aggressive and have a very low threshold for fear. They also have long running whacko schemes that most people would think are too stupid to ever pull off and that no one in their right mind would try. This actually works in the Jews/psychopaths favor because of surprise and the disbelief that anyone could be so evil or have so little humanity. The problem is the psychopaths get caught up in their own belief system where they are the ultimate rulers and they can do no wrong. The have been able to do this throughout all history as they could always pick up and move when they angered the populous they were screwing where ever they were and pretend to be abused in the new land they moved to. This strategy is falling apart. Worldwide news shows the Jews screw everyone everywhere they get involved with them.

    Their hatred has driven them into a tight hole. They've destroyed the US and Europe. Constant attacks on Whites verbally in the media they control, financial attacks with the FED and banks and several terrorist attacks (9-11, Boston, Las Vegas, etc.) so they're rapidly wearing out their welcome in the White countries. They can't move to China or India. They know. One of the best selling books in China is "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion". And we all know what their neighbors in Israel think about them. I suspect they will try to start some kind of world war that will wipe out most of the residents of planet Earth as they are stuck and the last thing they will try to do is...be decent human beings.


    Even if the Jews aren't a tribe of psychopaths their actions as a group are so similar to psychopaths that if you assume they are you will never be surprised and all their schemes and hatred will be laid plain.

    Voltaire:

    “The Kaffirs, the Hottentots, and the Negroes of Guinea are much more reasonable and more honest people than your ancestors, the Jews. You have surpassed all nations in impertinent fables, in bad conduct, and in barbarism. You deserve to be punished, for this is your destiny.” “They are, all of them, born with raging fanaticism in their hearts, just as the Bretons and the Germans are born with blond hair. I would not be in the least bit surprised if these people would not some day become deadly to the human race.”

    They also have long running whacko schemes that most people would think are too stupid to ever pull off and that no one in their right mind would try.

    This is because Kant’s two categorical imperatives are not considered universal by Jews.

    Read More
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  74. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.
     
    1. Stop obvious BS. Israeli DO NOT "violate" those air defense, since they do not attack (and they can't) ANY Russian targets which those air defenses are there to protect. Israel attacks SAA's targets. See the difference? Russia is not, at this stage, in the state of war with Israel, which would open legal and operational framework for shooting down Israel's AF assets.

    2. Should Israel have had such an intention and attack Russian targets--we would be living in a very different world today. Russians do not take lightly attacks on their targets and the case of USS Liberty is impossible. The "argument" of Su-24 shot down by Turkish AF is not applicable here. Why, is a separate issue. Israel knows it and is also in a full hysteria mode as I type it and it is precisely because should the push comes to shove IDF's "plans" on Syria will not work anymore. Especially, since Russian VKS MAY at some point of time get the order to impose real no-fly zone. This is not to speak of the fact that Israelis DO inform Russian forces in Syria on their plans.

    3. Do not conflate two very different issues. This is exactly what you did.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question
     
    Did you get the answer now or do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    You "exposed" absolutely nothing and there are many "simple civilians" even in this threat who have absolutely no difficulty in grasping key political, diplomatic and operational issues re: Russian forces in Syria.

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Art
    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    utu,

    With Israel, war is all about air defense – can Russia build up Syrian air defenses – would it take a year or more – can it even be done?

    On the other hand, Israel cannot change the situation on the ground with only air power.

    The bad guys are Wahhabist Saudi and Zionist Israel – they want war. The first is incompetent, the second wants others to do it.

    We the world, must tell them both to go to hell.

    We can do that!

    Think Peace ---- Art
    , @L.K
    You are being deliberately obtuse.

    Israel is tightly linked to its bitch, ZUSA. Russia, Syria and Iran all have to maneuver carefully.

    In the end, Israel's air strikes and support for the Nusra front and ISIS have failed to change the game.

    The war is slowly coming to an end, results FAR from what the Zio/zusa/Saudi coalition desired.
    In fact, they have lost the war.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.
     
    Wishful thinking.
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  75. Kiza says:
    @War for Blair Mountain
    Kiza

    A bloody Civil War in the 2017 version of America will be a bloody Race War......What could be more obvious?

    How about a score-settling war? IMHO all wars are about thieving and score settling, both. And it may not be in 2017, then in the next decade.

    Read More
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  76. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @SolontoCroesus
    Who is propping up the stock market? That's one of Trump's key selling points.

    Is he being held hostage by banksters who are managing that 'trillion $ bubble'?

    With baby boomers increasingly dependent on retirement savings/401ks, Trump's failure to comply with bankster demands could mean pulling the rug out of the stock market and plunging hundreds of thousands of retirees into penury.

    Banks themselves invest in the stock market. If the market plunges, so do their own investments. Nobody benefits from a plunging market except for people who are shorting the market.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Nobody benefits from a plunging market except for people who are shorting the market.
     
    Actually that's not true. Market corrections (plunges) are necessary for the whole system to function correctly. The weak and over-indebted should perish so that others might take their place and prosper. More importantly: the creditors must also burn when they fuck up.

    Unfortunately, this principle was completely thrown out of the window and, since the 2007/8 crash, the "markets" are as fake as a 3 dollar bill. Endless fiat is being pumped at the top in order to keep the ponzi going but the law of diminishing returns is getting ugly. Investors know the score but they're playing along just to kick the can one more time. Eventually, this will blow up and when it does it'll be biblical (old testament).
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  77. nsa says:
    @Miro23

    Never thought I would live to see the U.S. act as Israel's mercenary, but here it is.
     
    It's even worse - mercenaries get paid. US "mercenaries" have to pay their own bills, along with being called Deplorables.

    The despised Deplorables morphed into beloved Deployables in service of the maniacal Jooies. “Thank you for your service”…..suckers.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    The despised Deplorables morphed into beloved Deployables
     
    This is really good. Literature wise. I need to steal it;-)
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  78. An attack on Iran would probably result in the oil supplies through the Persian Gulf being blocked.

    That wouldn’t just affect the ability of westerners to drive. Their holidays would be wrecked, industry would go on short time, food supplies would be disrupted. We live in a very complex world with most businesses reliant on just-in-time delivery. This is not 1917 or 1940.

    Read More
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  79. Art says:
    @utu
    The bottom line is that Russia can't impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia's allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    utu,

    With Israel, war is all about air defense – can Russia build up Syrian air defenses – would it take a year or more – can it even be done?

    On the other hand, Israel cannot change the situation on the ground with only air power.

    The bad guys are Wahhabist Saudi and Zionist Israel – they want war. The first is incompetent, the second wants others to do it.

    We the world, must tell them both to go to hell.

    We can do that!

    Think Peace —- Art

    Read More
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  80. @SolontoCroesus
    Another piece of outstanding journalism by Gareth Porter

    Israel’s Ploy Selling a Syrian Nuke Strike
    November 18, 2017
    https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/18/israels-ploy-selling-a-syrian-nuke-strike/

    In September 2007, Israeli warplanes bombed a building in eastern Syria that the Israelis claimed held a covert nuclear reactor that had been built with North Korean assistance. . . .

    But nothing about that alleged reactor in the Syrian desert turns out to be what it appeared at the time. The evidence now available shows that there was no such nuclear reactor, and that the Israelis had misled George W. Bush’s administration into believing that it was in order to draw the United States into bombing missile storage sites in Syria. Other evidence now suggests, moreover, that the Syrian government had led the Israelis to believe wrongly that it was a key storage site for Hezbollah missiles and rockets.
     

    That is quite an exposé! I am not finding this story anywhere in the MSM…

    Read More
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  81. L.K says:
    @utu
    The bottom line is that Russia can't impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia's allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    You are being deliberately obtuse.

    Israel is tightly linked to its bitch, ZUSA. Russia, Syria and Iran all have to maneuver carefully.

    In the end, Israel’s air strikes and support for the Nusra front and ISIS have failed to change the game.

    The war is slowly coming to an end, results FAR from what the Zio/zusa/Saudi coalition desired.
    In fact, they have lost the war.

    Read More
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  82. Mikel says:
    @peterAUS

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question (posed several times on this website) and that the only ones who volunteer to answer it see it as some sort of provocation leads me to think that the stated supremacy is as dubious as it looks (at least in the airspace sphere).
     
    Well...the answer is simple.

    They have an agenda to sell here and the most of posters here are on the same page: West bad/weak/stupid Russia good/strong/wise.
    Adjust the reality around that.

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    How is easy.
    In exactly the same way people wanting to believe in something explain things.

    Pick up certain facts, omit the rest.
    Keep hammering the message.
    If that fails call the doubter names.
    Rinse and repeat.

    You won't find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places, analyze and think for yourself and then you'd be close enough.

    As for those Israeli incursions, my take is: they are not about capability of weapons; they are about politics.

    You won’t find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places,…

    Fear not about that. The funny thing is that in the past few days I’ve been accused of being a “Kremlin-troll” several times in other websites that I also frequent.

    Trying to get an approximate picture of where reality lies is indeed challenging but I think that I learnt that well during my five years at University. Nothing new. While these gentlemen’s agenda shines through, I think that they sincerely believe what they say so that should give some scope for debate and discussion if one engages them with specific questions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS

    The funny thing is that in the past few days I’ve been accused of being a “Kremlin-troll” several times in other websites that I also frequent.
     
    Well...that usually means one is doing well.

    While these gentlemen’s agenda shines through, I think that they sincerely believe what they say so that should give some scope for debate and discussion if one engages them with specific questions.
     
    Sometimes it does.
    Not often though.
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  83. Mikel says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    However, this is not preventing the Israelis from violating those air defenses on a constant basis and attacking from the air the very capital of Syria, as admitted by the Syrians themselves.
     
    1. Stop obvious BS. Israeli DO NOT "violate" those air defense, since they do not attack (and they can't) ANY Russian targets which those air defenses are there to protect. Israel attacks SAA's targets. See the difference? Russia is not, at this stage, in the state of war with Israel, which would open legal and operational framework for shooting down Israel's AF assets.

    2. Should Israel have had such an intention and attack Russian targets--we would be living in a very different world today. Russians do not take lightly attacks on their targets and the case of USS Liberty is impossible. The "argument" of Su-24 shot down by Turkish AF is not applicable here. Why, is a separate issue. Israel knows it and is also in a full hysteria mode as I type it and it is precisely because should the push comes to shove IDF's "plans" on Syria will not work anymore. Especially, since Russian VKS MAY at some point of time get the order to impose real no-fly zone. This is not to speak of the fact that Israelis DO inform Russian forces in Syria on their plans.

    3. Do not conflate two very different issues. This is exactly what you did.

    The facts that I never get an answer to this question
     
    Did you get the answer now or do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Look, I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed.
     
    You "exposed" absolutely nothing and there are many "simple civilians" even in this threat who have absolutely no difficulty in grasping key political, diplomatic and operational issues re: Russian forces in Syria.

    do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?

    Well, it’s not a problem of answering my question “even more in depth”. It’s a question of answering it with at least somedepth, if possible.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated “in one single network” but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    That is possible. But a dispassionate observer should also contemplate the alternative hypothesis that, in fact, that Russian superiority might not really exist. After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets. After each of the first three incidents that I just listed, Russian officials warned that measures would be taken to prevent them from happening again but nothing much seems to have happened.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures. But, given their technological superiority, if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I’m concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    { After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), }

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?

    Technology played no part in this particular shootdown.
    As part of the agreement with NATO, Russia had informed NATO of Tu-22s route and timeline of its bombing run inside Syrian airspace. Turkish AF F-16s were lying in wait, knew where and when the Tu-22 would be, and shot down the un-escorted, undefended Tu-22, a 1960s vintage bomber.
    So what technology are you talking about?


    As to why it was done, and why Russia chose not to attack Turkish targets in retaliation, is a different discussion. But, you can see a glimpse Kremlin's thinking if you are following world news, i.e. Turkey trying to buy Russian S-400s systems in defiance of NATO/US. Turkey is looking to leave NATO, and Moscow is doing its best to help the process. If Turkey leaves NATO, it will be a major strategic coup for Moscow. Well worth the loss of a Tu-22 and a small number of Russian military personnel.

    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated “in one single network” but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.
     
    Syria has at its disposal some number of Pantsyr AD systems. Those systems are equipped with necessary links (what would be called in the West CEC--cooperative engagement capability) to receive Targeting Data (Bearing (Azimuth), Range, Elevation and target's maneuvering elements) from other sources. In this sense they are integrated. Saker is not wrong here. In the end, if to assume the situation with Israeli F-35 and ancient Soviet S-220 Vega even partially true, it merely adds to a well known fact of ability to track and develop firing solution by Soviet/Russian complexes against any so called "Stealth" targets. In terms of Air Defense complexes, which, in the end, is the ability to generate random multi-diapason signal and ability to process large arrays of data (you know--a shitload of Fourier Transformations and all that naughty signal processing crap) Russians are global leaders. Recall that Zaslon on first MiG-31s was the world's first phased electronically scanned radar, as a simple example out of very many. All modern Russian detection systems (and some older ones) "see" those targets just fine. "Stealth", which is euphemism for reduction of the physical field of aircraft in radio-diapason is a marketing meme designed for the consumption of people far removed from military. The time is up for all this boastful BS. Once radiophotonics comes on-line (and it is coming soon) all this talk about "Stealth" will be relegated to forums of military fanboys.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures.
     
    Again, we don't know HOW Syrian S-200 received targeting data, it might have been through own system or, turn your own imagination on. If it was through OWN systems--the news for F-35 are horrible (they are horrible one way or another, anyway) and merely confirm what is already known in professional environment--American military technologies are, simply, not that good.


    if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I’m concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.
     
    No, it is you who talks a complete BS and ignorant nonsense and I sense a lot of butt-hurt, which is not unusual on these discussion boards.
    , @Thirdeye

    .....American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport....
     
    You might want to check on how effective that attack was, and why. The performance of the cruise missiles was a really cold shower for the Americans, explained away to Seymour Hersh as from "smoke" as if they were optically targeted.
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  84. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel

    You won’t find truth here, just some fragments of it.
    Try to visit other forums, Internet places,...
     
    Fear not about that. The funny thing is that in the past few days I've been accused of being a "Kremlin-troll" several times in other websites that I also frequent.

    Trying to get an approximate picture of where reality lies is indeed challenging but I think that I learnt that well during my five years at University. Nothing new. While these gentlemen's agenda shines through, I think that they sincerely believe what they say so that should give some scope for debate and discussion if one engages them with specific questions.

    The funny thing is that in the past few days I’ve been accused of being a “Kremlin-troll” several times in other websites that I also frequent.

    Well…that usually means one is doing well.

    While these gentlemen’s agenda shines through, I think that they sincerely believe what they say so that should give some scope for debate and discussion if one engages them with specific questions.

    Sometimes it does.
    Not often though.

    Read More
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  85. Frenck says:

    Okay….why is Britain offering to pay back money owed to Iran from the Shahs interrupted tank deal…..hundreds of millions.
    The pathetic reason given is to get an Iranian British prisoner released.
    Wayne Madsen reckons that the Saudi leadership is composed of crypto Jews….and it is not beyond the possibility that the Iranians are also led by the same.
    Many people have suggested Putin is a Jew….his foreign minister,Lavrov sure as hell IS.
    If Jews can infiltrate Western govts ….most of whom are crypto Jews….like John Kerry,Mad Dog the General ,AND TRUMP HIMSELF….then they can do the same to the aforementioned countries.
    Infact ANY article which suggests Trump is not part of the Jews matrix of power is automatically suspect….his son in law is a full blown supporter of Israel….for crying out loud!!.
    Trump is a crypto Jew…..and so is the former KGB leader Putin…..The final part of the jigsaw is whether or not the Jews have installed their tribesmen in the Middle eastern countries.
    One thing is for sure….crypto Jews like Merkel,Macron and May are destroying Europe via mass alien third world Immigration….Does any reasonable person believe that the Saudis were able to build a giant mosque right in the centre of London WITHOUT being given the go ahead by the Jewish banking cabal.

    Read More
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  86. “Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets.”

    Is that your definition of success?

    Read More
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  87. Avery says:
    @Mikel

    do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?
     
    Well, it's not a problem of answering my question "even more in depth". It's a question of answering it with at least somedepth, if possible.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated "in one single network" but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    That is possible. But a dispassionate observer should also contemplate the alternative hypothesis that, in fact, that Russian superiority might not really exist. After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets. After each of the first three incidents that I just listed, Russian officials warned that measures would be taken to prevent them from happening again but nothing much seems to have happened.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures. But, given their technological superiority, if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I'm concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.

    { After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), }

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?

    Technology played no part in this particular shootdown.
    As part of the agreement with NATO, Russia had informed NATO of Tu-22s route and timeline of its bombing run inside Syrian airspace. Turkish AF F-16s were lying in wait, knew where and when the Tu-22 would be, and shot down the un-escorted, undefended Tu-22, a 1960s vintage bomber.
    So what technology are you talking about?

    As to why it was done, and why Russia chose not to attack Turkish targets in retaliation, is a different discussion. But, you can see a glimpse Kremlin’s thinking if you are following world news, i.e. Turkey trying to buy Russian S-400s systems in defiance of NATO/US. Turkey is looking to leave NATO, and Moscow is doing its best to help the process. If Turkey leaves NATO, it will be a major strategic coup for Moscow. Well worth the loss of a Tu-22 and a small number of Russian military personnel.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johnny Rico

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?
     
    It was an SU-24, which is a 1970s vintage ground-attack.

    You are right, though. A Tu-22 doesn't need technology to shoot it down.

    https://theaviationist.com/2017/09/15/russian-air-force-tu-22m-backfire-damaged-in-runway-overrun-accident-during-zapad-2017-exercise-in-western-russia/
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  88. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Iran doesn’t need any nukes ( even having them is immoral ) all they need are missiles that can reach Dimona and then Talmudia goes “poof”…and that shitty little Satanic Rothschild Crime Syndicate Hide-Out masquerading as a country is GONE…Hamdella! Thanks be to God!

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  89. Erebus says:

    Israel, Saudi Arabia Setting Preconditions for War with Hezbollah

    I think something completely different is going on. Global alignments are changing fast, and MENA is currently at the focal point. Every player there is looking at a radically different deck of cards than the one in play just 3 years ago, and radically different players. Confusions reign, both internal and between nations. Events will move along a sum vector which is itself a sum of the various vectors their respective internal elite factions are pulling. Internal policy and power struggles will surface, and there will be lots of false signals. I think war with Iran/Hezbollah is one of them.

    In such conditions, we can expect a lot of noise and very little signal, but the trajectories are coming clear. The over-riding trajectory of course is the ongoing fall of Pax Americana, and its replacement by a Pax Multiplicita. Nobody really knows what the latter will look like, and so nations and their elite factions will be trying everything to jockey themselves into an advantageous position both internally and externally. We see this process everywhere, including in the USA itself as well as Europe and Asia.

    The resurrection of Syria and Iraq, under the wings of Russia and Iran, has shocked MENA. Things ain’t what they used to be, and there’s no going back. The KSA, as both the linchpin of Pax Americana’s dollar system, and as the least socially developed country in MENA faces the greatest challenges in adapting itself to whatever is coming next. Its demographics are a powder keg, with more than 50% of the disenfranchised population <25 yrs of age and chaffing under a medieval death cult that has ruled for a century. It is now or never for the KSA. Change now, or societal chaos and a bloody collapse will be the KSA's contribution to Pax Multiplicita.

    I think the new Crown Prince understands that, and while still wet-behind-the-ears is determined to change it Now! He’s no Wahhabi, and he recognizes Wahhabism for the dead end it is. Last month, in a speech to an investment forum in Riyadh he declared:

    “We will return to the former state of affairs, to moderate Islam, which is open to the world, and all other religions. We will not wait for 30 years, we will swiftly deal a blow to extremist ideologies,”

    Let those words sink in. No Saudi, royal or otherwise, has dared to utter their equal.

    In the event, swift he was.
    He drained the Saudi swamp in a (fort)night of the long knives, reportedly incarcerating 2400+ elites, including some of the wealthiest and most powerful, 1000 Imams and 30+ Generals. That alone is a remarkable fact, showing he has shrewdly developed a like-thinking power base under the noses of the KSA’s Pax Americana sycophants and fanatical Wahhabis. This is not a man to be trifled with.

    By way of international support, the old King made what amounted to pilgrimages to Beijing and then to Moscow to seek their blessing (inter alia). In Beijing he got $120B+ in commitments for development projects, in Moscow he got cooperation in oil markets and (crucially) S-400 Air Defense systems. After his “palace coup” he got words of support, with Xi Jingping being particularly warmly supportive.
    Yes he’s young, inexperienced, and has had to fight internal battles we’ll never know about which no doubt contributed to some of his apparent international blunders, but to think that he will now willingly opt for war with a Moscow ally is to think him either mad, or an imbecile. I don’t think he’s either. He’s delivering Trumpian campaign promises to the KSA (to the wild approval of the country’s youth) and quite probably suckering the Israelis into a stupid move while at it.

    Watch that space. It’s cooking.

    Read More
    • Replies: @survey-of-disinfo
    Just imagine what songs Bandar Bush is singing in "the Ritz" these days. Want to sue Saudi Arabia for money because of 9/11? No problem, judge. Here are the names, here are the numbers, and here are the facts.

    Disagree regarding multipolar order. The super structures for Globalism are untouched in all this theatrical displays. All parties seem to participate actively in key Globalist institutions.

    Petrodollar is not and was never a component of NWO. It was an instrument of American supremacy. There are no planned superpowers in the NWO vision. Only Super-Institutions.
    , @Thirdeye
    The term "Pax Americana" seems ironic because of the lack of Pax in the post Cold War era of America pushing the limits of its power projection. Maybe a better term would be "Bellus Americana."
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  90. @Erebus

    Israel, Saudi Arabia Setting Preconditions for War with Hezbollah
     
    I think something completely different is going on. Global alignments are changing fast, and MENA is currently at the focal point. Every player there is looking at a radically different deck of cards than the one in play just 3 years ago, and radically different players. Confusions reign, both internal and between nations. Events will move along a sum vector which is itself a sum of the various vectors their respective internal elite factions are pulling. Internal policy and power struggles will surface, and there will be lots of false signals. I think war with Iran/Hezbollah is one of them.

    In such conditions, we can expect a lot of noise and very little signal, but the trajectories are coming clear. The over-riding trajectory of course is the ongoing fall of Pax Americana, and its replacement by a Pax Multiplicita. Nobody really knows what the latter will look like, and so nations and their elite factions will be trying everything to jockey themselves into an advantageous position both internally and externally. We see this process everywhere, including in the USA itself as well as Europe and Asia.

    The resurrection of Syria and Iraq, under the wings of Russia and Iran, has shocked MENA. Things ain't what they used to be, and there's no going back. The KSA, as both the linchpin of Pax Americana's dollar system, and as the least socially developed country in MENA faces the greatest challenges in adapting itself to whatever is coming next. Its demographics are a powder keg, with more than 50% of the disenfranchised population <25 yrs of age and chaffing under a medieval death cult that has ruled for a century. It is now or never for the KSA. Change now, or societal chaos and a bloody collapse will be the KSA's contribution to Pax Multiplicita.

    I think the new Crown Prince understands that, and while still wet-behind-the-ears is determined to change it Now! He's no Wahhabi, and he recognizes Wahhabism for the dead end it is. Last month, in a speech to an investment forum in Riyadh he declared:

    "We will return to the former state of affairs, to moderate Islam, which is open to the world, and all other religions. We will not wait for 30 years, we will swiftly deal a blow to extremist ideologies,"
     
    Let those words sink in. No Saudi, royal or otherwise, has dared to utter their equal.

    In the event, swift he was.
    He drained the Saudi swamp in a (fort)night of the long knives, reportedly incarcerating 2400+ elites, including some of the wealthiest and most powerful, 1000 Imams and 30+ Generals. That alone is a remarkable fact, showing he has shrewdly developed a like-thinking power base under the noses of the KSA's Pax Americana sycophants and fanatical Wahhabis. This is not a man to be trifled with.

    By way of international support, the old King made what amounted to pilgrimages to Beijing and then to Moscow to seek their blessing (inter alia). In Beijing he got $120B+ in commitments for development projects, in Moscow he got cooperation in oil markets and (crucially) S-400 Air Defense systems. After his “palace coup” he got words of support, with Xi Jingping being particularly warmly supportive.
    Yes he's young, inexperienced, and has had to fight internal battles we'll never know about which no doubt contributed to some of his apparent international blunders, but to think that he will now willingly opt for war with a Moscow ally is to think him either mad, or an imbecile. I don't think he's either. He's delivering Trumpian campaign promises to the KSA (to the wild approval of the country's youth) and quite probably suckering the Israelis into a stupid move while at it.

    Watch that space. It's cooking.

    Just imagine what songs Bandar Bush is singing in “the Ritz” these days. Want to sue Saudi Arabia for money because of 9/11? No problem, judge. Here are the names, here are the numbers, and here are the facts.

    Disagree regarding multipolar order. The super structures for Globalism are untouched in all this theatrical displays. All parties seem to participate actively in key Globalist institutions.

    Petrodollar is not and was never a component of NWO. It was an instrument of American supremacy. There are no planned superpowers in the NWO vision. Only Super-Institutions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erebus

    Disagree regarding multipolar order. The super structures for Globalism are untouched in all this theatrical displays.
     
    Untouched? No.
    Altered to suit new security structures and players? Yes.

    The latter will take a decade or two to sort out fully, but they're already changing.
    Look, Globalism is here to stay unless a Yellowstone or nuke war goes off. The question being answered underneath these "theatrical displays" is who will run it. Up until recently, it was the US who had alone chaired those super-structures/institutions deciding trade, military, financial relations between nations. That is what Pax Americana means.

    Russia & China, supported by a few "rogue nations", are challenging the US' chairmanship. They want [a] a Chair shared between the 3 (or 4, if the EU can get itself together) big players, with [b] a lot more voice for both the other board members and for the shareholders (small nations). That is what "Multipolar Order" means. They're getting more & more nations to go "rogue" and support their demands. When they get enough shareholders on board, a boardroom coup will ensue.

    They made a tremendous leap forward in MENA in the last 2 years and are on the brink of cutting that critical energy source loose from Pax Americana. When/if that happens, America's chairmanship goes very wobbly indeed. Pax Americana's linchpin is the Petro-Dollar, and the Petro-Dollar's linchpin is KSA. 70% of the world's energy sources would then fall under the Multipolar Order's control. Utterly dependent on those sources, Asia & Europe will be the next dominoes to fall, and then Pax Americana disappears.

    The terrifying question is whether the US will resign its Chair gracefully and sit amongst equals, or will it go for broke. The American nation decided for the former in the last election. A large faction of US elites disagreed, and want to go for broke. The nonsense flung back and forth between the two factions is just the part of the global theatrical displays that exercises the American public. The international parts entertain the rest of us (though I indulge myself with plenty of giggles at the US soap opera).
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  91. @utu
    The bottom line is that Russia can't impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia's allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    Wishful thinking.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu


    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.
     
    Wishful thinking.
     
    I have just stated a fact. You are projecting. It is your reality that is a wishful thinking. Hence your reality is vulnerable to facts.
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  92. @Mikel

    do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?
     
    Well, it's not a problem of answering my question "even more in depth". It's a question of answering it with at least somedepth, if possible.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated "in one single network" but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    That is possible. But a dispassionate observer should also contemplate the alternative hypothesis that, in fact, that Russian superiority might not really exist. After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets. After each of the first three incidents that I just listed, Russian officials warned that measures would be taken to prevent them from happening again but nothing much seems to have happened.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures. But, given their technological superiority, if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I'm concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated “in one single network” but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    Syria has at its disposal some number of Pantsyr AD systems. Those systems are equipped with necessary links (what would be called in the West CEC–cooperative engagement capability) to receive Targeting Data (Bearing (Azimuth), Range, Elevation and target’s maneuvering elements) from other sources. In this sense they are integrated. Saker is not wrong here. In the end, if to assume the situation with Israeli F-35 and ancient Soviet S-220 Vega even partially true, it merely adds to a well known fact of ability to track and develop firing solution by Soviet/Russian complexes against any so called “Stealth” targets. In terms of Air Defense complexes, which, in the end, is the ability to generate random multi-diapason signal and ability to process large arrays of data (you know–a shitload of Fourier Transformations and all that naughty signal processing crap) Russians are global leaders. Recall that Zaslon on first MiG-31s was the world’s first phased electronically scanned radar, as a simple example out of very many. All modern Russian detection systems (and some older ones) “see” those targets just fine. “Stealth”, which is euphemism for reduction of the physical field of aircraft in radio-diapason is a marketing meme designed for the consumption of people far removed from military. The time is up for all this boastful BS. Once radiophotonics comes on-line (and it is coming soon) all this talk about “Stealth” will be relegated to forums of military fanboys.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures.

    Again, we don’t know HOW Syrian S-200 received targeting data, it might have been through own system or, turn your own imagination on. If it was through OWN systems–the news for F-35 are horrible (they are horrible one way or another, anyway) and merely confirm what is already known in professional environment–American military technologies are, simply, not that good.

    if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I’m concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.

    No, it is you who talks a complete BS and ignorant nonsense and I sense a lot of butt-hurt, which is not unusual on these discussion boards.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel
    Andrei,

    The way international politics stand right now, I wouldn't mind the Russians taking the technological lead and forcing the West to stop their silly interventionist activities around the world. In fact, I am still open to the possibility that Russia is making all those big technological advances one hears about.

