The Unz Review - Mobile
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
 TeasersiSteve Blog
"Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates"
🔊 Listen RSS
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Troll, or LOL with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used once per hour.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
Search Text Case Sensitive  Exact Words  Include Comments
List of Bookmarks

I wrote about this research back on January 18, but now it’s finally gone public. From Yale Insights:

Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates

MOHAMMAD FAZEL-ZARANDI, JONATHAN S. FEINSTEIN, EDWARD H. KAPLAN

SEPTEMBER 21, 2018

Generally accepted estimates put the population of undocumented immigrants in the United States at approximately 11.3 million. A new study, using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, suggests that the actual undocumented immigrant population may be more than 22 million.

… But a paper by three Yale-affiliated researchers suggests all the perceptions and arguments based on that number may have a faulty foundation; the actual population of undocumented immigrants residing in the country is much larger than that, perhaps twice as high, and has been underestimated for decades.

Using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, the researchers estimate there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Even using parameters intentionally aimed at producing an extremely conservative estimate, they found a population of 16.7 million undocumented immigrants.

Read the study: The Number of Undocumented Immigrants in the United States: Estimates Based on Demographic Modeling with Data from 1990 to 2016

The results, published in PLOS ONE, surprised the authors themselves. They started with the extremely conservative model and expected the results to be well below 11.3 million.

“Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” says Edward Kaplan, the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50% higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”

Jonathan Feinstein, the John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale SOM, adds, “There’s a number that everybody quotes, but when you actually dig down and say, ‘What is it based on?’ You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach.”

The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Mohammad Fazel‐Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and formerly a postdoctoral associate and lecturer in operations at the Yale School of Management. That made the researchers curious—could they reproduce the number using a different methodology?

The approach in the new research was based on operational data, such as deportations and visa overstays, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates. “We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Kaplan says. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”

… After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million, with 22.1 million as the mean.

Notably, the upper bound of the traditional survey approach, which also produces a range, doesn’t overlap with the lower bound of the new modeling method. “There really is some open water between these estimates,” Kaplan says. He believes that means the differences between the approaches can’t be explained by sampling variability or annual fluctuations.

There are key areas of agreement between this paper and the existing survey numbers. Both methods found that the greatest growth of the undocumented population happened in the 1990s and early 2000s. Both found that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008.

I don’t have a strong opinion on whether the Pew estimate or the Yale estimate is more statistically valid. I do have an opinion on the meta-issue. As I wrote in January:

Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

Knowing how many people live in your country is something that governments have undertaken to find out for over two thousand years. There are at least three censuses mentioned in the Bible, two in the Old Testament. For the U.S. government to not know within an 8 digit number, because illegal aliens are considered sacred and mysterious, is nuts.

Obviously, whatever the number is, it’s extremely relevant to policy issues like amnesty. And yet for many years we’ve been stuck with just the Pew number because our country’s establishment has a negligent attitude about illegal immigration: Don’t study it too hard because you might find out something the Deplorables will find interesting.

 
Hide 86 CommentsLeave a Comment
Commenters to Ignore...to FollowEndorsed Only
Trim Comments?
    []
  1. anon[354] • Disclaimer says:

    So that’s how Trump is putting together this economic miracle. As Dan Quayle said DIVERSITY IS OUR STRENGTH!

    • Replies: @Hubbub
  2. We need an immigration moratorium and illegal alien ejection

    • Agree: Mr. Rational, Corn
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    , @Wilkey
    , @anon
  3. trelane says:

    Undocumented immigrants. Got it, that’s the term to be used for illegal aliens.

    The authors of this piece, MOHAMMAD FAZEL-ZARANDI, JONATHAN S. FEINSTEIN, EDWARD H. KAPLAN.

  4. this and more was evident long ago:

    for 20 years the (((MSM))) has been bloviating about “11 million undocumented ‘workers’”.

    since the wetbacks (and other illegals) come in at an average rate of c. 1 million per year

    this indicates an actual total of c. 30,000,000 illegals.

    not to mention the 3 million shitskins who get in “legally” every year.

    but by all means keep on voting

    suckers

  5. J.Ross says: • Website

    We seem to be seeing a certain amount of cautious walkback by the Progress Cult, but it’s surely just because of the elections coming up, and there is no yielding on fundamentals or behavior.
    OT In line with the notion that visiting a web site and reporting on what you read there is investigative journalism, behold A Quantitative Aproach To Understanding Online Anti-Semitism.
    http://archive.is/01zLPhttp://i.4cdn.org/pol/1537561370565.jpg

  6. Forbes says:

    Study gets pulled, publication, University to offer profound apology in…3…2…1…

    • Replies: @International Jew
  7. anon[246] • Disclaimer says:

    We need a business model for people to make a profit from deportations. If companies can make money deporting illegals, the system will kick in gear and start moving them out.
    The law doesn’t rule our country – profit does.

