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We can ask this question about life expectancy first for people in the bottom quarter of the income distribution and then for people in the top quarter of affluence.

According to Stanford economist Raj Chetty’s paper, the poor live longest where there is massive economic inequality, lots and lots of cops, and unaffordable housing: e.g., New York City. Health care access doesn’t much matter to the poor’s life expectancy. Social conservatism and social capital doesn’t matter either. In other words, the poor appear to do best in some kind of plutocratic Giuliani-ville. Ayn Rand would feel vindicated (if she cared about the poor).

(I don’t actually believe this is true in terms of policy advice: I think Chetty’s result may well be an artifact of churn of his populations: healthy young poor immigrants move to ultra-expensive cities like NYC until they are used up, at which point they leave for some place cheaper.)

In contrast, the top quarter of income Americans live longest in economically more equal and socially conservative places, with broad health care access, fewer immigrants, and non-supercharged economies: kind of like Denmark.

From Raj Chetty’s new paper based on your confidential tax returns, The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014, here are the correlations between life expectancies for people in the bottom 25% of national income on their 1040s and various characteristics of their “commuting zones” (e.g. extra-large metro areas). The highest life expectancy metro for people in the bottom quarter of income is New York, followed by Santa Barbara, San Jose (Silicon Valley), Miami, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco. In other words, the poor live longest in super expensive cities with lots of rich people, lots of economic inequality, and lots of cops.

The shortest life expectancy metros for bottom quartile individuals are Gary, Las Vegas, Oklahoma City, Indianapolis, Tulsa, and Detroit.

For example, unsurprisingly, there’s a strong negative correlation between the % of residents who smoke and the life expectancy of lower income residents. (Keep in mind, though, that these are not individual-level correlations. Chetty has individual-level data from 1040s on income and whether or not the individual died in the last year. He doesn’t have data on whether the individual taxpayer smokes, is obese, exercises, or what not. So, he’s correlating individual level data on income and age at death with local averages, such as smoking.)

Screenshot 2016-04-11 16.53.07

In summary, local customs regarding health behaviors (smoking, obesity, exercise) are very important for the poor’s life expectancy. Measures of access to health care don’t correlate well with life expectancy.

Income inequality and income segregation by neighborhood are modestly good for the life expectancy of poor people.

Prosperity and population growth aren’t very important.

The unimportance of the % Black Adults figure is an artifact of Chetty presenting to us race/ethnicity adjusted figures. Blacks have shorter life expectancies than, say, Asians, but Chetty has already adjusted life expectancy in each metro area for its racial makeup. (But there are racial interaction effects that he’s missing, which drive some of his outliers.)

Black life expectancy, fortunately, has been improving since NWA broke up, with fewer black on black homicides and fewer deaths from AIDS. Asian life expectancy is expectedly high, while Mexican life expectancy is unexpectedly high. White and American Indian life expectancy has been doing poorly in this century, especially working class and/or Scots-Irish whites.

The Other Factors section at the bottom give away what’s going on in driving local areas’ life expectancies among bottom quartile income individuals. Places with high median home values, which correlate with having lots of college graduates, attract lots of immigrants who come to work hard for the relatively high wages available to people willing to sacrifice living space or short commutes for some period of years. These “sojourners” tend to be healthy and live a long time. Like the man said, if they can make it there they can make it anywhere.

If they can’t make it in an ultra-expensive city, such as because they are in poor health, they tend to leave for some place cheaper. Less expensive cities tend to fill up with people either shed from expensive cities or daunted from even trying.

That’s one reason the Charles Murray / Robert D. Putnam community virtues don’t matter much in this graph: poor people appear to live longer if there is a lot of dynamic churn in the economy, which disrupts community social capital and makes life more economically unequal.

But, we don’t know if that’s a genuine treatment effect or if it’s just an artifact of churn in the population: if somebody moves from Mexico to New York City and sleeps in a bunk bed while hustling at two busboy jobs, they’re probably in vigorous health. But if their health breaks down in NYC and they move to relatively short-lived San Antonio for an easier life, where they die early there, how does Chetty count that?

In contrast, for people in the upper quarter of the national income distribution, the contributory factors for longer life expectancies (other than smoking, obesity, and exercise work) work quite differently.

The longest lived people in the top quarter of income (already adjusted for race) are found in the region around tee-totaling Salt Lake City (no surprise), hardy Portland in Maine, Spokane, Santa Barbara, Denver, Minneapolis, and quite Dutch Grand Rapids: the more conservative part of a Stuff White People Like list of places to live.

For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary, Honolulu, Brownsville, El Paso, Bakersfield, Miami, Lakeland in FL, and Los Angeles: very Stuff White People Don’t Like.

Screenshot 2016-04-11 17.26.08

So, looking at correlations, a culture of non-smoking, non-obese, and exercise helps the affluent as well as the poor.

After that however, things diverge: Health care access measures matter more for affluent than the poor, paradoxically.

The well to do benefit health-wise from Murray-Putnam socially conservative social capital and greater economic equality. The well to do don’t last long in boom towns. Having a lot of immigrants around isn’t good for the upper quarter, but having a lot of college graduates around is good.

In other words, white people tend to do best in the more unfashionable SWPL places like Salt Lake City and the other Portland. Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising.

 
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  1. Life expectancy is secondary to fertility.

    Nations with high LE are dying off.

  2. I’m actually not surprised that healthcare access matters less for the poor. For life-threatening matters, they get access to an emergency room, regardless of whether they “have access to healthcare” in the sense of insurance coverage.

    My wife is a nurse and she regales me daily with stories of non-English speakers going to the ER because of very mild fevers or injuries (their pain level is always “diez”), the drug seekers that know that complaining of abdominal pain guarantees Dilaudid, the diabetics that are back in the hospital shortly after having their feet amputated because they’re still not following an appropriate diet, and patients that don’t even pretend to listen while they’re being given instructions about how to use meds, make lifestyle changes, etc to keep them from being back in the hospital.

    The hospitals are essentially held hostage by them because they are required to report patient feedback, and if satisfaction scores are poor enough they risk losing federal funding. The “patients” treat nurses like room service – “Nurse, could you get my guests some refreshments?” is an actual quote from a drug seeker that was faking to get opiates – and don’t make any effort to take care of themselves.

    These are exactly the kind of people that need social pressure to not be obese, or a drug addict or commit whatever other form of slow suicide.

    • Replies: @Jim Don Bob
    No. "These are exactly the kind of people that" we need to deport.

    Thanks for the war story.

  3. “For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary,”

    There are wealthy people who reside in Gary, Indiana? That’s news to me. With the extreme high crime and poverty rate in that Negro city, I hope their mansions have the best home security system in the world.

    Also do Asian American residents of Las Vegas on average have a shorter life expectancy than White residents of Sin City? After all Asians are disproportionately more likely to be degenerate gamblers than Whites.

    The last time I was at a casino, it looked like Little Manila up in there.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "There are wealthy people who reside in Gary, Indiana?"

    It's the "commuting zone," not the municipality.

    , @Jay Fink
    I lived in Las Vegas most of my life. My ex girlfriend was Filipino. She and her family were all degenerate gamblers, specifically those cartoon slot machines. Her sister makes good money as a nurse yet her kids go hungry because her sister spends most of her earnings on slots. LV is fun to visit but a very dysfunctional place to live.
  4. @Jefferson
    "For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary,"

    There are wealthy people who reside in Gary, Indiana? That's news to me. With the extreme high crime and poverty rate in that Negro city, I hope their mansions have the best home security system in the world.

    Also do Asian American residents of Las Vegas on average have a shorter life expectancy than White residents of Sin City? After all Asians are disproportionately more likely to be degenerate gamblers than Whites.

    The last time I was at a casino, it looked like Little Manila up in there.

    “There are wealthy people who reside in Gary, Indiana?”

    It’s the “commuting zone,” not the municipality.

  5. My father was an alcoholic chain smoker who ate lots of red meat. I never knew him not to have a lit cigarette, and he generally held a glass of Scotch in the evening. He taught me how to grill steaks.

    He lived to be 85.

    Greatest Generation, you know.

    It’s mostly the genetic lottery.

    One of my neighbors is an Eastern European widow well into her 90’s. She regularly attends the Metropolitan Opera; when she’s not doing that, she picnics on the local beach with her friends. Once in a while, she will call and ask me to unclog a drain or fix a light or some such thing.

    She has a very positive outlook. She is living life!

    I once asked her, as we all do, what her secret was. She told me she drinks “Stoli” (Stolichnaya vodka) every morning.

    Just have the best time you can. You won’t be here long.

    • Replies: @Matthew Kelly
    As an old Russian flame liked to tell me, "If you don't drink and don't smoke, you'll just die healthy."
  6. A white guy I know in Manhattan is very bright, in his mid-60s, has a lot of physical and psychological challenges (translation: he takes about 15 prescription drugs a day), and hasn’t made a penny of income in nearly 20 years. Yet he gets by. Rent stabilization keeps his apartment (which he’s had since the 1970s) cheap; a disability check gives him enough to pay for the internet and keep him in Subway sandwiches, about all he’s interested in eating; and city medical services pay for most of his doctor appointments and drugs.

    It isn’t an enviable life — a new set of underpants or a new shirt is a major expense for him — and he doesn’t even take much advantage of the free cultural life the city offers. But he’s living in his own place in a non-scuzzy Manhattan neighborhood, he’s feeding himself adequately, he’s horsing around on the web, he’s getting his medical needs looked after, and he’s doing it all on basically zero income.

    A factor I don’t think I’ve seen anyone raise about life in NYC: you don’t need a car to live decently. That’s a huge chunk of change saved. And it probably doesn’t hurt to be doing more routine walking than most Americans do either.

    I sometimes wonder why my acquaintance doesn’t move someplace more friendly and less overwhelming than NYC, but he loves the city, and — who knows — maybe he wouldn’t be able to do as well for himself elsewhere.

    (Milking the city’s social system for all it’s worth is something that thousands of New Yorkers are devoted to and often very accomplished at, but that’s another story.)

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.
    , @vinny

    A factor I don’t think I’ve seen anyone raise about life in NYC: you don’t need a car to live decently.
     
    Car dependency is a huge issue for the non-rich elderly. Even if you can afford a weekly taxi to the grocery store, it's not the same as being able to just hop out to get coffee with a friend. In Manhattan, that is very easy. In the rest of the US... less so. Watch out boomers.
  7. @Paleo Retiree
    A white guy I know in Manhattan is very bright, in his mid-60s, has a lot of physical and psychological challenges (translation: he takes about 15 prescription drugs a day), and hasn't made a penny of income in nearly 20 years. Yet he gets by. Rent stabilization keeps his apartment (which he's had since the 1970s) cheap; a disability check gives him enough to pay for the internet and keep him in Subway sandwiches, about all he's interested in eating; and city medical services pay for most of his doctor appointments and drugs.

    It isn't an enviable life -- a new set of underpants or a new shirt is a major expense for him -- and he doesn't even take much advantage of the free cultural life the city offers. But he's living in his own place in a non-scuzzy Manhattan neighborhood, he's feeding himself adequately, he's horsing around on the web, he's getting his medical needs looked after, and he's doing it all on basically zero income.

    A factor I don't think I've seen anyone raise about life in NYC: you don't need a car to live decently. That's a huge chunk of change saved. And it probably doesn't hurt to be doing more routine walking than most Americans do either.

    I sometimes wonder why my acquaintance doesn't move someplace more friendly and less overwhelming than NYC, but he loves the city, and -- who knows -- maybe he wouldn't be able to do as well for himself elsewhere.

    (Milking the city's social system for all it's worth is something that thousands of New Yorkers are devoted to and often very accomplished at, but that's another story.)

    Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.

    • Replies: @shk12344
    That pretty much describes Los Angeles. With downtown Los Angeles gentrified, you won't need a car.
    , @Jefferson
    "Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor."

    As a White guy I wouldn't want to be poor in New York City, especially if it means living in one of it's housing projects where nobody racially looks like me. My race would automatically make me a target for Dindu thugs.

    , @Jenner Ickham Errican
    Indeed. I don’t know how much the New York Times pays him, but this interesting doc (on Netflix until April 15th) shows that one can live a long, frugal life in an “unwelcoming” place if one makes some (to many, deal-breaking) concessions.

    It shows Cunningham traveling through Manhattan by bicycle and living in a tiny apartment in the Carnegie Hall building. The apartment has no closet, kitchen, or private bathroom, and is filled with filing cabinets and boxes of his photographs.
     
    Bonus: Appearance by Tom Wolfe.

    OT: To take the heat off, Gay Talese should upgrade his name to LGBTQ Talese.

  8. Re Santa Barbara … As others have noted, a lot of SB’s working-class people come in from out of town — from Goleta, Ventura, Santa Maria and beyond. But, despite the general ritziness of the actual city of SB, there are a couple of genuine working-class neighborhoods in the city itself, as well as a sizable working-class population. East of Milpas Avenue, for example, are block after block of ultracute classic small California houses, like places out of a James M. Cain novel, and the inhabitants are 99% working-class Mexican.

    How and why this is possible — why haven’t these blocks been snatched up by yuppies and such? — is completely beyond me, but there it is.

    • Replies: @Formerly CARealist
    well, just checked out zillow. The prices for SB homes for sale are ridiculous. If there's any cheap homes for Mexican workers, they don't show up there. They must be renters with 50 people living in each home.

    Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara. You know how Jerry Brown said normal people can't get into Berkeley anymore? Well, normal people can't go buy a house in SB anymore. Something is really messed up and I wish someone would explain it.
    , @jeremiahjohnbalaya
    How and why this is possible — why haven’t these blocks[east of Milpas St, in Santa Barbara] been snatched up by yuppies and such? — is completely beyond me, but there it is.

    Santa Barbara has some kind of property tax law where the rates can't rise if you've owned for long enough. I think that's what allows the old-timers to stay, and stay poor, around here. I think. Google is not being kind. And I'm too lazy to walk upstairs and ask my landlord (long time owner here in SB).
  9. @ATX Hipster
    I'm actually not surprised that healthcare access matters less for the poor. For life-threatening matters, they get access to an emergency room, regardless of whether they "have access to healthcare" in the sense of insurance coverage.

    My wife is a nurse and she regales me daily with stories of non-English speakers going to the ER because of very mild fevers or injuries (their pain level is always "diez"), the drug seekers that know that complaining of abdominal pain guarantees Dilaudid, the diabetics that are back in the hospital shortly after having their feet amputated because they're still not following an appropriate diet, and patients that don't even pretend to listen while they're being given instructions about how to use meds, make lifestyle changes, etc to keep them from being back in the hospital.

    The hospitals are essentially held hostage by them because they are required to report patient feedback, and if satisfaction scores are poor enough they risk losing federal funding. The "patients" treat nurses like room service - "Nurse, could you get my guests some refreshments?" is an actual quote from a drug seeker that was faking to get opiates - and don't make any effort to take care of themselves.

    These are exactly the kind of people that need social pressure to not be obese, or a drug addict or commit whatever other form of slow suicide.

    No. “These are exactly the kind of people that” we need to deport.

    Thanks for the war story.

    • Replies: @Kylie
    "No. 'These are exactly the kind of people that' we need to deport."

    Agreed. And those who are citizens should be given palliative care only.
    , @Jack D
    Depending on what city or town you are in, the emergency room scene that ATX Hipster is describing is on average roughly 1/3 Hispanic, 1/3 black and 1/3 lower class white. So even if we were to deport every one of the Hispanics (some of whom are already citizens or who were born here) that would leave the ER still 2/3 full. It would certainly help but it wouldn't mean that our problems are over.
  10. @Steve Sailer
    Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.

    That pretty much describes Los Angeles. With downtown Los Angeles gentrified, you won’t need a car.

  11. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “Income inequality and income segregation by neighborhood are modestly good for the life expectancy of poor people.”

    A rare case where Sailer misses the obvious one paragraph explanation.

    if you must be poor–and we’re *stipulating* that you are–would you rather be surrounded by rich people or poor people if your life is on the line?

    it’s that simple. inequality isnt the per se good here. it’s just better to have rich people around you than poor people, period.

    a great example of where robotic statistical “analysis” misses the point and not in a forgivably subtle way, either. “but the correlation suggests inequality…” no, it doesnt. it suggests no such thing. full stop. the correlation *exists*–exists not suggests–because rich people are good to know and its good to be able to use their infrastructure.

    poor peoples neighbors who are not rich have problems to worry about besides poor losers. rich people really dont have anything else to worry about.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it's saying that living in a "commuting zone" with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty's methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It's not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

  12. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:

    “So, looking at correlations, a culture of non-smoking, non-obese, and exercise helps the affluent as well as the poor.”

    can you go back to college and un-major in economics?

    the correlations suggest no such thing. period. full stop. i cant emphasize this enough. these correlations imply literally nothing about any culture “helping” the affluent.

    correlations are economists’ occam’s didgeridoo or something.

  13. @Anonymous
    "Income inequality and income segregation by neighborhood are modestly good for the life expectancy of poor people."

    A rare case where Sailer misses the obvious one paragraph explanation.


    if you must be poor--and we're *stipulating* that you are--would you rather be surrounded by rich people or poor people if your life is on the line?

    it's that simple. inequality isnt the per se good here. it's just better to have rich people around you than poor people, period.


    a great example of where robotic statistical "analysis" misses the point and not in a forgivably subtle way, either. "but the correlation suggests inequality..." no, it doesnt. it suggests no such thing. full stop. the correlation *exists*--exists not suggests--because rich people are good to know and its good to be able to use their infrastructure.


    poor peoples neighbors who are not rich have problems to worry about besides poor losers. rich people really dont have anything else to worry about.

    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it’s saying that living in a “commuting zone” with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty’s methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It’s not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    "A big question I still have about Chetty’s methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time."

    I'm deep into the 99th percentile of moving (to entirely different areas) so I feel like I have some intuition here.

    I'd guess that moving is per se a negative indicator. I don't know how Chetty would measure that, though.


    And, of course, there are different kinds of moving. Moving to retire is one thing, moving frequently because you're in the military but don't plan to do it forever is another, etc.



    The only person I ever met who could match the places I've lived was a peripatetic criminal who, presumably, had his own peculiar reasons.
    , @Anonymous
    Here's something to consider about longevity--a lot depends on your children.


    The hardnosed Chinese people who stuck it out in NYC are the ones who raised children (in the ghetto or quasi-ghetto) who went to Stuyvesant and Cornell.


    That's what I mean by it's better to be surrounded by rich people than poor people. If you were an alcoholic loser like Billy Carter or Roger Clinton who would you want as a brother? The president or another alcoholic loser?


    The same applies to children and directly affects longevity if you've ever had a parent in decline. It's the children who take on the burden of getting the best care.
    , @Portlander

    "No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it’s saying that living in a “commuting zone” with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno."
     
    As Paleo retiree alluded:
    High Income Segregation == Progressive (read Machine) Politics == Social Safety Hammock
    , @Anonymous
    "But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die."

    $15/hour under the table to clean houses for rich people in Manhattan sounds awfully low, doesn't it?
  14. @Paleo Retiree
    A white guy I know in Manhattan is very bright, in his mid-60s, has a lot of physical and psychological challenges (translation: he takes about 15 prescription drugs a day), and hasn't made a penny of income in nearly 20 years. Yet he gets by. Rent stabilization keeps his apartment (which he's had since the 1970s) cheap; a disability check gives him enough to pay for the internet and keep him in Subway sandwiches, about all he's interested in eating; and city medical services pay for most of his doctor appointments and drugs.

    It isn't an enviable life -- a new set of underpants or a new shirt is a major expense for him -- and he doesn't even take much advantage of the free cultural life the city offers. But he's living in his own place in a non-scuzzy Manhattan neighborhood, he's feeding himself adequately, he's horsing around on the web, he's getting his medical needs looked after, and he's doing it all on basically zero income.

    A factor I don't think I've seen anyone raise about life in NYC: you don't need a car to live decently. That's a huge chunk of change saved. And it probably doesn't hurt to be doing more routine walking than most Americans do either.

    I sometimes wonder why my acquaintance doesn't move someplace more friendly and less overwhelming than NYC, but he loves the city, and -- who knows -- maybe he wouldn't be able to do as well for himself elsewhere.

    (Milking the city's social system for all it's worth is something that thousands of New Yorkers are devoted to and often very accomplished at, but that's another story.)

    A factor I don’t think I’ve seen anyone raise about life in NYC: you don’t need a car to live decently.

    Car dependency is a huge issue for the non-rich elderly. Even if you can afford a weekly taxi to the grocery store, it’s not the same as being able to just hop out to get coffee with a friend. In Manhattan, that is very easy. In the rest of the US… less so. Watch out boomers.

  15. Look up “Johnny Rebel” on youtube .

  16. “For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary, Honolulu, Brownsville, El Paso, Bakersfield, Miami, Lakeland in FL, and Los Angeles: very Stuff White People Don’t Like.”

    ???

    This surprises me. NE Asians, who make up a large portion of our population here, are wealthy and live long.

    Smoking rates are low and exercise rates high.

    I live near Obama’s winter white house (in Kailua) and it is the whitest, oldest zip code in Hawaii.

    Polynesians tend to be overweight and Filipinos have high rates of diabetes – but neither group is particularly wealthy.

    (on the other hand you do NOT want major medical treatment done in local hospitals)

    Did I misunderstand your post?
    Who are these wealthy people who die young in Hawaii?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    There aren't big differences in life expectancy among the well to do from place to place, but there is a modest pattern of lower life expectancy among the well-off in more hedonistic places like Las Vegas, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu.

    Maybe it's just more melanoma? Among the bottom 10 of 100 biggest metros, eight of the ten are in very sunny places. The other two are Rust Belt pits -- Gary and Youngstown -- where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    None of the places where the affluent live the shortest are very bookish.

