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U.N. Population Projection for Africa in 2100 Doubled from 2004 to 2015
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When thinking about the reasons for European politicians’ disastrous 2015 response to the Camp of the Saints, one subtle reason was likely due to the Establishment falling badly out of date on population trends.

From Humanosphere:

OpEd: Africa’s challenging demographic future
22 OCTOBER 2015

By John Bongaarts, special to Humanosphere

Our planet is expected to have 11.2 billion people in 2100, according to the U.N.’s just-released revision of the medium world population projections. With a 2015 population of 7.3 billion, this represents an increase of 3.9 billion over the remainder of this century. The projected expansion of human numbers is very unevenly spread around the world, with declines in Europe and East Asia and modest further growth in South and West Asia and in North and South America. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to continue expanding rapidly with its population quadrupling from 0.96 to 3.93 billion between 2015 and 2100. The bulk of future world population growth will be in this continent.

The new projection for the world is the highest ever made by the U.N. In fact, it is 2.1 billion higher than the U.N. projection published in 2004, which expected a world population of just 9.1 billion in 2100. A revision of this magnitude in such a short time is unprecedented. Also surprising, this upward revision is largely confined to one area of the world – sub-Saharan Africa – where the projection for 2100 increased from 1.9 billion to 3.9 billion inhabitants. Instead of expecting 1 billion more Africans according to the 2004 projection, the U.N. now expects 3 billion more by 2100 (see Figure 1).

The U.N.’s 2008 projections boosted Africa’s forecast for 2050 over the low-ball 2004 projection, but that 2008 paper didn’t go past 2050, so the stats weren’t as boggling as when the U.N. went back to making a 2100 projection in 2012.

The U.N. continuously monitors demographic trends in countries around the world and regularly updates its projections to ensure they are consistent with the most recent information. There is one obvious and welcome reason for the upward revision for sub-Saharan Africa since 2004: the success in conquering the AIDS epidemic over the past decade. …

Another, but less well-known, cause of the revision is the slower than expected decline in birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa over the past two decades. Until the late 1990s, conventional wisdom expected Africa’s fertility to follow the path of Asian and Latin American countries in the 1960 and ’70s, which saw fairly rapid fertility declines in particular when women gained access to schooling and to contraceptive methods. But in most of Africa, family planning programs have been neglected, and fertility declines have occurred later and at a slower pace than in other continents. In a number of countries in Africa, fertility rates have actually stalled after an initial decline.

A related reason is that record-keeping of births has improved in Africa. The U.N. demographers have discovered that their old estimates of the current number of births were undercounts due to African ineptitude. But as African governments have gotten better at counting, the size of the present population keeps getting re-estimated upward.

Adding 3 billion people to the world’s poorest region in the next 85 years will hamper development and may lead to a continent in chaos. …

What can be done? A straightforward and highly desirable solution exists: invest in voluntary family-planning programs. …

The rationale for these programs lies in the substantial unsatisfied demand for contraception in sub-Saharan Africa and throughout the developing world. … Yet a large proportion of these women (more than one-half in some countries) are not practicing effective contraception and are therefore at risk of pregnancy. As a result, unintended pregnancies are common. According to the Guttmacher Institute, more than one third of pregnancies are unintended in sub-Saharan Africa. …

The future trajectory of population is highly sensitive to minor changes in the fertility trend. As a result, any program-induced fertility decline can have a large impact on population growth. This impact can be estimated by a comparison of published variants of the U.N. population projections for sub-Saharan Africa. While the standard (medium variant) projection for sub-Saharan Africa expects 3.96 billion in 2100, the corresponding U.N. low variant projection (based on reducing fertility by a half birth during the projection) leads to a population of only 2.60 billion in 2100, a reduction of 1.4 billion. Past experience has shown that well-designed programs can reduce fertility by 1.0 to 1.5 births, and such programs, if implemented now throughout the continent, can therefore reduce the population in 2100 to or even below this low variant.

But, the world has to get started now on helping Africans be more responsible about reproduction. The more time the white countries waste worrying about whether helping African women not get pregnant is racist, the worse for Africa and the entire world.