    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of "horrible news" for the Israeli air technology (??).

    Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,...). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.

    That you take a question to one of your assertions like an attack to your country probably reveals some problem of a personal/psychological nature. But I'm also beginning to doubt how good those Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations. I mean, Sam J. above has made a much more convincing case of the probable situation without using any obfuscating jargon or counterproductive personal attacks.
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  93. @anony-mouse
    Yawn

    From 2007:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/bushs-war-heating-up-attack-on-iran-imminent/?highlight=israel+iran

    Constantly making the same predictions over and over again won't make them any more accurate. There's even basically the same article on this website right now by Petras.

    Practically nothing by way of conditions exists today compared to ten years ago, are you on drugs?

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  94. 200 nukes won’t even bother Iran. Meanwhile they have enough conventional ordnance to plow “Israel” end for end and sideways. The IDF has been officially described (US military circles) as undisciplined rabble and they’re known for their unprofessionalism and incompetence as well as cowardice.

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  95. Oh no fun for hasbarats and trolls in this site. Lovely to read comments,

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  96. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    I like this analysis but not the counter-plan. Yes, the Western MSM and the (((deep state))) infecting the US will try their best to push for escalation (by way of deception thou shalt do war) but that's happening no matter what. Giving up certain responses and strategies in fear of "what will MSM say" might be a fool's errand. There's a real danger of being too passive and bleeding out from a thousand cuts.

    Agree.
    Americans in Syria: https://www.globalresearch.ca/secretary-mattis-is-off-base-us-military-presence-in-syria-has-no-legal-grounds/5618997
    “The establishment of the US base near the Syria-Jordan border [in the area of the Syrian town of al-Tanf] was publicly justified by the need to conduct operations against Islamic State. However, no information has been received about any US operations against the group conducted from this area. To the contrary, IS has been reported to operate freely in an area abutting the [US] base. … On and off, militant groups supposedly trained by Americans in the area strike Syria government forces. The more US forces are in-theater in Syria, the greater the chance of conflict between them and Syrian troops.”

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  97. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Mikel

    These are not 1960s or 1973. Things are different today.
     
    How are things different today? Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space defended with Russian technology and bomb targets around the capital Damascus pretty much at will.

    “…Israel continues to penetrate the Syrian air space…”
    Thanks for reminding about the criminal actions by the apartheid Jewish State.
    Do they still teach Nuremberg Protocols at Israeli schools or a comparison with the Nazi Lebensraum has become too obvious?

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  98. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @anonymous

    But their plan is, I think, much cruder: to trigger a serious conflict and then force the US to intervene.
     
    It could be the reverse, that it's the US that is orchestrating them to create a situation that the US can then claim a necessity to intervene. The continuity of US policy persists no matter what party is in power. The US has been implacably hostile to the Iranian regime since the Shah was toppled and has tried everything including supporting Saddam Hussein's invasion back in the early days of the Iranian revolution. Now with the failure of the Syrian project there may be an idea afoot to double down in a now-or-never roll of the dice. We'll have to see what happens. The internal politics of Saudi Arabia are rather opaque so what this internal power struggle is really about is hard to guess at particularly with the sort of media we have. It's interesting how the Saudi Arabian-Israeli alliance has become less covert these days and is now quite open.

    “It’s interesting how the Saudi Arabian-Israeli alliance has become less covert these days and is now quite open.”
    Two theocracies have found each other

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  99. @Avery
    { After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), }

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?

    Technology played no part in this particular shootdown.
    As part of the agreement with NATO, Russia had informed NATO of Tu-22s route and timeline of its bombing run inside Syrian airspace. Turkish AF F-16s were lying in wait, knew where and when the Tu-22 would be, and shot down the un-escorted, undefended Tu-22, a 1960s vintage bomber.
    So what technology are you talking about?


    As to why it was done, and why Russia chose not to attack Turkish targets in retaliation, is a different discussion. But, you can see a glimpse Kremlin's thinking if you are following world news, i.e. Turkey trying to buy Russian S-400s systems in defiance of NATO/US. Turkey is looking to leave NATO, and Moscow is doing its best to help the process. If Turkey leaves NATO, it will be a major strategic coup for Moscow. Well worth the loss of a Tu-22 and a small number of Russian military personnel.

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?

    It was an SU-24, which is a 1970s vintage ground-attack.

    You are right, though. A Tu-22 doesn’t need technology to shoot it down.

    https://theaviationist.com/2017/09/15/russian-air-force-tu-22m-backfire-damaged-in-runway-overrun-accident-during-zapad-2017-exercise-in-western-russia/

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    • Replies: @Avery
    {...It was an SU-24,..}

    Thanks for spotting my mistake: I stand corrected.


    {A Tu-22 doesn’t need technology to shoot it down.}


    Indeed:

    Apparently neither does US's latest and greatest: doesn't need technology to shoot it down either*: it goes straight down into the ground all my itself.

    [At 3:30 local time on Thursday an F-22, apparently belonging to the 325th Wing, a training unit based at Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida panhandle, plunged into the ground in a wooded area inside the base perimeter near Highway 98, sparking a small fire.] (11/16/2012)

    Over to you.
    You come up with one from Russia, I'll come up with one from US.
    We can keep going as long as you like and as long as UNZ.com moderators allow it.

    Later.
    ______________
    * [ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER $678 MILLION STEALTH JET WRECKED]
    https://www.wired.com/2012/11/f-22-crashe/

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  100. Avery says:
    @Johnny Rico

    One Russian jet, a Tu-22, was hot down by F-16s of Turkish AF.
    So why are you making things up?
     
    It was an SU-24, which is a 1970s vintage ground-attack.

    You are right, though. A Tu-22 doesn't need technology to shoot it down.

    https://theaviationist.com/2017/09/15/russian-air-force-tu-22m-backfire-damaged-in-runway-overrun-accident-during-zapad-2017-exercise-in-western-russia/

    {…It was an SU-24,..}

    Thanks for spotting my mistake: I stand corrected.

    {A Tu-22 doesn’t need technology to shoot it down.}

    Indeed:

    Apparently neither does US’s latest and greatest: doesn’t need technology to shoot it down either*: it goes straight down into the ground all my itself.

    [At 3:30 local time on Thursday an F-22, apparently belonging to the 325th Wing, a training unit based at Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida panhandle, plunged into the ground in a wooded area inside the base perimeter near Highway 98, sparking a small fire.] (11/16/2012)

    Over to you.
    You come up with one from Russia, I’ll come up with one from US.
    We can keep going as long as you like and as long as UNZ.com moderators allow it.

    Later.
    ______________
    * [ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER $678 MILLION STEALTH JET WRECKED]

    https://www.wired.com/2012/11/f-22-crashe/

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  101. Dorsee says:

    I agree with most of this article, but one must look at the forces behind Israel and Saudi Arabia to really understand the political dynamics of these problem countries. And, one has to look no further than Britain. It was Britain that created both of these countries in the first place through innumerable acts of treachery and secrecy. At the center of this treachery is the British Roundtable, an Illuminati organization set up by Cecil Rhodes, managed by Nathaniel Rothschild, and endorsed by the Queen of England.
    Besides creating the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Federal Reserve Bank, this Roundtable negotiated the infamous Balfour Declaration that led to both the creation of Israel and the U.S. entry into World War I, as documented in “The Secret History of the New World Order”. During this war the British promised the head of Mecca an independent Arabia if they would revolt against the Ottoman Turks which they did. But after the war, the British split up Arabia along the Sikes Picot agreement which the head of Mecca would not accept. So the British merely raised an army to throw the head of Mecca out of power and had him replaced with the former dessert bandits, the house of Saud, renaming that portion of Arabia, Saudi Arabia.
    The Illuminati also controls the Freemasons and every Prime Minister of Israel has been a high level Freemason. And as every true historian knows, the Illuminati was created by the Jesuits, three years after they had been outlawed by the Pope in 1773.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yep. A lot of people find it difficult to believe but the West has been corrupted by a multitude of "secret", supranational organizations with the Tribe at the centre of the rot. Most of the misery in the World is caused by "mistakes" that only start making sense when you zoom out and look at the big picture. It's like a badly choreographed ballet performance with ugly people.
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  102. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anon
    Banks themselves invest in the stock market. If the market plunges, so do their own investments. Nobody benefits from a plunging market except for people who are shorting the market.

    Nobody benefits from a plunging market except for people who are shorting the market.

    Actually that’s not true. Market corrections (plunges) are necessary for the whole system to function correctly. The weak and over-indebted should perish so that others might take their place and prosper. More importantly: the creditors must also burn when they fuck up.

    Unfortunately, this principle was completely thrown out of the window and, since the 2007/8 crash, the “markets” are as fake as a 3 dollar bill. Endless fiat is being pumped at the top in order to keep the ponzi going but the law of diminishing returns is getting ugly. Investors know the score but they’re playing along just to kick the can one more time. Eventually, this will blow up and when it does it’ll be biblical (old testament).

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  103. Thirdeye says:
    @Cloak And Dagger

    Israeli military prowess and invincibility is a 100% Hollywood fable
     
    I agree with your assessment. Armies are hardened in combat under battle conditions against equal or more powerful adversaries. In recent years, Hezbollah and the Syrian army have become hardened and formidable as an unintended consequence of US/Israeli mischief in Syria under the auspices of CIA/Mossad-created ISIS, and CIA-created Al Qaeda with its many facets and pseudonyms. Iran has been training continuously for the imminent attack by US and Zionist forces, and prevailed in the Iraq-Iran war of 1988, instigated by the US. Today, Iraq and Iran are on their way to becoming a unified alliance against zionist and imperialistic forces. The "Shia Crescent" is now a force worthy of awe and admiration.

    Meanwhile, the much vaunted IDF has been battle-hardened (ha!) in combat with stone-throwing children and unarmed Palestinian farmers, with hi-tech expensive anti-missile defenses being used to bring down home made firecrackers from Hamas. As you point out, in 2006, just Hezbollah alone, without the aid of todays new found allies in Syria and Iraq (and of course, Iran), was able to rout both aerial and ground attacks by Israel and beat them back to run with their tails between their legs. 49 of Israel's Merkava tanks (self-declared God's Chariot) were left as smoldering metal in that action, demolished by hand-held anti-tank missiles.

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon. I doubt that they will succeed this time. I think Netanyahu's precarious position with criminal indictments forthcoming will cause him to do something stupid like attacking Lebanon. This will prove to be a bridge too far.

    We may be seeing the early stages of the destruction of Israel. They may not have 5 years left, certainly not 10. An unverified CIA memo informed former US President Bill Clinton that Israel would not exist beyond the year 2022. That is just 5 years away, and the ducks seem to be lining up in a row, regardless of whether such a memo was ever sent.

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon.

    I’m having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack – an extremely risky move for Israel. Whatever co-ordinated plans Israel and the Saudis develop are most likely predicated on drawing Iran into full-scale defense of the Shia crescent in Iraq and maybe Syria, forcing the US in to protect the gulf oil trade and, while everyone is preoccupied, Israel attacking in Lebanon and western Syria. But Israel would be faced with some serious dilemmas if things don’t go as planned on the Saudi end, which seems likely from their performance in Yemen. And that’s not even considering the fact that Iran could shut down the Saudi oil trade in a matter of hours if they came into direct conflict. It seems that any Israeli-Saudi move without first obtaining commitment from the US would be foolhardy and the US would be equally foolhardy to make such a prior commitment. But as Frank Zappa said, never underestimate stupidity.

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    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    I’m having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack
     
    You are correct - with the changing facts on the ground like Turkey abandoning NATO imminently, and more importantly, Syrian victory over the empire-assisted ISIS has made this scenario implausible.

    Israel would love for the Saudis to attack Lebanon and lose there, but that is not going to happen unless MBS is completely insane. The Houthis in Yemen appear to be making their own missiles, and it is only a matter of time before Riyadh has to deal with a rainstorm from them, unless the Saudis can bring the war on Yemen to a speedy close - something I bet they desire to do without losing face.

    Meanwhile, attacking Lebanon would be a total disaster for the Saudis. The Hezbollah is now a battle-hardened force and far exceeds the might of the Saudis, despite their US weaponry. In fact, I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez. The IDF is still smarting from their thrashing from them in the 2006 war, and the the Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments. Here is a video commenting on how Hezbollah's victory was total:

    https://youtu.be/b7s5lnjXR5s

    The best laid plans of mice and men...

    Israel was counting on the decimation of the Shia crescent into scores of bantustans once Assad was deposed - but that didn't happen - and the Shia crescent is not only victorious but stronger than ever. I doubt that Iran will enter directly into combat with Israel and will act through Hezbollah, but Syria is expected to be very involved and will have its sights on the Golan Heights.

    I think Israel would be crazy to attack Lebanon. Currently they are targeting minor Syrian sites from Lebanese air space. The Hezbollah just announced that they are about to vacate Iraq now that ISIS has been defeated, and they will shortly vacate Syria. At that point, any Israeli aircraft over Lebanon will probably become a target. Were Israel to launch an offensive, it would quickly become an existential problem for that little country. Sanity would prevent them from attacking Lebanon themselves, and it it is highly unlikely that Trump will attack Lebanon either. If Lebanon is attacked by Israel, it will be because of desperation on the part of Netanyahu to distract from the criminal charges that are being brought against him. If he does that, he will take Israel down with him.

    Interesting times.
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  104. @George
    As long as the US has its posh base in Qatar, I have trouble believing the US will attack Iran. US ships, especially the huge aircraft carriers are sitting ducks in the tiny Persian Gulf. They are not there for strategic reasons, they are there for lifestyle reasons. I doubt Israel will attempt another war with Lebanon give the last one went very poorly.

    The next war would likely be with Lebanon. As near as I can tell Hezbollah has allies in every group except maybe the Sunni. I think the Sunni will ally with Hezbollah but who knows for sure.

    An indicator of imminent war would be the moving of the carriers out of the Persian gulf into the open seas.

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  105. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Committing fraud in the name of ziocons’ plans for destruction of Syria: https://consortiumnews.com/2017/11/19/how-syrian-nuke-evidence-was-faked/
    “How Syrian-Nuke Evidence Was Faked:”

    “… the IAEA report on Syria had remained silent on the crucial fact that none of the sample results had shown any trace of nuclear-grade graphite. Abushady recalled that when he challenged Heinonen on the absence of any mention of the nuclear graphite issue in the draft report in a Nov. 13, 2008 meeting, Heinonen said the inspectors had found evidence of graphite but added, “We haven’t confirmed that it was nuclear-grade.” Abushady retorted, “Do you know what nuclear-grade graphite is? If you found it you would know it immediately.”
    Heinonen was invited to comment on Abushady’s account of that meeting for this article but declined to do so.
    After learning that the report scheduled to be released in November would be silent on the absence of nuclear graphite, Abushady sent a letter to ElBaradei asking him not to release the report on Syria as it was currently written. Abushady protested the report’s presentation of the environmental sampling results, especially in regard to nuclear-grade graphite. “In my technical view,” Abushady wrote, “these results are the basis to confirm the contrary, that the site cannot [have been] actually a nuclear reactor.” But the report was published anyway, and a few days later, ElBaradei’s Special Assistant Graham Andrew responded to Abushady’s message by ordering him to “stop sending e-mails on this subject” and to “respect established lines of responsibility, management and communication.”

    The good-old-boy Heinonen was rewarded for his service to the ziocons’ agenda with a sinecure:
    “Heinonen, who was directly responsible for the IAEA’s role in the Syria cover-up, left the IAEA in August 2010 and within a month was given a position at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He has continued to take positions on the Iran nuclear negotiations that were indistinguishable from those of the Netanyahu government. And he is now senior adviser on science and non-proliferation at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a think tank whose positions on the Iran nuclear issues have closely followed those of the Likud governments in Israel.”
    Coward and fraudster.

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  106. Thirdeye says:
    @Erebus

    Israel, Saudi Arabia Setting Preconditions for War with Hezbollah
     
    I think something completely different is going on. Global alignments are changing fast, and MENA is currently at the focal point. Every player there is looking at a radically different deck of cards than the one in play just 3 years ago, and radically different players. Confusions reign, both internal and between nations. Events will move along a sum vector which is itself a sum of the various vectors their respective internal elite factions are pulling. Internal policy and power struggles will surface, and there will be lots of false signals. I think war with Iran/Hezbollah is one of them.

    In such conditions, we can expect a lot of noise and very little signal, but the trajectories are coming clear. The over-riding trajectory of course is the ongoing fall of Pax Americana, and its replacement by a Pax Multiplicita. Nobody really knows what the latter will look like, and so nations and their elite factions will be trying everything to jockey themselves into an advantageous position both internally and externally. We see this process everywhere, including in the USA itself as well as Europe and Asia.

    The resurrection of Syria and Iraq, under the wings of Russia and Iran, has shocked MENA. Things ain't what they used to be, and there's no going back. The KSA, as both the linchpin of Pax Americana's dollar system, and as the least socially developed country in MENA faces the greatest challenges in adapting itself to whatever is coming next. Its demographics are a powder keg, with more than 50% of the disenfranchised population <25 yrs of age and chaffing under a medieval death cult that has ruled for a century. It is now or never for the KSA. Change now, or societal chaos and a bloody collapse will be the KSA's contribution to Pax Multiplicita.

    I think the new Crown Prince understands that, and while still wet-behind-the-ears is determined to change it Now! He's no Wahhabi, and he recognizes Wahhabism for the dead end it is. Last month, in a speech to an investment forum in Riyadh he declared:

    "We will return to the former state of affairs, to moderate Islam, which is open to the world, and all other religions. We will not wait for 30 years, we will swiftly deal a blow to extremist ideologies,"
     
    Let those words sink in. No Saudi, royal or otherwise, has dared to utter their equal.

    In the event, swift he was.
    He drained the Saudi swamp in a (fort)night of the long knives, reportedly incarcerating 2400+ elites, including some of the wealthiest and most powerful, 1000 Imams and 30+ Generals. That alone is a remarkable fact, showing he has shrewdly developed a like-thinking power base under the noses of the KSA's Pax Americana sycophants and fanatical Wahhabis. This is not a man to be trifled with.

    By way of international support, the old King made what amounted to pilgrimages to Beijing and then to Moscow to seek their blessing (inter alia). In Beijing he got $120B+ in commitments for development projects, in Moscow he got cooperation in oil markets and (crucially) S-400 Air Defense systems. After his “palace coup” he got words of support, with Xi Jingping being particularly warmly supportive.
    Yes he's young, inexperienced, and has had to fight internal battles we'll never know about which no doubt contributed to some of his apparent international blunders, but to think that he will now willingly opt for war with a Moscow ally is to think him either mad, or an imbecile. I don't think he's either. He's delivering Trumpian campaign promises to the KSA (to the wild approval of the country's youth) and quite probably suckering the Israelis into a stupid move while at it.

    Watch that space. It's cooking.

    The term “Pax Americana” seems ironic because of the lack of Pax in the post Cold War era of America pushing the limits of its power projection. Maybe a better term would be “Bellus Americana.”

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  107. Random says:

    “Judaic ethics teach that all non-Jews are most likely deserving to die anyway”

    Whoever wrote that is an imbecile. The Hebrew word goyim is typically used to refer to non-Jews, but Abraham is described as the father of many goyim.

    As for me, behold, my covenant is with thee, and thou shalt be a father of many nations[goyim].
    Genesis 17:4

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  108. Thirdeye says:
    @Mikel

    do you need this issue to be explained even more in depth?
     
    Well, it's not a problem of answering my question "even more in depth". It's a question of answering it with at least somedepth, if possible.

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated "in one single network" but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.

    That is possible. But a dispassionate observer should also contemplate the alternative hypothesis that, in fact, that Russian superiority might not really exist. After all, Russian planes have been shot down (by Turkish planes produced with American technology), Syrian planes have suffered the same fate, American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport and, as discussed, Israel keeps successfully bombing Syrian targets. After each of the first three incidents that I just listed, Russian officials warned that measures would be taken to prevent them from happening again but nothing much seems to have happened.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures. But, given their technological superiority, if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I'm concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.

    …..American missiles have bombed a Syrian military airport….

    You might want to check on how effective that attack was, and why. The performance of the cruise missiles was a really cold shower for the Americans, explained away to Seymour Hersh as from “smoke” as if they were optically targeted.

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  109. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Dorsee
    I agree with most of this article, but one must look at the forces behind Israel and Saudi Arabia to really understand the political dynamics of these problem countries. And, one has to look no further than Britain. It was Britain that created both of these countries in the first place through innumerable acts of treachery and secrecy. At the center of this treachery is the British Roundtable, an Illuminati organization set up by Cecil Rhodes, managed by Nathaniel Rothschild, and endorsed by the Queen of England.
    Besides creating the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Federal Reserve Bank, this Roundtable negotiated the infamous Balfour Declaration that led to both the creation of Israel and the U.S. entry into World War I, as documented in "The Secret History of the New World Order". During this war the British promised the head of Mecca an independent Arabia if they would revolt against the Ottoman Turks which they did. But after the war, the British split up Arabia along the Sikes Picot agreement which the head of Mecca would not accept. So the British merely raised an army to throw the head of Mecca out of power and had him replaced with the former dessert bandits, the house of Saud, renaming that portion of Arabia, Saudi Arabia.
    The Illuminati also controls the Freemasons and every Prime Minister of Israel has been a high level Freemason. And as every true historian knows, the Illuminati was created by the Jesuits, three years after they had been outlawed by the Pope in 1773.

    Yep. A lot of people find it difficult to believe but the West has been corrupted by a multitude of “secret”, supranational organizations with the Tribe at the centre of the rot. Most of the misery in the World is caused by “mistakes” that only start making sense when you zoom out and look at the big picture. It’s like a badly choreographed ballet performance with ugly people.

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  110. Mikel says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Essentially, what you are saying is that Saker is wrong in claiming that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are integrated “in one single network” but he is still right in claiming the technological air superiority of Russia over the West.
     
    Syria has at its disposal some number of Pantsyr AD systems. Those systems are equipped with necessary links (what would be called in the West CEC--cooperative engagement capability) to receive Targeting Data (Bearing (Azimuth), Range, Elevation and target's maneuvering elements) from other sources. In this sense they are integrated. Saker is not wrong here. In the end, if to assume the situation with Israeli F-35 and ancient Soviet S-220 Vega even partially true, it merely adds to a well known fact of ability to track and develop firing solution by Soviet/Russian complexes against any so called "Stealth" targets. In terms of Air Defense complexes, which, in the end, is the ability to generate random multi-diapason signal and ability to process large arrays of data (you know--a shitload of Fourier Transformations and all that naughty signal processing crap) Russians are global leaders. Recall that Zaslon on first MiG-31s was the world's first phased electronically scanned radar, as a simple example out of very many. All modern Russian detection systems (and some older ones) "see" those targets just fine. "Stealth", which is euphemism for reduction of the physical field of aircraft in radio-diapason is a marketing meme designed for the consumption of people far removed from military. The time is up for all this boastful BS. Once radiophotonics comes on-line (and it is coming soon) all this talk about "Stealth" will be relegated to forums of military fanboys.

    Perhaps a convincing answer could go along the lines of saying that the Russian and Syrian air defenses are independent and not integrated, that the Russians have only provided such and such air defense systems to the Syrians due to such and such reasons and this allows the Israelis to defeat them taking such and such measures.
     
    Again, we don't know HOW Syrian S-200 received targeting data, it might have been through own system or, turn your own imagination on. If it was through OWN systems--the news for F-35 are horrible (they are horrible one way or another, anyway) and merely confirm what is already known in professional environment--American military technologies are, simply, not that good.


    if the Russians really wanted to prevent their allies from being constantly attacked from the air, they could do such an such. As far as I’m concerned, all the rest is, as you say, BS.
     
    No, it is you who talks a complete BS and ignorant nonsense and I sense a lot of butt-hurt, which is not unusual on these discussion boards.

    Andrei,

    The way international politics stand right now, I wouldn’t mind the Russians taking the technological lead and forcing the West to stop their silly interventionist activities around the world. In fact, I am still open to the possibility that Russia is making all those big technological advances one hears about.

    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of “horrible news” for the Israeli air technology (??).

    Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,…). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.

    That you take a question to one of your assertions like an attack to your country probably reveals some problem of a personal/psychological nature. But I’m also beginning to doubt how good those Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations. I mean, Sam J. above has made a much more convincing case of the probable situation without using any obfuscating jargon or counterproductive personal attacks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220
     
    This isn't even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?
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  111. @anony-mouse
    Yawn

    From 2007:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/bushs-war-heating-up-attack-on-iran-imminent/?highlight=israel+iran

    Constantly making the same predictions over and over again won't make them any more accurate. There's even basically the same article on this website right now by Petras.

    Even though Russian nationalist, Iran and Syria loving The Saker accusing another nation of having a bad army is just too ironic for words, the IDF really is shit.

    But it doesn’t matter because:

    1. the Arab Islamic armies, including Hezbollah, are even more shit
    2. There will not be a 2nd war with Hezbollah. For the 10 billionth time, the next time we go to war with Lebanon we are not even going to bother sending the troops in. We are going to destroy all of Lebanon’s water and electric plants from the air and wait for disease and starvation to annihilate the Lebanese people, after which we will resettle the land with Jews.

    But the fact that anybody in the year 2017, even one as retarded as The Saker, could seriously say that Israel is planning to attack Lebanon is just mind blowing. Why the Hell would Israel attack Hezbollah?

    Sorry homos, if you want a war, your Arab/Islamic pets are going to have to start it themselves. They know where to find us.

    How come they don’t want to come out and play?

    Read More
    • Troll: L.K
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  112. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @anony-mouse
    Yawn

    From 2007:

    http://www.unz.com/proberts/bushs-war-heating-up-attack-on-iran-imminent/?highlight=israel+iran

    Constantly making the same predictions over and over again won't make them any more accurate. There's even basically the same article on this website right now by Petras.

    Is there a science of prediction of whimsical l events ” You may never crash your car ,hit a side rail or fly arcing through the atmosphere after hitting gas pedal at 120 miles per hour . But the possibility is part of the process . Sooner or later it would happen . The logic of having no accident until it happens will not hold water . Large number of historical precedence of safe uneventful driving will be given no consideration for clemency .

    . The regimes that want war against Syria-Lebanon-Iran are trying hard to get a war that they could win but they know the win would come at such a steep price that their own survival might depend on the wishful thinking and magic.

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support . This last one is still not forthcoming as it were 1991 , 2001 and 2003 . Not only that , they know the lying hypocrisy and shortchanging and plain back stabbing have left other countries more determined clever and independent. Thats why regimes that want war are waiting like the car driver for accident to happen even when it is not sought actively . It is schizophrenic, magical thinking on their part . These 3 saudi US Israel – countries stand alone circling like vulture and hoping that the cow drops dead.

    Because even a robust reprisal by Syria in future will not bring back the coalition of the willing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Miro23

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support .
     
    International silence or active support for Middle east wars is hard to get. They had to organize the 9/11 deception to get support for the destruction of Iraq. They also had to fully mobilize their press behind the fakery of 9/11 (including WMD).

    If the US is the key player here (Israel is not going to fight Iran without the US doing the heavy lifting, and Saudi Arabia is militarily irrelevant), then the problem faced by the Israel/US/Saudi alliance is that Iran/Syria/Russia are trying hard not to be provoked while steadily winning on the ground.

    Also, 2017 is not 2001. The US public have seen the results of Middle East wars, they've been put in debt for $ Trillions to pay for these adventures, and there's an unprecedented lack of trust in the MSM. Trump was partly elected on a platform of "No more ME wars".

    But taking Iran as the principal target, a False Flag fabrication against Israel or Saudi Arabia wouldn't be enough to draw the US into this war. It would have to involve a major Zio organized attack on the US itself ( same as 9/11) or something like framing Iran for the sinking a US aircraft carrier (USS Liberty replay).

    Then there's the Russia aspect, the financial cost, the political side and the nature of the war.

    Russia wouldn't risk a nuclear conflict for Iran - even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it's probably safe to count them out.

    The US economy probably couldn't support another $ Trillion ME war - this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent. It would involve higher oil prices, the potential for spreading into Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and it would certainly alienate Russia and China (they have big investments in Iran). In short, a complicated war that could collapse a fragile US financial system.

    On the political side, Trump got elected on "No more ME wars", but a major False Flag would counter act this for a while, giving him the opportunity to show "leadership" and get the enthusiastic support of the US Zionists and the MSM.

    As for the war itself, it wouldn't be a ground war. Iran is too far away, the logistics are impossible, the country is too large, and the US just doesn't have the military capability for occupation - let alone the political will. The leaves the destruction of the Iran from the air and the question of air-defense , something that the Iranians have been working on upgrading.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.
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  113. Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,…). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.

    Try to start with simple physics. Evidently, you have a very vague idea what are you talking about. Should you have had even remote slightest clue of what signal processing is in such systems as radar, sonar, other sensors and how probabilities, which are usually criteria of efficiency, in general calculated–what is known as “mathematics” you wouldn’t be posting here this amateurish POVs. The moment Silicon Valley appears in anything related to military field–it is a first major red flag, which also points out to two possibilities:

    1. Hasbara troll;
    2. Butt-hurt amateur or combination of both, most likely from Israel.

    Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations

    You see, there are NO Azerbaijani Academies–never existed. Soviet academies, sure. I never heard of any Azerbaijani naval academies. But you surely wouldn’t know the difference.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of “horrible news” for the Israeli air technology (??).

