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Why Africa's Fertility Rate Threatens the Globe
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From my new column in Taki’s Magazine:

The governments of Europe are confronting an epochal choice in the Mediterranean. Do they allow Europe to remain on course toward inundation by the African population explosion, inevitably turning Florence into Ferguson and Barcelona into Baltimore? …

It’s not impossible for black cultures to learn to show some self-restraint. The total fertility rate in Barbados, for instance, is only 1.68, and in poorer Jamaica it’s 2.05. …

It’s important for naïve white people to understand why black Africans aren’t terribly inclined to limit their own numbers, at least not without stringent immigration restriction and constant hardheaded prodding by Westerners to get Africans to undertake family planning.

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. Europe determined it’d only take 5,000 refugees.

    So they appear to be serious about this.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/eu-steps-up-police-and-military-operations-against-refugees-after-special-summit/5444971

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  2. You don’t use the phrase “Malthusian trap” correctly. You seem to equate it with high population density. The Malthusian trap refers to a demographic regime in which income and population are inversely related. In the Malthusian model, technological change ultimately results in more population, not higher living standards. So, prima facie, population density is a proxy for that society’s technological sophistication — the ability to enhance the carrying capacity of the land. The low population density of Africa’s past does not make it “non-Malthusian”. It simply implied a low level of technology. What changed in modern times for Africa is that mortality rates fell as a result of imported medical and sanitation technologies.

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  3. iSteveFan says:

    The Sub-Saharan African population bomb is the most obvious long-term problem facing global peace and prosperity. We’ve been lectured for decades about climate change, but the staggering fertility rates among black Africans have been largely hushed up over the last quarter of a century.

    That is really a good quote. I now use something similar to that when people I know bring up ‘climate change’.

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    • Replies: @SFG
    They can both be true, you know. The people in power suppress truths that are not useful to them and disseminate truths that are. Same for lies. (Note Steve hasn't actually said global warming isn't happening.) As Derb has said, some things are through even though the Party says so.

    I'd like to see an analysis of how global warming will actually affect America from the national security point of view. I.E., global warming has to strengthen Russia. (It's the coldest country on earth.) Is that good for us? What about these droughts hitting California?

    Also, from a larger Western-Civ point of view, these problems with African migrants are only going to increase as Africa gets too hot to live on. So, yeah, we can shoot them when they try to invade Europe...but be aware we're going to have to do a lot more of that. And, no, I don't have a problem with that.

  4. Lot says:

    I’m glad you’re willing to take on a depressing topic like this.

    I think you leaving open the chance of fertility falling on its own before the rest of Africa descends into a Sudan/Somalia/Congo hell, however, is wrong.

    It is nearly certain there will be mass famine, pandemics, and genocide in Africa’s immediate future. And there won’t be any Live Aid this time. It isn’t 1985 anymore, when there were 4 channels on most American television sets and the MSM could push a depressing story about far-away Africa on an unwilling public that would rather Keep Up With the Kardashians or watch one of the other 300 channels that don’t feature depressing foreign news, or one million websites or Netflix streams.

    Food aid won’t happen either. The problem isn’t we can’t afford the food. We can’t afford the logistics of getting it to the starving people in Africa. I also don’t see another president wanting a repeat of the Somalia operation. Remember the Afghanistan operation cost us about $1 million per soldier per year, that’s the type of cost involved with keeping people safe and fed in Africa too, and we don’t have that kind of money.

    Africa has had a brief respite from famine due to the China-driven natural resource boom. But that’s petering out as Chinese GDP growth slows and its working age population begins a permanent period of decline. Even if resource prices recover somewhat, each year the easy pickings dwindle, and the number of people who want to be fed by them grows. And of course the pandemics will keep coming as more starving people turn to bush meat, the source of both HIV and Ebola.

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    • Replies: @unpc downunder
    One thing that the apathetic elites of the West don't seem to be considering is that the US, Canada and Australia are witnessing the start of the retirement of the baby boomers, which will inevitable put a big strain on welfare, health costs, and economic growth for at least another 20 years.

    Hence, as you rightly point out, there won't be much in the kitty to help out starving Africans. Notice how the English-speaking western nations haven't really pulled out of the 2007-8 recession, which started over 7 years ago - that's because as in Europe and Japan, this recession is tied to demographics and will go on for many decades.
  5. “As a nation, our first duty is always to our own citizens, especially those who have sacrificed so much for this country.”

    Steve Sailer? No, Jeff Sessions.

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  6. OhComeOn says:

    I think shutting the borders is enough.

    If Africans want 7 kids let them have them. But don’t let ANY of those kids into your country under ANY circumstance.

    A ban on interracial marriage would help as well…and I personally know two white men married to African women in my immediate social circle…

    Rationally I know you have a point about birth control in Africa, but I do think it will backfire in some unexpected way…like…

    Caribbean blacks are rather High-IQ. The women are in complete charge of the men, and tourism is everything…meaning that black women are constantly seeing women of other cultures every single day to compare themselves to. I can’t see birth control succeeding in black run African countries that do not have similar conditions.

    Hence why I say…lock the borders.

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    • Replies: @Dr No

    If Africans want 7 kids let them have them. But don’t let ANY of those kids into your country under ANY circumstance.
     
    This is naive. These people have relatives in your country, and those relatives have votes, as will the future citizens they sponsor to immigrate. In a democracy it will be very difficult to oppose this.
  7. Uu says:

    South Africa’s blacks are a violent, lazy, and stupid bunch (surprisingly, South Africa is outperformed on standardized tests by much of the rest of Africa), but they have a fertility rate of 2.9 (down from 6.5 in the 1950′s). The apartheid government aggressively promoted contraception (while banning abortion), and despite the end of apartheid, fertility continues to decline. Why wouldn’t the same happen in the rest of Africa?

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  8. Tom_R says:

    THANKS FOR TALKING ABOUT THE AFRICAN POPULATION BOMB.

    Thank you very much for bringing up this topic, which the MSM does not want to talk about–African Population Bomb.

    As far as solutions are concerned, one good solution is for EU and USA to ban immigration.

    Population control requires impulse control, which they lack.

    As long as the Africans know they can go to USA or Europe, they will not care about controlling their population or making life better in their own country.

    The best way to help USA and Europe and Africa is to ban immigration, ban asylum, put a naval and land blockade and deport all aliens and reduce legal immigration to zero.

    Once they know there is no way out, they will sit down and make their lives better in their own country–such as reducing their birth rates, growing crops, getting education, etc.

    That is the best way to help them.

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  9. Wilkey says:

    We’re just one more recession away from the people of Europe and the United States coming to terms with the consequences of mass immigration – assuming it isn’t already too late for the USA. Europe will turn back the flood sooner than we think.

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  10. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Steve,
    I’m absolutely pessimistic that the European political class, as we know it – particular at the EU level, which is more and more acting like a federalist super-state dictatorship, will do a damned thing to effectively mitigate, let alone halt, this influx.
    Instead expect further attacks from on-high against ‘xenophobes’ and ‘populists’. Angela Merkel’s denunciation of Pegida last year really sets the tone.
    You see, despite all the noises the political class might make, the harsh, cold fact is that they actually *want* this mass influx to continue. They’ll never say that in public of course, but that’s what they secretly want and desire. Yes, I’m getting into my familiar spiel of the ‘fundamental law of western contemporary politics’ – Politicians have to prove how ‘clever’ they are by toeing the line outlined by ‘The Economist’ magazine -. Well put it this way, if western politician really and seriously wanted to stop this influx, then as *supposedly* the leaders of independent, sovereign national states with national interests to defend, then of course they could take the action, right now, to stop the influx.
    But they *choose* not too. That explains everything, and explains my pessimism.
    Another example, the British government of 1971 ‘promised’ that ‘there would be no further wide scale immigration into Britain’. Since 1971 the immigrant and immigrant descended population of the UK has increased by an order of magnitude. Now, that very last snippet, is to my mind, the clincher. Nothing will happen to effectively stop the influx. Count in it. Take it to the bank.

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  11. Whiskey says: • Website

    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.

    2. Africans will not change deeply rooted genetic patterns of fertility without considerable force. Limited land in the Caribbean is one. The only other in Africa which does not lack for land is Euro colonial force a non starter.

    3. African manpower fuels local warlords, so they will act as short term as possible.

    Florence will simply become Florence and Normandy. Europeans are incapable of spending the money and forgot ….

