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WaPo: "Republican Hopefuls Agree: The Key to the White House Is Working-class Whites"

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As I pointed out right after the 2012 election, Romney-Ryan did very poorly with blue-collar whites in the numerous states around the Great Lakes that the GOP lost fairly narrowly in the Electoral College. I noted on VDARE on November 12, 2012:

The other six states in this region, however, all slipped through [Romney's] fingers: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

In each of these Slippery Six states, Romney won at least 45 percent of the vote. But he still wound up a cumulative 0 for 80 in Electoral Votes. If Romney, rather than Obama, had won all six, he’d be President.

The Slippery Six are states with old-fashioned white and black voting demographics, still with a smattering of old time unionized factory workers. Hispanics, much less Asians, are, for the moment, still a minor matter politically.

According to Reuters, Romney lost the Slippery Six states because (exactly as VDARE.com warned repeatedly while digging white share data out of reluctant tracking polls, see here and here and here), he did badly there among white voters—winning only 52 percent, six points worse than nationally.

Most notably, Romney did terribly among the white working class in these six states. Thus he did only two points worse among whites with college degrees in the Slippery Six than he did nationally. But among the white “some college” component, he came in six points worse than nationally. And among the white “no college” voters, he performed 11 points worse than across the country—finishing tied with Obama.

In fact (although sample sizes are getting small), Romney even appears to have suffered the ignominy of a reverse gender gap among no-college whites in the Slippery Six—winning 51.4 percent of the women, but only 48 percent of the white working class men.

The Media and the GOP Establishment famously took the opposite lesson: that the winning strategy in 2016 would be for the GOP to jettison the interests of working class whites by promoting more Mexican and Central American immigration.

After all, in the swing state of Florida there is nothing that Cuban and Puerto Rican voters care more about than the travails of their Mexican hermanos. And picking up a few more Mexican votes in California and in Texas would, while doing nothing in the Electoral College, make the popular vote margin look better in 2016. I mean, you can’t argue with Political Science.

N0w, however, what Peter Brimelow has long called the “Sailer Strategy” seems to be ascendant, since the collective wisdom of the Republican Establishment — embodied in the implicit promise of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to “¡Make America more like Latin America!” — has proved strangely unedifying to likely Republican voters in polls. From the Washington Post:

Republican hopefuls agree: The key to the White House is working-class whites

By Philip Rucker and Robert Costa January 13 at 6:00 AM

MANCHESTER, N.H. — … Their encounter illustrated the urgent imperative of Republicans — historically the party of business, money and power — to broaden their coalition with many more white working-class voters. As the nation diversifies and the GOP struggles to adapt, the presidential hopefuls see this demographic bloc as the key to taking back the White House.

“Some of them have never voted,” Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said. “It’s staggering. If they can be convinced to come out and vote, we win.”

There has been a debate within the party — and the political class — about whether Republicans need to diversify to win or whether it just needs to attract more of its core constituencies. So far in 2016, led by Cruz and Donald Trump, the election has moved decisively toward the latter. The exceptions, such as Jeb Bush and Lindsey O. Graham, are either out of the race or on the edges of it.

Trump is making the most visceral, raw appeal to people who feel left out of the economic recovery and ignored by the political establishment. He espouses hard-line views on immigration that border on nativism, protectionist trade policies and a tough approach with countries like China, Japan and Mexico that he portrays as thieves of U.S. manufacturing jobs.

Cruz, a Texas senator, is taking a similar tack, especially on immigration, airing a provocative television ad last week that depicts illegal immigrants racing across the U.S. border in suits and high heels to steal jobs from Americans.

By contrast, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is trying to connect with working-class voters through policy ideas.

Obviously, advocating more restrictionist immigration and trade policies aren’t policy, they’re just nativism.

He advocates expanding vocational education and sings the virtues of manual labor. Bush’s aspirational economic message echoes Rubio’s.

Aspirational hoo-ha about American exceptionalism is policy. Concrete proposals about immigration and trade are hate.

 

158 Comments to "WaPo: "Republican Hopefuls Agree: The Key to the White House Is Working-class Whites""

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  1. It’s only a matter of time before the term “Sailer strategy” is being used on cable talk show panels. Someone may even point out that a candidate only has to increase his share of the white vote a fraction of what he’d have to increase the hispanic vote since whites are still a large majority of voters, rebutting the nonsense that minorities decide national elections.

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  2. Steve jests but the left really does use the word “hate” in an extremely excessive manner.

    It’s a shame too because the word loses all meaning and it’s harder to distinguish between legitimate hate and a simple disregard for PC.

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  3. Not just the slippery six, but also Maine, New Hampshire, Washington, and Oregon have similar demographics and voters. With the slippery six it’s over 100 electoral votes.

    Key indicator in my mind- they are not particularly religious and are turned off by the Republican Evangelicals. Will they warm to Trump?

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  4. It worked for Nixon and Reagan. And Eisenhower, too. Nothing new here.

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  5. Methinks the “Sailer Strategy” preceded the Romney post-mortem in 2012. I can’t recall when I first read it here but perhaps Steve can tell us when he first put it into print.

    Whenever it was, it is a pity the stupid party people look at him as “not one of us Dear” whereas Trump is far more pragmatic and takes what he needs from wherever he finds it.

    And that’s one reason why the establishment types are consistent losers to coin a phrase.

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  6. Brimelow was using the term “Sailer Strategy” for headlines as early as, I think, 2002 or 2003.

  7. Aaaand now Mr Roe has been practicing in front of the mirror, saying “Steven the Sailor? And that’s a blogger, you say … ? Hmmm, no, haven’t heard of him …” making sure he looks sincere saying it.

    If this keeps up, you may have to change your blog name from “iSteve” to “Planet X” …

  8. Ike carried Cook County in both 1952 and 1956, even Chicago itself in 1956. Chicago then was still “the city of the big shoulders”, with stockyards and steel mills on the South Side and many small factories on the North Side. Total population was about 80% white.

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  9. So what Trump is doing “borders on nativism”? I would like to cross that border!

  10. says:
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    sings the virtues of manual labor

    Yeah, that’s really the best strategy for electoral success in a modern democratic welfare state….

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  11. ISteve needs to find the really funny angle to Penn and King Pin. Apparently King Pin didn’t know who Penn was, and I don’t understand why anyone thinks he’s very talented but I kinda admire the guy. I mean consider how fun it would feel to not know if taking that picture was even legal.

  12. Trump will win Pennsylvania if he is the Republican nominee….besides getting more whites to vote for him, a significant number of Blacks in PA will vote for Trump.

    anyone watch the Diamond and Silk Trump for Stump videos ?

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  13. Leftist conservative [AKA "radical rebel"]
    says:
    • Website     Show CommentNext New Comment

    yeah, that is a good post…very nice exposure of the built-in default vocabulary used in the media.

    But turnabout is fair play. Why not talk about some of the bogus language tricks used by GOP candidates and rightwing pundits? Here’s one example: the use of the phrase ‘conservative values’.
    Whenever I hear those words in media I know I am listening to a traitor.

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  14. What still confuses me is how all these political consultants get it wrong. They get ten of millions from rich businessmen and think that someone like Jeb Bush is a good candidate. They probably thought it was a genius plan to pander to Mexicans yet none of them managed to ask about why whites should vote for him.

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  15. Longtime readers (12/2006 for me) have been waiting for this election cycle a long time. A decade plus of Steve’s work is bearing fruit.

    In the 1800s this fat bearded man named Karl Marx emitted ideas that had changed half the world within 50 years of his death. Interesting to see what Steve can do.

