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We’ve been repeatedly assured over the last two years that there is no such thing as a Ferguson Effect, that Black Lives Matter couldn’t possibly be contributing to a higher homicide rate.

We’ve also been assured that it’s all very complicated and it will take years to disentangle.

Also, the homicide spike isn’t at all national, it’s just in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago.

As I point out below, the latest Chicago surge in murders began in January 2016, immediately after or coinciding with four BLM-driven triumphs of liberalism over the Chicago Police Department from late November 2015 to early January 2016.

But Chicago is murky compared to Baltimore, where the current high rate of homicides can be dated to April 27, 2015, the day of the BLM riot over Freddie Gray’s death. This may be the single most clear-cut case in the history of social science.

Peter Moskos, a former Baltimore cop and now an associate professor at John Jay College, created the graph above. From his blog Cop in the Hood:

The Freddie Gray Effect in Baltimore

September 4, 2017

… I went back to a one-year moving average, split on April 27, 2015, the day of the Baltimore riots. (Pre-riot takes the average from preceding year; post-riot from the year following.) What I’m trying to highlight, in an honest way, is the large spike in murders and shooting immediately after the riots and Mosby’s decision to bring flimsy criminal charges against six Baltimore City police officers. Unlike other crimes, shootings and homicides are reported quite accurately. …

The riots were a big deal, but nobody died. More important to policing and public safety was what happened after the riots. Nobody was holding the tiller. The department was basically leaderless. The mayor had been almost in hiding. Then Mosby made the biggest mistake of all. She criminal charged six officers for doing their job — legally chasing and arresting a man running from an active drug corner (this man, Freddie Gray, then died in the police van and that led to riots). Mosby got no convictions because she had no case. She couldn’t prove a crime, much less culpability. She would later say, “I think the message has been sent.”

Police got the message: if you do your job and somebody dies, you might face murder charges. Activists and Baltimore’s leaders pushed a police-are-the-problem narrative. Police were instructed — both by city leaders and then in the odd DOJ report city leaders asked for — to be less proactive since such policing will disproportionately affect minorities.

Few seem to care that minorities are disproportionately affected by the rise in murder. Regardless, police were told to back off and end quality-of-life policing. So police did.

But, unlike the arrest-’em-all strategy formulated by former Mayor O’Malley (which worked at reducing crime a little) discretionary enforcement of low-level offenses targeting high-risk offenders reduced violence a lot. It also sent a proper message to non-criminals that your block and your stoop were not going to be surrendered to the bad boys of the hood.

Of course these efforts will disproportionately affected blacks. In a city where more than 90 percent of the murderers and murder victims are black, effective anti-violence policing will disproportionately affected blacks (Of course, bad policing will, too). The rough edges of the square can be sanded down, but this is a square that cannot be circled.

Reformers wanted an end to loitering and trespass arrests. Corner clearing basically came to a stop. Add to this other factors — fewer police officers, the suspension of one-person patrol units, poor leadership — and voilà: more violent criminals committing more violent crime.

Murders and shooting increased literally overnight, and dramatically so.

Of course this took the police-are-the-problem crowd by surprise. By their calculations, police doing less, particularly in black neighborhoods, would result in less harm to blacks.

And indeed, arrests went way down. So did stops. So did complaints against policing. Even police-involved shootings are down. Everything is down! Shame about the murders and robberies, though. Initially this crime jump was denied.

Now we’re supposed to think it’s just the new normal for a city in “transition.”

How about this narrative: police and policing matter; and despite all the flaws in policing at a systemic and individual level, police and policing are still more good than bad, especially for society’s most at risk. There is no reason to believe that the path to better policing much pass through a Marxist-like stage of “progressive reform” before improving. We pay police, in part, to confront violent criminals in neighborhoods where more than 20 percent of all men are murdered.

We owe this to those, all of those, who live there. To abdicate police protection in the name of social justice in morally wrong.

And lest you think this rise in crime is only a problem in Baltimore, be aware that over the past three years, homicide is up dramatically in America, almost everywhere. Not just Baltimore and Chicago. Unprecedentedly so, in fact.

 
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  1. I wish we could stop calling it Social Science, which it ain’t, and go back to calling it Social Studies.

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    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    I wish we could stop calling it Social Science, which it ain’t, and go back to calling it Social Studies.
     
    Nothing ending in "studies" is a discipline, let alone a science.
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  2. TheBoom says:

    “This may be the single most clear-cut case in the history of social science.”

    That still doesn’t mean people are allowed to notice it.

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  3. Josh says:

    Is it possible that the deep state intentionally picked terrible cases to publicize so that they could punish cops for simply doing their job?. Punishing cops that were actually guilty of something egregious wouldn’t have had the same effect. There is also the added propaganda value of gaslighting people who figure out what actually happened and the divisions this creates in society. Thesis and antithesis with synthesis being, idk, maybe a nationalized police force or gun laws or something. Too conspiratorial?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johan Schmidt
    Well the "dog that didn't bark" in support of your thesis was the manner in which the shooting of Tamir Rice failed to gain traction in the way that the others did, despite arguably being much worse optics for the police (not to say it was 100% clear cut one way or the other).
    , @eD
    Josh, one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I've seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting against, can ramp up "law and order" measures to handle the fallout, and make sure that homeowners in neighborhoods they want to develop sell their houses cheaply when they flee to the suburbs.
    , @27 year old
    There's an element of that, it makes Whites instinctively take the side of the cops.

    Cops kill and abuse tons and tons of Whites but nobody says a thing. Barely any WN even mention this. Given White share of the criminal population we are actually the ones getting disproportionately killed by police and additionally, we have all seen the studies that show police are less likely to shoot a black suspect than a White one.

    But, for the most part Whites never ask why our police kill us at vastly higher rates than the police of other White countries with comparable White crime rates.
    , @TomSchmidt
    That makes the most sense. Pushing the case of the "gentle Giant" instead of Tamir Rice, trying to make people feel bad for a strong-arm robber who tried to steal a cop's gun. It didn't make sense to me. Your suggestion helps clarify things.
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  4. Danindc says:

    “We pay police, in part, to confront violent criminals in neighborhoods where more than 20 percent of all men are murdered”…is that true? That’s crazy if so.

    16 years w Obama and Dubya as President- what a disaster. They both got their supporters killed in droves: Obama- black men and Dubya white Christian men (Iraq Attaq). Thanks for nothing.

    Steve, keep hammering the msm on this. I could eventually see a point where one of the blue check mark cowards grudgingly gives you some credit for highlighting these points. I do my part to try and shame them but I’m only one man. I’m only one man Steve! One man I tells ye!!!

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    • Replies: @Charles Erwin Wilson II

    16 years w Obama and Dubya as President- what a disaster. They both got their supporters killed in droves: Obama- black men and Dubya white Christian men (Iraq Attaq). Thanks for nothing.
     
    Agree.
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  5. There is a lawsuit in this that can help these people. People on the right never use lawsuits they way leftists do, but should, because they are effective. Sue for better police protection. Or get the justice department to investigate or sue and then settle with enforceable assurances that stop and frisk will be used, etc. The vast majority of people in these neighborhoods want more police protection, especially when crime rates are rising. They don’t care about civil rights for gangbangers and drug dealers. But they don’t have the microphones.

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  6. “To abdicate police protection in the name of social justice i[s] morally wrong.”

    OK, then how about in the name of just minding our own business?

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  7. @Josh
    Is it possible that the deep state intentionally picked terrible cases to publicize so that they could punish cops for simply doing their job?. Punishing cops that were actually guilty of something egregious wouldn't have had the same effect. There is also the added propaganda value of gaslighting people who figure out what actually happened and the divisions this creates in society. Thesis and antithesis with synthesis being, idk, maybe a nationalized police force or gun laws or something. Too conspiratorial?

    Well the “dog that didn’t bark” in support of your thesis was the manner in which the shooting of Tamir Rice failed to gain traction in the way that the others did, despite arguably being much worse optics for the police (not to say it was 100% clear cut one way or the other).

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    • Replies: @Glaivester
    Or how about the body cavity search of Charnesia Corley? That would seem to be something that BLM should have cared deeply about.
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  8. George says:

    “Peter Moskos, a former Baltimore cop and now an associate professor at John Jay College, created the graph above. From his blog Cop in the Hood”

    In Defense of Flogging 1st Edition
    by Peter Moskos (Author)

    Prisons impose tremendous costs, yet they’re easily ignored. Criminals– even low-level nonviolent offenders– enter our dysfunctional criminal justice system and disappear into a morass that’s safely hidden from public view. Our “tough on crime” political rhetoric offers us no way out, and prison reformers are too quickly dismissed as soft on criminals. Meanwhile, the taxpayer picks up the extraordinary and unnecessary bill.
    In Defense of Flogging presents a solution both radical and simple: give criminals a choice between incarceration and the lash. Flogging is punishment: quick, cheap, and honest.

    Noted criminologist Peter Moskos, in irrefutable style, shows the logic of the new system while highlighting flaws in the status quo. Flogging may be cruel, but In Defense of Flogging shows us that compared to our broken prison system, it is the lesser of two evils.

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    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    Good enough. Flog 'em.

    But on the 3rd strike, they get a one way trip to somewhere ELSE. Preferably an island. Preferably one where food grows on trees.

    Where said miscreant gets dropped off and forgotten. No return. No parole. No do-overs. No tax-paid bennies. You can't live in civil society, you don't get to continue preying on its members.

    I know, this won't fly. I'm betting that once this long, debt-fueled boom ends and the snap-back to reality makes the Great Depression look sunny, capital punishment will make a phenomenal come-back, and do so for offenses far short of capital murder.
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  9. Was asked recently whether I’m, essentially, cold hearted and uncaring in regard to this insanity. Apparently, if I fester in white guilt, the problems of blacks will be solved.

    This is what white guilt does. It excuses and incites violence in black communities by crippling cops. Why racial resentment and hostility is supposed to be good for blacks is a mystery to me. Christ taught us to forgive… even our enemies… not to nurse our grievances and grudes. This is sound teaching for psychological health. We don’t forgive our enemies because we are weak or to excuse past injustices. We forgive for our own sake, so that we are not consumed and destroyed by the desire for revenge.

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    • Agree: Luke Lea
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  10. eD says:
    @Josh
    Is it possible that the deep state intentionally picked terrible cases to publicize so that they could punish cops for simply doing their job?. Punishing cops that were actually guilty of something egregious wouldn't have had the same effect. There is also the added propaganda value of gaslighting people who figure out what actually happened and the divisions this creates in society. Thesis and antithesis with synthesis being, idk, maybe a nationalized police force or gun laws or something. Too conspiratorial?

    Josh, one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I’ve seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting against, can ramp up “law and order” measures to handle the fallout, and make sure that homeowners in neighborhoods they want to develop sell their houses cheaply when they flee to the suburbs.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Luke Lea
    "one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I’ve seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting. . ."

