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Why Was McCain's Share of Immigrant Vote Worse Than Trump's?
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The graph above is from Audacious Epigone:

The interesting question is the gap between Bush’s 2004 performance and McCain’s in 2008 (which was worse than Trump’s in 2016).

The usual explanation is that it has to do with how legal immigrants are desperately devoted to amnesty for illegal immigrants. Of course, McCain and Bush were too, so that doesn’t make all that much sense.

More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

A third explanation is that the Bush-Rove plan to convert immigrants to GOP supporters by boosting their homeownership through more credulous down payment and income documentation standards was working well in booming late 2004, but had exploded by late 2008. For some reason, however, the economic events of 2008 are not supposed to be related to the political outcome of 2008.

 
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  1. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Why? Because shut up, that’s why.

    –Love, the Establishment.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Neoconned
    Carville said it best....its the economy stupid.

    And yet politicans even today like trump refuse to focus on the economy....instead worrying about wedge issues or foreign policy
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  2. OT–A detailed report on Angela Merkel’s career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    Read More
    • Replies: @theo the kraut
    Great report, some errors:

    - "Japan ... tsunami that claimed 25,000 lives"
    ->
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami
    15,894 deaths
    6,152 injured
    2,562 people missing

    - "Germany has so far received 1.5 million migrants over 2015–16, with at least 100,000 arriving with no papers or dubious ones"
    ->
    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article165288255/Bosbach-will-Migranten-ohne-Pass-an-der-Grenze-abweisen.html
    "Zwei Drittel der Ausländer, die nach Deutschland kommen, haben keinen Pass"
    (Two thirds of the foreigners that come to Germany don't have a passport)

    Scheüble -> Schäuble
    , @eah
    https://twitter.com/JackO_May/status/910816652379467776
    , @AnotherDad
    In other words, yet another red diaper baby working to destroy their nation. What else is new?
    , @Bill Jones
    A a GDR politician Merkel was dedicated to the destruction of the West.

    She still is.
    , @Nico
    The good news is the most recent polls show the CDU/CSU and SPD on a downswing and the AfD on an upswing. Based on the trends seen in quite a few recent Western elections this should land us results in a couple of days that the talking heads in the press will no doubt deem "catastrophic."

    The dislodging of the evil cow aka Merkel is probably still some time off. But the bolts appear to be coming loose.

    Let us pray...
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  3. Entirely anecdotal, but during the campaign I was pretty explicitly pro-Trump on social media sites on my “in real life” persona, and I had four friend requests from sub-Saharan Africans–currently living there, three in Nigeria, one in Benin–who paired the requests with messages about how much they admired Trump. None of the four were connected through one another. It was bizarre. Definitely made an impression, especially after the first one.

    Maybe Melania was a factor.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Altai
    Trump is insanely rich and is highly entertaining/extremely combative in relating to opposition. Even if he stopped all immigration from Nigeria he'd likely still have fans of his persona over there if nothing else.

    He's basically the Mohammed Ali of American politics, it speaks to a West African mentality.
    , @AndrewR
    Not bizarre. Trump embodies the strongman archetype that is arguably the only viable one in Africa.
    , @snorlax
    I keep my politics under wraps on social media attached to my real name, and I also periodically get friend requests from Nigerians, sometimes with notes attached. I think they're just looking for marks for the Nigerian prince scam.
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  4. McCain is an extremely unlikeable weasel and Trump is a winner strongman alpha type.

    And Hillary was the least likeable candidate of all time, and Obama was Obama.

    Not that hard to figure out

    Read More
    • Agree: NickG, Clyde, Desiderius, Travis
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  5. Barnard says:

    Obama was a fairly empty vessel for people, particularly low information voters, to project onto whatever they wanted him to represent. McCain was also not well liked by much of anyone outside a certain subset of the neocons. The celebrity factor also would have made a difference for both Obama and Trump, immigrant voters are more likely than the average voter to be influenced by celebrity.

    Read More
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  6. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    How about KISS: immigrants like everyone else are fatigued to some extent by the two term incumbent party… not in the mood for more of the same in 2008 and then a bit of the same feelings in 2016.

    In all three two term presidencies shown on the graph the incumbent party is unable to sustain their momentum with immigrants.

    Read More
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  7. Busby says:

    Does it really need to be restated…

    When given a choice between Republicans who act like Democrats and actual Democrats, the average voter almost always accepts no imitation.

    Read More
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  8. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    If illegals are ‘wetbacks’, doesn’t it follow that their kids are ‘wet-dreamers’?

    Read More
    • LOL: Harry Baldwin
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  9. I knew a Dominican women who was newly arrived in the US at the time of Obama’s election. She was not eligible to vote but she said she was for Obama “because he is like me” i.e. brown-skinned. (She did not identify as “black” because the Spanish word for “black” (negro) does not have the same connotation as the English word signifying anyone of African or mixed African descent. It just indicates a color, and other words in Spanish such as moreno (brown) are used in the same way as whites might use blonde or brunette to give a hint of what someone looks like, but don’t classify a person by race. Someone who is negro and someone who is moreno might well be brothers with the same parents. They just have different color skin.)

    As a legal immigrant myself, I think I can say that we legal immigrants have no particular sympathy for those who wish to immigrate without paying the fees, but the truth is that most of the people who immigrate illegally are not qualified professionals trying to sneak in on the cheap, but just people trying to make a living and get by any way they can, and maybe send some money home to the family, or maybe even save up to buy a plot of land and build a home back home. If you grew up in a hut on a plantation or farm in rural Central America or one of the islands, then legal paperwork is probably not your real forte and you may not be all that concerned about getting qualified for social security or Medicare, though if you stay for a long time, those things may come into play.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Glaivester

    but the truth is that most of the people who immigrate illegally are not qualified professionals trying to sneak in on the cheap, but just people trying to make a living and get by any way they can, and maybe send some money home to the family, or maybe even save up to buy a plot of land and build a home back home. If you grew up in a hut on a plantation or farm in rural Central America or one of the islands, then legal paperwork is probably not your real forte
     
    The problem is not that illegal aliens came in the wrong way, although often people phrase it that way so as to skirt the idea that they are bigots. The problem is that illegal aliens are people who probably have no legal way to get here - and the reason is that the American people want to keep them out. Put another way, they are the riff-raff that our immigration laws were designed to keep out, so when they come anyway, that is a problem.
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  10. eah says:

    Left unsaid is how the “immigrant vote” is large enough to merit discussion — sad — here’s what they’ll be voting for next year:

    Read More
    • Replies: @David
    From that indictment of immigrants' typical view of the first amendment, to thinking to add a comment on their views on the meaninglessness of the second, it occurred to me that demanding public figures recognize the zeroth amendment might convince them to renounce it. "Don't you think..?"

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, "Don't they have a right to come?" I suppose Hillary might have said yes, but it seems more likely she would say no before finding herself at a loss for the reasons why.

    , @Hippopotamusdrome
    Its also the Republican's 2018 Platform.
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  11. Ah, more than once since the election I wish I had made screen caps of all the people on Facebook who, on election day, were smugly talking about the “big beautiful ‘wall’ of Latino voters” who were going to keep Trump out of the White House. “They don’t like being called ‘rapists’” was another line I saw many times. Fortunately most Latinos seem to be politically apathetic. Or enough of them are at any rate.

    Read More
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  12. Tmanz says:

    What explains 1992 -> 1996? That’s where this divide first seems to have shown up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @bomag

    1992 -> 1996?
     
    Interesting gap; a highest to lowest swing. Not sure, but HW had some draft off the 1986 amnesty; HW negotiated the NAFTA deal. Clinton pushed hard for NAFTA, getting it implemented in 1994. NAFTA was probably seen as code for "free trade in people".
    , @Ron Mexico
    "What explains 1992 -> 1996?" David Schippers, House investigator in Clinton impeachment addressed this in his book Sell Out. Al Gore and Citizenship USA. From National Review, "Sell Out also includes an appendix of documents which demonstrate Al Gore’s direct involvement in turning Citizenship USA into “a pro-Democrat voter mill” in which English tests were waived and criminal records of prospective citizens swept under the rug in places such as New York City, Chicago, Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston, and Newark. (Each of these cities was located in a key battleground state during the 1996 presidential election.) Ultimately, over 1 million new citizens were naturalized in time to vote for Clinton-Gore in 1996.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/222610

    I recall Judicial Watch having a role in exposing all of this, as well.
    , @Jeffrey Johnson
    What happened between '92 and '96? It's simple, the 1986 amnesty Mexican new "Americans" started voting.
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  13. 11 Bravo says:

    Somewhat OT – Slightly related to the immigrant vote is the Puerto Rican vote. I know they are citizens and can vote in presidential elections, but only if they reside in the states.

    I have come across comments on this blog over the past year that suggested parts of Florida have received a material amount of Puerto Ricans and has put the state in play for the democrats.

    So now that Puerto Rico is without power due to the hurricane, will this lead to more Puerto Ricans leaving the islands for the states? And if so, could this jeopardize Trump’s chances in 2020?

    Wouldn’t this be ironic that even if Trump does not back down on DACA, he ends up getting burned by a flood of Puerto Ricans freely moving to the states due to the extended power outages forecast for the island. Trump said he was going to visit the island to assess the damages. He probably needs to start infrastructure spending in Puerto Rico to head off a potential exodus.

    Read More
    • Agree: unit472
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Listened to just a few minutes of NPR tonight, and it was enough to hear them refer to P.R. as an "island of three and a half million Americans" as opposed to residents, or inhabitants, etc.

    They never, ever miss a chance to steer their listeners. Which is to say, they're just like the rest of the MSM.

    But, start spending in Puerto Rico? It's already a welfare-state basket case. A bottomless pit of (real) American tax dollars which should have been granted independence long ago. At this point, whether they want it or not, and all the Puerto Ricans should be sent home to rebuild their country.

    Notice they no longer agitate for independence now that they're on the gravy train.