    4. Europe lacks enough European young men to stop the African flow.

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    • Replies: @Bob Smith of Suburbia
    "African flow" ... I think we all know what you're talking about there, Whiskey. ;)

    But hey, who wants to stop it? those white chicks LOVE LOVE LOVE the African Flow.
    , @unpc downunder
    This is rubbish. Britain and France still have pretty big navies. There is plenty of reserve manpower in Eastern Europe if needed. Europe still has a large, hi-tech arms industry (some of its stuff is probably better than what the US produces). Africans can be bribed to dob in those transporting them. Hell if things get really desperate they could get the special forces to drop contraceptives into African water supplies.

    As in the US with its mysterious technical inability to build a proper border fence, the problem is the political will to do what is necessary.

    , @Sailer has an interesting life
    I swear to god, if you agree to never post here, a significant percentage of the readers would pay you cold hard cash.

    Just in case well meaning individuals takes this moron seriously; The key to stopping boat migration is to make any aid or donations to "host" countries conditional on them stopping refugees from setting off their coasts and using their navies to interdict any boats that do.

    Please Whisky. I'm begging you. Stop posting. For my sake. For the sake of all our brains. ;__;
  12. 5371 says:

    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

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    • Replies: @Bob Arctor
    What solid reason do you have to believe that the number is "glaringly absurd?" Since the number of people in Iran aged 0-20 is far fewer than the number aged 21-40, a sub-replacement TFR for Iran seems pretty straightforward at this point.

    http://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/iran-population-pyramid-2014.gif
    , @foxy
    why do you doubt.mullahs support family planning in Iran.
    , @Hepp
    The UN gives similar or lower estimates for Iran. Why doubt it?
    , @Art Deco
    The World Bank's most recent figure is a tfr of 1.92 for Iran. Somehow, I doubt you're producing more valid figures out of your rear end.
    , @Stan Adams
    The CIA never gets anything right. Despite the agency's best efforts, AIDS and crack cocaine have killed only a small percentage of the black population.
    , @5371
    Anyone who has even the most basic knowledge of demography knows that a population which has grown at 1.4% a year between the last two censuses, and has a negative migratory balance, has a TFR higher than 1.85. If such is not your case, perhaps you should refrain from comment.
  13. @Whiskey
    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military ... other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.

    2. Africans will not change deeply rooted genetic patterns of fertility without considerable force. Limited land in the Caribbean is one. The only other in Africa which does not lack for land is Euro colonial force a non starter.

    3. African manpower fuels local warlords, so they will act as short term as possible.

    Florence will simply become Florence and Normandy. Europeans are incapable of spending the money and forgot ....

    4. Europe lacks enough European young men to stop the African flow.

    “African flow” … I think we all know what you’re talking about there, Whiskey. ;)

    But hey, who wants to stop it? those white chicks LOVE LOVE LOVE the African Flow.

    Read More
  14. @Whiskey
    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military ... other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.

    2. Africans will not change deeply rooted genetic patterns of fertility without considerable force. Limited land in the Caribbean is one. The only other in Africa which does not lack for land is Euro colonial force a non starter.

    3. African manpower fuels local warlords, so they will act as short term as possible.

    Florence will simply become Florence and Normandy. Europeans are incapable of spending the money and forgot ....

    4. Europe lacks enough European young men to stop the African flow.

    This is rubbish. Britain and France still have pretty big navies. There is plenty of reserve manpower in Eastern Europe if needed. Europe still has a large, hi-tech arms industry (some of its stuff is probably better than what the US produces). Africans can be bribed to dob in those transporting them. Hell if things get really desperate they could get the special forces to drop contraceptives into African water supplies.

    As in the US with its mysterious technical inability to build a proper border fence, the problem is the political will to do what is necessary.

    Read More
  15. TheJester says:

    My take is that culture, IQ, and reproductive strategies are related to the three climate-related Bio-Zones (Tropical, Temperate, Arctic) and the practical, evolution-related accommodations that humans must make to live in these zones.

    In tropical Africa, successful reproduction does not need a close-knit family structure and women do not need the constant territorial attention of husbands. However, in the harsh winters of the Temperate Zone, women and children cannot survive a winter without the organizational and personal attentions of males performing as husbands and fathers. The demands on social organization and intelligence are even more intense as one moves further north.

    Mass migration in the last 500 years have taken races out of their native Bio-Zones that (through evolution) determined their culture, IQ, dispositions, and reproductive strategies. The upshot is that perhaps some of these migrations have brought people into climate-adopted cultures where they cannot function. Perhaps this better explains Ferguson and Baltimore than blaming the plight of African immigrants (and their progeny) on “White male privilege”, “White micro-aggression”, and the unseen hand of racism.

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    • Replies: @Romanian
    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory... the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?
  16. @Lot
    I'm glad you're willing to take on a depressing topic like this.

    I think you leaving open the chance of fertility falling on its own before the rest of Africa descends into a Sudan/Somalia/Congo hell, however, is wrong.

    It is nearly certain there will be mass famine, pandemics, and genocide in Africa's immediate future. And there won't be any Live Aid this time. It isn't 1985 anymore, when there were 4 channels on most American television sets and the MSM could push a depressing story about far-away Africa on an unwilling public that would rather Keep Up With the Kardashians or watch one of the other 300 channels that don't feature depressing foreign news, or one million websites or Netflix streams.

    Food aid won't happen either. The problem isn't we can't afford the food. We can't afford the logistics of getting it to the starving people in Africa. I also don't see another president wanting a repeat of the Somalia operation. Remember the Afghanistan operation cost us about $1 million per soldier per year, that's the type of cost involved with keeping people safe and fed in Africa too, and we don't have that kind of money.

    Africa has had a brief respite from famine due to the China-driven natural resource boom. But that's petering out as Chinese GDP growth slows and its working age population begins a permanent period of decline. Even if resource prices recover somewhat, each year the easy pickings dwindle, and the number of people who want to be fed by them grows. And of course the pandemics will keep coming as more starving people turn to bush meat, the source of both HIV and Ebola.

    One thing that the apathetic elites of the West don’t seem to be considering is that the US, Canada and Australia are witnessing the start of the retirement of the baby boomers, which will inevitable put a big strain on welfare, health costs, and economic growth for at least another 20 years.

    Hence, as you rightly point out, there won’t be much in the kitty to help out starving Africans. Notice how the English-speaking western nations haven’t really pulled out of the 2007-8 recession, which started over 7 years ago – that’s because as in Europe and Japan, this recession is tied to demographics and will go on for many decades.

    Read More
  17. @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    What solid reason do you have to believe that the number is “glaringly absurd?” Since the number of people in Iran aged 0-20 is far fewer than the number aged 21-40, a sub-replacement TFR for Iran seems pretty straightforward at this point.

    Read More
  18. @Whiskey
    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military ... other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.

    2. Africans will not change deeply rooted genetic patterns of fertility without considerable force. Limited land in the Caribbean is one. The only other in Africa which does not lack for land is Euro colonial force a non starter.

    3. African manpower fuels local warlords, so they will act as short term as possible.

    Florence will simply become Florence and Normandy. Europeans are incapable of spending the money and forgot ....

    4. Europe lacks enough European young men to stop the African flow.

    I swear to god, if you agree to never post here, a significant percentage of the readers would pay you cold hard cash.

    Just in case well meaning individuals takes this moron seriously; The key to stopping boat migration is to make any aid or donations to “host” countries conditional on them stopping refugees from setting off their coasts and using their navies to interdict any boats that do.

    Please Whisky. I’m begging you. Stop posting. For my sake. For the sake of all our brains. ;__;

    Read More
  19. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Steve,
    It’s a glaring error to focus so hard on Africa, and to ignore the Indian subcontinent, which I am fairly convinced presents by far a bigger danger in terms of demographic and racial swamping aka ‘immigration’ than Africa does or ever will do.
    The subcontinent’s population is colossal as it stands now.
    Any honest non-indoctrinated native white Briton or Canadian will fully be able to warn you of the dire and extreme danger posed by subcontinental immigration. Mark my words. Subcon immigration into the USA, which really has only now just begun in earnest, will make Mexican immigration look like the proverbial vicarage tea-party in comparison.