  8. Hubbub says:
    @anon

    Diversity is a pain in – among other places – the a*s.

  9. Closer to 40M but at least they are going in the right direction.
    Just tens of millions of invading 3rd worlders, ho hum nothing to see here folks

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  10. IHTG says:

    Rare Kaus vs Krikorian:

    • Replies: @Lot
    , @Thulean Friend
  11. @anon

    We need a business model for people to make a profit from deportations. If companies can make money deporting illegals, the system will kick in gear and start moving them out.

    Great post. I have been suggesting this for a long time.

    Broke: drain the swamp

    Woke: make a new swamp and use it to push out the old swamp

  12. We’re even more diverse than we thought!

    Since diversity is our strength, that means we’re even stronger than we thought!

  13. J.Ross says: • Website

    OT RUSSIAN HACKERS! How many Americans must be sacrificed to this false idol?
    Twitter is censoring accounts on the basis that they “could impact the election.” This is a censorship basis alongside, say, containing offensive material or making threats. So discuss things, but not politics when there’s an election coming.

    So remember back in mid-July when [pol] pushed the #NoMenMidterms? Apparently James Woods and others were all banned until they removed their posts mentioning #NoMenMidterms.

  14. eah says:

    In some DE circles this is called ‘Geburtendschihad’ (birthrate jihad)

    • Replies: @bomag
  15. Dtbb says:
    @anon

    Simple. Put a bounty on every illegal aliens head. $1000 per sounds about right to me.

  16. ” For the U.S. government to not know within an 8 digit number… is nuts. ” is WRONG. It is not nuts if your object is the end of the US as it was constituted, and that is their goal. No one in the US government of any note, at any level, in any department has any interest in knowing the number of illegal immigrants because these people do not believe that ANYONE in the US is an illegal immigrant. The prevailing opinion expressed and enforced by our governing class is that the US is a freely available haven for anyone that can reach the US, as long as they are not self identifying as white European.

    I am 57. I will probably be OK through the end of a three-score and ten life. Not so much for the crowd coming up. Stand by for heavy swells, all you Americans. White, black, red and yellow alike. The people coming here have no shared interest in this nation with you at all, and are actively discouraged from developing any. The flood is here, and the tide has not begun to make yet.

  17. @anon

    Many airlines routinely lose money. But if the Gubmint paid the airlines on “takeaway” we might see quite the improvement of demographics in just a few years. Of course, one-way statute, biometric exit strictly applied, etc. With elebendy-gazillion illegal aliens the airlines could make money hand over fist for years.
    The deportees could apply their skills learned here in their home countries to improve things, seeing how they are all brain surgeons and valedictorians and geniuses and like totally awesome at everything always.
    Why, it is a way us greedy Americans could “give back” !!

    • Agree: bomag
    • LOL: Mr. Rational
  18. Anon[121] • Disclaimer says:

    Surprise, surprise.

  19. Lot says:

    If the illegal count is way off, there is a likely massive undercount of the Hispanic population. But that in turn would mean Hispanics have lower birthrates than expected, because birth data seems to match census data. And like homacide rates and crime, birth data is the most accurate demographic data.

    Anecdotally the illegal population seems to be lower in Southern California than ten years ago, but higher in middle america. I just don’t see nearly as many FOB mexicans speaking spanish as I used to.

  20. Lot says:
    @IHTG

    Three B-school dudes v Krikorian, hmmm I will bet on Mark.

    The other super high illegal population estimate that Coulter latched onto was done up by a 20-something investment bank guy pumping the stock of a company that served “unbanked” illegals.

    Pew Hispanic by contrast has demographers who specialize in US Hispanic issues.

  21. @trelane

    I personally like term the “illegal refugees”.