    Unfortunately, Steve has not put it all together coherently. His major (3 weeks) book effort in 2008 was less well written than most of his blog posts.

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  16. says:
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    And it worked for FDR 4 times, and would’ve worked for him a 5th time.

    The old New Deal coalition of Southerners and northern, Catholic, urban, working-class whites dominated electorally for a long time. Southerners defected from the Democratic Party en masse to become a solid voting bloc for the GOP, but the northern part of the old New Deal coalition, while disaffected with the Dems, hasn’t become a solid regular voting bloc for the GOP like the South has. Turning it into a solid regular voting bloc and recreating the old New Deal coalition for the GOP should make the GOP dominant electorally.

  17. says:
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    It used to be possible for people like this to live decent lives, with unions protecting their job benefits, insurance covering their medical care, and pensions securing their retirement. But Republicans took all of that away, so a few ultra-rich people could be a little bit richer. We know what Trump thinks of ‘losers’, so how can they think he will help them?

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  18. Everybody here ridicules the idea that Hispanics are ‘natural Republicans’ but are completely on board with the idea that poor Whites are.

    I’m not so sure.

    1/ Large numbers of poor Whites have the same work, welfare, drug, and marital histories that would make them perfect Democrat voters.

    2/ Steve used to show a chart that linked a state’s tendency to vote GOP with the length of marriage of White women.

    Well, if you look at marriage lengths of exactly the people who hold the ‘key’ to the election this doesn’t look so good.

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  19. Scott Adams, a fellow noticer, distills Trump’s pattern down to its core today.

    As a candidate he is …. wait for it … a citizenist.

    “If you knew nothing of Trump’s history, and your first exposure to him involved hearing his incendiary remarks about people who are coincidentally brown, that has to raise all kinds of alarms. And it should.

    But over time, citizens will see that Trump’s policy statements consistently favor American citizens over non-citizens. That’s his pattern. It is also the job description of the President of the United States.”

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/137221841136/charisma-vs-danger-master-persuader-series

  20. I don’t know how I found you probably over a decade ago, but I am glad I did. I’ve learned more and found more news and opinion sources through you than anyone else. So what if ‘Sailer Strategy’ does or does not become a term. It is a recognized fact among those who know.

  21. says:
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    I think they always knew this.

    But they couldn’t spell it out because any discussion of ‘white interest’ would piss off
    the Neocon elites and their donors who label anything ‘white’ as ‘far right’.

  22. Best case scenario: Trump wins the Republican nomination, forcing the Republican establishment to show their true colors . They more or less openly side with Hillary against him.

    With their connivance, Hillary wins.

    Can you even begin to imagine the glorious horror of the four years that follow?

    The worse, the better.

  23. That’s why they are known as “Reagan Democrats”. Their default is Donk, because they can’t bring themselves to call themselves Republicans, but if they can be cajoled into actually voting they will vote for the right Republican if they sense the Donk hates them.

  24. I don’t think the term ‘natural Repubican’ means anything anymore. It’s an empty phrase thrown out by the cuckservative GOPe. Kind of like the nonsensical “not in the spirit of Jack Kemp” that Kasich threw out*.

    Poor whites want a job, decent schools for their kids and to not be villianized as NAM oppressors. The GOP has essentially given up on all three.

    *I think this is the dumbest moment of this primary, and I’m including every Jabe fuckup. Seriously, Jack Kemp? I’d consider myself very well informed politically and I still went Jack Who? I had to check and see that he had died, or that he was known for some sort of noble act. His only claim to fame was that he was a start athlete and he was less despised by blacks that the typical GOPe member. Kasich just embarrassed himself.

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  25. There is a dynamic at play here that kind of goes with the neighboring “deep state” post (which I haven’t read yet).

    One thing that has been clear over the past few decades is that the white working class has been getting hammered. The Democrats left these voters on the table for the Republicans to pick up by coming across as beeing too partial to racial minorities. But the Republicans didn’t really pick them up.

    Elites in both parties are in favor of the high immigration and trade agreements (they are called free trade agreements but this is a misnomer) that have been driving down working class wages. They collaborated in bailing out the banks. Both parties have past histories of doing things in support of the working class, the Republicans via protectionism and curbs on immigration, the Democrats through their support of social security and what are essentially middle class welfare programs such as social security and medicare. But both have walked away from this history.

    There is an opening for a FDR figure coming from either party that can lock in white working class voters for a generation, giving the party an unbeatable electoral edge. But the elites in neither party are interested in doing this. They sort of have a non-agreession pact to basically ignore these voters.

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  26. That’s hatemath.

  27. As someone here pointed out, If the Mexicans were taking the jobs of Bankers and Journalists, the whole tone of the coverage would be different.

  28. This is the year of the uneducated white. See…

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

    …for evidence that the deciding factor is the uneducated white.

    Don’t bother asking for explanations, it’s the year of the uneducated white.

  29. Steve jests but the left really does use the word “hate” in an extremely excessive manner.

    It’s a shame too because the word loses all meaning and it’s harder to distinguish between legitimate hate and a simple disregard for PC.

    You’re kidding, aren’t you?

    That’s the whole idea. I dare say it was from the very beginning.

    It’s impossible to be too cynical.

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  30. You know that center right governments are actually doing a decent job of getting elected in Central and South America right?

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  31. Problem with Steve is he does not bother to think his ideas through, the Canada-style points policy would make it a lot easier for company x to just get 50000 H1B workers for a 2 year contract on the basis on a lack of native applicants, it would actually greatly simplify it compared to the current system.

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  32. You have a point, but only up to a point. Yes, there is one segment of whites (let’s call them “white trash”, to coin a phrase) who are as degraded as minorities and will vote for the “Free Stuff” party no matter what. But there is another segment of poor whites who once upon a time aspired to the lower middle class (maybe they used to have a job at the unionized factory that closed and moved to Mexico). Many of them now have fallen off the edge and scratch out a living at Wal-Mart, with paper routes, driving a school bus, etc. but they still aspire to an America (and a President) who will restore them to their former position in society. Remember that the next Republican candidate doesn’t have to get 100% of whites, just a few more %, so even if the white trash stick with the Dems there are still the remaining poor whites.

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  33. Exactly. The idea is to constantly shift the Overton window to the left and to characterize anything to the right of it as “hate” and maybe even a crime. Once you make a gain, you pocket that and start pushing on the next big thing – world war G is won, let’s work on world war T. 8 years ago Obama, a liberal Democrat, could say that he was not in favor of gay marriage but it you say that today you are a hater and maybe should lose your job or your business. Today a mainstream Democrat might still express concern about having transexuals in a girl’s high school locker room but Gaia willing, 8 years from now they will have the legal right to do so and anyone who says otherwise is a hater, does not accept Science, etc.

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  34. The top rated comment on that WaPo article:

    “Most Liked

    edenvalleyview
    9:52 AM EST

    Oh the poor, poor working class white people (sniffle). Their lives are sooo terrible. It’s those damn immigrants taking their jobs, even though technology and years of bad trade deals (from BOTH parties) are actually responsible. It must be terrorists, though republican idea of carpet bombing our way out of trouble will just create more terrorists. It must be political correctness, making it hard to express their bigoted hatreds. Maybe it’s the war on Christianity, though it just might be the belief system’s failure to overcome it’s own hypocrisy causing people to abandon it. Sure, it’s Obama. He only brought us out of a conservative-caused economic meltdown and didn’t immediately give everyone a higher-paying job. He couldn’t get anythiong done, but whose fault is that, really? Maybe our wages are too low, but we’d rather make less under a republican than take responsibility for ourselves.