    I am coming more and more to this conclusion myself. Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world. I doubt that our corporate elites planned it that way but they can certainly appreciate the advantage of these so-called progressive ideas. Look at how they got on board with the NFL black players' protests against the American flag and the national anthem.

    Meanwhile self-described progressives seem more and more comfortable with corporate globalism and the new multicultural, multiracial elite that guides it. Look how both sides condemned Trump's speech in Poland in defense of Western civilization. It's a match made in hell. One side gets to preen while the other side gets the green. Social and cultural disintegration is a feature not a bug. Of course this is a foolish, irresponsible way to run the world, but these people are not thinking about the long run consequences for future generations.

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  11. tyrone says:

    come on Steve that’s not a graph it’s El Capitan at sunset :)

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  12. Jake says:

    Liberals always draw the wrong conclusion even after they allow themselves to see most of the facts. In this case, the standard Liberal conclusion will be: to prevent Freddie Gray aftereffects, first we stop using any force whatsoever to arrest black criminals and then when we must arrest, we apologize to The Community and plead with it to see that we made the arrest for its safety, and then if The Community feels oppressed, we send in an army of social workers immediately, listening carefully and agreeing that the nation should destroy every Confederate statues, every statue of white person who lived in a slave state, as well as those of Christopher Columbus and Joan of Arc.

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  13. @Josh
    Is it possible that the deep state intentionally picked terrible cases to publicize so that they could punish cops for simply doing their job?. Punishing cops that were actually guilty of something egregious wouldn't have had the same effect. There is also the added propaganda value of gaslighting people who figure out what actually happened and the divisions this creates in society. Thesis and antithesis with synthesis being, idk, maybe a nationalized police force or gun laws or something. Too conspiratorial?

    There’s an element of that, it makes Whites instinctively take the side of the cops.

    Cops kill and abuse tons and tons of Whites but nobody says a thing. Barely any WN even mention this. Given White share of the criminal population we are actually the ones getting disproportionately killed by police and additionally, we have all seen the studies that show police are less likely to shoot a black suspect than a White one.

    But, for the most part Whites never ask why our police kill us at vastly higher rates than the police of other White countries with comparable White crime rates.

    Read More
    • Replies: @27 year old
    Missed the edit window

    Cops are the front line enforcers of the ruling class. The ruling class needs the police to have legitimacy among Whites. They cant afford for Whites to feel about police the way blacks feel about police.

    If your boss tells you you're getting laid off for an H1b and you take the leg of an aeron chair to the back of her skull, it's a regular cop, who's going to come make sure you are caught and made an example of. And he's going to do that because he knows your coworkers aren't going to attack him with any available implements as he comes through the door and he knows your White neighborhood is not a "no go zone".

    Fronting these bad cases makes the cops look good among Whites who are the real threat.

    , @Seamus Padraig
    I'm with you. It is a mystery to me why so many WNs still think the Law is their friend--especially after the disgraceful behavior of the cops in Charlottesville. As far as Southside Chicago or East Baltimore are concerned, I couldn't care less about the murder rate in those places. After all, they're just killing each other, and I don't live anywhere near there. But in recent years, I have noticed some pretty strong-arm police tactics being used in areas of the country far, far removed from any depressed urban areas. I personally fear the government more than I fear any ghetto. I am a lot more afraid of waking up in a police state one day than I am of getting shot by the Crips or the Bloods.
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  14. The graph is strikingly discontinuous. The social-science world congratulates the researcher Freddy Gray for designing such an enlightening before-and-after experiment.

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  15. TGGP says: • Website

    To be fair to the MSM, they have started acknowledging that the Ferguson Effect is real more recently. It helps that one of the academics they had first cited against the idea later realized it was real. Perhaps more academics should engage in what Timur Kuran might dub “belief falsification” and make shoddy arguments that the media will cite so that when they later reverse themselves it will be as someone the media has already treated as an authority who deserves our attention.

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    • Replies: @Buffalo Joe
    TGGP, If the MSM had recognized and commented on the Ferguson Effect, it would have strengthened Trumps candidacy, at Hillary's expense. Now, they will try to tie it into White Supremacy and Trump.
    , @silviosilver

    To be fair to the MSM, they have started acknowledging that the Ferguson Effect is real more recently
     
    There's your problem right there, TGGP. After all this, you still want to be fair to them. I know this just as a throwaway blog comment, but imo you (and people like you) don't know how to fight fire with fire. If this was a MSM headline about you, it'd read "TGGP waits two years before admitting Ferguson Effect is real." Subtle difference, but important. Accept no apologies, always keep them on the back foot. If you want to win, I mean.
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  16. Luke Lea says:
    @eD
    Josh, one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I've seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting against, can ramp up "law and order" measures to handle the fallout, and make sure that homeowners in neighborhoods they want to develop sell their houses cheaply when they flee to the suburbs.

    “one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I’ve seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting. . .”

    I am coming more and more to this conclusion myself. Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world. I doubt that our corporate elites planned it that way but they can certainly appreciate the advantage of these so-called progressive ideas. Look at how they got on board with the NFL black players’ protests against the American flag and the national anthem.

    Meanwhile self-described progressives seem more and more comfortable with corporate globalism and the new multicultural, multiracial elite that guides it. Look how both sides condemned Trump’s speech in Poland in defense of Western civilization. It’s a match made in hell. One side gets to preen while the other side gets the green. Social and cultural disintegration is a feature not a bug. Of course this is a foolish, irresponsible way to run the world, but these people are not thinking about the long run consequences for future generations.

    Read More
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    Divide and conquer. White people have nasty concepts like "fairness" between employer and employee, solidarity, start things like trades unions. Can't have that.

    Plus, if there's only one high-IQ minority, people might notice if they get wealthier than average.
    But if you've "been enriched", and you're just worried about whether your son will come back from school in one piece each day, you have less time for old stuff like social solidarity.
    , @yaqub the mad scientist
    Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world.

    I can think of few ways that leftists have watched life badly as their relentless pairing of capitalism with nationalism.
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  17. Tmanz says:

    That chart doesn’t make sense. Number of shootings/murders per day should always be a whole number. They’re doing some sort of weird averaging thing. That cliff looks like an artifact. I’d like to see the raw data.

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    • Replies: @AM
    This is the raw data, in a different format. Someone would have to do a chart and I don't have time.

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/police/homicides/

    2012: 217 homicides
    2013: 235 homicides
    2014: 211 homicides
    2015: 344 homicides
    2016: 318 homicides
    2017 to date: 264 homicides

    I think the daily averages chart is reasonably accurate, given raw annual numbers.

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  18. DrW says:

    I would call this graph dishonest, as it implies that the data indicate an identifiable date for a discontinuity in the data, where actually essentially the same graph would be drawn based on ANY arbitrary date around the same time period. While I do not dispute the cause-and-effect mechanism proposed in this blog post, I think the data visualization itself is fundamentally dishonest.

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    • Replies: @DrW
    Mind you -- I am not calling the AUTHOR dishonest. (I actually believe what he is trying to argue.) It's just that sometimes good-faith attempts at clear data visualization can sometimes end up crossing the line into statistical invalidity. People who read Steve's blog, I think, tend to be data-driven realists (as opposed to the anti-data liberals we often see who live in some sort of fantasy land...) Nevertheless, we still need to be vigilant in our enthusiasm to guard against abuses of data. I would urge all dataphiles to periodically review the seminal work, How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff , 1954) , so we can be on-guard against abuses of data (and not commit them ourselves).

    I don't know how to post a diagram in this forum (Steve - want to help me out here?), but I can show you a very similar graph in a simulation when I applied the same technique (switching from a previous-year running average to a subsequent-year running average) to a set of random data superimposed on a constant trend. The graph in this blog posting is very compelling in arguing for a phenomenon I believe is real -- but the graph is still completely meaningless, I am afraid.
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  19. @27 year old
    There's an element of that, it makes Whites instinctively take the side of the cops.

    Cops kill and abuse tons and tons of Whites but nobody says a thing. Barely any WN even mention this. Given White share of the criminal population we are actually the ones getting disproportionately killed by police and additionally, we have all seen the studies that show police are less likely to shoot a black suspect than a White one.

    But, for the most part Whites never ask why our police kill us at vastly higher rates than the police of other White countries with comparable White crime rates.

    Missed the edit window

    Cops are the front line enforcers of the ruling class. The ruling class needs the police to have legitimacy among Whites. They cant afford for Whites to feel about police the way blacks feel about police.

    If your boss tells you you’re getting laid off for an H1b and you take the leg of an aeron chair to the back of her skull, it’s a regular cop, who’s going to come make sure you are caught and made an example of. And he’s going to do that because he knows your coworkers aren’t going to attack him with any available implements as he comes through the door and he knows your White neighborhood is not a “no go zone”.

    Fronting these bad cases makes the cops look good among Whites who are the real threat.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Shouting Thomas
    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    I'm a retired programmer, mostly freelance and contract. Plenty of jobs I wanted went to H-1B hires.

    That's a bad thing, but it never made me want to hit somebody with a chair.

    There was always another job. And if I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to do.
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  20. @27 year old
    There's an element of that, it makes Whites instinctively take the side of the cops.

    Cops kill and abuse tons and tons of Whites but nobody says a thing. Barely any WN even mention this. Given White share of the criminal population we are actually the ones getting disproportionately killed by police and additionally, we have all seen the studies that show police are less likely to shoot a black suspect than a White one.

    But, for the most part Whites never ask why our police kill us at vastly higher rates than the police of other White countries with comparable White crime rates.

    I’m with you. It is a mystery to me why so many WNs still think the Law is their friend–especially after the disgraceful behavior of the cops in Charlottesville. As far as Southside Chicago or East Baltimore are concerned, I couldn’t care less about the murder rate in those places. After all, they’re just killing each other, and I don’t live anywhere near there. But in recent years, I have noticed some pretty strong-arm police tactics being used in areas of the country far, far removed from any depressed urban areas. I personally fear the government more than I fear any ghetto. I am a lot more afraid of waking up in a police state one day than I am of getting shot by the Crips or the Bloods.

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  21. anon says: • Disclaimer

    I’m not sure that the graph proves that there was some sharp phase-transition on April 27, 2015. Before that date, he averaged the previous year (which had a lower average homicide rate, which we knew); after that date, he averaged the following year (which had a higher average homicide rate, which we also knew). All he’s shown is that he changed how he calculated the murder rate on April 27.

    I don’t read any of the garbage social “science” “studies” that purport to show no Ferguson effect. Has anyone bothered to actually construct an appropriate statistical signal model and perform the proper inferences on it?

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  22. These two paragraphs by professor Moskos really stood out to me:

    “Few seem to care that minorities are disproportionately affected by the rise in murder. Regardless, police were told to back off and end quality-of-life policing. So police did.”

    “But, unlike the arrest-’em-all strategy formulated by former Mayor O’Malley (which worked at reducing crime a little) discretionary enforcement of low-level offenses targeting high-risk offenders reduced violence a lot. It also sent a proper message to non-criminals that your block and your stoop were not going to be surrendered to the bad boys of the hood.”