    • Replies: @anon
  22. @anon

    Have you seen the news lately. Greedy corporate overlords are making money off of deporting Better Than You Americans!

  23. Lot says:

    “… After running 1,000,000 simulations of the model, the researchers’ 95% probability range is 16 million to 29 million”

    First off, who does this Monte Carlo crap in demographic estimates? I’ve never seen it. Second, a range of 16 to 29 means they don’t know what they are doing.

    “Starting from a known population size at a given date, the population size at a future date equals the starting value plus the cumulative inflows minus the cumulative outflows.”

    Except that illegals go home voluntarily all the time, and nobody attempts to track this.

    • Replies: @anon
  24. Svigor says:

    WNs have been saying 20m for 20 years now. So it’s probably more like 30m+ at this point.

    Small dissident right has ideology with more predictive power than all MotU’s horses and all MotU’s men.

    I’m shocked.

    OT:

    Mark Levin: Don’t Fire Rod Rosenstein; New York Times Article May Be a Setup

    (((Pollak))) says that (((Levin))) warns “fellow white folks” not to come to conclusions about (((Rosenstein))).

    Everybody got that?

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @unpc downunder
  25. J.Ross says: • Website

    OT very nice if somewhat technical article on an unexamined nuisance: the folks who brought you pop up ads, completely irrelevant tabloid headline type ads (“One Wierd Trick”), and ads that violate your privacy, are hard at work defeating your ad blocker. Parallel to this, the Do Not Call List appears to have been defeated. I’m not yet sure how, although it was always vulnerable to globalism. Try telling some Chinese guy with a list of American phone numbers about the Do Not Call List. Go ahead, try it.
    https://www.nexisonline.net/index.php/2018/09/20/4chans-new-ad-loader-and-canvas-fingerprinting-accusations/

  26. Haven’t right wing media people, eg. Ann Coulter, been saying this for over a decade? Was this really the first study to conclude the number was much bigger than 11 million?

    “Small Earth” conspiracy theory has taken a blow with this news.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
  27. @Anthony Wayne

    Some investment bankers came up with somewhere around 30 million about a dozen years ago.

    But the number of studies is awfully small considering the importance of the topic.

  28. Goatweed says:

    No aliens should be included when we apportion seats in Congress.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Lot
  29. anonymous[573] • Disclaimer says:

    They’ve been using the 11M number for how many years now? As if everything were frozen ten years ago and nothing has happened since then. The intent was always to deceive the public by lowballing the actual number. Everyone concerned with the subject and in a position to view the situation have known that the actual numbers could only be a multiple of that being claimed. Fake numbers.

  30. istevefan says:

    Some of you may have read this, but i just came across it. This article by an Argentine details how Argentina went from an overwhelmingly European nation to what it is today. It’s entitled Argentina: A Mirror of Your Future. Here is an excerpt:

    Very little is left today of that Argentina. It began to fade during the Great Depression in the 1930s. Many historians blame the closing of international markets after the Wall Street Crash—that was certainly a factor—but there was another cause: European immigration stopped. Instead, there was migration of Mestizos and Amerindians, both from the country to the city and from neighboring Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, and Chile. These new arrivals were prolific and ringed the main cities—Buenos Aires, Rosario, Cordoba, Mendoza—with belts of poverty. Unlike the Europeans, whose arrival was planned and encouraged, Amerindian migration was uncontrolled. White Argentina looked the other way.

    With no European immigration, Paraguayans became the largest foreign community, followed by Bolivians, Peruvians, and Chileans. During the 1990s, Paraguayan immigration increased by 30 percent, and during the same decade, Peruvian immigration increased fourfold, from 16,000 to 88,000 per year. Between 1980 and 2001, Bolivian immigration grew 62.3 percent.

    In 30 years, a good migration policy transformed Argentina into one of the best places on earth. From 1880 to 1910, six million Europeans chose to come to my country rather than to the United States. Later, a bad migration policy—or the absence of any policy at all—drove the same country towards fragmentation and chaos. The decline accelerated between 1990 and 2017.

    In both North and South America, Hispanics are pushing relentlessly towards the higher latitudes. You Americans still have a Hispanic population that is only 17 percent of the total, a figure we reached in the 1970s. Argentina is a mirror that shows what your country will be like when that figure reaches 40 percent.

    • Agree: Lot
  31. anon[552] • Disclaimer says:
    @Lot

    Doesn’t “the cumulative outflows” cover voluntary?

