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Will Climate Change Ever Drive Down the Price of Malibu Beachfront Property?
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From Variety, 2/2/16:

Buckle your property porn safety belts, butter beans, because even though a spokesperson for Mister Geffen says it ain’t so, we’ve heard from two separate sources — high-powered Platinum Triangle real estate insider Rod Iron and inexhaustible real estate yenta Yolanda Yakketyyak — that David Geffen’s ocean front residence along Malibu’s much-coveted Carbon Beach is in escrow with an unidentified buyer for somewhere in the gasp-worthy neighborhood of $85 million. (Rumor and gossip, just rumor and gossip.)

After 50 years in L.A., the billionaire entertainment mogul David Geffen is moving back to his native NYC. Geffen was asking $100 million for what’s not a huge spread, except by Malibu’s constricted standards. But $85 million, if that’s what he got, is still a sizable price for a spot jammed between the busy Pacific Coast Highway and a semi-public beach, with a public walkway on the west where aspiring screenwriters would try to toss their unsold screenplays into Geffen’s yard. (Geffen notoriously promised to open the pathway to the beach in 1983 but didn’t actually do it until after a lawsuit in 2007.)

And nothing says luxury living more than a suicide lane (didn’t Bruce Jenner kill somebody in that lane recently?) for harrowing left turns into your garage, except maybe for backing out of your garage into 45 mph traffic. Of course, six hours per day the the traffic on Pacific Coast Highway is bumper to bumper. And then there’s the magic hour, 3 AM, when maniacs in Lamborghinis race by at 150 mph.

According to the Our Malibu Beaches app (Android and iPhone), in front of Geffen’s ex-house, the public can use all the sand from the water’s edge to 10 feet from the house. So, $85 million gets you 10 feet of beach.

Actually, according to this diagram from New York mag of where you can put down your towel in front of his old house, it’s a little more complicated than that:

Geffen graciously gave a free talk at the UCLA MBA school when I was a student there in 1981. (He does nice things for UCLA, such as give hundreds of millions to the medical school, perhaps because he’d notoriously gotten his start in Hollywood by lying about having a UCLA degree.) I’d saved up a snotty question about his business strategy to discombobulate him, but he backhanded it away imperiously, leaving me looking petty and dim. (Self-made billionaires, in my limited experience, tend to be formidable individuals.)

If the oceans are rising, shouldn’t that eventually drive down Malibu beachfront prices? Is there any evidence for that happening yet to the market?

 
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  1. Hepp says:

    This is the best evidence against global warming, IMO. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then you have to conclude global warming is fake. Climate scientists should put their money where their mouths are, and invest in the beach front property of tomorrow.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AndrewR
    Climate scientists generally aren't known for their vast wealth. Notable exceptions aside, wealthy people seem to be less likely to buy into global warming theory. That doesnt mean they're right.
    , @melendwyr
    You're right: that IS the best evidence against global warming. But with rather a different emphasis.
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  2. I like beachfront as much as the next guy, but that property is tiny and it abuts a major highway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    Having spent some time in Malibu, I don't get it...for all the reasons iSteve mentions, living on the beachfront is somewhere between annoying and dangerous....I would live in the hills....And of course there are severe water restrictions in Malibu, which I found inconvenient.
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  3. Geffen seems to have gotten in and then gotten out of the record (remember them?) business at just the right time.

    He also outlived his heterosexual brother.

    Wouldn’t want to take the other side of his bet.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Geffen is in his 70s and is so wealthy now that he's probably not adjusting his real estate portfolio for the money.
    , @Jim Don Bob
    Shouldn't that be: Wouldn’t want to take the other side of his bed?
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  4. Superman says:

    Why are there a Kentucky Fried Chicken and a McDonalds across the street from these houses?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Clifford Brown
    Geffen's pad is several blocks away from the KFC. All that matters is the ocean view. PCH's tackiness is part of the local charm.

    The KFC and McDonalds are across the street from the Malibu Nobu. So the retail is mixed. High rents mean that national chains and high end retail tends to dominated. The Country Kitchen, a quality ramshackle burger/breakfast burrito joint on PCH, recently has lost its lease and will likely be replaced with a more institutional tenant.
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  5. Romanian says:

    I think the explanation is that the owners of beachfront property in areas where the waters may rise, or where you have regular events like floodings and hurricanes, are indirectly subsidized by the government through insurance so they do not have to bear by themselves the cost of the associated risk. The government also benefits through real estate tax from the supposed high value of such desirable properties, ignoring associated risks.

    This definitely happens with entire cities which are at risk because of the fact that they are sinking in the ground (Houston, or Venice) or because they are the likely victims of a hypothetical rise in global water levels (New Orleans etc). Ideally, the city found to be defective would slowly die out in favor of something nearby (like Galveston). In practice, the government acts to ensure that residents do not bear the costs. Venetians don’t pay out of pocket for the extensive works that regulate water flow in their lagoon. Parisian car owners do not pay more are are refused payout by the insurance companies because they live in a place where carbeques are a regular occurrence etc.

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  6. Boomstick says:

    In other real estate news, BofA is issuing 3% down mortgages with no mortgage insurance. What could go wrong?

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-americas-newest-mortgage-3-down-and-no-fha-1456117203

    The new mortgage program, which the Charlotte, N.C.-based lender plans to unveil on Monday, will let borrowers avoid private mortgage insurance, a product to protect mortgage lenders and investors that is usually required for low-down-payment loans.

    That could make the new loans cheaper than those offered through the Federal Housing Administration, the government agency that has won big settlements from banks in recent years for what the lenders describe as minor errors.

    The FHA doesn’t make loans but insures lenders against default on mortgages that can have down payments of as little as 3.5% and a credit score of as low as 580, on a scale of 300 to 850. When lenders make the loan, they have to certify that everything in a loan file is accurate.

    Bank of America’s new mortgage cuts the FHA out of the process. Instead, the new loans are backed in a partnership with mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac and the Self-Help Ventures Fund, a Durham, N.C.-based nonprofit.

    Bank of America says that for a borrower with a $150,000 mortgage, a credit score of 680 to 719 and a 3% down payment, the monthly cost of the new mortgage would be about $782. A comparable FHA borrower with Bank of America would pay $887 a month, the bank said.

    That’s not quite subprime (< 650) but it's not far from it.

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  7. Others who know more about econ can comment, but I’m sure there’s a lag between the information exposure and market response and different lags in different types of markets. On Wall Street, it’s down to milliseconds with people using automation located in server farms in NJ, but I don’t think every market is like that.

    What do you call a reverse bubble? Maybe everyone is going to try to leave at the same time… you’re judging whether you should get out by looking at whether your neighbor is selling, so as long as he’s staying put, you feel comfortable, but once a few neighbors sell, you start having panic attacks about drowning in your sleep and put that sign out on the front lawn.

    Also, is there something about the law we don’t know… how is beachfront property defined in terms of establishing lot location? Do you own a certain space measured back from averaged tide? That seems crazy, but if so, once on the beachfront, always on the beachfront. Etc.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Malibu homeowners own the beach above the high tide line. The public can use the beach below the high tide line. If the high tide line increases, the width of the private part of the beach only usable by the homeowner narrows.

    Also, eventually the beach washes out to sea and storm waves smash into the property.

    Geffen's inland property line extends to the pavement of Pacific Coast Highway. But motorists can't park on PCH in front of his garages. He is said to have installed several fake garage doors to keep beachgoers from parking there.

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  8. Cracker says:

    Oddly, despite that oncoming global warming/climate change, real estate costs in NYC are higher than ever. Don’t these fools know that the island of Manhattan, as well as much of the boroughs will be drown?! And think of Montauk! Get out while you can!

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Suggoth, So the Indians knew what they were doing when they let Manhattan go for a handful of colored beads and cloth. Wise in the way of the environment.
    , @prosa123
    Montauk itself is on higher ground and would not be inundated in any conceivable storm. It could be left an island, however.

    Peter
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  9. DMW says:

    Moctezuma? As Sagan wrote, they promptly executed the astrologers.

    “We must be the most backwards technical society in the Galaxy.”

    Sea level rise is slowing down according to Tom and Jerry. http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-water-land-gravity-sea-level-20160215-story.html

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  10. @Chrisnonymous
    Others who know more about econ can comment, but I'm sure there's a lag between the information exposure and market response and different lags in different types of markets. On Wall Street, it's down to milliseconds with people using automation located in server farms in NJ, but I don't think every market is like that.

    What do you call a reverse bubble? Maybe everyone is going to try to leave at the same time... you're judging whether you should get out by looking at whether your neighbor is selling, so as long as he's staying put, you feel comfortable, but once a few neighbors sell, you start having panic attacks about drowning in your sleep and put that sign out on the front lawn.

    Also, is there something about the law we don't know... how is beachfront property defined in terms of establishing lot location? Do you own a certain space measured back from averaged tide? That seems crazy, but if so, once on the beachfront, always on the beachfront. Etc.

    Malibu homeowners own the beach above the high tide line. The public can use the beach below the high tide line. If the high tide line increases, the width of the private part of the beach only usable by the homeowner narrows.

    Also, eventually the beach washes out to sea and storm waves smash into the property.

    Geffen’s inland property line extends to the pavement of Pacific Coast Highway. But motorists can’t park on PCH in front of his garages. He is said to have installed several fake garage doors to keep beachgoers from parking there.

    Read More
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  11. DMW says:

    Beach fill projects can be extremely expensive and require continuous maintenance. Research on a comprehensive database of beach fill projects along the East coast, Gulf coast and Great Lakes found that by 1996 the U.S. had spent an estimated $2.4 billion (1996 dollars) on beach fill and that annual expenditures were approximately $100 million (1996 dollars). Most importantly, annual expenditures are increasing rapidly as more communities choose beach fill. These researchers estimated that the future 10-year costs of “renourishment” all the developed shorelines in New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida were $4.4 billion (1996 dollars). This study found that the average cost per mile in these states would be $5.5 million per mile. New Jersey had the highest costs at $17 million per mile and South Carolina had the lowest at $3.3 million per mile[22]. These estimates show that beach fill projects are expensive and will require much larger expenditures in the future. http://www.beachapedia.org/Beach_Fill

    For some reason the NJ costs are more. California is blowing a fortune on beach sand. Expect fresh water shortages

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  12. Ttjy says:

    I wouldn’t want to live right next to that highway for that kind of money.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Especially because it's bumper to bumper about 5 hours per day. And at 3 am when it's almost empty, maniacs in exotic sports cars race by at 150 mph.

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.

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  13. Jonah says:

    My wife’s family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They’ve got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let’s just say that if the sea levels are rising it’s taking a LONG time. At this rate? I’d guess David Geffen’s patio won’t be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn’t great for the environment. But it’s all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn’t like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I’m just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I’m reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: “It’s wind. It blows all over the place.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Harry Baldwin
    My feeling is that the environmentalists erred in lumping all environmental degradation under the title of "global warming." I saw someone give as examples of global warming acid rain and the Pacific trash vortex. Those are two very bad things, but how are they "warming"?

    When the environmentalists constantly talk about global warming, and the evidence of it remains scant and/or unalarming, they undercut the case for environmentalism generally.
    , @Anonymous

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.
     
    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.
     
    , @NickG

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn’t great for the environment.
     
    I beg to differ. There is considerable room for doubt.

    Especially given that CO2 is plant food, that atmospheric levels are currently merely around 0.04%, a rise of 0.02% on recent pre-industrial levels, but by no means unprecedented in the current epoch, whilst still being an order of magnitude lower than in a typical living room, and that globally we are all benefiting from a greening of the planet.

    , @Simon in London
    Spewing massive quantities of carbon would be bad. Luckily, spewing massive quantities of carbon dioxide does no harm at all.
    , @FactsAreImportant

    Let’s just say that if the sea levels are rising it’s taking a LONG time. At this rate? I’d guess David Geffen’s patio won’t be sandy for a couple millenia.
     
    Sea levels are rising about 0.8 inches per decade. Sometimes looking at the actual numbers helps put things in perspective.

    This has been going on for thousands of years. The rate has likely sped up a bit recently.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#/media/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1880-2013.png

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  14. According to the New Yorker the capital of Latin America, Miami’s housing market will soon be underwater, and due to the water table being so high and the rock underneath the city being limeston means it’s unsolvable by traditional methods.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jonah
    I'll take the "Over" on Miami being consumed by the waves. And every other climate doomsday scenario.
    , @Ed
    Miami is an interesting counterargument to the one Steve makes.

    The thing is that Miami is in a really vulnerable position even if you don't believe in climate change or global warming. It wasn't a major settlement until the twentieth century for a reason. It just doesn't take much to make the place uninhabitable for awhile.