    I can’t remember where I read it but I believe it was Heather MacDonald on City Journal’s website that Mayor DiBlasio of NYC has already commanded NYC cops not to enforce “quality of life” crimes like public urination, pot smoking, littering, and turn-stile jumping. I think it’s only a matter of time before NYC returnss to it’s 1970′s conditions if a man like Diblasio continues in office.

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    • Agree: Buffalo Joe
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  23. @27 year old
    Missed the edit window

    Cops are the front line enforcers of the ruling class. The ruling class needs the police to have legitimacy among Whites. They cant afford for Whites to feel about police the way blacks feel about police.

    If your boss tells you you're getting laid off for an H1b and you take the leg of an aeron chair to the back of her skull, it's a regular cop, who's going to come make sure you are caught and made an example of. And he's going to do that because he knows your coworkers aren't going to attack him with any available implements as he comes through the door and he knows your White neighborhood is not a "no go zone".

    Fronting these bad cases makes the cops look good among Whites who are the real threat.

    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    I’m a retired programmer, mostly freelance and contract. Plenty of jobs I wanted went to H-1B hires.

    That’s a bad thing, but it never made me want to hit somebody with a chair.

    There was always another job. And if I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to do.

    Read More
    • Replies: @The Alarmist

    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?
     
    OK, you're in upper half of the sanity bell curve ... there's still the other half, which is roughly 35% of the population. Roughly 6.5% of the population is in the lower half of the black sanity bell curve. Immediately one begins to see that there are far fewer black targets to start with, and coupled with greater black cohesiveness, hinted at above by "no-go zones," there are fewer opportunities for cops to take the shot. Then there might be some hint of reverse affirmative action at play, where, because there is less stigma to shooting a white perp (cops are rarely on TV for shooting them, but invariably named and shamed for shooting a black perp),there is more likelihood that shot will be taken.
    , @27 year old


    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job

     

    Yeah... Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R

    If I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to
     
    How did your wife and kids feel about this?
    , @RadicalCenter
    For us, though, there's not "always another job." Not at all. How out of touch can you be?
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  24. anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    The idea is that blacks will act out and become violent when not heavily policed. In large parts of the country there’s hardly any police presence at all yet the white population has no crime wave. So it has to be emphasized that this is a black thing, a product of black psychology being different from that of whites. Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    Read More
    • Replies: @silviosilver

    The idea is that blacks will act out and become violent when not heavily policed. In large parts of the country there’s hardly any police presence at all yet the white population has no crime wave. So it has to be emphasized that this is a black thing, a product of black psychology being different from that of whites. Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.
     
    Curiously, in LA county, the black homicide victimization rate has continued to decline throughout all this, as has the white rate. It's almost entirely Latinos who are taking the brunt of the jump in homicide in LA - 268 victims in 2014, 346 in 2016. [LA Times Homicide Report]
    , @E. Rekshun
    Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    Black crime has created a huge jobs program for mostly White (and many black) cops, prosecutors, public defenders, and prison guards, and all the support and administration, and capital & operating supply expenditures that go along with that.

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  25. Dahlia says:

    the current high rate of homicides can be dated to April 27, 2015, the day of the BLM riot over Freddie Gray’s death. This may be the single most clear-cut case in the history of social science.

    Stunning. Absolutely stunning.

    I was thinking more about that lefty quant blog you posted about the other day and how absolutely necessary such a thing is for journalists given that they just don’t have the intuition for these things, numbers. What a shame that such a needed check is so flawed.

    Read More
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  26. @Shouting Thomas
    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    I'm a retired programmer, mostly freelance and contract. Plenty of jobs I wanted went to H-1B hires.

    That's a bad thing, but it never made me want to hit somebody with a chair.

    There was always another job. And if I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to do.

    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    OK, you’re in upper half of the sanity bell curve … there’s still the other half, which is roughly 35% of the population. Roughly 6.5% of the population is in the lower half of the black sanity bell curve. Immediately one begins to see that there are far fewer black targets to start with, and coupled with greater black cohesiveness, hinted at above by “no-go zones,” there are fewer opportunities for cops to take the shot. Then there might be some hint of reverse affirmative action at play, where, because there is less stigma to shooting a white perp (cops are rarely on TV for shooting them, but invariably named and shamed for shooting a black perp),there is more likelihood that shot will be taken.

    Read More
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  27. “We owe this to those who live there.”
    God bless and keep TWLT!

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  28. The Left has a plan for inner-city blacks. They call it compassion, or “space to destroy” but it’s actually something a bit more sinister. And blacks are too slow on the uptake to get it.

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  29. Anon says: • Website • Disclaimer

    Same everywhere. Tragic Feet than Magic Dirt.

    Obamascare or Obamadare

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  30. DrW says:
    @DrW
    I would call this graph dishonest, as it implies that the data indicate an identifiable date for a discontinuity in the data, where actually essentially the same graph would be drawn based on ANY arbitrary date around the same time period. While I do not dispute the cause-and-effect mechanism proposed in this blog post, I think the data visualization itself is fundamentally dishonest.

    Mind you — I am not calling the AUTHOR dishonest. (I actually believe what he is trying to argue.) It’s just that sometimes good-faith attempts at clear data visualization can sometimes end up crossing the line into statistical invalidity. People who read Steve’s blog, I think, tend to be data-driven realists (as opposed to the anti-data liberals we often see who live in some sort of fantasy land…) Nevertheless, we still need to be vigilant in our enthusiasm to guard against abuses of data. I would urge all dataphiles to periodically review the seminal work, How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff , 1954) , so we can be on-guard against abuses of data (and not commit them ourselves).

    I don’t know how to post a diagram in this forum (Steve – want to help me out here?), but I can show you a very similar graph in a simulation when I applied the same technique (switching from a previous-year running average to a subsequent-year running average) to a set of random data superimposed on a constant trend. The graph in this blog posting is very compelling in arguing for a phenomenon I believe is real — but the graph is still completely meaningless, I am afraid.

    Read More
    • Replies: @jim jones
    Turn it into an image and upload to Imgur
    , @anon
    He is getting roughly the same graph as he would have if he had simply done some sort of bar graph or histogram of annual figures with the years split on the April date he used.

    He has daily data, but there is a lot of variance at that level of granularity and there is also seasonality. You can see the same thing in the FBI Uniform Crime data which is summarized on a calendar year basis. However, it is no less reasonable to split the years on the date of the triggering event.

    You can read his blog where he goes into some detail regarding how he decided to pursue this atypical approach.

    Regarding your larger point -- I agree totally. Chicago had a law and policy change on 1/1/2016. Nice of the ACLU and legislature to make it easy for researchers. Getting detailed data is great but it generally hasn't been widely available to researchers without a statistical background until recently - and this is what you get. And, this is a work in progress -- exhibited on a blog. Another thing that I haven't seen much of. Not many academics want to share their unfinished work product on a topic of intense national interest.

    , @Weltanschauung
    I am afraid I have to agree. The visible cliff results from a discontinuity in the formula. Much as I agree with the point being made, this thumb on the scale is unacceptable.
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  31. Arclight says:

    For the left, all these additional dead black bodies are acceptable losses in the long march towards cultural and political domination of America.

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  32. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    Read More
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  33. edewd says:

    Peter Moskos’ blog is great, though he posts less frequently now. Fortunately he has started a podcast called Quality Policing. He is a liberal, but of the no-nonsense data driven kind. He became a Baltimore cop for a year as part of his Harvard PhD thesis. He wrote a book about it called Cop in the Hood.

    His father was Charles Moskos the military sociologist out of the University of Chicago who developed the “Don’t ask, Don’t tell” policy.

    Read More
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  34. @Josh
    Is it possible that the deep state intentionally picked terrible cases to publicize so that they could punish cops for simply doing their job?. Punishing cops that were actually guilty of something egregious wouldn't have had the same effect. There is also the added propaganda value of gaslighting people who figure out what actually happened and the divisions this creates in society. Thesis and antithesis with synthesis being, idk, maybe a nationalized police force or gun laws or something. Too conspiratorial?

    That makes the most sense. Pushing the case of the “gentle Giant” instead of Tamir Rice, trying to make people feel bad for a strong-arm robber who tried to steal a cop’s gun. It didn’t make sense to me. Your suggestion helps clarify things.

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  35. I think his graphing method might make it more dramatic than it really is. I think you could probably pick any day in the general vicinity and get a similar graph.

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  36. Jack D says:

    This graph is highly deceptive being some kind of trailing/leading average. It is NOT the actual # of shootings per day despite the title. There is no doubt that BLM was the trigger but this presentation is deceptive.

    Read More
    • Replies: @AM

    This graph is highly deceptive being some kind of trailing/leading average. It is NOT the actual # of shootings per day despite the title. There is no doubt that BLM was the trigger but this presentation is deceptive.
     
    My average daily balance in my bank account is actually not a bad reflection of what's actually in there month to month. I wish I could point to pay day as the norm, but alas, it's not.
    , @keuril
    It’s not deceptive at all. He states exactly what it is.
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  37. Anon says: • Disclaimer

    Not sure I understand why he seems to infer that “the suspension of one-person patrol units” is a bad thing. I thought that would be a good thing–much safer for cops. Wasn’t there a cop shot in OK in the 50s or early 60s that made two-man units standard?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Johan Schmidt
    A cop on his own will talk to the neighbourhood. Two cops will talk to each other.
    , @DRA
    Two person patrol "units", half as many "units" as two one person "units".
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  38. @Luke Lea
    "one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I’ve seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting. . ."

    I am coming more and more to this conclusion myself. Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world. I doubt that our corporate elites planned it that way but they can certainly appreciate the advantage of these so-called progressive ideas. Look at how they got on board with the NFL black players' protests against the American flag and the national anthem.

    Meanwhile self-described progressives seem more and more comfortable with corporate globalism and the new multicultural, multiracial elite that guides it. Look how both sides condemned Trump's speech in Poland in defense of Western civilization. It's a match made in hell. One side gets to preen while the other side gets the green. Social and cultural disintegration is a feature not a bug. Of course this is a foolish, irresponsible way to run the world, but these people are not thinking about the long run consequences for future generations.

    Divide and conquer. White people have nasty concepts like “fairness” between employer and employee, solidarity, start things like trades unions. Can’t have that.

    Plus, if there’s only one high-IQ minority, people might notice if they get wealthier than average.
    But if you’ve “been enriched”, and you’re just worried about whether your son will come back from school in one piece each day, you have less time for old stuff like social solidarity.

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  39. AM says:
    @Jack D
    This graph is highly deceptive being some kind of trailing/leading average. It is NOT the actual # of shootings per day despite the title. There is no doubt that BLM was the trigger but this presentation is deceptive.

    This graph is highly deceptive being some kind of trailing/leading average. It is NOT the actual # of shootings per day despite the title. There is no doubt that BLM was the trigger but this presentation is deceptive.

    My average daily balance in my bank account is actually not a bad reflection of what’s actually in there month to month. I wish I could point to pay day as the norm, but alas, it’s not.