    • Replies: @Lot
  32. Make no mistake, the left will spin this to their advantage. 22 million illegals means their crime rate just went down by 50%. Huzzah! Better than those meth monkey deplorables.

  33. @trelane

    Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth!

  34. No wonder we have problems with academia and governance … a lack of grasp(ing)* of simple math: Going from 11 to 22 million is a 100% increase, not 50%.

    Nice understatement, there … too bad they didn’t call it a 200% increase, that would have been racist.

    * Math is hard. Grammar is impossible.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Lowe
  35. @anon

    And that business model consists of paying bounties for those who report illegals.

  36. Travis says:

    One reason the number of current illegals is misleading, millions of those who were illegal aliens in 2000 are now legal…often via marriages and other means to obtain green cards. My wife was an illegal alien in 1999 but is now a citizen. My nanny was an illegal alien until 2016 when she married a green card holder she was able to obtain a green card for herself and children. Thus of the 11 million illegal aliens from 2000 , probably half of them are now legal, this is another reason the number of current illegal aliens is probably not 25 million today because millions of illegal aliens found a way to obtain green cards.

    starting in 2013, more illegal aliens than ever became eligible to get green cards through marriage. The expanded provisional 601-a waiver means that many applicants who previously could not qualify now have this route open to them. Before then only spouses of US citizens could apply. Now it has opened up to include among others: the spouses and children of lawful permanent residents and the adult children of citizens and lawful permanent residents. They have also expanded the definition of hardship, so more are eligible.

    A 601A Waiver allows illegal border crossers (and other immigrants unable to seek green cards in the US) to apply to Immigration for a review of their file on the grounds of hardship to their US Citizen Spouses. Essentially, the new waiver — called the “provisional” or “stateside” waiver — allows immediate relatives of U.S. citizens to apply for a waiver of the three- and ten-year bars for unlawful presence before leaving the U.S. instead of after leaving to attend their consular interview.

    When I married my wife in 1999 she had had to leave the United States before we could apply for the waiver. She returned to Chile and it took 9 months to obtain her green card and return to the United States. Now with the provisional 601A waiver my nanny was able to apply for her green cad without leaving the United States..she was still required to fly to Chile to pick obtain her green card and then return the next week. Unlike my wife who had to remain in Chile for 9 months as they processed the waiver. Obama made it much easier and thus more illegal aliens can take advantage of this..and now they can use this waiver to obtain green cards for their adult children and even their parents.

  37. @Svigor

    Is this the same group of WNs who thinks Israel wants to swamp Europe with Muslims and the West should abandon democracy just as we’re about so secure a nationalist/populist breakthrough? If so, I don’t think they’re a very reliable information source.

  38. @Steve Sailer

    I’m sure they were dismayed to find the number so small.

  39. @Unobserved Spectator

    We need an immigration moratorium and illegal alien ejection

    Careful. Someone might read that as “ejaculation”.

  40. Obviously, whatever the number is, it’s extremely relevant to policy issues like amnesty

    No, no, no, Steve. It’s only “amnesty” if they leave. If they stay, it’s welfare.

    Even if they never get a dime directly from the state, their very presence is indirect welfare. Unless you can show they pay their fair– ie, proportional– share of taxes.

  41. @Buck Turgidson

    Buck, I am with you on the 40 million, especially with the report that 67 million people in the USA speak a language other than English at home. My area is flooded with Squatamaleans all so the yuppie scum and businesses can have cheap help.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @Buck Turgidson
  42. Wilkey says:

    “Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?”

    Funny that our government wants to know every last damn little thing about its subjects (oops, I mean “citizens”) but conveniently pleads ignorance when it comes to knowing anything about how many people are here illegally or doing anything to get rid of them.

  43. Wilkey says:
    @Unobserved Spectator

    The 8-year-long Great Recession, with the massive unemployment and huge jump in use of welfare benefits, was the perfect excuse to enforce our laws and send these people home. Too bad that didn’t happen. We added $8-9 trillion in new debt during Obama’s two terms – money tbat will have to be repaid someday (I guess) that, had we sent the illegals home, we would never have needed to spend.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  44. Western says:

    And how many of these illegals have had a child who counts as a citizen? As far as I am concerned their children should also be counted as illegal, but aren’t.

