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Trump & Sanders and the Still-unmentionable Corrupt Bargain

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From the NYT:

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Voters Share Anger, but Direct It Differently
By JOHN LELAND JAN. 30, 2016 COMMENT

DES MOINES — They are angry at a political system they see as rigged. They feel squeezed by immigration, or the power of big banks.

It’s interesting how unthinkable it still remains to use in that sentence about immigration and big banks “and” instead of “or.”

They sense that America is heading in the wrong direction, but emphatically believe only their candidate has the strength and vision to change things.

The voters driving two of the more remarkable movements of this election cycle — for Donald J. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders — share striking similarities. Both groups are heavily white, more male than female, and both are fueled partly by people who, in interviews, express distrust of their parties and the other candidates, especially Hillary Clinton.

… The two movements have significant differences: Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one) and those with lower incomes, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll in December.

Mr. Sanders draws strong backing from younger voters and self-identified liberals, and 43 percent of Sanders backers are at least college graduates, the same survey showed.

I heard from a young person at a very liberal college, who said judging from Facebook feeds, that among “normal people” in that milieu who publicly express a preference for a candidate, just about all favor Sanders. The only Hillary enthusiasts are gay white males.

“They’re younger, they’re proud of being liberals, and they like Senator Sanders personally,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Trump and Sanders voters are the likeliest among their parties to be “angry” at Washington, according to the Times/CBS News poll, with 52 percent of Trump backers and 30 percent of Sanders backers identifying that way….

The targets of their anger diverge. Mr. Trump’s supporters directed their wrath toward career politicians, unlawful immigrants, terrorists and people who they said were taking advantage of welfare. Mr. Sanders’s supporters assailed big banks and economic inequality.

The notion of a high-low team-up against the middle remains one of those ideas that are looming just outside the realm of the thinkable. It’s too useful.

Mr. Sanders’s supporters tended to blame the campaign finance system for Washington dysfunction; Mr. Trump’s supporters blamed the politicians who they said cared only about donations.

“Look at our health care,” said Sean Bolton, 42, of Norwalk, a Trump supporter who once voted for Barack Obama because of similar promises of independence. “Who do you think wrote those laws? I guarantee it was the insurance companies and drug manufacturers of the world.”

… Both camps include many people who have not been active in the Iowa caucuses before, or previously supported the other party.

Are Trump supporters going to jump through all the hoops required to participate in the peculiar Iowa caucuses? How much of a ground game does Trump have in Iowa? Any? Is Trump going to wind up looking like Carson Palmer in the NFC conference championship game last Sunday heaving the ball 30 yards downfield on every play? But do you still need a ground game in an era of social media when it’s technologically easier to get detailed instructions out to the interested?

The two candidates have not shied from appeals to anger. Mr. Trump said recently that he “will gladly accept the mantle of anger.”

Even as he said he would compete to attract Trump voters, Mr. Sanders distinguished his message from Mr. Trump’s, saying the Republican candidate is “using it to scapegoat minorities.” Mr. Trump said he would cool his tone once the campaign battles were over.

Interesting.

Another one of those ideas looming just outside the realm of the thinkable is that for the Democrats to import ringers from abroad to win elections, which Democrats have boasted about throughout this century, is a shameless example of political corruption. This is especially true when the Democrats are more or less explicitly making a deal with the Republican donor class: You Republican plutocrats immediately reap the economic advantages of immigration to your net worths, we Democratic politicians later reap the political advantages of their children’s votes.

Talk about a Corrupt Bargain!

But almost nobody quite has the conceptual vocabulary to think about this yet.

 

122 Comments to "Trump & Sanders and the Still-unmentionable Corrupt Bargain"

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  1. Epigone has some data on the ground game: http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2016/01/trumping-conventional-wisdom-on-ground.html

    Initial impressions:

    1) Campaigns are investing far less in traditional ground games. Santorum had the smallest ground game last time and it is still looking bigger than the top dog in Iowa this time.

    2) Trump is a wild outlier. Last time, the amount of contact tracked with the polling. This time, it is a similar story, except Trump is punching way above his contact profile.

    3) Polling in these things is much better than the chatterati pretend. The Howard Dean myth says he collapsed on caucus day, but in reality he collapsed in the previous weeks. The real story that year was Kerry surging above his polling.

    The DMR poll comes out tonight. That’s usually been a good gauge. I’ve figured Trump for a third place finish, but his ploy to skip the final debate may turnout to be brilliant.

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  2. This is especially true when the Democrats are more or less explicitly making a deal with the Republican donor class

    It’s the same class, Steve.

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  3. The two movements have significant differences: Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one) and those with lower incomes, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll in December.

    Lets say Hillary supporters are more likely to have college degrees. Exactly what kind of degrees are these? Degrees that qualify you to squat in a gov’t funded SJW NGO? To draw a Federal paycheck while doing nothing useful? To work in the the k-12-college bureaucracy? To get a diversity officer job? To teach woman’s and black studies at some junior college? I am saying that many of these Hillary voters degrees are in advanced paper shuffling and are only for females, minorities, gays etc.

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  4. Anonymous
    says:
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    “Two Degrees Of Separation: Marco Rubio To Infamous Gay Webcam Ring”

    https://www.queerty.com/two-degrees-of-separation-marco-rubio-to-infamous-gay-webcam-ring-20160129

    One line of investigation has led to an after-hours 1990 arrest with a man named Angel Barrios in a public park well-known for gay cruising.

    And while it’s completely speculative to suggest the two were there to get frisky — though Trump supporters, as you can imagine, are salivating at the chance to cast Rubio as a closeted homosexual — there’s no guess-work needed in connecting Barrios, decades later, with one of the most notorious gay porn rings in Florida’s history.

    But let’s start with what we know about the arrest.

    On May 23, 1990, an 18-year-old Rubio was with Barrios and another teen at Alice C. Wainwright Park after dark when they were detained. “People went out there to smoke illegal substances, have sex, drink,” a police spokesman told the Post in a story published last Friday.

    The teens were booked that night around 9:30 p.m., though the misdemeanor charges were later dropped. Rubio and Barrios went on to share a townhouse while Rubio attended Santa Fe Community College.

    Fast-forward fifteen years, and Rubio is sworn in as speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, reflecting his meteoric rise in the state’s Republican party.

    During that time, Barrios worked in property management. In 2007, he had his own experience in the spotlight when it was revealed a house owned by his family was being used by a website called CocoDorm.com as a gay porn webcam location.

    Dozens of muscular black and Hispanic men lived at the house, earning a $1,200 monthly payment plus room and board to have their lives recorded. Scheduled orgies were mandatory.

    Following the report, the City of Miami sued Barrios for illegally running an adult business in a residential area.

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  5. “Trump’s Iowa ground game”

    As opposed to Ted Cruz’s great Iowa ground game, e.g.:

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/30/unbelievable-ted-cruz-campaign-sends-out-personal-shaming-letters-to-iowa-voters/

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  6. Iowa isn’t the end all and be all. Just ask Huckabee and Santorum who won that state. For Trump it’s getting the necessary delegates to cinch the nomination. We”ll know more after SC to see what sort of game he has.

