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From Vox, an article about factchecking that starts with an un-factchecked falsehood:

Trump supporters know Trump lies. They just don’t care.
A new study explains the psychological power — and hard limits — of fact-checking journalism.
Updated by Brian Resnick @B_resnickbrian@vox.com Jul 10, 2017

During the campaign — and into his presidency — Donald Trump repeatedly exaggerated and distorted crime statistics. “Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed,” he asserted in his dark speech at the Republican National Convention in July 2016. But the data here is unambiguous: FBI statistics show crime has been going down for decades.

Uh, the liberal Brennan Center estimated back in April 2017 that the homicide rate (the most reliable crime rate) was nationally 19% higher in 2016 than in 2014 and up 29% in the 30 biggest cities.

The homicide surge has been concentrated in cities where Black Lives Matter and its allies, such as the Democratic Administration, have been most influential, such as St. Louis, Baltimore, and Chicago. It appears to have begun with Ferguson in August 2014. So you can’t exactly debunk Trump’s statement of “Decades of progress made in bringing down crime are now being reversed” by pointing out that crime was going down for decades before the Democrats’ promoted Ferguson, MO into the Most Important City in World.

 
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  1. Jake says:

    Ideology means never having to pay attention to any facts. Liberals are above and beyond facts and logic.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Neil Templeton
    We are now far behind the looking glass. Uncharted territory. Brushing up against the tribes of Who, Whom, and Whatever. Truth is enslaved to Persuasion, and Understanding is resting among the mirrors, exhausted from pursuit by Narcissus. Thank you Steve, for helping to lay foundation and shelter for Noticing.
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  2. I’m kind of sympathetic to Steve here, but I also feel that he’s making a somewhat uncharitable reading of the linked article/omits some useful context.

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you’d figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn’t been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s—-the rate of every major violent crime about halved—means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it’s worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn’t Trump’s fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.

    Read More
    • Replies: @anonymous

    a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true.
     
    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides. Yet we don't hear Vox or the MSM apologizing for misleading the public. Yet they seem to be up in arms over Trump's crime claim causing a misperception.

    One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing?

    What are the consequences of people believing Trump's claim? More votes going to the GOP? I believe if the public's misperception of crime stats led to an increase in democrat votes, they'd have no problem with it all.
    , @TWS
    If I cut off your hand where 20 years before someone had been cutting off your arms but had stopped for those twenty years, you might be forgiven for believing that things were worse than twenty years ago. The pain is immediate, severe, and bad enough that it hurts now.

    The crime is horrible now. Crime is cyclical but if you ignore it or down play it, it only gets worse. You have to hammer at the liberals or they will refuse to stop crime, incarcerate criminals, or put consequences to actions. If society goes your route we will wind up with hundreds of thousands more dead over the decades. Literally. That's what happened last time we liberalized criminal justice.

    You might be ok with that but I'm not.

    Further, you say that it only affects lower class blacks thus not Trump voters. Trump was elected the president of the entire nation. He genuinely cares about all law abiding citizens. How hard is that for you liberals to understand?
    , @daninMD12
    Here is an interesting headline from two days ago:

    "1 dead, 32 wounded in weekend shootings across Chicago"

    http://abc7chicago.com/news/1-dead-32-wounded-in-weekend-shootings-across-chicago/2198760/

    Out of approximately 33 attempted murders (or a lot more actually when you take into account all the shots that miss completely), only one murder attempt was successful. Many of the other 32 got so many gallons of blood transfusions and so many heart-restarts that their dead bodies were reanimated back to thug life.

    If we had the same level of care that we had 30 years ago, I am guessing the homicide rate would be double what it actually is.

    The skyrocketing homicide rates are *after* taking into account that a lot of the homicide victims are revived from a dead condition through miracle medicine.

    Steve Scalise would have been a homicide victim twice in an earlier era, first from blood loss and then from infection.