  17. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it's saying that living in a "commuting zone" with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty's methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It's not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

    “A big question I still have about Chetty’s methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time.”

    I’m deep into the 99th percentile of moving (to entirely different areas) so I feel like I have some intuition here.

    I’d guess that moving is per se a negative indicator. I don’t know how Chetty would measure that, though.

    And, of course, there are different kinds of moving. Moving to retire is one thing, moving frequently because you’re in the military but don’t plan to do it forever is another, etc.

    The only person I ever met who could match the places I’ve lived was a peripatetic criminal who, presumably, had his own peculiar reasons.

  18. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it's saying that living in a "commuting zone" with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty's methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It's not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

    Here’s something to consider about longevity–a lot depends on your children.

    The hardnosed Chinese people who stuck it out in NYC are the ones who raised children (in the ghetto or quasi-ghetto) who went to Stuyvesant and Cornell.

    That’s what I mean by it’s better to be surrounded by rich people than poor people. If you were an alcoholic loser like Billy Carter or Roger Clinton who would you want as a brother? The president or another alcoholic loser?

    The same applies to children and directly affects longevity if you’ve ever had a parent in decline. It’s the children who take on the burden of getting the best care.

  19. @Steve Sailer
    Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.

    “Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.”

    As a White guy I wouldn’t want to be poor in New York City, especially if it means living in one of it’s housing projects where nobody racially looks like me. My race would automatically make me a target for Dindu thugs.

  20. @Langley
    "For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary, Honolulu, Brownsville, El Paso, Bakersfield, Miami, Lakeland in FL, and Los Angeles: very Stuff White People Don’t Like."

    ???

    This surprises me. NE Asians, who make up a large portion of our population here, are wealthy and live long.

    Smoking rates are low and exercise rates high.

    I live near Obama's winter white house (in Kailua) and it is the whitest, oldest zip code in Hawaii.

    Polynesians tend to be overweight and Filipinos have high rates of diabetes - but neither group is particularly wealthy.

    (on the other hand you do NOT want major medical treatment done in local hospitals)

    Did I misunderstand your post?
    Who are these wealthy people who die young in Hawaii?

    There aren’t big differences in life expectancy among the well to do from place to place, but there is a modest pattern of lower life expectancy among the well-off in more hedonistic places like Las Vegas, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu.

    Maybe it’s just more melanoma? Among the bottom 10 of 100 biggest metros, eight of the ten are in very sunny places. The other two are Rust Belt pits — Gary and Youngstown — where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    None of the places where the affluent live the shortest are very bookish.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Sheldon Adelson, is nearly eighty years old, is that correct? Las Vegas has been pretty good to him. Or maybe he's younger than I thought.

    Also, isn't sunshine, or living in a state with above average sunshine hrs. per yr. a contributor to longer life expectancy (aside from excessive amount leading to skin cancer)? After all, retirees tend to migrate to sunny areas such as FL. And again, Honolulu has made the list in the recent past as having above average life expectancy (under msn.com's annual "top ten or top twenty cities or places for longest living, best places for retirees." type of things.).

    , @Portlander

    The other two are Rust Belt pits — Gary and Youngstown — where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.
     
    Pollution? Haha. Spoken like a true Californian. :)

    Chetty's data is skewed by old-guard union guys that weren't on the ball enough to save-up and move to FL to retire. Or those same whose children didn't move away for greener pastures (ie. left-hand of the bell curve).

    Believe me, as one that grew up in the "Gary commuting zone", it was drilled into my head from before kindergarten: "you will go off to college and never come back." As I got older I realized this was as much for them, they didn't want to hang around a day longer than they had to, as for me.

    I was hardly alone with that messaging.

    , @Jack D
    I think there is a difference between the "age in place" cities and the "places where you go to retire" cities. For the latter, a lot of the older people have spent their working life in high stress environments and are pretty beat up by the time they get to retirement paradise, shortening their remaining lifespan. Also, the people in retirement havens have less of a social network - their kids are still up North somewhere and they aren't that close to them to begin with or else they wouldn't have moved away. Having a strong social network is helpful in prolonging longevity.
  21. “For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary, Honolulu, Brownsville, El Paso, Bakersfield, Miami, Lakeland in FL, and Los Angeles: very Stuff White People Don’t Like.”

    That’s strange, because Honolulu has often made the list of top twenty or top ten cities (or states, HI) for longest life expectancy. As it tends to be a very high cost of living city, that’s quite odd that it would make the list for worst life expectancy cities.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren't expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn't quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren't stars like on the mainland.

  22. None of this work can ever address the extremely perceptive questions Steve brings up, and I don’t believe it’s designed to. These correlational analyses give social scientists and policy makers more latitude in kicking around possible causes and solutions.

    There is panel data that could address almost all of these questions in a much clearer way (probably the Health and Retirement Study in the U.S. and the Australian Longitudinal Study to start). You don’t need 1 billion+ data points. The migration issue, for instance, which Steve is very right to bring up, could almost be addressed with this IRS data, since it follows a taxpayer from 1999 on. But health, race, education, habits, family life, etc. is just impossible. But many panels have this information along with good income history.

    I’m only familiar with this research agenda of Chetty’s to the extent Steve has brilliantly written about it. (Chetty has other past work which is far better but is of less general interest.) What’s notable is that much of it is published in medical journals. Correlation analyses are *not* going to get into top economics journals–it’s really not good economics–but apparently do get into top medical journals. And a lot of newspapers down the line.

    As for how one gets to study confidential tax return data, my understanding is that you would find was a coauthor at least one economist at the Treasury and for the most part they’ll be the ones working with the (already anonymized, I believe) tax data. Connections are necessary; those connections might be with former PhD advisees or something. I think the process for working with Social Security Administration data is similar. I have no idea how the IRBs work for these, though clearly we “participants”/tax filers in the studies have not consented.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Right, we have a lot of panel data sources, like the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1979, which is tracking more than 5,000 children of women in the original 1979 panel. (We now have two generations of IQ scores.) That's a pretty good data source for most of the factors that matter.

    Okay, what Chetty is trying to do is to find towns with brilliant policies that make a big difference in life outcomes. Salt Lake City is doing great, right? So it must be some genius law the city council passed, right? If we could only figure out which law, then every town in America could pass it and we'd all be as healthy and economically prosperous yet equal as the residents of Salt Lake City!

    For this kind of hopes and dreams, you would need a giant sample size like Chetty has. And he has such a huge sample that he actually can find incredibly pointillistic findings. For example, Chetty's data shows that the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation really is the worst place in America to raise your kids, just like that depressing feature article I read in the Saturday Evening Post around 1970 said.

    On the other hand, he hasn't really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting -- like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.

    But Chetty isn't very interested in this minutiae. He's looking for the formula for the Magic Dirt and why it's different from the Tragic Dirt. Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don't move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay ...

  23. @Steve Sailer
    There aren't big differences in life expectancy among the well to do from place to place, but there is a modest pattern of lower life expectancy among the well-off in more hedonistic places like Las Vegas, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu.

    Maybe it's just more melanoma? Among the bottom 10 of 100 biggest metros, eight of the ten are in very sunny places. The other two are Rust Belt pits -- Gary and Youngstown -- where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    None of the places where the affluent live the shortest are very bookish.

    Sheldon Adelson, is nearly eighty years old, is that correct? Las Vegas has been pretty good to him. Or maybe he’s younger than I thought.

    Also, isn’t sunshine, or living in a state with above average sunshine hrs. per yr. a contributor to longer life expectancy (aside from excessive amount leading to skin cancer)? After all, retirees tend to migrate to sunny areas such as FL. And again, Honolulu has made the list in the recent past as having above average life expectancy (under msn.com’s annual “top ten or top twenty cities or places for longest living, best places for retirees.” type of things.).

  24. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary, Honolulu, Brownsville, El Paso, Bakersfield, Miami, Lakeland in FL, and Los Angeles: very Stuff White People Don’t Like."

    That's strange, because Honolulu has often made the list of top twenty or top ten cities (or states, HI) for longest life expectancy. As it tends to be a very high cost of living city, that's quite odd that it would make the list for worst life expectancy cities.

    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren’t expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn’t quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Interesting. I'd also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined.

    The COX sisters, owners of COX network, based in Atlanta and was an early rival of Ted Turner's cable empire, are in their nineties and have lived in Honolulu for a few decades. Always thought that the only white people who could afford to live in HI tended to be quite wealthy as it is also a high cost of living state.
    , @Jefferson
    "My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland."

    Maybe they aren't stars like on the mainland because Filipinos outnumber the Chinese in Hawaii.

    Filipinos are more known for being government employees than they are for being business owners, engineers, computer programmers, doctors, etc. Filipinos are not killing it in the private sector.

    , @Langley
    Ah.

    "Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren’t expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy. "

    This makes sense. The raw data would probably be closer to my own observations.

    As for Asians not being stars in Hawaii - we have no hi-teck firms for them to work at so those who want to and can go to the mainland.

    The local Asians run the banks, and real estate.

    "Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland."

    The Japanese purposely do not shine in the sky "Deru kui wa utareru."

    They just got rid a a Ha'Ole governor for refusing to appoint another Japanese democrat to Inouye's seat when the senator died. Abercrombie appointed his protégée Schatz and was defeated in the Democrat primary. He was replaced by a non-entity named Ige.

    There was a watershed event last month in Hawaii politics. The Japanese Democrats stayed home and refused to vote for Hillary. The Ha'Ole Democrats voted for Bernie.

    There are great stories about politics in Hawaii...
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    I'd bet that much of that is cultural. Lots of Hawaii Asian-Americans are 3rd+ generation. More into surfing than cramming.

    Japanese-Americans in California are no more likely than White Californians to score in the 98th percentile of the PSAT. The other Asian subgroups are massively more likely. Some of that certainly reflects the selective nature of Asian migration (especially to Silicon Valley), but I'd bet there's a cultural component too.
  25. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren't expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn't quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren't stars like on the mainland.

    Interesting. I’d also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined.

    The COX sisters, owners of COX network, based in Atlanta and was an early rival of Ted Turner’s cable empire, are in their nineties and have lived in Honolulu for a few decades. Always thought that the only white people who could afford to live in HI tended to be quite wealthy as it is also a high cost of living state.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Interesting. I’d also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined."

    Honolulu has a White male homeless population. They look like they came straight out of Woodstock 1969. The only difference is they are more tanned. Most of them are definitely on drugs, marijuana at the minimum if not harder drugs.
  26. @Some Economist
    None of this work can ever address the extremely perceptive questions Steve brings up, and I don't believe it's designed to. These correlational analyses give social scientists and policy makers more latitude in kicking around possible causes and solutions.

    There is panel data that could address almost all of these questions in a much clearer way (probably the Health and Retirement Study in the U.S. and the Australian Longitudinal Study to start). You don't need 1 billion+ data points. The migration issue, for instance, which Steve is very right to bring up, could almost be addressed with this IRS data, since it follows a taxpayer from 1999 on. But health, race, education, habits, family life, etc. is just impossible. But many panels have this information along with good income history.

    I'm only familiar with this research agenda of Chetty's to the extent Steve has brilliantly written about it. (Chetty has other past work which is far better but is of less general interest.) What's notable is that much of it is published in medical journals. Correlation analyses are *not* going to get into top economics journals--it's really not good economics--but apparently do get into top medical journals. And a lot of newspapers down the line.

    As for how one gets to study confidential tax return data, my understanding is that you would find was a coauthor at least one economist at the Treasury and for the most part they'll be the ones working with the (already anonymized, I believe) tax data. Connections are necessary; those connections might be with former PhD advisees or something. I think the process for working with Social Security Administration data is similar. I have no idea how the IRBs work for these, though clearly we "participants"/tax filers in the studies have not consented.

    Right, we have a lot of panel data sources, like the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1979, which is tracking more than 5,000 children of women in the original 1979 panel. (We now have two generations of IQ scores.) That’s a pretty good data source for most of the factors that matter.

    Okay, what Chetty is trying to do is to find towns with brilliant policies that make a big difference in life outcomes. Salt Lake City is doing great, right? So it must be some genius law the city council passed, right? If we could only figure out which law, then every town in America could pass it and we’d all be as healthy and economically prosperous yet equal as the residents of Salt Lake City!

    For this kind of hopes and dreams, you would need a giant sample size like Chetty has. And he has such a huge sample that he actually can find incredibly pointillistic findings. For example, Chetty’s data shows that the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation really is the worst place in America to raise your kids, just like that depressing feature article I read in the Saturday Evening Post around 1970 said.

    On the other hand, he hasn’t really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting — like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.

    But Chetty isn’t very interested in this minutiae. He’s looking for the formula for the Magic Dirt and why it’s different from the Tragic Dirt. Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don’t move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay …

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "On the other hand, he hasn’t really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting — like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth."

    When you are in Myrtle Beach you must feel like a kid at Disneyland, or a Filipino at a casino.

    "Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don’t move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay …"

    Should she move to Salt Lake City instead?
    , @Some Economist
    Too bad those NLSY '79 participants are still so young and alive! You're right though, while they have so much information, I don't think the panel studies with older people have IQ/AFQT scores. Doing this kind of research in like 30 years with NLSY would be ideal. :)
    , @anon
    I think Dr. Chetty is trying to become a socio-economist like Prof. Amartya Sen. Prof. Sen also started studying poverty, mainly in developing countries, but later developed fundamental theories of welfare economics, social choice theory etc.,

    The phenomenon of high white death rates is attracting attention. David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Washington Post has a graphic story on Anna Marrie Jones, a prototypical early white death victim.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/a-premature-and-unnatural-death-in-rural-oklahoma/2016/04/08/7888a74c-f079-11e5-89c3-a647fcce95e0_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

    The pictures seem to support French's hypothesis that the crisis is one of spirit rather than money.
  27. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren't expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn't quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren't stars like on the mainland.

    “My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland.”

    Maybe they aren’t stars like on the mainland because Filipinos outnumber the Chinese in Hawaii.

    Filipinos are more known for being government employees than they are for being business owners, engineers, computer programmers, doctors, etc. Filipinos are not killing it in the private sector.

    • Replies: @Langley
    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist's name is SonSon.

    BTW - no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    , @tsotha
    Hah! I noticed that too. You hardly ever see Filipinos where I live, but when you do see them they're behind the counter at the DMV or delivering mail.
  28. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren't expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn't quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren't stars like on the mainland.

    Ah.

    “Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren’t expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy. ”

    This makes sense. The raw data would probably be closer to my own observations.

    As for Asians not being stars in Hawaii – we have no hi-teck firms for them to work at so those who want to and can go to the mainland.

    The local Asians run the banks, and real estate.

    “Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland.”

    The Japanese purposely do not shine in the sky “Deru kui wa utareru.”

    They just got rid a a Ha’Ole governor for refusing to appoint another Japanese democrat to Inouye’s seat when the senator died. Abercrombie appointed his protégée Schatz and was defeated in the Democrat primary. He was replaced by a non-entity named Ige.

    There was a watershed event last month in Hawaii politics. The Japanese Democrats stayed home and refused to vote for Hillary. The Ha’Ole Democrats voted for Bernie.

    There are great stories about politics in Hawaii…

  29. @Buzz Mohawk
    My father was an alcoholic chain smoker who ate lots of red meat. I never knew him not to have a lit cigarette, and he generally held a glass of Scotch in the evening. He taught me how to grill steaks.

    He lived to be 85.

    Greatest Generation, you know.

    It's mostly the genetic lottery.

    One of my neighbors is an Eastern European widow well into her 90's. She regularly attends the Metropolitan Opera; when she's not doing that, she picnics on the local beach with her friends. Once in a while, she will call and ask me to unclog a drain or fix a light or some such thing.

    She has a very positive outlook. She is living life!

    I once asked her, as we all do, what her secret was. She told me she drinks "Stoli" (Stolichnaya vodka) every morning.

    Just have the best time you can. You won't be here long.

    As an old Russian flame liked to tell me, “If you don’t drink and don’t smoke, you’ll just die healthy.”

  30. A lot of the poor in big wealthy cities are lower-middle class misfits, gays, bohemians, etc who are socially very different from the blue collar poor found in small cities and low-income suburban areas. They also walk a lot and, like most people in big cities, don’t tend to eat much.

  31. @Steve Sailer
    Right, we have a lot of panel data sources, like the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1979, which is tracking more than 5,000 children of women in the original 1979 panel. (We now have two generations of IQ scores.) That's a pretty good data source for most of the factors that matter.

    Okay, what Chetty is trying to do is to find towns with brilliant policies that make a big difference in life outcomes. Salt Lake City is doing great, right? So it must be some genius law the city council passed, right? If we could only figure out which law, then every town in America could pass it and we'd all be as healthy and economically prosperous yet equal as the residents of Salt Lake City!

    For this kind of hopes and dreams, you would need a giant sample size like Chetty has. And he has such a huge sample that he actually can find incredibly pointillistic findings. For example, Chetty's data shows that the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation really is the worst place in America to raise your kids, just like that depressing feature article I read in the Saturday Evening Post around 1970 said.

    On the other hand, he hasn't really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting -- like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.

    But Chetty isn't very interested in this minutiae. He's looking for the formula for the Magic Dirt and why it's different from the Tragic Dirt. Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don't move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay ...

    “On the other hand, he hasn’t really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting — like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.”

    When you are in Myrtle Beach you must feel like a kid at Disneyland, or a Filipino at a casino.

    “Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don’t move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay …”

    Should she move to Salt Lake City instead?

  32. @Steve Sailer
    Manhattan would be a good place to be very rich or very poor.

    Indeed. I don’t know how much the New York Times pays him, but this interesting doc (on Netflix until April 15th) shows that one can live a long, frugal life in an “unwelcoming” place if one makes some (to many, deal-breaking) concessions.

    It shows Cunningham traveling through Manhattan by bicycle and living in a tiny apartment in the Carnegie Hall building. The apartment has no closet, kitchen, or private bathroom, and is filled with filing cabinets and boxes of his photographs.

    Bonus: Appearance by Tom Wolfe.

    OT: To take the heat off, Gay Talese should upgrade his name to LGBTQ Talese.

    • Agree: Malcolm X-Lax
  33. @Steve Sailer
    Right, we have a lot of panel data sources, like the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1979, which is tracking more than 5,000 children of women in the original 1979 panel. (We now have two generations of IQ scores.) That's a pretty good data source for most of the factors that matter.

    Okay, what Chetty is trying to do is to find towns with brilliant policies that make a big difference in life outcomes. Salt Lake City is doing great, right? So it must be some genius law the city council passed, right? If we could only figure out which law, then every town in America could pass it and we'd all be as healthy and economically prosperous yet equal as the residents of Salt Lake City!

    For this kind of hopes and dreams, you would need a giant sample size like Chetty has. And he has such a huge sample that he actually can find incredibly pointillistic findings. For example, Chetty's data shows that the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation really is the worst place in America to raise your kids, just like that depressing feature article I read in the Saturday Evening Post around 1970 said.

    On the other hand, he hasn't really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting -- like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.

    But Chetty isn't very interested in this minutiae. He's looking for the formula for the Magic Dirt and why it's different from the Tragic Dirt. Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don't move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay ...

    Too bad those NLSY ’79 participants are still so young and alive! You’re right though, while they have so much information, I don’t think the panel studies with older people have IQ/AFQT scores. Doing this kind of research in like 30 years with NLSY would be ideal. 🙂

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    The oldest NLSY79 participant is just under 60.
  34. NYC residents do a lot of walking, which undoubtedly is good for their health.

  35. @Jefferson
    "My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland."

    Maybe they aren't stars like on the mainland because Filipinos outnumber the Chinese in Hawaii.

    Filipinos are more known for being government employees than they are for being business owners, engineers, computer programmers, doctors, etc. Filipinos are not killing it in the private sector.

    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist’s name is SonSon.

    BTW – no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Really? What are they considered in HI? Hispanic or something else?
    , @Jefferson
    "The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist’s name is SonSon."

    Where did I say the Japanese and Koreans punch below their weight? I am talking about Filipinos.
    , @Jefferson
    "BTW – no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian."

    Filipinos are considered Asian on the mainland.
    , @unpc downunder
    The socio-economic performance of East Asians varies quite a lot from country to country. For example, in New Zealand the unemployment rate for East Asians is about 6 percent, versus about 4 -5 percent for whites and 8-9 percent for Polynesians. There are also a conspiciously high number of educated East Asians in Australia doing menial jobs like cleaning houses and working in supermarkets.

    US East Asians seem to more aggressively career focused than East Asians in other parts of the Pacific rim, and probably have an easier time adapting to the much larger US economy.
  36. OT: Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-violence-spiked-and-arrests-declined-in-chicago-right-after-the-laquan-mcdonald-video-release/

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "OT: Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release"

    Black Lies Matter is nowhere to be seen, because they only believe Black life is precious if it is murdered by a White person. And the gun violence in Chicago is an all Black affair.
  37. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Interesting. I'd also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined.

    The COX sisters, owners of COX network, based in Atlanta and was an early rival of Ted Turner's cable empire, are in their nineties and have lived in Honolulu for a few decades. Always thought that the only white people who could afford to live in HI tended to be quite wealthy as it is also a high cost of living state.

    “Interesting. I’d also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined.”

    Honolulu has a White male homeless population. They look like they came straight out of Woodstock 1969. The only difference is they are more tanned. Most of them are definitely on drugs, marijuana at the minimum if not harder drugs.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    On the big island, (Hawaii) there are ex-60's communes as well as tons of trailer parks for lower market SWPL or the lesser fortunate black sheep of SWPLs. Who was the late 60s early 70's LSD influenced author whom Tom Wolfe was briefly influenced by? Know the one I mean? Richard Bautigan! (googled it) Anyway the pictures in his novels were stereotypical 60s, commune style of living, etc. Well there seems to be a section of the big island that has some whites that live like that.Very strange. Don't know if they're kept away from the tourist areas or what, but its not what one tends to see in Honolulu, Maui etc. But HI also does have some wealthy people living there for part of the year so apparently it must do wonders for them.