    As for Trump popularity, he’s the people’s middle-finger aimed at the pasty faced white elite on Wall Street and the Beltway that have ruined the country over the last 30+ years. He’s also done a great job exposing the phony distinctions between left and right in the political arena – there isn’t any. Both support race replacement, eradication of the middle-class, perpetuation of a a permanent political ruling class, etc.

    His best work so far is to show how much the GOP establishment hates the guts of ordinary white Americans and what they consider important. I knew since GHW Bush the buggers running the party were a mean and rotten lot always promoting agendas that hammered the working class like a steam hammer on a anvil, then running and wrapping themselves in BS social issues to hide their contempt for the base. With Trump they couldn’t do that since he doesn’t play their game, it forced them out in the open to show their contempt for America and it’ s people. Now a lot of people want them do drop dead.

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  7. This is a good way of looking at the Trump phenomenon, imo:

    Trump Plucked The Populist Apple

    Trende, whom Dreher is quoting, sees it as traditionalists versus cosmopolitans and highlights the fact that the Republican Party has been run by cosmopolitans “managing” large numbers of traditionalist voters. What Trump has done that is different from the other candidates is to articulate the positions of those traditionalists rather than meekly acquiescing in their delegitimisation.

    This accurately represents my own experience of late C20th/early C21st US sphere conservative politics (it’s the same here in England). The anger comes from the dishonesty and betrayal, and the demand for actual representation.

    I’m not as familiar with the ins and outs of leftist politics, but Trende seems to suggest the Democrat elites have just ejected traditionalists wholesale from their party structures and no longer even pretend to represent them. Certainly the similarity between the Trump and Sanders dynamics seems only superficial. Those leftist student Sanders supporters certainly don’t sound like angry traditionalists, nor does Sanders really seem to represent traditionalist views in any way.

    I’m hoping for Trump v Sanders, anyway. It would be great watching the “conservative” hierarchy forced to chose between the two – a Republican opportunist who at least understands traditionalist concerns and has gone out of his way to disrespect the hierarchy versus a socialist cosmopolitan.

    Mr. Trump said he would cool his tone once the campaign battles were over.

    I’ve said this all along. Just because he clearly understands the concerns of traditionalists doesn’t mean he actually agrees with us. He’s a politician now, and the essence of democratic politics is dishonesty. But he’s still the only game in town, in truth, because the cosmopolitans have been too good at excluding and suppressing any possible conservative traditionalist candidates, for decades.

    If it’s Trump v Clinton then the anti-establishment stance will continue to serve Trump superbly well. If it’s Trump v Sanders, something completely different might be needed.

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  8. It’s interesting how unthinkable it still remains to use in that sentence about immigration and big banks “and” instead of “or.”

    one of the best sentences you have ever written.

    Thou Shalt Not Mix Left and Right Ideology. That is The Law.

    If mixing of left and right ideology occurs, unspeakable horrors will come to pass. Hitler will rise again. Dogs and cats sleeping together.

    • Agree: slumber_j
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  9. Are Trump supporters going to jump through all the hoops required to participate in the peculiar Iowa caucuses? How much of a ground game does Trump have in Iowa?

    Trump’s ground game is holding mass rallies at least three nights a week. This way he is in effect shaking hands with thousands each night he speaks. He provides visible moments, connection and engagement to a mass of people. At 69 Trump is too rich and too old to go begging door to door and to suck up to farmers and other people at coffee klatschs and luncheonettes.
    Trump likes protesters to come so he can mock them as they are ejected. Shows he is the Big Man.

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  10. I heard from a young person at a very liberal college, who said judging from Facebook feeds, that among “normal people” in that milieu who publicly express a preference for a candidate, just about all favor Sanders. The only Hillary enthusiasts are gay white males.

    Ha! Never noticed this until now but can confirm.

    It was also the case in 2008; the only vocal Hillary supporters I can remember were all gay white guys.

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  11. OT: what is the deal with RedState? Almost every other article over there is a bash of Trump. One contributor went as far as to say he’d vote for Hillary if Trump was the candidate. Even the comment section is anti-Trump. All I can think of is that this site is owned lock stock & barrel by the donor wing of the Republican Party.

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  12. Anonymous
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    !Jeb! has the strongest ground game in Iowa by far. Feel the youthful vigor and vitality powering his campaign there:

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  13. It’s interesting how unthinkable it still remains to use in that sentence about immigration and big banks “and” instead of “or.”

    Nice catch. That’s what Ezra Pound called a luminous detail, and what the French call an apercu, I believe.

    Trump and Sanders instead of Trump or Sanders is a theme I will say with a full throat RUN WITH. Steve doesn’t know this, but he’s very influential, yes indeed is he. One of the best points he’s ever made deserves the status of an antique cliche, and headline occasions can turn it into a trope: on second thought, bring back class warfare. Because it is so much saner than inviting race baiters to caucus with you for fun. Not to mention smarter— within reach is my The Essential Galbraith.

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  14. OT: Can Cruz really be this tone deaf? http://journal.ijreview.com/2016/01/252498-said-undecided-iowan-received-controversial-mailer-ted-cruz/

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  15. Anonymous
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    According to a recent Reuters poll, both Sanders and Hillary poll better than Trump in a matchup, with 12 and 10 point leads over Trump, respectively:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-bloomberg-idUSMTZSAPEC1SOOMWHP

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  16. And on the point of the similarities between US sphere countries as they have spiralled around the plughole during the late C20th/early C21st, I bet some of this sounds very familiar to American readers:

    David Cameron calls on David Lammy to investigate race bias in UK courts

    Announcing the appointment of Lammy, the son of Guyanese parents who was brought up near the Broadwater Farm estate, prime minister David Cameron said the review would address “possible sentencing and prosecutorial disparity”. He added: “If you’re black, you’re more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university. And if you’re black it seems you’re more likely to be sentenced to custody for a crime than if you’re white. We should investigate why this is and how we can end this possible discrimination.”

    At present BAME individuals make up over a quarter of prisoners, yet are only 14% of the wider population of England and Wales.

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  17. This really is the quintessential iSteve post. Really sums it all up (or most of it at least).

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  18. The strength of both campaigns reflects the fact that a lot of people have (correctly) lost faith in the people at the top of both parties. I wonder how much the image of a Clinton/Bush race drove that–it certainly showed off the immense self-dealing and aristocratic ambitions of the ruling class.

    I have no idea if either man will get his party’s nomination. But I expect this will scare the hell out of the party elites (both sides). I also expect we’ll see a consensus at the top that various rules need to change to avoid having this kind of upstart campaign happen in the future.

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  19. White, heterosexual, liberal males have a big problem with Hillary. These guys have a huge emotional investment in being thought of as good people. Therefore, every time Hillary lies and does so ineptly, she drives them up a wall. They either have to defend her using her own idiotic lies, which makes their listeners laugh and mock them, or they bolt to Bernie, and by and large they’ve bolted to Bernie.

    Hillary also slams WHLM (pardon the acronym) in the competence gene exactly if she’s taken a hammer to their big toes. She screwed up health care when she had the chance, she screwed up Benghazi, and she screwed up and exposed top secret information due to her email ineptitude. She really, really, doesn’t seem to get why she needs to bother about this silly ‘whole national security thing,’ with her emails, or understand that in the case of Benghazi, she can’t wait for the cavalry to save the situation, she, as Secretary of State, WAS the cavalry. She keeps acting like she’s expecting a competent man to do her job for her.