    Read More
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  40. AM says:
    @Tmanz
    That chart doesn't make sense. Number of shootings/murders per day should always be a whole number. They're doing some sort of weird averaging thing. That cliff looks like an artifact. I'd like to see the raw data.

    This is the raw data, in a different format. Someone would have to do a chart and I don’t have time.

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/police/homicides/

    2012: 217 homicides
    2013: 235 homicides
    2014: 211 homicides
    2015: 344 homicides
    2016: 318 homicides
    2017 to date: 264 homicides

    I think the daily averages chart is reasonably accurate, given raw annual numbers.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    The problem is that April 26 2015 is a yearly average from 5/26/14 to 5/26/15. April 28 2015 is a yearly average from 5/28/15 to 5/28/16. This is just bad statistical practice.

    The Baltimore Sun does a month-by-month bar graph which may be of interest for 2015.
    , @Jack D
    Any time you have a rising (or a falling) trend and you pick a cutoff date and do a trailing average to the left and a leading average to the right, you are going to get the kind of cliff shown on the graph. This is an artifact of the graphing method and not (necessarily) a reflection of an actual cliff in the data that is anywhere near as dramatic.
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  41. keuril says:
    @Jack D
    This graph is highly deceptive being some kind of trailing/leading average. It is NOT the actual # of shootings per day despite the title. There is no doubt that BLM was the trigger but this presentation is deceptive.

    It’s not deceptive at all. He states exactly what it is.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    It's deceptive even if unintentionally so, as has been explained by other commenters. We would be vastly better off with simple raw data.
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  42. Peter Moskos says:

    Of course these efforts will disproportionately affected blacks. In a city where more than 90 percent of the murderers and murder victims are black, effective anti-violence policing will disproportionately affected blacks (Of course, bad policing will, too). The rough edges of the square can be sanded down, but this is a square that cannot be circled.

    I say:

    Baltimore has gone from being a European Christian port city that shipped out tobacco to an Africanized hellhole where Blacks blast each other with wild abandon. The Whites who live in Baltimore must be either low IQ dolts or nutcakes or both.

    The business model for tobacco cultivation must have taken a lot of labor. Greedy business men used the Black slaves to make bundles of loot on tobacco and other crops. Now Baltimore is harvesting a bushel of Black butchers who kill each other without much thought or care.

    The Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League celebrate the cop-hating Black thugs who infest the Black Lives Matter mob. They don’t seem to much care for the Blacks killed by other blacks.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Baltimore has gone from being a European Christian port city that shipped out tobacco to an Africanized hellhole...
     
    The problem is that "European Christians" (actually British) didn't want to lade that tobacco.

    Baltimore was Africanized centuries ago. But, as with bees, their threat emerges much later.
    , @Crawfurdmuir
    Mencken, in his autobiographical volume Heathen Days, wrote (in a chapter entitled "Finale to the Rogue's March," the following:

    "One of the first big stories I thus helped to cover was the hanging of four blackamoors at the Baltimore City Jail... The taste of the period... was for prose so colorful as to be virtually purple, and I must have laid on my pigments with a shovel, for the city editor gave me a very kind look when the proofs came down, and I had first call on every similar assignment afterward.

    "I found the work light and instructive, and there was plenty of it to do, for a movement was afoot in my native Maryland at the time to 'hang out,' as the phrase went, the whole criminal population of the state, at all events in the higher brackets. The notion that murderers, rapists and other such fiends in human form were simply unfortunates suffering from mental croups and catarrhs, and that the sensible way to deal with them was to send them to luxurious sanatoria, and there ply then with nourishing victuals, moral suasion and personality tests - that notion was still hidden in the womb of the future. The prevailing therapy was a great deal harsher: in fact it came down from the rough-and-ready days of Leviticus and Deuteronomy, and its only recent improvements had been developed during the California gold rush. It consisted, in brief, in pursuing the erring with cops, posses, and bloodhounds, putting them on trial before hanging judges, and then dispatching them as promptly as possible. As a young reporter I observed and recorded all branches of this régimen, and enjoyed them all. But I enjoyed especially the terminal part, for my lifelong interest in theology was already well developed, and it gave me a great kick to hobnob and palaver with the divines who comforted the doomed.

    "These divines, of course, were mainly Aframericans, for the great majority of culprits hanged below the Mason and Dixon Line were of that great race..."

    W.E.B. DuBois, likewise, confirms in his work The Philadelphia Negro, that vastly disproportionate numbers of crimes in that Northern city were committed by black offenders.

    This is a problem of long standing. It occurs to me that those old Marylanders were not far from the truth in their belief that crime could be "hanged out," but also that the effects of capital punishment frequently and rigorously applied would take dozens of generations to accomplish the proposed task. The European population, having been governed under a regimen of "infangthief and outfangthief, pit and gallows," since the early middle ages, had already experienced significant benefit from the culling of its criminal element; but Africans, coming from the savagery and squalor of a stone-age existence, had experienced no such effect from the practice, and were not exposed to it long enough to reflect much by 1900.

    Of course, since then, society has retreated in squeamishness from the social experiment of trying to "hang out" crime, thus forfeiting any gains it might have registered. Perhaps it is time to try again.

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  43. jim jones says:
    @DrW
    Mind you -- I am not calling the AUTHOR dishonest. (I actually believe what he is trying to argue.) It's just that sometimes good-faith attempts at clear data visualization can sometimes end up crossing the line into statistical invalidity. People who read Steve's blog, I think, tend to be data-driven realists (as opposed to the anti-data liberals we often see who live in some sort of fantasy land...) Nevertheless, we still need to be vigilant in our enthusiasm to guard against abuses of data. I would urge all dataphiles to periodically review the seminal work, How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff , 1954) , so we can be on-guard against abuses of data (and not commit them ourselves).

    I don't know how to post a diagram in this forum (Steve - want to help me out here?), but I can show you a very similar graph in a simulation when I applied the same technique (switching from a previous-year running average to a subsequent-year running average) to a set of random data superimposed on a constant trend. The graph in this blog posting is very compelling in arguing for a phenomenon I believe is real -- but the graph is still completely meaningless, I am afraid.

    Turn it into an image and upload to Imgur

    Read More
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  44. @Anon
    Not sure I understand why he seems to infer that "the suspension of one-person patrol units" is a bad thing. I thought that would be a good thing--much safer for cops. Wasn't there a cop shot in OK in the 50s or early 60s that made two-man units standard?

    A cop on his own will talk to the neighbourhood. Two cops will talk to each other.

    Read More
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  45. JosephB says:

    While I like the message of the graph, the approach seems deceptive. The graph is accurately labeled, but let’s consider the data at the discontinuity:
    i. The point to the left was computed from April 27, 2014 to April 27, 2015.
    ii. The point to the right was computed from April 28, 2015 to April 28, *2016*

    So shifting 1 point to the right on the x-axis moves the aggregation window by 1 entire year. For every value on the x-axis, advancing by 1 day advances the window by 1 day. Is anyone surprised there there is a honkin’ big jump when there is a large jump over the data used you compute the average? Those adjacent points have no data in common.

    It would have been much smoother, and much more typical, to give monthly totals, or a 30-day moving average.

    I concur there is almost certainly an effect, but believing so on the basis of this graph is bad reasoning.

    Not quite the same sin, but it seems on point: https://twitter.com/HoustonEuler/status/910905820610777088

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon
    Yea.

    It is roughly what you would get by graphing the annual shootings for the year ending April 27th, 2015 and the year ending April 27, 2016. This would have shown a huge increase.

    I think the motivation is that he wants to retain some of the granularity of the daily data which he has collected himself. That is, an absence of other trends in the data. But the daily data is noisy and there is seasonality so he uses a moving average.

    The fact that this has gotten so many comments on this blog -- who generally believe in his argument -- is actually a bit surprising in a politically oriented blog comment section. People are looking for more than just confirmation. Good.
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  46. benjaminl says:

    On a similar note, professor Barry Latzer on the Eric Garner case:

    https://www.city-journal.org/html/officer-doing-his-job-15449.html

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  47. @The Alarmist
    I wish we could stop calling it Social Science, which it ain't, and go back to calling it Social Studies.

    I wish we could stop calling it Social Science, which it ain’t, and go back to calling it Social Studies.

    Nothing ending in “studies” is a discipline, let alone a science.

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  48. @Charles Pewitt
    Peter Moskos says:

    Of course these efforts will disproportionately affected blacks. In a city where more than 90 percent of the murderers and murder victims are black, effective anti-violence policing will disproportionately affected blacks (Of course, bad policing will, too). The rough edges of the square can be sanded down, but this is a square that cannot be circled.

     

    I say:

    Baltimore has gone from being a European Christian port city that shipped out tobacco to an Africanized hellhole where Blacks blast each other with wild abandon. The Whites who live in Baltimore must be either low IQ dolts or nutcakes or both.

    The business model for tobacco cultivation must have taken a lot of labor. Greedy business men used the Black slaves to make bundles of loot on tobacco and other crops. Now Baltimore is harvesting a bushel of Black butchers who kill each other without much thought or care.

    The Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League celebrate the cop-hating Black thugs who infest the Black Lives Matter mob. They don't seem to much care for the Blacks killed by other blacks.

    Baltimore has gone from being a European Christian port city that shipped out tobacco to an Africanized hellhole…

    The problem is that “European Christians” (actually British) didn’t want to lade that tobacco.

    Baltimore was Africanized centuries ago. But, as with bees, their threat emerges much later.

    Read More
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  49. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @keuril
    It’s not deceptive at all. He states exactly what it is.

    It’s deceptive even if unintentionally so, as has been explained by other commenters. We would be vastly better off with simple raw data.

    Read More
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  50. @Shouting Thomas
    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    I'm a retired programmer, mostly freelance and contract. Plenty of jobs I wanted went to H-1B hires.

    That's a bad thing, but it never made me want to hit somebody with a chair.

    There was always another job. And if I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to do.

    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job

    Yeah… Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R

    If I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to

    How did your wife and kids feel about this?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar


    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job
     
    Yeah… Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R
     
    Yeah, like increased domestic competition is somehow easier to navigate than increased foreign competition.

    How are you any different from the SJWs and their mascots who think whites and "males" have it easy? You see privilege in everyone but yourself.
    , @Shouting Thomas
    My wife and kids liked it fine when I was home. Life is improved when there's somebody home to cook and to greet the kids when they get home from school.

    There's a lot more to life than having a job. I worked so that I could enjoy life, enjoy my wife and family and do the things I wanted to do, not because working was a glorious thing to do.

    The longest I ever sat on the sidelines between contracts was probably two months. My wife and I took that into consideration in how we budgeted our income.

    Your emotional intemperance suggests problems that employers can easily discern in you in the course of an interview. That might have a lot more to do with your frustration with employment than anything else.