    So, being tracked which is tantamount (once “high” is on) to being destroyed is an ability to “penetrate”? You obviously have no idea what “penetration” is and you continue to play dumb, which immediately betrays in you some Israeli BSer, in trying to tie in Russian AD complexes which have no relation to a defense of any Syria’s assets on the ground with Israeli’s F-35s. Now comes this other BS, you continue to push this faux-assumption that Russians somehow have to shoot down the aircraft of the nation with which Russian not only is NOT in the state of war, but with which as of now Russia is engaged in a very serious diplomatic (overt and covert) activity. So, for such “specialist” as you in signal processing, for the last time (you are obviously a troll but it is not so much for your benefit, anyway) , here is what integration is:

    1. Higher level of integration: or what today is known as Netcentric capability, especially, in AD–the ability to create what amounts to GIG (Global, or even local, Informational Grid), for details see Alberts, Garstka and late Cebrowski. See there what and how values of networks calculated by Metcalfe’s Law. It is, essentially, a whole combination of networks of sensors–from simple visual observer to active radar, to IR, to passive radar, to A-50 somewhere in the air, to satellites from Liana to whatever else which are unified in higher level battle space where each node of this network is capable to not only exchange (duplex, as oppose to simplex) information with each-other but to also, depending on the circumstances, form local sub0-networks.

    2. Syrian AD can be in such configuration only as a sub-network which is (I don’t know how they are integrated–I speculate: voice, some other protocols similar to CEC etc.) enclosed only between themselves. Nobody, I underscore–nobody will allow Syrian AD to be integrated on a higher level to Russian AD network, including a crucial one–communications network(s). But you can not know that, since do not understand how communications protocols, which are huge state secrets, operate and how communications networks open (or close) and operate.

    3. Russia AD forces in Syria not only see any Israeli aircraft, they see it even before it takes off (so much for Silicon Valley), they can track it, they can shoot it down. Obviously for such a hack like you are the whole idea that GRU right now has some satellites “positioned” on geostationary over the region is beyond your comprehension. Take a look at the schedule of recent launches–may give you a clue. I will omit here Liana which was in IOC some time ago.

    4. The news of Israeli F-35 “allegedly” damaged by birds simply disappeared from the air. Go figure, and the more the time passes, the more there are evidence of this super-pooper fighter being shot at by ancient Soviet S-200.

    So, Israel is hysterical, and so are you, because shits its pants from the whole notion of Syrian Air Defense steadily becoming more competent and proficient and, eventually, receiving (and it is coming) such things as Buk-M3, among others, which will make life of Israeli AF really complicated. But you still continue to push this “penetration” BS. If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it. Again, Russia’s peer is United States military, Israel and its grossly overrated (not to mention not own) military capabilities there are really good for fighting still mostly incompetent and weak Arab militaries. And even then, with the American sugar daddy behind, or, much more preferred, forward position.

    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.

    No, you are trolling by declaring all kinds of irrelevant crap and by steadily ignoring some basic military truisms even retards can grasp. I have no interest to discuss anything with you–there some people here who propagate some bizarre tactical and operational ideas, looks like in you we have got another one. I can assure you–if Russia decides to shoot Israeli aircraft down, she will do it no problem. To illustrate (extremely primitively–I hope you don’t expect me to give you lessons on basic operations?)–in this picture in red oval is what COULD be represented as Syrian AD integration into larger battle space Russian operate in Syria–see red arrows. But even this primitive explanation will do in explaining to you why Israel is hysterical (there are other very serious corroborations of this hysteria of which you are simply not aware, despite those facts being in public domain)–they just know. Try to enroll in Azerbaijani naval academy–may help;-)

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel
    Beautiful graphic and nice display of technical jargon for your fan base. But the fact remains that the Israeli aircraft keep bombing Russia's Syrian and Lebanese allies on their own territory, one that you say is integrated or partially integrated or whatever to the Russian air defense network in that theater. Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don't know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don't care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I'm clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.

    All of this brings to memory a very recent quote by world-reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson: "military science is to science the same as military music to music". You look keen in proving him right. How can you fail to grasp that data processing is... data processing? It doesn't matter in the slightest if the data comes from military or non-military instruments and if the purpose of the processing is military or civilian. It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I'm very happy to remain ignorant about it. What I am absolutely not is an amateur military analyst or anything of the like. Military analysis is very far removed form my main areas of interest. I am just a simple guy who is asking you a basic question and you are clearly losing the battle of trying to answer it.
    , @utu
    If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it.

    I wonder, I am really curious what is stopping Russia from doing so. Everybody and his uncle can fly over Syria with total impunity. Israel does what it wants. And Russia does nothing.
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  114. utu says:
    @Sam J.
    "...I’m a simple civilian just trying to learn how these defenders of the Russian military technological supremacy explain the apparent paradox that I exposed..."

    First I'll state I really don't know for sure but I think it likely that the Russians aren't shooting down all the Israeli aircraft to keep from making the war widen. If they did start shooting down all the aircraft then the Israelis would start shooting missiles to attack the anti-missle sites. Lots of risk. Major escalation. Second I don't think the Russians could shoot down all the craft due to electronic countermeasures. However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft. With the antiaircraft missiles in place it puts a crimp on Israeli operations. They have to stay away from certain areas or fly specific paths to avoid detection. They can not use the full capabilities of their aircraft. They can't KNOW exactly when the Russians have had enough and if this happens they will pay dearly so the Israelis have to be more prudent in where they strike or lose capabilities they have.

    However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft.

    Let’s try to estimate the number of planes they can shoot down. How many S-XXX batteries Russia has in Syria. Say N batteries. Each battery has K tubes. How much time does it take to reload K tubes? Say ∆T minutes.

    N*K<40

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.

    Israel can swarm and overwhelm Russia's defense. N*K is no more than 40. Out of 40 missiles at best 20 will hit their targets. This leaves 380 Israel planes. Each battery that launches one missile will be destroyed in less than ∆T time.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.

    The total operation would last less than 60 minutes to wipe out everything Russia has in Syria that can shoot down a plane and everything they have that can fly.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.
     
    About 300 combined. How many combat ready? Probably around 250. This, however, is not how Air Forces fight.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.
     
    You forget, apart from what amounts to two regiment complements of S-300 +S-400 some, undisclosed, number of Pantsyrs. FYI, each has 12 20-km range missiles. But you are obviously is not discussing things in good faith here. Ask a question what happens if Israel does attack Russian forces in Syria. This simple fact somehow continues to escape many local "observers" on these threads.
    , @Cloak And Dagger
    Israel will never allow 20 of its planes and pilots to be shot down. As soon as the first plane is hit, they would turn tail and run.
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  115. Mikel says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,…). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.
     
    Try to start with simple physics. Evidently, you have a very vague idea what are you talking about. Should you have had even remote slightest clue of what signal processing is in such systems as radar, sonar, other sensors and how probabilities, which are usually criteria of efficiency, in general calculated--what is known as "mathematics" you wouldn't be posting here this amateurish POVs. The moment Silicon Valley appears in anything related to military field--it is a first major red flag, which also points out to two possibilities:

    1. Hasbara troll;
    2. Butt-hurt amateur or combination of both, most likely from Israel.


    Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations
     
    You see, there are NO Azerbaijani Academies--never existed. Soviet academies, sure. I never heard of any Azerbaijani naval academies. But you surely wouldn't know the difference.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of “horrible news” for the Israeli air technology (??).
     
    So, being tracked which is tantamount (once "high" is on) to being destroyed is an ability to "penetrate"? You obviously have no idea what "penetration" is and you continue to play dumb, which immediately betrays in you some Israeli BSer, in trying to tie in Russian AD complexes which have no relation to a defense of any Syria's assets on the ground with Israeli's F-35s. Now comes this other BS, you continue to push this faux-assumption that Russians somehow have to shoot down the aircraft of the nation with which Russian not only is NOT in the state of war, but with which as of now Russia is engaged in a very serious diplomatic (overt and covert) activity. So, for such "specialist" as you in signal processing, for the last time (you are obviously a troll but it is not so much for your benefit, anyway) , here is what integration is:

    1. Higher level of integration: or what today is known as Netcentric capability, especially, in AD--the ability to create what amounts to GIG (Global, or even local, Informational Grid), for details see Alberts, Garstka and late Cebrowski. See there what and how values of networks calculated by Metcalfe's Law. It is, essentially, a whole combination of networks of sensors--from simple visual observer to active radar, to IR, to passive radar, to A-50 somewhere in the air, to satellites from Liana to whatever else which are unified in higher level battle space where each node of this network is capable to not only exchange (duplex, as oppose to simplex) information with each-other but to also, depending on the circumstances, form local sub0-networks.

    2. Syrian AD can be in such configuration only as a sub-network which is (I don't know how they are integrated--I speculate: voice, some other protocols similar to CEC etc.) enclosed only between themselves. Nobody, I underscore--nobody will allow Syrian AD to be integrated on a higher level to Russian AD network, including a crucial one--communications network(s). But you can not know that, since do not understand how communications protocols, which are huge state secrets, operate and how communications networks open (or close) and operate.

    3. Russia AD forces in Syria not only see any Israeli aircraft, they see it even before it takes off (so much for Silicon Valley), they can track it, they can shoot it down. Obviously for such a hack like you are the whole idea that GRU right now has some satellites "positioned" on geostationary over the region is beyond your comprehension. Take a look at the schedule of recent launches--may give you a clue. I will omit here Liana which was in IOC some time ago.

    4. The news of Israeli F-35 "allegedly" damaged by birds simply disappeared from the air. Go figure, and the more the time passes, the more there are evidence of this super-pooper fighter being shot at by ancient Soviet S-200.

    So, Israel is hysterical, and so are you, because shits its pants from the whole notion of Syrian Air Defense steadily becoming more competent and proficient and, eventually, receiving (and it is coming) such things as Buk-M3, among others, which will make life of Israeli AF really complicated. But you still continue to push this "penetration" BS. If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it. Again, Russia's peer is United States military, Israel and its grossly overrated (not to mention not own) military capabilities there are really good for fighting still mostly incompetent and weak Arab militaries. And even then, with the American sugar daddy behind, or, much more preferred, forward position.


    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.
     
    No, you are trolling by declaring all kinds of irrelevant crap and by steadily ignoring some basic military truisms even retards can grasp. I have no interest to discuss anything with you--there some people here who propagate some bizarre tactical and operational ideas, looks like in you we have got another one. I can assure you--if Russia decides to shoot Israeli aircraft down, she will do it no problem. To illustrate (extremely primitively--I hope you don't expect me to give you lessons on basic operations?)--in this picture in red oval is what COULD be represented as Syrian AD integration into larger battle space Russian operate in Syria--see red arrows. But even this primitive explanation will do in explaining to you why Israel is hysterical (there are other very serious corroborations of this hysteria of which you are simply not aware, despite those facts being in public domain)--they just know. Try to enroll in Azerbaijani naval academy--may help;-)

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6XUHL6PhJL8/WhNON0Uyz5I/AAAAAAAABP8/sm96Mbjfr9gUwYOzVbZMUobJmOmuKC8CQCLcBGAs/s1600/NCW-Syria.jpg

    Beautiful graphic and nice display of technical jargon for your fan base. But the fact remains that the Israeli aircraft keep bombing Russia’s Syrian and Lebanese allies on their own territory, one that you say is integrated or partially integrated or whatever to the Russian air defense network in that theater. Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don’t know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don’t care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I’m clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.

    All of this brings to memory a very recent quote by world-reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson: “military science is to science the same as military music to music”. You look keen in proving him right. How can you fail to grasp that data processing is… data processing? It doesn’t matter in the slightest if the data comes from military or non-military instruments and if the purpose of the processing is military or civilian. It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I’m very happy to remain ignorant about it. What I am absolutely not is an amateur military analyst or anything of the like. Military analysis is very far removed form my main areas of interest. I am just a simple guy who is asking you a basic question and you are clearly losing the battle of trying to answer it.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    A coherent and measured post, so, I'll try to answer that, really, simple question.
    I am not quite sure why some people here have problem answering it. Have a theory but let's skip it for the moment.

    Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don’t know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don’t care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I’m clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.
     
    Let's assume, for the moment, that Russia does have a technological advantage there (I don't buy it for a second, but that's really not important).
    So, let's assume that they do see everything (Russians I mean) and can shoot everything moving in that space. But, no, they do not pass all that information to the Syrians.
    So, Syrians are integrated in that system, but, as a little junior partner. They don't see much and, more importantly, haven't got systems and training capable of taking down IDF aircraft.

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.

    The order has been given, by the very top of Russian leadership, NOT to fire on Israelis.
    Simple.
    So simple that I really don't get what the fuss is all about.

    OK, I do get it, but, man.......

    , @Andrei Martyanov

    It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.
     
    No, it is you--since you never saw in your life anything even remotely connected to actual signal processing in military and for that I absolutely do not need opinions of Freeman Dyson, especially when I have an experience in communicating with people from 9th and other Institutes (you don't even have an idea what I am talking about) and if you want to provide your hot air from your balloon trying to impress me, you may stick to Dyson's opinions on military "science" (and music) as he "defines" them, which may explain a pathetic military record of precisely RAF and US military as a whole, those records supported by overwhelming empirical evidence. You are spectacularly un-knowledgeable on the issue, so much so that you have no idea how Soviet (read attentively--Soviet) SSNs in 1987 during operations Aport and Atrina logged more than 32 hours of tracking supposedly "undetectable" SSBNs of Ohio-class, in areas of their deployment no less. As per American corporations--you have Zero, zilch expertise be it in weapons design to actual performance assessment methods since you continue to piss against the wind, considering a well established fact of American military technology, including its hi-end systems being to a very large degree a fraud. At best--under-performing. In terms of Air Defense systems US is not even in the same universe as USSR/Russia and ask, if you have access to you Dyson idol, why it is so. Statistics has everything to do with it, while asking this great physicist/mathematician, ask him also how RAF was planning and executing its ASW operations in Biskay in WW II. Tell him that it had everything to do with actual science, from Search Theory to what amounted to Operational Research. That is how also probabilities are calculated--but this is beyond your grasp, the same as ASW, or, for that matter weapon systems in general.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I’m very happy to remain ignorant about it.
     
    You remain ignorant not only about that. Should you have known what Irtysh-Amphora, as an example, is, you wouldn't have been so sure in your ignorance stating what is marked in bold in your quote above. Should you have known what radiophotonics is, or what just flew yesterday (A-100) you would have really tone down your rhetoric but that brings this whole to thin to a two possible variants with you still being:

    1. Hasbara
    2. Butt-hurt fanboy from, allegedly theoretical (scientific?) field, who still believes that US military-industrial complex is competent, which is not the case and hasn't been for a long time now. Or you just try to play dumb.

    The record of failure is astonishing. As Colonel Davies succinctly observed: "The truth is, the United States is nowhere near as powerful and dominant as many believe." This is apart from the fact that you cannot have any competent (even remotely) opinion of Soviet/Russian military, its history, its technical capability, nor of its record. You don't like what I write--too bad. Try to impress college girls.

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  116. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel
    Beautiful graphic and nice display of technical jargon for your fan base. But the fact remains that the Israeli aircraft keep bombing Russia's Syrian and Lebanese allies on their own territory, one that you say is integrated or partially integrated or whatever to the Russian air defense network in that theater. Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don't know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don't care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I'm clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.

    All of this brings to memory a very recent quote by world-reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson: "military science is to science the same as military music to music". You look keen in proving him right. How can you fail to grasp that data processing is... data processing? It doesn't matter in the slightest if the data comes from military or non-military instruments and if the purpose of the processing is military or civilian. It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I'm very happy to remain ignorant about it. What I am absolutely not is an amateur military analyst or anything of the like. Military analysis is very far removed form my main areas of interest. I am just a simple guy who is asking you a basic question and you are clearly losing the battle of trying to answer it.

    A coherent and measured post, so, I’ll try to answer that, really, simple question.
    I am not quite sure why some people here have problem answering it. Have a theory but let’s skip it for the moment.

    Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don’t know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don’t care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I’m clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.

    Let’s assume, for the moment, that Russia does have a technological advantage there (I don’t buy it for a second, but that’s really not important).
    So, let’s assume that they do see everything (Russians I mean) and can shoot everything moving in that space. But, no, they do not pass all that information to the Syrians.
    So, Syrians are integrated in that system, but, as a little junior partner. They don’t see much and, more importantly, haven’t got systems and training capable of taking down IDF aircraft.

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.

    The order has been given, by the very top of Russian leadership, NOT to fire on Israelis.
    Simple.
    So simple that I really don’t get what the fuss is all about.

    OK, I do get it, but, man…….

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    • Replies: @Mikel
    Thanks. Sounds reasonable and simple indeed for an equally simple question.

    A published military professional should be able to give an explanation along those lines to a non-expert like me, perhaps embellishing the narrative to maintain the technological supremacy idea plausible. I would then be left in the doubt and presto.

    Instead, what you get is flowery, incoherent ramblings and gratuitous name-calling. That's why I'm telling Andrei that he's doing a disservice to his cause. What any impartial reader concludes from his non-replies is that the purported Russian technological advantage is probably as empty as them.
    , @Erebus

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.
     
    Of course. No other answer is possible.

    Russia's enemy is ISIS (and fanaticism generally).
    Russia's longer term interest is to bring MENA into the Multipolar Order without triggering a regional war. Shooting down IDF planes or retaliating may or may not trigger a response from the USM, but it will certainly complicate matters.
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  117. @utu
    However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft.

    Let's try to estimate the number of planes they can shoot down. How many S-XXX batteries Russia has in Syria. Say N batteries. Each battery has K tubes. How much time does it take to reload K tubes? Say ∆T minutes.

    N*K<40

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.

    Israel can swarm and overwhelm Russia's defense. N*K is no more than 40. Out of 40 missiles at best 20 will hit their targets. This leaves 380 Israel planes. Each battery that launches one missile will be destroyed in less than ∆T time.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.

    The total operation would last less than 60 minutes to wipe out everything Russia has in Syria that can shoot down a plane and everything they have that can fly.

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.

    About 300 combined. How many combat ready? Probably around 250. This, however, is not how Air Forces fight.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.

    You forget, apart from what amounts to two regiment complements of S-300 +S-400 some, undisclosed, number of Pantsyrs. FYI, each has 12 20-km range missiles. But you are obviously is not discussing things in good faith here. Ask a question what happens if Israel does attack Russian forces in Syria. This simple fact somehow continues to escape many local “observers” on these threads.

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    • Replies: @utu
    Ask a question what happens if Israel does attack Russian forces in Syria. This simple fact somehow continues to escape many local “observers” on these threads.

    So you admitted that I am correct that Israel could wipe out all S-XXX batteries in Syria and all Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minute. But it will not do so because of possible non-conventional retaliation by Russia. But Israel will be able to continue to push the envelope and be more audacious in its actions against Syria and Hezbollah. And Russia will not be able to stop it because in tit for tat conventional exchange Israel wins. So Russia does everything to pretend that it is not concerned with Israel actions in Syria.
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  118. @Mikel
    Beautiful graphic and nice display of technical jargon for your fan base. But the fact remains that the Israeli aircraft keep bombing Russia's Syrian and Lebanese allies on their own territory, one that you say is integrated or partially integrated or whatever to the Russian air defense network in that theater. Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don't know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don't care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I'm clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.

    All of this brings to memory a very recent quote by world-reknowned physicist Freeman Dyson: "military science is to science the same as military music to music". You look keen in proving him right. How can you fail to grasp that data processing is... data processing? It doesn't matter in the slightest if the data comes from military or non-military instruments and if the purpose of the processing is military or civilian. It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I'm very happy to remain ignorant about it. What I am absolutely not is an amateur military analyst or anything of the like. Military analysis is very far removed form my main areas of interest. I am just a simple guy who is asking you a basic question and you are clearly losing the battle of trying to answer it.

    It can only be done using mathematical and statistical tools, and nowadays our computing capabilities are opening huge new possibilities for data mining and signal processing with American corporations at the forefront of the enterprise. It is you who is getting spectacularly out of your depth by denying this obvious fact.

    No, it is you–since you never saw in your life anything even remotely connected to actual signal processing in military and for that I absolutely do not need opinions of Freeman Dyson, especially when I have an experience in communicating with people from 9th and other Institutes (you don’t even have an idea what I am talking about) and if you want to provide your hot air from your balloon trying to impress me, you may stick to Dyson’s opinions on military “science” (and music) as he “defines” them, which may explain a pathetic military record of precisely RAF and US military as a whole, those records supported by overwhelming empirical evidence. You are spectacularly un-knowledgeable on the issue, so much so that you have no idea how Soviet (read attentively–Soviet) SSNs in 1987 during operations Aport and Atrina logged more than 32 hours of tracking supposedly “undetectable” SSBNs of Ohio-class, in areas of their deployment no less. As per American corporations–you have Zero, zilch expertise be it in weapons design to actual performance assessment methods since you continue to piss against the wind, considering a well established fact of American military technology, including its hi-end systems being to a very large degree a fraud. At best–under-performing. In terms of Air Defense systems US is not even in the same universe as USSR/Russia and ask, if you have access to you Dyson idol, why it is so. Statistics has everything to do with it, while asking this great physicist/mathematician, ask him also how RAF was planning and executing its ASW operations in Biskay in WW II. Tell him that it had everything to do with actual science, from Search Theory to what amounted to Operational Research. That is how also probabilities are calculated–but this is beyond your grasp, the same as ASW, or, for that matter weapon systems in general.

    I have no idea what the word Hasbara means and I’m very happy to remain ignorant about it.

    You remain ignorant not only about that. Should you have known what Irtysh-Amphora, as an example, is, you wouldn’t have been so sure in your ignorance stating what is marked in bold in your quote above. Should you have known what radiophotonics is, or what just flew yesterday (A-100) you would have really tone down your rhetoric but that brings this whole to thin to a two possible variants with you still being:

    1. Hasbara
    2. Butt-hurt fanboy from, allegedly theoretical (scientific?) field, who still believes that US military-industrial complex is competent, which is not the case and hasn’t been for a long time now. Or you just try to play dumb.

    The record of failure is astonishing. As Colonel Davies succinctly observed: “The truth is, the United States is nowhere near as powerful and dominant as many believe.” This is apart from the fact that you cannot have any competent (even remotely) opinion of Soviet/Russian military, its history, its technical capability, nor of its record. You don’t like what I write–too bad. Try to impress college girls.

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  119. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.
     
    Wishful thinking.

    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.

    Wishful thinking.

    I have just stated a fact. You are projecting. It is your reality that is a wishful thinking. Hence your reality is vulnerable to facts.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    I have just stated a fact.
     
    The fact is that Israeli's AF sorties are exceedingly rare and very limited in scope today as opposed to even 2014 and today it is mostly under the pretext of attacking Hezbollah--I think you are misinterpreting here old Clauzewitzian dictum. Now, here comes this funny F-35 business. I have no answer to it but it all stinks to heaven (on Israeli and US side). Will we ever see the photo of this F-35 damaged by "birds"? I don't think so, nor will we ever see USS Reuben James ship "sunk" by SM-6 in "anti-shipping" mode as it was triumphantly claimed by Raytheon in 2016. Questions, questions.
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  120. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.
     
    About 300 combined. How many combat ready? Probably around 250. This, however, is not how Air Forces fight.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.
     
    You forget, apart from what amounts to two regiment complements of S-300 +S-400 some, undisclosed, number of Pantsyrs. FYI, each has 12 20-km range missiles. But you are obviously is not discussing things in good faith here. Ask a question what happens if Israel does attack Russian forces in Syria. This simple fact somehow continues to escape many local "observers" on these threads.

    Ask a question what happens if Israel does attack Russian forces in Syria. This simple fact somehow continues to escape many local “observers” on these threads.

    So you admitted that I am correct that Israel could wipe out all S-XXX batteries in Syria and all Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minute. But it will not do so because of possible non-conventional retaliation by Russia. But Israel will be able to continue to push the envelope and be more audacious in its actions against Syria and Hezbollah. And Russia will not be able to stop it because in tit for tat conventional exchange Israel wins. So Russia does everything to pretend that it is not concerned with Israel actions in Syria.

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  121. @Thirdeye

    Israel probably wants the Saudis to attack Hezbollah, certain to be defeated, and use that to draw the US into a war against Lebanon.
     
    I'm having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack - an extremely risky move for Israel. Whatever co-ordinated plans Israel and the Saudis develop are most likely predicated on drawing Iran into full-scale defense of the Shia crescent in Iraq and maybe Syria, forcing the US in to protect the gulf oil trade and, while everyone is preoccupied, Israel attacking in Lebanon and western Syria. But Israel would be faced with some serious dilemmas if things don't go as planned on the Saudi end, which seems likely from their performance in Yemen. And that's not even considering the fact that Iran could shut down the Saudi oil trade in a matter of hours if they came into direct conflict. It seems that any Israeli-Saudi move without first obtaining commitment from the US would be foolhardy and the US would be equally foolhardy to make such a prior commitment. But as Frank Zappa said, never underestimate stupidity.

    I’m having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack

    You are correct – with the changing facts on the ground like Turkey abandoning NATO imminently, and more importantly, Syrian victory over the empire-assisted ISIS has made this scenario implausible.

    Israel would love for the Saudis to attack Lebanon and lose there, but that is not going to happen unless MBS is completely insane. The Houthis in Yemen appear to be making their own missiles, and it is only a matter of time before Riyadh has to deal with a rainstorm from them, unless the Saudis can bring the war on Yemen to a speedy close – something I bet they desire to do without losing face.

    Meanwhile, attacking Lebanon would be a total disaster for the Saudis. The Hezbollah is now a battle-hardened force and far exceeds the might of the Saudis, despite their US weaponry. In fact, I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez. The IDF is still smarting from their thrashing from them in the 2006 war, and the the Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments. Here is a video commenting on how Hezbollah’s victory was total:

    The best laid plans of mice and men…

    Israel was counting on the decimation of the Shia crescent into scores of bantustans once Assad was deposed – but that didn’t happen – and the Shia crescent is not only victorious but stronger than ever. I doubt that Iran will enter directly into combat with Israel and will act through Hezbollah, but Syria is expected to be very involved and will have its sights on the Golan Heights.

    I think Israel would be crazy to attack Lebanon. Currently they are targeting minor Syrian sites from Lebanese air space. The Hezbollah just announced that they are about to vacate Iraq now that ISIS has been defeated, and they will shortly vacate Syria. At that point, any Israeli aircraft over Lebanon will probably become a target. Were Israel to launch an offensive, it would quickly become an existential problem for that little country. Sanity would prevent them from attacking Lebanon themselves, and it it is highly unlikely that Trump will attack Lebanon either. If Lebanon is attacked by Israel, it will be because of desperation on the part of Netanyahu to distract from the criminal charges that are being brought against him. If he does that, he will take Israel down with him.

    Interesting times.

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    • Replies: @Mikel

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez .../... Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.
     
    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don't seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn't like this to become another "you haven't studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don't know what you're talking about" kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.
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  122. @utu
    However I bet that if there was an all on war the Russians could shoot down a large number of the Israelis aircraft.

    Let's try to estimate the number of planes they can shoot down. How many S-XXX batteries Russia has in Syria. Say N batteries. Each battery has K tubes. How much time does it take to reload K tubes? Say ∆T minutes.

    N*K<40

    How many F-15 and F-16 Israel has? About 400.

    Israel can swarm and overwhelm Russia's defense. N*K is no more than 40. Out of 40 missiles at best 20 will hit their targets. This leaves 380 Israel planes. Each battery that launches one missile will be destroyed in less than ∆T time.

    However Israel would not use F-15 and F-16 in the first attack. Some planes would be sacrificed to provoke Russians to fire first. But then S-XXX batteries would be attacked with missile, decoys and drones.

    The total operation would last less than 60 minutes to wipe out everything Russia has in Syria that can shoot down a plane and everything they have that can fly.

    Israel will never allow 20 of its planes and pilots to be shot down. As soon as the first plane is hit, they would turn tail and run.

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    • Replies: @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?
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  123. Mikel says:
    @peterAUS
    A coherent and measured post, so, I'll try to answer that, really, simple question.
    I am not quite sure why some people here have problem answering it. Have a theory but let's skip it for the moment.

    Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don’t know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don’t care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I’m clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.
     
    Let's assume, for the moment, that Russia does have a technological advantage there (I don't buy it for a second, but that's really not important).
    So, let's assume that they do see everything (Russians I mean) and can shoot everything moving in that space. But, no, they do not pass all that information to the Syrians.
    So, Syrians are integrated in that system, but, as a little junior partner. They don't see much and, more importantly, haven't got systems and training capable of taking down IDF aircraft.

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.

    The order has been given, by the very top of Russian leadership, NOT to fire on Israelis.
    Simple.
    So simple that I really don't get what the fuss is all about.

    OK, I do get it, but, man.......

    Thanks. Sounds reasonable and simple indeed for an equally simple question.

    A published military professional should be able to give an explanation along those lines to a non-expert like me, perhaps embellishing the narrative to maintain the technological supremacy idea plausible. I would then be left in the doubt and presto.

    Instead, what you get is flowery, incoherent ramblings and gratuitous name-calling. That’s why I’m telling Andrei that he’s doing a disservice to his cause. What any impartial reader concludes from his non-replies is that the purported Russian technological advantage is probably as empty as them.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Well...I was actually more interested in why that push "Russia's technological advantage" here.
    Got my answer recently and sort of makes sense.
    The push, not the assumption, I mean.

    I don't buy that advantage.
    I mean, even if Russia does have that technological advantage (which I believe it does not) it wouldn't make any difference.

    Any serious clash between US and Russia, advantage or not, would escalate into nuclear.