    Yet money keeps pouring in to Miami real estate. I think its because its considered to be a good way to launder money, or to keep money that you are stealing from whatever Latin American country you are from safe. I don't think the inherent desirability of the area as a place to live, or the long term demand for real estate, are really important factors here.
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  15. OT, but interesting:
    “The robots are coming for jobs that pay $20 an hour or less, White House finds”

    “There’s an 83% chance that automation will take a job with an hourly wage below $20, a 31% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage between $20 and $40, and just a 4% chance automation will take a job with an hourly wage above $40….

    “One study found that higher levels of robot density within an industry lead to higher wages in that industry, the White House notes. However, that could be because the absence of lower-skills biases wage estimates upwards.

    “The White House says the findings demonstrate the need for training and education to help displaced workers find new jobs.”

    And, of course, more immigrants to compete with those displaced workers!

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-robots-are-coming-for-jobs-that-pay-20-an-hour-or-less-white-house-finds-2016-02-22

    Read More
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  16. @Ttjy
    I wouldn't want to live right next to that highway for that kind of money.

    Especially because it’s bumper to bumper about 5 hours per day. And at 3 am when it’s almost empty, maniacs in exotic sports cars race by at 150 mph.

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.
     
    Is this some kind of early warning for L.A.?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9azjzhoL670
    , @Big Bill
    At Geffen's age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu.
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  17. @Jonah
    My wife's family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They've got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let's just say that if the sea levels are rising it's taking a LONG time. At this rate? I'd guess David Geffen's patio won't be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn't great for the environment. But it's all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn't like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I'm just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I'm reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: "It's wind. It blows all over the place."

    My feeling is that the environmentalists erred in lumping all environmental degradation under the title of “global warming.” I saw someone give as examples of global warming acid rain and the Pacific trash vortex. Those are two very bad things, but how are they “warming”?

    When the environmentalists constantly talk about global warming, and the evidence of it remains scant and/or unalarming, they undercut the case for environmentalism generally.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jonah
    "Global warming" is so 2010. It's all "climate change" now.
    , @Retro Simba
    "... they undercut the case for environmentalism generally."

    Not really. New youngsters come along all the time.
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  18. If climate change has caused the social breakdown, refugee crises and terrorism in eastern Mediterranean countries like Syria, why hasn’t it also produced similar effects in Southern California, which like the Levantine nations has a Mediterranean climate along the coast with deserts and mountains to the east?

    Read More
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  19. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @anony-mouse
    Geffen seems to have gotten in and then gotten out of the record (remember them?) business at just the right time.

    He also outlived his heterosexual brother.

    Wouldn't want to take the other side of his bet.

    Geffen is in his 70s and is so wealthy now that he’s probably not adjusting his real estate portfolio for the money.

    Read More
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  20. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Miami is also projected to be underwater soon according to global warming, but it’s real estate market is very hot:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/guide-to-miami-luxury-real-estate-2016-2

    Although the real estate market does go in cycles with periodic booms and busts, so current prices may just represent the boom phase, rather than the long term assessment.

    Read More
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  21. BenKenobi says:

    “If I could just get off of that LA freeway without being killed or caught…”
    – Jerry Jeff Walker

    Read More
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  22. Jonah says:
    @Harry Baldwin
    My feeling is that the environmentalists erred in lumping all environmental degradation under the title of "global warming." I saw someone give as examples of global warming acid rain and the Pacific trash vortex. Those are two very bad things, but how are they "warming"?

    When the environmentalists constantly talk about global warming, and the evidence of it remains scant and/or unalarming, they undercut the case for environmentalism generally.

    “Global warming” is so 2010. It’s all “climate change” now.

    Read More
    • Replies: @szopen
    there is a Global Warming now, the theory, however, is not of "Global Warming"; it can predict warming (as currently) or cooling (as during ice ages), depeding on the context. There is no theory of global warming. There are theories about greenhouse gasses.
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  23. Jonah says:
    @With the thoughts you'd be thinkin
    According to the New Yorker the capital of Latin America, Miami's housing market will soon be underwater, and due to the water table being so high and the rock underneath the city being limeston means it's unsolvable by traditional methods.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami

    I’ll take the “Over” on Miami being consumed by the waves. And every other climate doomsday scenario.

    Read More
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  24. @Superman
    Why are there a Kentucky Fried Chicken and a McDonalds across the street from these houses?

    Geffen’s pad is several blocks away from the KFC. All that matters is the ocean view. PCH’s tackiness is part of the local charm.

    The KFC and McDonalds are across the street from the Malibu Nobu. So the retail is mixed. High rents mean that national chains and high end retail tends to dominated. The Country Kitchen, a quality ramshackle burger/breakfast burrito joint on PCH, recently has lost its lease and will likely be replaced with a more institutional tenant.

    Read More
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  25. Mr. Anon says:

    “Will Climate Change Ever Drive Down Price of Malibu Beachfront Property?”

    Along the same lines, a number of global-warming proponents are investing in coal (George Soros among them). Obama might be trying to shut down coal-burning plants in America, but the coal can still be sold to China. Of course, in terms of global warming, it doesn’t matter where the coal is burned.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Mr. Anon, I erected a couple of coal fired steam electric plants. They are both shut down now. I foresee the next big money maker to be in the disassembly of these coal fired plants and the sale of the valuable components, steam drum, mud drum, ID fans, coal crushers, and turbines to China and India.
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  26. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Jonah
    My wife's family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They've got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let's just say that if the sea levels are rising it's taking a LONG time. At this rate? I'd guess David Geffen's patio won't be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn't great for the environment. But it's all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn't like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I'm just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I'm reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: "It's wind. It blows all over the place."

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.

    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Simon in London
    If human-induced global warming were really real, then this is the kind of solution that would be used. Since it's just an excuse for de-industrialisation, obviously this kind of thing is not on the table.
    , @Romanian
    The Canadian Haida Corporation already tried it out in an experiment to increase salmon yield, after a volcanic eruption in Alaska led to one of the largest fishing seasons on record because of volcanic ash rich in minerals fertilizing the waters.

    Robert Zubrin, „The Pacific’s Salmon Are Back — Thank Human Ingenuity. Geoengineering could turn our long-barren oceans into a bounty”, National Review, 22 April 2014, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/376258/pacifics-salmon-are-back-thank-human-ingenuity-robert-zubrin

    John Matsen, „Ocean fertilization insights”, 19 December 2013, http://www.lionsbay.net/index.php/ocean-fertilization-insights.html

    “2013 salmon harvest sets new record”, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, October 2013, http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/commercial/ADFG_pr_salmon_harvest_exvessel_10-12-13.pdf

    There are more articles online, including ones detailing Haida's legal troubles after the less than legal geoengineering experiment.

    The interesting thing is that the 120 tons of iron sulfate they used to fertilize 10 thousand square kilometers of water only cost 20 dollars/kg, if I remember correctly. And the results in terms of biomass production were way off the charts. This could be a good solution for the problem of depletion due to overfishing. The article below lists the evolution of percentages of depleted fishing areas around the world.

    “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2010”, Food and Agriculture Organization, http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1820e/i1820e00.htm

    The percentage of moderately exploited or underexploited fishing areas fell from 40% of the total in 1970 to 15% in 2008, of which only 3% are actually underexploited. The overfished areas went from 10% in 1974 to 32% in 2008, with exhausted areas being around 3%. These last ones are especially promising for the geoengineering techniques.
    , @szopen
    That would be really nice, if it would work. I think that since global warming is unstoppable and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have not, will not and indeed cannot work, geoengineering is our only option.
    , @Boomstick
    This sounds like a good plot for the next James Bond movie: super villain with tanker fertilizes the ocean with iron to wipe out the nations of the high latitudes.
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  27. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    You should think of a property price as the present value of the stream of yearly rental rates for a house. Most of the rise will still be in the latter part of the century. At any decent interest rate, say 7%, the present value of something 30 years out is really small-so SLR decreasing value 30-50 years out shouldn’t be capitalized much. Increases in the supply of really rich people paying Malibu prices is a much bigger deal for a while-like those saudi princes you like to point out.

    So I wouldn’t expect to see any real estate consequences until 2040 or so, unless SLR is much faster than expected.

    I think the commenters on the denial train are going to be left behind. The different sets of evidence are getting stronger now that the temperature slowdown post 98 looks to be over. There are plenty of good arguments in favor of adaptation, better to switch now to a defensible position.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Simon in London
    If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn't make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.
    , @David
    I agree with this comment but it's interesting to think of the very low interest rates we have now in the context of discounting. Just for simplicity, assume the real "risk free" return on the 30-year treasury bill is normally 4%, being roughly the nominal return minus inflation. In that case, half the net present value of housing services provided by the real estate is contained in the first 18 years of eternal ownership. But today with the t-bill at 2.77% and CPI at 1.5%, about half the NPV is in the first 51 years. Just interesting.
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  28. jJay says:

    Malibu is so Johnny Carson era real estate. Crass Arabs and 15 minute fame celebrities will pay a fortune to live there for a few years, but this is not where the rich people live. Ventura County is thankfully too crass for rich folk. You need to go north to coastal California in Santa Barbara County to see deep wealth. Montecito is the entry point for those who can’t afford a stake at Hope Ranch.

    Read More
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  29. george says:

    Oh iSteve, climate change only hurts the little people.

    Read More
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  30. $100 million for what’s not a huge spread, except by Malibu’s constricted standards. But $85 million is still a sizable price for a spot jammed between a busy highway and a semi-public beach, with a walkway on the west where aspiring screenwriters would try to toss their screenplays into Geffen’s yard.

    I really don’t get it. Southern California can be nice, but it’s not ALL THAT nice.

    If I had a fraction of that net worth, I’d go someplace MUCH nicer with MUCH nicer people and try to live somewhat anonymously and fly back to LA on my private jet whenever my business required it.

    Do these people in these rarefied circumstances actually LIKE their neighbors so much that they can’t bear to go someplace even nicer?

    Read More
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  31. szopen says:
    @Jonah
    "Global warming" is so 2010. It's all "climate change" now.

    there is a Global Warming now, the theory, however, is not of “Global Warming”; it can predict warming (as currently) or cooling (as during ice ages), depeding on the context. There is no theory of global warming. There are theories about greenhouse gasses.

    Read More
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  32. […] Will Climate Change Ever Drive Down Price of Malibu Beachfront Property? Check out the photo of the house, jammed between a busy highway and a public beach, and guess the […]

    Read More
  33. But wouldn’t the land just behind it become more valuable as it now becomes beachfront property?

    YouTube Superman & Lex Luthor

    Read More
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  34. http://www.city-journal.org/html/10_1_the_trillion_dollar.html

    Seeing as we are talking property here this article sets the blame for the housing bubble right where it belongs back in Clinton’s presidency.

    Read More
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  35. NickG says:
    @Jonah
    My wife's family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They've got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let's just say that if the sea levels are rising it's taking a LONG time. At this rate? I'd guess David Geffen's patio won't be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn't great for the environment. But it's all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn't like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I'm just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I'm reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: "It's wind. It blows all over the place."

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn’t great for the environment.

    I beg to differ. There is considerable room for doubt.

    Especially given that CO2 is plant food, that atmospheric levels are currently merely around 0.04%, a rise of 0.02% on recent pre-industrial levels, but by no means unprecedented in the current epoch, whilst still being an order of magnitude lower than in a typical living room, and that globally we are all benefiting from a greening of the planet.

    Read More
    • Replies: @szopen
    Plant food yes, but also contributes to the changes in acidification of the oceans, and seems to be favourable also to some bugs.
    , @Buffalo Joe
    Nick G, The phrase "pre-industrial levels" brings back memories that the young here don't remember. Miles of steel mills existed along Lake Erie south of Buffalo and in Ohio. There were multiple coal fired steam plants too. Foundries, in the city limits, and most houses and buildings warmed by coal or fuel oil. Public transportation on foul smelling diesel buses and cars burning leaded gas with no emission controls. Ah, the good old days before all of these emissions caused "climate change", but kept tens of thousands employed.
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  36. Cecil the lion story’s epilogue:

    Zimbabwe park warns it may shoot 200 ‘surplus’ lions now that big game hunters are staying home

    It has warned that its lion population has become unsustainable and that it may even have to cull around 200 as a result of what is being called “the Cecil effect.”

    Conservationists estimate about half of Zimbabwe’s wildlife has disappeared since President Robert Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned land began in 2000, but Bubye has held on by attracting wealthy hunters whose fees support its wildlife work.

    Bubye’s lions are decimating populations of antelope, along with other animals such as giraffe, cheetah, leopards and wild dogs, after the driest summer on record kept grasses low and made the small game easy targets.

    Peter Kay, director of Lion Aid, a UK-based charity, said contraception should have been introduced at the conservancy years ago.

    Paul Bartels, a wildlife scientist from South Africa’s Tshwane University of Technology, said female contraceptive implants used in smaller reserves would be impractical for Matilda’s clan.

    “There are a lot of lions on that (Bubye) conservancy. It would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars for contraception to make any real difference,” he said.