    , @11 Bravo
    Speaking about the potential of Puerto Ricos to flee to the US in light of the hurricane, the WaPo today has an article about the potential exodus of Puerto Ricans to the mainland
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  14. @theo the kraut
    OT--A detailed report on Angela Merkel's career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    Great report, some errors:

    - “Japan … tsunami that claimed 25,000 lives”
    ->

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami

    15,894 deaths
    6,152 injured
    2,562 people missing

    - “Germany has so far received 1.5 million migrants over 2015–16, with at least 100,000 arriving with no papers or dubious ones”
    ->

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article165288255/Bosbach-will-Migranten-ohne-Pass-an-der-Grenze-abweisen.html

    “Zwei Drittel der Ausländer, die nach Deutschland kommen, haben keinen Pass”
    (Two thirds of the foreigners that come to Germany don’t have a passport)

    Scheüble -> Schäuble

    Read More
    • Replies: @snorlax
    The tsunami number is just out-of-date; the initial numbers released were 11,578 dead and 16,451 missing (for a total of 28,029), while the latest numbers are 15,894 dead and 2,546 missing (whom we can pretty well assume are dead), for a total of 18,456. And 25k isn't that crazy an estimate for the total including indirect fatalities (elderly and infirm people dying from the loss of power and clean drinking water, etc).
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  15. jackson says:

    2008 was whitey vs. coalition of the ascendant
    2016 was whitey vs. whitey

    Read More
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  16. David says:
    @eah
    Left unsaid is how the "immigrant vote" is large enough to merit discussion -- sad -- here's what they'll be voting for next year:

    https://twitter.com/Brannon1776/status/911037052136886272

    From that indictment of immigrants’ typical view of the first amendment, to thinking to add a comment on their views on the meaninglessness of the second, it occurred to me that demanding public figures recognize the zeroth amendment might convince them to renounce it. “Don’t you think..?”

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?” I suppose Hillary might have said yes, but it seems more likely she would say no before finding herself at a loss for the reasons why.

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”

    I've said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: 'Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?'

    Re "immigrant voters", how many are the type who need a non-English ballot? I don't know how many states or voting locales provide non-English voting material, but the state of Virginia has a pretty plain statement (that seems to quote directly from the Voting Rights Act):

    The Voting Rights Act mandates that a state or political subdivision must provide language assistance to voters if more than five percent of voting age citizens are members of a single language minority group and do not ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’...

    So they don't ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’, but should be able to vote anyway.

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  17. Wilkey says:

    Bush did well among Hispanics even in the 2000 election when, iirc, he didn’t explicitly campaign on support for amnesty and didn’t have a housing bubble to benefit from.

    The reality is that while many immigrants will vote their (real or supposed) best interests, many are simply attracted by confidence and charisma – especially those immigrants who were attracted to America because it is America, not just because it offers better pay and a bigger welfare state than whatever craphole they came from.

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it’s traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America – unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Tyrion

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it’s traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America – unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.
     
    Westerners seems to actually listen to progressive nonsense and believe that white people are unpopular around the world. Nohing could be further from the truth. White people are easily the world's most liked.
    , @MarkinLA
    But the whole Bush family has always been for amnesty and support for illegal immigration. We don't know what was done by the Republicans at the local level to convince illegals that Bush was a better deal for an amnesty - Republican President and Republican Congress.
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  18. Wilkey says:

    We shouldn’t ignore the 1996 data point, though. Remember that Amnesty Jack Kemp, according to all the right MSM outlets, was supposed to be the bright, shining multiculti future of a GOP that abandoned absolutely every belief except for those that benefitted the rich. And he proved the popularity of that idea by helping his ticket do 17.9% worse among the foreign born than George H. W. Bush just 4 years before.

    Read More
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  19. Glaivester says: • Website
    @Jonathan Mason
    I knew a Dominican women who was newly arrived in the US at the time of Obama's election. She was not eligible to vote but she said she was for Obama "because he is like me" i.e. brown-skinned. (She did not identify as "black" because the Spanish word for "black" (negro) does not have the same connotation as the English word signifying anyone of African or mixed African descent. It just indicates a color, and other words in Spanish such as moreno (brown) are used in the same way as whites might use blonde or brunette to give a hint of what someone looks like, but don't classify a person by race. Someone who is negro and someone who is moreno might well be brothers with the same parents. They just have different color skin.)

    As a legal immigrant myself, I think I can say that we legal immigrants have no particular sympathy for those who wish to immigrate without paying the fees, but the truth is that most of the people who immigrate illegally are not qualified professionals trying to sneak in on the cheap, but just people trying to make a living and get by any way they can, and maybe send some money home to the family, or maybe even save up to buy a plot of land and build a home back home. If you grew up in a hut on a plantation or farm in rural Central America or one of the islands, then legal paperwork is probably not your real forte and you may not be all that concerned about getting qualified for social security or Medicare, though if you stay for a long time, those things may come into play.

    but the truth is that most of the people who immigrate illegally are not qualified professionals trying to sneak in on the cheap, but just people trying to make a living and get by any way they can, and maybe send some money home to the family, or maybe even save up to buy a plot of land and build a home back home. If you grew up in a hut on a plantation or farm in rural Central America or one of the islands, then legal paperwork is probably not your real forte

    The problem is not that illegal aliens came in the wrong way, although often people phrase it that way so as to skirt the idea that they are bigots. The problem is that illegal aliens are people who probably have no legal way to get here – and the reason is that the American people want to keep them out. Put another way, they are the riff-raff that our immigration laws were designed to keep out, so when they come anyway, that is a problem.

    Read More
    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
  20. unit472 says:

    My guess is Trump did better among Asians than either Bush, McCain or Romney.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Ron Mexico
    "Trump did better among Asians..." I believe this to be true. Anecdotal, but one of my Chinese students was explaining why Trump was preferred to Hillary and it had to do with Affirmative Action and Democrats trying to cap Asian admittance in to major universities to the benefit of blacks and Hispanics. She explained that this is how her parents felt as well. Our one and only red-dot Indian student concurred.
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  21. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    A fourth explanation is that the Democrats are and were the party of the welfare state, government transfer and affirmative action.
    Not to mention ‘liberal’ law enforcement, ‘totem pole’ etc.

    Read More
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  22. Thomas says:

    Another factor was probably that the Democratic Party by Obama’s second term had become more explicitly and aggressively black at least in its messaging (i.e., Black Lives Matter, the “Mothers of the Movement” at the DNC) and so less appealing to non-black minorities. Ironically, Hillary’s necessarily efforts to not completely bleed away Obama’s black voters may have had a perverse result.

    Read More
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  23. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @11 Bravo
    Somewhat OT - Slightly related to the immigrant vote is the Puerto Rican vote. I know they are citizens and can vote in presidential elections, but only if they reside in the states.

    I have come across comments on this blog over the past year that suggested parts of Florida have received a material amount of Puerto Ricans and has put the state in play for the democrats.

    So now that Puerto Rico is without power due to the hurricane, will this lead to more Puerto Ricans leaving the islands for the states? And if so, could this jeopardize Trump's chances in 2020?

    Wouldn't this be ironic that even if Trump does not back down on DACA, he ends up getting burned by a flood of Puerto Ricans freely moving to the states due to the extended power outages forecast for the island. Trump said he was going to visit the island to assess the damages. He probably needs to start infrastructure spending in Puerto Rico to head off a potential exodus.

    Listened to just a few minutes of NPR tonight, and it was enough to hear them refer to P.R. as an “island of three and a half million Americans” as opposed to residents, or inhabitants, etc.

    They never, ever miss a chance to steer their listeners. Which is to say, they’re just like the rest of the MSM.

    But, start spending in Puerto Rico? It’s already a welfare-state basket case. A bottomless pit of (real) American tax dollars which should have been granted independence long ago. At this point, whether they want it or not, and all the Puerto Ricans should be sent home to rebuild their country.

    Notice they no longer agitate for independence now that they’re on the gravy train.

    Read More
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  24. Tyrion says:
    @Wilkey
    Bush did well among Hispanics even in the 2000 election when, iirc, he didn't explicitly campaign on support for amnesty and didn't have a housing bubble to benefit from.

    The reality is that while many immigrants will vote their (real or supposed) best interests, many are simply attracted by confidence and charisma - especially those immigrants who were attracted to America because it is America, not just because it offers better pay and a bigger welfare state than whatever craphole they came from.

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it's traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America - unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it’s traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America – unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.

    Westerners seems to actually listen to progressive nonsense and believe that white people are unpopular around the world. Nohing could be further from the truth. White people are easily the world’s most liked.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Wilkey
    "Westerners seems to actually listen to progressive nonsense and believe that white people are unpopular around the world. Nohing could be further from the truth. White people are easily the world’s most liked."

    In some cases we're liked, in other cases we're envied.

    There's a huge disconnect in the way the Left talks about non-white immigrants and the way they try to attract their votes. They tell us that these immigrants come here for all the right reasons - for opportunity, because they love America, etc. - but they attract their votes by openly loathing and apologizing for America, by proclaiming that these immigrants are oppressed, and by offering them handouts.
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  25. eah says:
    @theo the kraut
    OT--A detailed report on Angela Merkel's career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    https://afd-fanshop.de/images/product_images/info_images/neuedeutsche.jpg
    , @DFH
    Twitter bio says he's a writer for 'Gay Times' and a 'Neo-Blairite'. Typical bugman. No wonder he has such disgust at the idea of (white) people having children.
    , @theo the kraut
    I ripped him some new ones, got blocked. Le sigh...
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  26. eah says:
    @eah
    https://twitter.com/JackO_May/status/910816652379467776

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    https://twitter.com/MrFrexit/status/911121757360312320
    , @theo the kraut
    "New Germans?" We do that ourselves.

    Take heart Germany! AfD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany)
    , @eah
    https://twitter.com/nontolerantman/status/911143356914393088
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  27. eah says:
    @eah
    https://afd-fanshop.de/images/product_images/info_images/neuedeutsche.jpg
    Read More
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  28. DFH says:
    @eah
    https://twitter.com/JackO_May/status/910816652379467776

    Twitter bio says he’s a writer for ‘Gay Times’ and a ‘Neo-Blairite’. Typical bugman. No wonder he has such disgust at the idea of (white) people having children.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Altai

    ‘Neo-Blairite’
     
    He so loathes and fears gruff working class men that he'll destroy every facet of a good life in his own country to soothe his anxieties whilst also pretending he is a highly empathetic man who is progressive and against 'oppression', disgusting. So long as he never gets his hands dirty, is never impolite to anyone personally, he'll never care about the abstract consequences and won't think he's crushing whole communities.