    WHLMs are just cringing about Hillary. No way are they going to vote for her.

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  20. In the unlikely event that both men win their respective nominations I think everyone will be surprised at how similar their views are on foreign policy and economics. They are both mildly isolationist, both for “fair trade” tariffs, and both are immigration restrictionists.

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  21. Steve, I think there is theoretical and historical precedent for the Top+Bottom v. Middle dynamic, though not in exactly those terms.

    I’m thinking first of the various ancient tyrannies in which the tyrant nearly always united with the people, typically what Machiavelli would call the “lower plebs” (and we would call the “underclass”), against the nobility. The analogy isn’t exact because there really wasn’t any “middle class” in the ancient world until maybe the 1st century A.D. in the Roman empire. But by then they “tyranny” was well established and had become the legitimate government. And the emperors did base their rule on the people for a couple of hundred years, until the military became so powerful that they had to switch their allegiance to the soldiers (this is all laid out in Prince 19).

    The other difference is that I can’t think of any alliance between and aristocratic or oligarchic class with the lower plebs against some middle. It was always one man–king, emperor or tyrant–who relied on the people. Even in the proto-Italian republics of the late Middle Ages and early Renaissance, I can’t think of an example of “the great” uniting with the plebs. If anyone else can, please post.

    But I think the basic theoretical framework is the same. Rule has to have a basis. “In every city, these two diverse humors are found, which arises from this: the great desire to command and oppress the people, and the people desire not to be commanded or oppressed.” That’s it at the subatomic level. In reality of course, you can subdivide the various groups in various status layers and it’s not quite that simple. But at the core, the tyrant appeals to the people’s hatred of the great.

    If I may stretch the analogy a bit, we may be seeing the same dynamic at work with Trump. The billionaire oligarchs are of course the great. The “people” are the American blue collar and middle classes. The underclass are in effect the soldiers of the great. Trump is acting as the avenger of the people against the great.

    No, I’m not saying he’s a tyrant, but the dynamic does appear to be similar.

    I do also think that if our oligarchs are repeatedly successful at fending off challenges to this arrangement through legitimate means (i.e., voting), their grip on power will eventually be ended by means that are not wholly legitimate but are no less political. They are our Bourbons and my rough guess is that it feels like, oh, about 1785 outside.

    • Agree: BB753
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  22. Be patient … they’re still trying to figure out how to spin it out in a way that they have plausible deniability about being iSteve (a/k/a Planet X) readers.

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  23. There is a simple solution to the divide between the white left and the white right.

    Take this story from the UK:

    White Left wants to live in a nation where whites are the minority. White Right wants to live in a nation where whites are the majority.

    Okay, then how about this? All white leftists move out of UK and go live in Africa, Asia, or Arabia. They will become instant minorities of blacks, browns, yellows, etc. The will get what they want right away. As for white rightists who stay in UK, they will have their white majority nation. They will get what they want.

    So, both sides wins.

    If white leftists want to become a racial minority, they don’t have to try to make it a reality in the UK. They can have it instantly by moving to non-white nations. There’s no need for immigration of non-whites into the UK. All that is necessary is white British emigration to non-white nations.

    With immigration, it will take decades before UK is majority non-white. But if whites move to Africa, Asia, or Arabia, they will become minorities instantly. So much easier!

    So, how about the white-right-stay and white-left-leave policy for the UK and other European nations.

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  24. My recollection is also that Sanders is one of the more restrictionist democrats in the race, which seems confusing to many journalists but makes sense to him.

    I suppose I’m a bit late on the Oscars thing, but I gathered some data to evaluate your claim that nominations are roughly in proportion to the black share of the population here.

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  25. I suspect that the huge size of Trump’s rallies will translate to a very good “ground game” in Iowa.

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  26. Your conclusion is 100% correct – the Dems know they are picking up huge numbers of future voters/clients of the social welfare system and the Chamber of Commerce is happy at the drag on wages for entry level and unskilled jobs. In neither case does either party give a damn about Americans who are determined to work but whose economic position is ever more precarious.

    Whenever I say this at The Atlantic I get slammed as a racist or conspiracy nut (or both)…however, back in my youth I worked for Dem congress critters and the advantages of mass illegal immigration with eventual legalization to the party were openly discussed in inter-office staff meetings on this subject. The answer to why the Dems and CoC GOPers support this is so obvious and in front of the public’s face that most refuse to believe it.

    • Agree: Jim Don Bob, Jacobite
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  27. Perhaps the error that finance/accounting people are most famous for is only counting the quantitative and ignoring the qualitative, knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing. Often finance types ascend to the top of corporations. Their success is due to their avarice. “How can I get most wealthy as quickly as possible?” is the question they routinely pose. They find the answer by examining each line in the profit/cashflow statement and balance sheet, both directly and via ratios.

    It is fortunate that these Spergy “power gamers” of the corporate world have invariably taken at least a semester of microeconomics, because without that they would not be armed with the powerful concept of homo economicus – the fungibility of people. Homeconomicus has done for HR and the bottom line as interchangeable parts have done for mass production. Mexicans, Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis etc. are the interchangeable widgets of the white HR world. Whoever they are, they just slot right in to the Eurospheric corporation! Thanks to the miracle of homo economicus everyone has identical levels of ability, conscientiousness, corruptness, criminality, and so on and so forth.

    Now, it is true that when discussing Comparative Advantage that Mexico may have a comparative advantage in the manufacture of say, T shirts, while the US has a comparative advantage in the production of advanced military hardware. We don’t know why exactly this is. Maybe it’s the weather, or the laws of Mexico that make it thus. This question is never properly asked or answered. If they were exposed to iSteve, they would of course know that this phenomenon is due to Magic Dirt.

    This is as close as economics class gets to the realization that the homo economicus concept is mostly bollocks, but they just invent some epicycles and the class moves along. After all, it is such a beautiful theory and I guess if we changed it we’d be accused of racism or eugenics or some such and there would be picket lines of useful PC idiots outside the lecture hall.

    So in my view this explains a lot of the enthusiasm of the “high” contingent for the high-low pact against the middle.

    Of course, the actions of the “high” in wanting more and cheaper labor is not going to lead to a stronger, better overall country. It will lead to malaise and ethnic conflict. People are in the most part not fungible. Sure, for Agrarian businesses cheaper labor may be better for those who run these businesses, but it is at the expense of the country. They should be known as the Benedict Arnolds they are. It is nice to see these sorts be singled out for opprobium by Trump.

    In the gaming world, obnoxious “power gamers” who destroy the community and gaming experience for the sake of winning at any cost are dealt with either through changing of the game mechanic or various house rules and attitudes. Obviously in the corporate world there is still room for power gaming types who ruthlessly compete with each other to build better products and services, but there needs to be some restraint in certain areas, either internally or externally applied. Chivalry, Geneva convention, the idea that there are some things that are “just not cricket”.

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  28. Are Trump supporters going to jump through all the hoops required to participate in the peculiar Iowa caucuses? How much of a ground game does Trump have in Iowa? Any?

    Let me try to explain this, but blood and soil Iowans should jump in.

    Starting in 2016, the caucus site voting that was previously a non-binding poll becomes the binding method of selecting delegates.[6] Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites.