    Poor, poor white working class people. Everyone is responsible for their problems but themselves.

    Who are these people?

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  35. Someone really should research how the fields of sexology and sex education have become politicized to move this nonsense from the fringes to the mainstream in a generation. I’ve started to collect and read college textbooks about human sexuality – I buy slightly older editions through Amazon vendors to save money, but all the ones I have came out in early 21st Century, so they reflect the sexual indoctrination of today’s Millennials.

    And right away I notice their nonjudgmentalism and their agenda of normalizing deviant, broken and sterile forms of sexuality, just as good as the kind which we see in healthy patriarchal societies where women marry young, without sexual experience, and they and their husbands form proper families to keep the human species in business and maintain a decent quality of life.

    If medicine took the approach to human health analogous to what we see in sexology, the medical textbooks would call diabetes a form of “metabolic diversity” instead of judging it as a life-threatening illness that needs interventions to try to keep the patient healthy.

  36. Everybody here ridicules the idea that Hispanics are ‘natural Republicans’ but are completely on board with the idea that poor Whites are.

    The Democrats have built their coalition by offering racial bribes to minorities, bribes that are paid for, via money and lost opportunity, by whites. For whites with means they can find ways to mitigate some of the harms, but those low income whites are shafted 50 ways to Sunday. Here’s one example:

    n court on Wednesday, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. attacked the political underbelly of this system. The University of Texas argued that diversity within racial groups was also important, citing “the African-American or Hispanic child of successful professionals in Dallas.” Skeptically, Justice Alito asked the university’s lawyer, “They deserve a leg up against, let’s say, an Asian or a white applicant whose parents are absolutely average?”

    Those poor white parents may have great hope for their intelligent child and want to see him go to university but then Democrats are going to shit on their hopes and dreams by disadvantaging their kid because a lesser qualified black or Hispanic applicant from the upper class needs affirmative action and so some white kid has to be denied admission and in the hierarchy of white class interests that targeted white kid is not going to be from the upper class, most likely not even from the middle class, but invariably will be from the lower class because they have the least amount of power.

    The game theory here is pretty simple – when your opponent uses bribery to assemble a racial coalition then whites who reject racial solidarity are the target and will be picked off one by one.

  37. says:
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    implicit promise of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to “¡Make America more like Latin America!”

    bwahahaha!!! That’s the funniest and truest thing I’ve read quite a while. It is Señor Jeb’s promise and look how embarrassing bad he’s doing.

  38. Problem with Steve is he does not bother to think his ideas through, the Canada-style points policy would make it a lot easier for company x to just get 50000 H1B workers for a 2 year contract on the basis on a lack of native applicants, it would actually greatly simplify it compared to the current system.

    When I think this through, I think you need to add the phrase “at a salary far below current market rates” after the phrase “on the basis on a lack of native applicants.”

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  39. Glad to see the Sailer Strategy potentially bearing fruit, and I hope you get the attention of the pundits when Trump wins the nomination. When the Cruz campaign tries to appeal to blue collar voters, Trump can discuss Ted’s H1B cheer leading at the most opportune moment.

  40. I think a center-right party could keep its losing margin among Hispanics to a survivable level for some time as long as it acts like it’s the self-respecting Americans’ party. Hispanics (outside of Cubans) aren’t very dynamic politically. They tend to follow not set trends (except by weight of demographics).

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  41. Someone needs to tell Nikki Haley about the Sailer Strategy:

    http://www.steynonline.com/7418/the-stupid-party-gets-stupider

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  42. says:
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    No chance. Many of these so-called “Slippery Six” are Hillary’s core strength areas. Recall that she consistently beat Obama in many of these states in ’08. Given her strength among both blacks and working joe whitey, she is already the presumptive President-Elect. She will tack towards the center nicely in the general, with all the requisite Clintonian cynicism, and trounce whatever idiot survives the GOP muddle.

    The Liberal Order will endure.

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  43. I have to disagree completely that Washington and to a lesser extent Oregon are similar to the Slippery Six. These are Pac 12 states that have a lot more liberal (certainly socially by far) outlook than the Big 10 slippery six. The key indicator to show this difference is WA and OR are two of only five states that would’ve gone to Obama if only White men could vote. The other three are MA, VT, and Maine.

    WA and OR’s population structure are swayed a lot greater by just a few counties/cities compared to the Slippery Six.

  44. says:
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    We know what Trump thinks of ‘losers’, so how can they think he will help them?

    It would probably be enough to remind them that the Dems haven’t done anything for them either, and viscerally hate everything about them.

  45. says:
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    Poor, poor white working class people. Everyone is responsible for their problems but themselves.

    Who are these people?

    Democrats, who still manage to keep a straight face when they say they’re looking out for the little guy, or are the “party of the working man”.

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  46. A provocative television ad last week that depicts illegal immigrants racing across the U.S. border in suits and high heels to steal jobs from Americans.

    If I didn’t see the ad I’d be scratching my head. Would it kill the reporters to explain the point of this ad a bit more? Or perhaps the point went over their heads? In this case, the paper should import smarter (and cheaper) reporters from India.

  47. You forgot economists.

  48. “In the 1800s this fat bearded man named Karl Marx emitted ideas that had changed half the world within 50 years of his death”

    And in his work as the London correspondent for the New York Times, he fucked up most of the rest of the other half.

    I’m not terribly sure Sailer is too anxious to get his 50 years started.

  49. The message to make this work is the simple one that every immigrant who comes to the US to take a minimum wage job is improving his job at the cost of all working class Americans, Black, White and Brown.

    The guy who comes up with the right slogan for this will be a millionaire.

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  50. In Texas, lots of Hispanics vote Republican actually. The reason is because they self-identify with the macho white Texan culture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chKX6VOC8kY

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  51. Are you in show biz Sailer ?

    Or just a low pressure valve for the gas of the the wankers that won’t really do shit ?

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  52. The message to make this work is the simple one that every immigrant who comes to the US to take a minimum wage job…

    That assumes the minimum wage for the immigrant is the same as for the native, as it is now. But if his minimum wage is set at double or triple that of the native… it’s back to Tegucigalpa for him.

  53. Who are these people?

    Luke, they’re called cucks, the product of a very distorted socialization, prominant in western societies in the process of complete collapse.

    This systemizing-type female explains it : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w__PJ8ymliw

  54. American jobs for American workers.

  55. I doubt if the Republicans (or any established “conservative” party in the Anglosphere) will ever win over disaffected working-class whites. Working-class whites aren’t stupid. They know that such parties have screwed them over for decades and they regard such parties with an unbelievable degree of loathing.

    A political outsider like Trump might have a chance but he’d have to convince them that he hates Wall Street and the Republican Party establishment as much as they do.

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  56. The concept of the working class in America is rather vague. Is it blue collar laborers regardless of race and ethnic background? Is it only whites with lower educational and job skills? Is it lower middle class? Is it all of the above?

    Moreover, what is the political persuasion of the working class? Is it “true” conservativism? Is it God, Guns, And Glory To America? Is it something else?

    “But over time, citizens will see that Trump’s policy statements consistently favor American citizens over non-citizens. That’s his pattern. It is also the job description of the President of the United States.”

    Sure, but do his overall values correspond to hard-core conservative principles? Because Trump is an eastern monied elitist. A true showman.

  57. says:
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    The only thing macho about Texas are the steers:

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  58. Who are these people?

