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Yale Researchers: Not 11 Million But "22.8 Million Undocumented Immigrants"
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From Georgia Tech’s website:

Seminar- Mohammad Fazel Zarandi
Time: Monday, 4 December 2017 – 11:00am to 12:00pm

TITLE: The Number of Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

ABSTRACT:

We apply standard operational principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that has only recently become available. We generate a lower bound for the number of undocumented immigrants using conservative parameter values that underestimate inflows and overestimate outflows. Our lower bound is close to 17 million, 50% higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. Standard parameter values generate an estimate of 22.8 million undocumented immigrants, twice as large as the current estimate.

BIO: Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi is a Postdoctoral Associate and Lecturer at the Yale School of Management. His research interests are in the areas of Public Sector Operations, Data-Driven Decision Making, Applied Probabilistic Modeling and Statistics, and Operations Strategy. His current research focuses on the application of Operations techniques to improve decision making in the public policy domain. Before joining Yale, he received his PhD from the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto in Operations Management and his M.Sc. in Industrial Engineering from the University of Toronto.

The co-authors of this unpublished paper are Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein.

This news seems rather timely.

Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

Knowing how many people live in your country is something that governments have undertaken to find out for over two thousand years. There are at least three censuses mentioned in the Bible, two in the Old Testament. For the U.S. government to not know within an 8 digit number, because illegal aliens are considered sacred and mysterious, is nuts.

 
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  1. Seize him!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    IKR? But "The co-authors of this unpublished paper are Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein." Jeez, Steve, don't you think a couple of Yale professors could have published this if they'd wanted to?

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi's motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn't?

    Of course, we've seen more than once lately that even tenure is no defense against an assault upon the Zeroth Amendment, that Most Sacred Scripture of Who We Are. Then again, two of these three players have immunity, which is even better than tenure. Now where's my popcorn?

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  2. Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!

    Did I hear that “dreamers” were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?

    Is that correct?

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.

    Update:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.
     
    Pretty much true, though it would help if he had some basis which even the Establishment had trouble denying. Say if it came from a couple of Jewish Yale Professors.

    Nonetheless your point is valid--if only Trump had someone plugged-in on his staff he could be mopping the floor with his enemies. It would be such good sport. Where's Stephen Miller when we need him? Trying to get someone else fired?

    , @Mr. Anon

    Did I hear that “dreamers” were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?
     
    800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that's the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.

    It should be remembered that DACA is illegal. It is not a law passed by Congress. It was a diktat issued by Obama (who had no legitimate authority to do so) to NOT enforce existing law for a particular class of people. It would be like the local DA and police saying that if someone broke into your house with his kid, then his kid could stay in your house, and the police would make no attempt to remove him.

    In her book Adios America Ann Coulter describes cases where people signed up for a temporary amnesty for agricultural workers who were in America for a fixed, limited period of time, about a year sometime in the 1980s. There were people who singed up for it, even though their immigration papers clearly show they first entered the country long after that window. A couple of the World Trade Center bombers of 1993 got that amnesty too. Even though they were middle-eastern muslims, living and working in New York City and New Jersey, they claimed to have been "agricultural workers".

    And that particular amnesty was sponsored in the Congress by................................Chuck Schumer.

    And now you know.......................the rest of the story.

    Between the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the recent vehicle attack on that bike path, just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?
    , @Alec Leamas

    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!
     
    They're already almost certainly counted for the purposes of Congressional apportionment.

    22.8 Million / 710,000 per District = 32 House Members, which is greater than the margin between the majority and minority parties.

    If you presume that the majority of illegals are in States like California, New Jersey and Illinois, the Democrats already probably have a built-in advantage of a couple dozen seats which are apportioned as a consequence of the presence of illegals. This really brings "Sanctuary Cities" and "Sanctuary States" into focus.
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  3. See, this just goes to show that we cannot possibly have law. Unless they’re wrong and the number is significantly lower, in which case it just goes to show that we need to let in more.

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  4. 17 million people is the population of Chile. 23 million people is roughly the population of Taiwan. I am just going to guess that 28 million is about where the upper bound is and that would be around Yemen or Nepal.

    Assuming they are proportionally allocated as they are now that would mean over 5 million illegals in California. If they were their own state they would rank 23rd ahead of South Carolina and it would be entitled to 7 representatives in the US House.

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I'm not disagreeing with your numbers, WillBest, but why do you rank just the California illegal aliens in comparison? Yeah, all the illegal aliens together would be a larger number than the population of Florida, the 3rd most populous, and only below California and Texas. If it were it's own state with electors, the State of Illegals would have 28 or 29 electoral votes.
    , @27 year old

    If [illegal immigrants] were their own state they would rank 23rd ahead of South Carolina and it would be entitled to 7 representatives in the US House.
     
    Getting down to only 7 reps representing illegal immigrants would be a huge improvement. They have at least two hundred reliable votes now.
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  5. Ann Coulter has been saying this.

    Google “population of the United States” and you get a figure of 323 million. My question is whether the 12 million additional illegal immigrants are in addition to the 323 million, or do they just displace some other part of the 323 million that was overestimated?

    My guess is the former, in which case a more accurate total population figure is 335 milllion. And this chimes with my own observation, particularly in cities, that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the “official” figures on population growth.

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    I have been saying 25 to 40 million for a long while, and yes, Ann Coulter has written lots of times in exasperation at people still using a number estimated in 2000 or so, and not particularly accurate even then.

    I'm not too far off from these guys - one man's rectal extraction is another man's raw data .. or something like that ...

    , @J1234
    I guess that the folks in academia think it's time to fess up about the official illegal alien numbers being half of what they should've been. And why would they do this? Because now that deportation is becoming a reality (to one degree or another), they can make the "human tragedy" appear far greater with the larger actual figure.

    They'll call it the "Deport-ocaust."

    , @Peter Akuleyev
    that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the “official” figures on population growth.

    I suspect the 12 million additional undocumented is correct as well, but come on, arguments that you could "eyeball" that or "have a sense that places are more crowded than you might expect" are kind of out there. The US is a huge sprawling land mass, and it is simply impossible as an individual to have any real perspective (which of course works in the government's favor) without spending hours and hours analyzing statistics and data. Many parts of the US are losing population despite tremendous immigrant inflows simply because the trend is towards urbanization and abandoning distant rural communities with poor infrastructure. If you live in a sunbelt state things are going to seem a lot more crowded over the last two decades than if you live in Maine or upstate New York.

    But if I was going to go on "hunches" and "instinct", I would also guess that a large percentage of these millions of hidden illegals are from Asia, not Latin America. I wonder if the paper addresses that.
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  6. @eD
    Ann Coulter has been saying this.

    Google "population of the United States" and you get a figure of 323 million. My question is whether the 12 million additional illegal immigrants are in addition to the 323 million, or do they just displace some other part of the 323 million that was overestimated?

    My guess is the former, in which case a more accurate total population figure is 335 milllion. And this chimes with my own observation, particularly in cities, that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the "official" figures on population growth.

    I have been saying 25 to 40 million for a long while, and yes, Ann Coulter has written lots of times in exasperation at people still using a number estimated in 2000 or so, and not particularly accurate even then.

    I’m not too far off from these guys – one man’s rectal extraction is another man’s raw data .. or something like that …

    Read More
    • Replies: @Neoconned
    The media news wires like Reuters used to use a "12 to 20 million" figure. Shockjock Michael Savage used to say 30 million.... This was circa 2008...
    , @Jim Don Bob

    I have been saying 25 to 40 million
     
    1 in 5 people in the USA speak a a language other than English at home. That is 60 million people. Somehow I doubt they learned that foreign language at the local immersion elementary school.

    No more immigrants period for the next 10 years!
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  7. @WillBest
    17 million people is the population of Chile. 23 million people is roughly the population of Taiwan. I am just going to guess that 28 million is about where the upper bound is and that would be around Yemen or Nepal.

    Assuming they are proportionally allocated as they are now that would mean over 5 million illegals in California. If they were their own state they would rank 23rd ahead of South Carolina and it would be entitled to 7 representatives in the US House.

    I’m not disagreeing with your numbers, WillBest, but why do you rank just the California illegal aliens in comparison? Yeah, all the illegal aliens together would be a larger number than the population of Florida, the 3rd most populous, and only below California and Texas. If it were it’s own state with electors, the State of Illegals would have 28 or 29 electoral votes.

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  8. They’ve been tossing around the number of 11M for the past twelve years or so as if everything were static all this time. Surprise surprise, we’ve been lied to yet again. 22.8M might actually be too low.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don't know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn't seem as stable as Pew's regular 11 million.

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  9. @Holden McGroin III
    Seize him!

    IKR? But “The co-authors of this unpublished paper are Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein.” Jeez, Steve, don’t you think a couple of Yale professors could have published this if they’d wanted to?

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi’s motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn’t?

    Of course, we’ve seen more than once lately that even tenure is no defense against an assault upon the Zeroth Amendment, that Most Sacred Scripture of Who We Are. Then again, two of these three players have immunity, which is even better than tenure. Now where’s my popcorn?

    Read More
    • Replies: @PiltdownMan

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi’s motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn’t?
     
    Er, his CV explicitly labels the paper as a "Job Market Paper." I'm pretty sympathetic to the guy because he's an operations research guy. That's what I was when I started my career in industry, albeit one with only modest ability. I'm really curious about the paper and the quantitative methodology. I expect we'll get to see it in time. Applied OR and management science types tend to be smart, pragmatic and super-creative in sussing out the answers to real world mysteries that happen to have any numerical angle. Like this one.
    , @Ali Choudhury
    It is a working paper, meaning it is still being worked on prior to submission to an academic journal whereupon it will be reviewed and either accepted for publication following the addressing of review comments or rejected.
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  10. Anon • Disclaimer says:

    These numbers constitute nothing less than an invasion, if true – supported by one of the major political parties and their media assets. If the Chinese army invaded California and dumped in 100 million of their people, would we consider their votes and their children’s votes in our elections legitimate? Didn’t our military take an oath to defend our country against all enemies, foreign and domestic? A certain party that wants to create a one party rule for itself via immigration isn’t a domestic enemy? These people aren’t traitors? If the Swedish PM can send in the military to deal with immigrant gangs, can’t Trump send in the military to deal with the Democrats?