    On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children's author great Beverly Cleary's 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She's lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century's all time greats in the field of children's books.

    , @Muse
    When I was in Hawaii, a local told me Hawaii has a roach motel problem with the poor and homeless. They get to the islands and once there, they cannot afford the ticket to leave. In a place like Chicago, the cold kills street people off every year, or they head south for the winter.
  38. @Some Economist
    Too bad those NLSY '79 participants are still so young and alive! You're right though, while they have so much information, I don't think the panel studies with older people have IQ/AFQT scores. Doing this kind of research in like 30 years with NLSY would be ideal. :)

    The oldest NLSY79 participant is just under 60.

  39. @Langley
    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist's name is SonSon.

    BTW - no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    Really? What are they considered in HI? Hispanic or something else?

    • Replies: @Langley
    They are considered Filipinos.

    The Philippine race and culture stands out by itself. If you need a larger grouping you could say Pacific Islander - that "group" is very heterogeneous.

    When a Filipina from the mainland came to UH to teach us about racial diversity and claimed to be Asian everyone looked blank. The Japanese were offended.


    Many do have Hispanic names. Again, my dentist's name is SonSon.

  40. In the absence of heavy pollution, geography probably plays a very small role in life expectancy, a long way behind genes and lifestyle. We may thus just be discussing residual effects here.

    If you think geography is important you will then need to look at living conditions over time. In other words you would have to consider how good or bad a place Las Vegas was 80/60/40/20 years ago to get an idea of the cumulative environmental effect on life expectancy.

    It would be possible (though unlikely) for Chetty’s statistics to encourage people to move to a place that was healthy in the sixties but is now downright toxic.

  41. @Jefferson
    "Interesting. I’d also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined."

    Honolulu has a White male homeless population. They look like they came straight out of Woodstock 1969. The only difference is they are more tanned. Most of them are definitely on drugs, marijuana at the minimum if not harder drugs.

    On the big island, (Hawaii) there are ex-60’s communes as well as tons of trailer parks for lower market SWPL or the lesser fortunate black sheep of SWPLs. Who was the late 60s early 70’s LSD influenced author whom Tom Wolfe was briefly influenced by? Know the one I mean? Richard Bautigan! (googled it) Anyway the pictures in his novels were stereotypical 60s, commune style of living, etc. Well there seems to be a section of the big island that has some whites that live like that.Very strange. Don’t know if they’re kept away from the tourist areas or what, but its not what one tends to see in Honolulu, Maui etc. But HI also does have some wealthy people living there for part of the year so apparently it must do wonders for them.

    On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children’s author great Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She’s lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century’s all time greats in the field of children’s books.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children’s author great Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She’s lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century’s all time greats in the field of children’s books."

    Do you think Beverly Clearly will get a Twitter shout out from the POTUS on her 100th birthday?

  42. @Langley
    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist's name is SonSon.

    BTW - no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    “The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist’s name is SonSon.”

    Where did I say the Japanese and Koreans punch below their weight? I am talking about Filipinos.

  43. @Langley
    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist's name is SonSon.

    BTW - no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    “BTW – no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.”

    Filipinos are considered Asian on the mainland.

  44. My whole outlook on longevity has been irrevocably colored by a single incident. A number of years and jobs ago I worked with a man in his late 40’s who had to be one of the healthiest and fitted people imaginable. He ran marathons, was training for a triathlon, and despite the company’s generous sick leave policy never called in sick. If anyone could be a good candidate for living to 100, it was him.
    Then he got brain cancer and died a hideous death.

    Peter

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    Marathons and other extreme endurance events are extremely stressful and traumatic to the human body. Likewise jogging for long periods of time is probably unhealthy as well. Cardiovascular exercise should be limited to walking and short bouts of intense running. There are some possible links between marathon running and brain damage and brain cancer, along with other health risks:

    http://www.artdevanyonline.com/1/post/2012/12/top-ten-reasons-not-to-run-marathons.html

    5. Marathon running damages your brain. The damage resembles acute brain trauma. Marathon runners have elevated S100beta, a marker of brain damage and blood brain barrier disfunction. There is S100beta again, a marker of cancer and of brain damage.

    ...

    2. At least four particiants of the Boston Marathon have died of brain cancer in the past 10 years. Purely anecdotal, but consistent with the elevated S100beta counts and TKN-alpha measures. Perhaps also connected to the microthrombi of the endothelium found in marathoners.
     
    "New Research Says Endurance Running May Damage Health"

    http://www.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887323975004578501150442565788-lMyQjAxMTAzMDIwNDEyNDQyWj.html?mod=wsj_valettop_email
  45. @t
    OT: Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-violence-spiked-and-arrests-declined-in-chicago-right-after-the-laquan-mcdonald-video-release/

    “OT: Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release”

    Black Lies Matter is nowhere to be seen, because they only believe Black life is precious if it is murdered by a White person. And the gun violence in Chicago is an all Black affair.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    As the R&B song goes, it's a family affair.

    Side note: There is no google doodle today for Beverly Cleary's 100th birthday, one of the US's all time greatest children's authors of the 20th century. They always love to give a day over to a fairly obscure woman creator, inventor, etc. But nothing for Beverly Cleary? Seriously?

    Perhaps sometime later today they'll correct that oversight because that is just inconceivable. Nearly 100 million copies of her books have been sold and nothing from Google? Come on.

  46. @Jim Don Bob
    No. "These are exactly the kind of people that" we need to deport.

    Thanks for the war story.

    “No. ‘These are exactly the kind of people that’ we need to deport.”

    Agreed. And those who are citizens should be given palliative care only.

  47. @Paleo Retiree
    Re Santa Barbara ... As others have noted, a lot of SB's working-class people come in from out of town -- from Goleta, Ventura, Santa Maria and beyond. But, despite the general ritziness of the actual city of SB, there are a couple of genuine working-class neighborhoods in the city itself, as well as a sizable working-class population. East of Milpas Avenue, for example, are block after block of ultracute classic small California houses, like places out of a James M. Cain novel, and the inhabitants are 99% working-class Mexican.

    How and why this is possible -- why haven't these blocks been snatched up by yuppies and such? -- is completely beyond me, but there it is.

    well, just checked out zillow. The prices for SB homes for sale are ridiculous. If there’s any cheap homes for Mexican workers, they don’t show up there. They must be renters with 50 people living in each home.

    Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara. You know how Jerry Brown said normal people can’t get into Berkeley anymore? Well, normal people can’t go buy a house in SB anymore. Something is really messed up and I wish someone would explain it.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara."

    The Sacramento metropolitan area does not even feel like it's part of California. It feels like it's own state.

  48. anon • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    Right, we have a lot of panel data sources, like the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, 1979, which is tracking more than 5,000 children of women in the original 1979 panel. (We now have two generations of IQ scores.) That's a pretty good data source for most of the factors that matter.

    Okay, what Chetty is trying to do is to find towns with brilliant policies that make a big difference in life outcomes. Salt Lake City is doing great, right? So it must be some genius law the city council passed, right? If we could only figure out which law, then every town in America could pass it and we'd all be as healthy and economically prosperous yet equal as the residents of Salt Lake City!

    For this kind of hopes and dreams, you would need a giant sample size like Chetty has. And he has such a huge sample that he actually can find incredibly pointillistic findings. For example, Chetty's data shows that the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation really is the worst place in America to raise your kids, just like that depressing feature article I read in the Saturday Evening Post around 1970 said.

    On the other hand, he hasn't really found the Magic Dirt. He keeps finding out stuff that I find interesting -- like the Myrtle Beach golf resort area was a great place for the working class in the late 1990s, but it was a terrible place for their now adult kids in 2011-2012, because the great recession killed golf construction. I find this local real estate stuff interesting probably because I know a whole lot about golf courses so I can picture what the countryside looks like, and recall when it was glamorous, and so forth.

    But Chetty isn't very interested in this minutiae. He's looking for the formula for the Magic Dirt and why it's different from the Tragic Dirt. Instead, he keeps finding data that tells him stuff like: if you are a poor black lady with young sons, don't move to gang-infested towns like Baltimore. Okay ...

    I think Dr. Chetty is trying to become a socio-economist like Prof. Amartya Sen. Prof. Sen also started studying poverty, mainly in developing countries, but later developed fundamental theories of welfare economics, social choice theory etc.,

    The phenomenon of high white death rates is attracting attention. David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Washington Post has a graphic story on Anna Marrie Jones, a prototypical early white death victim.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/a-premature-and-unnatural-death-in-rural-oklahoma/2016/04/08/7888a74c-f079-11e5-89c3-a647fcce95e0_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

    The pictures seem to support French’s hypothesis that the crisis is one of spirit rather than money.

    • Replies: @Jesse
    "David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one."

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Quelle surprise, a Nat. Rev. cuck wants to blame it all on the people being affected by the policies he and his have been cheerleading for the past few decades.
  49. @Jefferson
    "OT: Gun Violence Spiked — And Arrests Declined — In Chicago Right After The Laquan McDonald Video Release"

    Black Lies Matter is nowhere to be seen, because they only believe Black life is precious if it is murdered by a White person. And the gun violence in Chicago is an all Black affair.

    As the R&B song goes, it’s a family affair.

    Side note: There is no google doodle today for Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday, one of the US’s all time greatest children’s authors of the 20th century. They always love to give a day over to a fairly obscure woman creator, inventor, etc. But nothing for Beverly Cleary? Seriously?

    Perhaps sometime later today they’ll correct that oversight because that is just inconceivable. Nearly 100 million copies of her books have been sold and nothing from Google? Come on.

  50. @Steve Sailer
    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it's saying that living in a "commuting zone" with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty's methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It's not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

    “No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it’s saying that living in a “commuting zone” with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.”

    As Paleo retiree alluded:
    High Income Segregation == Progressive (read Machine) Politics == Social Safety Hammock

  51. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    On the big island, (Hawaii) there are ex-60's communes as well as tons of trailer parks for lower market SWPL or the lesser fortunate black sheep of SWPLs. Who was the late 60s early 70's LSD influenced author whom Tom Wolfe was briefly influenced by? Know the one I mean? Richard Bautigan! (googled it) Anyway the pictures in his novels were stereotypical 60s, commune style of living, etc. Well there seems to be a section of the big island that has some whites that live like that.Very strange. Don't know if they're kept away from the tourist areas or what, but its not what one tends to see in Honolulu, Maui etc. But HI also does have some wealthy people living there for part of the year so apparently it must do wonders for them.

    On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children's author great Beverly Cleary's 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She's lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century's all time greats in the field of children's books.

    “On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children’s author great Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She’s lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century’s all time greats in the field of children’s books.”

    Do you think Beverly Clearly will get a Twitter shout out from the POTUS on her 100th birthday?

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Come on. If he's familiar with her at all it would most likely have been thru his wife, who probably made sure not to indoctrinate their kids with her novels that centered around the mid. to late 20th century white suburban middle class.

    Of all people, it would be former librarian Laura Bush who definitely would have made a very public recognition of Cleary and perhaps invited her to the White House.

    , @Boomstick
    Bev Cleary grew up in Oregon but has been in Carmel/Pacific Grove on the Monterey Peninsula since shortly after WW2. So maybe it's proximity to magic sand traps that accounts for her longevity.
  52. @Formerly CARealist
    well, just checked out zillow. The prices for SB homes for sale are ridiculous. If there's any cheap homes for Mexican workers, they don't show up there. They must be renters with 50 people living in each home.

    Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara. You know how Jerry Brown said normal people can't get into Berkeley anymore? Well, normal people can't go buy a house in SB anymore. Something is really messed up and I wish someone would explain it.

    “Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara.”

    The Sacramento metropolitan area does not even feel like it’s part of California. It feels like it’s own state.

    • Replies: @Verylongaccountname
    There seem to be a fair number of 1200-1300 square foot houses in Santa Barbara on sale for $500-600K. That isn't much more expensive then Davis, is it? From zillow it seems like the same houses would go for $450-550K there. Maybe a little less. I assume the other upscale Sacramento suburbs are similar to Davis in price.
  53. @Jefferson
    "On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children’s author great Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She’s lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century’s all time greats in the field of children’s books."

    Do you think Beverly Clearly will get a Twitter shout out from the POTUS on her 100th birthday?

    Come on. If he’s familiar with her at all it would most likely have been thru his wife, who probably made sure not to indoctrinate their kids with her novels that centered around the mid. to late 20th century white suburban middle class.

    Of all people, it would be former librarian Laura Bush who definitely would have made a very public recognition of Cleary and perhaps invited her to the White House.

  54. @Steve Sailer
    There aren't big differences in life expectancy among the well to do from place to place, but there is a modest pattern of lower life expectancy among the well-off in more hedonistic places like Las Vegas, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu.

    Maybe it's just more melanoma? Among the bottom 10 of 100 biggest metros, eight of the ten are in very sunny places. The other two are Rust Belt pits -- Gary and Youngstown -- where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    None of the places where the affluent live the shortest are very bookish.

    The other two are Rust Belt pits — Gary and Youngstown — where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    Pollution? Haha. Spoken like a true Californian. 🙂

    Chetty’s data is skewed by old-guard union guys that weren’t on the ball enough to save-up and move to FL to retire. Or those same whose children didn’t move away for greener pastures (ie. left-hand of the bell curve).

    Believe me, as one that grew up in the “Gary commuting zone”, it was drilled into my head from before kindergarten: “you will go off to college and never come back.” As I got older I realized this was as much for them, they didn’t want to hang around a day longer than they had to, as for me.

    I was hardly alone with that messaging.

  55. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @prosa123
    My whole outlook on longevity has been irrevocably colored by a single incident. A number of years and jobs ago I worked with a man in his late 40's who had to be one of the healthiest and fitted people imaginable. He ran marathons, was training for a triathlon, and despite the company's generous sick leave policy never called in sick. If anyone could be a good candidate for living to 100, it was him.
    Then he got brain cancer and died a hideous death.

    Peter

    Marathons and other extreme endurance events are extremely stressful and traumatic to the human body. Likewise jogging for long periods of time is probably unhealthy as well. Cardiovascular exercise should be limited to walking and short bouts of intense running. There are some possible links between marathon running and brain damage and brain cancer, along with other health risks:

    http://www.artdevanyonline.com/1/post/2012/12/top-ten-reasons-not-to-run-marathons.html

    5. Marathon running damages your brain. The damage resembles acute brain trauma. Marathon runners have elevated S100beta, a marker of brain damage and blood brain barrier disfunction. There is S100beta again, a marker of cancer and of brain damage.

    2. At least four particiants of the Boston Marathon have died of brain cancer in the past 10 years. Purely anecdotal, but consistent with the elevated S100beta counts and TKN-alpha measures. Perhaps also connected to the microthrombi of the endothelium found in marathoners.

    “New Research Says Endurance Running May Damage Health”

    http://www.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424127887323975004578501150442565788-lMyQjAxMTAzMDIwNDEyNDQyWj.html?mod=wsj_valettop_email

  56. @Paleo Retiree
    Re Santa Barbara ... As others have noted, a lot of SB's working-class people come in from out of town -- from Goleta, Ventura, Santa Maria and beyond. But, despite the general ritziness of the actual city of SB, there are a couple of genuine working-class neighborhoods in the city itself, as well as a sizable working-class population. East of Milpas Avenue, for example, are block after block of ultracute classic small California houses, like places out of a James M. Cain novel, and the inhabitants are 99% working-class Mexican.

    How and why this is possible -- why haven't these blocks been snatched up by yuppies and such? -- is completely beyond me, but there it is.

    How and why this is possible — why haven’t these blocks[east of Milpas St, in Santa Barbara] been snatched up by yuppies and such? — is completely beyond me, but there it is.

    Santa Barbara has some kind of property tax law where the rates can’t rise if you’ve owned for long enough. I think that’s what allows the old-timers to stay, and stay poor, around here. I think. Google is not being kind. And I’m too lazy to walk upstairs and ask my landlord (long time owner here in SB).

  57. @Jefferson
    "My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren’t stars like on the mainland."

    Maybe they aren't stars like on the mainland because Filipinos outnumber the Chinese in Hawaii.

    Filipinos are more known for being government employees than they are for being business owners, engineers, computer programmers, doctors, etc. Filipinos are not killing it in the private sector.

    Hah! I noticed that too. You hardly ever see Filipinos where I live, but when you do see them they’re behind the counter at the DMV or delivering mail.

  58. @Jefferson
    "On a lighter note, relating to the elderly. Children’s author great Beverly Cleary’s 100th birthday is tomorrow. Probably most everyone here including Steve has read a Beverly Cleary novel when they were growing up or in their pre-teen years. She’s lived the bulk of her life in OR so whatever it was that she was doing all these years certainly worked out in her case.

    Happy 100th Birthday, Beverly. One of the 20th century’s all time greats in the field of children’s books."

    Do you think Beverly Clearly will get a Twitter shout out from the POTUS on her 100th birthday?

    Bev Cleary grew up in Oregon but has been in Carmel/Pacific Grove on the Monterey Peninsula since shortly after WW2. So maybe it’s proximity to magic sand traps that accounts for her longevity.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    True that. And still no Google Doodle for her today on her 100th birthday.
  59. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Really? What are they considered in HI? Hispanic or something else?

    They are considered Filipinos.

    The Philippine race and culture stands out by itself. If you need a larger grouping you could say Pacific Islander – that “group” is very heterogeneous.

    When a Filipina from the mainland came to UH to teach us about racial diversity and claimed to be Asian everyone looked blank. The Japanese were offended.

    Many do have Hispanic names. Again, my dentist’s name is SonSon.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Well of course, there is a pecking order in Asian nations particularly among NE Asia with the Japan, China, and Korea at the top of the totem pole. Wasn't the Philippines conquered by Japan during WW2? But racially, the Philippines are South Asia and usually at the bottom of the heap as compared to the others (China, Japan, Korea).

    In point of fact, on the mainland, a case could be made to lump Filipinos in with Hispanics as they were a colony of Spain for nearly 300yrs. If you listen closely, many also have Hispanic sounding accents.

    It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain.

    , @Twinkie
    From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii#Race_and_ethnicity

    Hawaii's Asian population consists mainly of 198,000 (14.6%) Filipino Americans, 185,000 (13.6%) Japanese Americans, roughly 55,000 (4.0%) Chinese Americans, and 24,000 (1.8%) Korean Americans.
     
    Filipinos form a very large chunk of the Asian population in Hawaii - in fact, they form the largest ancestry group in Hawaii, period (followed by Japanese, Polynesian, German, Irish, English, Portuguese, Chinese, Korean, Mexican, etc.).
  60. @Langley
    They are considered Filipinos.

    The Philippine race and culture stands out by itself. If you need a larger grouping you could say Pacific Islander - that "group" is very heterogeneous.

    When a Filipina from the mainland came to UH to teach us about racial diversity and claimed to be Asian everyone looked blank. The Japanese were offended.


    Many do have Hispanic names. Again, my dentist's name is SonSon.

    Well of course, there is a pecking order in Asian nations particularly among NE Asia with the Japan, China, and Korea at the top of the totem pole. Wasn’t the Philippines conquered by Japan during WW2? But racially, the Philippines are South Asia and usually at the bottom of the heap as compared to the others (China, Japan, Korea).

    In point of fact, on the mainland, a case could be made to lump Filipinos in with Hispanics as they were a colony of Spain for nearly 300yrs. If you listen closely, many also have Hispanic sounding accents.

    It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    The Japanese in Hawaii are not like modern native Japanese. They came several generations ago as farm labor, on the same basis as Mexicans came to the US. They are more upwardly mobile than Mexicans but they started from a low position in society. Likewise, the pre-WWII stereotype of Japanese in California was the Japanese gardener. No rich person's estate was complete without a Japanese gardener - again the same ecological niche is occupied by Hispanics today. We think of Japan as being a rich country but not that long ago it was quite poor and was an exporter of immigrant labor, not just to Hawaii but to Peru, Brazil, etc.
    , @Jefferson
    "It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain."

    If you see a Filipino with a Hispanic looking phenotype, 9 times out of 10 she or he is half White.

    The vast majority of Pinoys with 2 Filipino parents have Malay/Austronesian looking phenotypes.

    Filipina American Republican Michelle Malkin has said that her daughters are often mistaken for being Hispanic and that is because the father of her daughters is a White Jew.

    White/Filipino mixes often produce Mestizo looking phenotypes hence why they are mistaken for Hispanics.

    Mestizo Hispanic looking phenotypes are disproportionately overrepresented in Filipino soap operas, because they are seen as more attractive than Malay/Austronesian phenotypes.

  61. @Boomstick
    Bev Cleary grew up in Oregon but has been in Carmel/Pacific Grove on the Monterey Peninsula since shortly after WW2. So maybe it's proximity to magic sand traps that accounts for her longevity.

    True that. And still no Google Doodle for her today on her 100th birthday.

    • Replies: @Galactic Overlord
    Probably because she's still alive. AFAIK, Google only features named individuals in doodles after they have died.
  62. @Jefferson
    "Seriously, for what you could get here in a nice suburb of Sac for 350k will cost you nearly one million in Santa Barbara."

    The Sacramento metropolitan area does not even feel like it's part of California. It feels like it's own state.