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    • Replies: @unam
    How so? south asian immigration is like 150,000 per year.
  20. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    By the year 2050, it is certain that both France and the UK will be majority black and brown nations.
    Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium etc will follow soon afterwards.
    One consequence of this will be permanent left-wing, Marxist governments in those nations, since the left, unafraid of any opposition, will show its true colors.
    Of course, by that time true ‘open borders’ will be imposed, so any further discussion of Europe will be ‘academic’ as the saying goes.

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  21. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    I am pretty certain that Africans give zero consideration to European immigration policy, or anything else, when they reproduce like rabbits.

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  22. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

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    • Replies: @CCR
    Yeah, we are. I'll go further and say I'm for a world-wide one-child policy.
    , @Anonymous
    "The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children"

    When I was growing up, the public schools I attended taught us that there was a worldwide overpopulation problem and that, as such, we should not have many children. I don't remember hearing any complaints back then that such an idea was racist. I would guess that these teachings are partially responsible for the low birth rate among white people in the U.S. today. In contrast, I guess that Africans weren't taught the same lessons in their schools.
    , @annamaria
    This is Africans' decisions to have as many babies as they want. And the responsibility for the babies should be taken by the the Africans themselves. The point of the discussion is the Africans' attempts to solve the problem of their excessive fertility for the expense of European countries.
    As for the Catholic Church with its rabidly anti-contraception policies, the Church should be demanded to support financially any surplus of human beings in Africa, which was caused by Church refusal to let the contraceptives's flow there
    , @SFG
    You must be new here.
    , @George Taylor
    Spew some chunks Guy. Yes, yes and yes.
  23. foxy says:
    @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    why do you doubt.mullahs support family planning in Iran.

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    • Replies: @5371
    That is true, and Iranian fertility has indeed declined very considerably. Just not to that level.
  24. thits article puts it all together. It could be well used as a standard for argumentation about this subject. My personal list of things endangering human life and civilization in 21. century
    1) high fertility in subsaharan Africa
    2) environmental pollution
    3) the risk of a nuclear war

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    • Replies: @CCR
    All out nuclear war and the world is STILL going to be over-populated.
  25. I do not think that the 4 billion people in subsaharaan Africa by 2100 projection is a good one – while of course the best one to take in discussions, because it has the UN label on it. Some number between 7 and 12 billion is probably more realistic

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  26. Hepp says:
    @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    The UN gives similar or lower estimates for Iran. Why doubt it?

    Read More
  27. Rob McX says:

    The fundamental problem lies in treating it as a “humanitarian crisis”. It’s not. What we’re seeing is an invasion. Many of the immigrants don’t see it that way, of course – they just see getting into Europe as a matter of individual salvation (though some of them – especially Muslims – openly gloat about colonising Europe). But invasion it is. And, as invasions go, far from being dangerous or hopeless, it’s spectacularly successful for the invaders. As Andrew Joyce points out here, the death rate from drowning among the boat people is less than 1.5 per cent. Considering the day-to-day hazards of living in Africa, setting out for Europe probably increases their chance of survival.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Any group of invaders, throughout history, first and foremost regarded invading another people's land as a means to ensure their *own* survival, and thus by their own moral calculus, put in the highest value on it.
    Of course, the invaded, well up until present with the shitheaded, 'Economist' led political zeitgeist, didn't quite see things that way.
  28. Art Deco says: • Website
    @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    The World Bank’s most recent figure is a tfr of 1.92 for Iran. Somehow, I doubt you’re producing more valid figures out of your rear end.

    Read More
  29. Mr. Anon says:

    “Whiskey says:

    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.”

    Australia’s defence spending as a fraction of GDP? No more than 2%.

    Military Expenditure as a % of GDP

    And, given that Australia is an island, the problem of repelling boarders is exactly analagous.

    Do you even care whether what you say is right or not?

    But, no worries, your always implied message of “Die, european man, die!” came through loud and clear.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous

    ...To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min."
    ...
    Military Expenditure as a % of GDP
    ...
    But, no worries, your always implied message of “Die, european man, die!” came through loud and clear.

     

    I recall reading news items about French and NATO helicopters trapping and slaughtering Libyan military during Qaddafi's fight against the Western-backed "rebels". Well, while those pilots were losing their immortals souls they were also facilitating the destruction of their progeny. How do say "White girl bleed a lot" in French or Dutch or Italian or Swedish or Norwegian...?
    , @Whiskey
    No, that is not my message. You confuse "is" with ought. Typical.

    Australia has a favorable geography: rough seas, nasty shoals, as a practical matter landings on the northern coast. It is very much a longer journey from say, Pakistan or India where most refugees set out than from Indonesia which has a stable government that is aligned roughly with Australia.

    Moreover Australia gets more bang for its buck in military spending -- mostly on ships and men to man them as fear of both China and Indonesia, big and ambitious neighbors and trading partners has generated a minimum floor of spending.

    Not even Philip II of Spain could get a handle on North African piracy and constant raids. That the most Hapsburg of Emperors and Kings could not stop raids on Spain itself ought to tell you something. There was too much money to be made with Islamic piracy/jihad, and not even Spain had the resources to deal with it. Not until technology shifted the winds did Europeans succeed in stopping North African Muslim piracy.

    Since there is enormous amounts of money to be made shuffling Africans north I expect it to continue -- I pessimistically see no ability of Europeans to give up a tiny slice of today's welfare to prevent tomorrow from looking like Lagos on the Tiber, or Thames for that matter.

    As for Steve's desire to limit African fertility in favor of humanistic outcomes, I agree but its not possible. The experience of China and India's efforts on limiting fertility is instructive. It caused enormous social stress for China, with its Emperor system, to limit fertility and the tools included:

    *Mass forced sterilizations.
    *Forced abortions.
    *Prison and execution for those evading limits.

    India saw mass forced sterilization, with the outcome of revolts. And this is Steve's weakness -- India's fertility limits FAILED because ethnic/racial peoples wanted to have more people than rivals. There was no one giant Han Chinese race where limiting your population meant you did not get crushed by racial/ethnic/religious rivals.

    As a practical, non utopian manner, limiting fertility in Africa means massive force, including forced mass sterilization and killing and imprisoning lots of people to enforce this against a population convinced with good reason that their only defense against ethnic/racial rivals is to have MORE PEOPLE. Europeans just don't have the stomach for it.

    Historically dropping TFR includes: improved status of women, improved education of women, urbanization, industrialization, strong central governments that provide retirement income, and mass consumerism. Ask yourself realistically how many factors besides urbanization in a few countries like Nigeria, will Africa have?

    This just in -- Africans are not Persians, nor Arabs, nor Japanese. There is a reason that they alone have not seen big drops in TFR. Its is as Steve says GENETIC and peoples don't change their hard-wired genetic tendencies on a dime.

    At this point to save Europe its better to root for a Putin* takeover. Not that the man is anything other than a crook and a thug; but at least he'd defend his Florence vacation home from half of Africa.

    *Europe's elites are sanguine about mass African immigration as they don't believe they will be turned out; they for one welcome their new African overlords. They understand that Putin's system means they'll be turned out in favor of Putin's lieutenants, that's how Putin's system works.
  30. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Mr. Anon
    "Whiskey says:

    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min."

    Australia's defence spending as a fraction of GDP? No more than 2%.

    Military Expenditure as a % of GDP

    And, given that Australia is an island, the problem of repelling boarders is exactly analagous.

    Do you even care whether what you say is right or not?

    But, no worries, your always implied message of "Die, european man, die!" came through loud and clear.

    …To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min.”

    Military Expenditure as a % of GDP

    But, no worries, your always implied message of “Die, european man, die!” came through loud and clear.

    I recall reading news items about French and NATO helicopters trapping and slaughtering Libyan military during Qaddafi’s fight against the Western-backed “rebels”. Well, while those pilots were losing their immortals souls they were also facilitating the destruction of their progeny. How do say “White girl bleed a lot” in French or Dutch or Italian or Swedish or Norwegian…?

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  31. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Rob McX
    The fundamental problem lies in treating it as a "humanitarian crisis". It's not. What we're seeing is an invasion. Many of the immigrants don't see it that way, of course - they just see getting into Europe as a matter of individual salvation (though some of them - especially Muslims - openly gloat about colonising Europe). But invasion it is. And, as invasions go, far from being dangerous or hopeless, it's spectacularly successful for the invaders. As Andrew Joyce points out here, the death rate from drowning among the boat people is less than 1.5 per cent. Considering the day-to-day hazards of living in Africa, setting out for Europe probably increases their chance of survival.

