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I know The White Death isn’t as fun to talk about as, say, the KKK Invasion hysteria that swept the U. of Missouri yesterday, but it is a matter of life and death. Above are Andrew Gelman’s graphs showing death rate trend lines for white women (pink) and white men (blue)* from 1999 to 2013 for each year of age.
To summarize the single year of age graphs for white women:
– For each year of age from 35 to 52, the death rate is higher in 2013 than in 1999.
– Then, ages 53 to 56 are a transition zone with little change in the death rate from 1999 to 2013.
– Finally, ages 57 to 64 show lower death rates in 2013 than in 1999.
- Professor Gelman didn’t graph ages younger than 35, but a blogger named Sendil has found evidence for a sizable increase among whites 25-34 (both sexes together).
In contrast:
- Death rates for both Hispanic women and black women declined in every single age from 35 to 64.
What about men?
- There was a spike in the early 2000s in death rates for white men ages 36 to 52. Opiates? Meth? Vioxx? Viagra?
- But for death rates for 2013 v. 1999 for white men, the picture is mixed: death rates are up for 35 to 37 year olds, down for 38 to 46 year olds, flat for 47-49 year olds, up for 50-52 year olds, flat/mixed for 53 to 56 year olds, and down for 57-64 year olds.
- In contrast, death rates are lower in 2013 than in 1999 for every single age of both Hispanic men and black men.
I don’t know what implications should be taken from these patterns, but perhaps somebody can come up with some good hypotheses.
By the way, it might be useful to replot these graphs with the birth year along the horizontal axis in order to quickly eyeball-test hypotheses about generational change affecting white people when they are older. For example, the Age 35 graph could be transfigured by changing the year 2000 to 1965 (i.e., people who were 35 in 2000 were more or less born in 1965), the year 2005 to 1970 and the year 2010 to 1975. (Alternatively, the ages at which each group turned, say, 18 could be on the horizontal axis instead: 1983, 1988, and 1993.) Since white people tend to know a lot of social history about the youth culture environment facing different generations of whites, this graphical trick could be productive of generating hypotheses.
——-
* Congratulations to Professor Gelman for using intuitive colors for females and males on his graph. A lot of other graphs in recent years have been designed with the colors representing different demographic groups intentionally scrambled to confuse the reader in the name of Fighting Stereotypes.
General explanations like increasing inequality and poverty, lack of access to healthcare, cannot explain why Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks, who should be even worse affected by these causes, have seen their mortality rates drop, for all ages. Likely whatever the cause is, it is rather specific to whites.
One thing to note, however, is that the direct effects from the increases in suicide, drug and alcoholic poisonings, liver diseases etc. only explain a small part of the divergence between US whites and other countries. Even if those causes of death had not increased since 1999, US midlife mortality rates would have been basically flat (or a slight decline). And even if those comparison countries had seen similar increases (in absolute numbers per 100,000) in suicide, poisonings, liver diseases, etc. since 1999, their mortality rates (45-54) would have CONTINUED to decline.
The same applies to Hispanics (45-54). Even if suicides, poisonings, liver diseases etc. would have increased (in absolute numbers per 100,000) mortality rates for Hispanics (45-54) would have STILL declined.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223342
There’s this joke:
Q: Why do [white] men die before [white] women?
A: Because they can.
Now we need a new joke!
Why do Jewish men die before their wives?
Because they want to.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223343
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223350
Too many fatsos and too many emulating Lady Gaga and that crap.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223384
another drug taken off the market around 2007-8 was Zelnorm for IBS. I’ve been told there was enormous concern about cardiac side,effects. Not sure how widely it was prescribed.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223387
There is probably a correlation between suicide rate and cold miserable weather. I would not be surprised if Green Bay, Wisconsin for example has a higher suicide rate than Santa Monica, California.
Why would you want to kill yourself if you get to experience nice Santa Monica weather 7 days a week? Not even homeless people in Santa Monica want to kill themselves, let alone Santa Monica residents who have a roof over their head.
I would not be surprised if Scandinavian European countries have a higher suicide rate than Mediterranean European countries.