    There seem to be a fair number of 1200-1300 square foot houses in Santa Barbara on sale for $500-600K. That isn’t much more expensive then Davis, is it? From zillow it seems like the same houses would go for $450-550K there. Maybe a little less. I assume the other upscale Sacramento suburbs are similar to Davis in price.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    "Santa Barbara market trends indicate an increase of $216,750 (24%) in median home sales over the past year. The average price per square foot for this same period rose to $708, up from $618."

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Santa_Barbara-California/market-trends/

    A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks.

    , @Formerly CARealist
    I just sold a 1200 square foot home in Citrus Heights for 240k. It's in a nice little neighborhood on its way up. 350k will get you something much nicer and bigger in CH. I don't know about Davis prices. Too many flies there for me.
  63. Off topic, but I was just watching this clip of a bare-chested Roy Schneider doing pushups in the 1976 movie Marathon Man:

    For a dude who is being presented to the audience as fit and strong, he is surprisingly non-muscular by today’s Hollywood standards. I think Steve is right about rampant steriod use in Hollywood.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    For a dude who is being presented to the audience as fit and strong, he is surprisingly non-muscular by today’s Hollywood standards. I think Steve is right about rampant steriod use in Hollywood.
     
    Roy Scheider's physique was more realistic. Besides, in the past, men were judged by their toughness, not show muscularity.

    The way Daniel Craig looked in his first Bond film, for example, was cartoonish - that kind of mass would seriously tax the cardiovascular system, and wouldn't be much good for any kind of real sustained combat.
  64. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Steve Sailer
    No, I think (although I could be wrong) that it's saying that living in a "commuting zone" with more income segregation (e.g., poor live with poor, rich live with rich) correlates with the poor living longer. Maybe I have this backwards, I dunno.

    But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.

    A big question I still have about Chetty's methodology is how he handles people moving, which people do all the time. It's not at all a priori clear how to treat somebody who works in a big city and dies in a small town.

    “But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die.”

    $15/hour under the table to clean houses for rich people in Manhattan sounds awfully low, doesn’t it?

    • Replies: @Paul Walker Most beautiful man ever...
    "$15/hour under the table to clean houses for rich people in Manhattan sounds awfully low, doesn’t it?".
    How do you think they got rich?
  65. @Langley
    They are considered Filipinos.

    The Philippine race and culture stands out by itself. If you need a larger grouping you could say Pacific Islander - that "group" is very heterogeneous.

    When a Filipina from the mainland came to UH to teach us about racial diversity and claimed to be Asian everyone looked blank. The Japanese were offended.


    Many do have Hispanic names. Again, my dentist's name is SonSon.

    From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii#Race_and_ethnicity

    Hawaii’s Asian population consists mainly of 198,000 (14.6%) Filipino Americans, 185,000 (13.6%) Japanese Americans, roughly 55,000 (4.0%) Chinese Americans, and 24,000 (1.8%) Korean Americans.

    Filipinos form a very large chunk of the Asian population in Hawaii – in fact, they form the largest ancestry group in Hawaii, period (followed by Japanese, Polynesian, German, Irish, English, Portuguese, Chinese, Korean, Mexican, etc.).

    • Replies: @Langley
    Again - no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha'Ole do.
    , @Langley
    Again - no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha'Ole do.
  66. Social justice warriors in Liverpool created a fake anti-Black racism scenario.

    If anti-Black racism is as rampant in real life as the Left claims it is, they don’t need to create these ridiculous fake scenarios.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    You know what they're doing, come on. They're "nipping it in the bud" in case any whites that hold any independent thoughts not approved by them start noticing things. And, SJWs can't allow for too much noticing going on out there.
    , @semaphore
    If racially-motivated crime is an additional category of offense, a "hate crime" in the irony-proof Orwellian parlance, then shouldn't racism entrapment be prohibited as well? Someone hoaxes you into appearing racist, at least you'd be entitled to some regulatory language buttressing a civil suit.

    Racism insurance?

  67. @Verylongaccountname
    There seem to be a fair number of 1200-1300 square foot houses in Santa Barbara on sale for $500-600K. That isn't much more expensive then Davis, is it? From zillow it seems like the same houses would go for $450-550K there. Maybe a little less. I assume the other upscale Sacramento suburbs are similar to Davis in price.

    “Santa Barbara market trends indicate an increase of $216,750 (24%) in median home sales over the past year. The average price per square foot for this same period rose to $708, up from $618.”

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Santa_Barbara-California/market-trends/

    A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks.

    • Replies: @Boomstick
    With 10% down that works out to over $5K/mo for mortgage, taxes, insurance, and upkeep, even with the current rock bottom interest rates. Median household income in Santa Barbara is around $70K. An income of over $200K is required to get a mortgage in that range.

    I suspect we're headed for yet another unpleasant real estate event. With a burn rate that high not many people have the savings needed to ride out a job loss, even in a two income family.
    , @Jefferson
    "A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks."

    Ric Flair purchased a 4 bathroom, 4 bedroom home in Charlotte, North Carolina for $925,000.

    Can you imagine how much a 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home would cost in Santa Barbara?
  68. @Twinkie
    From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii#Race_and_ethnicity

    Hawaii's Asian population consists mainly of 198,000 (14.6%) Filipino Americans, 185,000 (13.6%) Japanese Americans, roughly 55,000 (4.0%) Chinese Americans, and 24,000 (1.8%) Korean Americans.
     
    Filipinos form a very large chunk of the Asian population in Hawaii - in fact, they form the largest ancestry group in Hawaii, period (followed by Japanese, Polynesian, German, Irish, English, Portuguese, Chinese, Korean, Mexican, etc.).

    Again – no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha’Ole do.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Again – no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha’Ole do.
     
    It doesn't matter what you or I "think" - for statistical purposes Filipinos are categorized as Asian, and form the plurality ancestry group in Hawaii.
  69. @Twinkie
    From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii#Race_and_ethnicity

    Hawaii's Asian population consists mainly of 198,000 (14.6%) Filipino Americans, 185,000 (13.6%) Japanese Americans, roughly 55,000 (4.0%) Chinese Americans, and 24,000 (1.8%) Korean Americans.
     
    Filipinos form a very large chunk of the Asian population in Hawaii - in fact, they form the largest ancestry group in Hawaii, period (followed by Japanese, Polynesian, German, Irish, English, Portuguese, Chinese, Korean, Mexican, etc.).

    Again – no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha’Ole do.

  70. @sabril
    Off topic, but I was just watching this clip of a bare-chested Roy Schneider doing pushups in the 1976 movie Marathon Man:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asGnaw3vSCU

    For a dude who is being presented to the audience as fit and strong, he is surprisingly non-muscular by today's Hollywood standards. I think Steve is right about rampant steriod use in Hollywood.

    For a dude who is being presented to the audience as fit and strong, he is surprisingly non-muscular by today’s Hollywood standards. I think Steve is right about rampant steriod use in Hollywood.

    Roy Scheider’s physique was more realistic. Besides, in the past, men were judged by their toughness, not show muscularity.

    The way Daniel Craig looked in his first Bond film, for example, was cartoonish – that kind of mass would seriously tax the cardiovascular system, and wouldn’t be much good for any kind of real sustained combat.

    • Replies: @Psmith
    I can't let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5'10", 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity...man, go to a gym that isn't in a country club sometime.
  71. @Anonymous
    "But if I have it right, think of it like this: you come to New York from Mexico or China to get a job working for some rich person on the Upper East Side. You have to commute 75 minutes each way from a poor neighborhood on the far side of Queens and then you clean house all day in the richest neighborhood in America. But you get paid $15/hour in cash and only report half that to the IRS. After a number of years, you are tired but you have some money saved up, so you move to a cheaper place to relax, where you die."

    $15/hour under the table to clean houses for rich people in Manhattan sounds awfully low, doesn't it?

    “$15/hour under the table to clean houses for rich people in Manhattan sounds awfully low, doesn’t it?”.
    How do you think they got rich?

  72. The reasons for long life are obvious and banal:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Zone

    You don’t have to inflict Chetty on yourself to understand these things.

  73. @Steve Sailer
    "Santa Barbara market trends indicate an increase of $216,750 (24%) in median home sales over the past year. The average price per square foot for this same period rose to $708, up from $618."

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Santa_Barbara-California/market-trends/

    A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks.

    With 10% down that works out to over $5K/mo for mortgage, taxes, insurance, and upkeep, even with the current rock bottom interest rates. Median household income in Santa Barbara is around $70K. An income of over $200K is required to get a mortgage in that range.

    I suspect we’re headed for yet another unpleasant real estate event. With a burn rate that high not many people have the savings needed to ride out a job loss, even in a two income family.

  74. @Steve Sailer
    "Santa Barbara market trends indicate an increase of $216,750 (24%) in median home sales over the past year. The average price per square foot for this same period rose to $708, up from $618."

    http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Santa_Barbara-California/market-trends/

    A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks.

    “A typical small house in Santa Barbara is more like a million bucks.”

    Ric Flair purchased a 4 bathroom, 4 bedroom home in Charlotte, North Carolina for $925,000.

    Can you imagine how much a 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home would cost in Santa Barbara?

  75. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    True that. And still no Google Doodle for her today on her 100th birthday.

    Probably because she’s still alive. AFAIK, Google only features named individuals in doodles after they have died.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Not always, this is a special occasion. It's for her 100th birthday. Also, they could simply make a doodle of Ramona Quimby and Henry Huggins, her two most famous literary characters in the shape of "100", something along those lines. It's Google, they can do whatever they want.
  76. @Steve Sailer
    Chetty is pre-adjusting for race based on national averages. Honolulu has tons of Asians who live a long time in the U.S. and few blacks, who aren't expected by Chetty to have long life expectancy.

    So, the relativistic bar for Honolulu is already raised by Chetty, and then it doesn't quite live up to the high expectations based on its racial makeup.

    My vague impression is that Asians in Hawaii tend to be less socioeconomically elite than in, say, Texas, where they tend to be there for higher ed-related reasons. Asians do fine in Hawaii, but they aren't stars like on the mainland.

    I’d bet that much of that is cultural. Lots of Hawaii Asian-Americans are 3rd+ generation. More into surfing than cramming.

    Japanese-Americans in California are no more likely than White Californians to score in the 98th percentile of the PSAT. The other Asian subgroups are massively more likely. Some of that certainly reflects the selective nature of Asian migration (especially to Silicon Valley), but I’d bet there’s a cultural component too.

    • Replies: @Jack D
    Having the kind of work ethic that you need to do really well on a rigorous standardized test is a 1st generation immigrant thing that mostly wears off in later generations. I once attended an event for parents of kids who had qualified for the Johns Hopkins Study of Exceptional Talent. You qualify by getting over 700 on either the math or verbal section of the SAT (usually math). Before your 13th birthday. Most of the kids were Asian and of the ones who were Asian, every single one of the parents was foreign born - some barely spoke Engrish. American Jews have mostly disappeared from the math competitions that they used to dominate, replaced by Asians.

    What happens in later generations is that the kids fall into white society (often intermarrying) but mostly into the "Belmont" side of white society, not the "Fishtown" side.

  77. The map below tells you all you really need to know:

    Poor + high crime + high population density + crap diet + poor air quality = short life expectancy.

    These factors are most strongly present in Glasgow.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect

    Aberdeenshire is really rich, but they die young because they deep fry pizza. People live a long time in the Cotswolds, because they do not recoil at the sight of fresh fruit (unlike Scots).

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/lifeexpectancyatbirthandatage65bylocalareasintheunitedkingdom/2014-04-16

    Scroll down for the map.

    Beyond that the main factors are, as always, genetic. People who live in rural Sussex have the genetic make-up you need to by a house there, unlike the physically tiny and misshapen denizens of the Medway.

    There are also places like the Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica where people have the genes that allow them to live forever. It’s a nice place. I recommend it. Puntarenas is the perfect Third World city – safe, clean and pleasant. The locals despise visitors from the Central Valley because they throw trash and call them comehuevos.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    How about the island of Ibiza? Supposed to be young, hip, and hopping with tons of tourists and its in the Mediterranean. Supposed to be a fun place. Wonder what the life expectancy is in a place like Ibiza?
  78. The Brady Bunch’s Hawaiian episodes really put the island on the map from a pop culture standpoint.

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    Book 'em Danno!
  79. White males are obsolete and need to be thrown out of the gene pool like 1-month old trash, xoxo from a high IQ Asian male.

  80. @anon
    I think Dr. Chetty is trying to become a socio-economist like Prof. Amartya Sen. Prof. Sen also started studying poverty, mainly in developing countries, but later developed fundamental theories of welfare economics, social choice theory etc.,

    The phenomenon of high white death rates is attracting attention. David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Washington Post has a graphic story on Anna Marrie Jones, a prototypical early white death victim.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/classic-apps/a-premature-and-unnatural-death-in-rural-oklahoma/2016/04/08/7888a74c-f079-11e5-89c3-a647fcce95e0_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

    The pictures seem to support French's hypothesis that the crisis is one of spirit rather than money.

    “David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one.”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Quelle surprise, a Nat. Rev. cuck wants to blame it all on the people being affected by the policies he and his have been cheerleading for the past few decades.

    • Replies: @epebble
    I think the word "spiritual" may be a joke on the pictures of vodka sipping Oklahomans. Those pictures look so similar to scenes when Soviet Union dissolved. I wonder if the economic changes afoot here are similar to what happened to Russians in the 1990s.
  81. @Jefferson
    "Interesting. I’d also be curious to see how whites in general fare in Honolulu or in the state of Hawaii. It does have some famous residents, including Marc Zuckerberg, who apparently purchased close to 500k acres on one of the islands. In other words, some findings that do separate out race by these areas that Chetty has examined."

    Honolulu has a White male homeless population. They look like they came straight out of Woodstock 1969. The only difference is they are more tanned. Most of them are definitely on drugs, marijuana at the minimum if not harder drugs.

    When I was in Hawaii, a local told me Hawaii has a roach motel problem with the poor and homeless. They get to the islands and once there, they cannot afford the ticket to leave. In a place like Chicago, the cold kills street people off every year, or they head south for the winter.

  82. @Jefferson
    The Brady Bunch's Hawaiian episodes really put the island on the map from a pop culture standpoint.

    Book ’em Danno!

  83. @Jim Don Bob
    No. "These are exactly the kind of people that" we need to deport.

    Thanks for the war story.

    Depending on what city or town you are in, the emergency room scene that ATX Hipster is describing is on average roughly 1/3 Hispanic, 1/3 black and 1/3 lower class white. So even if we were to deport every one of the Hispanics (some of whom are already citizens or who were born here) that would leave the ER still 2/3 full. It would certainly help but it wouldn’t mean that our problems are over.

    • Agree: ATX Hipster
  84. @Steve Sailer
    There aren't big differences in life expectancy among the well to do from place to place, but there is a modest pattern of lower life expectancy among the well-off in more hedonistic places like Las Vegas, Miami, Los Angeles, and Honolulu.

    Maybe it's just more melanoma? Among the bottom 10 of 100 biggest metros, eight of the ten are in very sunny places. The other two are Rust Belt pits -- Gary and Youngstown -- where lingering industrial pollution from the good old days when there were jobs might be a problem.

    None of the places where the affluent live the shortest are very bookish.

    I think there is a difference between the “age in place” cities and the “places where you go to retire” cities. For the latter, a lot of the older people have spent their working life in high stress environments and are pretty beat up by the time they get to retirement paradise, shortening their remaining lifespan. Also, the people in retirement havens have less of a social network – their kids are still up North somewhere and they aren’t that close to them to begin with or else they wouldn’t have moved away. Having a strong social network is helpful in prolonging longevity.

  85. @Verylongaccountname
    There seem to be a fair number of 1200-1300 square foot houses in Santa Barbara on sale for $500-600K. That isn't much more expensive then Davis, is it? From zillow it seems like the same houses would go for $450-550K there. Maybe a little less. I assume the other upscale Sacramento suburbs are similar to Davis in price.

    I just sold a 1200 square foot home in Citrus Heights for 240k. It’s in a nice little neighborhood on its way up. 350k will get you something much nicer and bigger in CH. I don’t know about Davis prices. Too many flies there for me.

  86. @Twinkie

    For a dude who is being presented to the audience as fit and strong, he is surprisingly non-muscular by today’s Hollywood standards. I think Steve is right about rampant steriod use in Hollywood.
     
    Roy Scheider's physique was more realistic. Besides, in the past, men were judged by their toughness, not show muscularity.

    The way Daniel Craig looked in his first Bond film, for example, was cartoonish - that kind of mass would seriously tax the cardiovascular system, and wouldn't be much good for any kind of real sustained combat.

    I can’t let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5’10”, 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity…man, go to a gym that isn’t in a country club sometime.

    • Agree: ATX Hipster
    • Replies: @Psmith
    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5'11", 190 (clinically overweight!): http://publications.amsus.org/doi/pdf/10.7205/MILMED-D-02-2008

    Note that this is higher than in the non-SF units. Note that this is an average, not a maximum.
    , @Dirk Dagger

    I can't let this go.
     
    Good! The "I'm superior because ..." homily (with a boatload of unverifiable biographical assertions/anecdotes) you'll get in response is always comedy gold educational. We need instruction from our betters. Totally not boring or predictable.
    , @Twinkie

    I can’t let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight?
     
    1. Who is talking about collegiate wrestler or MMA guy? I was talking about Hollywood show muscles, specifically Daniel Craig as an example: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_oc2VXsJFz4/TcmeUFHzDLI/AAAAAAAAD5c/A8HkEkHOwAg/s1600/daniel-craig-james-bond-swimsuit-01122011-07-820x1091.jpg

    2. Also, Hollywood actors who bulk up for films do not do the same exercises as college wrestlers or MMA fighters. The goal of Hollywood actors is to look as cinematically muscular as possible. The goal of wrestlers and MMA fighters is to have functional strength for their sports, which they can then sustain for the duration of their sports (which is generally short). I guarantee you Daniel Craig was not lifting up or hammering tires. In fact, fighters such as Cain Velasquez and the Diaz brothers are known for their phenomenal pace/cardio (the Diaz brothers do triathlons besides Brazilian Jujitsu, Boxing, and MMA), and they do not have Hollywood muscles (Cain looks "pudgy," probably due to his diet, and the Diaz brothers are very gaunt-looking, or as the well-known Russian physical trainer Pavel Tsatsouline would say "have the wiry-strength look").

    3. Furthermore, physical attributes for college wrestlers and MMA fighters, who put out a certain set of functional strength over a short period of time, are not necessarily the optimal attributes for sustained combat. In real combat, you hump a lot of gear, often go without rest or food, and sometimes have to negotiate rough terrain in conjunction with the said gear and lack of rest.

    man, go to a gym that isn’t in a country club sometime.
     
    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don't do "country clubs" - I don't play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.
    , @Dirk Dagger

    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don’t do “country clubs” – I don’t play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.
     
    Well I guess your hash is settled. How'd that feel sissy boy?
  87. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Well of course, there is a pecking order in Asian nations particularly among NE Asia with the Japan, China, and Korea at the top of the totem pole. Wasn't the Philippines conquered by Japan during WW2? But racially, the Philippines are South Asia and usually at the bottom of the heap as compared to the others (China, Japan, Korea).

    In point of fact, on the mainland, a case could be made to lump Filipinos in with Hispanics as they were a colony of Spain for nearly 300yrs. If you listen closely, many also have Hispanic sounding accents.

    It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain.

    The Japanese in Hawaii are not like modern native Japanese. They came several generations ago as farm labor, on the same basis as Mexicans came to the US. They are more upwardly mobile than Mexicans but they started from a low position in society. Likewise, the pre-WWII stereotype of Japanese in California was the Japanese gardener. No rich person’s estate was complete without a Japanese gardener – again the same ecological niche is occupied by Hispanics today. We think of Japan as being a rich country but not that long ago it was quite poor and was an exporter of immigrant labor, not just to Hawaii but to Peru, Brazil, etc.

  88. @JohnnyWalker123
    I'd bet that much of that is cultural. Lots of Hawaii Asian-Americans are 3rd+ generation. More into surfing than cramming.

    Japanese-Americans in California are no more likely than White Californians to score in the 98th percentile of the PSAT. The other Asian subgroups are massively more likely. Some of that certainly reflects the selective nature of Asian migration (especially to Silicon Valley), but I'd bet there's a cultural component too.

    Having the kind of work ethic that you need to do really well on a rigorous standardized test is a 1st generation immigrant thing that mostly wears off in later generations. I once attended an event for parents of kids who had qualified for the Johns Hopkins Study of Exceptional Talent. You qualify by getting over 700 on either the math or verbal section of the SAT (usually math). Before your 13th birthday. Most of the kids were Asian and of the ones who were Asian, every single one of the parents was foreign born – some barely spoke Engrish. American Jews have mostly disappeared from the math competitions that they used to dominate, replaced by Asians.

    What happens in later generations is that the kids fall into white society (often intermarrying) but mostly into the “Belmont” side of white society, not the “Fishtown” side.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    They wouldn't make it very long in the Fishtown section, and probably would have the crap kicked out of them by LaSharqueenus or Marquis. After all, there are many Fishtowns that now contain a growing number of Marquis.
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    Life is competitive in East Asia and India. So the children get raised in very academic, competitive households. Life is less competitive in America, so the Asian kids go "soft" after a couple generations. We see this with Hawaii Asians and also Japanese-Americans.

    With Jews, this has already taken place. Ron Unz noted the spectacular collapse in Jewish achievement in his article.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/


    The U.S. Math Olympiad began in 1974, and all the names of the top scoring students are easily available on the Internet. During the 1970s, well over 40 percent of the total were Jewish, and during the 1980s and 1990s, the fraction averaged about one-third. However, during the thirteen years since 2000, just two names out of 78 or 2.5 percent appear to be Jewish. The Putnam Exam is the most difficult and prestigious mathematics competition for American college students, with five or six Putnam winners having been selected each year since 1938. Over 40 percent of the Putnam winners prior to 1950 were Jewish, and during every decade from the 1950s through the 1990s, between 22 percent and 31 percent of the winners seem to have come from that same ethnic background. But since 2000, the percentage has dropped to under 10 percent, without a single likely Jewish name in the last seven years.