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    • Agree: ben tillman
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  11. @anonymous
    They've been tossing around the number of 11M for the past twelve years or so as if everything were static all this time. Surprise surprise, we've been lied to yet again. 22.8M might actually be too low.

    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don’t know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn’t seem as stable as Pew’s regular 11 million.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Even if your traffic anecdote is meaningful, it definitely doesn't apply to other places--around the Nation's Capital, for example. The flood has kept right on coming.
    , @Lot
    Another way you saw the decline was the frequency of hearing Spanish in public places. The chance of the Mestizo-On-The-Street speaking spanish or poor and accented English is much lower than a decade ago, the chance of hearing General American is much higher.
    , @Charles Pewitt
    2015 Tweet from Steve Sailer:

    https://twitter.com/Steve_Sailer/status/647428427318870016
    , @Malcolm X-Lax
    Whenever I'm stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the 405 at 2 pm on a Saturday, I always think, "Who the f*** wants more people in this state?!"
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  12. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @wren
    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!

    Did I hear that "dreamers" were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?

    Is that correct?

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.

    Update:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.

    Pretty much true, though it would help if he had some basis which even the Establishment had trouble denying. Say if it came from a couple of Jewish Yale Professors.

    Nonetheless your point is valid–if only Trump had someone plugged-in on his staff he could be mopping the floor with his enemies. It would be such good sport. Where’s Stephen Miller when we need him? Trying to get someone else fired?

    Read More
    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Pretty much true, though it would help if he had some basis which even the Establishment had trouble denying. Say if it came from a couple of Jewish Yale Professors.
     
    LOL!!! That was awesome!
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  13. It’s about time someone besides Ann Coulter put out a more realistic number. It seems like we’ve been stuck on that 10 to 12 million figure for 20 years. Let’s hope Trump gets a hold of this and tweets it. That will create another s-storm and at least get the general population to take note.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Why doesn't Sailer tweet it at Trump directly? I hear he's extremely vain and might just notice if done at a low volume time, say 3 am-ish.
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  14. @eD
    Ann Coulter has been saying this.

    Google "population of the United States" and you get a figure of 323 million. My question is whether the 12 million additional illegal immigrants are in addition to the 323 million, or do they just displace some other part of the 323 million that was overestimated?

    My guess is the former, in which case a more accurate total population figure is 335 milllion. And this chimes with my own observation, particularly in cities, that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the "official" figures on population growth.

    I guess that the folks in academia think it’s time to fess up about the official illegal alien numbers being half of what they should’ve been. And why would they do this? Because now that deportation is becoming a reality (to one degree or another), they can make the “human tragedy” appear far greater with the larger actual figure.

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @guest
    "They'll call it the 'Deport-ocaust'"

    Will it be the 11 million (never forget!)? Or shall they revise it upwards, for greater effect?

    I can't deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing. And that's one of the reasons I want it to happen.
    , @Intelligent Dasein

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”
     
    I don't think that's going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and "breaking up families" and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That's why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word "immigrant" paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of "poor families" you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly "in the air" and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The "infeasibility"of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed's bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.
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  15. @istevefan
    It's about time someone besides Ann Coulter put out a more realistic number. It seems like we've been stuck on that 10 to 12 million figure for 20 years. Let's hope Trump gets a hold of this and tweets it. That will create another s-storm and at least get the general population to take note.

    Why doesn’t Sailer tweet it at Trump directly? I hear he’s extremely vain and might just notice if done at a low volume time, say 3 am-ish.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    I can't even find Stephen Miller's handle. Trump receives millions of tweets per day btw.
    , @Dave Pinsen
    What Anonymous said. Trump gets way too many tweets per day for that to work. A few years ago, even I could get a retweet from Trump.

    Steve might have better luck with Trump, Jr., or someone else in Trump's circle.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/544475534227693568
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  16. @Anon
    Why doesn't Sailer tweet it at Trump directly? I hear he's extremely vain and might just notice if done at a low volume time, say 3 am-ish.

    I can’t even find Stephen Miller’s handle. Trump receives millions of tweets per day btw.

    Read More
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  17. This just in: Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein have gone missing; Neo-Nazis presumed responsible.

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  18. Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

    What our “government of the people” knows and what it’s actually willing to tell us are two entirely different matters. I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens? If they don’t know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    It’s effing pathetic what the government is unwilling to tell its subje….err, citizens.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    The CIA? The amateurs who let a national mission get wiped out because they thought it was good opsec to hire in one of their targets? The FBI? The agency committing sedition as an "insurance policy" against democracy? The IRS? Maybe the IRS.
    , @Peter Akuleyev
    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people

    Who is "they"? The more time you spend with people who actually work in government, the more you realize how lucky we are anything functions at all. Mostly government officials just operate the systems that evolve bureaucratically over time and don't ask too many questions. Garbage in - garbage out.
    , @Achmed E. Newman

    If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens?
     
    Nothing, just that.

    If they don’t know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?
     
    Because Americans won't take a stand just for silly things like "muh Constitution".

    Any other questions? I'm all ears.
    , @Anonymous

    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate ...
     
    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.

    Women staff at public agencies in many states fall over themselves to provide "services" (i.e. our money) to illegals. Meanwhile, the government-media complex paints the illegal multitudes as persecuted victims.

    Most insidious to the ideological health of the U.S. is the mental heritage of patrón/serf thinking imported by Central and South American invaders. Remember that the leading newspaper in the U.S., the NYT, is now at the beck and call of newowner Carlos Saleem/Slim who got rich through monopolies that kept other Mexicans poor.
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  19. @Steve Sailer
    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don't know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn't seem as stable as Pew's regular 11 million.

    Even if your traffic anecdote is meaningful, it definitely doesn’t apply to other places–around the Nation’s Capital, for example. The flood has kept right on coming.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Carbon blob
    DC's housing market didn't bottom out nearly as hard as LA's. (Also, way to go government for bailing out banks who were long on mortgages held by people who could just walk out of the country when they went belly-up.)
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  20. I wonder how the old amnesty in the ’80s related to estimates at the time. I imagine it was a significant underestimate, and that the tendency to fudge the numbers has only grown since then.

    I vaguely remember Teddy Kennedy saying that illegals were like the hostages in Iran, which, if it makes any sense at all, can only be seen as an attempt to downplay the numbers, while trying to garner sympathy (“shoot for the moon…”), and simultaneously pretend they were already Americans.

    My estimate would be 30 million, maybe more. If Trump caves (I hope he is canny enough not to), might as well skip the wall, and set up some extra machine gun nests at the new Amerimex-Guatamalan border.

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    • Replies: @Neoconned
    I was drinking at the sports bar at the Mexican restaurant here in town. Was over hearing the Mexican manager talk to this old redneck over beer at the end of the night.....he said it's his dream the USA and Mexico become one country....
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  21. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    Why would Trump want to tweet this info? It does not help Trump because Trump’s policy is to let the illegals already here STAY.

    But the argument for Trump’s position becomes untenable the higher the number of illegals actually turns out to be.

    This 22 million number puts the LIE to Trump’s position. WE CAN’T ALLOW THEM TO STAY.

    This news is bad for Trump and his inner circle of Manhattan liberal advisors. They want this buried deeper than Bannon.

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    • Replies: @Jack Hanson
    Lmao dooooooooooooooooom is another form of TDS.
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  22. Interesting, I have to read this paper. The left is not going to like this, as the author appears to be a Muslim and Canadian. Hard to sling the old ‘you are racist’ defense when facing such facts.

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term ‘undocumented immigrant’. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an ‘alien’ himself.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term ‘undocumented immigrant’. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an ‘alien’ himself.
     
    Good point, which absolutely slipped by me. Which demonstrates again how important language is to thought and how completely the MSM controls the terms of discussion. BTW, look at the actual authors of the paper, not the leader of the seminar.
    , @istevefan

    he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’.
     
    I've seen open border supporters try to imply that alien means something from outer space, and thus is an improper term to use when dealing with these people. It's like they are not aware that a lot of words have multiple meanings, and that we've been using alien for centuries prior to Spielberg's ET. In fact we even passed the Alien and Sedition Acts in the late 1700s.
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  23. The Gov/Pew estimates are done using published methods that are consistent with birth records. When I looked at Coulter’s claim it was being understated by 3x, it was thinly sourced to some random research report by a banker pumping up the stock of a company that provides financial services to unbanked illegals.

    This guy isn’t really even providing a clearly sourced and stated method.

    Basically you have to explain why all these phantom immigrants are not having any children showing up in birth records, when we know our system has large incentives for aliens to give birth in the USA.

    I can also say the number of unlawful Mexican residents in Southern California is something you see in everyday life. It went way up during the 2000s, and has gone down since the bubble popped. The big increase in the 2010s has been downscale Muslims and Africans, from virtually none 10 years ago to a few percent now. But this increase is partly legal immigrants and does not even come close to making up for the big decrease in Mexican illegal immigrants.

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  24. But shouldn’t the government _know_?

    Uhh, how would or could “the government” know? — do you really want to live in a country with a government that “knows” everything? — or among people who expect or want that?

    Read More
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    ... not that it's your fault, but aren't you, y'know, a Jerry?
    , @guest
    They don't need to know everything, but maybe knowing within ten million or so how many people are here illegally might be a good idea.