    Nobody wants a resentful hothead on the job.
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  51. @TGGP
    To be fair to the MSM, they have started acknowledging that the Ferguson Effect is real more recently. It helps that one of the academics they had first cited against the idea later realized it was real. Perhaps more academics should engage in what Timur Kuran might dub "belief falsification" and make shoddy arguments that the media will cite so that when they later reverse themselves it will be as someone the media has already treated as an authority who deserves our attention.

    TGGP, If the MSM had recognized and commented on the Ferguson Effect, it would have strengthened Trumps candidacy, at Hillary’s expense. Now, they will try to tie it into White Supremacy and Trump.

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  52. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @DrW
    Mind you -- I am not calling the AUTHOR dishonest. (I actually believe what he is trying to argue.) It's just that sometimes good-faith attempts at clear data visualization can sometimes end up crossing the line into statistical invalidity. People who read Steve's blog, I think, tend to be data-driven realists (as opposed to the anti-data liberals we often see who live in some sort of fantasy land...) Nevertheless, we still need to be vigilant in our enthusiasm to guard against abuses of data. I would urge all dataphiles to periodically review the seminal work, How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff , 1954) , so we can be on-guard against abuses of data (and not commit them ourselves).

    I don't know how to post a diagram in this forum (Steve - want to help me out here?), but I can show you a very similar graph in a simulation when I applied the same technique (switching from a previous-year running average to a subsequent-year running average) to a set of random data superimposed on a constant trend. The graph in this blog posting is very compelling in arguing for a phenomenon I believe is real -- but the graph is still completely meaningless, I am afraid.

    He is getting roughly the same graph as he would have if he had simply done some sort of bar graph or histogram of annual figures with the years split on the April date he used.

    He has daily data, but there is a lot of variance at that level of granularity and there is also seasonality. You can see the same thing in the FBI Uniform Crime data which is summarized on a calendar year basis. However, it is no less reasonable to split the years on the date of the triggering event.

    You can read his blog where he goes into some detail regarding how he decided to pursue this atypical approach.

    Regarding your larger point — I agree totally. Chicago had a law and policy change on 1/1/2016. Nice of the ACLU and legislature to make it easy for researchers. Getting detailed data is great but it generally hasn’t been widely available to researchers without a statistical background until recently – and this is what you get. And, this is a work in progress — exhibited on a blog. Another thing that I haven’t seen much of. Not many academics want to share their unfinished work product on a topic of intense national interest.

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  53. Baltimore had a black mayor, Stephanie Rawlings-Blake and Marilyn Mosby as the AG. Together they encouraged the black community to protest and riot because of Freddie Gray’s death. Obama weighed in on these police-black victim cases, as did Hillary, on the side of the “victim.” The DNC invited the mothers of police shooting victims to share the stage at their convention. Can’t get a much higher validation of your misbehavior than that.

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  54. @Luke Lea
    "one of the more plausible conspiracy theories I’ve seen is that the Deep State deliberately inflates racial tensions (dictatorships in other countries have been known to do this among their own ethnic groups). That way they keep the various parts of the working class from uniting. . ."

    I am coming more and more to this conclusion myself. Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world. I doubt that our corporate elites planned it that way but they can certainly appreciate the advantage of these so-called progressive ideas. Look at how they got on board with the NFL black players' protests against the American flag and the national anthem.

    Meanwhile self-described progressives seem more and more comfortable with corporate globalism and the new multicultural, multiracial elite that guides it. Look how both sides condemned Trump's speech in Poland in defense of Western civilization. It's a match made in hell. One side gets to preen while the other side gets the green. Social and cultural disintegration is a feature not a bug. Of course this is a foolish, irresponsible way to run the world, but these people are not thinking about the long run consequences for future generations.

    Identity politics is the perfect vehicle to divide and conquer the electoral majority of working-class people, just as multiculturalism, by eliminating cultural unity and hence any concept of nationhood itself, opens the way for capital to circulate freely around the world.

    I can think of few ways that leftists have watched life badly as their relentless pairing of capitalism with nationalism.

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  55. @27 year old


    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job

     

    Yeah... Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R

    If I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to
     
    How did your wife and kids feel about this?

    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job

    Yeah… Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R

    Yeah, like increased domestic competition is somehow easier to navigate than increased foreign competition.

    How are you any different from the SJWs and their mascots who think whites and “males” have it easy? You see privilege in everyone but yourself.

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  56. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @JosephB
    While I like the message of the graph, the approach seems deceptive. The graph is accurately labeled, but let's consider the data at the discontinuity:
    i. The point to the left was computed from April 27, 2014 to April 27, 2015.
    ii. The point to the right was computed from April 28, 2015 to April 28, *2016*

    So shifting 1 point to the right on the x-axis moves the aggregation window by 1 entire year. For every value on the x-axis, advancing by 1 day advances the window by 1 day. Is anyone surprised there there is a honkin' big jump when there is a large jump over the data used you compute the average? Those adjacent points have no data in common.

    It would have been much smoother, and much more typical, to give monthly totals, or a 30-day moving average.

    I concur there is almost certainly an effect, but believing so on the basis of this graph is bad reasoning.

    Not quite the same sin, but it seems on point: https://twitter.com/HoustonEuler/status/910905820610777088

    Yea.

    It is roughly what you would get by graphing the annual shootings for the year ending April 27th, 2015 and the year ending April 27, 2016. This would have shown a huge increase.

    I think the motivation is that he wants to retain some of the granularity of the daily data which he has collected himself. That is, an absence of other trends in the data. But the daily data is noisy and there is seasonality so he uses a moving average.

    The fact that this has gotten so many comments on this blog — who generally believe in his argument — is actually a bit surprising in a politically oriented blog comment section. People are looking for more than just confirmation. Good.

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  57. anon says: • Disclaimer

    Per the FBI tables, 2014 Homicides in Baltimore totaled 211 and 2015 homicides were 344. A 64% increase.

    Something happened and we saw it on Television. I’m convinced.

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  58. Looks convincing — he could do a Chow test for a structural break.

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  59. @DrW
    Mind you -- I am not calling the AUTHOR dishonest. (I actually believe what he is trying to argue.) It's just that sometimes good-faith attempts at clear data visualization can sometimes end up crossing the line into statistical invalidity. People who read Steve's blog, I think, tend to be data-driven realists (as opposed to the anti-data liberals we often see who live in some sort of fantasy land...) Nevertheless, we still need to be vigilant in our enthusiasm to guard against abuses of data. I would urge all dataphiles to periodically review the seminal work, How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff , 1954) , so we can be on-guard against abuses of data (and not commit them ourselves).

    I don't know how to post a diagram in this forum (Steve - want to help me out here?), but I can show you a very similar graph in a simulation when I applied the same technique (switching from a previous-year running average to a subsequent-year running average) to a set of random data superimposed on a constant trend. The graph in this blog posting is very compelling in arguing for a phenomenon I believe is real -- but the graph is still completely meaningless, I am afraid.

    I am afraid I have to agree. The visible cliff results from a discontinuity in the formula. Much as I agree with the point being made, this thumb on the scale is unacceptable.

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  60. @Charles Pewitt
    Peter Moskos says:

    Of course these efforts will disproportionately affected blacks. In a city where more than 90 percent of the murderers and murder victims are black, effective anti-violence policing will disproportionately affected blacks (Of course, bad policing will, too). The rough edges of the square can be sanded down, but this is a square that cannot be circled.

     

    I say:

    Baltimore has gone from being a European Christian port city that shipped out tobacco to an Africanized hellhole where Blacks blast each other with wild abandon. The Whites who live in Baltimore must be either low IQ dolts or nutcakes or both.

    The business model for tobacco cultivation must have taken a lot of labor. Greedy business men used the Black slaves to make bundles of loot on tobacco and other crops. Now Baltimore is harvesting a bushel of Black butchers who kill each other without much thought or care.

    The Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League celebrate the cop-hating Black thugs who infest the Black Lives Matter mob. They don't seem to much care for the Blacks killed by other blacks.

    Mencken, in his autobiographical volume Heathen Days, wrote (in a chapter entitled “Finale to the Rogue’s March,” the following:

    “One of the first big stories I thus helped to cover was the hanging of four blackamoors at the Baltimore City Jail… The taste of the period… was for prose so colorful as to be virtually purple, and I must have laid on my pigments with a shovel, for the city editor gave me a very kind look when the proofs came down, and I had first call on every similar assignment afterward.

    “I found the work light and instructive, and there was plenty of it to do, for a movement was afoot in my native Maryland at the time to ‘hang out,’ as the phrase went, the whole criminal population of the state, at all events in the higher brackets. The notion that murderers, rapists and other such fiends in human form were simply unfortunates suffering from mental croups and catarrhs, and that the sensible way to deal with them was to send them to luxurious sanatoria, and there ply then with nourishing victuals, moral suasion and personality tests – that notion was still hidden in the womb of the future. The prevailing therapy was a great deal harsher: in fact it came down from the rough-and-ready days of Leviticus and Deuteronomy, and its only recent improvements had been developed during the California gold rush. It consisted, in brief, in pursuing the erring with cops, posses, and bloodhounds, putting them on trial before hanging judges, and then dispatching them as promptly as possible. As a young reporter I observed and recorded all branches of this régimen, and enjoyed them all. But I enjoyed especially the terminal part, for my lifelong interest in theology was already well developed, and it gave me a great kick to hobnob and palaver with the divines who comforted the doomed.

    “These divines, of course, were mainly Aframericans, for the great majority of culprits hanged below the Mason and Dixon Line were of that great race…”

    W.E.B. DuBois, likewise, confirms in his work The Philadelphia Negro, that vastly disproportionate numbers of crimes in that Northern city were committed by black offenders.

    This is a problem of long standing. It occurs to me that those old Marylanders were not far from the truth in their belief that crime could be “hanged out,” but also that the effects of capital punishment frequently and rigorously applied would take dozens of generations to accomplish the proposed task. The European population, having been governed under a regimen of “infangthief and outfangthief, pit and gallows,” since the early middle ages, had already experienced significant benefit from the culling of its criminal element; but Africans, coming from the savagery and squalor of a stone-age existence, had experienced no such effect from the practice, and were not exposed to it long enough to reflect much by 1900.

    Of course, since then, society has retreated in squeamishness from the social experiment of trying to “hang out” crime, thus forfeiting any gains it might have registered. Perhaps it is time to try again.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    I read Manchester's book on Mencken. Manchester said Mencken taught him how to use a semicolon properly. I believe it was just by Manchester reading how Mencken used a semicolon; not by Mencken personally teaching Manchester how to use one.

    Mencken was a German who loved being German in a Baltimore and a Maryland that had filled up with Germans by the time he was born. Mencken rode out prohibition by stacking booze up to the rafters in his basement and just waiting out the drinkwater kooks who cooked up prohibition. They could have just stopped the rot gut coming in from Canada without spoiling everybody else's fun.

    Mencken loved to play in a brass band with his pals and then drink beer. Mencken was an interesting man. Most of us are too lazy nowadays to read deeply in the way that Mencken did.