    This consistent picture of stark ethnic decline recurs when we examine the statistics for the Science Talent Search, which has been selecting 40 students as national finalists for America’s most prestigious high school science award since 1942, thus providing a huge statistical dataset of over 2800 top science students. During every decade from the 1950s through the 1980s, Jewish students were consistently 22–23 percent of the recipients, with the percentage then declining to 17 percent in the 1990s, 15 percent in the 2000s, and just 7 percent since 2010. Indeed, of the thirty top ranked students over the last three years, only a single one seems likely to have been Jewish. Similarly, Jews were over one-quarter of the top students in the Physics Olympiad from 1986 to 1997, but have fallen to just 5 percent over the last decade, a result which must surely send Richard Feynman spinning in his grave.

     

  89. @Psmith
    I can't let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5'10", 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity...man, go to a gym that isn't in a country club sometime.

    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5’11”, 190 (clinically overweight!): http://publications.amsus.org/doi/pdf/10.7205/MILMED-D-02-2008

    Note that this is higher than in the non-SF units. Note that this is an average, not a maximum.

    • Replies: @ATX Hipster
    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.
    , @Twinkie

    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5’11″, 190 (clinically overweight!)
     
    BMI doesn't measure physique or weight/muscle distribution in the body. It certainly doesn't measure cardiovascular capacity.

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don't do well in the Army Special Forces selection process - they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka "The Trek" when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).

    The human body can adapt to many different conditions, but NOT AT THE SAME TIME. When Johnny Hendricks was the UFC welterweight champion, he participated in a Spartan Race, and while he did not embarrass himself, he didn't exactly do all that well either.
  90. @Psmith
    I can't let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5'10", 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity...man, go to a gym that isn't in a country club sometime.

    I can’t let this go.

    Good! The “I’m superior because …” homily (with a boatload of unverifiable biographical assertions/anecdotes) you’ll get in response is always comedy gold educational. We need instruction from our betters. Totally not boring or predictable.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    I am sorry my sheer awesomeness is such a source of soreness for you. You could always go run another lap, shoot a few more rounds, and read one more book or two.
  91. […] 5. Jonathan Haidt responds to critics.  And one interpretation of the new Chetty results. […]

  92. Gr says:

    How many people in the bottom quartile of income do we think have the liquidity to move after their health goes downhill? At a time in their life where they are likely making less do we really view it as likely that they are switching parts of the country? Its not impossible, but I tend to view that as a trait of the upper class. The whole retire to the south thing requires having you know, money to retire with.

  93. @Galactic Overlord
    Probably because she's still alive. AFAIK, Google only features named individuals in doodles after they have died.

    Not always, this is a special occasion. It’s for her 100th birthday. Also, they could simply make a doodle of Ramona Quimby and Henry Huggins, her two most famous literary characters in the shape of “100”, something along those lines. It’s Google, they can do whatever they want.

  94. @22pp22
    The map below tells you all you really need to know:

    Poor + high crime + high population density + crap diet + poor air quality = short life expectancy.

    These factors are most strongly present in Glasgow.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect

    Aberdeenshire is really rich, but they die young because they deep fry pizza. People live a long time in the Cotswolds, because they do not recoil at the sight of fresh fruit (unlike Scots).

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/lifeexpectancyatbirthandatage65bylocalareasintheunitedkingdom/2014-04-16

    Scroll down for the map.

    Beyond that the main factors are, as always, genetic. People who live in rural Sussex have the genetic make-up you need to by a house there, unlike the physically tiny and misshapen denizens of the Medway.

    There are also places like the Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica where people have the genes that allow them to live forever. It's a nice place. I recommend it. Puntarenas is the perfect Third World city - safe, clean and pleasant. The locals despise visitors from the Central Valley because they throw trash and call them comehuevos.

    How about the island of Ibiza? Supposed to be young, hip, and hopping with tons of tourists and its in the Mediterranean. Supposed to be a fun place. Wonder what the life expectancy is in a place like Ibiza?

  95. @Jack D
    Having the kind of work ethic that you need to do really well on a rigorous standardized test is a 1st generation immigrant thing that mostly wears off in later generations. I once attended an event for parents of kids who had qualified for the Johns Hopkins Study of Exceptional Talent. You qualify by getting over 700 on either the math or verbal section of the SAT (usually math). Before your 13th birthday. Most of the kids were Asian and of the ones who were Asian, every single one of the parents was foreign born - some barely spoke Engrish. American Jews have mostly disappeared from the math competitions that they used to dominate, replaced by Asians.

    What happens in later generations is that the kids fall into white society (often intermarrying) but mostly into the "Belmont" side of white society, not the "Fishtown" side.

    They wouldn’t make it very long in the Fishtown section, and probably would have the crap kicked out of them by LaSharqueenus or Marquis. After all, there are many Fishtowns that now contain a growing number of Marquis.

  96. @Jefferson
    Social justice warriors in Liverpool created a fake anti-Black racism scenario.
    https://youtu.be/L31tC7N1EWA

    If anti-Black racism is as rampant in real life as the Left claims it is, they don't need to create these ridiculous fake scenarios.

    You know what they’re doing, come on. They’re “nipping it in the bud” in case any whites that hold any independent thoughts not approved by them start noticing things. And, SJWs can’t allow for too much noticing going on out there.

  97. Actually, San Diego (where I live) is well known for low police per capita. Apparently true of San Jose too. http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/public-safety/sizing-up-san-diegos-police-force/

  98. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    Well of course, there is a pecking order in Asian nations particularly among NE Asia with the Japan, China, and Korea at the top of the totem pole. Wasn't the Philippines conquered by Japan during WW2? But racially, the Philippines are South Asia and usually at the bottom of the heap as compared to the others (China, Japan, Korea).

    In point of fact, on the mainland, a case could be made to lump Filipinos in with Hispanics as they were a colony of Spain for nearly 300yrs. If you listen closely, many also have Hispanic sounding accents.

    It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain.

    “It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain.”

    If you see a Filipino with a Hispanic looking phenotype, 9 times out of 10 she or he is half White.

    The vast majority of Pinoys with 2 Filipino parents have Malay/Austronesian looking phenotypes.

    Filipina American Republican Michelle Malkin has said that her daughters are often mistaken for being Hispanic and that is because the father of her daughters is a White Jew.

    White/Filipino mixes often produce Mestizo looking phenotypes hence why they are mistaken for Hispanics.

    Mestizo Hispanic looking phenotypes are disproportionately overrepresented in Filipino soap operas, because they are seen as more attractive than Malay/Austronesian phenotypes.

    • Replies: @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    In Malkin's case, a key would be what her maiden name was. If it was Hispanic, then.....
    Also, Malkin has stated many many times that she is Roman Catholic, which was first brought to the Philippines by the Spanish Jesuit missionaries. And the country's name, "Philippines" was taken to honor King Philip II of Spain.

    I'm thinking that the vast majority of Filipinos that live in the cities, say, Manila (as opposed to the jungles) will tend to have higher concentrations of Hispanics in their bloodlines. Remember they were a colony of Spain for nearly three hundred years.

    , @Dave Pinsen
    Don't many Filipinos have white admixture already from centuries of Spanish colonization?
  99. @Jack D
    Having the kind of work ethic that you need to do really well on a rigorous standardized test is a 1st generation immigrant thing that mostly wears off in later generations. I once attended an event for parents of kids who had qualified for the Johns Hopkins Study of Exceptional Talent. You qualify by getting over 700 on either the math or verbal section of the SAT (usually math). Before your 13th birthday. Most of the kids were Asian and of the ones who were Asian, every single one of the parents was foreign born - some barely spoke Engrish. American Jews have mostly disappeared from the math competitions that they used to dominate, replaced by Asians.

    What happens in later generations is that the kids fall into white society (often intermarrying) but mostly into the "Belmont" side of white society, not the "Fishtown" side.

    Life is competitive in East Asia and India. So the children get raised in very academic, competitive households. Life is less competitive in America, so the Asian kids go “soft” after a couple generations. We see this with Hawaii Asians and also Japanese-Americans.

    With Jews, this has already taken place. Ron Unz noted the spectacular collapse in Jewish achievement in his article.

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-myth-of-american-meritocracy/

    The U.S. Math Olympiad began in 1974, and all the names of the top scoring students are easily available on the Internet. During the 1970s, well over 40 percent of the total were Jewish, and during the 1980s and 1990s, the fraction averaged about one-third. However, during the thirteen years since 2000, just two names out of 78 or 2.5 percent appear to be Jewish. The Putnam Exam is the most difficult and prestigious mathematics competition for American college students, with five or six Putnam winners having been selected each year since 1938. Over 40 percent of the Putnam winners prior to 1950 were Jewish, and during every decade from the 1950s through the 1990s, between 22 percent and 31 percent of the winners seem to have come from that same ethnic background. But since 2000, the percentage has dropped to under 10 percent, without a single likely Jewish name in the last seven years.

    This consistent picture of stark ethnic decline recurs when we examine the statistics for the Science Talent Search, which has been selecting 40 students as national finalists for America’s most prestigious high school science award since 1942, thus providing a huge statistical dataset of over 2800 top science students. During every decade from the 1950s through the 1980s, Jewish students were consistently 22–23 percent of the recipients, with the percentage then declining to 17 percent in the 1990s, 15 percent in the 2000s, and just 7 percent since 2010. Indeed, of the thirty top ranked students over the last three years, only a single one seems likely to have been Jewish. Similarly, Jews were over one-quarter of the top students in the Physics Olympiad from 1986 to 1997, but have fallen to just 5 percent over the last decade, a result which must surely send Richard Feynman spinning in his grave.

  100. Unz noted that Japanese-Americans are 1.1% of California’s population, but only 0.8% of PSAT semifinalists. Even a disproportionate share of the 0.8% are recent immigrants.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "Unz noted that Japanese-Americans are 1.1% of California’s population, but only 0.8% of PSAT semifinalists. Even a disproportionate share of the 0.8% are recent immigrants."

    A lot of Japanese restaurants in California are not even owned by Japs, but by Koreans or Chinese. Also there are not a lot of Japanese computer programmers and engineers in Silicon Valley.

    Japanese Americans in California are slipping and starting to punch below their weight.
  101. I respect Steve for valiantly doing the what I presume is hard work to interrogate and poke holes in the latest policy-wonk social science verbiage by the ton, however it is now past time to blacklist social planners like Chetty, Acemoglu, and their ilk from the adults table. They are merely enabling the magic-dirt magical-thinking volcano God that failed and keeps failing. Pretty clear that our overclass types & airport-book publishers of the world only flock to this “analysis” (so many columns of decimal numbers, oooooohhhh) because it has the soupcon of trendy precision, rather than having to be a fuddy-duddy who lectures on the importance of Tradition, Culture, etc.– you know, the way stuffy old pastors of various complexions did it in the bad old America. It might have some use for us yet, either for a diplomatic way of admitting that trashy people run trashy societies, or simply to serve as the dumbed-down format of this Unified Field Genomic-Determinant Theory that average yokels can’t grasp within seconds of having it explained to them, much to the dismay of bizarro-wonk HBD geeks. Butterknives don’t kill people, the temporizing of journo-economists does

  102. @Jefferson
    Social justice warriors in Liverpool created a fake anti-Black racism scenario.
    https://youtu.be/L31tC7N1EWA

    If anti-Black racism is as rampant in real life as the Left claims it is, they don't need to create these ridiculous fake scenarios.

    If racially-motivated crime is an additional category of offense, a “hate crime” in the irony-proof Orwellian parlance, then shouldn’t racism entrapment be prohibited as well? Someone hoaxes you into appearing racist, at least you’d be entitled to some regulatory language buttressing a civil suit.

    Racism insurance?

  103. @JohnnyWalker123
    Unz noted that Japanese-Americans are 1.1% of California's population, but only 0.8% of PSAT semifinalists. Even a disproportionate share of the 0.8% are recent immigrants.

    “Unz noted that Japanese-Americans are 1.1% of California’s population, but only 0.8% of PSAT semifinalists. Even a disproportionate share of the 0.8% are recent immigrants.”

    A lot of Japanese restaurants in California are not even owned by Japs, but by Koreans or Chinese. Also there are not a lot of Japanese computer programmers and engineers in Silicon Valley.

    Japanese Americans in California are slipping and starting to punch below their weight.

  104. @Jefferson
    "It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain."

    If you see a Filipino with a Hispanic looking phenotype, 9 times out of 10 she or he is half White.

    The vast majority of Pinoys with 2 Filipino parents have Malay/Austronesian looking phenotypes.

    Filipina American Republican Michelle Malkin has said that her daughters are often mistaken for being Hispanic and that is because the father of her daughters is a White Jew.

    White/Filipino mixes often produce Mestizo looking phenotypes hence why they are mistaken for Hispanics.

    Mestizo Hispanic looking phenotypes are disproportionately overrepresented in Filipino soap operas, because they are seen as more attractive than Malay/Austronesian phenotypes.

    In Malkin’s case, a key would be what her maiden name was. If it was Hispanic, then…..
    Also, Malkin has stated many many times that she is Roman Catholic, which was first brought to the Philippines by the Spanish Jesuit missionaries. And the country’s name, “Philippines” was taken to honor King Philip II of Spain.

    I’m thinking that the vast majority of Filipinos that live in the cities, say, Manila (as opposed to the jungles) will tend to have higher concentrations of Hispanics in their bloodlines. Remember they were a colony of Spain for nearly three hundred years.

  105. OT SPOILERS: Review: Jon Favreau’s ‘Jungle Book’ is a rich and rewarding family fable

    If you’re spoiler-adverse, bail out here, because I want to discuss a choice that was made by Marks and Favreau. As with the original Disney film, this movie deals with Bagheera the panther trying to return Mowgli to the man village for his own safety, worried that Shere Khan will hunt and kill him. In Kipling’s story, Mowgli’s decision to embrace fire as a weapon is what gives him primacy in the jungle, and he comes into his own as a man, willing to wield fire as a weapon. He suddenly stands supreme in the jungle, and it feels like man triumphs over nature by use of this awesome tool. In the Disney cartoon, there’s a lightning strike that ignites a tree, and Mowgli ties some flaming branches to Shere Khan’s tail. In the end of the cartoon, Mowgli finally heads into the man village, led by a beautiful girl, and it feels like Mowgli finally shaking off his time in the wild and embracing his own nature by becoming a man. In this version of the story, Favreau and Marks turn the Kipling version and the Disney version inside out. Mowgli makes the choice to use fire as a weapon, and for a moment, it does indeed make him the king of the jungle. But when he’s challenged by Shere Khan on it, Mowgli looks around and sees fear on the faces of the various animals who have gathered, and he realizes the distance that fire creates between him and the natural world that has been his home since he was a baby. He ends up rejecting it, reclaiming his own place in the pack, and at the film’s end, he’s still living in the jungle. It seems like a small thing, but it makes a huge thematic difference. This Mowgli belongs in the jungle, and while he may be a man, he will never grow into Man, which is something totally different. In this film, with the story it tells and the way it tells it, that’s the right choice. Kipling would most likely be horrified, but this is very clearly its own thing, no matter what inspiration it draws from earlier tellings.

  106. @Psmith
    I can't let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5'10", 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity...man, go to a gym that isn't in a country club sometime.

    I can’t let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight?

    1. Who is talking about collegiate wrestler or MMA guy? I was talking about Hollywood show muscles, specifically Daniel Craig as an example:

    2. Also, Hollywood actors who bulk up for films do not do the same exercises as college wrestlers or MMA fighters. The goal of Hollywood actors is to look as cinematically muscular as possible. The goal of wrestlers and MMA fighters is to have functional strength for their sports, which they can then sustain for the duration of their sports (which is generally short). I guarantee you Daniel Craig was not lifting up or hammering tires. In fact, fighters such as Cain Velasquez and the Diaz brothers are known for their phenomenal pace/cardio (the Diaz brothers do triathlons besides Brazilian Jujitsu, Boxing, and MMA), and they do not have Hollywood muscles (Cain looks “pudgy,” probably due to his diet, and the Diaz brothers are very gaunt-looking, or as the well-known Russian physical trainer Pavel Tsatsouline would say “have the wiry-strength look”).

    3. Furthermore, physical attributes for college wrestlers and MMA fighters, who put out a certain set of functional strength over a short period of time, are not necessarily the optimal attributes for sustained combat. In real combat, you hump a lot of gear, often go without rest or food, and sometimes have to negotiate rough terrain in conjunction with the said gear and lack of rest.

    man, go to a gym that isn’t in a country club sometime.

    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don’t do “country clubs” – I don’t play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Craig doesn't look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.
    , @Psmith
    Well, OK then.

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig's physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn't have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.
    2)The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry. Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig, modulo lighting and camera angles (which is a mighty important caveat), here: http://mmajunkie.com/2013/05/ufc-160-salaries-velasquez-and-dos-santos-are-top-earners-lead-payroll. See also: Frank Mir, Junior dos Santos, Bas Rutten, etc. etc. etc.
    3) I know what BMI is. If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.
    4) On a related note, regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5'11"). For a group that doesn't thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.
  107. @Dirk Dagger

    I can't let this go.
     
    Good! The "I'm superior because ..." homily (with a boatload of unverifiable biographical assertions/anecdotes) you'll get in response is always comedy gold educational. We need instruction from our betters. Totally not boring or predictable.

    I am sorry my sheer awesomeness is such a source of soreness for you. You could always go run another lap, shoot a few more rounds, and read one more book or two.

  108. @Psmith
    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5'11", 190 (clinically overweight!): http://publications.amsus.org/doi/pdf/10.7205/MILMED-D-02-2008

    Note that this is higher than in the non-SF units. Note that this is an average, not a maximum.

    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.
     
    If you want muscular beach boys who like to blow shit up (and have a bad attitude about it), there are always the Navy SEALs. Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces. It's SOCOM equivalent of undergrad jocks vs. brainy grad students (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).
    , @Dave Pinsen
    If the Army is still serving the kind of food it did in the '80s, I'm not surprised there are some soldiers with (smallish) guts there. The typical phenotype of Rangers and regular infantrymen at Fort Benning when I was there was guys who look like the work out, but have a bit of body fat. I suspected at the time that that was intentional, as the Army wanted them to have some energy reserves.
  109. @Jesse
    "David French thinks this is a spiritual crisis rather than economic one."

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433920/white-working-class-deaths-spiritual-crisis

    Quelle surprise, a Nat. Rev. cuck wants to blame it all on the people being affected by the policies he and his have been cheerleading for the past few decades.

    I think the word “spiritual” may be a joke on the pictures of vodka sipping Oklahomans. Those pictures look so similar to scenes when Soviet Union dissolved. I wonder if the economic changes afoot here are similar to what happened to Russians in the 1990s.

  110. @Psmith
    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5'11", 190 (clinically overweight!): http://publications.amsus.org/doi/pdf/10.7205/MILMED-D-02-2008

    Note that this is higher than in the non-SF units. Note that this is an average, not a maximum.

    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5’11″, 190 (clinically overweight!)

    BMI doesn’t measure physique or weight/muscle distribution in the body. It certainly doesn’t measure cardiovascular capacity.

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process – they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka “The Trek” when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).

    The human body can adapt to many different conditions, but NOT AT THE SAME TIME. When Johnny Hendricks was the UFC welterweight champion, he participated in a Spartan Race, and while he did not embarrass himself, he didn’t exactly do all that well either.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    Extra muscle weight wears out knees as well.
    , @ATX Hipster
    Why do guys who have never carried a ruck sack feel so comfortable telling people what it's like?

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process
     
    I've read the same thing in books, but I've never seen a ruck march that didn't have a disproportionately large group of big, long-legged guys up front and a disproportionately large group of short guys jogging to keep up in the back.

    There is no shortage of SF guys that weigh over 200 lbs. If anything, SF guys are bigger on average, albeit not drastically so. Possible exception would be 7th Group which is heavily Hispanic.

    There is enough variety in the events, in training, selection, and on the job, that guys of every size will be challenged. These blanket statements about big guys struggling are nonsense and it's baffling that that premise ever caught on.
  111. @ATX Hipster
    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.

    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.

    If you want muscular beach boys who like to blow shit up (and have a bad attitude about it), there are always the Navy SEALs. Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces. It’s SOCOM equivalent of undergrad jocks vs. brainy grad students (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).

    • Replies: @ATX Hipster
    I see you've been exposed to the military's lavishly funded PR campaigns, but have never been dumb enough to enlist. I envy you.
    , @Dirk Dagger

    Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces.
     
    And that's why we've been able to wrap things up in Iraq/Afghanistan so quickly.

    (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).
     
    And that's why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!
  112. @Twinkie

    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5’11″, 190 (clinically overweight!)
     
    BMI doesn't measure physique or weight/muscle distribution in the body. It certainly doesn't measure cardiovascular capacity.

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don't do well in the Army Special Forces selection process - they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka "The Trek" when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).

    The human body can adapt to many different conditions, but NOT AT THE SAME TIME. When Johnny Hendricks was the UFC welterweight champion, he participated in a Spartan Race, and while he did not embarrass himself, he didn't exactly do all that well either.

    Extra muscle weight wears out knees as well.

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    Everything wears out knees. Everything.
  113. @Langley
    The modal state worker in Hawaii is a Japanese female.

    My dentist's name is SonSon.

    BTW - no one in Hawaii considers Filipinos Asian.