With sufficient political will and resources, well-run voluntary programs have contributed to sustained declines in fertility and population growth across much of Asia, the Middle East and Latin America and in some countries in Africa, simply by permitting people to realize their individual reproductive goals. …

John Bongaarts is a vice president and distinguished scholar at the Population Council, an organization that conducts research and delivers solutions to improve lives around the world. Bongaarts is a member of the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He was named Laureate of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) in 2013.

 
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  1. If something cannot continue, it will not continue.

    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening…

    Dave Miller in Sacramento

    Read More
    • Replies: @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)
    , @Hippopotamusdrome


    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening…

     

    One billion emigrate to Europe, One billion emigrate to America. Maybe China gets on the immigration bandwagon, one billion there too.
    , @Anonym
    I'm thinking strategically located KFCs with trap doors in front of the entrances will play a part in the solution.

    But seriously, we will shut our borders long before then, and quite possibly repatriate. It is common knowledge that virtually every white country has an immigration problem. Popular newspapers discuss Islamic concepts that once were esoteric. There is nowhere left to flee. 10 years ago far right parties were marginalized. Now they are booming. It does not take an Einstein to work out where things will be in 2025. Certainly attitudes will be significantly to the right of where they are now, and policy too.

    ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc.
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  2. @PhysicistDave
    If something cannot continue, it will not continue.

    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening...

    Dave Miller in Sacramento

    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)

    Read More
    • Replies: @bomag
    Commodity food is cheap. We could provide the calories for that population.

    But then there is modern information flow and modern travel methods. Here they come; and Sweden will look like Liberia. I suppose then they will stop coming.

    "Amateurs think tactics; professionals think logistics."
    , @The most deplorable one

    why not?
     
    After a while people get sick of free loaders and start thinking of solutions.
    , @Daniel Williams

    It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans ...
     
    Not unless they can eat iPods. There is a finite amount of food and clean water that can be produced elsewhere and shipped to Africa.

    Bags of rice won't cut it when the entire village can use their phones to see what meals look like in Italy.
    , @WhatEvvs
    Right.

    http://ak-hdl.buzzfed.com/static/2014-12/29/0/enhanced/webdr04/enhanced-20019-1419830830-1.jpg
    , @AnAnon
    Planet Earth's arable landmass doesn't increase geometrically, clean water is running out(more can be produced via desal, but that becomes cost prohibitive), and the wheels are starting to come off of the green revolution with new stemrot variants and some resource shortages. Of course your last line there demonstrates why what can not continue will not continue.
  3. on this blog we have often talked about the most important graph in the world. Actually I think the graph is the most important graph. And one does not have to have super-forecasting abilities to say with high certainty that the UN demographers will again be TOTALLY SURPRISED when the publish their new projection in 2017 and see that the forecast for subsaharan Africa again will be much higher than the last time. Actually I think up to 2020 the UN-forecast for subsaharan Africa will have two digits.

    Read More
  4. Ineptitude is certainly one factor. Projecting European trends on Africans is another. But what about AIDS in Africa?

    For several years, the press published gobsmacking estimates for African AIDS infection rates, many of them coming straight from the UN.

    I expect the UN (under heavy scientific criticism) has significantly reassessed the effect of AIDS on the African population.

    Read More
  5. Steve, if you think that learning about population trends would stop the European (((elites’))) suigenocidal crusade, I have seafront property in Kansas to sell you.

    Read More
  6. This Bongaarts is a fossil from the mid-20th century – 1957, say, when the UN released a detailed and increased set of projections which first made it mainstream to worry about rising world population. Doesn’t he know it’s all good, as long as the people breeding aren’t white? Every SJW knows that, and so does every globalising economist.

    Read More
  7. IIRC a few years ago Congo qualified by play to be in the Little League World Series – then disqualified because most of the players ages couldn’t be documented (got to be 14 or under before the opening game of the tournament).
    You get an overwhelmingly African population, you get all sorts of problems – see Haiti and Detroit for examples.

    Read More
  8. Anon says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    “But, the world has to get started now on helping Africans be more responsible about reproduction.”

    But they don’t want to be helped.

    Read More
  9. As with everything else, it’s the fault of those Evil White Men.

    They really must stop making life for everyone on the planet longer and safer.

    What are we paying the clowns at Fort Detrick for if not to solve problems like this?