    Jeff Bezos owns the paper, and he knows better than anyone how to manipulate reviews/comments. Amazon has been tweaking them for over 20 years. Even so, when he and other Seattle Democrats went all in on the gay marriage vote for deep blue Washington state a few years ago, outspending the opposition some ten to one, they only managed to win by a few tenths of a percent. They probably would have lost without the rampant vote fraud King County routinely uses to inflate liberal vote tallies.

  59. yeah, that is a good post…very nice exposure of the built-in default vocabulary used in the media.

    Another good one I saw yesterday reading about the Sack of Cologne was “more than 500 women *claimed* they were assaulted”.

    Sure, it is literally correct, but said/reported, or some other word would carry less connotations. Although I didn’t really have to guess, that definitely confirmed which side the propagandist and his organ were on.

    Language is important.

  60. Trade deals and outsourcing have played a huge role in the downturn of their fortunes. So has the decline of unions, the inflation-adjusted decrease of the minimum wage, financialization, corporationization, price gouging by the healthcare industry, and automation.

    Working class whites are fools for supporting the pro-business, small-govt Republican agenda. They’re even bigger fools for supporting the “War on Terror.” The economic policies of Bernie Sanders (combined with anti-immigration policies) would be far, far more advantageous to them than the standard garbage sold to them by Bush/Ryan/Romney/Priebus/Gingrich.

    Pre-Clinton, I think the Democratic party (while flawed) was probably a better party for working class whites than Republicans. Post-Clinton, both parties became strongly anti-workingman, but the Republicans are still worse (other than Trump).

    By the way, back in the 70s, lots of Democrats were anti-immigration because they perceived it as lowering the wages of working people. When the 1986 amnesty passed, most Democrats actually voted against. It was Republicans who pushed it through.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1984/06/21/us/house-by-216-211-approves-aliens-bill-after-retaining-amnesty-plan-in-final-test.html?pagewanted=all

    The narrow margin today reflected deep divisions within the House, which had become evident in impassioned debate over the last seven days. Democrats opposed the bill by a margin of 138 to 125. Ninety-one Republicans voted for the bill and 73 voted against it, even though the Administration had urged all House members to support the legislation.

  61. says:
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    You sound like this guy:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-theater-shooter-thanks-man-accused-of-black-church-slayings-2016-1

    BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — The gunman responsible for a deadly rampage inside a Louisiana movie theater last summer left a journal thanking the man accused of killing 9 black people in a South Carolina church.

    Police on Wednesday released a copy of 59-year-old John Russell Houser’s hand-written journal, in which he described Dylann Roof as “green but good.”

    Police said Houser shot and killed two people and wounded nine others before fatally shooting himself inside an auditorium at The Grand 16 theater in Lafayette on July 23, 2015. Jillian Johnson, a 33-year-old musician and business owner, and Mayci Breaux, a 21-year-old student, died in the shooting.

    In his 40-page journal, Houser laments the state of the U.S., calling it a “filth farm,” and he rants against the news media, national political figures, women, gays and blacks.

  62. I an skeptical Trump will get more black votes than George Bush did, more likely just the same. Not with Obama campaigning for Hillary or Bernie and black media demonizing him. He would have to pick a black VP like Sen Scott or Condi to crack 12%.

    Now if this meme will help get Trump nominated, who cares lets spread it.

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  63. In the United States all domestic political issues are about race, even if this is rarely admitted by anybody.

    Every issue like from health care expenditure and education to jobs, housing, crime, campus rape, states’ rights, small government, abortion, guns, and everything else is all about dividing the races, making sure that the other group doesn’t get too much of a share of tax payer funding, and so on.

    So if you are a Republican strategist, since nearly all blacks vote Democratic, you really want to try to motivate people with Spanish names plus whites to vote against the Democratic coalition of blacks and liberal whites.

    Businesses, on the other hand, cannot afford to be so picky. If you want to maximize national sales of hamburgers or McMuffins, you cannot afford to disregard all the zip codes that have a lot of black and/or Hispanics, although you may wish to diversify into tacos and burritos so as to have all bases covered.

  64. I may be the longest time Sailer reader of my generation. I was reading him in print NR as a pre-teen. Yes I was strange. I read a few copies in the library and received a subscription when I was 12.

  65. Slippery Rock University, Pennsylvania – a very nice, boiler-plate U. And, when thinking about Slippery Rock, I am reminded of all the people I knew in 1979 who went to school there, and could conceivably be called today: middle-class (Hillary’s “everyday Americans,” – notice she stopped using that!) PA & Jersey voting public, the very people that now, everyone, knows are going for Trump.

    Having gone to numerous wrestling (and fencing) tournaments to PA & NJ, and beyond (driving/transporting dog adoptions as well), last few years, I totally enjoy the fact that the GOP and Democrats have no idea who the vast majority of people living in the rust belt/grain belt and mountain states are. And, all I can say, “it’s too late, they are not voting for you.”

    Many people I have spoken to in these states over the years, have felt forgotten by both establishment parties. They are worried (the 50+) about their kids ever finding jobs/careers that pay a living wage to raise a family. They are worried over the loans they or their kids have taken to get that college degree that is seen less as “an education,” more as the last guarantee or warranty for life outside of marginal poverty in a part of the country, for worse (forget better,) that does not have any cache’ as far as industry anymore, or just plain, well, cash.

    These folks in the big states that matter for electoral college votes, realize they are living in the “declining states” as far as innovation/quality of life/weather (duh)/ appeal…but their roots are here. And, even if they feel that there’s no way in hell a Silicon Valley could be dreamed-up in Cleveland, they want their kid to get a job in SV in California. These rust belt/plains/mountain state parents are kinda’ like Mexican parents: “my child will prosper in Palo Alto and she will send money back home to Slippery Rock.”

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  66. when we talk about the white working class, we mean no college degree workers and retirees, not lumpenproles with serious drug issues, who mostly don’t vote at all, and may not even be able to because they lack an ID or have a felony record.

  67. The NW and Maine/NH are both very white, but very different politically. Maine and NH have the highest percentage of moderate swing voters in the USA. By contrast, WA and OR have large numbers of both very partisan Republicans and very partisan Democrats. Maine regularly elects both independants and old style moderate Republicans like Snowe and Collins who would never survive a GOP primary in Washington or Oregon.

  68. Nobody votes for VP candidates.

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  69. Hey guys, one of you (who’s heart goes a-flutter when he sees a picture of Putin) is going to have to explain the meaning of the word “Communist” to your Commie President…

    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/#2715e4857a0b3610606120bc

  70. You have a point, but only up to a point. Yes, there is one segment of whites (let’s call them “white trash”, to coin a phrase) who are as degraded as minorities and will vote for the “Free Stuff” party no matter what. But there is another segment of poor whites who once upon a time aspired to the lower middle class (maybe they used to have a job at the unionized factory that closed and moved to Mexico). Many of them now have fallen off the edge and scratch out a living at Wal-Mart, with paper routes, driving a school bus, etc. but they still aspire to an America (and a President) who will restore them to their former position in society. Remember that the next Republican candidate doesn’t have to get 100% of whites, just a few more %, so even if the white trash stick with the Dems there are still the remaining poor whites.

    Your second category is what I call the, “we were poor, but we were proud” people. My observation is that there are still plenty of people who descend from that stock and flatter themselves that they still adhere to that philosophy. But it seems if one scratches the surface, one finds the dependency rot is extensive. For example, disability pensions are have been steadily increasing for years without respite.