    Quote surplus unquote lions, that is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous
    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, "abundant and low value", except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn't. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the "women of both sexes" to no end, but it's Life 101 to anyone with any sense.
    , @anonymous
    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, "abundant and low value", except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn't. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the "women of both sexes" to no end, but it's Life 101 to anyone with any sense.
    , @PV van der Byl
    Great link, Hippo.

    This is a very sad, even if entirely predictable, end to the idiocy over Walter Palmer's hunt.

    Where, now, are Vinegar and other PETA types who bleating about Cecil's "murder" six months ago?
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  37. @Jonah
    My wife's family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They've got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let's just say that if the sea levels are rising it's taking a LONG time. At this rate? I'd guess David Geffen's patio won't be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn't great for the environment. But it's all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn't like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I'm just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I'm reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: "It's wind. It blows all over the place."

    Spewing massive quantities of carbon would be bad. Luckily, spewing massive quantities of carbon dioxide does no harm at all.

    Read More
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  38. @Anonymous

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.
     
    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.
     

    If human-induced global warming were really real, then this is the kind of solution that would be used. Since it’s just an excuse for de-industrialisation, obviously this kind of thing is not on the table.

    Read More
    • Agree: Travis
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  39. @Anon
    You should think of a property price as the present value of the stream of yearly rental rates for a house. Most of the rise will still be in the latter part of the century. At any decent interest rate, say 7%, the present value of something 30 years out is really small-so SLR decreasing value 30-50 years out shouldn't be capitalized much. Increases in the supply of really rich people paying Malibu prices is a much bigger deal for a while-like those saudi princes you like to point out.

    So I wouldn't expect to see any real estate consequences until 2040 or so, unless SLR is much faster than expected.

    I think the commenters on the denial train are going to be left behind. The different sets of evidence are getting stronger now that the temperature slowdown post 98 looks to be over. There are plenty of good arguments in favor of adaptation, better to switch now to a defensible position.

    If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn’t make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @szopen
    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.
    , @Mr. Anon
    "If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn’t make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy."

    It would still however mean that James Hanssen, Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, and a host of others, were wrong in nearly every prediction that they so confidently made.
    , @Mr. Anon
    Please ignore that first reply I made. I misinterpereted what you said, so my post comes off as a non-sequitur.
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  40. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Hippopotamusdrome
    Cecil the lion story's epilogue:


    Zimbabwe park warns it may shoot 200 ‘surplus’ lions now that big game hunters are staying home
    ...
    It has warned that its lion population has become unsustainable and that it may even have to cull around 200 as a result of what is being called “the Cecil effect.”
    ...
    Conservationists estimate about half of Zimbabwe’s wildlife has disappeared since President Robert Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned land began in 2000, but Bubye has held on by attracting wealthy hunters whose fees support its wildlife work.
    ...
    Bubye’s lions are decimating populations of antelope, along with other animals such as giraffe, cheetah, leopards and wild dogs, after the driest summer on record kept grasses low and made the small game easy targets.
    ...
    Peter Kay, director of Lion Aid, a UK-based charity, said contraception should have been introduced at the conservancy years ago.
    ...
    Paul Bartels, a wildlife scientist from South Africa’s Tshwane University of Technology, said female contraceptive implants used in smaller reserves would be impractical for Matilda’s clan.
    ...
    “There are a lot of lions on that (Bubye) conservancy. It would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars for contraception to make any real difference,” he said.

     

    Quote surplus unquote lions, that is.

    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, “abundant and low value”, except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn’t. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the “women of both sexes” to no end, but it’s Life 101 to anyone with any sense.

    Read More
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  41. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Hippopotamusdrome
    Cecil the lion story's epilogue:


    Zimbabwe park warns it may shoot 200 ‘surplus’ lions now that big game hunters are staying home
    ...
    It has warned that its lion population has become unsustainable and that it may even have to cull around 200 as a result of what is being called “the Cecil effect.”
    ...
    Conservationists estimate about half of Zimbabwe’s wildlife has disappeared since President Robert Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned land began in 2000, but Bubye has held on by attracting wealthy hunters whose fees support its wildlife work.
    ...
    Bubye’s lions are decimating populations of antelope, along with other animals such as giraffe, cheetah, leopards and wild dogs, after the driest summer on record kept grasses low and made the small game easy targets.
    ...
    Peter Kay, director of Lion Aid, a UK-based charity, said contraception should have been introduced at the conservancy years ago.
    ...
    Paul Bartels, a wildlife scientist from South Africa’s Tshwane University of Technology, said female contraceptive implants used in smaller reserves would be impractical for Matilda’s clan.
    ...
    “There are a lot of lions on that (Bubye) conservancy. It would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars for contraception to make any real difference,” he said.

     

    Quote surplus unquote lions, that is.

    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, “abundant and low value”, except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn’t. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the “women of both sexes” to no end, but it’s Life 101 to anyone with any sense.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Hippo, When they "cull" herds of any animal that are too populous for its habitat, they usually take the females. Here in NY state we have a huge white tail deer population. Car deer collisions are frequent, so to thin the herd they extend the hunting season, either pre or post and issue Doe only permits. Female lions and white tail deer usually have multiple births, so fewer females, less offspring. They can bring the excess lions here to thin our deer herds, we'll figure out what to do with the lions later, it's a NY thing.
    , @PV van der Byl

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn’t. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.
     
    Precisely.

    What is now the Bubya Conservancy was the Liebig's Ranch for most of the 20th Century. African game animals were shot to make room for domesticated cattle. Once game ranching became legal in Rhodesia, the owners began slaughtering cattle to make room for game including predators like lions.

    The "success" of the anti-hunters will cause the Conservancy to revert to some kind of marginal ranching or, even worse, subsistence agriculture.
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  42. Romanian says:
    @Anonymous

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.
     
    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.
     

    The Canadian Haida Corporation already tried it out in an experiment to increase salmon yield, after a volcanic eruption in Alaska led to one of the largest fishing seasons on record because of volcanic ash rich in minerals fertilizing the waters.

    Robert Zubrin, „The Pacific’s Salmon Are Back — Thank Human Ingenuity. Geoengineering could turn our long-barren oceans into a bounty”, National Review, 22 April 2014, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/376258/pacifics-salmon-are-back-thank-human-ingenuity-robert-zubrin

    John Matsen, „Ocean fertilization insights”, 19 December 2013, http://www.lionsbay.net/index.php/ocean-fertilization-insights.html

    “2013 salmon harvest sets new record”, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, October 2013, http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/commercial/ADFG_pr_salmon_harvest_exvessel_10-12-13.pdf

    There are more articles online, including ones detailing Haida’s legal troubles after the less than legal geoengineering experiment.

    The interesting thing is that the 120 tons of iron sulfate they used to fertilize 10 thousand square kilometers of water only cost 20 dollars/kg, if I remember correctly. And the results in terms of biomass production were way off the charts. This could be a good solution for the problem of depletion due to overfishing. The article below lists the evolution of percentages of depleted fishing areas around the world.

    “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2010”, Food and Agriculture Organization, http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1820e/i1820e00.htm

    The percentage of moderately exploited or underexploited fishing areas fell from 40% of the total in 1970 to 15% in 2008, of which only 3% are actually underexploited. The overfished areas went from 10% in 1974 to 32% in 2008, with exhausted areas being around 3%. These last ones are especially promising for the geoengineering techniques.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Jason Roberts
    What of the iron content in the fish? On Mangan's fitness blog, he recently wrote that elevated iron levels are very bad for you.
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  43. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Steve Sailer
    Especially because it's bumper to bumper about 5 hours per day. And at 3 am when it's almost empty, maniacs in exotic sports cars race by at 150 mph.

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.

    Is this some kind of early warning for L.A.?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Geffen is moving to about 500 to 1000 feet above Central Park, so maybe he knows something? I tried to outsmart him 35 years ago, and that didn't work out as well as I'd expected, so I wouldn't discount his intuitions.
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  44. @Anonymous

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.
     
    Is this some kind of early warning for L.A.?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9azjzhoL670

    Geffen is moving to about 500 to 1000 feet above Central Park, so maybe he knows something? I tried to outsmart him 35 years ago, and that didn’t work out as well as I’d expected, so I wouldn’t discount his intuitions.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Clyde

    Geffen is moving to about 500 to 1000 feet above Central Park, so maybe he knows something?
     
    So with this 84 million he can buy a very nice place in Manhattan/view of Central Park for 10-20-25 million. Also buy a nice Long Island beach house without any trashy California style interlopers in Fire Island (gaysville), or whatever for another 10 million. Meaning lots more money for his children, his heirs! Wait, he has none so he has no family dynasty to seed the way The Donald has. Geffen doesn't even have any crazy capitalism hating children who are getting arts degrees.
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  45. @Romanian
    The Canadian Haida Corporation already tried it out in an experiment to increase salmon yield, after a volcanic eruption in Alaska led to one of the largest fishing seasons on record because of volcanic ash rich in minerals fertilizing the waters.

    Robert Zubrin, „The Pacific’s Salmon Are Back — Thank Human Ingenuity. Geoengineering could turn our long-barren oceans into a bounty”, National Review, 22 April 2014, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/376258/pacifics-salmon-are-back-thank-human-ingenuity-robert-zubrin

    John Matsen, „Ocean fertilization insights”, 19 December 2013, http://www.lionsbay.net/index.php/ocean-fertilization-insights.html

    “2013 salmon harvest sets new record”, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, October 2013, http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fishing/pdfs/commercial/ADFG_pr_salmon_harvest_exvessel_10-12-13.pdf

    There are more articles online, including ones detailing Haida's legal troubles after the less than legal geoengineering experiment.

    The interesting thing is that the 120 tons of iron sulfate they used to fertilize 10 thousand square kilometers of water only cost 20 dollars/kg, if I remember correctly. And the results in terms of biomass production were way off the charts. This could be a good solution for the problem of depletion due to overfishing. The article below lists the evolution of percentages of depleted fishing areas around the world.

    “The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2010”, Food and Agriculture Organization, http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1820e/i1820e00.htm

    The percentage of moderately exploited or underexploited fishing areas fell from 40% of the total in 1970 to 15% in 2008, of which only 3% are actually underexploited. The overfished areas went from 10% in 1974 to 32% in 2008, with exhausted areas being around 3%. These last ones are especially promising for the geoengineering techniques.

    What of the iron content in the fish? On Mangan’s fitness blog, he recently wrote that elevated iron levels are very bad for you.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Romanian
    About that, I have no idea. But I think the point is that there wouldn't be any fish without the iron, and it's meant to feed the plankton that the fish feed on. So maybe there is a sweet spot where they all win? I presume they tested the fish from the resulting booms. Besides, iron always winds up in the water, whether it's sand blowing from the Sahara, ash from volcanic eruption, the effect of wrecks (you know, the ones that grow coral and such).
    , @Gato de la Biblioteca
    At the very least elevated iron levels will cause constipation. I can see the Super Bowl ads now:

    "Having trouble pooping? You may have GWCIC - Global Warming's Cure Induced Constipation. Consult your physician to see if COOL S.H.I.T.* is for you...."

    * Super-Hydrating-Intestinal-Therapy
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  46. szopen says:
    @NickG

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn’t great for the environment.
     
    I beg to differ. There is considerable room for doubt.

    Especially given that CO2 is plant food, that atmospheric levels are currently merely around 0.04%, a rise of 0.02% on recent pre-industrial levels, but by no means unprecedented in the current epoch, whilst still being an order of magnitude lower than in a typical living room, and that globally we are all benefiting from a greening of the planet.

    Plant food yes, but also contributes to the changes in acidification of the oceans, and seems to be favourable also to some bugs.

    Read More
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  47. szopen says:
    @Simon in London
    If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn't make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.

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    • Replies: @International Jew

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.
     
    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.
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  48. Romanian says:
    @Jason Roberts
    What of the iron content in the fish? On Mangan's fitness blog, he recently wrote that elevated iron levels are very bad for you.

    About that, I have no idea. But I think the point is that there wouldn’t be any fish without the iron, and it’s meant to feed the plankton that the fish feed on. So maybe there is a sweet spot where they all win? I presume they tested the fish from the resulting booms. Besides, iron always winds up in the water, whether it’s sand blowing from the Sahara, ash from volcanic eruption, the effect of wrecks (you know, the ones that grow coral and such).

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    • Replies: @OutWest
    The iron is merely replicating the iron in natural upwelling of cold, mineral rich sea water. These cause natural phytoplankton blooms that are the main source of oxygen in the atmosphere. This also increases the PH of seawater which is very useful for coral and such.

    On the other hand it’s an engineering solution rather than a political fix so how do you reward campaign contributors?
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  49. OT

    According to Marketwatch (a WSJ sister company) immigration is no big concern to most Republicans. Pollaganda?

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  50. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Geffen is a small-fry. Seriously rich people buy serious beachfront property.