    Any group of invaders, throughout history, first and foremost regarded invading another people’s land as a means to ensure their *own* survival, and thus by their own moral calculus, put in the highest value on it.
    Of course, the invaded, well up until present with the shitheaded, ‘Economist’ led political zeitgeist, didn’t quite see things that way.

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  32. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    If the Europeans have the will then all else will follow. If not then they’ll dither as though on on deck of the Titanic. If they make a decision to make a decision and finally decide to halt it then using their sea power to interdict and turn back the invaders shouldn’t be terribly difficult. Along with that two things are needed to deal with those who’ve evaded security and have landed:
    1) Set up a penal colony on an island. They can escape out back to their point of origin or elsewhere but not to Europe.
    2) Deputize two people on each block in urban areas, and a number in outlying areas, to locate the illegals hiding in their area. After all, they’re identifiable on sight. Give out bounties for each one they bring in. Issue billy clubs, handcuffs, pepper spray, machetes to the deputies. Give out rewards for tips. Identify locals in cahoots with the people smuggling racket.
    It can’t just be a top-down police operation. The citizens have to be involved at the grassroots level. If they take the initiative they could sweep their countries clean by the end of this very year.

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  33. I must confess I am in dire need of a struggle session to purge myself of white privilege and I am most guilty of sterotyping.

    I found Black Mischief in a readable form on the internet.

    http://www.general-ebooks.com/read/90111712

    And I fear I tend to completely believe and trust the observations of backwardness and inferiority that Waugh ascribes to the characters in the book. And even worse I tend to see the same tendencies and behaviors when I watch the news coverage of Baltimore, that of unrestrained barbarism, and not that of a controlled political movement that has evolved beyond mere non-violence.

    I feel so ashamed at myself for making the connection.

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  34. CCR says:
    @Anonymous
    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

    Yeah, we are. I’ll go further and say I’m for a world-wide one-child policy.

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  35. CCR says:
    @Erik Sieven
    thits article puts it all together. It could be well used as a standard for argumentation about this subject. My personal list of things endangering human life and civilization in 21. century
    1) high fertility in subsaharan Africa
    2) environmental pollution
    3) the risk of a nuclear war

    All out nuclear war and the world is STILL going to be over-populated.

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  36. Ok, my favorite part so far from Black Mischief

    There has been sort of a civil war or attempted takeover which failed. The Emperor Seth is speaking with his mercenary General Conally. He inquires after the fate leader of the failed takeover.

    “And the usurper Seyid, did he surrender?”

    “Yes, he surrendered all right. But, look here, Seth, I hope you aren’t going to mind about this, but you see how it was, well, you see Seyid surrendered and…”

    “You don’t mean you’ve let him escape?”

    “Oh, no, nothing like that, but the fact is, he surrendered to a party of Wanda… and, well, you know what the Wanda are.” (they are anthropophagous (waugh’s word)-feeding on human flesh. I guess cannibal was too sensitive and racist)

    “You mean…”

    “Yes, I’m afraid so. I wouldn’t have had it happen for anything. I didn’t hear about it until afterwards.”

    “They should not have eaten him—after all he was my father… It is so… so barbarous.”

    “I knew you’d feel that way about it, Seth, and I’m sorry. I gave the headmen twelve hours in the tank for it.” (an armored tank that seth had placed so much importance is acquiring was useless in the African sun. After 5 hours it was too hot for use. It became an effective means of punishment though. The men were terrified of being confined to it, so 12 hours for eating someone was a severe punishment)

    “I am afraid that as yet the Wanda are totally out of touch with modern thought. They need education. We must start some schools and a university for them when we get things straight.”

    “That’s it, Seth, you can’t blame them. It’s want of education. That’s all it is.”

    “We might start them on Montessori methods,”

    And I agree. What Baltimore needs is more Montessori. That’ll solve everything.

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  37. Romanian says:
    @TheJester
    My take is that culture, IQ, and reproductive strategies are related to the three climate-related Bio-Zones (Tropical, Temperate, Arctic) and the practical, evolution-related accommodations that humans must make to live in these zones.

    In tropical Africa, successful reproduction does not need a close-knit family structure and women do not need the constant territorial attention of husbands. However, in the harsh winters of the Temperate Zone, women and children cannot survive a winter without the organizational and personal attentions of males performing as husbands and fathers. The demands on social organization and intelligence are even more intense as one moves further north.

    Mass migration in the last 500 years have taken races out of their native Bio-Zones that (through evolution) determined their culture, IQ, dispositions, and reproductive strategies. The upshot is that perhaps some of these migrations have brought people into climate-adopted cultures where they cannot function. Perhaps this better explains Ferguson and Baltimore than blaming the plight of African immigrants (and their progeny) on "White male privilege", "White micro-aggression", and the unseen hand of racism.

    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory… the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

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    • Replies: @AnAnon
    People with rickets aren't going to be rioting.
    , @TheJester
    I am a committed to socio-biology (a.k.a. evolution) as an explanation for much of our human predicament ... but I have not run across that before. It may be one of many "side shows" driving human behavior that no one pays attention to. Do you have any sources/references you can provide? Nonetheless, the thesis is the same: That humans are evolutionarily tuned to specific environments/Bios-Zones and may not do as well when they migrate out of those environments ... until evolution catches up.
    , @Stan Adams
    Murder rates in sun-drenched Africa are sky-high. Blacks are aggressive and violent anywhere and everywhere.
    , @Laban Tall
    "This leads to aggressiveness and other ills"

    In the UK, it's led to an increase in rickets, because people from low latitudes (i.e. non-white) have skin evolved to synthesise vitamin D from strong sunlight, and can't synthesise enough at 60 degrees N (it doesn't help either that some cultures are big on covering up any exposed female skin).

    Naturally the Guardian has interpreted the increase as "the return of Victorian disease" caused by the evil Austerity Government.

    There's also an effect in native Brits - increased use of sunscreen, and more children indoors glued to screens.

    https://www.jfhc.co.uk/Rickets_concerns_over_the_worldwide_increase_20790.aspx
  38. AnAnon says:
    @Romanian
    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory... the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

    People with rickets aren’t going to be rioting.

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  39. unam says:
    @Anonymous
    Steve,
    It's a glaring error to focus so hard on Africa, and to ignore the Indian subcontinent, which I am fairly convinced presents by far a bigger danger in terms of demographic and racial swamping aka 'immigration' than Africa does or ever will do.
    The subcontinent's population is colossal as it stands now.
    Any honest non-indoctrinated native white Briton or Canadian will fully be able to warn you of the dire and extreme danger posed by subcontinental immigration. Mark my words. Subcon immigration into the USA, which really has only now just begun in earnest, will make Mexican immigration look like the proverbial vicarage tea-party in comparison.

    How so? south asian immigration is like 150,000 per year.

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  40. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Anonymous
    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

    “The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children”

    When I was growing up, the public schools I attended taught us that there was a worldwide overpopulation problem and that, as such, we should not have many children. I don’t remember hearing any complaints back then that such an idea was racist. I would guess that these teachings are partially responsible for the low birth rate among white people in the U.S. today. In contrast, I guess that Africans weren’t taught the same lessons in their schools.

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  41. TheJester says:
    @Romanian
    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory... the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

    I am a committed to socio-biology (a.k.a. evolution) as an explanation for much of our human predicament … but I have not run across that before. It may be one of many “side shows” driving human behavior that no one pays attention to. Do you have any sources/references you can provide? Nonetheless, the thesis is the same: That humans are evolutionarily tuned to specific environments/Bios-Zones and may not do as well when they migrate out of those environments … until evolution catches up.

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  42. […] see Steve Sailer has gotten in on the act this week. His angle of entry is, as always, immigration. There are a billion Africans in their huts right […]

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  43. Marissa says:

    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory… the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

    Then why are they so violent in the Congo?

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  44. SFG says:
    @iSteveFan

    The Sub-Saharan African population bomb is the most obvious long-term problem facing global peace and prosperity. We’ve been lectured for decades about climate change, but the staggering fertility rates among black Africans have been largely hushed up over the last quarter of a century.
     
    That is really a good quote. I now use something similar to that when people I know bring up 'climate change'.

    They can both be true, you know. The people in power suppress truths that are not useful to them and disseminate truths that are. Same for lies. (Note Steve hasn’t actually said global warming isn’t happening.) As Derb has said, some things are through even though the Party says so.