    One example is VA disability for PTSD. Apparently something like 1/2 of the military who deployed to one of the sandboxes has filed for this. And in ~2010, the VA substantially loosened the criteria. Another is SSDI pensions, which have also been increasing for years.

    The notion of a doughty, self-reliant lower class is increasingly becoming more of a conceit than a reality among those who view themselves that way. And the government really doesn’t do much to stop it, like the F-35, sure, rich country can afford what amounts to a redistribution program to support a class of people tractored off of the modern economy.

    Who knows whether they will vote their wallets or their contradictory self-images.

  71. The Sailer Strategy would never work for any machine pol as they lack the authenticity. Romney was a greed obsessed corporate rape artist with the personality of a undertaker who specialized in gutting corporations. He had zero ability to relate to Joe Sixpack or talk his language. He was the perfect punching bag for Obama.

    Trump by comparison just walks up to the podium and cuts loose without any teleprompter or script approved by PR firms. His language is raw and direct. People see and respect that. He’s not treating them as imbeciles the way professional pols routinely do with their canned speeches.

    Cruz or Rubio can’t pull that off. Those two are greasy lawyers that don’t have a populist bone in their body. Lawyers like them don’t talk to ordinary people unless they’re handing them the bill for doing so. Carly never could because she’s a empty headed marketer who simply hated the working and technical classes. The rest are even more pathetic machine pols.

  72. You know that center right governments are actually doing a decent job of getting elected in Central and South America right?

    And they’re corrupt, useless and unelectable unless they loudly insist they hatehatehate USAmerica as much as the other guys.

    Your point?

  73. Who are these people?

    Nearly everyone who lives in the DC area and especially inside the Beltway for starters. I had countless fly-on-the-wall experiences over the years. It is completely socially acceptable in nearly any social gathering there to express the most venomous hatred for flyover country whites. There is literally nothing that is socially unacceptable to say in those milieus about that class of people. Well, I don’t know for sure that there is nother, but I’ve heard stuff said that would scorch your ears and nobody ever remonstrated. I think I often came under suspicion simply because I wouldn’t join in with gusto.

    Given the tools and a bit incrementing down a slippery slope, this crowd could easily set up killing fields eventually IMO. It was eye-opening and I heard this stuff for many years. And from people that consider themselves enlightened, benevolent, and overall paragons of civic virtue.

    Really, it is hard to overstate the reality of it.

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  74. I an skeptical Trump will get more black votes than George Bush did, more likely just the same.

    Given some reasonable definition of “more”, I’d give even money all day on that contention.

    Trump isn’t going to totally rock the black vote should he get the nomination, but he will at a bare minimum take a statistically significant greater than Bush, there is no doubt of that.

    I realize am stating that without any presenting a shred of supporting evidence so it is just an opinion.

  75. OT, but I’m surprised not to have seen much on iSteve about the recent order from the DoD for the USMC to end segregation of the sexes in boot camp.

    Gates gave the USMC 15 days to submit a plan. Hey Gates, how about you submit a plan to finally win a war for once.

    Well, whatever else happens, it will finally provide a bright line demarcation between the Old Corps and the New Corps. Marines have been debating this without any resolution for 240 years, now they won’t have to.

  76. Look at these young boys , what did they know ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KOEEQttjI8

    No more than the rest of us I suppose . Eternity is always near , I know that now . If we have to die should we die as abject cowards or face our fate as men ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTZ8MEi2yCo

    We are the only ones who can forsake us , ourselves . And who will we face in eternity ? Not God but our selves .

  77. A lot of people here don’t seem to get that what’s most essential about the term “working class whites” is the “working” part. Working class whites are probably even more emphatically opposed to welfare state policies because they’re a lot closer to the people who abuse them. The temptations of welfare, workmen’s comp, and disability don’t mean much to a lawyer or engineer who doesn’t live or work around people who abuse the system, but plenty of working class whites do.

    How did Romney and Ryan and McCain lose? They pissed off the natural base of Republican voters – working class whites – who are fed up with such policies. Working class whites are the ones most instinctively bothered by matters of fairness, and by people who abuse the system.

    Romney/Ryan/McCain like to wax poetic about the importance of “talent” at the top of the labor pool but treat those at the bottom of the labor pool as interchangeable cogs, and those at the bottom of the labor pool are keenly aware of that fact. My first job after college was managing blue-collar workers, and I can promise you they are by no means interchangeable. I had employees who were easily 2-3-4 times as productive as others, and they knew it.

    The Midwest, Rust Belt, Pennsylvania – these places are filled with the types of whites that Republicans should be winning, but aren’t. They are whites smart enough to know that the Republican Party, no matter what it claims, only ever really consistently stands for two things: more wars in the Middle East (for Israel’s sake) and more tax cuts for the rich.

  78. They are not getting it wrong. They are cashing those checks. The GOP donor class, Sheldon Adelson and Paul Singer, etc., want Open Borders and don’t particularly like working class Whites very much. Traditionally, a successful politician is the guy who raises the most money so that he can pay the most consultants. The political consultants advise the politicians to implement policies the Big Money wants. The same goes for the idiocy that comes out of the so-called Think Tanks. The Think Tanks are paid millions to justify the policies supported by their donors.

    Trump’s campaign is a Black Swan Event that has demonstrated that The Emperor Has No Clothes. This was not supposed to happen. Trump’s lack of ad spending is putting the fear of God in many of the fat cats in the consultant class. Saw Frank Luntz on Hannity this evening. Poor schlub looks like he is on suicide watch.

    Could Trump win New York State? I don’t think there is much polling data, but one can dream.

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  79. If we could ask them what would they say of their sacrifice ? Would they decline the “honor ” to be a bloated stinking carcass ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSILLYhYdTY

    To die for what ? This shit country that we have become .

  80. It’s a shame too because the word loses all meaning and it’s harder to distinguish between legitimate hate and a simple disregard for PC.

    Have you considered the possibility that this is exactly the purpose of the excessive use?

    Cui bono?

  81. says:
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    Cleveland is terrible. But at least it’s not Detroit!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM

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  82. I didn’t start reading Steve Sailer on a regular basis until this past summer when I started posting on unz.com. I only knew him from occasional pieces of his that would appear from time to time on The American Conservative. But I seem to recall that Sean Trende (who’s a pretty fine political analyst imo) had been making essentially the same point on RCP after the 2012 election. It looks like he probably picked it up from reading Steve Sailer. (Come to think of it, I used to see frequent pieces by Sean Trende on RCP, but not so much recently. I wonder if his line has gotten him in trouble.)

  83. I have seen polls claiming Trump has 40% approval among blacks, but have no idea if that is remotely close.

    http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/12/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump/

    He does have plenty of support in the black community though, as even the NYT is loath to admit.

    Just as Scott Adams says today, people (including blacks) who know Trump say that he is not racist but wants to protect current citizens of the US. Imagine that.

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  84. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/22/us/politics/donald-trump-african-americans.html?referer=

    What is your take Truth, if you are reading?

    Brother?

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  85. Cleveland is terrible. But at least it’s not Detroit!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM

    OMFG are those so funny and so true. And the comments .. like this gem:

    Cleveland is what happens when Detroit pounds 15 beers and spots St. Louis looking all hot and skanky, so he then smokes a little (actually a lot) of PCP to take the edge off and viciously rapes and dishevels St. Louis while at the same time impregnating her. After Detroit leaves to go steal copper from Green bay (the Ned Flanders of cities) St Louis decides due to her religious upbringing she can’t abort little Cleveland even though she knows the doomspawn she hatches from her stink crevice will surely be the mother of all train wrecks. She also can’t give up her crippling crack cocaine addiction which she supplies by giving rim jobs to various other cities (mostly Philadelphia). This crack addiction leads to the birth of the malformed dumpster baby we know today as Cleveland.