  45. Anon[128] • Disclaimer says:

    The 11.3 million number is extrapolated from the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey.

    I thought that it was from the 30-year-old Pew estimate. Then Steve mentions Pew without any mention of the Census Bureau. Pew is not the same as the Census Bureau. If both of them say 12 million, from different methodologies, doesn’t that make it fairly reliable?

    At any rate, yeah, how do we not know this number for sure? This is like not knowing how many murders there are in a year. I think that these days you can live in the shadows or off the grid, but not suffer. You get housing, public aid, education, everything.

  46. @Travis

    It’s not that hard to hire citizens as nannies. We’ve managed it when we needed to.

  47. Lowe says:
    @Jim from Boston

    At that point in the article they were referring to the conservative 16.7 figure, which is roughly 50% greater than 11.3.

  48. @IHTG

    Kaus is right here. It also explains the political pressure if there’s been 22 million or so living illegally in the US for at least a decade (and the bulk of them being in the US even longer). That gives them time to politically mature and consolidate activist methods and networks.

    Ultimately it is better to have a big number, because it actually makes the case against amnesty stronger. A greater potential voting block.

    Seen in that light, it also makes perfect sense why democrats want a low estimate. That way they can pretend to be surprised when far greater numbers get amnesty when/if such a bill passes. Sort of a modern version of the 1965 immigration act.

  49. @istevefan

    I’ve read it. It’s a weak article. He mostly spergs about muh tax cuts. Someone like him would be deeply unhappy in a homogenous country like Denmark with high taxes and a lot of social welfare – even if it would be very rich and safe.

  50. Seems that there are some concerns raised with the study.

    • Replies: @Lot
  51. Lot says:
    @anon

    There isn’t data on illegals returning home voluntarily for them to use.

  52. Lot says:
    @Travis

    “One reason the number of current illegals is misleading, millions of those who were illegal aliens in 2000 are now legal”

    Exactly. Illegals keep coming in, but they also keep leaving, dying, and gaining legal status.

    I think Pew is far more likely to have the accurate estimate than b-school bros dipping their toes into demography.

    However, the far more important issue is the size of the Global South population in the West.

  53. Lot says:
    @Thulean Friend

    Thanks. Same thing I said years ago when Coulter was pushing that stupid 30 million estimate: that doesn’t match up with any other source of demographic data. They go one by one in how the 11-12 million estimate aligns with all sorts of other sources, but “16-29 million” means every one of those sources are wrong.

    Restrictionists have facts and data on our side. We don’t need to rely on cherry picked BS studies like this.

  54. @istevefan

    James Joyce’s short story “Eveline” is about Irish emigration to Buenos Aires.

  55. Lot says:
    @Goatweed

    Ed Blum has been pushing this for years, he even took it to the Supreme Court. Texas is the obvious place to start, as the GOP grip is looking tenuous. It is more likely to be allowed on state legislative districts rather than US House districts.

  56. @Forbes

    No, 22 million is about to become the new accepted number. The Narrative is ready. The old line was: It’s just 11 million, been that for twenty years, nothing to worry about. The new line will be: it’s doubled and is going to double again, might as well surrender.

  57. 3g4me says:
    @Travis

    @35 Travis: “My wife was an illegal alien in 1999 but is now a citizen. My nanny was an illegal alien until 2016 when she married a green card holder she was able to obtain a green card for herself and children. ”

    The very epitome of a model modern American. You disgust me.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  58. @anon

    Won’t say that’s not clever or that it wouldn’t be effective. It is and probably would be.

    Sigh, though. So every large scale action must serve economic interests. One either finds a way for his big idea to please the likes of Jeffrey Preston Jorgensen or they can give up on it. That’s the world we live in, I guess. Life and liberty, maybe, but above all the pursuit of profit.

  59. binkyxz3 says:

    This is akin to slowly heating the frog in the pan of water. The idea is to not panic the displaced population until power is insurmountable. Complimentary tactic is that government on many levels (schools, police, census) is instructed to not ask anyone’s residence status.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  60. El Dato says:
    @trelane

    It’s been for some time now… where have you been?

  61. This is consequential information.

    I suspect the same massive under-count applies in many European countries. How many African migrants are living in France, for example? The accepted numbers of illegal immigrants could be off by millions in many European contexts. How about in the UK, Ireland, Greece, Italy, etc. Hiding and distorting the figures for political correctness could come back to the haunt all of Europe. O what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  62. Meh! Just means we’re a few years closer to the day we are expelled as unwanted occupiers.