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  3. Anonymous says: • Disclaimer

    Why is it liberals brand themselves the party of data, Science, facts, rationality? They of course fancy themselves deeply humanistic, unbigoted, judgemental only of individuals. So why do they think their liberal truths will out themselves in aggregates? Personal responsiblity is anathema, Man is a product of society, so they just need to read the meters and tweak the dials (and to ensure the premise is true, enlarge Society’s control)? Are they uncertain about their foundations, so feel a custodial duty to control interpretation of data? Is it a vestigial irreligosity: tradition is superstition, so of course science will disprove long-held commonsense beliefs about groups of people? They just like belonging to a secular priesthood interpreting scripture? “Hi, I’m a [rocket] scientist.” (Am I missing any?)

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  4. OT: It appears an Air Force recruiting center (that would have been closed at this hour) just suffered a huge explosion in Tulsa, OK. I have the above from an eyewitness that works very close to the center and was outside when it happened.

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  5. We saw the same sort of thing here:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect

    And Trump’s assumptions of expertise go beyond ordinary appliances and policy issues. He recently advised the Navy on how to improve aircraft carrier technology: “It sounded bad to me. Digital. They have digital. What is digital? And it’s very complicated, you have to be Albert Einstein to figure it out.”

    A confession of ignorance is an “assumption” [sic] of expertise?

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  6. Read More
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  7. @Jake
    Ideology means never having to pay attention to any facts. Liberals are above and beyond facts and logic.

    We are now far behind the looking glass. Uncharted territory. Brushing up against the tribes of Who, Whom, and Whatever. Truth is enslaved to Persuasion, and Understanding is resting among the mirrors, exhausted from pursuit by Narcissus. Thank you Steve, for helping to lay foundation and shelter for Noticing.

    Read More
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  8. anonymous says: • Disclaimer
    @the Supreme Gentleman
    I'm kind of sympathetic to Steve here, but I also feel that he's making a somewhat uncharitable reading of the linked article/omits some useful context.

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you'd figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn't been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s----the rate of every major violent crime about halved---means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it's worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn't Trump's fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.

    a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true.

    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides. Yet we don’t hear Vox or the MSM apologizing for misleading the public. Yet they seem to be up in arms over Trump’s crime claim causing a misperception.

    One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing?

    What are the consequences of people believing Trump’s claim? More votes going to the GOP? I believe if the public’s misperception of crime stats led to an increase in democrat votes, they’d have no problem with it all.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Lurker

    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides.
     
    People often talk about bias and fake news with respect to news & current affairs media but the real faking is happening across all media - whether it's kid's TV, reality shows or whatever. The lies and misrepresentations are everywhere. Even focusing on just news media is another misdirection of a kind.
    , @Logan
    The typical American believes 1/3 of the population is black, which is close to a 3x over-estimate. 17% of Americans believe the population is more than half black. Similar notions apply to Hispanic numbers.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/4435/public-overestimates-us-black-hispanic-populations.aspx
    , @Not Raul
    >> One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing? <<

    People who think that gay marriage should be legal think that 25.1% of the population is gay/lesbian/etc.

    People who think that gay marriage should NOT be legal think that 24.1% of the population is gay/lesbian/etc.

    See Gallup page you linked to.

    Pro-gay marriage views are not driven by the belief that a large percentage of the population is gay.
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  9. gregor says:

    The left has really been hanging their hat on the “record low” crime rates. But this ignores that the crimes rates don’t fully reflect the threat and cost of crime. Observed crime rates can be mitigated significantly through altered behaviors. People aren’t just going to being victimized over and over without adjusting. White flight out of the cities, learning to avoid “certain areas,” private security, etc. are all mitigating behaviors that have no doubt lowered observed crime rates, even while the threat still lurks. The cost of having to abandon large sections of formerly attractive downtowns is itself a crime problem.

    Moreover, these very hyped decreases were in relation to appalling highs. Really, given enhanced technology and improved medical care, it is a massive failure to just now be getting back to the crimes rates of several decades ago. Even granting that crime is “low,” that doesn’t mean that prospectively we can’t reverse that trend with stupid enough policies. As happened in the 1960s and as they are trying to do again with BLM and “criminal justice reform.”