    As for that technology being available to lesser players as Iran and/or North Korea, it isn't.
    So, bottom line, all this is just.......well, like those endless debates about "M-16 vs AK-47", "T-34 vs Panther", "Bismarck vs ship this/that" and such.

    My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such.....don't think it is as it looks.

    But, debating that again and again with Rusophiles around...nahh....

    I do remember similar debates before the fall of Soviet Union.
    "Sovietophiles" believed in one thing, "Westerners" in another.
    Same now.
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  124. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,…). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.
     
    Try to start with simple physics. Evidently, you have a very vague idea what are you talking about. Should you have had even remote slightest clue of what signal processing is in such systems as radar, sonar, other sensors and how probabilities, which are usually criteria of efficiency, in general calculated--what is known as "mathematics" you wouldn't be posting here this amateurish POVs. The moment Silicon Valley appears in anything related to military field--it is a first major red flag, which also points out to two possibilities:

    1. Hasbara troll;
    2. Butt-hurt amateur or combination of both, most likely from Israel.


    Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations
     
    You see, there are NO Azerbaijani Academies--never existed. Soviet academies, sure. I never heard of any Azerbaijani naval academies. But you surely wouldn't know the difference.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of “horrible news” for the Israeli air technology (??).
     
    So, being tracked which is tantamount (once "high" is on) to being destroyed is an ability to "penetrate"? You obviously have no idea what "penetration" is and you continue to play dumb, which immediately betrays in you some Israeli BSer, in trying to tie in Russian AD complexes which have no relation to a defense of any Syria's assets on the ground with Israeli's F-35s. Now comes this other BS, you continue to push this faux-assumption that Russians somehow have to shoot down the aircraft of the nation with which Russian not only is NOT in the state of war, but with which as of now Russia is engaged in a very serious diplomatic (overt and covert) activity. So, for such "specialist" as you in signal processing, for the last time (you are obviously a troll but it is not so much for your benefit, anyway) , here is what integration is:

    1. Higher level of integration: or what today is known as Netcentric capability, especially, in AD--the ability to create what amounts to GIG (Global, or even local, Informational Grid), for details see Alberts, Garstka and late Cebrowski. See there what and how values of networks calculated by Metcalfe's Law. It is, essentially, a whole combination of networks of sensors--from simple visual observer to active radar, to IR, to passive radar, to A-50 somewhere in the air, to satellites from Liana to whatever else which are unified in higher level battle space where each node of this network is capable to not only exchange (duplex, as oppose to simplex) information with each-other but to also, depending on the circumstances, form local sub0-networks.

    2. Syrian AD can be in such configuration only as a sub-network which is (I don't know how they are integrated--I speculate: voice, some other protocols similar to CEC etc.) enclosed only between themselves. Nobody, I underscore--nobody will allow Syrian AD to be integrated on a higher level to Russian AD network, including a crucial one--communications network(s). But you can not know that, since do not understand how communications protocols, which are huge state secrets, operate and how communications networks open (or close) and operate.

    3. Russia AD forces in Syria not only see any Israeli aircraft, they see it even before it takes off (so much for Silicon Valley), they can track it, they can shoot it down. Obviously for such a hack like you are the whole idea that GRU right now has some satellites "positioned" on geostationary over the region is beyond your comprehension. Take a look at the schedule of recent launches--may give you a clue. I will omit here Liana which was in IOC some time ago.

    4. The news of Israeli F-35 "allegedly" damaged by birds simply disappeared from the air. Go figure, and the more the time passes, the more there are evidence of this super-pooper fighter being shot at by ancient Soviet S-200.

    So, Israel is hysterical, and so are you, because shits its pants from the whole notion of Syrian Air Defense steadily becoming more competent and proficient and, eventually, receiving (and it is coming) such things as Buk-M3, among others, which will make life of Israeli AF really complicated. But you still continue to push this "penetration" BS. If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it. Again, Russia's peer is United States military, Israel and its grossly overrated (not to mention not own) military capabilities there are really good for fighting still mostly incompetent and weak Arab militaries. And even then, with the American sugar daddy behind, or, much more preferred, forward position.


    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.
     
    No, you are trolling by declaring all kinds of irrelevant crap and by steadily ignoring some basic military truisms even retards can grasp. I have no interest to discuss anything with you--there some people here who propagate some bizarre tactical and operational ideas, looks like in you we have got another one. I can assure you--if Russia decides to shoot Israeli aircraft down, she will do it no problem. To illustrate (extremely primitively--I hope you don't expect me to give you lessons on basic operations?)--in this picture in red oval is what COULD be represented as Syrian AD integration into larger battle space Russian operate in Syria--see red arrows. But even this primitive explanation will do in explaining to you why Israel is hysterical (there are other very serious corroborations of this hysteria of which you are simply not aware, despite those facts being in public domain)--they just know. Try to enroll in Azerbaijani naval academy--may help;-)

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6XUHL6PhJL8/WhNON0Uyz5I/AAAAAAAABP8/sm96Mbjfr9gUwYOzVbZMUobJmOmuKC8CQCLcBGAs/s1600/NCW-Syria.jpg

    If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it.

    I wonder, I am really curious what is stopping Russia from doing so. Everybody and his uncle can fly over Syria with total impunity. Israel does what it wants. And Russia does nothing.

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    • Replies: @Greasy William
    Maybe because Putin doesn't give a shit about the Palestinians? Maybe cause Putin isn't as anti Israel as you Russophile fucktards think he is?

    And no, Russia absolutely cannot close Syrian airspace to Israel. That is beyond delusional.
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  125. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Renoman
    And all the fallout from the 200 Israeli nukes will go straight to Russia! I don't think Vlad will put up with that.

    It’s not that significant. A nuke produces orders of magnitude less fallout than a commercial reactor melting down, and fukushima fell into obscurity pretty quick.

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  126. But it will not do so because of possible non-conventional retaliation by Russia

    Russia is very capable to rearrange stones in Israel’s military installations purely conventionally. Israel knows it, so does the US.

    So you admitted that I am correct that Israel could wipe out all S-XXX batteries in Syria and all Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minute.

    F-15 and F-16 are going to be jammed, literally–blinded. No Western (and Israeli) Air Force ever operated in such conditions in modern history. In Vietnam, USAF was decimated by SAMs. I already clearly stated my position on this issue in my last piece. Massive salvo by TLAMs has much higher probability of wiping out Russian AD in Syria than Israeli AF alone. Per jamming, EC(C)M, read attentively my response to this Mikel guy–Russia is in a separate league here, it is the fact which is not denied by even US top brass. Every scenario has specific probability and all sides are aware (more or less) about those. We are discussing here a spherical horse in vacuum. Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda. Look at the cold hard reality and facts–Israel informs Russian forces when it attacks and it makes damn sure that there are no Russian assets where it attacks in Syria. In fact, Israel increasingly is limited in application of its military force. How will it develop further–I don’t know but consider also this–with Tartus becoming a genuine naval base, as opposed to merely PMTO as it was before 2015, you may expect more of S-400 batteries plus AD means of naval assets there. So, the detection capability and salvo weight of AD will grow. The worst case scenario for Israel is restoration of fully functioning 5th OPESK with basing on Tartus and increased military competence of SAA. For Israel it is a nightmare. Can Israel just go bananas an do the unthinkable? Considering a psychotic state of American neocons (including their utter incompetence) and Bibi and his cabal feeling that they have nothing to lose–who knows. In the end, in the threatening period if such will exist (12-24 hours) there are good chances of Russian VKS simply getting a regiment of SU-30s and 35s to Syria–this will cool some overly hot heads. FYI, Turkey, couple of days ago allowed VKS aircraft fly through Turkish aerospace to Syria. If my memory doesn’t fail me the reload time for S-400 (depending on the crew) realistically is about 20 minutes or so. I could be wrong, of course.

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  127. @utu
    If Russia decides to close Syrian air space for Israel completely she can do it.

    I wonder, I am really curious what is stopping Russia from doing so. Everybody and his uncle can fly over Syria with total impunity. Israel does what it wants. And Russia does nothing.

    Maybe because Putin doesn’t give a shit about the Palestinians? Maybe cause Putin isn’t as anti Israel as you Russophile fucktards think he is?

    And no, Russia absolutely cannot close Syrian airspace to Israel. That is beyond delusional.

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  128. @utu


    The bottom line is that Russia can’t impose its will on Israel. If Israel decides to bomb Russia’s allies like Syria or Hezbollah Russia looks the other way.
     
    Wishful thinking.
     
    I have just stated a fact. You are projecting. It is your reality that is a wishful thinking. Hence your reality is vulnerable to facts.

    I have just stated a fact.

    The fact is that Israeli’s AF sorties are exceedingly rare and very limited in scope today as opposed to even 2014 and today it is mostly under the pretext of attacking Hezbollah–I think you are misinterpreting here old Clauzewitzian dictum. Now, here comes this funny F-35 business. I have no answer to it but it all stinks to heaven (on Israeli and US side). Will we ever see the photo of this F-35 damaged by “birds”? I don’t think so, nor will we ever see USS Reuben James ship “sunk” by SM-6 in “anti-shipping” mode as it was triumphantly claimed by Raytheon in 2016. Questions, questions.

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  129. utu says:
    @Cloak And Dagger
    Israel will never allow 20 of its planes and pilots to be shot down. As soon as the first plane is hit, they would turn tail and run.

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel’s interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

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    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Wow.....
    That was some post......

    As for the questions, I'll bite.

    Like for example try to explain what was Israel’s interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria?
     
    Well....I am not quite sure that anyone allowed Russia anything in their move into Syria. That, IMHO, surprised everybody on the "West side", Israel included.

    What game is Israel playing?
     
    The same since '48: security of the state of Israel. Weak/fragmented Syria good; strong/cohesive Syria bad.

    Is Israel using Russia?
     
    Let's say it's a marriage of conveyance...for the moment.
    Russia wants presence in that region. Israel wants weak Syria.
    Those two goals can work together.
    , @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...
    , @Mikel

    If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov.
     
    Sadly, it does look like that is all there is to it.

    I perfectly remember Saker stating in one of his pieces not long ago that not only the US but Israel itself had the capability of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria. Now it turns out that the Israeli air force is being allowed to operate out of Russian compassion. Go figure.
    , @Erebus

    I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria.
     
    "Fact"? You can't be serious.

    ... Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    In Q4 2015, m-a-y-b-e... though 60 minutes seems a bridge too far.
    Today? I seriously doubt the IDF has the numbers, even without involving Russia's stand-off weapons. However strongly you feel about it, the case you made certainly doesn't come close to showing it possible, never mind "in 60 minutes". Some real numbers would be a good place to start.

    Look utu, the Russians have put the USM in an existential dilemma in the M.E. and they stood down with an order of magnitude more assets available than the IDF, and a lot more at stake. They've been relegated to playing spoiler, as the IDF has been. The 4+1 have been content to let them fool around like this, but have progressively shortened the leash. Every day, they can spoil a little less. One day they'll find themselves unable to spoil more.

    Israel is in roughly the same existential dilemma as the US. What makes you think the results their calculus is producing look more promising than the USM's?

    , @Anon
    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians? - This is a highly immature thinking. And why such an envy towards Saker and Andrei Martyanov? - You are free to shine here; just show your expertise. By the way, it does not help that you (hiding under a nick "utu" and not particularly popular as analyst) allow yourself to accuse other readers in sycophancy only because you do not like the Saker ‘s and Andrei Martyanov’ superb analyses. When you reach their level of expertise (and their real-name recognition), then your opinions could be taken seriously.
    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com. This is his real name. Colonel Lang is in possession of formidable military and cultural expertise re Middle East. Saker’s name shows up on his blog from time to time.
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  130. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel
    Thanks. Sounds reasonable and simple indeed for an equally simple question.

    A published military professional should be able to give an explanation along those lines to a non-expert like me, perhaps embellishing the narrative to maintain the technological supremacy idea plausible. I would then be left in the doubt and presto.

    Instead, what you get is flowery, incoherent ramblings and gratuitous name-calling. That's why I'm telling Andrei that he's doing a disservice to his cause. What any impartial reader concludes from his non-replies is that the purported Russian technological advantage is probably as empty as them.

    Well…I was actually more interested in why that push “Russia’s technological advantage” here.
    Got my answer recently and sort of makes sense.
    The push, not the assumption, I mean.

    I don’t buy that advantage.
    I mean, even if Russia does have that technological advantage (which I believe it does not) it wouldn’t make any difference.

    Any serious clash between US and Russia, advantage or not, would escalate into nuclear.

    As for that technology being available to lesser players as Iran and/or North Korea, it isn’t.
    So, bottom line, all this is just…….well, like those endless debates about “M-16 vs AK-47″, “T-34 vs Panther”, “Bismarck vs ship this/that” and such.

    My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such…..don’t think it is as it looks.

    But, debating that again and again with Rusophiles around…nahh….

    I do remember similar debates before the fall of Soviet Union.
    “Sovietophiles” believed in one thing, “Westerners” in another.
    Same now.

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    • Replies: @L.K
    Troll peterAu: "My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such…..don’t think it is as it looks."

    Corruption, eh? How about it in the ZUSA, Troll?? No? Yes.
    Wastrels of Defense: How Congress Sabotages U.S. Security
    https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/159114938X/counterpunchmaga

    In this damning expose, a veteran senate defense advisor argues that since Sept 11, 2001, the conduct of the U.S. Congress has sunk to new depths and endangered the nation's security. Winslow Wheeler draws on three decades of work with four prominent senators to tell in lively detail how members of Congress divert money from essential war-fighting accounts to pay for pork in their home states, cook the budget books to pursue personal agendas, and run for cover when confronted with tough defense issues. With meticulous documentation to support his claims, he contends that this behavior is not confined to one party or one political philosophy.
     
    , @Anon
    "...work ethic, corruption, quality control and such..."
    Amazing the eagerness with which an Israel-firster accuses Russians in all deadly sins, while forgetting about the availability of other sources of information for the Unz readers.
    Here is something for "peterAUS:"
    "In the George W. Bush regime Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld said that the Pentagon could not acount for $2.3 trillion dollars. $2.3 trillion is an enormous sum, but now 15 years later the missing money is almost three times larger. The Pentagon says it cannot account for $6.5 trillion. The Pentagon, which has been notoriously lax in its accounting practices, has never completed an audit, would reveal how the agency has specifically spent the trillions of dollars allocated for wars, equipment, personnel, housing, healthcare and procurements allotted to them by Congress."
    And this is when they can account for the expenses:
    "Military Admits Trillion Dollar F-35 Program is a Failure" https://www.activistpost.com/2016/03/military-admits-trillion-dollar-f-35-program-is-a-failure.html
    "For over a decade the US military has spent $1.5 trillion dollars to create an all-purpose fighter jet that would replace their diverse fleet of warplanes. It’s a project that has been rife with criticism for being grossly over budget and delayed for years, not to mention the fact that the plane is riddled with technical flaws and lacks maneuverability (most recently, it was revealed that the F-35 has a faulty radar that needs to be frequently restarted). And each of these problem prone aircraft cost 3 to 5 times as much to manufacture as older fighter jets, like the F-15 and F-16. Now officials with the Pentagon are admitting that this massive boondoggle is a total bust."
    Here is the “most moral” partner of the US: https://www.timesofisrael.com/is-israel-becoming-a-mafia-state/
    "...the massive growth of organized crime in Israel over the past ten years, as well as the fact that Israel has become one of the world’s leading exporters of investment scams, stealing an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion per year from victims worldwide. Despite the fact that Israeli police recently announced that these investment scams are largely run by organized crime, which has grown to “monstrous proportions” as a consequence of little to no law enforcement for years, the Israeli government, parliament and authorities have to date proved unwilling or unable to shut them down, in part because these fraudulent industries have a powerful lobby in the Knesset."
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  131. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Erik Schmidt, a darling of ADL (the same Jewish Anti-Defamation League that continues to be blind to the revival of neo-Nazism in Ukraine, courtesy Nuland-Kagan) has found a novel way to suppress the freedom of information. Guess the course of the war in Syria does not please Schmidt’ ziocon friends…
    “Google will ‘de-rank’ RT articles to make them harder to find – Eric Schmidt”

    https://www.rt.com/news/410444-google-alphabet-derank-rt/

    Eric Schmidt “advised Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign on digital operations, and offered the same services to Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2015, according to several emails from campaign chairman John Podesta’s private account, published by WikiLeaks last October. On election night 2016, Schmidt was spotted at the Clinton campaign headquarters with a “staff” badge, according to a photo submitted to Politico.”
    The weasel has no evidence of the fake news on RT, but he does not care. Ironically, it is his longtime friend Clinton and her retinue who were caught on making fraudulent statements and on creating and promoting the fake news (and paying for the fakes with good money collected from the hapless supporters of the Dems).

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  132. peterAUS says:
    @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

    Wow…..
    That was some post……

    As for the questions, I’ll bite.

    Like for example try to explain what was Israel’s interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria?

    Well….I am not quite sure that anyone allowed Russia anything in their move into Syria. That, IMHO, surprised everybody on the “West side”, Israel included.

    What game is Israel playing?

    The same since ’48: security of the state of Israel. Weak/fragmented Syria good; strong/cohesive Syria bad.

    Is Israel using Russia?

    Let’s say it’s a marriage of conveyance…for the moment.
    Russia wants presence in that region. Israel wants weak Syria.
    Those two goals can work together.

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    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    Let’s say it’s a marriage of conveyance[sic]…for the moment.
     
    Why do you assume that there is a marriage of convenience between Russia and Israel? Is it because Russia has not struck back at the mosquito stings from Israel in the limited attacks on Syrian armaments?

    I believe that Russia, being a much superior chess player than our government or that of Israel, is directing its energy to restoring Syria to stability to give it a strong foothold in that strategic country, before opening up a front with Israel that could escalate to WW3. Once the current drama winds down, probably by the end of the year, all bets are off as to what grand move Putin will make. Note that so far, all requests from Israel to block Iranian presence near Israeli borders have been rebuffed by Russia. Hardly a marriage of convenience, and certainly not one of love!

    My guess, and it is only a speculation, is that Russia will not directly engage Israel. However, I do expect her to arm Syria, and indirectly Lebanon, and turn the skies above both those countries into a no-fly zone. Will the US object - yes, violently. However, we are slowly turning into a paper tiger as almost all our games in the ME are checkmated by a far superior Russian chess player. It is tempting to think that the superior weaponry that we give to Israel will allow it to prevail somehow, but I wouldn't bet a dime on it.
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  133. Ron Unz says:
    @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.

    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren’t you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with—as far as I know—very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I’m no expert on this, but isn’t this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?…

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    • Replies: @Mikel

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?
     
    Yes. But note that, while he could perfectly make that point again, this is NOT what Andrei is claiming in his comments this time around. To quote:

    Russia AD forces in Syria not only see any Israeli aircraft, they see it even before it takes off (so much for Silicon Valley), they can track it, they can shoot it down.
     

    F-15 and F-16 are going to be jammed, literally–blinded. No Western (and Israeli) Air Force ever operated in such conditions in modern history. In Vietnam, USAF was decimated by SAMs. .../... Per jamming, EC(C)M, read attentively my response to this Mikel guy–Russia is in a separate league here, it is the fact which is not denied by even US top brass.
     
    , @Cloak And Dagger
    That's a good point, Ron. Russia is a super power with the ability to resupply the battlefield much faster than the US can get supplies to Israel, not even taking into account the ability to use long range missiles. Now with Turkey rapidly receding from the NATO sphere, it will be much harder to restock Israeli supplies - perhaps from Germany...

    However, I am not convinced that a Russian response is necessary. If there is a massive attack launched on Syria, I expect a missile response towards Israel, certainly from Syria, bur even more significantly from Hezbollah - reputed to have over 110,000 rockets ready to launch from sites that are hard to hit back. If a large number of Israeli aircraft should take to the skies (not even considering the logistics of mid-air refueling of such a large fleet), they would probably have no airport to return to, as Hezbollah rockets would carpet bomb every possible strip of runway in tiny Israel. I can also see Dimona going up in a puff of smoke as the rockets rained down.

    Even Iran would not have to engage in direct combat with Israel. BTW, as an aside, with Turkey checking out, and therefore, denying transit through her airspace, I am not sure how Israel could get bombers to Iran and back.

    The whole idea of Israel waging a war on Iran and winning has gone from improbable to impossible.

    , @utu
    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    "the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria."
     
    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker's commentariat My point was that Russia's forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can't afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel's AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei's articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei's article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

    , @utu
    couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    How much damage can cruise missiles do with conventional payloads? The US Navy has 3500 cruise missiles. Each can carry 450kg payload. This is 1575 tons. In Feb 1945 the total tonnage dropped on Dresden was 3900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices. Still 1575 tonnes is a lot of damage. But you can do it only once.

    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?
    , @Andrei Martyanov
    Agree, Ron. Moreover, today Russia officially announced hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon being operational--that changes dynamics in Mediterranean completely, I mean radically. We knew that it was coming, now it is here. It is, without exaggeration, a death knell for US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups in Med (and elsewhere).
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  134. Mikel says:
    @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

    If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov.

    Sadly, it does look like that is all there is to it.

    I perfectly remember Saker stating in one of his pieces not long ago that not only the US but Israel itself had the capability of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria. Now it turns out that the Israeli air force is being allowed to operate out of Russian compassion. Go figure.

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  135. Mikel says:
    @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Yes. But note that, while he could perfectly make that point again, this is NOT what Andrei is claiming in his comments this time around. To quote:

    Russia AD forces in Syria not only see any Israeli aircraft, they see it even before it takes off (so much for Silicon Valley), they can track it, they can shoot it down.

    F-15 and F-16 are going to be jammed, literally–blinded. No Western (and Israeli) Air Force ever operated in such conditions in modern history. In Vietnam, USAF was decimated by SAMs. …/… Per jamming, EC(C)M, read attentively my response to this Mikel guy–Russia is in a separate league here, it is the fact which is not denied by even US top brass.

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  136. Erebus says:
    @survey-of-disinfo
    Just imagine what songs Bandar Bush is singing in "the Ritz" these days. Want to sue Saudi Arabia for money because of 9/11? No problem, judge. Here are the names, here are the numbers, and here are the facts.

    Disagree regarding multipolar order. The super structures for Globalism are untouched in all this theatrical displays. All parties seem to participate actively in key Globalist institutions.

    Petrodollar is not and was never a component of NWO. It was an instrument of American supremacy. There are no planned superpowers in the NWO vision. Only Super-Institutions.

    Disagree regarding multipolar order. The super structures for Globalism are untouched in all this theatrical displays.

    Untouched? No.
    Altered to suit new security structures and players? Yes.

    The latter will take a decade or two to sort out fully, but they’re already changing.
    Look, Globalism is here to stay unless a Yellowstone or nuke war goes off. The question being answered underneath these “theatrical displays” is who will run it. Up until recently, it was the US who had alone chaired those super-structures/institutions deciding trade, military, financial relations between nations. That is what Pax Americana means.

    Russia & China, supported by a few “rogue nations”, are challenging the US’ chairmanship. They want [a] a Chair shared between the 3 (or 4, if the EU can get itself together) big players, with [b] a lot more voice for both the other board members and for the shareholders (small nations). That is what “Multipolar Order” means. They’re getting more & more nations to go “rogue” and support their demands. When they get enough shareholders on board, a boardroom coup will ensue.

    They made a tremendous leap forward in MENA in the last 2 years and are on the brink of cutting that critical energy source loose from Pax Americana. When/if that happens, America’s chairmanship goes very wobbly indeed. Pax Americana’s linchpin is the Petro-Dollar, and the Petro-Dollar’s linchpin is KSA. 70% of the world’s energy sources would then fall under the Multipolar Order’s control. Utterly dependent on those sources, Asia & Europe will be the next dominoes to fall, and then Pax Americana disappears.

    The terrifying question is whether the US will resign its Chair gracefully and sit amongst equals, or will it go for broke. The American nation decided for the former in the last election. A large faction of US elites disagreed, and want to go for broke. The nonsense flung back and forth between the two factions is just the part of the global theatrical displays that exercises the American public. The international parts entertain the rest of us (though I indulge myself with plenty of giggles at the US soap opera).

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  137. @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...

    That’s a good point, Ron. Russia is a super power with the ability to resupply the battlefield much faster than the US can get supplies to Israel, not even taking into account the ability to use long range missiles. Now with Turkey rapidly receding from the NATO sphere, it will be much harder to restock Israeli supplies – perhaps from Germany…

    However, I am not convinced that a Russian response is necessary. If there is a massive attack launched on Syria, I expect a missile response towards Israel, certainly from Syria, bur even more significantly from Hezbollah – reputed to have over 110,000 rockets ready to launch from sites that are hard to hit back. If a large number of Israeli aircraft should take to the skies (not even considering the logistics of mid-air refueling of such a large fleet), they would probably have no airport to return to, as Hezbollah rockets would carpet bomb every possible strip of runway in tiny Israel. I can also see Dimona going up in a puff of smoke as the rockets rained down.

    Even Iran would not have to engage in direct combat with Israel. BTW, as an aside, with Turkey checking out, and therefore, denying transit through her airspace, I am not sure how Israel could get bombers to Iran and back.

    The whole idea of Israel waging a war on Iran and winning has gone from improbable to impossible.

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  138. @peterAUS
    Wow.....
    That was some post......

    As for the questions, I'll bite.

    Like for example try to explain what was Israel’s interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria?
     
    Well....I am not quite sure that anyone allowed Russia anything in their move into Syria. That, IMHO, surprised everybody on the "West side", Israel included.

    What game is Israel playing?
     
    The same since '48: security of the state of Israel. Weak/fragmented Syria good; strong/cohesive Syria bad.

    Is Israel using Russia?
     
    Let's say it's a marriage of conveyance...for the moment.
    Russia wants presence in that region. Israel wants weak Syria.
    Those two goals can work together.

    Let’s say it’s a marriage of conveyance[sic]…for the moment.

    Why do you assume that there is a marriage of convenience between Russia and Israel? Is it because Russia has not struck back at the mosquito stings from Israel in the limited attacks on Syrian armaments?

    I believe that Russia, being a much superior chess player than our government or that of Israel, is directing its energy to restoring Syria to stability to give it a strong foothold in that strategic country, before opening up a front with Israel that could escalate to WW3. Once the current drama winds down, probably by the end of the year, all bets are off as to what grand move Putin will make. Note that so far, all requests from Israel to block Iranian presence near Israeli borders have been rebuffed by Russia. Hardly a marriage of convenience, and certainly not one of love!

    My guess, and it is only a speculation, is that Russia will not directly engage Israel. However, I do expect her to arm Syria, and indirectly Lebanon, and turn the skies above both those countries into a no-fly zone. Will the US object – yes, violently. However, we are slowly turning into a paper tiger as almost all our games in the ME are checkmated by a far superior Russian chess player. It is tempting to think that the superior weaponry that we give to Israel will allow it to prevail somehow, but I wouldn’t bet a dime on it.

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  139. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS
    A coherent and measured post, so, I'll try to answer that, really, simple question.
    I am not quite sure why some people here have problem answering it. Have a theory but let's skip it for the moment.

    Neither the Syrians nor their Arab neighbors have so far been able to show any single Israeli aircraft shot down. I don’t know whether the military term for this is penetration, aerial sodomization or what have you. I don’t care. This is the fact that I have asked you to reconcile with the alleged Russian technological advantage but I’m clearly failing to get this simple idea into your skull.
     
    Let's assume, for the moment, that Russia does have a technological advantage there (I don't buy it for a second, but that's really not important).
    So, let's assume that they do see everything (Russians I mean) and can shoot everything moving in that space. But, no, they do not pass all that information to the Syrians.
    So, Syrians are integrated in that system, but, as a little junior partner. They don't see much and, more importantly, haven't got systems and training capable of taking down IDF aircraft.

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.

    The order has been given, by the very top of Russian leadership, NOT to fire on Israelis.
    Simple.
    So simple that I really don't get what the fuss is all about.

    OK, I do get it, but, man.......

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.

    Of course. No other answer is possible.

    Russia’s enemy is ISIS (and fanaticism generally).
    Russia’s longer term interest is to bring MENA into the Multipolar Order without triggering a regional war. Shooting down IDF planes or retaliating may or may not trigger a response from the USM, but it will certainly complicate matters.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    Russia’s longer term interest is to bring MENA into the Multipolar Order without triggering a regional war. Shooting down IDF planes or retaliating may or may not trigger a response from the USM, but it will certainly complicate matters.
     
    Agree.
    That mess there is already complicated enough; adding more complications would just make no sense for Russia.

    And, having chaos in that region is exactly what The Empire wants.
    Or at least the Necoon part of it, according to Friedman.
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  140. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...

    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    “the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria.”

    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker’s commentariat My point was that Russia’s forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel’s AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei’s articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei’s article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

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    And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel.
     
    Seriously? Not even Syria is at the mercy of Israel anymore. The Tribe has lost its proxy wars both in Syria and Iraq. Hezbollah is stronger than ever and Turkey is making deals with Russia and forging its own path. Now compare this situation to the one from 2015 (before Russia intervened).

    The only reason Russia is not shooting down Israeli planes (at the moment) is because of the golem in the room - the US. Nobody wants to start WW3 over this. Unfortunately, I have no doubt that the Tribe will keep pushing until it happens so maybe it's better to draw a thick red line and do it now.
    , @Sergey Krieger
    Remember about all that nice stand off Russian capability. I have serious doubt it will be left unused if there will be any sign of Israeli large scale attack. All Israeli bases and airports are known. This capability can be used as swiftly against American or Israeli assets. Andrei also mentioned EW capabilities and if S200 could see F35... I expect no crazy moves from Israel. They are not suicidal.
    , @peterAUS
    Agree with a couple of exceptions:

    And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel.
     