  63. Anonymous[764] • Disclaimer says:

    Of course, when Schaeffer’s number is taken into account, the future implications for the USA’s fiscal solvency, in particular the affordability of social security and medicaid, are profound, to say the very least.

    There’s good reason why the powers-that-be *choose* to obfuscate and downplay those numbers.

  64. bomag says:
    @eah

    Blowing bubbles; as good a symbol as anything.

  65. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @Jim Don Bob

    Hot and cold running Mixtecs.

    Sure beats a hot/cold mixtap in the oneupmanship stakes.

  66. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:
    @3g4me

    Apologies to Gilbert & Sullivan.

  67. bomag says:
    @Travis

    The expanded provisional 601-a waiver means that many applicants who previously could not qualify now have this route open to them.

    So the world is run by bureaucratic chicanery that flies under the radar; the radar being overwhelmed today.

  68. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    Back to a good ol’ Sailer staple:

    Surely, if the data of the gross aggregate toilet roll sales in the USA are collated – surely, this is no mean feat, and all the big toilet roll firms have this data down to the last roll, for many many decades, a truly accurate estimate of the US population can be gauged and compared against the ‘official’ census figures. The remainder, if any, would surely be the best evidence of the size of the illegal population, never mind all the statistical hocus pocus.

    The one certainty we can say about every warm body currently on US soil (no pun) is that, ahem, ‘they used the bathroom’ (to use that odd, squeamish, unaccurate and prurient Americanism) at least once today.

    • Replies: @jim jones
    , @Mr. Rational
  69. Anonymous[367] • Disclaimer says:

    In the same way the UK government has persistently claimed that there are ‘only’ around ’2.5 million Muslims’ in the UK for the past 40 years, at least.

    Strange how that same old 2.5 million number is trotted out again and again and accepted, unquestioned, year after year.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  70. jim jones says:
    @Anonymous

    The Government says that there are 59 million people here in the UK but estimates based on supermarket sales say there are 80 million:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/city-eye-facts-on-a-plate-our-population-is-at-least-77-million-5328454.html

  71. KenH says:

    So now we know the 11 million figure they’ve been using since the late 90′s is bunkum and the estimates of 20 million or more illegal aliens isn’t right wing and “white supremacist” paranoia after all. We have a serious problem when we only deport around 1% of this number annually.

    Trump really hasn’t moved the goalposts in terms of number of deportations and we’ve just returned to Dubya era deportation levels. MAGA, I guess.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  72. @binkyxz3

    Same reason France does not allow collection of demographic statistics, and researchers have to use proxies like numbers of tests for sickle-cell and thallasemias.  They don’t want the rubes to have anything that will drive support to the FN.

  73. @Anonymous

    The one certainty we can say about every warm body currently on US soil (no pun) is that, ahem, ‘they used the bathroom’ (to use that odd, squeamish, unaccurate and prurient Americanism) at least once today.

    I wouldn’t take that as a hard and fast guide.  I go through about 1 roll per month, being frugal.  An ex of mine would go through closer to 1 roll per DAY, preferring to wrap her entire hand in several layers (front AND back) before wiping.  And then you have the cultures* which have the, uh, paperless bathroom.

    * The cultures you can get off the left hands of people in those cultures must be awfully scary.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  74. I wrote this in January of 2018:

    The PEW Research Center is a tax-dodge outfit that pushes globalization, plutocracy and open borders mass immigration. Perhaps PEW is good to use as a ruling class approved starting point on opinion surveys and numerical population counts, but the PEW people should not be trusted to be neutral observers of the passing political scene.

    White Core American Patriots will have to financially liquidate certain plutocrat globalizer foundations and so-called “charitable trusts” when the time comes. The PEW Charitable Trusts should be high on the list for plundering to dole out rewards to our people.

    I must admit that I thought 6 foot tall Coulter was telling tall tales about there being thirty(30) million illegal alien invaders in the United States. I guess she was right after all. Ann Coulter was using a banker estimate derived at by looking at transnational remittances and the like.

    Tweets from 2015:

  75. @Steve Sailer

    Some investment bankers came up with somewhere around 30 million about a dozen years ago.