Why would you want to kill yourself if you are experiencing nice Sicilian weather 7 days a week?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223388
You have probably already seen this, but if not take a look at the graph from the Congresional Budget Office on the web linked page below of the foreign-born population in the U.S. between 1860 and 2010. In 1970, a rather low number of foreign-born individuals were in the U.S., but even more interesting it is the year when the percentage of foreign-born individuals in the U.S. was at its lowest. People who were born in the 1950s to 1970s have seen their country change radically from a nearly completely white country to what it is now, and they’ve also seen their elites largely turn against them in favor of foreign-born and/or other minority individuals.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/44134
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223389
It is difficult to overstate the extent of the cultural and social collapse that has taken place over the past twenty years among average white people. I great up in rural Idaho but left for college at 17, and then went abroad for 10 years. I return home yearly, and keep up with friends via Facebook. My hometown is not poor, but not wealthy, and it was very stable and functional. It has dramatically changed. My 35 year old friends are – to the last – not married (unless they left) and usually with several kids. They have addition issues, ‘baby momma’ issues, covered in tattoos, drenched in the most degenerate of American culture. It is depressing to see. I have several kids now and we’re in Coal Gables and I’d like to give my kids the type of upbringing that I had (do like my dad did and make some money and then return home for a slower life) but outside of the SuperZips this country has gone to shit. Whites are killing themselves because they have nothing to live for. I’d vote for anyone who would bring order to this place. Anyone.
Make America Great Again
I'm going with Robert Putnam's anomie, or some variant, but I feel lousy about it.
The tattoo "thing" among men seems to me sublimation of frustrated ambitions, but I'll defer to real sociologists to deep-think that one. Seems to me a tat detracts from a good-looking woman, and adds nothing to a less good-looking woman, so what's the point?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223396
People who live in warmer climates are always portrayed as being happier than people who live in areas with icebox weather, like this music video for example I Love L.A by Randy Newman.
I could see Steve Sailer bobbing his head while listening to this song while driving through a Los Angeles freeway.
Like Randy Newman says, Chicago during winter time is for the penguins. That would explain why Steve did not decide to call Chicago his permanent home and returned to sunny Encino, California.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223401
We’re all dying out of awareness that our time is nearly over. Betrayed by our betas who got sick of 50,000 years of s***-eating at the hands of Alpha low-empathizers (but that’s their JOB, after all, that and to do the dishes), we’ve just given up. I for one prefer to go down with a .45 in each hand and a few grenade pins in my teeth, behind piles of bodies hung up on the wire . . . but I haven’t the energy. Will just fizzle into nothingness from miscellaneous stress like the rest of you.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223410
Is this the same Andrew Gelman: http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/11/death_rates_for_white_middle_aged_americans_are_not_increasing.html
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223422
Because whites are starting from a pretty low baseline, small increases have outsized effects.
I’m looking at the state-level all-cause data for WNH, both sexes, for the ten year groups from 25 to 74 and it’s pretty clear that specific states are driving the total increase. Although as ever, the real story would be at the county level.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223435
I'm looking at the state-level all-cause data for WNH, both sexes, for the ten year groups from 25 to 74 and it's pretty clear that specific states are driving the total increase. Although as ever, the real story would be at the county level.
Are whites in the more diverse states more affected? If so could be Putnam’s anomie or loss of jobs.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223463
Relative increases and decreases are one thing and valuable to look at but how do absolute rates compare? Are Whites under 50 dying at a higher absolute rate than other races?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223464
Probably some icky social conservatish explanation.
Just guessing.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223465
Specific to whites just screams suicide, and a not insignificant number of young deaths are not chalked up that way by wish of parents I have heard on authority, and understandably. These totals are not counting killed in action right, obviously, but vets are killing themselves in such numbers that we actually hear about it occasionally. Internet, social media, voracious entertainment industry, I think probably sub-cultures are ever splitting, atomizing, skewing the moral compass, proving Durkheim right more and more–ex: I would bet a lot of suicide guys are into conspiracy corners on the web that once did not exist, especially before 9-11; easy to alienate yourself that way in a lot of ways. And since they say suicides engender suicide, well social media connections would seem to magnify that cause. Drugs: meth and dilaudid especially meth–especially. And that would be where the stratification of society makes young guys vulnerable because lessers need better peers around to be better adults. Yesterday I mentioned this but the one girl I know who May have took her life, well birth control robbed her figure in a reduction way (and I know others, that does happen for some reason) so if nothing else hormones are being made unsteady that way, though the suicide effect is maybe too particular there to mention–or maybe not. But if you were gonna make a spenglerian pronouncement, well I guess there’s less of something vague but existent to be confidant about if you’re a white american.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223479
Obesity, prescription drug use (including MAOIs), procrastinated/geriatric maternity, and an over-all decline in hospital care due to overloading of patients (who don’t pay) and cheaper, under-qualified staff- also due to the hordes of patients who don’t pay.