    That’s from wikipedia and what’s in bold is historic, if you know anything about how the iowa caucus has historically been run ,though really the right word is evolved. This mandate from the RNC changes everything that was inside-baseball about Iowa before, the psychology of the the thing lets say. Who “won” Iowa previously did not matter, because it was merely a straw poll. There was a four phase process that culled delegates and took several months til determinations of who actually voted at the Republican National Convention were made, determinations based on persuadability in front of about fifty people–the guy who stood up at the firehouse is who elected himself into the process. But the mandate makes Iowa like every other state. Except for one thing: patience.

    You have to sit there at the sites for like five hours before you vote and listen to the self-elected nominee delegates, so you have to really want to vote if you’re even going to get up and actually go vote. Tends to be a lot of retirees early in retirement, the type of folk they interview for 15 seconds in Iowa diners every year on TV. They are the slower folk and they know who each other are.

    Or they did, till the RNC made a process into a contest. Which probably bodes well for Trump, we may imagine much to the chagrin of the RNC insiders who concocted the change beforehand. As if stars were aligning.

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  29. Third place? Say WHAT???

    With all the major and statewide IA polls showing him to win? Come on. They all can’t be that blatantly off base for two months plus.

    Maybe it was a shrewd move of Trump to include Santorum at his event. At one level, it can be said that Trump is not-so-subtly asking for Santorum’s delegates/caucus members to switch and support him instead. Also it is good to see that unlike Cruz, Trump does support IA’s ethanol subsidies which can only help the state with good paying jobs.

    Realistically, if he and Sanders both get their supporters to turn out in massive numbers than both candidates can expect to win. But admittedly primaries are much easier to call ahead of time (for the most part).

    What seems to be going in Trump’s favor is that his support is among non-college educated whites as opposed to Sanders’ majority support of college educated whites. Contrary to myth, the majority of adult whites did not attend college, so basically most of Bernie’s support is coming from ticked off SWPL yuppies. And there simply aren’t enough of them in sheer numbers compared to non-college educated whites.

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  30. Regarding the bargain:
    The other night on the Path of Light we had a yuge lovefest for Wolverine Theodore Kaczynski (which of course excluded approval of his violent and counterproductive crimes).
    The main thing securing this sentiment was his elegant diagnosis of liberal hypocrisy regarding little brown brothers who need our help.
    Kaczynski goes straight to this forbidden topic of “liberal elites” or an “ostensibly anti-establishmentarian establishment” and destroys it without any physical danger to anyone.
    His metaphor of the Cabin Boy is essential and invincible.
    I pick up excellent books that I should read, but fail to consume before they become relevant, any maybe someone here has beaten me to it. Perfectly good political books get associated with particular circumstances and forgotten. I ran across Christopher Lasch’s Revolt of the Elites in a used book shop, having never heard of Lasch. It looks from the cover like Lasch gets into the philosophical and historical heart of this problem while clearly talking about our own present day Californian billionaire magnate hippies.
    I will read this and endorse or condemn it more intelligently later, but thought maybe someone already knows Lasch (who was apparently a known and respected socio-political commentator when Revolt was published).

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Revolt-Elites-Betrayal-Democracy/dp/0393313719

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  31. The two movements have significant differences: Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one) and those with lower incomes, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll in December.

    Mr. Sanders draws strong backing from younger voters and self-identified liberals, and 43 percent of Sanders backers are at least college graduates, the same survey showed.

    In other words we can dismiss Trump and his supporters because they are ignorant.

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  32. That’s a close second in stupidity to Kasich’s Kemp remark. Of course, it might get bumped down to third with Jeb standing in a donut shop drive thru. If it wasn’t for the suit, you would have thought he was a pan handling bum.

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  33. “Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one) and those with lower incomes.”

    The longer you’re exposed to academia, the more Kool-Aid you drink.

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  34. 3rd place finish huh? Please tell me you don’t do political blogs for a living.

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  35. “They sense that America is heading in the wrong direction . . . ”

    Yeah, but they don’t sense that it’s been like that ever since 1787, when the banksters’ tentacles signed the constitution. A third of the men abstained, having “smelt a rat”.

    Arguments about giving Medusa a face-change operation leaves the snakes intact. It’s like that argument between the boys in “Stand By Me” about whether Mighty Mouse or Superman could kick the other’s ass. One boy says, approximately, “You dumbass! Superman’s a real guy!”

    Voting is a sop.

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  36. “…Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one) and those with lower incomes…”

    As I keep telling people, if you were running for student council president in high school, would you run a smart campaign and go for all the “A” student votes, or would you rather have all the “C” students vote for you? Since 75% of Americans were “C” students in high school, I think the answer is obvious. That’s the smarter campaign. That’s the Trump campaign.

    The bright kids who realize that there is more than one kind of smart will catch on.

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  37. Sanders has terrible ratings from just about every immigration-restriction group. He is a social democrat and basically still holds the views he did as a liberal in the 1960s.

    Which ironically means he doesn’t hate the white working class, and in fact actually wants to help it by redistributing income. Remember, one of the verses in ‘We Shall Overcome’ which later fell out of fashion was ‘black and white together’–it was the old left-wing dream of uniting the black and white working classes in a coalition against the corporate masters.

    But if you don’t get that visceral sensation that he hates your people–he doesn’t. Whether you believe his chosen remedy will be helpful is another question.

    I actually do think limiting the ability of the rich to sway elections through campaign finance reform and, yes, heavy taxation would bring the country in a more nationalist, socially conservative, and economically liberal direction, since the rich tend to be globalist (international business connections), socially liberal (since they have the money to offset the negative effects of sex and drugs, they don’t need religion), and economically conservative (they have the dough, they want to keep it). The Democrats would be less EMILY’s list and more AFL-CIO, the Republicans less Club for Growth and more Southern Baptist Convention.

    But I am in the minority.

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  38. >>The only Hillary enthusiasts are gay white males.

    It’s that tragic diva thing. Just wait, there will be an off Broadway musical in a few years.

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  39. Anonymous
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    The corrupt bargain is aimed at stifling any rise of national socialism or communism, which are represented by Trump and Sanders, respectively.

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  40. French history has a fair amount of king & bourgeois against aristocrats, especially in the 17th Century. A more adept Louis XVI in 1789 might have revived that coalition, but he failed to.

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  41. “Mr. Trump attracts support across a wide spectrum of demographic groups, but is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one). . .”

    This sounds misleading. What’s the catch?

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  42. Trump’s always done better among proles. Look at his style–he got filthy rich and slaps gold foil on everything.

    Of course, you can interpret that as ‘he is representing the interests of the working class’ rather than ‘he is supported by people too stupid to know any better’, but the NYT doesn’t like him.

    I don’t trust him, but I’m happy at least the GOP leadership will know they have to do something for the white working class now. To me Trump the man is less beneficial than what he represents, and what he will hopefully force the party leadership to do. Trump himself is a scam artist, IMHO.

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  43. My comments are not intended to make you feel good about your choices. I am simply looking at the data in historical context.

    The very reliable DMR poll is out and it is Trump 28 Cruz 23 Rubio 15. That looks like a solid Trump win, but Selzer tends to miss when she under counts Christian voters so Cruz would benefit and he has the best team in the field. On the other hand, other polls have shown Evangelicals breaking to Trump. Falwell did not endorse by chance. maybe Trump wins going away.