    That's too strong a statement I guess. The Big Three aren't at anyone's mercy. That's what having thermonuclear ICMBs is all about.

    And, personally, I don't see Israel (or anyone, for that matter) wiping out Russian contingent in Syria.

    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    Hassling them, making their life difficult, "hit and run" tactics and such, yes, of course. From "incidents" to IEDs, assassinations, small raids etc.

    But large scale attack on them...well...say....with the same probability as an asteroid crashing in Syria.
    , @Anon
    "If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it."

    Are you serious, "utu"? Do you still play with toy soldiers? If the "most moral" apartheid state had a chance, it would already tried to wipe out the Russian forces in Syria.
    Now, "utu", concentrate your attention on a very special Q: -- Why Israelis has not dared to wipe out the Russian forces in Syria, even if the Lobby and Bibi are livid about Russians' progress against ISIS in the sovereign state of Syria? And do not forget that the "U.S. Military is a Zionist Organization" (from a speech given by Shoshana Bryen at the American Zionist Movement Conference November 2017, Washington, DC) https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/2017/11/20/u-s-military-zionist-organization/
    Just think hard. (A que: Russia is a nuclear state that is not too far away geographically from the moral-midget state of Israel).
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  141. Miro23 says:
    @anon
    Is there a science of prediction of whimsical l events " You may never crash your car ,hit a side rail or fly arcing through the atmosphere after hitting gas pedal at 120 miles per hour . But the possibility is part of the process . Sooner or later it would happen . The logic of having no accident until it happens will not hold water . Large number of historical precedence of safe uneventful driving will be given no consideration for clemency .

    . The regimes that want war against Syria-Lebanon-Iran are trying hard to get a war that they could win but they know the win would come at such a steep price that their own survival might depend on the wishful thinking and magic.

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support . This last one is still not forthcoming as it were 1991 , 2001 and 2003 . Not only that , they know the lying hypocrisy and shortchanging and plain back stabbing have left other countries more determined clever and independent. Thats why regimes that want war are waiting like the car driver for accident to happen even when it is not sought actively . It is schizophrenic, magical thinking on their part . These 3 saudi US Israel - countries stand alone circling like vulture and hoping that the cow drops dead.

    Because even a robust reprisal by Syria in future will not bring back the coalition of the willing.

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support .

    International silence or active support for Middle east wars is hard to get. They had to organize the 9/11 deception to get support for the destruction of Iraq. They also had to fully mobilize their press behind the fakery of 9/11 (including WMD).

    If the US is the key player here (Israel is not going to fight Iran without the US doing the heavy lifting, and Saudi Arabia is militarily irrelevant), then the problem faced by the Israel/US/Saudi alliance is that Iran/Syria/Russia are trying hard not to be provoked while steadily winning on the ground.

    Also, 2017 is not 2001. The US public have seen the results of Middle East wars, they’ve been put in debt for $ Trillions to pay for these adventures, and there’s an unprecedented lack of trust in the MSM. Trump was partly elected on a platform of “No more ME wars”.

    But taking Iran as the principal target, a False Flag fabrication against Israel or Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be enough to draw the US into this war. It would have to involve a major Zio organized attack on the US itself ( same as 9/11) or something like framing Iran for the sinking a US aircraft carrier (USS Liberty replay).

    Then there’s the Russia aspect, the financial cost, the political side and the nature of the war.

    Russia wouldn’t risk a nuclear conflict for Iran – even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it’s probably safe to count them out.

    The US economy probably couldn’t support another $ Trillion ME war – this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent. It would involve higher oil prices, the potential for spreading into Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and it would certainly alienate Russia and China (they have big investments in Iran). In short, a complicated war that could collapse a fragile US financial system.

    On the political side, Trump got elected on “No more ME wars”, but a major False Flag would counter act this for a while, giving him the opportunity to show “leadership” and get the enthusiastic support of the US Zionists and the MSM.

    As for the war itself, it wouldn’t be a ground war. Iran is too far away, the logistics are impossible, the country is too large, and the US just doesn’t have the military capability for occupation – let alone the political will. The leaves the destruction of the Iran from the air and the question of air-defense , something that the Iranians have been working on upgrading.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.

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    • Replies: @peterAUS

    The US economy probably couldn’t support another $ Trillion ME war – this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent.
     
    Well...that is the element I've been trying to get some more info about, with zero success.

    In simple words: war is good for business.

    A bit longer: could a decent war with Iran rejuvenate industrial base in Trump base states? Bring those industries back and create jobs for "America firsters".
    If yes, well.....all the rest is easy........
    , @Anonymous
    Good analysis but I'm not too sure about this:

    Russia wouldn’t risk a nuclear conflict for Iran – even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it’s probably safe to count them out.
     
    Both nuclear superpowers' doctrines include the use of nuclear strikes - when necessary. Furthermore: Iran, and the region, are non-negotiable for Russia. If they can't protect their friendly nations there they'll lose all other friends, allies, partners and fence-sitters. Right now, China and Russia are building their own coalition and the best way to do that is to show strength and loyalty. Otherwise, they'll face the next war isolated and alone.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.
     
    Couldn't agree more. I'd go even further but that's another story.
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  142. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...

    couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    How much damage can cruise missiles do with conventional payloads? The US Navy has 3500 cruise missiles. Each can carry 450kg payload. This is 1575 tons. In Feb 1945 the total tonnage dropped on Dresden was 3900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices. Still 1575 tonnes is a lot of damage. But you can do it only once.

    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?

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    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?
     
    If you read recent (couple of weeks ago--Day of Military Acceptance) report (transcript) by First Deputy Defense Minister Borisov to Putin and Shoigu, he was very specific in one sense. I quote him: "more than 30 times since 2014", this is how many fold the arsenal of stand-off weaponry increased. The logical question, of course, is 30 times WHAT number? I can tell you only one thing for sure--that in 2014 the number was either very high dozens (tens) or very low hundreds (150-200 etc.), now multiply it by 30 and you will at least get the magnitude. So, in low thousands.
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  143. Erebus says:
    @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

    I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria.

    “Fact”? You can’t be serious.

    … Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.

    In Q4 2015, m-a-y-b-e… though 60 minutes seems a bridge too far.
    Today? I seriously doubt the IDF has the numbers, even without involving Russia’s stand-off weapons. However strongly you feel about it, the case you made certainly doesn’t come close to showing it possible, never mind “in 60 minutes”. Some real numbers would be a good place to start.

    Look utu, the Russians have put the USM in an existential dilemma in the M.E. and they stood down with an order of magnitude more assets available than the IDF, and a lot more at stake. They’ve been relegated to playing spoiler, as the IDF has been. The 4+1 have been content to let them fool around like this, but have progressively shortened the leash. Every day, they can spoil a little less. One day they’ll find themselves unable to spoil more.

    Israel is in roughly the same existential dilemma as the US. What makes you think the results their calculus is producing look more promising than the USM’s?

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  144. Art says:

    Israel has one year to attack Lebanon and Syria and take out those governments – after that they will be the underdogs.

    In a year Lebanon and Syria can resupply with advanced weapons and build defenses – whereas Israel has today what it will have next year.

    Think Peace — Art

    p.s. Saudi war making is a joke – other than a few low number special groups – they have no fighters – the average Saudi has no desire to die for the royals.

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    Israel has one year to attack Lebanon and Syria and take out those governments – after that they will be the underdogs.
     
    You have a point. I am not sure how long but you do have a point--it is a race. After today's news from Russia it becomes even more apparent, Israel loses US support in Med if push comes to shove. 3M22 Zirkon is officially operational now. Man, that changes the whole dynamics in Med.
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  145. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    "the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria."
     
    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker's commentariat My point was that Russia's forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can't afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel's AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei's articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei's article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

    And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel.

    Seriously? Not even Syria is at the mercy of Israel anymore. The Tribe has lost its proxy wars both in Syria and Iraq. Hezbollah is stronger than ever and Turkey is making deals with Russia and forging its own path. Now compare this situation to the one from 2015 (before Russia intervened).

    The only reason Russia is not shooting down Israeli planes (at the moment) is because of the golem in the room – the US. Nobody wants to start WW3 over this. Unfortunately, I have no doubt that the Tribe will keep pushing until it happens so maybe it’s better to draw a thick red line and do it now.

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  146. @Art
    Israel has one year to attack Lebanon and Syria and take out those governments – after that they will be the underdogs.

    In a year Lebanon and Syria can resupply with advanced weapons and build defenses – whereas Israel has today what it will have next year.

    Think Peace --- Art

    p.s. Saudi war making is a joke – other than a few low number special groups – they have no fighters - the average Saudi has no desire to die for the royals.

    Israel has one year to attack Lebanon and Syria and take out those governments – after that they will be the underdogs.

    You have a point. I am not sure how long but you do have a point–it is a race. After today’s news from Russia it becomes even more apparent, Israel loses US support in Med if push comes to shove. 3M22 Zirkon is officially operational now. Man, that changes the whole dynamics in Med.

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  147. @Ron Unz

    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia’s air defense systems and Russia’s air force in Syria in 60 minutes.
     
    Well, I should emphasize my complete lack of expertise in this topic, but aren't you ignoring something extremely important?

    Sure, Israel, with its hundreds of modern warplanes, could easily blast the small Russian expeditionary force in Syria. But couldn't the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation? Wasn't that the whole point of Andrei's very interesting article from a few weeks ago:

    http://www.unz.com/article/russia-the-800-pound-gorilla/

    And if the Russians decided to inflict a further strategic defeat, couldn't they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel's other local enemies? And if Israel thereby suddenly loses local military supremacy, its longterm outlook becomes quite grim.

    Basically, Russia is a really big country with enormous military productive capability. Meanwhile, Israel is a really small country with---as far as I know---very little productive capability of its own, requiring that of its increasingly-decrepit American client-state.

    Like I said, I'm no expert on this, but isn't this simple TAT-for-tit scenario pretty obvious?...

    Agree, Ron. Moreover, today Russia officially announced hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon being operational–that changes dynamics in Mediterranean completely, I mean radically. We knew that it was coming, now it is here. It is, without exaggeration, a death knell for US Navy’s Carrier Battle Groups in Med (and elsewhere).

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    • Replies: @Anon
    http://katehon.com/sites/default/files/3m22_zircon_1.jpg
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  148. @utu
    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    "the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria."
     
    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker's commentariat My point was that Russia's forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can't afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel's AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei's articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei's article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

    Remember about all that nice stand off Russian capability. I have serious doubt it will be left unused if there will be any sign of Israeli large scale attack. All Israeli bases and airports are known. This capability can be used as swiftly against American or Israeli assets. Andrei also mentioned EW capabilities and if S200 could see F35… I expect no crazy moves from Israel. They are not suicidal.

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    • Replies: @Avery
    { S200 could see F35… }

    Serbs shot down an F-117 "stealth" fighter during NATO's attack and bombing campaign on Yugoslavia in 1999. The guy who figured out how to do it talked about it a little in a Youtube interview, but did not reveal the secret.

    No doubt, Russians talked to him and learned the method, if they didn't know already.
    , @Anon
    It is a blessing that Israel has so many former Soviet Jews who have a better grasp of reality than the pampered ziocons.
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  149. @utu
    couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    How much damage can cruise missiles do with conventional payloads? The US Navy has 3500 cruise missiles. Each can carry 450kg payload. This is 1575 tons. In Feb 1945 the total tonnage dropped on Dresden was 3900 tons of high-explosive bombs and incendiary devices. Still 1575 tonnes is a lot of damage. But you can do it only once.

    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?

    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?

    If you read recent (couple of weeks ago–Day of Military Acceptance) report (transcript) by First Deputy Defense Minister Borisov to Putin and Shoigu, he was very specific in one sense. I quote him: “more than 30 times since 2014″, this is how many fold the arsenal of stand-off weaponry increased. The logical question, of course, is 30 times WHAT number? I can tell you only one thing for sure–that in 2014 the number was either very high dozens (tens) or very low hundreds (150-200 etc.), now multiply it by 30 and you will at least get the magnitude. So, in low thousands.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    It is just in 3 years. If things continue at similar pace there will be very serious both quality and quantatively arsenal in another 3 years. Looks like time to throw some tantrums.
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  150. Avery says:
    @Sergey Krieger
    Remember about all that nice stand off Russian capability. I have serious doubt it will be left unused if there will be any sign of Israeli large scale attack. All Israeli bases and airports are known. This capability can be used as swiftly against American or Israeli assets. Andrei also mentioned EW capabilities and if S200 could see F35... I expect no crazy moves from Israel. They are not suicidal.

    { S200 could see F35… }

    Serbs shot down an F-117 “stealth” fighter during NATO’s attack and bombing campaign on Yugoslavia in 1999. The guy who figured out how to do it talked about it a little in a Youtube interview, but did not reveal the secret.

    No doubt, Russians talked to him and learned the method, if they didn’t know already.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Greasy William
    Talked to him? He explained it in detail directly to the western press.
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  151. @nsa
    The despised Deplorables morphed into beloved Deployables in service of the maniacal Jooies. "Thank you for your service".....suckers.

    The despised Deplorables morphed into beloved Deployables

    This is really good. Literature wise. I need to steal it;-)

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  152. @Andrei Martyanov

    How many cruise missile Russia has? Is it in thousands or just hundreds?
     
    If you read recent (couple of weeks ago--Day of Military Acceptance) report (transcript) by First Deputy Defense Minister Borisov to Putin and Shoigu, he was very specific in one sense. I quote him: "more than 30 times since 2014", this is how many fold the arsenal of stand-off weaponry increased. The logical question, of course, is 30 times WHAT number? I can tell you only one thing for sure--that in 2014 the number was either very high dozens (tens) or very low hundreds (150-200 etc.), now multiply it by 30 and you will at least get the magnitude. So, in low thousands.

    It is just in 3 years. If things continue at similar pace there will be very serious both quality and quantatively arsenal in another 3 years. Looks like time to throw some tantrums.

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    Looks like time to throw some tantrums.
     
    Oh, it is already happening. As an example, yesterday Gaidar's Institute (you know a bunch of grants' sucking morons) "established" that current Russian economic model is a dead-end. LOL. They obviously forgot their own "glorious" record.
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  153. @Sergey Krieger
    It is just in 3 years. If things continue at similar pace there will be very serious both quality and quantatively arsenal in another 3 years. Looks like time to throw some tantrums.

    Looks like time to throw some tantrums.

    Oh, it is already happening. As an example, yesterday Gaidar’s Institute (you know a bunch of grants’ sucking morons) “established” that current Russian economic model is a dead-end. LOL. They obviously forgot their own “glorious” record.

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    • Replies: @Greasy William
    hmm... I'm somewhat intrigued.

    How is the "Russian economic model" any different from the western one? To me they appear to be the same. Can you elaborate on this further?
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  154. @Avery
    { S200 could see F35… }

    Serbs shot down an F-117 "stealth" fighter during NATO's attack and bombing campaign on Yugoslavia in 1999. The guy who figured out how to do it talked about it a little in a Youtube interview, but did not reveal the secret.

    No doubt, Russians talked to him and learned the method, if they didn't know already.

    Talked to him? He explained it in detail directly to the western press.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Avery
    {Talked to him?}

    No: did you?

    {He explained it in detail directly to the western press.}

    OK, I believe you: post the Youtube vid where he "explained it in detail".
    Then I'll believe you more.

    The only interview vid I know of with the commander of the missile battalion Zoltan Dani, he says "We had one small technical innovation that under our assumption, should allow easier detection of stealth-technology aircraft".

    That's all the "detail" he gave.

    Over to you.

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  155. @Andrei Martyanov

    Looks like time to throw some tantrums.
     
    Oh, it is already happening. As an example, yesterday Gaidar's Institute (you know a bunch of grants' sucking morons) "established" that current Russian economic model is a dead-end. LOL. They obviously forgot their own "glorious" record.

    hmm… I’m somewhat intrigued.

    How is the “Russian economic model” any different from the western one? To me they appear to be the same. Can you elaborate on this further?

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    How is the “Russian economic model” any different from the western one?
     
    Read this, may help to understand.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/there-is-no-such-thing-as-free-trade/

    In other words, economic nationalism with state owning main strategic resources and industries.
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  156. Ya, I fondly remember January 2, 1992 and giant sucking sound of life savings and money abandoning people’s pockets and their further experimentation upon Soviet citizenry. I would love to see them hanging eventually. But considering success of what has been going in those strategic industries I wonder why to stop there and not to spread it far and wide. Those Gaidarists would love to see Russia taking every cianid pill from “partners”. I still cannot get why they are there.

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    • Agree: Andrei Martyanov
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  157. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    The reason Russians there do not even try to shoot at Israeli aircraft is purely political.
     
    Of course. No other answer is possible.

    Russia's enemy is ISIS (and fanaticism generally).
    Russia's longer term interest is to bring MENA into the Multipolar Order without triggering a regional war. Shooting down IDF planes or retaliating may or may not trigger a response from the USM, but it will certainly complicate matters.

    Russia’s longer term interest is to bring MENA into the Multipolar Order without triggering a regional war. Shooting down IDF planes or retaliating may or may not trigger a response from the USM, but it will certainly complicate matters.

    Agree.
    That mess there is already complicated enough; adding more complications would just make no sense for Russia.

    And, having chaos in that region is exactly what The Empire wants.
    Or at least the Necoon part of it, according to Friedman.

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  158. peterAUS says:
    @utu
    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    "the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria."
     
    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker's commentariat My point was that Russia's forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can't afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel's AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei's articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei's article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

    Agree with a couple of exceptions:

    And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel.

    That’s too strong a statement I guess. The Big Three aren’t at anyone’s mercy. That’s what having thermonuclear ICMBs is all about.

    And, personally, I don’t see Israel (or anyone, for that matter) wiping out Russian contingent in Syria.

    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    Hassling them, making their life difficult, “hit and run” tactics and such, yes, of course. From “incidents” to IEDs, assassinations, small raids etc.

    But large scale attack on them…well…say….with the same probability as an asteroid crashing in Syria.

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    • Replies: @utu
    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia's amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia's technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia's alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.
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  159. @Mikel
    Andrei,

    The way international politics stand right now, I wouldn't mind the Russians taking the technological lead and forcing the West to stop their silly interventionist activities around the world. In fact, I am still open to the possibility that Russia is making all those big technological advances one hears about.

    But perhaps you should consider the idea that you are actually doing a disservice to the cause of the Russian technological superiority.

    In this reply of yours all I can see is how you throw some technical terms to a hardly coherent rant that in no way addresses the fact that the Syrians are incapable of defending their air space, even with a target system integrated to the Russian one. Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220, you somehow conclude that this is proof of "horrible news" for the Israeli air technology (??).

    Russia is NOT the global leader in the processing of large arrays of data (Fourier transforms indeed and regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, complex econometric,...). This is a field where huge amounts of money are at stake and the global leaders are most definitely in Silicon Valley.

    That you take a question to one of your assertions like an attack to your country probably reveals some problem of a personal/psychological nature. But I'm also beginning to doubt how good those Azerbaijani academies are if they fail to teach how to convey simple explanations. I mean, Sam J. above has made a much more convincing case of the probable situation without using any obfuscating jargon or counterproductive personal attacks.

    Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220

    This isn’t even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?

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    • Replies: @Mikel

    This isn’t even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?
     
    According to the Syrians themselves, Israel keeps attacking their territory from the air. As I said above, I don't know if this is considered full penetration or simple abuse in military terms but presumably Syrian and Lebanese soldiers and materiel are being destroyed in the intercourse.

    The claim that the Syrians defend their airspace with S-200/S-220 Russian systems is Martyanov's, not mine.

    So I have no idea what your objection is.
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  160. peterAUS says:
    @Miro23

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support .
     
    International silence or active support for Middle east wars is hard to get. They had to organize the 9/11 deception to get support for the destruction of Iraq. They also had to fully mobilize their press behind the fakery of 9/11 (including WMD).

    If the US is the key player here (Israel is not going to fight Iran without the US doing the heavy lifting, and Saudi Arabia is militarily irrelevant), then the problem faced by the Israel/US/Saudi alliance is that Iran/Syria/Russia are trying hard not to be provoked while steadily winning on the ground.

    Also, 2017 is not 2001. The US public have seen the results of Middle East wars, they've been put in debt for $ Trillions to pay for these adventures, and there's an unprecedented lack of trust in the MSM. Trump was partly elected on a platform of "No more ME wars".

    But taking Iran as the principal target, a False Flag fabrication against Israel or Saudi Arabia wouldn't be enough to draw the US into this war. It would have to involve a major Zio organized attack on the US itself ( same as 9/11) or something like framing Iran for the sinking a US aircraft carrier (USS Liberty replay).

    Then there's the Russia aspect, the financial cost, the political side and the nature of the war.

    Russia wouldn't risk a nuclear conflict for Iran - even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it's probably safe to count them out.

    The US economy probably couldn't support another $ Trillion ME war - this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent. It would involve higher oil prices, the potential for spreading into Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and it would certainly alienate Russia and China (they have big investments in Iran). In short, a complicated war that could collapse a fragile US financial system.

    On the political side, Trump got elected on "No more ME wars", but a major False Flag would counter act this for a while, giving him the opportunity to show "leadership" and get the enthusiastic support of the US Zionists and the MSM.

    As for the war itself, it wouldn't be a ground war. Iran is too far away, the logistics are impossible, the country is too large, and the US just doesn't have the military capability for occupation - let alone the political will. The leaves the destruction of the Iran from the air and the question of air-defense , something that the Iranians have been working on upgrading.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.

    The US economy probably couldn’t support another $ Trillion ME war – this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent.

    Well…that is the element I’ve been trying to get some more info about, with zero success.

    In simple words: war is good for business.

    A bit longer: could a decent war with Iran rejuvenate industrial base in Trump base states? Bring those industries back and create jobs for “America firsters”.
    If yes, well…..all the rest is easy……..

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    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    War is not and never has been good for business. How could it be? It is nothing but one massive expense that consumes and destroys capital.

    If there is one thing you can be entirely certain of, it is that a war with Iran would break America's already feeble and debt-ridden economy, not to mention what it would do to world oil markets.
    , @L.K
    Troll peterAus: "In simple words: war is good for business."

    More BS from our little warmongering Bullshitter...

    War Prosperity: The Fallacy that Won’t Die
    By Robert Higgs | February 6, 2003
    Submitted to The Wall Street Journal
    http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=442

    Economists DESTROY the Myth that War Is Good for the Economy
    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/06/top-experts-war-bad-economy.html

    https://www.amazon.com/Depression-War-Cold-Challenging-Independent/dp/1598130293/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1508439496&sr=8-3&keywords=Robert+Higgs
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  161. Avery says:
    @Greasy William
    Talked to him? He explained it in detail directly to the western press.

    {Talked to him?}

    No: did you?

    {He explained it in detail directly to the western press.}

    OK, I believe you: post the Youtube vid where he “explained it in detail”.
    Then I’ll believe you more.

    The only interview vid I know of with the commander of the missile battalion Zoltan Dani, he says “We had one small technical innovation that under our assumption, should allow easier detection of stealth-technology aircraft”.

    That’s all the “detail” he gave.

    Over to you.

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    • Replies: @Kiza
    The most believable story is that "the small technical innovation" was a new Czech passive radar called Tamara (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamara_passive_sensor), which uses ionospheric radio reflections to detect fast flying objects. I do not claim to understand the physics of it, but any plane including a "stealth" one would appear as a dark fast moving smear on a very bright ionospheric background. This is neither a high resolution observation nor a tracking radar capture, thus to shoot the "stealth" down they used multiple missiles in a hand-guided mode. This is opposed to the normal tracking active radar, which illuminates the plane which the launched AA missile hones in on.

    Why the story of a passive radar is most believable - because a NATO plane were always carrying radar-honing HARM missiles with every group sortie and turning on any active (radiating) radar would have resulted in its destruction, which happened with one Serbian air-defense unit which turned on a tracking active radar. HARM does not work with passive radar because there is no radio emission to hone in on.

    Unlike the Iraqis, but based on the Gulf War 1 Iraqi experience, the Serbians did not turn on their active air-defense radars when the NATO bombing started, which had two outcomes:
    1) few NATO/US airforce planes were shot down, but
    2) the NATO/US airforce operated under a constant potential threat and always had to be on a lookout and to fly many support planes - large groups of planes with only a few bomber, which made such flying cumbersome and expensive.

    The whole NATO bombing of Serbia showed how successful a military relatively similar to the Russian but with 30-40 year old military technology could be against NATO. Serbia capitulated a delivered its Kosovo to NATO not because NATO destroyed Serbian military then because NATO started openly and frequently targeting civilians: TV station, passenger train, bridge full of civilians on a market day, hospitals and schools (ooups, just a collateral) and promised even carpet bombing. After almost three months of bombing with no chance of help coming from anywhere (completely surrounded by NATO vassals) they gave up.

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  162. @peterAUS

    The US economy probably couldn’t support another $ Trillion ME war – this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent.
     
    Well...that is the element I've been trying to get some more info about, with zero success.

    In simple words: war is good for business.

    A bit longer: could a decent war with Iran rejuvenate industrial base in Trump base states? Bring those industries back and create jobs for "America firsters".
    If yes, well.....all the rest is easy........

    War is not and never has been good for business. How could it be? It is nothing but one massive expense that consumes and destroys capital.

    If there is one thing you can be entirely certain of, it is that a war with Iran would break America’s already feeble and debt-ridden economy, not to mention what it would do to world oil markets.

    Read More
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  163. utu says:
    @peterAUS
    Agree with a couple of exceptions:

    And Russia can’t afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel.
     
    That's too strong a statement I guess. The Big Three aren't at anyone's mercy. That's what having thermonuclear ICMBs is all about.

    And, personally, I don't see Israel (or anyone, for that matter) wiping out Russian contingent in Syria.

    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    Hassling them, making their life difficult, "hit and run" tactics and such, yes, of course. From "incidents" to IEDs, assassinations, small raids etc.

    But large scale attack on them...well...say....with the same probability as an asteroid crashing in Syria.

    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia’s amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia’s technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia’s alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.

    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Couldn't agree more, actually.

    Now....get ready for some "education" here.
    Good luck.
    , @Andrei Martyanov

    Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia’s technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out.
     
    I hope you understand that you have no a single qualification to pass any competent judgement on any issue you are trying to push despite your BS called out not by me only. I understand you have personal issues but even what is marked in bold shows how your gallbladder is in overdrive mode. Just calm down and relax--it is not going to be as you dream about it. I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn't mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?
    , @Erebus

    It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia’s alleged Wunderwaffen.
     
    To be sure, politics drives all inter-nation action. The USA's, and Israel's geo-political interests and, indeed imperatives in the region, as widely discussed here at unz, have been thwarted. Ergo, both countries have every (repeat: every) political reason imaginable to defend those interests militarily, and little if any political reason to relinquish those interests.

    They were thwarted by Russia's intervention in their regime-change operations in Syria. That operation was the next critical stage of a grander, multi-decade strategy that would see a "re-drawing" of the map of the M.E. into which they've invested enormous political, military, and financial capital. To give scale to the importance they gave to Syrian regime change, the Qatari ex-PM gave a figure of >$150B having been invested in "Assad Must Go!". All of that is now wheels-up and smoking in the ditch.

    The 4+1 coalition's success in Syria, and it's emergence as a potent axis of power in engineering that success have re-drawn (or are in process of re-drawing) the M.E. in a totally different, indeed antithetical form to that envisaged by the US, Israel and its satraps. It's a massive geo-political FAIL.

    If...

    ... the reason for what we see on the ground (is not) Russia’s amazing technical capabilities.
     
    ... what is it?

    I'm all ears, because I can't see what else stayed their hand in the face of their geo-political losses. Losses, by the way, from which they are unlikely to recover, geo-politically speaking. If all it took was swarming some missiles and planes "for 60 minutes", why did they stand down and allow this axis to emerge?
    , @Anon
    "To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. "
    But your cognizance is apparently flowed; it lacks the logic dictated by the given context.
    By the way, your writing style is pompous.
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  164. Mikel says:
    @Cloak And Dagger

    I’m having difficulty seeing how that would work logistically unless Israel provided the base for the attack
     
    You are correct - with the changing facts on the ground like Turkey abandoning NATO imminently, and more importantly, Syrian victory over the empire-assisted ISIS has made this scenario implausible.

    Israel would love for the Saudis to attack Lebanon and lose there, but that is not going to happen unless MBS is completely insane. The Houthis in Yemen appear to be making their own missiles, and it is only a matter of time before Riyadh has to deal with a rainstorm from them, unless the Saudis can bring the war on Yemen to a speedy close - something I bet they desire to do without losing face.

    Meanwhile, attacking Lebanon would be a total disaster for the Saudis. The Hezbollah is now a battle-hardened force and far exceeds the might of the Saudis, despite their US weaponry. In fact, I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez. The IDF is still smarting from their thrashing from them in the 2006 war, and the the Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments. Here is a video commenting on how Hezbollah's victory was total:

    https://youtu.be/b7s5lnjXR5s

    The best laid plans of mice and men...