    Also, they should keep track of how many nukes we have, and what states are where. Just so as they don't trip over Kentucky when they get up at night to take a leak.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Yeah. Each state can decide how many representitives they want to have, then we don't need a cencus.
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  25. @Wilkey
    Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

    What our "government of the people" knows and what it's actually willing to tell us are two entirely different matters. I'd wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don't have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens? If they don't know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    It's effing pathetic what the government is unwilling to tell its subje....err, citizens.

    The CIA? The amateurs who let a national mission get wiped out because they thought it was good opsec to hire in one of their targets? The FBI? The agency committing sedition as an “insurance policy” against democracy? The IRS? Maybe the IRS.

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  26. Read More
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    Ridiculous this gay chump sits on the throne of St. Peter, preaching the destruction of the West. No one in the Vatican has any contacts with the Bulgarian secret police? The post-commie guys must have inherited some institutional knowledge.
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  27. @Steve Sailer
    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don't know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn't seem as stable as Pew's regular 11 million.

    Another way you saw the decline was the frequency of hearing Spanish in public places. The chance of the Mestizo-On-The-Street speaking spanish or poor and accented English is much lower than a decade ago, the chance of hearing General American is much higher.

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  28. Am assuming that getting an accurate final number would be viable if you could cross reference the IRS’s Social Security # database with municipal property tax, land use data. It is probably safe to assume the census data has been drifting further from accurate with each passing year since the late 80s.

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  29. Democrats use the 40 million figure when they want to minimize the crime rate of illegals and the 11 million figure when they want to depict their opponents as hysterical ninnies. Both figures are highly useful.

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  30. The idea of a government conspiracy on this is also implausible, both because of its complexity and because actual left wing ethnic activists lobby to have the census try to count as many illegals as possible to increase the number of minority legislative districts.

    Also, what is really the point? Does 11 v 26 million illegals actually change anyone’s mind on immigration issues? Of course not.

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    • Replies: @guest
    What's so complex about failing to Notice? It's easy.

    Thankfully, the worth of knowing things is not determined by whether it will be decisive in public policy debates. But yes! 10 million+ extra illegals would convince some people.

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  31. BTW Steve, your title here and on UNZ.COM home page read “Undocument” when they should read “Undocumented” (No need to publish this post, thanks)

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  32. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @jbwilson24
    Interesting, I have to read this paper. The left is not going to like this, as the author appears to be a Muslim and Canadian. Hard to sling the old 'you are racist' defense when facing such facts.

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term 'undocumented immigrant'. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is 'illegal alien'. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an 'alien' himself.

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term ‘undocumented immigrant’. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an ‘alien’ himself.

    Good point, which absolutely slipped by me. Which demonstrates again how important language is to thought and how completely the MSM controls the terms of discussion. BTW, look at the actual authors of the paper, not the leader of the seminar.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    Some illegal aliens are extremely well documented. The "undocumented" Steinle killer probably has 50 times more government documents about him than the average US Citizen.
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  33. @eah
    But shouldn't the government _know_?

    Uhh, how would or could "the government" know? -- do you really want to live in a country with a government that "knows" everything? -- or among people who expect or want that?

    … not that it’s your fault, but aren’t you, y’know, a Jerry?

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  34. Worked a little on the 2010 census, in an area with a relatively low Hispanic population. Came across one household that was probably illegal, but couldn’t get any data. The 14 year old who answered the door spoke English, but he was too young to legally answer questions, and he kept making excuses why his mother was unavailable. Of course, the census doesn’t try to determine immigration status, but it also undercounts the existence of these people.

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  35. @Anonymous

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term ‘undocumented immigrant’. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an ‘alien’ himself.
     
    Good point, which absolutely slipped by me. Which demonstrates again how important language is to thought and how completely the MSM controls the terms of discussion. BTW, look at the actual authors of the paper, not the leader of the seminar.

    Some illegal aliens are extremely well documented. The “undocumented” Steinle killer probably has 50 times more government documents about him than the average US Citizen.

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  36. @jbwilson24
    Interesting, I have to read this paper. The left is not going to like this, as the author appears to be a Muslim and Canadian. Hard to sling the old 'you are racist' defense when facing such facts.

    I do, however, deplore the use of the term 'undocumented immigrant'. Apparently this guy either bows to PC culture in some ways, or he is unaware that the proper term is 'illegal alien'. Unless the author is a US citizen, he is actually an 'alien' himself.

    he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’.

    I’ve seen open border supporters try to imply that alien means something from outer space, and thus is an improper term to use when dealing with these people. It’s like they are not aware that a lot of words have multiple meanings, and that we’ve been using alien for centuries prior to Spielberg’s ET. In fact we even passed the Alien and Sedition Acts in the late 1700s.

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    • Replies: @guest
    I like their argument against the "illegal" half better.

    "No person is illegal."

    Uh-what?

    It's better for your sanity to hear most of what they say as bird chirps.
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  37. Sort of OT, but an isteve theme:

    Seattle Times says 40% of areas 157,000 IT employees are foreign born: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/more-than-half-of-seattles-software-developers-were-born-outside-u-s/

    How much do these employees value American ideals such as free speech; or, when their company wants to censor users, do they see it as business as usual?

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    How much do these employees value American ideals such as free speech; or, when their company wants to censor users, do they see it as business as usual?
     
    See the Twitter "Shadow-Banning" drama from the past couple weeks. It's not so much 'their company' doing the censoring--it's them.
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  38. @Anon
    Why doesn't Sailer tweet it at Trump directly? I hear he's extremely vain and might just notice if done at a low volume time, say 3 am-ish.

    What Anonymous said. Trump gets way too many tweets per day for that to work. A few years ago, even I could get a retweet from Trump.

    Steve might have better luck with Trump, Jr., or someone else in Trump’s circle.

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  39. Years ago I read the news religiously….mainly Yahoo News that used a lot of AP & Reuters wire stories. And back from say 2006-12 the estimate given in news articles was “12 to 20 million undocumented immigrants”….I never understood where the 11 million figure came from….

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  40. @J1234
    I guess that the folks in academia think it's time to fess up about the official illegal alien numbers being half of what they should've been. And why would they do this? Because now that deportation is becoming a reality (to one degree or another), they can make the "human tragedy" appear far greater with the larger actual figure.

    They'll call it the "Deport-ocaust."

    “They’ll call it the ‘Deport-ocaust’”

    Will it be the 11 million (never forget!)? Or shall they revise it upwards, for greater effect?

    I can’t deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing. And that’s one of the reasons I want it to happen.

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    • Replies: @J1234

    I can’t deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing.
     
    It won't be ethnic cleansing, because ethnic cleansing is a deliberate action that changes the demographic character of a country or region. That more accurately describes the intentional violation or non-enforcement of immigration laws by Obama and the left for the purpose of making the US less white. The point of deportation is to uphold the law and stop using illegal immigration (and resulting amnesty) as a means to shift demographics in the left's political favor.
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  41. @eah
    But shouldn't the government _know_?

    Uhh, how would or could "the government" know? -- do you really want to live in a country with a government that "knows" everything? -- or among people who expect or want that?

    They don’t need to know everything, but maybe knowing within ten million or so how many people are here illegally might be a good idea.

    Also, they should keep track of how many nukes we have, and what states are where. Just so as they don’t trip over Kentucky when they get up at night to take a leak.

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  42. @Joe, averaged
    Sort of OT, but an isteve theme:

    Seattle Times says 40% of areas 157,000 IT employees are foreign born: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/more-than-half-of-seattles-software-developers-were-born-outside-u-s/

    How much do these employees value American ideals such as free speech; or, when their company wants to censor users, do they see it as business as usual?

    How much do these employees value American ideals such as free speech; or, when their company wants to censor users, do they see it as business as usual?

    See the Twitter “Shadow-Banning” drama from the past couple weeks. It’s not so much ‘their company’ doing the censoring–it’s them.

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  43. I feel like I’ve been hearing 11 million since the ’80s, do it has to be closer to 30 million.

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    • Replies: @Lot
    A lot of the millions of illegals in 1985 became legal the next few years under Reagan's 1986 amnesty.
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  44. @Lot
    The idea of a government conspiracy on this is also implausible, both because of its complexity and because actual left wing ethnic activists lobby to have the census try to count as many illegals as possible to increase the number of minority legislative districts.

    Also, what is really the point? Does 11 v 26 million illegals actually change anyone's mind on immigration issues? Of course not.

    What’s so complex about failing to Notice? It’s easy.

    Thankfully, the worth of knowing things is not determined by whether it will be decisive in public policy debates. But yes! 10 million+ extra illegals would convince some people.

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  45. @istevefan

    he is unaware that the proper term is ‘illegal alien’.
     
    I've seen open border supporters try to imply that alien means something from outer space, and thus is an improper term to use when dealing with these people. It's like they are not aware that a lot of words have multiple meanings, and that we've been using alien for centuries prior to Spielberg's ET. In fact we even passed the Alien and Sedition Acts in the late 1700s.

    I like their argument against the “illegal” half better.

    “No person is illegal.”

    Uh-what?

    It’s better for your sanity to hear most of what they say as bird chirps.

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  46. @Achmed E. Newman
    I have been saying 25 to 40 million for a long while, and yes, Ann Coulter has written lots of times in exasperation at people still using a number estimated in 2000 or so, and not particularly accurate even then.

    I'm not too far off from these guys - one man's rectal extraction is another man's raw data .. or something like that ...

    The media news wires like Reuters used to use a “12 to 20 million” figure. Shockjock Michael Savage used to say 30 million…. This was circa 2008…

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  47. @The Alarmist
    I feel like I've been hearing 11 million since the '80s, do it has to be closer to 30 million.

    A lot of the millions of illegals in 1985 became legal the next few years under Reagan’s 1986 amnesty.