    Lastly, I simply do not believe the crime statistics coming out of the major cities. They are under pressure to report better figures and they have a lot of control over what gets reported and how exactly it gets classified.

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    • Agree: Almost Missouri
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  10. guest says:

    “Trump supporters know Trump lies”

    Everybody lies, as Dr. House, M.D. told us.

    Speaking of the “hard limits” of fact checking, hey, the game ain’t won by facts alone. No, nor even things you say are facts in a serious tone of voice with schoolmarmish airs. You need other forms of propaganda, too.

    Read More
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  11. Harold says:

    Fake checking.

    Read More
    • Agree: Abe
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  12. What are the consequences of people believing Trump’s claim? More votes going to the GOP?

    The negative consequence of people believing Trump’s claim is continued or greater support for America’s ridiculously overmilitarized police forces. Maybe Baltimore has the opposite problem, but when my neighboring town in white rural NH demands taxpayer money for a SWAT team we have a problem, and it’s not crime.

    Anyone my age knows that the cities where white elites live – New York, Boston, DC, Los Angeles – are all much safer than they were 20-30 years ago, so Trumps assertions strike even Republican voters in those cities as prima facie ridiculous, even if they are factually true. Part of the reason those cities are safer is that blacks have been pushed out, or at least overwhelmed by, waves of hispanic immigrants. The drop in crime is yet another reason why white coastal elites tend to think in positive terms about hispanic immigrants.

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  13. It’s not like Trump isn’t a compulsive liar about almost everything. The person writing the article just happened get derailed by a comment Trump made about one of the of issues where the media also compulsively lies.

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  14. Lurker says:
    @anonymous

    a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true.
     
    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides. Yet we don't hear Vox or the MSM apologizing for misleading the public. Yet they seem to be up in arms over Trump's crime claim causing a misperception.

    One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing?

    What are the consequences of people believing Trump's claim? More votes going to the GOP? I believe if the public's misperception of crime stats led to an increase in democrat votes, they'd have no problem with it all.

    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides.

    People often talk about bias and fake news with respect to news & current affairs media but the real faking is happening across all media – whether it’s kid’s TV, reality shows or whatever. The lies and misrepresentations are everywhere. Even focusing on just news media is another misdirection of a kind.

    Read More
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  15. Logan says:
    @anonymous

    a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true.
     
    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides. Yet we don't hear Vox or the MSM apologizing for misleading the public. Yet they seem to be up in arms over Trump's crime claim causing a misperception.

    One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing?

    What are the consequences of people believing Trump's claim? More votes going to the GOP? I believe if the public's misperception of crime stats led to an increase in democrat votes, they'd have no problem with it all.

    The typical American believes 1/3 of the population is black, which is close to a 3x over-estimate. 17% of Americans believe the population is more than half black. Similar notions apply to Hispanic numbers.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/4435/public-overestimates-us-black-hispanic-populations.aspx

    Read More
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  16. The Democrat Party is controlled by the Black Lives Matter Mob, government workers and Jewish donors. The Democrat Party and Hillary Clinton riled up the Black Lives Matter Mob in Chicago, Baltimore and other cities. The Democrat Party makes sure government workers get their cut of the loot from the collapsing American Empire. Jewish donors such as Tom Steyer and George Soros bankroll the Black Lives Matter Mob and the Global Warming Scaremongers. (It says on the internet that Steyer’s mother was Episcopalian. Episcopalian like Madeleine Albright?)

    That anti-Trump outfit called Vox says something about FBI crime statistics? How about Vox look into the crime rates for Blacks in the United States? Are Blacks involved in criminal activity at a higher rate than Whites or Asians? Who is creating all the crime in New York City?

    US Jews contribute half of all donations to the Democratic Party http://www.jpost.com/US-Elections/US-Jews-contribute-half-of-all-donations-to-the-Democratic-party-468774

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  17. TWS says:
    @the Supreme Gentleman
    I'm kind of sympathetic to Steve here, but I also feel that he's making a somewhat uncharitable reading of the linked article/omits some useful context.

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you'd figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn't been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s----the rate of every major violent crime about halved---means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it's worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn't Trump's fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.