    The socio-economic performance of East Asians varies quite a lot from country to country. For example, in New Zealand the unemployment rate for East Asians is about 6 percent, versus about 4 -5 percent for whites and 8-9 percent for Polynesians. There are also a conspiciously high number of educated East Asians in Australia doing menial jobs like cleaning houses and working in supermarkets.

    US East Asians seem to more aggressively career focused than East Asians in other parts of the Pacific rim, and probably have an easier time adapting to the much larger US economy.

  114. @Psmith
    I can't let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight? To think that 5'10", 200 or so, lean but not remarkably so, is an impractically gargantuan level of mammothosity...man, go to a gym that isn't in a country club sometime.

    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don’t do “country clubs” – I don’t play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.

    Well I guess your hash is settled. How’d that feel sissy boy?

  115. @Twinkie

    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.
     
    If you want muscular beach boys who like to blow shit up (and have a bad attitude about it), there are always the Navy SEALs. Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces. It's SOCOM equivalent of undergrad jocks vs. brainy grad students (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).

    I see you’ve been exposed to the military’s lavishly funded PR campaigns, but have never been dumb enough to enlist. I envy you.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I see you’ve been exposed to the military’s lavishly funded PR campaigns
     
    You obviously didn't realize that I was knocking the Navy's "lavishly funded PR campaigns" of the SEALs. Hollywood, anybody?
  116. @Twinkie

    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.
     
    If you want muscular beach boys who like to blow shit up (and have a bad attitude about it), there are always the Navy SEALs. Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces. It's SOCOM equivalent of undergrad jocks vs. brainy grad students (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).

    Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces.

    And that’s why we’ve been able to wrap things up in Iraq/Afghanistan so quickly.

    (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).

    And that’s why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!

    • Replies: @ATX Hipster
    This is excellent.
    , @Twinkie

    And that’s why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!
     
    There is a funny story about a couple of SEALs who came ashore all ready to rock and roll... onto a friendly controlled beach in the PI... who then beat a hasty retreat back into the water.

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.
  117. @Twinkie

    Average BMI in a Special Forces battalion was 25.9, or around 5’11″, 190 (clinically overweight!)
     
    BMI doesn't measure physique or weight/muscle distribution in the body. It certainly doesn't measure cardiovascular capacity.

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don't do well in the Army Special Forces selection process - they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka "The Trek" when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).

    The human body can adapt to many different conditions, but NOT AT THE SAME TIME. When Johnny Hendricks was the UFC welterweight champion, he participated in a Spartan Race, and while he did not embarrass himself, he didn't exactly do all that well either.

    Why do guys who have never carried a ruck sack feel so comfortable telling people what it’s like?

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process

    I’ve read the same thing in books, but I’ve never seen a ruck march that didn’t have a disproportionately large group of big, long-legged guys up front and a disproportionately large group of short guys jogging to keep up in the back.

    There is no shortage of SF guys that weigh over 200 lbs. If anything, SF guys are bigger on average, albeit not drastically so. Possible exception would be 7th Group which is heavily Hispanic.

    There is enough variety in the events, in training, selection, and on the job, that guys of every size will be challenged. These blanket statements about big guys struggling are nonsense and it’s baffling that that premise ever caught on.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I’ve read the same thing in books, but I’ve never seen a ruck march that didn’t have a disproportionately large group of big, long-legged guys up front and a disproportionately large group of short guys jogging to keep up in the back.
     
    1 . What books?

    2. Those are only two body types you see on a ruck march, eh? "Big, long-legged guys" and "short guys"? No kidding - taller guys with longer legs can run faster? What a discovery.

    There is no shortage of SF guys that weigh over 200 lbs. If anything, SF guys are bigger on average, albeit not drastically so.
     
    Yeah? And how many of those guys were 250 lbs. during the Q Course? Team guys bulk up during deployments lifting weights and eating whatever food they want (plus supplements). That kind of body mass and extra muscle are extremely tough to carry during selection.

    These blanket statements about big guys struggling are nonsense and it’s baffling that that premise ever caught on.
     
    1. It's not a blanket statement. It's more of a optimal zone thing that is conducive to a specific set of physical challenges. Modal guys are between 180-200 lbs. range for a reason.

    2. It's not an issue of big or small, but muscle mass carried per height/body weight. It's basic physiological science.
  118. @Dirk Dagger

    Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces.
     
    And that's why we've been able to wrap things up in Iraq/Afghanistan so quickly.

    (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).
     
    And that's why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!

    This is excellent.

  119. @Steve Sailer
    Extra muscle weight wears out knees as well.

    Everything wears out knees. Everything.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.
  120. @Jefferson
    "It can be quite jarring to see an Hispanic name coming from a somewhat Hispanic accented voice and then on further glance, notice that the person looks very Asian and not Hispanic at all. I mean Ferdinand Marcos spoke English with a somewhat Hispanic accent for example. There were some in school whom I thought were in fact from Mexico until they explained that they came from Manilla. And add to that they could speak Spanish which made sense since the nation was colonized by Spain."

    If you see a Filipino with a Hispanic looking phenotype, 9 times out of 10 she or he is half White.

    The vast majority of Pinoys with 2 Filipino parents have Malay/Austronesian looking phenotypes.

    Filipina American Republican Michelle Malkin has said that her daughters are often mistaken for being Hispanic and that is because the father of her daughters is a White Jew.

    White/Filipino mixes often produce Mestizo looking phenotypes hence why they are mistaken for Hispanics.

    Mestizo Hispanic looking phenotypes are disproportionately overrepresented in Filipino soap operas, because they are seen as more attractive than Malay/Austronesian phenotypes.

    Don’t many Filipinos have white admixture already from centuries of Spanish colonization?

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Don’t many Filipinos have white admixture already from centuries of Spanish colonization?
     
    Elites often do, but the admixture is not widespread.
  121. @Twinkie

    I can’t let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight?
     
    1. Who is talking about collegiate wrestler or MMA guy? I was talking about Hollywood show muscles, specifically Daniel Craig as an example: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_oc2VXsJFz4/TcmeUFHzDLI/AAAAAAAAD5c/A8HkEkHOwAg/s1600/daniel-craig-james-bond-swimsuit-01122011-07-820x1091.jpg

    2. Also, Hollywood actors who bulk up for films do not do the same exercises as college wrestlers or MMA fighters. The goal of Hollywood actors is to look as cinematically muscular as possible. The goal of wrestlers and MMA fighters is to have functional strength for their sports, which they can then sustain for the duration of their sports (which is generally short). I guarantee you Daniel Craig was not lifting up or hammering tires. In fact, fighters such as Cain Velasquez and the Diaz brothers are known for their phenomenal pace/cardio (the Diaz brothers do triathlons besides Brazilian Jujitsu, Boxing, and MMA), and they do not have Hollywood muscles (Cain looks "pudgy," probably due to his diet, and the Diaz brothers are very gaunt-looking, or as the well-known Russian physical trainer Pavel Tsatsouline would say "have the wiry-strength look").

    3. Furthermore, physical attributes for college wrestlers and MMA fighters, who put out a certain set of functional strength over a short period of time, are not necessarily the optimal attributes for sustained combat. In real combat, you hump a lot of gear, often go without rest or food, and sometimes have to negotiate rough terrain in conjunction with the said gear and lack of rest.

    man, go to a gym that isn’t in a country club sometime.
     
    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don't do "country clubs" - I don't play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.

    Craig doesn’t look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Craig doesn’t look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.
     
    Look at what he looked like in a previous movie: https://bamfstyle.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/2013-01-13-10-51-43-pm-booze.jpg

    All those muscles he put on, on that frame, I guarantee you he couldn't strap on a 35 lbs. loadout and run fast after that. Those Hollywood trainers aren't turning these actors into rugby players (or wrestlers, for that matter). They are puffing them up for the movies, so that audiences can go "Oooooh! He's so ripped. It makes sense that he can kick ass now."
  122. @ATX Hipster
    SF battalions have a lot of guys that live to lift, but also a surprising number of really schlubby guys.

    If the Army is still serving the kind of food it did in the ’80s, I’m not surprised there are some soldiers with (smallish) guts there. The typical phenotype of Rangers and regular infantrymen at Fort Benning when I was there was guys who look like the work out, but have a bit of body fat. I suspected at the time that that was intentional, as the Army wanted them to have some energy reserves.

    • Replies: @ATX Hipster

    guys who look like the work out, but have a bit of body fat
     
    Sounds about right. If they were serving some kind of scrambled egg-like product for breakfast and meat with a starch for dinner in the 80s, then yeah it's probably about the same. I have it on good faith MREs have improved over time.

    I guess there could be some intentional marbling going on but I've always assumed it was a combination of cheaply feeding a ton of people and being mired in the 70s wrt to nutrition and exercise science. They label the food on a Bad/OK sometimes/Good -type scale, which I think is kind of recentish (past decade).
  123. @ATX Hipster
    I see you've been exposed to the military's lavishly funded PR campaigns, but have never been dumb enough to enlist. I envy you.

    I see you’ve been exposed to the military’s lavishly funded PR campaigns

    You obviously didn’t realize that I was knocking the Navy’s “lavishly funded PR campaigns” of the SEALs. Hollywood, anybody?

  124. @Dirk Dagger
    Everything wears out knees. Everything.

    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.
     
    Absolutely. Endurance work - which is unavoidable for cardio - kills joints. Carrying weight and running is even worse. Huge upper body muscles worsen this. Whoever said "everything" hurts knees doesn't know jack about fitness training or human physiology. (And contrary to what a lot of people think, high weight-low rep strength training is safer on the joints.)

    Also, obviously sports that require rotations of joints while bearing weight tend to be very bad for knees - both wrestling and Judo, in particular. It's not fun to attempt a hip throw and your opponent or training partner collapses onto your knee while it's torqueing. Not fun at all.
    , @Brutusale
    What wears out knees is being large enough to play nose tackle in football and also being the catcher on the baseball team. Being a 250-pound guy and catching both ends of a June doubleheader gets your knees' attention.
  125. @Dirk Dagger

    Army Special Forces Groups are busy learning indigenous cultures of foreign regions, so that they can do insurgency/counter-insurgency, and train and leverage indigenous forces.
     
    And that's why we've been able to wrap things up in Iraq/Afghanistan so quickly.

    (who can also kick down doors and snatch bad guys at night, should that be requested).
     
    And that's why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!

    And that’s why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!

    There is a funny story about a couple of SEALs who came ashore all ready to rock and roll… onto a friendly controlled beach in the PI… who then beat a hasty retreat back into the water.

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.
     
    Your pretty-certains and funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with. Although I'm pretty certain I heard about an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn't it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.) Take it with a grain of salt though, 'cause the guy I heard it from only trains with a middling Midwestern wrestling team and, get this, works for a living.
  126. @ATX Hipster
    Why do guys who have never carried a ruck sack feel so comfortable telling people what it's like?

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process
     
    I've read the same thing in books, but I've never seen a ruck march that didn't have a disproportionately large group of big, long-legged guys up front and a disproportionately large group of short guys jogging to keep up in the back.

    There is no shortage of SF guys that weigh over 200 lbs. If anything, SF guys are bigger on average, albeit not drastically so. Possible exception would be 7th Group which is heavily Hispanic.

    There is enough variety in the events, in training, selection, and on the job, that guys of every size will be challenged. These blanket statements about big guys struggling are nonsense and it's baffling that that premise ever caught on.

    I’ve read the same thing in books, but I’ve never seen a ruck march that didn’t have a disproportionately large group of big, long-legged guys up front and a disproportionately large group of short guys jogging to keep up in the back.

    1 . What books?

    2. Those are only two body types you see on a ruck march, eh? “Big, long-legged guys” and “short guys”? No kidding – taller guys with longer legs can run faster? What a discovery.

    There is no shortage of SF guys that weigh over 200 lbs. If anything, SF guys are bigger on average, albeit not drastically so.

    Yeah? And how many of those guys were 250 lbs. during the Q Course? Team guys bulk up during deployments lifting weights and eating whatever food they want (plus supplements). That kind of body mass and extra muscle are extremely tough to carry during selection.

    These blanket statements about big guys struggling are nonsense and it’s baffling that that premise ever caught on.

    1. It’s not a blanket statement. It’s more of a optimal zone thing that is conducive to a specific set of physical challenges. Modal guys are between 180-200 lbs. range for a reason.

    2. It’s not an issue of big or small, but muscle mass carried per height/body weight. It’s basic physiological science.

  127. @Jefferson
    "For the well-to-do, the worst life expectancy cities are Las Vegas, which you’ll be Leaving a half year earlier than anywhere else, Gary,"

    There are wealthy people who reside in Gary, Indiana? That's news to me. With the extreme high crime and poverty rate in that Negro city, I hope their mansions have the best home security system in the world.

    Also do Asian American residents of Las Vegas on average have a shorter life expectancy than White residents of Sin City? After all Asians are disproportionately more likely to be degenerate gamblers than Whites.

    The last time I was at a casino, it looked like Little Manila up in there.

    I lived in Las Vegas most of my life. My ex girlfriend was Filipino. She and her family were all degenerate gamblers, specifically those cartoon slot machines. Her sister makes good money as a nurse yet her kids go hungry because her sister spends most of her earnings on slots. LV is fun to visit but a very dysfunctional place to live.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    " I lived in Las Vegas most of my life. My ex girlfriend was Filipino. She and her family were all degenerate gamblers, specifically those cartoon slot machines. Her sister makes good money as a nurse yet her kids go hungry because her sister spends most of her earnings on slots. LV is fun to visit but a very dysfunctional place to live."

    Casino owners would greatly benefit from massive Filipino immigration into The U.S.
  128. @Dave Pinsen
    Craig doesn't look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.

    Craig doesn’t look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.

    Look at what he looked like in a previous movie:

    All those muscles he put on, on that frame, I guarantee you he couldn’t strap on a 35 lbs. loadout and run fast after that. Those Hollywood trainers aren’t turning these actors into rugby players (or wrestlers, for that matter). They are puffing them up for the movies, so that audiences can go “Oooooh! He’s so ripped. It makes sense that he can kick ass now.”

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    You ever see what sprinters look like ( http://i.ebayimg.com/images/i/251098603271-0-1/s-l1000.jpg )? They run pretty fast.

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast. Having larger muscles doesn't make you slow. It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military's obsession with distance running is misguided.
  129. The unexpectedly high life expectancy of Mexicans is mostly because they have low smoking rates, especially compared to low income whites. Also, Mexicans tend to eat a lot of fruits and vegetables.

  130. @Dave Pinsen
    If the Army is still serving the kind of food it did in the '80s, I'm not surprised there are some soldiers with (smallish) guts there. The typical phenotype of Rangers and regular infantrymen at Fort Benning when I was there was guys who look like the work out, but have a bit of body fat. I suspected at the time that that was intentional, as the Army wanted them to have some energy reserves.

    guys who look like the work out, but have a bit of body fat

    Sounds about right. If they were serving some kind of scrambled egg-like product for breakfast and meat with a starch for dinner in the 80s, then yeah it’s probably about the same. I have it on good faith MREs have improved over time.

    I guess there could be some intentional marbling going on but I’ve always assumed it was a combination of cheaply feeding a ton of people and being mired in the 70s wrt to nutrition and exercise science. They label the food on a Bad/OK sometimes/Good -type scale, which I think is kind of recentish (past decade).

  131. @Dave Pinsen
    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.

    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.

    Absolutely. Endurance work – which is unavoidable for cardio – kills joints. Carrying weight and running is even worse. Huge upper body muscles worsen this. Whoever said “everything” hurts knees doesn’t know jack about fitness training or human physiology. (And contrary to what a lot of people think, high weight-low rep strength training is safer on the joints.)

    Also, obviously sports that require rotations of joints while bearing weight tend to be very bad for knees – both wrestling and Judo, in particular. It’s not fun to attempt a hip throw and your opponent or training partner collapses onto your knee while it’s torqueing. Not fun at all.

  132. @Dave Pinsen
    Don't many Filipinos have white admixture already from centuries of Spanish colonization?

    Don’t many Filipinos have white admixture already from centuries of Spanish colonization?

    Elites often do, but the admixture is not widespread.

  133. @Twinkie

    Craig doesn’t look ludicrously muscular there. He looks like a natural ecto-mesomorph who did some shoulder work. His low body fat makes his muscles stand out and look bigger than they would otherwise.
     
    Look at what he looked like in a previous movie: https://bamfstyle.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/2013-01-13-10-51-43-pm-booze.jpg

    All those muscles he put on, on that frame, I guarantee you he couldn't strap on a 35 lbs. loadout and run fast after that. Those Hollywood trainers aren't turning these actors into rugby players (or wrestlers, for that matter). They are puffing them up for the movies, so that audiences can go "Oooooh! He's so ripped. It makes sense that he can kick ass now."

    You ever see what sprinters look like ()? They run pretty fast.

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast. Having larger muscles doesn’t make you slow. It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military’s obsession with distance running is misguided.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    You ever see what sprinters look like...
     
    Yes, I know what sprinters look like. How long are their races?

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast.
     
    The NFL is stop and go with frequent switching of players for offense/defense. Try rugby. How many rugby players need oxygen masks?

    And, geez, for the umpteenth time, I am NOT saying muscles = slow. I said EXCESS muscle = slower than should be. For example, biceps that look like thighs are not as functional for many purposes and are oxygen/energy thieves.

    It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military’s obsession with distance running is misguided.
     
    Thank you for the article. While I am not suggesting that what the author calls "military fitness culture" is perfect, there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations - even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.

    Obviously there is an optimal zone for physical attributes that should be calibrated for specific tasks (e.g. infantry vs. arty), but the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures. I agree with some of the author's conclusion though that the army should go more on the side of high intensity training.

    For my own "cardio" work, I never run empty. And in any case, I have had some significant injuries and I cannot do long distance running without having severe joint pain and inflammations. I do more interval running with resistance (usually I drag a tire behind me).

    By the way, as far as what Army Special Forces team members look like, here is a photograph from an operation in 2002: http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt85/tcetihcra/MILITARY%20REFERENCE/Military-Other-26227.jpg

    Not exactly the look of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson or Daniel Craig 2.0.
  134. @Jay Fink
    I lived in Las Vegas most of my life. My ex girlfriend was Filipino. She and her family were all degenerate gamblers, specifically those cartoon slot machines. Her sister makes good money as a nurse yet her kids go hungry because her sister spends most of her earnings on slots. LV is fun to visit but a very dysfunctional place to live.

    ” I lived in Las Vegas most of my life. My ex girlfriend was Filipino. She and her family were all degenerate gamblers, specifically those cartoon slot machines. Her sister makes good money as a nurse yet her kids go hungry because her sister spends most of her earnings on slots. LV is fun to visit but a very dysfunctional place to live.”

    Casino owners would greatly benefit from massive Filipino immigration into The U.S.

  135. @Dave Pinsen
    You ever see what sprinters look like ( http://i.ebayimg.com/images/i/251098603271-0-1/s-l1000.jpg )? They run pretty fast.

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast. Having larger muscles doesn't make you slow. It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military's obsession with distance running is misguided.

    You ever see what sprinters look like…

    Yes, I know what sprinters look like. How long are their races?

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast.

    The NFL is stop and go with frequent switching of players for offense/defense. Try rugby. How many rugby players need oxygen masks?

    And, geez, for the umpteenth time, I am NOT saying muscles = slow. I said EXCESS muscle = slower than should be. For example, biceps that look like thighs are not as functional for many purposes and are oxygen/energy thieves.

    It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military’s obsession with distance running is misguided.

    Thank you for the article. While I am not suggesting that what the author calls “military fitness culture” is perfect, there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations – even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.

    Obviously there is an optimal zone for physical attributes that should be calibrated for specific tasks (e.g. infantry vs. arty), but the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures. I agree with some of the author’s conclusion though that the army should go more on the side of high intensity training.

    For my own “cardio” work, I never run empty. And in any case, I have had some significant injuries and I cannot do long distance running without having severe joint pain and inflammations. I do more interval running with resistance (usually I drag a tire behind me).

    By the way, as far as what Army Special Forces team members look like, here is a photograph from an operation in 2002:

    Not exactly the look of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson or Daniel Craig 2.0.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen

    there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations – even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.
     
    In reality, I suspect there are three reasons for the focus on distance running, the first of which may have had some legitimacy once:

    1) The Korean War. Lots of American troops had difficulty keeping up during the big retreat. That seems to loom large in the Army's institutional memory in particular.

    2) Dr. Kenneth Cooper.

    3) Institutional momentum/selection effects. People who hate running tend not to stay in the military; runners do. And runners emphasize running.
  136. @Twinkie

    And that’s why the SEALS were sitting on the sidelines when the biggest kick-and-snatch special op went down. Go Army!
     
    There is a funny story about a couple of SEALs who came ashore all ready to rock and roll... onto a friendly controlled beach in the PI... who then beat a hasty retreat back into the water.

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.

    Your pretty-certains and funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with. Although I’m pretty certain I heard about an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn’t it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.) Take it with a grain of salt though, ’cause the guy I heard it from only trains with a middling Midwestern wrestling team and, get this, works for a living.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Asian Ivy League Combat Veteran Whose Pretty Certains Are 100% Locks for Mere Mortals
     
    Your material is getting a bit stale (earlier ones were punchier). Let me help for the sake of completeness: add "tall" and "ruggedly handsome." Bonus points for "chivalrous" and "fair-minded." If you want to be all complex and nuanced, you can also perhaps add "martinet" and "hard-ass."

    funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with.
     
    I'd like to hear some. Try.

    an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn’t it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.)
     
    I don't think that's nearly as funny as two Navy SEALs "operators" who - in broad daylight - emerged from the ocean and "surreptitiously" came ashore on a beach in Basilan already secured by an Army SF team, specifically from 1st SFG (A) - there is that cool acronym for you - and allied Filipino forces, and then beat an embarrassing retreat back into the ocean and disappeared, all the while the said SF team and the Filipinos were looking at them almost dumbstruck.