    Germans everywhere are bemused by Blacks, I imagine. Mid-Atlantic Germans who have had extensive contact with Blacks are not judgemental of Southerners regarding how to live with Blacks.
    , @whoever
    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?
    From the Abstract:
    [P]acification proceeded slowly in Western Europe between the 5th and 11th centuries, being hindered by the rudimentary nature of law enforcement, the belief in a man's right to settle personal disputes as he saw fit, and the Church's opposition to the death penalty. These hindrances began to dissolve in the 11th century with a consensus by Church and State that the wicked should be punished so that the good may live in peace. Courts imposed the death penalty more and more often and, by the late Middle Ages, were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1.0% of all men of each generation, with perhaps just as many offenders dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. Meanwhile, the homicide rate plummeted from the 14th century to the 20th. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication, or extreme stress.

    (Bolding mine.)

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  61. DRA says:
    @Anon
    Not sure I understand why he seems to infer that "the suspension of one-person patrol units" is a bad thing. I thought that would be a good thing--much safer for cops. Wasn't there a cop shot in OK in the 50s or early 60s that made two-man units standard?

    Two person patrol “units”, half as many “units” as two one person “units”.

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  62. @27 year old


    >I’m a retired

    >There was always another job

     

    Yeah... Lol

    B O O M E R
    O
    O
    M
    E
    R

    If I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to
     
    How did your wife and kids feel about this?

    My wife and kids liked it fine when I was home. Life is improved when there’s somebody home to cook and to greet the kids when they get home from school.

    There’s a lot more to life than having a job. I worked so that I could enjoy life, enjoy my wife and family and do the things I wanted to do, not because working was a glorious thing to do.

    The longest I ever sat on the sidelines between contracts was probably two months. My wife and I took that into consideration in how we budgeted our income.

    Your emotional intemperance suggests problems that employers can easily discern in you in the course of an interview. That might have a lot more to do with your frustration with employment than anything else.

    Nobody wants a resentful hothead on the job.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Autochthon

    Your emotional intemperance suggests problems that employers can easily discern in you in the course of an interview. That might have a lot more to do with your frustration with employment than anything else.

    Nobody wants a resentful hothead on the job.
     

    Likewise, your lackadaisical insouciance about income suggests you have problems empathising with the vast majority of people, who rely on steady income to survive and for whom losing employment means homelessness and hunger rather than puttering around on a noisy, overpriced toy and playing at Mr. Mom. You are completely oblivious to the economic reality of the modern world (like most people your age), and full of smug, dismissive insults that those younger people struggling in the Hell your generation created are lazy and entitled.

    I do agree, howver that “nobody wants a resentful hothead man with the self-respect to assert himself on the job.” Much better a docile, brown helot to decrease wages and increase rents. Your generation would know all about that ploy, too.

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  63. @Crawfurdmuir
    Mencken, in his autobiographical volume Heathen Days, wrote (in a chapter entitled "Finale to the Rogue's March," the following:

    "One of the first big stories I thus helped to cover was the hanging of four blackamoors at the Baltimore City Jail... The taste of the period... was for prose so colorful as to be virtually purple, and I must have laid on my pigments with a shovel, for the city editor gave me a very kind look when the proofs came down, and I had first call on every similar assignment afterward.

    "I found the work light and instructive, and there was plenty of it to do, for a movement was afoot in my native Maryland at the time to 'hang out,' as the phrase went, the whole criminal population of the state, at all events in the higher brackets. The notion that murderers, rapists and other such fiends in human form were simply unfortunates suffering from mental croups and catarrhs, and that the sensible way to deal with them was to send them to luxurious sanatoria, and there ply then with nourishing victuals, moral suasion and personality tests - that notion was still hidden in the womb of the future. The prevailing therapy was a great deal harsher: in fact it came down from the rough-and-ready days of Leviticus and Deuteronomy, and its only recent improvements had been developed during the California gold rush. It consisted, in brief, in pursuing the erring with cops, posses, and bloodhounds, putting them on trial before hanging judges, and then dispatching them as promptly as possible. As a young reporter I observed and recorded all branches of this régimen, and enjoyed them all. But I enjoyed especially the terminal part, for my lifelong interest in theology was already well developed, and it gave me a great kick to hobnob and palaver with the divines who comforted the doomed.

    "These divines, of course, were mainly Aframericans, for the great majority of culprits hanged below the Mason and Dixon Line were of that great race..."

    W.E.B. DuBois, likewise, confirms in his work The Philadelphia Negro, that vastly disproportionate numbers of crimes in that Northern city were committed by black offenders.

    This is a problem of long standing. It occurs to me that those old Marylanders were not far from the truth in their belief that crime could be "hanged out," but also that the effects of capital punishment frequently and rigorously applied would take dozens of generations to accomplish the proposed task. The European population, having been governed under a regimen of "infangthief and outfangthief, pit and gallows," since the early middle ages, had already experienced significant benefit from the culling of its criminal element; but Africans, coming from the savagery and squalor of a stone-age existence, had experienced no such effect from the practice, and were not exposed to it long enough to reflect much by 1900.

    Of course, since then, society has retreated in squeamishness from the social experiment of trying to "hang out" crime, thus forfeiting any gains it might have registered. Perhaps it is time to try again.

    I read Manchester’s book on Mencken. Manchester said Mencken taught him how to use a semicolon properly. I believe it was just by Manchester reading how Mencken used a semicolon; not by Mencken personally teaching Manchester how to use one.

    Mencken was a German who loved being German in a Baltimore and a Maryland that had filled up with Germans by the time he was born. Mencken rode out prohibition by stacking booze up to the rafters in his basement and just waiting out the drinkwater kooks who cooked up prohibition. They could have just stopped the rot gut coming in from Canada without spoiling everybody else’s fun.

    Mencken loved to play in a brass band with his pals and then drink beer. Mencken was an interesting man. Most of us are too lazy nowadays to read deeply in the way that Mencken did.

    Germans everywhere are bemused by Blacks, I imagine. Mid-Atlantic Germans who have had extensive contact with Blacks are not judgemental of Southerners regarding how to live with Blacks.

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    • Replies: @Jack D
    German culture (and especially German Catholic culture and Maryland was a very Catholic state) has nothing against alcohol, especially beer which is considered to be "liquid bread" and thus an essential part of a working man's diet. Mencken was anti-religious and detested the Puritans and the Puritan streak in American culture. So you put this all together and of course Mencken thought that Prohibition was stupid.

    I wouldn't call Baltimore Mid-Atlantic. Maryland had been a slave state though it did not join the Confederacy and had a Southern culture with lots of blacks even before the Great Migration. The Maryland state song, to this day, refers to Lincoln as a tyrant:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland,_My_Maryland

    Baltimore, as a seaport, was more cosmopolitan but still it was a Southern city. They were not judgmental of Southerners because they WERE Southerners, complete with segregated schools and other aspects of Jim Crow.
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  64. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @AM
    This is the raw data, in a different format. Someone would have to do a chart and I don't have time.

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/police/homicides/

    2012: 217 homicides
    2013: 235 homicides
    2014: 211 homicides
    2015: 344 homicides
    2016: 318 homicides
    2017 to date: 264 homicides

    I think the daily averages chart is reasonably accurate, given raw annual numbers.

    The problem is that April 26 2015 is a yearly average from 5/26/14 to 5/26/15. April 28 2015 is a yearly average from 5/28/15 to 5/28/16. This is just bad statistical practice.

    The Baltimore Sun does a month-by-month bar graph which may be of interest for 2015.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    For 5/ read 4/ . My mistake.
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  65. @Shouting Thomas
    Why in the world would I commit violence over getting fired from a job?

    I'm a retired programmer, mostly freelance and contract. Plenty of jobs I wanted went to H-1B hires.

    That's a bad thing, but it never made me want to hit somebody with a chair.

    There was always another job. And if I had time off between contracts, I took advantage of it to enjoy life, ride my Harley and do the things I wanted to do.

    For us, though, there’s not “always another job.” Not at all. How out of touch can you be?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Shouting Thomas
    Yes, there is always another job if you're determined and clever. Maybe I'm just smarter, tougher and more determined than you guys.

    I've been retired for 5 years and I still get half a dozen job inquiries in my e-mail every day.

    Maybe you need to learn to present yourself better and to stop whining.

    Who in the hell told you this shit was supposed to be easy?
    , @Brutusale
    Is it your society's job to make itself relevant to you or your job to make yourself relevant to society?

    There's always another job. The one I have now I had to make for myself.
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  66. Jack D says:
    @Charles Pewitt
    I read Manchester's book on Mencken. Manchester said Mencken taught him how to use a semicolon properly. I believe it was just by Manchester reading how Mencken used a semicolon; not by Mencken personally teaching Manchester how to use one.

    Mencken was a German who loved being German in a Baltimore and a Maryland that had filled up with Germans by the time he was born. Mencken rode out prohibition by stacking booze up to the rafters in his basement and just waiting out the drinkwater kooks who cooked up prohibition. They could have just stopped the rot gut coming in from Canada without spoiling everybody else's fun.

    Mencken loved to play in a brass band with his pals and then drink beer. Mencken was an interesting man. Most of us are too lazy nowadays to read deeply in the way that Mencken did.

    Germans everywhere are bemused by Blacks, I imagine. Mid-Atlantic Germans who have had extensive contact with Blacks are not judgemental of Southerners regarding how to live with Blacks.

    German culture (and especially German Catholic culture and Maryland was a very Catholic state) has nothing against alcohol, especially beer which is considered to be “liquid bread” and thus an essential part of a working man’s diet. Mencken was anti-religious and detested the Puritans and the Puritan streak in American culture. So you put this all together and of course Mencken thought that Prohibition was stupid.

    I wouldn’t call Baltimore Mid-Atlantic. Maryland had been a slave state though it did not join the Confederacy and had a Southern culture with lots of blacks even before the Great Migration. The Maryland state song, to this day, refers to Lincoln as a tyrant:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland,_My_Maryland

    Baltimore, as a seaport, was more cosmopolitan but still it was a Southern city. They were not judgmental of Southerners because they WERE Southerners, complete with segregated schools and other aspects of Jim Crow.

    Read More
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  67. Jack D says:
    @AM
    This is the raw data, in a different format. Someone would have to do a chart and I don't have time.

    http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/police/homicides/

    2012: 217 homicides
    2013: 235 homicides
    2014: 211 homicides
    2015: 344 homicides
    2016: 318 homicides
    2017 to date: 264 homicides

    I think the daily averages chart is reasonably accurate, given raw annual numbers.

    Any time you have a rising (or a falling) trend and you pick a cutoff date and do a trailing average to the left and a leading average to the right, you are going to get the kind of cliff shown on the graph. This is an artifact of the graphing method and not (necessarily) a reflection of an actual cliff in the data that is anywhere near as dramatic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @res
    The key there is your "(necessarily)". In this case it looks like the cliff is real. A long term graph of weekly data would be best, but here is a 538 analysis showing both arrests and shootings and the step functions (in opposite directions) of both after Freddie Gray's funeral: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/charts-baltimore-crime-before-and-after-freddie-grays-funeral/

    Freddie Gray's funeral was Monday, April 27, 2015.