    Israel was counting on the decimation of the Shia crescent into scores of bantustans once Assad was deposed - but that didn't happen - and the Shia crescent is not only victorious but stronger than ever. I doubt that Iran will enter directly into combat with Israel and will act through Hezbollah, but Syria is expected to be very involved and will have its sights on the Golan Heights.

    I think Israel would be crazy to attack Lebanon. Currently they are targeting minor Syrian sites from Lebanese air space. The Hezbollah just announced that they are about to vacate Iraq now that ISIS has been defeated, and they will shortly vacate Syria. At that point, any Israeli aircraft over Lebanon will probably become a target. Were Israel to launch an offensive, it would quickly become an existential problem for that little country. Sanity would prevent them from attacking Lebanon themselves, and it it is highly unlikely that Trump will attack Lebanon either. If Lebanon is attacked by Israel, it will be because of desperation on the part of Netanyahu to distract from the criminal charges that are being brought against him. If he does that, he will take Israel down with him.

    Interesting times.

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez …/… Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.

    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn’t like this to become another “you haven’t studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don’t know what you’re talking about” kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    How Saudi's are supposed to get to Lebanon? Israel once was stopped by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has no intent of conquering Israel but it wants to effectively keep Israel out of Lebanon. Certainly Israel would like to have Hezbollah defeated and destroyed but not with their own hands. The project ISIS was supported by Israel. If it succeeded Hezbollah would be cut off from Iran's aid as there would no Assad regime anymore. And all kind of elements could move via Syria to Lebanon from Gulf sates. Fortunately Russia with relatively small investment was able to ruin these designs though most fighting on the ground was done by Syrians, Iranians and Hezbollah.
    , @peterAUS

    Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel
     
    Well, that clash would be really interesting to watch.

    Last time didn't work well for Israelis.

    It would be really interesting to see has anything been changed there since.

    I'd be careful about that "defeat" though. The word itself can have different meaning for different parties here.

    I ...guess....that for Israel victory would be "degrading Hezbollah combat capability" to a certain level.
    For Hezbollah victory would be "surviving the attack as a feasible political and military entity".

    So, when you think about it....both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.
    , @Cloak And Dagger

    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet.
     
    Besides the fact that ISIS has lost (except for those being transported out of the area by the US), ISIS was never alone -> ISIS was created and supported by Israel+US+Saudi. So, the above equation is a little different.

    In 2006, when Hezbollah was smaller, with less equipment and firepower, it routed Israel's onslaught of both aerial and land-based firepower and sent them scurrying with their tail between their legs as I have written elsewhere on UR.

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html
    PART 1: Winning the intelligence war


    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel's strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.

     

    Today, Hezbollah is battle-hardened, and with more manpower and modern firepower, with (allegedly) over 110,000 rockets aimed at Tel Aviv - capable of demolishing that tiny country within hours. More importantly, because of how Hezbollah compartmentalizes their security, there is little to no intelligence about the extent of the power or their plans, as demonstrated in 2006 (much better today). Meanwhile, as Alastair Crooke reports above, Hezbollah has completely penetrated Israeli intelligence and knows exactly what to defend against. Modern warfare, certainly asymmetric ones, are all about intelligence.

    I stand by my claim the Israel+Saudis are insufficient to overcome Lebanon, without even bringing Syria, Russia, Iran, and possibly Turkey into the equation. It is increasingly unlikely that we in the US will allow our government to attack Lebanon, just as we stopped Obama from directly attacking Syria, despite the Israel-firsters in congress.
    , @Anon
    "Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags.."
    You have ommited the well-known US/Israel' support of the ISIS ragtags. -- Why?
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  165. Mikel says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Even though the Israelis keep penetrating that air space and avoiding the S-200/S-220
     
    This isn't even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?

    This isn’t even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?

    According to the Syrians themselves, Israel keeps attacking their territory from the air. As I said above, I don’t know if this is considered full penetration or simple abuse in military terms but presumably Syrian and Lebanese soldiers and materiel are being destroyed in the intercourse.

    The claim that the Syrians defend their airspace with S-200/S-220 Russian systems is Martyanov’s, not mine.

    So I have no idea what your objection is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov

    The claim that the Syrians defend their airspace with S-200/S-220 Russian systems is Martyanov’s, not mine.
     
    Don't use S-220--it was my typo and I apologize for not fixing it. I meant S-200. No such system exists as S-220. It is not the claim, S-200 is officially in service with Syria's Air Defense Forces.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Air_Defense_Force
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  166. utu says:
    @Mikel

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez .../... Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.
     
    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don't seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn't like this to become another "you haven't studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don't know what you're talking about" kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.

    How Saudi’s are supposed to get to Lebanon? Israel once was stopped by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has no intent of conquering Israel but it wants to effectively keep Israel out of Lebanon. Certainly Israel would like to have Hezbollah defeated and destroyed but not with their own hands. The project ISIS was supported by Israel. If it succeeded Hezbollah would be cut off from Iran’s aid as there would no Assad regime anymore. And all kind of elements could move via Syria to Lebanon from Gulf sates. Fortunately Russia with relatively small investment was able to ruin these designs though most fighting on the ground was done by Syrians, Iranians and Hezbollah.

    Read More
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  167. peterAUS says:
    @utu
    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia's amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia's technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia's alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.

    Couldn’t agree more, actually.

    Now….get ready for some “education” here.
    Good luck.

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  168. @utu
    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia's amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia's technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia's alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.

    Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia’s technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out.

    I hope you understand that you have no a single qualification to pass any competent judgement on any issue you are trying to push despite your BS called out not by me only. I understand you have personal issues but even what is marked in bold shows how your gallbladder is in overdrive mode. Just calm down and relax–it is not going to be as you dream about it. I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn’t mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn’t mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?

    There is no ounce of Russophobia in me. I just do not buy your BS.
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  169. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez .../... Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.
     
    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don't seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn't like this to become another "you haven't studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don't know what you're talking about" kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.

    Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel

    Well, that clash would be really interesting to watch.

    Last time didn’t work well for Israelis.

    It would be really interesting to see has anything been changed there since.

    I’d be careful about that “defeat” though. The word itself can have different meaning for different parties here.

    I …guess….that for Israel victory would be “degrading Hezbollah combat capability” to a certain level.
    For Hezbollah victory would be “surviving the attack as a feasible political and military entity”.

    So, when you think about it….both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel

    both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.
     
    Exactly. But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn't ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition and the missiles stopped falling over its northern cities anyway so they retreated. Some people may be arriving at the wrong conclusions from that defeat. Or at least that's what my non-expert common sense leads me to believe. Not that I care too much. I'm quite willing to accept convincing arguments against my beliefs on this particular matter.
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  170. @Greasy William
    hmm... I'm somewhat intrigued.

    How is the "Russian economic model" any different from the western one? To me they appear to be the same. Can you elaborate on this further?

    How is the “Russian economic model” any different from the western one?

    Read this, may help to understand.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/there-is-no-such-thing-as-free-trade/

    In other words, economic nationalism with state owning main strategic resources and industries.

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  171. @Mikel

    This isn’t even happening. Are you just making stuff up now?
     
    According to the Syrians themselves, Israel keeps attacking their territory from the air. As I said above, I don't know if this is considered full penetration or simple abuse in military terms but presumably Syrian and Lebanese soldiers and materiel are being destroyed in the intercourse.

    The claim that the Syrians defend their airspace with S-200/S-220 Russian systems is Martyanov's, not mine.

    So I have no idea what your objection is.

    The claim that the Syrians defend their airspace with S-200/S-220 Russian systems is Martyanov’s, not mine.

    Don’t use S-220–it was my typo and I apologize for not fixing it. I meant S-200. No such system exists as S-220. It is not the claim, S-200 is officially in service with Syria’s Air Defense Forces.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Air_Defense_Force

    Read More
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  172. Mikel says:
    @peterAUS

    Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel
     
    Well, that clash would be really interesting to watch.

    Last time didn't work well for Israelis.

    It would be really interesting to see has anything been changed there since.

    I'd be careful about that "defeat" though. The word itself can have different meaning for different parties here.

    I ...guess....that for Israel victory would be "degrading Hezbollah combat capability" to a certain level.
    For Hezbollah victory would be "surviving the attack as a feasible political and military entity".

    So, when you think about it....both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.

    both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.

    Exactly. But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn’t ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition and the missiles stopped falling over its northern cities anyway so they retreated. Some people may be arriving at the wrong conclusions from that defeat. Or at least that’s what my non-expert common sense leads me to believe. Not that I care too much. I’m quite willing to accept convincing arguments against my beliefs on this particular matter.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger

    But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn’t ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition
     
    Rubbish, as I have cited above,

    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel’s strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.
     
    Do read Alastair Crookes excellent 3-part analysis of the 2006 war:
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    It may prove to be very educational.
    , @peterAUS
    Haha...you are onto something here.

    My 2 cents:
    It was draw ...of sort.

    But...and in today's world it is much more important...they lost "perception wise".

    Their physical loses were more than they anticipated and their tactics didn't work as expected. That made them "losing side".
    It was supposed to be sort of repetition of US drive to Kabul.
    Didn't work that way, obviously.
    So, loss......

    More importantly, reading IDF analysis of that clash and, even more importantly recommendations for improvement, they also didn't see it as a sterling performance they expected.
    Oh...on a side note: how many people offering their strong feelings about that clash and Israel/Hezbollah topic read that document?

    I'd say....two...three tops.

    Now, one thing here, if I may.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here. I repeat....one of top professionals here.
    There are a couple of ex-officers here posting....officers...not NCOs or troopers.
    There are couple of ...say....academics/scientists/heavy hobbyist too....
    A couple only.
    The rest are just fanboys.....

    Andrey is one of a couple of persons here who actually use proper...I repeat...proper, methodology when talking about things he talks about.
    And he does that the most professionally.
    I'd suggest keeping that in mind.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology. He operates as a very good, say, Corps, staff officer. But...and there is where we disagree.......I do not believe his input is correct.
    That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    Say....the brigade is at the level 8. A brigade at level 8 can do this ...that.
    True.
    We are going to employ the brigade there and that way because it is at level 8.
    Correct.

    But....how do you really know they are at the level 8?
    Have YOU seen them...or you just read a report sent by their own CiC element?
    Are you sure that their CiC element isn't...how to put it.."embellishing" things a bit?
    You know...career wise?

    So....when Andrey says: that weapon system is such and such, knowing something about Russian armed forces organizational culture and Russian society in general....well.....I just don't buy it, most of the time.
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  173. @Mikel

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez .../... Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.
     
    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don't seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn't like this to become another "you haven't studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don't know what you're talking about" kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.

    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet.

    Besides the fact that ISIS has lost (except for those being transported out of the area by the US), ISIS was never alone -> ISIS was created and supported by Israel+US+Saudi. So, the above equation is a little different.

    In 2006, when Hezbollah was smaller, with less equipment and firepower, it routed Israel’s onslaught of both aerial and land-based firepower and sent them scurrying with their tail between their legs as I have written elsewhere on UR.

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    PART 1: Winning the intelligence war

    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel’s strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.

    Today, Hezbollah is battle-hardened, and with more manpower and modern firepower, with (allegedly) over 110,000 rockets aimed at Tel Aviv – capable of demolishing that tiny country within hours. More importantly, because of how Hezbollah compartmentalizes their security, there is little to no intelligence about the extent of the power or their plans, as demonstrated in 2006 (much better today). Meanwhile, as Alastair Crooke reports above, Hezbollah has completely penetrated Israeli intelligence and knows exactly what to defend against. Modern warfare, certainly asymmetric ones, are all about intelligence.

    I stand by my claim the Israel+Saudis are insufficient to overcome Lebanon, without even bringing Syria, Russia, Iran, and possibly Turkey into the equation. It is increasingly unlikely that we in the US will allow our government to attack Lebanon, just as we stopped Obama from directly attacking Syria, despite the Israel-firsters in congress.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Cloak And Dagger
    For those interested in reading the entire analysis (which seems to be disappearing from Google), here are the links I was able to find:

    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/12/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-1/
    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/19/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-2-winning-the-ground-war/
    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/19/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-3-the-political-war/

    Well worth reading in detail.
    , @L.K
    Former MI6, Alastair Crooke's series is one of the best and most reliable accounts of that war...
    From their report, in a few words:

    But by any accounting - whether in rockets, armored vehicles or numbers of dead and wounded - Hezbollah's fight against Israel must be accorded a decisive military and political victory. Even if it were otherwise (and it is clearly not), the full impact of Hezbollah's war with Israel over a period of 34 days in July and August has caused a political earthquake in the region.

     

    I agree with you that the israel-saudi combo cannot defeat Hezbollah.
    Fighting wise, it ain't much of a combo, since the Saudi military is a complete joke and bogged down in Yemen. The best the 2 could hope for would be to drag the ZUSA into it to fight for them.

    As for this Mikel person, he is either completely ignorant of the war in Syria or just another miserable troll. The stupidity of a comment such as the following is breathtaking:

    "Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet"

    As you mentioned ISIS was covertly created & supported by the ZUSA coalition. Furthermore, ISIS, in Syria, have been only one of several powerful Wahhabi/Salafist groups trying to overthrow the government.

    In fact, the most dangerous one in the more strategically important areas of Western Syria has been the Nusra coalition... but there are others, such as Jaysh al-Islam, etc.

    And ragtags? Ragtags are the Taliban, few in numbers, under-funded and lightly armed, a force that controls more than half of Afghanistan in a war which began in 2001 & fighting against the supposed best military in the world... as per some neocons, the best of all time, gasp.

    The salafist militants in Syria were well funded by the US coalition, well armed( including heavy weapons) and numerous. Syria totally surrounded by hostile forces with militant bases in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, even in Lebanon(both Nusra and ISIS set up bases in Sunni areas with help from the Hariri people)...

    Plus, "Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran" is a very false way to depict this coalition...
    Russian force = very small
    Iranian proper = very small
    Iranian backed forces in Syria = more sizable but not that large.
    For instance, Hezbollah had to keep the bulk of its forces in Lebanon to defend against Israel and to keep an eye on Nusra & ISIS inside sunni areas of lebanon such as Arsal, where not long ago Hezbollah routed the Wahhabis eliminating them once and for all from Lebanon, to the consternation of Israel-ZUSA-Saudi A.
    Iran also had to hastily arm , train & for a while advise the PMU, to avoid collapse of Iraq to ISIS, since a lot of the US trained Iraqi army collapsed.

    Only a fool or a liar could presume that defeating the strong jihadi forces in Syria and Iraq under such conditions, could be an easy task. When all things are properly considered, the Syrian-Russia-Iran-Hezb forces have done a remarkable job.
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  174. @Mikel

    both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.
     
    Exactly. But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn't ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition and the missiles stopped falling over its northern cities anyway so they retreated. Some people may be arriving at the wrong conclusions from that defeat. Or at least that's what my non-expert common sense leads me to believe. Not that I care too much. I'm quite willing to accept convincing arguments against my beliefs on this particular matter.

    But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn’t ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition

    Rubbish, as I have cited above,

    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel’s strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.

    Do read Alastair Crookes excellent 3-part analysis of the 2006 war:

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html

    It may prove to be very educational.

    Read More
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  175. @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    How many aimed at US?

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  176. utu says:
    @Andrei Martyanov

    Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia’s technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out.
     
    I hope you understand that you have no a single qualification to pass any competent judgement on any issue you are trying to push despite your BS called out not by me only. I understand you have personal issues but even what is marked in bold shows how your gallbladder is in overdrive mode. Just calm down and relax--it is not going to be as you dream about it. I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn't mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?

    I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn’t mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?

    There is no ounce of Russophobia in me. I just do not buy your BS.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    "utu" - your posts are funny. Andrei Martyanov' post are expertly. Grow up.
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  177. @Cloak And Dagger

    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet.
     
    Besides the fact that ISIS has lost (except for those being transported out of the area by the US), ISIS was never alone -> ISIS was created and supported by Israel+US+Saudi. So, the above equation is a little different.

    In 2006, when Hezbollah was smaller, with less equipment and firepower, it routed Israel's onslaught of both aerial and land-based firepower and sent them scurrying with their tail between their legs as I have written elsewhere on UR.

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html
    PART 1: Winning the intelligence war


    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel's strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.

     

    Today, Hezbollah is battle-hardened, and with more manpower and modern firepower, with (allegedly) over 110,000 rockets aimed at Tel Aviv - capable of demolishing that tiny country within hours. More importantly, because of how Hezbollah compartmentalizes their security, there is little to no intelligence about the extent of the power or their plans, as demonstrated in 2006 (much better today). Meanwhile, as Alastair Crooke reports above, Hezbollah has completely penetrated Israeli intelligence and knows exactly what to defend against. Modern warfare, certainly asymmetric ones, are all about intelligence.

    I stand by my claim the Israel+Saudis are insufficient to overcome Lebanon, without even bringing Syria, Russia, Iran, and possibly Turkey into the equation. It is increasingly unlikely that we in the US will allow our government to attack Lebanon, just as we stopped Obama from directly attacking Syria, despite the Israel-firsters in congress.
    Read More
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Good reading.

    Civilian/mass consumption approach, but, good....

    That IDF analysis is, surprisingly enough, very close to that.

    The thing is, though.....maybe IDF learnt from those, glaring, mistakes?

    When one thinks about it...Air Force and politicians put the Army in a losing position.

    Next time........
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  178. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel

    both parties can get into clash there, do a bit of damage to each other, and claim victory.
     
    Exactly. But is that not pretty much what happened in 2006? Israel suffered a tactical defeat but it wasn't ready to escalate things much further due to strong international opposition and the missiles stopped falling over its northern cities anyway so they retreated. Some people may be arriving at the wrong conclusions from that defeat. Or at least that's what my non-expert common sense leads me to believe. Not that I care too much. I'm quite willing to accept convincing arguments against my beliefs on this particular matter.

    Haha…you are onto something here.

    My 2 cents:
    It was draw …of sort.

    But…and in today’s world it is much more important…they lost “perception wise”.

    Their physical loses were more than they anticipated and their tactics didn’t work as expected. That made them “losing side”.
    It was supposed to be sort of repetition of US drive to Kabul.
    Didn’t work that way, obviously.
    So, loss……

    More importantly, reading IDF analysis of that clash and, even more importantly recommendations for improvement, they also didn’t see it as a sterling performance they expected.
    Oh…on a side note: how many people offering their strong feelings about that clash and Israel/Hezbollah topic read that document?

    I’d say….two…three tops.

    Now, one thing here, if I may.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here. I repeat….one of top professionals here.
    There are a couple of ex-officers here posting….officers…not NCOs or troopers.
    There are couple of …say….academics/scientists/heavy hobbyist too….
    A couple only.
    The rest are just fanboys…..

    Andrey is one of a couple of persons here who actually use proper…I repeat…proper, methodology when talking about things he talks about.
    And he does that the most professionally.
    I’d suggest keeping that in mind.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology. He operates as a very good, say, Corps, staff officer. But…and there is where we disagree…….I do not believe his input is correct.
    That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    Say….the brigade is at the level 8. A brigade at level 8 can do this …that.
    True.
    We are going to employ the brigade there and that way because it is at level 8.
    Correct.

    But….how do you really know they are at the level 8?
    Have YOU seen them…or you just read a report sent by their own CiC element?
    Are you sure that their CiC element isn’t…how to put it..”embellishing” things a bit?
    You know…career wise?

    So….when Andrey says: that weapon system is such and such, knowing something about Russian armed forces organizational culture and Russian society in general….well…..I just don’t buy it, most of the time.

    Read More
    • Replies: @L.K
    You are so full of shit, who do you think you impress with your nonsense?

    The IDF lost the war because it did NOT reach ANY of their objectives.

    They lost from the tactical to the strategic/ political levels. It's that simple.

    Your heroes failed to even take small villages a few hundred meters from the border.
    Like @ Ayta ash Shab, where a few dozen Hezb troopers withstood all israeli attacks.
    The following Hezbollah soldier was interviewed at the war's end in the ruins of the village;
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZNViirWTnk
    @2:35, The trooper says:
    "We have seen them(israeli soldiers) fleeing like sheep. And it may be that the sheep by the end got used to the sound of bombing and wasn't affected by it anymore. While the israeli soldier, you could hear his screams from hundreds of meters away when he was targeted
    , @Mikel

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here.
     
    I am not qualified to assess that statement. But in my two fields of expertise Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.

    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.
    , @Erebus

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology... That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.
     
    That's fair enough, but just as your experience is with (presumably) Western types, or last generation Russian types, you may perhaps have extrapolated your experience in error.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because "you can't trust the Russian numbers". Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are "Unreliable", what are the West's numbers? "Delusional" and "Hallucinogenic" come to mind, but I think it's worse.

    Given the West's military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are "Ideological", and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we've seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West's upper echelons knew that too.

    And it ain't just military. Russia's spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same "combat efficiency", to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West's military-diplomatic attempt to "re-draw the M.E." look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West's Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,... to fall one by one off the options list. If "the input/numbers" had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.

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  179. peterAUS says:
    @Cloak And Dagger
    For those interested in reading the entire analysis (which seems to be disappearing from Google), here are the links I was able to find:

    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/12/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-1/
    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/19/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-2-winning-the-ground-war/
    https://justice4lebanon.wordpress.com/2006/10/19/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-part-3-the-political-war/

    Well worth reading in detail.

    Good reading.

    Civilian/mass consumption approach, but, good….

    That IDF analysis is, surprisingly enough, very close to that.

    The thing is, though…..maybe IDF learnt from those, glaring, mistakes?

    When one thinks about it…Air Force and politicians put the Army in a losing position.

    Next time……..

    Read More
    • Replies: @L.K
    If there is a next time, the 'idf' will lose again.

    2006 was not the IDF first failure against Hezbollah. That happened in 2000, when Hezbollah ended the israeli occupation in Lebanon, forcing them to withdraw and routing their proxy SLA.

    Nor does it appear that the IDF improved much since their 2006 defeat either. Hezbollah has grown much larger & more sophisticated and experienced through its involvement in Syria. To your heroes consternation, a war meant to weaken them, had the opposite effect.

    In 2014, the idf again attacked Hamas in Gaza. Hamas is many orders of magnitude weaker than Hezbollah and in much more precarious situation.

    Former zionist terrorist and israeli soldier, Uri Avnery, had this to say about the last israeli attack on Gaza;
    AFTER 29 DAYS of fighting (until now), who has won?


    It is, of course, much too early to draw final conclusions. The ceasefire has blown up. It will take months and years to sum up all the consequences. But Israeli popular wisdom has already drawn its own conclusions: it is a draw.
    [...]
    WHEN A guerrilla organization with at most 10,000 fighters achieves a draw with one of the mightiest armies in the world[trust me Uri, it is not], equipped with the most ultra-modern weapons, that is by itself a kind of victory.
    Hamas has not only shown a lot of courage during the fighting, but also surprising ingenuity in preparing for this campaign. It is still standing upright.
    ...
    The Israeli army, on the other hand, has shown very little imagination. It was quite unprepared for the maze of tunnels.
    ...
    Indeed, as a commentator dared to write, the army has become a heavy, cumbersome, conservative machine. It followed its established routine, without employing special forces. Its doctrine was, in essence, to pound the civilian population into submission, causing as much killing and destruction as possible, so as to deter the "resistance" as much and as long as possible
    .
    In Israel, the terrible pictures of death and destruction did not evoke compassion. On the contrary. People were proud of it.
     
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  180. L.K says:
    @peterAUS
    Well...I was actually more interested in why that push "Russia's technological advantage" here.
    Got my answer recently and sort of makes sense.
    The push, not the assumption, I mean.

    I don't buy that advantage.
    I mean, even if Russia does have that technological advantage (which I believe it does not) it wouldn't make any difference.

    Any serious clash between US and Russia, advantage or not, would escalate into nuclear.

    As for that technology being available to lesser players as Iran and/or North Korea, it isn't.
    So, bottom line, all this is just.......well, like those endless debates about "M-16 vs AK-47", "T-34 vs Panther", "Bismarck vs ship this/that" and such.

    My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such.....don't think it is as it looks.

    But, debating that again and again with Rusophiles around...nahh....

    I do remember similar debates before the fall of Soviet Union.
    "Sovietophiles" believed in one thing, "Westerners" in another.
    Same now.

    Troll peterAu: “My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such…..don’t think it is as it looks.”

    Corruption, eh? How about it in the ZUSA, Troll?? No? Yes.
    Wastrels of Defense: How Congress Sabotages U.S. Security

    https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/159114938X/counterpunchmaga

    In this damning expose, a veteran senate defense advisor argues that since Sept 11, 2001, the conduct of the U.S. Congress has sunk to new depths and endangered the nation’s security. Winslow Wheeler draws on three decades of work with four prominent senators to tell in lively detail how members of Congress divert money from essential war-fighting accounts to pay for pork in their home states, cook the budget books to pursue personal agendas, and run for cover when confronted with tough defense issues. With meticulous documentation to support his claims, he contends that this behavior is not confined to one party or one political philosophy.

    Read More
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  181. L.K says:

    Mind-boggling corruption in the ZUSA’s “security” budget.

    America’s $1 Trillion National Security Budget
    by WINSLOW WHEELER
    MARCH 14, 2014

    The Pentagon’s current leadership and most on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees in Congress describe President Obama’s 2015 defense budget request as painfully austere, if not dangerously inadequate. The defense trade press is full of statements from generals, admirals and the other politicians from both political parties that there is not nearly enough money available to buy adequate amounts of new hardware, maintain current pay and benefits or provide even low amounts of training and equipment maintenance. As a result, they are looking for ways to relieve the Pentagon from its penury.

    Scarcity of money is not their problem. Pentagon costs, taken together with other known national security expenses for 2015, will exceed $1 Trillion.[...]

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/14/americas-1-trillion-national-security-budget/

    Winslow T. Wheeler is the director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Project on Government Oversight. Previously, he worked on national security issues for both Republican and Democratic senators and for the Government Accountability Office.

    Read More
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  182. L.K says:
    @peterAUS
    Haha...you are onto something here.

    My 2 cents:
    It was draw ...of sort.

    But...and in today's world it is much more important...they lost "perception wise".

    Their physical loses were more than they anticipated and their tactics didn't work as expected. That made them "losing side".
    It was supposed to be sort of repetition of US drive to Kabul.
    Didn't work that way, obviously.
    So, loss......

    More importantly, reading IDF analysis of that clash and, even more importantly recommendations for improvement, they also didn't see it as a sterling performance they expected.
    Oh...on a side note: how many people offering their strong feelings about that clash and Israel/Hezbollah topic read that document?

    I'd say....two...three tops.

    Now, one thing here, if I may.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here. I repeat....one of top professionals here.
    There are a couple of ex-officers here posting....officers...not NCOs or troopers.
    There are couple of ...say....academics/scientists/heavy hobbyist too....
    A couple only.
    The rest are just fanboys.....

    Andrey is one of a couple of persons here who actually use proper...I repeat...proper, methodology when talking about things he talks about.
    And he does that the most professionally.
    I'd suggest keeping that in mind.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology. He operates as a very good, say, Corps, staff officer. But...and there is where we disagree.......I do not believe his input is correct.
    That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    Say....the brigade is at the level 8. A brigade at level 8 can do this ...that.
    True.
    We are going to employ the brigade there and that way because it is at level 8.
    Correct.

    But....how do you really know they are at the level 8?
    Have YOU seen them...or you just read a report sent by their own CiC element?
    Are you sure that their CiC element isn't...how to put it.."embellishing" things a bit?
    You know...career wise?

    So....when Andrey says: that weapon system is such and such, knowing something about Russian armed forces organizational culture and Russian society in general....well.....I just don't buy it, most of the time.

    You are so full of shit, who do you think you impress with your nonsense?

    The IDF lost the war because it did NOT reach ANY of their objectives.

    They lost from the tactical to the strategic/ political levels. It’s that simple.

    Your heroes failed to even take small villages a few hundred meters from the border.
    Like @ Ayta ash Shab, where a few dozen Hezb troopers withstood all israeli attacks.
    The following Hezbollah soldier was interviewed at the war’s end in the ruins of the village;

    @2:35, The trooper says:
    We have seen them(israeli soldiers) fleeing like sheep. And it may be that the sheep by the end got used to the sound of bombing and wasn’t affected by it anymore. While the israeli soldier, you could hear his screams from hundreds of meters away when he was targeted

    Read More
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  183. L.K says:
    @peterAUS
    Good reading.

    Civilian/mass consumption approach, but, good....

    That IDF analysis is, surprisingly enough, very close to that.

    The thing is, though.....maybe IDF learnt from those, glaring, mistakes?

    When one thinks about it...Air Force and politicians put the Army in a losing position.

    Next time........

    If there is a next time, the ‘idf’ will lose again.

    2006 was not the IDF first failure against Hezbollah. That happened in 2000, when Hezbollah ended the israeli occupation in Lebanon, forcing them to withdraw and routing their proxy SLA.

    Nor does it appear that the IDF improved much since their 2006 defeat either. Hezbollah has grown much larger & more sophisticated and experienced through its involvement in Syria. To your heroes consternation, a war meant to weaken them, had the opposite effect.

    In 2014, the idf again attacked Hamas in Gaza. Hamas is many orders of magnitude weaker than Hezbollah and in much more precarious situation.

    Former zionist terrorist and israeli soldier, Uri Avnery, had this to say about the last israeli attack on Gaza;
    AFTER 29 DAYS of fighting (until now), who has won?