    Read More
  10. Bill Gates has come out and said ‘socialism’ is the future. Not for him of course but for the rest of us and his ‘league of billionaires’ should work to preclude any new oligarchs from arising to thwart this vision of the future. Gates says that the great danger to the planet is the element ‘carbon’ but only if it is in the form of fuel. If it is biological carbon, in the form of low IQ Africans, it isn’t a problem. Thus Gates, a supposedly rational man, sees no contradiction in his philanthropic efforts to reduce childhood mortality in Africa and, at the same time warn of an climatic holocaust if we do not stop using fossil fuels.

    Read More
  11. Anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    Steve,
    Why do you think that the powers-that-be actually think it is a problem?

    I mean, just look at all those freshly minted new Labour Party voters.
    Just look at all that cheap labor – Economist editorialists are salivating already.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    automation in the near future would just make all those africans to be useless mouths to feed.
  12. “But, the world has to get started now on helping Africans be more responsible about reproduction.”

    Or at least, as per Hilaire Belloc, the world should start stocking up now on machine-gun ammunition.

    Read More
  13. @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)

    Commodity food is cheap. We could provide the calories for that population.

    But then there is modern information flow and modern travel methods. Here they come; and Sweden will look like Liberia. I suppose then they will stop coming.

    “Amateurs think tactics; professionals think logistics.”

    Read More
  14. WGG [AKA "World's Greatest Grandson"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    There is only one solution: quarantine. We can try other methods to help them with birth control, but they will probably mostly fail. That’s why quarantine must be in place.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Big Bill
    Crispr/CAS9 or their successors. You may not even know anything happened until a decade or two after the vector was released.
  15. When thinking about family planning, SWPLs and SJWs assume that women from other cultures are like them in wanting fewer than 2.3 children per couple.

    For the most part, this is not the case. A woman saddled with seven children might have preferred to have five, or four. Often, that number depends on how many of them turn out to be boys.

    If John Bongaarts got out more (or read iSteve), he would know that. More likely, he does know, but prefers to lecture in the Victorian style — politely eliding indelicate truths.

    Read More
  16. The key to reducing Africa’s population growth is lowering the amount of foreign aid to Africa. Around a trillion dollars of foreign aid was given to Africa and yet their problems have only gotten worst over the decades. Dambisa Moyo wrote about it in her book Dead Aid .We have all seen at least one of those “donate to help feed starving children” ads. People from Western nations get a massive guilt trip and donate out of their pockets to futilely help people from these countries. All that money could have been used to help people in Western countries.

    Giving them food is probably the worst thing to do since it allows Africans to feed themselves on the bare minimum and keep having kids. Many of these kids stay alive at the starving point and then more food is given to them as a result. Western intervention lets them multiply. It’s a disastrous cycle.

    Read More
  17. The most deplorable one [AKA "Fourth doorman of the apocalypse"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)

    why not?

    After a while people get sick of free loaders and start thinking of solutions.

    Read More
  18. @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)

    It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans …

    Not unless they can eat iPods. There is a finite amount of food and clean water that can be produced elsewhere and shipped to Africa.

    Bags of rice won’t cut it when the entire village can use their phones to see what meals look like in Italy.

    Read More
    • Agree: Jim Don Bob
    • Replies: @Big Bill
    According to the UN, Africans only cultivate 20-30% of their arable land. The Chinese cultivate over 90% of theirs.

    The Africans don't need food, they need foreigners with enough smarts and organization to grow it.

    When the Commies took over the Ukraine it ceased to be The Breadbasket of Europe. When the Africans took over Zambia and Rhodesia, they ceased to be The Breadbasket of Africa.
  19. @Anonymous
    Steve,
    Why do you think that the powers-that-be actually think it is a problem?

    I mean, just look at all those freshly minted new Labour Party voters.
    Just look at all that cheap labor - Economist editorialists are salivating already.

    automation in the near future would just make all those africans to be useless mouths to feed.

    Read More
  20. The present exodus from Africa is driven by the pull from without – i.e. Europe’s open borders and welfare benefits – rather than the push from within. There have been horrific wars and famines in Africa in the past without any surge into Europe as is happening now. If the outside world wants to check Africa’s population growth, it need only be for environmental and humanitarian reasons.