    I’d like to see an analysis of how global warming will actually affect America from the national security point of view. I.E., global warming has to strengthen Russia. (It’s the coldest country on earth.) Is that good for us? What about these droughts hitting California?

    Also, from a larger Western-Civ point of view, these problems with African migrants are only going to increase as Africa gets too hot to live on. So, yeah, we can shoot them when they try to invade Europe…but be aware we’re going to have to do a lot more of that. And, no, I don’t have a problem with that.

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    • Replies: @iSteveFan
    I am not arguing whether or not global warming is true. I am only pointing out to people that the global South population bomb is a far more pressing problem that will affect them in their lifetime, and is something that could be mitigated with human intervention. Climate change has always occurred, with our without man, and human intervention won't change that. Yet many people fret over climate change and don't even realize the population threat that is about to be unloaded on them.
  45. Merema says:

    Before a tsunami of African migrants get to Europe, a tsunami of Africans has to FIRST hit North Africa, and that is simply not going to happen- the Arabs and Berbers will not allow it. In their history, and they have a very long one, they have never allowed a mass migration of sub-sahara Africans into their lands, and why would they start now? .

    There is no threat to the globe from an African population explosion as Africans will not be allowed in in large enough numbers by ANY non- black country-no matter how liberal, including Europe.
    Non blacks, whether white, yellow or brown have a quite understanding among themselves, and share real fear of a black planet. They can only tolerate just a small black presence in their societies-this is a cold fact and a non-brainer.

    Google the story of how many hundreds of thousands of East Africans Saudi Arabia violently deported in a matter of DAYS. No one said a peep. Israel deports Africans all the time. India has lynched a few here and there.

    The population explosion is a threat to Africans alone, as it leads to further degradation of the already low quality of life there.

    Africans are very open to planned parenthood when it is available, but that requires, at least for now, the presence of a working, somewhat competent governments. TFR has gone down drastically in countries such as Zimbabwe, Ghana, Eritrea, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa thanks to their governments and NGOs.

    What is needed is a new type of extremely cheap, simple birth control pill that the African masses can obtain for themselves independently on the market without the need of NGOs or functioning state agents.

    Whites will probably end up as a minuscule portion of the global population in the near future, but that is, can not be The End. Sometime in the future, probably not in our life time, there could be a paradigm shift in the how the European mind perceives marriage and birthing, allowing for a larger global European population. Who would have thought that sharia based Iran and S. Arabia would have such incredibly low birth rates in one life time? Anything is possible.

    The question right now should be, what went wrong with European folk, here and there, and when did it happen, to bring about such a near catastrophic population collapse?

    As for America, well, the force of history, or karma or nature seems to be at work it seems, seeing that the population landscape is shifting, turning Metzito, indigenous Indian.

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    • Replies: @Anonymous
    No. You've got it absolutely and completely wrong.

    The north Africans can and will allow black African transit through their nations as long as there is profit in it for themselves.
    Secondly, the powers that run the EU show again and again that they value and treasure the lives and well being of subSaharan African invaders higher than they do the lives and well being of indigenous white Europeans.
  46. @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    The CIA never gets anything right. Despite the agency’s best efforts, AIDS and crack cocaine have killed only a small percentage of the black population.

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  47. Victor says:

    WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY—AND THE ENEMY IS US.

    Thanks for the great article. The population bomb will lead to the immigration bomb.

    Immigration is the death knell of white nations.

    But the main problem is white liberalism. The white libs in Massachusetts, and Minnesota and Washington, etc. keep voting for Democrats and liberals such as Reid, Pelosi, Obama who want to bring more 3rd world aliens, as these more poor and stupid “refuse” and huddled masses will vote for Democrats.

    The same is true in Europe. The left-wing alienist parties in Sweden and UK keep winning elections and the patriotic parties (such as Sweden Democrats, BNP) are often behind.

    Why? Why are whites so stupid to vote for alienist parties like Democrats in USA, Labor in UK, Social Democrats in Sweden who are destorying our nations with 3rd world immigration?

    Why, oh why, are they so deranged to dig their own grave? This is despite the fact that 90% of white people in USA/EU are AGAINST immigration but they still do not vote for BNP or Swedish Democrats.

    Another option is people must amend the constitution to allow binding superseding national referenda so they can ban immigration themselves. Eg. Ncid.us.

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  48. Writing in the early 50s, John Gunther (_Inside Africa_) said that demography doomed the long-term prospects of white settlement and white rule in Kenya and elsewhere in Africa. He had a lot of good to say about British and French colonial rule, and he questioned the natives’ prospects of successfully governing themselves (pointing to the fact that Liberia and Ethiopia, the only black-ruled countries at the time, were the poorest on the continent).

    By the 70s you heard that demography made white rule in South Africa unsustainable.

    Now we’re hearing the same thing about Europe.

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  49. @Romanian
    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory... the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

    Murder rates in sun-drenched Africa are sky-high. Blacks are aggressive and violent anywhere and everywhere.

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  50. Whiskey says: • Website
    @Mr. Anon
    "Whiskey says:

    Steve three criticisms.

    1. African mass migration is different in geography than Australias. To stop it Europe needs a robust Navy, Air Force, and Army to occupy the coastal towns of North Africa. There is no chance Europe will divert Welfare State money to the military … other than Poland no Nato nation in Europe even spends the 2% min."

    Australia's defence spending as a fraction of GDP? No more than 2%.

    Military Expenditure as a % of GDP

    And, given that Australia is an island, the problem of repelling boarders is exactly analagous.

    Do you even care whether what you say is right or not?

    But, no worries, your always implied message of "Die, european man, die!" came through loud and clear.

    No, that is not my message. You confuse “is” with ought. Typical.

    Australia has a favorable geography: rough seas, nasty shoals, as a practical matter landings on the northern coast. It is very much a longer journey from say, Pakistan or India where most refugees set out than from Indonesia which has a stable government that is aligned roughly with Australia.

    Moreover Australia gets more bang for its buck in military spending — mostly on ships and men to man them as fear of both China and Indonesia, big and ambitious neighbors and trading partners has generated a minimum floor of spending.

    Not even Philip II of Spain could get a handle on North African piracy and constant raids. That the most Hapsburg of Emperors and Kings could not stop raids on Spain itself ought to tell you something. There was too much money to be made with Islamic piracy/jihad, and not even Spain had the resources to deal with it. Not until technology shifted the winds did Europeans succeed in stopping North African Muslim piracy.

    Since there is enormous amounts of money to be made shuffling Africans north I expect it to continue — I pessimistically see no ability of Europeans to give up a tiny slice of today’s welfare to prevent tomorrow from looking like Lagos on the Tiber, or Thames for that matter.

    As for Steve’s desire to limit African fertility in favor of humanistic outcomes, I agree but its not possible. The experience of China and India’s efforts on limiting fertility is instructive. It caused enormous social stress for China, with its Emperor system, to limit fertility and the tools included:

    *Mass forced sterilizations.
    *Forced abortions.
    *Prison and execution for those evading limits.

    India saw mass forced sterilization, with the outcome of revolts. And this is Steve’s weakness — India’s fertility limits FAILED because ethnic/racial peoples wanted to have more people than rivals. There was no one giant Han Chinese race where limiting your population meant you did not get crushed by racial/ethnic/religious rivals.

    As a practical, non utopian manner, limiting fertility in Africa means massive force, including forced mass sterilization and killing and imprisoning lots of people to enforce this against a population convinced with good reason that their only defense against ethnic/racial rivals is to have MORE PEOPLE. Europeans just don’t have the stomach for it.

    Historically dropping TFR includes: improved status of women, improved education of women, urbanization, industrialization, strong central governments that provide retirement income, and mass consumerism. Ask yourself realistically how many factors besides urbanization in a few countries like Nigeria, will Africa have?

    This just in — Africans are not Persians, nor Arabs, nor Japanese. There is a reason that they alone have not seen big drops in TFR. Its is as Steve says GENETIC and peoples don’t change their hard-wired genetic tendencies on a dime.

    At this point to save Europe its better to root for a Putin* takeover. Not that the man is anything other than a crook and a thug; but at least he’d defend his Florence vacation home from half of Africa.