    Regardless, Red Team is having a stroke tonight.

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  44. David and Charles Koch aren’t in the same sphere as Tom Steyer. The Dianne Feinsteins of the world are actually an anomaly in the political process.

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  45. In that poll, Ted Cruz does worse than Donald Trump

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  46. Don’t forget that Hillary polls significantly better than Sanders among Blacks. I think Bill Clinton appealed to Blacks because of his “Big Man” personality, and a lot of that goodwill has rubbed off onto Hillary. Hillary has also spent a lot more effort cultivating relationships with Black community leaders.

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  47. Now that Kasich has been endorsed by the NYT who gets his voters?

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  48. Well, well, well, the DMR has TRUMP winning IA. By 5pts. The poll has plus/minus margin of error 4. So either way, TRUMP is ahead.

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  49. Good question, especially since the white gays are all in Hillary’s column.

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  50. Absolutely. That’s exactly the point I was going to make.

    I’ve been saying for months, how long until people catch/media admit on that Sanders-Trump vs. Clinton-Bush was ultimately the same contest: the nativists against the globalists?

    In that regard, the globalists appear set to lose on both score-cards. Not overly surprising as it’s the same question being asked of the same people (in broad the sense: American public), just worded differently.

    So, as much as the media estate wants to cast it as immigration or banks, it really is (and the public is showing it recognizes it as such) immigration and banks. In which case, the question is not political ideology (or more correctly identity — scandalous to consider), since Trump & Sanders are two sides of the same coin, but skill and accomplishment.

    Look for Trump to clean Sanders clock once the question reaches its logical conclusion of managerial competence. (Trump will see to it that it does.)

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  51. this is too much. (south of the)borders on cruelty.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaALnrCVIAA91pV.jpg

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  52. anonymous
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    D*&&n! 50 years of “screw you guys, who else are you going to vote for?” and they finally get surprised when the plain old heritage American white people don’t acquiesce? Maybe they really aren’t so sharp.

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    “The comb over creep who hates women – and I should know: SELINA SCOTT reveals how Donald Trump failed to seduce her… then stalked her for 20 years”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3424519/The-comb-creep-hates-women-know-SELINA-SCOTT-reveals-Donald-Trump-failed-seduce-stalked-20-years.html

    Even by the extraordinary standards of Donald Trump, it was a creepy chat-up line.

    We were at 30,000ft on Trump’s private jet flying to Florida, when he showed me his white leather double bed. ‘I like beautiful things,’ he purred seductively. ‘That’s why I like you so much.’

    This was just one of many revealing and excruciating moments during the two weeks I spent with Trump in 1995 while making a 60-minute profile of him for ITV – a fortnight which started with a charm offensive, but ended in bitterness, recrimination and intimidating letters that only stopped when I threatened legal action.

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  55. And/or, who/whom

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  56. If it came down to a Trump versus Sanders contest Trump can position himself as the common sense moderate versus the dogmatic, impractical socialist.

    This is what centrist English-speaking politicians like Lloyd George did in the early 20th Century. It worked well for a time, but the socialists overcome the populists after WWI. There’s probably an important lesson their for populists and moderate nationalists – don’t combine populism with an aggressive foreign policy.

    Meanwhile the progressives media seems to have moved on from calling Trump voters uneducated white trash to calling them psychologically unbalanced authoritarians:

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-2016-authoritarian-213533

    When leftist professors start dusting off their copies of The Authoritarian Personality you know they’re getting desperate.

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  57. Don’t forget Hillary’s many lesbian fangirls. Maybe it’s only the old ones.

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  58. Not only is she losing WHLMs, her campaign and supportees have become so shrill about the mythical #berniebros bad behaviour that they are driving off liberal women as well.

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  59. The no-show debate catapulted Trump from 3rd to first, despite being in first in virtually all polls of IA, can you pass whatever you’re smoking?

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  60. FWIW, I’m here in eastern Iowa, which is solidly Democrat territory. I can’t see Hillary winning. I know campaign signs and the rest are not the same as polls, but I see Bernie stuff everywhere. In the affluent areas, in the non-affluent areas. If I see anything Hillary-related, it’s a worn-down 12 month old bumper sticker that’s endured a year of weather.

    Not much going on with the Republican primary. This was the one part of the state that Romney did well in last time around. Still some Carson signs from when he was surging. I do see Trump signs, as well. But overall, the ratio of random Democrat signage versus Republican signage is probably 5:1.

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  61. As I told the other guy, I’m not trying to make you feel good about your choices. I’m just looking at the data. The DMR poll is very good news if you are a Trump voter. Still, his lead is not so big that you should be buying party hats.

    538 has a good peice on the DMR polls: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-final-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-is-out-how-accurate-will-it-be/

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  62. Gay men seem to identify with powerful, evil white women in a bizarre “You go, girl!” kind of way. “She may be a b@#$h, but she’s fabulous!”

    For example:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dad-son-halloween-costume-cruella_us_563a1ab1e4b0411d306ef1ce

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  63. at 25:25 Bill Clinton demonstrates that he fully understands the effect of birth rates, demographic on political borders when applied to Ireland

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  64. Oh, they’re sharp. They just got blindsided from an unexpected direction. The best-laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley, as a Scot (not Irish) wrote.

    Trump’s a black swan event–or a gold swan, perhaps more fittingly.

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  65. That’s spot on for certain. You know that Hillary’s campaign is in serious trouble when the likes of WHLM extraordinaire Camille Paglia hates her guts and refuses to endorse her. Heaven knows what photographer Annie Liebowitz thinks of her. Not a good sign when Hillary can’t turn out her own base.

    “Come on guys! We’re all in this together! Don’t you want the first woman supporter of GLBQT etc. president?”

    “Yes, but not YOU. And for goodness sakes, stop with the emails already!”

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  66. …for the Democrats to import ringers from abroad to win elections, which Democrats have boasted about throughout this century

    The potato famine didn’t take place in this century.

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  67. the likes of WHLM extraordinaire Camille Paglia

    Camille Paglia is a radio station in Indiana?

    But then, it would be just like her to push the Stones in Cole Porter’s hometown. Anything goes.

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  68. is strongest among Americans without a college degree (eight of 10 Trump supporters do not have one). . .”

    This sounds misleading. What’s the catch?

    The catch is that seven out of ten Americans do not have a college degree. So Trump is doing just a bit better among those without a college degree than would be expected by pure chance, and a bit worse than would be expected by pure chance among degree-holders. Leftists will use this fact to signal that Trump voters are uneducated dum dums.

    Given what we know about the income value of a college degree, if trump were a democrat, the media would praise him for his appeal to lower-income voters.

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  69. … and basically still holds the views he did as a liberal in the 1960s.

    And had to move to Vermont to do so. A neocon is a liberal who’s been mugged, and nobody is mugged in Vermont. Except by black flies.

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  70. Camille loves Cole.

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  71. Also it is good to see that unlike Cruz, Trump does support IA’s ethanol subsidies which can only help the state with good paying jobs.

    Even better for good-paying jobs (and votes) in Iowa is to mandate that everyone in the other 49 states put that ethanol into their gas tanks, just like you do.