    Mark Zuckeberg will pay about $200 million to buy 750 acres in Hawaii with an enormous beach, so he can build a single house for his family.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2015/05/18/tech_billionaires_and_privacy_why_facebook_s_mark_zuckerberg_is_spending.html

    I presume he will set aside some of the property to house desperate refugees dreaming of a better life.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Geffen has $6 billion and a 453' yacht which he used to co-own with Larry Ellison, but now has bought out Ellison. He also bought Roman Abramovich's 377' yacht.

    Malibu is expensive.

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  51. Big Bill says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Especially because it's bumper to bumper about 5 hours per day. And at 3 am when it's almost empty, maniacs in exotic sports cars race by at 150 mph.

    Geffen is moving home to New York after 50+ years in L.A.

    At Geffen’s age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu.

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    • Agree: BB753
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right, the UCLA Med Center emergency room in Santa Monica is 12 miles away from Carbon Beach in Malibu, and often blocked by traffic.
    , @Ed
    "At Geffen’s age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu."

    One reason for the enduring popularity of the Upper East Side in Manhattan for wealthy old people is the large number of hospitals there, including what is considered to be one of the country's best for treating cancer.

    This was a minor point in Steve's argument, but Manhattan is built on a bunch of rock pushed into the harbor by ice age glaciers, and most of its neighborhoods are well above sea level. Sea levels would have to rise quite a bit to be a problem. It is an issue for the subway system, which is being waterproofed very slowly and very expensively.
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  52. @Anonymous
    Geffen is a small-fry. Seriously rich people buy serious beachfront property.

    Mark Zuckeberg will pay about $200 million to buy 750 acres in Hawaii with an enormous beach, so he can build a single house for his family.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/business_insider/2015/05/18/tech_billionaires_and_privacy_why_facebook_s_mark_zuckerberg_is_spending.html

    I presume he will set aside some of the property to house desperate refugees dreaming of a better life.

    Geffen has $6 billion and a 453′ yacht which he used to co-own with Larry Ellison, but now has bought out Ellison. He also bought Roman Abramovich’s 377′ yacht.

    Malibu is expensive.

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    • Replies: @pyrrhus
    So now Geffen can have a yacht race with himself....
    , @athEIst
    Yeah, but Larry has his own island. nah nah nah.
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  53. You may recall that a complication of clearing out the World Trade Center debris was that that part of Manhattan was originally in the water and had been created by fill. San Francisco also has dozens of ships from the Gold Rush buried under buildings hundreds of yards from the current waterfront. The waterfront of those cities is where people have chosen it to be, not where it was 150 years ago. Taking the 19th and 20th Centuries as a guide, 21st Century sea level rise will just be one more factor to take into account when it comes to engineering dense waterfront cities. As far as Malibu beach houses go, they seem more like luxury consumption in the here and now than investments for the future, so their price doesn’t say much about belief in sea level rise sixty years hence.

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  54. AndrewR says:
    @Hepp
    This is the best evidence against global warming, IMO. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then you have to conclude global warming is fake. Climate scientists should put their money where their mouths are, and invest in the beach front property of tomorrow.

    Climate scientists generally aren’t known for their vast wealth. Notable exceptions aside, wealthy people seem to be less likely to buy into global warming theory. That doesnt mean they’re right.

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  55. Hubbub says:

    No, thank you. Not for me. Appreciate the offer, but you can keep it. Too close to too close for comfort.

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  56. @Cracker
    Oddly, despite that oncoming global warming/climate change, real estate costs in NYC are higher than ever. Don't these fools know that the island of Manhattan, as well as much of the boroughs will be drown?! And think of Montauk! Get out while you can!

    Suggoth, So the Indians knew what they were doing when they let Manhattan go for a handful of colored beads and cloth. Wise in the way of the environment.

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  57. @Mr. Anon
    "Will Climate Change Ever Drive Down Price of Malibu Beachfront Property?"

    Along the same lines, a number of global-warming proponents are investing in coal (George Soros among them). Obama might be trying to shut down coal-burning plants in America, but the coal can still be sold to China. Of course, in terms of global warming, it doesn't matter where the coal is burned.

    Mr. Anon, I erected a couple of coal fired steam electric plants. They are both shut down now. I foresee the next big money maker to be in the disassembly of these coal fired plants and the sale of the valuable components, steam drum, mud drum, ID fans, coal crushers, and turbines to China and India.

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  58. pyrrhus says:
    @a Newsreader
    I like beachfront as much as the next guy, but that property is tiny and it abuts a major highway.

    Having spent some time in Malibu, I don’t get it…for all the reasons iSteve mentions, living on the beachfront is somewhere between annoying and dangerous….I would live in the hills….And of course there are severe water restrictions in Malibu, which I found inconvenient.

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  59. Venture capitalist billionaire Vinod Khosla is asking $30million to open up access to the beach his property cuts off.

    Readers might recal legal wrangling between him and members of the public who said he shut out access to the public beach.

    Here’s what I don’t get: Khosla is onboard Bill Gates’ pledge of donating half his fortune to charity, so why then does he care about a measely $30 million.

    Mr Sailer should look into what guys like Khosla get in return for his Bill Gates pledge and where the money goes.

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  60. @Big Bill
    At Geffen's age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu.

    Right, the UCLA Med Center emergency room in Santa Monica is 12 miles away from Carbon Beach in Malibu, and often blocked by traffic.

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    • Replies: @whorefinder
    Couldn't the old megawealthy poof just afford to have a helicopter in his yard, ready to take off at a moment's notice and whisk him to the hospital? He doesn't even have to turn it on unless needed, so he won't annoy the neighbors. Just keep it there permanently with a rotation of pilots living in his guest house 24/7.
    , @prosa123
    It's not an uncommon sight in Manhattan for ambulances and other emergency vehicles to get caught in gridlocked traffic, traveling more slowly than walking pace.

    Peter
    , @FactsAreImportant
    Zeppelins!

    The solution to so many of society's most pressing problems.

    Personally, I'm convinced Zeppelins didn't catch on because of their dreary black-and-grey coloring. If they were brightly painted, they would be much more popular.

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  61. Mr. Anon says:
    @Simon in London
    If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn't make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.

    “If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn’t make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.”

    It would still however mean that James Hanssen, Michael Mann, Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, and a host of others, were wrong in nearly every prediction that they so confidently made.

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  62. @NickG

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn’t great for the environment.
     
    I beg to differ. There is considerable room for doubt.

    Especially given that CO2 is plant food, that atmospheric levels are currently merely around 0.04%, a rise of 0.02% on recent pre-industrial levels, but by no means unprecedented in the current epoch, whilst still being an order of magnitude lower than in a typical living room, and that globally we are all benefiting from a greening of the planet.

    Nick G, The phrase “pre-industrial levels” brings back memories that the young here don’t remember. Miles of steel mills existed along Lake Erie south of Buffalo and in Ohio. There were multiple coal fired steam plants too. Foundries, in the city limits, and most houses and buildings warmed by coal or fuel oil. Public transportation on foul smelling diesel buses and cars burning leaded gas with no emission controls. Ah, the good old days before all of these emissions caused “climate change”, but kept tens of thousands employed.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yes, most people today don't realize how industry oriented America's major cities used to be:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html

    Even NYC was a major manufacturing center.

    Now the economic activity in cities largely consists of retail, restaurants and food service, and some professional services like law and finance.
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  63. pyrrhus says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Geffen has $6 billion and a 453' yacht which he used to co-own with Larry Ellison, but now has bought out Ellison. He also bought Roman Abramovich's 377' yacht.

    Malibu is expensive.

    So now Geffen can have a yacht race with himself….

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  64. aspiring screenwriters would try to toss their unsold screenplays into Geffen’s yard

    I wondered why modern movies tend to be so bad – their authors are tossers. Thanks for the explanation!

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  65. szopen says:
    @Anonymous

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.
     
    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.
     

    That would be really nice, if it would work. I think that since global warming is unstoppable and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have not, will not and indeed cannot work, geoengineering is our only option.

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    • Replies: @athEIst
    geoengineering is our only option.
    OK, I'll say it, what could possibly go wrong
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  66. @szopen
    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.

    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

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    • Replies: @szopen
    I have quite similar opinion, though in an opposite direction. In past, I saw an argument against GW, and I spent many hours reading about it, and then it usually was based on lie, twisted interpretation of fact, half-truth and similar. Until now I have seen only one argument which has some scientific merit (the question of saturation; I saw the explanations, but I am not sure whether I understand the explanation for why saturation cannot happen). Countering all other arguments of "sceptics" was just a gigantic waste of time, especially since usually I was ignored, or "sceptic" immedietely jumped to another argument. I admit I am not as familiar with newer "arguments" as with "vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!" "oceans produce more CO2!" "urban heat!" "you cannot compute an average temperature!", but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality.
    , @Former Darfur
    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

    This makes perfect sense, except that one sometimes finds interesting data as a result of investigating what "everyone knows" is bogus. While astrology is bogus in its stated premise, it turns out that there are many patterns associated with traditional astrological beliefs that are more often right than wrong-not because of the stars per se, but for reasons related by coincidence.

    And it's unquestionably true there are PE methods that do work. The problem is that they have some other consequences that defeat the purpose. When men are given female hormones to grow breasts as in the case of transsexuals, they often also get a much larger penis. It often doesn't work, but because they're going to have it surgically sliced and diced to make a phony vadge, they don't care.

    If an effective and nondestructive PE treatment came along, I'm guessing men with members on the smaller side of average or just average would be at a premium, because reducing it is a lot tougher than growing it bigger.
    , @Simon in London
    I was a weak warmist before reading Ian Plimer's Heaven & Earth, which sets out in great detail how the AGW argument fails on multiple levels. I then looked for counter-arguments, but all I found was ad-hominem and 'all the good people believe this'. I think that was what finally convinced me. Real scientists arguing disagreements - even with Flat Earthers - don't talk like AGW advocates. Who does talk like AGW advocates? Social Justice Warriors, Feminists and such.
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  67. @anonymous
    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, "abundant and low value", except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn't. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the "women of both sexes" to no end, but it's Life 101 to anyone with any sense.

    Hippo, When they “cull” herds of any animal that are too populous for its habitat, they usually take the females. Here in NY state we have a huge white tail deer population. Car deer collisions are frequent, so to thin the herd they extend the hunting season, either pre or post and issue Doe only permits. Female lions and white tail deer usually have multiple births, so fewer females, less offspring. They can bring the excess lions here to thin our deer herds, we’ll figure out what to do with the lions later, it’s a NY thing.

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  68. Wally says:

    I previously lived on that stretch along the Pacific Coast Highway (PCH) and hated it.

    On one side you get an admittedly nice beach, on the other side you get 24/7 traffic & noise up the wazoo. Not to mention parking worse than the People’s Republic of Santa Monica.

    Did I mention the swarms of tourists?

    That still does not explain why anyone would relocate to wretched NYC and go from the frying pan into the fire.

    Maybe it’s a Chosen One gay thing.

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  69. Mr. Anon says:
    @Simon in London
    If the temperature starts rising in say 2018, that doesn't make anthropogenic global warming any less of a fantasy.

    Please ignore that first reply I made. I misinterpereted what you said, so my post comes off as a non-sequitur.

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  70. Ed says:
    @With the thoughts you'd be thinkin
    According to the New Yorker the capital of Latin America, Miami's housing market will soon be underwater, and due to the water table being so high and the rock underneath the city being limeston means it's unsolvable by traditional methods.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami

    Miami is an interesting counterargument to the one Steve makes.

    The thing is that Miami is in a really vulnerable position even if you don’t believe in climate change or global warming. It wasn’t a major settlement until the twentieth century for a reason. It just doesn’t take much to make the place uninhabitable for awhile.

    Yet money keeps pouring in to Miami real estate. I think its because its considered to be a good way to launder money, or to keep money that you are stealing from whatever Latin American country you are from safe. I don’t think the inherent desirability of the area as a place to live, or the long term demand for real estate, are really important factors here.

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    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Agree. The huge rise in real estate prices in Toronto and especially Vancouver is partly (mostly?) due to the influx of Chinese money. I guess some of the ChiComs are getting out while the getting is good.
    , @dr kill
    Love South Florida, been here since the 80's. My RE agent says over 50% of the sales are cash to foreigners, mostly South Americans fleeing instability and socialism. . She is quietly rooting for the Muslim invasion of Europe to stampede the wealthy out of the EU and into Palm Beach. Yella Shabob!!!!
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  71. szopen says:
    @International Jew

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.
     
    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

    I have quite similar opinion, though in an opposite direction. In past, I saw an argument against GW, and I spent many hours reading about it, and then it usually was based on lie, twisted interpretation of fact, half-truth and similar. Until now I have seen only one argument which has some scientific merit (the question of saturation; I saw the explanations, but I am not sure whether I understand the explanation for why saturation cannot happen). Countering all other arguments of “sceptics” was just a gigantic waste of time, especially since usually I was ignored, or “sceptic” immedietely jumped to another argument. I admit I am not as familiar with newer “arguments” as with “vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!” “oceans produce more CO2!” “urban heat!” “you cannot compute an average temperature!”, but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality.