    That’s what Connecticut Ann Coulter used as her justification for her claim of there being upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the United States.

    OFF TOPIC

    I hope shady shyster Ted Cruz loses in Texas.

    Ted “Goldman Sachs Husband” Cruz is back to the “legal immigration good; illegal immigration bad” bullshit. That crap was stale 40 years ago, but Ted Cruz and his donors are sticking to that story until the end.

    • Troll: IHTG
  76. @Charles Pewitt

    How is it possible to determine how many illegals there are without going door-to-door and doing a head count? And even then we couldn’t be certain how accurate the number really is. We know they’re out there but since they are “undocumented” how can we ever know how many there really are without a foolproof method of separating legals from illegals? We can only guess at the number–and it says here that it’s a LOT more than 11 million.

  77. @Jim Don Bob

    I have to visit a large, 12-story office building for some medical appointments. The building is full of medical offices and specialties of all sorts. 90%+ of the patients are from the third world, and almost none of them look like they speak English. There are some pediatric offices and the building teems with pregnant latinas with 2, 3, even 4 kids under the age of 5-6.

    I don’t know whether to get my blood pressure up or barf when I see this spectacle, knowing that the taxpayers are on the hook for it all. This is in the big city and I don’t think people in flyover country have the slightest idea that this scene is played out in every big city in America.

    It makes me want to retire and go off the grid just so I can visit an MD in a health center not overrun by the 3rd world.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
  78. @Charles Pewitt

    Big city sjw communists view the pew center the same way they view npr or pbs: a purely nonpartisan, objective voice of entirely factual reporting, without the slightest hint of bias.

  79. anon[694] • Disclaimer says:
    @Unobserved Spectator

    Not just illegal alien, repatriate all non-citizens period. Plus a 50 year moratorium on all immigration. No more green cards, resident visas or new citizenship granted for the next 50 years.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  80. @Buck Turgidson

    Same thing at my local hospital.

    2) The Center for Immigration Studies says 22 million iilegals is not plausible: https://cis.org/Camarota/New-Estimate-22-Million-Illegal-Immigrants-Not-Plausible

    There’s a whole lot more of them than there were 10 years ago.

  81. Ragno says:

    Who didn’t know this would turn out to be the case?

    Not the Golden Brilliant Coastal Elites who have seen to it that doubters of Our National Fairytale are relentlessly depicted as either rubes in overalls, slope-browed Cossacks fondling their assault weapons or – worst of all – modern-dress Nazis disguised as STEM majors…..the GBCE knew all along the official story was a lie. Just as they knew those lies were necessary to trick white Americans into their final cul-de-sac.

    I guess if they had to reduce the complex reasoning for why they sold us so many lies designed to replace and thus erase us once and for all, it would be something catchy and all-purpose like in order to save the village we had to burn the village. Has a ring to it, doncha think?

    So let the record show that if you want genocide done right, you assign the job to your most distinguished draft-dodgers. Except they’re much too clever to allow any accurate recordkeeping in the first place.

  82. Anonymous[174] • Disclaimer says:
    @Peter Johnson

    Apparently, if you want to know how many people are living in a particular locality you ask the sewage company. They know better than the government.

  83. Anonymous[174] • Disclaimer says:
    @KenH

    I understand the election of Trump actually caused a surge of immigration, as people rushed to get in before the doors closed.

  84. Anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mr. Rational

    Surely, statistical science using large enough sample size groups, geographically dispersed etc, and comparing confidence limits, standard deviations etc, could come up with a very accurate ‘average’ per capita toilet roll usage per annum (or whatever). If we make the assumption that is ‘average’ is constant amongst all ethnies and social classes, surely a damned accurate population estimate can be made.

Current Commenter
says:

Leave a Reply - Comments are moderated by iSteve, at whim.


 Remember My InformationWhy?
 Email Replies to my Comment
Submitted comments become the property of The Unz Review and may be republished elsewhere at the sole discretion of the latter
Subscribe to This Comment Thread via RSS Subscribe to All Steve Sailer Comments via RSS
PastClassics
Are elite university admissions based on meritocracy and diversity as claimed?
What Was John McCain's True Wartime Record in Vietnam?
Hundreds of POWs may have been left to die in Vietnam, abandoned by their government—and our media.
The evidence is clear — but often ignored
The “war hero” candidate buried information about POWs left behind in Vietnam.