    Read More
  21. WhatEvvs [AKA "Internet Addict"] says:     Show CommentNext New Comment
    @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)
    Read More
  22. @Erik Sieven
    why not? Europeans, the european diaspora and also some Asians will invest an increasing share of what they produce to feed Africans. And people do not need much to live, at least not much in relation to the wealth Asians and Europeans are capable of producing. It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans (of course he won´t be able to find a wife and reproduce himself under those circumstances)

    Planet Earth’s arable landmass doesn’t increase geometrically, clean water is running out(more can be produced via desal, but that becomes cost prohibitive), and the wheels are starting to come off of the green revolution with new stemrot variants and some resource shortages. Of course your last line there demonstrates why what can not continue will not continue.

    Read More
  23. This is great news. At least Africa isn’t experiencing the demographic disaster/catastrophe/nightmare/bomb of zero population growth that most of the developed world seems to be. Their retirees will be very well provided for.

    Read More
  24. @PhysicistDave
    If something cannot continue, it will not continue.

    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening...

    Dave Miller in Sacramento

    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening…

    One billion emigrate to Europe, One billion emigrate to America. Maybe China gets on the immigration bandwagon, one billion there too.

    Read More
    • Replies: @Rob McX

    One billion emigrate to Europe, One billion emigrate to America. Maybe China gets on the immigration bandwagon, one billion there too.
     
    Don't forget Israel - I'm sure it'll take a million or two.
  25. It’s funny, I was reading lately about a Harvard-educated white environmentalist who said he and his wife had moral qualms about having a child. He doesn’t realize that the best hope for the planet is in people like him reproducing. As far as I can see, non-whites don’t give a damn about the environment except for economic reasons. The global environment would be safer with a world population of 10bn that’s 10 per cent white than with 5bn that’s zero per cent white. Other races will happily raze every forest, poison ever rivery and kill every last animal reputed to yield some kind of aphrodisiac from its corpse.

    On the other hand, it’s also white science and financial aid that have fuelled the population explosion in the Third World. Every penny of aid given to Africa should be conditional on population control and reduction, the figures to be collected and checked by the donors, not the recipients. Even if Europe closes its borders to people coming from Africa, the population explosion there will destroy the natural environment.

    Read More
  26. @Hippopotamusdrome


    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening…

     

    One billion emigrate to Europe, One billion emigrate to America. Maybe China gets on the immigration bandwagon, one billion there too.

    One billion emigrate to Europe, One billion emigrate to America. Maybe China gets on the immigration bandwagon, one billion there too.

    Don’t forget Israel – I’m sure it’ll take a million or two.

    Read More
  27. @PhysicistDave
    If something cannot continue, it will not continue.

    The population of Africa will not be 4.0 billion in 2100.

    As to what will stop that from happening...

    Dave Miller in Sacramento

    I’m thinking strategically located KFCs with trap doors in front of the entrances will play a part in the solution.

    But seriously, we will shut our borders long before then, and quite possibly repatriate. It is common knowledge that virtually every white country has an immigration problem. Popular newspapers discuss Islamic concepts that once were esoteric. There is nowhere left to flee. 10 years ago far right parties were marginalized. Now they are booming. It does not take an Einstein to work out where things will be in 2025. Certainly attitudes will be significantly to the right of where they are now, and policy too.

    Read More
  28. Africa is desperately under-populated and in great need of immigration. Did you know that there are large regions that are so uninhabited that Pleistocene megafauna still roam free?

    Take a country like Germany that is experiencing a catastrophic demographic collapse and is desparately seeking large quantities of immigrants from wherever it can get them. They have a population density of a sparse 591 per square mile. Most African countries have densities much lower than that, and need immigration even more than Germany.

    African countries population density as a percent of Germany’s:

    Medditreanean:
    Egypt — 39%
    Libya —– 2%
    Tunisia – 29%
    Morocco 33%

    Red Sea:
    Sudan –7%
    Ethiopa 4%
    Somalia 7%
    Eritrea- – 22%

    Gold Coast:
    Guinea —– 19%
    Liberia —– 16%
    Ivory Coast 31%
    Ghana —— 5%
    Nigeria —- 85%
    Cameroon 19%
    Gabon —— 3%

    Central Africa:
    Angola —— 7%
    Zambia —- 8%
    DR Congo 13%
    R Congo — 6%
    Tanzania – 22%
    Uganda — 67%
    Kenya —– 34%
    Central African Republic 3%

    Countries bordering South Africa:
    South Africa 19%
    Namibia —— 1%
    Botswana —- 2%
    Zimbabwe — 14%
    Mozambique 13%
    Madagascar 15%

    Read More
  29. Indeed. Well said. But two points.