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    • Replies: @Gato de la Biblioteca
    Yes, but the burden of proof is on the side of those believing in GW and the need to completely alter the way the rest of us live. (I'm sure the scientists & billionaires have no intention of changing how THEY live.) They're the ones making the case, they're the ones that need to provide proof.
    , @Mr. Anon
    "I admit I am not as familiar with newer “arguments” as with “vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!” “oceans produce more CO2!” “urban heat!” “you cannot compute an average temperature!”, but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality."

    Some of the arguments you mention are bullshit (volcanoes). Some are not.

    Urban heat islands really did add systematic errors to measured temperatures.

    "You Cannont compute an average temperature" - well of course you can, but the quality of the average might be at issue.

    "Oceans produce more CO2"? It depends on what you mean by produce. Have you seen the numbers for the exchange? The CO2 exchange between sea and air and vice-versa IS indeed much larger than the amount of anthropogenic CO2 added to the atmosphere. There is an argument in that concerning uncertainty.

    You are right that many people in the anti-AGW camp will advance any argument, regardless of merit, in the furtherance of their cause. They argue from desire, not science.

    But they are not alone in that.
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  72. I was listening to an audiobook of Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy at 3 o’clock in the morning last night (I know, it’s a wild and crazy life I lead), and there was this passage that stuck out to me:
    “Usury” [to Aristotle] means all lending money at interest, not only, as now, lending at an exorbitant rate. From Greek times to the present day, mankind, or at least the economically more developed portion of them, have been divided into debtors and creditors;debtors have disapproved of interest, and creditors have approved of it. At most times, landowners have been debtors, while men engaged in commerce have been creditors. The views of philosophers, with few exceptions, have coincided with the pecuniary interests of their class. Greek philosophers belonged to, or were employed by, the landowning class; they therefore disapproved of interest. Medieval philosophers were churchmen, and the property of the Church was mainly in land ; they therefore saw no reason to revise Aristotle’s opinion. Their objection to usury was reinforced by anti-Semitism, for most fluid capital was Jewish. Ecclesiastics and barons had their quarrels, sometimes very bitter; but they could combine against the wicked Jew who had tided them over a bad harvest by means of a loan, and considered that he deserved some reward for his thrift.

    With the Reformation, the situation changed. Many of the most earnest Protestants were business men, to whom lending money at interest was essential. Consequently first Calvin, and then other Protestant divines, sanctioned interest. At last the
    Catholic Church was compelled to follow suit, because the old prohibitions did not suit the modern world. Philosophers, whose incomes are derived from the investments of universities, have favoured interest ever since they ceased to be ecclesiastics and therefore connected with landowning. At every stage, there has been a wealth of theoretical argument to support the economically convenient opinion.

    I’m beginning to wonder if the cultural shift against finance and the 1 percent (ala Piketty or Sanders) has less to do with any kind of the upwelling of shared sentiment than that the governing rich themselves (and university endowments and even corporate portfolios) have so much of their wealth tied up in land, and the relationship with credit and finance is like what Russell describes historically for landowners. Certainly, the Davos set isn’t *afraid* of Piketty, and is happy to encourage his views, which suggests that he isn’t actually a danger to their interests.

    https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/aristotle-usury-and-land-in-the-21st-century/

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  73. Ed says:
    @Big Bill
    At Geffen's age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu.

    “At Geffen’s age you worry about how long it takes to get to a well-equipped cardiac care facility.

    Manhattan is a better than Malibu.”

    One reason for the enduring popularity of the Upper East Side in Manhattan for wealthy old people is the large number of hospitals there, including what is considered to be one of the country’s best for treating cancer.

    This was a minor point in Steve’s argument, but Manhattan is built on a bunch of rock pushed into the harbor by ice age glaciers, and most of its neighborhoods are well above sea level. Sea levels would have to rise quite a bit to be a problem. It is an issue for the subway system, which is being waterproofed very slowly and very expensively.

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  74. @anony-mouse
    Geffen seems to have gotten in and then gotten out of the record (remember them?) business at just the right time.

    He also outlived his heterosexual brother.

    Wouldn't want to take the other side of his bet.

    Shouldn’t that be: Wouldn’t want to take the other side of his bed?

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  75. @Ed
    Miami is an interesting counterargument to the one Steve makes.

    The thing is that Miami is in a really vulnerable position even if you don't believe in climate change or global warming. It wasn't a major settlement until the twentieth century for a reason. It just doesn't take much to make the place uninhabitable for awhile.

    Yet money keeps pouring in to Miami real estate. I think its because its considered to be a good way to launder money, or to keep money that you are stealing from whatever Latin American country you are from safe. I don't think the inherent desirability of the area as a place to live, or the long term demand for real estate, are really important factors here.

    Agree. The huge rise in real estate prices in Toronto and especially Vancouver is partly (mostly?) due to the influx of Chinese money. I guess some of the ChiComs are getting out while the getting is good.

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  76. Boomstick says:
    @Anonymous

    Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense.
     
    There already is a ridiculously cheap and easy way to do this. As John Martin remarked, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Martin/

    In July 1988, during at a lecture at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, oceanographer John Martin stood up and said in his best Dr. Strangelove accent, “Give me a half tanker of iron, and I will give you an ice age.”

    These inflammatory words centered around a theory known as the iron hypothesis. Martin professed that by sprinkling a relatively small amount of iron into certain areas of the ocean, known as high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll zones (HNLCs), one could create large blooms of those unicellular aquatic plants commonly known as algae. If enough of these HNLC zones were fertilized with iron, he believed the growth in algae could take in so much carbon from the atmosphere that they could reverse the greenhouse effect and cool the Earth.
     

    This sounds like a good plot for the next James Bond movie: super villain with tanker fertilizes the ocean with iron to wipe out the nations of the high latitudes.

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  77. OutWest says:
    @Romanian
    About that, I have no idea. But I think the point is that there wouldn't be any fish without the iron, and it's meant to feed the plankton that the fish feed on. So maybe there is a sweet spot where they all win? I presume they tested the fish from the resulting booms. Besides, iron always winds up in the water, whether it's sand blowing from the Sahara, ash from volcanic eruption, the effect of wrecks (you know, the ones that grow coral and such).

    The iron is merely replicating the iron in natural upwelling of cold, mineral rich sea water. These cause natural phytoplankton blooms that are the main source of oxygen in the atmosphere. This also increases the PH of seawater which is very useful for coral and such.

    On the other hand it’s an engineering solution rather than a political fix so how do you reward campaign contributors?

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  78. @Harry Baldwin
    My feeling is that the environmentalists erred in lumping all environmental degradation under the title of "global warming." I saw someone give as examples of global warming acid rain and the Pacific trash vortex. Those are two very bad things, but how are they "warming"?

    When the environmentalists constantly talk about global warming, and the evidence of it remains scant and/or unalarming, they undercut the case for environmentalism generally.

    “… they undercut the case for environmentalism generally.”

    Not really. New youngsters come along all the time.

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  79. Clyde says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Geffen is moving to about 500 to 1000 feet above Central Park, so maybe he knows something? I tried to outsmart him 35 years ago, and that didn't work out as well as I'd expected, so I wouldn't discount his intuitions.

    Geffen is moving to about 500 to 1000 feet above Central Park, so maybe he knows something?

    So with this 84 million he can buy a very nice place in Manhattan/view of Central Park for 10-20-25 million. Also buy a nice Long Island beach house without any trashy California style interlopers in Fire Island (gaysville), or whatever for another 10 million. Meaning lots more money for his children, his heirs! Wait, he has none so he has no family dynasty to seed the way The Donald has. Geffen doesn’t even have any crazy capitalism hating children who are getting arts degrees.

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  80. Clyde says:

    David Geffen has an eye for up and coming gay talent:

    David Geffen told Barack Obama to run for president way back in 2004
    NOVEMBER 6, 2008 | 6:59 PM
    Barack Obama supporter David Geffen

    The Times’ Patrick Goldstein reports.

    Geffen tells Goldstein that he knew that Obama was a “remarkable guy” the very first time he laid eyes on him, way back in 2004. After watching Obama deliver the keynote speech at that year’s Democratic National Convention, Geffen says he immediately pressed the Illinois politician to run for the White House.

    “After I heard him give that speech, I called him up and said, ‘You’re going to run for president and I’m going to support you.’” Geffen said.

    When Obama decided to run two years later, he called up Geffen. Geffen says Obama told the media mogul: “‘David, I guess you’re right. I am running for president and I’d like your support.’”

    More here about the famous Feb2007 Obama Hollywood fundraiser David Geffen organized that took in 1.3 million. I remember reading about this at the time (Feb2007) in a dead trees newspaper.

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/2007/02/21/sen-barack-obama-pulls-in-13-million-at-hollywood-fundraiser.html

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    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Clyde, He was "a remarkable guy". Drop the u and insert an a...there much better.
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  81. Lot says:

    Trump’s three strongest states right now:
    Massachusetts +34
    Michigan +24 (avg of 2 polls)
    West Virginia +20

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/

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  82. SF says:

    Southern California doesn’t have regular hurricanes, although once in a blue moon it gets the tail end of a Baja storm. And the spring tides are less extreme there than most places. Beachfront real estate will tank first in places on the east coast where onshore hurricane winds, plus flooding, plus unusual high tides, combine with a very modest sea level rise.

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  83. melendwyr says: • Website
    @Hepp
    This is the best evidence against global warming, IMO. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then you have to conclude global warming is fake. Climate scientists should put their money where their mouths are, and invest in the beach front property of tomorrow.

    You’re right: that IS the best evidence against global warming. But with rather a different emphasis.

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  84. @International Jew

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.
     
    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

    This makes perfect sense, except that one sometimes finds interesting data as a result of investigating what “everyone knows” is bogus. While astrology is bogus in its stated premise, it turns out that there are many patterns associated with traditional astrological beliefs that are more often right than wrong-not because of the stars per se, but for reasons related by coincidence.

    And it’s unquestionably true there are PE methods that do work. The problem is that they have some other consequences that defeat the purpose. When men are given female hormones to grow breasts as in the case of transsexuals, they often also get a much larger penis. It often doesn’t work, but because they’re going to have it surgically sliced and diced to make a phony vadge, they don’t care.

    If an effective and nondestructive PE treatment came along, I’m guessing men with members on the smaller side of average or just average would be at a premium, because reducing it is a lot tougher than growing it bigger.

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  85. @International Jew

    In other words, nothing can change your mind. There is a word for a people like that.
     
    Simon is practicing rational economy of effort. The (hard-core) case for global warming has so many of the classic marks of a scam, that immersing oneself in the literature and engaging advocates in tedious debate is as unproductive as devoting the same effort to astrology or herbal schemes for penile enlargement.

    I was a weak warmist before reading Ian Plimer’s Heaven & Earth, which sets out in great detail how the AGW argument fails on multiple levels. I then looked for counter-arguments, but all I found was ad-hominem and ‘all the good people believe this’. I think that was what finally convinced me. Real scientists arguing disagreements – even with Flat Earthers – don’t talk like AGW advocates. Who does talk like AGW advocates? Social Justice Warriors, Feminists and such.

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    • Replies: @International Jew
    Precisely. The marks of a scam.

    It's unfortunate that "climate science" is so corrupt because I'd actually appreciate being able to turn to specialists when I want to learn what's what; metareasoning about scamology would not be my first choice.

    I'm happy that when it comes to general relativity, home gardening, and translations of Euripides, I can turn confidently to the acknowledged experts. But since the U of East Anglia "emailgate", and of course observing the behavior you describe, my confidence in "climate scientists" is just a bit higher than my confidence in anthropologists' pronouncements on the subject of race.
    , @szopen
    It was exactly opposite with me. I started as a sceptic, then I found a real climatologist blog (in Polish), within week he destroyed my arguments, and I realised the opponents usually used the ad hominem arguments (scientists are paid! this is a scam), while he was calmly explaining the theory. It was few years ago, he is not so patient now, since every month a new bunch of people comes to his blog with exactly the same arguments :D And they don't read, even when pointed "go and read FAQ"
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  86. Clyde says:

    OT
    Mitch McConnell is very emphatic today about not bringing Obama’s SC nominee in front of the US Senate. Call this the Donald Trump effect in action!! In order to slide in Marco Rubio (or whatever) for the nomination McConnell knew he had to butch up his Establishment act! ¡¡¡¡¡_lulz_¡¡

    Plus Charles Grassley who heads Senate Judiciary say he will be going by Joe Biden nomination rules (insider stuff here) These old duffers are moving in stereo!

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  87. whorefinder says: • Website
    @Steve Sailer
    Right, the UCLA Med Center emergency room in Santa Monica is 12 miles away from Carbon Beach in Malibu, and often blocked by traffic.