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  48. Yale Researchers: Not 11 Million But “22.8 Million Undocumented Immigrants”

    It certainly seems silly to try to “fix the problem” with “comprehensive immigration reform” when nobody knows the scale of the problem to within better than a factor of two.

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  49. @songbird
    I wonder how the old amnesty in the '80s related to estimates at the time. I imagine it was a significant underestimate, and that the tendency to fudge the numbers has only grown since then.

    I vaguely remember Teddy Kennedy saying that illegals were like the hostages in Iran, which, if it makes any sense at all, can only be seen as an attempt to downplay the numbers, while trying to garner sympathy ("shoot for the moon..."), and simultaneously pretend they were already Americans.

    My estimate would be 30 million, maybe more. If Trump caves (I hope he is canny enough not to), might as well skip the wall, and set up some extra machine gun nests at the new Amerimex-Guatamalan border.

    I was drinking at the sports bar at the Mexican restaurant here in town. Was over hearing the Mexican manager talk to this old redneck over beer at the end of the night…..he said it’s his dream the USA and Mexico become one country….

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    • Replies: @Neuday
    Good to know Jeb found a job. How was the guac?
    , @Barnard
    I have heard that before too. They see one of the main benefits as not having to go through customs when they go visit relatives in Mexico.
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  50. @wren
    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!

    Did I hear that "dreamers" were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?

    Is that correct?

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.

    Update:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/

    Did I hear that “dreamers” were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?

    800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that’s the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.

    It should be remembered that DACA is illegal. It is not a law passed by Congress. It was a diktat issued by Obama (who had no legitimate authority to do so) to NOT enforce existing law for a particular class of people. It would be like the local DA and police saying that if someone broke into your house with his kid, then his kid could stay in your house, and the police would make no attempt to remove him.

    In her book Adios America Ann Coulter describes cases where people signed up for a temporary amnesty for agricultural workers who were in America for a fixed, limited period of time, about a year sometime in the 1980s. There were people who singed up for it, even though their immigration papers clearly show they first entered the country long after that window. A couple of the World Trade Center bombers of 1993 got that amnesty too. Even though they were middle-eastern muslims, living and working in New York City and New Jersey, they claimed to have been “agricultural workers”.

    And that particular amnesty was sponsored in the Congress by…………………………..Chuck Schumer.

    And now you know…………………..the rest of the story.

    Between the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the recent vehicle attack on that bike path, just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?

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    • Replies: @Clyde

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/ 800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that’s the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.
     
    You have the correct numbers/ Since only 800,000 dreamers out of 3.6 million dreamers signed up for DACA. What will happen if these 800,000 DACA get an amnesty is Dems will demand a new round of DACA for those Dreamers who did not register for DACA the first time. We will be inundated with sob stories and excuses about why the Dreamers deserve a new round of DACA.
    , @Harry Baldwin
    just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?

    Not enough to endanger his reelection, apparently.
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  51. A truly ridiculous number.

    More than at least 48 of the United States. More than many a good size European, Latin American or Asian nation.
    Surely a big enough number to be economically and fiscally significant – if not eventually politically significant.
    A ‘nation within a nation’.

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  52. @eah
    But shouldn't the government _know_?

    Uhh, how would or could "the government" know? -- do you really want to live in a country with a government that "knows" everything? -- or among people who expect or want that?

    Yeah. Each state can decide how many representitives they want to have, then we don’t need a cencus.

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    • Replies: @eah
    "Yeah" -- there's no difference between a decennial census of citizens to determine representation and "the government" knowing at any particular time how many people are illegally in the country -- none whatsoever -- "yeah".
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  53. Whoever controls the census, controls the country, or something like that.

    Apparently, Obama eliminated questions about citizenship from the 2010 census, so the current numbers include illegals. Trump is putting the questions back in, and only counting citizens for purposes of representation. This may cost California seats in the House.

    http://www.breitbart.com/california/2018/01/17/california-to-lose-congressional-seat-if-census-questions-citizenship/

    Currently, the Census Bureau is working under an acting director, a career staffer named Dr. Ron Jarmin.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/06/29/534927989/new-acting-director-to-oversee-high-risk-2020-census

    It might be important for Sailerites to try to influence Trump’s choice for permanent director. Note that the Census Bureau is a division of the Commerce Department, headed by Wilbur Ross.

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  54. @eD
    Ann Coulter has been saying this.

    Google "population of the United States" and you get a figure of 323 million. My question is whether the 12 million additional illegal immigrants are in addition to the 323 million, or do they just displace some other part of the 323 million that was overestimated?

    My guess is the former, in which case a more accurate total population figure is 335 milllion. And this chimes with my own observation, particularly in cities, that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the "official" figures on population growth.

    that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the “official” figures on population growth.

    I suspect the 12 million additional undocumented is correct as well, but come on, arguments that you could “eyeball” that or “have a sense that places are more crowded than you might expect” are kind of out there. The US is a huge sprawling land mass, and it is simply impossible as an individual to have any real perspective (which of course works in the government’s favor) without spending hours and hours analyzing statistics and data. Many parts of the US are losing population despite tremendous immigrant inflows simply because the trend is towards urbanization and abandoning distant rural communities with poor infrastructure. If you live in a sunbelt state things are going to seem a lot more crowded over the last two decades than if you live in Maine or upstate New York.

    But if I was going to go on “hunches” and “instinct”, I would also guess that a large percentage of these millions of hidden illegals are from Asia, not Latin America. I wonder if the paper addresses that.

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    But if I was going to go on “hunches” and “instinct”, I would also guess that a large percentage of these millions of hidden illegals are from Asia, not Latin America. I wonder if the paper addresses that.
     
    I think that is very likely, Peter. Whatever these guys' "best data available" is, even the best estimates from the Border Patrol will be just that, estimates. That is the case for inflows and outflows. The numbers for those arriving at the customs/immigration halls at airports are going to very accurate, though I'm not sure how the exit data from flights out would be taken (from info. from entry back into to foreign lands?). The lack of exit information is part of the problem, along with refusal to enforce terms on non-immigration visas.

    Therefore, I think quite a decent part of the numbers calculated by these researchers could be illegal Chinese, along with plenty of others, dot-Indians and others. The hispanic numbers have got to be less accurate.
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  55. @Wilkey
    Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

    What our "government of the people" knows and what it's actually willing to tell us are two entirely different matters. I'd wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don't have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens? If they don't know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    It's effing pathetic what the government is unwilling to tell its subje....err, citizens.

    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people

    Who is “they”? The more time you spend with people who actually work in government, the more you realize how lucky we are anything functions at all. Mostly government officials just operate the systems that evolve bureaucratically over time and don’t ask too many questions. Garbage in – garbage out.

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Heh! I agree with you here too ... weird ...

    The organizations mentioned above appear to be full of sharp, diligent people when you go by TV and Bourne ____cy movies ( more here and here). That's definitely not reality though.
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  56. @Mr. Anon

    Did I hear that “dreamers” were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?
     
    800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that's the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.

    It should be remembered that DACA is illegal. It is not a law passed by Congress. It was a diktat issued by Obama (who had no legitimate authority to do so) to NOT enforce existing law for a particular class of people. It would be like the local DA and police saying that if someone broke into your house with his kid, then his kid could stay in your house, and the police would make no attempt to remove him.

    In her book Adios America Ann Coulter describes cases where people signed up for a temporary amnesty for agricultural workers who were in America for a fixed, limited period of time, about a year sometime in the 1980s. There were people who singed up for it, even though their immigration papers clearly show they first entered the country long after that window. A couple of the World Trade Center bombers of 1993 got that amnesty too. Even though they were middle-eastern muslims, living and working in New York City and New Jersey, they claimed to have been "agricultural workers".

    And that particular amnesty was sponsored in the Congress by................................Chuck Schumer.

    And now you know.......................the rest of the story.

    Between the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the recent vehicle attack on that bike path, just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/ 800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that’s the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.

    You have the correct numbers/ Since only 800,000 dreamers out of 3.6 million dreamers signed up for DACA. What will happen if these 800,000 DACA get an amnesty is Dems will demand a new round of DACA for those Dreamers who did not register for DACA the first time. We will be inundated with sob stories and excuses about why the Dreamers deserve a new round of DACA.

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  57. Well, of course it’s higher. I’ve been hearing the number “11 million” since 2004 and it seemed low even then. There is no way the numbers are not much higher now.

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    • Replies: @Mr. Anon

    Well, of course it’s higher. I’ve been hearing the number “11 million” since 2004 and it seemed low even then. There is no way the numbers are not much higher now.
     
    When GW pushed his amnesty in 2005/2006, the numbers I always heard bandied about in the press were 11-20 million. Sometime thereafter, the press settled on the low end of that range and stuck to it. I don't think that had to do with them having seriously investigated the numbers because - hey - these are journalists we're talking about here; they do not bother themselves with facts. I guess they figured that the high end of the range scared people. It wouldn't surprise me if they arbitrarily lowered it again.
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  58. @Peter Akuleyev
    that places just seem to be getting more crowded than you would expect from the “official” figures on population growth.

    I suspect the 12 million additional undocumented is correct as well, but come on, arguments that you could "eyeball" that or "have a sense that places are more crowded than you might expect" are kind of out there. The US is a huge sprawling land mass, and it is simply impossible as an individual to have any real perspective (which of course works in the government's favor) without spending hours and hours analyzing statistics and data. Many parts of the US are losing population despite tremendous immigrant inflows simply because the trend is towards urbanization and abandoning distant rural communities with poor infrastructure. If you live in a sunbelt state things are going to seem a lot more crowded over the last two decades than if you live in Maine or upstate New York.

    But if I was going to go on "hunches" and "instinct", I would also guess that a large percentage of these millions of hidden illegals are from Asia, not Latin America. I wonder if the paper addresses that.