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  86. Spread any misapprehension so long as it gets you what you want. That’s you.

    One behaves honorably in a fair fight so that his opponent feels fairly defeated. If he’s defeated with a snow job, he will be introduced to a policy he hates. But you’re okay with that.

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  87. I agree with your comments, but the “window of opportunity” for your FDR figure is, at most, in the next 2-3 election cycles, (say through 2024) and coupled with an almost immediate moratorium on immigration and an aggressive deportation of illegals policy. Without that, the demographic changes that are already “baked in the cake,” and the tendency of elites that you noted will make even the Sailer Strategy electorally unworkable.

  88. I liked the line about “Look at our two buildings,” although my impression from driving through Cleveland a couple of years ago was that it has not two, but three incredible buildings, and not much else of a skyline. There’s a huge newish skyscraper that looks like the Empire State Building, only even more Empire State Buildingish. It’s like a comic book version of the cover of “The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay.” And there’s a 1920s skyscraper that looks as cool as all the 1920s skyscrapers along the Chicago River, only twice as tall. And there was a third building that caught my eye, but I can’t remember which. It’s a weird skyline in that the top two or three buildings are amazing, but then there’s a big gap to the rest.

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  89. Decline is visible everywhere, but nothing makes it clearer than a beautiful skyscraper from the 1920s set against the reality of the present.

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  90. You can build pretty awesome retro buildings today if you feel like it. The 1991 Empire State Buildingish skyscraper in Cleveland is kind of the Platonic Dream of what the designers of the Empire State Building would have come up with if they had enjoyed a 1990s budget.

    Similarly, when I was at Rice in the 1970s, the best building on campus, Sewell Hall, was a brand new one that a rich lady had erected on the quad to look externally just like the ornate 1920 Chemistry building facing it, but internally it had all mod cons.

  91. That 20s building would be the Terminal Tower. Apparently it was the biggest building outside NYC when it was built. It was designed by the same guys (Sweringen bros) who developed Shaker Heights, which is an interesting subject in its own right.

    Cleveland did have some pretty heady glory days, probably more than is now generally recognized, and to its credit, there are still quite a few interesting relatively intact relics remaining. At its peak, it was well into the top 10 largest cities in the U.S., a fact one could probably win a lot of bar bets with these days.

    Actually, that is what seems so frustrating to the local boosters – it actually seems to have quite a bit going for it, just starting with the lakefront for example, but nothing ever works, it just remains a hard luck place.

    IMO, the national imagination flipped the bozo bit so hard on Cleveland back in the 70s, it would take an act of God to unflip it.

    It really is the Charlie Brown of cities.

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  92. It’s a weird skyline in that the top two or three buildings are amazing, but then there’s a big gap to the rest.

    This is a reflection of the “whale hunting” mentality of Cleveland’s boosters. There seems to be a recurring belief that landing the occasional iconic project, like the Rock & Roll museum will spur redemption. And occasionally they do bag a whale, like the two newer skyscrapers, but the fundamentals of the place remain the same.

    Cargo cult mentality clearly on display.

  93. Eisenhower actually won the city of San Francisco in 1956, pretty much the last hurrah of white blue collar SF before the tide of gentrification and multiculturalism became a tsunami.

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  94. In Texas, lots of Hispanics vote Republican actually. The reason is because they self-identify with the macho white Texan culture.

    So far as national elections go, Texan Hispanics are indistinguishable from their Californian cousins. Both voted for Obama over Romney by about 71-to-27 margins. The reason why Texas is a red state while California is a blue state is because white Texans vote overwhelmingly Republican, while white Californians split about 50-50.

  95. after the last 60 years of being defeated, by “snow jobs”, hating the genocidal policies inflicted on us by our enemies… …

    yeah…

    we’re okay with that

  96. TLP knows and he says they will vote their egos

  97. Yeah, that’s really the best strategy for electoral success in a modern democratic welfare state….

    Quite a few Blue Collar whites fall into Romney’s “47% non taxpayers”. They work hard and pay plenty of taxes, they just don’t make enough to pay income taxes. That idiotic meme is one of the reasons Romney lost. It showed just how out of touch Romney and the conservative media talking heads are.

  98. What is your take Truth

    Truth’s a giver, not a taker.

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  99. East Cleveland is block after block of what looks like a former war zone (to their credit, now nicely clean and boarded up, if utterly empty), then rising Phoenix-like from the ashes: the sprawling Cleveland Clinic.

    It’s reminds one of nothing so much as East Berlin before the Wall came down.

    Northern Ohio is notoriously, stubbornly Deep Blue and Cleveland’s what that gets you: a (very) few high highs and an utterly obliterated middle. No town for kulaks.

  100. Trump is interesting, charismatic, and confident, he is also confrontational, thin skinned, and goal oriented. He also tells some semblance of the truth, and is relatively plain-spoken A lot of black people look up to men like that, black or white so it is no surprise to me that he is relatively popular amongst blacks.

    If Trump gains the nomination (and I don’t think he will, I am still not sure that he isn’t pulling a scam of some sort) he’d win, I’d say 15% of the black vote.

    I always thought Bill Clinton being the “the first black president” was somewhat amusing, even with his bad saxaphone playing, and boning black women, he just struck me as another phony southern white guy.

    Your average African-American can identify much more fully with Trump than Clinton.

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  101. Well, I used to be a Sailer house band, now I’m more of a juke box; I only take requests.

  102. Diamond and Silk are great. Listen to their argument, then tell me that Trump doesn’t have a chance with black voters.

    https://youtu.be/QOaEGQzFaPg

  103. Boston has two tall buildings of note. Nobody here seems to think it matters a damn. The skyline still looks good .

    http://www.boston.com/entertainment/2016/01/12/mit-grad-student-took-literally-million-photos-the-boston-skyline/iBqSNXEjD5kkqu63bLKxxH/story.html

  104. Key indicator in my mind- they are not particularly religious and are turned off by the Republican Evangelicals. Will they warm to Trump?

    Uh, many of them are evangelicals (megachurch branch), which is the downmarket way to be “spiritual, but not religious.” Judging by the barrage of negative ads the Obama campaign ran in Ohio in October 2012 to depress white turnout, their beef with the GOP is economic and national betrayal.

  105. I lived and worked in the Washington DC area from 1985 until 2004 and the comment is correct; there is a contempt among DC elites, for people, especially white people, in flyover country. Sometimes it’s most vehement in people from flyover country, perhaps in a desperate attempt to establish their bona fides.

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  106. “*I think this is the dumbest moment of this primary, and I’m including every Jabe fuckup. Seriously, Jack Kemp?”

    Yes, saying that something is not in the spirit of a failed vice presidential candidate from 20 years ago is hardly a persuasive admonishment. It’s like a bumpersticker that reads WWJoAD? What would Joseph of Arimathea do?

  107. I don’t agree, Hilary 2016 is a very different candidate from Hilary 2008. She has gone all in with the SJW crusaders and come out in favor of more illegal immigration when a decade ago she wanted clearly to restrict it because it’s bad effects on working class incomes. Furthermore Obama only won the slippery six states due to both his incumbent advantage and the fact that he was the first Democrat President in a long time not to take matching funds from the federal government, meaning he could spend without limit, which only amplified his advantage as an incumbent.