    In short, I think you and others are right to look at that graphic with a critical eye (and that technique certainly could be used to mislead), but I think in this case it was a reasonable way to emphasize the magnitude and consistency of the change from before to after. Though I would have preferred to see weekly data also presented to emphasize that was when the change really happened.
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  68. @RadicalCenter
    For us, though, there's not "always another job." Not at all. How out of touch can you be?

    Yes, there is always another job if you’re determined and clever. Maybe I’m just smarter, tougher and more determined than you guys.

    I’ve been retired for 5 years and I still get half a dozen job inquiries in my e-mail every day.

    Maybe you need to learn to present yourself better and to stop whining.

    Who in the hell told you this shit was supposed to be easy?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    You forgot to mention your lawn.

    How could you forget to mention your lawn?
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  69. @Danindc
    "We pay police, in part, to confront violent criminals in neighborhoods where more than 20 percent of all men are murdered"...is that true? That's crazy if so.

    16 years w Obama and Dubya as President- what a disaster. They both got their supporters killed in droves: Obama- black men and Dubya white Christian men (Iraq Attaq). Thanks for nothing.

    Steve, keep hammering the msm on this. I could eventually see a point where one of the blue check mark cowards grudgingly gives you some credit for highlighting these points. I do my part to try and shame them but I'm only one man. I'm only one man Steve! One man I tells ye!!!

    16 years w Obama and Dubya as President- what a disaster. They both got their supporters killed in droves: Obama- black men and Dubya white Christian men (Iraq Attaq). Thanks for nothing.

    Agree.

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  70. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @Anon
    The problem is that April 26 2015 is a yearly average from 5/26/14 to 5/26/15. April 28 2015 is a yearly average from 5/28/15 to 5/28/16. This is just bad statistical practice.

    The Baltimore Sun does a month-by-month bar graph which may be of interest for 2015.

    For 5/ read 4/ . My mistake.

    Read More
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  71. Glaivester says: • Website
    @Johan Schmidt
    Well the "dog that didn't bark" in support of your thesis was the manner in which the shooting of Tamir Rice failed to gain traction in the way that the others did, despite arguably being much worse optics for the police (not to say it was 100% clear cut one way or the other).

    Or how about the body cavity search of Charnesia Corley? That would seem to be something that BLM should have cared deeply about.

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  72. res says:
    @Jack D
    Any time you have a rising (or a falling) trend and you pick a cutoff date and do a trailing average to the left and a leading average to the right, you are going to get the kind of cliff shown on the graph. This is an artifact of the graphing method and not (necessarily) a reflection of an actual cliff in the data that is anywhere near as dramatic.

    The key there is your “(necessarily)”. In this case it looks like the cliff is real. A long term graph of weekly data would be best, but here is a 538 analysis showing both arrests and shootings and the step functions (in opposite directions) of both after Freddie Gray’s funeral: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/charts-baltimore-crime-before-and-after-freddie-grays-funeral/

    Freddie Gray’s funeral was Monday, April 27, 2015.

    In short, I think you and others are right to look at that graphic with a critical eye (and that technique certainly could be used to mislead), but I think in this case it was a reasonable way to emphasize the magnitude and consistency of the change from before to after. Though I would have preferred to see weekly data also presented to emphasize that was when the change really happened.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon
    The Baltimore Sun which AM linked gives monthly data which also bears out the hypothesis, and suits since the Gray thing was at the end of April.

    So the graph shows a real phenomenon, but in a tricky massaged way that undercuts its appeal.
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  73. whoever says: • Website
    @Crawfurdmuir
    Mencken, in his autobiographical volume Heathen Days, wrote (in a chapter entitled "Finale to the Rogue's March," the following:

    "One of the first big stories I thus helped to cover was the hanging of four blackamoors at the Baltimore City Jail... The taste of the period... was for prose so colorful as to be virtually purple, and I must have laid on my pigments with a shovel, for the city editor gave me a very kind look when the proofs came down, and I had first call on every similar assignment afterward.

    "I found the work light and instructive, and there was plenty of it to do, for a movement was afoot in my native Maryland at the time to 'hang out,' as the phrase went, the whole criminal population of the state, at all events in the higher brackets. The notion that murderers, rapists and other such fiends in human form were simply unfortunates suffering from mental croups and catarrhs, and that the sensible way to deal with them was to send them to luxurious sanatoria, and there ply then with nourishing victuals, moral suasion and personality tests - that notion was still hidden in the womb of the future. The prevailing therapy was a great deal harsher: in fact it came down from the rough-and-ready days of Leviticus and Deuteronomy, and its only recent improvements had been developed during the California gold rush. It consisted, in brief, in pursuing the erring with cops, posses, and bloodhounds, putting them on trial before hanging judges, and then dispatching them as promptly as possible. As a young reporter I observed and recorded all branches of this régimen, and enjoyed them all. But I enjoyed especially the terminal part, for my lifelong interest in theology was already well developed, and it gave me a great kick to hobnob and palaver with the divines who comforted the doomed.

    "These divines, of course, were mainly Aframericans, for the great majority of culprits hanged below the Mason and Dixon Line were of that great race..."

    W.E.B. DuBois, likewise, confirms in his work The Philadelphia Negro, that vastly disproportionate numbers of crimes in that Northern city were committed by black offenders.

    This is a problem of long standing. It occurs to me that those old Marylanders were not far from the truth in their belief that crime could be "hanged out," but also that the effects of capital punishment frequently and rigorously applied would take dozens of generations to accomplish the proposed task. The European population, having been governed under a regimen of "infangthief and outfangthief, pit and gallows," since the early middle ages, had already experienced significant benefit from the culling of its criminal element; but Africans, coming from the savagery and squalor of a stone-age existence, had experienced no such effect from the practice, and were not exposed to it long enough to reflect much by 1900.

    Of course, since then, society has retreated in squeamishness from the social experiment of trying to "hang out" crime, thus forfeiting any gains it might have registered. Perhaps it is time to try again.

    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?
    From the Abstract:
    [P]acification proceeded slowly in Western Europe between the 5th and 11th centuries, being hindered by the rudimentary nature of law enforcement, the belief in a man’s right to settle personal disputes as he saw fit, and the Church’s opposition to the death penalty. These hindrances began to dissolve in the 11th century with a consensus by Church and State that the wicked should be punished so that the good may live in peace. Courts imposed the death penalty more and more often and, by the late Middle Ages, were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1.0% of all men of each generation, with perhaps just as many offenders dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. Meanwhile, the homicide rate plummeted from the 14th century to the 20th. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication, or extreme stress.

    (Bolding mine.)

    Read More
    • Replies: @dc.sunsets
    I suspect that's coming.

    When the ability to borrow finally craters, and the flow of gibsmedats dries up completely, and the previously tolerant public realizes it, too, is in deep trouble, tolerating misbehavior will become a very rarely encountered notion.

    What is the explosion of Concealed Carry licenses but an expression in the belief of capital punishment applied at the scene of the crime? (Yes, I'm aware that those who carry guns shoot to live, not to kill, but George Zimmerman was not Dead Eye Dan and he certainly didn't come close to emulating John Wick of fictional fame.)
    , @Crawfurdmuir

    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?
     
    I'm not familiar with that reference - thank you for pointing it out. It is reassuring to know that others have come to a conclusion similar to my own.
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  74. @Shouting Thomas
    My wife and kids liked it fine when I was home. Life is improved when there's somebody home to cook and to greet the kids when they get home from school.

    There's a lot more to life than having a job. I worked so that I could enjoy life, enjoy my wife and family and do the things I wanted to do, not because working was a glorious thing to do.

    The longest I ever sat on the sidelines between contracts was probably two months. My wife and I took that into consideration in how we budgeted our income.

    Your emotional intemperance suggests problems that employers can easily discern in you in the course of an interview. That might have a lot more to do with your frustration with employment than anything else.

    Nobody wants a resentful hothead on the job.

    Your emotional intemperance suggests problems that employers can easily discern in you in the course of an interview. That might have a lot more to do with your frustration with employment than anything else.

    Nobody wants a resentful hothead on the job.

    Likewise, your lackadaisical insouciance about income suggests you have problems empathising with the vast majority of people, who rely on steady income to survive and for whom losing employment means homelessness and hunger rather than puttering around on a noisy, overpriced toy and playing at Mr. Mom. You are completely oblivious to the economic reality of the modern world (like most people your age), and full of smug, dismissive insults that those younger people struggling in the Hell your generation created are lazy and entitled.

    I do agree, howver that “nobody wants a resentful hothead man with the self-respect to assert himself on the job.” Much better a docile, brown helot to decrease wages and increase rents. Your generation would know all about that ploy, too.

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  75. Thales says:

    Seems like at some point they’d just run out of people to murder…

    Read More
    • Replies: @dc.sunsets

    Seems like at some point they’d just run out of people to murder…
     
    Planned Parenthood isn't yet that successful.
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  76. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @Shouting Thomas
    Yes, there is always another job if you're determined and clever. Maybe I'm just smarter, tougher and more determined than you guys.

    I've been retired for 5 years and I still get half a dozen job inquiries in my e-mail every day.

    Maybe you need to learn to present yourself better and to stop whining.

    Who in the hell told you this shit was supposed to be easy?

    You forgot to mention your lawn.

    How could you forget to mention your lawn?

    Read More
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  77. @TGGP
    To be fair to the MSM, they have started acknowledging that the Ferguson Effect is real more recently. It helps that one of the academics they had first cited against the idea later realized it was real. Perhaps more academics should engage in what Timur Kuran might dub "belief falsification" and make shoddy arguments that the media will cite so that when they later reverse themselves it will be as someone the media has already treated as an authority who deserves our attention.

    To be fair to the MSM, they have started acknowledging that the Ferguson Effect is real more recently

    There’s your problem right there, TGGP. After all this, you still want to be fair to them. I know this just as a throwaway blog comment, but imo you (and people like you) don’t know how to fight fire with fire. If this was a MSM headline about you, it’d read “TGGP waits two years before admitting Ferguson Effect is real.” Subtle difference, but important. Accept no apologies, always keep them on the back foot. If you want to win, I mean.

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  78. @anonymous
    The idea is that blacks will act out and become violent when not heavily policed. In large parts of the country there's hardly any police presence at all yet the white population has no crime wave. So it has to be emphasized that this is a black thing, a product of black psychology being different from that of whites. Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    The idea is that blacks will act out and become violent when not heavily policed. In large parts of the country there’s hardly any police presence at all yet the white population has no crime wave. So it has to be emphasized that this is a black thing, a product of black psychology being different from that of whites. Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    Curiously, in LA county, the black homicide victimization rate has continued to decline throughout all this, as has the white rate. It’s almost entirely Latinos who are taking the brunt of the jump in homicide in LA – 268 victims in 2014, 346 in 2016. [LA Times Homicide Report]

    Read More
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  79. @anonymous
    The idea is that blacks will act out and become violent when not heavily policed. In large parts of the country there's hardly any police presence at all yet the white population has no crime wave. So it has to be emphasized that this is a black thing, a product of black psychology being different from that of whites. Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    Blacks require a police babysitter. The tail wags the dog here and so much energy is poured into this bottomless pit.