    If I cut off your hand where 20 years before someone had been cutting off your arms but had stopped for those twenty years, you might be forgiven for believing that things were worse than twenty years ago. The pain is immediate, severe, and bad enough that it hurts now.

    The crime is horrible now. Crime is cyclical but if you ignore it or down play it, it only gets worse. You have to hammer at the liberals or they will refuse to stop crime, incarcerate criminals, or put consequences to actions. If society goes your route we will wind up with hundreds of thousands more dead over the decades. Literally. That’s what happened last time we liberalized criminal justice.

    You might be ok with that but I’m not.

    Further, you say that it only affects lower class blacks thus not Trump voters. Trump was elected the president of the entire nation. He genuinely cares about all law abiding citizens. How hard is that for you liberals to understand?

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  18. FBI statistics show crime has been going down for decades.

    We should try this in other contexts.

    “Sure, Your Honor, my client shot the victim last week. But the victim had a great run, having been alive for twenty seven years uninterrupted and racking up living years! The trend is clearly bullish for the victim’s living. How can we put all of our eggs in a small sample size like a week or two?”

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  19. DaninMD12 says:

    “One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you’d figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.”

    The ‘America is getting worse’ argument is relevant whether or not you are black.

    “Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn’t been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. ”

    Homicides are *the* most reliable statistic because you can’t really massage those numbers. Lots of the other stuff never gets counted. And with homicides, you are undercounting in a way because emergency room care has gotten so good. For example, 102 people got shot in Chicago over the holiday weekend (virtually all were attempted murders presumably) and 87 of them lived.

    “Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s—-the rate of every major violent crime about halved—means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate.”

    The reversal is statistically significant. Also, comparing against the trend line, the increase is even larger.

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  20. daninMD12 says:
    @the Supreme Gentleman
    I'm kind of sympathetic to Steve here, but I also feel that he's making a somewhat uncharitable reading of the linked article/omits some useful context.

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you'd figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn't been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s----the rate of every major violent crime about halved---means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it's worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn't Trump's fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.

    Here is an interesting headline from two days ago:

    “1 dead, 32 wounded in weekend shootings across Chicago”

    http://abc7chicago.com/news/1-dead-32-wounded-in-weekend-shootings-across-chicago/2198760/

    Out of approximately 33 attempted murders (or a lot more actually when you take into account all the shots that miss completely), only one murder attempt was successful. Many of the other 32 got so many gallons of blood transfusions and so many heart-restarts that their dead bodies were reanimated back to thug life.

    If we had the same level of care that we had 30 years ago, I am guessing the homicide rate would be double what it actually is.

    The skyrocketing homicide rates are *after* taking into account that a lot of the homicide victims are revived from a dead condition through miracle medicine.

    Steve Scalise would have been a homicide victim twice in an earlier era, first from blood loss and then from infection.

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  21. Not Raul says:
    @anonymous

    a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true.
     
    We also have a survey from Gallup that shows nearly half of Americans believe homosexuals comprise 25 percent of the population. This is more than likely due to the excessive coverage the media provides. Yet we don't hear Vox or the MSM apologizing for misleading the public. Yet they seem to be up in arms over Trump's crime claim causing a misperception.

    One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing?

    What are the consequences of people believing Trump's claim? More votes going to the GOP? I believe if the public's misperception of crime stats led to an increase in democrat votes, they'd have no problem with it all.

    >> One could argue that public support for gay marriage might be overstated if indeed so many people believe gays are 1 in 4 of the population. If everyone knew the actual figure was closer to 2 percent, would the issue of gay marriage be as pressing? <<

    People who think that gay marriage should be legal think that 25.1% of the population is gay/lesbian/etc.

    People who think that gay marriage should NOT be legal think that 24.1% of the population is gay/lesbian/etc.

    See Gallup page you linked to.

    Pro-gay marriage views are not driven by the belief that a large percentage of the population is gay.

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  22. Next time someone gives me that “crime has been trending down” bit, I’ll say I’m not worried about global warming because overall the world has gotten colder over the course of the Cenozoic Era.