    I live next door to Iowa and have never seen anyone use one of those E-85 tanks. You just have to put a gun to their heads.

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  72. So basically Trump is The Mule from Asimov’s Foundation series?

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  73. From my perspective, authoritarians are at least as common on the left as on the right.

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  74. My comment has a good chance of being poorly informed (I do not live in the U.S., and haven’t followed the campaign too closely), but there it goes. Beyond the issue of immigration and financial oligarchies, I see a big difference between Sanders and Trump, which is the difference between the honest Left and the honest Right. Sanders is going to be soft on crime, because he (and generally the Left) thinks it is only a matter of leveling the inequalities, which he is certain he will achieve. Trump on the other hand will not be soft on crime, because, while he (at least in discourse) also believes in leveling the inequalities (perhaps not as much as Sanders though), he is not foolish enough to think this will solve the short term crime problem (and perhaps not even the long term one). So, the question every voter has to ponder is: after the mess that Obama has made when he publicly demoralized the police, is it possible for a newly elected president to revert the situation or will any attempt to do so cause a civil war?

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  75. Trump, Sanders And The Still-Unmentionable Corrupt Bargain Between Plutocrats And Dems | VDARE - premier news outlet for patriotic immigration reform
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  76. I’m sorry, but in the post-Clinton era, what with all the bimbo eruptions, some decades old “he said, she said” stuff isn’t really gonna make a dent of difference. After all, Trump isn’t running as the moral values candidate. And Hillary can’t really bring it up either without getting whacked with “Oh yeah? How about Bill? Look what you did to cover up his stuff and some of it while he was in the White House!”

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  77. Jeb would look right at home behind a hot dog vendor’s cart.

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  78. What is Cuban for a “guido”? It looks like Rubio will get the Snooky vote.

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  79. will any attempt to do so cause a civil war?

    Not if the rebels are as incompetent as the Bundy’s.

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  80. What is it with the Hoosiers? Hoagy Carmichael too.

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  81. But almost nobody quite has the conceptual vocabulary to think about this yet.

    That can’t really be true, because I heard a defensive anti-Trump republican mention that he had faced just this criticism a few days ago. He never would have brought it up – and he did bring it up unprompted – if only one or two “cranks” had gone after him about it.

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  82. You have to sit there at the sites for like five hours before you vote and listen to the self-elected nominee delegates…

    In Minnesota’s caucuses, which come a month after Iowa’s, the DFLers stay till the wee hours of the morning because the single-issue people demand “consensus”. I’ve been attending Republican caucuses since at least 1988, and have never seen this happen with us.

    No matter how strongly we disagree, everybody knocks off at 9pm sharp, the goody-goodies (likely evangelicals) going home to family, and the rest of us retiring to a local watering hole to gab for a couple more hours. Politics just isn’t that important to Republicans, even low-level functionaries. To Dems, it’s their life blood.

    Incidentally, all our voting in caucuses has been done on little slips of paper. I still don’t know whether this is very good, or very bad. Fraud may be possible, but it would be open to exposure. Electronics? Hell if I know…

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  83. The deal between the Liberal establishment and the Neocons is well classified as a rogues’ alliance.

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  84. What is it with the Hoosiers? Hoagy Carmichael too.

    And James Hanley, and the von Tilzer brothers, and Paul Dresser (Theodor Dreiser’s brother), and Ned Rorem, and so on. Indiana is something else.

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  85. Jimmy McMillan, “Rent Is Too Damn High” Party founder endorses Trump.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/267600-rent-is-too-damn-high-party-founder-endorses-trump

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  86. his ploy to skip the final debate may turnout to be brilliant.

    Inasmuch as Cruz broke under pressure. I have to admit I probably underestimated Trump’s IQ. I’m ready to give him a 130, up there with Hitler. (I think it’s the mass-leadership sweetspot.)

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  87. I’m sorry, but in the post-Clinton era, what with all the bimbo eruptions, some decades old “he said, she said” stuff isn’t really gonna make a dent of difference. After all, Trump isn’t running as the moral values candidate. And Hillary can’t really bring it up either without getting whacked with “Oh yeah? How about Bill? Look what you did to cover up his stuff and some of it while he was in the White House!”

    Exactly. I read the story, the timing of which, one day before the Iowa caucuses, is interesting. Look at how much energy Trump has now, pushing 70. He probably was constantly trying it on. It’s no secret that he considered himself a player. He’s also known for holding a grudge. He didn’t go after her because she spurned his advances; he got mad because she played up to him for two weeks to do a documentary which he assumed was going to be somewhat flattering, and which instead trashed him. I’m skeptical of her exact-word memory of conversations, 20+ years after the fact. And spare me with the “dark heart of the American psyche.”

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  88. Don’t Cry For Me, America?

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  89. when the Democrats are more or less explicitly making a deal with the Republican donor class

    No big discovery there. Republicans and black Democrats regularly team up to gerrymander the states not touching Canada. America doesn’t have a parliamentary system so it was inevitable that the two default options would become overextended beyond recognition instead of just disbanding or renaming themselves which is what happens in other countries.

    This attempt to find a similarity between Trump and Sanders is weak, reminiscent of the comparisons of Tea Party rallies and the Occupy Zuccotti rasta drum circle. Sanders represents what Obama, Hillary, and Jon Stewart consider the ideal platform, with only quibbling about its seaworthiness. You cannot say that about Trump and Paul Ryan. People in journalism determined to analogize two things, by hook or crook, will always find a vague basis to do so.

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  90. It’s always interested me to wonder, in the American scene decade to decade, if more cranks are found on the Left or Right. I think the growth of academia & the decline of good ol’ boys out on the farm has shifted the balance decisively leftward for now, but of course a lot depends where one places the Libertarians (who are functionally on the Right at present but after a fashion claim to belong to some sublimated ubercategory beyond it)

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  91. To me Bernie seems like a severely less polished version of Jed Bartlett from “The West Wing”

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  92. Ethanol is widely used to oxygenate gas for the “summer blend” in smog prone areas.

    E85 is actually an excellent racing fuel, especially for turbo cars.

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  93. The AFL-CIO has a spectacularly good study of the working class and why it loves Trump so much.

    http://workingamerica.org/frontporchfocusgroup

    Among those Democrats who chose a candidate, Trump was the top choice for a quarter of them. However, some in this group switched back and had a Democrat as their second choice. One man from Ohio liked Trump, but his second choice is “that old guy, Sanders.” Another voter said, “if not Trump, then Hillary.”

    Immigration was the top issue for only 5% of all those canvassed, but for Trump supporters it was the third–most-important issue (cited by 14%), after good jobs/the economy (29%) and homeland security and terrorism (21%). Voters for whom immigration is the priority issue are often Trump partisans (48%), but overall, those who prioritize immigration are a relatively small number.

    Party loyalty did not determine candidate choice as much as expected. Of Trump partisans, 58% said they would support him even if he runs as an independent. Additionally, a small number of Trump supporters were considering a Democrat if Trump doesn’t end up on the ballot.

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  94. Camille Paglia is neither heterosexual nor male. She is sort of an equivalent in that she’s one of the few (prominent) lesbians who doesn’t hate men.

    (There are plenty of ordinary lesbians who go about their business and don’t hate anyone, but the way the feminist movement developed pretty much meant ‘out’ lesbians were going to be associated with its most radical wing. I predict we’re going to see a lot of ‘out’ lesbian Republicans in a few decades.)