    It's astonishing how fast the worst off in society in Western countries have become so vilified. Yet we live in a world where because he says 'refugees welcome' and is gay he has the moral highground and can't be ejected from the left. 30 years ago he'd have no place in the Labour party, now his kind runs it.

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  29. Neoconned says:
    @Anon
    Why? Because shut up, that's why.

    --Love, the Establishment.

    Carville said it best….its the economy stupid.

    And yet politicans even today like trump refuse to focus on the economy….instead worrying about wedge issues or foreign policy

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    • Replies: @MarkinLA
    Stopping illegal immigration is probably the most important issue regarding the economy - and just about everything else in the country from infrastructure, schools, welfare..... So it isn't a wedge issue to me.
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  30. Man, it’s almost like Lee Kuan Yew was right!

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  31. eah says:
    @David
    From that indictment of immigrants' typical view of the first amendment, to thinking to add a comment on their views on the meaninglessness of the second, it occurred to me that demanding public figures recognize the zeroth amendment might convince them to renounce it. "Don't you think..?"

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, "Don't they have a right to come?" I suppose Hillary might have said yes, but it seems more likely she would say no before finding herself at a loss for the reasons why.

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”

    I’ve said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: ‘Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?’

    Re “immigrant voters”, how many are the type who need a non-English ballot? I don’t know how many states or voting locales provide non-English voting material, but the state of Virginia has a pretty plain statement (that seems to quote directly from the Voting Rights Act):

    The Voting Rights Act mandates that a state or political subdivision must provide language assistance to voters if more than five percent of voting age citizens are members of a single language minority group and do not ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’…

    So they don’t ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’, but should be able to vote anyway.

    Read More
    • Replies: @bomag

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone... has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”
     
    They sure facilitate anyone coming and staying. Hillary et al will talk around the issue with appeals to "nation of immigrants" and universal values.

    each presidential candidate ought to be asked: ‘Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?
     


    Maybe if we had a free and representative press. Any such questioner in today's climate would be attacked as advocating genocide of Black people, etc.
    , @Coemgen

    I’ve said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: ‘Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?’
     
    No. We do not need any more mealy-mouthed wimps as presidential candidates and please stop looking out of the elites' Overton Window.

    What we really need is for U.S. Presidential candidates to vociferously denounce the ethnic cleansing of white Americans. They need to put forward plans to stop then reverse the damage done to the families of U.S. citizens, by the U.S. Government and its NGOs, during the past half century.

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  32. @eah
    https://afd-fanshop.de/images/product_images/info_images/neuedeutsche.jpg

    “New Germans?” We do that ourselves.

    Take heart Germany! AfD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany)

    Read More
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  33. eah says:
    @eah
    https://afd-fanshop.de/images/product_images/info_images/neuedeutsche.jpg
    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKUH6fmX0AA7t6f.jpg
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  34. eah says:

    Ein ‘Lichtbomb’ an Merkel: “Zu sehen ist die Szene als Lichtprojektion am Kanzleramt.”

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    Why English?
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  35. eah says:
    @eah
    https://twitter.com/nontolerantman/status/911143356914393088

    Read More
    • Replies: @Audacious epigone
    Check out Paul Ryan's twitter cover photo.
    , @eah
    Rommel was given a choice and chose suicide to protect his family after being accused of involvement in a plot against Hitler.

    #MerkelLand: #Antifa left-wingers have painted and devastated the monument of Field Marshal Rommel (Desert Fox) in Heidenheim

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKZfhm6VoAEVzBx.jpg
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  36. bomag says:
    @Tmanz
    What explains 1992 -> 1996? That's where this divide first seems to have shown up.

    1992 -> 1996?

    Interesting gap; a highest to lowest swing. Not sure, but HW had some draft off the 1986 amnesty; HW negotiated the NAFTA deal. Clinton pushed hard for NAFTA, getting it implemented in 1994. NAFTA was probably seen as code for “free trade in people”.

    Read More
    • Replies: @snorlax
    Immigrants tend to have a strong pro-incumbent bias, hence all those >60% Hillary, majority-minority districts in California and South Florida that continue to return Republican congresscritters by equally strong margins, Hawaii and California turning purplish in '04, Silicon Valley electing a Republican congressman (Tom Campbell) by big margins as late as '98 (and if he hadn't retired to run for Senate he'd probably have lasted up to '06).

    That's the simpler and better explanation for the '92-'96 swing.
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  37. Yak-15 says:

    Why is it ok for foreigners to come to my country and vote for politicians that will challenges the interests of natives and remake native society? Absurd.

    Read More
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  38. bomag says:
    @eah
    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”

    I've said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: 'Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?'

    Re "immigrant voters", how many are the type who need a non-English ballot? I don't know how many states or voting locales provide non-English voting material, but the state of Virginia has a pretty plain statement (that seems to quote directly from the Voting Rights Act):

    The Voting Rights Act mandates that a state or political subdivision must provide language assistance to voters if more than five percent of voting age citizens are members of a single language minority group and do not ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’...

    So they don't ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’, but should be able to vote anyway.

    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone… has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”

    They sure facilitate anyone coming and staying. Hillary et al will talk around the issue with appeals to “nation of immigrants” and universal values.

    each presidential candidate ought to be asked: ‘Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?

    Maybe if we had a free and representative press. Any such questioner in today’s climate would be attacked as advocating genocide of Black people, etc.

    Read More
    • Agree: Bernardista
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  39. TWalsh2 says:

    Immigrants don’t like giving up their share of the pie either. If blanket amnesty was enacted today, 2/3rds of ‘em would be saying “no more,we got enough” tomorrow.

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  40. LondonBob says:

    The implosion of the US economy meant the Democrats could have run anyone and won. They could have run a completely unqualified nobody, with no experience and an exotic radical left background…oh they did. Of course Obama was a talented politician and McCain spectacularly bad, but it was always going to be a Dem landslide.
    Peter Hitchens captured the elation of the foreigner triumph over Americans in his Obama election column.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1084111/PETER-HITCHENS-The-night-waved-goodbye-America–best-hope-Earth.html

    Basically it looks like foreign born vote the same as natives, ignoring the Dem bias. Bush the elder was solid enough, Clinton accentuated Dole’s dullness, time for a change in 2000, stay the course 04, disgust with Bush the younger in 08 and disgust still too strong in 12. Perhaps Trump didn’t do quite as well as he might have with foreigners, but we all know he made up with the native vote.

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  41. Art Deco says:

    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

    Huh? Hawaii hasn’t been run by it’s indigenes since 1893 and they accounted for no more than about 11% of the population at the time of BO’s birth in 1961. Honolulu is an odd racial polyglot with some eccentric local features. However, it’s English-speaking stem-to-stern and has a relentless informality that antedated the appearance of such on the Mainland. As for BO’s cosmopolitan attitude, that’s bog standard among big-city haut bourgeois, though one might wager less pronounced in the South, in the interior, and among people outside the education-media-government-law-finance nexus.

    And, of course, he didn’t know his birth-father from a cord of wood and the impression his step-father &c. left on him can be assessed by watching a video of him trying to utter 40 seconds worth of sentences in Malay.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    Art, i agree with all your points. But still if there is any notable factor, Steve's statement

    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.
     
    seems close to right to me.

    First off Hawaii is still vis-a-vis the 48 (and even Alaska) a weird less traditionally American place. And then there's his four years growing up in Indonesia, with a foreign step-dad. Then even more important that Obama's dad--if we believe the narrative--was a foreigner, and that Obama is some vaguely (in the American context) exotic, dark skinned but not typically American black guy. (If Obama had been a generic American white guy from Hawaii, who had done a childhood stint in Indonesia while his dad was posted there in the foreign service, then the appeal wouldn't have been there. The "not-typically-American" racial thing is definitely the key factor.)

    But put it all together, when he hit the mainland to go to Occidental, Obama was much much more like an "immigrant" than any American presidential candidate. And his story of "otherness" while being an American success i think had some definite appeal to immigrants.

    , @Spike Gomes
    Oh we may seem informal, but we have an "honne and tatemae" thing we inherited from the Japanese immigrants that gives mainlanders headaches if they live here for any length of time.

    Even those aloha shirts ain't what they seem. Most of the movers and shakers (except lawyers who wear suits) here wear ones that cost a minimum of 200 dollars, and how one wears it (tucked or untucked, black slacks versus brown slacks, etc) is a calling card as to where one works (finance, real estate, tourism).

    Informality just generates its own social rulesets.
    , @AndrewR
    I don't know much about Obama's time in Indonesia or about his relationship with his stepdad, nor do I really care to learn, but I know he lived there for about four years, leaving after the fourth grade. Children of that age have a great capacity to learn second languages but it seems they also have a great capacity to forget them too. I think people retain more of a language if they learn it when they're older, even though it's also harder to learn a language when you're older.

    I learned Portuguese fluently after living in Brazil for a year when I was 17, and I have retained 90% of it despite only having returned for a few weeks at a time a few times since then (and using it very little while back in the US (maybe about two hours of conversation/reading/writing per year in Portuguese)). But I was basically an adult at that point. When Obama learned Indonesian, he was still a prepubescent child. And of course, Portuguese is much closer to English than Indonesian is.
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  42. Latinos and Asians had been in the US for more years by the time you get to Trump which means they become more Americanized that favors the GOP candidnate. Maybe, in the next decade Mexicans that are more blue collar will vote for Republicans more since they cut down on immigration.

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  43. Wilkey says:
    @Tyrion

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it’s traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America – unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.
     
    Westerners seems to actually listen to progressive nonsense and believe that white people are unpopular around the world. Nohing could be further from the truth. White people are easily the world's most liked.

    “Westerners seems to actually listen to progressive nonsense and believe that white people are unpopular around the world. Nohing could be further from the truth. White people are easily the world’s most liked.”

    In some cases we’re liked, in other cases we’re envied.

    There’s a huge disconnect in the way the Left talks about non-white immigrants and the way they try to attract their votes. They tell us that these immigrants come here for all the right reasons – for opportunity, because they love America, etc. – but they attract their votes by openly loathing and apologizing for America, by proclaiming that these immigrants are oppressed, and by offering them handouts.