    But if I was going to go on “hunches” and “instinct”, I would also guess that a large percentage of these millions of hidden illegals are from Asia, not Latin America. I wonder if the paper addresses that.

    I think that is very likely, Peter. Whatever these guys’ “best data available” is, even the best estimates from the Border Patrol will be just that, estimates. That is the case for inflows and outflows. The numbers for those arriving at the customs/immigration halls at airports are going to very accurate, though I’m not sure how the exit data from flights out would be taken (from info. from entry back into to foreign lands?). The lack of exit information is part of the problem, along with refusal to enforce terms on non-immigration visas.

    Therefore, I think quite a decent part of the numbers calculated by these researchers could be illegal Chinese, along with plenty of others, dot-Indians and others. The hispanic numbers have got to be less accurate.

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  59. @Peter Akuleyev
    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people

    Who is "they"? The more time you spend with people who actually work in government, the more you realize how lucky we are anything functions at all. Mostly government officials just operate the systems that evolve bureaucratically over time and don't ask too many questions. Garbage in - garbage out.

    Heh! I agree with you here too … weird …

    The organizations mentioned above appear to be full of sharp, diligent people when you go by TV and Bourne ____cy movies ( more here and here). That’s definitely not reality though.

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  60. @Wilkey
    Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

    What our "government of the people" knows and what it's actually willing to tell us are two entirely different matters. I'd wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don't have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens? If they don't know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    It's effing pathetic what the government is unwilling to tell its subje....err, citizens.

    If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens?

    Nothing, just that.

    If they don’t know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    Because Americans won’t take a stand just for silly things like “muh Constitution”.

    Any other questions? I’m all ears.

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  61. @Anonymous
    IKR? But "The co-authors of this unpublished paper are Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein." Jeez, Steve, don't you think a couple of Yale professors could have published this if they'd wanted to?

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi's motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn't?

    Of course, we've seen more than once lately that even tenure is no defense against an assault upon the Zeroth Amendment, that Most Sacred Scripture of Who We Are. Then again, two of these three players have immunity, which is even better than tenure. Now where's my popcorn?

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi’s motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn’t?

    Er, his CV explicitly labels the paper as a “Job Market Paper.” I’m pretty sympathetic to the guy because he’s an operations research guy. That’s what I was when I started my career in industry, albeit one with only modest ability. I’m really curious about the paper and the quantitative methodology. I expect we’ll get to see it in time. Applied OR and management science types tend to be smart, pragmatic and super-creative in sussing out the answers to real world mysteries that happen to have any numerical angle. Like this one.

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    • Replies: @PSR
    That brings to mind that years ago I had a good friend who was in ops research and he told me his motto was 'You tell me what you want to prove and I'll give you the statistics to prove it.'
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  62. @Anonymous
    IKR? But "The co-authors of this unpublished paper are Yale professors Ed Kaplan and Jonathan S. Feinstein." Jeez, Steve, don't you think a couple of Yale professors could have published this if they'd wanted to?

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi's motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn't?

    Of course, we've seen more than once lately that even tenure is no defense against an assault upon the Zeroth Amendment, that Most Sacred Scripture of Who We Are. Then again, two of these three players have immunity, which is even better than tenure. Now where's my popcorn?

    It is a working paper, meaning it is still being worked on prior to submission to an academic journal whereupon it will be reviewed and either accepted for publication following the addressing of review comments or rejected.

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  63. @Hippopotamusdrome
    Yeah. Each state can decide how many representitives they want to have, then we don't need a cencus.

    “Yeah” — there’s no difference between a decennial census of citizens to determine representation and “the government” knowing at any particular time how many people are illegally in the country — none whatsoever — “yeah”.

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  64. @Anonymous
    Even if your traffic anecdote is meaningful, it definitely doesn't apply to other places--around the Nation's Capital, for example. The flood has kept right on coming.

    DC’s housing market didn’t bottom out nearly as hard as LA’s. (Also, way to go government for bailing out banks who were long on mortgages held by people who could just walk out of the country when they went belly-up.)

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  65. Bear-Stearns put out a study in 2006 that estimated 30 million illegals. Its very possible we havery 40- 50 million by now.

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    Maybe, but I don't completely agree with the commenter above that pooh-poohed the studies cited by Ann Coulter some years back. They were a banker thing too, and you'd think those guys would really want to get good numbers. They had and have all that cheapy-obtained FED money to loan at to all those "underserved" borrowers and look forward to interest payments with no risk, as we taxpayers decided via our esteemed senators and reps. that those kinds of banks are TOO BIG TO FAIL.
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  66. @WillBest
    17 million people is the population of Chile. 23 million people is roughly the population of Taiwan. I am just going to guess that 28 million is about where the upper bound is and that would be around Yemen or Nepal.

    Assuming they are proportionally allocated as they are now that would mean over 5 million illegals in California. If they were their own state they would rank 23rd ahead of South Carolina and it would be entitled to 7 representatives in the US House.

    If [illegal immigrants] were their own state they would rank 23rd ahead of South Carolina and it would be entitled to 7 representatives in the US House.

    Getting down to only 7 reps representing illegal immigrants would be a huge improvement. They have at least two hundred reliable votes now.

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    • Agree: Nico
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  67. @J1234
    I guess that the folks in academia think it's time to fess up about the official illegal alien numbers being half of what they should've been. And why would they do this? Because now that deportation is becoming a reality (to one degree or another), they can make the "human tragedy" appear far greater with the larger actual figure.

    They'll call it the "Deport-ocaust."

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”

    I don’t think that’s going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and “breaking up families” and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That’s why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word “immigrant” paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of “poor families” you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly “in the air” and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The “infeasibility”of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed’s bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.

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    • Replies: @The preferred nomenclature is...
    Exactly.

    It was not that many years ago when it was perfectly Ok to firebomb Dresden knowing women and children were going to die. And I think there were a couple of pretty big bombs dropped over Japan that may have hurt a child or two.

    Wasn't it Stalin who said one death was a tragedy but a million was a statistic.
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    I.D., by the time enough people are feeling real pain (financially and culturally, and maybe even physically) from the situation, it'll be way too late. People in this country have a lot of good-will toward others, and it's been getting to the point of stupidity lately. Lots of Americans just see the local small picture, and don't see how the problem is much larger than they think and growing much quicker than they think. Also, many are still too scared, often reasonably so, that they will lose their jobs, have their kids get a hard time in school, etc. for getting involved in a solution.

    So as not to be too much of an eeyore here, I do agree with the earlier portion of your comment. The word, images, tweets, whatever have to be spread to enough people who get to talking about this seriously, like it's a real damn problem, not some wonky policy thing that's not as important as one's $278.35 tax cut this year. Things are turning, I.D., but what it'll take is not just a reliance on that one guy we spent 45 minutes to vote for to take care of all our problems. Additionally, as the basic economy (not the DOW JONES) gets steadily worse, not only will there be more resentment toward this population replacement idea, but equally important people, especially the young men, will have less to lose by raising serious hell.

    I agree also that if the big more accurate number were to gain great acceptance by at least the real media, not the Lyin' Press, more people will start freaking out. For lots, it'll seem like a digital jump, as they haven't really been thinking about it since some LP talking head or politician used the 11 million number just a year back.
    , @guest
    That's not why they ran the little boy image instead of the orc hordes. They were already on the orcs' side and didn't want to hurt their cause.

    Now, showing one blonde girl raped by an African opportunity-seeker may be more effective than showing crowds of orcs. But the MSM doesn't want to show either.
    , @J1234
    Good point about a minority population needing to maintain numbers that are less than critical mass to garner the sympathies of the left leaning public at large. This certainly fits into the moral profile of leftist politics - spouting sermons that they don't have to live with the consequences of on a personal level. When the numbers become so large, the numbers become intimidating, even to those who won't admit it. One of the other things that truly works in our (the right's) favor are the latino activists who brag about becoming dominant in our culture at some point in the future. This takes away the facade of victimhood and humility that many rank and file of the center-left perceive as real. Keep it up, latino activists.

    My point is how the left will likely try to manipulate the statistics to maintain the perceived victimhood of illegal immigrants. Will they be successful? I don't think so, but this may be a moot point, because all the media has to do is suppress this statistic. (This news item is nowhere on google news.) This is where the benefit of alternative online information sources come into play.

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  68. A biometric Social Security card would make it a lot easier to enforce our immigration laws. Has anyone proposed it? Chuck Schumer?

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  69. Our global corporate media support free mobility of labor and capital around the world. Make the world one big country. And you have to admit, it is good for business.

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  70. How many people are here taking advantage of the biggest giveaway in world history? Gee, there can’t be very many.

    I go back and forth, but today I’m going to stand proudly with the people who weren’t born in the USA, but know a good deal when they see one, and managed to get here. Good for you! I’d certainly have done the same thing if I’d been in your shoes.

    My one concern would be that I (or my “dreamers”) would get stuck here when the whole house of cards collapses. That would be the time to tighten the borders! “Oh, no you don’t! You’re an American now, God help you, we owe $20 trillion and that’s $60K apiece. It used to be the world’s largest democracy, but now it’s the world’s largest debtor’s prison! So get to work.”

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  71. The PEW Research Center is a tax-dodge outfit that pushes globalization, plutocracy and open borders mass immigration. Perhaps PEW is good to use as a ruling class approved starting point on opinion surveys and numerical population counts, but the PEW people should not be trusted to be neutral observers of the passing political scene.

    White Core American Patriots will have to financially liquidate certain plutocrat globalizer foundations and so-called “charitable trusts” when the time comes. The PEW Charitable Trusts should be high on the list for plundering to dole out rewards to our people.