    Couldn’t the old megawealthy poof just afford to have a helicopter in his yard, ready to take off at a moment’s notice and whisk him to the hospital? He doesn’t even have to turn it on unless needed, so he won’t annoy the neighbors. Just keep it there permanently with a rotation of pilots living in his guest house 24/7.

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  88. Sean says:

    He does nice things for UCLA, such as give hundreds of millions to the medical school, perhaps because he’d notoriously gotten his start in Hollywood by lying about having a UCLA degree.)

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/billionaires-giving-away-their-money-2015-10?r=US&IR=T

    All these high profile billionaires trumpet a claim to be engaged on an urgent mission to give away their entire fortune, meanwhile they find time to adroitly avoid paying taxes on what they have. It is almost like billionaires’ publicised philanthropy is a business expense for the PR part of a massive tax evasion scheme.

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  89. prosa123 says: • Website
    @Cracker
    Oddly, despite that oncoming global warming/climate change, real estate costs in NYC are higher than ever. Don't these fools know that the island of Manhattan, as well as much of the boroughs will be drown?! And think of Montauk! Get out while you can!

    Montauk itself is on higher ground and would not be inundated in any conceivable storm. It could be left an island, however.

    Peter

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  90. prosa123 says: • Website
    @Steve Sailer
    Right, the UCLA Med Center emergency room in Santa Monica is 12 miles away from Carbon Beach in Malibu, and often blocked by traffic.

    It’s not an uncommon sight in Manhattan for ambulances and other emergency vehicles to get caught in gridlocked traffic, traveling more slowly than walking pace.

    Peter

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    • Replies: @Gato de la Biblioteca
    That's why the rich in NYC all travel by pneumatic tube....
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  91. @Jason Roberts
    What of the iron content in the fish? On Mangan's fitness blog, he recently wrote that elevated iron levels are very bad for you.

    At the very least elevated iron levels will cause constipation. I can see the Super Bowl ads now:

    “Having trouble pooping? You may have GWCIC – Global Warming’s Cure Induced Constipation. Consult your physician to see if COOL S.H.I.T.* is for you….”

    * Super-Hydrating-Intestinal-Therapy

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  92. @prosa123
    It's not an uncommon sight in Manhattan for ambulances and other emergency vehicles to get caught in gridlocked traffic, traveling more slowly than walking pace.

    Peter

    That’s why the rich in NYC all travel by pneumatic tube….

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  93. @szopen
    I have quite similar opinion, though in an opposite direction. In past, I saw an argument against GW, and I spent many hours reading about it, and then it usually was based on lie, twisted interpretation of fact, half-truth and similar. Until now I have seen only one argument which has some scientific merit (the question of saturation; I saw the explanations, but I am not sure whether I understand the explanation for why saturation cannot happen). Countering all other arguments of "sceptics" was just a gigantic waste of time, especially since usually I was ignored, or "sceptic" immedietely jumped to another argument. I admit I am not as familiar with newer "arguments" as with "vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!" "oceans produce more CO2!" "urban heat!" "you cannot compute an average temperature!", but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality.

    Yes, but the burden of proof is on the side of those believing in GW and the need to completely alter the way the rest of us live. (I’m sure the scientists & billionaires have no intention of changing how THEY live.) They’re the ones making the case, they’re the ones that need to provide proof.

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    • Replies: @Gato de la Biblioteca
    For the record, I'm agnostic on the topic. The basic theory seems clear enough, but so far the predictions keep failing to pan out. I assume this to mean that the problem of climate modeling is extremely hard.
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  94. @Gato de la Biblioteca
    Yes, but the burden of proof is on the side of those believing in GW and the need to completely alter the way the rest of us live. (I'm sure the scientists & billionaires have no intention of changing how THEY live.) They're the ones making the case, they're the ones that need to provide proof.

    For the record, I’m agnostic on the topic. The basic theory seems clear enough, but so far the predictions keep failing to pan out. I assume this to mean that the problem of climate modeling is extremely hard.

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  95. Thea says:

    So to get to the tiny beach you need to take your life in your hands by crossing PCH? Those houses look really close to the street with no sidewalk. That would be noisy and lousy for small kids.

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  96. @Simon in London
    I was a weak warmist before reading Ian Plimer's Heaven & Earth, which sets out in great detail how the AGW argument fails on multiple levels. I then looked for counter-arguments, but all I found was ad-hominem and 'all the good people believe this'. I think that was what finally convinced me. Real scientists arguing disagreements - even with Flat Earthers - don't talk like AGW advocates. Who does talk like AGW advocates? Social Justice Warriors, Feminists and such.

    Precisely. The marks of a scam.

    It’s unfortunate that “climate science” is so corrupt because I’d actually appreciate being able to turn to specialists when I want to learn what’s what; metareasoning about scamology would not be my first choice.

    I’m happy that when it comes to general relativity, home gardening, and translations of Euripides, I can turn confidently to the acknowledged experts. But since the U of East Anglia “emailgate”, and of course observing the behavior you describe, my confidence in “climate scientists” is just a bit higher than my confidence in anthropologists’ pronouncements on the subject of race.

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    • Replies: @Mr. Anon
    @Simon in London

    I agree with both of you. It would be nice if climatology could go back to being a mostly apolitical scientific undertaking to understand the world's climate. That would require some curiosity, which seems notably lacking among the more prominent AGW proponents in the field.

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  97. @Clyde
    David Geffen has an eye for up and coming gay talent:

    David Geffen told Barack Obama to run for president way back in 2004
    NOVEMBER 6, 2008 | 6:59 PM
    Barack Obama supporter David Geffen

    The Times' Patrick Goldstein reports.

    Geffen tells Goldstein that he knew that Obama was a "remarkable guy" the very first time he laid eyes on him, way back in 2004. After watching Obama deliver the keynote speech at that year's Democratic National Convention, Geffen says he immediately pressed the Illinois politician to run for the White House.

    “After I heard him give that speech, I called him up and said, ‘You’re going to run for president and I’m going to support you.’” Geffen said.

    When Obama decided to run two years later, he called up Geffen. Geffen says Obama told the media mogul: "‘David, I guess you’re right. I am running for president and I’d like your support.’"
     
    More here about the famous Feb2007 Obama Hollywood fundraiser David Geffen organized that took in 1.3 million. I remember reading about this at the time (Feb2007) in a dead trees newspaper.
    http://www.foxnews.com/story/2007/02/21/sen-barack-obama-pulls-in-13-million-at-hollywood-fundraiser.html

    Clyde, He was “a remarkable guy”. Drop the u and insert an a…there much better.

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  98. melendwyr says: • Website

    Why in the world do you consider the authority of “acknowledged experts” compelling? This is a HBD blog, among its other concerns, and the one thing that unifies HBDers of any value is that they realized the consensus was counterfactual.

    If you couldn’t find intelligent pro-warming sources, I’d say you weren’t looking very hard.

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  99. Mr. Blank says:

    This essentially sums up why I don’t lose too much sleep over climate change.

    Since I lack the technical chops to follow the actual scientific arguments, and I’m inherently skeptical of those cut-and-pasted lists of supposed FACTS (always in all caps, just like that) that partisans of all stripes like to throw around, I’m forced to rely on proxy indicators. One proxy indicator is to observe the behavior of people who are much, much smarter than I am.

    And what stands out is that, regardless of whatever’s coming out of their mouths, the bulk of those very smart people don’t seem to be terribly worried about climate change. They seem very concerned about sounding like they’re worried about it, but their actions never reflect their words.

    Not that I think they’re lying, exactly. I don’t doubt many of them sincerely believe there’s a climate crisis. But they are also remarkably consistent in finding convenient rationalizations for why they don’t actually have to do anything, even though everybody else does. One wouldn’t expect such a pattern of responses if the predicted catastrophe was really as awful and inevitable as the activists make it sound. If NASA announced a giant asteroid was going to slam into the Bay Area next week, I’m sure there would be a few oddball tech oligarchs who’d stay in their mansions until the last possible moment, but most would be helicoptering away as soon as the news hit CNN.

    As Glenn Reynolds always puts it, I’ll believe there’s a crisis when the people telling me there’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis.

    (Then again … the mortgage crisis showed that even the smartest people can be remarkably adept at fooling themselves.)

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  100. OT: crusading SJW seeks to deploy weaponized diversity to destroy white neighborhoods, provides useful rule of thumb for real estate investment in the process.

    [blockquote]Our research finds that neighborhoods that are more than about 30 percent nonwhite, within a couple of decades, two-thirds of them will become predominantly nonwhite. Neighborhoods that are less than one-third nonwhite in more than a decade will remain integrated.

    The 30 percent is when you’re thinking about trying to place housing, when you look at court decisions or school decisions—if anybody is interested in creating a long-term integration plan, they try to locate as much affordable housing in areas that are 70-percent white or more that aren’t in the pattern of transition.[/blockquote]

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/suburban-resegregation-myron-orfield/470154/

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  101. George says:

    I wonder if Geffen is using the temporary reprieve from the drought to bail on California? He might also be wondering about who is going to pay for those lush underfunded pensions.

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  102. Jezz-yu! Americans!
    Look at my face. Look into the eyes, don’t look around the eyes ..
    It’s a shed. Made of wood. Granted, a very large shed, with a fine pitched roof, could hold a hundred ton of silage.
    That .. thing .. is not a house. My actual 12′x8′ shed is more robust, defensible and insulated. It even has masonry and lime components. Geffen’s shed has more in common with the palm-leaf bower of a South Seas cannibal chief, or an igloo, than a proper building.

    It’s a bloody shed, on a tiny patch of ludicrously overpriced machair. “Oi seen yow comin’!”. Eh?
    Get a grip. What’s the fishing like, for instance? Is there a non-brackish well? Ship-haul for the winter?

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  103. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Buffalo Joe
    Nick G, The phrase "pre-industrial levels" brings back memories that the young here don't remember. Miles of steel mills existed along Lake Erie south of Buffalo and in Ohio. There were multiple coal fired steam plants too. Foundries, in the city limits, and most houses and buildings warmed by coal or fuel oil. Public transportation on foul smelling diesel buses and cars burning leaded gas with no emission controls. Ah, the good old days before all of these emissions caused "climate change", but kept tens of thousands employed.

    Yes, most people today don’t realize how industry oriented America’s major cities used to be:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html

    Even NYC was a major manufacturing center.

    Now the economic activity in cities largely consists of retail, restaurants and food service, and some professional services like law and finance.

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    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo's city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios) and a walk of about three miles took you to Republic Steels plant with two blast furnace and Donner Hanna's coke ovens. Cleveland's steel mills are also in view of downtown . That's the way it was. Thanks for the link.
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  104. DCBillS says:

    This isn’t hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don’t get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated. The scientists producing the data are people of integrity, an alien concept in this kleptocracy. The rub is the effect on sea level has to date been tiny. You have to really look for it over a long time. Ten years is not long enough to see anything noticeable. The great majority of our brilliant population cannot read a scale and thus are baffled by predictions of disaster. Over the next fifty years this will change. The very slow rise will increase faster, exponentially. The cake is baked. This is locked in and cannot be prevented. The game is lost. What does this mean for California? Not much. Seaside slopes tend to be steep. A five foot rise in sea level will only bring the beach five feet inland in many places. In coastal Carolina the beach could move inland on a scale of miles. In South Florida it will, by dozens of miles. Montauk should be mostly OK. NYC, not so much. Maybe submarines can be run in the tubes.

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    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    How was the Kool-Aid?
    , @dr kill
    Back where I come from, scientists collect data instead of producing it, but in the matter of AGW I believe you are indeed correct.
    , @TWS
    Admit it, when you typed that you were on your back with your little birdy feet in the air.
    , @Mr. Anon
    "This isn’t hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don’t get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated."

    The measurements are manipulated. NOAA even admits they are manipulated; they call it a correction. However their corrections increase as one gets closer to the present day. Which indicates one of two things: 1.) We were better at measuring temperature 70 years ago than we were 20 years ago, or 2.) they are purposefully manipulating the data so as to produce warming.
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  105. @Jonah
    My wife's family has had a beach house in Newport Beach for over 60 years. They've got family photos of that beach for every year since Eisenhower was president.

    Let's just say that if the sea levels are rising it's taking a LONG time. At this rate? I'd guess David Geffen's patio won't be sandy for a couple millenia.

    I have little doubt that spewing massive quantities of carbon into the air isn't great for the environment. But it's all going much slower than the Climate Research Industrial Complex would like us to believe. Frankly, I bet humans figure out a way to bio-engineer a system for pulling carbon out of the sky before it really becomes a horrible existential threat in any immediate sense. Not that I wouldn't like to see Miami lost like Atlantis.

    Maybe the pace will accelerate. Who knows? Not me. I'm just skeptical that ANYONE knows. I'm reminded of an underrated movie Gore Verbinski movie, The Weather Man. Summing up the complete farce of weather prediction, Nicholas Cage finally sputters: "It's wind. It blows all over the place."