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  44. @Tmanz
    What explains 1992 -> 1996? That's where this divide first seems to have shown up.

    “What explains 1992 -> 1996?” David Schippers, House investigator in Clinton impeachment addressed this in his book Sell Out. Al Gore and Citizenship USA. From National Review, “Sell Out also includes an appendix of documents which demonstrate Al Gore’s direct involvement in turning Citizenship USA into “a pro-Democrat voter mill” in which English tests were waived and criminal records of prospective citizens swept under the rug in places such as New York City, Chicago, Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston, and Newark. (Each of these cities was located in a key battleground state during the 1996 presidential election.) Ultimately, over 1 million new citizens were naturalized in time to vote for Clinton-Gore in 1996.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/222610

    I recall Judicial Watch having a role in exposing all of this, as well.

    Read More
    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Ivy
    Al Gore's carbon footprint impact takes many hidden figures and forms. It is the gift that keeps on giving. His life's work has a few uncomfortable truths that won't see much of the light of day. Too bad, as the disinfectant properties of sunshine are widely acknowledged.
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  45. Altai says:

    Correct headline:

    Why did groups most likely to benefit the most from removing the extreme downward pressure of mass migration and especially illegal immigration vote for Trump at higher rates than McCain?

    No amount of income redistribution can compare with the sheer amount of breathing space economically and socially from expelling or stopping the flow of mass migration into Western Countries, all of them have basically mortgaged the future of their young people who can’t start their own families. It’s hardly surprising that a Republican candidate, once given a total monopoly on this kind of policy, ate into traditionally Democrat voters. If Trump stopped immigration to a trickle and deported everyone he could, he’d do more to help the working class and hurt the rich than if he also took an axe to the entire social welfare system. Mass migration is a form of income redistribution from the poor to the rich, both directly and from having a more ‘diverse’ population that will engage in ethnic politics at the expense of class politics.

    This is before we address the sociological benefits of having more living space for ones own society and not having to share it with foreign out-groups. People prefer to marry in their own group, so now every 2nd of 3rd person you meet isn’t from your group, your potential pool is dissipated, same goes for friends and deeper networks.

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  46. Foreign born low information voters or voters with low English language proficiency had no problem figuring out that US Senator John McCain was a dangerous nutcake. Foreign born voters also had no problem figuring out that Hillary Clinton was a screeching harpy. President Trump probably seemed like a hale and hearty American of the sort that many foreign born voters might have imagined to be the real McCoy in terms of “Americanism.” The percentage of foreign born voters might have also declined in the 2016 presidential election.

    The presidential candidacies of both John McCain and Mitt Romney were fraudulent from the get-go. McCain and Romney were placemen used by the treasonous rats in the GOP ruling class to forestall the emergence of a patriotic leader pledged to ending nation-wrecking mass immigration and restoring the sovereignty of the United States.

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  47. Altai says:
    @DFH
    Twitter bio says he's a writer for 'Gay Times' and a 'Neo-Blairite'. Typical bugman. No wonder he has such disgust at the idea of (white) people having children.

    ‘Neo-Blairite’

    He so loathes and fears gruff working class men that he’ll destroy every facet of a good life in his own country to soothe his anxieties whilst also pretending he is a highly empathetic man who is progressive and against ‘oppression’, disgusting. So long as he never gets his hands dirty, is never impolite to anyone personally, he’ll never care about the abstract consequences and won’t think he’s crushing whole communities.

    It’s astonishing how fast the worst off in society in Western countries have become so vilified. Yet we live in a world where because he says ‘refugees welcome’ and is gay he has the moral highground and can’t be ejected from the left. 30 years ago he’d have no place in the Labour party, now his kind runs it.

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  48. @theo the kraut
    OT--A detailed report on Angela Merkel's career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    In other words, yet another red diaper baby working to destroy their nation. What else is new?

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  49. @unit472
    My guess is Trump did better among Asians than either Bush, McCain or Romney.

    “Trump did better among Asians…” I believe this to be true. Anecdotal, but one of my Chinese students was explaining why Trump was preferred to Hillary and it had to do with Affirmative Action and Democrats trying to cap Asian admittance in to major universities to the benefit of blacks and Hispanics. She explained that this is how her parents felt as well. Our one and only red-dot Indian student concurred.

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    • Replies: @snorlax
    My impression (based on the available data, and conversations online and in real life) is that Trump made significant improvements with recent, ESL Chinese immigrants, and with recent, ESL Indian immigrants, but tanked with all other Asian and South Asian groups (Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Pakistanis, assimilated Chinese and Indians).

    Someone posted a chart of estimates of the Asian vote in ~100 congressional districts and in virtually all of them (except a handful of wealthy suburban seats in Texas with long-term GOP incumbents) over 90%(!!!) voted Democrat. Which is comparable to blacks.
    , @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    India has its own intra-national AA and it is bitterly resented by educated professionals who are not of the specially protected classes.

    One would think that wisdom would be to seek out allies rather than foment enemies, a distinction that seems to slide by the majority of commenters on Unz.

    As for the example of the Chinese student, a quiet hallway "you might need to start saying so, more loudly, and announcing your likely sympathies for allies, more loudly, then we might get somewhere because it would waken people to opportunities for mutually beneficial coalitions" ... is the kind of 1:1 communication that could add up in the long run.

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  50. Altai says:
    @Audacious Epigone
    Entirely anecdotal, but during the campaign I was pretty explicitly pro-Trump on social media sites on my "in real life" persona, and I had four friend requests from sub-Saharan Africans--currently living there, three in Nigeria, one in Benin--who paired the requests with messages about how much they admired Trump. None of the four were connected through one another. It was bizarre. Definitely made an impression, especially after the first one.

    Maybe Melania was a factor.

    Trump is insanely rich and is highly entertaining/extremely combative in relating to opposition. Even if he stopped all immigration from Nigeria he’d likely still have fans of his persona over there if nothing else.

    He’s basically the Mohammed Ali of American politics, it speaks to a West African mentality.

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    • Replies: @Redman
    Totally agree. I was a huge Ron Paul supporter in 2008 and 2012. So naturally, I supported Paul the younger in 2016.

    Until the first GOP debate.

    Trump not only showed he could handle attacks, he seemed to enjoy it. At the same time he was smart enough to see that Rand Paul had the right message: end pointless foreign intervention, use the savings to work on rebuilding US infrastructure, ban most Muslim immigration, reduce regulation, etc. So Trump took it right out of his hands.

    As a firm anti-interventionist, I saw Paul as the guy. And assumed Jeb and Rubio would flame out as empty suits (which was basically what happened). But in the Ohio debate, Trump knew the real competition was Paul, and he crushed him with comments about his hair. Silly, but politically savvy and effective. Trump knew Paul had the intellectual, organizational and ideological chops. But he couldn't compete with the tall, charismatic and huge personality of DJT. So he went right at him.

    Right then, I decided this is how the paleoconservative-libertarians get into the White House.

    I'm sure that many could see that "strong man" quality right away. Trump is so despised by the "people who matter" that even immigrants can respect that kind of confidence. It was and is palpable.
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  51. @Art Deco
    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

    Huh? Hawaii hasn't been run by it's indigenes since 1893 and they accounted for no more than about 11% of the population at the time of BO's birth in 1961. Honolulu is an odd racial polyglot with some eccentric local features. However, it's English-speaking stem-to-stern and has a relentless informality that antedated the appearance of such on the Mainland. As for BO's cosmopolitan attitude, that's bog standard among big-city haut bourgeois, though one might wager less pronounced in the South, in the interior, and among people outside the education-media-government-law-finance nexus.

    And, of course, he didn't know his birth-father from a cord of wood and the impression his step-father &c. left on him can be assessed by watching a video of him trying to utter 40 seconds worth of sentences in Malay.

    Art, i agree with all your points. But still if there is any notable factor, Steve’s statement

    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

    seems close to right to me.

    First off Hawaii is still vis-a-vis the 48 (and even Alaska) a weird less traditionally American place. And then there’s his four years growing up in Indonesia, with a foreign step-dad. Then even more important that Obama’s dad–if we believe the narrative–was a foreigner, and that Obama is some vaguely (in the American context) exotic, dark skinned but not typically American black guy. (If Obama had been a generic American white guy from Hawaii, who had done a childhood stint in Indonesia while his dad was posted there in the foreign service, then the appeal wouldn’t have been there. The “not-typically-American” racial thing is definitely the key factor.)

    But put it all together, when he hit the mainland to go to Occidental, Obama was much much more like an “immigrant” than any American presidential candidate. And his story of “otherness” while being an American success i think had some definite appeal to immigrants.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Bugg
    Based and he little we know about his prep school grades, highly likely he entered Occidental and Columbia as a foreign exchange student, but those records are sealed. We do know in the high end private high school his typical white person grandma paid for he mostly smoked dope and shot hoops.
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  52. MarkinLA says:
    @Neoconned
    Carville said it best....its the economy stupid.

    And yet politicans even today like trump refuse to focus on the economy....instead worrying about wedge issues or foreign policy

    Stopping illegal immigration is probably the most important issue regarding the economy – and just about everything else in the country from infrastructure, schools, welfare….. So it isn’t a wedge issue to me.

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    • Replies: @Neoconned
    You're partially right, immigration is or should be lumped in w economic issues.

    When i said wedge issue i meant the gays, abortion, etc
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  53. MarkinLA says:
    @Wilkey
    Bush did well among Hispanics even in the 2000 election when, iirc, he didn't explicitly campaign on support for amnesty and didn't have a housing bubble to benefit from.

    The reality is that while many immigrants will vote their (real or supposed) best interests, many are simply attracted by confidence and charisma - especially those immigrants who were attracted to America because it is America, not just because it offers better pay and a bigger welfare state than whatever craphole they came from.

    Republicans will never never never ever win the immigrants who came here looking for handouts but, being the party that believes in America and it's traditions, we can win a whole lot of immigrants who came looking for America - unless, like Romney and McCain, we try to apologize for being American.

    But the whole Bush family has always been for amnesty and support for illegal immigration. We don’t know what was done by the Republicans at the local level to convince illegals that Bush was a better deal for an amnesty – Republican President and Republican Congress.

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  54. @Tmanz
    What explains 1992 -> 1996? That's where this divide first seems to have shown up.