    Facing no primary opposition Obama hoarded his cash until Romney was flat broke from the primary challenge of Santorum and then saturated the airwaves from May to August ( Particularly in the Midwest ) in the key swing states. I live in the Rust Belt and I was astonished that I didn’t see or hear a single Romney ad for all of May, June, and July and then only a relative handful in August until maybe the second week of the month, leading up to the GOP convention.

    The week that Romney went overseas on his foreign tour in June, Obama’s campaign and PAC’s bought 1700 radio and TV ads in Ohio alone, and I can tell you they were uniformly anti-Romney, not pro-Obama, portraying Romney as Scrooge McDuck hurting the working man. This strategy of using the old time Democratic religion was only effective because Romney didn’t respond to it due to his financial situation for a dozen weeks during the dog days of summer. Hilary will not have this advantage over the Donald, because technically she is not an incumbent and will therefore not have the luxury of not spending money in the primaries, particularly if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire.

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  108. Eisenhower actually won the city of San Francisco in 1956, pretty much the last hurrah of white blue collar SF

    Actually, as late as 1975 a *conservative* (not Eisenhower) Republican named John Barbegelata came within a hair’s breadth of winning the Mayoralty of San Francisco. In fact, given the vote fraud ginned up by Harvey Milk and Jim Jones’ “People’s Temple”, Barbegelata probably did win, as the “official” margin of George Moscone’s victory was less than 5,000 votes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_mayoral_election,_1975

  109. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that Pennsylvania was the closest of the Slippery Six, as its also got the biggest pot of Electoral Votes (tied with Illinois for #5 in the nation, after California, Texas, New York, and Florida). Here’s a good link for people who want to look up that kind of data:

    http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

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  110. not to take matching funds from the federal government

    Hadn’t thought about that one. Trump wouldn’t need federal funds, and if he keeps on message, needn’t spend much of his own money.

    …and will therefore not have the luxury of not spending money in the primaries, particularly if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire.

    One’s a caucus, one’s a primary. They reflect differing populations. Losing one is embarrassing, but you can cling to the other. Losing both exposes your weakness with the inner party and the outer party.

    I can hardly wait for the Minnesota DFL caucus. Especially the Phyllis Kahn-Somali rivalry on the West Bank.

  111. The term “stupid party” is a horrific misnomer. The Republican establishment has been very purposeful. They have pushed increased immigration, free trade, adventurous empire building, financialization and globalization of the economy to help their true plutocratic constituency.

    They don’t give a damn about the country, the culture or its people.

    The Traitorous Party is more apt.

  112. At the risk of stating the obvious, ” current market rates” is a number that can readily be gamed.

    At the risk of sounding like a genius the real hoot of fix would be to make the test ” at a compensation level less than that of the CEO. ”

    That should stop the fuckers.

  113. “You know that center right governments are actually doing a decent job of getting elected in Central and South America right?”

    Yes, and Hispanic males actually voted for Tony Abbot in the 2014 Republican gubernatorial race. As Steve’s noted, they tend to be trend followers, rather than setters, and in Texas, where the political tone is conservative, they’re assimilating into that groove. Of course, the “Latinos” of California vote almost like Blacks, because they’ve been exposed to a different set of cultural pressures. Its obviously unfortunate that Hispanics have become a significant component of the demographics of the Deep South and the Midwest, but as they assimilate into those cultures, the disadvantage they present on the electoral front, will be less severe than many had previously assumed. Black-versus-Hispanic enmity should speed up that process in the South, and in some of the big Midwestern cities.

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  114. says:
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    The pre-1965 black vote logically ought to vote for immigration restriction but for every one that actually does so i can imagine 1 or 2 more staying home and waiting to see what happens in the first term.

  115. says:
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    What still confuses me is how all these political consultants get it wrong.

    The donors insist on open borders – while that condition is in place the GOP consultants can’t win unless the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot somehow.

    If open borders actually did make people more prosperous then it would be okay but it doesn’t – it just makes the donors richer.

  116. I usually cringe when people here wax hyperbolic about iSteve’s influence outside our little circle, but this admission from Joe Klein, Time Magazine’s reliable hard-left idiot, is a remarkable acknowledgement of iSteve’s notion of “coalition of the fringes vs generic American party”:

    Despite their vaunted inclusiveness…the Democrats have slipped into a backdoor tribalism as well. On its web page, the Democratic National Committee lists 18 different affinity groups you can affiliate with–according to race, ethnicity, disability, gender and gender choice. During the 2014 election, I heard Democrats proposing policies that appealed to many of these groups, but few that appealed to Americans as a whole.

    http://time.com/4170780/why-race-and-tribe-trump-economics-in-the-current-presidential-campaign/

  117. As a Californian, it’s always interesting to hear from people like you, who live in states that presidential candidates actually compete in. (Compete for votes, that is. They still come out here to compete for money.)

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  118. It’s only a matter of time before the term “Sailer strategy” is being used on cable talk show panels.

    So, then Steve will need to make sure they know how to pronounce it. I always figured it’s like “sailor”, but back in der Schweiz it would be “Zyler”, and there’s the possibility of a “Syler” compromise.

  119. Nobody votes for VP candidates.

    Massachusetts did in 1972, and Minnesota in 1980. New York sure didn’t in 1964 and 1984.

  120. As a Californian, it’s always interesting to hear from people like you, who live in states that presidential candidates actually compete in.

    You folks have sent not only the same party, but the same two JAPs, to the US Senate for 25 years. So I don’t feel sorry for your “lack of representation” at all.

    One-party states have always owned the Senate. Two-party states own the Electoral College. Live with it, work with it.

  121. says:
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    Same for Buffalo.

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  122. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that Pennsylvania was the closest of the Slippery Six…

    It was refreshing to see Minnesota included. Both sides are blinded by the four-decade “blue streak” of presidential electors. But consider that while being the only state to go Dem three times in the 1980s, Minnesota was also one of six states in that same decade represented in the US Senate only by Republicans. (Technically Independent-Republicans in those days; “I think, therefore IR”.)

    In addition, the Democrats (technically Democratic-Farmer-Labor) were shut out of the governor’s mansion for 20 years. Four of those by a Trumplike third-party professional wrestler.

    Stop by, Donald. We’ll leave the light on for you.

  123. Pittsburghers call it the mistake on the lake.

  124. You’re kidding, aren’t you?

    That’s the whole idea. I dare say it was from the very beginning.

    It’s impossible to be too cynical.

    We witnessed an interesting phenomenon in this regard with the term “hate group”. Originally, it was coined and applied to Klan and Nazi groups, who were (or were successors to these who were) responsible for the actual deaths of actual people. Then, the scope of the term was widened aggressively with the hope that the character of the perfectly peaceful political targets would be impugned by the connotation stemming from the term’s original meaning.

  125. Things would be so much simpler if people knew and digested that supply and demand applies to wages. The people I know who really hate Trump are also the food service and construction types who illegal immigration has hammered. They don’t get that $20/hour equivalent gigs in the 70s required labor scarcity. Yes much of the work was hard labor, which Americans won’t do for minimum wage because it’s easier to be a welfare recipient and have the same or better standard of living. But now illegal immigrants are doing that same hard work for minimum wage when labor scarcity would make it worthwhile for an American.

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  126. Steyn is just totally on fire, lately.

    “Trump is a monster of the GOP elite’s creation. And their solution to it is to use what’s meant to be a rebuttal to the President as a rebuttal to their own leading candidates and the two-thirds of their voters who support them. Truly this is the dumbest political party on the planet.”