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  95. I know plenty of WHLMs…they like Bernie but will vote for Hillary to avoid President Trump.

    Partly because they think Trump is racist, partly because they think he might fly off the handle and start a nuclear war with Russia or something similar.

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  96. You’re better off.

    If it’s electronic, who writes the source code? Is it open source? If you see the code and you watch it compiled and placed onto the computer, who’s to say someone didn’t sneak in and change it between when you watched it and when the votes were counted?

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  97. Yes, but not because of his strength–obviously.

    There’s some truth to that in that he manipulates the media more effectively than most politicians. The Mule was finally taken down by superior telepaths, but I think Trump’s just going to lose the general election to Hillary Clinton.

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  98. Occam’s razor is that he’s going after her because he wants to be President, and she’s the #1 person standing in his way.

    What’s actually going on behind the scenes with those three is anyone’s guess.

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  99. Well, yes. Though I think he probably had some lefty idea about building the perfect society in the woods at the time.

    If you have a homogenous society (and are Scandinavian), socialism works. Vermont’s not a bad place. I don’t know if it scales, though.

    I’m not expecting Bernie to bring about the new socialist land of milk and honey. But I do think his taxes could kick the globalist elite in the nuts–and maybe give the working and middle classes a fighting chance.

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  100. DES MOINES — They are angry at a political system they see as rigged. They feel squeezed by immigration, or the power of big banks.
    [...]

    It’s interesting how unthinkable it still remains to use in that sentence about immigration and big banks “and” instead of “or.”

    Since at least the 1980s the political class has told us that feeling squeezed by immigration is an embarrassing character flaw typical of unsuccessful Whites. These low-status Whites can atone for their sin by cheering on the big banks. Feeling squeezed by the big banks is another character flaw typical of unsuccessful Whites. It, in turn, can be forgiven as long as the White in question does lots of cheering for mass immigration.

    Feeling squeezed by big banks or mass immigration is forgiveable, feeling squeezed by both is anti-Semitism.

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  101. My girlfriend was ready to die when we were at a party back in ’08 and I said Hillary was going to lose because her only support was Fags & Hags. Everyone was aghast until the two gays there, both center-left, said I was exactly right. Funny things was both were against Obama because they felt he was carrying his time in Indonesia with him and was basically a homophobe.

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  102. Exactly. Like how she claims that Diana told her “He gives me the creeps.” And she had no room to talk either. Like, is this journalist our equivalent of Kitty Kelly? She’s beginning to sound like it.

    The timing is quite suspicious. A journalist virtually unheard of in this country and we’re supposed to think her word is gospel. This has all the earmarks of a Conservative Inc. smear job, or a Cruz smear job. Thing is, if they want to go down that road and play that game, Trump’s people can then dig up tons of incidents around the same time frame where he comes across as helping others, donating to charities, fighting for the underdog, etc while basically being an all round good guy.

    No one is stating that Trump’s support is because he’s the Bible Belt’s version of a saint. He never claimed to be. But if they want to make his alleged misogyny the issue, he can simply show all the women that he promoted in business to executive levels when no one else would. If they persist in making this an issue, all he has to do is make Hillary and ultimately Bill Clinton as the issue. “You want to talk sexism? Let’s talk about sexism, let’s have that conversation. Think about what was going on in the Oval Office in the late ’90′s with a helpless 21yr old intern!”

    By the way that was a smart move of him taking out his mother’s bible and placing his hand on it with “I will never let you down.” Very clever and makes for brilliant caucus maneuvering.

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  103. Iowa isn’t the end all and be all. Just ask Huckabee and Santorum who won that state. For Trump it’s getting the necessary delegates to cinch the nomination. We”ll know more after SC to see what sort of game he has.

    Some SC establishment bigwig just endorsed Trump. Meaning, respectable types here (i.e., primary voters) now have permission to vote for him.

    According to a recent Reuters poll, both Sanders and Hillary poll better than Trump in a matchup, with 12 and 10 point leads over Trump, respectively:

    Let’s see how long that lasts, if Trump gets the nomination. He’s got a lot of time between now and the general to bloody whichever gets the Democrat nomination. We’ll see how much of that difference is people still pulling for someone other than Trump to get the nom, for one thing.

    Still don’t know how cankles gets elected if FBI agents are going on Fox talking about how they had Hillary cold and Obama wouldn’t prosecute.

    a fortnight which started with a charm offensive, but ended in bitterness, recrimination and intimidating letters that only stopped when I threatened legal action.

    This one should be believed.

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  104. Partly because they think Trump is racist,

    Literally stupid.

    partly because they think he might fly off the handle and start a nuclear war with Russia or something similar.

    LOL! Voting for Clinton out of fear that another candidate might start a war with Russia is pretty much the definition of stupid as well.

    Your WHLM friends aren’t too bright it seems.

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  105. I’ve been saying for months, how long until people catch/media admit on that Sanders-Trump vs. Clinton-Bush was ultimately the same contest: the nativists against the globalists?

    How does Sanders get to count as “nativist”?

    It’s a serious question, because I’m reasonably familiar with the Republican candidates and Clinton is a known quantity but I genuinely don’t know much about Sanders. What I’ve heard doesn’t suggest anything other than another leftist cosmopolitan type, just with added anti-bankster credentials for the lefties. Being supposedly anti-globalisation is no use to anyone if you still pretend opposing mass immigration is the equivalent of National Socialism and that normalising homosexual activity is an equality issue and anyone opposing it is a monster.

    Are there any nativists left in the Democrat Party?

    As for Trump, well he’s certainly saying what nativists want to hear, but I’m not sure I’d regard him as one himself. Quite the contrary. The point is that having a plausible candidate who at least doesn’t acquiesce to the active delegitimisation of nativist concerns is by far the best the nativists have been allowed for decades. The cosmopolitan elites haven’t managed to shut him down in the media as they usually would, because he’s too rich and too loud.

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  106. There’s some hope Trump might call a halt to the US’s aggressive interventionist foreign policy consensus of the past two decades, so he might escape your second paragraph trap. Not guaranteed by any means, but there seems no hope at all with any of the other plausible candidates, Rand Paul having committed political suicide over the Iran nonsense.

    I don’t know all that much about Sanders, but it does seem from what I’ve heard that Sanders carries a lot of socialism baggage that should give Trump plenty of ammunition, and the grudging support of some at least of the Republican oligarchs presently relentlessly hostile towards him. Whether he can keep his current traditionalist, anti-establishment support on board at the same time seems questionable….

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  107. Trump has the one quality that is essential in a mass media democracy. He knows how to troll the unhinged wing of his opposition. He will say something and you will call him Hitler. Normal people see that and think, “compared to that lunatic hooting about Hitler, Trump is not bad.”

    Obama has used this skill to set the GOP on fire for seven years. Bush was too dim to really know how to manipulate people this way. Clinton never really mastered it like Obama and now Trump, but he could do it on occasion. He needed a particular type of stooge as a foil. Newt was perfect, but Hastert was too busy chasing boys to play the game.

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  108. I still can’t understand why gay men like her. I believe it, just don’t understand. I guess I can’t put myself in their shoes. Wasn’t she about the last Dem to go all in for SSM? I thought they pretended to care about stuff like that?