    What happened between ’92 and ’96? It’s simple, the 1986 amnesty Mexican new “Americans” started voting.

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  55. Audacious is a treasure.

    However, it seems like before diving into any detailed analysis, that if you really want to poke at immigrants political attitudes, you need to have a graph of immigrant share, adjusted for the swing in autochton share or at least total share.

    Obama trounced McCain globally–by 7–while Hillary only beat Trump by 2. So one could posit that 5 points of the immigrant swing from McCain to Trump is just “whatever else is going on”–economic conditions, political conditions, personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the candidates.

    Now, of course, simply adding/subtracting differentials isn’t right either as the Republican immigrant vote totals are low, so it’s a much larger % swing in the immigrant vote.

    Here’s an unsophisticated quickie take:
    Year/Candidate Total Swing Immigrant Swing Immigrant-Total
    92 Bush -5.5 -8.5 -3
    96 Dole -8.5 -45 -36.5
    00 Bush -.5 -21 -20.5
    04 Bush 2.5 -11 -13.5
    08 McCain -7 -49 -42
    12 Romney -5 -44.5 -39.5
    16 Trump -2 -35 -33

    Looked at this way, the election that really pops is actually ’96. Dole is massacred. And the immigrant vote moves from being a bit Democratic to wildly so. (Numbers for earlier elections would help.)

    My guess is the end of the Cold War was salient. Up until then Republicans were precieved as being the more serious party with regard to keeping the US standing up to the Commies–whom many immigrants were aware had or could mess up their home nations. After the end of the Cold War that argument for Republicans was gone, and with Clinton the Democrats were able to relabel the Republicans as the “uncool party”, the “evangelicals’ party” and “the white people’s party”.

    I think W had some visceral appeal to Hispanic men and he did a bit better with them. And then after 911 got back a bit of the Cold War appeal with the “stand against terrorism” appeal, plus the housing bubble for Hispanics. But basically since the end of the Cold War the Republican party to many immigrants looks like “the White party” or even “the uncool White racists party”. The Democrats Coalition of the Fringes branding has more or less been working.

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    • Replies: @res
    Any thoughts on whether who those immigrants actually were played a role? I believe there was significant immigration over those years. It would be interesting to also include absolute population and/or % share for immigrants over those years. Voting age population of course.
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  56. I don’t know how hard it is to do this but can’t we exclude Cubans from the “Hispanic vote”? It appears that they are out of sync with non-Cuban Hispanics and skew results. It seems like Republicans do terrible with non-Cuban Hispanics and so-so with Cuban Hispanics. So pro-amnesty Republican strategists will use numbers which are heavily stacked with Cubans to manipulate other Republicans into thinking Republicans can win the Hispanic vote if they cuck when there is literally no chance with non-Cuban Hispanics.

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  57. res says:
    @AnotherDad
    Audacious is a treasure.

    However, it seems like before diving into any detailed analysis, that if you really want to poke at immigrants political attitudes, you need to have a graph of immigrant share, adjusted for the swing in autochton share or at least total share.

    Obama trounced McCain globally--by 7--while Hillary only beat Trump by 2. So one could posit that 5 points of the immigrant swing from McCain to Trump is just "whatever else is going on"--economic conditions, political conditions, personal appeal (or lack thereof) of the candidates.

    Now, of course, simply adding/subtracting differentials isn't right either as the Republican immigrant vote totals are low, so it's a much larger % swing in the immigrant vote.

    Here's an unsophisticated quickie take:
    Year/Candidate Total Swing Immigrant Swing Immigrant-Total
    92 Bush -5.5 -8.5 -3
    96 Dole -8.5 -45 -36.5
    00 Bush -.5 -21 -20.5
    04 Bush 2.5 -11 -13.5
    08 McCain -7 -49 -42
    12 Romney -5 -44.5 -39.5
    16 Trump -2 -35 -33


    Looked at this way, the election that really pops is actually '96. Dole is massacred. And the immigrant vote moves from being a bit Democratic to wildly so. (Numbers for earlier elections would help.)

    My guess is the end of the Cold War was salient. Up until then Republicans were precieved as being the more serious party with regard to keeping the US standing up to the Commies--whom many immigrants were aware had or could mess up their home nations. After the end of the Cold War that argument for Republicans was gone, and with Clinton the Democrats were able to relabel the Republicans as the "uncool party", the "evangelicals' party" and "the white people's party".

    I think W had some visceral appeal to Hispanic men and he did a bit better with them. And then after 911 got back a bit of the Cold War appeal with the "stand against terrorism" appeal, plus the housing bubble for Hispanics. But basically since the end of the Cold War the Republican party to many immigrants looks like "the White party" or even "the uncool White racists party". The Democrats Coalition of the Fringes branding has more or less been working.

    Any thoughts on whether who those immigrants actually were played a role? I believe there was significant immigration over those years. It would be interesting to also include absolute population and/or % share for immigrants over those years. Voting age population of course.

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  58. McCain did worse because people vote for those who are like themselves. Between the choice of a foreigner (Obama was a foreigner not by birth but by upbringing) and an American, an immigrant will choose a foreigner. Immigrants rightly sensed that Obama, raised in Indonesia, was close to them. McCain offered amnesty and it was meaningless. I have friends who are immigrants from Europe, generally somewhat conservative on matters of the role of government (compared to Latin Americans), and they preferred Obama to McCain. They hated Trump for no particular reason at all that I could tell but they did hate him. One thing I have noted among our immigrant friends (South Africa, France, Netherlands, Romania) is that they do not recognize that there is any such thing as an American nationality and whoever claims that there is such a thing (such as me), makes them uncomfortable.

    Between two American candidates, the gap will narrow, as it did with Hillary but no Republican will ever get a majority of that vote and the Democrats will learn that lesson.

    The geriatric white liberal American men (Biden, Kerry, Sanders), who have not ruled out running again in 2020, are the last of their kind. Dinosaurs after the extinction event.

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  59. AndrewR says:
    @Audacious Epigone
    Entirely anecdotal, but during the campaign I was pretty explicitly pro-Trump on social media sites on my "in real life" persona, and I had four friend requests from sub-Saharan Africans--currently living there, three in Nigeria, one in Benin--who paired the requests with messages about how much they admired Trump. None of the four were connected through one another. It was bizarre. Definitely made an impression, especially after the first one.

    Maybe Melania was a factor.

    Not bizarre. Trump embodies the strongman archetype that is arguably the only viable one in Africa.

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    • Replies: @Tyrion

    Not bizarre. Trump embodies the strongman archetype that is arguably the only viable one in Africa.
     
    Not really, but I can see how you might think this given a contemporary perspective. Trump is merely not given to pathetic pandering. All healthy cultures can respect that.
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  60. @Art Deco
    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

    Huh? Hawaii hasn't been run by it's indigenes since 1893 and they accounted for no more than about 11% of the population at the time of BO's birth in 1961. Honolulu is an odd racial polyglot with some eccentric local features. However, it's English-speaking stem-to-stern and has a relentless informality that antedated the appearance of such on the Mainland. As for BO's cosmopolitan attitude, that's bog standard among big-city haut bourgeois, though one might wager less pronounced in the South, in the interior, and among people outside the education-media-government-law-finance nexus.

    And, of course, he didn't know his birth-father from a cord of wood and the impression his step-father &c. left on him can be assessed by watching a video of him trying to utter 40 seconds worth of sentences in Malay.

    Oh we may seem informal, but we have an “honne and tatemae” thing we inherited from the Japanese immigrants that gives mainlanders headaches if they live here for any length of time.

    Even those aloha shirts ain’t what they seem. Most of the movers and shakers (except lawyers who wear suits) here wear ones that cost a minimum of 200 dollars, and how one wears it (tucked or untucked, black slacks versus brown slacks, etc) is a calling card as to where one works (finance, real estate, tourism).

    Informality just generates its own social rulesets.

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    • Replies: @Ivy
    And they seemed so sincere saying Aloha and Mahalo.
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  61. AndrewR says:
    @Art Deco
    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.

    Huh? Hawaii hasn't been run by it's indigenes since 1893 and they accounted for no more than about 11% of the population at the time of BO's birth in 1961. Honolulu is an odd racial polyglot with some eccentric local features. However, it's English-speaking stem-to-stern and has a relentless informality that antedated the appearance of such on the Mainland. As for BO's cosmopolitan attitude, that's bog standard among big-city haut bourgeois, though one might wager less pronounced in the South, in the interior, and among people outside the education-media-government-law-finance nexus.

    And, of course, he didn't know his birth-father from a cord of wood and the impression his step-father &c. left on him can be assessed by watching a video of him trying to utter 40 seconds worth of sentences in Malay.

    I don’t know much about Obama’s time in Indonesia or about his relationship with his stepdad, nor do I really care to learn, but I know he lived there for about four years, leaving after the fourth grade. Children of that age have a great capacity to learn second languages but it seems they also have a great capacity to forget them too. I think people retain more of a language if they learn it when they’re older, even though it’s also harder to learn a language when you’re older.

    I learned Portuguese fluently after living in Brazil for a year when I was 17, and I have retained 90% of it despite only having returned for a few weeks at a time a few times since then (and using it very little while back in the US (maybe about two hours of conversation/reading/writing per year in Portuguese)). But I was basically an adult at that point. When Obama learned Indonesian, he was still a prepubescent child. And of course, Portuguese is much closer to English than Indonesian is.

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  62. The Democrats have always overestimated the importance of immigration policy to Hispanic voters. In the first case, this issue is mostly of interest to those Hispanics who have illegal relatives — the illegals themselves can’t vote. Secondly, the ones most directly disadvantaged by gobs of immigration from Latin America are … American Hispanics. (After all, it’s their jobs that are being competed for, and their neighborhoods that are being swamped.) Thirdly, there are whole categories of Hispanics for whom immigration law is not a problem anyway, such as Puerto Ricans and Cubans.

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    • Replies: @Bill Jones
    "In the first case, this issue is mostly of interest to those Hispanics who have illegal relatives — the illegals themselves can’t vote. "

    Thanks for the laugh, nice little fantasy world you've got going there.

    https://mishtalk.com/2017/08/05/california-has-11-counties-with-more-registered-voters-than-voting-age-citizens-registered-voters-144-of-egilibility/
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  63. Bugg says:
    @AnotherDad
    Art, i agree with all your points. But still if there is any notable factor, Steve's statement

    More plausible is that immigrants sensed in Obama, even though he was technically born in an American state (having become one two years before), a fellow non-autochton.
     
    seems close to right to me.