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.
  137. Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it’s just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else’s eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68.

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    The average age for a man in the Bronze Age was eighteen, in the Roman era, twenty-two. Heaven must have been beautiful then. Today it must look dreadful. When a man reaches forty, he has no chance to die beautifully. No matter how he tries, he will die of decay. He must compel himself to live. -- Yukio Mishima, Mexican Nobel Laureate
    , @Jefferson
    "Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it’s just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else’s eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68."

    My father will turn 66 years old next month and he is in Kevin Costner level good shape, another man who is in his 60s.
    , @Twinkie

    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50... For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68.
     
    I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren.
  138. Dirk Dagger [AKA "Chico Caldera"] says:
    @dumpstersquirrel
    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it's just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else's eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God's Judgment is 68.

    The average age for a man in the Bronze Age was eighteen, in the Roman era, twenty-two. Heaven must have been beautiful then. Today it must look dreadful. When a man reaches forty, he has no chance to die beautifully. No matter how he tries, he will die of decay. He must compel himself to live. — Yukio Mishima, Mexican Nobel Laureate

  139. @dumpstersquirrel
    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it's just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else's eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God's Judgment is 68.

    “Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it’s just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else’s eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68.”

    My father will turn 66 years old next month and he is in Kevin Costner level good shape, another man who is in his 60s.

  140. @Twinkie

    I can’t let this go. Have you ever in your life seen a picture of a light-heavyweight collegiate wrestler or MMA guy not immediately after making weight?
     
    1. Who is talking about collegiate wrestler or MMA guy? I was talking about Hollywood show muscles, specifically Daniel Craig as an example: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_oc2VXsJFz4/TcmeUFHzDLI/AAAAAAAAD5c/A8HkEkHOwAg/s1600/daniel-craig-james-bond-swimsuit-01122011-07-820x1091.jpg

    2. Also, Hollywood actors who bulk up for films do not do the same exercises as college wrestlers or MMA fighters. The goal of Hollywood actors is to look as cinematically muscular as possible. The goal of wrestlers and MMA fighters is to have functional strength for their sports, which they can then sustain for the duration of their sports (which is generally short). I guarantee you Daniel Craig was not lifting up or hammering tires. In fact, fighters such as Cain Velasquez and the Diaz brothers are known for their phenomenal pace/cardio (the Diaz brothers do triathlons besides Brazilian Jujitsu, Boxing, and MMA), and they do not have Hollywood muscles (Cain looks "pudgy," probably due to his diet, and the Diaz brothers are very gaunt-looking, or as the well-known Russian physical trainer Pavel Tsatsouline would say "have the wiry-strength look").

    3. Furthermore, physical attributes for college wrestlers and MMA fighters, who put out a certain set of functional strength over a short period of time, are not necessarily the optimal attributes for sustained combat. In real combat, you hump a lot of gear, often go without rest or food, and sometimes have to negotiate rough terrain in conjunction with the said gear and lack of rest.

    man, go to a gym that isn’t in a country club sometime.
     
    I have been practicing Judo all my life, and trained with Olympic athletes. I also trained for several years during off-season with wrestlers from a major Midwestern powerhouse.

    Although I have cut back my training significantly due to injuries I sustained overseas, I still train in Brazilian Jujitsu and Muay Thai, and my training facility is home to a couple of active UFC fighters and a larger number of regional circuit fighters.

    I don't do "country clubs" - I don't play golf or tennis, and most country club food is very blah.

    Well, OK then.

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig’s physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn’t have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.
    2)The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry. Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig, modulo lighting and camera angles (which is a mighty important caveat), here: http://mmajunkie.com/2013/05/ufc-160-salaries-velasquez-and-dos-santos-are-top-earners-lead-payroll. See also: Frank Mir, Junior dos Santos, Bas Rutten, etc. etc. etc.
    3) I know what BMI is. If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.
    4) On a related note, regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5’11”). For a group that doesn’t thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig’s physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn’t have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.
     
    I've seen wrestlers who are even more muscular-looking. But that's not the point, which you keep - perhaps intentionally - missing. Those wrestlers looked like that for a long time. Daniel Craig went to that physique from a "normal" guy look in a short time frame. It's highly unlikely that his skeletal and cardiovascular system improved correspondingly to be able to carry those new muscles. His lungs probably couldn't process enough oxygen to power those muscles for too long, and his bones and joints could not support the extra weight and power-output without dramatically increasing the risk of injury in a high-intensity activity.

    Furthermore, again, as I stated before, both wrestling and MMA are short duration sports (though when you are grappling and striking for 3 rounds of 5 minutes each, it can feel like an eternity).

    The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry.
     
    Nick Diaz fights at 170 and 185 (welter and middle - his last fight was against Anderson Silva) and Nate Diaz fights at 155 and 170 (light and welter - his last fight was against a HUGELY blown up and muscular Connor McGregor, who gassed).

    So you think 6' height is unusually tall for welterweights? Well, let's see the top ten UFC welterweights (plus the champion), shall we? http://www.ufc.com/rankings?id=

    Champion: Robbie Lawler 5' 11"
    1. Rory McDonald 6'
    2. Stephen Thompson 6'
    3. Tyrone Woodley 5' 9"
    4. Carlos Condit 6' 2"
    5. Johny Hendricks 5' 9"
    6. Demian Maia 6' 1"*
    7. Neil Magny 6' 3"
    8. Matt Brown 6'
    9. Dong Hyun Kim 6' 1"
    10. Tarec Saffiedine 5' 10"

    *I've met Demian Maia and trained with him (okay, "trained" is a stretch; more like he schooled me and beat me like a drum, i.e. made me tap repeatedly at will). He is a little bit shorter than I am, so 6' 1" sounds right.

    The Diaz brothers look more "gaunt" than just about all those fighters, including the 6' 3" Neil Magny. They look wiry because they are optimized for endurance sports (triathlon, in particular), not because they are six-footers.

    Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig
     
    https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gUJ6ccmZ5oFz4XsN2zcicq21PBk=/0x0:1100x733/730x487/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46483146/085_Cain_Velasquez_vs_Antonio_Silva.0.jpg

    Yeah, if you say so. I've see him in person at an UFC event, and that photo captures his look well (off-camp, he is a bit chubbier, but not by much).

    If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.
     
    Who said anything about "skinny"? You keep coming up with a straw man. See below.

    regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5’11″). For a group that doesn’t thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.
     
    Let's actually look at what I wrote earlier, shall we? And let me boldface some words that seem to have escaped your reading comprehension while you were berating me about not leaving a "country club":

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process – they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka “The Trek” when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).
     
    Nowhere do I say anything about "tall vs. short" or "fat vs. skinny" or any number of other straw man comparisons you and the other fella ascribed to me. Nor do I - anywhere - say that big guys don't make it through the Q Course successfully. I certainly didn't say 200 lbs. was some kind of a magic cutoff, above which you fail the Q Course automatically (note "significantly above" - some men who are 200-220 passing doesn't exactly contradict my point).

    To put another way, what I stated was that men who have that Hollywood super hero-look - who carry that BLOWN-UP HEAVILY MUSCLED look, which in the popular imagination is the body type of SOCOM ninjas (see Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson as another common example) - TEND not to do well in the selection process, because EXCESS muscle mass is a burden, especially during certain phases (e.g. SERE) when caloric (energy) intake drops dramatically. Big muscles don't do well without energy.

    The weight/height of those who pass the Q Course is on a bell curve for a reason. Certainly there are short guys, tall guys, "schlubby" guys, lean guys, muscular guys, what have you. But the modal height is a little under 6' and the modal weight is around 180-200 lbs. for a reason - a certain set of body attributes tend to be "optimal" (not perfect, not shoe-in, not "only") for the particular set of challenges that are required for the SF selection process.

    If you want to contradict me and throw around an insult, at least UNDERSTAND what I said before you do so.
  141. @Dirk Dagger

    I am pretty certain that the average IQ of Army Special Forces teams is higher than that of the Navy SEALs.
     
    Your pretty-certains and funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with. Although I'm pretty certain I heard about an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn't it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.) Take it with a grain of salt though, 'cause the guy I heard it from only trains with a middling Midwestern wrestling team and, get this, works for a living.

    Asian Ivy League Combat Veteran Whose Pretty Certains Are 100% Locks for Mere Mortals

    Your material is getting a bit stale (earlier ones were punchier). Let me help for the sake of completeness: add “tall” and “ruggedly handsome.” Bonus points for “chivalrous” and “fair-minded.” If you want to be all complex and nuanced, you can also perhaps add “martinet” and “hard-ass.”

    funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with.

    I’d like to hear some. Try.

    an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn’t it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.)

    I don’t think that’s nearly as funny as two Navy SEALs “operators” who – in broad daylight – emerged from the ocean and “surreptitiously” came ashore on a beach in Basilan already secured by an Army SF team, specifically from 1st SFG (A) – there is that cool acronym for you – and allied Filipino forces, and then beat an embarrassing retreat back into the ocean and disappeared, all the while the said SF team and the Filipinos were looking at them almost dumbstruck.

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.

    • Replies: @Anonymous

    Your material is getting a bit stale
     
    I know, I'm not putting in as much work as I should. Do you know a ranked comedy team I could train with?

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.
     
    A complex and nuanced observation, that Ivy League education pays all sorts of dividends that we non-degreed losers will never see. There's a widow I met in an Abbottabad saloon that had a real knee-slapper to tell. When I get more time perhaps.
  142. @Psmith
    Well, OK then.

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig's physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn't have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.
    2)The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry. Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig, modulo lighting and camera angles (which is a mighty important caveat), here: http://mmajunkie.com/2013/05/ufc-160-salaries-velasquez-and-dos-santos-are-top-earners-lead-payroll. See also: Frank Mir, Junior dos Santos, Bas Rutten, etc. etc. etc.
    3) I know what BMI is. If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.
    4) On a related note, regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5'11"). For a group that doesn't thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig’s physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn’t have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.

    I’ve seen wrestlers who are even more muscular-looking. But that’s not the point, which you keep – perhaps intentionally – missing. Those wrestlers looked like that for a long time. Daniel Craig went to that physique from a “normal” guy look in a short time frame. It’s highly unlikely that his skeletal and cardiovascular system improved correspondingly to be able to carry those new muscles. His lungs probably couldn’t process enough oxygen to power those muscles for too long, and his bones and joints could not support the extra weight and power-output without dramatically increasing the risk of injury in a high-intensity activity.

    Furthermore, again, as I stated before, both wrestling and MMA are short duration sports (though when you are grappling and striking for 3 rounds of 5 minutes each, it can feel like an eternity).

    The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry.

    Nick Diaz fights at 170 and 185 (welter and middle – his last fight was against Anderson Silva) and Nate Diaz fights at 155 and 170 (light and welter – his last fight was against a HUGELY blown up and muscular Connor McGregor, who gassed).

    So you think 6′ height is unusually tall for welterweights? Well, let’s see the top ten UFC welterweights (plus the champion), shall we? http://www.ufc.com/rankings?id=

    Champion: Robbie Lawler 5′ 11″
    1. Rory McDonald 6′
    2. Stephen Thompson 6′
    3. Tyrone Woodley 5′ 9″
    4. Carlos Condit 6′ 2″
    5. Johny Hendricks 5′ 9″
    6. Demian Maia 6′ 1″*
    7. Neil Magny 6′ 3″
    8. Matt Brown 6′
    9. Dong Hyun Kim 6′ 1″
    10. Tarec Saffiedine 5′ 10″

    *I’ve met Demian Maia and trained with him (okay, “trained” is a stretch; more like he schooled me and beat me like a drum, i.e. made me tap repeatedly at will). He is a little bit shorter than I am, so 6′ 1″ sounds right.

    The Diaz brothers look more “gaunt” than just about all those fighters, including the 6′ 3″ Neil Magny. They look wiry because they are optimized for endurance sports (triathlon, in particular), not because they are six-footers.

    Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig

    https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gUJ6ccmZ5oFz4XsN2zcicq21PBk=/0x0:1100×733/730×487/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46483146/085_Cain_Velasquez_vs_Antonio_Silva.0.jpg

    Yeah, if you say so. I’ve see him in person at an UFC event, and that photo captures his look well (off-camp, he is a bit chubbier, but not by much).

    If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.

    Who said anything about “skinny”? You keep coming up with a straw man. See below.

    regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5’11″). For a group that doesn’t thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.

    Let’s actually look at what I wrote earlier, shall we? And let me boldface some words that seem to have escaped your reading comprehension while you were berating me about not leaving a “country club”:

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process – they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka “The Trek” when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).

    Nowhere do I say anything about “tall vs. short” or “fat vs. skinny” or any number of other straw man comparisons you and the other fella ascribed to me. Nor do I – anywhere – say that big guys don’t make it through the Q Course successfully. I certainly didn’t say 200 lbs. was some kind of a magic cutoff, above which you fail the Q Course automatically (note “significantly above” – some men who are 200-220 passing doesn’t exactly contradict my point).

    To put another way, what I stated was that men who have that Hollywood super hero-look – who carry that BLOWN-UP HEAVILY MUSCLED look, which in the popular imagination is the body type of SOCOM ninjas (see Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson as another common example) – TEND not to do well in the selection process, because EXCESS muscle mass is a burden, especially during certain phases (e.g. SERE) when caloric (energy) intake drops dramatically. Big muscles don’t do well without energy.

    The weight/height of those who pass the Q Course is on a bell curve for a reason. Certainly there are short guys, tall guys, “schlubby” guys, lean guys, muscular guys, what have you. But the modal height is a little under 6′ and the modal weight is around 180-200 lbs. for a reason – a certain set of body attributes tend to be “optimal” (not perfect, not shoe-in, not “only”) for the particular set of challenges that are required for the SF selection process.

    If you want to contradict me and throw around an insult, at least UNDERSTAND what I said before you do so.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    Sorry, that link for Cain didn't work. Try these:

    http://www.mmaspace.net/wp-content/uploads/cain-velasquez1.png

    http://www.foxsports.com/content/dam/fsdigital/fscom/UFC/images/2013/11/20/112013-UFC-CAIN-VELASQUEZ-DEFEATS-JUNIOR-DOS-SANTOS-DC-PI-CQ.jpg

    http://www.mmaspace.net/wp-content/uploads/cain-velasquez1.jpg
  143. @dumpstersquirrel
    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50, about the average age White people finally get their grandchildren, and after that it's just an ever-increasing battle with frailty and senility as our bodies and minds literally die right before ours and everybody else's eyes. Gross. For most people, the optimal age of God's Judgment is 68.

    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50… For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68.

    I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren.

    • Replies: @Jefferson
    "I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren."

    You have race on your side, so you will live a very long life. I constantly see Chinese FOBs here in San Francisco who look like they are 200 years old. San Francisco is to elderly Chinese people like what Florida is to elderly White people.

  144. @Twinkie

    1) I was never any great shakes as a wrestler, but Craig’s physique in your Casino Royale still wouldn’t have looked remotely out of place in off-season training.
     
    I've seen wrestlers who are even more muscular-looking. But that's not the point, which you keep - perhaps intentionally - missing. Those wrestlers looked like that for a long time. Daniel Craig went to that physique from a "normal" guy look in a short time frame. It's highly unlikely that his skeletal and cardiovascular system improved correspondingly to be able to carry those new muscles. His lungs probably couldn't process enough oxygen to power those muscles for too long, and his bones and joints could not support the extra weight and power-output without dramatically increasing the risk of injury in a high-intensity activity.

    Furthermore, again, as I stated before, both wrestling and MMA are short duration sports (though when you are grappling and striking for 3 rounds of 5 minutes each, it can feel like an eternity).

    The Diaz bros. are six-foot-tall welterweights. No kidding they look wiry.
     
    Nick Diaz fights at 170 and 185 (welter and middle - his last fight was against Anderson Silva) and Nate Diaz fights at 155 and 170 (light and welter - his last fight was against a HUGELY blown up and muscular Connor McGregor, who gassed).

    So you think 6' height is unusually tall for welterweights? Well, let's see the top ten UFC welterweights (plus the champion), shall we? http://www.ufc.com/rankings?id=

    Champion: Robbie Lawler 5' 11"
    1. Rory McDonald 6'
    2. Stephen Thompson 6'
    3. Tyrone Woodley 5' 9"
    4. Carlos Condit 6' 2"
    5. Johny Hendricks 5' 9"
    6. Demian Maia 6' 1"*
    7. Neil Magny 6' 3"
    8. Matt Brown 6'
    9. Dong Hyun Kim 6' 1"
    10. Tarec Saffiedine 5' 10"

    *I've met Demian Maia and trained with him (okay, "trained" is a stretch; more like he schooled me and beat me like a drum, i.e. made me tap repeatedly at will). He is a little bit shorter than I am, so 6' 1" sounds right.

    The Diaz brothers look more "gaunt" than just about all those fighters, including the 6' 3" Neil Magny. They look wiry because they are optimized for endurance sports (triathlon, in particular), not because they are six-footers.

    Velasquez is about as muscular as Craig
     
    https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gUJ6ccmZ5oFz4XsN2zcicq21PBk=/0x0:1100x733/730x487/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46483146/085_Cain_Velasquez_vs_Antonio_Silva.0.jpg

    Yeah, if you say so. I've see him in person at an UFC event, and that photo captures his look well (off-camp, he is a bit chubbier, but not by much).

    If 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion has a higher BMI than Craig by virtue of being a bit fat rather than by virtue of being more muscular than he is, that is not exactly a stunning victory for the concept of the skinny warrior.
     
    Who said anything about "skinny"? You keep coming up with a straw man. See below.

    regardless of what you think about the phenotypes that thrive in Special Forces selection, about 15% of a representative Special Forces battalion had a higher BMI than Craig did for Casino Royale (heavier than 205 at 5’11″). For a group that doesn’t thrive in Special Forces, they certainly seem to be thriving in Special Forces.
     
    Let's actually look at what I wrote earlier, shall we? And let me boldface some words that seem to have escaped your reading comprehension while you were berating me about not leaving a "country club":

    Men who are 200 lbs.+, especially those who are significantly above that weight, generally don’t do well in the Army Special Forces selection process – they tend to be injury prone. And during that selection process, they are usually of MUCH lower bodyweight than their normal walk-around weight. Excess muscle consumes valuable energy without providing benefits in return. And so much of elite military selection process is designed to break down your body (and break your mind). As a general rule, heavily muscled men suffer the most, because their bodies require more energy, especially during the dreaded extended road march, aka “The Trek” when you are burdened with additional comm gear (20+ lbs. on top of your normal, quite burdensome, loadout).
     
    Nowhere do I say anything about "tall vs. short" or "fat vs. skinny" or any number of other straw man comparisons you and the other fella ascribed to me. Nor do I - anywhere - say that big guys don't make it through the Q Course successfully. I certainly didn't say 200 lbs. was some kind of a magic cutoff, above which you fail the Q Course automatically (note "significantly above" - some men who are 200-220 passing doesn't exactly contradict my point).

    To put another way, what I stated was that men who have that Hollywood super hero-look - who carry that BLOWN-UP HEAVILY MUSCLED look, which in the popular imagination is the body type of SOCOM ninjas (see Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson as another common example) - TEND not to do well in the selection process, because EXCESS muscle mass is a burden, especially during certain phases (e.g. SERE) when caloric (energy) intake drops dramatically. Big muscles don't do well without energy.

    The weight/height of those who pass the Q Course is on a bell curve for a reason. Certainly there are short guys, tall guys, "schlubby" guys, lean guys, muscular guys, what have you. But the modal height is a little under 6' and the modal weight is around 180-200 lbs. for a reason - a certain set of body attributes tend to be "optimal" (not perfect, not shoe-in, not "only") for the particular set of challenges that are required for the SF selection process.

    If you want to contradict me and throw around an insult, at least UNDERSTAND what I said before you do so.

    Sorry, that link for Cain didn’t work. Try these:

  145. @Twinkie

    Longevity is for suckers. All the coolest things in life happen by age 50... For most people, the optimal age of God’s Judgment is 68.
     
    I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren.

    “I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren.”

    You have race on your side, so you will live a very long life. I constantly see Chinese FOBs here in San Francisco who look like they are 200 years old. San Francisco is to elderly Chinese people like what Florida is to elderly White people.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    You have race on your side, so you will live a very long life.
     
    That's helpful. But the men of my line died very early (quite a few from war). But that's probably because of violence, alcohol addiction, and over-the-top tobacco use. What further lends credence to that speculation is that my female relatives mostly lived to their 80's and 90's.

    And, again, I am NOT Chinese.

  146. @Twinkie

    You ever see what sprinters look like...
     
    Yes, I know what sprinters look like. How long are their races?

    The NFL is full of muscular guys who run fast.
     
    The NFL is stop and go with frequent switching of players for offense/defense. Try rugby. How many rugby players need oxygen masks?

    And, geez, for the umpteenth time, I am NOT saying muscles = slow. I said EXCESS muscle = slower than should be. For example, biceps that look like thighs are not as functional for many purposes and are oxygen/energy thieves.

    It does make distance running more difficult, but some knowledgeable folks (e.g., http://startingstrength.com/articles/army_weak_long.pdf ) suggest the military’s obsession with distance running is misguided.
     
    Thank you for the article. While I am not suggesting that what the author calls "military fitness culture" is perfect, there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations - even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.

    Obviously there is an optimal zone for physical attributes that should be calibrated for specific tasks (e.g. infantry vs. arty), but the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures. I agree with some of the author's conclusion though that the army should go more on the side of high intensity training.