    I must admit that I thought 6 foot tall Coulter was telling tall tales about there being thirty(30) million illegal alien invaders in the United States. I guess she was right after all. Ann Coulter was using a banker estimate derived at by looking at transnational remittances and the like.

    2015 Tweet:

    Steve Sailer: Does anybody really know how many illegal aliens there area? Does Pew?

    Ann Coulter Says There Are Upwards of 30 Million Illegal Aliens In The USA

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  72. @wren
    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!

    Did I hear that "dreamers" were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?

    Is that correct?

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.

    Update:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/01/18/there-3-5-m-dreamers-and-most-may-face-nightmare/1042134001/

    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!

    They’re already almost certainly counted for the purposes of Congressional apportionment.

    22.8 Million / 710,000 per District = 32 House Members, which is greater than the margin between the majority and minority parties.

    If you presume that the majority of illegals are in States like California, New Jersey and Illinois, the Democrats already probably have a built-in advantage of a couple dozen seats which are apportioned as a consequence of the presence of illegals. This really brings “Sanctuary Cities” and “Sanctuary States” into focus.

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    • Agree: Charles Pewitt
    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    As posted about here, a commenter at Amren (before Disqus no longer worked for me) clued me in on this fairly obvious point. Yes, the electoral votes apportioned to a state, like, say, California, will be higher due to counting of illegal aliens. H0w many illegal aliens are counted in the census is another story though, Alec (and Mr. Pewitt)

    One thing I can easily give President Trump credit for is, sometimes intentionally and sometimes not, he puts some fear into some of the illegals and they will try to live in the FIGURATIVE shadows as opposed to just the LITERAL shadows from oak trees and power poles at the latest La Raza rally.

    (That is kind of a weird case where FIGURATIVE Trumps LITERAL, isn't it?)
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  73. @Steve Sailer
    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don't know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn't seem as stable as Pew's regular 11 million.

    2015 Tweet from Steve Sailer:

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  74. I have a dream too. Send the shitholers home!

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  75. @Neoconned
    I was drinking at the sports bar at the Mexican restaurant here in town. Was over hearing the Mexican manager talk to this old redneck over beer at the end of the night.....he said it's his dream the USA and Mexico become one country....

    Good to know Jeb found a job. How was the guac?

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    LOL!

    You did mean ¡Jeb! right?
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  76. @Mr. Anon

    Did I hear that “dreamers” were not just 800,000 but actually many millions?
     
    800,000 signed up for DACA. Perhaps has many as 3.6 million total (I think that's the number I read) would be eligible under the existing criteria for DACA.

    It should be remembered that DACA is illegal. It is not a law passed by Congress. It was a diktat issued by Obama (who had no legitimate authority to do so) to NOT enforce existing law for a particular class of people. It would be like the local DA and police saying that if someone broke into your house with his kid, then his kid could stay in your house, and the police would make no attempt to remove him.

    In her book Adios America Ann Coulter describes cases where people signed up for a temporary amnesty for agricultural workers who were in America for a fixed, limited period of time, about a year sometime in the 1980s. There were people who singed up for it, even though their immigration papers clearly show they first entered the country long after that window. A couple of the World Trade Center bombers of 1993 got that amnesty too. Even though they were middle-eastern muslims, living and working in New York City and New Jersey, they claimed to have been "agricultural workers".

    And that particular amnesty was sponsored in the Congress by................................Chuck Schumer.

    And now you know.......................the rest of the story.

    Between the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the recent vehicle attack on that bike path, just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?

    just how many New Yorkers has Chuck Schumer helped to kill anyway?

    Not enough to endanger his reelection, apparently.

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  77. Steve,

    You mention three censuses in the Bible (two Old Testament and one New Testament), but off the top of my head I can think of at least four censuses in the Bible:

    Two taken by Moses while the Hebrews were wandering the the desert, as recounted in the book of Numbers (Chapter 1 and Chapter 26).

    One census of Israel and Judah taken by King David, as recounted in two separate Old Testament passages: II Samuel 24 and I Chronicles 21.

    The census taken around the time Jesus was born (Luke 2).

    A minor quibble. Keep up the good work.

    -BK

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  78. When we finally decide to round them all up and deport them…

    We’re gonna need a bigger train.

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  79. anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    It’s not just the illegals but all the anchor babies they’ve had. They’ve tended to have large families and those children are automatically citizens if born here. One can see how public school demographics have changed with some schools becoming majority Hispanic in just a fairly short while. Also, look at the turnover of neighborhoods that have become Hispanic. One interesting question would be of all the legal citizen Hispanics how many have illegal origins, born here of illegal parents or grandparents?

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  80. @Nico
    Well, of course it’s higher. I’ve been hearing the number “11 million” since 2004 and it seemed low even then. There is no way the numbers are not much higher now.

    Well, of course it’s higher. I’ve been hearing the number “11 million” since 2004 and it seemed low even then. There is no way the numbers are not much higher now.

    When GW pushed his amnesty in 2005/2006, the numbers I always heard bandied about in the press were 11-20 million. Sometime thereafter, the press settled on the low end of that range and stuck to it. I don’t think that had to do with them having seriously investigated the numbers because – hey – these are journalists we’re talking about here; they do not bother themselves with facts. I guess they figured that the high end of the range scared people. It wouldn’t surprise me if they arbitrarily lowered it again.

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    • Replies: @Bernardo Pizzaro Cortez Del Castro
    Agree...the press knows that discussing the actual numbers of illegal aliens and the number of aliens the democrats want legalized would scare most Americans , even the majority of the democrats would not advocate granting citizenship for 12 million illegals.

    The media never discusses the numbers involved, neither do the politicians...the democrats want amnesty for 3.6 million dreamers plus their parents plus the Haitians...and they refuse to fund the wall and refuse to end the diversity lottery...if the press reported these facts it would hurt them politically...thus the numbers are never discussed nor debated, as they report about supposed “racist” language used by the president.
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  81. @Neoconned
    I was drinking at the sports bar at the Mexican restaurant here in town. Was over hearing the Mexican manager talk to this old redneck over beer at the end of the night.....he said it's his dream the USA and Mexico become one country....

    I have heard that before too. They see one of the main benefits as not having to go through customs when they go visit relatives in Mexico.

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    • Replies: @Neoconned
    The other obvious benefit is or will be that the American and perhaps Canadian taxpayers will have to do a semi constant wealth transfer south to keep them afloat that their oligarchy will soak up like a sponge.

    On top of the expenses of the rest of their welfare class who will move north to take the Gibs from the homeys
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  82. Open borders advocates have an interest in exaggerating the size of the illegal population. The more illegals there are, the more costly it is to deport them, and therefore the more the public will support amnesty over deportation.

    But it seems most immigration restrictionists who post on message boards don’t get this. Instead, whenever the usual figure of 11 million is cited, someone will inevitably post about how the government is hiding the truth and the real number is 30 million or 40 million or whatever, not realizing that by doing so they are playing right into the hands of amnesty supporters.

    I doubt the Census is missing 12 million people. And I’m guessing the authors of this paper are not immigration hawks.

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  83. @guest
    "They'll call it the 'Deport-ocaust'"

    Will it be the 11 million (never forget!)? Or shall they revise it upwards, for greater effect?

    I can't deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing. And that's one of the reasons I want it to happen.

    I can’t deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing.

    It won’t be ethnic cleansing, because ethnic cleansing is a deliberate action that changes the demographic character of a country or region. That more accurately describes the intentional violation or non-enforcement of immigration laws by Obama and the left for the purpose of making the US less white. The point of deportation is to uphold the law and stop using illegal immigration (and resulting amnesty) as a means to shift demographics in the left’s political favor.

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    • Replies: @guest
    In the Democrats' case it's not cleansing but ethnic swamping, or whatever term people use that didn't just come off the top of my head.

    Anyway, I would like to stress again that ethnic cleansing actually is what I desire, because I want us to deliberately restrike the ethnic balance we had before the floodgates were open. Because Diversity is our weakness.
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  84. @PiltdownMan

    Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi’s motives are likewise not too hard to suss out. Now, before this kerfuffle turns into the Mother of All Holy Wars, I pose the crucial question: Who has tenure and who hasn’t?
     
    Er, his CV explicitly labels the paper as a "Job Market Paper." I'm pretty sympathetic to the guy because he's an operations research guy. That's what I was when I started my career in industry, albeit one with only modest ability. I'm really curious about the paper and the quantitative methodology. I expect we'll get to see it in time. Applied OR and management science types tend to be smart, pragmatic and super-creative in sussing out the answers to real world mysteries that happen to have any numerical angle. Like this one.

    That brings to mind that years ago I had a good friend who was in ops research and he told me his motto was ‘You tell me what you want to prove and I’ll give you the statistics to prove it.’

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  85. I’m pretty sure that the relevant percentage for the UK is similar if not greater.

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  86. @Achmed E. Newman
    I have been saying 25 to 40 million for a long while, and yes, Ann Coulter has written lots of times in exasperation at people still using a number estimated in 2000 or so, and not particularly accurate even then.

    I'm not too far off from these guys - one man's rectal extraction is another man's raw data .. or something like that ...

    I have been saying 25 to 40 million

    1 in 5 people in the USA speak a a language other than English at home. That is 60 million people. Somehow I doubt they learned that foreign language at the local immersion elementary school.

    No more immigrants period for the next 10 years!

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    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    No more immigrants period for the next 10 years!
     
    Absolutely unacceptable, Mr. Bob.

    Make it 30 years and we've got a deal.
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  87. Read More
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  88. @Anonymous
    Why would Trump want to tweet this info? It does not help Trump because Trump's policy is to let the illegals already here STAY.

    But the argument for Trump's position becomes untenable the higher the number of illegals actually turns out to be.

    This 22 million number puts the LIE to Trump's position. WE CAN'T ALLOW THEM TO STAY.