Hospital care has been “averaged.” So the barrio dweller who might have skipped extensive, expensive treatment years ago, now feels entitled to the very best. The white woman, who always paid, now has to deal with hospitals that completely suck.
Just a guess based on personal experience.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223494
Trump 2016
Make America Great Again
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223498
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0b5LzCOc98E
I could see Steve Sailer bobbing his head while listening to this song while driving through a Los Angeles freeway.
Like Randy Newman says, Chicago during winter time is for the penguins. That would explain why Steve did not decide to call Chicago his permanent home and returned to sunny Encino, California.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223499
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0b5LzCOc98E
I could see Steve Sailer bobbing his head while listening to this song while driving through a Los Angeles freeway.
Like Randy Newman says, Chicago during winter time is for the penguins. That would explain why Steve did not decide to call Chicago his permanent home and returned to sunny Encino, California.
I always kind of laugh about the fact that guys like Randy Newman and Huey Lewis were ‘rock stars’ given their persona – basically just your average dad in his Saturday slouch clothes.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223503
Sailer, 35 isn’t young for a woman, especially a white woman.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223535
Decline of cerebral control in lifestyle behaviors and effect of medical technology prolonging the lifespan of less viable individuals who would normally have died younger?
Supercentenarian lifespan maxed out at 1875-1997, 122+ years, the latest oldest of the old have been dying at 116 years in spite of a much larger population. Something in the water? Refined foods? Light bulbs?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223552
Q: Why do [white] men die before [white] women?
A: Because they can.
Now we need a new joke!
That’s not the joke.
Why do Jewish men die before their wives?
Because they want to.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223562
I’d be willing to bet that obesity is a pretty big causal factor in this, followed by heart failure and diabetes, in that order. Fourth would be side effects from prescription drugs, unintentional overdoses, and other iatrogenic diseases arising from the ministrations of a medical system that is not nearly as competent or professional as it is generally believed to be. Fifth would be illicit drug and alcohol poisonings; sixth, accidents (auto or otherwise). Seventh and eighth, in some order, increasing cancer rates and suicides. Ninth, possibly communicable diseases, boosted by the emergence of antibiotic resistant strains of classical maladies. To round the list out, violent crime probably accounts for a distant tenth.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223574
What is going on with Ages 35 and then Ages 40? There is a significant gap with more women dying than men in both Age bins, and seems the widest for women and men of a relatively young age. It just seems weird. That stood out to me. At 2000 both Age Bins start out relatively the same for men and women that age, and as successive Age Cohorts that Age well, “age into” that Age Bin they seem to have increased mortality by a notable level for women than men. And its weird, notable for Age 35 but not Age 36-39.
Violent Boyfriends? Bad boys gone … bad? Its the first thing I think of when I see more women than men dying at that age. Its too young for drugs. Domestic violence? Sure. Badder boy than bad boy comes around, couple split up, bad boy acts like a bad boy?
Just a theory. Hope I’m wrong. That one is hard to fix. Women love their bad boys, always have, always will.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223584
Supercentenarian lifespan maxed out at 1875-1997, 122+ years, the latest oldest of the old have been dying at 116 years in spite of a much larger population. Something in the water? Refined foods? Light bulbs?
Better recordkeeping?
When I was a kid there was a minor celebrity who was supposed to be a 130 year old ex-slave who had been born in Africa in 1840. Charlie Smith? They took him to see an Apollo launch at night. In an interview, he said he didn’t know where the rocket was going but it definitely wasn’t going to the moon. When they lit the candle on the Saturn V the network cut back to Charlie who look pretty stunned.