    First off Hawaii is still vis-a-vis the 48 (and even Alaska) a weird less traditionally American place. And then there's his four years growing up in Indonesia, with a foreign step-dad. Then even more important that Obama's dad--if we believe the narrative--was a foreigner, and that Obama is some vaguely (in the American context) exotic, dark skinned but not typically American black guy. (If Obama had been a generic American white guy from Hawaii, who had done a childhood stint in Indonesia while his dad was posted there in the foreign service, then the appeal wouldn't have been there. The "not-typically-American" racial thing is definitely the key factor.)

    But put it all together, when he hit the mainland to go to Occidental, Obama was much much more like an "immigrant" than any American presidential candidate. And his story of "otherness" while being an American success i think had some definite appeal to immigrants.

    Based and he little we know about his prep school grades, highly likely he entered Occidental and Columbia as a foreign exchange student, but those records are sealed. We do know in the high end private high school his typical white person grandma paid for he mostly smoked dope and shot hoops.

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  64. @theo the kraut
    OT--A detailed report on Angela Merkel's career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    A a GDR politician Merkel was dedicated to the destruction of the West.

    She still is.

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    • Agree: Nico
    • Replies: @Nico
    The conclusion of that article is nothing if not chilling in its exposition of the extent to which unified Germany has absorbed the monolithic Stasi mentality that poisoned the entire existence of the GDR. Modern German "culture" as expressed through the media, "art" and entertainment is rotten to the core and it's no wonder.
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  65. Ivy says:
    @Ron Mexico
    "What explains 1992 -> 1996?" David Schippers, House investigator in Clinton impeachment addressed this in his book Sell Out. Al Gore and Citizenship USA. From National Review, "Sell Out also includes an appendix of documents which demonstrate Al Gore’s direct involvement in turning Citizenship USA into “a pro-Democrat voter mill” in which English tests were waived and criminal records of prospective citizens swept under the rug in places such as New York City, Chicago, Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Houston, and Newark. (Each of these cities was located in a key battleground state during the 1996 presidential election.) Ultimately, over 1 million new citizens were naturalized in time to vote for Clinton-Gore in 1996.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/222610

    I recall Judicial Watch having a role in exposing all of this, as well.

    Al Gore’s carbon footprint impact takes many hidden figures and forms. It is the gift that keeps on giving. His life’s work has a few uncomfortable truths that won’t see much of the light of day. Too bad, as the disinfectant properties of sunshine are widely acknowledged.

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    • Replies: @It's All Ball Bearings
    Gore is still searching for ManBearPig in the dark caves of his mind.
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  66. Because #dotard trumps bat-shit-crazy any day.

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  67. Ivy says:
    @Spike Gomes
    Oh we may seem informal, but we have an "honne and tatemae" thing we inherited from the Japanese immigrants that gives mainlanders headaches if they live here for any length of time.

    Even those aloha shirts ain't what they seem. Most of the movers and shakers (except lawyers who wear suits) here wear ones that cost a minimum of 200 dollars, and how one wears it (tucked or untucked, black slacks versus brown slacks, etc) is a calling card as to where one works (finance, real estate, tourism).

    Informality just generates its own social rulesets.

    And they seemed so sincere saying Aloha and Mahalo.

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  68. @Seamus Padraig
    The Democrats have always overestimated the importance of immigration policy to Hispanic voters. In the first case, this issue is mostly of interest to those Hispanics who have illegal relatives -- the illegals themselves can't vote. Secondly, the ones most directly disadvantaged by gobs of immigration from Latin America are ... American Hispanics. (After all, it's their jobs that are being competed for, and their neighborhoods that are being swamped.) Thirdly, there are whole categories of Hispanics for whom immigration law is not a problem anyway, such as Puerto Ricans and Cubans.

    “In the first case, this issue is mostly of interest to those Hispanics who have illegal relatives — the illegals themselves can’t vote. ”

    Thanks for the laugh, nice little fantasy world you’ve got going there.

    https://mishtalk.com/2017/08/05/california-has-11-counties-with-more-registered-voters-than-voting-age-citizens-registered-voters-144-of-egilibility/

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    • Replies: @Seamus Padraig
    OK, so explain how Trump actually managed to improve upon Mitt Romney's share of the Hispanic vote? Besides, Cali's a safe Democratic state anyway. If 2016 proved anything, it was that running massive, superfluous popular vote totals in safe states like CA and NY does absolutely nothing for the Dems if they lose the rest of the country.
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  69. Nico says:
    @theo the kraut
    OT--A detailed report on Angela Merkel's career by some German authors, anonymous authors, of course:

    [...] Her father, Horst Kasner, was a young, left-wing Lutheran priest living in Hamburg, West Germany, in 1954. A few months after his daughter Angela was born, the family moved to Templin, north of Berlin, in the former GDR. This was perhaps not the most obvious choice of settlement for a young West German priest, less than a year after the brutal Soviet military crackdown on the revolt against the GDR regime in Berlin on July 17, 1953. Normally people fled in the other direction if they could. Hundreds of thousands left the GDR in 1954.

    Soon Mr. Kasner became known as “The Red Pastor.” In the early 1960s he became leader of a priest seminar; its mission was to train a new generation of socialist church leaders. In the GDR, the Lutheran church was dominant. Mr. Kasner worked closely with the ruling party, the Socialist Unity Party, to build the new socialist church, Kirche im Sozialismus (the Church in Socialism), completely separated from the church in West Germany. Unlike many of the children of priests who were often denied access to higher education, Kasner’s daughter Angela was given the opportunity to study physics at Leipzig University, and later at the GDR’s foremost scientific institution, the Academy of Science in Berlin.

    http://takimag.com/article/merkels_great_transformation/print

    The good news is the most recent polls show the CDU/CSU and SPD on a downswing and the AfD on an upswing. Based on the trends seen in quite a few recent Western elections this should land us results in a couple of days that the talking heads in the press will no doubt deem “catastrophic.”

    The dislodging of the evil cow aka Merkel is probably still some time off. But the bolts appear to be coming loose.

    Let us pray…

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    • Replies: @snorlax
    Unfortunately, looking at the latest poll on Wikipedia, which is the also the best for the AfD and worst for the CDU/CSU, the percentages for the parties were, in descending order of insanity, and with equivalent US political figures for context:

    Left* (Bill Ayers) - 11%
    Greens (Al Franken) - 8%
    SPD (Hillary Clinton) - 21%
    CDU** (Ana Navarro) - 34%
    FDP (Jon Huntsman) - 9%
    AfD (Donald Trump) - 13%

    *The renamed former East German ruling party
    **Merkel's party

    So 34% of Germans think Merkel's been just the right amount of insane, 40% think she's not insane enough, and 22% think she's too insane, among whom 9% can barely be called saner than she is and 13% might actually have their heads screwed on straight.

    Germany's a long way from saving.
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  70. snorlax says:
    @Audacious Epigone
    Entirely anecdotal, but during the campaign I was pretty explicitly pro-Trump on social media sites on my "in real life" persona, and I had four friend requests from sub-Saharan Africans--currently living there, three in Nigeria, one in Benin--who paired the requests with messages about how much they admired Trump. None of the four were connected through one another. It was bizarre. Definitely made an impression, especially after the first one.

    Maybe Melania was a factor.

    I keep my politics under wraps on social media attached to my real name, and I also periodically get friend requests from Nigerians, sometimes with notes attached. I think they’re just looking for marks for the Nigerian prince scam.

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    • Replies: @Audacious epigone
    I get a lot of those, but they disappear quickly. These are real people. Maybe their strategy is to bore deep instead of casting a wide net. I like to think I have a good eye for scams but maybe you're right.
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  71. Skeptic says:

    It was the economic catastrophe right before election skewing things. Remember there was a brief moment where the lie that republicans wouldn’t bailout ‘homeowners’ had legs. Obama must’ve looked like a better bet if you were drowning, especially if you had ‘undocumented’ family and loans.

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  72. snorlax says:
    @theo the kraut
    Great report, some errors:

    - "Japan ... tsunami that claimed 25,000 lives"
    ->
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami
    15,894 deaths
    6,152 injured
    2,562 people missing

    - "Germany has so far received 1.5 million migrants over 2015–16, with at least 100,000 arriving with no papers or dubious ones"
    ->
    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article165288255/Bosbach-will-Migranten-ohne-Pass-an-der-Grenze-abweisen.html
    "Zwei Drittel der Ausländer, die nach Deutschland kommen, haben keinen Pass"
    (Two thirds of the foreigners that come to Germany don't have a passport)

    Scheüble -> Schäuble

    The tsunami number is just out-of-date; the initial numbers released were 11,578 dead and 16,451 missing (for a total of 28,029), while the latest numbers are 15,894 dead and 2,546 missing (whom we can pretty well assume are dead), for a total of 18,456. And 25k isn’t that crazy an estimate for the total including indirect fatalities (elderly and infirm people dying from the loss of power and clean drinking water, etc).

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  73. Nico says:
    @Bill Jones
    A a GDR politician Merkel was dedicated to the destruction of the West.

    She still is.

    The conclusion of that article is nothing if not chilling in its exposition of the extent to which unified Germany has absorbed the monolithic Stasi mentality that poisoned the entire existence of the GDR. Modern German “culture” as expressed through the media, “art” and entertainment is rotten to the core and it’s no wonder.

    Read More
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  74. @Ivy
    Al Gore's carbon footprint impact takes many hidden figures and forms. It is the gift that keeps on giving. His life's work has a few uncomfortable truths that won't see much of the light of day. Too bad, as the disinfectant properties of sunshine are widely acknowledged.

    Gore is still searching for ManBearPig in the dark caves of his mind.

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  75. snorlax says:
    @bomag

    1992 -> 1996?
     
    Interesting gap; a highest to lowest swing. Not sure, but HW had some draft off the 1986 amnesty; HW negotiated the NAFTA deal. Clinton pushed hard for NAFTA, getting it implemented in 1994. NAFTA was probably seen as code for "free trade in people".