    Black crime has created a huge jobs program for mostly White (and many black) cops, prosecutors, public defenders, and prison guards, and all the support and administration, and capital & operating supply expenditures that go along with that.

    Read More
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  80. Anon says: • Disclaimer
    @res
    The key there is your "(necessarily)". In this case it looks like the cliff is real. A long term graph of weekly data would be best, but here is a 538 analysis showing both arrests and shootings and the step functions (in opposite directions) of both after Freddie Gray's funeral: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/charts-baltimore-crime-before-and-after-freddie-grays-funeral/

    Freddie Gray's funeral was Monday, April 27, 2015.

    In short, I think you and others are right to look at that graphic with a critical eye (and that technique certainly could be used to mislead), but I think in this case it was a reasonable way to emphasize the magnitude and consistency of the change from before to after. Though I would have preferred to see weekly data also presented to emphasize that was when the change really happened.

    The Baltimore Sun which AM linked gives monthly data which also bears out the hypothesis, and suits since the Gray thing was at the end of April.

    So the graph shows a real phenomenon, but in a tricky massaged way that undercuts its appeal.

    Read More
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  81. @George
    "Peter Moskos, a former Baltimore cop and now an associate professor at John Jay College, created the graph above. From his blog Cop in the Hood"

    In Defense of Flogging 1st Edition
    by Peter Moskos (Author)

    Prisons impose tremendous costs, yet they're easily ignored. Criminals-- even low-level nonviolent offenders-- enter our dysfunctional criminal justice system and disappear into a morass that's safely hidden from public view. Our "tough on crime" political rhetoric offers us no way out, and prison reformers are too quickly dismissed as soft on criminals. Meanwhile, the taxpayer picks up the extraordinary and unnecessary bill.
    In Defense of Flogging presents a solution both radical and simple: give criminals a choice between incarceration and the lash. Flogging is punishment: quick, cheap, and honest.

    Noted criminologist Peter Moskos, in irrefutable style, shows the logic of the new system while highlighting flaws in the status quo. Flogging may be cruel, but In Defense of Flogging shows us that compared to our broken prison system, it is the lesser of two evils.

    Good enough. Flog ‘em.

    But on the 3rd strike, they get a one way trip to somewhere ELSE. Preferably an island. Preferably one where food grows on trees.

    Where said miscreant gets dropped off and forgotten. No return. No parole. No do-overs. No tax-paid bennies. You can’t live in civil society, you don’t get to continue preying on its members.

    I know, this won’t fly. I’m betting that once this long, debt-fueled boom ends and the snap-back to reality makes the Great Depression look sunny, capital punishment will make a phenomenal come-back, and do so for offenses far short of capital murder.

    Read More
    • Replies: @FPD72
    Sounds like Robert Heinlein's "Coventry."
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  82. @Thales
    Seems like at some point they'd just run out of people to murder...

    Seems like at some point they’d just run out of people to murder…

    Planned Parenthood isn’t yet that successful.

    Read More
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  83. @whoever
    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?
    From the Abstract:
    [P]acification proceeded slowly in Western Europe between the 5th and 11th centuries, being hindered by the rudimentary nature of law enforcement, the belief in a man's right to settle personal disputes as he saw fit, and the Church's opposition to the death penalty. These hindrances began to dissolve in the 11th century with a consensus by Church and State that the wicked should be punished so that the good may live in peace. Courts imposed the death penalty more and more often and, by the late Middle Ages, were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1.0% of all men of each generation, with perhaps just as many offenders dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. Meanwhile, the homicide rate plummeted from the 14th century to the 20th. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication, or extreme stress.

    (Bolding mine.)

    I suspect that’s coming.

    When the ability to borrow finally craters, and the flow of gibsmedats dries up completely, and the previously tolerant public realizes it, too, is in deep trouble, tolerating misbehavior will become a very rarely encountered notion.

    What is the explosion of Concealed Carry licenses but an expression in the belief of capital punishment applied at the scene of the crime? (Yes, I’m aware that those who carry guns shoot to live, not to kill, but George Zimmerman was not Dead Eye Dan and he certainly didn’t come close to emulating John Wick of fictional fame.)

    Read More
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  84. @whoever
    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?
    From the Abstract:
    [P]acification proceeded slowly in Western Europe between the 5th and 11th centuries, being hindered by the rudimentary nature of law enforcement, the belief in a man's right to settle personal disputes as he saw fit, and the Church's opposition to the death penalty. These hindrances began to dissolve in the 11th century with a consensus by Church and State that the wicked should be punished so that the good may live in peace. Courts imposed the death penalty more and more often and, by the late Middle Ages, were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1.0% of all men of each generation, with perhaps just as many offenders dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. Meanwhile, the homicide rate plummeted from the 14th century to the 20th. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication, or extreme stress.

    (Bolding mine.)

    Have you read Western Europe, State Formation, and Genetic Pacification by Frost and Harpending?

    I’m not familiar with that reference – thank you for pointing it out. It is reassuring to know that others have come to a conclusion similar to my own.

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  85. Brutusale says:
    @RadicalCenter
    For us, though, there's not "always another job." Not at all. How out of touch can you be?

    Is it your society’s job to make itself relevant to you or your job to make yourself relevant to society?

    There’s always another job. The one I have now I had to make for myself.

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  86. The Ferguson Effect, coming soon to Denver.

    The auditor’s report suggested that officers always record the birthday, gender and race of people they stop. The auditor also suggested that officers record the reason they stopped the person and the outcome. That kind of data could show whether an officer was, for example, pulling over a higher number of black drivers without citing them for any infraction.

    For the first time since 2002, Denver police will study this question about racial bias
    “The instrument we’re developing has all of those and many more items that we are going to collect,” Murray said of the auditor’s request.

    https://www.denverite.com/denver-police-will-collect-information-people-pull-not-without-concern-43387/?src=parsely

    Denver PD officer’s like those across the USA have a choice, pull over that erratically driving Black man or head over to Krispy Kreme. Freakanomics says, Krispy Kreme is the best long term career choice.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anon

    That kind of data could show whether an officer was, for example, pulling over a higher number of black drivers without citing them for any infraction.
     
    This is exactly the thing that makes people hate cops. If you get pulled over and then a friendly warning -- not so bad. But if you demand a reason, then cops won't give warnings and the fines pile up. It is annoying as hell in wealthy suburbs. But for someone that is barely getting by and needs a car for work? If you don't pay these things, you end up with real problems.

    In Milwaukee, the Chief of Police has discussed their policy of not giving tickets in poor neighborhoods if possible. They have a reason .... but it is impossible to drive normally and not violate something. Plus poorer people are always having a broken tail light or something or other.
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  87. FPD72 says:
    @dc.sunsets
    Good enough. Flog 'em.

    But on the 3rd strike, they get a one way trip to somewhere ELSE. Preferably an island. Preferably one where food grows on trees.

    Where said miscreant gets dropped off and forgotten. No return. No parole. No do-overs. No tax-paid bennies. You can't live in civil society, you don't get to continue preying on its members.

    I know, this won't fly. I'm betting that once this long, debt-fueled boom ends and the snap-back to reality makes the Great Depression look sunny, capital punishment will make a phenomenal come-back, and do so for offenses far short of capital murder.

    Sounds like Robert Heinlein’s “Coventry.”

    Read More
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  88. George says:

    “Well, There’s Your Problem Right There, Baltimore”

    I think the problem is the massive spending on the GWOT, Blacks being both the first to be affected and the most belligerent. Why can’t Blacks be more like White people who stoicly accept the “White Death” only occasionally acting up by shooting up their workplace?

    Hey, race realists, do you suppose poor Blacks might be more adversely affected by austerity measures brought on by the forever war? Could it be that police brutality is a kind of labor saving technique needed because of austerity measures? The Philandro Castile traffic stop might have been precipitated by the need for revenue not concern about his brake light, or what a car load of Black people might be up to.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lugash
    Yes, it was all a diabolical plan hatched by Dick Cheney to finance our imperial wars of aggression with the whopping $5k collected over 15 years from Philando Castille. Forget about those 1300 whiteguys who had their dicks blown off, err, suffered "uro-genital injuries" in the Sandbox.

    The guy was a dimwit who couldn't figure out the rules of the road or parking regulations. Not a criminal who deserved to be shot, but not some persecuted figure.
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  89. Lugash says:
    @George
    "Well, There's Your Problem Right There, Baltimore"

    I think the problem is the massive spending on the GWOT, Blacks being both the first to be affected and the most belligerent. Why can't Blacks be more like White people who stoicly accept the "White Death" only occasionally acting up by shooting up their workplace?

    Hey, race realists, do you suppose poor Blacks might be more adversely affected by austerity measures brought on by the forever war? Could it be that police brutality is a kind of labor saving technique needed because of austerity measures? The Philandro Castile traffic stop might have been precipitated by the need for revenue not concern about his brake light, or what a car load of Black people might be up to.

    Yes, it was all a diabolical plan hatched by Dick Cheney to finance our imperial wars of aggression with the whopping $5k collected over 15 years from Philando Castille. Forget about those 1300 whiteguys who had their dicks blown off, err, suffered “uro-genital injuries” in the Sandbox.

    The guy was a dimwit who couldn’t figure out the rules of the road or parking regulations. Not a criminal who deserved to be shot, but not some persecuted figure.

    Read More
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  90. anon says: • Disclaimer
    @George Taylor
    The Ferguson Effect, coming soon to Denver.

    The auditor’s report suggested that officers always record the birthday, gender and race of people they stop. The auditor also suggested that officers record the reason they stopped the person and the outcome. That kind of data could show whether an officer was, for example, pulling over a higher number of black drivers without citing them for any infraction.

    For the first time since 2002, Denver police will study this question about racial bias
    “The instrument we’re developing has all of those and many more items that we are going to collect,” Murray said of the auditor’s request.
     

    https://www.denverite.com/denver-police-will-collect-information-people-pull-not-without-concern-43387/?src=parsely

    Denver PD officer's like those across the USA have a choice, pull over that erratically driving Black man or head over to Krispy Kreme. Freakanomics says, Krispy Kreme is the best long term career choice.

    That kind of data could show whether an officer was, for example, pulling over a higher number of black drivers without citing them for any infraction.

    This is exactly the thing that makes people hate cops. If you get pulled over and then a friendly warning — not so bad. But if you demand a reason, then cops won’t give warnings and the fines pile up. It is annoying as hell in wealthy suburbs. But for someone that is barely getting by and needs a car for work? If you don’t pay these things, you end up with real problems.

    In Milwaukee, the Chief of Police has discussed their policy of not giving tickets in poor neighborhoods if possible. They have a reason …. but it is impossible to drive normally and not violate something. Plus poorer people are always having a broken tail light or something or other.

    Read More
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