    *Europe’s elites are sanguine about mass African immigration as they don’t believe they will be turned out; they for one welcome their new African overlords. They understand that Putin’s system means they’ll be turned out in favor of Putin’s lieutenants, that’s how Putin’s system works.

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  51. annamaria says:
    @Anonymous
    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

    This is Africans’ decisions to have as many babies as they want. And the responsibility for the babies should be taken by the the Africans themselves. The point of the discussion is the Africans’ attempts to solve the problem of their excessive fertility for the expense of European countries.
    As for the Catholic Church with its rabidly anti-contraception policies, the Church should be demanded to support financially any surplus of human beings in Africa, which was caused by Church refusal to let the contraceptives’s flow there

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  52. Hh says:

    South African blacks are as savage, stupid and sex-crazed as any. They are so dumb that they underperform most of the world, including the rest of Africa in standardised tests. Yet they have a fertility rate of 2.9 and falling. The population control policies of the apartheid government ended but there was no rebound in fertility, instead it continued falling.

    This leads me to believe that you may be overstating the risk of an African population explosion. All it will take is a bit of education and the realization that most of your offspring will make it to adulthood.

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  53. iSteveFan says:
    @SFG
    They can both be true, you know. The people in power suppress truths that are not useful to them and disseminate truths that are. Same for lies. (Note Steve hasn't actually said global warming isn't happening.) As Derb has said, some things are through even though the Party says so.

    I'd like to see an analysis of how global warming will actually affect America from the national security point of view. I.E., global warming has to strengthen Russia. (It's the coldest country on earth.) Is that good for us? What about these droughts hitting California?

    Also, from a larger Western-Civ point of view, these problems with African migrants are only going to increase as Africa gets too hot to live on. So, yeah, we can shoot them when they try to invade Europe...but be aware we're going to have to do a lot more of that. And, no, I don't have a problem with that.

    I am not arguing whether or not global warming is true. I am only pointing out to people that the global South population bomb is a far more pressing problem that will affect them in their lifetime, and is something that could be mitigated with human intervention. Climate change has always occurred, with our without man, and human intervention won’t change that. Yet many people fret over climate change and don’t even realize the population threat that is about to be unloaded on them.

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  54. 5371 says:
    @5371
    Let me point out once again that the CIA is a disastrous source for these demographic figures, with the quoted TFR of 1.85 for Iran being especially and glaringly absurd.

    Anyone who has even the most basic knowledge of demography knows that a population which has grown at 1.4% a year between the last two censuses, and has a negative migratory balance, has a TFR higher than 1.85. If such is not your case, perhaps you should refrain from comment.

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    • Replies: @Bob Arctor
    You certainly are arrogant for someone who knows practically nothing about demography. Try reading this article to get a feel for how a nation can have sub-replacement TFR but still have high population growth.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    In summary: A country can have fewer children being born than people of childbearing age (i.e. sub-replacement TFR) but still have far more children being born than elderly people who are dying off. (i.e. positive population growth)

    This is called the "pig in the python" or "demographic momentum" phenomenon in demography.
    , @AnotherDad
    5371 -- I'm afraid you're the one who is absent a "basic knowledge of demography".

    All you need to grow 1.4% a year is for births to exceed deaths by a number that is 1.4% of the population. That does not require the current TFR to be anything in particular, including above replacement.

    In the case of Iran, they had a huge population baby boom after the revolution. There are a *lot* of Iranians in the 20-35 baby creating bracket. However, those folks are creating far fewer babies than their own numbers. The reason the population is still growing strongly is because those fewer babies (than parents) are still way, way more numerous than the much smaller oldster cohorts that are dying off. (BTW, Steve has pointed out this time delay effect numerous times.)

    Observe the population pyramid chart here:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran

    Even if you do not believe these population figures, they are easily sufficient to create the sub-replacement fertility, but high population growth rate that you seem to think is some sort of mathematical quandary.
  55. Laban Tall says: • Website
    @Romanian
    I read somewhere around here an interesting theory... the black population at temperate latitudes are suffering from lack of Vitamin D because of low levels of sunlight throughout part of the year and the need to wear extensive clothing a large part of the year. This leads to aggressiveness and other ills. Is there any truth to it?

    “This leads to aggressiveness and other ills”

    In the UK, it’s led to an increase in rickets, because people from low latitudes (i.e. non-white) have skin evolved to synthesise vitamin D from strong sunlight, and can’t synthesise enough at 60 degrees N (it doesn’t help either that some cultures are big on covering up any exposed female skin).

    Naturally the Guardian has interpreted the increase as “the return of Victorian disease” caused by the evil Austerity Government.

    There’s also an effect in native Brits – increased use of sunscreen, and more children indoors glued to screens.

    https://www.jfhc.co.uk/Rickets_concerns_over_the_worldwide_increase_20790.aspx

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  56. Dr No says:
    @OhComeOn
    I think shutting the borders is enough.

    If Africans want 7 kids let them have them. But don't let ANY of those kids into your country under ANY circumstance.

    A ban on interracial marriage would help as well...and I personally know two white men married to African women in my immediate social circle...

    Rationally I know you have a point about birth control in Africa, but I do think it will backfire in some unexpected way...like...

    Caribbean blacks are rather High-IQ. The women are in complete charge of the men, and tourism is everything...meaning that black women are constantly seeing women of other cultures every single day to compare themselves to. I can't see birth control succeeding in black run African countries that do not have similar conditions.

    Hence why I say...lock the borders.

    If Africans want 7 kids let them have them. But don’t let ANY of those kids into your country under ANY circumstance.

    This is naive. These people have relatives in your country, and those relatives have votes, as will the future citizens they sponsor to immigrate. In a democracy it will be very difficult to oppose this.

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    • Replies: @Sean
    Their relatives will be your relatives, rely on it. The immigrants are mainly male and they are from polygamous cultures which have selected for ...

    Zemmour lamented that the “white proletariat” is "helpless before the 'ostentatious virility of their black and Arab competitors seducing numerous young white women.'"
     
  57. SFG says:
    @Anonymous
    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

    You must be new here.

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  58. Sean says:
    @Dr No

    If Africans want 7 kids let them have them. But don’t let ANY of those kids into your country under ANY circumstance.
     
    This is naive. These people have relatives in your country, and those relatives have votes, as will the future citizens they sponsor to immigrate. In a democracy it will be very difficult to oppose this.

    Their relatives will be your relatives, rely on it. The immigrants are mainly male and they are from polygamous cultures which have selected for …

    Zemmour lamented that the “white proletariat” is “helpless before the ‘ostentatious virility of their black and Arab competitors seducing numerous young white women.’”

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    • Replies: @Dew
    The average European male is making it too easy for the immigrant men to seduce/rape white women. If the western man want to piss off immigrant men, he should be seducing immigrant women. Those girls dream of it, believe it or not.

    Take it a step further only allow in immigrant women and children. Make it a pro-feminist policy.

  59. Bert says:

    I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again:

    The best hope for Africa would be the installation of brutal dictators who will forcibly seal their countries’ borders and impose Chinese one-child policies, complete with sterilizations, forced abortions and all that other fun stuff.

    Down with democracy!

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  60. Dew says:
    @Sean
    Their relatives will be your relatives, rely on it. The immigrants are mainly male and they are from polygamous cultures which have selected for ...

    Zemmour lamented that the “white proletariat” is "helpless before the 'ostentatious virility of their black and Arab competitors seducing numerous young white women.'"
     

    The average European male is making it too easy for the immigrant men to seduce/rape white women. If the western man want to piss off immigrant men, he should be seducing immigrant women. Those girls dream of it, believe it or not.

    Take it a step further only allow in immigrant women and children. Make it a pro-feminist policy.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Romanian
    Is this true? It strikes me as being a bit self-fulfilling to be lamenting the loss of your women to virile foreigners that are more attractive than local stock. Maybe you're better off without the crazy feminism addled broads. Some nice immigrant girl who'll thank you with tears in her eyes for not beating her would be a much more relaxing match :P. Like that henpecked uncle of mine who's 80 years old and still talks about his business trip to Japan where he visited his counterpart's home and the wife would only speak when specifically allowed to. I kid. Are there any statistics on inter-racial couples in Western Europe? Or at least immigrants married to locals?