    This news is bad for Trump and his inner circle of Manhattan liberal advisors. They want this buried deeper than Bannon.

    Lmao dooooooooooooooooom is another form of TDS.

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  89. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    wait a second. if we can’t figure out how many somalis are here….they didnt exactly get here by themselves…

    From a 2015 newspaper article:

    The Census Bureau estimates Minnesota’s Somali population at 23,361. But the Minnesota Department of Education reports there are about 15,000 Somali children in the state’s schools, which calls the census estimate into question. Somalis themselves refer to their numbers being closer to 100,000.

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  90. 10 years ago, Robert X. Crigley, Silicon Valley blogger, was yakking about how the credit bureaus track SS numbers around the country. Back then they estimated 17 million SS numbers were being used by two people; the real owner and an illegal border jumper.

    They did this by noting where the credit data was coming from. Two localities for years, it’s an illegal.

    He mentioned a few weeks later he got a call from the INS and they wanted more information….

    I would guess 2.5 people linked to one SS number, so 42 million; 10 years ago. Probably 50 million today.

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  91. @Wilkey

    Ridiculous this gay chump sits on the throne of St. Peter, preaching the destruction of the West. No one in the Vatican has any contacts with the Bulgarian secret police? The post-commie guys must have inherited some institutional knowledge.

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    • Replies: @J.Ross
    ... Bulgaria's been Orthodox for over a thousand years, but I'm sure there are Croats who feel like we do about this guy.
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  92. @Barnard
    I have heard that before too. They see one of the main benefits as not having to go through customs when they go visit relatives in Mexico.

    The other obvious benefit is or will be that the American and perhaps Canadian taxpayers will have to do a semi constant wealth transfer south to keep them afloat that their oligarchy will soak up like a sponge.

    On top of the expenses of the rest of their welfare class who will move north to take the Gibs from the homeys

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  93. @AnotherDad
    Ridiculous this gay chump sits on the throne of St. Peter, preaching the destruction of the West. No one in the Vatican has any contacts with the Bulgarian secret police? The post-commie guys must have inherited some institutional knowledge.

    … Bulgaria’s been Orthodox for over a thousand years, but I’m sure there are Croats who feel like we do about this guy.

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  94. @Mr. Anon

    Well, of course it’s higher. I’ve been hearing the number “11 million” since 2004 and it seemed low even then. There is no way the numbers are not much higher now.
     
    When GW pushed his amnesty in 2005/2006, the numbers I always heard bandied about in the press were 11-20 million. Sometime thereafter, the press settled on the low end of that range and stuck to it. I don't think that had to do with them having seriously investigated the numbers because - hey - these are journalists we're talking about here; they do not bother themselves with facts. I guess they figured that the high end of the range scared people. It wouldn't surprise me if they arbitrarily lowered it again.

    Agree…the press knows that discussing the actual numbers of illegal aliens and the number of aliens the democrats want legalized would scare most Americans , even the majority of the democrats would not advocate granting citizenship for 12 million illegals.

    The media never discusses the numbers involved, neither do the politicians…the democrats want amnesty for 3.6 million dreamers plus their parents plus the Haitians…and they refuse to fund the wall and refuse to end the diversity lottery…if the press reported these facts it would hurt them politically…thus the numbers are never discussed nor debated, as they report about supposed “racist” language used by the president.

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  95. @Jim Don Bob

    I have been saying 25 to 40 million
     
    1 in 5 people in the USA speak a a language other than English at home. That is 60 million people. Somehow I doubt they learned that foreign language at the local immersion elementary school.

    No more immigrants period for the next 10 years!

    No more immigrants period for the next 10 years!

    Absolutely unacceptable, Mr. Bob.

    Make it 30 years and we’ve got a deal.

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  96. @Intelligent Dasein

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”
     
    I don't think that's going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and "breaking up families" and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That's why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word "immigrant" paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of "poor families" you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly "in the air" and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The "infeasibility"of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed's bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.

    Exactly.

    It was not that many years ago when it was perfectly Ok to firebomb Dresden knowing women and children were going to die. And I think there were a couple of pretty big bombs dropped over Japan that may have hurt a child or two.

    Wasn’t it Stalin who said one death was a tragedy but a million was a statistic.

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  97. @Cool Shoes
    Bear-Stearns put out a study in 2006 that estimated 30 million illegals. Its very possible we havery 40- 50 million by now.

    Maybe, but I don’t completely agree with the commenter above that pooh-poohed the studies cited by Ann Coulter some years back. They were a banker thing too, and you’d think those guys would really want to get good numbers. They had and have all that cheapy-obtained FED money to loan at to all those “underserved” borrowers and look forward to interest payments with no risk, as we taxpayers decided via our esteemed senators and reps. that those kinds of banks are TOO BIG TO FAIL.

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  98. @Anonymous

    Trump needs to mention some numbers, any numbers, to get everyone talking about numbers to prove he is wrong.
     
    Pretty much true, though it would help if he had some basis which even the Establishment had trouble denying. Say if it came from a couple of Jewish Yale Professors.

    Nonetheless your point is valid--if only Trump had someone plugged-in on his staff he could be mopping the floor with his enemies. It would be such good sport. Where's Stephen Miller when we need him? Trying to get someone else fired?

    Pretty much true, though it would help if he had some basis which even the Establishment had trouble denying. Say if it came from a couple of Jewish Yale Professors.

    LOL!!! That was awesome!

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  99. @Intelligent Dasein

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”
     
    I don't think that's going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and "breaking up families" and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That's why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word "immigrant" paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of "poor families" you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly "in the air" and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The "infeasibility"of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed's bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.

    I.D., by the time enough people are feeling real pain (financially and culturally, and maybe even physically) from the situation, it’ll be way too late. People in this country have a lot of good-will toward others, and it’s been getting to the point of stupidity lately. Lots of Americans just see the local small picture, and don’t see how the problem is much larger than they think and growing much quicker than they think. Also, many are still too scared, often reasonably so, that they will lose their jobs, have their kids get a hard time in school, etc. for getting involved in a solution.

    So as not to be too much of an eeyore here, I do agree with the earlier portion of your comment. The word, images, tweets, whatever have to be spread to enough people who get to talking about this seriously, like it’s a real damn problem, not some wonky policy thing that’s not as important as one’s $278.35 tax cut this year. Things are turning, I.D., but what it’ll take is not just a reliance on that one guy we spent 45 minutes to vote for to take care of all our problems. Additionally, as the basic economy (not the DOW JONES) gets steadily worse, not only will there be more resentment toward this population replacement idea, but equally important people, especially the young men, will have less to lose by raising serious hell.

    I agree also that if the big more accurate number were to gain great acceptance by at least the real media, not the Lyin’ Press, more people will start freaking out. For lots, it’ll seem like a digital jump, as they haven’t really been thinking about it since some LP talking head or politician used the 11 million number just a year back.

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  100. @J1234

    I can’t deny, it would look like ethnic cleansing.
     
    It won't be ethnic cleansing, because ethnic cleansing is a deliberate action that changes the demographic character of a country or region. That more accurately describes the intentional violation or non-enforcement of immigration laws by Obama and the left for the purpose of making the US less white. The point of deportation is to uphold the law and stop using illegal immigration (and resulting amnesty) as a means to shift demographics in the left's political favor.

    In the Democrats’ case it’s not cleansing but ethnic swamping, or whatever term people use that didn’t just come off the top of my head.

    Anyway, I would like to stress again that ethnic cleansing actually is what I desire, because I want us to deliberately restrike the ethnic balance we had before the floodgates were open. Because Diversity is our weakness.

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    • Replies: @J1234
    I agree, ethnic swamping is what the leftists are attempting. I also agree with your implied premise that ethnic cleansing, in this context, is completely ethical. Of course, the phrase will be used by the left to portray something far more sinister. But when applied against their perennial foes, the left will think that ethnic cleansing is just fine...though, like you say, they'll come up with a different term.
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  101. @Intelligent Dasein

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”
     
    I don't think that's going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and "breaking up families" and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That's why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word "immigrant" paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of "poor families" you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly "in the air" and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The "infeasibility"of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed's bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.

    That’s not why they ran the little boy image instead of the orc hordes. They were already on the orcs’ side and didn’t want to hurt their cause.

    Now, showing one blonde girl raped by an African opportunity-seeker may be more effective than showing crowds of orcs. But the MSM doesn’t want to show either.

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  102. Read More
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  103. @Alec Leamas

    Well that will throw a lot of elections down the line!
     
    They're already almost certainly counted for the purposes of Congressional apportionment.

    22.8 Million / 710,000 per District = 32 House Members, which is greater than the margin between the majority and minority parties.

    If you presume that the majority of illegals are in States like California, New Jersey and Illinois, the Democrats already probably have a built-in advantage of a couple dozen seats which are apportioned as a consequence of the presence of illegals. This really brings "Sanctuary Cities" and "Sanctuary States" into focus.

    As posted about here, a commenter at Amren (before Disqus no longer worked for me) clued me in on this fairly obvious point. Yes, the electoral votes apportioned to a state, like, say, California, will be higher due to counting of illegal aliens. H0w many illegal aliens are counted in the census is another story though, Alec (and Mr. Pewitt)

    One thing I can easily give President Trump credit for is, sometimes intentionally and sometimes not, he puts some fear into some of the illegals and they will try to live in the FIGURATIVE shadows as opposed to just the LITERAL shadows from oak trees and power poles at the latest La Raza rally.

    (That is kind of a weird case where FIGURATIVE Trumps LITERAL, isn’t it?)

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  104. @Neuday
    Good to know Jeb found a job. How was the guac?

    LOL!

    You did mean ¡Jeb! right?

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  105. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Wilkey
    Shouldn’t the United States government know how many people are living in the United States?