    Immigrants tend to have a strong pro-incumbent bias, hence all those >60% Hillary, majority-minority districts in California and South Florida that continue to return Republican congresscritters by equally strong margins, Hawaii and California turning purplish in ’04, Silicon Valley electing a Republican congressman (Tom Campbell) by big margins as late as ’98 (and if he hadn’t retired to run for Senate he’d probably have lasted up to ’06).

    That’s the simpler and better explanation for the ’92-’96 swing.

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  76. snorlax says:
    @Ron Mexico
    "Trump did better among Asians..." I believe this to be true. Anecdotal, but one of my Chinese students was explaining why Trump was preferred to Hillary and it had to do with Affirmative Action and Democrats trying to cap Asian admittance in to major universities to the benefit of blacks and Hispanics. She explained that this is how her parents felt as well. Our one and only red-dot Indian student concurred.

    My impression (based on the available data, and conversations online and in real life) is that Trump made significant improvements with recent, ESL Chinese immigrants, and with recent, ESL Indian immigrants, but tanked with all other Asian and South Asian groups (Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Pakistanis, assimilated Chinese and Indians).

    Someone posted a chart of estimates of the Asian vote in ~100 congressional districts and in virtually all of them (except a handful of wealthy suburban seats in Texas with long-term GOP incumbents) over 90%(!!!) voted Democrat. Which is comparable to blacks.

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    • Replies: @SimplePseudonymicHandle
    Same impression here.

    That said, keeping in mind the immortal words of OBL, "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, they will naturally want to side with the strong horse..."

    - if the former groups could be coaxed into saying so more loudly - a prospect which seems a lot more likely if the alt-right/WN association was doused resolutely with freezing, chilly water - then the latter groups might think twice about what are almost surely expedient associations and alliances.

    In other words: they just need to know it's not a WN horse that they'd be hitching their wagon to, and that not being so, it's actually a much stronger horse.
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  77. @Ron Mexico
    "Trump did better among Asians..." I believe this to be true. Anecdotal, but one of my Chinese students was explaining why Trump was preferred to Hillary and it had to do with Affirmative Action and Democrats trying to cap Asian admittance in to major universities to the benefit of blacks and Hispanics. She explained that this is how her parents felt as well. Our one and only red-dot Indian student concurred.

    India has its own intra-national AA and it is bitterly resented by educated professionals who are not of the specially protected classes.

    One would think that wisdom would be to seek out allies rather than foment enemies, a distinction that seems to slide by the majority of commenters on Unz.

    As for the example of the Chinese student, a quiet hallway “you might need to start saying so, more loudly, and announcing your likely sympathies for allies, more loudly, then we might get somewhere because it would waken people to opportunities for mutually beneficial coalitions” … is the kind of 1:1 communication that could add up in the long run.

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  78. snorlax says:

    An underappreciated factor, I think (besides the incumbency bump) in Bush’s relatively strong performance with Hispanics in ’04 was Mel Gibson. The Passion of the Christ was like Hispanic Star Wars. They would watch it over and over. Big bump in church attendance for a year or so. The Massachusetts Supreme Court also played a big part.

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  79. @snorlax
    My impression (based on the available data, and conversations online and in real life) is that Trump made significant improvements with recent, ESL Chinese immigrants, and with recent, ESL Indian immigrants, but tanked with all other Asian and South Asian groups (Koreans, Filipinos, Vietnamese, Pakistanis, assimilated Chinese and Indians).

    Someone posted a chart of estimates of the Asian vote in ~100 congressional districts and in virtually all of them (except a handful of wealthy suburban seats in Texas with long-term GOP incumbents) over 90%(!!!) voted Democrat. Which is comparable to blacks.

    Same impression here.

    That said, keeping in mind the immortal words of OBL, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, they will naturally want to side with the strong horse…”

    – if the former groups could be coaxed into saying so more loudly – a prospect which seems a lot more likely if the alt-right/WN association was doused resolutely with freezing, chilly water – then the latter groups might think twice about what are almost surely expedient associations and alliances.

    In other words: they just need to know it’s not a WN horse that they’d be hitching their wagon to, and that not being so, it’s actually a much stronger horse.

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  80. snorlax says:
    @Nico
    The good news is the most recent polls show the CDU/CSU and SPD on a downswing and the AfD on an upswing. Based on the trends seen in quite a few recent Western elections this should land us results in a couple of days that the talking heads in the press will no doubt deem "catastrophic."

    The dislodging of the evil cow aka Merkel is probably still some time off. But the bolts appear to be coming loose.

    Let us pray...

    Unfortunately, looking at the latest poll on Wikipedia, which is the also the best for the AfD and worst for the CDU/CSU, the percentages for the parties were, in descending order of insanity, and with equivalent US political figures for context:

    Left* (Bill Ayers) – 11%
    Greens (Al Franken) – 8%
    SPD (Hillary Clinton) – 21%
    CDU** (Ana Navarro) – 34%
    FDP (Jon Huntsman) – 9%
    AfD (Donald Trump) – 13%

    *The renamed former East German ruling party
    **Merkel’s party

    So 34% of Germans think Merkel’s been just the right amount of insane, 40% think she’s not insane enough, and 22% think she’s too insane, among whom 9% can barely be called saner than she is and 13% might actually have their heads screwed on straight.

    Germany’s a long way from saving.

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    • Agree: theo the kraut
    • Replies: @Nico
    Admittedly, a lot of the Germans I talk to off-the-streets on these questions are less than inspiring (to say the least). Though, remember, we had H.W. Bush, Clinton, Dubya and Obama for 28 years, with Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain and Romney for alternatives. Yes, we have a different electoral system and yes, Trump is hardly a panacea, but I wouldn't write Deutschland off just yet. One thing at a time, though, and right now, that thing is taking the evil cow to the butcher.
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  81. Redman says:
    @Altai
    Trump is insanely rich and is highly entertaining/extremely combative in relating to opposition. Even if he stopped all immigration from Nigeria he'd likely still have fans of his persona over there if nothing else.

    He's basically the Mohammed Ali of American politics, it speaks to a West African mentality.

    Totally agree. I was a huge Ron Paul supporter in 2008 and 2012. So naturally, I supported Paul the younger in 2016.

    Until the first GOP debate.

    Trump not only showed he could handle attacks, he seemed to enjoy it. At the same time he was smart enough to see that Rand Paul had the right message: end pointless foreign intervention, use the savings to work on rebuilding US infrastructure, ban most Muslim immigration, reduce regulation, etc. So Trump took it right out of his hands.

    As a firm anti-interventionist, I saw Paul as the guy. And assumed Jeb and Rubio would flame out as empty suits (which was basically what happened). But in the Ohio debate, Trump knew the real competition was Paul, and he crushed him with comments about his hair. Silly, but politically savvy and effective. Trump knew Paul had the intellectual, organizational and ideological chops. But he couldn’t compete with the tall, charismatic and huge personality of DJT. So he went right at him.

    Right then, I decided this is how the paleoconservative-libertarians get into the White House.

    I’m sure that many could see that “strong man” quality right away. Trump is so despised by the “people who matter” that even immigrants can respect that kind of confidence. It was and is palpable.

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  82. @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKUH6fmX0AA7t6f.jpg

    Check out Paul Ryan’s twitter cover photo.

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  83. @snorlax
    I keep my politics under wraps on social media attached to my real name, and I also periodically get friend requests from Nigerians, sometimes with notes attached. I think they're just looking for marks for the Nigerian prince scam.

    I get a lot of those, but they disappear quickly. These are real people. Maybe their strategy is to bore deep instead of casting a wide net. I like to think I have a good eye for scams but maybe you’re right.

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  84. @eah
    https://twitter.com/JackO_May/status/910816652379467776

    I ripped him some new ones, got blocked. Le sigh…

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  85. Coemgen says:
    @eah
    Did anyone ask Hillary if she believed that anyone not a criminal has the right to come here? Ask all public figures, “Don’t they have a right to come?”

    I've said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: 'Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?'

    Re "immigrant voters", how many are the type who need a non-English ballot? I don't know how many states or voting locales provide non-English voting material, but the state of Virginia has a pretty plain statement (that seems to quote directly from the Voting Rights Act):

    The Voting Rights Act mandates that a state or political subdivision must provide language assistance to voters if more than five percent of voting age citizens are members of a single language minority group and do not ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’...

    So they don't ‘‘speak or understand English adequately enough to participate in the electoral process’’, but should be able to vote anyway.

    I’ve said before that each presidential candidate ought to be asked: ‘Is the demographic heritage of America as a majority white nation worth preserving?’

    No. We do not need any more mealy-mouthed wimps as presidential candidates and please stop looking out of the elites’ Overton Window.

    What we really need is for U.S. Presidential candidates to vociferously denounce the ethnic cleansing of white Americans. They need to put forward plans to stop then reverse the damage done to the families of U.S. citizens, by the U.S. Government and its NGOs, during the past half century.

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  86. Neoconned says:
    @MarkinLA
    Stopping illegal immigration is probably the most important issue regarding the economy - and just about everything else in the country from infrastructure, schools, welfare..... So it isn't a wedge issue to me.

    You’re partially right, immigration is or should be lumped in w economic issues.

    When i said wedge issue i meant the gays, abortion, etc

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  87. eah says:
    @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKUH6fmX0AA7t6f.jpg

    Rommel was given a choice and chose suicide to protect his family after being accused of involvement in a plot against Hitler.

    #MerkelLand: #Antifa left-wingers have painted and devastated the monument of Field Marshal Rommel (Desert Fox) in Heidenheim

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    • Replies: @eah
    It's happened before -- this foto is from 2013 (and that was not the first time).

    http://www.swp.de/imgs/04/1/0/4/9/7/0/3/0/tok_12553262b01e9190a6d0a02394d1a1e4/w592_h400_x818_y497_5e76ed5f718e73d4.jpg
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  88. eah says:
    @eah
    Rommel was given a choice and chose suicide to protect his family after being accused of involvement in a plot against Hitler.

    #MerkelLand: #Antifa left-wingers have painted and devastated the monument of Field Marshal Rommel (Desert Fox) in Heidenheim

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKZfhm6VoAEVzBx.jpg

    It’s happened before — this foto is from 2013 (and that was not the first time).