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  109. Talk about over-under.

    Remember Leonard Bernstein’s fundraiser for the Black Panthers that Tom Wolfe wrote about in “Radical Chic?” Wolfe called it “nostalgia for the mud.” Hilarious.

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  110. Uh, yeah. Hm….all thirty of them, huh?

    You do know that lesbians are only about two percent of the US adult population, right? Point being, that’s one of Hillary’s main voting blocs and if some of ‘em are dissenting and not all gung ho about voting for her, well, she gonna be in big trouble. I mean, just by total number there are more Evangelical family values voters than lesbians. Come on. And Hillary doesn’t own the black vote the way Obama did. She will definitely carry it, about 85-90%, but that’s near ten percent lower than what Obama got both times he ran. She doesn’t really have a base she can appeal to. What, “Girls, vote for me cause I’m a woman!” That’s not gonna fly, and there’s no guarantee that Hillary will carry the majority of the woman vote just because she pandered to them, especially with the specter of nearly being indicted by the Feds for illegal emails. Also, if you haven’t noticed, Hillary and strong health have been kinda strangers the last couple of years.

    What can Hillary offer women voters in general? What? Abortion? Birth control? Honestly. There’s nothing she can offer them if she gets elected. Nothing.

    The moderate middle of the road soft Democrat really has no compelling reason to vote for her, and no reason not to vote for Trump. She should be having kittens that 20% or more Democrats would consider voting for Trump over her, and that’s a core constituency of Dems.

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  111. The problem with letting a computer collect and count votes is how you’d know if the computer gave you the wrong totals. There are really clever tricks for doing that, but the only widely used way you see is to make the voting machine print a summary of your votes on paper in front of you, or to have you mark your vote on paper and have the computer count it. That lets people do a random sampling of the paper ballots and check them against the electronic totals.

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  112. I suspect the interesting story wrt black voters this year will be turnout–the democrat will get almost all of their votes, but I suspect a lot fewer black voters will be interested enough to show up and vote for Hillary or Bernie than for Barack.

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  113. If we get into a serious war (aka not just bombing peasants’ mud huts in hellholistan) it will be via a miscalculation, likely driven by stupid posturing by us and/or Russia/China. I don’t know how I’d even start to guess which candidates are most likely to trigger that. Hillary is pretty hawkish, but probably not crazy enough to intentionally start something with Russia.

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  114. I meant we would see them in everyday life, and gays and lesbians would be less bound to the Democrats, not that lesbians were going to be an important part of the Republican coalition. There aren’t enough to really swing the vote one way or the other, and they will probably be Democrats for the next few years.

    I suspect the odor of racism around Trump will cost him a lot of middle-of-the-road votes. Trump’s tax plan favors the rich. And, of course, the Democrats can dig up all those tweets with him gassing Bernie Sanders and so on to convince people he’s a fascist. They haven’t yet because they want him to win the nomination because they think they can sink him.

    Of course, I’m not sure she can defeat him. I’m not sure of anything anymore. I didn’t think he could get as far as he’s gotten, and he proved me wrong. The only thing I do think is that you may be underestimating how not-right-wing a lot of the country is.

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  115. I never said they were. And it might not be an issue to you or anyone here, but the ‘racist’ thing bothers a lot of people. Just because white people are sick of anti-white racism doesn’t mean most of them are ready to turn around and be prejudiced against Mexicans either.

    Besides, Trump hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a great business manager–how many bankruptcies? Remember the steaks? Trump University? the board game?

    All these things are going to hurt him with people who don’t think immigration is #1. A lot of people are pissed off about that, true, but a lot of people are worried about jobs and losing their Obamacare.

    He has a lot of advantages in the general–he’s socially liberal and from the Northeast, which gives him a wider appeal by making him look more ‘moderate’. He could throw upstate New York into play, causing the Democrats to hemorrhage money on the New York media market to increase turnout. And he could certainly poll strongly in Ohio and Pennsylvania with the white working class people there.

    Just saying, most people don’t hate Hillary as much as people on right-wing blogs. It’s like the guys who think Bernie Sanders can start a political revolution.

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  116. I never said they were. And it might not be an issue to you or anyone here, but the ‘racist’ thing bothers a lot of people. Just because white people are sick of anti-white racism doesn’t mean most of them are ready to turn around and be prejudiced against Mexicans either.

    Surely, you know as well as anyone that prejudice is unintentional. Everyone is ready to be prejudiced against Mexicans. Or anyone else.

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  117. TRUMP STEAKS!!!
    Hard to believe but Donald Trump had a scheme for selling the “world’s best steaks” in Sharper Image stores. Remember them? Did Trump steaks ever get off the ground?

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  118. In other breaking news, Santa Claus is not real. Come on man, who doesn’t know that Erickson and his ilk are capital E Establishment. Next you’ll express shock that National Review opposes Trump

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  119. And it might not be an issue to you or anyone here, but the ‘racist’ thing bothers a lot of people. Just because white people are sick of anti-white racism doesn’t mean most of them are ready to turn around and be prejudiced against Mexicans either.

    The point is not that racism isn’t a problem (though the term is about as meaningless as the other favourite catch-all of political abuse “fascist”, covering as it does everything from having a normal preference for living in a familiar community to wanting to murder everyone whose skin is a slightly different shade).

    The point is that only an idiot would think Trump is meaningfully “racist” in any condemnable way, merely because he suggests there is a problem with mass immigration or with muslim immigration.

    Just saying, most people don’t hate Hillary as much as people on right-wing blogs.

    Hating or not hating her is one thing. Thinking she isn’t a blood-stained warmonger who has been up to her elbows in the policies of murderous interventionism and of provocation and aggression towards Russia, is what is genuinely stupid. She is probably the main figure in the regime responsible for the internal sabotaging of the Obama regime’s “reset” policy with Russia, though getting actual on the record evidence of such is inevitably impossible.

    But Americans are, in general, ignorant of foreign affairs and certainly unaware of just how culpable most members of their governments of both parties have been in causing wars over the past couple of decades.

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  120. Polls show that among likely Republican caucus voters, Cruz’s campaign has contacted the most, followed by Rubio and then by Trump. The correlation between support and campaign contact is almost perfect once Trump is removed (.98, p-value = 0). He is the wild card.

    It’s worth noting, however, that “ground game” looks to be much less important in ’16 than in ’12. In ’12, 72% of likely voters said they’d been contacted by Ron Paul. Santorum, who won the thing, contacted 37%. Cruz, in contrast, has only contacted 25%. Both polls were conducted a week out, so that’s not the differentiator.

    Trump’s and Sander’s utilization of social media is politically unprecedented, of course, and feels a lot more like the future than the quaint, expensive, and putatively intrusive traditional activities that constituted ground game.

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  121. Wolf in Donkey’s Clothing | The Mitrailleuse
    says:
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    […] really did. Like Russell Arben Fox, I thought he was a “front porch socialist,” which is a fine alternative to the corporatist war-hungry sleazebags who mostly make up Congress. Socialism might be unworkable […]

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  122. Correlation between SAT/IQ & where you went to college | Pumpkin Person
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    […] disagree.  It means a lot.  It’s very very important”  I wonder what Trump’s 80% non-college base would think of […]

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