    1. Since about 1970, when economists were bribed into dropping the traditional Malthusian/ Riccardian/ Millian/ Keynesian etc. view of demographics (because cheap labor), the ‘experts’ have kept claiming over and over that the third world population explosion was going to stop, and they were all going to become rich. And every decade these predictions are false, and every decade they make the same old predictions over and over without any reference to their past wrong predictions.

    It’s obvious that all those old predictions that population was going to stabilize were lies, designed to reduce opposition to policies aimed at maximizing populating growth, and thereby lowering wages for the many and increasing profits for the few. It’s a classic propaganda trick to defuse opposition to a policy by claiming that it’s going to solve itself soon so we don’t need to stop it…

    2. Birth control for Africans? Sure, but that’s not the real issue. It’s government policies that are mostly at fault! For example, the Ivory Coast used to be one of the most prosperous nations in africa, the rich imported massive numbers of muslim refugees, doubled the population, and created so much misery that the nation was torn apart in a civil war (and no, immigration does not just move people around, it maximizes it. Letting the surplus population of an overpopulated nation escape to a richer nation lets that many more people back home survive… And then there is the factor when you replace a population whose fertility rate is 2.0 with one that is 6.0, well…)

    And South Africa! The government there used massive immigration to nearly quadruple the population in the last two generations. Forget what you read in the MSM, the average south african was mostly protesting immigration, not apartheid! Sure there is now a black majority government, but cheap labor knows no color, and the government is continuing to import massive numbers of immigrants to drive wages down and there are protests from the native blacks…

    Immivasion. It’s not just for white Christians any more. It’s for anyone that wants to make more than a subsistence level wages.

    The black South Africans and Ivory Coasters didn’t need birth control – they needed an immigration moratorium… Sound familiar?

    Read More
  30. anonymous says:     Show CommentNext New Comment

    What’s been the deadliest war in the world since WWII? Why, that would be the Second Congo War:

    “…also known as the Great War of Africa or the Great African War, and sometimes referred to as the African World War…

    …began in August 1998 …officially ended in July 2003 …hostilities have continued…

    …The deadliest war since modern African history, it has directly involved nine African countries, as well as approximately 20 separate armed groups. By 2008, the war and its aftermath had caused 5.4 million deaths, principally through disease and starvation, making the Second Congo War the deadliest conflict worldwide since World War II.

    And, unless you follow those sort of things, it hardly made the news. Or a ripple.

    It’s kind of funny in a not-so-funny way that apparently nobody, even the UN, really has any good statistical idea of what happened. It have may been a million, it may have been 6 million… but… Africa…

    Read More
  31. @Hippopotamusdrome
    This is great news. At least Africa isn't experiencing the demographic disaster/catastrophe/nightmare/bomb of zero population growth that most of the developed world seems to be. Their retirees will be very well provided for.

    That made me laugh out loud. Well done.

    Read More
  32. @WGG
    There is only one solution: quarantine. We can try other methods to help them with birth control, but they will probably mostly fail. That's why quarantine must be in place.

    Crispr/CAS9 or their successors. You may not even know anything happened until a decade or two after the vector was released.

    Read More
  33. @Daniel Williams

    It is possible that one Japanese or French guy can feed 10 Africans ...
     
    Not unless they can eat iPods. There is a finite amount of food and clean water that can be produced elsewhere and shipped to Africa.

    Bags of rice won't cut it when the entire village can use their phones to see what meals look like in Italy.

    According to the UN, Africans only cultivate 20-30% of their arable land. The Chinese cultivate over 90% of theirs.

    The Africans don’t need food, they need foreigners with enough smarts and organization to grow it.

    When the Commies took over the Ukraine it ceased to be The Breadbasket of Europe. When the Africans took over Zambia and Rhodesia, they ceased to be The Breadbasket of Africa.

    Read More

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