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  23. Luke Lea says:

    “But the data here is unambiguous: FBI statistics show crime has been going down for decades.”

    As long as you put it like that, crime has been going down for centuries according to Steven Pinker. And sea levels have been rising since the end of the last Ice Age.

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  24. Svigor says:

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you’d figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has

    Whoa, hold up a sec. What was “one”? It looks like just an observation without any obvious relevance. You’re going to have to slow down and explain your point to some of us dummies in the audience.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn’t been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.

    As Steve pointed out, murder is the gold standard of crime stats. 1, you don’t come back from it. 2, it’s much worse than almost any other crime. 3, it’s a much more reliable stat because of 2 and 3, and because there’s a body to explain.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s—-the rate of every major violent crime about halved—means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)

    This doesn’t seem particularly relevant to me. The numbers are still fairly big. It’s not like we went from 1 murder to 2 and are squawking about crime doubling.

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it’s worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn’t Trump’s fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.

    This is pretty funny, considering acting like crime stats began in the nineties, and don’t themselves constitute a peak in violent crime rates, is the same sort of error as the one you’re describing.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    He's the Vox Explainer, it's pretty bad when he's still clueless that there was a historically remarkable increase in the homicide rate in the two years immediately preceding Trump's speech, almost certainly due to the Democrats' Ferguson/BLM.
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  25. Svigor says:

    The negative consequence of people believing Trump’s claim is continued or greater support for America’s ridiculously overmilitarized police forces. Maybe Baltimore has the opposite problem, but when my neighboring town in white rural NH demands taxpayer money for a SWAT team we have a problem, and it’s not crime.

    Does anyone have hard stats for the down sides of this overmilitarization? I guess what I’m asking here is, WTF does overmilitarization really mean? Okay, it means cops have surplus military gear and weapons from our wars. But what does that really add up to? Has there been a big spike in innocent grannies killed? How many squished grannies and flattened houses are we talking here? I can’t remember reading about a single BLM martyr dying by SWAT.

    For all we know, the perception that the cops are overmilitarized has contributed to the recent downtrend in crime rates.

    Anyone my age knows that the cities where white elites live – New York, Boston, DC, Los Angeles – are all much safer than they were 20-30 years ago, so Trumps assertions strike even Republican voters in those cities as prima facie ridiculous, even if they are factually true. Part of the reason those cities are safer is that blacks have been pushed out, or at least overwhelmed by, waves of hispanic immigrants. The drop in crime is yet another reason why white coastal elites tend to think in positive terms about hispanic immigrants.

    Do they all know there was a huge spike in violent crime 20-30 years ago? That coming down from that is no great shakes?

    Not Raul says:
    July 11, 2017 at 2:52 pm GMT • 100 Words

    The shares could still be moved by perception of the size of the homo population, for all you know. It could also move intensity of belief.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Peter Akuleyev

    I guess what I’m asking here is, WTF does overmilitarization really mean
     
    It means taxpayer money being wasted for no reason. In libertarian states like New Hampshire we don't want or need overbearing police forces. If you want that in LA or Alabama, enjoy, but leave us in peace.

    Police in the US shot and killed over 960 people in 2016, most of them white. Police kill far more white people every year than Islamic terrorists do. And no one seems to have data on how many white people are shot and not killed by police. Maybe you need to leave the US to get some perspective, but police on civilian violence looks out of control in the US compared to civilized countries like Australia or Canada.

    Do they all know there was a huge spike in violent crime 20-30 years ago?

    No, because the huge spike in violent crime was in the 1960s - 50 years ago. 20-30 years ago was when crime began to drop. About the same time that massive numbers of hispanics began showing up.
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  26. Svigor says:

    I know I like one aspect of “overmilitarization”: LAPD patrol cars now carry at least one M4 in the trunk. Last I heard anyway. A capital idea, IMO.

    Read More
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  27. Olorin says:

    Before the Dems talked about “truthiness.”

    Now they’re pushing “lie-y-ness.”