It was good TV, but I don’t think Charlie was really 130.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223623
Supercentenarian lifespan maxed out at 1875-1997, 122+ years, the latest oldest of the old have been dying at 116 years in spite of a much larger population. Something in the water? Refined foods? Light bulbs?
Better recordkeeping?
When I was a kid there was a minor celebrity who was supposed to be a 130 year old ex-slave who had been born in Africa in 1840. Charlie Smith? They took him to see an Apollo launch at night. In an interview, he said he didn’t know where the rocket was going but it definitely wasn’t going to the moon. When they lit the candle on the Saturn V the network cut back to Charlie who look pretty stunned.
It was good TV, but I don’t think Charlie was really 130.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223637
” . . . [D]ifficult to overstate the . . . collapse . . . .” Agree. I’ve been sort of half-arsedly following the course of the heroin overdose deaths in my area, which seem at catastrophically high rates. The local press seems to be doing a good job of covering the story. What’s startling is the number of educated suburban white-bread types, ages maybe 22-35, who seem to have never had a job at which they made a living, and who are dying of heroin overdoses. Cook, retail clerk, stuff like that. My observation is pretty much anecdote/gut instinct quality.
I’m going with Robert Putnam’s anomie, or some variant, but I feel lousy about it.
The tattoo “thing” among men seems to me sublimation of frustrated ambitions, but I’ll defer to real sociologists to deep-think that one. Seems to me a tat detracts from a good-looking woman, and adds nothing to a less good-looking woman, so what’s the point?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223665
Supercentenarian lifespan maxed out at 1875-1997, 122+ years, the latest oldest of the old have been dying at 116 years in spite of a much larger population. Something in the water? Refined foods? Light bulbs?
Strangely, five of the top thirteen have been black American women (these are all cases which meet the highest standards for evidence).
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223680
“Sailer, 35 isn’t young for a woman, especially a white woman.”
Roosh V said he never dates women who are older than 25, even though he himself is 36 years old and is a lot closer to 40 than he is to 25. I wonder if he thinks he will still attract a lot of women from the 18-25 age demographic 10 years from now when he is 46. I doubt it because he will not be one of those handsome good looking middle age men like Johnny Depp and John Stamos for example. Roosh V has a face only a mother could love so he is going to be one of those ugly middle age men. And Roosh V admitted that he is not a wealthy man, so he really has nothing to offer the 18 to 25 years of age Female demographic once he becomes an old dinosaur because he will have neither the looks nor the money to attract women who are young enough to be his daughter.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223762
I am not so sure about the “should” part. For instance, do urban minorities really have worse access to healthcare than rural whites? This is not obvious to me. And why would inequality, to the extent it has any effect on poor people at all, affect the poor whites less?
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223877
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Smith_(centenarian)
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223904
Die young, die young,
Can’t you see the writing on the wall?
@OttotheP
Better save up that energy, old boy.
I’m certain there’ll be one last go.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223905
Mental illness rate is much higher among women. That may be a contributor.
http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/prevalence/any-mental-illness-ami-among-adults.shtml
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223935
White female veterans commit suicide in dramatically higher rates than for females in general. I’ve read that it rivals the male vet rate, but that I’m not sure about. Of course the kind of women who join the armed forces, would be a select group to start with, although not all that select as far as what I’ve seen.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1223954
Maybe a lot more of this?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/11/12/pastors-wife-dies-shooting/75644914/
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1224002
I do realize this is but one data point, but you can add another one to the list of young dead white women:
http://www.dailywire.com/news/1009/white-privilege-media-ignore-black-eighth-graders-ben-shapiro
She got Section 8′d to death. In some accounts she is described as the disabled mother of one.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1224010
Exactly.
On top of that I’d guess there should be a lot of regional variation – for example more where the coal mines and heavy industry used to be.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1224252
[…] White Death, Death Rates Up among 25-34 year old Whites, Too, Why are White Women Dying Young? Death Rate Still Rising for Middle Aged White Women, Why are White Death Rates Rising? The White […]
http://www.unz.com/isteve/why-are-white-women-dying-young/#comment-1397326