    For my own "cardio" work, I never run empty. And in any case, I have had some significant injuries and I cannot do long distance running without having severe joint pain and inflammations. I do more interval running with resistance (usually I drag a tire behind me).

    By the way, as far as what Army Special Forces team members look like, here is a photograph from an operation in 2002: http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt85/tcetihcra/MILITARY%20REFERENCE/Military-Other-26227.jpg

    Not exactly the look of Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson or Daniel Craig 2.0.

    there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations – even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.

    In reality, I suspect there are three reasons for the focus on distance running, the first of which may have had some legitimacy once:

    1) The Korean War. Lots of American troops had difficulty keeping up during the big retreat. That seems to loom large in the Army’s institutional memory in particular.

    2) Dr. Kenneth Cooper.

    3) Institutional momentum/selection effects. People who hate running tend not to stay in the military; runners do. And runners emphasize running.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    1. The critique of American soldiers as not being as good on the feet compared to their European and Asian contemporaries goes back before the Korean War. During World War II, the same criticism was leveled against our infantrymen - that they could not march quickly over a long distance when cut off from motor transport - and it probably had some validity. Even back then, the U.S. was the most motorized society in the world and, likewise, our army was also the most motorized. Our troops probably were not as used to marching on foot for a long time as our counterparts in other armies.

    2. All this was before Dr. Cooper's influence.

    3. As I wrote before, "the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures." It doesn't like to change its ways, and quite often even when it's force to change, it's quick to revert back to the old ways.
  147. @Dave Pinsen

    there is a reason for low intensity endurance-orientation in basic military fitness training, because marching on foot over a long distance is fundamental to infantry operations – even in the highly mechanized/air mechanized US Armed Forces.
     
    In reality, I suspect there are three reasons for the focus on distance running, the first of which may have had some legitimacy once:

    1) The Korean War. Lots of American troops had difficulty keeping up during the big retreat. That seems to loom large in the Army's institutional memory in particular.

    2) Dr. Kenneth Cooper.

    3) Institutional momentum/selection effects. People who hate running tend not to stay in the military; runners do. And runners emphasize running.

    1. The critique of American soldiers as not being as good on the feet compared to their European and Asian contemporaries goes back before the Korean War. During World War II, the same criticism was leveled against our infantrymen – that they could not march quickly over a long distance when cut off from motor transport – and it probably had some validity. Even back then, the U.S. was the most motorized society in the world and, likewise, our army was also the most motorized. Our troops probably were not as used to marching on foot for a long time as our counterparts in other armies.

    2. All this was before Dr. Cooper’s influence.

    3. As I wrote before, “the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures.” It doesn’t like to change its ways, and quite often even when it’s force to change, it’s quick to revert back to the old ways.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Walking and running are two different activities, and walking long distances is a lot more forgiving on joints. Even if the concern were for walking endurance, it doesn't explain the emphasis on distance running.
  148. @Dave Pinsen
    I have some muscle (and plenty of fat) and my knees are fine. What seems to wear out knees is endurance work, running in particular.

    What wears out knees is being large enough to play nose tackle in football and also being the catcher on the baseball team. Being a 250-pound guy and catching both ends of a June doubleheader gets your knees’ attention.

  149. I think the major key is exercise, and you can get to sufficient cardio without having to slam your knees into the ground as per jogging on a constant basis.

    For example, every spring I go for my first long walk (4-5 miles) which will take an hour and 20 minutes when I start, but after 6-8 repetitions goes down to about an hour; and part of it involves a pretty steep incline for about a 1/2 mile and when I do it the first time my heart thumps but after a few reps I don’t feel my heart working hard at all.

    Put it another way, I am convinced that cardio-vascular health is within reach of anyone, you just have to put one foot in front of the other. And commit to doing it.

    As for long distances; in the Marines we ran 3 miles several times a week but the occasional long marches (5-10-10+) miles were a lot more satisfying and a lot better psychologically in developing endurance and stamina, which are, in my experience, largely mental anyway. It’s also a great way to learn concentration.

    • Replies: @Dave Pinsen
    Another problem with jogging/running, I think, is a lot of people who do it don't give their bodies time to recover. I never understood that.

    When I ran ten years ago, I would do it 2 or 3 days per week, and never on consecutive days. I'd also wear very well-cushioned New Balance shoes designed for heavier runners.
  150. @Twinkie
    1. The critique of American soldiers as not being as good on the feet compared to their European and Asian contemporaries goes back before the Korean War. During World War II, the same criticism was leveled against our infantrymen - that they could not march quickly over a long distance when cut off from motor transport - and it probably had some validity. Even back then, the U.S. was the most motorized society in the world and, likewise, our army was also the most motorized. Our troops probably were not as used to marching on foot for a long time as our counterparts in other armies.

    2. All this was before Dr. Cooper's influence.

    3. As I wrote before, "the military is, in general, a risk- and change-averse bureaucracy that likes standard operating procedures." It doesn't like to change its ways, and quite often even when it's force to change, it's quick to revert back to the old ways.

    Walking and running are two different activities, and walking long distances is a lot more forgiving on joints. Even if the concern were for walking endurance, it doesn’t explain the emphasis on distance running.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Walking and running are two different activities, and walking long distances is a lot more forgiving on joints.
     
    And walking or jogging with extra 35-100 lbs. of weight is something else altogether... especially in extremely rugged terrain.

    Even if the concern were for walking endurance, it doesn’t explain the emphasis on distance running.
     
    Traditional military fitness training was not that specific or calibrated. It - basic line infantry, anyway - basically wanted people who could cover a long distance on foot relatively quickly, not explosive athletes. That training was quite primitive, in the modern sports science sense - lots of jogging, jumping jacks, pushups, and sit-ups, and whatnot.

    By the way, that criticism of poor endurance conditioning of (regular) American soldiery has continued in the recent times. After the Operation Anaconda (Shahi Kot Valley, Afghanistan, early 2002), elements from the 10th Mountain division was criticized for poor conditioning and inability to navigate the mountainous terrain well. They ran into unexpected trouble during the operation, and were getting mortared to heck. They had to be rescued by two Australian SAS members, and American SF units calling in a lot of air strikes, before being lifted out of the area safely. Some of the smaller units were almost overrun.

    Some of the criticism about lack of conditioning was valid though much of the blame for the failure was poor intelligence about the size and disposition of the enemy and tactical blunders.
  151. @SPMoore8
    I think the major key is exercise, and you can get to sufficient cardio without having to slam your knees into the ground as per jogging on a constant basis.

    For example, every spring I go for my first long walk (4-5 miles) which will take an hour and 20 minutes when I start, but after 6-8 repetitions goes down to about an hour; and part of it involves a pretty steep incline for about a 1/2 mile and when I do it the first time my heart thumps but after a few reps I don't feel my heart working hard at all.

    Put it another way, I am convinced that cardio-vascular health is within reach of anyone, you just have to put one foot in front of the other. And commit to doing it.

    As for long distances; in the Marines we ran 3 miles several times a week but the occasional long marches (5-10-10+) miles were a lot more satisfying and a lot better psychologically in developing endurance and stamina, which are, in my experience, largely mental anyway. It's also a great way to learn concentration.

    Another problem with jogging/running, I think, is a lot of people who do it don’t give their bodies time to recover. I never understood that.

    When I ran ten years ago, I would do it 2 or 3 days per week, and never on consecutive days. I’d also wear very well-cushioned New Balance shoes designed for heavier runners.

  152. @Langley
    Again - no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha'Ole do.

    Again – no one who actually lives in Hawaii and has grown up with all of these different people thinks the way you Mainland Ha’Ole do.

    It doesn’t matter what you or I “think” – for statistical purposes Filipinos are categorized as Asian, and form the plurality ancestry group in Hawaii.

  153. @Jefferson
    "I would be very happy to meet my grandchildren and, should God bless me so, my great grandchildren."

    You have race on your side, so you will live a very long life. I constantly see Chinese FOBs here in San Francisco who look like they are 200 years old. San Francisco is to elderly Chinese people like what Florida is to elderly White people.

    You have race on your side, so you will live a very long life.

    That’s helpful. But the men of my line died very early (quite a few from war). But that’s probably because of violence, alcohol addiction, and over-the-top tobacco use. What further lends credence to that speculation is that my female relatives mostly lived to their 80’s and 90’s.

    And, again, I am NOT Chinese.

  154. @Dave Pinsen
    Walking and running are two different activities, and walking long distances is a lot more forgiving on joints. Even if the concern were for walking endurance, it doesn't explain the emphasis on distance running.

    Walking and running are two different activities, and walking long distances is a lot more forgiving on joints.

    And walking or jogging with extra 35-100 lbs. of weight is something else altogether… especially in extremely rugged terrain.

    Even if the concern were for walking endurance, it doesn’t explain the emphasis on distance running.

    Traditional military fitness training was not that specific or calibrated. It – basic line infantry, anyway – basically wanted people who could cover a long distance on foot relatively quickly, not explosive athletes. That training was quite primitive, in the modern sports science sense – lots of jogging, jumping jacks, pushups, and sit-ups, and whatnot.

    By the way, that criticism of poor endurance conditioning of (regular) American soldiery has continued in the recent times. After the Operation Anaconda (Shahi Kot Valley, Afghanistan, early 2002), elements from the 10th Mountain division was criticized for poor conditioning and inability to navigate the mountainous terrain well. They ran into unexpected trouble during the operation, and were getting mortared to heck. They had to be rescued by two Australian SAS members, and American SF units calling in a lot of air strikes, before being lifted out of the area safely. Some of the smaller units were almost overrun.

    Some of the criticism about lack of conditioning was valid though much of the blame for the failure was poor intelligence about the size and disposition of the enemy and tactical blunders.

  155. Anonymous • Disclaimer says:
    @Twinkie

    Asian Ivy League Combat Veteran Whose Pretty Certains Are 100% Locks for Mere Mortals
     
    Your material is getting a bit stale (earlier ones were punchier). Let me help for the sake of completeness: add "tall" and "ruggedly handsome." Bonus points for "chivalrous" and "fair-minded." If you want to be all complex and nuanced, you can also perhaps add "martinet" and "hard-ass."

    funny-stories obviously trump anything I could come up with.
     
    I'd like to hear some. Try.

    an Army Special Forces Team (wouldn’t it be totally awesome if I knew a cool acronym for that?) that found itself surrounded by indigenous unfriendlies but leveraged the opportunity through their knowledge of the indigenous culture (including folk songs) and got the insurgents to counter themselves. (Like the Star Trek where Kirk makes the bad robo-satellite whack itself.)
     
    I don't think that's nearly as funny as two Navy SEALs "operators" who - in broad daylight - emerged from the ocean and "surreptitiously" came ashore on a beach in Basilan already secured by an Army SF team, specifically from 1st SFG (A) - there is that cool acronym for you - and allied Filipino forces, and then beat an embarrassing retreat back into the ocean and disappeared, all the while the said SF team and the Filipinos were looking at them almost dumbstruck.

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.

    Your material is getting a bit stale

    I know, I’m not putting in as much work as I should. Do you know a ranked comedy team I could train with?

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.

    A complex and nuanced observation, that Ivy League education pays all sorts of dividends that we non-degreed losers will never see. There’s a widow I met in an Abbottabad saloon that had a real knee-slapper to tell. When I get more time perhaps.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Asian Ivy League Combat Veteran, Humble, Tallish, Who's So Fair-minded He Critiques His inferiors
     
    Come on now, you are not getting it right. You left out "ruggedly handsome."

    And no one, I mean absolutely no one, would ever describe me as "humble." I have always been a cocky bastard, brimming with confidence with the ability to achieve anything to which I put my mind (how do you think I became so awesome?). Even my priest kinda gave up on that, and I see him almost every day.

    Do you know a ranked comedy team I could train with?
     
    If you want to join the comedy mafia, Harvard is where the game is.

    we non-degreed losers will never see.
     
    Now that's the spirit. You are finally exposing that chip on the shoulder.

    My neighbors and friends in WV don't have college degrees either, but they are not losers. Losers are people who burn with resentment for others who are happy with their lives.

    There’s a widow I met in an Abbottabad saloon that had a real knee-slapper to tell.
     
    Bro, you ain't DEVGRU.
  156. @Anonymous

    Your material is getting a bit stale
     
    I know, I'm not putting in as much work as I should. Do you know a ranked comedy team I could train with?

    Often real stories are far more comedic than made-up ones.
     
    A complex and nuanced observation, that Ivy League education pays all sorts of dividends that we non-degreed losers will never see. There's a widow I met in an Abbottabad saloon that had a real knee-slapper to tell. When I get more time perhaps.

    Asian Ivy League Combat Veteran, Humble, Tallish, Who’s So Fair-minded He Critiques His inferiors

    Come on now, you are not getting it right. You left out “ruggedly handsome.”

    And no one, I mean absolutely no one, would ever describe me as “humble.” I have always been a cocky bastard, brimming with confidence with the ability to achieve anything to which I put my mind (how do you think I became so awesome?). Even my priest kinda gave up on that, and I see him almost every day.

    Do you know a ranked comedy team I could train with?

    If you want to join the comedy mafia, Harvard is where the game is.

    we non-degreed losers will never see.

    Now that’s the spirit. You are finally exposing that chip on the shoulder.

    My neighbors and friends in WV don’t have college degrees either, but they are not losers. Losers are people who burn with resentment for others who are happy with their lives.

    There’s a widow I met in an Abbottabad saloon that had a real knee-slapper to tell.

    Bro, you ain’t DEVGRU.

  157. Harvard is where the game is.

    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I’m “talkin’” with a Harvard man!

    Bro, you ain’t DEVGRU.

    That’s something we share isn’t it? (Maybe we Bros, as you say, could hang out togethor?) Maybe you could “leverage” that non-DEVGRU-ness to somethingorotheramatize me through your insights into my primitive culture … and the “ain’t” is a subtle and nuanced touch, makes you seem more like a regular guy … (wait a second, was that one of your super subtle and super nuanced Harvard/Special Forces Jedi mind tricks?) … wow! You guys are good!

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I’m “talkin’” with a Harvard man!
     
    I did not say I was a Harvard man. I said if you wanted to get into the comedy business, Harvard has a "comedy mafia" that has produced the likes of Conan O'Brien (who was the president of the "Harvard Lampoon"). Try some reading comprehension.

    “ain’t” is a subtle and nuanced touch
     
    It's a common parlance around my farm house in West Virginia. And that line, "Bro, you ain't DEVGRU" is one I have used several times in the past, usually in connection with some wannabe, bearded gun-toting guys who flex, but haven't been shot at once in their lives.

    And, no, I am not DEVGRU either, but I am not the one who alluded to Abbottabad as if I were. Where is that funny story, by the way? I gave you one about the vaunted SEALs in Basilan. Kinda very specific to be made up, eh? Helps that there were many witnesses - a whole Army SF team plus a battalion of Filipinos.

    My guess is, you ain't got a story, wannabe. And don't give me that "it's all classified" bullshit. If you've been around enough, you got ones you can tell.
  158. @Dirk Dagger

    Harvard is where the game is.
     
    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I'm "talkin'" with a Harvard man!

    Bro, you ain’t DEVGRU.
     
    That's something we share isn't it? (Maybe we Bros, as you say, could hang out togethor?) Maybe you could "leverage" that non-DEVGRU-ness to somethingorotheramatize me through your insights into my primitive culture … and the "ain't" is a subtle and nuanced touch, makes you seem more like a regular guy ... (wait a second, was that one of your super subtle and super nuanced Harvard/Special Forces Jedi mind tricks?) … wow! You guys are good!

    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I’m “talkin’” with a Harvard man!

    I did not say I was a Harvard man. I said if you wanted to get into the comedy business, Harvard has a “comedy mafia” that has produced the likes of Conan O’Brien (who was the president of the “Harvard Lampoon”). Try some reading comprehension.

    “ain’t” is a subtle and nuanced touch

    It’s a common parlance around my farm house in West Virginia. And that line, “Bro, you ain’t DEVGRU” is one I have used several times in the past, usually in connection with some wannabe, bearded gun-toting guys who flex, but haven’t been shot at once in their lives.

    And, no, I am not DEVGRU either, but I am not the one who alluded to Abbottabad as if I were. Where is that funny story, by the way? I gave you one about the vaunted SEALs in Basilan. Kinda very specific to be made up, eh? Helps that there were many witnesses – a whole Army SF team plus a battalion of Filipinos.

    My guess is, you ain’t got a story, wannabe. And don’t give me that “it’s all classified” bullshit. If you’ve been around enough, you got ones you can tell.

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    This is just cruel.

    My guess is, you ain’t got a story, wannabe. And don’t give me that “it’s all classified” bullshit. If you’ve been around enough, you got ones you can tell.
     
    Why be angry at me? I didn't get into the big H either. Be proud, you made it to West Virginia, true, if you had that Harvard sheepskin you prolly woulda made to Arkansas but still, throw your chest out, you're in an enviable position.
    , @Steve Sailer
    The lady who used to live next door to me, who was a comedywriter for "Married with Children," was always denouncing the "Harvard Mafia" that came to town to write for "The Simpsons."
  159. @Twinkie

    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I’m “talkin’” with a Harvard man!
     
    I did not say I was a Harvard man. I said if you wanted to get into the comedy business, Harvard has a "comedy mafia" that has produced the likes of Conan O'Brien (who was the president of the "Harvard Lampoon"). Try some reading comprehension.

    “ain’t” is a subtle and nuanced touch
     
    It's a common parlance around my farm house in West Virginia. And that line, "Bro, you ain't DEVGRU" is one I have used several times in the past, usually in connection with some wannabe, bearded gun-toting guys who flex, but haven't been shot at once in their lives.

    And, no, I am not DEVGRU either, but I am not the one who alluded to Abbottabad as if I were. Where is that funny story, by the way? I gave you one about the vaunted SEALs in Basilan. Kinda very specific to be made up, eh? Helps that there were many witnesses - a whole Army SF team plus a battalion of Filipinos.

    My guess is, you ain't got a story, wannabe. And don't give me that "it's all classified" bullshit. If you've been around enough, you got ones you can tell.

    This is just cruel.

    My guess is, you ain’t got a story, wannabe. And don’t give me that “it’s all classified” bullshit. If you’ve been around enough, you got ones you can tell.

    Why be angry at me? I didn’t get into the big H either. Be proud, you made it to West Virginia, true, if you had that Harvard sheepskin you prolly woulda made to Arkansas but still, throw your chest out, you’re in an enviable position.

  160. @Twinkie

    Harvard?!? OMG! The folks back home will never believe it !!! I’m “talkin’” with a Harvard man!
     
    I did not say I was a Harvard man. I said if you wanted to get into the comedy business, Harvard has a "comedy mafia" that has produced the likes of Conan O'Brien (who was the president of the "Harvard Lampoon"). Try some reading comprehension.

    “ain’t” is a subtle and nuanced touch
     
    It's a common parlance around my farm house in West Virginia. And that line, "Bro, you ain't DEVGRU" is one I have used several times in the past, usually in connection with some wannabe, bearded gun-toting guys who flex, but haven't been shot at once in their lives.

    And, no, I am not DEVGRU either, but I am not the one who alluded to Abbottabad as if I were. Where is that funny story, by the way? I gave you one about the vaunted SEALs in Basilan. Kinda very specific to be made up, eh? Helps that there were many witnesses - a whole Army SF team plus a battalion of Filipinos.

    My guess is, you ain't got a story, wannabe. And don't give me that "it's all classified" bullshit. If you've been around enough, you got ones you can tell.

    The lady who used to live next door to me, who was a comedywriter for “Married with Children,” was always denouncing the “Harvard Mafia” that came to town to write for “The Simpsons.”

    • Replies: @Dirk Dagger
    As my Uncle Mario (by marriage) always said: Mafia is a slur against Italians, there is no Mafia! ... and we'll kill anybody who says there is!
  161. @Steve Sailer
    The lady who used to live next door to me, who was a comedywriter for "Married with Children," was always denouncing the "Harvard Mafia" that came to town to write for "The Simpsons."

    As my Uncle Mario (by marriage) always said: Mafia is a slur against Italians, there is no Mafia! … and we’ll kill anybody who says there is!

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Mafia is a slur against Italians, there is no Mafia!
     
    You were mildly amusing in the beginning, but now the material is stupidly stale.

    I grew up partly in NYC. I went to the (illegal and public) fireworks party thrown by John Gotti and his bunch almost every year, because I had a friend who was the son of Sicilian immigrants who "kinda sorta a little bit" knew John Gotti. My then friend and I even ran into both Gotti and Sammy the Bull (Salvatore Gravano) one year, holding court during one of these events.

    That was my ONE brush with the famous Teflon Don. That and much later I had dinner at Sparks Steak House, outside of which Gotti and Gravano executed their hit on Paul Castellano, then the head of the Gambino crime family.
  162. @Dirk Dagger
    As my Uncle Mario (by marriage) always said: Mafia is a slur against Italians, there is no Mafia! ... and we'll kill anybody who says there is!

    Mafia is a slur against Italians, there is no Mafia!

    You were mildly amusing in the beginning, but now the material is stupidly stale.

    I grew up partly in NYC. I went to the (illegal and public) fireworks party thrown by John Gotti and his bunch almost every year, because I had a friend who was the son of Sicilian immigrants who “kinda sorta a little bit” knew John Gotti. My then friend and I even ran into both Gotti and Sammy the Bull (Salvatore Gravano) one year, holding court during one of these events.

    That was my ONE brush with the famous Teflon Don. That and much later I had dinner at Sparks Steak House, outside of which Gotti and Gravano executed their hit on Paul Castellano, then the head of the Gambino crime family.

  163. You were mildly amusing in the beginning, but now the material is stupidly stale.

    I’d say “likewise” but you were never even mildy amusing. Consistent though.Thank you, good night, and please tip your waitress …

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