    Read More
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  28. @Svigor

    One, the increase in the homicide rate over the past two years has mostly materially affected urban blacks in a few cities like Baltimore and Chicago, not really the kind of people who you’d figure Trump was hoping to reach in that speech or expecting to vote for him.

    Two, while homicide has
     
    Whoa, hold up a sec. What was "one"? It looks like just an observation without any obvious relevance. You're going to have to slow down and explain your point to some of us dummies in the audience.

    Two, while homicide has increased notably, there hasn’t been much change/increase in the other major violent crimes of robbery, rape and assault. (Unlike in the 1960s.) Specifically, the Brennan Center report that Steve cited provides a figure of a 2.9% increase for 2015 and a 6.3% increase for 2016 in violent crime overall.
     
    As Steve pointed out, murder is the gold standard of crime stats. 1, you don't come back from it. 2, it's much worse than almost any other crime. 3, it's a much more reliable stat because of 2 and 3, and because there's a body to explain.

    Three, the considerable decline in the overall crime rate since the 1990s—-the rate of every major violent crime about halved—means that a relatively small absolute increase can produce a larger percentage increase in the crime rate. (Though of course, as Steve has pointed out often, we would expect a secular decline the crime rate due to the advance/proliferation of medical/surveillance technology.)
     
    This doesn't seem particularly relevant to me. The numbers are still fairly big. It's not like we went from 1 murder to 2 and are squawking about crime doubling.

    Finally, while as it is the Vox article is imprecise about this and Steve is right to point this out, it’s worth noting that the article links to another article citing a survey purportedly showing that 69% of Americans believe that violent crime has increased from 2 decades ago, a serious deficit in public understanding if true. While this isn’t Trump’s fault, people listening to the speech may not have gathered the magnitude of the decline in the violent crime rate since the 1990s, relative to the concerning but as of yet smaller increase of the past couple years.
     
    This is pretty funny, considering acting like crime stats began in the nineties, and don't themselves constitute a peak in violent crime rates, is the same sort of error as the one you're describing.

    He’s the Vox Explainer, it’s pretty bad when he’s still clueless that there was a historically remarkable increase in the homicide rate in the two years immediately preceding Trump’s speech, almost certainly due to the Democrats’ Ferguson/BLM.

    Read More
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  29. Svigor says:

    He’s the Vox Explainer, it’s pretty bad when he’s still clueless that there was a historically remarkable increase in the homicide rate in the two years immediately preceding Trump’s speech, almost certainly due to the Democrats’ Ferguson/BLM.

    Who is? Supreme Gentleman? If so, WTF; I leave for a couple weeks and we get a Vox Explainer? Man I always miss the cool stuff, no matter when I go to the bathroom.

    I’m grateful that iSteve now has a Vox Explainer, if that’s really the case. It’s a tough job, and you need the skin of a rhino. But we could really use more such – I wish him a long tenure.

    Read More
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  30. Svigor says:

    The ongoing insanity of the left: they’re suing Trump for blocking Twitterers; apparently Trump’s Twitter account is gov’t property, and blocking people from using it violates the 1st Amendment.

    Except AFAIK, Trump had the same account for years before becoming PotUS, and there was no nationalization process that I am aware of.

    Do libs know all of this is going on their permanent record?

    Read More
    • Replies: @Grace Jones
    I've been blocked from a couple of US government Twitter accounts, with no ambiguity about their ownership. I'm hoping they win on the government issue.
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  31. Cobre says:

    Have we not discussed before that the homicide rate had largely been in a two-decade decline due to the faster and improved actions of first responders and trauma centers rather than better societal trust?

    Ferguson / Baltimore / Chicago cultures have changed with a constituency that doesn’t want to be policed while actively putting holes into each other at a rate higher than the national norms. They get slower response times from the first responders. More people die in transit or because of delayed transit and treatment, one would presume.

    Does this mean crime is actually going up by that homicide stat? Or is baseline crime roughly the same with deferred access to expedient treatment which just yields more headline homicide numbers?

    Read More
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  32. @Svigor
    The ongoing insanity of the left: they're suing Trump for blocking Twitterers; apparently Trump's Twitter account is gov't property, and blocking people from using it violates the 1st Amendment.