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  89. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @eah
    Ein 'Lichtbomb' an Merkel: "Zu sehen ist die Szene als Lichtprojektion am Kanzleramt."

    https://assets.jungefreiheit.de/2017/09/Kanzleramt-860x360.jpg

    Why English?

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    • Replies: @eah
    I can't answer your question re the reason the message was in English -- so far I do not know the group (or person) responsible -- but many Germans understand English well enough; eg typically college-educated Germans have studied English for more than ten years, and most speak well -- also it is not uncommon for such a political statement to also target an international audience -- recently several Afghans were arrested in München for the rape of a 16 y/o girl.

    16-Jährige von drei Afghanen vergewaltigt

    Also a very high profile case is currently vor Gericht: the rape and murder of Maria L in Freiburg (by another Afghan).
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  90. Tyrion says:
    @AndrewR
    Not bizarre. Trump embodies the strongman archetype that is arguably the only viable one in Africa.

    Not bizarre. Trump embodies the strongman archetype that is arguably the only viable one in Africa.

    Not really, but I can see how you might think this given a contemporary perspective. Trump is merely not given to pathetic pandering. All healthy cultures can respect that.

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  91. Despite letting in a record number of non-white immigrants last year, the centre-right New Zealand National Party has just come out on top in a recent election against the centre-left Labour Party.

    The Nats conducted a highly effective negative campaign by branding the Labour Party as a hard core tax and spend party, with the result that provincial whites turned out in big numbers to vote against Labour (which actually tends to be a bit more conservative on immigration).

    Hence, whites are subconsciously voting for the centre-right so white tax dollars aren’t spend on minorities, while the centre-right is letting in lots of non-whites who will eventually vote centre-left. It doesn’t seem to dawn on them that there are only so many old left whites around that they can convert into right-wing liberals. If present trends continue the left will win throughout the Anglosphere because immigration and the FIRE economy ensure its percentage of the urban vote is getting stronger and stronger.

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  92. I should also add that the centre right National Party tries to get Maoris to support them through generous land handouts and business deals for Maori owned (but white run) corporations. However, the results are pathetic. This election, National probably got less than 15 percent of the Maori vote, while Labour got about 70 percent.

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    • Replies: @anon

    ...through generous land handouts and business deals for Maori owned (but white run) corporations.
     
    ''Maori run corporations'' sounds like a recipe for looting and plunder.
    The policy that the Labour Party took to the Election was to reduce the 73,000 p/a immigration figure [in a population of 4.7 million] but drastically increase the refugee intake from 10,000 p/a.

    Apart from the fact that the Maori historically heavily favour Labour, that policy [if enacted] would have looked good for the Maori, since most ''refugees'' would use NZ as a stepping stone to Australia, where opportunities are greater, and the weather much warmer.
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  93. eah says:
    @Anon
    Why English?

    I can’t answer your question re the reason the message was in English — so far I do not know the group (or person) responsible — but many Germans understand English well enough; eg typically college-educated Germans have studied English for more than ten years, and most speak well — also it is not uncommon for such a political statement to also target an international audience — recently several Afghans were arrested in München for the rape of a 16 y/o girl.

    16-Jährige von drei Afghanen vergewaltigt

    Also a very high profile case is currently vor Gericht: the rape and murder of Maria L in Freiburg (by another Afghan).

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    Nach #BTW17, the AfD is by a good margin the 2nd strongest party in eastern Germany.

    https://twitter.com/krk979/status/911992963483488256
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  94. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @unpc downunder
    I should also add that the centre right National Party tries to get Maoris to support them through generous land handouts and business deals for Maori owned (but white run) corporations. However, the results are pathetic. This election, National probably got less than 15 percent of the Maori vote, while Labour got about 70 percent.

    …through generous land handouts and business deals for Maori owned (but white run) corporations.

    ”Maori run corporations” sounds like a recipe for looting and plunder.
    The policy that the Labour Party took to the Election was to reduce the 73,000 p/a immigration figure [in a population of 4.7 million] but drastically increase the refugee intake from 10,000 p/a.

    Apart from the fact that the Maori historically heavily favour Labour, that policy [if enacted] would have looked good for the Maori, since most ”refugees” would use NZ as a stepping stone to Australia, where opportunities are greater, and the weather much warmer.

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  95. 11 Bravo says:
    @11 Bravo
    Somewhat OT - Slightly related to the immigrant vote is the Puerto Rican vote. I know they are citizens and can vote in presidential elections, but only if they reside in the states.

    I have come across comments on this blog over the past year that suggested parts of Florida have received a material amount of Puerto Ricans and has put the state in play for the democrats.

    So now that Puerto Rico is without power due to the hurricane, will this lead to more Puerto Ricans leaving the islands for the states? And if so, could this jeopardize Trump's chances in 2020?

    Wouldn't this be ironic that even if Trump does not back down on DACA, he ends up getting burned by a flood of Puerto Ricans freely moving to the states due to the extended power outages forecast for the island. Trump said he was going to visit the island to assess the damages. He probably needs to start infrastructure spending in Puerto Rico to head off a potential exodus.

    Speaking about the potential of Puerto Ricos to flee to the US in light of the hurricane, the WaPo today has an article about the potential exodus of Puerto Ricans to the mainland

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  96. @eah
    Left unsaid is how the "immigrant vote" is large enough to merit discussion -- sad -- here's what they'll be voting for next year:

    https://twitter.com/Brannon1776/status/911037052136886272

    Its also the Republican’s 2018 Platform.

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  97. eah says:
    @eah
    I can't answer your question re the reason the message was in English -- so far I do not know the group (or person) responsible -- but many Germans understand English well enough; eg typically college-educated Germans have studied English for more than ten years, and most speak well -- also it is not uncommon for such a political statement to also target an international audience -- recently several Afghans were arrested in München for the rape of a 16 y/o girl.

    16-Jährige von drei Afghanen vergewaltigt

    Also a very high profile case is currently vor Gericht: the rape and murder of Maria L in Freiburg (by another Afghan).

    Nach #BTW17, the AfD is by a good margin the 2nd strongest party in eastern Germany.

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    Merkel's Flüchtlingspolitik is tearing the country apart -- during the campaign this stupid, arrogant Sau repeatedly refused to set an upper limit -- when asked about sex assaults, she said they happened before too.

    https://twitter.com/krk979/status/911838337748672512
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  98. eah says:
    @eah
    Nach #BTW17, the AfD is by a good margin the 2nd strongest party in eastern Germany.

    https://twitter.com/krk979/status/911992963483488256

    Merkel’s Flüchtlingspolitik is tearing the country apart — during the campaign this stupid, arrogant Sau repeatedly refused to set an upper limit — when asked about sex assaults, she said they happened before too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    https://twitter.com/C_lesDeuxEglise/status/912011983289044994
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  99. eah says:
    @eah
    Merkel's Flüchtlingspolitik is tearing the country apart -- during the campaign this stupid, arrogant Sau repeatedly refused to set an upper limit -- when asked about sex assaults, she said they happened before too.

    https://twitter.com/krk979/status/911838337748672512

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKgIaJjWAAAGKQX.jpg
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  100. eah says:
    @eah
    https://twitter.com/C_lesDeuxEglise/status/912011983289044994

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    • Replies: @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhGbqkUMAAu23V.jpg
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  101. Nico says:
    @snorlax
    Unfortunately, looking at the latest poll on Wikipedia, which is the also the best for the AfD and worst for the CDU/CSU, the percentages for the parties were, in descending order of insanity, and with equivalent US political figures for context:

    Left* (Bill Ayers) - 11%
    Greens (Al Franken) - 8%
    SPD (Hillary Clinton) - 21%
    CDU** (Ana Navarro) - 34%
    FDP (Jon Huntsman) - 9%
    AfD (Donald Trump) - 13%

    *The renamed former East German ruling party
    **Merkel's party

    So 34% of Germans think Merkel's been just the right amount of insane, 40% think she's not insane enough, and 22% think she's too insane, among whom 9% can barely be called saner than she is and 13% might actually have their heads screwed on straight.

    Germany's a long way from saving.

    Admittedly, a lot of the Germans I talk to off-the-streets on these questions are less than inspiring (to say the least). Though, remember, we had H.W. Bush, Clinton, Dubya and Obama for 28 years, with Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain and Romney for alternatives. Yes, we have a different electoral system and yes, Trump is hardly a panacea, but I wouldn’t write Deutschland off just yet. One thing at a time, though, and right now, that thing is taking the evil cow to the butcher.

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  102. eah says:
    @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKgIaJjWAAAGKQX.jpg

    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
    'Karlsruhe is...when out of love for the new homeland a family is created'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhPqVDV4AA_RLA.jpg
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  103. eah says:
    @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhGbqkUMAAu23V.jpg

    ‘Karlsruhe is…when out of love for the new homeland a family is created’

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    • Replies: @eah
    Duh.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhpt3kVwAEbi0K.jpg
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  104. eah says:
    @eah
    'Karlsruhe is...when out of love for the new homeland a family is created'

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhPqVDV4AA_RLA.jpg

    Duh.

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    • Replies: @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKmIqwuUIAAkt2B.jpg
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  105. eah says:
    @eah
    Duh.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhpt3kVwAEbi0K.jpg

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    • Replies: @eah
    https://twitter.com/OnlineMagazin/status/912345832816603136
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  106. eah says:
    @eah
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKmIqwuUIAAkt2B.jpg
    Read More
    • Replies: @eah
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  107. eah says:
    @eah
    https://twitter.com/OnlineMagazin/status/912345832816603136
    Read More
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  108. @Bill Jones
    "In the first case, this issue is mostly of interest to those Hispanics who have illegal relatives — the illegals themselves can’t vote. "

    Thanks for the laugh, nice little fantasy world you've got going there.

    https://mishtalk.com/2017/08/05/california-has-11-counties-with-more-registered-voters-than-voting-age-citizens-registered-voters-144-of-egilibility/

    OK, so explain how Trump actually managed to improve upon Mitt Romney’s share of the Hispanic vote? Besides, Cali’s a safe Democratic state anyway. If 2016 proved anything, it was that running massive, superfluous popular vote totals in safe states like CA and NY does absolutely nothing for the Dems if they lose the rest of the country.

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