    I've seen quite a few Africans with Romanian girls, of varying degrees of attractiveness, (viceversa as well but more rarely) but I've never heard of anyone tying the knot with one. Then again, I don't know what difficulties visibly mixed race babies would have in the school system. On the one hand, we're not that used to diversity, especially in schools. On the other hand, we don't have that background of bad blood with immigrant ethnicities (homefront minorities are a different thing). I guess it might be galling enough to know that the girls are just settling down with their countrymen but spending their wild years with the testosteronated imports.

    People around here who marry outside the ethnicity pool of the EU generally go for Turks, some Iranians, or other peoples who would have been considered Caucasian in another time. Especially since communists were big on bringing students from non-aligned movement countries. I've heard a few horror stories on cultural mismatches, but most marriages endure (maybe it's self-selection). Then again, we have the woman stealing foreigner trope as well, but in relation to the more worldly and rich Westerners. A joke has it that a plane of Italians lands in Timisoara and 2 planes leave.
  61. @Anonymous
    Wow jet wow . The racism on display herd is sickening. You guys are pretty much saying Africans are should not have many children

    Spew some chunks Guy. Yes, yes and yes.

    Read More
  62. @5371
    Anyone who has even the most basic knowledge of demography knows that a population which has grown at 1.4% a year between the last two censuses, and has a negative migratory balance, has a TFR higher than 1.85. If such is not your case, perhaps you should refrain from comment.

    You certainly are arrogant for someone who knows practically nothing about demography. Try reading this article to get a feel for how a nation can have sub-replacement TFR but still have high population growth.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    In summary: A country can have fewer children being born than people of childbearing age (i.e. sub-replacement TFR) but still have far more children being born than elderly people who are dying off. (i.e. positive population growth)

    This is called the “pig in the python” or “demographic momentum” phenomenon in demography.

    Read More
    • Replies: @5371
    If you were as good at arithmetic as you are at copying and pasting, you wouldn't have wasted your time denying the obvious.
  63. @5371
    Anyone who has even the most basic knowledge of demography knows that a population which has grown at 1.4% a year between the last two censuses, and has a negative migratory balance, has a TFR higher than 1.85. If such is not your case, perhaps you should refrain from comment.

    5371 — I’m afraid you’re the one who is absent a “basic knowledge of demography”.

    All you need to grow 1.4% a year is for births to exceed deaths by a number that is 1.4% of the population. That does not require the current TFR to be anything in particular, including above replacement.

    In the case of Iran, they had a huge population baby boom after the revolution. There are a *lot* of Iranians in the 20-35 baby creating bracket. However, those folks are creating far fewer babies than their own numbers. The reason the population is still growing strongly is because those fewer babies (than parents) are still way, way more numerous than the much smaller oldster cohorts that are dying off. (BTW, Steve has pointed out this time delay effect numerous times.)

    Observe the population pyramid chart here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran

    Even if you do not believe these population figures, they are easily sufficient to create the sub-replacement fertility, but high population growth rate that you seem to think is some sort of mathematical quandary.

    Read More
  64. Calogero says:

    If a billion Africans move to Europe, Africa will still be overpopulated . It will still be dirt poor and hopelessly violent. The only difference between now and then is that Europe will also be part of the third world. There will be no more righteous whites like Bob Geldof to help out the starving Ethiopians. Europeans should make the case that they can do far more for Africa if the Africans stay in Africa and Europe is still Europe.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Yup.
    And another point is that they'll soon 'make-up' that off-loaded one billion. It would only take them around 20 years to do so. So in the long-run, the African invasion of Europe is pretty pointless in terms of relieving population pressures in Africa.
    But to Europe, it's not pointless as it would pretty damned quickly turn Europe into Africa North.

    Vote UKIP.
  65. asdf says:

    I can see why Barbados numbers are different from Niger.

    Barbados – you might have a decent adult life. Niger, etc – well, have sex and show off the kids, there is nothing else.

    Read More
  66. 5371 says:
    @Bob Arctor
    You certainly are arrogant for someone who knows practically nothing about demography. Try reading this article to get a feel for how a nation can have sub-replacement TFR but still have high population growth.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum

    In summary: A country can have fewer children being born than people of childbearing age (i.e. sub-replacement TFR) but still have far more children being born than elderly people who are dying off. (i.e. positive population growth)

    This is called the "pig in the python" or "demographic momentum" phenomenon in demography.

    If you were as good at arithmetic as you are at copying and pasting, you wouldn’t have wasted your time denying the obvious.

    Read More
  67. 5371 says:
    @foxy
    why do you doubt.mullahs support family planning in Iran.

    That is true, and Iranian fertility has indeed declined very considerably. Just not to that level.

    Read More
  68. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Merema
    Before a tsunami of African migrants get to Europe, a tsunami of Africans has to FIRST hit North Africa, and that is simply not going to happen- the Arabs and Berbers will not allow it. In their history, and they have a very long one, they have never allowed a mass migration of sub-sahara Africans into their lands, and why would they start now? .

    There is no threat to the globe from an African population explosion as Africans will not be allowed in in large enough numbers by ANY non- black country-no matter how liberal, including Europe.
    Non blacks, whether white, yellow or brown have a quite understanding among themselves, and share real fear of a black planet. They can only tolerate just a small black presence in their societies-this is a cold fact and a non-brainer.

    Google the story of how many hundreds of thousands of East Africans Saudi Arabia violently deported in a matter of DAYS. No one said a peep. Israel deports Africans all the time. India has lynched a few here and there.

    The population explosion is a threat to Africans alone, as it leads to further degradation of the already low quality of life there.

    Africans are very open to planned parenthood when it is available, but that requires, at least for now, the presence of a working, somewhat competent governments. TFR has gone down drastically in countries such as Zimbabwe, Ghana, Eritrea, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa thanks to their governments and NGOs.

    What is needed is a new type of extremely cheap, simple birth control pill that the African masses can obtain for themselves independently on the market without the need of NGOs or functioning state agents.

    Whites will probably end up as a minuscule portion of the global population in the near future, but that is, can not be The End. Sometime in the future, probably not in our life time, there could be a paradigm shift in the how the European mind perceives marriage and birthing, allowing for a larger global European population. Who would have thought that sharia based Iran and S. Arabia would have such incredibly low birth rates in one life time? Anything is possible.

    The question right now should be, what went wrong with European folk, here and there, and when did it happen, to bring about such a near catastrophic population collapse?

    As for America, well, the force of history, or karma or nature seems to be at work it seems, seeing that the population landscape is shifting, turning Metzito, indigenous Indian.

    No. You’ve got it absolutely and completely wrong.

    The north Africans can and will allow black African transit through their nations as long as there is profit in it for themselves.
    Secondly, the powers that run the EU show again and again that they value and treasure the lives and well being of subSaharan African invaders higher than they do the lives and well being of indigenous white Europeans.

    Read More
  69. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Calogero
    If a billion Africans move to Europe, Africa will still be overpopulated . It will still be dirt poor and hopelessly violent. The only difference between now and then is that Europe will also be part of the third world. There will be no more righteous whites like Bob Geldof to help out the starving Ethiopians. Europeans should make the case that they can do far more for Africa if the Africans stay in Africa and Europe is still Europe.

    Yup.
    And another point is that they’ll soon ‘make-up’ that off-loaded one billion. It would only take them around 20 years to do so. So in the long-run, the African invasion of Europe is pretty pointless in terms of relieving population pressures in Africa.
    But to Europe, it’s not pointless as it would pretty damned quickly turn Europe into Africa North.

    Vote UKIP.

    Read More
  70. Romanian says:
    @Dew
    The average European male is making it too easy for the immigrant men to seduce/rape white women. If the western man want to piss off immigrant men, he should be seducing immigrant women. Those girls dream of it, believe it or not.

    Take it a step further only allow in immigrant women and children. Make it a pro-feminist policy.

    Is this true? It strikes me as being a bit self-fulfilling to be lamenting the loss of your women to virile foreigners that are more attractive than local stock. Maybe you’re better off without the crazy feminism addled broads. Some nice immigrant girl who’ll thank you with tears in her eyes for not beating her would be a much more relaxing match :P. Like that henpecked uncle of mine who’s 80 years old and still talks about his business trip to Japan where he visited his counterpart’s home and the wife would only speak when specifically allowed to. I kid. Are there any statistics on inter-racial couples in Western Europe? Or at least immigrants married to locals?