    Except AFAIK, Trump had the same account for years before becoming PotUS, and there was no nationalization process that I am aware of.

    Do libs know all of this is going on their permanent record?

    I’ve been blocked from a couple of US government Twitter accounts, with no ambiguity about their ownership. I’m hoping they win on the government issue.

    Read More
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  33. @Svigor

    The negative consequence of people believing Trump’s claim is continued or greater support for America’s ridiculously overmilitarized police forces. Maybe Baltimore has the opposite problem, but when my neighboring town in white rural NH demands taxpayer money for a SWAT team we have a problem, and it’s not crime.
     
    Does anyone have hard stats for the down sides of this overmilitarization? I guess what I'm asking here is, WTF does overmilitarization really mean? Okay, it means cops have surplus military gear and weapons from our wars. But what does that really add up to? Has there been a big spike in innocent grannies killed? How many squished grannies and flattened houses are we talking here? I can't remember reading about a single BLM martyr dying by SWAT.

    For all we know, the perception that the cops are overmilitarized has contributed to the recent downtrend in crime rates.

    Anyone my age knows that the cities where white elites live – New York, Boston, DC, Los Angeles – are all much safer than they were 20-30 years ago, so Trumps assertions strike even Republican voters in those cities as prima facie ridiculous, even if they are factually true. Part of the reason those cities are safer is that blacks have been pushed out, or at least overwhelmed by, waves of hispanic immigrants. The drop in crime is yet another reason why white coastal elites tend to think in positive terms about hispanic immigrants.
     
    Do they all know there was a huge spike in violent crime 20-30 years ago? That coming down from that is no great shakes?

    Not Raul says:
    July 11, 2017 at 2:52 pm GMT • 100 Words
    @anonymous
     
    The shares could still be moved by perception of the size of the homo population, for all you know. It could also move intensity of belief.

    I guess what I’m asking here is, WTF does overmilitarization really mean

    It means taxpayer money being wasted for no reason. In libertarian states like New Hampshire we don’t want or need overbearing police forces. If you want that in LA or Alabama, enjoy, but leave us in peace.

    Police in the US shot and killed over 960 people in 2016, most of them white. Police kill far more white people every year than Islamic terrorists do. And no one seems to have data on how many white people are shot and not killed by police. Maybe you need to leave the US to get some perspective, but police on civilian violence looks out of control in the US compared to civilized countries like Australia or Canada.

    Do they all know there was a huge spike in violent crime 20-30 years ago?

    No, because the huge spike in violent crime was in the 1960s – 50 years ago. 20-30 years ago was when crime began to drop. About the same time that massive numbers of hispanics began showing up.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Anon87
    Police still don't need MRAPs. Playing dress-up in SWAT gear is borderline. Vests, handgun, shotgun, and perhaps an M4 should be enough for 99.99% of police work. Anything else is budget bloat at best, criminal waste at worst.
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  34. Anon87 says:
    @Peter Akuleyev

    I guess what I’m asking here is, WTF does overmilitarization really mean
     
    It means taxpayer money being wasted for no reason. In libertarian states like New Hampshire we don't want or need overbearing police forces. If you want that in LA or Alabama, enjoy, but leave us in peace.

    Police in the US shot and killed over 960 people in 2016, most of them white. Police kill far more white people every year than Islamic terrorists do. And no one seems to have data on how many white people are shot and not killed by police. Maybe you need to leave the US to get some perspective, but police on civilian violence looks out of control in the US compared to civilized countries like Australia or Canada.

    Do they all know there was a huge spike in violent crime 20-30 years ago?

    No, because the huge spike in violent crime was in the 1960s - 50 years ago. 20-30 years ago was when crime began to drop. About the same time that massive numbers of hispanics began showing up.

    Police still don’t need MRAPs. Playing dress-up in SWAT gear is borderline. Vests, handgun, shotgun, and perhaps an M4 should be enough for 99.99% of police work. Anything else is budget bloat at best, criminal waste at worst.

    Read More
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