    It is, of course, much too early to draw final conclusions. The ceasefire has blown up. It will take months and years to sum up all the consequences. But Israeli popular wisdom has already drawn its own conclusions: it is a draw.
    [...]
    WHEN A guerrilla organization with at most 10,000 fighters achieves a draw with one of the mightiest armies in the world[trust me Uri, it is not], equipped with the most ultra-modern weapons, that is by itself a kind of victory.
    Hamas has not only shown a lot of courage during the fighting, but also surprising ingenuity in preparing for this campaign. It is still standing upright.

    The Israeli army, on the other hand, has shown very little imagination. It was quite unprepared for the maze of tunnels.

    Indeed, as a commentator dared to write, the army has become a heavy, cumbersome, conservative machine. It followed its established routine, without employing special forces. Its doctrine was, in essence, to pound the civilian population into submission, causing as much killing and destruction as possible, so as to deter the “resistance” as much and as long as possible
    .
    In Israel, the terrible pictures of death and destruction did not evoke compassion. On the contrary. People were proud of it.

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  184. Mikel says:
    @peterAUS
    Haha...you are onto something here.

    My 2 cents:
    It was draw ...of sort.

    But...and in today's world it is much more important...they lost "perception wise".

    Their physical loses were more than they anticipated and their tactics didn't work as expected. That made them "losing side".
    It was supposed to be sort of repetition of US drive to Kabul.
    Didn't work that way, obviously.
    So, loss......

    More importantly, reading IDF analysis of that clash and, even more importantly recommendations for improvement, they also didn't see it as a sterling performance they expected.
    Oh...on a side note: how many people offering their strong feelings about that clash and Israel/Hezbollah topic read that document?

    I'd say....two...three tops.

    Now, one thing here, if I may.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here. I repeat....one of top professionals here.
    There are a couple of ex-officers here posting....officers...not NCOs or troopers.
    There are couple of ...say....academics/scientists/heavy hobbyist too....
    A couple only.
    The rest are just fanboys.....

    Andrey is one of a couple of persons here who actually use proper...I repeat...proper, methodology when talking about things he talks about.
    And he does that the most professionally.
    I'd suggest keeping that in mind.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology. He operates as a very good, say, Corps, staff officer. But...and there is where we disagree.......I do not believe his input is correct.
    That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    Say....the brigade is at the level 8. A brigade at level 8 can do this ...that.
    True.
    We are going to employ the brigade there and that way because it is at level 8.
    Correct.

    But....how do you really know they are at the level 8?
    Have YOU seen them...or you just read a report sent by their own CiC element?
    Are you sure that their CiC element isn't...how to put it.."embellishing" things a bit?
    You know...career wise?

    So....when Andrey says: that weapon system is such and such, knowing something about Russian armed forces organizational culture and Russian society in general....well.....I just don't buy it, most of the time.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here.

    I am not qualified to assess that statement. But in my two fields of expertise Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.

    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.

    Read More
    • Agree: utu
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Haha.....this is good.

    Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.
     

    Well....I should've said "Russian top professional".
    There is a....peculiar....style.....of those types.
    People brought up in West have hard time tolerating it, let alone working, with them.
    But...still....they are experts in their fields.
    They are the product of the environment they talk about, they have extensive knowledge accumulated through years working in that very environment, and, equally important, contacts there on several levels.

    It's usual on Internet to reject all of a message because of a messenger.
    Free will.....


    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.
     
    Saker is in essence a civilian. He is not an ex-Soviet/Russian officer.
    So, that definitely makes his message more....readable....for civilians.
    Again...free will.

    As in any intelligence/analyst business, one gets information from a lot of resources and then makes his own opinion.
    One resource...10 %...another....3 %....another 15 %....etc.
    Wonders of Internet.
    Then, hopefully, contacts here and there.
    Then, own experience, knowledge...methodology.....time.....
    And, after all that one can be confident he/she has, say....85...90 % of truth.
    That's the top for any "Internet presence".
    Anything above that is a state secret, actually. Spilling that anywhere, let alone in public....well.....good luck with that.

    For this particular topic I'd say that 99 % of truth have only top guys in US/Russia/Israel leadership.

    Fanboys have it easy.
    They get latched to an authority figure and are always 100 % sure about the truth.
    Lucky them.

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  185. Erebus says:
    @utu
    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia's amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia's technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia's alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.

    It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia’s alleged Wunderwaffen.

    To be sure, politics drives all inter-nation action. The USA’s, and Israel’s geo-political interests and, indeed imperatives in the region, as widely discussed here at unz, have been thwarted. Ergo, both countries have every (repeat: every) political reason imaginable to defend those interests militarily, and little if any political reason to relinquish those interests.

    They were thwarted by Russia’s intervention in their regime-change operations in Syria. That operation was the next critical stage of a grander, multi-decade strategy that would see a “re-drawing” of the map of the M.E. into which they’ve invested enormous political, military, and financial capital. To give scale to the importance they gave to Syrian regime change, the Qatari ex-PM gave a figure of >$150B having been invested in “Assad Must Go!”. All of that is now wheels-up and smoking in the ditch.

    The 4+1 coalition’s success in Syria, and it’s emergence as a potent axis of power in engineering that success have re-drawn (or are in process of re-drawing) the M.E. in a totally different, indeed antithetical form to that envisaged by the US, Israel and its satraps. It’s a massive geo-political FAIL.

    If…

    … the reason for what we see on the ground (is not) Russia’s amazing technical capabilities.

    … what is it?

    I’m all ears, because I can’t see what else stayed their hand in the face of their geo-political losses. Losses, by the way, from which they are unlikely to recover, geo-politically speaking. If all it took was swarming some missiles and planes “for 60 minutes”, why did they stand down and allow this axis to emerge?

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    … what is it?

    It is very simple. The lack of political will in Obama administration to impose the no fly zone over Syria which they had opportunity to do on several occasions. Still in the summer 2015 it could have been done to preempt the build up of Russian base in Syria but for various reasons Obama had no will nor desire to do it however they thought of it and even Australia joined the "coalition" in late August 2015. But once Russia was in Syria the game has changed. Russia was not challenged in Syria militarily because of the weapons it had. Russia was not challenged militarily because it would up the game to a new level where it could lead to unpredictable outcomes with possibly deadly results for humanity. It is simple like that. It is not because Russian fighter jets or S-XXX systems have Wunderwaffe attributes including the radio-horizon that Martyanov can't stop talking about. They do not. They are just adequate weapons. How really good are S-XXX at shooting hostile planes or missiles nobody yet knows as they haven't shot a single hostile plane or missile in a real war scenario yet.

    One should look at political situation in the summer of 2015. Did the refugee crisis play any role in the outcome? One can only speculate about this because we simply have not enough hard data about how the refugee crisis was created and who was behind it and why Merkel made her decision to diffuse the crisis just few weeks before Putin's speech in the UN and the subsequent commencement of Russian operation in Syria

    And then there is a question about the role of Israel? Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama's nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?
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  186. peterAUS says:
    @Mikel

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here.
     
    I am not qualified to assess that statement. But in my two fields of expertise Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.

    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.

    Haha…..this is good.

    Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.

    Well….I should’ve said “Russian top professional”.
    There is a….peculiar….style…..of those types.
    People brought up in West have hard time tolerating it, let alone working, with them.
    But…still….they are experts in their fields.
    They are the product of the environment they talk about, they have extensive knowledge accumulated through years working in that very environment, and, equally important, contacts there on several levels.

    It’s usual on Internet to reject all of a message because of a messenger.
    Free will…..

    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.

    Saker is in essence a civilian. He is not an ex-Soviet/Russian officer.
    So, that definitely makes his message more….readable….for civilians.
    Again…free will.

    As in any intelligence/analyst business, one gets information from a lot of resources and then makes his own opinion.
    One resource…10 %…another….3 %….another 15 %….etc.
    Wonders of Internet.
    Then, hopefully, contacts here and there.
    Then, own experience, knowledge…methodology…..time…..
    And, after all that one can be confident he/she has, say….85…90 % of truth.
    That’s the top for any “Internet presence”.
    Anything above that is a state secret, actually. Spilling that anywhere, let alone in public….well…..good luck with that.

    For this particular topic I’d say that 99 % of truth have only top guys in US/Russia/Israel leadership.

    Fanboys have it easy.
    They get latched to an authority figure and are always 100 % sure about the truth.
    Lucky them.

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    • Replies: @Sergey Krieger
    "Well….I should’ve said “Russian top professional”.

    I sense irony. But I wonder if consistent failures to achieve desirable outcome on Western armies part including IDF have as a root cause the lack of what Russian / Soviet officers display from the bottom to the very top of the ladder..
    It is not exactly pure academic environment.
    I often heard that Russians considered Western counterparts a bit too robotic and lacking in true emotions.
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  187. utu says:
    @Erebus

    It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia’s alleged Wunderwaffen.
     
    To be sure, politics drives all inter-nation action. The USA's, and Israel's geo-political interests and, indeed imperatives in the region, as widely discussed here at unz, have been thwarted. Ergo, both countries have every (repeat: every) political reason imaginable to defend those interests militarily, and little if any political reason to relinquish those interests.

    They were thwarted by Russia's intervention in their regime-change operations in Syria. That operation was the next critical stage of a grander, multi-decade strategy that would see a "re-drawing" of the map of the M.E. into which they've invested enormous political, military, and financial capital. To give scale to the importance they gave to Syrian regime change, the Qatari ex-PM gave a figure of >$150B having been invested in "Assad Must Go!". All of that is now wheels-up and smoking in the ditch.

    The 4+1 coalition's success in Syria, and it's emergence as a potent axis of power in engineering that success have re-drawn (or are in process of re-drawing) the M.E. in a totally different, indeed antithetical form to that envisaged by the US, Israel and its satraps. It's a massive geo-political FAIL.

    If...

    ... the reason for what we see on the ground (is not) Russia’s amazing technical capabilities.
     
    ... what is it?

    I'm all ears, because I can't see what else stayed their hand in the face of their geo-political losses. Losses, by the way, from which they are unlikely to recover, geo-politically speaking. If all it took was swarming some missiles and planes "for 60 minutes", why did they stand down and allow this axis to emerge?

    … what is it?

    It is very simple. The lack of political will in Obama administration to impose the no fly zone over Syria which they had opportunity to do on several occasions. Still in the summer 2015 it could have been done to preempt the build up of Russian base in Syria but for various reasons Obama had no will nor desire to do it however they thought of it and even Australia joined the “coalition” in late August 2015. But once Russia was in Syria the game has changed. Russia was not challenged in Syria militarily because of the weapons it had. Russia was not challenged militarily because it would up the game to a new level where it could lead to unpredictable outcomes with possibly deadly results for humanity. It is simple like that. It is not because Russian fighter jets or S-XXX systems have Wunderwaffe attributes including the radio-horizon that Martyanov can’t stop talking about. They do not. They are just adequate weapons. How really good are S-XXX at shooting hostile planes or missiles nobody yet knows as they haven’t shot a single hostile plane or missile in a real war scenario yet.

    One should look at political situation in the summer of 2015. Did the refugee crisis play any role in the outcome? One can only speculate about this because we simply have not enough hard data about how the refugee crisis was created and who was behind it and why Merkel made her decision to diffuse the crisis just few weeks before Putin’s speech in the UN and the subsequent commencement of Russian operation in Syria

    And then there is a question about the role of Israel? Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama’s nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?

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    • Replies: @Art

    Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama’s nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?
     
    utu,

    To his credit – Obama did not go into Syria because the US people were against it. He gave it to congress to decide – and they also got the message from the people and did not invoke war.

    We the people must do the same this time.

    Think Peace --- Art
    , @Erebus

    It is very simple. The lack of political will in Obama administration to impose the no fly zone over Syria which they had opportunity to do on several occasions.
     
    Ah, another too-simple-by-half solution.

    After Libya, of course, it would never gotten past the UNSC, making it an in-your-face, blatantly illegal act. Both China & Russia have said they would never let Libya happen again.
    If Obama "imposed" one anyway, what would have happened if the Russians ignored it? Or brought everything in by sea, and then started locking S3/400 radars onto NATO aircraft?
    What if they started launching salvoes of Kalibrs, X-101s & X-32s on ISIS targets?

    Seeing the stand-off firepower, the USM would have quickly understood the price they'd pay for trying to suppress the Russian AD. I'd wager that their primary concern would quickly become how to stand down without looking like sheepish schoolboys.
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  188. Art says:
    @whyamihere
    Israel has a bad army?? What is this guy smoking?! Israel has one of the best armies in the world. Israel will not be so merciful this time around should Hezbollah try to attack.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn't built even one.

    Remember what was said by Colin Powell in his emails, that Israel has 200 nukes aimed at Tehran. Iran still hasn’t built even one.

    It totally amazing that the Jews can keep these 200 nukes out of world discourse.

    No one of consequence will publicly and openly speak about Israel’s nukes – they all fear the Jew coercion machine. The whole of humanities intellectual world lives in fear of the Jew.

    This must end – PERIOD.

    Courage folks – courage.

    Think Peace — Art

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  189. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    I do not know what Israel will do or what does it want to do. I just wanted to bring up the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia's expeditionary contingent in Syria. That Israel has capability to destroy Russia's air defense systems and Russia's air force in Syria in 60 minutes. This obvious fact is being lost in the constant barrage of cheap and childish propaganda by Saker and Andrei Martyanov and their sycophants on this site. They obfuscate reality. If you need to console your wounded Russian and Soviet egos go ahead and keep listening to Saker and Martyanov. But if your interests go beyond the therapeutics for your soul and you would be interested to really find out what is going on you must accept the facts. The facts are fascinating. Like for example try to explain what was Israel's interest in allowing Russia to move to Syria? What game is Israel playing? Is Israel using Russia?

    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians? – This is a highly immature thinking. And why such an envy towards Saker and Andrei Martyanov? – You are free to shine here; just show your expertise. By the way, it does not help that you (hiding under a nick “utu” and not particularly popular as analyst) allow yourself to accuse other readers in sycophancy only because you do not like the Saker ‘s and Andrei Martyanov’ superb analyses. When you reach their level of expertise (and their real-name recognition), then your opinions could be taken seriously.
    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com. This is his real name. Colonel Lang is in possession of formidable military and cultural expertise re Middle East. Saker’s name shows up on his blog from time to time.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    (1) There is nothing better than when some "Anon" reprimands somebody for using a nick. You made my day.

    (2) Why do you insinuate envy? In your universe anybody whose opinion you do not like must be explained away by envy? Are you really that simple minded? Projections?

    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians?
     
    No, I did not mean that at all. You realize you created a straw man. Do I have to explain to you separately what I meant what I have already explained here several times? Or perhaps go read some of my comments above. Understanding what I meant should not be beyond your intelligence.
    , @Art
    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com.

    Thanks an this informative blog with real facts negative to Zionism. There are more and more of them these days.

    The lack of honesty and the coercive nature of the Jew culture are making people mad.

    It is a fact, Jews just have a low moral quotient. Honor is foreign to them.

    Think Peace --- Art
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  190. Art says:
    @utu
    … what is it?

    It is very simple. The lack of political will in Obama administration to impose the no fly zone over Syria which they had opportunity to do on several occasions. Still in the summer 2015 it could have been done to preempt the build up of Russian base in Syria but for various reasons Obama had no will nor desire to do it however they thought of it and even Australia joined the "coalition" in late August 2015. But once Russia was in Syria the game has changed. Russia was not challenged in Syria militarily because of the weapons it had. Russia was not challenged militarily because it would up the game to a new level where it could lead to unpredictable outcomes with possibly deadly results for humanity. It is simple like that. It is not because Russian fighter jets or S-XXX systems have Wunderwaffe attributes including the radio-horizon that Martyanov can't stop talking about. They do not. They are just adequate weapons. How really good are S-XXX at shooting hostile planes or missiles nobody yet knows as they haven't shot a single hostile plane or missile in a real war scenario yet.

    One should look at political situation in the summer of 2015. Did the refugee crisis play any role in the outcome? One can only speculate about this because we simply have not enough hard data about how the refugee crisis was created and who was behind it and why Merkel made her decision to diffuse the crisis just few weeks before Putin's speech in the UN and the subsequent commencement of Russian operation in Syria

    And then there is a question about the role of Israel? Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama's nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?

    Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama’s nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?

    utu,

    To his credit – Obama did not go into Syria because the US people were against it. He gave it to congress to decide – and they also got the message from the people and did not invoke war.

    We the people must do the same this time.

    Think Peace — Art

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    To his credit – Obama did not go into Syria because the US people were against it. He gave it to congress to decide – and they also got the message from the people and did not invoke war.

    I agree that Obama deserves some credit. He did not have qualms about Libya and gave the green light there. So I do not attribute his stand on Syria to the goodness of his heart or higher moral principles but rather to his preoccupation with his legacy at that stage of his presidency.

    But I disagree that messages sent by the so-called people matter. It is the matter of priority and effort: the vox populi can be taylor made to whatever is required.
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  191. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @peterAUS
    Well...I was actually more interested in why that push "Russia's technological advantage" here.
    Got my answer recently and sort of makes sense.
    The push, not the assumption, I mean.

    I don't buy that advantage.
    I mean, even if Russia does have that technological advantage (which I believe it does not) it wouldn't make any difference.

    Any serious clash between US and Russia, advantage or not, would escalate into nuclear.

    As for that technology being available to lesser players as Iran and/or North Korea, it isn't.
    So, bottom line, all this is just.......well, like those endless debates about "M-16 vs AK-47", "T-34 vs Panther", "Bismarck vs ship this/that" and such.

    My personal take on Russian sophisticated equipment is simple: looks awesome.
    Knowing something about Russian approach to work ethic, corruption, quality control and such.....don't think it is as it looks.

    But, debating that again and again with Rusophiles around...nahh....

    I do remember similar debates before the fall of Soviet Union.
    "Sovietophiles" believed in one thing, "Westerners" in another.
    Same now.

    “…work ethic, corruption, quality control and such…”
    Amazing the eagerness with which an Israel-firster accuses Russians in all deadly sins, while forgetting about the availability of other sources of information for the Unz readers.
    Here is something for “peterAUS:”
    “In the George W. Bush regime Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld said that the Pentagon could not acount for $2.3 trillion dollars. $2.3 trillion is an enormous sum, but now 15 years later the missing money is almost three times larger. The Pentagon says it cannot account for $6.5 trillion. The Pentagon, which has been notoriously lax in its accounting practices, has never completed an audit, would reveal how the agency has specifically spent the trillions of dollars allocated for wars, equipment, personnel, housing, healthcare and procurements allotted to them by Congress.”
    And this is when they can account for the expenses:
    “Military Admits Trillion Dollar F-35 Program is a Failure” https://www.activistpost.com/2016/03/military-admits-trillion-dollar-f-35-program-is-a-failure.html
    “For over a decade the US military has spent $1.5 trillion dollars to create an all-purpose fighter jet that would replace their diverse fleet of warplanes. It’s a project that has been rife with criticism for being grossly over budget and delayed for years, not to mention the fact that the plane is riddled with technical flaws and lacks maneuverability (most recently, it was revealed that the F-35 has a faulty radar that needs to be frequently restarted). And each of these problem prone aircraft cost 3 to 5 times as much to manufacture as older fighter jets, like the F-15 and F-16. Now officials with the Pentagon are admitting that this massive boondoggle is a total bust.”
    Here is the “most moral” partner of the US: https://www.timesofisrael.com/is-israel-becoming-a-mafia-state/
    “…the massive growth of organized crime in Israel over the past ten years, as well as the fact that Israel has become one of the world’s leading exporters of investment scams, stealing an estimated $5 billion to $10 billion per year from victims worldwide. Despite the fact that Israeli police recently announced that these investment scams are largely run by organized crime, which has grown to “monstrous proportions” as a consequence of little to no law enforcement for years, the Israeli government, parliament and authorities have to date proved unwilling or unable to shut them down, in part because these fraudulent industries have a powerful lobby in the Knesset.”

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  192. utu says:
    @Anon
    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians? - This is a highly immature thinking. And why such an envy towards Saker and Andrei Martyanov? - You are free to shine here; just show your expertise. By the way, it does not help that you (hiding under a nick "utu" and not particularly popular as analyst) allow yourself to accuse other readers in sycophancy only because you do not like the Saker ‘s and Andrei Martyanov’ superb analyses. When you reach their level of expertise (and their real-name recognition), then your opinions could be taken seriously.
    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com. This is his real name. Colonel Lang is in possession of formidable military and cultural expertise re Middle East. Saker’s name shows up on his blog from time to time.

    (1) There is nothing better than when some “Anon” reprimands somebody for using a nick. You made my day.

    (2) Why do you insinuate envy? In your universe anybody whose opinion you do not like must be explained away by envy? Are you really that simple minded? Projections?

    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians?

    No, I did not mean that at all. You realize you created a straw man. Do I have to explain to you separately what I meant what I have already explained here several times? Or perhaps go read some of my comments above. Understanding what I meant should not be beyond your intelligence.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    I showed my respect for two excellent experts, who also enjoy name recognition, and I showed my displeasure with your childish disrespectful attitude towards other readers on this blog.
    If you "did not mean that" then do not write the silly propositions that require explanations and comments. You are not Saker and you are not Martyanov to attract attention to the details of your writings. Since you are not an expert in the discussed matters, your posts also suffer from poor logic. Educate yourself first.
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  193. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    I presume that you do not argue with this statement:

    "the fact that Israel has the overwhelming conventional advantage over Russia’s expeditionary contingent in Syria."
     
    which I take as an obvious obviousness which somehow seems obscured among the Saker's commentariat My point was that Russia's forces in Syria are in very precarious situation. They are not in position to establish the no fly zone. They must permit Israel do what Israel wants. Israel is in position to make more demands like for example tell Russia which targets are off limit or possibly tell them the operation should be scaled down. Which Russia did already once when prematurely announced the reduction of the deployed forces in early 2016.

    I do not think that Israel would attack Russian forces but it will be pushing the envelope and keep rubbing it in. And if Russia shoots down an Israeli plane they will retaliate twice as hard. So Russia will be thinking very hard before doing anything. For Russia it is all about rebuilding its reputation as being a reliable ally. In this case to Syria. The Arab world and not only is watching. After Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya there is a lot of rebuilding to do. Israel can stop this process anytime. And Russia can't afford to lose face. But she is at mercy of Israel. And the Arab world is very aware that Israel's AF flies with impunity over Syria and Russia does nothing.

    couldn’t they just transfer a whole bunch of S-400 or S-500 systems to Syria or any of Israel’s other local enemies?

    If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it. During the last deployment of Kuznetsov no sorties took off from it. They had to operate from the land base.

    Which local enemies of Israel besides Syria you have in mind? I do not think there are any left nearby. Iran is too far.

    But couldn’t the irritated Russians then just fire a huge salvo of long-raise cruise missiles and totally destroy as many important Israeli military bases or other worthwhile targets as they wanted in retaliation?

    Certainly this would be the only option left to Russia. But Israel is supposed to have the best protection against such attack with their Iron Dome. The missiles would be coming from Russian territory which would give Israel and US intelligence ample time to locate them.

    Wasn’t that the whole point of Andrei’s very interesting article

    The only point of Andrei's articles and comments make is to raise the apprehension of missile gap in which Pentagon allegedly has found itself. Did you forward Andrei's article to your congressmen and senator? If not, you should. Raytheon will be very obliged.

    “If however Russian forces in Syria were wiped out Russia has no means to resupply. Israel would impose the no-fly zone and Russia w/o aircraft carriers could do nothing about it.”

    Are you serious, “utu”? Do you still play with toy soldiers? If the “most moral” apartheid state had a chance, it would already tried to wipe out the Russian forces in Syria.
    Now, “utu”, concentrate your attention on a very special Q: — Why Israelis has not dared to wipe out the Russian forces in Syria, even if the Lobby and Bibi are livid about Russians’ progress against ISIS in the sovereign state of Syria? And do not forget that the “U.S. Military is a Zionist Organization” (from a speech given by Shoshana Bryen at the American Zionist Movement Conference November 2017, Washington, DC) https://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/2017/11/20/u-s-military-zionist-organization/
    Just think hard. (A que: Russia is a nuclear state that is not too far away geographically from the moral-midget state of Israel).

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  194. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Andrei Martyanov
    Agree, Ron. Moreover, today Russia officially announced hyper-sonic 3M22 Zircon being operational--that changes dynamics in Mediterranean completely, I mean radically. We knew that it was coming, now it is here. It is, without exaggeration, a death knell for US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups in Med (and elsewhere).

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    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2017/11/it-is-official-3m22-is-operational.html

    Ranges, which are mentioned in Russian media and informed sources are given between 400 to 1000 km. depending on trajectory. This is about maximum ranges, obviously shorter ranges go without saying. The "thing" in the picture is not 3M22. It will be some time before we'll see actual image of Zircon, albeit Brahmos presented a mock-up of its hyper-sonic missile recently and similarities are obvious for pure technological reasons.

    http://www.ainonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/ain30_fullwidth_large_2x/public/uploads/2017/04/webbraghmos-ii.jpg?itok=5RFgjRcA&timestamp=1493129119
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  195. Erebus says:
    @peterAUS
    Haha...you are onto something here.

    My 2 cents:
    It was draw ...of sort.

    But...and in today's world it is much more important...they lost "perception wise".

    Their physical loses were more than they anticipated and their tactics didn't work as expected. That made them "losing side".
    It was supposed to be sort of repetition of US drive to Kabul.
    Didn't work that way, obviously.
    So, loss......

    More importantly, reading IDF analysis of that clash and, even more importantly recommendations for improvement, they also didn't see it as a sterling performance they expected.
    Oh...on a side note: how many people offering their strong feelings about that clash and Israel/Hezbollah topic read that document?

    I'd say....two...three tops.

    Now, one thing here, if I may.

    About Andrey.

    He is one of top professionals here. I repeat....one of top professionals here.
    There are a couple of ex-officers here posting....officers...not NCOs or troopers.
    There are couple of ...say....academics/scientists/heavy hobbyist too....
    A couple only.
    The rest are just fanboys.....

    Andrey is one of a couple of persons here who actually use proper...I repeat...proper, methodology when talking about things he talks about.
    And he does that the most professionally.
    I'd suggest keeping that in mind.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology. He operates as a very good, say, Corps, staff officer. But...and there is where we disagree.......I do not believe his input is correct.
    That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    Say....the brigade is at the level 8. A brigade at level 8 can do this ...that.
    True.
    We are going to employ the brigade there and that way because it is at level 8.
    Correct.

    But....how do you really know they are at the level 8?
    Have YOU seen them...or you just read a report sent by their own CiC element?
    Are you sure that their CiC element isn't...how to put it.."embellishing" things a bit?
    You know...career wise?

    So....when Andrey says: that weapon system is such and such, knowing something about Russian armed forces organizational culture and Russian society in general....well.....I just don't buy it, most of the time.

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology… That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.

    That’s fair enough, but just as your experience is with (presumably) Western types, or last generation Russian types, you may perhaps have extrapolated your experience in error.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because “you can’t trust the Russian numbers”. Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are “Unreliable”, what are the West’s numbers? “Delusional” and “Hallucinogenic” come to mind, but I think it’s worse.

    Given the West’s military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are “Ideological”, and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we’ve seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West’s upper echelons knew that too.

    And it ain’t just military. Russia’s spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same “combat efficiency”, to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West’s military-diplomatic attempt to “re-draw the M.E.” look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West’s Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,… to fall one by one off the options list. If “the input/numbers” had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.

    Read More
    • Agree: Cloak And Dagger
    • Replies: @peterAUS
    Articulated post, so deems a reply.

    We've spoken before a lot and, I guess, both came to conclusion that we have different perceptions of reality.
    Now, instead of calling each other names (which majority of comments are all about) we just need to accept that.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.
     
    Not really.
    It is a small contingent, a little expeditionary force, dealing with rag-tag militia.
    See, my perception is quite different: I was expecting a quick and decisive victory by Russia/Syria ages ago and it still isn't there.
    I appoint all the blame on Assad's regime, as per "Arabs in war" etc.
    Even if Russia/Syria coalition had delivered as I was expecting it wouldn't have changed much. Again, a selected expeditionary force dealing with a rag-tag opponent.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.
     
    Your view.
    Mine is: struggling to deliver what was supposed to do due to astonishing incompetence of SAA.
    And, no, SAA is still incompetent bunch of armed guys.
    No blame on Russians here; nobody in this Universe could've done a better job.
    Again..."Arabs in war" would explain all that.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because “you can’t trust the Russian numbers”. Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are “Unreliable”, what are the West’s numbers? “Delusional” and “Hallucinogenic” come to mind, but I think it’s worse.
     
    Russian numbers are unreliable in my book.
    Western numbers are unreliable in my book.
    That is exactly The Problem we are facing as we speak.

    Given the West’s military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are “Ideological”, and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we’ve seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West’s upper echelons knew that too.
     
    I am not quite sure I got what you tried to say here.
    That West can deploy an overwhelming destructive power against its enemy?
    Enemy being Iran/North Korea at the moment?
    Agree.
    That it is irrelevant? Disagree.

    And it ain’t just military. Russia’s spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same “combat efficiency”, to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West’s military-diplomatic attempt to “re-draw the M.E.” look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.
     
    Maybe.
    Still, M.E. looks as a mess to me.
    So, all that good effort still...still...hasn't produced much of a difference.
    Again, I don't blame Russians. They have been doing quite well that diplomatic etc part. But, the mess is still there. And not going anywhere any time soon.
    So, A for effort, C for result.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West’s Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,… to fall one by one off the options list. If “the input/numbers” had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.
     
    That's how you see it.
    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess.
    Exactly what The Empire wants.