    I’ve seen quite a few Africans with Romanian girls, of varying degrees of attractiveness, (viceversa as well but more rarely) but I’ve never heard of anyone tying the knot with one. Then again, I don’t know what difficulties visibly mixed race babies would have in the school system. On the one hand, we’re not that used to diversity, especially in schools. On the other hand, we don’t have that background of bad blood with immigrant ethnicities (homefront minorities are a different thing). I guess it might be galling enough to know that the girls are just settling down with their countrymen but spending their wild years with the testosteronated imports.

    People around here who marry outside the ethnicity pool of the EU generally go for Turks, some Iranians, or other peoples who would have been considered Caucasian in another time. Especially since communists were big on bringing students from non-aligned movement countries. I’ve heard a few horror stories on cultural mismatches, but most marriages endure (maybe it’s self-selection). Then again, we have the woman stealing foreigner trope as well, but in relation to the more worldly and rich Westerners. A joke has it that a plane of Italians lands in Timisoara and 2 planes leave.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Sean
    I know of a Romanian doctor who is with with a black boyfriend, despite the fact that there are very few in my part of Britain. She said back home the black man is the devil. In their home town in Romania you can't really tell which girls might be attracted to them if there was no disapproval.

    In Britain in 2012 of babies born to Polish mothers who didn't have Polish fathers, 23% had African or Asian fathers. That is rather astonishing because many Polish mothers must have arrived as part of existing couples so the single Polish women in Britain chose black men far more often than one might expect.

    Anyway the immigrants are going to head for north Europe where the jobs are, like Romanians are doing, especially the qualified ones. Romania will have to start looking abroad for its doctors soon.
  71. Sean says:
    @Romanian
    Is this true? It strikes me as being a bit self-fulfilling to be lamenting the loss of your women to virile foreigners that are more attractive than local stock. Maybe you're better off without the crazy feminism addled broads. Some nice immigrant girl who'll thank you with tears in her eyes for not beating her would be a much more relaxing match :P. Like that henpecked uncle of mine who's 80 years old and still talks about his business trip to Japan where he visited his counterpart's home and the wife would only speak when specifically allowed to. I kid. Are there any statistics on inter-racial couples in Western Europe? Or at least immigrants married to locals?

    I've seen quite a few Africans with Romanian girls, of varying degrees of attractiveness, (viceversa as well but more rarely) but I've never heard of anyone tying the knot with one. Then again, I don't know what difficulties visibly mixed race babies would have in the school system. On the one hand, we're not that used to diversity, especially in schools. On the other hand, we don't have that background of bad blood with immigrant ethnicities (homefront minorities are a different thing). I guess it might be galling enough to know that the girls are just settling down with their countrymen but spending their wild years with the testosteronated imports.

    People around here who marry outside the ethnicity pool of the EU generally go for Turks, some Iranians, or other peoples who would have been considered Caucasian in another time. Especially since communists were big on bringing students from non-aligned movement countries. I've heard a few horror stories on cultural mismatches, but most marriages endure (maybe it's self-selection). Then again, we have the woman stealing foreigner trope as well, but in relation to the more worldly and rich Westerners. A joke has it that a plane of Italians lands in Timisoara and 2 planes leave.

    I know of a Romanian doctor who is with with a black boyfriend, despite the fact that there are very few in my part of Britain. She said back home the black man is the devil. In their home town in Romania you can’t really tell which girls might be attracted to them if there was no disapproval.

    In Britain in 2012 of babies born to Polish mothers who didn’t have Polish fathers, 23% had African or Asian fathers. That is rather astonishing because many Polish mothers must have arrived as part of existing couples so the single Polish women in Britain chose black men far more often than one might expect.

    Anyway the immigrants are going to head for north Europe where the jobs are, like Romanians are doing, especially the qualified ones. Romania will have to start looking abroad for its doctors soon.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Romanian
    All good points, though I think that the most attractive places for my countrymen are Spain and Italy, where they adapt very easily and can learn the language quickly. There are already millions there. The brain drain problem is real, but I can't be judgmental, since they have a right to go where they are better valued, if their new hosts would have them. We graduate plenty of doctors, since it is a prestigious position, we don't retain them because we can't pay them well or enable them to lead a dignified lifestyle in line with their prestige and self-image. Bribing is universal and a response to gaps in the system, so many doctors do live well, but I wouldn't call it dignified, under the circumstances.

    A friend of mine had Hodgkin's lymphoma, and he easily plonked down like 500 euros per month in bribes during the chemo treatments every 2 weeks. The chemo is actually free, and radiation therapy is either free or partially covered if you go to the private sector (which has the newest tech and shiny clinics, but also high prices). You actually pay a little "attention" to the nurse supervising the process, to the hematologist checking up on your status and blood work etc. It's not even a bribe per se, because everyone pays it, so it just levels the playing field. It's common social knowledge how much you should gift a surgeon, an anesthesiologist, a nurse, a head-nurse, a specialty consult, depending on city, hospital quality, personal renown. Needless to say, nothing like this happens in the private sector, where most doctors also moonlight to round up their income. The tipping ritual, with its pretend refusal and insistence, can feel a bit degrading to my yuppie peers, so everyone I know gets their Communist educated parents to handle the dirty deed.

    Regarding immigrants - the founder of the Romanian emergency rescue services, who are universally well thought of, is actually a Palestinian, wouldn't you know, who is a very well known public figure. But I don't think immigration can cover any deficit we may have, because we'll be competing for the doctors with the countries which are already more attractive for our local doctors, who also have to sever many ties and bonds so they can move.
  72. Romanian says:
    @Sean
    I know of a Romanian doctor who is with with a black boyfriend, despite the fact that there are very few in my part of Britain. She said back home the black man is the devil. In their home town in Romania you can't really tell which girls might be attracted to them if there was no disapproval.

    In Britain in 2012 of babies born to Polish mothers who didn't have Polish fathers, 23% had African or Asian fathers. That is rather astonishing because many Polish mothers must have arrived as part of existing couples so the single Polish women in Britain chose black men far more often than one might expect.

    Anyway the immigrants are going to head for north Europe where the jobs are, like Romanians are doing, especially the qualified ones. Romania will have to start looking abroad for its doctors soon.

    All good points, though I think that the most attractive places for my countrymen are Spain and Italy, where they adapt very easily and can learn the language quickly. There are already millions there. The brain drain problem is real, but I can’t be judgmental, since they have a right to go where they are better valued, if their new hosts would have them. We graduate plenty of doctors, since it is a prestigious position, we don’t retain them because we can’t pay them well or enable them to lead a dignified lifestyle in line with their prestige and self-image. Bribing is universal and a response to gaps in the system, so many doctors do live well, but I wouldn’t call it dignified, under the circumstances.

    A friend of mine had Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and he easily plonked down like 500 euros per month in bribes during the chemo treatments every 2 weeks. The chemo is actually free, and radiation therapy is either free or partially covered if you go to the private sector (which has the newest tech and shiny clinics, but also high prices). You actually pay a little “attention” to the nurse supervising the process, to the hematologist checking up on your status and blood work etc. It’s not even a bribe per se, because everyone pays it, so it just levels the playing field. It’s common social knowledge how much you should gift a surgeon, an anesthesiologist, a nurse, a head-nurse, a specialty consult, depending on city, hospital quality, personal renown. Needless to say, nothing like this happens in the private sector, where most doctors also moonlight to round up their income. The tipping ritual, with its pretend refusal and insistence, can feel a bit degrading to my yuppie peers, so everyone I know gets their Communist educated parents to handle the dirty deed.

    Regarding immigrants – the founder of the Romanian emergency rescue services, who are universally well thought of, is actually a Palestinian, wouldn’t you know, who is a very well known public figure. But I don’t think immigration can cover any deficit we may have, because we’ll be competing for the doctors with the countries which are already more attractive for our local doctors, who also have to sever many ties and bonds so they can move.

    Read More
  73. Sean says:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/423801/Girl-snubbed-by-UK-universities-is-to-train-as-doctor-in-Romania

    In Britain the BMA, the doctors’ trade union (they don’t call it that but it is in effect) kept wages high by restricting the number of doctors. Simple supply and demand. Unfortunately that just draws in more and more foreign doctors. You can have well paid doctors staying put but scarce, or lots of doctors who are poorly paid and thinking themselves fools for staying in their own country. (Gunnar Heinsohn says Romania is the first country in the world where there are more retirees than active workers).

    This Romanian girl also said that because she has a good job she keeps being made godmother, and is expected to fork out a small fortune for weddings when she goes back.

    Read More

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