    Let’s just say that if the sea levels are rising it’s taking a LONG time. At this rate? I’d guess David Geffen’s patio won’t be sandy for a couple millenia.

    Sea levels are rising about 0.8 inches per decade. Sometimes looking at the actual numbers helps put things in perspective.

    This has been going on for thousands of years. The rate has likely sped up a bit recently.

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  106. @Steve Sailer
    Right, the UCLA Med Center emergency room in Santa Monica is 12 miles away from Carbon Beach in Malibu, and often blocked by traffic.

    Zeppelins!

    The solution to so many of society’s most pressing problems.

    Personally, I’m convinced Zeppelins didn’t catch on because of their dreary black-and-grey coloring. If they were brightly painted, they would be much more popular.

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    • Agree: International Jew
    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    Smoking was actually permitted on the German Zeppelins on their trans-Atlantic flights, but only in a special room where the attendant controlled the matches. I wish I had a time machine so I could go.
    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Even better, they could be brightly lit with lights. Incandescent bulbs are an ignition hazard, so only LEDs should be used.
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  107. @DCBillS
    This isn't hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don't get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated. The scientists producing the data are people of integrity, an alien concept in this kleptocracy. The rub is the effect on sea level has to date been tiny. You have to really look for it over a long time. Ten years is not long enough to see anything noticeable. The great majority of our brilliant population cannot read a scale and thus are baffled by predictions of disaster. Over the next fifty years this will change. The very slow rise will increase faster, exponentially. The cake is baked. This is locked in and cannot be prevented. The game is lost. What does this mean for California? Not much. Seaside slopes tend to be steep. A five foot rise in sea level will only bring the beach five feet inland in many places. In coastal Carolina the beach could move inland on a scale of miles. In South Florida it will, by dozens of miles. Montauk should be mostly OK. NYC, not so much. Maybe submarines can be run in the tubes.

    How was the Kool-Aid?

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  108. asdf says:

    Jeez. Malibu is psychotically over-priced. Oh well. Not like I was gonna buy a pad there anyway.

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  109. @FactsAreImportant
    Zeppelins!

    The solution to so many of society's most pressing problems.

    Personally, I'm convinced Zeppelins didn't catch on because of their dreary black-and-grey coloring. If they were brightly painted, they would be much more popular.

    Smoking was actually permitted on the German Zeppelins on their trans-Atlantic flights, but only in a special room where the attendant controlled the matches. I wish I had a time machine so I could go.

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  110. Dee says:

    10 or 15 years ago, I would see that 97% of the CO2 was from natural sources and 3% humans produced. I figured all they did was calculate how much coal, oil, and natural gas we used, and how much of the CO2 out there it represented. Basic really.

    I did a search recently, and that information has been scrubbed. Even the Wikipedia page (yeah, I know) on CO2 in the atmosphere it was gone. Kind of hard to get everybody to go into starvation mode, and stop burning fuel if there’s nothing we can do about it, and wouldn’t make any difference with our 3% input. Like the sun coming up in the morning.

    Other thing I found out about was based on ice core data from Antarctica. Last 450,000 years we’ve had 4 ice ages. They can cut air bubbles out of the ice that contain the atmosphere from way back then. That gives a direct read on the CO2. Temp they used a proxy of O18 isotope. The temp goes up and then 600+ years later, the CO2 starts increasing and chasing the temp up. Then at the temperature peak, with the CO2 about as high as it’s going to get in that cycle; the temp starts dropping with the CO2 chasing it down. Nobody burning coal or oil, so that was 100% natural. And it’s done this same cycle 4 times in a row, so it’s probably the default setting for the climate. The CO2 is a RESULT of warming, not the cause. Seems like only climate models have CO2 as causing warming.

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  111. @Anonymous
    Yes, most people today don't realize how industry oriented America's major cities used to be:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html

    Even NYC was a major manufacturing center.

    Now the economic activity in cities largely consists of retail, restaurants and food service, and some professional services like law and finance.

    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo’s city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios) and a walk of about three miles took you to Republic Steels plant with two blast furnace and Donner Hanna’s coke ovens. Cleveland’s steel mills are also in view of downtown . That’s the way it was. Thanks for the link.

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo’s city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios)
     
    Even more so in Minneapolis, where the baseball team was called the Millers. They still stand, in various parts of the city, and some are still in use.

    There is a moribund train spur behind the silos lining Hiawatha Ave along the LRT line (which I thought should have used the old tracks). Today I saw a school bus (without passengers, I hope) about to make a left turn onto 35th St. by those silos.

    But a very short train had stopped while crossing and was blocking that street. So the driver decides to try his luck at 36th instead-- by swerving out of the turn lane in front of a Jeep which had the right to his own lane. Damn you, Otto!

    One more reason we homeschool. But it's nice to know at least one silo won't be a condo conversion.
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  112. dr kill says:
    @Ed
    Miami is an interesting counterargument to the one Steve makes.

    The thing is that Miami is in a really vulnerable position even if you don't believe in climate change or global warming. It wasn't a major settlement until the twentieth century for a reason. It just doesn't take much to make the place uninhabitable for awhile.

    Yet money keeps pouring in to Miami real estate. I think its because its considered to be a good way to launder money, or to keep money that you are stealing from whatever Latin American country you are from safe. I don't think the inherent desirability of the area as a place to live, or the long term demand for real estate, are really important factors here.

    Love South Florida, been here since the 80′s. My RE agent says over 50% of the sales are cash to foreigners, mostly South Americans fleeing instability and socialism. . She is quietly rooting for the Muslim invasion of Europe to stampede the wealthy out of the EU and into Palm Beach. Yella Shabob!!!!

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  113. dr kill says:
    @DCBillS
    This isn't hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don't get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated. The scientists producing the data are people of integrity, an alien concept in this kleptocracy. The rub is the effect on sea level has to date been tiny. You have to really look for it over a long time. Ten years is not long enough to see anything noticeable. The great majority of our brilliant population cannot read a scale and thus are baffled by predictions of disaster. Over the next fifty years this will change. The very slow rise will increase faster, exponentially. The cake is baked. This is locked in and cannot be prevented. The game is lost. What does this mean for California? Not much. Seaside slopes tend to be steep. A five foot rise in sea level will only bring the beach five feet inland in many places. In coastal Carolina the beach could move inland on a scale of miles. In South Florida it will, by dozens of miles. Montauk should be mostly OK. NYC, not so much. Maybe submarines can be run in the tubes.

    Back where I come from, scientists collect data instead of producing it, but in the matter of AGW I believe you are indeed correct.

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  114. TWS says:

    Do unicorns cause more car accidents than deer? Are leprechauns hardest hit by depression? When the tooth fairy comes to Christopher Walkens’ house does he have to speak in Spanish?

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  115. TWS says:
    @DCBillS
    This isn't hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don't get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated. The scientists producing the data are people of integrity, an alien concept in this kleptocracy. The rub is the effect on sea level has to date been tiny. You have to really look for it over a long time. Ten years is not long enough to see anything noticeable. The great majority of our brilliant population cannot read a scale and thus are baffled by predictions of disaster. Over the next fifty years this will change. The very slow rise will increase faster, exponentially. The cake is baked. This is locked in and cannot be prevented. The game is lost. What does this mean for California? Not much. Seaside slopes tend to be steep. A five foot rise in sea level will only bring the beach five feet inland in many places. In coastal Carolina the beach could move inland on a scale of miles. In South Florida it will, by dozens of miles. Montauk should be mostly OK. NYC, not so much. Maybe submarines can be run in the tubes.

    Admit it, when you typed that you were on your back with your little birdy feet in the air.

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  116. @Buffalo Joe
    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo's city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios) and a walk of about three miles took you to Republic Steels plant with two blast furnace and Donner Hanna's coke ovens. Cleveland's steel mills are also in view of downtown . That's the way it was. Thanks for the link.

    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo’s city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios)

    Even more so in Minneapolis, where the baseball team was called the Millers. They still stand, in various parts of the city, and some are still in use.

    There is a moribund train spur behind the silos lining Hiawatha Ave along the LRT line (which I thought should have used the old tracks). Today I saw a school bus (without passengers, I hope) about to make a left turn onto 35th St. by those silos.

    But a very short train had stopped while crossing and was blocking that street. So the driver decides to try his luck at 36th instead– by swerving out of the turn lane in front of a Jeep which had the right to his own lane. Damn you, Otto!

    One more reason we homeschool. But it’s nice to know at least one silo won’t be a condo conversion.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    Reg, We have "Silo City" and a collection of six connected silos painted to look like a six pack of Labatt's Blue, their HQ is in Buffalo. So many empty silos still standing but some still in use. Cheerios are made in Buffalo, hence the tee shirt....." My City Smells Like Cheerios."
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  117. Mr. Anon says:
    @DCBillS
    This isn't hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don't get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated. The scientists producing the data are people of integrity, an alien concept in this kleptocracy. The rub is the effect on sea level has to date been tiny. You have to really look for it over a long time. Ten years is not long enough to see anything noticeable. The great majority of our brilliant population cannot read a scale and thus are baffled by predictions of disaster. Over the next fifty years this will change. The very slow rise will increase faster, exponentially. The cake is baked. This is locked in and cannot be prevented. The game is lost. What does this mean for California? Not much. Seaside slopes tend to be steep. A five foot rise in sea level will only bring the beach five feet inland in many places. In coastal Carolina the beach could move inland on a scale of miles. In South Florida it will, by dozens of miles. Montauk should be mostly OK. NYC, not so much. Maybe submarines can be run in the tubes.

    “This isn’t hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don’t get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated.”

    The measurements are manipulated. NOAA even admits they are manipulated; they call it a correction. However their corrections increase as one gets closer to the present day. Which indicates one of two things: 1.) We were better at measuring temperature 70 years ago than we were 20 years ago, or 2.) they are purposefully manipulating the data so as to produce warming.

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    • Replies: @szopen
    Here, in Poznań, we had two weeks of real winter (and even then temperatures were not that high) . Every effing winter since IIRC four years is shorter and warmer. In mid-February we had temperatures going up to 12 or even 14C!!! In February!!! So it does not seem like "manipulating the data" for me. I do not remember a warmer winter in my life (I'm 39).
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  118. Mr. Anon says:
    @International Jew
    Precisely. The marks of a scam.

    It's unfortunate that "climate science" is so corrupt because I'd actually appreciate being able to turn to specialists when I want to learn what's what; metareasoning about scamology would not be my first choice.

    I'm happy that when it comes to general relativity, home gardening, and translations of Euripides, I can turn confidently to the acknowledged experts. But since the U of East Anglia "emailgate", and of course observing the behavior you describe, my confidence in "climate scientists" is just a bit higher than my confidence in anthropologists' pronouncements on the subject of race.

    I agree with both of you. It would be nice if climatology could go back to being a mostly apolitical scientific undertaking to understand the world’s climate. That would require some curiosity, which seems notably lacking among the more prominent AGW proponents in the field.

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  119. Mr. Anon says:
    @szopen
    I have quite similar opinion, though in an opposite direction. In past, I saw an argument against GW, and I spent many hours reading about it, and then it usually was based on lie, twisted interpretation of fact, half-truth and similar. Until now I have seen only one argument which has some scientific merit (the question of saturation; I saw the explanations, but I am not sure whether I understand the explanation for why saturation cannot happen). Countering all other arguments of "sceptics" was just a gigantic waste of time, especially since usually I was ignored, or "sceptic" immedietely jumped to another argument. I admit I am not as familiar with newer "arguments" as with "vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!" "oceans produce more CO2!" "urban heat!" "you cannot compute an average temperature!", but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality.

    “I admit I am not as familiar with newer “arguments” as with “vulcanoes produce more CO2 than whole human race!” “oceans produce more CO2!” “urban heat!” “you cannot compute an average temperature!”, but since all the previous ones were pure bullshit, I doubt newer are of better quality.”

    Some of the arguments you mention are bullshit (volcanoes). Some are not.

    Urban heat islands really did add systematic errors to measured temperatures.

    “You Cannont compute an average temperature” – well of course you can, but the quality of the average might be at issue.

    “Oceans produce more CO2″? It depends on what you mean by produce. Have you seen the numbers for the exchange? The CO2 exchange between sea and air and vice-versa IS indeed much larger than the amount of anthropogenic CO2 added to the atmosphere. There is an argument in that concerning uncertainty.

    You are right that many people in the anti-AGW camp will advance any argument, regardless of merit, in the furtherance of their cause. They argue from desire, not science.

    But they are not alone in that.

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  120. szopen says:
    @Simon in London
    I was a weak warmist before reading Ian Plimer's Heaven & Earth, which sets out in great detail how the AGW argument fails on multiple levels. I then looked for counter-arguments, but all I found was ad-hominem and 'all the good people believe this'. I think that was what finally convinced me. Real scientists arguing disagreements - even with Flat Earthers - don't talk like AGW advocates. Who does talk like AGW advocates? Social Justice Warriors, Feminists and such.