  127. Never understood the argument about immigrants stealing native-born American’s jobs. The process as I see it is immigrants, mostly unskilled, come to America and find low-wage jobs. In that sense they “take” a job from someone else, but they turn around and spend all the money they earn, which creates jobs in every industry, e.g. the housing industry, automotive industry, consumer electronics industry. Honestly I find immigration positive because they occupy primarily low-skill jobs but their consumption creates jobs of all skill levels.

    Ignore the fact they are immigrants and count them as more population. How does more population cause job competition? By that logic China should have rampant unemployment. Was there a job crunch when the baby-boomers became working-age?

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  128. No chance. Many of these so-called “Slippery Six” are Hillary’s core strength areas. Recall that she consistently beat Obama in many of these states in ’08. Given her strength among both blacks and working joe whitey, she is already the presumptive President-Elect. She will tack towards the center nicely in the general, with all the requisite Clintonian cynicism, and trounce whatever idiot survives the GOP muddle.

    The Liberal Order will endure.

    I think the Invincible Clintons myth looks even sillier now than it was made to look in 2008. She’s getting hammered as we speak (Rapey husband, emailgate), and even getting the nomination is starting to look dicey.

    Hillary’s a lot weaker prospect than Obama in 2012. She’s a weak candidate, and people are currently tired of Dems, not the GOP. Dem turnout will be substantially lower than for Obama, Hillary excites no one. 2016 is totally winnable for Trump or Cruz.

  129. At least the Whites are doing their best to assimilate :)

  130. In Texas, lots of Hispanics vote Republican actually. The reason is because they self-identify with the macho white Texan culture.

    White Texan culture isn’t macho.

  131. [Cleveland] really is the Charlie Brown of cities.

    guy

    Same for Buffalo.

    And Newark.

    And Oakland.

  132. I doubt if the Republicans (or any established “conservative” party in the Anglosphere) will ever win over disaffected working-class whites. Working-class whites aren’t stupid.

    In the South, all classes of Whites vote Republican. They know the Democrats are the Black party. Working-class whites aren’t stupid.

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  133. Southern white politics is prelude to national white politics. When diversity reaches proportions that affect physical safety, poor whites will let themselves be exploited by rich whites rather than victimized by other groups.

    • Agree: Seamus Padraig
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  134. They spend all the money they earn– which isn’t much.

    They also exempt themselves from paying income tax. And get a big “refund” in EITC.

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  135. The lakefront i
    was historically predominantly industrial with some of it recreational, the mirror image of Chicago’s lakefront.

  136. says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Never understood the argument about immigrants stealing native-born American’s jobs.

    Yeah you do.

  137. Excuse me, diversity reached proportions that affect personal safety by the very method of exploitation by rich whites. No poor white person ever invited any nonwhite person here.

    Only two groups of people believe in liberal immigration, the rich and those paid by the rich.

    Southern white politics used to be quite leftist– Woody Guthrie was hardly an outlier. But see where it got them.

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  138. I thought they remitted it to the home countries.

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  139. Thanks Truth.

    Based on what you are saying and what I have seen elsewhere, I’m surprised to hear just 15%. So 85% to Hillary or Sanders?

    I’m not really sure why I even find this interesting, to tell the truth.

    It may be because I find myself surprised by my own support of him as a candidate.

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  140. Yup, and it is not just blue collar jobs now.

    As QE3 says, companies want to hire 50,000 Indian tech indentured servants for cheap who won’t go anywhere since their visa is tied to the company. And those 50,000 formerly employed Americans often have to train their replacements.

    I guess this stuff is common knowledge now.

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  141. You missed my point entirely. It was in relation to historical southern demographics and differential crime rates. And by “Southern white politics used to be quite leftist,” well, I don’t think that means what you think it means.

  142. And what they don’t send home is mostly spent in places operated by shady co-ethnics, with the attendant fraud. Almost every local story I read about Medicaid fraud and SNAP/WIC fraud involves immigrants. I can’t imagine it’s any different in the rest of the country.

  143. says:
         Show CommentNext New Comment

    Always worth repeating – especially the bit about people having to train their replacements which exposes perfectly all the spin about labor shortages and jobs Americans won’t do as just spin.

  144. Speaking of working class whites is a slippery slope. If Americans get the idea that there is a working class pretty soon they will be noticing that they are working class and that working class people of all colors have many interests in common. We all know what happens next. *COMMUNISM*

  145. White working class voters – especially women and Catholics – are of course not Republican ‘core voters’, they are swing voters that Democrats also need to win. Despite the media lies, Trump is excellently placed to take these swing votes. He could well take the Presidency – even with a minority of the popular vote – precisely because his appeal is greatest to this swing-vote constituency.

  146. It’s all about the recession which is coming more and more clearly into view. American voters never do what, for example, British voters did when they returned the Tories to power in 1992 despite a very bad economic situation and then kicked them out in 1997 despite a very good one.

  147. Yes, 15%, maybe 20% tops. No man is going to breech a lifetime of cultural acrimony in a year. I got into a heated argument with a friend of mine over something I told him once, He is a died in the wool Democrat and said that he would support Colin Powell if he ran for president some years ago. I told him, quite honestly, that if Powell were nominated by the Republicans, and David Duke by the Democrats; Duke would win the majority of black votes.

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  148. Ignore the fact they are immigrants and count them as more population. How does more population cause job competition?

    Capital is limited.

  149. Awesome.

  150. More of a broken record. Or a skipping CD.

  151. Agree. Will Trump have the stones, if it comes down to a general election campaign between he and Clinton, to run ads essentially showing all the BLM/campus weenies/Occupy/etc. idiocies with the voice over, “This is the past 8 years. Do you want more of the same?”?

  152. “Could Trump win New York State? I don’t think there is much polling data, but one can dream.”

    I can see Donald Trump easily winning the Italian vote in New York state, but winning the Italian demographic alone is not enough to carry the state in presidential elections. He would need a nice chunk of the Jewish, Puerto Rican, and Domincan vote as well.

  153. “Yes, and Hispanic males actually voted for Tony Abbot in the 2014 Republican gubernatorial race. As Steve’s noted, they tend to be trend followers, rather than setters, and in Texas, where the political tone is conservative, they’re assimilating into that groove. Of course, the “Latinos” of California vote almost like Blacks, because they’ve been exposed to a different set of cultural pressures. Its obviously unfortunate that Hispanics have become a significant component of the demographics of the Deep South and the Midwest, but as they assimilate into those cultures, the disadvantage they present on the electoral front, will be less severe than many had previously assumed. Black-versus-Hispanic enmity should speed up that process in the South, and in some of the big Midwestern cities.”

    If Hispanc Texans are so Republican, why do the counties who share a border with Mexico all extremely blue. In presidential elections, the Dems win Texas border counties by huge landslides. The closer you get to the Mexican border, the less Right Wing voters there are.

    Hillary Clinton is going to wipe the floor with Donald Trump in the Texas counties who share a border with Mexico.

    The border counties also have a large Mexican underclass. And you can’t expect the Mexican underclass to vote GOP. The poverty rate in the border counties is significantly higher than the Texas state average.

    The border counties are to Texas like what The Inland Empire and Stockton are to California.

  154. Thanks.

    Maybe he won’t do it in a year, but I can see him turning things around with a presidency.

    His rhetoric is already there and his policies will benefit many American blacks, too.

    Limiting illegals will push things up from the bottom.

    Who knows what will really happen, of course.

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