    As for those "Russian numbers", I mean if you believe that Russian military organizational culture is good with them, fine with me.
    I'll tell you what I think: while it is way better than Arab, it is still below western standards. Granted, elite troops are pretty much on that level (as pretty much everywhere in the world), but the bulk of Russian forces is not.
    Let's just agree to disagree there and move on.
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  196. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Sergey Krieger
    Remember about all that nice stand off Russian capability. I have serious doubt it will be left unused if there will be any sign of Israeli large scale attack. All Israeli bases and airports are known. This capability can be used as swiftly against American or Israeli assets. Andrei also mentioned EW capabilities and if S200 could see F35... I expect no crazy moves from Israel. They are not suicidal.

    It is a blessing that Israel has so many former Soviet Jews who have a better grasp of reality than the pampered ziocons.

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  197. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    It actually puzzles me seeing people here contemplating that scenario.

    To contemplate does not mean to look forward to or to hope for. To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. The chief reason I have created the image of the wipe out was to cut through the technical BS that we get from Saker and Martyanov who paint a picture that the reason for what we see on the ground are Russia's amazing technical capabilities. Whether some SS-XXX has range of 150km or 200km has nothing to do with it. Russia's technical capabilities do not stop Israel from wiping them out. It is the politics that constrains the situation in Syria. To understand what is going on there and why one must look into politics and not into the capabilities of Russia's alleged Wunderwaffen. But if you have a mentality of a teenage boy who is interested in technical aspect of weapons and what kind of boom they make Saker and Martyanov might be your guys.

    “To be cognizant of the actual balance of power is critical to understanding the dynamics and its evolution. ”
    But your cognizance is apparently flowed; it lacks the logic dictated by the given context.
    By the way, your writing style is pompous.

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  198. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Mikel

    I would venture to say that even the combined forces of Israel and the Saudis is insufficient to overpower the Hez .../... Hezbollah is now far stronger than they were then with thousands of missiles and more sophisticated weaponry via Iran, including Russian armaments.
     
    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don't seem to have finished yet.

    I wouldn't like this to become another "you haven't studied radiophotonics at a naval academy so you don't know what you're talking about" kind of discussion but your proposition that Hezbollah alone would be able to defeat Israel (+Saudi) sounds most unlikely to me.

    “Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags..”
    You have ommited the well-known US/Israel’ support of the ISIS ragtags. — Why?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Mikel

    You have ommited the well-known US/Israel’ support of the ISIS ragtags. — Why?
     
    Because of course I am paid by the Mossad to discredit Martyanov. What other possible explanation could there be for me failing to mention the indisputable fact that Israel and even more so the USA are supporting ISIS, as the world witnessed in Raqqa and Mosul? Well spotted, Sherlock.
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  199. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    I understand your debilitating Russophobia but it doesn’t mean that you can not understand a basic problem of radio-horizon, does it?

    There is no ounce of Russophobia in me. I just do not buy your BS.

    “utu” – your posts are funny. Andrei Martyanov’ post are expertly. Grow up.

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  200. utu says:
    @Art

    Did Netanyahu got into talks with Putin on Syria in 2015 because he wanted to rub Obama’s nose or perhaps he wanted to provoke and prod Obama into the action in Syria but he miscalculated and instead of getting the no-fly zone over Syria he ended up opening Syria to Russia?
     
    utu,

    To his credit – Obama did not go into Syria because the US people were against it. He gave it to congress to decide – and they also got the message from the people and did not invoke war.

    We the people must do the same this time.

    Think Peace --- Art

    To his credit – Obama did not go into Syria because the US people were against it. He gave it to congress to decide – and they also got the message from the people and did not invoke war.

    I agree that Obama deserves some credit. He did not have qualms about Libya and gave the green light there. So I do not attribute his stand on Syria to the goodness of his heart or higher moral principles but rather to his preoccupation with his legacy at that stage of his presidency.

    But I disagree that messages sent by the so-called people matter. It is the matter of priority and effort: the vox populi can be taylor made to whatever is required.

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  201. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @utu
    (1) There is nothing better than when some "Anon" reprimands somebody for using a nick. You made my day.

    (2) Why do you insinuate envy? In your universe anybody whose opinion you do not like must be explained away by envy? Are you really that simple minded? Projections?

    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians?
     
    No, I did not mean that at all. You realize you created a straw man. Do I have to explain to you separately what I meant what I have already explained here several times? Or perhaps go read some of my comments above. Understanding what I meant should not be beyond your intelligence.

    I showed my respect for two excellent experts, who also enjoy name recognition, and I showed my displeasure with your childish disrespectful attitude towards other readers on this blog.
    If you “did not mean that” then do not write the silly propositions that require explanations and comments. You are not Saker and you are not Martyanov to attract attention to the details of your writings. Since you are not an expert in the discussed matters, your posts also suffer from poor logic. Educate yourself first.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    You are not Saker and you are not Martyanov to attract attention to the details of your writings.

    I appreciate your generous attention that has already blessed me with six comments of yours.

    Something is lacking in the self-awareness department, Anon. And irony as well.
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  202. Art says:
    @Anon
    You mean, you are surprised that Israelis have not started yet the WWIII by attacking Russians? - This is a highly immature thinking. And why such an envy towards Saker and Andrei Martyanov? - You are free to shine here; just show your expertise. By the way, it does not help that you (hiding under a nick "utu" and not particularly popular as analyst) allow yourself to accuse other readers in sycophancy only because you do not like the Saker ‘s and Andrei Martyanov’ superb analyses. When you reach their level of expertise (and their real-name recognition), then your opinions could be taken seriously.
    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com. This is his real name. Colonel Lang is in possession of formidable military and cultural expertise re Middle East. Saker’s name shows up on his blog from time to time.

    PS: You could profit by visiting an excellent blog by Colonel Patrick Lang: http://turcopolier.typepad.com.

    Thanks an this informative blog with real facts negative to Zionism. There are more and more of them these days.

    The lack of honesty and the coercive nature of the Jew culture are making people mad.

    It is a fact, Jews just have a low moral quotient. Honor is foreign to them.

    Think Peace — Art

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  203. L.K says:
    @peterAUS

    The US economy probably couldn’t support another $ Trillion ME war – this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent.
     
    Well...that is the element I've been trying to get some more info about, with zero success.

    In simple words: war is good for business.

    A bit longer: could a decent war with Iran rejuvenate industrial base in Trump base states? Bring those industries back and create jobs for "America firsters".
    If yes, well.....all the rest is easy........

    Troll peterAus: “In simple words: war is good for business.”

    More BS from our little warmongering Bullshitter…

    War Prosperity: The Fallacy that Won’t Die
    By Robert Higgs | February 6, 2003
    Submitted to The Wall Street Journal

    http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=442

    Economists DESTROY the Myth that War Is Good for the Economy

    http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/06/top-experts-war-bad-economy.html

    https://www.amazon.com/Depression-War-Cold-Challenging-Independent/dp/1598130293/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1508439496&sr=8-3&keywords=Robert+Higgs

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  204. peterAUS says:
    @Erebus

    Where Andrey and I disagree (and we disagree a lot) is that I do not buy his numbers. I do buy his methodology... That, very briefly, comes from my experience working with similar types.
     
    That's fair enough, but just as your experience is with (presumably) Western types, or last generation Russian types, you may perhaps have extrapolated your experience in error.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because "you can't trust the Russian numbers". Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are "Unreliable", what are the West's numbers? "Delusional" and "Hallucinogenic" come to mind, but I think it's worse.

    Given the West's military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are "Ideological", and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we've seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West's upper echelons knew that too.

    And it ain't just military. Russia's spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same "combat efficiency", to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West's military-diplomatic attempt to "re-draw the M.E." look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West's Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,... to fall one by one off the options list. If "the input/numbers" had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.

    Articulated post, so deems a reply.

    We’ve spoken before a lot and, I guess, both came to conclusion that we have different perceptions of reality.
    Now, instead of calling each other names (which majority of comments are all about) we just need to accept that.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.

    Not really.
    It is a small contingent, a little expeditionary force, dealing with rag-tag militia.
    See, my perception is quite different: I was expecting a quick and decisive victory by Russia/Syria ages ago and it still isn’t there.
    I appoint all the blame on Assad’s regime, as per “Arabs in war” etc.
    Even if Russia/Syria coalition had delivered as I was expecting it wouldn’t have changed much. Again, a selected expeditionary force dealing with a rag-tag opponent.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.

    Your view.
    Mine is: struggling to deliver what was supposed to do due to astonishing incompetence of SAA.
    And, no, SAA is still incompetent bunch of armed guys.
    No blame on Russians here; nobody in this Universe could’ve done a better job.
    Again…”Arabs in war” would explain all that.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because “you can’t trust the Russian numbers”. Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are “Unreliable”, what are the West’s numbers? “Delusional” and “Hallucinogenic” come to mind, but I think it’s worse.

    Russian numbers are unreliable in my book.
    Western numbers are unreliable in my book.
    That is exactly The Problem we are facing as we speak.

    Given the West’s military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are “Ideological”, and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we’ve seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West’s upper echelons knew that too.

    I am not quite sure I got what you tried to say here.
    That West can deploy an overwhelming destructive power against its enemy?
    Enemy being Iran/North Korea at the moment?
    Agree.
    That it is irrelevant? Disagree.

    And it ain’t just military. Russia’s spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same “combat efficiency”, to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West’s military-diplomatic attempt to “re-draw the M.E.” look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.

    Maybe.
    Still, M.E. looks as a mess to me.
    So, all that good effort still…still…hasn’t produced much of a difference.
    Again, I don’t blame Russians. They have been doing quite well that diplomatic etc part. But, the mess is still there. And not going anywhere any time soon.
    So, A for effort, C for result.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West’s Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,… to fall one by one off the options list. If “the input/numbers” had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.

    That’s how you see it.
    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess.
    Exactly what The Empire wants.

    As for those “Russian numbers”, I mean if you believe that Russian military organizational culture is good with them, fine with me.
    I’ll tell you what I think: while it is way better than Arab, it is still below western standards. Granted, elite troops are pretty much on that level (as pretty much everywhere in the world), but the bulk of Russian forces is not.
    Let’s just agree to disagree there and move on.

    Read More
    • Replies: @utu
    So, all that good effort still…still…hasn’t produced much of a difference.

    You are not fair. Russia deserves A+ for Syria operation. Perhaps it could have been done faster. In early 2016 Russia wavered for unknown reason and started reducing the number of planes. The effort was very moderate though for Russia resources quite significant but the difference they made is great. Assad is still power, ISIS is out, rebels are defeated and completely different political situation emerged in this region.

    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess. Exactly what The Empire wants.

    Only ex post facto. The Empire would have preferred to have Syria destroyed and not having Russia there. It is the sore loser argument. I know you game, man. You are a little manipulator.

    The question is whether the effect of Russia's engagement will be long lasting. What happens to Syria if Russia loses her interest? And what would it take to make Russia lose her interest in Syria?
    , @L.K
    The Taliban is a rag-tag militia, the main groups in Syria are very well funded, well armed and much more numerous... or were, b4 they got decimated... Those are facts.

    The US forces have FAILED to defeat the Taliban, a rag-tag militia, lightly armed and under-funded.
    The Taliban controls much of the country. The surge of up to some 140.000 US/NATO forces failed.

    In Iraq, the US, facing basically the arab speaking sunni minority, struggled badly & was forced to basically bribe the insurgents into "defeat".

    Your depiction of the war in Syria is ridiculous, but then again, you are merely an intellectually dishonest scumbag.

    P.S. Here's an idea... Since you are such a big military expert and war lover, why don't you offer your services to the zamericans in Afghanistan?... they could use your 'expertice' in learning how to beat the rag-tag Taliban...

    Clown.
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  205. utu says:
    @Anon
    I showed my respect for two excellent experts, who also enjoy name recognition, and I showed my displeasure with your childish disrespectful attitude towards other readers on this blog.
    If you "did not mean that" then do not write the silly propositions that require explanations and comments. You are not Saker and you are not Martyanov to attract attention to the details of your writings. Since you are not an expert in the discussed matters, your posts also suffer from poor logic. Educate yourself first.

    You are not Saker and you are not Martyanov to attract attention to the details of your writings.

    I appreciate your generous attention that has already blessed me with six comments of yours.

    Something is lacking in the self-awareness department, Anon. And irony as well.

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    • Replies: @Anon
    what a pettiness...
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  206. Mikel says:
    @Anon
    "Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags.."
    You have ommited the well-known US/Israel' support of the ISIS ragtags. -- Why?

    You have ommited the well-known US/Israel’ support of the ISIS ragtags. — Why?

    Because of course I am paid by the Mossad to discredit Martyanov. What other possible explanation could there be for me failing to mention the indisputable fact that Israel and even more so the USA are supporting ISIS, as the world witnessed in Raqqa and Mosul? Well spotted, Sherlock.

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  207. utu says:
    @peterAUS
    Articulated post, so deems a reply.

    We've spoken before a lot and, I guess, both came to conclusion that we have different perceptions of reality.
    Now, instead of calling each other names (which majority of comments are all about) we just need to accept that.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.
     
    Not really.
    It is a small contingent, a little expeditionary force, dealing with rag-tag militia.
    See, my perception is quite different: I was expecting a quick and decisive victory by Russia/Syria ages ago and it still isn't there.
    I appoint all the blame on Assad's regime, as per "Arabs in war" etc.
    Even if Russia/Syria coalition had delivered as I was expecting it wouldn't have changed much. Again, a selected expeditionary force dealing with a rag-tag opponent.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.
     
    Your view.
    Mine is: struggling to deliver what was supposed to do due to astonishing incompetence of SAA.
    And, no, SAA is still incompetent bunch of armed guys.
    No blame on Russians here; nobody in this Universe could've done a better job.
    Again..."Arabs in war" would explain all that.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because “you can’t trust the Russian numbers”. Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are “Unreliable”, what are the West’s numbers? “Delusional” and “Hallucinogenic” come to mind, but I think it’s worse.
     
    Russian numbers are unreliable in my book.
    Western numbers are unreliable in my book.
    That is exactly The Problem we are facing as we speak.

    Given the West’s military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are “Ideological”, and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we’ve seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West’s upper echelons knew that too.
     
    I am not quite sure I got what you tried to say here.
    That West can deploy an overwhelming destructive power against its enemy?
    Enemy being Iran/North Korea at the moment?
    Agree.
    That it is irrelevant? Disagree.

    And it ain’t just military. Russia’s spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same “combat efficiency”, to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West’s military-diplomatic attempt to “re-draw the M.E.” look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.
     
    Maybe.
    Still, M.E. looks as a mess to me.
    So, all that good effort still...still...hasn't produced much of a difference.
    Again, I don't blame Russians. They have been doing quite well that diplomatic etc part. But, the mess is still there. And not going anywhere any time soon.
    So, A for effort, C for result.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West’s Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,… to fall one by one off the options list. If “the input/numbers” had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.
     
    That's how you see it.
    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess.
    Exactly what The Empire wants.

    As for those "Russian numbers", I mean if you believe that Russian military organizational culture is good with them, fine with me.
    I'll tell you what I think: while it is way better than Arab, it is still below western standards. Granted, elite troops are pretty much on that level (as pretty much everywhere in the world), but the bulk of Russian forces is not.
    Let's just agree to disagree there and move on.

    So, all that good effort still…still…hasn’t produced much of a difference.

    You are not fair. Russia deserves A+ for Syria operation. Perhaps it could have been done faster. In early 2016 Russia wavered for unknown reason and started reducing the number of planes. The effort was very moderate though for Russia resources quite significant but the difference they made is great. Assad is still power, ISIS is out, rebels are defeated and completely different political situation emerged in this region.

    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess. Exactly what The Empire wants.

    Only ex post facto. The Empire would have preferred to have Syria destroyed and not having Russia there. It is the sore loser argument. I know you game, man. You are a little manipulator.

    The question is whether the effect of Russia’s engagement will be long lasting. What happens to Syria if Russia loses her interest? And what would it take to make Russia lose her interest in Syria?

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  208. L.K says:
    @Cloak And Dagger

    Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet.
     
    Besides the fact that ISIS has lost (except for those being transported out of the area by the US), ISIS was never alone -> ISIS was created and supported by Israel+US+Saudi. So, the above equation is a little different.

    In 2006, when Hezbollah was smaller, with less equipment and firepower, it routed Israel's onslaught of both aerial and land-based firepower and sent them scurrying with their tail between their legs as I have written elsewhere on UR.

    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HJ12Ak01.html
    PART 1: Winning the intelligence war


    From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel's strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel.

     

    Today, Hezbollah is battle-hardened, and with more manpower and modern firepower, with (allegedly) over 110,000 rockets aimed at Tel Aviv - capable of demolishing that tiny country within hours. More importantly, because of how Hezbollah compartmentalizes their security, there is little to no intelligence about the extent of the power or their plans, as demonstrated in 2006 (much better today). Meanwhile, as Alastair Crooke reports above, Hezbollah has completely penetrated Israeli intelligence and knows exactly what to defend against. Modern warfare, certainly asymmetric ones, are all about intelligence.

    I stand by my claim the Israel+Saudis are insufficient to overcome Lebanon, without even bringing Syria, Russia, Iran, and possibly Turkey into the equation. It is increasingly unlikely that we in the US will allow our government to attack Lebanon, just as we stopped Obama from directly attacking Syria, despite the Israel-firsters in congress.

    Former MI6, Alastair Crooke’s series is one of the best and most reliable accounts of that war…
    From their report, in a few words:

    But by any accounting – whether in rockets, armored vehicles or numbers of dead and wounded – Hezbollah’s fight against Israel must be accorded a decisive military and political victory. Even if it were otherwise (and it is clearly not), the full impact of Hezbollah’s war with Israel over a period of 34 days in July and August has caused a political earthquake in the region.

    I agree with you that the israel-saudi combo cannot defeat Hezbollah.
    Fighting wise, it ain’t much of a combo, since the Saudi military is a complete joke and bogged down in Yemen. The best the 2 could hope for would be to drag the ZUSA into it to fight for them.

    As for this Mikel person, he is either completely ignorant of the war in Syria or just another miserable troll. The stupidity of a comment such as the following is breathtaking:

    “Well, Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran have had a surprisingly difficult time overpowering the ISIS ragtags and, unfortunately, they don’t seem to have finished yet”

    As you mentioned ISIS was covertly created & supported by the ZUSA coalition. Furthermore, ISIS, in Syria, have been only one of several powerful Wahhabi/Salafist groups trying to overthrow the government.

    In fact, the most dangerous one in the more strategically important areas of Western Syria has been the Nusra coalition… but there are others, such as Jaysh al-Islam, etc.

    And ragtags? Ragtags are the Taliban, few in numbers, under-funded and lightly armed, a force that controls more than half of Afghanistan in a war which began in 2001 & fighting against the supposed best military in the world… as per some neocons, the best of all time, gasp.

    The salafist militants in Syria were well funded by the US coalition, well armed( including heavy weapons) and numerous. Syria totally surrounded by hostile forces with militant bases in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, even in Lebanon(both Nusra and ISIS set up bases in Sunni areas with help from the Hariri people)…

    Plus, “Syria+Russia+Hezbollah+Iran” is a very false way to depict this coalition…
    Russian force = very small
    Iranian proper = very small
    Iranian backed forces in Syria = more sizable but not that large.
    For instance, Hezbollah had to keep the bulk of its forces in Lebanon to defend against Israel and to keep an eye on Nusra & ISIS inside sunni areas of lebanon such as Arsal, where not long ago Hezbollah routed the Wahhabis eliminating them once and for all from Lebanon, to the consternation of Israel-ZUSA-Saudi A.
    Iran also had to hastily arm , train & for a while advise the PMU, to avoid collapse of Iraq to ISIS, since a lot of the US trained Iraqi army collapsed.

    Only a fool or a liar could presume that defeating the strong jihadi forces in Syria and Iraq under such conditions, could be an easy task. When all things are properly considered, the Syrian-Russia-Iran-Hezb forces have done a remarkable job.

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  209. peterAUS says:

    …rebels are defeated….

    I see.
    Right.

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  210. L.K says:
    @peterAUS
    Articulated post, so deems a reply.

    We've spoken before a lot and, I guess, both came to conclusion that we have different perceptions of reality.
    Now, instead of calling each other names (which majority of comments are all about) we just need to accept that.

    However disputable the Russian numbers may be, the undeniable facts on the ground in Syria suggest the Russian military is now in a league of its own.
     
    Not really.
    It is a small contingent, a little expeditionary force, dealing with rag-tag militia.
    See, my perception is quite different: I was expecting a quick and decisive victory by Russia/Syria ages ago and it still isn't there.
    I appoint all the blame on Assad's regime, as per "Arabs in war" etc.
    Even if Russia/Syria coalition had delivered as I was expecting it wouldn't have changed much. Again, a selected expeditionary force dealing with a rag-tag opponent.

    From the pin-point physical devastation of ISIS groupings, to the astonishingly high combat efficiency of its RuAF, to the renewal, retraining & reorganization of a shattered SAA and its integration with Iraqi PMUs, Iranian militias and HZB into a combined arms force capable of effective combat from open desert to urban environments is mirrored by a Western shortcoming, if not failure in every one of those areas. If it was a series of zero-sum contests, the West lost every one.
     
    Your view.
    Mine is: struggling to deliver what was supposed to do due to astonishing incompetence of SAA.
    And, no, SAA is still incompetent bunch of armed guys.
    No blame on Russians here; nobody in this Universe could've done a better job.
    Again..."Arabs in war" would explain all that.

    Meanwhile you continue to talk as if there was some sort of rough parity because “you can’t trust the Russian numbers”. Huh? Were you paying any attention to what happened over the last 2 years? That 2 years begs a question: If the Russian numbers are “Unreliable”, what are the West’s numbers? “Delusional” and “Hallucinogenic” come to mind, but I think it’s worse.
     
    Russian numbers are unreliable in my book.
    Western numbers are unreliable in my book.
    That is exactly The Problem we are facing as we speak.

    Given the West’s military stand-down, the upper echelons sense, if not outright know that their numbers are “Ideological”, and that today only one number means anything in support of Western military power. Namely the absolute tonnage of materiel and destructive power it can still bring to bear, however ham-handedly, into a battle zone. As we’ve seen, even that can be rendered irrelevant, and the West’s upper echelons knew that too.
     
    I am not quite sure I got what you tried to say here.
    That West can deploy an overwhelming destructive power against its enemy?
    Enemy being Iran/North Korea at the moment?
    Agree.
    That it is irrelevant? Disagree.

    And it ain’t just military. Russia’s spectrum of integrated military programs in Syria was itself fully integrated with a diplomatic full-court press that was talking to all sides, organizing peace conferences, ceasefires, amnesties, de-confliction zones, rebel stand-downs, humanitarian corridors, building alliances and co-operatives while peeling Western allies away. They were doing it with the same “combat efficiency”, to the same end, and working to the same milestones. The combination made the West’s military-diplomatic attempt to “re-draw the M.E.” look like the efforts of disinterested amateurs.
     
    Maybe.
    Still, M.E. looks as a mess to me.
    So, all that good effort still...still...hasn't produced much of a difference.
    Again, I don't blame Russians. They have been doing quite well that diplomatic etc part. But, the mess is still there. And not going anywhere any time soon.
    So, A for effort, C for result.

    That combination of comprehensive programs and efforts not only made the West’s Plan A a pipe-dream, it forced Plans B, C, D,… to fall one by one off the options list. If “the input/numbers” had anything to do with that, the Russian number set must stand a league apart from what the West is generating/claiming/using.
     
    That's how you see it.
    I see it as Russia being dragged, and bogged, into M.E. mess.
    Exactly what The Empire wants.

    As for those "Russian numbers", I mean if you believe that Russian military organizational culture is good with them, fine with me.
    I'll tell you what I think: while it is way better than Arab, it is still below western standards. Granted, elite troops are pretty much on that level (as pretty much everywhere in the world), but the bulk of Russian forces is not.
    Let's just agree to disagree there and move on.

    The Taliban is a rag-tag militia, the main groups in Syria are very well funded, well armed and much more numerous… or were, b4 they got decimated… Those are facts.

    The US forces have FAILED to defeat the Taliban, a rag-tag militia, lightly armed and under-funded.
    The Taliban controls much of the country. The surge of up to some 140.000 US/NATO forces failed.

    In Iraq, the US, facing basically the arab speaking sunni minority, struggled badly & was forced to basically bribe the insurgents into “defeat”.

    Your depiction of the war in Syria is ridiculous, but then again, you are merely an intellectually dishonest scumbag.

    P.S. Here’s an idea… Since you are such a big military expert and war lover, why don’t you offer your services to the zamericans in Afghanistan?… they could use your ‘expertice’ in learning how to beat the rag-tag Taliban…

    Clown.

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  211. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Miro23

    So they wait and try to provoke thinking reaction would follow which then they can use against Syria Lebanon Iran and garner international silence or active support .
     
    International silence or active support for Middle east wars is hard to get. They had to organize the 9/11 deception to get support for the destruction of Iraq. They also had to fully mobilize their press behind the fakery of 9/11 (including WMD).

    If the US is the key player here (Israel is not going to fight Iran without the US doing the heavy lifting, and Saudi Arabia is militarily irrelevant), then the problem faced by the Israel/US/Saudi alliance is that Iran/Syria/Russia are trying hard not to be provoked while steadily winning on the ground.

    Also, 2017 is not 2001. The US public have seen the results of Middle East wars, they've been put in debt for $ Trillions to pay for these adventures, and there's an unprecedented lack of trust in the MSM. Trump was partly elected on a platform of "No more ME wars".

    But taking Iran as the principal target, a False Flag fabrication against Israel or Saudi Arabia wouldn't be enough to draw the US into this war. It would have to involve a major Zio organized attack on the US itself ( same as 9/11) or something like framing Iran for the sinking a US aircraft carrier (USS Liberty replay).

    Then there's the Russia aspect, the financial cost, the political side and the nature of the war.

    Russia wouldn't risk a nuclear conflict for Iran - even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it's probably safe to count them out.

    The US economy probably couldn't support another $ Trillion ME war - this time against a much stronger and better prepared opponent. It would involve higher oil prices, the potential for spreading into Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, and it would certainly alienate Russia and China (they have big investments in Iran). In short, a complicated war that could collapse a fragile US financial system.

    On the political side, Trump got elected on "No more ME wars", but a major False Flag would counter act this for a while, giving him the opportunity to show "leadership" and get the enthusiastic support of the US Zionists and the MSM.

    As for the war itself, it wouldn't be a ground war. Iran is too far away, the logistics are impossible, the country is too large, and the US just doesn't have the military capability for occupation - let alone the political will. The leaves the destruction of the Iran from the air and the question of air-defense , something that the Iranians have been working on upgrading.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.

    Good analysis but I’m not too sure about this:

    Russia wouldn’t risk a nuclear conflict for Iran – even knowing that they would be cleared out of the region, so it’s probably safe to count them out.

    Both nuclear superpowers’ doctrines include the use of nuclear strikes – when necessary. Furthermore: Iran, and the region, are non-negotiable for Russia. If they can’t protect their friendly nations there they’ll lose all other friends, allies, partners and fence-sitters. Right now, China and Russia are building their own coalition and the best way to do that is to show strength and loyalty. Otherwise, they’ll face the next war isolated and alone.

    Altogether, the potential for disaster is enormous, with the best option getting the Israelis and US Zionist out of the US government and politics (i.e. shut down AIPAC as a foreign agent). That would be a real lasting victory for the United States.

    Couldn’t agree more. I’d go even further but that’s another story.

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    Both nuclear superpowers’ doctrines include the use of nuclear strikes – when necessary. Furthermore: Iran, and the region, are non-negotiable for Russia. If they can’t protect their friendly nations there they’ll lose all other friends, allies, partners and fence-sitters.
     
    These are probabilistic questions, but in my view these weapons are so powerful that they don't leave room for a scaled response after a war is initiated - so they really are doomsday weapons.

    For any sane government, nuclear weapons have to be used as a last resort, and their use avoided at almost any cost (including loss of influence among allies). My only doubt is the psychotic nature of the Neocons and their power in the US. If the US and Russia destroyed each other while Israel came out the winner, they might go for it. After all, a great deal of planning went into the 9/11 "Event" that was extremely harmful to the Middle East and the United States but left Israel untouched.
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  212. @peterAUS
    Haha.....this is good.

    Top Professionals follow rules like this:

    - Leave aside personal feelings and try to show objectivity when communicating about their areas of knowledge.
    - Stick to the issues at hand without going astray in multiple directions.
    - Avoid exaggerations.
    - Avoid overloading texts with unnecessary technical jargon. It causes bad impression in peers and obscures rather than clarifies the main message.
    - Have a good background education. That helps to communicate your thoughts effectively and to avoid childish personal quarrels.
     

    Well....I should've said "Russian top professional".
    There is a....peculiar....style.....of those types.
    People brought up in West have hard time tolerating it, let alone working, with them.
    But...still....they are experts in their fields.
    They are the product of the environment they talk about, they have extensive knowledge accumulated through years working in that very environment, and, equally important, contacts there on several levels.

    It's usual on Internet to reject all of a message because of a messenger.
    Free will.....


    The Saker is a more complex character. In spite of his incredibly conspiratorial mindset, he sometimes produces very intelligent ideas.
     
    Saker is in essence a civilian. He is not an ex-Soviet/Russian officer.
    So, that definitely makes his message more....readable....for civilians.
    Again...free will.

    As in any intelligence/analyst business, one gets information from a lot of resource