    What our "government of the people" knows and what it's actually willing to tell us are two entirely different matters. I'd wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don't have some realistic estimate of how many people are living here illegally then what the hell are we paying them to do, besides financially rape and spy on law-abiding citizens? If they don't know that number then why the hell are we allowing them to hoover up so much of our private, personal data?

    It's effing pathetic what the government is unwilling to tell its subje....err, citizens.

    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate …

    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.

    Women staff at public agencies in many states fall over themselves to provide “services” (i.e. our money) to illegals. Meanwhile, the government-media complex paints the illegal multitudes as persecuted victims.

    Most insidious to the ideological health of the U.S. is the mental heritage of patrón/serf thinking imported by Central and South American invaders. Remember that the leading newspaper in the U.S., the NYT, is now at the beck and call of newowner Carlos Saleem/Slim who got rich through monopolies that kept other Mexicans poor.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Agree with most of what you say except that Carlos Slim does not control the NYT and he never did. He never owned a majority of Class A shares or anything remotely close, and more importantly never owned one single Class B share--the share class which actually votes on corporate policy. The Sulzberger family owns and controls the New York Times and has for a very, very long time.
    , @Alec Leamas

    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.
     
    This is how they whipsaw you.

    Want illegals to pay taxes? OK, so do I, they say. Let's give them work permits so that we can collect the taxes.

    Want illegals to tell the truth on loan applications? OK, give them permanent resident status with a path to citizenship. After all, what are you going to do? Throw them out of their homes before the end of the Mortgage?

    Want illegals to be more legally responsible and acquire car insurance? Give them drivers licenses and identification cards.

    My God I hate these people.
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  106. @Steve Sailer
    Judging from Los Angeles freeway traffic, the number of illegal aliens went up until about 2007, then fell sharply in 2009. I don't know what happened since then. I imagine it was rising against by 2015.

    But it doesn't seem as stable as Pew's regular 11 million.

    Whenever I’m stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the 405 at 2 pm on a Saturday, I always think, “Who the f*** wants more people in this state?!”

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    • Replies: @ben tillman

    Whenever I’m stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the 405 at 2 pm on a Saturday, I always think, “Who the f*** wants more people in this state?!”
     
    Good point.
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  107. The Yale estimate of 22 million plus an equally rigorous estimate of the anchor babies they produced plus what should be a known figure of illegal aliens that regularized their status by hook or crook plus the number of “legal” from the outset aliens (whether they naturalized or not) plus all their resulting immigrant offspring since 1965 and you pretty much get a figure that equals electing a new population.

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  108. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous

    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate ...
     
    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.

    Women staff at public agencies in many states fall over themselves to provide "services" (i.e. our money) to illegals. Meanwhile, the government-media complex paints the illegal multitudes as persecuted victims.

    Most insidious to the ideological health of the U.S. is the mental heritage of patrón/serf thinking imported by Central and South American invaders. Remember that the leading newspaper in the U.S., the NYT, is now at the beck and call of newowner Carlos Saleem/Slim who got rich through monopolies that kept other Mexicans poor.

    Agree with most of what you say except that Carlos Slim does not control the NYT and he never did. He never owned a majority of Class A shares or anything remotely close, and more importantly never owned one single Class B share–the share class which actually votes on corporate policy. The Sulzberger family owns and controls the New York Times and has for a very, very long time.

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  109. @Anonymous

    I’d wager they know to within about 200,000 people the number of actual illegal immigrants in the country. If the IRS and/or FBI and/or CIA don’t have some realistic estimate ...
     
    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.

    Women staff at public agencies in many states fall over themselves to provide "services" (i.e. our money) to illegals. Meanwhile, the government-media complex paints the illegal multitudes as persecuted victims.

    Most insidious to the ideological health of the U.S. is the mental heritage of patrón/serf thinking imported by Central and South American invaders. Remember that the leading newspaper in the U.S., the NYT, is now at the beck and call of newowner Carlos Saleem/Slim who got rich through monopolies that kept other Mexicans poor.

    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.

    This is how they whipsaw you.

    Want illegals to pay taxes? OK, so do I, they say. Let’s give them work permits so that we can collect the taxes.

    Want illegals to tell the truth on loan applications? OK, give them permanent resident status with a path to citizenship. After all, what are you going to do? Throw them out of their homes before the end of the Mortgage?

    Want illegals to be more legally responsible and acquire car insurance? Give them drivers licenses and identification cards.

    My God I hate these people.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    This is how they whipsaw you.
    ...
    Want illegals to be more legally responsible and acquire car insurance? Give them drivers licenses and identification cards.
     
    California, like other "progressive" states, already hands out drivers' licenses to illegals. Theoretically, this makes it possible to get insurance. In fact, of course, uninsured driving continues much as before.

    In the event of an accident, 30 clan members appear within minutes, mobilized by SMS, to intimidate the other driver. Oh, and the SMS is sent by Obamaphone.

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  110. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Alec Leamas

    Illegal aliens have long become a PRIVILEGED CLASS. They are not required to pay income tax, to have car insurance, they can lie on loan applications with impunity, use fake or generic names (Juan Gonzalez) to avoid the consequences of criminal convictions, etc. etc.
     
    This is how they whipsaw you.

    Want illegals to pay taxes? OK, so do I, they say. Let's give them work permits so that we can collect the taxes.

    Want illegals to tell the truth on loan applications? OK, give them permanent resident status with a path to citizenship. After all, what are you going to do? Throw them out of their homes before the end of the Mortgage?

    Want illegals to be more legally responsible and acquire car insurance? Give them drivers licenses and identification cards.

    My God I hate these people.

    This is how they whipsaw you.

    Want illegals to be more legally responsible and acquire car insurance? Give them drivers licenses and identification cards.

    California, like other “progressive” states, already hands out drivers’ licenses to illegals. Theoretically, this makes it possible to get insurance. In fact, of course, uninsured driving continues much as before.

    In the event of an accident, 30 clan members appear within minutes, mobilized by SMS, to intimidate the other driver. Oh, and the SMS is sent by Obamaphone.

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  111. @Malcolm X-Lax
    Whenever I'm stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the 405 at 2 pm on a Saturday, I always think, "Who the f*** wants more people in this state?!"

    Whenever I’m stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic on the 405 at 2 pm on a Saturday, I always think, “Who the f*** wants more people in this state?!”

    Good point.

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  112. @guest
    In the Democrats' case it's not cleansing but ethnic swamping, or whatever term people use that didn't just come off the top of my head.

    Anyway, I would like to stress again that ethnic cleansing actually is what I desire, because I want us to deliberately restrike the ethnic balance we had before the floodgates were open. Because Diversity is our weakness.

    I agree, ethnic swamping is what the leftists are attempting. I also agree with your implied premise that ethnic cleansing, in this context, is completely ethical. Of course, the phrase will be used by the left to portray something far more sinister. But when applied against their perennial foes, the left will think that ethnic cleansing is just fine…though, like you say, they’ll come up with a different term.

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  113. @Intelligent Dasein

    They’ll call it the “Deport-ocaust.”
     
    I don't think that's going to work this time. The sense of pathos that would cause people to feel all sentimental about deporting illegals and "breaking up families" and whatnot, can only be excited by small numbers, by sob stories about individuals and particular families. That's why, when the full court press was on to ramp up the immivasion of Europe, the media ran the picture of the little drowned Turkish boy and not the tens of thousands of orc-faced rabble marching down streets, trashing train stations, and living in disgusting tent cities.

    The wit and wisdom of Iosef Vissarionovich and the logic of large numbers comes into play here. It is much harder to deport a small group of people than a large one, precisely on account of their harmlessness. Since they do not make the majority feel any pain, the majority cannot muster up the political will to remove them but will rather congratulate itself on its magnanimity and broadmindedness by letting them stay and even pampering them like cherished pets. It is under this emotional regime that the numbers continue to swell and swell; and even as Paris turns into a Third World dump, the political machinery is powerless to act because the magic word "immigrant" paralyzes everyone with mental images of small, huddled, helpless, starving, kindhearted people whom it would be cruel to ignore.

    But when the optics change and instead of "poor families" you have 40 million jerks and freeloaders messing up your nice cities, committing crimes, depressing wages, destroying infrastructure, and showing no gratitude as they hollow out the fat of your culture, then deportation becomes very politically doable. The change is rapid; ideas which were formally unmentionable are suddenly "in the air" and everybody is chattering about them, demanding a leader who will organize them for the desired end.

    Pain is the motivating factor. When the pain of immigration becomes great enough to be noticed it will be stopped, and the intemperate blowhards who were the loudest in crowing about a borderless human fraternity under the old emotional regime, will be the first ones to insist that cattle cars are too good for our invaders under the new one. When we realize that the pain of deportation is much less than we had feared and the result is rather to our liking, all the economic arguments about the necessity of immigrants will evaporate. The "infeasibility"of deporting however many million illegals (Fred Reed's bogeyman) will suddenly appear quite feasible after all.

    In short, recognition of the true number is very motivational and a step in the right direction.

    Good point about a minority population needing to maintain numbers that are less than critical mass to garner the sympathies of the left leaning public at large. This certainly fits into the moral profile of leftist politics – spouting sermons that they don’t have to live with the consequences of on a personal level. When the numbers become so large, the numbers become intimidating, even to those who won’t admit it. One of the other things that truly works in our (the right’s) favor are the latino activists who brag about becoming dominant in our culture at some point in the future. This takes away the facade of victimhood and humility that many rank and file of the center-left perceive as real. Keep it up, latino activists.

    My point is how the left will likely try to manipulate the statistics to maintain the perceived victimhood of illegal immigrants. Will they be successful? I don’t think so, but this may be a moot point, because all the media has to do is suppress this statistic. (This news item is nowhere on google news.) This is where the benefit of alternative online information sources come into play.

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