    It was exactly opposite with me. I started as a sceptic, then I found a real climatologist blog (in Polish), within week he destroyed my arguments, and I realised the opponents usually used the ad hominem arguments (scientists are paid! this is a scam), while he was calmly explaining the theory. It was few years ago, he is not so patient now, since every month a new bunch of people comes to his blog with exactly the same arguments :D And they don’t read, even when pointed “go and read FAQ”

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    I think tangible signs of warming are clearer in Europe -- e.g., hikers notice that the glacier peters out 300 meters higher up the mountain than when they were kids.
    , @Simon in London
    The simplest starting point: What is the proof that human C02 output, a few % of all C02 output, leads to the large measured increased in atmospheric C02? The only evidence I could find was isotope measurement which indicated that around 3% of atmospheric C02 was human-produced, in line with human C02 output at the time. On the charts going back to 1800 the increase in atmospheric C02 was greater than all human C02 output - more C02 was (supposedly) appearing in the atmosphere than was being produced by humans. And the rate of atmospheric C02 increase seemed remarkably linear - a straight line going up left to right - whereas the rate of C02 production has increased rapidly, a curved line going up.

    While it is not sufficient for AGW theory that humans cause the recent increase in C02, it is certainly a necessary starting point.
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  121. szopen says:
    @Mr. Anon
    "This isn’t hard although as with most slightly complex matters most don’t get it or give a hoot. AGW is real. The measurements are accurate and are not manipulated."

    The measurements are manipulated. NOAA even admits they are manipulated; they call it a correction. However their corrections increase as one gets closer to the present day. Which indicates one of two things: 1.) We were better at measuring temperature 70 years ago than we were 20 years ago, or 2.) they are purposefully manipulating the data so as to produce warming.

    Here, in Poznań, we had two weeks of real winter (and even then temperatures were not that high) . Every effing winter since IIRC four years is shorter and warmer. In mid-February we had temperatures going up to 12 or even 14C!!! In February!!! So it does not seem like “manipulating the data” for me. I do not remember a warmer winter in my life (I’m 39).

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  122. @szopen
    It was exactly opposite with me. I started as a sceptic, then I found a real climatologist blog (in Polish), within week he destroyed my arguments, and I realised the opponents usually used the ad hominem arguments (scientists are paid! this is a scam), while he was calmly explaining the theory. It was few years ago, he is not so patient now, since every month a new bunch of people comes to his blog with exactly the same arguments :D And they don't read, even when pointed "go and read FAQ"

    I think tangible signs of warming are clearer in Europe — e.g., hikers notice that the glacier peters out 300 meters higher up the mountain than when they were kids.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Simon in London
    Still recovering from the end of the Little Ice Age (ended ca 1800-1850), though, when the glaciers advanced farther than they had done since the end of the last Ice Age ca 8000 BC.
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  123. @Steve Sailer
    I think tangible signs of warming are clearer in Europe -- e.g., hikers notice that the glacier peters out 300 meters higher up the mountain than when they were kids.

    Still recovering from the end of the Little Ice Age (ended ca 1800-1850), though, when the glaciers advanced farther than they had done since the end of the last Ice Age ca 8000 BC.

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  124. @szopen
    It was exactly opposite with me. I started as a sceptic, then I found a real climatologist blog (in Polish), within week he destroyed my arguments, and I realised the opponents usually used the ad hominem arguments (scientists are paid! this is a scam), while he was calmly explaining the theory. It was few years ago, he is not so patient now, since every month a new bunch of people comes to his blog with exactly the same arguments :D And they don't read, even when pointed "go and read FAQ"

    The simplest starting point: What is the proof that human C02 output, a few % of all C02 output, leads to the large measured increased in atmospheric C02? The only evidence I could find was isotope measurement which indicated that around 3% of atmospheric C02 was human-produced, in line with human C02 output at the time. On the charts going back to 1800 the increase in atmospheric C02 was greater than all human C02 output – more C02 was (supposedly) appearing in the atmosphere than was being produced by humans. And the rate of atmospheric C02 increase seemed remarkably linear – a straight line going up left to right – whereas the rate of C02 production has increased rapidly, a curved line going up.

    While it is not sufficient for AGW theory that humans cause the recent increase in C02, it is certainly a necessary starting point.

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  125. @FactsAreImportant
    Zeppelins!

    The solution to so many of society's most pressing problems.

    Personally, I'm convinced Zeppelins didn't catch on because of their dreary black-and-grey coloring. If they were brightly painted, they would be much more popular.

    Even better, they could be brightly lit with lights. Incandescent bulbs are an ignition hazard, so only LEDs should be used.

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    • Replies: @FactsAreImportant
    Modern airships use helium, not hydrogen, so there isn't an ignition hazard any more. (Fool me once ...)

    So, it is feasible to have flames shooting out like the guitar guy in Mad Max Fury Road.

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  126. Mr. Anon says:

    “Here, in Poznań, we had two weeks of real winter (and even then temperatures were not that high) . Every effing winter since IIRC four years is shorter and warmer. In mid-February we had temperatures going up to 12 or even 14C!!! In February!!! So it does not seem like “manipulating the data” for me. I do not remember a warmer winter in my life (I’m 39).”

    Perception of temperature changes with age (and body-mass). I remember mornings in my childhood as being bitterly, bone-chilling cold. Except I grew up in California, near the coast. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t really that cold. Where I live now (southeast America) I have not noticed any significant changes in climate for the last 15 years.

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  127. David says:
    @Anon
    You should think of a property price as the present value of the stream of yearly rental rates for a house. Most of the rise will still be in the latter part of the century. At any decent interest rate, say 7%, the present value of something 30 years out is really small-so SLR decreasing value 30-50 years out shouldn't be capitalized much. Increases in the supply of really rich people paying Malibu prices is a much bigger deal for a while-like those saudi princes you like to point out.

    So I wouldn't expect to see any real estate consequences until 2040 or so, unless SLR is much faster than expected.

    I think the commenters on the denial train are going to be left behind. The different sets of evidence are getting stronger now that the temperature slowdown post 98 looks to be over. There are plenty of good arguments in favor of adaptation, better to switch now to a defensible position.

    I agree with this comment but it’s interesting to think of the very low interest rates we have now in the context of discounting. Just for simplicity, assume the real “risk free” return on the 30-year treasury bill is normally 4%, being roughly the nominal return minus inflation. In that case, half the net present value of housing services provided by the real estate is contained in the first 18 years of eternal ownership. But today with the t-bill at 2.77% and CPI at 1.5%, about half the NPV is in the first 51 years. Just interesting.

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    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Yes, so second-half-of-the-century effects should be showing up in prices for seaside trophy properties -- e.g., one that has 30 feet of elevation above sea-level should enjoy a modest but detectable price premium over one that is only 3 feet up.

    For example, my house is on a slight rise maybe 6 feet above surrounding streets, which means it ought to do well if the L.A. River ever overflows. If I ever went to list my home for sale, I'd probably put that somewhere in the ad. Do seaside properties with elevation advantages from higher seas list that in ads these days more than in the past?

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  128. @Hippopotamusdrome
    Even better, they could be brightly lit with lights. Incandescent bulbs are an ignition hazard, so only LEDs should be used.

    Modern airships use helium, not hydrogen, so there isn’t an ignition hazard any more. (Fool me once …)

    So, it is feasible to have flames shooting out like the guitar guy in Mad Max Fury Road.

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  129. @Reg Cæsar

    Anonymous, A short walk from Buffalo’s city hall took you to the massive grain silos and grain mills (smells like Cheerios)
     
    Even more so in Minneapolis, where the baseball team was called the Millers. They still stand, in various parts of the city, and some are still in use.

    There is a moribund train spur behind the silos lining Hiawatha Ave along the LRT line (which I thought should have used the old tracks). Today I saw a school bus (without passengers, I hope) about to make a left turn onto 35th St. by those silos.

    But a very short train had stopped while crossing and was blocking that street. So the driver decides to try his luck at 36th instead-- by swerving out of the turn lane in front of a Jeep which had the right to his own lane. Damn you, Otto!

    One more reason we homeschool. But it's nice to know at least one silo won't be a condo conversion.

    Reg, We have “Silo City” and a collection of six connected silos painted to look like a six pack of Labatt’s Blue, their HQ is in Buffalo. So many empty silos still standing but some still in use. Cheerios are made in Buffalo, hence the tee shirt…..” My City Smells Like Cheerios.”

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  130. @Hippopotamusdrome
    Cecil the lion story's epilogue:


    Zimbabwe park warns it may shoot 200 ‘surplus’ lions now that big game hunters are staying home
    ...
    It has warned that its lion population has become unsustainable and that it may even have to cull around 200 as a result of what is being called “the Cecil effect.”
    ...
    Conservationists estimate about half of Zimbabwe’s wildlife has disappeared since President Robert Mugabe’s seizure of white-owned land began in 2000, but Bubye has held on by attracting wealthy hunters whose fees support its wildlife work.
    ...
    Bubye’s lions are decimating populations of antelope, along with other animals such as giraffe, cheetah, leopards and wild dogs, after the driest summer on record kept grasses low and made the small game easy targets.
    ...
    Peter Kay, director of Lion Aid, a UK-based charity, said contraception should have been introduced at the conservancy years ago.
    ...
    Paul Bartels, a wildlife scientist from South Africa’s Tshwane University of Technology, said female contraceptive implants used in smaller reserves would be impractical for Matilda’s clan.
    ...
    “There are a lot of lions on that (Bubye) conservancy. It would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars for contraception to make any real difference,” he said.

     

    Quote surplus unquote lions, that is.

    Great link, Hippo.

    This is a very sad, even if entirely predictable, end to the idiocy over Walter Palmer’s hunt.

    Where, now, are Vinegar and other PETA types who bleating about Cecil’s “murder” six months ago?

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  131. @David
    I agree with this comment but it's interesting to think of the very low interest rates we have now in the context of discounting. Just for simplicity, assume the real "risk free" return on the 30-year treasury bill is normally 4%, being roughly the nominal return minus inflation. In that case, half the net present value of housing services provided by the real estate is contained in the first 18 years of eternal ownership. But today with the t-bill at 2.77% and CPI at 1.5%, about half the NPV is in the first 51 years. Just interesting.

    Yes, so second-half-of-the-century effects should be showing up in prices for seaside trophy properties — e.g., one that has 30 feet of elevation above sea-level should enjoy a modest but detectable price premium over one that is only 3 feet up.

    For example, my house is on a slight rise maybe 6 feet above surrounding streets, which means it ought to do well if the L.A. River ever overflows. If I ever went to list my home for sale, I’d probably put that somewhere in the ad. Do seaside properties with elevation advantages from higher seas list that in ads these days more than in the past?

    Read More
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  132. @anonymous
    That was exactly what all the professionals in the African big game business predicted would happen.

    Lions are, as they say, "abundant and low value", except to the extent one values subspecies like the Barbary lion. They rapidly breed to carrying capacity. They are adaptable to many varying conditions. They are easy to breed in captivity, which is why you could find lion cubs in pet stores for so many years. Of course, buying one was almost invariably a disaster, but the sellers had their money by then.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn't. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    This upsets the PETA people and the "women of both sexes" to no end, but it's Life 101 to anyone with any sense.

    Safari hunters are the only reason that these species have lasted as long as they have. They pay ridiculous sums to hunt these animals, most of which would have to be culled at cost to the government if they didn’t. All professional hunting organizations pay huge bribes to the government functionaries as well, who otherwise would as soon exterminate the megafauna.

    Precisely.

    What is now the Bubya Conservancy was the Liebig’s Ranch for most of the 20th Century. African game animals were shot to make room for domesticated cattle. Once game ranching became legal in Rhodesia, the owners began slaughtering cattle to make room for game including predators like lions.

    The “success” of the anti-hunters will cause the Conservancy to revert to some kind of marginal ranching or, even worse, subsistence agriculture.

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  133. athEIst says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Geffen has $6 billion and a 453' yacht which he used to co-own with Larry Ellison, but now has bought out Ellison. He also bought Roman Abramovich's 377' yacht.

    Malibu is expensive.

    Yeah, but Larry has his own island. nah nah nah.

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  134. athEIst says:
    @szopen
    That would be really nice, if it would work. I think that since global warming is unstoppable and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions have not, will not and indeed cannot work, geoengineering is our only option.

    geoengineering is our only option.
    OK, I’ll say it, what could possibly go wrong

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The unspoken statistical reality of urban crime over the last quarter century.
The “war hero” candidate buried information about POWs left behind in Vietnam.
The major media overlooked Communist spies and Madoff’s fraud. What are they missing today?
What Was John McCain's True Wartime Record in Vietnam?